week ending Dec 26

Research Arm of Congress Confirms that Mnuchin Never Released Bulk of CARES Act Money Earmarked for Fed’s Emergency Loans -By Pam Martens - On November 27, Wall Street On Parade reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin had failed to turn over to the Federal Reserve 75 percent of the $454 billion that Congress had earmarked in the CARES Act for the Fed’s emergency lending programs.  Now the Congressional Research Service (CRS), a century old nonpartisan agency that provides legal analysis to Congress, has confirmed what Wall Street On Parade reported more than three weeks ago. In a December 17 letter to the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, the CRS wrote the following: “Section 4003(b)(4) of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act authorizes the Treasury Secretary to invest up to $454 billion in emergency-lending programs established by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). To date, the Treasury Secretary has committed $195 billion to such programs, and appears to have transferred $114 billion of that amount as of December 9, 2020.”   “Committing” money and actually turning the funds over to the Fed are very different things. For example, the Term Sheet for the Municipal Liquidity Facility indicates that the Treasury had committed $35 billion to that emergency lending facility. But the Fed’s H.4.1 that was released on December 17 shows that the Fed had only received half of that amount, $17.5 billion. The same thing occurred with the Fed’s Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities. The term sheet indicated that the Treasury would be providing a total of $75 billion combined to the two facilities. But the Fed’s H.4.1 has indicated for months that all it received from Treasury was exactly half that amount for the two facilities, $37.5 billion. (See footnote 14 to Table 1 of the H.4.1.)  Mnuchin was able to delude the public with the idea that the Fed has just been sitting on over $400 billion of Treasury’s money, so it was time for Mnuchin to claw it back and kill the programs, because that information was inaccurately reported by mainstream media. On November 24 Saleha Mohsin of Bloomberg News reported this: “The money in question includes $429 billion that Mnuchin is clawing back from the Fed — which backed some of the central bank’s emergency lending facilities — and $26 billion that Treasury received for direct loans to companies. Both initiatives were created under the Cares Act that was passed in March as the coronavirus pandemic inflicted economic pain on the U.S.”  Where did Mohsin get the idea that Mnuchin had turned over $429 billion of the $454 billion earmarked under the CARES Act to the Fed? According to Mohsin’s Tweet of December 1, Mnuchin made a phone call to her. Bloomberg News was not the only news outlet to incorrectly report how much money Mnuchin had actually turned over to the Fed. As recently as last Friday, December 18,Rachel Siegel of the Washington Post was reporting that Mnuchin “requested that the Fed return hundreds of billions of dollars that went unspent.”  The misinformation campaign about the Fed twiddling its thumbs as its haul of $429 billion from the Treasury sat dormant in the Fed’s accounts has kept mainstream media from asking the critical question: exactly what was Mnuchin doing with the hundreds of billions of dollars he did not turn over to the Fed?  The December 17 letter from the Congressional Research Service was requested by the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis to challenge Mnuchin on his interpretation that he was legally required to terminate certain of the Fed’s emergency lending programs that were backstopped with CARES Act money by December 31, 2020. Numerous legal authorities had stated publicly that Mnuchin was misreading the legislation and there was no such requirement. Democrats charged that Mnuchin simply wanted to kneecap the economic performance of the incoming Biden administration.

 PCE Price Index: November Headline & Core - The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays for November was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was unchanged month-over-month (MoM) and is up 1.13% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE is below the Fed's 2% target rate.  The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017 and 2019. The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. Most recently, the Fed reviewed their monetary policy strategy and longer-term goals and released a statement, mentioning its federal mandate to promote "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". They also confirmed their commitment to using the two percent benchmark as a lower limit: "The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. In order to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time." Read the August 2020 statement here.  The index data is shown to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted.  For a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades.

Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Slower, but Still Slightly Above-Average Growth in November" - Note: This is a composite index of other data.  From the Chicago Fed: Index Suggests Slower, but Still Slightly Above-Average Growth in November: Led by slower growth in employment- and production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.27 in November from +1.01 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in November, but all four categories decreased from October. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.56 in November from +0.85 in October. This graph from the Chicago Fed shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index by category. According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. ... A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Q3 GDP Growth Revised up slightly to 33.4% Annual Rate --From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2020: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.4 percent in the third quarter of 2020, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 33.1 percent. The upward revision primarily reflected larger increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investmentHere is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised up to 41.0% from 40.6%. Residential investment was revised up from 62.3% to 63.0%. This was at the consensus forecast.

Q3 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at 33.4%, Record High - The Third Estimate for Q3 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 33.4% (33.44% to two decimal places), a record increase from -31.4% (-31.38% to two decimal places) for the Q2 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 33.1%.  Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.4 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by th   Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent. The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 33.1 percent. The upward revision primarily reflected larger increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment (see "Updates to GDP" on page 3).  The increase in third quarter GDP reflected continued efforts to reopen businesses and resume activities that were postponed or restricted due to COVID-19. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the Technical Note. [Full Release]  Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.17% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.02%.

Q3 Real GDP Per Capita: 32.7% Versus the 33.4% Headline Real GDP - The Third Estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 33.1% (33.10% to two decimals), up from -31.4% (-31.40% to two decimals) in Q2. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 32.68% to two decimal points.  Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we've chained in today's dollar for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on quarterly aggregates of mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence our 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data is available in the FRED series POPTHM. The logarithmic vertical axis ensures that the highlighted contractions have the same relative scale.  The chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the trend since the Great Recession has a visibly lower slope than the long-term trend. In fact, the current GDP per-capita is 11.5% below the pre-recession trend (2008). The real per-capita series gives us a better understanding of the depth and duration of GDP contractions. As we can see, since our 1960 starting point, the recession that began in December 2007 is associated with a deeper trough than previous contractions, which perhaps justifies its nickname as the Great Recession. The standard measure of GDP in the US is expressed as the compounded annual rate of change from one quarter to the next. The current real GDP is 33.1%. But with a per-capita adjustment, the data series is lower at 32.7%. The 10-year moving average illustrates that US economic growth has slowed dramatically since the last recession and has dropped significantly during the COVID recession.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.  This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average. This data is as of December 20th.   The seven day average is down 63.8% from last year (36.2 of last year).  (Dashed line)  There had been a slow increase from the bottom, but is now moving more sideways - with ups and downs due to the holidays.  The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.   This data is updated through December 19, 2020.  This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."   Note that dining is generally lower in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York - but declining in the southern states. Note that California dining is off sharply with the orders to close.  This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 17th.  Movie ticket sales have picked up slightly over the last couple of months, but were down last week to $8 million (compared to usually as much as $400 million per week at this time of year).  This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through December 12th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 37.4% year-over-year. Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate, we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020: This suggests no improvement over the last few months.  This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of December 11th, gasoline supplied was off about 15.3% YoY (about 84.7% of last year). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through December 19th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 45% of the January level. It is at 33% in Chicago, and 52% in Houston - and mostly trending down over the last few months. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage.  This data is through Friday, December 18th. "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".

Business Cycle Indicators as of December 23 - Menzie Chinn -  Key indicators tracked by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) show mixed behavior; income (ex-transfers) declines. So too does consumption. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for employment as of 12/23 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (12/1 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations. The Bloomberg consensus for nonfarm payroll employment for December is for an increase of only 100,000. Spending declines — both retail and food services sales as well as consumption. Figure 2: Personal consumption expenditure, in Ch.2012$ (blue), retail and food sales in 1982-84$ (brown), both s.a., in logs 2020M02=0. Source: BEA, FRED, and author’s calculations. University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index declined as well. Figure 3: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Clearly this is a precarious point in the economy’s recovery. Perfect time to screw up a fiscal recovery package…

Red flag: Paul Krugman is optimistic about the economy -  Paul Krugman, the left-wing economist who writes for the New York Times, is excited about the coming “Biden Boom” that will follow, he explains, the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine. The Biden Boom, he probably forgot to note, that depends on the Trump vaccine.Given Krugman’s record, his upbeat forecast is alarming. As many remember, he predicted in 2016 that the election of Donald Trump would usher in a global recession, “with no end in sight.” Oops.Krugman’s pessimism about the Trump economy, colored by his hatred of the president, endured. In April 2019, the NYU professor opined that the bond markets were signaling an imminent recession. Indeed, throughout 2019, as David Harsanyi wrote in a National Review column titled “Paul Krugman: Always Wrong, Never in Doubt,” the professor published: “Why was Trumponomics a Flop?” “From Trump Boom to Trump Gloom” and in October, “The Day the Trump Boom Died,” even as we went on to record record-low unemployment for every worker group and 56 percent of Americans declared themselves better off than they were four years earlier.Krugman was also dead wrong about the severity of the Great Recession. After the stock market tumbled nearly 3 percent on July 26, 2007, Krugman wrote a calming piece, explaining that trading in the government bond market showed “that investors still consider a recession, which would cause the Fed to cut interest rates, fairly unlikely” — a view that Krugman apparently shared.Further, Krugman opined the next day that “stocks don’t look overvalued the way they did in 2000.” Shortly thereafter the stock market began one of its worst slides in history, collapsing 51 percent from the close on the day Krugman wrote that cheery note. Nobody’s perfect, but Krugman’s record is pretty poor.Which is why his current optimism should make us nervous. On the surface, the U.S. does appear poised to profit from the roll-out of a vaccine that will put COVID-19 behind us, allowing the country to get back to work. Rising employment, especially in those industries most harmed by the coronavirus, like travel and entertainment, means higher incomes and spending.Also, the country’s savings rate has soared during the past six months as people stayed home; most economists think, like Krugman, that there is considerable pent-up demand.So, on the surface, the outlook is pretty rosy, which is why the stock market has been hitting new highs. What could go wrong?

Congress races to clinch coronavirus deal as shutdown looms - Congressional leaders are racing to finalize and pass a $900 billion coronavirus relief deal ahead of a midnight deadline to prevent a government shutdown. Leadership says it is on the precipice of a sweeping deal that would tie the long-sought relief to a $1.4 trillion bill to fund the government until Oct. 1. If lawmakers can't pass the forthcoming agreement by the end of Sunday, something rank-and-file senators are casting doubt on, they'll need to use a stopgap bill to keep the government open. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), entering the Capitol for the day, told reporters that they were "really, really close." "We are winnowing down the remaining differences. I think I can speak for all sides when I say I expect and hope to have a final agreement nailed down in a matter of hours," McConnell said from the floor during the rare Sunday session. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) echoed that, saying, "We're very close." Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said that "barring a major mishap" both the House and Senate could vote "as early as tonight." "As we speak, the legislative text is being finalized. The time has come to move forward and reach a conclusion," he added from the Senate floor. The progress toward a deal comes after a middle-of-the-night breakthrough on the last big sticking point: emergency lending facilities under the Federal Reserve. The deal would close four Federal Reserve credit lending facilities created by the CARES Act and will prevent the Fed from standing up replica facilities in the future without congressional approval. The Fed will retain more flexibility over restarting the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which will be closed but can be restarted in the future. Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) told reporters during a conference call on Sunday afternoon that lawmakers were still working to finalize the Federal Reserve language but that he intended to support the overall package. “Despite the significant reservations I have about some particular features, I think the good outweighs the bad, and it is my intention at this point to vote for it,” he said. Leadership aides acknowledged that the agreement with Toomey on the language moved Congress significantly closer, but there are smaller issues to iron out, and leadership needs to finalize and finish drafting the year-end agreement. "There are a few issues outstanding, but I'm quite hopeful that we're closing in on an outcome," Schumer said. Lawmakers are also pushing for language in the deal for a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) tax "fix" over concerns that businesses that received PPP loans will have to pay a larger-than-expected tax bill next year. "Sounds to me like things aren't completely tied up," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said on Sunday.

House adopts 1-day stopgap bill to prevent government shutdown --The House moved swiftly Sunday night to pass a one-day extension of government funding — a last-minute cushion to prevent a government shutdown while the chambers slog through the final steps of passing a much larger coronavirus relief package on Monday. The 24-hour buffer was needed after negotiations on the broader spending bill stalled Sunday over a handful of stubborn disagreements, preventing the drafting and release of the final package. The bill later quickly passed the Senate and President Trump signed the stopgap bill just before the midnight shutdown deadline. With the clock ticking toward midnight — and a government shutdown — House Democratic leaders announced their one-day continuing resolution, or CR, to buy Congress more time to move the legislation through both chambers and move it to President Trump's desk this week. Their announcement arrived just as leaders in both chambers announced that an agreement on a broader package had also been cemented. "I’m pleased we have reached an agreement on COVID-19 relief and an omnibus, which I expect we’ll pass tomorrow and send to the Senate," House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) tweeted. "In order to provide time to prepare the bill for consideration, the House will meet at 6:30 p.m. to consider a one-day continuing resolution." The House Rules Committee is expected to meet Monday morning to adopt the guidelines governing the floor debate on the package, which combines roughly $900 billion in emergency coronavirus relief with more than $1 trillion to fund the government through next September. The rules package will also include a multiday CR — somewhere in the neighborhood of seven days, though the number is not final — to allow for the logistical complications of adopting such an enormous bill, particularly during the holidays. The House is expected to send the legislation to the Senate on Monday afternoon, and leaders in both parties are hoping to move it quickly to Trump's desk. It remains unclear, however, if there will be any objection to that fast-track strategy, which could delay the process further.

Congress passes one-day stopgap bill ahead of shutdown deadline - The Senate passed a one-day stopgap bill on Sunday night hours after congressional leaders announced they had reached an agreement on a sweeping deal to fund the government and provide long-stalled coronavirus relief. The one-day bill passed the House earlier in the evening. The White House announced just before the midnight deadline that President Trump signed the stopgap measure, funding the government for the next 24 hours. It's the fourth continuing resolution (CR) Congress has needed this year after initially using a stopgap to fund the government from Oct. 1 to Dec. 11. They then used a second CR to extend it until Dec. 18 and a third to extend it further until the end of Sunday. The need for a one-day CR comes as the House is expected to vote on the roughly $2.3 trillion deal, which includes $900 billion for coronavirus relief and $1.4 trillion to fund the government, on Monday. A notice from House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) initially had the deal teed up for a vote potentially late into Sunday evening but just before 6 p.m., House Democrats announced the one-day CR would be the only vote of the day. The deal includes $284 billion for another round of small business aid through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a $300-per-week unemployment benefit for 11 weeks, a pared down $600 second round of stimulus checks, and more money for things like schools, coronavirus testing and vaccine distribution. After the agreement passes the House on Monday, it will then go to the Senate where leadership has signaled that they are eager to move it quickly. But under Senate rules any one lawmaker could slow down the Senate's passage, including dragging it out for days. No senator has said they will do so as members are eager to get out of town days before the Christmas holidays. Congress could also pass a second longer seven-day CR in order to give leadership time to get the mammoth COVID-spending bill to Trump's desk and give him time to sign it amid the holiday week. The House is expected to tuck the longer CR into its package that governs the debate of the omnibus-coronavirus package. Once the House passes the rules for its debate, the longer, days-long CR will automatically go to the Senate for passage. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) indicated earlier that the Senate would pass the second, likely seven-day CR in order to give time for the agreement to be signed into law. “Well whatever they send over I assume we will pick it up and transact it,” Thune said about the House plan.

Trump signs bill extending government funding for 24 hours - President Trump signed a continuing resolution on Sunday night that will fund the government for the next 24 hours, preventing a shutdown just before midnight and giving Congress extra time to pass a coronavirus relief measure and an accompanying $1.4 trillion government funding bill. The White House announced just before midnight that Trump signed the bill shortly after the House and Senate each passed the measure Sunday evening. Congress is expected to take up the stimulus package and government funding bill on Monday. The government would have shut down at midnight without the one-day extension of funding. The continuing resolution was needed after stimulus talks hit an impasse over the weekend. It is the second such measure Trump has signed in the last two days, after a two-day short-term bill was passed and signed into law on Friday evening. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced Sunday evening that congressional negotiators had finalized a deal that would link a $1.4 trillion government funding bill to roughly $900 billion in further coronavirus relief, a significant bipartisan breakthrough after months of on and off talks. A late disagreement over the Federal Reserve’s lending powers threatened the broader deal over the weekend but was resolved close to midnight Saturday by a bipartisan group, paving the way for an agreement. Trump has hardly been involved in stimulus talks, instead keeping his attention on disputing the election results that saw him be defeated by President-elect Joe Biden.  Still, Trump has pushed for the inclusion of direct payments to Americans. He tweeted late Saturday that Congress needed to reach a stimulus deal, pressuring lawmakers to give “more money in direct payments.” The Washington Post reported last week that Trump wanted to call for direct payments of at least $1,200 and up to $2,000, but that aides intervened to prevent him from making the demand. The deal announced Sunday includes a round of $600 direct payments to certain Americans. Trump told reporters earlier this month he would support a coronavirus relief package if Congress were to reach a deal and aides indicated Sunday that he would support it.

Congress to approve $1.375 billion for border wall in 2021 Congress will approve $1.375 billion for a wall along the southern border as part of the $1.4 trillion omnibus spending bill for the next fiscal year, according to GOP sources. Congress is expected to pass the measure on Monday along with a $900 billion COVID-19 relief bill. The White House signaled Sunday evening that President Trump would sign it. Trump had previously given conflicting signals on whether he'd support the massive package, which congressional leaders in both parties backed on Sunday. The money for the border wall, which matches the funding included last year for Trump's signature issue, could represent another reason for Trump to sign the bill. Funding for the wall has been a regular sticking point in annual spending bills, and led to the nation's longest government shutdown in December 2018. Budget law requires the government to spend appropriated funds, but it is unclear whether President-elect Joe Biden will seek a way to circumvent the law or whether Congress would take action to enforce the law. The funding for the wall in this measure would continue after Trump leaves office. Trump had requested $2 billion for the wall in 2021, but Democrats put no funding for the project in their appropriations bills, going so far as to claw back funds from previous years and block transfers from other accounts using emergency powers in legislation that passed in the House. The $1.375 billion figure is the same that Democrats and Republicans agreed upon in a compromise spending bill last year. While in previous years Trump was vocal about insisting that the wall be funded, the issue took a back burner in this year's negotiations as Congress focused on the COVID-19 legislation.

Congress clinches sweeping deal on coronavirus relief, government funding -Congressional leaders on Sunday reached a mammoth deal to fund the government and provide long-sought coronavirus relief as lawmakers race to wrap up their work for the year. The deal will tie a $1.4 trillion bill to fund the government until Oct. 1 to roughly $900 billion in coronavirus aid. In order to give Congress time to process and pass the agreement, the House and Senate passed a one-day stopgap bill on Sunday. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced the deal from the Senate floor on early Sunday evening. "For the information of all senators and more importantly for the American people, we can finally report what our nation has needed to hear for a very long time: More help is on the way," McConnell said. "Moments ago, in consultation with our committees, the four leaders of the Senate and the House finalized an agreement. It will be another major rescue package for the American people," McConnell added. Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) put out a joint statement confirming the deal. “Today, we have reached agreement with Republicans and the White House on an emergency coronavirus relief and omnibus package that delivers urgently needed funds to save the lives and livelihoods of the American people as the virus accelerates,” they said. The coronavirus deal, hashed out by the top four congressional leaders, doesn’t include more money directly for state and local governments or protections against coronavirus-related lawsuits — a top priority for Democrats and McConnell, respectively. It does include another round of small-business aid through the Paycheck Protection Program, a $300-per-week unemployment benefit for 11 weeks, a pared-down $600 second round of stimulus checks, and more money for things such as schools, coronavirus testing and vaccine distribution. McConnell, during his floor speech, noted that text was still being finalized. The White House quickly indicated that Trump will sign the deal. “President Trump has pushed hard for months to send Americans badly needed financial relief. We look forward to Congress sending a bill to his desk imminently for signature," said Ben Williamson, a White House spokesman. The agreement came together after Schumer and Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) struck a deal late Saturday night on the final big hold: federal emergency lending facilities. Congress hasn't passed coronavirus relief since April, even as cases have surged, hospitals are warning they could be overwhelmed, and cities and states are reinstating lockdown measures to try to curb the spread heading into the holidays. Even as they announced a deal, McConnell and Schumer took shots at each other for who was to blame for the months-long delay in coronavirus relief. “The agreement on this package can be summed up by the expression ‘better late than never,’ although I know many of my Republican colleagues wished it was never,” Schumer said.

Toomey’s compromise on Fed authority cleared way for stimulus deal — Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., signaled that he would support a compromise coronavirus stimulus package after congressional leaders agreed to modify restrictions on the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending powers. Lawmakers were planning to hold a vote as early as Monday on the roughly $900 billion pandemic relief bill. The legislation includes more than $280 billion for small-business lending efforts through the Paycheck Protection Program and provides another one-year extension — to 2022 — for banks to comply with the Current Expected Credit Losses accounting standard. The relief bill had hit a potential snag over a GOP proposal backed by Toomey aiming to prevent the Fed from reviving certain credit facilities — launched through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act — that the central bank previously agreed to shut down at year-end. But Democrats claimed the Republican plan would unnecessarily restrain the Fed's emergency powers under 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. Toomey agreed to modify the amendment to explicitly state that the Fed cannot recreate facilities that are identical to the CARES Act programs. “I am very pleased with the conclusions that we have come to on how we have handled the 13(3) CARES facilities,” Toomey, who will chair the Senate Banking Committee in 2021 if Republicans maintain their majority, said in a call with reporters on Sunday. “I think the good outweighs the bad and it is my intention to vote for it.” Toomey's original amendment announced last week would have blocked the Fed from propping up "similar" facilities, but Democrats argued that that version was too overaching. “There was a complaint from the Democrats that my initial language was too broad and could be interpreted as too sweeping," Toomey said. "So we ended up narrowing the language versus what we had originally put on the table." The CARES Act facilities affected by the legislation include the Main Street Lending Program, through which the Fed can buy pieces of bank loans issued to midsize businesses hampered by the pandemic. They also include the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility, Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility and Municipal Liquidity Facility. Toomey said the agreement still achieves his original goals, including to ensure that unused CARES Act funds could be diverted away from the Fed for future use. “Goal No. 1 was to sweep the funds, the unused funds, out of the accounts, and repurpose that money for other purposes,” Toomey said. “Goal No. 2 was to shut down the three facilities that needed to be shut down. No. 3 was to forbid the reopening of those facilities, make it clear that the shutdown was permanent and cannot be reversed without coming to Congress. And No. 4 would be to ban a clone.” Toomey also rejected Democrats' criticism that his intention was to stifle the incoming Biden administration's ability to respond to an economic crisis. He said his goal was to keep the Fed from being politicized and succumbing to Democratic calls to lend to municipalities and other favored groups. “The Fed would be in a position of having to decide whether or not it is going to comply with the pressure that it would be under to start doing an activity they know they shouldn’t be doing, and then there would be competing pressure to do all kinds of other things for preferred constituencies,” Toomey said. 

What is in the $900 billion coronavirus relief bill?  --Lawmakers late on Sunday released a long-awaited $900 billion coronavirus relief bill that is expected to be passed by Congress on Monday and signed into law by President Trump. The relief package will be combined with a $1.4 trillion measure to fund federal agencies through the end of September and a package extending expiring tax provisions. Both Democrats and Republicans touted various aspects of the relief package, though Democrats wanted a significantly larger bill. One of the key elements of the bill is a second round of direct payments to Americans. The payments will be up to $600 per adult and per child. The amount per adult is half the $1,200 payments that were provided under the CARES Act enacted in March, but the amount per child is slightly larger than the $500 allowed under that law. The bill will allow U.S. citizens who are in households that also include non-citizens to receive the payments. With the first round of payments, U.S. citizens married to people who do not have work-eligible Social Security numbers generally could not receive a payment if the couple filed a joint return. A second round of direct payments had not been included in a proposal from a bipartisan group of moderates who had served as a starting point for discussions. But progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), GOP Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and the White House all pushed for the inclusion of more relief checks. Advocates for more checks are happy to see another direct payment included, but wished it was a higher amount. Two expiring CARES Act programs, Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which made benefits available to the self-employed and gig economy workers, and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, which provided additional weeks of benefits, were extended for 11 weeks, averting a fiscal crisis for millions of Americans. That timeline will set another key deadline to stop the programs from expiring in early March. In addition, Congress will add $300 to all weekly unemployment benefits, half the amount that supplemented benefits from April through July. Workers who rely on multiple jobs and have lost income will also be eligible for a weekly $100 boost as well. The popular Paycheck Protection Program, which provided distressed small businesses with forgivable loans to keep them afloat and leave employees on the books, was re-upped with $284 billion in funds. Businesses that already received a PPP loan will be eligible to get a second one under the new terms. Some of the PPP funds will be set aside for the smallest businesses and community-based lenders. The deal provides $9 billion in emergency Treasury capital investments for Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) and Minority Depository Institutions (MDIs), financial institutions that largely cater to minorities, as well as an additional $3 billion for CDFIs through a Treasury fund. It also provides $20 billion in Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) grants for smaller businesses. Additionally, it includes $15 billion in grants dedicated to live venues.

What's in the U.S. COVID-19 bill? Unemployment, $600 checks, 'three martini lunch' deduction (Reuters) - U.S. congressional leaders said on Sunday they had reached agreement on a $900 billion package to provide the first new aid in months to an economy hammered by the novel coronavirus pandemic, with votes likely on Monday. Here's what is in the package, according to a summary released by House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, and interviews with several congressional aides who provided additional details: 

• Checks in the mail: The bill includes $166 billion in new direct payments of up to $600 per adult and child, for individuals making up to $75,000 a year and $1,200 for couples making up to $150,000 a year. The bill expands direct payments to mixed-status households.
• More unemployment benefits: An additional $300 per week for some unemployment recipients, with expanded coverage to the self employed, "gig" workers and others in nontraditional situations.
• A U.S. Postal Service grant: Congress agrees to convert a $10 billion loan approved in March into direct funding for USPS without requiring repayment.
• Payroll loans: $284 billion for government payroll loans, including expanded eligibility for nonprofits and newspaper and TV and radio broadcasters, $15 billion for live venues, independent movie theaters, and cultural institutions and $20 billion for targeted disaster grants
• Back-to-school funding: $82 billion for colleges and schools, including for heating-and-cooling system upgrades to mitigate virus transmission and reopen classrooms, and $10 billion for childcare assistance. Includes $54.3 billion for K-12 schools and $22.7 billion for higher education
• Childcare: $10 billion to provide childcare assistance to families and to help childcare providers cover costs related to pandemic safety.
• Business meal write-offs. A new tax break for business meal expenses, nicknamed the "three martini" deduction.
• Ending surprise medical billing: Insured patients only need to pay in-network costs when an emergency or other issue forces them to use a medical provider who isn't covered by their network.
• Transport industry help: $45 billion for transportation aid, including $15 billion to U.S. passenger airlines for payroll assistance, $14 billion for transit systems, $10 billion for state highway funding, $2 billion for airports, $1 billion for airline contractors and $1 billion for passenger railroad Amtrak.
• Rent and eviction aid: $25 billion for rent and utility payment assistance for people struggling to stay in their homes, and an extension of the eviction moratorium until Jan. 31. States will receive a minimum of $200 million in assistance.
• Vaccine distribution aid: $30 billion to support procurement and distribution of the vaccine, "ensuring it's free and rapidly distributed to everyone," as Schumer said.
• More to fight hunger: $13 billion for food assistance, including additional funding for food banks and senior nutrition programs, college student access to the federal government's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
• Farm aid: Another $13 billion for direct payments, purchases and loans to farmers and ranchers.
• Expanded Pell Grants: New grants for college tuition, which would reach 500,000 new recipients.
• Internet access: $7 billion to give more Americans broadband internet access, including $1.9 billion to replace telecom network equipment that poses national security risks
• Minority-owned businesses: $12 billion for minority owned and very small businesses that struggled to access earlier Payroll Protection Program financing.

Pressley: Direct payments are 'survival checks,' not stimulus -Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) called a new expected round of direct payments a matter of survival, saying average Americans need further relief for basic necessities. “We have to get urgent relief to our families. Again, at this point, these are not stimulus checks. They’re stimulating nothing. These are survival checks,” Pressley told CNN’s Abby Phillip on Sunday. “This is about basic needs, about families needing to remain safely housed, about purchasing diapers and formula, inhalers, insulin. And the truth of the matter is $600 will not even cover a month’s rent.” Asked whether a potential Senate deal could meet those needs, Pressley responded: “I have not seen any text as of yet. So I will need to go through that and see if it's responsive to what my mayors have told me they need, what our community health centers have told me they need, what our families say they need, what our small businesses, our restaurants say that they need. And so, you know, I'm waiting for the text so I can do that.” Pressley has used the term “survival checks” for direct payments before and blasted reports that the Senate package will reduce a second round of payments to $600 per recipient, noting that in most of the country such a payment would not cover a month’s rent. "Our families deserve real survival checks. Six hundred dollars is hardly sufficient. It is an insult. We must act to save lives now," Pressley said on the House floor last week.

 Bipartisan US “relief” bill stiffs workers and unemployed, gives billions more to business - Late Sunday night, congressional leaders from both parties signaled their acceptance of a roughly $900 billion coronavirus relief bill that includes generous handouts to large companies while leaving jobless workers and their families with crumbs. The bill is expected to pass both the House and Senate by Monday afternoon and be attached to a $1.4 trillion omnibus spending bill. President Donald Trump has signaled his intention to sign the bill into law. The package, which Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called a “strong shot in the arm,” does nowhere near enough to make whole the over 10 million people who have lost their jobs since March and the millions whose hours or wages have been reduced. The bill does not provide health insurance for the estimated 15 million who have lost it during the pandemic. It will not house the over 162,000 who have been evicted during the pandemic, nor does it provide enough money to cover the nearly $6,000 in average back rent owed by some 12 million people, according to Moody’s analytics. It’s been nearly nine months since congress passed the CARES Act, a windfall for the financial oligarchy that provided about $6 trillion in low-interest loans and cash subsidies to major banks and corporations, while providing limited relief for the general population in the form of a $1,200 stimulus check for those earning under $75,000, limited protection against eviction, and a $600 weekly federal unemployment benefit. The new bill slashes the federal supplemental jobless benefit to only $300 a week and cuts the duration of the program to a mere 11 weeks. It reduces the one-time stimulus check to $600 from the CARES Act’s $1,200. A temporary holdup in the bill’s passage was ironed out over the weekend after a deal was struck between Republican Senator Pat Toomey and the Democrats over several Federal Reserve programs created in the CARES Act that were set to expire at the end of the year. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had already ended the programs on his own, but the language Toomey included in the package would have required congressional approval to restart the programs in case another crisis for the financial oligarchy arose that required additional billions in immediate funds. The Democrats demanded the removal of the proposed check on the supposed “independence of the Fed,” a fiction used to conceal the fact that the US central bank is an instrument of the corporate-financial oligarchy and does its bidding. The Democrats had little problem abandoning federal aid to cash-starved states and cities, money for food programs under conditions of mass hunger, serious money for COVID-19 testing, tracing and PPE, and other desperately needed social funding they had included in the so-called Heroes Act passed by the House in May. But on the issue of unlimited Fed money to prop up the financial markets, they dug in their heels and refused to sign onto the deal until Toomey backed down.

 'It's hostage-taking.' AOC lashed out after lawmakers got only hours to read and pass the huge 5,593-page bill to secure COVID-19 relief Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York described the voting process on the new legislation that contained the COVID-19 relief funding as "hostage-taking" after lawmakers were given only a few hours to read 5,593 pages of text.Congress on Monday night passed a $1.4 trillion bill that included $908 billion in coronavirus relief, agreed after months of tense negotiation.The final text of the legislation was released only Monday afternoon. The House vote took place at 9:08 p.m., while senators took until almost midnight to pass it.Both chambers overwhelmingly passed the bill, and, despite her objections, Ocasio-Cortez also voted in favor for the portion approving COVID-19 relief. The New York representative tweeted a Hollywood Reporter articlethat said provisions in the bill would make illegal video streaming into a felony."This is why Congress needs time to actually read this package before voting on it," she wrote."Members of Congress have not read this bill. It's over 5000 pages, arrived at 2pm today, and we are told to expect a vote on it in 2 hours. This isn't governance. It's hostage-taking."Ocasio-Cortez argued that time for public scrutiny — not just by lawmakers — was just as important."Members are reeling right now bc they don't have time to consult w/ their communities," she wrote.Broad summaries of the top-line items in the COVID-19 relief bill had been widely shared, including matters that have been part of public debate for weeks — such as sending $600 one-off payments to most Americans and scaling up unemployment insurance.But the full bill contained measures that had not previously been widely shared. These included aid for several countries and provisions for race-horse owners, sexual-abstinence programs, and the Space Force.Lawmakers have debated COVID-19 relief measures throughout the summer and fall. But much of the progress toward the final shape of the deal has been made in the past two weeks, necessitating extending the deadline twice to prevent a government shutdown.The bill passed in the House by 359 votes to 53, including a vote in favor from Ocasio-Cortez. About two hours later, it passed the Senate with a substantial majority, and as of early Tuesday morning it was awaiting President Donald Trump's signature.

'Slap in the Face for People Suffering Across the Country': Critics Slam Watered-Down Covid Relief Deal -- In the wake of Sunday night's agreement on a roughly $900 billion Covid-19 relief package that is far smaller than economists say is necessary, progressives argued that the "slap-in-the-face" bill must be passed to help stem the suffering of working-class Americans but that much more will be needed to address the crisis that has claimed more than 300,000 lives and 20 million jobs in the United States so far."To say this relief package is a day late and a dollar short is an understatement to say the least," said People's Action director George Goehl in a statement released Sunday night.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his fellow congressional Republicans "prioritized the profits of the 1% over the well-being of everyone else since this pandemic began," Goehl said. "The result is a diluted bill that's barely a Band-Aid, but definitely a slap in the face for people suffering across the country.""When the history books are written about this pandemic," Goehl added, McConnell and the GOP "will be remembered as heartless souls who played politics with people's lives by blocking life-saving relief for months."The legislation includes $600 direct cash payments to Americans who earned $75,000 or less in 2019, though that hard-fought-for sum is meager compared to what other OECD countries have allocated to workers, including several nations that subsidized wages by 75% to 100% and didn't have gaps of more than 260 days between relief packages.In addition, the bill extends paid sick leave benefits and augments jobless benefits by $300 per week for 11 weeks, averting a catastrophic post-Christmas Day scenario in which 12 million people would lose unemployment insurance. It also provides much-needed funding—$10 billion for childcare, $13 billion for nutrition aid, $25 billion in rental assistance, and $82 billion for schools, as Common Dreams reported Sunday. Progressives defeated the corporate immunity provision McConnell has spent monthspushing for, but urgently needed fiscal aid for state and local governments was also cut from the bill.Although specific details of the agreement are still emerging, the package will reportedly leave out hazard pay for frontline workers while the Washington Postreported Sunday that Republicans extracted tax deductions for "three-martini lunch" expenses "in exchange for... tax credits for low-income families." And, according to Matt Bruenig of the People's Policy Project, the legislation excludes 13.5 million adult dependents.The bill is "not nothing, but it's obviously inadequate...during an economic meltdown that has been punctuated by mass starvation and intensifying poverty," the Daily Poster's David Sirota wrote Sunday night. "For comparison, only three years ago, Republicans passed a $1.5 trillion tax cut that enriched the wealthiest 1% of households."

5,000-Page Funding Bill Including COVID Relief Also Has Section Detailing Reincarnation of Dalai Lama - The 5,593-page government funding bill that includes the COVID-19 stimulus legislation also includes a section outlining the reincarnation and succession of the Dalai Lama.The massive legislation was released publicly Monday after months of back-and-forth negotiations between Democratic and Republican lawmakers, who announced Sunday that they had reached an agreement to provide further economic relief to Americans amid the surging coronavirus pandemic. The stimulus bill has been included with the appropriations bill that will keep the government funded moving forward. Due to the length of the legislation and the tight timeframe lawmakers are facing, most members of Congress will not likely have time to read the entire bill.The legislation includes some notable sections that are not directly related to government funding or the pandemic. Section 342 of the bill outlines a "statement of policy regarding the succession or reincarnation of the Dalai Lama." Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th Dalai Lama, currently resides in exile in India after escaping from Tibet in 1959 amid a revolt against Chinese governance. Tibet was occupied by China in 1951 and incorporated as part of the East Asian nation."Tibetan Buddhism is practiced in many countries including Bhutan, India, Mongolia, Nepal, the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation, and the United States, yet the Government of the People's Republic of China has repeatedly insisted on its role in managing the selection of Tibet's next spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, through actions such as those described in the 'Measures on the Management of the Reincarnation of Living Buddhas' in 2007," the bill explains.

Despite 'three martini' tax break, COVID-19 bill leaves struggling U.S. restaurants cold (Reuters) - The $900 billion coronavirus relief package passed by the U.S. Congress on Monday contains a high-profile tax loophole for business meals, but not the one thing most requested by independent U.S. restaurants which have been devastated by the pandemic: cash.The Republican-backed "three-martini lunch deduction" doubles an existing tax break, allowing companies to write off 100% of business dining expenses through 2022. The loophole's defenders say it supports the hard-hit restaurant industry. This is "a pro-worker, pro-restaurant, and pro-small business bill," said U.S. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina. However, it has been derided by economists, Democrats, and even the staunchly conservative Wall Street Journal op-ed page as politically tone deaf, given the millions of sick and out-of-work Americans. The tax break will cost taxpayers $6.3 billion through 2023, analysis by a congressional committee shows. It will also fail to boost the restaurant industry in a big way, at least initially. "When less than 10% of workers have returned to their offices in Midtown and Lower Manhattan, and indoor dining is closed and it's freezing outside, this deduction doesn't do much," said Andrew Rigie, director of the New York City Hospitality Alliance. The coronavirus pandemic, and related restrictions on dining out, have split the fortunes of the U.S. restaurant industry, which racked up $860 billion in sales in 2019 and employed 12.3 million before the pandemic hit.Sales are up and expansions under way at some of the biggest restaurant brands, mostly chains with drive-thru and delivery, including Starbucks Corp, McDonald's Corp, Papa John's International Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc and Domino's Pizza Inc. But small, independent restaurants and fine dining have been bludgeoned. Chef and owner Amanda Cohen said her 12-year-old eatery Dirt Candy in Lower Manhattan is barely hanging on. Revenue at Dirt Candy, known for innovative vegetarian fare like carrot sliders and an eggplant dessert flambeed at the table, has plummeted from as much as $12,000 a night before the pandemic to as little as $300 a night now. The National Restaurant Association (NRA) believes 17% of all U.S. restaurants – about 110,000 – have already closed permanently or long-term. The industry has lost over 2 million jobs since February, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor data. The coronavirus relief bill does include loans and tax breaks the restaurant industry could tap, but not the dedicated grants trade groups had spent months lobbying for, arguing that the restaurant industry deserved similar subsidies to airlines and farms.

The “three-martini lunch” tax break sums up why so many people hate capitalism –-As Americans dig into the details of the government’s new stimulus bill and debate the impact it will have on the average household, one provision has sparked utter disgust: the so-called “three-martini lunch” tax break.As reported by the Washington Post, this tweak of the tax code will allow corporations to deduct 100% of their business meals, instead of the 50% they’ve been able to claim since the 1980s.Tim Scott, a Republican senator from South Carolina, introduced the deduction, claiming it would help restaurants and restaurant workers who have been struggling since the beginning of the pandemic.While the goal is admirable, the logic of the measure—which was championed by the Trump White House—is hard to defend.  Before we even get to the economics, let’s ask why elected officials would incentivize indoor dining, the very activity that puts restaurant workers (and patrons) at risk of contracting Covid-19, when hospitals already are buckling under the stress of case spikes in several US states? Restaurant environments are so friendly to the virus—giving it access to people from various “bubbles” mixing indoors without masks—that scientists are calling them “superspreader destinations.”Part of the answer has to do with a sense of entitlement. As we saw with members of US president Donald Trump’s inner circle who refused to wear masks during a string of events before election day, many Republican officials seem to believe that public health rules don’t apply to them or their corporate friends. They have been modeling the worst behaviors since Covid-19 first became a threat—and now they’re using the tax code to encourage people to put their fellow Americans at risk.That’s standard cronyism, of course, which is something the Trump administration has brought to new levels—deadly heights, in fact—over the past four years. And it pairs perfectly with a lack of empathy.Democrats who spoke to the Washington Post on the condition of anonymity said they only agreed to this deduction in exchange for an item on their own wish list: additional tax credits for low-income families and the working poor, according to the Post. If true, the swap adds insult to injury. It’s shameful that a benefit for the lowest earners was treated like any other pawn in the horse-trading that led to this package. More generous deductions for business lunches will literally cost the government’s coffers funds that could have been used to support more Americans. And yet it’s also Republicans who continue to push a narrative that says people are responsible for their own social mobility, that where there’s a will, there’s a way, et cetera.“Republicans are nickel-and-diming benefits for jobless workers, while at the same time pushing for tax breaks for three-martini power lunches. It’s unconscionable,”

COVID-19 bill that stiffed workers full of handouts to big business - The COVID-19 relief bill passed by Congress this week provided a pittance for workers affected by the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression. But in recent days it has emerged that the bill is stuffed full of handouts to major businesses and the superrich. Included in the combined relief and spending bill are generous tax incentives for large businesses totaling over $110 billion for liquor producers, wind energy lobbyists, the National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing (NASCAR) and electric motorcycle manufacturers. The Washington Post reported that the “tax extenders” are “something of a year-end tradition” frequently added to large bills at the behest of industry lobbyists. Speaking to the Post, Howard Gleckman, a tax policy expert at the Urban Institute, characterized them as a “gravy train for members and lobbyists.” He added that these are “classic special interest tax breaks that do not benefit the overall economy in any way.” One extender, lobbied for by liquor and alcohol giants, Anheuser-Busch and Bacardi North America, re-ups tax cuts that first became law in 2017 but were set to expire this year without congressional approval. In an interview with the Post, Democratic Senator Ron Wyden (Oregon) defended the cuts as a way to “help small brewers and wineries.” The extender granted to NASCAR goes back to 2004 and will help Brian France and the rest of the France family, owners of NASCAR and worth a reported $5.7 billion, to continue claiming tax breaks on their facilities through 2025. Another extender will grant a tax credit to purchasers of electric motorcycles worth up to $2,500, or 10 percent of the cost of the vehicle. The bill also includes the so-called “three martini lunch” provision, which allows business executives to deduct their meal expenses at 100 percent, compared to the previous 50 percent, which will lead to a $5 billion reduction in tax revenue, according to the Tax Foundation. While Trump has championed this provision since April, the stimulus bill failed to include a $120 billion fund that had been lobbied by the National Restaurant Association (NRA), which reported that employment within the industry remains 2.1 million jobs below its pre-coronavirus level. To add insult to injury, Trump threatened to veto the bill Tuesday, raising the prospect that millions of desperate people will not get any assistance at all for weeks. While the bill is the largest in US history at nearly 6,000 pages, not a single line was devoted to protecting career federal employees from political retaliation and terminations. Two weeks before the election Trump issued an executive order which allowed him to reclassify federal employees and civil servants that work within government agencies, such as the Office of Budget and Management, allowing them to be dismissed with little cause, similar to political appointments. It is unknown how many of the 2.1 million federal workers, many of whom deal with crafting policy or giving confidential advice top officials, could be affected.

'This Is Atrocious': Congress Crams Language to Criminalize Online Streaming, Meme-Sharing Into 5,500-Page Omnibus Bill -- Lawmakers in Congress are under fire from digital rights campaigners for embedding three controversial changes to online copyright and trademark laws into the must-pass$2.3 trillion legislative package—which includes a $1.4 trillion omnibus spending bill and a $900 billion Covid-19 relief bill—that could receive floor votes in the House and Senate as early as Monday evening.The punitive provisions crammed into the enormous bill (pdf), warned Evan Greer of the digital rights group Fight for the Future, "threaten ordinary Internet users with up to $30,000 in fines for engaging in everyday activity such as downloading an image and re-uploading it... [or] sharing memes."While the citizenry had almost no time to process the actual contents of the 5,593 page legislative text, Greer said Monday afternoon that the CASE Act, Felony Streaming Act, and Trademark Modernization Act "are in fact included in the must-pass omnibus spending bill."As Mike Masnick explained in a piece at TechDirt on Monday:The CASE Act will supercharge copyright trolling exactly at a time when we need to fix the law to have less trolling. And the felony streaming bill (which was only just revealed last week with no debate or discussion) includes provisions that are so confusing and vague no one is sure if it makes sites like Twitch into felons."The fact that these are getting added to the must-pass government funding bill is just bad government," Masnick added. "And congressional leadership should hear about this." According to Fight for the Future, "More than 20,000 people had called on House and Senate leadership to remove these dangerous and unnecessary provisions from the must-pass bill," yet Congress chose to include them anyway."This is atrocious," Greer said in her statement. "We're facing a massive eviction crisis and millions are unemployed due to the pandemic, but congressional leaders could only muster $600 stimulus checks for Covid relief."  And yet, lawmakers "managed to cram in handouts for content companies like Disney?" Greer continued. "The CASE Act is a terribly written law that will threaten ordinary Internet users with huge fines for everyday online activity. It's absurd that lawmakers included these provisions in a must-pass spending bill."

Trump Vetoes Defense Bill -  (AP) — President Donald Trump on Wednesday vetoed the annual defense policy bill, following through on threats to veto a measure that has broad bipartisan support in Congress and potentially setting up the first override vote of his presidency.The bill affirms 3% pay raises for U.S. troops and authorizes more than $740 billion in military programs and construction.Trump has offered a series of rationales for vetoing the bill. He has called for lawmakers to include limits on social media companies he claimed are biased against him. He has called for stripping out language that allows for the renaming of military bases such as Fort Benning and Fort Hood that honor Confederate leaders. Without going into detail, he has claimed the biggest winner from the defense bill would be China.Both the House and Senate passed the measure by margins large enough to override a veto from the president. Trump had vetoed eight bills previously, but those vetoes were sustained because supporters did not gain the two-thirds vote needed in each chamber for the bill to become law without Trump’s signature. In advance of the veto, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has said the bill would help deter Chinese aggression. Other GOP backers of the measure, including Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the second-ranking Senate leader, and Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, have tweeted that the bill would counter threats from countries such as China. Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Trump’s declaration that China was the biggest winner in the defense bill was false. Reed also noted the shifting explanations Trump had given for the veto. “President Trump clearly hasn’t read the bill, nor does he understand what’s in it,” Reed said.

President Trump throws Covid relief bill in doubt by asking Congress to amend it – - President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he is asking for changes to the coronavirus relief bill passed by Congress, leaving the future of the $900 billion stimulus in doubt. Trump's position could threaten to torpedo the carefully drafted bill, which his own administration helped negotiate -- a move that could lead to a government shutdown and send the economy into a tailspin if he carried through with a veto. "I'm asking Congress to amend this bill and increase the ridiculously low $600 to $2000 or $4000 per couple," Trump said in a video released on Twitter. "I'm also asking Congress to immediately get rid of the wasteful and unnecessary items in this legislation or to send me a suitable bill." The extraordinary message came after he largely left negotiations over the measure to lawmakers and his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Trump did not explicitly threaten to veto the bill, but said he was dissatisfied with its final state. "A few months ago, Congress started negotiations on a new package to get urgently needed help to the American people. It's taken forever," he said in the video. "However, the bill they are now planning to send back to my desk is much different than anticipated. It really is a disgrace." Still, Trump's message appeared to be greeted favorably by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who tweeted: "Republicans repeatedly refused to say what amount the President wanted for direct checks." "At last, the President has agreed to $2,000 — Democrats are ready to bring this to the Floor this week by unanimous consent," she said. "Let's do it!" Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, however, tweeted, "we're glad to pass more aid Americans need" but stressed that "Trump needs to sign the bill to help people and keep the government open."

Trump threatens COVID relief bill, testing loyalty of GOP -(AP) — Threatening to tank Congress’ massive COVID relief and government funding package, President Donald Trump’s demand for bigger aid checks for Americans is forcing Republicans traditionally wary of such spending into an uncomfortable test of allegiance. On Thursday, House Democrats who also favor $2,000 checks will all but dare Republicans to break with Trump, calling up his proposal for a Christmas Eve vote. The president’s last-minute objection could derail critical legislation amid a raging pandemic and deep economic uncertainty. His attacks risk a federal government shutdown by early next week. “Just when you think you have seen it all,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wrote Wednesday in a letter to colleagues. “The entire country knows that it is urgent for the President to sign this bill, both to provide the coronavirus relief and to keep government open.” Republicans led by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have resisted $2,000 checks as too costly. House Republicans are expected to block the vote, but Democrats may try again Monday. The president’s last-minute objections are setting up a defining showdown with his own Republican Party in his final days in office. Rather than take the victory of the sweeping aid package, among the biggest in history, Trump is lashing out at GOP leaders over the presidential election — for acknowledging Joe Biden as president-elect and rebuffing his campaign to dispute the Electoral College results when they are tallied in Congress on Jan. 6. The president’s push to increase direct payments for most Americans from $600 to $2,000 for individuals and $4,000 for couples splits the party with a politically painful loyalty test, including for GOP senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, fighting to retain their seats in the Jan. 5 special election in Georgia. Republican lawmakers traditionally balk at big spending and many never fully embraced Trump’s populist approach. Their political DNA tells them to oppose a costlier relief package. But now they’re being asked to stand with the president. GOP leaders were mostly silent Wednesday, with neither McConnell nor Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader, speaking publicly. On a conference call, House Republican lawmakers complained that Trump threw them under the bus, according to one Republican on the private call and granted anonymity to discuss it. Most had voted for the package and they urged leaders to hit the cable news shows to explain its benefits, the person said. McCarthy later sent a letter to colleagues suggesting Republicans would offer their own proposal, picking up on Trump’s own complaints about foreign aid to “reexamine how our tax dollars are spent overseas.” Democrats were taking advantage of the Republican disarray to apply pressure for a priority. Jon Ossoff, Perdue’s Democratic opponent, tweeted simply on Tuesday night: “$2,000 checks now.”

Stimulus Bill’s “Pathetic” $600 Checks and Pork Giveaways Are Savaged on Social Media; Trump, Belatedly, Demands Bigger Checks -Pam Martens - President Donald Trump has finally emerged from his consultations on the possibility of retaining the White House by declaring martial law to weigh in on the pandemic relief and appropriations bill that was passed by both houses of Congress and awaiting his signature to become law. Instead of speaking out before 510 members of Congress voted on the sprawling 5,593 page document, Trump waited until last night to post a video on his Twitter page in which he demands that the $600 stimulus checks in the bill be increased and pork removed. In the video, Trump cited some of the very same foreign loans and pork items that have been savaged on social media over the past two days. (See Tweets below.) Trump finished up the video with this: “Congress found plenty of money for foreign countries, lobbyists and special interests while sending the bare minimum to the American people who need it. It wasn’t their fault, it was China’s fault. Not their fault. I’m asking Congress to amend this bill and increase the ridiculously low $600 to $2000 or $4000 for a couple. I’m also asking Congress to immediately get rid of the wasteful and unnecessary items from this legislation and to send me a suitable bill or else the next administration will have to deliver a Covid relief package – and maybe that administration will be me. And we will get it done.” During his first campaign for the Presidency, Trump sold himself as the great deal maker. Trump is now attempting to renegotiate a 5,593 page deal after 412 members of the House and 98 members of the Senate have already negotiated and voted on its terms. We’ll see how that works out.  While the $600 checks could be easily increased to $2,000 through a standalone measure, exorcising all of the intricate pork would be a far bigger hurdle. For example, thoroughbred racehorse owners who reside in Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s home state of Kentucky might be unhappy with the removal of a special tax break for them that is buried in the bill. The tax provision permits racehorse owners to depreciate the value of qualifying racehorses. The C-suite might also be nonplussed with the removal of what is being called the 3-martini lunch tax provision. It increases from 50 percent to 100 percent the deduction of business-related meals. Millions of Americans will remember this Christmas as the bleakest moment in their lives. They lost their jobs as a result of the pandemic; they can’t pay their rent or adequately feed their families. They are stressing out over the possibility of getting sick from the virus because their health insurance was attached to their job – both of which are now gone. The $600 weekly unemployment insurance supplement that was part of the CARES Act, signed into law on March 27, lasted only four months and ended on July 31. Likewise, the one-time payment of $1200 under the CARES Act has long been exhausted by struggling families living in high-cost America.  The response to the worst pandemic since 1918 from the U.S. Congress stands in ugly contrast to what America’s neighbor to the north has done for workers and families. The Canadian government provided their workers that were impacted with layoffs or reduced hours because of the pandemic $2,000 per month for seven months, ending September 27. Canada’s more recent relief announcement includes $1200 in 2021 for each child under age six. Families with income of less than $120,000 per year will also receive four tax-free payments of $300 in 2021. Families earning more than $120,000 will receive four tax-free payments of $150.

Stimulus: Here's what Trump's attempt to upend the congressional deal means – CNNPolitics - President Donald Trump's surprise Tuesday night video cataloging his complaints about the massive -- and painstakingly negotiated -- $900 billion coronavirus relief bill immediately raised the specter of a government shutdown and economic turmoil at a time when aid is desperately sought for millions of Americans.  The President didn't explicitly threaten to veto the bill, and his White House said earlier in the night that he would sign it, but in a video released on Twitter, he added a layer of confusion to a delicate process that includes not only Covid-19 relief but a $1.4 trillion omnibus spending package that funds the federal government.  Most of the items the President listed off as problematic in his Tuesday night video weren't from the Covid relief piece of the package. They were from the omnibus. Most, if not all, of those items were similar to items in past spending packages the President has signed.As for his request to "amend" the bill, well, both chambers have passed the legislation, and at this point, aides on both sides say, there's no plan to make any move to acquiesce to the President's request on the cleared package. Early talk is that both sides may just ignore it and see if he cools off. The government is operating under a seven-day continuing resolution, so there's some time here. The real deadline is December 28. "Maybe he'll become obsessed with something else and forget about this whole episode," one senior Democratic aide told CNN. "Or maybe he'll just blow the thing up. Perfect coda to his time in office." But at the moment, aides on both sides of the aisle are mostly just dumbstruck. "It's a weird thing where I'm not at all surprised because of course he'd do this, but also kind of stunned because he's been so preoccupied with everything else that this seemed in a good place," one senior Republican aide told CNN. As to the size of the direct payments, that's been an issue Trump has talked to aides about for several weeks, according to two officials who spoke with him. The $600 level was actually the proposal of his Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, his lead negotiator on this entire deal -- both the Covid relief and the omnibus. Mnuchin was on television Tuesday selling the merits of the deal. While Trump had advocated for higher payments, he never explicitly threatened to torpedo the bill if they weren't included, a person familiar with the matter said. One other note: the package passed with a veto-proof majority, but it's not clear what that means if Trump decides to go nuclear on it. House Republicans tend to move wherever Trump moves, so the original vote count may not be operative. Still, it's too early for that. Right now, everyone is in wait-and-see mode.

COVID-19 relief bill: Wall Street sees an economic 'tailspin' if Trump doesn't sign  - Wall Street is moving quickly to crystalize around the view that if President Trump doesn’t sign a new $900 billion bipartisan COVID-19 stimulus bill, then investors will get torched. EvercoreISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere thinks a “tailspin” in markets and the economy will emerge if Trump doesn’t whip out his pen and sign on the dotted line immediately. Yet, that uncertainty is where things stand right now after Trump surprised many in D.C. with his take on the stimulus bill hammered out by bickering lawmakers in Congress this week. In a video posted on Twitter Tuesday evening (below), Trump said the relief package “really is disgraceful” and includes “wasteful” items. “It's called the Covid relief bill, but it has almost nothing to do with Covid," Trump said in a video now viewed 21.3 million times. Trump called for stimulus checks of $2,000 for individuals and $4,000 for households. Under the proposed legislation brought to Trump’s desk, single people earning up to $75,000 will receive a check of $600. Married couples bringing in $150,000 will get a check of $1,200. Both amounts are half of what was paid out directly to folks in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The bill also includes $1.4 trillion in funding to keep the government open. Stocks surprisingly shrugged off Trump’s bluster. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were all solidly in the green by afternoon trading Wednesday. But investors shouldn’t be lulled into complacency on the stimulus issue. Absent Trump’s signature, the government could risk another shutdown and households would continue to grapple with the financial fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. That would arguably create the condition for the “tailspin” suggested by EvercoreISI’s DeBusschere. “We would be going into recession by choice. This is something that the political actors in Washington have the power to prevent. And they should act to present it,” RSM US LLP Chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance Live. “If they don’t and this just continues well into January and nothing gets done, we are likely to see a double-dip recession. That still create conditions that will delay recovery and create an expansion that’s weaker than it otherwise has to be.” 

