The Fed Lays Out New Goals, but Its Tools Could Be Lacking – WSJ Now that the Federal Reserve has formally codified changes to its policy framework to seek periods of higher inflation, the question is how to achieve it. No one expects its policy-setting revamp to boost growth right away. Unemployment is above 10%. The coronavirus pandemic is devastating broad swaths of commerce.But once the crisis recedes, the central bank will rely on economic stimulus tools that may be less powerful today than they were when the Fed used them last decade. The past six months have shown that the Fed is far from powerless to avert financial panics by devising new emergency lending backstops. This is different from providing stimulus that can spur more lending and investment to support a recovery.“The Fed is never going to say the cupboard is bare because that’s alarming. But they’ve reached the area of very rapidly diminishing returns,” said William Dudley, who was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 2009 to 2018. Lewis Alexander, chief U.S. economist at Nomura Securities, said the public process to re-evaluate the Fed’s framework already notched an important victory by shaping how investors expected the Fed to react to a downturn before the pandemic-induced economic shock threw the economy into a recession in March.As a result of the yearlong review, the Fed had already essentially previewed its playbook, reinforcing expectations of rates that would stay lower for longer. As a result, the spread between the Fed’s overnight rate and longer-term interest rates stayed historically narrow when the Fed cut rates to zero in March.The flip side of its aggressive action this spring is that its tools may be able to achieve less now. “The Fed is operating at the margins. That needs to be recognized. If it’s not recognized, there is a risk people are overinvested in what the Fed can do,” Mr. Dudley said. Going forward, the Fed has indicated it will rely primarily on the two tools—asset purchases and guidance about its policy plans—it used after cutting rates to near zero following the 2007-09 recession. This could take the form of describing the inflation and employment conditions that would need to be satisfied before considering rate increases or a slowdown in asset purchases.Still, officials have warned these tools could pack less punch today because long-term interest rates are already low. It is a big reason why Fed officials, who are normally hesitant about wading into a partisan scrum, have issued more calls for elected officials and other parts of the government to provide economic support with changes to spending or tax policy.
Top Fed Official Says New Framework Provides More Humble Approach to Setting Rates – WSJ - A top Federal Reserve official said the central bank would resume discussions at its meeting in two weeks over how it could refine its guidance about plans to keep interest rates lower for longer.Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida offered little specifics about what changes might be considered or when they might be unveiled, saying he didn’t want to prejudge the outcome of coming discussions. The Fed’s next policy meeting is Sept. 15-16.Officials are turning their attention to what ways they can provide more support to the economy after cutting rates to near zero in response to the downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic in March. They are buying Treasury and mortgage securities at a rate of more than $1 trillion a year and have signaled no interest to raise rates for years.The coming discussions on how to tweak their asset purchase program or refine their so-called forward guidance about interest rates has been smoothed by the conclusion last week of a yearlong policy revamp in which the Fed will seek periods of slightly higher inflation after periods in which price pressures run below their 2% target.In remarks Monday, Mr. Clarida said the central bank needed to be more skeptical of models that predict higher inflation when setting interest-rate policy, given the weak response of inflation to lower levels of unemployment over the past decade.The Fed’s new framework states that the Fed won’t raise interest rates simply because unemployment has fallen to a low level estimated to spur faster price inflation, Mr. Clarida said.Concerns that too-low levels of unemployment would lead to a surge in inflation led the Fed to very slowly begin raising rates in 2015 after seven years in which rates were pinned near zero.Mr. Clarida signaled a note of humility in his remarks Monday. The change “reflects the reality that economic models of maximum employment, while essential inputs to monetary policy, can be and have been wrong,” he said. “A decision to tighten monetary policy based solely on a model without any other evidence of excessive cost-push pressure…is difficult to justify given the significant cost to the economy if the model turns out to be wrong.”
Fed Official Says Economy Faces High Uncertainty, Prominent Risks – WSJ -A top Federal Reserve official said the economy faces substantial risks, including the premature withdrawal of government spending to support growth, and will require continued stimulus from the central bank.The risk of permanent layoffs and business bankruptcies will rise the longer that uncertainty related to the coronavirus pandemic remains high, said Fed governor Lael Brainard in a speech set for delivery Tuesday.“With the recovery likely to face [virus]-related headwinds for some time, in coming months, it will be important for monetary policy to pivot from stabilization to accommodation,” Ms. Brainard said.Ms. Brainard singled out additional government spending and related fiscal policy as a key factor that would influence the pace of any recovery from the economic shock triggered by the pandemic.“As was true in the first phase of the crisis, fiscal support will remain essential to sustaining many families and businesses,” she said. Ms. Brainard said the adoption of a revamped policy-setting framework by the central bank last week will play an important role in the Fed’s ability to provide continued support. The changes are designed to shift expectations by signaling that interest rates will remain lower for longer than they would in prior business cycles.The Fed’s new framework codifies two important changes. First, it effectively raises the Fed’s inflation target by saying the central bank should take past misses of the 2% target into account and seek periods of moderately higher inflation to compensate. Second, officials won’t raise interest rates simply because unemployment rates fall below a level estimated to put pressure on prices. In doing so, they have set aside the consensus that guided central-bank policy following the runaway inflation of the 1970s. “The longstanding presumption that accommodation should be reduced pre-emptively when the unemployment rate nears the neutral rate in anticipation of high inflation that is unlikely to materialize risks an unwarranted loss of opportunity for many Americans,” said Ms. Brainard. Ms. Brainard said it was possible that the shift in how the Fed reacts to incoming data about the economy could exacerbate risks of cyclical volatility in asset prices such as stocks and real estate, leading to higher highs during good times and lower lows in bad times. As a result, Ms. Brainard said it would be important for regulatory policy to play a more muscular role so that the Fed wouldn’t have to use interest-rate policy to achieve potentially conflicting mandates of keeping inflation stable with unemployment low, while also reducing financial risk-taking.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red), as of August 30th. The seven day average is down 70% from last year. There had been a slow steady increase from the bottom, but air travel has mostly moved sideways recently. The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. The 7 day average for New York is still off 64% YoY, and down 34% in Florida. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 27th. Movie ticket sales have picked up over the last few weeks, and were over $7 million last week (compared to usually around $300 million per week). This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. COVID-19 crushed hotel occupancy, however the occupancy rate has increased in 17 of the last 19 weeks, and is currently down 30.3% year-over-year. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline consumption compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline consumption was off almost 50% YoY. As of August 21st, gasoline consumption was only off about 8% YoY (about 92% of normal). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions. This data is through August 29th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is still only about 56% of the January level. It is at 48% in Los Angeles, and 53% in Houston. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This data is through Friday, August 28th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
Fed’s Powell Says Economy Likely Will Need More Government Spending, Low Interest Rates – WSJ - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday’s report showing 1.4 million Americans found or resumed work in August was good news, but the economy likely will require more government spending and low interest rates for years.In an interview with National Public Radio conducted Friday afternoon, Mr. Powell said he was concerned employment in hardest-hit sectors of the economy—including travel, leisure and hospitality—might not return to a normal level of activity anytime soon due to the coronavirus pandemic. “We do think it will get harder from here,” said Mr. Powell. Employment in service sectors, especially those that tend to support entry-level and lower-paid workers, “may be some of the harder jobs to find because there are some parts of the economy that will take longer to recover,” he said. Job gains in August helped push down the unemployment rate to 8.4% from 10.2% in July, the Labor Department report said Friday. The U.S. economy lost nearly 22 million jobs between February and April, but has recovered around half of those since May. Through August, around 11.5 million fewer people had jobs than in February. “I think we’re not really going to know the pace … of the recovery with any clarity for a couple more months,” he said, according to a transcript released by NRP. Mr. Powell said the Fed was committed to providing support for as long as the economy needs it. The Fed cut short-term rates to near zero in March and is buying government securities at a pace of more than $1 trillion per year. The Fed leader for months has said he expects Congress and the White House will need to spend more money and provide other relief, such as moratoria on rental evictions, to prevent longer-term damage from holding back the economy, particularly because the current shock has hurt the most vulnerable Americans. “We ought to do everything we can as a country to…look out for them,” he said. While it could have significant economic benefits, “it’s also just the right thing to do,” said Mr. Powell. Mr. Powell, who has for years warned of the risks of elevated levels of federal borrowing, said now isn’t the time to worry about the public debt. Steps to limit the severity of the current downturn could spur a faster rebound in hiring, spending and federal revenues. “It’ll cost money now, but it will pay dividends later,” he said. On more fiscal relief, he added, “My guess is that, in time, more will be done. And certainly I think more will be needed.” Congressional Democrats have been at a stalemate for months with Republicans and the White House over the size of another spending package. Democrats are pushing for significant relief to state and local governments and a package of at least $2.2 trillion, the size of a bipartisan measure approved in March.
Budget deficit to hit record $3.3T due to virus, recession (AP) — The federal budget deficit is projected to hit a record $3.3 trillion as huge government expenditures to fight the coronavirus and to prop up the economy have added more than $2 trillion to the federal ledger, the Congressional Budget Office said. The spike in the deficit means that federal debt will exceed annual gross domestic product next year — a milestone that would put the U.S. where it was in the aftermath of World War II, when accumulated debt exceeded the size of the economy. The $3.3 trillion figure released Wednesday is more than triple the 2019 shortfall and more than double the levels experienced after the market meltdown and Great Recession of 2008-09. Government spending, fueled by four coronavirus response measures, would register at $6.6 trillion, $2 trillion-plus more than 2019. The recession has caused a drop in tax revenues have fallen, but the changes are not as dramatic as seen on the spending side, with individual income tax collections running 11% behind last year. Corporate tax collections are down 34%. The economy shut down in the spring so people could be in isolation, in a failed national attempt to defeat the pandemic. That shutdown led lawmakers and President Donald Trump to pump money into business subsidies, larger unemployment benefits, $1,200 direct payments and other stimulus steps that have helped the economy in the short term. Most economists are untroubled by such huge borrowing when the economy is in peril, and the debt was barely a concern when a cornerstone $2 trillion coronavirus relief bill passed almost unanimously in March. But now that lawmakers and the White House are quarreling over the size and scope of a fifth virus relief bill, Republicans are growing skittish at the enormous costs of battling the pandemic. The Democratic-controlled House passed a $3.5 trillion measure in May, though House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., says she is willing to cut that figure to $2.2 trillion. Caseloads remain unacceptably elevated, however, as the virus exacts a painful, lingering toll on the economy and sentiment remains high for a fifth virus rescue package that would include money to reopen schools, patch state budgets and continue enhanced jobless benefits that have kept families afloat.
An Increasing Anomaly In The US Balance Of Payments - On Econbrowser Menzie Chinn has posted about an increase in the scale of US international net indebtedenss. Since the late 1980s the US has been a net debtor internationally, borrowing more from abroad then we are lending and investing there. The increase in this net indebtedness has noticeably accelerated since our current POTUS took office, and especially this year. The size of that net indebtedness has gone from about 40% of US GDP to somewhat more than 55%, a pretty substantial increase, given that we have been in this condition for over three decades and in three years by more than a third. The fiscal stimulus of this year has definitely been overwhelmingly financed by foreign borrowing.This increase in net indebtedness highlights a longstanding anomaly that now looks even more anomalous. Even though the US has been a net debtor for over three decades, it has remained a positive net earner on capital income arising from all those international capital movements in and out of the US. This is mostly measured by the primary income part of the international capital account, which last year was in surplus at a bit over $60 billion. What is more curious is that this does not seem to have changed much at all over the last five years, some slight changes here and there, but mostly unchanged. I confess to being mystified as to how an increase in net indebtedness by more than a third has led to essentially no change in the capital income payments situation. A few years ago it was clear that what was going on is that most of the US assets abroad are in business investments earning large profits and thus high rates of return on the investments, while foreigners are holding assets in the US earning much lower rates of return, most notably US government securities, the outcome of all that foreign borrowing by the US government over a long period of time. The foreigners have been sending their money here as the “safe haven,” an argument or motive that may be breaking down according to some. So they have been willing to accept the low returns for the supposed safety, while US investors have been taking bigger risks but getting bigger returns as a result.. - Barkley Rosser
U.S. Debt Is Set to Exceed Size of the Economy Next Year, a First Since World War II – WSJ —U.S. debt has reached its highest level compared to the size of the economy since World War II and is projected to exceed it next year, the result of a giant fiscal responseto the coronavirus pandemic. The Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday that federal debt held by the public is projected to reach or exceed 100% of U.S. gross domestic product, the broadest measure of U.S. economic output, in the fiscal year that begins on Oct. 1. That would put the U.S. in the company of a handful of nations with debt loads that exceed their economies, including Japan, Italy and Greece. This year the ratio is expected to be 98%, also the highest since World War II. The surge in borrowing so far isn’t creating angst among investors or hampering the U.S.’s ability to borrow more. Investors have gobbled up U.S. Treasury assets, drawn to their relative safety. Moreover, interest rates are expected to remain low, suggesting the government still has plenty of room to borrow. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell Wednesday to 0.643%, from 0.672%, in line with a broader rally in financial markets. Bond yields fall as prices rise. The U.S. passed the 100% debt-to-GDP mark, measured on a quarterly basis, in the April to June quarter, when government spending surged to combat the new coronavirus and tax revenue plunged. But this would be the first time in more than 70 years for it to do so for the federal government’s full fiscal year. The last time the U.S. debt level exceeded economic output was in 1946, when it stood at 106% after years of financing military operations to help end World War II.Policy makers have compared the fight against the coronavirus to a military war effort, and approved roughly $2.7 trillion in spending since March for testing and vaccine research, aid for hospitals and economic relief for businesses, households and state and local governments. Federal revenue fell 10% from April through July, compared with a year earlier, as fears of the virus and widespread business shutdowns brought economic activity to a standstill, and firms laid off millions of workers. The combination of those factors sent the federal deficit soaring and caused government debt as a share of economic output to jump. By the end of June, total debt had swelled to $20.5 trillion from $17.7 trillion at the end of March, a 16% increase over just three months, according to Treasury Department data. Meanwhile, the economy shrank 9.5% in the second quarter, bringing debt as a share of GDP to 105.5%, compared with 82% in the first quarter.
As Trump shakes up the military footprint in Europe, the US and Russia are making moves in the high north - US military activity around Norway this month reflects the continuing strategic value of NATO's northernmost member, even as the Trump administration changes the US footprint there and across Europe. The US and Norwegian militaries have longstanding ties, but military activity in the area has increased as the region grows more accessible and tensions with Russia remain high. Mid-August saw a flurry of such activity by the US.On August 17, guided-missile destroyer USS Roosevelt stopped in Tromsø in northern Norway after a 50-day patrol in the high north, where the Roosevelt and other US ships "have received steadfast support from Norway," the Navy said.On August 21, the West Coast-based attack submarine USS Seawolf made a brief stop near Tromsø after traveling across the planet to operate around Europe.The Navy rarely announces the whereabouts of its subs — especially one of the sophisticated Seawolf class, designed to take on the Soviets — indicating this was likely meant as a message."The arrival of Seawolf compliments our already robust undersea warfare capabilities and demonstrates our continued commitment to providing maritime security and deterrence throughout the region," Rear Adm. Anthony Carullo, commander of the Naples-based Submarine Group 8, said in a release.The action wasn't limited to the sea. Norwegian fighter jets trained with US Air Force B-52 bombers before the bombers' August 22 arrival in the UK for a bomber task force rotation.Flight trackers appeared to show the bombers flying north from North Dakota, traveling over Greenland and through the Arctic before approaching the UK over the Norwegian Sea. The Air Force spokesperson declined to comment on the bombers' route, citing operational security. As Russian military capabilities in the Arctic eroded after the Cold War, NATO's focus on the region "rapidly faded," said Heather Conley, senior vice president for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Interest in the Arctic has grown recently as it becomes more accessible. Russia has refocused on the region as an economic and military imperative "for well over the past decade," Conley said. "The US and NATO have only recently arrived at the rediscovery phase about two years ago." Russia, which has the world's longest Arctic coastline, has been refurbishing military facilities there and conducting more exercises.
Trump called American war dead in French cemetery 'losers:' report - Before a planned visit to honor the American dead at a French cemetery just outside Paris in 2018, President Trump called the U.S. service members who were buried there during World War I “losers," sources told The Atlantic. At the time, Trump was expected to arrive at Aisne-Marne American Cemetery, but he canceled last minute, stating that due to the rain, the helicopter could not fly to the location noting that the Secret Service could not drive him. However, according to four sources with knowledge of the incident, Trump was reluctant to travel to the cemetery because he was concerned that the rain would dishevel his hair, the Atlantic reported. He also did not think it was important to honor the dead there, according to the sources. “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers,” Trump reportedly told aides before canceling the trip to Belleau, France. In another conversation Trump reportedly said that the 1,800 marines who lost their lives in the battle of Belleau Wood were “suckers” for getting killed. The president reportedly asked aides about historic details about WWI, including “Who were the good guys in this war?”
Retired general blasts Trump on reported military comments: 'You're no patriot' - A retired Army general on Thursday night went viral for his scathing response to a report that President Trump made disparaging remarks about dead U.S. service members, telling Trump he’s “no patriot.” Retired U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton posted a video responding to a new report in The Atlantic which detailed Trump allegedly calling the U.S. service members who were buried in a French cemetery during World War I “losers.” The magazine also reported that Trump referred to U.S. Marines who were killed at Belleau Wood during World War I as “suckers” because they died. “I’m pretty unhappy with you, Mr. Trump. So I’m going to keep this short for your famous short attention span,” Eaton said in the clip. “You have shown disrespect to the military on countless occasions. I am stunned that anybody in the United States military would consider you anything but a ‘loser’ or a ‘sucker.’ You’re no patriot." Eaton pulled out the dog tags found at the crash site from where his father, a fighter pilot, was killed during the Vietnam War in 1969. “Our Army, our Navy, our Marine Corps, our Air Force, our Coast Guard. Brave men and women. They’re not just brave. They’re smart and wise,” Eaton said in the video. “So, Mr. Trump, come Nov. 3, we’re all voting for a real patriot — Joe Biden. And everybody who hears this, please take notice and please vote. Vote Democratic. Our country’s honor depends on it.” The 2-minute clip went viral, garnering more than 2 million views as of Friday morning.
Trump attacks Fox News reporter after she backs up key details of Atlantic story - President Trump went after Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin after she backed up some details of a bombshell story from The Atlantic that said he had referred to slain American soldiers buried at a French cemetery as “losers” and “suckers.” Trump shared an article late Friday from far-right outlet Breitbart News declaring that Griffin "Did Not Confirm 'Most Salacious' Part of Atlantic Story" after the reporter shared on the air that sources had confirmed to her certain key details of the magazine's story. "All refuted by many witnesses. Jennifer Griffin should be fired for this kind of reporting. Never even called us for comment. @FoxNews is gone!" Trump declared in a tweet. The rebuke came hours after Griffin, a national security correspondent for Fox News, reported that sources had confirmed key details of The Atlantic's report. Griffin said sources told her that Trump had said the Vietnam War was “stupid” and anyone who fought in it was a “sucker.” Trump famously received a number of draft deferrals for the Vietnam War from a doctor who said he suffered from bone spurs. Griffin, citing a former Trump administration official, reported that Trump "was not in a good mood" during his trip to France in 2018 and "questioned why he had to go to two cemeteries." She also reported that Trump was adamant flags not be lowered to half-staff when the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a fierce critic of Trump, died in 2018.
Trump Payroll-Tax Deferral Leaves Employers Wary as Plan Starts - WSJ—President Trump’s payroll-tax deferral plan started Tuesday, but many employers seem unlikely to adopt the policy, which would effectively give their workers a short-term interest-free loan.Employers participating in the president’s plan would stop withholding some Social Security taxes for the rest of 2020, then withhold twice as much as usual early next year to pay the delayed taxes. That would put more money in workers’ pockets temporarily and give them a chance at keeping that money permanently if Congress later forgives the taxes.But under IRS guidance released late Friday, employers would be on the hook for money that doesn’t get repaid. And they would face implementation costs and challenges in explaining any changes to workers.“The initial concerns that we had about the deferral have just been identified as right,” said Michael Chittenden, a tax and benefits lawyer at Covington & Burling LLP in Washington who expects few large employers to participate. “The latest guidance does nothing to allay the concerns that employers had before. If anything, it makes those concerns more valid.”As of Tuesday, employers can stop withholding the 6.2% employee share of Social Security taxes for workers earning under $104,000 on an annualized basis. Under IRS guidance issued late Friday, those taxes must be recouped from paychecks in the first four months of 2021.“It put all the burden and all the responsibility on employers,” said Pete Isberg, vice president for government relations at Automatic Data Processing Inc., which runs payroll for 670,000 U.S. employers. ADP is making computer changes so employers can start implementing the tax deferral this month and offer employees a choice of whether to participate. Employers can try to make other arrangements for workers who depart before April 30, 2021, before all their deferred taxes are repaid. One likely scenario, Mr. Isberg said, would be for any deferred taxes to come out of a departing worker’s final paycheck, but that could consume up to half of a worker’s take-home pay in some cases.
IRS guidelines put employers on the hook for Trump’s payroll tax break - The IRS issued long-awaited guidance on President Donald Trump’s payroll tax deferral Friday night. And it appears to put the onus on employers to collect any taxes due after the holiday ends. The president signed an executive order on Aug. 8 calling for a deferral of the employees’ portion of the payroll tax from Sept. 1 through the end of the year. [A deferral is a postponement, meaning it will still have to paid in the future.] Currently, employers and employees share responsibility for a 12.4% levy that funds Social Security and a 2.9% tax to support Medicare. The three-page notice the IRS issued on Friday postpones the due date for these taxes until April 30, 2021. After that date, penalties, interest and “additions to tax” will begin to accrue. Employers – dubbed the “affected taxpayers” in the guidance – “may make arrangements to otherwise collect the total applicable taxes from the employee,” the IRS said in its guidance on Friday. Since there is no guarantee that the employee’s share of deferred taxes will be forgiven, employers may not want that responsibility, tax professionals said. “To me, this says you’re telling the employer not to withhold the money, put themselves on the hook and then make ‘some arrangement’ to get the money back – or trust us that we’ll go and forgive it for you,” said Adam Markowitz, enrolled agent at Howard L Markowitz PA CPA in Leesburg, Florida. The new guidance from the IRS raises further questions on how the taxman will ultimately get its share of deferred payroll taxes – and the steps employers will have to take to “make arrangements” with workers to collect the money. “What if the employer hangs onto the taxes in a bank account and the employee leaves? What do we do with the money?” asked Dan Herron, CPA and principal of Elemental Wealth Advisors in San Luis Obispo, California. “Do we give the money to the employee and tell them to figure out how to report it on their Form 1040?” he asked. “It’s a compliance nightmare.”
Yes, Trump’s Proposed Permanent Tax Cut Would Gut Social Security By 2023 -- At a time of extremes in society, absolute alarmist statements might seem like quenching flames with jet fuel. But, in the case of Donald Trump’s proposed permanent cuts to payroll taxes, absolute and alarmist are baseline fact.If Trump got his way with a permanent payroll tax cut and there was no replacement source of revenue, Social Security would be out of money by the middle of 2023. That’s not some click-bait concept. It’s the projection of the Office of the Chief Actuary at the Social Security Administration.In answer to an August 19, 2020 letter from four Democratic senators, Chief Actuary Stephen Goss laid out a scenario that made two major assumptions: Congress would authorize a permanent end to the dedicated payroll taxes that fund Social Security and no other provision would be made to replace the income stream, such as transfers of funds from the Treasury.As a reminder, Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) payroll taxes go into the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund and Self-Employment Contributions Act (SECA) payroll taxes are for the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund. Money from the trust funds respectively pay for retirement and disability benefits.Operations and benefits require a constant replenishing of funds. In calendar year 2019, Social Security took in $1,061.8 billion and spent (mostly in benefits payments) $1,059.3 billion, leaving a positive balance of $2.5 billion for the period.A billion is a huge amount of money, unless you’re talking about retirement benefits for a country of about 330 million people. The money everyone pays is not put aside in personal retirement accounts. It’s the cash that makes the benefits to retired people possible, just as workers today will eventually depend on others in the future to pay for their retirement benefits, absent some massive restructuring of the system. This is why constant replenishment is necessary. Cut payroll taxes starting January 1, 2021, and “DI Trust Fund asset reserves would become permanently depleted in about the middle of calendar year 2021, with no ability to pay DI [disability] benefits thereafter,” Goss wrote. The ability to pay OASI benefits—regular retirement benefits—would end by the middle of 2023. Could the scenario happen? Certainly, if Trump were reelected and Republicans both kept control of the Senate and regained it in the House. Coordinated agreement among all three could even in theory cancel payroll taxes retroactively back to January 1, 2021 once newly elected officials take office.
There Will Be No Postponing Social Security Taxes - Barkley Rosser - Among the items that President Trump issued an “executive action” about three weeks ago was that for people earning less than around $104.000 per year, their fica taxes were to be postponed until Jan. 1, not cut, merely postponed, although Trump made noises that if he is reelected he will simply eliminate the fica tax entirely, although unclear how he plans to fund Social Security without it. Anyway, Allan Sloan in the Washington Post reports that this initiative is now just completely dead in the water. It has too many problems, too many opponents, and action on implementing it in the Treasury Department has simply stalled out, almost certainly for good due to all this. Quite aside from people facing potentially huge fica tax bills in January due to four months of postponement, it apparently is very complicated to set this up, and would take many months to do so, involving businesses and the Treasury Dept. having to put in place all kinds of mechanisms to figure out exactly which people would get their taxes postponed and which would not. A real killer is that businesses pretty much across the board have objected to this proposal, with this now official as 30 different such groups have called for the cessation of this effort through the US Chamber of Commerce. This is just going nowhere. This should be contrasted with the temporary fica tax cut that Obama had in place during 2011-2012. There are two large differences between that and what Trump has so incompetently proposed. One is that Obama had it pass through Congress, not be the result of a presidential directive or memo. The other is that it was completely simple: all Social Security taxes stopped being collected for the period in question, not a system based on treating people differently based on their incomes and also not a postponement. It was a straight cut, if only a temporary one.
Bad blood between Pelosi, Meadows complicates coronavirus talks- Bad blood between Pelosi, Meadows complicates coronavirus talks Volume 90% As the parties scramble for an elusive deal on another round of coronavirus relief, mistrust and bad blood between two of the principal negotiators — Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows — have snarled the talks and complicated the path to a timely agreement. The tensions were on full display Thursday after a 25-minute phone call between the two power brokers — the first talks between the sides in roughly three weeks — failed to break the long impasse. Meadows, Pelosi charged afterward, displayed a “disregard” for the needs of suffering Americans by rejecting more emergency funding. Pelosi, Meadows countered, offered “25 minutes of nothing.” The sharp back-and-forth was partly theatrics, as the parties seek to energize their base voters less than 10 weeks from the high-stakes Nov. 3 elections. But it also highlighted the stark ideological differences between the sides when it comes to the government’s role in responding to the public health and economic crises sparked by the coronavirus pandemic — differences all but epitomized in the figures of Pelosi and Meadows. Meadows, a former North Carolina congressman and House Freedom Caucus chairman, is well known for his clashes with leaders of his own party, triggering government shutdowns and even forcing a GOP Speaker, John Boehner (Ohio), into an early retirement. He also proved to be a sharp thorn in the side of the two Republicans who followed Boehner — then-Speaker Paul Ryan (Wis.) and current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) — while going largely ignored in Democratic circles. “Very few Dems dealt with him,” a former Democratic leadership aide said Friday in an email. “They just saw him as a bomb thrower with no responsibility.” That changed dramatically this year when Meadows ascended to chief of staff and assumed a leading part in the negotiations over a fifth round of emergency coronavirus aid. Even in the new role, Meadows's hard-line approach to government spending has left lawmakers of both parties questioning his ability — and his interest — in cutting a multitrillion-dollar deal. “He spent all his time in the House fighting these types of deals and never liking CR's [continuing resolutions]. Back then it was okay cause he didn't have to lead or be responsible. “I think he is struggling with his new role.” With the sides still almost $1 trillion apart, the rhetoric accompanying the debate is heating up. Indeed, as the partisan impasse has stretched beyond a month, Pelosi’s disdain for her former House colleague is spilling out, as she increasingly bashes “whatever-his-name-is” and “what’s-the-name” with accusations that he’s threatening both the public health and economic well-being of working class Americans.
PPP loans worth billions at risk for fraud, oversight panel says - More than $1 billion in federal coronavirus relief went to U.S. small businesses that received multiple loans, although that wasn’t allowed by the stimulus program, according to an analysis by congressional subcommittee Democratic staff, which also raised red flags for potential fraud with thousands of other companies. The oversight panel staff also found that firms got relief even though they were barred from doing business with the federal government, as did borrowers that provided incomplete information, according to a memo to members of House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis. The analysis examined data for more than 5.2 million loans totaling $525 billion in the Paycheck Protection Program run by the U.S. Small Business Administration and the Treasury Department. While the aid helped millions of small firms that were hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, many others were left out, especially the tiniest businesses and minority-owned ones. And data released publicly in July was riddled with errors, including inaccurate numbers of jobs retained, incorrect loan amounts, loans located in the wrong congressional district and duplicate loans. “Congress appropriated hundreds of billions of dollars to support small businesses struggling to survive the economic crisis,” Democrats on the subcommittee said in a report released Tuesday ahead of a hearing with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. “The subcommittee staff’s analysis suggests a high risk that PPP loans may have been diverted from small businesses truly in need to ineligible businesses or even to criminals.” While the SBA and Treasury have promised to audit all PPP loans of more than $2 million, the subcommittee Democrats said that accounts for less than 1% of all loans approved and that more oversight and fraud-detection protocols need to be implemented as loans are reviewed to be forgiven. The program, which was the centerpiece of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package enacted in March, was an unprecedented bipartisan effort to give a lifeline to small firms, which employed about half of the private workforce in the country before the pandemic. But today lawmakers are falling back on party lines in their assessment of whether the program achieved its goal — while proposals for more aid, including allowing companies to get a second PPP loan, are in limbo with a larger stimulus package for the economy stalled in Congress. Republican staff members on the select subcommittee issued their own report on Tuesday. Despite initial confusion and problems because of how quickly the program was implemented, it was “a resounding success” in protecting million of jobs across the country during the pandemic, they said. “Democrats should end their partisan investigation of this successful program and instead work with Republicans to extend it so more small businesses can keep their workers employed and paid,” Representative Steve Scalise, the top Republican on the subcommittee, said in a statement. The SBA has said it relied on information on applications from borrowers submitted by lenders and that approval of loans for banks to disburse doesn’t reflect a determination by the agency that the borrower is eligible for a PPP loan or entitled to have a loan forgiven.
House Dems Ambush Mnuchin With Report Alleging Billions In Possible 'PPP' Fraud - Just as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was sitting down for legally mandatory testimony before the Democrat-controlled House subcommittee investigating the federal response to the coronavirus pandemic, the committee tried to sandbag him by releasing a report alleging billions of dollars of "waste, fraud and abuse" in the $659 billion taxpayer-funded Paycheck Protection Program - or PPP.According to the report, more than $1 billion of the money - a drop in the bucket, or a fraction of a percentage point - allegedly went to applicants that triggered red flags. These included receiving multiple loans - in violation of the program’s rules - or receiving loans despite having been disciplined for a given transgression. $3 billion went to businesses that had been flagged as potentially problematic by the government.At the same time, the program only doled out the full requested amount for 12% of black and hispanic-owned businesses.For some of these "suspicious" cases, there might be perfectly reasonable explanations: perhaps a change of address, or a clerical mixup - it could be any number of things. But the Democrat-controlled panel found more than 600 examples where loans went to companies that had been barred from doing business with the federal government. Another 350 loans went to companies with past 'performance problems'.The subcommittee's researchers found evidence that as few as 12% of Black and Hispanic business owners received the full funding they requested. The analysis examined data for more than 5.2 million 'PPP' loans worth some $525 billion that were doled out by banks in cooperation with theSmall Business Administration and the Treasury.Outside their own research, the subcommittee noted that the SBA’s internal watchdog had also found "strong indicators" of potential PPP fraud.Then again, even these flaws aren't especially damning. As one reporter points out, the Dems latest attempt at crying "waste, fraud and abuse" rings hollow once again.Two new subcommittee reports (D and R) on PPP today. Neither really backs up its claims. Dems decry "waste, fraud & abuse) but the largest concrete example is $1b to cos w/ multiple loans (out of $500b in loans)
Finally Something Most Agree On- 70% Of Americans Demand More Stimulus - As Congress and the Trump administration remain deadlocked in talks over the next coronavirus stimulus package, seven in 10 Americans (70%) say they would support the government sending an additional economic impact payment (EIP) to all qualified adults. These stimulus payments, which were first distributed in April as part of the popular CARES Act, are widely supported as the U.S. economy continues to face high unemployment amid the coronavirus pandemic.Despite deep polarization on a number of policies related to COVID-19, an additional EIP receives strong support among both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats (82%) are most likely to favor the federal government sending another direct payment to all qualified U.S. adults (based on their income level), with about two-thirds of Republicans (64%) and independents (66%) saying the same. These results from the Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economics of Recovery Study, conducted Aug. 3-11, highlight bipartisan support for an additional wave of stimulus payments.Majorities across racial groups support another one-time stimulus payment -- and while the same is true among age groups, there is some variation by age. Younger adults are the least likely to support an additional EIP, even though nearly two-thirds of this group are in favor of the policy. Given the discussion of different EIP amounts among lawmakers, this study also explored views on the maximum size of new stimulus payments. Respondents who thought the federal government should send another one-time EIP were asked what the maximum level of the next stimulus payment should be. They were then given hypothetical ranges, from less than $300 to $900 or more. The majority of these respondents said that the maximum payout should be set at $900 or above.
Senate Republicans Push Narrow $500BN Stimulus Bill For Next Week As Overall Talks Stumble - Senate Republicans are assembling a $500 billion 'narrow' COVID-19 relief package which will be ready as early as next week, as negotiations on a larger overall package remain at an impasse. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told CNBC on Tuesday that the biggest stumbling block between Congressional lawmakers is the amount of money allocated for state and local governments - with Democrats insisting on $915 billion out of their overall $2.2 trillion proposal (down from more than $3 trillion), while the GOP is standing firm at $150 billion in new funds on top of $150 billion previously allocated for state and local needs. "Probably the biggest stumbling block that remains is the amount of money that would go to state and local help," said Meadows. "The speaker is still at $915 billion dollars, which is just not a number that's based on reality, and certainly not a number that represents the lost revenues for state and local governments." "We actually have talked about giving great flexibility for the $150 billion that was allocated in the previous CARES Act, in addition to another $150 billion that would go there which would overall give $300 billion in terms of flexibility and additional funds to state and local - which should represent the actual loss that we see," Meadows continued. "If you take the GDP reduction that we've experienced over the last quarter, and based on projections now - that should indicate about a $275 billion loss in revenues." Meadows added that he expects Senate Republicans to put forth a bill sometime next week that should pass the 60-vote threshold required to pass, which would be "more targeted" than the House Democrats' proposal, and would include around $500 billion in additional financial aid according to Reuters (though not heard in the clip below). Watch:
Mnuchin, Pelosi reach informal deal to avoid government shutdown - Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) have informally agreed to pursue a clean, short-term stopgap measure to avert a government shutdown at the end of the month, sources in both parties confirmed Thursday. That means the continuing resolution (CR) needed to keep the government open past Sept. 30 would be free of controversial policy riders that have bogged down previous funding bills, significantly lowering the odds of a shutdown leading up to the crucial Nov. 3 elections. The tentative deal also means the government funding bill and a new coronavirus relief package being negotiated between Pelosi and Mnuchin would not be part of the same talks. Both Mnuchin and Pelosi, who spoke Tuesday, agreed to “work to avoid a shutdown and keep the government open, and that the best way to do that is a clean CR,” said a source familiar with the talks. “House Democrats support a clean continuing resolution,” added Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill. White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany told reporters Thursday: "We do believe that we'll be able to get funding to avoid a shutdown." The duration of the CR is not clear at this point, but the most likely option is that the government will be funded until December, when Congress would need to return for a lame-duck session to pass another short-term bill to fund the government into 2021. The sources familiar with the talks said it’s possible any coronavirus relief deal reached this month could still hitch a ride on the CR but emphasized the items would run on separate tracks.
Pence says White House, Congress have reached agreement to avoid shutdown without adding coronavirus relief --The Trump administration and Congress have agreed to pass a bill to avoid a government shutdown without tying funding to separate measures such as coronavirus relief, Vice President Mike Pence said Friday. Approving a continuing resolution, which would temporarily set federal spending at current levels, would not inject the heated politics of pandemic aid into efforts to keep the government running. "Now, we can focus just on another relief bill, and we're continuing to do that in good faith," he told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." Government funding will lapse if Congress does not pass legislation before the end of the month. Speculation had grown that congressional leaders could try to include coronavirus relief measures in a spending package as a way to gain leverage in stimulus negotiations that have barely moved forward since they fell apart last month. Pence's comments Friday indicated the stalemate over how much money to put into boosting the economy could linger. Democrats have pushed the Trump administration to increase the price tag on their stimulus offer to at least $2.2 trillion from about $1.3 trillion. The White House has not yet budged. Pence criticized Democrats over perhaps the largest remaining sticking point in talks. Democratic leaders want more than $900 billion in new aid to cash-crunched state and local governments, while the Trump administration has offered $150 billion. "We're not going to allow Democrats in Congress to use a coronavirus relief bill to bail out poorly run Democratic states," the vice president said. The bipartisan National Governors Association has asked for at least $500 billion more in state and municipal aid. Governments have warned of possible cuts to essential services as they take on more costs and lose revenue during the pandemic. Pence repeatedly made the case for another round of stimulus checks as part of the fifth coronavirus rescue package. He said "nobody wants to give direct payments to American families more than Donald Trump again." The vice president spoke to CNBC after the Labor Department reported U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 1.37 million and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.4%. Pence called the data "real evidence that the American comeback is underway." The jobless rate remains significantly higher than it was before the Covid-19 outbreak hit the U.S. earlier this year. Permanent job losses in August also increased by 534,000 to 3.4 million. "8.4% unemployment is nothing to brag about," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., wrote in response to President Donald Trump's Friday morning tweet celebrating the jobs report. Despite four straight months of strong employment growth, the expiration of enhanced unemployment insurance and a federal moratorium on evictions has led to concerns of sharper suffering for many Americans. Even so, after Friday's jobs report, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg that "we can live with" not striking a coronavirus relief deal, according to Reuters.
Advisers See No Data Favoring Trump-Touted Plasma Therapy - A panel of experts convened by the National Institutes of Health undercut an emergency authorization issued just days ago by U.S. regulators, saying there’s not enough evidence to recommend use of convalescent plasma for hospitalized coronavirus patients.In an escalation of a dispute between federal agencies, the NIH advisers said an analysis of a study showed “no difference in 7-day survival overall” among those who received plasma containing high amounts of antibodies.The statement contradicts inflated claims made at an unusual Sunday night press conference at the White House a week ago, where Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn and President Donald Trump said convalescent plasma could cut deaths from coronavirus by 35%.Hahn subsequently apologized for mischaracterizing the benefits of the therapy, which takes infection-fighting antibodies from the blood of patients who have survived the infection and infuses it into those who are suffering with coronavirus.“There are currently no data from well-controlled, adequately powered randomized clinical trials that demonstrate the efficacy and safety of convalescent plasma for the treatment of COVID-19,” the NIH group said in a statement. “There are insufficient data to recommend either for or against the use of convalescent plasma for the treatment of covid-19.”The FDA granted emergency authorization on convalescent plasma on Aug. 23, one day before the Republican National Convention where Trump referred to the therapy as having the potential to “save thousands of lives.” The NIH advisers’ report is only going to ratchet up the pressure on the FDA as it considers whether to approve other treatments and, eventually, vaccines.
NIH Attacks FDA Over 'Premature' Approval Of 'Trump-Backed' Convalescent Plasma - Whatever is left of the FDA's credibility after director Dr. Stephen Hahn claimed that the agency would happily approve a COVID-19 vaccine before Phase 3 trials are finished if it felt "appropriate", a panel of experts at the National Institutes of Health, another agency in America's immense public health bureaucracy, have directly repudiated one of the FDA's most "controversial" findings. In an analysis of an FDA decision calling for emergency authorization of convalescent plasma as a means of treating COVID-19, the panel of experts convened by the NIH ruled that there wasn't enough evidence to back up the FDA's claims. Of course, Dr. Hahn has already apologized for his decision to fast-track approvals for convalescent plasma, saying it was wrong to cave to political pressures, and that the FDA must remain outside of political influence. Dr. Hahn granted his emergency approval of the medication on Aug. 23, the Sunday before the start of the Republican National Convention. Then again, the experts didn't rule against plasma as a potential treatment, they simply argued that what little data has been collected so far is hardly conclusive. "There are currently no data from well-controlled, adequately powered randomized clinical trials that demonstrate the efficacy and safety of convalescent plasma for the treatment of COVID-19,” the NIH group said in a statement. "There are insufficient data to recommend either for or against the use of convalescent plasma for the treatment of COVID-19." As more states mull the possibility of insisting on mandatory COVID-19 vaccinations for students and workers - Joe Biden is already vehemently in favor of mandatory mask laws, and attacked vaccine skeptics as "anti-science" - this is just the latest chilling reminder that "science" doesn't always speak with one voice, and that when it comes to experimental treatments, there are many factors that must be weighed.
U.S. Refuses to Join Global Coronavirus Vaccine Efforts - The U.S. has decided to stick to its isolationist strategy for developing, producing and distributing a vaccine for the novel coronavirus. On Tuesday, the Trump administration announced that it will not take part in the international efforts led by the World Health Organization (WHO) to distribute a vaccine equally around the world, according to The Washington Post.That means that if a vaccine is first developed in the U.S., it will stay here and likely go to the highest bidders rather than the corners of the world that most need it, but are unable to pay for it. Last month, the WHO announced that 172 countries around the world were joining together to form the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility, or COVAX, which will work to develop, test and distribute the vaccine equally, according to The Guardian. COVAX is a joint effort put together by the WHO, along with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Asked on Monday if the U.S. would join COVAX, White House spokesperson Judd Deere issued a statement that read: "The United States will continue to engage our international partners to ensure we defeat this virus, but we will not be constrained by multilateral organizations influenced by the corrupt World Health Organization and China." COVAX plans to purchase and distribute roughly 2 billion doses of a coronavirus vaccine by the end of 2021. On Tuesday, the European Commission announced that it will contribute $478 million to the effort, which includes many U.S. trading partners and allies, like Germany and Japan.The refusal by the U.S. to participate in a global effort to fight the coronavirus is worrying to public health officials and to academics who see international cooperation as a necessity to stopping the virus in an interconnected world. It also is an ominous harbinger when facing other international threats, such as the climate crisis. Experts say that the idea beyond COVAX is to discourage hoarding of the vaccine and to focus first on high-risk populations around the world, which, in the long run, will benefit the global community, according to The Washington Post. "No one is safe until everyone is safe. No one country has access to research and development, manufacturing and all the supply chain for all essential medicines and materials," said WHO Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in August, as The Guardian reported. "We need to prevent vaccine nationalism."
Could Religious Exemptions Trump a COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate? Well, That Depends - The longer COVID-19 rages on, the more the United States appears to be hanging its hopes on the development and rapid, mass distribution of a vaccine. Getting a safe and effective vaccine out to the public could be a game changer, health experts believe. But stopping the virus’s spread will only happen if enough people choose – or are required – to get vaccinated. But while some people may see it as their “patriotic duty” to get vaccinated, others won’t. Opponents may challenge vaccination requirements based on claims of religious liberty or under specific laws that would allow for a religious exemption from any COVID-19 vaccine mandates. In some states including Indiana and Massachusetts, there are laws allowing parents to cite religious reasons to opt out of childhood immunization requirements.But public hesitancy to vaccines was already one of the biggest global public health concerns even before the COVID-19 pandemic. Added to this are the vaccine misinformation and conspiracies that have flourished during the epidemic. These may explain why 35% of Americans say they will not get the vaccine. While troubling, it’s unclear how many in this camp will keep that opinion if COVID-related illnesses, injuries and disruptions to our lives continue, and a vaccine becomes readily available. But other experts have raised the possibility of a vaccine being mandatory as part of a “if/then” proposition– in other words, someone can only do something if they are first vaccinated. For example, proof of vaccination could be required to engage in certain jobs, such as prison staff or line workers in meat processing plants. Some businesses, such as nursing homes and hospitals might require vaccination for those who work with certain high-risk populations.It also could be required to gain access to certain spaces, such as schools or sporting events, or to qualify for certain benefits, like freedom to travel to other states without having to quarantine. These types of rules already exist, for example, in many universities, which require students living in dorms be vaccinated against meningitis.Another approach would be to mandate the vaccine for certain populations based upon risk characteristics, such as those who live in nursing homes.Under these scenarios, would religious or personal exemptions override any mandate? That depends on who issues the mandate.
Herd Immunity Is Not a Strategy --One of the pandemic’s most insidious misconceptions is getting closer to explicit national policy. On Monday, The Washington Post reported that a top Trump medical adviser, Scott Atlas, has been “urging the White House to embrace a controversial ‘herd immunity’ strategy.” Atlas subsequently denied the report, though during his time as a Fox News commentator he consistently argued in favor of fringe approaches that go hand in hand with the idea: namely that city and state shutdowns are deadlier than the coronavirus itself. The idea of abandoning preventive measures and letting the virus infect people has already gotten traction in the administration. Just last week, Atlas moved to ease up on the most important strategy to fight the virus—widespread testing—by telling the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to change its guidelines to advise againsttesting asymptomatic people. On Monday night, the president referenced the concept in an appearance on Fox News, explaining, “Once you get to a certain number—we use the word herd—once you get to a certain number, it’s going to go away.” But “herd-immunity strategy” is a contradiction in terms, in that herd immunity is the absence of a strategy. Herd immunity is an important public-health concept, developed and used to guide vaccination policy. It involves a calculation of the percentage of people in a population who would need to achieve immunity in order to prevent an outbreak. The same concept offers little such guidance during an ongoing pandemic without a vaccine. If it were a military strategy, it would mean letting the enemy tear through you until they stop because there’s no one left to attack.
How Trump Sowed Covid Supply Chaos - Sergio Melgar, the chief financial officer for the largest health-care system in central Massachusetts, was about to run out of medical-grade N95 masks. So Mr. Melgar took out his own credit card and authorized a $100,000 charge. “If I don’t do this,” he recalls thinking, “we will run out.” Days earlier, as the spread of the coronavirus pandemic was becoming clear in the U.S.,stoking panic about shortages of medical supplies, the Trump administration signaled to states they shouldn’t expect the federal government to meet their medical-supply needs. In a March 16 conference call, President Trump told governors that the federal government would try to help, but that for “respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment—try getting it yourselves.” What followed, say hospital administrators and state officials, was a nationwide free-for-all in which medical providers tried to get needed supplies any way they could, a situation that made it harder to protect health-care workers, treat infected patients and slow the spread of the virus. There was a sense, said Eric Dickson, chief executive of UMass Memorial Health Care and Mr. Melgar’s boss, that “we were all alone. There was nobody coming, there was no help coming. You were going to have to manage this on your own.” Less than two weeks later, Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Peter Gaynor told lawmakers that the federal stockpile—intended for use in severe public-health emergencies that caused local shortages—had run out of supplies for the states. The Trump administration has been criticized for minimizing the threat of the virus and offering mixed messaging on mask-wearing and other ways to reduce the risk of infection, among other things. For medical providers on the front lines of the crisis, the administration’s most consequential move was to put the burden on states to figure things out for themselves. Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and adviser told staffers: “We’re an organization with 56 clients,” referring to U.S. states and territories. “It’s not our job to secure supplies for them. It’s our job to help them.” Instead, the federal government’s approach turned hospital systems and state governments into rivals. Medical providers begged and scavenged for supplies. One doctor, worried his shipment of masks and gowns would be seized by another state, divided the supplies between two trucks to make sure at least some would get through. Some states turned against each other. One refused to give another contact information for lab supplies, fearful of being outbid. Governors kept shipment details secret. Other governors dispatched state police to airports to guard their cargo.
Bipartisan Bill Seeks To Curb US Reliance On China For Rare Earths - Ever since the first shots were fired in the US-China trade/tech/cold war in 2016, Beijing has frequently threatened to use its strategic position as the world's pre-eminent supplier of rare earth metals - a group of 17 elements used in everything from sophisticated weapons to cell phones to wind turbines to electric cars - as potential leverage which it could wield in response to any perceived foreign (read US) aggression, even if it has so far refused to use this particular trump card. And with Sino-US relations deteriorating by the day, pushing China ever closer to the day it may in fact ban rare earth exports to the US, US House lawmakers are now taking advance measures for when that day finally comes, and have introduced a bipartisan bill aimed at seeking to curb US dependence on China for rare earths. Rare earth elements are described as the ‘vitamins of chemistry’ — producing powerful effects in small doses The legislation was co-authored by Republican Lance Gooden and Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, both of Texas, and is similar to that introduced in May by Senator Ted Cruz. Republicans Will Hurd, Roger Williams, Pete Olson and Randy Weber, as well as Democrat Henry Cuellar, are co-sponsors of the bill. All are Texas representatives. The measure would give tax incentives for companies involved in the mining, reclaiming and recycling of critical minerals and metals from deposits in the US, Bloomberg reported. The bill is also part of a recent push in Congress to shift supply chains, especially in sectors viewed as critical for national defense, away from China and back toward the US; predictably, the effort has drawn broad support from domestic rare-earth companies which anticipate a major financial windfall should the bill pass. "The tax incentive seeks to level the playing field with regard to the subsidies China provides from mine to magnet," Pini Althaus, chief executive officer of USA Rare Earth, which is developing the Round Top Mountain deposit in Texas, said in a phone interview. "It would significantly improve the bottom line of any domestic rare earth project." Althaus also said the House measure which China would surely claim is a subsidy prohibited by the WTO, reduces the potential for China to dissuade investment in U.S.-based rare earth projects and supply chains, because those businesses will be better able to compete.
Pompeo Unveils Extensive New Restrictions On Chinese Diplomats In US - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Wednesday morning announced severe new restrictions on Chinese diplomats in the United States. He cited that American diplomats in China "face constant barriers to their work" and so Washington is responding in a commensurate way. "Today, the State Department imposed new requirements on senior PRC diplomats conducting meetings and events in the U.S. We will always advocate for fair treatment of our diplomats abroad," Pompeo introduced. Google Maps Street view of the Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C. This includes requiring senior Chinese diplomats working in the US to seek formal approval from the State Department in order to visit any American university campus or meet with local or state government officials. In a press briefing the top US diplomat cited China's own "opaque approval process" for American diplomatic personnel working in China, which ultimately prevents them from "conducing regular business, attending events, securing meetings, and connecting with the Chinese people." He specifically called out restrictions facing US staff when it comes to accessing Chinese university campuses, and even engaging the local population via media or social media.
China may dump U.S. Treasuries as Sino-U.S. tensions flare: Global Times - (Reuters) - China may gradually cut its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes, in light of rising tensions between Beijing and Washington, state-backed newspaper Global Times cited experts as saying. With Sino-U.S. relations deteriorating over various issues including coronavirus, trade and technology, global financial markets are increasingly worried if China would sell the U.S. government debt it holds as a weapon to counter rising U.S. pressure. “China will gradually decrease its holdings of U.S. debt to about $800 billion under normal circumstances,” Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, was quoted as saying on Thursday, without giving a detailed timeframe. “But of course, China might sell all of its U.S. bonds in an extreme case, like a military conflict.” China, the second largest non-U.S. holder of Treasuries, held $1.074 trillion in June, down from $1.083 trillion the previous month, according to latest official data. China has steadily decreased its holdings of the U.S. bonds this year, although some market watchers suspect China may not have necessarily sold U.S. Treasuries as it may have used other custodians to purchase Treasuries.
Low-income households should be prioritized after disaster strikes - Hurricane Laura made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in western Louisiana and eastern Texas Thursday morning, leaving yet-to-be counted damage and despair in its wake. As preliminary inspections continue in the disaster-declared places, one group is almost certain to be disproportionately harmed by the storm’s physical effects: low-income households, especially in under-resourced communities and communities of color. Study after study, and lived story after lived story, foretell the potential fate of cities like Cameron, La. (which had a 29.6 percent poverty rate before the pandemic and the hurricane) and Lake Charles City, La., (23 percent poverty rate), which were among the first places hit. As the winds die down and conditions are assessed, these cities will also likely be among the last to recover and receive public relief assistance. Low-income households too often slip through the cracks of relief and recovery assistance. In many cases, this is by design. Our disaster policies do not provide equitable help, leaving those most in need with insufficient resources to respond and rebuild. We surveyedexperts in disaster response last year who unanimously agreed that current federal disaster policies are failing our neediest households. That’s why we need to improve our federal disaster relief and recovery policies to ensure resources are getting to the people who need them most. Federal disaster relief funds are difficult to access, insufficient and delayed along the recovery path. The logistics of signing up for assistance can be a challenge for people with physical disabilities, with transportation or bandwidth limitations, or with limited language ability. Even for those who can apply, the paperwork, documentation and appeals are onerous, adding more stress to families who are already suffering. And low-income households with lower valued possessions orundervalued homes often don’t meet the federal criteria for severe needs, even when their losses may mean much more proportionally to their livelihoods than larger absolute losses for wealthier households. First, we need one consistent application for federal disaster assistance, with transparent eligibility requirements and easy-to-follow procedures and better data sharing among federal agencies. Streamlining programs and consolidating applications could also ensure households know all their options at the point of application. An increase in overall federal resources can also ensure sufficient recovery funds are available for families without savings, without access to credit and who can’t afford insurance. Reconstruction dollars must be prioritized for frontline communities and must arrive quickly. Permanent authorization of the Community Development Block Grants for Disaster Recovery is a start to achieving this goal. To ensure no one slips through the cracks, federal disaster programs must prioritize the communities most at risk not just environmentally, but also socially and economically. Disasters will increase in size, frequency, and devastation. Improving federal disaster relief and recovery is critical to respond to the scale of the need and to address inequities that policies and practices have created.
Democrats introduce legislation to revise FDA requirements for LGBT blood donors - Reps. Val Demmings (D-Fla.) and Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) introduced legislation on Friday that would require the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to revise restrictions on LGBT people, specifically gay men, that prohibit them from donating blood. The legislation, named the Science in Blood Donation Act of 2020, would mandate the FDA revise its guidance on on reducing the risk of HIV transmission by blood and blood products based on testing accuracy and a an "individual risk-based analysis" instead of based on their sexual orientation or gender identity, according to a press release. Previously, the guidance recommended that men who had sex with men defer a year before giving blood. But in March, blood donations from the LGBT community were brought to the forefront due to the COVID-19 pandemic. During the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak, there was a shortage in blood donations due to social distancing measures and shelter in place orders. At the time, the FDA reported that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused "unprecedented challenges" to the national blood supply. Therefore, a revised guidance was published in early April recommending a three-month deferral for gay men to donate blood. The April guidelines were to remain throughout the pandemic. Demmings, in the announcement said that a blood donation could be "the difference between life and death," noting that the current policy is based on "fear, stigma, and prejudice, not science." "Expanding the donor pool by hundreds of thousands of healthy Americans would save lives every day in emergency rooms and hospitals around the country," she said.
Trump administration considered using “heat ray” microwave weapon on migrants crossing the US-Mexico border Last week, the New York Times reported that in a 2018 meeting with top leaders of the Department of Homeland Security, officials suggested deploying a “heat ray” microwave weapon along the border region with Mexico, to stop and deter incoming immigrants; the suggested weapon is capable of burning the skin of its victims.What was originally developed as a crowd dispersal device by the US military, and eventually deemed too inhumane to be deployed and utilized in war, has been actively discussed in the highest circles of the US government for use as an anti-immigrant weapon.
Trump incites vigilante violence against peaceful protests in Wisconsin - In the week since a fascistic gunman killed two protesters in Kenosha, Wisconsin and seriously wounded a third, the Trump administration and its allies within the media and political establishment have defended the killings and the murderer. The actions of Kyle Rittenhouse, a 17-year-old Trump supporter who had previously attended Trump rallies, are the direct outcome of the incitement by this administration itself. It occurred during the week of the Republican National Convention, as speaker after speaker railed against the “radical left” and demanded the restoration of “law and order” in response to the protests over the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha last Sunday. Over the weekend, when asked to respond to the murders, Trump refused to condemn them. He repeated an earlier statement that they were “under investigation” and that the administration was “looking at it very carefully.” Trump added, however, that it was protesters who were to blame, saying that Wisconsin “should not have to put up with what they have been through,” referring to the protests. Others in and around the administration have been even more explicit in praising Rittenhouse. Donald Trump Jr., Trump’s eldest son, retweeted a post by right-wing commenter Tim Pool declaring that Rittenhouse “is a good example of why I decided to vote for Trump” and lauding him for deciding “to go up and protect businesses and offer medical support [to] people.” Last week, Fox News host Tucker Carlson praised Rittenhouse for attempting to “maintain order when no one else would.” Developments in Wisconsin have been followed by an escalating campaign by the Trump administration for a military-police crackdown in Portland, Oregon. Right-wing groups—including Patriot Prayer, which has ties with the Portland police—have been patrolling the streets of that city over the past week, firing mace and paintball guns against protesters and journalists. The strategy of the Trump administration is to wage the next two months of the election campaign under conditions of violence, military-police deployments and the threat of civil war. Its “law-and-order” campaign is being developed even as it is provoking violence and repression.
Trump defends Kenosha suspect as acting in self-defense - President Trump on Monday defended the actions of Kyle Rittenhouse, a teenager accused of killing two protesters in Kenosha, Wis. "We’re looking at all of it. That was an interesting situation. You saw the same tape as I saw," the president told reporters during a news conference at the White House. Trump described Rittenhouse as acting in self-defense, saying he was "very violently attacked" by demonstrators. "And it was something that we’re looking at right now, and it’s under investigation," Trump said. "But I guess he was in very big trouble. He probably would have been killed, but it’s under investigation." Asked if he backs his supporters taking matters into their own hands with weapons, Trump said he'd "like to see law enforcement take care of everything." Rittenhouse, 17, faces homicide charges after he allegedly shot and killed two people during protests Tuesday in Kenosha. The demonstrations came in response to the police shooting of Jacob Blake but have grown violent at times. The president has faced calls to condemn Rittenhouse, who attended a Trump rally and had posted support on social media for Trump and Blue Lives Matter. Press secretary Kayleigh McEnany was asked earlier in the day if Trump condemned Rittenhouse's actions, but she would not say. "The president is not going to, again, weigh in on that," she said.
Trump compares police who use force to golfers who 'choke'- President Trump on Monday compared police officers using excessive force inappropriately to a golfer missing a short putt, saying sometimes "they choke." Trump, in an interview with Fox News host Laura Ingraham, argued that police are in a difficult position because they are forced to make snap decisions, often when their life may be in jeopardy. But his golf analogy prompted Ingraham to interject. "They choke. Just like in a golf tournament, they miss a three-foot putt," Trump said. "You're not comparing it to golf," Ingraham chimed in, suggesting the media might jump on the comparison. "I'm saying people choke. People choke. And people are bad people. You have both. You have some bad people, and they choke," Trump added. "You could be a police officer for 15 years and all of a sudden you're confronted. You've got a quarter of a second to make a decision. If you don't make the decision, and you're wrong, you're dead. People choke under those circumstances, and they make a bad decision.
Trump Says Plane 'Loaded With Thugs' Under Investigation As He Claims People In 'Dark Shadows' Control Biden - President Trump claimed in a Monday night interview that a group of "thugs" in "dark uniforms" who traveled to Washington D.C. is currently under investigation. Speaking with Fox News' Laura Ingraham, Trump said that "somebody" got on a plane and traveled to the Republican National Convention last week, where groups of thugs were filmed harassing and chasing attendees following the event - including Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and his wife. "We had somebody get on a plane from a certain city this weekend, and in the plane, it was almost completely loaded with thugs, wearing these dark uniforms, black uniforms, with gear and this and that," said Trump, who added that the matter is "under investigation" and that he couldn't discuss the matter further - telling Ingraham "I'll tell you sometime." "There were like seven people on the plane like this person, and then a lot of people were on the plane to do big damage." "Planning for Washington?" interjected Ingraham. "Yeah, this was all happening," Trump replied. Leading into the exchange, Trump claimed that people in "dark shadows" control Joe Biden, and implied that they are responsible for the plane thugs. Watch, then rewind the interview for further commentary on the riots:
Several boats in Texas Trump boat parade have sunk - - Several boats participating in a water parade at Lake Travis in Texas called 911 on Saturday in distress, as some reportedly began to sink. The Travis County Sheriff's Office confirmed at least four boats sank on Saturday, according to The New York Times, and said it received several calls about boats in distress along the lake's Paradise Cove, Emerald Point and West Beach. It is unknown at this time how many boats experienced issues during Saturday's parade or the cause of the issues. Calls about boats in distress began at around 12:15 local time, a spokesperson for the department told the Times. Braden Frame, president of the Lake Travis Fire Fighters Association, said firefighters helped pull some people out of the water. Christa Stedman, a spokeswoman for Austin-Travis County Emergency Medical Services, said no injuries had been reported from the sinking boats.
A Most Violent Platform - THE DAY KYLE RITTENHOUSE SHOT THREE PEOPLE, killing two of them, during anti-police-brutality protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, a Facebook event page by a group calling itself Kenosha Guard urged people to come to the city with guns to protect property. A founder of the group called the announcement a “general call to arms.” Their page was touted by Infowars, and though multiple people reported it for promotion of violence, it wasn’t taken down until after the killings. Less than a week earlier, after years of reporting about Facebook’s extremism problem, the company had announced it would do more about violent militia content.Facebook said it had no indication that Rittenhouse had seen the Kenosha Guard event page, but it speaks to what the site has become: a repository, if not a promoter, of violent dissension and extremism. Having shed its (never-quite-accurate) reputation as the land of stale boomer memes and your high school friend’s baby photos, Facebook is now a place where it’s as convenient to assemble a militia gathering as it is to share video of murders committed by one of the militia’s ideological fellow-travelers. And the company seems to have no coherent plan to change this. Even after Rittenhouse’s arrest and indictment for double murder, Facebook is struggling to prevent its platform from being used to celebrate and promote his acts. The Guardian’s Julia Carrie Wong found that a fundraiser for Rittenhouse was shared more than 17,700 times, in violation of Facebook’s rules that prohibit praise or support of mass shooters. As Wong also reported, the social network is riven with pro-Rittenhouse memes, groups, and pages, with video stills of the shootings spreading widely. The same is true of Instagram, where there are hashtags and entire accounts in support of the accused killer. Memes celebrating the deaths of protesters were liked tens of thousands of times.
