week ending Dec 5

Fed, Treasury agree to extend four lending facilities to March 31— The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have agreed to extend the life of four emergency lending facilities, created in response to the coronavirus pandemic, to March 31. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell Monday approving the extension of the Fed’s Commercial Paper Funding Facility, Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility. The first two use funding from Treasury’s exchange stabilization fund, while the other two do not. “I am pleased that the Federal Reserve Board unanimously voted to approve these extensions, and I am proud of the work our teams have done to successfully execute these programs,” Mnuchin said in a press release. The 90-day extension “will facilitate planning by potential facility participants and provide certainty that the facilities will continue to be available through the first quarter of 2021 to help the economy recover from the COVID-19 pandemic,” the Fed added in its own release. The agreement to lengthen the life of those facilities follows an exchange Mnuchin and Powell had earlier this month, in which Mnuchin requested that the Fed vote to extend the four programs for 90 days past Dec. 31. Mnuchin also asked that the central bank return money appropriated by Congress for five separate emergency lending programs, which will shut down at the end of this year. The Fed had pushed back against Treasury's request to return the funds, saying in a statement that the central bank “would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy.” But Powell later agreed to return the unused money, which was used to fund the Main Street Lending Program, the Municipal Liquidity Facility, the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility, the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility and the Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, which is administering the Main Street program, issued guidance to lenders last week that they should submit loans for approval by Dec. 14, adding that it would be unlikely that any loans submitted after that point would be processed in time to be purchased by the Main Street special-purpose vehicle.

Powell Says Fed Actions Unlocked $2 Trillion to Support Economy - WSJ - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank’s actions to backstop a range of credit markets after the coronavirus convulsed Wall Street this past spring had unlocked almost $2 trillion to support businesses, cities and states. In testimony prepared for delivery at a congressional hearing Tuesday, Mr. Powell said the Fed’s unprecedented steps to stabilize financial markets had largely succeeded in restoring the flow of credit from private lenders. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Nov. 19 told Mr. Powell that he would not grant extensions for five lending programs that have backstopped markets for corporate and municipal debt and to purchase loans made to small businesses and nonprofits when those programs expire on Dec. 31. Mr. Powell didn’t elaborate in his testimony, released on Monday afternoon, about the central bank’s disagreement with Mr. Mnuchin’s decision. The Fed had earlier said it would have preferred the lending programs had stayed open because the pandemic emergency hasn’t receded. Mr. Mnuchin is slated to testify alongside Mr. Powell at Tuesday’s hearing and didn’t address the conflict in his prepared testimony. Mr. Mnuchin’s decision to allow the programs to expire on Dec. 31 intensified a partisan divide over the Fed’s lending activities, which both parties supported as part of the $2 trillion stimulus package known as the Cares Act approved in March.Mr. Mnuchin says the programs are no longer needed because markets have healed. Second, he says he lacks the authority to extend the programs because he believes the Cares Act doesn’t allow for the programs to continue. Third, Mr. Mnuchin says the money would be better spent on other relief measures for which Congress can’t agree on funding.Earlier Monday, the Fed said it had extended through next March four backstop lending programs that helped to stabilize short-term funding markets when the coronavirus pandemic hit this past spring.The extensions were widely expected and don’t apply to any of the lending programs that Mr. Mnuchin declined to renew.Mr. Mnuchin had indicated he would agree to extend four programs, including the Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, which made it more attractive for small banks to fund PPP loans this past spring. The Fed agreed to extend that program on Monday. The Fed also extended the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, which backed a critical market for short-term corporate IOUs that seized up this past March, and the Money Market Fund Liquidity Facility, which had likewise curtailed potential runs on money-market mutual funds.

  Fed's Beige Book: "modest or moderate" Growth in Economic Activity, Some Districts see "No growth" -  Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on information collected on or before November 20, 2020."  Most Federal Reserve Districts have characterized economic expansion as modest or moderate since the prior Beige Book period. However, four Districts described little or no growth, and five narratives noted that activity remained below pre-pandemic levels for at least some sectors. Moreover, Philadelphia and three of the four Midwestern Districts observed thatactivity began to slow in early November as COVID-19 cases surged. Reports tended to indicate higher-than-average growth of manufacturing, distribution and logistics, homebuilding, and existing home sales, although not without disruptions. Banking contacts in numerous Districts reported some deterioration of loan portfolios, particularly for commercial lending into the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors. An increase in delinquencies in 2021 is more widely anticipated. Most Districts reported that firms' outlooks remained positive; however, optimism has waned--many contacts cited concerns over the recent pandemic wave, mandated restrictions (recent and prospective), and the looming expiration dates for unemployment benefits and for moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures.... Nearly all Districts reported that employment rose, but for most, the pace was slow, at best, and the recovery remained incomplete. Firms that were hiring continued to report difficulties in attracting and retaining workers. Many contacts noted that the sharp rise in COVID-19 cases had precipitated more school and plant closings and renewed fears of infection, which have further aggravated labor supply problems, including absenteeism and attrition. Providing for childcare and virtual schooling needs was widely cited as a significant and growing issue for the workforce, especially for women—prompting some firms to extend greater accommodations for flexible work schedules. In several Districts, firms feared that employment levels would fall over the winter before recovering further. Despite hiring difficulties, firms in most Districts reported that wages grew at a slight or modest pace overall. However, many noted greater pressure to raise rates for low-skilled workers, especially in outlying areas. Staffing firms described greater placement success with competitive rates, and one firm instituted a minimum wage rate for its industrial clients.  CR Note: The pandemic is depressing activity again. Also note the concern about some commercial lending.

Beige Book Darkens As 4 Of 12 District Sees "Little Or No Growth", Optimism Wanes On New Lockdowns - While superficially the Fed's latest Beige Book, which was based on data collected before Nov 20, toed the "modest recovery" party line with most of the Fed 12 district characterizing economic expansion as the trite "modest or moderate", it certainly had a dark shadow as four districts described "little or no growth", while five narratives noted that activity remained below pre-pandemic levels for at least some sectors. Worse, Philadelphia and three of the four Midwestern Districts observed that activity began to slow in early November as COVID-19 cases surged. This deterioration, however, was offset by reports which indicated higher-than-average growth of manufacturing, distribution and logistics, homebuilding, and existing home sales, "although not without disruptions." Continuing the trend of pain in CRE, districts also reported "some deterioration of loan portfolios, particularly for commercial lending into the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors." As a result, an increase in delinquencies in 2021 is more widely anticipated. And while most districts reported that firms' outlooks remained positive, optimism has waned - many contacts cited concerns over the recent pandemic wave, mandated restrictions (recent and prospective), and the looming expiration dates for unemployment benefits and for moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures. Focusing on employment, the data was modestly good as nearly all Districts reported that employment rose, but for most, the pace was slow, at best, and the recovery remained incomplete. Those firms that were hiring continued to report difficulties in attracting and retaining workers, while the sharp rise in COVID-19 cases had precipitated more school and plant closings and renewed fears of infection, which have further aggravated labor supply problems, including absenteeism and attrition. Providing for childcare and virtual schooling needs was widely cited as a significant and growing issue for the workforce, especially for women—prompting some firms to extend greater accommodations for flexible work schedules. In several Districts, firms feared that employment levels would fall over the winter before recovering further. Despite hiring difficulties, firms in most Districts reported that wages grew at a slight or modest pace overall. However, many noted greater pressure to raise rates for low-skilled workers, especially in outlying areas. Staffing firms described greater placement success with competitive rates, and one firm instituted a minimum wage rate for its industrial clients. In what may comes as a shock to the Fed, firms in most districts reported modest to moderate increases of input prices, while the selling prices of final goods rose at a slight to modest pace. Contacts noted that COVID-19 cases have caused ongoing disruptions and delays among short-staffed producers and shippers—raising transportation costs, which are then passed through to buyers. Looking at the word count of the beige book, there was a fractional improvement in the "slowness" category with 30 instances of "slow" in December, down from 31 in October, although concerns about covid clearly jumped with mentions of covid or coronavirus spiking from 41 to 53 in December, the most since April. 

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - NOTE: Some of this data was impacted by Thanksgiving. For example, transit data is always down during holidays.  These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed.   The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.  This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red).  This data is as of Nov 29th. The seven day average is down 61% from last year (39% of last year).  The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.  This data is updated through November 28, 2020.  This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Note that dining is generally lower in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York - and only down slightly in the southern states.  This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 26th.  Movie ticket sales have picked up slightly over the last couple of months, and were at $12 million last week (compared to usually around $300 million per week during the Thanksgiving blockbuster period).  This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through November 21st. Hotel occupancy is currently down 32.6% year-over-year.  This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020:  This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of .  At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of November 20th, gasoline supplied was off about 11.7% YoY (about 88.3% of last year).  This graph is from Apple mobility.  "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index.   This data is through November 28th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 44% of the January level. It is at 31% in Chicago, and 49% in Houston - and declining recently.  Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).  This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This data is through Friday, November 27th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources. >He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".

Risks of a Double Dip Rising? – Menzie Chinn - That’s the message all around: The Hill “Slowing job growth raises fears of double-dip recession” (see alsothis), a CNN article has subheading “Double-dip recession fears”, Fortune  has “TIAA CEO Roger Ferguson thinks we could be headed for a ‘double-dip recession'”, while CNBC “Virus surge is leading to a double-dip recession and dollar crash, economist Stephen Roach warns”.We’ll have a bit more evidence one way or the other respecting the imminence of a relapse with tomorrow’s November employment release.  Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for employment as of 11/25 (light blue square), industrial production (red),  personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (12/1 release), NBER, Bloomberg (as of 12/3), and author’s calculations.I’ve included Bloomberg’s consensus as of today for tomorrow’s release (assuming no revision to October numbers). As I noted a couple days ago with respect to the employment series, “The November expected growth rate keeps on getting marked down; it was 4.5% about a week ago, that itself down from about 5% from a couple weeks ago.” It’s now 3.9% vs 4% a couple days ago.High frequency indicators show a distinct softening in the labor market such that one shouldn’t be too surprised if the job growth number comes in essentially at zero; from The Hill.Homebase also reported that declines in the number of businesses open, employees working and hours worked showed an economy just as weak as it was before summer’s jobs rebound, a foreboding sign for Friday’s employment report from the Labor Department. From Deutsche Bank today: Source: DB Covid Impact Tracker, 3 December 2020.Even if growth is positive in November, most of the concern is centered on Q1, in the wake of  lapsing fiscal support (under current law).Next stimulus bill: $908 billion bipartisan proposal vs. 'skinny' $500 billion plan -  Two stimulus bills are butting heads in Washington this week, each one vying to become the successful federal aid package for the end of 2020. It's been nearly nine months after Congress passed the CARES Act in March to provide a range of economic aid to individuals and families. And at the end of December, the final safeguards expire, leaving tens of millions of people to face hunger, debt, potential job loss and evictionas the final dollars run out. The difference between the stimulus candidates is rather stark. First, there's the size of the proposals. A bipartisan group of Senators and Representatives introduced a $908 billion framework, compared to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's roughly $500 billion (we think) revision of a Senate Republican plan. Neither one includes a second stimulus payment this time around, but another direct payment for qualified individuals could appear in 2021 (here's why).  Then there's the support behind the two bills. The $908 billion proposal is backed by a group of Republican and Democratic senators, and has the conditional support of top US leaders, including President-elect Joe Biden and a growing number of Republicans. (House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer backed it as "the basis for immediate" negotiations.) McConnell's $500 "skinny" bill, however, failed to advance in the Senate, most recently in September.  The last major category of differences comes down to the major programs the two bills support and how much money they might allocate as a bridge until another bill in 2021. Here are the major categories of funding currently under discussion.

 Senator Wyden Calls Mnuchin’s Grab of CARES Act Money “Sabotage.” Wyden Has a Right to be Suspicious of Mnuchin -- Pam Martens  - On November 25, Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon Tweeted this: “The Trump administration is working harder to sabotage the economy and tie the Biden administration’s hands than it is to help working families survive a pandemic.” Wyden’s Tweet included a clip from a Bloomberg News article about how U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin was planning to move $455 billion of CARES Act money to the General Fund of the Treasury so that the next Treasury Secretary in the Biden administration wouldn’t be able to use it to help bolster the economy. That same Bloomberg News article included this sentence: “The money in question includes $429 billion that Mnuchin is clawing back from the Fed — which backed some of the central bank’s emergency lending facilities…” But as we detailed last Friday, 75 percent of the $454 billion that the CARES Act earmarked for emergency lending programs at the Fed to help struggling Americans and businesses survive the pandemic and support bank lending was never handed over to those programs by Mnuchin. All that the Fed has been reporting on its weekly financial statements for months is $114 billion from the Treasury for these programs. The breakdown of that $114 billion is as follows, according to the Fed’s weekly H.4.1 financial statements: $10 billion for the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; $37.5 billion for the Corporate Credit Facilities to buy up corporate bonds and Exchange Traded Funds; $37.5 billion for the Main Street Lending Facilities for loans to small and mid-size businesses; $17.5 billion for the Municipal Liquidity Facility to support municipal bond issuance; $10 billion for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility; and $1.5 billion for the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility. Under the structure of the Fed’s emergency lending programs, it has the ability to leverage the money coming from the Treasury by as much as 10-to-1 to expand its lending programs, if the situation warrants. Wyden has very good reasons to be suspicious of Mnuchin’s motives. During Mnuchin’s Senate confirmation hearing on January 19, 2017, Wyden made the not-so-subtle suggestion that Mnuchin had falsified his financial disclosures to the Senate Committee. Wyden said this: “Mr. Mnuchin, a month ago you signed documents and an affidavit that omitted the Cayman Island fund, almost $100 million of real estate, six shell companies and a hedge fund in Anguilla. This was not self-corrected. The only reason it came to light was my staff found it and told you it had to be corrected.” Wyden further described Mnuchin’s unfitness for the job of U.S. Treasury Secretary as follows during the Senate confirmation hearing: “In early 2009, Mr. Mnuchin led a group of investors that purchased a bank called IndyMac, renaming it OneWest. OneWest was truly unique. While Mr. Mnuchin was CEO, OneWest proved it could put more vulnerable people on the street faster than just about anybody else around. “While he was CEO, a OneWest vice president admitted in a court proceeding to ‘robo-signing’ upward of 750 foreclosure documents a week. She spent less than 30 seconds on each, and in fact, she had shortened her signature to speed the process along. Investigations found that the bank frequently mishandled documents and skipped over reviewing them. All it took to plunge families into the nightmare of potentially losing their homes was 30 seconds of sloppy paperwork and a few haphazard signatures.

After CARES Act clash, Mnuchin and Powell unite over need for more aid— Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have had their disagreements recently about the fate of emergency relief funds mandated by the last big stimulus bill. But on Wednesday they were more united in pushing House lawmakers to pass additional stimulus before the end of the year. Mnuchin and Powell testified to the House Financial Services Committee, where they were pressed by lawmakers from both parties about how Congress should address the continued economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Mnuchin urged lawmakers to deploy unused funds for the Paycheck Protection Program to provide loans to small businesses in dire need of assistance. Prior stimulus had earmarked $659 billion for the PPP to offer forgivable loans through third-party banks. But no loans have been made since an Aug. 8 statutory deadline, even though funds are still available. “My single highest priority would be to activate the $140 billion in PPP funds that are not spent that we could immediately send out to the hardest-hit small businesses whose revenue is down dramatically,” Mnuchin said. In urging Congress to pass another pandemic relief bill, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, left, said lawmakers should “start with the labor market.”  Powell added that Congress should extend enhanced unemployment insurance that expires at the end of the year. The previous stimulus package provided unemployed workers an extra $600 a week until July 31, but President Trump signed an executive memo extending the enhanced unemployment benefit at $400 a week through December. “There are many sectors than can use some help. … I would start with the labor market,” said Powell. “There’s still 10 million people who are out of work because of the pandemic.” The comments from Mnuchin and Powell came as lawmakers are negotiating additional stimulus legislation months after Congress passed the original Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act in March. Treasury and the Fed have previously been at odds over CARES Act funds that back some of the Fed's emergency credit programs, with Mnuchin requesting that the Fed return any unused money in order to shut down the facilities at year-end. The central bank, meanwhile, has said it would prefer to keep the facilities open. Lawmakers from both parties appeared willing to move forward on passing additional relief.  However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has poured cold water on the legislation. 

 McConnell offering new coronavirus relief bill after talks with Mnuchin, Meadows - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Tuesday circulated a new coronavirus relief proposal that could garner support from the White House among Senate Republicans on Tuesday. McConnell, during a weekly press conference on Tuesday, said he had been speaking with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows about what President Trump could sign. “I think we have a sense of what that is. ... We’re going to send that out to all the offices and get some feedback to see how our members react,” McConnell said. “We don’t have time for messaging games. We don’t have time for lengthy negotiations,” McConnell added. Congress is quickly running out of time to pass lame-duck legislation with the House poised to leave as soon as next week. Congress faces a Dec. 11 government funding deadline and McConnell said any coronavirus relief will ride on that. McConnell previously twice offered a roughly $500 billion coronavirus relief bill that was rejected by Democrats. McConnell outlined the bill during a GOP caucus call on Tuesday, but did not provide details during his press conference about if there are any substantive differences between that in the new bill. But the proposal, according to a copy of the outline obtained by The Hill, would provide protections against coronavirus-related lawsuits, extend unemployment insurance for roughly a month and provide another round of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) small business assistance. It would also provide more money for the Postal Service, schools, testing and vaccine distribution. McConnell's decision to offer a new proposal comes as months of talks with the White House and Democratic leadership over a fifth coronavirus bill have failed to get results, despite cases climbing across the country. If Congress is going to pass additional relief, McConnell said he expected it would be folded into a must-pass government funding bill. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) have pointed to $2.2 trillion as their starting point. McConnell said the two Democratic leaders made him a new offer on coronavirus relief on Monday. A spokesman for Schumer didn’t immediately respond to a question about the offer. Pelosi, in a statement, said she had raised the prospects of another coronavirus bill with Mnuchin. “Secretary Mnuchin said he would be reviewing the proposal Leader Schumer and I made to Leader McConnell and Leader McCarthy last night and the bipartisan Senate proposal unveiled today. Additional COVID relief is long overdue and must be passed in this lame duck session,” she said. 

 Additional PPP funding included in $908 billion stimulus proposal - A bipartisan group of senators unveiled a $908 billion stimulus proposal Tuesday in an effort to break a monthslong impasse that’s now threatening to tip the economy back into contraction. Neither Republican nor Democratic leadership has signed on to the plan, however, leaving it facing the same long odds that a failed bipartisan House proposal faced before Election Day. President-elect Joe Biden has so far backed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has pushed a $2.4 trillion bill. Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who have been the two main negotiators on a stimulus package, are scheduled to talk by telephone later in the day, according to a person familiar with the matter. The topics include the spending bill needed to keep the government running and pandemic relief. Under the proposed compromise being pitched by the bipartisan group, small businesses would get a roughly $300 billion infusion for a version of the Paycheck Protection Program of forgivable loans and other aid, and state and local governments would get about $240 billion, including money for schools, according to three people familiar with the proposal. Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Mark Warner, D-Va., are among backers for the new bipartisan stimulus proposal.Bloomberg NewsAnother $180 billion would go to an extension of pandemic unemployment benefits, providing an additional $300-a-week for four months. Transportation including airlines, airports, transit and Amtrak would get $45 billion in funding, a person familiar with the plan said. Vaccines, testing and tracing would get $16 billion and health care providers $35 billion. Some $25 billion would go to rental assistance, $26 billion for nutrition and agriculture, $10 billion for the U.S. Postal Service, $10 billion for child care, $10 billion for broadband and $5 billion for opioid treatment. The package would include a short-term moratorium on liability lawsuits related to COVID-19 — a more sweeping version of which has been pressed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and opposed by Democratic leaders — to give states time to enact their own laws if they choose. The bipartisan proposal was reported earlier by The Washington Post. Speaking on the Senate floor Tuesday morning, McConnell made no mention of the new bipartisan push for relief, continuing to blame Democrats for seeking a package that is unrealistic and too costly. While U.S. stocks have shrugged off the risk of a year-end fiscal cliff, with investors encouraged by the prospect of coronavirus vaccines, economists have increasingly warned that the economy is in danger of a renewed contraction in the first quarter of 2021. Pandemic-related unemployment benefits are set to expire at year-end, while many businesses are getting squeezed by lockdowns as COVID-19 cases surge. Retail sales gains have weakened, and jobless claims remain stubbornly higher than the peak hit during the 2007-09 recession. Backers of the new plan include Republican Sens. Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney and Bill Cassidy along with Democratic Senators Joe Manchin, Mark Warner, Jeanne Shaheen and independent Angus King. Members of the bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus, which put forward a compromise during the fall that was rejected by Pelosi, also plan to endorse the new attempt.

McConnell shoots down bipartisan $900 billion coronavirus stimulus plan as stalemate drags on -- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rejected a proposed bipartisan coronavirus stimulus package Tuesday amid months of congressional inaction on curbing the economic damage from the outbreak. The Kentucky Republican, who has supported about $500 billion in new aid spending, said he wants to pass what he called a "targeted relief bill" this year. McConnell said he spoke to White House officials about what President Donald Trump would sign into law. He plans to offer potential solutions to GOP senators and get their feedback. "We just don't have time to waste time," he told reporters in response to the roughly $908 billion plan put together by bipartisan members of the GOP-controlled Senate and Democratic-held House. McConnell said a must-pass spending bill and pandemic relief provisions will "all likely come in one package." Congress needs to approve funding legislation by Dec. 11 to avoid a government shutdown. The framework of the bipartisan relief bill released Tuesday includes $288 billion in small business aid such as Paycheck Protection Program loans, $160 billion in state and local government relief, and $180 billion to fund a $300 per week supplemental unemployment benefit through March. It would put $16 billion into vaccine distribution, testing and contact tracing, funnel $82 billion into education, and put $45 billion into transportation. It would allocate funds for rental assistance, child care and broadband. The proposal would not include another direct payment to most Americans. It also would offer temporary federal protection from coronavirus-related lawsuits — a provision Democrats have opposed — while states determine their own laws. Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, a member of the congressional group that has discussed a new relief plan, earlier called it an "interim package" to provide support until President-elect Joe Biden takes office in January. "If there's one thing I'm hearing uniformly it's: 'Congress, do not leave town for the holidays leaving the country and the economy adrift with all these initial CARES [Act] programs running out,'".

Covid stimulus help for desperate ICU nurses is urgent. But Congress is on vacation. I have been an ICU nurse for 17 years. I never thought I'd leave. Now I'm not sure I'll ever go back.  I've been on the front lines of Covid-19 since it broke out eight months ago. More than 250,000 people have now died in the United States. Case numbers are rising in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. And health care workers like me are burning out.  Meanwhile, President Donald Trump spends his weekends golfing, and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell sent the Senate home for Thanksgiving vacation a day early, even though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention justadvised against holiday travel.  I wish medical workers could take vacation days, too. I ran out of those months ago, when I contracted Covid-19 treating patients in the ICU. I'm exhausted. I'm angry. I'm sick of watching patients die. I'm tired of comforting families feeling guilty over the birthday party that cost their loved one's life.  I finally hit my breaking point and recently quit doing direct patient care in a hospital setting. Without sufficient personal protective equipment and staffed hospital beds, a national plan for testing and sufficient relief for those hardest hit by the virus, including hospitals, I didn't have the strength to continue. A lot of my colleagues are hitting their breaking points, too, and that could lead to a mass exodus from the profession. Americans worry about their local grocery stores' running out of paper towels and toilet paper. Just imagine how much more worried they'll be if their local hospitals, overwhelmed by surges of Covid-19 patients, run out of nurses. Our leaders have left it up to medical workers to save American lives, but they've denied us the resources to do so. I can't fathom why they're on vacation when there is so much work to do. Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, and Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, are trying to negotiate a stimulus bill based on the updated HEROES Act that the House passed in October. This legislation would fund a national testing plan to reduce the spread of the coronavirus and increase capacity in hospitals. It would also give states funds for protective equipment and adequate staffing in front-line occupations. But instead of voting on this before the holidays, our lawmakers have left town.  In the ICU, I was treating the sickest patients I'd ever seen, under the most difficult conditions. Usually a nurse is responsible for one ICU patient at a time to ensure proper care, but I was pulled in all directions with multiple patients as the hospitals I worked at in New York City and Phoenix exceeded capacity.I'd be in one patient's room when my other patient's infusions ran dry next door. I'd have to run in before the pump died or the line clotted or their blood pressure crashed. I'd be preparing medications for a patient, and suddenly a group of nurses would have to rush off to assist another acutely ill patient. I would be left to "keep an eye on" all of their critical patients in the meantime.

 As Congress weighs new stimulus, senators spar over old one's demise — Senators sparred on Tuesday over the termination of several of the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending facilities as Congress continues to debate additional coronavirus stimulus legislation. At a Senate Banking Committee hearing, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin defended the termination of emergency lending facilities authorized by the Coronavirus, Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, as well as the return of excess funds to the Treasury Department. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who appeared before the committee, urged Congress to enact additional fiscal relief as the coronavirus pandemic continues to hit businesses and families. Mnuchin’s testimony was met with support from Republican senators, who said he was simply following the law. Democrats, on the other hand, criticized Treasury for inhibiting the ability of the incoming Democratic administration to stabilize the economy as the pandemic continues. “I agree with Secretary Mnuchin on the success of the 13(3) facilities and the termination language in the CARES Act,” said Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho. “The 13(3) facilities funded under the CARES Act were effective, and fulfilled their purpose to stabilize markets, facilitate credit flow and provide liquidity.” But Sen. Sherrod Brown, the top Democrat on the panel, criticized Treasury's request as a political ploy to hamper the incoming administration's ability to tackle the economic hardships when it assumes office next year. President-elect Joe Biden has already announced his intent to nominate former Fed Chair Janet Yellen to succeed Mnuchin at Treasury. “After the election, you canceled the Federal Reserve lending programs, taking away critical tools to invest in the people and communities and small businesses that make this country work,” Brown said. “There is no legitimate justification for it. Either you’re purposefully trying to stop President-elect Biden and Janet Yellen from getting to work for the people we all serve, or you’re so delusional that you think because the stock market is back up, everything is fine.” Mnuchin said that the funds allocated in the CARES Act for the Fed’s facilities were intended to be used temporarily. “My decision not to extend these facilities was not an economic decision,” Mnuchin said. “I’m surprised to hear Sen. Brown use words like ‘sabotage, no legitimate justification, delusional, malpractice.’ … This is perfectly clear. The Senate provided unprecedented authority to the secretary of the Treasury in giving me $500 billion. The statute was very clear. I find it implausible that any member of this committee believes that in voting for the CARES Act you were authorizing me to invest $500 billion to make loans in perpetuity.” Powell, on the other hand, said that the Fed would have maintained the emergency lending programs if the Treasury Department did not request their termination. “Our thinking is that we would have left the facilities in place to be backstops,” Powell said. “We don’t question the secretary’s decision about the CARES Act money, because that’s entirely his decision to make, but I think central banks generally would’ve done that.” Republican senators backed Mnuchin’s move and argued that Congress should enact new legislation to support coronavirus relief programs.

1 Percent of P.P.P. Borrowers Got Over One-Quarter of the Loan Money - The New York Times - The Paycheck Protection Program was the centerpiece of the federal government’s relief efforts to keep millions of small businesses afloat during the coronavirus pandemic. But new data shows what many had suspected all along: The money was shared unevenly, with the biggest sums going to a sliver of the companies in need. Detailed loan information released by the Small Business Administration late on Tuesday showed that a mere 1 percent of the program’s 5.2 million borrowers — those seeking $1.4 million and above — received more than a quarter of the $523 billion disbursed. About 600 businesses — including powerful law firms like Boies Schiller Flexner, restaurants like the steakhouse chain started by Ted Turner, as well as the operator of New York’s biggest horse tracks — received the maximum loan amount of $10 million, according to the data. It was the first full accounting of how federal money was spent through the program. Aimed at small companies — generally those with 500 or fewer workers — the program provided forgivable loans to desperate business owners who were faced with widespread shutdowns. But the program allowed businesses to take enough money to cover only a couple of months’ expenses, and it has come under criticism for its poorly defined rules and a hasty and haphazard rollout that allowed fraudsters to tap into the money, which will take years of litigation to sort out. The newly released data also includes details of loans made under the Economic Injury Disaster Loan system, a longstanding Small Business Administration program that was vastly expanded to offer relief to businesses affected by the pandemic. Together, the two programs spread more than $700 billion to struggling companies in just a few months. The loan data was released under an order by Judge James E. Boasberg of the U.S. District Court in Washington, who rejected the S.B.A.’s request to keep the information confidential. Previously released data on the paycheck program contained only ranges for larger loan amounts, and no information about loans under $150,000. Calling the program “vast in both size and sweep,” Judge Boasberg wrote in a ruling last month that “the weighty public interest in disclosure easily overcomes the far narrower privacy interest of borrowers who collectively received billions of taxpayer dollars in loans.” A tiny fraction of high-value loans made up a substantial portion of total P.P.P. money handed out With virus case counts rising rapidly and public health experts predicting a dark winter ahead, small businesses remain fearful about their survival. Many have used up their allotted aid, which was intended to cover up to two months of payroll costs and a handful of other expenses. Many owners say they would immediately apply for additional funds if available, but the rules permit only a single loan, and there has been little movement toward breaking a monthslong stalemate in Washington over additional aid.

White House and Congress clash over liability protections for businesses as firms cautiously weigh virus reopening plans - Congressional leaders are girding for a huge fight over the reentry of millions of Americans to the workplace, with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) insisting that employers be shielded from liability if their workers contract the coronavirus. He appears to have the backing of top White House officials.  Democratic leaders have declared they will oppose such blanket protections, putting Washington’s power brokers on opposite sides of a major issue that could have sweeping implications for health care and the economy in the coming months. The battle has unleashed a frenzy of lobbying, with major industry groups, technology firms, insurers, manufacturers, labor unions, and plaintiffs lawyers all squaring off. And Democratic leaders want to focus their next legislative effort at pumping more money into the economy, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) pointing to $1 trillion in needs for cities and states.  But for McConnell, one of the biggest concerns appears to be the threat of lawsuits against businesses. He has described the potential for a “second pandemic” of litigation, and he and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) say discussion of liability protections will be “absolutely essential.” Democratic leaders, however, have not expressed any interest in advancing such protections at a time when workers are risking their health by laboring at manufacturing jobs, grocery stores, hospitals and other businesses that have stayed open throughout the crisis. “Providing some kind of blanket immunity shield is an idea that’s the result of the majority leader’s imaginary boogeyman of a flood of lawsuits, a parade of horribles that is a political ploy,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said Friday. He said the proposal would be “a non-starter.”  In addition to the GOP demand for corporate liability protection, Democrats have demanded more assistance for cities and states, which McConnell says he won’t agree to without liability protections included. Hardy pointed to the example of meat packing facilities where workers have been required to stay on the job, in some cases, they say, without appropriate protective gear or in unsafe conditions. Some have fallen ill as a result. “We can’t be taking these rights away from all of these employees who are doing their best, these essential workers who are doing their best to help us,” Hardy said. The National Association of Manufacturers, for example, is asking Congress to limit lawsuits to instances where a manufacturer had actual knowledge that workers could be exposed to the coronavirus and consciously disregarded that information or acted with reckless indifference. The group is also seeking protections to ensure employers can collect and exchange critical information about employees’ health status, and asking for liability shields for manufacturers that are producing protective gear like respirators or masks.

Katie Porter in heated exchange with Mnuchin: 'You're play-acting to be a lawyer'  --Democratic Rep. Katie Porter (Calif.) on Wednesday got into a heated conversation with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin during a House Financial Services Committee hearing, with Porter claiming that Mnuchin was “play-acting to be a lawyer.” Porter specifically grilled Mnuchin over his support to move $455 billion in COVID-19 relief from the Federal Reserve back into the Treasury’s general fund, making it harder for his successor to access the emergency funding. Porter noted that under the CARES Act, any remaining funds may be moved to the Treasury only “on or after Jan. 1, 2026.” “Secretary Mnuchin, is it currently the year 2026? Yes or no?” the congresswoman asked via video conference at the hearing. Mnuchin responded, “First, let me comment. I do believe there’s an economic —” “Secretary Mnuchin, reclaiming my time,” Porter interrupted. “You’re putting words in my mouth that are not correct,” the Treasury secretary said. Porter then repeated her question, to which Mnuchin replied, “Of course it’s not 2026.” “How ridiculous to ask me that question to waste our time,” he added. “Well, Secretary Mnuchin, I think it’s ridiculous that you’re play-acting to be a lawyer when you have no legal degree,” Porter added. Mnuchin then explained that he has several lawyers advising him at the Department of the Treasury. “I’m more than happy to follow up with Chair [Maxine] Waters [D-Calif.] and explain all the legal provisions,” he added. “Secretary Mnuchin, are you in fact a lawyer?” Porter continued. “I do not have a legal degree. I have lawyers that report to me,” Mnuchin replied. Porter then asked Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who appeared before the committee Wednesday along with Mnuchin, if he was a lawyer. Powell, who previously practiced law and holds a legal degree from Georgetown University, confirmed he was a lawyer. “OK, so Secretary Mnuchin, you are trying to tell Chairman Powell to send over any remaining funds right now, and you’re claiming falsely, in my opinion, that that is what the law says,” Porter argued. Mnuchin then asked if Porter was a lawyer. Porter holds a degree from Harvard Law School and serves as a law professor at the University of California, Irvine. 

Coronavirus Stimulus Talks Moving in Right Direction, Party Leaders Say – WSJ —Lawmakers dove into negotiations Thursday over the two thorniest components of a new coronavirus aid package as momentum grew for a roughly $900 billion compromise proposal designed to break the congressional stalemate in time for the Christmas holiday.Earlier this week, a bipartisan group from the House and Senate had reached broad consensus around a new $908 billion aid package that included funding for state and local governments and legal protections for businesses and other entities operating during the pandemic. Lawmakers wrestled Thursday over the details of those parts of the proposal, which also includes money for unemployment insurance, small businesses and vaccine distribution, among other measures.“The number is not the problem,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.). “It’s policy differences.”Mr. Graham, a new voice in support of the bipartisan proposal, said he had spoken about the package with President Trump. “The president’s of the mindset a bill would be good for the country, he would like to see it happen, but it’s got to have the right policy,” he said. Both Mr. Trump and President-elect Joe Biden have urged Congress to reach a deal. “I think we are getting very close,” Mr. Trump said Thursday. “I want it to happen. And I believe we are getting very close to a deal.”Congressional leaders said Thursday that a coronavirus aid compromise was within reach, but that lawmakers would have to resolve the sticking points that have stymied them for months. Expectations built this week after Democratic leaders, who had backed a $2.4 trillion bill passed by the House, said Wednesday the new bipartisan proposal should serve as the basis of negotiations, signaling a willingness to embrace a smaller bill. “That is at least movement in the right direction,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said Thursday on the Senate floor. “The underlying reality is still with us: there are many important policies that have strong bipartisan support; there are many others that do not.”