GOP blocks House Democrats' attempt to pass $2,000 stimulus checks - House Republicans on Thursday blocked a Democratic attempt to pass $2,000 direct payments to Americans, as the fate of the massive coronavirus relief package passed by Congress earlier in the week hangs in the balance. The Democrats moved to increase the size of the checks after President Donald Trump threatened to oppose the $2 trillion pandemic aid and federal funding bill because it included only $600 in direct payments rather than $2,000. Congress passed the proposal Monday after Trump took no role in weeks of talks. The plan included $900 billion in coronavirus relief. Trying to cap the plan's cost, most of Trump's Republican Party sought $600 in direct payments rather than the $1,200 passed in the CARES Act in March. In criticizing the year-end legislation, Trump also pointed to foreign aid spending — which Washington includes in funding bills every year. The House tried to pass the $2,000 payments during a pro forma session on Christmas Eve day, a brief meeting of the chamber where typically only a few members attend. Democrats aimed to approve the measure by unanimous consent, which means any one lawmaker can block it. Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., offered the proposal from the House floor, but was blocked because the measure was not approved by House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. Subsequently, Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., attempted to get lawmakers to reconsider aspects of the spending bill related to foreign aid. That move was blocked by Democrats.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement after her party's measure failed that she would hold a full recorded vote on the proposal for $2,000 payments on Monday. "If the President is serious about the $2,000 direct payments, he must call on House Republicans to end their obstruction," Pelosi said. Democrats have called on Trump to sign the coronavirus relief and government funding bill into law and to support the separate cash payment plan. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and McCarthy, the top two Republicans in Congress, and their aides have been silent on Trump's demand for bigger checks. But McCarthy, in a letter late Wednesday to Republicans, described a countermove his party planned to make on Thursday that would seek changes to the foreign aid component of the spending bill. It is unclear who would be eligible for $2,000 payments in the Democrats' plan. In the aid and government funding bill, individuals who earn up to $75,000 and couples filing jointly who make up to $150,000 would receive the full $600. In addition, the measure would pay $600 for each dependent child. Trump did not address the payments to children. If Trump vetoes the legislation, Congress may have enough support to override his action. However, depending on how quickly the more than 5,000-page bill gets to his desk after formal enrollment, he could let it die by refusing to sign it before the new session of Congress starts at noon ET on Jan. 3.

Trump vetoing the Covid stimulus bill could be disastrous. But signing it is only the first step. - Americans around the country are suffering because of Covid-19. But it is our nation’s most vulnerable who have been the hardest hit by the economic effects of the pandemic: low-income families with children. Many have lost jobs, while those who are still employed have often lost hours and tips. Hunger among families with young children, which was already unconscionably high for the world’s richest nation before the pandemic, has more than doubled. While we know this pandemic won’t last forever, children can’t just wait to eat. Child poverty today means lost growth and development and lost opportunities to learn — it’s hard to study on an empty stomach, or while worried about being evicted. Child poverty today means lost growth and development and lost opportunities to learn — it’s very hard to study on an empty stomach, or while worried about getting evicted. The relief plan passed by Congress on Monday night will at least help start addressing this disaster — assuming President Donald Trump even signs it into law, which is now an open question. The bill includes substantial increases in nutrition assistance, including more help for families with the youngest kids and for low-income college students, two particularly vulnerable groups that had been missed by the CARES Act in March. It also extends the eviction moratorium and provides more rental assistance, which helps with hunger because, in struggling households, the rent eats first. But the cash families will receive — $600 stimulus checks and $300 unemployment insurance supplements that are half the size of those provided by the CARES Act — is simply not enough.   We’ve been following a panel of hourly service workers with young children since 2019. Our ongoing research shows that even when help from the CARES Act peaked in early summer, half of these families were living on less than before the crisis began. As aid dried up this fall, that rose to nearly two-thirds. Despite the claims of some politicians that generous unemployment benefits were keeping people unemployed, in our panel we’ve seen no rise in employment since supplements ended this summer. Instead, we’ve seen unemployed families simply struggle more, with a majority now trying to scrape by on less than half their former income. And the money in this new bill will not even restore them to the desperate straits of June. Worse, this bill adds new hoops to qualifying for unemployment insurance. Many laid-off low-income workers have difficulty securing documentation of earnings from gig work, tips and the like. At the same time, state benefits offices, overloaded by the unparalleled number and types of new claims, have struggled to process even the simplest paperwork — many workers in our study waited months to receive their assistance, and some are still waiting. Similar bureaucratic hurdles have kept many of our families from accessing nutrition programs, Medicaid and more. While the CARES Act recognized this, at least for unemployment insurance, and reduced paperwork requirements, the new bill reinstates them, likely increasing the share of people who cannot qualify, and further jamming up the system, so that even those with their papers in order may not be able to successfully submit. And the relief in this bill is short-lived. Stimulus payments are one-time (despite the fact that many other countries have committed to monthly stimulus payments to all for the duration of the pandemic). The eviction moratorium ends in February, unemployment supplements in March, nutrition benefits in June. Yet, with current projections that 60 million to 100 million adultswill still not have access to a vaccine by the end of June, families will need help for long after the start of summer. And given that 1 in 6 children were food insecure and that 3 in 10 lived in rent-burdened households prior to the pandemic, policies like expanded nutrition and rent assistance will continue to be needed even when the pandemic finally ends.

Larry Summers’ Opposition to $2000 Covid Payments Confirms Our Classic: “Why Larry Summers Should Not Be Permitted to Run Anything More Important than a Dog Pound” - - Yves Smith - Unfortunately, it looks like Larry Summers will always be with us: I don't get how anyone with a straight face can believe one time 2000 dollar checks would overheat the economy. Quote Tweet @BloombergTV · Dec 24 "$2,000 checks would be a pretty serious mistake." Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says larger stimulus checks to Americans could risk overheating the economy https://trib.al/gYJtefL Or as reader Doug put it: Mr. Summers,The particular temperature of the economy is — and this will quite obviously come as a bit of a shock to you — of no importance right now.People are suffering.I realize in using the word “people”, I am alluding to a phenomenon that is not in your vocabulary or data set.But, then, you are a grade A asshole.Indeed, you are just as much a sociopath as Dear Leader DJTYou ought to seek help before it is too late. At best, Summers’ boneheaded remark shows that he is aggressively defending Joe Biden’s views. Recall that David Sirota recently translated the New York Times’ reporting on Biden’s intervention in the stimulus bill as Biden’s Austerity Zealotry Helped Cut The Stimulus Bill In Half: Now, in the whittling down of the stimulus legislation, we see the first concrete example of how Biden’s ideology can change policy in the here and now — and in deeply destructive ways.As pain and suffering is crescendoing across the country, Biden refrained from aggressively pushing the bipartisan initiative for $1,200 survival checks. Indeed, at a time when there was a legitimate chance to flip some Republicans — including Donald Trump! — against McConnell and push for a more robust stimulus, he demurred.However, the New York Times reminds us today that Biden was “not an idle bystander in the negotiations.” On the contrary, the paper of record tells us that the president-elect played a decisive role in making sure the legislation was cut in half. For those of you not well versed in Summers’ sorry record, this post might fill in some gaps.

 Anger at Congress, Trump mounts among governors --Governors facing the prospect of hundreds of thousands of their constituents losing out on badly needed relief during the coronavirus pandemic grew increasingly frustrated as Congress dragged its feet on a legislative package, and many became downright apoplectic after President Trump this week blew up delicate negotiations by saying he was not happy with a bill in which he previously paid little interest. In interviews Wednesday and Thursday, top advisers to both Democratic and Republican governors said that anger at the lack of a coordinated federal response to combat the pandemic had reached a boiling point during negotiations over a relief package. “Honestly I’ve never been so disgusted with Congress,” said a chief of staff to one Democratic governor. “We’ve been pulling our hair out for months. The federal government has not made a single step of the process of dealing with this pandemic easier. Not one single step.” The chief of staff, like others interviewed for this story, asked for anonymity to avoid angering both the Trump administration and Senate Republicans, who have said they will not consider new aid to state and local governments in future relief packages. Congress approved a $900 billion relief package on Tuesday, a bill that includes $300 weekly supplemental jobless benefits and one-time $600 payments to millions of Americans struggling to make ends meet. Later on Tuesday, Trump said he was dissatisfied with an agreement he called “a disgrace.” He called on Congress to amend the legislation to boost the one-time payments to $2,000 per individual and to rid the bill of funding that his own administration had requested in its annual budget. Trump did not threaten to veto the measure outright, though if he does not sign it in short order, state officials said there will be a gap between unemployment checks that millions are relying on in the midst of rising unemployment rates. “The longer the president waits to sign [the bill], the longer it will take the Department of Labor to turn around guidance, the longer it will take us to get that new relief out,” said a top aide to one Republican governor. “Think of all the businesses within a week or two of deciding to close that would hang on because of the extension of PPP. The effect of further delay there would be immediate.”

Bipartisan, bicameral group urges Trump to sign COVID-19 relief package  A group of Republican and Democratic lawmakers from the House and Senate is calling on President Trump to sign a $900 billion coronavirus relief bill that he recently said should include bigger stimulus checks. The 13 lawmakers, who previously put forth a $908 billion compromise measure, urged Trump to sign the measure into law, citing the need to provide immediate help to workers, businesses, schools and hospitals. “As members of the bipartisan, bicameral ‘908 Coalition,’ we urge the President to sign the COVID relief package. The legislation would bring desperately needed help to struggling families, unemployed workers, hard-hit small businesses, an overburdened health care system, stressed schools, and so many others. It would provide robust funding for testing and vaccine distribution at a critical time," the lawmakers wrote. “By signing the bill, the President would be providing the best possible Christmas gift to the American people," they added. The letter was signed by lawmakers including Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah), as well as the co-chairs of the bipartisan centrist House Problem Solvers Caucus. Trump unexpectedly bashed the COVID-19 relief package Tuesday, saying the $600 stimulus checks it provides should be increased to $2,000 each. His opposition caught Democrats and Republicans alike by surprise since he did not voice any concerns with the bill until after it was passed by Congress, following negotiations that included Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The COVID-19 relief package was paired with a $1.4 trillion omnibus measure that would keep the government open through Sept. 30. Trump also voiced displeasure with several aspects of the government funding bill, particularly the provisions on foreign aid, even though his White House budget request called for such aid. Trump has not explicitly threatened to veto the $2.3 trillion package, but it's unclear whether he will sign or reject the measure.

Relief bill in Trump limbo arrives at Mar-a-Lago  -The $2.3 trillion government funding and coronavirus relief package that was passed by Congress has arrived at President Trump’s resort in Florida. A source familiar with the situation confirmed to The Hill that the bill has arrived at Mar-a-Lago, where the president is staying for the holidays. The package faces an uncertain fate after Trump panned the bill this week following months of back-and-forth talks with congressional Democrats and Republicans. Trump has not actually threatened to veto the package, though he has also not said he will sign it. A number of Republicans including Sen. Roy Blunt (Mo.) have urged him to sign the package to prevent a government shutdown and a cessation of unemployment benefits. “The best way out of this is for the president to sign the bill,” Blunt, a member of Senate GOP leadership, told reporters on Thursday. Unemployment benefits are set to expire on Saturday if they are not renewed, while a government shutdown would begin on Tuesday without action by the president or the passage of a new bill by Congress, which would also have to be signed by Trump before Tuesday. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Hill regarding if Trump plans to sign or veto the bill. Congress passed legislation earlier this week that includes a $900 billion COVID-19 relief measure and $1.4 trillion omnibus to fund the government until October. Among the provisions of the relief part of the package are stimulus checks for up to $600 per adult and per child, an extension of two coronavirus-era unemployment programs and the addition of $300 to all weekly unemployment benefits and $284 billion for small businesses through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The president specifically called on Congress to raise the amount of the stimulus checks from $600 to $2,000. Democrats in the House offered legislation on Thursday to do so, but it was blocked by Republicans. Trump also tore into spending provisions such as $85.5 million for assistance to Cambodia and $40 million for the Kennedy Center in Washington that were included in the omnibus and signed off on by his administration and Republicans. His decision to announce his sudden opposition caught members of both parties off guard.

Millions of Americans lose jobless benefits as Trump refuses to sign aid bill  (Reuters) - Millions of Americans saw their jobless benefits expire on Saturday after U.S. President Donald Trump refused to sign into law a $2.3 trillion pandemic aid and spending package, protesting that it did not do enough to help everyday people. Trump stunned Republicans and Democrats alike when he said this week he was unhappy with the massive bill, which provides $892 billion in badly needed coronavirus relief, including extending special unemployment benefits expiring on Dec. 26, and $1.4 trillion for normal government spending. Without Trump’s signature, about 14 million people could lose those extra benefits, according to Labor Department data. A partial government shutdown will begin on Tuesday unless Congress can agree a stop-gap government funding bill before then. After months of wrangling, Republicans and Democrats agreed to the package last weekend, with the support of the White House. Trump, who hands over power to Democratic President-elect Joe Biden on Jan. 20, did not object to terms of the deal before Congress voted it through on Monday night. But since then he has complained that the bill gives too much money to special interests, cultural projects and foreign aid, while its one-time $600 stimulus checks to millions of struggling Americans were too small. He has demanded that be raised to $2,000. “Why would politicians not want to give people $2,000, rather than only $600?...Give our people the money!” the billionaire president tweeted.

Graham: Trump 'more determined than ever' to get bigger stimulus payments - Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Friday night after spending part of the day with President Trump that the president is "more determined than ever" to stick by his demand for bigger stimulus payments for Americans than those approved by Congress in a bill passed this week. Graham's remarks come as Trump and Congress are locked in a standoff over the size of payments to millions of Americans as part of the latest COVID-19 relief bill, after the House and Senate overwhelmingly passed legislation that Trump has criticized and not signed, putting it in limbo. "After spending some time with President @realDonaldTrump today, I am convinced he is more determined than ever to increase stimulus payments to $2000 per person and challenge Section 230 big tech liability protection," Graham tweeted on Friday night. "Both are reasonable demands, and I hope Congress is listening. The biggest winner would be the American people," he added. Graham, a top Trump ally in Congress, weighed in after spending time golfing with the president at his club in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Friday. The president is staying at his nearby Mar-a-Lago resort for the holidays. The $2.3 trillion government funding and coronavirus relief package arrived at Mar-a-Lago this week, though its fate is unclear. While he has not threatened to veto the bill, the president also has not said he'll sign it. Trump has been at odds with Congress this week over the latest coronavirus deal, with his surprise opposition to the legislation throwing the latest relief bill and government funding package into uncertainty. The president has criticized the $900 billion COVID-19 deal, which came after months of slow-moving negotiations between both parties as well as his administration, by focusing on the size of the payments to Americans. He has called for $2,000 payments instead of the $600 payments that lawmakers approved along with a number of other provisions to provide economic relief amid the pandemic. The coronavirus deal was passed along with a $1.4 trillion package to fund the federal government through October. Republicans have urged Trump to sign the legislation, with unemployment benefits set to expire Saturday and a shutdown looming starting Tuesday unless the president signs the bill or Congress passes a new measure and the president signs it. The president indicated in tweets on Christmas Day and on Saturday that he was still pushing for bigger payments for Americans. "Made many calls and had meetings at Trump International in Palm Beach, Florida. Why would politicians not want to give people $2000, rather than only $600? It wasn’t their fault, it was China. Give our people the money!" he tweeted earlier Friday. "I simply want to get our great people $2000, rather than $600. Also, Congress should cut the 'pork,'" he added in another tweet Saturday. Trump has separately criticized an annual defense policy bill, referenced by Graham, and vetoed the legislation this week. The president blasted the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act for failing to repeal a key liability shield for social media companies, known as Section 230.

Progressives tell Biden: Don't roll out the red carpet for "torture enablers" -It was painful enough to live through the U.S invasion of Iraq that caused untold devastation and human misery for no justifiable reason. Now we are again reminded of the grim legacy of the George W. Bush administration with President-elect Biden's nomination of Avril Haines as director of national intelligence. Haines, who has an inside-the-Beltway reputation for being nice and soft-spoken, was a little too nice to CIA agents who hacked into the computers of Senate Intelligence Committee investigators looking into the CIA use of torture — waterboarding, sleep deprivation, hypothermia, rectal feeding, whippings, sexual humiliation — at Guantánamo Bay and Afghan prisons during the Bush-era "war on terror." As deputy director of the CIA in the Obama administration, Haines chose not to discipline those CIA hackers who violated the separation of powers, crossing the boundary line and beaching the firewall between the executive and legislative branches. To add insult to injury, Haines led the team that redacted an exhaustive five-year, 6,000-page Senate Intelligence Committee Report on Torture until it was reduced to a censored, 500-page summary smeared with black ink to cover up the horrors and shield those responsible.That's why torture survivors and their advocates have just released a damning Open Letter urging senators to vote no on Haines when her nomination lands in their laps in mid-January or February, after the cyber-pomp and circumstance of a virtual presidential inauguration. The letter, signed by several decade-long detainees and survivors of torture at Guantánamo, also objects to the possible nomination of Michael Morell — who was a CIA analyst under Bush and two-time acting director under Obama — as CIA director. "Elevating torture apologists to a leadership position within the Biden administration will damage the USA's standing and give the world's dictators succor and comfort," said Djamel Ameziane, a Guantánamo detainee from Algeria who was tortured and held without charge from 2002 to 2013, until he was finally released from prison.

  Someone Should Ask Biden Cabinet Candidate Ursula Burns If She Supports Child Labor in Africa - Buried amid the coverage of yet another horrible person being considered for a Biden cabinet post — in this case, ex-Xerox CEO Ursula Burns for Secretary of Commerce — is a nugget that’s so stunning in magnitude, so steeped in irony, and yet so common an egg in the nest of neoliberal thinking as to be entirely unremarkable.  The Commerce secretary coverage comes from Alexander Sammon writing at the American Prospect:   Sammon goes on to detail the horror stories, including Xerox’s acquisition of Affiliated Computer Services (ACS) in 2009. What is ACS? It’s these guys: ACS … had as part of their portfolio one of the most notorious student loan servicer operations in the country. Just this year, the American Federation of Teachers and the Student Borrower Protection Center released a scathing report detailing over five million ACS servicing errors that helped undermine the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program, intended to allow graduates who pursued public-service jobs in government or nonprofits to have their loan balances canceled after ten years of payments. “Rather than alleviating the debt burden of students committed to public service, ACS ran roughshod over them, making careless errors and pushing them into forbearance and onerous repayment plans,” Biden already lacks credibility on the student debt problem, having worked so hard to exacerbate it. Appointing someone who helped make it even worse would be a masterstroke of insensitivity.  Sammon details much else that would be wrong with a Burns appointment, but that’s not the nugget I wanted to remark on. This is:  After leaving Xerox, Burns found seats on three corporate boards that no one should sit on ever:Uber, a Saudi-funded scam, a “long con” that will never be profitable until public transportation is destroyed and all cars driven by AI; Exxon, a massive carbon pollution manufacturer that hasknown since the Seventies that its profit would come from the disaster it creates; and Nestlé, one of the most predatory corporations in the world.  How predatory is Nestlé? Search on the phrase “nestle evil” to get a sense of the range of its deeds. The largest food company in the world, Nestlé steals and sells water while simultaneously promoting the idea that water as a human right is an “extreme” position to hold, even though the U.N. holds it. And despite propaganda to the contrary, Nestlé uses child labor in Africa to harvest cocoa for its signature chocolate products. It’s clear that the treatment of these children istantamount to slavery.

COVID-19 could complicate Pelosi's path to Speaker next year  - As Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) seeks the support to keep the gavel for another term, her allies are keeping close watch on a potential wild card that could complicate her path next month: COVID-19.Pelosi is already facing a much slimmer majority in the next Congress, after Democrats were clobbered at the polls in November, meaning she can afford far fewer Democratic defections than the 15 who opposed her two years ago. And lawmakers must be present on the House floor to cast their vote for Speaker, precluding the option for members to vote remotely, as many have done throughout the pandemic. The combination of factors creates the chance that Democrats could face a dilemma on Jan. 3 in which Pelosi locks up the Democratic support to remain Speaker, but coronavirus concerns — illnesses, quarantines or otherwise — prevent a sufficient number of them from being in the Capitol to log their votes.A failure of Pelosi to secure support from half the voting members would, at the very least, throw the process into chaos. In the Democrats’ nightmare scenario, the math could tilt so far in the Republicans’ favor that it yields a GOP Speaker.“Let's say, just theoretically, we had six or eight people out with Covid and the Republicans have none. They probably could elect [Kevin] McCarthy,” said Rep. John Yarmuth(D-Ky.), referring to the House GOP leader.   Lawmakers were reminded of their vulnerability this week, when five more members of the House tested positive for COVID-19, bringing the total number of infected lawmakers to at least 35 since the pandemic hit the U.S. roughly a year ago.With that in mind, Pelosi’s supporters say it’s an outbreak over the holidays — not Democratic detractors — that poses the single greatest threat to Pelosi’s otherwise-expected Speakership victory next month.  “We're in a health care crisis, right? No one can get sick. That's the X-factor here,” said one House Democrat, a Pelosi ally, who spoke anonymously to discuss a sensitive topic. “We need everyone to be healthy. ... That's the big fear.”

Search persists for parents of 628 kids separated at border (AP) — A court-appointed committee has yet to find the parents of 628 children separated at the border early in the Trump administration, according to a court filing Wednesday that also said the government last week provided additional phone numbers to aid the long-running search. Parents of 333 children are believed to be in the United States, while parents of the other 295 are believed to be outside the U.S. That doesn’t necessarily mean the parents and children are still separated, only that the committee has been unable to locate the parents. The committee has found other family members for 168 of the 628 children whose parents have yet to be located. The joint filing by attorneys for the Justice Department and families offers the latest snapshot of efforts to reunite families under a “zero tolerance” policy on illegal border crossings that resulted in thousands of separations when parents were criminally prosecuted. On Nov. 25, the administration provided the search committee with phone numbers and other information from a database of the Justice Department’s Executive Office for Immigration Review, which manages immigration courts, the filing said. Lee Gelernt, an attorney representing parents for the American Civil Liberties Union, said he had been pressing the administration for any additional information for the last year. “We just received this new information the day before Thanksgiving and only because the global outcry over the fact that these parents had not been found,” he said in an interview. The search committee said it is too early to know how useful the additional phone numbers will be in finding more parents. More than 2,700 children were separated from their parents in June 2018 when U.S. District Judge Dana Sabraw in San Diego ordered an end to the practice under the “zero-tolerance” policy. He ordered them reunited within 30 days. The 628 children whose parents are still not accounted for were separated before the judge’s order, going back to July 1, 2017, and were all released from federal custody before the June 2018 order. Children from that period are difficult to find because the government had inadequate tracking systems. They include hundreds separated during a trial run of the policy in El Paso, Texas, from July to November 2017 that was not publicly disclosed at the time.

Birx traveled over Thanksgiving weekend after warning Americans to limit celebrations to household -White House coronavirus response coordinator Deborah Birx traveled to her Delaware vacation home during the Thanksgiving weekend despite advising people to celebrate the holiday with only those in their immediate household.The Associated Press reported that Birx traveled with family members from two other households. Birx told the AP in a statement the purpose of the trip was to winterize the property before an upcoming sale.“I did not go to Delaware for the purpose of celebrating Thanksgiving,” Birx said, adding that her family shared a meal while in Delaware.Birx said that all of the gathered family members belonged to her "immediate household" but also said they lived in two different homes.According to federal guidelines, Birx's role makes her an "essential worker." Her position requires her to travel across the country, and she has visited 43 states, often at coronavirus hot spots, the AP reported. She also maintains an office at the White House, where several COVID-19 outbreaks have occurred.Birx has stated that she keeps herself and her family safe through isolating, mask-wearing and regular testing. She is among the lawmakers and officials who have been criticized for traveling or dining out despite sending similar warnings to people to stay at home.Denver Mayor Michael Hancock (D) apologized after facing backlash for traveling to Mississippi over the Thanksgiving weekend despite telling his residents to stay put. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) faced condemnation for attending a 12-person party after urging people to avoid such gatherings. The governor later apologized for his attendance. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) altered his in-person Thanksgiving plans after he received backlash for saying his 89-year-old mother and two daughters were traveling to Albany to celebrate the holiday.

Pompeo's wife tested positive for COVID-19: report -Susan Pompeo, the wife of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, tested positive for the coronavirus earlier this month, leading her husband to quarantine, according to sources close to the matter, Bloomberg reports. The unnamed sources told Bloomberg that Susan Pompeo tested positive right before her husband announced he would be going into quarantine on Dec. 16 after an exposure to the virus. The secretary of State later tested negative for the virus. At the time, the State Department did not identify who had exposed Pompeo. Mike Pompeo's public schedule showed that he was to attend a reception for the families of diplomats one day before he went into quarantine. The decision to host a holiday party in the midst of a worsening pandemic was highly criticized by health experts who worried it could become a “superspreader” event. The event was also criticized for going directly against the department's own policies that instructed State Department employees to avoid going to “non-mission critical events," and instead encouraging them to go for virtual gatherings. Bloomberg notes that the State Department did not specify how long Mike Pompeo planned on quarantining and his Dec. 21 public schedule had him attending meetings and briefings at the department. On Monday, the State Department announced it would be tightening COVID-19 rules for its employees, returning to phase one of the department's "Diplomacy Strong" strategy. Following the article from Bloomberg, Pompeo slammed the report calling it "patently false" adding that he and his wife did not attend any holiday parties at the White House or the State Department. "My wife and I did not attend any State Department nor White House holiday parties — your statement is patently FALSE," he tweeted. "This isn’t journalism and it’s worse than gossip — it’s unethical and potentially unlawful. Stay tuned."

 US requiring negative coronavirus tests for travelers from UK -The U.S. is requiring airline passengers arriving from the U.K. to provide negative coronavirus tests before boarding their flights, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said late Thursday night. Under the new order, passengers arriving from the U.K. must test negative no more than 72 hours before their departures. Passengers must provide written documentation of their test results to the airline and the airline must confirm the negative test results for all passengers. If a passenger chooses not to take a test, the airline must deny boarding to the passenger, the CDC said. The order will be signed Friday and go into effect Monday, according to the agency. The ramped-up measure comes after public health authorities in the U.K announced the discovery of a new variant of the coronavirus that may be up to 70 percent more transmissible than the initial strain. Since the new variant was discovered, roughly 40 countries have imposed travel bans on Great Britain, The Associated Press noted.

Tulsi Gabbard calls for halt on UK flights to US over new COVID strain - Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, called Saturday for a halt on all flights from the United Kingdom into the U.S. amid increasing concern about a new, more infectious strain of COVID-19. "The U.S. needs to temporarily halt all flights from the U.K. into the U.S. to stop more infectious mutation of COVID from entering the U.S. This should have been done days ago," tweeted Gabbard, a former presidential hopeful. Gabbard was reacting to new rules from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that require passengers from the U.K. to have proof of a negative COVID-19 test before their flight -- a move she said did not go far enough. "Negative tests from passengers is not sufficient," she tweeted. "It's too little, too late." The new rules about U.K. travel go into effect Monday. That is in addition to President Trump’s proclamation in March that barred the entry of foreign nationals who had visited the U.K. in the last 14 days from coming into the U.S. -- a move that the CDC said reduced travel from the U.K. to the U.S. by about 90%. 

Trump held White House meeting on martial law plan to overturn election - President Donald Trump and his top aides reviewed a series of proposals for overturning his defeat in the presidential election at a meeting Friday night in the White House. This included discussion of a proposal that he declare martial law and order the seizure of voting machines in key battleground states, according to numerous press accounts. The New York Times first reported on the meeting, which involved Trump, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, White House Counsel Pat Cipollone and two prominent advocates of an election coup, former Trump campaign attorney Sidney Powell and former Trump national security advisor Gen. Michael Flynn. Additional details were reported by CNN, ABC, NBC and other news outlets. It was the first meeting at the White House for Flynn since Trump pardoned him on two counts of perjury for lying to the FBI during the investigation, in the early days of the Trump administration, that led to his firing as national security advisor. It was the first White House visit for Powell since she was dismissed by the Trump campaign after voicing a series of bizarre conspiracy theories in which Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (dead since 2013) was held responsible for manipulating the 2020 US presidential election. Trump’s welcoming such discredited figures into the White House undoubtedly expresses mounting desperation, but also an utter refusal to concede the result of the election, won by Biden with a margin of more than seven million votes. While acting like a cornered rat, Trump, as president of the United States for another month, still possesses immense powers, particularly over the US military-intelligence apparatus. General Flynn visited the White House one day after suggesting, in an interview on the rabidly pro-Trump Newsmax network, that Trump should declare martial law, order voting machines in six key states seized by federal authorities, and conduct a second election in those states under military supervision. This would, of course, mean armed soldiers insuring that the voters of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin got it “right” this time, i.e., that the electoral votes of these states, officially delivered to Democrat Joe Biden on December 14 as a result of each state’s balloting, were instead awarded to Trump. According to the press accounts, Trump asked General Flynn about his proposal for martial law and a second election. Meadows and Cipollone, and other unidentified White House officials, reportedly opposed Flynn and said the president did not have the authority to take the proposed actions. Powell, who was Flynn’s lawyer in his perjury case before joining the effort of the Trump campaign to overturn the election results, was said to have denounced the White House officials for being insufficiently devoted to Trump’s interests. The meeting was characterized as ending in a “screaming” match, without a clear decision as to what course Trump would take. At one point, Trump suggested he might appoint Powell as a special counsel to investigate the presidential election, a proposal that was opposed by White House officials and even by Trump’s principal election lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who is recovering from the coronavirus and participated in the meeting remotely.

Trump is getting angry with Mike Pence for not joining in his attempts to overturn the election, report says --President Donald Trump is furious at people in his circle he thinks are not supporting him, Axios reported.That includes Vice President Mike Pence, the outlet said. Pence has a habit of not being around for Trump's most damaging moments.Trump thinks that those who are not fighting in his corner are, in Axios' words, "weak, stupid or disloyal" and "beneath contempt." President Donald Trump is furious at Vice President Mike Pence and other top White House officials who are not joining his futile attempts to overturn the 2020 election, Axios reported Tuesday, citing multiple top officials.The outlet said the president was "turning bitterly on virtually every person around him" who he believes is not supporting him.Trump thinks that those who are not fighting in his corner are, in Axios' words, "weak, stupid or disloyal" and "beneath contempt."Trump has complained about Pence and recently brought up an ad by the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump Republican super PAC, that said the vice president was "backing away" from him, Axios reported.The outlet said Trump was also unhappy with Mark Meadows, his chief of staff; Pat Cipollone, the White House counsel; Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.Top White House aides have for weeks been trying to distance themselves from Trump and his fruitless election lawsuits, according to multiple reports.Axios reported that Trump had been asking his advisors if they could order state legislatures to rescind their electoral votes - and that when he is told no, he gets angry again.

2 Jewish Wisconsin judges rejected a Trump case. Now anti-Semites are after them - Two Wisconsin Supreme Court justices have received a torrent of misogynistic and anti-Semitic messages in the days after they denounced — and then voted to reject — an attempt by US President Donald Trump’s lawyers to invalidate hundreds of thousands of votes in their state.One commenter said Justice Jill Karofsky was “hooked-nosed” and posted a corresponding anti-Semitic caricature of her. Another called her a “terrorist” and said she should “have a massive fatal heart attack on live TV.”Her colleague Rebecca Dallet was called a “traitor” by a Facebook commenter, who also warned the justice that “the best case scenario for you is that you actually get a trial. When the people rise up that won’t happen.”The Daily Stormer, a neo-Nazi publication, published an article about the two judges on Sunday, calling them “an elite Jew sitting next to another Jew determining the course of our government.”Karofsky was a target of Trump’s Twitter ire earlier this year as well, when he baselessly claimed her election to the court was fraudulent.A campaign consultant for the justices who shared those posts and others with the Jewish Telegraphic Agency said they have received dozens of messages with obscene language in the days since the case was argued and decided in court. The court rejected the lawsuit in a 4-3 decision Monday — the same day that the Electoral College affirmed Joe Biden’s victory in the November election.Karofsky and Dallet declined to speak with JTA, but the campaign consultant, Sachin Chheda, said both are concerned for their safety and have been in touch with law enforcement. “The volume and intensity of the feedback they’re getting has hit a new level,” Chheda said. “It is more vile, it is more racist, it is more gendered, it is more threatening than what we have seen in the past.”

Trump campaign persists with election challenges less than 2 weeks from key Jan. 6 date | Fox News - President Trump and his campaign are continuing to challenge the result of November's presidential election, with a number of cases still ongoing less than two weeks before electoral votes are officially counted by Congress on Jan. 6. The Trump campaign’s latest legal move was in the form of a Supreme Court petition filed Sunday asking the court to hear the challenges of several Pennsylvania state court rulings. The petition refers to three state court rulings that eliminated requirements for signature verification for absentee ballots and the proper filling out of ballot declarations and allowed poll watchers to be kept at a distance where they could not fully observe the counting process, as long as they were present in the room. The petition also included a fourth case, which has already been brought to the Supreme Court’s attention, where the campaign challenged the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s ruling that extended the deadline for accepting mailed ballots to three days after Election Day. The court has yet to announce whether they will hear that case. In their petition, the Trump campaign insists that the Jan. 6 date is not a deadline at all and that they have at least until Inauguration Day on Jan. 20. On Thursday, however, the Supreme Court gave Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar until Jan. 22 to respond to Trump's petition before they decide how to move forward. The state of Georgia was decided by less than 12,000 votes, and the Trump campaign is contesting the result alongside Republican elector David Shafer. The campaign had sought emergency relief from the state Supreme Court, which sent it down to go through the lower court process, where it had been assigned to Superior Court Judge Constance Russell, who is retiring at the end of 2020.

Supreme Court in no hurry to hear Trump campaign case, sets response deadline two days after inauguration  - The latest Trump campaign appeal to the Supreme Court won't see any action from the justices until after the inauguration. The justices this week set a reply deadline for Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar and the other respondents named in the case of Jan. 22. The campaign had asked for the Supreme Court to order those on the other side of the litigation to respond by Wednesday and have reply briefs from the Trump campaign submitted by Thursday. It also asked the court to rule by Jan. 6. But the court did not oblige. This means that by the time Boockvar and the others the Trump campaign is seeking to take to the Supreme Court even respond to the petition, President-elect Joe Biden will already be sworn in. At that point, the court could simply decline to hear the case, saying it is moot or impossible for them to resolve at that point. Congress will have already counted electoral votes and certified the next president -- that meeting happens on Jan. 6. The Trump campaign, however, argued in its brief that even Inauguration Day would not make the court "moot" because such issues could happen in the future, and therefore the court should resolve them ahead of time. The Trump campaign, in a statement over the weekend when it announced the petition, cited a statement from Justice Samuel Alito in which he cast doubt on whether it was constitutional for Pennsylvania to have its judicial branch make changes to laws governing the presidential election. "This petition follows a related Pennsylvania case where Justice Alito and two other justices observed ‘the constitutionality of the [Pennsylvania] Supreme Court’s decision [extending the statutory deadline for receipt of mail ballots from 8 pm on election day to 5 pm three days later] … has national importance, and there is a strong likelihood that the State Supreme Court decision violates the Federal Constitution,'" Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani said.

Trump criticizes Senate Republicans ahead of election results vote, urges a 'fight' - President Trump on Saturday ramped up his criticism of Senate Republicans over their unwillingness to aid his efforts to overturn the election, pressing them to “fight” before President-elect Joe Biden is sworn into office. Trump called out Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and other Republicans, asserting they are doing "NOTHING" as Congress heads toward a vote early next month to certify the Electoral College results. “If a Democrat Presidential Candidate had an Election Rigged & Stolen, with proof of such acts at a level never seen before, the Democrat Senators would consider it an act of war, and fight to the death. Mitch & the Republicans do NOTHING, just want to let it pass. NO FIGHT!” Trump tweeted. The comment marked the latest broadside in Trump’s attempt to get at least one GOP senator to back a challenge to the Electoral College results when Congress meets to certify them on Jan. 6. Thus far, no Republicans in the upper chamber have definitively said they will back a challenge that’s being pushed by several GOP members in the House, though Alabama Sen.-elect Tommy Tuberville (R) has suggested he may back the challenge. Senate Republicans are hoping to avoid a bitter fight with the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue over the Electoral College results as Trump ramps up his pressure campaign to convince Tuberville to join his House allies. “Ultimately every senator will have to make their own decision about that but I think there will be people, yeah, reaching out him just to kind of find out” what he’s going to do, Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said of Tuberville’s intentions about the Electoral College tally. “I’m hoping in the end that all senators will conclude that this election needs to be over with and it’s time to move on,” Thune, the No. 2 Senate Republican, added. Trump earlier in the week went after Thune while lashing out at Senate Republicans ahead of the January certification vote, suggesting that the top GOP senator would be primaried in two years. “Republicans in the Senate so quickly forget. Right now they would be down 8 seats without my backing them in the last Election,” Trump tweeted. “RINO John Thune, ‘Mitch’s boy’, should just let it play out. South Dakota doesn’t like weakness. He will be primaried in 2022, political career over!!!”

Congresswoman-elect Lauren Boebert to challenge Electoral College vote – The Colorado Sun - Congresswoman-elect Lauren Boebert intends to kick off her tenure by stepping into political controversy when she arrives in Washington. The Republican who will represent the Western Slope and Pueblo when she takes office Jan. 3 announced Thursday that she will challenge the results of the presidential election won by former Vice President Joe Biden. Boebert, who asked Capitol law enforcement last month about carrying her Glock on Capitol grounds, said she will object to the results of the Electoral College. In a news release Thursday, the 34-year-old from Rifle repeated claims about voter fraud and technical issues with voting machines — accusations perpetuated by President Donald Trump without evidence. “The American people deserve secure and fair elections,” Boebert said. “Unfortunately, the 2020 election was neither of those things.”The Electoral College voted Dec. 14, giving Biden 306 votes versus 232 for Trump. The U.S. House and Senate are scheduled to vote on confirming those results Jan. 6.Boebert would not be the first to object to the certification of Electoral College votes. Objections from members of Congress have occurred three times since 2001, according to Boebert’s news release. In the last few days, several other House Republicans have indicated they would challenge this year’s Electoral College tally.Boebert repeated unfounded claims that ballots were fraudulent or not properly counted in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Michigan — all states won by Biden.  “Several states removed voter safeguards during the 2020 elections that violated provisions in their respective state constitutions and the United States Constitution,” she said, according to her news release. “As a Representative sworn to defend the U.S. Constitution, it is my responsibility to object to the Electoral College results that were recorded under these circumstances.” Trump and his allies have lost more than 40 challenges to the presidential election in various courts across the country. Earlier this month, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a claim from Pennsylvania Republicans seeking to overturn the election in that state, issuing a one-sentence ruling with no dissenting opinion.  Boebert will represent the state’s 3rd Congressional District after beating incumbent Scott Tipton in the Republican primary and Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush in November.

Trump pardons ex-campaign aide, Blackwater contractors and disgraced lawmakers - Donald Trump approved a wave of pre-Christmas pardons, granting clemency to a former campaign aide caught up in the Russia investigation, disgraced Republican lawmakers and several contractors convicted in a massacre in Iraq. The White House announced on Tuesday Trump has granted full pardons to 15 people and commuted all or part of the sentences of five others. The beneficiaries include George Papadopoulos, a former campaign aide who pleaded guilty to lying to federal officials as part of the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election, and Alex van der Zwaan, who pleaded guilty to a similar charge in the Russia investigation and is the son-in-law of the Russian billionaire German Khan. The three former Republican US representatives who were pardoned or had their sentences commuted on Tuesday were Chris Collins of New York, Duncan Hunter of California and Steve Stockman of Texas. Collins, 70, had been the first sitting member of Congress to endorse Trump’s candidacy in 2016 and was a strong defender of the president. He pleaded guilty to conspiring to commit securities fraud and making false statements to the FBI and received a full pardon. Hunter, 44, pleaded guilty in 2019 to conspiring to convert campaign funds for personal use and received a full pardon. Stockman, 64, was convicted in 2018 of misuse of charitable funds and had his sentence commuted after serving two of 10 years. Also pardoned were Nicholas Slatten, Paul Slough, Evan Liberty and Dustin Heard, former contractors at Blackwater Worldwide who were serving lengthy prison terms in connection with the killings of civilians in a 2007 massacre in Baghdad. Among those killed by the Blackwater contractors were children, including a nine-year-old, and a mother who was clutching an infant. Two former border patrol agents were also among those pardoned. Ignacio Ramos and Jose Compean were found guilty of crimes related to shooting an unarmed man who was smuggling marijuana in 2005. George W Bush commuted their sentences in 2009, but did not grant a full pardon.

Trump pardons Blackwater contractors jailed for massacre of Iraq civilians -President Donald Trump has pardoned four Blackwater security guards who were given lengthy prison sentences for killing 14 civilians in Baghdad in 2007, a massacre that caused international uproar over the use of private contractors in war zones. The four – Paul Slough, Evan Liberty, Dustin Heard and Nicholas Slatten – were part of an armoured convoy that opened fire indiscriminately with machine-guns and grenade launchers on a crowd of unarmed people in the Iraqi capital. Known as the Nisour Square massacre, the slaughter was seen as a low point in the conflict in Iraq. In 2014, Slough, Liberty and Heard were found guilty of 13 charges of voluntary manslaughter and 17 charges of attempted manslaughter, while Slatten, the team’s sniper who was the first to open fire, was convicted of first-degree murder. Slatten was sentenced to life; Slough, Liberty and Heard got 30 years each. An initial prosecution was thrown out by a federal judge – sparking outrage in Iraq –but the then vice president, Joe Biden, promised to pursue a fresh prosecution, which was backed by judges. At the sentencing, the US attorney’s office said in a statement: “The sheer amount of unnecessary human loss and suffering attributable to the defendants’ criminal conduct on September 16, 2007, is staggering.” The pardons reflected Trump’s apparent willingness to give the benefit of doubt to American service personnel and contractors when it comes to acts of violence against civilians in war zones. In November last year, he pardoned a former US Army commando who was set to stand trial in the killing of a suspected Afghan bomb-maker, and a former Army lieutenant convicted of murder for ordering his men to fire upon three Afghans.Prosecutors asserted the heavily armed “Raven 23” Blackwater convoy launched an unprovoked attack using sniper fire, machine guns and grenade launchers. The US government said in a memorandum filed after the sentencing: “None of the victims was an insurgent, or posed any threat to the Raven 23 convoy”. The memorandum also contained quotations from relatives of the dead, including Mohammad Kinani, whose nine-year-old son Ali was killed. “That day changed my life forever. That day destroyed me completely,” Kinani said. FBI investigators who visited the scene in the following days described it as the “My Lai massacre of Iraq” – a reference to the infamous slaughter of civilian villagers by US troops during the Vietnam war – in which only one soldier was convicted.

Trump grants more pardons, including for Paul Manafort, Roger Stone and Charles Kushner – CBS --President Trump announced 26 new pardons Wednesday, including for allies Paul Manafort and Roger Stone, as well as Jared Kushner's father, Charles Kushner. Mr. Trump granted 15 pardons the day before. Manafort, a former Trump campaign manager, was sentenced to 7-and-a-half years in federal prison for convictions related to former special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation. Manafort was released from prison in March to serve his sentence from home due to COVID-19.  Mr. Trump had already commuted the sentence of Stone, a longtime friend, in July. Stone was convicted of seven felony counts stemming from Mueller's investigation, including lying to investigators and witness tampering.Kushner was convicted of witness tampering, tax evasion and illegal campaign contributions back in 2005. Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump's son-in-law, has worked in the White House since the beginning of Mr. Trump's presidency, and has been one of the president's most influential and long-serving aides. The case against Charles Kushner was prosecuted by former New Jersey Governor and Trump ally Chris Christie.The pardon announcement comes as the president arrives in Florida for his Christmas vacation, after vetoing the National Defense Authorization Act and threatening not to sign the stimulus package that would grant relief for millions of Americans. Mr. Trump pardoned other allies and former Republican members of Congress earlier this week.  Although presidential pardon powers are broad, they are generally intended to be granted to those who have atoned for their transgressions, expressed remorse for their actions, and often served society in some way. That is not the case with most of the recent pardons of the president's allies. Andrew Weissmann, a senior prosecutor in Robert Mueller's special counsel investigation, blasted the president for the move on Twitter.  "The pardons from this President are what you would expect to get if you gave the pardon power to a mob boss," he wrote. The president even received harsh criticism from some Republicans.  "This is rotten to the core," said Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse in a six-word statement.

Trump Pardons Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, Charles Kushner In Another Pardoning Spree - President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced that he’s granted yet another spate of pardons to 26 people, including his friend and confidant Roger Stone, former campaign chairman Paul Manafort and Charles Kushner, father of Trump’s son-in-law, Jared. Trump also gave sentence commutations to three people. The move comes just a day after the president announced his decision to pardon or commute the sentences of 20 people, including three corrupt former Republican congressmen, two subjects of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation and four Blackwater security guards who were involved in the 2007 killings of Iraqi civilians.In a Wednesday statement, the White House said Stone and Manafort ― both of whom were indicted in the Mueller probe as part of his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election ― had been victims of “perhaps the greatest witch hunt in American history.” Stone was sentenced in February to 40 months in prison for multiple felonies, including witness tampering, lying to Congress and obstructing the House investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia in 2016.Trump commuted Stone’s sentence in July ― prompting a harsh rebuke from Mueller.  “Stone was prosecuted and convicted because he committed federal crimes. He remains a convicted felon, and rightly so,” the special counsel wrote in an op-ed at the time. Manafort was convicted of eight charges in August 2018, including tax and bank fraud. He reached a plea deal a month later with Mueller’s team, pleading guilty to two counts ― one of conspiracy against the U.S. and another of conspiracy to obstruct justice. He was later sentenced to a total of 7½ years behind bars.  Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, skewered Trump’s decision to pardon Manafort, calling the president “lawless until the bitter end.”

Will Trump Pardon Himself? Why the Hell Not? - Jerri-Lynn Scofield - With the countdown to January 20, 2021 proceeding apace, we’ve reached one of the seamier windows familiar to veteran observers of U.S. politics. Who will Trump pardon? Aside from whether he might pardon himself – an issue that would break new legal ground, but not particularly novel or interesting territory – the moves Trump seems to be considering are not any more sleazy than those Bill Clinton, for example, has already taken. Much recent press paints Trump’s pardon machinations as somehow unique and beyond the pale. Other than the self-pardon issue – exhumation of which I suggest is attractive to the same type of intellect who thinks that you should not, I repeat NOT have voted for yourself for student council president back in junior high school.  He’s almost certain to act to protect various loyalists and hangers on – Rudy Giuliani, anyone? – there is also the wild card possibility that he might do the right thing and pardon Julian Assange.  A couple of points, the U.S. Constitution’s pardon power, at least for federal offenses – is virtually absolute. Permit me to quote from a 2016 post, Pardon Power: The Obamamometer’s Options: The United States Constitution says that the President “shall have power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, except in cases of impeachment.” So allow me to summarize the salient points.  The President’s pardoning power is absolute.  Pardoning decisions are not subject to judicial review, nor can any individual pardon be overturned by an act of Congress. The pardoning power’s also unlimited as to offenses against the United States, so in theory, at least as a matter of law, a President could pardon someone for committing any offense against the United States (I leave to one side the question of whether such an action would be politically possible).  A President could also, at least in theory, pardon him- or herself for anything except in cases of impeachment. It’s not necessary for someone to be charged or convicted of a crime against of the United States for the President to pardon that person.  The most famous example of a President granting a pardon in a case where no indictment had been brought is President Gerald Ford’s September 1974 pardon of Richard Nixon shortly after he resigned the office of President….  Now that self pardon seems fully on the table, a recent post by Jonathan Turley, spells out some key controversies. Before summarizing some of Turley’s post, I note that I expect Trump to roll the dice and assume he can pardon himself – knowing that the decision as to whether he’s right will probably be made by judges he saw successfully confirmed. One of Trump’s greatest successes was reshaping membership of the Federal courts, from the three Supreme Court Justices he confirmed, down through numerous federal and circuit court judges he saw seated.

Deutsche Bank says Trump’s personal banker has resigned - Deutsche Bank said Rosemary Vrablic, the longtime banker of President Trump, has resigned. Her resignation and that of colleague Dominic Scalzi will take effect at year-end, according to an emailed statement Tuesday from bank spokesman Dan Hunter. The New York Times reported earlier on her departure. Vrablic, who worked in the private banking division, helped manage Trump’s relationship with the bank as the German lender lent hundreds of millions of dollars of loans to Trump’s company over a number of years. That relationship subjected Deutsche Bank to pressure from lawmakers and prosecutors for information during Trump’s presidency. Deutsche Bank told the Times in August that it was reviewing a real estate deal between Vrablic and Scalzi and a company part-owned by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law. Vrablic joined Deutsche Bank in 2006 after stints at other companies, including Bank of America. Her other clients have included Herbert Simon, owner of the Indiana Pacers basketball team.

Fed gives banks green light to resume share buybacks - The US Federal Reserve has given major banks the go-ahead to resume share buybacks starting in the first quarter of next year, signalling a victory for them in what has been a public campaign against restrictions imposed in June. The Fed decision was made after “stress tests” conducted on the major banks showed they could withstand a major downturn in the economy. It had been widely expected that the banks would pass the tests. But it had been thought that with the US continuing to report record COVID-19 infections and deaths and consequently a highly uncertain outlook for the US economy, the Fed would maintain its restrictions. “Passing [the stress tests] was expected; the ability to buy back stock, within limits, was hoped for but not expected,” Announcing the stress test results, Fed Vice-Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles said the banking system had been a “source of strength” during the past year and the stress tests confirmed that large banks could continue to lend “even during a sharply adverse turn in the economy.” The only dissenting voice among Fed governors was that of Lael Brainard. She said that for several large banks the projected losses under the tests took them “very close to the minimum requirement.” “Prudence would call for more modest payouts to preserve lending to households and borrowers during an exceptionally challenging winter.” The reaction to the decision was immediate. Within minutes of the Fed announcement, JP Morgan Chase announced that its board had approved up to $30 billion in share buybacks, with the timing and extent of the purchases subject to “various considerations.” Morgan Stanley said that its board had authorised up to $10 billion of repurchases in 2021, starting in the first quarter. Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America also said they intended to resume share buybacks. JP Morgan shares rose 5.3 percent, Goldman Sachs 4.4 percent and Wells Fargo 3.5 percent. The decision is another expression of how the financial system operates as an institutionalised mechanism for siphoning wealth to the upper strata in the midst of the worst economic recession in the past-war period. As a result of the ultra-cheap monetary policies pursued by the Fed, above all the injection of trillions of dollars into the Treasury bond market, the banks have been able cash in through market trading. Back in October, JP Morgan Chase reported profits of $9.44 billion, or $292 per share – well above market expectations – and an increase on the profit of $9.08 billion for the corresponding quarter last year.. Now these profits, reaped from the largesse of the Fed, will now be distributed to wealthy individuals as well as investment funds that own bank shares. The effect of the share buybacks is to lift the price of the remaining shares, enabling their owners to reaize a capital gain.

Banks can repurchase shares again. Will they?  -The nation’s largest banks are once again permitted to repurchase shares of their own stock. Now the question is, which banks will resume buybacks and when? As of midday Monday, just a handful of the 34 banks subject to the Federal Reserve’s six-month freeze on buybacks had made public statements about their plans to repurchase shares in coming months. JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank by assets, provided the most details, saying it would commence a $30 billion buyback plan during the first quarter. The timing of the repurchases and the exact amount to be repurchased will be subject to “various considerations.” “Our highest priority and best use of capital continues to be supporting our clients and driving an inclusive economic recovery,” JPMorgan Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said in a news release. “We will continue to maintain a fortress balance sheet that allows us to safely deploy capital by investing in and growing our business, supporting consumers and businesses, paying a sustainable dividend and returning any remaining excess capital to shareholders.” Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon and State Street said they intend to start buybacks in the first quarter, but did not say how many shares they will buy. Since the end of June, the 34 banks that are subject to the Fed’s stress tests have been unable to repurchase shares or increase dividend payments to shareholders beyond the levels paid out in the second quarter of this year. The Fed put the limits in place to ensure banks would have enough capital on hand to manage economic challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic. But the Fed said Friday that banks are free to resume repurchases after it conducted the first-ever “midcycle” stress tests, a supplemental exercise that incorporated “severely adverse” and “alternative adverse” scenarios that gauged banks’ ability to withstand some of the economic uncertainties related to the pandemic. The results of those tests were released Friday and showed that all 34 banks would have sufficient capital to endure a severe pandemic-related downturn, though some would fare better than others. The Fed said that while banks can resume buybacks, the amount will be limited to income earned this past year. Dividend payouts, meanwhile, remain capped at second-quarter levels. Industry observers say the Fed’s decision to loosen restrictions on buybacks was unexpected.

US Federal Reserve backstops rising corporate debt mountain - As the WSWS noted, there was one notable feature of the passage of the $900 billion relief bill through the US Congress earlier this week that demonstrated the absolute loyalty of the Democrats to the Wall Street financial oligarchy. After abandoning aid for cash-strapped cities and states to provide services and agreeing to a grossly inadequate one-time payment of $600 to most working people, they rose up in arms against at attempt to restrict operations by the Fed to bolster major companies. Republican Senator Pat Toomey moved to prevent the Fed reviving an operation in which it receives money from the US Treasury, which it then leverages to make ultra-cheap loans to businesses and to buy corporate debt. The Fed had raised objections when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called for the winding down of the program in November warning that it could impede its operations to sustain Wall Street and other financial markets. The importance of that support, which was lifted to new heights following the market freeze in mid-March, has been underscored by data on the level of corporate borrowing this year compiled by the Bank of America and reported in the Financial Times earlier in the week. US companies have borrowed a record $2.5 trillion in the bond market this year. This has meant that leverage—the ratio between debt and earnings—for investment grade companies has gone to new heights after reaching record levels in 2019. The actions taken by the Fed in response to the March crisis have provided crucial support for these operations. The Fed took the unprecedented decision to buy investment-grade corporate bonds as well as buying exchange traded funds, including those that tracked riskier assets. Unlike the purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, which form the backbone of the Fed’s market intervention—currently running at $120 billion a month more than $1.4 trillion a year—the move into corporate bond purchases involved backing from the US Treasury, which the Toomey measure sought to restrict in the future. Initially debt was raised to cover the loss of income due to the pandemic. But what the Financial Times called “the largest corporate borrowing spree on record” has developed as companies have used the ultra-low interest rates facilitated by the Fed to build up their cash holdings in order to take advantage of any favourable buying operations. The significance of the Fed’s intervention into the corporate debt market, which the Democrats were so desperate to ensure continued unimpeded, was underscored by Jonny Fine, the USA head of debt syndicate at Goldman Sachs. He described it as “the most important piece of central bank policymaking I have seen in my career.”

OCC’s preemption letter opens new front in battle with states - With less than a month left in the Trump administration, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has rankled consumer advocates and state officials with a more aggressive policy on when national banks can preempt state consumer protection laws. The OCC issued an interpretive letter on Dec. 18 that critics say attempts to sidestep restrictions, included in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, on the agency’s preemption powers. “This is exactly the kind of overreach that Congress was trying to put an end to,” Christopher Odinet, a law professor at the University of Iowa College of Law, said of the OCC letter. The letter attempts to resolve a debate over how much Dodd-Frank actually limited the OCC’s power to spare national banks and their partners from a patchwork of state laws. “Under its current leadership, the OCC has demonstrated that it has failed to learn the lessons of the last financial crisis,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a statement. Bloomberg NewsDodd-Frank specified scenarios under which federal law can preempt state law, including when a state law discriminates against national banks, or “significantly interferes with” a national bank’s powers. The 2010 financial regulatory overhaul said the OCC can make a “preemption determination” in accordance with the so-called Barnett standard on a “case-by-case” basis. The OCC claimed in the letter that additional procedural requirements under Dodd-Frank are limited only to regulations or orders that explicitly conclude state consumer laws are preempted. This interpretation would give a pass to other actions by the agency that do not include a "preemption determination." “An OCC action that has only indirect or incidental effects on a state consumer financial law is not a preemption determination,” the agency said in its letter. That interpretation could have wide-ranging implications as the OCC under acting Comptroller Brian Brooks remains at odds with state regulators and attorneys general over the bounds of the federal regulator’s powers relative to states. The OCC has faced legal challenges to its “true lender” rule finalized in October, which aims to clarify legal issues in partnerships between banks and nonbanks. Advocates and some state AGs claim the rule enables unregulated lenders to engage in so-called rent-a-bank schemes. Consumer groups and some state AGs say the preemption letter is another form of overreach by the OCC and should be rescinded by whomever President-elect Joe Biden installs at the agency. “Under its current leadership, the OCC has demonstrated that it has failed to learn the lessons of the last financial crisis,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a statement. “Its recent letter makes every attempt to evade the limits Congress placed on its authority to preempt state law, and it would give the agency wide latitude to open up consumers and our economy to predators. We will continue to fight any attempt to water down New York’s consumer protections.” 

