Fed Unanimously Approves Shift on Inflation Goal, Ushering in Longer Era of Low Rates – WSJ - The Federal Reserve unanimously approved on Thursday a new strategy that will effectively set aside a practice it has followed for more than three decades to preemptively lift interest rates to head off higher inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell unveiled the updates in a speech set for delivery at a virtual symposium on Thursday, the most ambitious revamp of the Fed policy-setting framework since it was first approved in 2012. The practical effect is that it may be a very long time before the Fed considers raising interest rates. Mr. Powell said the changes reflected lessons the central bank officials had learned in recent years about how inflation didn’t rise as anticipated when unemployment fell to historically low levels. “It reflects our view that a robust job market can be sustained without causing an outbreak of inflation,” said Mr. Powell. The Fed had been moving in this direction over the last 18 months, a point made clear in early 2019 when officials abruptly abandoned plans to continue lifting interest rates. Mr. Powell initiated a policy-setting strategy review in late 2018, motivated by the sobering probability that central banks around the world will face greater difficulty than in the past to spur growth due to low levels of interest rates. The coronavirus pandemic-induced recession brought those challenges into stark relief. The Fed cut its benchmark rate twice in March to near zero from a range between 1.5% and 1.75%, and it has bought trillions of dollars of government assets to stabilize markets. The Fed enshrined the conclusions of its yearlong strategy review on Thursday by formally approving a revamp of the central bank’s statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy. Mr. Powell secured agreement on those changes from all 17 officials who participate in the Fed’s rate-setting committee deliberations. For years, the Fed justified plans to slowly withdraw stimulus by warning that waiting too long to do so could provoke an acceleration of price pressures, particularly as the unemployment rate fellow below a level estimated to push prices higher, sometimes referred to as the natural rate of unemployment. The new statement approved Thursday said decisions to raise interest rates would be guided by shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, rather than saying they would be guided by deviations. In other words, the Fed signaled that it wouldn’t raise interest rates simply on the basis of a forecast that inflation will rise, but instead would wait to see evidence that inflation was at the central bank’s 2% target.
Powell’s Fed shifts to more relaxed approach to fight inflation - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced a new approach to monetary policy Thursday that takes a more relaxed stance on inflation and on its view of how low U.S. unemployment can go. Powell said the Fed will seek inflation that averages 2% over time, a step that implies allowing for price pressures to overshoot after periods of weakness. Its shift on maximum employment will allow labor-market gains to run more broadly. “Our revised statement emphasizes that maximum employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal,” Powell said in a speech delivered virtually for the central bank’s annual policy symposium traditionally held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “This change reflects our appreciation for the benefits of a strong labor market, particularly for many in low- and moderate-income communities.” During the longest U.S. economic expansion on record until the pandemic hit earlier this year, many groups benefited — including minorities and women — in their ability to find work. With unrest breaking out across the U.S. over racial inequality, questions about how the Fed’s policy helps communities broadly have been raised. In its new statement on longer-run goals, the Fed said its decisions would be informed by its assessment of “shortfalls of employment from its maximum level.” The previous version had referred to “deviations from its maximum level.” The change de-emphasizes previous concerns that low unemployment can cause excess inflation. The markets took Powell’s remarks as another indication that the Fed is in no rush to raise interest rates. Bonds and U.S. stocks rose along with gold prices. Regarding price pressures, the document says the committee will target “inflation that averages 2% over time” and will aim to bring inflation above the 2% target following periods when inflation runs below that level. The shift Powell announced represents the product of an unprecedented review of the Fed’s strategies, tools and approach to communications that began in early 2019. Since the central bank officially set its inflation target at 2% in 2012, the Fed’s preferred measure of price increases has consistently fallen short of that objective, averaging just 1.4%. Low inflation contributes to low interest rates, reducing the Fed’s ability to fight off economic downturns and potentially making them deeper and longer. Powell noted a risk, saying that “if excessive inflationary pressures were to build or inflation expectations were to ratchet above levels consistent with our goal,” the central bank wouldn’t hesitate to act. He called the changes “a robust updating of our monetary policy framework.”
Fed Chair Sets Stage for Longer Periods of Lower Rates - NY Times - Jerome H. Powell said the central bank would focus its efforts on fostering a strong labor market while tolerating higher inflation. Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, announced a major shift in how the central bank guides the economy, signaling it will make job growth pre-eminent and will not raise interest rates to guard against coming inflation just because the unemployment rate is low. In emphasizing the importance of a strong labor market and saying the Fed will tolerate slightly faster price gains, Mr. Powell and his colleagues laid the groundwork for years of low interest rates. That could translate into long periods of cheap mortgages and business loans that foster strong demand and a solid job market. ... Mr. Powell’s announcement codifies a critical change in how the central bank tries to achieve its twin goals of maximum employment and stable inflation — one that could inform how the Fed sets monetary policy in the wake of the pandemic-induced recession. The Fed had long raised rates as joblessness fell to avoid an economic overheating that might result in breakaway inflation — the boogeyman that has haunted monetary policy ever since price gains hit double-digit levels in the 1970s. But the Fed’s updated framework recognizes that too low inflation is now the problem, rather than too high. .
Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Monetary Policy Framework Review --From Fed Chair Powell: Monetary Policy Framework Review: Federal Open Market Committee announces approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. This is on YouTube here.
Fed’s Elevation of Employment Goal Reflects a Changed World –Greg Ip - With the revamp of its monetary policy framework, the Federal Reserve has subtly but clearly shifted its priorities away from inflation to employment.The practical significance is small. With inflation already below the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment above 10%, interest rates were going to stay near zero for some years to come, and that hasn’t changed.But it’s an important institutional and philosophical shift. Like other pivots over the central bank’s 107-year history, this one comes in response to a changed world.Central banks have long operated on the assumption that there is a trade-off between employment and inflation. As the unemployment rate drops below some “natural” level, inflation starts to rise, a relationship dubbed the Phillips curve. That means unemployment could be both too high or too low. The Fed in its old operating principles thus sought to minimize “deviations” of unemployment from this natural level. In practice, this meant the Fed had to both estimate the natural rate and raise interest rates if actual unemployment threatened to fall below it.The new framework replaces “deviations” with “shortfalls,” implying unemployment can be too high but never too low. Two factors have driven this. The first is that the Phillips curve has flattened since the early 2000s. As unemployment fell to 50-year lows in the last year, inflation also stayed low. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell explained that the change in wording“may appear subtle, but it reflects our view that a robust job market can be sustained without causing an outbreak of inflation.”The second factor is that many countries are suffering from persistently low growth and low actual and expected inflation, which tend to pull down interest rates over time. That’s a problem because if interest rates are low in normal times, central banks have less room to cut them in bad times.“We have seen this adverse dynamic play out in other major economies around the world, and have learned that once it sets in, it can be very difficult to overcome,” Mr. Powell said. “We want to do what we can to prevent such a dynamic from happening here.”This makes it critical that inflation not fall persistently below 2%. That’s why Fed officials have now decided to target an average inflation rate of 2%. If inflation runs below 2% for several years, it should run above 2% for several years as well. This is harder than it sounds. With a flattened Phillips curve, even getting unemployment below its natural rate isn’t guaranteed to boost inflation. But it’s the only lever Fed officials have.
Mission Creep at the Fed – WSJ - In a much-anticipated speech this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to lay out a new framework for meeting its often-elusive goal of 2% inflation. When he’s done, he should keep his jacket on, because a proliferation of other missions await. Full employment and low inflation are no longer enough. In recent years the Fed has been asked to prevent financial crises, shrink the trade deficit, tackle climate change and, now, eliminate racial economic disparities. Mission creep poses real risks. The Fed is being asked to meet goals for which its tools are poorly suited and often in conflict. The killing of George Floyd, a Black man, in police custody earlier this year precipitated an intense examination of economic racial disparities. Last month Joe Biden, now the Democratic presidential nominee, called for amendments to the Federal Reserve Act requiring it to “aggressively target persistent racial gaps in job, wages, and wealth.” Congressional Democrats then unveiled a bill charging the Fed with eliminating “racial disparities in employment, wages, wealth, and access to affordable credit.” The bill won’t go anywhere while Republicans control the Senate, but that could change if Democrats take both chambers of Congress and the White House in November. The Fed already influences racial disparities indirectly. Since the 1940s unemployment has always been higher for Black people than white people but the gap widens in recessions and narrows during expansions. This was especially apparent in recent years, before the coronavirus pandemic. As labor markets became historically tight, employers began hiring people they may have previously overlooked because of criminal records, lack of experience, disability, or discrimination. Last year, as overall unemployment hit a 50-year low of 3.5%, the gap between Black and white joblessness dropped below 3 percentage points for the first time since records began in the 1970s. Had the pandemic not intruded, the gap could have narrowed even further as the Fed let unemployment drift lower in an effort to push inflation back to or above 2%. This means the more successful the Fed is at achieving full employment, the more racial gaps will narrow—without any explicit mandate to eliminate them.
Does Fed already have the power to tackle racial inequality?- — Democrats in Congress have been calling for legislation to require the Federal Reserve to address racial inequality, but observers say that the central bank already has several regulatory tools at its disposal to tackle the issue. The focus on the Fed's potential role in helping right societal wrongs coincides with concerns about the coronavirus pandemic's devastating impact on minority communities, which have struggled to get access to government recuse programs. “It’s abundantly clear that the economic damage inflicted by financial crises disproportionately harms communities of color,” said Gregg Gelzinis, senior policy analyst at the Center for American Progress. “To the extent the Fed uses its regulatory authority to mitigate the chances of future financial crises through stress testing, capital requirements, liquidity rules … and the body of the post-crisis prudential rules, the benefits of that will disproportionately flow to communities of color through a reduced exposure to financial crises.” Even before the pandemic, minority-owned businesses were much more likely to be deemed stressed, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report published in April. More than 20% of Black-owned businesses were considered distressed in late 2019, compared with 5% of white-owned businesses. That classification applied to businesses that weren't profitable, had low credit scores and relied more on external financing than retained earnings to fund operations. Several bills have been introduced to address persistent economic inequality. House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters, D-Calif., and Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., introduced legislation earlier this month that would require the Fed to promote equality in employment, income and access to affordable credit when setting monetary policy and supervising banks. Doing so would add a third directive to its existing dual mandate of fostering employment and stable prices. Karen Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics, said there are a lot of moves that the Fed can make that are “possible under current law.” She suggested that the Fed consider easing its risk-based capital rule, which is aimed at maintaining a capital cushion at banks that engage in substantial trading activities. “I think we need to relook at the risk-based capital rules, which unintentionally but significantly penalize lending to lower-income households and small businesses,” Petrou said.
Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July" --Note: This is a composite index of other data. From the Chicago Fed: Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July Led by some moderation in the growth of production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +1.18 in July from +5.33 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, but all four categories decreased from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to +3.59 in July from –2.78 in June. This graph from the Chicago Fed shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index by category.. According to the Chicago Fed:The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories....A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Q2 GDP Revised up to -31.7% Annual Rate --From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate)Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 32.9 percent. With the second estimate, private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased less than previously estimated. Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up to -34.1% from -34.6%. Residential investment was revised up from -38.7% to -37.9%. This was close to the consensus forecast.
Q2 GDP Second Estimate: Real GDP at Record -31.7% - The Second Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -31.7% (-31.70% to two decimal places), a major drop from -5.0% (-4.99% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of -32.5%. Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 32.9 percent. With the second estimate, private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased less than previously estimated (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).The decline in second quarter GDP reflected the response to COVID-19, as “stay-at-home” orders issued in March and April were partially lifted in some areas of the country in May and June, and government pandemic assistance payments were distributed to households and businesses. This led to rapid shifts in activity, as businesses and schools continued remote work and consumers and businesses canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the Technical Note. [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.06% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 1.25. Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 23.1% below trend.A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.27%. All eleven recessions over this timeframe have begun at a lower level of current real YoY GDP.
US GDP Q2 2020 second reading plunged by worst-ever 31.7% -- A second reading of the U.S. economy in the second quarter reflected the biggest quarterly plunge in activity on record, though the Covid-induced plummet wasn't as bad as initially estimated. Gross domestic product from April to June tanked 31.7% on an annualized basis, according to the Commerce Department's second reading released Thursday. That was revised down from the 32.9% initial estimate of the damage the pandemic-fueled lockdowns had on the economy in the second quarter. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv had expected a decline of 32.5%. Even with the revision, it was still the worst contraction in the economy ever recorded. The drop in GDP was more than triple the previous all-time decline. The economy contracted at a 5% pace in the first quarter. The economy fell into recession in February. After-tax profits without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment, which correspond to S&P 500 profits, dropped at a rate of 11.7%. Profits decreased at a pace of 13.1% in the first quarter. When measured from the income side, the economy contracted at a 33.1% rate in the last quarter. Gross domestic income (GDI) declined at a rate of 2.5% in the January-March period. The average of GDP and GDI, also referred to as gross domestic output and considered a better measure of economic activity, decreased at a 32.4% rate last quarter. That compared to a 3.7% pace of decline in the first three months of the year.
US 2nd quarter GDP revised to 31.7% contraction - (Kyodo) -- The U.S. economy shrank an annualized 31.7 percent in real terms in the April-June period amid the coronavirus pandemic, slightly less than an earlier estimate of a 32.9 percent dive, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The contraction in terms of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which followed a 5.0 percent drop in the preceding quarter, still represents the steepest quarterly decline since comparable data became available in 1947. According to the department, private consumption, which accounts for two-thirds of the world's largest economy, dropped 34.1 percent in the second quarter, revised slightly upward from a fall of 34.6 percent. The figure followed a 6.9 percent decline in the January-March period. Nonresidential private investment, a measure of business spending, dropped 26.0 percent after a decline of 6.7 percent. Exports dived 63.2 percent after dropping 9.5 percent in the preceding quarter. Imports tumbled 54.0 percent in the second quarter against a 15.0 percent drop in the first quarter.
Q3 GDP Forecasts - From Merrill Lynch: 2Q GDP was revised up to -31.7% qoq saar in the second release. 3Q GDP tracking rose by 2pp to 19%following recent strong capex and housing data. [August 28 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 15.3% for 2020:Q3. [August 28 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 28.9 percent on August 28, up from 25.6 percent on August 26. [August 28 estimate]It is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 25% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, is about 5.7% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 5.1% from Q4 2019. The following graph illustrates this decline. This graph shows the percent decline in real GDP from the previous peak (currently the previous peak was in Q4 2019).This graph is through Q2 2020, and real GDP is currently off 10.2% from the previous peak. For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous peak.The black arrow shows what a 25% annualized increase in real GDP would look like in Q3. Even with a 25% annualized increase (about 5.7% QoQ), real GDP will be down about 5.1% from Q4 2019; a larger decline in real GDP than at the depth of the Great Recession.
We Begin the Final Act – - I see no getting out of this one. By a year from now, very likely earlier, probably with the election as catalyst, there will come extreme events. We will see monsters.I don’t know if it yet will culminate in the nuclear war we know is inevitable, but the coming tribulations will be similar in scope. In the US, the true Second Civil War, or overt suspension of the constitution and martial law with totalitarian police accompaniment, becomes ever more likely. The best outcome among those at all likely is that the US undergoes catastrophic social collapse, centrifugal violence and fragmentation. All this is beginning to happen while the Westernized globe convulses in the throes of history’s most extreme manifestation of mass insanity. Obviously the masses aren’t deranged because of Covid-19. (Covid-19 has caused nothing, anywhere.) Look at it this way: The global situation, especially that of the domestic US, is much worse than that in Europe in 1939. In 1939 no one in Europe wanted war except for a small handful of powerful men. Today in the US the great majority more or less wants war, war with Russia or China or Iran or in Venezuela or any combination of these at once. Many are rabid for war.Sure, they think it won’t affect them personally (otherwise they wouldn’t be so gung ho), which is just one of the many metrics of American stupidity. But that only intensifies their avidity.And then looming over all this is the bloody sunset of escalating ecological blowback, imminent ecological collapse and the collapse of modern civilization which must accompany it. While most remain impervious to conscious knowledge of this gathering kinesis, none can escape the rising sense of doom amid the collective unconscious. This sense indelibly sears us with the eschatology of the time, and no doubt played the primary role in heating the pressure cooker of the modern mass psychology which is catastrophically blowing off some of its steam with its ecstasy of mass insanity over SARS-COV-2. Are you ready to face death, very soon? If not I suggest preparing your mind and soul. Of course we’ll struggle to survive. But like they say, while we strive for the best we must prepare for the worst.
Coronavirus Lifts Government Debt to WWII Levels—Cutting It Won’t Be Easy – WSJ -As countries world-wide boost spending to battle the new coronavirus, government debt has soared to levels not seen since World War II.Among advanced economies, debt rose to 128% of global gross domestic product as of July, according to the International Monetary Fund. In 1946, it came to 124%. For now, governments shouldn’t worry about mounting debt and instead focus on bringing the virus under control, said Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush.“The war analogy is exactly the right one,” said Mr. Hubbard, dean emeritus of Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business. “We were and are fighting a war. It’s a virus, not a foreign power, but the level of spending isn’t the problem.” After World War II, advanced economies brought down debt quickly, thanks in large part to rapid economic growth. The ratio of debt to GDP fell by more than half, to less than 50%, by 1959. It is likely to be harder this time, for reasons involving demographics, technology and slower growth.Through the late 1950s, economies soared. Growth averaged around 5% a year in France and Canada, almost 6% in Italy and more than 8% in Germany and Japan. The U.S. economy grew almost 4% a year. “We’d be lucky to have half that over the next decade,” said Nathan Sheets, a former undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs and now chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income, the investment-management business of Prudential Financial Inc. In recent years, the U.S., U.K. and Germany have grown about 2% a year. In Japan and France, it has been closer to 1%. Italy has barely grown at all.Though vanquishing the virus could bring a surge of optimism, the post-World War II boom would be difficult to re-create. Population growth has slowed in advanced economies, the workforce is shrinking as societies age and productivity is slowing.
“The Fiscal Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Cities: An Initial Assessment” - In a paper that will appear in the September issue of the National Tax Journal, [we] evaluate the likely fiscal impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on a sample of 150 major U.S. central cities. Although we discuss the additional Covid-19 related costs that cities will face, our primary focus is on forecasting the fiscal year 2021 revenue shortfalls attributable to the coronavirus-induced recession. Based on past trends we projected FY 2021 revenues in each FiSC under the assumption that there was no pandemic (and hence no recession). For each source of revenue in each city, we then project the percentage change in revenue due to the Covid-19 pandemic under two scenarios—less severe and more severe. Figure 1 illustrates the revenue sources of the average FiSC and indicates the number of cities relying on each revenue source. The mix of revenue sources varies substantially across cities. Property taxes provide less than 35 percent of tax revenue in 8 cities, but over 90 percent of tax revenue in 20 cities. Intergovernmental revenue, from state and federal aid, make up under 20 percent of general revenue in some FiSCs, but over half of general revenue in other FiSCs. There is substantial empirical evidence that due to the way property taxes are administered, changes in the market value of real property takes about three years to be reflected in changes in property tax revenues. So, even if reduced demand for dense residential locations and particularly for central city office space declines sharply, the impact on property tax revenues won’t be felt for several years. We thus assumed that property tax revenue would either not change or would be reduced by 0.5 percent in fiscal year 2021. Local sales tax revenues fell sharply during the Spring reflecting both strong supply-side effects caused by widespread economic shutdowns as well as demand-side effects. Our estimates of the percentage shortfalls in sales tax revenues in the FiSCs utilizing local sales taxes depends on our estimates of wage declines in each city and state-specific sales tax elasticity estimates. Under our more severe scenario, the average FiSC will face a FY 2021 sales tax revenue shortfall of 11.7 percent. However, we forecast that 15 FiSCs will experience sales tax reductions in excess of 20 percent.To forecast reductions in state aid, we relied on estimates of state government revenue shortfalls generated by Moody’s Analytics and information on the size of state governments rainy day fund balances. Under our two scenarios, we predict declines in general revenue in the average FiSC of 5.5 percent and 9 percent, respectively. Under the more severe scenario, 47 FiSCs would experience revenue reductions of 10 percent or more. In dollar terms, these percentages generate revenue shortfalls of $34.2 and $55.3 billion, respectively. Expanding these estimates to all local governments in the U.S. yields aggregate revenue shortfalls of $102.9 and $165.2 billion. These are substantial cuts, which would lead to significant declines in government employment and public service provision.
New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly – WSJ - In response to the novel and deadly coronavirus, many governments deployed draconian tactics never used in modern times: severe and broad restrictions on daily activity that helped send the world into its deepest peacetime slump since the Great Depression.The equivalent of 400 million jobs have been lost world-wide, 13 million in the U.S. alone. Global output is on track to fall 5% this year, far worse than during the financial crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund.Despite this steep price, few policy makers felt they had a choice, seeing the economic crisis as a side effect of the health crisis. They ordered nonessential businesses closed and told people to stay home, all without the extensive analysis of benefits and risks that usually precedes a new medical treatment.There wasn’t time to gather that sort of evidence: Faced with a poorly understood and rapidly spreading pathogen, they prioritized saving lives. Five months later, the evidence suggests lockdowns were an overly blunt and economically costly tool. They are politically difficult to keep in place for long enough to stamp out the virus. The evidence also points to alternative strategies that could slow the spread of the epidemic at much less cost. As cases flare up throughout the U.S., some experts are urging policy makers to pursue these more targeted restrictions and interventions rather than another crippling round of lockdowns.“We’re on the cusp of an economic catastrophe,” said James Stock, a Harvard University economist who, with Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina and others, is modeling how to avoid a surge in deaths without a deeply damaging lockdown. “We can avoid the worst of that catastrophe by being disciplined,” Mr. Stock said.The economic pain from pandemics mostly comes not from sick people but from healthy people trying not to get sick: consumers and workers who stay home, and businesses that rearrange or suspend production. A lot of this is voluntary, so some economic hit is inevitable whether or not governments impose restrictions. Disentangling voluntary and government-ordered effects is hard. One study, by economists Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson at the University of Chicago, says government restrictions account for just 12% of the decline in consumer mobility in the U.S.; another, by a team led by economists Kosali Simon at Indiana University and Bruce Weinberg at Ohio State,says they account for 60% of the loss of employment.Still, because of the close connection between the pandemic and economic activity, many epidemiologists and economists say the economy can’t recover while the virus is out of control. “The virus is going to determine when we can safely reopen,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in April. The Federal Reserve said in late July that “the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.”
The Failed Promises of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) – McBride- We all remember the promises for the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA):
1) "Boost growth to 3.5 percent per year on average, with the potential to reach a 4 percent growth rate."
2) Boost business investment
3) Pay for itself (No increase in the deficit)
4) Give the typical American household around a $4,000 pay raise
Here are a few quotes from 2017:
"This change, along with a lower business tax rate, would likely give the typical American household around a $4,000 pay raise." Donald Trump, October 19, 2017
“Not only will this tax plan pay for itself, but it will pay down debt,” Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Sept 2017
“I think this tax bill is going to reduce the size of our deficits going forward,” Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA),November 2017
First, on that $4,000 pay raise, from Motley Fool: Want a Tax Cut? Here's How Much Typical Americans Saved in 2018. The analysis suggests around $1,600 to $1,900, not $4,000. And from the Heritage Foundation: The Truth About How Much Americans Are Paying in Taxes. "the average American household paid about $1,400 less in taxes"
And on GDP, the following table shows quarterly real GDP growth (annualized) from the BEA since the TCJA was signed. The average growth in the first eight quarters was 2.4% - nothing special - and definitely not the promised "3.5 percent per year on average". And basically the same growth rate prior to Trump taking office.
What about investment? This graph shows a 4 quarter average growth in Gross private domestic investment (Blue) and Nonresidential Private Investment (Red).
There was a slump in investment in 2015 and 2016 due to the collapse in oil prices, but there has been no discernible pickup in investment growth since the passage of the TCJA.
In fact, Gross private domestic investment had turned negative prior to the impact of the pandemic!
And what about the deficit? The deficit has increased sharply during the pandemic, but the deficit had already increased significantly prior to the impact of COVID-19. From the CBO December 2019 monthly budget review:The federal budget deficit was $358 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, $39 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year. Compare that to December 2017 (before the TCJA): The federal budget deficit was $228 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2018So the TCJA didn't pay for itself and caused a significant increase in the deficit. In summary, there was no discernible boost in investment (investment actually fell). No sustained increase in GDP growth. No $4,000 pay raise. And the TCJA didn't pay for itself.
The Way Out Through State and Local Aid: Bipartisan group of economists breaks down why local governments need aid now - If a bipartisan group of the nation’s top economists were trapped in an elevator with Republican members of Congress, what would they tell them about the need for state and local aid?“Towns across the country are already hemorrhaging red ink, and substantial federal aid is needed now in order to derail the worsening economic shock brought on by the pandemic.”That was the consensus among economists the Economic Policy Institute brought together recently to discuss the urgent need for state and local aid. The panel included:
- Gbenga Ajilore, Senior Economist, Center for American Progress
- Glenn Hubbard, Dean Emeritus and Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics, Columbia University
- Jason Furman, Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy, Harvard Kennedy School and Harvard University Economics Department
- Josh Bivens, Director of Research, Economic Policy Institute
- Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
Heather Long, Economics Correspondent at the Washington Post, was the moderator. Long asked each economist to provide their elevator pitch for why federal aid was so important now.“If you had 30 seconds in an elevator with a Republican lawmaker to try to convince them why we need state and local aid now, what would you say?,” she asked.Here’s what they said.
Meadows says Trump willing to sign $1.3 trillion coronavirus relief bill - White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said Friday that President Trump would sign a coronavirus relief package totaling $1.3 trillion, an increase over the $1.1 trillion proposed by Senate Republicans. “The president right now is willing to sign something at $1.3 trillion,” Meadows told reporters at the White House, saying that the figure had been offered privately to Democrats. He had previously said the White House was willing to go “north” of $1 trillion but did not offer a precise figure. He said, however, that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has stood firm in her demand for a $2.2 trillion relief package. Meadows and Pelosi spoke Thursday afternoon, resuming negotiations on the next coronavirus package that have been stalled for three weeks. Pelosi said Thursday that she offered Meadows a concession by proposing a $2.2 trillion bill, down from a $2.4 trillion offer earlier this month. "We have said again and again that we're willing to come down and meet them in the middle — that would be $2.2 trillion — and when they're ready to do that, we'll be ready to discuss and negotiate the particulars," Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol following the phone call with Meadows. The disagreements largely center over the amount in funding for enhanced unemployment insurance benefits and assistance for state and local governments. Talks between Meadows, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Pelosi, and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) broke down in early August, causing Trump to sign a spate of executive orders aimed at deferring the payroll tax, putting a federal pause on evictions and extending the lapsed enhanced unemployment benefits for a period of time. Meadows on Friday said it is “incumbent on us to act,” placing the blame on Pelosi for holding up negotiations by not agreeing to a smaller relief package that would cover areas where they have agreement.
White House suggests $1.3 trillion coronavirus aid bill; Pelosi says not enough - (Reuters) - President Donald Trump is willing to sign a $1.3 trillion coronavirus relief bill, a top aide said on Friday, but Democratic House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the sum was not enough to meet the needs of the American people. Trump said later that Pelosi was only interested in bailing out states run by Democrats, casting doubt on chances of reviving stalled talks for another round of fiscal stimulus. The new figure was put forward by White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, marking a $300 billion increase from an initial $1 trillion offer from the White House and Senate Republicans. Three weeks after talks on Capitol Hill broke down without a deal on legislation to help Americans suffering from the coronavirus pandemic, Meadows said the Republican president was “right now willing to sign something at $1.3 trillion.” Hours later, Pelosi in a statement repeated her call for a $2.2 trillion bill and said Meadows’ offer would not meet the needs of American workers and families. Pelosi said, among other things, the Republicans “are rejecting the funding needed for testing and tracing to crush the virus and safely reopen schools and the economy.” She said she hoped the Republicans would accept the Democratic offer and resume negotiations. Asked about talks between Pelosi and Meadows about another stimulus package, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on a flight to Washington from New Hampshire: “My impression is she wants to give no stimulus, all she wants is bailout for badly run Democrat states.”
Democrats and White House are at a 'tragic impasse' on coronavirus stimulus after Pelosi-Meadows call - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows failed to crack a stalemate over coronavirus relief Thursday when they spoke at length for the first time in weeks. After a 25-minute phone call between the pair, Pelosi issued a statement saying "this conversation made clear that the White House continues to disregard the needs of the American people as the coronavirus crisis devastates lives and livelihoods." She said the sides stood at a "tragic impasse" after the Trump administration again did not meet her demand to roughly double the price of its aid proposal to $2.2 trillion. "Democrats are willing to resume negotiations once Republicans start to take this process seriously. Lives, livelihoods and the life of our democracy are at stake," the California Democrat said in the statement. A spokesman for Meadows did not immediately respond to a request to comment on the call. Negotiations between Democrats, led by Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and the White House, led by Meadows and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, collapsed earlier this month amid disagreements on unemployment aid, state and local government relief, and school funding, among other issues. Congress has failed to pass a fifth package to try to combat health and economic crises created by the pandemic even after a $600 per week extra jobless benefit, a federal eviction moratorium and the chance to apply for a small business loan program expired. As Pelosi pushes for a broader approach to stimulus, Republicans are crafting a more narrow bill that they could soon distribute in Congress, sources told CNBC. The plan, which would cost roughly $500 billion, would address unemployment insurance, a new authorization for small business loans, school funding, and Covid-19 testing, treatment and vaccines.
$454 Billion Treasury Fund Goes Mostly Unused – WSJ —As Democrats and Republicans haggle over the next coronavirus-relief bill, a giant pot of money remains largely unused. In March, Congress gave the Treasury Department $454 billion to backstop aggressive new lending efforts by the Federal Reserve to distressed businesses and state and local governments. Five months later, more than half—$259 billion—is still uncommitted. The Treasury money was billed as risk capital by Trump administration officials who said at the time that it could be leveraged to support as much as $4 trillion in lending by the Fed. As of last week, the central bank had lent just $16.4 billion through programs set up with the money. “Here we are negotiating another fiscal package, and we have this money just sitting there,” said Ernie Tedeschi, a former Treasury official and economist at Evercore ISI. Frustration is growing among some lawmakers and business groups that so much money has gone unallocated at a time when Republicans and Democrats alike agree that more is needed—though they differ on how much. Sen. Mike Crapo (R., Idaho) has introduced legislation directing the Treasury to lend more aggressively. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) wants to repurpose $200 billion for long-term investments in communities of color. Fed and Treasury officials say the money has served a valuable purpose because it helped unfreeze credit markets panicked by the onset of the coronavirus pandemic early this year. They add that unused lending capacity may yet be needed if the economy takes a turn for the worse. “The extraordinary Federal Reserve response supported by Treasury’s equity capital has played a vital role in restoring liquidity and funding to credit markets, and enhancing the flow of credit to American businesses, households, nonprofit organizations, and state and local governments,” a Treasury spokesperson said in an email.
Trump says he saved 51 million jobs in pandemic. Economists, U.S. officials say otherwise - (Reuters) - Standing before half a dozen American flags during a press conference at his country club in Bedminster, New Jersey, President Donald Trump heralded what has become a central plank of his argument for re-election in November: his administration’s handling of the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. “Through the historic relief package that I signed into law, we saved over 50 million American jobs,” he said in the Aug. 15 remarks. Referring to his Democratic opponents, he said, “They don’t like these kind of numbers because they think it’ll hurt them in the election.” The estimate that the $660 billion taxpayer-funded Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) saved some 51 million jobs has been trumpeted by the Republican Party, its Congressional leadership and the president’s reelection campaign. On Monday, Trump touted it again at a rally west of Charlotte, North Carolina, site of the Republican National Convention. However, the PPP likely did not save 51 million jobs, or anywhere close to it, according to Reuters interviews with economists and an analysis of the program’s data. Half a dozen economists put the number of jobs saved by the initiative at only a fraction of 51 million – ranging between one million and 14 million. “I don’t think there is an economist who would say that the program has saved 50 million jobs,” said Richard Prisinzano, who was a financial economist at the U.S. Department of the Treasury for 13 years before leaving in 2017. His rough estimate, Prisinzano said, is between five and seven million jobs saved, based on his own adjustments to other researchers’ work at MIT and elsewhere. Officials in Trump’s own administration give varying explanations for the 51 million figure. In interviews with Reuters, officials from the Treasury Department and the Small Business Administration(SBA), which oversee the PPP program, said the 51 million refers to the total number of workers reported by businesses approved for a loan - not the number of jobs that were saved.
Exclusive: FDA commissioner disputes Trump, says no 'deep state' thwarting vaccine - (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) does not harbor “deep state” elements, the agency’s head told Reuters on Monday, rejecting criticism from President Donald Trump that staff there were trying to delay a coronavirus vaccine. Dr. Stephen Hahn said he was completely confident that FDA workers were focused solely on the interests of the American people during the coronavirus pandemic. Without evidence, Trump on Saturday accused members of the so-called “deep state” working within the FDA of complicating efforts to test COVID-19 vaccines in order to delay results until after the Nov. 3 presidential election. “I have not seen anything that I would consider to be ‘deep state’ at the FDA,” Hahn told Reuters in an interview. Trump’s use of the term “deep state” appears to refer to long-serving government employees he believes are determined to undermine his agenda. Hahn said he had a solid relationship with Trump, a Republican whose re-election chances in November have been dampened by public discontent over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Trump’s tweet, which tagged the commissioner, said: “The deep state, or whoever, over at the FDA is making it very difficult for drug companies to get people in order to test the vaccines and therapeutics. Obviously, they are hoping to delay the answer until after November 3rd.”
Trump and FDA Misrepresent Data as They Tout Blood Plasma Treatment - In a news conference on Sunday, President Trump alongside Stephen Hahn, the head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and Alex Azar, the secretary for Health and Human Services (HHS), touted the efficacy of blood plasma in treating COVID-19 as they announced its approval for a treatment. And yet, the data they cited was misrepresented and built on a shaky foundation, forcing Hahn to walk back his assertion that it was an effective treatment, a rare about-face for an agency that is supposed to be an anchor of non-partisan public trust, according to Bloomberg. In fact, just days before the FDA approved the treatment, a group of top health officials that included Anthony Fauci and Francis Collins said the emerging data on blood plasma treatments was too weak to justify its approval. Yet President Trump, who had also accused the FDA as being part of the "deep state" that was delaying treatments until after the election, touted blood plasma treatment as reducing deaths by 35 percent. The problem is, nobody knows where that number came from. As The New York Times reported, it was not found in the FDA's official authorization letter, nor a 17-page memo written by FDA scientists, nor in the Mayo Clinic analysis cited by the administration. "For the first time ever, I feel like official people in communications and people at the FDA grossly misrepresented data about a therapy," said Dr. Walid Gellad, who leads the Center for Pharmaceutical Policy and Prescribing at the University of Pittsburgh, to The New York Times. In an interview with new agencies, one of the Mayo Clinic study's main authors, Dr. Arturo Casadevall of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, expressed confusion. "Do I know where the 35 percent comes from? No," he said, as The New York Times reported. "You need to correct the 35 lives saved per 100 sick with COVID-19 so people understand that was absolutely wrong, Steve," wrote Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California, on Twitter, as Bloomberg reported. "That there is no evidence to support that. That there is no evidence at this juncture to support *any* survival benefit." As the criticism of the 35 percent number piled up, Hahn listened. He acknowledged its validity last night in a tweet. "I have been criticized for remarks I made Sunday night about the benefits of convalescent plasma," Hahn wrote. "The criticism is entirely justified. What I should have said better is that the data show a relative risk reduction not an absolute risk reduction." — Dr. Stephen M. Hahn (@SteveFDA) August 25, 2020 The treatment in question, convalescent blood plasma therapy, uses antibody-rich plasma from people who have recovered from the disease to help ramp up the immunity of sick people so they can develop their own antibodies. However, there are few randomized controlled trials to demonstrate its efficacy, according to STAT News.
Under pressure from the White House, CDC issues guidelines for less COVID-19 testing - On Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) modified its guidelines for testing for COVID-19. Previously, the CDC recommended that people exposed to close contacts of confirmed cases be tested “because of the potential for asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission.” This recommendation was changed this week to “if you have been in close contact of a person with a COVID-19 infection for at least 15 minutes but do not have symptoms, you do not necessarily need a test unless you are a vulnerable individual or your health care provider or state or local public health officials recommend you take one.” The change in guidelines has been met with a barrage of anger and dismay among various health experts and physician groups who have repeatedly stated that the key to suppressing the infection is broad, mass testing of the population. Former Baltimore Health Commissioner, Dr. Leana Wen, told CNN, “I’m concerned that these recommendations suggest someone who has had substantial exposure to a person with COVID-19 now doesn’t need to get tested. This is key to contact tracing, especially given that up to 50 percent of all transmission is due to people who do not have symptoms. One wonders why these guidelines were changed—is it to justify continued deficit in testing?” According to sources speaking to the New York Times and CNN, the order came from the Trump administration during a closed meeting without the presence of Dr. Fauci. The CDC has remained silent on providing any explanation on its sudden policy change and directed all questions to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). HHS Assistant Secretary Admiral Brett Giroir released a callous and nonsensical statement that said, “This guidance has been updated to reflect current evidence and best public health practices and to further emphasize using CDC-approved prevention strategies to protect yourself, your family, and the most vulnerable, of all ages.” Speaking later to CNN, Giroir added that the guidelines were authored by Dr. Fauci, White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx, and Stephen Hahn, head of the Food and Drug Administration. However, Fauci, who was in surgery during the meeting where the changes were approved, told the media, “I am concerned about the interpretation of these recommendations and worried it will give people the incorrect assumption that asymptomatic spread is not of great concern.”
New CDC Guidelines Say Asymptomatic People Don't Need COVID-19 Tests. That Worries Health Experts - Health experts are sounding the alarm about new testing guidelines that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued earlier this week. The CDC overhauled its guidelines and said that people who are not displaying symptoms of COVID-19 infection from the novel coronavirus do not need testing. That includes asymptomatic people who have also had exposure to the virus, according to The New York Times. The new guidelines say: If you have been in close contact (within 6 feet) of a person with a COVID-19 infection for at least 15 minutes but do not have symptoms: You do not necessarily need a test unless you are a vulnerable individual or your health care provider or State or local public health officials recommend you take one. And: If you do not have COVID-19 symptoms and have not been in close contact with someone known to have a COVID-19 infection: You do not need a test.The list of people who do not necessarily need a test is far-reaching, including people who have been in high transmission areas. According to CNN, the CDC website said previously: "Testing is recommended for all close contacts of persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Because of the potential for asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission, it is important that contacts of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection be quickly identified and tested." Health experts raised the alarm about these new guidelines, noting that people tend to be most contagious during the asymptomatic period when they first contract the virus. During that time, it is especially important to identify and isolate people who have the virus to control potential spread. The CDC even noted in its pandemic planning scenarios that 40 percent of infections are asymptomatic and 50 percent of virus transmissions take place before symptoms are detected, according to CNN. "This is potentially dangerous," said Dr. Krutika Kuppalli, an infectious disease physician in Palo Alto, California, to The New York Times. She added that narrowing the testing criteria to only people with obvious COVID-19 symptoms means "you're not looking for a lot of people who are potential spreaders of disease. I feel like this is going to make things worse." The new guidelines are a curious departure from the advice of many health experts who have said that more widespread and frequent testing is necessary to identify potential clusters. That advice is particularly resonant for vulnerable and disenfranchised communities that have had limited access to testing, but high rates of infection, according to The New York Times.
California, Florida, New York, Texas will not follow new U.S. COVID-19 testing plan - (Reuters) - Several large U.S. states are not heeding new federal health officials’ calls to reduce COVID-19 testing of some exposed to the virus, joining a broad rebuke of the Trump administration by public health leaders. Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Texas, New Jersey and New York all plan to continue to test asymptomatic people who have been exposed to COVID-19, despite new guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggesting that such tests may not be needed. “The current Texas guidance recommends testing for all close contacts of a confirmed case because it allows for early case identification among people who are at a higher risk of infection,” a spokesman for the Texas Department of State Health Services in a statement. “There’s not a planned change at this point.” California and New York made similar statements. The Florida Department of Health said asymptomatic testing was continuing while the new CDC recommendations were evaluated, and Texas also said it would evaluate. The CDC said this week that people exposed to COVID-19 but not symptomatic may not need to be tested, shocking doctors and politicians and prompting accusations the guidance was politically motivated. Even before the CDC guidance, coronavirus testing in the United States had dropped. The United States tested on average 675,000 people a day last week, down from a peak in late July of over 800,000 people a day. Nationally, cases have fallen for five weeks in a row but infections are surging again in the U.S. Midwest with four states reporting record one-day increases in cases on Thursday as the U.S. death toll climbed above 180,000. The CDC had previously recommended testing of all people who had close contact with someone who was diagnosed with COVID-19.
Fauci says Pence listens to him even though he's 'the skunk at the picnic' -Vice President Pence was praised by Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious diseases expert, for his willingness to listen to the latter's dire warnings about the scope of the U.S.'s COVID-19 outbreak in an interview published Monday. Answering emailed questions from The Washington Post, Fauci told the newspaper that Pence was doing his best to serve in his new role as head of the White House's coronavirus task force, on which Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, is a member. “I am sometimes referred to as ‘the skunk at the picnic’ but Pence never directly asks me, the skunk, to be quiet or leave,” said Fauci in response to the questions, adding that Pence was "a truly decent person, and very smart, who is trying to do his best in a very difficult and fluid situation." “Some may say that Pence and his team are ‘too ideological’ but they are after all political people. This is not unexpected," Fauci added, according to the Post. . Fauci's praise for Pence comes amid criticism aimed at the Trump administration, particularly President Trump, over the U.S.'s response to the coronavirus outbreak and the effectiveness of the U.S.'s response so far. The U.S. has reported more total confirmed cases than any country, and ranks fourth behind several South American countries in terms of total deaths per 100,000 citizens. Trump himself has been accused by Democrats and others of downplaying the number of deaths across the country as a result of the virus and has made numerous inaccurate claims about it, including the assertion that 99 percent of COVID-19 cases end up being "harmless." There have now been more than 5.6 million confirmed cases of the virus within the U.S.'s borders, and 176,223 deaths from the disease have been reported.
GOP Senators Demand FDA Explain Hydroxychloroquine Stance Amid Positive Studies And Physician Advocates -The debate over hydroxychloroquine has faded from the forefront as big tech has worked to suppress information and silence the voices of doctors and researchers promoting it. However, it appears the controversy over the drug has encouraged some senators to take a closer look, and it seems they are asking the FDA the right questions.Senators Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and Mike Lee (R-Utah) sent a letter to FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn explicitly asking about the agency’s handling of information regarding the drug and its use during the pandemic.Doctors and researchers advocating for hydroxychloroquine are recommending it be used in high-risk outpatients.Texas Congressman Louis Hohmert, who was recently diagnosed positive for COVID-19, tweeted just this morning about the benefits of hydroxychloroquine:Hydroxychloroquine protocols worked for me. Americans suffering from the Wuhan Virus deserve the right to consult with their doctors and try HCQ if deemed a safe and appropriate fit. Keep Big Govt out of this. Thank you Dr. Risch for your work and research on this.In the letter to Hahn, the senators are asking about specific actions the agency has taken regarding hydroxychloroquine. The current FDA guidance is that it should not be used outside the hospital setting for COVID-19, and the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) has been withdrawn. Given the safety profile of the medication and the fact it is used daily on an outpatient basis around the world for malaria prevention, malaria treatment, rheumatoid arthritis, and lupus, this guidance is ridiculous on its face.The recommended duration of hydroxychloroquine treatment for COVID-19 is between five and seven days at FDA approved dosages. In a sane world, a doctor may prescribe drugs off-label at approved dosages if they think a medication may be useful for a patient’s symptoms. However, 2020 is not sane, and now the FDA interference has led to medical boards, hospital systems, and politicians banning the use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. These actions are unprecedented in the doctor-patient relationship.Finally, these senators are standing up for that relationship and demanding clarity from the FDA.
The Truth Is Paywalled But The Lies Are Free - Paywalls are justified, even though they are annoying. It costs money to produce good writing, to run a website, to license photographs. Alot of money, if you want quality. Asking people for a fee to access content is therefore very reasonable. You don’t expect to get a print subscription to the newspaper gratis, why would a website be different? I try not to grumble about having to pay for online content, because I run a magazine and I know how difficult it is to pay writers what they deserve. But let us also notice something: the New York Times, the New Yorker, the Washington Post, the New Republic, New York, Harper’s, theNew York Review of Books, the Financial Times, and the London Times all have paywalls. Breitbart, Fox News, the Daily Wire, the Federalist, the Washington Examiner, InfoWars: free! You want “Portland Protesters Burn Bibles, American Flags In The Streets,” “The Moral Case Against Mask Mandates And Other COVID Restrictions,” or an article suggesting the National Institutes of Health has admitted 5G phones cause coronavirus—they’re yours. You want the detailed Times reports on neo-Nazis infiltrating German institutions, the reasons contact tracing is failing in U.S. states, or the Trump administration’s undercutting of the USPS’s effectiveness—well, if you’ve clicked around the website a bit you’ll run straight into the paywall. This doesn’t mean the paywall shouldn’t be there. But it does mean that it costs time and money to access a lot of true and important information, while a lot of bullshit is completely free. Now, crucially, I do not mean to imply here that reading the New York Times gives you a sound grasp of reality. I have documented many times how the Times misleads people, for instance by repeating the dubious idea that we have a “border crisis” of migrants “pouring into” the country or that Russia is trying to “steal” life-saving vaccine research that should be free anyway. But it’s important to understand the problem with the Times: it is not that the facts it reports tend to be inaccurate—thoughsometimes they are—but that the facts are presented in a way that misleads. It was changes in emphasis that were needed, because the facts were there in black and white. This means that a lot of the most vital information will end up locked behind the paywall. And while I am not much of a New Yorker fan either, it’s concerning that the Hoover Institute will freely give you Richard Epstein’s infamous article downplaying the threat of coronavirus, but Isaac Chotiner’s interview demolishing Epstein requires a monthly subscription, meaning that the lie is more accessible than its refutation.Possibly even worse is the fact that so much academic writing is kept behind vastly more costly paywalls. A white supremacist on YouTube will tell you all about race and IQ but if you want to read a careful scholarly refutation, obtaining a legal PDF from the journal publisher would cost you $14.95, a price nobody in their right mind would pay for one article if they can’t get institutional access. Libraries have to budget carefully because subscription prices are often nuts. A library subscription to the Journal of Coordination Chemistry, for instance, costs $11,367 annually.
Columbia Journalism Review Publishes Detailed Expose on Gates Foundation Buys Influence With Journalists - Yves Smith - Kudos to the Columbia Journalism Review for putting the muscle behind having Tim Schwab perform an in-depth investigation into how the Gates Foundation has lavished money on various not-for-profit news organizations, like NPR, as well as other media outlets in the US and abroad, to secure favorable, even at times one-sided coverage of its pet initiatives. Another successful leg of the Gates Foundations’ efforts is donating to fact-checkers, which in turn incorrectly brand articles that question Gates Foundation influence-buying or specific programs as inaccurate or conspiracy theories. Needless to say, this piece is particularly welcome given that Bill Gates is getting undue attention in the press for his views on Covid programs, particularly vaccines, as if medical policy patronage has rendered a software squillionaire particularly qualified to discuss public health. In fact, as Schwab points out:During the pandemic, news outlets have widely looked to Bill Gates as a public health expert on covid—even though Gates has no medical training and is not a public official.PolitiFact and USA Today (run by the Poynter Institute and Gannett, respectively—both of which have received funds from the Gates Foundation) have even used their fact-checking platforms to defend Gates from “false conspiracy theories” and “misinformation,” like the idea that the foundation has financial investments in companies developing covid vaccines and therapies. In fact, the foundation’s website and most recent tax forms clearly show investments in such companies, including Gilead andCureVac. …. Writing in De Correspondent, freelance journalists Robert Fortner and Alex Park examined the limitations and inadvertent consequences of the Gates Foundation’s relentless efforts to eradicate polio. In HuffPost, the two journalists showed how Gates’s outsize funding of global health initiatives has steered the world’s aid agenda toward the foundation’s own goals (like polio eradication) and away from issues such as emergency preparedness to respond to disease outbreaks, like the Ebola crisis. (This narrative has been lost in the current covid-19 news cycle, as outlets from the LA Times to PBS to STAThave portrayed Gates as a visionary leader on pandemics.) I strongly urge you to read Schwab’s devastating account in full. Let me present part of three threads to entice you. The first is on how Gates giving has turned NPR into a foundation mouthpiece:
Jared Kushner made a deal with Russia for ventilators, but every machine was faulty, report says -Jared Kushner brokered a deal with Russia for 45 ventilators to be brought to the US to help with the coronavirus crisis, but they all turned out to be faulty, a new report says.Two senior Trump administration officials told The Daily Beast that Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law and one of his senior advisers, helped to secure an equipment order that included the ventilators.They were unloaded from a Russian-marked plane in New York in March, as the COVID-19 outbreak was intensifying in the state.The report said the order was carried out by the State Department but was sped along thanks to Kushner's relationship with Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, a sovereign wealth fund of the Russian government. According to The Daily Beast, half of the equipment was paid for by the fund, which is subject to US sanctions limiting its interactions with US entities but not blocking them entirely. A Russian Aerospace Forces plane carrying medical equipment at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport on April 1. TASS/TASS via Getty ImagesThe delivery arrived but fell short of expectations. Officials in New York and New Jersey told The Daily Beast that the ventilators didn't work.Other outlets had reported on problems with the ventilators; two US officials told ABC News in May that they could not be used immediately because of voltage issues.ABC also reported that the shipment contained thousands of medical supplies that are not commonly used by hospitals, like household cleaning gloves, and that Russia billed the US almost $660,000 for them.
While the US is reeling from COVID-19, the Trump administration is trying to take away health care coverage - The Trump administration has had its hands full responding to the coronavirus pandemic, but that hasn’t stopped it from taking steps to reverse much of the gains in health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act was passed in 2010. In an article today on The Conversation, we discuss two major actions by the Trump administration that may would typically have made huge headlines but may have gotten lost in the COVID shuffle – 1) attempting to block grant Medicaid and 2) supporting a Supreme Court case that could take down the ACA.Despite shaky legal footing, the administration has moved ahead with its Healthy Adult Opportunity guidance, issued to state Medicaid directors in January, that allows for states to opt-in to a per capita cap or program-level block grant for Medicaid. Oklahoma was going to be the first to implement this until a ballot initiative to expand Medicaid passed in July.Block granting Medicaid has been a goal of Republicans for years, including during the ACA repeal efforts in Congress, but has never been able to be passed into law. This end run around federal law has been loudly challenged by legal scholars but is only one plank of the administration’s plans.Texas v. California will be heard in November, a case in which 17 Republican-led states are trying to take down the ACA through again dubious legal arguments about severability of the individual mandate from the rest of the law. The administration has abdicated its role to defend the law and is arguing in favor of striking it down, trying to accomplish through the courts what it has failed to do through Congress. As we wrote,If the ACA is struck down, that means the loss of coverage for preexisting conditions, the return of annual or lifetime caps, or policies being revoked for cancer patients. Those who don’t earn much money still deserve good health care. Nearly everyone will feel it if the Trump administration and Texas are successful, regardless of whether your health insurance is through your work, HealthCare.gov, Medicaid or Medicare.This fall, the Supreme Court and the voters will have a lot to say about how access and affordability of health insurance coverage look in 2021 and beyond. Read the whole piece here.
Threadbare’ US System Denounced as Study Shows 12 Million Lost Employer-Tied Health Care During Pandemic - Medicare for All advocates had new reason to decry the U.S. system that ties the healthcare for many to employment after a new study released Wednesday showed an estimate 12 million Americans have lost their employer-sponsored insurance coverage since the Covid-19 pandemic hit earlier this year.“Because most U.S. workers rely on their employer or a family member’s employer for health insurance, the shock of the coronavirus has cost millions of Americans their jobs and their access to healthcare in the midst of a public health catastrophe,” Josh Bivens, co-author of the study and director of research at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), said in a statement announcing the findings.“Tying health insurance to the labor market is always terribly inefficient and problematic, but becomes particularly so during times of great labor market churn,” said Bivens.The think tank pointed to a clear way to prevent job loss from equaling loss of health insurance.“Delinking health insurance with jobs should be a top policy priority,” EPI tweeted in a thread about the study and the authors’ takeaways. “The most ambitious and transformational way to sever this link is to make the federal government the payer of first resort for all health care expenses—a ‘single payer’ plan like #MedicareForAll.”But despite growing popularity of such a system among the American public, neither the Republican nor Democratic party platforms embrace the idea, despite continued advocacy from more progressive members of Congress and activists.Rep. Ilhan Omar, (D-Minn.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) introduced legislation this month to cover out-of-pocket healthcare expenses of all Americans during the pandemic by authorizing a wealth tax. Entitled the “Make Billionaires Pay Act,” the measure would be funded by taxing the wealth gains accrued by billionaires since March as millions of Americans lost their jobs. Both Sanders and Omar have co-sponsored Medicare for All legislation in the past, and the EPI study’s authors urged lawmakers to act quickly.“The coronavirus pandemic has exposed how incomplete and threadbare the U.S. safety net and social insurance system is,” said Ben Zipperer, an economist and study co-author. “In order to help millions of Americans during the pandemic and beyond, policymakers must take swift action to address the inequities and inefficiencies in our health care system.”EPI also noted online Wednesday that a single-payer system would not be a job killer, as its opponents like to assert.“Medicare for All is a hugely ambitious policy, and there’s a lot to debate about it. But the idea it would have a massive job-killing effect is a fake story,” Bivens said in an explainer video EPIshared on Twitter Wednesday.
Democrats leave 20 million unemployed in the lurch - Three weeks after the US Congress went on vacation and allowed federal supplemental unemployment benefits to expire for 20 million workers, cutting their benefits by $600 a week, the House of Representatives stabbed the unemployed in the back a second time. The Democratic Party-controlled House reconvened in the midst of its August recess, passed emergency legislation on the US Postal Service, and then adjourned without taking any action on the plight of those thrown out of work by the coronavirus crisis. Speaker Nancy Pelosi declined to act on the appeal by nearly 100 members of her own caucus, who sent a letter asking that the reconvened House take up legislation to restore federal extended benefits for tens of millions of workers. The refusal of Pelosi and other leading Democrats to take action on the unemployment crisis shows that the Democratic Party’s claim to uphold the interests of working people is a political fraud. The Democrats jump to attention when Wall Street demands a bailout, but they have no time for workers facing poverty, hunger, eviction and homelessness. Saturday’s House session followed the Democratic National Convention, where there was virtually no reference to the cutoff of federal extended benefits during four days of rhetorical bilge about the “decency” and “empathy” of Joe Biden. The alleged tender feelings of the Democratic presidential nominee evidently do not extend to those who lost their federal extended benefits on July 31. He made no mention of them in his acceptance speech, nor did he urge the House to take action on their behalf. The silence of the Democratic National Convention will be matched this week when the Republican National Convention meets to renominate the president. Trump will stage his own coronation with nonstop declarations about the “great economy” and his prowess in “making America great again.” But the only thing “great” about the present state of affairs is the great scale of the social need and mass suffering to which both corporate-controlled parties are entirely indifferent. Two weeks ago, Trump signed an executive order purporting to revive the extended federal benefits at a much lower level—$300 a week, a cut of 50 percent—to be financed through the disaster relief fund of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The White House capped the resources to be made available at a total of $44 billion, compared to the $70 billion a month that the supplemental benefits were paying out. In a best-case scenario, this would limit the duration of the $300-a-week benefits to about five weeks. But even this derisory assistance will be further reduced if natural disasters, such as the twin hurricanes expected to strike the Louisiana Gulf Coast this week, or the California wildfires, place sizeable demands on FEMA. Only one state, Arizona, has begun paying out benefits using the FEMA funding. Fourteen other states have been approved to do so but have not yet been able to carry through the necessary preparatory and administrative work to put the payments into operation.
In the Covid-19 Recession, Europe Props Up Jobs While the U.S. Props Up Workers - WSJ -Karren Madere and Andrea Knebel are both victims of the Covid-19 recession. Ms. Madere was laid off in June from her job at a travel-management company, where she negotiated hotel-room rates for corporate clients. Ms. Knebel was sent home in April from her job as a business consultant at an auto-parts factory.Ms. Madere, 61 years old, has since applied for nearly 200 jobs. She spends her days looking for jobs online and follows the news, hoping Congress will agree on another economic-relief package for laid-off workers. By contrast, Ms. Knebel’s lifestyle hasn’t changed all that much. She spends her time cycling around the picturesque valley where she lives, buying items for her house, and meeting friends for virtual breakfasts and lunches. She isn’t looking for work. She doesn’t worry about how to pay for health care, unlike Ms. Madere, who expects to go without health insurance for a few months. The difference: Ms. Madere lives outside Baton Rouge, La.; Ms. Knebel lives close to the Black Forest, in southern Germany. Their circumstances reflect the divergent policies the U.S. and most of Europe have used to support their labor markets. Like tens of millions of Europeans, Ms. Knebel is on furlough from her job at engineering group Robert Bosch GmbH. Though she didn’t work for nearly four months, and now works only some days, she continued throughout to receive roughly 90% of her normal salary, two-thirds of it paid by the German government.“I don’t feel that I lost that much financially,” said Ms. Knebel, 54, who lives with her teenage daughter.
Facial Recognition and Masking in the COVID-19 Era - An Unintended Consequence - With many jurisdictions imposing mandatory masking for their citizenry, it was just a matter of time until someone figured out that there would be an unintended consequence to this policy. Apparently, the United States Department of Homeland Security, the government arm in charge of protecting the homeland, has realized that there is a downside to masking. In many parts of the globe, facial recognition has become one of law enforcement's key crime fighting tools. The combined use of CCTV and artificial intelligence technology has allowed governments around the world to track individuals and, since the early days of the War on Terror been adopted as a means of tracking and ultimately apprehend and neutralize potential terrorists. In the case of the United States, Ban Facial Recognition has "tracked the trackers" and created this map which shows where facial recognition surveillance is occurring in the United States: Research has shown that facial recognition technology already has issues with non-white, non-male identification as shown in this quote from a 2019 study conducted by the National Institute of Standards and Technology:"Using the higher quality Application photos, false positive rates are highest in West and East African and East Asian people, and lowest in Eastern European individuals. This effect is generally large, with a factor of 100 more false positives between countries. However, with a number of algorithms developed in China this effect is reversed, with low false positive rates on East Asian faces. With domestic law enforcement images, the highest false positives are in American Indians, with elevated rates in African American and Asian populations; the relative ordering depends on sex and varies with algorithm.We found false positives to be higher in women than men, and this is consistent across algorithms and datasets. This effect is smaller than that due to race.
Social Security Fund Would Be Empty By 2023 If Payroll Taxes Were Cut, Actuary Estimates - Payments for Social Security benefits will end by the middle of 2023 if President Donald Trump were able to deliver on his promise of permanently cutting payroll taxes, and if another funding source was not provided to replace it, according to an estimate from the chief actuary of the Social Security Administration.Social Security trust fund problem with roll of USA dollar bills with storm clouds behind 100 dollar ... [+] Assuming legislation were passed eliminating payroll taxes as of Jan.1, 2021, the trust fund providing monthly stipends for Americans with disabilities would be emptied first around the middle of 2021, Chief Actuary Stephen Goss said in a letter sent Monday, and the fund that supports Social Security payments would run dry after the middle of 2023.Trump recently announced the federal government would defer payroll tax collections from Sept. 1 through the end of the year as an economic stimulus measure; employers withhold 6.2% of earnings of American workers to fund Social Security and employers pay an equal amount.Trump has said if he is reelected, he will make payroll tax cuts permanent, but White House officials have said no such initiative is on the agenda. Goss’ letter was sent to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), in response to an inquiry of what would happen if payroll taxes are cut permanently.
Wall Street Is Looting the American Retirement System. The Trump Administration Is Helping - The Trump administration is pushing dramatic changes to the American retirement system that will benefit Wall Street but push average citizens into plans that are riskier, less profitable, and loaded with high and hidden fees. In the past two months, the Trump’s Labor Department has introduced two pending changes to deregulate vulturous private equity firms and multi-trillion dollar retirement managers like Vanguard, Fidelity, and BlackRock. A third proposed change would restrict retirement investments with an underlying environmental, social, or governance mission — mainly to boost the struggling fossil-fuel industry. If finalized, the result will be death by a thousand cuts to Americans’ diminished retirement nest egg, amounting to an all-out Wall Street looting of American retirement. Pushing this through is Secretary of Labor Eugene Scalia — son of the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia — who for many years was one of Wall Street’s most prominent litigators, representing corporations like Chevron, Walmart, and Facebook, as well as over a dozen banks and financial firms during his tenure at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, a law firm with a robust corporate lobbying wing. The federal government, and the Labor Department in particular, have a big role making sure these plans work the way they’re intended, and in (at least in theory) preventing people from getting swindled by investment managers. One of the main guardrails aspiring retirees have is what’s known as “fiduciary duty,” a rule that requires managers of both pensions and 401(k)s to provide the best possible service — here, meaning the best quality investments for the lowest possible cost — or face liability. The fiduciary duty combined with workers being on the hook make the 401(k) sector a fertile breeding ground for high-stakes, multiparty lawsuits, where employers fight off accusations by workers and retirees of selecting low-performing and/or high-fee funds for their 401(k)s. An employer may negligently choose a retirement investment manager because they were the most readily available, or they didn’t have the resources to find an optimal plan, or they were mistaken of a fund’s potential. Other times — as was alleged against the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s retirement plan last year when the school received a $5 million donation from Fidelity Investments — the employer might have an incentive for choosing a certain fund.
Long delays at U.S.-Mexico border crossings after new travel restrictions - Americans who regularly cross the border from Mexico reported long wait times to re-enter the United States on Monday after U.S. officials imposed new COVID-19-related restrictions on cross-border travel by U.S. citizens and permanent residents. The government closed lanes at select ports of entry on the border and began conducting more secondary checks to limit non-essential travel and slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, a U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) representative said on Friday. According to CBP data, wait times at some border crossings have doubled or tripled. Many crossing points now have only one or two lanes of traffic open. On Monday, border-crossers reported wait times of up to 5-6 hours. The U.S. ambassador to Mexico, Christopher Landau, said “substantial delays” over the weekend were due to border agents focusing on “essential travel,” and said many people were crossing for other reasons such as shopping, dining and visiting families. “Such irresponsible behavior is exacerbating the health crisis,” he said on Twitter. Jess Herr, 30, a U.S. citizen who lives in the Mexican border city of Tijuana and works at a restaurant in San Diego in southern California, said she usually wakes up at 4 a.m. and crosses by car in about an hour to make her shift. When she saw the long line of cars on Monday, she decided to cross by foot, although she still had to wait five hours to cross the border. At the Cordoba bridge joining the Mexican city of Ciudad Juarez with El Paso in Texas, only two lanes were open to motorists. Border-crossers who usually waited about 45 minutes told Reuters they had waited more than three hours to cross, and some were late for work. Melissa Reyes, general manager for Border Partners, a nonprofit organization, said she had waited 4-1/2 hours to cross the border back into the United States over the weekend after going to Puerto Palomas in Mexico to do some shopping. Normally the wait time would be 15-20 minutes. The new restrictions announced last week would prove challenging for people whose lives span the border, she said. “It’s gonna be pretty devastating,” she said. The U.S.-Mexican border is the world’s busiest land border.
U.S. Immigration Agency Cancels Planned Furloughs – WSJ —U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services has called off a planned furlough of more than 13,400 employees set to begin on Monday, forestalling a cut of more than two-thirds of its staff that would have brought much of the agency’s work to a halt.Joe Edlow, the agency’s deputy director and day-to-day leader, announced the cancellation Tuesday in an email to staff and in a subsequent statement. Mr. Edlow said USCIS leadership decided to cancel the furloughs in light of higher-than-expected demand in immigration applications and aggressive spending cuts.USCIS, unlike most other federal agencies, funds itself almost entirely through the fees it collects. In May, the agency said it was considering a planned furlough, after citizenship and immigration applications fell precipitously in March and April because of the coronavirus pandemic. The agency asked Congress for an emergency $1.2 billion infusion, but hopes of a bailout faded when Congress failed to strike a deal on a Covid-19 relief package last month.“Once it became clear that Congress was not going to act before Aug. 30, we increased our efforts to find additional savings by making significant spending cuts, and we have begun taking further proactive measures to sustain our federal workforce until Congress acts,” Mr. Edlow wrote. Without congressional intervention, he added, the public should expect longer wait times, including for citizenship applications to be processed.
ICE reports over 230 active COVID-19 infections at Arizona facility - Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has reported that there are more than 230 active coronavirus cases in one of their facilities in Arizona. As of Saturday, La Palma Correctional Center in Eloy, Ariz., has reported a total of 356 cases in the facility since the start of the pandemic, of which 233 are currently in isolation in ICE custody. In total, 850 of the 21,066 people in ICE custody across the country are currently in isolation after testing positive for coronavirus. Since the start of the pandemic 5,300 people in ICE custody have tested positive for COVID-19. An additional 45 ICE detention staff have tested positive as well. La Palma has the highest number of cases by far, followed by the Stewart Detention Center in Georgia, which currently has 108 cases. Only La Palma and Stewart have more than 100 cases, according to ICE data. ICE did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Hill. ICE spokeswoman Yasmeen Pitts O’Keefe told CBS News the agency upped their testing at La Palma by testing 1,000 detainees, most of whom were asymptomatic. Florence Immigrant & Refugee Rights Project, an immigration advocacy group in Arizona, has long advocated for the release of people in ICE custody. “The government either does not have the interest or the ability to contain this virus inside detention centers, and people’s lives are on the line," Laura St. John, legal director of the Florence Project, said in a statement. Florence and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) filed a federal lawsuit earlier this year on behalf of migrants detained at La Palma who claimed they were forced to clean the center where they were being held as they were fed rotten food and denied protection from the coronavirus.
US Bill Seeks To Ban Title "President" For China's Xi Jinping - A new bill introduced in Washington seeks to change the way the federal government refers to the leader of China, prohibiting the use of the term "president", and will - if passed - lead to a dramatic escalation in already tense relations between the two superpowers. According to the SCMP, the "Name the Enemy Act" would require that official US government documents instead refer to the head of state according to his or her role as head of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).The Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, holds three official titles, none of which is “president”: head of state (guojia zhuxi, literally “state chairman”); chairman of the central military commission; and general secretary of the CCP. However, in the English-speaking world, Xi has generally opted for “president”, which critics say "offers unwarranted legitimacy" to an unelected leader.Introduced by Representative Scott Perry, Republican of Pennsylvania, the House bill would prohibit the use of federal funds for the “creation or dissemination” of official documents and communications that refer to the China’s leader as “president”. A spokesperson for Perry, who sits on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, did not respond to a SCMP request for comment on the extent to which “communications” would include public statements and remarks by US officials."Addressing the head of state of the People’s Republic of China as a "president" grants the incorrect assumption that the people of the state, via democratic means, have readily legitimised the leader who rules them," the legislation states.The bill singles out China, despite the fact that presidents in numerous countries are either unelected or in power resulting from elections that are not considered free and fair.
American Fishing Vessels Spooked As Russian Nuclear Submarine Surfaces Near Alaska -Though American and its European allies are quite used to by now Russian drills occurring in places like the Black and Baltic Seas, and even in the Eastern Mediterranean off Syria's coast, on Thursday into Friday the Russian navy conducted military games near Alaska, in a first such instance since the Soviet Union. The military games took place in the Bering Sea and surprisingly involved over 50 warships and some 40 aircraft. The significant size given the location will surely be seen as a provocation by Washington, in a region which over the past year has seen multiple NORAD jets scrambled to intercept Russian long-range bombers coming too near Alaska's coast. “We are holding such massive drills there for the first time ever,” Russia’s navy chief, Adm. Nikolai Yevmenov said in an official statement. The AP reports that the timeline of the exercises remains unclear, and they could be ongoing possibly through the weekend. It's broadly part of a Russian military initiative to better secure the Arctic region and to "protect its resources," as the AP notes. Interestingly and certainly provocatively both the Omsk nuclear submarine and the Varyag missile cruiser took part in the games, reportedly launching cruise missiles at targets as part of the exercises. NORAD says it's closely monitoring as is the US Coast Guard, the latter which was actually tipped off by US fishing vessels which were stunned to apparently observe military activity. The Moscow Times also confirms that area fishing vessels actually witnessed a Russian nuclear submarine surfacing - something highly unusual:A Russian nuclear submarine has surfaced near Alaska during navy exercises, spooking American commercial fishing vessels in the area, the U.S. military said early Friday. Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Thursday that its nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine Omsk and missile cruiser Varyag fired at targets in the Bering Sea as part of its “Ocean Shield 2020” drills. Alaskan media reported that local pollock fishermen had a close encounter with the Russian vessels.