Coronavirus stimulus update: Pelosi hopeful about relief deal after jobs report -  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said "there is momentum" toward a coronavirus stimulus deal after new data Friday showed sluggish jobs growth in the face of an infection surge. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 245,000 in November, falling significantly below expectations of 440,000. The sign of a flagging economic recovery comes amid a renewed congressional effort to pass a pandemic relief bill before the end of the year. Pelosi spoke to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Thursday for the first time in at least a month. The conversation boosted hopes about an agreement on Capitol Hill to lift an economy and health-care system damaged by the coronavirus. The California Democrat said she and the Kentucky Republican agreed they want to attach aid measures to a must-pass government funding bill — if they can resolve outstanding issues with that legislation. Lawmakers need to approve a spending plan by Dec. 11 to prevent a government shutdown. "The tone of our conversations is one that is indicative of the decision to get the job done," Pelosi told reporters at the Capitol. Democratic leaders, who have for months called for a sweeping package to boost the U.S. economy and health-care system, cited the jobs report as new justification for Congress to act. Pelosi described the data as "further indicative of the need for us to crush the virus so the economy can get going." House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks to reporters during her weekly news conference at the U.S.Capitol in Washington, U.S., December 4, 2020. Tom Brenner | Reuters Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said in a statement that "this latest jobs report shows the need for strong, urgent emergency relief is more important than ever." "Senate Republicans are increasingly understanding this urgency, and Leader McConnell should hear their pleas as well as those of the millions of struggling American families," he said. "This jobs report is blaring warning that a double-dip recession is looming and must be a wakeup call for anyone who is standing in the way of true bipartisan emergency relief," he continued. After his conversation with Pelosi on Thursday, McConnell told reporters the leaders are "both interested in getting an outcome, both on the omnibus and on a coronavirus package." Democrats, who hold the House and can block legislation in the Senate, have backed a $908 billion bipartisan relief framework unveiled by members of both chambers as a basis for talks with McConnell. The leader of the GOP-controlled Senate wants to pass a more narrow $500 billion aid plan. President-elect Joe Biden echoed the Democratic congressional leaders Friday after what he called a "grim" jobs report. The former vice president, who will spearhead the federal response to the pandemic when he takes office in January, said he was "encouraged" by the renewed push to pass a stimulus deal.

Bernie Sanders opposes emerging coronavirus aid deal, Ocasio-Cortez is open to it— Sen. Bernie Sanders said Friday he opposes theemerging bipartisan deal on coronavirus relief, objecting to giving "legal immunity to corporations" and the exclusion of a new round of $1,200 direct payments. "Given the enormous economic desperation facing working families in this country today, I will not be able to support the recently announced Manchin-Romney COVID proposal unless it is significantly improved," Sanders said in a statement, referring to Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va, and Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, two key figures in crafting the package. While many lawmakers in both parties have expressed optimism and support for the emerging deal, Sanders' statement indicates progressive resistance. Any successful legislation will need Republicans and Democrats. Movement toward a deal began after a bipartisan group of lawmakers released a $908 billion plan early this week aimed at breaking the logjam that has stalled progress for months. Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., have prioritized enacting liability protections to shield companies operating in the pandemic from lawsuits. "In my view, we have got to make sure that every working class American receives at least $1,200 in direct payments and that we do not provide a liability shield to corporations who break the law," Sanders said in a statement provided by his office. Hours earlier, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., expressed some similar concerns in an interview with NBC News but remained open to voting for a package. "Something is better than nothing but what I have real concerns about is the American people thinking 'Congress struck a deal, we're getting COVID relief,' and then their lives changing very little," she said, adding that she is "extremely concerned that it's not going to solve the immediate problems that people have." "If you're on the brink of an eviction or if you're behind on six months of bills, you need that check, you need the check, and state and local funding isn't going to help you," Ocasio-Cortez said. "And so the millions of people who are most desperately impacted need a check."

Trump doubles down on Section 230 repeal after GOP pushback -- President Trump doubled down Thursday on his calls for Republicans to include the repeal of a legal protection for tech companies in a must-pass defense policy bill after many in the GOP pushed back on tying the two issues together. In a tweet, Trump recognized the Republican criticism of his proposal but said repealing Section 230, a provision that protects tech firms from liability over third-party content on their platforms, is a “MUST.” Trump has railed against social media platforms throughout his tenure over unsubstantiated claims that companies such as Twitter and Facebook are unfairly censoring conservative content. He views a repeal of Section 230 as prime way of hitting back at the firms, and his criticism has ramped up in recent weeks as the platforms flag his posts featuring unfounded claims of widespread voter fraud in the presidential race. The president first demanded that Republicans tie a Section 230 repeal with the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) earlier this week, warning to veto the annual legislation if a repeal is not included. He had previously threatened to repeal the bill over a provision mandating that the Pentagon rename Confederate-named military bases. His calls appeared to fall on mostly deaf ears this week in Congress, however, as several Republicans said they’d already reached a deal with Democrats on language for the NDAA and that a provision regarding Section 230 did not belong in the defense bill. “230 has nothing to do with the military," said Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman James Inhofe (R-Okla.). "I agree with his sentiments ... but you can’t do it in this bill. That’s not a part of the bill." "I would hope that he would not actually follow through with that because the NDAA is critical," Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said regarding Trump’s veto threat over Section 230. Congressional negotiators began signing a compromise bill between the House and Senate versions, known as a conference report, Wednesday evening without any language on Section 230, a House aide confirmed to The Hill. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), meanwhile, has said he “cannot support” the NDAA because it doesn’t contain Section 230 reforms but does contain language regarding the Confederate-named bases, and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said he was supportive of Trump “using all the leverage he can” to reform the tech protection. Outgoing Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) has also said she “fully” backs Trump on his veto threat, tweeting, “please don’t back down.”

It’s official- Yellen is Biden’s pick for Treasury - President-elect Joe Biden took a significant step this week toward addressing the damage to the U.S. economy inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic, naming an economic team led by his choice for Treasury secretary, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. In Yellen, Biden will have a battle-tested policymaker who can draw on her nearly two decades at the Fed to help rebuild an economy in dire need of government cash and confidence. Biden has called for trillions of dollars in new stimulus to aid the small and mid-size businesses that are the nation’s jobs engine. Yellen’s expected to champion what she’s called “extraordinary fiscal support” to help the pandemic-ridden economy — deficit spending that she says is affordable given extraordinarily low interest rates. Biden also announced other picks for his economic policy team early Monday, including longtime Democratic policy staffer Neera Tanden to lead the Office of Management and Budget. Cecilia Rouse, formerly of the Obama administration and currently dean of Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs, will head the Council of Economic Advisers. Both roles require Senate confirmation. Adewale Adeyemo, a former senior adviser at BlackRock Inc. who is president of President Barack Obama’s foundation, will be nominated as the deputy Treasury secretary. At the top of their to-do list will be to break a deadlock in Congress over additional relief spending, an effort that would be far easier if Democrats win two Georgia Senate seats in runoff elections next month to wrest control of the chamber from Mitch McConnell’s Republicans. Yellen is seen winning easy confirmation in the Senate. While she occasionally sparred with Republican lawmakers as Fed chair, she’s widely respected, and some GOP senators publicly complimented her selection, which Biden has yet to make official. At 74, she will be the oldest Treasury secretary in recent memory, and the first woman to lead the agency.

Biden to nominate Neera Tanden, Cecilia Rouse to economic team: WSJ  - President-elect Joe Biden is reportedly planning on nominating a diverse group of women to serve as economic advisers alongside his nominee for Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen. According to a report from the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Biden will nominate Neera Tanden to serve as director of the Office of Management and Budget. Tanden currently serves as president and CEO of the center-left think tank Center for American Progress. He will also nominate Princeton University labor economist Cecilia Rouse to serve as chair to the Council of Economic Advisers sources close to the matter told the Journal. Jared Bernstein and Heather Boushey, two economic advisers from Biden's campaign, will also be nominated to serve alongside Rouse according to the report. Adewale “Wally” Adeyemo, a senior international economic adviser under the Obama administration, will also reportedly be nominated to serve as Yellen’s top deputy at the Treasury Department. Long-time aides and allies from the Obama administration have been picked for positions in Biden’s administration. Ron Klain, Antony Blinken and John Kerry are all former Obama staffers Biden has picked for top positions. Biden is expected to announce his nominations for Treasury and other economic roles on Tuesday. One of Biden’s largest challenges upon assuming office will be salvaging the economy decimated by the coronavirus pandemic. If Yellen is confirmed as Treasury secretary, she will be the first woman to serve in the role. The president-elect has been noted for nominating a diverse range of people to key roles. Avril Haines, a former top CIA official, has been nominated to be the head of national intelligence and she will also be the first woman to serve in the role if confirmed.

Biden's Economic, Communications Team Is Full Of Women -- Following his recent decision to appoint Janet Yellen as new Treasury Secretary, Joe Biden has decided to fill many of the key economic advisory spots with female staffers, all close to either Obama or Hillary Clinton. Biden is turning to longtime Hillary Clinton ally and Democratic policy staffer Neera Tanden to lead his Office of Management and Budget, while Cecilia Rouse will be head the Council of Economic Advisers, according to Bloomberg. Tanden, who currently leads the the liberal think-tank Center for American Progress, worked on the Obama administration’s health-care reform and was a close adviser to Hillary Clinton on her failed 2016 campaign.  Rouse also worked in the Obama administration as a member of the CEA and is currently dean of Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs. Biden will also nominate Adewale "Wally" Adeyemo to be deputy treasury secretary. Previously Wally worked as President of the Obama Foundation.Biden isn't stopping there, and according to a separate Bloomberg report Biden's senior communications team is composed entirely of women, including Jen Psaki as White House press secretary. Psaki, a former Obama White House communications director and State Department spokeswoman, has been an on-camera spokeswoman for Biden’s transition office.  Other women who will be tasked with interpreting Biden's "communications" include:

• Kate Bedingfield, deputy campaign manager and communications director during the 2020 campaign, who will be Biden’s White House communications director.
• Karine Jean-Pierre will be principal deputy press secretary after serving as a senior adviser during the campaign. She also worked on Barack Obama’s two presidential campaigns and in his White House as a regional political director.
• Pili Tobar, the Biden campaign’s communications director for coalitions, will be deputy communications director.
• Liz Alexander, whose work with Biden dates back to his time in the Senate, will be communications director for Jill Biden.

President-in-waiting Kamala Harris is also betting heavily on women:

• Ashley Etienne, a former communications director and senior adviser to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, will be Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’s communications director.
• Symone Sanders, one of Biden’s most visible campaign aides, will be senior adviser and chief spokesperson for Harris. Sanders advised Harris and traveled with her during the final weeks of the campaign, a task she’s continued in during the transition.

Cornyn spokesperson: Neera Tanden has 'no chance' of being confirmed as Biden's OMB pick - A spokesperson for Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said Sunday that President-elect Joe Biden's reported pick to head the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has "no chance" of being confirmed by the Senate should Republicans remain in control next year. In a tweet, Cornyn spokesman Drew Brandewie said that Center for American Progress head Neera Tanden's past history of "disparaging comments about the Republican Senators' whose votes she’ll need" made her confirmation highly unlikely. Tanden would need 51 votes in the Senate to become head of the OMB; Democrats currently control 48 seats in the Senate, though they are hoping to pick up two more in Georgia as the state's Senate elections head to runoffs in January.  The statement from Brandewie is a departure from his boss's remarks earlier this month. Cornyn said that Biden's win over President Trump in the 2020 election would not be assured until all states have certified their votes. Trump has refused to concede the election and has launched a host of legal challenges seeking to overturn results in various states that have yet to see any measure of success. “He is not president-elect until the votes are certified. So the answer to that is no,” Cornyn said, according to The Dallas Morning News. “And I don’t know what basis you or anybody else would claim that he’s president-elect before the votes are certified and these contests are resolved.” The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Tanden would be Biden's pick to lead the OMB. She has led the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, since 2010. During the 2016 election, Tanden was a top ally of the Democratic Party's then-nominee, Hillary Clinton, and was seen at the time as a likely candidate for a White House role.

With Tanden Choice, Democrats Stick It To Sanders Voters: Taibbi -- The Democratic Party is not known for its sense of humor, but news that Joe Biden will appoint longtime Center for American Progress chief Neera Tanden to his government qualifies as a rare, well-earned laugh line.  Tanden is famous for two things: having a puddle of DNC talking points in place of a cerebrum, and despising Bernie Sanders. She was #Resistance’s most visible anti-Sanders foil, spending awe-inspiring amounts of time on Twitter bludgeoning Sanders and his supporters as a deviant mob of Russian tools and covert “horseshoe theory” Trump-lovers. She has, to put it gently, an ardent social media following. Every prominent media figure with even a vague connection to Sanders learned in recent years to expect mud-drenched pushback from waves of “Neera trolls” after any public comment crossing DNC narratives. No name in blue politics is more associated with seething opposition to Sanders than Tanden.  Biden is making this person Director of the Office of Management and Budget. Sanders is the ranking member (and, perhaps, future chair) of the Senate Budget Committee. Every time Bernie even thinks about doing Committee business, he’ll be looking up at Neera Tanden. For a party whose normal idea of humor is ten thousand consecutive jokes about Trump being gay with Putin, that’s quite a creative “fuck you.” As friend and former Sanders aide David Sirota put it: IMO, it is not a coincidence that they are putting Neera Tanden -- the single biggest, most aggressive Bernie Sanders critic in the United States of America -- specifically at OMB while Sanders is Senate Budget Committee ranking/chair.  — David Sirota (@davidsirota) November 29, 2020   The Democrats still have to reckon with Trumpism in both the short and long term, but the Sanders movement on their other flank has at least temporarily been routed as a serious oppositional force. The Democrats know this, which is part of the joke of the Tanden appointment. While the party’s labors to oppose Trump have been incoherent at best, the campaign to kneecap Sanders has been, let’s admit it, brilliant. The Blue Apparat has always despised Bernie and his various precursor movements far more than it hated Republicans, and for good reason. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of Clintonite hacks in cushy Washington sinecures who would have retained their spots in the event of a loss to Trump. A Sanders win would have put them all out of the politics business for a while. It was unsurprising to see the party mainstream marshaling all of what passes for its brainpower to devise a long game to crate-train Sanders, who in less than a year went from oppositional favorite to seize the Democratic nomination to obedient afterthought.

Biden's outspoken nominee to run budget office deletes 1,000 tweets - Joe Biden’s nominee for a key economic post has deleted more than a thousand of her own tweets, some of which were critical of senators who now hold her fate in their hands.  The Daily Beast first reported the steps by Neera Tanden, the president of the Center for American Progress (CAP) think tank who Biden has nominated to lead the federal Office of Management and Budget.“Can people on here please focus their ire on [Senate majority leader Mitch] McConnell and the GOP senators who are up [for re-election] this cycle who enable him,” Tanden wrote in June 2019, in a tweet recovered by the Beast.  Tanden named those “enablers” as Cory Gardner, Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, John Cornyn, David Perdue, Thom Tillis “and many more”.  A tweet calling McConnell “#MoscowMitch”, a common nickname for the majority leader among liberals during the investigation of Donald Trump’s links to Russia, was also among those deleted. Tanden’s fate may hinge on two runoff elections in Georgia in January. IfDemocrats win both seats – one held by Perdue – they will control the Senate via Kamala Harris’s casting vote as vice-president. That would make Tanden’s confirmation achievable – if party discipline held. But Tanden, a former policy aide to Hillary Clinton, has also been a fierce critic of senators from the Democratic side of the aisle, for example the progressive Vermont senator Bernie Sanders.  “It’s an odd choice for Biden and his ‘healing’ presidency to bring someone in who is so combative, especially on Twitter, being that we just ended a four-year Twitter presidency,” Josh Fox, a climate activist and Sanders surrogate, told the Beast. “She causes ire unnecessarily.”

Joe Biden Chooses Brian Deese as Top Economic Adviser – WSJ —President-elect Joe Biden has chosen Brian Deese, a former adviser to Barack Obama, to be the director of the National Economic Council, according to people familiar with the matter. In his new post, which doesn’t require Senate confirmation, Mr. Deese will play a lead role in implementing Mr. Biden’s economic agenda, with a focus on rebuilding the economy amid a pandemic that has devastated many U.S. businesses and resulted in millions of lost jobs. Mr. Deese served in multiple senior White House roles during the Obama administration. After working on Mr. Obama’s 2008 campaign, he joined Mr. Obama’s National Economic Council, eventually rising to deputy director. He then served as deputy director of the White House Office of Management and Budget. He was later promoted to senior adviser to the president, a position that focused in part on climate change and energy issues. He played a central role in negotiating the international climate-change agreement that was reached in Paris in 2015. During his White House tenure, he also worked on issues related to the automotive and financial industries, as well as the Supreme Court. After leaving the White House, Mr. Deese joined BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, as global head of sustainable investing. Some progressive groups have raised concerns about Mr. Deese’s role at BlackRock, arguing that Mr. Biden shouldn’t tap individuals with ties to corporations and the financial sector to serve in his administration. But Mr. Deese’s former colleagues defended him. “I consider Brian to be one of the smartest climate advocates that I ever had the pleasure to work with,” said former Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy, who worked alongside Mr. Deese during the Obama administration. “If anybody says he isn’t a climate advocate, I can dispute that.” Mr. Deese didn’t respond to requests for comment. Mr. Biden’s transition team, which declined to comment, didn’t unveil Mr. Deese’s appointment as part of several economy-related jobs announced on Monday. People familiar with the matter said Mr. Deese’s appointment is expected to be announced in the coming days.

  Who is Biden’s top economic adviser Brian Deese? - President-elect Joe Biden has reportedly selected Brian Deese, an executive at the Wall Street investment firm BlackRock, as director of the National Economic Council, according to several major news outlets. “In his new post, which doesn’t require Senate confirmation, Mr. Deese will play a lead role in implementing Mr. Biden’s economic agenda,” the Wall Street Journal wrote Monday. While Deese was not among those Biden introduced Tuesday as his “economic team,” an announcement is expected soon. Deese, the Global Head of Sustainable Investment at BlackRock, would be the second executive chosen by the incoming administration from the world’s largest asset manager, which controls $7 trillion in assets and is a major shareholder in Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo, Apple, Microsoft and other global corporate giants.  On Tuesday, Adewale “Wally” Adeyemo, a former chief of staff to BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink, was named top deputy to Janet Yellen, the former Federal Reserve Chairwoman who Biden picked for Secretary of the Treasury. Tom Donilon, chairman of BlackRock Investment Institute and brother of Biden’s chief campaign political strategist, had been considered for the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, but the Wall Street Journalreported Monday that Donilon decided to stay in the “private sector.”The selection of Deese and Adeyemo—who both previously served in the Obama administration—exemplifies the revolving door between Wall Street and Washington, DC, which operates constantly, regardless of which party controls the White House. It is a further signal to the financial oligarchy that a Biden administration will dispense with its rhetoric about raising taxes on the wealthy and continue funneling trillions into the stock markets. “By picking folks with deep ties to large asset managers,” Tyler Gellasch, executive director of investor trade group Healthy Markets Association, told the Journal, “the administration can help assuage financial executives’ concerns. It sends a clear signal to the industry to breathe easier: They can plan for stability without likely facing massive new regulatory or tax risks.” After working on Obama’s 2008 election campaign, Deese was appointed Special Assistant to the President for economic policy and served on the National Economic Council as Obama took over the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) from the outgoing George Bush administration, and pumped massive resources into the same banks and financial institutions whose criminal activities had crashed the economy. Deese, who had no formal training as an economist, then made a name for himself for being the most aggressive advocate of throwing General Motors and Chrysler Corp. into bankruptcy in 2009. In a May 2009 New York Times article, headlined “The 31-Year-Old in Charge of Dismantling G.M.,” David Sanger wrote, “It is not every 31-year-old who, in a first government job, finds himself dismantling General Motors and rewriting the rules of American capitalism. “But that, in short, is the job description for Brian Deese, a not-quite graduate of Yale Law School who had never set foot in an automotive assembly plant until he took on his nearly unseen role in remaking the American automotive industry.”

 Hispanic caucus unhappy with transition team treatment of Lujan Grisham -  Hispanic groups and lawmakers expressed surprise and some anger Thursday at how New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) has been treated by President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team. Lujan Grisham was offered but rejected a Cabinet position as Biden’s Interior Department secretary, a transition team source told The Hill on Wednesday. Advocacy groups had been pushing her for Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary. It’s possible the New Mexico governor is still in the mix for that position, particularly after Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo on Thursday publicly said she was no longer up for that role. But lawmakers and other supporters of Lujan Grisham expressed surprise that the Biden team would leak that she had been offered and rejected a different Cabinet role. “I'm just kind of confused, it throws all of us off,” said Paul Martinez, who serves on the board of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), which had pushed for Lujan Grisham to get the HHS slot and were unaware she was being considered for Interior. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus “laid into the transition team” during a virtual meeting Thursday for the way Lujan Grisham was treated, according to a source familiar with the discussion. During the conversation, the transition committed to putting a Latina in a Cabinet role, the source said, though it’s unclear if it will be the New Mexico governor. Another source close to the caucus said members “were pissed” and that the Biden transition team did “a disservice not only to the caucus but to the governor.” “The feeling is that those leaks coming out of transition were an attempt to hurt the governor, and the caucus is not happy about it,” this source said, lamenting the limited number of Hispanic women being mulled for positions. 

Destructive Trump loyalists undermining Pentagon transition, retired admiral warns - Retired US admiral Michael Mullen has said he is “very concerned” about “Trump loyalists” working in the Pentagon amidst Joe Biden’s transition period.  During an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, Mr Mullen discussed the importance of the peaceful transfer of power and the impact of Donald Trump’s delay of the official transition process. “I think I'm actually very concerned about the Trump loyalists who have now gone to work in the Pentagon,” Mr Mullen said, suggesting that they could cause issues for Mr Biden during the transition period. “I mean, recently, Secretary Esper was fired, and a host of other people left the building. And there are some real Trump loyalists there now in charge and it's pretty difficult to think that over the course of 50 or 60 days you can do something constructive, but you can do something that's really destructive," he added.  Mr Trump took to Twitter on 23 November to finally announce that he had given GSA head Emily Murphy permission to work with Mr Biden’s transition team “in the best interest of our country”.  During the interview Mr Mullen considered Mr Trump’s attitude towards the transition in comparison to George W Bush and former President Barack Obama, fearing that the delay could have an impact on national security issues. “One of the things I learned in the job that I had is you don't want to, you'd like to do all you can to not box in the president - to give any president as many options and as much space as possible. So, this is obviously the opposite case right now,” he said. “It appears that the current administration is trying to lock in as many options as, as many issues as possible to make it much more difficult for President-elect Biden to govern. And actually, historically, that has just never been the case.”

US State Department moves to suppress criticism of Israel - On Nov. 19, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the State Department would designate the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement as anti-Semitic, and that any non-profit groups supporting BDS would be cut off from government funding. In effect, all opposition to or criticism of the Israeli state is to be declared anti-Semitic, paving the road for a vicious assault on free speech and democratic rights. Speaking in Jerusalem alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Pompeo referred to the BDS movement as a “cancer” and vowed to identify any organizations that were affiliated with the movement, stating that the US “will regard the global anti-Israel BDS campaign as anti-Semitic… We will immediately take steps to identify organizations that engage in hateful BDS conduct and withdraw US government support for such groups.” Pompeo went on to visit an Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank, the first secretary of state to do so; he later toured the Syrian Golan Heights, a strategic high ground occupied by Israel during the 1967 Six Day War and later annexed illegally. The State Department went on to mandate that goods produced in the occupied territories may be labeled “Made in Israel.” Such provocative moves are clearly meant to legitimize the Israeli state’s flagrant violations of international law and its imposition of a brutal apartheid regime upon the Palestinians. In a separate press statement, Pompeo laid out the official line of the US government regarding the BDS movement: “It is the policy of the United States to combat anti-Semitism everywhere in the world and in whatever form it appears, including all forms of discrimination and hatred rooted in anti-Semitism. The United States strongly opposes the global discriminatory boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) campaign (Global BDS Campaign) … As we have made clear, anti-Zionism is anti-Semitism. The United States is, therefore, committed to countering the Global BDS Campaign as a manifestation of anti-Semitism.” He went on, “To advance this policy, I have directed the Office of the Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism to identify organizations that engage in, or otherwise support, the Global BDS Campaign… The United States urges governments around the world to take appropriate steps to ensure that their funds are not provided directly or indirectly to organizations engaged in anti-Semitic BDS activities.”

US Slaps More Sanctions on Iran, Claiming Tehran Has Secret Chemical Weapons — The US slapped more sanctions on Iran on Thursday, claiming that Tehran is operating a secret chemical weapons program despite a lack of evidence and Iran’s staunch opposition to chemical warfare.  The Treasury Department announced that the Shahid Meisami Group and its director had been added to the US sanctions list over alleged links to chemical weapons research. “The United States will continue to counter any efforts by the Iranian regime to develop chemical weapons,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement.  Many Iranians were victims of chemical weapons attacks during the Iran-Iraq war that lasted from 1980 to 1988. The US supported Saddam Hussein in the war while being aware that he was using chemical weapons.  CIA documents that were declassified in 2013 revealed that in 1988, the US shared intelligence with Hussein to show the location of Iranian troops, knowing he would use lethal gas against them. The documents revealed the US had firm evidence Hussein was using chemical weapons as early as 1983.  A 1994 congressional inquiry found that US companies shipped anthrax and dozens of other biological agents that could be used to make chemical weapons to Iraq during the war.  Chemical weapons killed an estimated 20,000 Iranians during the war, and 100,000 Iranians survived the attacks. Many are still suffering from symptoms today. Since coronavirus hit Iran, veterans of the war with respiratory illnesses related to chemical weapons have been especially susceptible to the disease.  Despite Iraq’s use of chemical weapons against Iran’s soldiers and civilians, the Iranians never chose to use the internationally banned weapons due to the first supreme leader’s fatwa against them. In 2014, journalist Gareth Porter spoke with Mohsen Rafighdoost, who served as minister of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps throughout the Iran-Iraq war. Rafighdoost said he proposed to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini that Iran should begin developing both chemical and nuclear weapons. Rafighdoost was told in two seperate meetings that weapons of mass destruction went against Islam, a view the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has also expressed.

 Afghan pilot who saved Americans hiding from Taliban after US denies plea for refuge - A decorated Afghan Air Force pilot who had saved American lives is now in hiding in Afghanistan from the Taliban after the US military suddenly changed course and denied his emergency request to seek refuge in America late last month. “I cannot go backward,” Maj. Mohammed Naiem Asadi, 32, told military news site Stars and Stripes, which broke the news. “And I cannot go forward, because I am not allowed to go forward.” Stars and Stripes accessed documents which showed the Pentagon initially approved the request from Mr Asadi, who reportedly killed more Taliban fighters than anyone else in the Afghan Air Force and helped protect an American pilot who crashed their plane in northern Afghanistan this summer. “The appropriate officials determined that DoD could not support the request,” Army Maj. Rob Lodewick, a Pentagon spokesman, confirmed to the publication in a statement. After his family began receiving death threats, Mr Asadi, as well as his wife and four-year-old daughter, sought protection under the Significant Public Benefit Parole, a temporary visa program which would allow them to remain in the US, where they hoped to apply for asylum. The Pentagon reportedly nixed the move when senior officials found out the decision had been made without their approval. The move infuriated those who had advocated on the airman’s behalf, who said he had nobly aided the US war effort. “The family was about to travel to the U.S. in good faith, that they had followed the proper process, and been approved,” Bryan P. McAlister, a former Army pilot who was Asadi’s advisor, told Stars and Stripes. “Who is going to finally do the right thing, and let them come to the United States, where the American people are ready to receive and care for them?”

Nike, Coca-Cola, Apple among Companies Lobbying against Uyghur Forced Labor Bill -Multinational corporations including Nike and Coca-Cola are lobbying to water down legislation that would ban products made with forced labor in China’s Xinjiang province, the New York Times reported on Sunday. China has attempted to cement state power over millions of Muslim citizens in Xinjiang, mostly Uyghur Muslims along with Kazakhs and other minorities. The ruling Communist Party has placed Uyghurs in so-called reeducation camps that attempt to erase their attachment to Islam, and has also embarked on a campaign of forced sterilization of Uyghur women.Numerous global supply chains are based in Xinjiang, including for cotton and coal, and China has employed forced Uyghur labor for various factories. The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which passed the House 406-3 in September and is currently under consideration in the Senate, would ban imports of good from Xinjiang unless U.S. customs officials could verify that the goods were not produced using forced labor.However, multinational companies are lobbying against the legislation, saying that while they do not support use of forced labor, the bill could have a detrimental impact on their supply chains. Along with Nike and Coca-Cola, tech giant Apple is also pushing to weaken some restrictions, the Washington Post reported last week.Coca-Cola “strictly prohibits any type of forced labor in our supply chain” and employs third-party auditors to enforce the policy, the company said in a statement to the Times. Nike said it “did not lobby against” the legislation but had “constructive discussions” with congressional aides on keeping its supply chain free of forced labor.Pro-business groups including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have also joined the lobbying efforts.A report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in March of this year concluded that at least 80,000 Uyghurs have been sent away from their homes to labor in factories in other parts of China.

Trump’s Trade War by the NIPA Numbers -  Menzie Chinn - National Income and Product Accounts numbers that is.  I was prepping for macro lecture on Monday, which covers open economy macro. One topic I planned to cover is evaluation of the Trump trade war. We know the Phase 1 trade deal with China was a miserable failure, and was failing miserably even before Covid-19 struck the US.  What about the US trade balance overall? As any decent macroeconomist knows, the trade balance is not a particularly useful measure of economic performance in the absence of context, but Mr. Trump has made it a key metric. So, here are US exports, imports, in real terms.  I exclude oil to the extent that trade policy doesn’t really impact here, but the results do not change substantively even if oil is included. Even before Covid-19 struck, US real imports were up, and US real exports were down relative to 2018Q1, when I date the trade war starting. (Including oil means that exports were static, up about 1 (one) billion Ch.2012$ (non-annualized).  For those interested, imports were higher in 2019Q4 than when Mr. Trump took office. Exports were a bit higher (23 bn. Ch.12$). Net exports in total were down $6.2 billion. Mr. Trump has often dismissed services imports and exports as irrelevant (in this sense, Mr. Trump is remarkably “Marxian” in the old sense of the word). So, let’s take a look at the ex-services flows.  Why was Trump’s trade war unsuccessful, even on terms he set? Any decent macroeconomist will tell you, but I’ll just quote Blanchard (Macroeconomics, 8th edition): (1) “To the extent that it triggered a tariff war, and other countries responded by raising tariffs on US goods, US exports might decrease in line with the decrease in US imports..) (2) To the extent that the US economy was close to potential, as was indeed the case in 2018, an increase in output might lead to overheating and thus force the Fed to increase the interest rate. This in turn would lead to a dollar appreciation… (3) Even if the Fed did not increase the interest rate, expectations of a lower trade deficit and thus smaller need for foreign borrowing, now and in the future, may lead to an appreciation of the dollar… (4) Finally, while it was increasing tariffs, the Trump administration also implemented a tax reform passed in 2017, which led to a large increase in the fiscal deficit in 2018…” (page 408). I’ve mentioned each one of these (save 3) in previous posts. To these, let me add that the slapdash and unprecedented nature of the trade policy approach led to really high levels of economic policy uncertainty — both at home, particularly with respect to trade policy, and abroad — that further appreciated the US dollar, crowding out net exports further.  As of November 2019, Blanchard indicated that it was “too early to make strong conclusions” about the trade war’s outcome. I think with an additional year’s data, we can conclude that — on Mr. Trump’s own terms — Trump was a loser.

A Rush to Expand the Border Wall That Many Fear Is Here to Stay— Four years ago, President Donald Trump took office with a pledge to build a towering wall on America’s border with Mexico — a symbol of his determination to halt immigration from countries to the south and build a barrier that would long outlast him. President-elect Joe Biden has said he hopes to halt construction of the border wall, but the outgoing administration is rushing to complete as much wall as possible in its last weeks in power, dynamiting through some of the border’s most forbidding terrain. The breakneck pace at which construction is continuing all but assures that the wall, whatever Biden decides to do, is here to stay for the foreseeable future, establishing a contentious legacy for Trump in places that were crucial to his defeat. In southeastern Arizona, the continuing political divisiveness around the president’s signature construction project has pitted rancher against rancher and neighbor against neighbor in a state that a Democratic presidential candidate narrowly carried for the first time in decades. The region is emerging as one of the Trump administration’s last centers of wall building as blasting crews feverishly tear through the remote Peloncillo Mountains, where ocelots and bighorn sheep roam through woodlands of cottonwoods and sycamores. “Wildlife corridors, the archaeology and history, that’s all being blasted to oblivion or destroyed already,” said Bill McDonald, 68, a fifth-generation cattleman and former lifelong Republican who voted for Biden. “Tragedy is the word I use to describe it.” Even those like McDonald who loathe the wall are bracing for the possibility that it could endure for decades to come, basing their assessments on signals from Biden’s transition team. While the president-elect has said he will halt new wall construction, other immigration priorities like ending travel bans, accepting more refugees and easing asylum restrictions are eclipsing calls to tear down portions of the wall that already exist. 