Wells Fargo set to be freed from AML consent order - Wells Fargo is on the verge of being freed from a 2015 enforcement action tied to violations of its controls for combating money laundering. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency recently informed Wells that it’s been found to have satisfied the requirements of the five-year-old consent order, according to two sources close to the situation. Notifying the bank is a procedural step that precedes the formal termination of a regulatory order. The bank’s release from the order would mark progress in CEO Charlie Scharf's efforts to resolve its sprawling regulatory problems. Still, the 2015 consent order is an illustration of how some of the San Francisco bank’s regulatory problems have spawned more such trouble. Wells Fargo said in a securities filing last month that it was continuing to respond to inquiries from various federal agencies in connection with another matter that grew out of its efforts to comply with the anti-money-laundering order. Spokespeople for the OCC and Wells Fargo declined to comment. Scharf, who took over as Wells Fargo’s CEO in October 2019, has said that meeting regulatory requirements is the firm’s top priority. The 2015 enforcement action is one of 11 public consent orders under which the $1.9 trillion-asset bank has been operating. That number had been 12, but a 2015 consent order with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau over alleged kickbacks in the mortgage business expired earlier this year. Referring to the bank’s regulatory woes, Scharf said earlier this month at an investor conference, “I think it took a while for people to really digest what it all meant for the company, quite frankly.” Wells Fargo still faces a long road ahead. Bloomberg reported in early December that some top company executives expect an asset cap imposed by the Federal Reserve in 2018 to remain in place until at least late 2021, while key Fed officials foresee an even longer timeline.

Credit Suisse flagged for anti-money-laundering shortcomings The Federal Reserve and the New York State Department of Financial Services have ordered Credit Suisse to repair its anti-money laundering program after shortcomings were found in the Swiss company’s U.S. operation, according to an enforcement action released Tuesday. Examiners with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York uncovered problems at Credit Suisse’s New York branch last year. The bank has 90 days to submit a plan for overhauling how suspicious activity is monitored, according to the agreement reached with the agencies. Though no fine is being levied, the deal does not prevent federal or state agencies from taking further action. The announcement comes at a time anti-money-laundering reforms are in the spotlight. Congress approved changes earlier this month meant to crack down on anonymous shell companies. Credit Suisse said in a statement Tuesday that an “extensive enhancement plan” is already being implemented. The bank said that the improvements “will comply with every provision of the written agreement in a timely and thorough manner.” The plan must improve on oversight of a Credit Suisse risk management subsidiary that was running its anti-money-laundering program, including a requirement that “appropriate escalation processes” are put in place, according to the agreement. The plan must also set “clearly defined parameters regarding acceptable risks associated with specific types of customers,” according to the agreement. The bank is also required to assign risk ratings to specific customers based on the kinds of accounts they have, their location and activity with the bank, the agreement said.

Bankers hope shell-company reforms are prelude to broader AML overhaul — Banks are close to having a key anti-money-laundering burden eliminated, but their push to ease AML rules seen as costly and time-consuming is far from over.The industry cheered Congress’s veto-proof passage of a measure requiring companies to disclose their true owners to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. Shifting that tedious task to companies themselves will release banks from having to report customers' beneficial owners to Fincen.Assuming the bill becomes law, the focus will shift to implementation and requirements in the legislation that officials monitor banks' AML obligations that remain unchanged. Those include reporting of suspicious activity reports and currency transaction reports. (The beneficial ownership provision was included in a defense spending bill that President Trump has threatened to veto, but Congress has enough votes to override the veto.)  Industry representatives say they have not given up urging Congress to increase the minimum transaction thresholds for SARs and CTRs, an idea that lawmakers tossed aside in the defense spending package. “As we look forward, the bill took a good first step in the sense of studying and reviewing the CTR and SAR thresholds,” said Chip Bartlett, vice president of congressional affairs at the Consumer Bankers Association. “As we continue to advance this dialogue and the conversation, those thresholds need to be addressed and updated."  Some are also holding out hope that banks could receive more relief through the implementation process. The bill requires Fincen to update AML rules for banks to eliminate true-owner requirements, tasks regulators with examining the current CTR and SAR thresholds to determine if they need to be changed, and requires a review of ways to improve technology and information sharing between regulators, law enforcement and financial institutions. Meanwhile, bank regulators recently issued proposals to provide exemptions from certain SAR requirements for institutions that had developed innovative technology to meet Bank Secrecy Act requirements more efficiently.

 Credit union regulator approves proposal to ease SAR exemptions - The National Credit Union Administration board approved a proposal amending the regulator’s policies regarding suspicious activity reports from credit unions. In a notation vote on Wednesday, the board unanimously approved a proposal to allow NCUA to exempt federally insured credit unions from SAR-filing requirements on a case-by-case basis, so long as the exemption is consistent with safe and sound practices and improves effectiveness and efficiency of Bank Secrecy Act reporting. In conjunction with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, NCUA will also be able to grant exemptions to credit unions “that develop innovative solutions to meet [BSA] requirements,” the agency said in a press release. The amendments are intended to reduce the regulatory burden on the institutions the agency oversees and spur innovation in the credit union space. NCUA said the changes are part of a broader effort between it, FinCEN and other federal banking regulators “to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of [BSA] compliance programs and facilitate greater innovation within the banking sector.” The proposal will be open for a 30-day comment period after publication in the Federal Register.

What bankers (mostly) like about rebooted PPP - Congress is poised to authorize a new version of the Paycheck Protection Program that checks off most of the items on bankers’ wish lists. The latest stimulus bill, which is on the cusp of passing, would allocate $285 billion in PPP funding, according to legislative summaries. It would allow existing PPP borrowers with less than 300 employees that can show a revenue decline of at least 25% to apply for a second loan of up to $2 million. The plan expands the list of eligible expenses for forgiveness to include software, cloud computing expenses and human resources and accounting costs. And it creates a simplified forgiveness application for loans of $150,000 or less that only requires borrowers to state the number of employees retained and the amount of PPP funds spent on payroll. The relief package would also let PPP borrowers claim deductions for expenses covered by their loans. Addressing a key complaint of PPP borrowers who obtained a $10,000 advance under the Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program, the new blueprint eliminates a provision that required borrowers to deduct the advance from their forgiveness amounts. "This plan looks better” than the original rollout, said John Buhrmaster, president and CEO of 1stNational Bank of Scotia in New York. Barring any last-minute changes, he said, the $603 million-asset bank is almost certain to participate in the renewed effort. It shouldn’t take long to start processing applications once the new relief package is signed into law, bankers said. “We’re ready to help our customers and community whenever a new stimulus passes,” said Jill Castilla, CEO of the $322 million-asset Citizens Bank of Edmond in Oklahoma. “We’ve been preparing to ensure we have streamlined processes for application and submission so we can focus on education and support for another round.” “The process is there, the forms are loaded, our people are educated,” Burhmaster said. “As long as funding lasts, we’re going to get the money to the businesses that need it.” Still, some bankers said they will need to take a look at the finalized package before jumping back into the program. "We look forward to understanding the program and our potential role as soon as the details are clear," said Candice Caruso, director of governement guranteed lending at the $13.8 billion-asset WSFS Financial in Wilmington, Del. The new round of PPP "will bring much needed assistance to those impacted by the pandemic as the economy recovers and the vaccine is deployed." Lenders said they expect the new funds to largely target specific industries that continue to feel the pain of shutdown orders and social distancing requirements. “There were costs that everybody incurred to pivot to this new remote way of being” during the initial phase of PPP, said Julieann Thurlow, president and CEO of the $630 million-asset Reading Cooperative Bank in Massachusetts. “Now the pain is definitely sector specific,” Thurlow added. “The hospitality industry is the sector that is being hurt the most.” “I do believe the hospitality industry needs more PPP funding,” added Todd Nagle, president and CEO of the $1.7 billion-asset IncredibleBank in Wausau, Wis.

Stimulus bill would give banks more flexibility on problem loans- A revised Paycheck Protection Program isn’t the only Christmas gift banks received in the latest stimulus bill. The $892 billion package — which was approved by Congress this week and now awaits the signature of President Trump — also includes two provisions that give banks additional flexibility in accounting for problem loans. The first postpones for another year the start date of the Current Expected Credit Losses accounting standard, which requires banks to estimate credit losses at origination. The second allows banks, for the next 12 months, to delay categorizing pandemic-related loan modifications as troubled debt restructurings. The CECL extension and the delay in loan classification were both due to end Dec. 31.   President and CEO Derrik Wynkoop of Walden Savings Bank said the ability to keep loans that have been in deferral since the early stages of the pandemic out of the troubled debt restructuring pile gives banks greater flexibility to work with borrowers who are still struggling. Roughly $11 million of loans, most tied to the food and hospitality sectors, are still in deferral, Wynkoop said. “Let’s face it. The first [stimulus bill] contemplated that we’d be on the backside of this pandemic by now and unfortunately we’re knee-deep in a second wave,” Wynkoop said. “So moving out the date gives us more tools in our toolbox to work with borrowers who are still not out of the woods. Had this not been in the latest legislation, we would have been in a situation where we would have to have some very difficult conversations beginning in the new year.” In the spring, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act provided temporary regulatory relief to financial institutions so they could focus on serving their customers during the pandemic. Among the various measures, the ability to suspend troubled debt restructuring classification was particularly helpful as it allows banks to modify or adjust customers’ loan terms and defer loan payments without counting those loans as troubled debt restructurings. For years, banks had mostly been keeping loan delinquencies at bay. But when the pandemic hit, noncurrent loans began rising, jumping $7 billion between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of this year and rising another $15.9 billion by the end of the second quarter, according to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. By the end of the third quarter, noncurrent loans had risen another $9.3 billion. Keeping those loans out of the troubled debt restructuring bucket has been crucial for banks because it means those loans don’t have to be reviewed for impairment and banks don’t have to boost loan-loss reserves to cover them. Plus, any loan classified as a troubled debt restructuring retains that classification, even if the borrower returns to normal payments.

New stimulus package clears path for increased SBA lending The new stimulus package is providing more than just emergency relief for small businesses. While the $900 billion legislation revives the Paycheck Protection Program, it also enhances key elements of the Small Business Administration’s traditional lending efforts. That could result in a major lift for lenders and borrowers when the time comes to invest in an economic recovery, industry experts said. The package authorizes $2 billion for the SBA’s 7(a), 504 and Microloan programs, while allowing the agency to waive borrower and lender fees, according to legislative summaries of the law. The SBA will be able to raise the standard guarantee on 7(a) loans to 90% from 75%, retain the size threshold for SBA Express loans at $1 million and authorize a 504 Express program to expedite approval of loans under $500,000. “We think banking and small businesses are winners from the proposed second round of fiscal stimulus,” Chris Marinac, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott, wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. “Remember, banks are mirrors of the communities they serve. An improved economy should be [a] positive.” Boosting guarantees and waiving fees helped spark a surge in SBA lending after the 2008-9 financial crisis, and Rep. Nydia Velazquez, a Democrat from New York who chairs the House Small Business Committee, said she expects a similar result in 2021. Those changes should “go a long way to help build back better,” Velazquez said in a statement Monday. "I expect 7(a) to grow tremendously," said Chris Hurn, CEO of Fountainhead Capital, a nonbank lender in Lake Mary, Fla. "Small businesses need working capital." SBA spokeswoman Shannon Giles said Tuesday that agency officials were reviewing the text of the stimulus bill. Bankers were pleased to see other benefits included in the relief package. The stimulus package funds several months of principal and interest payments for most 7(a) and 504 loans, depending on when the loans were originated, as well as a borrower’s size and financial circumstances. In all cases, the monthly payments are capped at $9,000. “I was really grateful to see the … inclusion of additional SBA payment assistance,” said Jill Castilla, CEO of the $322 million-asset Citizens Bank of Edmond in Oklahoma. Similar relief in the original stimulus package “likely saved thousands of small businesses throughout the country,” she said.

 N.Y. law requires nonbanks to disclose loan terms to small businesses - New York has passed a law requiring nonbank lenders to provide greater transparency around the credit they extend to small-business customers. Signed by Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Wednesday, the new law mandates that fintech lenders and other nonbanks disclose annual percentage rates and other costs to the borrower upfront. The law is intended to make it easier for small-business borrowers to compare multiple offers, amid complaints that the fine print is often hard to understand or misleading. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, signed the New York State Small Business Truth in Lending Act into law late Wednesday. BloombergSuch disclosures are commonplace in consumer lending, but New York is just the second state in the nation to require lenders to clearly disclose terms to borrowers seeking small-business loans. “A lack of uniform disclosures has led to a confusing and complex environment for business owners accessing commercial financing,” the bill’s author, Assemblyman Ken Zebrowski, a Democrat, said in a statement to American Banker. “This legislation will provide clarity through a simple and easily understood disclosure that provides information on the true costs and hidden fees of an offer. A simple and understandable disclosure will level the playing field and ensure business owners are making an informed decision that is best for their business.” The New York State Small Business Truth in Lending Act covers various types of small-business financing that became popular in the wake of the Great Recession, after many banks scaled back their lending to small businesses. The bill has garnered broad support among small-business advocates and industry groups alike. The Innovative Lending Platform Association, whose members include fintechs like Kabbage, OnDeck and Funding Circle, backed the bill. The Responsible Business Lending Coalition, which also supported the measure, estimated that it would save small-business borrowers between $369 million and $1.76 billion annually.

Lael Brainard: Strengthening the financial system to meet the challenge of climate change -Speech by Ms Lael Brainard, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at "The Financial System & Climate Change: A Regulatory Imperative", hosted by the Center for American Progress, Washington DC, 18 December 2020.

 Margin Debt and the Market: Up 9.5% in November, Record High - The New York Stock Exchange previously published end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, including historical data going back to 1959. Because of NYSE's suspension of publication, we have turned to FINRA to continue our analysis. The figures differ in their inclusion of firms. For data through January 2010, debit balances were derived by adding NYSE debit balances in margin accounts to FINRA debit balances in customers' cash and margin accounts and credit balances were derived by adding NYSE free credit balances in cash and margin accounts to FINRA free and other credit balances in customers' securities accounts. For data after January 2010, "As of February 2010, data are collected pursuant to FINRA Rule 4521 and are aggregated across all member firms, regardless of whether the firm was designated to NASD or the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before the consolidation of NASD and the member firm regulation operations of NYSE Regulation in July 2007 that created FINRA," (FINRA statistics definition,FINRA website). As a result of this change, the debt data is higher than the NYSE data. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter. The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today's dollar using the Consumer Price Index as the deflator. At the 1997 start date, we were well into the Boomer Bull Market that began in 1982 and approaching the start of the Tech Bubble that shaped investor sentiment during the second half of the decade. The astonishing surge in leverage in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P 500 hit its all-time daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak. Debt hit a trough in February 2009, a month before the March market bottom. It then began another major cycle of increases. FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through November. The latest debt level is up 9.53% month-over-month and is at a record high.

Bloomberg News Attempts to Capture the “Speculative Frenzy” of Today’s Markets; Here’s the Key Stuff It Missed - On Saturday, Bloomberg News attempted to outline the key components of markets gone bonkers “in this year of death, disease and economic calamity,” writing that the “Mania is laid bare in IPO surge, options boom and crypto fever.”In fairness, the nine reporters who worked on the story, none of whom received a byline but are noted at the bottom of the article, correctly compiled the observable earmarks of this bubble market. But they failed to dig into the dark underbelly of how we got here.Let’s start with the compromised Wall Street regulators in Washington. The Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Jay Clayton, bolted from his post yesterday, after previously announcing he would leave at year’s end. That’s never a good sign. This is the same man involved in a failed coup to take over the office that criminally prosecutes Wall Street crimes (or not). The SEC can only bring civil charges. Clayton had Geoffrey Berman ousted from the U.S. Attorney’s office in Manhattan to open up the position for his nomination to the post. Wall Street wanted Clayton in the post because he was Wall Street’s lawyer before coming to the SEC. (See our report SEC Nominee Has Represented 8 of the 10 Largest Wall Street Banks in Past Three Years.) The head of the federal regulator of national banks (those operating across state lines such as JPMorgan Chase’s 5,000-plus branches) is the Comptroller of the Currency. During Trump’s term as President, that position has been filled with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s former pals from One West, the foreclosure king that Mnuchin ran before raising money for Trump’s campaign and becoming Treasury Secretary. The first Comptroller under Trump was Joseph Otting, who was CEO and President of One West while Mnuchin was Chairman of the bank. Otting stepped down in May and his successor became Brian Brooks, who had been Vice Chairman of One West. This marked the first time in three decades that former bankers had run the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. One West came into being in 2009 in the midst of the last financial crisis when Mnuchin, Otting and a group of investors purchased the assets of the failed IndyMac Bank. Mnuchin was savaged during his confirmation hearing for the illegal foreclosures conducted by One West, including foreclosures against active-duty military members. Mnuchin was also responsible for picking Jerome Powell as the Chair of the Federal Reserve, as reported by Politico and subsequently confirmed by Trump himself. Both Powell and the Vice Chairman for Supervision at the Fed, Randal Quarles, got rich at Carlyle Group, a private equity fund with a string of bankruptcies and job losses. Powell will likely be remembered in the history books for putting the investment manager, BlackRock, in charge of the Fed’s corporate bond bailout program and allowing it to buy up BlackRock’s own sinking junk-bond Exchange Traded Funds as part of the program. This was occurring while BlackRock managed $25 million of Powell’s personal money. Apparently, a proven background in preying on average Americans is now a prerequisite for getting a job as a Wall Street regulator.

Ripple is being sued by the SEC --Just in time for Christmas, Ripple, the banker-bro Silicon Valley cryptocurrency start-up, says it is about to be slapped with a lawsuit from the US Securities and Exchange Commission.  The case seemingly hangs on whether the early distribution of pre-mined XRP -- the cryptocurrency created by Ripple -- constituted a securities offering, and whether XRP “stock” should have been registered accordingly. This, say XRP critics, can be argued because unlike other cryptocurrencies, XRP’s supply and distribution was centrally controlled in its early days and even now efforts taken to separate control are merely cosmetic in nature.CEO Brad Garlinghouse linked to a Fortune article, in which he is quoted as saying: It’s not just Grinch-worthy, it’s shocking . . . It’s an attack on the entire crypto industry and American innovation.It was also noted in the article that the decision by Ripple (which the news outlet calls one of most important companies in the crypto industry) to announce that it is being sued is an unusual one.This is partially true. Usually, companies under investigation -- even if they note they have been served a Wells Notice -- shy away from offering any insight into such matters until the SEC itself is prepared to announce an action. This is mostly out of fear of getting themselves into even more trouble with regulators.In 2019, however, Elon Musk turned provocation of the SEC into an art form.  His dealings with the SEC since then -- which have regularly seen him taunt the regulator on Twitter -- have opened the door to a new norm being established in terms of acceptable communications between authorities and executives with large social media followings.In trying to get ahead of the regulatory-action news curve, Garlinghouse appears to be running with that norm, or at the very least flagging he too is prepared to throw down the gauntlet to the SEC in a similar fashion. This he has done not only by revealing that the lawsuit will name him and co-founder Chris Larsen as defendants but also by publishing Ripple’s own take on matters to his legion of 279k followers. (Though how many of those followers are flesh-and-blood people is harder to determine.)And the company is making some very interesting arguments in its bid to control the narrative . . . Chief among them is that XRP has always been a digital asset with “a fully functional ecosystem and a real use case as a bridge currency that does not rely on Ripple’s efforts for its functionality or price”.

New lawsuit from states over OCC power targets Figure application -The Conference of State Bank Supervisors is escalating its multi-year fight with the Office of the Comptroller of Currency over the agency’s aim to grant charters to fintech firms. The group filed a complaint in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia against the OCC opposing the unique charter application by Figure Technologies, a San Francisco-based fintech. CSBS's complaint argues that Figure's bid to open a bank not accepting federally insured deposits is "merely a thinly veiled effort" to avoid the legal controversy surrounding the OCC's special-purpose fintech charter, which has been mired in court challenges ever since it was introduced. "Since Figure intends to carry on the banking business without obtaining FDIC insurance, Figure has applied for a Nonbank Charter," the group said in the complaint, which was filed Tuesday. The special-purpose fintech charter was first announced by the OCC in 2016, but no firm has officially applied for it. It would allow nondepository fintech companies to operate under a federal charter overseen by the OCC without the burdens of state regulation and licensing. The New York State Department of Financial Services challenged the validity of the proposed charter in court last year and won. The OCC filed an appeal in April. The CSBS says in its complaint that the OCC has gone beyond its legal authority to charter institutions that carry on the “business of banking,” which require an institution to receive deposits and obtain insurance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The group continues to maintain that states do a better job of regulating fintechs than national agencies. Figure, which currently offers home equity lines of credit and mortgage refinance loans, plans to take uninsured deposits of more than $250,000 rather than FDIC-insured deposits. Since 2018, Figure has been supervised by state regulators as a mortgage lender, consumer lender or debt collector in 49 states and the District of Columbia. Because Figure will not seek deposit insurance, the CSBS considers its charter application to be, in essence, for the fintech charter. “Now, working closely with the OCC and Acting Comptroller Brooks, Figure is on the verge of obtaining a nonbank charter that it asserts will permit it to carry on these same activities without any state licensure or regulatory oversight,” the CSBS said in its complaint. If successful, industry insiders see it as an opening for tech companies to get national bank charters from the OCC.

Prosecutors Urge Judge To Reject Ghislaine Maxwell’s $30 Million Bail Request -On Friday, prosecutors in New York urged Judge Alison Nathan to keep former Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell behind bars, and deny a recent bail proposal that totaled nearly $30 million. In a filing with the U.S. District Court in Manhattan, prosecutors said Maxwell has essentially rehashed previously rejected arguments for bail, and that she remains an “extreme flight risk” from “incredibly serious” charges, Reuters reported on Friday.“Nothing in the renewed bail application alters the analysis that led this court to conclude that the defendant ‘poses a substantial actual risk of flight,’ and that no combination of conditions could assure her appearance,” prosecutors said in their ruling. Maxwell faces up to 35 years in prison if convicted at her scheduled July 2021 trial. Maxwell’s bail application said she “vehemently maintains her innocence” against allegations she assisted Epstein in his crimes. Maxwell’s defense team was hoping to keep the details of the bond’s co-signers private, due to fears that they would be harassed by members of the public. “They are legitimately afraid if their identities become public, they will be subjected to the same relentless media scrutiny and threats that Ms. Maxwell has experienced for more than a year,” Maxwell’s attorney’s argued in a bail request. However, it was ultimately revealed that her husband, who was putting up much of the money, is tech CEO Scott Borgerson.

Dirty money- Sex and the payments industry - When Mastercard and Visa cut ties with Pornhub in December, it was abrupt but unsurprising. The banking and payments industries have had a long and conflicted history with adult content.In some cases, the payments industry is supportive of adult content, as long as it is legal and the risks are known. In other cases, the payments industry has aided law enforcement — or acted preemptively — to cut off the flow of cash for companies that may expose their banks to legal repercussions.And in still other cases, the relationships between payment companies and the sex trade were spontaneous and unexpected.Mastercard and Visa's prompt shunning of Pornhub illustrates just how delicate the mainstream payments industry's ties to adult entertainment can be.After a New York Times story accused Pornhub of hosting child abuse and nonconsensual videos, the card brands investigated on their own — and didn't like what they saw.“Our investigation over the past several days has confirmed violations of our standards prohibiting unlawful content on their site,” Mastercard said in a statement. “We instructed the financial institutions that connect the site to our network to terminate acceptance.”And while Pornhub acted swiftly to protest the card brands' decision, it also took drastic action of its own. It enacted a blanket rule that if a video's uploader wasn't verified to Pornhub, the video would be taken down — a move that cut Pornub's video count from 13.5 million to 3 million, CNN reported. Mastercard and Visa's prompt shunning of Pornhub illustrates just how delicate the mainstream payments industry's ties to adult entertainment can be.After a New York Times story accused Pornhub of hosting child abuse and nonconsensual videos, the card brands investigated on their own — and didn't like what they saw.  “Our investigation over the past several days has confirmed violations of our standards prohibiting unlawful content on their site,” Mastercard said in a statement. “We instructed the financial institutions that connect the site to our network to terminate acceptance.”And while Pornhub acted swiftly to protest the card brands' decision, it also took drastic action of its own. It enacted a blanket rule that if a video's uploader wasn't verified to Pornhub, the video would be taken down — a move that cut Pornub's video count from 13.5 million to 3 million, CNN reported.

CFPB orders Discover to pay $35 million for student lending mishaps — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced a consent order Tuesday against Discover Bank and two of its affiliates related to student loan servicing practices. The order — issued against the bank, The Student Loan Corp. and Discover Products Inc. — said Discover's migration to a new student loan servicing platform resulted in problems that harmed consumers and led to several violations of a 2015 enforcement action. The bank must pay $10 million in consumer redress and a $25 million civil penalty as a result of the most recent order. The CFPB said Discover Bank withdrew payments from more than 17,000 consumer accounts without proper validation and canceled payments for more than 14,000 consumers without notifying them. The agency also found that Discover misrepresented to more than 100,000 consumers the minimum payments that they owed, and misrepresented to more than 8,000 consumers the amounts of interest paid, according to the order. The alleged practices violated a 2015 consent order that had cited Discover for misstating the minimum amounts due on billing statements, among other things. At the time, Discover was ordered to refund $16 million to consumers, pay a penalty, and fix servicing and debt collection practices found to have violated the law. In the order released Tuesday, the bureau said the migration to a new servicing platform "resulted in hundreds of Migration Issues that harmed tens of thousands of consumers and resulted in numerous Consent Order Violations." The CFPB alleged that Discover was aware of the migration issues during a 2017 exam but was not fully upfront with agency officials about potential violations of the previous order. "Although Respondent was aware of potential Consent Order Violations arising from the Migration while Bureau examiners were on-site examining Respondent’s compliance with the 2015 Consent Order, Respondent did not report these violations to the Bureau at that time," Tuesday's order said. A spokesperson for Discover acknowledged in an email that the servicing migration had led to problems, but said that many of the issues have been resolved. "Discover migrated its student loan portfolios from two legacy servicing systems to a new platform in 2017-2018," the spokesperson said. "While the migration resulted in the development of new and helpful features for consumers and enhancements to the customer experience, it also unfortunately caused issues we did not anticipate. We regret that unanticipated migration issues negatively impacted some customers. Many of the issues have been resolved and we are committed to complying fully with the consent order." Aside from the penalties, the CFPB’s consent order prohibits Discover from making any misrepresentations about minimum payments and about the amount of interest consumers paid, among other things. The bank is also prohibited from withdrawing loan payments from consumers’ bank accounts in amounts or at times not authorized by consumers. 

CFPB fines Santander Consumer $4.7M for fair-lending violations - Santander Consumer will pay $4.7 million to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to address charges that it knowingly supplied inaccurate consumer credit data to the three major credit reporting agencies. By furnishing consumer data containing “systemic errors,” such as the wrong date an account first became delinquent, the Dallas-based auto lender violated the Fair Credit Reporting Act, the agency said Tuesday. According to a consent order, between June 2016 and August 2019, Santander sent incorrect information on millions of accounts to the credit bureaus, in some cases reporting files as delinquent when they weren’t. Moreover, the bureau said the Santander knew about some of these errors at least as early as September 2016 and failed to correct them. The agency also said many of the errors were “internally inconsistent” and should have been “readily apparent” to the lender. In addition to the financial penalty, Santander must fix the errors the CFPB identified and improve its internal policies and procedures concerning the information it reports to the credit bureaus. It must also submit a detailed compliance plan to the agency within 45 days. In an email, a Santander Consumer spokeswoman said, “We are pleased to resolve this legacy issue and put this matter behind us.” Earlier this year, the auto lender paid $65 million, and forgave hundreds of millions more in loans, to settle charges by attorneys general for 33 states and the District Columbia that it unnecessarily exposed borrowers to loans with a high risk of default. The CFPB’s consent order concerns the way Santander Consumer reports information to the three major credit bureaus. When a lender reports a consumer’s account data to one of the credit bureaus, it must include the date it pulled the information so the credit bureaus can update the information accordingly. It also must include the date the account first became delinquent. This helps the credit bureau to keep its files current and to drop negative information from a consumer’s credit file after seven years, in accordance with the FCRA. In over 23 million instances, or 35% of accounts, that Santander reported to the credit bureaus during that time, the CFPB said, it gave the same date for both of those pieces of information. Santander Consumer also reported the bulk of those accounts as current, when a first delinquency date typically shouldn’t be reported for a current account, the consent order said. In some other instances, the agency said that Santander reported inconsistent information about whether accounts were open or closed and whether the borrower was carrying a balance or paid in full. The CFPB said in its consent order that in spite of receiving “multiple error reports” from one of the credit bureaus, Santander did not promptly correct that information.

FHFA proposes living wills for Fannie and Freddie — The Federal Housing Finance Administration is seeking comment on a proposal to require the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to develop living wills. The proposal, which was announced Thursday, would require the GSEs to craft resolution plans similar to requirements imposed on the largest U.S. banks to map how they would be unwound in a failure. “Requiring the Enterprises to develop living wills, helps FHFA fulfill its responsibility to ensure that the failure of an Enterprise would harm neither taxpayers nor the mortgage market," FHFA Director Mark Calabria said in a press release. “The proposed rule gives FHFA a tool that supplements its existing statutory authorities to restructure a failed Enterprise so that government does not have to put the Enterprises into conservatorship again." Under the proposed rule, Fannie and Freddie must demonstrate how important business lines would be maintained to ensure continued support for mortgage finance and to stabilize the housing finance system. The GSEs would have to show how they would keep those business lines operating without “extraordinary government support.” The proposal follows a 2019 Treasury Department housing reform plan that highlighted the need for a credible resolution framework for the GSEs. The Financial Stability Oversight Council also endorsed living wills for the GSEs this year. Interested parties may comment on the proposal within 60 days of its publication in the Federal Register.

Waters, Brown urge Mnuchin to halt housing finance reforms — The top Democrats on the House and Senate banking committees urged the Trump administration to halt any plans to reform the U.S. housing finance system in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters, D-Calif., and Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, told Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in a letter Wednesday to pull the plug on any steps to overhaul Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with the pandemic still taking a toll on the economy. “Amidst this uncertainty, any significant changes to our multi-trillion dollar housing system, which affects every person in this country, could further damage the economy,” wrote Waters and Brown. “Market participants have similarly raised concerns that sudden changes to the housing system could further compromise the financial stability of millions of families and the housing market both during and after the pandemic.” The letter said Mnuchin "was not forthcoming" in congressional testimony about possible changes to housing finance policy but added that "in recent media reports you have indicated you do in fact have plans you are working to set in motion." "We are concerned that some of the policy changes Treasury has previously endorsed, including restricting or eliminating guarantees for certain types of loans and other, more aggressive proposals, could threaten the stability of the $11 trillion mortgage market," Waters and Brown wrote. The letter comes as the Federal Housing Finance Agency has developed procedures intended to release the government-sponsored enterprises from conservatorship. The agency recently released a new risk-based capital plan for Fannie and Freddie. Meanwhile, both the FHFA and Treasury oversee agreements that require the two companies to sweep profits into the federal government. Waters has previously called on the incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden to halt plans to release Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship. In their letter to Mnuchin, the two lawmakers added that millions of borrowers are currently in forbearance on their mortgages because of the pandemic and that housing experts are predicting a possible “avalanche” of evictions on the horizon. Waters and Brown are requesting a briefing from Mnuchin on any actions that the Treasury Department might take in the next month that will affect the housing system.

Who Holds the $1.65 Trillion of Apartment Building Debt amid Eviction Bans and Plunging Occupancy Rates at High Rises? - Wolf Richter - You guessed it: For over half of it, taxpayers are on the hook. Time to take a look.  The other day, we discussed two luxury apartment towers whose occupancy rates had plunged into the 70% range during the Pandemic – the “New York by Gehry” in Manhattan whose mortgage had been moved to the servicer watch list, and the NEMA in San Francisco. But the mortgages on those properties were still marked as “current.”Overall, the delinquency rate for these multifamily “private label” CMBS loans – “private label” because they’re not backed by the government – has ticked up to 3.1% in November but is still relatively low compared to the blow-up during the 2009-2012 mortgage crisis when the delinquency rate reached 17% and stayed there for a year, and compared to current delinquency rates of hotel CMBS (19.7%) and mall CMBS (14.2%). More on that straight line south in a moment (delinquency data through November provided by Trepp): So for now, landlords of apartment towers in the centers of large cities, afflicted by the renters’ exodus and plunging rents, and landlords anywhere afflicted by renters not making rent payments, protected by eviction bans, are still trying to make mortgage payments on their rental properties, hoping that the surge in vacancies and non-payment of rents are short-term phenomena and that people will come back and fill those apartments and that tenants will catch up with the rent. These “private label” CMBS and other private label securitizations only hold a small portion of the total commercial mortgages backed by apartment buildings.The total amount of multifamily mortgages outstanding in Q3 was $1.65 trillion, up by $31 billion from Q2, according to the Q3 report this week by the Mortgage Bankers Association, based on data from the Fed’s Financial Accounts of the United States, the FDIC’s Quarterly Banking Profile, and Wells Fargo Securities.

• The US government: $798 billion, or 48.4% of the $1.65 trillion in apartment building debt, is backed by the federal government through Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and government agencies such as Ginnie Mae, which securitized many of these loans into CMBS, and sold them to investors. The government is on the hook for losses. And the Fed has acquired $9.3 billion of these “Agency” CMBS.
• Banks and thrifts: $478 billion or 29% of the multifamily debt is held by banks and thrifts. The Fed has pointed out in the past that some regional and smaller banks are heavily concentrated on commercial mortgages, and that for these specific banks, a downturn in commercial real estate would pose a significant risk.
• Life insurance companies hold $168 billion or 10.2% of this multifamily mortgage debt.
• State and local governments hold $108 billion or 6.5% of this debt in pension funds and the like. This ultimately also sits on the backs of taxpayers.
• Private label CMBS, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and other asset-backed securities only hold $52 billion, or 3.1% of this $1.65 trillion in apartment building debt.

The chart shows holdings by sector, red for Q3 and blue for Q2 (data from the MBA):

Congressional stimulus falls short on mortgage relief, experts say - After much deliberation, Congress landed on an agreement for the next round of coronavirus aid on Sunday. The bipartisan bill will provide $25 billion in emergency rental assistance and a round of $600 stimulus checks, in addition to pushing the eviction moratorium out by a month to Jan. 31, 2021.Following the announcement of the deal, housing and mortgage finance experts were quick to point out that the measure will not be enough to fully support the millions of Americans struggling to make housing payments. Nearly 2.8 million borrowers fell into active forbearance plans as of Dec. 15, an amount that's trended upward alongside rising COVID-19 cases. "More will be needed to prevent housing insecurity for millions of low- and moderate-income households who are managing the economic fallout of the pandemic," David Dworkin, president and CEO of the National Housing Conference, said in a press release.Dworkin, a former senior policy adviser at the Treasury Department under the Obama administration, also highlighted the need for the Treasury to fast-track regulations and directly distribute the funds to each state in order to get the money out quickly.Ellie Mae reexamined the entire underwriting process to identify a new approach that uses technology for scalable productivity gains, balanced with the...About 20.3% of borrowers who have missed mortgage payments think they'll likely face foreclosure is in the next two months, according to the latest Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey ending Dec. 7. The outlook is bleaker for renters who are behind on payments, as 48.1% of that group said eviction is likely with a two-month time frame. A 13.3% share of borrowers overall have little to no confidence in making their next mortgage payment. That number jumps to 32.7% for renters, according to the Census survey.

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in November - Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in November was 2.75%, down from 2.89% in October. Freddie's rate is up from 0.62% in November 2019. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus. This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed. Note: Fannie Mae will report for November soon. Also - for multifamily - delinquencies were at 0.16%, up from 0.14% in October, and up more than double from 0.06% in November 2019. ‘

Foreclosures drop to new all-time low in November -- In November, mortgage delinquencies fell to a coronavirus-era low point while foreclosures hit their bottommost rate ever, according to Black Knight. Loans at least 30 days late on their payment or already in foreclosure at the end of November dropped to nearly 3.56 million from 3.62 million in October. This represents the sixth straight month of declines while remaining way above the year-ago level of 2.12 million. The delinquency rate — which does not include loans in foreclosure — tumbled to 6.33% from 6.44% month-over-month while eclipsing the year-ago rate of 3.53%. Seriously delinquent borrowers — those late on their payments for 90 days or more but not yet in foreclosure — similarly declined to 2.19 million from 2.26 million but quintupled the 439,000 from November 2019. At the state level, Mississippi and Louisiana had the highest share of noncurrent mortgages for the second month in a row. They posted rates of 11.11% and 10.74%, respectively, with Hawaii following at 9.45%. Idaho again led with an improved noncurrent share of 3.45%, trailed by 4.06% in Washington and 4.19% in Colorado. The three states with the highest delinquency share also had the worst rates of serious delinquency. Mississippi's 6.58% was highest in the nation, followed closely by Louisiana's 6.51% and 5.8% in Hawaii. About 4,400 loans started the foreclosure process in November, alongside 176,000 mortgages in active foreclosure. Those fell from 4,700 and 178,000 in October and 33,500 and 248,000 the year before. November's totals are the lowest since Black Knight started tracking them in 2000. These should remain at artificially held nadirs at least through the end of January and could continue as long as CARES Act protections keep getting extended. Prepayment activity came down to 2.82% from October's all-time high of 3.17% while exactly doubling the year-ago rate of 1.46%. Prepayment rates should stay elevated as long as interest rates hover around historic lows.

Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in November -Note: Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus.From Black Knight: Black Knight: Delinquencies Improved Again in November 2020, But Nearly 2.2 Million Seriously Past-Due Mortgages Remain:
• Despite seasonal headwinds, mortgage delinquencies improved for the sixth consecutive month in November 2020, falling to 6.33% from 6.44% in the month prior
• The national delinquency rate is now down 1.5 percentage points from its peak of 7.8% in May but remains a full three percentage points (+93%) above pre-pandemic levels
• While early-stage delinquencies – borrowers one or two payments past due – have fallen back below pre-pandemic levels, seriously past-due (90+ days) mortgages remain 1.8 million above pre-pandemic levels
• Foreclosure activity remains muted as widespread moratoriums remain in place
• November’s 4,400 foreclosure starts and 176,000 loans in active foreclosure are both at their lowest levels on record since Black Knight began reporting the metrics in 2000
• Prepayments fell 11% from October’s 16-year high; however, with interest rates at record lows and refinance incentive at an all-time high, prepay activity is likely to remain elevated in the coming months
According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 1.8% in November compared to October, and increased 79% year-over-year.
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 1.6% in November and were down 30% over the last year.
Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 6.33% in November, down from 6.44% in October. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased slightly in November to 0.33%, from 0.33% in October.
The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is up 1,513,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 72,000 properties year-over-year.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 5.49%" - Note: This is as of December 13th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 5.49%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased slightly from 5.48% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.49% as of December 13, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.7 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. ... The share of loans in forbearance has stayed fairly level since early November, often with small decreases in the GSE loan share and increases for Ginnie Mae loans. That was the case last week. Additionally, forbearance requests from Ginnie Mae borrowers reached the highest level since the week ending June 14,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Additional restrictions on businesses and rising COVID-19 cases are causing a renewed increase in layoffs and other signs of slowing economic activity. These troubling trends will likely result in more homeowners seeking relief.” ...By stage, 18.78% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 78.54% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 2.69% are forbearance re-entries.  This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has generally been trending down.The MBA notes: "Weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained flat from the previous week at 0.12 percent."

NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Decreased 3.4% YoY --From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 89.8 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of December 20 The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 89.8 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by December 20 in its survey of 11.5 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.This is a 3.4 percentage point, or 392,952 household decrease from the share who paid rent through December 20, 2019 and compares to 90.3 percent that had paid by November 20, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 6th (dark color) and 20th (light color) of the month.This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties.The new disaster relief should help people make their rent payments.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications increased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 18, 2020. ... The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week and was 124 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates are closing the year at record lows. The 30-year fixed rate – at 2.86 percent – is a full percentage point below a year ago. Last week’s increase in refinance applications was driven by FHA and VA activity, while conventional refinances saw a slight decline. Overall refinance activity was 124 percent higher than in 2019, as borrowers continue to seek lower monthly payments or different loan terms,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase applications decreased for the second time in three weeks, as both conventional and government applications saw a drop-off. Despite the decline, purchase applications remained 26 percent higher than the same week a year ago, and the average loan balance reached another record high.” Added Kan, “There are still signs of relative strength in the housing market as 2020 ends. However, housing affordability will be worth monitoring next year. The lower loan size segment of the market – particularly for entry-level and first-time buyers – continues to be impacted by rapidly increasing home prices and tight inventory.” .. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) increased to 2.86 percent from 2.85 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.  The refinance index has been very volatile recently depending on rates and liquidity.But with record low rates, the index remains up significantly from last year.

FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.5% in October, Another All-Time High - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for October. Here is the opening of the press release: House prices rose nationwide in October, up 1.5 percent from the previous month, according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 10.2 percent from October 2019 to October 2020. The previously reported 1.7 percent price change for September 2020 remained unchanged. For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from September 2020 to October 2020 ranged from +0.9 percent in the West North Central and East South Central divisions to +2.1 percent in the New England division. The 12-month changes ranged from +8.4 percent in the West South Central division to +12.5 percent in the Mountain and New England divisions. “U.S. house prices rose for the fifth straight month since states re-opened their local economies," said Dr. Lynn Fisher, FHFA's Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics. “The 12-month gain of 10.2 percent in October is the highest annual appreciation observed since the 2004-2005 period. Extremely low mortgage rates and a limited supply of homes for sale continue to propel price gains. The data do not yet reflect renewals of some local and state COVID-19 restrictions." The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 6.69 million in November -- From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decrease 2.5% in November” Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 2.5% from October to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million in November. However, sales in total rose year-over-year, up 25.8% from a year ago (5.32 million in November 2019).  ...  Total housing inventory at the end of November totaled 1.28 million units, down 9.9% from October and down 22% from one year ago (1.64 million). Unsold inventory sits at an all-time low 2.3-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 2.5 months in October and down from the 3.7-month figure recorded in November 2019. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in November (6.69 million SAAR) were down 2.5% from last month, and were 25.8% above the November 2019 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.28 million in November from 1.42 million in October. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 22% year-over-year in November compared to November 2019. Months of supply decreased to 2.3 months in November (an all time low). This was close to the consensus forecast.

Comments on November Existing Home Sales - Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 6.69 million in November -- A few key points:
1) This was the highest sales rate for November since 2005. Some of the increase over the last several months was probably related to pent up demand from the shutdowns in March and April.  Other reasons include record low mortgage rates, a move away from multi-family rentals, strong second home buying (to escape the high-density cities) and favorable demographics. The delay in the buying season has pushed the seasonally adjusted number to very high levels.  For example, this number of sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) in August, would have given a 5 million Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR), as opposed to 6.7 million.   So the delay in the buying season is a factor in the headline number being so high.There are going to be some difficult comparisons in the second half of next year!
2) Inventory is very low, and was down 22% year-over-year (YoY) in November. This is the lowest level of inventory for November since at least the early 1990s.  Months-of-supply is at a record low.  Inventory will be important to watch in 2021, see: Some thoughts on Housing Inventory.  This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2019 and 2020.  Note that existing home sales picked up somewhat in the second half of 2019 as interest rates declined. Even with weak sales in April, May, and June, sales to date are up about 4% compared to the same period in 2019. The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) by month (Red dashes are 2020), and the minimum and maximum for 2005 through 2019.Sales NSA in November (492,000) were 22% above sales last year in November (404,000). This was the highest sales for November (NSA) since 2005.

New Home Sales decrease to 841,000 Annual Rate in November - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 841 thousand. The previous three months were revised down sharply.Sales of new single-family houses in November 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 841,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.0 percent below the revised October rate of 945,000, but is 20.8 percent above the November 2019 estimate of 696,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.The last five months saw the highest sales rates since 2006.   This is strong year-over-year growth. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply was increased in November to 4.1 months from 3.5 months in October.The all time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all time record low is 3.5 months, most recently in September 2020.This is at the low end of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months supply is normal)."The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 286,000. This represents a supply of 4.1 months at the current sales rate. "  Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.The inventory of completed homes for sale is low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is lower than normal.The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In November 2020 (red column), 55 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 50 thousand homes were sold in November.The all time high for November was 86 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for November was 20 thousand in 2010. This was well expectations and sales in the three previous months were revised down sharply.

 A few Comments on November New Home Sales -- New home sales for November were reported at 841,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised down sharply. Earlier: New Home Sales decrease to 841,000 Annual Rate in November.This was well below consensus expectations of 990,000, but sales were still up 20.8% from November 2019.   The last five months were the highest sales rates since 2006. Clearly low mortgages rates, low existing home supply, and low sales in March and April (due to the pandemic) have led to a strong increase in sales.  Favorable demographics (something I wrote about many times over the last decade) and a surging stock market have probably helped new home sales too.Another factor in the strong headline sales rate over the last several months was the delay in the selling season.   Usually the strongest sales a re in the March to June time frame, but this year the strongest sales months were later in the year - so the usually seasonal factors boosted sales in late Summer and Fall.This graph shows new home sales for 2019 and 2020 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).   New home sales were up 20.8% year-over-year (YoY) in November.   Year-to-date (YTD) sales are up 19.1% (This is even above my optimistic forecast for 2020!).  And on inventory: since new home sales are reported when the contract is signed - even if the home hasn't been started - new home sales are not limited by inventory (except if no lots are available).  Inventory for new home sales is important in that it means there will be more housing starts if inventory is low (like right now) - and fewer starts if inventory is too high (not now).

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 26.4% Year-over-year - From HotelNewsNow.com: STR US hotel results for week ending 19 December: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy decreased slightly from the previous week, according to the latest data from STR through 19 December. 13-19 December 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
• Occupancy: 36.8% (-26.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$85.50 (-21.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$31.45 (-42.5%)
The industry also surpassed one billion unsold room nights for the first time on record.  The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.  The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020).
Seasonally we'd expect the occupancy rate to decline into the new year.  Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate - see graph above - we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020: This suggests no improvement over the last 3 months.

 Personal Income decreased 1.1% in November, Spending decreased 0.4% -- The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income decreased $221.8 billion (1.1 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $218.0 billion (1.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $63.3 billion (0.4 percent). Real DPI decreased 1.3 percent in November and Real PCE decreased 0.4 percent. The PCE price index had no change. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index had no change . The decrease in personal income was below expectations,  and the decrease in PCE was also below expectations  The November PCE price index increased 1.1 percent year-over-year and the November PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.4 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) since January 2019 through November 2020 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.  The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Using the two-month method to estimate Q4 PCE growth, PCE was increasing at a 6.8% annual rate in Q4 2020. (using the mid-month method, PCE was  increasing at 4.0%). However, it appears the economy contracted in December - so PCE growth could be lower than 4%.

Real Disposable Income Per Capita in November - With the release of this morning's report on November Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at"Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -1.29% month-over-month change in disposable income is virtually unchanged when we adjust for inflation at -1.30%. This is a decrease from last month's 0.79% nominal and 0.81% real decreases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 3.78% nominal and 2.63% real. Post-recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of the CARES Act and the COVID pandemic, a major spike is seen in April 2020. The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by the CARES Act stimulus.  The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Do you recall what you were doing on New Year's Eve at the turn of the millennium? Nominal disposable income is up 104% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 41.2%.

 Michigan Consumer Sentiment: December Final Reflects Cautionary Motives: The December Final came in at 80.7, up 3.8 from the November Final. Investing.com had forecast 81.3. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 6.4 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 5.3 percent below the geometric mean. Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, makes the following comments: The Sentiment Index slipped in late December, although it remained higher than last month despite the ongoing surge in covid infections and deaths. The improvement was due to a large and rapid partisan shift, with Democrats becoming much more positive and Republicans much more negative. The largest change was in long term business prospects, as twice as many Democrats as three months ago expected a continuous expansion over the next five years (54% up from 27%), while that same favorable expectation was nearly cut in half among Republicans (32% down from 60%). The pandemic has had a much greater relative impact on assessments of the overall economy than on assessments of consumers' current personal financial situations. Trends in how consumers evaluate their own finances and how they assess changes in the national economy have followed a close association over the past half century (see the chart). Since the start of the pandemic, however, a huge divide has grown across households in how they assess their own personal finances: the finances of those that continue to be employed and working at home have remained positive while those who have lost jobs and incomes have been quite negative. Growing inequalities have also been due to rising home and stock prices. In contrast, nearly everyone has reported negative assessments of current conditions in the national economy. This gap signifies the pandemic nature of the current downturn; the second largest gap occurred in the downturn surrounding 9/11. While the rollout of the vaccine has been greeted as the beginning of the end, the end of the pandemic is still on the distant horizon in terms of a return to normalcy for consumer behavior, even among the most favored households. Precautionary motives will continue to shape both economic and personal behavior. [More...] See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. Recessions and real GDP are included to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.

 Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 0.9% in November - The Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders released today gives us a first look at the latest durable goods numbers. Here is the Bureau's summary on new orders: New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $2.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $244.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up seven consecutive months, followed a 1.8 percent October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Transportation equipment, up six of the last seven months, led the increase, $1.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $78.8 billion.Download full PDFThe latest new orders number at 0.9% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com 0.7% estimate. The series is up 3.8% year-over-year (YoY).If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.4% MoM, which was worse than the Investing.com consensus of 0.6%. The core measure is up 4.8% YoY.If we exclude both transportation and defense for an even more fundamental "core", the latest number is up 0.1% MoM and up 1.6% YoY.Core Capital Goods New Orders (nondefense capital goods used in the production of goods or services, excluding aircraft) is an important gauge of business spending, often referred to as Core Capex. It is up 0.4% MoM and up 6.5% YoY.For a look at the big picture and an understanding of the relative size of the major components, here is an area chart of Durable Goods New Orders minus Transportation and Defense with those two components stacked on top. We've also included a dotted line to show the relative size of Core Capex.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shows Improvement in December - Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in November, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell to 15 in November from 29 in October but still indicates expansion.The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.Here is an excerpt from the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview:Fifth District manufacturing activity showed signs of improvement in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 15 in November to 19 in December, buoyed by increases in the indexes for new orders and employment, while the third component—the shipments index—declined but remained positive. Indexes for local business conditions and capital spending were also positive, and manufacturers were optimistic that conditions would improve in the coming months. Link to Report Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

 GoDaddy uses fake holiday bonus notification to test employees on email phishing - Internet domain company GoDaddy used a holiday bonus notification to test employees on email phishing scams, after workers had already been told they would not receive a bonus this year. The email to all staff, obtained by NBC affiliate KPNX in Arizona, was sent on Dec. 14 and read: "Happy Holiday GoDaddy! 2020 has been a record year for GoDaddy, thanks to you!" "Though we cannot celebrate together during our annual Holiday Party, we want to show our appreciation and share a $650 one-time Holiday bonus!" the email continued. "To ensure that you receive your one-time bonus in time for the Holidays, please select your location and fill in the details by Friday, December 18th." The email from GoDaddy, which is headquartered in Scottsdale, Ariz., comes months after CEO Aman Bhutani announced companywide layoffs, prompting some employees to call the testing mechanism insensitive, KPNX reported Wednesday. The Hill has reached out to GoDaddy for comment. GoDaddy, which has millions of customers, has fallen victim to various data breaches. Earlier this year it disclosed a breach that occurred in October 2019, according to Forbes. The company is not the first to use fake bonuses as a way to test employees. News media company Tribune Publishing sent out a similar email to employees in September, using bonuses as bait. The company had previously announced it was closing down certain newsrooms, imposing pay cuts and furloughing some employees. Tribune later issued an apology and called the email "misleading and insensitive."

Coronavirus outbreak forces closure of Amazon warehouse in New Jersey - On December 19, Amazon closed its warehouse in Robbinsville, New Jersey, (PNE5) after testing revealed an increase in asymptomatic coronavirus cases. The company notified workers that the site would remain closed until December 26 and that they would be paid for shifts they missed because of the closure.“This is exactly why we built the [in-house coronavirus testing] program—to identify asymptomatic cases and ensure that we can take swift action to prevent spread,” said Amazon spokesperson Lisa Levandowski in a statement. But she did not answer a reporter’s question about whether the facility would be cleaned while it is closed, nor did she say how many cases had been detected at the Robbinsville warehouse.Levandowski’s depiction of Amazon’s diligence does not jibe with workers’ experience. The text messages that the company sends to alert employees about infections often are delayed. They do not identify the infected workers, state where they were stationed or explain who has been in contact with them. Text messages have even been sent to the wrong warehouse, according to workers.The outbreak in Robbinsville is not the first to occur at an Amazon facility in New Jersey. In April, 48 workers at a fulfillment center in Edison became infected with the virus. At the time, it was the largest reported outbreak at any of Amazon’s locations in the state. New Jersey is an important center of operations for Amazon. The company employs more than 34,000 workers at 14 fulfillment centers and three delivery stations in the state. New Jersey also is home to 21 Whole Foods stores, which are owned by Amazon.

 Armed fascists storm Oregon state Capitol building -- Armed fascists led by Joey Gibson and Chandler Pappas of the Patriot Prayer group forced their way into the Oregon state Capitol in Salem on Monday morning, in an attempt to disrupt a special legislative session. Gibson and Pappas led the group, composed of roughly 100 people, in a six-hour standoff on the Capitol grounds to protest an $800 million bill, which, among other things, would provide rental assistance to landlords and tenants, permit carry-out alcoholic beverages, extend an eviction moratorium and limit school liability for coronavirus claims. The protest had been planned in advance by Gibson. On the ground footage from independent journalist Laura Jedeed shows protesters, some wearing body armor and others carrying semi-automatic rifles, shoving and spraying mace at police as they attempt to get inside. Protesters also shattered windows in the Capitol. In contrast to the thousands of anti-police violence protests that have occurred over the past year, the police were more than accommodating, allowing the anti-lockdown protesters to occupy the capitol grounds for several hours even after an “unlawful assembly” was declared by Oregon State Police. After a section of the crowd managed to get into the foyer of the capitol, the cops reluctantly deployed mace and inert pepper balls against those inside the building, while a long-range acoustic device (LRAD) advised the crowd outside to disperse. Protesters attempted to get into the building multiple times. By the afternoon, state troopers, including riot police with Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles, were deployed outside the Capitol, prompting a brief stand-off before the crowd dispersed. While many of the protesters were shouting racist and fascist chants, advocating an end to any restrictions to stop the spread of the coronavirus, some in the crowd were simply demanding economic relief after their businesses or workplaces had been shut down for months. Inside the building, Republican state Senator Dallas Heard accused his colleagues of joining Democratic Governor Kate Brown’s “campaign of intimidation against the people and children of God,” signified by the requirement for legislators to wear a mask inside the building. Brown, along with Portland’s Democratic Mayor Ted Wheeler, have been repeatedly denounced by President Trump for being insufficiently brutal in repressing protests against police violence.

  As temperatures plummet and pandemic rages, homelessness in Michigan poised to explode - Suffering is dramatically increasing as winter starts during the upsurge of the COVID-19 crisis across the United States. The economic impact has fallen on the working class; wages are falling and protections from eviction are set to expire in less than a week—a period of time which would be extended only for another month should the “relief” bill passed by Congress be signed into law. Already landlords have initiated tens of thousands of legal proceedings to force tenants from their homes for their inability to pay. Homelessness, already impacting hundreds of thousands of adults and children, is poised to explode. Michigan, once among the more prosperous states, with its concentration of automobile assembly and parts plants, but today well below the median in terms of household income, is particularly affected. Homelessness is growing in cities and towns across the state. The local NBC affiliate in Kalamazoo, WOOD-TV, reported earlier this month on a homeless encampment that has doubled in size from 12 tents to more than two dozen since the spring. Not far from the Pfizer facility producing COVID-19 vaccines—the largest plant in pharmaceutical behemoth Pfizer’s operations—and the headquarters of medical device giant Stryker, workers who have been unable to afford their homes and apartments are camping out in the cold, with relief coming only from working class volunteers who arrive to bring food, firewood, and help as best they can. One resident told WOOD-TV that she had taken to placing her tent within a larger tent that might act as a wind-stop. “I am cold all the time,” she said. Homelessness in Michigan is widespread. According to the National Alliance to End Homelessness (NAEH), there were 8,575 people that experienced homelessness in the state on any given night in 2019. For the US as a whole, that number is 500,000. This number could easily balloon into the millions if the national eviction moratorium expires at the end of December or January. Federal funding remains a pittance in comparison to the scale of homelessness. The misnamed CARES Act, passed in March chiefly to prop up financial markets, provided $4 billion in funding for homeless services. Steve Berg, vice president for programs and policy for the NAEH, told NBC News that $15 billion was actually needed simply to address the increase in homelessness in 2020 that has been caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated hemorrhaging of jobs. Other cities in Michigan, large and small, have seen the need for shelter grow throughout the year. Chad Audi, president of Detroit Rescue Mission Ministries told the Detroit Free Press that one site had an overflow capacity limit of 125 beds. In previous years, bed usage always lessened in summer with warmer weather. But this year it never dipped below 120. Meanwhile, in Traverse City, a popular tourist destination but with a relatively small population of about 16,000, a memorial walk was held on Monday to remember the 13 homeless people who died on the streets there this year. Nationally, this number is estimated at about 13,000.