Nigerian Meddling: 80 Charged By FBI In "Massive Conspiracy" To Steal Millions Using Online Scams - 80 people have been charged by the FBI in a "massive conspiracy" to defraud millions of dollars from businesses, the elderly and vulnerable women, according to Oxygen. Most of those charged were Nigerian nationals, according to the report. Those charged were accused of using various online scams to deceive targets and convince them to hand over "at least $6 million". The group "attempted to steal another $40 million" after that. The suspects were said to have used both "romance scams" and "business schemes" that allowed them to hack into company escrow accounts. U.S. Attorney Nick Hanna said: “We believe this is one of the largest cases of its kind in US history.” One scheme uncovered was a Japanese woman who thought she had been conversing with a U.S. Army captain stationed in Syria. The two were pen pals before the relationship turned romantic and the man - we swear we are not making this up - "claimed he had discovered a bag of diamonds in Syria." He sought the woman's help and asked her to send money. The woman borrowed from family, friends and even her ex-husband, before sending over $200,000 to the man over the course of 10 months. Authorities later revealed the scheme was being run by "two Nigerian men based in Los Angeles" who relied on associates in Nigeria and other countries to assist them. The woman was "extremely depressed and angry about these losses," the federal complaint against the men stated.
Michael Hudson: How an “Act of God” Pandemic Is Destroying the West: The U.S. Is Saving the Financial Sector, Not the Economy - Before juxtaposing the U.S. and alternative responses to the coronavirus’s economic effects, I would like to step back in time to show how the pandemic has revealed a deep underlying problem. We are seeing the consequences of Western societies painting themselves into a debt corner by their creditor-oriented philosophy of law. Neoliberal anti-government (or more accurately, anti-democratic) ideology has centralized social planning and state power in “the market,” meaning specifically the financial market on Wall Street and in other financial centers. At issue is who will lose when employment and business activity are disrupted. Will it be creditors and landlords at the top of the economic scale, or debtors and renters at the bottom? This age-old confrontation over how to deal with the unpaid rents, mortgages and other debt service is at the heart of today’s virus pandemic as large and small businesses, farms, restaurants and neighborhood stores have fallen into arrears, leaving businesses and households – along with their employees who have no wage income to pay these carrying charges that accrue each month. Western civilization distinguishes itself from its Near Eastern predecessors in the way it has responded to “acts of God” that disrupt the means of support and leave debts in their wake. The United States has taken the lead in rejecting the path by which China, and even social democratic European nations have prevented the coronavirus from causing widespread insolvency and polarizing their economies. The U.S. coronavirus lockdown is turning rent and debt arrears into an opportunity to impoverish the indebted economy and transfer mortgaged property and its income to creditors.There is no inherent material need for this fate to occur. The pedigree for “act-of-God” rules specifying what obligations need not be paid when serious disruptions occur goes back to the laws of Hammurabi c. 1750 BC. Their aim was to restore economic normalcy after major disruptions. §48 of Hammurabi’s laws proclaim a debt and tax amnesty for cultivators if Adad the Storm God has flooded their fields, or if their crops fail as a result of pests or drought. Crops owed as rent or fiscal payments were freed from having to be paid. So were consumer debts run up during the crop year, including tabs at the local ale house and advances or loans from individual creditors. The ale woman likewise was freed from having to pay for the ale she had received from palace or temples for sale during the crop year. Whoever leased an animal that died by an act of god was freed from liability to its owner (§266). traveling merchants who were robbed while on commercial business were cleared of liability if they swore an oath that they were not responsible for the loss (§103).
It’s all on Trump - The Post Office is Trump’s responsibility. He appointed the Postmaster General. If he had asked for more funding, he would have gotten it. If there is any delay in delivering ballots this November, it’s on Trump. The integrity of the election is on Trump. He runs the intelligence services and is responsible for preventing foreign interference. With his leadership, Congress would have provided more funds to help states deal with the disruption caused by COVID-19. Any delay in counting ballots is on Trump. The continuing deaths and economic hardship caused by COVID-19 is now on Trump. It has been 6 months now since it was clear that COVID-19 would kill tens of thousands of people and wreck the economy. If Trump had led a federal effort to massively ramp up testing capacity, we could be testing 20 million people a day now. Everyone with COVID would quickly be identified and quarantined. The epidemic would be over and we could all go back to work and school and ordinary life. Every death, layoff, and eviction that occurs now on is on him. The looting and violence in American cities is on Trump. If he acknowledged the legitimacy of the protests and supported a reasonable police reform bill, the country would come together. There would be no opportunity for looters or violent counter-protesters. The frustration, chaos, and violence in our cities is on him. Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress can’t make Trump do his job, but at this point it doesn’t matter. He’s President. It’s all on him. Call him out.
How Congress can prevent a post-pandemic financial crisis - “Everyone is convinced that accounting standards are simply too boring and too intricate for anyone to pay attention to.” Those were the opening remarks of Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., during a House Financial Services subcommittee hearing earlier this year with accounting standards officials. Sherman, a CPA and the chairman of the subcommittee, is absolutely right. To most Americans, accounting is boring and appears too menial to spend time reviewing. However, when looking at the astonishing impacts accounting standards have on the U.S. and world economy, everyone would be well served to resist glazing over the rules, and pay close attention to what’s brewing in Norwalk, Conn., where the Financial Accounting Standards Board is headquartered. Paying close attention, however, is not sufficient. FASB is a self-appointed private entity operating with impunity and virtually no supervision from Congress or the federal financial regulators. Congress must act soon to ensure the Securities and Exchange Commission and other financial regulators have proper oversight of this powerful, private-sector organization. Lack of oversight of FASB has resulted in devastating impacts on the nation’s economy in the past and will continue to do so in the future if safeguards are not enacted soon. Congress and regulators must take proactive measures to ensure financial institutions are able to assist America’s small businesses and families in righting the ship. In order to do that, financial institutions must have the flexibility to work with customers whose accounts have been harmed by the virus and subsequent economic shutdown. Without forbearance for institutions, examiners will have very little alternative other than to force financial institutions to negatively classify loans and even write them off entirely. Banks will not be legally allowed to work with their customers but instead be forced to cut their losses and leave consumers, who have fallen on hard times through no fault of their own, out in the cold. In response, a second proposal called the Financial Institution Forbearance Act is a bipartisan bill that allows depository institutions to move assets that were modified due to the coronavirus impact to a separate account on the balance sheet where it will not be criticized by examiners or accountants for a temporary period of time. This additional time will also give families, businesses and banks time to work together to stabilize these loans and allow hardworking Americans to get back on their feet. Without it, we will almost certainly experience the collapse of local markets resulting from wholesale shutdowns of lines of business, as seen in the 2008 recession. This bill protects the economy from further damage without spending a penny of taxpayer money. The resiliency and ingenuity of the American economy can overcome any obstacle put in its way. However, regulation and complacency should not be allowed to slow the economic rebound. Congress must act to allow financial institutions to help their customers and save the thousands, if not millions, of jobs at stake. These bills are easy solutions that will not only help banks, businesses, local communities and millions of hard-working Americans, but it will be a catalyst for economic recovery once the pandemic is behind us.
Fed corrects stress test error for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs - — The Federal Reserve on Friday said there was an error in the calculation of the capital requirements for five banks that were subject to stress tests this year, which affected the capital requirements for Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. The central bank said it had miscalculated the loss rates for certain public welfare investments, which resulted in “an overestimation of hypothetical losses for those investments." To correct the error, the Fed updated the common equity Tier 1 capital requirements for Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to 13.2% and 13.6%, respectively, down from 13.4% and 13.7%. Citigroup, HSBC and Wells Fargo were also affected by the error, but the capital requirements for those firms remain unchanged. The Fed has instituted changes to prevent similar errors to the calculation of capital requirements in the future, and also conducted reviews of its other models used as part of its stress tests, which found no other errors, the agency said. Even with the updated capital requirements, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will still have the highest requirements out of the 34 largest banks that the Fed supervises. Goldman Sachs had appealed the Fed’s stress test results after they were published, but the Fed had turned down that appeal, along with appeals from BMO, Capital One, Citizens and Regions.
PPP lenders nearing $10B asset mark fear regulatory nightmare— Community banks are urging Congress and regulators to exclude Paycheck Protection Program loans from their total asset amounts out of increasing concern that participation in the government's pandemic relief effort will trigger new burdensome regulations. Participation in the coronavirus loan program for small businesses has helped push numerous institutions' asset totals beyond $10 billion. Crossing that key threshold brings supervision by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, pricing limits on debit interchange fees and required compliance with the Volcker Rule ban on proprietary trading, among other things. "Our best guess was that absent another M&A opportunity, we would not go over that level in 2020," said Van Dukeman, president and CEO of First Busey Corp. in Champaign, Ill., which went past the threshold this year thanks in part to PPP loans. "But we are there now.” The Independent Community Bankers of America urged lawmakers last month to pass legislation ensuring that PPP loans on banks' balance sheets do not result in institutions getting hit with a flood of new rules. “There’s all these regulatory demarcations that kick in based on asset size,” said Paul Merski, group executive vice president for congressional relations and strategy at the ICBA. “Banks are going to face being tripped up by these regulatory thresholds that could end up costing them additional money or … losing revenue.” The PPP closed to new applications on Aug. 8. Banks receive federal funding to back the loan issuances, but the financing remains on banks' balance sheets. Borrowers can seek to have the loans forgiven if they meet program criteria. However, with the forgiveness process hitting some bumps in the road, many banks are seeing an uptick in their asset amounts. According to the Small Business Administration, over half of the more than 5 million of total PPP loans were issued by institutions below $10 billion of assets, and those institutions accounted for nearly half of the $525 billion that was lent. “When the PPP program came along, the banks wanted to be able to help the businesses in their community,” said Rebecca Laird, of counsel at K&L Gates. “So they wrote these loans and they wrote them relatively quickly, so you end up with $2 billion worth of new loans in a community or state that you never had before on the books of the banks. So it was a very big jump.” The new regulations for banks could kick in because PPP loans have been sitting on banks’ balance sheets longer than they anticipated. “The intent of Congress and the intent of most banks is to quickly convert these into grants, but as we’ve seen the process has become much more time consuming, much more delayed, much more complex, where these PPP loans could be remaining on the banks’ books a lot longer,” Merski said. Under the Dodd-Frank Act, when a bank hits the $10 billion asset threshold, the CFPB becomes the primary agency responsible for enforcement of federal consumer finance laws. If an institution has $10 billion of assets at the end of the calendar year, it is also subject to the cap on debit interchange fees, a measure added to Dodd-Frank by Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill.
Devastating Lawsuit Targets Bank of America, Credit Suisse, and Bayer Board Members and Executives Over Disastrous Monsanto Acquisition - Yves Smith - A series of blockbuster cases against some of the very biggest names in European business haven’t gotten the attention they warrant, in part due to Covid-19 throwing a lot of sand into the judicial machinery. Deutsche Bank, UBS, Credit Suisse and Volkswagen are part of this legal march to the sea. But we’ll focus on the case filed first, Haussmann v. Baumann, a derivative lawsuit over Bayer’s disastrous acquisition of Monsanto. The original filing was in early March; we’ve attached the new amended complaint below. We’ll use it to discuss the legal approach all these suits take. We’ll then turn to the lurid facts of the Bayer-Monsanto deal, which even to connoisseurs of corporate governance train wrecks, is quite the spectacle. Each suit targets an epic level of value destruction, but they are not shareholder suits. They are derivative lawsuits, in which a shareholder steps in to act on behalf of a company that has been done wrong, typically by key members of its management and board. Important advisers may also be targets. The novel feature in these cases is suing in New York state court but using the parent company’s governing law, which for Bayer is the German Stock Corporation Act as the basis for asserting causes of action.1 Notice here the low bar for misconduct: simple negligence, plus the managers and board members bear the burden of proof that they behaved well! So the linchpin of these cases is getting a non-captured court to measure corporate conduct against these standards. Also observe another key feature: extremely generous D&O policies. That is serving as one of the deep pockets for this litigation. The other deep pockets are the investment banks, Bank of America and Credit Suisse. As the suit explains, they too have duties defined under German law, yet they failed abjectly in acting as independent advisers because they were hopelessly conflicted. In addition to acting as merger advisers, they were also providing financing, since Bayer, to avoid needing to get shareholder approval, did an “all cash” deal. That in turn led to Bayer engaging in over a dozen financings, including pricey bridge loans. That meant the banks had huge incentives to see the deal close, which resulted in them not looking at the Monsanto garbage barge very hard. The pleading describes how Bank of America, whose investment banking operations were flagging, was particularly desperate to book the income from the Bayer-Monsanto deal. The suit seeks a clawback of what it asserts are hundreds of millions of dollars in fees, plus punitive damages.
DOJ antitrust unit considers overhaul of bank merger review process— The Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division is considering a revision of its bank merger review process "to reflect emerging trends in the banking and financial services sector," the department said Tuesday. "Innovative emerging technologies are disrupting traditional banking models and introducing new competitive elements to the financial sector," Assistant Attorney General Makan Delrahim said in a press release. The Antitrust Division is inviting public feedback before it commits to an overhaul of its existing process for reviewing bank mergers, which has not been updated significantly since 1995. In August the Justice Department announced it would reorganize the Antitrust Division to create a single office dedicated to reviewing financial mergers. "The new financial services-focused section will build expertise across the waterfront of fintech, making it well positioned to understand how new entrants in these areas may spur competition with and among traditional players," Delrahim said in a speech last month by videoconference at an event hosted by Stanford University. In its announcement Tuesday, the Antitrust Division indicated it would seek broad feedback on the bank merger review process, including on whether the industry would benefit from “greater clarity” about how the review process overlaps with more recent antitrust guidance from the Federal Trade Commission. The request for comment asked whether the Antitrust Division should include nontraditional online banks in its analysis of competitive effects, in addition to whether the office gives “appropriate weight to online deposits” as well as “credit unions and thrifts” in its analysis. The Justice Department also asked stakeholders whether it would be “helpful to have joint guidance from the Antitrust Division and the banking agencies" — the Federal Reserve, Office of Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The division appeared open to updating core geographic components of the Justice Department’s antitrust review process for bank mergers as well. In addition to asking whether regulators should reconsider the use of geographic markets defined by the Federal Reserve, the Antitrust Division asked stakeholders how it should weigh “the dynamics of rural and urban markets” differently.
Four bankers of failed thrift charged with helping client embezzle funds - Four former employees of Washington Federal Bank for Savings have been charged with taking actions that led to the Chicago bank’s failure in December 2017. The Justice Department said in a press release Friday that Rosallie Corvitte, who was the bank’s chief financial officer, and Jane Iriondo, its corporate secretary, were indicted on charges of falsifying bank records and helping a customer commit embezzlement. Alicia Mandujano, a loan servicer, and Cathy Torres, a loan officer, were also charged. The indictments claim that the bankers worked with the client and “higher-ranking bank officials” to embezzle at least $29 million in the years before the bank’s closure. The customer, Robert Kowalski, and his sister, Jan Kowalski, were indicted last year on charges of defrauding his creditors and the trustee in his bankruptcy case. The criminal investigation is continuing, the Justice Department said. Washington Federal Bank for Savings was closed when the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency determined that it was insolvent and had at least $66 million in nonperforming loans. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. sold the bank to Royal Savings Bank in Chicago. Regulators intervened less than two weeks after John Gembara, the thrift’s chairman, president and CEO, was found dead at another customer's home. The Cook County Medical Examiner’s office ruled the death a suicide. A subsequent review by an internal government watchdog agency determined that supervisory lapses at the OCC made the failure’s costlier to the Deposit Insurance Fund than it should have been. The Treasury Department’s Office of Inspector General determined in a material-loss review released in November 2018 that if had examiners acted in a timelier manner the fraud “may have been uncovered sooner and the loss to the DIF and individual account holders may have been reduced.”
August 2020: Unofficial Problem Bank list Increased to 66 Institutions - The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest.As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for August 2020. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for August 2020. During the month, the list increased by one to 66 banks after one addition. From last month, aggregate assets increased by a sizable $5.7 billion to $58.4 billion. $5.3 billion of the increase in assets came from updated asset figures from the FDIC for the second quarter of 2020. Further, the asset growth was attributable largely to a $3.7 billion increase at Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas. A year ago, the list held 76 institutions with assets of $54.6 billion. Added this month was The First National Bank and Trust Company of Vinita, Vinita, OK ($347 million). This past Tuesday, the FDIC provided updated figures on the Official Problem Bank List. As of the second quarter of 2020, the FDIC said its list had 52 institutions with assets of $48.1 billion. Last quarter, the official list had 54 institutions with assets of $44.5 billion. Hence, there was a $3.6 billion increase in assets on the FDIC during the recent calendar quarter, which about matches that asset growth at Deutsche Bank.
Investors Have Stampeded Out of Stock Funds for Two Weeks – So How Did the Stock Market Set a New High Every Day Last Week? - Pam Martens - The S&P 500 stock index set a new record high on Friday, closing at 3508.01 – the first time it has ever closed above 3500. In fact, the S&P 500 set a record high close every single day last week. Here’s the actual closing numbers: […] Refinitiv Lipper has been reporting fund flows into and out of the stock market for the past 18 years. According to Refinitiv Lipper, for the week ending Wednesday, August 26, stock (a/k/a equity) mutual funds and stock ETFs had a combined negative outflow of -$7.8 billion. For the week ending Wednesday, August 19, stock mutual funds and stock ETFs had a negative outflow of -$6.6 billion. Put the two weeks together and you have investors yanking a net $14.4 billion out of stock funds. Where was the money going? For the most part, it was going into taxable bond funds.So exactly how can a stock market index be setting new record highs when investors are cashing out and the majority of the stock components in the S&P 500 are far from their record highs?The S&P 500 is made up of approximately 500 companies at any one time. The index is market capitalization weighted, a system that divides the market cap of a company by the index’s total market capitalization to determine its influence in the index.When you have six companies that have been dramatically outperforming other stocks this year, and just five of them (Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) make up more than 20 percent of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization, you can get an aberration in the pricing of the broader index.To put it simply, were it not for these six stocks, the whole S&P 500 index would be negative for the year. DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach, a veteran market watcher, calls this “classic bear market rally activity.” It is also known as “distribution” on Wall Street. That’s when the little guy is seduced into the stock market on the illusion that it is rocketing to one all time high after another. This gives the knowledgeable insiders that want out the necessary dumb money on which to dump their shares.
Industry groups call on NCUA to refine virtual examination process - Industry groups are calling on the National Credit Union Administration to further refine its remote examination processes as the pandemic drags on. NCUA earlier this year put onsite exams on hold indefinitely, meaning credit unions will continue to interact with examiners remotely for the foreseeable future. The agency pulled all of its examiners out of credit unions on March 16 due to the coronavirus. Advocacy groups responded to a recent request for input from the regulator by suggesting that one of the easiest ways to ease the exam cycle for credit unions could be done without the use of technology: exending the examination cycle. However, approaches varied regarding how to do that. Low-risk, well-run credit unions assets of less than $1 billion are currently the only institutions eligible for an 18-month examination cycle, and the Credit Union National Association recommended raising that threshold to $3 billion, leveling the playing field with banks. For its part, the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions didn’t specify an asset threshold but rather said all low-risk, well-run credit unions should be eligible for the 18-month timeline. A NAFCU survey last year found fewer than half of all eligible credit unions were receiving the 18-month exam cycle, and more examiners were spending more time in credit unions when conducting on-site supervision. Many were bullish on the possibilities of using videoconferencing technologies such as Google Meet, Skype and Zoom to facilitate remote interactions between CUs and examiners. However, an unidentified credit union writing for the CrossState CU Association, which serves credit unions in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, suggested those tools could be problematic. “At present I do not think that CUs across the spectrum have the necessary technology and experience, despite the strides made during the pandemic, to effectively conduct the remote communication that will be needed,” a representative for the credit union wrote. “We are also working with highly sensitive data on both sides and must be certain the processes used to share that data are extremely well-secured. Also, since so many credit unions rely on [third-]party business partners for key parts of their operations … having these partners invested in the communications tools and protocol being developed will be critical. Our credit union is very concerned that many institutions will find this a hurdle and a major investment in both human and hardware and software resources.” NCUA's questions for credit union raised the possibilty of getting information directly from some third-party providers, but that suggestion was shot down. Some credit unions told advocacy groups their preference was to keep control of their own data, in part because of the difficulty of ensuring cybersecurity best practices are in place at third-party providers. Cybersecurity was one of the most frequently raised topics in letters to the regulator, and many pointed out that aside from inherent cyber risks that come from using remote technologies, smaller institutions in particular may lack the resources needed for some remote supervision. A letter from the National Association of State Credit Union Supervisors noted that CUs needing technology assistance will likely not just need help getting up and running, but also maintaining and securing those tools.
Banks, consumer groups both got what they wanted in ‘mini-CFPB’ bill - California lawmakers are on the verge of enacting legislation to create a powerful state regulatory agency resembling the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau after negotiators agreed to legislative changes allowing banks and consumer advocates to both claim victory. The state Senate on Monday night approved the “mini-CFPB” bill that strengthens supervision and enforcement powers over financial services companies but limits the effects of the expanded authority on banks and auto lenders. Gov. Gavin Newsom could sign the measure within days as part of a larger budget bill. The imminent enactment comes after lawmakers had tabled the idea of the new agency as recently as June. The plan was revived last month, much to bankers' disapproval. But the California Bankers Association said last week that it was “neutral” on the identical bills in the state Senate and Assembly after successfully lobbying with other trade groups to exempt banks and auto lenders from the most dramatic reforms in the legislation, including the new agency's ability to bring "administrative actions" against financial firms outside of court. To satisfy consumer advocates, the bill was strengthened in other areas, including clearer authority for the agency to regulate commercial finance lenders. Meanwhile, other state reforms could accompany passage of the mini-CFPB bill. Lawmakers are voting on dozens of end-of-session bills, among them a student loan bill of rights and a separate bill to license debt collectors. "Depending on what happens, it could be the most powerful year ever for consumer financial protections in California," said Richard Cordray, the former CFPB director who has played a key role in crafting the legislation creating the new agency. If signed by Newsom, the legislation would create the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, or DFPI, to replace the existing Department of Business Oversight. The tougher regulator will have authority to bring both administrative and civil actions against previously unregulated industries, including debt collectors, fintech firms, credit reporting agencies and merchant cash advance lenders. A coalition of small-business groups and consumer groups agreed to a carve-out for banks and other licensees that means they will remain subject to existing DBO authorities, even though all of the operations will be housed within the new DFPI. In exchange, the carve-out will not be available for currently licensed payday lenders and student loan servicers, which will become subject to a much tougher enforcement regime. “The bill is expected to pass,” said Scott Govenar, a lobbyist representing auto lenders. While the new agency will still oversee banks, there was a desire among regional and community banks to bring unregulated entities under state authority. “The changes we were advocating for — that the intent of the legislation be to cover current entities that are unregulated and that there be no new enforcement authority over existing licensees — are now affirmed in these recent amendments … allowing us to be neutral on the bill,” said Beth Mills, a spokeswoman for the California Bankers Association.
CFPB’s latest underwriting revamp seen as boon to fintechs, GSEs - Lenders are hoping for a boost from a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau plan to make more loans eligible for "qualified mortgage" status, but consumer groups say the proposal violates Dodd-Frank Act protections. The CFPB last month proposed a new category of "seasoned QM" loans that shield lenders from legal liability. Loans that initially are not QM can still gain that status if they remain on a lender's balance sheet for at least three years and satisfy other criteria. The plan aims to help lenders such as fintechs that rely on alternative underwriting data whose loans are ineligible for QM at origination. Many also hope it will cushion the blow of Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-backed loans losing an exemption from CFPB underwriting rules. “This could provide some positive impact for borrowers and the secondary market,” said Eamonn Moran, of counsel at the law firm Morgan Lewis & Bockius and a former counsel in the CFPB’s Office of Regulations. “What the CFPB said in the proposal is specifically that at least some creditors are relying on nontraditional sources of income during underwriting, and creditors who use that information may not be able to originate a QM loan under current rulemaking restrictions." The agency said in its proposal that loans with three years of "seasoning" have enough payment history to be considered safe, and therefore worthy of QM's safe harbor. But Alys Cohen, a staff attorney at the National Consumer Law Center, said the CFPB’s plan undermines protections for consumers because Dodd-Frank allows homeowners to bring a claim against a lender at any time, not just in the first three years of the loan. She argued that expanding the safe harbor is unnecessary since borrowers rarely if ever take legal action claiming a mortgage lender has violated CFPB rules. “The narrative is that only QM loans are safe to make because they offer a safe harbor that is airtight from liability, but that narrative is not based on fact,” Cohen said. The Aug. 19 proposal says a loan could achieve QM status after the three years if it is secured as a first lien, has a fixed rate with fully amortizing payments and no balloon payments, does not exceed 30 years, and complies with CFPB restrictions for points and fees. The plan is tied to a broader effort by the Trump administration to release the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship. The bureau is also seeking to encourage lenders to originate mortgages for which lenders may use alternative data to verify a borrower’s ability to repay. Using alternative data means lenders often have to give up QM status, but some in the industry say that hurts borrowers' access to credit. The CFPB’s "reasoning, in part, will help provide access to consumers — that’s a big part of it,” Moran said. Meanwhile, a 2014-era policy that Fannie and Freddie loans are exempt from CFPB underwriting guidelines — including a 43% debt-to-income limit for QM loans — is set to expire as early as next year. The exemption is known as the GSE "patch." The CFPB has already proposed redefining QM, including replacing the DTI limit with a pricing-based standard, but some in the mortgage market say that is not enough to ensure compliance for GSE-backed loans once the patch expires.
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased in July --Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency increased to 3.24% in July, from 2.65% in June. The serious delinquency rate is up from 0.67% in July 2019. This is the highest serious delinquency rate since December 2012. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent RateClick on graph for larger image By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 5.57% are seriously delinquent (up from 5.00% in May). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (3% of portfolio), 9.36% are seriously delinquent (up from 8.37%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (95% of portfolio), 2.79% are seriously delinquent (up from 2.21%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years. Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus. This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 7.20%" --Note: This is as of August 23rd. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 7.20%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged relative to the prior week at 7.20% as of August 23, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans....“The share of loans in forbearance was unchanged, as the decline in the share of GSE loans was offset by increases for Ginnie Mae, and portfolio and PLS loans. The pace of new forbearance requests has been relatively flat across investor types, but for those with GSE loans, the rate of exits from forbearance regularly exceeds the rate of new requests,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The exception in these trends are borrowers with Ginnie Mae loans. The loss of enhanced unemployment insurance benefits, coupled with a consistently high rate of layoffs and uncertainty about the job market, are having a disproportionate impact on FHA and VA borrowers.”By stage, 36.71% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 62.43% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 0.86% are forbearance re-entries... This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last ten weeks. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained unchanged relative to the prior week at 0.10%." There hasn't been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased --Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of September 1st. From Forbearances Improve Slightly: After holding flat for the last couple of weeks, the total number of mortgages in active forbearance saw stronger than expected improvement, with the number of active forbearance plans declining by 147k (-4%) over the past week. Active forbearances are now down about 1M (-21%) since the peak in May.According to Black Knight’s McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker, as of September 1, 3.8M mortgages remain in active COVID-19 related forbearance plans, representing 7.1% of all active mortgages, down from 7.4%. Together, they represent $804 billion in unpaid principal. Of these, 75% have had their terms extended...As we covered in the most recent Mortgage Monitor report, forbearance starts have shown little impact from the reduction in expanded unemployment benefits thus far. Through the first four weeks of August, forbearance starts were down 13% M/M from the comparable 4-week period in July. September may provide the true test, though, as impacted borrowers were still receiving full expanded unemployment benefits up through July 31.More than 2M COVID-19-related forbearance plans are now set to expire in September, setting up a significant volume of extension/removal activity in late September/early October, reminiscent to what was seen in late June and early July, albeit to a slightly lesser degree. CR Note: I'm still expecting another disaster relief package soon, but we might see an increase in forbearance activity in the coming weeks as we wait for additional relief.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey — Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 28, 2020.... The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 40 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 28 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Both conventional and government refinancing activity decreased last week, despite 30-year fixed and 15-year fixed mortgage rates declining to near historical lows. Mortgage rates have remained below 3.5 percent for five months now, and it’s possible that refinance demand may be slowing and will not significantly increase again without another notable drop in rates,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase applications were essentially unchanged over the week and were 28 percent higher than a year ago – the 15th straight week of year-over-year increases. Lenders are reporting that the strong demand for homebuying is coming from delayed activity from the spring, as well as households seeking more space in less densely populated areas.” The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to 3.08 percent from 3.11 percent, with points decreasing to 0.36 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.
CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.5% Year-over-year in July -- The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Strong and Resilient: CoreLogic Reports July U.S. Home Price Appreciation Reached its Highest Level Since 2018: Nationally, home prices increased 5.5% in July 2020, compared with July 2019, and were up 1.2% compared to last month, when home prices increased 4.3%. In July, annual home price growth accelerated to its fastest rate in nearly two years. The one-two punch of strong purchase demand — bolstered by falling mortgage rates, which dipped below 3% for the first time ever in July — and further constriction of for-sale inventory has driven upward pressure on home price appreciation. The national HPI Forecast shows annual home price growth slowing through July 2021, reflecting the anticipated elevated unemployment rates during the next year. This could lead to an increase of distressed-sale inventory as continued financial pressures leave some homeowners unable to make mortgage payments, especially as forbearance periods come to a close. “Lower-priced homes are sought after and have had faster annual price growth than luxury homes,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “First-time buyers and investors are actively seeking lower-priced homes, and that segment of the housing market is in particularly short supply.” CR Note: The overall impact on house prices will depend on the duration of the crisis.
In Unprecedented Move, CDC Halts Most Rental Evictions Until End Of 2020 - In an unprecedented move on Tuesday, with Congress unable to reach a common ground on virtually any stimulus extension, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention unveiled today it would temporarily - at least through the end of 2020 - suspend most rental evictions for Americans struggling to pay rent due to the pandemic, in a step which CNN dubbed was "broader than eviction protections already in place." The move comes as negotiations on further coronavirus aid have been stalled as Republicans and Democrats refuse to budge on topline numbers for what a new relief package would cost.In a phone call with reporters, officials said the order will apply to Americans who qualified for direct payments under the CARES Act.To be sure there are some hurdles: renters will have to prove that they’ve taken "best efforts possible to seek government assistance to make their rental payments," and will have to "declare that they are unable to pay rent due to Covid financial hardship," and must show they "will likely become homeless or move into congregate housing settings if they are evicted", but that should not be a problem for anyone willing to live rent free indefinitely.Renters will also have to fill out several forms, found on the CDC’s website, and give them directly to their landlords to qualify for the program."This will be a declaration presented to the landlord, if that landlord approaches a tenant with an intent to evict,” an official said. Because the move is federally mandated, it “would become a criminal offence” if the landlord chose to ignore the declaration. But it could still end up in courts, possibly leading to legal actions that could show up on background checks or credit reports.And while landlords are being effectively stripped of most if not all of their rights with this extraordinary intervention, they will still be able to remove tenants for "committing criminal acts, threatening the health and safety of other residents, damaging property or other health and safety considerations,"
Retail Eviction Proceedings Pick Up as Economy Restarts – WSJ - Proceedings for the eviction of retail tenants are picking up across the country as courts reopen and states’ moratoriums on evictions are expiring or getting curtailed as the economy reopens. In Miami, a luxury-shopping-center landlord began legal proceedings to evict Saks Fifth Avenue two weeks ago for nonpayment of rent amounting to $1.9 million as of early July. In other parts of the country, smaller retail landlords also have filed lease termination and eviction notices to restaurants, bridal shops, entertainment operators and co-working tenants that haven’t paid rent and weren’t able to come to mutually agreeable modifications to their leases. Before the pandemic, most of these disputes end up getting resolved before the sheriff throws them out, but lawyers said they are seeing higher volumes of disputes which could lead to more evictions. “We hope and think that the outcome of the lawsuit is that Saks would come to its senses and pay its rent in full. If Saks still doesn’t do so, we’ll have a whole host of other options for the space,” said Matthew Whitman Lazenby, chief executive officer of Whitman Family Development, a private company that owns the ritzy Bal Harbour Shops in Miami. Saks Fifth Avenue has a ground lease with the outdoor mall and pays percentage rent, or a percentage of sales as rent. Compared to fixed rents, such lease structures already have built-in protections if sales fall. “It’s perplexing,” said Mr. Lazenby. Bal Harbour Shops was closed from mid-March until the third week of May, and Saks Fifth Avenue recorded stronger sales in June this year compared with last year, he said. Tens of thousands of leases have been modified, including deferrals or discounts, landlords say, in exchange for lease extensions or other concessions. “Unlike the majority of our landlord partners, Matthew Lazenby and the Whitman family have not acted in good faith. Not only have they chosen not to adequately assume their fair share of the damages created by the global health crisis still gripping our nation, they have used the press and legal system to bully tenants,” said a Saks Fifth Avenue spokeswoman, adding that the company has been able to work with other landlords “to amicably and logically share the losses incurred during the pandemic.” “For many years, Saks has been a significant part of the success of Bal Harbour Shops, and we expect to continue to be part of that success for a long time to come,” the spokeswoman added. The luxury-department-store operator, whose parent company Hudson’s Bay Co. went private in early March, had a hard time before Covid-19 competing with online upstarts and other rivals.While overall retail rent collections have improved to 77% in July from around 54% in April, some tenants, particularly from the apparel, fitness and theater categories, have continued to struggle with payments, according to data from Datex Property Solutions, a real-estate data firm that tracks rent collection on thousands of properties across the country.
Renters Spent a Record-High Share of Income on Rent This Spring - – WSJ -The rental squeeze is getting worse, according to a new report by Zillow, as people are paying the highest-ever percentage of their income on rent. Renters can expect to pay 30.2% of their income on rent, according to a Zillow analysis of rental and mortgage affordability in the second quarter released Thursday. That is the highest percentage ever, said Zillow, which has data going back to 1979. The number is significant in part because it shows rental burdens creeping past 30%, which economists consider an affordable proportion of income for people to pay on rent. Between 1995 and 2000, renters on average spent just over 24% of their incomes on rents. "Our research found that unaffordable rents are making it hard for people to save for a down payment and retirement, and that people whose rent is unaffordable are more likely to skip out on their own health care," said Svenja Gudell, Zillow’s chief economist. Rental affordability worsened in 28 of the 35 metro areas covered by Zillow. It remained especially poor in the New York area and pricey West Coast cities. Los Angeles renters could expect to pay 49% of their incomes in rent. San Francisco wasn’t far behind, with renters paying 47% of their incomes on rent. Even in New York and northern New Jersey–long considered a pricey place to rent–affordability has worsened significantly. Renters in the city historically paid about 25% of their incomes on rent and now pay 41%. In Miami, a city that was long considered affordable but has been dramatically transformed by luxury condos, renters now pay 44.5% of their incomes on rent. Renters have been becoming increasingly burdened thanks to a combination of rents rising due to increased demand and limited supply and income levels remaining relatively flat. That has put a squeeze even on working, middle-class households. For some renters there may be a way out: Buy a house. Mortgages remain very affordable. Buyers should expect to pay about 15% of their incomes on housing. Still, economists say the rising rents are making it even more difficult for renters to make the transition to buying because it is difficult to save for a down payment. Stricter credit standards have also made it more challenging to get a mortgage.
New Yorkers Flee for Florida and Texas as Mobility Surges - America’s real-estate meccas aren’t what they used to be as Covid-19 revives U.S. mobility. Far more people moved to Vermont, Idaho, Oregon and South Carolina than left during the pandemic, according to data provided to Bloomberg News by United Van Lines. On the other hand, the reverse was true for New York and New Jersey, which saw residents moving to Florida, Texas and other Sunbelt states between March and July. As August closes Monday with another move-out deadline, signs point to a sharp turn in U.S. mobility. Relocations had reached an all-time low in 2019, according to the Brookings Institution’s tracking. “We have seen increased mobility across the states -- driven by a fear of living in densely populated areas, a realization that the ‘old normal’ of commuting into a city office is still but a distant possibility, and the realization that remote work can be an effective, long-term option,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. About one in five Americans either have relocated during the virus outbreak or know someone who has, according to Pew Research Center’s survey published July 6. The beneficiaries have been competitors to dense cities that seem too crowded in a public-health emergency. Cities in Florida, Texas, California and North Carolina accounted for just under half of New Yorker relocations, data from United Van Lines show. Comedian Jerry Seinfeld deplored the trend in a New York Times commentary on Aug. 24. “Energy, attitude and personality cannot be ‘remoted’ through even the best fiber optic lines,” he wrote. Do-It-Yourself Moves Do-it-yourself moves “have increased considerably and consistently over the summer months” for U-Haul International, which rents trucks and vans, said company spokesman Jeff Lockridge, who declined to disclose exact figures. About a quarter of 2,000 real estate agents surveyed in late June said some home buyers have altered the location of where they are looking to purchase because of Covid-19. Those who shifted were now looking at suburbs and smaller towns, with fewer people looking at central cities, agents said. Coronavirus flight is particularly high in New Jersey and New York, where two thirds of United Van Lines’ moves are for relocations out of those states. The number of people looking to move from New York City during the pandemic nearly doubled from a year earlier, while interest in leaving the San Francisco Bay area jumped 31%, said Eily Cummings, spokeswoman forUnited Van Lines’ parent company, UniGroup.
Construction Spending Increased Slightly in July -- From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in July: Construction spending during July 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,364.6 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised June estimate of $1,362.8 billion. The July figure is 0.1 percent below the July 2019 estimate of $1,366.0 billion. Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,013.5 billion, 0.6 percent above the revised June estimate of $1,007.2 billion. ... In July, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $351.1 billion, 1.3 percent below the revised June estimate of $355.6 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential spending is 19% below the previous peak. Non-residential spending is 12% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars). Public construction spending is 8% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 34% above the austerity low in February 2014. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is mostly unchanged. Non-residential spending is down 4.3% year-over-year. Public spending is up 5.1% year-over-year.This was below consensus expectations of a 1.0% increase in spending, however construction spending for the previous two months was revised up slightly. Construction was considered an essential service in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors, but it seems likely that non-residential and public spending will be under pressure.
Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 150% Year-over-year - Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. Lumber prices are up 150% year-over-year. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through August 28, 2020, and 2) CME framing futures. Right now Random Lengths prices are up 156% from a year ago, and CME futures are up 144% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability. Clearly there has been a surge in demand for lumber and the mills are struggling to meet demand. This is the highest price for both Random Lengths lumber and futures.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 27.7% Year-over-year - From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 29 August: U.S. hotel occupancy decreased slightly for the second consecutive week, according to the latest data from STR.23-29 August 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):• Occupancy: 48.2% (-27.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$98.39 (-23.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$47.38 (-44.5%)
The industry sold 237,000 fewer room nights than the previous week, which represented a demand decrease of 1.3%. Week-over-week demand improvements were a constant since mid-April, but as summer ends and leisure travel fades, hotel performance gains have flattened.
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.
Millions Of Americans Had Their Emergency Savings Wiped Out By Downturn - A new survey via CNBC and Acorns Invest commissioned by SurveyMonkey, found that the virus-induced recession wiped out 14% or about 46 million American's emergency savings. About 17% had to tap into emergency savings to cover living expenses, 11% had to borrow money to cover everyday expenses, 6% stopped contributing to 401(k) or other retirement accounts, and 5% asked for rent relief. The survey of more than 5,400 adults in August found that older millennials depleted their emergency savings the most. About 26% of those aged 25 to 34 said their savings had been drained as they struggled to survive the downturn. Only 6% of boomers drained savings; they've been through multiple boom/bust cycles and understand the importance of saving for a rainy day. Unlike millennials who have only been through one recession. The survey's findings outline a similar message from former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen last week, where she warned in an op-ed, published in The New York Times, that millions of Americans are suffering. She said monetary policy by itself could not save the economy from the downturn, and the solution will require additional rounds of fiscal stimulus to thwart a deepening fiscal cliff. The virus-induced recession has caused unprecedented economic damage, while more than 30 million American's are collecting unemployment benefits. The labor market recovery has stalled as the Fed's new policy to raise the inflation target above 2% will result in a higher cost of living for tens of millions broke, jobless Americans. What's even more stunning is that a quarter of all personal income is derived from the government.
US Consumers Appearing Less Confident - Loomis, Sayles & Co. - Consumers are traditionally the engine of the US economy, and I believe consumer confidence is an important indicator of consumer intentions. The August reading of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index suggests that consumers are not feeling optimistic. The Consumer Confidence Index has two components: the present situation and expectations. The present situation component assesses consumer confidence about current conditions. This component declined sharply in February through May, reflecting virus concerns and the unprecedented collapse in employment and national income. After encouraging gains in June and July, the component fell again in August. As you can see below, consumer confidence in the present situation remains quite depressed, reflecting the continuing crisis. The expectations component assesses forward expectations of consumer confidence. This component avoided a precipitous drop during the pandemic—perhaps because people viewed the pandemic as temporary. But optimism may be fading. After rising in April, May and June, the expectations component fell 17.2 index points in July, one of the largest declines in the past 20 years. It fell another 3.7 index points in the August reading, taking the component to the lowest point since October 2016. Consumers do not appear upbeat about the future. I’m particularly concerned about the expectations component because consumers are unlikely to spend if they’re not confident in the future. I expect consumer spending to rise substantially in Q3 from the low levels reached in the first half of this year. However, the drop in both components of consumer confidence signals that the recovery may be running out of steam.
Wolf Richter: The State of the American Restaurant, City by City -Six months into the Pandemic, restaurants that haven’t given up yet are still in survival mode. In many places, dining outside has been allowed for weeks or months. That’s a problem for restaurants that don’t have any space outside. In other places, indoor dining is allowed, but only at reduced capacity, which is a killer in the tough restaurant business.One restaurant owner who is doing fairly well – he has a corner restaurant in San Francisco with wide sidewalks on both sides, and all his tables fit outside – told me that a sushi chef he knows with a tiny sushi place that seats only a few people switched to takeout, and suddenly there were no more limits to how many people he could feed, and his business boomed, and he hired another sushi chef to keep up.There are a few winners. Those that manage to be open and have enough room outside are busy and hard to get into. Others restaurants gave up.Inside dining at restaurants in California can start on Monday, but only at 25% or 50% of capacity, depending on county. No restaurant can survive for long operating on Friday and Saturday nights at 25% or 50% capacity.In the US, about 75% of the restaurants that took reservations before the pandemic are now taking reservations again, up from zero in April, according to data from OpenTable which provides online reservation services for 60,000 restaurants. Back on July 1, already 65% of the restaurants were taking reservations again, but then new outbreaks spreading across the country, particularly in the South, triggered some retrenching (chart via OpenTable): Another measure, “seated diners,” shows how many people actually sit down in restaurants to eat, drink, and be merry. This is a measure of the business volume restaurants are doing.OpenTable provides data on seated diners, whether they’re walk-ins or had made reservations online or by calling, based on a broad sample of 20,000 restaurants that shared that information with OpenTable. It compares daily “seated diners” on the same weekday in the same week last year.Overall for the US, there was the plunge to -100% (meaning zero seated diners), then the recovery, then the resurgence of the virus that caused some backtracking, and a renewed but more gradual recovery. Six months into the Pandemic, “seated diners” on August 27 were still down 47% from the same weekday in the same week last year (year-over-year, seven-day moving average): : The chart below shows five major cities in the Midwest for which OpenTable provides data. The bold red line is the US average for reference. As of August 27, the number of seated diners is down the least in Cincinnati (-26%, 7-day moving average), and down the most in Chicago (-65%, 7-day moving average):
Lower Electronics-Store Spending May Not Be What You Think - – WSJ -Americans spent more at retailers selling everything from cars to camping gear in July, but they spent less at electronics stores. How can this be when gadget-head consumers are equipped with everything from Fitbits to Beats by Dre headphones? One answer is that websites and general-merchandise stores are stealing sales from traditional electronics purveyors such as Best Buy and the struggling Radio Shack. Another reason is that electronics are getting cheaper. Sales at electronics and appliance stores fell 2.5% from a year earlier in July, according to the Commerce Department’s retail sales report released Thursday. But adjusting for inflation, that’s not a bad result. The price of products sold at those stores was down 6% in June from a year earlier. In fact, since the recession ended in mid-2009, the price of electronics is down 33%, by far the largest decrease of any category tracked by the Commerce Department. Overall prices are up almost 10% from six years ago, as measured by the personal-consumption expenditure price index. The reasons for cheaper electronics are numerous. Technology tends to get cheaper over time, so one-time status symbols such as smartphones and flat-panel TVs are now everyday items. Some would also argue that it’s been a few years since a new must-have item such as the iPad has been rolled out. New innovations tend to be more expensive and prop up overall prices. The global economy is likely also playing a role. Many electronics are produced overseas. As the dollar has gained strength against global currencies, that’s made foreign-made gadgets cheaper for American consumers.
August Vehicles Sales increased to 15.2 Million SAAR - Wards estimated light vehicle sales of 15.19 million SAAR in August 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 4.6% from the July sales rate, and down 11.0% from August 2019. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for August from Wards 2020 (red).The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April was the worst month. Since April, sales have increased, but are still down 11.0% from last year. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 15.19 million SAAR..
Parking Garages Idle as Car Owners Pull Out of New York City – WSJ - Manhattan parking-garage operators say they have lost thousands of monthly customers as many residents packed up their cars and moved out of New York City during the new coronavirus pandemic. “People are calling and canceling permanently saying they are leaving the city,” said Rafael Llopiz, president of the Metropolitan Parking Association, whose members often charge upward of $500 a month for a spot. Mr. Llopiz said almost all of the parking-association members’ monthly business is residential. Of the 82,000 monthly customers who usually patronize the trade group’s garages, Mr. Llopiz said only 33,000 spaces were filled by mid-August. Mr. Llopiz said monthly business is usually down about 5% in August. This August it is down 60%. Many car owners drove out of the city after the pandemic struck New York in March to stay with family or at second or rented homes. Now, with many school parents opting for remote learning and employers delaying the return to the office until the new year, some residents have decided to remain out of the city. Jeff Eckerling, chief growth officer for SP Plus Corp., said his company’s monthly business is doing better than the parking association average and is down about 25%. Many of the firm’s roughly 50,000 New York City spaces are located in Manhattan’s central business district. Mr. Eckerling said daily parking for commuters arriving between 6 a.m. and 10 a.m. has rebounded to about 95% of pre-pandemic levels. Other areas of the business that cater to events, hotels and nightlife continue to struggle with theaters closed and stores and restaurants operating at reduced capacity.
U.S. gasoline prices heading into Labor Day weekend are the lowest since 2004 - The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price as of the Monday before Labor Day weekend is $2.22 per gallon (gal) this year, the lowest level for this time of year since 2004, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly gasoline price series. U.S. gasoline prices are relatively low because of continued low demand for gasoline since mid-March, when travel demand fell because of efforts to limit the spread of coronavirus. During the peak of COVID-19 induced lockdowns, the U.S. weekly average regular gasoline retail price fell to as low as $1.77/gal on April 27. The average weekly U.S. retail gasoline price increased to more than $2.00/gal by early June and has remained relatively flat through July and August, but prices were still approximately 18% lower than gasoline prices at the same time last year. Note: June and July monthly averages are based on data from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report and weighted based on the number of days in the month. The August monthly average includes data through August 28. Monthly motor gasoline consumption in the United States, measured as product supplied, reached a low of 5.85 million barrels per day (b/d) during April 2020, the lowest level since 1974. Efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19 were most widespread in April, when total U.S. gasoline product supplied was down by about 37% from the previous April. Gasoline consumption increased to approximately 90% of levels seen last year by the end of June and have remained at about that level through the week ending August 28. Despite the increase from recent lows, gasoline demand remains 9% lower than the five-year (2015–19) average. U.S. gasoline prices vary regionally, reflecting local supply and demand conditions, different fuel specifications required by state laws, and taxes. Regional gasoline prices are usually the highest in the West Coast, as a result of the region’s limited interconnections with other major refining centers (including the Gulf Coast), tight local supply and demand conditions, and requirements for gasoline specifications that are more costly to manufacture. West Coast prices from July through August were down 15% relative to a year ago, averaging $2.82/gal in 2020. The Gulf Coast contained 53% of the country’s total refining capacity as of January 2020, and it produces more gasoline than it consumes. As a result, the price of gasoline in the Gulf Coast is often the lowest in the United States.
61 Million Americans Have Stopped Commuting Due to COVID-19 - The coronavirus has upended nearly every aspect of life in the United States, and Americans' driving behaviors and commutes are no exception. A new survey from ValuePenguin.com by LendingTree found that a large number of drivers no longer have daily commutes as they are working from home or have lost employment due to COVID-19, but this trend is starting to reverse as more Americans head back to work and school.
- 3 in 10 Americans with a motor vehicle said they no longer have a commute due to COVID-19, either because they're working from home (19%) or they were laid off or furloughed (10%). Yet 26% are back to their daily commute as of August, including essential workers and those whose employers reopened their offices.
- Some people are driving more than others: A significant number of parents with kids under 18 (47%) continue to hit the road daily. And 43% of people in New England, are driving every day too. Americans of retirement age are much less likely to drive every day. Only 22% of baby boomers and 22.5% of the silent generation were using their cars daily in August.
- Has there been a significant decrease in traffic? Of those surveyed, 38% of Americans said traffic remains reduced in their area amid the pandemic, though an additional 36% said that while traffic had previously dropped it is now back to pre-pandemic levels.
- The number of drivers who get gas weekly dropped by 26% in August versus prior to the pandemic. In January and February, 43% of drivers said they filled up at least once a week, but just 32% said they currently do so that frequently. At the same time, the number of drivers who fill up their tank less often than once per month doubled from 4% to 8%.
- More than a quarter of drivers made cost-cutting changes to their auto insurance amid the pandemic. About 14% switched to another provider that was offering better deals, 12% reduced the amount of coverage since they are driving less and 3% took one of their household's vehicles off the policy because their family is using fewer cars.
- More than one in six consumers stopped using rideshare services like Lyft and Uber altogether due to the pandemic. 13% said they're still using those services, but much less frequently.
According to Matt Timmons, a research analyst at ValuePenguin.com, "Some savvy consumers are using their decreased driving to their advantage and are paying less for gas and auto insurance." He adds, "While they may need to roll back those changes as driving returns to normal, most consumers don't expect normalcy to return anytime soon — meaning it may be worth drivers' while to assess their auto insurance and other car use related expenses and consider making changes."
Trade Deficit Increased Sharply to $63.6 Billion in July - From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $63.6 billion in July, up $10.1 billion from $53.5 billion in June, revised.July exports were $168.1 billion, $12.6 billion more than June exports. July imports were $231.7 billion, $22.7 billion more than June imports Both exports and imports increased in June.Exports are down 20% compared to July 2019; imports are down 11% compared to July 2019. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports),The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that the U.S. exported a slight net positive petroleum products in recent months.Oil imports averaged $40.60 per barrel in July, up from $35.34 per barrel in June, and down from $60.11 in July 2019.The trade deficit with China decreased to $31.6 billion in July, from $32.7 billion in July 2019.
U.S. Trade Deficit Widest Since 2008 in July as Imports Outpaced Exports – WSJ —The U.S. trade deficit widened in July as Americans’ appetite for foreign-made goods bounced back while exports rose more modestly. The foreign-trade gap in goods and services expanded 19% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $63.56 billion in July, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was the largest monthly trade deficit since July 2008, during the 2007-2009 recession. The growth of the deficit reflected a pickup in U.S. demand for foreign-made goods and services as states eased restrictions on business activities across the country. “The import side pretty much has bounced back, but the export side has not,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. Imports grew 11% in July to $231.67 billion as Americans bought more foreign-made vehicles, industrial supplies, capital goods and consumer products like cellphones and furniture. That pushed the monthly goods deficit to its widest level on record. While the U.S. usually runs a deficit in goods, it runs a surplus in services. That surplus, in services such as tourism, medical care and higher education, shrank in July to its lowest level since August 2012 as many foreign visitors stayed home due to the coronavirus pandemic and international border closures. Restrictions on travel, many of which remain in place, also make it difficult for exporters to find new foreign customers.Exports picked up in July by 8.1% to $168.11 billion from June’s $155.48 billion. Exports of vehicles, consumer goods, industrial supplies and capital goods all rose. Still, exports remained well below the $209.65 billion level seen in February before the pandemic.
AAR: August Rail Carloads down 14.9% YoY, Intermodal Up 3.0% YoY -From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Does slow and steady really win the race? U.S. railroads might find out, because slow and steady (with a long way to go) generally describes the improvements in U.S. carload traffic in recent months.Total U.S. rail carloads fell 14.9% in August 2020 from August 2019. their 19th straight year-over year decline. That’s not great, obviously, but it’s the smallest percentage decline since March 2020. ... Intermodal, though, is doing great. ... Relatively strong consumer spending on goods is helping intermodal. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2018, 2019 and 2020:U.S. railroads originated an average of 224,557 total carloads per week in August 2020. That’s the lowest weekly average for total carloads for August since sometime before 1988, when our data begin. It’s also down 14.9% from August 2019. Still, there’s progress: August 2020 had the highest weekly average carloads and the smallest year-over-year percentage decline in five months.In the first eight months of 2020, total carloads were down 16.0%, or 1.42 million carloads, from 2019. The second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2018, 2019 and 2020: (using intermodal or shipping containers): U.S. intermodal volume averaged 280,739 containers and trailers per week in August 2020 — the most since October 2018, the fifth most for any month in history, and up 3.0% over August 2019. The last time intermodal had a year-over-year monthly increase of any size was January 2019. ... total U.S. consumer spending is still well below pre-pandemic levels, but spending on goods (as opposed to services) is actually above pre-pandemic levels. That’s sure to be helping rail intermodal volumes. Note that rail traffic was weak prior to the pandemic.
US Factory Orders Surprise To Upside, Remain Down 6.2% YoY - After a solid 6.2% surge in June, US factory orders were expected to improve on that bounce with a 6.2% rise in July (especially after the scream higher in ISM Manufacturing's New Orders index yesterday), but the data was even better with a 6.4% rise (and a revised higher 6.4% rise in June). However, on a YoY basis, Factory orders remain down 6.2%... Graphs Source: Bloomberg. The 'v' is still there in the hard data, but it is nothing like as 'confident' as the 'soft data' suggests... We wait to see what Friday's jobs data says but for now, it is the 'soft' survey data that is leading the hype and 'hard' reality just not living up to the hype.
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 26% Year-over-year in August -The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the August 2020 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all time high of 575 thousand SAAR in September 2019. However heavy truck sales started declining late last year due to lower oil prices. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."
ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 56.0 in August - The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in August. The PMI was at 56.0% in August, up from 54.2% in July. The employment index was at 46.3%, up from 44.3% last month, and the new orders index was at 67.6%, up from 61.5%. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. This was above expectations of 54.5%, but the employment index indicated further contraction. This suggests manufacturing expanded at a faster pace in August than in July.
ISM Manufacturing Index: Up 1.8 in August - This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for August. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 56.0, an increase of 1.8 from 54.2 the previous month. Today's headline number was above the Investing.com forecast of 54.5 percent. Here is the key analysis from the report: “The Inventories Index registered 44.4 percent, 2.6 percentage points lower than the July reading of 47 percent. The Prices Index registered 59.5 percent, up 6.3 percentage points compared to the July reading of 53.2 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 53.3 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to the July reading of 50.4 percent. The Imports Index registered 55.6 percent, a 2.5-percentage point increase from the July reading of 53.1 percent. “After the coronavirus (COVID-19) brought manufacturing activity to historic lows, the sector continued its recovery in August, the first full month of operations after supply chains restarted and adjustments were made for employees to return to work. Survey Committee members reported that their companies and suppliers operated in reconfigured factories, with limited labor application due to safety restrictions. Panel sentiment was generally optimistic (1.4 positive comments for every cautious comment), though to a lesser degree compared to July. Demand expanded, with the (1) New Orders Index growing at very strong levels, supported by the New Export Orders Index expanding modestly; (2) Customers’ Inventories Index at its lowest figure since June 2010, a level considered a positive for future production, and (3) Backlog of Orders Index indicating growth for the second consecutive month. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) contributed positively (a combined 3.3-percentage point increase) to the PMI®calculation, with industries continuing to expand output compared to July. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — were flat during the survey period, due to supplier delivery issues returning and import levels expanding moderately. Inventory levels contracted again due to strong production output and supplier delivery difficulties. Inputs likely were the biggest impediment to production growth and contributed negatively (a combined 0.2-percentage point decrease) to the PMI® calculation. (The Supplier Deliveries and Inventories indexes directly factor into the PMI®; the Imports Index does not.) Prices continued to expand and at higher rates, reflecting a shift to seller pricing power — a positive for new-order growth. “Demand and consumption continued to drive expansion growth, with inputs representing near- and moderate-term supply chain difficulties. Among the six biggest manufacturing industries, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products remains the best-performing sector, with Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products growing strongly. Transportation Equipment also expanded, but at a low rate. Petroleum & Coal Products sunk into contraction territory. See report Here is the table of PMI components.
A good start to the month: August ISM manufacturing and July residential construction - Another month of data started out this morning with the first report for August, ISM manufacturing. It showed positive acceleration from July. The overall index came in at 56.0, up 1.8 from July. The more leading new orders subindex improved by 6.1 to 67.6, a very positive result (and reading over 50 indicates growth): These are both the best readings in two full years. Meanwhile July residential construction spending also increased a slight +0.1% from June (blue, compared with single family permits, red, right scale): Since residential contruction follows housing permits and starts with a short lag, it is not surprising that it has not improved more yet. But it is the least volatile of all of the leading indicators in housing, so is valuable for confirmation of the trend: in this case, that housing bottomed early in the summer and has improved since. So, good news to start the month.
Markit Manufacturing: Up in July - The August US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 53.1, up 1.8 from the 50.9 final July figure. Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in their latest press release:“The manufacturing upturn gained further ground in August, adding to indications that the third quarter should see a strong rebound in production from the steep decline suffered in the second quarter. “Encouragingly, new order inflows improved markedly, outpacing production to leave many companies struggling to produce enough goods to meet demand, often due to a lack of operating capacity. Backlogs of uncompleted work consequently rose at the fastest rate since the early months of 2019, encouraging increasing numbers of firms to take on more staff.“Key to the upturn was a jump in new export orders, which rose at the fastest rate for four years, reflecting improving demand in many foreign markets, and benefitting larger companies in particular. Disappointingly, new orders and export sales at smaller manufacturers continued to fall, highlighting an unbalanced recovery in favour of larger firms.” [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.
US Manufacturing Storms Ahead- ISM Smashes Expectations As New Orders Soar To 16 Year High -- Following more rebounds in 'soft' manufacturing survey data in Europe and Asia (and LatAm - Brazil Manufacturing PMI exploded to a record in July), both ISM and Markit's measures of US manufacturing sentiment were expected to continue their v-shaped recovery, and they did just that, when first the Markit PMI printed at 53.1, the highest level since January 2019, followed by the ISM Manufacturing, which smashed expectations, printing at 56.0, the highest since November 2018. Just like last month, the ISM surge was driven largely by New Orders which spiked from 61.5 to 67.6, the highest level since Jan 2004, and while employment continued to rise, from 44.3 to 46.4, it remains in contraction territory. Looking across the data, virtually all ISM components improved with the exception of Inventories which dipped for both producers and customers, a sign that destocking is taking place and which is actually bullish for even more future demand.
U.S. and Global Factory Output Picks Up, but Jobs Picture is Mixed – WSJ - U.S. factory output continued to grow in August, according to a pair of surveys released Tuesday, but the picture for employment was mixed, a possible sign of lingering uncertainty about the coronavirus pandemic among American manufacturers. Sluggish employment, if sustained, could pose a threat to the recovery just as the economy is starting to pick up following several months of pandemic-related lockdowns. Other manufacturing powerhouses such as China and Germany also saw continued contraction in factory employment. A survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing compiled by the Institute for Supply Management found that U.S. factory output grew in August at the fastest pace since November 2018, driven by a surge of new demand and faster export orders. An index of output posted a reading of 56 in August, up from 54.2 in July, ISM said. But firms continued to cut employment, reflecting a wariness about future prospects and health concerns that have prompted employers to try to put more space between each worker on production lines. A separate survey published by data firm IHS Markit, however, found employment in U.S. factories growing at the fastest pace since November 2019 while overall output grew at the fastest pace since January of last year. The firm said its U.S. manufacturing index posted 53.1 in August, up from 50.9 in July. Both surveys found that demand had picked up as the economy continued to reopen following the lockdowns imposed in the spring and early summer to slow the spread of the new coronavirus. An ISM index of new orders posted a reading of 67.6 in August, the fastest pace of growth since January 2004.
Dallas Fed: "Recovery Continues in Texas Manufacturing" in August - From the Dallas Fed: Recovery Continues in Texas Manufacturing Texas factory activity expanded in August for the third month in a row following a record contraction in the spring after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at 13.1, down slightly from July but still indicative of moderate growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also point to expansion this month. The new orders index advanced three points to 9.8, and the growth rate of orders index surged more than 10 points to 11.8. The shipments index rose from 17.3 to 23.3, while the capacity utilization index inched down but remained positive at 10.9. Perceptions of broader business conditions improved in August. The general business activity index turned positive after five months in negative territory, coming in at 8.0. The company outlook index registered a third consecutive positive reading, shooting up 11 points to 16.6, its highest reading in nearly two years. The index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks remained positive but retreated to 8.2. Labor market measures indicated solid growth in employment and workweek length. The employment index pushed up from 3.1 to 10.6, suggesting more robust hiring. Twenty-three percent of firms noted net hiring, while 13 percent noted net layoffs. The hours worked index pushed up five points to 10.5. This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for August. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through August), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through August) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through July (right axis). The ISM manufacturing index for August will be released on Tuesday, September 1st. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 54.5, up from 54.2 in July. Based on these regional surveys, the ISM manufacturing index will likely be at about the same level in August as in July. Note that these are diffusion indexes, so returning to 0 (or 50 for ISM) means activity is not declining further (it does not mean that activity is back to pre-crisis levels).
ISM Services Index decreased to 56.9% in August - The August ISM Services index was at 56.9%, down from 58.1% in June. The employment index increased to 47.9%, from 42.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI™ at 56.9%; August 2020 Services ISM® Report On Business® Business Activity Index at 62.4%; New Orders Index at 56.8%; Employment Index at 47.9%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 60.5% "The Services PMI™ (formerly the Non-Manufacturing NMI®) registered 56.9 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the July reading of 58.1 percent. This reading represents growth in the services sector for the third straight month and the 125th time in the last 127 months, with the exception of April's and May's contraction.This graph shows the ISM services index (started in January 2008) and the ISM services employment diffusion index.The employment index showed ongoing weakness with the sixth consecutive reading below 50.