On Unconditional Military Aid To Israel, Biden-Harris Far To The Right Even Of Bush Admin - Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris told a group of Jewish donors Wednesday that a Joe Biden White House would not place any conditions on military aid to Israel, and that a Biden-Harris administration would continue the "unprecedented" military and intelligence cooperation with the Jewish state the country received from the Obama administration. Haartez reports the California Democrat's comments came during a virtual campaign call with donors in which she assured attendees that "Joe has made it clear he will not tie security assistance to political decisions Israel makes," adding that she "couldn't agree more" with that policy. "The Biden-Harris administration will sustain our unbreakable commitment to Israel's security," Harris reportedly said, "including the unprecedented military and intelligence cooperation pioneered during the Obama administration and guarantee that Israel will always maintain its qualitative military edge." The Obama administration was often criticized by international human rights advocates for its unconditional support for Israel, which had launched three devastating wars against Gaza in 2008, 2012, and 2014, in which thousands of civilians were killed. Israel also faced growing international condemnation for its ongoing illegal occupation and settler colonization of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, as well as what prominent international critics have called ethnic cleansing and apartheid in the occupied Palestinian territories. During the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, there was an historic shift among candidates' stances regarding Israel. For the first time, not only progressive candidates like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), but also more moderate ones like former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg said they would consider attaching conditions to Israel aid.Biden has called the idea of conditioning aid to Israel "absolutely outrageous."
Senate Report Slams Land-Conservation Tax-Break Deals – WSJ —Deals using tax breaks for land conservation are often based on inflated property appraisals and sham partnerships, a Senate panel found.The bipartisan Finance Committee report, released Tuesday, calls for legislation to curb the deals and for even tougher enforcement from the Internal Revenue Service, which has been clamping down on the transactions for years.The report draws on e-mails between investors and promoters to document how deals were engineered to generate tax breaks worth more than what people put in.“The conservation-easement deduction provides an important tool for the preservation of our environment, but the federal government needs to curtail the aggressiveness that goes on with these syndicated transactions,” said the committee’s chairman, Sen. Charles Grassley (R., Iowa).The report continues the government’s pressure on these syndicated conservation easements, which have been particularly popular in the southeastern U.S.In 2016, the IRS began requiring investors and promoters to disclose the transactions on their tax returns, essentially raising a red flag for audits. Investors claimed $6 billion in deductions related to these easements in 2016 and $6.8 billion in 2017, according to the IRS.The tax code lets landowners claim charitable deductions for donating what are known as conservation easements, often to nonprofit land trusts. The easements place permanent restrictions on the uses of property and thus diminish its value. That diminished value can then be deducted from income.For example, a property worth $10 million without restrictions might be worth just $2 million if new houses never could be built there. The $8 million difference can be claimed as a tax deduction.President Trump has used conservation easements on several of his properties, including New York and California donations now under scrutiny by the New York Attorney General’s office.The syndicated deals take the concept to another level. Promoters identify land and recruit investors into partnerships that buy the property, then donate the development rights.
'He's going to be unleashed': Republican DOJ appointees urge against Trump second term -A group of onetime Republican presidential appointees who served as senior ethics or Justice Department aides are endorsing Joe Biden for president, warning that Donald Trump has “weaponized” the executive branch and is putting in peril the legitimacy of the Justice Department.“I think a lot of us are extremely alarmed, frankly, at the threat of autocracy,” Donald B. Ayer, former deputy attorney general during the George H.W. Bush administration, said in an interview with POLITICO. “He’s going to be unleashed if he gets a second term. I don’t know what’s going to stop him.” The former officials endorsing Tuesday served under the Reagan, H.W. Bush and George W. Bush administrations.The officials said they’re backing Biden in the hope of restoring “basic honesty and integrity to the U.S. Department of Justice and to Executive Branch decision-making.”“There’s no reasonable choice here at all. Trump is a person who is utterly unfit to serve. I don’t want to be apocalyptic but if he were reelected then all of the tendencies that we’ve seen in the first term — and they keep getting scarier and scarier — would [only get worse] in terms of the militarization and peaceful protests and the use of the justice system to do whatever he wants.”For his part, Trump has railed against Democrats taking the reins at the Justice Department, saying Biden would radicalize the nation’s response to protests. Trump has said he is the president whose chief interest is maintaining law and order.
Trump's sister assailed him for 'lying,' 'phoniness,' 'cruelty,' and having 'no principles,' secretly recorded audio reveals -- President Donald Trump's sister, Maryanne Trump Barry, described her brother as a liar and an egomaniac in a series of conversations that were secretly recorded by her niece, and published Saturday evening by The Washington Post.. Barry made the comments to her niece, Mary Trump, who recently published a book that negatively portrayed the president, titled "Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man." Mary Trump provided the audio recordings to The Washington Post after being questioned about the sources of some of the information revealed in her book. In one audio clip published by The Post, Barry expressed astonishment at her brother's handling of family separation at the US-Mexico border, where thousands of migrant children were forcibly taken from their parents and scattered to shelters across the country with no plan for reunification. "His goddamned tweet and the lying, oh my God. I'm talking too freely, but you know," Barry could be heard saying on the recording. "The change of stories. The lack of preparation. The lying. Holy s---. But he's appealing to the base. What they're doing to the kids at the border, I mean." The White House sent Business Insider a statement from President Donald Trump, saying, "Every day it's something else, who cares. I miss my brother, and I'll continue to work hard for the American people. Not everyone agrees, but the results are obvious. Our country will soon be stronger than ever before." Trump was referring to his younger brother, Robert Trump, who died August 15. Maryanne Trump Barry reportedly did not attend the funeral.Barry was a federal judge who has previously ruled on immigration cases. According to The Post, her remarks to Mary Trump occurred not long after the president joked on Fox News about sending his sister to the border, which had a severe shortage of immigration judges.
Trump goes after niece who wrote critical book: 'Unstable' and 'shunned' entire life - President Trump on Saturday lambasted his niece who recently wrote a critical book about him and released recordings of family members talking about him, with the president calling her “unstable.” In multiple morning tweets, the president went after Mary Trump and others who have written tell-all books about him and his tenure as president, saying they had to write bad things about him in order to sell their work. “About the only way a person is able to write a book on me is if they agree that it will contain as much bad 'stuff' as possible, much of which is lies. It’s like getting a job with CNN or MSDNC and saying that 'President Trump is great.' You have ZERO chance. FAKE NEWS!” he tweeted. “Even whether it’s dumb warmongers like John Bolton, social pretenders like Bob Woodward, who never has anything good to say, or an unstable niece, who was now rightfully shunned, scorned and mocked her entire life, and never even liked by her own very kind & caring grandfather!” he added. The broadsides come after Mary Trump released a blistering book in July about her uncle, accusing him of “cruelty and incompetence” and a penchant for lying and cheating dating back years. “Donald’s pathologies are so complex and his behaviors so often inexplicable that coming up with an accurate and comprehensive diagnosis would require a full battery of psychological and neuropsychological tests that he’ll never sit for,” she wrote. She followed up the release of her book with the release of audio recordings in which President Trump's older sister, a retired federal judge, said her brother "has no principles."
Michael Cohen burned book manuscript to prevent leak by pro-Trump prison guards: report - Michael Cohen, President Trump’s former personal attorney, burned his original tell-all manuscript in prison for fear it would be confiscated by his guards, Vanity Fair reported Monday. In April, as Cohen was about to be transferred to solitary confinement over a fight with another inmate, he was fearful correctional officers would leak the contents of the 500-page manuscript to the media, according to an account by the magazine. Cohen also perceived the guards as overwhelmingly pro-Trump and was concerned they would also leak it to associates of the president. As the transfer occurred on the first night of Passover, Cohen burned the manuscript in the customary fire built for Jewish inmates to burn hametz, or leavened products. Cohen’s wife, however, had access to a backup copy of the manuscript on a thumb drive, according to the magazine. The book, “Disloyal,” is set to be released in coming weeks. “I know where the skeletons are buried because I was the one who buried them,” Cohen wrote in a foreword posted online. “From golden showers in a sex club in Vegas, to tax fraud, to deals with corrupt officials from the former Soviet Union, to catch and kill conspiracies to silence Trump’s clandestine lovers, I wasn’t just a witness to the president’s rise—I was an active and eager participant.” Cohen earlier this year refused to waive his right to publish a book in exchange for compassionate release during the coronavirus pandemic. He was returned to prison but ordered released by a judge, who ruled the Bureau of Prisons’s clause violated his freedom of speech. The former attorney is also engaged in a legal battle with the Trump Organization, which he has said pledged to pay his legal fees during former special counsel Robert Mueller’s prosecution of him before backing out. A judge on Thursday ruled Cohen can continue his case, Vanity Fair reported. Cohen, if allowed by the court, reportedly plans to seek depositions from the president’s eldest sons, Don Jr. and Eric, as well as his accountant Allen Weisselberg.
Kimberly Guilfoyle gives dark convention address warning of Democratic destruction of country - Kimberly Guilfoyle, a former Fox News host and top surrogate of President Trump, delivered a grim, forceful speech at the Republican National Convention on Monday, accusing Democrats of working to “destroy this country” and “enslave” Americans with a “liberal victim ideology.” The speech, delivered in a near-constant shout, painted a dark picture of the United States if former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), win the White House in November. “They want to destroy this country and everything we have fought for and hold dear,” Guilfoyle, who is dating Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., said. “They want to steal your liberty, your freedom. They want to control what you see and think and believe so that they can control how you live.” “They want to enslave you to the weak, dependent, liberal victim ideology to the point where you will not recognize this country or yourself,” she added. At one point in her address, Guilfoyle cast the coming presidential election as a “battle for the soul of America,” echoing a phrase that Biden has used repeatedly throughout his campaign for the White House. “Presidential leadership is not guaranteed,” Guilfoyle said. “It is a choice. Biden, Harris and the rest of the socialists will fundamentally change this nation.” “They will defund, dismantle and destroy America’s law enforcement,” she added. “When you are in trouble and need police, don’t count on the Democrats.”
The Republican National Convention: A frightened ruling class incites fascist violence - The Republican National Convention concluded its third day last night, with a parade of speakers combining endless homages to the police and military with denunciations of protests against police violence as mobs and anarchists. The convention’s verbal violence was complemented by the physical violence unfolding in Kenosha, Wisconsin, where a fascist gunman opened fire on people protesting against police violence in the wake of the police shooting of 29-year-old Jacob Blake. The gunman, 17-year-old Kyle Howard Rittenhouse, killed two people and seriously wounded a third, and then was allowed by police to pass through their lines carrying his weapon and return to his home in Illinois, where he was later arrested. Rittenhouse is a fervent Trump supporter who attended a campaign rally in Des Moines, Iowa on January 30, and can be seen on video sitting in the front row only a few feet away from the president. He posted a TikTok video from the event. When an ultra-right paramilitary group, the Kenosha Guard, issued an appeal for right-wing gunmen to come to the city and reinforce the police against protesters, Rittenhouse was only one of a number who responded. There is a direct chain of causation from the White House to the gas station in Kenosha where Rittenhouse opened fire on innocent people. Trump’s constant diatribes against protesters and in support of the police, since the protests first began after the May 25 police killing of George Floyd, included retweeting the notoriously racist slogan, first issued by a Southern sheriff during the civil rights movement, that “When the looting starts, the shooting starts.” Rittenhouse put these words into action. In his speech Wednesday night, Vice President Mike Pence included Kenosha in a list of Democratic-run cities where anarchy has supposedly been unleashed, including Portland and Seattle, and said nothing about the murder of protesters by a Trump-loving fascist. In the course of two-and-a-half hours, not a single convention speaker raised the events in Kenosha or expressed the slightest regret or concern over the actions carried out by Rittenhouse. He had been named Wednesday morning, and his identity as a Trump supporter was certainly known before the convention session began at 8:30 p.m. This collective silence betokens consent: the Republican Party has become the party of vigilante violence against those protesting against police brutality and other forms of oppression. This was already demonstrated Monday, when Mark and Patricia McCloskey, the wealthy vigilante couple who pointed weapons at Black Lives Matter protesters in St. Louis, addressed the convention. They hailed Trump as the defender of the suburbs against (black) invaders.
Sen. Rand Paul says he and his wife were 'attacked by an angry mob' after Trump speech - Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was met with protesters early Friday while walking with his wife from the White House following President Trump’s closing speech at the Republican National Convention.“Just got attacked by an angry mob of over 100, one block away from the White House,” Paul tweeted, while thanking the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department for “literally saving our lives.”Video uploaded to Twitter by a bystander showed Paul and his wife, Kelley Paul, being escorted by police through a crowd of protesters following the events at the White House.Some officers can be heard shouting “move back” at the crowd of protesters as they chanted for the senator to “say her name,” a common refrain from demonstrators regarding the police killing of Breonna Taylorin Paul's home state of Kentucky.During an appearance on “Fox & Friends,” Paul said that he and his wife were unharmed but said protesters were threatening to kill them. “They were yelling threats, they were trying to push the police over to get to me, they were grabbing at us,” Paul said.When asked by host Steve Doocy to elaborate on the alleged threats, Paul said protesters threatened to “‘eff you up’ and kill you.”“I truly believe this with every fiber of my being — had they gotten at us, they would have gotten us to the ground, we might not have been killed, we might just have been injured by being kicked in the head or kicked in the stomach until we were senseless,” Paul elaborated. Paul noted that he was the senator who introduced the “Justice for Breonna Taylor Act,” which would prohibit federal law enforcement from carrying out a warrant "until after the officer provides notice of his or her authority and purpose." “The irony is lost on these idiots. They’re trying to kill the person who's actually trying to get rid of no-knock raids,” Paul said.
Democrats To Investigate Pompeo Over GOP Convention Speech---House Democrats are launching an investigation into Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's upcoming speech at tonight's Republican National Convention - not over the content of the speech, but whether it's in violation of the Hatch Act and a breach of State Department regulations, according to The Hill.Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs panel's subcommittee of oversights and investigations, raised his concerns in a letter to Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun and requested information on the secretary’s planned remarks.Pompeo is coming under scrutiny for taking time during official diplomatic travel in the Middle East to record remarks to be played at the GOP convention on Tuesday night. -The HillPompeo is believed to have recorded several remarks from Jerusalem, possibly violating his own instructions that appointed State Department officials are barred from engaging in partisan political activities related to US elections. The State Department, however, says Pompeo is acting in his personal capacity and that taxpayer resources were not used for preparing or delivering the remarks.
Pelosi, Schiff pan director of national intelligence for canceling election security briefings - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, panned the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) on Saturday for canceling all election security briefings for Congress. The two Democrats said the ODNI canceled briefings scheduled for September on foreign election interference and informed them it will hold no others, likely infuriating lawmakers who have pushed the Trump administration to be more transparent about intelligence regarding threats to the November elections. “This is a shocking abdication of its lawful responsibility to keep the Congress currently informed, and a betrayal of the public’s right to know how foreign powers are trying to subvert our democracy,” Pelosi and Schiff said in a joint statement. “This intelligence belongs to the American people, not the agencies which are its custodian. And the American people have both the right and the need to know that another nation, Russia, is trying to help decide who their president should be.” The ODNI did tell congressional leaders that it will provide written "finished intelligence products." "I believe this approach helps ensure, to the maximum extent possible, that the information ODNI provides the Congress in support of your oversight responsibilities on elections security, foreign malign influence, and election interference is not misunderstood nor politicized," Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe wrote in letters to congressional committee heads. "It will also better protect our sources and methods and most sensitive intelligence from additional unauthorized disclosures or misuse." Democrats in both chambers of Congress have ramped up their warnings about interference from Russia and other nations in this fall’s elections, still fuming over what they say were insufficient efforts to warn voters about meddling from Moscow in the 2016 presidential race.
Federal judge issues stay in Trump challenge of mail balloting in Pennsylvania - (Reuters) - A federal judge on Sunday ordered a stay in President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign’s lawsuit seeking to ban drop boxes and other changes to Pennsylvania’s mail-balloting procedures. The Nov. 3 election promises to be the nation’s largest test of voting by mail and the two major parties are locked in numerous lawsuits that will shape how millions of Americans vote this autumn. The Republican president has repeatedly and without evidence said that an increase in mail-in ballots would lead to a surge in fraud, although Americans have long voted by mail. There is perhaps no more consequential lawsuit than the one in Pennsylvania, which Trump won by less than 1 percentage point in 2016 and is considered essential to his re-election effort. J. Nicholas Ranjan, U.S district judge for western Pennsylvania, said the federal case brought by the Trump campaign would not move forward until similar lawsuits in state courts are completed or unless they are delayed. Justin Clark, Trump’s deputy campaign manager, said the judge’s decision recognized that the issue touched on both state and constitutional issues. “The federal court is simply going to reserve its judgment on this in the hopes that the state court will resolve these serious issues and guarantee that every Pennsylvanian has their vote counted—once,” Clark said. The Trump campaign is seeking to ban ballot drop boxes, which were deployed in the state’s most recent primary and that allow voters to submit absentee ballots and bypass the U.S. Postal Service.
Trumps face N.Y. probe into valuation of assets to get loans- New York’s attorney general is investigating whether President Donald Trump’s company inflated the value of his assets to secure favorable terms for loans and insurance coverage tax benefits, according to filings in a lawsuit brought by the state on Monday to enforce subpoenas in the matter. The state opened the probe after Trump’s former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen testified to Congress about his work for the Trump Organization and handed over financial records from 2011 to 2013, New York Attorney General Letitia James’s office said in a filing Monday in state court in Manhattan. The investigation is also looking into whether Trump devalued other assets to avoid taxes, according to the filing. James “has issued a number of subpoenas and has taken testimony seeking information material to these matters,” the filing says. She “has not concluded its investigation and has not reached a determination regarding whether the facts identified to date establish violations of any applicable laws.” “For months, the Trump Organization has acknowledged the OAG’s authority to investigate the matters alleged, and has professed cooperation, but has refused to produce documents on invalid grounds,” James said in a press release Monday. “In recent weeks, Eric Trump has refused to appear entirely to give testimony pursuant to a subpoena, despite his being an important character in certain transactions.”
Trump must turn over tax returns, does not deserve immunity, Manhattan's top prosecutor says - (Reuters) - Manhattan’s top prosecutor told a U.S. court on Thursday he should be able to obtain President Donald Trump’s tax returns, saying Trump cannot immunize himself from a criminal probe of his business practices by pursuing an appeal that has “no chance of success.” Cyrus Vance, the Manhattan district attorney, urged the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan in a filing to reject Trump’s emergency bid to block a subpoena to the president’s accounting firm, Mazars USA, for eight years of tax returns. Trump has until Monday to respond in writing. Oral arguments are scheduled for Sept. 1. The Republican president has been fighting to block Vance’s subpoena for a year, including at the U.S. Supreme Court, which last month rejected his argument that he has immunity from criminal probes while in the White House. Trump later claimed that Vance’s subpoena was “wildly overbroad” and issued in “bad faith,” largely mirroring similar subpoena issued by congressional Democrats. He has also called Vance’s subpoena part of a “witch hunt,” saying the case will likely head back to the Supreme Court. But in Thursday’s filing, Vance said that by continuing to litigate, Trump had effectively obtained “temporary absolute immunity,” a claim “rejected at every level of the federal courts,” by keeping a grand jury from seeing his tax returns. He also said handing over the returns would not irreparably harm Trump, citing the confidentiality of grand jury proceedings, and noted that the past six U.S. presidents publicly released their tax returns.
Beleaguered Texas Republicans' latest threat: Coronavirus - Texas was already one of the nation’s most-watched battlefields this year. Then came the pandemic. Republicans and Democrats are brawling over a dozen House seats in the state's most expansive political landscape in recent memory — swing districts that also happen to encompass some of the worst-hit coronavirus hot spots in Texas. Roughly 70 days before the election, Republican incumbents have been forced on the defensive by the pandemic, as Democrats pitch their health care platform and try to tag the GOP as irresponsible and anti-science. Democrats are looking to flip as many as seven GOP seats, spanning the suburbs from San Antonio to Dallas to Houston, with several more in play that were hardly seen as competitive a few months ago. But the coronavirus, which has killed more than 11,000 Texans and infected a half-million more, has permeated the tightest races on issues from mask orders to health insurance to school openings, according to candidates and strategists in Texas. “Every day, I talk to somebody who has Covid in their family ... When I talk to voters, that is definitely the number one issue to them,” said Sri Preston Kulkarni, who is running again for a sprawling seat outside Houston that he narrowly lost to GOP Rep. Pete Olson, who has since announced his retirement. Health care had already been a top issue for Kulkarni in 2018. This time, the former foreign service officer is holding campaign events with an epidemiologist and an expert in vaccine development; meanwhile, his opponent — GOP sheriff Troy Nehls — once compared local mask mandates to “a communist dictatorship.” though he has toned down the rhetoric since cases surged in Texas. The virus has also roiled the race of freshman Rep. Chip Roy, a vocal GOP critic of infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci who has openly questioned Fauci’s warnings against reopening the economy too soon and is now in a “toss-up” race with Democrat Wendy Davis for a district in the suburbs of Austin.
How QAnon Conspiracy Is Spreading In Christian Communities Across The U.S. – NPR audio w/ transcript - The false conspiracy theory known as QAnon is moving from fringe Internet chatrooms into mainstream politics. A Republican congressional candidate in Georgia is a supporter. The Texas Republican Party has used a QAnon slogan in campaign messaging. President Trump himself has retweeted QAnon followers at least 200 times and described them as, quote, "people that love our country." To be clear, this is a group the FBI has labeled a potential domestic terrorist threat. Its followers believe that President Trump is saving the world from a cult of cannibalistic pedophiles. Reporter Katelyn Beaty writes for the Religion News Service about how this belief is taking hold in white evangelical churches. Her piece is called "QAnon: The Alternative Religion That's Coming To Your Church."
Private Equity Billionaire Leon Black To Receive Subpoena Over Decades-Long Relationship With Jeffrey Epstein -- Officials in the US Virgin Islands plan to subpoena billionaire investor Leon Black over his decades-long relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, according to the New York Times. Epstein served as a director on the Leon Black Family Foundation for over a decade, while the pedophile accepted a $10 million donation for his Gratitude America foundation from Black's "BV70 LLC" charity. Meanwhile, after Epstein got out of prison for pedophilia, Black met with the financier at his company’s New York offices. Black also dispatched Apollo co-founder Marc Rowan to attend a meeting at Epstein’s Manhattan mansion with representatives of Edmond de Rothschild Group to discuss how the two firms could work together more closely, people with knowledge of the meeting told Bloomberg in July, 2019. On Thursday, US Virgin Islands attorney general Denise N. George notified a local court that she would issue civil subpoenas to Black, founder of Apollo Global Management, as well as several entities he's tied to, according to the chief clerk of the court. The subpoenas, copies of which were filed with the court, seek financial statements and tax returns for a number of entities, including Black Family Partners and Elysium Management, which oversee some of Mr. Black’s $9 billion fortune. Subpoenas will also go to Apollo and entities that help manage Mr. Black’s extensive art collection. Mr. Black has said Mr. Epstein provided him with advice on tax strategy, estate planning and philanthropy, but has provided no details. A representative for Mr. Black said the financier had no further comment. Mr. Black and his companies paid millions in fees to Southern Trust Company, which Mr. Epstein set up in the Virgin Islands in 2013, according to three people briefed on the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. -New York Times According to territorial officials, Epstein claimed that Southern Trust was creating a DNA data-mining service, and would have a "financial arm." It collected $184 million in fees from 2013 - 2018, though the Times notes that it is unclear how much of that came from Black - who claims Epstein did no work for Apollo. Some of the firms about to receive subpoenas include companies which Black has used to build a staggering art collection which includes works by Pablo Picasso, Edgar Degas and Henri Matisse.
Banking super PAC moves closer to announcing Senate endorsements — Friends of Traditional Banking is focusing on four Republican incumbent senators as it moves closer to endorsing congressional candidates in the November elections. The super PAC that aims to support lawmakers siding with the industry on key legislative issues has narrowed its list of potential endorsements to Sens. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, Cory Gardner, R-Colo., Martha McSally, R-Ariz., and Thom Tillis, R-N.C. The group said it will ultimately issue two endorsements. All four of the Republican senators are currently considered at risk in the upcoming elections. The Senate races in Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa are considered “toss-ups” by Cook Political Report, while the Senate race in Arizona was labeled as leaning toward the Democratic candidate. In a press release, the super PAC said it is not endorsing any Democratic candidates, because “not a single Democratic U.S. Senator was in a race listed as ‘Toss Up’ by the political handicappers.” Sens. Doug Jones, D-Ala., and Gary Peters, D-Mich., are considered the most vulnerable Democratic senators up for reelection. Cook Political Report has labeled the Alabama Senate race as leaning toward the Republican candidate, and the Michigan Senate race as leaning toward the Democrat.
FDIC's quarterly report shows extent of pandemic's hit to bank profits — The nation’s banks weathered a tumultuous second quarter as the economy continued to feel the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Tuesday. Banks reported a decline in quarterly net income decline of 70% from a year earlier to $18.8 billion, driven by surging loan-loss provisions that grew over 380% grew to $61.9 billion. However, quarterly profits were slightly above the industry's first-quarter earnings total. Beyond economic headwinds, the FDIC also cited the adoption of the current expected credit losses accounting methodology as a leading driver of loan-loss provisions. Among the 253 banks that have adopted CECL, loan-loss provisions swelled by nearly 420% from a year earlier, while non-CECL banks reported an increase of 207%. At the same time, the banking industry is being challenged by narrowing net interest margins. The average net interest margin fell by 58 basis points from a year earlier to 2.81%. Net interest income declined 5.4% to $131.5 billion. The FDIC emphasized that much of the decline was “driven by the three largest institutions, as less than half (42.2 percent) of all banks reported lower net interest income from a year ago.” “This is the lowest NIM ever reported in the Quarterly Banking Profile,” the FDIC said in its report. Meanwhile, the FDIC continues to report huge deposit inflows at banks, with total deposit balances increasing by $1.2 trillion from the first quarter of 2020. Deposit inflows have been so strong, the FDIC reported, that the reserve ratio of the agency’s Deposit Insurance Fund had fallen below its legal minimum: from 1.39% in the first quarter to 1.30% in the second quarter. The FDIC is statutorily required to maintain a ratio above 1.35%. “I want to emphasize that the Fund has more money than at any time in the FDIC’s history, and the reduction in the reserve ratio was solely a result of the unprecedented increase in bank deposits,” FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams said in prepared remarks. A $1.4 billion increase in the fund pushed its balance to $114.7 billion. “We believe deposit growth is likely to normalize in the upcoming quarters and for the reserve ratio to rise about 1.35 without any need to modify assessment rates in the near term,” McWilliams said. In addition to earnings, credit quality is also taking a hit from the pandemic. The FDIC reported a 22% increase in net charge-offs from a year earlier to $15.6 billion, which was the largest percentage increase since the first quarter of 2010. The charge-off rate rose 7 basis points to 0.57%.
Regulators finalize rule changes to help banks weather pandemic— Banking regulators finalized three rules Wednesday that have been in place on an interim basis since earlier this year to address the coronavirus pandemic. The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency together approved final rules codifying temporary changes to the community bank leverage ratio, automatic restrictions on capital distributions and a measure delaying a new accounting standard for expected credit losses. Congress in the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act temporarily lowered the community bank leverage ratio — a simplified measure that institutions with assets of less than $10 billion can use instead of more complex capital requirements — by 1 percentage point to 8%. To further lighten the load, the regulatory agencies said that community banks choosing to use the CBLR would only need to raise it to 8.5% in 2021. The 9% minimum would be reinstated the following year starting Jan. 1. Regulators also finalized an interim rule issued in March that placed automatic restrictions on bank capital distributions, including share repurchases, dividend payments and bonus payments. The rule is intended to make those limitations more gradual. That rule will go into effect Jan. 1. Martin Gruenberg, an FDIC board member and former chairman of the agency, voted against finalizing that rule, arguing in a statement that it "puts the banking system at greater risk." "This is a misconceived rulemaking that allows a banking organization to continue to make capital distributions, such as dividends, that would weaken the capital position of the bank during a period of extraordinary economic stress," he said. The agencies additionally finalized an interim rule from March that will allow financial institutions to push back the implementation of the current expected credit losses, or CECL, accounting standard for two years, followed by a three-year transition period. The final rule will apply to all financial institutions, unlike the interim rule, which only applied to banks that were required to convert to CECL this year. The CECL delay will take effect once it is published in the Federal Register, the agencies said in a release.
Sharp divide between large and small credit unions in PPP lending - Just two of the top 20 credit unions that issued loans through the Paycheck Protection Program have assets under $1 billion, but those two institutions made enough PPP loans to equal 20% or more of their total loan volumes. New analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence ranks the top 20 credit unions for PPP loans. The Small Business Administration closed the program on Aug. 8 and S&P compiled its data on Aug. 17 using second-quarter call reports from the National Credit Union Administration. Leading the pack were Mountain America Credit Union in Sandy, Utah, with $346.8 million in PPP loans and nearly $11 billion in assets, followed by the $1.3 billion-asset Greater Nevada CU in Carson City, which had $185.2 million in PPP loans. Third on the list was Indiana-based Notre Dame FCU, with about $940 million in assets and $179.6 million in PPP loans, or 24.44% of its total loans. Among those under $1 billion, Moline, Ill.-based Vibrant CU reported $152 million in PPP loans, or 20% of its total loans. Many of the nation’s largest credit unions were not among the top 20 PPP lenders. Only four institutions on the list, including Navy Federal and BECU, have assets of more than $10 million. With just under 7,000 loans, Mountain America was the busiest credit union PPP lender, followed by Navy Federal, with 5,157 loans. Four CUs on the list had fewer than 1,000 PPP loans, and Technology Credit Union had just 436 loans, though those totaled just over $99 million. Not surprisingly, credit unions' PPP loan volumes pale in comparison with some of the nation’s largest banks. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, PNC, Truist Financial and Wells Fargo are the five biggest lenders, according to S&P, accounting for more than $91 billion in loans as of Aug. 8. Through the end of June, credit unions as an industry originated about $8.34 billion, according to the firm. Some credit unions have joined the ranks of other PPP lenders by opting to sell off those loans rather than keep them on the books.
Citigroup cites $900 million human error. Lenders are puzzled. Citigroup is chalking up its wayward $900 million payment to lenders of the embattled cosmetics giant Revlon to one thing: human error. The bank — which said on Monday it has been upgrading its loan operations platform after a review it undertook last year — said it mistakenly transmitted the payments after an employee didn't manually select the correct system options in its loan operation software. But firms being sued to recoup the money said they haven't been able to get the bank to explain its mistake. The dueling court filings late Monday came after Citigroup has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars, but some of the lenders are balking at its demand to return the payments, saying that Revlon was in default on their loans and owed them the money. A group of lenders said in a letter to a Manhattan judge that the bank has declined their offer to conditionally return the money — "in exchange for a standard indemnity Citibank would pay back the funds were it later determined that Citibank was not entitled" to them. Administrative agents are generally tasked with collecting and distributing interest payments and providing other housekeeping services on a loan. In its filing Monday, Citigroup said the 2016 loan to Revlon allowed certain lenders to have all or a portion of their share of the loan be repurchased by Revlon. When a loan is repurchased like this, Citigroup said employees have to manually adjust the share of the loan held by the remaining lenders. In the case of the 2016 loan to Revlon, a Citigroup employee did not manually select the correct system options — allowing the loan to be paid back in full with interest. "Unfortunately, the manual checks of that selection also failed to detect the mistake," Citigroup said in its court filing. "Citibank has determined that the mistaken payments resulted from human error." The bank said it has put "significant, additional controls in place." "We take pride in the role that we play as a global leader in financial services and recognize that an operational error of this nature is unacceptable," Citigroup said in a statement. Citigroup had been acting as an agent for Revlon's loans, collecting funds from the company and distributing them to creditors. It said it had intended to make interest payments on Revlon's behalf but accidentally transferred a sum more than 100 times as big from its own accounts. The lenders said in their letter that Citigroup has yet to explain to them what happened. "On multiple occasions, Citibank has advised the undersigned counsel that it believed it would be able to demonstrate, through a prompt factual presentation, that the disputed payments were in fact innocuous mistakes," according to the filing. "Yet, as recently as this afternoon, Citibank advised that it was not yet prepared to shed light on or otherwise explain the putative mistake."
Are public-private partnerships the future of postal banking? — For years, bankers have opposed attempts by Democratic lawmakers to enable the U.S. Postal Service to provide financial services, arguing that the struggling government agency is not equipped to handle such an undertaking. But the industry's position appears to soften on the topic of banking services being offered at USPS sites through partnerships with financial institutions. Some industry observers said bankers may be more open to the partnership idea following a report that JPMorgan Chase had been in discussions with the agency before the coronavirus pandemic to offer ATMs and other banking services at post office locations. “We are not fans at all of the postal service getting into core banking functions,” said Rick Clayburgh, president and CEO of the North Dakota Bankers Association. “I think their focus should be on what their core delivery is and their core business model. The concept of having the post office serve as a potential spot for an ATM machine or even leasing out space isn’t necessarily a bad idea.” It is still unclear if any talks between JPMorgan Chase and the USPS will advance. A bank spokesperson said the pre-pandemic "conversations never materialized, and there are no imminent plans to continue the conversation or move forward.” But Peter Gwaltney, president and CEO of the North Carolina Bankers Association, said the USPS should even allow other banks to make bids to lease space at post office locations if the agency is interested in partnering with financial institutions. “If the postal service were to come up with a fair and equitable and transparent process, competitive bid, whatever we typically expect our government agencies to do to procure services, if they were to go through a process like that in that manner, then I think it would make sense,” Gwaltney said. “Particularly for communities where there is not a bank branch and there needs to be access to services, the post office makes sense.” The comments from industry representatives follow the report last week by Capitol Forum, citing anonymous sources, that said JPMorgan Chase and the USPS may have even discussed some type of exclusivity arrangment for the bank to provide banking services to postal employees. But the JPMorgan Chase spokesperson denied that the parties discussed exclusivity and said the talks had focused on leasing space for ATMs. “Our Real Estate group regularly explores a variety of locations for ATMs for the convenience of our customers,” the spokesperson said. “We had very early conversations with the Postal Service about what it might look like to lease unused exterior space for a small handful of ATMs." But the revelation of those talks ruffled some feathers among community bankers concerned about the idea of a large bank potentially negotiating a deal with such a large national organization as the USPS. The news prompted the Independent Community Bankers of America to write a letter to Postal Regulatory Commission Chair Robert Taub on Aug. 24, calling for an investigation into the discussions.
States entice fintechs by giving them freedom to experiment - Regulatory sandboxes, which provide a framework for startups to vet products with consumers before pursuing a license or jumping through onerous hoops, have caught on more slowly in the United States than in other countries like the United Kingdom, which pioneered the concept. Florida and West Virginia passed legislation in recent months, joining Arizona, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming as states with fintech sandboxes. Several other states, including Illinois and North Carolina, have bills in the works. Arizona, which in 2018 became the first state to offer a fintech sandbox, is the only one with active participants. But some early signs of success show that fintechs can emerge from this process with a promising product — and in Grain’s case, a bank partnership. The pandemic may increase consumers’ appetite for more innovative ideas.Grain has found that the burden of medical debt is a big motivation for people trying to rebuild damaged credit.“The market is changing and people are asking for different things in terms of financial services,” said Carl Memnon, Grain's chief operating officer. “The pandemic has exacerbated the need for mobile solutions.”States are innovating beyong the sandbox concept. The Multistate Money Services Businesses Licensing Agreement, or MMLA, which streamlines the money transmitter licensing process among 27 states, and regulatory sandboxes, “are not one-offs,” Catherine Pickels, communications director at the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, said in an email. “Experimentation is baked into this dynamic system of state regulation where states work together to harmonize and each state retains the ability to fulfill consumer protection and economic development mandates.”How to playEach state has its own rules concerning the eligibility, residency and reporting requirements for sandbox participants, but the broad goals are similar: to entice companies offering innovative financial products or services — including those in the areas of peer-to-peer lending, money transmission and cryptocurrency — to bring their business to the state.“This is supposed to be a much lighter touch regulatory regime so you can trial and pilot concepts,” said Andrew Lorentz, a lawyer at Davis Wright Tremaine. “There is a balance between protecting consumers and enabling innovation with time and cost taken up by licensing.”
Ex-Bank of America employees allege ‘extreme pressure' to sell credit cards - Seeking to avoid a repeat of the phony-accounts scandal at Wells Fargo, U.S. regulators in late 2016 opened examinations of the sales practices at other big banks. After the reviews were finished, the regulators assured outside observers that the banks had made positive changes and were now selling their products in ways that better aligned with the interests of their customers. One particular firm that drew the regulators’ attention was Bank of America. Between 2016 and 2018, BofA was among nearly 50 large and midsize banks that underwent a special regulatory exam, which focused on sales practices, by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. BofA was also singled out for close review by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which launched an investigation into whether the Charlotte, N.C.-based company opened credit card accounts without customers’ authorization, as Wells had done. But even as Bank of America’s nationwide sales practices were facing governmental scrutiny, company executives in one state were putting increased pressure on branch-based employees to sell more credit cards, according to interviews with former BofA employees, a wrongful termination lawsuit filed by one of those ex-employees and documents reviewed by American Banker. The interviews, documents and lawsuit raise questions about how much the sales culture at the nation’s second-largest bank has really changed, notwithstanding broad pronouncements by regulators about industrywide improvements. They open a window into BofA’s sales practices in the wake of the Wells Fargo scandal — and suggest that the company has found ways to continue its focus on aggressive sales even within the confines of new regulatory expectations. American Banker found no evidence that BofA or its employees opened accounts without customers’ knowledge or permission. Nonetheless, former BofA employees in Oregon depicted an environment in which credit card sales were paramount and little regard was paid to the question of whether particular customers wanted or needed a new piece of plastic, though executives did use language that was crafted to satisfy the bank’s regulators. Workers who failed to meet what they viewed as unrealistic sales goals were often disciplined or denied promotions, according to several former employees. A former Oregon-based branch manager, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that meeting sales numbers was literally all that mattered in his experience with Bank of America. This person had a background in retail sales, but none in banking, when he joined BofA in 2019. He said that he was sold on the job largely on the prospect of substantial bonuses that were tied to meeting sales numbers. But soon he was installed at a small branch that lagged others in revenue generation, and he was instructed to take disciplinary action against a recent hire who was not meeting her sales goals, he said. “You make your numbers, or you face repercussions,” he said.
As Exxon Mobil Leaves, The Dow Jones Industrial Average Loses Its Oldest Member --The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the classic blue-chip stock index. Exxon Mobil is an iconic blue-chip stock. But starting next week, the oil giant — currently the Dow's longest-tenured member — will be dropped from the influential index, which for many people is shorthand for the stock market. The change is driven by Apple's decision to split its stock, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, which is responsible for the Dow. Its impact on Exxon will be more symbolic than substantive. But it reflects just how Exxon, once dominant, has diminished. Many oil companies are struggling on the stock market as climate concerns mount, Silicon Valley stocks massively outperform petroleum and the coronavirus keeps global oil demand well below expectations. Exxon joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1928, as Standard Oil, one of companies descended from John D. Rockefeller's world-transforming oil monopoly. Mobil was another branch of Rockefeller's empire. The two companies by themselves were behemoths. When Exxon and Mobil merged in 1999, it was the biggest merger in history, creating the world's largest privately held oil company. For years, Exxon Mobil was the world's largest publicly traded company. Today, after the long rise of the tech giants and the abrupt collapse of the oil market, there are some three dozen companies more valuable than Exxon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index of 30 large U.S. companies, designed to roughly track the stock market performance of many sectors of the economy at once.
After 92 Years, Exxon Is Booted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average: A Nod to Sustainable Energy? - Pam Martens - Yesterday, S&P Dow Jones Indices made the stunning announcement that Exxon Mobil, which has been in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 92 years, will be replaced in the index before trading begins next Monday, August 31, by Salesforce, a company that went public in 2004. (Exxon Mobil became a component of the Dow in 1928 under the name Standard Oil of New Jersey.)Two other companies are also being replaced in the Dow before trading begins on Monday. The biotech company, Amgen, will replace the more traditional pharmaceutical company, Pfizer. Industrial technology products company, Honeywell International, will replace Raytheon Technologies. In its official press release announcing the changes, S&P Dow Jones Indices said this:“The index changes were prompted by DJIA constituent Apple Inc.’s decision to split its stock 4:1, which will reduce the index’s weight in the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) Information Technology sector. The announced changes help offset that reduction. They also help diversify the index by removing overlap between companies of similar scope and adding new types of businesses that better reflect the American economy.”Translation: we expect Exxon Mobil to be a drag on our index for a long-time, along with the price of crude oil. Since we already have Chevron dragging down the index, we’re booting out the other major oil component, Exxon Mobil. This could also be a wager that alternative forms of energy, that do not include fossil fuels, is where the world is moving, as well as the outlook for slower global growth that would require lower energy demand.The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a quirky model. It is a price-weighted index rather than a market cap-weighted index. This means that the more expensive the share price of the company, the heavier the weighting it gets in the Dow. And, the heavier the company’s weighting in the Dow, the more its share price impacts the overall price level of the Dow. Apple’s stock price closed yesterday at $503.43, making it the priciest stock in the Dow and, thus, the heaviest influencer of where the Dow itself closes. But when its 4-for-1 split becomes effective on Monday morning, August 31, Apple’s share price will be approximately one-quarter of where it closes on Friday, barring any major price moves at the opening of the market. Because Apple’s share price will be so much cheaper come Monday, its influence in the Dow will also wane as a result. Thus, there would appear to be an inclination to move laggards out and put some sexier names in the Dow to buttress its overall performance.
The Wealth of Corporations: Why Firms Have Zero Net Worth, and Why It Matters - Steve Roth --“Financial Assets = Liabilities.” It’s one of the great accounting-identity truisms of economic understanding — both among traditional, mainstream economists, and even (especially) among many heterodox, “accounting based” practitioners. It seems obvious: When a company issues and sells bonds, it posts a liability to its balance sheet; the bond buyers hold financial assets on theirs.[1] The problem is, that truism isn’t even close to true. The most obvious example is corporate equity shares — financial assets by any definition. The asset value of outstanding shares is vastly larger than firms’ book value, shareholders’ equity — the bottom-line balancing item on the liability side of firms’ balance sheets. Over the last half century, the market-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 has ranged between 2X and 5X The discrepancy exists even for U.S. Treasury bonds outstanding, though that discrepancy is quite small. As soon as a new financial asset is issued, at least if it’s tradeable in the markets, its price starts changing. Asset holders look at their brokerage statements, which are marked to market instant by instant, and see that they have more or less assets. Meanwhile the liabilities on issuers’ balance sheets remain (mostly) unchanged. Financial Assets ≠ Liabilities. Economists can hardly be blamed for this incorrect understanding. The national accounts themselves obscure this reality. If you look at the Flow[2]tables in the Fed’s quarterly Financial Accountsor “Flow of Funds,” for instance, you won’t find any accounting for changes in asset holdings due to changes in market prices — revaluation. So those tables can’t explain changes in assets and net worth from period to period. They’re accounting-incomplete — certainly so if you compare them to the Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income that publicly traded corporations are required to publish quarterly.The same is true, even more, of The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) — though those accounts make no claim or aspiration to such complete accounting; they don’t include anything resembling sectoral balance sheets.How can we make An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nationsabsent a comprehensive accounting of wealth accumulation? Happily, there is a set of complete, fully stock-flow-consistent sectoral accounting statements available, based on the System of National Accounts(SNA) standards developed and promulgated by the United Nations and allied institutions. Think of them as Generally Accepted Accounting Practices (GAAP), but for countries. In the U.S., the SNA-compliant accounts are called the Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts (IMAs). They were released only in 2006, with quarterly tables released in 2012 (annual-only for financial subsectors). Their data extends back to 1960. You’ll find them as the “S” tables at the end of the Fed’s quarterly “Z.1” or Financial Accounts report. They’re also very conveniently available in interactive form here, and all the sectoral tables are available in a single Excel workbook here.But that finally returns us to the title of this article: the net worth of firms. There is what seems to be a very particular oddity in the IMAs, which on examination yields a rather revelatory understanding of economies and economic statements:In the twenty-five years since 1995, according to the IMAs, the net worth of the U. S. nonfinancial firms sector has been positive in only two.
An Unprecedented 1,640 CEOs Departed in 2019; Now Execs Are Dumping Stock at Highest Pace Since 2006 -- Pam Martens - A rather fascinating picture is emerging that suggests that things were not as rosy in the U.S. economic landscape prior to the pandemic as President Donald Trump and his Director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, would have the public believe.Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. has been tracking CEO departures for the past 12 years. Its Vice President, Andrew Challenger, called the numbers for 2019 “staggering.”It was the highest number since their surveys began in 2002. A total of 1,640 CEOs headed for the exits last year. That was 156 more CEOs than those who left their post in 2008 – the year that Wall Street blazed a scorched earth trail through the U.S. economy.The number of CEOs that did not leave on their own accord last year was 101 out of the 1,640. According to the study, 15 CEOs left over allegations of professional misconduct; 20 left amid a scandal, “typically under investigations for financial wrongdoing or other legal issues”; 24 saw their positions terminated; 39 left due to a merger or acquisition; 3 left due to bankruptcy.CEOs of old, established companies have the clearest view of what is happening in the overall economy. They can compare sales growth to prior years and prior decades. They can spot negative or positive trends in the economy far ahead of the economic reports that the federal government releases to the public.When an outsized number of CEOs decide to cash out their stock options, grab their golden parachutes, and flee their corner offices – something smells.On top of that fishy smell comes a report from TrimTabs Investment Research that corporate insiders have reaped more than $50 billion in stock sales since May, putting insider selling on a pace not seen since 2006 – two years before the stock market and economic crash of 2008.The above two reports on corporate executive behavior are compatible with Wall Street On Parade’s reports that show that the current financial crisis began in the fall of 2019 – months before the first case of COVID-19 had emerged anywhere in the world. What triggered the financial crisis? The same kind of liquidity crisis on Wall Street that ushered in the crisis of 2008.
Jeff Bezos is now worth a whopping $200 billion - Jeff Bezos was already the world's richest man. Now his net worth has skyrocketed once again, setting another new record. On Wednesday, the Amazon CEO's wealth reached an estimated $202 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires index, as the company's shares soared. That's up about $87 billion since January. The explosive growth in Bezos' fortune is being driven by his holdings in Amazon (AMZN). The company's stock is up about 25% over the last three months and 86% so far this year, according to data from Refinitiv. Bezos, who founded Amazon in 1994, keeps breaking records with his wealth. In 2017, he became the richest person on the planet. And last month, his estimated net worth jumped to almost $172 billion, marking a new global high. Looking beyond everyday solutions to the post-Covid-19 green recovery. The pandemic might have lowered emissions, but it’ll take more than this temporary fix to have a lasting impact. The billionaire isn't alone — other tech tycoons have been getting much wealthier throughout the pandemic as demand for their companies' goods and services continue to grow. Earlier this month, Facebook (FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg was dubbed a "centibillionaire," as his wealth surpassed $100 billion. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, with a net worth of $96 billion, is close to achieving that extraordinary status. Microsoft (MSFT) founder Bill Gates has already made it. And Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook also became a billionaire recently as shares of his company — now the world's most valuable — have soared. Cook is a rare example of an executive who didn't help found their company breaking into the ranks of the super rich.
CFPB seeks comment on impact of credit card rules— The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is soliciting public feedback on trends in the consumer credit card market and specifically how a 2009 landmark credit card reform law has affected small issuers. The Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act, known as the CARD Act, reduced retroactive interest rate hikes on existing card debt as well as exorbitant fees for late payments and shortened billing cycles. The Federal Reserve later finalized a set of rules between 2009 and 2011 to implement parts of the law, which amended Regulation Z of the Truth in Lending Act, a statute that aims to protect consumers from predatory practices. As part of a mandate that requires the CFPB to review rules 10 years after they are enacted, the agency issued a request for information Tuesday to examine how the CARD Act rules have affected both the credit card market and small issuers. The CFPB may decide to revise or rescind some of the regulations as a result of the review, the agency said in a press release. Specifically, the CFPB is asking for the public to comment on the economic impact of the CARD Act rules on “small entities” and how those effects could be alleviated. The agency is also asking for input on how issuers have changed their pricing, marketing, underwriting, deferment and forbearance practices; what trends are emerging in the debt settlement industry; and what unfair, deceptive or abusive practices exist in the credit card market. The CFPB’s review of the credit card market takes place every two years. Although the reviews were not done as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the agency said in its request for information that it understands that the feedback it receives will reflect the conditions brought on by the pandemic. Comments will be accepted for 60 days after the request for information is published in the Federal Register.
GSE, fair-lending policies could look radically different if Biden wins— Neither President Donald Trump nor Democratic nominee Joe Biden has made housing finance a focus of their campaigns, but the upcoming election could have a huge impact on how the federal government reforms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, addresses the high costs of homeownership and enforces fair-lending laws. Given a second term, the Trump administration would likely continue steps to deregulate the mortgage industry and plow ahead with a plan to reprivatize the government-sponsored enterprises, experts say. But in a Biden administration, Obama-era efforts to toughen regulatory standards for the mortgage sector and low the cost of housing could be renewed. Housing advocates and the mortgage industry see housing policies taking sharply divergent paths depending on whether Trump or Biden wins in November. A Trump victory would intensify the administration's continuing efforts to reopen various consumer-focused laws to make them more palatable to the industry, A second Trump term “will be an attempt to peel back the entire regulatory framework of enacted fair housing legislation, including the Fair Housing Act itself, and all the related regulations and the Community Reinvestment Act, and potentially, moving into areas like the Equal Credit Opportunity Act,” Dworkin said. “All of this legislation is covered in the rhetoric that we’ve seen as part of the campaign, and there’s really no reason to believe that in the second term, it won’t be actively pursued,” he said. But lenders worry that Biden's rhetoric is reminiscent of how the Obama administration cracked down on the industry after the 2008 financial crisis. If Biden is elected, much of what his administration can do with the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will depend on the Supreme Court, which is set to hear a case challenging the single-director structure of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. FHFA Director Mark Calabria was sworn in last April for a five-year term, but his tenure could be dashed should Biden win and the high court rule that a president has the ability to fire the FHFA director at will. Calabria has made it his mission as director to free the GSEs from conservatorship, a process that he has said could take until the end of his term in 2024. The FHFA under Calabria has already taken several steps to shore up Fannie and Freddie’s capital position, proposing a post-conservatorship capital framework and striking an agreement with the Treasury Department to raise the minimum amount of earnings the GSEs are able to retain. The Trump administration also published a report last year detailing how it would reform the entire housing finance system.
Agencies extend freeze on foreclosures and evictions to end of year— The Federal Housing Finance Agency is extending its moratorium on foreclosures for single-family loans and evictions for real-estate-owned properties until the end of the year. Previously, the moratorium for properties backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was set to expire Aug. 31. It is the third time the agency has prolonged the moratorium, which was intended to help homeowners and renters affected by the coronavirus pandemic. The Federal Housing Administration also announced Thursday that it is extending its foreclosure and eviction moratorium until the end of the year. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act also provided for an eviction moratorium on single-family, non-REO properties, but that moratorium expired July 24. “To help keep borrowers in their homes during the pandemic, FHFA is extending the [government-sponsored] enterprises’ foreclosure and eviction moratorium through the end of 2020,” FHFA Director Mark Calabria said in a press release. “This protects more than 28 million homeowners with an enterprise-backed mortgage.” The CARES Act, which Congress passed in March, allowed for a 60-day moratorium on foreclosures and evictions on properties financed through federally backed mortgages. But the FHFA and the FHA also imposed their own moratoriums independent of the CARES Act. The FHFA said it had estimated that Fannie and Freddie would take losses of $1.1 billion to $1.7 billion as a result of the foreclosure and eviction moratorium. The government-sponsored enterprises are imposing an “adverse market fee” on refinances starting Dec. 1 in an attempt to recoup projected losses from its coronavirus-related actions.
Fannie and Freddie pushing COVID refi fee to December - — The Federal Housing Finance Agency is delaying a Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-imposed fee on refinanced mortgages set to start next week until Dec. 1 after intense backlash from the mortgage industry. The government-sponsored enterprises said Aug. 12 they would start charging an additional “adverse market fee” of 0.5% on refis due to the economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic. But the short notice and estimates that the fee could lead to significant costs for consumers looking to refinance riled both lawmakers and mortgage lenders. They urged the FHFA to reconsider the policy. The fee “is necessary to cover projected COVID-19 losses of at least $6 billion at the enterprises,” the FHFA said in a news release Tuesday. The fee will go into effect as planned in December unless the agency can find another way to recoup projected losses. Fannie and Freddie will also exempt mortgage loans with a balance of less than $125,000 from the fee when it goes into effect Dec. 1, the agency said. The policy resembles a similar fee that the companies implemented during the financial crisis. However, the two situations are somewhat different. The companies imposed the 2008 fee as they faced dramatic losses from the housing crash. Soon after they announced that fee, the GSEs were placed in government conservatorship, and they remain in conservatorship. By comparison, today the GSEs already have the financial backing of the U.S. government, and the mortgage sector to date has limited effects from the coronavirus pandemic. The companies' second-quarter earnings were a combined $4.33 billion. Fannie CEO Hugh Frater and Freddie CEO David Brickman pushed back on some of the criticism of the fee last week, issuing a joint statement arguing that lenders could eat the cost of the fee themselves instead of passing it on to borrowers. “Contrary to much of the criticism we have received since making this announcement, this will generally not cause mortgage payments to ‘go up,’ ” they said. “The fee applies only to refinancing borrowers, who almost always use a refinancing to lower their monthly rate.”
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased in July, Highest Since Feb 2013 - Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in July was 3.12%, up from 2.48% in June. Freddie's rate is up from 0.61% in July 2019.This is the highest serious delinquency rate since February 2013. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines Slightly to 7.20%" -- Note: This is as of August 16th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines Slightly to 7.20% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 7.21% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 7.20% as of August 16, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans....“The share of loans in forbearance declined for the tenth week in a row, but the rate of improvement has slowed markedly. The extremely high rate of initial claims for unemployment insurance and high level of unemployment remain a concern, and are indications of the challenges many households are facing,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “While new forbearance requests remain low, particularly for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, the pace of exits from forbearance has declined for two straight weeks.”By stage, 37.91% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 61.34% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 0.75% are forbearance re-entries. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last ten weeks.The MBA notes: "Weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased to 0.10 percent from 0.11 percent the previous week."There hasn't been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans "Improve Slightly" -Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of August 25th. From Forbearances Improve Slightly After holding flat last week, the total number of mortgages in active forbearance improved slightly. Forbearances ticked down by just 1,000 over the past week, making the second consecutive week of basically zero net improvement. This is not unexpected, as improvement has slowed toward the end of each of the past several months. It has generally followed a stair-step progression with the most improvement seen at the beginning of the month and slowing as we move toward the end. According to Black Knight’s McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker, as of August 25, 3.9 million homeowners remain in active forbearance, representing 7.4% of all active mortgages. This is unchanged from last week (or the week prior). Together, they represent $828 billion in unpaid principal. Of these, 72% have had their terms extended.As we’ve discussed previously, there are a number of factors that continue to represent significant uncertainty as we move forward, including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the expiration of expanded unemployment benefits last month. CR Note: I'm still expecting another disaster relief package soon, but we might see an increase in forbearance activity in the coming weeks as we wait for additional relief.
NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Decline in Households Paying Rent --From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 90 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of August 20 \: The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 90 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by August 20 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.This is a 2.1-percentage point, or 237,056 -household decrease from the share who paid rent through August 20, 2019 and compares to 91.3 percent that had paid by July 20, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.“Lawmakers in Congress and the Administration need to come back to the table and work together on comprehensive legislation that protects and supports tens of millions of American renters by extending unemployment benefits and providing desperately needed rental assistance,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President. “The industry remains encouraged by the degree residents have prioritized their housing obligations so far, but each passing day means more distress for individuals and families, and greater risk for the nation’s housing sector. If policymakers want to prevent a health and economic crisis from quickly evolving into a housing crisis, they should act quickly to extend financial assistance to renters.” CR Note: This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties. It appears fewer people are paying their rent this year compared to last year - down 2.1 percentage points from a year ago - and also down 1.3 percentage points compared to last month (July 2020). This hasn't fallen off a cliff - yet. People were still receiving the extra unemployment benefits for most of July, and were able to make their August rent payment. Without additional disaster relief, I expect more people will miss their September rent payment.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 6.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 21, 2020. ... The Refinance Index decreased 10 percent from the previous week and was 34 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 33 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates were mixed last week, but the rates for 30-year fixed mortgages and 15-year fixed mortgages declined. Despite the lower rates, conventional refinance applications fell 11 percent and government refinance applications fell 6 percent, which pushed the total refinance index to its lowest weekly level since July,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The home purchase market remains a bright spot for the overall economy. Purchase applications were essentially unchanged but were 33 percent higher than a year ago – the 14th straight week of year-over-year gains. Mortgage rates at record lows and households looking for more space are driving this summer’s surge in demand.”... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to 3.11 percent from 3.13 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans."There's Too Much Product": Miami Has 30 Months' Of Unsold Condos After Covid Ravages Its Economy---Miami is seeing a massive surge in supply in its condo market as Covid continues to have profound economic effects in South Florida, according to a new report from The Real Deal. The market now has a glut of 30 months worth of unsold condos and 100 months worth of luxury units (units over $1 million), according to an analysis of Multiple Listing Service data by Condo Vultures Realty. The data is ex-pre-construction sales and consists of "the area between Edgewater and Brickell, east of I-95". The condo data is based on 711 sales that closed in the first 6 months of this year, which averages out to about 119 sales per month. As of this week, there are still 3,579 condo listings awaiting suitors in Miami. The average asking price is about $758,000 - which contrasts sharply with the average closing price of $511,000 this year. The luxury market is in even worse shape than the condo market: only 36 units sold in the first 6 months of the year. There are about 600 luxury condos on the market asking an average of $2.05 million. 26 sales are pending. Peter Zalewski, principal at Condo Vultures Realty, told The Real Deal: “This is giving me flashbacks to 12 years ago in 2007, when the Miami condo market started to go bad. Early indications are that this pandemic combined with the oversupply that already existed is going to turn this into a serious buyer’s market.” Shadow inventory, consisting of units that individual landlords put on the market, which are typically condos, and those that institutional owners will lease out, oftentimes without using the MLS, is also on the rise, according to Zalewski. He says that individual condo landlords and institutional owners are "dropping their prices and offering deals on units". There is about 6 months of supply of shadow rental units listed on the MLS, the report says. An average of 541 leases per month were signed in the first six months of the year. 3,167 remain on the market for rent.
Hurricane Laura puts $88 billions' worth of homes at risk | National Mortgage News -Hurricane Laura puts 432K homes worth $88 billion at risk-Damage from Hurricane Laura's surge could potentially devastate 432,810 residential properties totaling over $88.6 billion in reconstruction cost value across Texas and Louisiana, according to CoreLogic.But those estimates assume an expected landfall as a Category 3 hurricane. On Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service said the hurricane had already reached Category 3 and could rise to Category 4 by the time it makes landfall Wednesday night. In that scenario, the numbers increase to worst-case highs of 496,966 homes and $125 billion. It would go down to 223,573 and $44.2 billion as a Category 2.Projections show Laura reaching the Gulf Coast by Wednesday night and moving inland by Thursday morning.”The coincidence of two catastrophes — a damaging hurricane season and the ongoing global pandemic — underscores the importance of the correct valuation of reconstruction cost, one of the core tenets of property insurance," Tom Larsen, principal of insurance solutions at CoreLogic, said in a press release. "Homeowners, mortgage lenders and insurers need to work together to ensure properties are fully protected and insured. CoreLogic data has found a correlation in mortgage delinquencies and catastrophes, which could point to a serious issue of underinsurance trends." Hurricane season could bring about an entirely new wave of distressed loans needing to be addressed in addition to mortgages under the coronavirus-related moratoria. In the Category 3 scenario, the Houston metro area has both the highest amount of at-risk homes and reconstruction costs facing surge damage at 126,343 properties and just over $26 billion. Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas, follows with 77,789 properties and $14.1 billion in value. The Houma-Thibodaux, La., housing market is next in line with 74,112 homes at risk worth $15.3 billion in RCV.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.3% year-over-year in June -S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3 month average of April, May and June prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 4.3% Annual Home Price Gain in June: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.3% annual gain in June, no change from the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.8%, down from 3.0% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.5% year-over-year gain, down from 3.6% in the previous month.Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in June. Phoenix led the way with a 9.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 6.5% increase and Tampa with a 5.9% increase. Five of the 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending June 2020 versus the year ending May 2020.The National Index posted a 0.6% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively before seasonal adjustment in June. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, while the 10- City Composite posted a decrease of 0.1% and the 20-City Composite did not post any gains. In June, 16 of 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 12 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment. “The National Composite Index rose by 4.3% in June 2020, as it had also done in May (June’s growth was slightly lower in the 10- and 20-City Composites, which were up 2.8% and 3.5%, respectively). More data will be required to understand whether the market resumes its previous path of accelerating prices, continues to decelerate, or remains stable. That said, it’s important to bear in mind that deceleration is quite different from an environment in which prices actually fall.The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).The National index is 18.1% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.2% (SA) in June. The National index is up 60% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).
FHFA House Price Index: Up 0.9% in June - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for June. Here is the opening of the press release: – U.S. house prices rose 5.4 percent from the second quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices were up 0.8 percent in the second quarter of 2019. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was up 0.9 percent from May.“Home prices grew by 5.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020 compared to a year ago, despite the impacts of COVID-19.” said Dr. Lynn Fisher, Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics at FHFA. “Although house prices fell slightly in May relative to April, in June prices rebounded by 0.9 percent over the month as local economies re-opened and transactions picked up again. Four Census Divisions showed strong early summer gains with month-over-month growth of one percent or more in June.” The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.
Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Year-over-year House Price Growth to Increase Slightly in July -The Case-Shiller house price indexes for June were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: June Case-Shiller Results and July Forecast: Housing Continues to Withstand Pandemic The June Case-Shiller numbers show the housing market continues to withstand the pandemic-driven blows that have caused so many other facets of the economy to suffer. ...Mortgage rates and for-sale inventory are each plumbing new lows, ratcheting up competition for the few homes on the market. That’s placed consistent upward pressure on home prices, a trend that has held through the summer. While recent data suggest headwinds such as the enduring spread of the coronavirus and uncertainty surrounding the next round of relief payments could jeopardize the path of the economic recovery, these concerns haven’t materialized in home prices to this point. It could be that the housing market will eventually suffer as these concerns linger, but it appears that low rates are here to stay for now, which should continue to send prices higher.Annual growth in July as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to speed up slightly in the 10- and 20-city indices, and stay steady in the national index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, September 29. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 4.4% in July, up from 4.3% in June (table says 4.4% in June, but CS reported a 4.3% gain). The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 3.6% YoY in July from 3.5% in June, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 2.9% YoY compared to 2.8% YoY in June.
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 5.9% in July -- From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Rise 5.9% in July - The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, rose 5.9% to 122.1 in July. Year-over-year, contract signings rose 15.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....The Northeast PHSI grew 25.2% to 112.3 in July, a 20.6% jump from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index rose 3.3% to 114.6 last month, up 15.4% from July 2019.Pending home sales in the South increased 0.9% to an index of 142.0 in July, up 14.9% from July 2019. The index in the West rose 6.8% in July to 106.4, up 13.2% from a year ago. This was slightly above expectations for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in August and September.
Millennials Help Power This Year’s Housing-Market Rebound – WSJ - Millennials, long viewed as perennial home renters who were reluctant or unable to buy, are now emerging as a driving force in the U.S. housing market’s recent recovery. Demand from millennials, who today range from their mid-20s to late 30s, has been increasingly important to the housing market since at least the middle of the last decade. But more recently, these new homeowners have been pushing aside older generations to become an even bigger influence. Millennials reached a housing milestone early last year when the group first accounted for more than half of all new home loans, and they consistently held above that level in the first months of this year, the most recent period for which data are available, according to Realtor.com. The generation made up 38% of home buyers in the year that ended July 2019, up from 32% in 2015, according to the National Association of Realtors. The group last year also surpassed baby boomers as the biggest living adult generation in the U.S., according to the Pew Research Center. The largest cohort of millennial births was in 1990, Pew said, meaning that group turns 30 sometime this year. “We anticipate as they turn 31 and 32, we’ll just see homebuying demand grow,” said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp. Millennials could be responsible for at least 15 million home sales in the next decade, the firm said. Rising millennial homeownership challenges years of speculation after the 2007-09 recession that millennials would be stuck renting perpetually, hampered by student-loan debt and wary of the housing market after the foreclosure crisis. That raised questions about how millennials would build nest eggs, because homeownership has commonly been viewed as a pillar of wealth creation. Now, brokers and economists say millennials’ homebuying interest was simply delayed. Older millennials are marrying and having children later in life than previous generations, after finishing their education and building up savings. That growing demand is compounded by younger millennials, who are now entering their 30s and starting to buy homes more actively. That is more in line with the ages at which many baby boomers and Generation X, the group born before millennials, began buying homes. “Millennials, they’re roaring into homebuying age,” said Rick Arvielo, chief executive of mortgage lender New American Funding. “What the industry’s been talking about for a decade is whether they’re going to follow their predecessor generations in terms of their desire to own homes,” he said, adding, “Yeah, they do—they have the same desires.”
New Home Sales increased to 901,000 Annual Rate in July -The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 901 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined. Sales of new single-family houses in July 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 901,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 13.9 percent above the revised June rate of 791,000 and is 36.3 percent above the July 2019 estimate of 661,000.The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. This is the highest sales rate since 2007.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in July to 4.0 months from 5.5 months in June. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.This is in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal)."The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 299,000. This represents a supply of 4.0 months at the current sales rate."Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973. The inventory of completed homes for sale is still somewhat low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is close to normal.The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In July 2020 (red column), 78 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 55 thousand homes were sold in July.The all time high for July was 117 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for July was 26 thousand in 2010.This was above expectations of 786 thousand sales SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined.
More evidence that housing has roared back - This morning we got the final important July housing reports: new home sales and house prices. New single home sales are very volatile and heavily revised, so it is always wise to take the initial report with a grain of salt. On the other hand, it is the most leading of all the reports. With that caveat, this morning’s report of 901,000 sales annualized is the highest reading since December 2006! It is also in line with peak home sales in all periods prior to the 2000s housing bubble: The below graph focuses on the last 8 years, and compares with the much less volatile single family permits (red, right scale): The bottom line is that the huge rebound is legitimate and not based on an outlier report. House prices lag sales, turning higher or lower with a delay. that was certainly borne out by both the July Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, shown YoY below: House price appreciation is down from earlier this year, but can be expected to accelerate shortly. That’s what record all-time low mortgage rates will do.
A few Comments on July New Home Sales – McBride_ New home sales for July were reported at 901,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised up, combined. This was well above consensus expectations, and this was the highest sales rate since 2007. Clearly low mortgages rates, and low sales in March and April (due to the pandemic) have led to a bounce back in sales in May, June and July. Favorable demographics (something I wrote about many times over the last decade) and a surging stock market have probably helped new home sales too.Note that sales are reported on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales in July NSA were up 3 thousand from June, but this translates into an increase from 791,000 SAAR in June to 901,000 SAAR in July.Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 901,000 Annual Rate in July. This graph shows new home sales for 2019 and 2020 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).New home sales were up 36.3% year-over-year (YoY) in July. Year-to-date (YTD) sales are up 8.2%.And on inventory: since new home sales are reported when the contract is signed - even if the home hasn't been started - new home sales are not limited by inventory. Inventory for new home sales is important in that it means there will be more housing starts if inventory is low - and fewer starts if inventory is too high (not now). Important: No one should get too excited. Many years ago, I wrote several articles about how new home sales and housing starts (especially single family starts) were some of the best leading indicators for the economy. However, I've noted that there are times when this isn't true. NOW is one of those times. Currently the course of the economy will be determined by the course of the virus, and New Home Sales tell us nothing about the future of the pandemic. Without the pandemic, I'd be very positive about this report.
New Home Prices -As part of the new home sales report released yesterday, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and median prices. From the Census Bureau: "The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2020 was $330,600. The average sales price was $391,300." The following graph shows the median and average new home prices. During the housing bust, the builders had to build smaller and less expensive homes to compete with all the distressed sales. When housing started to recovery - with limited finished lots in recovering areas - builders moved to higher price points to maximize profits. The average price in July 2020 was $391,300, up 2.5% from June, and down 2.9% from the peak in 2017. The median price was $330,600, down 1.9% from June, and down 3.9% from the peak in 2017.The average and median house prices have mostly moved sideways since 2017 due to home builders offering more lower priced homes.The second graph shows the percent of new homes sold by price. Very few new homes sold were under $150K in April 2020. This is down from 30% in 2002. In general, the under $150K bracket is going away. The $400K+ bracket increased significantly since the housing recovery started, but has been holding steady recently - and declined over the last year. A majority of new homes (about 62%) in the U.S., are in the $200K to $400K range.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 30.3% Year-over-year, "Fell to a three-week low"--From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 22 AugustU.S. hotel occupancy fell to a three-week low during the period of 16-22 August, according to the latest data from STR. 16-22 August 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
• Occupancy: 48.8% (-30.3%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$100.08 (-22.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$48.81 (-46.1%)
The prior week, the industry had reached 50% occupancy for the first time since mid-March. Lower occupancy came as U.S. room demand declined week over week for the first time since mid-April. Reflective of school openings and less vacation travel, the industry sold 492,000 fewer room nights than the previous week, which represented a decrease of 2.7%. STR projects similar challenges with no corporate demand to replace leisure demand lost to the beginning of the school year.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.
Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 61% YoY in July - From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: July 2020 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics The destination hosted an estimated 1.4M visitors in July, about 40% of last year's levels but up from the approximately 1.1M visitors hosted in June. The convention segment continued to register no measurable volume with continued mandated restrictions on group sizes.With open properties representing an inventory of 123,684 rooms*, total occupancy reached 42.5% for the month while weekend occupancy came in at 54.4% and midweek occupancy reached 36.9%. * Reflects weighted average of daily room tallies. Here is the data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. The blue and red bars are monthly visitor traffic (left scale) for 2019 and 2020. The dashed blue and orange lines are convention attendance (right scale). Convention traffic in July was down 100% compared to July 2019. And visitor traffic was down 61% YoY.The casinos started to reopen on June 4th (it appears about 80% of rooms have now opened).
Over Half Of San Francisco Storefronts Closed As Pandemic Downturn Rages - Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson warned a "growth scare" for markets could be imminent, if that is in the "next several weeks/months." If so, then all the instabilities of a slowing recovery, deteriorating labor market, waning consumer sentiment, and small business massacre will come out of the woodwork and shock investors. On a micro-level, we want to share with readers a genuinely shocking, and deep economic scarring story developing in San Francisco. BREAKING: Most San Francisco @Gap stores close permanently, including Market Street flagship.@Shwanika has the details here: https://t.co/DRHJtEsc3s — San Francisco Chronicle (@sfchronicle) August 17, 2020 According to CBS San Francisco, citing a new survey via the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, "more than half of all storefronts in San Francisco are no longer in business due to COVID-19." "The survey showed only 46 percent of storefront businesses in San Francisco that were open at the beginning of the pandemic are still operating," said Jay Cheng, spokesman of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce. Cheng said 1,300 stores have closed in recent months, with about 1,200 still open. "There's a lot of reasons for that. If you're a fitness studio, you can't open because of the pandemic. If you're a retail space, you could open, but you might have decided that there isn't enough foot traffic or enough customer base to make that worthwhile to reopen. So it's become a very difficult situation," he said.
Personal Income increased 0.4% in July, Spending increased 1.9%, Core PCE increased 0.3% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July: Personal income increased $70.5 billion (0.4 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $39.9 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $267.6 billion (1.9 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in July and Real PCE increased 1.6 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.The July PCE price index increased 1.0 percent year-over-year and the July PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.3 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2020 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.The increase in personal income and the increase in PCE were below expectations. Even if PCE stayed at this level in August and September, PCE growth would be around 35% annualized compared to Q2 (since PCE was so low in April). But PCE would still be far below the levels at the beginning of 2020.
Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments - Transfer payments decreased by $70 billion in July, but were still $1.7 trillion (on SAAR basis) above the February level. Most of the increase in transfer payments - compared to the level prior to the crisis - is now from unemployment insurance. However, there will be sharp decline in unemployment insurance in August.This table shows the amount of unemployment insurance and "Other" transfer payments since February 2020 (pre-crisis level). The increase in "Other" was mostly due to other parts of the CARES Act such as the $1,200 one time payment.A key measure of the health of the economy (Used by NBER in recession dating) is Real Personal Income less Transfer payments.This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments since 1990.This measure of economic activity increased 0.7% in July, compared to June, and was down 5.0% compared to February 2020 (previous peak). Another way to look at this data is as a percent of the previous peak.Real personal income less transfer payments was off 8.3% in April. This was a larger decline than the worst of the great recession.Currently personal income less transfer payments are still off 5.0% (see red arrow).
Consumer Confidence Down for Second Consecutive Month -The headline number of 84.8 was a decrease from the final reading of 91.7 for June. Today's number was below theInvesting.com consensus of 93.0. “Consumer Confidence declined in August for the second consecutive month,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index decreased sharply, with consumers stating that both business and employment conditions had deteriorated over the past month. Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook, and their financial prospects, also declined and continues on a downward path. Consumer spending has rebounded in recent months but increasing concerns amongst consumers about the economic outlook and their financial well-being will likely cause spending to cool in the months ahead. Read more The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.
August Vehicle Sales Forecast: 11% Year-over-year Decline - From Wards: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales & Inventory Forecast, August 2020 (pay content) This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for August (Red). Sales have bounced back from the April low, but are still down sharply year-over-year. The Wards forecast of 15.2 million SAAR, would be up 4.7% from July, and down 11% from August 2019. This would put sales in 2020, through August, down about 20% compared to the same period in 2019.
Survey: One-fifth of small businesses will close if conditions don't improve - One in every five small businesses say they will not be able to stay open if economic conditions don't improve in the next six months, and a similar number say they can only last a year. The survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, a trade group for small businesses, found that while many businesses expected to stay afloat, the pandemic was hitting significant numbers in devastating ways. “The health crisis is not impacting small businesses equally,” said Holly Wade, NFIB director of research and policy analysis. The pandemic, she said, was forcing small businesses to adapt to abrupt shifts in consumer behavior, ever-changing information on health and safety and new rules and regulations from varying levels of government. But just being able to cover their bills remains the central concern. About half of the businesses surveyed had seen a decline of over 25 percent in sales since the pandemic began, and about a fifth have seen sales drop by over 50 percent. "Many of them still need more financial assistance just to keep their doors open and staff on payroll,” said Wade. Of the businesses that had taken a Paycheck Protection Program loan — the program offering forgivable emergency loans to help small businesses keep their workers on the books — 84 percent had already used the entirety of the loan. Almost half, 47 percent, said they would need more help in the coming year, and 44 percent said they would want to apply for a second PPP loan. The program, however, expired at the end of July, and Congress has failed to agree on a relief package that would extend the program for potential return loans. Another key controversy in the deadlocked negotiations is the level of unemployment insurance. Republicans want to reduce the $600 in additional weekly benefits that ran from April through July, arguing that it makes returning to work less attractive. Some 32 percent of the survey respondents agreed, saying the benefit had made it harder to hire or re-hire workers, though 9 percent noted that their customers had more money to spend as a result. Just over half said they had moderate or serious concerns over legal action related to the pandemic. The GOP has made COVID-related liability a central demand in the negotiations.
U.S. Consumer Spending Rose More Slowly in July - U.S. consumers boosted their spending in July, but more slowly than in prior months as new coronavirus infections rose and the expiration of enhanced unemployment checks loomed.“Spending numbers have come back more than the economy as a whole, with the help of a lot of fiscal support,” said Jim O’Sullivan, an economist at TD Securities. “The question going forward is as fiscal support wanes, to what extent will it weaken.”Personal-consumption expenditures, a measure of household spending on everything from haircuts to new cars, increased a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in July from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday. That marked a slowdown from the previous two months when it picked up strongly after collapsing during the coronavirus-related shutdowns of parts of the economy. Economists say the wave of new coronavirus cases that swept the U.S. during July weakened the nascent economic recovery, even though nearly two million Americans joined the workforce. Recent data through August from private firms suggest consumer spending overall appears to have made up much of the ground lost during the worst of the pandemic, though the recovery is uneven across the country and might have flattened out.Earnest Research, a data analytics firm tracking U.S. consumer spending, found no real acceleration in total spending from July to August and significant disparities from state to state. Grocery shoppers cut back on spending in August, data show, a sign many Americans are hurting for cash as the federal unemployment stimulus remains on hold for most recipients. Restaurant bookings and travel spending also remain depressed. Meanwhile, many households are still earning more than they are spending during the pandemic, which economists say could fuel consumer spending in coming months. The personal saving rate was 17.8% in July, down from 19.2% in June and 24.6% in May but well above the 7.6% rate seen in January.Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output, making it a key driver of the economy. Friday’s report showed overall consumer spending in July remained 4.6% below February’s prepandemic level.But the report also confirmed recent data showing Americans’ retail shopping through July had surpassed prepandemic levels.
With Stimulus Checks on Hold, Americans Are Spending Less at the Grocery Store – WSJ - Grocery shoppers are cutting back on spending, data show, a sign that Americans are hurting for cash as the federal unemployment stimulus remains on hold for most recipients. The emerging shift in food spending comes after the $600 in weekly additional unemployment checks expired in July. It has also prompted grocery stores to bring back something customers haven’t seen much of during the pandemic: discounts. Lump-sum stimulus checks consumers received in the spring and the extra unemployment money for people who lost their jobs in the pandemic have helped shore up consumer businesses amid widespread shutdowns and millions of workers claiming unemployment. While consumer spending rebounded between May and July following a plunge earlier in the spring, analysts say that a broader pullback on grocery spending could mean lower sales for more discretionary items such as clothes and cars. Walmart Inc. executives said consumers are nervous about their finances and job security in the absence of stimulus aid, leading to cutbacks in spending. “People perceive they’re spending more money on food, despite eating out less,” said Walmart U.S. Chief Executive John Furner on a conference call last week. “So we’ll be thoughtful about the way we plan the rest of the year and react to changes in the trends we see from our shoppers.” Other retailers, such as Stop & Shop Supermarket LLC, also expect consumer spending growth to be tempered in the months ahead by economic uncertainty and the continued disruption of sporting events, restaurant dining and other facets of pre-pandemic life.
Why Are There Still Not Enough Paper Towels? – WSJ - Blame lean manufacturing. A decadeslong effort to eke out more profit by keeping inventory low left many manufacturers unprepared when Covid-19 struck. And production is unlikely to ramp up significantly any time soon. The United States of America, heralded as the land of plenty, still doesn’t have enough paper towels.Long after the coronavirus sparked a run on them, retailers can’t keep their shelves full. Target.com had no Bounty paper towels for delivery this week, though it had some at certain stores. At Amazon.com, a seller was charging $44.95 for a pack that normally goes for $15.An average of 21% of household paper products were out of stock at U.S. stores as of Aug. 9, according to research firm IRI.The situation isn’t likely to abate soon, because producers have no plans to build new manufacturing capacity. The central piece of the machinery needed to make paper towels takes years to assemble. Americans have faced many stresses in the pandemic, of which paper-towel scarcity is hardly among the worst. Yet the forces behind the shortage nearly six months into the crisis help explain the broad lack of U.S. preparedness that has made the pandemic worse than it might have been. The scarcity is rooted in a decadeslong quest by businesses at all levels, handling many different products, to eke out more profit by operating with almost no slack. Make only what you can sell quickly. Order only enough materials to keep production lines going. Have only enough railcars for a day’s worth of output. Stock only enough items on a shelf to last till the next batch arrives.The concept, known as lean manufacturing or just-in-time inventory, was born in the hyperefficient Japanese automotive industry in the 1970s and became a religion for many American CEOs. It spread first to Detroit, then to other U.S. manufacturers and finally to other industries, from distribution to retailing.
Americans Sense Something Is Wrong- Gun Sales Up 72% - Gun sales were up 72% compared to this time last year, with first-time buyers leading the pack. Americans are likely sensing that something is horribly wrong with the rigged system we are forced to live under. According to a report by the Washington Post, the National Sports Shooting Foundation says that first-time gun buyers played a heavy role in the increase. Women and black Americans have also shown interest in arming themselves this year. “Nearly 5 million Americans purchased a firearm for the very first time in 2020. NSSF surveyed firearm retailers which reported that 40% of sales were conducted to purchasers who have never previously owned a firearm,” the organization said in its analysis, which tracked background checks associated with the sale of a firearm reported by the FBI’s National Instant Background Check System.The organization said this uptick in purchases by those who have not owned a gun before, equates to nearly 5 million first-time gun owners in the first seven months of 2020. “This is a tectonic shift in the firearm and ammunition industry marketplace and complete transformation of today’s gun-owning community,” said Lawrence G. Keane, a senior vice president at the foundation.“These first-time buyers represent a group of people who, until now, were agnostic regarding firearm ownership. That’s rapidly changing, and these Americans are taking hold of their God-given right to keep and bear arms and protect themselves and their loved ones,” Mr. Keane said.With social upheaval, political overreach and power grabs, and any number of other issues 2020 has thrown at the public, Americans appear to at least somewhat be willing to fight for their right to live freely.The foundation’s current surveys revealed that 58% of all firearm purchases were among Black men and women, the largest increase of any demographic group. Women comprised 40% of first-time gun purchasers. Retailers also noted that they are seeing a 95% increase in firearm sales and a 139% increase in ammunition sales over the same period in 2019. –the The Washington PostThe general consensus seems to be that with four months left in 2020, we have yet to see the true scope and depravity of the elites who claim to own everyone and everything. But, lead is one of my personal favorites when it comes to storing metals.
US Cargo Thefts Erupt As Violent Crime Spreads Across America - The latest trucking news from Overdrive is particularly disturbing, outlines how cargo theft across the US surged during the virus-induced downturn in the second quarter. Overdrive, citing data from SensiGuard, a cargo theft recording firm aggregating data from transportation security councils, insurance companies and law enforcement organizations, said cargo theft surged 56% year-over-year in the quarter. "One significant note is that April, which was at the height of the supply chain disruption caused by COVID-19, experienced more than double the volume of April 2019 (+109%). While both May (+31%) and June (+30%) also beat their 2019 totals, it was by a decreasing amount in each case," SensiGuard noted in its 2Q20 cargo theft report. The cargo theft monitoring firm recorded 227 thefts over the three months ending June, with 96 in April, 67 in May, and 64 in June. In dollar amount, the average theft was about a quarter-million dollars. It said 23% of all cargo thefts were miscellaneous products for retailers. Food and drinks made up about 20% of all thefts. California, for the first time since 3Q17, was dethroned as the state with most cargo thefts. Texas became the epicenter of thefts in 2Q20, followed by California, Illinois, Florida, and Tennessee. In a separate report, we noted truckers on a popular trucking app called "CDLLife" polled its user base. They found an overwhelming number of drivers wouldn't "pickup/deliver to cities with defunded/disbanded police departments."A rapid increase in cargo thefts, robberies, and violent crime across US metros is not surprising whatsoever as a virus-induced recession has unleashed depressionary unemployment levels for the bottom 90% of Americans. Tens of millions of folks are still unemployed, and now, have not received Trump stimulus checks in three weeks as they go broke and hungry, also at risk of eviction. The recession has transformed America into a dangerous country as any hope for a "V-shaped" economic rebound this year has been dashed.
Foreign Direct Investment and Supply Chains in a Risky World - The pandemic has shown that global supply chains are vulnerable to shocks. Output contracted as factories were closed in China and the impact was transmitted to firms further along the chains and the distributors of the final goods. Foreign direct investment had already slowed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and there were questions about its future (see here). How will multinational firms respond to the new shock? The McKinsey Global Institute seeks to answer this question in a new report, Risk, Resilience and Rebalancing In Global Value Chains. The authors point out that the pandemic is only one of a range of shocks that can disrupt production. They distinguish between catastrophes that are foreseeable (such as financial crises) and those unanticipated (acts of terrorism), as well as disruptions that take place on a smaller scale. The latter can also be divided between those that are foreseeable (climate change) and those that are unanticipated (cyberattacks).The report then measures the exposure of different business sectors to the various shocks. Those that are heavily traded are more vulnerable. These include communication equipment, computers and electronics, and semiconductors and components, all industries that are seen as promoting growth. Apparel is another sector that is vulnerable to risks, such as the pandemic and climate change. These risks will motivate firms to reconfigure their supply chains. The political fissure between China and the U.S., as well as government policies to ensure self-sufficiency in some sectors, will also induce firms to reorganize production. The report’s authors estimated that 16% to 26% of current exports could be shifted. They find that “ . . . the value chains with the largest potential to move production to new geographies are petroleum, apparel, and pharmaceuticals.” In some cases governments may need to provide financial support to induce firms to relocate to domestic economies where the governments seek domestic self-sufficiency. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its World Investment Report 2020 also considers the future of FDI (see here for a summary). It identifies three trends that will shape the future of international production. These include technology trends that contribute to a “New Industrial Revolution;” growing nationalism that leads to more protectionism; and the need to achieve sustainability. As these forces evolve, they will push firms to increase supply chain resilience and increase national and regional productive ability.
What Travel Will Look Like After Coronavirus - When will we be traveling again in large numbers? And what will travel be like in the future? The first question depends on a medical solution to the coronavirus pandemic. The second is best answered with experience. I asked eight travel pioneers for predictions on what the future of travel will be—current and former chairmen and chief executives of travel companies and a former secretary of transportation. All have experience from past crises and recoveries. Most foresee a lasting decline in business travel, but think leisure travel will bounce back robustly. That means airlines and hotels will have to change their business plans, being unable to rely as much on rich revenue from corporate travelers. Expect higher ticket prices and room rates for vacationers to cover the costs with fewer high-dollar customers to subsidize bargain-seekers. “The airline industry is going to have to examine its business plan,” says Robert Crandall, former chief executive of American Airlines. “You are never going to see the volume of business travel that you’ve seen in the past.” He estimates one-third to one-half of business travel will go away. More meetings will take place electronically. Trips once thought necessary will be seen as superfluous. “Everybody who depends on business travel is going to have to rethink their game plan,” Mr. Crandall says. The pandemic has forced widespread, rapid adoption of videoconferencing technology. The technology is mature, easy to use and available on any device. “Will it be as necessary to send road warriors out? I have serious doubts about that,” says David Tait, a founding architect of Richard Branson’s Virgin Atlantic Airways. “The business market is seriously endangered.” Jeff Potter, a former CEO of Frontier Airlines who also ran a private-aviation subscription service shuttling people in markets such as Los Angeles-San Francisco, says those frequently traveled hops will probably take the hardest hits. Even a tiny uptick at the beginning of the summer faded once Covid-19 cases started to surge in some states. The industry is mired in what has now become a depression. On Tuesday, the International Air Transport Association updated its projection of when travel will return to pre-Covid-19 levels: 2024, a year later than the airline group’s previous forecast.
Even With a Strong Crop This Year, U.S. Farmers Are Suffering – WSJ - Following a growing season last year filled with battering rainfall and bitter trade wars, U.S. farmers hoped 2020 would provide them an opportunity to make up some ground. Instead, the situation has grown worse for many as prices remain depressed.Despite a wind storm tearing through Midwestern farms last week and drought conditions in isolated areas, a bumper crop of both corn and soybeans is still expected this year. “Overall, the trade seems to be coming to the conclusion that...there is still going to be an oversupply of corn in the U.S. and the world,” That case was bolstered Friday when Pro Farmer, following a weeklong tour of farmland across seven states, assessed the national corn yield at 177.5 bushels per acre, and the national soybean yield at 52.5. That is slightly lower than earlier U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates but higher than 2019’s waterlogged crop. For many U.S. farmers, the prospect of grain prices staying low is untenable. “It’s almost a day-to-day struggle to decide what to do next year,” said Doug Sombke, president of the South Dakota Farmers Union and a farmer of 3,000 acres of corn and soybeans in Brown County, S.D.Mr. Sombke says his local grain elevator is paying $2.87 for a bushel of corn. That is nearly a dollar lower than what he would need to collect to break even. The same is true for his soybeans, for which the elevator is willing to pay roughly $8.50 a bushel.Prices for corn and soybeans haven’t risen since the start of the year, when the signing of the U.S.-China phase-one trade agreement stipulating China would purchase $36.5 billion of agricultural goods from the U.S. gave farmers hope that export demand from China would buoy prices. Instead, most-active corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are down 16% since the start of the year, while wheat has fallen nearly 6% and soybeans have shed nearly 5%.Chinese imports of U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat are 144% higher than they were at this point last year, according to data from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. But the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. in March hobbled domestic demand for grains as restaurants and other institutions nationwide shut down. If the situation doesn’t quickly improve, Mr. Sombke said he may be forced out of farming. “We’ve got some choices to make,” he said. “The last three years, we’ve lost equity on our farm. Do we want to keep doing that?” Bankruptcies are high in farm country. Roughly 580 farmers filed for chapter 12 bankruptcy protection through the year ended June 30, according to federal data. More recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City shows farm loan repayments are expected to fall precipitously in the next three months. Most bankruptcies being reported are by small family farms, while larger agricultural operations are taking the opportunity to purchase land from distressed farmers, Mr. Philpot said.
Soy Boom?- China Could Buy Record Amount of US Soybeans - The prospects of strong Chinese demand has pushed Chicago soybean futures prices to a seven-month high this week. In a throwback to 2019 optimism on the US-China trade deal, the Trump administration has shifted from vaccine pump headlines to trade. Bloomberg cites several sources who say after top U.S. and Chinese trade officials reaffirmed phase one trade deal commitments earlier in the week, that China is planning to purchase a record amount of soybeans. The sources estimate total purchases could be around 40 million tons this year, an amount that would be 25% more than the levels seen in 2017. "China has been stepping up purchases of American agricultural goods since the end of April, with soybean sales for delivery next season currently running at their highest level for this time of year since 2013," Bloomberg notes.China has been lagging behind purchase commitments laid out in phase one trade agreement. We outlined this in a piece titled ""Trade Deal" Farce Summarized In These Charts."Bloomberg estimates that China's purchase commitments of farm goods for the first seven months of the year were at just 27% of the target value implied by the deal.The USDA reported Tuesday that Chinese importers bought 408,000 tons of U.S. corn and 204,000 tons of U.S. soybeans. Then on Wednesday, China's agriculture ministry said soybean imports were expected to rise into the late year.
Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 11.2% in July, Beats Forecast - The Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders released today gives us a first look at the latest durable goods numbers. Here is the Bureau's summary on new orders: New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $14.0 billion or 7.3 percent to $206.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 15.1 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 3.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 9.2 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $9.2 billion or 20.0 percent to $55.3 billion.Download full PDFThe latest new orders number at 11.2% month-over-month (MoM) was much better than the Investing.com 4.3% estimate. The series is down 5.0% year-over-year (YoY).If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 2.4% MoM, which was better than the Investing.com consensus of 2.0%. The core measure is down 1.0% YoY.If we exclude both transportation and defense for an even more fundamental "core", the latest number is down 0.2% MoM and down 2.7% YoY.Core Capital Goods New Orders (nondefense capital goods used in the production of goods or services, excluding aircraft) is an important gauge of business spending, often referred to as Core Capex. It is up 1.9% MoM and down 0.2% YoY. For a look at the big picture and an understanding of the relative size of the major components, here is an area chart of Durable Goods New Orders minus Transportation and Defense with those two components stacked on top. We've also included a dotted line to show the relative size of Core Capex.
Durable-Goods Orders Rose 11.2% in July for Third Monthly Gain – WSJ - Orders for long-lasting factory goods rose for a third straight month in July as manufacturers boosted output and the economy continued its climb back from disruptions related to the coronavirus pandemic. New orders for durable goods—products designed to last at least three years—increased 11.2% in July from the previous month, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Orders for military aircraft and motor vehicles led the gains, pushing new orders for transportation equipment up 35.6% from a month earlier. Excluding the often volatile transportation category, orders rose a more moderate 2.4%. A closely watched gauge of business investment—new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—increased 1.9% from the prior month and was barely shy of February levels. “The recovery in business equipment investment looks pretty V-shaped to us,” said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. U.S. factories were hit by health concerns, supply chain disruptions and shutdowns early in the coronavirus crisis. But efforts to reopen the economy have helped manufacturers regain much of the ground lost in March and April. That has been reflected in a variety of measures. As of July, manufacturing employment was down less than 6% from its 2020 peak in February. Employment in service-providing industries, in comparison, was down almost 9%. And momentum appears to be continuing. Data firm IHS Markit’s survey of purchasing managers at U.S. factories showed August activity expanding at the fastest pace since the start of 2019. Output growth has been especially strong in the auto sector as factories ramp up output and sales begin to recover from the worst stretch of the pandemic. New orders for motor vehicles and parts increased 21.9% last month, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. While investment has made up significant ground, some economists are cautious about the outlook. “It is our hunch that…the trend of growth will be slower than it would have been otherwise,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez. “To be honest, though, it is still anyone’s guess, and is largely going to depend on the path of the virus, the ability to distribute a safe and effective vaccine, and fiscal policy developments.”
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Strengthened in July - Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose to 18 in July from 10 in June. The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here. Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series. Here is the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview.Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District continued to strengthen in August, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from 10 in July to 18 in August, as all three components—shipments, new orders, and employment—increased. The index for local business conditions also rose and many firms reported increased capital expenditures. Manufacturers were optimistic that conditions would continue to improve.Survey results suggested many Fifth District manufacturers saw increases in employment, wages, and the average workweek in August. However, firms struggled to find workers with the necessary skills, as this index fell from 3 in July to −21 in August, its largest onemonth drop on record. Survey respondents expected employment and wages to rise and continued difficulty finding skills in the coming months.The average growth rates of both prices paid and prices received by survey participants increased in August. Growth of prices paid continued to outpace that of prices received, and respondents expect the gap to widen in the next six months. Link to Report Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.
Kansas City Fed Survey: Manufacturing Activity Rose in August - The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey business conditions indicator measures activity in the following states: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, western Missouri, and northern New Mexico.Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:– The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the August Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity rose moderately from July but remained below year-ago levels, while expectations for future activity expanded further.“Regional factory activity increased more in August than in June and July, but it was still below year-ago levels,” said Wilkerson. “Most firms said government programs had positively affected their business over the past 3 months, but a majority of firms also reported challenges rehiring furloughed or laid-off employees due to the extra CARES Act unemployment benefits.” [Full report here] Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
American Airlines announces 19,000 to be laid off starting October 1 - American Airlines executives announced Tuesday that without additional government funding through the Payroll Support Program (PSR), included in the CARES Act passed earlier this year, it will proceed with furloughing 19,000 workers on October 1. Thousands may still be laid off regardless of whether Congress hands over more public money to the airline. As part of the bipartisan CARES Act passed at the end of March this year, the major US airlines were bailed out to the tune of $25 billion, with American Airlines receiving a hefty $5.8 billion gratis from the US taxpayer. As part of the terms of the bailout, the airlines were required to use the money to retain workforces through September 30. With the additional layoffs, American will have 40,000 fewer workers than it did before the pandemic. More than 12,500 workers have already been forced to leave through “voluntary” retirements, buyouts and other schemes. In addition to American, Delta Air Lines announced on Monday that it will furlough over 1,940 pilots unless the Air Line Pilots Association agrees to a minimum 15 percent pay cut. The mass layoffs in the US airline industry are part of a global restructuring of the airline industry that is destroying the jobs of thousands of airline workers in the UK, Germany, Australia and other countries. It occurs at a time when more than 30 million workers are officially unemployed, and jobless workers have been without their $600-a-week federal unemployment benefit and many face evictions for nonpayment of rent. All of the major airlines spent billions of dollars in the decade leading up to the pandemic on share buybacks and dividend distributions to stockholders. In a Bloomberg report earlier this year, it was revealed that American, United, Southwest, Delta and Alaska had spent 96% of their free cash flow, (money remaining after capital expenditures) between 2010-2019, buying back their own shares.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,006,000 -The DOL reported: - In the week ending August 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,006,000, a decrease of 98,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,106,000 to 1,104,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,068,000, a decrease of 107,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 1,175,750 to 1,175,250.The previous week was revised down. This does not include the 607,806 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 524,986 the previous week.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
UI claims remain historically high and the president’s executive memorandum is doing more harm than good: Congress must reinstate the extra $600 – EPI - Last week 1.4 million workers applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Breaking that down: 822,000 applied for regular state unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted), and 608,000 applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). Some headlines this morning are saying there were 1.0 million UI claims last week, but that’s not the right number to use. For one thing, it ignores PUA, the federal program that is serving millions of workers who are not eligible for regular UI, like the self-employed. It also uses seasonally adjusted data, which is distorted right now because of the way Department of Labor (DOL) does seasonal adjustments. One bit of good news is that with today’s release, DOL announced that starting next week, they will be changing the way they do seasonal adjustments. The change should address the issues that have plagued seasonally adjustments during this pandemic.Republicans in the Senate allowed the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly UI benefits to expire. Last week was the fourth week of unemployment in this pandemic for which recipients did not get the extra $600. That means people on UI are now are forced to get by on the meager benefits that are in place without the extra payment, benefits which are typically around 40% of their pre-virus earnings. It goes without saying that most folks can’t exist on 40% of prior earnings without experiencing a sharp drop in living standards and enormous pain.Earlier this month, President Trump issued a joke of an executive memorandum. It was supposed to give recipients an additional $300 or $400 in benefits per week. But in reality, even this drastically reduced benefit will be extremely delayed, is only available for a few weeks, and is not available at all for many. The executive memorandum is a false promise that actually does more harm than good because it diverts attention from the desperate need for the real relief that can only come through legislation. This is cruel, and terrible economics. The extra $600 was supporting a huge amount of spending by people who now have to make drastic cuts. The spending made possible by the $600 was supporting 5.1 million jobs. Cutting that $600 means cutting those jobs—it means the workers who were providing the goods and services that UI recipients were spending that $600 on lose their jobs. The map in Figure B of this blog postshows many jobs will be lost by state now that the $600 unemployment benefit has been allowed to expire.We remain 12.9 million jobs below where we were before the virus hit, and the unemployment rate is higher than it ever was during the Great Recession. Now isn’t the time to cut benefits that support jobs.
Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims McBride - Earlier: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,006,000. This was the 23rd consecutive week with extraordinarily high initial claims. More importantly, continued claims are still extremely high (second graph). The following graph shows regular initial unemployment claims (blue) and PUA claims (red) since early February. Initial claims, including Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) are still above 1.6 million per week. The worst week during the great recession was 665,000. So initial claims are still about 1 million per week higher than the worst week of the great recession! We are probably seeing some layoffs related to the higher level of COVID cases and also from the end of some Payroll Protection Programs (PPP). The second graph shows all person receiving unemployment insurance benefits on all programs. Note that this data is released with a lag, and is not seasonally adjusted. There are typically around 2 million people receiving benefits from the various programs (mostly regular unemployment insurance). As of the release this morning, there were still 27 million people receiving benefits as of August 8th.
More US jobs lost to coronavirus pandemic are disappearing permanently ... A growing number of jobs lost due to the coronavirus pandemic are disappearing forever. A new analysis of payroll data published by Gusto found that less than half of furloughed employees have returned to work since March, and often for less money than they were earning pre-crisis. The findings show that only 37% of workers furloughed in March, and 47% of those laid off in April, returned to their jobs as of July. A quarter of the workers furloughed in March who were re-hired and went back to their jobs had their wages slashed by 10% or more. Just 14% of workers who returned to work are earning the same amount of money that they were previously making. Of the millions of workers furloughed between March, when the COVID-19 outbreak triggered an unprecedented shutdown of the nation's economy, and June, 22% have been permanently laid-off. The Labor Department's July jobs report released at the beginning of August showed that employers added 1.8 million jobs last month, sending the unemployment rate down to 10.2%. While it marked the third consecutive month of job growth in the millions, the economy has so far added back less than half -- about 42% -- of the 22 million jobs it lost during the pandemic. Permanent losses reached 2.9 million in July, the report showed.
NBA postpones playoff games after Bucks protest Jacob Blake shooting - The National Basketball Association has postponed all three playoff games on Wednesday's schedule after the Milwaukee Bucks refused to take the floor in protest of the Jacob Blake shooting. The Bucks were to play the Orlando Magic in Game 5 of their playoff series, but they decided as a team not to play the game -- even though the Magic had already taken the court for pregame warmups. The Magic left the court shortly before the 4 p.m. ET tip-off. The NBA later announced that in conjunction with the Players Association, the decision was made to postpone the games until a later date. The other games affected were the Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers. "Some things are bigger than basketball," Bucks Senior Vice President Alex Lasry tweeted. "The stand taken today by the players and org shows that we’re fed up. Enough is enough. Change needs to happen. I’m incredibly proud of our guys and we stand 100% behind our players ready to assist and bring about real change." Blake, a Black man, was shot multiple times in the back on Sunday by police in Kenosha, Wisconsin, which is 40 miles south of Milwaukee.
August Employment Report Will Show an Increase of 237,800 Temporary Census Workers --The Census Bureau released an update today on 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers As of the July BLS employment report reference week, there were 50,404 decennial Census temporary workers. As of August reference week there were 288,204 temp workers. This means the August employment report will show an increase of 237,800 in temporary Census hiring under Federal employment. This is the 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers report released today. The temporary employment for the July and August reference weeks are circled in red.Since these are temporary, and only happen every ten years with the decennial Census, it makes sense to adjust the headline monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) by Census hiring to determine the underlying employment trend. The correct adjustment method is to take the headline number and subtract the change in the number of Census 2020 temporary and intermittent workers. For more, see: How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring.
'You Could Lose Everything In The Blink Of An Eye': Utility Shutoffs Resume For Overdue Bills -Stacy Mason boiled water on her stove for bathing and washing the dishes after losing her gas service because of unpaid bills.During the COVID-19 pandemic, many states put moratoriums on evictions and utility shutoffs that are set to expire next week. But even before those protections phase-out, utility companies are cutting off gas and electric service for people like Mason.Mason says her bills started piling up after she was laid off in March from her job at an auto plant in Ohio because of COVID-19.Despite Ohio’s moratorium on utility shutoffs, Mason’s gas company offered to extend her service for one week. She explained that she was laid off and couldn’t make the payment, but she couldn’t work out a deal.“They knew what my situation was and they still came and they shut it off,” she says. “They didn't knock on the door to let me know beforehand or anything. They just left a paper in my door and shut my gas services off.” Uncertain of what to do, Mason says she spent much of the first day after the shutoff crying. She reached out to theOhio Heartland Community Action Commission for help paying the bill. As her bills continue piling up, Mason hopes the nonprofit can help her pay her $800 rent on Sept. 1. If not, she will likely face eviction.
New York City Faces Toughest Fiscal Crisis Since the 1970s – WSJ -New York City faces a $9 billion deficit over the next two years, high levels of unemployment and the prospect of laying off 22,000 government workers if new revenue or savings aren’t found in the coming weeks.The growing economic crisis, brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, has alarmed New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo so much that he recently asserted greater control over a panel overseeing the finances of the nation’s largest city. Earlier this summer, Mr. Cuomo appointed three close allies to the New York State Financial Control Board. The board played a prominent role during the city’s last fiscal crisis in the 1970s, when it wielded broad legal power over the city’s budget and made difficult spending decisions.Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat, has grown concerned about the direction of the city budget, state Budget Director Robert Mujica said in an interview.The city had to cut billions to balance its latest budget, but it still has major funding challenges.Local officials have called on Congress to approve a relief package for the city, but talks about a bill are ongoing. As a backstop, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio asked state lawmakers for authorization to borrow up to $5 billion to fund operating costs. Democrats who control the state Senate objected, and the request hasn’t been granted. “A lot of the same things that occurred in 1975 are reoccurring,” Mr. Mujica said. “And if that’s the case, and the city’s going to be in a level of fiscal distress, we want to know early.” The seven-member control board is chaired by the governor and consists of the mayor, the city and state comptrollers, and three “private members” appointed by the governor. One seat was vacant, and the remaining private members were appointed by former Govs. Eliot Spitzer and George Pataki. Mr. Cuomo’s appointments replace the private members and fill an empty seat. These members don’t have fixed terms and serve at the pleasure of the governor. The mayor’s relationship with Mr. Cuomo is contentious, as both leaders jockeyed over decisions at the start of the pandemic. But a spokesman for Mr. de Blasio, Bill Neidhardt, said the city was “not concerned” with the new appointments. The panel was created in 1975 after years of borrowing to cover operating deficits brought New York City to the brink of bankruptcy. The board had the power to approve, reject or change the city’s budget as well as labor contracts.
New York City Faces Another “Drop Dead”: How Many Other Cities Will Wind Up in Distress? - Yves Smith - Many readers will recall that the vogue for city living is a fairly recent phenomenon. Large cities fell into disfavor in the 1970 as they came to be seen as hotbeds of crime and “white flight” became widespread. The exodus further eroded strained tax bases. We’ll focus on New York City as the canary in the coal mine for what is coming for other cities if Covid-19 isn’t tamed by say mid 2021, particularly since commentators are already worrying about fiscal-crisis-level damage to the Big Apple. For instance, Wolf Richter has a piece documenting how San Francisco’s financial district has become a ghost town which we’ll discuss briefly. Heavily tourism-dependent towns are also due to take worse hits than similar-sized brethren. The Wall Street Journal has a new story tonight on how employers are facing worker revolts about bringing them back to offices, which does not bode well for the recovery of urban centers. Key sections:This summer, executives at health-care-technology firm Epic Systems announced a plan: Most of the 9,500 employees at its 1,000-acre campus in Wisconsin would be expected back in the office in September.The company, like many others, says its employees do their best work when they can collaborate in the same space. But blowback to the mandate was swift. Employees expressed fears about safety and spreading the new coronavirus. Local health officials questioned the move. So Epic joined legions of other companies making late-in-the-game changes to office-reopening plans, saying this month that staffers could work from home at least through the new year….Expecting the virus to be under control by Labor Day, many employers had hoped to bring white-collar workers back to the office next month. But as cases rose in dozens of states throughout the summer, major school districts settled on remote or hybrid instruction, complicating the picture for working parents. Some employers have already scuttled plans to force office workers back so soon.They include some of the country’s biggest companies. In an August survey of 15 major employers that collectively employ about 2.6 million people, 57% said they had decided to postpone their back-to-work plans because of recent increases in Covid-19 cases. New York City’s population of the city rose not just due to growth of jobs but also the increased tendency of mid and upper income workers to bring up their children in the city. And the long-term plan for New York City, of it becoming a bedroom community for the wealthy and professionals, was coming to fruition (if you were a fan of sort of thing) via formerly commercial neighborhoods like Soho and Tribeca becoming playgrounds for the affluent, and Harlem and areas colonized by artists gentrifying.Another chapter in this “progression” was New York, along with other “world cities” becoming a place where the super-wealthy would buy apartments as investments. They were often kept vacant or little used. New York hadn’t gone as far as, say, Fulham Road near Sloane Square, in terms of looking like it had been hit by a neutron bomb. But some buildings like the former Plaza Hotel, converted into condos, even had articles written about how creepily empty they were.Now this has all gone splat. High end real estate prices are cracking as the city’s budget becomes a black hole, assuring coming deep and painful cuts in services. The press was already reporting that rats were becoming bolder due to restaurants no longer producing anywhere near their former level of throw-away food, in combination with the city sanitation services having already cut back on their schedules.
'Footloose' Comes To Life In New York- Governor Cuomo Bans Dancing - 'Footloose' Comes To Life In New York: Governor Cuomo Bans Dancing - Governor Cuomo has become Reverend Shaw Moore from the movie Footloose after issuing a new set of commands for New Yorkers that includes a ban on dancing. This is not a joke. Syracuse.com reported the story.There is no dancing allowed in New York’s bars and restaurants, even at a wedding reception, according to the New York State Liquor Authority.To control the spread of the coronavirus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s liquor authority has also specifically banned darts, pool, cornhole, karaoke and exotic dancing.Bar owners are already struggling to stay open after being shut down for months. The new rules are causing a lot of anxiety as business owners are being threatened with their licensing if they don’t comply.The intent is to reduce the number of people congregating in bars. If you go to a bar, you must sit at a table or move along, according to the liquor authority’s guidelines.“I don’t let people dance,” said Dan Palladino, who owns Heritage Hill Brewhouse in Pompey. “I think it’s kind of sad, but I don’t want to risk my license.”I’ve already been to an illegal wedding where there was a lot of dancing— and they’re becoming more popular. People having weddings in New York have to hide the location until the last minute and keep all signs of partying out of sight. It’s kind of exciting in a speakeasy sort of way but also extremely stupid. You cannot keep people from living their lives. And if you try to outlaw fun, they’re just going to break those laws and do it anyway.
Cuomo’s coronavirus rules: No dancing, no cornhole, no karaoke, no kidding - There is no dancing allowed in New York’s bars and restaurants, even at a wedding reception, according to the New York State Liquor Authority. To control the spread of the coronavirus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s liquor authority has also specifically banned darts, pool, cornhole, karaoke and exotic dancing. Somehow, a place that allows customers to throw axes and drink beer is reopening Friday. There was no word from the liquor authority on how that fits in to safety protocols. No kidding. Cuomo has also banned comedy shows. The intent is to reduce the number of people congregating in bars. If you go to a bar, you must sit at a table or move along, according to the liquor authority’s guidelines. “I don’t let people dance,” said Dan Palladino, who owns Heritage Hill Brewhouse in Pompey. “I think it’s kind of sad, but I don’t want to risk my license.” Even live music is in question after the liquor authority surprised bars and restaurants with new language this week on its Frequently Asked Questions page. The state now says music should be incidental and not a concert with paid ticketholders. Heritage Hill hires bands to play to customers seated outdoors on the weekends and charges a $5 cover. Palladino said it helps him pay the band and to control the crowd. Having people pay to watch a band actually limits the number of customers who turn over tables, he said. “I have to say: Who’s asking the why?” Palladino said. “Where are these regulations coming from? We know that our cases are declining, yet we continue to come out with more and more regulations, putting a tourniquet on businesses.” Palladino took away the cornhole games early on to avoid the appearance of congregating. But he disagrees with the rule when people are outside and playing with people they know.
De Blasio's 'Utopia'- Quarter-Mile Food-Bank Line Spotted In Queens - Three weeks into a fiscal cliff, a large food bank line emerged on Saturday (Aug. 22) in Queens, a New York City borough, stretching for nearly a quarter-mile down the street. With each passing day, the failure of Congress and the Trump administration to agree on the next round of stimulus exerts more and more pressure on consumers, who now derive a quarter of all personal income from the government. The La Jornada food pantry, located on 133-36 Roosevelt Ave, Queens, usually hands out food packages to 1,000 families per week. Now, according to the New York Post, the number, in recent weeks, has skyrocketed to 10,000. "It reminds me of the picture from the Great Depression where a man in a suit and tie is giving another man in a suit and tie an apple. That's all he had," La Jornada's Pedro Rodriguez told The Post, adding that food supplies are running low. Rodriguez, a volunteer of the food pantry who is executive director, said, "We feel like we are underwater, drowning in a tsunami of people." He said the surge in hungry families coming to the food bank is "unbelievable." The Post interviewed Walter Barrera, who arrived at the food bank at 6:00 ET Saturday to pick up groceries for his family. Barrera, 50, has waited in line every Saturday for food as he lost his construction job during the pandemic. He said there are no jobs available; nevertheless, his teenage sons, 19 and 17, also cannot find jobs. Barrera said his family is broke, close friends and relatives are helping them pay their $2,300 per month rent in the city: "What do I tell my children when they look at me with hungry bellies, especially my 11-year-old son?"
‘Coming here is a necessity’: demand for food aid soars in US amid job losses --It’s hectic but the free packed lunches have become a crucial part of their daily nutrition. So everyday at noon the family make the two-mile journey from Homewood, a low income predominantly African American Pittsburgh neighborhood with no grocery stores, to the East End Community Ministry’s pop-up lunch stall in East Liberty.“The lunches help a lot, the food is healthy and it fills them up, the food stamps are never enough,” Once a week or so Davis also picks up groceries from the food pantry, which provides fresh produce rarely available at her local convenience stores. “I was raised to be humble, and right now I’ve no work so I need help. The alternative would be my kids going hungry.” Davis is not alone. The number of people relying on the pantry is up 150% compared to pre-pandemic times. And it’s not just here: nationwide the demand for aid at food banks and pantries has soared amid unprecedented job losses and the worst unemployment rate in modern times.A recent census bureau survey found 12% of American households did not have enough food sometimes or often during the previous week – compared to 9% before the pandemic. For families the situation is even worse, with 15% of households with children now experiencing food insecurity.Hunger always impacts children hardest. An estimated one in four children, the equivalent of 18 million minors, could need food aid this year – a 63% increase compared to 2018, according toanalysis by Feeding America, the national food bank network.This pandemic has also exposed – and exacerbated – structural inequalities including access to affordable, nutritious food. Overall, almost half of Pittsburgh lives in a food desert – a neighbourhood with high rates of poverty and no supermarket within half a mile – but black residents are disproportionately affected.
Duke Energy to resume disconnecting customers behind on payments - Duke Energy next week will resume disconnecting customers for nonpayment as advocacy groups are intensifying demands for a statewide moratorium on disconnections and debt forgiveness for low-income customers during the pandemic. As Central Florida’s largest power provider, Duke was part of a widespread move among utilities in March that suspended cutting off electricity to customers unable to pay their bills as COVID-19 strangled the region’s economy and employment. Many utilities, including those owned municipally in Orlando, Winter Park and Kissimmee, returned to disconnects earlier this summer, while Duke and Florida Power & Light Co. continued to suspend disconnects. “As financial assistance has become available for qualified customers, we believe now is the right time to begin resuming more traditional operations,” Catherine Stempien, Duke Energy’s Florida president, said in a statement. “We will, however, continue to help our customers access resources to assist them and provide additional information that can help reduce their bills.” Duke has 380,000 customers in Orange, 158,000 in Seminole, 86,000 in Lake, 82,000 in Volusia, 50,000 in Osceola and a few hundred in Brevard. Several environmental and social-justice groups and state legislators are calling on Gov. Ron DeSantis and the utility-regulating Florida Public Service Commission to reform utility practices during the pandemic. The “Connected in Crisis” coalition is urging a ban on disconnections through January, debt forgiveness for low-income customers and adoption of best-practices guidelines for utility customers’ debt management.
34.5 million households losing utility shutoff protections by Sept. 30 --Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, millions of Americans have relied on emergency orders put in place by state and local governmentsthat bar utility companies from shutting off services such as gas, electricity and water. However, many of these orders will expire by the end of September, leaving 34.5 million households without shutoff protections, according to a new report from energy efficiency startup Carbon Switch.Governors and public utility commissions in 32 states passed new utility shutoff moratoriums during the pandemic, which prohibited providers from shutting off utilities because of nonpayment. Several states, such as Ohio and Arizona, did not pass new orders but extended seasonal shutoff restrictions during the pandemic. Yet overall, many of these measures were put in place as short-term solutions, so most of themoratoriums are set to expire soon. Ten states have already had their orders expire, but the bulk are lifting in August, September and October,Carbon Switch's report finds. Meanwhile, 14 states never issued specific moratoriums at all, instead relying on utility companies to voluntarily keep power on for customers with overdue bills. Yet 8 out of 10 of the nation's biggest utility companies are planning to return to normal operations by Sept. 15 and will start cutting off customers' electricity and gas if the bills are overdue, Carbon Switch reports. "There's going to be a tidal wave of utility shutoffs," says Michael Thomas, founder and head researcher of Carbon Switch. That's because in some states, as many as a third of households are behind on payments. Typically, only about 7% to 9% of Americans are delinquent on their payments, he says. "It's just crazy by any measure."Throughout August and September, 14 state moratoriums will expire. Carbon Switch calculates that by October 1, about 76 million households will be without shutoff protections. At that point, only a dozen states and Washington, D.C. will still have moratoriums still in place. Only seven states — California, Connecticut, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, New York and Wyoming — and Washington, D.C. do not have expiration dates set on their moratorium orders, according to Carbon Switch. About 9.5 million people are currently unemployed in states that are set to have their shutoff protections expire on or before October 1, according to the report's analysis of the latest monthly data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Another 10 million of the households in those states are currently below the federal poverty line, Carbon Switch finds.
Indecisive Pennsylvania panel retains a ban on utilities shutting off nonpaying customers --The PUC delayed a vote until Sept. 17 on whether to lift the order banning service terminations, put into place in March after the state declared a COVID-19 emergency. Twice previously, the commission deadlocked in votes to end the moratorium. Utilities said the moratorium on shutoffs and payment penalties has led to a dramatic increase in nonpaying customers, but consumer advocates said the action was vital to protecting consumers hit by the pandemic’s economic outfall. The commission gave no indication of points upon which it remains divided. Gladys Brown Dutrieuille, the PUC’s chair who had called for a vote this week, made a brief statement after Thursday’s announcement, thanking interested parties for submitting responses to the PUC.“I understand the gravity of the issue that this commission is faced with, and although I regret not being able to provide any type of motion or opportunity for a determination today, I do believe that we will eventually get to vote on this matter and it will be a well-informed and considered vote,” she said.
Unmasked Protesters Push Past State Police And Force Their Way Into Capitol -- In Boise, the first day of Idaho's special legislative session erupted into chaos before it began. Dozens of unmasked protesters, some of them armed, shoved their way past state troopers to pack the gallery overlooking the state's House of Representatives.The clash was a manifestation of the anger and frustration from a vocal minority of far-right Idahoans that has been compounding over the last several months as the state has navigated its reopening amid the pandemic.To enforce social distancing, the gallery area above the House chamber was restricted with limited seating. But after the confrontation with state troopers, which resulted in the shattering of a glass door, Republican House Speaker Scott Bedke relented and allowed protesters to fill every seat.The response stands in stark contrast to 2014 when dozens of advocates pressuring lawmakers to pass LGBTQ protections were arrested for standing silently in a hallway, blocking access to the Idaho Senate chamber.On Monday, an Idaho State Police spokeswoman, Lynn Hightower, said she wasn't aware of any pending charges against protesters. The following day she released a statement saying that "Idaho State Police personnel determined they could not have made arrests on the spot without elevating the potential for violence," and that an investigation was ongoing into any criminal behavior "that may have occurred."Right now, Idaho has one of the highest rates of COVID-19 cases per capita, especially in Ada County, which includes the capital, Boise, according to the White House. "I want to always try to avoid violence," Bedke later told The Associated Press. "My initial reaction, of course, was to clear the fourth floor. But we had room for at least some more."He said he was more disappointed than surprised at the violence."I think we're better than that. I think that Idahoans expect more out of their citizens."
Ammon Bundy Is Arrested — And Wheeled Out Of The Idaho Statehouse -- Ammon Bundy, who led an armed standoff against federal agents in Oregon in 2016, was arrested at the Idaho state capitol for trespassing and other charges following a protest Tuesday afternoon. Bundy has been part of disruptive protests since the state's Republican-controlled legislature convened for a special session Monday to address coronavirus-related bills. At times, far-right demonstrators, some armed and unmasked, pushed past state troopers to enter a legislative chamber. Tuesday afternoon, amid more reported chaos, police cleared a hearing room at the order of the state house speaker. Bundy, along with two other protesters, refused to leave. He was placed in handcuffs and taken out of the statehouse and onto a Boise street in the same rolling chair in which he was seated, according to Lynn Hightower of the Idaho State Police. Bundy was expected to be booked into the Ada County Jail on charges of trespassing and resisting and obstructing officers, both misdemeanors, she told NPR. Social media posts and local television stations showed bizarre footage of Bundy being detained while sitting in an office chair in his cowboy hat and blazer.PR's terms of use and privacy policy. NPR may share your name and email address with your NPR station. See Details. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Bundy and other members of the far right, so-called Patriot Movement, have been protesting various coronavirus related health measures — such as mask mandates — across the Northwest since the pandemic began in March. Extremist group monitors have said the virus has breathed new life into their cause, that had been dying down in some parts of the country. In Idaho, several elected leaders have enthusiastically supported Bundy and his followers.
Wisconsin city center burns amid protests over police shooting of Black man - (Reuters) - Arsonists set buildings ablaze and torched much of the Black business district in Kenosha, Wisconsin, during a second night of unrest sparked by the wounding of a Black man shot in the back by police as his three young sons looked on.Smoke billowed over central Kenosha after police in riot gear clashed with protesters as they defied a dusk-to-dawn curfew on Monday night and Tuesday morning, near where police gunned down Jacob Blake on Sunday. Blake, 29, remained in intensive care following surgery and would require more operations, civil rights attorney Ben Crump, who represents the Blake family, told ABC News on Tuesday. Blake’s father told the Chicago Sun-Times his son was paralyzed from the waist down. Blake, who had been attempting to break up a fight between two women, was struck by four of the seven shots, all fired by one officer, in front of his sons aged 3, 5 and 8, Crump said. “You can only imagine the psychological problems these babies are going to have for the rest of their life,” Crump said. Video captured by a neighbor shows Blake walking toward the driver’s side door of his SUV, away from two officers who were pointing guns at his back. After he opens the door, seven shots ring out with one of the officers tugging at his shirt. It remains unknown what the officers may have seen inside Blake’s car. Crump said there was “no indication he was armed.” The shooting is under investigation by the Wisconsin Department of Justice, which has not released any details. Kenosha police have referred all questions to the state investigators. The shooting occurred three months after the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis sparked nationwide protests against police brutality and racism.
Black Lives Matter Protester Shot While Marching Through Pennsylvania - A Black Lives Matter protester marching with a group of fellow activists through rural Pennsylvania was allegedly shot by a white man on Monday night, according to witnesses and a live-streamed video of the incident. The 27-minute video, posted to Facebook by activist Frank Nitty, shows the Wisconsin-based protesters — who are in the middle of a 750-mile march from Milwaukee to Washington, D.C. — standing on a road in Schellsburg, Pennsylvania, a little before midnight. Near the end of the video, two white men can be seen standing in front of a nearby building. One of them appears to be holding a gun. Multiple gunshots can then be heard in the video, as Nitty and other activists scramble and duck into the nearby cars that were accompanying them on their march. The video then shows one of the protesters, who says he’s been shot, bleeding from the face as he climbs into a car.“Early information indicates there was an incident between a group of activists traveling from Milwaukee to Washington, D.C. and two area residents,” the Pennsylvania State Police said in a statement Tuesday. “Gunfire was exchanged, and one activist was struck. The injured individual is being treated at Conemaugh Hospital for non-life-threatening injuries.” “The residents involved are being questioned by state police,” the statement continued. “Investigators believe there is no ongoing threat.” In another statement published later on Tuesday, police added that the incident began after the residents accused the activists of standing in a “private business parking lot.” The residents, described as the “property owners” in the new statement, then “confronted the activists,” police said, before the “confrontation escalated” and gunshots were exchanged between the two groups. One of the activists, Tory Lowe, disputed the police’s account, claiming there was no initial confrontation with the property owners. “The white man just came out shooting,”
Court rules against Florida governor but schools to remain open - On Monday, a Florida judge issued a temporary injunction against an order by the state mandating that schools provide full in-person instruction by the end of August or risk losing state funding. Within hours, the state filed an appeal, placing a stay on the preliminary injunction and effectively reinstating the criminal state order. The Florida Education Association (FEA), which filed the initial lawsuit, said it will file a motion to reinstate the judge’s ruling. Whether this is granted or not, the final outcome for educators, parents and students will only be slightly altered. While the unions and the media presented the judge’s ruling as a major victory for teachers, the reality is the school districts such as Duval County that have already opened will likely stay open. Meanwhile, educators in other districts will be herded back into unsafe classrooms, albeit under plans outlined by local district officials working with the unions, not under the timetables and rules set by Governor Ron DeSantis and his state education officials. Facebook groups opposed to the Republican governor’s reopening of schools have formed across Florida, attracting thousands of members and serving as a means to organize protests. Last Thursday, roughly 80 teachers in Duval County (Jacksonville) organized a wildcat “sickout” strike on the first day of in-person learning. More than 1,200 Jacksonville school bus drivers and aides are conducting a strike vote. In addition, hundreds of teachers across the district and thousands statewide have resigned out of fear of returning to unsafe conditions. Faced with this revolt, the FEA filed the lawsuit to try to corral the opposition and contain it behind appeals to the courts and local school officials to work with the unions to open the schools. The FEA and its parent unions, the National Education Association (NEA) and American Federation of Teachers (AFT), have adamantly opposed any mobilization of the union’s 150,000 members in any form of statewide protest or strike action. Instead, numerous districts have been allowed to reopen across the state, producing at least 626 confirmed COVID-19 infections among students and staff, the largest confirmed total of any state.
Florida educators launch rank-and-file committee to oppose unsafe school openings - After months of applying pressure to the Duval County Public School Board, Superintendent Dr. Diana Greene, and the Duval Teachers United union, our gravest concerns have gone unheard. Schools are open, and the virus is spreading. Teachers, fearful for their jobs and their lives, are trapped in unsafe classrooms without testing, social distancing, proper ventilation, or sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE). The promises made by Florida Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran and repeated by the Board and Dr. Greene have gone unfulfilled.These schools are not safe. Science has not guided this reopening; greed has. We refuse to lay down our lives for profit or participate in a poorly designed, underfunded, deadly experiment. Therefore, we issue these demands as the basis for a struggle for a safe return to school in Duval County:
- We call for the immediate closure of all public, private, and charter schools. Schools must remain closed until the rank-and-file safety committees, working in conjunction with trusted scientists and public health experts can ensure the safety of children, teachers, and school employees.
- Every student and teacher must be provided with up-to-date computer technology and Internet access for virtual instruction immediately. This technology must include working webcams and microphones.
- School ventilation systems must be renovated or replaced to comply with scientific recommendations for a safe environment.
- When schools reopen face-to-face, we demand mandatory rapid on-site testing once a week for all faculty, students, and staff. Registered nurses must be stationed at every school, authorized to oversee testing and robust contact tracing..
- Full transparency. We demand daily reporting to the community on results and COVID-positive cases. No one can return to a school building without a negative test.
- No loss of income for educators who choose to stay home. Teachers will not lose their position at their school if they decide to remain virtual.
- For freedom of speech and the protection of whistleblowers to include teachers, students, and staff.
- For the unity and safety of educators, parents, students, and workers in our community.
- Full income protection to all parents and caregivers who stay home with their children.
- These measures to be paid for by a surcharge on Florida’s billionaires. As of 2019, Florida was home to 52 billionaires, and 33 of these were listed on the Forbes 400.
New York City’s school reopening plan: anatomy of a crime - New York City’s self-proclaimed “progressive” mayor, Democrat Bill de Blasio, has proven just as willing to carry out the homicidal policy of school reopening amidst the coronavirus pandemic as his most reactionary Republican counterparts. The claims being made by de Blasio and New York City schools’ Chancellor Richard Carranza that the Department of Education (DOE) is carrying out all necessary measures to safely open the city’s more than 1,600 schools—serving more than a million students—are a patent fraud. This is being sold to parents through a combination of half-truths and outright lies. There is widespread opposition to the reopening of schools from teachers and school administrators. At the same time, a growing number of parents and students are raising concerns over both the safety and the viability of the city’s hybrid models, which bring students into school buildings between one and three days each week. During the first two weeks of August, school principals and leadership teams from non-District 75 (a non-geographical district designated for special education schools) middle and high schools were told they had to select from one of five DOE-approved models for hybrid learning, despite having been asked previously to develop reopening plans grounded in the reality and needs of each school community. School leaders were told that waivers allowing for alternative models developed by school communities would not be granted. An enormous amount of pressure has been put on principals to quickly select a pre-approved hybrid model even before the results from family surveys, in which parents can select between in-person, so-called hybrid instruction, or 100 percent remote instruction for their children. Similarly, model decisions were being made before final decisions on teacher requests for medical waivers for in-person teaching were forwarded to principals. In other words, principals and school teams were essentially excluded from any meaningful input into the reopening process while being forced to choose a hybrid model without considering the kind of basic data on student population or staffing needed to make any rational decision. Parents were also being asked to choose a hybrid model without clear communication of the basic details of said models or adequate time to consider how they would impact work or childcare.
Cancellation Of SAT And ACT Tests Changing 2021 College Application Process— The uncertainty continues for high school students as many navigate the college admissions process amid the coronavirus pandemic. “It’s a hard process already when you are trying to navigate in person and having a completely normal year. So when there is a bunch going on in the world and no one knows what’s happening, it’s way more stressful,” said Shady Side Academy senior Eve Mango. Since the beginning of the pandemic, SAT and ACT tests have been canceled or pushed back. “We heard crazy stories this summer of people traveling and driving 13 hours to get to some test center because nothing in their area was open, only to get there and have the test center closed,” said Shady Side Academy college counselor Lauren Lieberman. Those cancellations aren’t just causing panic in parents and seniors. The cancellations are also changing the 2021 college application process. “It has made many colleges go to a test-optional system so they aren’t requiring ACT or SAT scores this year. That’s about 60 percent of the schools out there,” Lieberman said. While the change provides some relief to students who couldn’t get a test scheduled, it also gives seniors one less way to stand out on the application. The change in testing is just one impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the college admissions process. Both high schools senior Annabel Everett and Mango told KDKA that it’s difficult to decide on a college when you can only visit virtually and the application deadlines continue to change. “Some colleges are canceling early decision and adding a second early decision date in January. It’s really weird and I think colleges are testing all these new things and we are just trying to figure it out together,” Mango said. As for the testing optional changes, some universities said it’s a plan for the next one to three years while others made the move permanent.
Michigan College Will Digitally Track Students’ Movements At All Times - A Michigan college is requiring students to download a phone application that tracks their location and private health data at all times in an attempt to protect them from the coronavirus. Albion College, located in Albion, Mich., is one of the first schools in the country to tackle contact tracing. The school is working to create a "COVID-bubble" on campus, and asking students stay within the school's 4.5-mile perimeter for the entire semester; if a student leaves campus, the app will notify the administration, and the student could be temporarily suspended. The move comes as universities grapple with how to reopen safely amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Several schools including Harvard University have shut down their campuses entirely, while the University of California system will provide the majority of classes online with a selection of hybrid options. Other schools, such as Boston University, are resuming in-person learning with masks and social distancing guidelines alongside virtual learning supplements for those who don't feel comfortable returning. Albion’s reopening plan has sparked blowback from students and parents who are expressing concern about what they view as an invasion of privacy. A father of an Albion student said that he is upset that he must choose between keeping his daughter home from school or signing off on a university-sanctioned "invasion of privacy." "The school wants my daughter to sign a form consenting to specimen collection and lab testing," he told the Washington Free Beacon on condition of anonymity. "I have a ton of concern with that…. Why is the state of Michigan's contact tracing not enough?"
Michigan College Unleashes “Mandatory” App To Track Students At All Times - Colleges that are reopening campuses this fall understand outbreaks of COVID-19 are certainly possible on school grounds and in the surrounding communities. To safeguard students against the virus, Albion College, located in Albion, Michigan, is requesting all students to download a smartphone app that tracks their location to create a "COVID-bubble." According to The Washington Free Beacon, Albion College's COVID-bubble will require students to stay within a 4.5-mile perimeter of the school. If students violate bubble rules, such as stepping outside the bubble, the app will automatically notify school officials who could slap the violater with a "temporary suspension." The move to track students comes as college, health experts, and government officials have been in several months of disputes about reopening for the fall semester. Many schools are opting for remote courses to mitigate the spread of the virus, though such actions will be disastrous on enrollment and school budgets. Readers may recall a higher education bust is underway, one where the virus pandemic accelerated the trend (see: Higher Education Bust - Vermont College Goes On Auction Block With $3 Million Bid). So far, not everyone is thrilled about Albion's reopening plan to maximize a contact tracing app. Students and parents had this to say: A father of an Albion student said that he is upset that he must choose between keeping his daughter home from school or signing off on a university-sanctioned "invasion of privacy.""The school wants my daughter to sign a form consenting to specimen collection and lab testing," he told the Washington Free Beacon on condition of anonymity. "I have a ton of concern with that…. Why is the state of Michigan's contact tracing not enough?"Though students are required to remain on campus, professors and administrators are not. When asked about this potential loophole in its "COVID-bubble," the school declined to comment. Rising senior Andrew Arszulowicz said that he is upset with both the mandatory use of the app and the manner in which students are being treated. "I feel like I am being treated like a five-year-old that cannot be trusted to follow rules," Arszulowicz told the Free Beacon. "If the school believes masks work … why are we not allowed to leave if they work? It does not make sense to me."
OSU: 228 interim suspensions issued to students said to have hosted or attended parties and large gatherings (WCMH) — Officials with The Ohio State University continue to crack down on large off-campus parties and gatherings. According to OSU spokesperson Ben Johnson, the university issued 228 interim suspensions to students who allegedly hosted or attended such events between last Wednesday and Saturday evening. Some of those suspended have been cleared, meaning the students involved are now permitted to return to campus. This comes with classes scheduled to begin for the fall semester on Tuesday, Aug. 25. Many students who live off-campus said they thought their neighborhoods seemed quieter this past weekend, compared to normal weekends. “This is my senior year. This is my last semester down here before I leave to go to student teaching. I want to have fun. I want to enjoy my college experience. I don’t want to move back home or not be allowed to go out or do anything.” On Friday, the university issued the following statement regarding off-campus parties and gatherings: All Ohio State students must follow the university’s health and safety requirements, on and off campus. Students who host or attend a party – or any gathering – with more than 10 people will be immediately referred to Student Conduct and will face an interim suspension. Student organizations involved in unsafe gatherings could lose their university recognition and funding. Ohio State students must wear a face mask and practice physical distancing, and students must not host or attend gatherings of more than 10 people. We cannot have a successful semester if we fail to follow these simple requirements.Anyone who sees a gathering that poses a health or safety risk should call local authorities. Authorities will respond in-person and inform the occupants of the residence that they have been reported to Student Conduct and should disband.The Office of Student Life is also monitoring off-campus neighborhoods and is reporting individuals to Student Conduct. Community members can report gatherings directly to Student Conduct at studentconduct@osu.edu. Johnson said figures regarding the COVID-19 testing of students, staff and faculty members may be released within a few days.
How the University of North Carolina went from a leader in college reopenings to what the student paper called a 'clusterf---' with 135 coronavirus cases in just 7 days - Anna Pogarcic was in her Zoom class on Monday, trying to focus and not check her notifications. But Pogarcic, 21, is the editor in chief of The Daily Tar Heel, the student newspaper for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and her "Slack was blowing up," she said, referring to the digital-messaging app used by many newsrooms (including Business Insider). She tried to ignore the Slack messages rolling in and quickly hopped into a different chat room to ask if editors were prepared for a meeting later. Pogarcic said that after the other editors were uncharacteristically silent, and scrolled through more messages, she realized what had happened. "I was like, 'Oh no,'" she recalls. Because just a week after UNC opened up for the fall semester in a hybrid model — partially remote, partially in-person — the school had abandoned this plan and gone completely remote. At least 135 students have tested positive for the virus, and six clusters on campus were identified within seven days — meaning the school's COVID-19 positivity rate rose from 2.8% to 13.6% in just one week. By the following Monday, the school's Covid dashboardreported that at least 31.3% of students tested last week had been positive, bringing the total to 18.7%. The Daily Tar Heel had been doggedly reporting on the many warning signs that plagued the school's reopening, including thefour coronavirus clusters that had popped up in the three daysbefore the school's decision to go remote. Two more, a freshman dorm and a fraternity house, were identified last week, followed by others over the weekend, Indy Week reported.The eyes of professors, college students, and parents around America were on UNC after it announced its plan to reopen in May.When classes began on August 10, the university was moving f orward as if it were a relatively normal fall instead of the middle of a pandemic that is still not under control. On August 11, The Washington Post reported that a "very large share" of UNC's 20,000 undergraduates and 10,000 graduate students were in or near the college town, and more than half the dorm beds were full. On August 17, UNC asked everyone to cancel their housing contracts, except those who "need to remain in residence." The news set off a scramble, with students trying to get home safely, figuring out if they could break leases on apartments, and coping with the sudden change as academics continue on as unusual. The scramble includes UNC itself, which issued another statement to clarify that housing contracts should be canceled by August 25 and classes were canceled on August 24 and 25 for move-out purposes.Business Insider spoke with 12 students and workers at the school about what life has been like at the Chapel Hill campus amid what The Daily Tar Heel's editorial board has dubbed a "clusterf---."
The Students Behind That ‘Clusterfuck’ Headline Want You to Focus on Literally Anything Else - It’s been a busy few days for journalists at The Daily Tar Heel, the student newspaper at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. At the start of last week, Opinion Editor Paige Masten yelled across the newsroom to ask whether it was all right to use the word “clusterfuck” in a print headline describing the university’s pandemic response.“Go for it,” Anna Pogarcic, editor-in-chief, yelled back. “Print news, raise hell.” The next day, the newspaper front page read: “UNC has a clusterfuck on its hands.” The student journalists at the paper had been covering the university’srocky re-opening plan for months, and they even broke the initial storyexposing the clusters of positive Covid cases on campus. Ever since the editorial ran, The Daily Tar Heel’s work has gone viral, drawing attention from the National Press Club and Anderson Cooper.Masten and Pogarcic caught up with GEN this week to talk about the weird fixation with their headline, the next steps in their reporting, and how The Daily Tar Heel hopes to diversify.
- Paige Masten: I started planning the editorial on Friday when we found out about the first two Covid-19 clusters on campus. I just knew it was something we’re going to have to report on and people were going to be frustrated and angry. We’re all students. So we are feeling the very same things and we’re affected by the news as well. The headline was such a good play on words because the university was calling it a “cluster” and it was such a terribly handled situation, which is what clusterfuck means. I feel like they were just kind of asking for it. And it was too perfect not to run with.
- Anna Pogarcic: Media ethics people are asking about what kind of debate happened in the newsroom for this. There wasn’t. It really was just that Paige had a great idea with that wording and the headline. I was like: I mean, yeah, definitely, this is a mess. Go for it. I’ve seen some comments that using the curse word was lazy. And I just want people who are asking us to consider their own situations. Are you sitting in your home office right now writing this email to us while we are students who have been essentially forced to come back to our campus and are asking our university questions, but not getting answers?