Second fatal policing shooting in Columbus, Ohio in less than a month sparks outrage --Andre Hill, 47, was fatally shot by a police officer on Tuesday in Columbus, Ohio, sparking outrage in the state capital. The killing comes just three weeks after the fatal police shooting of 23-year-old Casey Goodson Jr. in his driveway ignited protests in the city.Hill, who was African American, was shot and killed early Tuesday morning by Adam Coy, a 19-year veteran of the Columbus Division of Police (CDP), within seconds of their encounter. Coy was relieved of duty and told to turn in his gun and badge pending an investigation.According to the description of events provided by the police, officers responded to a “non-emergency call” from a neighbor at 1:37 a.m. on December 22 about a man in an SUV repeatedly turning his car on and off for an “extended period of time.” The call was little more than a noise complaint, with officers arriving to the scene to find a man inside a garage with the door open.Disturbingly, the officers did not have their body cameras on, in violation of department policy, and only turned them on after the shooting occurred. However, the body cameras were designed to record 60 seconds of footage prior to operation.The 60 seconds of playback footage that was recorded shows Hill walk out of the garage with a cell phone in his left hand and his right-hand out of sight. One of the officers almost immediately opened fire on Hill as he began to approach the officers.The playback footage shows that about five seconds passed between when Hill became visible and when he was fired upon. He was walking slowly and calmly, making no sudden movements. His left hand is carrying a cell phone held in a manner that suggests he was filming the police himself, though no footage from Hill’s phone is known. His right hand makes no movements at all, appearing to be tucked inside his coat pocket.The footage also shows a delay in any provision of medical treatment to Hill as he bled out on the pavement. Several minutes passed before he was given any attention. Hill was even handcuffed before any medical care was provided. He died less than an hour later at OhioHealth Riverside Methodist Hospital. Potentially the most striking moment of the video is when Coy turns Hill over to search for a weapon as Hill moans out his final breaths. Finding none, Coy cursed with the resigned expression of a person fully aware that they have just wrongfully killed an unarmed person. Despite this, Coy made no attempt to help Hill himself or to get another person to help. Coy barely spoke a word and instead left Hill to bleed out and die.

Low-income preschoolers exposed to nurturing care have higher IQ scores later on - Preschoolers living in impoverished communities who have access to a nurturing home environment have significantly higher intelligence quotient (IQ) scores in adolescence compared to those raised without nurturing care. That is the finding of a new international study conducted by University of Maryland School of Medicine (UMSOM) researchers, which examined data from more than 1600 children from Brazil and South Africa who were followed from birth through their teenage years. Results were published this week in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health journal.The researchers analyzed data from long-running studies conducted in Brazil and South Africa to assess whether children exposed to early adversities (such as extreme poverty, low birth weight, or pre-term birth) could reach their full learning potential by experiencing responsive caregiving and opportunities to learn in their home. They found that prenatal and early life adversities matter throughout life. Adolescents who had been exposed to multiple adversities early in life had lower IQ scores, were more likely to have difficulties adjusting socially and psychologically, and achieved a lower physical height compared to adolescents exposed to fewer adversities. They also found that being raised in a nurturing environment could significantly counteract the detrimental effect of early adversities on IQ and help children achieve their full intellectual potential. "We found that adolescents who were raised in nurturing environments had IQ scores that were on average 6 points higher than those who were not. This is a striking difference that has profound implications by increasing the intelligence of entire communities," said study corresponding author Maureen Black, PhD, the John A Scholl and Mary Louise Scholl Endowed Professor of Pediatrics at UMSOM. "A nurturing environment also led to better growth and fewer psycho-social difficulties in adolescence, but it did not mitigate the effects of early adversities on growth and psycho-social difficulties."

Mom and daughter who worked at same preschool die of COVID-19 --A Florida mother and daughter, teachers at the same nursery school, died within days of each other from coronavirus complications.Marilyn Foshee, 81, and her daughter, Julie Foshee-Knowell, 44, were both diagnosed with COVID-19 in late November, the Miami Herald reported. The women, longtime employees of Trinity Christian Academy in Jacksonville, were believed to have contracted the virus during the Thanksgiving break. They never made it back to school. Foshee-Knowell died over the weekend. Her mother died a few days earlier, on Dec. 15. Mom Marylin, known to students as “Mimi,” was a longtime preschool teacher, who had been involved with the school since 1994, according to News4Jax. Her daughter, the preschool director, started as an assistant at the school when she was a teenager and rose through the ranks, the outlet reported. Trinity spokesman Pastor Tom Messer told the Florida Times-Union that the beloved educators “lived in a way that they gave their life up for everybody else.” A GoFundMe page was initially set up by family friend Angie Dennard to help cover Foshee’s funeral costs. Now the money will go to pay for services for both women.

Chicago Public Schools and Chicago Teachers Union advance deadly school reopening plans - On December 14, Chicago Public Schools (CPS) announced the hiring of 2,000 school workers to assist in the full reopening of the nation’s third largest school district. Some principals have reported to local media that one-quarter to one-half of teachers and staff may not return to schools next month due to the unacceptable health risks to all involved. Earlier this month, CPS announced its homicidal school reopening plan amid the deepest surge of the pandemic in Illinois and across the United States. Teachers and staff for pre-Kindergarten, moderate and intensive special education cluster programs are scheduled to return to class January 4, while students for these classes are set to return on January 11. Teachers and staff for grades K-8 are to report to schools January 25, with students for these grades scheduled to be back in school February 1. Teachers reporting to work in schools will be responsible for simultaneously teaching students in-person in the classroom, as well as those who opt to stay home and learn online. This “hybrid” system, as teachers nationwide have been reporting for many months, is the worst of all possible situations, and leaves everyone dangerously exposed to the virus. Further, splitting their time and attention between in-person and online students is in part why many additional staff are needed, underscoring that quality of education is not the priority in reopening the schools. The push to reopen schools in Chicago and across the US takes place as the coronavirus pandemic spreads uncontrollably across much of the country, hitting the Midwest especially hard in recent months. The state of Illinois is nearing 100,000 cases of COVID-19, with over 16,000 dead this year and over 100 dying per day for the last 12 days.. Chicago’s current seven-day average COVID-19 test positivity rate is 11.3 percent. Hospital bed availability is critically low, with intensive care unit (ICU) bed availability at 22.8 percent and hospital bed availability at 16.2 percent. Expecting that numerous teachers will be out on medical leave or get sick as schools reopen in January, CPS is seeking to hire 1,000 “cadre substitutes” and low-wage, part-time classroom assistants. The “cadre substitute” will be a dues-paying member of the CTU. The classroom assistant is a $15 per hour position, including in-class supervision, health screenings and social distance monitoring. For risking their lives, they will be paid barely above minimum wage and work 6.75 hours a day, with an unpaid 45 minute lunch break.

Alabama doubles down on school reopenings, as healthcare catastrophe hits the state - As the state death toll in Alabama surpasses 4,500, with ICU beds near capacity, Montgomery Public Schools (MPS) sent teachers home for the holiday with a menacing memo, threatening that they must be prepared to return to unsafe schools January 4. The memo to “MPS ALL,” said it wanted to “make sure our employees” know that the Federal Families First Coronavirus Response Act expires on December 31 and that any absences due to COVID-19 exposure would have to be covered through accrued leave. The administration notes, in no uncertain terms: “When we return to school on January 4, 2021, the leave that the federal government has provided will not be in effect.” It adds, “All positive cases will require that the employee uses his/her accrued leave,” and “All absences of 5 or more consecutive days require a doctor’s note.” The right to isolate and work from home would only be granted, the document adds, “as a result of close contact at school” (emphasis in the original). This means teachers who may have not accrued leave time or who have already used it for quarantining will be left with few options and pressured to return to work even if they are sick or contagious. Such blatantly irresponsible policies threaten not just the health and safety of school workers, but students, parents and the community as a whole. Montgomery teachers were infuriated by this email. One angrily posted on Facebook, “This is the most insensitive and distasteful thing anyone could do on our last day of school before going on Christmas break which happens to be the same day [that] another MPS employee, 2nd employee at Lee [High School has died] within 2 weeks. This is a damn disgrace… Someone has a lot of blood on their hands.” The Alabama healthcare system has reached a state of crisis. The state currently has the fifth highest rate of infection per capita over the past seven days, at 82.4 daily cases per 100,000 people. On December 22, there were 4,758 new cases recorded and the death toll reached 4,587. By comparison, all of mainland China with nearly 1.4 billion people has a COVID-19 death toll of 4,634. The number of new cases is expected to reach 100,000 for the month of December, up from the 57,000 added in November. On December 11, only seven percent of the state’s ICU beds were available, according to Dr. Donald Williamson, president of the Alabama Hospital Association. That day, Montgomery hospitals reported zero beds available. Jefferson County, the largest in the state, had only 13 available. Though bed availability changes from day to day, the trend of increasing hospitalizations has been consistent. New York Times’ current estimate of ICU occupancy in Alabama is 91 percent. COVID-19 hospitalizations in Alabama reached a record 2,527 on Tuesday, the first time hospitalizations exceeded 2,500 since tracking began.

 Washington educators denounce Democratic Governor Jay Inslee’s plan to reopen schools -As the coronavirus spreads like wildfire throughout the United States and along the West Coast, Washington state’s Democratic Governor Jay Inslee announced last Wednesday, “It’s time to begin getting kids back into classrooms.”  The announcement follows the reopening of schools in New York City, which has spearheaded the broader trend of cities and states controlled by the Democratic Party reopening schools as quickly as possible. In addition to Washington state, last week saw Chicago and Washington, DC, announce plans to reopen schools in January. Similar plans were implemented across the state of Oregon last month, while officials in Oakland, California, are also moving to reopen schools in January.  .Monica, an elementary specialist from Seattle who has two of her own children in school, raised important questions, asking, “What exactly does improved classroom ventilation mean? Does it mean that we all get an air purifier paid for by our districts, or does it simply mean keeping a door or window open?” Referring to the state restrictions against bars, restaurants and fitness centers implemented on November 15, she added, “If it’s dangerous for five people to eat together at a table in a restaurant, how is it safe for 15 children to eat together in a classroom?” When asked about the role that schools play in providing childcare so that parents can return to work for major corporations, Monica replied, “So it’s a corporate push to get workers back… to Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing. Our governor is buddies with Bill Gates.” Trisha, a longtime paraeducator in a district just north of Seattle who also spoke with the WSWS, said that she is over 60 years old and has a compromised immune system. She is greatly concerned about returning to the classroom, which for her involves going from class to class as well as the lunchroom and recess. She also works one-on-one with students. If she is no longer allowed to work remotely, she has been informed by Human Resources that her choices are to report to work or take leave. Once her sick leave runs out, she would be unpaid. She noted, “It seems that even a letter from my doctor does not change anything.”

Biden picks Education Secretary committed to opening schools as pandemic rages - On Tuesday, President-elect Joe Biden said that he will nominate Miguel Cardona as Secretary of Education for his incoming administration. Cardona has been Connecticut’s commissioner of education since 2019 and his chief qualification is heavily promoting the reopening of schools during the pandemic, which Biden has stated will be a top “national priority” upon taking office. In selecting Cardona, who is of Puerto Rican descent, Biden is furthering the promotion of racial politics to pursue his thoroughly reactionary agenda. In this case, Cardona’s background as an English language learner and his supposed sympathy for students struggling with remote learning will be invoked to justify the opening of schools throughout the US in the interests of Wall Street. The homicidal campaign to reopen schools since July has never been about improving learning conditions for students, as both parties have deliberately starved school districts and states of the funding needed to ensure high quality remote learning and added assistance to low-income and other at-risk students. Rather, the sole aim in reopening schools is to compel parents to return to unsafe workplaces, in order to pump out ever-greater profits for the financial oligarchy.  Biden stated that upon taking office, “my team will work to see that a majority of our schools can be open by the end of my first 100 days.” With this goal in mind, Biden is selecting Cardona due to the central role he has played in reopening schools in Connecticut this fall. Since the summer, Cardona has joined Connecticut’s Democratic Governor Ned Lamont in falsely claiming that schools are not vectors for the spread of COVID-19. In an op-ed in the News-Times last week, without citing any evidence, Cardona claimed, “ Cases reported by schools, which include students who are in full remote learning, are being traced back to community spread happening outside the building.”Cardona has continually pressured districts to resume in-person learning, such that by December 11 only 28 percent of school districts in the state were operating under a fully remote model, with the rest either fully in-person or under the equally unsafe “hybrid” model. Throughout the fall, state metrics guiding school reopenings were repeatedly revised to enable schools to stay open even as cases quadrupled the original safety thresholds.As a result of these and other policies implemented by the state’s Democratic politicians, Connecticut now has the fifth highest ratio of deaths per person among all US states. In total, 167,377 of the state’s 3.6 million residents have been infected with COVID-19 and 5,676 people have died.  Much is being made of Cardona’s background working in public education, with the press and union officials glowing that Biden has fulfilled his campaign promise of appointing an “educator” as his Education Secretary to replace the despised billionaire heiress Betsy DeVos. In reality, Cardona has spent the past 17 years of his career as a well-paid administrator and he is thoroughly hostile to teachers and education workers. As with Obama’s hated Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, Cardona is a proponent of charter schools, “school choice,” and other schemes that aim to privatize public education. As Connecticut’s education commissioner, he has fought to reinstate high-stakes standardized testing later this year, which he will likely replicate on the national level in order to pressure schools to reopen.

University of Utah freshman running back dies at 19 - University of Utah freshman running back Ty Jordan, who this week was named Pac-12’s offensive newcomer of the year, has died, the school’s team announced Saturday. He was 19. While authorities have not yet officially announced a cause of death, the Denton Police Department in Jordan’s home state of Texas told ESPN that they responded to a shooting call late Friday evening, where they discovered a gunshot victim had been shot one time. According to ESPN, the victim was transported to a local hospital, where he was later pronounced dead. "Following a preliminary investigation, we do believe that this was an accidental shooting, where the victim accidentally shot himself," department public information officer Allison Beckwith told ESPN. “Words cannot express the devastation and heartache that our team is feeling right now upon learning of the tragic death of our teammate and brother,” Utah head football coach Kyle Whittingham wrote in a statement Saturday. The school’s athletics director, Mark Harlan, also released a statement, writing that the school was “deeply saddened and shocked” to learn of Jordan’s death. On Tuesday, the Pac-12 conference announced that Jordan won the title of “Freshman Offensive Player of the Year,” finishing the season with more than 100 yards in each of his last three games. He also ended the season with a total of 597 yards rushing, 11 catches for 126 yards and six touchdowns. The conference noted that Jordan was the first Utah player to win a freshman of the year title and the second to win any of the league’s annual awards. In November 2019, Jordan and an opposing high school football player in Mesquite, a Dallas suburb, went viral after they appeared together in a photo kneeling in prayer following a game.  ‘

West Point accuses more than 70 cadets of cheating in worst academic scandal in nearly 45 years – More than 70 cadets at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point were accused of cheating on a math exam, the worst academic scandal since the 1970s at the Army's premier training ground for officers. Fifty-eight cadets admitted cheating on the exam, which was administered remotely because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most of them have been enrolled in a rehabilitation program and will be on probation for the remainder of their time at the academy. Others resigned, and some face hearings that could result in their expulsion. The scandal strikes at the heart of the academy's reputation for rectitude, espoused by its own moral code, which is literally etched in stone: “A cadet will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.” Tim Bakken, a law professor at West Point, called the scandal a national security issue. West Point cadets become senior leaders the nation depends on. "There’s no excuse for cheating when the fundamental code for cadets is that they should not lie, cheat or steal," Bakken said. "Therefore when the military tries to downplay effects of cheating at the academy, we're really downplaying the effects on the military as a whole. We rely on the military to tell us honestly when we should fight wars, and when we can win them." Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy said West Point's disciplinary system is effective. “The Honor process is working as expected and cadets will be held accountable for breaking the code," McCarthy said in a statement. “The honor system at West Point is strong and working as designed," Lt. Gen. Darryl Williams, the academy's superintendent, said in a statement. "We made a deliberate decision to uphold our academic standards during the pandemic. We are holding cadets to those standards.”

High court allows murder charge after fetus is stillborn -- The California Supreme Court declined to stop the prosecution of a woman who was charged with murder after authorities said she used methamphetamine before her fetus was stillborn. Chelsea Becker of Hanford has remained in custody on $2 million bail since the 2019 stillbirth. Police say methamphetamine was found in the fetus and that Becker, who was 8½ months pregnant at the time of the stillbirth, acknowledged using the drug. Becker, 26, has pleaded not guilty. Supporters say substance use disorder is a medical condition, not a crime, and that there is not enough evidence to say methamphetamine use causes stillbirths. Philip Esbenshade, executive assistant to Kings County District Attorney Keith Fagundes, said the law authorizes a murder charge for “the reckless or indifferent unlawful conduct of a mother that results in the unlawful death of her fetus.” The 1970 California law allowing a murder charge does not say whether the pregnant woman herself can be charged. But it lists circumstances that would bar prosecution, including legal abortion, medical intervention to save the woman’s life, or any act that was “solicited, aided, abetted or consented to by the mother of the fetus.”

 Walmart sued by US over alleged role in fuelling America's opioid crisis  - The US Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Walmart on Tuesday, alleging that the retail giant filled “thousands of invalid prescriptions” for powerful painkillers, helping fuel America’s opioid crisis. Walmart runs more than 5,000 pharmacies across the country. Until 2018, the chain was a wholesale distributor of controlled substances for its own pharmacies, giving it extensive reach into many communities. The civil complaint points to the role Walmart’s pharmacies may have played in the crisis by filling opioid prescriptions and by unlawfully distributing controlled substances to the pharmacies during the height of the opioid crisis. “As a nationwide dispenser and distributor of opioids, and given the sheer number of pharmacies it operates, Walmart was uniquely well positioned to prevent the illegal diversion of opioids,” the 160-page civil suit, filed in Delaware federal court, said. “Yet, for years, as the prescription drug abuse epidemic ravaged the country, Walmart abdicated those responsibilities,” the suit added. The DoJ document said the company “knowingly violated well established rules requiring it to scrutinize controlled-substance prescriptions to ensure that they were valid – that is, issued by prescribers in a legitimate manner for legitimate purposes, not for purposes of abuse or other diversion,” the suit continued. While Walmart was legally required to check potential red flags, it “made little effort to ensure that it complied with them”.  Instead, Walmart made it hard for pharmacists to abide by these regulations. Managers pressured pharmacists to fill high volumes of prescriptions as quickly as possible “while at the same time denying them the authority to categorically refuse to fill prescriptions issued by prescribers the pharmacists knew were continually issuing invalid prescriptions”, the complaint charged.

CDC reports a record 81,000 drug overdose deaths in the US in a 12-month period -More than 81,000 people died from drug overdoses between June 2019 and May 2020 in the United States according to a new report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the highest number of overdose deaths recorded in a 12-month period. The report noted that overdose deaths were already increasing before the pandemic, but that the data shows an acceleration in death rates following the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US. The leading factor in this rise in deaths has been attributed to the use of synthetic opioids such as fentanyl. The number of synthetic opioid deaths rose by 38.4 percent from the 12-month period ending in May 2019 compared to the 12-month period ending in May 2020. Of the 38 jurisdictions with synthetic opioid overdose data, 37 reported an increase in deaths, 18 of which reported increases over 50 percent. Ten western states also reported an increase in synthetic-opioid–related deaths of more than 98 percent. The CDC did not specify the states. Additionally, cocaine overdose deaths rose 26.5 percent, and deaths related to psychostimulants, such as methamphetamine, rose 34.6 percent. The CDC believes that the rise in cocaine overdose deaths was influenced by co-use or contamination with fentanyl or heroin. The report also noted that the number of deaths involving psychostimulants has surpassed cocaine-related deaths. The acceleration in drug overdose deaths during the pandemic is a development of a broader exponential growth in such fatalities over the past four decades. The number of drug overdose deaths rose from 1.13 per 100,000 people in 1979 to 16.96 per 100,000 in 2016, according to research published in Science magazine. This growth has resulted in just under 600,000 deaths over a 38-year span, with a doubling of deaths every 9 years. The trends for individual drugs have fluctuated over time; however, the last 20 years have seen opioids take a central position in the growth of overdose deaths. According to data from the CDC, the number of opioid prescriptions is three times higher than in 1999.

CDC panel recommends people 75 and older, certain front-line essential workers be next in line for vaccine -A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) advisory panel recommended on Sunday that people 75 and older and certain front-line essential workers be next in line for COVID-19 vaccines. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) voted 13-1 to advise the CDC to include those 75 and older and specific front-line essential workers, including emergency responders and teachers, in the next phase of coronavirus vaccinations, several news outlets reported Sunday. These recommendations would apply to phase 1b of the vaccination process, after the committee and the CDC advised that health care workers and residents of nursing homes and long-term care facilities get the first vaccinations in the country. Phase 1b will aim to vaccinate about 50 million people before the end of February, according to The New York Times. The ACIP also decided that the groups that should be prioritized in phase 1c are adults aged 65 to 74 and those aged 16 to 64 who have underlying medical conditions. The phase will also involve other essential workers such as corrections officers, postal workers, public transit workers and food supply workers, who were not included in the first two phases. The advisory panel said it decided the prioritized groups based on information from scientists, ethicists, vaccination experts and the general public, NBC News reported. José Romero, chairman of the ACIP and secretary of the Arkansas Department of Health, said the groups were selected “to address the current lack of vaccine supply and address those individuals with the highest risk for disease,” CNN reported. CDC Director Robert Redfield will review the ACIP’s recommendations and determine if the agency adopts it as official guidance. During the meeting, the ACIP noted that its advice was nonbinding, as each state could adjust the recommendations for its own population, according to the Times. Public health experts initially indicated they would allow a larger group of essential workers to receive the vaccine ahead of older adults. But ACIP member Kathleen Dooling noted that those 75 and older have made up 25 percent of COVID-19-related hospitalizations even though they account for 8 percent of the population, according to NBC News. Surgeon general: Immigration status should not be bar

Covid-19 Vaccine Makers Tap Contractors to Produce Billions of Doses - High-profile drug companies have turned to a quickly assembled network of smaller, lesser-known manufacturers to mount an unprecedented effort to produce Covid-19 vaccines. The companies have been forced to rely on outside manufacturers world-wide because their new vaccine technology has never been used at industrial scale. Even drugmakers using more conventional technology are getting outside help because of the speed at which they need to ramp up production to meet orders for more than a billion vaccine doses next year. “We’re working harder and faster than we ever have,” said Ger Brophy, executive vice president of biopharma production at Avantor Inc., one of dozens of third-party manufacturers that have been mobilized to make vaccine ingredients, combine them into finished products and fill them into vials. Dr. Brophy says the company’s plants have added workers and night shifts to keep up with demand. Moderna Inc.’s vaccine, which received emergency authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Friday, and another from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE rely on a new messenger RNA technology, named after the molecular couriers that deliver genetic instructions to a patient’s immune system to fight Covid-19. That makes industrialization easier than for traditional vaccines, pharmaceutical experts say, because manufacturers don’t have to work with live pathogens.But to produce hundreds of millions of doses, manufacturers stitched together supply chains in a matter of months—a process that usually takes years—before clinical trials were even completed. Some in the industry liken that endeavor to building an airplane while flying it. “Many of these airplanes have never been made before,” said Dr. Brophy. Avantor, based in Radnor, Pa., makes lipids that are formed into nanoparticles to carry fragile mRNA into human cells. Lipids have traditionally been sourced from animals, but the process isn’t efficient for making hundreds of millions of doses, so the company has had to quickly increase its capacity for producing the substances synthetically from plants, says Dr. Brophy. The rush to ramp up production meant that Recipharm AB, a Swedish company hired to help produce Moderna’s vaccine, began instituting Moderna’s directives for vaccine production without a final contract between the companies, jumping ahead of the usual legal formalities.

Covid-19 Vaccines Are Slow to Reach Rural America -Five days after Covid-19 vaccines started rolling out across the U.S., rural hospital executives like Cory Edmondson are still waiting, and hoping, that they will receive some doses soon. “How do you tell your staff, your nurses, your doctors, ‘Hey, we’re not going to get the vaccine [yet]?’” said Mr. Edmondson, chief executive of Peterson Health in Kerrville, a town of about 24,000 in the Texas Hill Country. “They’re going to feel like ‘Whoa, we’re not as important or valuable, just because we’re in rural Texas.’” The push to swiftly immunize most of the American population against the coronavirus is already one of the most ambitious public-health efforts the nation has ever undertaken. Reaching rural communities and small towns that are grappling with some of the highest infection rates and often have weaker health-care infrastructure is among the most formidable challenges, according to health experts. “These small towns are where those who are in the most need of health-care services and have the fewest available options live,” said Alan Morgan, chief executive of the National Rural Health Association. “You’ve got a population that has been hit hard by Covid and has a very fragile safety net when it comes to providers.” While the pandemic initially wrought havoc in major cities like New York last spring, it later spread to less populated areas. All of the 25 counties with the highest rates of reported cases per capita over the past two weeks had populations of fewer than 50,000 people, and 18 had fewer than 10,000, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. Large metro areas reported more Covid-19cases earlier in the year, but now small townsand rural areas are hardest hit. The challenges of inoculating people who live in smaller towns far from population centers include storing vaccines safely at cold temperatures, having enough healthy hospital staff on hand, and reaching people and clinics far from hospitals. Some states like New Mexico are using their health departments and National Guard to break down bulk shipments of 975 doses of a vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE and ship them to rural hospitals that can’t store that many at the required range of -76 to -112 degrees Fahrenheit. After thawing, the vaccine can be refrigerated for up to five days.

Rolling Out the Vaccine - Peter Dorman - This morning’s New York Times offers a panel discussion on the question of who should get vaccinated against Covid first.  Broadly speaking, they take a utilitarian position: it’s interesting that none disagreed with the positions taken by panelist Peter Singer, the world’s most prominent utilitarian philosopher.  And I wouldn’t either, except for one thing. The vaccines approved by the FDA, along with those approved by other countries like China and Russia, have gone through the fastest possible testing.  Tens of thousands of individuals have been placed in control and treatment groups in order to determine two things: to what extent do the vaccines reduce the likelihood of getting infected (efficiency) and how common and severe are the side effects (safety)?  Meeting both criteria is sufficient for approval, which is how it should be. But there is another crucial question, to what extent do the vaccines reduce transmission of the virus to others?  The answer does not affect whether these vaccines should be employed, but they do have large consequences for other policies during this phase of the pandemic, such as rules for separation and masking, restrictions on activities and events, resumption of in-person schooling, and how much should be spent on interventions like ventilation overhauls. To the extent that vaccination reduces transmission, other restrictions and investments can be modified as the vaccinated portion of the population increases.  Unfortunately, our knowledge of this issue is minimal.  We don’t have any published lab results at all, and we are at least months away from meaningful epidemiological data. A rollout that prioritizes crucial learning could change this.  Some substantial portion of the early vaccines could be reserved for community trials.  A number of communities could be given treatments in which a designated proportion of the population is vaccinated as soon as possible; this portion could be varied (30%, 50%, 70%) so that a variety of treatments could be tested.  Others matched to them by relevant demographic, economic and other variables would be controls and would not receive any vaccines during the trial period. Everyone living in these communities would be tested regularly.  We could then observe differences between community infection rates corresponding to treatment and infer transmission probabilities under real world conditions.  It might also be possible to learn how transmission varies across the different viral strains that have emerged.  The entire operation could be accomplished within the space of a month or less. What is disheartening is that not a single expert on the Times panel broached this possibility.  They are entirely preoccupied with the health significance of vaccination at the individual level and consider communities only in social and economic terms.  To the extent they consider the need for learning at all it is in the context of individual response to vaccines, such as comorbidities and interactions with other drugs people may be taking.

Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine causes allergic reactions at rate higher than other vaccines, doctor says  -Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine may result in more allergic reactions than expected when compared to other vaccines, although it's still rare, Operation Warp Speed’s chief scientific adviser Dr. Moncef Slaoui said during a recent interview. The doctor told CNN Wednesday that the allergic reaction frequency "is superior to what one would expect with other vaccines," although he was aware of only six cases as of Tuesday, out of more than a million inoculations given. Other experts say the vaccine is safe for most people, even those who have mild allergies. "You’ve seen a lot of publicity over a couple of severe allergy cases," Fox News medical analyst Dr. Marc Siegel told "Fox & Friends" on Monday. "For the vast majority of people, and I mean millions, there’s no concern whatsoever." The Food and Drug Administration said last week it was investigating at least five cases in which recipients reacted adversely to the vaccine, Reuters reported Friday. Dr. Peter Marks, director of the Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said it could be linked to the chemical polyethylene glycol, which is an ingredient used in both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says most Americans with allergies should receive the vaccine – unless they have had previous severe reactions to other vaccines or ingredients used in the COVID-19 inoculations.

Adverse Reactions to Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine - Now that governments around the world are rolling out the "only solution" to the most deadly pathogen ever  to plague the human race (other than politicians), recent guidelines by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are most pertinent. On Saturday December 19th, 2020, Thomas Clark MD, MPH, the Deputy Director of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention Division of Viral Diseases at the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases made the following presentation to the ACIP COVID-19 Vaccines Work Group: [link] During that presentation, he noted the following reactions to the COVID-19 vaccine currently being administered in the United Kingdom: [link] He also noted the following occurrences in the United States after the administration of 112,807 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine (to December 19, 2020): [link]. It was recommended that persons with anaphylactic responses to the first dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine should not receive additional doses of the vaccine, a particularly important recommendation given by Pfizer that this vaccine requires a second vaccination after three weeks to be effective as shown here:  While the number of anaphylactic reactions is not terribly alarming (unless you happen to be one of the victims, here are the full statistics showing the report of adverse reactions to the Pfizer vaccine after 112,807 doses were administered: [link].  In total, up to December 18, 2020, 3,150 registrants or 2.8 percent of all persons vaccinated had what can only be described as a significant reaction to the vaccine or what the CDC terms a "health impact event" which it defines as:

• 1.) inability to perform normal daily activities
• 2.) unable to work
• 3.) required care from a doctor or other health care professional

As well, it is important to note that a total of 514 pregnant women had been vaccinated.  This is rather surprising given that the vaccine has not been tested on pregnant women and that the FDA clearly stated in its Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine that the company must undertake a large scale study of adverse events of special interest along with deaths and hospitalizations for pregnant women as shown here: Given that Pfizer's own research showed that the number of adverse reactions to the vaccine increases after the second vaccination, it will be interesting to see how many "health impact events" occur over the coming months once more of the world is vaccinated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

A Document Maven Looks at the Pfizer Vaccine Paper in the New England Journal of Medicine - Lambert Strether - IM Doc, in “An Internal Medicine Doctor and His Peers Read the Pfizer Vaccine Study and See Red Flags [Updated]” wrote:First, a critical issue for any clinician is “exclusion criteria”…. From my reading of this paper, and the accompanying editorial, one would assume there were no exclusion criteria.The “exclusion criteria” are to be found through another document element called a Protocol about which more in a moment.They certainly are never mentioned…. And now we know there were exclusion criteria, not because of anything Pfizer, the investigators, or the NEJM did but because of stunning news out of the UK.  I need to disentangle this a bit, because I think IM Doc is generously taking on a bit more responsibility than he or needed to. First, we need to consider what is meant by “the article.” As we know, there are at least three versions of “Safety and Efficacy”: The online version, the PDF version, and the printed version. Which one was IM Doc reading? Certainly the PDF version (assuming the printed version had not yet arrived in the mail[3]). We know that from IM Doc’s text, because he tells us so himself: He cites to “page 5, in Table 1,” to “tables on pages 6 and 7,” and “to tables on page 7.” The online version has no pages. And IM Doc describes the meeting:we had an ad hoc meeting of our Journal Club to discuss the NEJM article   It is extremely difficult for me to imagine that each member of the Journal Club, whether on Zoom or in person, was reading the online version on a device (one person an Android phone, another on an iPhone, the fourth and fifth on two iPads of different sizes, the sixth on a laptop, and so on). It’s far more likely they were reading the PDF, and most likely printed out, because that way, when one reader says “flip to Table 1 on page 5,” all the readers can easily do that simultaneously (rather than swiping, tapping, scrolling, and so on).So now we come to the first extremely simple reason why IM Doc and his study group, working from the PDF, could not find the Protocol which contained the exclusion criteria. They could not find the Protocol element in the PDF because it was not there.NEJM’s document structure treats protocols as separate, external documents[4], and puts a link to them, called Protocol, within an element called Supplementary Material[5], which is placed at or near the end of the article in the online version only. Here is the online version, which contains the Supplementary Material:  And here is the PDF version, which does not: There’s no formatting in the PDF to indicate what “the protocol” is, and no indication of where it is to be found. All the other mentions of “protocol” are like that. So no wonder — in the trackless wilderness of NEJM’s house style — the Protocol was difficult to find.

Boston doctor with history of allergies has severe reaction to Moderna vaccine - A doctor in Boston with a history of allergies had a severe allergic reaction to Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine. Hossein Sadrzadeh told CNN that after he was vaccinated at Boston Medical Center on Thursday, he felt his heart rate spike to 150 beats per minute. Sadrzadeh also told the news outlet that within minutes he “felt in my tongue and also my throat having, like, some weird sensation of tingling and numbness, the same reaction that I had before to my shellfish allergy.” He also said his blood pressure dropped so low a monitor couldn’t detect it. Sadrzadeh used his EpiPen and was rushed to the emergency room where he was given medications, according to The New York Times. He was released from care four hours later, and told the newspaper that he felt fully recovered as of Friday.The Hill has reached out to Boston Medical Center, Moderna, and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for comment.The incident is the first of its kind reported after Moderna’s vaccine was approved by federal health agencies and distributed and comes as the FDA investigated several reports of allergic reactions into Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine.  Peter Marks, who leads the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said last weekend a chemical called polyethylene glycol, which is present in both vaccines, “could be the culprit.”At the time, the agency advised those who’ve had severe reactions to any component of Moderna’s vaccine in the past not to get that shot.  In light of the allergic reactions, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued guidance advising those who have severe responses after the first dose not to get a second shot. The agency also says people who are allergic to vaccines or injectable therapies should consult their doctors before getting vaccinated.

Moderna COVID vaccine may cause side effects for those with facial fillers -- People with cosmetic facial fillers could experience swelling and inflammation with one of the coronavirus vaccines, the FDA advisory committee noted. According to the committee, several trial participants with fillers have already experienced side effects. A California-based dermatologist said the reaction was immunological, ABC7 reported on Thursday. “Your immune system which causes inflammation is revved up when you get a vaccine, that’s how it’s supposed to work,” said Dr. Shirley Chi, who noted the side effects were easily treated by medical personnel. “So it makes sense that you would see an immune response in certain areas where they see some substance that is not a naturally occurring substance in your body.” She said, however, that the side effects shouldn’t stop people from obtaining the vaccine. “In these cases the patients all had swelling and inflammation in the area that was given the filler,” Chi said. “A couple of the patients had cheek filler six months prior to their vaccine and one patient had lip filler done two days after the vaccine. All were treated with steroids and anti-histamines and all of their reactions resolved.”

Hospitals Retreat From Early Covid Treatment and Return to Basics – WSJ - Doctors are treating a new flood of critically ill coronavirus patients with treatments from before the pandemic, to keep more patients alive and send them home sooner. Last spring, with less known about the disease, doctors often pre-emptively put patients on ventilators or gave powerful sedatives largely abandoned in recent years. The aim was to save the seriously ill and protect hospital staff from Covid-19. Now hospital treatment for the most critically ill looks more like it did before the pandemic. Doctors hold off longer before placing patients on ventilators. Patients get less powerful sedatives, with doctors checking more frequently to see if they can halt the drugs entirely and dialing back how much air ventilators push into patients’ lungs with each breath. “Let us go back to basics,” said Dr. Eduardo Oliveira, executive medical director for critical-care services for AdventHealth Central Florida, which recommends its doctors stick with pre-pandemic guidelines for ventilator use. “The less you deviate from it, the better.” Advances also include new drugs, most notably steroids, for severely ill patients. As the U.S. surge stretches into winter, hospital ICUs are seeing record numbers of Covid-19 cases. Even with more effective treatment, the high volume has required a record number of them on ventilators in the U.S. last week, according to Covid Tracking Project data. Vaccines began distribution in the U.S. last week, but shots for most Americans remain months away. The disease has killed 1.68 million world-wide, according to Johns Hopkins University. Last spring, doctors put patients on ventilators partly to limit contagion at a time when it was less clear how the virus spread, when protective masks and gowns were in short supply. Doctors could have employed other kinds of breathing support devices that don’t require risky sedation, but early reports suggested patients using them could spray dangerous amounts of virus into the air, said Theodore Iwashyna, a critical-care physician at University of Michigan and Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals in Ann Arbor, Mich. At the time, he said, doctors and nurses feared the virus would spread through hospitals. “We were intubating sick patients very early. Not for the patients’ benefit, but in order to control the epidemic and to save other patients,” Dr. Iwashyna said “That felt awful.” Ventilators can injure lungs by causing too much strain as the machines force in air. They deliver air and oxygen through a throat tube, which the body typically fights. “We’ve got gag reflexes that are pretty hard to go away, precisely to avoid things going into our lungs,”  That meant patients required more powerful sedatives to keep them from pulling out throat tubes. Sedation increases risk for delirium, research suggests, and delirium increases the likelihood of long-term confusion and death.

Pennsylvania student said she suffered heart failure at age 20 after mild case of Covid -A Temple University student says she experienced a life-threatening heart condition weeks after recovering from a mild case of Covid-19.  In a Facebook post from Dec. 8, Madeline Neville writes that she returned to her family home for the Thanksgiving holiday after being diagnosed with Covid-19 in late October. Neville said that she tested negative before returning home. But soon after, she was hit by a second wave of symptoms. "I experienced such intense chest pain, shortness of breath, and a slew of other horrible symptoms that came on suddenly and as a complete surprise," she wrote.  In her post, Neville said that she was eventually airlifted to a Philadelphia hospital where she was diagnosed with congestive heart failure."I have been hospitalized for the past nine days, where I struggled everyday to do even the most menial tasks like going to the bathroom and showering on my own, brushing my own teeth and hair, or even walking 10 steps," she wrote.Neville said her doctors told her she had myocarditis, a swelling of the heart muscle that has been linked to Covid-19.Recently, doctors have raised the question of whether athletes should be required to undergo additional screenings before returning to gameplay following recovery from the disease because of the risk of myocarditis. “They were throwing around this term called 'multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children,'" Neville said. The CDC has recently written that the Covid-linked syndrome has recently been observed in adults.When she first shared her story on Facebook in early December, Neville wrote that she hoped that her story might serve as a "reality check" for some of her peers who "take their health for granted.""I know that I did," Neville wrote. "I believed that my youth and health would allow me to make it through any run in I had with the virus relatively unscathed." "However, as someone who has been on the ass end of it, I wish I had chosen inconvenience over jeopardizing my health. I wish I had been more careful in my social interactions prior to contracting COVID, to save myself, my family, and my friends the pain of uncertainty regarding whether or not this illness would kill me."

COVID-19 isolation hurting women more than men -  A study by University of Calgary researchers with the Hotchkiss Brain Institute examining sex and gender differences on sleep, empathy and mood during months of isolation due to COVID-19 has found that women are suffering more than men with poorer sleep and more anxiety, depression and trauma, while also feeling more empathetic than men. The findings published in Frontiers in Global Women's Health is one of the first studies to look at changes in mood and sleep quality during the pandemic. Dr. Veronica Guadagni, PhD, led an online survey of Canadians between March 23 and June 7 of this year. During this time, schools and many businesses were closed, and people stayed home as much as possible as part of a general lock down to prevent transmission of the virus. The researchers examined data from 573 participants, 112 men and 459 women with a mean age of 25.9 years. More than 66 per cent of the volunteer participants reported poor quality of sleep, more than 39 per cent reported increased symptoms of insomnia, and anxiety and distress were increased in the whole sample. Sleep, depression and anxiety symptoms were more prevalent in women. "Generally, the study found women reporting more anxiety and depression," says Guadagni, a postdoctoral scholar at the Cumming School of Medicine (CSM). "Their symptoms worsened over time and with greater length of the isolation period. There was a progressive increase in anxiety, depression, poor sleep quality and trauma for males and females. But it was greater for females over time."

 COVID-19 pandemic’s death toll could shorten life expectancy in US by as much as 3 years - Life expectancy in the U.S. inched up for a second consecutive year in 2019, but the small gains are likely to be erased by the coronavirus pandemic — and dropping by as much as three full years, experts say. The nation’s overall mortality rate fell a bit in 2019, due to reductions in heart disease and cancer deaths. And life expectancy inched up — by several weeks — for the second straight year in 2019, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But life expectancy for 2020 could end up dropping as much as two to three years due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, said Robert Anderson, who oversees the CDC’s death statistics. "We’ve had a lot of deaths added since August, so I think a drop of two to three years for 2020 isn’t out of the question," Anderson said, according to the Washington Post. He said such a drop would mark the largest decline in U.S. life expectancy since World War II, when deaths pushed the metric down by 2.9 years in 1943, the paper reported. A medical staff member injects sodium bicarbonate into a patient in the COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) at the United Memorial Medical Center on Dec. 21, 2020 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Go Nakamura/Getty Images) Anderson said the figures are rough estimates, as data for all of 2020 is not yet available. But the virus in the U.S. has been a big driver of deaths this year, both directly and indirectly. More than 325,000 Americans had died from COVID-19 since the first U.S. cases were reported in early 2020, Johns Hopkins data shows. It has become the third leading cause of death, behind only heart disease and cancer, CDC figures show. For certain periods this year, COVID-19 was the No. 1 killer. RELATED: US tops 3 million deaths in 2020, by far most ever counted But some other types of deaths also have increased. A burst of pneumonia cases early this year may have been COVID-19 deaths that simply weren't recognized as such early in the epidemic. There also have been an unexpected number of deaths from certain types of heart and circulatory diseases, diabetes and dementia, Anderson said. Many of those may also be related to COVID-19. The virus could have weakened patients already struggling with those conditions, or could have diminished the care they were getting, he said.

Scientists alarmed at spread of Covid mutant - The highly infectious variant of coronavirus that has emerged in south-east England is spreading rapidly to the rest of the UK and is already present elsewhere in the world, scientists warned on Sunday.The World Health Organisation said its Evolution Working Group is working closely with the UK medical authorities to understand how the variant, now called B.1.1.7, is likely to affect the course of the pandemic. It has been detected in the Netherlands, Denmark and Australia.Scientists say two aspects of B.1.1.7 give cause for concern. One is the unprecedented number of mutations it carries. The other is the speed with which it is supplanting other strains of the Sars-Cov-2 virus in south-east England.Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said 23 letters in the viral genetic code had changed, of which 17 might affect the behaviour of the virus — in particular helping it to enter and propagate within human cells.“This new variant is very concerning, and is unlike anything we have seen so far in the pandemic,” he said.  “Hospitalisation rates have gone up recently [in south-east England] but roughly in line with the increase in case numbers, which doesn’t point to the new strain leading to more severe symptoms” said François Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute in London.“I’d be very surprised if any evidence arose that it creates more serious symptoms,” Prof Balloux added. “It’s also not a strain that should be able to escape protection provided by immunisation caused by the current vaccines or prior infection.” But Kristian Andersen, director of infectious disease genomics at Scripps Research Institute in California, said: “I have seen many articles stating ‘no effect on immunity or vaccines or clinical features. That is not correct . . . The fact is we don’t know but we will in coming weeks.”  The increased infectivity of the variant is illustrated by the fact that, after appearing in Kent on September 20, it was responsible for 28 per cent of infections in London by early November and 62 per cent in the week ending December 9. Computer modelling suggests that it is 70 per cent more transmissible than other Sars-Cov-2 strains circulating in the UK and raises the R value — the average number of people to whom someone with Covid-19 passes the infection — by 0.4, which makes the pandemic far harder to control without stringent lockdown measures.According to a paper released on Saturday by the Covid-19 Genomics Consortium UK, labs have sequenced 1,623 Sars-Cov-2 viral genomes showing the B.1.1.7 variant. These include 519 in London, 555 in Kent, 545 elsewhere in the UK including Scotland and Wales, and four in other countries. Regular Covid-19 tests do not detect viral mutations. Variants can only be identified through a readout of all 30,000 letters of genetic code in each Sars-Cov-2 sample using specialised sequencing machines.  All viruses mutate and B.1.1.7 is not the first variant to cause concern. Examples include the D614G mutation that emerged early in the pandemic and moderately increases the transmissibility of Covid-19. That strain spread from Spain to the rest of Europe over the summer. The Y453F mutation arose in Danish mink but has not spread widely in other countries. The strain now causing most international concern, besides B.1.1.7, is a different variant in South Africa called 501.V2. Professor Salim Abdool Karim, leader of the country’s Covid-19 programme, said on Friday: “We did not expect the rapid way in which this variant has become dominant in South Africa . . . We are finding between 80 and 90 per cent of the virus is this 501.V2 mutant.”

 CDC Monitoring New "Mutant" COVID Strain From South Africa -Over the last week alarm has sounded over a new variant of COVID-19 rapidly spreading across the U.K. In an interview with CBS News yesterday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert and the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, explained that VUI-202012/01 (the first Variant Under Investigation in December 2020), isn't the first nor the last time the virus will undergo a mutation. In fact, there is another mutant COVID strain spreading around South Africa that the CDC is currently monitoring.  According to the CDC, the new variant, dubbed 501Y.V2, was discovered over the weekend and isn't connected to the U.K. mutation. "On December 18, 2020, the South African government announced that it had also seen the emergence of a new strain in a scenario similar to that in the U.K.," they wrote on their website. "The South African variant also has the N501Y mutation and several other mutations but emerged completely independently of the U.K. strain and is not related to it." According to The Daily Mail, the CDC is currently "monitoring the implication for the U.S." "Putting our data together with that in the U.K., this [South African] variant is a bit more effective at spreading from person to person and that is not good. It means we have to get a bit better at stopping it," Dr. Richard Lessells, one of the specialists leading research into the new variant in South Africa, told The Guardian.  "Ours raises a few more concerns for a vaccine [than the U.K. variant] … Another worry is reinfection. We are currently doing the careful, methodical work in the laboratory to answer all the questions we have and that takes time." Dr. Fauci also acknowledged the new mutation during an interview with PBS, noting that it was likely in America as well. "When you see something that is pretty prevalent in a place like the U.K. — there are also mutations that we're seeing in South Africa — and given the travel throughout the world, I would not be surprised if it is already here," he pointed out.  South Africa has recently experienced a surge of cases, which experts believe is due to the new strain. The country's health minister, Zweli Mkhize, says that the new variant appears to be linked to higher rates of severe illness in younger people.

 One in five US prisoners has contracted COVID-19, 17,736 have died -As the coronavirus pandemic continues to surge across the US bringing with it a wave of death, a forgotten section of the population is being especially ravaged: prisoners in state and federal prisons. The Marshall Project has been tracking inmate cases and deaths since mid-March. The non-profit news organization, in coordination with the Associated Press, reports that by December 15 at least 276,107 people in prison had tested positive for the illness, a 10 percent increase over the week before, far outpacing the previous peak in early August. As testing for the virus is limited, and all cases are not reported, this number is undoubtedly much higher.The following number of new cases were reported on the last week studied:

• California: nearly 6,000
• Federal Bureau of Prisons: more than 3,000
• Michigan and Pennsylvania: more than 2,000 each
• Arizona and Nevada: more than 1,000 each

These staggering figures show that the ruling elite’s policy of “herd immunity” is even more concentrated within prison walls, where prisoners are confined to close quarters and social distancing is nearly impossible. As with workers sent into auto, meat processing and other factories, the lives of prisoners are seen as expendable. Prisoners, moreover, are viewed as a drain on the resources of the capitalist state, which receives limited cash value from their incarceration.Federal prisons have had 33,410 cases, more than any one state prison system, and 175 deaths, second only to Florida, which has seen 189. The number of federal cases has been boosted by the Trump administration’s pursuit of executing as many federal prisoners as possible before Joe Biden is to be sworn as president on January 20. Biden has said he will move to end federal executions.The Department of Justice, under the direction of Attorney General William Barr, is on track to carry out 10 executions on Trump’s way out of office, more than have taken place over the previous three decades. Barr, who directed the Bureau of Prisons (BOP) last year to reinstate capital punishment for federal inmates after what had been an essential moratorium on federal executions, will leave his post before Christmas, washing his hands of the final three executions scheduled in January.

December 21 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations, Record 7-Day Deaths –(graphs) Note: The week-over-week growth in positive cases has slowed.  Hopefully that continues.The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace. There were 2,076,374 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 178,191 positive tests. Over 51,000 US deaths have been reported so far in December. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.  This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.6% (red line is 7 day average).  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending). And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.
• Record Hospitalizations
• Record 7 Day Average Deaths

U.S. sets COVID-19 hospitalization record, as hospitals scramble to find enough nurses and doctors-- More than 117,000 Americans were in the hospital because of COVID-19 symptoms on Tuesday, the largest number of currently hospitalized people from the virus since the pandemic started, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Tuesday, December 22, was also the 21st consecutive day the number of people currently hospitalized with COVID-19 has been above 100,000 in this country. The second-highest day was Monday, with just over 115,000 people hospitalized. Several mobile field hospitals are being erected in California to handle the growing surge of COVID-19 patients. In California alone, state officials reported 700 new hospitalizations on Tuesday. Doctors and nurses say they are treating patients in hallways and parking lots because of the lack of space for more people. The California Department of Public Health reports there are 0% ICU beds available in the large Southern California region, including Los Angeles and San Diego, as well as the San Joaquin Valley region in the center of the state. The record high number of people in the hospital with a transmissible disease is straining medical facilities, as well as staff. Leaders around the country say they are increasingly worried about staffing levels at medical facilities. At a time when there are surges in patients needing intense care, there are staffing shortages and staff balancing quarantine measures. Because “hot spots” are popping up almost everywhere, there are not many doctors or nurses who are available to help other regions. California says they are in need of about 3,000 temporary medical workers to meet the demand. State officials are reaching out to foreign partners in Australia, Taiwan and other locations to recruit critical care nurses, the LA Times reports.. 

As pandemic surges, California hospitals move to ration care -As the COVID-19 virus continues to spread unabated, infecting tens of thousands every day throughout California, overwhelming health care systems and completely filling intensive care units (ICUs), hospitals are moving to implement plans to ration care, withholding it from those deemed unlikely to survive the disease. This disaster is not unpredictable but the outcome of the bipartisan “herd immunity” policy pursued by the ruling class—refusing to close non-essential workplaces and schools with full compensation—which has allowed the virus to spread unabated, sacrificing hundreds of thousands of lives for corporate profits. According to the Los Angeles Times, there were 53,326 confirmed cases on Friday (a new record), bringing the total to nearly 1.9 million, while there were 265 deaths, adding to the nearly 23,000 California residents who have lost their lives to the disease. As of Monday, nearly 18,000 Californians were hospitalized with COVID-19, with more than 3,400 placed in ICUs. The state will soon surpass the single-day record for hospitalizations set by New York state at the peak of its deadly first wave in April. ICUs are at zero capacity throughout Southern California and the 12-county San Joaquin Valley area, while the state’s overall capacity stands at 2.1 percent. The state’s models currently project that at the current rate there could be 100,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations in the next month alone. Last week, the state was forced to activate its “mass fatality” program, which occurs when more deaths take place than can be handled by the local coroner or emergency personnel. Governor Gavin Newsom ordered tens of thousands of additional body bags and the deployment of dozens of refrigerated trailers to hold corpses. The catastrophe in California is unfolding as a new strain of the disease has been identified in the United Kingdom that is reported to be 70 percent more infective than the variants found in the US or other parts of Europe. A document outlining the shift toward rationing care circulated among doctors at four Los Angeles–area hospitals was revealed by the Times over the weekend. “Some compromise of standard of care is unavoidable; it is not that an entity, system, or locale chooses to limit resources, it is that the resources are clearly not available to provide care in a regular manner,” reads the document, according to the Times. Decisions on how to allocate scarce resources—especially respiratory therapists, ICU nurses, and critical care physicians—will be made by a triage officer. For those patients lucky enough to receive such resources, they will be limited to only two days, at which time the decision to continue treatment will be reassessed. “The ethical justification,” reads the document, “is that in a public health emergency when there are not enough critical care resources for all, the goal of maximizing population outcomes would be jeopardized if patients who were determined to be unlikely to survive were allowed indefinite use of scarce resources.”

Covid-19 Patient Kills Fellow Covid-19 Patient in California Hospital, Officials Say - A man being treated for Covid-19 allegedly killed a fellow Covid-19patient at a hospital in California last week, officials said. Jesse Martinez, 37, was arrested and charged with murder, a hate crime enhancement and elder abuse after he allegedly struck his 82-year-old hospital roommate with an oxygen tank on Dec. 17. Martinez allegedly became upset when the victim began to pray and attacked him with an oxygen tank, according to the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department.The two men were patients at Antelope Valley Hospital in Lancaster, about 70 miles north of Los Angeles.The victim and suspect did not know each other, the sheriff’s department said.  The victim, whose name has been withheld pending notification of next of kin, succumbed to his injuries and was pronounced dead on Dec. 18.  Martinez is being held on $1 million bond and is scheduled to appear at Antelope Valley Court in Lancaster on Dec. 28. Court documents did not indicate that Martinez had a lawyer and it is unclear if he retained legal representation.

Collapsed Patient on Crowded Plane Had Covid - A United Airlines passenger who died after collapsing on a Los Angeles-bound flight — and receiving CPR from fellow travelers — had the coronavirus, a coroner said.The 69-year-old man, identified as Isaias Hernandez, passed away at a Louisiana hospital shortly after United Flight 591 made an emergency landing in New Orleans on Dec. 14.Several other passengers had attempted to revive him for over an hour in the air — even after the man’s wife admitted her husband had been experiencing COVID-19 symptoms.The suspected diagnosis was confirmed Tuesday when Jefferson Parish Coroner Gerry Cvitanovich determined that the man died of COVID-19 and acute respiratory failure, the Washington Post reported.  Hernandez had wrongly said he did not have any coronavirus symptoms on a pre-flight checklist, the newspaper said.Nearly 200 people were on board the Orlando-to-LA flight when he lost consciousness mid-flight.One of the fellow passengers who came to his aid, EMT Tony Aldapa, said on Twitterthat he knew the risks of performing CPR but “could not have sat idly by and watched someone die.”Hernandez’s wife later said that her husband had been scheduled for a COVID-19 test when the couple arrived in California — after he lost his senses of taste and smell and was having trouble breathing, according to the Washington Post.

EMT who gave CPR to passenger with COVID-19 says he has symptoms - An off-duty EMT who performed CPR on a United Airline passenger who later died of COVID-19 has revealed that he is now showing symptoms of the deadly virus — and feels like he “got hit by a train,” according to a report.Tony Aldapa was among the passengers who tried to revive Isaias Hernandez, 69, who collapsed on an Orlando-to-Los Angeles flight Monday, even after the man’s wife admitted he had coronavirus symptoms.On Tuesday, Jefferson Parish Coroner Gerry Cvitanovich determined that Hernandez died of COVID-19 and acute respiratory failure. “It was all kind of just second nature to see someone in a bad place, you try to bring them out of the bad place,” Aldapa told CBS Los Angeles.  “There were three of us that were essentially tag-teaming doing chest compressions — probably about 45 minutes,” the emergency medical technician said. Hernandez’s wife later admitted that her husband had symptoms of the killer bug before getting on the flight and was heading home to get tested.“She told me he had symptoms, he was short of breath and she just wanted to get him home and they planned on getting tested this week,” Aldapa told the station. After making an emergency landing to get the man to a hospital, where he died, the flight continued on to LA.Aldapa is now worried he has contracted the disease.  “Essentially I just feel like I got hit by a train,” he told CBS LA. “I had a cough, my whole body still hurt, I had a headache.” Meanwhile, TMZ has reported that United still has not notified the 179 passengers on the flight that Hernandez had COVID-19, saying it is not its responsibility.An airline rep told the outlet that they have been in touch with the CDC and provided the agency with the flight manifest — adding that it’s up to the CDC to contact passengers who may have been exposed.

Wisconsin reports new single-day record of COVID-19 deaths-- The Wisconsin Department of Health Services reported a new single-day record for COVID-19 deaths.The state updated its webpage on COVID-19 death statistics Tuesday and listed 120 more lives added to the total of those who have died due to the disease.The average number of COVID-19 deaths in the state reported each day has been on the rise for the past week.The Atlantic's COVID Tracking Project reported Monday that deaths attributed to the disease were rising in 19 states, including Wisconsin. On average, over 2,600 deaths due to COVID-19 are reported nationwide every day. Dane County added 27 new deaths attributed to the disease to an online data dashboard that tracks COVID-19's impact in the county. Public health staff report the deaths based on death certificate records that they analyze every week.