Markit Services PMI: "Strongest expansion in business activity since March 2019" - The August US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 55.0 percent, up 5.0 from the final July estimate of 50.0. The Investing.com consensus was for 54.8 percent. Here is the opening from the latest press release: Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:“Surging inflows of new business helped propel service sector activity higher in August, with the sector growing at its fastest rate for almost one and a half years. Firms were often left struggling to meet demand and, despite taking on extra staff at a pace not seen for over six years, backlogs of uncompleted work accumulated at a rate exceeding anything recorded since 2009. The increase in backlogs of work bodes well for robust output growth to persist into September.“Combined with the stronger picture emerging from manufacturing in August, the improved performance of the vast service sector adds to signs that the third quarter will see an impressive rebound in the economy from the collapse seen in the second quarter.“However, the survey also highlights how the rebound is very uneven and the recovery path remains highly uncertain.“August’s growth was driven by financial and business services as well as tech firms, but consumer-facing sectors such as travel, tourism and recreation remained firmly in decline due to the need for ongoing social distancing.“Companies across the board also remain concerned about resurgent virus infections and the durability of demand in the coming months after the initial rebound potentially fades, with uncertainty over the Presidential election adding further risks to the outlook for many companies.” [Press Release]
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 833,352 NSA - Note: The DOL has changed their seasonal adjustment method, so to compare to the previous week, we need to use the NSA data. See Technical Note on Weekly Unemployment Claims: The Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) claims increased to 833,352 from 825,761 the previous week. These are directly comparable since the Seasonal Adjustment Factor was identical for both weeks.The DOL reported:In the week ending August 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 881,000, a decrease of 130,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 1,006,000 to 1,011,000. The 4-week mo ving average was 991,750, a decrease of 77,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,250 from 1,068,000 to 1,069,250. The previous week was revised up.This does not include the 759,482 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 607,808 the previous week.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Technical Note on Weekly Unemployment Claims --UPDATE: The NY Times has an article on this too: The Labor Department will start counting unemployment claims in a new way. The DOL has announced that they are changing the seasonal adjustment for unemployment claims: Beginning with the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims News Release issued Thursday, September 3, 2020, the methodology used to seasonally adjust the national initial claims and continued claims will reflect additive factors as opposed to multiplicative factors.This makes sense since the huge increase in weekly claims has been due to the pandemic.However, the DOL will not revise prior weeks, from Ben Casselman: Currently this is the a low season for initial claims, so the seasonal factor is below 100 (see data and seasonal factors here).For example, for the week ending August 22nd, initial weekly claims were 1,006,000 Seasonally Adjusted (SA), and 821,591 NSA. The seasonal factor was 81.7.The formula is (NSA Claims) * 100 / Seasonal Factor = Seasonally Adjusted Claims. So 821,591 * 100 / 81.7 = 1,006,000 (rounded to nearest 1,000). Switching to additive factors, my guess is the DOL would have added about 40,000 to the NSA number to report the SA number. So instead of reporting 1,006,000 for the week ending August 22nd, the DOL would have reported 862,000.As Ben Casselman notes, the DOL will not revise prior weeks using the additive factor. Since the seasonal factor for the week ending Aug 29th (to be reported tomorrow) is also 81.7, this means the number of SA claims would decline significantly, even with the same level of NSA claims.Total initial UI claims have risen in each of the last four weeks: Congress must act -- EPI Blog by Heidi Shierholz -Last week 1.6 million workers applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Breaking that down: 881,000 applied for regular state unemployment insurance, and 759,000 applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).This is the fourth week in a row that total initial claims have risen. Further, last week was the 24th week in a row total initial claims were far greater than the worst week of the Great Recession. If you restrict to regular state claims (because we didn’t have PUA in the Great Recession), claims are still greater than the 2nd-worst week of the Great Recession. And remember this: people haven’t just lost their jobs. An estimated 12 million workers and their family members have lost employer-provided health insurance due to COVID-19.There was a (mostly) positive methodological development with the release of the UI data this week—DOL changed their seasonal adjustment methodology. The way they had been doing seasonal adjustments was causing major distortions during this recession, and the change is a big improvement. One big problem, however, is that they didn’t revise prior seasonally adjusted data, which means you cannot compare seasonally adjusted numbers over time. So, remember this: It’s okay to use the seasonally-adjusted numbers, but if you want to compare UI data over time, use not-seasonally-adjusted numbers.An example of how to do it wrong: some are saying regular state UI claims dropped by 130,000 last week (from 1.01 million to 881,000). That’s wrong because it’s comparing two seasonally adjusted numbers that were calculated using two different methods (the old way and the new way). Regular state UI claims actually ticked up by 7,600 last week, from 825,800 to 833,400 (using not seasonally adjusted data). Including initial PUA claims, total initial claims rose 159,000 last week, from 1.43 million to 1.59 million.
ADP: Private Employment increased 428,000 in August -- From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 428,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “The August job postings demonstrate a slow recovery,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Job gains are minimal, and businesses across all sizes and sectors have yet to come close to their pre-COVID-19 employment levels. This was well below the consensus forecast for 900 thousand private sector jobs added in the ADP report. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 1.4 million non-farm payroll jobs added in August. Of course the ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.
August Employment Report: 1.4 Million Jobs Added, 8.4% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In August, an increase in government employment largely reflected temporary hiring for the 2020 Census. ... In August, the unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points to 8.4 percent, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 2.8 million to 13.6 million. Both measures have declined for 4 consecutive months but are higher than in February, by 4.9 percentage points and 7.8 million, respectively. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 10,000, from +4,791,000 to +4,781,000, and the change for July was revised down by 29,000, from +1,763,000 to +1,734,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined was 39,000 less than previously reported. The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In August, the year-over-year change was negative 10.25 million jobs. Total payrolls increased by 1.4 million in August. Payrolls for June and July were revised down 39 thousand combined. The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 61.7% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio increased to 56.5% (black line). I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later. The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased in August to 8.4%. This was at consensus expectations of 1.4 million jobs added, and June and July were revised down by 39,000 combined.
Economy added 1.4M jobs in August as unemployment fell to 8.4% amid persistent COVID-19 outbreaks - The U.S. economy added 1.4 million jobs in August as businesses shuttered by the COVID-19 pandemic continued to reopen and bring back workers, more than offsetting a fresh wave of layoffs by firms that have exhausted their federal loans. The unemployment rate fell sharply to 8.4% from 10.2% in July, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated that 1.35 million jobs were added last month. August’s payroll gains were healthy but marked the second straight monthly slowdown in hiring after employers added a record 4.8 million positions in June and 1.8 million in July. That’s a troubling sign considering the nation has recouped slightly less than half the unprecedented 22 million jobs wiped out in early spring as states closed down nonessential businesses such as restaurants, malls and movie theaters. “The fact that employment is settling into a trend of slow, grinding improvement is a worrisome sign for the broader recovery,” economist Lydia Boussour of Oxford Economics wrote in a note to clients. The latest figures were inflated by the hiring of 238,000 temporary workers for the 2020 Census who likely will be laid off in coming months. The private sector added 1 million jobs, down substantially from 1.5 million in July. Many states have allowed businesses to reopen in phases but others, especially in the South and West, paused or reversed their relaunch plans in July and August amid coronavirus surges. Recently, cases in those hot-spot states generally have trended down but the results have been mixed. Positive test rates have stayed high in Texas and Florida and edged down just slowly in California, Goldman Sachs says. As a result, many businesses are running at just partial capacity because of lingering state restrictions and consumer fears of contagion. Many struggling firms recently have exhausted the cash they received through federal loans that were forgivable as long as they retained or rehired workers. After meeting those terms, many are letting workers go again. Last month, the number of Americans on temporary layoff fell by 3 million to 6.1 million as more laid-off workers were called back. At the same time, the number of workers permanently laid off jumped from 2.9 million to 3.4 million, indicating that some temporary layoffs have become permanent. About 45% of unemployed workers said they were on temporary layoff, down from 56% the previous month. “The number of permanent job losses is mounting which is concerning and could result in scarring of the labor market,” says economist Rubeela Farouqi of High Frequency Economics. Meanwhile, Congress remains deadlocked over a new stimulus package that would provide more funds for teetering businesses and renew at least part of the $600 federal supplement to state unemployment benefits that expired in late July.
August Jobs Report: 1.37M Jobs Added, Unemployment Rate Drops to 8.4% - This morning's employment report for August showed a 1.37M increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was slightly below theInvesting.com forecast of 1.4M. Here is an excerpt from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In August, an increase in government employment largely reflected temporary hiring for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, in professional and business services, in leisure and hospitality, and in education and health services.This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note. Data collection for both surveys was affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In the establishment survey, approximately one-fifth of the establishments are assigned to four regional data collection centers for collection. Although these centers were closed, interviewers at these centers worked remotely to collect data by telephone. Additionally, BLS encouraged businesses to report electronically. The collection rate for the establishment survey was 77 percent in August, higher than the average for the 12 months ending in February 2020. The household survey is generally conducted through in-person and telephone interviews. However, for the safety of both interviewers and respondents, the vast majority of interviews were done by telephone, with in-person interviews conducted on a limited basis in some areas of the country. The household survey response rate was 70 percent in August, up from the low of 65 percent in June but well below the average rate of 83 percent for the 12 months prior to the pandemic. In the establishment survey, workers who are paid by their employer for all or any part of the pay period including the 12th of the month are counted as employed, even if they were not actually at their jobs. Workers who are temporarily or permanently absent from their jobs and are not being paid are not counted as employed, even if they are continuing to receive benefits. In the household survey, individuals are classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force based on their answers to a series of questions about their activities during the survey reference week (August 9th through August 15th). Workers who indicate they were not working during the entire survey reference week and expect to be recalled to their jobs should be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. As in recent months, a large number of persons were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff in August. Since March, household survey interviewers have been instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to temporary, coronavirus-related business closures or cutbacks as unemployed on temporary layoff. BLS and Census Bureau analyses of the underlying data suggest there still may be some workers affected by the pandemic who should have been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, the share of responses that may have been misclassified was much smaller in July and August than in prior months. Here is a snapshot of the monthly percent change in Nonfarm Employment since 2000. We've added a 12-month moving average to highlight the long-term trend.
U.S. Unemployment Rate Fell to 8.4% in August as Hiring Continued – WSJ -Unemployment fell sharply in August and hiring gains moderated, as the U.S. economy continued to recover from the steep downturn triggered by the coronavirus pandemic. Employers added 1.4 million jobs last month, helping push down the unemployment rate to 8.4% from 10.2% in July, Friday’s Labor Department report said. The jobless rate’s decline—it has dropped from near 15% in April at the beginning of the pandemic—put it below the peak from the 2007-2009 recession. That puts unemployment in line with past major recessions, though it is significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. The jobless rate stood at 3.5% in February, a half-century low, just ahead of the coronavirus crisis. State reopenings of their economies helped boost employment this summer, but the gains have cooled in recent months. The economy is operating with about 11.5 million fewer jobs than in February. “We’re in a very deep hole, and we’re working our way out of it,” said Gus Faucher, economist at PNC Financial Services Group. “We continue to see very good improvement in the labor market, but I think the improvement is going to be slower going forward.” The economy continues to face uncertainty with an average of 36,000 new Covid-19 cases a day and an increase ahead of Labor Day weekend, prompting warnings from some governors about persistent risks from the virus. Economists expect the initial hiring spurt from business reopenings to ease as state restrictions are lifted at a slower pace than earlier in the summer. Further, the number of unemployed individuals saying their layoffs are permanent rose last month to 3.4 million, a headwind to the pace of recovery in future months. Still, the number of unemployed individuals saying their layoffs were temporary declined to 6.2 million in August from 9.2 million in July, indicating many employers are bringing back workers. Retail and government hiring helped drive August’s jobs gains. Super centers and home improvement stores have seen employment increase during the pandemic, and other types of retailers, including department and furniture stores, are seeing a rebound after a deep decline. Meanwhile, Census hiring boosted federal jobs while state and local employment has held up relatively well as the school year gets under way.
August jobs report: continued slow incremental progress - HEADLINES:
- 1,371,000 million jobs gained. The gains since May total about 48% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report was 3,756,000 jobs gained, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
- U3 unemployment rate fell -1.8% from 10.2% to 8.4%, compared with the January low of 3.5%.
- U6 underemployment rate fell -2.3% from 16.5% to 14.2%, compared with the January low of 6.9%.
- Those on temporary layoff decreased 3.1 million to 6.2 million.
- Permanent job losers increased by 534,000 to 3.1 million.
- June was revised downward by -10,000. July was also revised downward by -29,000 respectively, for a net loss of -39,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
- the average manufacturing workweek rose 0.2hours from 40.7 hours to 40.9 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI and will be a positive.
- Manufacturing jobs rose by 29,000. Manufacturing has still lost-720,000 jobs in the past 6 months, or -5.6% of the total. 53% of the total loss of 10.6% has been regained.
- Construction jobs rose by 16,000. Even so, in the past 6 months -225,000 construction jobs have been lost, -5.6% of the total. Almost 2/3’s of the worst loss of 15.2% loss has been regained.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 3,200. Even so, in the past 6 months there have still been -21,200 lost jobs, or about 2.5% of the total.
- temporary jobs rose by 106,700. Since February, there have still been -471,900 jobs lost, or 16% of all temporary help jobs.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less fell by -921,000 to 2.281 million, compared with April’s total of 14.283 million.
- Professional and business employment rose by 197,000, which is still -1.475 million, or about 7%. below its February peak.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.18 from $24.63 to $24.81, which is a gain of 3.5% in the 6 months since the pandemic began. Gains had previously reflected that job losses were primarily among lower wage earners, who have been disproportionately recalled to work. That we have increased employment and increased wages as well is a very positive development.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose by 1.0%. In the past 6 months combined this has nevertheless fallen by about -8.5%.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 1.7%. In the past 6 months combined this has nevertheless fallen by about -6.4%.
- Full time jobs were responsible for 2.837,000 of the gain in the household report.
- Part time jobs were responsible for 991,000 of the gain in the household report.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons fell by -871,000 to 7.572 million. This is still an increase since February of 3.254 million.
- Included in the total were 238,000 census hires. Without these, the net gain in jobs was 1,133,000.
SUMMARY: This was another positive report, but with some shades of difference. The establishment survey was the smallest gain in the past 4 months, even before census hires are taken in to account. By contrast, the household report, which determines the unemployment rate, was much stronger. All of the leading indicators in the report were positive. Further, that average hourly wages for nonsupervisory jobs rose along with the number of recalls was very good news on the wage front.The one significant concern is that the number of permanent job losses increased to a level on par with April and June, the worst months since the pandemic hit. This is a sign that areas of unemployment are becoming permanent and will not automatically rebound with the control of the coronavirus.All in all, the message is that of continued substantial, but incremental, gains since the April bottom in jobs. At the rate of gains in the past two months, it would take another 8 months to regain all the jobs lost in the first two months of the pandemic. Politically, this is *relatively* helpful to the Trump campaign, but it is by no means good enough to overcome the huge losses overall this year. There will only be one more jobs report before the election, and unless there is a miracle in the next month - which is needless to say very unlikely - Trump is going to face Election Day with a poor jobs record.
Retail Stores Add Jobs as Shoppers Return – WSJ -Retail-industry hiring accelerated in August as more businesses reopened and more people left their homes to go shopping. Stores, gasoline stations, auto dealers and other retailers added a seasonally adjusted 249,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department said Friday. Almost half the growth occurred at general-merchandise stores, a category that includes large employers such as Walmart Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp. Vendors of electronics, appliances, furniture and garden supplies were among those that added jobs last month. Retailers have now added back 1.7 million of the 2.4 million jobs they shed in March and April, during widespread shutdowns of economic activity to stem the spread of coronavirus infections. “It’s encouraging to see retailers bring back these jobs,” said Sonia Lapinsky, a managing director in the retail practice at consulting firm AlixPartners. “Stores are opening and we’re seeing some pent up demand. Still, you need to put it in perspective against the millions of jobs lost this spring.” The pandemic shifted the retail landscape dramatically. Mall-based retailers and clothing stores have suffered deep job losses. State authorities ordered many of them to close this spring, and demand for their products has been softer even after reopening as many Americans working from home opt for pajama bottoms or shorts over dress slacks. Employment at clothing stores is down nearly 30% from February. However, employment at general-merchandise retailers, such as supercenters and warehouse stores, was up 10% in August from February’s prepandemic levels. Americans spending more time at home are upgrading their properties. Home improvement retailers, a category that includes Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Co., boosted their employment 6% from February. Consumers have also relied on Amazon.com Inc. and other online retailers, which has led to hiring in transportation and warehousing. In August and September, Amazon announced plans to hire 20,000 people in seven cities across the U.S. and in the U.K And many traditional retailers have proven to be nimble in turning bricks-and-mortar stores into fulfillment centers and locations for curbside order pickup,
Comments on August Employment Report – McBride - The labor market swings have been huge, and the August employment report was at expectations of 1.4 million jobs added, although private employment was below expectations.Leisure and hospitality added another 174 thousand jobs in August, following 4 million jobs added in May, June and July. Leisure and hospitality lost 8.3 million jobs in March and April, so about 50% of those jobs were added back in May, June, July and August.Earlier: August Employment Report: 1.4 Million Jobs Added, 8.4% Unemployment RateIn August, the year-over-year employment change was minus 10.25 million jobs. As expected, there were 238 thousand temporary Decennial Census workers hired (and included in this report). These jobs will be lost in a few months. "A job gain in federal government (+251,000) reflected the hiring of 238,000 temporary 2020 Census workers."This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the August report. This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In August, the number of permanent job losers increased sharply to 3.411 million from 2.877 million in July. Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The prime working age will be key in the eventual recovery. The 25 to 54 participation rate increased slightly in August to 81.4%, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 75.3%. From the BLS report: "The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 871,000 to 7.6 million in August, reflecting a decrease in the number of people who worked part time due to slack work or business conditions (-1.1 million)." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in August to 7.572 million from 8.443 million in July. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 14.2% in August. This is down from the record high in April 22.8% for this measure since 1994. This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.501 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This will increase sharply in September or October - since the largest number of layoffs were in April - and will be a key measure to follow during the recovery. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was at expectations but the previous two months were revised down 39,000 combined. The headline unemployment rate decreased to 8.4%.
One In Four Workers Say They Are Working Entirely From Home- Gallup - The coronavirus pandemic has led to a surge in remote work. However, that surge is more apparent in the number of remote working days for telecommuters than in the number of workers moving from on-site to at-home work. Since Gallup last asked about remote work in October 2019, there has been a modest uptick in the percentage of U.S. workers who report having ever telecommuted for work, from 42% to 49%. The recent figures demonstrate the growth in remote work over recent decades from 9% in Gallup's initial measurement in 1995. While the percentage of U.S. workers who have telecommuted has changed modestly, the average number of workdays telecommuters are working from home has more than doubled, from 5.8 days per month last fall to 11.9 days currently. Among all U.S. workers, the average number of telecommuting days has also more than doubled, from 2.4 per month to 5.8. These results are based on Gallup's annual Work and Education poll, conducted July 30-Aug. 12. The poll finds 26% of U.S. workers currently saying they have worked entirely from home in recent weeks, while 51% are working entirely from a location outside their home, with one in five reporting a mix of on-site and remote work. Nearly half of those who have ever telecommuted, 45%, say they have been working entirely from home in recent weeks, with another 14% working mostly from home. This question had not been asked previously, so it is not possible to know how those figures compare with before the pandemic. However, 13% of telecommuters and 5% of all workers in 2019 said they worked from home 20 days a month (assuming 20 monthly workdays). Now, the figures are 45% and 22%, respectively. As might be expected, telecommuting is much more common among Americans with a college degree than those without one. Employed college graduates are more than twice as likely as employees without a college degree to work remotely. This is seen in the percentages reporting that they have ever telecommuted, as well as in the number of days they report working remotely and in their self-reports of whether they are currently working entirely from home. The survey also shows that working women are more likely than working men to be performing their job functions remotely. The differences between younger and older workers' likelihood to work remotely are not statistically meaningful.
MGM Resorts to lay off 18,000 workers --On Friday, the casino and entertainment giant MGM Resorts International sent a letter to some 18,000 furloughed employees notifying them that their jobs are to be formally terminated on Monday. At the beginning of the year, the Las Vegas-based casino and resort chain had employed some 70,000 workers. This means that that MGM has now laid off about 25 percent of its workforce. This number is also equivalent to about 2 percent of the entire participating labor force in the greater Las Vegas metropolitan area, although the company has operations nationwide. With the arrival of the pandemic in America in March, MGM furloughed about 62,000 employees and shut down its casinos. Yet facing losses of billions of dollars in revenue, MGM and the other major casinos moved to gradually reopen over the intervening months, despite the risk to public health. In Clark County, Nevada, where Las Vegas is located, there have been just under 60,000 cases of COVID-19 and over 1,100 deaths. The laid-off workers will also lose their health benefits at the end of September, meaning they will face the prospect of being caught without access to medical care if they contract COVID-19. This will likely prove to be a death sentence for some of them. The Culinary Workers Union (CWU), the largest union in Nevada with some 60,000 workers, has not opposed these layoffs. Rather than call a strike, the CWU has put forward the tepid demand that workers be given the “Right to Return," or the right to be rehired to their old positions, at such time “when the economy recovers.” This is a demand that MGM, on paper, is already willing to meet. CEO Bill Hornbuckle said that laid-off employees will remain on the company's recall list and will retain benefits and seniority if they are rehired by the end of next year. The CWU recently proclaimed a “victory” in Nevada with the passage of the Adolfo Fernandez Bill, named after a utility porter who died after contracting COVID-19, which purports to enforce strict health regulations on casinos to help limit the spread of the disease. In reality, the bill immunizes businesses from liability unless they violate "controlling health standards" with "gross negligence." Given the fact that official health regulations are being continuously eroded by both the Trump administration and within Nevada—in April, Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman offered up the city's 650,000 residents as "guinea pigs" for re-opening—this amounts to a blank check to businesses to violate elementary safety precautions. Significantly, the bill was also supported by MGM.
United Airlines to cut 16,370 jobs as the pandemic rages - (Reuters) - United Airlines (UAL.O) said on Wednesday it is preparing to furlough 16,370 workers on Oct. 1 as the coronavirus pandemic continues to devastate the airline industry. Chicago-based United had over 90,000 employees before the pandemic brought the industry to a near standstill in March and had warned in July that 36,000 jobs were at risk of involuntary furloughs as demand remains weak. It reduced the final number of forced cuts thanks to demand for voluntary departures or temporary leaves. Airlines received $25 billion in U.S. government stimulus funds in March meant to cover payrolls and protect jobs through September, when the industry had hoped for a rebound. As bailout money runs out without a travel recovery in sight, airlines and unions have lobbied Washington for another $25 billion but talks have stalled as Congress has struggled to reach agreement on a broader coronavirus assistance package. U.S. passenger airlines are still collectively losing more than $5 billion a month as 30% of planes remain parked. Passenger travel demand is down about 70% and, on average, planes that are flying are half-full. United’s schedule for September is 63% smaller than a year ago. Among different work groups, its job cuts will affect around 2,850 pilots, 6,920 flight attendants, 2,010 mechanics and 1,400 management and administrative positions, among others, though negotiations continue with pilots to reduce the final number. Rival American Airlines (AAL.O) last week said it will lay off 19,000 workers without federal aid. Including voluntary departures or leaves, its 140,000 pre-pandemic workforce will shrink by 30%. Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) plans to lay off nearly 2,000 pilots without wage concessions, but has not yet said how many jobs for workers including flight attendants and mechanics are at risk.
Recent Wave Of Job Losses Casts Shadow On Recovery - The second round of layoffs, something we warned readers in early August, is unfolding across corporate America's global firms over the last couple of months as the labor market recovery in the U.S. stalls, dashing hopes the world's largest economy can sustain a V-shaped recovery in the back half of the year. MGM Resorts International and Coca-Cola Co were some of the latest examples of companies reducing their workforce. Goldman Sachs recently estimated that 25% of the workers temporarily laid off earlier this year wouldn't be able to find jobs, casting a shadow over President Trump's narrative of a robust recovery. "Global corporations have announced more than 200,000 job cuts or buyouts in recent weeks, a worrying sign that more losses will come as furloughs implemented early in the pandemic turn intpermanent layoffs," Bloomberg said.Here are some of the largest job-cuts and or buyouts announced in the last 30 days: […] Bloomberg calculates, since July 24, airline executives had cut, furloughed, or told at least 400,000 employees their jobs were in jeopardy. Last week, airlines were still cutting jobs: American Airlines Group Inc. said it would cut 19,000 workers after federal payroll aid expires, rounding out a 30% workforce reduction since the coronavirus pandemic began.United Airlines Holdings Inc. sees as many as 2,850 pilot furloughs this year without approval for additional government support.The outlook of the airline industry reflects a recovery that resembles an "L," and recovery back to 2019 levels that could take years. Airline corporate executives are realizing they don't need as many workers as they once thought, due to the continuing collapse in travel and tourism. The consumer goods and retail space could be much worse off than airlines - at least one million workers have been furloughed since early April. Many of these jobs are becoming permanent layoffs, with the trend getting worse in the back half of the year. Here are some of the latest furloughs or job reductions in the industry:
- Ulta Beauty Inc. said this week it brought back 17,000 of the 33,000 employees furloughed in April. Not all of the remaining workers will be able to return this year.
- Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. said in July it planned to cut roughly 4,000 jobs in the U.K.
- Coca Cola Co. offered early departures to 4,000 workers in North America, with more planned around the globe.
- Estee Lauder plans to shed 1,500 to 2,000 jobs worldwide, or about 3% of the workforce.
- J.C. Penney Co. is cutting its workforce during its bankruptcy proceedings, with plans to close stores and reduce its workforce by about 1,000 corporate, field management, and international positions.
- Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. will eliminate 2,800 jobs.
- L Brands Inc., which owns Victoria's Secret, is preparing to cut 15% of corporate jobs, or roughly 850 positions.
- Levi Strauss plans to eliminate 700 jobs.
The second round of layoffs is happening as the recovery stalled in late June/July, and a fiscal cliff could result in a plunge in consumption into the end of summer unless more stimulus checks are dished out by the government. Another industry plagued with recent buyouts and job cuts has been the industrial space:
- Boeing Co. is preparing to offer buyouts to employees for a second time this year, extending workforce cuts beyond the original 10% target unveiled in April.
- Raytheon slashed 8,000 jobs in its commercial aviation businesses at the end of July.
- Airbus S.E.'s CEO said early in July that a plan for 15,000 job cuts was not the worst-case scenario, and if the second wave of coronavirus were to emerge, the jet maker would need to adapt again.
Trump administration halts closure of California meatpacking plant despite eight COVID-19 deaths - The Trump administration intervened last week to postpone the closure of a poultry processing plant in California that had been ordered closed by local health officials after at least 392 workers tested positive for COVID-19 and eight died of the disease. Last Thursday, Merced County public health officials ordered that the Foster Farms plant in Livingston, California, be closed within 12 hours, but the order was suspended following the direct intervention of the administration through the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). As a result, Foster Farms has forced the plant’s roughly 2,500 workers to remain on the job, with the complicity if not outright support of the Democratic Party and the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) union. Immediately following the initial public health announcement, Foster Farms emailed its workforce ordering workers to report to work that evening. Then, following a call from USDA Undersecretary for Food Safety Dr. Mindy Brashears on behalf of the Trump administration, public health officials announced a 48-hour delay in the shutdown. The decision was supported by Democratic Livingston Mayor Gurpal Samra, who backed Foster Farms’ assertion that the initial shutdown time window was not sufficient. Foster Farms announced on Saturday that it will continue production until Tuesday evening, at which point it will suspend operations for six days for deep cleaning and mass testing. However, employees at parts of the facility “not experiencing an outbreak” are to continue to report to work. The rest will not be allowed to return to work until they have tested negative two times for the coronavirus. It is unclear whether contractors will be required to be tested. Workers are reporting that a smaller and largely unreported outbreak is simultaneously occurring at the nearby Turlock Foster Farms plant. Although the company refuses to release totals, at least a dozen workers, including many on a single shift, have contracted the disease. The decision to continue operating the plant during an uncontained outbreak of COVID-19 risks the lives of the plant’s 2,500 employees, innumerable contractors and their families and communities. Responsibility for this decision rests with Foster Farms, the Trump administration, the Democratic Party, including Mayor Samra and Governor Gavin Newsom, and the United Food and Commercial Workers union, the bargaining agent for the workers. .
"The Smell Of Rotten Meat": Garbage Is Piling Up Across Major US Cities As COVID Hits Sanitation Workers - Forget about the supply chain of drugs from overseas; we have bigger domestic problems right now. For example, trash appears to be piling up on streets of several major U.S. cities, as the coronavirus pandemic has more people working from home and as many sanitation workers quarantined due to getting Covid-19, according to the Wall Street Journal. Two of the hardest hit cities are Baltimore and Philadelphia, but pile-ups are also starting to occur in places like Atlanta and Nashville. In Virginia Beach, garbage men demanding hazard pay went on strike for a day, setting the city back several days. In New York City, trash is also adding up in some commercial corridors due to budget cuts, the article notes. David Biderman, executive director and chief executive officer of the Solid Waste Association of North America, told the WSJ: “Both large and small cities have been experiencing this double-whammy of increased waste volume as well as staffing shortages.” This has caused some people, like residents in South Philadelphia to take action on their own. The West Passyunk Neighborhood Association in South Philadelphia has trucked its own trash to city facilities more than once since the pandemic started. James Gitto of Philadelphia said: “Our streets looked like the city was abandoned. It’s a daunting task when you look out and there is trash everywhere.” He complained about the "smell of rotten meat" and listening to "cats fighting over the spoils" at night. Garbage sat outside for so long, he said, that it stained the sidewalk. Philadelphia sanitation supervisor Wanda Jones said: “You expect every week, on that day, to get your trash picked up. It’s frustrating for us not to be able to meet the needs.” She attributed the pile ups to sanitation workers being scared of Covid-19: “In the back of your mind, there is always worry and concern. Am I going to take it home to my children, to my spouse, to my mother?” Since the middle of the summer, Philadelphia has collected about 14,800 tons of trash a week from houses, which is up from about 10,700 a year prior. Personnel issues for sanitation businesses started in April and have persisted. Now, about 30% of sanitation staff is not working, versus 15% to 20% on average.
Amazon Drivers Are Hanging Smartphones in Trees to Get More Work - A strange phenomenon has emerged near Amazon.com Inc. delivery stations and Whole Foods stores in the Chicago suburbs: smartphones dangling from trees. Contract delivery drivers are putting them there to get a jump on rivals seeking orders, according to people familiar with the matter.Someone places several devices in a tree located close to the station where deliveries originate. Drivers in on the plot then sync their own phones with the ones in the tree and wait nearby for an order pickup. The reason for the odd placement, according to experts and people with direct knowledge of Amazon’s operations, is to take advantage of the handsets’ proximity to the station, combined with software that constantly monitors Amazon’s dispatch network, to get a split-second jump on competing drivers.That drivers resort to such extreme methods is emblematic of the ferocious competition for work in a pandemic-ravaged U.S. economy suffering from double-digit unemployment. Much the way milliseconds can mean millions to hedge funds using robotraders, a smartphone perched in a tree can be the key to getting a $15 delivery route before someone else.Drivers have been posting photos and videos on social-media chat rooms to try to figure out what technology is being used to receive orders faster than those lacking the advantage. Some have complained to Amazon that unscrupulous drivers have found a way to rig the company’s delivery dispatch system.In an internal email seen by Bloomberg, Amazon said it would investigate the matter but would be unable to divulge the outcome of its inquiry to delivery drivers. The company, through a spokeswoman, declined to comment.
Washington Postal Workers Defy USPS Orders And Reinstall Mail Sorting Machines - Postal workers in Washington State have reinstalled high-speed mail sorting machines—dismantled after controversial orders from the U.S. Postal Service— despite USPS orders not to put machines back in use. After embattled Postmaster General Louis DeJoy announced he would pause recent controversial changes to U.S. Postal Service protocol, the service told workers not to reinstall removed equipment.40 percent of the high-speed mail sorting machines in the Seattle-Tacoma area were disconnected or dismantled since the changes went into effect, according to KUOW Public Radio in Seattle, with workers in the Tacoma, Washington sorting plant saying eight of their 18 machines that sort and postmark letters were disconnected and pushed into a corner.A sorting machine in Wenatchee, Washington was also reconnected, against the orders of the Postal Service’s head of maintenance, Kevin Couch. Only two facilities, Seattle-Tacoma and one in Dallas, seem to be ignoring the Postal Service’s directive to leave decommissioned sorting machines out of use.
Out of Time: Regulators Must Prevent Utility Shutoffs | NRDC - The prospect of people across the country losing electric, water, or gas service for non-payment is being compared to a mid-pandemic tidal wave. Yet regulators are about to open the floodgates: As we turn to yet another month in 2020, we can see ahead that an estimated 35 million households across 14 states will no longer have mandatory protections from having their electricity shut off. State utility regulators must act now to prevent low-income and other vulnerable groups from facing additional dire circumstances during the devastating COVID-19 crisis. This includes millions of low-income households in Delaware, Illinois, Texas, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and New Mexico. Losing access to electricity, gas, or water can multiply health and economic risks, both directly and indirectly. For example, COVID-19 health precautions such as working remotely, attending school via the internet, or even hand-washing in hot water become impossible, and falling behind on bills can mean having to skip buying groceries, medication, or other necessities in order to be reconnected. These costs and harms are not distributed equally, either: Black and Latino communities already suffering higher rates of infection and death rates due to COVID-19 are at disproportionate risk of utility shutoffs, as well. This information, however, rarely reaches regulators, and even more rarely is it communicated by the vulnerable customers themselves. For example, Maryland regulators held a public conference last week to address the grim question of how struggling utility customers can retain service without utilities collapsing under millions of dollars’ worth of bills in arrears. (In some states, as many as one-third of all utility customers are behind on payments.) Despite being a recurring discussion point, the commission apparently did not reach out directly to low-income consumers to participate in the conference. On the other hand, topics included supposed “ideal” or “acceptable” utility disconnection rates of between 1,000 and 2,000 customers per week.
Philadelphia Mayor Shamed After Eating Indoors In Maryland While His City Remains Shut Down - In yet another example of liberal hypocrisy, Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney is being shamed by his city - whose restaurants he has barred from operating - and forced to apologize after he was spotted dining indoors in Maryland, without a mask, while his city remains shut down. Restaurant owners in the city are irate. A photograph of Kenney went viral early this week and the mayor's office later confirmed that Kenney was visiting a "friend's restaurant" on Sunday, according to ABC Philadelphia. Well known Philadelphia restauranteur Marc Vetri unloaded on the mayor on Instagram, writing: "Glad you’re enjoying indoor dining with no social distancing or mask wearing in Maryland tonight while restaurants here in Philly close, suffer and fight for every nickel just to survive. I guess all your press briefings and your narrative of unsafe indoor dining don’t apply to you. Thank you for clearing it all up for us tonight."
'Shoot On-Site'- Chicago Gangs Form Pact To Execute Cops Who Draw Weapons On Suspects, Says FBI --The FBI has warned Chicago-area law enforcement that nearly three-dozen street gangs "have formed a pact to 'shoot on-site any cop that has a weapon drawn on any subject in public'," reports ABC7. According to an August 26 'situation information report' from Chicago-based FBI officials, "members of these gang factions have been actively searching for, and filming, police officers in performance of their official duties. The purpose of which is to catch on film an officer drawing his/her weapon on any subject and the subsequent 'shoot on-site' of said officer, in order to garner national media attention." Alerts based on police intelligence, no matter how unspecific, are frequently distributed to law enforcement agencies according to investigators, especially when they involve threats to officers. The FBI's "Potential Activity Alert" is from "a contact whose reporting is limited and whose reliability cannot be determined." That could mean the information came from a police street source, a cooperating witness in an ongoing case, or from discussions overheard on a wiretap or other surveillance recording. -ABC7According to CPD Superintendent David Brown, there is an overall "sense of lawlessness" felt by local police, and the 'danger to police officers is real and increasing.'"I think it's bigger than a suggestion," said Brown. "I think 51 officers being shot at or shot in one year, I think that quadruples any previous year in Chicago's history. So I think it's more than a suggestion that people are seeking to do harm to cops."
Childcare During a Pandemic -The COVID-19 pandemic has led to widespread disruption in childcare, including school and daycare closures. While limiting congregation in childcare is an important policy for promotion of social distancing and reduction of viral transmission, it does not come without costs. For young children, in pre-pandemic times, themajority of children under 6 lived in households with all working parents and the shuttering of daycares created an immediate care need for millions of families. For school-aged children, school closures brought concerns about worsening health disparities, educational inequalities, and mental health. For adults, school closures made work challenging (both in-person and remotely) and the new need for in-home childcare could be an added economic burden for millions of families. As pediatricians and mothers working through the pandemic, we worry about the impacts of childcare and school closures on our patients and our children – and ourselves.To better understand childcare challenges early in the pandemic, we conducted a survey of parents about childcare access. We recruited a convenience sample of adult (≥18 years) parents of children <18 years via ResearchMatch, social media platforms, and physician listservs (intentionally oversampling among healthcare workers) between April 16 and May 7, 2020, when much of the country was under “stay-at-home” orders. The survey collected demographic, employment, and childcare information. The study was deemed exempt from review by the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia Institutional Review Board. We used institutional REDCap for survey management and Stata version 15.1 (StataCorp LLC) for statistical analysis.We found that among the 469 respondents, 301 (64.8%) reported having an essential worker in their household, including 214 (45.6%) healthcare workers. Among essential workers, we found that 79% indicated experiencing a change in childcare with the pandemic, 32% reported less consistent childcare, and almost 8% reported paying at least $500 more per month on childcare. Single parent households and those working in healthcare were less likely to report care for children at home with only immediate household members. These findings underscore the dramatic impact school and daycare closures had on essential workers during the pandemic.
Heavy TV and computer use impacts children's academic results - Grade 3 students who watch more than two hours of TV daily or spend more than one hour a day on a computer experience a decline in academic results two years later, a new study has found. The research led by the Murdoch Children's Research Institute (MCRI) and published in PLOS ONE, found heavy TV use at 8 to 9 years of age impacted on reading, equivalent to a loss of four months in learning by 10 to 11 years and heavy computer use predicted a similar loss in numeracy. MCRI Dr Lisa Mundy said the effects of electronic media on physical and mental health have received much attention but this new study linked its use to academic performance. The study recruited 1239 children from the Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study (CATS) whose academic performance was measured in Grade 3 and later in Grade 5 using the National Assessment Program - Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) results. The research found Grade 3 students who watched more than two hours of TV a day or used a computer for more than one hour a day predicted a 12-point lower performance in reading and numeracy at Grade 5 compared with their peers who consumed less. It also found watching more than two hours of TV a day in Grade 5 was associated with 12-point lower numeracy and reading scores, and using a computer for more than one hour a day with a 14-point lower numeracy result than their peers. There was no evidence of short or long-term links between videogame use and academic performance, despite finding that one in five children did not play videogames in Grade 3, whereas by Grade 5 this increased to one in four.
Elementary school students forced to use Taco Bell parking lot for internet in Salinas, California- This week, a photo of two elementary school students doing their schoolwork outside a Taco Bell went viral on social media. The photo shows the two young students sitting in the parking lot of the fast-food restaurant in Salinas, California with pencils and notepads in hand and computers in their laps. The students needed access to Taco-Bell’s free Wi-Fi signal because they do not have access to the internet at home. The photo prompted widespread condemnation of the city and school authorities for not doing enough to provide internet to children in need, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic while students are attending school virtually. There were countless posts from workers and young people expressing their anger and frustration at the vast gulf of inequality expressed by the photo, as well as sympathy for the children, and the thousands of other children who are in similar situations. In today’s world, an internet connection is as much a human need as electricity, running water, and housing. This recent photo is just a snapshot of the conditions faced by thousands of workers and poor people across the US, one of the wealthiest nations on earth. Approximately 15 million to 16 million K-12 public school students in the US live in homes with an inadequate internet connection, or have devices that aren’t equipped for distance learning, according to a study from Common Sense Media and the Boston Consulting Group published in June. Already, the “digital divide” that exists between rich and poor families is being used by some as a pretext to transition from virtual classrooms back to in-person learning even as tens of thousands in the US continue to be infected with the deadly coronavirus every day. Those who advocate the speedy reopening of California Schools claim that the digital divide puts poor children at a disadvantage. Parents and students should not be forced to choose between going to school and getting sick with the virus, or staying home with inadequate resources to participate in online schooling. On the contrary, the demand must be made to provide whatever resources are needed to make sure that all children receive high quality education, including decent housing, health services, and the tools and internet connection necessary for online education.
With thousands of new cases in US, opposition mounts against unsafe school and college reopenings - Opposition continues to mount to the unsafe resumption of in-person learning as outbreaks of COVID-19 cases hit schools and universities across the United States. The rush to reopen the schools by the Trump administration, as well as state and local governments controlled by both parties, takes place as infections in the United States surpassed 6.1 million on Sunday, with over 187,000 deaths.The full scope of outbreaks on public school campuses is not known because state and school district officials have sought to conceal the number of cases and silence educators who have attempted to warn the public. According to tallies kept by educators based on news reports, however, well over 3,000 students and staff members have become infected at public schools that have opened over the last several weeks.On Sunday night, CNN reported that more than 8,700 positive cases have been reported at colleges and universities in at least 36 states, including 1,200 students at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, more than 1,000 at Illinois State and Illinois Wesleyan universities, and 264 at the University of Dayton in Ohio. At Georgia College, with 500 cases and one of the highest COVID-19 rates in the country, students at the Milledgeville campus staged a die-in protest Friday to demand online classes, improved testing and rigorous contact tracing. On Sunday, Temple University in Philadelphia suspended in-person classes for two weeks after officials reported nearly 103 COVID-19 cases. Temple students and faculty members protested on the first day of classes, August 24, demanding a switch to online classes only. The battle over the reopening of public schools for more than 50 million students has become the focal point of working class opposition to the homicidal back-to-work policy in the United States and around the world. As the Washington DC-based publication The Hill put it Sunday, “The debate over in-person K-12 instruction planning is inseparably tied to the issues of child care needs and parents’ ability to return to the workforce to help revive the struggling economy.” In the nation’s largest school district, New York City, there is increasing sentiment for a strike to block Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio’s plans to reopen schools for 1.1 million students and 135,000 school employees on September 10. The city, which has already had nearly 230,000 coronavirus cases and nearly 24,000 deaths from COVID-19, will open under a “hybrid model,” with some students taking classes online from home every day and up to 700,000 learning remotely part of the week and going to school buildings for up to three days a week.
U.S. Coronavirus Cases Pass 6 Million, 180,000 Deaths as Schools Struggle to Reopen -While the rate of infection is slowing down in the U.S., the recent data shows that the country is far from having the novel coronavirus under control as the number of cases just passed 6,000,000, by far the most in the world, according to The New York Times. In fact, the U.S. has more than one-fourth of the world's 25 million cases.Even though the number of hospitalizations is trending down, the number of new infections per day remains around 40,000, showing that the surge in cases from the beginning of the summer is having a lingering effect, as The Washington Post reported.It took just 16 days for the U.S. to jump from 4 million cases to 5 million. Now it's taken 22 days to go from 5 million to 6 million, according to The New York Times database.While some coastal places that once saw huge spikes in cases — like New York and New Jersey — seem to have the virus under control, a handful of Midwest states are witnessing their numbers trend in the wrong direction. According to Reuters, the upper Midwest, including Iowa, Minnesota and both Dakotas have seen record one-day increases in cases, while further west both Idaho and Montana saw a record number of hospitalizations.South Dakota hosted an annual motorcycle rally in mid-August, which drew more than 365,000 visitors. So far, 88 cases in the state have been linked to that rally, as Reuters reported.These numbers have many school leaders and policy makers treading lightly as they look to reopen schools and grapple with how to enforce social distancing policies. As CNN reported, the challenge of reopening colleges is causing concern now that 36 states have reported positive cases at colleges and universities, accounting for nearly 9,000 recent positive cases.A large portion of those cases are from the University of Alabama, which has had over 1,200 positive cases since the school reopened for classes 12 days ago, according to its website, as CNN reported. The trend in cases is following where schools are reopening. For example, the counties in Iowa with the most active cases are also the ones that are home to the University of Iowa and Iowa State University, according to Reuters. Similarly, outbreaks in Kansas have been linked to four different sororities, as CNN reported.
Back to School…D’ya Think? - Kunstler - After the spring from hell, and two months of summer staycation, families across the land anxiously await the very dubious reopening of the school year. The Covid-19 virus has revealed structural cracks in the mighty fortress of public education. Some districts remain closed, or only tentatively and partially open. It’s easy to see where this is going. I got a letter this week from a high school physics teacher in New England — who wants to remain anonymous. He writes: “…Covid has initiated the death of public ed in America…. The state cannot decide whether we should start full remote or whether we should try some weird hybrid schedule. Nobody can make a decision. The union is pissed. They know most of the classrooms are poorly ventilated and too small and they see nothing but a ‘cruise ship’ scenario unfolding. Remote is terrible, but it is better than nothing….” Before we go further, remember the first principle of the long emergency: anything organized at the giant scale is liable to fail. During the post-war growth spurt, we consolidated all the nation’s schools into giant districts serviced by the yellow bus fleets bringing thousands of kids together in buildings designed to look like insecticide factories. And when that project was complete, what did we get? Two decades of mass shootings in schools. I don’t think we got the correct message from this — which is that this manner of schooling produces so much ennui and anomie that some kids turn homicidal by the time they hit their teens. The fact that this condition remains unrecognized, and certainly absent from public discussion, says a lot about our disastrous collective psychology of previous investment: having set up this miserable system at titanic expense, we can’t even think about changing it. Now, as is usual in human history, the process will happen emergently, on its own, whether we like it or not, because circumstances demand it. Another matter absent from news media is what happens when falling tax revenues start to bite the giant consolidated school districts. My physics teacher correspondent in New England writes: “School finances are in full reverse mode. Whispered in the hallways before every school committee and in every town council chamber is the awesome reality that sales tax and property tax collections are down 25 – 30 percent. The fear is palpable…. It seems to me that Public Ed as we currently know it will be history in about four years. It is a big edifice. It will take a few years to fully implode, but not a decade. There’s no money left to keep it going as it is.” And so, “technology” steps in to save the day: remote learning. It seemed like a good idea at the time, but the unintended consequences are pretty grim. Is it realistic to park little kids, say 1st to 6th graders, in front of computer screens for six hours a day? I doubt it. And now that we’ve set things up so that many households need both parents to generate income, who’s around to supervise the remote learning? Personally, I doubt that a majority of even high schoolers will stick to that regimen.
Teachers Strike Authorization Vote Looms as Union and City Launch Last-Ditch Safety Talks -- The city’s teachers union will spend one more day negotiating with city officials in the hopes of beefing up safety measures before school buildings reopen. But if those talks fall short, the union’s leadership plans to call a strike authorization vote Tuesday afternoon.Threatening a strike vote is meant to ratchet up pressure on Mayor Bill de Blasio to come up with more rigorous safety measures or delay in-person learning.Classes are scheduled to begin in just 10 days, and the union’s leadership has said that is not enough time to ensure buildings will be safe. Still, if union members authorize the leadership to call a strike, that doesn’t mean one will materialize.Union officials say that coronavirus testing remains a key sticking point.Michael Mulgrew, the president of the United Federation of Teachers, said that the city should require testing for all staff and students before they attend classes in person. The mayor insists on voluntary testing, provided at no cost at about 200 sites across the city, is enough to ensure infections are properly identified and handled.“We can’t afford to send students and staff back into any buildings until we have done everything possible — including a rigorous virus testing program — to see that they are safe,” Mulgrew said in a statement Monday evening. On Monday morning, de Blasio told reporters the city had considered and rejected that idea. “It’s something that we’ve looked at, but believe for a variety of reasons, it is not the best way to get to where we need to go,” the mayor said. “We’re having ongoing conversations with the unions about the best way to do it.”
Teachers union and Democrats agree to resume in-person learning in New York City schools New York City educators have reacted with horror and anger over the announcement by the United Federation of Teachers (UFT) that it has agreed to a plan to reopen the largest school district in the United States by mid-September. The deal with Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio will delay the opening from September 10 to September 16, with a resumption of in-person schooling for hundreds of thousands of children beginning on September 21. For weeks, educators, parents and students have been denouncing and protesting the reckless and chaotic plans to open schools for more than a million students and 135,000 teachers and support staff. New York City, an earlier epicenter of the pandemic with nearly 24,000 coronavirus-related deaths, is the only large urban district that will open this fall with in-person learning. With anger reaching a boiling point, UFT President Michael Mulgrew announced last week that the union would seek authorization from union delegates to call a strike as a “last resort.” On Monday evening, the union’s 100-member executive board unanimously backed the proposal, and the delegate assembly, made up of building reps from more than 1,600 schools, was set to vote on Tuesday. Teachers protest against unsafe school reopening, August 3, 2020, in New York. (AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews) By Tuesday morning, however, Mulgrew and other union leaders appeared at a press conference with de Blasio, along with Schools Chancellor Richard Carranza, who said district officials “have been working night and day with our labor partners” to put together the plan. Mulgrew claimed the city had “the most aggressive policies and greatest safeguards of any school system in the United States of America.” The union’s delegate assembly approved the deal Tuesday night by an 82-18 percent margin. The union officials never intended to wage any serious fight. The same ploy was used by the Detroit Federation of Teachers over the past two weeks. After 91 percent of Detroit teachers voted in favor of a “safety strike,” the DFT announced a deal last week to open the schools under a hybrid model of in-person and online learning, combined with “hazard pay,” to entice teachers to return to schools in another city that has been an epicenter of the virus. The claim that the schools can be reopened safely in New York City or anywhere else is a patent lie. Many if not most of the city’s schools are dilapidated and poorly ventilated, making them a vector for the spread of the virus. Under the union-backed plan, 10-20 percent of students and staff will be randomly tested starting on October 1 and only every month thereafter.
Charter Schools Find Gold in Federal Government Aid to Small Businesses While Black-Owned Firms Get the Shaft - The charter school industry has done much during the COVID-19 pandemic to add to systemic inequities that afflict black communities by hijacking small business relief aid originally intended for minority-owned businesses and redirecting these funds to schools that further isolate black families.When emergency aid for small businesses hit by the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic rolled out in North and South Carolina, black-owned businesses were mostly bypassed. Only 3 percent of loans worth $150,000 or more went to black-owned businesses, according toCharlotte-based WCNC, which analyzed loans awarded to small businesses that included race on their applications. Of the 2,026 small business owners and nonprofits who got the loans, only 64 of them were black, and 1,791 were white.In Tennessee, the story was much the same. When a Nashville Fox News affiliate compared the amounts of small business emergency aid given out to businesses in black communities in the city to those in whiter, wealthier parts of town, it found “a huge [negative] discrepancy when it comes to historically black neighborhoods.”This pattern held true on the other side of the country where San Diego public media station KPBSreported, “Storefronts in underserved communities south of I-8 couldn’t get any money.”In heartland Kansas City, KCTV reported, out of 4,677 emergency loans given to small businesses in the region, less than 5 percent went to minority-owned small businesses, and only 24—less than 0.5 percent—went to black-owned firms.In Milwaukee, Wisconsin, NBC affiliate WTMJ-TV reported, “Only 17 business owners identified as African American, representing 0.62 percent” of small businesses, were loan recipients.According to a nationwide survey conducted by Color of Change and UnidosUS, only 12 percent of black and Latinx business owners who applied for federal small business loans received the full amount of their requested relief. As a summary of that survey states, “Almost two-thirds… [of black and Latinx small business owners surveyed] report they have either received no assistance (41 percent) or are still waiting to hear whether they will receive any federal help (21 percent).”
California's Radical Brainwashing Curriculum Soon To Be Mandatory - Look out. Radical brainwashing will soon start. California will lead the way. A new California bill would establish a K-12 curriculum mandating classes in the ‘four I’s of oppression,’ ideological, institutional, interpersonal and internalized. The bill has sailed through the Senate and Governor Gavin Newsom is expected to sign it according to a WSJ Editorial. Last year California’s Assembly passed its ethnic-studies bill known as AB 331 by a 63-8 vote. Then the state department of education put forward a model curriculum so extreme and ethnocentric that the state Senate’s Democratic supermajority balked. The curriculum said among other things that “within Ethnic Studies, scholars are often very critical of the system of capitalism as research has shown that Native people and people of color are disproportionately exploited within the system.”The bill was put on ice, but protests and riots in recent months gave Sacramento’s mavens of racial division more leverage. The model curriculum now on the education department’s website says the course should “build new possibilities for post-imperial life that promotes collective narratives of transformative resistance.” Among the approved topics: “Racism, LGBTQ rights, immigration rights, access to quality health care, income inequality,” and so on.What about the fifth “I” of indoctrination? One course outline tips its hat at this. “Students will write a paper detailing certain events in American history,” it says, “that have led to Jewish and Irish Americans gaining racial privilege.” This is ugly stuff, a force-feeding to teenagers of the anti-liberal theories that have been percolating in campus critical studies departments for decades. Enforced identity politics and “intersectionality” are on their way to replacing civic nationalism as America’s creed. The California Bill is related to thinking of the New York Times' 1619 Project. The goal of The 1619 Project is to reframe American history by considering what it would mean to regard 1619 as our nation’s birth year. Doing so requires us to place the consequences of slavery and the contributions of black Americans at the very center of the story we tell ourselves about who we are as a country.The WSJ Laments Conservatives and fair-minded liberals are alarmed that high schools are drawing up plans to teach the “1619 project,” the New York Times ’ revisionist account of race and the American founding, in history classes. The reality is turning out to be worse. The largest state in the union is poised to become one of the first to mandate ethnic studies for all high-school students, and the model curriculum makes the radical “1619 project” look moderate and balanced.
Central Michigan University faces COVID-19 outbreak as campus opens - Just a little over a week into the fall semester at Central Michigan University (CMU) in Mount Pleasant, Michigan at least 117 new COVID-19 cases have been reported, according to the Central Michigan District Health Department. Isabella County, home to CMU, has upgraded its COVID-19 risk status to Red, the highest level in Michigan, and declared a Public Health Emergency. The Health Department stated that the outbreak is directly connected to students returning to the Mt. Pleasant area. The virus has quickly spread at the school of nearly 22,000 students, with confirmed cases nearly doubling on campus between August 17 and August 24. Isabella County also saw a 350 percent increase in infections in the third week of August compared to the previous week, coinciding with the restart of classes. CMU has yet to update the infections recorded on its website, stating that it will begin updating the count daily on Tuesday, September 1. In an interview with the World Socialist Web Site, CMU student activist Emily Jones described the campus environment, noting the lack of any infrastructure to deal with exposure to the virus, with only one mask and one packet of hand-sanitizer distributed to each student and no real systematic testing protocols. Campus life resumed with relatively little monitoring according to Jones, with parties occurring on campus daily and local stores and supermarkets filled with students. While other schools like University of Notre Dame and University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill moved quickly to online courses after mass outbreaks emerged on their campuses, CMU has thus far refused to do so. As is now common practice across the country, CMU President Robert Davies and his administration has sought to blame students for the outbreaks.
Colleges Are Testing Dorm Sewage To Detect Early COVID-19 Outbreaks - Colleges and universities which are opening for in-person, on campus classes this week and the next are apparently stopping at nothing to ensure they can detect COVID-19 cases early, especially as they struggle to prevent total campus shutdowns as happened last March when the pandemic hit the US, also as in many cases the very financial survival of a number of institutions of higher learning is at stake.Already stringent virus testing measures are in effect for new and returning students, but some schools are going to more extreme lengths. Testing students' shit - literally - is now a thing, apparently."The University of Arizona found early signs of COVID-19 in a student dorm this week by testing wastewater and were able to head off an outbreak there, school leaders announced Thursday," the daily newspaper Arizona Republic reports. "Researchers at the school have looked for traces of the virus in wastewater samples taken from the greater Tucson area since March and have gathered samples from 20 buildings on the UA campus since school started," the report states.The campus has some 5,000 students currently moving into their on-campus dorms and housing. At least one of the dorms' sewage water came back positive for traces of COVID-19."Earlier this week, data collected from the dorms found higher viral loads in wastewater samples taken from Likins Hall," AZ Republic writes further. This led the school to test all newly arrived 311 students in that dorm, resulting in discovery of two COVID-19 positive cases.
More than 900 University of Iowa students report coronavirus diagnosis - More than 900 University of Iowa students have reported testing positive for coronavirus as of Monday, with more than a third of the new cases being identified just since Friday. A total of 13 university employees have received positive results, including three new cases reported since Friday, the school said in a release. The university, which had its first day of classes last Monday, announced that 78 students who live in residence halls are in self-isolation after testing positive and 17 are in quarantine after potentially being exposed. On Friday, the university said in its release that “if the positive case rate does not begin to flatten next week, the university will consider additional actions.” The New York Times lists Iowa City, Iowa, where the university is located, as the second worst metro area for coronavirus per population, with 1,664 cases recorded in the past two weeks, amounting to 7.6 cases per 1,000 people. 178 coronavirus cases now reported at Virginia Tech Iowa State expects 25,000 at first home game Iowa City is also ranked fourth per capita for metro areas where new cases are increasing the fastest. The city counted 354 cases a week ago and now has 1,310 cases, a change of 552 per 100,000 people. Ames, Iowa, where Iowa State University is located, ranked first on both Times' lists. The rise in cases on campus come as universities across the country have reopened in recent weeks, though many, including the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Notre Dame University, have shifted classes online after spikes in cases.
Iowa State expects 25,000 at first home game - Iowa State University is expecting 25,000 fans at its season-opening football game on Sept. 12, the first since the coronavirus pandemic began, its athletics department announced Monday.Iowa State Athletic Director Jamie Pollard wrote a letter to fans saying the university will permit fans with season tickets to attend the first Iowa State Cyclones game of the season against the University of Louisiana at Lafayette.In the announcement, Pollard included a seating chart for Jack Trice Stadium that accounts for social distancing, indicating which seats are available and unavailable. The university will also institute several coronavirus "mitigation measures," including a ban on tailgating and a face mask mandate. The university said if fans follow the coronavirus restrictions, it will allow season ticket holders to go to the Oct. 3 home game against Oklahoma. But if fans do not follow the procedures, “we will have no fans at future games,” Pollard wrote.The announcement comes as Ames, the city where Iowa State is located, is listed by The New York Times as the metro area with the greatest number of new cases relative to its population, with 964 cases, or 8.2 per every 1,000 people, reported in the past two weeks.The Times also names Ames as the metro area where new cases are increasing the fastest on a population-adjusted basis. A week ago, there were 171 recorded cases, and now there are 793. The plans also come after Iowa saw its highest number of cases recorded in a single day, which occurred last week. The Iowa Department of Public Health reported 2,663 new cases after it counted positive results from rapid antigen tests for the first time, according to the Des Moines Register.
Hundreds at University of Iowa stage sickout as COVID-19 cases skyrocket - Today, hundreds of students and faculty at the University of Iowa are participating in a “sickout”—where instructors and students call in sick—to demonstrate against the university’s homicidal policy of continuing in-person education. The sickout was organized over the weekend by students and faculty across the university to demand all classes be moved online and quickly drew support. Organizers for the sickout released a pledge to stop work that netted over 600 signatures in four days. Iowa is a global epicenter of the pandemic, with Ames, home to Iowa State University, and Iowa City, home to the University of Iowa, occupying the number one and number two spots in the United States worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The state has a two-week moving average of 232 cases per 100,000 people. Tyson meat workers in Waterloo, Iowa, carried out a sickout in early May when more than 1,000 were sickened. After just one week of classes at the University of Iowa, more than 1,100 students and faculty have reported cases of COVID-19. Educators from across the university have reported mass infections in their classes, as the number of new daily cases at the school—which houses more than 30,000 students—has remained in the triple digits and the university still has 25 percent of classes happening face to face. At Iowa State University the positive rate in the second week of testing was over 28 percent. The sickout comes as the state of Iowa comes under fire for manipulating COVID-19 case counts after nurse practitioner Dana Jones, who had been tracking reported cases on her own, blew the whistle on the state’s systematic backdating of cases. The true number of cases in Iowa was discovered to be double what the state government had reported, the numbers used to force reopening of schools, workplaces, parks and restaurants. The university administration has responded to the sickout with hostility. University Provost Kevin Kregel emailed all university faculty condemning the action and suggested faculty are not living up to their obligations to students. In an astonishing display of hypocrisy, Kregel wrote: “The absence of faculty compromises our students’ ability to maintain the educational progress critical to their future success."
New York deploys COVID-19 “SWAT Team” to SUNY Oneonta after six percent of students test positive for virusA recent outbreak of COVID-19 cases at the State University of New York (SUNY) at Oneonta has resulted in 245 infections among students, six percent of the currently enrolled student body. This comes just one week after classes began and just one week before public grade schools are scheduled to open across the state, except in New York City where reopening has been delayed until September 21. In response to the outbreak, New York Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo has deployed a “SWAT team” of 71 contact tracers and eight case investigators to Oneonta, a city of 13,000 three hours northwest of New York City. Three rapid testing centers will be opened, offering 15-minute tests for free to all residents of the city. SUNY Oneonta is the first college in the state to suffer from an outbreak of COVID-19 this Fall. While the state government and SUNY system have acted quickly in response to the outbreak, it was their policies in the first place that not only made it possible, but inevitable. State universities have been allowed to fully reopen with in-person classes despite the diagnosis of tens of thousands of new coronavirus cases around the country every day. State guidelines for infections on campus are woefully inadequate. Schools are required to return to remote instruction for just two weeks in the event that more than 100 students or 5 percent of students, whichever is smaller, become infected over a two-week period. Colleges may return to normal activity if cases fall below the threshold. Sign up for our student and youth newsletter Subscribe If the local health department determines that the school is incapable of controlling infections then it may require the institution to continue with remote learning. Local and state Departments of Health have the authority to enforce a 100 percent transition to remote learning if it determines that smaller outbreaks are straining the ability of the school to contact trace and isolate students. What is being posited here is the idea that there is a reasonable level of infection, and by extension death, that is tolerable to the state government and SUNY system. It is irrational and unscientific to assume that infections will not translate to deaths among students and community members, and that even small clusters of cases will not spread off campus and possibly to other parts of the state. This is not simply lax control of the virus, but a deadly experiment with student’s lives to determine the effects of a full reopening of economic activity. Cuomo described colleges as the “canary in the coal mine.” The significance of this statement cannot be understated. Students are being sent into danger as a test to determine whether it is safe to reopen economic activity. But it is already known that it is not safe. As universities and public schools have reopened across the country thousands of students and educators have already become infected and dozens have died. Additionally, colleges are, as Cuomo also noted during his press conference, “similar to a dense urban environment.” One does not need to be a medical professional to draw the conclusion that placing students in a dense population would result in a rapid spread of the virus. This exact scenario has already played out in every city in the United States since March.
Coronavirus Spread At University Of Illinois Leads To Student Lockdown : A university that many researchers have touted as a potential model for reopening campuses to in-person classes is hitting some bumps in the road. The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign had implemented a mass coronavirus testing program for staff and students in an effort to keep virus spread on campus under control. But on Wednesday, the university reported rising numbers of positive coronavirus cases andannounced a two-week lockdown for undergraduates. Students were asked to avoid travel and limit in-person interactions, with exceptions for a handful of "essential activities," including mandated twice-weekly COVID-19 testing, in-person classes and grocery shopping.The University of Illinois has one of the largest mass testing programs of any American institution. The school is conducting, on average, between 10,000 and 15,000 saliva-based tests for COVID-19 daily, at times accounting for more than 2% of all testing done in the U.S. The decision to clamp down on students' movements calls into question whether any amount of resources and safety precautions makes it safe to reopen college campuses."We cannot test our way out of this pandemic," Rebecca Lee Smith, an associate professor of epidemiology and a member of the team behind the university's mass testing plan wrote on Twitter. The two-week lockdown doesn't mean the testing program failed, she wrote in another tweet: "We found a problem early, we had the data to identify the cause, and we have a chance to turn this around."In an email to students on Wednesday, college administrators blamed the high case count on student behavior. "The irresponsible actions of a small number of students have created the very real possibility of ending an in-person semester for all of us," the email said.