- Masten: For some people who are visiting our website now, the editorial caught their attention. But I don’t want them to fixate on it, because I don’t think it’s important. What the newsroom is doing is equally, if not more important. They’ve been reporting on the pandemic since March when the university first shut down. That has not changed. And our reporters have been so relentless in fighting for the answers. I don’t think they’ve really gotten the credit they deserve. If it took using the word “fuck” for people to actually pay attention to the incredible work that our reporters are doing, then great.
University Of Alabama Reports More Than 560 New COVID-19 Cases In 1st Week - The University of Alabama is reporting more than 560 new cases of COVID-19 across its three campuses and medical center less than a week after starting classes. According to data from a university dashboard, students, staff and faculty at the university's main campus, Tuscaloosa, account for 531 of the total confirmed cases since Aug. 19. "The rise we've seen in recent days is unacceptable, and if unchecked, threatens our ability to complete the rest of the semester on campus," University of Alabama President Stuart Bell said at a press conference Monday. "Now is the time for action." The city of Tuscaloosa temporarily closed bars in an effort to curb the spread of the virus. At a press conference Monday, Mayor Walt Maddox said the city did so at the request of the university. Maddox issued an executive order suspending the on-site consumption of alcohol at bars and eliminating bar service at restaurants in Tuscaloosa for two weeks, starting at 5 p.m. Monday. In the order, he noted that the university is a significant driver of economic activity in the city and warned that "a move to virtual classes for the fall semester of 2020 would devastate our local economy and spell disaster for our service industry establishments." Maddox echoed those comments at the briefing, saying the rise in cases on campus poses a serious threat to the city's economy as well as its health care system. Without an intervention, he said, the DCH Regional Medical Center could be "stretched beyond its capacity within four to six weeks."
University of Alabama ordered faculty to keep quiet about COVID-19 outbreak: report - Administration officials at the University of Alabama reportedly instructed professors to keep quiet about the outbreak of more than 500 coronavirus cases, instructing them in an email not to tell their students if someone in a class tests positive.The email, obtained by the Daily Beast, comes amid a massive rise in COVID-19 cases since classes resumed on Aug. 19 at the Tuscaloosa, Ala., school. “Do not tell the rest of the class,” the email to the politics department reads, with the word “not” underlined. The email reportedly states that students who test positive are not considered an exposure risk if masks were worn and social distancing was practiced, suggesting that students and the professor may never be informed if there was an infected person in a class. According to the outlet, other departments also warned teachers against posting on social media under the claim that it could constitute a HIPAA violation. Alabama Provost James Dalton sent an email to faculty on Tuesday again stating that professors are not responsible for reporting positive cases to their students or the school because the university has a “robust program” for alerting exposed parties. “If the established rules for masks and physical distancing are followed in the classroom, then the risk of transmission from the positive student is minimal, and it is not necessary to inform the rest of the class they may have been in the same room as a positive classmate,” the email obtained by the outlet states. “For privacy reasons, the instructor should not announce to the class that a student in the class tested positive, even anonymously.” When asked for comment, Associate VP for Communications Monica Watts directed the Daily Beast to the official guidance on the school's website. The website states that “for privacy reasons, the instructor should not announce to the class that a student in the class has tested positive, even anonymously.” Professors can request confirmation through a 30-second self-reported questionnaire called the US Healthcheck system to “verify that students are in compliance with all health and safety protocols,” Watts added. If a student tests positive on campus, the COVID Support Program is automatically informed and the university reaches out. However, the Daily Beast noted that students who are tested by an off-campus provider are expected to notify the school’s COVID-19 hotline or go through an online reporting portal. Michael Innis-Jimenez, an American studies professor, told the outlet that a lot of his colleagues are “terrified.” The instructor said he shifted to teaching his classes remotely after learning the school’s plan for reopening. “Every statement at least for the last month has been about this plan, they’ve got this plan,” he said, before adding, “It makes it feel like a lot of this is for show, especially when they don’t want you to confirm it’s not working.”
University of Alabama reports over 1,000 students tested positive for coronavirus - Over 1,000 students have tested positive for COVID-19 at the University of Alabama (UA) since classes began at the school earlier this month. According to a university dashboard, 1,043 students tested positive for the virus between Aug. 19 and Aug. 27. Since the beginning of the year, a total of 1,201 students have tested positive. The school represents one of the largest coronavirus clusters reported at any college or university in the country since the start of the fall semester. The dashboard shows that nine faculty members have tested positive for the virus since Aug. 19, the day classes officially began. The University of Alabama System confirmed 10 cases among students at both its Huntsville location and its Birmingham location since Aug. 19. The university system said in a Friday statement that no students who have tested positive for the virus have been hospitalized. “Our exposure notification efforts have revealed no evidence of virus transmission due to in-person class instruction. We remain satisfied that the precautions implemented prior to the resumption of classes – including masking, distancing, and a blend of in-person and remote instruction – are appropriate and effective,” Dr. Ricky Friend, Dean of the College of Community Health Sciences at UA, said in the Friday statement. University officials also called on students to practice social distancing, frequently wash their hands, wear a mask or face coverings and take other health precautions. ICE reports over 230 active COVID-19 infections at Arizona facility More than 500 visitors to Nevada have tested positive for COVID-19... University of Alabama President Stuart Bell on Monday called the spike in COVID-19 cases on campus “unacceptable.” “Make no mistake, this trend is a real threat to our ability to complete the semester on campus. The solution is proven: testing, mask wearing, social distancing, personal hygiene and compliance with crowd size limits are all that are asked as we work together to complete the semester together,” Bell said. Colleges and universities across the U.S. have grappled with returning to classes, with schools adopting a slate of in-person, virtual and hybrid models.
Northwestern University freshmen, sophomores will not return to campus - Underclassmen at Northwestern University will not return to campus this semester and fraternity and sorority houses remain shuttered, the university announced Friday. University officials said the change in plans was due to community feedback, coronavirus cases rising throughout suburban Chicago and other schools' experiences reopening their campuses. “This is not a letter we wanted to write, but we are compelled to make several adjustments to our plans for undergraduate students this fall after consulting with Northwestern Medicine experts as well as state and local public health officials,” the university told students in the announcement. Other universities across the country have experienced outbreaks upon reopening, with some reporting clusters in Greek housing complexes. . The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, for example, suspended in-person undergraduate courses earlier this month after reporting several coronavirus clusters since students were welcomed back to campus. “If all goes as planned,” Northwestern officials said, the students will be able to come to campus for the Winter Quarter in January. The university also announced they will reduce undergraduate tuition by 10% for Fall Quarter. Since the start of the pandemic, Illinois has reported 231,363 cases of the coronavirus and 8,008 deaths.
‘Frats Are Being Frats’: Greek Life Is Stoking the Virus on Some Campuses - The big bouquets of roses. The towering signs spelling out the letters of each house in Greek. And the hundreds of rushees clutching their acceptance envelopes as they run through campus together. Bid day at the University of Alabama, when sororities decide which pledges will join their sisterhoods, is cause for celebration. But this past weekend, women at the school, which has one of the biggest Greek systems in the country with 11,000 members, were warned not to party following their invitations to join any of two dozen sororities because of the potential spread of the coronavirus.That did not stop all of them. The bars and sidewalks along the Strip were crowded on Sunday as sorority members and other students reveled in their return-to-school rituals, sparking criticism from public officials, the fury of university officials and worries from other Tuscaloosans. The concerns over Greek life come amid reports of virus outbreaks at fraternities and sororities across the country. Universities are struggling with how to prevent tightly packed sorority and fraternity houses from turning into coronavirus clusters.At the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, officials abruptly called off in-person classes on Monday after identifying four clusters in student housing facilities, including one at the Sigma Nu fraternity. The New York Times has identified at least 251 cases of the virus tied to fraternities and sororities. At the University of California, Berkeley, 47 cases were identified in a single week in early July, most of which were connected to the Greek system. In Mississippi, a significant outbreak in Oxford, home to the state’s flagship university, was partially blamed on fraternity parties. At the University of Washington’s Seattle campus, at least 165 of the 290 cases identified by the school have been associated with its Greek Row.As students return to campus, there have been virus outbreaks at residence halls and other university housing as well. More than 13,000 students, faculty and staff members at colleges have been infected with the coronavirus, according to a Times database of cases confirmed by schools and government agencies. Though they dominate social life on many campuses, their houses are often not owned or governed by the universities, and have frequently been the site of excessive drinking, sexual assault and hazing. That same lack of oversight, some experts say, extends to controlling the virus. Even on campuses that are offering online instruction only, people are still living in some sorority and fraternity houses. Among the 25 fraternity houses hosting students over the summer at the University of Washington, 15 of them suffered a coronavirus outbreak in the last week of July. At least 165 students of the 1,000 living there tested positive for the virus. Students quarantined within their fraternity houses, sometimes designating an entire floor for infected students. Across two of the facilities, 45 out of 65 students tested positive.And at the University of Southern California, where classes — all held remotely — started on Monday, administrators have traced two outbreaks to fraternity houses over the past month. In mid-July around 45 people tested positive for the virus, most of them members of fraternities or sororities. And last week 15 people were found to be infected, some of them fraternity members and others who lived nearby.
UT fraternities, sorority placed on interim suspension for COVID-19 violations - Five fraternities and one sorority have been placed on interim suspension and will be investigated by the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for breaking COVID-19 guidelines. The following organizations have been placed on interim suspension:
- Alpha Tau Omega
- Sigma Alpha Epsilon
- Delta Tau Delta
- Pi Kappa Alpha
- Kappa Alpha
- Chi Omega
On Wednesday, Chancellor Donde Plowman and Vice Chancellor for Student Life Frank Cuevas said the university had received "reports that they held or organized gatherings in a manner that endangered the health, safety or welfare of others.""These organizations did not comply with the Student Code of Conduct and the university’s COVID-19 health and safety directives for events on and off campus," the message said. "These organizations are not permitted to host social events, either virtually or in person, while under investigation. They are not permitted to host any group meetings in person, even if those events are not social in nature."As vice chancellor, Cuevas can impose interim actions before the student conduct process is complete, UT spokesperson Tyra Haag said. Those actions, in this case an interim suspension with gathering restrictions, will remain in place until the conduct process is complete and sanctions are in place, Haag said. The announcement comes days after the university announced it had taken disciplinary action against four students — three for throwing a party that did not comply with COVID-19 guidelines and one for leaving isolation when they had tested positive for COVID-19.
Hundreds of university students have been suspended for violating COVID safety policies as cases rise across college campuses - Across the country, college students are being suspended for violating university COVID safety protocols. Earlier this week, Ohio State University suspended 228 students prior to classes starting, CNN reported. Students are limited to socially distanced gatherings of 10 or fewer people and risk interim suspension if they violate guidelines."Let me remind you: organizations and individuals will be held accountable for their unsafe behaviors," Vice President for Student Life at OSU Melissa Shivers said in a letter to students on Friday. "And remember that this is all about more than the individual. We all have one shot at this."At Syracuse University in New York, 23 students were suspended for similar violations to the college's COVID safety protocols. The suspensions took place after a group of students gathered on the campus lawn Wednesday evening."The world is watching, and they expect you to fail. Prove them wrong. Be better. Be adults. Think of someone other than yourself. And also, do not test the resolve of this university to take swift action to prioritize the health and well-being of our campus and Central New York community.," Vice Chancellor J. Michael Haynie said in a statement emailed to the Syracuse University community on Thursday. Haynie criticized students who "selfishly jeopardized" the ability for the university to continue with the fall semester on campus. Schools across the country are grappling with the risks of bringing students back to campus. At the University of Alabama, more than 560 cases of coronavirus have been reported with 531 of them being at the flagship Tuscaloosa campus, the Washington Post reported. "The rise in COVID cases that we have seen in recent days is unacceptable and if unchecked threatens our ability to complete the semester on campus”
As school year starts, credit unions on campus brace for a slowdown - Credit unions chartered to serve colleges and universities could see traditional fall-semester membership gains decimated because of the coronavirus. The start of the new academic year is often the biggest time of the year for recruiting new members, thanks in part to the influx of new students on campus. But many schools have had to alter their plans for the new semester because of the ongoing pandemic. The University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill initially had students on campus for in-person instruction but reversed course after one week. Similarly, Michigan State University switched gears at the last minute and moved to online-only courses shortly before students were set to return from summer break. Several universities that had made plans for in-person coursework this fall have seen spikes in COVID-19 diagnoses with students back on campus. The University of Alabama reported roughly 560 cases during its first week of classes, while the University of Kansas saw 222 positive tests in just two days. The National Credit Union Administration lists about 50 credit unions chartered to serve colleges and universities, and institutions serving those groups are doing their best to roll with the punches. “Your strategic plan kind of went out the window on March 15,” quipped Daniel Berry, CEO of Duke University Federal Credit Union. “From a student perspective, I think a lot of schools had the best of intentions,” he added. “They thought they could control it [with online classes in the spring, masks and social distancing] and kind of underestimated that teenagers want to be together. That’s part of the college experience.” Duke CU serves some of the student population but is more targeted at faculty and staff. It normally sees about 100 new members per month, but that figure dropped by more than half when quarantine started in the spring. Things have improved to the point that new memberships are now up to 60 or 70 per month. “Now you can’t put a tent up [in areas where students congregate], you can’t say, ‘Here’s a t-shirt if you join us.' Everything’s online,” said Berry, noting that other tactics such as geofencing also don’t work without the influx of people on campus. “You’ve got to adapt, but still your results are going to be lower than normal.”
NYT's 'Debunked' 1619 Project Will "Set The Tone" For The School Year At Massachusetts College - The New York Times' debunked 1619 Project will be the literature that “sets the tone” for the year at one Massachusetts college. In a school-wide email on August 13, Mount Holyoke College announced that the New York TimesMagazine’s 1619 Project will be this year’s “Common Read.” Holyoke’s “Common Read” tradition started as a component of Mount Holyoke College’s Orientation in 2000, and occurs annually, “designed to give students new to Mount Holyoke College their first intellectual dialogue based on a shared text.” The program “sets the tone for the community” and “helps collectively frame discussions for the upcoming academic year.” Published in August 2019, The 1619 Project is a series of essays meant to commemorate the 400th anniversary of the first arrival of slaves in modern-day Virginia. It has been widely criticized for its claims that America was founded on the basis of preserving slavery. Yet, multiple Pulitzer Prize-winning historians have come out and condemned the project. As the Pulitzer-winning historian of the American Revolution and Brown University Professor Emeritus Gordon Woodput it, the project is “wrong in so many ways.” Another Pulitzer-winning historian, Princeton University Professor Emeritus James McPherson, said that the essays are an “unbalanced, one-sided account” that “left most of the history out.” An essayist for The 1619 Project, Nikole Hannah-Jones, was awarded the 2020 Pulitzer Prize for commentary. Jones slammed her project’s critics as “old, white male historians,” who are just “mad at the 1619 Project for pointing out the racism of our founders and one Great Emancipator.”
New York University moves to implement racial segregation in student dorms - Since late June, the Office of Residential Life and Housing Services at New York University (NYU) has been working closely with a small, student-led task force to make racially segregated housing a reality in undergraduate student dorms. On July 20, Washington Square News, the weekly undergraduate student newspaper of NYU, published an article titled “Student-Led Task Force Calls for Black Housing on Campus,” in which they reported on the university’s willingness to help implement residential communities open solely to “Black-identifying students with Black Resident Assistants.” Since then, the university has officially given the project a green light, aiming to have NYU’s first segregated residential floor established by Fall 2021. A little over two months ago, a recently-organized advocacy group called Black Violets created an online petition demanding that the university “implement Black student housing on campus in the vein of themed engagement floors across first-year and upperclassmen residence halls.” In their petition, the group argues that “Too often in the classroom and in residential life, black students bear the brunt of educating their uninformed peers about racism.” African American students, they state, desperately require a “safe space” where they can escape from students, staff, and faculty of other races. At NYU, “themed engagement floors,” also known as “Themed Engagement Communities,” are a network of theme-based floors, located in various undergraduate residence halls, that allow students living on a specific floor to explore a specific subject through various programs and activities planned by a Resident Assistant. There are over twenty Themed Engagement Communities at NYU, with themes ranging from film, literature, and theater to technology, science, and foreign languages. All floors are open to all students, who request residency on a specific floor prior to the start of the academic year. Now, despite signs of minimal support from the undergraduate student body—the online petition has garnered a mere 1,105 signatures out of the 26,733 total undergraduates currently studying at NYU—the proposal for race-based housing has been warmly welcomed by the university administration. There is nothing progressive about the establishment of racially segregated housing at NYU. It is irrelevant whether the segregation being implemented is voluntary or mandatory. Racial segregation, in all forms, is entirely reactionary.
College Republicans at Arizona State raise money for alleged Kenosha shooter: 'He does not deserve to have his entire life destroyed' College Republicans at Arizona State University are raising money for the teen suspected of killing two people and injuring another at a protest in Kenosha, Wis., this week. "Half of all funds collected this semester for Republicans United will be donated to 17-year-old Kyle Rittenhouse legal defense fund," a tweet by the group said Thursday. "He does not deserve to have his entire life destroyed because of the actions of violent anarchists during a lawless riot." Kyle Rittenhouse, a 17-year-old from Illinois, has been accused of shooting and killing 26-year-old Anthony Huber and 36-year-old Joseph Rosenbaum in Kenosha. Rittenhouse was formally charged with intentional homicide, one count of attempted first-degree intentional homicide and two counts of first-degree reckless endangerment. He was taken into custody Wednesday to face those charges in Wisconsin. The protests in Wisconsin came in response to the Kenosha police shooting of Jacob Blake, a 29-year-old Black man who was shot in the back seven times while trying to get into his vehicle. Blake is currently paralyzed from the waist down. According to attorneys representing Rittenhouse, a local business owner — whose car dealership sustained vast amounts of damage during the previous nights of protest — called on Rittenhouse and a friend to provide security for his store amid the protests. Rittenhouse's attorneys claim his involvement in the shooting was an act of self-defense protected by the Second Amendment.
University of Pennsylvania professor wants to investigate claim Trump faked admission exam -A University of Pennsylvania professor is asking the school to launch a probe into the allegations that President Trump faked his admission exam. Six faculty members first asked the school’s provost to investigate the claims in mid-July after the president’s niece, Mary Trump, published a book that claims Trump paid someone to take his SATs.At the time the provost told Eric Orts, one of the professors asking for the probe, that although they found the allegations concerning, “this situation occurred too far in the past to make a useful or probative factual inquiry possible,” according to the Daily Pennsylvanian, a student-run publication.The Washington Post last weekend published secretly recorded audio from Trump’s sister Maryanne Trump Barry in which she said “he got into University of Pennsylvania because he had somebody take the exams.” Mary Trump said it was a man named Joe Shapiro. The widow of a friend of Trump’s named Joe Shapiro at UPenn has said her husband did not take the exams for President Trump, but Mary Trump says it is another man with the same name. Orts, a professor of legal studies and business ethics at the UPenn's Wharton School, told the Post he recontacted the provost saying the new audio constituted the kind of “new evidence” they asked for. UPenn did not immediately respond to an inquiry from The Hill. The provost also did not respond to Orts at the time of the Post’s reporting.The Trump campaign and White House have dismissed the audio from Barry, with one adviser likening their relationship to a "sibling rivalry." The president has previously questioned the credentials of several Democratic politicians, including former President Obama. While Obama was in office, Trump pledged to make a $5 million donation to a charity if he released his college applications and transcripts. Trump’s former personal attorney and fixer Michael Cohen said during a congressional testimony that he took legal measures to ensure the president’s academic records were not leaked.Fordham University, where the president was a student from 1964 to 1966, later confirmed Cohen threatened legal action. Trump graduated from the University of Pennsylvania in 1968 after transferring from Fordham.
PayPal vows action after advocates flag ties to unaccredited schools - PayPal Holdings says it has begun taking action against for-profit educational institutions that have offered its consumer credit product in inaccurate or misleading ways. The company vowed a quick response to concerns raised by the Student Borrower Protection Center, which last week asked federal banking regulators to investigate business practices involving PayPal Credit. That unsecured line of credit is best known as a way to finance e-commerce purchases, but it can also be used to pay for higher education. The Washington-based consumer advocacy organization also called on PayPal to begin a comprehensive review of its connections to the for-profit college sector, citing concerns about the cost and marketing of the credit line product. Synchrony Financial, a banking company based in Stamford, Conn., is the exclusive U.S. issuer of PayPal Credit. PayPal, of San Jose, Calif., said in an emailed statement that it takes the advocacy group’s claims “very seriously.” PayPal also said it does not market its credit product directly to for-profit financial institutions and that it has no direct relationship with schools that were cited by the Student Borrower Protection Center. PayPal said that it “adheres to all state and federal regulations to ensure clear, easy to understand information about credit products” and vowed to terminate the use of its services by any organization that is found to be providing inaccurate or misleading messages about the line of credit product without PayPal’s prior knowledge or consent. A Synchrony spokeswoman declined to comment Monday. Last month, the Student Borrower Protection Center published a report with findings from its investigation into what it dubbed the “shadow student debt” market. That label refers to high-cost credit offered to students at for-profit educational institutions under terms that may not meet the legal definition of a private student loan. The report found that PayPal offers credit to borrowers seeking to finance higher education programs that do not allow their enrollees to use federal student loans. In a letter Thursday to PayPal CEO Dan Schulman, the Student Borrower Protection Center said that it found more than 150 educational institutions that prominently advertise PayPal Credit as a preferred financing option. These schools, many of which are unaccredited, offer training to become makeup artists, flight attendants and bodyguards, as well as courses of study in swordsmanship, hypnosis and veganism, among others, according to the advocacy group’s letter.
Student borrower protection bill on verge of passage in California - The California Senate passed a bill Friday that would impose tough new standards on banks and certain other companies that service education loans. Supporters expect the legislation, which is known as the Student Borrower Bill of Rights, to be approved by the state Assembly and signed into law by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. If that happens, California will become the first U.S. state where borrowers have the right to sue for damages when student loan servicers fail to process payments in a timely manner or fail to meet other obligations. “The Student Borrower Bill of Rights will protect Californians from predatory loan servicing practices and help ensure they stand a fair shot at putting these debts behind them,” Suzanne Martindale, senior policy counsel at Consumer Reports, which pushed for the legislation’s passage, said in a press release. The legislation, introduced by Democratic Assemblymember Mark Stone, would apply to servicers in both the federal student loan market and the smaller private student loan market. It easily passed the California Assembly last year but did not get a vote in the Senate until Friday, when it passed by a 23-8 margin. The current version of the bill includes a few concessions to student loan servicers, Martindale said in an interview. For example, the legislation now gives servicers 45 days to cure problems before borrowers’ lawsuits can proceed. In addition, the Senate-passed bill provides an exemption for federally chartered credit unions, though not for banks, according to Martindale. She said that language was also added to clarify that while the bill is meant to operate consistently with federal law, it can be preempted to the extent that there is inconsistency. Beth Mills, a spokeswoman for the California Bankers Association, which opposes the bill, said Friday that the legislation still fails to include exemptions that would be necessary to properly address federal preemption conflicts. By requiring state officials to investigate, examine and mandate the production of information held by banks, the legislation runs afoul of the exclusive visitorial authority of federal regulators, Mills argued in an email. Consumer advocates, meanwhile, argue that legislation is necessary to provide a check on an industry where abuses are rampant. The California legislation is part of an effort by Democrats and advocacy groups to write stronger state-level rules for the student loan industry, in light of what they see as lax treatment by the Trump administration. The bill would require servicers to post, process and credit student loan payments within certain time frames. It would require servicers to apply overpayments in a way that is consistent with borrowers’ best interests. And it would mandate that servicers apply partial payments in a way that minimizes late fees and negative credit reporting. The bill would also create a borrower advocate within California’s government to receive consumer complaints.
Pennsylvania Governor Calls For State To Legalize Marijuana, Citing Pandemic --Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf is asking state legislators to legalize recreational marijuana, saying the government could use the tax revenue to support small businesses and to fund restorative justice programs. The governor's call to legalize the sale and use of marijuana is part of a broader plan that Wolf says will help Pennsylvania's economy, which is suffering from months of shutdowns and slowdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Wolf's plan calls for some of the revenue from marijuana sales to be used to fund grants for small businesses. And 50% of that funding, he says, would be reserved for historically disadvantaged businesses. Other revenue would go toward "restorative justice programs that give priority to repairing the harm done to crime victims and communities as a result of marijuana criminalization." Marijuana has been legal for medicinal use in Pennsylvania since 2016, thanks to legislation Wolf signed. The state formally activated its medical marijuana program in 2018. It's uncertain what kind of reception the Democratic governor's plan could meet in the Republican-led General Assembly. Wolf acknowledged that in recent months, Democrats' initiatives "have been stopped at every turn by the Republican majority focused on ignoring the public health crisis."
Elon Musk unveils pig with computer chip in brain - Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk on Friday showcased pigs with computer chips in their brains during his unveiling of Neuralink, an upcoming technology aiming to bring symbiosis between artificial intelligence and the human brain. The live showcase involved displaying real-time neural signals from one of the pigs, whom Musk named Gertrude, CNBC reported. Musk said the process for installing a Neuralink in a human brain would be an hourlong operation that is no more invasive than LASIK eye surgery, inserting a coin-sized device into the skull that would leave a tiny scar after the electrodes are inserted in the brain. He likened the technology to being essentially a "Fitbit in your skull." While the ambitious project has been under wraps since its announcement in 2016, Musk said the device could help fight memory loss, blindness and paralysis, among other medical conditions. He added that a mainstream audience likely would not be able to use a Neuralink device electively for more than a decade. "There will be ethical and safety issues to work through, and for a long time, it's likely that you'll have to have a real medical need to access this technology," he said.
Postal Service Slowdowns Cause Dangerous Delays In Medication Delivery On Aug. 3, a prescription for Zach Matheny's blood thinning medication was filled at his pharmacy and sent out for delivery via the U.S. Postal Service. It never arrived at his home in Columbus, Ohio."After a week I started to get worried, so I went ahead and called the pharmacy," Matheny says. "And after some back-and-forth, they essentially gave me the answer along the lines of, 'Well, it might be lost because of everything going on.'" Recent delivery delays have raised concerns about the U.S. Postal Service handling ballots for November's election. They've also created immediate worries for those who rely heavily on the service to obtain lifesaving medications.There have always been minor issues with medication delivery by mail, but that problem has been exacerbated by recent changes imposed by the Trump administration, such as limits on overtime and a requirement that trucks leave on schedule even if mail isn't loaded yet."We have heard some extreme anecdotes over the last couple weeks where patients are waiting one, two, three weeks for their medications," Matheny called the Postal Service about his prescription and was told that employees couldn't locate his medication. He called his insurer, but it wouldn't approve another refill because the medication is too expensive. "I could die," Matheny says. "The issue with blood clots is, if you do not catch it in time, they will move up through your body, get up to your brain and explode. ... I'm really worried."Matheny is not alone. According to data from before the COVID-19 pandemic, collected by the Kaiser Family Foundation, Ohio residents rely on mail-order prescriptions more per capita than any other state in the country.Nationally, an Ipsos poll found that 1 in 5 Americans got medication through the mail in the past week, and 1 in 4 of them experienced a delay or nondelivery. The USPS handles approximately 1.2 billion prescription shipments every year. That's nearly 4 million a day, six days a week, according to the National Association of Letter Carriers.
Mail delays may affect medication supply for nearly 1 in 4 Americans over 50 - The timeliness of mail delivery may affect access to medication for many middle-aged and older adults, according to a new analysis of data from a national poll of people aged 50 to 80.Nearly one in four people in this age group said they receive at least one medication by mail, but that percentage rises to 29% when the poll results are limited to people who take at least one prescription medication. Nearly 17% of people in this group say they receive all their medications via mail.In addition, 35% of those who receive medications by mail said that their insurance requires them to do so.The data on the use of mail delivery for medications come from a poll taken in 2017 as part of the ongoing National Poll on Healthy Aging, but not previously published in poll reports. The poll did not ask if the mail delivery was through the United States Postal Service or a private package delivery service.While deliveries of all kinds have been delayed during the months of the COVID-19 pandemic, USPS delays have been in the spotlight in recent weeks. Congressional hearings on this topic are now under way.The National Poll on Healthy Aging is conducted by the University of Michigan Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation, and sponsored by AARP and Michigan Medicine, U-M's academic medical center.In addition to those who said their insurance required mail delivery, 53% said the delivery option saved money, and 42% cited convenience. Nearly 30% said they chose to use the mail for medications that they took on a long-term basis and didn't need to discuss with a pharmacy team member. And nearly 29% said their doctor's office automatically sent their prescriptions to a company that sends medications by mail.
Researchers see an increase in fraudulent COVID-19 posts on social media - During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, social media platforms have played a major role in conveying information from health care leaders and government officials to communities about how to help stop the spread of COVID-19. Yet as quickly as new and accurate information on the virus becomes available, so, too do counterfeit health products, such as illegal or unapproved testing kits, untested treatments and purported cures. In a new study published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research Public Health and Surveillance on August 25, 2020, researchers at University of California San Diego School of Medicine found thousands of social media posts on two popular platforms -- Twitter and Instagram -- tied to financial scams and possible counterfeit goods specific to COVID-19 products and unapproved treatments "We started this work with the opioid crisis and have been performing research like this for many years in order to detect illicit drug dealers," said Timothy Mackey, PhD, associate adjunct professor at UC San Diego School of Medicine and lead author of the study. "We are now using some of those same techniques in this study to identify fake COVID-19 products for sale. From March to May 2020, we have identified nearly 2,000 fraudulent postings likely tied to fake COVID-19 health products, financial scams, and other consumer risk."According to Mackey, the fraudulent posts came in two waves focused on unproven marketing claims for prevention or cures and fake testing kits. He said a third wave of fake pharmaceutical treatments is now materializing and will worsen when public health officials announce development of an effective vaccine or other therapeutic treatments. The researchers identified suspected posts through a combination of Natural Language Processing and machine learning. Topic model clusters were transferred into a deep learning algorithm to detect fraudulent posts. The findings were customized to a data dashboard in order to enable public health intelligence and provide reports to authorities, including the World Health Organization and U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA).
Blood pressure medication improves COVID-19 survival rates - Medication for high blood pressure could improve Covid-19 survival rates and reduce the severity of infection - according to new research from the University of East Anglia. Researchers studied 28,000 patients taking antihypertensives - a class of drugs that are used to treat hypertension (high blood pressure). They found that the risk of severe Covid-19 illness and death was reduced for patients with high blood pressure who were taking Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) or Angiotensin Receptor Blockers (ARB). "We know that patients with cardiovascular diseases are at particular risk of severe Covid-19 infection. But at the start of the pandemic, there was concern that specific medications for high blood pressure could be linked with worse outcomes for Covid-19 patients. "We studied the outcomes for patients taking antihypertensives - looking particularly at what we call 'critical' outcomes such as being admitted to intensive care or being put on a ventilator, and death." They compared data from Covid-19 patients who were taking ACEi or ARB medications with those who were not - focusing on whether they experienced 'critical' events (admission to intensive care and invasive or non-invasive ventilation) and death. "We found that a third of Covid-19 patients with high blood pressure and a quarter of patients overall were taking an ACEi/ARBs. This is likely due to the increasing risk of infection in patients with co-morbidities such as cardiovascular diseases, hypertension and diabetes. "But the really important thing that we showed was that there is no evidence that these medications might increase the severity of Covid-19 or risk of death. "On the contrary, we found that there was a significantly lower risk of death and critical outcomes, so they might in fact have a protective role - particularly in patients with hypertension. "Covid-19 patients with high blood pressure who were taking ACEi/ARB medications were 0.67 times less likely to have a critical or fatal outcome than those not taking these medications..
Trump Announces Emergency Authorization For Blood Plasma As Treatment For COVID - President Trump announced that a coronavirus treatment that involves blood plasma from people who’ve recovered from the disease will be expanded to many more sick Americans after the FDA approved use of the therapy. “This is a powerful therapy,” Trump said during a White House press conference moments before futures opened. “Today’s action will dramatically expand access to this treatment.”Trump said the FDA had concluded the treatment is "safe" and "very effective" although the therapy has yet to undergo the full set of clinical trials usually required of drugs seeking FDA approval.As Bloomberg notes, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration confirmed Sunday, just ahead of Trump’s news conference, that it had cleared what’s known as convalescent plasma for use with certain patients. The move would make it easier for patients to get the product, which Trump has promoted even though its effectiveness remains unproven."Convalescent plasma has been a tried-and-true therapeutic treatment in prior outbreaks,” Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said at the news conference, while FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn said researchers had seen a 35% improvement in patients treated with the convalescent plasma.
Blood Types & Covid-19 - There’s been a lot of discussion about differences in susceptibility and symptom severity among people with different blood types. Does your blood type determine how likely you are to contract COVID-19 and/or the severity of your case? We’re looking at some initial data to see how this idea holds up. Do People with Certain Blood Types Have Worse Covid-19 Symptoms? – YouTube (video by Dr Aaron Carroll, The Incidental Economist.)
Asymptomatic Children Carry Higher COVID-19 Viral Load Than Adults In ICUs, Study Finds A study released Thursday shows that children may play a larger role in community spread of COVID-19 than previously understood.The research out of Massachusetts General Hospital and MassGeneral Hospital for Children shows that infected children — even those without symptoms — can have higher levels of virus in their airways than adults hospitalized in intensive care units. More than a quarter of the 192 children enrolled in the study tested positive for COVID-19. Published in the Journal of Pediatrics, the report says educational settings from daycare to high school should take the new information into account when determining how and whether in-person learning should proceed.Some kids enrolled in the study went to an urgent care clinic for testing, while others were hospitalized with symptoms of COVID-19 or the relatedinflammatory illness impacting children, says Lael Yonker, lead author of the study and director of the hospital's Cystic Fibrosis Center.“What surprised us the most was that children carried very high viral loads in their airway secretions,” she says, “loads that were higher than adults who are hospitalized for their severe COVID illness.”With respiratory viruses, in general, a higher viral load means the virus is more likely to pass from one person to another because it’s transmitted through droplets, she says.Testing for the study took place at a centralized COVID-19 screening center that encompassed people from a large geographic and socioeconomic range, she says. But it’s hard to apply these findings to the greater population because children often experience mild symptoms or are asymptomatic when they get sick, which makes it more difficult to realize who’s infected. One of Yonker’s co-authors notes that kids are not immune to getting sick — which puts to rest President Trump’s contention that children are “almost immune.” At least 97,000 kids tested positive for COVID-19 in the U.S. during the last two weeks of July, marking a 40% surge in the country’s cumulative total of child cases.
Failure to 'flatten the curve' may kill more people than we thought -New research by the University of Minnesota and the University of Washington finds that every six additional ICU beds or seven additional non-ICU beds filled by COVID-19 patients leads to one additional COVID-19 death over the following week. "A spike in hospitalization naturally leads to more deaths, but these deaths may not only come from those who are hospitalized, but also from those who should have been hospitalized but were not," said co-author Anirban Basu, a UW professor of health economics. Results of the study, published in the Journal of General Internal Medicine, show the impact of ICU bed use remains fairly constant as ICU bed availability changes. These effects are also in line with recent literature estimates for the mortality among COVID-19 patients receiving critical care, that show mortality rates increase as ICUs fill up. What was surprising, Basu explained, was the effect of non-ICU beds. For additional seven hospitalized patients not in intensive care, one would expect about 0.5 deaths over the next seven days based on general data put out by CDC. However, this new research finds that the total number of COVID-19 deaths actually occurring is much higher. "This may indicate that constraints in available capacity of non-ICU beds may have a spillover effect to non-hospitalized patients. In fact, the study found that the effect of non-ICU beds rises steadily as more and more non-ICU beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients," said Basu, who is also director of the CHOICE Institute at the UW School of Pharmacy.
Citizens' adherence to COVID-19 social distancing measures depends on government response - A new study conducted by a team of researchers, including University of Colorado Denver Business School associate professor Jiban Khuntia, PhD, found while social distancing is an effective preventative measure in the fight against COVID-19, there are significant variations being observed in how and why individuals follow the restrictions. The reasons ascribed in the study are: (1) citizen's perception that government is doing good by responding to COVID situation, (2) citizen's perception of government business reopening efforts are good, (3) messages sent to citizens through different information sources, (4) specific social media use and (5) levels of knowledge around COVID.Looking at three different countries--the United States, Kuwait, and South Korea--researchers found government response efforts to COVID-19 heavily influenced self-adherence to social distancing measures. According to data collected, overall, people believe they are following social distancing recommendations, but when asked if others adhering, the numbers decrease, as shown in the table below. According to researchers, governments who instilled fear instead of providing important, knowledgeable information, are less likely to be trusted. This fear can lead to panic and limited adherence to policies implemented later. For example, in the United States, some citizens are hesitant to follow masks orders because they believe it will take away their freedom. Khuntia believes governments should have stated early-on that mask-wearing does not infringe on your freedom, but rather saves lives.
Effectiveness of cloth masks depends on type of covering - Density and temperature are intricately related, and coughs tend to be warmer than their surrounding area. Tapping into this connection, Simha and Rao utilized a technique called schlieren imaging, which visualizes changes in density, to capture pictures of voluntary coughs from five test subjects. By tracking the motion of a cough over successive images, the team estimated velocity and spread of the expelled droplets.Unsurprisingly, they found N95 masks to be the most effective at reducing the horizontal spread of a cough. The N95 masks reduced a cough's initial velocity by up to a factor of 10 and limit its spread to between 0.1 and 0.25 meters. An uncovered cough, in contrast, can travel up to 3 meters, but even a simple disposable mask can bring this all the way down to 0.5 meters. "Even if a mask does not filter out all the particles, if we can prevent clouds of such particles from traveling very far, it's better than not doing anything," said Simha. "In situations where sophisticated masks are not available, any mask is better than no mask at all for the general public in slowing the spread of infection." Some of the other comparisons, however, were striking. For example, using an elbow to cover up a cough is typically considered a good alternative in a pinch, which is contradictory to what the pair found. Unless covered by a sleeve, a bare arm cannot form the proper seal against the nose necessary to obstruct airflow. A cough is then able to leak through any openings and propagate in many directions. Simha and Rao hope their findings will put to rest the argument that regular cloth masks are ineffective, but they emphasize that masks must continue to be used in conjunction with social distancing. "Adequate distancing is something that must not be ignored, since masks are not foolproof," Simha said.
How effective does a COVID-19 vaccine need to be to stop the pandemic? -- In a new study, a computer simulation model found that if 75 percent of the population gets vaccinated, the vaccine has to have an efficacy (ability to protect against infection) of at least 70 percent to prevent an epidemic and at least 80 percent to extinguish an ongoing epidemic. If only 60 percent of the population gets vaccinated, the thresholds are even higher, around 80 percent to prevent an epidemic and 100 percent to extinguish an ongoing epidemic. "Some are pushing for a vaccine to come out as quickly as possible so that life can 'return to normal.' However, we have to set appropriate expectations. Just because a vaccine comes out doesn't mean you can go back to life as it was before the pandemic," notes lead investigator Bruce Y. Lee, MD, MBA, Public Health Informatics, Computational and Operations Research, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York, NY, USA. "It is important to remember that a vaccine is like many other products - what matters is not just that a product is available, but also how effective it is." The investigators say the results of their study can provide targets for vaccine developers as well as shape expectations for policy makers, business leaders, and the general public.
New analysis shows hydroxychloroquine does not lower mortality in COVID-19 patients, and is associated with increased mortality when combined with the antibiotic azithromycin - A new meta-analysis of published studies into the drug hydroxychloroquine shows that it does not lower mortality in COVID-19 patients, and using it combined with the antibiotic azithromycin is associated with a 27% increased mortality. The study is published inClinical Microbiology and Infection, the official journal of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID). "This meta-analysis shows that hydroxychloroquine alone is not effective for the treatment of COVID-19 patients and that the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin increases the risk of mortality," say the authors who include Thibault Fiolet, Center for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health, INSERM, Institut Gustave Roussy and Paris-Sud 11 University/Paris-Saclay University, Paris, France. "These data support current clinical recommendations such as those of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) which do not recommend the use of hydroxychloroquine alone or in combination with azithromycin for COVID-19 patients."In this new analysis, the authors searched for studies that assessed chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin. The authors found 29 articles that met their criteria, all except one of which were conducted on hospitalised patients and evaluated the effects of hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin. The results showed that hydroxychloroquine was not associated with mortality, either in all trials combined, or in separate analyses of randomised controlled trials or observational studies. The relative risk of death for use of hydroxychloroquine was 17% lower than controls for all studies combined, but 9% higher in randomised controlled trials. In both cases, these results were not statistically significant. However, the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in patients with COVID-19 was associated with a statistically significant 27% increase in mortality compared with controls. The authors say: "These results confirm the preliminary findings of several observational studies which have shown that the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin might increase the risk of acute, life-threatening cardiovascular events."
China’s Vaccine Front-Runner Aims to Beat Covid the Old-Fashioned Way - Many of the 200-plus Covid-19 vaccine projects under way around the world are focused on new technologies—inoculations based on messenger RNA, for example, or genetically modified cold viruses. The company developing one of China’s leading vaccine candidates, by contrast, is betting that humanity’s best chance may lie with a shot not too different from the kind that’s been in use for hundreds of years. Beijing-based Sinovac Biotech Ltd., a company with a strong medical track record but a turbulent corporate history, began final-stage trials in July on CoronaVac. It relies on an inactive version of the novel coronavirus to teach human immune systems to recognize and destroy the real thing. In terms of timing, the company was ahead of most other potential vaccines, including the new models meant to facilitate strong protection and fast production. Sinovac’s candidate has a good chance of entering commercial production almost as quickly as Moderna Inc.’s mRNA vaccine, or the genetically modified shot being developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc. Sinovac’s method is relatively crude, relying on a similar principle to the one Edward Jenner, the 18th century British scientist sometimes called the father of immunology, employed when he used the mild cowpox virus to perform the first-ever inoculations against smallpox. But it just might work—and it could be easier to use than the never-before-tried approaches of other companies. “We’ve got to learn about history and not forget what’s worked in the past,” “Don’t get fancy when simple will do it for you just as well.”
Another COVID Mystery: Patients Survive Ventilator, But Linger in a Coma - Leslie Cutitta said yes, twice, when clinicians from Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston called asking whether she wanted them to take — and then continue — extreme measures to keep her husband, Frank Cutitta, alive. On April 21, after 27 days on a ventilator, Frank’s lungs had recovered enough to remove the breathing tube. After the removal, it typically takes hours, maybe a day, for the patient to return to consciousness. The body needs that time to clear the drugs that keep the patient sedated and comfortable — able to tolerate intubation and mechanical ventilation. But doctors across the U.S. and in other countries have noted a troubling phenomenon associated with some COVID cases: Even after extubation, some patients remain unconscious for days, weeks or longer. There’s no official term for the problem, but it’s being called a “prolonged” or “persistent” coma or unresponsiveness. Frank Cutitta, 68, was one of those patients. He just didn’t wake up. Doctors studying the phenomenon of prolonged unresponsiveness are concerned that medical teams are not waiting long enough for these COVID-19 patients to wake up, especially when ICU beds are in high demand during the pandemic. “Because this disease is so new and because there are so many unanswered questions about COVID-19, we currently do not have reliable tools to predict how long it will take any individual patient to recover consciousness,” said Dr. Brian Edlow, a critical care neurologist at Mass General. Given all the unknowns, doctors at the hospital have had a hard time advising families of a patient who has remained unresponsive for weeks, post-ventilator. Some families in that situation have decided to remove other life supports so the patient can die. Edlow can’t say how many.“It is very difficult for us to determine whether any given patient’s future will bring a quality of life that would be acceptable to them,” Edlow said, “based on what they’ve told their families or written in a prior directive.”Theories abound about why COVID-19 patients may take longer to regain consciousness than other ventilated patients, if they wake up at all. COVID-19 patients appear to need larger doses of sedatives while on a ventilator, and they’re often intubated for longer periods than is typical for other diseases that cause pneumonia. Low oxygen levels, due to the virus’s effect on the lungs, may damage the brain. Some of these patients have inflammation related to COVID-19 that may disrupt signals in the brain, and some experience blood clots that have caused strokes. “So there are many potential contributing factors,” Edlow said. “The degree to which each of those factors is playing a role in any given patient is still something we’re trying to understand.”One of the first questions researchers hope to answer is how many COVID-19 patients end up in this prolonged, sleeplike condition after coming off the ventilator.“In our experience, approximately every fifth patient that was hospitalized was admitted to the ICU and had some degree of disorders of consciousness,” said Dr. Jan Claassen, director of neurocritical care at New York’s Columbia University Medical Center. “But how many of those actually took a long time to wake up, we don’t have numbers on that yet.”
For Many Pandemic Victims, Lingering Effects Stress Insurance Coverage – WSJ -- The new coronavirus that infected Tricia Sales in March still plagues her. The horse trainer and onetime cocktail server deals with dizziness and nausea. At times, she can’t feel her hands and feet. Her five-month struggle has meant specialists, drugs, a spinal tap, imaging scans and 15 hospital visits. The uninsured single mother said she owes more than $100,000 in medical bills but is too sick to fully work. Some of her medical bills are being sent to collection agencies. Ms. Sales is among a group of patients, the exact size of which is unknown, developing long-term medical problems from Covid-19 that require extended—and often expensive—medical care, stressing families’ financial security and taxing an already strained health system.A number of doctors and researchers are warning the fallout from people who develop long-term health effects from coronavirus could ripple through the U.S. economy, burdening public safety-net programs such as Medicaid while leaving many patients with significant medical debt.“We need to mobilize the medical community as a whole, and that’s going to cost money,” said Zijian Chen, director of Mount Sinai Health System’s Center for Post-Covid Care. “It affects patients’ ability to work, and that has major implications as well for the economy.” Covid-19, in some cases, can be lethal, killing more than 170,000 people in the U.S. so far. Other victims of the virus see no symptoms after a recovery that can take as little as a week or two. But a third category reports symptoms that linger for weeks, sometimes months, including extreme fatigue, shortness of breath, neurological issues and irregular heart rhythm. There is little comprehensive data, as of yet, on how many people have long-term health symptoms, known as long-Covid patients or long-haulers. “Longer-term complications don’t fit into a box,” said Ben Linas, an epidemiologist at Boston University School of Medicine.And yet, doctors caring for these patients say the number is substantial. About one-third of 270 nonhospitalized adults who tested positive for coronavirus said they hadn’t returned to normal health two to three weeks later, according to a survey published recently by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Eighty-seven percent of patients who had recovered from Covid-19 reported persistence of at least one symptom 60 days later, particularly fatigue and shortness of breath, according to a July 9 study by Gemelli University Hospital in Rome.
A wedding reception spread coronavirus to 53 people, killing a woman who didn't attend the event - A wedding reception in Millinocket, Maine, has been linked to 53 confirmed coronavirus cases, according to the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention.That number includes a woman who did not attend the event but died Friday; officials believe she was later infected with COVID-19 from a guest, the Portland Press Herald reported.Sixty-five people went to the August 7 reception, which was largely indoors, Maine's CDC director, Nirav Shah, said in a press conference on Thursday. Shah said the venue, Big Moose Inn, exceeded the state's limit on indoor gatherings, which is 50 people.The median age of known infected people among the outbreak is 42, but there's a wide range from 4 years old to 98, the Press Herald's report said. Most of the people reported symptoms about four days after the reception, but roughly 13% were asymptomatic, Shah said Thursday.It's not the first time a celebration has been associated with a somber if not lethal outcome. In May, a birthday party in Pasadena, California, made national headlines when it was linked to the infection of at least five people, several of whom became seriously ill. The outbreak is thought to have started with a person who attended the party without a face mask while coughing, officials said."She was joking with people at the birthday party," Lisa Derderian, a spokeswoman for Pasadena, told CNN at the time. "She said I may have COVID-19, and lo and behold, she did." In Millinocket, it's unclear whether guests wore masks. Nearly half — 23 — of the cases linked to the wedding are among people who didn't attend, according to the Press Herald. Efforts to identify those who've come into contact with infected people are still underway,Maine's CDC said.
US health care workers infected with COVID-19 pressured to return to work - Nurses, doctors and other medical workers in the US who have contracted COVID-19 are increasingly being pressured to return to their hospitals prematurely in violation of public health standards. The failure of health care facilities and employers to provide adequate paid leave—or, in many cases, any paid leave at all—has left health care staff with the cruel “choice” of risking hunger and homelessness for themselves and their families by forfeiting their paychecks or becoming transmitters of the coronavirus in their workplaces. This homicidal policy is being pursued despite the already existing widespread loss of life and disastrously high infection rates for hospital staff. Health care personnel in many states now account for as many as 20 percent of known coronavirus cases. A joint research project of Kaiser Health News and the Guardian discovered that 167 health care employees have died of COVID-19 while treating infected patients. Kaiser Health News and Guardian researchers have admitted that the actual number of health care worker deaths due to COVID-19 is likely far higher than 167. A total of 922 health care worker deaths in the course of the pandemic are now being investigated, having been identified as the likely result of coronavirus infection. Internationally, more than 2,000 health care workers across 74 countries have died from the virus, according to a recent “In Memoriam” list released by Medscape. For the most part, the grievances of health care staff over unsafe conditions have either been ignored or dismissed outright by hospital executives more concerned with cutting costs and increasing profits than protecting the lives of staff members. Dozens of complaints from hospital workers were submitted to the Occupational and Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) this past spring, many of them reporting infected employees being ordered to return to work. Included is a respiratory clinic in North Carolina where COVID-positive employees were told they would be fired if they stayed home, and a veterans hospital in Massachusetts where ill employees were returning to work because they were not receiving compensation.
August 25 COVID-19 Test Results --The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day (fewer recently). Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 634,461 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 36,679 positive tests.There have been 24,953 COVID reported deaths in the first 25 days of August. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.8% (red line). For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.
Indiana surpasses 90,000 cases - An additional 1,164 Hoosiers have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and six people have died, state officials said Thursday. That brings to 90,504 the total number of Indiana residents known to have the novel coronavirus, the Indiana State Department of Health said. A total of 3,047 Hoosiers are confirmed to have died from COVID-19, an increase of six from the previous day. An additonal 219 probable deaths have been reported based on clinical diagnoses in patients for whom no positive test is on record. Deaths are reported based on when data are received by the state health department and occurred over multiple days. In Allen County, 67 more residents have tested positive and one person has died, bringing the total to 4,823 cases and 173 deaths as of Thursday. Updates to positive cases and deaths in Allen County are found on the Allen County Department of Health's COVID-19 webpage at www.allencountyhealth.com/covid-190. The DeKalb County Health Department confirmed 11 new cases Thursday for a total of 321 cases. As of Thursday, nearly 36% of ICU beds and more than 83% of ventilators were available across the state, the state health department said. To date, 1,034,746 tests for unique individuals have been reported to the state health department, up from 1,022,537 on Wednesday.
Michigan coronavirus (COVID-19) cases up to 99,958; Death toll now at 6,440 (AP) The number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in Michigan has risen to 99,958 as of Thursday, including 6,440 deaths, state officials report.Thursday’s update represents 758 new cases and 16 additional deaths -- 15 of which were from a Vital Records review. On Wednesday, the state totals were 99,200 cases and 6,424 deaths.New cases have plateaued in the last two weeks, while deaths remain flat in Michigan. Testing has remained steady, with an average of more than 25,000 per day, with the positive rate between 3 and 4 percent. The state reported its highest one-day testing total with more than 41,000 diagnostic tests on Aug. 21.Hospitalizations have increased slightly over the last month but remain lower than in April.Michigan has reported 72,580 recoveries. The state also reports “active cases,” which were listed at 21,100 on Thursday. Michigan’s 7-day moving average for daily cases was 752 on Thursday.According to Johns Hopkins University, more than 2 million have recovered in the U.S., with more than 5.8 million cases reported across the country. More than 180,000 have died in the U.S.Worldwide, more than 24.2 million people have been confirmed infected and over 827,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University. The true numbers are certainly much higher, because of limited testing, different ways nations count the dead and deliberate under-reporting by some governments.
US Coronavirus: Nation averaging more than 900 deaths a day – CNN - New coronavirus cases are down across the US about 12% on average over the last seven days compared to the previous week, but the nation is still averaging more than 900 deaths a day. According to an analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University, cases are steadily declining in states hard-hit by Covid-19. Compared to last week, new cases are down in Arizona about 36%, California and Texas have seen a decrease of 29%, and Florida's numbers are down 26%. But new cases are rising across the Midwest, including in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas and North Dakota, each of which is experiencing its peak seven-day average for daily new cases. North Dakota claimed the mantle of the state with the highest per capita rate of new cases in the US with a seven-day average of 28.10 new cases per 100,000. Iowa and Kansas both saw record highs Wednesday for new cases reported. Also on Wednesday, the US reported 44,109 cases and 1,222 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins. The number of deaths related to the coronavirus in the US topped 180,000 on Thursday, according to the JHU data. More than 5.8 million cases have been reported. States hit hard by Covid-19 like Texas and Louisiana are dealing with another threat: Hurricane Laura made landfall overnight as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Each crisis has complicated the states' responses to the other. Ahead of the storm, some Covid-19 testing sites were closed and efforts paused, likely hampering data collection in the coming days. But the pandemic also hobbled evacuation efforts as residents were worried about seeking refuge in shelters filled with large groups of people. "We heard that early on from a lot of people, they were fearful of being put into a large shelter," Louisiana Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser told CNN Thursday morning. So instead, people were sheltered in hotels, Nungesser said, where they could remain safely isolated away from other families. "I think that was a wise move at FEMA to support those moves to hotels instead of large shelters," Nungesser said. "It helped a lot of people make the decision to get out."
CDC Covid-19 Fatality Count and Excess Deaths - Menzie Chinn - CDC has released data through 15 August as of today. Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by The Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic (dark red), all on log scale. Source: CDC accessed 8/26/2020 vintage, Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic accessed 8/26/2020 and author’s calculations.From week ending February 29th through the week ending August 8th (the latest CDC data, which incorporates severe undercounting in the last three weeks), the cumulative CDC fatality tally is 165.6 thousand. Cumulative excess fatalities is 223.4 thousand, implying an additional 57.8 thousand Covid-19 fatalities above the official tally over this period.NEC Chair Larry Kudlow stated yesterday:“It was awful … Health and economic impacts were tragic. Hardship and heartbreak were everywhere. But presidential leadership came swiftly and effectively with an extraordinary rescue for health and safety to successfully fight the Covid virus.” The Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic reported 1249 fatalities today (8/26, as of 8/26).
Hong Kong Reports First Confirmed Coronavirus Re-Infection - A man caught the coronavirus after recovering from an initial bout in April in what scientists said was the first case showing that reinfection may occur within a few months. The 33-year-old’s second SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected via airport screening on his return to Hong Kong from Europe this month. Researchers at the University of Hong Kong used genomic sequence analysis to prove that he was infected by two different strains. The information technology worker didn’t develop any symptoms from his second infection, which might indicate “subsequent infections may be milder,” the researchers said. “Our findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may persist in humans,” Kwok-Yung Yuen and colleagues said Monday in a paper accepted for publication in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases. The findings also suggest SARS-CoV-2 is reminiscent of the coronaviruses that cause the common cold, and may continue to circulate “even if patients have acquired immunity via natural infection or via vaccination,” they said.While some patients have tested positive for the virus over many weeks, even after their symptoms have resolved, scientists haven’t fully understood whether these cases reflect lingering traces of the virus, a re-eruption of an infection, or a new infection. This is “the world’s first documentation of a patient who recovered from Covid-19, but got another episode of Covid-19 afterwards,” the researchers said in an emailed statement. It may be difficult to find Covid-19 survivors who have been reinfected with SARS-CoV-2 if they don’t show symptoms, said Corey Smith, head of translational and human immunology at the QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute in Brisbane. “Because he showed no symptoms on the second infection, it is likely that, although the virus has managed to establish infection, his memory immune response has likely prevented any symptomatic disease,” Smith said in an email. “This does suggest that natural infection may provide protection against disease, but not reinfection.” Still Infectious?
Dutch, Belgian patients ‘reinfected with coronavirus’ - A patient in the Netherlands and another in Belgium have been confirmed as having been reinfected with the coronavirus, Dutch national broadcaster NOS reported this morning, citing virologists. The news follows a report this week by researchers in Hong Kong about a man there who had been reinfected four-and-a-half months after being declared recovered. The NOS cited virologist Marion Koopmans as saying the Dutch patient was an older person with a weakened immune system. She said that cases where people have been sick with the virus a long time and it then flares up are better known. But a true reinfection, as in the Dutch, Belgian and Hong Kong cases, requires genetic testing of the virus in both the first and second infection to see whether the two instances of the virus differ slightly. Ms Koopmans, an adviser to the Dutch government, said reinfections had been expected. "That someone would pop up with a re-infection, it doesn't make me nervous," she said. "We have to see whether it happens often." The Belgian patient had mild symptoms, the NOS cited virologist Marc Van Ranst as saying. But "it's not good news," he added. He said it is not clear whether such cases are rare or whether there are "many more people who could have are-infection after six or seven months".
Two European patients re-infected with coronavirus - (Reuters) - Two European patients are confirmed to have been re-infected with the coronavirus, raising concerns about people’s immunity to the virus as the world struggles to tame the pandemic. The cases, in Belgium and the Netherlands, follow a report this week by researchers in Hong Kong about a man there who had been re-infected with a different strain of the virus four and a half months after being declared recovered - the first such re-infection to be documented. That has fuelled fears about the effectiveness of potential vaccines against the virus, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people, though experts say there would need to be many more cases of re-infection for these to be justified. Belgian virologist Marc Van Ranst said the Belgian case was a woman who had contracted COVID-19 for the first time in March and then again in June. Further cases of re-infection were likely to surface, he said. “We don’t know if there will be a large number. I think probably not, but we will have to see,” he told Reuters, noting that COVID-19 had only been in humans for less than a year. “Perhaps a vaccine will need to be repeated every year, or within two or three years. It seems clear though that we won’t have something that works for, say, 10 years,” he said.
Germany’s New Coronavirus Infections Close to Four-Month High Germany’s new coronavirus cases increased at a pace close to Saturday’s four-month high, while the infection rate fell below a key benchmark of 1.0. There were 1,628 new infections in the 24 hours through Tuesday morning, taking the total to 236,122. The daily gain compared with 633 on Monday and 1,737 on Saturday, which was the most since late April. There was one fatality, lifting the overall number of deaths to 9,276. German cases have ticked up in recent weeks, mirroring a trend across Europe, with health officials blaming the increase on social gatherings and travelers returning from abroad. Bavarian Premier Markus Soeder warned Tuesday that Germany risks a return to the peak levels of daily new cases close to 7,000 seen at the end of March and beginning of April. He ruled out easing restrictions on movement and social gatherings. “The numbers are worrying and it’s clear that the situation isn’t going to get easier,” Soeder said in a video message posted on Twitter. “Right now it’s not about loosening the reins but tightening them. There is no reason to panic but there is to be greatly concerned.” Chancellor Angela Merkel will hold talks with Soeder and his regional counterparts on Thursday to discuss Germany’s strategy to contain the virus. On Monday, federal and regional health officials said they plan to scrap a requirement for people returning to Germany from high-risk areas to be tested for the coronavirus as capacity is stretched. Travelers will still be subject to a two-week quarantine, which can be ended after five days if a test result shows they don’t have the virus. The changes will likely take effect in mid-September or early October. Germany’s reproduction factor -- the average number of people infected by one person with the virus -- fell to 0.98 on Monday from 1.08 the day before, according to the latest estimate from the Robert Koch Institute.
French naturist camp hit by ‘very worrying’ Covid outbreak French regional health authorities on Sunday said there had been a “very worrying” outbreak of coronavirus at a naturist holiday resort on France’s Mediterranean coast, with some 100 holidaymakers so far testing positive. The Cap d’Agde resort in the Herault region, hugely popular among naturists, saw 38 positive tests on Monday and another 57 on Wednesday, the regional health authority said. The rate of infection was four times higher among naturists in the resort than in the village itself, it added. Another 50 holidaymakers had also tested positive after returning home and results of more tests were expected next week. The figures are “very worrying” it said, adding an alert had been issued over the resort. The outbreak comes as France on Sunday reported almost 4,900 new coronavirus cases over 24 hours, its highest figure since May, as the health minister, Olivier Veran, acknowledged there were “risks” in the surging infection levels nationwide. Testing has been ramped up to 700,000 tests a week, Veran added. He emphasised however that the situation was “not the same as it was in February” when the virus began spreading in France. Currently, Covid-19 is circulating four times as much among under 40s as the over 65s. Veran insisted a new nationwide lockdown was “not on the agenda” and unlike in the spring “we have more knowledge and means at our disposal” with targeted local measures the best action to take. France has more than 280,000 confirmed coronavirus infections, and 30,518 deaths, the third-highest toll in Europe after the UK and Italy.
Coronavirus reproduction rate rises above 1 in UK, as infection cases surge - Coronavirus in Britain is spreading exponentially due to the reckless, homicidal reopening of the economy and schools by the Johnson government. The R or R0 value (Reproduction rate) of COVID-19 is now at 1 or above nationally, meaning that every one person infected is infecting at least one other person. Last Friday, the government’s scientific advisory group (SAGE) announced that R had risen to between 0.9 and 1.1 in the UK as a whole for the first time since weekly reporting of data began in May. This was an increase on an estimated range of 0.8-1.0 last week and a rate of 0.8-0.9 documented by SAGE two weeks ago. Because the information used to calculate the R and growth rate includes epidemiological data such as hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths, SAGE’s estimates reflect the situation as it was up to three weeks ago. Subsequent changes in transmission levels—set to rocket with millions of children being sent back to school, along with hundreds of thousands of teachers and other education staff—are not yet fully reflected in the estimates. Of the UK’s most populated area, SAGE announced it “does not have confidence that R is currently below 1 in England.” In London, SAGE calculates the R rate at 0.9-1.1. The rate is even higher in some parts of the UK, with Northern Ireland’s (population over 1.8 million) estimated to be as high as 1.6. Between July 4 and August 15, virtually all remaining lockdown measures were ended nationally.
Advisor To British Government Warns Coronavirus "Might Be With Us Forever" - A British academic and advisor to HMG warned Saturday during an interview that the coronavirus might be with us "forever" even if a vaccine is quickly developed. "This is not going to be a disease like Smallpox, which could be eradicated by vaccination. This is a virus that is going to be with us forever in some form or another," said Professor Mark Walport.Pressed on whether he agrees with projections from WHO Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who said Friday that he hoped the pandemic would be over in under two years, but that the possibility of a more sustained outbreak is something that can't yet be readily dismissed, Walport claimed that tackling the virus will depend on a successful vaccine, but that mass production of a workable vaccine won't be the last step toward fighting the virus."I am reasonably optimistic that it will be possible to make such a vaccine - there are a large number in development, including two that are in advanced stages from the UK," Walport said.However, even once a vaccine is in hand, Walport said caution might still be needed since it's unclear whether a vaccine will offer lasting protection."[It] almost certainly will require repeated vaccinations so, a bit like flu, people will need re-vaccination at regular intervals," he said.The government adviser also cautioned that the percentage of new cases in the UK is rising in some parts of the country (though, to be sure, partial lockdowns and other measures have been implemented to blunt these outbreaks).
Victims of herd immunity: further evidence that UK care home residents were denied medical treatment - A report, “The Experience of Care Home Staff During Covid-19,” published Monday by the Queen’s Nursing Institute, reveals that during the peak of the pandemic in the UK, the elderly and disabled were in many cases denied medical treatment. Founded in 1887 to organise the supply and training of District Nurses, the Queen’s Nursing Institute (QNI) is the UK’s oldest charity. Alongside QNI Scotland, its mission is to improve the nursing care of people in the community. In May and June, given grave concerns about the impact of the pandemic on nursing and residential homes, the institute launched a survey of the QNI’s Nurses’ network. Those surveyed included 114 registered nurses and 46 managers. Most respondents cared for the elderly, while a third worked with residents of mixed ages and needs. The report reveals that hospitals were instructed by the authorities to empty wards of geriatric patients, who were then sent untested for COVID-19 into care homes. Simultaneously, care homes were told there was a blanket ban on hospital admissions. National Health Service (NHS) managers instructed care homes that residents who became sick were to be covered with DNAR (do not attempt to resuscitate) orders. Asked if this policy changed during the period sampled, 16 respondents (1 in 10 in the survey) reported the QNI had “serious ethical and professional concerns.” For example, one respondent said, “GPs, Clinical Commissioning Groups and hospital trusts [were] making resuscitation decisions without first speaking to residents, families and care home staff or trying to enact ‘blanket’ ‘do not resuscitate’ decisions for whole groups of people.” Such a practice, amounting to involuntary euthanasia, which is illegal, was in many instances ignored by staff.
Thousands Of Swedes Receive False-Positive COVID-19 Results Due To Faulty Test Kits From China - Approximately 3,700 Swedes received false-positive COVID-19 tests due to a faulty testing kit from China, according to the Reuters, citing a Tuesday statement by Sweden's Public Health Agency - which said that the kit was unable to distinguish between a very low level of the virus and a negative result. "The supplier must adjust the performance that is required for this test to be used," said the agency's head microbiologist, Karin Tegmark Wiselll, who added that the test kit has been widely exported to other countries. BGI Genomics, two of whose subsidiaries are on a U.S. economic blacklist of companies implicated in human rights violations regarding China's treatment of Uighurs, could not immediately be reached for comment. It received emergency use authorization from U.S. authorities for its coronavirus testing kits in March and got an Emergency Use Listing from the World Health Organization in May. -ReutersThe agency was unable to say how many tests had been done using the kit, but that the 3,700 false positives were a 'minority of cases,' and occurred when the virus is at very low levels. The Chinese test kits had only a marginal effect on Sweden's COVID-19 statistics according to the report.Sweden has had 86,891 confirmed infections and 5,814 deaths from the virus, according to the agency. Of note, deaths, infections and ICU admissions have been falling in recent weeks as the government explores easing their already-lax coronavirus restrictions, such as large public gatherings over 50 people and sporting events.
Starbucks Cafe’s Covid Outbreak Spared Employees Who Wore Masks - After a woman with the coronavirus visited a Starbucks cafe north of Seoul this month, more than two dozen patrons tested positive days later. But the four face mask-wearing employees escaped infection. The Aug. 8 outbreak in the South Korean city of Paju is another example of how rapidly the SARS-CoV-2 virus can spread in confined, indoor spaces -- as well as ways to minimize transmission. With health authorities around the world still debating the evidence around face masks, the 27-person cluster linked to the air-conditioned coffee outlet adds more support for their mandatory use to help limit the spread of the Covid-19-causing virus. “This speaks volumes about the role masks can play,” said Ma Sang Hyuk, a pediatric infectious diseases physician at Changwon Fatima Hospital in South Korea. “Masks may not provide 100% protection, but there’s nothing out there that’s as effective.” Guidance on face masks is being issued from Australia to Venezuela to help stem the pandemic, which has infected more than 23 million people and killed at least 810,000 worldwide. Face coverings will become mandatory in New Zealand for residents using public transport and inside ride-sharing vehicles, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Monday. Last week, the World Health Organization issued advice on their use in children. But resistance to mask-wearing remains in some countries like the U.S., where some people object to being compelled to wear masks when entering shops or restaurants. Misinformation over their effectiveness and safety has also spread. Officials assume that most patrons didn’t consistently wear masks as they were drinking and eating while in the Starbucks Corp. outlet in South Korea, according to Gang Young-do, a spokesperson for the Paju government. A ceiling-mounted air-conditioning was helping to cool the second-floor outlet, he said. “The virus may spread where people can’t wear masks while eating or drinking tea, as witnessed at the Starbucks in Paju,” The Starbucks case is one of “the most important opportunities to study risk factors among a more or less controlled cohort of people,” The Starbucks infections later led to about three dozen more cases outside the coffee shop as of Aug. 24. They add to the more than 3,000 this month that have prompted the South Korean government to consider imposing the highest level of physical distancing rules -- a blow to an economy that’s managed to avert a steep recession so far.
India emerges as a global epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic India is emerging as a global epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, with the virus spreading rapidly throughout the country, including to rural areas where public health facilities are largely nonexistent. Home to the world’s largest number of desperately poor people, the South Asian country now leads the world in terms of daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases, with new cases exceeding 60,000 on virtually every day for the past two-and-a-half weeks. India is on pace to soon surpass Brazil as the country with the world’s second largest total tally of COVID-19 infections. Since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party government began “reopening the economy” at the end of April, the country’s COVID-19 caseload has gone up exponentially, with cases increasing more than a hundredfold. On May 1, India had just over 25,000 cases and 1,150 deaths. As of Tuesday, according to extremely conservative official figures, total infections rose to 3,170,942 with 58,570 fatalities. A record number of daily infections was registered on Saturday, with 70,488 cases. Underscoring that the spread of the virus continues to accelerate, the past seven days have witnessed the fastest weekly increase in new infections and fatalities since the start of the pandemic, with nearly half a million new infections and 6,666 people losing their lives. The latest one million infections have been registered in just 16 days. Responsibility for this health and social disaster lies squarely with the entire Indian ruling class, which has pursued policies from the outset aimed at defending the wealth and business interests of the superrich, while leaving the vast majority of impoverished workers and toilers to fend for themselves.