 Trump administration sues Facebook, alleges company discriminated against U.S. workers  - The Trump administration is suing Facebook over allegations that the tech giant discriminated against U.S. workers by creating recruitment processes that favored temporary visa holders, according to a complaint filed by the Department of Justice (DOJ) Thursday. The complaint alleges that Facebook created a separate hiring process for certain temporary immigration status holders, such as H-1B visa holders, and alleges Facebook did not consider U.S. workers for more than 2,600 positions with an average salary of about $156,000. The complaint is the Trump administration’s latest action targeting a big tech company. It follows a nearly two-year investigation and targets hiring practices between Jan. 1, 2018, and Sept. 18, 2019. “Our message to workers is clear: if companies deny employment opportunities by illegally preferring temporary visa holders, the Department of Justice will hold them accountable. Our message to all employers — including those in the technology sector — is clear: you cannot illegally prefer to recruit, consider, or hire temporary visa holders over U.S. workers,” Assistant Attorney General Eric S. Dreiband of the Civil Rights Division said in a statement. A Facebook spokesperson said in a statement that “while we dispute the allegations in the complaint, we cannot comment further on pending litigation.” The spokesperson also said that Facebook has been cooperating with the DOJ in its review of this issue. The complaint alleges that when certain employees holding temporary immigration status at Facebook ask the company for permanent positions through the permanent labor certification process, the tech giant “creates a permanent position that is only open to that temporary visa holder.” For those positions, Facebook “implements a recruitment process intentionally designed to deter U.S. workers from applying,” including not advertising the post on its website, not accepting applications online and requiring candidates to mail in their applications, the complaint alleges. “Not surprisingly, Facebook often gets zero applications for these advertised positions. And even when U.S. workers do apply, Facebook will not consider them for the advertised positions. Instead, Facebook fills these positions exclusively with temporary visa holders. Simply put, Facebook reserves these positions for temporary visa holders,” the complaint alleges. 

Scott Atlas resigns as coronavirus adviser to Trump - Scott Atlas turned in his resignation on Monday from his role as a special adviser to President Trump on the coronavirus, capping off a controversial tenure in which he gained considerable influence while pushing questionable approaches to combating the pandemic.  Atlas joined the administration in August as a special government employee, meaning he was eligible to serve a 130-day detail. His tenure was slated to expire this week, but he filed his resignation, effective Tuesday, a White House official confirmed on Monday evening. The exit was first reported by Fox News. Atlas, who joined the administration after Trump noticed him during Fox News appearances, attracted controversy for his influence over the president's thinking on the pandemic. He is not an infectious diseases expert, and he pushed the widely disputed herd immunity theory in which some argue that older, at-risk populations should be protected while younger, healthier people would be free of restrictions.  Several other members of the White House coronavirus task force raised concerns about Atlas or openly disputed his views.  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield was overheard ripping Atlas on a flight; White House coronavirus response coordinator Deborah Birx confronted Vice President Pence about Atlas's increasing influence; and Anthony Fauci, the government's top infectious diseases expert, said earlier this month he "totally"disagreed with Atlas's views.  Atlas's colleagues at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University alsodistanced themselves from the White House adviser earlier this month. Trump has all but moved on from the pandemic response since losing the election to President-elect Joe Biden earlier this month. He has spoken periodically about progress on vaccine development, but has otherwise paid little public attention to rising infection rates, surging hospitalizations and mounting deaths from the virus. Millions of Americans contracted the coronavirus in November alone.

America’s failures have led to a new daily record in Covid-19 deaths  -On December 2, a staggering 2,885 Americans were reported to have died ofCovid-19, according to the New York Times. It was the highest single-day toll of the year.It was nearly the same number of people who died in the 9/11 attacks (2,977). And it was far more than the estimated 1,800 Americans who died over a matter of days when Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in 2005. During World War II, from the Pearl Harbor attacks in December 1941 to Japan’s surrender, about 300 US soldiers died every day on average (and about 407,000 were dead in total by August 1945).Unfortunately, the coronavirus pandemic has more in common with a slow-motion tragedy, like a war, than an acute event like 9/11. More than 2,600 deaths were reported on December 1, the day before the US set its new record for daily deaths; the previous high had been 2,752 on April 15. With the number of daily new cases and hospitalizations still rising across the country, public health experts expect new terrible death records will be set over the coming winter.Coronavirus pandemic metrics are slippery things, however. America was so bad at testing during the first few months of the virus’s spread that there were likely quite a few cases and deaths that were caused by Covid-19 but were not counted as such. Even today, the US positive test rate is so high that experts say the statistics aren’t coming close to capturing every case or death.According to the Johns Hopkins University tracker, the official number of total deaths attributed to Covid-19 in the US is 274,121. But total excess deaths — the number of deaths above what would be expected in a normal year — has reached 345,000, according to the Times. Most, though not all, of those deaths are likely uncounted Covid-19 fatalities. At a certain point, this is all academic. What’s undeniable is that America is entering a period of mass death unlike anything we’ve seen so far in the pandemic. Cases and hospitalizations have been rising steadily, and deaths always follow. Improvements in treatment have lowered the fatality rate, but a higher number of hospitalized patients will inevitably mean more deaths. And it is older, low-income, and minority Americans who are dying at disproportionate rates from the coronavirus.

Donald Trump stays silent as US sees record 2,804 coronavirus deaths in a day - A day after 2,804 Americans died in a single day from the coronavirus pandemic – almost as many as in the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks – Donald Trump said nothing about the harrowing national crisis. The US president’s silence broke from the tradition of predecessors who have sought to play the role of “consoler-in-chief” to the American public after deadly bombings, school shootings and other tragedies. Trump instead remains consumed with false allegations that last month’s presidential election, which he lost to Joe Biden, was rigged against him. On Wednesday, when the pandemic death toll hit its record, he released a 46-minute videotaped speech that spread lies and disinformation about voter fraud.On Thursday, as the country grappled with the traumatic loss of life, Trump was preoccupied with presenting an award to an American football coach. In a subsequent exchange with reporters he did not directly address the unfolding national tragedy, while on Twitter he continued to push baseless conspiracy theories. Covid-19 cases in the US have doubled within 10 weeks to a total of 14m. Wednesday saw a record of more than 100,000 people in hospital. The day’s death toll of 2,804, recorded by Johns Hopkins University, was the worst since the start of the pandemic. The total stands at more than 275,000.  The US has 4% of the world’s population and 19% of its deaths from Covid-19. “This is hardly what people mean by American exceptionalism,” Chuck Todd, host of NBC’s influential Meet the Press programme, observed on Sunday. Even as Trump pursues his doomed legal campaign to overturn the election result, experts warn that the holiday season could mark the most dangerous public health crisis in the history of the country, straining ambulance servicesand hospitals to breaking point.  Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,warned on Wednesday: “The reality is, December and January and February are going to be tough times. I actually believe they’re going to be the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation.” He added that the total number of deaths could approach 450,000 by February if Americans fail to follow public health guidelines to mitigate the spread of the virus. Jonathan Reiner, a cardiologist and professor of medicine at George Washington University, told CNN: “By this time next week, we are going to be talking about 3,000 deaths a day – that’s 9/11 every single day.” After 9/11, George W Bush sought to rally the nation from the Oval Office and Ground Zero in New York. Bill Clinton offered comfort after the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 and Barack Obama sang Amazing Grace in Charleston, South Carolina, as it tried to heal after nine African Americans were shot dead at church in 2015. But Trump spent the election promising his campaign rallies – with few face masks and little physical distancing – that America was “rounding the turn” on the pandemic and the media would pay it no attention once the votes were in.

‘We’re No. 28! And Dropping!’ - The newest Social Progress Index, shared with me before its official release Thursday morning, finds that out of 163 countries assessed worldwide, the United States, Brazil and Hungary are the only ones in which people are worse off than when the index began in 2011. And the declines in Brazil and Hungary were smaller than America’s. The index, inspired by research of Nobel-winning economists, collects 50 metrics of well-being — nutrition, safety, freedom, the environment, health, education and more — to measure quality of life. Norway comes out on top in the 2020 edition, followed by Denmark, Finland and New Zealand. South Sudan is at the bottom, with Chad, Central African Republic and Eritrea just behind. The United States, despite its immense wealth, military power and cultural influence, ranks 28th — having slipped from 19th in 2011. The index now puts the United States behind significantly poorer countries, including Estonia, Czech Republic, Cyprus and Greece. “We are no longer the country we like to think we are,” said Porter. The United States ranks No. 1 in the world in quality of universities, but No. 91 in access to quality basic education. The U.S. leads the world in medical technology, yet we are No. 97 in access to quality health care. The Social Progress Index finds that Americans have health statistics similar to those of people in Chile, Jordan and Albania, while kids in the United States get an education roughly on par with what children get in Uzbekistan and Mongolia. A majority of countries have lower homicide rates, and most other advanced countries have lower traffic fatality rates and better sanitation and internet access. The decline of the United States over the last decade in this index — more than any country in the world — is a reminder that we Americans face structural problems that predate President Trump and that festered under leaders of both parties. Trump is a symptom of this larger malaise, and also a cause of its acceleration. David G. Blanchflower, a Dartmouth economist, has new research showing that the share of Americans reporting in effect that every day is a bad mental health day has doubled over 25 years. “Rising distress and despair are largely American phenomenon not observed in other advanced countries,” Blanchflower told me.

 Behind the Scenes in Swamptopia - Kunstler - Yet these post-election days are gravid with portent. The major newspapers and cable news platforms report nothing beyond their heartwarming narrative of Biden risin’ with Woke times a’comin’— but the casual observer senses powerful intrigues swirling backstage in Swamptopia. Something tells me the scene is about to liven up this week, even explode. There is the matter of the Kraken. Perhaps Sidney Powell was not speaking just figuratively about the lurking monster of the deep. The Kraken, apparently, is an actual computer system developed by the Department of Defense (DOD) to ferret out malevolent computer programs as might be deployed in cyber-warfare… or janky elections. Miz Powell has had legal consort all year with General Mike Flynn, the former chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency railroaded on a fake charge by the FBI, now pardoned, free to speak and act. Do you suppose that Gen. Flynn does not know about the agency’s cyber-warfare capabilities? Or that he does not know skilled military technicians who can spell out, say, in a court of law, exactly how the Kraken might be put to use? Or how the Kraken intersects with the two CIA proprietary election hacking programs, Hammer and Scorecard? Next, there is the matter of where these agencies stand with each other these days. It was not for nothing that the president sacked cheeky Sec’y of Defense Mark Esper and replaced him with Christopher Miller, a Special Forces warrior, lately, as Deputy Assistant Sec-Def, in charge of counterterrorism, Military Information Support Operations (MISO), Information Operations, unconventional warfare, irregular warfare, direct action, special reconnaissance, foreign internal defense, counter proliferation, sensitive special operations. Kind of sounds a little bit like exactly the skill-set you’d need to battle the rogue “resistance” operations across several US government agencies in their four-year quest to overthrow the chief executive climaxing in this election caper — for one example, the CIA. Somehow, when I think of the CIA, I think of the sinister John Brennan, architect of RussiaGate and probably also somehow behind the activation of his protégé, “whistleblower” (and CIA agent) Eric Ciaramella, the impeachment mole who was allowed to retreat back into the CIA fortress with no consequences after his seditious deed was done. Notice, Mr. Brennan has been tweeting like mad in recent days denouncing election skeptics. Is he worried about something? All of which raises the questions: what role did the agency play in the election, with its mystifying vote-tallying irregularities?  Does Mr. Brennan still wield influence in the CIA? And is the agency an enemy of the people?

 Trump lawyer: ex-election security chief Krebs should be 'taken out and shot'  A former head of US election security who said Donald Trump’s defeat by Joe Biden was not subject to voter fraud should be “taken out at dawn and shot”, a Trump campaign lawyer said. Condemnation of Joe DiGenova’s remark about Chris Krebs was swift, including calls for his disbarment and the charge that he was behaving like a “mob attorney”. Krebs was fired as head of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (Cisa) on 17 November, not long after he said the election, contrary to Trump’s claims, “was the most secure in American history”. Krebs also used Twitter to publicly debunk Trump’s conspiracy theories. DiGenova defended the president in the Russia investigation and is now involved in attempts to overturn results in battleground states. The Trump campaign has won one lawsuit – and lost 39. DiGenova made the remark about Krebs on The Howie Carr Show, a podcast shown on YouTube and the Trump-allied Newsmax TV, on Monday.

Trump campaign threatens Republican officials certifying election results - In the face of legal setbacks and state election certifications showing that President-elect Joe Biden clearly won the 2020 election, President Donald Trump is still refusing to concede. Instead he continues to stoke his fascistic supporters by issuing threats against election officials who certify the results, with one his lawyers openly threatening to kill a former Department of Homeland Security secretary on Monday. During an appearance on “The Howie Carr Show” on Monday, Trump attorney Joe diGenova, a long time Fox News contributor and former federal attorney, suggested that former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Chris Krebs, be shot for suggesting that the election was free of manipulation. Appearing on the Newsmax podcast, diGenova called Krebs a “class A moron,” adding: “He should be drawn and quartered, taken out at dawn and shot.” On Tuesday, Krebs responded to the violent comments in an NBC interview, calling diGenova’s language “dangerous” and that he would be pursuing legal action against diGenova, who has since attempted to frame his threats as “sarcastic and made in jest.” The unprecedented threats against the former government official—two weeks ago Krebs was the head of CISA before Trump fired him for fact-checking his baseless election-fraud claims—come even as Trump loyalists within the administration are starting to push back on some of his more outlandish and farcical fraud claims. In an interview with the Associated Press on Tuesday, Attorney General William Barr rejected Trump’s assertions of widespread voter fraud, stating: “To date, we have not seen fraud on a scale that could have effected a different outcome in the election.” Barr represents the highest ranking administration official to publicly dispute Trump’s claims of election fraud. Up until this point Barr has remained a steadfast supporter of Trump, even agreeing with Trump prior to the election that mail-in voter fraud was a serious issue, stating in September that “elections that have been held with mail have found substantial fraud and coercion.” However, during Tuesday’s interview Barr neglected to name any instances of mail-in voter fraud and he pushed back on claims by Trump campaign attorneys, such as QAnon supporter and Kyle Rittenhouse attorney L. Lin Wood, that computerized voting systems were responsible for changing votes, a linchpin of far-right conspiracy theories. Barr stated: “There’s been one assertion that would be systemic fraud, and that would be the claim that machines were programmed essentially to skew the election results. And the DHS and DOJ have looked into that, and so far, we haven’t seen anything to substantiate that.” In response to Barr’s comments, Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani issued a statement rebutting Barr, saying that there “hasn’t been any semblance of a Department of Justice investigation,” and that Barr’s opinion “appears to be without any knowledge or investigation of the substantial irregularities and evidence of systemic fraud.”

Trump had tense meeting with Barr after statement DOJ found no widespread election fraud: reports -- President Trump had a tense meeting with Attorney General William Barr after he said this week that the Department of Justice (DOJ) has not found any evidence of widespread election fraud, ABC News and CNN reported. Sources familiar with the matter told the networks that when Barr visited the White House on Tuesday for a pre-scheduled meeting with chief of staff Mark Meadows, Trump sought to speak with the attorney general once he was there. The meeting took place came shortly after The Associated Press published its interview with him, in which he said, “To date, we have not seen fraud on a scale that could have affected a different outcome in the election.” One source told ABC News that the Trump-Barr conversation was “intense” but would not give further details. ABC News first reported the meeting on Wednesday. Trump was asked about Barr's comments on-camera on Thursday at the White House. He pushed back on the Barr remarks, arguing the Department of Justice hasn't looked hard enough. “He hasn’t done anything, so he hasn’t looked. When he looks he’ll see the kind of evidence that right now you are seeing in the Georgia senate. They are going through hearings right now in Georgia and they are finding tremendous volumes,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “So, they haven’t looked very hard. Which is a disappointment, to be honest with you, because it's massive fraud.” So far, there has been no meaningful evidence to suggest voter fraud decided the election between Trump and President-elect Joe Biden. Barr's remarks in an interview with The Associated Press were still remarkable, however, as they represented a break between him and the president, who has refused to back down from his contention that the election was stolen from him despite a series of losses in court and rising calls from Republican officeholders to move on. Trump declined Thursday to offer a vote of confidence in Barr. “Ask me that in a number of weeks from now. They should be looking at all of this fraud,” Trump said. “This is not civil. He thought it was civil. This is not civil. This is criminal stuff. This is very bad criminal stuff.”

Ivanka Trump gives deposition in lawsuit alleging misuse of inauguration funds - Ivanka Trump, President Trump’s daughter and a senior White House adviser, was deposed on Tuesday by investigators from the Washington, D.C., attorney general's office as part of a lawsuit alleging the misuse of inauguration funds, CNN reported. The D.C. attorney general in January sued the Trump Organization and the Presidential Inauguration Committee (PIC), accusing the groups of misusing more than $1 million raised by the PIC by “grossly overpaying” to use event space at the Trump hotel in D.C. for the 2017 inauguration. Tom Barrack, the chairman of the inaugural committee, was also deposed on Nov. 17, according to court filings. The lawsuit alleges Barrack "personally managed" discussions with the Trump hotel regarding the event spaces used. According to the lawsuit, Barrack wrote Ivanka Trump in December 2016 saying he was "a bit worried about the optics of PIC paying Trump Hotel a high fee and the media making a big story out of it." Rick Gates, the former inaugural committee deputy chairman, allegedly agreed to pay $175,000 to reserve the space for four days, a decision the committee's planner, Stephanie Winston Wolkoff, reportedly advised against, stating that the asking price was at least double the market rate. According to D.C. Attorney General Karl Racine, Wolkoff "noted unease with the offer during an in-person meeting with President-elect Trump and Ivanka Trump" and told them of her concerns. Despite that, the contract was accepted.

Release of PPP loan recipients' data reveals troubling patterns--Sweeping data released by the Small Business Administration on who benefited from pandemic relief programs raises questions about the equitability and distribution of loans intended for small businesses, an initial analysis by NBC News shows.  The analysis found that tenants paying rent at properties owned by the Trump Organization as well as the Kushner Companies, owned by the family of Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, benefited financially from the program. These tenants received loans, which they then were required to put toward rent for the loans to be forgiven. The data did not show that the Trump Organization received PPP loans for its properties.  After months of litigation, the SBA released the dataset Tuesday night on every small business that received a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) or Economic Injury Disaster (EIDL) loan.  The data reveals the most complete accounting to date of the more than $700 billion in forgivable loans Congress and the Trump administration introduced in the spring for allowable expenses, including payroll, rent, utilities and mortgage interest payments. The analysis by NBC News, one of 11 newsrooms that sued for the release of data, also shows:

• Over 25 PPP loans worth more than $3.65 million were given to businesses with addresses at Trump and Kushner real estate properties, paying rent to those owners. Fifteen of the businesses self-reported that they only kept one job, zero jobs or did not report a number at all.
• The loans to businesses located at Trump and Kushner properties included a $2,164,543 loan to the Triomphe Restaurant Corp., at the Trump International Hotel & Tower in New York City. The company reported the money didn’t go to keeping any jobs. It later closed.
• A company called LB City Inc, which is located at Kushner’s Bungalow Hotel in Long Branch, New Jersey, received a loan for $505,552.50 that it used to keep 155 jobs.
• Two tenants at 725 5th Avenue, Trump Tower, received more than $100,000 and kept only three jobs.
• Four tenants at the Kushner-owned 666 5th Avenue combined received more than $204,000, and retained only six jobs.

Christopher W Smith, General Counsel with Kushner Companies, denied that the company had benefited improperly in any way from the program.  “The notion that Kushner Companies somehow improperly benefited from CARES Act Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans is completely untrue and amounts to nothing more than politically motivated nonsense.”  Kimberly Benza, a spokeswoman with the Trump Organization, wrote in an email, “The Trump Organization was specifically excluded from receiving PPP money, per Senate legislation. In other words, no Trump entity received pandemic-related loans from the government.”

Banks, borrowers bristle at SBA questionnaire on large PPP loans - Lenders and borrowers are objecting to a questionnaire many fear might lead to the Small Business Administration denying forgiveness for untold numbers of Paycheck Protection Program loans. The SBA issued guidance last week requiring lenders to send a nine-page questionnaire to small businesses that borrowed $2 million or more under the PPP. Lenders are also responsible for routing the completed surveys to the agency. Once a notification letter is received, lenders have five business days to upload the “standard loan review documentation” and notify borrowers. The SBA is giving borrowers 10 business days to complete the questionnaire and return it to their lenders. “Failure to timely respond to any SBA request may result in a delay in SBA’s remittance of the loan forgiveness amount … or in a determination that the borrower was ineligible for the loan or ineligible to receive the loan amount or loan forgiveness amount claimed,” the SBA said in a letter to lenders. Such a process will challenge borrowers and lenders that are already grappling with a resurgence of the coronavirus, industry observers said. And there is concern the SBA could use borrower responses to deny forgiveness requests, leaving lenders holding onto big loans with short maturity periods. “This becomes a staffing and logistical nightmare for all banks,” said Julio Gonzalez, CEO at Engineered Tax Services in West Palm Beach, Fla., adding that lenders should be contacting their clients to help them prepare for the questionnaire. The SBA has not released a timetable for its loan-review program. The agency did not respond to requests for comment on the questionnaire. There are concerns that certain aspects of the questionnaire could increase the risk of forgiveness being denied. The biggest worry centers on timing. The survey asks borrowers to compare their second-quarter results with those from a year earlier, using data derived after most small businesses received their PPP loans. The stimulus package that led to the PPP’s April launch required borrowers to make a good-faith certification that a loan was necessary based on the situation when they applied. There could be instances where a business, worried about its viability, requested and received a PPP loan, only to have better-than-expected financial performance after receiving the funds, industry observers said.

Extension of Fed facility could spur more PPP loan sales - The Federal Reserve’s decision to extend the life of its Paycheck Protection Program Loan Facility through March should give lenders mulling the sale of PPP portfolios more time to weigh options and — potentially — strike deals. Several banks have already sold originations under the $659 billion emergency loan program for small businesses, either to free up resources or to avoid having to navigate the complicated forgiveness process. It also expedites the influx of fee income. Nonbank Small Business Administration lenders such as The Loan Source and Fountainhead Capital have been aggressively buying those loans. Those lenders have relied on the PPPLF, which had been set to expire on Dec. 31, to provide the liquidity needed to support those efforts. Extending the life of the facility could spur more sales, industry observers said. “I know some banks are thinking about it,” said Richard Wayne, CEO at the $1.3 billion-asset Northeast Bank in Portland, Maine, which is serving as the correspondent lender to The Loan Source. “I think the fairest way to characterize [the Fed’s move] is that it’s a positive.” The facility was largely used by banks to provide added liquidity to support PPP loans, though that purpose has been on hold since the program expired on Aug. 8. For buyers like The Loan Source, the facility is a key component of financial modeling. While small businesses pay just 1% interest, lenders can finance deals with 0.35% PPPLF borrowings, providing enough leeway to eke out a profit. Volume amplifies the profit, helping explain the company’s big push to buy banks’ portfolios. The Loan Source, which has acquired about 30,000 loans totaling $4 billion, is “absolutely” on the hunt for more deals, said Luke LaHaie, chief investment officer at ACAP SME, which provides SBA-approved services to the New York lender. “The conversations really haven’t fallen off,” LaHaie said. “I kind of thought as it got later and later in the year they might, just because people would be forced to really start forgiveness. … But a lot of banks started and were like, 'Wow, this turned out to be a lot different,’ so they call us up.”

Large credit unions deepen their stake in PPP lending - Paycheck Protection Program loans made up a significant portion of the loan portfolios at four of the top credit union lenders in this area during the third quarter. These loans made up at least 15% of the portfolios at Self-Help Federal Credit Union in Durham, N.C., Notre Dame Federal Credit Union in Indiana, Vibrant Credit Union in Moline, Ill., and Greater Nevada Credit Union in Carson City, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Market Intelligence. PPP credits constituted the largest percentage of loans at the $862 million-asset Notre Dame at 24.1% followed by the $918 million-asset Vibrant at 20.2%, according to the analysis. The data looked at outstanding PPP loans for the top PPP credit union lenders in the third quarter. At the $1.5 billion-asset Self-Help, PPP loans totaled 15.5% of its overall portfolio. PPP loans were 17.2% of the loan portfolio at the $1.3 billion-asset Greater Nevada, but these credits had declined by about 18% in the third quarter from the previous one. Earlier this year, the credit union sold a significant portion of its PPP loans. It had $149 million left on its books in the third quarter, according to the S&P data. Navy Federal Credit Union in Vienna, Va., reported the largest jump in PPP loans from the second to the third quarter at 14.1%. The $131.6 billion-asset institution had $163.6 million of these loans, making up just 0.2% of its portfolio. The $4.1 billion-asset Northwest Federal Credit Union in Herndon, Va., had the second-biggest increase at 11.6% and had a total $110.7 million in PPP loans, according to the S&P data. Mountain America Federal Credit Union in Sandy, Utah, had the largest amount of PPP loans at $349.2 million, according to the analysis.

Trump banking proposal on fossil fuels sparks backlash from libertarians -- A new Trump administration proposal that could push more banks to finance fossil fuel activities is creating divisions in conservative circles as free market groups decry the move as government overreach.The proposed rule, which would put limitations on banks that try to exclude entire industries like oil and gas from financing, has garnered support from a number of Republican lawmakers who back fossil fuels while sparking criticism from libertarian-oriented organizations.Those groups argue the rule is inconsistent with free market principles and could backfire in the long run by forcing conservative bank owners to provide financing for abortion providers and other groups they don’t like. The division among conservatives has also created unlikely bedfellows with libertarians and environmentalists both opposing the proposal. Green groups say banks should be allowed to choose whether they want to provide financing for fossil fuel companies. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) put forth the rule last week, billing it as a measure to ensure fair access to financing while singling out the unwillingness of some banks to finance certain fossil activities. “It is one thing for a bank not to lend to oil companies because it lacks the expertise to value or manage the associated collateral rights; it is another for a bank to make that decision because it believes the United States should abide by the standards set in an international climate treaty,” the rule states. “Organizations involved in politically controversial but lawful businesses – whether family planning organizations, energy companies, or otherwise – are entitled to fair access to financial services under the law,” it continued. After it was published, several Capitol Hill Republicans from oil-producing states lauded the proposal. “This is particularly good news for America’s small and medium-sized energy producers, who for too long have been subject to discrimination from banks and lending facilities – under pressure from Green New Deal enthusiasts,” said Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas).

S&P Global Agrees to Buy IHS Markit for About $44 Billion – WSJ - S&P Global Inc. agreed to acquire IHS Markit Ltd. for about $44 billion, the companies said Monday, a landmark deal that would combine two of the largest providers of data to Wall Street. The all-stock deal, whose price tag includes $4.8 billion of net debt, is the largest of the year by that measure. The companies said IHS Markit shareholders will receive 0.2838 share of S&P Global stock for each IHS share under the agreement reached. S&P Global shareholders will own approximately 68% of the combined company. The transaction carries a relatively small premium of less than 5% over IHS Markit’s closing price Friday, but its investors cheered nonetheless, sending the stock up more than 7% in early trading Monday.  The deal would combine one of the oldest names in financial markets with a relative newcomer. S&P traces its roots to an 1860 compendium of information for railroad investors and is best known for its bond ratings and its iconic stock-market indexes, which serve as shorthand for the health of global markets.  IHS Markit, formed in 2016 by the merger of two smaller players, tracks millions of data points in financial markets. The London-based company owns software that big Wall Street banks use to underwrite corporate stock and bond offerings, and tracks transportation and energy data, the latter of which could pair with S&P’s commodities business, Platts.  Financial data has exploded over the past two decades as markets sped up and computer-driven investment strategies replaced human stock pickers. The success of Bloomberg LP, which launched in the 1980s offering electronic bond-price quotes, spawned a wave of competitors seeking market intelligence that could be packaged and sold to information-hungry investors.  Those players have themselves merged in recent years into a handful of giants, as data providers such as S&P Global and FactSet battle it out with big exchanges eager to monetize their pricing data to offset falling trade commissions.

Companies whose boards are entirely white men could be delisted from Nasdaq's US stock exchange under new proposals --Companies listed on Nasdaq's US stock exchange will have to have "at least two diverse directors" on their board under a new proposal,Nasdaq said on Tuesday.If companies don't meet the diversity requirements, they could be delisted.Under the proposal, the 3,249 companies listed on Nasdaq's main US stock exchange would have to have at least one female director and at least one director who identifies as an underrepresented minority or LGBTQ+, The New York Times' DealBook first reported.If they don't, they would have to publicly explain why they have not met the requirement or face being delisted, Nasdaq said.Currently, three in four companies listed on Nasdaq don't meet these diversity requirements, DealBook reported.Nasdaq defined an "underrepresented minority" as "an individual who self-identifies in one or more of the following groups: Black or African American, Hispanic or Latinx, Asian, Native American or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander or two or more races or ethnicities." "It's not like we're saying this is an optimal composition of a board, but it's a minimum level of diversity that we think every board should have," Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman told DealBook.

Regulators warn banks against using Libor in new contracts — Federal regulators urged banks on Monday to stop using the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, in their contacts and to begin transitioning away from the benchmark “as soon as practicable.” In an interagency statement, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said that “[f]ailure to prepare for disruptions to USD LIBOR, including operating with insufficiently robust fallback language, could undermine financial stability and banks’ safety and soundness.” Monday’s statement coincided with an announcement from the ICE Benchmark Administration — a subsidiary of the Intercontinental Exchange that administers Libor — that it would cease publication of its one-week and two-month Libor settings as planned on Dec. 31, 2021, but would extend the sunset dates of the remaining Libor settings to June 30, 2023. That extension, the Fed said in a separate press release also released Monday, "would allow most legacy USD Libor contracts to mature before Libor experiences disruptions." Libor had been the centerpiece of interest rate risk hedging for decades before a rate manipulation scandal broke in 2012, in which several large contributing banks were found to be routinely manipulating their rate quotes to their own ends. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York convened the Alternative Reference Rate Committee in 2014 to either fix the problems with Libor or identify a better interest rate benchmark. The ARRC settled on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, or SOFR, in 2017 as its preferred alternative, though some banks say they prefer still other interest rate benchmarks to SOFR. Regulators said in their statement that it is critical for banks to undertake the Libor transition in earnest or face enhanced supervisory scrutiny. “Given consumer protection, litigation, and reputation risks, the agencies believe entering into new contracts that use USD LIBOR as a reference rate after December 31, 2021, would create safety and soundness risks and will examine bank practices accordingly,” the regulators' statement said.

U.S. Banks Urged to Stop Using Libor on New Loans by End of 2021 – WSJ - —U.S. regulators on Monday pressed banks to stop using the London interbank offered rate on new transactions by the end of 2021 while backing a plan to allow many existing transactions to mature before Libor fully winds down in June 2023. The moves amount to the strongest and clearest guidance yet from regulators about the risks to banks for writing new contracts based on Libor, an interest-rate benchmark that global policy makers moved to scrap after concluding it was balky and prone to manipulation. Entering into new contracts using Libor after 2021 would “create safety and soundness risks,” U.S. regulators warned in a joint statement, pledging to “examine bank practices accordingly.” At the same time, U.S. officials said they welcomed a plan to offer an additional 18 months for so-called legacy contracts—the roughly $200 trillion of existing interest-rate derivatives and business loans tied to the rate—to mature before Libor fully winds down in June 2023. Previously, U.K. and U.S. policy makers have said Libor couldn’t be guaranteed after 2021. “These announcements represent critical steps in the effort to facilitate an orderly wind-down” of dollar-based Libor transactions, John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said in a statement. “They propose a clear picture of the future, to help support transition planning over the next year and beyond.” Regulators estimate that most of the legacy contracts will mature before June 2023. For the rest, legislation will be needed to switch benchmarks for contracts that lack a clear-cut fallback once Libor ceases to exist, senior Fed officials told reporters on Monday. “Today’s plan ensures that the transition away from Libor will be orderly and fair for everyone—market participants, businesses, and consumers,” Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles said in a statement.

Fed asking why banks aren't lending more — A top Federal Reserve official expressed some disappointment Wednesday about the extent to which banks have dipped into their capital and liquidity buffers to help bolster the fragile U.S. economy. Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said while "banks really have done a very good job" responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, he would have liked to see them take more advantage of capital cushions built after the 2008 financial crisis to lend during a time of stress. “All of those cushions on top of the minimums are designed to be cushions, to be used during a period like this, and for the most part, banks haven't done that,” he said during a virtual event held by the Financial Times. Though Quarles noted he "would have liked to see" more lending activity, he suggested that the lack of more aggressive action by financial institutions may be the result of regulatory incentives established by the Fed rather than decisions by the institutions themselves. “I think that's more of a systemic problem than a banking problem," he said. The Fed, along with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, issued a joint statement in March encouraging financial institutions to use their capital and liquidity reserves to help those reeling from the pandemic, noting that the buffers were designed for banks to support the economy during a downturn. “One issue that we've talked about globally, not just in the United States, is that in a situation like this, it would be good to see the banks using the buffers of both capital and liquidity that have been baked into the regulatory system to be used at a time like this,” Quarles said. But he added that it “may be as much our issue as their issue.” “We're in the process of looking internally within the regulatory system to say, what disincentives have we created in the regulatory system to the use of those buffers that perhaps we can adjust so that the buffers become more usable in a time of stress like this?” he said. Still, Quarles praised banks for setting aside loan-loss reserves and extending credit as markets seized up in March and April.

 Banks' net interest margins plunged to record lows in 3Q— Even though earnings recovered last quarter as banks eased up on loss provisions, a sharp decline in asset yields could bode trouble ahead amid continuing economic uncertainty. That was a key takeaway from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s report on the banking sector's health in the third quarter. While net income rose 173% from the prior quarter thanks mostly to a nearly 77% decline in loss provisions, a persistent drag on interest rates led to the lowest average net interest margin on record. "The low interest rate environment, flat yield curve and continued economic uncertainties related to the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic will likely continue to exert downward pressure on revenue and challenge the banking industry over the near to medium term," FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams said at the release of the Quarterly Banking Profile. "Nonetheless, the banking industry remains well capitalized with ample liquidity and has, to date, weathered the economic effects of the pandemic." The nation’s banks benefited from calmer economic seas in the third quarter of 2020. Banks posted near-normal quarterly net income of $51.2 billion in the three months ending Sept. 30. That was a notable jump from the second quarter, when surging loan-loss provisions at the outset of the pandemic led to a sharp profit drain. However, third-quarter profits remained depressed compared with a year earlier, declining by 10.7%, or $6.2 billion, from the third quarter of 2019. The report flagged a hit to net interest income resulting in part from vanishing interest rates. Quarterly net interest income fell 7.2% from a year earlier to $128.7 billion, the largest percentage decrease on record. The average net interest margin continued its descent from the previous quarter, falling to a record low of 2.68%, down 68 basis points from a year earlier. It was the largest year-over-year decline ever. "The decline in NIM was caused by a decline in asset yields (down 139 basis points) that exceeded the decline in funding costs (down 72 basis points)," the report said. About half of all banks reported lower net interest income from a year earlier. Low interest rates could remain a challenge to banks' profitability as the Federal Reserve has shown no sign of budging from low-rate policies while confronting continued economic uncertainty from the pandemic. FDIC officials said downward pressure on interest margins could persist for some time. “In this very low and flat interest rate environment, assets have been repricing more quickly than liabilities,” Diane Ellis, director of insurance and research at the FDIC, said on a call with reporters. “That’s one of the strong headwinds on earnings at this point," Ellis added.