Coronavirus dashboard for December 22: the pain threshold - (5 graphs) Total US infections: 18,035,209.  Because many asymptomatic cases in particular have probably not been diagnosed, I suspect the truer number is on the order of 25 million, or 1 in every 13 Americans.

• Past 7 days average daily infections: 215,429
• Total US deaths: 319,364
• Past 7 days average daily deaths: 2,655

Here is the latest overall look at new infections and deaths countrywide (note separate scales): Each wave of new infections has been bigger than the one preceding, but deaths only in the past month have risen on a per capita basis to and exceeding the early peak from March and April. In the past 2 weeks, the rate of new infections has stabilized. We can expect deaths to stabilize in the next week or two at the level of one 9/11 each and every day. Unfortunately, there is a behavioral feedback loop bordered by complacency and panic. The former means that voluntary measures alone will never defeat the pandemic. The latter has meant that patent and visible danger leads to a period of serious scaling back of risky activities by the majority of individuals. Given the recent huge surge in cases, is there still a “pain threshold?” I think so, and it probably has been triggered most cogently by news reports of hospital ICU’s that are already at full capacity and most turn away patients, accompanied by a continuing rise in deaths. In the below graphs, I break out new infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by those States which at various times have been the “poster children” for out of control outbreaks: NY and NJ in March and April, AZ and FL during the summer, ND and SD about a month ago, and TN, AL, and MT now.  Obviously there is no set threshold for when infections start to change behavior. No doubt part of this is the differing demographics of the successive waves of infection, as well as improvements to medical treatment. There does seem to be a “pain threshold” for deaths at roughly the level of 2.5 deaths per 100,000 population daily, but note that in summer public behavior changed in AZ and FL well below that level. The rate of hospitalizations seems to correlate most closely with a “pain threshold.” At the level of 4 to 8 hospitalizations per 100,000 population, there is a palpable change in the public’s behavior. Because the large majority of infections do not lead to hospitalizations, it is likely that the level of infections itself does not sufficiently alarm the public so as to change their behavior. But once serious, life-threatening cases become noticeable enough, as indicated by the level of hospitalizations, and additionally by a big rise in reported deaths, people’s behavior begins to change. That even North and South Dakotans changed their behavior once the situation became dire enough seems like the best proof for the existence of such a “pain threshold.”  The newest “poster children” are Tennessee and, alas, California (shown with North Dakota for comparison):

 Doctor dies of COVID-19 after filming viral video: 'This is how Black people get killed' - A Black female doctor died of COVID-19 on Tuesday, just weeks after posting a viral video in which she said she believed she was not receiving proper medical treatment because she was Black. CBS News on Thursday reported the death of Susan Moore, a physician in Indiana who had tested positive for the coronavirus on Nov. 29, and experienced symptoms like a high respiratory rate, high heart rate and high fever, in addition to coughing up blood.In a Dec. 4 video posted on Facebook, Moore said her symptoms were being ignored, with doctors pushing her to leave the Indiana hospital and return home despite lingering symptoms.She said even though she told physicians she was in a great deal of pain, she did not receive pain relievers until a CT scan revealed pulmonary infiltrates and inflamed lymph nodes."He made me feel like I was a drug addict, and he knew I was a physician,” said Moore of her interaction with the physician who was treating her."This is how Black people get killed," Moore said in the video. "When you send them home and they don't know how to fight for themselves."“I put forth and I maintain if I was white, I wouldn’t have to go through that," she added.Moore said she spoke to a patient advocate who said there was little that could be done, at which point Moore requested to be moved to a different hospital. CBS News reported that 12 hours after Moore returned home, her temperature spiked and her blood pressure dropped, returning her to the hospital. Moore died at a different hospital than the one in which she filmed her video.

A person who knowingly went to work while sick likely led to the COVID-19 deaths of 7 people and forced more than 300 people into quarantine, health officials say --A person living in southern Oregon knowingly went to work while sick, and likely caused seven people to die from COVID-19 and forced more than 300 people into quarantine, health officials said.Douglas County officials said last week that the person had "unwittingly and unconsciously" chose to go to work while sick, and later tested positive for COVID-19.It's unclear exactly when the the person went to work or where they are employed, but Douglas County officials said in a December 17 statement that the action led to two major COVID-19 outbreaks."One of those outbreaks has resulted in seven deaths, and the other recent outbreak has placed over 300 people/families in quarantine," the statement said. "We can't even imagine the tremendous remorse these people are feeling right now, and we sympathize with them."Officials referred to the person's decision to go to work as a "superspreader action" - a take on the term "superspreader event" that can be used to refer to weddings and other large gatherings during which COVID-19 can spread.Douglas County, which has a population of just u under 111,000, has had 1,323 COVID-19 cases since the pandemic began, and 37 deaths from the virus.Oregon Gov. Kate Brown recently encouraged residents to stay home for the holidays."As you did with Thanksgiving, I am asking once again that you rethink your Christmas and New Years plans," she said at a news conference, according to Oregon Live.

Ohio coronavirus cases increase by 7790; 109 new deaths: Wednesday update- Ohio officials reported Wednesday 7,790 new coronavirus cases, bringing the total case count in Ohio to 644,822. The number of people who have died with COVID-19 increased by 109 on Wednesday, to 8,361 deaths in all. Cases are below the 21-day rolling average of 9,852. Deaths are above the 21-day average of 80. The state follows the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s definition of a “case,” which includes those diagnosed through genetic PCR or antigen tests, or people diagnosed in a clinical setting — experiencing symptoms who are linked to a confirmed COVID-19 case, among other criteria. Other data released Wednesday:

• -7.35 million PCR and molecular coronavirus tests have been performed in Ohio.
• -126 fewer people were hospitalized on Wednesday, according to data provided by the Ohio Hospital Association. The 4,694 hospital beds used by COVID-19 patients on Wednesday will be revised in coming days, as more complete admissions and discharge data is collected.
• -The percent of PCR and molecular tests that have come back positive was 15.3 on Monday, the most recent day for a positivity rate. The rate for the past seven-days was 14%.

Ohio reports 8828 new coronavirus cases, to a total of 653650: Thursday update -The number of newly reportd coronavirus cases increased by 8,828 on Thursday, and deaths went up 95, according to the Ohio Department of Health. In all, there have been 653,650 cases since the beginning of the pandemic, and 8,456 total deaths. Thursday’s cases were below the 21-day rolling average of 9,848 cases. Deaths were above the 21-day average of 81. The state follows the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s definition of a “case,” which includes those diagnosed through genetic PCR or antigen tests, or people diagnosed in a clinical setting — experiencing symptoms who are linked to a confirmed COVID-19 case, among other criteria. Among other data Thursday: -489,808 people are presumed recovered from COVID-19 cases. The Department of Health presumes someone is recovered when their symptoms were over 21 days old and they haven’t died from the coronavirus.

COVID-19 in Ohio: Nearly all of Ohio is red on state's map - Nearly all of Ohio's 88 counties are red in the newest version of the state's coronavirus advisory map released Thursday. The map shows 84 of the state's 88 counties are red (Level 3) in the four-tier, color-coded Ohio Public Health Advisory System, with only four orange (Level 2) counties: Monroe, Hocking, Vinton and Gallia. There have been no yellow (Level 1) counties for weeks. The only change to the map from last week is that the sole purple (Level 4) county — Richland — dropped to red this week. There were 8,828 new cases reported Thursday, an increase from Wednesday but below the 21-day average of 9,848. Another 95 deaths were reported, pushing the state's total to 8,456. The 21-day average for deaths is 81. Hospitalizations also were below the 21-day average of 384 with 320. But two new maps detailing cases per capita by county and how many patients are filling intensive care units showed how widespread COVID-19 remains. DeWine and the Ohio Department of Health have said the original map was designed as an early warning system to measure when cases and health care use were escalating to let people know when to take increased precautions. Now, those measures are all at an elevated plateau, so the advisory system doesn't accurately reflect the sustained high levels, the health department said. According to the per capita map, every county in Ohio exceeds the CDC’s threshold for high incidence, which is 100 cases per 100,000 residents. Case incidence is a measure of how many cases there are in each county, adjusted for population. ODH said the information can help people understand the severity of COVID-19 transmission by county. At the beginning of August, the statewide average of cases per capita during the previous two weeks was 101. This week, the statewide average is 769 cases per 100,000 residents during the past two weeks. There also are seven counties that are at 1,000 or more, which means at least 1 out of every 100 residents has tested positive for COVID during the past two weeks and are at risk of spreading it to others. According to a new ICU map, at the beginning of August, about 12% of Ohio’s ICU patients were COVID-19 positive, or 1 out of every 8. Now, it's up to 31%, or 1 out of every 3. "While there are some differences across counties, most counties in Ohio have worsened on these measures since the fall and remain at unacceptably high levels of spread," ODH said in a news release. "The current impact on the healthcare system is severe and unsustainable."

 LA County sets grim milestone with 140 COVID-19 deaths in a single day -Los Angeles County reported 140 COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday, the largest number of fatalities counted in a single day in the county as coronavirus cases continue to surge. More than 13,000 COVID-19 cases were reported Wednesday alone, according to a tally from the Los Angeles Times. County health officials have warned health care providers not to send patients to area emergency rooms unless necessary, the newspaper reported. The officials also sent a memo to health care providers on Wednesday saying local hospitals have reached a breaking point. “It is critical that as a healthcare community we look at all available opportunities to help decrease the surge on hospitals and our 911 system, where possible,” Sharon Balter, the county’s chief of communicable disease control and prevention, wrote in the memo, according to the Times. L.A. County has reported an average of 13,789 coronavirus cases per day over the last week. Four out of five regions across California are under stay-at-home orders, and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said Southern California will likely remain in lockdown beyond Dec. 28, when restrictions are currently scheduled to end.

California becomes 1st state to record 2 million coronavirus cases - California became the first state to record 2 million confirmed coronavirus cases, reaching the milestone on Christmas Eve as nearly the entire state was under a strict stay-at-home order. Gov. Gavin Newsom warned that hospitalizations could soon double if people don’t change their behavior for the holidays. A tally by Johns Hopkins University showed the nation’s most populous state has recorded 2,010,157 infections since January. At least 23,635 people have died from the virus. The first COVID-19 case in California was confirmed Jan. 25. It took 292 days to get to 1 million infections on Nov. 11. Just 44 days later, the number topped 2 million. The California Department of Public Health separately tallied 2,003,146 cases and a one-day bump of 39,070 infections that was down from the one-day peak of nearly 54,000 cases at mid-month. The state’s death toll climbed by 351, also down from the record high set last week. Another 427 people were hospitalized, raising the total to 18,875. The 3,962 in intensive care units was a record high, as is the number of those hospitalized. “We’re projecting that our hospital number will double in just the next 30 days, and our projections have gotten much more solid,” Newsom said in a video posted on his social media pages from his home, where he remains in quarantine for the second time after a potential exposure. “I fear that, but we’re not victims to that if we change our behaviors.” California’s infection rate — in terms of the number of cases per 100,000 people — is lower than the U.S. average. But its nearly 40 million residents mean the outbreak outpaces other states in sheer numbers. The crisis is straining the state’s medical system well beyond its normal capacity, prompting hospitals to treat patients in tents, offices and auditoriums. “In most hospitals about half of all of the beds are filled with COVID patients and half of all the ICU beds are filled with COVID patients, and two-thirds of these patients are suffocating due to the inflammation that’s in their lungs that’s caused by the virus,” said Dr. Christina Ghaly, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services. “They’re suffocating to the point that they can no longer breathe on their own, and they have to have someone put a tube down their throat, in order to oxygenate their organs. Many of these people will not live to be in 2021,” she said.

'It's So Much Worse Than Before.' Dread And Despair Haunt Nurses Inside LA's ICUs -- The massive surge in coronavirus cases has left hospitals in Los Angeles County scrambling to handle the increasing numbers of patients showing up at their doors. Nowhere is that more evident than in hospitals' intensive care units, which are rapidly filling up with the worst COVID-19 cases. "We have no ICU beds," says Brad Spellberg, chief medical officer of LAC+USC Medical Center, one of the area's largest hospitals. "We are just continually, 24 hours a day, scrambling to move patients around. The flood just continues." As dire as the situation is, Spellberg says, it's going to get even worse. The crush of cases spurred L.A. County health officials to send guidance to the four public hospitals it manages on how to ration emergency care, reports the Los Angeles Times. Instead of trying to save every life, the goal would be to save as many patients as possible. That means those less likely to survive would not get the same kind of care they would usually receive. That type of triage is just weeks away, Spellberg warns. "We are the safety net, that is the point. The safety net itself is stressed to the limit," he says. More than 15,000 residents test positive every day, on average, in Los Angeles County. The average daily deathsfrom COVID-19 in the county stands at 94, and 281 statewide. A staggering 6,155 Angelenos are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, and 20% of them are in the ICUs spread across the county's 80 acute-care hospitals. "We are forecasting that in this current surge — between Nov. 1 and Jan. 31 — 8,700 people in Los Angeles County will die from COVID. That is nearly three times the number of people that died in the 9/11 terrorist attacks," "The worst is yet to come," Spellberg fears Los Angeles is rapidly approaching the situation in New York City last April, where hospitals were overwhelmed with critically ill COVID patients. What does that look like, on the inside? Spellberg says it's like "battlefield medicine," a frantic race to save lives when there aren't enough staffers to cope: "You've got nurses that are assigned 20 patients when they're only supposed to be assigned five. You've got doctors who haven't managed a ventilator in 20 years suddenly being responsible to manage ventilators." "If it gets as bad as it did in New York, and if we don't slow this thing down in L.A.,that's where we're going," Spellberg says. 

Virginia sets new records for COVID-19 cases on Christmas Eve - On Christmas Eve, Virginia reported a new record number of COVID-19 cases, and the state's seven-day average of new cases hit another high as well. The Virginia Department of Health reported 4,782 new cases of coronavirus Thursday, surpassing the previous one-day high of 4,652 just the day before. The statewide seven-day average of new cases reached a new high of 3,974.6, surpassing the previous high high of 3,920.3 set Dec. 12. The average is up 11% in the past week and 65% in the past month. The Northern Virginia region reported 1,129 new cases on Thursday, and its seven-day average rose to 1,034.4, below the peak of 1,124.4 set Dec. 12. The health department reported 31 new deaths related to COVID-19 Thursday, with five of those in Northern Virginia: three in Fairfax County and two in Arlington County.

 ICUs begin filling up in New York City as Cuomo, de Blasio dither on effective pandemic restrictions -Intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy is climbing toward capacity in several hospitals in New York City. With cases, test positivity rates and hospitalizations continuing to increase, it is only a matter of time until overall city ICU capacity is strained beyond capacity, resulting in an even greater loss of life than has already occurred. According to data from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), two hospitals, Flushing Hospital Medical Center and NewYork-Presbyterian Brooklyn Methodist Hospital, are already above 100 percent ICU capacity, and four others in New York City, including Staten Island University Hospital, are at or above 90 percent capacity. Several hospitals across the New York City area have fewer than five available ICU beds, including University Hospital in Newark, New Jersey, and Nassau University Medical Center on Long Island. While overall capacity is around 20 percent according to HHS data (which has a delay of a week or more), at least some of this appears to be due to increasing ICU bed capacity, according to Gothamist. Even if additional beds are added, staffing and equipment are needed to properly treat COVID-19 patients. Moreover, even if there is capacity elsewhere in the city or state, if an individual hospital is overwhelmed this can cause a localized spike in deaths. Even though hospitals are transferring patients more often than they did in the disastrous early stages of the pandemic, it is difficult to safely transfer patients who require intensive care or are nearing that point. The past week has seen 189 deaths in New York City alone, an increase from the 152 deaths on average the prior four weeks. Similarly, there have been 1,439 hospitalizations in the past week compared to 1,283 on average in the preceding four weeks. With the more infectious COVID-19 variant that originated in the United Kingdom almost certainly circulating in New York already, the only way to avert a staggering increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths rivaling the spring is through significant measures to reduce the spread of the disease, particularly the immediate closure of schools and nonessential businesses, the provision of personal protective equipment (PPE) and safe working environments to those working in essential industries, and the guarantee of full income protection for workers and small businesses affected by shutdown measures. Instead of making any efforts along these lines, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, both Democrats, have enacted ludicrously limited measures under the state’s “micro-cluster strategy.” The strategy, which involves Cuomo designating geographic areas as yellow, orange or red zones and applying limited measures per tier, is wholly inadequate to stop the spread of COVID-19, as evidenced by steadily increasing cases and deaths.

December 24 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations --Note: Expect a dip in the data over the holidays. The week-over-week growth in positive cases has slowed.  Hopefully that continues. The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.There were 1,889,205 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 199,375 positive tests. Almost 61,000 US deaths have been reported so far in December, surpassing April as the deadliest month. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.  The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 10.6% (red line is 7 day average).  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending). And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

US deaths top 3 million, record year driven by COVID-19 — This is the deadliest year in U.S. history, with deaths expected to top 3 million for the first time — due mainly to the coronavirus pandemic.Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.That would mark the largest single-year percentage leap since 1918, when tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers died in World War I and hundreds of thousands of Americans died in a flu pandemic. Deaths rose 46% that year, compared with 1917.COVID-19 has killed more than 318,000 Americans and counting. Before it came along, there was reason to be hopeful about U.S. death trends.The nation’s overall mortality rate fell a bit in 2019, due to reductions in heart disease and cancer deaths. And life expectancy inched up — by several weeks — for the second straight year, according to death certificate data released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.But life expectancy for 2020 could end up dropping as much as three full years, said Robert Anderson of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

 COVID-19 hospitalizations, deaths worldwide reach record highs - All over the world, the 2020 holiday season is dominated by the tragic reality that 1.7 million human beings, cut down by the coronavirus pandemic, will never again have the opportunity to visit and celebrate with loved ones. More than three people have died each minute from the disease since the first case of COVID-19 was reported to the World Health Organization. They include grandparents forced to say goodbye to their loved ones via computer, workers whose last moments were spent struggling to breathe on a ventilator, young adults whose lives had barely begun, and infants as young as two months old who were barely aware of the world before their lives were snuffed out. Nearly a year on, the pandemic is accelerating. More than 11,500 people are dying every day, almost double the highest death rate recorded during the first wave in April. It took four months for the first 100,000 lives to be lost. Now, 100,000 people are killed every nine days. The United States remains the most hard-hit country. President Donald Trump’s policy of herd immunity, aided and abetted by the Democrats, has so far slain more than one in every 1,000 people living in the country. Every day nearly 3,000 deaths are reported, along with 220,000 new infections, as schools and workplaces are forced to remain open, further spreading the deadly disease. The most recent surge has prompted a variety of ominous comments, particularly from President-elect Biden’s coronavirus advisory board. Dr. Celine Gounder, a professor at New York University, told MSNBC that a “surge on top of a surge on top of a surge” is coming in the next few weeks. She warned that hospital workers will “have to be making some very difficult decisions about triaging, unfortunately, who gets what care and who does not.” This will be most true in states such as California, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas, where hospital systems are nearing capacity. “If we have another surge after Christmas and New Year’s like we did after Thanksgiving, it will completely break our hospitals,” Tennessee Health Commissioner Dr. Lisa Piercey told National Public Radio. Comments along these lines were made by another member of Biden’s advisory board, Dr. Atul Gawande. He told CNBC that “hospitals in more than a third of the country are already full to overflowing,” setting the stage for an even more catastrophic situation than that which already exists. There are more than 115,000 coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the US, double the peak numbers in both July and April, and the daily hospitalization rate is rising, When asked about how to avoid an even worse scenario, Gawande responded, “What do we do about it? It is still the same practices that really work,” before adding, “The next 100,000 deaths are baked in.”

England COVID Mutation 'Out of Control' Health Secretary Says – A new strain of coronavirus is "out of control" in parts of southern England, the U.K. health secretary has warned, adding that it has also been found as far away as Australia.Matt Hancock, was speaking the day after a stricter lockdown was announced for London and surrounding areas after scientists confirmed the existence of a new variantof the virus that could be up to 70 percent more transmissible. Speaking on Sunday morning political shows, Hancock said that people needed to act as though they have the virus in order to stop it spreading . "Unfortunately this virus, the new strain, was out of control, we've got to get it under control and the way we can do that, the only way you can do that is by restricting social contact and essentially—especially in tier 4 areas—everybody needs to behave as though they might well have the virus," he told Sky News' Sophy Ridge on Sunday.He repeated the assertions on the BBC's Andrew Marr show a short while later.How far the new variant has spread is currently unknown, though the health secretary told Sky News it had been discovered in other countries, including Denmark, the Netherlands and Australia, on the other side of the planet to Britain. The mutation, known as N501Y, means the new strain can spread faster, however, scientists say it does not appear to be deadlier and could still be stopped by vaccines.

What We Know About the New Covid-19 Strain in England – WSJ - Scientists are hurrying to understand why a new strain of the coronavirus that emerged in England in September appears to be spreading far more rapidly than earlier variants. The early conclusion, according to British scientists, is that the virus has mutated to change the so-called spike protein on the surface of the virus, increasing the protein’s ability to cling onto and enter human cells. These changes allow the mutation, known as N501Y, to spread 70% faster than earlier versions of the virus, early analysis suggests.  Viruses mutate all the time and coronaviruses less so than some others, such as the ones that cause influenza. Sometimes these accidental changes alter the attributes of the virus and sometimes not. Scientists have identified 23 genetic changes on the new variant, an unusually large number, some of which are associated with changes in the proteins the virus makes.The spike protein is located on the top of the spikes depicted on graphic representations of the virus and give it the crown-like appearance from which the coronaviruses get their name. The spike protein contains amino acids that use an enzyme in the body, called furin, to dissolve cell coatings and allow the virus to enter. Three main questions are now being investigated: Is the new variant more contagious, is it more likely to be fatal or cause serious illness, and is it more likely to defeat the body’s immune responses, including those encouraged by vaccines? The provisional answers to those questions, as outlined by British scientific advisers on Saturday, are yes, no and no. Patrick Vallance, the British government’s chief scientific adviser, said the variant had first occurred in September either in London—where it was identified on Sept. 21—or in the nearby county of Kent, where it was found on Sept. 20. By mid-November, 28% of cases in London were attributable to the new variant. In the week starting Dec. 9, it was responsible for 62% of cases in the capital.“It is becoming the dominant variant; it is beating all the others in terms of transmission,” he told a press conference on Saturday.A preliminary description of the variant,published online by scientists associated with a British effort to track genetic variations of the virus, suggested the new strain may have developed in someone suffering from chronic infection, possibly because of a weakened immune system.Mr. Vallance said the conclusions that the mutation was less dangerous and unlikely to compromise the effectiveness of vaccines were preliminary. He said there were theoretical reasons why the new variant might alter the immune response, though there was no evidence so far that was the case.“The working assumption is that the vaccine response should be adequate for this virus, but we need to keep vigilant about this,” he said.

 UK health officials announce 2nd new COVID-19 strain - Britain’s health secretary Matt Hancock alerted the United Kingdom of another new strain of COVID-19 circulating in the country after scientists announced the discovery of a second, "more transmissible" mutation of the novel coronavirus. "We’ve detected two cases of another new variant of the coronavirus here in the U.K.," Hancock said during a news conference Wednesday. "Both are contacts of cases who have traveled from South Africa over the past few weeks." Hancock said the country’s top scientists recently met with their South African colleagues in regard to the latest discovery. "This new variant is highly concerning because it is yet more transmissible and it appears to have mutated further," Hancock said. Hancock explained the country is now largely quarantining and monitoring cases throughout the U.K. The government also imposed travel restrictions from South Africa. Hancock urged any citizen who traveled to South Africa or who has been in contact with someone who traveled to South Africa in the past two weeks to quarantine immediately. Viruses mutate regularly, and scientists have found thousands of different mutations among samples of the virus causing COVID-19. But many of these changes have no effect on how easily the virus spreads or how severe symptoms are. Before the latest discovery, the U.S. CDC acknowledged the U.K. government’s discovery of the previous new strain, saying "this variant strain has been predicted to potentially be more rapidly transmissible than other circulating strains." "When you see something that is pretty prevalent in a place like the U.K. — there are also mutations that we’re seeing in South Africa — and given the travel throughout the world, I would not be surprised if it is already here," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, told PBS. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention echoed Fauci’s concern. "Ongoing travel between the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the high prevalence of this variant among current UK infections, increase the likelihood of importation," the CDC said in a statement. "Given the small fraction of US infections that have been sequenced, the variant could already be in the United States without having been detected."

Santa likely delivered coronavirus to nursing home, infecting 75 people - Santa Claus likely delivered the gift of COVID-19 to at least 75 residents and staff of a nursing home in Mol, Belgium. One person who was already receiving palliative care has died while another is struggling with severe symptoms. Fortunately, most others aren't yet exhibiting symptoms of infection. According to city officials, the managers of the care home made an "error in judgement." From CNN: The man who played Sinterklaas, who is the son of a resident, tested positive for coronavirus after his visit.He "was not feeling sick at the time of the visit" and "the activity was not cleared beforehand with the crisis center, otherwise negative advice would have been given," the municipality said[…]"Contrary to reports in the media, St. Nicholas did not visit every room. The management reassures us that the saint only visited common areas, including the seating areas," the municipality said."The saint maintained distance at all times from the residents, and didn't remain in any area longer than a few minutes. The saint did not hand out presents."

Half a million dead in Europe from COVID-19 pandemic - Today, Europe marks yet another grim milestone in the coronavirus pandemic. Half a million people have officially died of the virus across Europe, according to the figures published by Worldometers, which includes Russia in its European total.The actual number of COVID-19 deaths is likely far higher. An October 14study in the scientific journal Nature, examining excess deaths in 21 countries, found that the number of deaths above historical norms for January–June was around 20 percent higher than deaths officially attributed to COVID-19. If this is true for all of Europe, in fact there have been a further 100,000 deaths attributable to the pandemic.The marker of 300,000 deaths was passed near November 10, the 400,000 marker at the end of November. The next 100,000 deaths came in three weeks. As with the previous milestones, it will be noted briefly, if at all, on television news programs. Above all, no European government is proposing a serious policy to urgently address the growing death toll and advance a scientific response. Any measure restricting production, corporate profits and the wealth of the European financial elite is rejected out of hand. A paramedic walks out of a tent that was set up in front of the emergency ward of the Cremona hospital, northern Italy [Credit: Claudio Furlan/Lapresse via AP, file]More than 3,000 people are dying each day. Britain recorded more than 37,000 cases and 691 deaths yesterday. Monday saw over 350 deaths in France and 415 in Italy. Yesterday, German health departments reported 19,528 new cases and 731 deaths to the Robert Koch Institute. This makes last week by far the worst yet in Germany, with 175,314 infections and over 4,300 deaths. The virus is still spreading rapidly and is in fact accelerating. In December, France and the UK ended partial lockdowns, which had never closed non-essential production or schools, encouraging the population to travel for the holidays. In Britain, the Johnson government announced that shopping centers would be open 24 hours a day, to ensure that retailers’ most profitable period would not be impacted. In France, the R rate is now above 1, meaning the virus is again growing exponentially. The Macron government ended lockdown measures on December 15 though case numbers never fell below 10,000—twice the threshold it claimed was necessary to allow for loosening restrictions. There are now 15,000 to 20,000 cases per day.In Britain, the virus is spiraling out of control, with more than 30,000 cases per day. Its spread is being accelerated by the emergence of a new strain, 70 percent more infectious, that now makes up more than 60 percent of cases in southeastern England. This strain has already been recorded in Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, Denmark, and beyond.Scientific evaluations of the new strain estimate that it could increase the R rate by anywhere from 0.4 to 0.9. In an area with 10,000 daily cases, this would mean 4,000 to 9,000 new cases each day. It is unknown whether the new strain is more lethal, but a rapid growth in case numbers would more quickly overwhelm hospitals and thereby massively increase fatalities.

 New Covid-19 Surge Sweeps Across Latin America - Mexico City has ordered nonessential businesses closed for the holiday season as a rebound in Covid-19 cases threatens to overwhelm hospitals. Brazil, with the second-highest number of official Covid-19 deaths after the U.S., registered record rates of new infections in recent days. Parts of Peru are seeing testing positivity rates of nearly 100%. Latin America, with more deaths per capita during the pandemic than any other region, is suffering from a second surge of Covid-19, ending a period of several months where cases and deaths declined. The surge is particularly acute in the region’s two biggest countries, Mexico and Brazil. Daily deaths in Brazil topped 1,000 on Thursday for the first day since September, and the country posted roughly 70,000 new daily infections on Wednesday and Thursday, a record. In Mexico, the daily death toll has doubled to about 600 a day from about 320 in mid-October. “We urgently need to bend the curve of contagion,” said Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico City’s mayor, this week. Health authorities ordered the closure of nonessential businesses such as restaurants and shopping malls from Saturday until Jan. 10 across the capital and surrounding municipalities, home to some 22 million people. Cases are rising quickly in Colombia, Peru, Argentina and Chile, and even in Uruguay and Paraguay, two nations that had escaped relatively unharmed from the pandemic. Uruguay, which had only about 10 daily new infections in late September, registered more than 500 a day so far this past week. President Luis Lacalle Pou said the country would close its borders to visitors during the holiday season and limit crowds and some public transport. “The world’s second wave is our first wave,” he said. Paraguay has posted nearly 1,200 new cases a day in December compared with 150 in August, which officials say is already overwhelming hospitals in the poor, landlocked nation. Health Minister Julio Mazzoleni said the country is entering “a new, very difficult stage of the pandemic.” Colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere is partly to blame for the uptick in cases in Mexico by forcing more people indoors. But the more important factor across the region appears to be fatigue with social-distancing measures. In Brazil, people are increasingly gathering on the beach and at parties during the Southern Hemisphere summer. “People have completely let down their guard—they’re planning parties, traveling, and they will pay the price,” said Eliseu Waldman, an epidemiologist at the University of São Paulo.Latin America, with 8% of the world’s population, has accounted for roughly a third of global Covid-19 deaths. Brazil has registered more than 184,000 deaths, second to the U.S.’s 312,000. The true toll from the pandemic—including people who died from Covid-19 but weren’t included in countries’ official tolls—is far higher. The three countries with this year’s highest excess mortality—the number of people who have died compared with previous years—are all in Latin America: Peru, Ecuador and Mexico.

Rubber glove factories become COVID-19 epicentres in Malaysia - Workers are fighting the world’s largest medical glove manufacturer, Top Glove, over unsanitary working conditions that have led to the largest, active coronavirus hotspots in Malaysia. Damning exposures by workers have revealed sweltering and unsafe conditions, with lack of protections, no social distancing and packed dormitories. According to statistics from Malaysia’s Ministry of Health, 5,700 of Top Glove’s 11,215 employees at just one of its manufacturing centres have tested positive for coronavirus since November. For a number of days, the company’s 21,000 employees accounted for over half of Malaysia’s new cases. The company was forced to submit to staggered shutdowns of its factories, largely in the Meru region. Responsible for 60 percent of the world’s disposable gloves, the company reported on December 16 that it had tested 10,000 employees, of whom 93 percent had recovered, but declined to specify how many had tested positive. It also announced the reopening of its factories despite days earlier confirming its first COVID-19 death, 29-year-old security guard Yam Narayan Chaudhary, who was based at a manufacturing facility in Klang, 40 kilometres west of the capital Kuala Lumpur. Chaudhary died in a Selangor province hospital due to COVID-related pneumonia and lung fibrosis but was not admitted to the hospital for three days owing to the decisions of management. Why this occurred has not been explained, although it is of piece with Top Glove’s exploitative conditions. No condolences or information were passed on to his family in western Nepal. “Our whole family was very much shocked,” his brother Bhabindra told the New York Times. “He always tried to assure us that he is quite young and healthy, so nothing could happen to him with COVID. We feel it’s Top Glove’s failure that they are not able to protect their workers.”

  Deadliest week since COVID-19 pandemic began in Germany - Last week was by far the worst in the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany, with officially 175,314 infections and over 4,300 deaths (against 3,050 the previous week). Across Europe, the death toll exceeded the catastrophic half-million mark on Tuesday. After reports of deadly mass outbreaks in old people’s homes dominating the headlines in recent weeks, the “profits before lives” policy of recent months is now revealing its murderous consequences more and more clearly in hospitals. According to the Pforzheimer Zeitung, a hospital in Tettnang on Lake Constance halted admissions on December 10 because the virus had been detected in 34 people. Three infected patients had to be taken to Friedrichshafen, 13 kilometres away, due to severe symptoms. In the meantime, 84 staff and 26 patients have been infected—only five of the remaining patients tested negative. At the hospital in Wangen im Allgäu, which is currently treating 18 COVID-19 patients, 28 staff members—including eight doctors—are infected and in quarantine. In addition to COVID-19 cases, the clinic only treats emergencies and performs deliveries—although the virus is also particularly deadly for pregnant women. The hospital in Pfullendorf reports three infected staff members and has also imposed an admission ban. Meanwhile, in Saxony, the shortage of intensive care beds for COVID-19 patients is “significantly larger than officially reported,” broadcaster MDR reports. While the DIVI intensive care register shows 50 free intensive care beds for the districts of Bautzen, Dresden, Sächsische Schweiz Osterzgebirge, Görlitz and Meißen, according to the hospital control centre’s bed lists there are only about 20 available—less than half. One reason for this, according to the Görlitz hospital, was “staff who are ill or in quarantine, which means that free beds cannot be occupied.” According to a report by dpa press agency, the high death toll means corpses must now be stored temporarily in Zittau in eastern Saxony. The dead are being warehoused “in the flood support base” and will only be brought to the crematorium “when they are released for cremation,” the city of Zittau reported on Tuesday evening. In Hanau, Hesse, a refrigerated container for coronavirus corpses had already been put into operation last week at the city’s main cemetery to store bodies from the completely overloaded hospitals. In addition to the virus hotspots in Saxony, which have been overwhelmed by the pandemic, there are now districts in Bavaria, Thuringia and Brandenburg with 7-day incidences of between 500 and 680 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. In Bavaria, all intensive care beds are occupied in eight cities and districts. Since the devastating lack of staff there is exacerbating the situation, in a “cry for help” to the population, the counties in the metropolitan region of Nuremberg/Fürth/Erlangen are now looking for helpers to relieve the staff in hospitals. As reported by the Münchner Merkur, the “excess mortality due to coronavirus” in Bavaria was so great that “the population is shrinking for the first time in a long time.” Depending on the region, the death figures are on average between 6 and 18 percent higher than 2016 to 2019, the paper said.

 Britain descends into chaos as coronavirus crisis mounts - The COVID-19 death toll in Britain continues to rise inexorably, with predictions that National Health Service hospitals will be treating more coronavirus patients on Christmas Day than at any point in the pandemic. On Tuesday, 691 more people were announced dead from the virus. Yesterday this was topped with 744 deaths reported, the highest total since April 29. The 39,237 new coronavirus cases announced yesterday was the highest yet recorded in Britain. This carnage takes place under conditions in which the entire country is descending into chaos. Supermarkets such as Tesco are limiting purchases of toilet roll, eggs, rice and other staples, amid warning of fruit and vegetable shortages amid scenes of panic buying. Yesterday, at the port of Dover and across large parts of the county of Kent, thousands of truck drivers were still unable to return to their home countries on the European continent, despite an agreement with France to let COVID-tested drivers cross to Calais. As early as December 18, a 20-mile queue began forming on the M20 motorway and on the A20 leading into Dover. Much of the extra traffic was due to retailers seeking to get goods into the UK in time for Christmas amid problems at already full container ports and uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit talks between London and the European Union. Around 5,000 lorries are queued up in three separate locations in Kent. Many of the hauliers have spent days sleeping in their cabs with no access to basic supplies. Truck drivers scuffled with police officers at Dover yesterday. Drivers stood in pouring rain and strong winds chanting, “We want to go home.” One told the BBC, “We are very tired. We're staying in cars, we don't have a lot of food, no money. Police three days ago told us that testing will start soon, but they don't know when and that's why people are protesting”. Earlier, truckers clashed with police at the disused Manston airfield 18 miles from Dover. Around 3,800 lorries are parked up like sardines at Manston waiting to return home. They blockaded the A299 motorway in Kent yesterday morning in a mass protest. The UK must test every truck driver leaving the UK for France, after a highly infectious strain of COVID-19 was acknowledged by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson last week. On Tuesday evening, Johnson and President Emmanuel Macron reached agreement on a deal to reverse the unilateral 48-hour French ban on freight lorries travelling between Dover and Calais, as well as travel through the Channel Tunnel. Until January 6, only lorry drivers and French and EU citizens or residents who have an essential reason to travel and who show a negative test result less than 72 hours old will be allowed into France.

EU countries receive COVID-19 vaccines ahead of rollout -Countries in the European Union began receiving their first shipments of the COVID-19 vaccine this weekend ahead of a massive rollout planned for Sunday.Efforts will be underway Sunday to vaccinate vulnerable people and first-priority medical workers in some of the countries that experienced the brunt of the virus's first wave this spring, including the Czech Republic, Italy and Spain, The Associated Press reported. “It’s here, the good news at Christmas,” German Health Minister Jens Spahn said, according to the AP. “At this moment, trucks are underway across Europe, across Germany and its regions, to deliver the first vaccine. More deliveries will follow the day after tomorrow. This vaccine is the decisive key to end this pandemic.”The European bloc's 27 member nations have seen a combined 16 million coronavirus cases since the beginning of the pandemic, with 336,000 fatalities, the AP reported.Doses of about 10,000 per country began shipping out of Pfizer-BioNTech's manufacturing center in Belgium before Christmas.While the first shipments are relatively small in scale, the mass vaccination program is slated to begin in January and will focus on immunizing many more people across the EU. The EU has agreed to purchase up to 300 million Pfizer-BioNTech doses and millions more from other manufacturers such as Moderna.

Japan reports record-high 3,743 new COVID-19 cases - Japan confirmed 3,743 coronavirus cases on Thursday, marking the highest daily tally for a second straight day, as Tokyo and several other areas continued to report record numbers of infections amid growing concern over the strain on the medical system. The country’s cumulative total of confirmed cases topped 211,000, according to a Kyodo News tally based on official data. The death toll climbed to over 3,100, with 54 reported Thursday. A record of over 640 people had developed severe symptoms, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said. In Tokyo, 888 new cases were reported, exceeding the previous record of 821 logged on Dec. 17 and bringing the cumulative total in the capital to 54,018. Three prefectures adjacent to Tokyo also marked daily records, with 495 cases reported in Kanagawa, 251 in Saitama and 234 in Chiba. Outside the capital region, Aichi, Gifu and Kyoto prefectures also logged record numbers of infections. The monthly figure for infections in Tokyo in December has topped 13,000 and already surpassed the total for November, when the previous high of 9,850 was logged. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government has since Dec. 17 raised its alert regarding the strain on the medical system to the highest of four levels, and has asked residents to refrain from nonessential travel. Restaurants, bars and other establishments that serve alcohol have been asked to shorten their business hours by closing at 10 p.m. or earlier in a wide area of Tokyo, the hardest hit of the country’s 47 prefectures. Among the new cases in Tokyo on Thursday, people 65 or older numbered 93, while the number of severely ill patients based on Tokyo’s standards came to 73, up four from the previous day. People in their 20s made up the largest group at 240, followed by 184 for people in their 30s and 143 among people in their 40s.

South Korea, Japan, Indonesia Record Highest Daily Increases in COVID Cases - South Korea, Japan, and Indonesia recorded the highest daily increase in coronavirus cases Friday as a third wave of COVID-19 hit the countries. In South Korea 70% of the more than 1,200 new cases were in the greater Seoul area, where half the country's 52 million people live. In Japan, with 884 cases reported Friday nationwide, Tokyo had the largest number of infections. Indonesia reported its biggest daily rise in deaths, with 258 fatalities and 7,259 infections, bringing the country’s total numbers to 20,847 and 700,097, respectively. Mexico on Thursday became the first Latin American country to launch a COVID-19 vaccination initiative, offering hope to a nation that has lost more than 120,000 people to the pandemic. A 59-year-old head nurse at the intensive care unit at Mexico City’s Ruben Lenero hospital was the first to get the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, in keeping with the country’s strategy to focus first on health care workers. “This is the best gift that I could have received in 2020,” Ramirez said after being inoculated in a ceremony broadcast by national media. Chile will immediately start inoculations of health care workers after receiving the first 10,000 doses of a 10 million-dose order of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine Thursday, officials said. Also Thursday, Costa Rica was preparing to vaccinate two senior citizens in a home near San Jose, while Argentina received about 300,000 doses of Russia's Sputnik V vaccine. The United States is about to complete its second week of vaccinations with about 1 million inoculations, mainly among health care workers and elderly residents of nursing homes. The numbers, however, are far short of the goal set by Operation Warp Speed, the federal government’s effort to mass produce millions of doses of vaccines, to inoculate 20 million Americans by the end of the year. U.S. Operation Warp Speed chief adviser Dr. Moncef Slaoui has warned that it would take longer to administer the doses. The Trump administration has reached a deal worth $2 billion to secure an additional 100 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, which would boost the nation’s supply to 200 million doses by mid-July.

Global COVID-19 cases surpass 80 million - The total number of global coronavirus cases on Saturday surpassed 80 million as countries around the world are experiencing surges of the disease amid the holiday season. According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, about 472,000 new COVID-19 cases were recorded on Christmas Day globally, with the number of deaths due to the virus now standing at more than 1.75 million. The U.S. far surpasses other countries in the number of total cases with more than 18.8 million infections as of Saturday. The U.S. is followed by India with nearly 10.2 million cases and Brazil, which has recorded 7.4 million infections. The U.S. also leads the world in coronavirus-related deaths with more than 330,000, followed by Brazil at 190,488 and India at 147,343. The grim milestone comes as some countries are now battling a new strain of the virus that British scientists this week found to be 56 percent more contagious than the original. The first reported cases of the new strain were found in the United Kingdom, prompting several European countries and others around the world to limit foreign travel. On Saturday, Japan announced that it would temporarily ban nonresident foreign nationals from entering the country, citing the risk of the new COVID-19 strain. Japanese officials confirmed that a more contagious strain of the virus from the U.K. had entered the country, with the first detected cases involving passengers arriving from Britain. Despite the surges in coronavirus infections and deaths, the approval of vaccines in several countries could signal an eventual end to the pandemic.

Drinking water significant source of microplastics in human diet  Emerging environmental contaminants, both chemicals and particulates, have been a concern for risk scientists for many years. Methods for reducing health and environmental risks from particles are still evolving. Micro/nanoplastic particles are one environmental contaminant that has recently received research and media attention, and scientists are only beginning to study their potential for adverse environmental and human health effects. Scott Coffin, Ph.D., California State Water Resources Control Board, will present the world's first regulatory investigation of microplastics in drinking water. His presentation, "Microplastics in drinking water: California's path towards assessing risks and developing regulations," outlines the state's ongoing implementation efforts of a 2018 Senate Bill, that require the State Water Resources Control Board to i) standardize the definition, ii) develop measurement methods for their presence in drinking water, iii) monitor for microplastics in drinking water for four years and publicly disclose the results, iv) consider a health-based guidance level to aid consumer interpretations of the results and v) accredit laboratories to analyze microplastics. In New York, researchers detected microplastics in the municipal tap water. James McGrath, University of Rochester, tested water samples from the 30-mile route of the Hemlock Lake water production facility to Georgen Hall on the University of Rochester campus. McGrath's study, "Silicon nanomembranes for the evaluation of microplastic entrainment along a municipal water delivery route," used tools and methods that are easier than current protocols for the capture and assessment of microplastics. The nanomembrane filtration tools enable rapid detection of microplastics and other debris. Despite the Hemlock Lake facility producing nearly debris-free water, entrainment increased the amount of debris along the route and the water delivered to the Hall was polluted with large amounts of?microdebris, including plastics.?Broad surveillance, as demonstrated in this study, will need to be implemented to curb the growing level of pollution from plastics.

Big Oil Evaded Regulation And Plastic Pellets Kept Spilling - Look on the side of a highway sometime and you might see them. Or along the railroad tracks, or a stream. Maybe even between your toes at the beach. Tiny pearl-shaped pieces of plastic, known as pellets, are the building blocks for almost everything plastic, and they’re everywhere. They’ve spilled out of petrochemical plants, rail cars, shipping containers and trucks. Large spills have soiled beaches in Louisiana and South Carolina. New research suggests more than 230,000 tons of pellets enter the ocean each year, contaminating the water and sickening birds, fish and other wildlife. The oil and plastic industry, which makes the pellets, says it has programs in place to prevent any spills. But NPR and FRONTLINE found top officials have known about the problem for decades, even as they successfully fended off regulation that might have kept them in check. The issue first came to a head back in February 1990. Oil and gas spills were already heavily regulated, but spills of pellets, made from oil and gas, were not — and still aren’t. And that year, the EPA sent a troubling report to Congress. It found spilled pellets had become “ubiquitous” in the environment. It singled out the oil and gas industry, pellet manufacturers and transporters as possible culprits in the spills, which it said were harming wildlife. Pellets are “the least conspicuous and therefore more often overlooked component of plastic debris,” the report found. “These are frequently ingested by marine life and are also found in substantial quantities on beaches.” A month later, that report had made its way to the desks of top executives at the nation’s largest oil, gas and chemical companies. It’s one of thousands of documents the industry turned over in the 1990s as part of a series of lawsuits. And buried next to it is an internal memo written by the industry’s most powerful trade group at the time, the Society of the Plastics Industry. It was a warning — written to top executives at Exxon, Chevron, Dow, DuPont and others. The EPA is considering regulating companies that make and use pellets, the memo says, adding that the EPA might start requiring companies to have permits to use and dispose of pellets. “I would strongly urge you to evaluate any mitigation measures,” wrote top industry official, Roy Gottesman. Then, the memo offered the executives a solution. “It may be possible to institute voluntary programs to address the plastic pellets issue,” it says. “But unless this occurs, it is likely the EPA will act independently.”

Stuck in a Hotel During a Christmas Pandemic, Neskantaga Members Wait for Water Crisis to End – CBC Nine-year-old Bedahbun 'Bee' Moonias can't bring herself to drink the running water in her Thunder Bay, Ont., hotel room. "Since we can't drink the tap water back in Neskantaga, I'm scared to use the tap water here to drink it," Moonias said. "So I use water bottles." Moonias has spent her whole life worrying about the water flowing from her faucets back home in Neskantaga First Nation, a remote fly-in Ontario community about 450 kilometres north of Thunder Bay. Neskantaga has the longest-duration boil water advisory of any reserve in the country — 25 years and counting. "Sometimes, I feel like we don't exist," Moonias said. "Like, nobody knows that we don't have no clean water. Like, we're just ghosts and we're just put in a drawer, in a box." Moonias and nearly 300 other Neskantaga members have been staying at the Victoria Inn Hotel in Thunder Bay since an oily sheen was detected in their reservoir on Oct. 19 and running water was shut off. Before the film was deemed non-toxic, its discovery left residents with a choice: go without water or evacuate during a pandemic. They decided the safest option was to pack their bags. Now, more than 40 days later, the evacuation is taking a toll, but community members say they are determined to maintain some kind of normal life away from home until clean drinking water starts flowing in Neskantaga for the first time this century. At chief and council's request, all the rooms at the Victoria Inn are being rented by the federal government for Neskantaga members to protect them from the COVID-19 pandemic. Elder Laura Sakanee spends her days sitting in her wheelchair, watching people come and go. "We miss our home so badly," Sakanee said. "We just left everything in there, even our moose meat. And I filled up my freezer before we left."

Southeast Ohio Communities Receive $18.1 Million in Financing from Ohio EPA to Improve Wastewater, Drinking Water Infrastructure – Communities in Southeast Ohio are receiving a total of $18.1 million in low-interest and principal forgiveness funding from Ohio EPA to improve wastewater and drinking water infrastructure and make other water quality improvements. The loans were approved between July 1 and Sept. 30, 2020. The lower interest rates and principal forgiveness will save these communities more than $10.9 million. Statewide, Ohio EPA awarded approximately $122.9 million in loans during the third quarter of 2020, including $11.4 million in principal forgiveness. Combined, Ohio communities will save more than $28 million when compared to market-rate loans. The projects are improving Ohio’s surface water quality and the reliability and quality of Ohio drinking water systems. This funding includes assistance to local health districts to help low-income property owners repair or replace failing household sewage treatment systems. Thus far for 2020, Ohio EPA has awarded assistance for home septic treatment to 75 counties and communities throughout the state.

Wood burners triple harmful indoor air pollution, study finds - Wood burners triple the level of harmful pollution particles inside homes and should be sold with a health warning, says scientists, who also advise that they should not be used around elderly people or children. The tiny particles flood into the room when the burner doors are opened for refuelling, a study found. Furthermore, people who load in wood twice or more in an evening are exposed to pollution spikes two to four times higher than those who refuel once or not at all. The particles can pass through the lungs and into the body and have beenlinked to a wide range of health damage, particularly in younger and older people. The research was conducted in 19 homes in Sheffield over the course of a month at the start of 2020. The wood burners used were all models certified by the government as “smoke exempt appliances”, meaning they produce less smoke. But this and the new EcoDesign standard, due to become compulsory by 2022, only assess outdoor pollution. The government is phasing out the sale of wet wood, which produces more smoke, but the people in the study used only dry, seasoned wood. Wood and coal burning in homes is estimated to cause almost 40% of outdoor tiny particle pollution, but the new research is among the first to analyse indoor pollution in real-life settings. Almost 16% of people in the south-east of England use wood fuel, and 18% in Northern Ireland, according to 2016 government data, and about 175,000 wood burners are sold annually. “Our findings are a cause for concern,” said Rohit Chakraborty, of the University of Sheffield, who led the study. “It is recommended that people living with those particularly susceptible to air pollution, such as children, the elderly or vulnerable, avoid using wood-burning stoves. If people want to use them, we recommend minimising the time the stove is open during lighting or refuelling.” Wood burners cause less indoor pollution than open fires. “But every time you open the door, you reduce the stove to an open fire and particulate matter floods into the home,” he said. The peaks take an hour or two to dissipate. “But by the time it comes down, someone opens the door again to refuel and you get spike after spike,” Chakraborty said. Some burners have filters, but these only reduce the pollution being vented outside.

 A little-known threat: Infectious microbes in wildfire smoke - Smoke from the growing number of annual wildfires across the western United States and Australia has led to lengthy periods of unhealthy and hazardous air quality for millions of people living in these regions. In a Perspective, Leda Kobziar and George Thompson III highlight a little-known and poorly understood threat potentially lurking in the plumes - infectious microbes. According to Kobziar and Thompson, wildfire smoke contains living microbes - bacteria and fungi known to affect human health - aerosolized from burning materials such as soils, detritus and wild woods and transported in smoke plumes. However, while the pulmonary and cardiovascular consequences of smoke exposure are well known and recognized, the potential for wildfire smoke to be a source of infection has been overlooked and remains unaddressed in public health and wildfire science. To date, very little research has been done to determine whether the transport of smoke-borne microbes poses a health risk, in addition to the risk known from particulate inhalation, despite compelling evidence that shows increasing rates of certain fungal infections in areas with increased levels of wildfire smoke. Kobziar and Thompson argue that the potential for a wildfire's microbial content to affect humans who breathe in smoke, particularly from large fires and over long periods, is appreciable. Thus, atmospheric and public health sciences must expand their focus to include the potential impact of smoke's microbial cargo on human populations - a goal that is especially relevant where smokey skies are more likely to become a seasonal norm rather than a rare event, write the authors.

Wildfires May Worsen Asthma in the Western United States - Wildfire activity has increasingly threatened life in the western United States over the past several decades. Many of this year's record-setting wildfires raged over hundreds of thousands of acres. However, one of their most dangerous and understudied effects is too small to perceive with the naked eye: the tiny particles that can be inhaled deeply into the lungs. New research suggests that by the 2050s, each fire season in the region may cause an additional 155,000 asthma-related emergency room visits and hospitalizations and $850 million more in health care costs compared with today. The new study predicts that parts of northern Idaho, western Montana, and the coasts of Oregon and Washington may experience the highest rates of increased asthma events. Jennifer Stowell, a postdoctoral associate in climate and health at the Boston University School of Public Health, and her team presented their findings at AGU's Fall Meeting 2020.  "Scientists think that wildfire smoke is more toxic than just the normal air that we breathe. We're trying to better characterize that and understand what biological mechanisms might be behind that," Stowell said. "The closer we can get to modeling these things, the better equipped we will be as far as policy and preparing and planning."When a substance burns, particles are released into the air. The size and composition of those particles differ on the basis of what material is being burned. The new research considers fine particulate matter (PM2.5) — particles small enough to be inhaled deeply into the lungs, cause inflammation, and worsen asthma. Some fine particulate matter may even enter the bloodstream.  Some populations may be disproportionately affected by wildfire smoke, including people who work outdoors and those without access to air filtration systems, said Christine Wiedinmyer, an associate director of science at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, who was not involved in the new research. Wiedinmyer said she expects that more research will emerge on the effects of wildfire smoke on other aspects of human health, like mental health, cardiovascular complications, diabetes, and low birth weight.

Potentially damaging surface ozone levels rose in lockdown -   Less traffic on the roads during the first lockdown led to a reduction in air pollution but may have caused potentially damaging surface ozone levels to rise, a new study has revealed. The study - led by the University of York - shows levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) down on average across the UK by 42 per cent, but surface ozone (O3) increased by 11 per cent on average. Surface, or ground-level ozone, can trigger a variety of health problems, particularly for children, the elderly, and people of all ages who have lung diseases such as asthma. Scientists believe our warm and sunny spring weather may have been a contributing factor. The report concludes that if the Covid-19 lockdown is taken as an example of how air quality will respond to future reductions in vehicle emissions - with more electric vehicles being introduced - it serves as a warning that the problem of O3 must also be considered. Professor James Lee from the Department of Chemistry and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science said during the first lockdown levels of O3 were the worst in the South of England. Professor Lee added: "The problem is being created by the change in chemistry between NOx (nitrogen oxide) and O3. The main reason is the change in the nitrogen dioxide levels but the warm sunny weather in April and May also increased the ozone level. As a result we found UV radiation across the UK was higher in 2020 compared to previous years, with the largest increases in southern England. "London, Chilton in Oxfordshire and Camborne in Cambridgeshire saw increases of around 50% compared to previous years, with Glasgow and Inverness showing smaller increases of around 30%. "These results are a cautionary tale. As well as looking at how we reduce levels of nitrogen dioxide by cutting diesel and petrol emissions, we also need to keep an eye on what is happening with ozone so we don't create other forms of pollution dangerous to human health."

Governors sign pact to help reduce transportation pollution (AP) — The governors of three New England states and the mayor of Washington, D.C., have signed a regional pact aimed at dramatically reducing transportation pollution — an agreement they hope other states will eventually join. The Transportation and Climate Initiative Program is designed to reduce motor vehicle emissions by at least 26% by 2032. The initiative was signed Monday by Republican Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker as well as Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont, Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo and Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser — all Democrats. The states account for about 73% of the transportation emissions and 76% of the vehicles in New England. The governors of other New England states — New Hampshire, Maine and Vermont — have expressed skepticism about the program, in part over fears that it amounts to a gas tax or a tax on carbon. In New England, transportation is responsible for over 40% of greenhouse gas emissions. Exposure to air pollution can worsen lung and heart ailments, cause asthma attacks and increase the risk of a stroke or other serious health condition. The initiative will require large gasoline and diesel fuel suppliers to purchase “allowances” for the pollution caused by the use of the fuels they sell in the region. The number of emission allowances would decline each year, while generating billions for states to invest in carbon-reducing transportation options — like public transportation; zero-emission buses, cars, and trucks; electric vehicle charging stations; high speed wireless internet in rural and low-income areas to allow for teleworking; roads and bridges repairs; and safer bike lanes and sidewalks.

Very poor air quality reported in Mumbai as severe cold wave grips North India - Cold conditions have intensified in parts of North India beginning Friday, December 18, 2020, resulting in poor to very poor air quality in Mumbai, while Delhi registered its lowest minimum temperature of the season. The cold wave is forecast to continue until Monday, December 21, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).​ The cold conditions started intensifying on Friday, producing a dense fog that engulfed many states in the region. On the same day, Delhi recorded its lowest minimum temperature of the season so far, as the mercury dipped to 4 °C (39.2 °F). On Saturday, Chandigarh, Amritsar, Karnal, and national capital Delhi were colder than Shimla, as well as other areas in the plains of the region such as Ludhiana, Patiala, and Hisar Chandigarh registered 4.3 °C (39.7 °F), while Shimla had a low of 4.4 °C (39.9 °F). Temperatures in Amritsar, Ludhiana, Karnal, and Hisar pummeled to 0.6 °C (33 °F), 2.8 °C (37 °F), 2.3 °C (36.1 °F), and 2.8 °C (37.4 °F), respectively. Manmohan Singh, director of Shimla's Meteorological Office, said the Himachal capital is having colder night temperatures than that of the plains. "This is a normal phenomenon and occurs mainly due to settling of inversion layer on mountain tops." In Mumbai, many parts of the city reported poor to very poor quality of air due to the ongoing cold wave in the north. Bandra Kurla Complex had the poorest air quality with an Air Quality Index of 362, followed by Navi Mumbai with 329-- both in the very poor category. "The poor air quality is primarily because of the cold wave which is likely to continue for at least two-three days," explained a spokesperson from the System of Air Quality Weather Forecasting and Research. "At the same time, now the airflow has changed and more wind is coming in from the land, rather than the sea. The air quality from the land is poorer." The IMD said cold conditions will continue to prevail over the north until Monday, with temperatures likely to increase by a few notches.