COVID-19 Update: Over 24 Million Global Cases; CDC Changes Guidelines on Asymptomatic Testing; and More - On Wednesday, August 26, there over now 24 million confirmed infections of the novel SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 around the world, and over 819,000 deaths, according to statisticsWorldometer. Outside of the US, the nations with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19 are:
- Brazil: 3,674,176 confirmed cases; 116,666 deaths.
- India: 3,280,962 confirmed cases; 60,163 deaths.
- Russia: 970,865 confirmed cases; 16,683 deaths.
- South Africa: 613,017 confirmed cases; 13,308 deaths.
- Peru: 607,382 confirmed cases; 28,001 deaths.
Moderna Inc. plans to supply 80 million doses of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine to the European Union (EU). The biotech company finished talks with the European Commission for an agreement, which includes an option for EU states to purchase an additional 80 million doses, according to a statement, as published by Bloomberg News. Today the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) changed its COVID-19 testing guidelines to say some people without symptoms may not need to undergo testing, even if they’ve been exposed to somebody with the novel coronavirus. Previously, the CDC had recommended testing for people with recent or suspected exposure to the virus.
India reports world's highest daily rise in virus cases - India recorded the world’s highest single-day spike in coronavirus cases, with 67,151 new infections, the country’s Health Ministry data revealed on Wednesday. The fresh cases have taken the national tally past the 3.23 million mark. The death toll in the country rose to 59,439, as 1,059 new fatalities were reported over the past 24 hours. More than 2.46 million patients have recovered from the virus, pushing the recovery rate to 76.29%. The total number of active coronavirus cases in the country reached 707,267. According to the Health Ministry, a total of 925,383 tests were conducted in the country over the past day, bringing the tally to nearly 37 million. “Early identification through testing, prompt and effective treatment through supervised home isolation and quality medical care, and innovative graded policy measures have resulted in almost 100% increase in recovered cases in the last 21 days,” the Health Ministry said in a Tweet. Five most affected states in terms of number of cases are Maharashtra (703,823), Tamil Nadu (391,303), Andhra Pradesh (371,639), Karnataka (291,826), and Uttar Pradesh (197,000). On Tuesday, the Indian Health Minister Dr. Harsh Vardhan said that eye-banking guidelines advised temporary suspension of donor cornea retrieval and elective corneal transplantation surgeries when active COVID-19 lockdown measures were being implemented.
France Reports Post-Lockdown COVID-19 Record As Cases Spike Across Europe: Live Updates - The focus has shifted back to Europe, after Spain, Italy and - most importantly - France reported alarming numbers on Friday.France reported a new post-lockdown record of 7,379 new confirmed coronavirus cases, following the 6,111 record reported on Thursday, and just shy of the 7,578 high set on March 31, which was during the peak of the country's outbreak.France's total number of confirmed cases rose to 267,077, while the cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19 rose by 20 to 30,596, the health ministry reported.Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron said his government was doing everything possible to avoid another nationwide lockdown. But ruling one out would be "dangerous"."We're doing everything to avoid another lockdown and in particular a nationwide lockdown," Macron said. "We've learned enough to know that nothing can be ruled out. But we're doing everything to prevent it."Spain has diagnosed 3,829 new coronavirus cases in the past day, which was down from a revised count of more than 6,000 the prior day, but still uncomfortably high. Meanwhile. Spanish police said they had arrested a man, who apparently believed the pandemic was a hoax, for spreading hatred and inciting violence. He reportedly urged his followers to attack politicians over "the COVID farce".Meanwhile, in the US, Florida reported its biggest increase in coronavirus cases in nearly a week, while deaths climbed by fewer than 100 for the first time in 4 days. California is set to become the first US state to confirm 700,000 cases of coronavirus since the start of the pandemic, as new infections ticked back above 5,000 on Friday. Cases rose by 5,329 from a 4,430 increase on Thursday that marked the smallest one-day jump since June 22. That compares with an increase of 5,585 last Friday. That took the total number of confirmed cases in the most populous US state to 688,858. California has averaged about 5,500 new infections a day over the past week,
Violators Of New Zealand's New Mask Law Face Up To $700 Fine - During the same week Germany's Merkel announced that across all but one German states a mandatory mask law will be backed by a 50 euro fine for any violators, New Zealand has announced its own nationwide mask mandate aboard all public transit amid a feared resurgence of COVID-19 cases, with a possible penalty for refusal of up to $1000 (NZD).The small Pacific nation was previously celebrated as the first in the world to completely eradicate the virus after previously witnessing rapid community transmission..By the early part of August the Wellington government announced "we had beaten it" as new cases stopped being reported, and following the strict lockdown measures of months prior which had also involved shutting down the border for the island-nation.Clusters of dozens of new cases began recently popping up again, however, after which the government ordered some 500 troops to border quarantine facilities to prevent the infected from breaching isolation order. Many blamed foreign travel.Reuters summarizes that the "The Pacific nation of 5 million people had seemed to stop community transmission of COVID-19 due to tough lockdown measures but reintroduced restrictions in its largest city, Auckland, this month following a fresh outbreak.""With restrictions to scale back on Sunday, Ardern said in a Facebook post she was taking matters into her own hands before masks become compulsory on public transport across the country the following day," the report continues. The new mask mandate if effect this week applies to all buses, taxis, trains, fairies and planes. New Zealand media confirms that "From Monday, not wearing a mask on public transport will be punishable by a fine of up to $1,000 imposed by the courts, or a $300 infringement notice." In New Zealand Dollars (NZD) this works out to a little under $700.
New reckoning for WHO vaccine plan as governments go it alone - (Reuters) - The World Health Organization will next week receive a raft of pledges of support for its plan for COVID-19 vaccines for all. But the agency has already had to scale back its ambition. The United States, Japan, Britain and the European Union have struck their own deals to secure millions of COVID-19 vaccine doses for their citizens, ignoring the U.N. body’s warnings that “vaccine nationalism” will squeeze supplies. If other countries that can afford it pursue a similar approach, the WHO’s strategy for fighting the coronavirus pandemic globally and equitably risks coming undone, experts warn. “If that were to happen, it’s fairly clear that there would be insufficient volumes of vaccine available for any other countries, particularly in the first six to nine months,” said Alex Harris, head of global policy at the Wellcome Trust health charity. Countries wishing to be part of the WHO initiative, dubbed COVAX, must submit expressions of interest by Monday. More than 170 countries, including Canada, Norway, South Korea and Britain, have submitted non-binding expressions of interest to participate in the scheme, which the WHO has touted as the only global initiative to ensure COVID-19 vaccines are available worldwide to rich and poor countries alike. It has signed up nine COVID-19 vaccine candidates and set out plans to obtain and deliver 2 billion doses by the end of 2021 across countries that sign up. But it has struggled to get wealthier countries on board in full beyond pledges of funding and warm words about donating surplus vaccines. Last week, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus criticised nations that hoard vaccines, warning the strategy will worsen the pandemic. In a last-ditch call for support ahead of Monday’s deadline, he wrote letters to members urging their participation. The EU Commission is “fully committed” to the success of COVAX while it enters into parallel talks with vaccine manufacturers for supplies for the bloc, a spokeswoman told Reuters. Britain said it was supporting COVAX to ensure equal access to vaccines, including funding, while doing its own bilateral supply deals.
Thousands allowed to bypass environmental rules in pandemic – Thousands of oil and gas operations, government facilities and other sites won permission to stop monitoring for hazardous emissions or otherwise bypass rules intended to protect health and the environment because of the coronavirus outbreak, The Associated Press has found. The result: approval for less environmental monitoring at some Texas refineries and at an army depot dismantling warheads armed with nerve gas in Kentucky, manure piling up and the mass disposal of livestock carcasses at farms in Iowa and Minnesota, and other risks to communities as governments eased enforcement over smokestacks, medical waste shipments, sewage plants, oilfields and chemical plants. The Trump administration paved the way for the reduced monitoring on March 26 after being pressured by the oil and gas industry, which said lockdowns and social distancing during the pandemic made it difficult to comply with anti-pollution rules. States are responsible for much of the oversight of federal environmental laws, and many followed with leniency policies of their own. AP’s two-month review found that waivers were granted in more than 3,000 cases, representing the overwhelming majority of requests citing the outbreak. Hundreds of requests were approved for oil and gas companies. AP reached out to all 50 states citing open-records laws; all but one, New York, provided at least partial information, reporting the data in differing ways and with varying level of detail. Almost all those requesting waivers told regulators they did so to minimize risks for workers and the public during a pandemic — although a handful reported they were trying to cut costs. The Environmental Protection Agency says the waivers do not authorize recipients to exceed pollution limits. But environmentalists and public health experts say it may be impossible to fully determine the impact of the country’s first extended, national environmental enforcement clemency because monitoring oversight was relaxed. “The harm from this policy is already done,” said Cynthia Giles, EPA’s former assistant administrator under the Obama administration.
Legionnaire's Bacteria Found in Drinking Water at Nine Reopened Schools - In addition to taking precautions against the novel coronavirus, schools across the country find themselves needing to worry about a new scourge: legionella bacteria in their drinking water, according to The New York Times. Recently, nine schools in Ohio and Pennsylvania found the harmful bacteria in their water. In Fox Chapel, PA, a suburb of Pittsburgh, four out of the town's six schools tested positive for the bacteria. Because the schools were unused for so long, nearly six months, the water just sat in the pipes and did not have a chance to move. That created a condition for the bacteria to thrive, according to WPXI News in Pittsburgh. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, people get sick when they inhale mist that has the bacteria or they ingest water with the bacteria in it. It can cause severe pneumonia or lung infection, which is worrying when the nation is already grappling with COVID-19, an infectious disease that leads to severe pneumonia. Similarly, schools outside of Dayton, Ohio found the bacteria in their water last week. In all of those cases, the outbreak was noticed in locations that were far from classrooms or drinking fountains, such as one faucet in a seldom used bathroom, according to Dayton Daily News. "We would have capability to wash hands, we would provide drinking water, we have toilets that are working, and we have the ability to serve lunch," said superintendent Rob O'Leary, defending the district's decision to proceed with in-person instruction and to keep the schools open, as Dayton 24/7 reported. O'Leary added that the school district ran disinfectant through all the school's water lines and cleaned the aerators on all of its faucets. The Milton-Union school district, also in Ohio, received a federal grant to test its water over the summer. It found the bacteria in a drinking fountain and in two faucets on only the cold-water side, according to WHIO News in Ohio. "Ice machines we tested it all," said Tim Swartztrauber, West Milton Water Supervisor and Chief Inspector to WHIO. "Luckily we did because we did find legionella. We tested every drinking fountain and we got it in a drinking fountain. Without that this probably would have been missed." Swartztrauber added that they ran chlorine through the system to disinfect it and then flushed out the chlorine to make the water safe again.
Long-term exposure to air pollution linked to impaired breathing in children -Babies exposed to levels of air pollution within EU standards develop poorer lung function as children and teenagers, according to research presented at the European Respiratory Society International Congress. [1] The study also suggests that some of the risk from exposure to pollution can be reduced if babies are breastfed for at least 12 weeks. A second study presented at the Congress [2] shows that adults who are exposed to air pollution, even at low levels, over a period of decades are more likely to develop asthma. "Babies' lungs are especially vulnerable because they are growing and developing, so we wanted to see if there are longer-term impacts for babies who are exposed to air pollution as they grow up." The children had tests to measure their breathing at the ages of six, ten or 15 years. Researchers compared these measures with estimates of the levels of pollution in the areas where the children lived in the first year of life, taking account of other factors that are linked to poorer lung function, such as whether the children's mothers smoked.They found that the higher the levels of air pollution babies were exposed to, the worse their lung function was as they grew into children and teenagers. They saw an even bigger impact on lung function in children who developed asthma. The results also suggested some of the damage linked to air pollution was reduced in babies who were breastfed. "Our results suggest that babies who grow up breathing polluted air, even at levels below EU regulations, have poorer breathing as they grow into children and adults. This is worrying because previous research suggests that damage to lungs in the first year of life can affect respiratory health throughout life."The second study included 23,000 Danish nurses who were recruited to the study in either 1993 or 1999.They found that while noise pollution was not linked to rates of asthma, there was a link between long-term exposure to air pollution and the likelihood of being diagnosed with asthma. There was a 29% rise in asthma risk for each increase in PM2.5 of 6.3 micrograms per cubic metre. And there was a 16% rise in asthma risk for each increase of NO2 of 8.2 micrograms per cubic metre. The levels of air pollution that the nurses were exposed to was relatively low compared to many European cities, averaging around 18.9 micrograms per cubic metre for PM2.5 and 12.8 micrograms per cubic metre for NO2. The current European standards for PM2.5 and NO2 are 25 and 40 micrograms per cubic metre, respectively.
Children in Greener Urban Neighborhoods Have Higher IQs, Study Finds - One of the best things you can do for your child's well-being may be to raise them somewhere green.The latest study to examine the positive impacts of nature on children found that children living in greener urban areas had higher IQs than children living in less green areas. "There is more and more evidence that green surroundings are associated with our cognitive function, such as memory skills and attention," study coauthor and Hasselt University in Belgium environmental epidemiology professor Tim Nawrot told The Guardian. "What this study adds with IQ is a harder, well-established clinical measure. I think city builders or urban planners should prioritize investment in green spaces because it is really of value to create an optimal environment for children to develop their full potential." The research, published in PLOS Medicine on August 18, looked at 620 children between seven and 15 years old living in urban, suburban and rural parts of Belgium. It used satellite imagery to calculate the amount of green space a child had access to, and then compared this with their scores on intelligence and behavioral assessments, The Guardian explained. Children living in urban areas with three percent more greenery scored an average of 2.6 points higher in IQ. They also scored two points lower in a metric of behavioral problems, like aggression and poor attention span. The researchers did not find any benefit to additional greenery in suburban and rural environments, perhaps because these areas already had enough baseline greenery to make a difference. The research builds on other studies that show time in nature benefits children's behavior and mental health. An Aarhus University study published in February 2019 found that children who grew up with access to green space were 55 percent less likely to develop serious mental disorders later in life. A 2015 study based in Barcelona found that access to green space improved children's cognitive development.
Wasps Attack German School, Injuring 16 Kids - Emergency services were called to a school in western Germany after multiple students complained of wasp stings. The students were taken to nearby hospitals for treatment.A wasp attack at a school in the western German city of Lüdenscheid sent at least 16 students to the hospital.Emergency services were contacted by the Adolf Reichwein secondary school at 10:45 local time (08:45 UTC) after several students complained of wasp stings during recess. A fire department spokesman told DW that all the students were between the ages of 12 and 15.Ambulances took 13 of the students to nearby hospitals. Eleven of them received emergency treatment at the Lüdenscheid clinic, the hospital confirmed in a statement, asking parents not to come to the hospital.A hospital spokeswoman told the local news website come-on.de most were being treated for minor injuries, while one remained under observation due to a known wasp allergy. The students would also need to undergo a COVID-19 test at the hospital.Why the wasps attacked remains unclear. The playground was closed off after the incident so that an exterminator could remove a nest. The school, which has around 1,200 students, said it sent all of them home at 13:00 local time.Lüdenscheid, with a population around 75,000, is located around an hour's drive northeast of Cologne. Wasps are protected in Germany under the Federal Nature Conservation Act, and deliberately disturbing, capturing, injuring or killing them without reasonable cause can carry fines between €5,000 and €50,000.
Bread prices to rise after extreme weather causes UK's worst wheat harvest in 40 years - The UK's worst wheat harvest in 40 years is set to cause a price hike in flour and bread, the agricultural industry warned. Due to last autumn's heavy rains, only 40 percent of the usual amount of wheat crop was planted, while this year's wild weather also affected crops that are being harvested. "We're looking at a 30 percent reduction in our good fields, in some of our poor fields it's even more," said Matt Culley, a farmer from Hampshire and chairperson of the National Farmers' Union (NFU). The federation said only 40 percent of the usual amount of wheat crop was planted last October due to heavy downpours. Severe weather continued to hit the agricultural sector this year as droughts earlier in the season affected the quality of crops being harvested now. The dry spells were followed by lots of August rains, resulting in poor quality harvests. Cirencester farmer Ed Horton said his crops usually yield around 2 500 tonnes of wheat, but this year, his crops are down to 580 tonnes. "It has a huge knock-on effect on our finances," he told Sky News. "We've produced a third of what we usually would, therefore there's a large hole in our cash flow and we've had to replace wheat with other crops that we don't make as much money out of." "For the food chain, there's a lack of domestically produced quality wheat so we may end up having to import wheat from other parts of the world."Some farmers have already started charging 10 percent more for flour, and it is also feared that a no-deal Brexit may cause prices to further rise. "In the event of a no-deal Brexit, millers could face a 79 pound-per-tonne tariff on wheat imports from the EU as the UK would be reverting to WTO rules." The UK Met Office told BBC News that the extremes of wet and dry conditions this year may soon become more common due to climate change.
Over 60 million chickens in England and Wales rejected over disease and defects - More than 61 million chickens were rejected because of diseases and defects at slaughterhouses in England and Wales over a three-year period, according to figures analysed by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism and the Guardian.Broilers, chickens raised for meat, were the worst affected with almost 59 million defects recorded. More than 39 million broilers arrived and were rejected at slaughter due to disease – approximately 35,000 every day.The inspection findings, compiled from Food Standards Agency (FSA) data, resulted in either part of a bird or a whole bird being condemned and rejected for human consumption.New data shows that between July 2016 and June 2019, 61,008,212 defects in chickens were identified by inspection staff at various points in the meat production process after arrival at slaughter. This figure includes spent laying hens as well as hens and cockerels used for breeding, which may be sold as meat. There were a further 1.7 million diseases and 2.5 million full condemnations in Scotland during a three-year period between 2016 and the end of 2018. The new figures come after data released last month revealed that thousands of birds were also dying or being culled on-farm due to disease or injury. An average on-farm mortality rate of around 4% was reported on chicken farms. In a flock of 10,000 birds, that means around 400 birds dying or being culled.
More than 100 000 livestock animals perish as intense snowstorms hit Patagonia, 70 percent of flock at risk – w/ videos - Intense snowstorms and frosts hit Patagonia amid one of the region's worst winters in two decades, which has badly affected the agricultural sector. More than 100 000 livestock animals have perished, according to officials' first estimate of losses, who also warned that herdsmen in the highlands may lose up to 70 percent of the flock. In early August, an agricultural disaster emergency was declared for the affected territories.Officials conducted the first assessment of losses together with technicians from the Agriculture Technology Institute, covering highlands next to the cordillera. "Anyhow, we are talking of at least 100 000 sheep and 5 000 cattle," said provincial livestock secretariat Tabare Bassi this week.Bassi further warned that the severe weather could cause the death of 70 percent of the flock in the high areas of the Patagonian Argentina's Rio Negro Province.Intense snowfall followed by frosts affected mostly small farmers with flocks no larger than 250 heads, "which makes it a serious survival challenge," he said. "We estimate that the worse losses are along the mountainous terrain between 1 000 and 1 300 m (3 280 to 4 260 feet) above sea level, while at sea level we can expect sheep mortality in the range of 30 percent." While snow in the lower lands will help renew pastures during spring, Bassi pointed out that the main concern is the small farmers in the highlands who make money out of wool and survive winter feeding on mutton. "We will have to give them some sort of support." Rio Negro senator Alberto Weretilneck proposed an initiative requesting extensive economic aid for the affected farmers, "which is one of the conditions considered in the Sheep Farming Recovery Fund," when there is an agriculture emergency as a result of severe weather conditions. Patagonia has been gripped by one of its worst winters in the last 20 years, with Rio Negro among the worst affected provinces.
Kesongo mud volcano erupts, leaving 4 people poisoned and 19 buffaloes missing, Indonesia - Kesongo mud volcano in Central Java, Indonesia erupted at around 05:00 LT on August 27, 2020, leaving 4 people poisoned and 19 buffaloes missing. The last eruption of this mud volcano took place 3 years ago. Blora BPBD Rapid Reaction Team Coordinator, Agung Tri, said mudflow eruptions occurred several times over a period of about 10 minutes. According to local media reports, villagers reported mud rising dozens of meters into the air and strong sulfur smell. At the time of the incident, four men were herding buffaloes quite close to the explosion site. They reportedly felt weak after inhaling the fumes and were taken to hospital. While the villagers are now in good condition, 19 of their buffaloes are still missing. Some of them reportedly got stuck in the mud but managed to get out with the help of villagers. (includes several videos)
Asteroid Could Strike Earth Before Election Day But Won’t Cause Major Damage, NASA Says - The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) predicts that an asteroid with a 0.41 percent chance of hitting Earth will pass by our planet Nov. 2, the day before U.S. election day, The Independent reported.But you shouldn't worry about the asteroid doing any real damage, NASA was quick to point out."Asteroid 2018VP1 is very small, approx. 6.5 feet, and poses no threat to Earth!" NASA Asteroid Watch tweeted Sunday. "It currently has a 0.41% chance of entering our planet's atmosphere, but if it did, it would disintegrate due to its extremely small size." 2018VP1 was first discovered in November 2018 from the Palomar Observatory in San Diego County, WGME reported. At the time, it was 450,000 kilometers (280,000 miles) away from Earth, ScienceAlert explained. But it follows a two-year orbital cycle and is currently headed back in our direction.It is expected to pass within 4,994.76 kilometers (approximately 3,104 miles) of Earth, which is close for a celestial object, and the reason it has a one in 240 chance of hitting us. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), from Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said there were three potential impacts, according to The Independent.But, "based on 21 observations spanning 12.968 days," it did not think a direct hit was likely. Further, its small size means it would burn up if it entered the atmosphere. To be considered dangerous, an asteroid must be at least 460 feet, according to ScienceAlert. The asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs was six miles across when it struck.
We Can Solve Water Scarcity in the U.S., New Study Says -The U.S., like much of the world, has the compounding problem of a growing population and an increased likelihood of drought due to the climate crisis. In fact, the Southwest is already in the throes of its worst drought in 1,200 years while Colorado and California are seeing how drought has turned their forests into tinder boxes. Now, a new study has identified ways to revamp how water is utilized to thrive in a time of water scarcity.The study, titled "Reducing water scarcity by improving water productivity in the United States" was published Tuesday in Environmental Research Letters. The authors say that some of the most water-stressed areas in the West and Southwest have the greatest potential for water savings. The paper attributes nearly half the potential to simply improving how water is used in agriculture, specifically in growing the commodity crops, corn, cotton and alfalfa.The researchers, led by a team from Virginia Tech, looked at realistic water usage benchmarks for more than 400 products and industries. The team of scientists pinpointed unrealized water savings in various riverbasins across the country."Nearly one-sixth of U.S. river basins cannot consistently meet society's water demands while also providing sufficient water for the environment," said Landon Marston, a Civil & Environmental Engineering professor at Virginia Tech University, in a statement. "Water scarcity is expected to intensify and spread as populations increase, new water demands emerge, and climate changes."However, improving water productivity by meeting realistic benchmarks for all water users could enable U.S. communities to expand economic activity and improve environmental flows. We asked ourselves the questions: if water productivity is improved across the U.S. economy, how much water can be saved and in which industries and locations?' Our study is the first attempt to answer this question on a nationwide scale, and develop benchmarks to inform future action."
A month's worth of rain falls in Punjab in a day, leaving 24 dead and 18 injured, Pakistan (news video) Persistent heavy monsoon rains hit Pakistan's Punjab Province overnight into Thursday, August 20, 2020, leaving at least 24 people dead and 18 hurt. In Lahore, more than 200 mm (8 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours, which is more than the average August rainfall of 164 mm (6 inches).Torrential rains left several houses damaged or destroyed as many homes in rural Pakistan are made of sun-baked mud and flimsy cinder block construction.At least 24 people died while 18 others were injured. According to the emergency services spokesman Muhammad Asghar, most of the fatalities were caused by collapsed walls and roofs.Three of the victims died when a landslide struck a coal mine in Chakwal District.In Lahore, flooding swept through homes and streets after heavy rainfall struck.The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) registered more than 200 mm (8 inches) in a 24-hour period, surpassing the city's average monthly rain for August of 164 mm (6 inches). PMD warned of further heavy rains in Punjab, as well as in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh over the coming days.
Two dams in Karachi overflow, at least 7 killed in weather-related incidents, Pakistan - w/ videos - At least 7 people were killed in different weather-related incidents across Karachi, Pakistan's largest city on August 25, 2020. On August 26, two dams in the city overflowed, placing several towns at risk of major flooding. More heavy rains are expected across the region until Thursday, August 27.The Lath and Thaddo dams in Karachi have overflowed after a day of very heavy rain, placing the towns of Surjani, Saadi, and Safoora Goth at risk of major flooding.The event took place after major urban flooding across the city on Tuesday, August 25, in which at least 7 people lost their lives, including three children. Five people drowned in Gujjar Nullah while 2 others died in Malir after being struck by a lightning.According to local media reports, major roads of the city were flooded and flight operations suspended after continuous monsoon showers on Tuesday morning.Many areas across the city lost power, most of them after K-Electric decided to cut off supply as a safety precaution.In Karachi's Gulistan-e-Johar Block 3, a retaining wall collapsed on the vehicles parked at the back of the apartment complex at Javed Hill View. Around 35 cars and 50 motorbikes were destroyed in the incident but no one was injured. Nearby houses have been evacuated as a precautionary measure.By Tuesday evening, the Sindh government has declared a rain emergency in Karachi and other parts of the province. The government has canceled vacations of all employees and ordered the Provincial Disaster Management Authority to begin relief operations in affected areas.This is the sixth and more powerful spell of monsoon rains that has hit southern parts of the country, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) who issued urban flooding warning for Sindh and Balochistan on August 24.
Storm Francis brings flood, damaging rainfall and record-breaking winds to UK and Ireland - (videos) Storm Francis hit parts of the UK and Ireland on Tuesday, August 25, 2020, bringing heavy rains and flooding that damaged hundreds of properties, prompted dozens of rescues, and left two people missing. The Met Office confirmed that the storm also brought record-high wind speeds across Wales and the Midlands, with gusts between 79 km/h (49 mph) to 125 km/h (78 mph).Floodwaters and fallen trees damaged hundreds of homes and businesses. Debris also blocked roads and rail lines, disrupting travel.Police searched for two missing people who were feared to have fallen into the swollen River Taff. Meanwhile, a woman was safely rescued from the Ely, another swollen river in the Welsh capital.The Met Office confirmed that a number of areas across Wales and the Midlands registered record-high wind speeds for the month of August. Gusts of 109 km/h (68 mph) were recorded at Pembrey Sands, 84 km/h (52 mph) at Shobdon, and 79 km/h (49 mph) at Pershore. All were August highs for the said locations. Wind gusts reached up to 125 km/h (78 mph) off the Isle of Wight.Strong winds prompted the agency to issue an amber warning across most of Wales and central England on Tuesday."Wind speeds this strong are unusual during August and may come as a surprise to people spending time outdoors trying to catch the last few days of summer," said chief meteorologist Steve Ramsdale. In St. Clears, Carmarthenshire, fire crews rescued nine people and two dogs from a flooded campsite after river levels rose. Around 30 other people were also evacuated from a flooded caravan site in Narberth, Pembrokeshire. In Llanelli and Neath, a number of homes were infiltrated by floodwaters. The M48 bridge was closed in both directions due to wind speeds, while power disruptions also affected hundreds of houses. In Newcastle, Northern Ireland, people were rescued from their flooded homes after a river broke its banks, sending waters to 300 houses and submerging streets.
Two weeks after powerful windstorm, Iowa faces humanitarian crisis - More than two weeks after the powerful derecho windstorm devastated a large swath of the US Midwest on August 10, the working class and poor in the hard-hit state of Iowa are still suffering from the catastrophic damage caused by the storm in the face of a lack of resources or urgency from local, state and federal government agencies. A total of 1.9 million residents across the region lost power due to the storm, with 1.4 million maximum simultaneous outages, broken down by state to 759,000 in Illinois, 585,000 in Iowa, 283,000 in Indiana, and 345,000 in other states such as Nebraska and Wisconsin. Four total deaths due to the direct impact of the storm were reported, three in Iowa and one in Indiana. To add to the criminality of the response of the ruling class and government, there exist no warning systems for derechos although they have occurred in the past, a repetition of the failure to warn residents of tornados in many parts of the Midwest and South or to raise alarms in California over the wildfires that swept through the northern part of the state in 2018. In Linn County, Iowa, where winds reached their highest velocity at 140 mph, residents face a serious humanitarian crisis. In the city of Cedar Rapids, the second-largest city in the state with a population of 126,326, every one of the city’s 60,000 homes and businesses were damaged to some degree, according to Mayor Brad Hart. Across Iowa, the storm severely damaged an estimated 82,000 homes. In the immediate aftermath of the storm, roads were impassible, cell phone service was very spotty, and trash removal was stopped across much of the state. At a Monday press conference on the state of emergency in the city, Cedar Rapids Department of Public Works officials explained that crews are continuing to work to remove an estimated 48,000 tons of debris from curbsides. To underscore both the city and state’s utter lack of preparation for such a disaster, officials noted that massive piles of debris in Cedar Rapids are continuing to pile up, with residents responsible for moving and hauling felled trees and other debris to their curbs for pickup. The total timeframe for cleanup and removal of tree debris in the Cedar Rapids area is expected to take months.
Two tropical storms developing into hurricanes as they aim for U.S. --Tropical storms Marco and Laura were expected to develop into hurricanes as they gained strength and aimed for an unprecedented twin strike next week on the mainland U.S.Marco entered the Gulf of Mexico Saturday evening and was headed toward landfall in Louisiana or Mississippi Monday afternoon, according to National Hurricane Center projections. Hurricane status could come as early as Saturday night, federal forecasters said.Laura, over the eastern area of the Dominican Republic Saturday, was expected to strengthen to a hurricane by Tuesday afternoon, the center said. It could make landfall from Texas to Florida's Gulf Coast by Wednesday afternoon, forecasters said."It looks like the upper Gulf is going to get a one-two punch," hurricane center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said. "That's pretty much unprecedented that close together."The shortest time between U.S. landfalls for major storms is 23 hours between Sept. 4 and 5, 1933.Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency Friday ahead of the storms and on Saturday asked President Donald Trump to grant federal emergency status to the state."Tropical Storms Marco and Laura are forecast to impact Louisiana in quick sequence early next week," Edwards' office said in a statement.Marco was in the Gulf of Mexico, about 75 miles west-northwest of Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, according to the hurricane center. It was moving north-northwest at 13 mph.A hurricane watch was in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi-Alabama border, including New Orleans, federal forecasters said.Tropical Storm Laura was about 85 miles east-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. It was moving west at 18 mph.A tropical storm warning was in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and parts of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and a tropical storm watch was issued for the central Bahamas and the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas, the hurricane center said.
Hurricane Laura: Forecast Category 4 poses catastrophic threat to Louisiana and Texas - Hurricane Laura, a major Category 4 storm, is set to hit near the Texas-Louisiana border on Thursday morning as local officials scramble to evacuate thousands of residents. The storm's rapid intensification shocked scientists and prompted forecasters to issue warnings of "unsurvivable storm surge" in Texas and Louisiana. "Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes," the National Hurricane Center said on Wednesday. "This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline." Laura could bring storm surge of nearly 13 feet to the coastline as well as flash flooding and tornadoes on land. The storm battered the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Haiti over the weekend, knocking out power for more than 1 million people, collapsing some homes and killing at least 23 people. "I'm running out of words. Hurricane Laura is now one of the fastest-intensifying storms in recorded history in the Gulf of Mexico," climate scientist Eric Holthaus wrote in a tweet. "Laura now poses a catastrophic, potentially historic threat to coastal Louisiana." Rising ocean temperatures driven by climate change are leading to more intense and destructive hurricanes. As hurricanes such as Laura strengthen more rapidly in warmer waters, states have less time to prepare storm mitigation and evacuate people from dangerous areas. "One thing we've seen in particular — with Harvey in 2017, and Florence and Michael in 2018 and now with Laura — is very rapid intensification, wherein the storm strengthens from a tropical storm to major hurricane status in less than a day," said climate scientist Michael Mann. "Such rapid intensification happens over very warm waters like we've seen in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf in recent years, and right now large parts of the Gulf are bathtub-level hot," Mann said. Leaders in Texas and Louisiana have ordered evacuations for at least 500,000 residents as the states grapple with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Officials are encouraging evacuees to take shelter in hotels where they can self-isolate instead of evacuation centers that could be crowded. "Just because a hurricane is coming to Texas does not mean Covid-19 either has or is going to leave Texas. Covid-19 is going to be in Texas throughout the course of the hurricane," Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said at a news briefing on Tuesday. Laura is headed toward an area that comprises more than 45% of total U.S. petroleum refining capacity and 17% of oil production, according to the Energy Information Administration. Major oil and gas companies have already evacuated employees from offshore production sites in the Gulf of Mexico. As of Tuesday, producers shut down roughly 84% of offshore production in the Gulf as many refinery plants along the Texas and Louisiana coasts shutter in anticipation of life-threatening storm surge.
Category 4 Hurricane "Laura" ties for strongest Louisiana landfalling hurricane on record - Category 4 Hurricane "Laura" made landfall near Cameron in southwestern Louisiana at 06:00 UTC (01:00 CDT) on August 27, 2020, with maximum sustained winds of 241 km/h (150 mph) and minimum central pressure of 938 hPa. Catastrophic storm surge, extreme winds, and flash flooding are occurring in portions of Louisiana.Laura is the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana since the Last Island Hurricane of 1856. Last Island also had maximum sustained winds of 241 km/h (150 mph) - tie for the strongest Louisiana landfalling hurricane on record.The table below, made by Dr. Philip Klotzbach of the CSU, shows 11 strongest hurricanes to make landfall in Louisiana since records began in 1851, based on maximum sustained wind. Laura's minimum central pressure of 938 hPa is the 4th lowest for a Louisiana hurricane landfall on record, trailing Katrina (2005, 920 hPa), Last Island (1856, 934 hPa) and Rita (2005, 937 hPa), Klotzbach noted. Laura is also the 7th named storm to make landfall in continental US (CONUS) in 2020, breaking the old record of 6 named storms making CONUS landfall by the end of August, set in 1886 and 1916.It is also the 7th major hurricane (Category 3+) to hit the state of Louisiana during August since records began in 1851. "Louisiana has been hit by more major hurricanes during August than any other state except Texas," Klotzbach said.
Katrina-like storms are the new normal - Coming ashore as a Category 4, Hurricane Laura is our 15th anniversary reminder that Hurricane Katrina was a failure of the imagination and that we’ve been falling short on disaster preparedness ever since. “I don’t think anyone anticipated the breach of the levees,” President George W. Bush told Diane Sawyer after New Orleans, a below-sea level city, went aquatic in 2005. Actually, one year before Katrina hit, a commission on U.S. Ocean Policy appointed by Bush highlighted the risk of the levees failing. After Katrina hit, I remember driving through the hollowed out city of New Orleans, Plaquemines Parish to its south, and along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coast, and being awed. I was reminded of wars I’d covered, but with fewer deaths (still over 1,800) and far wider destruction. It was a world turned upside down, shrimp boats on the land, houses in the water, barges on levees and whole towns washed away. Army troops patrolled the disaster-stricken areas and refugee camps sprouted wherever there was space. Katrina as it turned out, was not the storm of the century like people thought it might be. Just over three weeks later, Hurricane Rita hit western Louisiana with the same shocking force, in pretty much the same location where Hurricane Laura struck this week, in what is predicted to be one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons in history.In the interim we’ve seen super storms such as Sandy, Ike, Irene, 2017’s Harvey, Irma and Maria, and last year’s Dorian that crushed the Bahamas.A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) studyreleased in May indicates that climate change has been intensifying the strength of hurricanes by about 8 percent per decade over the past 40 years. That means today’s hurricanes will on average be one third more destructive than those that made landfall in the 1980s, when our coastlines were also less built up.A new analysis commissioned by the Environmental Defense Fund finds the cost of climate-linked U.S. natural disasters has also increased four-fold since 1980. The cost of 663 disasters during this period was $1.77 Trillion dollars. Not surprisingly, especially given some 40 percent of the U.S. population is concentrated in our coastal counties, storms and hurricanes accounted for $954.4 billion or over half that cost. These natural disasters, unnaturally enhanced by our energy and development choices, also resulted in over 14,000 deaths. While the death toll isn’t on the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic, it still reflects a significant public risk.
Hurricane Laura's winds batter Louisiana, killing four - At least four people have been killed by falling trees as Hurricane Laura battered the US state of Louisiana. Winds of up to 150mph (240km/h) caused severe damage, with power cuts to more than half a million homes and a chemical fire from an industrial plant. But the feared 20ft (6m) storm surge was avoided as the hurricane, the state's biggest, tracked further east. Laura has now been downgraded to tropical storm status and has crossed into Arkansas. President Donald Trump was briefed at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) in Washington and said he would go to the area at the weekend. He said he had been prepared to postpone his speech at the Republican National Convention later on Thursday to travel to the region but added: "We got a bit lucky. It was very big and very powerful but it passed quickly." Laura and another storm, Marco, earlier swept across the Caribbean, killing 24 people. The victims, killed in separate incidents by trees falling on their homes, included a 14-year-old girl in the Leesville area.
Chemical Fire Caused by Hurricane Laura Near Lake Charles, Louisiana, Drives Residents Indoors --Thick smoke poured across Interstate 10 from a chemical plant fire near Lake Charles, Louisiana, on Thursday, hours after Hurricane Laura roared through the area.Officials said the fire was related to the storm, and downed utility lines, trees and other wreckage from Laura posed a challenge for crews trying to reach the site. Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality spokesman Greg Langley said environmental officials hope to fly over the site as soon as it is safe to do so.“We’ll be doing flyovers, looking for sheens on the water, any little thing we can see — orphan drums, things like that," he said. Residents were advised to follow the situation closely. .The cities of Westlake, Moss Bluff and Sulphur issued emergency shelter-in-place orders, according to KPLC. The alerts said to close doors and windows and turn off air conditioners.Louisiana State Police said they were responding to a chlorine leak at the plant operated by Biolab, which manufactures pool chlorine and cleaning products, the AP reported. At some point during the storm, some of the plant's products began to react and decompose, which caused a fire, The plume of smoke is carrying chlorine, Browning said, but winds are pushing that plume toward Lake Charles. Testing was expected to continue throughout the day. The fire was burning in Westlake, which is on the west side of Lake Charles in in Calcasieu Parish. That area is home to several chemical plants.The Biolab site is on 15 acres within an industrial complex on the southside of I-10 with several other companies. It makes trichloroisocyanuric acid, chlorinating granules and other specialty blends, .Trichloroisocyanuric acid is a white powder often used in granular or tablet form to kill bacteria and control algae in swimming pools and hot tubs.Trichloroisocyanuric acid and chlorine can be toxic to people and animals if ingested or inhaled. Chlorine gas, which was used as a chemical weapon in World War 1, is a powerful irritant to the eyes, throat and lungs.
Hurricane Laura slams Louisiana, kills six, but less damage than forecast - (Reuters) - Hurricane Laura tore through Louisiana on Thursday, killing six people and flattening buildings across a wide swatch of the state before moving into Arkansas with heavy rains. Laura’s powerful gusts uprooted trees - and four people were crushed to death in separate incidents of trees falling on homes. The state’s department of health said late Thursday that there were two more fatalities attributed to the hurricane - a man who drowned while aboard a sinking boat and a man who had carbon monoxide poisoning caused by a generator in his home. In Westlake, a chemical plant caught fire when hit by Laura, and the flames continued to send a chlorine-infused plume of smoke skyward nearly 24 hours after landfall. Laura caused less mayhem than forecasts predicted - but officials said it remained a dangerous storm and that it would take days to assess the damage. At least 867,000 homes and businesses in Louisiana, Texas and Arkansas remained without power on Thursday afternoon. “This was the most powerful storm to ever make landfall in Louisiana,” Governor John Bel Edwards told a news conference. “It’s continuing to cause damage and life-threatening conditions.” Laura’s maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour (241 kph) upon landfall easily bested Hurricane Katrina, which sparked deadly levee breaches in New Orleans in 2005, and arrived with wind speeds of 125 mph. The NHC said Laura’s eye had crossed into southern Arkansas late Thursday afternoon and was heading to the northeast at 15 mph (24 kph). The storm could dump 7 inches (178 mm) of rain on portions of Arkansas, likely causing flash floods. Satellite imagery showing buildings along W McNeese Street before Hurricane Laura hit Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. in this September 29, 2019 handout photo. Satellite image ©2020 Maxar Technologies/Handout via REUTERS Laura was downgraded to a tropical depression by the NHC at 10 p.m., and the forecaster said it will move to the mid-Mississippi Valley later on Friday and then to the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. Laura’s howling winds leveled buildings across a wide swath of the state and a wall of water that was 15 feet (4.6 m) high crashed into tiny Cameron, Louisiana, where the hurricane made landfall around 1 a.m. A calamitous 20-foot storm surge that had been forecast to move 40 miles (64 km) inland was avoided when Laura tacked east just before landfall, Edwards said. That meant a mighty gush of water was not fully pushed up the Calcasieu Ship Channel, which would have given the storm surge an easy path far inland.
Strong winds from Hurricane Laura reversed the flow of Mississippi River water - Strong winds blowing north from Hurricane Laura appeared to reverse the flow of many waterways along the Louisiana Gulf Coast, including the Mississippi and the Neches rivers, as it approached land.Laura came ashore as a Category 4 storm early Thursday near the Texas state line, ripping off roofs, damaging buildings and robbing hundreds of thousands of power.Rivers normally flow into the Gulf, but Laura's strong winds blew the top layer of water upriver, away from the Gulf, instead. Chris Dier captured a time lapse of the phenomena Wednesday afternoon from Arabi, one neighborhood downriver of New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward and about 200 miles east of where Laura made landfall. In the tweeted video, a Gulf-bound barge can be seen fighting against the inland flow of the water.The winds in Arabi and across southern Louisiana gusted at tropical-storm force throughout Wednesday and Thursday morning, as Laura passed to the west. These winds pushed the surface water back up river, as seen in the video, CNN Weather experts said.River gauges maintained by the US Geological Survey and the Army Corps of Engineers showed that the main current of both rivers slowed during this time, likely because the surface water was flowing in the opposite direction, along with the wind, they said.
Hurricane Laura damage: Before and after satellite images of Louisiana show widespread destruction – CNN - New satellite images are giving a glimpse of the destruction that Hurricane Laura has waged across Louisiana. Hurricane Laura roared through southwestern Louisiana early Thursday morning, killing six and leaving behind a wide path of destruction. CNN has obtained new satellite images from Maxar Technologies that are showing just how destructive the storm was. At the Lake Charles Regional Airport, it appears the Freeman Jet Center and aircraft hangars on the northern end of the airport have sustained significant damage. A number of buildings have large portions of their roofs missing. It appears the debris has been scattered among the grounds and the runways. Just under two miles to the northeast, images indicate that homes in the neighborhood west of the Lake Charles Memorial Hospital for Women have also likely sustained significant damage. On either side of Gauthier Road, debris litters the yards of homes and it appears that most of them have had extensive roof damage. Roof damage isn't the only thing that Louisianans are dealing with in the aftermath of Laura. Power outages are widespread across the area. A joint NASA and NOAA operated satellite is showing just how extensive they are. The imagery taken by the Suomi National Polar satellite shows much of western Louisiana is without power. Additional imagery from Maxar Technologies shows a community of mobile homes along Flounder Drive and Tuna Lane appear to have also sustained damage as the Category 4 hurricane came through Lake Charles, Louisiana. It appears that some homes along Tuna Lane were affected by floodwaters from a nearby canal. Almost nine miles away, the satellite images appear to show that Grand Lake High School dodged roofing damage. However, buildings nearby appear to have been nearly obliterated during the storm. On either side of Louisiana Highway 384, the roofs of a number of the buildings near the high school are shredded or completely missing.
Hurricane Laura: Louisiana Residents Face Weeks Without Power, Water - Residents in parts of Louisiana face weeks without power - and maybe water, too - after Hurricane Laura ripped away power lines and knocked out water plants that serve hundreds of thousands of people. The power and water outages come as the state is facing some of its hottest days of the year so far, which could make for dangerous conditions during cleanup operations. Heavy rain is also forecast in some areas. Residents like Nikki Norman, who lives in Holly Beach, returned home to find their properties ripped apart by the storm. “This roof blew off. There’s some of it over there,” Michael Putman, owner of Putman Restoration, told the Associated Press Friday as he worked to repair First United Methodist in Lake Charles. He pointed to part of the roof laying nearby. Water poured into the church as the crew worked. Downed power lines, trees and other debris littered the streets in Lake Charles. The water outages were causing problems for hospitals and nursing homes. "We’re transferring all of our patients out of here just due to the lack of municipal water," Matt Felder, a spokesman for Lake Charles Memorial Hospital, told weather.com in an interview late Friday afternoon. "We feel it would be in the best interest of the patient to have them somewhere else." Among the patients evacuated included 19 babies in the NICU, who had already been moved from another hospital because of the storm. At least 10 other hospitals and several nursing homes evacuated patients to other facilities, The Advocate reported. As of Friday afternoon, 98 water systems statewide were out of operation, leaving some 177,000 people without water. More than 400,000 homes and businesses in Louisiana remained without power Saturday, according to poweroutage.us. Another 79,000 were still without power in Texas and about 13,000 in Arkansas.
Hurricane Laura moves out, forecasters eye Nana and Omar - Hello Nana and Omar? Although the remnants of Hurricane Laura are still drenching parts of the eastern U.S. Friday, there are already concerns about more storms stirring in the Atlantic Ocean.The National Hurricane Center has identified two areas for potential tropical development, one in the central Atlantic, the other in the eastern Atlantic. Both have a 30% chance of development within the next five days. For the one in the central Atlantic, the hurricane center said that "some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands." For the other one, in the eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands, "some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic," according to the hurricane center. Should the systems develop into named storms, the next two names on the list are Nana and Omar. Storms get names when their sustained winds reach 39 mph.
Increasing Number of Climate Disasters Impacting Mental Health -The psychological toll of climate change-fueled disasters, now compounded by the coronavirus pandemic, is mounting and the U.S. is unprepared. These are the findings of a project by the Center for Public Integrity and Columbia Journalism Investigations, in collaboration with 10 local and regional outlets.The U.S. has faced nearly 40 billion-dollar disasters in the past decade, more than ever before. One such event, Hurricane Harvey in 2017, caused half of Houston-area residents to struggle with powerful or severe emotional distress in its aftermath, according to a Rice University survey to be published Wednesday.Meanwhile, the main federal vehicle for addressing the psychological trauma of weather and climate disasters, the Crisis Counseling Assistance and Training Program, run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, has distributed about as much in post-disaster assistance over its three decades of existence ($867 million) as one agency within the Department of Defense lost track of in a single year.Even if the government were to fully fund and support comprehensive mental health care for disaster survivors, it would be insufficient without action to mitigate the underlying reality of climate change, advocates argue."After a disaster, if the government does not declare a climate emergency and start acting like it, it's just such a betrayal," said Margaret Klein Salamon, a psychologist who started the advocacy group The Climate Mobilization after living through Superstorm Sandy. Providing mental-health support while failing to fight climate change, "is like a Band-Aid. How can we trust a government that does so little to protect us?"
Hundreds of thousands displaced, six dead as 600 fires rip across California - A hellish nightmare has engulfed the West Coast of the United States. Record breaking heat waves, fire and lightning storms have led to the outbreak of over 600 fires throughout the state. The nation's largest and most populous state, and a global breadbasket, has been turned into a deadly inferno fueled by extreme heat waves and weather conditions that sparked fires which have decimated land areas larger than the state of Rhode Island. Currently some 13,700 firefighters are battling the blazes, air pollution is at hazardous levels and at least six lives have been lost.The dead include a helicopter pilot who crashed while dropping water on blazes in Fresno County, a still unidentified family of three in Napa County, a male Solano County resident and a Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) utility employee working in the Vacaville area.Two firefighters in Marin County nearly lost their lives on Friday after they were surrounded by flames from the Woodward fire. By chance, a helicopter was nearby and rescued them with minutes to spare. “Had it not been for that helicopter there, those firefighters would certainly have perished,” said Sonoma County Sheriff Mark Essick. Rare August thunderstorms last week above the Northern California Bay Area produced more than 20,000 lightning strikes that hit trees and vegetation, at a time when vegetation is at its driest, resulting in fires and “complexes” of numerous fires that have merged into major conflagrations in parts of the state. As of Saturday night, more than 140,000 people in the Bay Area have been evacuated while many are choosing to stay behind and attempt to protect their home from approaching walls of fire.The group of fires known as the L.N.U. Lightning Complex in Napa Valley, burning across the counties of Sonoma, Lake, Napa, Yolo and Solano is the second largest fire in California history. Fire has burned through more than 341,000 acres and consumed 845 buildings and damaged another 230 and is only 17 percent contained as of midday Sunday.At least 20 fires continue to rage East of Silicon Valley, also known as the S.C.U. Lightning Complex group fires, affecting locations in Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties. The S.C.U complex fires have grown to 339,968 acres and are now the third largest fire in state history, primarily overtaking less-populated areas. They are only ten percent contained.The CZU Lightning Complex started August 16 from lightning strikes in San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties. The complex has charred 71,000 acres, 24,000 structures are threatened, and it is eight percent contained as of Sunday. The River Fire in Monterey County has scorched 42,583 acres, up from 10,000 acres Wednesday, and is 12 percent contained.The Lake Fire near Lake Hughes in Los Angeles County has continued to burn since August 12 when it began near the Angeles National Forest. So far, it has destroyed 12 structures and 21 outbuildings, damaged six structures and threatens 1,329 others, and has consumed a total of 30,763 acres. By Sunday evening it was only 52 percent contained. Full containment is not expected until early next month.
California Wildfires Cover 1 Million Acres In A Week As Storms Expected To Fan Flames --In the course of just one week, wildfires blazing across the state of California have burned through nearly one million acres statewide, destroying hundreds of homes ahead of an expected storm system heading toward the state that could bring more high winds and lightning strikes. Two clusters of wildfires in the Bay Area have grown to become the second- and third-largest wildfires in recent state history by size. Light winds and cooler and more humid nighttime weather helped fire crews make progress on those fires and a third group of fires south of San Francisco ahead of the forecast of warm, dry weather, erratic wind gusts and lightning, state fire officials said. Weary firefighters in California raced Saturday to slow the spread of the blazes as President Donald Trump issued a major disaster declaration to provide federal assistance. Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement that the declaration will also help people in counties affected by the fires with crisis counseling, housing and other social services. Calm weather overnight allowed firefighters to make progress against a trio of massive wildfires burning in Northern California, but they were bracing for a weather system Sunday that will bring high winds and thunderstorms that could spark new fires and fan existing blazes that destroyed nearly 1,000 homes and other structures and forced tens of thousands to evacuate. The "complexes," or groups of fires, burning on all sides of the San Francisco Bay Area, were initially sparked by lightning strikes - some of roughly 12,000 strikes registered in the state in the past week. The National Weather Service issued a “red flag” warning through Monday afternoon for the drought-stricken areas across the Bay Area, meaning extreme fire conditions, including high temperatures, low humidity and wind gusts up to 65 mph "may result in dangerous and unpredictable fire behavior." The LA Times reported Sunday night that the US military and the state national guard have been deployed to help fight the blazes due to the shortage of able-bodied prisoners able to double as firefighters. In some parts of the state people are collecting supplies to help those displaced by the blazes.
Report: California's Oldest State Park, Home To Majestic Coast Redwoods, Is 'Gone' - California’s oldest state park and home to some of the most celebrated ancient coast redwood trees appears to be no more, at least the "historic core" and well-known facilities in the park."We are devastated to report that Big Basin State Park, as we have known it, loved it, and cherished it for generations, is gone," Sempervirens Fund, an organization dedicated to redwoods protection, wrote in a post to their website Thursday afternoon.The CZU Lightning Complex, a combination of several fires burning over the last several days in San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties, has "damaged the park’s headquarters, historic core and campgrounds," according to a news release from the California Department of Parks and Recreation.Big Basin was California’s very first state park, acquired by the state in 1902.While the park features over 80 miles of trails and spectacular views of the Pacific Ocean, its true stars are the 250-foot-tall ancient coast redwood trees. They’re estimated to be between 1,000 and 1,800 years old and are thought to predate the Roman Empire.The fate of the park’s oldest trees is not yet known. Some reports show many of the giant redwoods were touched by the flames, but still standing. "Nearly all Big Basin’s iconic redwood trees were scorched, and while many escaped the blaze with foliage intact, dozens near the park center had been torched up to the crown and their tops had burned off or broken," The Mercury News wrote Thursday. According to the New York Times, conditions at Big Basin remain too dangerous for anyone to assess damage to the trees.
California's Big Basin Redwoods Severely Damaged by Fires -Many of Big Basin Redwoods State Park’s coast redwood trees, which have come to symbolize California’s grandeur and ecological diversity, are 1,000 to 1,800 years old, hundreds of feet tall and, in some instances, over 50 feet in circumference. Most were on fire earlier this week, as the CZU August Lightning Complex Fires tore through the park, causing several of the ancient trees to fall.On Wednesday, the California Department of Parks and Recreation said in a statement that Big Basin Redwoods State Park—California’s oldest state park—had been “extensively damaged” by the CZU August Lightning Complex Fire in Santa Cruz County. As of Saturday morning, the fire has burned 63,000 acres,caused the evacuation of at least 77,000 people and is 5% contained, according to state officials. Park officials said the park’s headquarters, “historic core” and campgrounds had all been damaged by the fires, and all campers, day visitors and park staff have been evacuated. The park is closed until further notice. The 118-year-old park includes the largest continuous stand of ancient coast redwoods trees south of San Francisco, and has been featured in numerous films and pieces of writing, including Alfred Hitchcock’s Vertigo.Mercury News reported on Friday that while “the vast majority” of the park’s redwoods are still standing, several have fallen, including one ancient redwood that had a base “more than a dozen feet across.” The News also reported that nearly every one of the park’s redwoods had been “scorched.”“We are devastated to report that Big Basin, as we have known it, loved it and cherished it for generations, is gone,” the Sempervirens Fund, a nonprofit whose mission is to protect and preserve redwoods, said in a statement. “Early reports are that the wildfire has consumed much of the park’s historic facilities. We do not yet know the fate of the park’s grandest old trees.”
These Photos Show How The Oldest State Park In California Has Been Destroyed By Fire California is having a tough time with a heat wave, rolling blackouts, and wildfires (not to mention the pandemic) all converging in an unholy alliance. There are over 500 fires blazing across the state, with the Bay Area is hit especially hard.The CZU Lightning Complex Fire is part of series of wildfires in Northern California that combined have burned more than 770,000 acres and blamed for five deaths. The CZU fire alone has burned 55,000 acres as of Friday and was 0% contained after being sparked by lightning on Aug. 17.Big Basin Redwoods State Park, which was founded in 1902 and is the oldest park in California, has been hit particularly hard. Park structures and nearby houses have been destroyed, and some of the redwoods were damaged. Rangers have also had difficulty accessing parts of the park to assess other damage due to continued fire risk, Chris Spohrer, the local district superintendent for state parks, told the Santa Cruz Sentinel. Here's a look at some of the damage to the historic from the past few days.
Most ancient redwoods survive California fire - Most of California's ancient redwood trees have survived so far amid massive wildfires burning across Northern California, according to The Associated Press. A reporter hiking in the area confirmed the survival of most of the centuries-old giants, including one known as the "Mother of the Forest" in Big Basin Redwoods State Park, according to the news service. The trees' survival was thought to be in question after a wildfire swept through the park last week, according to the AP, which captured images of some trees taking major damage from the fires. However, the trees have been through multiple fires before, and though some have been felled by fires, more are expected to grow from those that fell. “The forest is not gone,” Laura McLendon, an official with a local redwood conservation group, told the AP. “It will regrow. Every old growth redwood I’ve ever seen, in Big Basin and other parks, has fire scars on them. They’ve been through multiple fires, possibly worse than this.” Death toll from California fires rises to seven Report: Empty homes, vehicles looted during California wildfire... “The reason those trees are so old is because they are really resilient,” added an official with the California Department of Parks and Recreation. Much of the state is currently affected by wildfires ravaging forested areas of California as a result of thousands of lightning strikes in the region so far this month, with more than 14,000 state firefighters mobilizing in response.
‘Is This Real Life?’ A Wall of Fire Robs a Russian River Town of its Nonchalance —Days before the raging wildfire threatening to destroy western Sonoma County started, the big worry among Guerneville residents was that our little town might just be too popular. Tourists from all over the San Francisco Bay area and beyond were crowding the Russian River beach towns, with Guerneville, the biggest (pop. 4,800) chief among them. Still, the complaints came with a side of pride. Who could blame city refugees for flocking to Guerneville? Nestled amid majestic redwood forests, it's a love song to nature, with idyllic summer weather—warm, never hot, breezy, never humid—and air so refreshing that taking a deep breath feels like drinking in health. Or it did. Ash fell from the sky like gray snow flurries when the evacuation order came Tuesday night, forcing the entire town—in all, 12,000 residents around the region—to flee. . Just as in accounts from people in Paradise, the wooded town in Northern California obliterated by the Camp Fire in 2018, all the roads out of town—two—were jammed. We crawled through the smoke-choked air, windows up, reached the 101 freeway nearly an hour later, and dispersed to hotels and the homes of friends and family. I drove 75 miles south, to San Francisco. The giant fire wall looming over the coastal ridges north of Guerneville, completely uncontained two days later, has fouled the skies with smoke for miles around. On Wednesday, fires flaring across five Bay Area counties combined to give Northern California the worst air quality in the world, according to a report by PurpleAir, a Utah company that measures airborne particulate matter in real time. But smoky air is the least of Guerneville's worries. The greatest is the fire itself. On Thursday, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) officials called the fire, dubbed the Walbridge Fire, the most worrisome among the cluster of lightning-sparked blazes in Northern California known as the LNU Lightning Complex. The complex includes fires in Vacaville (contained on Thursday) and near Lake Berryessa, west of Sacramento. Fires are raging up and down California, sparked by a combination of record heat and nearly 11,000 lightning strikes over 72 hours—a "lightning siege"—as officials have called it. On Tuesday, Gov. Gavin Newsom blamed the new reality of extreme weather on climate change and declared a state of emergency. Since then, the situation has gotten worse, with fires growing in number and size.The acreage burned and evacuations ordered have been changing so rapidly that they become outdated within hours after being reported.
‘They Have Nowhere To Run’: Inmate Families, Advocates Push for Prisoner Release as California Wildfires Engulf State - As wildfires rage in California, advocates are pushing for Gov. Gavin Newsom to evacuate prisons in the line of the fires.“It’s disaster on top of disaster on top of disaster,” Kirsten Roehler, whose 78-year-old father, Fred Roehler, is imprisoned in Lancaster, California, toldThe Guardian. The 2020 wildfire season is especially difficult for multiple reasons, including record high temperatures and extreme weather a nd, of course, Covid-19. Flames burned through more than 770,000 acres in the Golden State within just one week, theWashington Post reported Friday, leaving five people dead and air quality continually decreasing. Some of the state’s prisons are located in areas under evacuation orders, including the California Medical Facility (CMF) and Solano State Prison, which are outside of Vacaville, California.“They are breathing in fire and smoke, and they have nowhere to run,” Sophia Murillo, 39, whose brother is incarcerated at CMF in Vacaville told The Guardian. “Everyone has evacuated but they were left there in prison. Are they going to wait until the last minute to get them out?” Civil rights advocates have called on the governor to release offenders since the Covid-19 outbreak began ravaging prison populations and staff throughout the United States. Newsom and other governors have released thousands of prisoners in light of the pandemic, but with the fires raging closer and closer to physical prison structures, the calls for more action are growing.In Vacaville, instead of releasing the nonviolent inmates, officials moved 80 prisoners “to sleep in outdoor tents instead of indoor cells” in a move meant to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 in its facility, The Guardian reported. But the wildfires have damaged air quality, prompting authorities to move the inmates back inside.“I’m furious at the incompetence and severe inhumanity of this,” Kate Chatfield, policy director with the Justice Collaborative, a group that fights mass incarceration, told The Guardian. “Covid is allowed to rage through the prison system and kill people, and then they have tent hospitals set up … and now with wildfires, they take down the tents and put these people back in the Covid-infected building?”
Seven dead and 170,000 displaced as massive wildfires continue to burn in Northern California - At least seven people have died in fires raging across Northern California, including a helicopter pilot who crashed while fighting a fire in Mt. Hood National Forest, three people found in a hillside bunker in Napa Valley, a Pacific Gas & Electric employee who died from smoke inhalation while assisting firefighters, a male Solano County resident, and on Sunday, a 70-year-old man from Santa Cruz County. At least 33 people have been injured, and at least two are missing. The fires began early last week after thunderstorms produced by a tropical storm resulted in over 13,000 dry-lightning strikes, setting off hundreds of small fires, which merged into massive “fire complexes.” The fires were fueled by strong winds and a severe heatwave, which has affected much of the western United States over the past week and caused rolling blackouts throughout the state. Unusually dry air and wide areas of critically dry vegetation—part of a decades-long shift in the region’s climate toward greater aridity—have caused the fires to burn more intensely and closer to populated areas than in the past. The three largest fire complexes are burning on all sides of the heavily-populated San Francisco Bay Area, not far from the eastern edge of San Jose. As of Monday night, the SCU Lightning Complex to the southeast had burned 363,000 acres (568 square miles) and was 15 percent contained; the LNU Lightning Complex to the northeast had burned 352,000 acres (551 square miles) and was 27 percent contained; and the CZU Lightning Complex to the south had burned 78,000 acres (109 square miles) and was 17 percent contained. The August Lightning Complex further north had burned 181,000 acres (283 square miles) and was 11 percent contained. As of Tuesday morning, 937 structures have been destroyed and 251 damaged, and the fires continue to threaten some 30,500 additional structures, according to Cal Fire, California’s fire agency. The National Weather Service has set air quality alerts for much of California’s Central Valley, and parts of Oregon, Idaho, and Colorado. The San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Valley regions have spent days covered in a thick haze of smoke, and the concentration of fine particulate matter in the Bay Area has reached roughly five times the daily limit set by the EPA.
California Wildfires Destroy Condor Sanctuary, at Least 4 Birds Still Missing - One of the many wildfires raging through California has destroyed a sanctuary for endangered condors, and the fate of at least four of the birds remains unknown. The Dolan Fire on Friday scorched an 80-acre condor sanctuary operated in Big Sur by the group Ventana Wildlife Society, the San Jose Mercury News reported. In the process, it took out a remote camera that was monitoring a condor chick nesting in a redwood about one mile away. Ventana Wildlife Society Executive Director Kelly Sorenson said the baby's parents flew away as the fire advanced. "We were horrified. It was hard to watch. We still don't know if the chick survived, or how well the free-flying birds have done," he told the San Jose Mercury News. "I'm concerned we may have lost some condors. Any loss is a setback. I'm trying to keep the faith and keep hopeful." The imperilled chick, named Iniko, was born April 25. Its name is of Nigerian origin and means "born during troubled times," according to the Ventana Wildlife Society website. In addition to Iniko, at least four other wild condors remain unaccounted for, and it is not yet safe for biologists to search for them because the fire continues to burn, Sorenson told the San Jose Mercury News. The Dolan Fire ignited last Wednesday in Los Padres National Forest, according to The Associated Press. It is one of hundreds of fires raging in the state that have so far killed at least seven people, burned almost 1,300 structures and forced around 170,000 people to flee their homes during the coronavirus pandemic. A man has been arrested as a suspected arsonist in connection with the Dolan Fire specifically. However, University of California, Los Angeles scientist Daniel Swain said the climate crisis means California's wildfires are more likely to grow larger and spread more quickly once they start.
Wildfires continue to rage across California amidst heat wave and pandemic - Fires, ash and disease continue to rage throughout much of the West Coast of the United States. Record-breaking heat waves and fires sparked by powerful lightning storms have torn through several areas of California over the past week, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. The scene is apocalyptic as fires rage throughout much of northern California, with a smoke-filled haze covering the dense San Francisco Bay Area and statewide heat waves prompting utility companies to induce rolling power outages. So far this year, more than 7,000 fires have decimated over 1.6 million acres (2,500 square miles), an area larger than the state of Delaware, to make this fire season one of the most active in California history. In comparison, by August of 2019, some 4,292 fires had burned 56,000 acres across the state. According to Cal Fire, California’s fire agency, there are currently over 650 active fires of varying sizes, which have so far destroyed over 2,000 structures and killed at least seven people. Hundreds of small fires began after thunderstorms hit on the night of August 17, resulting in over 13,000 dry-lightning strikes, which led to massive “fire complexes.” Strong winds and a severe heat wave have exacerbated the situation, creating the second and third largest fires in California history. The most destructive of the blazes, the LNU Lightning Complex in the northern San Francisco Bay Area counties of Napa, Lake and Sonoma, has destroyed close to 1,000 buildings. It continues to threaten about 30,000 more buildings and has killed at least five people. As of Wednesday morning, the fire had been 33 percent contained. The SCU Lightning Complex grew to become the second largest wildfire in California state history after surpassing the acreage of the LNU Lightning Complex on Monday. Only the 2018 Mendocino Complex was larger. The fire, threatening residents east of Silicon Valley proper in Santa Clara, Alameda, Stanislaus, Contra Costa and San Joaquin counties, has destroyed nearly 40 structures and threatens over 20,000 more. The third of the large fire complexes, the CZU Complex, has destroyed over 530 structures throughout Santa Cruz and San Mateo counties, south of San Francisco. Cal Fire reported progress in containing the fire for the first time on Wednesday, but the fire remains at 19 percent containment and officials warn that the trend could change if weather conditions worsen. Most devastatingly, the fire has led to the indefinite closure of Big Basin Redwoods State Park, the oldest in California and home to redwood trees hundreds of years old, which have been completely destroyed. Pollution from the smoke of multiple fires burning at once has significantly worsened air quality across California and southern parts of Oregon. Officials project that the air quality index (AQI) for Northern and Central California will remain at levels up to three times the acceptable range set by the Environmental Protection Agency until at least Sunday. Polluted air has the potential to weaken the immune systems of otherwise healthy people. This makes the situation all the more dire in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which, like smoke inhalation, affects the respiratory system. California already has one of the highest infection rates in the country, with more than 6,000 new cases reported on average each day. Studies suggest that areas with higher levels of air pollution correlate to higher COVID-19 infection rates.
Pine Gulch Fire in western Colorado tops 50% containment — The second-largest wildfire in Colorado history is now 53% contained, according to the latest update from fire officials Thursday morning. More than 900 personnel are helping to fight the Pine Gulch Fire which has grown to 135,958 acres and burned five structures — one a primary residence, which burned Aug. 18, and four minor structures, such as sheds. Fire crews expect cooler temperatures Thursday with the possibility of strong winds throughout the day and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Fire officials said there was minimal growth (38 acres) on Wednesday. Fire spread outside the fire perimeter should be limited again Thursday due to successful containment lines. Most fire activity will be interior burning when fire picks up pockets of unburned fuels. The overall focus on the Pine Gulch Fire is quickly shifting from fire suppression to suppression repair, fire officials said Thursday. Suppression repair involves actions that help minimize damage to soil, water, and other resources directly attributable to fire suppression activities. Ranchers in the area are feeling the impact of the Pine Gulch Fire. Many of their cattle graze on private or BLM lands that burned in the fire. They've spent days wrangling their cows and getting them away from the fire and smoke. Smoke plumes will be visible Wednesday primarily from pockets of unburned fuel burning well within the interior of the fire where it is not a threat. “They’ve just been dealing with a tremendous amount of stress," Rancher Ryan Cassidy said their cattle in Mesa County, Colo. made it through the Pine Gulch Fire and even still had a little feed and water. Since last Friday night, D&M Meats has been home base for donations of food from all over the Western Slope. Gillilan's company provided much of the meat, and caterers and volunteers stepped up to bring the rest. All the donated food is donated to ranchers and their families.
Extreme Heat, Wildfires and Record-Setting Storms Suggest the Future Climate Crisis Is Already Here -From the historic heat wave and wildfires in the West, to the massive derecho that tore through the middle of the nation, to the record-breaking pace of this year's hurricane season, the unprecedented and concurrent extreme conditions resemble the chaotic climate future scientists have been warning us about for decades — only it's happening right now.While climate catastrophes are typically spaced out in time and geographic location, right now the U.S. is dealing with multiple disasters. The Midwest is cleaning up from a devastating derecho that caused nearly $4 billion in damage to homes and crops, as nearly a quarter-million people in the West are under evacuation orders or warnings from fires that have burned over 1 million acres, and at the same time residents along the Gulf Coast are bracing for back-to-back landfalls of a tropical storm and hurricane."This current stretch of natural catastrophe events in the United States are essentially a snapshot of what scientists and emergency managers have long feared," says meteorologist Steven Bowen, the head of Catastrophe Insight at AON, an international risk mitigation firm.To be sure, these events are not all related to each other, but the one thing they do have in common is that climate change makes each one more likely. The simple explanation is that there's more energy in the system and that energy is expended in the form of more extreme heat, fire, wind and rain.It may be tempting to look at these extremes as a "new normal," but Dr. Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, says while it may be new, it won't be normal."For some time we have talked about a 'new normal' but the issue is that it keeps changing. It does not stop at a new state. That change is what is so disruptive," he said. The fires unfolding in California right now have no parallel in modern times. With more than 1 million acres burned in just one week, the season is already historic with more acres burned in this past week than is typical of an entire year. Two of the state's top three largest fires on record are burning at the same time — the LNU and SCU complex fires — with the likelihood that one of these will take over the top spot soon. As of Monday morning, CalFire reports over 7,000 fires have burned more than 1.4 million acres this season, overwhelming resources to the point where many of the smaller fires are being allowed to burn. CalFire stated that to fight these fires to the maximum of their ability, the agency would need nearly 10 times more firefighting resources than are available. Daniel Swain is a well-known climate scientist who specializes in studying the link between climate change and weather in the West at the University of California, Los Angeles. In a blog post he described how even someone like him, well-versed in climate disaster, is shocked by the current situation: "I'm essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California – even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. It's truly astonishing."