OCC announces 3% cut to assessments in 2021 — The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency will cut assessment fees for the third time in three years, the agency announced Tuesday. Citing “increased operating efficiencies,” the OCC said that it would reduce assessment rates across the board by 3% for the 2021 calendar year, following a 10% cut in 2020 and another 10% cut in 2019. “The 2021 assessment level provides sufficient resources that enable the agency to recruit, train, and retain the talent and experience necessary to perform its important mission and continue to invest in initiatives that improve the agency’s ability to ensure the safety, soundness, and fairness of the federal banking system,” the OCC said in a press release. The 3% reduction will go into effect in the new year and apply to banks’ fees due in March and September of 2021. In addition to the annual cuts the OCC has announced over the past few years, the national bank regulator also supplied temporary relief over the summer for banks with swollen balance sheets in the early months of the pandemic, when it allowed banks to use their pre-pandemic assets to calculate supervisory fees. (That one-time change expired in October.)

Small businesses poised to hunker down in 2021- Bank of America survey - Small-business owners remain cautious about their growth prospects in 2021. A survey of 1,048 individuals, conducted by Bank of America between July 29 and Sept. 3, found that more than a third of respondents expect the national economy to improve next year and nearly 40% have the same view of their local economy. But many of the respondents have a tempered view of their own operations. About two-thirds expect revenue to be flat or down next year, and only 13% plan to be in hiring mode. Bank of America, which has been conducting the survey since 2012, said the revenue and hiring projections represent lows not seen in more than eight years. Still, the survey found some cause for hope. About 60% of participants said they expect the pandemic’s economic dislocation to last fewer than two years, and 15% said their businesses had been unaffected. A third of the small-business owners said they received loans under the Paycheck Protection Program, while two-thirds said debt forgiveness would speed recovery. Those responses were “encouraging,” Sharon Miller, Bank of America’s head of small business, said in an interview. “Entrepreneurs in general are resilient. They’ve got a very positive spirit. I think even though things are tough right now, as they look forward, they see clearer path to growth.” The Small Business Administration, which is administering the PPP along with the Treasury Department, has offered streamlined forgiveness to borrowers with loans of $50,000 or less. Groups representing lenders and borrowers continue to push for a higher threshold. Most are seeking blanket forgiveness for loans up to $150,000. While Miller stopped short of advocating a higher threshold, she said forgiveness would play a key role in the recovery. “For anyone that has gone through the PPP process, part of it is getting forgiveness,” she said. “As far as speculating on what the requirements might be, we’re going to follow them whatever they are, but forgiveness is important.” Bank of America was the leading PPP lender by number of loans, approving more than 343,000 for $25.6 billion.

BankThink Climate risk test asks banks to look too far down the road - Bankers have shown this year they could handle a broadly destructive health pandemic that blindsided the world. But they’re also preparing for another headwind: climate change. As key financial intermediaries, banks have an important role to play in managing a transition away from carbon, but there is one idea that does not appear ready for prime time: stress testing for climate change. Fortunately, U.S. banks are fully engaged on assessing and disclosing climate risks. And perhaps more importantly seeking to develop markets to assist in a transition away from carbon-intensive business. For example, the Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials recently announced a global standard to allow banks, asset managers and investors to use a common method of reporting greenhouse gas emissions tied to lending and investment portfolios. Financial innovation is also underway as 2019 had a record issuance of green bonds exceeding $250 billion, and development of green asset-backed-securities, hedging products and reforms to carbon-offset markets. In terms of risk management, banks are actively developing their climate scenario analysis capabilities to understand the risks they face across their businesses. But some regulators have suggested going further in an attempt to quantify those risks for capital purposes using government-run climate stress testing. Such testing comes with assumptions about how the climate will evolve, how governmental policy will change and how both will affect bank borrowers. Those are very difficult projections to make, and can become highly speculative over the longer term. For perspective, consider in 2008 when the United States was a major importer of oil and natural gas, it was universally projected to face higher prices for the former and a shortage of the latter. Ten years later, the U.S. was the world’s largest producer of both oil and natural gas, the largest natural gas exporter in the world and among the three largest oil exporters. Remarkably, United Kingdom and European climate stress tests envision a 30-year projection with embedded assumptions about how global energy markets will change over that period. For perspective (and humility), consider that the Federal Reserve’s financial stress tests have a time horizon of two to three years, even in an area with much richer history and data to support projections. The even greater challenge, however, is to predict how banks will change their businesses over that same timeline. The average weighted maturity of a commercial-and-industrial loan is three years, so a bank’s portfolio would turn over 10 times in a 30-year stress horizon. Of course, to the extent that climate change dims the prospects of a given industry or company, the bank would take one of those ten opportunities to reduce its exposure and lend to a firm whose prospects have brightened.

CFPB gives go-ahead to firms seeking advisory opinions - — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau finalized a policy on Monday that enables financial firms to seek formal advisory opinions from the agency in order to gain more clarity about a specific regulatory policy. “Regulatory certainty promotes compliance if the law applies and avoids unnecessary compliance costs if the law does not,” the bureau said. The CFPB’s advisory opinion policy states that any person or entity can submit requests for advisory opinions to the agency. Agency staff will review requests and determine when it is appropriate to issue a formal advisory opinion. Once advisory opinions are issued, they will be made public through the Federal Register. When determining which requests to pursue, the CFPB said it will prioritize “open questions” within its purview that can legally be addressed through an interpretive rule. The agency said it will issue an advisory opinion if it views the opinion as an “appropriate tool” for answering firms’ questions. In the final policy, the CFPB signaled that it will not issue advisory opinions on interpretive issues that are subject to ongoing investigations, enforcement actions or planned rulemaking. The formal advisory opinion policy follows years in which the agency has provided informal, nonbinding staff opinions when a firm needs clarification about a specific practice or product. The CFPB has stopped short of written advisory opinions that offer an interpretation of the law and can be extended to other firms in similar situations. The financial industry has largely supported the implementation of a formal advisory opinion policy as a means for bringing regulatory clarity, while consumer advocates have warned that a formal advisory opinion policy would roll back regulations by reinterpreting existing laws and enable firms to shirk consumer protection responsibilities. Along with the issuance of its final advisory opinion policy, the agency issued two advisory opinions. The agency issued an advisory regarding the scope to which earned wage access products can be considered extensions of credit, as well an advisory opinion that certain education loan products are subject to disclosure requirements under the Truth in Lending Act.

LendUp overcharged military borrowers, CFPB says in lawsuit - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has filed a lawsuit against the online lender LendUp for allegedly making loans to service members that exceeded a federal cap on interest rates for military borrowers. In a lawsuit filed Friday, the CFPB said that Oakland, Calif.,-based LendUp has originated more than 4,000 loans since 2016 to servicemembers that included charges, costs, and fees in its calculation of the annual percentage rate, pushing the effective rate above 36%. It also alleged that LendUp forced borrowers to submit to arbitration for any disputes, and failed to include statements about the annual percentage rate in mandatory loan disclosures. The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. The Military Lending Act requires lenders to keep that APR on loans to active-duty service members at 36% or below. It also requires certain mandatory disclosures of loan terms and prohibits clauses saying borrowers must resolve disputes through arbitration and not in the courts. The CFPB is seeking damages, redress to consumers, disgorgement of ill-gotten gains and civil money penalties, though the bureau did not quantify any of those amounts. LendUp stopped offering loans to service members in 2017, when it self-reported the issue to the CFPB, a spokesman said. LendUp said it refunded all interest and fees to service members and did not report any delinquent loans to credit bureaus. This story has been updated to include a comment from LendUp.

 Trade group seeks underlying data behind OCC's 'fair access' proposal— A trade group representing the nation’s largest banks requested data that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency used to craft its “fair access” proposal. The Bank Policy Institute submitted a Freedom of Information Act request Tuesday asking the OCC to present its rationale for the agency's plan to penalize institutions that decline to do business with politically controversial industries. The trade group claimed in a press release that the proposed rulemaking “relies on false notions about the role of larger banks in the economy.” “The OCC’s fair access proposal rests on a series of conclusory statements and assertions that are not backed up by any factual support or analysis,” John Court, general counsel at the institute, said in the press release. “We disagree with these statements and assertions, and therefore we are asking the OCC in this FOIA request to produce the data, evidence and analysis that underpins them.” The OCC’s proposed “fair access” rule, which applies only to banks with greater than $100 billion of assets, follows decisions by several large banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and TD Bank Group, to cut ties with firearm companies and energy sector firms. The OCC claimed in its proposed rule that it had found instances in which banks made decisions to cut ties “based on criteria unrelated to safe and sound banking practices,” and that in certain cases the moves appeared to stem from “personal beliefs and opinions on matters of substantive policy that are more appropriately the purview of state and Federal legislatures." Last week, the institute and other trade groups, including the American Bankers Association, Consumer Bankers Association and Financial Services Forum, requested a 30-day extension to the public comment period provided by the OCC for the rulemaking, currently set for 45 days. The OCC subsequently denied that request. OCC spokesperson Bryan Hubbard said in a statement that the agency would "look forward to the BPI’s comment on the proposed rule, and we will process the FOIA request in accordance with the law." "As has been widely reported in the press, we requested supervisory data from large banks regarding their service to a variety of industries. Their direct responses helped inform our thinking," Hubbard added.

BankThink Lend to those with low credit scores to lift downtrodden neighborhoods - America stands at the door of historic change, and banks will have a key role in this change. Faced with the triple threat of a global health pandemic, an economic crisis and a 400-year-old social justice reckoning for Black Americans, the nation will undergo a reset into 2021. To get it right, there needs to be opportunity for all. In order for this to happen, we need more than a stable government setting standards and strategies that stimulate growth. We also need changes to the American banking system. No developed country has evolved without the banking sector tied at the hip of smart growth and smart bets. This time around the U.S. will need the banking system to broaden its historic outreach. This means going beyond the traditional choices of the well-known actors, as every big company was once a small one. Because even giants like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase were once pioneered by founders who centered their businesses on funding entrepreneurial dreamers, then entered the field of competition. This highly regulated sector will need help to reimagine itself to broaden its opportunity in today’s climate, while remaining respectful of its limitations. Here’s just one proposal. America has seen several high-profile shootings and deaths involving Black Americans by police. On May 25, George Floyd, who lived in a low-credit score community, was killed by police. These devastating incidents involving Black Americans are more likely to occur in low-income, sub-700 credit score neighborhoods. The fear displayed by easily alarmed police officers and others outside these neighborhoods, including bankers, cannot continue if we truly want a strong economy that confronts, not scurries, from hardship. Addressing this gap means deploying empowered bankers who already have the ability to offer smart lending capital in conjunction with a community financial coach, aimed at 500+ credit score communities for new homeowners, small businesses and entrepreneurs to uplift struggling neighborhoods and boost jobs. To quote my friend and CNN contributor, Van Jones, “nothing stops a bullet like a job.” And, typically, 700 credit score communities don’t riot. It is a fact that underserved communities in the 400-500 credit score range, regardless of race, pose a credit lending risk to banks. But it is also true that some of our greatest strivers, dreamers and entrepreneurs in the making came from these same communities. And there are already developments underway, including partnerships between banks and credible nonprofits, to help boost the scores of people who need it the most.

Are nonbanks likelier to lend to Black, Latino homebuyers? - As policymakers and consumer advocates seeks ways to narrow the racial gap in homeownership, a new report suggests nonbanks are doing a better job of lending to minorities than banks in the largest state. The findings by the Greenlining Institute, a nonprofit based in Oakland, Calif., show the eight largest nonbank mortgage lenders in California lent more of their respective portfolios to Black and Hispanic homebuyers than top bank lenders in the state. Independent mortgage bankers say the main reason for the difference in lending to minorities is that nonbanks are focused solely on mortgage lending rather than selling a wide array of products to the same customers. “We are in business to make loans, so if a borrower qualifies for a loan, we’ll make it,” said Scott Olson, executive director of Community Home Lenders Association, a trade group of independent mortgage bankers. “Banks are in business to make profits based on a wide range of products. Making a small profit on a loan may not help them in their business plan because they want to cross-sell them insurance and securities and a lot of other products.” Greenlining analyzed loans made by the top 15 mortgage lenders in six metropolitan regions in California: Sacramento, San Francisco, Oakland, Fresno, Los Angeles and San Diego. The analysis of 2019 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data found that Black, Latino and Native American borrowers received far fewer loans overall than white borrowers. Loans to Black, Latino and Native American borrowers totaled 97,420, compared with 157,696 for white borrowers. But when comparing the top eight nonbanks, Greenlining found that just over 18% of their mortgage portfolios on average were made up of loans to Latino borrowers. That figure was just over 8% for the top seven banks. On average, just over 3% of the nonbanks' portfolios were loans to Black borrowers, compared with 1.1% for the average of the bank portfolios. "In several regional markets, non-bank lenders make twice as many home purchase loans to low-income borrowers as mainstream banks," the report said. The new data comes as some expect access to homeownership may attract more attention from the incoming Biden administration. A national focus on racial inequality has heightened the focus on anti-redlining just as regulators take on a sweeping overhaul of the Community Reinvestment Act. Community and advocacy groups have long wanted to include nonbanks under the CRA. The Greenlining data suggests there is evidence to bolster the case that regulators should focus more attention on nonbanks including the types of loan products they originate and outreach being made to low and moderate-income communities."In California, nine of the top 15 home purchase lenders are unregulated non-bank lenders that do not offer traditional banking services, operate largely online, and are not subject to the Community Reinvestment Act, so their lending is not regularly assessed to determine whether they meet the credit and borrowing needs of the communities where they operate," the report said.

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in October -Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 3.05% in October, from 3.20% in September. The serious delinquency rate is up from 0.67% in October 2019. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.  By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 5.82% are seriously delinquent (up from 5.81% in September). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (3% of portfolio), 9.84% are seriously delinquent (unchanged from 9.84%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (95% of portfolio), 2.57% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.74%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years. Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus. This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble.   Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed. Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 5.54%" - Note: This is as of November 22nd. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 5.54% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased from 5.48% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.54% as of November 22, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.8 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.  ..  “For the second week in a row, the share of loans in forbearance has increased, driven by a rise in new forbearance requests and another slowdown in the pace of forbearance exits. The increase was across all loan and servicer types. Even GSE loans, which had previously declined for 24 straight weeks, saw an increase last week,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Additionally concerning, there was an increase in forbearance re-entries, as borrowers who had previously exited sought relief again. The increase in new forbearance requests may be the result of additional outreach to homeowners who had previously not taken advantage of forbearance opportunities. However, the slowing rate of exits to a new survey low further highlights that borrowers still in forbearance are increasingly challenged by the renewed restrictions on economic activity to contain the surge in COVID-19 cases.”  Added Fratantoni, “Recent housing market data remain quite strong and we expect that the market is well positioned for additional growth next year, but these data show that additional support is likely needed to get through this winter.”  .. By stage, 20.34% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 77.42% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 2.24% are forbearance re-entries.  This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months.  The MBA notes: "Weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased to 0.11 percent from 0.09 percent the previous week."

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 27, 2020. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 102 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 28 percent compared with the previous week and was 28 percent higher than the same week one year ago.After adjusting for the Thanksgiving holiday, mortgage applications were mixed, with a jump in purchase applications and a decline in refinances. Purchase activity continued to show impressive year-over-year gains, with both the conventional and government segments of the market posting another week of growth,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase loan amounts continue to be significantly higher than their average over the past decade and hit $375,000 last week, the largest since the inception of MBA’s survey in 1990. Housing demand remains strong, and despite extremely tight inventory and rising prices, home sales are running at their strongest pace in over a decade.”Added Kan, “The sustained period of low mortgage rates continues to spark borrower demand, and the mortgage industry is poised for its strongest year in originations since 2003. The ongoing refinance wave has been beneficial to homeowners looking to lower their monthly payments during these challenging economic times brought forth by the pandemic.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) remained unchanged at 2.92 percent, with points decreasing to 0.31 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "Taking Off in Earnest" --The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released last week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: September Case-Shiller Results & October Forecast: Taking Off in Earnest The weather cooled, but the pace of home price appreciation remained red hot into September.The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 7% year-over-year in September. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 6.2% and 6.6% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was faster in August than in July in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10- and 20-city indices were each up by more than 1% (1.2% and 1.3%, respectively), and the national index was up 1.4% from August....With mortgage rates staying near their lowest levels ever, buyers remain eager to grab the relatively few homes that are listed on the market, and do so quickly – homes went under contract two weeks faster in September than they did a year earlier. Home prices are normally sticky, meaning that they often take a while to respond to market shifts. These elevated levels of market competition have been placing upward pressure on prices for months, but home prices have just recently began to take off in earnest. Some measures show home prices now growing at a faster pace than they ever have. While the worsening spread of COVID-19, and the economic uncertainty that accompanies it, do pose some potential risks to the booming housing market, it appears unlikely that this remarkable growth in home prices will abate in the coming months.Annual growth in [October] as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, December 29.The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 7.7% in October, up from 7.0% in September.The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 7.3% YoY in October from 6.6% in September, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 6.8% YoY compared to 6.2% YoY in September.

If CPI Measured Actual House Prices, Inflation Would Be 3% Right Now - "Actual" consumer price inflation is rising during the recession. That runs counter to the normal recessionary pattern when the combination of weak demand and excess capacity works to lessen inflationary pressures. The main source of faster consumer price inflation is centered in the housing market. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index posted a 7% increase the last year, more than twice the gain of one-year ago. The sharp acceleration in house price inflation represents the fastest increase since 2014 and runs counter to the patterns of the past two recessions. During the 2001 recession house price inflation slowed by one-third, while in the Great Financial Recession housing prices posted their largest decline in the post-war period, falling over 12% nationwide. The consumer price index (CPI) does not show in house price inflation because it uses a non-market rent index to capture the trends in housing inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that the non-market rent index has increased 2.5% in the past 12 months, or 450 basis points below the rise in house prices. If actual house prices were used in place of rents core CPI would have registered a 3% gain in the past year, nearly twice the reported gain of 1.6%. If aggregate price measures did not exist house prices would be one of the most important measures to gauge inflation and the proper setting of official interest rates. That’s because house price cycles include easy credit/financial conditions, excess demand, and inflation expectations, three key ingredients of inflation cycles. Rising consumer price inflation is added to the list of unique features of the 2020 recession. Others include an increase in corporate debt levels instead of debt-liquidation and rising equity prices instead of share price declines. If the 2020 recession has economic and financial features that normally appear during economic recovery what does that imply for the next growth cycle? The debt overhang at the corporate and federal debt should impede the next growth cycle. And if the cyclical rise in housing demand is occurring in recession it can't be repeated during recovery. The next economic cycle will be filled with unique tipping points, and no one should assume that policymakers can control or offset them.

Over Half Young American Adults Now Live With Their Parents - In the last few decades, young adults have faced harsh economic realities - from the financial crisis in 2008 to this year’s global pandemic, both triggering catastrophic losses in jobs and financial stability. And while the widespread effects of COVID-19 have yet to be fully captured, Visual Capitalist's Aran Ali notes that young adults are already now living with their parents to a greater degree than witnessed in 120 years - surpassing even the Depression-era generation. Young adults today are categorized as either late Millennials and Gen-Zers. For them, COVID-19 has just been another addition to the list of financial hardships they’ve been up against, such as a precarious job market and the rising cost of living. There are a few possible factors that could explain the increase in young adults living with their parents.

• 1. The lackluster job market. The barista or server with multiple degrees has become a common portrayal of the struggling millennial. Despite the less than rosy outcomes, it has not been for want of trying. Younger people today are actually the most educated generation in history. Unfortunately, a degree does not map out a path to success the way it did for prior generations.
• 2. Tying the knot later. Today, people get married nearly a decade later than prior historical averages, and many young adults are opting to stay with their parents until they tie the knot. It’s also worth noting that as time goes on, young adults are getting married at lower rates than in the past.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 1.1% in October - From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dip 1.1% in October: Pending home sales fell slightly in October, according to the National Association of Realtors. Contract activity was mixed among the four major U.S. regions, with the only positive month-over-month growth happening in the South, although each region achieved year-over-year gains in pending home sales transactions. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 1.1% to 128.9 in October, the second straight month of decline. Year-over-year, contract signings rose 20.2%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. ... The Northeast PHSI slid 5.9% to 112.3 in October, a 18.5% increase from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 0.7% to 119.6 last month, up 19.6% from October 2019. Pending home sales in the South increased 0.1% to an index of 151.1 in October, up 21.0% from October 2019. The index in the West remained the same in October, at 116.8, which is up 20.8% from a year ago. This was below expectations for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in November and December.

Construction Spending Increased 1.3% in October - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in June: Construction spending during October 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,438.5 billion, 1.3 percent above the revised September estimate of $1,420.4 billion. The October figure is 3.7 percent above the October 2019 estimate of $1,386.8 billion.Both private and public spending increased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,093.7 billion, 1.4 percent above the revised September estimate of $1,078.9 billion. ... In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $344.8 billion, 1.0 percent above the revised September estimate of $341.4 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.Residential spending is 6% below the previous peak.Non-residential spending is 10% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently.Public construction spending is 6% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 32% above the austerity low in February 2014.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 14.5%. Non-residential spending is down 8.2% year-over-year. Public spending is up 3.7% year-over-year.Construction was considered an essential service in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors, but it seems likely that non-residential, and public spending (depending on disaster relief), will be under pressure. For example, lodging is down 23% YoY, multi-retail down 19% YoY, and office down 8% YoY. This was above consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase in spending, and construction spending for the previous two months was revised up (mostly private residential).

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 28.5% Year-over-year - From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 28 November: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy fell to its lowest level since late May, according to the latest data from STR through 28 November. 22-28 November 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
• Occupancy: 36.2% (-28.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$92.49 (-17.8%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$33.49 (-41.2%)
TSA checkpoint counts increased sharply with more than 6 million passengers during both the week before and of Thanksgiving. However, that increased air travel volume did not translate to more hotel rooms sold as weekly demand (13.2 million) and occupancy fell to their lowest levels since late May. This would indicate that a bulk of travelers opted to stay with family during the holiday.  Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate - see graph below - we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-y ear change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020: This suggests little improvement over the last 11 weeks.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.  The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020). Seasonally we'd expect the occupancy rate to decline into the new year.  Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

 NYC Landlords Suing Pandemic-Slammed Small Businesses by the Hundreds for Missed Rent --- Before the spring, Barbara made a living selling outfits to Manhattan private school students through her uniform store, in business since 1972. Typically, she would order the bulk of her inventory in January for sale in the spring. But this year her usually busiest months corresponded with the worst of the pandemic: March, April and May. “I had to be closed down,” she said as her voice broke over the phone. “I get emotional.” Now, with many students in remote learning, sales are way down. The inventory Barbara ordered in the winter sits in a space she moved to in November because she couldn’t pay the rent on the company’s previous location on Staten Island’s South Shore. As she contends with a dried-up market, she faces another financial challenge: Her previous landlord recently sued her company for unpaid rent, alleging the business owes more than $25,000, court papers show. When THE CITY alerted her about the lawsuit — the first she had heard of it — she said she simply can’t afford to pay the debt. “I have nothing. I haven’t paid my [home] mortgage in six months. How am I gonna deal with it?” she said. “You know, it just makes a hard life harder. That’s all.” She is not alone. In the COVID-19 pandemic, hundreds of city business owners — and, sometimes, their commercial landlords who are sued proactively by struggling tenants — face lawsuits over rent owed by proprietors whose income has all but vanished. In New York, the already backlogged civil court system is being further clogged by the suits. Some of the larger ones — with millions of dollars on the line — get headlines, such as with the battles variously pitting landlords against The Gap, Planet Hollywood in Times Square and the NBA Store on Fifth Avenue. But every day, cases quietly appear on the city docket for rent owed by much smaller fish. In DUMBO, a landlord alleged that a Mexican restaurant that has been in the neighborhood for 20 years owes $163,000 in back rent. In Midtown, a salon for eyelash extensions on West 43rd Street is behind $24,000, its landlord claimed. Pedro’s Bar on Jay Street in DUMBO, Nov. 24, 2020. Ben Fractenberg/THE CITY A sushi restaurant at a hotel on Bryant Park owes $180,000, the property owner says. In Clinton Hill, a Middle Eastern café is accused of being $25,600 in arrears. “Everyone is dealing with this,” said Janice Mac Avoy, co-head of the real estate litigation division at the law firm Fried Frank. A year ago, Mac Avoy almost never saw this type of suit. “Now, there are hundreds,” she said. “It’s changed dramatically.”

  Coin shortage persists ahead of holiday shopping rush - Coins have been creeping back into circulation after a shortage earlier in the year — brought on by the coronavirus pandemic — left banks and retailers scrambling to make change for customers. But while the situation is improving, some members of a federal task force that assembled this summer to get coins back into empty tills are worried about a persistent lack of supply as the busy holiday shopping season kicks into gear. “We do feel it has improved since the task force has started,” said Sherri Reagan, the chief financial officer of North Salem State Bank and a member of the working group. “What we don’t know is what the coin circulation will be during the holiday shopping season. That’s a real concern.” The task force includes representatives from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Mint, the armored car industry, retailers like Walmart and banks of various sizes from JPMorgan Chase to the $480 million-asset North Salem State Bank in Indiana. A Fed spokesperson said the coin circulation issue is improving but not yet fully resolved. A stream of steady deposits from coin gatherers and increased production from the U.S. Mint has allowed the central bank to remove caps on the amount of pennies and quarters financial institutions can order, the spokesperson said. The Fed has also raised limits on the amount of nickels and dimes that can be ordered, but a cap does remain for these coins. The U.S. economy has an estimated $40 billion of coins in supply. A healthy circulation depends on a cycle of commerce that had largely gone unnoticed until the pandemic. The U.S. Mint controls production, and the Fed controls distribution to banks. Banks keep coins on deposit at the Fed and can order more as needed to distribute to businesses that give out change on transactions at cash registers.

Black Friday Foot Traffic Down More Than 52% -- Summary: While online sales exploded during the Thanksgiving weekend, trips inside brick-and-mortar stores on Black Friday dropped off significantly, as many analysts anticipated.According to data from Sensormatic Solutions, shopper visits to physical stores on Black Friday fell 52.1% from last year. Online sales, meanwhile, hit a new record with $9 billion, up 21.6% over 2019, Adobe Analytics said. With many retailers opting to stay closed on Thanksgiving, physical traffic on the holiday fell nearly 95%, according to Sensormatic. With COVID-19 cases hitting new highs, it comes as little surprise that many shoppers opted to stay away from physical stores this year. That said, the differences between Black Friday 2020 and those that preceded it were stark. "Our traditional store checks over the holiday weekend were like none other we've ever experienced in our lifetime — no hustle and bustle, no lines at the register," said MKM Partners Managing Director Roxanne Meyer in an emailed research note.Retailers have anticipated and prepared for that, even nudged consumers into changing up their holiday shopping plans to keep them from packing into stores. Major players like Walmart and Target have been spreading Black Friday-like discounts through the month of November and encouraging online purchases and curbside pickup. Many also followed Amazon's lead by launching online sales events in October, which pulled holiday purchases into the month and heralded the beginning of the holiday shopping spree. Black Friday still had a major impact. Sales in the U.S. were up 177% Friday against their October average, according to Criteo data emailed to Retail Dive. By category, fashion was up 240%, consumer electronics were up 359% and home goods were up 148%.

Online Spending Hits Record On Cyber Monday - Earlier this week we wrote about online shopping being the big winner of this year's Black Friday. Online spending on Black Friday jumped by 21.6% to a record $9 billion, according to data from Adobe Analytics, which analyzed transactions from 80 of the top 100 U.S. online retailers. The total makes this year's Black Friday the second-largest single day for online shopping in U.S. history behind last year's Cyber Monday, when shoppers spent $9.4 billion. With this year's Cyber Monday now in the books, it officially broke last year's $9.4 billion as consumers spent a record $10.8 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. Despite jumping more than 15% from last year and setting a new record, the total fell short of Adobe's original estimate of $12.7 billion. Adobe recently cut its estimate for online spending this holiday season to $184 billion from its original estimate of $189 billion. The lowered estimate still marks a 30% increase from last year's total. "Throughout the remainder of the holiday season, we expect to see record sales continue and curbside pickup to gain even more momentum as shoppers avoid crowds and potential shipping delays," Adobe Digital Insights director Taylor Schreiner said. Similar to their findings on Black Friday, Adobe found that consumers increasingly shopped on their smartphones as 37% of Cyber Monday's sales came from mobile devices. Adobe also found that 25% of the day's total sales came in the last few hours as consumers on the west coast spent $2.7 billion from 7 PM to 11 PM. Meanwhile, Amazon said yesterday that the 2020 holiday season is their "biggest yet" as independent businesses tallied $4.8 billion in sales between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, marking a 60% increase from last year. Amazon also disclosed an astonishing 71,000 small- and medium-sized businesses across the world have already surpassed $100,000 in sales so far this holiday season. However, Amazon did not share any specific sales figures for either Black Friday or Cyber Monday for the company as a whole. "To give customers more time to save and more flexibility during an unusual time, Amazon kicked off the holiday season earlier than ever, just after Prime Day, with deep discounts and deals starting in October," Amazon said. "And through Cyber Monday, 2020 has been the largest holiday shopping season so far in our company's history thanks to customers around the world." With record online spending on this year's Black Friday and Cyber Monday, retailers will now watch closely to see if consumers can keep it up or are tapped out.

No Exceptions - UPS Places Shipping Limits On Major Retailers Amid Online Sales Boom - An internal memo reviewed by WSJ and confirmed by United Parcel Service workers outlines how the package delivery company imposed shipping restrictions on major retailers on Cyber Monday as the unprecedented pandemic fueled online shopping season stretched delivery networks thin. The memo informs delivery drivers that on Cyber Monday, they were not to pick up any packages from six major retailers, including L.L. Bean Inc., Hot Topic Inc., New Egg Inc., and Macy's. WSJ sources confirmed the UPS memo was authentic. The memo said: "No exceptions." The temporarily throttling of package intake comes as many retailers rely entirely on e-commerce as the shift in retail to online has mainly resulted from the virus pandemic reducing foot traffic in brick-in-mortar-stores. The National Retail Federation said online shopping soared 44% over the five days, including Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Shipping consultants told WSJ that limits were imposed on retailers if they surpassed their allowance for packages. However, UPS had more than eight months to prepare for this year-end surge. Surely they saw it coming that would warrant the delivery giant to expand capacity before the second wave of the pandemic and holiday shopping season. The limits imposed by UPS outlines how the influx in packages may have stressed its shipping network.

November Vehicles Sales decreased to 15.55 Million SAAR --The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for November this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 15.55 million SAAR in November 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 4.5% from the October sales rate, and down 8.4% from November 2019. This was below the consensus estimate of 16.2 million SAAR. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for November (red).The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April was the worst month. Since April, sales have increased, but are still down 8.4% from last year.  The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 15.55 million SAAR. In 2019, there were 15.92 million light vehicle sales through November.  In 2020, there have been 13.20 million sales.  That puts sales-to-date down 17.1% in 2020 compared to the same period in 2019.

October Trade Deficit at $63.1B, 1.7% More Than September -The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions that go back several months. This report details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in October 2020 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $62.1 billion in September (revised) to $63.1 billion in October, as imports increased more than exports. The previously published September deficit was $63.9 billion. The goods deficit increased $0.6 billion in October to $81.4 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.4 billion in October to $18.3 billion.Exports and imports in October reflect both the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the continued recovery from the sharp declines earlier this year. The full economic effects of the pandemic cannot be quantified in the trade statistics because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis continue to monitor data quality and have determined estimates in this release meet publication standards. For more information, see the frequently asked questions on goods from the Census Bureau and on services from BEA.Today's headline number of -63.12B was less negative than the Investing.com forecast of -64.80B.Here is a snapshot that gives a better sense of the extreme volatility of this indicator.

Trade Deficit Increased to $63.1 Billion in October -- From the Department of Commerce reported:  The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $63.1 billion in October, up $1.0 billion from $62.1 billion in September, revised. October exports were $182.0 billion, $4.0 billion more than September exports. October imports were $245.1 billion, $5.0 billion more than September imports.   Both exports and imports increased in October. Exports are down 13.5% compared to October 2019; imports are down 3.3% compared to October 2019. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports), The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that the U.S. exported a slight net positive petroleum products in recent months. Oil imports averaged $36.23 per barrel in October, down from $37.59 per barrel in September, and down from $52.02 in October 2019. The trade deficit with China decreased to $30.1 billion in October, from $31.3 billion in October 2019.

ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 57.5 in November --The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in November. The PMI was at 57.5% in November, down from 59.3% in October. The employment index was at 48.4%, down from 53.2% last month, and the new orders index was at 65.1%, down from 67.9%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 57.5%; November 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®:"The November Manufacturing PMI® registered 57.5 percent, down 1.8 percentage points from the October reading of 59.3 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the seventh month in a row after a contraction in April, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index registered 65.1 percent, down 2.8 percentage points from the October reading of 67.9 percent. The Production Index registered 60.8 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points compared to the October reading of 63 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 56.9 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher compared to the October reading of 55.7 percent. The Employment Index returned to contraction territory at 48.4 percent, 4.8 percentage points down from the October reading of 53.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.7 percent, up 1.2 percentage points from the October figure of 60.5 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.2 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the October reading of 51.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 65.4 percent, down 0.1 percentage point compared to the October reading of 65.5 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 57.8 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to the October reading of 55.7 percent. The Imports Index registered 55.1 percent, a 3-percentage point decrease from the October reading of 58.1 percent."

November data starts out strong with a very positive ISM manufacturing index - The first November data point, the ISM manufacturing index, was reported this morning, and while it declined from last month, it remained very strongly positive. The overall index declined from 59.3 to 57.5, and the more forward-looking new orders index declined from 67.9 to 65.1:  Since any reading above 50, however, indicates expansion, these were positive readings. The overall index is at levels equivalent to where it was during the strongest parts of the last decade’s expansion, and this month, like 3 of the last 4 months, the new orders component is equal to its strongest levels of the past 16 years.  Manufacturing has been very strong in the last half of this year, and as a short leading indicator, the ISM manufacturing index suggests that strength is going to continue in the first part of next year as well.  In general both the short and long leading indicators are very positive for 2021.