Northeastern says it won't refund tuition for students dismissed for breaking social distancing rules Northeastern University said it will not refund tuition for students it dismissed for breaking COVID-19 social distancing rules. The move was announced Friday as the Boston school attempts to prevent the pandemic from disrupting students' return to campus this fall, the Boston Globe reported. The university has already dismissed 11 first-year students after they were caught violating social distancing rules at a hotel that is being used as a temporary dormitory. The students were found at the Westin Hotel on Wednesday evening not wearing face coverings and flouting social distancing protocols, university spokeswoman Renata Nyul told the Globe. They will not be permitted to take classes online this fall but will be allowed to return in the spring. The students were part of a one-semester program for freshmen that was purchased in advance for $36,500, and their tuition will not be refunded. Northeastern said students who were dismissed would have the right to contest their dismissals at an expedited hearing. The university is one of several schools in the Northeast to allow students to return for classes despite the ongoing pandemic, though some have already begun rolling back in-person classes as cases on campuses ramp up. Schools such as the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill opted to move all classes online after attempting in-person courses, and Notre Dame temporarily shifted to online-only instruction, though it said it would begin a gradual resumption of classes after Sept. 2. There were 818 students enrolled in Northeastern's program this semester, and the school is one of the few renting hotel rooms to provide more distance between attendees this fall. The university said students were reminded on multiple occasions this week to follow pandemic protocols and were required to acknowledge reviewing the student handbook, which listed all of the required procedures.
Tales from America’s COVID college campuses - The Mass Illusion - America’s college students are returning to campus for the Fall semester, and many are finding themselves in an environment that no longer resembles an academic institution, but something closer to a correctional facility for young adults. It’s not just a handful of schools that are pursuing extreme restrictions and punitive measures in the name of “stopping the spread” of the coronavirus, but something that has become a nationwide norm. College campuses have transformed into some of the most restrictive environments in America. After hearing about these conditions, I sent out a post on social media asking for testimonials from students, parents, and educators. The responses below are some of the many replies I received discussing what students are experiencing in colleges and universities that have allowed for students to return to campus.
Student paper defends plan for segregated living spaces at New York University -The Washington Square News (WSN) published an editorial Monday defending the efforts to implement race-based housing at New York University (NYU). The student-run newspaper published its editorial under the headline “Providing Spaces for Black Students Does Not Mean Segregation.”The statement was produced in response to the outpouring of public opposition triggered by the World Socialist Web Site’s exposure of the initiative, which went viral on social media last week.The first point that must be made about the editorial is that it confirms the initial report by the WSWS, which stated that NYU was planning on implementing racially segregated student housing. Following this report, NYU issued a statement declaring it “false and misleading,” and the AP posted a fraudulent “fact-check” concluding that the report was “false.”As the WSN editorial states, the initital petition produced by the Black Violets student group requested “on-campus housing that provides Black-identifying students with a space to celebrate Black culture and find community and support.” It notes that the university issued a statement that it “was working with the authors of the petition to see how they could best achieve their goal of creating a safe space for Black students on campus.”While the editorial asserts that “NYU has not agreed to provide housing only designed for students of one race,” this is the clear and stated intent of the proposal. And the editorial goes on to explicitly defend racially segregated housing.The WSN argues that establishing racially separate housing for black students does not amount to segregation because segregation is “a term heavily associated with the creation of white-only spaces under Jim Crow laws.” “By creating a space for marginalized students in residence halls NYU is not segregating dorms,” WSN writes, “but providing Black students with a supportive place within an institution where they represent just over 10 percent of the previous year’s incoming class.”
Another judge blocks DeVos from withholding coronavirus relief money from undocumented students - A Massachusetts judge on Thursday blocked the Department of Education from restricting CARES Act funds to college students who are U.S. citizens. In the ruling, U.S. District Judge Leo Sorokin barred Education Secretary Betsy DeVos from enforcement of the rule for students attending Massachusetts universities. In guidance issued after the passage of the coronavirus aid measure, DeVos wrote that students must meet the eligibility requirements for federal student aid to receive the emergency grants in the package. The rule would exclude both undocumented students and some community college students. “It’s clear the CARES Act was written to help Americans recover from the coronavirus pandemic,” DeVos said in a statement to The New York Times in June. “U.S. taxpayers have long supported U.S. students pursuing higher education, and this rule simply ensures the continuity of that well-established policy.” Courts previously blocked the rule in Washington and California. “[T]he Court is not persuaded by the Secretary’s argument that (CARES Act) funds would constitute ‘Federal public benefits’ from which most non-citizens would be denied eligibility, nor that the Secretary’s election to apply 1611(a)’s restrictions to these funds as an eligibility condition would be lawful,” Chief United States District Judge Thomas Rice wrote in the ruling blocking the rule in Washington. “Consequently, the Court finds that the Secretary’s argument does not preclude a finding of plaintiffs’ likely success on the merits,” he added. DeVos’s handling of CARES Act funding is also the subject of an NAACP lawsuit filed in July. In the lawsuit, the NAACP accused DeVos of illegally altering the distribution of the $13.2 billion in school funding in the bill.
University of Florida graduate residents expose plans to quarantine COVID-19 victims in family housing - Many universities across the United States opened for face-to-face learning in August, putting the health and lives of students, faculty, and staff in danger by facilitating the spread of COVID-19. This includes the University of Florida (UF), located in Gainesville, where administrators have been exposed for secretly designating vacant apartments in Graduate and Family Housing (GFH) villages to quarantine positive cases of COVID-19. On August 22, an online petition was launched by GFH residents, opposing what they then only suspected was a discrete attempt by the university to prepare quarantine spaces within five family apartment complexes that are owned by UF. Residents who observed suspicious behavior, such as UF workers moving basic furniture into empty apartments that were supposed to be vacant, had already called and emailed the UF Department of Housing & Residence but received no response prior to the petition being launched. Within a few hours, hundreds of residents and their families had signed, and this precipitated the housing department finally responding with a letter addressed to the writers of the petition confirming their suspicions. The letter was also an attempt to downplay their understandable anger and anxiety. They claimed that the GFH villages would only be used “in the last extremity.” “When residents heard the news,” the updated petition currently explains, “many were alarmed, particularly since the coronavirus is known to be far more virulent than seasonal influenza. There was no public announcement or consultation about the plan or indeed concern for the views of residents.” Many of the families who take up residence in these facilities are international students who are bringing their families from abroad. This means that while such families have already been anxious over the uncertainties linked to the Trump administration’s efforts to crack down on student visas, they also must now be hyper aware of their family living spaces potentially becoming hotbeds for COVID-19 cases.
Penn Profs Push To Probe President Trump's Admission To Ivy League - Six professors at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Business School - President Donald Trump’s alma mater - asked for the administration to investigate claims that Trump cheated on his SAT exam. The Daily Pennsylvanian obtained the letter, as well as Penn’s rejection of the professors’ request. All six professors teach in Wharton’s Legal Studies & Business Ethics Department. The letter cites a claim in Too Much and Never Enough — a recently published book written by President Donald Trump’s niece, Mary Trump — that President Trump paid someone to take the SAT on his behalf.“Failing to investigate an allegation of fraud at such a level broadcasts to prospective students and the world at large that the playing field is not equal,” wrote the professors. They cited the university’s policy on revoking degrees, which states that Penn degrees can be revoked due to alleged fraud.However, the authors admit that there is “no conclusive evidence of the allegation made in Mary Trump’s book” and they stated that they recognize the accusations occur in the context of a family feud. Yet, citing a report by the Washington Post, they alleged that “President Trump has provided substantial evidence that he is not above lying and cheating in other contexts.” Although “it is true that the truth of an event that occurred more than fifty years ago may be difficult to establish,” the professors nevertheless called for an investigation.University Provost Wendell Pritchett denied the professors’ request on behalf of Penn President Amy Gutmann.Although the administration shared the professors’ concerns “about these allegations and the integrity of our admissions process,” they “have determined that this situation occurred too far in the past to make a useful or probative factual inquiry possible.”
Elon Musk said a college degree isn't required for a job at Tesla — and Apple, Google, and Netflix don't require employees to have 4-year degrees either - Students assume getting a four-year degree — and taking on the thousands of dollars of student-loan debt that comes along with it — is the only way to get your foot in the door at top companies such as Tesla, Apple, and Netflix. But that isn't always true. Even the CEO of Tesla doesn't think you need it.Tesla CEO Elon Musk said colleges "are not for learning," but rather a place to have fun, during a conversation at the Satellite 2020 conference. Musk said you can learn anything online for free, and noted that billionaire moguls like Bill Gates and Oracle's Larry Ellison dropped out of college. Ideally, he added, you would have dropped out of school "and did something." "I don't consider going to college evidence of exceptional ability," Musk said at the Satellite conference. "Did Shakespeare even go to college? Probably not." Musk joined prominent business leaders who have also questioned the need for four-year degrees, such as Apple CEO Tim Cook and Siemens USA CEO Barbara Humpton. Cook said in 2019 that about half of Apple's US employment last year included people without four-year degrees. Cook reasoned that many colleges do not teach the skills that business leaders need most in their workforce, such as coding. Humpton also dismissed the idea that a four-year degree guarantees career-readiness: "All too often, job requisitions will say they require a four-year degree, when in fact there's nothing about the job that truly requires a four-year degree — it merely helped our hiring managers sort of weed through the crowd and get a smaller qualified candidate group," Humpton said at the White House in 2019. Now, prominent companies such as Google and Apple are hiring employees who have the skills required to get jobs done, with or without a degree. LinkedIn found many of today's hottest companies to work for do not require that employees have a college degree. After further analysis of the data, LinkedIn identified specific positions more likely to be filled by non-college graduates, including electronic technicians, mechanical designers, and marketing representatives. That being said, college degrees seem to pay off. Workers that hold at least a bachelor's degree earned $502 more in median weekly earnings than those with just a high school education, according toa recent report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Additionally, the unemployment rate among those with less than a high school degree is more than double that of bachelors degree holders. But because degrees often require taking on student debt, many Americans cannot afford college degrees. Only 42% of high-school sophomores go on to earn a two-year or four-year degree, per the US Department of Education. Even among students who graduate from college, a significant number of new graduates are underemployed, meaning they work jobs that don't require a college degree.
Lancet Study Finds US Has, By Far, The World’s Most Overpriced Medical Care - The medical journal, The Lancet, is one of the world’s Big Three scientific journals of medicine; along with the Journal of the American Medical Association, and the New England Journal of Medicine. On August 27th The Lancet published “Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories”. Here is the visual that’s in it, which shows the United States as having, by far, the world’s costliest medical care, at around $9,000 per person per year, and yet as having lower quality of health care than virtually all other industrialized nations do: Here is another such study, showing the same thing, and calculating it more simply: What explains this? Quite simply, the United States is the world’s most corrupt nation, and medical care is such an extreme necessity when a citizen needs it, so that they’ll pay whatever the system charges them for it — and investing in healthcare products and services is therefore enormously profitable in the United States. Actually, the only other market-sector that competes with it for providing simultaneously high returns and low risk (the combination that offers the best of both worlds to investors) is consumer staples, such as foods, which likewise are necessities of life. When people are desperate, they’ll pay, whatever the cost, because these are things they don’t just want — they need. Here, from Maksim Papenkov’s award-winning 6 February 2020 paper, “An Empirical Asset Pricing Model Accommodating the Sector-Heterogeneity of Risk”, is his sector-specific calculation of stock-market profitability during 2000-2018, showing that “HC” Health Care, and “CS” Consumer Staples, were the best at combining low risk with high returns, during that 19-year period:
Common drugs tied to increased risk of cognitive decline - A class of drugs used for many conditions, including allergies, colds, high blood pressure and depression, may be associated with an increased risk of developing mild thinking and memory problems, particularly in people who have genetic risk factors for Alzheimer's disease or markers of this condition, according to a study published in the September 2, 2020, online issue of Neurology®, the medical journal of the American Academy of Neurology. These types of drugs, called anticholinergic drugs, are used for motion sickness, urinary incontinence, overactive bladder, Parkinson's disease and high blood pressure. There are approximately 100 such drugs in widespread use, with some requiring a prescription and many others that may be purchased over the counter.The study found that cognitively normal people taking at least one anticholinergic drug were 47% more likely to develop mild cognitive impairment, which can be a precursor to dementia, over the next decade than people who were not taking such drugs."Our findings suggest that reducing the use of anticholinergic drugs before people develop any cognitive problems may be an important way to prevent the negative consequences of these drugs on thinking skills, especially for people who have an elevated risk of developing Alzheimer's disease," said study author Lisa Delano-Wood, Ph.D., of the University of California, San Diego. "Future studies are needed to see if indeed stopping the use of these drugs could lead to a reduction in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease down the road."
US Tax Dollars Funded Every New Drug in the Last Decade - The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed longstanding debates about the role of the public and private sectors in drug discovery and development from questions of optimal policy to questions of life and death. On one hand, it has dramatically demonstrated the public’s dependence on biopharmaceutical companies for the discovery, development, manufacture, and distribution of drugs and vaccines that may quell the pandemic. On the other hand, the billions of dollars of public funding demanded by the private sector to pursue these products vividly illustrates the industry’s reliance on public funding for the development of products that address the public’s most pressing needs. The escalating controversies and divisive commentaries over drug pricing and the prioritization of products that benefit from federal funding also highlight deep divides between the precepts of the public and private sectors concerning the mission of the corporation as well as the role of government in value creation and markets. These conflicts also highlight the lack of coherent policies designed to maximize the public return on taxpayer investments and ensure that the public’s needs are met. With support from the Institute for New Economic Thinking, we have recently completed a Working Paper examining the public sector investments by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) that contributed to the new drugs approved by the FDA in the decade 2010-2019. This work, which builds on an earlier study of drugs approved in the first part of the decade, provides a rich dataset describing the role played by the government in promoting new drug discovery and development.The scope of the public sector’s contribution to drug discovery and development identified in is study is somewhat overwhelming. Our analysis focused on identifying HIN funded research associated with the 356 drugs that were approved from 2010-2019 or their 219 distinct biological targets. We also examined the timelines of clinical development, proxy measures of their innovativeness or importance, and the patents resulting from the NIH-funded research. We identified 2.2 million published research papers related to these drugs or targets, of which 21% acknowledged funding from the NIH totaling 332 thousand fiscal years of research funding amassing more than $230 billion. This research was also cited in 22 thousand issued US patents. What does this research teach us about the role of the public sector’s investment in drug discovery and development? Like the Socratic method, this analysis may be more informative from the questions is poses, rather than the answers it provides. Here are some of the questions.
Honeybee Venom Kills Aggressive Breast Cancer Cells, Study Shows - Could honeybees hold the key to treating an aggressive form of breast cancer?A new study out of Australia found that honeybee venom rapidly killed the cells for triple-negative breast cancer, a type of breast cancer that currently has few treatment options."It provides another wonderful example of where compounds in nature can be used to treat human diseases," said Western Australia Chief Scientist Professor Peter Klinken in a Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research press release.The research, published in Nature Precision Oncology Tuesday, was led by Dr. Ciara Duffy of the Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research and the University of Western Australia. As far back as 1950, bee venom was shown to kill tumors in plants. It has also been shown to work against other cancers like melanoma, BBC News explained. However, Duffy said in the press release that this was the first time honeybee venom had been tested against every type of breast cancer cell, as well as normal breast cells.Duffy and her team tested both the venom itself and a synthetic version of a compound in the venom called melittin. They found that both were effective against triple-negative breast cancer and HER2-enriched breast cancer cells. In fact, a certain concentration of honeybee venom could kill 100 percent of cancer cells without seriously impacting healthy ones."The venom was extremely potent," Duffy said.Duffy explained to Australia's ABC News how the melittin worked."What melittin does is it actually enters the surface, or the plasma membrane, and forms holes or pores and it just causes the cell to die," Duffy said.The researchers also found that the melittin interfered with the cancer cells' messaging system, which is essential for the cancer to reproduce and grow.The fact that melittin makes holes in the cancer cells actually means it could potentially be paired with existing chemotherapies that would enter the cancer cells through the openings it carved and kill them. Duffy found this treatment strategy worked to shrink tumors in mice. However, outside scientists cautioned that there is a big difference between killing cancer in a lab and successfully treating it in humans.
Surgical backlog in Ontario from COVID-19 will take 84 weeks to clear - The estimated time to clear surgeries postponed in Ontario because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is 84 weeks, with a target of 717 surgeries per week, according to a new modelling study in CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Journal)."The magnitude of the surgical backlog from COVID-19 raises important implications for planning for the recovery phase and for possible second waves of the pandemic in Ontario," says Dr. Jonathan Irish, a surgeon at Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network and the University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, with coauthors.In mid-March, the Ontario Ministry of Health directed Ontario hospitals to cancel elective surgeries and other non-emergency-related activities to help prepare for an anticipated surge in patients with COVID-19. On May 26, the directive was lifted, allowing hospitals to begin ramping up elective and time-sensitive surgeries.In April 2020, there were 38% fewer cancer surgeries, 42% fewer cardiac surgeries, 94% fewer pediatric surgeries and 96% fewer miscellaneous adult surgeries compared with the previous April. Between March 15 and June 13, there was a backlog of 148 364 surgeries. It will take 84 weeks - more than 1 ½ years - to complete these surgeries, with an estimated 14 weeks for time-sensitive surgeries (mainly cardiac, vascular and cancer surgeries) if resources are focused specifically on these procedures."This work shows the unprecedented magnitude of the secondary impact of COVID-19 on surgical care in Ontario," the authors write.
Covid Raises Mothers’ Risk of Intensive Care Admission in Study -- Mothers-to-be with Covid-19 may be at increased risk of intensive care admission, breathing problems that require the use of a ventilator and giving birth early, researchers said.Babies born to mothers with the pandemic virus were also at higher risk of needing intensive care, with a quarter admitted to the neonatal unit, according to an analysis that was published in the BMJ medical journal and partly funded by the World Health Organization. However, still birth and newborn death rates were low among these babies, the researchers found.The researchers analyzed 77 studies that included 11,432 hospitalized pregnant and recently pregnant women with suspected or confirmed coronavirus infections. The analysis adjusted for various designs and differing levels of quality in the studies from the U.S., China, Italy, Brazil and other countries, the journal said.About one in 10 pregnant or recently pregnant women who were admitted to a hospital for any reason were diagnosed or suspected to have Covid-19, the researchers found, although rates varied from study to study. These patients were less likely to report symptoms of fever and muscle pain than non-pregnant women with the disease, according to researchers led by Shakila Thangaratinam of the WHO Collaborating Center for Global Women’s Health and the U.K.’s University of Birmingham. Older mothers and those with underlying medical conditions such as diabetes, high blood pressure and being overweight were most likely to have severe cases of Covid-19, they said.
Obese Patients at High Risk of Severe Covid Illness, Study Finds -Obese and overweight people are at high risk of suffering severe cases of Covid-19, according to a French study that sheds light on the pandemic’s burden.The research, presented at a conference this week, shows how carrying extra pounds puts patients at risk of more serious disease and death. Only one in every 10 people who end up in intensive care with Covid-19 were in a range of healthy weight, the study found.Researchers led by Francois Pattou, the head of Lille University Hospital’s general and endocrine surgery department in France, found that about half of the 124 intensive-care patients with Covid-19 in a sample they studied were obese and most of the remaining ones were overweight. By contrast, only a quarter suffered from obesity and another quarter were overweight in a control group of several hundred patients admitted to intensive care for reasons unrelated to the pandemic.People with a body mass index of 30 or morewere considered obese, matching international thresholds from the World Health Organizationand the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.“The increased risk posed by this virus to people living with obesity could not be clearer,” Pattou said. “Our data show that the chances of increasing to more severe disease increases with BMI, to the point where almost all intensive care Covid-19 patients with severe obesity will end up on a ventilator.” As many as 87% of patients who were severely obese required a ventilator to continue breathing, Pattou and colleagues found.
Steroids cut death rates among critically ill COVID-19 patients, major study finds - (Reuters) - Treating critically ill COVID-19 patients with corticosteroid drugs reduces the risk of death by 20%, an analysis of seven international trials found on Wednesday, prompting the World Health Organisation to update its advice on treatment. The analysis - which pooled data from separate trials of low dose hydrocortisone, dexamethasone and methylprednisolone - found that steroids improve survival rates of COVID-19 patients sick enough to be in intensive care in hospital. “This is equivalent to around 68% of (the sickest COVID-19) patients surviving after treatment with corticosteroids, compared to around 60% surviving in the absence of corticosteroids,” the researchers said in a statement. “Steroids are a cheap and readily available medication, and our analysis has confirmed that they are effective in reducing deaths amongst the people most severely affected by COVID-19,” Jonathan Sterne, a professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at Britain’s Bristol University who worked on the analysis, told the briefing. He said the trials - conducted by researchers in Britain, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Spain, and the United States - gave a consistent message throughout, showing the drugs were beneficial in the sickest patients regardless of age or sex or how long patients had been ill. The findings, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, reinforce results that were hailed as a major breakthrough and announced in June, when dexamethasone became the first drug shown to be able to reduce death rates among severely sick COVID-19 patients. Dexamethasone has been in widespread use in intensive care wards treating COVID-19 patients in some countries since then.
Vitamin D deficiency raises COVID-19 infection risk by 77%, study finds. (UPI) -- Vitamin D deficiency increases a person's risk for catching COVID-19 by 77% compared to those with sufficient levels of the nutrient, a study published Thursday by JAMA Network Open found. As many as one in four of the nearly 500 participants in the study were found to have less-than-optimal levels of vitamin D, the data showed. Among those found to be lacking the key nutrient, 22% contracted COVID-19, the data showed. Of the 60% of study subjects with adequate vitamin D levels, just 12% were infected, according to the researchers. "There is prior evidence from multiple sources that vitamin D can enhance both innate and adaptive immunity," Dr. David O. Meltzer, a professor of medicine at the University of Chicago, told UPI. Innate immunity refers to the body's natural immune system response. Adaptive immunity describes how the immune system adjusts to a new pathogen -- like a virus -- that is able to evade its natural response. "Vitamin D also ... may prevent the excess inflammation that is part of the challenge in managing severe COVID-19," Meltzer said. Based on existing research, many physicians recommend that patients take vitamin D supplements if their diet is lacking in the nutrient because it has been shown to play a role in immune health, according to Kathryn A. Boling, a family physician at Mercy Medical Center in Baltimore, who was not part of the JAMA Network Open study. "There are some dietary sources of vitamin D, including fatty fishes such as salmon, eggs, mushrooms and fortified foods, including most milk and dairy products, but it is not easy to get the levels one would get from supplements from these dietary sources alone," Meltzer said.
Teen and children hospitalizations, deaths from coronavirus increasing: report- Coronavirus-related hospitalizations and deaths of children and teens are on the rise, according to data compiled by the American Academy of Pediatrics.Although data indicate younger children are less likely to catch or transmit the virus, the May 21-Aug. 20 dataset shows a similar rise across states. Complicating matters is the fact that states use different grouping strategies, with many putting infants and teens in the same category, The New York Times notes.Sean O’Leary, vice chairman of the American Academy of Pediatrics’s committee on infectious diseases, said that infections among children appear to increase with general community spread. He added that, as with adults, Black and Latino children appear to be at disproportionate risk of hospitalization.“Anyone who has been on the front lines of this pandemic in a children’s hospital can tell you we’ve taken care of lots of kids that are very sick,” O’Leary told the Times. “Yes, it’s less severe in children than adults, but it’s not completely benign.” The share of positive coronavirus cases among children has increased in every state since spring, and nearly doubled from 5 percent in May to over 9 percent Aug. 20, according to the data.President Trump, in pushing for schools to fully reopen, has repeatedly cited a low threat to children from the virus. In early August, he falsely claimed in a “Fox & Friends” interview that children are “almost immune.” Twitter flagged the clip as containing misinformation about the virus when the president’s campaign account shared it. “One of the challenges is that you just can’t separate schools from the community,” William Raszka Jr., a pediatric infectious disease expert at the University of Vermont in Burlington, told the Times. “When there’s a really high prevalence rate in the community and you open schools, there’s going to be a lot of transmission in schools.”
COVID-19 Can Wreck Your Heart, Even if You Haven’t Had Any Symptoms - Beyond its scientific backing, the notion that a COVID-19 patient might wind up with long-term lung scarring or breathing issues has the ring of truth. After all, we hear the stories, right? The virus can leave survivors explaining how they struggled to breathe, or how it can feel, in the words of actress Alyssa Milano, “like an elephant is sitting on my chest.”We’ve also known for a while that some COVID-19 patients’ hearts are taking a beating, too—but over the past few weeks, the evidence has strengthened that cardiac damage can happen even among people who have never displayed symptoms of coronavirus infection. And these frightening findings help explain why college and professional sports leagues are proceeding with special caution as they make decisions about whether or not to play. From an offensive lineman at Indiana University dealing with possible heart issues to a University of Houston player opting out of the season because of “complications with my heart,” the news has been coming fast and furiously. More than a dozen athletes at Power Five conference schools have been identified as having myocardial injury following coronavirus infection, according to ESPN; two of the conferences—the Big Ten and the Pac-12—already have announced they are postponing all competitive sports until 2021. And in Major League Baseball, Boston Red Sox ace pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez told reporters that he felt “100 years old” as a result of his bout with COVID, and of MLB’s shortened season because of myocarditis—an inflammation of the heart muscle, often triggered by a virus. Why are these athletes (and their leagues and conferences) taking such extreme precautions? It’s because of the stakes. Though it often resolves without incident, myocarditis can lead to severe complications such as abnormal heart rhythms, chronic heart failure and even sudden death. Just a few weeks ago, a former Florida State basketball player, Michael Ojo, died of suspected heart complications just after recovering from a bout of COVID-19 in Serbia, where he was playing pro ball. Here’s the background: Myocarditis appears to result from the direct infection of the virus attacking the heart, or possibly as a consequence of the inflammation triggered by the body’s overly aggressive immune response. And it is not age-specific: In The Lancet, doctors recently reported on an 11-year-old child with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C)—a rare illness—who died of myocarditis and heart failure. At autopsy, pathologists were able to identify coronavirus particles present in the child’s cardiac tissue, helping to explain the virus’ direct involvement in her death. In fact, researchers are reportingthe presence of viral protein in the actual heart muscle, of six deceased patients. Of note is the fact that these patients were documented to have died of lung failure, having had neither clinical signs of heart involvement, nor a prior history of cardiac disease.
Severe Covid-19 despite or even due to the strong immunity -- The team from Marien Hospital and the department of Virology of Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB) as well as the Clinic for Infectious Diseases, the Clinic of Anesthesiology and the Institute for Virology of University Medicine Essen studied specific antibodies and T cells occurring in recovered, seriously ill and deceased Covid-19 patients. The researchers identified comparable immune reactions in clinical follow up. They report their findings in the journal Cell Reports Medicine from 29 August 2020.During the last weeks, some studies have been published on the analysis of these cell-killing Sars-Cov-2 specific T cells in patients with Covid-19. The studies demonstrated detection of such cells in patients recovered from Covid-19 suggesting their protective antiviral effect. On the other hand, some studies indicate that an excessive immune response might be the cause of severe Covid-19. The role of Sars-Cov-2 specific T-cells in this exaggerated immune response is unclear. Critically ill patients have the same or stronger immunity as recovered patients. In the current study, the research team analysed immune responses in Covid-19 patients during the disease progress. "This is how we wanted to investigate the role of T cells and antibodies in controlling the infection and the disease," explains Nina Babel, who headed the study. "The novel aspect of our study is that we analysed Sars-Cov-2 specific T-cells and antibodies in relation to disease progression and viral clearance. We found that a strong T-cell and antibody response could be detected not only in patients with mild Covid-19 patients who had recovered from the virus infection." Similar or even stronger immunity to Sars-Cov-2 was found in patients who had been critically ill and who suffered Covid-19-related lung failure.
Covid-19 research shows downsides of face shields and valve masks -Face shields and masks with exhalation valves have become a popular alternative for people looking for protection against Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, but American research has cast doubt on their effectiveness.Researchers from Florida Atlantic University examined the performance of face shields and exhalation valves in impeding the spread of aerosol-sized droplets – one of the main forms of Covid-19 transmission – with disturbing results.Whileclear plastic face shieldsblocked the initial forward motion of the jet of droplets, once expelled they were able to move around the visor relatively easily and spread out over a large area, according to the study published on September 1 in peer-reviewed scientific journal Physics of Fluids. Visualisations for a mask equipped with an exhalation port indicated a large number of droplets passed through the valve unfiltered. Scientists said they did the research to help the public understand the effectiveness of face shields and masks equipped with exhalation valves, increasingly popularsubstitutes for regular cloth or surgical masksbecause people find them more comfortable.Face shields reduce humidity and fogging when worn with glasses and are easier to breathe in. They also protect the eyes from splashes and sprays of infected droplets, are easily cleaned and disinfected, and allow visual communication for the hearing-impaired.Unfortunately, smaller aerosolised droplets can penetrate under the bottom of the shield and from the sides of the visor. The researchers found that, over an exposure lasting between one minute and half an hour, the shield was only 23 per cent effective in reducing the inhalation of droplets.
Can we test our way out of COVID-19? - Last week the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) came under attack again for its new guidelines suggesting that brief exposure to a person with COVID-19 didn't automatically mean that an asymptomatic person needed to be tested. But Dr. Robert Redfield, CDC director, explained to me in an interview on SiriusXM's "Doctor Radio" that he was all for testing asymptomatic contacts provided that "testing should be actionable from a public health point of view." In other words, the medical personnel necessary to perform the contact tracing are essential to the process. Last week a patient came to my office and told me that his building superintendent had been working in his apartment for several hours and later tested positive for COVID-19. My patient was asymptomatic, but I sent him for a test as a precaution. It was negative. Dr. Redfield told me that he agreed with having this patient tested, isolated, and all his contacts traced, if positive. But even with close to 80 million COVID-19 diagnostic tests performed in the U.S. since the start of the pandemic, there still is frequently a several-day delay between testing and results, which makes contact tracing very difficult. The gold standard is still the polymerase chain reaction test developed in the 1990s, which looks for the specific genetic material (nucleotide) unique for this coronavirus. Yet, now, several faster, cheaper antigen (protein specific to the virus) tests are in the works; an accurate saliva test was recently released and approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and a breathalyzer-type test also is in the works. Binax Now, made by Abbott Labs, received an emergency use authorization by the FDA. "I think it's a game-changer," Dr. Redfield told me on "Doctor Radio." I think he's right. For one thing, the FDA is reporting a 96 percent to 97 percent accuracy rate based on clinical trials. For another, its cost is only $5 per test and results are available in as little as 15 minutes — a true point-of-care test. Thirdly, the test utilizes a so-called lateral flow technique, which doesn't rely on elaborate, large lab equipment to analyze the results. So it may be portable and usable in doctor's offices, ambulances, schools, universities, sports events and, yes, even at protests or riots. Abbott or a similar product — perhaps combined with a breathalyzer or saliva test — may bring us all to the point of self-testing soon, by which you can determine your results and beam it out to those you want or need to see it via your smartphone. But, in the meantime, it already is a significant breakthrough in screening for coronavirus. Our nurses or technicians will be able to test large populations who are at some risk of having COVID-19, determining not just who has the virus but also an accurate view of the virus's prevalence throughout a community.
Fauci Says COVID Vaccine Trials Could End Early If Results Are Overwhelming --A COVID-19 vaccine could be available earlier than expected if ongoing clinical trials produce overwhelmingly positive results, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease official, in an interview Tuesday with KHN.Although two ongoing clinical trials of 30,000 volunteers are expected to conclude by the end of the year, Fauci said an independent board has the authority to end the trials weeks early if interim results are overwhelmingly positive or negative.The Data and Safety Monitoring Board could say, “‘The data is so good right now that you can say it’s safe and effective,’” Fauci said. In that case, researchers would have “a moral obligation” to end the trial early and make the active vaccine available to everyone in the study, including those who had been given placebos — and accelerate the process to give the vaccine to millions.Fauci’s comments come at a time of growing concern about whether political pressure from the Trump administration could influence federal regulators and scientists overseeing the nation’s response to the novel coronavirus pandemic, and erode shaky public confidence in vaccines. Prominent vaccine experts have said they fear Trump is pushing for an early vaccine approval to help win reelection.Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he trusts the independent members of the DSMB — who are not government employees — to hold vaccines to high standards without being politically influenced. Members of the board are typically experts in vaccine science and biostatistics who teach at major medical schools. “If you are making a decision about the vaccine, you’d better be sure you have very good evidence that it is both safe and effective,” Fauci said. “I’m not concerned about political pressure.”
CDC tells states: Be ready to distribute vaccines on Nov. 1 (AP) — The federal government has told states to prepare for a coronavirus vaccine to be ready to distribute by Nov. 1. The timeline raised concern among public health experts about an “October surprise” — a vaccine approval driven by political considerations ahead of a presidential election, rather than science. In a letter to governors dated Aug. 27, Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said states “in the near future” will receive permit applications from McKesson Corp., which has contracted with CDC to distribute vaccines to places including state and local health departments and hospitals. “CDC urgently requests your assistance in expediting applications for these distribution facilities and, if necessary, asks that you consider waiving requirements that would prevent these facilities from becoming fully operational by November 1, 2020,” Redfield wrote. He wrote that any waivers will not compromise the safety or effectiveness of the vaccine. The Associated Press obtained the letter, which was first reported by McClatchy. The CDC also sent three planning documents to some health departments that included possible timelines for when vaccines would be available. The documents are to be used to develop plans for early vaccination when the supply might be constrained, according to one of the documents, which outlined a scenario in which a vaccine could be available as soon as the end of October. “The COVID-19 vaccine landscape is evolving and uncertain, and these scenarios may evolve as more information is available,” the document reads. Another of the documents says that limited COVID-19 vaccine doses may be available by early November and that supply will increase substantially in 2021. It also states that initially available vaccines will either be approved by the Food and Drug Administration or authorized by the agency under its emergency powers.
US refuses to join international effort to develop Covid-19 vaccine -The US government has said that it will not participate in a global initiative to develop, manufacture and equitably distribute a vaccine for Covid-19 because the effort is co-led by the World Health Organization.The Covid-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility (Covax) is a plan developed by the WHO, along with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and is meant to accelerate the development and testing of a vaccine and work toward distributing it equally. The WHO announced last month that more than 170 countries were in talks to participate in Covax.In a move decried by health experts, the Trump administration announced in May it was withdrawing from the WHO and cutting its funding to the organization. The US was the biggest funder of the organization, contributing $450m in membership dues and contributions to specific programs. Donald Trump alleged that the global health organization was controlled by Chinese influences. Health experts say the US refusal to participate in Covax means that it is betting on the efficacy of its own vaccine development and encouraging other countries to do the same, which could potentially lead to hoarding of the vaccine and higher prices for doses.Suerie Moon, co-director of the Global Health Center at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, told the Washington Post that the US not participating in the initiative was a “real blow” to the global effort to secure a vaccine. “The behavior of countries when it comes to vaccines in this pandemic will have political repercussions beyond public health,” she added. “It’s about, are you a reliable partner or, at the end of the day, are you going to keep all your toys for yourself?” “No one is safe until everyone is safe. No one country has access to research and development, manufacturing and all the supply chain for all essential medicines and materials,” said the WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in August. “We need to prevent vaccine nationalism.”
Does convalescent plasma help treat Covid-19? The NIH says we don’t yet know. -The National Institutes of Health on Tuesday put out a blunt statement on the use of convalescent plasma to treat Covid-19, calling the evidence for its effectiveness “insufficient.”“There are currently no data from well-controlled, adequately powered randomized clinical trials that demonstrate the efficacy and safety of convalescent plasma for the treatment of Covid-19,” according an NIH treatment guidelines panel that reviewed the evidence. “There are insufficient data to recommend either for or against the use of convalescent plasma for the treatment of COVID-19.”The statement was clearly aimed at the Food and Drug Administration, which granted a controversial Emergency Use Authorization, or EUA, for convalescent plasma on August 23.Some researchers saw the approval as a politically motivated decision, given the weak evidence for its effectiveness coupled with President Trump’s public attacks on the FDA. (Trump had alleged without evidence that the agency was slow-walking approvals of Covid-19 treatments to hurt his election prospects.)The EUA announcement drew criticism almost immediately. Scientists noted that administration officials overstated the evidence showing that convalescent plasma was a viable treatment for Covid-19 during a White House press conference.“The evidence [the FDA is] drawing on is not ready for primetime,” Jeremy Faust, an attending physician in the Brigham and Women’s Hospital and an instructor at Harvard Medical School, told Vox.The EUA for convalescent plasma came after many experts, including Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, had warned the agency there wasn’t enough evidence to fast-track authorization for the novel treatment.However, FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn said in an August 23 statement that he was “encouraged by the early promising data that we’ve seen about convalescent plasma,” adding that “plasma from patients who’ve recovered from Covid-19 has the potential to help treat those who are suffering from the effects of getting this terrible virus.” President Trump, meanwhile, described the treatment as a “breakthrough.”
COVID: Where Science Goes To Die - Yves here. I wish this video on how scientists have been flogging their own crap Covid-19 research via preprints and how that’s done considerable damage had a transcript, but it is short enough that hopefully you won’t find it burdensome to listen to it. It’s an addendum of sorts to Lambert’s post earlier in the week, Don’t “Trust the Science,” Trust Science While You Hone Your Critical Thinking Skills. If you go to the YouTube page for this video, you find it has a “Reference/Reading” list that ties into the key claims of the Medlife Crisis video. The video makes some important points, such as shredding preprints (“80% of studies published are complete garbage”), spending some time on the sad decline of Stanford’s Dr. John Ioannidis (“Covid-19 is no more dangerous than the flu”) as well as describing how a study that claimed that a substantial majority of Covid victims showed heart damage on MRIs was highly suspect. But readers will no doubt take issue with the forceful attack on hydroxychloroquinine, when virtually all studies focused on using it as a treatment, when the recommended use case was as a prophylactic. Again, the plural of anecdote is not data, but there is much more receptivity to hydroxycholorquinine in the Global South. From a June InterPress news story discussing why Covid-19 infection and death rates had been so low in Africa. One factor is a relatively young population. Another is generally good official responses. A third is widespread BCG vaccinations. But a fourth seems to be anti-malarial use: In Senegal and Madagascar for example, COVID-19 patients on hydroxychloroquine and the herbal remedy Artemisia annua have been observed to recover faster from the disease with lower deaths. In both countries, even with rising cases, recovery rates from Covid19 are much higher – consistent with the observations in most malaria prone countries. Interestingly, malaria is not prevalent in Africa’s Covid-19 hotspots of South Africa and North Africa. Regardless, please watch this short video and have fun with it. Even if you disagree with all of its examples, it does illustrate the ongoing corruption of what passes for science.
6 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week - Six states set new highs last week for coronavirus infections recorded in a single day, according to the COVID Tracking Project and state health departments. Iowa surpassed its record set the previous week. Dramatic single-day increases have become less frequent after five weeks of continuously declining infections nationwide.Records broken:
- Aug. 23: Kentucky (1,264)
- Aug. 24: Indiana (1,660) and Kansas (1,545)
- Aug. 27: Iowa (1,551) and Minnesota (1,154)
- Aug. 28: Virginia (2,134)
Minnesota reported more than 1,000 cases in a single day for the first time last week. Hospitalizations and deaths in the state weredown, however. In Iowa, hospitalizations and deaths are still rising. The board of supervisors in Polk County, which has reported the most COVID-19 cases in the state, reportedly accused the governor of preventing them from enacting a local mask mandate.:New coronavirus cases fell by nearly 15% last week, continuing a steady downward trend. Decreased testing likely accounts for some of the drop in recorded coronavirus cases, per the COVID-19 Tracking Project. Many Americans still don't have coronavirus testing access.
Dozens of inmates at West Virginia prison test positive for coronavirus - Nearly 150 inmates at a correctional facility in West Virginia have tested positive for COVID-19 as prison officials across the country continue to struggle with outbreaks. Data released by the state's Department of Health and Human Services on Sunday revealed that 138 positive cases have been confirmed at the Mount Olive Correctional Complex, where just over 2,100 inmates are housed. Close to 200 inmates were still waiting for test results as of Sunday. Correctional facilities around the country have reported outbreaks of the coronavirus, which can spread quickly in cramped conditions such as prisons. In Texas, the Federal Correctional Institute in Seagoville reported more than 1,300 confirmed cases of the virus over the past several months, but it has since seen those numbers drop dramatically. Thousands of inmates and prison staff members have tested positive for the virus nationwide, which has infected about 6 million Americans since the pandemic began. Just over 180,000 Americans have died from the disease. Many activists have called for some inmates to be temporarily released amid the COVID-19 pandemic due to health concerns in prison facilities. Some states, including California, have responded by releasing thousands of inmates serving time for nonviolent offenses. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) said in March that officials should "increase the use of compassionate release" to limit overcrowding in prisons and work to ensure that those who remain incarcerated are protected by adequate safety measures. “The same social distancing principles guiding public and private sector responses should guide the BOP’s response and ensure that its facilities do not unnecessarily bring people into confined spaces that may lead to greater exposure to coronavirus,” read a letter from the ACLU to Attorney General William Barr. “Deliberate action must be taken to meet the responsibility to ensure the health of those incarcerated in the federal system."
August 31 COVID-19 Test Results - The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day (fewer recently). Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 680,405 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 31,406 positive tests.See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 4.6% (red line).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.The dashed line is the June low.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph).By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5% (lower than today). If people stay vigilant, the number of cases might drop to the June low by the end of September (that would still be a large number of new cases, but progress).
U.S. Cases Rise 0.7%; Plasma Treatment in Dispute: Virus Update - Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations continued to ease in U.S. hot spots such as California and Texas, while warnings grew of new outbreaks across America’s Midwest. A U.S. panel of experts undercut an emergency authorization on plasma treatment issued just days ago by the Food and Drug Administration, saying there’s not enough evidence to recommend the therapy for hospitalized coronavirus patients.Russia became the fourth nation to pass 1 million confirmed coronavirus cases, on the day schools across the country reopened for the new academic year. Brazil, home of the world’s second-largest outbreak, reported its worst economic contraction on record. Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Cases surpass 25.5 million; deaths exceed 852,000
- Vaccine front-runner held back by China’s spat with Canada
- U.S. supply shortages plague non-Covid testing too
- China in uneven recovery as shoppers splurge, restaurants suffer
- NYC school reopening delayed to Sept. 21 in union deal
- Vaccine Tracker: Where we are in the race for protection?
Maryland, Texas Move To Reopen Businesses As Midwestern COVID-19 Hotspots Flare: Live Updates - Just hours after Texas Gov Abbott made a similar announcement, Maryland's moderate Trump-wary Republican Gov. Larry Hogan has just announced that businesses in the state will be able to reopen beginning Friday at 5 pm as it moves into Stage III of its reopening plan. Here's more from local TV station ABC 2: Based on improving health metrics, Maryland is taking its initial steps into Stage Three of COVID-19 recovery.Beginning Friday at 5pm, indoor theaters where live performances occur or motion pictures are shown may open to the general public at 50% capacity, or 100 people per auditorium, whichever is less.Outdoor venues where live performances occur or motion pictures are shown outdoors may open to the general public at 50% capacity, or 250 people.Capacity for retail establishments and religious facilities may increase from 50 to 75%.As Labor Day weekend nears, Gov. Hogan reminded Marylanders that based on contact tracing data, family gatherings are the most common thread among recent positive COVID-19 cases.Gov. Hogan also announced that, in collaboration with Apple and Google, Maryland will be one of the first states to deploy a new exposure notification tool to help slow the spread of COVID-19.Exposure Notifications Express is designed to help public health officials more quickly and easily provide notifications for their residents about potential COVID-19 exposure and guide them on recommended actions.Meanwhile, cases continued to climb in the four new problem states identified by Bank of America analysts earlier. In South Dakota, current hospitalizations from COVID-19 in South Dakota increased by two, and active cases increased for the 14th-straight day.The state reported 240 new cases, bringing its total positive case count to 13,749, up from Monday (13,509). Total recoveries are now at 10,832, up from Monday (10,612).US cases increased by 0.7% on Tuesday according to an early count from JHU & Bloomberg. That's on par with the 7-day average.After progressives whined endless about a coming 'eviction crisis', the Trump administration said it would use its quarantine authority to keep renters in their homes during the coronavirus pandemic as a way to prevent a full-on eviction crisis that could jeopardize Trump's reelection chances just as Marko Kolanovic is seeing evidence of Trump's odds of victory soaring.
Weeks after Sturgis motorcycle rally, first COVID-19 death reported as cases accelerate in Midwest - A Minnesota man who rumbled into South Dakota last month with thousands of other bikers for the annual Sturgis motorcycle rally was reported dead Wednesday of COVID-19. The man, in his 60s with underlying conditions, was hospitalized and in the intensive care unit after returning from Sturgis, the Minnesota Department of Health confirmed in an email to NBC News. The death, initially reported by The Washington Post, is the first traced to the 10-day event that attracted more than 400,000 people and has revved up the coronavirus crisis across the region. Some 260 cases across 11 states had already been recorded before the first death linked to the Sturgis bash, a sometimes raucous event that ran from Aug. 7 through 16 during which the bars were packed and where there was barely any attempt made at social distancing, let alone wearing masks. Since then, the number of coronavirus cases have doubled in South Dakota and there has been an uptick in new cases being reported in neighboring North Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska as well, the latest NBC News Digital figures show.
September 3 COVID-19 Test Results -The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day (fewer recently). Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 723,524 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 44,294 positive tests.See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 6.1% (red line).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.The dashed line is the June low. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5% (lower than today). If people stay vigilant, the number of cases might drop to the June low by the end of September (that would still be a large number of new cases, but progress).
Illinois reports 5,368 new COVID-19 cases after processing backlog tests - — The State of Illinois reported 5,368 new cases of COVID-19 after processing backlog tests.Earlier this week, a slowdown in data processing within Illinois Department of Public Health systems affected the reporting of tests due to the large volume of testing occurring in Illinois, the state said.According to the health department, all available resources were deployed to improve the data systems, which are now fixed, and the backlog created by the slowdown has been cleared. The state also reported 29 additional confirmed deaths in the following counties:
- Bond County: 1 male 70s
- Cook County: 1 male 40s, 2 males 50s, 2 females 70s, 1 male 80s
- Cumberland County: 1 female 90s
- Edgar County: 1 female 90s
- Henry County: 1 male 90s
- Kankakee County: 1 male 90s
- Lake County: 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s
- LaSalle County: 1 female 80s
- Macoupin County: 1 male 70s
- Madison County: 2 male 70s
- McHenry County: 1 male 80s
- McLean County: 1 male 90s
- Moultrie County: 1 female 90s
- Perry County: 1 male 60s
- Richland County: 1 female 90s
- Rock Island County: 1 female 60s, 1 female 90s
- Stark County: 1 male 80s
- Tazewell County: 1 female 80s
- Will County: 1 female 70s
- Williamson County: 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 245,371 cases, including 8,143 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from Aug. 28 – Sept. 3 is 4.1%. As of Thursday, 1,621 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 360 patients were in the ICU and 155 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
U.S. Coronavirus Cases Rise as Labor Day Weekend Kicks Off – WSJ - Americans marked the beginning of the Labor Day weekend on Saturday while contending with a pandemic whose case numbers continue to climb and whose spread has prompted the cancellation of many traditional holiday events. The U.S. reported more than 50,000 new coronavirus cases as the three-day weekend got under way, the biggest rise since mid-August, with some governors warning about the potential for the virus to spread during large holiday gatherings. New cases in the U.S. rose by 50,502 on Friday and the reported death toll topped 188,000 as of Saturday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The total number of confirmed cases surpassed 6.2 million. The seven-day average of new daily cases across the U.S. was 40,940 for Sept. 4, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins data. While the number is the country’s lowest one-week average since June 29, that is much higher than in parts of May and June when it was in the low 20,000s. The potential for a sustained large number of daily cases has raised concerns among some health officials. “We should be dealing with this with a much greater sense of urgency than we are,” said Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Governors in some states warned people to take precautions over the long weekend. “As Labor Day weekend approaches, remember COVID won’t take a holiday,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo wrote in a tweet. “Wear a mask. Be smart. Plan well.”
Fauci warns that Illinois and six other states are at higher risk for a COVID-19 surge over Labor Day weekend, report says - The nation’s top infectious disease expert warned that Illinois and a half-dozen other states with increasing COVID-19 numbers are at risk for a surge in cases over Labor Day weekend, according to Bloomberg. “There are several states that are at risk for surging, namely North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Illinois,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an interview this week, Bloomberg reported. “Those states are starting to see an increase in the percent positive of their testing; that is generally predictive that there’s going to be a problem.” Illinois on Friday reported more than 5,368 new cases — an atypically high number, which state officials said was due to a slowdown in data processing attributed to a large number of tests conducted recently. The state also reported 29 new COVID-19 deaths on Friday.The Illinois Department of Public Health on Friday said 29 counties were at warning level for coronavirus, including Will and Lake counties. A county enters warning level for the virus when two or more risk indicators are present; those metrics include death numbers, weekly test positivity rates, weekly hospital admissions, intensive care unit availability, weekly emergency department visits and the number of new cases per 100,000 people.
WHO's Tedros Warns "No Country Can Just Pretend The Pandemic Is Over" As Trump Embraces 'Herd Immunity' - WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Monday said during the organization's latest Tuesday virtual news conference from its Geneva headquarters that "no country can just pretend the pandemic is over" as governments around the world ease social distancing restrictions and start to send children back to the classroom. It's just the latest example of Dr. Tedros implicitly criticizing President Trump and his handling of the US outbreak, after Trump recently insisted that the virus is "under control" despite flare-ups in Sun Belt states. "The more control countries have over the virus, the more they can open up. Opening up without having control is a recipe for disaster. It's not one size fits all, it's not all or nothing," Tedros said. Dr. Tedros described "four essential things that all countries, communities, and individuals must focus on to take control" of the virus before they start to unwind their emergency measures.
- First, prevent amplifying events. COVID-19 spreads very efficiently among clusters of people.
- Second, reduce deaths by protecting vulnerable groups, including older people, those with underlying conditions, and essential workers.
- Third, individuals must play their part by taking the measures we know work to protect themselves and others – stay at least one meter away from others, clean your hands regularly, practice respiratory etiquette, and wear a mask.
- And fourth, governments must take tailored actions to find, isolate, test, and care for cases, and trace and quarantine contacts. Widespread stay-at-home orders can be avoided if countries take temporary and geographically-targeted interventions.
China Mulls Joining WHO Vaccine Program Abandoned By US; Midwestern Outbreaks Intensify- Live Updates - At least twice over the past week, we have warned about the startling acceleration in new cases from four (GOP-controlled) states: Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota and Alabama. As the number of new cases continues to decline across the Sun Belt (although, as Bloomberg reminded us Wednesday, a new outbreak is emerging in California's central valley now that SoCal's outbreak has quieted down), Wall Street and some of America's top public health officials - including CDC chief Dr. Robert Redfield - have been heralding this declining trend in cases and hospitalizations as a sign that the US might finally be moving past the outbreak.Decisions by governors in Texas and Maryland to move into the next phase of reopening, allowing more businesses to re-open, suggest a high degree of official confidence in the declining trend, even as experts like Dr. Fauci seize every opportunity to warn about the risks of another wave emerging in the fall, as falling temperatures force more Americans inside.This chart, shared by a team of Bank of America analysts, sums up the situation in the Midwest. Outside of the US, the most important trend internationally is what's happening with India. As officials move to test practically the entire population of India's biggest cities, which have also emerged as the country's most virulent hotspots, the country has persistently reported just under 80k new cases per day. India has broken the record for most cases reported in a single day for any country on earth at least twice over the past week.As the world's second-most-populous country moves ahead with reopening its schools and economy, experts warn that India will soon likely surpass both the US and Brazil as the world's worst-hit hotspot.India registered 78,357 new coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours, pushing its total north of 3.7 million as the government eases pandemic restrictions nationwide to help revive its battered economy.In other major news on Wednesday, China has reportedly hinted that it might move to pick up some of the slack left by the US in a WHO-led global vaccine program that the White House recently withdrew from. As the US leaves behind the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility - or COVAX, a global effort to develop and distribute a vaccine being led by the WHO - China looks to be using the program as the vessel for it to keep its promise to supply the developing world with badly needed vaccines.Per Bloomberg, China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said that "China’s purpose is highly consistent with Covax’s aim" and that Beijing is in close contact with the people in charge of COVAX. Showering Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and other poorer countries with billions of doses of various vaccines would be a major coup in China's struggle to outflank the US in terms of geopolitical influence.The latest numbers from Johns Hopkins University show more than 25.7 million people have been diagnosed worldwide, while 857,015 have died. More than 17 million people have recovered.
Russia's COVID-19 vaccine showed antibody response in initial trials - (Reuters) - Russia’s “Sputnik-V” COVID-19 vaccine produced an antibody response in all participants in early-stage trials, according to results published on Friday by The Lancet medical journal that were hailed by Moscow as an answer to its critics. The results of the two trials, conducted in June-July this year and involving 76 participants, showed 100% of participants developing antibodies to the new coronavirus and no serious side effects, The Lancet said. Russia licensed the two-shot jab for domestic use in August, the first country to do so and before any data had been published or a large-scale trial begun. “The two 42-day trials – including 38 healthy adults each – did not find any serious adverse effects among participants, and confirmed that the vaccine candidates elicit an antibody response,” The Lancet said. “Large, long-term trials including a placebo comparison, and further monitoring are needed to establish the long-term safety and effectiveness of the vaccine for preventing COVID-19 infection,” it said. The vaccine is named Sputnik-V in homage to the world’s first satellite, launched by the Soviet Union. Some Western experts have warned against its use until all internationally approved testing and regulatory steps have been taken. But with the results now published for the first time in an international peer-reviewed journal, and with a 40,000-strong later-stage trial launched last week, a senior Russian official said Moscow had faced down its critics abroad.
Coronavirus cases top 25 million worldwide -Eight months have passed since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, and more than 25.5 million people worldwide have been infected with the novel virus SARS-CoV-2. There are now nearly 6.9 million people with confirmed active cases globally. Each of them will join either the 18.6 million who have recovered or the 854,000 who have died from the virus. The United States remains the worst hit by the pandemic, with 6.2 million known cases and 187,000 deaths. The latest estimate from the Institute of Health Metrics at the University of Washington—the model largely used by the White House—predicts that 317,000 will die by December 1, assuming the rate of the pandemic’s spread remains about what it is now. If restrictions ease—if, for example, schools and workplaces continue to reopen and provide more opportunities for the deadly contagion to spread—the death toll is projected to jump to 363,000 as the winter holidays begin.Such data support the statement issued at yesterday’s World Health Organization (WHO) press briefing by Director-General Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus Adhanom, who warned, “The reality is that this coronavirus spreads easily, it can be fatal to people of all ages, and most people remain susceptible.” He added, “Opening up without having control is a recipe for disaster.”Such a disaster, however, is exactly what is being carried out by the Trump administration, according to a new report from the Washington Post. Instead of pushing for more testing and contact tracing to contain the virus, Trump’s new medical adviser, Scott Atlas, is pushing for a “herd immunity” policy, allowing the virus to spread through most of the population to build up resistance to the disease. According to the Post, “the threshold for herd immunity may require 2.13 million deaths.” Atlas was selected by Trump after months of open conflict with Anthony Fauci, who recently warned that to achieve herd immunity “the death toll would be enormous.” Atlas comes from the right-wing Stanford Hoover Institution and has been on Fox News regularly, openly supporting Trump’s policies on masks and on reopening the economy and schools. Right-wing talk show host Rush Limbaugh was most explicit, declaring, “Scott Atlas is now part of the coronavirus task force meeting with the President. And he is countering Fauci.” The White House was forced to respond after the Post’s story broke, issuing a statement in Atlas’s name that stated, “There is no policy of the President or this administration of achieving herd immunity. There never has been any such policy recommended to the President or to anyone else from me.”Such statements are belied by the actual actions of the Trump administration, which since late July has been reducing testing nationally.
World's largest single-day jump in coronavirus cases recorded in India -India recorded its highest single-day total of new coronavirus cases Sunday with 78,761 new cases. The new total gives the country more than 3.5 million new cases. The nation, which has reported more than 75,000 new infectious four days in a row, has the fastest-growing daily caseload of any country, according to The Associated Press. The country has dramatically increased testing, conducting nearly 1 million per day. A few months ago, it was conducting only 200,000 per day, according to the AP. The country also reports a recovery rate of nearly 77 percent.India has credited a policy of “testing aggressively, tracking comprehensively and treating efficiently” in hospitals and monitored quarantines. However, the nation has reported approximately 1,000 deaths from the virus per day with more than 63,000 deaths thus far. The country is nearing the third-highest death toll worldwide, after the U.S. and Brazil. In the meantime, however, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pushed for normal life to resume in the nation. India’s federal government announced the New Delhi subway will begin the reopening process Sept. 7, although schools, universities and movie theaters will remain closed until the end of the month, according to the AP. Eight of India’s states have been particularly hard-hit by the pandemic, comprising nearly 73 percent of all infections. The newest surge has been predominantly driven by the state of Maharashtra, the western state where Mumbai is located. More than 24,000 deaths and about one in five of all cases originated in the state, according to the AP.
Coronavirus Cases Top 25 Million Globally As India Emerges As A New Epicenter - The number of cases of the coronavirus has now passed 25 million worldwide.The milestone happened Sunday, fueled by a surge of more than 78,000 cases in India on Saturday. The spread of the virus in India has grown in recent weeks, with daily cases there now outpacing both the United States and Brazil, according to tracking data from Johns Hopkins University.In all, India has now registered more than 3.5 million cases and more than 63,000 deaths. Global deaths now total more than 843,000 Despite the growing caseload in India, the United States continues to lead the world in both cases (more than 5.9 million) and deaths (nearly 183,000).On Saturday, the U.S. reported 47,153 new cases — making it the sixth day in a row the country has seen an increase in cases, according to The Wall Street Journal.India went into a total lockdown in March when Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered all 1.3 billion of the country's people to remain inside their homes for three weeks. At the time, the country had barely recorded 500 cases of the virus and 10 deaths.That lockdown was then extended. When it was over, the outbreak was considered relatively under control. But the damage to the economy was devastating for many and ultimately led to an easing of restrictions. Since then, the virus has surged, and despite the increase, the government continues to take steps to return to normal — including the reopening of underground trains and plans for limited sporting and religious events next month, according to Reuters.India is not the only country seeing an increase in cases since lifting lockdown restrictions. France is also experiencing a sharp increase in cases since it began coming out of lockdown in mid-May. Since July, cases have been on the rise, and some restrictions are being implemented again. In Paris, face coverings are once again mandated in all public places. Masks are also required throughout the country on public transportation and in stores, and starting Sept. 1, all employees in workplaces will have to wear them. South Korea is also trying to tackle a rise in cases after winning early plaudits for controlling the virus. NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports that the uptick in cases there is partially the result of an exhausted populace, distrust of the government and a faltering economy. Officials are working once again to flatten the curve, but progress is expected to be slow.
Thailand Covid-19 vaccine proved successful in trials on monkeys -- Dr. Thiravat Hemachudha, Head of the Thai Red Cross Emerging Infectious Disease Health Science Centre, announced last Saturday, August 29, that Thailand’s developed Covid-19 vaccine has initially proved successful in trials on monkeys.According to the doctor, the latest vaccine, produced by a Thailand based startup company called Baiya Phytopharm, was developed from proteins of a special type of tobacco leaves. It had been previously tested on mice and monkeys, resulting in high antibodies enough to prevent the virus without any side effects. Dr. Thiravat stated online: “Mice and monkeys were given the vaccine twice in three weeks apart. The results showed that the monkeys remain healthy with no side effects. Their blood results showed normal liver enzyme levels and normal red and white blood cells. The monkeys were also proved to have high protection against the virus and a neutralizing antibody that can inhibit the virus.”
Japan Plans To Provide COVID-19 Vaccine To All Citizens For Free - Outgoing Japanese PM Shinzo Abe has made many of the same mistakes during the battle against COVID-19 as President Trump: After botching the handling of the "Diamond Princess" by allowing quarantines to be violated and the infection to spread, the Japanese government never followed up with stringent restrictions. Japan's constitution forbids the type of lockdowns seen in Europe, China and the US. The state of emergency adopted by the government wasn't nearly as robust a measure as what other countries tried. And yet, Japan has a relatively low rate of infection. None of this really makes sense, considering that Japan's aged population consumes more adult diapers per year than infant diapers. Still, in an effort to quell fears, the Japanese government is reportedly planning to offer a COVID-19 vaccine free of charge to any citizen who wants one, according to a report from Nikkei. People at high risk of developing severe symptoms, particularly the elderly and health care workers, will receive first priority. The full cost will be covered in the national budget, meaning the central government will pay, saving local authorities from shouldering any expense. Exactly how the program will work will be decided by a panel of 'experts' convened by the Japanese government. Currently, the Japanese government is negotiating with multiple pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and others, as it seeks to build a massive stockpile of vaccines. The country's goal is to eradicate the virus in Japan long before the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo.
A Coronavirus Second Wave Grips Spain - The coronavirus is spreading much faster in Spain than anywhere else in Europe. After a relative lull during the summer, experts fear it signals a new surge across the continent.If Italy was the harbinger of the first wave of Europe’s coronavirus pandemic in February, Spain is the portent of its second. France is also surging, as are parts of Eastern Europe, and cases are ticking up in Germany, Greece, Italy and Belgium, too, but in the past week, Spain has recorded the most new cases on the continent by far — more than 53,000. With 114 new infections per 100,000 people in that time, the virus is spreading faster in Spain than in the United States, more than twice as fast as in France, about eight times the rate in Italy and Britain, and 10 times the pace in Germany. Spain was already one of the hardest-hit countries in Europe, and now has about 440,000 cases and more than 29,000 deaths. But after one of the world’s most stringent lockdowns, which did check the virus’s spread, it then enjoyed one of the most rapid reopenings. The return of nightlife and group activities — far faster than most of its European neighbors — has contributed to the epidemic’s resurgence. Now, as other Europeans mull how to restart their economies while still protecting human life, the Spanish have become an early bellwether for how a second wave might happen, how hard it might hit, and how it could be contained. “Perhaps Spain is the canary in the coal mine,” said Prof. Antoni Trilla, an epidemiologist at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, a research group. “Many countries may follow us — but hopefully not at the same speed or with the same number of cases that we are facing. ”To be sure, doctors and politicians are not as terrified by Spain’s second wave as they were by its first. The mortality rate is roughly half the rate at the height of crisis — falling to 6.6 percent from the 12 percent peak in May. The median age of sufferers has dropped to around 37 from 60. Asymptomatic cases account for more than 50 percent of positive results, which is partly due to a fourfold rise in testing. And the health institutions feel much better prepared. “We have experience now,”
Hungary shuts borders; Greece delays school reopening – as it happened -- Here’s a quick recap of the latest coronavirus developments across the globe over the last few hours:
- Greece added to Scotland’s quarantine list. Travellers from Greece will be required to self-isolate at home for 14 days on arrival in Scotland from Thursday.
- Hungary closes borders again. The country has resealed its borders, implementing measures even stricter than those at the height of the pandemic in spring. For at least the month of September, the country is closed to almost everyone except Hungarian citizens and residents, and even they must quarantine on arrival.
- Residential evictions halted in the US on public health grounds.The order, from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, lasts through 31 December and applies to individual renters earning no more than $99,000 in annual income.
- Greece delays school reopening. Greek authorities have delayed the reopening of schools by a week to 14 September because of a surge in Covid-19 infections, the government has said.