Deadly cold wave continues to sweep through North India - Northern India continues to shiver through a severe cold wave as the chilly weather conditions are forecast over the region in the next three days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). One person reportedly died due to the harsh temperatures in Uttar Pradesh, where a dense fog blanketed isolated areas. Icy winds gripped North India on Tuesday, December 22, while cold wave conditions are expected in parts of Delhi over the next three days as the minimum temperature is forecast to plummet to 3 to 4 °C (37.4 to 39.2 °F).Moderate to dense fog is also predicted during the period, IMD added. In Uttar Pradesh, cold weather conditions generated a dense fog that enveloped isolated areas. A 75-year-old woman reportedly lost her life due to the cold.On Tuesday, December 22, the Safdarjung Observatory recorded a minimum of 5.3 °C (41.5 °F), while on Sunday, December 20, the observatory registered the season's lowest temperature of 3.4 °C (38.1 °F)Meanwhile, maximum temperatures settled at 23.5 °C (74.3 °F). "After the Western Disturbance withdraws on Tuesday, the temperatures are expected to drop again," said Mahesh Palawat with Skymet Weather. Chilly conditions also swept through Kashmir as the minimum temperature remained below freezing across the valley, even as the Met Office predicted dry and cold weather with a bout of light to moderate snowfall until the weekend.

 Unusual winter storm brings heavy snow and record temperatures to North America, over 220 000 households without power -The season's first official winter storm has brought heavy snow and strong winds to North America, particularly affecting British Columbia, Canada as more than 220 000 households lost access to electricity on Monday, December 21, 2020. The storm was also responsible for the unusual record-breaking temperatures in Kelowna, as well as in Washington State, where above-average temperatures between 10 and 15 °C (50 and 59 °F) were recorded. The storm brought harsh winds and heavy snow to southern British Columbia, resulting in widespread power outages. As of Tuesday, December 22, power was restored to about 220 000 homes, according to a statement from BC Hydro.Around 19 600 households in the Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, the Gulf Islands, and the southern Interior remain without electricity."BC Hydro has all available crews and contractor crews working around the clock to restore power; however, the damage is extensive," the utility company stated."[The] heavy, wet snow snowfall added weight to branches and trees, which caused them to break and come into contact with BC Hydro's electrical equipment."Snowfall and high winds also prompted closures of highways and cancellation of ferry services.At least 0.5 m (1.6 feet) of snow blanketed the Coquihalla, leading to dozens of crashes and vehicular accidents. Among the hardest-hit areas was Larson Hill, where up to 0.6 m (2 feet) of snow fell.

Blizzard conditions hit Midwest as powerful winter storm threatens East Coast, U.S. --A powerful winter storm brought blizzard conditions to the U.S. Midwest on Wednesday, December 23, 2020, and is set to threaten much of the East Coast on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, December 24 and 25. Heavy rains and the existing melting snow from last week's storm pose a flooding risk to mid-Atlantic and New England, while severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible in the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).Blizzard warnings were in force across much of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday night, with winds over 105 km/h (65 mph) reported in parts of the Dakotas, impacting holiday travelers as road conditions were rough in some areas.Winter storm warnings were also in place for Minnesota's Twin Cities, with near white-out conditions expected.Hundreds of car crashes were reported, as well as stalled and spun-out vehicles, from Wednesday afternoon to evening, according to Sargeant Jesse Grabow, spokesman for Northwestern, West Central, and Central Minnesota State Patrol.With most of the state of Minnesota under a Blizzard Warning, the weather quickly turned from blustery to freezing rain sleet and then to heavy snow with whiteout conditions in less than an hour on December 23.The video below shows what was being called a several dozen multi-vehicle pileup on Interstate 94 near Albertville, MN. Interstate 94 was shut down in both directions in this area for much of the afternoon and evening as crews worked late into the evening to try and clear the scene."Troopers and other law enforcement along with first responders continue to respond to stuck & stranded motorists throughout parts of MN into the night. Please take note of any no travel advisories and stay safe," said Grabow.Minnesota governor Tim Walz has given authority to the state's National Guard to provide emergency assistance for drivers who were stranded in the winter storm.

Extreme Heat and the Border Wall Are Killing People - The remains of at least 214 people who died attempting to cross the Mexico-Arizona border have been recovered so far in 2020, and advocates blame extreme heat, The Associated Press reports. The figure is just 10 shy of the overall annual record from 2010, according to the nonprofit Humane Bordersand the Pima County Medical Examiner's Office, which together map recoveries of human remains. This year saw extreme heat — a hallmark signal of human-caused climate change — across the American West.Phoenix, Arizona endured its hottest summer on record with 144 days in triple digits and an average daily temperature around 110°F throughout July and August.Those months were also the state's driest on record. Trump's border wall also likely contributed to the uptick in deaths. "The wall has sent a lot of people to rough terrain in our area," Santa Cruz County Sheriff Tony Estrada, a critic of the president and advocate for greater compassion in immigration policy whose jurisdiction includes Nogales, Arizona, told The Associated Press. "It's like driving livestock into a canyon where they ultimately die."As reported by The Associated Press:In southern Arizona, No More Deaths and similar humanitarian groups leave water jugs and other provisions in remote places. The group gained national attention when one of its members was tried and acquitted last year of harboring migrants.[Tony] Estrada, the Santa Cruz County sheriff, said he's worried officials may see higher numbers of deaths next year if big groups of migrants surge to the border, hoping Joe Biden's administration is more welcoming."These people will keep coming because most of them have nothing back home," Estrada said.

Lyme disease-carrying ticks may invade new territory in the Midwest - Black-legged ticks may soon expand their territory across the midwestern U.S., carrying Lyme disease with them, a new study finds.  The study researchers created a timeline of when and where the black-legged tick (Ixodes scapularis) has spread since the 1960s, when the parasitic arachnid was first detected in Wisconsin and Minnesota. The team pinpointed several environmental factors that help the ticks migrate from place to place, and using this data, they predicted where ticks would go next.By the end of 2021, the black-legged tick will likely be detected in 42 additional counties in the Midwest, the model predicted. And with them, they'll bring the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, the microbe that causes Lyme disease. The bacteria causes a rash that can linger in the skin for about a month. The infection can then spread to the rest of the body, causing aches, fatigue and fever. Without treatment, Lyme disease can cause tingling in the limbs, arthritis and neurological changes, such as memory loss and paralysis.   "Ticks are thought to be the sole vector of Lyme disease to humans," with I. scapularisbeing the most significant, study author Allison Gardner, a professor of biology and ecology at the University of Maine, told Live Science. Because some symptoms of Lyme disease overlap with those of other diseases, such as shingles, it's important for doctors to be aware of tick populations nearby to suspect Lyme disease, Gardner said. If identified quickly, most cases of Lyme disease can be treated with a few weeks of antibiotics,according to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

“Snake Infested” Sea Foam Is Covering Large Portions Of Coastal Australia -- Local residents of New South Wales and Queensland, Australia have reported that recent storms have brought in large amounts of sea foam on the beaches and nearby towns.However, experts are warning against exploring or playing in the foam because there are sea snakes and other creatures lurking around in there. There are 32 species of poisonous sea snakes around Australia, and their bites require antivenom. There also could possibly be dangerous trash strewn around in the foam. The water can also contain pollutants that could be toxic to humans and animals.Nathan Fife, the Gold Coast lifesaving services supervisor at Surf Lifesaving Australia, told Guardian Australia, “There’s been trees and things like that have washed up. I think there was half a cow that washed up at the beach yesterday, so make sure what’s in front of you — there are trees and logs floating around, so please be careful.” Sea foam is created by the agitation of seawater, especially when it contains higher concentrations of dissolved organic matter (including proteins, lignins, and lipids) derived from sources such as the offshore breakdown of algal blooms. These compounds can act as surfactants or foaming agents. As the seawater is churned by breaking waves in the surf zone adjacent to the shore, the surfactants under these turbulent conditions trap air, forming persistent bubbles that stick to each other through surface tension. Sea foam is a global phenomenon and it varies depending on location and the potential influence of the surrounding marine, freshwater, and/or terrestrial environments. Due to its low density and persistence, foam can be blown by strong on-shore winds from the beach far inland.

Fatal Skin Disease in Dolphins Linked to the Climate Crisis -- A groundbreaking international study has linked a potentially-fatal skin disease in dolphins to the climate crisis, and scientists predict that it's only going to get worse. Dolphins around the world developed "fresh-water skin disease (FWSD)" when influxes of freshwater drastically reduced the salinity of coastal waters, causing the cetaceans' skin to take on water to the point of cells bursting, explained Pádraig Duignan, chief pathologist at The Marine Mammal Center (TMMC) in Sausalito, CA. Duignan and his fellow researchers identified the novel skin disease by focusing on two separate dolphin die-offs that happened in 2007 and 2009. "They were having these die-offs in dolphins, and we didn't know what they were," Duignan said. "We couldn't find a link to any disease that had been described in the literature before." Searching for underlying causes, Duignan and his co-authors examined the skin and lesions of dolphins who had died with this condition. They found that it was not a viral disease, one of the initial hypotheses. Access to long-term physico-chemical water quality data from permanent monitoring systems revealed the surprising culprit: freshwater. It turns out that "sudden, dramatic and prolonged" exposure to freshwater causes devastating skin damage in dolphins that the researchers have since called FWSD, said Nahiid Stephens, second author on the study and veterinary pathology lecturer at Murdoch University in Perth, Western Australia. Because dolphins have evolved over millennia to live in marine environments, they cannot adapt to such drastic changes to salinity, Stephens explained. When inundated with freshwater, the dolphins' skin cells become dull as they start to take on water through osmosis. The cells swell and inflame until some pop and create holes, in a few days at most, Duignan told EcoWatch. The holes turn into ulcers and lesions, which are a complete breach in the skin, within a few weeks. The skin no longer can serve as a healthy barrier against the outside world, exposing body tissues and allowing for a loss of fluids, salts, electrolytes and essential elements, he added. Loss of essential solutes and proteins can lead to organ dysfunction, shock and death. Badly damaged skin can also open the door for secondary opportunistic infectious organisms such as fungi, bacteria, and algae, Stephens said. Both researchers compared the skin lesions to a severe third-degree burn. "Some of these animals lose 70% of their skin. There's no way back from that in the wild," Duignan said.

Light Pollution Is Causing Birds to Nest Earlier, Mitigating Some Effects of Climate Change -Light pollution from artificial sources at night disrupts how animals process their environment, and it's triggered crashes in insect populations, an uptick of migratory birds colliding into buildings and even changes in underwater ecosystems.In a new discovery, scientists found that birds living in areas with high light pollution are nesting around a month earlier than usual, reports Drew Higgins for Scientific American. This shift could spell bad news since chicks would hatch before springtime's peak, leaving the parents without abundant resources to care for their hatchlings. But in a surprising twist, the researchers found that birds exposed to light had better reproductive success, the team reported last month in Nature. After months of short days and long nights, spring starts to emerge as daylight hours grow longer. The lengthening days signal to birds when they should breed and lay their new clutch of eggs, and they match up their timing so that their chicks are born when the springtime's bounty is at its peak. But as a result of warming temperatures, spring is springing earlier than usual. Now, if birds don't also breed early, they'll be late to the game, leaving them with fewer resources and a lower chance of their chicks' survival, Maya L. Kapoor reported for High Country News in 2017.Scientists have noticed that some birds are moving their breeding time up a little earlier to adjust to the effects of a warming climate, Sarah Kennedy reported for Yale Climate Connections in 2018. This new study suggests that light pollution could actually give birds another signal to start breeding earlier, which could be helping them survive.The team collected data on more than 58,000 nests from 142  different species across North America by looking at a giant data set compiled by citizen scientists through NestWatch, a program that monitors the bird reproduction. The data revealed that in open environments, birds are nesting up to a month earlier than usual. And in forested areas where light is reduced, it's up to 18 days earlier, according to a press release.

Nearly 90% of Land Animals Could Lose Habitat by 2050, Study Finds -Unless global food systems are transformed, the world could face severe ecological damage in just a few decades. A recent study in Nature Sustainability suggests that nearly 90% of land animals could lose some of their habitat by 2050 if current agricultural systems continue as is. "We need to change what we eat and how it is produced if we are going to save wildlife on a global scale," said David Williams, one of the study's lead authors, according to The Guardian. Without a proactive policy, current agricultural systems could cause the loss of millions of square kilometers of natural ecosystems. From eating less meat to reducing food waste, the study examined how potential changes could make an impact on food systems in various geographical regions. The team from the University of Leeds and the University of Oxford designed a geographically specific model for agricultural land use, adding outputs with species-specific habitat preferences for almost 20,000 species of terrestrial vertebrates, according to the study. "Nearly 1,300 species are likely to lose at least a quarter of their remaining habitat, and hundreds could lose at least half," Williams said according to Science Daily. "This makes them far more likely to go extinct." The majority of this loss is projected to take place in sub-Saharan Africa, the Atlantic Rainforest of Brazil, eastern Argentina, and parts of South and Southeast Asia, Yale Environment 360 reported. The study provides both a tool for scientists to estimate how agriculture expansion will contribute to species and biodiversity loss and suggests solutions food systems could undertake for the transformation necessary. The study's results "highlight the importance of proactive efforts to safeguard biodiversity by reducing demand for agricultural land," Michael Clark, another lead author of the study said, as reported by Science Daily.

Portugal outrage after Spanish hunters massacre 500 wild animals - Portuguese officials have expressed outrage at the massacre of more than 500 deer and wild boar in a hunting zone in the centre of the country. Environment Minister João Fernandes said the killing by 16 Spanish hunters was "vile" and an "environmental crime" that should be prosecuted. Pictures of the slaughter were shared on social media. Hunting individual animals is allowed but in this incident most of the zone's deer population are said to have died. The killing is thought to have taken place on a farm in the Torrebela tourist hunting zone, near Azambuja, about 40km (24 miles) from the Portuguese capital Lisbon on 17 and 18 December. The 1,100ha (2,700-acre) farm is described as being walled in, meaning that the 540 animals had no means of escape from their killers. The Environment Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that "the reports and news about the indiscriminate slaughter of animals... have nothing to do with hunting, understood as a practice that can contribute to the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystems". 

Revealed: all 27 monkeys held at Nasa research center killed on single day in 2019 -Every monkey held by Nasa was put to death on a single day last year, documents obtained by the Guardian show, in a move that has enraged animal welfare campaigners. A total of 27 primates were euthanized by administrated drugs on 2 February last year at Nasa’s Ames research center in California’s Silicon Valley, it has emerged. The monkeys were ageing and 21 of them had Parkinson’s, according to documents released under freedom of information laws. The decision to kill off the animals rather than move them to a sanctuary has been condemned by animal rights advocates and other observers. The primates “were suffering the ethological deprivations and frustrations inherent in laboratory life”, said John Gluck, an expert in animal ethics at the University of New Mexico. Gluck added the monkeys were “apparently not considered worthy of a chance at a sanctuary life. Not even a try? Disposal instead of the expression of simple decency. Shame on those responsible.” Kathleen Rice, a US House representative, has written to Jim Bridenstine, Nasa’s administrator, to demand an explanation for the deaths. Rice, a New York Democrat, said she has been pushing for US government researchers to consider “humane retirement policies” for animals used in research. “I look forward to an explanation from administrator Bridenstine on why these animals were forced to waste away in captivity and be euthanized rather than live out their lives in a sanctuary,” Rice told the Guardian.

Animal Rights Activist Punks Maria Bartiromo By Posing As Meat Company CEO - Fox News host Maria Bartiromo was apparently out-foxed by an animal rights activist who posed as a meat company CEO.On Wednesday’s episode of “Mornings With Maria,” Bartiromo featured an interview she said was with Dennis Organ, the new CEO and president of pork industry giant Smithfield Foods.However, the interview was actually with Matt Johnson, an activist for the animal rights network Direct Action Everywhere.While posing as Organ, Johnson told viewers that factory farms like the ones operated by Smithfield are likely breeding grounds for future pandemics.When Bartiromo asked about Smithfield’s processing plant in South Dakota ― the site of a major COVID-19 outbreak earlier this year ― Johnson posing as Organ told her that the company farms are “petri dishes for new diseases” and noted that hog farming also “causes immense damage to our air and waterways.”Johnson then claimed that Smithfield would attempt to mitigate the environmental impacts of its industry by spending “half a billion dollars a year starting in 2021.” Although Bartiromo can be seen rolling her eyes at some of the comments Johnson made, she didn’t appear to suspect she was the victim of a prank. That is, until the end of her show when she admitted she’d been duped.

Trump Administration Sued Over 'Outrageous Assault' on Tongass National Forest Protections - A coalition of Indigenous groups, businesses, and conservation organizations on Wednesday sued the Trumpadministration over its "arbitrary and reckless" removal of roadless protections for the nearly 17 million-acre Tongass National Forest in Alaska, warning that the rollback could devastate local communities, wildlife, and the climate.Earthjustice and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) filed the lawsuit in the U.S. District Court in Alaska on behalf of regional tribes, businesses, and conservation groups. The complaint notes that the largest national forest, located in Southeast Alaska, "is central to the life ways of the Tlingit, Haida, and Tsimshian people who have lived in and depended on the forest since time immemorial."The U.S. Forest Service's move to exempt the forest from the Roadless Rule, finalized just days before President Donald Trump lost reelection to President-elect Joe Biden, would open up more than nine million acres of the Tongass — with its centuries-old trees that provide crucial carbon sequestration — to logging and roadbuilding."The Tongass Forest is my home. Home to the ancient Tlingit and Haida Indigenous Nations, it is where my ancestry originates. My bloodline is Indigenous to this land — its DNA is my DNA," said Kashudoha Wanda Loescher Culp, a Tlingit activist and Tongass coordinator for the Women's Earth and Climate Action Network (WECAN). "The air we breathe, the water we depend on, the land we live upon, all pristine. It is a life to cherish. It is a way of living worth fighting for.""The repeal of the Roadless Rule will only lead to the destruction of our homelands, and subsequently the destruction of our communities who depend upon the abundance of the forest," she said. "This is an attack on our peoples and the climate. The Trump administration's decision to open the Tongass to roads, logging, and mining is an underhanded misuse of congressional authority and the battle will go on — we will continue to rise in defense of our homelands."  Robert Starbard, tribal administrator of the Hoonah Indian Association, declared: "The need for this litigation is a mark of shame upon the federal government for violating the trust and responsibilities it has to the Indigenous peoples of the Tongass. It is equally a stain upon the state of Alaska, which colluded with the Trump administration to circumvent scientific analysis to achieve a desired political outcome." Though the Hoonah Indian Association had accepted a government invitation to weigh in during the rulemaking process, "we ultimately withdrew as a cooperating agency when it became clear that our involvement was purely to provide political cover and lend legitimacy to a corrupted process with a preordained outcome," Starbard explained. "The Roadless Rule decision is fatally flawed and ignores the advice and expertise of the tribal cooperating agencies and omits significant issues and concerns."

 Tropical Depression "Vicky" kills 5, set to make landfall over Palawan, Philippines – (videos) At least five fatalities were reported during the onslaught of Tropical Depression "Vicky" in the Philippines on Saturday, December 19, 2020 -- the storm is forecast to make landfall over the central portion of Palawan on Saturday night, and intensify into a tropical storm once it reaches the West Philippine Sea. The storm triggered landslides and flooding that killed at least two people in Mahaplag, Leyte, according to Mayor Daisy Lleve. The victims were identified as two elderly women aged 67 and 62. Two others sustained injuries and were taken to a hospital. Lleve added that a portion of the road Mahaplag via Baybay was impassable as of Saturday morning due to damage. In Southern Leyte, disaster management officials reported a landslide in Barangay Tubod on Friday, resulting in the collapse of a portion of a road embankment. Only one lane on the road was passable. In Surigao Del Sur, governor Alexander Pimentel said three people lost their lives due to drowning. Another landslide damaged a power substation in Bislig City, affecting four transmission lines.Widespread flooding was reported in several parts of Visayas and Mindanao, including Leyte, Agusan del Sur, and Surigao del Sur, prompting rescues of residents who were trapped in their homes. In Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental, and Lapu Lapu City in Cebu, huge waves and heavy rains caused damage to several houses in coastal areas. About 50 houses were heavily affected in Tinago, Dumaguete, said councilor Paul Baybay.In Mactan Island, waves washed away more than 70 houses, displacing over 290 residents, according to the city disaster management office. On Saturday, officials said they are providing help to the affected communities. The Philippine National Police deployed 1 590 search and rescue personnel, while crews from the Department of Public Works and Highways cleared roads.

Creek Fire forces Christmas Eve evacuations north of San Diego  - A wildfire near a military base 50 miles north of San Diego forced thousands of people to evacuate on Christmas Eve, according to local fire authorities. The fire broke out Wednesday in northern San Diego County, much of which is occupied by Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton. NBC San Diego reported tthat about 7,000 people were ordered to evacuate overnight in the base communities and in neighboring Fallbrook. In an update posted just after 9 a.m. PT, Ryan Rushing, a division chief at the Camp Pendleton Fire Department, said the fire had burned over 3,000 acres was zero percent contained. Rushing said the fire's quick development was "fueled by steep terrain, difficult access, and winds." Another tweet said that the military camp's "Fallbrook gate is closed to all traffic except for emergency vehicles." Authorities had previously said around 7:30 a.m. PT that the Creek Fire was 35 percent contained. The San Diego Sheriff shared a video on Twitter of one of nearly 40 helicopter water drops the department performed over the Creek Fire. Early Thursday morning, Camp Pendleton ordered the evacuation of people located at its DeLuz Housing, Wounded Warrior Battalion and Lake O'Niel Campground. Shortly after 11 a.m. Pacific Time the North County Fire Protection District tweeted that some evacuation orders for Fallbrook were downgraded from orders to warnings. Response to the Creek Fire is being led by Cal Fire, the U.S. Forest Service and the Camp Pendleton Police Department.

New eruption at Kilauea's summit caldera, Aviation Color Code raised to Red, Hawai'i - A new eruption has started within Kīlauea’s summit caldera, Hawai'i at 07:36 UTC on December 21, 2020. Accordingly, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) has elevated Kīlauea's volcano alert level to WARNING and its aviation color code to RED. The situation is rapidly evolving, HVO said in a statement released at 08:41 UTC today. Civil Defense cautioned that ash fallout is likely in Wood Valley, Pahala, Naalehu and Ocean View, and advised residents and visitors to stay indoors to avoid exposure to ash. The last eruption of this volcano took place in 2018 (VEI 3). An earthquake swarm began on the evening (LT) of December 20, accompanied by ground deformation detected by tiltmeters, HVO said. An orange glow was subsequently observed on IR monitoring cameras glow within the Halemaʻumaʻu crater at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, visually beginning at approximately 07:36 UTC on December 21 (21:36 HST, December 20). "An eruption has commenced within Kīlauea’s summit caldera. The situation is rapidly evolving and HVO will issue another statement when more information is available," the observatory said. According to the Washington VAAC, the volcanic ash cloud was observed extending 74 km (46 miles) SSW from the summit area at 09:06 UTC. "WFO reports volcanic ash cloud to 9.1 km (30 000 feet) a.s.l. on local radar." Civil Defense cautioned that ash fallout is likely in Wood Valley, Pahala, Naalehu and Ocean View, and advised residents and visitors to stay indoors to avoid exposure to ash.

Hawaii's Kilauea Volcano Erupts on the Big Island -  Kilauea, a large volcano on the Island of Hawai'i (or Big Island) and one of the most active in the world, erupted Sunday night following a series of earthquakes, CNN reported. The eruption sent lava shooting into the air, along with a huge cloud of ash and steam. Hawaiian officials urged residents to stay indoors shortly after the eruption. "Trade winds will push any embedded ash toward the Southwest. Fallout is likely in the Kau District in Wood Valley, Pahala, Naalehu and Ocean View. Stay indoors," an official from Civil Defense Agency tweeted, according to CNN. However, the lava posed little risk to residents due to the eruption's location on Halemaumau within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, the AP reported. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, (HVO) which monitors activity at Kilauea and its sister volcano Mauna Kea, issued a red aviation code alert after the initial eruption, but has since lowered it to an orange alert, meaning another significant eruption may still be possible. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) also reported a 4.4 magnitude earthquake that struck about an hour after the initial eruption. The USGS received more than 500 reports from people who felt the earthquake, but no major damage has been reported, according to the AP. Kilauea last erupted in May 2018. That event involved a period of earthquakes and eruptions lasting for four months, creating lava flows that destroyed more than 700 homes, the AP reported.  "There are high amounts of hazardous sulfur dioxide gas and particulates and those are billowing out of the crater right now and those present a danger to everyone, especially people with heart or respiratory problems, infants, young children and pregnant women."

Two fissures continue to erupt at Kilauea's Halema'uma'u crater, Hawai'i - Two fissures continue to erupt lava into the growing lava lake in Kilauea's Halema'uma'u crater, as of 11:00 UTC on December 23, 2020. No activity outside of the crater has been observed. Gas emissions and seismic tremor remain elevated, with minor deflationary deformation. Kīlauea continues to erupt at its summit from at least two vents on the north and west sides of Halema'uma'u since the eruption began early December 21 (UTC).As of 21:51 UTC on December 22, the growing crater lake was 487 m (1 598 feet) below the crater rim, indicating that the lake has filled 134 m (440 feet) of the bottom of the Halema'uma'u crater. It was rising more than 1 m per hour (3 feet/h).Summit tiltmeters continued to record slowing deflationary tilt on December 22. Sulfur dioxide emission rates remained high, estimated at around 30 000 tonnes/day.As of late December 22 (UTC), a preliminary calculation of volume suggests that, since the start of the eruption, approximately 10 million cubic meters of lava have been erupted (equivalent to over 2 billion gallons). This is a surface area of about 13 ha (33 acres). High levels of volcanic gas, rockfalls, explosions, and volcanic glass particles are the primary hazards of concern regarding this new activity at Kīlauea's summit, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) said. Large amounts of volcanic gas—primarily water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) - are continuously released during eruptions of Kīlauea Volcano. As SO2 is released from the summit during this new eruption, it will react in the atmosphere with oxygen, sunlight, moisture, and other gases and particles, and within hours to days, convert to fine particles. The particles scatter sunlight and cause the visible haze that has been observed downwind of Kīlauea, known as vog (volcanic smog), during previous summit eruptions. Vog creates the potential for airborne health hazards to residents and visitors, damages agricultural crops and other plants, and affects livestock operations. Rockfalls and minor explosions, such as the ones that occurred during the 2008–2018 lava lake eruption at Kīlauea summit, may occur suddenly and without warning. This underscores the extremely hazardous nature of Kīlauea caldera rim surrounding the Halema'uma'u crater, an area that has been closed to the public since late 2007. Pele's hair and other lightweight volcanic glass fragments from the lava fountains within Halema'uma'u will fall downwind of the fissure vents and lava lake, dusting the ground within a few hundred meters of the vent.

Strong explosive eruption at Etna volcano, Aviation Color Code raised to Red, Italy  -A new paroxysmal eruptive episode started at Etna volcano, Italy on the morning of December 21, 2020. The Aviation Color Code has been raised to Red at 09:34 UTC.According to the Etna Volcano Observatory, a strong intensification of strombolian activity started at Etna's Southeast Crater at 09:08 UTC.The weather conditions don't allow continuous observation of the current phenomenon.From a seismic perspective, the average amplitude of volcanic tremor in the Southeast Crater has high values.Infrasonic activity is also very sustained, with high values ​​both in the frequency of occurrence and in the amplitude of infrasonic events.  "Volcanic cloud height is currently not estimable," Etna Volcano Observatory said in VONA released 09:34 UTC. "Ash cloud is moving toward south. The phenomenon is observed by visible and thermal surveillance cameras."Strombolian activity at the easternmost mouth of the Southeast Crater started at thebeginning of December 2020 and rapidly intensified on the evening of Sunday, December 13, with lava fountaining, and pyroclastic and lava flows.Lava fountaining during the first phase lasted a few tens of minutes and ended just before 23:00 UTC on December 13. Strombolian activity intensified at around midnight UTC on December 14, culminating in the second phase of lava fountaining, also lasting about 10 minutes.Modest Strombolian activity continued throughout the rest of the night and morning, while the effusive activity ceased, and at dawn, there were few incandescent spots on the southwestern flow front.

Lava fountains at Etna on December 22, 2020 -- Strong strombolian activity and lava fountaining were observed at Etna's Southeast Crater on December 22, 2020, after dense cloud cover prevented initial clear observations of strong explosive activity that started on December 21. At 01:30 UTC on December 22, the seismic network detected a sharp increase in the average amplitude of the volcanic tremor in the Southeast Crater, rising to high values. Starting at 04:19 UTC, strombolian activity suddenly evolved into lava fountaining, feeding two distinct lava flows -- one heading toward the southwest, branching west and east of Mount Frumento Supino, and the second heading eastward, inside the Bove Valley. Analysis of surveillance camera images at 04:20 UTC revealed a small ground explosion in the Bove Valley, caused by the interaction of the lava flow and the snow cover. Lava fountaining gradually subsided until it ceased at around 05:00 UTC. Lava flow in Bove Valley has reached an estimated altitude of about 2 400 m (7 870 feet) at the time. The second lava flow was also still powered and the front stood at an estimated altitude of about 2 500 m (8 200 feet) a.s.l. Volcanic tremor sharply decreased around 04:00 UTC, reaching average values. Infrasonic activity remained sustained and located mainly in the area of the Southeast Crater. Soil deformations monitoring networks no longer showed significant deformations. In an update released at 16:38 UTC, INGV said lava flows were no longer being powered and have begun to cool. "Volcanic tremor exhibited modest fluctuations in the last few hours and currently stands at an average value." Regarding infrasonic activity, there is a slight decrease in the number of infrasonic events; the sources are located mainly in the area of the Northeast Crater and, to a lesser extent, in the area of the Southeast Crater. Soil deformations monitoring networks show no more significant deformations on high and medium-altitude station signals.

 Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event expected as we enter 2021 - A major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is predicted to occur as we start the new year. If the models are correct, we can expect prolonged extremely cold temperatures to affect parts of the northern hemisphere by mid-January.SSW refers to a rapid rise in temperatures between 10 and 50 km (6.2 - 31 miles) above the surface of our planet.Several weeks later, we see knock-on effects on the jet stream, which can significantly affect weather in the troposphere -- bringing prolonged extremely cold temperatures such as witnessed in 2018 with an extreme event dubbed 'Beast from the East.' "The stratospheric sudden warming can sometimes cause the jet stream to ‘snake’ more, and this tends to create a large area of blocking high pressure," the UK Met Office meteorologists explained."Typically, this will form over the North Atlantic and Scandinavia.""This means that northern Europe, including the UK, is likely to get a long spell of dry, cold weather, whereas southern Europe will tend to be more mild, wet and windy. On the boundary of these areas, cold easterly winds develop and in some cases the drop in temperatures leads to snow, which is what happened in early 2018."Stratospheric warming events in winter, are very important, as they can change the course of winter weather development and affect global circulation, Adrej Flis of the Severe Weather Europe said. "We need to see how exactly the SSW event will play out before we can simulate proper weather results," Flis added. "But, a collapsed vortex always greatly increases the chances for winter weather towards Europe and the Continental United States. A lot depends on how the existing pressure pattern looks, while the effects from the stratosphere come crashing down from above.

2021 Global Climate Forecast: Slightly Less Hot Than 2020 -2021 is forecasted to be slightly colder worldwide than years previous, according to meteorologists at the United Kingdom Meteorological Office, but will still be one the hottest on record due to greenhouse gas effects. A La Niña weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean will cause strong winds to blow warm surface water around the equator westward, making the ocean temperature a few degrees colder. The variance in ocean temperature during a La Niña winter can cause temperature changes worldwide. It will likely increase rainfall in Australia, Indonesia, and eastern Asia, while drier conditions will likely occur in the southwestern U.S.Forecasters calculate the hottest years by comparing temperatures before and after the industrial era of 1850-1900, when greenhouse gases became mostly human-made from automobiles, factories, and large-scale agriculture."The global temperature for 2021 is unlikely to be a record year due to the influence of the current La Niña, but it will be far warmer than other past La Niña years such as 2011 and 2000 due to global warming," Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, told the BBC.But next year is predicted to be still above 1 degree Celsius preindustrial levels — empirical proof greenhouse gases cause hotter temperatures and climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated a 0.2°C increase in global temperature every decade since the industrial era, due to human activities.  According to the BBC, 2016 remains the warmest year on record. 2020 and 2019 are both contenders for second place.

Climate change: threshold for dangerous warming will likely be crossed between 2027-2042 --The threshold for dangerous global warming will likely be crossed between 2027 and 2042 - a much narrower window than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimate of between now and 2052. In a study published in Climate Dynamics, researchers from McGill University introduce a new and more precise way to project the Earth's temperature. Based on historical data, it considerably reduces uncertainties compared to previous approaches.Scientists have been making projections of future global warming using climate models for decades. Climate models are mathematical simulations of different factors that interact to affect Earth's climate, such as the atmosphere, ocean, ice, land surface and the sun. While they are based on the best understanding of the Earth's systems available, when it comes to forecasting the future, uncertainties remain."Climate skeptics have argued that global warming projections are unreliable because they depend on faulty supercomputer models. While these criticisms are unwarranted, they underscore the need for independent and different approaches to predicting future warming," says co-author Bruno Tremblay, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at McGill University.Until now, wide ranges in overall temperature projections have made it difficult to pinpoint outcomes in different mitigation scenarios. For instance, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations are doubled, the General Circulation Models (GCMs) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), predict a very likely global average temperature increase between 1.9 and 4.5C - a vast range covering moderate climate changes on the lower end, and catastrophic ones on the other. "Our new approach to projecting the Earth's temperature is based on historical climate data, rather than the theoretical relationships that are imperfectly captured by the GCMs. Our approach allows climate sensitivity and its uncertainty to be estimated from direct observations with few assumptions,"

The big business of climate change denial – CNBC video - Despite overwhelming scientific evidence to the contrary, some American politicians continue to deny that climate change exists, while others question the severity of its impact. And among the general public, climate change denial is higher in the U.S. today than almost anywhere else in the world. This is largely the result of the oil and gas industry's financial interests colliding with a powerful libertarian strain in U.S. politics. Fossil fuel companies, hoping to prolong the world's reliance on their products, have made common cause with conservative and libertarian think tanks that promote free market economics, and therefore oppose fossil fuel regulation on ideological grounds. This combination of money and deep-seated ideology has helped prevent the U.S. from taking bolder climate action for decades. But public opinion is shifting, and today even oil and gas companies publicly admit that climate change is a serious problem. So as the public and corporations change, what does the climate denial landscape look like today? Who exactly still funds this movement? And why is denial mainly a U.S. problem?

Biden's Latest Climate Nominees Have Fought Fossil Fuel Projects - BNN -- President-elect Joe Biden has tapped North Carolina environmental regulator Michael Regan and Representative Deb Haaland of New Mexico to advance his climate policy and strengthen safeguards against pollution. If confirmed, Regan would become Environmental Protection Agency administrator and Haaland secretary of the Interior. The selections, which were confirmed by people familiar with the deliberations, round out a team of top officials charged with propelling Biden’s ambitious climate agenda, including goals to decarbonize the electric grid by 2035 and pare oil development on public land. Both candidates have staked out positions against fossil fuel projects that are expected to provoke scrutiny from Republicans in the Senate. Haaland, for instance, has said she’s “wholeheartedly against fracking and drilling on public lands” -- a position that was celebrated by environmentalists on Thursday even as it provoked alarm in the oil and gas industry. The Biden transition declined to comment on the nominations. “Haaland has been clear about her commitment to ending the exploitation of public lands by fossil fuel corporations,” said Mitch Jones, policy director of Food & Water Watch, an environmental group. Picking Haaland, he said, “is a bold move that signals that Biden is serious about pursuing a full ban on oil and gas leases on public lands.” The oil and gas industry has already warned of lost jobs and revenue if Biden makes good on vows to block new drilling and fracking on federal lands. Haaland’s home state of New Mexico is near the epicenter of the clash -- with burgeoning oil production that once paid for a free-college program and now provides roughly 39% of the state’s budget. Any move to curtail oil development could have a significant impact in New Mexico. Roughly 90% of all production in the state’s portion of the oil-rich Permian shale basin was on state and federal lands last year, according to the New Mexico Oil & Gas Association. The Independent Petroleum Association of New Mexico said Thursday it had “serious concerns about the selection of Congresswoman Haaland for the job of interior secretary.” “Ms. Haaland has repeatedly demonstrated contempt towards our industry, especially regarding the need for a balanced approach to public land management,” the group said. “We urge congressional leaders to closely examine her anti-oil & gas record as they consider this selection.”

Heavy-Duty Fuel Cell Trucks Ready for Deployment at California Ports  -Toyota Motor North America announced Dec. 10 that the first two fuel-cell electric heavy-duty Class 8 trucks built under the Zero and Near Zero Emissions Freight Forwarding project using its technology are ready for delivery to customers at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.The trucks are part of a demonstration project made possible in part by a California Air Resources Board grant, and will be used in drayage operations.A total of $41 million was awarded to the Port of Los Angeles for the ZANZEFF project as part of California Climate Investments, which funds projects using cap-and-trade dollars. A portion of that funding is being used to develop the Kenworth T680 FCEV, which uses a Toyota fuel-cell electric drivetrain. Toyota Logistics Services and Southern Counties Express each will receive one of the ZEVs. "We have been involved with Toyota's hydrogen truck project since the beginning and we are excited to see the latest models now being released for further testing," Gordon Reimer, president of Southern Counties Express, said.  The ports are two of North America's largest and handle almost 40 percent of the nation's containerized import traffic and 25 percent of its total exports. Conventional diesel trucks are a major emissions source, affecting air quality and human health. "Reducing diesel truck emissions from the 17,000 drayage trucks operating in our region each day will significantly reduce air pollution from the Ports," Wayne Nastri, executive officer for the South Coast Air Quality Management District, said in a June statement related to the release of a near-zero-emission heavy-duty natural gas truck assessment for the ports. "With a continued need for goods movement, it is critical to deploy more cost-effective, commercially ready near- or zero-emission solutions that can help us reach our clean air goals" (see CEM No. 1593).  This class of vehicles will help the state achieve its Advanced Clean Trucks Regulation targets, and hydrogen can play a key role, according to state and industry officials. The Advanced Clean Trucks Regulation is the name of a package of policies adopted by CARB in June to send a clear market signal to accelerate adoption of zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty trucks and get diesel-fueled trucks off state roads. It applies to Class 2b or heavy-duty pickups through Class 8 vehicles—freight-hauling tractor-trailers (see CEM No. 1596). The regulations are needed to help California address emissions in the tough-to-clean-up transportation sector, which contributes roughly half of the state's greenhouse gas inventory, including emissions from fuel production.

 Sempra Utilities OK'd to Begin Voluntary RNG Pilot for California Customers --California has authorized Sempra Energy’s two state utilities to begin a three-year voluntary pilot program that would offer renewable natural gas (RNG) to residential and small commercial/industrial customers. Southern California Gas Co. (SoCalGas) and San Diego Gas and Electric Co. (SDG&E) were approved to begin the $2 million demonstration by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). Regulators did not act on a broader settlement between the utilities with 17 stakeholders; the pilot includes elements of the agreement. “We start with the program proposed in the settlement because it provides a good structure and reasonably addresses numerous issues,” CPUC stated. The order outlines requirements for RNG procurement, measuring carbon intensity, rate cost recovery and wind-down costs, if the pilot does not become a permanent program. Because of estimates that RNG would cost consumers four times the price of traditional natural gas, the CPUC approved a voluntary RNG tariff. At least half of the RNG must meet the state’s quality standards for blending with traditional gas supply. The CPUC order used an estimated $1.51/therm for RNG, compared to an average natural gas charge of 36 cents/therm. Additional program charges were estimated at 23 cents/therm for SoCalGas and $1.42/therm for SDG&E. “The gas system complements and is a necessary facilitator of decarbonization,” said Sempra spokesperson Christine Detz. “California’s success in achieving its climate change goals depends in large measure on [our] success in decarbonizing the fuels flowing through our grid.”

Minnesota Power Reaches 50% Renewables Milestone - Minnesota Power has become the first Minnesota utility to deliver 50% renewable energy to customers, bringing the company closer to its energy mix its energy mix goal of two-thirds renewable energy and natural gas, and one-third “environmentally compliant” coal, the company said Wednesday. The company reached the milestone when its Nobles 2 wind project in southwestern Minnesota came online this month. Through its EnergyForward strategy, Minnesota Power aims to transition to cleaner sources of energy while still providing affordable electricity. Under its strategy, Minnesota Power has effectively halved its carbon emissions since 2005, adding almost 900 MW of wind energy capacity into its energy mix. It plans to increase its solar energy capacity in 2021 to 31 MW from 11 MW, and retire or idle seven of its nine coal-fired generators. Minnesota Power is among several utilities in the region owned by ALLETE Inc. The wind farm is owned by Nobles 2 Power Partners LLC, comprising affiliates of ALLETE subsidiary Tenaska and Bright Canyon Energy. The wind farm will provide renewable energy to Minnesota Power under a 20-year power purchase agreement. With Nobles 2 operational the company’s wind portfolio has grown to about 870 MW of owned and contracted capacity. The project adds to Minnesota Power’s geographical diversity, as it also has power assets in North Dakota.

 California utilities warn of potential Christmas Eve blackout - Southern California Edison and Sempra Energy could cut power to 225K homes and businesses on Christmas Eve as a possible wind storm raises wildfire risks in the southern and central portions of the state.  Edison says it may cut power to more than 193K homes and businesses across seven counties from the hills north of Los Angeles east to the Mojave Desert, and Sempra's utility serving the San Diego area says it may need to switch off electricity to more than 31K homes and businesses starting today, with the blackouts possibly lasting into Christmas morning. The blackouts could affect more than 670K people based on the size of the average household. Utilities across California have cut electricity repeatedly this year over fears that power lines could fall into dry brush, and power shutoffs in the southern half of the state earlier this month affected nearly 1M people.

Reform of secrecy law for Pa. utilities faces long odds despite agreement that it's a problem -   More than a decade ago, when the state Public Utility Commission was first considering how to adopt a new anti-terrorism law, critics spoke about the need for balance.The effort was intended to prevent criminals from getting sensitive details about Pennsylvania’s utility infrastructure that could be used to perpetrate mass crimes. The potential to contaminate drinking water systems and manipulate the electric grid were top of mind for state officials and lawmakers aiming to safeguard the state in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks.But secrecy could create unintended risks, critics argued in 2008. The commission should have a system to ensure that powerful utility companies do not exploit the law to keep large swaths of public information confidential without consequence.Twelve years later, there is now bipartisan agreement that those concerns have come to pass. Some protections meant to ensure that the law was working as intended have fallen by the wayside. And a recent decision by Commonwealth Court could make the law stronger than ever — and make it even harder and more expensive for residents to challenge what gets kept a secret. “Anytime a government agency or a regulated entity is given broad discretion to classify records as confidential, there has got to be a significant check on that power,” said Melissa Melewsky, a lawyer with the Pennsylvania NewsMedia Association, which submitted public comments arguing for greater government and corporate accountability related to the CSI Act in 2008. “And there really doesn’t appear to be.”  Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf and lawmakers from both parties say the act — formally known as the Public Utility Confidentiality Security Information Disclosure Protection, or CSI, Act — is in need of reform. Legal experts told Spotlight PA that it is inherently archaic, implemented before the state overhauled its approach to public records and became the center of the fracking boom, leading to a proliferation of pipelines, most notably the Mariner East system.

Citing Coal Shortages, China Rations Electricity for Millions -In the city of Yiwu in eastern China, the authorities turned off streetlights for several days and ordered factories to open only part-time. In coastal Wenzhou, the government ordered some companies not to heat their offices unless temperatures are close to freezing. In southern Hunan Province, workers have reported climbing dozens of flights of stairs after elevators were shut down. Large swaths of China are scrambling to restrict electricity use this winter, as the country’s rapid economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and unexpectedly frigid temperatures have sent demand for power surging. Officials in at least three provinces — where a total of more than 150 million people live — have issued orders limiting energy use, warning of potential coal shortages. Demand for coal is so high in the mining hub of Henan Province that buyers have been lining up in trucks at the gates of coal mines, jostling for access, according to a recent report in the state-run news media. Many residents have responded to the restrictions with anxiety and confusion, worrying about being left in the cold or suffering hits to their businesses. Chinese officials have sought to remind citizens of the country’s ambitious environmental goals while reassuring them that there is plenty of energy to keep people warm and the economy humming.  But the drastic measures point to potential longer-term problems in China’s energy universe, as leaders juggle competing priorities. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has vowed to make China a climate leader and to make the country carbon-neutral by 2060. But the country still draws nearly 70 percent of its power from fossil fuels, predominantly coal, and those energy sources have helped propel China’s impressive recovery from the pandemic. By May of this year, China’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy production, cement making and other industrial uses were 4 percent higher than the year before. Some of the present difficulties may also be self-inflicted.  Coastal areas of China depend on imported coal, including from Australia. But relations between the two countries have gone into free-fall this year, as Australia has, among other things, demanded an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, which first emerged in China. China in turn has banned imports of Australian coal — leaving huge ships stranded at sea.  Chinese officials have denied that the ban on Australian coal is responsible for the current squeeze on energy, noting that in 2018 less than 8 percent of China’s coal consumption involved imported coal; much of Australia’s coal is also used for steel and other metals, not power. But the government has also acknowledged, with rare bluntness, the scale of the problem. “At the moment, some provinces temporarily do not have enough electricity. This is an objective fact,” one of the national government’s most powerful bodies, the entity that oversees state-owned companies, said on Sunday. In response, the authorities ordered residents to begin rationing energy. Every day between 10:30 a.m. and noon, and 4:30 p.m. and 8:30 p.m., lighting on most building facades and billboards are to be shut down, according to the order. Office buildings will not have power during weekends. Residents were also told not to use electric stoves or ovens.

FirstEnergy probe needed to restore public trust, 3 ex-regulators say  – Three former utility regulators want an extensive investigation into Akron-based FirstEnergy to restore the public's trust after a federal bribery probe and prominent resignations.  Since July, federal investigators have arrested five people, including the former Ohio House leader, in connection with a bribery scheme to pass a $1 billion bailout of two nuclear plants in northern Ohio then-owned by FirstEnergy Solutions. Several FirstEnergy executives, including CEO Chuck Jones, have resigned – though none have been charged.Top utility regulator, Public Utilities Commission of Ohio chairman Sam Randazzo, also resigned after FirstEnergy disclosed they paid $4 million to end a contract with someone who later became a regulator. The public's trust in lawmakers, utilities and the people who watch utilities have taken a hit. That's why three former PUCO commissioners sent a letter to Gov. Mike DeWine and the current commission on Monday. Former commissioners Ashley C. Brown, J. Michael Biddison and Todd Snitchler asked the PUCO to investigate several areas:

• whether FirstEnergy and its affiliated companies should continue to hold a monopoly to provide electric distribution services across northern Ohio and parts of central Ohio. 
• whether the PUCO should keep FirstEnergy on a shorter leash, requiring "more rigorous oversight" into how its companies are connected and held accountable. 
• whether Randazzo showed favoritism to FirstEnergy or former subsidiary Energy Harbor, which owns the two plants, and what steps could prevent future undue benefits.

That investigation should be conducted by an independent law firm or consultant with experience in forensic accounting and corporate responsibility, they wrote.  The former commissioners also wanted FirstEnergy to file a rate case with the PUCO, which it hasn't done since 2007. Rate cases allow regulators to look at what a utility is charging customers and determine if the fees are reasonable.

Judge blocks nuclear bailout fees on Ohioans' bills – A Franklin County judge blocked fees on Ohioans' electric bills for two nuclear plants as part of a $1 billion bailout that federal investigators say was crooked. Franklin County Common Pleas Court Judge Chris Brown issued a preliminary injunction Monday blocking the fees, set to begin in January under House Bill 6, after nearly two hours of legal arguments. “To not impose an injunction would be to allow certain parties to prevail. It would give the OK that bribery is allowed in the state of Ohio and that any ill-gotten gains can be received. All you’ve got to do is find the right legislator, find the right speaker of the House," Brown said. "It is in the public interest to avoid that sentiment throughout the state."As lawmakers considered alternatives to House Bill 6, Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost, Cincinnati and Columbus filed lawsuits to block fees from hitting Ohioans' electric bills. The fees will subsidize two nuclear plants in northern Ohio owned by Energy Harbor. In July, federal investigators arrested former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four others in connection with a nearly $61 million bribery scheme to help Householder win control of the House, pass a nuclear plant bailout and defend that law against a ballot effort to upend it. "You don’t get to control the state of Ohio by bribing an insider," said Charles Miller, deputy chief counsel in the Ohio attorney general's office.  Ohio lawmakers are considering several options for House Bill 6, the law at the heart of the federal investigation as soon as Tuesday. They could delay the collection of the fees or repeal all subsidies. Legislators struggled to find the needed votes to pass anything on the matter last week. Energy Harbor attorney Marion Little argued that the law wasn't unconstitutional and no one at Energy Harbor had been accused of a crime. Ohio lawmakers could still make changes to House Bill 6 so everyone should wait.  "I understand they may be impatient," Little said. “Unless there is a constitutional challenge to that legislation, and there is none by the way by the attorney general, that law remains the state law that is entitled to enforcement."  Brown ruled that the law was constitutional but said he did not need to wait on lawmakers to act. Without an injunction, the fees would hit Ohioans' bills soon.  "As of today, as of this moment there has been no movement on any legislation, and the court feels that waiting to see, putting the ball in the General Assembly's court would be an abdication of my responsibility to decide these issues," Brown said.   “Public corruption is not in the public’s interest ever,”

 'Anti-Protest' Bill Passes Ohio House - People who protest oil and gas pipelines and other infrastructure in Ohio could face stiffer penalties, under a bill passed by the Ohio House late Thursday. The bill creates heavier penalties for trespass and tampering of critical infrastructure like oil, gas, electric, water, telecommunications, and railroads. Tampering with these types of facilities could mean a third degree felony charge, which carries a maximum fine of $10,000 and up to three years in prison, more severe than trespass charges at other locations. This is needed, according to Republican Representative Jamie Callender, who spoke on the House floor Thursday, because of the costly damage that can be done to this type of infrastructure. “Here in Ohio we didn’t have any way to deal with that, other than the normal petty trespass and vandalism,” he said, “which is not enough to cover the damage that is done in these instances.” More than 170 Ohioans previously testified against the measure, many calling it an effort to shut down protests, especially against pipelines and energy development. The bill calls for penalties not just for individuals who trespass, but for groups seen to encourage them. Environmental groups fear that even chanting “stop the pipeline” could be construed as encouraging damage to critical infrastructure, which could lead to fines 10 times those levied against individuals. “SB 33’s purpose is to intimidate individuals, communities, and organizations lawfully exercising their First Amendment and other fundamental rights,” wrote Cheryl Johncox of the Sierra Club in her testimony to an Ohio Senate committee opposing the bill. The Ohio bill has now passed the House and Senate, and would need Governor DeWine’s signature. 

Frack waste loading dock permit challenged in court - Martins Ferry Times Leader — A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers permit that would allow a fracking waste loading facility to be constructed on the Ohio River in Martins Ferry is being challenged by an environmental group.The Corps permit was requested March 30 by 4K Industrial “to construct a barge loading and off-loading waterfront facility. The facility will be receiving fluids from the Gas and Oil markets for processing, to reuse the fluids for drilling operations or to be sent to a disposal facility.”People had until April 30 to submit comments or request a public hearing on the permit application. It was approved by the Army Corps in October.The FreshWater Accountability Project, an environmental group concerned about the proposed permit, on Dec. 7 filed a complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio against the Army Corps, challenging the permit.“The complaint is seeking declaratory judgment and injunctive relief. No public hearing was held for this permit, violating several federal laws which require public notice and invite public comment. This complaint also highlighted the lack of sufficient environmental review to comply with National Environmental Policy Act requirements,” according to a release from the group.“Rather than allow shipment of yet another potentially deadly product on the river, FreshWater believes the time is now to start cleaning up the river rather than exposing it to the hazardous release of radioactive isotopes and unknown chemicals on such a massive scale that barging would bring,” said Lea Harper, managing director of FreshWater Accountability Project.“We see the agencies continuing to toss the responsibility to each other so that no one agency is accountable for bad decisions, which is what we consider this decision to be between the USACE and the (United States Coast Guard). We believe the (United States Environmental Protection Agency) should be looking into this decision to barge frack waste on such an important drinking water source, especially because of the radioactive and proprietary elements involved, and the fact that it will encourage more toxic frack waste processing plants to proliferate along the river. Policy decisions like this one to allow barging of frack waste have been shown to create more long-term harm than short-term good, so we do not see the public benefit at all.”

For the Ohio River Valley, an Ethane Storage Facility in Texas Is Either a Model or a Cautionary Tale  The Trump administration and industry leaders have pointed to a major petrochemical storage complex outside Houston as a model for the upper Ohio River Valley. If only they could find a place like Mont Belvieu, Texas, where geological features allow for large-scale underground storage of the chemicals used to make plastic products, there could be an economic resurgence to follow the collapse of steel and coal. Tens of thousands of jobs would follow.With enough storage of ethane from thousands of existing natural gas fracking wells in the Appalachian region’s Marcellus and Utica shale deposits, the argument goes, several multi-billion-dollar plastic manufacturing plants could be built, lifting economic fortunes across four states: Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky. But if Mont Belvieu—a massive chemical distribution center for what has been a booming Gulf Coast plastics and petrochemical industry—has been a model for those promoting an Appalachian petrochemical renaissance, it also serves as a cautionary tale to those who would rather the Appalachian region reject a boom-or-bust fossil fuel future.An examination of the chemical plants, pipelines and other gas handling equipment that sit atop the massive stores of natural gas liquids at Mont Belvieu reveals a history of fires, explosions, leaks, excess emissions, fines for air and water pollution violations, and an oversized carbon footprint. “We have the evidence that this is harmful, and Mont Belvieu is the prime example of that,” said Dustin White, project coordinator with the Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition, based in West Virginia. “The intention is to have a massive petrochemical buildout, and it’s outlandish they want to build it here, especially in an area that already has major health issues due to existing fossil fuel industries.”A January report meant as a warning to Appalachia, by the Environmental Integrity Project, a Washington-based watchdog group founded by former EPA staff, found that the Mont Belvieu complex was marked by multiple explosions, fires, evacuations and fatalities throughout the 1980s and 1990s, and continues to be a major polluter. The largest Mont Belvieu operator is subject to ongoing federal and state enforcement actions, InsideClimate News found.“Communities in Appalachia are at risk from a plan for an aggressive expansion of the petrochemical and plastics production industry, including construction of a massive new ethane storage hub,” the report concluded. “Area decision makers and residents need to consider the serious hazards that have arisen at a similar development complex in Mont Belvieu, Texas.” Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-West Virginia), among the nation’s leading supporters of the coal industry and also a strong proponent of an Appalachian natural gas buildout, declined to comment on Mont Belvieu’s environmental difficulties but said he remains “committed to the development of the proposed Appalachian Storage Hub, particularly in this moment, for its economic development benefits for rural West Virginia, the greater Appalachian region, and our entire nation.”

Pennsylvania Selects Partner for $2.5M Study on Link Between Cancer and Hydraulic Fracturing -- Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf’s administration has signed a $2.5 million contract with the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health to conduct additional research on the potential health effects of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) in the state.  The move comes in response to growing concerns in four southwestern Pennsylvania counties where unconventional natural gas development is robust, and high numbers of childhood and young adult cancers have been reported, including more than two dozen cases of the rare bone cancer known as Ewing Sarcoma. Residents from the area have been pushing the state to explore any possible links between the cancer cases and natural gas development.  Wolf’s office said late last year that it would select an academic partner to work on two separate studies at a cost for the state of roughly $1 million annually. The administration said this week that the University of Pittsburgh “will be conducting two observational epidemiological studies focusing on known or suspected health effects of hydraulic fracturing.” In one study, the university will investigate the relationship between fracking and the development of childhood cancers in Fayette, Greene, Washington and Westmoreland counties. The other study would aim to replicate earlier research on conditions such as asthma and birth outcomes using data from southwestern Pennsylvania.  Researchers hope to finish the studies within the next two years, according to the state Department of Health. The graduate school of public health intends to release quarterly summaries on its work and plans to provide a progress update at the end of the first year. Once the studies are completed, a public meeting would be held to provide information on conclusions, the department said.   Oil and gas development, along with other industrial sources, such as a uranium mill tailings site in the region, have been floated as possible causes. The prevalence of cancer, however, makes it difficult to link clusters to any one cause. In a joint statement issued last year by the Marcellus Shale Coalition, Pennsylvania Independent Oil and Gas Association and the American Petroleum Institutes’ Pennsylvania chapter, the industry said it welcomed the studies and was prepared to work closely with the administration.