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Moderates" in November - From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion ModeratesTexas factory activity expanded in November for the sixth consecutive month, though at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 25.5 to 7.2, indicating a deceleration in output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also point to slower growth this month, as the indexes remained positive but came in below last month’s readings. The new orders index dropped 13 points to 7.2, and the growth rate of orders index fell five points to 9.7. The capacity utilization index dropped from 23.0 to 6.9, and the shipments index fell from 21.9 to 13.7. Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to improve in November, though the indexes retreated from their October levels. The general business activity index remained positive but fell from 19.8 to 12.0. Similarly, the company outlook index fell from 17.8 to 11.0. Uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks continued to rise, though the index declined from 11.0 to 7.2.  Labor market measures indicated stronger growth in employment and work hours. The employment index ticked up three points to 11.7, suggesting a slight pickup in hiring.Twenty-five percent of firms noted net hiring, while 13 percent noted net layoffs. The hours worked index moved up from 3.7 to 9.7.  This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for November.  Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

November Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP. The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for November is 14.1, down from the previous month's 21. It is well below its all-time high of 25.1, set in May 2004.  Here is the same chart including the average of the five. Readers will notice the range in expansion and contraction between all regions.  For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.

Chicago PMI Eased in November - The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, is similar to the national ISM Manufacturing indicator but at a regional level and is seen by many as an indicator of the larger US economy. It is a composite diffusion indicator, made up of production, new orders, order backlogs, employment, and supplier deliveries compiled through surveys. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, fell to 58.2 in November from 61.1 in October, which is in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.Here is an excerpt from the press release:The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, slipped to 58.2 in November. The index now stands at the lowest level since August but remains in expansion.Among the main five indicators, New Orders and Production posted the only declines, while Supplier Deliveries saw the largest gain. [Source] Let's take a look at the Chicago PMI since its inception.

 ISM Services Index Decreased to 55.9% in November - The November ISM Services index was at 55.9%, down from 56.6% last month. The employment index increased to 51.5%, from 50.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI™ at 55.9%; November 2020 Services ISM® Report On Business®: "The Services PMI™ registered 55.9 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the October reading of 56.6 percent. This reading represents a sixth straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 130 months. This graph shows the ISM services index (started in January 2008) and the ISM services employment diffusion index. This was close to the consensus forecast, and the employment index was barely above 50.

November Markit Services PMI: "Sharpest increase in output/new biz since March 2015" The November US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 58.4 percent, up 1.5 from the final October estimate of 56.9. The Investing.com consensus was for 57.7 percent. Here is the opening from the latest press release:Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:“November saw US business activity surge higher at a rate not seen since early-2015 as companies enjoyed sharply rising demand for goods and services. Confidence has picked up considerably, with encouraging news on vaccines coinciding with reduced political uncertainty following the presidential election, hopes of greater stimulus spending and fresh stock market highs. Optimism about the future is running at its highest since early-2014.“The recent improvement in demand and the brightening outlook encouraged firms to take on extra staff at a rate not previously seen since the survey began in 2009, underscoring how increased optimism is fuelling investment and expansion.“Pricing power is also being regained, with firms pushing up average charges for goods and services at a rate not seen for at least a decade, boding well for stronger profits growth.” [Press Release]  Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.

 Jobless claims have best pandemic week yet -  This week’s new jobless claims decreased close to their pandemic lows, while the unadjusted and 4 week averages did make new pandemic lows, as did continuing claims. On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims fell by 122,453 to 713,824. Seasonally adjusted claims declined by 75,000 to 712,000, still 1,000 higher than their pandemic lows three weeks ago. The 4 week moving average also fell by 11,250 to 739,500. Here is the close up since the end of July (for comparison, remember that these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in early April):   Continuing claims historically lag initial claims typically by a few weeks to several months. On an unadjusted basis, they declined by 690,170 to 5,240,575. With seasonal adjustment they declined by 569,000 to 5,520,000, both new pandemic lows: Seasonally adjusted new jobless claims have declined almost 90% from their March and April pandemic high, and continuing claims have declined over 75% from their April high: Initial claims remain about 50,000 higher than their worst levels of the Great Recession, while continuing claims have actually dipped about 1 million less than their worst levels. Last week I wrote that “It appears increasingly likely that two weeks ago will mark an interim low, due to the pandemic spiraling out of control again in most of the country.”  This week’s data shows that to be incorrect, as all measures made new pandemic lows, except for seasonally adjusted initial claims, which missed by 1,000.  Still, as the below graph of the YoY% change in initial claims shows, on a YoY basis, progress stopped in November:   We’re likely to get another positive number in tomorrow’s November jobs report, but my guess is it will be the weakest reading of the past 6 months. I still suspect the near term trajectory in new jobless claims is going to be poorer.

ADP: Private Employment increased 307,000 in November --From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 307,000 jobs from October to November according to the Novembe ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Job growth remained positive across all industries and sizes.” This was below the consensus forecast for 420 thousand private sector jobs added in the ADP report. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 500 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in November. Of course the ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.

A Closer Look at Today's ADP Employment Report - In this morning's ADP employment report we got the November estimate of 307K nonfarm private employment jobs gained from ADP, a decrease over Octob'ers revised 404K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in the ADP headline number since the company's earliest published data in April 2002. This is quite a volatile series, so we've plotted the monthly data points as dots along with a six-month moving average, which gives us a clearer sense of the trend.As we see in the chart above, the trend peaked 20 months before the last recession and went negative around the time that the NBER subsequently declared as the recession start. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought employment numbers down to levels we have never seen this century. ADP also gives us a breakdown of Total Nonfarm Private Employment into two categories: Goods Producing and Services. Here is the same chart style illustrating the two. The US is predominantly a services economy, so it comes as no surprise that Services employment has shown stronger jobs growth. The trend in Goods Producing jobs went negative over a year before the last recession. It makes sense that service-producing employment has plummeted during the pandemic for a couple of reasons - our economy is mostly supported by service-producing jobs; and during the pandemic those same services are being brought to a halt. For a sense of the relative size of Services over Goods Producing employment, the next chart shows the percentage of Services Jobs across the entire series. The latest data point is below the record high. There are a number of factors behind this trend. In addition to our increasing dependence on Services, Goods Production employment continues to be impacted by automation and offshoring. For a better sense of the components of the two Goods Producing and Service Providing cohorts, here is a snapshot of the five select industries tracked by ADP. The two things to note here are the relative sizes of the industries and the relative trends. Note that Construction and Manufacturing are Production industries whereas the other three are Service Providing. Another view of the relative trends of the five select industries is an overlay of the year-over-year comparison. For a longer-term perspective on the Goods Producing and Service Providing employment, see our monthly analysis, Secular Trends in Employment: Goods Producing Versus Services Providing, which is based on data from the Department of Labor's monthly jobs report reaching back to 1939.

November Employment Report: 245 Thousand Jobs Added, 6.7% Unemployment Rate -- From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. However, the pace of improvement in the labor market has moderated in recent months. In November, notable job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and health care. Employment declined in government and retail trade. ... In November, the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent. The rate is down by 8.0 percentage points from its recent high in April but is 3.2 percentage points higher than it was in February. The number of unemployed persons, at 10.7 million, continued to trend down in November but is 4.9 million higher than in February. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up by 39,000, from +672,000 to +711,000, and the change for October was revised down by 28,000, from +638,000 to +610,000. With these revisions, employment in September and October combined was 11,000 more than previously reported.  The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In November, the year-over-year change was negative 9.19 million jobs. Total payrolls increased by 245 thousand in November. Private payrolls increased by 344 thousand. Payrolls for September and October were revised up 11 thousand combined. The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and is still worse than the worst of the "Great Recession". The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 61.5% in November. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 57.3% (black line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased in November to 6.7%. This was well below consensus expectations, however September and October were revised up by 15,000 combined.

Economy Adds 245,000 Jobs in November, Unemployment Falls to 6.7 Percent – Dean Baker - Contrary to normal patterns, the workweek has actually gotten longer in the pandemic recession. The rebound slowed sharply in November, with the economy adding just 245,000 jobs. This would ordinarily be a very respectable gain, but with the economy still down almost 10 million jobs from the pre-pandemic level, it is not a pace that gets us back to full employment any time soon. If we need 100,000 jobs a month to keep pace with the growth of the labor market, it would take us more than five and half years to get back to full employment at this rate of job growth. The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 6.7 percent in November, however this was entirely due to people leaving the labor force, as employment dropped slightly. The employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) fell by 0.1 percentage points to 57.3 percent. The decline was entirely among men, who had a drop in labor force participation rates of 0.4 percentage points. Employment rates for men have actually fallen somewhat more over the course of the downturn than for women, with the EPOP for prime age men down by 4.8 percentage points from their year-ago level, compared to a 3.9 percentage points drop among women. The unemployment rate for Black workers fell by 0.5 percentage points to 10.3 percent, while the EPOP rose by 0.4 percentage points to 54.1 percent. The unemployment rate is 4.7 percentage points higher and the EPOP is 4.7 percentage points lower than the year-ago level. The unemployment rate for Asian Americans fell by 0.9 percentage points, but at 6.7 percent, it is still 0.8 percentage points above the rate for whites, reversing the normal pattern. Voluntary part-time employment fell by 786,000 in November. It is now 13.5 percent below year-ago levels. This reflects in large part the sharp hit to restaurants and hotels, sectors that employ large numbers of part-time workers. However, we are also seeing the length of the average workweek increase across sectors. For example, in retail trade the average workweek is 2.0 percent longer than it was a year ago; in education and health services it is 1.2 percent longer. This reverses the normal pattern in recessions as employers typically cut hours as a way to adjust to reduced labor demand rather than laying off workers. In 2009, the length of the average workweek was 1.5 percent shorter (0.5 hours) than it had been in 2007. Consistent with this pattern of rising hours, we again saw a large increase in the number of long-term unemployed (more than 26 weeks) to 3,941,000, the highest level since November of 2013. This indicates that many of the people who lost their jobs during the spring shutdown still have not gotten them back. [Graph] The share of unemployment due to voluntary quits dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 6.7 percent, while this is above the lows hit in the shutdown months, the worst figure in the Great Recession was 5.5 percent. By contrast, 25.9 percent of the unemployed report being on temporary layoffs, a higher level than any pre-pandemic figure….

US adds 245,000 jobs as virus threatens the economy’s slow comeback — U.S. employers added a modest 245,000 jobs in November, as companies scaled back their hiring as the viral pandemic accelerates across the country. This marks the fewest added jobs since April and the fifth straight monthly slowdown.November’s job gain was down from 610,000 in October. Long-term unemployed, those jobless for more than 27 weeks, rose by 385,000 to 3.9 million.The report Friday from the Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell to 6.7 from 6.9% in October. Since April, the jobless rate has decreased from a peak of 14.7%.The report said unemployment rates declined for adult women in November whereas other major worker groups showed little or no change.U.S. deaths from the coronavirus topped 3,100 Wednesday, a new daily high, with more than 100,000 Americans hospitalized with the disease, also a record, and new confirmed daily cases topping 200,000. In the past month, many states have imposed new restrictions on businesses, and health officials are urging Americans to avoid all but essential travel.Many economists, along with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, have called on Congress to approveanother stimulus package to carry the economy into the spring, until a vaccine is widely distributed that would allow economic activity to start returning to normal.There are signs that the economic recovery is stumbling. Consumer spending grew in October at the slowest pace in six months. Seated diners at restaurants are declining again, according to data from the reservations website OpenTable. And a Fed report on business conditions found that growth cooled last month in several Midwest regions and in the Fed’s Philadelphia district. David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide, said he thinks the worst consequences of the pandemic won’t appear until the December jobs report is issued in early January. The November report “will be the last hurrah for the next several months,” Berson said.

November Jobs Report: 245K Jobs Added, Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.7% - This morning's employment report for November showed a 245K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was below the Investing.com forecast of 469K. Here is an excerpt from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. However, the pace of improvement in the labor market has moderated in recent months. In November, notable job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and health care. Employment declined in government and retail trade. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. Data collection for both surveys was affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In the establishment survey, approximately one-fifth of the establishments are assigned to four regional data collection centers for collection. Although these centers were closed, interviewers at these centers worked remotely to collect data by telephone. Additionally, BLS encouraged businesses to report electronically. The collection rate for the establishment survey was 74 percent in November, about the same as the average for the 12 months ending in February 2020. The household survey is generally conducted through in-person and telephone interviews. However, for the safety of both interviewers and respondents, in-person interviews were conducted only when telephone interviews could not be done. The household survey response rate was 79 percent in November, considerably higher than the low of 65 percent in June but below the average of 83 percent for the 12 months ending in February 2020. In the establishment survey, workers who are paid by their employer for all or any part of the pay period including the 12th of the month are counted as employed, even if they were not actually at their jobs. Workers who are temporarily or permanently absent from their jobs and are not being paid are not counted as employed, even if they continue to receive benefits. In the household survey, individuals are classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force based on their answers to a series of questions about their activities during the survey reference week (November 8th through November 14th). Workers who indicate they were not working during the entire survey reference week and expect to be recalled to their jobs should be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. As in recent months, a large number of persons were classified as unemployed ontemporary layoff in November. Since March, household survey interviewers have been instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to temporary, coronavirus-related business closures or cutbacks as unemployed on temporary layoff. As happened in earlier months, some workers affected by the pandemic who should have been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff were instead misclassified as employed but not at work. However, the share of responses that may have been misclassified was highest in the early months of the pandemic and has been considerably lower in recent months. For March through October, BLS published an estimate of what the unemployment rate would have been had misclassified workers been included among the unemployed. Repeating this same approach, the overall November unemployment rate would have been 0.4 percentage point higher than reported. However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error. According to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses. Here is a snapshot of the monthly percent change in Nonfarm Employment since 2000. We've added a 12-month moving average to highlight the long-term trend.

  The Jobs Report is a Mess, December Will Be Messier - Wolf Richter - Everyone seems to be baking the highly anticipated potential future vaccines into the economic cake, but what has been happening for weeks is a spike in Covid cases across the US that has already triggered economic restrictions, including various versions of stay-at-home orders in Los Angeles County, San Francisco, and some other Bay Area counties, with restaurants closed for outdoor dining, strict capacity restrictions in retail stores, and many other restrictions. These moves are ahead of the State of California’s new framework for dealing with the spiking infections.  Other states and cities have similar programs, either on the front burner or on the back burner. The Covid spike has already crimped economic activity and jobs over the past few weeks and is going to do more severely going forward.But the jobs report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was based on surveys of “establishments” for the pay period through November 12; and on surveys of households for the week through November 14.So the data we got today largely missed the labor market consequences of the spike in Covid cases. Those consequence are coming in the next employment reports, starting with the report for December. Despite the cut-off dates having kept much of the Covid-impacted jobs data out of the results, the data have actually deteriorated in several aspects, including the number of people with jobs as reported by households, the employment-population rate, and the labor force. The headline number of 245,000 jobs created came from surveys of establishments (companies, governments, nonprofits, educational institutions, etc.). That survey doesn’t track gig workers. It depicted a lousy recovery. But lousy as it was, it was the more benign part. The survey of households, on the other hand, tracks people who are working full or part time, including gig workers. And households reported that the number of people with jobs ticked down to 149.7 million. This wasn’t a slowdown in growth, but an actual decline of 74,000 working people – the first month-to-month decline since April. The chart shows both results, from establishments (green) and from households (red) – the biggest part of the difference being gig workers. It’s obvious that even by November 12, before the real impact of the Covid surge, this was no good, in terms of catching up with population growth, or in terms of anything else: The employment-population ratio, which tracks the number of employed workers against the working-age population (16 years or older) also dipped in November, to 57.3%, a level first seen since in 1972: Over the long term, the employment-population ratio tracks the progress of globalization – of corporate America outsourcing labor to cheap countries – not only manufacturing and all the economic support that comes with it, but also all kinds of intellectual property work, such as coding and automotive design, and all kinds of other service work, from call centers to basic lawyering. This movement took on momentum in the late 1990s. Since then, after each crisis, companies offshored more work, and the employment-population ratio recovered from the plunge, but not to its previous level, before the next crisis hit and the plunge started all over again, from lower highs to lower lows:

November jobs report: the “least positive” report since April -- HEADLINES:

• 245,000 million jobs gained. The gains since May total about 55% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a loss of -74,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
• U3 unemployment rate fell -0.2% from 6.9% to 6.7%, compared with the January low of 3.5%.
• U6 underemployment rate fell -0.1% from 12.1% to 12.0%, compared with the January low of 6.9%.
• Those on temporary layoff decreased -441,000 to 2,764,,000.
• Permanent job losers increased by 59,000 to 3,743,000.
• September was revised upward by 39,000. October was  revised downward by -28,000 respectively, for a net gain of 11,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
• the average manufacturing workweek declined -0.2 hours from 40.5 hours to 40.3 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI and will be a negative.
• Manufacturing jobs increased by 27,000. Manufacturing has still lost -599,000  jobs in the past 9 months, or -4.7% of the total. About 55% of the total loss of 10.6% has been regained.
• Construction jobs increased by 27,000. Even so, in the past 9 months -279,000 construction jobs have been lost, -3.7% of the total. About 75% of the worst loss of 15.2% loss has been regained.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 1,300. In the past 9 months there have still been 6,100 lost jobs, or about -0.7% of the total.
• temporary jobs rose by 32,200. Since February, there have still been -293,200 jobs lost, or -10% of all temporary help jobs.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less fell by -33,000 to  million, compared with April’s total of 14.283 million.
• Professional and business employment rose by 60,000, which is still -1,061,000, or about -5.0% below its February peak.
• the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose by 0.3%. In the past 9 months combined this has nevertheless fallen by about -6.0%.
• the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.6%. In the past 9 months combined this has nevertheless fallen by about -2.4%. About 85% of the loss from February to April has been made back up.
• Full time jobs gained 752,000 in the household report.
• Part time jobs declined -779,000 in the household report.
• The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons decreased by -23,000 to 6.660 million. This is still an increase since February of 2,342,000.

SUMMARY: This was a mixed report. Most of the headlines were positive, but there were several important internal weaknesses. Most importantly, permanent layoffs increased, and the manufacturing workweek declined. This is a warning that the manufacturing surge may be ebbing, while temporary job losses are metastasizing into permanent ones. The headline number of job gains was by far the least positive of any gains since April.  On the other hand, all of the other leading job categories showed increases in employment. Additionally, both average and aggregate hours and payrolls continued to increase pretty strongly. Aggregate payrolls are back where they were a year ago (of course, inflation has eaten away at some of that rebound).  The overall tone remained positive - but the “least positive” of the last 6 months.

Comments on November Employment Report -- The headline jobs number in the November employment report was well below expectations, however employment for the previous two months were revised up slightly, combined.   Government employment declined 99 thousand in November.   The job losses at the Federal level were due to letting go temporary decennial workers, however state and local governments lost jobs again.  These state and local government job losses could increase sharply in early 2021 if there is no disaster relief for the states.  Leisure and hospitality added another 31 thousand jobs in November, following 4.84 million jobs added in May through October. Leisure and hospitality lost 8.3 million jobs in March and April, so about 59% of those jobs were added back in the May through November period.  Earlier: November Employment Report: 245 Thousand Jobs Added, 6.7% Unemployment Rate  In November, the year-over-year employment change was minus 9.19 million jobs.This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the November report. (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg) This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In November, the number of permanent job losers increased to 3.743 million from 3.684 million in October. Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The prime working age will be key in the eventual recovery. The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in November to 80.9% from 81.2% in October, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at 76.0% from 76.0% in October. Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping. Retailers hired 302 thousand workers (NSA) net in November. Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted). This was a loss of 35 thousand jobs, seasonally adjusted, in November. This might be distorted this year by a combination of seasonal hiring - and some bounce back in employment from the shutdowns earlier this year.The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased slightly in November to 6.660 million from 6.684 million in October. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 12.0% in November. This is down from the record high in April 22.8% for this measure since 1994. This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 3.941 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This has increased sharply - since the largest number of layoffs were around April - and this will be a key measure to follow during the recovery. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was well below expectations, however the previous two months were revised up 11,000 combined. The headline unemployment rate decreased to 6.7%, but this was due to a decline in the participation rate. Overall this was a disappointing report.

 Women and the Middle-Aged Taking Brunt of Covid Employment Losses - Yves Smith -- The Wall Street Journal provides a recap of how the workforce has changed as a result of Covid. Even though this week’s jobless claim figures were better than expected and unemployment has fallen to 6.9%, nearly half of its recent peak, those figures mask underlying erosion in employment. Headline unemployment is calculated based on the number actively seeking work. As the subhead to the Journal story explains, “Nearly four million Americans have stopped working or looking for jobs.” It adds:  The labor-force participation rate, or the share of Americans 16 years and over working or seeking work, was 61.7% in October, down from 63.4% in February. Though up from April’s trough, that is near its lowest since the 1970s, when far fewer women were in the workforce.  The supply of workers and their productivity are the building blocks of economic growth. A smaller labor force leaves fewer workers to build machines and clean tables, restraining the economy’s long-term prospects.  The Journal further describes that women and those over 55 have taken the biggest hits, and decline results from three sometimes overlapping factors. First, business closures/job reductions are skewed toward fields where women are over-represented, like retail, hospitality, and personal services. Second, many prime age women have had to stop working to care for children due to school closures. Third, older workers typically often it difficult to land a job again if they lose one in a recession. Again from the Journal: For those of you old enough to remember, the 1980-1981 downturn was ugly, the worst since the Great Depression, and the economy had been limping for the past six-seven previous years due to stagflation. Weaker labor protection almost certainly plays a big role in lower levels of employment among over-55 year old workers, particularly given that older people are generally more robust than then. Individuals in union jobs would not have to retire until they were ready to, and seniority-based pay scales would encourage them to work until 60 or later. Union contracts were de facto standard setters, including for white collar jobs. It would have been unusual back then for a solid employee to be pushed out before retirement age unless a business was in trouble. Keep in mind that this picture of Covid job losses is very different from the job loss pattern after the Financial Crisis, where men suffered due to the loss of construction job

 Labor Department Published Flawed Estimates of Weekly Jobless Claims, Watchdog Says – WSJ —The nation’s system for providing unemployment benefits to jobless workers has consistently produced inaccurate data and lower-than-appropriate payouts to millions of workers amid the Covid-19 pandemic, a government watchdog said Monday. The Labor Department’s weekly reports on jobless claims have published “flawed estimates of the number of individuals receiving benefits each week throughout the pandemic,” the Government Accountability Office said in a periodic report, warning that the inaccuracies could hinder policy makers’ ability to effectively respond to the economic fallout. The report said the weekly data had included overestimates and underestimates at various times, but GAO officials said they didn’t know the full extent of the errors. In addition, a program created by Congress to provide jobless benefits to workers who are normally not eligible for them has underpaid recipients in most states. As a result, the average weekly payout under what is called the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program—which is available to gig-economy workers and the self-employed—is below the poverty line in 70% of states that reported data. “The majority of states have been paying PUA claimants the minimum allowable benefit instead of the amount they are eligible for based on prior earnings,” the GAO said. While states are obligated to pay out the full amount that is owed “with the greatest promptness that is administratively feasible,” Labor Department officials told the GAO they didn’t know how many states had begun working to do so. The Labor Department didn’t respond to requests for comment. The GAO report said much of the inaccurate data in the department’s weekly jobless-claims reports stemmed from inconsistent reporting from states, many of which have been overwhelmed by processing backlogs of claims. Thomas Costa, acting director of the GAO’s education, workforce and income-security team, said the office didn’t have exact estimates of the magnitude of the inaccuracies in Labor Department data or for the total number of PUA claimants who have been underpaid. He said the latter figure is likely in the millions. Nathan Courtney, a 30-year-old Army veteran in Mobile, Ala., who lost his construction job amid lockdowns in the spring, said his unemployment checks were recently cut to $113 a week, the state’s minimum payout, from $275, the maximum. The change occurred after he was transferred to PUA.

 Google illegally surveilled and fired organizers, NLRB complaint alleges - The National Labor Relations Board filed a complaint against Google Wednesday alleging that the company illegally spied on and then fired two employees for organizing. The complaint says that Google violated labor laws by surveilling and terminating Laurence Berland and Kathryn Spiers, both former engineers at the company's San Francisco office, in 2019. Berland was fired after organizing against Google's decision to hire the notorious union-busting firm IRI Consultants. He had found out about the work with IRI from colleague's calendar events, which Google claimed was in violation of their policies. “Google’s hiring of IRI is an unambiguous declaration that management will no longer tolerate worker organizing," he said in a statement Wednesday. "Management and their union busting cronies wanted to send that message, and the NLRB is now sending their own message: worker organizing is protected by law." Spiers had created a pop-up for Google employees visiting IRI's website that reminded them of their “right to participate in protected concerted activities.” “This week the NLRB issued a complaint on my behalf," she said. "They found that I was illegally terminated for trying to help my colleagues." Google has previously defended the firings, arguing that the two workers had violated company policy. "We strongly support the rights our employees have in the workplace, and open discussion and respectful debate have always been part of Google," a company spokesperson told The Hill. "We’re proud of our culture and committed to defending it against attempts by individuals to deliberately undermine it -- including by violating security policies and internal systems." The NLRB determined that accessing internal calendars and reminding workers of their rights were not grounds for retaliation. The agency opened the investigation last December.

Microsoft’s new “Productivity Score” helps employers spy on workers - Microsoft has expanded the analytics provided with its Office 365 suite of productivity applications into a “full-fledged workplace surveillance tool” according to privacy advocates. The tool, called Productivity Score, allows employers to know the number of days a person was active on Microsoft Word, Outlook, Excel, PowerPoint, Skype and Teams over the previous four weeks and on what type of device. The software gives managers access to 73 pieces of granular data about employee behaviors, all of which is associated with employees by name. Microsoft denies the software is workplace surveillance, but privacy advocates say it most certainly is. Vienna-based researcher Wolfie Christl tweeted a screenshot of the Productivity Score dashboard, writing that “Esoteric metrics based on analyzing extensive data about employee activities has been mostly the domain of fringe software vendors. Now it’s built into MS 365.” “A new feature to calculate ‘productivity scores’ turns Microsoft 365 into a full-fledged workplace surveillance tool,” Christl added. Microsoft claims that the software is not designed as a tool to monitor employee work output activities. A September blog post by Anthony Smith, introducing the product, claimed, “we safeguard against this type of use by not providing specific information on individualized actions, and instead only analyze user-level data aggregated over a 28-day period, so you can’t see what a specific employee is working on at a given time. Productivity Score was built to help you understand how people are using the productivity tools and how well the underlying technology supports them in this.” In an email to The Register Christl refuted the software giant’s claim, saying the system “does clearly monitor employee activities.” He referenced Microsoft’s own promotional video which shows a list of clearly identifiable users. Posting the video on Twitter, Christl wrote: “Employers/managers can analyze employee activities at the individual level (!), for example, the number of days an employee has been sending emails, using the chat, using ‘mentions’ in emails etc.”

"It's Really Bad" - Almost One-Third Of Small Businesses In NY, NJ Have Closed  - Here comes the next recession as nearly one-third of small businesses in New York and New Jersey remain closed since the virus pandemic began earlier this year. The NYPost outlines small business data from Opportunity Insights and New Jersey Business & Industry Association paint a troubling outlook for the rest of 2020 into 2021. Opportunity Insights' TrackingTheRecovery.Org, a Harvard database that monitors economic activity for the US, currently says 27.8% of small businesses in New York remain closed. The same goes for New Jersey, where 31.2% of small businesses had not reopened. The New Jersey Business & Industry Association reports similar figures with 28% of New Jersey's small businesses have closed up shop this year. With top federal health officials on Sunday warning about a post-Thanksgiving spike in COVID-19, the reemergence of the virus in New York and New Jersey, along with stricter social distancing measures, means that more small businesses may be decimated in the months ahead. "It's really bad," Eileen Kean, New Jersey state director of the National Federation of Independent Businesses, told the Star-Ledger. "And without federal dollars coming into New Jersey, the Main Street stores and other establishments are not gonna make it through the winter," Kean said. "It's devastating how many restaurants have shuttered and jobs have been lost," said Andrew Rigie, executive director of NYC Hospitality Alliances. "And with the infection rate rising and the looming threat of indoor dining closing again, many more will close unless the government provides adequate support to these small businesses," Rigie said.

GM’s Closed Lordstown Factory Spawns a Wave of Industrial Migrants – WSJ -- Itinerant work has long been common in manufacturing.  The workers in Lordstown, many of whom are multigenerational GM employees, never planned to be among them. The plant was an example of American manufacturing might when it opened in 1966, churning out Chevrolet Impalas, Bel Airs and Caprices. It has since become a symbol of the economic struggles of those who work in factory jobs. American auto workers in particular, already losing work due to advances in automation and shifts to overseas plants, now also face dwindling job prospects as car makers increasingly look to move to easier-to-assemble electric models. Manufacturing jobs have grown during the economic expansion over the past decade, though the numbers have shrunk over the long term. In Ohio, the number of employees in manufacturing has dropped 35% since 2000, to around 660,700 in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A few months after taking office, President Trump traveled to Youngstown, a short drive from Lordstown, addressing blue-collar supporters who worried their factory jobs were gone for good. “They’re all coming back,” he said. “Don’t move. Don’t sell your house.” Instead, cratering demand for the Chevrolet Cruze left the Lordstown plant without a car to build, and, following a 40-day strike, company and United Auto Workers union officials agreed on terms for closing the plant. A large cadre of veteran employees faced the choice between staying home with their families but uncertain financial futures, or relocating to other GM plants where they’d hang onto their union pay and benefits.When the assembly lines at Lordstown finally stopped, nearly all of the plant’s roughly 1,400 hourly auto workers were able to find jobs at other GM plants. The vast majority were in Texas, Missouri, Tennessee and other out-of-state locations, according to the company.  Some Lordstown workers sold their houses and hauled spouses and children to their new job sites. About half ventured out on their own, leaving families and homes in Ohio, according to people in the union who helped with transfers.

Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 49% YoY in October -- From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: October 2020 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics:  Visitor volume continued to ramp‐up in October as the destination hosted approx. 1.86M visitors, about half of last October's tally but up 9% from last month. With continued hotel re‐openings at the end of Sep and in early Oct, the room tally of open properties in October represented 140,658 rooms. Total occupancy was 46.9% for the month as weekend occupancy reached 64.2% and midweek occupancy reached 38.6%. Average daily rates among open properties reached $104.54 (‐3.3% MoM, ‐22.8% YoY) while RevPAR came in at roughly $49, down ‐59.7% vs. last October. * Reflects weighted average of daily room tallies  Here is the data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. Convention traffic in October was down 100% compared to October 2019. And visitor traffic was down 49% YoY. The casinos started to reopen on June 4th (it appears about 94% of rooms have now opened).

The NFL’s Thanksgiving Weekend Has Become a Covid Crisis – WSJ - The National Football League’s Thanksgiving weekend is supposed to be a feast of tradition and marquee matchups. The pandemic-year edition has exploded into a series of crises that threaten to break the NFL’s season. Over the past several days, new coronavirus problems erupted across the league as Covid-19 cases continued to surge throughout the country. The situation is so severe that, after Sunday’s games, the NFL will shut down most in-person activities for two days to regroup from the weekend amid worries that behavior over the holiday may make matters worse. The problems include:

• • An outbreak inside the Baltimore Ravens that led to the postponement of their Thanksgiving night game against the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers, who now have their own cluster of cases;
• • The Denver Broncos being left without a quarterback for their game Sunday after one player’s positive test sent all of the its quarterbacks into league-mandated quarantine;
• • A temporary ban on contact sports in Santa Clara County, Calif., that has sent the San Francisco 49ers scrambling for a place to practice and play.

In a stark signal of the situation’s severity, commissioner Roger Goodell sent a memo on Friday that prohibits teams from practicing or conducting any in-person activities on Monday and Tuesday this week, excepting the teams playing on those days. The memo said the decision was in response to both the increase in positivity rates across the country and the recent holiday, saying it is the league’s “understanding that a number of players and staff celebrated the Thanksgiving holiday with out-of-town guests.” The NFL isn’t yet considering pausing the season or immediately trying to get players into more sealed environments, such as hotels, during the regular season, a person familiar with the matter said. The NFL’s crisis didn’t happen in isolation. Recent weeks have produced record-high case totals in the U.S.—and America’s most popular sport isn’t immune. The surge in positives nationwide has been reflected in the NFL, where far more players and staff have contracted the virus than earlier in the year. Over the season’s first three weeks back in September, an average of six players or staff tested positive per week across the entire league. In the first two weeks of November that weekly leaguewide average was nine times higher: 54. “It reflects the continued uptick that we’re seeing in cases around the country,”

Michigan restaurants urged to defy governor's COVID-19 restrictions The two owners of a Michigan restaurant chain reportedly wrote a letter asking other restaurateurs to continue operations regardless of whether or not state Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and state health department officials implement stricter lockdowns on indoor dining.   The Detroit Free Press reports that Joe and Rosalie Vicari, the owners of Andiamo restaurants in Detroit, penned a letter asking restaurants to fight any closures issued following the outcome of a lawsuit filed by the Michigan Restaurant and Lodging Association that seeks to halt the state’s attempts at shutting dining operations down to prevent COVID-19 transmission.  The Vicaris wrote that if they lose the lawsuit, the state will likely shut down dining operations through the end of the year. “Our industry cannot survive another extended closure,” the letter reportedly reads. “Thousands of restaurants and tens of thousands of our employees can not survive it either. We need to band together and FIGHT BACK but we need to do this as a United Group of Michigan Restaurant Owners.” Rosalie Vicari confirmed to reporters that she and her husband authored the letter. Part of Michigan’s public health restrictions include closing down indoor dining and restaurants and bars, organized and pro sports, in-person high schools, movie theaters, and other public spaces. These spaces will remain shut down for three weeks. The Michigan Restaurant and Lodging Association sued the state over the mandate, and was denied a temporary restraining order on the policy on Nov. 20.

Democratic Austin Mayor Urged Citizens Not To Relax... Stay Home While Vacationing In Cabo - George Orwell’s Animal Farm gave us the useful phrase “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.” The latest case in point is Austin Mayor Steve Adler. Back in November, he told Austin to stay home to stay safe. But he wasn’t at home at all when he said this. Statesman.com's Tony Plohetski reports the details that in early November, as health officials warned of a impending COVID-19 spike, Austin Mayor Steve Adler hosted an outdoor wedding and reception with 20 guests for his daughter at a trendy hotel near downtown. The next morning, Adler and seven other wedding attendees boarded a private jet bound for Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, where they vacationed for a week at a family timeshare. One night into the trip, Adler addressed Austin residents in a Facebook video: “We need to stay home if you can. This is not the time to relax. We are going to be looking really closely. ... We may have to close things down if we are not careful.” In hosting the wedding and traveling internationally, Adler said he broke neither his own order or those established by Gov. Greg Abbott. But at the time, the city was recommending people not gather in groups of more than 10, and the day after Adler’s departure, Austin’s health authority warned that “it’s important that we drive the (COVID-19) numbers down in advance of Thanksgiving.” 