- United Arab Emirates records over 500 new Covid-19 infections for second successive day. The government’s communications office said there had been 574 new infections but no deaths in the previous 24 hours, following 541 new infections and two deaths reported on Monday.
- Holidaymakers returning to Wales from Zante asked to quarantine. Health and social services minister Vaughan Gething said public officials had identified “multiple separate clusters” linked to the popular holiday island.
- Household gatherings banned in parts of Greater Glasgow, Scotland. First minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced a ban on household gatherings in three local authorities in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde area for the next two weeks after a surge in coronavirus cases.
COVID-19 cases spike in South Korea - Since August 14, the number of COVID-19 cases has increased sharply in South Korea with hundreds of new infections per day. Most of these have been located in the densely-populated Seoul metropolitan area, which is home to half of the country’s 51 million people. As of September 2, there had been 5,679 new cases over almost three weeks. This has brought the total since mid-last month to 20,449, or nearly 30 percent of all cases during the course of the pandemic. By Wednesday, the number of critically-ill patients had also grown from 12 on August 19 to 124. Hospital beds are lacking, however, despite the ongoing pandemic. In Seoul, there were 55 beds available by the middle of this week for COVID-19 patients in a serious or critical condition and only 16 in the neighbouring Gyeonggi Province. Gangwon Province and North and South Jeolla Provinces, as well as the cities of Gwangju and Daejeon, had no available beds. In response to the surge in cases, the central government raised its three-tier social distancing scale from Level 1 to “2.5,” enforcing stricter measures in the capital region, but not implementing a full lockdown. Public schools and private academies have been shut for students, while restaurants, indoor gyms, churches, and other places where large numbers gather have been closed or had their hours reduced. The government is attempting to justify not going to Level 3 social distancing, which would ban gatherings of ten people or more. President Moon Jae-in stated last week that in the event of a lockdown, “Daily lives will come to a halt, jobs will be lost, and we will have to indeed deal with a huge economic blow.”
India logs record 83,883 Covid-19 cases in day -- India reported a record daily rise of 83,883 coronavirus infections on Thursday, taking its total to 3.85 million cases, just as the country pushed ahead with attempting a return to normality and kickstarting its economy. India now has the fastest growing Covid-19 infection rate in the world, and is only 100,000 cases behind Brazil, the second worst-affected country in the world. Experts are predicting that the south Asian nation will soon overtake Brazil (4 million) and then the US (6.1 million) to hold the dubious title of having the highest number of cases globally. Shahid Jameel, a virologist and CEO of the Wellcome Trust/DBT India Alliance, said that the situation in India did “not look pretty”, adding: “Of the three top countries only India is showing a rising curve. This is a matter of grave concern and there is an urgent need to reverse the trend.” Jameel placed much of the blame for the rampant spread of the virus on public apathy, which he said arose from “the constant narrative from central and state governments of rising recovery rates and low mortality”. He said this was a false depiction of the situation on the ground. “People are not using the only scientifically proven methods to limit transmission: wearing masks properly in public and maintaining safe distancing,” he said. The steep upwards trend, whereby the number of cases in the capital, Delhi, has increased by 50% in the past month, comes as India enters its “unlock 4:0” phase. Services such as metros will resume this week and later this month gatherings of up to 100 people will be permitted at sports, entertainment, cultural, religious and political events. India went into a strict lockdown mid-March while rates of infection remained low. But over the past three months, rates of infection – even in states such as Kerala, celebrated for successfully containing the virus – have increased with an increasing momentum as the country has reopened. The focus of infection is shifting from the big cities to rural areas, where two-thirds of new cases are now being reported. While the virus tends to spread less quickly in rural areas, this is still a cause for concern as 86% of people outside cities have no health insurance, only 20% of doctors serve in rural communities, and only 37% of government hospital beds are in rural areas. The Indian government has continued to downplay the spread of the virus and emphasised instead the need to get the economy moving again. This week India reported a 23.9% drop in its GDP over the past quarter – the greatest recession it has suffered since records began in 1996. It is the worst-hit major economy. And with so many Indians working in the informal sector, the figure was likely to underestimate the country’s hardship, economists said.
EPA sued over decision not to regulate chemical linked to fetal brain damage -An advocacy group on Thursday sued the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) over its decision not to regulate a chemical that has been linked to fetal and infant brain damage. The agency announced in June that it would not regulate the chemical perchlorate even though it estimated that up to 620,000 people could be drinking water with a concerning amount of the chemical. The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) sued Thursday in an attempt to get the agency to withdraw its decision not to regulate the chemical, which is used in rocket fuel. “The agency should establish an enforceable drinking water standard for perchlorate that protects vulnerable people, especially our children,” said Erik Olson, the NRDC’s senior strategic director for its health and food, healthy people and thriving communities program. “Since the current EPA management will not do so voluntarily, we are seeking relief from the courts to force the agency to comply with the law and to follow the scientific evidence,” Olson added in a blog post. The EPA said in a July statement that perchlorate “does not meet the criteria for regulation as a drinking water contaminant” under the Safe Drinking Water Act and said in its decision that the number of people affected by perchlorate was too small to present a “meaningful opportunity for health risk reduction.” EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler also cited regulations that are present in some states and localities that he said are "effectively and efficiently managing levels of perchlorate." The decision not to regulate the chemical follows a prior proposal to set a 56 parts per billion (ppb) standard for the chemical. This would have been stricter than the decision not to regulate, but still would have been significantly higher than the 15 ppb proposed under the Obama administration. Standards set by some states have been even lower, with California setting a 6 ppb maximum and Massachusetts setting a 2 ppb maximum.
UN says new polio outbreak in Sudan caused by oral vaccine — The World Health Organization says a new polio outbreak in Sudan is linked to an ongoing vaccine-sparked epidemic in Chad — a week after the U.N. health agency declared the African continent free of the wild polio virus. In a statement this week, WHO said two children in Sudan — one from South Darfur state and the other from Gedarif state, close to the border with Ethiopia and Eritrea — were paralyzed in March and April. Both had been recently vaccinated against polio. WHO said initial outbreak investigations show the cases are linked to an ongoing vaccine-derived outbreak in Chad that was first detected last year and is now spreading in Chad and Cameroon.“There is local circulation in Sudan and continued sharing of transmission with Chad,” the U.N. agency said, adding that genetic sequencing confirmed numerous introductions of the virus into Sudan from Chad.WHO said it had found 11 additional vaccine-derived polio cases in Sudan and that the virus had also been identified in environmental samples. There are typically many more unreported cases for every confirmed polio patient. The highly infectious disease can spread quickly in contaminated water and most often strikes children under 5. In rare instances, the live polio virus in the oral vaccine can mutate into a form capable of sparking new outbreaks. Last week, WHO and partners declared that the African continent was free of the wild polio virus, calling it “an incredible and emotional day.” On Monday, WHO warned that the risk of further spread of the vaccine-derived polio across central Africa and the Horn of Africa was “high,” noting the large-scale population movements in the region. More than a dozen African countries are currently battling outbreaks of polio caused by the virus, including Angola, Congo, Nigeria and Zambia. Amid the coronavirus pandemic, many of the large-scale vaccination campaigns needed to stamp out polio have been disrupted across Africa and elsewhere, leaving millions of children vulnerable to infection. In April, WHO and its partners reluctantly recommended a temporary halt to mass polio immunization campaigns, recognizing the move could lead to a resurgence of the disease. In May, they reported that 46 campaigns to vaccinate children against polio had been suspended in 38 countries, mostly in Africa, because of the coronavirus pandemic.
UN Forced To Admit Gates-Funded Vaccine Is Causing Polio Outbreak In Africa -This really should be one of the biggest scandals in public health, but it’s given little attention – mainly because of the high-profile nature of the people and organisations involved. The United Nations has been forced to admit that a major international vaccine initiative is actually causing the outbreak of the very disease it was supposed to wipe-out. While international organisations like the World Health Organization (WHO) will regular boast about supposedly ‘eradicating polio’ with vaccines, the opposite seems to be the case. Their decades-long campaign to eradicate polio is now killing scores of innocent young people living in poor countries. Now it seems that health officials are beginning to admit that their plan to stop ‘wild’ polio is backfiring, as scores children are being paralyzed a deadly strain of the pathogen derived from a live vaccine – causing a virulent of polio to spread. This latest pharma-induced pandemic has broken out in the African countries of Chad and Sudan, and the culprit has been identified: a vaccine-derived polio virus type 2. Officials now fear this new dangerous strain could soon ‘jump continents,’ causing further deadly outbreaks around the world. Shocking as it sounds, this Big Pharma debacle is not new. After spending some $16 billion over 30 years to eradicate polio, international health bodies have ‘accidentally’ reintroduced the disease to in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and also Iran, as the central Asia region was hit by a virulent strain of polio spawned by the corporate pharmaceutical vaccine distributed there. Also, in 2019, the government of Ethiopia ordered the destruction of 57,000 vials of type 2 oral polio vaccine (mOPV2) following a similar outbreak of vaccine-induced polio.It’s important to note that the oral polio vaccine being pushed on to the African population by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), a consortium which is supported and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.All of this should be a cause for concern, especially with western governments and transnational pharmaceutical giant all rushing to roll-out their new Gates-funded experimental coronavirus vaccine for the global population.Currently, the first experimental COVID-19 vaccine is being tested on the African population through GAVI Vaccine Alliance, another organization funded by the Gates Foundation. A large round of human trials will take place in South Africa, locally managed by the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg— yet another Gates-funded institution. This latest revelation from Africa should prompt media and health advocates to ask hard questions about the efficacy and safety of the much-hyped COVID ‘miracle’ vaccine.
Blue Jean Fibers Found Polluting Arctic Ocean, Great Lakes - What is the environmental footprint of your favorite pair of blue jeans? A new study indicates it might be quite large. The study, published in Environmental Science and Technology Letters Wednesday, found denim microfibers had infiltrated all the way to the Canadian Arctic Ocean. Researchers say it's a telling example of the extent of human-generated pollution. "It's not an indictment of jeans — I want to be really clear that we're not coming down on jeans," study coauthor and University of Toronto environmental scientist Miriam Diamond told WIRED. "It's just a really potent example of human impact." Scientists and environmental advocates have long known that plastic microfibers rub off synthetic clothing in the washing machine, where they enter the world's oceans and rivers via wastewater treatment plants. One study estimated that two garbage trucks worth of microfibers enter Europe's oceans this way every day. These fibers have been found everywhere from the bellies of deep-sea crustaceans to concentrated hotspotsin the sediment of the Mediterranean seafloor.At any given moment, about half of the world's population is wearing blue jeans or other types of denim. So researchers at the University of Toronto wondered whether the popular garment had an equally global environmental impact. To find out, they looked at water samples from the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, the Great Lakes, and suburban lakes near Toronto. They found that indigo denim microfibers made up a sizable percentage of all the microfibers found in the three locations, according to an American Chemical Society (ACS) press release, the percentages were as follows:
- Toronto Lakes: 12 percent
- Arctic: 20 percent
- Great Lakes: 23 percent
"Unfortunately, the results are not surprising to environmental scientists; they are even expected," Caroline Gauchotte-Lindsay at the University of Glasgow in the UK, who was not involved in the study, told New Scientist. The researchers didn't just look to see where the denim ended up. They also examined how it got there. To do this, they washed used, new and new distressed jeans, according to WIRED. They found that the new jeans released more fibers, and that a pair of jeans could release 56,000 microfibers per wash. They also counted the denim microfibers that turned up in effluent, or discharge, from two wastewater treatment plants on Lake Ontario. They concluded that as many as a billion denim microfibers could be entering the lake every day. While denim is made with organic fiber, not plastic, study coauthor Sam Athey told WIRED that they could still bring human contaminants to ocean ecosystems. "They're called 'natural' textile fibers," Athey said. "I'm doing air quotes around 'natural' because they contain these chemical additives. They also pick up chemicals from the environment, when you're wearing your clothes, when they're in the closet."
Newly Hatched Florida Sea Turtles Are Consuming Dangerous Quantities of Floating Plastic - We work as scientists and rehabilitators at The Whitney Laboratory for Marine Bioscience and Sea Turtle Hospital at the University of Florida. Our main focus is on sea turtle diseases that pose conservation threats, such as fibropapillomatosis tumor disease. However, it's becoming increasingly hard to ignore evidence that plastic pollution poses a growing, hidden threat to the health of endangered sea turtles, particularly our youngest patients. In a newly published study, we describe how we examined 42 post-hatchling loggerhead sea turtles that stranded on beaches in Northeast Florida. We found that almost all of them had ingested plastic in large quantities. Ocean plastic pollution originates mostly from land-based sources, such as landfills and manufacturing plants. One recent study estimates that winds carry 200,000 tons of tiny plastic particles from degraded tires alone into the oceans every year. Plastics are extremely durable, even in salt water. Materials that were made in the 1950s, when plastic mass production began, are still persisting and accumulating in the oceans. Eventually these objects disintegrate into smaller fragments, but they may not break down into their chemical components for centuries. Overall, some 11 million tons of plastic enter the ocean each year. This amount is projected to grow to 29 million tons by 2040. Many forms of plastic threaten marine life. Sea turtles commonly mistake floating bags and balloons for their jellyfish prey. Social media channels are replete with videos and images of sea turtles with plastic strawsstuck in their nostrils, killed in plastic-induced mass mortality events, or dying after ingesting hundreds of plastic fragments. So far, however, scientists don't know a lot about the prevalence and health effects of plastic ingestion in vulnerable young sea turtles. Post-hatchling washbacks are recently hatched baby turtles that successfully travel from their nesting beaches out to the open ocean and start to feed, but are then washed back to shore due to strong winds or ill health. We examined 42 dead washbacks, and found that 39 of them, or 93%, had ingested plastic – often in startling quantities. A majority of it was hard fragments, most commonly colored white.One turtle that weighed 48 grams or 1.6 ounces – roughly equivalent to 16 pennies – had ingested 287 plastic pieces. Another hatchling that weighed just 27 grams, or less than one ounce, had ingested 119 separate pieces of plastic that totaled 1.23% of its body weight. The smallest turtle in our study, with a shell just 4.6 centimeters (1.8 inches) long, had ingested a piece of plastic one-fourth the length of its shell. Consuming such large quantities of plastic increases the likelihood that broken-down plastic nanoparticles or chemicals that leach from them will enter turtles' bloodstreams, with unknown health effects. Ingested plastic can also block turtles' stomachs or intestines. At a minimum, it limits the amount of space that's physically available for consuming and digesting genuine prey that they need to survive and grow.
Animal rights group sues US government to prevent aquarium from acquiring 5 beluga whales - An animal rights group filed a lawsuit against the federal government on Thursday in an effort to stop the Mystic Aquarium in Connecticut from acquiring five new beluga whales. The nonprofit group Friends of Animals filed the suit against U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and the National Marine Fisheries, claiming the permit granted to the Mystic Aquarium violates the Marine Mammal Protection Act and the National Environmental Policy Act. The aquarium already has three beluga whales and the largest outdoor habitat for whales in the U.S., a 750,000-gallon enclosure. Beluga whales are found in the Arctic Ocean and subarctic waters, according to the World Wildlife Fund. The species is considered “near threatened.” “Beluga whales do not belong in captivity,” the lawsuit reads. “They are highly social and intelligent animals who roam large distances in the wild. Captivity robs them of their most basic needs. Belugas are subject to extreme emotional and physical suffering in captivity. Protest groups clash outside of Kentucky Derby The five-year permit claims the aquarium seeks the animals for non-invasive research, which means the whales would not be bred or allowed to be displayed for entertainment purposes at the aquarium. Mystic Aquarium says on its website that it's “a leader in beluga research, care and behaviors.”
The Fires May be in California, but the Smoke, and its Health Effects, Travel Across the Country -- Record setting conflagrations in California and Colorado have smothered residents of the two states with choking, stinging smoke. But the impact of that smoke is also being felt hundreds, even thousands, of miles away, and the health impacts may last for years after the flames subside. If the current fire weather trends continue, said Pete Lahm, a smoke specialist for the U.S. Forest Service, "it's gonna be a hellacious level of smoke out there for a lot of people."Smoke from the current fires has blanketed much of the United States, spreading all the way to the East Coast, although not always falling to the ground level where people can inhale it. Colorado has four large wildfires of its own burning, including one on the verge of becoming the state's largest in history. But much of the smoke around Denver last weekend was from the fires in California, said Colorado state air quality meteorologist Scott Landes."I would say at minimum 50 percent of the smoke that we've had in the Denver area has come from the California wildfires," he said. Doctors have long warned that the smoke from wildfires can damage the hearts and lungs of people who are near the flames. But they are increasingly learning that such emissions may damage livers and kidneys, hobble immune systems and even prompt genetic changes that could be passed down through generations. And with climate change continuing to drive steep increases in the amount of land burning around the planet, millions more people are expected to endure smoke-related illnesses in coming years.
Containment increases on Colorado wildfires, but dry and warm conditions persist through weekend — Firefighters continue to increase containment on the four major wildfires burning in Colorado, but are expecting hot temperatures, gusty winds and drier conditions through the weekend before a cold front arrives early next week. Firefighting efforts for these four fires have cost the state $77 million, according to the National Interagency Fire Center in Idaho.Here is the latest on the four major fires burning in Colorado:
- Grizzly Creek Fire: Firefighters were able to increase containment on the Grizzly Creek Fire on Wednesday to 82% – up 7% from that morning, at 32,464 acres. Fire managers said firefighters have secured containment lines on about 64 miles of the 78-mile fire perimeter.But officials saw warmer and drier conditions Wednesday, which they expect to continue through the weekend. The warmer and drier weather is expected to cause some interior smoke on hot spots well within the fire perimeter that have not fully burned but did not threaten the fire perimeter or any structures. Deputy Incident Commander Tom Kurth said hotshot crews had completed a “major accomplishment” by securing line in the No Name Creek drainage they had been working on for the past week in a steep and rugged area.
- Pine Gulch Fire: Wednesday was a quiet day at the Pine Gulch Fire, with crews focused on continuing to monitor, patrol and mop up the fire.Small pockets of heat are persisting along the fire's northwest side. On Thursday, crews in that area will focus on mopping up along the southern rim of the East Salt Creek main canyon. Crews around the fire will also continue assessing and repairing damage from fire suppression efforts.Because the fire is 83% contained, personnel and equipment are being released to help elsewhere. The Pine Gulch Fire is the largest wildfire in Colorado history at 139,007 acres. It is not expected to grow any more on Thursday.
- Cameron Peak Fire: The Cameron Peak Fire was at 23,137 acres and 6% contained on Thursday morning, and officials were expecting more active fire activity with dry conditions throughout the day - even as they deal with a positive case of COVID-19 among the crew.Officials are giving an update on the fire on Facebook at 7:30 p.m. Thursday.After holding steady for most of the week, fire behavior on Wednesday increased slightly as the area dried out and winds increased, though burned acreage was only up by about 130 acres from Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning was in effect for most of the day Thursday due to dry, warm and windy conditions. Crews on Thursday are planning to monitor the fire along its perimeter and continue structure mitigation and protection in Crystal Lakes, Redfeather Lakes, Glacier View and other nearby areas. Colorado Highway 14 remains closed from Rustic to Gould, and some mandatory evacuations are in place near the fire, though most of those areas have been campgrounds and other outdoor spaces.
- Williams Fork Fire: Fire managers at the Williams Fork Fire, which is burning 15 miles southwest of Fraser, are taking advantage of calmer fire conditions to scout for more containment line opportunities along the north side of the fire.Currently, the fire is 12,097 acres and 10% contained.On Wednesday, crews felled trees that had been damaged and extinguished hot spots along the fire's containment lines. The construction of lines along Crooked Creek Road and St. Louis Creek Road is progressing well, according to the Rocky Mountain Incident Management Team. Before the fire lines are complete, crews will need to reduce the amount of fuel around the perimeter.
Wildfires Have Burned Colorado’s Iconic Forests. Because Of Climate Change, Some Won’t Grow Back The Same | Colorado Public Radio - Marin Chambers was in the middle of a large, high severity burn patch from the 2002 Hayman forest fire, northwest of Colorado Springs. Dead and fallen trees surrounded Chambers, a research associate with the Colorado Forest Restoration Institute at Colorado State University. The fast-moving flames of the Hayman fire charred more acreage than any other wildfire in state history at the time. It’s now second to thePine Gulch fire, still ablaze north of Grand Junction. Nearly 20 years later, the burn patch Chambers stood in seemed to be missing something: Where were the new trees? She and others have found in their research on places like this that Colorado’s forests are struggling to grow back some of the state’s most iconic species, like ponderosa pine and Douglas fir, particularly in lower elevations. Baby trees don’t thrive in increased heat and drought brought on by climate change, combined with larger, high-severity fires. The result, then, decades after a wildfire, is that the landscapes are transformed, perhaps never again to be covered in a lush forest.This patch of 18-square miles burned hot and fast in a single day during the Hayman fire, driven by high winds, drought and an unnaturally dense forest caused by fire suppression. After the flames came through, almost no living trees were left. Taking the long view, comparing it to decades past, Chambers said, “It’s pretty unprecedented in the historical record, or at least what we understand wildfires to have done in the past in this kind of vegetation.” A lower intensity wildfire would have left behind some living trees, scattered through the acres. Those trees would drop seeds, and a forest would regenerate. High-severity fires instead leave behind massive burn areas with almost nothing alive. The tree seeds can’t travel much past the edge of the vast burn scar. If there is forest regeneration, it occurs in bands along the surviving forest edge where seeds drop close by.“In this fire and in other fires in the Front Range of Colorado, the seeds from surviving trees don’t travel very far from their parent trees,” Chambers said. “So especially, the middle of these very high-severity burn areas where lots of the surviving trees are a really far distance from the middle of those patches, we’re likely not going to see tree regeneration occurring.”
Arctic wildfires emit 35% more CO2 so far in 2020 than for whole of 2019 -The amount of carbon dioxide emitted by Arctic wildfires this year is already 35% higher than the figure for the whole of 2019.The latest data, provided by the EU’s Copernicus a tmosphere monitoringservice, shows that up to 24 August 245 megatonnes of CO2 had been released from wildfires this year. The figure for the whole of last year was 181 megatonnes.The peak number of active fire observations was about 600 in late July, compared with 400 in 2019. The average equivalent number between 2003 and 2018 was about 100. Copernicus estimated that 205 megatonnes of CO2 was emitted between 1 June and 31 July alone. The wildfires coincided with a heatwave in Siberia, where temperatures soared to more than 30C (86F) in some areas. Emissions increased significantly in July and early August compared with 2019. “In some respects [the data] has been similar to 2019 in terms of the dry and warm conditions in the Siberian Arctic. This year, the difference was a large cluster of fires that burned through July for many days leading to higher estimated emissions.” Dr Thomas Smith, assistant professor in environmental geography at the London School of Economics, also warned that some fires were destroying ancient peat bogs containing carbon that has accumulated over thousands of years, a process similar to fossil fuel burning.Analysis performed by Smith, covering May and June of this year, suggested that about 50% of the fires in the Arctic Circle were burning on peat soils, with the vast majority of the fire activity occurring in eastern Siberia. In June, Russia’s aerial forest protection service reported that 3.4m acres of Siberian forest were burning in areas unreachable to firefighters. Last summer, the Arctic fires were so intense that they created a cloud of smoke and soot bigger than the EU landmass.
14 million acres of crops affected by powerful derecho in Iowa, U.S. (videos) Up to 5.6 million ha (14 million acres) of crops in Iowa have been battered a powerful derecho that struck parts of the Midwest on August 10, 2020. Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini considers it as one of the worst weather events of 2020 for the country. A powerful line of severe thunderstorms known as a "Derecho" tracked across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois on the afternoon of Monday, August 10, 2020, producing widespread straight line wind damage. A swath of damage from Benton County, through portions of Linn, Jones, Cedar, and Clinton Counties, is consistent with intermittent straight line winds in the 160 - 210 km/h (100 - 130 mph) range, NWS said. Maximum estimated winds were around 225 km/h (140 mph), which caused extensive damage to an apartment complex in southwest Cedar Rapids, IA. Straight line winds of this magnitude are equivalent to an EF-3 tornado. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said a total of 5.6 million ha (14 million acres) of crops in Iowa were affected by the event. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig specified that 1.6 million ha (4 million acres) of corn have been severely damaged, as well as 1 million ha (2.5 million acres) of soybean. The storm exacerbated the situation for farmers as Iowa is already experiencing its most widespread drought since September 2013. Dr. Charles Hurburgh, an expert in corn grain quality at Iowa State University's Extension and Outreach, said the crop damage is likely the biggest one he has ever seen. "Largest area of coverage of multiple problems that I've ever seen and that's what makes it more of a challenge." Hurburgh recommended farmers to check their crops for mold or other toxins. Some of the damaged grain may be used for feed while keeping the bad grains out of the market. This year's total crop damage is yet to be identified until harvest is completed. NASA shared satellite images of the destruction that was so extensive that it was seen from space.
Severe storms with giant hail and tornadoes hit northern Italy, leaving at least 4 people dead (videos) Powerful storms brought lightning, giant hail, and tornadoes to northern Italy over the weekend, causing significant material damage and leaving at least 4 people dead. Severe weather continued into Monday, August 31, but the threat is now shifting into southeastern Europe, including Croatia, Hungary, Serbia, etc. where yellow and orange weather alerts are in effect. Severe weather hit wide swaths of Italy over the weekend, from South Tyrol down to the central region of Lazio around Rome, killing at least 4 people in two separate incidents and leaving several missing. "A supercell outbreak with numerous intense and deadly storms has verified across northern Italy," Severe Weather Europe meteorologists noted August 31. "Several tornadoes were reported, besides destructive winds, very large hail events, and severe flooding." Two girls aged three and 14 were killed on August 29 in Tuscany, when a tornado uprooted a tree which then hit their tent at a campsite in Marina di Mass. Additionally, two German tourists were killed during severe flooding near Bolzano, South Tyrol after their car collided with a lorry. At least one person is missing in the Varese area after being swept away by a swollen river, The Local reports.Hailstones the size of eggs were reported in Cremona, Mantova, and Bergamo in Lombardy, where authorities had to call in heavy machinery to clear out roads.The city of Verona is again making headlines after multiple waves of severe weather since August 23. The city has been hit by severe flooding, giant hailstones, and strong winds, causing considerable damage. Severe damage reports are coming from the entire Veneto region, with Vicenza and Belluno areas hit particularly hard. Vincenza was reportedly hit by a tornado that flattened trees, fences and road signs, and damaged buildings.
17 dead, more than 10 000 houses damaged in Odisha floods, India - At least 17 people died while more than 10 000 houses were damaged by floods in India's Odisha state as of Monday, August 31, 2020. Although the situation has improved, over 1.4 million people remain affected across 20 districts. The state saw days of heavy rainfall from August 25, with several places recording more than 200 mm (8 inches) in 24 hours. In Marshaghai, Kendrapara, 234 mm (9 inches) of rain fell in a 24-hour period to August 26, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported. Downpours pushed rivers above the danger mark in five sites, including the Subarnarekha River in Baleshwar, which hit record levels of around 6.9 m (22.7 feet) on August 27. The river was above the danger mark of 5.5 m (18 feet), beating the previous high of 6.8 m (22.3 feet), according to the Central Water Commission (CWC). As of Monday, August 31, the rivers Subarnarekha, Budhabalanga, Baitarani, and Brahmani have been stable and flowing below the danger level, water resources secretary Anu Garg said. Three sluice gates of Rengali Dam have also been closed, while the fourth will soon be shut. While the situation has improved, disaster authorities said more than 1.4 million people remain affected across 3 256 villages across 20 districts of Odisha. The state government also reported that more than 100 roads have been blocked across 11 districts, stranding more than 265 000 residents in 340 villages. At least 17 people lost their lives in flood-related incidents, while dozens were rescued by the fire services and national disaster response forces. More than 10 000 houses were also damaged.
24 dead, 11,000 displaced after highest August rain in 44 years hits Madhya Pradesh, India- At least 24 people lost their lives while 11 000 residents have been displaced after heavy rains struck Madhya Pradesh from August 27 to 31, 2020, causing major flooding. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this was the state's highest rainfall for the month of August in 44 years. Authorities reported at least 24 fatalities while 11 000 others have been evacuated by the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) from widespread flooding during the end of August. More than 400 mm (16 inches) of rain was recorded in a 24-hour period to August 30 solely. This led the Narmada River at Hoshangabad to rise around 2 m (7 feet) above the danger mark on August 1. Other districts hit badly by flooding include Raisen, Sehore, Bhopal, Vidisha, Chhindwara, Balaghat, Seoni, Katni, Sagar, Shivpuri and Ujjain India’s Disaster Management Division (DMD) said flooding over the past few days has affected 33 000 people across 1 906 villages and 28 districts of the state. A total of 11,197 homes have also been damaged.
Severe flood death toll at 251, more than 5 million affected and wide swaths of crops lost, Bangladesh - A total of 251 people have lost their lives while more than five million people have been affected due to severe floods across Bangladesh, officials confirmed in a media statement on Friday, August 28, 2020. The loss of crops has also been put at 13.2 billion takas or about 156 million dollars. The Health Emergency Operation Center and the Control Room of Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) revealed the figures after studying the control room data from the last two months. As many as 269 sub-units in 33 districts have been flooded, and 210 of the fatalities were due to drowning, 25 from snake bites, 13 from lightning, one from diarrhea, and two from injuries. According to the Asian News International (ANI), quoting the daily disaster report by the National Disaster Response Coordination Center, more than five million people have been affected, while thousands of households were forced to evacuate. "Also, the loss of crops due to floods in Bangladesh has been put at 13.23 billion takas (about 156.4 million US dollars)," ANI wrote.
At least 190 dead, 4 000 houses damaged or destroyed as devastating floods hit Parwan, Afghanistan - The death toll from a week of severe flooding in Parwan, Afghanistan, has reached at least 190 on Tuesday, September 1, 2020. Scores of people were injured, about 4 000 houses were damaged or destroyed, and many others are still missing, leaving the victims' families devastated.The floods started last Tuesday, August 25, after heavy rains struck northern Parwan Province, affecting the city of Charikar the most.Raging waters dislocated thousands of boulders that destroyed houses and buried people under the rubble. Initial reports showed that 121 people died while 136 others were injured, according to deputy spokesman Rahmatullah Haidari.As of September 1, at least 190 fatalities have been reported and 170 injured, with the number of deaths expected to further rise."Our rescue teams are removing rubble at the sites and looking for more possible dead bodies," said state minister for disaster management, Ghulam Bahawudin Jilani. He added that overall, 1 055 houses have been completely destroyed, while almost 3 000 were partially damaged.
Nearly 200 000 people affected by major flooding after record rains hit Chad (videos) Some 190 000 people across Chad have been affected by severe flooding triggered by record downpours since early August. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), nearly 120 000 of these victims have been displaced-- much of the affected were in the capital city of N'Djamena, where 10 people have died across seven departments due to flash flood-related incidents. Some of the victims have sought shelter with other relatives and friends as numerous houses have been damaged or destroyed. "The flooding has exacerbated the already challenging situation for many of the most vulnerable N'djamenois, who are now seeking refuge in local school buildings after having lost not only their homes but also their livelihoods," Anne Schaefer added, IOM Chad's chief of mission. At least 10 people have died across seven departments in N'djamena after severe flooding. Hundreds of houses were damaged or destroyed, displacing thousands of people. Flooding also struck other parts of the country, including the Lac Province, which already hosts 6 807 displaced persons-- 33 000 of them were evacuated due to flooding. "Not only does the damage caused by floods exacerbate the risks of COVID-19 due to unsanitary conditions, [but] there are [also] very high risks of cholera and malaria outbreaks as water levels rise and water stagnates in the city," Schaefer noted. This year, the Lake Region has had its highest rainfall in almost 30 years.
Hurricane "Laura" aftermath: at least 54 people dead, widespread destruction across the Caribbean and US Gulf Coast - Hurricane "Laura" entered history books as a deadly, very powerful, and damaging hurricane that tied the Last Island Hurricane of 1856 as the strongest hurricane ever recorded to make landfall in Louisiana, U.S. Laura is the 12th named storm, 4th hurricane, and 1st major hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. At least 53 people were killed, as of August 30, 2020 -- 31 in Haiti, 4 in the Dominican Republic and 18 in the United States (10 in Louisiana, 7 in Texas and 1 in Florida). Laura intensified into a tropical storm on August 21 when it was about 375 km (230 miles) ESE of the northern Leeward Islands. This made it the earliest 12th named storm in the Atlantic Ocean on record, beating the previous record held by Hurricane "Luis" of 1995 by 8 days. The storm was strengthening as it passed just south of Puerto Rico and early on August 23, it made landfall near San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic with maximum sustained winds of 72 km/h (45 mph). On the same day, it passed near Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic, and emerged from Haiti and crossed the Windward Passage, making a second landfall near Santiago de Cuba Province, Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 1 000 hPa. The third landfall took place around 00:00 UTC on August 25 in western Cuba's Pinar del Rio Province. The storm then entered the Gulf of Mexico and started reorganizing. Laura brought heavy rainfall to the islands of Guadeloupe and Dominica. In the Netherlands Antilles, Saba, Sint Eustatius, and Sint-Maarten saw minor flooding. Scattered power outages affected 4 000 people in Saint Kitts and Nevis. In the Virgin Islands, a peak wind gust of 65 km/h (41 mph) was reported in Sandy Point, Saint Croix. The Virgin Islands reported some power outages and flash flooding. Puerto Rico authorities declared a state of emergency after roughly 200 000 customers lost power and nearly 14 000 access to running water. A peak 104 mm (4.09 inches) of rain was reported in Villalba and peak wind gust of 121 km/h (75 mph) in Salinas. In the Dominican Republic, the heaviest rains were reported in the country's southern coast. The highest 24-hour rainfall accumulation was recorded in Barahona at 300 mm (11.7 inches). According to media reports, approximately 1.1 million people lost power, and 1.56 million experienced water service disruption. Estimates made on August 24 included 1 791 damaged homes. At least 4 people lost their lives. Widespread flooding also hit Haiti where Peligre Dam overflowed, sending floodwaters down the Artibonite valley. Floods damaged 447 homes and destroyed 15 in the Artibonite. At least 31 people lost their lives and 8 went missing. In Cuba, 260 000 people were forced to evacuate. A wind gust of 146 km/h (91 mph) was recorded in Maisi, where residents reported downed trees and destroyed roofs. 231.5 mm (9.51 inches) of rain was recorded in Complejo Palma, Santiago de Cuba, and 190.6 mm (7.50 inches) in San Antonio del Sura, Guantanamo. A bridge in Buey Arriba, Granma Province, collapsed due to flooding, stranding residents of 30 communities. Flash flooding and significant disruption to road infrastructure were also reported across Jamaica. On August 25, a St. George Island first responder drowned while trying to rescue a swimmer caught in rough surf. This was Laura's first fatality in the United States.
Suffocating heat torments hurricane-ravaged areas of Louisiana, where more than 300,000 lack power - Large portions of southwestern Louisiana remain without power four days after Hurricane Laura struck the region as the strongest storm on record for this part of the state, with gusts topping 150 mph. Now, the areas hit hardest are dealing with dangerous levels of heat and humidity that could last several more days, according to the National Weather Service.One extreme weather event layered atop another makes the region’s arduous recovery process even more difficult. Many residents are without air conditioning and lack running water while stifling heat, among the most lethal weather hazards, takes hold. The absence of basic services amid a punishing heat wave is made even more daunting by the novel coronavirus, which is keeping many residents at home or in shelters. Louisiana has seen 661 new cases in the past week alone, and the hurricane disrupted testing efforts. On Monday, the Weather Service upgraded a heat advisory for extreme southwestern Louisiana, including Lake Charles and Cameron, to an excessive heat warning, cautioning that the combination of the heat and humidity would make it feel like 111 to 114 degrees outside.“An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur,” the Weather Service said. “The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a DANGEROUS SITUATION in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.”The warning area also included counties in southeastern Texas along the Louisiana border that were seriously affected by Laura. Heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States in some years, and those without access to air conditioning are most vulnerable, especially older adults, those with preexisting medical conditions and the socially isolated.The widespread power outages in extreme southwestern Louisiana and parts of Texas along the Louisiana border mean limited access to air conditioning. Compounding problems even more, some of these areas, including Lake Charles, lack access to running water, according to a Federal Emergency Management Agency briefing for senior leadership obtained by The Washington Post. To compensate for the lack of power, some residents were relying on generators, which can create a hazard if improperly installed. Eight people died of carbon monoxide poisoning in the hurricane’s wake.
Damaged transmission towers slow Hurricane Laura recovery - Hurricane Laura caused “catastrophic” damage to Louisiana’s electric grid, which will leave some customers without power for weeks, Entergy said Wednesday in an update on the state’s recovery from last month’s storm. “Our damage assessments indicate catastrophic damage to our electrical infrastructure,” the company said in its Sept. 2 update. “We expect the recovery to be as difficult and challenging as we have ever faced in the past. Customers should expect extended power outages lasting for weeks.” Entergy reported 140,449 customers in four states still without power since the storm made landfall as a category 4 hurricane on Aug. 29, a 77-percent restoration rate from the peak 616,000 customers. In Louisiana, the restoration rate was 56 percent with 119,786 still without power. Throughout the region, approximately 268,000 customers were still without power, down from a peak of nearly 989,000 and a restoration rate of nearly 73 percent, according to the Edison Electric Institute. More than 29,000 utility workers from across the United States and from Canada were still repairing the damage in the storm area. “The damage assessments completed by crews on the ground and by helicopter and drone flights have revealed the catastrophic damage that Laura caused to nearly 1,000 transmission structures in Louisiana and parts of southeast Texas,” EEI said in its Sept. 2 update. “Often, crews must use fan boats, barges, and tracked vehicles just to reach some of the most heavily damaged areas.” Laura took a heavy toll on the largest of the transmission towers that distribute power throughout the state. The major steel structures that support the mainstay 500,000-volt power lines buckled in some locations and will require a significant construction effort to repair.
Louisiana moves two mobile air monitoring labs to Lake Charles - The state Department of Environmental Quality has moved two of its three Mobile Air Monitoring Labs, which they've affectionately dubbed "mammals," to the Lake Charles area, where a loss of power has meant no monitoring of air pollutants since Hurricane Laura's landfall on Thursday. The federal Environmental Protection Agency conducted some hand-held and aerial monitoring in the Lake Charles area on Thursday and Friday, following an intense fire and chlorine gas release at the BioLab Inc. manufacturing facility in Westlake. Chlorine, other chemicals detected near Hurricane Laura-damaged chemical plant, EPA says “We are glad to use the MAMLs to monitor ambient air quality while our ambient air-monitoring network is out of power. This is not the MAMLs’ intended use, but they can do the job," said DEQ Secretary Chuck Carr Brown. "We hope to have our monitoring system back up and running soon. Like so many others in the storm impact zone, we are awaiting the restoration of electric power.” The custom laboratories are mounted on a 35-foot truck chassis, and house equipment, supplies and work gear for DEQ staff to use in monitoring and testing for chemicals. The labs have gas chromatographs, reduced sulphur compound analyzers, analyzers to identify methane, and other monitoring equipment.
Tropical Storm "Omar" forms off the coast of North Carolina, U.S. - Tropical Storm "Omar" formed at 21:00 UTC on September 1, 2020, as the earliest 15th named storm in the Atlantic Ocean. The previous record was set by Ophelia on September 7, 2005. The storm is moving away from the coast and is expected to be short-lived. At 21:00 UTC on September 1, Omar's center was located 365 km (225 miles) E of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, U.S. The system had maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) and was moving ENE at 24 km/h (15 mph). Its minimum central pressure was 1 007 hPa. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 95 km (60 miles).
Tropical Storm "Nana" forms near Jamaica, forecast to make landfall in Belize - Tropical Storm "Nana" formed at 16:05 UTC on September 1, 2020, as the earliest 14th named storm in the Atlantic Ocean on record. The previous record was set by Nate on September 6, 2005. At the time it formed, Nana's center was about 195 km (120 miles) SW of Kingston, Jamaica. The system is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast of Belize. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. At 18:00 UTC on September 1, Nana's center was located 175 km (110 miles) S of Negril, Jamaica, and 1 045 km (650 miles) E of Belize City, Belize. Its maximum, sustained winds were 85 km/h (50 mph) and minimum central pressure 1 002 hPa. Nana is moving to the W at 30 km/h (18 mph). The current NHC forecast track takes Nana near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday, September 2, and likely be approaching the coast of Belize on Thursday, September 3 as a hurricane.
Hurricane "Nana" makes landfall in Belize - Hurricane "Nana" made landfall in a relatively sparsely populated area of Belize, between Dangriga and Placencia at 06:00 UTC on September 3, 2020, with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph). Nana is the 5th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and the first hurricane to make landfall in Belize since Earl in 2016. Belize authorities evacuated more than 4 000 people ahead of landfall which took place between Dangriga and Placencia some 80 km (50 miles) south of Belize City. Thousands of people reportedly stocked up on food, water, and construction materials on Wednesday. Media reported long lines in supermarkets and nearly empty shelves in hardware stores after residents bought materials to board up windows and doors. By 12:00 UTC, Nana's center reached northern Guatemala. At the time, the system had maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph) and was moving WSW at 24 km/h (15 mph).The government of Belize has discontinued all coastal watches and warnings while Mexico discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico. On the forecast track, Nana will continue moving inland over Guatemala and extreme southeastern Mexico today and tonight while rapidly weakening.
FEMA Spends More Preparing for Terrorism Than Hurricanes -- In the days and hours before Hurricane Laura reached the Gulf Coast, emergency personnel took up positions in Texas and Louisiana and readied half a million meals and 800,000 liters of water. It’s the role of the Federal Emergency Management Agency to coordinate the immediate response to storms, floods and wildfires, all of which have become more common as a result of global warming. But even though scientists have warned of increasingly extreme weather, preparation for climate-related disasters hasn’t been FEMA’s top spending priority. An analysis of preparedness grants disbursed by FEMA shows the agency spends far more on counter-terror than natural disasters. In 2019, for example, the U.S. Government Accountability Office found more than $1 billion in FEMA grants assigned to counter-terror preparation and only $315 million in readiness for natural disasters. There are new FEMA grant programs for 2020 that will disburse $660 million in funding for what the agency calls “pre-disaster mitigation,” focusing on resiliency against flooding and the relocation of vulnerable communities. Last year, however, approximately 75% of FEMA’s total preparedness grants went to the programs with counter-terrorism links, according to the GAO report.
Maysak becomes strongest typhoon of the year, heads toward South Korea after lashing Okinawa - Typhoon "Maysak" became the strongest typhoon of the year on August 31, 2020, with its eye passing very close to Kume Island, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan. The storm is moving towards the Korean Peninsula, with landfall expected near Busan, South Korea on September 2. Another powerful typhoon -- Haishen -- is expected to move toward Japan later this week, and possibly impact Kyushu around September 6 before it approaches the Korean Peninsula.Maysak intensified to Category 4 hurricane equivalent on August 31, becoming the strongest typhoon of the year so far. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Maysak's central pressure was around 940 hPa, which is nearly the same as Hurricane "Laura" at the time of landfall in Louisiana, U.S.Kumejima airport recorded the strongest wind gust at 196 km/h (121 mph) and 225 mm (8.8 inches) of rain in 24 hours.At least 5 people have been injured and more than 30 000 households lost power.In Okinawa's capital Naha, where peak gust of 157 km/h (98 mph) was measured, a wall of a building was ripped off, damaging two cars parked nearby. Many buildings had their roofs blown off, more than 250 flights have been canceled and many bus and ferry services temporarily canceled.Maysak is now moving towards the north and is expected to pass very close to Kyushu before it makes landfall in South Korea on September 2 as one of the strongest typhoons to hit the country on record. Only 5 other Category 2+ typhoons have made landfall in South Korea since 1959.The country is still recovering from this year's record-long monsoon which caused destructive flooding and left more than 40 people dead.After moving over South Korea, Maysak is forecast to reach North Korea -- which was hit byTyphoon "Bavi" last week, one of the country's three strongest typhoons on record.
Typhoon "Maysak" makes landfall near Busan, South Korea - At least one person died and more than 2 000 were displaced as powerful Typhoon "Maysak" hit South Korea, authorities said Thursday, September 3, 2020. The storm packed maximum sustained winds of 170 km/h (105 mph) at the time of landfall, knocking down trees and poles, flooding streets, and cutting power to nearly 280 000 homes. Maysak is the 6th Category 2 or greater storm to lash South Korea since credible records started in 1951, and the 4th typhoon to hit the Korean Peninsula in the 2020 Pacific typhoon season. It also set a low-pressure record for South Korea at 950 hPa. Maysak touched down near Busan, South Korea, on Wednesday, September 2, as Category 2 hurricane equivalent. Busan is South Korea's second-largest city and the world's fifth-largest port. A woman died after a strong gust of wind shattered her apartment window in Busan, while an elderly man was injured. More than 2 200 people evacuated to shelters, while around 278 6000 homes were left without power throughout the night across the southern region and on Jeju Island. Since Tuesday, September 1, Jeju recorded 1 000 mm (39 inches) of rainfall. More than 950 domestic flights were canceled, while some rail services were disrupted for safety purposes. As of Thursday morning, crews have managed to restore electricity to about 199 400 houses.
Ocean acidification causing coral 'osteoporosis' on iconic reefs -- Scientists have long suspected that ocean acidification is affecting corals' ability to build their skeletons, but it has been challenging to isolate its effect from that of simultaneous warming ocean temperatures, which also influence coral growth. New research from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) reveals the distinct impact that ocean acidification is having on coral growth on some of the world's iconic reefs. In a paper published Aug. 27, 2020, in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, researchers show a significant reduction in the density of coral skeleton along much of the Great Barrier Reef--the world's largest coral reef system--and also on two reefs in the South China Sea, which they attribute largely to the increasing acidity of the waters surrounding these reefs since 1950. "This is the first unambiguous detection and attribution of ocean acidification's impact on coral growth," says lead author and WHOI scientist Weifu Guo. "Our study presents strong evidence that 20th century ocean acidification, exacerbated by reef biogeochemical processes, had measurable effects on the growth of a keystone reef-building coral species across the Great Barrier Reef and in the South China Sea. These effects will likely accelerate as ocean acidification progresses over the next several decades." Roughly a third of global carbon dioxide emissions are absorbed by the ocean, causing an average 0.1 unit decline in seawater pH since the pre-industrial era. This phenomenon, known as ocean acidification, has led to a 20 percent decrease in the concentration of carbonate ions in seawater. Animals that rely on calcium carbonate to create their skeletons, such as corals, are at risk as ocean pH continues to decline. Ocean acidification targets the density of the skeleton, silently whittling away at the coral's strength, much like osteoporosis weakens bones in humans.
- Cumulative PV capacity to be 1,600 GW and 4,500 GW,
- Cumulative PV waste to reach up to 8 million tonnes and 78 million tonnes,
- Value creation to be $450 million and $15 billion in raw materials recovery,
- New industries and employment opportunities to arise from repair, reuse, recycling and treatment of PV panels,
- Enough raw materials recovered to produce 60 million new panels (equivalent to 18 GW) and 2 billion new panels (equivalent to 630 GW).
Current global panel recycling trends are not yet poised to capitalize on this environmental and economic opportunity. According to Grist, while the E.U. requires manufacturers to ensure panels are properly recycled, in the U.S., there are no regulatory frameworks requiring the recycling of old panels, except for Washington state. In Japan, India and Australia, recycling requirements are being discussed. Without robust recycling mandates, most of this toxic trash will be sent to landfills.
Climate Crisis Could Change Permafrost Soil Microbes, With ‘Unknown Consequences’ for Arctic Ecosystems, Scientists Say - Can the past predict the future? In the case of communities of microbes living in the Arctic permafrost, researchers at the University of Alberta think it might. The scientists discovered that the microbes and chemistry of Arctic soil changed dramatically following the end of the last Ice Age, and the same thing could happen again due to the climate crisis."Since soils are where plants grow and where nearly all terrestrial life lives, this could have big impacts on the entire Arctic ecosystem," study coauthor and University of Alberta associate professor Brian Lanoi said in auniversity press release. "Our work shows this happened before, and it is possible that this could happen again as the result of current climate change. The study, published in Frontiers in Environmental Science this month helped fill a gap in scientists' understanding of how the end of the Ice Age impacted soil communities. The shift between the Ice Age (the Pleistocene) and the current era (the Holocene) led to dramatic and well-documented changes in plant and animal life, but, until now, it had not been clear if it caused equally dramatic changes to the communities of microbes living in the Arctic soil.However, previous studies had looked at permafrost sediments dating from either the Pleistocene or Holocene. To better understand the transition, the University of Alberta researchers looked at sediment that showed the transition between the two geological epochs. They then analyzed the samples under sterile conditions for both their genetic makeup and chemical composition, and found that both markers were very different before and after the transitional period. "We found that both the microbial communities and the chemical parameters are stable within each era until they cross a threshold, driven by the change in climate," Lanoil explained in the press release. "After that threshold, there is an abrupt switch to a new microbial community and new soil chemistry. We argue that modern climate change could lead to a similar transition in state for soils in Arctic ecosystems, with unknown consequences."
Another giant sinkhole opens up in Yamal Peninsula, Russia (news video) A new massive sinkhole opened up last week in the Russian Yamal Peninsula, with blocks of soil and ice thrown hundreds of meters from the hole. This is the 17th -- and considered the largest -- such sinkhole to form in the Yamal Peninsula since the phenomenon was first observed in 2014. A group of scientists examined the crater and determined it has a depth of up to 50 m (164 feet). It was spotted by chance from the air by a Vesti Yamal TV.
Russia’s permafrost is melting -The frozen wastes of Russia’s interior are melting. That’s a big problem for Russia. And it could be an even bigger problem for the planet. A large share of Russia’s oil, gas, diamonds and metals are produced in cities that sit on the permafrost. And thousands of kilometres of roads, rails and pipelines could sink into a bog, while some of the buildings and processing plants will simply fall over if the ground melts. The climate crisis arrived in Russia this year and is going faster than elsewhere. Temperatures in northeastern Russia are rising two and half times faster than in the rest of the world. Few people live there but if Russia’s permafrost melts the economic cost could be astronomical. Russia has 24 regions that are permanently frozen but only nine of those contain extensive infrastructure and cities. However, these regions are key to Russia’s economy, producing the bulk of its raw materials that account for almost half of the country’s GDP.The main issue is that because the ground is so hard everything is built on piles driven into the ice. Even in the brief summers, which only last a month, typically only the first half metre of top soil melts, which is why the pine trees that blanket much of the taiga are only a metre or so tall; their roots can’t get very deep before hitting the concrete-like layer of ice.If the permafrost melts it will cause billions of dollars worth of damage. A recent study by Dmitry Streletskiy tried to assess the impact of climate change on the fixed assets in Russia’s permafrost regions that was published in Environmental Research Letters and goes into a lot of detail.While the population density of everything east of the Ural mountains – the formal end of Europe – is thin, there has actually been a fair amount of building done in the Asian part of Russia, mostly by the Soviets. The total value of all these fixed assets – buildings, factories, pipelines, roads, etc. – in just the nine most at risk regions is $1.29 trillion, or about 17% of Russia’s entire fixed assets.
Greenland and Antarctica Already Melting at 'Worst-Case-Scenario' Rates - Antarctica and Greenland's ice sheets are currently melting at a pace consistent with worst-case-scenario predictions for sea level rise, with serious consequences for coastal communities and the reliability of climatemodels. A paper published in Nature Climate Change Monday compared the latest satellite observations of polar ice melt with the predictions outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. It found that the ice sheets are currently raising sea levels at a rate 45 percent above the IPCC's central prediction and closer to its worst-case scenario. If this continues, the two ice sheets could raise sea levels a further 17 centimeters (approximately 7 inches) more than central predictions by 2100."If ice sheet losses continue to track our worst-case climate warming scenarios we should expect an additional 17cm of sea level rise from the ice sheets alone," study coauthor and University of Leeds researcher Anna Hogg said in a university press release. "That's enough to double the frequency of storm-surge flooding in many of the world's largest coastal cities."Since the 1990s, the two ice sheets have already increased global sea levels by 1.8 centimeters (approximately 0.7 inches). But it was between 2007 and 2017 that the ice sheets began to lose mass at a rate consistent with worst-case-scenario projections, adding around 1.23 centimeters (approximately 0.5 inches) to the water line during that decade, according to the study. A worst-case-scenario sea level rise as currently predicted would expose 44 to 66 million people to yearly coastal flooding by century's end. But one of study's most alarming implications is that, if sea level rise is already tracking worst-case-scenario predictions, the actual worst-case scenario could be even more dire. "We need to come up with a new worst-case scenario for the ice sheets because they are already melting at a rate in line with our current one," lead author and Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) at the University of Leeds researcher Thomas Slater told AFP. "Sea level projections are critical in helping governments plan climate policy, mitigation and adaptation strategies. If we underestimate future sea level rise, then these measures may be inadequate and leave coastal communities vulnerable." The latest study follows a slew of bad news for the world's ice. One study published in August found that the Greenland ice sheet had passed the "point of no return" and would continue to melt even if the climate crisis were halted.Another recent study, also driven by Leeds' CPOM, calculated that the earth had lost 28 trillion tonnes (approximately 31 trillion U.S. tons) of ice in just 23 years. These studies reflect a new global reality: In the last five years, melt from ice sheets and glaciers has outpaced the expansion of warming ocean water as the main cause of sea level rise.
Aviation Accounts for 3.5% of Global Warming Caused by Humans, New Research Says - A new international study that used unprecedented calculations to pinpoint how much global air travel contributes to the heating of the atmosphere found that aviation makes up 3.5 percent of all the activities that contribute to the climate crisis, according to the University of Reading in the UK where some of the research was conducted. It turns out that in the last 20 years, air travel has doubled its contribution as a driver of the climate crisis. "It is growing so rapidly," said David Lee at Manchester Metropolitan University in the UK, as The New Scientist reported. "It's just astonishing." The study looked at the time frame from 2000 to 2018, so it did not account for the current slowdown in air travel due to the coronavirus pandemic. And yet, Lee said that the current slowdown will be just a blip compared to the long-term damage that has already been done by air travel. "It's not going to make much difference in the long term," Lee said, according to The New Scientist. The paper, published in Atmospheric Environment, was a collaboration of international scientists. The researchers took the most comprehensive look to date at the various components of air travel, from the use of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide, to the effect that the white contrails behind a jet engine have on absorbing sunlight. It turns out that those contrails along with a mix of water vapor, nitrogen oxide, aerosol gases and soot make up two-thirds of the environmental impact, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The remaining one-third is attributed to the cumulative effect of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. "The biggest problem underlying aviation is basically the public's desire to fly," said Lee, as CGTN in Beijing, China reported. "The problem with aviation is that it's highly dependent on liquid fossil fuel, kerosene, to power aircraft. So if we continue to depend on fossil fuel for powering an aircraft, it will become a much larger percentage of total emissions over time."
Extinction Rebellion Returns to UK Streets - After a coronavirus-induced hiatus, the activist group Extinction Rebellion (XR) is back on the streets of the UK demanding action on the climate crisis.The group kicked off 10 days of planned civil disobedience on Tuesday with protests in London, Manchester and Cardiff, The Guardian reported. The London protest ended in Parliament Square as the UK's legislative body returned from its summer recess."The government is failing to do what's necessary to keep people safe. We are here, taking action, because their criminal negligence is putting lives at risk," Extinction Rebellion said on its website, Reuters reported. "We refuse to be bystanders and wait for this emergency to push beyond the point of no return."Specifically, the group wants Parliament to pass the Climate and Ecological Emergency (CEE) Bill. The CEE Bill was written by a coalition of scientists, lawyers and activists determined to advance UK climate policy beyond its current goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Instead, it would require a climate plan that would:
- Reduce emissions enough to account for the UK's "fair share" of carbon pollution
- Account for the country's whole carbon footprint, both at home and abroad
- Protect nature both in the UK and abroad by looking at the impact of consumer supply chains
- Not rely on new technologies as an excuse to keep polluting at current levels
- Create a citizen's assembly "with bite" to shape climate policy
Ohio River Valley Institute Launched to Promote Clean Energy Economy - — The Ohio River Valley Institute, a newly established think tank, was unveiled today with the mission of achieving job growth by embracing the clean energy economy.The Institute’s focus is the Appalachian regions of Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky. The goal, organizers say, is to equip residents and decision makers with in-depth research, analysis, and commentary to advance long-term solutions to some of Appalachia’s most pressing economic and social challenges.“The need for new, evidence-based perspectives on public policy is acute in a region where purported economic game-changers, including the natural gas fracking boom and a proposed build-out of the petrochemical and plastics industries, have conspicuously failed to deliver on promises of jobs and prosperity,” the institute states in its announcement. “Meanwhile, other regions of the country, which have embraced the emerging clean energy economy and more inclusive policymaking, have experienced healthy growth in jobs and commerce.”Joanne Kilgour, the Institute’s executive director, formerly the Pennsylvania chapter director for the Sierra Club, sites New England, Texas and the Northwest as diverse regions that saw “excellent jobs and economic growth before the coronavirus crisis. Learning from those experiences can help us reverse the employment stagnation and population decline, which have plagued the greater Ohio Valley and western Pennsylvania since the dawn of the fracking boom,” he says.“We’ve spoken with economists, policy analysts, and community leaders who agree that a massive build-out of polluting industries isn’t a plausible economic strategy and that pursuing it will squander public resources that could be better used to develop better options,” Kilgour says. That view was expressed by a group of economists and a former Pennsylvania secretary of environmental protection in a recently released public letter to the governors of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The organizer of that letter, Sean O’Leary, will serve as a senior researcher at the Institute.
Trump's U.S. EPA chief claims climate-change fight hurts the poor (Reuters) - The head of the Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday accused Democrats of hurting the poor with policies aimed at fighting climate change, and said the agency would keep supporting development and deregulation if President Donald Trump is re-elected. The speech, on the EPA’s 50th anniversary, laid out agency priorities if Trump wins a second term in office. It reflected the gaping ideological divide between Democrats and the administration, which has loosened regulations for pollution and vehicle fuel efficiency and promoted oil and gas drilling. “Some members of former administrations and progressives in Congress have elevated single issue advocacy – in many cases focused just on climate change ... over the interests of communities within their own country,” EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a speech that was streamed live on YouTube. Critics said the administration’s deregulatory agenda has undermined public health by rolling back water and air protections, disproportionately harming low income communities. Congressional Democrats argue that a transition to clean energy will create jobs across the economy. Wheeler said if Trump were re-elected the agency would focus on community revitalization, water quality, permitting reform, Superfund cleanups, and pesticide administration. “This will do more for environmental justice than all the rhetoric in political campaigns,” he said in the speech, given at the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda, California, whose namesake President Richard Nixon, a Republican, created the EPA in 1970. He criticized California for efforts to replace fossil fuels with renewable power sources like solar and wind, blaming that push for the state’s rolling blackouts. He also took aim at New York for blocking a natural gas pipeline. Former EPA officials decried the speech, saying it was an attempt to justify gutting a slew of green regulations.
Interior watchdog: top officials misled Congress on BLM relocation out West - Top Interior Department officials misled Congress when they claimed high office rent in Washington, D.C., was a factor in the need to move the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to a new headquarters in Colorado, the agency’s internal watchdog found. A report on Tuesday from Interior’s Office of Inspector General found that two officials overplayed the cost of BLM’s M Street SE lease near Nationals Park as a motivating factor in the move, as the agency already had plans underway to return to office space owned by the government. Joseph Balash, a former assistant secretary for land and minerals management who now works in the oil industry, and BLM acting Director William Perry Pendley, whose tenure with the agency is the subject of a lawsuit, are implicated in the report. Both men wrote in correspondence with Congress that BLM would be unable to stay in its existing M Street SE office because the cost would exceed the $50 per square foot limit set by the government. The report found the claims were “misleading” and said that “the future lease cost of 20 M Street was irrelevant.” Interior announced in July of last year that it would move more than 200 of BLM’s Washington-based employees to existing offices across the West, while putting nearly 25 of its top-ranking leaders at a new headquarters in Grand Junction, Colo. The move would leave just 61 of BLM’s 10,000 employees in Washington. The move was considered a victory for Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), who is facing a tight reelection campaign, but it raised the eyebrows of former BLM employees, who questioned why the agency would leave such a small footprint in D.C. and set up shop in a town four hours from any major airport. But well before Grand Junction was on the drawing board, BLM was already planning to leave its M Street SE space. “When we got that lease it was a bargain,” said Steve Ellis, who retired from the highest-ranking career position within BLM in 2016. “Since we moved people in there, Nationals Park popped up across the street, the area’s become much more popular and built up. That’s a good thing, but it meant the lease would be cost prohibitive when it ended, so we we're looking around at options.”
Trump will roll back more environmental regulations if reelected, says EPA chief - President Donald Trump will move to weaken more environmental regulations on industries if reelected in November, while work to complete Superfund cleanup projects, according to Environmental Protection Agency administrator Andrew Wheeler. The Trump administration in a second term would establish a cost-benefit analysis of any new regulation and expand the use of "science transparency" in order to justify the science behind implementing new regulations, Wheeler said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. The EPA also plans to continue working on cleanup efforts at Superfund sites that have gotten delayed. "We need to make sure we are speaking to people where they live and we're addressing the problems they see on a daily basis," Wheeler told the Journal. After three years in office, the Trump administration has moved to reverse more than 100 major climate and environmental rules that it has deemed burdensome to the fossil fuel industry, even as climate change accelerates and global greenhouse gas emissions rise. Analysts say many of the administration's rollbacks could increase emissions and lead to thousands of additional deaths from bad air quality. Among many rollbacks to rules that protect air, water and land, the administration repealed and replaced the Obama-era emissions rules for power plants and vehicles, weakened the country's landmark environmental law, cut protections for most of the country's wetlands and weakened regulations on methane, a potent climate-changing gas. Some of the rollbacks have been criticized by businesses they're meant to help, including some major oil and gas producers looking to reduce their carbon footprint. Many of the reversals also face legal challenges from environmental groups and states. As the November presidential election approaches, the Trump administration has worked quickly to finish some of its major regulatory goals, since some of the new rules could be reversed if Democrats win control of the White House and Congress.
Court for second time strikes down Trump admin rollback of automaker penalties tA court has for the second time struck down a Trump administration attempt to limit the penalties faced by automakers who do not meet mileage standards. A Monday ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit found there is “no ambiguity in the statute” that requires agencies to periodically increase penalties in order to keep track with inflation. The decision throws out a 2019 rule from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that sought to freeze penalties for automakers to levels not seen since the 1970s. The administration finalized the rule after the same court ruled it could not delay an increase in those penalties agreed to by Congress in 2015 under the Obama administration. “The statutory purpose of the Improvements Act is to adjust civil monetary penalties to keep pace with inflation,” the three-judge panel wrote in its decision, noting that inflation “can take the bite out of fines.” Penalties for automakers are charged for every tenth of a mile per gallon automakers exceed fuel economy standards, a figure that can prove substantial when applied across a company’s entire fleet of vehicles. The Trump administration rule would have frozen the penalty to $5.50 for every tenth of a mile per gallon rather than $14, cutting by almost two-thirds the fine automakers would be expected to pay. NHTSA said it would not comment on the lawsuit. “Once again, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has ruled that the Trump Administration cannot give away polluting passes to automakers who lag behind on meeting standards required by law,” the Sierra Club, which sued over the rule alongside other environmental groups and 13 states, wrote in a release.