Marine Heat Waves Are Becoming More Common and Intense. What Can We Do to Minimize Harm? - Laurie Weitkamp, a research fisheries biologist with the Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Newport, Oregon, knew that something had been afoot in the northeast part of the Pacific Ocean since the fall of 2013, which was unusually sunny, warm and calm. A mass of warm water stretched from Mexico to Alaska and lingered through 2016, disrupting marine life. Tunicates weren't the only creature affected; sea nettle jellyfish all but disappeared, while water jellyfish populations moved north to take their place, and young salmon starved to death out at sea, according to a report by Weitkamp and colleagues. Scientists dubbed this event "The Blob." Marine heat waves like The Blob have cropped up around the globe more and more often over the past few decades. Scientists expect climate change to make them even more common and long lasting, harming vulnerable aquatic species as well as human enterprises such as fishing that revolve around ocean ecosystems. But there's no reliable way to know when one is about to hit, which means that fishers and wildlife managers are left scrambling to reduce harm in real time. The Blob, which lasted three years, is the longest marine heat wave on record. Before that, a heat wave that began in 2015 in the Tasman Sea lasted more than eight months, killing abalone and oysters. A 2012 heat wave off the East Coast of Canada and the U.S., the largest on record at the time, pushed lobsters northward. It beat the previous record — a 2011 marine heat wave that uprooted seaweed, fish and sharks off western Australia. Before that, a 2003 heat wave in the Mediterranean Sea clinched the record while ravaging marine life. As with temperature on land, there's an average ocean temperature on any particular day of the year: Sometimes the water will be warmer, sometimes it will be colder, and every once in a while it will be extremely warm or cold. But greenhouse gas emissions have bumped up the average temperature. Now, temperatures that used to be considered extremely warm happen more often — and every so often, large sections of the ocean are pushed into unprecedented heat, Oliver says. Pelagic ocean ecosystems, however, have not caught up to these hotter temperatures. Organisms may be able to survive a steady temperature rise, but a heat wave can push them over the edge. When blue swimmer crabs started dying in western Australia's Shark Bay after the 2011 heat wave, the government shut down blue crab fishing for a year and a half. This was hard on industry at the time, says Peter Jecks, managing director of Abacus Fisheries, but it managed to save crab populations. Not all creatures were so lucky — abalone near the heat wave's epicenter still haven't recovered. "If you don't have strong predictions [of marine heat waves], you can't be proactive. You're left to be reactive," says Thomas Wernberg, an associate professor of marine ecology at the University of Western Australia.
Violent flooding leaves at least 110 fatalities, 2 000 houses destroyed in Parwan, Afghanistan - (videos) At least 110 people died and around 2 000 houses were destroyed after violent flash flooding swept through Parwan, Afghanistan, on August 26, 2020, with authorities noting that the death toll may continue to rise. The disaster management added that dozens were injured and more than 1 000 people have been evacuated. Torrential rains poured overnight, triggering the deluge that caught people off guard. Gushing waters carried mud and debris, toppling houses and sweeping away bodies in their wake. Mahmood Samadi, a resident of Parwan's capital Charikar, said he was awakened by the sound of floodwaters raging through his neighborhood, prompting him to evacuate his family out of the city. Samadi told The New York Times that when he came back, his house was submerged and six homes on his street had already been destroyed. "I don't know about the exact casualties in our street, but I know many people were killed and wounded." Another local described the moment the floods struck. "I grabbed the window and was holding it for two hours until the neighbors came to rescue me," said a 70-year-old resident named Hamida, adding that she had lost everything. According to Parwan governor Fazludin Ayar, the fatalities were estimated to be hundreds, including 11 members of the same family. Rescue teams said many people remain buried under the rubbles, and it is feared that the death toll may rise. Disaster Management Ministry spokesman Ahmad Tameem Azimi reported that more than 2 000 houses were destroyed across the province, and more than 1 000 have been displaced so far.
Are Forever Chemicals Harming Ocean Life? -- In seabird after seabird, Anna Robuck found something concerning: per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, lurking around vital organs."Brain, liver, kidney, lung, blood, heart," Robuck says, rattling off a few hiding spots before pausing to recall the rest. Robuck, a Ph.D. candidate in chemical oceanography at the University of Rhode Island, quickly settles on a simpler response: She found the chemicals everywhere she looked. PFAS — a group of synthetic chemicals — are often called "forever chemicals" due to their quasi-unbreakable molecular bonds and knack for accumulating in living organisms. That foreverness is less of a design flaw than a design feature: The stubborn, versatile molecules help weatherproof clothing; smother flames in firefighting foam; and withstand heat and grime on nonstick pans. Through consumption and disposal, the chemicals seep into ecosystems and bodies, where they have beenlinked to cancers, pregnancy complications, and reproductive and immune dysfunction. Recent attention has focused on the prevalence of PFAS in drinking water. "Over the past 10-15 years we've really developed this super negative picture of what PFAS do to humans," Robuck says. "But we've barely scratched the surface of that in wildlife." One particular area of concern is the marine ecosystem. Long seen as a bottomless sink for pollutants, the ocean is a final stop for PFAS trickling into the ecosystem. Once in the ocean, PFAS can persist for decades or longer — and travel long distances. As a result, a growing body of scientific research suggests that marine wildlife are accumulating dangerous amounts of "forever chemicals." "If we continue to emit PFAS, then the capacity of the ocean to dilute them is going to be exceeded," saysJamie DeWitt, an environmental toxicologist at Eastern Carolina University. "For all we know, oceans could be reservoirs that re-pollute the land." Coastal environments seem especially vulnerable to PFAS seeping from the chemical plants and military bases responsible for heavy contamination. Charlotte Wagner, a researcher at Harvard University studying the global transport of pollutants, says it's still unclear what fraction of PFAS pollutants remain contained at their source, and what fraction has already leached into other environments. . Studies in the early 2000s showed that PFAS survived decades-long journeys from manufacturers to remote ocean basins without breaking down. . Large-scale ocean circulation moves pollutants huge distances across the globe. Some varieties of PFAS may degrade slightly over the course of years, until they convert into one of the more stable "terminal PFAS" subgroups, including PFAAs. "To the best of our knowledge PFAAs don't degrade at all under natural environmental conditions," says Robuck. Rather than diluting PFAS to infinitely low concentrations, oceans carry them to remote areas, like the Arctic and Antarctic. Plants, algae and sediment only remove a small fraction of PFAS from the water column. That leaves more to accumulate in animals, reaching concentrations thousands of times higher than surrounding waters.
Giant Antarctic ice shelves facing fracture risk: study - (Reuters) - A platform of ice surrounding Antarctica measuring more than 350,000 square miles (900,000 sq km) is at risk of collapse as the effects of climate change threaten to destabilise it, a new study has shown. The floating ice shelves that extend from the world’s largest ice sheet into the sea could split if fractures on their surface are flooded by meltwater as the climate warms. Sudden loss of these supportive structures could rapidly accelerate the flow of ice into the ocean, raising sea levels around the world, with previous studies suggesting the rise could be as much as one metre by 2100. Ice shelves float on the ocean but are fastened to land and act as stoppers that prevent Antarctic ice sheets, that are as big as the United States and Mexico combined, from sliding into the sea. When they melt away from those anchor points, the flow of ice into the ocean speeds up, accelerating sea level rise. The study led by researchers from Columbia University in the United States and involving Edinburgh University, Utrecht University and Google estimated around 60 percent of the ice-shelf area was vulnerable a process called hydrofracturing. It is a process where meltwater repeatedly refreezes and thaws again, enlarging fractures in those sections of ice and putting them at risk of collapse.
Earth has lost a 'staggering' 28 trillion tonnes of ice to global warming in the last 23 years, UK scientists find - A "staggering" 28 trillion tonnes of ice has disappeared from the surface of the Earth since 1994, a group of UK scientists has found. Scientists from Leeds and Edinburgh universities and University College London analyzed satellite surveys of glaciers, mountains, and ice sheets between 1994 and 2017 to identify the impact of global warming. Their review paper was published in the journal Cryosphere Discussions. Describing the ice loss as "staggering," the group found that melting glaciers and ice sheets could cause sea levels to rise dramatically, possibly reaching a meter (3 feet) by the end of the century. "To put that in context, every centimeter of sea-level rise means about a million people will be displaced from their low-lying homelands," Professor Andy Shepherd, director of Leeds University's Center for Polar Observation and Modelling, told the Guardian. The dramatic loss of ice could have other severe consequences, including major disruption to the biological health of Arctic and Antarctic waters and reducing the planet's ability to reflect solar radiation back into space. The findings match the worst-case-scenario predictions outlined by the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the scientists have confirmed. "In the past researchers have studied individual areas – such as the Antarctic or Greenland – where ice is melting. But this is the first time anyone has looked at all the ice that is disappearing from the entire planet," said Shepherd, according to the Guardian. "What we have found has stunned us." "There can be little doubt that the vast majority of Earth's ice loss is a direct consequence of climate warming," the group wrote.
U.S. Voters Increasingly Concerned About Climate Crisis -The dangers of climate chaos are conspicuous across the country as wildfires rage in the West where prolonged drought has turned some forests into a tinderbox, the Gulf Coast braces for back-to-back tropical storms, and the Midwest picks up the pieces from the derecho storm. Now, more Americans than ever before feel the climate will take on a larger role than ever before in this year's election, according to new research, as The New York Times reported. Climate Insights 2020 is based on survey data collected by Resources for the Future. The report is intended to take into account the manifold issues facing the American public — from the global pandemic to mass unemployment to racial injustice — to provide insights to policy makers and the public about the current sentiments of voters. It turns out that despite the upheaval from the pandemic, the climate crisis is a major issue for the American public."We continue to see huge majorities of Americans believing that climate change is real and a threat, and passion about the issue is at an all-time high. No doubt, this issue will weigh heavily in the minds of a substantial number of Americans when they cast their ballots in November," said Jon Krosnick, a Stanford University professor and report co-author, in a statement. "People are more sure than they've ever been."The report found that the need to address the global pandemic did not become an either/or choice for voters. Voters believe that mitigating the climate crisis needs to be done simultaneously with addressing COVID-19 and the economic fallout, as The New York Times reported.Two years ago, 68 percent of survey respondents said the government needs to do more to address global heating. In 2020, that number was unchanged.As for climate crisis mitigation, 82 percent of survey respondents said the government should act, according to the report."People can walk and chew gum at the same time," said Krosnick, as The New York Times reported."The COVID-19 pandemic has been a unique test for how people feel about climate change when faced with a different global crisis," said Ray Kopp, Resources for the Future vice president for research and policy engagement, in a statement. "The argument that we can't do anything about climate change without crashing the economy, or that we need to just focus on the pandemic and not do anything on climate right now simply doesn't resonate with Americans."
87 lawmakers ask EPA to reverse course after rescinding methane regulations - A coalition of 87 House lawmakers is asking the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to withdraw its latest rules rescinding standards for methane emissions in the oil and gas industry. “Methane is one of the most potent greenhouse gases driving climate change — 84 times more powerful than carbon dioxide in the first two decades after its release,” the members wrote in the letter, which was signed by 85 Democrats and two Republicans. “This anti-science approach to rule making at the EPA is unacceptable," they added. The EPA earlier this month finalized two different rules that rescind methane standards, something the agency’s own analysis finds will increase methane emissions through the end of the decade by 400,000 tons and 450,000 tons, respectively. EPA said it would respond to the letter through the appropriate channels. The agency said earlier this month that its rule would be a help to oil and gas companies, who were expected to monitor and prevent methane leaks throughout the course of the drilling process. “Regulatory burdens put into place by the Obama-Biden Administration fell heavily on small and medium-sized energy businesses," EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a statement. "Today’s regulatory changes remove redundant paperwork, align with the Clean Air Act, and allow companies the flexibility to satisfy leak-control requirements by complying with equivalent state rules." But major oil companies have opposed the new rules. “Direct federal regulation of methane emissions is essential to preventing leaks throughout the industry and protecting the environment,” BP America Chairman and President David Lawler told The Hill in a statement shortly after the new rules were released. “We strongly believe that the best way to tackle this problem is through direct federal regulation, ensuring that everyone in the industry is doing everything they can to eliminate methane leaks," he said. Rescinding the methane standards could make it harder for future administrations to fight climate change, not just because of the release of heat-trapping gases, but by eliminating an avenue for EPA to regulate similar greenhouse gases. The new agency rules set the stage for rollbacks to other pollutants by arguing that the EPA under former President Obama did not sufficiently define what constitutes a “significant” contribution to climate change under the Clean Air Act.
Climate Deniers on Front Line of Battle Over Pennsylvania Joining Cap-and-Trade Program to Slash Carbon Pollution --Pennsylvania, traditionally a battleground state in electoral politics, is currently embroiled in a battle over the state potentially joining a regional program to curb carbon pollution from the power sector. That program, called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), has seen carbon dioxide emissions from power plants slashed by 47 percent over 10 years while generating over $3 billion in revenue. Participating states have then used that revenue to invest in energy efficiency and clean energy programs.Environmental advocates say Pennsylvania’s participation in RGGI would be a “game-changer,” but climate science deniers and other fossil fuel allies claim it would be too costly and kill jobs in a state where the coal and fracked gas industries have long dominated the energy landscape.The state’s government is divided on the issue of Pennsylvania joining RGGI. Governor Tom Wolf, a Democrat, issued an executive order last October directing the state’s Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to begin the process of joining the regional cap-and-trade program and develop carbon pollution regulations within the state. The Republican-controlled legislature opposes Pennsylvania participating in RGGI and has held a series of hearings to argue against the governor’s initiative to join the program. The Pennsylvania House of Representatives even passed a bill (House Bill 2025) in July that would strip DEP’s authority to regulate power-sector carbon pollution.Environmental committees in the state legislature held a pair of hearings this week, one in the House and one in the Senate, featuring witnesses opposed to Pennsylvania joining RGGI. One invited witness in the House hearing on Monday, August 24 — the CO2 Coalition’s Caleb Rossiter — broke with the more than 11,000 scientists who last year declared the planet “is facing a climate emergency” when he falsely claimed, “We are not in a CO2-driven climate crisis.”Rossiter, a professor and consultant with a background in international policy, also said the state’s DEP “traffics in lies, damn lies, statistics … and models.”
Union members join industry groups to rally against state caps on power plant emissions --Union workers — seeking a voice at the table in fossil fuel policies at the state and national level — rallied Wednesday at the coal-fired Cheswick Generating Station. Organized by the Power PA Jobs Alliance, a coalition of labor and business groups spanning Southwestern Pennsylvania, the event targeted the negative impacts of Gov. Tom Wolf’s proposal to join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, or RGGI. The rally in Springdale was kept small — about 50 people — to comply with pandemic public health guidelines. It unfolded as Republicans in Charlotte prepared for the final days of a virtual national convention set to formally launch President Trump into his run for a second term of office. The debate has been framed as placing the need to address the threat of climate change against the fossil fuel industry, which produces 80% of the nation’s energy needs and contributes to carbon emissions. But industry supporters and labor leaders said it is not that simple. They maintained Wolf’s plan, which proposes to lower carbon emissions through an RGGI carbon tax, is a case in point. It would eliminate jobs and put Pennsylvania power generators at a disadvantage against competitors in Ohio and West Virginia, neighboring states that do not plan to join the initiative, industry workers said. It’s a major issue in the region, where coal- and gas-fired power plants dot the landscape.
Navigating The Energy Transition: A Tale Of Two Hemispheres - Between Covid-19 and the imperative to decarbonize, there’s a sense of urgency for the oil and gas industry to reshape that has never been seen before. The contrast between European and American oil majors’ approach to the energy transition couldn’t be clearer. On the surface, it appears they have very different views of what the future energy system will look like.Based on stated intentions, European majors are all in on alternative energy and reducing their carbon footprint. They’ve made big promises, going so far as to take responsibility for eliminating or offsetting carbon emissions created when their customers burn oil and gas to net-zero. They’ve taken bold steps to reorganize their companies to succeed in alternative energy markets and are looking to make big investments in low-carbon energy. If they remain focused on these commitments, it’s hard to see them looking anything like what they do today.For the most part, the U.S. majors are doubling down on their core businesses. They’ve promised and taken action to reduce the carbon-intensity of their operations but avoided commitment to reallocate capital or reorganize in a way that leads them toward being something other than oil and gas companies. Their investments in new energy technologies tend to focus on efficiency, decarbonization solutions and biofuels. Bold steps to move into more emerging and economically challenged energy solutions, like green hydrogen, are not a central focus. Company executives continue to question whether real disruption will occur soon in end-user behavior or energy infrastructure. At Ernst & Young LLP (EY), we’ve analyzed the paths to energy transition in ourCountdown Clock (power and utilities) and Fueling the Future (oil and gas) projects and believe there are a wide range of outcomes in both magnitude and timing of the energy transition from hydrocarbons to green energy. With that said, we can identify some key signposts that may require a quick pivot on strategy. The U.S. election is an obvious one. Depending on who is elected President and which party controls the Senate, the incentives for companies that do business in the U.S. could be very different than they are today. There could be considerable risk of new regulatory and tax burdens on fossil fuels and new incentives and subsidies for renewable energy. Regardless of which way the election goes, the fallout from economic collapse and government deficit spending during the Covid-19 crisis looms large. The overhang of Covid-19 spending and the ongoing health crisis may hamper even the most ambitious climate policy as other immediate priorities and the economic reality take center stage. Either party will be keen to stimulate the economy after the crisis. Infrastructure spending — including renewable energy projects and research and development — could be at the top of the agenda. What remains to be seen is how much pressure there will be to resist new spending and move the government toward a more sustainable fiscal balance.
Standing Rock developing wind farm near Fort Yates - The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe is developing a wind farm, the first of its kind on an Indian reservation in North Dakota.About 60 turbines are slated to dot the Porcupine Hills, a badlands-esque part of Sioux County between Fort Yates and Porcupine. “That’s a really good spot for wind right there,” said Fawn Wasin Zi, chairwoman of SAGE Development Authority, the public power authority the tribe recently formed.Tribal leaders have nixed moving ahead with a wind farm in the past, reaching the conclusion that they would have little ownership of such a facility if a developer were to build one on Standing Rock."We want more ownership up front," Wasin Zi said.To aid in that effort, Standing Rock over the years has secured small grants from the U.S. Department of Energy to study wind development potential on the reservation, as it’s long been something the tribe has wanted to pursue. With that work done and with the right approach moving forward, the tribe now hopes to attract a developer aligned with its values to build the project.Standing Rock is pursuing the idea amid its fight against the Dakota Access Pipeline, which has spurred efforts to harness renewable power on the reservation. A small solar farm already exists in Cannon Ball. Standing Rock is working with advisers, including LIATI Capital, Connexus Capital and Hometown Connections, to make the wind farm come to fruition. The wind farm would be named “Anpetu Wi,” which in Lakota means “the breaking of the new day.” The Lakota people traditionally have prayed at that time, SAGE General Manager Joseph McNeil said. “You’re praying for guidance, you’re praying for wisdom, you’re praying for what’s best for the day for your family, for the people,” he said. “This is really how we look at this project, as a prayer to guide our people into the future, into the new day.” The wind farm would have a 235-megawatt capacity with the potential to expand down the road. SAGE recently filed an interconnection request with the Southwest Power Pool, which oversees the power grid in a number of central states, including in parts of North Dakota.
New York, New Jersey hesitant on offshore grid planning amid federal uncertainty — New York and New Jersey may have their offshore wind goals nailed down, but how to bring the power to land remains very much in the air. Transporting electricity produced by wind turbines off the coasts of New York and New Jersey to shore requires a decision: should states guide a planned grid offshore or let each project developer go it alone? So far the two states have opted to let offshore wind developers plot their own path for transmission lines to connect to their grids. That may ultimately result in higher costs, missed opportunities and an inability to advance future offshore developments. Both states are examining the issue of transmitting offshore wind to shore and plugging it into some of the oldest electric infrastructure in the country. “If we're going to have a complete revolution of where we get our power from, it only makes sense that you're going to plan out how to get that power to shore,” said Janice Fuller, president of New Jersey OceanGrid, a division of transmission developer Anbaric. “It can't be left to this one-at-a-time, we’ll figure it out as we go [process]. ... We only have one opportunity to do this right." With each new award to an offshore wind developer who picks the least-cost and best-located point to hook into the grid, the number of places to interconnect decreases and potential upgrade costs increase. That may raise the bids submitted by wind developers to states seeking thousands of megawatts to support their climate goals. A major barrier to policymakers moving ahead with detailed plans for an offshore grid is the lack of clarity on where new wind projects might be sited. The federal government is slow-walking new leases off the area’s coastline, making any planning nebulous. “It is harder to make material progress on transmission issues on the wet side when you don’t know where the lease areas will be located,” As it stands, there may not be enough capacity in the leased areas to meet the two state’s goals: a combined 16.5 gigawatts by 2035. Setting up an offshore grid to collect electricity generated from multiple wind projects and making proactive onshore upgrades to the grid could ensure lower overall costs for electricity customers, and prevent major additional work on land. Fewer cables could minimize impacts on traditional maritime interests, including shipping and fishing.
FBI Chased Imagined Eco-Activist Enemies, Documents Reveal --- FEDERAL AND STATE law enforcement officers gathered in the Midwest in February 2019 to practice their responses to a fictional threat: wind farm sabotage. They divided into four teams and pretended to be the bad guys, environmental saboteurs targeting the large grids of turbines that turn the wind into electric power. The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Omaha, Nebraska, field office and the Iowa Division of Intelligence and Fusion Center had organized the “red hat” exercise, meant to provide insight into the minds of environmental activist adversaries that didn’t exist. Each team developed an attack plan. One proposed ramming wind turbine infrastructure with a vehicle. Another sought to plant explosives on electrical transformers. And — although U.S. environmental saboteurs tend to not use guns — two of the teams suggested using firearms to attack electrical substations from a distance. The fact that cops themselves planned the attacks may have created a “bias toward the use of firearms,” the FBI later acknowledged in a pair of reports on the exercise obtained by The Intercept. However, the federal agents also concluded that “Environmental Extremists Likely Would Use Firearms To Circumvent Perceived Electrical Infrastructure Site Security Measures.” The exercise was not conducted due to any imminent threat — a carefully noted fact included in the December 2019 and March 2020 reports. “Neither FBI Omaha nor the Iowa DOI/FC has intelligence suggesting environmental extremists intend to attack wind farms in Iowa,” both reports repeatedly state. Why, then, spend public dollars on FBI role-playing? Because the energy industry wanted it. The exercise came “at the request of an USBUS private energy sector partner, following 14 environmental extremist attacks against transportation infrastructure in Iowa that services the energy sector, particularly oil pipelines,” said one of the documents about the exercise. Privately owned and operated companies and industry groups — none of which were named in the reports — were intimately involved in the exercise: An Iowa utility company and a wind energy lobbyist group provided information to help judge the fake attack plans and assess the fake “threat environment,” and an industry representative joined two of the teams, posing as an insider accomplice. Though there was no indication an attack on wind power sites would occur, the report went on to say, if one hypothetically did, it could proliferate into many, with each set of attackers becoming more skilled in evading security and capture. “As attack methods become more sophisticated,” the report warned, “the chance for large-scale failure of the electrical grid becomes more likely.” Law enforcement ought to be on the lookout for activists undergoing gun training, activists in rural locations with large infrastructure, and activists casing wind power sites, the report advised . .
Utilities face growing ransomware threat as hackers improve strategy, execution --The utility sector, including electric, gas and water companies, has a growing ransomware problem, say security experts. Ransomware is a type of financially-motivated malware, which steals or locks up a company's data or computing systems until the victim pays a fee to the hacker. And it is quickly becoming more common across the economy, as deploying the malware becomes easier and hackers learn to right-size their demands. "It's a volume business. A volume, low-margin business," said Miles Keogh, executive director of the National Association of Clean Air Agencies. He advised state public utility commissions on cybersecurity issues until 2017. While there have been a few high-profile cases where companies paid large ransoms to recover their data or systems (Garmin reportedly paid millions this summer), experts say more frequently smaller cases are resolved quietly, including some utilities. "As you can imagine, a lot of organizations, if they pay, they keep it under cover. It's difficult to understand if a victim paid or did not pay — but we are seeing an increase in the number of victims." Victims of ransomware are reticent to talk. The Reading Municipal Light Department in Massachusetts acknowledged earlier this year it had been hit by ransomware. The utility declined to discuss the attack, saying in a statement “the RMLD implements best utility practices.”The Lansing Board of Water & Light in Michigan in 2016 paid a $25,000 ransom to unlock some of its communication systems. The utility declined to comment on the incident. The Edison Electric Institute, which represents investor-owned utilities, said it has seen "an uptick in attempted attacks" in part related to the COVID-19 pandemic, but added that its members are "prepared to mitigate and manage the extra risks." The group did not address whether ransomware costs could be passed on to consumers.
Transition to renewable energy accelerates while Kentucky municipal utilities weigh new fossil fuel investments -- The transformation of America’s energy system is accelerating, with important implications for Kentucky. Renewable energy is competing with natural gas as the cheapest sources of electricity, while U.S. coal power production fell 30% in the first half of 2020. This followed a 16% decline in 2019. Earlier this year, renewables generated more electricity than coal for 40 consecutive days in the U.S. In Kentucky, hundreds of megawatts of coal generation have been retired in the past two years by Owensboro Municipal Utilities and Henderson Municipal Power and Light (HMP&L). In July, HMP&L announced a contract for 50 megawatts of solar to be built in Henderson County, which will supply 20% of its electricity needs. In Indiana, the Northern Indiana Public Service Co. (NIPSCO) is transitioning its power supply from 65% coal to eliminate it by 2028. The utility, which serves 466,000 customers, concluded that its least-cost energy mix would include solar, large-scale battery storage, wind, energy efficiency and some market purchases. It expects to save its customers more than $4 billion over 30 years. The Kentucky Municipal Energy Agency (KYMEA) is presently planning for its future energy needs. It has a 100 megawatt coal contract due to expire in 2022 and is considering whether to enter into new coal or natural gas contracts to replace it. KYMEA serves 11 municipal utilities in Kentucky and has contracts to supply all of the energy needs for Frankfort, Barbourville, Bardwell, Corbin, Falmouth, Madisonville, Paris and Providence. The possibility of KYMEA's entering into new contracts for coal or natural gas power is a significant financial risk for these communities. First, as the cost of wind, solar and battery storage continues to fall, fossil fuel contracts threaten to become an overpriced burden for years to come. Second, there is the question of whether KYMEA needs any additional capacity to replace the expiring coal contract. Analysis has shown KYMEA already has at least 40–60 megawatts of excess power capacity, which currently costs its members millions of dollars annually. The cheapest kilowatt-hour is the one you don’t have to buy. KYMEA’s customers should ensure the agency carefully evaluates future needs and only contracts for new power supplies when they are needed.
Indiana Ports Recording Large Shipments - One of the largest shipments in the 50-year history of the Ports of Indiana is set to arrive this week in Burns Harbor. The port is receiving cargo for a $1 billion power plant under construction in Niles, Michigan. According to the Ports of Indiana, the largest piece is a 613,000-pound steam recovery system that is scheduled to arrive in the deep-water port. The component is 100 feet long, 12 feet high, and 15 feet wide. “We have seen an uptick in large project cargo shipments this year for power plants and wind energy components, but the size and scope of this project make it one of the largest shipments in our port’s 50-year history,” said Port of Indiana-Burns Harbor Port Director Ian Hirt. Once the 300-ton system is offloaded, dockworkers will use an 84-axle, 249-foot-long tractor-trailer to move it to a storage yard, before making the last part of the journey to southwest Michigan. The port authority said the vessel is one of six that arrived this summer with components for the project. The equipment was shipped "halfway around the world," according to port officials on a two-month journey.
Biofuels group blasts new ethanol-waiver requests - The number of small oil refineries asking to get out of a requirement to blend ethanol ballooned to 98 after federal officials said they would wait until after the election to make a decision. Emily Skor is CEO of Growth Energy, a biofuels trade organization. (Photo courtesy of Growth Energy) Should President Donald Trump lose in his bid for re-election, he would still have a couple of months to act on the waivers, which small refineries have requested because they view the ethanol requirement as a financial hardship. Ethanol interests have said the waivers reduce demand for the corn-based fuel additive, endangering an industry central to the Midwest economy. Reduced travel due to the coronavirus pandemic has reduced demand for both oil and ethanol. Industry group Growth Energy on Friday said the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) confirmed nine new petitions from refiners. A full-scale fight against the waivers has included pleas from U.S. Sens. Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley, two of Trump’s GOP colleagues from Iowa. U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne, D-Iowa, has asked the EPA inspector general to investigate whether the EPA’s action have violated federal biofuels laws. The requests include 67 that ask for retroactive permission to sidestep the blending or the purchase of credits, something that the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association and farm groups have strongly opposed. Head shot of Cindy Axne U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne is a Democrat who represents Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District. “Oil companies are pouring gasoline on the fire, while the EPA seems content to watch it burn,” said Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor said in a statement. “President Trump needs to put his foot down and demand the EPA send a clear signal to struggling rural communities that the demand destruction is over.” “EPA must deny these exemptions without further delay,” Skor added. Ernst pushed Trump on the issue when he visited Cedar Rapids Tuesday. “I’ll speak to them myself,” Trump told Ernst. “I’ll do it myself.” Trump didn’t elaborate as to what he would say to EPA officials.
Biden says supports ethanol, hits Trump on handling of U.S. biofuel laws - (Reuters) - Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Tuesday threw his support behind U.S. laws that require oil refiners to blend biofuels into the nation’s fuel pool and criticized the Trump administration for its handling of the mandates. “A Biden-Harris Administration will promote and advance renewable energy, ethanol, and other biofuels to help rural America and our nation’s farmers, and will honor the critical role the renewable fuel industry plays in supporting the rural economy and the leadership role American agriculture will play in our fight against climate change,” Biden said in a statement. The statement on Tuesday was the strongest commitment the Biden campaign has made to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) yet. The regulation requires refiners to blend billions of gallons of biofuels into their fuel or buy credits from those that do. Small refiners that prove the rules would financially harm them can apply for exemptions. Those waivers have been a touchstone of controversy the last few years as the Trump administration has more than quadrupled the number of exemptions issued. Biofuel advocates say the waivers hurt demand for corn-based ethanol, but the oil industry argues against that claim. The debate gained steam this year after a Denver-based appeals court ruled that waivers granted to small refineries after 2010 had to take the form of an “extension.” Most recipients of waivers in recent years have not continuously received them, casting doubt on the whole program. The administration has not yet announced how it will handle the decision. In the meantime, refiners are requesting retroactive waivers from the administration in hopes of coming into compliance with the court ruling.
How Maryland’s Preference for Burning Trash Galvanized Environmental Activists in Baltimore - Shashawnda Campbell became an environmental activist at 15, when she learned that a company had proposed building the country's largest waste-to-energy incinerator less than a mile from her high school, in the Curtis Bay section of Baltimore. Waste-to-energy incinerators gained traction in the 1980s, as an environmentally-friendly alternative to throwing trash in landfills by burning it and converting it to energy. But by some metrics, burning trash can be even dirtier than burning coal, emitting lead, mercury, nitrogen oxides, dioxins and particulate matter associated with increased risk of cardiac and respiratory disease. And the facility first proposed by Energy Answers International in 2009 was designed to incinerate 4,000 tons a day. "That just didn't sit right with us as youth," said Campbell, now 23. "We knew that we had to do something." By the time Campbell and several classmates at Benjamin Franklin High School finished their fight, they had come up against then-Gov. Martin O'Malley, the Maryland legislature and a state policy that incentivized and subsidized the incineration of trash. In fact, the city had come to rely on an existing incineration at an existing facility called Wheelabrator Baltimore to such an extent, some environmentalists said, that residential recycling rates were significantly lower than in other parts of the country. Wheelabrator, still in operation, remains Baltimore's single largest standing source of air pollution, according to an analysis of Environmental Protection Agency data by the Energy Justice Network, a nonprofit organization dedicated to the "grassroots energy agenda," according to its website. The massive, aging incinerator is also the focus of intensifying environmental opposition that aims not only to shut it down but to end what activists see as the state's bizarre policy preference for the incineration of trash over more sustainable alternatives.
Exelon: Massachusetts' gas and oil-fired Mystic power units to close in 2021 and 2024 - Exelon will close one of the nation’s longest running power plants within four years. The dual-fuel Mystic Generating Station, in one form or another, has been providing power to the Boston area since the 1940s. Exelon took ownership of the gas and petroleum-fired facilities as part of its merger with Constellation in 2012. The first Mystic gas-fired units have been retired for some time, but Units 7, 8 and 9 are now being phased out. Unit 7 and Mystic Jet will cease operations next year, while Units 8 and 9 will be closed when the cost of service agreement expires in May 2024. The Exelon statement partially blamed the decision on changes by the independent system operator ISO-New England which it said negatively impacted the station’s reliability benefits. “We appreciate FERC’s consideration of our complaint that challenged the process ISO-NE is using to replace Mystic’s reliability benefits to Boston, and while we disagree with their order, we accept it,: reads the Exelon Generation statement. “As a result of the order, we currently do not see a path to continue commercial electric generation at Mystic Generating Station.”
Anderson County residents fight over TVA's toxic coal ash waste -Anderson County resident Loni Arwood says she doesn’t need a study to convince her the Tennessee Valley Authority is contaminating her community with its radioactive coal ash dust.“I’ve seen the stuff flying through the air at the (Kid’s Palace playground) ... where the children play ball,” she said, referring to a children’s recreational area located less than 100 yards from a coal ash dump at TVA’s Bull Run Fossil Plant in Claxton. “Why hasn’t that been shut down? Can anyone tell me that?”Arwood isn't alone in her complaints about TVA’s handling of the millions of tons of toxic coal ash waste it produces and stores at the Bull Run plant — located next to Kid’s Palace and less than a mile from the Claxton Elementary School — and the utility’s current plan to leave all that waste behind when it shutters the plant in 2023.More than 50 residents, including several Oak Ridge scientists and researchers, turned out earlier this month for a virtual community meeting to voice concerns about TVA’s coal ash waste in Anderson County.“Coal ash is the largest unregulated radioactive waste in the United States,” Oak Ridge resident and scientific researcher Bob Hatcher told attendees at the virtual Bull Run Neighbors community group meeting. “This is a toxic material without any question. There are radiological elements in it, despite the denials of TVA.” TVA has claimed for decades its coal ash — the byproduct of burning coal to produce electricity — was mostly “inert” dust, no more dangerous to breathe than dirt and no more radioactive than low-sodium table salt.Although TVA no longer compares its coal ash waste to dirt in public statements, the utility says the substance is not classified as a hazardous waste under Environmental Protection Agency rules.TVA has repeatedly said its coal ash waste has been tested by the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation and other agencies, all of whom have concluded it is not a radiological threat.But an ongoing Knox News investigation revealed TVA has known for decades its coal ash waste contained radium — a radioactive heavy metal dangerous to breathe or ingest — and a slew of other cancer-causing toxins, including arsenic, cadmium and strontium.
Consultant to review utility CEO pay after Trump criticism (AP) — The Tennessee Valley Authority has hired a new independent consultant to take a fresh look into its executive compensation after President Donald Trump earlier this month blasted the CEO as being “ridiculously overpaid,” the federal utility’s board chairman said Thursday. At a virtual meeting, the board announced that hiring a new consultant, Erin Bass-Goldberg of FW Cook, would be one of multiple steps taken after Trump put the agency in his crosshairs. Trump fired the former board chairman and another board member earlier this month and called for the CEO’s replacement and the position’s pay to be capped at $500,000. The board also provided more detail about plans to reverse course on the hiring of foreign labor for information technology jobs, which piqued Trump’s interest enough that in early August he invited the workers who would be replaced to the White House. With the pay-scale review in place, CEO Jeff Lyash could have a breather from Trump’s wrath. Results are expected before TVA’s November board meeting. The TVA Act in federal law already requires hiring an independent consultant to review executive compensation, Board Chairman John Ryder told reporters. But the utility is switching up firms to provide a “new set of eyes on the problem,” he said. “We have reported that back to the White House and the indications we have is that we are approaching this in the right way,” Ryder said of the pay review. In his first six months on the job, Lyash’s compensation was $8.1 million, making him the highest paid federal employee.
Dozen urge state to hold KU accountable on Herrington Lake - (WTVQ) – A dozen environmental leaders and residents on the shores of Herrington Lake urged the state Energy and Environment Cabinet Thursday to hold Kentucky Utilities accountable and make the utility giant do more to clean up the pollution it has caused in the lake from its 65-year-old E.W. Brown power plant. - Advertisement - The comments came during a 65-minute-long virtual public hearing, the first of its kind held by the Cabinet. While 12 people actually spoke, as many as 70 tuned in, including officials from the state and environmental groups and KU. One resident said she ad her husband bought their cabin on the lake 25 years ago and called it their, “Slice of heaven,” attracting visitors from as far away as London, England. “We would like to see real accountability,” she said, noting they’d like to be able to pass the cabin on to their grandchildren with confidence the lake will be safe. “You’ve got to understand how important Herrington Lake is to people of all walks of life,” said Emma Anderson, a former student at Centre College in Danville. “We don’t think what they have done is enough,” added Brett Warner. “They need to clean up the mess and stop all the mess-making by KU,” another resident stated. Environmental groups have challenged KU’s plan for cleaning up coal ash from the plant that has leaked into the lake. They argue fish deformities ad other problems are the result of chemicals leaking into the water. May of the residents said they won’t eat fish caught in its waters.
Duke Energy Asks Regulators To Let it Charge Customers For Coal Ash Costs Duke Energy is urging state regulators to approve rate increases at its two North Carolina electric utilities, including money to pay for cleanups of toxic coal ash. Duke treasurer Karl Newlin told the North Carolina Utilities Commission Monday that if the company isn't allowed to recover coal ash cleanup costs, it could lead to a downgrade in its credit ratings and scare off investors. His testimony came during the first day of a public hearing on the proposed rate increases that are being conducted online. Coal ash is the residue left after burning coal to make electricity and contains heavy metals that can cause cancer. Duke's critics say that the company and its investors should absorb the multibillion-dollar cost to clean up millions of tons of coal ash that have piled up at its North Carolina coal plants for decades. But Newlin argued that if that happens, "the end result will be a marked deterioration in the companies' credit quality, which will inevitably lead to a higher cost of capital as the companies seek to attract investors to fund their extensive capital needs." "The deterioration in credit quality will be exacerbated by more favorable regulatory treatment for its utilities in neighboring jurisdictions," Newlin said. "Investors vote with their wallets and will go elsewhere if the returns they see from the companies do not meet their requirements or they do not believe that credit quality will be maintained over the life to that investment." Duke wants to raise revenues by an average of about 6% in its central North Carolina territory, Duke Energy Carolinas, which includes Charlotte. And it's seeking an average 15.6% increase for Duke Energy Progress, which includes eastern North Carolina and parts of the mountains. Residential customers who use 1,000 kilowatt-hours per month would see their monthly bills rise from $102.71 to $108.43 in the Duke Energy Carolinas area, and from $120.44 to $137.73 in Duke Energy Progress territory, according to the utilities commission. Duke has reached agreements with the state's consumer advocate as well as business and environmental groups that could reduce the amount of the rate increases, said Duke spokesperson Meredith Archie. "However, we have not calculated the rate impacts of the proposed partial settlement since it will ultimately be reviewed and approved by the NCUC, along with the unresolved issues," she said. Coal ash is among those unresolved issues. In 2018, regulators allowed Duke to recover coal ash costs, minus $100 million in penalties.
Lehi City Council votes to back out of nuclear power project contract -The Lehi City Council voted unanimously Tuesday to withdraw the city from a multiagency nuclear power project that would provide nuclear power to cities across Utah, citing concerns over increasing costs.The Carbon Free Power Project is an initiative by Oregon-based NuScale Power, the Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems and the United States Department of Energy to build a small modular reactor power plant at the Idaho National Laboratory.The power plant, which NuScale Power expects to be running by 2029 and fully operational by 2030, would provide clean energy to 34 municipalities in Utah, Idaho and New Mexico.The project would use air, not water, to cool steam produced by the power plant and would cut water use by 90%, according to a blog post about the project. Earlier this month, the Utah Taxpayer Association called on cities to withdraw from the project ahead of the Sept. 14 deadline after a closed-door virtual town hall meeting on July 21 where officials warned of project delays, increased costs to cities and towns involved, and “dependence on unpredictable federal subsidies.” Lehi has already spent $455,000 on the project, according to Joel Eves, city power director, who told the council that there hadn’t been “a lot of movement” in the two years since Lehi entered the contract in getting subscriptions for the power project, which he called “concerning.” “A big piece of this is project subscription,” Eves said. “And that makes us nervous. It seems like we’re going at this alone with the UAMPS members.” In November 2017, the total cost of the project was estimated at $3.6 billion. By November 2019, that number had increased to $4.2 billion. By July, the estimated cost had gone up to $6.1 billion. That would cost Lehi $466 million at the city’s current subscription levels, Eves said. UAMPS would be responsible for paying $4.8 billion, while the DOE would pay $1.3 billion and NuScale Power would pay $5 million.
NRC board extends Seabrook plant's license with conditions relating to concrete testing - — The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Atomic Safety and Licensing Board has accepted the Seabrook nuclear plant's concrete monitoring program after several months of deadline extensions. The licensing board made its ruling on Friday, Aug. 21, and is treating it as non-public to allow the parties an opportunity to review it and propose any redactions. A public version of the ruling, which was nearly 200 pages long, will be issued by Sept. 11. The board's decision was originally supposed to be issued within 90 days of a Sept. 24, 2019, hearing in Newburyport about concrete degradation at the Seabrook power plant, but was extended multiple times. The plant sits about 17 miles northwest — as the seagull flies — from parts of Gloucester and Rockport, Massachusetts. During the hearing, Amesbury non-profit C-10 called for the revocation of the plant's license renewal. Concrete degradation was discovered at the plant in 2010. It results from an alkali-silica reaction, or ASR, a chemical process that causes small cracks. In a press release from C-10, Natlie Hildt-Treat, the organization's executive director, said that while the board accepted NextEra's concrete testing program, it did so with "several important conditions that will ensure the health and safety of the public." “NextEra Energy Seabrook has been sent back to the drawing board with this extremely detailed ruling,” said Treat in the release. According to the release from C-10, the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board's order directs Seabrook Station to "conduct much more frequent and detailed monitoring and engineering evaluations in a number of situations, in some cases increasing the frequency of testing from the proposed five to ten years, up to six-month intervals. It also orders NextEra to conduct a petrographic analysis on each core sample extracted from the plant’s concrete in order to detect internal microcracking and delamination. This technique was urged by C-10’s expert witness, Dr. Victor Saouma, who is one of the world’s leading authorities on the condition of alkali-silica reaction, or 'ASR.'"
Duane Arnold nuclear plant won't restart after Iowa derecho damage Duane Arnold Energy Center officials decided to close the nuclear facility permanently after experiencing significant damage from the Aug. 10 derecho, a NextEra Energy Resources spokesman said Monday. “After conducting a complete assessment of the damage caused by recent severe weather, NextEra Energy Resources has made the decision not to restart the reactor,” spokesman Peter Robbins said. Duane Arnold, the only nuclear power plant in Iowa, was scheduled to be decommissioned Oct. 30. The derecho caused “extensive” damage to the facility’s cooling towers, Robbins said. Replacing the cooling towers with fewer than three months until decommissioning was “not feasible,” he added. Robbins said NextEra Energy Resources will “continue to work with all our employees to minimize the impact of this situation on them and their families.” Before the derecho, employees were taking early retirements, looking for other jobs within the company or staying at NextEra to manage the decommissioned site. Those options remain intact, Robbins said.
Bill Gates Next Project- Building Nuclear Power Plants Across The Pacific Northwest - Here comes the next Bill Gates project which, like his others, aims to solve climate change and save the planet. However, this time, some of the critics of Gates & Co.'s approach have warned that the advanced nuclear power plants he's now trying to build (which would "supplement" the northwest's power grid) might be vulnerable to terror attacks due to high levels of enriched uranium. In a report published Thursday, Reuters revealed, for the first time, a new campaign by the Gates-controlled TerraPower LLC (Gates is chairman of the company's board) to build commercial advanced nuclear energy plants called "Natrium" in the US later in the decade. The project will focus on the Pacific Northwest, where Gates has won the backing of three major utilities in the region, including Berkshire Hathaway-owned PacifiCorp (of course Gates' best buddy Warren Buffett was more than willing to help out, we imagine).After President Trump scrapped a plan to build these advanced power plants in and around Beijing, Gate's TerraPower was forced to shift its focus back to the US, according to Reuters. Gates had initially hoped to build an experimental nuclear plant near Beijing with state-owned China National Nuclear Corp. But last year, TerraPower was forced to seek new partners after the Trump administration restricted nuclear deals with China.If the initial plants are a success, the company hopes to build them across the US, and abroad, hoping to provide a means of buttressing energy grids that are increasingly dependent on renewable power like solar and wind. By mid-century, "we would see hundreds of these reactors around the world, solving multiple different energy needs,” said Chris Levesque, the president and CEO of TerraPower, said. The 345-megawatt plants would be cooled by liquid sodium and cost about $1 billion each, and the complex technology would allow for the introduction of nuclear energy in countries that don't have those resources like...say...Iran?
NRC monitoring US nuclear power plants in projected path of Hurricane Laura — US Nuclear Regulatory Commission resident inspectors stationed at nuclear power plants in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas are monitoring preparations by utility operators for Hurricane Laura, NRC said in an Aug. 26 post on its Facebook page. "[P]lans are in place to dispatch additional staff to any of the sites if needed," NRC said. "Current projections show Hurricane Laura making landfall almost on the Texas/Louisiana border, as either a Category 3 or 4 hurricane tonight," the agency said. That is almost directly between Entergy's 1,222-MW Waterford plant in Killona, Louisiana, and STP Nuclear Operating Co.'s 2,624-MW South Texas Project plant in Bay City, Texas, NRC said. "The storm is not expected to have a significant impact on either site," the agency said NRC spokesman Scott Burnell said Aug. 24 that every nuclear plant site has its own severe weather-related operational criteria. "Many plants include ... consideration of plant shutdown 24 hours before [the] onset of hurricane-force winds," Burnell said. NRC is also monitoring "several other plants that could be impacted by heavy rain," the Facebook post said. They include Entergy's 992-MW River Bend plant in St. Francisville, Louisiana, 1,498-MW Grand Gulf in Port Gibson, Mississippi, and 1,968-MW Arkansas Nuclear One in Russellville, Arkansas. Grand Gulf is currently shut for repairs. Entergy spokesman Mike Bowling said Aug. 26 that Entergy's nuclear plants "continue to function normally, with no immediate threats to operations." Operators are conducting walk-downs, verifying communications systems, and securing any loose equipment that could be blown away by high winds, he said. "We continue to monitor the storms in conjunction with local, state, and federal authorities, to ensure our response team members have safe access routes to the plants," Bowling said.
US nuclear reactors in Hurricane Laura's path remain at full capacity — Nuclear reactors in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas remained at 100% capacity early Aug. 27, even as Hurricane Laura made landfall at roughly 1 am CT as a Category 4 hurricane. Entergy's 1,222-MW Waterford plant in Louisiana and 1,968-MW Arkansas Nuclear One in Arkansas were at full power, according to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's daily reactor status report STP Nuclear Operating Co.'s 2,624-MW South Texas Project in Texas also was at full power, NRC said. Entergy's 992-MW River Bend plant in Louisiana was at 87% capacity as it continues a power ascension after being shut Aug. 21 for repairs, the agency said. The company's 1,498-MW Grand Gulf is shut for repairs. Entergy spokesman Mike Bowling said Aug. 27 that the storm will travel "close to" Arkansas Nuclear One, so the company continues to monitor the storm "to ensure our people have safe access to work." Bowling said Entergy's operating reactors "all continue to function normally ... we've had no operational issues." NRC said in a Facebook post Aug. 26 that resident inspectors at the plants are monitoring preparations by utility operators. "[P]lans are in place to dispatch additional staff to any of the sites if needed," NRC said. The agency is also monitoring plants "that could be impacted by heavy rain," the Facebook post added.
After 48 Years, Democrats Endorse Nuclear Energy In Platform - It took five decades, but the Democratic Party has finally changed its stance on nuclear energy. In its recently released party platform, the Democrats say they favor a “technology-neutral” approach that includes “all zero-carbon technologies, including hydroelectric power, geothermal, existing and advanced nuclear, and carbon capture and storage.” That statement marks the first time since 1972 that the Democratic Party has said anything positive in its platform about nuclear energy. The change in policy is good — and long overdue — news for the American nuclear-energy sector and for everyone concerned about climate change. The Democrats’ new position means that for the first time since Richard Nixon was in the White House, both the Republican and Democratic parties are officially on record in support of nuclear energy. That’s the good news. The less-than-good news is that the Democratic Party platform pledges to deploy outlandish quantities of new solar and wind capacity and do so in just five years. Further, the platform ignores the amount of land needed for that effort and how it would end up driving up the cost of electricity for low- and middle-income consumers. (More on that in a moment.) The last time the Democratic Party’s platform contained a positive statement about nuclear energy was in 1972, when the party said it supported “greater research and development” into “unconventional energy sources” including solar, geothermal, and “a variety of nuclear power possibilities to design clean breeder fission and fusion techniques.”
Ohio AG Yost considering lawsuit to halt nuclear plant surcharge | The Blade — Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost on Wednesday said he’s prepared to seek an injunction that would stop the imposition of a ratepayer surcharge flowing to two northern Ohio nuclear power plants at the center of the $61-million statehouse corruption scandal.Mr. Yost, a Republican, indicated he’s considering moving ahead with a lawsuit as the Ohio Senate prepares to return to Columbus next week to discuss repealing or replacing the energy law, House Bill 6, at the heart of the scandal.Pressuring lawmakers to act quickly on what will be a complex process, Mr. Yost said he could file a lawsuit as soon as September if the legislature doesn’t move swiftly to repeal the law. He declined to set a deadline or elaborate on what might trigger him to file, except to say he supports a repeal.“I’m hoping they get a repeal done. If they don’t though, my office is preparing legal action and among the things we’re going to ask for is an injunction to halt the imposition of a surcharge, its collection, or its disbursement to the FirstEnergy successor,” Mr. Yost said.“We think there are ample grounds and the statute to ask a court to intervene and to stop that.”It’s not clear what an immediate injunction would mean for the Davis-Besse nuclear plant near Oak Harbor or the Perry nuclear plant east of Cleveland. The two financially-strapped plants directly employ about 1,400 people in northern Ohio. Elected officials in the two counties where they’re located have called on lawmakers to maintain the law, arguing the unethical way it came about doesn’t outweigh its benefit to the community.A spokesman for nuclear-plant operator Energy Harbor declined comment.Lawmakers have debated how to handle the controversial law since former House Speaker Larry Householder (R., Glenford) and four others were charged in July with conspiring to funnel $61 million from FirstEnergy and related interests to help elect Mr. Householder’s allies who would then elevate him to speaker. The political power he gained was used to pass the energy law.Its key feature is a new surcharge to FirstEnergy Solutions’ customers monthly bills beginning in 2021 to generate $150 million a year to support the struggling nuclear plants and $20 million a year for solar projects.House Republicans and Democrats have introduced separate repeal bills that would block the new subsidies while restoring mandates that utilities obtain more of their power from renewable sources.A bipartisan measure doing the same thing has been introduced in the Senate.Mr. Yost said a lawsuit would stop a billion-dollar revenue stream from flowing to the nuclear plants while lawmakers deal with the fallout from the corruption scandal.
Ohio Senate likely to repeal HB 6 before Election Day - The Columbus Dispatch - Republicans in at least one branch of the Ohio legislature are returning to Columbus before the election so they can consider overturning controversial House Bill 6. “The Senate will be meeting in September, and we are likely to add additional session dates to the schedule. One of the issues we will be considering is a potential repeal of HB 6,” confirmed Senate President Larry Obhof, R-Medina.Holding a session in September would show voters that the GOP-dominated legislature is taking action — just before early voting begins in early October — on the legislation at the heart of what federal authorities say is a $60 million racketeering scheme to return former House Speaker Larry Householder to power and to bail out Ohio’s two nuclear power plants. It is unclear whether the House will take similar action. Also uncertain is a timetable for a possible replacement — or whether the $1 billion bailout will be replaced at all.The assessments on Ohioans’ utility bills for the two power plants is to start in January. But it seems unlikely lawmakers will want to abandon the campaign trail long enough to take the time necessary to consider possible alternatives before the election. And Obhof opposes significant legislation in the year-ending lame-duck session.
Ohio nuclear bailout: Vistra Energy joins effort to repeal it - Cincinnati Business Courier -- The owner of two Cincinnati-area power plants has joined a coalition to repeal House Bill 6, the controversial $1 billion bailout of nuclear power plants.
Ohio Elections Commission to consider sanctioning failed campaign to repeal nuclear bailout bill - cleveland.com - The failed 2019 campaign to repeal House Bill 6, the Ohio nuclear bailout law that’s now at the center of a federal corruption investigation, is facing possible sanctions this week from the Ohio Elections Commission for not disclosing who funded the campaign.Elections commission members on Thursday will consider a complaint against Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts, the well-financed political group that attempted to repeal HB6 through a citizen’s referendum. The group disbanded late last year, shortly after it missed a legal deadline to collect the hundreds of thousands of signatures needed to place the the issue on the ballot for a statewide vote.Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts never filed a state campaign-finance report detailing the group’s 2019 expenditures, which included ads, legal expenses and paid petition workers. That led Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose’s staff to refer the case to the elections commission in March.Elections commission staff now is recommending fining the group $5,225, or $25 for each day that has passed since Jan. 31, the deadline under state law for campaign groups that performed political work during 2019.The elections commission could fine the group up to $100 a day, said Elections Commission Director Phil Richter. But since Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts, formed shortly after the passage of HB6 in July 2019, is considered a first-time offender, precedent is to consider a lower-end penalty, Richter said.Gene Pierce, a Republican political consultant who served as a spokesman for the repeal campaign, declined to comment for this story, as did the group’s campaign manager, Brandon Lynaugh. House Bill 6 created subsidies worth more than $1 billion for two Ohio nuclear plants, as well as funding for three solar projects and two coal plants owned by a consortium of Ohio utility companies. The legislation was the subject of a massive lobbying campaign from secretive groups on both sides of the issue. The bill came under renewed public scrutiny last month, when federal agents arrested House Speaker Larry Householder, alleging he corruptly agreed to pass the legislation for FirstEnergy Corp. in exchange for $60 million to help Householder so he could push for the bailout legislation. Federal prosecutors have alleged FirstEnergy and related companies secretly spent tens of millions of dollars to get the get the bill passed, which included running ads pressuring legislators to sign it, hiring campaign workers to interfere with the repeal campaign’s efforts to gather signatures and running ads discouraging voters from signing the repeal petitions. The company and its affiliated political groups structured their spending to make it impossible or difficult to track.
Environmental groups challenge Ohio gas storage permits (AP) — Environmental groups have asked an Ohio appeals court to revoke drilling permits granted by a state agency for construction of massive underground salt caverns to store natural gas liquids along the Ohio River, according to a lawsuit. The complaint filed Thursday with the 10th District Court of Appeals in Columbus accuses the Ohio Department of Natural Resources of not following its own rules by failing to require public notice of company drilling applications, create draft copies of the permits or allow for a public comment period before granting permits July 20. The lawsuit asks the appeals court to order ODNR to restart the application process and follow its rules. ODNR spokesperson Stephanie O’Grady said the department does not comment on pending litigation. The caverns will be created by injecting millions of gallons of fresh water underground into an underground salt formation in Ohio’s Monroe County. After construction, Powhatan Salt Company will turn the project over to Denver-based based company Mountaineer NGL Storage to store ethane, propane and butane, which are byproducts of natural gas drilling. Salt solution created during construction would be transported by a pipeline beneath the Ohio River to an alkaline plant in West Virginia. Mountaineer NGL Storage is finalizing a deal with a U.S. subsidiary of a Thailand-based company, PTT Global Chemical America, to provide ethane storage for a proposed multi-billion dollar petrochemical plant that would produce plastic pellets in nearby Belmont County. Whether the petrochemical plant will be built is uncertain. PTT Global’s partner, a U.S. subsidiary of South Korea’s Daelim Industrial Co., quit the project in mid-July. A long-delayed decision on whether PTT will move forward with a new partner is expected sometime next year. The Ohio lawsuit was filed on behalf of individuals by Concerned Ohio River Residents, FreshWater Accountability Project, Buckeye Environmental Network, Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition and Sierra Club. The complaint says construction and operation of the caverns could lead to spills that would harm private and public water supplies, become a hazard for “potential explosiveness” after natural gas liquids are stored, and would create an eyesore along the Ohio River.
Marietta residents plan virtual hearing on fracking - Disposal Solutions in Marietta applied for a permit for a docking facility, where locals believe fracking wastewater will be offloaded. The wastewater will be disposed of at DeepRock. Devola resident George Banziger said he was unhappy with a virtual public meeting with the Huntington District, U.S. Corps of Engineers on Aug. 7. “People were required to register for the meeting, which was on a Friday and not convenient for most people,” he explained. “The meeting time was changed at the last minute.” He said after an introduction that lasted half an hour, the 13 people who were able to connect each had two minutes to speak. “Then the meeting ended early,” Banziger said. “It was not on Zoom, but was on a platform that several people had trouble getting on.” He said he was also frustrated no representation from DeepRock was in the meeting to answer questions. As a response, a virtual Peoples Hearing will be held from 6 to 8 p.m. Thursday through Zoom. It will be live streamed on YouTube and Facebook live and a hard copy transcript will be sent via certified mail to the Corps of Engineers. Beverly Reed, community organizer for Concerned Ohio River Residents, said the Peoples Hearing is something the citizen advocacy groups have put together. She said those who spoke at the Aug. 7 hearing, as well as those who didn’t get a chance to attend are invited to register for the meeting at bit.ly/DeepRockPeoplesHearing. “We’re going to record the Zoom call and send it to the Army Corps so we can feel heard and know they’ve heard our concerns,” she explained. She added an official complaint was sent in by the group’s attorneys, Fair Shake Environmental Legal Service, as many people were shut out of the meeting.
Pennsylvania Sees More Natural Gas Production Declines Amid Price-Related Curtailments Pennsylvania’s unconventional natural gas producers continued to curtail volumes in the second quarter as the state reported only the second sequential production decline in more than three years. Unconventional natural gas production was 1.717 Tcf in 2Q2020, down from 1.766 Tcf in 1Q2020, when the state also reported a quarter/quarter production decline, according to data released by the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Second quarter volumes grew by only 2.8% year/year, the lowest growth rate in more than three years. Producers have made price-related curtailments since the beginning of the year as they’ve grappled with low natural gas demand in the United States and across the world. The IFO said from 1Q2019 to 2Q2020, the average price of natural gas in Pennsylvania declined by 49.7%. Average prices in the state were $1.36/MMbtu in the second quarter, down 36.6% from the year-ago period. There were 113 new horizontal wells spud in 2Q2020, a decline of 51 wells from the same time last year and the fifth consecutive quarter in which there was a year/year decline in new wells spud. There were also 9,584 horizontal producing wells in the second quarter, which account for over 99% of unconventional production. That’s up 7.7% from 2Q2019. It was the smallest year-over-year increase in quarterly horizontal producing wells on record, the IFO said.
Sunoco asks Environmental Hearing Board to block new DEP shutdown of troubled Chester County drilling site - Sunoco filed a legal challenge against Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection on Monday, calling on the Environmental Hearing Board to overturn the DEP’s recent shutdown of a construction site for the controversial Mariner East pipeline project. The company argued that the DEP was “improper” and “arbitrary” in issuing an Aug. 20 order that shut down operations of a drilling site in Chester County’s West Whiteland Township, an area where fragile limestone geology has caused repeated technical problems for the pipeline. Sunoco said it would be irreparably harmed if it is forced to continue the shutdown, which DEP said was prompted by a “turbid groundwater discharge” at a horizontal directional drilling site at Shoen Road and Route 100 that officials have shut down twice before over the last three years because of the project’s impact on residential water wells. DEP issued a notice of violation after the discharge at the site, known as HDD 360, on Aug. 8. The department said the discharge was related to construction activities, and was designated as an “inadvertent return” so drilling could not restart without DEP’s permission. Even for a pipeline project that has been plagued with delays since it started in February 2017, construction in West Whiteland has been exceptionally problematic. In July 2017, about a dozen families experienced cloudy water or loss of supply from their private wells after Sunoco’s drilling near Shoen Road punctured an aquifer. In 2018, a series of sinkholes opened up on a pipeline construction site at nearby Lisa Drive, a suburban development, forcing state officials to order a shutdown at that location. In the latest incident, Sunoco argued that a prolonged shutdown would harm the public interest because groundwater flowback will occur, the borehole will be lost, and future drilling will have to retrace ground already covered. The company also accused DEP of contradicting its own letters of June 29 and July 2, which approved a restart of HDD 360 after an earlier shutdown. “It is of utmost importance to complete construction promptly at the HDD 360 work location, important not only for SPLP’s interests, but also for the interests of the public at large to complete construction at a location which has been in-progress now for over three years,” the company said in a seven-page petition. It urged the Board, a quasi-judicial body that hears complaints against the DEP, to issue an order of “supersedeas” that would block the latest order. The DEP said it does not comment on matters in litigation. Last Thursday, the department fined Sunoco $355,000 for spills of drilling mud in eight counties in 2018 and 2019. Those incidents were among more than 100 for which the DEP has issued notices of violation since the project began in early 2017.
PENNSYLVANIA: Judge overturns shutdown of $3B pipeline project -- Wednesday, August 26, 2020 --A judge has overruled Pennsylvania environmental regulators and allowed Energy Transfer LP to resume underground drilling for the Mariner East 2 pipeline in the location of a reported spill.
W.Va. ends plans for long-awaited power plant in Brooke County | WTOV — A power plant in the works for Brooke County that would provide almost a billion dollars in revenue for the area is no longer going to be built. But local leaders aren’t giving up on the fight for the project. Last week, the state of West Virginia backed out of a $5 million loan guarantee to support the project. And now leaders fear they will lose the project to a neighboring state. "If it doesn't, it’s going to move across one of the state borders to another state, and we are going to lose out on it. So it’s very important to West Virginia," Delegate Randy Swartzmiller said. The plant no longer coming to the area means 1,000 fewer jobs for construction -- and more. "A million dollars up front to the county commission for services that the county provides, ambulance services, sheriff’s deputies. Over 100,000 to the board of education every year for students, a $3.5 million investment to the Brooke County Service District," Sen. Ryan Weld said. There’s more. "It would also allow natural gas producers that are here in Brooke County to put their gas out on the Rover Pipeline and sell it across state lines instead of having to transport it by truck like you see now," Brooke County Commissioner AJ Thomas said. And the reason for the state leaving the project? "I think the state had some concerns regarding whether or not the majority of the construction workers were going to be West Virginia residents," Weld said. But commissioners have been writing letters to the state and are urging them to support the project. The county is united in wanting the power plant, and it is willing to continue fighting for it.
Justice questions need for new Brooke County power plant — Gov. Jim Justice said Wednesday that the Brooke County ESC natural gas power plant project is not dead, but the coal magnate questioned the need for the plant, the loan guarantee request, where the gas would come from and how many jobs the plant would create. Speaking Wednesday during a virtual press briefing from the Capitol, Justice said the Department of Commerce still needed questions answered regarding the Energy Solutions Consortium Brooke County Power project, a proposed 830-megawatt natural gas power plant. “The media has run with this and really just perpetuated something that they felt like was a dead issue, and it’s not dead,” Justice said. “It’s not dead at all, but you expect me as your governor and our staff to be able to have things run to ground and questions answered. Now, it’s going to take some time. It’s not going to happen the day after tomorrow or the next day.” The plant would sell electrical power on PJM Interconnection’s wholesale energy market, which serves 13 states. According to the company, the construction of the plant would create 1,164 direct and indirect jobs, provide a $440 million economic impact to Brooke County and the surrounding area, spur additional natural gas production and provide electricity to as many as 700,000 homes. The Brooke County Commission is rallying support for the power plant from lawmakers, the business community and building trades groups after learning that the state Economic Development Authority has not agreed to assume the debt for a $5.6 million private loan in case the developers are not able to pay the loan back.
Natural gas important to regional growth but opponents want renewable energy instead - — It’s the fastest-growing region of West Virginia. And some think it is growing too fast. There are growing pains in the eastern panhandle. So just what role does natural gas play in the region’s future? With a green light for a compressor station in Berkeley County, opponents of more natural gas infrastructure in the eastern panhandle are raising objections. They claim the new Rockwool industrial project in Jefferson County is behind it. The building insulation manufacturer, set to employ 150 perhaps by year’s end, maintains the compressor station will benefit the entire region — not just Rockwool — when there is peak demand. But opponents of Rockwool, and of natural gas altogether, for that matter, want no more pipelines and no more gas transported by truck. “It’s an evacuation or an explosion risk for residents in this community,” says Tracy Cannon, who chairs Eastern Panhandle Protectors. But champions of economic development in the eastern panhandle insist that natural gas is key to attracting new employers who create jobs. And a recent federal court decision putting the brakes on the TransCanada pipeline in the region is already giving some prospective ventures for Berkeley and Jefferson counties pause. But natural gas opponents insist there are other fuel sources for business here. “We shouldn’t be putting in more pipelines,” says Dr. Christine Wimer, president of the Jefferson County Foundation, “because we’re moving to more renewable energy.”Meanwhile, Mountaineer Gas is reportedly scouting as many as three sites for a compressed natural gas facility in the Berkeley-Jefferson county region. And Rockwool, opponents say, will consume 1.6 million cubic feet of gas per day.
OIL AND GAS: Mountain Valley pipeline asks FERC for 2-year delay -- Wednesday, August 26, 2020 --- Developers of the Mountain Valley pipeline asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission yesterday for an additional two years to complete construction of the project and place it into service.
Mountain Valley asks FERC for more time to complete pipeline -Held up for nearly a year by lawsuits, suspended permits and a stop-work order, the Mountain Valley Pipeline is bidding for more time.The company building the interstate pipeline asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission late Tuesday to extend by two years a key approval that will otherwise expire in six weeks.When FERC determined on Oct. 13, 2017, that there was a public need for the natural gas that will flow through the transmission line, it granted Mountain Valley a three-year certificate for a project the company said would only take a year to build.But multiple legal challenges by opponents — who say burrowing a massive pipeline through Southwest Virginia will scar the landscape, pollute the water and kill endangered fish and bats — led courts to set aside three key sets of federal permits. Mountain Valley has said it hopes to have the permits restored in time to complete the 303-mile pipeline by early next year.But “due to the uncertainty regarding the timing of these permits and the outcome of any subsequent legal challenge, Mountain Valley asserts that a two-year extension is necessary and proper,” Matthew Eggerding, assistant general counsel for the company, wrote in the Aug. 25 letter to FERC. Mountain Valley spokeswoman Natalie Cox said Wednesday that the company still expects to complete work on schedule but requested the extension “out of an abundance of caution.”
Despite company claims, only a fraction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline is complete in Virginia -Mountain Valley Pipeline is a $6.2 billion corporate boondoggle that a Pittsburgh-based fracked gas company, EQT Corporation, is trying to ram down the throat of West Virginia and Virginia. Boondoggle is exactly the right word for this climate-busting project, which was first conceived in 2014 and has yet to be completed. As originally proposed, MVP carried an estimated price tag of roughly $3.5 billion. When the price shot up to $4.6 billion, it was assessed to be the most expensive proposed pipeline in the United States on a cost per mile basis. MVP more recently has used an estimate of $5.7 billion, but that was before it announced that it was going to spend up to an additional $500 million to increase the pressure in the pipes to further condense the explosive methane gas and thus increase production. So that brings the estimated cost to $6.2 billion – for now.Here’s another number that could haunt MVP $104 million. That is what one of its contractors says it is owed in a pair of lawsuits that were just filed in Pennsylvania and in West Virginia. The contractor is demanding that the pipeline be sold at auction to pay off the debt. So yeah, MVP apparently is not very good with numbers. It turns out that MVP is no better at telling the truth than it is at math. Consider the following:
- • MVP convinced Virginia’s Department of Environmental Quality and the State Water Control Board that construction of this 303-mile pipeline – one third of it in Virginia – could be done safely, without harming water or land resources. That turned out to be a lie, as evidenced by the fact that Virginia assessed more than $2 million in fines for over 300 violations of Virginia law, and recently levied additional fines for violations that occurred while construction was largely stopped.