“with our breathtaking landscapes and wide-open spaces, we’re a place to safely explore.” --  Celebrate what makes America great, and experience the Great Faces and Great Places of South Dakota. . Both South and North Dakota have emerged as the nations hot spots for Covid infections even though sparsely populated per square mile and with smaller populations than other states. The situation has worsened since this article was originally run by CBS News and if North and South Dakota were countries they would be #1 and #2 globally for cases per million with a death rate per million in the top ten globally. Is there no shame left?  South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem’s administration announced Tuesday that it is using federal coronavirus relief funds to pay for a $5 million tourism ad campaign aimed at drawing people to the state. The move comes even as the state emerges as one of the nation’s top hot spots (#2 after North Dakota) for COVID-19 infections per million. South Dakota with ~900,000 people ranks second in the US for Covid cases/million (89,412) and  second only to North Dakota (102,269) with a lesser population of ~800,000. The death rate per million for South Dakota is 1065/million placing it #9 in the US and after more densely populated states in the US. Considering South Dakota’s Covid infection rate of 89,412/million with a population of 900,000, a population density of 11 people per square mile, and comparing it to other states with greater population densities per square mile; the claim by Gov. Kristi Noem’s of South Dakota being “a place to safely explore” If North and South Dakota were nations, they would rank one and two in cases per million and deaths per million (aside from other states in the US which have higher deaths/million).Thnk about it, how do you do this, boast about how safe you are in the US, and then appropriate money to encourage people to come to your state; when you are the worst of the worst for cases in the US and globally and top the death rate globally if considered a nation? If, and I don’t, wanted to be close to people with Covid; I can just step outside in Michigan and go to a grocery store.

Absolutely Crazy - Sub-Zero Freezer Demand Erupts Ahead Of Vaccine Distribution -Demand for sub-zero freezers has erupted over the last month following encouraging COVID-19 vaccine developments from Pfizer and the German firm BioNTech. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has to be stored at -70 degrees Celsius - standard commercial freezers don't get that cold - forcing many hospital systems across the country to panic buy these special freezers from refrigerator-maker So-Low Environmental Equipment.  Dean Hensler, vice president of So-Low, told CNBC's Squawk on the Street that "right now we are out of everything." Hensler said the anticipation of coronavirus vaccine distribution had unleashed a massive buying wave of ultra-cold freezers by hospital systems that plan on storing then distributing the vaccine. Last week, Pfizer-BioNTech filed for emergency use authorization with the FDA for approval - a meeting had been scheduled for Dec. 8, 9, and 10 - Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said the first doses of the vaccine could be shipped out within hours of the EUA approval.Reuters quoted President Trump on Thursday evening, saying the vaccine could begin delivery as soon as next week. The largest hurdle for a nationwide vaccine rollout is the expanding need for cold storage. "We had heard that the Pfizer was going to have to be stored at minus 70. We took it upon ourselves to say, 'Hey, listen, we've got to do something about this,'" Hensler said. "Our phones started ringing off the hook the day it ... got out to the public. That inventory we had built was gone like in three weeks, so now we're building everything per order," he said. "We're running about six to eight weeks on delivery right now. It's been crazy. It's been crazy.""We're going to work Friday after Thanksgiving," Hensler said. The way the company sees it, he said, "The quicker we can get freezers out, the more people can get vaccinated, and we can get back to the old normal, rather than this new normal."Earlier this week, UPS announced it would produce thousands of pounds of dry ice per day and provide cold storage facilities and transportation for COVID-19 vaccines.

Nearly 26 million Americans are going hungry the week of Thanksgiving - Robert Reich - A staggering one in EIGHT Americans reported they sometimes or often didn’t have enough food to eat in the past week. That’s nearly 26 million Americans who are going hungry the week of Thanksgiving. And a full quarter of out-of-work Americans with children at home reported not having enough food to eat. The numbers are worse for Black households than for white ones: 22 percent of Black households reported going hungry in the past week, over 2.5 times the rate for white households. Food banks are overwhelmed trying to meet the new surge in demand: “We'll be hard pressed to keep up. We’re just bracing for the worst,” said the CEO of Feeding Texas. Meanwhile, Mitch McConnell adjourned the Senate last week and let them skip town early for Thanksgiving. He and his do nothing Senate Republicans get to go home to their families and sit down to a table bursting with food, while 26 million of their fellow Americans starve. As long as their rich friends are happy now that the stock market is soaring, they couldn’t be bothered to serve their constituents. It’s one of the grossest abdications of duty I’ve ever seen. There are no words to truly describe Mitch McConnell’s moral bankruptcy.

COVID-19 impact: $170 million in delinquent Duke Energy bills - The COVID-19 pandemic is hitting many families so hard financially that utility companies across the mountains are reporting major increases in the number of customers unable to pay to keep their lights on. There has been a 12% increase in customers who are 30 days delinquent in paying bills compared to this time last year, Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress reported. Duke Energy, which serves 3.4 million North Carolina residents, reported a balance of more than $170 million in delinquent bills for residential customers across North Carolina. There has been a 12% increase in customers who are 30 days delinquent in paying bills compared to this time last year, Duke Energy Carolinas reported. (Photo credit: WLOS staff) Su Vandehey, who lives in Asheville, has been struggling for months to stay afloat. “It’s been very stressful,” said Vandehey, who finished school to become a massage therapist last year. “The testing centers were closed (because of the pandemic), so I was then unable to get licensed and start my business." Vandehey, who is raising a 5-year-old daughter and has another on the way, is working part-time doing food delivery. Duke Energy spokesman Jason Walls said the company is doing what it can to help people who are struggling. “Turning off a customer’s power is the absolute last resort, and we don’t want to do that," Walls said. Duke also offers interest-free extended payments. Vandehey misunderstood a bill she received in October and feared Duke was about to turn her power off. But the bill actually said Duke was about to begin the process. Still she was scared..

Florida power shutoffs are up slightly from last year as pandemic continues - Roughly 30,000 residential customers of Duke Energy Florida and Tampa Electric Co. had their power shut off in October after the state’s investor-owned utilities resumed disconnections for people who haven’t paid their bills. That’s up about 8 percent from the same month a year ago, as the coronavirus pandemic maintained its grip on the U.S., forcing employers to shutter their workplaces and layoff employees to contain the spread. Most customers — about 86 percent ― managed to have their service restored. But 4,000 residential customers remained without power at the end of the month, according to the most recent state regulatory filings. While the numbers aren’t significantly different than this time last year, Bradley Marshall, a lawyer with advocacy group Earthjustice, noted that the actual number of people affected is much larger. Multiple members of a household, for example, are part of the single account for that home. “The point is you shouldn’t be turning off people’s electricity during a pandemic,” he said. “People are being told they’re not able to see their families over Thanksgiving, but if their power’s off, they’re going to be doubling up.” As of October, nearly 4 percent of Duke Energy’s residential customers around the state were on some form of a payment plan, the average length of which was just over 7 months. Tampa Electric reported that 2.5 percent of its customers were on a payment plan averaging 42 days

 Utility customers owe up to $40B in COVID-19 debt, but who will pay it?  - Shutoff moratoria across the country, allowing COVID-impacted residential and small business customers to defer utility payments without the threat of losing service, have been invaluable to millions, authorities on energy bill assistance say. But when the vaccines are dispensed and the pandemic fades, any economic recovery will be impacted by potentially huge debts to utilities, debts that have yet to be addressed anywhere, experts said. State regulators will decide whether the indebted customers, all utility customers, investors, taxpayers — or some combination of those groups — should pay this bill. We surveyed 1,000 utility customers. Watch our video to learn how to use the findings to improve the customer experience and drive energy saving actions. Residential and small business customers could owe "$35 billion to $40 billion dollars to their utilities by March 2021," according to National Energy Assistance Directors' Association (NEADA) Executive Director Mark Wolfe. "Our new arrearage data shows that by then, individual unpaid bills may be as high as $1,500 to $2,000, which is as much as some customers pay for electricity in a year." Utilities have done remarkable things to keep customers' lights on and "just get through the pandemic," spokespeople for San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), Duke Energy and other utilities said. But policymakers and regulators must now plan to get working-class families the debt forgiveness that businesses and institutions got from the federal government's paycheck protection programs, Wolfe said. "The reality is that someone is going to pay," said University of Florida Public Utility Research Center Director of Energy Studies Theodore J. Kury. Policymakers' and regulators' choices include requiring payment from indebted customers, shifting the debt to utilities and their ratepayers, imposing it on taxpayers, or some combination. Although there may eventually be some good from the decision — like a better understanding of the effectiveness of moratoria or an improved relationship between utilities and their customers — they now must choose "how and when people pay," he added. Starting in March, many states and utilities suspended power shut-offs for nonpayment. State-mandated or voluntary utility shut-off moratoria are now in place for 51% of the U.S. population (167 million people) across the country through Jan. 31, 2021, according to NEADA data from November. As a result, utilities are seeing diminished revenues as they face unexpected expenses. The pandemic "required us to dramatically adjust how we operate," Duke spokesperson Neil Nissan said. Like many utilities, Duke suspended disconnections for unpaid bills and waived late and other fees. The utility also helped customers enroll in local payment programs, the federal Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) or state and local assistance programs, including Duke Energy Foundation-funded local assistance agencies.

New Mexico Public Schools Are Missing Over 12,000 Students - Public schools have had a chance to evaluate student attendance data and have found “missing students” between the Spring and Fall semesters of this school year.  You might ask why they are suddenly so concerned about this fact. Is it because they are concerned about students who are not getting an education?   Or, is it because they will lose money without students in attendance? It may be some of each, but the last question could be the primary motivation for state public education departments to do a canvas of attendance over the Fall semester. And of course, don’t forget indoctrination. That’s a lot more difficult when the kids are being educated outside “the system.”  Public schools receive their funding from a number of sources, most of which comes from the local (44%) and state (48%) property taxes. Federal government (8%) funding is designated to serve disadvantaged populations, including families in poverty, students who have special needs, a student population of English language learners, and teacher quality improvement programs, seen in the form of grants. (Source)  Each state has its own funding formula, but in my state, the money is allocated by the legislature and based upon a number of factors, the largest of which is student enrollment.  Well, as you can imagine, COVID-19 has had an unprecedented effect on student enrollment and attendance.  Many of the school districts in my state elected to do school entirely online. As a result, some parents have decided to homeschool, others don’t have reliable internet and their children cannot consistently attend online classes, and others may have left the state as their jobs evaporated with the lockdowns.  The NM Public Education Department (PED) wants to know where they’ve gone and wants to woo them back with a program called Engage NM.  Now, this program sounds quite altruistic and is funded through a partnership with NM PED and Graduation Alliance.  Graduation Alliance operates primarily in New Mexico, South Carolina, Arkansas, Kansas, Washington, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, and some school districts in Texas. Its aim is to enroll students who have dropped out of school into their accredited online program. That’s an interesting twist. Why would a public education department promote enrolling its own students in an out-of-state program that is free of charge? In an article posted on KOAT, the New Mexico Public Education Department reveals, over 12,000 of students enrolled in the spring, have now “gone missing,” and with them the funding they generated.

New York City schools to reopen amid explosion of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, deaths -- New York City’s Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio’s plan to reopen the city’s schools next week, which was announced Sunday, is a direct threat to the lives of the students, parents and teachers involved. Moreover, it is a warning to the working class in the United States and internationally that even as numerous coronavirus vaccines are nearing completion, workers and youth will continue to be sent into workplaces and schools to needlessly get sick and die. De Blasio’s plan was summarized on his Twitter account, where he noted that all 3-K, Pre-K and K-5 students will resume in-person learning beginning Dec. 7, followed by all grade levels for students with disabilities on Dec. 10. The order came amid an explosion of daily coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in the city, which have both more than doubled in the past month, along with a 50 percent increase in daily deaths during that same period. They demonstrate that there is no medical basis for the school reopenings. Indeed, a key part of de Blasio’s new plan is the abandonment of the earlier three percent coronavirus positivity threshold that was crossed in the city on Nov. 11, which triggered the school closures earlier this month. Instead, in the wake of the city’s positivity rate rising to 3.6 percent, the students will be given “weekly COVID-19 testing,” with little concrete information provided as to what will occur when outbreaks in various buildings inevitably occur. The school reopening is being aided and abetted by Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert and a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, who commented Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” that, “the default position should be as best as possible, within reason, to keep the children in school and get them back to school.”

In Sudden Reversal, de Blasio Announces NYC To Reopen Elementary Schools, Phase Out Hybrid Learning - NYC mayor Bill de Blasio may still doesn't have a plan for reopening NYC's schools, but that's not going to stop him from sending hundreds of thousands of elementary school students back into the classrooms starting early next month. While Middle Schools and High Schools will remain closed, elementary schools will reopen immediately abruptly abandoning the 3% positive test rate threshold for Covid-19 he set earlier for closing the schools.  "There’s less concern about the spread when it comes to younger kids," de Blasio said in a news conference, clearly ignoring what "the scientists" have been saying, namely that young children are among the top vectors for covid spread. "And I feel for all our parents who are experiencing so many challenges right now."  De Blasio also promised to 'overhaul' how the city manages schools during the pandemic, suggesting that more students would be returning to classrooms, while remote learning would start to be abandoned.  The city's 3% 7-day positivity rate threshold for ending in-person learning will be ditched in favor of allowing parents to decide whether they want their children in classrooms for 5 days a week.Children in pre-K and elementary school can return to classrooms beginning Dec. 7, while students with other more complex disabilities will start Dec. 10. Evidence has shown that elementary school students and students with disabilities can return to the classroom without causing much, if any, spread.  De Blasio's decision to close schools for the second time just 8 weeks after reopening them became a flash point in a broader debate about whether closing public schools does more harm to society than good, especially after Europe made schools a priority. Sunday's announcement reflects a stark departure from the city’s original approach to managing the schools during the outbreak, especially by offering a plan to return students to classroom-based learning and away from 'hybrid' approaches.The mayor's new blueprint represents the city’s second shot at reopening, after the first attempt was plagued by problems and his threshold to close schools was roundly criticized by everyone from local health officials to parents.Now, instead of using a specific metric to close schools, the city will closely monitor the number of classrooms and schools that close because of multiple confirmed cases. The mayor has long insisted that the entire public school system should reopen, and that every student, from kindergarten through 12th grade, should have the option of learning in person. But it doesn't look like the new system will work that way.Instead, NYC schools will operate more like other school systems, with primarily younger and less risky students receiving in person education while older more mature students who are better equipped to handle remote learning can stick with that.

The conspiracy to reopen schools -  On Sunday, Democratic Party Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that New York City would abandon its school safety guidelines and reopen schools even though COVID-19 is surging out of control throughout the city. In moving to reopen schools, de Blasio simply ignored the city’s rule that schools would be closed when the test positivity rate exceeded three percent. The rule was initially put in place in an effort to contain mass opposition among teachers to the unsafe reopening of the school district. Not only is the rate above three percent, it has risen to nearly four percent. The mayor’s decision, backed by the unions, is driven not by considerations of science or public health, but by the demands of Wall Street. The ruling class wants schools open to house children under unsafe conditions so that their parents can go back to work, also under unsafe conditions. The reopening of schools in New York City, the country’s largest school district, sets the pattern for the entire country and is intended to enforce the ruling class policy of “herd immunity.” De Blasio justified his actions with a single sentence: “We know first of all studies consistently show that younger kids are having less of a negative experience, and there’s less concern about the spread when it comes to younger kids.” This is a bald faced lie. All reputable scientific surveys contradict his claim that there is now “less concern” about the spread of COVID-19 in schools. A study published just two weeks ago in Nature, which is among the world’s foremost scientific journals, found that closing schools is one of the most effective ways to contain COVID-19. The study, “Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions,” was published by researchers at the Medical University of Vienna, Austria. As more data comes in, it has become clearer that school closures do prevent the spread of COVID-19. It notes that “school closures in the United States have been found to reduce COVID-19 incidence and mortality by about 60 percent. This result is also in line with a contact-tracing study from South Korea, which identified adolescents aged 10–19 years as more likely to spread the virus than adults and children in household settings.” The Nature article cited a study in July published by the Journal of the American Medical Association, “Association Between Statewide School Closure and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the US,” which found that “school closure was associated with a significant decline in both incidence of COVID-19… and mortality.”#160;

Chicago Public Schools unveils reopening plan -- The Chicago Public Schools (CPS) reopening plan unveiled last month by Democratic Mayor Lori Lightfoot and the CPS and public health officials will result in the needless deaths of more Illinois teachers, students and their family members if it is not opposed. Teachers must fight this completely unscientific plan and ensure that schools remain closed until vaccines are widely available and the pandemic is contained. The Democratic Party is taking the lead nationally on the back-to-work campaign, which depends upon the unsafe reopening of the schools. The trillions added to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve to stave off the financial collapse that erupted in mid-March can only be repaid through the intense exploitation of the working class. The primary motive is clearly not concern for students’ education or well-being, as city officials have cynically claimed, but rather to provide the basis for getting parents back to work. The same motives are driving Lightfoot and the CPS, whose school reopening plan aims to bring back primarily those students under the age of 14, who cannot legally be left alone in Illinois without supervision, while leaving high school students to learn remotely. The current plan calls for students in Pre-K and those in moderate and intensive special education cluster programs to return to class January 11, while students in grades K-8 are scheduled to be back in school February 1. The drive to reopen Chicago schools coincides with the intensifying spread of the pandemic throughout the Midwest. Chicago hospitals are filled with COVID-19 patients, 279 of whom are in intensive-care units, of whom 159 are on ventilators. Chicago’s current positivity rate is 11.6 percent, and over the past week the city has been averaging 1,723 cases per day. The positivity rate and daily new infection figures have nearly tripled since Illinois Democratic Governor J.B. Pritzker issued his July 24 executive order allowing school districts to make their own reopening decisions for the fall, regardless of the state’s own thresholds for phased reopening and despite the state having reverted to more strict mitigation measures since the order was issued. The state of Illinois was also recently discovered to be tracking workplace outbreaks but keeping this critical information hidden from the public.

Los Angeles school district plans full reopening as COVID-19 outbreaks mount in schools - Like nearly all other major metropolitan regions across the United States, coronavirus cases in Los Angeles have skyrocketed over the past month. There are now over 4,000 new cases per day in Los Angeles County, a quadrupling of cases over the same time period in October. The county is already on track to run out of hospital beds within the next two to three weeks. This reflects statewide trends, prompting California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom to announce Monday that the state is on the brink of more extensive stay-at-home orders. More than 75 percent of the state’s 7,533 ICU beds are now occupied and 51 of the state’s 58 counties are now in the “purple” tier, indicating widespread infections with test positivity rates higher than 8 percent. The remaining seven counties are mostly in the sparsely-populated Sierra Nevada mountain regions. Los Angeles County, which is the largest county in the US by population, issued the most stringent stay-at-home orders in the state Monday to deal with rising infections. Yet even these measures are wholly inadequate, allowing most businesses and workplaces to remain open but only at reduced capacities. The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department also announced that even these provisions will not be enforced and instead rely on voluntary compliance. Prior to the latest upsurge in cases and hospitalizations, the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) was poised to reopen schools for in-person learning in November despite the already immense risks at the time. The district had laid out a plan to regularly test students and had partnered with Microsoft to make use of its newly-created “Daily Pass” app to clear students for campus entry. While plans for a full reopening have not yet been implemented, athletic training has already begun at a small number of campuses, while many campuses have already partially reopened to a limited number of students for tutoring and for hybrid models of learning, producing a surge in coronavirus infections. The Los Angeles Times reported last week that 263, or nearly all of the partially reopened schools in Los Angeles County, had experienced coronavirus infections during the current school year, which began in September. In November, there was also a marked increase in infection outbreaks, defined as three or more cases within a 14-day period.

Sixteen-year-old Wisconsin high school student dies of COVID-19  - On November 25, the day before Thanksgiving, Isai Morocho, a 16-year-old junior at Madison East High School in Madison, Wisconsin, died suddenly from complications due to COVID-19.Morocho was described by the East High principal Brendan Kearney as “an excellent student who enjoyed theatre and had talked of becoming a chef and owning his own business” and “a caring friend and family member with a ready smile and great sense of humor.”In a heartbreaking interview with Madison365, Isai’s father, Milton Morocho, described his son as “young and strong… very healthy and strong.” He explained that his son’s death from the disease was totally unexpected. Milton Morocho, through tears, urged others not to be careless and think their loved ones are safe because of age or health.After coming down with nausea and diarrhea last month, Isai was brought to a clinic where he tested negative for COVID-19. Doctors originally dismissed the idea that it could be the novel coronavirus, as he was not showing the typical symptoms, and sent him home with the diagnosis of what they suspected was a stomach bug.After a few days of consistent illness, his parents took him back to the clinic, but because he had already tested negative before, doctors did not test him for again for coronavirus. Isai’s family was worried by his inability to keep even water down, but were reassured by the doctors who claimed his heart and lungs were working just fine, so it was highly unlikely that his illness was COVID-19.Although Milton Morocho revealed that he feared Isai may have COVID-19, he thought it was unlikely for someone of his age to be gravely ill from it. Furthermore, Isai had no trouble breathing, and he did not display any of the most common symptoms of COVID-19. In the toxicology report the family received after Isai’s death, they learned he had indeed died of a COVID-19 related pneumonia.

Cleveland-Heights University Heights School District threatens to halt health care benefits if teachers strike- On November 27, the Cleveland-Heights-University Heights School District (CH-UH) located just outside of Cleveland, Ohio announced it will stop the payment of health care benefits for the roughly 500 teachers and other school employees that are planning to strike on December 2. Teachers and other school employees have been working without a contract since June 30. The strike threat by CH-UH teachers takes place as the COVID-19 pandemic is raging out of control in Ohio and across the US amid a continued push by the ruling class to re-start in person learning. Ohio is experiencing a daily average of 7,817 new cases and 42 daily deaths. Elizabeth Kirby, superintendent of the Cleveland Heights-University Heights City School District, said in a statement, “When public school teachers choose to go on strike, they are knowingly walking away from wages and benefits.” She also called on the leadership of the Cleveland Heights Teachers Union (CHTU) American Federation of Teachers (AFT) Local 795 to inform members of the retaliatory measures planned by the school district. The district’s threat to end payments for health care to roughly 500 teachers and other school employees in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic is a brutal attempt to intimidate a growing wave of opposition by educators across the US and internationally to the homicidal school reopening policy of the ruling class. A similar attempt to intimidate school workers took place earlier this month, with a court granting a restraining order requested by local school officials against Dayton, Ohio school bus drivers, who organized a sickout over failed contract talks. The action by CH-UH and Dayton school officials, expose the bipartisan attack on public education. Both Cuyahoga County, where Cleveland Heights is located, and Dayton are dominated by the Democratic Party. Both areas have been hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the Ohio Department of Health, there have been 9,737 COVID-19 cases in Cuyahoga County and 4,344 cases in Montgomery County—where Dayton is located—between November 11 and November 24. On November 18 the Centerville schools outside of Dayton announced they would return to remote only learning after a surge of COVID-19 cases. The department of health has also labeled Cuyahoga a “Level 3 Public Emergency,” meaning the county has a “very high exposure and spread” of the virus. Montgomery County is a “Level 4 Public Emergency,” meaning it has “sever exposure and spread.”

Cleveland Heights Teachers Union calls off strike hours after picket lines are formed -On December 2, the Cleveland Heights Teachers Union (CHTU), American Federation of Teachers (AFT) Local 795, abruptly called off a strike of roughly 500 teachers, counselors, nurses and other school employees just before the work stoppage was slated to begin. The strike had previously been called for school employees in the Cleveland Heights-University Heights (CH-UH) School District, located just outside of Cleveland, Ohio, concerning attempts by the district to impose a concessions contract with a substantial increase in healthcare premiums.On Wednesday morning, many educators in the district set up picket lines, only to be informed hours later that the strike had been cancelled.A joint statement issued by CH-UH Superintendent Elizabeth Kirby, school board President Jodi Sourini and CHTU president Karen Rego stated, “Due to negotiations [between the union and the district] going until 6:30 a.m., some Union members arrived to picket unaware that a tentative agreement was already near completion. We are happy that a strike was averted and students’ education will not be interrupted.”The statement provided no details about the tentative agreement, which must be ratified by the CHTU membership and approved by the Board of Education in order to become the official contract. The members of the CHTU have been working without a contract since June 30.The CHTU is doing everything in its power to ram through what is undoubtedly a sellout contract, with Rego telling The Plain Dealer that the union would hold three meetings “to educate our membership on the offer.” Rego stated that the meetings would take place on December 2 and 3, with the planned vote on the contract taking place on December 3. As of this writing, the outcome of the contract ratification vote has not been announced. While details of the new agreement have not been publicly released, a previous tentative agreement—which was voted down by the CHTU membership in late September—included a hike in healthcare premiums from 6 percent to 15 percent on top of new co-pays and deductibles. According to the CHTU, the increase in premiums would cost between $3,000 and $5,000 for many teachers.

 Cancellations and postponements as disaster in college football continues - The college football season continues into its 14th week in the United States despite having proven to be an absolute disaster. Over 100 college games have been canceled so far this year due to players testing positive for COVID-19. The University of Michigan has canceled its game this upcoming weekend against the University of Maryland. The Detroit Free Press cited an anonymous source close to the team who said that the school has at least 12 positive cases inside its football program. However, the exact number is not certain because the University of Michigan, like many other football programs, is not making their number of positive tests publicly known. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) and his teammates hold up their helmets before an NCAA college football game against Pittsburgh Saturday, Nov. 28, 2020, in Clemson, S.C. (Ken Ruinard/Pool Photo via AP) Michigan Athletic Director Warde Manuel is hoping that the team can return their players to the roster before the upcoming game against their rival, Ohio State. The game between these two schools is one of the highest profile games in college football. Already having canceled two games this season due to COVID-19 outbreaks, Ohio State is one missed game away from being disqualified from the Big Ten championship game. Elsewhere last week, Vanderbilt University brought on Sarah Fuller, a player on the women’s soccer team, to be the football team’s kicker in its matchup against Missouri, which had previously been postponed in October. As was widely reported, Fuller became the first female to play a down in a major conference game. However, less reported was the fact that Fuller was brought onto the roster as an emergency replacement after the special teams unit was decimated by COVID-19-related absences. She is currently the only active kicker on the team’s roster available for this weekend’s game against Georgia. The unseriousness with which the college football establishment is taking the pandemic was demonstrated this week when Kirk Herbstreit, an ESPN college football analyst, baselessly accused Manuel of using COVID-19 as an excuse to avoid playing Ohio State, a team Michigan is predicted to perform poorly against. Manuel denied the claim calling it “ridiculous” and that he was “infuriated by the insinuation that Michigan would do anything other than play a football game.”

Students Want Trump Officials Banned From Harvard University -- Students at Harvard University, one of the most prestigious schools in the country, are calling on school administrators to ban officials with the Trump administration from ever being hired by the school to speak or teach.The students said that anyone affiliated with the Trump administration should be heavily scrutinized before they are even able to step foot on the campus.The students argued that the president’s refusal to concede the election has violated the university’s values.In the letter, they state that “Harvard should stand firm with its stated commitments to a just Harvard and a just world, to free and honest inquiry in the unfettered pursuit of truth, the right to vote, a free and independent press, checks and balances, the peaceful transfer of power, and the rule of law with equal justice for all. We believe that Trump administration officials who failed to live up to that standard have disqualified themselves from being hired by the school as faculty or fellows.”Harvard administrators have not yet responded to the petition.White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany criticized the petition, saying that “Academic communities should be bastions of free speech,” and insisting that she would be willing to walk back onto the campus herself to challenge it.However, the students argue in their letter that they are actually preserving Democratic values by keeping Trump in office.The students say that despite having a variety of different political beliefs on both ends of the spectrum, “We worry that in following tradition and inviting members of the Trump administration to Harvard, the school would be legitimizing this subversion of democratic principles that up to now had been universally accepted by both political parties.”

Young people speak out about the unprecedented collapse in their living conditions since the pandemic began - A majority of the United States’ young adult population has been forced to place its life on hold as the pandemic has erased the opportunity to move out of their parents’ homes or otherwise gain independence. This is the reality that has been exposed by a recent Pew Research Center report showing 52 percent of people between the ages of 18-29 are living at home with their parents. According to the study, this is the highest share of young people living at home since the end of the Great Depression in 1940. As shocking as it is, this number belies the actual social crisis that is hidden beneath it. The psychological impact of the chasm that has opened up between expectations for the future and the objective conditions facing millions of people is reflected by a national survey conducted by researchers from four universities and published this month by the COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding. The survey on mental health conditions for people in Generation Z, or young adults between 18 and 24, is a damning depiction of the mental and psychological destruction being wreaked on this generation. According to the research, about 47.3 percent of young people experienced some sort of depressive symptoms during the last few months. The most common causes for depression seen in this age group are closure of schools (51 percent), working from home (41 percent), and suffering a pay cut. This compares to only 3.4 percent of people in this age group in 2013-2014 reporting suicidal thoughts, anxiety or sleep disruption. “I’ve never been in a situation in my life when I was financially comfortable,” said Dasilva, whom has been forced to live with relatives along with her husband since spring. Prior to the pandemic, Dasilva and her husband were part of the performance industry. However, as live music venues, theatre and other creative arts have been upended, she admits that she has “no idea where I see myself in five years.” In addition to her financial situation, Michigan has once again become hard-hit by the coronavirus. The state ranks ranked eighth in the country with almost 390,000 COVID-19 cases and over 9,500 deaths since March.

Baby born from 27-year-old frozen embryo breaks record - ABC News - Molly Everette Gibson may only be less than one month old, but she has already made history. Weighing 6 pounds, 13 ounces, Molly, who was born on Oct. 26 to parents Tina and Ben Gibson, spent more than 27 years frozen as an embryo before being transferred to her mother's uterus on Feb. 10. The time the embryo spent in frozen preservation set the new known record for the longest-frozen embryo to ever come to birth, according to research staff at the University of Tennessee Preston Medical Library. The previous record was set by her sister, Emma Wren Gibson, who was born in 2017. Emma had been frozen for more than 24 years and both she and her sister were frozen together as embryos, making them full genetic siblings. “When Tina and Ben returned for their sibling transfer, I was thrilled that the remaining two embryos from the donor that resulted in Emma Wren’s birth survived the thaw and developed into two very good quality embryos for their transfer,” said National Embryo Donation Center lab director and embryologist Carol Sommerfelt, who thawed Molly’s embryo. “This definitely reflects on the technology used all those years ago and its ability to preserve the embryos for future use under an indefinite time frame.”

Killing The Future- COVID Madness Will Lead To Half A Million Fewer US Births In 2021 --Research has concluded that the US will experience 500,000 fewer births in 2021, as couples choose not to have children because of the coronavirus fallout. The findings by the Brookings Institute were published last week in the Wall Street Journal, which noted that there will be “between 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births in the U.S. next year, compared with a drop of 44,172 last year.”The numbers equate to a 13% drop from the 3.8 million babies born in 2019.The “analysis, partly based on what happened following the 2007-2009 recession, is that weaker job prospects equate to fewer births,” the report further notes.“Women will have many fewer babies in the short term, and for some of them, a lower total number of children over their lifetimes,” the research, previously previewed in the Summer, noted.The US birthrate is already at its lowest level on record, and according to clinics, there has been a 50% jump in requests for birth control since the beginning of the pandemic, and a 40% increase in requests for Plan B.CDC research notes that the birth rate in the US has been below replacement level since 1971. It is now a problem across all major racial groups including Hispanics, non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and non-Hispanic Asians. All have below replacement birth levels.A recent survey from the Guttmacher Institute discovered that 34% of women able to have babies in the US have made a decision to either delay having a child, or to just have fewer children because of COVID.Analysts say this will have a long and profound impact on the economy for many years to come, as the US could be falling into a so called ‘Fertility trap’ where there are fewer women around to have babies, resulting in smaller families, and low population growth reducing economic growth.

 Music and aerosols: What the research reveals about the performing arts during a pandemic - The question of the conditions under which singers and musicians, especially in larger groups, can perform safely before live audiences has become a pressing problem under conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Music is essential to human life and culture, but there may be no alternative at present but to restrict access to it. Various scientists and researchers have now looked into the problem. A University of Colorado Boulder study began with an apparently unassuming, everyday event: On the evening of March 10, 2020, 61 of the 122 members of the Skagit Valley Chorale met for rehearsals at the Fellowship Hall of a church in Mount Vernon, Skagit County, Washington. At this early date in the pandemic, the Skagit Valley County Health Department had not issued widespread closure of large gatherings or public events. Though the director had emailed choral members and suggested that if they were ill they not attend, an individual who had developed cold-like symptoms three days earlier went to the rehearsal. Subsequently, that person (index case, or “patient zero”) was tested positive for COVID-19. At the time, there were no cases in Skagit Valley County. Necessary contact precautions were taken to include hand sanitization and avoiding handshakes. The rehearsal commenced at 6:30 pm and ended at 9 pm that evening. According to the University of Colorado Boulder study submitted to the journal Indoor Air on June 15, the heating had been turned up to 20 degrees Celsius, and no exterior doors were opened. It was not known if the furnace exchanged outside air. Over the next several days, several members of the chorale began experiencing flu-like symptoms. Among the 61 attendees, there were 53 cases in total, of which 33 were confirmed COVID-19 positive and 20 unconfirmed presumed infected cases. The secondary attack rate ranged from 53 to 87 percent.The authors of the University of Colorado study concluded it was unlikely that fomites or respiratory droplets could have accounted for such an attack rate. The singers had been interviewed and all insisted they had abided by strict contact precautions. Additionally, the index case could not have spent a considerable amount of time near that many people in the limited space of time. The poor air circulation and high respiratory aerosol emissions generated during singing were the main factors for one of the nation’s first super-spreader events. The study was a critical analysis that brought to light the crucial role of aerosol transmission for the transmission of SARS-COV-2 under certain conditions. […]  They wrote in their third summation report that “wind instruments and singing produce aerosols, which vary by instrument as well as intensity. The produced aerosol amount is, on average, similar across all instruments types and singing with the exception of the oboe. Most aerosol is being expelled from the bell of the instruments and from the mouth of the performers. … It appears that if players wear surgical style masks with slits for mouthpiece AND bell covers, aerosol emission is reduced between 60 and 90 percent.”