Revived Iowa ethanol plant would make RNG to meet demand in California - A German bioenergy company is preparing to produce corn ethanol and renewable natural gas at the site of a failed cellulosic ethanol plant in Nevada, Iowa. Verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie AG is building an anaerobic digester on the site that will annually convert up to 100,000 tons of corn stover — a crop leftover consisting of everything but the kernel — into a renewable fuel that can be fed into the nation’s natural gas pipeline system. Verbio hopes to begin production by fall of 2021. The biogas, known as RNG, is more expensive to produce than conventional natural gas, but producers can turn a profit by selling credits to refineries and fuel suppliers in California, where a state low-carbon fuel standard requires annual reductions in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels. “In a facility we own in Germany, we make ethanol and then turn around and make renewable natural gas,” said Greg Northrup, president and chief executive officer of Verbio North America. “We are just taking what we do in Germany and bringing it here to the U.S.” Verbio purchased the facility in November 2018 from DuPont Industrial Biosciences, which operated the plant for less than two years. The German company expects initially to produce enough RNG to equal about 7 million gallons of gasoline. That will require between 75,000 and 100,000 tons of corn stover annually, which Northrup said is readily available within 50 miles of the plant. Plans call for expanding that to possibly the equivalent of 20 million gallons of gasoline. The other side of the operation, corn ethanol production, is likely to begin sometime in 2022, he said, topping out at 10 or 12 million gallons annually. The residue from ethanol production will be added to the corn stover to produce RNG. Northrup said it will be the first facility in this country to produce both ethanol and RNG, which he expects will be in demand. Oregon also has a low-carbon fuel standard, and other states including Minnesota, New York, and Washington are considering policies similar to California’s.
Rhode Island initiates vehicle charging station project - - The Rhode Island Department of Transportation (RIDOT) is offering motorists free access to electric vehicle chargers as part of an effort to encourage electric vehicle use on state roadways. The initiative to provide the chargers at two of the agency’s Park & Ride commuter lots is in accordance with the Rhode Island Office of Energy Resources (OER) and National Grid. The chargers will be available 24 hours a day, seven days a week off of I-95 at the Park & Ride on Route 117 at Exit 10 in Warwick and the Park & Ride on Route 3 (Main Street) at Exit 1 in Hopkinton, per officials, who indicated the service would be free until the end of the year. RIDOT and OER will evaluate usage patterns throughout the pilot program to help make decisions on deploying more charging stations. “Electric cars are becoming more common on our streets, and the commuter parking lots we own are a perfect test bench for us to evaluate the demand for this service,” RIDOT Director Peter Alviti, Jr. said. “There are a number of barriers to electric car adoption, among them concerns about range and access to fast, convenient charging stations. These stations help alleviate those concerns.”
How dangerous are burning electric cars? - There' s a loud bang, and then it starts: A battery module of an electric car is on fire in the Hagerbach test tunnel. A video of the test impressively shows the energy stored in such batteries: Meter-long flames hiss through the room and produce enormous amounts of thick, black soot. The visibility in the previously brightly lit tunnel section quickly approaches zero. After a few minutes, the battery module is completely burnt out. Ash and soot have spread throughout the room. The trial, which was funded by the Swiss Federal Roads Office (FEDRO) and in which several Empa researchers participated, took place in December 2019. The results have just been published. "In our experiment we were considering in particular private and public operators of small and large underground or multi-story car parks," says project leader Lars Derek Mellert of Amstein + Walthert Progress AG. "All these existing underground structures are being used to an increasing extent by electric cars. And the operators ask themselves: What to do if such a car catches fire? What are the health risks for my employees? What effects does such a fire have on the operation of my plant?" But until now there has been hardly any meaningful technical literature, let alone practical experience for such a case. With the support of battery researcher Marcel Held and corrosion specialist Martin Tuchschmid from Empa, Mellert developed three test scenarios. Experts from the Hagerbach AG test tunnel and the French Centre d'études des tunnels (CETU) in Bron were also involved. "We installed test surfaces in the fire tunnel on which the soot settled," explains Martin Tuchschmid, corrosion and fire damage specialist at Empa. "After the test, the surfaces were chemically analyzed and also stored in special rooms for several months to detect possible corrosion damage."
Groups say Boston electric grid upgrades should anticipate offshore wind -- The Mystic Generating Station, a natural gas-burning facility that is one of the largest plants in New England, is located in Everett, a small city across the Mystic River from Boston. It’s the only power plant in the metro area, which will completely rely on outside sources after Mystic’s scheduled shutdown in 2024. The question now is how to strengthen transmission so that the system can handle the added electron traffic into the city during times of high demand. ISO New England, the organization that oversees the region’s electric grid, put out a call for proposals to address the problem. The organization received 36 proposals; in the first round of assessment, it eliminated 35 of them from consideration for a range of reasons. What remained was a plan known as Ready Path put forward by a partnership between the state’s two major utilities, National Grid and Eversource. The project will upgrade equipment at existing substations owned by the utilities, so it is unlikely to be slowed down by permitting issues and should be completed by the time Mystic retires at the end of May 2024. With a price tag of $49 million, it also has the lowest estimated cost of all the proposals. “It will provide a complete reliability replacement to Mystic,” said Bill Quinlan, Eversource’s president of transmission. “It meets the need, it’s the lowest cost, and they have confidence it will be in place prior to Mystic’s retirement.” Not everyone, however, is convinced that the utilities’ straightforward, task-focused plan is the best choice for the environment or consumers. Some feel ISO New England should have used the procurement process to explore more ambitious approaches to preparing the grid for the future, particularly when it comes to offshore wind. Massachusetts has committed to developing at least 1,600 megawatts of offshore wind capacity, with another 1,600 megawatts likely to follow. Pending legislation could boost that number even higher. The grid will need upgrades to move all that power when those projects come online. With this long-term challenge in mind, transmission development company Anbaric submitted two proposals that aimed to both solve the reliability concerns caused by Mystic’s retirement and create a transmission circuit between Boston and Plymouth, a coastal town in southeastern Massachusetts, near the area offshore wind developments are planned. Anbaric’s plan would also prepare the transmission system to remain reliable upon the retirement of other fossil fuel-burning plants in the area, such as the Canal Generating Plant on Cape Cod,
Advocates say over 200 shovel-ready community solar projects await legislative action in Pennsylvania - There are at least 220 community solar projects in 41 counties across Pennsylvania ready to break ground, pending legislative action in Harrisburg, according to a new analysis by the PA Community Solar Economic Alliance, a local industry and advocacy group. The projects would serve an estimated 250,000 homes and businesses, including customers in every utility territory across the commonwealth.Community solar projects allow residents and business owners to sign up to purchase electricity from local solar installations, many of which are located on nearby farms. Subscribers then receive credit on their electricity bills for their share of the power produced, saving them money.Counties with five or more community solar projects that stand ready to come online include: Berks, Bucks, Centre, Chester, Columbia, Dauphin, Erie, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lycoming, Mercer, Monroe, Montgomery, Northumberland, Schuylkill, Wayne, Westmoreland and York.While 20 other states permit these types of programs, Pennsylvania’s utility laws don’t allow competition and currently block community solar projects. HB531 and SB705, which are being sponsored by Representative Aaron Kaufer in the state House of Representatives and Senator Mario Scavello in the Senate, respectively, would change utility law to permit Pennsylvania businesses and families to sign up for community solar projects if it’s right for them, regardless of their income level or if they own their home. There is no cost to taxpayers.
Student-led initiative puts Pennsylvania school district on 100% renewable path – pv magazine USA - A group of students in Radnor Township, Pennsylvania have successfully petitioned their school district to set a goal of transitioning to 100% clean, renewable electricity by 2030. All other energy needs, including heating, cooking, cooling, and transportation, will be electrified and renewably powered by 2040. This makes Radnor the first school district in Pennsylvania to pass a resolution with the goal of transitioning to 100% renewable energy and a zero emission school bus fleet. “Being a student leader for this initiative has been a very special experience; it’s given me a chance to connect with my community and involve Radnor in a national and global shift towards sustainability,” said student leader Becca Zajac in a release touting the resolution. “I am extremely grateful that our school board recognizes the urgency of fighting the climate crisis, especially through these challenging times. By reducing our greenhouse emissions and adopting the goal of 100% clean energy and transportation, Radnor School District is leading by example. I have never been more proud. Climate Students from every grade are honored to have a longstanding impact on where we’ve grown up. I look forward to continuing this journey in the implementation stage and collaborating with district leaders to create a better school community for all future Radnor students.”
Rooftop solar in Indiana worth 13¢/kWh, not 3¢/kWh, says expert witness – A high level of distributed solar in Indiana would reduce utility costs by up to $540 million per year, a national lab has found. Fair compensation for rooftop solar power in southern Indiana would be 13¢/kWh, an expert calculated—not the 3¢/kWh proposed by a utility.To figure the fair compensation for customers providing solar power to the grid, start with the average price that customers pay for power, testified Edward Rutter in an Indiana rate case. Then subtract the fair share of the cost of the distribution grid that’s used to move the solar power. The resulting value is 13¢/kWh for residential solar generation in the southern Indiana region served by Vectren, he calculated, compared to the 3¢/kWh that Vectren proposes to pay. Rutter, a former accountant, recently served as chief technical advisor with the Indiana state agency that represents ratepayer interests. The Indiana Distributed Energy Alliance sponsored his testimony. Vectren is the first of five Indiana utilities to propose new rates for distributed solar generation, under a 2017 state law that calls for replacing net metering compensation, says an Alliance statement.
ENERGY TRANSITIONS: Big Oil, meet Big Green -- Tuesday, August 25, 2020 -- "Supermajor" has long been the term used to describe the world's largest oil companies. Increasingly, it is coming to define the globe's biggest producers of wind and solar power.Large-scale renewable energy developers now boast valuations greater than the behemoths of the oil and gas industry.NextEra Energy Inc., a Florida-based power company and the world's largest generator of wind and solar electricity, is now worth $138 billion. That's more than the likes of Royal Dutch Shell PLC ($112 billion), BP PLC ($71 billion) and ConocoPhillips ($40.1 billion).Iberdrola SA, the Spanish renewable titan, is valued at $78 billion. And Ørsted A/S, once a tiny Danish utility, has been transformed into a global offshore wind juggernaut worth $58 billion.The role reversal is a reflection of the times. Oil stocks have been battered by the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting drop-off in demand. BP and Shell have been forced to write down their assets by $17.5 billion and $22 billion, respectively, as a result of low oil prices. And Exxon Mobil Corp., one of the world's largest oil companies, was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday, a symbol of the industry's sharp economic fall.Many of the world's oil reserves simply aren't profitable when crude is trading for $45 a barrel.Sky-high valuations for renewable developers also speak to wider changes in energy markets. Some analysts are predicting the world may soon see a peak in demand for oil (Climatewire, May 7).Wind and solar are being propelled forward by a combination of falling costs and government climate targets. That has made renewable energy projects increasingly attractive to investors.
Solar Panels Are Starting to Die. Will We be Able to Recycle the E-Waste? Solar photovoltaic (PV) panels convert sunlight into energy and continue to play an essential role in the fight to stop the climate crisis. As the pioneering panels of the early 2000s near the end of their 30-year electronic lives, however, they are at risk of becoming the world's next big wave of e-waste. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), a leading energy agency, projected that up to 78 million metric tons of solar panels will have reached the end of their life by 2050, resulting in about 6 million metric tons of new solar e-waste annually, reported Grist. The IRENA report noted that since their debut, solar PV deployment has grown at "unprecedented rates," with global installed PV capacity reaching 222 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2015, with projections rising to 4,500 GW by 2050. Earth911 reported that solar is the fastest-growing energy source in the world. According to recent research, wind and solar renewable energy technologies will soon be cheaper than coal globally. This will drive even further deployment of solar panels. The United States, China, India, Japan and Germany have planned for "particularly high" deployment, the IRENA report said. As the global PV market continues to expand, so too will the e-waste we can expect when the panels are decommissioned. IRENA also analyzed the potential upside and value creation of proper end-of-life management of PV panels. It noted that proper management could help shift the world to sustainable long-term development. By 2030 and 2050, respectively, the report projected:
Mining needed for renewable energy 'could harm biodiversity' --The mining necessary for producing renewable energy could exacerbate threats to biodiversity, researchers have found.The production of renewable energy requires metals and other materials which are mined. Researchers mapped the areas around more than 60,000 mining properties to assess whether they overlapped with biodiversity conservation sites.The scientists found mining potentially influences 50m sq km of the Earth’s land surface, and that 82% of mining areas produce materials used in renewable energy production. Furthermore, they found 8% of these mining areas overlapped with regions designated as protected areas, 7% with key biodiversity areas, and 16% withremaining wilderness.Mining areas that produce these materials and overlap with protected areas and remaining wilderness also contain a greater density of mines compared with the overlapping mining areas that target other materials.Dr Laura Sonter, the lead author of the study published in the journal Nature Communications, said switching from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy was critical for mitigating against climate breakdown, but that producing the required infrastructure would mean mining a lot more metals and other materials.She said: “We already know that mining causes widespread habitat loss for many species, but our study was the first to illustrate the areas that may become increasingly threatened under a ‘green’ future. Specifically, we mapped areas that contain materials needed for renewable energy production and showed that many of these places occur within or nearby currently protected areas or sites identified as future conservation priorities.”
Kill the ‘zombie’: Springfield demonstration calls for end to biomass proposal after decade-long battle - — More than 75 people gathered on the steps of City Hall on Thursday calling for an end to a long-proposed biomass project in East Springfield, saying it is a threat to public health and an environmental hazard. Some of those speaking used he phrase “we can’t breathe” in expressing their strong opposition to the wood-to-energy plant proposed by Palmer Renewable Energy LLC at 1000 Page Blvd. Verne McArthur, of the Springfield Climate Justice Coalition, led the activists and residents in chants against the biomass project, including, “We will, we will, block you, block you.” “This event is about the zombie project — this biomass plant that Palmer Renewable wants to build and keeps pulling political strings to get loopholes to go do it,” McArthur said. “We’ve been fighting it for 10 years and they’re now trying to come back.” There is a climate bill before the state Legislature, in conference committee, that includes one proposed clause that would list biomass energy plants as “non-emitting sources” — a designation that would help the developers receive subsidies, opponents said. Ten city councilors have urged legislators to reject the clause, and there is also a signature petition. The demonstration occurred after a recent council subcommittee meeting in which the city’s building commissioner, Steven Desilets, said the biomass building permit remains valid despite being initially approved in 2011 and later extended.Palmer Renewable Energy plans a $150 million, 35-megawatt plant to convert green wood to energy. It obtained a special permit for the project 12 years ago, and has prevailed each time the project was challenged in court.
The gas industry’s survival plan: Make fuel from cow poop - Polly is a 10-year-old black-and-white Holstein cow, the oldest in a herd of about 300 on the Bar-Way Farm in Deerfield, Mass. Together they produce 2,000 gallons of milk each day. They also make enough poop to fill about two garbage trucks. In 2014, Bar-Way began working with Vanguard Renewables to install a biodigester, which uses specialized bacteria to convert organic material—for example, cow poop—into biogas, a versatile fuel. Once it’s purified, this biomethane, also known as renewable natural gas (RNG), is chemically identical to the main ingredient in the fossil-based natural gas that comes out of your stove or heats your water. Bovine waste is typically stored in vast open lagoons that emit methane—a greenhouse gas more than 80 times as potent as carbon dioxide over 20 years— making agricultural waste the single biggest contributor to the country’s total methane emissions from human activity. Both biogas and fossil natural gas are mostly methane, and though they burn more cleanly than the megapolluter coal, they still emit carbon dioxide. But by diverting cow poop into biodigesters in the process of making RNG, gas companies argue, the effect is a net climate win. Virginia-based utility giant Dominion Energy Inc. claims that supplying only 4% of its customers with biogas would be enough to offset the emission from its entire gas system. That’s the type of math that irks Matt Vespa, an attorney for the nonprofit climate litigation group Earthjustice. “Just 4% of the gas needs to be renewable gas, and then all of the sudden you have 100% clean energy,” he says, “requires some shoddy assumptions”—for instance, that all the methane coming out of all those lagoons is inevitable in factory farming. But there are plenty of other ways to solve this problem that don’t extend our reliance on polluting fuels, Vespa says. Earthjustice is far from the only climate organization ringing the alarm bells about RNG. Mark Kresowik, a deputy director of the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign, says RNG is a costly distraction that will only slow the energy industry’s transition away from hydrocarbons. (The Sierra Club has received funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies, the charitable organization created by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder and owner of Bloomberg News parent company Bloomberg LP.) “This is the last gasp of the gas industry. They know that electrification is superior,” Kresowik says. “If you go down that dead-end route, it increases the cost to consumers in the long run.” That said, getting rid of gas won’t be easy. It’s enjoyed unprecedented growth over the past decade as the boom in shale oil and gas production made costs plummet. Today gas accounts for about a third of America’s total energy consumption, and it’s projected to rise to 40% this year, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show.
Gov. Justice clarifies remarks regarding Brooke County Power plant project - Justice said Monday that he asked the West Virginia Economic Development Authority to take another look at the request by the Energy Solutions Consortium Brooke County Power project for a $5.6 million loan guarantee for the natural gas-power electric plant. “My position is just this … I’ve directed (Commerce Department Secretary Ed Gaunch) to have the West Virginia Economic Development Authority to review their application again,” Justice said.“I’m going to go with Economic Development Authority’s decision upon their review.” The merchant power plant wouldn’t serve residential customers. Instead, it would sell power to PJM Interconnection’s 13-state wholesale energy market once completed. According to the website for the project, the construction of the plant would create 1,164 direct and indirect jobs and 30 full-time jobs once completed, and provide a $1.25 billion economic impact during the construction phase and $440 million economic impact annually to Brooke County and the surrounding area. Despite Justice’s commitment to letting the Economic Development Authority decide on the loan guarantee for the project, the governor still had a number of concerns about the viability of the project. Justice said he is concerned that the project doesn’t have the funding to complete the plant, which would leave the state holding the bag for the $5.6 million loan. He also expressed doubts in the viability of the project.“From the state guaranteeing something that looks to me like they’ve been trying to raise these dollars for eight or nine years. Very frankly, I have very serious doubts that will ever happen,”Justice said. “Before somebody comes to us and starts asking for money, at least we should have some level of assurance that the business is viable and the thing is going to truly happen.”Justice said he wants the project to guarantee to hire 75 percent of the construction workforce for the project from West Virginia, as well as most of the sub-contractors.
CAMPAIGN 2020: Trump's 2nd term energy plan? 'Continue what we're doing' -- Friday, August 28, 2020 -- On the 2016 campaign trail, then-presidential hopeful Donald Trump embraced coal, oil and gas and pledged an era of U.S. energy dominance with fossil fuels taking center stage. That pitch has been muted by the rise in renewables, an oil crash and a pandemic barring the president from the campaign events that hallmarked his first run. So what's Trump's second-term energy agenda? Fossil fuels remain a big deal for the president, who lambasted Democratic nominee Joe Biden at the Republican National Convention on Monday night for his plan to ban hydraulic fracturing on federal land. But the White House has offered few details on the president's overall energy game plans. "I think it would be, I think it would be very, very, I think we'd have a very, very solid, we would continue what we're doing," Trump told The New York Times in a story published yesterday. "We'd solidify what we've done and we have other things on our plate that we want to get done." While it's not unusual for an incumbent to be tight-lipped on second-term details when big-ticket items have already been punched, Trump has struggled to articulate what he'd like to do in the next four years, and the Republican Party scrapped a 2020 convention platform, saying only that it would "continue to enthusiastically support the president's America-first agenda." Since his first term focused on trashing Obama-era regulations, the next four years would likely be focused on defending policy changes and regulatory overhauls in court. He would continue his push to get the United States out of the Paris climate change accord, but if there's a Trump plan to address climate, it didn't come up during the four convention nights. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said the United States under Trump would seek to "maintain our posture as the No. 1 producer of oil and gas." He didn't offer new initiatives but said the nation would include building more oil and gas pipelines and export facilities. "We need to continue to build out infrastructure," Brouillette said of the next four years in a Bloomberg TV interview. More of the same seems to be the central ticket item, but that leaves a lot of potential for a second term, said Mike McKenna, a former Trump energy adviser who briefly led the president's transition team at the Department of Energy.
EPA finalizes rollback of coal plant wastewater regulations - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has finalized a rollback of wastewater regulations from coal-fired power plants, a move critics say will allow dangerous substances including arsenic and mercury to leach into waterways.The finalized rule loosens requirements for treating discharges of toxic pollution from power plants that were set by the Obama administration in 2015. It also delays the implementation of the requirements and exempts several plants.The Obama EPA estimated that its requirements would annually reduce “the amount of toxic metals, nutrients, and other pollutants that steam electric power plants are allowed to discharge by 1.4 billion pounds.”A senior Trump EPA official told reporters on Monday that the new version of the rule is expected to save the power sector $140 million annually and reduce pollution by a million pounds per year compared to the 2015 rule. “Newer, more affordable pollution control technologies and flexibility on the regulation’s phase-in will reduce pollution and save jobs at the same time,” EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a statement.However, Betsy Southerland, who served as director of the Office of Science and Technology at the EPA’s Office of Water under the Obama administration, said that this calculation is flawed because it assumes that a certain number of facilities will voluntarily adopt more stringent standards.“They only listen to industry, they never listen to public health specialists or environmentalists so it must be that these people told them they didn’t want it required, so that doesn’t bode well for them just voluntarily deciding to do it on their own, but it allows the EPA ... to argue that their less stringent treatment option has a bigger reduction of toxics than the Obama rule,” Southerland said. She suggested that this voluntary option, known as membrane filtration, should have been what the EPA required. The rule, first proposed last year, weakens the regulations from dealing with residue from burning coal, called coal ash, and residue that’s rinsed off smokestack filters. Both of these types of waste are often mixed with water and stored in large pits that can leak into groundwater or be released into waterways. In addition to weakening treatment requirements, the rule also gives power plants two additional years to implement the regulations. Read more of the details here.
EPA Eases Coal-Ash and Wastewater Disposal Rules – WSJ - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Monday completed a set of new guidelines for disposing of coal ash and wastewater from coal-fired power plants, changes that critics say could allow more pollutants into the nation’s waterways. The rules, which ease stricter guidelines set by the Obama administration in 2015, apply to coal ash, a common byproduct of burning coal for power that can contain lead, arsenic, mercury and other toxic pollutants. Some of it is used to make cement and other products, but much of it gets dumped into ponds and landfills from which it can leach into groundwater. The guidelines establish new compliance dates, as well as changes in wastewater-treatment rules. A senior EPA official said the new rules will save the U.S. power sector roughly $140 million a year by reducing compliance costs and other measures. The revisions have been in the works since 2017 and mark the latest push in the Trump administration’s deregulatory agenda at the request of the U.S. energy sector. Power utilities had asked for the relief, with one trade group estimating that the 2015 rules would have led to the closings of dozens of coal-ash dumps at a cost of $23 billion to $35 billion over 20 years. “Newer, more affordable pollution control technologies and flexibility on the regulation’s phase-in will reduce pollution and save jobs at the same time,” EPA administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a written statement. The Obama administration rules, which marked the first federal coal-ash standards, came in response to a dam break at a large ash pond in Tennessee in 2008 that destroyed homes, released 1.1 billion gallons of wet waste into two rivers and covered about 300 acres with toxic sludge. The spill occurred after a dike failed at a pond holding waste from the utility’s coal-burning power plant. Environmentalists have criticized moves to roll back tough rules on coal ash and wastewater from power plants, saying any leniency risks polluting groundwater. On Monday, Mary Anne Hitt, a Sierra Club national director, said President Trump and Mr. Wheeler are “putting power plant industry profits before the public’s health” with the new rules. “Today’s rule, and every effort to undermine bedrock clean water protections, will undoubtedly jeopardize our waters and our communities, and if Wheeler’s other rollbacks are any indication, it will not help coal workers or their communities,” she said in a written statement. “Communities historically tied to the coal industry need help transitioning, not polluted air and water.”
WATER POLLUTION: EPA eases limits on coal plants' toxic discharges -- - EPA is relaxing Obama-era regulations for wastewater coming from coal-fired power plants, discharges that can contain high levels of toxic chemicals like mercury, arsenic, nitrogen and selenium.The agency issued a final rule today, rolling back 2015 standards that represented the first time in more than 30 years the federal government had acted to curb the toxics and other pollutants that power plants release into nearby waterways.The final rule, known as the Effluent Limitations Guidelines (ELGs), is similar to one proposed last fall but would further extend the timeline for plants to comply. And coal facilities closing, repowering or switching to natural gas by 2028 are exempt. A senior EPA administration official on call today touted the rule as another example of President Trump's dedication to "American energy independence" and said the final changes will save $140 million annually while reducing 1 million pounds of pollution per year over the 2015 rule, despite relaxation of the timelines for compliance.The official said the earliest a plant will need to comply is one year from the rule's publication in the Federal Register, and 2025 for best available technology. The official said EPA's revisions unveiled today will apply to wastewater generated at coal-fired power plants when sulfur dioxide is removed from the facilities' emissions, as well as water used to flush the bottom ash out of plants and into coal ash pits. Compared with the 2015 rule, EPA's proposal would have allowed significant increases of selenium that enters waterways in discharges of wastewater that came from cleaning power plants' air filters (Greenwire, Nov. 4, 2019). It would set a daily maximum limit on selenium at 76 micrograms per liter — or more than three times the Obama-era limit of 23 micrograms per liter. The monthly average treatment in the new rule is 31 micrograms per liter, compared with 12 micrograms per liter in the Obama-era rule. The rule also includes loopholes for power plants to be exempted from even the higher selenium limits. The Trump rule would allow power plants to use a shorter biological treatment process, which would result in the higher selenium levels. But many plants have been exempted from using the biological treatment process at all, allowing their mercury, arsenic and nitrogen levels to increase significantly. Power plants with "high flows" of wastewater and coal power plants that are used only during peak power demand are exempted from the biological treatment requirement entirely. Those plants are allowed to release nearly 10 times as much mercury — 788 micrograms per liter daily — as plants that are not exempted from the treatment requirement, which are limited to 85 micrograms per liter daily. The rule gives power plants until the end of 2025 to comply with the new rules but also says EPA would establish a voluntary incentive program whereby power plants would have until 2028 to comply if they decide to include more biological treatment.The Trump rule also makes changes to new requirements the Obama administration set on water used to flush plants of waste left over when coal is burned, known as bottom ash. Under the rule, plants that are retiring by 2028 do not have to treat their wastewater or dry dispose of their bottom ash.
Trump Admin Weakens Obama-Era Rule to Limit Toxic Waste From Coal Plants - The Trump administration announced that it would roll back a rule from 2015 that was put in place to limit the amount of toxic chemicals that are in the wastewater of coal plants, according to The Washington Post.The rule insisted that coal plants invest in newer technologies to treat their wastewater so toxic heavy metals like lead, selenium and arsenic are not leached into nearby rivers and streams where they can damage fragile ecosystems and also seep into drinking water, as The Washington Post reported.The new regulations put forth by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which is run by Andrew Wheeler, a former lobbyist for the coal industry, allows coal plants to dial back their investment in new technologies; the regulations delay the date that plants needed to be in compliance, and they exempt some coal-fired plants from taking any corrective or pollution-limiting action, according to The New York Times.The compliance date is pushed back to 2025 for some plants. The ones exempted from the rule are done so with the expectation that they will be retired by 2028.The "effluent limitations" regulations that the EPA rolled out Monday will save the coal industry $140 million, according to Reuters."Newer, more affordable pollution control technologies and flexibility on the regulation's phase-in will reduce pollution and save jobs at the same time," said Wheeler, as Reuters reports.The Obama administration had said that the 2015 rule would limit 1.4 billion pounds of toxic pollutants from entering U.S. waterways each year. Coal plants use scrubbers to capture mercury, sulfur dioxide and heavy metals that would be emitted through smoke stacks. That rule has been in place since the 1980s, but what to do with those trapped pollutants is a thorny issue. Coal plants had been allowed to dump them into nearby waterways until the 2015 rule took effect, according to The New York Times.And yet, without evidence, the current EPA said it expects the same or even greater pollution reductions because coal plants will supposedly adopt the newer technologies voluntarily. The EPA's math is based on the assumption that 30 percent of coal plants will implement technologies that are beyond the regulations required by the EPA, according to The Guardian.
For now, latest federal rollback of coal regs won’t affect PA plants - A Trump administration rollback of rules for toxic waste water from coal plants won’t have an immediate effect on coal-fired power plants in Pennsylvania, because the state has already adopted tougher Obama-era EPA standards for treating the waste. But environmental advocates said the move could open up the possibility that coal plants could seek to release higher levels of pollutants into the state’s rivers and streams that provide drinking water for millions of people. The new rules, finalized by EPA this week, would exempt coal plants that run at lower capacity or are in their final years of service from having to comply with tougher standards adopted by the agency in 2015. In addition, it allows plants to use less expensive technology to clean up wastewater from smokestack scrubbers that remove air pollutants, and allows some treated coal ash slurry to be released into rivers and streams. It also pushes compliance for most plants back to 2025. The EPA says the rule changes would reduce costs for the coal power plant industry by $140 million a year. The power industry sought the changes to the 2015 rule, which the agency said at the time would keep 1.4 billion pounds of pollution out of rivers and streams. “The revisions provide environmental protections in a technologically and economically achievable manner, which is critical to EEI member companies’ ability to continue providing reliable, affordable, and clean energy to U.S. homes and businesses,” said Quin Shea, vice president for environment, natural resources, and occupational safety & health at the Edison Electric Institute (EEI), one of the industry groups that lobbied EPA for the changes. But environmental groups worry the rule will allow coal pollution to continue for years in the U.S. “This is a very significant rollback of the protections the Obama administration put in place,” said Zachary Fabish, an attorney with the Sierra Club. “The Obama rule, as good as it was, was long overdue. And this rule just weakens and delays it even further.” The wastewater regulated by the rule comes from scrubbers put on coal smokestacks to comply with federal clean air regulations, and from coal slurry used to transport coal ash to disposal ponds. Both contain some of the same toxic materials: mercury, arsenic, and selenium. The wastewater also contains bromides, a kind of salt that can create carcinogenic compounds in drinking-water plants.
Cleanup worker's wife cautions: Be wary of coal ash from Bull Run - A recent Zoom meeting of the community group Bull Run Neighbors pulled together local politicians, Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation assistant commissioner Chuck Head, reporters, members of environmental organizations and Oak Ridge, Claxton, Powell and Knoxville residents with questions about the Bull Run Fossil Plant’s future and that of its stored coal ash. For one participant, Powell resident Julie Bledsoe, the issues are personal. She said her husband, Ron Bledsoe, and brother-in-law Doug Bledsoe worked for TVA contractor Jacobs Engineering Group in cleaning up the 2008 coal ash spill at Kingston Fossil Plant. She said their health suffered due to the exposure. That spill occurred on Dec. 22, 2008. As reported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on its website, a dike failed and about 5.4 million cubic yards of coal ash fell into Swan Pond embayment and the Emory River channel. Doug Bledsoe died Aug. 12, just one day before the online meeting. Julie Bledsoe attributed her brother-in-law's death to his exposure to toxic substances during the coal ash cleanup. After leaving the cleanup project, he received diagnoses of brain and lung cancer, the Knoxville News-Sentinel has reported. Julie Bledsoe said Jacobs Engineering Group did not give the workers respiratory protection, “because they did not want to alarm the community.” Her husband Ron, which the News-Sentinel reports as having suffered a mild stroke since leaving the cleanup and has been diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, is involved in a lawsuit against Jacobs Engineering Group. Attorney Theane Evangelis, a partner at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP, gave a response to Julie Bledsoe's comments when contacted by the newspaper. “Numerous safety measures were implemented at Kingston, as required by the safety plan approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and TVA. Depending on their specific responsibilities, the safety plan either required workers to wear respiratory protection or permitted workers to wear respiratory protection with the necessary medical clearance,” Evangelis stated in an email to The Oak Ridger. Evangelis represents Jacobs Engineering Group in the lawsuit.
Who will use Coal Creek Station’s massive transmission line? --Nearly five months after Great River Energy announced it plans to close Coal Creek Station, it’s unknown who will make use of the transmission line that extends from the power plant to Minnesota.The high-voltage direct current line, which underwent a $130 million upgrade in recent years, is a major piece of infrastructure on par with the scale of the Dakota Access Pipeline, said John Weeda, director of the North Dakota Transmission Authority, which is an arm of the state’s Industrial Commission.The line was first built 40 years ago. In 2019, 43% of the electricity exported from North Dakota went across its wires. The latest development occurred in early August when commissioners in McLean County, where Coal Creek is located, enacted a two-year moratorium on solar farms. That follows a similar moratorium in neighboring Mercer County on applications for wind farm permits, as well as McLean’s decision in March to enact zoning restrictions on wind farms and their power lines.Great River Energy, meanwhile, has identified three scenarios for how the line could be operated in the future. The Minnesota-based power cooperative could continue to own it and allow a variety of generation facilities to connect to it, including Coal Creek if a new owner emerges, wind farms, solar farms or other sources of electricity. The co-op is also considering turning over control of the power line to the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which oversees the power grid in the middle of the country, including in parts of North Dakota. GRE, lastly, could sell the power line and Coal Creek. When the co-opannounced in May that it planned to close the plant in 2022, the co-op said it had essentially sought to give the facility away rather than shutter it, but it couldn’t find another company interested in operating it. The facility has run at a loss amid market challenges, as it faces competition from natural gas and renewable energy.
Exelon to pay up to $500 million for Byron cleanup if nuke closes --- Exelon will have a price to pay if it closes its Dresden and Byron nuclear plants, as it warned last week it would do without state subsidies.In the case of Byron, the funds set aside for eventual cleanup and restoration of the site near Rockford aren’t sufficient, the company disclosed in an Aug. 27 Securities & Exchange Commission filing. Exelon is estimating it will need to provide up to $500 million in support to Byron funds if the plant shuts down next year, as the company plans. About $325 million could come initially in a guarantee by the corporate parent ofExelon Generation, the unit that owns the plants. In addition, the company may have to pay up to $175 million in cash over 10 years.The amounts—and how they’re furnished—will depend on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission once Exelon files its plans for decommissioning, the nuclear industry’s term for safeguarding the radioactive waste and contaminated equipment on-site, as well as restoring the land.Exelon says the funds for Dresden, a far older nuke than Byron, are sufficient using NRC standards. In addition, Exelon will record one-time cash expenditures totaling $100 million to $175 million over the next several years to cover employee-related costs stemming from the plant closures.
Santee Cooper finalizes settlement over leftover material at failed SC nuclear project - Santee Cooper may finally be able to recover some of the money it dumped into two unfinished nuclear reactors in South Carolina. The board of the Moncks Corner power provider finalized a settlement this weekend with Westinghouse Electric that will enable the state-run utility to sell off leftover parts and materials from the failed expansion of the V.C. Summer project. The settlement, which has been in the works for months, requires Santee Cooper and Westinghouse to split the profits from any remaining equipment that could be used on another site. The two companies will evenly split the profits on the most expensive components that are still being warehoused at the V.C. Summer Nuclear Station, but Santee Cooper will get 90 percent of the profits on the other major components that were already welded, bolted or cemented into place. The proceeds from any remaining nuclear equipment will also be divided up, with Santee Cooper getting 67 percent and Westinghouse netting the rest. Meanwhile, Santee Cooper will keep all of the profits from the non-nuclear parts and material being stored on the property.
Georgia Power: Plant Vogtle expansion still on schedule - - – The Plant Vogtle nuclear expansion project remains on schedule, Georgia Power Co. reported in a filing with the state Public Service Commission (PSC) this week. The construction of two additional nuclear reactors at the site south of Augusta is about 87% complete, according to the latest progress update the Atlanta-based utility submits to the PSC every six months. The first of the two new units is scheduled to go into service in November of next year followed by the second unit one year later. In the report, Georgia Power asks the commission to verify and approve $701 million in capital costs incurred during the first half of this year. While the completion schedule hasn’t slipped, the coronavirus pandemic is affecting the pace of the work. As of the end of last month, 800 workers at the site had tested positive for COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic.
Some U.S. cities turn against first planned small-scale nuclear plant - (Reuters) - The first U.S. small-scale nuclear power project, grappling with cost overruns and delays, faces another challenge: the defection of cities that had committed to buying its power. The more than 30 members of the public power consortium Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) have until Sept. 30 to decide whether to stick with the project and devote more funds to NuScale Power LLC’s first-of-a-kind reactor. But two cities, Logan and Lehi, Utah have walked away from the project, and a third is now considering dropping its support because of risks and a lack of backers, according to officials. Allen Johnson, the power department director for Bountiful, Utah, said chances are greater than 50-50 it will withdraw. “You’ve got to have enough people to support it and some of the players I thought would be interested are not,” he said. The defections are bad news for U.S. efforts to develop modular nuclear energy, which is regarded by some as a critical carbon-free technology that power grids will need to supplement intermittent sources like wind and solar. Combined, cities have so far committed to buying just under 200 megawatts of the plant’s planned 720 megawatts of power. The U.S. Department of Energy has pumped more the $280 million into the project since 2013, and is expected to commit another $1.4 billion over the next nine years. The department did not respond to requests for comment. UAMPS spokesman LaVarr Webb said “the project is very much alive” noting that just two of 35 cities have officially left.
Illinois Faces (Another) Nuclear Power Standoff - Illinois is up against what one observer calls a "nuclear hostage crisis": The energy company Exelon says it will close two struggling nuclear power plants unless the state provides subsidies. If this sounds familiar, it's because something very similar happened in Illinois about five years ago, leading to a 2016 state law that subsidized two other Exelon nuclear plants in the state—a law now tainted by a still-unfolding bribery scandal. Despite all the reasons to tell Exelon to take a hike, some consumer and environmental advocates say there is a strong case for keeping the plants open because they are an important source of carbon-free electricity. This ties into the larger, often acrimonious debate about the role of nuclear power in the transition away from fossil fuels. "It makes sense to us that people want to punish Exelon," said David Kolata, executive director of the Citizens Utility Board in Chicago. "But you have to be careful not to punish consumers and the environment too. That's what makes it a much more thorny issue." Exelon said last week that it would close the Byron and Dresden nuclear plants in 2021, but "will continue our dialogue with policymakers on ways to prevent these closures."If the Byron and Dresden plants close, fossil fuels probably would fill much of the void, leading to an increase in carbon emissions, the company said. This would be a major setback in the state's push to move away from fossil fuels.Exelon owns all six nuclear plants in Illinois. This includes the two that would close in 2021, two (the Braidwood and LaSalle plants) that the company says are at risk of closing for financial reasons but are not yet scheduled to close and two (the Quad Cities and Clinton plants) that are subsidized by the 2016 law. The six plants produced 54 percent of the electricity generated in the state last year. Coal is a distant second with 27 percent, followed by natural gas with 10 percent.
Campus pursuing nuclear options - — University of Illinois researchers are hoping to bring a micronuclear reactor to campus, which could be used to help heat buildings and reduce the campus’ dependence on fossil fuels. To prepare the campus and the community for the possibility, the UI’s Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment is hosting a virtual conversation at 4:30 p.m. Sept. 10 with sustainability leaders, the executive director of Facilities & Services and nuclear engineering faculty. “Technology has come a long way since 1960, and so have nuclear reactors,” nuclear researcher Caleb Brooks said. “We’d like to have the opportunity to share with folks about these new systems, about how we could see them helping to meet our carbon production goals on campus, which we’re committed to carbon neutrality by 2050. This would go a long way to helping achieve that.” The UI has joined a reactor company on a bid for a microreactor from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy, Brooks said. “If successful, we would have a large investment from the federal government to see that purchased system built,” he said. Microreactors are the smallest of three classifications of nuclear reactors, Brooks said: traditional, large-scale reactors that produce around 3,000 megawatts of energy; small, modular reactors in the 60 to 300 megawatt range and microreactors, which typically produce less than 20 megawatts. Microreactors “are designed to be very small, so they can be built in a factory and tested, and then shipped complete on a truck,” Brooks said. “They can be put down at site where needed, without any major construction, and they can be pretty easily connected to the electric grid or whatever need the reactor is used for.” While the exact location would need approval from federal and state regulators, Brooks said it would make sense to be located near the Abbott power plant and be used to produce steam that would heat campus buildings.
Duke Energy’s Epic Fails: $11.6 Billion in Scrapped Projects Since 2013 -In July, Duke Energy and Dominion Energy canceled the $8 billion Atlantic Coast Pipeline. Six months earlier, Duke and three partners canceled the $1 billion Constitution Pipeline. These surprising decisions – made shortly after both ventures seemed assured of going forward – sent shock waves through the industry, with Dominion selling off much of its natural gas infrastructure, even as Duke clings to its plans to spend billions on more projects to supply gas for electricity generation.But maybe the pipelines’ failures shouldn’t have been so surprising.Since 2013, Duke and its partners have pulled the plug on an estimated $11.6 billion of failed projects. EWG’s analysis estimates that Duke’s share of losses from those failures is more than $4.3 billion.1 That’s not counting the $3.5 billion cost – $2 billion more than projected – of its coal-to-gas plant in Edwardsport, Ind., which has been plagued by scandal and failed to deliver affordable and efficient electricity.Such staggering losses and overruns could send a company’s finances reeling. But Duke – the nation’s largest investor-owned electric utility, headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. – has continued to reap record profits, in part because its government-protected monopoly status allows it to pass on to ratepayers much of the costs of its failures.In June, Indiana regulators ruled that Duke could permanently add charges to customers’ bills to cover three-fourths of the cost of the Edwardsport boondoggle, or $2.6 billion. Regulators in other states in Duke’s vast service territory have allowed the company to stick ratepayers with an additional $2.6 billion for other failed plants. For decades, Duke customers will be paying for these mistakes:
- Edwardsport Coal Gasification Plant, Indiana: $2.6 billion
- Crystal River Nuclear Plant, Florida: $1.3 billion
- Levy Nuclear Plant, Florida: $800 million
- Lee Nuclear Station, South Carolina: $517 million
North Carolina customers are also paying $787 million to clean up Duke’s toxic coal ash pits, and this month, Duke will ask regulators to let it charge customers $8 billion more to finish the cleanup.The Atlantic Coast Pipeline was only 6 percent complete when aborted. If it had gone online, Duke and Dominion could have sought approval to pass on the cost to customers in Virginia and the Carolinas. Duke had spent $1.6 billion on the pipeline before soaring costs and protracted legal battles killed it. But Duke’s finances won’t suffer much.
Coal Company Murray Energy Poised to Exit Bankruptcy -- Murray Energy, the nation’s largest private coal company, is poised to leave bankruptcy under the ownership of its senior lenders after shedding billions of dollars in retiree and health-care liabilities and striking deals with key creditors to fund the business. Judge John E. Hoffman Jr. of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Columbus, Ohio, said Monday he would confirm Murray’s chapter 11 reorganization plan, which outlines a financial restructuring that company management and top lenders said will preserve thousands of jobs...
Majority of Ohio voters support repeal of House Bill 6, poll says - — During these highly polarized times, one thing Ohioans on both sides of the aisle seem to agree on is the repeal of House Bill 6. In July, former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four others were charged in a $60 million bribery and racketeering scheme related to passage of the 2019 bill. Miranda Leppla, vice president of energy policy at the Ohio Environmental Council, said HB 6 gutted the state's clean-energy and efficiency standards and provided a $1.3 billion nuclear and coal bailout. "It needs to be repealed now, and we need to have an honest conversation, without bribery allegations, about what Ohioans need for an energy future," Leppla said. A recent poll found 64 percent of Ohio voters oppose HB 6 and want it repealed. Tyler Duvelius, executive director of the Ohio Conservative Energy Forum, said anything short of that isn't justice. "We couldn't agree more with Senate President Larry Obhof when he said it's time for us just to rip it up and start over again," Duvelius said. There are rumors that legislators in both House and Senate will possibly act on legislation — HB 738 and SB 346 — to repeal HB 6 this week. On Friday, state Reps. Michael O’Brien, D-Warren, and Michael Skindell, D-Lakewood, announced they would file a discharge petition to bring bipartisan legislation to repeal HB 6 to the floor for a vote this week. House Speaker Bob Cupp, R-Lima, has created a new committee tasked with repealing and replacing HB 6.
Ohio House begins process of repealing House Bill 6, nuclear bill tainted by corruption probe - -- New Ohio House Speaker Bob Cupp has taken what he says is the first step toward repealing House Bill 6, the nuclear bailout law that’s at the center of an ongoing federal corruption investigation. Cupp, a Lima Republican, on Monday announced the creation of a new “select committee” on Energy Policy and Oversight. He then referred to it for review three HB6-related bills, including House Bill 746, a Republican-backed proposal that would repeal the bill, passed last year, and re-instate previous law. But Cupp, speaking to reporters Monday morning, provided few additional details on the committee, including who its members will be or when it will begin reviewing legislation. He also said he couldn’t say when the repeal might take effect if were to pass. “We are sorting through our members here,” Cupp said. “We have some in mind, but we certainly would want to confirm with them before we surprise them.” He said, however, the new committee will begin holding hearings “rather quickly.” The issue is time-sensitive. Starting on Jan. 1, the law will provide more than $1 billion, or $150 million annually, to the Perry and Davis-Besse nuclear plants, via new fees tacked onto Ohioans’ electricity bills. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost, a Republican, has threatened to sue to prevent the subsidies from going into effect. “We want to move on it, and we want to get going on it. So this is the first step in the process,” Cupp said. State legislators are facing increasing pressure to act on HB6 as prominent Republicans, including Gov. Mike DeWine and Senate President Larry Obhof, have called for it to be swiftly repealed. But there has been debate on exactly how to act. Some former legislative supporters have distanced themselves from the bill since the emergence of the corruption probe, which resulted in the arrest of then-House Speaker Larry Householder. But some legislators have defended the bill, saying its policies — intended to prop up the nuclear plants, which employ thousands of workers in Lake and Ottawa counties — are worth keeping despite the taint of the corruption investigation.
Ohio nuclear bill also funded solar projects. What will happen to them if the bill is repealed? - — House Bill 6, recently revealed to be at the center of a federal corruption investigation into the Ohio Statehouse, is best known as a $1 billion bailout for two Ohio nuclear plants. But aside from the corruption that federal prosecutors have said fueled the nuclear portion of the bill, HB6 also provided tens of millions of dollars for a few designated solar projects in Southwest Ohio, including at least one with politically prominent backers. When fully operational, the projects, the first large-scale solar farms in Ohio, will generate 650 megawatts per year, enough to power almost 200,000 homes. Their inclusion allowed bill sponsors to accurately claim the bill funded renewable energy. However, the projects’ funding vexed Ohio’s community of renewable energy advocates and environmentalists, since HB6 gutted a larger requirement for power companies to provide a certain percentage of their electricity through renewable sources, and also eliminated a ratepayer fee that financed energy efficiency programs. The nuclear and solar funding is scheduled to take effect on Jan. 1, financed through new fees on Ohioans’ electricity bills. With that in mind, the projects have been moving toward construction. But now that lawmakers are debating repealing HB6 due to its alleged corrupt origins, the proposed solar farms’ financing calculations could be in flux. “We need to get financing for the project, and that’s up to the financial markets,” said Stephanie Williams, a lobbyist for Innergex, the developer behind the Hillcrest solar project in Brown County that’s more than halfway through construction and slated to be complete in December. “And the more HB6 is brought up and the repeal is talked about, the less financial markets want to look at a place like Ohio to put money.” Craig Sundstrom, a lobbyist for RWE Renewables, said the company’s Willowbrook project in Highland County will go forward “with or without” House Bill 6. Construction hasn’t yet begun, and it’s not scheduled to be complete until 2022.
Ohio bribery scandal increases scrutiny of how utilities use 'dark money' groups - As Wall Street analysts and anxious shareholders continue to wait for more dominoes to fall from a federal corruption probe in Ohio, investor-owned utilities could feel greater pressure to avoid any semblance of improper political activity by voluntarily disclosing contributions to "dark money" groups. "I think there will be efforts to create transparency. I don't know really what is going to end up happening," Glenrock Associates LLC analyst Paul Patterson told S&P Global Market Intelligence, expressing skepticism over a "nationwide movement." "I think it can vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction," Patterson said. David Pomerantz, executive director of the Energy and Policy Institute, a utility watchdog organization, said the Ohio scandal has led to "increased scrutiny on utilities' use of 501(c)(4) groups to covertly spend money in pursuit of their political agenda, both from policymakers and from investors." "I think that scrutiny's very well-founded," Pomerantz said in an email response to questions about the issue. "After all, if a utility is pursuing political advocacy that's so potentially toxic to the public that utilities feel compelled to hide their role in it, investors are right to question whether the company is pursuing a politically sustainable course." Akron, Ohio-headquartered FirstEnergy Corp. on a July earnings call disclosed that it spent about $15 million to support subsidies for the massive merchant nuclear plants embroiled in the federal investigation behind the passage of House Bill 6 in Ohio. Federal prosecutors filed bribery charges against former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four associates, including lobbyists, who have been indicted and accused of using "more than $59 million" through a "slush fund" used to steer the nuclear subsidy bill through the Ohio Legislature. An affidavit filed by an FBI special agent implies FirstEnergy and affiliated entities, though not mentioned by name, wired funds through a 501(c)(4) nonprofit group called Generation Now to support H.B. 6 and Householder-backed candidates in the Ohio House of Representatives. The affidavit and an indictment filed July 30 in the U.S. District Court of the Southern District of Ohio state that from August 2019 through November 2019, after H.B. 6 was signed into law, "Householder's Enterprise received over $38 million into Generation Now from Company A" with $23 million then transferred to "Front Company," which was formed to defeat a ballot initiative seeking to repeal the legislation.
Ex-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder returns to Ohio House, says he’ll plead not guilty - cleveland.com —State Rep. Larry Householder returned to the Ohio House chamber Tuesday for the first time since he was charged with overseeing a $60 million bribery scandal to pass the state’s nuclear bailout, saying he intends to plead not guilty and defending the bailout as “good legislation.” “I think that, you know, in the United States, we believe that you’re innocent until you’re proven guilty. And that day has not occurred,” said Householder, a Perry County Republican who was removed as House speaker in July following his arrest on a racketeering conspiracy charge. “And so, I am innocent. I am going to defend myself vigorously.” Householder declined to speak further about his case, though he said he didn’t know that authorities were looking into his actions until his arrest. As the lone candidate on the ballot in House District 72, Householder is likely to win re-election despite having a few write-in challengers. Householder said if he wins in November, he intends to take office next January, though he said he wouldn’t run to become speaker again. Asked whether there are still enough votes in the House to pass a revised version of the $1.3 billion nuclear bailout of two Northern Ohio nuclear plants owned at the time by a subsidiary of FirstEnergy Corp., Householder replied, “Do I think it’s going to be difficult? Yes, because it’s a very complex bill and not everybody’s tuned in.” Householder, who has had trouble finding legal representation, said he’s found an attorney. Householder said his lawyer, whom he declined to name, said he was allowed to come to House session even though a federal judge ordered him to “avoid all contact directly or indirectly with any person who is or may become a victim or potential witness in the investigation.” He continued: “But I’m not going to cause any problems. I mean, I’m just coming here to to participate and vote for the people in my district and do my job.”
Republicans And Democrats Clash Over How To Repeal Nuclear Bailout | WOSU Radio - At the Statehouse on Tuesday, both the Ohio House and Senate addressed the potential repeal of the controversial nuclear power plant bailout. As Democrats call for a quick repeal, Republicans moved ahead with a different approach. House Speaker Bob Cupp (R-Lima) says a special committee will hold hearings on HB6, the law that bails out nuclear power plants, subsidizes coal plants, rolls back renewable energy standards and eliminates efficiency mandates. Cupp says there's a lot of unwinding the House must do to understand the impacts of a repeal. "And to do something in a hasty and reckless manner is totally inappropriate," Cupp says. But Minority Leader Emilia Sykes says Democrats have asked for hearings on repeal bills that haven’t moved – so they’ll take other steps to, in her words, press the issue. “We’ve asked, we’ve waited, our constituents have waited, they deserve to feel trust in the institution that is making the laws and holds the purse in the state of Ohio," Sykes said. "And when they don’t do that, we will have to find ways to act." Part of the debate over a repeal is the impact it could have on electric bills. Nearly every Ohioan is set to see an increase of about $2.35 on their monthly electric bills for the nuclear power plant bailout, and to subsidize existing solar farms and coal plants. Supporters of HB6 say a repeal would allow the continuation of increased charges customers see for the renewable and energy efficiency standards. Opponents of HB6 say the energy efficiency standards creates a return on investment with savings that counter the initial cost. The Senate held its first hearing on a repeal bill, with several members who voted for the energy law defending it as good policy. Federal investigators charge that HB6 was at the center of a $60 million bribery scheme. A utility believed to be FirstEnergy and its subsidiary is accused of funneling the money into a dark money group controlled by former House Speaker and current Rep. Larry Householder (R-Glenford), in return for passing the bailout. Householder, who faces federal racketeering charges, says he plans on entering a plea of "not guilty."
Ohio Senate President Says He Favors "Straight Repeal" Of Nuclear Bailout Law | WKSU - Ohio House Speaker Bob Cupp (R-Lima) has appointed the members of a committee that will consider the nuclear bailout law at the center of a $61 million federal bribery case that led to the ouster of former Speaker Larry Householder. Democrats say Republicans are slowing down the repeal process with a new committee. But in the Senate, a repeal bill is starting to move forward. Senate President Larry Obhof (R-Medina), who voted for the bailout, said something needs to be done about the legislation known as HB 6 soon. “I favor straight repeal and frankly, I’m not sure how much discussion we really need to have to discuss that. But there are economic effects of doing that," Obhof said. For instance, Obhof said a repeal of the entire law could result in an increase to ratepayers because he says it cut rates overall – though it created an 85-cent monthly surcharge for the nuclear power plants on all ratepayers’ bills starting this coming January. That's a defense that others, including former House Speaker Larry Householder (R-Glenford), have said are why the bill is good legislation. A bipartisan Senate bill that would repeal the law in full had its first hearing this week. Neither the Republican nor Democratic sponsored bills in the House has had a hearing. The bills will be considered by the new House Select Committee on Energy Policy and Oversight. It includes five representatives who voted for HB 6, eight who voted against it and two who weren't in the legislature when it passed last year.
HB 6 costs go well beyond claimed harm to public trust in Ohio | Energy News Network A bill to repeal Ohio’s nuclear bailout law has languished for more than a month so far, and signs suggest that House leadership may be angling to defer or stop such efforts as Election Day draws near. Lawmakers filed repeal bills soon after the arrest of former House Speaker Larry Householder and others in July. Starting in January, House Bill 6 will require ratepayers to pay approximately $1 billion over the course of six years for subsidies that FirstEnergy had sought for two Ohio nuclear plants. Yet more is at stake, even beyond the $7 average increase in monthly energy spending that some advocates forecast as a result of the law.The federal indictment claims that approximately $60 million for an alleged unlawful enterprise came from “Company A” and affiliates “in return for legislation that would save the operation of the Nuclear Plants” in the state. Federal prosecutors have charged Householder, R-Glenford, and others with an alleged conspiracy involving the unlawful solicitation and use of funds for the election of sympathetic lawmakers, Householder’s rise to House speaker, the passage of House Bill 6, and the defeat of a referendum effort last year. Federal prosecutors claim that the various actions violated the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act. Quotes in case materials indicate that FirstEnergy is Company A. Its subsidiary FirstEnergy Solutions, together with other affiliates, owned and operated the Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear plants. FirstEnergy Solutions emerged frombankruptcy earlier this year and became Energy Harbor. Only about $3 million of the total could be traced from FirstEnergy Solutions and other entities before the federal complaint was released on July 21. The rest was dark money — funding to influence political action whose origin can’t readily be traced.Democratic Reps. Mike Skindell, of Lakewood, and Michael O’Brien, of Warren, introduced HB 738 on July 29. Lawmakers in the group attempted on Aug. 31 to file a motion to compel a floor vote. The effort was thwarted by the House clerk’s insistence on in-person signatures, even though electronic signatures have been accepted for other purposes during the COVID-19 pandemic.That same day, new House Speaker Robert Cupp announced plans for a House Select Committee on Energy and Policy Oversight, to which that and other bills would be referred, but without a specific timeline. “Our goal is to have an open and thorough process for repealing House Bill 6 and replacing it with thoughtful legislation Ohioans can have confidence in,” Cupp said in a press release.Skindell, who has decried HB 6 as a “corrupt piece of legislation,” said the new committee creation was basically just “a bureaucratic slowdown of the repeal process.”“We don’t need to study it,” said Rep. David Leland, a Democrat from Columbus, referring to hundreds of hours of testimony on the bill from last year. “We need to repeal it. We need to send a strong message to everybody, loud and clear, that Ohio is not for sale.”
Amid the HB 6 scandal, Ohio utility regulators must act to reassure ratepayers of the integrity of Ohio regulation: Ashley C. Brown - cleveland.com -- The allegations, if true, of bribery and unlawful lobbying by regulated utilities and affiliates to pass a bill requiring all Ohio electric consumers to pay a surcharge to provide subsidies for nuclear and coal plants (not all of them in Ohio) may pose a fundamental threat to the state’s regulatory system. While the substance of the House Bill 6 legislation is questionable, given its bestowing more private than public benefits and its adverse impact on the electricity market, the charges related to unlawful lobbying for its passage raise critical issues for both prosecutors and state regulators. Based entirely on the public record, the situation demands accountability. Criminal prosecution, alone, is insufficient. There are important issues that go to the functionality and integrity of the Ohio’s regulatory process. The two most critical issues are:
- 1. Whether ratepayer money was used for lobbying and/or bribery; and
- 2. Possible deficiencies in corporate governance.
The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) cannot stand by while the credibility of the regulatory process is eroded. It has tools which have been used in the past that should be deployed without disrupting the ongoing criminal investigations. The first issue is the source of money for lobbying and/or alleged bribery. The governing principle, of which breaches have occurred in the past, is that, while a utility can use its own funds, no ratepayer money can be used to lobby, much less bribe, public officials on its behalf. It is not clear in the public record from where the money used to carry out the activities described in the in the indictment and related documents came from, but it is crystal clear that full public accounting for any nontrivial amounts is necessary. A transparent, detailed financial audit is needed to paint the money trail that definitively establishes whether funds used for lobbying or alleged bribery came from ratepayers. If none did, it is important to establish that in the public record. If, on the other hand, significant ratepayer dollars were used, then the PUCO should make that public and decide how to compensate consumers for misuse of their money. The PUCO should order and oversee such an audit by competent, independent personnel.
No more delays on tainted House Bill 6. GOP lawmakers need to discard or revise the bill now. - cleveland.com The Ohio General Assembly is dawdling over the repeal or radical revision of House Bill 6, Ohio’s nuclear power plant bailout – to be funded by ratepayers should the legislature not act by Dec. 31. Federal prosecutors have charged that HB 6 passed last year thanks to a $60 million “racketeering conspiracy … to pass and uphold [the] billion-dollar … bailout” of the Perry and Davis-Besse nuclear plants, once owned by FirstEnergy Corp. And a federal grand jury indicted then-House Speaker Larry Householder and four other Statehouse figures in connection with HB 6′s passage. Ohioans have gotten used to stalling by the General Assembly. Still, it’s shocking that the legislature seemingly doesn’t know what to do about a law passed with the help of alleged criminality. When a doctor finds a malignancy, she aims to remove it. That’s what needs to happen now with HB 6. Nothing about this bailout bill inspires any trust in the legislature. HB 6 was introduced on April 12 of last year and became law in 102 days, on July 23, 2019. That’s warp speed in a Statehouse that’s ignored Ohio’s school funding crisis for 20-plus years.
Attack ad involving HB6 and FirstEnergy hits the waves – with a Republican attacking a Democrat - cleveland.com – Rep. Mike Turner, a Dayton Republican, is attacking his Democratic opponent, Desiree Tims, in an ad tying Tims to the $60 million bribery scandal involving GOP former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder. The problem? Tims has no connection to the scheme, Householder or anyone else involved. Even stranger is that Turner does. It’s an example of how Republicans are trying to turn the scandal around on Democrats amid a contentious election cycle. Householder was one of the most powerful Republicans in the state when federal agents arrested him, a top aide and three lobbyists – one of whom is the former chairman of the Ohio Republican Party. The ad itself does not say Tims was involved in the bribery scheme. Rather, it tries to tie her to the same type of government corruption. “It’s disgraceful. Lobbyists have bought seats in the Ohio Statehouse,” the narrator says at the beginning of the ad, with headlines about the ongoing bribery scandal splashed onscreen. “Now, Washington lobbyist Desiree Tims has moved back to Ohio and is trying to buy a seat in Congress.” At its core, the ad is meant to confuse the viewer and tie Tims to the ongoing scandal that has roiled Columbus and the Republican Party. In reality, Tims has no connection to FirstEnergy, whose dark money donations fueled the scheme, according to federal authorities, or the scandal. And, as with many Republicans in the state, Turner is connected, although tenuously, through past campaign donations from the PACs affiliated with the utility.
Ohio's shale oil, gas and liquids production falls for 2nd quarter in a row - Ohio's shale gas and liquids production dropped for the second quarter in a row as the state's privately backed drillers could not make up for production cuts by their publicly traded peers in the second quarter of 2020, the latest data from the state's Department of Natural Resources showed. Ohio shale production, largely from the Utica Shale, declined 8% to 6.56 Bcfe/d compared to the second quarter of 2019. Output was down 3% from the first quarter, far less than the 14% sequential drop in the first quarter as the coronavirus pandemic set in, according to data released Aug. 28. Most of Appalachia's large gas drillers began shutting in production in the second quarter to save those volumes for higher commodity prices expected this winter. EQT Corp.'s Ohio volumes dropped 28% as part of a 1.4 Bcf/d second quarter shut-in across its wells in Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Private equity-backed Ascent Resources, the state's largest producer and the eighth-largest producer in the U.S., reported a 13% year-over-year increase in gas, oil and NGL volumes, to 2.42 Bcfe/d in the second quarter, despite a cutback in drilling activity. "Due to the decreased demand for natural gas and the associated decrease in price, we have curtailed certain natural gas wells in an effort to optimize revenue in future periods," Ascent told investors in an Aug. 12 second-quarter financial report. "Increased curtailments of oil production in the United States have led to a decline in the associated natural gas produced from such wells, which has improved the supply-demand imbalance that the natural gas market currently faces." Ascent said its capital spending dropped 34% to $160 million in the second quarter, compared to the preceding quarter. For the first half of the year, Ascent's capital spending declined 46% to $402 million compared to the first six months of 2019. The private company told investors that it posted $23 million in adjusted losses in the second quarter, a reversal from the $64 million in adjusted profits in the previous year. The largest contributor to those losses was a 16% year-over-year decrease in its realized price for oil, gas and liquids to $2.54/Mcfe. While the dry gas counties of Belmont, Jefferson and Monroe continued to be the dominant locus of production, Harrison County in the wet gas window saw the sharpest uptick, 32%, in gas and liquids production in the second quarter compared to the previous year. Privately held Encino Energy LLC, backed by a Canadian pension plan and operating in Chesapeake Energy Corp.'s old leasehold, was the major contributor to that increase.