- • MVP said construction along the steep slopes of Southwest Virginia and across the border in West Virginia could be done safely, without harming its own workers. Then, photos emerged of excavators toppling over, aroot ball rolling down a hill, almost killing people, and landslides threatening homes in the direct path of the pipeline. In fact, one prime contractor for MVP, a Wisconsin company named Precision Pipeline, has apoor environmental record as well as a well-documented history of killing its own workers.
- • MVP said its boondoggle would be fine from a climate change perspective. That also was a lie, as an analysis showed that MVP would produce the equivalent of 89 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually, as much as 26 coal plants or 19 million passenger vehicles.
- • And MVP said it would practice social distancing and mask wearing for its workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. That lie was exposed by, well,photos of its workers not wearing masks and not social distancing. In fact, MVP’s failure to abide by COVID-19 protocols and the danger posed by thousands of workers preparing to come to Virginia to ramp up construction, just led 22 Virginia legislators to call for a complete halt to all construction during the pandemic.
Va. bill seeks to curtail influx of MVP workers - A Virginia legislator has introduced a bill that could make it more difficult for the now-stalled Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) to complete construction, Kallanish Energy reports. The bill, introduced by Delegate Chris Hurst, D-Montgomery, would require that any project requiring 50 or more temporary workers during the coronavirus pandemic get additional state approval before proceeding. Such hiring would require approval from the state commissioner of labor and industry. House Bill 5102 would also require an employer to participate in state programs to boost worker safety and health. That could complicate efforts to complete the $5.7 billion natural gas pipeline in Virginia and West Virginia. MVP has said it intends to hire 4,000 workers to complete the pipeline, and the Hurst bill was introduced to block that influx of pipeline workers. Spokeswoman Natalie Cox said the bill could have impacts on major construction projects in Virginia and could undermine current health efforts to combat Covid-19, the Virginia Mercury reported. The company is complying with federal, state and local health guidelines, Cox said. Work on the pipeline has been stalled since October 2019 after a federal appeals court invalidated a key permit known as a biological opinion from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. A new biological opinion is being prepared by the federal agency. The 303-mile pipeline is expected to begin full service in early 2021. It is designed to move Marcellus and Utica shale natural gas to markets in Virginia and the Carolinas. The company says the project is 92% complete, although critics dispute that. The pipeline company has said it hopes to have all the needed permits in place for the pipeline by the end of 2020.
More Gas Pipelines Scrapped Than Put In Service In H1 2020 - Some 5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of new pipeline capacity was placed into service in the United States in the first half this year, but an estimated 8.7 Bcf/d of pipeline projects have been canceled so far in 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday. The major cancellations included the 1.5 Bcf/d Atlantic Coast Pipeline project, which was designed to transport natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale gas plays to electric power consumers in the Southeast. Despite a major win on a right-of-way issue at the U.S. Supreme Court in June, the developers of the Atlantic Coast natural gas pipeline said in early July that they were definitely scrapping the project given the ongoing delays and significant cost overruns. Dominion Energy and Duke Energy said they were canceling the Atlantic Coast Pipeline “due to ongoing delays and increasing cost uncertainty which threaten the economic viability of the project.” In February, Williams and its partners Duke, Cabot and AltaGas said they had halted investment in the proposed 0.65 Bcf/d Constitution Pipeline project, which would have transported northeastern natural gas production into New England. “While Constitution did receive positive outcomes in recent court proceedings and permit applications, the underlying risk adjusted return for this greenfield pipeline project has diminished in such a way that further development is no longer supported,” Williams said. The South Central region in the U.S. saw the most potential added capacity canceled between January and early July—at 3.5 Bcf/d, with the cancellations of the Permian to Katy Pipeline and the Creole Trail Expansion Project 2, the EIA said. The pipelines that entered into service include the Cheyenne Connector Pipeline and Cheyenne Hub Enhancement Project in Colorado, the Cheniere MIDSHIP Pipeline from SCOOP-STACK Basin in western Oklahoma to the Bennington hub at the Oklahoma-Texas border, and three projects to the Waha hub in West Texas. Most of those projects could increase deliverability to growing natural gas demand markets in North America, the EIA said.
North Carolina sues federal government over approval of seismic tests for oil and gas - North Carolina is suing the federal government over its decision to try to locate oil and gas off the state’s coast despite objections from the state. In June, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) allowed a company to move ahead with seismic testing, which uses blasts from air guns to try to detect oil and gas deposits in the ocean. This decision overrode an objection from the state, which opposed the testing. The seismic testing is a step that comes ahead of offshore drilling, and NOAA's decision falls in line with the administration's goals of expanding oil and gas production. In a lawsuit filed Wednesday, North Carolina’s government argued that NOAA did not adequately show that testing would significantly advance the national interest and also didn’t adequately show that the adverse impacts would be minor. The filing also said that the blasts could affect commercial and recreational fishing, tourism, research and endangered species in the area, including the North Atlantic right whale whose population has dwindled to about 400. “Protecting our state’s beautiful natural resources — and the critical economic benefits they bring to our state — is one of the most important mandates of my job,” North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein (D) said in a statement. “North Carolinians have made their views crystal clear: We do not want drilling off our coast.” Spokespeople for NOAA and the Commerce Department didn’t immediately respond to The Hill’s requests for comment.
AG fights Trump rule allowing ‘bomb trains’ of explosive liquefied gas ⋆ Attorney General Dana Nessel announced Friday that she has joined a coalition of 14 other AGs in urging a federal court to review a new rule that would allow highly explosive materials to be transported by rail across the country. The petition, filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, challenges the President Donald Trump administration’s controversial new federal rule that would let trains carry rail tanks full of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The practice has never been allowed before in the United States due to safety risks. “The lack of safety measures proposed by this administration and the risks posed to our communities are serious red flags I cannot overlook,” Nessel said in a statement Friday. “I’ve joined my colleagues in asking the court to intervene and review this rule to keep our communities safe. Studies on how to safely transport liquefied natural gas by rail are still ongoing, and this administration has rushed to implement a rule that will needlessly endanger people’s lives and threaten our environment.” LNG must be stored below -260 degrees, and upon escaping confinement, it expands rapidly to become a highly flammable and explosive cloud of gas. If ignited, the gas would create an inextinguishable pool of fire which could lead to a dangerous explosion. Nessel was among 15 other attorneys general who sent a letter opposing the proposed “LNG by Rail Rule” in January, urging the Trump administration to withdraw the proposal until its public safety and climate implications could be fully examined. The AGs argue that transporting LNG by rail throughout each state, including Michigan, would present a significant risk of catastrophic accidents and harm the environment by emitting climate change-exacerbating greenhouse gases. This is the latest environmental challenge to the Trump administration that Nessel has joined. She also has fought against rollbacks to the Clean Water Act, Endangered Species Act, environmental review of infrastructure projects and more. The California-based environmental law organization Earthjustice also filed a legal challenge to the federal rule on Tuesday.
U.S. natgas futures ease as Hurricane Laura slows LNG exports - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Tuesday on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected as liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels steered clear of U.S. Gulf of Mexico LNG export terminals ahead of Hurricane Laura. The price move came despite an expected drop in daily output to its lowest since May as Laura caused Gulf Coast producers to shut offshore wells. The shutdowns helped boost gas prices to a nine-month high on Monday. Hurricane Laura is expected to strengthen into a major Category 3 hurricane with top sustained winds of 115 miles per hour (185 km per hour) before hitting the Gulf Coast near the Texas-Louisiana border. Front-month gas futures fell 2.4 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $2.489 per million British thermal units. On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since Nov. 25. Although U.S., European and Asian gas contracts mostly trade on their own fundamentals, a 40% jump in prices at the Netherlands Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and a 53% increase at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia so far in August have made U.S. LNG more attractive in global markets, which helped push U.S. gas futures up about 40% this month. On a daily basis, U.S. LNG exports were on track to fall to a two-week low of 4.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) as LNG exporters shut or reduced the output of the Gulf Coast LNG terminals. Cheniere Energy Inc said it temporarily suspended operations at Sabine Pass in Louisiana, the biggest U.S. LNG export plant. On a daily basis, U.S. output was on track to fall to a three-month low of 84.9 bcfd, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv that is subject to change later in the day.
U.S. natgas futures slip as LNG exports collapse ahead of Hurricane Laura - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Wednesday as liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports dropped to an 18-month low as vessels steered clear of Hurricane Laura. The price move came despite a drop in output to its lowest since 2018 as producers shut offshore wells ahead of the storm. Hurricane Laura strengthened into a major Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 miles per hour (233 kph) before slamming into the Gulf Coast near the Texas-Louisiana border tonight. On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for September delivery fell 2.8 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $2.461 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The October contract, which will soon be the front-month, was down 2.5% to $2.57 per mmBtu, which would still be the highest close for the front-month since Nov. 22. On a daily basis, U.S. LNG exports were on track to fall to 2.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), their lowest since February 2019, as exporters shut or reduced output at their Gulf Coast terminals ahead of Laura. The amount of gas flowing to Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana fell to zero for the first time since it started operating in 2016. U.S. output, meanwhile, was on track to drop to 84.2 bcfd, its lowest since September 2018, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv.
US working natural gas volumes in underground storage rise 45 Bcf: EIA - — US natural gas stocks increased by 45 Bcf last week, which matched analysts' expectations, as storm-related production declines in the Gulf of Mexico shrink the build for the week in progress, prompting gains across the board for Henry Hub futures. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up US natural gas inventories increased to 3.420 Tcf for the week ended Aug. 21, US Energy Information Administration data showed the morning of Aug. 27. The injection matched an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 45 Bcf build. Responses to the survey ranged from an injection of 37 Bcf to 58 Bcf. The injection measured less than the 60 Bcf build reported during the same week in 2019, as well as the five-year average gain of 49 Bcf, according to EIA data. Storage volumes stood at 580 Bcf, or 20.4%, more than the year-ago level of 2.840 Tcf; and 438 Bcf, or 15%, more than the five-year average of 2.982 Tcf . The injection matched an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 45 Bcf build. Responses to the survey ranged from an injection of 37 Bcf to 58 Bcf. The injection measured less than the 60 Bcf build reported during the same week last year as well as the five-year average gain of 49, according to EIA data. Supply and demand balances were largely similar to the week before, when a 43 Bcf addition was estimated, as both sides fell by roughly the same amount. Total supplies were down 900 MMcf/d for an average 91.8 Bcf/d, led by a 700 MMcf/d drop in onshore production. According to A&P Global Platts Analytics. Downstream, total demand was also lower, falling 700 MMcf/d from the week before, led by a drop in power generation demand, which fell 1.4 Bcf/d on the week. The NYMEX Henry Hub September contract jumped 12 cents to $2.57/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report. It represents the highest the prompt-month contract has reached since November 2019. The winter strip, November through March, priced about 8 cents higher at $3.16/MMBtu, extending this month's price gains to nearly $1/MMBtu across the nearby contract strips. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model forecast a 30 Bcf injection for the week ending Aug. 28. This would lower the surplus to the five-year average by 36 Bcf as storms in the Gulf of Mexico restrict offshore production. A 1.6 Bcf/d drop in offshore Gulf of Mexico production coupled with a 900 MMcf/d drop in LNG feedgas demand, both of which are linked to storm activity. The storms may further disrupt demand, leading to looser balances on the week.
U.S. natgas futures jump to 9-month high as Hurricane Laura cuts output - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 5% to a nine-month high on Thursday as output fell to its lowest since May due to shutdowns of offshore wells before Hurricane Laura crashed into the Gulf Coast near the Texas-Louisiana border, and expectations for a third straight day of record pipeline exports to Mexico. Prices jumped despite a drop in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to their lowest since February 2019 as Gulf Coast LNG export plants shut and vessels steered clear of the storm, and traders noted that price gains held after a report showed a storage build in line with estimates. Hurricane Laura smashed into the Gulf Coast overnight as a major Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 miles per hour (241 kph), causing over 650,000 power outages in Texas and Louisiana. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities injected 45 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Aug. 21 -- close to the 47-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and less than an increase of 60 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 49 bcf. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for September delivery rose 11.8 cents, or 4.8%, to settle at $2.579 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Nov. 22. The October contract, which will soon be the front-month, was up about 14 cents to $2.71 per mmBtu, which would be the front-month's highest close since Nov. 8. On a daily basis, U.S. LNG exports were on track to fall to 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), their lowest since February 2019 after Cheniere Energy Inc and Cameron LNG shut their export plants in Louisiana. U.S. output, meanwhile, was on track to drop to a three-month low of 85.4 bcfd, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv.
U.S. natgas futures jump to fresh 9-month high following contract roll - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped on Friday to a nine-month high as the front-month rolled to a new more expensive contract and lots of production remained shut along the Gulf Coast from Hurricane Laura. Traders noted prices were supported by pipeline exports to Mexico rising to a record high for a fourth day in a row and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports starting to edge up after dropping to an 18-month low earlier in the week after two LNG plants in Louisiana shut ahead of Laura. On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for the most active October contract fell 5.3 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $2.657 per million British thermal units. Since October futures are trading much higher than where the September contract closed on Thursday, the front-month was still up about 3%, putting it at its highest settle since Nov. 22 for a second day in a row. Gas futures have soared 92% since falling to a near 25-year low of $1.432 per mmBtu on June 26. "Natural gas prices have mounted a monumental comeback within this two-month period," said Daniel Myers, market analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston, noting the recovery was comparable to the 87% rally between March-July of 2016. "Unlike 2016, this rally has taken place over 63 days, just over half the time." The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals was on track to rise on Friday for a second day in a row to 2.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd). On Wednesday, pipeline flows to the LNG plants fell to 2.3 bcfd, their lowest since February 2019, after Cheniere Energy Inc and Cameron LNG shut their Louisiana plants. U.S. output, meanwhile, was on track to drop to a three-month low of 85.3 bcfd on Friday as many wells in the Gulf remain shut for Laura, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv
Natural Gas Hits a 9-Month High: What's Driving the Rally? - The onset of hotter weather has helped lift natural gas prices by nearly 75% since late June, when they hit their lowest level since 1995. With the commodity being the primary U.S. power plant fuel, firms in natural gas business have gained from the bump in cooling demand. Already on the back of a scorching June and July, and continued heat wave in August, natural gas has experienced a ramp up in air conditioning use. Riding on this positive momentum, prices ended the day at a nine-month high of $2.579 per MMBtu. With the updated weather data revealing an ongoing bullish pattern extending into September — particularly in west and southwest — cooling loads should experience a consistent upward spike. The extension of summer heat has translated into the burning of more gas to feed higher electricity consumption for air conditioning. According to the EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, natural gas’ share of electricity generation would rise to 40% this year from 37% in 2019. Therefore, as Americans crank up their air conditioning to combat hotter-than-normal weather, companies in the natural gas industry stand to make more money. This should also significantly reduce the current inventory surplus that remains bloated due to a combination of weak consumption from a warmer-than-expected 2019-2020 winter, coronavirus-induced drop off in usage and a dip in volumes flowing to LNG export plants. As of Aug 21, natural gas stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states stands at 3.420 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) — 580 Bcf (20.4%) above the 2019 levels at this time and 438 Bcf (14.7%) higher than the five-year average. While certain regions are likely to witness lower-than-normal temperatures on account of the Hurricane Laura-accompanied storm and rainfall, most of the country will see a continuation of this warming trend over the next few weeks. Consequently, the storage surplus is expected to shrink and push prices even higher. This bodes well for companies that develop and sell natural gas. The novel coronavirus outbreak remains a big catalyst for balancing the natural gas market. Analysts believe that the brake in skyrocketing shale oil production growth — tied to the crude price collapse — will also limit associated gas output, thereby cutting the massive supply glut. As a proof of the impending supply drop, the EIA expects that the United States to churn out 88.7 billion cubic feet a day (Bcf/d) of dry natural gas this year, down from the 2019 average of 92.2 Bcf/d. The U.S. natural gas rig count, an indicator of future production, also points to the same. According to Baker Hughes BKR, the gas rig count continues to decline, recently falling to a record low of 68 from more than 160 a year ago.
The United States set record for daily natural gas power burn in late July --In the United States, natural gas consumed by electric power plants (power burn) set a daily record high of 47.2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on Monday, July 27, according to S&P Global Platts estimates. Consequently, on the same day, natural gas-fired generation in the Lower 48 states also reached an all-time high of 316 gigawatts (GW) in the late afternoon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Hourly Electric Grid Monitor.Before July 27, 2020, the record for U.S. natural gas power burn to generate electricity stood at 45.4 Bcf, and it was set on August 6, 2019. Natural gas power burn exceeded 45.4 Bcf per day on seven days in July 2020 and one day in August. Electricity demand in response to high summer temperatures throughout much of the country, relatively low natural gas prices, the start of new natural gas-fired capacity, and greater use of existing natural gas-fired capacity have contributed to increased natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.Natural gas priced at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana averaged $1.73 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for natural gas delivered on July 27, according to Natural Gas Intelligence. From June 1 to July 30, Henry Hub prices averaged $1.64/MMBtu, 30% lower than the prices during the same period in 2019. Adjusted for inflation, this average price is the lowest average price for this period since at least 1993, the earliest data in Natural Gas Intelligence’s daily price series.Of the electricity generated on July 27 in the Lower 48 states, natural gas held the largest share at 45%, followed by coal with a 24% share. Remaining shares included nuclear at 17%, renewable energy at 12%, and other sources at 3%. Natural gas is a key power generation resource because it has the flexibility to supply electricity at any time, including at times of peak demand. In contrast, some renewable energy technologies and nuclear power plants may be nondispatchable and not able to adjust their generation to meet load. For example, nuclear power plants may already be running at or near maximum capacity and may be unable to respond to shifts in load.
Business, environmental groups clash on Line 5 oil pipeline in Straits - The Michigan Public Service Commission got an earful Monday — three hours of public comments on Canadian oil transport giant Enbridge's more than half-billion-dollar proposal to build a new oil and gas pipeline in a tunnel under the Straits of Mackinac lake bottom. Emerging from Monday's public hearing were two groups that couldn't be much farther apart on the tunnel concept: business and industry organizations, labor unions and some local politicians who want the project to proceed as quickly as possible, and environmental groups and some local residents who want a full review of potential impacts and alternatives. At issue is a proposed replacement of the 67-year-old, twin pipelines Enbridge currently operates along the Straits of Mackinac lake bottom — aging pipelines that have suffered multiple, damaging anchor strikes and lost support structures in recent years. Many consider the lines — moving 23 million gallons of oil and natural gas liquids per day east through the Upper Peninsula, into the Lower Peninsula and on to a hub in Sarnia, Ontario — a major threat to the Great Lakes and the economies built around them, should a spill like the one that occurred on Enbridge's oil transmission line in Marshall near the Kalamazoo River in 2010 occur there. That spill fouled more than 35 miles of the river, and took four years and more than $1 billion to clean up. Enbridge's tunnel proposal — approved by state officials in the lame-duck final days of Gov. Rick Snyder's term — is opposed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel. Environmentalists and others question whether the state should commit to a further 99 years of fossil fuel use at a time of growing concern about climate change, and say there are too many unknowns about the environmental impacts of the tunnel. About 10 members of United Steelworkers made comments in support of a new Line 5 tunnel during the MPSC's online public hearing Monday, including Justin Donley, president of Local 912, representing just under 400 employees at the PBF Toledo Refining Complex in Oregon, Ohio, which gets most of its raw products for refining from Line 5. "Without Line 5, these family-sustaining jobs will be gone, and all of the employment we support will be at risk," he said. "Our refinery provides the majority of jet fuel to Detroit Metro Airport, and there are no feasible and prudent alternatives of supply that would sustain operations at PBF Toledo Refinery." The amount of oil and gas products moved through the refinery would equate to thousands of semi trucks per day, Donley said. "The street system where the refinery is located is not capable of handling the traffic increase it would take to move our product. And even if it were, the refinery doesn't have the infrastructure to move that amount of material by truck."
Pipeline tunnel supporters, foes clash before Michigan panel – (AP) — Keeping a 64-year-old oil pipeline in operation by running one portion through a proposed Great Lakes tunnel would safeguard the economy and energy supplies, supporters said Monday, while opponents described the project as an unnecessary risk that would contribute to global warming. The two sides clashed during a public hearing before the Michigan Public Service Commission, one of several agencies that will determine the fate of Enbridge’s plan. The Canadian company operates Line 5, which carries crude oil and liquids used for propane between Superior, Wisconsin, and Sarnia, Ontario. A 6.4-mile segment divides into two pipes that extend across the Straits of Mackinac, which connects Lake Huron and Lake Michigan. While denying critics’ claims that they are vulnerable to a catastrophic leak, Enbridge has offered to replace them with a new pipe encased in a concrete tunnel that would be drilled beneath the straits. The public service commission has jurisdiction over the location of pipelines in Michigan. The panel in June rejected Enbridge’s contention that it already had state permission to install the new line because of an easement granted in 1953 when the twin pipes were laid. Instead, the commission is considering a separate application. It will take testimony for and against the $500 million project and make a decision after final arguments in July 2021. During the hearing Monday, the plan drew support from representatives of industry and labor groups including steelworkers, convenience stores and petroleum marketers. “Families and workers are depending on construction of the Great Lakes Tunnel to preserve our natural resources, protect Michigan jobs, and keep energy prices affordable,” Kike Alaimo of the Michigan Chamber of Commerce said in a written statement. Shutting down Line 5 would choke off fuel supplies to refineries in Michigan and Ohio, cause jet fuel shortages at Detroit Metropolitan Airport and force more shipments of oil by truck and rail, project supporters said. Beth Wallace of the National Wildlife Federation dismissed the warnings as false “fear mongering,” saying Enbridge’s other pipelines have enough capacity to handle Line 5’s oil. A recent slowdown of Line 5’s flow because of damage to one of the twin pipes’ support anchors caused none of the dire consequences predicted by Enbridge and its allies,
Blackstone to Gain $5B from Cheniere LNG Sale - Blackstone Group Inc. will see a $5 billion gain from selling a stake in the largest liquefied natural gas export terminal in the U.S. The firm’s private equity business is unloading its stake of just over 40% of Cheniere Energy Partners LP to Brookfield Asset Management Inc. and its own affiliated infrastructure group, according to a filing Monday. Brookfield negotiated the terms of the transaction, including a $34.25 per unit sale price that values the deal at $7 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Blackstone’s infrastructure unit matched those terms after performing its own due diligence, said the people, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. Representatives for Blackstone and Brookfield declined to comment. The infrastructure funds are betting on Cheniere to continue to thrive amid short-term challenges to U.S. LNG exports. The Houston-based terminal operator is generating $4.3 billion annually from Sabine Pass and a smaller terminal in Texas through its fixed-fee contract structure, protecting it from the collapse in prices after the Covid-19 pandemic and a mild winter hammered consumption. While global demand is returning seasonally, the long-term outlook for the fuel is also positive with more nations switching to gas from coal amid concerns about climate change. Bloomberg News first reported discussions around Brookfield’s infrastructure group acquiring a minority position in Cheniere Energy Partners earlier this month. The firm reported an initial investment in 2016 and as of June had accumulated a 0.34% holding. Blackstone Energy Partners made a $1.5 billion investment in 2012 in Cheniere Energy Partners, which was created by Cheniere Energy Inc. to develop the $25 billion Sabine Pass LNG terminal in Louisiana. That project, which is underpinned by 20-year contracts with major global traders and utilities, shipped its first cargo in February 2016. More than 85% of the production volume at Sabine Pass is contracted and is expected to earn about $3.3 billion in fixed fees annually by the time the sixth liquefaction unit starts up in less than three years. Brookfield’s investment in Cheniere also comes after the asset manager purchased a 25% equity interest in Dominion Energy Inc.’s much-smaller Cove Point LNG terminal in Maryland for about $2.1 billion. This summer, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway also bought a 25% stake and took over operations at Cove Point as part of a $4 billion deal for Dominion gas assets. For Blackstone’s public shareholders, the sale is expected to generate distributable earnings of $0.16 per share, including $0.13 a share upon closing expected in the third quarter, the people said.
1MM+ US GOM Barrels Shut In Due to Storms - More than one million barrels of oil per day have been shut in on the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as of August 23, as Hurricane Marco and Tropical Storm Laura make their way to the region, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) has revealed. According to the latest information from the BSEE, 114 of the 643 manned platforms in the area have been evacuated, as have five of the non-dynamically positioned rigs in the region. Eight dynamically positions rigs are said to have moved off the location of the storms’ projected paths. A total of 1,065,614 barrels of oil per day have been shut in, which equates to 57.6 percent of the region’s production, the BSEE highlighted. “BSEE has activated its Hurricane Response Team as Hurricane Marco and Tropical Storm Laura make their way into the Gulf of Mexico,” the BSEE said in a statement posted on its website on Sunday. “The Hurricane Response Team is monitoring offshore oil and gas operators in the Gulf as they evacuate platforms and rigs in response to the storms,” BSEE added. “The team works with offshore operators and other state and federal agencies until operations return to normal and the storms are no longer a threat to Gulf of Mexico oil and gas activities,” the organization continued. The BSEE went on to say that after the storms have passed, facilities will be inspected. Once all standard checks have been completed, production from undamaged facilities will be brought back online immediately, according to BSEE, which added that facilities sustaining damage may take longer to bring back online.
Rare Gulf Storm Duo Could Prolong Outages-- The threat of a rare double storm blow looms for the U.S. Gulf Coast despite a weaker Tropical Storm Marco, with more than half of offshore oil production already shut and forecasts showing the potential for Laura to become a major hurricane before landfall Thursday. Marco lost power as it approached Louisiana Monday, but is forecast to skirt the coastline before dying out later this week in Texas, said Don Keeney, a meteorologist with commercial forecaster Maxar. The worst of Marco will likely be confined to just along the shoreline and a little inland, while Laura could arrive Thursday as the Atlantic’s first major hurricane of 2020. The last time two storms plied the Gulf together was 1959. “Laura is a different story,” Keeney said. “At this point it is expected to develop into a hurricane. Right now it is expected to be a strong Category 2 or weak Category 3.” The double threat has already prompted evacuations of offshore energy platforms, and almost 58% of oil output and 45% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut, according to the Interior Department’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Gulf Coast refineries and petrochemical plants are often located in low-lying areas vulnerable to flooding. In 2017, an Arkema SA chemical plant about 25 miles (40 kilometers) east of Houston had a fire and explosion after it was flooded by Hurricane Harvey. In September, Exxon shut its Beaumont refinery in Texas because of flooding from Tropical Storm Imelda. Laura almost certainly won’t be as damaging as Harvey, however. Harvey hit Texas as a Category 4 storm and then got pinned in place by larger weather patterns, causing it to send record rains across the eastern half of the state for days. Laura may pack a severe punch at landfall, but it will quickly exit the area, reducing the potential for lingering effects. The last hurricane to hit Texas was Hanna, just under a month ago. Energy platforms in the Gulf of Mexico that account for as much as 17% of America’s oil production and about 3% of gas output are designed to withstand storms of this magnitude; they regularly shut and restart as systems pass through. But two hurricanes roiling the region in quick succession threaten to keep operations shut in for longer and cut into energy supplies more than usual. Marco’s energy impact will be mainly confined to offshore installations, but Laura could cause problems for refineries and fuel-distribution hubs from Houston to Louisiana
Oil and gas companies jump into action ahead of Hurricane Laura -Oil and gas companies are bracing for what could be a major hurricane as the storm entered the Gulf of Mexico late Monday, threatening the nation’s largest concentration of refineries, petrochemical plants and offshore platforms. Tropical Storm Laura is barreling toward Louisiana and Texas after dropping heavy rain and causing flash floods in Haiti, Cuba and the Dominican Republic. The storm is expected to strengthen in the open, warm waters of the Gulf, likely becoming a Category 2 or 3 hurricane by the time it comes ashore near Lake Charles, La., this week. If Laura becomes a Category 3, it would be the first major Atlantic hurricane of 2020. “(Hurricanes are) always a significant concern every season,” said Suzanne Lemieux, the manager of emergency response policy with the trade group American Petroleum Institute. “We see increased risk this year.” Indeed, Laura is the second storm to chart a path for Louisiana this week. A weaker Tropical Storm Marco landed along the mouth of the Mississippi River on Monday afternoon.Laura is forcing companies to temporarily halt about 82 percent of the oil production and 57 percent of the natural gas production in the Gulf, according to an Interior Department bureau that oversees offshore oil and gas production. 0 Workers have been evacuated from 281 production platforms, nearly half of the 643 Gulf of Mexico platforms. Of the 26 drilling rigs in the gulf, 17 have been evacuated or moved from the storm’s track, the department said Monday. Tens of thousands of offshore workers are employed in the Gulf. BP began evacuating all personnel from its platforms Friday and moved four mobile drilling rigs out of the storm’s track. The British oil supermajor also evacuated its operations learning center southwest of New Orleans. Chevron has evacuated all personnel from platforms and has halted production. The California-based oil supermajor also secured two Mississippi River delta terminals and closed nearby pipeline systems. ExxonMobil evacuated personnel from its Hoover platform in the Gulf of Mexico. The Irving-based oil supermajor is operating its refinery units normally. Shell has halted production at all but one of its nine operating platforms in the Gulf and has evacuated non-essential personnel. Shell said it is monitoring Laura’s track to determine if it needs to temporarily shut down its ninth production platform, Perdido.
Experts say oil and gas disruption will depend on Hurricane Laura's speed --Even as Hurricane Laura barrels toward the state’s coastline after being upgraded to a Category 4 storm Wednesday afternoon, economists and regulatory experts say the effects on the state’s oil and gas industry will depend on how long Laura lingers over the Texas-Louisiana border. “If it’s a fast mover like we’re kind of expecting, I don’t expect it to drop the torrential amounts of rain like we dropped in 2017, so that will certainly help and reduce the major flood risk,” said Timothy Snyder, the president of Matador Economics. “We still may have a flood risk and probably some wind damage, but we can sustain some of that. I do not believe, unless that storm gets right on the Gulf Coast and stops, that we’ll have a major event.” David Blackmon, an energy consultant and associate editor for Shale Magazine based in Mansfield, didn’t downplay the seriousness of Hurricane Laura’s impact. But he said that in its aftermath, Texas shouldn’t experience fuel shortages or price spikes witnessed after Hurricane Harvey. “After Harvey, we lost 25% of the refining capacity for a month. But every statement I have seen from the refiners indicates they expect to be back online by the weekend,” Blackmon said. “This storm is really serious, and everyone needs to get out of its way if they can. But as far as the oil and gas industry is concerned, the main thing is that as long as it gets out of that coastal area quickly as it’s predicted to do, the damage and other disruptions to the oil and gas supply chains should be pretty minimal.” There could be a slight uptick in the price of fuel for a few days, but it will be less than what late-summer motorists have paid in the past. That’s because the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a drop in the demand for fuel. “We’re about 35 to 40 cents a gallon lower than we were in February,” Blackmon said. “We saw gas go up by 30 to 40 cents a gallon [after Harvey].” Ray Perryman, a state economist with the Waco-based Perryman Group, agreed that the energy industry is well prepared for natural disasters. But he said other industries could be hit hard. “Hurricane Laura threatens about a third of U.S. refining capacity and a major portion of production of certain types of chemicals.
US Energy Dept Ready to Respond to Laura - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced Wednesday that it was working with its interagency and private sector partners to prepare for the landfall of Hurricane Laura and support the energy sector response efforts. The organization revealed that its office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security and Emergency Response (CESER) had activated Emergency Support Function #12 responders to support the U.S. Gulf Coast and said DOE responders had been deployed to FEMA’s National Response Coordination Center in Washington, D.C. and had completed deployments for Hurricane Laura response in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. DOE’s Southwestern Power Administration (SWPA) personnel have also coordinated with the Army Corps of Engineers and SWPA counterparts to prepare for the storm and respond to recovery assistance requests in the assessment of damage and support of restoration efforts when called upon, the organization revealed. “President Trump is taking strong and decisive action to ensure the safety of the American people through this natural disaster,” energy secretary Dan Brouillette said in a government statement. Deputy energy secretary Mark W. Menezes said, “secretary Brouillette and I stand ready to assist in response and recovery efforts, including the potential to authorize the use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), if directed by President Trump”. As of August 26, personnel had been evacuated from 299 production platforms in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). Personnel from 11 non-dynamically positioned rigs had been evacuated and 16 dynamically positioned rigs had been moved. According to the BSEE, 84.3 percent of oil production had been shut in, equating to 1.5 million barrels per day.
Texas Refineries Avoid Brunt of Laura-- Oil declined as Hurricane Laura barreled into Louisiana, avoiding widespread disruption to key energy infrastructure along the Texas Gulf Coast. Laura made landfall early Thursday near Cameron, Louisiana, as a Category 4 storm and has started weakening. While it knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of people and impacted plants that produce chemicals and liquefied natural gas, southeast Texas ports and refineries -- including the largest U.S. refinery -- likely avoided the worst of it. Crude futures in New York fell as much as 2.4% on Thursday, while gasoline futures dropped as much as nearly 7%. A stronger dollar also reduced the appeal for commodities priced in the greenback. “The damage is not as bad as anticipated, which is creating more sell pressure along the energy complex,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “The lower price of gasoline means worse refining margins potentially, meaning that there’s not going to be a lot of incentive to use a lot of crude quickly.” As the storm passes, traders are assessing the potential impact on both fuel production and consumption. Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Beaumont refinery on the Texas Gulf Coast will begin restarting Friday if an assessment shows no damage from Hurricane Laura, while its Baytown refinery on the Houston Ship Channel has already begun the restart process.
As Laura exits, U.S. energy firms tally damage, plan restarts - (Reuters) - U.S. energy companies on Thursday were organizing crews to evaluate offshore Gulf of Mexico platforms and assess damage to coastal operations as Hurricane Laura took its fierce winds inland. The storm hit Louisiana early Thursday with 150 mile-per-hour (240 kph) winds, damaging buildings, knocking down trees and cutting power to more than 650,000 people in Louisiana and Texas. However, Laura’s storm surge was much less than predicted, sparing refineries from feared massive flooding. Offshore operators were scheduling reconnaissance flights over the more than 300 offshore platforms and drilling rigs whose crews evacuated last week. Laura tore through the Gulf of Mexico’s prime oil fields, with first assessments due Thursday for pipelines and platforms. About 84%, or 1.56 million barrels per day, of U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude output and 60% of natural gas offshore production remained shut on Thursday, the U.S. Department of Interior reported. Chevron Corp has begun to redeploy workers and restore production at its offshore fields. Equinor plans a weekend flyover of its Titan platform and BP is preparing to return workers, spokespeople said. “As far as we know, there have not been offshore impacts,” said Suzanne Lemieux, a emergency response official with trade group American Petroleum Institute.The ports of Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, and Sabine in Texas and Lake Charles and Cameron in Louisiana remained closed on Thursday, the U.S. Coast Guard said. Lake Charles avoided significant flooding but was closed by power outages, said Ed Manint, manager of security and safety. Storm-related liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant closures put U.S. LNG exports on track to fall to 2.1 billion cubic feet per day on Thursday, the lowest level since February 2019, according to data from Refinitiv.
Here's how the Louisiana petrochemical industry held up after Hurricane Laura, offshore -Major operators of oil, gas and chemical plants and pipelines in the path of Hurricane Laura appeared to have just limited damage Thursday, with the exception of a leak and chemical fire reported at a chlorine production plant just west of Lake Charles.While hundreds of thousands of residential, business and industrial customers were without power due to downed lines caused by wind speeds that peaked around 150 miles per hour, the area averted the worst-case flooding predictions when storm surge came it at about half the up to 20 feet estimated."There is some damage to some of the facilities, but it appears to be somewhat light," U.S. Secretary of Energy Daniel Brouillette said in a briefing Thursday afternoon. "It is not significant in nature, meaning that the operations of these facilities will probably continue in very short order," he said.Brouillette said his department, other agencies and BioLab Inc. were still trying to determine the cause of the leak and chemical fire at a plant owned by the company, which is a unit in the household products division of KIK Custom Products, based in Toronto, Canada, which makes a range of chlorine-based products, including Clorox-branded pool cleaners.The immediate concern more broadly is the widespread power outages in the area, said Brouillette, a Louisiana native.
Pollution From Oil Wells and Industrial Sites Hit by Hurricane Laura Remains Unknown -The full extent of the damage wrought by the storm formerly known as Hurricane Laura will only continue to grow as the weakened storm continues inland and pollution from petrochemical plants and other industrial sites is discovered.More than 1,400 active oil wells sit in the path Hurricane Laura carved through Louisiana's coastline, some of which are decades old and especially vulnerable due to the state's receding coastline."I have a lump in my throat thinking about them," Bob Bea, a specialist in catastrophic risk management and former well manager for Shell, told the New Orleans Advocate.The environmental damage caused by leaking wells, as well as from pollution spread from other damaged industrial sites, may not be discovered for days as officials focus on search and rescue tasks in the wake of the storm.The storm's rapid intensification, fueled by exceptionally warm sea-surface temperatures, likely made matters worse but overconfidence from regulators and oil companies is also to blame, according to Bea."When it comes to how we manage our platforms, pipelines, and wells, we here in the U.S. are not world leaders in risk management," he said."We're not Canada or Norway. We're not even a Third World country."For a deeper dive: New Orleans Advocate; Potential industrial pollution: AP, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Buzzfeed
More than 1,400 oil wells were in Laura's path, but spills and other damage may not be known for days - Hurricane Laura plowed through a corner of Louisiana loaded with oil and gas wells, pipelines, storage tanks and other infrastructure that could potentially cause thousands of small and large environmental disasters – the extent of which may not be known for days or weeks.About 1,400 active oil wells are crowded in the path Laura took to Louisiana's coastline. If hit hard enough, the wells, many of which are decades old and may no longer be protected by the state’s receding shoreline, could trigger oil spills in coastal waters and marshes.“I have a lump in my throat thinking about them,” said Bob Bea, a specialist in catastrophic risk management and former well manager for Shell. “I’m not at all confident these systems will, when hit with a severe hurricane, function adequately.”Also in harm’s way are dozens of offshore oil platforms, pipelines, large liquefied natural gas complexes in Cameron Parish and a host of petrochemical plants and refineries in the Lake Charles area. Several heavily contaminated sites managed by the federal Superfund cleanup program could be damaged or flooded, as many were in Texas during Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Federal and state emergency responders say spill inspections and cleanup will likely be delayed as all resources are focused on search-and-rescue operations and other critical post-hurricane needs.
Bodies found of remaining 2 missing in Texas port explosion (AP) — The bodies of the remaining two crew members of a dredging boat who were missing after an explosion last week in the Port of Corpus Christi in Texas were found Monday, the U.S. Coast Guard said. Four people died following the explosion that happened Friday morning when the vessel struck a submerged propane pipeline. The bodies of two crew members were recovered Saturday. The Coast Guard said that all missing crew members of the Waymon L Boyd are now accounted for. The Port of Corpus Christi had previously said the pipeline was carrying natural gas, but said Monday it was carrying propane. An official with the Texas General Land Office said over the weekend that the vessel carried a maximum of 6,000 gallons of diesel fuel. The Coast Guard said the cause of the incident is under investigation. The fire onboard the vessel was first extinguished Friday afternoon, but sparked again and was finally put out at approximately 10 p.m. Friday, shortly before the vessel broke apart and sunk, the Coast Guard said.
GOP candidate for state oil and gas regulatory agency faces fraud accusations - The Republican candidate running to join the Texas oil and gas regulatory agency has run afoul of state environmental rules and is embroiled in a series of lawsuits accusing him of fraud in the oil patch. Jim Wright, owner of an oilfield waste services company, says he has done nothing wrong and that he’s the victim of a Democratic Party smear job. If nothing else, South Texas court filings and public records showing more than $180,000 in state fines levied against Wright point to the fractiousness of the oilfield. At the center of the disputes is DeWitt Recyclable Products, a company Wright started nearly a decade ago near Cuero to take oily muds and other drilling site byproducts and recycle them into crude oil, diesel fuel and cleaned-up dirt. Wright sold the company in 2014 to out-of-state investors for more than $1 million, but he remained listed as president, according to court filings. The Railroad Commission sent the facility a cease-and-desist letter and canceled permits in January 2017 after an inspector found waste stockpiled directly on the ground, waste material storage tanks leaking material into the soil and unpermitted stormwater ponds collecting around the machinery and the facility. In November 2017, Wright agreed to pay for the cleanup of the site and pay the Railroad Commission $181,519 for the violations — even though his attorney had claimed that he did not have ownership or operational control of DeWitt after the sale and that, despite requests, his name was never taken off agency records for the facility. Wright then sued two of the vendors of the storage tanks, alleging that they were responsible for the cleanup of the material in the tanks. The companies later filed countersuits. At stake, among other things, is $800,000 that DeWitt had paid to the Railroad Commission in 2016 to ensure a proper cleanup if the facility were to close. Wright has recouped that money, but the storage tank vendors — some of whom have won court judgments recognizing them as rightful creditors — say that Wright was not entitled to the money.
Major pipelines hit legal snags. But it’s business as usual in Texas. - On a Sunday afternoon in March, Teri Albright tossed tea bags into a pitcher at home. Expecting the tint of iced tea, she was surprised to see the water turn a darker brown. Something was wrong: every tap in the house produced the same sludgy liquid, which looked like chocolate milk. It took several days to find the source of the problem. Kinder Morgan, a titan of oil and gas infrastructure in the United States, had set up a construction site for the Permian Highway Pipeline, a 42-inch natural gas line, about a mile away from their property. That Saturday night, workers accidentally released 36,000 gallons of drilling fluid into the ground. Early on, Kinder Morgan faced opposition from individuals, local governments and conservation groups. EHN visited Hill Country——a unique landscape known for its rolling terrain in central Texas—and found that environmentalists and some who are pro-development had gained a common enemy. A barrage of lawsuits in Hill Country challenged the company, as well as the Railroad Commission of Texas and the Army Corps of Engineers, which are both responsible for permitting and oversight. But the project broke ground last year, with the company completing more than half of the first 100-mile stretch by December. Kinder Morgan is so far unyielding. But nationwide pipelines are facing setbacks. Multiple high-profile pipelines—including Keystone XL and the Atlantic Coast Pipeline—have been stalled or cancelled, after waves of litigation and scrutiny over environmental effects. In early 2020, a new parallel timeline began. On February 13, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first case of COVID-19 in Texas. Governor Greg Abbott declared a statewide emergency exactly one month later, then ordered stricter provisions a week later. Restaurants and schools shuttered; the state banned gatherings of 10 or more people. While the onus to implement stricter shelter-in-place rules fell to local officials—creating a patchwork of rules and guidelines depending on the county—the number of coronavirus cases soared. The state has now had more than 600,000 confirmed cases and more than 11,760 deaths due to the virus. But as other economic activities ground to a halt, Kinder Morgan pushes forward. The same is true elsewhere—other pipeline companies are seizing the opportunity to build, presumably with less scrutiny during a pandemic. While the future of pipeline development is uncertain, their immediate impact on the environment and clean water is not. Two years after resisting the Permian Highway Pipeline project, the worst fears for many residents have been confirmed.
US oil, gas rig count drops by seven to 282, mostly from small plays— The US oil and gas rig count dropped by seven on the week to 282 with small plays along the Texas Gulf Coast and Kansas accounting for most of the decrease, rig data provider Enverus said Aug. 27. The Gulf Coast rig removals, accounting for three rigs of the weekly decrease for the period ended Aug. 26, came about the same time as Hurricane Laura, which made landfall around southwest Louisiana's refining center early Aug. 27 as a powerful Category 4 storm. But any relationship of the onshore rig count to the offshore storm may be better known next week if the rigs are restored. Another three-rig decrease in recent days came from Salina, a small niche play in Kansas, which in July and early August only had one to four rigs running. But in mid-August, the play's rigs jumped to six from two, held at six for two weeks, and in recent days plunged to three, Matt Andre, an analyst with S&P Global Platts Analytics said. "It was more of a surprise that it increased to six rigs [earlier this month] rather than falling back to three," Andre said, since drilling there is carried out by vertical-only rigs, which suggests it is not an unconventional play. Otherwise, within the unconventional plays there was little movement the past week. Losing one rig each were the Permian Basin of West Texas, the DJ Basin of Colorado and the natural gas-oriented Haynesville Shale of East Texas/Northwest Louisiana. That brought their totals to 127, six and 36 respectively, Enverus data showed. The Permian's 127 rigs represents the fourth consecutive week of rig losses for that basin. In the last week in July, the Permian, the largest domestic oil play, was running 138 rigs. The Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas gained a rig, for a total of 10. All other basins, such as the Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana and two gas-prone basins, Marcellus Shale largely in Pennsylvania and Utica Shale mostly in Ohio, were unchanged. That left the Bakken with 10 rigs, the Marcellus Shale with 25, and the Utica Shale with six. Platts Analytics expects the US rig count to climb in the second half of the year, closing out the year at around 309. "That will be mostly driven by gas-focused drilling in areas such as the Haynesville, which should gain about 20 rigs, and to a lesser degree the Marcellus, up by seven, and the Utica, up by three from August to December," he said. "We are also expecting the Permian Delaware on the Texas side to rise by about 14 rigs, and the Bakken Shale by 10 rigs in the fourth quarter," he added.
Baker Hughes Reports Drop in Oil Rigs - Baker Hughes Reports Drop in Oil Rigs - Baker Hughes Co. on Friday reported the total number of rotary drilling rigs operating in the United States held flat at 254 this week. The most recent U.S. rig count reflects a three-unit decline in oil rigs (to 180), a three-unit increase in gas rigs (to 72) and no change in the number of miscellaneous rigs (two), Baker Hughes stated. Compared to the corresponding period in 2019, the U.S. rig count is down 650 rigs, the service company continued. It noted that 562 more oil rigs and 90 more gas rigs were operating a year ago. The two-unit miscellaneous rig count is unchanged year-on-year, it added. The U.S. offshore rig count this past week was 13, down 13 from last year, Baker Hughes stated. Baker Hughes also noted that Canada’s overall rig count fell by two this week to 54. The latest total for Canada comprises 19 oil rigs (down one), 35 gas rigs (down one) and zero miscellaneous rigs, the firm pointed out. Against figures for last year, 86 fewer oil rigs and 10 fewer gas rigs are operating in Canada.
Bismarck company develops a new way to clean up oil spills using magnetic wood chips - A Bismarck-based company has reworked an old product -- wood chips -- to better clean up oil spills. Carbontec Energy Corp. has magnetized its chips, which attract and hold oil when placed atop a spill. Their magnetic nature enables them to more easily be removed to collect oil from land or water. Chairman John Simmons believes the chips could help with spills both large and small. Tribes and communities along the Missouri River concerned about major oil spills on the water could have them at the ready, he said. “If there’s a big spill on Lake Sakakawea for instance, you’d have skimmers with a magnetic head,” Simmons said, referring to a machine often used to clean up oil that spills into bodies of water. The wood chips would pull out more than 90% of the oil in the water, Simmons said. Magnetic booms placed in the water also could be used along with the chips to capture the oil and prevent it from flowing farther away from the site of the spill. Such a setup could be useful if the Dakota Access Pipeline were ever to leak at its Missouri River crossing upstream of the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation, Simmons said. Tribal members are concerned that a leak would devastate their water supply. The chips and other equipment could be staged near the Fort Yates water intake in case a leak ever happens, Simmons suggested.
U.S. Army Corps asks appeals court to reverse Dakota Access pipeline ruling -(Reuters) - The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Wednesday asked an appeals court to reverse a ruling which scrapped an environmental permit that allows the Dakota Access crude oil pipeline to operate on U.S. land. Earlier this month, a federal judge ordered the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) to detail options by the end of the month for resolving the loss of the permit. On Wednesday, ACE and Dakota Access, controlled by Energy Transfer LP (ET.N), argued that the district court abused its discretion in vacating the permit and ordering a thorough environmental study to be conducted. They also argued the court’s ruling sets impossible standards that would discourage major infrastructure investment, waste government resources and pose economic and environmental harm. “The district court’s decision will create a new, heightened standard of judicial review that will be impossible for agencies to meet as they consider vital infrastructure projects,” ACE said in the brief. The loss of the permit could force the 570,000 barrel-per-day pipeline, the biggest out of North Dakota’s Bakken shale region, to be shut and drained.
Dakota Access Case Could Sour Future Pipeline Plans - The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has asked an appeals court to reverse a lower court’s ruling vacating the permit of the Dakota Access oil pipeline to operate, arguing that such ruling creates “impossible” standards that could scupper future major infrastructure projects. A federal judge ruled on July 6 that the Dakota Access Pipeline, in operation since 2017, must be emptied and shut down by August 5, until a new comprehensive environmental review is complete. The United States District Court for the District of Columbia said that the Army Corps of Engineers had violated the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) when it gave a permit to the pipeline to build beneath Lake Oahe.Earlier this month, a U.S. appeals court ruled that the Dakota Access can stay open and should not be emptied of crude, but it did order an expedited schedule for the parties to submit briefs over whether a new environmental impact statement would be needed for the pipeline.In its brief to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, lawyers for the Army Corps of Engineers said that “If not corrected, the district court’s decision will create a new, heightened standard of judicial review that will be impossible for agencies to meet as they consider vital infrastructure projects that excite opposition from some sector of society,” as carried by Bloomberg Law. According to the Army Corps, those impossible standards would not only discourage investment in major infrastructure, but they would also waste government resources. The Army Corps argues that the district court – which ordered Dakota Access shut down and the Army Corps to carry out a new, more comprehensive, environmental assessment review – applied the “wrong legal standard” in the precedent it used to vacate the permit for the 570,000-bpd oil pipeline that carries oil from the Bakken/Three Forks area in North Dakota to Patoka, Illinois.
North Dakota Approves Two In-State Pipelines -- August 27, 2020 -Link here. --The North Dakota Public Service Commission approved two pipeline projects Wednesday: one for a new natural gas processing plant in Williams County and another for the Dickinson refinery. The Williams County project involves two new pipelines that will extend from OE2 North's Bill Sanderson Gas Processing Plant, which is located west of Williston. Both will connect to larger pipelines. One of the proposed lines, with a length of 1.3 miles and a capacity of 80,000 barrels per day, is to carry natural gas liquids. The other is for residue gas, with a capacity of 250 million cubic feet per day and a length of 4.7 miles. The project is projected to cost $6 million, and the lines are expected to begin operating by the end of the year. Construction on the processing plant began this spring and has continued over the course of the summer.
‘People Are Still Putting Their Bodies on the Line to Stop this Pipeline’ - - Michael Markus, known as Rattler, had mixed emotions when he heard the news. A federal judge had ruled that the Dakota Access Pipeline was built unlawfully and ordered the pipeline to stop pumping oil pending an in-depth environmental review. “We have, and are, going through a lot, but this would heal,” Markus wrote to Rural America In These Times. At the same time, he wrote, “it’s hard not to be heartbroken.” Markus sent the message from Sandstone federal prison in Minnesota, where he is serving a three-year sentence for trying to stop the pipeline from being built in the first place. Markus, who is Oglalla Lakota, grew up on the Pine Ridge Reservation. He served in the U.S. Marine Corps and saw combat. In 2016, when the NoDAPL movement gained momentum and resistance camps formed near the Standing Rock Reservation, he made supply runs to the camps. When pipeline security guards unleashed attack dogs against water protectors in early September of that year, Markus moved into the camps to stay. “Well I have been around a few years… lol, and I have been on a search to where I belong and what I need to be doing,” Markus wrote. “When I first went to camp I knew that I have found where I need to be and what I need to be doing.” He took on the traditional Lakota role of akicita, which in camp meant keeping the peace between water protectors and on the front lines meant watching “for infiltrators and instigators to protect people from getting hurt.” In February 2017, as the pipeline neared completion and police prepared to clear the main Oceti Sakowin camp, Markus was one of a handful of people, all Native, hit with federal felony charges for crimes allegedly committed more than three months earlier. Markus was charged with Civil Disorder and Use of Fire to Commit a Federal Felony Offense, a charge that carries a mandatory minimum 10-year prison sentence. In 2018, he accepted a non-cooperating plea agreement in part because, as he wrote in to RAITT, “we were told we would not get a fair trial right from the get go.” In exchange for a guilty plea to the Civil Disorder charge, the prosecution agreed to drop the Use of Fire charge and recommend a 36-month sentence. This experience left Markus skeptical the court system can deliver justice. “I don’t think it will be stopped [immediately],” he wrote in his mid-July message of the pipeline and the court order to shut it down. “Because these people have so much money that they can pay the pocket change fines and keep making millions.” His words turned out to be prescient: Energy Transfer LP, the company behind the pipeline, challenged the ruling and on Aug. 5 a federal appeals court paused the shutdown order. The pipeline will continue to operate while the environmental review is conducted, pumping half a million barrels of oil per day out of North Dakota’s Bakken formation and under Lake Oahe on the Missouri River, just upstream from the Standing Rock Lakota (Sioux) reservation. Razor wire 4 Meanwhile, Markus remains in prison — an increasingly dangerous place to be as the pandemic rages on. Covid-19 outbreaks have already swept through many prisons and detention centers and a recent report revealed that U.S. Marshalls are shipping Covid-positive inmates all over the federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) system. As of this writing, Sandstone prison had three confirmed cases.
PIPELINES: Biden win could spell the end for Dakota Access -- Friday, August 28, 2020 -- A President Joe Biden could shut down the Dakota Access pipeline. And if he's elected, environmental groups and tribes will be pressuring him to do just that.
Bakken production pushes Canadian exports on Northern Border to 15-year low | S&P Global Platts — Resurging production in North Dakota's Bakken Shale following a wave of spring shut-ins has pushed Canadian exports to the US Midwest on Northern Border Pipeline down to its lowest flow volumes in more than 15 years, increasing the AECO hub's discount to Chicago pricing. However, Index of Customer data shows a year-over-year increase in Canadian Exports on Great Lakes Gas Transmission line this winter. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up Returning Bakken production and falling capacity have helped push West Canada flows to additional lows on Northern Border, while strengthening prices limit rerouting gas to the US Upper Midwest. West Canada flows have averaged just 524 MMcf/d in August on Northern Border, the lowest in at least 15 years, and hitting as low as 400 MMcf/d for three straight days early this month, according to data by S&P Global Platts Analytics. In contrast, month-to-date flows averaged 994 MMcf/d in 2019. Returning Bakken production is the primary reason behind reduced flows, as Platts Analytics production sample has averaged 2 Bcf/d this month, just 176 MMcf/d below samples seen from January through March. Coupled with this has been falling capacity along Northern Border. It has dropped 142 MMcf/d from the first three months to 2.5 Bcf/d this month at Glen Ullin. Bakken production has climbed back to 1.97 Bcf/d, according to the latest data from the North Dakota Industrial Commission. However, it still remains well below the 3.1 Bcf/d the state averaged in March when the crude oil price collapse struck, prompting a wave of shut-ins, limiting associated gas production. The lower volumes flowing from Western Canada to the US Midwest have lowered Chicago's premium to AECO this month to 18 cents/MMbtu, which was down slightly from 21 cents/MMbtu in July. As Platts Analytics expects further production in the Bakken the next two months, this should further limit West Canada flows and increase AECO's discount to Chicago. However, as Canadian exports dip on Norther Border, the Index of Customer data indicates Great Lakes pipeline is likely to see higher exports this coming winter than last. According to 3Q 2020 IOC data, there is 1.327 Bcf/d contracted to be exported into the US Midwest on Great Lakes at Emerson this winter. Q4 2019 data indicates there was 1.1 Bcf/d contracted at Emerson last winter, and the pipe actually exported 900 MMcf/d. Q2 2020 IOC data indicates there is 1.3 Bcf/d contracted for exports at Emerson this summer, and summer to date, and the pipe has flowed within about 150 MMcf/d of this contracted amount. If this relationship holds, then Western Canada as a whole would export about 1.1 to 1.2 Bcf/d this coming winter.
Oil and brine spills in McKenzie County after lightning sets tank on fire — An estimated 33,600 gallons of produced water and 1,700 gallons of oil spilled in McKenzie County, N.D., according to a news release from the state Department of Environmental Quality. The spilled materials were completely recovered.Produced water, or brine, is a mixture of saltwater, oil and sometimes, drilling fluids, that is created during oil and gas production.The spill occurred Wednesday, Aug. 26, at a saltwater disposal well about nine miles from Watford City after lightning set a storage tank on fire, according to the press release. E-Source Energy SWD reported the spill. Department officials will continue inspecting the site and monitoring remediation efforts.
Los Angeles natural gas plant has been leaking methane for years - (Reuters) - A Los Angeles-area natural gas plant has leaked planet-warming methane gas for years but work to fix the problem tracked by NASA has been delayed until November, a city power official said.Faulty natural gas compressors at the 690-megawatt Valley Generating Station have been leaking more than 10,000 cubic feet of methane per hour “for the last couple years,” Norm Cahill, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power’s (LADWP) director of power supply operations, told the utility’s board of commissioners on Tuesday.Video of the meeting was posted online on Wednesday. A leak of that magnitude, over the course of a year, is roughly equivalent to the emissions of 30,000 cars, according to environmental group Sierra Club.In a statement, LADWP said the level was low in comparison to other emissions sources and dwarfed by the 2015 leak at the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility that lasted four months and forced evacuations of a suburban neighborhood.
Halliburton looks beyond US shale, charting a “fundamentally different course” – --Halliburton Co. is looking away from its traditional North American heartland for sales growth as the fracking behemoth works its way through an historic oil bust.Shares for one of the world’s biggest oilfield service providers surged more than 8% on Monday after it posted $456 million in second-quarter free cash flow -- more than double expectations. Halliburton also told investors it’s charting a “fundamentally different course” after slashing jobs and the dividend in recent months.“As oil demand recovers, I expect the international business will continue to be a more meaningful contributor to our revenue going forward,” Chief Executive Officer Jeff Miller told analysts and investors during a conference call. “North America production is likely to remain structurally lower in the foreseeable future and has slower growth going forward.”Miller has let go of workers and clipped Halliburton’s dividend after tumbling oil prices brought on by a global pandemic wrecked fracking far more than expected. Rival Schlumberger Ltd. predicted in April that as much as 60% of pressure pumping demand would fall off by July 1. As much as 85% of frack crews have lost work this year, according to Primary Vision Inc.Halliburton “inked simply outstanding results vs. expectations,” analysts at Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. wrote in a note to investors. “Structural cost cuts are clearly bearing fruit.”With 75% of its planned cost cuts complete, Miller said the rest should be done by the end of September, largely focusing on international markets and real-estate holdings.
150+ North American Producers in Chapter 11 Risk - Unless prices strengthen further, about 150 more North American exploration and production (E&P) companies will need to seek Chapter 11 protection through 2022. That’s according to Rystad Energy, which estimated that, if WTI prices remained at $40 per barrel, 29 North American E&P Chapter 11 filings would take place this year, 68 in 2021 and 57 in 2022. Rystad Energy highlighted that if its Chapter 11 forecasts materialize, this would bring the total number of North American E&P filings for 2020-2022 to nearly 190, compared to 207 during the five-year period of 2015-2019. The company noted that this would also bring total Chapter 11 North American E&P debt for 2020-2022 to about $168 billion, which it stated is 36 percent higher than the $122 billion recorded in 2015-2019. The Covid-19 pandemic has added “severe financial strain” on a North American upstream industry that was already “reeling” under billions of dollars of debt, Rystad Energy outlined. “While an improvement in oil prices towards $40 per barrel WTI saved a significant number of E&Ps and prevented early Chapter 11 filings in June-July, the current price environment is in no way sufficient for a large number of E&Ps in the medium-term,” Rystad Energy’s head of shale research Artem Abramov said in a company statement sent to Rigzone. “As hedging programs set at WTI $50+ per barrel expire in the second half of this year, we anticipate greater financial pressure on the industry unless WTI prices recover further,” he added in the statement. Rystad Energy says its E&P Chapter 11 model is based on a cash flow analysis covering about 10,000 active North American oil and gas E&Ps. The model is designed to present a macro-level outlook rather than look at individual company insights, according to Rystad Energy. As of August 23, 12:48pm CEST, there have been 23 million confirmed cases of Covid-19, with 800,906 deaths, according to the latest data from the World Health Organization (WHO). The region most affected by the virus in terms of confirmed cases and deaths, as of August 23, has been the Americas, WHO data shows.
The End of Oil Is Near - The oil industry has turned the oceans into aquatic parking lots—floating storage facilities holding, at their highest levels in early May, some 390 million barrels of crude oil and refined products like gasoline. Between March and May, the amount of oil “stored” at sea nearly tripled, and it has yet to abate in many parts of the world. This tanker invasion is only one piece of a dangerous buildup in oil supply that is the result of an unprecedented global glut. The coronavirus pandemic has gutted demand, resulting in the current surplus, but it merely exacerbated a psychopathy that’s been plaguing the oil industry for years: the incessant overproduction of a product that the world is desperately trying to wean itself from, with growing success.Today, the global oil industry is in a tailspin. Demand has cratered, prices have collapsed, and profits are shrinking. The oil majors (giant global corporations including BP, Chevron, and Shell) are taking billions of dollars in losses while cutting tens of thousands of jobs. Smaller companies are declaring bankruptcy, and investors are looking elsewhere for returns. Significant changes to when, where, and how much oil will be produced, and by whom, are already underway. It is clear that the oil industry will not recover from COVID-19 and return to its former self. What form it ultimately takes, or whether it will even survive, is now very much an open question.Under President Donald Trump, the United States has joined other petroleum superpowers in efforts to maintain oil’s dominance. While government bailout programs and subsidies could provide the lifeline the industry needs to stay afloat, such policies will likely throw good money after bad. As Sarah Bloom Raskin, a former Federal Reserve governor and former deputy secretary of the Treasury, has written, “Even in the short term, fossil fuels are a terrible investment. . . . It also forestalls the inevitable decline of an industry that can no longer sustain itself.” In contrast to an agenda that doubles down on dirty fuels, a wealth of green recovery programs aim to keep fossil fuels in the ground as part of a just transition to a sustainable and equitable economy. If these policies prevail, the industry will rapidly shrink to a fraction of its former stature. Thus, as at no other time since the industry’s inception, the actions taken now by the public and by policymakers will determine oil’s fate. The Greenpeace activists are right. Whether the pandemic marks the end of oil “is up to you.”
Trump Greenlights Drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, but Will Oil Companies Show Up? -- The Trump administration has announced that it is opening up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas development – the latest twist in a decades-long battle over the fate of this remote area. Its timing is truly terrible. Low oil prices, a pandemic-driven recession and looming elections add up to highly unfavorable conditions for launching expensive drilling operations. In the longer term, the climate crisis and an ongoing shift to a lower-carbon economy raise big questions about future oil demand. The motive for drilling in ANWR, I believe, is to score a major, precedent-setting victory over government policies that prioritize conservation over energy production and environmental advocacy groups that have fought for years to protect ANWR as "one of the finest examples of wilderness left on Earth." Capturing ANWR and transforming it into a locus of fossil fuel extraction would be a massive physical and symbolic triumph for politicians who believe that resource extraction is the highest use of public lands.President Trump seems to understand this, based on his recent comment that "ANWR is a big deal that Ronald Reagan couldn't get done and nobody could get done." But global, national and oil industry circumstances are overwhelmingly arrayed against Trump getting it done. ANWR is inarguably an ecological treasure. With 45 species of mammals and over 200 species of birds from six continents, the refuge is more biodiverse than almost any area in the Arctic.Today the oil industry is facing its greatest set of challenges in modern history. They include:
- A collapse in oil demand and prices due to the global pandemic, with a sluggish and uncertain recovery
- Companies canceling and reducing activity worldwide, with bankruptcies in the U.S. shale industry and drilling rig counts falling back to 1940 levels
- New uncertainty about future global oil demand as climate concerns push public interest and government policy toward electric vehicles, and automakers respond with new EV designs
- The growing possibility of Democratic victories in the November 2020 elections, which would likely lead to policies reducing fossil fuel use
- Increasing investor pressure on banks and investment firms to reduce or eliminate support for fossil fuel projects.
All of these factors compound the challenges of leasing and drilling in ANWR. Well costs there would be among the highest anywhere onshore in the U.S. Only one well has ever been drilled in the area, so new drilling would be purely exploratory and have a lower chance of success than in better-studied areas. Under these conditions, it would make more sense for companies that are active on Alaska's North Slope to pursue sites they currently have under lease, which pose much lower risk.
EPA Has Granted More Than 3,000 Pollution Monitoring Exemptions to Oil and Gas Industry Environmental regulators across the country granted more than 3,000 requests from polluting oil and gas operations, government facilities, chemical plants, and other facilities to stop pollution monitoring and other procedures intended to protect human health and the environment, an expansive two-month AP investigation revealed. The Trump administration, under pressure from the oil and gas industry, allowed for the exemptions in late March because of the coronavirus pandemic. "It's like saying, 'We're going to remove the radar guns and remove speedometers, but you still have to comply with the speed limit,'" said Eric Schaeffer, now head of the Environmental Integrity Project advocacy group. "That doesn't make sense." While EPA claims the monitoring waivers do not constitute a license to pollute at will, without effective monitoring there is no way to know. As a whole, the skipped leak inspections could be endangering oil and gas workers and allowing thousands of tons of greenhouse pollution to be emitted into the atmosphere, a former oil and gas engineer told the AP. The investigation's findings run counter to statements made by the EPA in June that the coronavirus was not impacting compliance and monitoring, and that the industry was not seeking relief. In fact, the industry actors aggressively sought and were granted exemptions, as early as March, to skip inspections of smokestacks, tank seals, flare stacks, and emissions monitoring systems, which could raise the risk of explosions. "As surely as night follows day there are going to be an increased number of deaths from those causes," Philip J. Landrigan, director of the Program for Global Public Health and the Common Good at Boston College, told the AP.
Faulty heat exchangers spill Venezuelan oil -An estimated 25,000 bl of oil spilled along western Venezuela's coastline in recent weeks came from faulty heat exchangers at state-owned PdV's El Palito refinery, three officials at the plant told Argus.Heat exchanger systems that use seawater as coolant for crude processing units were contaminated with oil when PdV operators attempted to increase fuel production, according to a refinery manager and two repair crew supervisors."The seawater discharged back into the Triste gulf by the heat exchanger systems are the source of the spills," the manager said. "We're doing everything possible to correct the problem."PdV, which has not commented officially on the spills, has been trying for months to replenish the country's depleted gasoline supplies by repairing its 140,000 b/d El Palito and 305,000 b/d Cardon refineries. Despite some technical support from Iran and China, fuel production has been limited and intermittent at best.At least three oil spills since early July have coincided with PdV attempts to boost gasoline and diesel production at El Palito. Higher pressures associated with increasing crude runs through the distillation tower and following through the 61,500 b/d fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) and other units are raising the volume of oil filtering into the heat exchangers through cracks in the systems. PdV crews are trying to patch up the cracks as they are detected, the supervisors said.Operators managed to raise gasoline output to about 16,000 b/d in July but every attempt to raise output further has opened more leaks that in turn force PdV to suspend operations pending more repairs.Currently El Palito is not producing any gasoline or diesel as the heat exchangers are repaired and cleaned, the manager said.Nearly all of PdV's 1.3mn b/d refining system in Venezuela is out of service, and the company has been mostly locked out of the international market because of credit constraints and US sanctions.The acute fuel shortage, briefly alleviated by Iranian shipments in late May and early June, has worsened again, bringing informal market prices to as much as $4/l. Diesel is easier to find thanks to a sanctions exception on humanitarian grounds, but the US is working to cut off that supply as well by the end of October.
Mauritius calls for aid in race to contain catastrophic oil spill - The island nation of Mauritius has declared a “state of environmental emergency” in what appears to be the worst oil spill and ecological crisis in the country’s history.The freighter ship that ran aground on a coral reef late last month off the coast of Mauritius has leaked over 1,000 tonnes of oil into the Indian Ocean, with government leaders urging for help as the island nation prepares to brace for the “worst case scenario,” says Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth.Now, the Japanese-owned MV Wakashio has split into two, spilling tonnes of additional oil from the ships’ remaining fuel tanks. Experts had previously predicted that with time and bad weather, the vessel would eventually fall apart and add to the current damage being done to the Mauritian coastline. Even though the size of the spill remains relatively low compared to big oil spills of the past, the location of this particular incident is of greater concern. The site of the vessel happens to lie at a famous coral reef in Pointe d’Esny, an internationally acclaimed sanctuary and conservation site known for its rare wildlife. Nature reserves and once-pristine lagoons near the area have reported an influx of oil leaking into their waters, posing life-threatening risks to thousands of precious marine species. “We are starting to see dead fish. We are starting to see animals like crabs covered in oil, we are starting to see seabirds covered in oil, including some which could not be rescued,” says Dr. Vikash Tatayah, conservation director at the Mauritian Wildlife Foundation. Despite warnings from local officials to stay away, thousands of residents have converged in a last-ditch effort to contain the spread of the spill. Images posted online showed volunteers making home made oil booms out of straw, sugarcane leaves and even human hair donated by residents of the island.