Less COVID-19 transmission seen in countries with more intense testing -- Lacking vaccines, countries have relied on multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19 transmission. Despite the urging of the World Health Organization (WHO) in March to "test, test, and test," policy makers disagree on on how much testing is optimal. A new study, by Ravindra Prasan Rannan-Eliya and coauthors from the Institute for Health Policy in Colombo, Sri Lanka, uses data from multiple online sources to quantify testing impact on COVID-19 transmissibility in 173 countries and territories (accounting for 99 percent of the world's cases) between March and June 2020. The authors found that among interventions, testing intensity had the greatest influence: a tenfold increase in the ratio of tests to new cases reported reduced average COVID-19 transmission by 9 percent. The authors note that this helps explain why countries such as China, Australia, and New Zealand achieved near elimination of COVID-19 and why lockdowns and other interventions failed to slow spread of the virus in others, such as India and Peru. "Even the wealthiest countries, such as the US, UK, and Qatar, cannot expand testing and tracing fast enough to achieve epidemic control," the authors conclude. "Early and continuous aggressive testing to keep incidence within capacity to test, trace and isolate may be the best implementation of flattening the curve."

Rapid COVID-19 Tests Can Be Useful – But There Are Far Too Few To Put a Dent in the Pandemic - Since September, the Food and Drug Administration has approved seven COVID-19 tests that yield results in 30 minutes or less, offering hope for vast improvements in test access and efficiency throughout the U.S. Most of these are antigen tests that look for viral proteins and can be processed on portable machines or cards. The idea behind these rapid tests is to detect symptomatic, pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic infectious people before they can spread the coronavirus. But despite massive distribution of these tests by federal officials – including to date over 40 millionof 150 million rapid tests ordered from the medical company Abbott – COVID-19 transmission has been surging in every state since early November. This calls into question whether the current influx of rapid tests can actually slow the spread of COVID-19. In some targeted applications – and if people take other precautions including mask wearing and social distancing – rapid tests can be a valuable tool. But the current state of availability and accuracy of these tests greatly limit how effective they are at slowing the spread of the virus in communities.  Rapid antigen tests are an attractive option because in addition to their speed, they are cheap and easy to produce and therefore more broadly available than the more commonly used gold-standard PCR tests in theory. But these attributes come with a trade-off: less diagnostic accuracy. This makes them an excellent candidate for use as a screening tool, though less useful for accurately diagnosing SARS-CoV-2 infection.  One-time testing does not mean that a person can safely travel or mingle without precautions. And while no test is perfectly accurate, there are real questions about the performance of the new rapid tests. A few test manufacturers reported accuracy between 84.0% and 97.6% in individuals who are tested within five days after developing COVID-19 symptoms. There is, however, an apparent gap between the reported performance of these tests and what is achieved in the real world. Anecdotally, these tests seem to miss recent, mild and asymptomatic infections – in fact, rapid tests are authorized by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention only for use in symptomatic COVID-19 patients. And of course, people can still be infected soon after getting tested. For rapid tests to effectively limit spread of the coronavirus, experts suggest that they must beconducted with high frequency– you might miss some cases, but if everyone were getting tested all the time, you would catch a lot of cases too. But even frequent testing is not a panacea. It’s only one part of an approach that must also include social distancing, mask wearing and other precautions.

 U.S. Covid Cases Found as Early as December 2019, Says Study - Testing has found Covid-19 infections in the U.S. in December 2019, according to a study, providing further evidence indicating the coronavirus was spreading globally weeks before the first cases were reported in China. The study published Monday identified 106 infections from 7,389 blood samples collected from donors in nine U.S. states between Dec. 13 and Jan. 17. The samples, collected by the American Red Cross, were sent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for testing to detect if there were antibodies against the virus. “The findings of this report suggest that SARS-CoV-2 infections may have been present in the U.S. in December 2019, earlier than previously recognized,” the paper said. Reports of a mysterious pneumonia spreading in Wuhan, China, first emerged in late December 2019. After multiplying rapidly throughout the city in the following weeks, the disease spread across the globe, with the first U.S. case emerging on Jan. 19. The revelations in the paper by researchers from the CDC reinforce the growing understanding that the coronavirus was silently circulating worldwide earlier than known, and could re-ignite debate over the origins of the pandemic. It’s not the first evidence showing the virus could have existed or infected people outside China before 2020. A patient in France was found to have contracted the virus after being hospitalized with flu-like symptoms at the end of December, contradicting official statistics showing Covid-19 reached the country from people returning from Wuhan at the end of January. The CDC study indicated there were isolated infections in the western part of the U.S. in mid-December. Antibodies were also found in early January in other states before the virus was known to have been introduced to those places.

COVID-19 may have been spreading in the US at least a month before first case was reported, CDC study says The novel coronavirus may have been circulating in the United States undetected weeks before the first case was reported in 2020, a new government study suggests. Study authors came to the conclusion after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found evidence of coronavirus antibodies in blood collected in December 2019, according to the report published Monday in the Clinical Infections Journal.  Researchers analyzed blood donations collected by the American Red Cross from residents in nine states between Dec. 13 and Jan. 17 and found evidence of antibodies in 106 out of 7,389 samples.   Antibodies also were found in 67 blood donations in January from states that didn’t report a widespread outbreak at the time, such as Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.  The first COVID-19 patient was diagnosed Jan. 20 in Washington state, according to the CDC website. However, researchers found antibodies in blood sampled as early as Dec. 13.  “It’s possible that we had low level of prevalence earlier … and it’s not really surprising,” said Gigi Gronvall, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security who was unaffiliated with the study. Experts say the coronavirus could have been in the U.S. before the first case was recorded in January, but it’s also possible serological testing may have picked up a different strain or a different coronavirus altogether.

 Evictions caused nearly 11,000 excess COVID-19 deaths in six months in the US - Researchers from major universities in the US have determined that the lifting of state and local eviction moratoriums earlier this year contributed to an increase in COVID-19 incidence and mortality throughout the country, leading to 433,700 excess infections and an estimated 10,700 excess deaths. The results are a damning indictment of the entire political structure in the US which has allowed thousands of evictions to proceed in states and cities across the country. Unable to guarantee safe housing for all, the demands of the capitalist system, which subordinates all aspects of life to profit making, have resulted in the unnecessary and cruel deaths of thousands of people, while at the same time prolonging and exacerbating the spread of COVID-19. The authors found before moratoriums were lifted, the incidence rate, that is the number of growing cases, and the mortality rate ratios were relatively constant, “suggesting little evidence of pre-existing trends in states that went on to lift their moratoriums.” However once states began allowing evictions to proceed, within ten weeks researchers calculated an increased incidence rate and a mortality rate 1.6 times higher compared to the previous weeks. Within 16 weeks states that had lifted their moratoriums saw an incidence rate 2.1 times higher while mortality jumped even more, 5.4 times higher, leading to thousands of deaths. The study focused on all the states that instituted a moratorium, beginning as early as March 13 and as late as April 30. Only 16 states and D.C. maintained an eviction moratorium for the entire duration of the study, while seven states, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Wyoming, never implemented a state moratorium and thus were excluded from the study. By the time the study concluded, 27 states, with Republican and Democratic governors alike, had lifted their respective moratoriums, leaving the limited federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) eviction moratorium, which began on Sept. 4 and expires on Dec. 31, 2020, as the only safeguard for millions of people who could be facing eviction in the next month. November data from the US Census Bureau estimates that of the 11.5 million adults who live in rental housing, 1 in 6 did not pay rent in October. The authors are unequivocal in their findings: “Lifting eviction moratoriums was associated with increased COVID-19 incidence and mortality in US states, supporting the public health rationale for use of eviction moratoriums to prevent the spread of COVID-19.” The authors noted an increased rate of mortality and incidence over time which they suggest is due to the fact that displacement due to eviction can cause “crowding” as family members move in together or evicted tenants move into homeless shelters, leading to increased infection. The authors hypothesize the increased mortality rate is due to increased homelessness as the result of eviction.

US, UK Say First COVID Vaccinations Expected Before Christmas As New Cases Slow- Live Updates - More US government officials weighed in on the timing for COVID-19 vaccine rollout, which is expected to begin before the end of December, according to Surgeon General Jerome Adams and Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease specialist. Across the US, 153,035 new infections and 1,175 deaths were reported on Saturday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg. The US reported just over 150k new cases on Saturday, even as the number of currently hospitalized patients continued to climb. Over on the West Coast, as LA County enters day 3 of its 3 week lockdown, San Francisco has been moved to the most restrictive tier by California following a jump in coronavirus cases, prompting a slew of new measures across the city. "I don’t know how to be more clear - this is the most dangerous time we’ve faced during this pandemic," San Francisco Mayor London Breed warned. The British government said it hopes to begin its vaccination program before Christmas so long as regulators approve all the shots in time, which regulators expect that they will.  In Germany, where Angela Merkel has warned that recent improvements in COVID-19 numbers simply haven't been enough, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, said cases aren't falling quickly enough to warrant dropping restrictions for the Christmas holiday. Finally, China is revoking import applications from Chilean seafood producer Pesquera Isla Del Rey for one week after a nucleic acid test on the packaging of a batch of frozen crab turned up positive for COVID, according to the General Administration of Customs, who confirmed that in a statement on its website on Saturday. Here's some more COVID news from overnight and Sunday morning:

• Iran’s daily fatalities from Covid-19 fell for a third day to 389, the lowest single-day death toll in four weeks. The number of daily new cases fell to 12,950 overnight from 13,402 yesterday. The country now has 47,875 deaths in 948,749 known infections (Source: Bloomberg).
• The Czech Republic will significantly ease its lockdown restrictions on Thursday after the spread of the coronavirus slowed in the past two weeks. The decision, approved at an extraordinary government meeting on Sunday, will allow shops and restaurants to reopen, although limits on the number of customers and opening hours will remain. The cabinet also agreed to scrap the nighttime curfew on Dec. 3 (Source: Bloomberg).
• Poland registered 11,483 new infections in the last 24 hours, the least since Oct. 26, taking the total number of cases in the country of 38 million to 985,075, the Health Ministry said on Sunday. It also reported 283 new deaths, with total Covid-19 fatalities exceeding 17,000. The government, which shut all schools and reduced traffic in shops earlier this month, allowed shopping malls and furniture stores to reopen as of Nov. 28 (Source: Bloomberg).
• The governor of Colorado, where an estimated one in 41 of the state’s 5.7 million residents carried the Covid-19 virus over the past week, has tested positive and is resting at home. Governor Polis, an early advocate of masks, issued a statement Saturday night saying his partner was also infected. Earlier in the week, the governor of neighboring Wyoming tested positive (Source: Bloomberg).

 Pfizer Slashed Its Original Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout Target After Supply-Chain Obstacles – WSJ --When Pfizer Inc. said last month it expects to ship half the Covid-19 vaccines it had originally planned for this year, the decision highlighted the challenges drug makers face in rapidly building supply chains to meet the high demand.“Scaling up the raw material supply chain took longer than expected,” a company spokeswoman said. “And it’s important to highlight that the outcome of the clinical trial was somewhat later than the initial projection.”  Pfizer still expects to roll out more than a billion doses in 2021 as originally planned. Pfizer and Germany-based partner BioNTech SEhad hoped to roll out 100 million vaccines world-wide by the end of this year, a plan that has now been reduced to 50 million. The U.K. on Wednesday granted emergency-use authorization for the vaccine, becoming the first Western country to start administering doses.The two-shot vaccine also is being reviewed by the Food and Drug Administration in the U.S., where a similar authorization could come later this month and a rollout before the end of the year. The U.S. regulator also is considering a vaccine developed by Cambridge, Mass.-basedModerna Inc. that could begin shipping before Christmas.The doses are among an array of vaccines that have been developed this year as the coronavirus pandemic has raged across much of the world. Authorities estimate nearly 1.5 million people world-wide have died from the virus, including 273,836 in the U.S. as of Dec. 2.Pfizer had its 100-million dose goal in place until mid-November, when it became clear the supply-chain hurdles were too great for the end-of-the-year timeline.  “Some early batches of the raw materials failed to meet the standards. We fixed it, but ran out of time to meet this year’s projected shipments.”Pfizer sources its raw materials from providers in the U.S. and Europe. Scaling up production of these components proved challenging last month as the company awaited the results of its trials, which came in to be 95% effective and well-tolerated in a 44,000-subject trial. Pfizer wouldn’t say where shortfalls over ingredients arose as it ramped up production. Vaccines typically contain materials from suppliers that can include antivirus agents, antiseptic liquids, sterile water and elements of the DNA of the virus itself that won’t cause serious symptoms but trigger the immune system to make antibodies. In a typical vaccination campaign, pharmaceutical companies would wait until their product is approved before buying raw materials, establishing manufacturing lines and setting up supply chains to ship a vaccine. Pfizer has never manufactured a vaccine with technology that uses mRNA, the molecular couriers that carry genetic instructions to cells in the human body, so it has had to scale up production capacity even as research was still under way.“For this one, everything happened simultaneously,” the person familiar with the Pfizer development said. “We started setting up the supply chain in March, while the vaccine was still being developed. That’s totally unprecedented.”

CDC panel says health workers, long-term care residents should get COVID-19 vaccine first - Health workers and residents of long-term care facilities should be at the front of the line to receive the first limited doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, a federal advisory panel formally recommended Tuesday. The specific recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) independent Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) were expected, as the committee has been broadly supportive of giving this demographic access to the vaccine first during recent meetings. The recommendations passed by a vote of 13-1. The recommendations for "phase 1a" will be sent to CDC Director Robert Redfield. If he approves, they will become official CDC guidance. States don't necessarily have to follow the recommendations, but it gives them some guidance ahead of a Friday deadline to submit vaccination distribution plans to the federal government. States also have significant leeway to come up with their own definitions, and even create separate sub-prioritization groups. Committee members said that in determining initial vaccine allocation, they wrestled with questions of justice and expediency, and what they believe is the overall goal of a vaccine. Once the recommendations are adopted, it will mean other high priority groups, like people older than 65, essential workers and those with underlying medical conditions, will have to wait for the second phase, which ACIP has classified as 1b, or later. ACIP is planning to discuss those groups later this month. According to ACIP, there are about 3 million people living in long-term care facilities; about 21 million health care workers; about 53 million senior citizens; about 87 million essential workers; and more than 100 million people with underlying medical conditions. Residents and staff of long-term care facilities, especially nursing homes, accounted for 6 percent of all cases and 39 percent of all deaths in the U.S. ACIP members said they want to prioritize health providers to keep the health care system running, and most jurisdictions said they expect to be able to vaccinate every health worker within three weeks of receiving initial doses. Health providers also have a high rate of vaccine acceptance, and many acute health care facilities have the equipment and expertise to carry out large scale vaccination with a vaccine that requires ultra-cold storage. No vaccine has been authorized for distribution yet, but a Food and Drug Administration advisory panel is set to meet on Dec. 10 to discuss the one manufactured by Pfizer. The agency could issue an emergency authorization within days of the meeting. However, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn has tried to temper expectations even as COVID-19 cases spike nationwide. Nearly 2,000 people are dying every day, and the numbers are expected to increase in the coming weeks. A vaccine authorization normally takes months after an application has been submitted, not weeks. Pfizer filed its application with the agency on Nov. 20. "I want to set the appropriate expectations. I can tell you that I think we believe it should ... be relatively quick afterward, but there could be issues that come up that we have to address," Hahn said during an interview with ABC on Tuesday. "One thing we can't do is promise something that isn't deliverable because of an issue that comes up regarding safety or effectiveness,"

CDC Shortens Recommended COVID Quarantine To 7-10 Days; Cuomo Says 170k COVID Vaccine Doses Headed To NY --The WHO's Mike Ryan is joining the parade of public health officials and world leaders who have warned that the battle against COVID-19 still isn't even close to being over. "We are not going to have sufficient vaccinations in place to prevent a surge in cases for three to six months," Ryan said. The CDC has finally issued the order to shorten the recommended 14-day quarantine period to a 7-10 day span. Officials are convinced that a shorter quarantine span will boost compliance while still minimizing risk, CDC officials said on a call with reporters. December to February is “going to be the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation,” Redfield said at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event, citing the strains being placed on the country’s health-care system. To be clear: The CDC still recommends a 14-day quarantine for anyone who may have been exposed to the virus. Public health officials from NY to NJ to Illinois have reported some disappointing COVID-19 numbers on Wednesday. With hospitalizations in focus, New Jersey, the country's most densely populated state, has reported that hospitalizations have risen 34% in the past two weeks, to 3,287, the most since mid-May. Over the last 24 hours, the state reported an increase of 6%. The state’s 71 acute-care medical centers typically have a total of 12,000 patients at this time of year, according to Kerry McKean Kelly, a spokesperson for the New Jersey Hospital Association. The Garden State usually has capacity for 18,000 acute-care patients and 2,000 in the ICU. Earlier this year, hospitals doubled ICU spaceand added hundreds of beds in field hospitals set up by FEMA. NJ currently has 599 patients in intensive care, with more than half on ventilators. Garden State hospitalizations have risen 34% in the past two weeks, to 3,287, the most since mid-May. During his briefing earlier, NY Gov Andrew Cuomo said the state's first delivery of the Pfizer vaccine - expected to arrive Dec. 15 - will be enough for 170,000 residents. If approved by US regulators, the doses are expected on Dec. 15, he said in a tweet. Earlier, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said during an interview that his company has boxes of the vaccine already loaded into trucks and is ready to go as soon as the FDA hands down that emergency-use approval. Health-care workers in the most high-risk jobs, including nursing homes and emergency rooms. To be effective, experts say the vaccine must cover 75% to 85% of the population, Cuomo said. "That is a tremendously high percentage on every level." Since two doses are needed per patient, Cuomo said the state will receive an additional 170,000 from Pfizer 21 days after the first. Meanwhile, in Illinois, one of the hardest hit states, new cases dropped to 9,757 from 12,542. 

COVID-19 Has Claimed the Lives of 100,000 Long-Term Care Residents and Staff - This week marks a bleak milestone in the pandemic’s effect on residents and staff in long-term care facilities across the country. According to our latest analysis of state-reported data, COVID-19 has claimed the lives of more than 100,000 long-term care facility residents and staff as of the last week in November. This finding comes at a time when public health experts are predicting a surge in cases after holiday gatherings and increased time indoors due to winter weather, which will have ripple effects on hospitals and nursing homes, given the close relationship between community spread and cases in congregate care settings. As the nation braces for the fallout of the holiday, recent data on deaths in long-term care facilities highlight the ongoing disproportionate impact on this high-risk population.  Since the start of the pandemic, 100,033 residents and staff at long-term care facilities have died from COVID-19 as of November 24, 2020, according to state reporting in 49 states plus DC (Figure 1). This is likely an undercount, given that five states have not updated their long-term care death values in over one week (HI, ME, MO, NE, and WV) and Alaska still does not provide data on deaths in these facilities. Figure 1 depicts the increase in long-term care deaths since the start of the pandemic. The increase reflects both an increase in deaths and an increase in the number of states reporting over time. Given the vast differences in state reporting between April and November, data in Figure 1 should be trended with caution. See Data Notes below for more details on this increase in deaths.

1 In 13 Of All US Nursing Home Residents Have Died Of COVID-19 -As of the last week of November, Covid-19 has claimed the lives of more than 100,000 people who live and work in long-term care facilities in the United States, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation's latest analysis of state-reported data.  The following chart depicts the growth in Covid-19 deaths among nursing home residents and staff in the U.S. since April. According tothe Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), 40% of the nation's Covid-19 deaths have occurred in long-term care facilities. "While early action to prevent the spread of coronavirus in long-term care facilities led to strict protocols related to testing, personal protective equipment, and visitor restrictions," KFF pointed out that "several of these measures have been reversed in recent months, and some long-term care facilities continue to report shortages of PPE and staff."  According to physician and public health expert Michael Barnett, 7.7% of the nation's nursing home residents, or one in 13, have now died as a result of Covid-19. "Things have never really gotten better," he tweeted. "Testing is a struggle, PPE and staff are daily challenges."Soon after reaching the "bleak milestone" of 100,000 pandemic deaths in long-term care facilities, which happened on Tuesday, the U.S. on Thursday experienced a new record-high number of coronavirus-related hospitalizations, as Common Dreams reported earlier Friday.   Millions of Americans have passed through airports in the past week, despite the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendation against traveling for Thanksgiving. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, does not expect conditions to improve by Christmas and the New Year. As KFF explained, the predicted "surge in cases after holiday gatherings and increased time indoors due to winter weather... will have ripple effects on hospitals and nursing homes, given the close relationship between community spread and cases in congregate care settings."

OSHA Let Employers Decide Whether to Report Health Care Worker Deaths. Many Didn’t -- As Walter Veal cared for residents at the Ludeman Developmental Center in suburban Chicago, he took it on himself not just to bathe and feed the residents, which was part of the job, but also to cut their hair, run to the store to buy their favorite body wash and barbecue for them on holidays. Even after COVID-19 struck in mid-March and cases began spreading through the government-run facility, which serves nearly 350 adults with developmental disabilities, Walter was determined to go to work, his wife Carlene said.Staff members were struggling to acquire masks and other personal protective equipment at the time, many asking family members for donations and wearing rain ponchos sent by professional baseball teams. All Walter had was a pair of gloves, Carlene said.By mid-May, rumors of some sick residents and staffers had turned into 274 confirmed positive COVID tests, according to the Illinois Department of Human Services COVID tracking site. On May 16, Walter, 53, died of the virus. Three of his colleagues had already passed, according to interviews with Ludeman workers, the deceased employees’ families and union officials.State and federal laws say facilities like Ludeman are required to alert Occupational Safety and Health Administration officials about work-related employee deaths within eight hours. But facility officials did not deem the first staff death on April 13 work-related, so they did not report it. They made the same decision about the second and third deaths. And Walter’s. It’s a pattern that’s emerged across the nation, according to a KHN review of hundreds of worker deaths detailed by family members, colleagues and local, state and federal records. Workplace safety regulators have taken a lenient stance toward employers during the pandemic, giving them broad discretion to decide internally whether to report worker deaths. As a result, scores of deaths were not reported to occupational safety officials from the earliest days of the pandemic through late October.KHN examined more than 240 deaths of health care workers profiled for the Lost on the Frontlineproject and found that employers did not report more than one-third of them to a state or federal OSHA office, many based on internal decisions that the deaths were not work-related — conclusions that were not independently reviewed.

Oregon nurse placed on leave after showing 'cavalier disregard' for COVID-19 protocols in TikTok video - An oncology nurse in Oregon has been placed on administrative leave after posting a video on social media showing disregard for COVID-19 restrictions.In the video, uploaded Friday to TikTok, the nurse, identified by Salem Health hospital officials as Ashley Grames, says she doesn't wear a mask in public outside of work, continues to travel and allows her children to have playdates. Grames' original post, on her account @loveiskind05, has been taken down, but a "duet" recorded by another user includes the original footage. The video shows the nursemocking her coworkers' response to her lack of COVID-19 precautions through a lip-dub of Dr. Seuss's The Grinch from "How the Grinch Stole Christmas." The video sparked controversy and swift outcry in the community. Marion County has had among the highest number of cases in Oregon, and Salem Hospital has been on the Oregon Health Authority's list of workplaces with the highest number of employee-related cases since May. According to the state's latest weekly report, Salem Hospital has the highest employee-related count of any hospital in the state. Salem Health officials addressed the video on Facebook, calling it a "cavalier disregard for the seriousness of the pandemic." They thanked community members who brought the video to their attention. "This one careless statement does not reflect the position of Salem Health or the hardworking and dedicated caregivers who work here," officials said.

Virus Deaths Approach Spring Record Amid Changing U.S. Crisis - On April 15, the United States reached a grim nadir in the pandemic: 2,752 people across the country were reported to have died from Covid-19 that Wednesday, more than on any day before or since. For months, the record stood as a reminder of the pain the coronavirus was inflicting on the nation, and a warning of its deadly potential. But now, after seven desperate months trying to contain the virus, daily deaths are rising sharply and fast approaching that dreadful count again. How the virus kills in America, though, has changed in profound ways. Months of suffering have provided a horrific but valuable education: Doctors and nurses know better how to treat patients who contract the virus and how to prevent severe cases from ending in fatality, and a far smaller proportion of people who catch the virus are dying from it than were in the spring, experts say.  Yet the sheer breadth of the current outbreak means that the cost in lives lost every day is still climbing. More than 170,000 Americans are now testing positive for the virus on an average day, straining hospitals across much of the country, including in many states that had seemed to avoid the worst of the pandemic. More than 1.1 million people tested positive in the past week alone. At the peak of the spring wave in April, about 31,000 new cases were announced each day, though that was a vast undercount because testing capacity was extremely limited. Still, the toll of the virus was an abstraction for many Americans because deaths were concentrated in a handful of states like New York, New Jersey and Louisiana. Now the deaths are scattered widely across the entire nation, and there is hardly a community that has not been affected. On Wednesday, when 2,300 deaths were reported nationwide — the highest toll since May — only three counties reported a toll of more than 20. Forty-four states have set weekly case records and 25 states have set weekly death records in November, as the nation’s death toll has surpassed 264,000 and officials worry that Thanksgiving gatherings may cause infections to spread still more widely in the coming days.

US breaks record for daily COVID-19 hospitalizations - More people were hospitalized for COVID-19 nationwide on Saturday than ever before during the months-long pandemic, with 91,635 patients currently admitted over the virus, data shows.  The new high on Saturday comes after hospitalization numbers dipped the day before for the first time in 30 straight days, according to the COVID Tracking Project. “Hospitalizations have gone up every day since Oct 25 except for [Friday], and [Friday’s] decrease was probably related to holiday data reported on a one-day delay,” the group wrote on Twitter.  In total, the US has reported have been more than 13.3 million cases, including more than 266,000 deaths, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University.  There have been at least 4 million cases so far in the month of November, more than double the previous record of 1.9 million cases set in October, the New York Times reported.  Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday warned that these numbers will continue to skyrocket after millions of Americans traveled for the Thanksgiving holiday.“What we expect unfortunately as we go for the next few weeks into December is a surge superimposed into that surge that we’re already in,” the nation’s top infectious disease expert told NBC anchor Chuck Todd on “Meet the Press.”

COVID-19 cases explode at GM Fort Wayne as UAW abets cover-up - In recent weeks the General Motors Fort Wayne Assembly Plant in northeastern Indiana has seen a rash of COVID-19 cases. Despite the fact that multiple positive cases have been reported in single departments, the company and the United Auto Workers (UAW) are maintaining the threadbare lie that no transmission is taking place within the plant. The situation at Fort Wayne Assembly mirrors what is happening at other auto plants across the US Midwest and South, which are becoming vectors of COVID-19 transmission. Indiana has had 342,000 cases and 5,723 deaths through Monday, according to Johns Hopkins. Allen County, where the FWA plant is located, had 5,229 new cases between November 18 and 28 alone. Fort Wayne Assembly employs over 4,200 workers building the highly profitable GMC Sierra and Chevrolet Silverado light trucks. It is touted by GM as one of its most productive plants, building more than 1,000 trucks a day which typically sell in the $30,000- $50,000 price range. Under pressure from Wall Street and with inventory levels for the Sierra down to 20 days, GM is attempting to maintain three full production shifts using temporary workers—who start at $16.67 an hour—to fill in for those out with COVID-19. Day after day, GM management issues new memos noting COVID-19 cases in the plant that begin with the saccharine claim, “The health and safety of our employees and everyone who enters our facilities is our top priority.” Inevitably, the list of new cases ends with the disclaimer “and all are unrelated to one another.” Management continues to brazenly assert, without challenge from the UAW, that all cases in the plant are being contracted outside of the facility.Management memos obtained by the World Socialist Web Site Autoworker Newsletter document 50 cases in the plant between November 6 and November 23. Eleven cases were reported November 20 alone, indicating the rate of infection is increasing. The cases include four second shift trim employees and two third shift trim employees, a first shift and second shift chassis employee and others from various departments. All, of course, were “unrelated.”

41 people who attended New Orleans swingers convention have COVID-19 - More than 40 people have tested positive for COVID-19 after attending a New Orleans swingers convention, which local officials are now calling a “superspreader event.”   According to The Washington Post, approximately 250 people participated in the event at a New Orleans hotel on Nov. 14. Just more than two weeks later, 41 attendees had contracted the infection.   The outbreak was first reported by NOLA.com on Tuesday after Bob Hannaford, the organizer of the annual Naughty in N'awlins swingers gathering, published a blog post last week admitting organizational failures that likely contributed to the spread. "If I could go back in time, I would not produce this event again," Hannaford wrote. "I wouldn’t do it again if I knew then what I know now. It weighs on me and it will continue to weigh on me until everyone is 100% better." Hannaford noted that while most of the cases were “asymptomatic or very mild,” a “good friend” who attended the event was “hospitalized in serious condition,” although he has since been released. A spokesman for New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D) told the Post that the swingers event was a “very stark example of what can happen when you don’t obey the social distance guidelines.” The gathering was significantly smaller than the 2,000 that attended last year, and Hannaford wrote that event organizers consulted with city and state officials leading up to the event. Hannaford added that more than 50 percent of the attendees had tested positive for antibodies and “many of the rest got tested right before the event.” Attendees were also given wristbands, with one color indicating if the person had antibodies and the other if the person had recently tested negative. Hannaford said that attendees had to either test negative for the coronavirus or prove that they had antibodies, assuming that those carrying coronavirus antibodies were “not contagious.”

California sheriff tests positive for COVID-19 after refusing to enforce state restrictions - A California sheriff tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday after previously refusing to enforce state restrictions aimed at mitigating spread of the infectious disease. The Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office announced on Wednesday that Sheriff Scott Jones received a positive coronavirus test the day prior after developing symptoms late last week. Jones started to have COVID-19 symptoms last Friday after he was exposed to an employee who later tested positive for the virus. “Sheriff Jones’ symptoms started last Friday and were mild, including a fever, congestion, light-headedness, and a headache,” the office said in a release. “He started feeling better Sunday morning, and today has almost no remaining symptoms.” The sheriff is following health official recommendations and self-isolating. His immediate family is waiting to get back their test results and will quarantine. Jones is one of “dozens of Sacramento Sheriff's Office employees who … have contracted the virus,” the department said in a statement, without specifying how many and how the employees contracted the virus. Rodney Grassman, a spokesperson for the sheriff, told The Hill in a statement that Jones is “doing well and has almost no symptoms remaining.” He said he and the sheriff would not give interviews on the test result, saying, “the sheriff is an elected public official so he wanted to share the diagnosis with the public but at the same time this is a medical condition and thus a private matter for the sheriff and his family.” Jones’s positive test comes after the sheriff has declined to enforce several restrictions implemented by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). In November, he said his office would not enforce Newsom’s curfew against nonessential gatherings from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. or dispatch officers to address violations.

Ohio surpasses 5,000 COVID-19 inpatients in hospitals for first time (WJW) — During a press conference today, leaders announced that for the first time there are more than 5,000 COVID-19 inpatients across Ohio’s hospitals.  “There are a lot of concerns about ICU capacity, more hospitals are voicing concerns about their ability to manage so many ICU patients,” Dr. Andy Thomas of the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center said during the press conference. “One of every 3 people on a ventilator has COVID. They’ll crowd out other people who need that care if the numbers continue to rise.”  Before the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, doctors were worried about the rise of hospitalizations in Ohio. And as seen in the chart below, those numbers only continue to rise.  In the last 24 hours, 417 hospitalizations have been reported and 44 ICU admissions.  During today’s press conference, Dr. Thomas recommended that anyone who did get together with family and friends during the Thanksgiving holiday should consider not seeing others for the next handful of days to help curb the spread of the virus.

As Hospitals Fill With COVID Patients, Medical Reinforcements Are Hard to Find -Hospitals in much of the country are trying to cope with unprecedented numbers of COVID-19 patients. As of Monday, 96,039 were hospitalized, an alarming record that far exceeds the two previous peaks in April and July of just under 60,000 inpatients.  But beds and space aren’t the main concern. It’s the workforce. Hospitals are worried staffing levels won’t be able to keep up with demand as doctors, nurses and specialists such as respiratory therapists become exhausted or, worse, infected and sick themselves.The typical workaround for staffing shortages — hiring clinicians from out of town — isn’t the solution anymore, even though it helped ease the strain early in the pandemic, when the first surge of cases was concentrated in a handful of “hot spot” cities such as New York, Detroit, Seattle and New Orleans.Recruiting those temporary reinforcements was also easier in the spring because hospitals outside of the initial hot spots were seeing fewer patients than normal, which led to mass layoffs. That meant many nurses were able — and excited — to catch a flight to another city and help with treatment on the front lines.In many cases, hospitals competed for traveling nurses, and the payment rates for temporary nurses spiked. In April, Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee, had toincrease the pay of some staff nurses, who were making less than newly arrived temporary nurses.  In the spring, nurses who answered the call from beleaguered “hot spot” hospitals weren’t merely able to command higher pay. Some also spoke about how meaningful and gratifying the work felt, trying to save lives in a historic pandemic, or the importance of being present for family members who could not visit loved ones who were sick or dying. For a while, the COVID front remained relatively quiet in Knoxville. Then the fall surge hit. There have been record hospitalizations in Tennessee nearly every day, increasing by 60% in the past month.Health officials report that backup clinicians are becoming much harder to find. Tennessee has built its own field hospitals to handle patient overflows — one is inside the old Commercial Appeal newspaper offices in Memphis, and another occupies two unused floors in Nashville General Hospital. But if they were needed right now, the state would havetrouble finding the doctors and nurses to run them because hospitals are already struggling to staff the beds they have. As patient caseloads reach new highs, record numbers of hospital employees are themselves out sick with COVID-19 or temporarily forced to stop working because they have to quarantine after a possible exposure.“But here’s the kicker,” said Dr. Alex Jahangir, who chairs Nashville’s coronavirus task force. “They’re not getting infected in the hospitals. In fact, hospitals for the most part are fairly safe. They’re getting infected in the community.” Some states, like North Dakota, have already decided to allow COVID-positive nurses to keep working as long as they feel OK, a move that has generated backlash. The nursing shortage is so acute there that some traveling nurse positions posted pay of $8,000 a week. Some retired nurses and doctors were asked to consider returning to the workforce early in the pandemic, and at least 338 who were 65 or older have died of COVID-19.