Peregrine Moves into Ohio-- Peregrine Energy Partners has announced the closing of producing mineral interests in Monroe County, Ohio from a private seller. In commenting on the transaction, the local royalty owner said of Peregrine, “They made the process seamless and continually went above and beyond as we worked together towards closing. I really appreciated the smooth and quick process from beginning to end. The royalty owner continued, “After discussing my options with Mr. Prier, I decided that it was in my family’s best interest to sell part of my royalties in an effort to fast-forward the next half-decade of income and minimize my overall tax burden.” This acquisition delivers on a key strategic objective of Peregrine as the company continues to target producing royalties in the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations. This marks the first acquisition in Ohio for Peregrine who has steadily expanded their Appalachia footprint. The Founders have been active in Pennsylvania and West Virginia for over a decade but only recently began efforts to acquire royalties across the border in Ohio. “Ohio has been an area we’ve watched closely for the past few years.” said Josh Prier, Peregrine Managing Director. “As the current production has had some time to settle in and provide us with a clearer picture of the decline profile, we’ve begun to look for opportunities to work closely with the royalty owners and industry professionals in the Buckeye State.” Peregrine finalized the acquisition of natural gas royalties in eastern Ohio under Montage Resources (NYSE: MR). Montage was recently acquired by Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN), now the third largest operator in the Appalachia Basin. Discussing the acquisition, Wolf Hanschen, Peregrine Co-Founder, remarked, “Our team is excited about the prospect of working with additional royalty owners in Ohio to bring transparency and optionality about their oil and gas interests.” The current state of the economy and fluidity of the oil and gas industry has Peregrine committed and focused in their efforts to provide clients with reliable and valuable insight throughout the decision-making process. When Peregrine engages with a royalty owner, the company delivers a professional evaluation of clients’ interest, thereby helping them better understand their options which puts them in a more comfortable position to make the best decision for their family.
Transparency, Environmental Concerns Surround Proposal To Barge Oil And Gas Waste On The Ohio River - - A proposal to repurpose a docking facility near Marietta, Ohio, to allow for the barging of oil and gas drilling waste on the Ohio River is drawing concern from environmental groups and local residents. Ohio-based DeepRock Disposal Solutions LLC is seeking approval from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Huntington District to operate a barge offloading facility to transfer the waste to existing storage tanks. The proposal indicates the loading facility can accommodate a 300-foot-long barge that is 54 feet wide. It is the third barging proposal this year being considered by federal regulators. A proposal near Martins Ferry, Ohio, and one near Portland, Ohio, both to build new barging loading facilities have already been approved. Opponents of the projects fear the barges will eventually carry millions of gallons of briny fracking waste laced with radioactive elements as well as other, unknown chemicals. The chemical makeup of fracking fluid is considered proprietary. Robin Blakeman, project coordinator with the Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition, said her main concern is the possibility of spills or leaks occurring during loading or unloading of the waste or on the river. She said a spill would threaten both the river's ecosystems and the drinking water for about 5 million people who draw their tap water from the Ohio River. “The proposed facility would involve the transport and handling of enormous amounts of oil and gas waste, which has the possibility of radioactive content and definitely has hazardous components,” she said. “The toxic contents of this oil and gas waste could be huge.” DeepRock Disposal declined a request for an interview about the nature of the project. It’s unclear if oil and gas waste is currently being barged on the river. A spokesperson for the U.S. Coast Guard, which regulates shipping on the river, said the Guard could only provide that information through a records request. The Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit Pittsburgh said no produced water is being transported by vessel in their area of responsibility, which includes a small portion of the Ohio River.
FERC environmental report on PennEast gas pipe project comes under attack - — The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's favorable environmental assessment for the phased-in PennEast Pipeline project generated hundreds of critical comments from environmental groups and residents opposed to one of the only large Northeast gas pipeline projects still pending at the commission. The roughly 118-mile, 1.1 Bcf/d project, originally intended to link Marcellus Shale dry gas production with markets in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York has faced hurdles in New Jersey, and an appeals court ruling thwarting its ability to condemn lands in which the state held an interest. To advance the project, PennEast proposed to amend the authorization and begin with a first phase: a 68-mile segment in Pennsylvania with the capacity to carry 695,000 Dt/d. A second phase segment, mostly in New Jersey, would enable the full capacity. The FERC staff Aug. 3 released an environmental assessment that found the two-phase approach would not constitute a major federal action significantly affecting the environment. The report focused mostly on new, limited facilities within a 2.1-acre site, the Church Road interconnects in Bethlehem Township, Pennsylvania, while considering some cumulative impacts of shifting to a phased approach. Between Aug. 27 and Sept. 3, more than 500 comments flowed into FERC about the report. Multiple commenters argued it was wrong to narrow the focus to the Church Road Interconnects when, they argued, the Phase 1 amendment would alter the entire project's certificated purpose and need. A number of commenters, including New Jersey regulators, also argued that more environmental survey data is available than when the original environmental impact statement was conducted, but that FERC had not pulled that new information into its analysis. Others found fault with FERC's consideration of the project purpose and need, now that it has been divided into two phases, arguing evidence of market support amounted to 57% of the first phase capacity, which is contracted to project affiliates. Delaware Riverkeeper Network and Clean Air Council argued that PennEast's proposal is not a mere phasing of construction but a reconfiguration of the original project, and thus an environmental impact statement is required.
Biden pushes back on Trump claims: 'I am not banning fracking' - The Hill Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in Pennsylvania on Monday sharply refuted claims from President Trump that he plans to ban fracking, a key drilling method for oil producers in the swing state.“I am not banning fracking,” Biden said. “Let me say that again: I am not banning fracking no matter how many times Donald Trump lies about me.” Throughout the Republican National Convention last week, speakers attacked Biden’s climate and energy plan, offering a number ofmisleading comments. Biden’s climate plan calls for ending new oil and gas leases on public lands, but it would not ban oil drilling and does not bar any specific method for extracting fossil fuels.Biden reiterated Monday that he views a transition to clean energy as part of his vision for improving the nation’s economy.“I've laid out an agenda for economic recovery that will restore a sense of security for working families,” he said. “We won't just build things back the way they were before. We're going to build them back better with good paying jobs building our nation's roads, bridges, solar arrays, windmills,” he said, saying the clean energy strategy has “a place for the energy workers right here in western Pennsylvania.”
Our opinion: Truth fracked - The notion that any president could simply ban fracking and gas and oil drilling is preposterous on its face. Even President Donald Trump couldn’t simply override the long-term leases, hundreds of billions of dollars in public and private investments and contracts to provide gas and oil to industrial enterprises that frame the industry. That hasn’t stopped the Trump campaign from claiming that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is out to ban fracking, the process by which drillers extract gas and oil from deep shale deposits. It’s an especially contentious message in Pennsylvania, where gas extraction from the deep Marcellus and Utica shale deposits has become a major industry. According to the Trump campaign, Biden’s alleged position would wipe out 600,000 jobs, even though the U.S. Department of Labor reports that, in July, gas extraction directly employed about 32,500 people in Pennsylvania and contributed to the employment of a total of about 155,000 people. Either way, the industry obviously is important to Pennsylvania. In Pittsburgh on Monday, Biden stated his actual position — that he would not attempt to ban fracking but would oppose any new oil or gas leases on federal land, which would have a minimal impact on production and hardly any impact in Pennsylvania. Biden favors acceleration of alternative energy development in the fight against climate change, and views a ban on new federal leases as an impetus for that initiative. If he succeeds, the air will be much cleaner than that emanating from misleading political advertising.
Video: Pipeline Battle in New Jersey May Be Heading to the Supreme Court | NJ Spotlight - Jacqueline Evans has been fighting for nearly six years to keep the 120-mile PennEast pipeline, which would stretch from Pennsylvania to Mercer County, off her property. She says it’s caused so much stress that she decided to rent her home and move until matters get resolved. The PennEast project is currently on pause after a third circuit of appeals’ decision regarding eminent domain. “The third circuit ruled in favor of the state that PennEast, a private pipeline developer, can’t seize state lands in federal court. So that brought the project to a screeching halt because they lost authority to over 40 properties in New Jersey that the state either owned or had some interest in,” said Tom Gilbert, campaign director for the New Jersey Conservation Foundation. PennEast has now petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to review the case because it was given approval by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to “… exercise the federal government’s power of eminent domain to secure necessary rights-of-way for the construction of an interstate pipeline.” Adding in a statement, “If left standing, the Third Circuit’s decision has the potential to increase energy costs to consumers, impede manufacturing and industrial projects, reduce high-paying labor jobs and deprive mineral rights owners of their ability to realize their property rights.” The Supreme Court has called on the U.S. solicitor general to look into the case. “The fate of my property and other people’s property is really weighing on that,” Evans said.
Algonquin Gas Gets Massachusetts Plant OK’d Despite Permit Suit Algonquin Gas Transmission LLC can operate its natural gas compressor in Massachusetts while the state completes its environmental review of the project, the First Circuit said Monday after reweighing the issue and the winter ahead. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit previously vacated the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection’s air permit issued for the Weymouth compressor station. The court said in its June decision that the department didn’t follow its own procedures when it found that Algonquin was using the best available technology to reduce emissions. The department sided with the company when it rejected an electric... To read the full article log in.
U.S. natgas slips, but posts best month since 2009 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Monday, retreating from an over nine-month high scaled in the last session, as weather forecasts turned cooler, although prices registered their best month since 2009 on a surge in LNG exports. Front-month gas futures fell 2.7 cents, or 1%, to settle at $2.630 per million British thermal units. Prices had touched their highest since early November at $2.743 on Friday. "There is a weather change. It is going to be cooler-than-normal, which is going to reduce demand," Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago said, adding that less-than-anticipated damage from Hurricane Laura and slower exports because of the storms is also weighing on prices. However, for the month, prices were up about 46%, the most since September 2009, propped up by a surge in LNG exports and on concerns about tropical storms. Refinitiv data indicated 151 cooling degree days (CDDs) in the Lower 48 states over the next two weeks, declining from 175 CDDs in the prior day. CDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses. Prices had earlier declined as much as 6%, but the market pared losses on concerns of another tropical disturbance which is beginning to form in the Caribbean and could cap production, advisory firm Ritterbusch said in a note. U.S. output rose to 87 bcfd on Sunday as many wells in the Gulf resumed operations after Laura, preliminary data from Refinitiv showed. U.S. Gulf Coast offshore producers on Sunday reported 50%, or 1.35 billion cubic feet, of natural gas output was offline due to the storm. Demand in the Lower 48 states is expected to decline as the weather turns cooler, falling from 85.8 bcfd this week to 82 bcfd in the next, according to Refinitiv.
U.S. natgas falls as cooling demand, LNG exports decline - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Tuesday on forecasts for cooler weather and lower demand for air conditioning, while a drop in liquefied natural gas exports due to the recent storms also weighed on prices. Front-month gas futures fell 10.3 cents, or 3.9%, to settle at $2.527 per million British thermal units. "Hurricane Laura took out a lot of demand from the Texas-Louisiana border right through the center of the country and it brought some cooler weather behind it," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis. Refinitiv data indicated 147 cooling degree days (CDDs) in the Lower 48 states over the next two weeks, declining from 151 CDDs in the prior day. CDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses. Demand in the Lower 48 states is expected to decline as the weather turns cooler, falling from 85.3 bcfd this week to 83.3 bcfd in the next, according to Refinitiv. A big drop in LNG exports from August levels are also weighing on prices, DiDona said, adding, however, the market will tighten as the LNG facilities come back online again. Damage to power lines and communications outages from the storm have hurt offshore oil and gas production, with natural gas down by 25%, or 676.55 million cubic feet per day, the U.S. Department of Interior reported on Tuesday. An offshore natural gas pipeline that serves four major U.S. Gulf of Mexico production platforms also remained out of commission, Enbridge Inc said. However, Cheniere Energy, the country's top LNG exporter, and Sempra LNG are expected to resume operations after no major damage was found following Hurricane Laura. U.S. output rose to 87.9 bcfd on Monday as many wells in the Gulf resumed operations after Laura, preliminary data from Refinitiv showed.
U.S. natgas futures slip on lower air conditioning demand - U.S. natural gas futures fell to their lowest in nearly a week on Wednesday as cooler-than-normal weather after heavy rains spawned by Hurricane Laura cut demand for air conditioning. Front-month gas futures fell 4.1 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $2.486 per million British thermal units. Prices had earlier fallen to $2.415, their lowest since Aug. 27. Hurricane Laura has reduced demand for natural gas as rains from the storm turned the weather cooler and lowered electric power consumption due to outages, said Thomas Saal, senior vice president of energy at StoneX. Laura knocked out power to thousands of homes and businesses in Louisiana, Texas and Arkansas after slamming into the Gulf Coast near the Texas-Louisiana border last week as a major Category 4 storm. Refinitiv data on Wednesday indicated 144 cooling degree days (CDDs) in the Lower 48 states over the next two weeks, declining from 147 CDDs the previous day. CDDs measure the number of degrees a day’s average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses. Demand in the Lower 48 is expected to decline as the weather turns cooler, falling from 85.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 83.8 bcfd in the next, according to Refinitiv. Meanwhile, producers were ramping up output after there was no significant damage to offshore production facilities from the storm. Natural gas production was down by 25%, or 676.55 million cubic feet per day, on Tuesday. Enbridge’s two natural gas pipelines that connect offshore U.S. Gulf production platforms resumed operation on Tuesday, while Cheniere Energy, the country’s top liquefied natural gas exporter, and Sempra LNG were also expected to resume operations after shutdowns last week.
US working natural gas volumes in underground storage rise by 35 Bcf: EIA | S&P Global Platts — US natural gas stocks increased mainly in line with analysts' expectations at about half the five-year average build, and Henry Hub futures showed mixed results following the release of the storage report as a power outage at an LNG terminal could slow export demand recovery during September. \ Storage inventories increased by 35 Bcf to 3.455 Tcf for the week ended Aug. 28, a US Energy Information Administration report showed Sept. 3. The injection was barely more than an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts calling for a 34 Bcf build. Responses to the survey ranged from an injection of 27 Bcf to 48 Bcf. The injection measured less than the 77 Bcf build reported during the same week last year as well as the five-year average gain of 66 Bcf, according to EIA data. Storage volumes stood at 538 Bcf, or 18.4% more than the year-ago level of 2.917 Tcf, and 407 Bcf, or 13.4% more than the five-year average of 3.048 Tcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub October contract added 5 cents to $2.54/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report. However, the winter strip of November through March fell by 1 cent to average at $3.22/MMBtu. The S&P Global Platts Analytics supply and demand model currently forecasts a 60 Bcf injection for the week ending Sept. 4. This would lower the surplus to the five-year average by 8 Bcf as about 10 net injections remain before the flip to the winter withdrawal season. Inventories are predicted to peak at 3.864 Tcf before net withdrawals begin in November. Gulf of Mexico production and LNG feedgas demand have both started recovering during the week in progress. Offshore production has started to rebound from near-zero to 700 MMcf/d, following almost entirely shutting in 2.2 Bcf/d last week due to Hurricane Laura. However, feedgas demand recovery at the Cameron LNG export terminal looks to be delayed due to widespread power grid damage in Louisiana from the hurricane. Total supplies are down 800 MMcf/d week over week, mainly driven by reduced net Canadian imports after onshore and offshore production saw similar offsetting moves. Downstream, total demand has fallen by more than 5 Bcf/d on the week, with the vast majority of that coming from reduced power burn demand, and bolstered by a second consecutive 900 MMcf/d drop in LNG feedgas demand.
U.S. natgas steadies as production recovery offsets warmer weather view - - U.S. natural gas futures settled little changed on Thursday after forecasts for warmer weather and below-normal storage build were offset by a recovery in production post-Hurricane Laura. Front-month gas futures rose 0.1 cent, to settle at $2.487 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). "With Laura we saw a tremendous amount of supply shut in, but a lot of demand was shut as well, and the suppliers came back, but at the same time the weather is turning to moderate," said Art Gelber, president of Gelber & Associates in Houston. Prices had earlier risen over 3% after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. utilities injected 35 billion cubic feet of gas into storage in the week ended Aug. 28, which was in line with expectations of a 34 bcf build, but still below normal. The five-year (2015-19) average build is of 66 bcf, compared with 77 bcf in the same week last year. Some of the cooler-than-normal weather after heavy rains from Laura turned a bit warmer, providing support to the market, said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. Refinitiv data indicated 148 cooling degree days in the Lower 48 states over the next two weeks, increasing from 144 CDDs the previous day. CDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses. Laura, which landed as a major Category 4 storm near the Texas-Louisiana border last week, impacted 60% of natural gas offshore production, but producers were rapidly ramping up output after there was no significant damage due to the storm. Natural gas output from the Gulf of Mexico was down by 16%, or 420 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), on Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.
U.S. natgas rises on hopes of higher LNG exports - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose on Friday, supported by expectations of an increase in LNG exports after they dropped last week as Hurricane Laura shut facilities and export plants. Front-month gas futures rose 10.1 cents, or 4.1%, to settle at $2.588 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). For the week, the front-month registered its first weekly fall in five and at a decline of 3.5%, its worst performance since the week ended July 17. "There are some news that the LNG exports demand is about to start picking back up again in the next week or so, as some of the facilities are getting back electricity and ramping up, that's very supportive for the market," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis. "The market was definitely looking for that demand, after having the big falloff in the exports towards the end of August before the storms hit," he added. Cheniere Energy, the country's top LNG exporter, and Sempra LNG are expected to resume operations after no major damage was found following Hurricane Laura. Laura knocked out power to thousands of homes and businesses in Louisiana, Texas and Arkansas after slamming into the Gulf Coast near the Texas-Louisiana border last week as a major Category 4 storm. Demand in the Lower 48 states is expected to decline slightly, falling from 83.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 83.6 bcfd in the next, according to Refinitiv. Refinitiv data indicated 137 cooling degree days (CDDs) in the Lower 48 over the next two weeks, decreasing from 148 CDDs the previous day, but still above the 30-year normal of 126. CDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses.
US ethane production rises to record: EIA - US ethane field production rose to a record high in June as producers moved to recover more product late in the second quarter.Ethane output rose to 2.1mn b/d, a 14pc increase from the prior record 1.8mn b/d produced in May and a 16pc increase from the previous June, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported today in its monthly data.Production fell sharply in March and April as shut-in natural gas wells reduced output of associated gas. By late May, rising prices supported recovery of more ethane from the gas stream. Mont Belvieu, Texas, EPC ethane averaged 12.97¢/USG in April, before rising to 22.36¢/USG in May and 21.88¢/USG in June.Ethane inventories also rose, climbing to 52mn bl in June, up 9pc from the previous month, but a 14pc drop from the 60mn bl reported in June 2019. June ethane exports of 308,000 b/d were up by 3pc from May and up by 12pc from June last year.US butane exports stood at 301,000 b/d in June, down from 352,000 b/d last month and up slightly from the 296,000 b/d during the same month last year. June butane exports mainly went to destinations in Indonesia and South Korea.Butane stocks stood at 55.4mn bl in June, up by 20pc from May when production fell sharply, but down from 58.2mn bl of inventories in June last year. The US produced 13.4mn bl of butane in June, down from 13.8mn bl in May, but up from 12.7mn bl last June.
Big Oil’s Petrochemical Bet Is A Risky One -Petrochemicals are expected to underpin global oil demand growth in the future as growth in transportation fuels demand is set to slow with the increased use of electric vehicles, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in March in its annual Oil 2020 report with projections until 2025. But are petrochemicals really profitable?“Petrochemical feedstocks LPG/ethane and naphtha will drive around half of all oil products demand growth, helped by continued rising plastics demand and cheap natural gas liquids in North America,” the IEA said in March when the COVID-19 pandemic was already upending global oil demand growth projections for this year. Before the pandemic, oil majors had already bet big on petrochemicals, expecting demand in the sector to continue driving oil demand growth.But with the coronavirus crisis shocking every major industry, analysts are now questioning the economics and long-term rationale of Big Oil’s ‘safety bet’ on petrochemicals, especially in view of the energy transition and continued drive toward reduced use of plastics in developed economies.Even before the pandemic, some parts of the petrochemical value chain were already overwhelmed with overcapacity, with profits in the segment shrinking as a result. COVID-19 has heightened the pressure on profits for petrochemical players, Wood Mackenzie’s petrochemicals analysts said last month. A number of oil producers and refiners are targeting chemicals, especially olefins and aromatics, which is set to add more capacity and “likely lead to national and international oil companies steadily increasing their stake in the petrochemical market,” according to WoodMac’s analyst. Indeed, NOCs and IOCs have increased their bets on petrochemicals, which they expect to support their profit margins and downstream businesses in a future of increased electrification of transport. However, the pandemic has caused some majors to pause and defer investments. Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco sees chemicals and petrochemicals as a key focus area of development as it aims to become “the world’s preeminent integrated energy and chemicals company.” Aramco announced in mid-July a downstream reorganization, which Abdulaziz M. Al Gudaimi, Senior Vice President of Aramco Downstream, described as helping to “streamline our operations and reinforce our position as a major global energy and petrochemicals player.But one European major is getting out of the petrochemicals business. BP is divesting its global petrochemicals business to UK’s Ineos for US$5 billion as part of the next strategic step in BP’s metamorphosis from an oil and gas company to an energy company that could compete in the energy transition.The future of petrochemicals is not black and white, and large petrochemical integration could help refiners remain competitive in the next decade.Nevertheless, the COVID-19 crisis and the new bust in the oil price cycle have highlighted the cautionary tale that Big Oil would be wise not to put all their eggs in one basket.
Saudi oil shipments to America plunge to 35-year low - Saudi Arabia drew the wrath of Republicans in Washington this spring by sending an armada of tankers to America to drown US oil makers with cheap crude. Now, the kingdom has reversed course, steering the fewest barrels here since the Reagan era.The United States imported just 264,000 barrels per day of Saudi crude during August, according to estimates from ClipperData, a commodity research firm. That's down nearly 50% from 2019's average.If confirmed by official government statistics, that would mark the lowest amount of Saudi oil exports to the United States since 1985. "Saudi crude flows bound for the US have basically dried up," Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, told CNN Business in an email. The course-reversal by Saudi Arabia -- from intentionally flooding the United States with excess crude to holding back barrels -- underscores the kingdom's dramatic efforts to revive depressed energy markets during the pandemic.
U.S. energy imports and exports were nearly equal in May -In May 2020, the United States exported and imported nearly equal amounts of energy, based on data in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Monthly Energy Review. The United States had been a net exporter of energy in several months of the past year. Changes in domestic production and declines in global demand for energy since mid-March in response to COVID-19 have shifted energy trade balances back in the direction of net imports, especially for U.S. crude oil and petroleum products.The United States exported slightly more energy than it imported in May 2020; imports and exports were each about 1.7 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu). U.S. energy exports decreased 15% and imports decreased 19% compared with May 2019. Generally, the United States imports more crude oil than it exports, but it exports more petroleum products, natural gas, and coal than it imports. Trade volumes for other fuels such as biofuels, biomass, electricity, nuclear fuel, and coal coke are relatively small. EIA's Monthly Energy Review converts the physical volumes of energy trade into energy equivalent units based on each fuel’s estimated energy, or heat, content. In 2019, the United States exported more total energy on an annual basis than it imported for the first time in 67 years. U.S. net exports reached a record-high monthly value of 480 trillion Btu in March 2020, but they fell to just 2 trillion Btu in May.
US GOM Oil Slowly Coming Back - U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) oil production is slowly returning following Hurricane Laura, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) has revealed. As of August 31, 53.48 percent of oil production from the region is estimated to still be shut in, which marks a decrease from the figure of 69.76 percent recorded on August 30 and 82.13 percent registered on August 29. Just over 41 percent of gas production was estimated to still be offline as of August 31, which also marked a decrease from the August 30 figure of 49.87 percent and the August 29 figure of 58.84 percent. According to the BSEE, 117 production platforms, or 18.2 percent of the 643 manned platforms in the U.S. GOM, remained evacuated as of August 31. A total of two non-dynamically positioned rigs remained evacuated, which equates to 16.67 percent of the 12 rigs of this type in the region. All dynamically positioned rigs were said to have returned to their working locations. The BSEE’s latest figures are based on data from 35 offshore operator reports submitted as of 11:30 CDT on August 31. In its latest report, the BSEE reiterated that once all standard checks had been completed, production from undamaged facilities would be brought back online immediately and warned again that facilities sustaining damage may take longer to bring back online. Hurricane Laura made landfall on August 27 and has been described as the most powerful storm in Louisiana and Texas in 150 years. CNN reported yesterday that some Louisiana residents won’t have power for weeks following the hurricane.
US Gulf of Mexico operators slowly continue to restore oil, gas output from storm shut-ins - — US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas operators continue to restore oil and natural gas output, albeit slowly, from platforms temporarily brought offline prior to Hurricane Laura which slammed the Texas-Louisiana border a week ago, a federal offshore agency said Sept. 3. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up At midday Sept. 3, 301,077 b/d of oil production, or 16.3% of the region's total, was still shut in from the storm, as well as 420,000 Mcf/d or 15.5% of the area total, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, said in its daily update. That means slightly more than 67,000 b/d of oil and 112,000 Mcf/d of gas was restored in the 24 hours prior to the latest BSEE report. Also, 51 platforms were still shut in Sept. 3, or 8% of the US Gulf's total, compared to 59 a day earlier. BSEE said its data is based on 31 operators reporting Sept. 3. If restoration efforts appear to be inching along rather slowly compared to the usual brisk pace of most industry efforts, it's likely due to the extensive number of platforms that were offline – 297 at peak, BSEE spokeswoman Karla Marshall said. "It was a pretty big storm, and a lot of production was shut in, so it's a little bit slower than the previous few" hurricanes, Marshall said. "[Industry] only has so many inspectors, and so many helicopters" to perform the reviews and other work prior to normalizing Gulf production. At peak, 1.559 million b/d of oil (84% of Gulf's total) and 1.6 Bcf/d of gas (61% of total US Gulf gas output) had been shut-in from Laura as the powerful Category 4 hurricane approached, and eventually hit, the far southwest Louisiana shore near the Texas border on Aug. 27. Also Sept. 3, two tropical waves and a low-pressure area of disturbance were located off the West African coast on Thursday and these could develop further in the next five days, the US National Hurricane Center said Sept. 3. The three events had potentials ranging from 20% to 70% of developing into cyclones in the next five days, NHC said.
Emission abates from leaking natural gas well of Texas coast (AP) — The emission from a leaking natural gas well off the Texas coast could no longer be seen from shore by Wednesday and was down to about 5 percent of what it was the day before, officials said. The well located on a platform about 3 miles (5 kilometers) offshore from Padre Island’s Bob Hall Pier was spewing a visible cloud of natural gas, water and condensate Tuesday, in addition to making a sound like a jet engine. Texas General Land Office spokeswoman Karina Erickson said Wednesday morning that the release from the platform could no longer be seen from shore. U.S. Coast Guard spokeswoman Hailye Reynolds said the emission from the well was down to about 5 percent of what it was on Tuesday. She said it was unclear why dramatic decrease happened. Efforts to get to the unmanned platform owned by Houston-based Magellan E&P Holdings Inc. by boat have been stymied by rough waters from high winds. A spokesman for Witt O’Brien’s, the company that’s handling Magellan’s operational response to the incident, said that as soon as weather permits, a crew will be sent by boat to make the repairs. The spokesman, Sean Fitzgerald, said they expect the repair to be completed sometime over the weekend. Officials so far have said the environmental impact has been minimal. The U.S. Coast Guard said a light natural gas sheen that surrounded the platform on Tuesday was gone by Wednesday and there hasn’t been an impact to the shoreline. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality said Wednesday that so far air monitoring has not detected anything at levels of concern. Last month four people were killed when a dredging vessel in the Port of Corpus Christi hit a submerged propane pipeline, causing an explosion.
Baker Hughes Shows Gain in US Rigs - The total number of rotary drilling rigs operating in the United States rose by two this week, Baker Hughes Co. (NYSE: BKR) reported Friday. The 256-rig U.S. count includes 181 oil rigs (up one from last week), 72 gas rigs (no change) and three miscellaneous rigs (up one), Baker Hughes noted in a written statement emailed to Rigzone. The latest U.S. figure reflects a year-on-year decrease of 642 drilling units, with 557 fewer oil, 88 fewer gas and three additional miscellaneous for the period, the service company added. Baker Hughes also revealed the U.S. offshore rig count increased by two this week to 15 units. Compared to this time last year, the U.S. offshore figure is down by 11. Canada shed two rigs this past week, Baker Hughes continued. The firm stated that Canada’s 52-rig count consists of 19 oil rigs (unchanged from last week) and 33 gas rigs (down two). Ninety-five more rigs were operating in Canada at this time in 2019, noted Baker Hughes. The company pointed out that oil rigs are down 83 and gas rigs are down 12.
Cheniere to restart Sabine Pass LNG production after hurricane --Cheniere Energy and Cheniere Energy Partners say a comprehensive facility and operational assessment of the Sabine Pass Liquefaction facility and pipeline assets revealed no significant damage from Hurricane Laura. Bechtel, Cheniere's EPC contractor, is returning today to Sabine Pass to resume work constructing Train 6 and on the Third Berth project.Also, Sempra Energy (SRE +0.8%) reports no catastrophic wind damage at its Cameron LNG export facility in Louisiana and "minimal" flooding at the site of its proposed Port Arthur LNG terminal in Texas.Gulf Coast energy facilities braced for "catastrophic" damage from the hurricane but averted worst-case scenarios.
Changing demand for petroleum products has led to operational changes at U.S. refineries --Demand for transportation fuels in the United States has fallen since mid-March because of the spread of coronavirus and efforts to mitigate it. Demand for motor gasoline and jet fuel in particular has fallen to its lowest levels in years. In response, U.S. refineries reduced their operations to adjust to changing levels of overall demand for petroleum products and made other changes that resulted in proportionately less production of motor gasoline and jet fuel and more production of distillate fuel oil.Beginning in April, refiners responded to less demand for transportation fuels by decreasing overall refinery runs.Refinery runs were 22% lower in April 2020 compared with the full year 2019 average of 17.0 million barrels per day (b/d). In May, inputs to distillation units were similar, at 21% lower than the 2019 average. These reductions largely resembled the overall declines in demand for finished petroleum products in those months, as measured by product supplied.Because demand for motor gasoline and jet fuel was disproportionately affected by travel restrictions and other measures that were in place throughout much of the United States starting in late March, refineries changed operations in ways that resulted in less production of motor gasoline and jet fuel and more production of distillate fuel oil.These three products generally have the highest yield percentages from refineries. In 2019, refinery yields for motor gasoline averaged 46%; distillate fuel oil, 30%; and jet fuel, 10%. Refinery yields reflect the volumetric ratio of a finished product to refineries’ total inputs of crude oil and net inputs of unfinished oils.In April, refinery yields for motor gasoline fell to 41%, and jet fuel yields fell to 5%. Both values were, at the time, the lowest in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) monthly data series for refinery yields, which dates back to 1993. Refinery yields are zero-sum, meaning a decline in one product’s yield will mean an increase in another product’s or group of products’ yields.In April, U.S. distillate fuel oil yields increased to 38%, their highest value on record. In the U.S. Gulf Coast region, distillate fuel oil yields surpassed those of gasoline for the first time, reaching 40% for distillate and 39% for gasoline. In May, as travel increased, motor gasoline demand increased, but jet fuel demand continued to fall.Refineries can change their petroleum product output by running downstream units, or units that process the output from distillation units, differently. EIA surveys the amount of material (referred to as fresh feed) that runs through four types of downstream units (catalytic reformers, catalytic crackers, catalytic hydrocrackers and cokers). Of these four types, catalytic crackers tend to be associated with motor gasoline production, and these units were operated less than other downstream units in April.
Demand for jet fuel in the U.S. is recovering faster than in many other markets - - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. jet fuel consumption has been particularly affected by responses to the 2019 novel coronavirus. However, analysis of flight-level data provided by Cirium on commercial passenger flights—a category of aircraft that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates accounted for 73% of total U.S. jet fuel consumption in January 2020—suggests that demand for jet fuel in the United States has, so far, recovered faster than in many other major aviation markets. EIA estimates that as of August 16, 2020, consumption of jet fuel by U.S. commercial passenger flights was approximately 612,000 barrels per day (b/d), 43% of the estimated amount consumed on the same date one year earlier. This estimate is considerably higher than the estimate of jet fuel consumption compared with year-ago levels as of August 16, 2020, from Europe (36%), the rest of Africa (31%), the Middle East and North Africa (30%), the rest of Asia (28%), and in the rest of the Americas (24%). Relative jet fuel consumption in China (including its Special Administrative Regions Hong Kong and Macau) was, however, higher in August; China consumed 60% of the amount used in the previous year. As discussed in greater detail in a previous EIA analysis, differences in the speed and degree of a region’s commercial jet fuel consumption recovery can be attributed to a couple of key factors.First, each market’s or country’s exposure and response to COVID-19 has been different, particularly with respect to the timing of the disease’s arrival, the extent of government-required restrictions, and the country’s ability to effectively contain the disease. China’s relatively advanced state of recovery can be primarily attributed to its early exposure to COVID-19 and its relatively strict government controls. Second, regional differences can also be attributed to a market’s reliance on domestic, rather than international, air travel. Because of the less severe restrictions on domestic travel (the U.S. Department of State has officially limited or advised against travel with several dozen countries), the shorter distances typically involved, and the larger share of domestic air travel that is non-discretionary, domestic air travel has, in most markets, been relatively less affected by COVID-19 mitigation efforts than international air travel.
Harbor Island crude terminal project needs funding, pipelines after legal debate resolved — The lengthy legal fight for the Harbor Island crude export terminal was resolved amicably, but the Texas port project still requires more financial support, new pipelines and, perhaps most importantly, recovered global oil demand in order to ever move forward with construction. The Port of Corpus Christi and the tourist-friendly city of Port Aransas announced on Aug. 31 that they would settle their litigation, but Port CEO Sean Strawbridge acknowledged that a lot of pieces must still come together to make the Harbor Island project a reality even if he remains bullish on its long-term prospects. In a Sept. 2 interview, Strawbridge said he's glad the port and the city are "finally aligned" on the project with city services now set to receive more funding from the port. "The bigger question, of course, is are the economic conditions going to support development out there?" Strawbridge said. "I think eventually they will, but the economics are difficult at this point." The Harbor Island project is designed to accommodate VLCCs at an island terminal, which would be a first in the US. The roughly $1 billion would export up to 2 million barrels of crude per vessel, which is about how much VLCCs can accommodate. Harbor Island also would include a desalination plant for crude oil processing. Thus far, only one Gulf of Mexico port, Louisiana's LOOP, can fully load VLCCs without reverse lightering from smaller ships. Dollars and pipes Apart from pending permitting approvals from the state and the US Army Corps of Engineers to proceed with channel dredging, Strawbridge said another big financial backer is likely needed, as are at least two substantive pipeline projects to direct crude oil from the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub to Corpus Christi. As it stands now, Corpus Christi, which emerged as the nation's top oil exporter late in 2019, exports crude almost entirely from the Permian Basin and South Texas' Eagle Ford Shale. "Harbor Island absolutely makes sense with Cushing connections, but it's challenged otherwise," Strawbridge said. Likewise, "We certainly would like to see a blue-chip player enter the space," Strawbridge said, in order to support the project with funding and industry expertise. The big private equity player, The Carlyle Group, walked away from the Harbor Island project last year, leaving developer Lone Star Ports with a sole owner in the form of the smaller firm, The Berry Group.
Permian Basin natural gas pipeline clears legal hurdle despite concerns - A federal judge in West Texas ruled in favor of a natural gas pipeline that would connect Permian Basin extraction operations with Gulf Coast refinery markets as the Sierra Club sought to block the pipeline due to its perceived threat to the environment along the route. Kinder Morgan’s $2 billion Permian Highway Pipeline would stretch about 430 miles from Waha, Texas in the Permian to the Gulf Coast via a 42-inch line. It would cross through central Texas and terminate southeast of Austin with the ability to access the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market on the Gulf Coast along with gas markets in Agua Dulce and Katy, Texas. The project faced stiff opposition as it passed through Texas Hill Country, where residents and environmental groups maligned an incident earlier this spring when drilling fluid was spilled in the Blanco River as the pipeline was built beneath. Kinder Morgan subsequently announced it would seek plans to reroute the line around the river. It was also challenged as it crossed through hundreds of water crossings, allegedly imperiling sensitive ecosystems, karstic formation and endangered species. The Sierra Club filed a motion in April for an injunction to halt construction of the pipeline, citing the current and future damage the project would cause to the environment during its ongoing construction and future use. The motion also alleged the pipeline did not receive proper permitting despite permits issued by the Army Corps of Engineers which the Sierra Club argued did not involve proper environmental analysis. But U.S. District Judge Robert Pitman for the Western District of Texas argued in his denial of the motion that the Sierra Club had not demonstrated adequate future impacts as the pipeline was almost completed with an expected in-service date in early 2021.
Second U.S. shale boom's legacy: Overpriced deals, unwanted assets - (Reuters) - Oil and gas companies plunged over $156 billion into corporate takeovers and land deals during the second U.S. shale boom, in a massive bet that good times would continue and crude prices would rise. Many of those deals have become financial albatrosses. The prospect for relief is limited: the industry is still working through the shock of a historic collapse in fuel demand in such a short period of time, prompted by the sudden impact of the coronavirus on global mobility. Oil companies are cutting their budgets to preserve cash and survive - not to spend it on buying more companies. That leaves few companies with the money or the appetite to buy distressed assets. Another 150 North American oil and gas producers could face bankruptcy by the end of 2022, according to Rystad Energy, if crude prices remain near current levels. The shale revolution turned the United States into the world’s largest crude producer, pumping out more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd) at its peak. The industry beat forecasts again and again for production growth, but rarely for financial returns. Still, the promise of future returns lured investors, including a wave of acquisitions that happened after the first boom when prices pulled back sharply from 2014 to 2016. Now, many of the 2016 to 2019 shale deals are financially unworkable due to low oil prices, according to six people familiar with the transactions. Of the 50 largest acreage purchases or M&A transactions between 2016 and 2019, at least 31 add value only if global benchmark Brent crude LOCc1 is above $50 a barrel, or $5 higher than current levels, according to energy research firm Wood MacKenzie. Production has fallen by more than 1 million bpd, and there is little to encourage a sustained rise in prices. Fuel storage is brimming worldwide, and fuel demand has been slow to recover even as global lockdowns ease. Investors are wary of energy shares, as the S&P 500 Energy sector .SPNY is down 40% this year even as the U.S. stock market touched new highs this month. Oil companies such as BP Plc (BP.L), Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) made highly publicized purchases that have lost substantial value. BP, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) and others have cut the assumed value of those assets, conceding big wagers on shale will not pay off.
US oil, gas rig count rises by three to 285 heading into last trimester of 2020 - S&P Global — The US oil and natural gas rig count rose by three on the week to 285, rig data provider Enverus said Sept. 3, as the final trimester of the year approaches with the drilling arena not showing much change. Two of the three rigs added in the week that ended Sept. 2 were oil-focused, as that number rose to 196. The other rig was gas-focused, for a total of 89. The big jump for the week came from the Permian Basin of West Texas/New Mexico, which saw an increase of four rigs to 131. Both the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas and the Haynesville Shale of East Texas/Northwest Louisiana gained one rig each, for totals of 11 and 37, respectively. "The Permian rig additions were from larger companies that may be able to make $44/b WTI economical," Matt Andre, an analyst for S&P Global Platts Analytics, said. EOG Resources, Occidental Petroleum, WPX Energy and QEP Resources each added a rig in the prolific basin, Andre said. But five of the US' largest domestic plays saw no change week on week. The Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana still has 10 rigs, the Denver-Julesburg Basin of Colorado six; the Marcellus Shale, mostly sited in Pennsylvania, 25; the SCOOP/STACK play in Oklahoma 10 rigs; and the Utica Shale mostly in Ohio, has six. The Texas Gulf Coast, where the count declined by three in the week that ended Aug. 26 and coincided with Hurricane Laura's landfall on the Texas-Louisiana border a day later, remains at three this week as operators continue to restore US Gulf of Mexico production. It is still unclear if there was a connection between the storm and those onshore rigs dropped from small fields in that region. Powerful storms such as Laura, which was a Category 4 – the second highest on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – often retain their force for a time even after they move inland. In any case, the total US rig count has bounced around since the 279 rig trough of early July and appears to be hovering in a slightly higher range.
Colorado considers oil well rules guarding against environmental racism - Denver Business Journal --Projects near minority, low-income communities may trigger permit scrutiny.
Oil and Gas Rulemaking to Delete Environmental Law References (2) -- The U.S. Forest Service proposed new oil and gas development regulations on Monday that eliminate references to environmental laws and defer final oil leasing decisions to the Interior Department. The proposed rules, which would apply to a land area the size of California and Montana combined, would delete references to complying with the National Environmental Policy Act and the Endangered Species Act “in favor of letting those laws and regulations speak for themselves,” according to a pre-publication notice appearing in the Federal Register on Monday.
Trump Admin Proposes 'Vicious' Plan for Fossil Fuel Lease Sales in California Amid Historic Wildfires - Especially given the climate-fueled wildfires ravaging the region, conservationists sounded alarm Thursday in response to a Trump administration proposal for an oil and gas lease sale in California, which would be the state's first such federal auction in eight years.At issue are over 4,300 acres of public land in Kern County, an area recently dubbed "the oil industry's political power center." The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) released a draft environmental assessment of the plan Wednesday for the sales, which would occur by the end of the year.A BLM statement announcing the proposal notes that California allows fracking—much to the ire of environmental groups.The proposal comes as California to reel from massive wildfires that have stretched firefighting resources thin and burned over 1.25 million acres amid a heatwave and the coronavirus pandemic."It's breathtakingly vicious for the Trump administration to expand drilling and fracking while California battles historic wildfires driven by climate change," Clare Lakewood, an attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement.Lakewood said that if the sales go through, adverse impacts on the climate will be guaranteed."More oil wells mean more greenhouse gases, more air pollution, and more destroyed habitat," she said, and warned that "selling this public land to oil companies will do significant harm to our environment, despite the administration's ridiculous claims."Drilling leases haven't been offered in the state since a federal judge ruled in 2013, based on a legal challenge from the Center for Biological Diversity and the Sierra Club, that BLM acted unlawfully in issuing oil leases in Monterey County without considering the environmental impacts of fracking.Other bids by the federal government to open public lands in California to fossil fuel drilling have sufferedsimilar fates. The Trump administration's proposals last year to offer up over 1 million acres of public land to oil drilling are the subject of ongoing litigation, the Center for Biological Diversity noted. “We've blocked any new federal leasing in California in court for eight years now, and we'll fight this too," said Lakewood.
Trump Admin Proposes Drilling for Oil and Gas in National Forests - The Trump Administration released a proposed rule allowing oil and gas drilling on millions of acres of protected national forests, The Houston Chronicle reported.The new rule would allow drilling without public review or environmental reviews that would analyze the impact of industrial actions, The Guardian reported."By undermining the public participation and environmental review required by the National Environmental Policy Act, this proposed rule puts the interests of the fossil fuel industry ahead of the public interest," Will Fadely, a senior government relations representative for The Wilderness Society, said in a statement.So far, the U.S. Forest Service allows drilling and exploration in roughly one-third of its protected forests, or about three percent of its lands. Now, a new analysis from The Wilderness Society finds that the proposed rule will transfer control of the lands from the Forest Service to the Bureau of Land Management, which will then open up drilling on millions of acres in Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming, The Guardian reported.The Forest Service would experience a drastically reduced role, with its duties limited to protecting specifically named natural resources.Although the rule mostly targets forests in the West, the proposed rule could also affect national forests on the East Coast, according to The Guardian. This means more forests could share the fate of Allegheny National Forest, now home to thousands of abandoned oil and gas wells, which taxpayers must pay to clean up, The National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) reported. As the National Audubon Society pointed out, national forests play an important role in storing carbon dioxide and combatting the climate crisis. By eliminating the necessary environmental review, the new leases will have free reign to cleave habitats with roads and pollute pristine lands.
Forest Service official meets with oil producers, ranchers The federal official who oversees the U.S. Forest Service heard from North Dakotans about oil and gas leasing and grazing during a Wednesday visit to Bismarck. U.S. Department of Agriculture Undersecretary for Natural Resources and Environment James Hubbard met with energy producers and ranchers, according to the offices of U.S. Sens. John Hoeven and Kevin Cramer, R-N.D. Among the issues discussed was the backlog of requests for oil and gas leasing permits in the Dakota Prairie Grasslands, including efforts to fill vacancies within the grasslands offices. The event comes after the Forest Service proposed a rule aimed at streamlining the process for identifying National Forest System land open for leasing, among other measures regarding oil development on federal land. Hoeven in a statement said he's also working to ensure equitable access to the grasslands for the state's ranchers. "As a western state, North Dakota has a significant presence of federal land, which carries real impacts on local industries, including our ranchers," he said. "That's why ensuring these lands are managed properly and access for local use is maintained are such important issues."
145 Progressive Groups Urge Biden to Shun Fossil Fuel Execs and Lobbyists -- A diverse coalition of nearly 150 progressive advocacy groups is demanding that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ban fossil fuel executives and lobbyists from his 2020 campaign and commit to barring them from his administration if elected in November, warning that a cabinet stocked with Big Oilrepresentatives would render empty the former vice president's vows to confront the climate crisis with ambition and urgency.In a letter Tuesday morning, 145 organizations representing a wide array of progressive interests called on Biden to "ban all fossil fuel executives, lobbyists, and representatives from any advisory or official position on your campaign, transition team, cabinet, and administration," arguing there are countless qualified experts and advocates who have not attempted to benefit financially from polluting and extractive industries. "People who left government to serve on a fossil fuel industry board, enrich themselves as oil and gas advisors, receive funding from fossil fuel companies to espouse 'reasonable' climate positions, or work with industry front groups should have no role in a Biden administration or campaign," the groups wrote. "Neither should fossil fuel backers on Wall Street, who have attempted to profit off pollution." The letter's signatories — which include Oil Change U.S., Greenpeace, Justice Democrats, Sunrise Movement, People's Action, and Public Citizen — raised alarm at a Bloomberg report earlier this month indicating that industry-tied individuals like Jason Bordoff, a member of the National Petroleum Council, are advising the Biden campaign in an informal capacity. "Joe Biden can't address the climate crisis while listening to people taking checks from the fossil fuel industry like Ernest Moniz, Jason Bordoff, Ken Salazar, and Heather Zichal," Collin Rees, senior campaigner at Oil Change U.S., said in a statement. "Biden must act boldly in collaboration with grassroots leaders fighting for environmental and climate justice — which means ruling out positions for dangerous 'all-of-the-above' boosters whose time has passed." The groups' call comes hours after Biden, speaking in the battleground state of Pennsylvania on Monday, told supporters that contrary to President Donald Trump's claims, he has no plan to ban fracking even as he pushes for large investments in clean energy. Tamara Toles O'Laughlin of 350 Action said Biden's approach to the climate emergency will be judged not by soaring rhetoric and promises but by his actions during the presidential campaign and, if elected, while in office.
Study: There's no meaningful relationship between party control and domestic oil output - There's no doubt that President Trump and Joe Biden have hugely different energy policies, but the effect of a Biden win on U.S. oil production is less certain — at least in the near- and medium-term.According to a Rystad Energy note published last week, there's no meaningful relationship between party control and domestic output, which is historically far more influenced by other forces.How much will Biden's agenda, if he wins, affect how much U.S. output bounces back from the pandemic-fueled decline from record level production before the outbreak?
- Biden is vowing to end new oil-and-gas leasing on federal lands and waters, impose new emissions regulations, boost EV deployment and more.
- But he has not called for a ban on fracking that would block development on private lands at the heart of the (now stalled) U.S. boom.
A potential fracking ban on federal acreage would hardly have any impact on nationwide oil and gas output in the medium term, given the already existing depth of low-cost inventory and activity migration," Rystad notes.
Summer Fuel Demand Disappoints, Challenging Economy – WSJ - A swift recovery in fuel consumption by U.S. drivers is petering out, posing new challenges to the oil market, economy and global energy industry. After demand for gasoline surged from mid-April to late June, consumption has stayed relatively flat in the past two months and remains well below its prepandemic levels, government data show. The fizzling rebound highlights the lingering effects of coronavirus precautions and travel restrictions. Even as some states advance business reopening plans, rising cases in other parts of the country are fueling caution among consumers. Many companies have delayed plans to reopen offices, while many school districts and colleges around the country are opening with hybrid or remote instruction, taking a bigger bite out of fuel demand.The trend is a threat to the economy because people tend to spend more money when they are moving around and engaging with businesses. Some analysts think gasoline demand will need to rise for the economic recovery to continue at its current pace, especially with many Americans avoiding public transportation due to coronavirus concerns and seeking to take vacations before summer ends. Combined with other data points showing that improvements in consumer spending and hiring are cooling, the slower increase in fuel demand illustrates that the next phase of the economic recovery could be more difficult. The stalled demand rebound is helping keep U.S. crude-oil prices stuck in the low $40s per barrel, even with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and companies from Exxon Mobil Corp. to Chevron Corp. curbing supply in response to the industry turmoil. Oil has remained in a narrow trading range for two months following a swift rebound after prices in April briefly dropped below $0 for the first time. As a result, fuel prices also have remained flat recently, a boon for those consumers who are able to take advantage at the pump but a threat to energy companies whose spending cuts and layoffs could add to the pressure on the economy.
Corps weighs Dakota Access easement options, plans to begin environmental review process _The federal agency embroiled in a lawsuit over the Dakota Access Pipeline is evaluating whether to continue allowing the line to pump oil following a court order revoking a key permit, and it plans to begin a lengthy environmental review this week. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers indicated its plans in a court filing Monday. Because U.S. District Court Judge James Boasberg revoked the pipeline’s easement in a July ruling, the pipeline is now considered an “encroachment” on federal property managed by the Corps, the agency wrote in a status report. While the Corps weighs its options, it’s allowing Energy Transfer to continue operating the pipeline under the terms of that easement. The easement allows the line to cross under the Missouri River just north of the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation. The Corps’ general policy “is to require removal of encroachments,” but it can make exceptions, the agency said. The two “most plausible options” involve removing the pipeline or giving it permission to continue using the property through a method such as granting a new easement. The Corps acknowledged that the latter option would be subject to the National Environmental Policy Act, which is at the heart of the lawsuit filed by the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe and other tribes over the pipeline. “There’s something truly upside down about the situation we’re in,” said Jan Hasselman, an attorney representing Standing Rock.Issuing a new easement after the first was found to be in violation of the law “doesn’t make any sense,” he said. The Corps indicated it might make a decision within 60 days, or it could decline to act. It’s seeking input from other federal agencies, including the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration and the Department of Energy.
North Dakota's request to dismiss road closure suit denied - A federal judge has denied North Dakota’s request to dismiss a lawsuit filed over the five-month closure of a section of highway during the large protests against the Dakota Access oil pipeline. The federal lawsuit brought by members of the Standing Rock Sioux tribe and a reservation priest in 2018 alleges that the closure of state Highway 1806 near the pipeline route north of the reservation unduly restricted travel and commerce and violated the free speech and religious rights of them and others. It seeks unspecified monetary damages from state officials, Morton County and TigerSwan, a North Carolina-based company that oversaw private security for the Texas-based pipeline developer, Energy Transfer Partners. U.S. District Judge Daniel Traynor said in his 101-page ruling issued Tuesday that the state “may not have had a compelling interest in closing the road.” Attorneys for the county and the state officials, including Republican Gov. Doug Burgum, argued in court filings that the highway shutdown was warranted because of “mayhem” caused by some of the thousands of demonstrators who gathered in the area in 2016 and early 2017 to protest the $3.8 billion pipeline, which now moves North Dakota oil to Illinois.
North Dakota blues: The legacy of fracking - When oil drillers descended on North Dakota en masse a decade ago, state officials and residents generally welcomed them with open arms. A new form of hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking" for short, would allow an estimated 3 to 4 billion barrels of so-called shale oil to be extracted from the Bakken Formation, some 2 miles below the surface. The boom that ensued has now turned to bust as oil prices sagged in 2019 and then went into free fall with the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The financial fragility of the industry had long been hidden by the willingness of investors to hand over money to drillers in hopes of getting in on the next big energy play. Months before the coronavirus appeared, one former oil CEO calculated that the shale oil and gas industry has destroyed 80 percent of the capital entrusted to it since 2008. Not long after that the capital markets were almost entirely closed to the industry as investor sentiment finally shifted in the wake of financial realities. The collapse of oil demand in 2020 due to a huge contraction in the world economy associated with the pandemic has increased the pace of bankruptcies. Oil output has also collapsed as the number of new wells needed to keep total production from these short-lived wells from shrinking has declined dramatically as well.Operating rotary rigs in North Dakota plummeted from an average of 48 in August 2019 to just 11 this month. Oil production in the state has dropped from an all-time high of 1.46 million barrels per day in October 2019 to 850,000 as of June, the latest month for which figures are available. Even one of the most ardent oil industry promoters of shale oil and gas development said earlier this year that North Dakota's most productive days are over. CEO John Hess of the eponymous Hess Corporation is taking cash flow from his wells in North Dakota and investing it elsewhere. So, what has this meant for the state? Not only is the oil industry in North Dakota suffering, but all those contractors who service the oil industry. Beyond that are the housing and public services which had to be expanded dramatically during the boom. Will there be enough people to live in that housing years from now? Will the cities be able to maintain the greatly expanded infrastructure their dwindling tax revenues must pay for? The state government relies on oil and gas revenues for 53 percent of its budget. So far those revenues are running 83 percent lower than projected for this year. In addition, the pandemic reduced other revenue sources, but those are returning to normal as the overall economy bounces back (at least for now). North Dakota's historically low unemployment rate popped from 2 percent in March to 9.1 percent in April, but has recently come down. Perhaps the most enduring legacy of the boom will be the damage to the landscape and the water in North Dakota from years of sloppy environmental practices. While companies are legally responsible for cleaning up their sites and capping old wells, in practice the state's failure to force companies to post bonds to pay for these things means much of the work will have to be done by the state or not done at all. This is because bankrupt companies are just abandoning their wells and other infrastructure. There will be no one left with money to sue to pay for the cleanup in many cases.
World’s Largest Oilfield Services Provider Sells U.S. Fracking Business - The world’s largest oilfield services provider, Schlumberger, is selling its North American fracking business to Liberty Oilfield Services for a minority stake in a new combined company after the oil price crash crushed the U.S. shale patch’s fracking activity. Schlumberger has agreed to combine its onshore hydraulic fracturing business in the United States and Canada—including its pressure pumping, pumpdown perforating, and Permian frac sand businesses—into Liberty, in exchange for a 37-percent equity interest in the combined company, the two firms said in a joint statement on Tuesday. The deal—which is subject to Liberty stockholder approval, regulatory approvals, and other customary closing conditions—is expected to close in Q4 2020. “The last several months have been extremely challenging for the world, the industry and the Liberty family. These times also bring opportunity. This transaction will be a transformative step forward in our journey as a company,” said Liberty’s chairman and CEO Chris Wright. This year, Schlumberger booked for Q2 its second straight quarterly loss on the back of a dramatic revenue slump in U.S. shale and asset impairment charges in what “has probably been the most challenging quarter in past decades,” as Le Peuch said. “North America revenue declined 48% sequentially with land revenue falling 60% as customers dramatically cut back spending,” the executive commented on the Q2 financials in July. According to Schlumberger, there are conditions for a modest increase in frac completion activity in North America in the third quarter, but if the economic recovery is slower and a second wave forces new major disruptions, they would be downside risks to its forecasts.
Schlumberger Sale Marks Shale Turning Point-- Schlumberger has become the biggest oil-service industry player yet to abandon frack work in North America, a sign that activity in the U.S. shale patch may never revisit previous highs. The provider of drilling and oil-production equipment agreed to sell its U.S. and Canadian fracking business to smaller rival Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. After similar exits over the past few years by Baker Hughes Co. and Weatherford International Plc, Halliburton Co. is now the sole global provider of well completions for shale, and even Halliburton has said it’s looking overseas for better growth. For Schlumberger, the world’s top oilfield-services company, the deal is a massive reversal from its North American buying binge over the past few years, which added frack-sand mines, artificial-lift technology and Weatherford’s frack fleet. For Liberty, meanwhile, buying Schlumberger’s OneStim unit in exchange for a 37% stake in the company means the oilfield contractor will more than double the size of its frack fleet in a market that has sidelined three-fourths of U.S. crews this year. “The Covid pandemic has thrown the world for a loop, bringing serious threats to our industry,” Chris Wright, chief executive of Denver-based Liberty, told analysts and investors Tuesday on a conference call. “But these dark hours are most fertile for opportunity.” The combination with OneStim, which is expected to close in the final three months of this year, will make Liberty the second-biggest U.S. fracker with 2.3 million horsepower, according to Citigroup Inc.
Schlumberger’s North American frac exit may signal the end of the U.S. shale boom--Schlumberger has become the biggest oil-service industry player yet to abandon frac work in North America, a sign that activity in the U.S. shale patch may never revisit previous highs. The provider of drilling and oil-production equipment agreed to sell its U.S. and Canadian fracing business to smaller rival Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. After similar exits over the past few years by Baker Hughes Co. and Weatherford International Plc, Halliburton Co. is now the sole global provider of well completions for shale, and even Halliburton has said it’s looking overseas for better growth. For Schlumberger, the world’s top oilfield-services company, the deal is a massive reversal from its North American buying binge over the past few years, which added frac-sand mines, artificial-lift technology and Weatherford’s frac fleet. For Liberty, meanwhile, buying Schlumberger’s OneStim unit in exchange for a 37% stake in the company means the oilfield contractor will more than double the size of its frac fleet in a market that has sidelined three-fourths of U.S. crews this year. “The Covid pandemic has thrown the world for a loop, bringing serious threats to our industry,” OneStim helps customers extract oil and gas from shale wells by blasting water, sand and chemicals underground to release trapped hydrocarbons. When combined with horizontal drilling, fracing launched the shale boom more than a decade ago. But now an historic crash in oil prices along with a glut of fracing gear has triggered a crisis that’s driven some fracers into bankruptcy. The combination with OneStim, which is expected to close in the final three months of this year, will make Liberty the second-biggest U.S. fracer with 2.3 million horsepower, according to Citigroup Inc. “The last several months have been extremely challenging for the world, the industry and the Liberty family,” Wright said in a statement announcing the deal. “This transaction will be a transformative step forward in our journey as a company.” Schlumberger’s sale comes less than three years after it acquired Weatherford’s fracing unit for $430 million. Liberty said Tuesday it plans to scrap 1 million horsepower -- essentially the former Weatherford fleet -- amid an industrywide glut. As shale explorers heeded investor calls rein in spending, fracing demand has dwindled. Beginning late last year, frac providers took the unusual step of scrapping much of their idle equipment. The business started to show signs of recovery at the start of 2020, until the pandemic paralyzed economic activity and the energy usage that underpins it. By July, Schlumberger was describing the decline in fracing demand as “precipitous,” contributing to a 40% plunge in second-quarter revenue.
Why Schlumberger Is Giving Away Its Fracking Business - 24/7 Wall St. Oilfield services giant Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) took a third-quarter, pretax impairment charge of $1.6 billion on its North American pressure pumping business last year. On Tuesday, the company contributed its onshore fracking business (OneStim) in the United States and Canada to Liberty Oilfield Services. In exchange, Schlumberger received a 37% stake in the expanded version of Liberty. Liberty shares closed Monday at $6.45, implying a market cap of around $550 million. The smaller company’s stock traded up by around 37% in the noon hour Tuesday, at around $8.86, implying a market cap of around $1 billion, valuing the OneStim business at right around $450 million.That tells nearly the whole story in the shale oil plays in North America. In its annual report for last year, Schlumberger said it was continuing to “right-size” its fracking capacity by stacking (mothballing) more fleets in light of lower demands. And that was before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the second quarter of this year, Schlumberger’s production revenue (including the OneStim business) fell by 48% to $1.6 billion and margins fell by 630 basis points sequentially to just 2%. North American production revenues fell by 58%. The write-down on production assets added to a total write-down of nearly $13 billion in the third quarter of last year. CEO Olivier Le Peuch had warned in September 2019 that Schlumberger would take such a write-down as the company shifted from its former strategy of taking equity positions in oil and gas assets and adopted a “focus on the company’s strength in digitization of oil and gas exploration and development.” Tuesday’s deal will help Schlumberger reach its goal of cutting 21,000 jobs and transitioning to a business model that is light on assets and heavy on technology that can be licensed to other oilfield services firms.
Fossil Fuels Are Here To Stay -- Crude oil accounted for 48.2 percent of final energy consumption globally in 1973. Forty-five years and huge renewable energy advancements later, crude oil’s share in total final energy consumption had fallen by a meager 8.6 percentage points to 40.8 percent.This is not a lot, even if we acknowledge that the drive to cut emissions started a lot later than the early 70s, so renewables have had less than 45 years to stake their claim as an alternative to fossil fuels. Speaking of which, coal’s share in the mix only fell by 3.6 percentage points in the 45-year period, to 10 percent of the total in 2018.Meanwhile, the share of electricity in this mix, thanks to renewables, went up from 9.4 percent to 19.3 percent, which is certainly impressive growth, especially given the abovementioned unequal start. But is it enough?Let’s look at the total energy supply. In 1973, crude oil accounted for 46.2 percent of the global energy supply. Gas accounted for 16 percent, and coal accounted for 24.5 percent. A category dubbed “Other” (excluding hydro, biofuels and biomass, and nuclear) accounted for 0.1 percent.Fast forward 45 years, and we have crude oil accounting for 31.6 percent of the total energy supply, gas accounting for 22.8 percent, and coal, somewhat surprisingly, rising to 26.9 percent. Meanwhile, the “Other” category has risen to 2 percent of the total. But so has total energy supply, and not by a small percentage, either. Between 1973 and 2018, global energy supply rose from 6,089 million tons of oil equivalent to more than 14,000 million tons of oil equivalent as the world’s population grew and became more affluent, driving energy demand up.It is hardly a surprise, then, that emissions have been rising, although the distribution of “responsibility” among the three fossil fuels has changed. Back in 1973, oil was the biggest emitter, accounting for 49.9 percent of the total, with gas accounting for 14.4 percent, and coal for 35.7 percent. In 2018, probably thanks to energy efficiency and the rising share of gas in electricity generation, among other things, the share of oil in total emissions fell to 43.1 percent. Meanwhile, however, coal’s share rose 44 percent, and the share of gas went up to 21.1 percent. What this suggests is what we already know: fossil fuels are cheap, which is why they are often preferred not just in regions that cannot afford to invest in wind and solar but in the world’s largest renewables investor, China, along with most other countries.