Japans Nagashiki says has scuttled part of Mauritius oil-spill ship (Reuters) - Japan’s Nagashiki Shipping, which owns the bulk carrier that ran aground on a reef in Mauritius and caused a large oil spill, said on Tuesday it has completed scuttling of the front part of the vessel on Monday as instructed by local authorities.The shipping company will continue planning with local authorities and specialists on the removal of the remaining part of the carrier from the reef, it said in a statement. Mauritius said last week it would scuttle the ship’s remains at sea in a way that would avoid further pollution or interfere with maritime routes, after taking in recommendations from various groups on how and where to sink the ship to conform with advice of French experts present on the island. Nagashiki said it has submerged the carrier in water designated by the local authorities. The MV Wakashio had about 3,800 tonnes of heavy oil and about 200 tonnes of light oil as fuel as of July 25 when it ran aground. Except for about 1,000 tons of oil that had spilled overboard almost all of the remaining oil on the ship was retrieved by August 12, and almost all lubricant and residues, which remained onboard, collected by August 23, the firm said. The company will continue to collect oil deposits on board and suspended matter while local authorities, people and an oil spill cleaning company are continuing to collect oil that has drifted to the coast, it said.
Japanese experts warn oil damage could kill mangroves in Mauritius(Kyodo) -- A Japanese disaster relief team said Tuesday the oil spilled from a grounded Japanese freighter off Mauritius in the Indian Ocean could kill mangroves if it is not cleaned up soon. The team composed of seven members, including five environment experts, has been conducting an on-site probe of the damage to the environment, especially the mangrove forests and coral reefs, since Friday, while providing on-site environment assistance to the Mauritius government. "In the heavily polluted areas, oil adhesion to pneumatophores (or aerial roots) can suffocate mangroves to death. Also, if the oil stays for long, its toxic substances can kill mangroves," Noriaki Sakaguchi, vice team leader and an ecosystem conservation expert at Japan International Cooperation Agency, said in an online briefing. While no dead or dying mangroves have been found so far, the team said oil coating on the pneumatophores of mangroves has been confirmed in all seven surveyed locations, with a wide area of damage found in two sites. Clearing oil from mangrove forests in a muddy environment, instead of a rocky one, is particularly difficult as the removal work may allow deeper penetration of the oil beneath the forests, according to the team. The group will start assessing the impact of oil spill on the Ramsar wetlands near the accident site on Thursday. Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi told a press conference Tuesday that the ministry is considering sending additional environment experts to the island nation. The second team has inspected 12 locations near the shipwreck, finding no apparent coral deaths caused by the oil spill and no evidence of oil on the seabed. However, ropes containing the spill and the wreck of the ship have destroyed corals, according to a team official, and the water near the accident site is murky as a result. The front section of the ship was towed to open water and sunk as instructed by local authorities after the wreckage was broken into two.
Oil spill in Mauritius calls for more efforts to safeguard coral reef ecosystems - On July 25, 2020, a Japanese cargo ship struck a reef on the southeast coast of Mauritius, leaking tons of oil into coral reefs, pristine turquoise water lagoons and unique ecosystems of the island nation. The grounded ship split up, releasing more oil in the sea that is home to some of the finest coral reefs and marine protected areas in the world. The oil spill has the potential of causing devastating and widespread impacts on the country that depends on her seas for food, livelihoods and tourism that accounts for 36% of Mauritius GDP and generates US$4.3 billion annually. Oil spill threatens the fishing industry as boats and fishing gear may be damaged. In the case of a massive spill, human health may be affected through direct contact, inhalation of the oil or consumption of contaminated seafood. While the country has declared a state of environmental emergency and disaster response is underway, the situation highlights the vulnerability of marine ecosystems and habitats such as mangroves, seagrasses and corals. Oil, a complex mixture of many chemicals, can kill corals, depending on species and exposure. Chronic oil toxicity impedes coral reproduction, growth, behavior, and development. The time of year when a spill happens is critical since coral reproduction and early life stages are particularly sensitive to oil. Efforts are already underway to better protect the underwater world. Just two months before the Mauritius oil spill; the International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI), a long-standing partner of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), adopted a Recommendation to safeguard the future of coral reefs. It recognizes the vulnerability of coral reefs to climate change, ocean acidification, land-based pollution such as nutrients and sediments from agriculture, sea-based pollution, overfishing, among other activities. Corals support a quarter of all marine life, provide at least half a billion people with food security and livelihoods; protect coastlines from damage by buffering shorelines against waves, storms and floods. Estimates indicate coral reefs account for $2.7 trillion per year in ecosystem service value. The Recommendation, adopted in May 2020, after more than 18 months of work and stakeholder consultations, aims to get coral reefs and related ecosystems prioritized and monitored with rigorous indicators within the Convention on Biological Diversity Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework being decided in May of 2021. It calls on countries to safeguard coral reef ecosystems, identifying a set of six coral related indicators for adoption and a further five indicators for priority development, to provide improved information on ecosystem integrity, function, intactness, and resilience
17 dead dolphins wash up on Mauritius beach near oil spill site (Reuters) - Seventeen dead dolphins washed up on Mauritius’s shore on Wednesday, a government official told Reuters, a month after an oil spill from a Japanese ship that ran aground caused a major ecological disaster in the area. “The dead dolphins had several wounds and blood around their jaws, no trace of oil however. The ones that survived, around ten, seemed very fatigued and could barely swim,” said Jasvin Sok Appadu from the fisheries ministry. The dead dolphins have been taken to the Albion Fisheries Research Centre for an autopsy, Appadu said. Results are expected on Wednesday night. A spokeswoman for local Mauritian environmental group Eco-Sud called for the autopsy results to be released publicly and said the group wanted to be present during the autopsy “to better understand why the dolphins died,” but was still waiting for a response from authorities. The spill came from the Japanese-owned MV Wakashio, which ran aground on July 25 and began to spill oil about a week later. The ship was scuttled Monday. The full impact of the spill is still unfolding, scientists say, and the damage could impact Mauritius and its tourism-dependent economy for decades. The wildlife at risk include the critically endangered Pink Pigeon, endemic to the island, the seagrasses, clownfish and mangrove forests, whose roots serve as nurseries for fish. The Mauritius Marine Conservation Society said 15 kilometers of coastline have been affected by the spill and it is moving towards the Blue Bay Marine park, home to 38 types of coral and 78 species of fish.
At least 40 dolphins die near oil spill in Mauritius - At least 40 dolphins have mysteriously died in an area of Mauritius affected by an oil spill from a Japanese boat, officials and witnesses said yesterday, as witnesses described the deaths of one mother dolphin and her baby. Environmentalists have demanded an investigation into whether the dolphins were killed as a result of the spill from a Japanese ship, which was scuttled on Monday after running aground in July and leaking oil. The death toll may rise: fisherman Yasfeen Heenaye said he saw between 25 and 30 apparently dead dolphins floating in the lagoon yesterday morning, among scores of the animals that fishermen were trying to herd away from the pollution. “There was a mother and her baby,” he said. “He was very tired, he didn’t swim well. “But the mum stayed alongside him, she didn’t leave her baby to go with the group. “All the way she stayed with him. She was trying to protect him.” He filmed as the calf wallowed on its side and died in front of them, floating on the waves. Heenaye, his boat running low on fuel, motioned to Reuben Pillay, who tracked the mother dolphin. She initially looked normal, he said. “But in a few minutes she went on her side, one fin in the water, and one out of the water and then she started flapping her tail really, really rapidly,” said Pillay, a professional drone operator and environmentalist who is providing video to Reuters. “She swam in circles in front of the boat, she moved her tail very violently and after about five minutes she just stopped moving, and she sunk. “We heard cries, I thought it was a woman on the boat – but they told me, no – it was the dolphin.” The mother dolphin stopped moving and eventually slowly sank, tail first, beneath the waves. The dead baby floated on the surface.
Thousands protest in Mauritius over dead dolphins, demand resignations - (Reuters) - Thousands of protesters demonstrated in the Mauritius capital Port Louis on Saturday to demand an investigation into an oil spill from a Japanese ship and the mysterious death of at least 40 dolphins that have been found near the site of the spill. Environmentalists have called for an investigation into whether the dolphins died as a result of the spill caused when the bulk carrier, the MV Wakashio, struck a coral reef last month. One protestor held a banner with a dolphin covered in oil reading “our lives matter” and another held one calling for the government to resign. Mauritian flags were waved across the packed square of St Louis Cathedral. “We do not trust the government and the diluted information they’ve been feeding us regarding the management and responses to the oil spill,” Fabiola Monty, 33 a Mauritian environmental scientist, told Reuters from the square. The government has said it will carry out autopsies on all the dead dolphins and has set up a commission to look into the oil spill. Two investigations are being carried out: one by the police on the crew’s responsibilities and one by a senior Shipping Ministry official on what happened to the ship. So far veterinarians have examined only two of the mammals’ carcasses, which bore signs of injury but no trace of oil in their bodies, according to preliminary autopsy results.
Bintulu MP calls for immediate clean up of ship’s oil spill on Igan River - Bintulu MP Dato Sri Tiong King Sing has called on the federal and state environmental protection authorities to take immediate steps to clean up an oil spill from a ship on Igan River on Aug 23. The Progressive Democratic Party president said the authorities not only need to rectify the issue seriously but also investigate its causes. “The oil spill incident had already been widely circulated on social media for several days And there should be no reason for the relevant departments to plead ignorance. Why allow the oil spill to spread uncontrollably to an extent of nine kilometres along the river,” he said in a statement last night. He took to task a sawmill, which is said to own the ship, for not acting alerting the authorities about the oil spill after it happened. “We need to question why the sawmill involved failed to immediately notify the relevant authorities when the incident occurred. They should have also taken the initiative to assist the authorities to quickly mitigate any further spread of the spilled oil.” Tiong, who is also Prime Minister’s Special Envoy to People’s Republic of China, said he received complaints from local residents that the Igan River had been severely polluted by the oil spill. “Not least, it has caused great hazard and inconvenience to the residents who rely on pumping the river for drinking water. The relevant departments must take this incident much more seriously.
Montara oil spill victims seek aid 11 years on - Friday marked the 11th anniversary of the Montara oil spill, in which hundreds and thousands of barrels of oil spilled into the Timor Sea following an explosion at an offshore rig. Despite more than a decade of suffering the impacts, the affected residents of Timor Island in Indonesia’s southernmost province East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) are still fighting for justice and demanding compensation from rig operator PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) Australasia and the Australian government. PTTEP Australasia is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Thai State-controlled PTTEP Pcl. Montara victim advocacy team head Ferdi Tanoni said on Friday in Kupang: “NTT residents, especially the ones living in West Timor, are demanding that the Australian government immediately compensate more than 200,000 residents that have suffered [from the oil spill]. Some have even passed away.” He added that his team demanded that President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to write a letter to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison regarding the issue. The oil spill occurred on August 21, 2009, following an explosion at the Montara oil rig. For 74 days, gas and oil from the rig gushed in the Timor Sea, approximately 690km west of Darwin and 250km southeast of Rote Island, East Nusa Tenggara. Ferdi alleged that then-Australian minister for natural resources and energy, Martin Ferguson, had downplayed the environmental impacts of the oil spill. But, he said the Australian government’s Montara Commission of Inquiry “quoted a baseless statement from the rig operator that between 300 and 400 barrels of oil were spilled every day. “It is estimated that the total area affected by the spill was around 90,000sq km.”
Oil spill off UAEs east coast forces closure of Kalba beach - Black sludge has washed up across three kilometres of pristine Kalba coastline after a suspected oil spill at sea. The slick caused the suspension of fishing activities and the partial closure of Kalba beach. Tuesday’s spill is the fourth along the east coast of the UAE this year and the second in the Sharjah enclave of Kalba. The slick even threatened the protected Al Qurm Nature Reserve – a haven for sea turtles and rare birds – but barriers prevented any damage. “Our inspectors and investigation team were immediately dispatched to the location,” Shamsa Al Ketbi, director of the support services at the Sharjah Environment and Protected Areas Authority, told The National. “The team had to close parts of Kalba Corniche until the clean up process is finalised.” The cause of the spill has not been established and the clean-up is expected to take up to three days. Fishing remains suspended. It is believed most oil spills are caused by rogue tankers cleaning their hulls in international waters. The sludge then washes ashore. The authority is working on establishing a monitoring system to spot spills before they reach the coastline. Fishermen said they noticed the oil sludge at Kalba fishing port early on Tuesday. “The smell was terrible and the water colour was brown to black,” said Saeed Sultan, 35. “I called my father and told him not to go fishing as oil sludges can stick to the fishing net and ruin it completely.” Mr Sultan said he visited Kalba beach on Wednesday and found a dead turtle washed up on the shore.
Turkey’s Black Sea find shapes its potential role as an energy producer - Turkey says its natural gas find in the Black Sea will likely be followed by further discoveries, altering the geopolitics of energy trade in its region. “It’s just the beginning,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said of Friday’s announcement that Turkey struck gas deep under its territorial waters. “The work will continue for exploration as well as drilling at the same time. We’re very hopeful that it will lead to other fields in the same area.” Ankara’s state-oil arm TPAO will continue offshore exploration near the 320 billion cubic meter Sakarya field where officials see “much greater potential” for hydrocarbons, Kalin said in an interview at the presidential office in Istanbul on Saturday. The discovery announced by Erdogan is already the largest of its kind in the Black Sea and proved the existence of sizable deposits deep under the seabed. Kalin said it also gave fresh impetus to Turkey’s search for more energy resources to be able to function as more than just a massive consumer and a conduit for cross-border gas trade. “Turkey will be an energy producing country. That’s a new dimension, a very significant one,” Kalin said. “It puts Turkey at a different level in terms of its strategic location, relations, regional and global affairs.” “Turkey is a premium gas market, which has never been significant on a global scale. The discovery really reinforces the country’s potential role as an energy producer in the region,” said Ashley Sherman, principal analyst on Caspian and Europe upstream at Wood Mackenzie. Another prospective area nearby is the eastern Mediterranean Sea, where Turkey is conducting exploratory work with a seismic research ship. Kalin said the Oruc Reis vessel will continue its survey in waters disputed by Greece and Cyprus, a conflict that’s fueling the tensions with Athens. “Whatever we find in the eastern Mediterranean, we’d like it to be shared by all. We’d like it to benefit all neighboring countries which have a shore,” Kalin said. “We do not want to see this as a zero-sum game.” Turkey is mired in territorial disputes with Greece and Cyprus in the Mediterranean Sea as it searches for oil and gas. France has temporarily increased its military presence to ward off Turkish steps, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday said the European Union was concerned over the increased tensions.
Oil Steady as Virus Offsets Hurricane Threat -- Oil was steady after a third straight weekly gain as the threat of back-to-back storms hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast and disrupting production was offset by signs of a coronavirus resurgence in parts of Asia and Europe. October futures traded near $42 a barrel in New York after falling 1.1% on Friday. Almost 60% of crude output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico production was closed as of midday Sunday as the region prepared for two approaching hurricanes. The systems -- Marco and Laura -- are coming from different directions and have the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage. Governments around the world, meanwhile, continue to tread a fine line between trying to halt the spread of Covid-19 and efforts to re-open their economies. While the pandemic is showing signs of stabilization in the U.S., it appears to be staging a comeback in Europe and Asia. U.S. benchmark crude futures have been rising -- albeit very gradually -- this month amid a steady decline in domestic crude and gasoline supplies, and tentative signs that demand is returning. That’s starting to encourage the return of production, however, with drillers in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico putting an additional 10 rigs to work last week for the biggest jump in activity this year. ”What’s going to keep the brakes on the price is what U.S. oil supply is going to do,” said Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. While the hurricanes are positive for prices, they’re very temporary, but the rising U.S. oil rig count reaffirms that spare capacity can come back and is enough to meet any price increase, he said West Texas Intermediate for October settlement added 0.1% to $42.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:24 a.m. in London. Brent for the same month was climbed 0.2% to $44.42 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after declining 1.2% on Friday. The global benchmark crude’s premium over WTI was $2.04, the same as Friday, which was the least at the close since July 27. Brent’s prompt timespread suggests concerns about over-supply are increasing. It was 57 cents a barrel in contango -- a market structure where prompt contracts are cheaper than later-dated ones -- compared with a contango of 22 cents at the end of July. Libya’s National Oil Corp. said Friday that it welcomed the country’s new cease-fire agreement and the nation should be able to resume exports when all of its facilities are freed from military occupation, potentially unleashing even more new supply at a time when the OPEC+ alliance is easing output curbs.
Oil prices climb as two hurricanes shutter U.S. offshore production (8/24) --Oil edged higher as production was disrupted by two storms approaching the U.S. Gulf Coast.Futures rose 0.8% in New York. Almost 58% of crude output, or more than 1 million barrels a day, in the Gulf of Mexico was closed as of midday Sunday. The storms Marco and Laura -- the latter of which is forecast to become a hurricane -- are coming from different directions and have the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage. The weather systems could force refineries to shut and also hit demand when they near land.Crude, and other risk assets including equities, received a boost on Monday amid a thaw in U.S.-China relations. President Donald Trump’s team was said to be privately seeking to reassure American companies that they can still do business with the WeChat messaging app in China.U.S. benchmark crude futures have been rising -- albeit very gradually -- this month amid a steady decline in domestic crude and gasoline inventories, and tentative signs that demand is returning. That’s starting to encourage the return of production, however, with drillers in the Permian Basin putting an additional 10 rigs to work last week for the biggest jump in activity this year.“The situation on the oil market over the next three days is likely to be determined partly by news from the Gulf of Mexico,” “The psychological effect should not be underestimated,” Weinberg said of the impact of the two storms on refining activity and oil production in the U.S. West Texas Intermediate for October added 32 cents to $42.66 a barrel at 10:24 a.m. in London. Brent for the same month rose 34 cents, or 0.8%, to $44.69. The global benchmark’s premium over WTI closed at its narrowest since July 27 on Friday. he shape of the oil futures curve has suggested concerns about oversupply have grown in recent week. On Friday, Brent futures for October traded at their biggest discount to the November contract since May, a structure known as contango. Speculators have also turned less bullish on WTI, last week trimming their bets to the smallest since May
Muted oil reaction to dual storm threat is 'remarkable,' Kilduff says - Two storms are barreling toward the Gulf Coast forcing a shutdown in oil operations, but the muted reaction in oil prices demonstrates just how closely the market is tied to a global recovery from Covid-19. "Due to the moribund demand for gasoline and diesel fuels these days, due to the pandemic, it is hard to get a rally going off this remarkable dual-storm threat, which itself is remarkable," Again Capital's John Kilduff told CNBC. Marco, which is expected to make landfall first, has weakened as it approaches the coast and was downgraded to a tropical storm on Sunday night. The other storm Laura, however, is strengthening and "could be more menacing," according to Kilduff. "Given that both storms appear modest based on current forecasts we see lower potential for a sustainable impact on crude ... We expect the elevated storm activity to offer modest but short lived support for both oil prices and refining margins," added Bank of America's Doug Leggate. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil benchmark, gained 28 cents, or 0.66%, to settle at $42.62 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude advanced 78 cents, or 1.76%, to $45.13. As of Sunday, about 57.6% of offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico had been shut-in, or roughly 1.07 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. government. The primary driving force for oil prices continues to be the unprecedented fall-off in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic, as well as worldwide producers' response to the plunge in prices. "Today is more of an opportunity to see that even such a sudden event is weak to really put aside the concerns that Covid-19 has brought upon market participants," said Bjornar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy's head of oil markets. "Yes, a dip in oil production provides a breath to traders, who have been seeing global output rising over the last weeks, amid a demand recovery lag. But what will really make a difference is news from the recovery front,"
Oil hits five-month highs as U.S. producers cut output ahead of hurricane - (Reuters) - Crude oil prices rose to a five-month high on Tuesday as U.S. producers shut most offshore output in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Laura even as rising coronavirus cases in Asia and Europe capped gains. Brent futures LCOc1 rose 73 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $45.86 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 rose 73 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $43.35. That was the highest closes for both benchmarks since March 5, the day before Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to agree on a new plan to cut output and about a week before the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. U.S. producers cut crude output ahead of Hurricane Laura at a rate approaching the level of 2005’s Hurricane Katrina and also halted most oil refining along the Texas/Louisiana coast. Laura is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane with 115 mile per hour (185 kph) winds before it strikes the coast near the Texas-Louisiana border early Thursday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. On Tuesday, producers had evacuated 310 offshore facilities and shut 1.56 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output, 84% of Gulf of Mexico’s offshore production, near the 90% outage that Katrina brought 15 years ago. “Today’s strength was again almost entirely attributable to storm concerns,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois, noting the storm factor would likely overshadow the weekly storage report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Analysts forecast U.S. crude stockpiles fell for a fifth week in a row last week, according to a Reuters poll conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) at 4:30 p.m. (2030 GMT) on Tuesday and the government on Wednesday. “Overall, hurricanes may be limiting supply this week ... but the market will soon again focus on the biggest hurricane of them all, COVID-19,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy. Europe is seeing a rise in coronavirus cases, including re-infection. Two re-infections were reported in Europe and one in Hong Kong. Elsewhere, U.S. and Chinese trade officials reaffirmed their commitment to a Phase 1 trade deal.
U.S. oil and gasoline futures tally highest finish since March as storms force output cuts in U.S. Gulf Coast - Oil and gasoline futures settled Tuesday at their highest since early March, as storms forced the shutdown of more than 80% of offshore crude-oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and prompted refinery cuts. Tropical Storm Marco made landfall Monday and was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday morning. Attention is focused on Laura, which was upgraded to a hurricane Tuesday morning and is expected to make landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. “Markets know that the hurricane shut-ins are usually transient, and it’s a bit too early to know whether the current ones will have a prolonged bearish effect on prices or not,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy, in a daily note. “Refineries might need to shut-in more runs due to flooding than upstream operators shut in crude supply,” so weaker demand for crude at the refineries may help to offset price-bullish supply constraints. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery CL.1, -0.09% CL00, -0.09% rose 73 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $43.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. October Brent crude BRNV20, +0.06%, the global benchmark, also gained 73 cents, or 1.6%, to $45.86 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Front-month prices for both benchmarks settled at their highest since March 5, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Interior Department’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, citing operator reports, estimated Tuesday that 84.3% of offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, or about 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, had been shut in, along with nearly 61% of natural-gas production. A number of refineries on the Gulf Coast, where almost half of the U.S. oil processing industry is located, have also suspended production ahead of Laura’s expected landfall, noted Eugen Weinberg, analyst at Commerzbank. While the refineries were reinforced following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, there is still the risk of flooding, which could prompt extended closures. Storms can also affect the transportation of crude oil and exports. It’s no surprise then that gasoline futures jumped 6.5% Monday in response to the storms, Weinberg said. A widening premium for October gasoline relative to November indicates market participants fear the potential of shortages, analysts said. On Tuesday, front-month September gasoline added 2.1% to $1.3959 a gallon—the highest finish since March 5. The most-active October contract gained 0.7% to $1.2685 a gallon. September heating oil , meanwhile, rose 1% to $1.2601 a gallon.
WTI Holds Near 6-Month Highs Amid Gulf Shut-Ins, Inventory Draws - Oil prices were higher today, driven in large part by significant shut-ins across the Gulf of Mexico. WTI traded back above $43.As Bloomberg's Kriti Gupta details, the Gulf of Mexico is responsible for 17% of U.S. offshore oil production, 82% of which has been shut in preparation for the storm (up from 58% yesterday). So the simple explanation for rising crude is less production means less supply and higher prices.It gets even thornier when you consider that 45% of total U.S. petroleum refining capacity also is located along the Gulf Coast.This is unlikely to be reflected in any inventory/production data released this week. API
- Crude -4.524mm (-4.3mm exp)
- Cushing -646k
- Gasoline -6.392mm (-2.7mm exp) - biggest draw since April 2019
- Distillates +2.259mm (-700k exp)
Analysts expected a fifth weekly crude draw in a row and a continuing trend of draws in Gasoline stocks also... API reported bigger than expected draws for Crude and Gasoline (with the latter's biggest drop in stocks since April 2019)... WTI closed at its highest for the front-month contract since early March...Graphics: BloombergOil was trading around $43.35 ahead of the print, and was little changed after the data."Markets know that the hurricane shut-ins are usually transient, and it's a bit too early to know whether the current ones will have a prolonged bearish effect on prices or not," said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy, in a daily note. "Refineries might need to shut-in more runs due to flooding than upstream operators shut in crude supply," so weaker demand for crude at the refineries may help to offset price-bullish supply constraints.
Oil steadies; virus concerns weigh as hurricane heads to U.S. - (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied on Wednesday, pressured by worries about the demand outlook during the coronavirus pandemic but buoyed as U.S. producers shut output in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Laura. Renewed worries over the pandemic, which has squeezed demand and sent prices to record lows in April, dampened market sentiment after reports this week of patients being re-infected, raising concerns about future immunity. Brent crude LCOc1 fell 22 cents to settle at $45.64 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 rose 4 cents to $43.39 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled at a five-month high on Tuesday. The U.S. energy industry was preparing for Hurricane Laura, forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane with heavy rains and catastrophic, 130 mile-per-hour (209 kph) winds that will drive ocean waters up to 30 miles (48 km) inland, forecasters said. Nine oil-processing plants that convert nearly 2.9 million barrels per day of oil into fuel, and account for about 15% of U.S. processing, were shutting down. Oil producers on Tuesday had evacuated 310 offshore oil facilities and shut 1.56 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output, 84% of Gulf of Mexico’s offshore production. “Oil traders will be preoccupied with the hurricane today,” said Tamas Varga of broker PVM. “Once the danger passes, demand considerations will come into focus again.”
Oil Near 5-Month High as Laura Menaces Refineries-- Oil held at a five-month high as the market braced for disruptions to production and refining from Hurricane Laura and after a further drop in U.S. crude stockpiles added to optimism that demand is recovering. Futures in New York were steady near $43 a barrel after closing at the highest since March 5 on Wednesday. Laura made landfall early Thursday at Cameron, Louisiana, near the border with Texas, as a Category 4 storm. While the hurricane’s path shifted away from refineries and ports in the Houston area, the stretch of coastline that will feel its full impact accounts for about a quarter of U.S. refining capacity. American crude inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels last week, according to an Energy Information Administration report, the fifth straight weekly decline. A drop in gasoline stockpiles to the lowest since December and an increase in refinery run rates provided more evidence that the energy demand recovery in the world’s largest economy is gathering pace. More than 80% of oil output in the Gulf of Mexico and almost 3 million barrels of a day of refining capacity has been shut ahead of Laura’s landfall, causing a spike in U.S. gasoline prices. It’s also disrupting energy flows, with trans-Atlantic shipping rates rising and more than 60 oil and refined product tankers in the western U.S. Gulf waiting for Laura to pass, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The hurricane has helped oil break out of its narrow range, although “I would have anticipated a stronger move on prices,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. “That’s because of concern over the coronavirus and continued demand destruction.” Prices West Texas Intermediate for October delivery declined 0.2% to $43.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:38 a.m. in London. The contract climbed 0.1% Wednesday following a 1.7% jump in the previous session. Brent for the same month added 0.1% to $45.64 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after falling 0.5% on Wednesday. Still, Laura is likely to have only a temporary market impact, with Covid-19 continuing to cloud the prospects for a more sustainable recovery in oil prices. The market may have recovered from the shock that saw WTI plunge below zero in April, but the oil industry continues to consolidate with prices stuck in the low $40s a barrel. Norway’s Equinor ASA announced it would trim its workforce in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. by 20% on top of previously announced cuts.
Oil Prices Decline After Laura Moves Inland -- Oil declined after Laura barreled into Louisiana, largely sparing the Texas Gulf Coast from widespread disruption to key energy infrastructure. Laura made landfall early Thursday near Cameron, Louisiana, as a Category 4 hurricane and has now weakened to a tropical storm. While the storm knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of people and impacted plants that produce chemicals and liquefied natural gas, southeast Texas ports and refineries -- including the largest U.S. refinery -- likely avoided the worst of it. Crude futures in New York fell less than 1% on Thursday, while gasoline futures dropped more than 5%. A stronger dollar also reduced the appeal for commodities priced in the greenback. “The damage is not as bad as anticipated, which is creating more sell pressure along the energy complex,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “The lower price of gasoline means worse refining margins potentially, meaning that there’s not going to be a lot of incentive to use a lot of crude quickly.” As the storm passes, traders are assessing the potential impact on both fuel production and consumption. Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Beaumont refinery in Texas will begin restarting Friday if an assessment shows no damage from Hurricane Laura, while its Baytown refinery on the Houston Ship Channel has already begun the restart process. Meanwhile, Magellan Midstream Partners LP’s East Houston terminal restored full operations at its refined products truck loading rack and the U.S. Coast Guard reopened the Port of Houston on Thursday. More than 80% of oil output in the Gulf of Mexico and almost 3 million barrels a day of refining capacity had been shut ahead of the storm, causing a spike in gasoline futures prices earlier this week. Since then, prices have retreated. Aside from the storm impact, a persistent inventory overhang as the coronavirus depresses demand continues to cloud the outlook for a sustained rebound in prices.
Oil prices slip as Hurricane Laura's blow unlikely to have sustained impact - Oil prices eased on Thursday as the market expected a quick recovery for production platforms shuttered ahead of a hurricane that churned through the Gulf of Mexico and slammed Louisiana. Brent crude futures for October, which expire on Friday, fell US55 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $45.09 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 35 cents or 0.8% to $43.04 a barrel. The storm hit Louisiana early Thursday with 150 mile-per-hour (240 kph) winds, damaging buildings, knocking down trees and cutting power to more than 400,000 people in Louisiana and Texas. Its storm surge was less than predicted, sparing inland plants from feared flooding. Oil producers on Tuesday had shut 1.56 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output, or 84% of the Gulf of Mexico's production, evacuating 310 offshore facilities. BP said Thursday it was already preparing to return to its company-operated facilities in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico to inspect for any potential damage from the storm. At the same time, refiners that convert nearly 2.33 million bpd of crude oil into fuel, and account for about 12% of U.S. processing, halted operations. "On the one hand refinery shutdowns reduced the demand for crude oil, but at the same time Gulf of Mexico production was shut in, nearly offsetting each other,"
Oil Gives Up Some Gains as Refiners Spared -- Oil was steady -- but still headed for a fourth weekly gain -- after Hurricane Laura swept through Louisiana and Texas without appearing to inflict major damage on the region’s energy infrastructure. Futures in New York traded near $43 a barrel after closing down 0.8% on Thursday. Laura came ashore as one of the most powerful hurricanes to ever hit Louisiana but has since weakened to a tropical storm. While it knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of people and impacted plants that produce chemicals and liquefied natural gas, southeast Texas ports and crude facilities -- including the largest U.S. refinery -- likely avoided the worst of it. More than 80% of oil output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and almost 3 million barrels a day of refining capacity had been shut ahead of the storm, causing a spike in gasoline and oil prices earlier in the week. Crude was also buoyed by data showing a fifth straight weekly decline in American stockpiles. “With little oil infrastructure damage reported so far, and with shut-in production likely to return in the coming days, it looks as though oil will remain trading in this fairly narrow range that we’ve become accustomed to,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank NV. “Demand from refiners should recover fairly quickly.” With the passing of Laura, investor attention now turns back to the coronavirus and the pace of global energy demand recovery. About half of India’s trucking fleet is still idled, leading to a bleak outlook for diesel consumption there, while gasoline and diesel sales in the U.K. are still about 11% below pre-lockdown levels. In China, there’s only expected to be a small boost in energy demand from infrastructure projects and post-flood recovery efforts. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery was unchanged at $43.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:27 a.m. in London. The contract has risen 1.7% so far this week. Brent for the same month added 0.1% to $45.14 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after falling 1.2% on Thursday. The more active November contract climbed 0.1% to $45.66. Crude futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange fell 0.4% to 293.6 yuan a barrel, paring its advance this week to 2.6%. Brent’s three-month timespread was $1.28 a barrel in contango -- where prompt contracts are cheaper than later-dated ones -- from $1.41 in contango at the end of last week. The change in the market structure of the global crude benchmark suggests concerns about over-supply have eased slightly.
Oil prices dip as producers, refiners avoid worst of hurricane - Brent crude futures for October fell 4 cents to settle at $45.05 a barrel, before expiring on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 fell 7 cents to $42.97 a barrel. Both benchmarks notched weekly gains of about 1.5%, with WTI rising for a fourth straight week. The benchmarks hit five-month highs during the week as U.S. producers cut crude output ahead of Laura at a rate close to the level of 2005’s Hurricane Katrina. “The oil trade has been featured by strong advances at the start of the week as a sizable amount of storm premium was pumped into the market ahead of Hurricane Laura, followed by a major erasure of hurricane premium following the storm’s arrival as limited impact on offshore crude production or refinery activity was indicated,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates. The oil market has had an unusually long spell of low volatility, analyst Eugen Weinberg at Commerzbank said, in contrast with stock markets. “It didn’t even react to a weaker dollar. There’s no impulse in either direction. It has seldom had so little volatility for such a long period, especially given the dynamic situation on the demand and supply sides,” Weinberg said. Laura, since downgraded to a tropical depression, hit Louisiana early on Thursday with winds of 150 miles per hour (240 km per hour). The storm killed at least six people, damaged buildings and felled trees. Power was cut to hundreds of thousands in Louisiana and Texas, but refineries were spared from massive flooding.
Oil prices edge lower, but tally a weekly gain after Hurricane Laura spares refineries – Oil futures ended modestly lower Friday, but tallied a weekly gain a day after Hurricane Laura made landfall on the Gulf Coast as a Category 4 storm but refineries were spared from extensive damage. Now the industry waits to see how traders respond on Monday. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery fell 7 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $42.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Based on the front-month contracts, prices saw a weekly climb of 1.5%, which represents their fourth weekly rise in a row according to Dow Jones Market Data reported MarketWatch. October Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 4 cents, or 0.09%, at $45.05 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, ahead of the contract’s expiration at Monday’s settlement. For the week, front-month contract prices climbed by 1.6%. “No reports of major damage to refineries or massive flooding should allow the industry to bounce back quickly,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group, in a Friday note. “While refineries may stay shut for weeks, they will use this opportunity to do maintenance, and after some seasonal weakness in prices, petroleum should resume its longer-term upward trend.” Hurricane Laura was responsible for at least six deaths and caused extensive damage as it came ashore and moved inland Thursday. However, production from oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and activity at refiners in the Gulf Coast, the heart of the U.S. oil-processing industry, was expected to rebound quickly.
Oil Demand Recovering At Record Price -- Rigzone -- August 27, 2020 - World oil demand has grown at a record pace – by 13 million barrels per day (bpd) – in the past four months since the nadir of the COVID-induced collapse in April, IHS Markit reported Tuesday. Presently at 89 percent of pre-COVID levels, global oil demand has risen from 78 percent in April, the consultancy noted in a written statement emailed to Rigzone. The firm attributes the increase to relaxation of some COVID-19 restrictions. It predicts demand should continue to go up until leveling off at 92 to 95 million bpd through the first quarter of 2021. It pointed out the projection equates to roughly 92 to 95 percent of prior year levels. The anticipated plateau in demand will stem primarily from subdued air travel and commutes, IHS stated. “The meteoric rise of world oil demand from the lowest lows of the COVID crash is going to come up just short of a full comeback, at least for now,” remarked Jim Burkhard, IHS Markit’s vice president and head of oil markets. “For demand to fully return, travel – especially air travel and commuting to work – needs to get back to normal. And that won’t happen until there is containment of the virus and effective vaccines.” IHS Markit also stated the number of air flights globally is approximately 30 percent lower than February levels – a marked improvement from the 78-percent shortfall in April. However, it observed that actual jet fuel consumption remains 50 percent lower than prior-year levels because the number of long-haul flights has not recovered to the extent of short-haul flights. Burkhard also pointed out the expected plateau in oil demand growth does not mean a return of the supply overhang that caused prices to plunge in April. He explained that production restraint by the OPEC+ alliance as well as lower projected U.S. output should allow markets to continue rebalancing.
Aramco Shakes Up Top Management -- Saudi Aramco reshuffled its senior management and created a division focused on “portfolio optimization,” as the world’s biggest oil producer adapts to low crude prices and seeks new ways to raise cash. The Saudi state energy company appointed senior vice president Abdulaziz Al Gudaimi to lead a new Corporate Development team that will “assess existing assets” and boost access to “growth markets,” it said in a statement on Sunday. He will report to Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser and start on Sept. 13. “The organization will support rapid and effective decision-making on the company’s portfolio,” Aramco said. Aramco also named Nasir Al Naimi as acting head of the upstream business -- the exploration and production arm -- while Mohammed Al Qahtani will take over the downstream unit, according to people familiar with the situation, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak to media. The downstream business involves refining, chemicals, pipelines and fuel retailing, and was previously led by Al Gudaimi. Aramo is adjusting to weaker energy prices as the coronavirus pandemic hammers the global economy, with Brent crude having fallen 32% this year to around $45 a barrel. The company is slashing investment so it can fulfill its pledge to pay a $75 billion dividend in 2020, even as its debt surges. Most of the dividend goes to the Saudi state, which needs the funds as it faces a major revenue squeeze. Earlier this year, Aramco hired advisers for a potential multi-billion dollar sale of a stake in its pipeline business. And Chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan said in February there were non-core assets that could be monetized. In another potential sign of Aramco’s changing priorities, Bloomberg reported it suspended plans for a $10-billion refinery in China. The project was unveiled with great fanfare last year. Aramco said in a statement on Monday it was still working with its Chinese partners and committed to the Chinese market.
Pompeo in Middle East to cement Israel-Gulf alliance against Iran - US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo began a five-day visit to the Middle East in Israel before travelling on to Sudan, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Pompeo met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Monday, where, according to the US State Department, the two discussed “regional security issues related to Iran’s malicious influence, establishing and deepening Israel’s relationships in the region, as well as cooperation in protecting the US and Israeli economies from malign investors,” meaning China. In a brief press briefing after their meeting, Netanyahu praised Washington for its unilateral sanctions regime against Iran, which he wildly accused of “targeting countries with rockets, with terrorism, with pillage and plunder and murder— Murder—all over the Middle East.” He also boasted that the US would continue to “ensure Israel’s qualitative edge” in terms of military might in the Middle East, even as it steps up arms sales to the Persian Gulf oil sheikdoms. While Israel likes to promote itself as Washington’s key ally in the region, Pompeo made it very clear who was the master in this relationship and that China’s increasing trade and investment ties with Israel were unacceptable. The Secretary of State allowed that the two discussed “the challenge that the Chinese Communist Party presents to the entire world.”
Israel launches air attacks at Hezbollah posts on Lebanon border Israel said it carried out air attacks on Hezbollah observation posts in Lebanon on Wednesday after shots were fired from across the border towards its troops the previous evening. The country's military had said earlier that a "security incident" was unfolding in the vicinity of Manara near the UN-demarcated Blue Line border between the two nations. "During operational activity in northern Israel last night, shots were fired from Lebanon toward IDF troops," the Israeli army wrote on Twitter. "We responded with fire, & our aircraft struck Hezbollah observation posts near the border. This is a severe event & we remain ready to combat any threat to our borders." No Israeli soldiers were wounded in the firing, the military added. Soldiers deployed illumination flares, smoke shells and live fire after the shots from the Lebanese side of the frontier, it said. In a televised statement later on Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah described the border flare-up as an "important and sensitive" matter but refused "for now" to further comment on it. Israel and Lebanon are still technically at war, and United Nations force UNIFIL is tasked with monitoring the ceasefire. Hours earlier, Lebanon had rejected an Israeli call to reform a UN peacekeeping force patrolling the border ahead of a UN Security Council vote to renew its mandate. The incident also comes after Hezbollah announced on Saturday that it had brought down an Israeli drone flying over the Blue Line. Last September, Hezbollah vowed to shoot down Israeli drones flying over Lebanon, following an incident a month earlier when two drones packed with explosives targeted the group's stronghold in south Beirut.
US stages military buildup to enforce deal to steal Syria’s oil - The US military over the past week has been sending convoys across the border from Iraq into Syria in what appears to be a significant escalation of the US military intervention in the war-ravaged country. According to sources in Syria, the convoys have come across at the al-Tanf crossing, where the US military maintains a garrison near the triple frontier between Iraq, Syria and Jordan. They have then traveled to US bases in the northeastern Syrian governorates of Deir ez-Zor and Al-Hasakah. Witnesses said that the convoys included tanks, armored vehicles, oil tankers and trucks bearing weapons and logistical equipment. The buildup of the US forces east of the Euphrates River follows the revelation that Washington has concocted a deal with a newly minted American oil company, Delta Crescent Energy LLC, which has been signed by the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces, the proxy ground troops employed by Washington in Syria, which consist mainly of the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia. Among the equipment being trucked in by the US military are believed to be components for two modular refineries to assist the company in exploiting and marketing Syrian oil. This agreement constitutes a war crime under the Geneva Conventions, which bar the exploitation of the natural resources of an occupied country for the benefit of the occupier. In the case of the US occupation of Syria, this constitutes an even more blatant act of international piracy, as the US military presence in the country has been authorized neither by the Syrian government nor the United Nations.
Libya calls for cease-fire following a failed rebel assault on Tripoli- Libya’s Turkish-backed government announced a cease-fire, months after inflicting a heavy defeat on Russian-supported military commander Khalifa Haftar, raising hopes for an end to a spiraling proxy war. The announcement on Friday and a reciprocal call for a truce from the head of the eastern-based legislature Aguileh Saleh come on the heels of United Nations-mediated talks in Geneva this week, and a phone call between the Russian and Turkish foreign ministers. Their countries have emerged as key power brokers in the North African nation that has the continent’s biggest oil reserves. Haftar, aided by Russian mercenaries, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, had led a failed offensive to capture the capital, Tripoli, from the internationally recognized government. A Turkish military intervention helped rout his self-styled Libyan National Army earlier this year, and Haftar’s forces fell back to Sirte, the gateway to key oil assets. The truce announcement may bolster efforts to restart oil fields and terminals that have been closed under orders from Haftar since January, costing the country almost $8 billion in lost revenues. The National Oil Corp. welcomed calls from both sides to resume crude output, but said in a statement armed groups needed to leave oil installations before it could lift force majeure. The powerful interior minister in the Tripoli-based government, Fathi Bashagha, said in an interview that the cease-fire wouldn’t have happened without support from the U.S., Turkey, Egypt and Qatar. “It must be followed by a serious political dialogue that leads to a settlement,” he said. “Those steps must be taken quickly.” In some of the first international reaction, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi welcomed the announcement as did the U.S. German Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Adebahr said that from first reports it “could be an important step.” The UN, which also helped mediate the cease-fire, acclaimed the move. In his statement, Saleh, who has an uneasy alliance with Haftar, backed a proposal to resume oil production and freeze revenues in a foreign account held by the central bank while an arrangement is made to fairly distribute the money. But only Haftar can make that decision and he’s yet to comment on Friday’s developments. Earlier this week, a Haftar-aligned force said it would permit the export of stored fuel to make space for badly needed gas amid power shortages.
France & Italy Join Greece In Major Naval War Games 'Show Of Force' Against Turkey - President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to make "no concessions" with Greece amid the rapidly escalating eastern Mediterranian gas exploration dispute, declaring Turkey will "do whatever is necessary" to secure its territorial rights in Wednesday remarks commemorating an ancient battle which saw Seljuk Turks victorious during an engagement with the Byzantine empire in the 11th century. "We don't have our eye on someone else's territory, sovereignty and interests, but we will make no concessions on that which is ours," Erdogan said, while urging that Greece must "avoid wrongs that will be the path to ruin". He underscored "We will not compromise what is ours... We are determined to do whatever is necessary."This even as Macron's France has jumped fully onboard to defend Greece and Cyprus' cause in preventing breach of their maritime territory and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ).France has since confirmed deployment of its ‘Lafayette’ frigate and three Rafale fighter jets to Cyprus, also as what's being described as a "massive maritime exercise" is underway in the eastern Mediterranean on Wednesday involving Greece, Cyprus, France and Italy.Called the “Eunomia” military exercise, it's a clear and firm signal to Turkey meant to - as Greece's defense minister said, reinforce “the rule of law as part of the policy of de-escalating tensions.”Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos spelled out specifically that—“the initiative… aims to demonstrate the commitment of the four European Mediterranean countries to the rule of law as part of the policy of de-escalating tensions.”The drills are set to run from Wednesday through Friday of this week.
Kim Jong Un reportedly in a coma as his sister Kim Yo Jong takes control -- North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un has fallen into a coma, a former South Korean official is claiming on the heels of reports that the northern leader hasceded some of his power to his younger sister.Chang Song-min, a former aide to late South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, has alleged that the Hermit Kingdom’s honcho has become seriously ill amid speculation about his limited public appearances this year, the Mirror reported.“I assess him to be in a coma, but his life has not ended,” he told South Korean media.The former aide added that the leader’s younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, was poised to help lead the country. “A complete succession structure has not been formed, so Kim Yo Jong is being brought to the fore as the vacuum cannot be maintained for a prolonged period,” he said. His claims come after South Korean spies revealed that the 33-year-old sibling now serves as his “de facto second-in-command,” though she has not been designated his successor.In a closed-door meeting with lawmakers, the National Intelligence Service said the power shift partly seeks to “relieve (Kim’s) stress from his reign and avert culpability in the event of policy failure,”the Yonhap News Agency reported.“Kim Yo Jong, the first vice department director of the Workers’ Party Central Committee, is steering overall state affairs based on the delegation,” the agency reportedly said.Kim has only been seen in public a handful of times this year after rumors swirled that he was clinging to life in April due to a botched heart operation.
Another hospital visit by Japan PM Abe stokes health worries - (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited a Tokyo hospital on Monday for a second time within days, stoking concern about his ability to stay on as leader due to health issues and fatigue from tackling the coronavirus pandemic. Government spokesman Yoshihide Suga said Abe was at the hospital for the follow-up of a medical check a week ago when his examination lasted 7-1/2 hours, fuelling worries about his health. But major broadcaster Nippon TV said Abe was being treated for a chronic illness rather than a check-up, citing multiple unidentified government and ruling party sources. It added that Abe was scheduled to go to his office in the afternoon. “I was informed that he’s getting an additional exam after last week’s exam,” Suga, who is also the chief cabinet secretary and is seen as one of the main contenders for Abe’s job, told a regular news conference. “The premier himself said the other day that he wanted to return to work.” Abe is Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, surpassing on Monday a record for longest consecutive tenure as premier that is now half a century old and set by his great-uncle Eisaku Sato. That achievement added to speculation that Abe could resign after reaching the milestone. In office since 2012 in his second stint as prime minister, Abe had resigned from his first term in 2007 because of struggles with ulcerative colitis, which he now keeps in check with medicine that was not previously available. The prime minister’s office did not give a detailed explanation of his hospital visits, but close aide Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said last week’s visit was a regular check-up and he was “not at all” worried about Abe’s health. Abe has suffered a slide in public opinion polls to one of the lowest levels since he took power, fuelled by what respondents see as his haphazard handling of the coronavirus and a string of scandals.
Shinzo Abe, Japan's Longest-Serving Postwar Leader, Resigns As Health Deteriorates - Following repeated hospitalizations over the past few weeks stemming from a flareup of his chronic ulcerative colitis (which causes the PM to have explosive, difficult-to-control, bowel movements that must be controlled with medication), Japanese Prime and Liberal Democrat Party leader Minister Shinzo Abe officially resigned Friday morning, marking the end of his reign - the longest of any postwar leader in the world's third-largest economy. Abe called a press conference early Friday morning and announced that he planned to step down as party leader and PM, though he will stay on in a caretaker capacity until a successor is chosen. Japanese stocks plunged on the news, with the Nikkei 225 falling from 23310 to 22678 within minutes of the first headline, before bouncing off the lows. Abe has no clear successor, and his resignation is expected to set off a heated contest for the premiership at a time when Japan is struggling from the delayed 2020 Olympics and a coronavirus outbreak that refuses to fade. Party Secretary General for the Upper House of the Diet Hiroshige Seko said that Abe had decided to resign so his health wouldn't "cause trouble." The PM, whose term officially ends in September 2021, is expected to stay on until a new party leader is elected and approved by Japan's parliament, the National Diet. Abe famously and abruptly resigned from his first stint in office back in 2007 due to his health. But somehow, he made a political comeback years later and was reelected in 2012. Shortly after Abe's victory in 2012, we predicted that "diarrhea" might be one of the main stumbling blocks of his tenure. And while we perhaps underestimated Abe's staying power, it looks like, in the end, the prediction proved surprisingly prescient. His resignation comes just days after he officially bested his great-uncle as Japan's longest serving prime minister. On Monday, Abe officially clinched the title of Japan's longest serving prime minister by consecutive days in office, besting the record of his uncle Eisaku Sato, who served 2,798 days from 1964 to 1972 as leader of Japan. Abe's family has been at the apex of Japanese politics since the postwar period began: his great-grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, also served as PM. Abe's decision to resign in 2007 set off a period in Japanese politics known as "the revolving door" as the country endured 7 leaders in a decade, including Abe himself, until Abe was reelected in 2012. Abe has struggled with the chronic condition since he was a teenager and has said the condition was controlled with treatment. However, after his recent hospital visits were reported, top officials from Abe's Cabinet and ruling party spoke out to say the PM badly needed time to rest.
Tokyo considers long-range missiles for use in first strikes - The Japanese government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is continuing its remilitarization drive, recently stating it was considering acquiring long-range missiles capable of striking targets in China and North Korea. Doing so would be a clear violation of the country’s constitution, which explicitly bars Tokyo from waging war overseas or maintaining war material. The purpose of acquiring such weaponry is to have the ability to launch a first strike on an enemy on the pretext that it was preparing to attack Japan. In other words, Tokyo wants the ability to be able to launch an illegal pre-emptive war. In an interview with the New York Times on August 16, Defense Minister Taro Kono evaded the question of long-range missiles, no doubt fearing that being too open about the government’s plans could trigger anti-war protests. “Logically speaking, I won’t say it’s a zero percent (chance). The government hasn’t really decided anything yet,” he declared. On July 31, a ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) committee comprised of senior party officials approved a proposal to acquire long-range, offensive missiles. It is now under discussion by the government’s National Security Council (NSC), which will finalize new military plans by the end of September. The proposal stated, “Our country needs to consider ways to strengthen deterrence, including having the capability to halt ballistic missile attacks within the territory of our adversaries.”
India to hold national college tests despite surging virus infections - (Reuters) - More than 2 million Indian students will sit for admission tests to medical and engineering schools next week, the government said on Wednesday, despite growing concern that the move could fuel a jump in coronavirus infections. India reported more than 60,000 infections, maintaining the world’s highest single-day caseload since August 7, a Reuters tally showed. With 3.2 million cases, it ranks after the United States and Brazil, though its 59,449 deaths are far fewer. Now the government is pushing for a return to normalcy to lessen the economic pain, after having imposed a strict early lockdown of India’s 1.3 billion people in March. “We are very mindful of the safety of our students, we will take full precautions,” Education Minister Ramesh Pokhriyal told state radio, adding that the tests had to be held to ensure students did not lose a year. Already twice postponed this year, the tests will be spread over several days and held at more centres than usual, to ensure there is no crowding. But many students have to travel long distances and there was a risk of infections, said the All-India Students’ Union, a leftist group that represents university students. It urged students to wear black armbands and join online protests to put pressure on the government to delay the tests until infections fall. Swedish climate activist Greta Thurnberg also waded into the dispute, urging a postponement. “It’s deeply unfair that students of India are asked to sit national exams during the COVID-19 pandemic and while millions have also been impacted by the extreme floods,” Thurnberg said on Twitter on Tuesday. Parts of eastern India are also struggling with floods caused by annual monsoon rains
In India, coronavirus has created a ‘crisis within a crisis’ by bringing migration abroad to a halt - International migration brings India billions of dollars and gives millions of its citizens jobs. Not this year. In 2019, India had the largest diaspora in the world, which was sending back billions of dollars in remittances and contributing significantly to the economy. This year has changed everything. The coronavirus pandemic has upended life, leading to job losses, travel restrictions and visa limbos. For travellers and students, the standstill has been infuriating. But for millions of international migrants, including from India, the extraordinary disruption has meant threatened or lost livelihoods. The International Labour Organisation calls this a “crisis within a crisis”: “Tens of millions of migrant workers, forced to return home because of the Covid-19 pandemic after losing their jobs, face unemployment and poverty in their home countries…Migrant workers have found themselves stranded in host countries without access to social protection...Even those with jobs may be taking reduced wages and living in cramped worksite residences where social distancing is impossible.” It is hard to predict a return to normal, but academics say it may not happen until 2021 – and possibly, not even after.Between 1990 and 2019, migration from India increased threefold, making it the largest country of origin for migrants. Last year, it had a 17.5 million-strong diaspora around the world. Of these, some estimates say, eight to nine million lived in six countries in one region alone: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait in the Persian Gulf. Half of the migrants to the Persian Gulf were unskilled, 30% semi-skilled, and only the remaining 20% skilled. Their conditions changed precipitously in February and March of this year, as the coronavirus pandemic barrelled through the world. Many were left jobless, and some homeless. Desperate and despairing, they beseeched the Indian government to find them a way home, but so far, several months later, only 878,000 Indians have been repatriated through the Vande Bharat mission.
World Bank’s ‘Mobilizing Finance for Development’ Not Financing Development -- The World Bank leadership must urgently abandon its ‘Maximizing Finance for Development’ (MFD) hoax. Instead, it should resume its traditional multilateral development bank role of mobilizing funds at minimal cost to finance developing countries.Funding is urgently needed for Covid-19 containment, relief and recovery efforts, to prevent recessions becoming protracted depressions and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The World Bank’s MFD – a reheated version of its 2015 Billions to Trillions: Transforming Development Finance (B2T) campaign – promised to leverage billions of ODA into trillions of development finance. However, MFD has failed to achieve its purported objective to fill the estimated US$4~5 trillion annual SDGs funding gap. Blended finance and public private partnerships (PPPs) are its two main instruments for such leveraging without offering evidence that either can and will deliver development projects much better than traditional public procurement. Both benefit private finance at the expense of the public interest, particularly by increasing the risks of government contingent liabilities. Increasing such exposure is presented as an unavoidable cost of raising additional finance. The Bank has long claimed that private finance offers the best solution to pressing development and welfare concerns. Its MFD strategy urges using public money to leverage private finance, and capital markets to transform bankable projects into liquid securities. It presumes that most developing countries cannot achieve the SDGs’ Agenda 2030 with their own limited fiscal resources, especially as overseas development assistance (ODA) becomes increasingly scarce. The strategy envisages multilateral development banks (MDBs) and development finance institutions increasing financial leverage through securitization to attract private investment, particularly by institutions. It would deploy scarce public resources to ‘de-risk’ such financing arrangements by transforming ‘bankable’ development projects into tradable assets. Thus, governments bear more of the risks and costs of greater financial fragility. The MFD approach had mobilized only US$0.37 of additional private capital for every US$1 of public money invested in low-income countries (LICs), according to an April 2019 study. Leverage ratios were generally low across sectors, and lowest for LIC and middle-income country (MIC) infrastructure.
Historic Contraction in Rich Economies Presages Long Climb Back – WSJ —The world’s rich economies experienced the deepest contraction in at least six decades in the spring, according to fresh data published Wednesday, while continuing outbreaks of the novel coronavirus mean their path back to pre-pandemic levels of output likely will be fraught. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Wednesday said the combined economic output of its 37 members—most of which are rich—was 9.8% lower in the second quarter than it was in the first, the largest decline since records began in 1960. The previous largest fall in output during a single quarter was the 2.3% drop recorded in the first quarter of 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis. Surveys and other data indicate that economic activity began to recover as early as May, when a number of countries lifted some of the restrictions designed to contain the virus. Economists expect to see a strong rebound in the quarter that runs through September, with the snap back in activity largest in those economies that saw the deepest declines in the second quarter, reasoning that the depth of those contractions reflected the severity and duration of lockdowns that have since been largely brought to an end. But there are already signs that resurgent infection rates and the freshly imposed restrictions designed to contain them are weighing on growth, and will continue to do so until a vaccine becomes widely available. “The global economy is turning around, and the worst is probably behind us,” said Jerome Jean Haegeli, chief economist at Swiss Re. “But the situation is serious. Lost output is lost.”The U.K. saw the largest decline in gross domestic product during the period, a drop of 20.4% that was more than double the 9.5% decline recorded by the U.S. Finland saw the smallest drop, a 3.2% decline in output that was slightly smaller than South Korea’s 3.3%. By contrast, China—which isn’t an OECD member—saw its economy expand by 11.5%, reflecting the fact that it was the first country to suffer an outbreak of the virus, and the first to lock its economy down and then ease those restrictions.
Covid-19: Carmageddon Beckons Unless Work from Home Continues - With social distancing likely to be the norm over the next several years, the notion of sardine-packing residents into trains, buses and trams is obviously no longer viable if Australia is to contain outbreaks of COVID-19. This has raised concerns that capital city traffic congestion could worsenafter restrictions ease, with commuters tipped to shun public transport and opt for the security of their own cars: Melbourne could emerge from the pandemic with worse congestion, with surging truck numbers tipped to fuel future traffic snarls as people shun public transport. New data from obtained by the Herald Sun shows thousands of previously unseen trucks and cars flooded Melbourne streets as restrictions were eased. The figures, collected by Here Technologies, tracked movements between April and June reveal an alarming uptick in traffic despite many people working from home and have sparked warnings Melbourne is heading for a congestion crunch. The number of trucks thundering down Punt Rd rose by nearly a quarter over this time while the Tullamarine recorded 289,798 extra truck journeys over the space of a month. The research also showed 30 per cent of people are receiving online orders once per week, up from 17 per cent before restrictions were introduced. Here Technologies director of business development, Daniel Antonello said these were new challenges likely to create bigger gridlock problem as people return to work. “We believed its going to be very congested and its obvious it’ll happen pretty quickly,” he said. “As people were going to work and deliveries remained up we saw a glimpse of that. “There was much more traffic in Melbourne in July than in April but much of the population was still working from home.” Mr Antontello said authorities would have to address a bottleneck of extra motorists because of concerns over public transport. This view is partly corroborated by a reported boom in used car sales: Used cars are increasingly hot property in Australia, with a new report recording a 30 per cent surge in prices since April as buyers rush to avoid public transport and new car dealers face stock shortages.
At Least 13 Killed In Peru Nightclub Stampede Triggered By Police 'Social Distancing' Raid - In an example of COVID-19-related law enforcement gone horribly awry, 13 people were killed in a deadly stampede, as patrons tried to flee a surprise police raid on a crowded Lima, Peru nightclub on Saturday night. At least 6 people were seriously injured, including 3 cops. Orlando Velasco Mujica, general of the Peruvian National Police Police, told CNN that police were summoned to the Thomas Restobar in the Los Olivos district of Lima, Peru's capital city, on Saturday evening. They were ordered to shut down an illegal party, where officials believed more than 120 people were in attendance. Peru is struggling with one of Latin America's deadliest and most devastating outbreaks. Strict docial distancing measures have been mandated nationwide, along with a 10 pm curfew in an effort to slow the virus's spread. Despite taking strict preventative measures early on, Peru has racked up more than 576,000 cases, and more than 27,000 deaths, according to JHU. The country has Latin America's second-highest infection rate. Peru ordered the closure of nightclubs and bars back in March, and banned extended family gatherings on Aug. 12. According to an official statement delivered to CNN, the Ministry of the Interior reported that the police did not use "any type of weapon or tear gas to clear the premises." When people began to flee the 2nd floor venue, they were crushed on the steep stairs. Already, 23 people have been arrested, and officials are looking to hold the owners of the nightclub responsible.
Canada’s Liberal government slashes COVID-19 emergency aid - Canada’s Justin Trudeau-led Liberal government is dramatically scaling back the financial assistance provided the millions of workers who have lost their jobs due to the COVID-19 pandemic. On Thursday, Chrystia Freeland, the newly-appointed finance minister, announced that the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) will be terminated at the end of September, and that the financial aid for the vast majority of the more than 4.5 million jobless workers now dependent on the CERB for their livelihood will be slashed by 20 percent. This attack on working people and their families is central to the ruling elite’s homicidal back-to-work and back-to-school drive, which is aimed at forcing workers to return to unsafe workplaces so as to generate profits for big business and investors. The majority of those now receiving the CERB, which pays a miserly $500 a week, will be transitioned to Employment Insurance (EI). This change will result in most cases in a 20 percent cut in their weekly assistance, from the lordly sum of $500 to just $400. In steps that only highlight how impoverished the EI program has become after decades of Liberal and Conservative cuts, the government has temporarily eased the number of hours of work needed to obtain benefits and raised the minimum weekly payout. However, overall, eligibility requirements remain much more stringent than for the CERB. EI claimants can be required at any time to prove they are actively seeking employment. Failure to do so can result in sanctions, including the loss of all benefits. Under EI rules, even if they cannot find work, many of those now unemployed will be threatened after just 26 weeks with the loss of all EI benefits and destitution. All of this will, and is meant, to push the jobless into competing for low-paid, precarious employment opportunities.
Low-income Canadians twice as likely to be hospitalized due to self-harm than the wealthiest - Research published recently by the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) found that low-income Canadians are twice as likely to be hospitalized due to self-harm than their counterparts in wealthy neighbourhoods. The study also revealed that 25,000 people were either hospitalized or died due to self-harm last year, the equivalent of about 70 self-harm incidents per day. Around 3,800 of the total cases proved fatal. The suicide rate was highest among men aged 45 and over, which suggests growing levels of despair among a section of the population that has lived through a period of a drastic deterioration in the social position of the working class and skyrocketing levels of inequality. The CIHI figures show that residents in Canada’s lowest-income neighbourhoods were hospitalized at a rate of 104 per 100,000, compared to 49 per 100,000 in the country’s wealthiest areas. Demonstrating the lack of community mental health resources, the study also noted that around one in nine of those hospitalized have had two or more hospital stays due to self-harm within a year. “People are showing up in emergency departments and they’re showing up in hospitals. That’s kind of a place of last resort,” remarked Tracy Johnson, director of health systems analysis and emerging issues for CIHI. “That says to me that these people require more help than they’re getting.” As shocking as these figures are, they are certainly an underestimation of the true extent of the prevalence of self-harm and suicide attempts. The data does not include people who may have been helped by other primary health care providers — family doctors or emergency clinics, or those who went to emergency rooms but were not admitted into care. Moreover, it was gathered prior to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, with the ruling elite’s disastrous response producing a dramatic rise in mental health problems, drug overdoses, and other signs of social distress. Many of the 4 million people still out of work confront on a daily basis, the fear of long-term joblessness and financial crisis, and uncertainty about what the future will bring—all factors known to impact negatively on one’s mental wellbeing. The disproportionate impact of the mental health crisis on the poorest sections of the population revealed in the CIHI study is a reflection of the glaring levels of social inequality in Canada. This is a society where the richest 1 percent owns 25.6 percent of all wealth, which is equivalent to the wealth controlled by the poorest 80 percent. The poorest 40 percent of the population possesses a mere 1.2 percent of all wealth. (See: New report exposes staggering level of social inequality in Canada). It is also the product of decades of austerity spending on health care and other critical social services adopted by all of the major parties.
McKinsey Electric Vehicle Index: Europe cushions a global plunge in EV sales. -McKinsey’s proprietary Electric Vehicle Index (EVI) assesses the dynamics of the e-mobility market in 15 key countries worldwide (for more information on the metrics evaluated, see sidebar “What is the Electric Vehicle Index?”). EVI results for 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 provide important insights about market growth, regional demand patterns, market share for major electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturers, and supply-chain trends. EV sales rose 65 percent from 2017 to 2018. But in 2019, the number of units sold increased only to 2.3 million, from 2.1 million, for year-on-year growth of just 9 percent. Equally sobering, EV sales declined by 25 percent during the first quarter of 2020. The days of rapid expansion have ceased—or at least paused temporarily. Overall, Europe has seen the strongest growth in EVs. In the first quarter of 2020, European EV sales rose as the overall EV penetration rate increased to 7.5 percent. With the exception of Hong Kong, all of the top ten markets for EV penetration were in Europe (Exhibit 2). The strong regulatory tailwinds and high purchase incentives in several European countries could dampen the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and further boost the EV market. That said, EV sales will probably face tougher impediments in second-quarter 2020, when the pandemic’s impact on Europe’s countries and economies should peak. So far, no European OEM has changed its plans to roll out EV models, and several countries are discussing additional purchase incentives as part of their economic-stimulus programs.
UK will pay low-income residents to self-isolate because of COVID-19 - (Reuters) - Britain will pay low-income residents to self-isolate if they have confirmed or suspected coronavirus as the government steps up measures to keep the virus under control. The new policy comes after opposition politicians called on the government to introduce the payments amid concerns that some people who cannot not afford to take time off work were avoiding complying with the health advice. The government said individuals who test positive for the virus will receive 130 pounds for their 10-day period of self-isolation. Other members of their household, who have to self-isolate for 14 days, will be entitled to 182 pounds. The money will be available to people on welfare payments known as Universal Credit or Working Tax Credits, and who are unable to work from home. The scheme will be trialed first in Blackburn, Pendle and Oldham, which had experienced local lockdowns because of their higher rates of the virus. “The British public have already sacrificed a great deal to help slow the spread of the virus. Self-isolating if you have tested positive for COVID-19, or have come into contact with someone who has, remains vital to keeping on top of local outbreaks,” said Matt Hancock, the health minister. The United Kingdom has suffered more than 65,000 excess deaths from coronavirus, according to the government’s statistics office, with a surge that lasted longer and spread to more places than those in other hard-hit European nations like Italy and Spain.
A Levels: Government’s U-turn has Left Universities in the Lurch - The UK government has performed a U-turn on A level exam grades, awarding students in England the marks given by teacher assessment where they are higher than the moderated grades adjusted by what the government now admits was a flawed algorithm. While this is a source of relief for many students, it leaves many universities facing more uncertainty about student numbers and their financial future – with ramifications that may last for years.On the morning of Thursday August 13, many students – in many cases from disadvantaged backgrounds – woke up to find results that did not reflect their mock exam results or grades predicted by their teachers.The algorithm developed by Ofqual to prevent grade inflation as a result of teacher-awarded marks resulted in nearly 40% of marks being lowered. For some students, this meant that they had failed to meet the entry requirements for their preferred university course.As soon as the A level results were out, universities opened phone lines for the clearing process, as they do every year – offering remaining places on under-subscribed courses to students who missed out due to lower than expected grades. Thousands of disappointed students began to contact universities, hoping to salvage their dreams of higher education. Universities responded to students’ clearing applications by looking at individual profiles, awarded marks, predicted grades and personal statements to make a judgement about offers. Universities are keen to make offers to students that match their aspirations, as well as using their academic achievements as a guide for engagement and success with their studies. Then, on Monday August 17 – after a weekend of pressure – the education secretary, Gavin Williamson, announced that England would follow the example of Scotland and award gradesbased on teacher assessment. Northern Ireland and Wales also made the same move on August 17. But the university places that were decided in the five days before this reverse – when the government declared that there would be no U-turn in England – have now been thrown into doubt.
Only 1 in 5 staff in UK cities back in workplaces, think-tank says - (Reuters) - Only 17% of workers in British cities had returned to their workplaces by early August, underscoring the challenge for Prime Minister Boris Johnson to steer the country away from its coronavirus shutdown, data published on Thursday showed. The Centre for Cities said the data, based on mobile phone signals, showed no increase in the footfall of workers going to city centres between late June and the week starting Aug. 3. Johnson last month encouraged people working from home to get back to their workplaces to help the economy recover from its 20% contraction in the April-June period, the biggest fall among big developed economies. “The costs of office closure are becoming clearer by the day,” Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the Confederation of British Industry, an employers group, said. “Some of our busiest city centres resemble ghost towns, missing the usual bustle of passing trade. This comes at a high price for local businesses, jobs and communities,” she wrote in an article for the Daily Mail newspaper. Separate figures published by Britain’s statistics office showed almost one in four businesses in accommodation and food services and arts, and the entertainment and recreation industries rated their risk of insolvency as moderate or severe. The Office for National Statistics also said footfall in mid-August in high streets, retail parks and shopping centres had increased to around 70% of its level a year earlier. Vehicle traffic levels on Aug. 24 were just six percentage points lower than in early February, before the pandemic struck.
Child Trafficking Protesters Gathered Outside Buckingham Palace To Condemn Pedophile Prince - This Saturday in London, protesters gathered outside of Buckingham Palace as part of a demonstration against child exploitation. Protesters shouted accusations of “pedophile” outside the gates of the palace, in reference to Prince Andrew’s involvement in Jeffrey Epstein’s child trafficking ring.The protests were organized through a Facebook event page called, ‘Freedom For The Children Global Walk London.’ A post on the event page read: “The purpose of this walk for change is to bring awareness to the current reality of child exploitation within our own communities and around the world. Let’s show our devotion and determination toward protecting these children, our communities most vulnerable, by requesting change and reformation within our government and law enforcement agencies to ensure that justice is brought in such a manner that it will significantly reduce instances of child exploitation while promoting awareness in order to end this ongoing issue.” In footage later released of the protest, protesters can be seen waving banners with Prince Andrew’s face along with messages condemning his crimes.
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