 Equitrans Cuts Guidance as Appalachian Producers Continue to Hunker Down - Equitrans Midstream Corp. has significantly cut its 2021 financial forecast as Appalachian natural gas producers continue to curb spending and output. Equitrans, the third largest natural gas gatherer in the United States with operations in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, this month cut its net income guidance for next year to $540-610 million. That’s down from the 2020 forecast that was issued at about the same time last year calling for $1.05-1.10 billion of net income. Appalachian pure-play EQT Corp., Equitrans’ largest upstream customer and the Lower 48’s biggest natural gas producer, renegotiated its midstream contracts for fee relief in the coming years that kicks in beginning in 2021. Meanwhile, producers across the country have continued to curb spending and limit output amid lackluster commodity prices and weak demand during the Covid-19 pandemic. The midpoint of the company’s financial forecast assumes an average of 8 Bcf/d of total gathered volume. The company also said that 70% of its forecasted operating revenue next year is expected to be generated from firm reservation fees. Equitrans is forecasting capital expenditures of $1.04-1.14 billion next year for gathering, transmission and water costs. Also included in that total is the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) project, which has faced repeated regulatory delays and cost overruns. The company expects to spend up to $720 million on MVP this year. The financial forecast assumes MVP will enter service by Dec. 31, 2021. Since receiving its Federal Energy Regulatory Commision certificate in 2017, MVP has faced relentless opposition from environmental advocates. In response to legal challenges spearheaded by these opposition groups, federal courts have issued numerous adverse rulings that have led to construction stoppages and delays. MVP recently obtained new and updated federal approvals related to waterbody crossings and endangered species protections, which have subsequently been subject to further legal challenges, to mixed results thus far. When construction on the system started in 2018, the pipeline was estimated to cost $3.5 billion and be in service by the end of 2018. MVP is now forecasting the 2 Bcf/d system, which would move Appalachian natural gas to the Southeast, to cost up to $6 billion.

 Viewpoint: Rising Appalachian gas weighs on 2021 prices –= Natural gas output from the US Appalachian region has proven resilient this year, even as a price slump forced producers to rein in production growth, a trend that could lead to lower prices in the coming year. Gas production from the Appalachian region in 2020 has continued to top year earlier levels, despite the efforts of large regional producers such as EQT, Cabot Oil and Gas and Range Resources to cut costs and return more profits to shareholders. Those companies are facing pressure from investors to stop pursuing seemingly endless production growth. "There is clearly a need for more discipline from all operators" to achieve higher prices, said EQT chief executive Toby Rice in an October earnings call. But Appalachian gas output has continued to climb, underscoring gains in drilling efficiencies that have allowed producers to coax more gas from each new well. Producers have also locked prices on future output through hedging programs which leave them less susceptible to low regional spot prices. "We have seen producers — when pricing gets really bad — curtailing, but by and large, they are a little bit sheltered from some of the most extreme price impacts because of hedging," said Anna Lenzmeier, an energy analyst with BTU Analytics. Dry natural gas production in the Marcellus and Utica shale fields from January to November averaged 31 Bcf/d (878mn m³/d), 4pc higher than a year earlier, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Marcellus made up the bulk of that output at 23.3 Bcf/d, 6pc higher than year-earlier levels. The formation also had year-over-year gains above 9pc in every month from July to September. Prices may still receive a boost in the coming months as demand for US LNG increases and associated gas production falls because of lower oil prices. At the same time, some producers may be looking to take advantage of typical price spikes that accompany winter demand. Cold weather in the week ended 18 December lifted prices as a winter storm blanketed the northeastern US. Demand-area gas prices surged to an average of $7/mmBtu on 17 December, almost triple the price a week earlier. US gas output was expected to drop to 90.9 Bcf/d this year from an average of 93 Bcf/d in 2019, the EIA said.  Spot prices at the Henry Hub, the benchmark price for US gas, in 2021 will average $3.01/mmBtu, according to an EIA forecast. That is down from a November forecast of $3.14/mmBtu. The EIA also revised its forecast average for January down to $3.10/mmBtu from $3.42/mmBtu in the November forecast because of higher expected storage levels.

CenterPoint Energy : seeks recovery following completion of 7-year natural gas pipeline modernization -- CenterPoint Energy's Indiana-based gas utility, Indiana Gas Company, has filed a request with the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) for recovery of investments made within its Indiana natural gas service territory. The filing comes at the completion of the company's 7-year, $725 million gas modernization plan, which was filed in 2013 to comply with federal pipeline safety rules and continue the safe, reliable delivery of natural gas service to its 620,000 north central, central and southeastern Indiana customers. The gas system improvements resulted in upgrades to portions of CenterPoint Energy's 13,000-mile network of distribution mains and transmission pipelines serving north central, central and southeastern Indiana. The work primarily consisted of replacing bare steel and cast-iron distribution mains with new industry-grade plastic mains, as well as inspecting and upgrading natural gas transmission pipelines. This pipeline work has led to a 33% reduction in methane emissions since 2013. Since 2008, nearly 650 miles of gas mains have been replaced in the utility's territory. Using 2013 state laws focused on federal mandates and natural gas infrastructure needs, Indiana utilities submit forward-looking capital investment plans to the IURC for review and cost recovery. The statutes provide utilities the ability for gradual investment recovery as modernization progress is made; otherwise defined as 80% of total capital expenditures and lessening the effect of a larger rate increase through traditional rate recovery. The balance of recovery must be sought through a traditional rate request at the end of the 7-year plan and is a requirement of the law. With the 2013 filing and the IURC's approval and regular review of that plan, the company seeks recovery of the remaining 20% of those investments.

LNG Dip, Pandemic Worries Keep January Natural Gas Futures in Check; Spot Prices Sink -Despite favorable weather news, natural gas futures traded sideways Monday as worries mounted over a still-surging coronavirus pandemic and its potential impacts on economies and energy demand. The January Nymex contract settled at $2.705/MMBtu, up a half-cent day/day. February ticked up eight-tenths of a cent to $2.689. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg.., meanwhile, declined 19.5 cents to $2.815 amid a warm weather start to the week. NatGasWeather said that while major models swayed back and forth between milder and colder trends over the weekend and into Monday, the American Global Forecast System ultimately settled on a colder outlook beginning around the Christmas holiday and continuing into early January. “There’s still light demand to trudge through the next three days, but after the pattern is much better than it’s been all winter and likely finally cold enough for a bullish lean,” the firm said. Headwinds formed elsewhere, however. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels, a catalyst for futures much of December, started the week on a weaker note. NatGasWeather said its estimates for LNG feed gas demand fell over the weekend to around 10.2-10.5 Bcf/d, off around 1 Bcf/d from recent highs. NGI data showed volumes hovering around 10.5 Bcf/d Monday. At the same time, despite a second vaccine being made available this week in the United States, the pandemic continues to surge across the Lower 48, raising concerns about commercial and industrial energy demand. The pandemic also is intensifying overseas, with Great Britain reporting a new strain of the virus and imposing new economic restrictions to curb outbreaks. Several European countries and Canada barred travelers from Britain in hopes of keeping at bay the newly discovered and highly infectious variant of coronavirus that is surging in London. The new strain threatened to throw a wrench into the global economic recovery as well as a rebound in energy demand. Gas futures fell early in the trading day alongside oil prices and major stock indexes in the United States and Europe. Downward pressure on gas prices early Monday was likely “due to a sell-off in equities and oil triggered by new Covid-19 lockdowns in Europe and fears regarding virus mutations,”

Natural Gas Futures Jump on Expectations for Colder Conditions and Lofty Storage Withdrawal - Natural gas futures advanced Tuesday on forecasts for colder weather and a bullish withdrawal from storage. Improved liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels added a dose of optimism. The January Nymex contract climbed 7.5 cents day/day and settled at $2.780/MMBtu. February rose 6.0 cents to $2.749. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. rose 5.5 cents to $2.870. Looking to the end of December, colder trends from the European weather model overnight helped drive trading early Tuesday, NatGasWeather said, and futures sustained the momentum throughout the day. While the American model held on to a milder outlook, the European dataset pointed to a substantial stretch of freezing temperatures over the Dec. 29-Jan. 3 timeframe. “Our verification data shows” the European model “performing better over the past 30 days, suggesting” the American dataset “is too warm and needs to add demand,” NatGasWeather said. This “likely has given the natural gas markets hope the cold camp will get a rare victory.” LNG feed gas volumes had hovered just above 10.5 Bcf for several days – below the record levels reached earlier in December – but climbed back above 11 Bcf on Tuesday, according to NGI data, suggesting that export demand remains strong as winter takes hold in Asia and Europe. Traders also took note of optimistic forecasts in this week’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report, which will be released at noon ET on Wednesday. That is a day earlier than normal because of the Christmas holiday. Polls on Tuesday showed widespread expectations for a steep pull for the week ended Dec. 18. A Bloomberg survey showed withdrawal expectations ranging from 146 Bcf to 180 Bcf, with a median of 159 Bcf. A Reuters poll, meanwhile, landed at a median withdrawal of 160 Bcf, with pull estimates spanning from 142 Bcf to 180 Bcf. A Wall Street Journal survey found an average withdrawal expectation of 159 Bcf. Estimates ranged from decreases of 146 Bcf to 179 Bcf. NGI predicted a 159 Bcf withdrawal, above the 146 Bcf pull reported a year earlier and higher than the five-year average 127 Bcf withdrawal. Energy Aspects estimated a 160 Bcf pull and said it modeled a 10% increase in national heating degree days (HDD) during the report week, enough to lift residential/commercial demand by 4.8 Bcf/d week/week. The firm also noted a 0.3 Bcf/d drop in total supply during the week.

US working natural gas volumes in underground storage declines 152 Bcf: EIA  - US working natural gas stocks fell well below the five-year average last week, but within expectations, while Henry Hub futures fell following the announcement despite another above-average draw likely for the week in progress. Storage inventories decreased 152 Bcf to 3.574 Tcf for the week-ended Dec. 18 the US Energy Information Administration reported the morning of Dec. 23. The report was issued one day early because of the Christmas holiday. The withdrawal was slightly below an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 154 Bcf pull. Responses to the survey ranged from pulls of 135 to 172 Bcf. The withdrawal was above the 146 Bcf draw reported during the same week last year as well as the five-year average withdrawal of 127 Bcf, according to EIA data. Storage volumes now stand 278 Bcf, or 8.4%, above the year-ago level of 3.356 Tcf and 218 Bcf, or 6.5%, above the five-year average of 3.356 Tcf. In the week ended Dec. 18, US natural gas production dropped to an average 89.8 Bcf/d, according to data S&P Global Platts Analytics compiled. That figure was down about 300 MMcf/d week on week, and more than 2 Bcf/d below a late-November high for US output at over 92 Bcf/d. Recent supply-side weakness has been exacerbated by higher exports and strong domestic heating demand – factors that also contributed to last week's tighter supply balance and large storage withdrawal. In December, feedgas demand from US LNG export terminals is averaging its highest on record at over 11 Bcf/d as import prices in Northeast Asia push the $12/MMBtu level. The NYMEX Henry Hub January contract plummeted 17 cents to $2.61/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report at 10:30 am ET. The remaining winter strip, February and March, fell 15 cents to average $2.58/MMBtu, a decline of 5 cents from the week prior. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 134 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 25, which would shrink the surplus versus the five-year average by an additional 32 Bcf, despite demand being slightly muted by the holiday week. Milder weather has pushed residential and commercial demand down 1.3 Bcf/d. In addition, gas-fired burns in the power sector are on track to fall more than 2 Bcf/d week on week as much higher wind generation lowered gas generation. Warmer weather across the US resulted in lower heating load, and weaker draws in every region except for the East. Lower demand was met with a higher total US supply, led by an 800 MMcf/d boost in US production.

U.S. natgas futures slide over 6% on mild weather, small storage draw - U.S. natural gas futures dropped more than 6% to a near two-week low on Wednesday on forecasts for warmer-than-usual weather and a smaller-than-expected storage draw last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 152 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 18. That was less than the 160-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 146 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average withdrawal of 127 bcf. Front-month gas futures fell 17.2 cents, or 6.2%, to settle at $2.608 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Dec.11. "Near-term prices support has evaporated on a lower than expected, 152 bcf storage withdrawal in this morning's report and variable forecasts for dissipating cold by early January," said Daniel Myers, market analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston. "More cold (weather) will be needed in upcoming forecasts if the market is going to recover its footing going into the holidays and prevent a collapse to the January contract's prior lows," he added. Data provider Refinitiv estimated 436 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states, below the 30-year average of 458. HDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). The measure is used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses. Refinitiv projected average demand, including exports, would slip from 124.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) last week to 119.8 bcfd this week as the weather turns milder before rising to 127.9 bcfd next week with the expected arrival of more cold. Output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 91.0 billion bcfd so far in December. That compares with a seven-month high of 91.0 bcfd in November 2020 and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Natural gas futures in Europe and Asia rose to their highest levels in more than a year driven by a sharp increase in demand late in 2020, especially out of China, just as a cold spell in other parts of the region boosts demand for the fuel. China's liquefied natural gas imports hit a fresh peak on rising demand at the start of the heating season, data showed on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, has averaged 10.7 bcfd so far in December, which would top November's 9.8-bcfd record.

Natural Gas Futures Weighed Down by Weather, Production, LNG and Storage Concerns --Natural gas futures plummeted Wednesday as weather models continued to seesaw, production increased, export cargoes were reportedly cancelled, and the latest government inventory print fell shy of market expectations. The January Nymex contract settled at $2.608/MMBtu, down 17.2 cents day/day. February fell 16.1 cents to $2.588. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., meanwhile, dropped 18.0 cents to $2.690. After showing a warmer outlook earlier in the week when compared to the European weather model, the American Global Forecast System (GFS) trended colder overnight into Wednesday and added 15 heating degree days (HDD), according to NatGasWeather. The European model, however, shed eight HDD, bringing it close to the GFS. “Prices gained overnight on the colder-trending GFS, then sold off after the European [model] disappointed on warmer trends,” NatGasWeather said. “The coming pattern is still better than it’s been much of the past two months,” the forecaster added, but with the European data “teasing colder systems yesterday and then backing off today, it’s clearly led to disappointment.” Additionally, the firm noted that trading opened with news that Lower 48 production was up nearly 1 Bcf compared to last week’s 91 Bcf/d. With weather-driven demand dubious, rising output “could be viewed as quite disappointing.” Liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels, meanwhile, remained strong at around 11.4 Bcf Wednesday, according to NGI data. But news media reports of LNG cargo cancellations for February injected some added skepticism for futures traders. Bloomberg reported market rumors of several U.S. cancellations for February, though a lack of shipping availability and aggressively high charter rates were cited as reasons, as opposed to waning demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) then released its latest storage assessment at Noon ET, reporting a withdrawal of 152 Bcf for the week ended Dec. 18. The result was bullish compared to a year earlier, but it fell short of market expectations for a pull of 159-160 Bcf. The prompt month was down about 9.0 cents a few minutes ahead of the storage report and it sunk deeper after EIA’s release. The latest withdrawal was more than the 146 Bcf pull recorded a year earlier and greater than the five-year average 127 Bcf withdrawal, according to EIA. Demand during the covered week was driven by a powerful storm that heaped snow and freezing temperatures on major markets throughout the Northeast. The market, however, was expecting an even steeper pull.

Light Christmas Eve Trading Ends with Natural Gas Futures in Rudolph Red  - Natural gas traders on Thursday couldn’t be convinced to go long despite the extended Christmas holiday weekend, especially with the weather data turning milder with every run of the latest models. The January Nymex gas futures contract settled Christmas Eve at $2.518, down 9.0 cents. February slipped 7.6 cents to $2.512. Spot gas prices, which were for gas delivered through Monday, were mostly lower amid the mostly light holiday weekend demand outlook. However, a chilly, wet forecast in the Northeast sparked big gains there. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. ultimately climbed 9.0 cents to $2.780. Still digesting the most recent storage data, traders appeared cautious early in Thursday’s Nymex futures session. January prices were slightly lower early in the day but generally stayed within a few cents of Wednesday’s close. However, with yet another warmer turn in the weather models, prices moved decidedly lower ahead of the Christmas Day holiday. “There’s still several days left to go in the latest midday Global Forecast System run, but it’s already lost 14 heating degree days [HDD] for the first 11 days of the new run,” NatGasWeather said. Now, both the American and European models “aren’t quite cold enough overall for the next 15 days.” Any lost demand may keep storage inventories in check in the coming weeks. On Thursday, the few traders that hadn’t quite punched the clock were still digesting the latest storage inventory report. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday that inventories fell 152 Bcf for the week ending Dec. 18, a pull that came in well short of the near 160 Bcf draw that the market had been expecting.

Weekly Natural Gas Prices Sink Amid Seasonally Mild Weather, Weaker Demand - In an abbreviated four-day trading week ahead of the Christmas holiday, weekly cash prices gave up ground amid mild temperatures and light heating demand across much of the Lower 48. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the Dec. 21-24 period fell 45.5 cents to $2.790. Comfortable conditions moved in early and hung around until mid-week across much of the central and eastern half of the United States, with highs of 30s to 50s across northern regions and 60s and 70s over southern areas. As the trading week closed, PNGTS was down $3.145 to $5.240, while Tenn Zone 6 200L was off $4.865 to $3.640, and SoCal Border Avg. was down 50.0 cents to $3.295. While not expected to prove consistently bullish, forecasters anticipated stronger demand in the final days of December and into early January. NatGasWeather looked for a spike in demand in some regions over the long holiday weekend, beginning with subzero Upper Midwest temperatures on Thursday following blasts of snow. Freezing conditions were anticipated across wider swaths of the nation’s midsection and into eastern regions over the course of the weekend, with “frosty lows” ranging from below zero to the 20s over large portions of the country. “Periods of stronger demand are expected” late in December “as a frigid cold shot with rain and snow sweeps across the eastern half of the United States,” NatGasWeather said late Thursday. “Additional systems with stronger demand are expected to follow Dec. 29-30, Jan. 2-4, and again around Jan. 7-8.” However, the firm added, “mild breaks in between is what prevents the coming pattern from being considered more intimidating.” It “is a better pattern with bouts of stronger demand, just without sustained cold that would lead to solidly bullish weather sentiment.” Despite the short week, Nymex futures made a splash, falling sharply across the curve as a milder turn in the most recent weather models and a disappointing storage report hammered prices. Futures had moved higher earlier in the week, with the January contract picking up more than 7.0 cents on Tuesday as weather models pointed to chilly conditions at the end of the month that were seen spilling over into January. However, both the American and European models backed off the intensity of the cold in more recent runs. The warmer trend set the stage for a midweek sell-off along the Nymex strip. Prices on Wednesday already were lower ahead of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage inventory, which was released a day earlier than usual because of the Christmas Eve federal holiday. With the reported withdrawal coming in several Bcf below what the market had been expecting, the January Nymex contract spiraled even lower. The EIA said that inventories fell 152 Bcf for the week ending Dec. 18, but analysts had pegged the draw closer to 160 Bcf.

Two Natural Gas Rigs Added in U.S. Ahead of Holiday - The U.S. natural gas rig count climbed two units to 83 for the holiday-shortened week ending Wednesday (Dec. 23), while Canada saw a notable drop-off in activity ahead of the Christmas holiday, according to the latest figures from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). After some shuffling around in the major U.S. onshore plays, the overall domestic rig count added two units to finish at 348, including an increase of one oil-directed unit, offset by the loss of one miscellaneous unit. The combined U.S. tally finished the week more than 450 units below the 805 rigs active at this time last year, according to the BKR numbers, which are based on data provided in part by Enverus. Land drilling increased by one rig, while one rig returned to action in the Gulf of Mexico during the week. One directional unit and one horizontal unit were added, while vertical rigs remained unchanged week/week. The Canadian rig count fell 20 rigs week/week to drop to 82, with the net decline split evenly between oil- and gas-directed units. The Canadian count ended the week 17 rigs behind its year-ago total. The combined North American rig count finished the week at 430, down from 904 in the year-ago period. Among the major plays, the Haynesville Shale turned in a strong week of growth, adding three rigs to up its total to 43. That’s down slightly from 49 a year ago. Elsewhere among plays, the Cana Woodford added one rig, while the Denver Julesburg-Niobrara, Marcellus Shale and Permian Basin each dropped a rig from their respective totals. Broken down by state, Louisiana led with a three-rig increase on the week, while Oklahoma saw a net increase of two rigs for the period. Texas added one rig overall, while Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico and West Virginia each saw one rig depart, according to BKR.

Fossil, Renewable Energy Advocates Alike Applaud Passing of $2.3T Spending Bill -- Proponents of the natural gas, oil and renewable energy sectors all found something to like about a $2.3 trillion omnibus spending and coronavirus relief package passed late Monday by the House and Senate. Infrastructure The American Petroleum Institute (API) praised legislators for including several provisions from Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-AK) American Energy Innovation Act, including parts of two bipartisan bills to promote carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). “We commend the bipartisan group of lawmakers who have moved this legislation one step closer to becoming law and who understand the important role of advancing innovation and technology in addressing the risk of climate change,” said API’s Stephen Comstock, vice president of corporate policy. He added, “We urge the president to swiftly sign this bill into law, and we encourage the next Congress and incoming administration to continue to focus on bipartisan climate solutions like CCUS, which can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from multiple industry sectors and sources and that help build on the progress the natural gas and oil industry is making in improving environmental performance.” The spending package also greenlights the bipartisan Protecting our Infrastructure of Pipelines and Enhancing Safety Act (PIPES ACT) of 2020, an update of the PIPES Act of 2016 signed into law by President Obama. The original legislation was championed by Sens. Deb Fischer (R-NE) and Tammy Duckworth (D-IL). The PIPES Act is aimed at improving safety and curbing methane emissions from the U.S. pipeline network through modernization and strengthening of the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). The PIPES Act “has been years in the making,” said API’s Robin Rorick, vice president of midstream and industry operations, who added that the Act “takes important steps to ensure the safety of our nation’s pipeline system for communities and the environment.” Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA) CEO Amy Andryszak applauded the PIPES Act passing as well, saying it will “provide PHMSA with the necessary resources to continue its important work overseeing our nation’s pipeline infrastructure. “New funding for our nation’s pipeline safety program and updates to PHMSA’s regulations to reflect the latest technologies and practices will both enhance safety and benefit the environment.” The PIPES Act has been amended since its introduction in order to further reduce methane emissions from transportation infrastructure, and provide PHMSA new rulemaking and inspection resources, INGAA said. Key provisions of the PIPES Act include updates to PHMSA’s methane leak detection and repair regulations; increased funding for state and federal pipeline safety regulatory agencies; modernized safety regulations for liquefied natural gas export facilities; and strengthened safety regulations for local gas distribution systems.

 Oil drilling 150 miles off Florida coast prompts dire warning— Exploratory drilling began this week for an offshore oil well just 150 miles from South Florida, prompting a warning from 18 members of Congress, including the entire South Florida delegation, of the potential for “severe, even catastrophic, impact” if a spill occurs. The well, operated by the British-owned Bahamas Petroleum Company under a license from the Bahamian government, will be drilled as deep as 18,000 feet in an area southwest of Andros Island. It is believed to be the only active well in the region, although the status of oil fields nearby in Cuban waters is unclear. The drilling prompted an urgent letter from the 18 Congress members to Hubert Minnis, prime minister of the Bahamas, urging him to reconsider the quest for oil. “It has become clear that oil companies such as BPC have every intention to plow ahead despite red flags, which warn of the grave health, natural disaster, and environmental risks of drilling,” the letter to Minnis said. Even a minor accident that leads to a small oil spill could cost millions of dollars to Florida and disrupt tourism and businesses. Proponents of the drilling say the process is closely regulated and accidents are rare. “The way that they’re drilling today I think it’s perfectly safe,” said Ned Bowman, executive director of the Florida Petroleum Marketers Association. “We’re the most regulated industry in the world and I think you’ve got so many wells that are out there … if you look at that whole concept and how safe the industry is, I don’t have an issue with it.” But Floridians have scarred memories over another exploratory well that led to one of the worst environmental disasters in U.S history. The 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico dumped an estimated 164 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico and caused billions of dollars in economic and environmental damage along the entire Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Keys.

 Settlement calls for Texas oil company to pay for Cimarron River restoration after spill - A Texas oil company that spilled diesel and gasoline into the Cimarron River during a 2016 accident has agreed to pay $150,000 for restoration projects under a proposed settlement with the state. Fronk Oil Co. will pay for restoration to benefit fish, habitat, soil, water and other natural resources that were harmed or lost when a company tanker overturned on U.S. 64 in icy conditions, spilling 1,100 gallons of unleaded gasoline and diesel fuel into the river near the Colin Neblett Wildlife Management Area. “New Mexico residents were directly impacted by the contamination and this settlement will compensate for the losses they have suffered,” state Natural Resources Trustee Maggie Hart Stebbins said in a statement. A 1.5-mile section of the river downstream from the release was closed to public access for several months. The cleanup cost Fronk about $300,000. “Fronk Oil regrets the accident and has taken seriously our corporate responsibility to make things right,” Jerry D. Worsham II, the company’s attorney, said in a statement. “Fortunately, there does not appear to be any long-term impact.”

 Permian-Focused Fracking Consolidation Continues With Diamondback Deals -- Big Permian Basin producer Diamondback Energy FANG +0.9% announced a pair of big acquisitions designed to enhance its presence in America’s most active shale oil and gas basin on Monday. Together, the value of the deals totals to more than $3 billion, inclusive of assumed debt, and will rank Diamondback among the basin’s largest producers, along with ExxonMobil XOM -0.4%, Pioneer Natural ResourcesPXD -0.6%, ConocoPhillips COP -1.5% and Oxy.  The first deal announced by Diamondback in a release Monday morning details the acquisition of Guidon Operating LLC “in exchange for 10.63 million shares of Diamondback common stock and $375 million of cash,” a total value of about $862 million. Guidon holds about 32,500 acres in the Northern Midland Basin, and had a Q3 2020 estimated daily production of about 17,900 barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Guidon’s holdings include “395 estimated gross (324 net) horizontal locations with an average lateral length of over 10,500 feet.”Diamondback’s second deal involves the acquisition of QEP Resources, a multi-basin independent producer headquartered in Denver, Colorado. Diamondback saidit would purchase 100% of QEP in “an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $2.2 billion, including QEP’s net debt of $1.6 billion as of September 30, 2020.” Diamondback management said that QEP’s holdings in the Williston Basin would be deemed “non-core” assets, and used to either harvest cash flow or be divested, depending on market conditions after the transaction is finalized. QEP’s Permian holdings include “approximately 49,000 net acres in the Midland Basin primarily held by production allowing for capital efficient development,” and “Q3 2020 average Permian production of 30.5 MBO/d (47.6 MBOE/d).” Combined, Diamondback said the two new acquisitions would increase its Midland Basin holdings to 276,000 net surface acres and to a total of 429,000 net acres across the Permian region’s Midland and Delaware Basins. The highly-contiguous acreage positions of the three companies will enable Diamondback to take advantage of the economies of scale and other efficiencies that have become so prized as keys to reducing costs in the Permian and other shale basins across the country. “ Most importantly, the addition of this Tier-1 resource competes for capital right away in Diamondback’s current portfolio, and we will now be able to allocate most of our capital to the high-returning Midland Basin for the foreseeable future.”

 US oil, gas rigs fall by one on the week to 413, as Permian at highest level since May— The US oil and gas rig count decreased by one on the week to 413, rig data provider Enverus said Dec. 24, while Permian Basin rigs reached a level not seen in seven months. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up The decrease was from gas-directed rigs, which fell by one to 113 while oil rigs remained at 300 for a second straight week. The oil rig count has not been above 300 since late April 2020. "Typically, the industry experiences weather impact and seasonality around the holidays, but this year the rig count has continued to increase" with the exception of the current week, Evercore ISI analyst James West said in a Dec. 24 investor note. Since the first week in November, the rig count has risen 15% from 359. The Permian Basin of West Texas/New Mexico was the week's clear winner in rig gains, up by three rigs to 184, its highest level since May 2020. Since its late-August 2020 trough of 127, the Permian rig count has added 57 rigs and climbed 45%. But the quieter SCOOP-STACK play in Oklahoma also rose by three rigs on the week to 16, the highest it has been since April 2020. Other basins mostly either shed rigs or were stable week on week. However, the Marcellus Shale sited largely in Pennsylvania and surrounding states, gained one rig, for a total 31. Bakken, DJ, Eagle Ford lose rigs But the Bakken Shale mostly in North Dakota and the DJ Basin in Colorado, lost one rig apiece, for totals of 12 and eight respectively. The Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas lost two rigs, leaving 30. Basins that posted no weekly change were the Haynesville Shale of East Texas/Northwest Louisiana, at 46 rigs, and the Utica Shale mostly in Ohio, at six.

Study: Severe economic hit to Utah with Biden ban on new oil, gas wells -  — With climate change a cornerstone of his campaign and central to his proposed Cabinet picks, President-elect Joe Biden has vowed to put an end to any new oil and gas development on federal lands and federal waters.That promise, if enacted, would severely impact Utah and seven other western states with huge chunks of federal land, with a new study predicting staggering economic losses and extreme costs to human lives.Conducted by University of Wyoming professor Tim Considine at the request of the Wyoming Energy Authority, the study lays out these dire predictions of losses to those states over four years under a Biden administration:

• An average of 72,818 fewer jobs annually
• Lost wages totaling $19.6 billion
• Declining economic activity of $43.8 billion
• Tax revenues decreasing by $10.8 billion

These forecasted impacts play out in Utah, Alaska, California, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota and Wyoming.In Utah, the study says such a ban would cost 3,232 jobs on average each year during Biden’s inaugural term, $1.3 billion in oil and natural gas investments, losses in production valued at $650 million, a decrease of $255 million in tax revenue to the state, a drop of $1.4 billion in gross domestic product and $664 million in lost wages.Gov. elect Spencer Cox says such a ban is the wrong move for Utah. “A sudden ban on oil, gas and coal right now could crush Utah’s rural economies and further weaken the oil and gas economy. Plus we’re making progress on reducing carbon emissions through cleaner Tier 3 fuels, which now represent at least 75% of all fuel purchased in Utah,” he said. “ I’m looking forward to working with the Biden Administration to develop a more practical approach to energy policy.”

Scientist Dominic DiGiulio’s Work Illuminated How Fracking Affects People and Environment - -  People in communities across the nation have found themselves the participants in a fracking experiment.  The practice is controversial because of its potential impacts to public health and the environment, specifically, it can poison drinking water. After years of research, scientist Dominic DiGiulio made this link. He found that people’s groundwater can become contaminated under certain conditions. The pits that store fracking chemicals are one example. Such was the case in Pavillion, Wyoming, a community of roughly 230 people.Back in 2008, residents began complaining their water had a foul taste and smell. So the EPA came in to investigate. Led by DiGiulio, the team’s preliminary findings released three years later suggested fracking was to blame.But officials in Wyoming dismissed the findings as a political move.DiGiulio rejects that claim to this day.DiGiulio: When I worked with EPA, there was no desire with myself and my coworkers to ban fracking. That was never the goal. We were simply conducting an investigation on the impact on groundwater resources and people’s wells. So there was never any kind of goal to have any kind of political objective. Ours was simply a technical objective to better understand the impact of hydraulic fracturing on public health and the environment. But politics still found the scientists, and due to political pressure, EPA backed out of the study. DiGiulio, for his part, knew his work wasn’t done. DiGuilo retired from EPA in 2014 and went on to lead his own study. It was a massive effort with DiGiulio parsing decades of records. DiGiulio: I took about 18 months to actually go through the data once more. So it was a very time intensive process. I mean, there was a lot of data there. It was definitely lots of digging and going back to the beginning, back to the 1960s, and actually looking at every single record, all the well completion records, all the records on cement bond locks for well integrity, all the water well records. We basically did a very comprehensive review of the records out there just to get a much better understanding of what the problems were. DiGiulio’s research made the connection that he had started to draw back in 2011 with EPA, only this time, the investigation made his findings clearer. DiGiulio: Hydraulic fracturing started at the Pavillion field back in the 1960s and so the flowback that came from hydraulic fracturing was disposed in pits. So it was basically Diesel fuel-based fracking fluids that went into the pits, petroleum based fluids. So hydraulic fracturing, the actual process itself, didn’t impact domestic water wells but flowback from hydraulic fracturing was disposed into unlined pits which then contaminated groundwater. The saga in Pavillion, Wyoming, is ongoing. Residents reportedly still can’t drink their water and complain of health problems. DiGiulio says contained within this controversy are lessons for people living in the Mountain West.

 Comin' to America, Part 5 - Imports Remain Key to Rockies and West Coast Refiners' Crude Slates - PADDs 4 and 5 — the Rockies and the West Coast regions, respectively — are each outliers in the U.S. refining sector. Refineries in the Rockies, for example, are generally far smaller than those in other PADDs and, due to pipeline flows, source their crude oil from either Western Canada, the Bakken, or in-region production, including the Niobrara and Utah’s Uinta Basin. West Coast refineries, in turn, have no crude oil pipeline links with U.S. points to the east, and depend on a mix of imported crude from Canada, Latin America, and the Middle East, as well as domestic oil from California, Alaska, and rail receipts. Today, we conclude a series on region-by-region crude oil imports and refinery crude slates with a look at PADDs 4 and 5. As we said in Part 1, the Shale Revolution, combined with the development of the oil sands and other hydrocarbon resources in Western Canada, led to a dramatic decline in U.S. oil imports from OPEC countries in particular and, to a lesser extent, from non-OPEC countries (other than Canada) — and a big increase in imports from Canada. In 2005, the U.S. imported an average of 4.8 MMb/d from OPEC, 1.6 MMb/d from Canada, and 3.7 MMb/d from other non-OPEC countries, including 1.6 MMb/d from Mexico, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This situation is far different in 2020. In the first nine months of this year, imports from OPEC averaged about 930 Mb/d, while imports from Canada averaged 3.6 MMb/d, and imports from other non-OPEC countries averaged 1.5 MMb/d — Mexico’s slice of that averaged about 690 Mb/d. Part 2 focused on PADD 1 — the East Coast — which not only produces very little crude oil but has almost no oil pipelines. That means that nearly all of the oil refined in PADD 1 — domestic or imported — needs to be delivered by railroad tank cars or ships. We noted that East Coast refinery demand for oil averaged around 1.1 MMb/d for most of the past decade, but has plummeted by half (to less than 600 Mb/d) this year. PADD 1’s sources of oil supply shifted almost 100% imports in 2010-12 to a mix of imports and railed-in Bakken crude in 2013-15, then back to a preponderance of imports in the latter years of the decade. In Part 3, we looked at the Midwest. PADD 2 refineries for decades depended on a mix of domestic crude and imports from overseas, but since 2010 the region has nearly tripled its imports of Canadian crude — most of it the heavy-sour variety — and invested billions of dollars in cokers and other equipment so they can process that low-API, high-sulfur oil into valuable products like gasoline, low-sulfur diesel, and jet fuel.PADD 3 — the Gulf Coast — was front-and-center in Part 4. The region accounts for more than half of the U.S. refining capacity, and has undergone perhaps the biggest shift in crude-oil sourcing: 15 years ago, it was importing an average of more than 6 MMb/d, but in recent months has been receiving as little as 1.2 MMb/d from abroad. The 80% decline in Gulf Coast oil imports since the mid-2000s was made possible in part by big changes in the crude slates at refineries in Texas, Louisiana, and other PADD 3 states, mostly involving the swapping out of light-sweet crude from overseas with favorably priced light-sweet crude from the Permian and other U.S. shale plays.

BNSF train carrying North Dakota oil derails, starts on fire in Washington state — A Burlington Northern Santa Fe train carrying crude oil from North Dakota's Bakken oil fields derailed and caught fire late Tuesday morning, Dec. 22, in a small town in the far northwest part of the state. BNSF Railway spokesperson Courtney Wallace said in a statement that three of the 10 cars that derailed started on fire in Custer, a town of 370 residents just 25 miles south of the Canadian border, about 11:40 a.m. The train, which originated in North Dakota, was near Interstate 5 about 100 miles north of Seattle, and the Whatcom County Sheriff's Department said they had to evacuate a three-quarter mile radius around the derailment. The train was headed for the nearby town of Ferndale, Wallace said, which is near the Puget Sound. Late in the afternoon, the sheriff's office said in a Facebook post that the fire was under control. However, they said an evacuation order and local road closures were still in place. The sheriff urged town residents to continue to avoid the area, although the interstate was reopened about two hours after the fire started. A photo posted by the sheriff's department showed a huge cloud of black smoke rising into the air and residential homes nearby. Wallace said no injuries were reported to crew members onboard the train. She said the cause of the derailment is under investigation, with BNSF coordinating with authorities. The sheriff's department told the nearby Bellingham (Wash.) Herald that they were unsure if there was any damage to nearby structures or buildings. The number of people evacuated also wasn't available. The department and Wallace said the train was carrying the crude oil from North Dakota. The derailment and fire follows a decision last May in which the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration sided with North Dakota and Montana against a Washington state law requiring oil unloaded from trains have a vapor pressure under 9 pounds per square inch. The limit would fall below North Dakota's cap of 13.7 pounds per square inch, which the state argued was an industry standard. North Dakota Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem said in a statement that he was “pleased” with the PHMSA decision, according to an article by the Bismarck Tribune.

Train cars carrying crude oil derail and burn north of Seattle - Seven train cars carrying crude oil derailed Tuesday and five caught fire, sending a large black plume of smoke into the sky north of Seattle close to the Canadian border, authorities said. The derailment in the downtown Custer area closed nearby streets and spurred evacuation orders during a large fire response, Whatcom County officials said on Twitter. Interstate 5 was temporarily closed in the area in both directions. Later Tuesday, the Whatcom County Sheriff's Office tweeted that the fires were under control and the evacuation order had been lifted but roadblocks would remain in place. Fires at the site remained active, the Sheriff's Office added, and residents were asked to stay inside once they returned home. "Everyone's in danger at a scene like this, but fortunately there were no injuries," Sheriff Bill Elfo said at a news conference. Home to five oil refineries, Washington state sees millions of gallons of crude oil move by rail through the state each week, coming from North Dakota and Alberta, Canada, according to the state Department of Ecology. The seven cars derailed at about 11:46 a.m. Tuesday, BNSF Railway spokesperson Courtney Wallace said at the news conference. She said two people were on board the 108-car train headed from North Dakota to the Ferndale Refinery, owned by Phillips 66. "BNSF is working with local authorities to assess and mitigate the situation," the railway said on Twitter. "The cause of the incident is under investigation." The state Department of Ecology said a command center had been set up at the scene with the railway and federal Environmental Protection Agency officials. Matt Krogh, director of U.S. Oil & Gas Campaigns for the environmental group Stand.earth, is based in Bellingham near the derailment and told The Associated Press he could see the smoke. He said the incident was another example of how transporting crude oil by train – especially in large numbers of tankers — is "very, very dangerous." He cited the 2013 fiery derailment of a train carrying crude in Lac Megantic, Quebec, which killed 47 people, and a 2016 derailment in Mosier, Oregon, along the Columbia River that caused people to evacuate. Krogh said crude oil is volatile and there are often track maintenance concerns. Among other things, Krogh and his group would like to see a reduction in the number of tank cars allowed per shipment. "I think we got lucky today," he said, referring to the derailment in Custer. Democratic U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen, D-Wash., said in a statement Tuesday he was concerned about the derailment. Larsen is a senior member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. "I worked closely with the Obama administration to create strong rules to make the transport of oil by rail safer," Larsen said. "Clearly there may be more work to do." Custer, a small town of several hundred people, is about 100 miles (161 kilometers) north of Seattle.

Oil train derailed near site of earlier terrorist attempt, officials say (AP) — Federal and local authorities were investigating a fiery oil car train derailment north of Seattle near where two people were arrested last month and accused of attempting a terrorist attack on train tracks to disrupt plans for a natural gas pipeline. Seven train cars carrying crude oil derailed and five caught fire Tuesday, sending a large plume of black smoke into the sky close to the Canadian border. There were no injuries in the derailment about 100 miles (161 kilometers) north of Seattle Officials were asked about recent attempts to sabotage oil trains, but they said the investigation was just beginning. “We’ve not been able to get close enough to the site to make an evaluation,” Officials with the National Transportation Safety Board along with the FBI and other federal, state and local agencies were on the scene. During a news conference Wednesday, officials spoke about their disaster planning they had done to prepare for incidents similar to what occurred with the train derailment. They also spoke about how the impact of the derailment to the surrounding environment could have been worse. "As far as crude oil derailments and fires, this could not have occurred in a better location with regard to minimizing environmental impact," said David Byers, who manages disaster response for the Washington Department of Ecology. Last month federal authorities in Seattle charged two people with a terrorist attack on train tracks, saying they placed “shunts” on Burlington Northern Santa Fe tracks. “Shunts” consist of a wire strung across the tracks, mimicking the electrical signal of a train. The devices can cause trains to automatically brake and can disable railroad crossing guards. Authorities said the pair were opposed to the construction of a natural gas pipeline across British Columbia when they interfered with the operation of a railroad in Washington state. The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force has said there have been dozens of such cases involving BNSF tracks since January, with a message claiming responsibility posted on an anarchist website early this year. In one, shunts were placed in three locations in northwest Washington on Oct. 11, prompting emergency brakes to engage on a train that was hauling hazardous materials and flammable gas. The braking caused a bar connecting the train’s cars to fail; the cars became separated and could have derailed, authorities said.

BP Divests Stake in Alaska Pipeline -Harvest Alaska  has acquired BP Pipelines Inc.’s  midstream ownership interests, parent company Harvest Midstream reported late last week.The deal, which received approval from the Regulatory Commission of Alaska on Dec. 14, immediately gives Harvest ownership of BP’s approximately 49-percent interest in the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) and 49 percent of Alyeska Service Co. and other Alaska midstream interests, Harvest Midstream noted in a written statement. The parent firm added that Alyeska will continue to operate TAPS as it has for decades.“The completion of this acquisition is a critical milestone for Harvest,” remarked Harvest Midstream CEO Jason Rebrook. “TAPS is an icon of American ingenuity and has a proven track record of safe and responsible operations with strong relationships in the communities it touches. We are committed to positively building upon this great legacy and we look forward to partnering with Alyeska, other TAPS owners and the State of Alaska for years to come.” The 800-mile (1,287-kilometer) TAPS transports North Slope oil from the Prudhoe Bay oilfield to the Valdez Marine Terminal, boasting a capacity of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day, Harvest Midstream stated.

Shell Marks Another $4.5 Billion in Oil, Gas Assets Up for Write-Down in 4Q -- Royal Dutch Shell plc expects to write down between $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion during the fourth quarter because of impairments, asset restructuring and onerous contracts. It would be the third time this year the Anglo-Dutch supermajor has written down assets. In a fourth quarter update, Shell said it expects to take a partial impairment on the Appomattox asset in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) because of sub-surface updates. The project, located about 80 miles south of New Orleans, began production in May 2019. It was the first commercial discovery to ramp up in the Norphlet formation. It also expects charges on oil products related to the previously announced transformation of the refinery portfolio, as well as on onerous contracts in the Integrated Gas (IG) segment. Shell expects IG production to be between 900,000 and 940,000 boe/d in 4Q2020, which is above its previous forecast and higher than output of 820,000-860,000 boe/d in the third quarter. However, the company said the impact to earnings is likely to be “limited” because of its production sharing contracts.Liquefaction volumes are expected to be between 8.0-8.6 million tons, while trading and optimization results are expected to be “below average” in the quarter, according to Shell. Around 80% of the company’s term LNG sales this year have been linked to oil prices, with a price lag of up to six months, management said. Shell is one of the world’s largest LNG traders. The exploration and production giant said “significant margining outflows” have impacted cash flow from operations in the final three months of the year, and the full quarter impact is subject to commodity price changes and forward curves through Dec. 31. Shell in October slashed its workforce by up to 9,000 people, a reduction seen by management as simplifying the organizational structure and helping to deliver “sustainable” annual cost savings of $2-2.5 billion by 2022. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) analysts said Shell’s 4Q update pointed to generally weaker results across segments versus their model, with marketing guidance, upstream volumes and higher guided underlying operating expenditures quarter/quarter “key moving pieces.” The TPH team said Shell missed their projections in the upstream and IG segment, but downstream and chemicals operational results fared better versus estimates. Shell in 2Q2020 recorded one-time quarterly impairments totaling $16.4 billion because of withering energy demand and low prices, with charges for QCLNG and Prelude floating LNG in the Browse Basin. It followed that with another nearly $1 billion write-down in October, focused again on Prelude.

Work Suspended on Transmountain Pipeline Following Accidents in Alberta, BC - Work was suspended Friday until Jan. 4, 2021 on the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project as a result of construction contractor accidents.  Pipeline president Ian Anderson said, “Trans Mountain is proactively taking the step to temporarily stand down construction to review, reset and refocus our efforts, and those of our contractors and their workers.” The work suspension follows accidents at both ends of the 1,150-kilometer (690-mile) oil conduit across Alberta and British Columbia: an October fatality near the Edmonton inlet and a serious injury this week at the outlet in the Burnaby suburb of Vancouver. Construction is about 20% complete on the project that would nearly triple the pipeline’s capacity to 890,000 b/d as an export route for Canada’s top natural gas users, Alberta thermal oil sands plants. “Next year, 2021, will see peak construction for the project, with thousands of people working in hundreds of sites,” said the work suspension announcement. “It is during this time when one of the greatest risks to the project becomes worker safety.”  Along with pipeline company and construction contractor reviews, investigations are underway by the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) and workplace safety authorities in Alberta and B.C. Detailed route approval proceedings continue before the CER. The cases include review of a detour that Trans Mountain agreed to build around the Coldwater native tribe, which says the original route endangered the water supply of its southern B.C. reservation.

Mexico Natural Gas Prices Hit 21-Month High in November - Natural gas prices in Mexico reached a 21-month high in November, averaging $3.45/MMBtu, according to the latest IPGN monthly natural gas price index published by Comisión Reguladora de Energía (CRE). CRE compiles the index based on day-ahead spot prices reported anonymously by marketers. CRE used 298 transactions reported by 28 marketers for a total volume of 6.48 Bcf/d to calculate the latest index, up from 238 deals from 24 companies for 6.15 Bcf/d in the similar period last year. Due to Mexico’s growing dependence on pipeline gas imports from the United States, Mexico gas prices are closely tied to prices at liquid trading locations in the United States, namely Henry Hub, Houston Ship Channel and Waha. U.S. prices were boosted in November by surging exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which hit a record monthly high after plunging to their lowest levels in more than two years over the summer amid the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). A cold start to the winter in Asia combined with fewer pandemic-related restrictions has driven spot LNG prices to their highest level in over two years, researchers said. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA also forecast monthly average spot prices of $3.01/MMBtu for full-year 2021, up from a forecast average of $2.07/MMBtu for 2020. The bullish outlook is driven by higher heating demand, rising LNG exports and domestic production declines.

Private Sector Upstream Industry in Mexico Said Committed to Developing Nation's Oil and Gas Private firms operating in the Mexican upstream oil and gas sector have maintained their commitment to the country despite the impacts of coronavirus and have even upped exploratory activity this year. This is according to a panel of experts who spoke during a virtual event last week organized by the #WeTweetEnergy group, an online community of Mexico energy experts. “Despite the pandemic, this year the effect of coronavirus in Mexico hasn’t been felt as it has been felt on the global level. On the contrary, we’ve seen positive results,” said Selene González, external affairs officer for trade group Asociación Mexicana de Empresas de Hidrocarburos (Amexhi). The year/year increase in private sector upstream investment in the first nine months of this year was $290 million, González said. Even as the Mexican government has suspended exploration and production (E&P) bid rounds, more than 100 contracts from rounds held during the previous administration continue to advance. While there is no sign of new rounds, González said there is over $40 billion committed from private firms in the upstream. Private sector oil production is also expected to close 2020 at 57,000 b/d, up 20% from full-year output in 2019. Energy consultant and former commissioner at upstream regulator Comisión Reguladora de Hidrocarburos (CNH) Gaspar Franco said that part of the reason for the continuation of activity is that most private operators are still in the exploration stage. In Mexico, when the pandemic caused the shutdown of much of the economy back in April, E&P was deemed an essential activity and work continued basically as usual for many firms. “Now it looks like it is strategic for companies to continue exploration,” he said, adding that despite coronavirus and the deep unpredictability of prices, “no one is going to leave, but there will be adjustments in plans.”

Tax Break or No, Mexico's Pemex Likely to Require More Government Support, Fitch Says - Mexican state oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) would require more government support over the coming years if it wants to increase capital expenditures (capex) without taking on more debt, even if proposed tax breaks for the firm are passed by legislators, according to Fitch Ratings. Pemex rigs Senator Armando Guadiana, a member of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena coalition, has introduced a bill that would see heavily indebted Pemex’s profit-sharing duty reduced to 35% from the current effective rate of 58%. The current rate is scheduled to decrease to 54% in 2021, which would remain the effective rate if Guadiana’s bill fails to pass, said the Fitch analyst team led by Lucas Aristizabal. “Fitch’s base case for the company already incorporates the assumption that Mexico would cover the expected negative free cash flow [FCF] projected for the next few years,” analysts said. They estimated that the proposed tax break would reduce Pemex’s negative FCF by about $3 billion/year on average going forward. If the bill does not pass, Fitch expects Pemex’s negative FCF to be about $15.8 billion on average over the next few years. The proposed legislation also aims to increase Pemex’s tax deductions and remove profit-sharing duties from production used for self-consumption, the Fitch team said. Learn More - LNG Insight The bill, if passed, would allow Pemex to deduct the highest of either 15.5% or $9.80/bbl for most of its oil production, up from 12.5% or $6.10 currently. Pemex’s 2019 average pre-royalties lifting costs of about $10.30 ($14.10 including production taxes in 2019) “are higher than the currently allowed tax deductions, and the proposed amendment would bring the allowed tax deductions closer to the company’s production costs,” Fitch analysts said.

UK to End Support for Natural Gas Export, Other Foreign Fossil Fuel Projects- The UK would end government-funded financial support for overseas oil, natural gas and coal projects under a plan announced this month by Prime Minister Boris Johnson as the country continues to jockey for position in the global fight against climate change. The policy would end taxpayer support for export finance, aid funding and trade promotion of foreign fossil fuel projects. Over the last four years, the government said it has supported 21 billion pounds, or about $28 billion, worth of UK oil and gas exports through trade promotion and export finance. The government has launched a review of the policy with the industry and other stakeholders. The goal is to implement the policy by the start of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in November 2021, which will be held in Glasgow, Scotland. Johnson said the UK Export Finance (UKEF) department, the country’s export credit agency, would continue to consider applications for support in the oil and gas sector as the policy review continues. The UKEF helps UK companies by providing insurance to exporters and guarantees to banks to share the risks of providing export finance. For example, export credit agencies have become increasingly important providers of funding for natural gas liquefaction projects across the world as they have grown in size over the years. Johnson’s announcement, made at the Climate Ambition Summit earlier this month, came just weeks after he laid out a plan to cut the UK’s emissions by at least 68% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The prime minister also unveiled last month his “Ten Point Plan” for a so-called green industrial revolution, which aims to support alternative energy and accelerate emissions reductions. Leading groups such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the International Energy Agency have called for an end or reduction to government funding for fossil fuel projects.

LNG Could Drive $11 Billion of Australian Natural Gas Project FIDs in 2021, Says Wood Mackenzie -As the pandemic eases and the global economy recovers, $11 billion of Australian natural gas projects could be sanctioned as soon as next year, according to a report released this month by consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The country has helped drive growth in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in recent years and exports are expected to drive the next wave of Australian final investment decisions (FID) next year. “After doing everything possible to tighten belts this year, Australian operators will open their wallets and start spending,” said Wood Mackenzie senior analyst Daniel Toleman. “The backlog of FIDs will begin to clear as a fresh round of projects are sanctioned. But for this to occur, there has to be continuing improvement in the macro-environment and prices trending up.” The first project expected to be sanctioned next year is Mitsui E&P Australia’s Waitsia natural gas field. The project would export LNG from the North West Shelf with production starting in late 2023. Next, Santos Ltd. is expected to sanction the Barossa gas field in the Northern Territory late in 2Q2021. Barossa would backfill the Darwin LNG terminal when the Bayu-Undan field stops production. [Want to know how global LNG demand impacts North American fundamentals? To find out, subscribe to LNG Insight.] Woodside Petroleum Ltd. is also expected to give the Scarbrough natural gas field the greenlight. The field would feed a second expansion train at the Pluto LNG terminal in Western Australia. Request Information about NGI's Price Index Data “Woodside will sanction the project without contracting any additional LNG, taking on exposure to the spot LNG price,” Toleman said. “This is a bold strategy which allows them to take advantage of strengthening near-term market fundamentals.” Wood Mackenzie also expects Australian Industrial Energy to sanction the Port Kembla natural gas import terminal to supply the East Coast market. FID is expected in 1Q2021, the firm said. LNG imports will become the marginal cost of supply in the country, the firm said, adding that domestic prices would rise as they move towards global LNG prices, including the cost of regasification. “This is positive news for upstream players with uncontracted gas.” Last year marked a record increase in global LNG production, driven primarily by new liquefaction trains and supply ramp-ups in Australia, Russia and the United States, according to the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL). The group said LNG production grew by 13% year/year in 2019 to 354.7 million tons (Mt). Australia was the second largest LNG producer in the world with 75.39 Mt of production, behind Qatar, which had 77.80 Mt, according to GIIGNL. The United States was the third largest LNG producer with 33.75 Mt.

Norway supreme court verdict opens Arctic to more oil drilling  (Reuters) - Norway’s supreme court upheld government plans for Arctic oil exploration on Tuesday, dismissing a lawsuit by campaigners who said they violated people’s right to a healthy environment. While most of Norway’s oil output flows from south of the Arctic, the government believes the greatest untapped potential lies in the Barents Sea off Europe’s northernmost coast. Tuesday’s verdict upheld rulings by two lower courts, rejecting arguments by Greenpeace and the Nature and Youth group that a 2015-2016 oil licensing round giving awards to Equinor and others had breached Norway’s constitution. While the case was specifically about ten exploration licenses awarded four years ago, the campaigners had hoped that their appeal would set a precedent limiting the oil industry’s Arctic expansion. Norway is western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, with a daily output of around 4 million barrels of oil equivalent. “The supreme court is rejecting the appeal,” Chief Justice Toril Marie Oeie said as she announced the verdict, which saw 11 of the 15 judge panel rule in favour of the government, while 4 said the environmental groups should have won. “This means today’s youth lacks fundamental legal protection from environmental damage jeopardising our future... This is shocking and we are furious,” the Nature and Youth group said on Twitter in response to the ruling. The plaintiffs said pumping more oil would lead to increased climate-warming carbon dioxide emissions and ultimately violate Norway’s constitution as well as its commitments under the Paris climate agreement and the European Convention on Human Rights. The majority concluded, however, that parliament and the government had broad authority to award new oil acreage. “A broad majority in parliament has repeatedly rejected proposals to end Norwegian oil extraction,” the judges said. The Ministry of Energy and Petroleum has announced plans for another round of Arctic licensing awards, setting an application deadline for early next year.

Russia admits to worlds largest Arctic oil spill - Some 21,000 tons of oil poured into the surrounding ground and waterways after a diesel oil tank belonging to a subsidiary of Russian metals giant Nornickel collapsed on May 29.  Kirill Kukhmar / TASS Russian authorities said the fuel spill at an Arctic power station earlier in 2020 was the largest in world history, a top emergencies official said Thursday. Some 21,000 tons of oil poured into the surrounding ground and waterways near the city of Norilsk after a diesel oil tank belonging to a subsidiary of Russian metals giant Nornickel collapsed on May 29.  “Such an amount of liquid diesel fuel has never been spilled in the history of mankind,” the state-run RIA Novosti news agency quoted Deputy Emergency Minister Alexander Chupriyan as telling reporters. “We already trapped [the fuel] in the Arctic zone,” he said.A team of Nornickel-funded scientists, meanwhile, struck a more optimistic tone with their discovery of the five polluted rivers’ self-cleaning abilities, according to their final report cited by the state-run TASS news agency Wednesday.“The microflora in the studied waters has adapted to oil products and is able to participate in their decomposition,” said members of the so-called Great Norilsk Expedition organized by the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences in August.Nornickel is currently contesting a $2 billion damages claim with Russia’s state environmental watchdog. A different Nornickel-commissioned report said last month that the oil spill was “inevitable” due to design flaws, management failures and rising temperatures in the region.