An Ecuadorian court will rule on the oil spill in the Amazon - An Ecuadorian court plans to give a ruling next Tuesday on an oil spill that contaminated several waterways in the Amazon in April, a legal process that will be preceded on Monday by a « People’s Ethical Tribunal », made up of human rights experts against those who consider responsible. The sentence will be issued in the city of Francisco de Orellana, also known as Coca, before a lawsuit for the adoption of precautionary measures in a protection action demanded by a hundred indigenous communities affected by pollution. More than 15,000 barrels, according to indigenous groups, ended up in the region’s rivers when three pipes of two oil pipelines that run from the Amazon, in the east, to the Ecuadorian coast, broke on April 7 due to a landslide in a highly seismic and eroded region. A disaster that those affected consider could have been avoided because, they affirm in a statement, « the Ministry of the Environment and the operators (of the pipelines) knew in advance of the imminent risk of the collapse that broke the pipeline, without there being evidence of the actions taken with that information. » « There is also no evidence of the deployment of effective and timely measures to contain the advance of the spill or to notify downstream communities about the dangers of contamination, » said an alliance of indigenous organizations and human rights. Those responsible for the Trans-Ecuadorian Pipeline System (SOTE), the Heavy Crude Oil Pipeline (OCP) and the Shushufindi-Quito pipeline, assure for their part that they closed the pipes as soon as they learned of their rupture, and that the spilled fuel is basically the amount remnant from the valves. And they insist that they offered water, food and doctors to the population. In addition to the companies OCP and Petroecuador, the lawsuit concerns the Ministries of Energy and Non-Renewable Natural Resources, Environment and Public Health.
Ministry monitoring Venezuelan oil storage vessel - Minister of Energy and Energy Industries, Franklin Khan, said they are closely monitoring a Venezuelan oil storage vessel which was said to be in an emergency situation near the Gulf of Paria. Khan said that the Ministry is monitoring the situation very closely regarding the NABARIMA, a floating stored oil (FSO) vessel which stores oil from the Corocoro Oil field in the Venezuelan Gulf. ‘The MEEI is monitoring the situation closely. There is currently a bi-lateral oil spill contingency plan between Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago that will govern our response to any eventuality. Parties are free to request assistance from each other.’ The Ministry said the FSO would transfer oil to tankers for shipment abroad, however because of various international sanctions, the transfer vessels have stopped operating and the FSO is now at full capacity. ‘Information coming out of Venezuela is that the ship is upright and in a stable condition pending preparation for the transfer of the cargo to a contracted vessel,’ Khan said. According to a report by Maritime Bulletin, the NABARIMA was reported to be in an emergency situation with some 173,000 tons of oil aboard, and was suffering water ingress in the engine room area, developing a starboard list.
Eni seeks US clearance to transfer Venezuelan oil - Italy's Eni is seeking clearance from US sanctions authorities to transfer oil off of an impaired floating storage unit moored off Venezuela's coast. The Nabarima floating storage and offloading unit (FSO) belongs to PetroSucre, a joint venture controlled by Venezuela's state-owned PdV. Eni holds a minority 26pc stake. The vessel has been tethered at PetroSucre's Corocoro field in the Paria Gulf for 10 years. But since production was suspended last year, it has remained idle with a full cargo of around 1.2mn bl of medium-quality crude. In recent days, workers on and off the FSO have described precarious conditions on board, including faulty equipment and internal flooding that caused the vessel to list. Repairs have since allowed the water to recede. Eni said yesterday that the FSO has been stabilized and discounted any current risk of an oil spill. In a follow-up statement today, Eni affirmed that a transfer would require US clearance. "Eni is collaborating with PetroSucre to define and implement a program for unloading the oil cargo from Nabarima. This program implies the utilization of a dynamic positioning tanker and technical services. In order to be implemented, under USA sanctions this program requires a green light." The US government has not commented on the situation. Neighboring Trinidad and Tobago has signaled concern over a possible spill and offered to provide technical assistance.
Llangennech diesel spill cleanup continues - THE oil spillage has seeped further than the contained area of the Loughor Estuary following the train derailment at Llangennech on Wednesday, August 26. Natural Resources Wales continue to monitor and carry out daily surveys around the estuary but today, Sunday, August 30, they have confirmed that the diesel has now been seen at many locations as far as Crofty – whereas it was initially contained in the upper reaches of the estuary near the Loughor Bridge and upstream. Work is still continuing to recover the diesel from the derailed wagons and that had spilled. They have dug trenches to intercept the diesel and are using vacuuming and skimming operations. All of the watercourses around the area are being monitored and NRW have confirmed that the booms and absorbent pads that are being used are working well to remove a considerable quantity of diesel from the watercourses. The shellfisheries and cockle beds in the area remain closed for the foreseeable to ensure safety. It is hoped that a crane will be delivered tomorrow, Monday, August 31 and work will begin to move the wagons on Tuesday, September 1. At 11.15pm on Wednesday, August 26, a freight train carrying 25 tank wagons with around 75.5 tonnes of diesel in each, derailed at Llangennech near Carmarthenshire. 10 of the 25 wagons were derailed, causing a large diesel spill which also seeped into the nearby Loughor Estuary, and a major fire. Residents were told to leave their homes and the two employees who were aboard the train were uninjured and able to limit the number of wagons to catch fire. It took fire crews until the morning of Friday, August 28 to extinguish the fire, which limited the initial efforts to contain the diesel due to safety and priority of extinguishing the fire. Although initial measures were put in place at a safe distance to help to limit the spill polluting the estuary. The incident is being investigated by the Rail Accident Investigation Branch and the section of the railway remains closed.
39 dolphins, 3 whales wash up on Mauritius after oil spill (AP) — The number of dead dolphins that have washed ashore on the Indian Ocean island nation of Mauritius after an oil spill has risen to 39, the government said Friday, ahead of protests this weekend against authorities’ handling of the disaster at sea. Three whales also were found dead Friday, an environmental expert said. It’s not yet clear what caused the dolphins’ deaths, but alarmed environmentalists have called for an investigation. The dolphins began washing up this week, several days after some 1,000 tons of fuel spilled from a Japanese ship that ran aground on a coral reef then split apart under the pounding surf. The country’s fisheries minister, Sudheer Maudhoo, told reporters that some dead dolphins had injuries but he denied reports that oil had been found inside them and called their deaths a “sad coincidence.” Experts were still studying the corpses. Other dolphins may have died out at sea, environmental consultant and former lawmaker Sunil Dowarkasing said Friday. “We expect that a lot more have been killed during these few days,” he said, adding that three whales also died. It was not clear what kind of whales they were. Dowarkasing believes the dolphins either died from the fuel or were poisoned by toxic materials on the ship, which was sunk offshore after the vessel split in two. Most of the remaining 3,000 tons of fuel had been pumped off the ship by then. Thousands of civilian volunteers worked for days to try to minimize the damage, creating makeshift oil barriers by stuffing fabric bags with sugar cane leaves and empty plastic bottles to keep them afloat. Environmental workers carefully ferried dozens of baby tortoises and rare plants to shore, plucking some trapped seabirds out of the goo. Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth earlier blamed bad weather for the slow response to the ship’s grounding, but Dowarkasing said “no one believes in official reports.”
Thousands march in Mauritius over dead dolphins, oil spill — Honking and drumming, tens of thousands of people protested Saturday in Mauritius over the government’s slow response to an oil spill from a grounded Japanese ship and the alarming discovery of dozens of dead dolphins in recent days. Outraged over the Indian Ocean island nation’s worst environmental disaster in years, protesters displayed signs such as “You have no shame” and “I’ve seen better Cabinets at IKEA.” “Inaction,” one protester scrawled on an inflatable dolphin held above the crowd. They marched peacefully through the capital, Port Louis, a month after the ship struck a coral reef a mile offshore. It later cracked under the pounding surf and spilled around 1,000 tons of fuel oil into fragile marine areas. “It’s clear we are at a turning point in the history of our country,” a commentary in the Le Mauricien newspaper said, as residents said the demonstration could politicize a broader section of the population. Addressing the crowd in Port Louis, some speakers called for top officials to step down. There was no immediate government comment. Other protests were reported outside the Mauritius High Commission in London and in Paris and Perth, Australia. “I’d be surprised if it’s not close to 100,000” people who attended the march, local writer Khalil Cassimally said. Public demonstrations aren’t common in Mauritius, but “one of the things that really binds people together is the sea,” he said. “It’s one of the jewels of this country, and everyone feels very passionately about this.” Another protest is planned on Sept. 12 in Mahebourg, one of the most affected coastal villages, Cassimally said. Mauritius depends heavily on tourism, and the spill has been a severe blow on top of the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which has limited international travel. Authorities on Friday said at least 39 dead dolphins have washed ashore but it’s not yet clear what killed them. The government said no fuel oil was found in two necropsies so far and called the deaths a “sad coincidence.” Civil society groups should be present as necropsies continue, and independent experts should give a second opinion, local environmental group Eco-Sud said Friday. Some experts fear water-soluble chemicals in the fuel are to blame.
Japan proposes wiping down Mauritius mangroves by hand to remove oil (Kyodo) -- Japan is proposing manually wiping down mangrove trees to remove from their roots any oil that was spilled from a grounded Japanese freighter off Mauritius in the Indian Ocean, a source familiar with the matter said Saturday. The idea, which was suggested by Japan at a Mauritian government task force meeting in late August, also involves removing any fallen leaves covered in oil. The work would be conducted by a firm entrusted by the island nation and it is up to the Mauritian government to adopt the measure, the source said. On July 25, the bulk carrier Wakashio transporting a total of some 3,800 tons of fuel oil and 200 tons of diesel, operated by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., ran aground near Pointe d'Esny, designated as a wetland of international importance under the Ramsar Convention. More than 1,000 tons of oil began leaking from the vessel on Aug. 6. According to the Japanese Environment Ministry, high-pressure washing apparatuses or chemicals should not be used to remove oil from mangrove trees as they could damage them. Japanese experts dispatched as members of a disaster relief team have confirmed the effectiveness of manually wiping the roots down by testing the method by themselves. Tokyo is considering dispatching additional experts specializing in birds and wildlife after the Mauritian government requested research into the effects of the oil spill on its native fauna. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of protesters gathered Saturday in the Mauritian capital Port Louis to accuse the government of being slow in responding to the oil spill. They demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth and government officials over the incident. A lawsuit has been filed against the country's fisheries minister Sudheer Maudhoo and environment minister Kavydass Ramano to pursue the government's responsibility. The two were summoned to appear in court on Aug. 21. Some protesters called for an investigation into the deaths of around 40 dolphins, which had washed ashore as of Saturday. Others have focused on the government's failure to provide a sufficient alert to the ship before it initially ran ashore. The government has denied the claims, insisting it had signaled a warning to the carrier but received no answer. The oil removal process has seen delays due to poor weather conditions, it added.
Two sailors killed as Mauritius oil spill clean-up boats collide - Two crew members from a tugboat involved in cleaning up an oil spill off Mauritius were killed late on Monday when their vessel collided with a barge in bad weather, the island nation's prime minister said. "It is tragic that we lost two of the tugboat crew, while two others are still missing," Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth said on Tuesday. Four other members of the crew were rescued by helicopter and two were still missing, Mahend Gungapersad, a member of parliament for the opposition Labour Party, told Reuters news agency. "We are doing everything we can to locate them, with all our means and with the help of fishermen in the area," the prime minister said as he extended his "sympathies to the family" of the slain sailors. The MV Wakashio, a Japanese bulk carrier, struck a coral reef off the Indian Ocean island nation's coast in July, spilling thousands of tonnes of crude oil into the sea and choking marine life in a pristine lagoon. According to Gungapersad, the tugboat and barge sent out distress signals between 7:30 and 8pm on Monday. The tugboat capsized after the collision. Both ships were moving parts salvaged from the site of the oil spill into the port. Jugnauth said the tug was transporting some fuel at the time "but there is no risk of a leak". He promised an investigation into the accident. The prime minister faces growing anger over his administration's handling of the oil spill, which has caused untold ecological damage to a protected coastline that sustains the island's economy.
Mauritius oil spill- Japan asked to pay $34 million for recovery - Mauritius has asked Japan to pay close to 3.6 billion yen (€28.5 billion, $34 million) in order to support local fishermen whose livelihoods were adversely impacted by an oil leak last month, according to a Mauritian government document accessed by Japanese news agency Kyodo News. The spill occurred when Japanese bulk carrier MV Wakashio, owned by Nagashiki Shipping Co., crashed into a reef off southeastern Mauritius in July. More than 1,000 tons of oil spilled into waters that are home to mangrove forests and endangered species, causing Mauritius to declare a "state of environmental emergency" on August 7. As the island nation attempts to control the spread of the fuel, there has been considerable debate over who will pay for the damage inflicted on sea life and those who are dependent on it for their livelihoods. According to the document cited by Kyodo, Mauritius has estimated a cost of over $30 million for constructing 100 fishing boats, while over $240,000 would be used for providing training to 475 fishermen and 60 skippers who may not have experience fishing in rough seas. Over $3 million has been requested for renovating Mauritius' Albion Fisheries Research Center, which was built in the 1980s with Japanese assistance. According to the Japanese agency, an official from the Embassy of Japan in Mauritius confirmed that various requests had been received. The official said, "It is true that we are currently receiving various requests. Japan is working to promptly do all that it can." Over the weekend, Mauritius saw large scale demonstrations in the capital, the biggest protests the country has seen in 40 years. Close to 75,000 protesters marched against Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth's inaction in dealing with the crisis, calling for the leader and many top officials to step down. Signs such as "Your incompetence is destroying our island," "You have no shame," and "I've seen better Cabinets at IKEA" were carried by protesters, who were also outraged over the alarming discovery of dozens of dead dolphins in recent days.
Fire Breaks Out on Oil Tanker - A fire has broken out on the Panama-flagged New Diamond oil tanker 38 nautical miles off Sangamankanda Point east of Sri Lanka, the country’s navy announced on Thursday. The navy said it responded immediately to a distress signal of an explosion of a boiler followed by a fire in the main engine room. According to the distress signal received by the Maritime Rescue Coordinating Center in Colombo, the oil tanker was manned by 23 crew members including five Greek and 18 Philippine nationals. The tanker was said to be transporting 270,000 metric tons of crude oil from the port of Mina Al Ahmadi in Kuwait to the Indian port of Paradip. In addition, 1,700 metric tons of diesel required for the use of the tanker was also said to have been stored onboard. As of September 4, the Sri Lanka Navy, Air Force, Ports Authority, the Indian Navy and the Indian Coast Guard were still working to contain the spread of the fire on board the oil tanker, the navy outlined. There is no risk of oil leakage from the vessel to the sea so far, according to the navy, which revealed that one Philippine national of the crew has not been located since the incident. “In accordance with the instructions given by the health sector in the current Covid-19 emergency situation, arrangements have been made to direct the rescued crew members to the shore for treatment and isolation following the proper health instructions,” the navy said in a statement posted on its website. “The navy has been entrusted with the responsibility for maritime search and rescue operations in Sri Lanka’s search and rescue region. Remaining true to its mandate the Navy has responded to distress calls of this nature, made by ships and craft, on numerous occasions previously,” the navy added in the statement.
Oil tanker in flames off Sri Lanka, spill possible - The vessel was carrying more than a quarter-million tons of crude oil when it caught fire. It is larger than the vessel that spilled oil near Mauritius in July. An oil tanker caught fire near the coast of Sri Lanka on Thursday as it was traveling from Kuwait to the Indian port of Paradip. Sri Lankan authorities said there was no immediate danger to the coastline should there be a leak from the New Diamond tanker, which was carrying 270,000 tons of crude and 1,700 tons of diesel. The vessel had 23 people on board, 18 Filipinos and five Greeks. One Filipino crew member was missing, another was injured. The rest were rescued by a Panama-flagged vessel, according to the Sri Lankan navy. Tugboats traveled to the scene of the fire in order to battle the blaze. "An Indian coast guard vessel and one of our ships are now in the process of dousing the flames that have spread to the deck of the tanker's service area," navy spokesman Captain Indika de Silva told French news agency AFP. The New Diamond oil tanker is classified as a very large crude carrier (VLCC) and is about 330 meters (1,080 feet) long. It is larger than the Japanese bulk carrier MV Wakashio, which crashed into a reef just off the coast from Mauritius last month and leaked more than 1,000 tons of oil into the nation's waters. Sri Lankan officials said they were hopeful that they could contain the fire on the New Diamond. But they would require help if a spill were to take place, as they do not have the proper equipment to deal with that situation. India said it was sending three naval vessels and two more coast guard vessels to deal with the fire and potential marine pollution.
Chinese And Saudi Oil Giants Book Mammoth Losses - The first two quarters of the current year have been brutal to U.S. oil and gas companies. According to Refintiv data, the energy sector has recorded the lowest Q2 2020 earnings growth rate (-168.5 percent) of any U.S. sector with earnings clocking in at -$10.5B vs. $15.3B in the year-ago comparable quarter. That's far worse than the S&P 500 average earnings growth rate of -19.1 percent when you exclude the energy sector. As expected, oilfield service companies operating in the Shale Patch have been faring worse than most thanks to huge capex cuts by producers.But U.S. shale producers can take some comfort in the fact that their counterparts elsewhere have not been doing much better.Saudi and Chinese oil and gas giants have been booking massive losses, too, proving that Covid-19 is a pandemic of equal opportunity.In the first half of 2020, Saudi oil revenue plummeted by 42.6 percent year-on-year to SAR 224.73 billion ($60.68B), compared to SAR 391.3 billion ($105.65B) for last year's corresponding period. April and May recorded the biggest revenue slumps at 65.4 percent and 66.1 percent, respectively, to SAR 24 billion ($6.48B) and SAR 23.87 billion ($6.44B), respectively. Net profit at Saudi Aramco (ARMCO) slumped 73 percent to 24.6B riyals ($6.57B) in Q2 vs. estimates of 31.3B riyals. But unlike BP Plc. and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A), which cut their dividends in recent months, the majority state-owned company maintained its Q2 dividend of $18.75B. Aramcoplans to cut 2020 capex to a range of $20-$25B in 2020 in order to pay the$75B dividend it pledged to investors during its IPO. China--the world's largest oil importer-- has been importing less from Saudi Arabia as it boosts imports from the U.S., ostensibly in a bid to fulfill its obligations for the January trade deal. Still, China is coming nowhere near holding up its end of the bargain: Last month, we reported that China's imports of U.S. energy products, including crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and metallurgical coal, clocked in at just $1.29B through June, or a mere 5 percent of the $25.3B energy target. Asia's largest oil and gas producer and China's second-largest refiner, PetroChina, has reported a first-half net loss of 29.98 billion yuan ($4.36 billion) compared with a profit of 28.42 billion yuan ($4.13B) while H1 revenue fell 22 percent to 929 billion yuan ($135.1B). That's despite crude oil output climbing 5.2 percent to 475.4 million barrels while natural gas production rose 9.4 percent to 2.15 trillion cubic feet thanks to the state giant sustaining domestic drilling in a bid to safeguard national supply security. Meanwhile, China's largest petroleum refiner, Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited, saw net losses of 22.88 billion yuan ($3.33 billion) in contrast with a net profit of 31.34 billion yuan ($4.56B) over last year's corresponding timeframe amid sluggish demand for refined products.
Saudi Aramco shelves $20 billion petrochemical plant . -- Saudi Aramco is shelving multi-billion-dollar petrochemical and gas projects as the state oil giant’s determination to preserve its dividend forces it to cut back on major investments. The world’s biggest oil company is abandoning plans to build a $20 billion crude-to-chemicals plant at Yanbu on the kingdom’s Red Sea coast, according to two people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak to the media. It’s also reviewing a decision last year to buy 25% of Sempra Energy’s liquefied natural gas terminal in Texas -- which would cost several billion dollars -- and has already taken some staff off the project, according to a separate person. Aramco declined to comment. Sempra said it continued to work with Aramco and others “to move our project at Port Arthur LNG forward.” The about-turns come as the Saudi firm tries to honor its pledge to pay a $75 billion dividend annually for the next several years. Rivals such as BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc slashed shareholder payouts as the coronavirus pandemic crushed energy demand. Oil prices have more than doubled since April to around $45 a barrel but are still down more than 30% this year. “There is excess supply in the oil market, and full recovery may not happen until 2022,” said Mazen Al Sudairi, head of research at Al Rajhi Capital in Riyadh. “It makes sense to cut capital expenditure.” Aramco’s Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser is navigating one of the oil industry’s most turbulent periods less than a year after listing the company in the Saudi capital of Riyadh. The initial public offering brought added scrutiny to the once secretive firm, though the Saudi government still owns 98% of it. Nasser has already slashed 2020 investment to as little as $25 billion from the original target of around $40 billion, and will probably reduce it even more next year. All of Aramco’s major greenfield projects -- which involve building plants from scratch -- are under review, and the company is likely to invest in existing assets instead, said one of the people. Delaying the chemical and gas projects is a blow to Aramco’s plans to diversify from pumping and selling oil. As part of that strategy, the company aimed to roughly double refining capacity to boost its unprofitable downstream unit. It also bought Saudi state chemical producer Sabic for $69 billion this year to break into new manufacturing industries. Aramco planned to build the Yanbu plant with Sabic to create a new outlet for its crude as the global shift to greener energy worsens the long-term demand outlook for petroleum products. One option for Yanbu is to build petrochemical facilities and integrate them with existing refineries, said one of the people. Aramco will finish a feasibility study by the end of the year, they said.
Saudi Arabia Keeps Oil Deliveries to America All But Halted -Saudi Arabia is continuing to divert its oil away from America’s shores. The kingdom last month loaded about 5.6 million barrels a day on to tankers, a small increase from July, vessel-tracking information compiled by Bloomberg show. Within that, an ever-smaller share went to the U.S., and import data show that deliveries in August were likely the lowest in decades. For Saudi Arabia, cutting oil shipments into the U.S. is the quickest way to telegraph to the wider market that it’s tightening supply. The U.S. government is alone among major oil-consuming nations in publishing weekly data on crude stocks and imports, which carries enormous influence among oil traders. Saudi crude exports to the U.S. dwindled to about 177,000 barrels a day in August, tracking data show. Although that number could rise as more vessels indicate their final destination, it’s still a fraction of the 1.3 million barrels a day the kingdom shipped to America in April, when the flow threatened to upend the U.S. oil market. While it’s clear that shipments on the trade route are slumping, data from vessel tracking and cargo unloadings often won’t tally perfectly with weekly import numbers produced by the Energy Information Administration. That’s because it’s not possible to know precisely when a cargo that gets unloaded will appear in the U.S. government data. The U.S. imported 355,000 barrels of Saudi crude, or about 51,000 barrels a day, in the week through Aug. 28, cargo data compiled by Bloomberg show. That entire volume arrived on the West Coast. Preliminary EIA figures for the same period show U.S. imports of Saudi crude at 197,000 barrels a day, near a record low. The EIA began publishing weekly data in 2010. Before then the figures were monthly. August’s imports work out at a rate of about 310,000 barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on EIA data for the first four weeks of the month. The last time monthly imports were lower was 1985. Government data processing and weather can further complicate the picture. A 496,000-barrel shipment of Saudi crude arrived in Port Arthur, Texas, on Aug. 21, though it wasn’t processed by customs until three days later. It’s not clear whether it was included in the EIA figures. Hurricane Laura, which battered the U.S. Gulf Coast last week, may have also affected shipments. More than 60 oil and gas tankers sought refuge in the western Gulf, waiting for the storm to pass. Only two supertankers from Saudi Arabia were scheduled to reach the region after mid-August -- others were bound for the West Coast.
Oil prices edge up on stimulus support despite ample supplies - Oil prices nudged up on Monday, with Brent futures set to post a fifth straight monthly gain, as global stimulus measures underpin prices even as demand struggles to return to pre-COVID levels in a well supplied market. Brent crude futures for November were unchanged at $45.81 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $43.05 a barrel, up 8 cents. WTI is on track for a fourth monthly rise, reaching $43.78 a barrel on Aug. 26 when Hurricane Laura struck. Oil markets largely shrugged off the hurricane's impact on Friday as energy companies continued efforts to restore operations at U.S. Gulf Coast offshore platforms and refineries shut before the storm. A weak U.S. dollar has supported oil prices even though fuel demand has struggled to recover amid the coronavirus pandemic and supplies remain excessive, although crude may face hurdles going forward, analysts said. "We believe that the impact of a cheaper dollar from current levels will see a minimal impact on crude purchases, irrespective of slightly more favorable crude pricing," RBC Capital's Mike Tran said in an Aug. 27 note. "The relationship between demand and price elasticity is blunted in the current environment, because oil is already cheap and readily available and there currently exist a dearth of buyers." China's crude imports in September are set to fall for the first time in five months as record volumes of crude are storedin and outside of the world's largest importer, data from Refinitiv and Vortexa showed. Reflecting concerns about rising supplies and sluggish global economic recovery, hedge funds and money managers cut bullish wagers on U.S. crude to the lowest level in nearly four months, data showed on Friday. Higher oil and gas prices are also encouraging U.S. producers to resume drilling as the country's oil and gas rig count rose by three to 254 in August, according to data from energy services firm Baker Hughes Co. Separately, Saudi Aramco discovered two new oil and gas fields in the northern regions, the kingdom's energy minister said on Sunday, state news agency SPA reported.
Oil moves lower, but posts fourth straight positive month as demand rebounds -- Oil prices were little changed on Monday, with Brent slipping from a five-month high as global demand struggled to return to pre-COVID levels in a well supplied market. Brent crude futures for November stood at $45.79 a barrel, down 2 cents. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 36 cents, or 0.8%, lower at $42.61 per barrel. Brent is set to close out August with a fifth successive monthly price rise, while WTI is on track for a fourth monthly gain, having hit a five-month high of $43.78 a barrel on Aug. 26 when Hurricane Laura struck. With the economic recovery from coronavirus lockdowns still muted, some analysts said the market could remain oversupplied with fuel. "The issues over demand just aren't showing signs of any real improvement," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. "That's what's holding us back." Abu Dhabi National Oil Company told its customers on Monday it will reduce October supplies by 30%, up from a 5% cut in September, as directed by the United Arab Emirates government to meet its commitment on the recent OPEC+ agreement. "With demand gradually recovering, this will allow the market to better absorb the inventory glut from earlier this year," OCBC's economist Howie Lee said. Energy companies continued efforts to restore operations at U.S. Gulf Coast offshore platforms and refineries shut before the storm. A weak U.S. dollar and a survey on Monday showing strength in China's services sector supported oil prices even though fuel demand has struggled to recover amid the coronavirus pandemic and supplies remain ample, analysts say, cautioning of hurdles for crude going forward. China's crude imports in September are set to fall for the first time in five months as record volumes of crude are stored in and outside of the world's largest importer, data from Refinitiv and Vortexa showed.
Oil Gains on Weak Dollar - -- Oil rose to trade near $43 a barrel in New York with support from a weaker dollar, while U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to fall further. Futures added 1.2% after the U.S. currency extended losses to the lowest level since May 2018, making commodities priced in the dollar more appealing. Crude inventories fell by 2 million barrels last week for a sixth weekly draw, according to a Bloomberg survey, which would be the longest run of declines this year. Meanwhile, AstraZeneca Plc has started a large-scale human trial of its coronavirus vaccine in the U.S. as many major economies struggle to contain the outbreak that has hit oil and fuel demand. Oil capped a fourth monthly gain in August but has struggled to make a convincing push above $43 a barrel as rising coronavirus infections raised concerns about sustained demand. However, the biggest producer in the United Arab Emirates signaled it may slash output in October to meet the country’s target under a global production-cuts deal, helping to ease a global glut. “The market is playing a wait-and-see approach,” said Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “With some indicators showing that demand recovery is waning and supply is picking up, prices may move in a downward trend in the next couple of months.” West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose 49 cents to $43.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:55 a.m. London time after losing 1.8% in the previous three sessions Future climbed 5.8% last month. Brent futures for November settlement gained 1.2% to $45.82 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after falling 1.2% on Monday. U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell by 3.55 million barrels last week, according to the survey. That would be a fourth weekly draw if confirmed by Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday. Industry figures are due Tuesday. However, demand concerns still linger. Virus cases in the U.S. topped 6 million, while Covid-19 fatalities in India surpassed Mexico’s, giving it the third-largest death toll globally. The headwinds may force top crude exporter Saudi Aramco to slash the price of its flagship Arab Light crude by $1 a barrel for October sales to Asian customers as refiners struggle to make profits.
Oil prices rise on improving economic data - Oil prices rose on Tuesday, reversing overnight losses as better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing activity data spurred hope for a post-pandemic economic recovery, and as analysts forecast a sixth weekly drawdown in U.S. crude inventories. The dollar was at it lowest in more than two years against a basket of currencies, pressured by the U.S. Federal Reserve's loosening of inflation policy last week, which was supportive for oil as dollar-priced commodities become cheaper for global buyers. Brent crude futures gained 30 cents, or 0.66%, to settle at $45.58 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 15 cents, or 0.4%, higher at $42.76 per barrel. "Everyone is looking for a draw, of one degree or another, in the API this afternoon," "The manufacturing numbers and the bullishness around the AstraZeneca virus vaccine added to the optimism," he said. U.S. crude stocks were forecast to have fallen by about 2 million barrels last week, according to analysts in a Reuters poll ahead of weekly data from the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 p.m. ET (2030 GMT) and the government on Wednesday. Gasoline inventories were expected to have fallen by 3.6 million barrels. U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated to a more than 1-1/2-year high in August amid a surge in new orders, but employment continued to lag, supporting views that the labor market recovery was losing momentum. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity increased to a reading of 56.0 last month from 54.2 in July. That was the highest level since January 2019 and marked three straight months of growth. Strong Chinese manufacturing data also lifted oil prices, said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at OANDA. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index(PMI) showed China's factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in nearly a decade last month, bolstered by the first increase in new export orders this year. Bulls also pushed up equities, with the MSCI world equity index close to a record peak on Tuesday. Yet oil, which often moves in tandem with equities, remains reined in by demand concerns. In a Reuters poll of 43 analysts and economists, global oil demand was seen contracting by between 8-10 million barrels per day (bpd) versus July's 7.2-8.5 million bpd consensus. Brent was forecast to average $42.75 a barrel in 2020, up from July's $41.50 consensus and compared with an average price of $42.60 so far this year. Brent is expected to average $50.45 in 2021.
U.S. oil prices log first gain in 4 sessions as upbeat economic data boost demand prospects - - Oil futures notched modest gains on Tuesday, with U.S. prices up for the first time in four sessions, finding support as some economic data show signs of recovery, boosting prospects for energy demand. Prices are “aided by broader economic sentiment,” said Robbie Fraser, senior commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, in a Tuesday note. “Relatively bullish Chinese manufacturing data has reinforced the view that East Asia continues to push closer to pre-COVID demand levels—a core component of any long-term oil price recovery. In the U.S. Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 56% in August, up a fourth month in a row, from 54.2% in July. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery CL.1, -0.65% CLV20, -0.65% on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 15 cents, or nearly 0.4%, to settle at $42.76 a barrel, while November Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled 30 cents, or 0.7%, higher at $45.58 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Earlier weakness in the dollar had provided a lift to dollar-denominated oil prices, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, touching 91.746, its lowest since 2018. The index, however, moved up in the wake of a better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing survey reading. Oil futures lost ground Monday but WTI logged its fourth straight monthly rise and Brent rose for a fifth straight month. In other energy trading Tuesday, October gasoline rose 0.9% to $1.2247 a gallon, while October heating oil added 1.1% at $1.2308 a gallon.
WTI Rebounds On Hurricane-Driven Crude Draw, Production Plunge --Oil is tumbling this morning following 'Russia poisoned Navalny with Novichok' headlines combined with reports that OPEC’s key ally also raised oil production last month.The nation pumped 41.7 million tons of crude and condensate in August, preliminary data from the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit show, up 5.1% from July, when lower OPEC+ quotas were in force.This week's data will start to show the effects of Hurricane Laura's destructive trip through the Gulf states. DOE:
- Crude -9.36mm (-2.0mm exp)
- Cushing +110k
- Gasoline -4.32mm
- Distillates -1.675mm
US crude stocks tumbled 9.36mm barrels last week amid Hurricane Laura production shut-ins. Gasoline and Distillate stocks also declined as refineries were forced to close... Hurricane Laura's effect on US crude production is clear as over 80% of the Gulf was shut in... US Crude production plunged 1.1mm b/d last week...(graphs source: Bloomberg)Having traded at around $43 for a week or so, WTI was slammed lower ahead of the DOE data and spiked back higher after the big crude and gasoline draws... Let's see how long this bounce lasts. Catherine Ngai, Bloomberg's oil trading reporter, sums it up perfectly: "Important to remember that so many numbers here in today’s data will be impacted by Hurricane Laura. So please take it all with a grain of salt!"
Oil drops 3% to one-month low on weak U.S. gasoline demand - Oil fell more than 2% on Wednesday, reversing course as gasoline demand fell in the United States in the latest week, an indication that economic recovery from the pandemic may be slower than expected. Futures prices turned negative after weekly government data from the U.S. showed lower gasoline demand from a week earlier, shrugging off bullish crude inventory data. "The market is trying to dismiss the number as a storm-related one-off," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. "While the storm may have exaggerated the numbers, it doesn't justify the amount of the sell-off that we got." Crude inventories fell by 9.4 million barrels in the last week to 498.4 million barrels, a far steeper dive than the 1.9 million-barrel drop that analysts expected in a Reuters poll. The data reflects a period during which Hurricane Laura shut output and refining facilities. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell $1.15, or 2.5%, to settle at $44.43 per barrel, after two days of price gains. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 2.9%, or $1.25, lower at $41.51 per barrel. Oil has recovered from historic lows hit in April, when Brent slumped to a 21-year low below $16 and U.S. crude ended one session in negative territory. A record supply cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, has supported prices. The producers have begun to return some crude to the market as demand partially recovers and OPEC in August raised output by about 1 million barrels per day (bpd), a Reuters survey found on Tuesday.
The weak dollar is the 'only support' for oil prices, analyst says - Oil prices are likely to continue creeping up simply due to a weak dollar, an analyst said on Thursday. "As far as fundamentals are concerned, there is really not much to move oil around either way, which is why we have seen it pretty range bound, but within that continuing to grind higher because of a weaker dollar," said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, an energy consultancy. "That's been the only support, I would say." Like most commodities traded internationally, oil is denominated in dollars, so a weaker greenback lends support to prices. In March, a futures contract for U.S. crude prices dropped more than 100% and turned negative for the first time in history as demand collapsed due to the coronavirus pandemic. There was a slight rebound in crude oil prices through May and June as economies reopened after lockdowns to contain the coronavirus. But oil demand has fallen in July and August in some countries like India, while flatlining in others, she told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." On Thursday, international benchmark Brent crude oil futures were trading around $44.50 a barrel at 10:36 a.m. HK/SIN, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were around $41.65 a barrel. Hari said the greenback is likely to remain under pressure through 2021 as it would be in the interest of the U.S. economy to keep the dollar lower. This will give some lift to crude oil prices. U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts "to keep the U.S. stock markets buoyant" will also help, said Hari. That would include lots of monetary and fiscal stimulus and positive news on a coronavirus vaccine. "These measures will keep risk-on trade, it will keep sentiment quite buoyant in larger global financial markets," said Hari. "To some extent, I think it will support sentiment in oil, it will prop up oil."
Oil closes slightly lower, regaining most of an early 3% drop - Oil prices fell on Thursday, at one point touchig their lowest since early August as U.S. unemployment data fed fears of a slow recovery for the economy and fuel demand a day after weak U.S. gasoline demand data. Brent crude fell 30 cents, or 0.7%, to $44.13 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 14 cents, or 0.34%, lower at $41.37 per barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than 2% earlier in the session. U.S. stock prices sank as investors sold high-flying tech stocks and worried about economic recovery after Labor Department data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment reached a seasonally adjusted 881,000 for the latest week. Continuing claims remained high, with millions out of work. A day earlier both oil benchmarks fell more than 2% after U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed domestic gasoline demand last week fell to 8.78 million barrels per day (bpd) from 9.16 million bpd a week earlier. Consumption of other oil products also fell. "The market failed to react positively to the drawdown in inventories and then threw in the towel for the Labor Day weekend," Analysts warn that upcoming refinery maintenance and the end of the summer driving season could also limit crude demand. WTI crude has come under pressure "after U.S. refiners earmarked a long list of maintenance closures over the coming months that will no doubt impact demand for crude oil", ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday. Due to shutdowns ahead of Hurricane Laura, U.S. refinery utilization rates fell by 5.3 percentage points to 76.7% of total capacity, the EIA said. Some analysts believe processing will not rebound in the fall. "These factors suggest a seasonal drop-off in refinery runs and higher oil inventory levels as we advance through September," AxiCorp market strategist Stephen Innes said.
Oil prices continue to slide as U.S. data feeds fuel demand worry - (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Thursday, at one point touching their lowest since early August as U.S. unemployment data fed fears of a slow recovery for the economy and fuel demand a day after weak U.S. gasoline demand data. Brent crude LCOc1 settled down 36 cents, or 0.8%, to $44.07 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures were down 14 cents, or 0.3%, at $41.37 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than 2% earlier in the session. U.S. stock prices sank as investors sold high-flying tech stocks and worried about economic recovery after Labor Department data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment reached a seasonally adjusted 881,000 for the latest week. Continuing claims remained high, with millions out of work. A day earlier both oil benchmarks fell more than 2% after U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed domestic gasoline demand last week fell to 8.78 million barrels per day (bpd) from 9.16 million bpd a week earlier. Consumption of other oil products also fell. [EIA/S] “The market failed to react positively to the drawdown in inventories and then threw in the towel for the Labor Day weekend,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. Analysts warn that upcoming refinery maintenance and the end of the summer driving season could also limit crude demand. WTI crude has come under pressure “after U.S. refiners earmarked a long list of maintenance closures over the coming months that will no doubt impact demand for crude oil”, ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday.
Oil prices fall below $40 on mounting demand concerns --Oil in New York closed below $40 a barrel for the first time in a month as a selloff in broader markets exacerbated concerns over weakening demand following a sluggish summer driving season. U.S. benchmark crude futures tumbled nearly 4% on Friday, leading oil to post its worst week since June. Stocks weakened and the S&P 500 Index dropped more than 3% before easing losses. Meanwhile, the upcoming U.S. Labor Day holiday will mark an informal end to the summer driving months and a customary drop-off in demand is looming with refineries soon shutting for seasonal maintenance. “It’s a big psychological level” “Settlement below $40 a barrel and the fact that we have turnaround season,” creates conditions where it’s “impossible make a bullish argument.” Crude is off to a weak start in September as coronavirus flare-ups in various parts of the world threaten a sustained rebound in oil consumption at a time when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are returning oil to the market and easing historic output curbs. Russia’s energy minister said demand has returned to 90% of pre-Covid levels, but limited travel and work from home arrangements are slowing down the recovery. “This has been the summer driving season that wasn’t,” “The demand situation just continues to haunt this market.” Meanwhile, key refineries are still recovering from storms that swept through the U.S. Gulf Coast last week. Citgo Petroleum Corp. and Phillips 66Lake Charles refineries in Louisiana may be facing many more weeks of downtime as they wrestle with loss of power and damage related to Hurricane Laura. West Texas Intermediate fell $1.60 to settle at $39.77 a barrel in New York, the lowest level since early July. Prices dropped 7.5% decline this week, the biggest weekly loss since June. Brent for November settlement dropped $1.41 to end the session at $42.66 a barrel. Plus, with profit margins so low, “refineries are not really in a rush to come back into service after Laura,” said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. “That is bearish to crude because we do have some pretty good stockpiles right now.”
Oil drops nearly 4% to end the week lower, snapping four-week win streak - Oil prices fell more than 3% on Friday, headed for their biggest weekly decline since June as concern around a slow economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic added to worries about weak oil demand. Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled $1.41, or 3.2%, lower at $42.66 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.60, or 3.8%, to settle at $39.77 per barrel. Prices were pressured by extended declines in the U.S. equities market and by a report showing U.S. job growth slowed further in August as financial assistance from the government ran out. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 1.37 million jobs last month, though employment remained 11.5 million below its pre-pandemic level and the jobless rate was 4.9 percentage points higher than in February. The unemployment rate fell to 8.4% last month, compared with a forecast 9.8%, which some market analysts said would lessen urgency in Washington, D.C. to pass additional economic stimulus legislation. "The hopes for more stimulus are going out the window," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. "We need to see economic activity back up to get demand flowing." A U.S. government report this week showed domestic gasoline demand has fallen again, while middle distillate inventories at Asia's Singapore oil hub have surpassed a nine-year high, official data showed. . "The bigger market picture is overall bearish sentiment that kicked off with lower gasoline demand reports on Wednesday," said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, analyst at Rystad Energy. Global oil demand could fall by 9-10 million barrels per day (bpd) this year due to the pandemic, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. A record supply cut since May by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, has supported prices. OPEC began in August to ease the scale of the cuts, raising output by almost 1 million bpd, according to a Reuters survey.
U.S. oil benchmark ends below $40 a barrel, down over 7% for the week – While the Dow skidded 600 points on Friday, oil futures closed below $40 a barrel for the first time since early July. The drop contributed to a loss for the week amid concerns over prospects for demand, losses in the stock market and strength in the U.S. dollar pushing prices to their lowest in nearly two months. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery fell $1.60, or 3.9%, to settle at $39.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November Brent, the global benchmark, lost $1.41, or 3.2%, at $42.66 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both crude benchmarks settled at their lowest since July 9, based on the front-month contracts, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Oil was pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar, as it also got “swept up in the wave of risk-off sentiment and selling in broader markets,” Matt Smith, director of commodity research, at ClipperData, told MarketWatch. The dollar was trading 0.4% higher for the week, as gauged by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the buck’s strength against a half-dozen currencies. The greenback got a boost Friday, in part, from better-than-expected monthly U.S. employment data, which revealed a drop to 8.4% in the August unemployment rate, from 10.2%. Oil demand also continues to be a key concern. “Crude demand in the U.S. is being reined in, driven by weaker crack spreads as a result of stymied product demand and elevated inventories—particularly relating to middle distillates,” said Smith. Crack spreads refer to the price difference between crude oil and the products refined from it and middle distillates include heating oil and diesel.
Greek-Turkish standoff escalates war danger in eastern Mediterranean - The escalating confrontation in the eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece has reached a new and dangerous stage. Top officials of NATO member states are openly threatening to wage war against one another in conflicts that could set the Mediterranean and the world ablaze. Last Thursday, Turkish F-16 jets blocked Greek F-16s off Crete from overflying disputed zones of the eastern Mediterranean where Turkey is drilling for oil and gas. In July, Greek and Turkish naval flotillas steamed directly towards each other, avoiding a clash only at the last minute when Berlin intervened, calling Ankara and ordering the Turkish ships to change course. Tensions escalated in August, when France dispatched two warships and Rafale jets to back Greece. The European Union (EU) foreign ministers meeting on Friday in Berlin marked a further shift to a more aggressive stance, backing Greece against Turkey. After the meeting, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borell said: “We are clear and determined in defending European Union interests and solidarity with Greece and Cyprus. Turkey has to refrain from unilateral actions.” Borell indicated the EU could adopt economic sanctions to strangle the Turkish economy later this month. While thanking “the efforts deployed by Germany in this attempt to look for solutions through dialogue between Turkey and Greece and Cyprus,” he expressed the EU’s “growing frustration” with Turkey and proposed sanctions against Turkish officials. He added that broader “restrictive measures could be discussed at the European Council on 24-25 September.” In follow-up questions, Borell explained that the EU could target industries “in which the Turkish economy is more interrelated with the European economy.” The same day, President Emmanuel Macron issued an extraordinary threat, comparing French deployments in Greece to the “red line” policy that saw France, Britain and the United States bomb Syria. This 2018 bombing, based on fraudulent allegations that the Syrian regime had used chemical weapons, led Moscow to accelerate its build-up of Syrian air defences. Macron said his policy is based on the view that aggressive military action is the only way forward. “When it comes to Mediterranean sovereignty, I must be consistent in deeds and word,” he said. “I can tell you that the Turks only consider and respect that. If you say words that are not followed by acts ... What France did this summer was important: it’s a red line policy. I did it in Syria.” Turkish officials responded this weekend by warning that the Greek policy backed by the EU could provoke war. They cited Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ threats to expand Greece’s exclusive economic zone from six to 12 miles—including around Greek islands directly off the coast of Turkey—and reports that Greece is strengthening its ground forces on these islands. “This would be grounds for war, a casus belli,” declared Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, while Vice President Fuat Oktay said: “If it is not grounds for war, what is it?”
How Should the European Union Respond to Rising Greece-Turkey Tensions? --The European Union is seeking to mediate in a naval confrontation on its doorstep, in the Eastern Mediterranean, which involves NATO partners Greece and Turkey, as well as EU member Cyprus.EU foreign ministers are discussing the issue and, without de-escalation, sanctions against Turkey could be implemented. But so far, the two most powerful EU nations have adopted a ‘good cop, bad cop’ approach that conveys different and confusing messages – and has not prevented escalation. Chancellor Angela Merkel, with the added authority of holding the EU’s six-month revolving presidency, has launched a German initiative to prevent escalation, reduce tensions and overcome longstanding conflicts. But French President Emmanuel Macron, while not eschewing mediation, has opted for a show of force, sending French naval vessels into disputed waters to counter the presence of Turkish warships. The dispute is ostensibly over ownership of offshore gas deposits and the delimitation of 200-mile exclusive economic zones (EEZs).Turkey has sent exploration vessels and warships into waters claimed by Greece and Cyprus and begun drilling for gas. Despite its 1,600 kilometre Mediterranean coastline, Turkey is the only Eastern Mediterranean state without internationally recognised rights to offshore resources in the area because nearby Greek islands and Cyprus have secured the right to generate EEZs under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Turkey is one of fifteen UN members that is not a party to UNCLOS, and Ankara insists that Turkey’s continental shelf gives it ownership rights that take priority over the UNCLOS-backed claims of Cyprus and Greece. But the dispute also reflects deep-rooted rivalries. Greece and Turkey are at loggerheads over the division of Cyprus and rival maritime claims in the Aegean. Ankara asserts the right of ‘the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus’, recognized only by Turkey, to a share of offshore gas resources. The government of the Republic of Cyprus accepts in principle the rights of Turkish Cypriots to a stake in the country’s energy resources, but this commitment has yet to be tested as Cyprus is still seeking investors to fund the infrastructure to bring deep-water Cypriot gas to market. Differences over offshore gas have also been exacerbated by the Libya conflict, with Greece and Turkey supporting opposing sides. Turkey concluded a delimitation agreement with Libya in 2019, which sweeps aside Cypriot and Greek claims. Greece responded in August by inking a partial maritime delimitation agreement with Egypt which is incompatible with Turkish claims. Greek and Turkish vessels collided at sea in mid-August and there is a risk of further clashes. In January, Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority set up the Eastern Mediterranean Energy Forum, which Ankara views as threatening Turkish interests.
"Poisons Regional Peace": Turkey Enraged After US Lifts Decades-Old Arms Embargo On Cyprus The timing significantly comes amid Turkey's Mediterranean gas exploration standoff with Greece and Cyprus, which this past weekend very nearly resulted in shots fired, as the conflict gets increasingly militarized: the US has announced it will lift a decades-old arms embargo on Cyprus. For now, the US move will only allow "non-lethal" military items to be exported to EU member Cyprus. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo relayed the change to Republic of Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades in a Tuesday phone call. Pompeo further "reaffirmed US support for a comprehensive settlement to reunify the island" - given the arms embargo was imposed in the first place in 1987 in the hope it would encourage reunification, following Turkey's military invasion and occupation of the northern half of the island since 1974. President Anastasiades welcomed the temporary sanctions lifting, while predictably Turkey sees it as a direct threat, urging Washington to reverse course: "It poisons the peace and stability environment in the region," the Turkish foreign ministry said, adding it does "not comply with the spirit of alliance" between the US and Turkey. If Washington did not reverse course, the ministry said, "Turkey, as a guarantor country, will take the necessary decisive counter steps to guarantee the security of the Turkish Cypriot people, in line with its legal and historical responsibilities. But Pompeo reaffirmed on Twitter that "Cyprus is a key partner in the Eastern Mediterranean," and added, "We will waive restrictions on the sale of non-lethal defense articles and services to the Republic of Cyprus for the coming fiscal year."
COLUMN- China's aluminum import surge a sign of global disconnect: Andy Home – (Reuters) - China imported more aluminium than it exported in July. This is a very rare phenomenon. China, after all, is the world’s largest producer of the light metal, accounting for 57% of global output in the same month, according to the International Aluminium Institute. It is normally a huge exporter of semi-manufactured products (“semis”) - around 5.2 million tonnes in both 2018 and 2019 - with no need to call on extra supply from the international market. The last time China turned net importer was in 2009. Now, as then, the inversion in trade flows speaks to the disconnect between a Chinese market that is in full recovery mode and the rest of the world that is struggling to get back on its feet. Most expect this import surge to be short-lived, as it was in 2009, but the world has changed since then and it’s possible we’re also seeing underlying structural shifts in the aluminium market. China imported 123,000 tonnes of primary aluminium in June and another 185,000 tonnes in July. The two-month count already exceeds every yearly total since 2013 and most analysts think there is more to come. What’s sucking this metal into China is an open arbitrage window between elevated Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) prices and a lagging London Metal Exchange (LME). The cash arbitrage between the two contracts flexed out to a seven-year high above 2,000 yuan per tonne at one stage in July. Aluminium prices in both markets troughed in March but the Shanghai market has led the recovery, consistently outperforming the LME price. To some extent this simply reflects China’s resurgent manufacturing sector, which is benefiting from a more metals-heavy infrastructure boost than was widely expected. It’s why China’s copper imports are also booming and why the country’s steel production is running so strongly right now. In the case of aluminium, though, recovery exuberance has been complemented by physical disruption in the country’s complex supply chains. China’s first-quarter lockdown seems to have opened up supply gaps for specific products, particularly some forms of primary metal. Local producers, meanwhile, seem to have responded to the first-quarter price collapse by stopping sales and accumulating stocks, helped by local governments’ sudden enthusiasm for building “strategic” reserves. It’s noticeable that the Shanghai contract remains fully backwardated along the forward curve, the cash premium still signalling availability issues. However, the arbitrage window with London is now closing, which should mean these primary metal imports abate after a month or so of catch-up physical shipments. The same, though, may not hold true of another sort of aluminium that is being imported. ALLOY FOR SCRAP Imports of unwrought aluminium alloy have also surged over the past few months. Indeed, the June-July tally of 302,000 tonnes is unprecedented, even during the financial crisis. The gaping arbitrage window is also a prime driver of this flood but the current deluge masks an underlying change of trade pattern. China has historically exported more alloy than it has imported. Alloy is a product generated from scrap metal and used mainly for die-cast parts in vehicles, which means trade flows have largely been shaped by Asian automotive companies’ off-shoring in China. However, China turned a net importer of alloy in December last year, well before COVID-19 and the London-Shanghai price disconnect. Net alloy imports so far this year are running at 524,000 tonnes. The last year China imported more alloy than it exported was in 2005 and the net total was just 27,000 tonnes.
Asia Today: Beijing receiving 1st int'l flights since March (AP) — Beijing’s main international airport on Thursday began receiving international flights again from a limited number of countries considered at low risk of coronavirus infection. Passengers flying in from Cambodia, Greece, Denmark, Thailand, Pakistan, Austria, Canada and Sweden must have first shown a negative coronavirus test before boarding, city government spokesperson Xu Hejian told reporters. Passenger arrivals will be limited to roughly 500 per day during a trial period and all will need to undergo additional testing for the virus on arrival, followed by two weeks of quarantine. The first flight under the arrangement, Air China Flight 746, arrived from Pnom Penh, Cambodia, just before 7 a.m. Beginning in March, all international flights to Beijing had been redirected to a dozen other cities where passengers were tested and processed before being allowed to travel on to the Chinese capital. China has gone weeks without new cases of local infection and the 11 new cases recorded Thursday were all imported. Beijing’s last local outbreak in July was linked to a wholesale food market, and the city’s customs department announced Wednesday it would test all imported frozen foods, along with other goods arriving from countries considered to be at high risk. Storage and transportation facilities for imported food would also be disinfected and Beijing customs would work with other cities to ensure the safety of the supply chain.
Indian Economy Shrank Record 23.9% Last Quarter - WSJ—India’s economy shrank by a record 23.9% last quarter—the biggest blow the coronavirus pandemic has dealt to a major economy so far—as a nationwide lockdown and fear of the fast-spreading pandemic strangled spending.Gross domestic product took a beating in the April-through-June quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier, according to government data released Monday.That is the worst decline among all the major world economies that have announced GDP figures for the quarter, according to the latest tally from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. It is also India’s worst decline since 1996, when it started reporting quarterly numbers.India’s lockdown, beginning in late March, was among the strictest in the world, shutting down virtually every nonessential part of the economy. Yet it managed only to delay the virus’s spread, which continued to crush economic activity after the lockdown began easing in May just as outbreaks started to hit India’s densely populated cities.Investment plummeted by 47% in the quarter, while consumer spending fell by almost 27%. Government spending grew by 16% but wasn’t enough to overcome the pandemic downdraft.Economists said the activity picked up when the lockdown lifted, but so far has remained subdued as the virus has spread from the cities to rural areas. India has more than 3.5 million confirmed infections and 60,000 deaths from the virus. With more than 75,000 new cases a day recently—more than any other country in the world—India is expected to surpass Brazil and the U.S. eventually to lead the world in total reported cases. That means India’s economy is likely to struggle, or even shrink, in each of the next two quarters as companies and consumers remain hesitant, “The virus is fast moving to rural geographies and the hot spots in megacities are getting worse,” she said. “That will make India’s road to recovery longer.”India’s GDP is expected to contract more than 5% in the current fiscal year, which goes through next March, according to many economists’ estimates. If that happens it would be its worst performance in decades.
Australia Plunges Into First Recession In 29 Years Following Biggest GDP Drop On Record - Nothing good lasts forever, as Australia just discovered when after seemingly defeating the gravity of the business cycle and lasting a record 29 year without an economic contraction, the country tumbled head first into its first recession in almost 30 years, which also happened to be the worst on record as its Q2 GDP plunged -6.3% Y/Y, worse even than the consensus estimate of a -6.0% drop.GDP plunged 7% sequentially from the first three months of the year - hammered by the renewed Covid outbreak and lockdown in Victoria state - the first back-to-back quarterly declines since 1991. The sequential drop also was larger than economist forecasts of a 6% drop.As Bloomberg notes, "Australia’s record run of avoiding two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, which included avoiding recessions during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the Dot Com Bubble and the 2008 global financial crisis, has come to an end with the largest contraction on record according to ABS data dating back to 1959. It now joins much of the world in succumbing to a pandemic-induced downturn."The report also showed:
- Household spending plunged 12.1%, subtracting 6.7 percentage points from GDP; government spending rose 2.9%, adding 0.6 percentage point
- Investment in new and used dwellings fell 7.3% in the quarter
- Net exports contributed 1 percentage point to GDP
- Just like in the US, the savings rate soared, hitting 19.8%, the highest rate since 1974
Australia’s desire to declare an early victory against covid which was accompanied by an early lifting of restrictions and reopening of its economy, proved catastrophic and has been offset by an almost two-month lockdown in Melbourne, the nation’s second-largest city with about 5 million people, crushing any hopes of a recovery.In March, Australia's Reserve Bank cut its cash rate to a record-low 0.25% and set the same target for the three-year bond yield as it aims to lower borrowing costs across the economy. As Bloomberg notes, the RBA predicts the renewed lockdown will lift unemployment to about 10% later this year.
Covid-19 Pandemic Ravages World’s Largest Developing Economies – WSJ - From India to Mexico and Brazil, the world’s biggest developing countries are witnessing some of the steepest economic contractions on record, throwing tens of millions out of work and turning back the clock on gains against poverty. Developing nations haven’t felt this kind of pain since the Great Depression. India’s economy shrank by nearly a quarter, 23.9%, during the April to June period compared with a year earlier, its worst performance since quarterly figures began in 1996. Peru’s economy contracted by 32% during that same period from a year earlier, Mexico’s by 18.9%, Brazil’s by 11% and Turkey’s by 9.5%. While the coronavirus pandemic has caused similar economic pain in richer nations, the fallout for developing nations is different in two key ways: First, the pandemic continues to tear through many developing countries. India has the world’s highest toll of daily new cases, and the U.S. is the only rich nation in the top 10 of daily Covid-19 deaths. The longer the pandemic drags on, the longer the economic pain. Secondly, developing nations have far fewer resources to spend protecting their workers and companies from the economic fallout. While rich nations can simply print more money or take on debt at a low cost, such a move by developing nations might create more economic instability by sparking a selloff of the local currency. “On average, the economic contraction of developed countries and emerging markets will not be too different this year. But the big difference is related to employment, as developing countries are less able to support workers,” said Eric Parrado, chief economist of the Inter-American Development Bank. The pandemic has already destroyed close to 26.5 million jobs in Latin America, more than Florida’s entire population, he said. Brazil’s right-wing government of President Jair Bolsonaro embarked on one of the largest aid programs to offset the pandemic, handing out $100 a month to individuals and double that to families. But that compares with $600 a week—some $2,400 a month—given out by the U.S. government to unemployed workers in addition to unemployment benefits. Unlike in rich countries, lockdowns in many developing nations were less effective at stopping the virus in its tracks, partly because many people don’t have savings and can’t afford to stop working. While European economies are starting to recover after most of their restrictions were lifted earlier this summer, cases and deaths have continued to climb in India and much of South America. Peru, Colombia and Argentina have all extended travel and other restrictions.
COVID-19 pandemic leads to huge spike in global hunger - The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a world hunger crisis of historic proportions. Despite advances in agriculture and global food surpluses, an additional 132 million more people will go hungry than previously predicted this year. According to some projections, before the year’s end, more people will die every day from starvation brought about by the pandemic than from the disease itself. As a result of the pandemic, immense amounts of food are being destroyed because of the breakdown in global food supply chains while workers and peasants have less money to purchase food with as a result of the global economic collapse. Though the pandemic has severely exacerbated the crisis, it should be noted that global hunger was already rising in the years before it struck. Now, every region of the world is experiencing mass hunger, including countries that were thought to be relatively secure such as in Europe and the United States. Already by 2019, the number of severely undernourished people was close to 750 million, or almost one in ten people on the planet, the majority living in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. If one considers the number of “moderately” undernourished people as well in this figure, the total number of hungry in the world last year approached 2 billion people. Even without taking the pandemic into account, if previous world hunger trends continued, by 2030 the number of severely hungry, those who have run out of food, and have gone a day (or days) without eating, would have risen to 840 million people. If the current forecasts are supplemented with the impact of COVID-19, an additional 83 to 132 million people will go hungry in 2020 depending on the economic situation. Should there be an economic upturn in 2021, the number of hungry would go down somewhat, but would be still above what was originally predicted without the virus. Mariana Chilton, director of the Center for Hunger-Free Communities at Drexel University, told Bloomberg, “We’ll see the scars of this crisis for generations. In 2120, we’ll still be talking about this crisis.” Early United Nations forecasts predicted that around one in ten people on earth will not have enough to eat this year. The charity Oxfam International estimated that by the end of 2020, some 12,000 people will die every day from hunger linked to COVID-19. This figure is based on a more than 80 percent increase in those experiencing crisis-level hunger. So far, more than 860,000 people worldwide have died directly from the novel coronavirus.
World Food Prices Rise For Third Consecutive Month In August - Food price inflation is rising this summer, according to a new report via the United Nations food agency. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations said world food prices rose for the third consecutive month in August, led by increases in coarse grains, vegetable oils, and sugar. FAO's food price index, which tracks food prices monthly, averaged 96.1 in August versus 94.3 in July. The index dropped from January through April due to the virus-related recession, bottoming in May and reversing through summer. Here's a long-term view of FAO's food price index. As grains, vegetable oils and sugar prices are on the rise, the good news for consumers is that dairy and meat prices were unchanged. Readers may recall beef prices exploded in the US during the pandemic as meat plant closures led to supply chain chaos. Here's a breakdown of FAO's report: As grains, vegetable oils, and sugar prices are on the rise, the good news for consumers is that dairy and meat prices slumped were unchanged. Here's a breakdown of FAO's report: The FAO Cereal Price Index rose by 1.9 percent from July, averaging 7.0 percent above its value in August 2019, with coarse grains leading the rise. Sorghum prices rose 8.6 percen t - and stood at 33.4 percent above their year-ago level, mostly on the back of strong import demand by China. Maize prices rose 2.2 percent amid concerns that recent crop damages in Iowa would impact supply. International rice prices also rose, underpinned by seasonally tight availabilities and increasing African demand.The FAO Sugar Price Index rose by 6.7 percent from the previous month, reflecting reduced production prospects due to unfavorable weather conditions in the European Union and Thailand, the world's second-largest sugar exporter, as well as strong import demand by China.The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 5.9 percent, led by firmer values for palm oil especially, but also soy, sunflower, and rapeseed oils. The moves mainly reflect prospective production slowdowns in leading palm oil-producing countries amid firm global import demand.The FAO Dairy Price Index was virtually unchanged from July, with cheese and whole milk powder quotations declining amid expectations of ample seasonal export availabilities in Oceania, while butter prices rose due to tightening export availabilities in Europe in the wake of the August heatwave reducing milk output. The FAO Meat Price Index was also almost unchanged since July - although down 8.9 percent from August 2019 - as the effect of lower import demand for bovine, poultry, and ovine meats was offset by surging import demand for pigmeat from China. -FAO
EU refuses to accept hundreds of refugees rescued in the Mediterranean - More than 400 refugees are waiting in the central Mediterranean off Sicily for assignment to a safe haven. The weakened and partly injured refugees were saved from drowning last week by the private sea rescue ships Louise Michel and Seawatch 4. The Louise Michel, which had taken in more than 200 of the shipwrecked refugees, was so overcrowded that it was unable to maneuver on the waves for more than a day. Calls for help to the Maltese and Italian authorities remained unanswered. In addition, 27 migrants, including children and a pregnant woman, have been waiting on the Danish tanker Maersk Etienne for almost four weeks without being able to go ashore. Due to the discontinuation of all state sea rescue missions in the central Mediterranean, accidents involving refugee boats, often with fatal results, have increased sharply in recent weeks. Due to the illegal detention of private sea rescue vessels such as the Ocean Viking, the Alan Kurdi and the Sea Watch 3, no civilian sea rescue vessels patrolled the central Mediterranean for weeks.Last Thursday the Louise Michel had to take in 89 refugees. The next day, the ship responded to an emergency call from the reconnaissance aircraft Moonbird, which is operated by refugee aid workers. The Moonbird had discovered a rubber dinghy that was no longer moving and was full of water. “We were shocked when we saw the rubber boat—it was incredibly overcrowded and people onboard were trying to shuffle water out of the boat with their bare hands. We knew this was a grave emergency situation and decided to send out a mayday relay to all authorities and actors in the vicinity. Responsible European authorities failed to react to our distress call and only the Louise Michel responded to this serious distress case,” explained Neeske Beckmann from the Moonbird. While the European authorities did not fulfill their duty of sea rescue and ignored all distress calls, the Louise Michel rescued 130 refugees from acute distress at sea on Friday morning. One refugee could only be recovered dead from the dinghy, three others had drowned before. Many of the rescued have severe burns from the mixture of gasoline and salt water in the boat, explained Lea Reisner, who was responsible for the operation of the Louise Michel. Since the Louise Michel could not accommodate 219 refugees on board, the crew attached a life raft to the hull, but this rendered the ship unmaneuverable and it needed help itself. For hours the emergency call of the Louise Michel was ignored by the rescue control centers in Italy, Malta and Bremen. It was not until Saturday that an Italian coast guard ship came to the aid of the helplessly drifting Louise Michel near the Italian island of Lampedusa and took over 49 refugees who were in urgent need of medical assistance. Later, the Seawatch 4 took another 150 refugees and is now waiting with 350 refugees on board to reach a safe haven.
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