Russia's crude oil exports drop 10% in January-October -- Due to lower demand and the OPEC+ deal, Russia’s crude oil exports declined by 10.4 percent in volume year over year in January to October, data from the Russian federal customs, cited by local cargo analytics outlet SeaNews, showed.  The value of Russia’s crude oil exports plunged by more than 40 percent in the same period due to the lower oil prices compared to the average price of oil in the first ten months of 2019. The value of Russian crude oil exports plummeted by 40.6 percent between January and October 2020, and stood at US$60.326 billion, according to data from the Russian federal customs service.  In October 2020 alone, the amount of Russian crude oil exports fell by 25.3 percent compared to October 2019, and dropped 0.9 percent compared to September 2020. The value of Russian crude exports plunged by 51.9 percent annually in October, in which the exports were worth US$5.13 billion.  For most of January through October 2020, Russia was part of the OPEC+ agreement to curtail supply, except in March and early April, when Russia and Saudi Arabia disagreed on how to manage oil supply to the market when demand was crashing due to the pandemic. The current production cuts began in May 2020 and are much deeper than in the previous deal.  After nearly a week of debates early this month, the OPEC+ group decided it would ease the current cuts by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from January, so the OPEC+ production cuts would stand at 7.2 million bpd, instead of 7.7 million bpd. Ministers of the OPEC+ pact will be meeting monthly to assess the situation on the market and decide on production policy for the following month. The next ministerial meeting is slated for January 4. Despite renewed fears about oil demand due to the new coronavirus strain, the leader of the non-OPEC group in the OPEC+ pact, Russia, is reportedly still in favor of another 500,000 bpd increase in the alliance’s oil production from February.  

Iran welcomes Russian investment in oil sector- Zanganeh - Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said his country welcomes the Russian companies’ investment making in its oil sector, Shana reported. The minister made the remarks after his meeting with the Russia Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov in Moscow at Monday night. Saying that the expansion of bilateral relations has been one of the major subject discussed during his meeting with the Russian side, the minister reiterated, “We have a good cooperation with the Russian companies, and this cooperation is going to be increased in the fields of oil and gas and related equipment.” "We recognize Russia as a strategic partner, and this partnership is not something that can be changed in a warm or cold atmosphere in the international arena," Zanganeh said, adding, “If the Russian companies want to work in Iran, they must become partner with Iranian companies and make the most use of Iranian capacities through negotiation with their Iranian counterparts to achieve the desired results.” The Iranian oil minister continued: "Iran's ambassador to Russia and his colleagues at the embassy were supposed to follow the agreements. If it were not for the coronavirus pandemic, they could have done it very simply, but in the current situation, we can establish communication by observing the health protocols."

Oil prices fall amid worries over new coronavirus strain Oil prices slid in early trade on Monday as a fast-spreading new coronavirus strain in the United Kingdom raised concerns that tighter restrictions there and in other European countries could stall a recovery in the global economy and its need for fuel. Brent crude dropped 97 cents, or 1.9%, to $51.29 a barrel by 0103 GMT after rising 1.5% and touching its highest since March last Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 83 cents, or 1.7%, to $48.27 a barrel after also climbing 1.5% on Friday to its highest level since February. Monday's declines came after oil prices marked seven straight weeks of gains last week as investors focused on the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines. "A new variant of the coronavirus in Britain and tighter travel restrictions in Europe sparked fears over slower economic recovery, prompting investors to unwind long positions," said Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at commodities broker Fujitomi Co. "The oil market has been on a bull trend in the past month or so, ignoring negative factors, amid an optimism that a widening vaccine rollout would revive global growth, but investors' rosy expectations for 2021 have suddenly vanished," Saito said. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will chair an emergency response meeting on Monday to discuss international travel, in particular the flow of freight in and out of Britain as Covid-19 cases surged by a record number for one day. The headache comes as Johnson also seeks to hammer out a final accord on Brexit. The variant, which officials say is up to 70% more transmissible than the original, also prompted concerns about a wider spread, forcing several European countries to begin closing their doors to travelers from the United Kingdom. The negative sentiment also overshadowed a weekend deal among U.S. congressional leaders for a $900 billion coronavirus aid package. Adding to pressure, the oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by eight to 346 in the week to Dec. 18, the highest since May, Baker Hughes said on Friday, as producers keep returning to the wellpad with crude prices trading above $45 a barrel since late November.

Oil tumbles as new virus strain revives demand fears (Reuters) - Oil prices tumbled nearly 3% on Monday as a fast-spreading new coronavirus strain that has shut down much of Britain and led to tighter restrictions in Europe sparked worries about a slower recovery in fuel demand. Brent crude settled down $1.35, or 2.6%, at $50.91 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for delivery in January ended the session $1.36, or 2.8%, lower at $47.74 ahead of expiry. The more active February WTI contract fell $1.27, or 2.6%, to settle at $47.97 a barrel. Both contracts had lost as much as $3 earlier in the session, their biggest daily drop in six months. The strength in the U.S. dollar also weighed on oil markets. A strong greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil more expensive to holders of other currencies. “Reports of a new strain of the coronavirus have weighed on risk sentiment and oil. New mobility restrictions across Europe are also not helping as European oil demand will suffer,” Brent climbed above $50 last week for the first time since March, buoyed by optimism stemming from COVID-19 vaccines. But a new COVID-19 strain, said to be up to 70% more transmissible than the original, has renewed fears about the virus, which has killed about 1.7 million people worldwide. More countries closed their borders to Britain on Monday, causing travel chaos and raising the prospect of UK food shortages. “The new strain of the coronavirus in the UK has shown us that the vaccine optimism holding Brent above $50 per barrel could be deflated in a fleeting moment,” The new virus strain has already been detected in other countries, including Australia, the Netherlands and Italy. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the new strain had an impact on oil prices, adding that recovery of global oil markets was happening more slowly than previously expected and could take two to three years. “Travel restrictions over the next several weeks will complicate OPEC+ plans to gradually raise output,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. “The monthly meetings will be very tense and keep oil prices volatile until the virus spread is under control across both Europe and the U.S.” The negative sentiment largely overshadowed the rollout of a new vaccine in the United States, a deal among U.S. congressional leaders for a $900 billion coronavirus aid package and European regulatory approval on Monday for the use of the COVID-19 vaccine jointly developed by U.S. company Pfizer Inc and its German partner, BioNTech. The approval by Europe’s medicines regulator puts the region on course to start inoculations within a week.

Oil Rally Unravels On New COVID-19 Lockdowns -Oil sentiment turned negative as near-term problems with demand have finally moved to the front burner after weeks of increasingly bullish sentiment. Dozens of countries cut off travel to the UK over fears of a coronavirus mutation. Lockdowns have also grown tighter in multiple places in December. “The nightmare before Christmas scenario has set in, with a combination of the ‘mutant virus’ compounded by Brexit angst,” saidStephen Innes, chief market strategist at Axi. Goldman sees $65 oil. Despite the current challenges, Goldman is bullish on oil, expecting Brent to average $65 a barrel next year.Congress’ The $900 Covid-19 stimulus, combined with the omnibus spending bill, contained an array of energy-related provisions. The bill authorized $35 billion on a variety of renewable technologies over the next five years, and it extended tax credits. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce called it the most significant energy bill since 2007. The legislation also included a phase out of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a highly potent greenhouse gas found in refrigerants. With little fanfare, the U.S. legislated the most significant action on climate change in years. . Despite renewed fears about oil demand due to the new coronavirus strain, the leader of the non-OPEC group in the OPEC+ pact, Russia, is still in favor of another 500,000 bpd increase in the alliance’s oil production from February.  The long-distance Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline project, which would add a twin line to carry oil from Alberta to Canada’s Pacific Coast, has run into some trouble in recent weeks. Several safety mishaps, including the death of a worker, have forced the company to suspend work for the rest of the year.. Enbridge confirmed that a contractor working on Line 3 construction in Minnesota died in an accident on Friday. . Oil inventories at the Cushing hub declined to around 60 million barrels recently, heading towards normal levels.

Oil slides 2% as growing Covid case count weighs on demand projections - Oil dropped towards $50 a barrel on Tuesday, adding to losses from the previous session, as a mutant variant of the coronavirus in Britain revived concerns over demand recovery. Detection of the new variant prompted several countries to close their borders to Britain. The BBC cited France's Europe Minister as saying that the two countries would announce a deal to restart freight by Wednesday. Brent crude fell 83 cents, or 1.63%, to $50.08 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 95 cents, or 2%, lower at $47.02 per barrel. Both benchmarks slid nearly 3% on Monday, partly erasing recent gains driven by the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, seen as key to allowing a return to normal life. The latest rally culminated in Brent hitting $52.48, its highest since March, on Friday. Prices have then come down amid concerns about the virus spreading. Some see potential for prices to fall further. "The holiday malaise has set in on oil," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. "Now that we have stimulus done, and we still have concerns about the new strain of virus, people are heading to the sidelines," he said. Oil gained support from U.S. Congress approval of a $892 billion coronavirus aid package after months of inaction. In focus will be the latest U.S. oil inventory reports, expected to show crude stocks fell by 3.3 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute's report is due at 2130 GMT. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, are set to boost output by 500,000 barrels per day in January. There is no sign yet of any wavering induced by the price drop. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Monday said the rise in output should not result in a glut.

Oil Down Again As Covid Mutation Extends Demand Worries - Ship & Bunker --Despite it not affecting the dissemination of the vaccines or their efficacy, a mutation of the Covid virus in Britain once again caused traders to worry about demand recovery and propel two key benchmarks downward for a second session on Tuesday, albeit less severely. Brent declined 83 cents, or 1.6 percent, at $50.08 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell 95 cents, or 2 percent, to settle at $47.02. Stephen Innes, chief market strategist at Axi, said the oil market had been overbought and "The nightmare before Christmas scenario has set in, with a combination of the 'mutant virus' compounded by Brexit angst." Innes was referring to doubts over whether UK prime minister Boris Johnson can secure a post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union. Reuters followed through with a particularly downbeat story suggesting that hope for the end of the pandemic has been oversold and that the current gasoline refining margin of $9.52 per barrel "is lower than all but two of the last 10 years for this time of year." The news agency warned that the current price declines could spur hedge funds to unload positions and that June barrels trading nearly 80 cents per barrel higher than December barrels "suggests oversupply could return by the end of next year."   But despite the media hoopla over the Covid mutation (which scientists insist isn't particularly remarkable and won't obstruct the herd immunity that the vaccines will achieve by summer of 2021) and much made of other countries closing travel to Britain, good news on Tuesday came in the form of France's Europe minister saying his country and the UK would announce a deal to restart freight by Wednesday. Also, the U.S. Congress passed the second-biggest economic rescue package in American history as part of a massive $2.3-trillion year-end spending bill, which may support oil prices somewhat until the vaccines produce their desired effect. Still, Tuesday demonstrated the hypersensitivity of the energy community during these Covid crazed times, and Pavel Molchanov, energy research analyst at Raymond James & Associates Inc., also suggested that policy makers have overreacted to the Covid mutation: "This sudden, panicked action by government around the world points to the risk of even more widespread lockdowns and travel restrictions well into the new year."

Oil prices drop amid curb on air travels  -Oil prices drifted lower at the mid-week trading session in London. The plunge in crude oil prices is largely due to a surge in U.S. crude oil stockpiles and the travel restrictions put in place to limit a new mutant strain of the COVID-19 virus, putting pressure on already weak fuel demand. At the time of writing this report, Brent oil futures were down by 1.06% to $49.30 thereby dropping below the $50 mark. West Texas Intermediate futures lost over 1.5% to trade at $46.23. Tuesday’s data from the American Petroleum Institute printed a gain of 2.7 million barrels in U.S. crude oil supply for the week ending Dec. 18. The build was larger than the 3.25-million-barrel draw in forecasts prepared by energy experts and the previous week’s build of 1.973 million barrels. In a note to Nairametrics, Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, spoke on recent market fundamentals prevailing in the oil market: “And rubbing salt in the oil market wounds today, oil prices lurched lower, after yet another inventory build that was very much bearish to a consensus to what was penciled in by analysts.Oil traded lower again overnight with worries over the new virus variant and restricted mobility in most of Europe as demand fear resurfaces travel restrictions. And to assume this could be an isolated UK event might be unwise.”The oil cartel is expected to ensure that its crude oil production capacity meets the prevailing energy demand. However, the present situation highlights oil bears having a grip on the black liquid hydrocarbon market, at least for the near term until the COVID-19 caseloads get subdued.

Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. inventory draw - Oil prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday, boosted by draws in U.S. inventories of crude, gasoline and distillates that lifted investors' hopes for some return in fuel demand. Brent crude futures gained $1.12, or 2.24%, to settle at $51.20 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 2.34%, or $1.10, higher at $48.12 per barrel. U.S. crude inventories fell by 562,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 18 to 499.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Gasoline stocks fell by a surprise 1.1 million barrels in the week to 237.8 million barrels, the EIA said, while distillate stockpiles fell by 2.3 million barrels in the week to 148.9 million barrels, more than expected. "Overall, what this report reflects is that we're starting to see continued improvement in demand," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. "It reflects that we're seeing a market that's getting more in balance." A falling U.S. dollar also supported prices. A weak greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities such as crude oil cheaper to holders of other currencies. Investors also kept an eye on Nigeria, where supply disruptions helped lift prices. Exxon Mobil Corp issued a force majeure on the Qua Iboe crude oil export terminal last week after a fire hit the facility and injured two workers. A source told Reuters production is expected to resume in early January. The stream was expected to load about 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December and 150,000 bpd in January. Still, oil markets remain jittery about the future recovery of oil demand as a new, highly infectious variant of the novel coronavirus has hit Britain, prompting a slew of countries to shut their borders to the country. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, though remained elevated as more businesses faced restrictions and consumers hunkered down amid rising COVID-19 cases.

Oil jumps more than 2% after U.S. inventory draw - Oil prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday, boosted by draws in U.S. inventories of crude, gasoline and distillates that lifted investors' hopes for some return in fuel demand. Brent crude futures gained $1.12, or 2.24%, to settle at $51.20 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 2.34%, or $1.10, higher at $48.12 per barrel. U.S. crude inventories fell by 562,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 18 to 499.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Gasoline stocks fell by a surprise 1.1 million barrels in the week to 237.8 million barrels, the EIA said, while distillate stockpiles fell by 2.3 million barrels in the week to 148.9 million barrels, more than expected. "Overall, what this report reflects is that we're starting to see continued improvement in demand," "It reflects that we're seeing a market that's getting more in balance." A falling U.S. dollar also supported prices. A weak greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities such as crude oil cheaper to holders of other currencies. Investors also kept an eye on Nigeria, where supply disruptions helped lift prices. Exxon Mobil Corp issued a force majeure on the Qua Iboe crude oil export terminal last week after a fire hit the facility and injured two workers. A source told Reuters production is expected to resume in early January. The stream was expected to load about 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December and 150,000 bpd in January. Still, oil markets remain jittery about the future recovery of oil demand as a new, highly infectious variant of the novel coronavirus has hit Britain, prompting a slew of countries to shut their borders to the country. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, though remained elevated as more businesses faced restrictions and consumers hunkered down amid rising COVID-19 cases.

Oil moves higher on Brexit deal, U.S. inventory draw - Oil prices moved higher on Thursday as news that Britain and the European Union had signed a post-Brexit trade deal, as well as a draw in U.S. inventory sparked optimism. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 11 cents, or 0.23%, to trade at $48.23 per barrel, while Brent crude futures advanced 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $51.30 per barrel. Volumes were light on the last trading day before the Christmas holiday. Both contracts gained more than 2% on Wednesday. By clinching a Brexit trade deal, Britain avoids a chaotic departure from one of the world's biggest trading blocs, a move many investors warned would have sparked further volatility in financial markets. "While the Brexit deal is supportive, the impact of COVID is the dominant driver in the oil market," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, in Houston, Texas. "Like everyone else the oil market is waiting for the wider distribution of vaccines to get the public back on the road and in the air." U.S. stockpiles fell in the most recent week in what some hoped was a signal that demand would recover after a torrid year in which gasoline and jet fuel consumption plummeted as a result of the pandemic. U.S. crude inventories fell by 562,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 18, according to government data, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles also fell. However, new strains of the coronavirus, which appear to spread the disease more quickly, have hit the United Kingdom, Nigeria, and other countries. "Lingering worries over a new variant of the novel coronavirus capped gains," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities. At least four drugmakers expect their COVID-19 vaccines will be effective against the new fast-spreading variant of the virus that is raging in Britain, and are performing tests that should provide confirmation in a few weeks.

Oil prices edge higher, but log first weekly fall in 2 months in Christmas Eve trade  -Crude-oil futures settled slightly higher Thursday amid light-trading volumes in the last trading session before Christmas, with investors watching whether a U.S. fiscal package will be signed into law by President Trump. Commodity investors have fretted that a resurgence in the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. and Europe in particular will hurt demand for energy without sufficient aid from the government to stem the economic harm from restrictions on consumer and business activity. "We do need to get some kind of stimulus or if the government gets shutdown we could see losses" accelerate, Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, told MarketWatch, referencing the coronavirus aid package that is rolled into the funding bill for U.S. government that was passed by Congress on Monday but is being held up by President Trump. President Donald Trump has raised the possibility of a veto of a long-sought-after fiscal spending package, after he vetoed a $740.5 billion defense-policy bill on Wednesday and demanded last-minute changes (link) to coronavirus-relief legislation. The president is asking for the increase of direct payments to individuals to $2,000 from $600. However, Republicans in the House defied the president (link)and blocked a bill put forward by Democrats that would have increased those direct payments as part of the coronavirus financial-aid package.Also on Thursday, Britain and the European Union cemented an agreement (link) that would avoid the U.K. leaving the trade bloc without a pact, helping support higher oil prices. On Wednesday, oil markets took a slightly more bullish turn after the Energy Information Administration reported a fall of 562,000 barrels in U.S. crude inventories for the week ended Dec. 18, contrasting with an earlier report from the less closely followed American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday that showed that U.S. crude supplies rose by 2.7 million barrels for the week. Still, the decline in inventories was less than the average of 4.7 million barrels forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes on Wednesday, reporting two days early because of the Christmas holiday, showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 1 to 264 this week, marking a fifth straight weekly rise in oil-rig counts. The total active U.S. rig count, which includes those drilling for natural gas, was also up by 2 to 348.  West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery closed 11 cents, or 0.2%, higher at $48.23 a barrel, after notching a 2.3% gain on Wednesday. February Brent crude finished up 9 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $51.29 a barrel, after the contract rose 2.2% Wednesday on ICE Futures Europe. For the week, WTI lost 2.1%, while Brent recorded a weekly decline of 1.9%,  . Both contracts marked their first weekly loss since the week ended Oct. 30, Dow Jones Market Data show. Natural gas for January delivery settled at $2.5180 per million British thermal units, down 9 cents, on Thursday, or 3.5%, also booking a weekly drop of 6.7%.

US Navy Sails Nuclear Submarine Through Straits of Hormuz - The US Navy nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine USS Georgia transited the Strait of Hormuz Monday accompanied by two additional American warships, the Navy said Monday in a rare public announcement of a nuclear submarine's movements. "The nuclear-power Ohio-class guided-missile submarine USS Georgia (SSGN 729), along with the guided-missile cruisers USS Port Royal (CG 73) and USS Philippine Sea (CG 58), transited the Strait of Hormuz entering the Arabian Gulf, Dec. 21," the Navy said in a statement using an alternative name for the Persian Gulf. The vessels' entrance into the area comes amid heightened tensions with Iran, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blaming Iranian backed militias for a rocket attack on the US Embassy compound in Baghdad, on Sunday. Some US officials have expressed concern that Iran may use the anniversary of the killing of General Qasem Solemani to carry out a strike on the US. The US Navy rarely discusses the movement of its submarines, but Monday's announcement also included details on the vessel's capabilities, including its "ability to carry up to 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles."

 Israel's government collapses, not with a bang but a whimper, triggering fourth election in 2 years -  The Israeli government collapsed on Tuesday at midnight (17.00 EST) local time after the country's parliament failed to meet a deadline for passage of the 2020 and 2021 budgets. Israel will now head to its fourth elections in two years, probably on March 23 next year. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his erstwhile coalition partner, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, sought to blame one another for the collapse of their seven-month-old government. "Blue and White withdrew from the agreements [to modify the original coalition agreement] and dragged us to unnecessary elections during the corona crisis," said Netanyahu, who on Saturday evening became the first Israeli to receive the Covid-19 vaccine. "We do not want an election and we voted against it ... but we are not afraid of elections -- because we will win!" Gantz, referencing the corruption charges facing Netanyahu, said: "I regret that the Prime Minister is preoccupied with his trial and not the public interest, and is prepared to drag the entire country into a period of uncertainty, instead of ensuring economic stability and a rehabilitation of the economy." After three inconclusive elections, and with the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic underway, Gantz agreed to join Netanyahu in April, in what was described as an "emergency" coalition government - even though he'd campaigned on a platform that ruled out sitting with the Prime Minister while he faced corruption charges. Under the deal, the prime ministership would have been rotated between the two party leaders: Netanyahu would serve first, and then give way to Gantz after 18 months. The only loophole in the complicated deal was if lawmakers failed to agree to a budget before Tuesday's midnight deadline -- a failure that has now come to pass. The fate of the government had appeared sealed after the Knesset failed in the early hours of Tuesday to pass a bill at first reading that would have extended the deadline for reaching a budget agreement. Opposition leader Yair Lapid -- who campaigned with Gantz at the last election, but ​withdrew his party's support when ​Gantz joined forces with Netanyahu -- addressed the Israeli leader in the Knesset on Monday evening: "Mr. Prime Minister, who are you kidding? You don't care about the mutation [of coronavirus]. You only care about the rotation [of the prime ministership]." Opinion polls suggest Netanyahu's Likud party is again on track to win the most Knesset seats in the next election. With Blue and White hemorrhaging support, his biggest rivals would appear to come from other right-wing parties, which have been gaining ground on Israel's longest serving leader.

Hunger in the Philippines reaches all-time highs - Hunger has risen to historic highs in the Philippines, according to the latest findings from the country’s pollster Social Weather Stations. The finding is an indictment of the capitalist system and the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic in which millions have lost their livelihood and employment without compensation. Residents try to salvage belongings after their homes were toppled from Typhoon Goni in San Andres, Catanduanes province, eastern Philippines on Monday Nov. 2, 2020 [Credit: Philippine Red Cross via AP] Social Weather Survey released its findings last Wednesday based on its first survey conducted through face-to-face interviews since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Between November 21–25, the pollster sampled 1,500 adults and probed the issue of involuntary hunger—that is, hunger due to the lack of food to eat. The results were extrapolated to the general population with the assistance of the government’s Philippine Statistics Authority population projections for 2020. The questions asked were, “In the last three months, did it happen even once that your family experienced hunger and not have anything to eat?” If the answer was yes, respondents were asked: “Did it happen only once, a few times, often or always?” The answers “often” and “always” were taken as constituting severe hunger, the two other answers as moderate hunger. The findings show that 16.0 percent of the population, or an estimated 4.0 million families, experienced involuntary hunger at least once in the past three months. This is actually a drop from the record high in September which reached 30.7 percent (almost a third of all families) owing to prolonged periods of unemployment and loss of income as a result of government lockdowns. However, it is still double the pre-pandemic levels of 8.8 percent which were recorded in December 2019. Combining the quarterly hunger surveys in May (16.7 percent) and July (20.9 percent) with those in September and December, the average hunger rate for Filipino families in 2020 assumes an historic high of 21.1 percent. This surpasses the previous records of 19.9 percent in 2011 and 2012. Hunger was most prevalent in Metro Manila with 23.3 percent (almost 1 in 4 families), followed by 16.0 percent in Mindanao, 14.4 percent in Balance Luzon, and 14.3 percent in the Visayas. The record high hunger rates of September are being used by the government of Rodrigo Duterte to economically bludgeon the population back to work, accept the risk of getting infected and to produce profits. Virus restrictions have been eased in recent months in order to revive the economy which is reportedly set to contract by 9.5 percent this year. “I've never seen hunger at this level before,” said Jomar Fleras, executive director of Rise Against Hunger (RAH) in the Philippines in an interview with Agence France-Presse (AFP). “If you go out there everybody will tell you that they’re more afraid of dying from hunger than dying from COVID. They don’t care about COVID anymore.”

Video of police killing sparks mass outrage in the Philippines -- Sonya Gregorio, 52-years old, and her son, Frank Anthony, 25, were gathered with friends in the open grassy space between the unfinished hollow block houses clustered together on the edge of the ricefields. Frank Anthony and the neighbors were setting off boga, a makeshift firework constructed from pvc pipe. Jonel Nuezca, an off-duty police Senior Master Sergeant from the Metro Manila municipality of Paranaque, visiting Paniqui for the holidays, arrived with his service revolver on his belt and his 13-year-old daughter in tow and began accosting the family. Initially the argument erupted over the noise of the boga, but it quickly turned into a dispute over property and right-of-way. Heated squabbles over easements are common in the rural Philippines where there is often only one thoroughfare and the lots and houses crowd together for access.What follows is documented from the brutal camera footage of the murder.Nuezca threatened and physically menaced Frank Anthony, drawing his gun, declaring that he would arrest him. He had no warrant, no charges, nor was he on-duty. In the climate of ubiquitous police violence created by the Duterte administration, to be taken away by a police officer could easily be a death sentence. If a police officer shoots anyone who is said to have been resisting, “nanlaban,” the charges are immediately dropped. Sonya Gregorio clung to her son, wrapping her arms around his chest, desperately trying to protect him from the police officer dragging him away by the arms. The gathered neighbors and children were screaming in fear and anger, powerless. What could they do? Call the police?Nuezca’s daughter threatened the mother, telling her, “My father is police man.” “I don’t care,” Sonya Gregorio responded. Nuezca shot Gregorio at point blank range in the head, then her son, and then fired into their bodies on the ground. “Mission accomplished,” he said, putting his arm around his daughter as they walked away. Nuezca rode his motorcycle to a neighboring police precinct of Rosales, Pangasinan, where he turned himself in. There is no doubt that he expected impunity, the same mass impunity from criminal charges that had been extended to police throughout the country for the past four years. He had not calculated on the video of his crime going viral and setting off a firestorm of protest. As the video of the killing went viral, angry posts on social media with #StopTheKillingsPH and similar hashtags were circulating in the hundreds of thousands. A significant number of posts demanded for the police to be abolished entirely.Recognizing the mass anger, the administration distanced itself from Nuezca, referring to his actions as a crime and an “isolated incident.” On Monday evening, looking to contain the growing outrage, Duterte delivered an unscheduled address to the nation, in which he claimed that Nuezca was “crazy.”The murder of Sonya and Frank Anthony Gregorio was not an “isolated incident.” His case is representative of the climate of impunity Duterte has created.Duterte has delivered numerous speeches in which he has publicly told the police that if suspects resist, “shoot them.” “I will protect you,” he has repeatedly declared. Since he took office, over 8,000 people have been killed by the police and more than 20,000 have been killed by vigilantes. He is overseeing a war against the poor and the working population of genocidal proportions.

Australian arts and entertainment workers devastated by coronavirus pandemic Throughout the world, the arts and entertainment sectors have been decimated by the coronavirus pandemic. The dangerous and highly infectious virus has accelerated a decades-long assault on funding for creative and cultural endeavours at the hands of cost-cutting governments and brought into focus the perilous social conditions facing the overwhelming majority of artists and entertainers. Under conditions where there was no vaccine, lockdowns and restrictions on public gatherings were necessary basic responses to the dangerous and highly-contagious disease. Trillions of dollars internationally have been handed over to big business but little or no compensation made available to the tens of thousands of individuals whose livelihoods depend on live audiences. Artists have been forced to live off their often meagre savings or poverty-level welfare payments. While Australia has so far avoided the massive COVID-19 death tolls and infection rates seen overseas, the country’s live performance industry has not escaped the devastating economic consequences of the pandemic. Along with tourism and hospitality workers, entertainment workers were among the first to lose work as the result of lockdowns, struggle to receive government assistance, and are still many months, if not years, away from a return to pre-COVID-19 levels of employment. In mid-March, the closure of bars, restaurants and other venues meant the overnight cancellation of virtually all work for the hundreds of thousands employed in the arts and entertainment sector. By the end of April, more than $340 million in lost work had been reported to the ilostmygig website. A report last month by consulting firm EY found that 79,000 jobs—two thirds of the workforce—had been lost in the live entertainment industry since October 2019, and the economic output had decreased by $23.6 billion (65 percent). The report also noted that, “for commercial live entertainment operators both large and small, revenue in September/October remains at no more than 10 percent of 2019 levels.” Between February and August, hours worked in the “Arts and Recreation Services” fell by more than 25 percent, the largest decline in any Australian sector, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Opera Australia recently announced the forced redundancy of almost one third of its 56 full-time orchestral players, before advertising most of the “redundant” positions as temporary roles. This brazen move towards increased casualisation is typical of restructuring being carried out in numerous industries, ostensibly because of COVID-19. These job cuts at Australia’s biggest arts employer are the product of decades of funding cuts to the country’s cultural institutions and the insistence that they must be run as profitable businesses rather than for the good of society. Only one fifth of Opera Australia’s revenue comes from government funding; the majority comes from ticket sales, meaning the pandemic has had a major impact. Yet the company was prevented from receiving emergency funding unless it first sold off its headquarters and warehouse in Sydney.

Canadian Cargill plant closed after more than 80 employees test positive for coronavirus - Last week, on Thursday, December 17, a Cargill meat-processing plant in Guelph, Ontario, was forced to close after a major outbreak of coronavirus. Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph (WDG) Public Health announced that day that 87 cases had been confirmed, concentrated to the Guelph facility, while an additional 42 were considered to have been exposed and instructed to self-quarantine. According to the WDG Public Health website, there have been 2,175 confirmed cases and 44 fatalities in the WDG area, a population of approximately 272,000. The area was moved into the “red zone” by the government of Ontario on December 11, triggering stricter social distancing protocols, including limiting large gatherings. In an email to Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) Kitchener-Waterloo, a Cargill spokesperson wrote, “We are taking this step out of an abundance of caution as our local workforce deals with the community-wide impacts of COVID-19. As we work in partnership with the union, our employees will be paid the 36 hours per week as outlined in our collective agreement.” In a statement issued by the company, Cargill “stressed the importance” that “any employees who are sick or have been exposed to anyone with COVID-19 in the last 14 days to stay home.” However, despite the outbreak in the plant and the spread of the virus in the community, Cargill has announced that it plans to reopen on December 29, less than two weeks after the shutdown began and well before the WDG area leaves “red zone” status. Moreover, before shutting production Cargill required workers finish their shifts to process what unprocessed meats remained in the facility.

Massive new coronavirus outbreaks at Amazon in Germany - In the last few days, several hundred workers of the shipping giant Amazon in Germany have become infected with coronavirus. Amazon distribution center workers continue to toil under deadly conditions while Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, the world’s wealthiest man, further enriches himself during the pandemic.  At least 100 of the 900-person workforce at the sorting and distribution center in Garbsen near Hannover had been infected by the time mass testing began at the plant. Despite this, the highly-automated Garbsen facility, one of the newest and most modern of its kind, has not yet been closed. The Amazon warehouses in Bayreuth, Koblenz and Graben near Augsburg are also reporting new outbreaks, but work continues at full speed in all sorting and distribution centers.  The online retail giant Amazon is taking advantage of the so-called “shutdown” imposed by the German federal government, which has shut down in-person retail (with the exception of grocery stores). However, schools and daycare centers remain open as well as public transportation and shipping firms. In spite of the “shutdown,” COVID-19 cases continue to rise, and hospitals are overcrowded. The Robert Koch Institute reported on Friday 33,777 new infections and 813 COVID-19 deaths in Germany, once again an alarming new record. Yet, business is booming in the entire shipping industry. Much to the delight of Jeff Bezos, who is the world’s richest man and CEO of Amazon. He has increased his wealth by over $70 billion during the pandemic. Amazon now hopes to massively increase its Christmas sales.  Amazon workers’ wages and health precautions will not be increased. For them, the busy Christmas period, especially under conditions of the pandemic, means incessant stress, longer hours and putting their lives in danger. In order to send out all seasonal extra orders, the company has added around 10,000 temporary workers in its German distribution centers. This has caused “chaos and a lack of social distancing,” as one operations manager recently put it. The promised Christmas bonus of 2 Euros per hour between December 9 and 22 only applies for the hours that workers are actually present. The consequence of this is that those who are sick come to work, which increases the risk of infecting others.

 Covid-19: Christmas rules tightened for England, Scotland and Wales – BBC --The planned relaxation of Covid rules for Christmas has been scrapped for large parts of south-east England and cut to just Christmas Day for the rest of England, Scotland and Wales.From midnight, a new tier four will be introduced in areas including London, Kent, Essex and Bedfordshire. Those in tier four cannot mix indoors with anyone not from their household.Elsewhere in England, Scotland and Wales, relaxed indoor mixing rules are cut from five days to Christmas Day. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the changes for England at a Downing Street briefing after scientists said a new coronavirus variant was spreading more rapidly.Tier-four restrictions - similar to England's second national lockdown - will apply in all areas in the South East currently in tier three, covering Kent, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Surrey (excluding Waverley), Gosport, Havant, Portsmouth, Rother and Hastings.It will also apply in London (all 32 boroughs and the City of London) and the East of England (Bedford, Central Bedford, Milton Keynes, Luton, Peterborough, Hertfordshire, Essex (excluding Colchester, Uttlesford and Tendring).In Scotland, Covid restrictions will only be relaxed on Christmas Day, with mainland Scotland being placed under the tightest restrictions from Boxing Day.Outlining the changes, Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she wished she had acted quicker to curb the virus in February, adding: "Standing here saying this actually makes me want to cry."A ban on travel to the rest of the UK will also apply over the festive period.In Wales, First Minister Mark Drakeford announced that the country will be placed under lockdown from midnight.In Northern Ireland, no changes have been made to Christmas restrictions,with three households allowed to meet from 23 to 27 December. The country is set to enter a six-week lockdown from 26 December.

Millions forced to cancel Christmas as mutant coronavirus strain spreads in U.K.— Millions of people in London and the U.K.'s southeast will be forced to cancel their Christmas plans after scientists said Saturday that a new coronavirusvariant was spreading more quickly. Prime Minister Boris Johnson told a news conference that the toughest set of coronavirus restrictions — known as "Tier 4" — will be put in place from Sunday, putting regions under the strictest lockdown rules. As a result, nonessential shops, gyms, cinemas, hairdressers and bowling alleys will be forced to close for two weeks, while people will be restricted to meeting one other person from another household in an outdoor public space. A "bubble" policy — allowing up to three households to meet over the holiday period in parts of the country that are not under Tier 4 restrictions — will be severely curtailed and will only apply on Christmas Day, Johnson said.  He added that he "bitterly regretted" the changes, but insisted they were "necessary.""Alas, when the facts change, you have to change your approach," he said, adding that a briefing he had on Friday "about this mutation of the virus, particularly about the speed of transmission, was not possible to ignore."  "The message is that this is the year to lift a glass to those who aren't there, in the knowledge that it's precisely because they're not there to celebrate Christmas with you this year that we all have a better chance that they'll be there next year," he said.  Johnson spoke out after he was advised by scientists that the new coronavirus variant was spreading more rapidly. The chief medical officer for England, Professor Chris Whitty, said in a statement Saturday that the U.K. had informed the World Health Organization about the mutant strain. "As announced on Monday, the U.K. has identified a new variant of Covid-19 through Public Health England's genomic surveillance," he said, adding that preliminary modeling data and rising cases in the country's southeast showed "the new strain can spread more quickly." He added that scientists were "continuing to analyze the available data to improve our understanding."However, he insisted that there was "no current evidence to suggest the new strain causes a higher mortality rate or that it affects vaccines and treatments although urgent work is under way to confirm this." There has been mounting anxiety across as Britain — like other countries across Europe — is working to curb a second wave of Covid-19 cases and deaths, and the government is having to defend a plan to relax contact restrictions for five days over the Christmas period in order to lift the national mood. "The government was too slow to introduce restrictions in the spring and again in the autumn. It should now reverse its rash decision to allow household mixing," the British Medical Journal and Health Service Journal said in a unique joint editorial this week.

London news: Britons FURIOUS as Londoners FLEE capital after Tier 4 rules announced --Shocking images on social media showed crowds packing main London stations including Kings Cross and Euston as they attempting to leave the capital before the deadline hit.But those escaping the capital have angered Brits up and down the country with many calling for fines to be issued.One person said: “Utterly selfish behaviour.“Only they matter, not the country getting back on its feet, not other people’s lives, not broken families with dead relatives. “Shameful.”A second reader said: “Look at the rats leaving the sinking ship.“Why don’t they grow up?“Christmas is supposed to be for children.” “Spread the infection far and wide and then blame Boris.”A sixth reader called them all “totally selfish” and said it is not the Government’s fault but the “selfish people” spreading the virus.They said: “Totally selfish rushing out of London to help spread the virus nationwide.“Let’s watch the next explosion of death. Police given powers to impose fines on rule breakers “This is not the Government’s fault this is selfish people spreading the disease now watch Keir Starmer try to score political points.“He has his hindsight crystal ball to hand.”Someone else said: “Nothing like spreading Christmas cheer around the country while killing your relatives, each and every one should be prosecuted.”Another reader pointed out how many of these people travelling to spend Christmas with their family could have the new strain of the virus.They said: “Unbelievable, many of these people could have the new strain and not be aware of it, so will spread it outside London.“Thanks a bunch.”Health Secretary Matt Hancock suggested the tougher measures - which require about a third of the population of England to stay at home except for essential reasons such as work - might remain in place until vaccinations become more widely available.He said today: "We've got a long way to go to sort this."Essentially we've got to get that vaccine rolled out to keep people safe. Given how much faster this new variant spreads, it's going to be very difficult to keep it under control until we have the vaccine rolled out."

Tier 4 lockdown: Matt Hancock slams Brits trying to leave London - The Health Secretary has branded Londoners who left the city in huge crowds on Saturday night ‘totally irresponsible’. It comes after the Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced at 4pm that the capital would be placed into a new ‘tier four’ within hours, meaning people risked being arrested for leaving the capital after midnight. That sparked huge numbers of people unable to social distance crowding into rail stations as the scramble to leave was compared to ‘the last train out of Saigon’. Speaking on Sky’s Sophy Ridge On Sunday, Mr Hancock hit out at people trying to flee the capital last night. Sighing dramatically and shaking his head, he said: ‘This was clearly totally irresponsible behaviour. The Chief Medical Officer (Professor Chris Whitty) was absolutely clear that people should unpack their bags if they have them packed.’  . The Government has been slammed for the Christmas U-turn – which it blamed on a more contagious variant of Covid-19 – and was this morning accused of not following the science. Mr Hancock continued: ‘I think it is relatively small numbers and the large, vast majority of people throughout this whole pandemic have followed the rules, been responsible and played their part and I want to thank everybody for doing that. Londoners fleeing city 'totally irresponsible' says Health Secretary  ‘It is more important than ever that people are responsible, not only stick to the rules, but even within the rules restrict social contact as much as is possible because this is deadly serious.’ Mr Hancock struggled to answer why Brits were told ahead of time that they could celebrate Christmas and make plans for celebration over five days across three households, only for that to be taken away. Earlier in the pandemic, Mr Johnson had suggested the UK could be ‘back to normal’ by Christmas. But the Government has come under fire for changing the rules at the last minute on Saturday, with many suggesting online that the scenes in London should have been planned for. And the British Medical Association (BMA) joined the pile on this morning implying the Government had not ‘managed’ the change well or followed the science. When asked by Sky’s Sophy Ridge how concerned he was about the new strain of coronavirus, Dr Nagpaul said: ‘We were concerned at the time the Prime Minister announced the five-day relaxation for Christmas because the science told us then that the virus was spreading week-on-week

Countries impose UK travel restrictions as more infectious Covid strain threatens to spread worldwide -- Britain recorded 33,364 new cases of COVID-19, 18,871 hospitalisations and 215 deaths—spurred on by the new more infectious strain first acknowledged by Boris Johnson’s government last week. More than 40 countries have imposed flight and other travel restrictions on the UK to contain the spread of the new strain which is reported to be 70 percent more infectious than the previously dominant strains. They include at least 18 European countries, as well as Russia, India, Canada, Hong Kong, Israel, Iran, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador and Peru. The US is expected to follow. But Professor Calum Semple, of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has warned that the mutated strain is likely to become the dominant global strain nevertheless. Semple, professor of outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool, when asked by Sky News whether the mutant strain will become globally dominant, answered in the affirmative as it was affecting more people: “Because the virus has the evolutionary advantage in transmitting more quickly, it will out-compete all the other strains, and so it will naturally do that.” He added, “As immunity comes into the community more widely, then you’ll start to see more pressure on the virus and you’re more likely to see other escapes of other variations,” before warning, “We do not yet have herd immunity despite those people that think herd immunity is going to be the salvation. We won’t have it until a very large number of people have been vaccinated.” There is no evidence that the new strain is more deadly than its predecessors, or that it is resistant to the various vaccines now being rolled out. But its higher rate of infectivity means more cases, hospitalisations, and deaths and demands a faster and more widespread vaccination drive and far more effective measures of containment. These are still not being imposed in the UK or in any of the countries now belatedly imposing travel restrictions.   Even if the spread of the mutation is limited, it is already active on the continent and is only one of thousands of mutations worldwide—some of which have similar characteristics. British scientists are reportedly monitoring 4,000 strains of coronavirus. These include the D614G variant that became the dominant strain in Europe and then spread globally. A new strain was identified in October as responsible for 90 percent of new infections in Spain and is likely to have spread throughout Europe due to tourism.\

Brexit Event Horizon and Covid Mutation Deliver Lumps of Coal to UK for Christmas --Yves Smith -One has to wonder if all the bad karma that the UK incurred in its imperial days has finally come home to roost with a vengeance. The UK has found that the Brexit cliff edge arrived early thanks to a Covid cordon imposed by its trade partners, and as we’ll discuss soon, the real Brexit cliff is bearing down on the UK.But for the Brexit part, one doesn’t have to look that far back in history to find causes. Even though Thatcher did pump for the UK joining the EEC, her initial enthusiasm turned to distaste. That led among other things to the UK having a half-in, half out attitude, regularly looking for ways to play the spoiler to its advantage. That spectacularly backfired when the UK pushed hard for Eastern European countries to join the block, anticipated that they would become allies in opposing the Germany-France axis. The UK estimated that the entry of Poland would result in first year emigration of Poles to the UK of 50,000. It turned out to be 500,000, putting pressure not just on wages but on low-end housing in a country already at the very low end for residential square footage per capita among advanced economies.And that’s before getting to the great damage Thatcherism did to the UK, and how UK membership in the EU helped accelerate neoliberalism taking hold on the Continent. As readers know too well, the Tories would regularly scapegoat the EU for austerity the UK imposed all on its own.But to the Covid lockdown imposed on the UK by its trade partners. Unless you took an Internet break over the weekend, you have probably heard that there are two new Covid mutations that have health authorities worried, one in the UK and one in South Africa. The one in South Africa may wind up being even more dangerous since it appears to increase the severity of infections and more heavily afflict the young than early strains.But the UK mutation sounds bad enough. It appears be markedly more contagious, even though there seems to be no evidence (so far) that resulting infections are more serious than under previously-circulating strains of Covid. This mutation is taking hold just after the UK managed to engineer an internal mass migration by announcing a Tier 4 lockdown of the London in advance, inducing anyone who had anywhere else to go to decamp. As usual, the Daily Mail last Friday tells the story: Escape from the capital! Huge queues as desperate families flee London ahead of Tier 4 misery – as PM’s critics mockingly congratulate him for causing the city’s ‘first evacuation since 1939.‘

New coronavirus variant: Flights from UK halted over Covid-19 concerns - Canada has become the latest country to halt flights from the UK following the discovery of a new variant of Covid-19, which is said by officials to spread faster than others. The new coronavirus variant, which prompted the UK government to impose a Tier 4 lockdown in London and southeastern England, and tighten restrictions for all of England over the festive period, is "out of control," Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on Sunday — the same day that the UK broke its daily coronavirus case record, recording 35,928 new cases. The ensuing wave of travel bans has cut off UK travelers from much of Europe and other parts of the world. It also spurred a decision to hold an emergency governmental meeting on Monday, chaired by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a No. 10 spokesperson told CNN. The meeting will focus on the international movement restrictions, and "in particular the steady flow of freight into and out of the UK," they said. "Further meetings are happening this evening and tomorrow morning to ensure robust plans are in place."Canada announced it will ban most passenger travel from the UK beginning midnight Sunday for at least 72 hours. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed the news in a tweet Sunday night saying it was being done to 'protect' Canadians across the country. In South America, Argentina, Chile and Colombia have all suspended direct flights to and from the UK. Ecuador is also considering strengthening measures to control the spread of the virus. According to a joint statement published Sunday by the Argentinian Health and Interior Ministries, Argentina will only allow one more flight from Britain to land at the international airport in Buenos Aires on Monday morning. Later flights have all been canceled. The Chilean government announced on Twitter that all flights to and from the UK will be suspended, beginning on Tuesday, and that travelers who have been to the UK in the last 14 days would have to self-quarantine. Colombian president Ivan Duque similarly announced that all flights between Colombia and the UK will be suspended, starting on Monday. Travelers who have been to the UK in the last 14 days will also have to self-quarantine, upon entering Colombia. On Sunday, France announced it would suspend travel to and from the United Kingdom for 48 hours starting at midnight local time, due to the "new health risk,"  The Republic of Ireland is banning flights from Britain on Monday and Tuesday. "In the interests of Public Health, people in Britain, regardless of nationality, should not travel to Ireland, by air or by sea," the Irish government announced in a statement. Italy will also suspend flights to and from the UK, as well as banning entry to anyone who has been in Britain in the past two weeks, Health Minister Roberto Speranza said on Facebook Sunday. Portugal will allow only Portuguese nationals to arrive on flights from the UK, and they must have a negative Covid-19 test, according to the country's Interior Minister. Meanwhile, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said that Belgium will block travelers from the UK for 24 hours on Monday as a "precautionary measure," though the ban could be extended if necessary.  The Netherlands and Latvia announced longer bans on flights coming from the United Kingdom, lasting until the new year. The Dutch government, which also banned ferry passengers arriving from the UK, said the same virus variant had been detected in the Netherlands. Estoniaalso announced a suspension of air traffic with the UK until the end of the year. And the Czech Republic imposed a mandatory 10-day quarantine on anyone arriving from the UK starting Sunday. Further away, Saudi Arabia is suspending all international flights for travelers — as well as entry through land and sea ports — for one week. Turkeybanned flights from the UK, South Africa, the Netherlands and Denmark, according to the country's state-owned Anadolu Agency. And Israel banned incoming flights from Britain, Denmark and South Africa, and will bar foreign nationals from those countries from entering the country.

UK’s Covid and Brexit Siege -Yves Smith -The latest news from the UK on Covid and Brexit isn’t at encouraging. While some experts deemed the initial take of a Government panel that the new variant Covid looked to be markedly more contagious than established versions to be too speculative to warrant a Tier 4 lockdown of the southeast, others are calling for a national Tier 4 lockdown.Unfortunately, the short version of “where we are now” is I suspect more definitive answers won’t be coming quickly, as in the next day or so. From the Financial Times:“There is no evidence at the moment that the new variant causes disease which is any different from that caused by previous variants,” said Peter Openshaw, professor of experimental medicine at Imperial College London.There is provisional clinical evidence that B.1.1.7 is increasing the “viral load” — the amount of virus present in patients’ upper respiratory tract — which is also a feature of another variant called 501. V2 that has evolved independently in South Africa. This may make the new variants transmit more readily between people but it is not clear how the greater viral load would affect symptoms in those who are infected.However, later reports speculate that that the South African variant is the same as the new UK one, which seems a bit at odds with Prof. Openshaw’s view. The big reason for concern in South Africa was their new strain was hitting young people with no comorbidities harder than the older variants. Presumably the “how many new strains” matter will be settled relatively quickly. The new variant is now out and about all over Great Britain. From the Daily Mail: The Mail understands Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty has warned the Prime Minister the number of patients in hospital with coronavirus is on course to match the April peak by New Year’s Eve – and will continue increasing in January.Downing Street yesterday tried to play down suggestions that a third national lockdown was imminent, but [Chief Scientific Adviser] Sir Patrick [Vallance] said the new strain, which is thought to spread up to 70 per cent more easily, was already present ‘around the country’.He added: ‘It’s localised in some places but we know there are cases everywhere, so it’s not as though we can stop this getting into other places.’ Cases of the mutated strain of Covid have already been seen in Wales and Scotland and there are fears it could be spreading within Northern Ireland.In the meantime, the UK is cordoned off. 40 countries have halted flights. United and Delta are allowing UK nationals to fly to the US, but only if they’ve had a negative Covid test.Worse is the situation with goods. As readers may have seen, France has imposed a 48 hour hold on all entering shipments. Macron wants lorry-drivers to have a negative Covid test before they enter France from the UK. Needless to say, figuring out how to get drivers tested (and what tests are acceptable?) and how to generate documentation that can be verified at the border is a nightmare on top of the existing pile-up at Kent, which near term is getting worse:

France agrees to reopen UK border to lorry drivers with negative Covid test - A mass Covid-19 testing programme for lorry drivers is to get under way to relieve congestion at British ports following an agreement to reopen the border between France and the UK. The Department for Transport made the announcement late on Tuesday, hours after Paris said passengers from Britain could enter France following a 48-hour blockade, aimed at stopping the spread of a new coronavirus variant, that left thousands of HGVs stranded outside UK ports before Christmas. Rail, air and sea services would resume from Wednesday morning, the DfT said, with all people travelling from the UK into France required to show proof of a negative test taken within the previous 72 hours. The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, said lateral flow tests, which take about 30 minutes, could be used to test those eligible to cross the French border, but urged hauliers not to travel to Kent until the testing programme was operational. The French prime minister’s office announced earlier on Tuesday that French and EU citizens in the UK, as well as British and third-country nationals with permanent residence in France or another EU member state, would be able to enter the country, or travel through it, providing they have a recent negative Covid test. UK citizens or people from third countries with legitimate professional or other reasons for travelling from Britain – including hauliers and other transport staff, diplomats and health workers – would also be allowed into France with a negative test, Paris said. About 4,000 lorries, and thousands more small vans, were waiting to cross the Channel on Tuesday, with food transport firms warning that potential disruption levels ranged between “a shambles and a catastrophe” just as January and the end of Brexit transition looms. The backlog is likely to take several days to clear. Elizabeth de Jong, policy director of the transport business group Logistics UK, welcomed the news that the border would soon be open but said it was now “vital that Covid-19 testing procedures be stood up fast” so backed-up traffic could clear. The ban on freight and passengers was imposed by Paris on Sunday evening in an attempt to contain a newly discovered Covid-19 variant thought to have a growth rate up to 70% higher than previous types.

UK imposes more lockdowns as mutated COVID variant causes record cases (Reuters) - The British government on Wednesday said huge swathes of England would be placed under its strictest COVID-19 restrictions as a highly infectious virus variant sweeps the country, pushing the number of cases to a record level. Britain reported almost 40,000 new infections as the mutated variant of the coronavirus, which could be up to 70% more transmissible than the original, causes the number of cases and hospital admissions to soar. The number of recorded deaths - 744 - was also the highest figure since April. “Against this backdrop of rising infections, rising hospitalizations and rising numbers of people dying from coronavirus, it is absolutely vital that we act,” health minister Matt Hancock told a media briefing. “We simply cannot have the kind of Christmas that we all yearn for.” On Saturday, tight social mixing restrictions measures were brought in for London, southeast England and Wales while plans to ease curbs over Christmas across the nation were either dramatically scaled back or scrapped altogether. Hancock said from Dec. 26, many more parts of southern England would be also be added to the highest level of social mixing restrictions, joining the 16 million already in Tier 4, while other areas across the country currently in lower tiers would also face tighter curbs. The governments in Scotland and Northern Ireland have already announced that nearly everyone living in those countries would be subjected to the highest level of restrictions after Christmas. Hancock said there was on average 1909 COVID hospital admissions a day, with 18,943 people currently in hospital with the coronavirus, levels not seen since the peak of the first outbreak in April.

UK and EU agree Brexit trade deal - A historic deal on the UK’s future trading and security relationship with theEuropean Union has been struck on Christmas Eve, a week before the end of the Brexit transition period, triggering a victory cry from Downing Street and sombre reflection in Brussels. As the country leaves the single market and customs union on 31 December, new arrangements allowing for tariff-free trade in goods and close police and judicial cooperation will come into force. The announcement followed a final call between Boris Johnson in Downing Street and the European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, in her Berlaymont headquarters in Brussels – at least the fifth such call over the last 24 hours. The trade agreement – running to 2,000 pages – is unprecedented in scope, containing provisions on subjects ranging from civil nuclear cooperation and energy interconnections to fishing and aviation. A No 10 spokesperson said: “The deal is done. Everything that the British public was promised during the 2016 referendum and in the general election last year is delivered by this deal. “We have taken back control of our money, borders, laws, trade and our fishing waters. The deal is fantastic news for families and businesses in every part of the UK. We have signed the first free trade agreement based on zero tariffs and zero quotas that has ever been achieved.” “It was a long and winding road, but we have got a good deal to show for it. It is fair. It is a balanced deal. And it is the right and responsible thing to do for both sides,” she said. “At the end of a successful negotiation I normally feel joy. But today I only feel quiet satisfaction and, frankly speaking, relief. “I know this is a difficult day for some and to our friends in the United Kingdom, I want to say parting is such sweet sorrow but, to use the line from TS Eliot, what we call the beginning is often the end. And to make an end is often a beginning. So, to all Europeans, I think it is time to leave Brexit behind.” The deal guarantees “zero tariff and zero quota” trade on goods that were worth £668bn in 2019. But it will also mean significant costs to businesses as exporters face a host of border checks from 1 January and freedom of movement in the EU will end for most UK nationals. 

Quick Notes on the Brexit Deal -  Yves Smith - Because we don’t really know much about what is inside the package yet, I hope you don’t mind just a few comments now.This is still a very thin deal that only reduces Brexit dislocations. The UK gets a hard Brexit rather than a crash-out. On trade, the big gain is not having tariffs or quotas. However, that does not eliminate the need for new documentation at the border, and new licenses/permits for haulers. Kent will remain a lorry park for the next few months, and the situation will get better only when the various parties to shipments have learned how to process the paperwork correctly and quickly, and the UK has gotten its systems in order and has enough trained border personnel.Other important issues were things like access to security databases and data sharing, which weren’t as sexy (and weren’t the big bones of contention) but would have fallen by the wayside in a no deal.A deal by January 1 was not inevitable. Some observers are opining that the EU and UK were bound to come to terms. Yes, because they are still very much bound up with each other due to history and proximity, which resulted in a pretty high level of economic integration under the EU. But not necessarily by January 1. People and countries can be irrational and shortsighted, or think they are being rational when operating on bad data or bad assumptions. As recently as last weekend, it really did look like the negotiations were fatally stalled. I am highly confident that the EU side recognized that a crash-out would result in the UK coming back to the table in relatively short order, say weeks, as the damage done by tariffs on top of all the other disruptions became too painful. I’m not clear if the UK ever accepted this idea.A thought experiment: what if Jean-Claude Juncker were still President of the EU Commission? Juncker had the highly entertaining habit of poking the UK in the eye after every in-person top-level meeting by allowing his deputies to leak tidbits which demonstrated how ignorant and presumptuous the UK side was. He’d also snark to journalists at his well-lubricated lunches. If Juncker kept poisoning the well, even in a small way, it would have put off not just the fabulously erratic UK side, but would have given ammo to those on the EU side that had lost patience with Johnson’s antics and need to scapegoat. That would have made it harder to keep everyone at the table.The EU was already tired of how much time Brexit had taken. They could almost certainly gotten a better deal in the if they’d stood back, not kept giving the UK more of a lifeline, and let them crash out. But negotiations in 2021 from meaningfully different starting points would have been a huge time sink, in the middle of a pandemic and resulting economic crisis. It seems likely that the EU also sensed weakness on the UK side. They had to have noticed Brexit garnering less and less public support. They had to have noticed how the Government was being pilloried for its colossal Covid mismanagement. Even the US press is on the case. From the New York Times last week: The contracts that have been made public are only a part of the total. Citing the urgency of the pandemic, the government cast aside the usual transparency rules and awarded contracts worth billions of dollars without competitive bidding. To date, just over half of all of the contracts awarded in the first seven months remain concealed from the public, according to the National Audit Office, a watchdog agency… Dozens of companies that won a total of $3.6 billion in contracts had poor credit, and several had declared assets of just $2 or $3 each. Others had histories of fraud, human rights abuses, tax evasion or other serious controversies. A few were set up on the spur of the moment or had no relevant experience — and still won contracts.