1 In Every 800 North Dakota Residents Now Dead From Covid  The North Dakota Department of Health confirmed 409 new cases and 27 additional deaths in the state on Monday, bringing the total death toll to 954 out of a population of roughly 762,000, or 0.97 in every 800 residents. Only two weeks ago—reporting the highest Covid-19 mortality rate in the world the week prior—North Dakota surpassed 769 deaths, joining a list now encompassing eight other states (New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Louisiana, Rhode Island, Mississippi and South Dakota) that have seen at least one Covid-19 death per every 1,000 residents. Around 79,661 people have tested positive for the virus in the state, resting North Dakota’s mortality rate at 1.5 deaths per 100,000 people, as of Tuesday. Nonetheless, after raking an average of over 1,000 new cases per day for a large portion of November, North Dakota has become the eighth deadliest state in the pandemic, according to data from Johns Hopkins. That being said, there are positive signs of at least temporary improvement in the state: the number of cases has decreased by 38% over the past two weeks compared to the two weeks prior, while deaths have dipped by 19% and hospitalizations are down 16%. However, this could be jeopardized by an anticipated boost in transmission nationwide due to the holiday season. North Dakota did not institute a mask mandate until November, when the state’s Republican Gov. Doug Burgum—who emphasized the importance of a “light touch” from the government throughout the pandemic—declared that the state’s “situation has changed.” White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx described the North Dakota’s Covid-19 protocols and mask usage as the worst she’d seen anywhere in the country when she visited the month prior. However, despite some opposition in the state, Carnegie Mellon University’s COVIDcast project, which tracks mask usage across the U.S., reports that nearly 90% of North Dakotans are now wearing masks. 25%. That’s how many North Dakotans reported knowing someone who died of Covid-19 in a poll commissioned by the North Dakota Newspaper Association just before the Thanksgiving holiday. 

Anti-Mask Guv’s Grandmother Died in Nursing Home Ravaged by COVID On Monday, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem buried her grandmother, who was among 13 to die over a two-week period at a top-rated nursing home swept by COVID-19.The 98-year-old grandmother, Aldys Arnold, is said by Noem’s office to have tested negative for the virus, though no cause of death was given. The other 12 of the 13 deaths between Nov. 14 and Nov. 28 at the Estelline Nursing Home are described by the administrator, Mike Ward, as “COVID-related.”“All but one,” Ward told The Daily Beast.But one less is still a dozen COVID deaths in a short period in one small facility. The number makes clear the lunacy of Noem’s downplaying of the pandemic and her continued refusal to impose a statewide mask mandate.“I’ve always taken #COVID19 very seriously, but South Dakota trusted our citizens to exercise their personal responsibility to keep themselves and their loved-ones safe,” Noem tweeted back in July.But the report from the Estelline Nursing Home, in a town of the same name, made clear that South Dakotans are anything but safe. Ward confirmed that along with the deaths, all but two of the surviving 38 residents and at least 16 of the staff had tested positive.The two most recent deaths were on Saturday and helped raise the statewide daily total to 54, a record for South Dakota, which has fewer than 1 million people. Noem remained fixated on livelihoods rather than lives and chose to tweet that day about the importance of supporting small businesses by shopping.

December 1 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations -- Note: The data was distorted over the holiday weekend.The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 1,065,594 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 176,751 positive tests.Almost 2,500 US deaths have been reported so far in December (one day!). See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.  This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 16.6% (red line is 7 day average).  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.  Record Hospitalizations (Almost 100,000)

California COVID-19 cases break daily record again - Los Angeles Times - L.A. County on Tuesday reported more than 7,500 new cases — the most in a single day, which the director of public health called “the worst day thus far” of the pandemic. The previous single-day high for all of L.A. County was recorded on Nov. 23, according to The Times’ independent tally, with 6,186 cases. “It will likely not remain the worst day of the pandemic in Los Angeles County. That will be tomorrow, and the next day and the next as cases, hospitalizations and deaths increase,” Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said in a statement. With Tuesday’s tally of 7,532 cases, L.A. County is close to averaging 5,000 coronavirus cases a day over the last week — an astonishing quintupling of the figure from mid-October, when there were only about 1,000 cases a day. Even in the summertime surge, which had been the worst of the pandemic, L.A. County maxed out at about 3,300 cases a day. Hospitalizations have more than tripled since Halloween, when there were about 800 people hospitalized, and surged past 2,400 on Monday. It was the second-consecutive day that the high for hospitalizations in L.A. County has been broken, and a number that’s 9% higher that the peak from the summer wave. The unprecedented spread of infections in this third wave of the pandemic comes as local officials implemented some of the strictest coronavirus-related regulations the county has seen in months, and as state officials warn that even more drastic action, such as a version of a stay-at-home order implemented in the springtime, may be necessary before hospitals are overwhelmed with patients. Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday said Southern California is forecast to run out of intensive care unit capacity by mid- to late December if current trends continued. By Christmas Eve, ICU beds are forecast to be at 107% of capacity across the region. While intensive care treatments have improved since the early days of the pandemic, all bets are off once ICUs are pushed beyond capacity. “If, all of a sudden, you have one nurse taking care of seven patients on ventilators like in New York, the mortality can be astronomical,” said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at UC San Francisco. More alarming, the cases reported Tuesday don’t represent infections that occurred during Thanksgiving. Because of the virus’ incubation period of up to two weeks, transmission that occurred over the holiday will show up in confirmed lab tests by roughly mid-December. That influx could be accompanied by a jump in hospitalizations around Christmas and New Year’s Day, with a bump in deaths by mid-January.

Texas sees record 15,000 new virus cases, hospitalization high for 5th day in row – KVIA -- Texas reported Tuesday a record 15,182 new Covid-19 cases, bringing the total number of cases to 1,184,250, according to the state's coronavirus dashboard.The state also reported 170 new Covid-19-related deaths, bringing the total number of deaths to 21,549.  There are currently 9,047 Covid-19 patients in Texas hospitals, which marks a hospitalization high for the fifth day in a row. In El Paso, hospitalizations actually decreased to 875 patients on Tuesday, which marked the lowest level in over a month.

Michigan sets daily record for COVID-19 deaths -Michigan on Tuesday reported a record 190 deaths tied to COVID-19 and added 5,793 new cases. Of the Tuesday deaths, 30 were identified during a delayed records review, the state said. With the additional records, Tuesday surpassed the previous high for deaths of 164 reached on April 16, at the peak of the pandemic, a day that had no additional reviewed records added. The latest additions bring the state's total of confirmed cases to 366,242 and deaths to 9,324 since the virus was first detected in Michigan in March, according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. Michigan has the fifth-highest number of cases and the fourth-highest number of deaths in the nation in the last seven days, according to the CDC's COVID data tracker. It also has the seventh-highest hospitalization rate and sixth-highest number of COVID patients in the ICU, according to Becker’s Hospital Review. More than 20% of available inpatient beds are filled with COVID patients and state trends for hospitalizations for COVID continue to increase for the past six weeks, the state's Chief Medical Executive Joneigh Khaldun said Tuesday. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer addressed the state Tuesday, telling residents "I'm not going to sugarcoat this, the next couple months are going to be hard." "Too many people traveled for Thanksgiving and we will see our numbers increase, very likely because of it," she said. "They'll coincide with the next big holiday, Christmas. Too many people are considering traveling and I'm reiterating, please don't." The state's health department last month ordered a temporary pause on in-person learning for high schools and colleges, suspension of in-person dining at restaurants and bars, and the closure of bowling alleys, movie theaters and casinos. Under the order, effective through Dec. 8, indoor residential gatherings are limited to two households at any one time. Child care centers, hair salons, retail shops and preschool through eighth-grade schools are still allowed to operate. Parks and outdoor recreation areas will continue to be open, and gatherings of up to 25 people can take place at funerals. Restaurants can offer take-out and outdoor dining, while gyms and pools can be open for individual exercise.

Illinois reports 238 COVID-19 deaths, the most in a single day since the pandemic began - Chicago Tribune -Illinois public health officials reported 238 coronavirus deaths Wednesday, the most in a single day since the pandemic began. The previous high was 191 deaths reported on May 13, during the height of the pandemic’s first wave. The Illinois Department of Public Health initially reported 192 deaths that day, but later revised that number.In all, the state has recorded 12,639 COVID-19 deaths since March. Illinois has averaged 116 fatalities per day over the past week, near the record high of 118 set in the spring and matched a week ago.The state health department said some of the numbers released Wednesday reflect a lag in reporting from the long holiday weekend.But Gov. J.B. Pritzker said that a delay in reporting, which is typical after weekends, doesn’t change the magnitude of the loss or the severity of the pandemic.“We’ll continue to watch these numbers closely in the coming days to have a better picture of our trajectory, but a life lost reported late after a holiday is still a life lost,” Pritzker said at his daily coronavirus news briefing.Officials also reported 9,757 new confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday, bringing the total number of known cases to 748,603 statewide.

Grim Day in U.S. as Covid-19 Deaths and Hospitalizations Set Records - The New York Times -- The United States on Wednesday recorded its single-worst daily death toll since the pandemic began, and on a day when Covid-19 hospitalizations also hit an all-time high, the pace of loss showed no signs of slowing any time soon. Not since spring, during the pandemic’s first peak, were so many deaths reported. The high point then was 2,752 deaths on April 15. On Wednesday it was at least 2,760. Hospitalizations from the virus topped 100,000 — more than double the number at the beginning of November. That is a clear indicator of what the days ahead may look like, experts say. “If you tell me the hospitalizations are up this week, I’ll tell you that several weeks down the road, the deaths will be up,” said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston. For all the similarities to the spring pandemic peak, there are some profound differences. In April, the virus and the deaths were concentrated in New York and New England. Today, the pandemic’s toll is being felt across the country. Still more sobering: The April peak represented the worst moment of spring. It was followed by a decline in deaths as lockdowns were imposed and many Americans altered their behavior. And as staggering as it is, the death toll reported Wednesday appears likely only to worsen, experts say, as the delayed effects of Thanksgiving travel are felt. And many Americans are now weighing how to celebrate Christmas and New Year’s. “This is a much worse situation,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health. “Summer is not going to bail us out. Things are not shut down.” Still, interpreting daily death tolls can be tricky. The figure represents what health authorities report on any given day, not when people actually die. So while the total appeared to dip in the days after Thanksgiving, for example, that most likely meant those doing the tallying had time off, not that fewer people were dying.

US Coronavirus: Hospitals stretched beyond 'reasonable limit' as number of Covid-19 patients reaches 100,000 – CNN --The total number of coronavirus deaths reported in a day set a new record Wednesday and hospitalizations also reached an all-time high, and doctors and nurses across the US are trying to find creative ways to handle the surging number of patients.The numbers are grim. More than 100,200 patients were in US hospitals Wednesday, according to the COVID Tracking Project.There were more than 2,670 deaths reported Wednesday, according to Johns Hopkins University. Those totals have never been higher. The stress on frontline health care workers has never been greater.One county official in Wisconsin told CNN, "Our hospital ICUs and emergency rooms remain stretched beyond any reasonable limit and our healthcare workers as well as our patients need our help." And the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday that these next three months will be "the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation." After they are authorized by the federal government, coronavirus vaccines should help blunt the pandemic, but experts think it won't be until spring before a lot of Americans can get them. Right now, the situation in places like Dane County, Wisconsin, are dire. Dane County Executive Joe Parisi, who told CNN resources are alarmingly stretched thin, said medical facilities are nearing capacity and this was the worst of the pandemic. Dr. David Andes, who is a professor and chief of the Division of Infectious Disease within the Department of Medicine at the University of Wisconsin, said their hospitals are about 98% full. "Our numbers are pretty out of control right now," he said.

US coronavirus hospitalizations surpass 100K for first time --U.S. coronavirus-related hospitalizations on Wednesday surpassed 100,000 for the first time as health officials fear the winter will bring even greater numbers.The COVID Tracking Project documented 100,226 current hospitalizations in the country as of Wednesday – almost a week after the holiday. The record-breaking number also came six days after the U.S. broke 90,000 hospitalizations for the first time on Thanksgiving. Out of the more than 100,000 hospitalized, 19,396 C OVID-19 patients are in the intensive care unit and 6,855 are on a ventilator.South Dakota, Nevada, Indiana, Montana and Nebraska recorded the highest number of patients per capita in hospital beds after the Midwest has endured a spike in COVID-19 cases, according to The Washington Post.The U.S. also documented the highest number of COVID-19 cases confirmed in a single day with 195,695 new cases, leading to The COVID Tracking Project’s total to reach more than 13.7 million cases. Wednesday’s new cases surpasses the seven-day average by almost 35,000 cases.  The country recorded its highest amount of deaths in one day since May with 2,733 new deaths Wednesday. The U.S.’s total has reached more than 264,000 fatalities, according to The COVID Tracking Project’s count.  The record-high of new cases and current hospitalizations comes on the same day that the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfieldpredicted the next three months will be “the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation.”The CDC forecasts that the U.S. could experience another 200,000 COVID-19 deaths in that time period.  The agency had warned Americans not to travel for Thanksgiving and spend the day with people outside of their households a week prior to the holiday. But the days before and after Thanksgiving saw millions of people travel by plane, with Sunday seeing the highest number of passengers since March. Health officials have cautioned that the Thanksgiving gatherings across the country will likely contribute to higher cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks.

Daily Deaths Hit Record as Virus Surge Continues Unabated - Coronavirus deaths are edging higher in the wake of a nationwide surge of new coronavirus cases and a record number of hospitalizations. The U.S. recorded 2,804 deaths Wednesday, the highest daily toll since the pandemic began, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University, and the second day in a row with more than 2,500 reported fatalities. Earlier Thursday, Johns Hopkins’ data showed 3,157 deaths reported Wednesday. That figure was revised down after an error in the number of deaths in Eureka County, Nev., was discovered. Reporting varies by state, and deaths recorded on a day may have happened on a different date. The Thanksgiving holiday was expected to disrupt Covid-19 data reported from counties and states across the country. In general, the reporting of data over the average weekend can cause spikes in reported numbers, as gaps and backlogs of cases are reported. But even with reporting gaps, the seven and 14 day averages, which smooth out irregularities in data, are trending upwards. The seven day average of new deaths in the U.S. nearly doubled to 1,603 on Wednesday from 828 on Nov. 1, reaching its highest level since May 11, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from Johns Hopkins. Health experts project the number will continue to climb, as Thanksgiving gatherings are expected to accelerate the rampant spread of the virus that began earlier this fall. A recent report estimates the daily toll is likely to soar to more than 3,000 by mid-December. The uptick in fatalities comes as the number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 reached a record 100,000, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Illinois and Texas led the nation in fatalities, reporting more than 200 deaths each on Wednesday, Johns Hopkins’ data show. A number of other states--including Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Iowa and Kansas--all recorded their highest number of deaths since the pandemic began. New infections broke the 200,000 mark again on Wednesday with the nation’s most populous states, California and Texas, recording the most daily cases. The daily number of new cases have exceeded 100,000 for 30 days in a row, peaking at above 205,000 cases last Saturday. Nationwide, more than 13.9 million people have been infected with the coronavirus since the pandemic began, and 273,836 have died, according to Johns Hopkins data. More than 64.5 million have been infected globally, and more than 1.49 million have died.

US reports 3,100 COVID-19 deaths in one day, surpassing previous record by 20 percent - The U.S. saw its highest single-day coronavirus death toll to date on Wednesday with 3,157. The number was 20 percent higher than the previous single-day high of 2,603 on April 15, and brings the total U.S. death toll to 273,799, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The record high came the same day new hospitalizations exceeded 100,000 for the first time ever and newly reported infections hit 200,000 for only the second time, according to the COVID Tracking Project. Of those hospitalized, 19,396 were intensive care patients, another new high. These numbers likely do not reflect the number of new infections spurred by Thanksgiving gatherings, The Wall Street Journal noted, since hospitalizations typically come within weeks of the corresponding infections. Meanwhile, numerous states that seemingly flattened their infection curves over the summer have seen surges in recent weeks, including Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. California, another early epicenter of the virus, saw a single-day record of new infections Wednesday with 19,140. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) said Wednesday that the city will exhaust its hospital beds between now and Christmas if current infection rates do not drop. He added that daily infections within the city are three times the rate of early November. "The public health condition of our city is as dire as it was in March in the earliest days of this pandemic," he said, according to CNN. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield warned Wednesday that the winter months would put extreme pressure on the health care system. Public health experts have repeatedly warned cold weather will likely cause infections to surge as people gather inside. "The reality is December and January and February are going to be rough times. I actually believe they're going to be the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation, largely because of the stress that's going to be put on our health care system," Redfield said.

Los Angeles residents ordered to stay home, avoid gatherings: 'Cancel everything' - Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) is calling on residents to stay home for all but essential activities as the city saw its worst coronavirus numbers since the first wave of the pandemic in spring. "My message couldn't be simpler. It's time to hunker down. It's time to cancel everything. And if it isn't essential, don't do it," Garcetti said in a briefing Wednesday afternoon. "Don't meet up with others outside your household. Don't host a gathering. Don't attend a gathering," he added. "And following our targeted safer at home order, if you're able to stay home, stay home." The city revised the order Wednesday to comport with Los Angeles County’s equivalent stay-at-home order, according to ABC7, a Los Angeles-area TV station. The city’s public golf courses, parks and beaches are still open and Angelenos remain free to buy food and seek medical care in person. Under the order, nearly all inessential social gatherings involving people from more than one household are banned, with exceptions for activities like religious services and protests. The county reported 5,987 new cases of the virus Wednesday, down from the record high of 7,593 the previous day. The county said Wednesday that 2,439 people are currently hospitalized.

U.S. tops 14 million Covid-19 cases, sets daily record for deaths, cases and hospitalizations - The United States logged 14 million Covid-19 cases Wednesday just hours after setting three grim records: the highest number of daily deaths, new infections and hospitalizations since the pandemic began.The U.S. reported 2,777 coronavirus-related deaths on Wednesday alone, according to an NBC News tally. The country registered nearly 205,000 new cases of Covid-19 on the same day, a figure that comes just a month after the U.S. single-day record topped 100,000 cases for the first time.Meanwhile, more people than ever are hospitalized. The Covid Tracking Project reported that 100,000 people were hospitalized across the country.  Much of the United States has seen a rise in cases over the last month. In the last two weeks that surge has been most acute in New Mexico, where the percentage of new cases has risen by 109 percent; Arizona, at 90 percent; and California, 75 percent, according to NBC News data.“Cases are rising, hospitalizations are increasing, deaths are increasing. We need to try to bend the curve, stop this exponential increase,” Dr. Henry Walke, the CDC’s Covid-19 incident manager, said during a briefing.Health experts are bracing for a possible surge in travel-related cases following Thanksgiving. Cases stemming from the holiday are likely to be apparent about a week to 10 days later.CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield had a dire prediction for the winter months. "I actually believe they're going to be the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation,” he said.Much like it did before Thanksgiving, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending people that cancel plans to travel for the December holidays.

Alabama adds nearly 4,000 COVID cases, breaks single day record following latest backlog - Alabama added a record 3,928 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, but the Alabama Department of Public Health reports 706 of those are old. But even without those old cases, the state added more than 3,000 cases overnight - a number that would have been a record for new cases in a day without a backlog. It’s the second consecutive day the state has included older cases in its daily update, something that happens when one of the many labs throughout the state is late in sharing its numbers with ADPH. Wednesday’s backlog includes confirmed cases from between Nov. 23 and Nov. 29.  ADPH has a page on its coronavirus dashboard that shows 7-day average by infectious date, but it’s better used as a tool to examine the state’s history with the virus, not where the fight is today. Even without Wednesday’s backlog, Alabama is adding more cases now than it has at any time since the pandemic began. The state’s positivity rate is currently 35 percent - among the highest in the nation. And hospitals are filling up. On Tuesday, ADPH reported a record 1,785 coronavirus patients were being treated in Alabama hospitals. The state also reported 73 new virus deaths on Wednesday, around 20 of which we know to have occurred since the start of November, though that number is likely to go up. It sometimes takes weeks, or longer, for a date to be associated with a virus death. Wednesday’s batch of deaths also includes at least one from as far back as April.  Jefferson County, the most populous county in the state and home to Birmingham, continues to add the most cases in Alabama. A record 688 new cases were reported there on Wednesday, though it’s unclear how many of those, if any, were due to the data backlog. Jefferson County’s 7-day average for new cases broke 400 for the first time Wednesday, and now stands at 403.  No other county was close to the number of cases in Jefferson Wednesday, but three added over 200 cases. Tuscaloosa added 225; Etowah, home of Gadsden, added 213; and Madison, home of Huntsville, added 202. Bibb County, a small county just south of Birmingham, added 20 new deaths to its tally on Wednesday - that’s more than half of its total since the pandemic began. It’s unclear when those deaths actually occurred. Barbour County, in southeast Alabama, reported 18 deaths Wednesday - also more than half its total.

US coronavirus: Covid-19 hospitalizations set another daunting record at 100,667 – CNN - Thursday marked yet another bleak day of the pandemic, with the United States reporting a record high of 100,667 Covid-19 hospitalizations, according to the Covid Tracking Project.  So far, each day this week has brought a new record. More than 2,800 Covid-19 deaths were reported Wednesday in the United States -- the most the country has ever reported in a single day. As of Thursday evening, Johns Hopkins University has reported 203,304 new cases and 2,702 reported deaths for the day. This is the second highest daily report of new cases since the pandemic began.  One-day death totals can draw from delayed reports across several days. Still, recently soaring daily rates of infections and hospitalizations has various expertspredicting the daily death count could regularly surpass 2,000 or 3,000, and perhaps approach 4,000. The country's daily average of Covid-19 deaths across a week is 1,654 -- above its summer high of around 1,130 but lower than the pandemic peak above 2,240 in late April. "By this time next week, we are going to be talking about 3,000 deaths a day -- that's 9/11 every single day," Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a cardiologist and professor of medicine at George Washington University, told CNN on Wednesday.

US virus deaths top 3,100 in a single day for the first time — The United States topped more than 3,100 confirmed coronavirus deaths reported in a single day on Dec. 2, a record high, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Thursday, 3,157 people died from the virus – that’s larger than the number of people who died on Sept. 1This comes as the country approaches more than 14 million confirmed coronavirus cases, and on Wednesday, COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S. exceeded 100,000, according to data from The COVID Tracking Project“The reality is December and January and February are going to be rough times. I actually believe they are going to be the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation,” Dr. Robert Redfield, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Wednesday.Health authorities had warned that the numbers could fluctuate strongly before and after Thanksgiving, as they often do around holidays and weekends. Because of reporting delays, the figures often drop, then rise sharply a few days later as state and local health agencies catch up with the backlog.Still, deaths, hospitalizations and cases in the U.S. have been on a fairly steady rise for weeks, sometimes breaking records for days on end.  Nationwide, the coronavirus is blamed for over 270,000 deaths.

North Carolina reports single-day record for new COVID-19 cases — North Carolina health officials announced a new single-day record for new COVID-19 cases Thursday, as well as another record for hospitalizations.   The Department of Health and Human Services reported 5,637 new cases Thursday and 2,101 hospitalizations due to the coronavirus, both marking single-day records since the pandemic began. So far, 5,410 people have died in North Carolina due to COVID-19. The percentage of positive tests for Wednesday's report was 10.1%.  In total, North Carolina has 377,231 cases statewide. Earlier this week, Gov. Roy Cooper announced the state is preparing for its first shipment of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine. Cooper said the state is expected to get around 84,000 dosages, with health care workers on the front lines getting vaccinated first. WCNC Charlotte's Alex Shabad learned 85,000 dosages are expected to arrive the week of Dec. 14 with Moderna's vaccine expected to arrive by Dec. 21. From there, the state will receive each vaccine weekly.  Secretary of the NCDHHS, Dr. Mandy Cohen calls 5,000 record number of cases reported alarming.   "I am very worried. I know this is a hard time to stay away from family friends but it’s the best way to take personal responsibility and show our care for them.""It may be possible that we need to go backward and everything is on the table. We can all do things right now to slow the spread of this virus. We have to."State health officials announced Thursday that a new pilot program will offer free, rapid COVID-19 testing in all K-12 public schools in North Carolina. The announcement comes as health leaders scramble to find a way to contain the virus in schools. “The point of testing is early identification in people who may be positive so that we can more quickly put in those control measures to prevent spreads through the schools,” said Dr. Elizabeth Tilson.

Coronavirus in Pennsylvania: 11,406 record new cases, 386,837 total as of Dec. 3, 2020  (WHTM) — The Pennsylvania Department of Health today confirmed as of 12:00 a.m., December 3, that there were 11,406 additional positive cases of COVID-19, bringing the statewide total to 386,837. This is the highest daily increase of COVID-19 cases. There are 4,982 individuals hospitalized with COVID-19. Of that number, 1,048 patients are in the intensive care unit with COVID-19. Most of the patients hospitalized are ages 65 or older, and most of the deaths have occurred in patients 65 or older. More data is available here. The trend in the 14-day moving average of number of hospitalized patients per day has increased by nearly 3,500 since the end of September. Statewide percent positivity for the week of November 20 – November 26 stood at 11.7%.  The most accurate daily data is available on the website, with archived data also available. The number of tests administered within the last 7 days between November 26 and December 2 is 381,784 with 47,602 positive cases. There were 67,067 test results reported to the department through 10 p.m., December 2. This is the highest number of test results reported to date.  As of 11:59 p.m. Wednesday, December 2, there were 187 new deaths reported for a total of 10,944 deaths attributed to COVID-19. County-specific information and a statewide map are available on the COVID-19 Data Dashboard.

New COVID Cases Set Record in Mass. With Spike Thursday – For a second consecutive day, Massachusetts health officials have announced a record number of new COVID-19 cases. The Department of Public Health on Thursday announced 6,477 new coronavirus cases, a single-day high since the start of the pandemic. The department noted that its announcement was delayed due to a single laboratory reporting 680 cases prior to Dec. 1. Even without those 680 cases, however, there were far more than the 4,613 new cases confirmed Wednesday, which broke the previous record. Massachusetts also reported 49 more coronavirus deaths. There have now been 10,637 confirmed deaths and 232,264 cases, according to the DPH. Another 237 deaths are considered probably linked to COVID-19. The percentage of coronavirus tests coming back positive, on average, has increased to 5.29%, according to the report.The number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 has increased to 1,324. Of that number, 261 were listed as being in intensive care units and 137 are intubated, according to DPH. Gov. Charlie Baker said Tuesday the first coronavirus vaccines could start arriving in Massachusetts as early as this month, but it will take time to achieve widespread distribution. The first doses will likely be reserved for frontline health care workers, people over the age of 65 or with underlying health conditions, and other essential workers. The state is preparing to submit its final plan for vaccine acceptance and distribution to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control on Friday.

Virus Updates: US Sets Another Daily Deaths Record; Texas Tightens Restrictions –  The United States reported more than 205,000 coronavirus cases on Thursday, the most in a single day since the beginning of the pandemic, according to NBC News. The head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Dr. Robert Redfield warned the next few months of the COVID-19 pandemic will be among "the most difficult in the public health history of this nation" while signing off on a CDC panel's decision to vaccinate health workers and nursing homes first. The Pfizer vaccine could be approved by Dec. 10 or 11, Operation Warp Speed chief science adviser Moncef Slaoui said. Meanwhile, former Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton said Thursday they would get vaccinated on camera to help build confidence in the U.S. that the treatment is safe. The U.S. has recorded more than 14 million coronavirus cases and 274,000 deaths during the pandemic, according to a tally by NBC News.The United States set another daily record for coronavirus-related deaths Thursday. Across the country, 2,802 people died from the virus, according to a tally by NBC News. The previous single-day record was recorded the day before on December 2nd, when the U.S. reported 2,777 deaths. This is the 3rd day in a row that the U.S. has reported more than 2,000 deaths in a day. Dec. 2 marked COVID-19’s deadliest day in the United States so far. The virus claimed at least 2,777 lives in a single day nationwide, with 100,000 people hospitalized and twice that many testing positive in a single...Read mor For at least the next week, many North Texas businesses are now subject immediately to greater restrictions after seven straight days where the percentage of COVID-19 patients in area hospitals has topped 15%, NBC DFW reports. That 7-day mark is the threshold at which Gov. Greg Abbott outlined in executive order GA-32 where counties in Texas' 22 TSAs must rollback reopening restrictions to help alleviate the strain on the healthcare system. To that end, all non-essential businesses, such as restaurants, retail stores, office buildings, manufacturing facilities, gyms and exercise facilities, museums and libraries, must immediately reduce occupancy levels from 75% to 50%. Bars in those TSAs, defined as establishments whose sales are 51% or more derived from alcohol, must also immediately close. Licensed hospitals are required to discontinue elective surgeries.

 States plan for vaccine distribution as daily US virus deaths top 3,100 --States drafted plans Thursday for who will go to the front of the line when the first doses of COVID-19 vaccine become available later this month, as U.S. deaths from the outbreak eclipsed 3,100 in a single day, obliterating the record set last spring. With initial supplies of the vaccine certain to be limited, governors and other state officials are weighing both health and economic concerns in deciding the order in which the shots will be dispensed.States face a Friday deadline to submit requests for doses of the Pfizer vaccine and specify where they should be shipped, and many appear to be heeding nonbinding guidelines adopted this week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to put health care workers and nursing home patients first.But they’re also facing a multitude of decisions about other categories of residents — some specific to their states; some vital to their economies.Colorado’s draft plan, which is being revised, puts ski resort workers who share close quarters in the second phase of vaccine distribution, in recognition of the $6 billion industry’s linchpin role in the state’s economy.In Nevada, where officials have stressed the importance of bringing tourists back to the Las Vegas Strip, authorities initially put nursing home patients in the third phase, behind police officers, teachers, airport operators and retail workers. But they said Wednesday that they would revise that plan to conform to the CDC guidance.In Arkansas, Gov. Asa Hutchinson said health care and long-term care facility workers are the top priority, but the state was still refining who would be included in the next phase. A draft vaccination plan submitted to the CDC in October listed poultry workers along with other essential workers such as teachers, law enforcement and correctional employees in the so-called 1B category.Poultry is a major part of Arkansas’ economy, and nearly 6,000 poultry workers have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began, according to the state Health Department. “We know these workers have been the brunt of large outbreaks not only in our state, but also in other states,” said Dr. Jose Romero, the state’s health secretary and chairman of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. Plans for the vaccine are being rolled out as the surging pandemic swamps U.S. hospitals and leaves nurses and other medical workers shorthanded and burned out. Nationwide, the coronavirus is blamed for more than 275,000 deaths and 14 million confirmed infections.The U.S. recorded 3,157 deaths on Wednesday alone, according to the tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. That’s more than the number of people killed on 9/11 and shattered the old mark of 2,603, set on April 15, when the New York metropolitan area was the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak.The number of Americans in the hospital with the coronavirus likewise hit an all-time high Wednesday at more than 100,000, according to the COVID Tracking Project. The figure has more than doubled over the past month. And new cases per day have begun topping 200,000, by Johns Hopkins’ count.

Immediate action is necessary to save hundreds of thousands of lives! - A tragedy of unprecedented proportions is unfolding in the United States. More than 13,000 people have died over the past week alone, including 2,918 yesterday, the highest daily death toll since the pandemic began. More than 218,000 people tested positive for the virus yesterday, another record. A staggering 283,000 people have died in the United States. At yesterday’s rate, 400,000 people will be dead by the end of this month, and more than 450,000 will be dead by the end of January. The milestone of half a million dead will be reached by the middle of February, without taking into account the expected surge in deaths. Centers for Disease Control Director Robert Redfield said this week that the coming months “are going to be the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation.” In an extraordinary statement, President-elect Joe Biden said Wednesday, “I don’t want to scare anybody here, but understand the facts—we’re likely to lose another 250,000 people dead between now and January.” Biden made this statement with the implication that these deaths are inevitable, as though it were a cosmic event that simply cannot be stopped. He made no proposal for urgent actions to prevent the deaths of a quarter-million people. Indeed, he followed his comment with the declaration: “We no longer have to shut down.” These remarks echoed his statement from last month: “I’m not going to shut down the economy, period.” The president-elect knows full well that the vast majority of these deaths can be prevented by shutting down nonessential production and closing schools in the United States, with full compensation for lost wages. Dr. Michael Osterholm, the most eminent member of Biden’s COVID-19 task force, urgently called for a nationwide shutdown last month, a position that was immediately repudiated by the Biden transition team. Nearly a year into the pandemic, the effectiveness of public health measures is not in dispute. Every country that has closed businesses and schools has had a fall in cases and deaths. And every country that has eased restrictions has had an increase. Even now, if a national closure of nonessential production and schools was ordered, there is no doubt that it would save hundreds of thousands of lives. Yet the entire US political establishment refuses to take the most basic measures necessary to contain the pandemic. Instead of closing businesses and schools, the remaining restrictions are being eliminated, and schools, as in New York City, are being reopened. Instead of providing financial assistance to workers, Congress refuses to provide even the most basic aid for the unemployed.

Deadly COVID-19 outbreaks in two long-term care facilities could be linked to Washington state wedding, officials say - A Washington state wedding last month that hosted more than 300 people may now be linked to deadly coronavirus outbreaks at two long-term care facilities, officials said Friday. The Nov. 7 wedding at a private location near Ritzville, Wash., first gained attention when nearly 40 attendees from the neighboring Grant County had tested positive for COVID-19 within 10 days of the event.  Washington state health guidelines at the time limited wedding ceremonies to 30 people. The Grant County Health District is now saying that staff at two long-term care facilities who attended the wedding, which has been labeled by officials as a “super-spreader” event, contracted the virus. According to ABC News, health officials said that the staff members worked while they were contagious, before they were aware that they were carrying the infection. It was unclear as of Friday how many cases could be traced back to these employees and the event. "They care for all residents so it will not be known which cases are tied to the staff," Grant County Health District administrator Theresa Adkinson told ABC in an email.ABC noted that there have been 54 COVID-19 deaths in the county, including 29 associated with long-term care facilities.  Adkinson added that the department plans to do a "deeper data analysis" once the recent infection surge is better under control.

Coronavirus: California’s record-setting case explosion continues - COVID-19 cases continued to skyrocket on Friday as California counties reported a new single-day record of 22,491 total cases. The state also recorded its highest seven-day case average of 17,819 and tallied 208 deaths, the most in one day since the end of July. An unprecedented, miserable stretch of the pandemic is showing no signs of slowing down as gatherings over the Thanksgiving holiday begin to show up in case counts. There have now been 19,797 COVID-related deaths in California and 1,308,736 cases, according to data compiled by this news organization.As the Bay Area continues to record worrisome case numbers, some major counties on Friday announced they would voluntarily adopt stronger restrictions on public gatherings. California will mandate many of those restrictions for regions where the number of occupied ICU beds surpasses 85% capacity. Together, the 10 counties comprising the Bay Area recorded 2,294 new cases and 23 new deaths. The total number of new cases in the region did recede between Thursday and Friday, with Alameda and Contra Costa counties reporting fewer cases. But Santa Clara County alone reported 844 new cases, topping its previous single-day record set on Nov. 30. It reported 8 new deaths on Friday, one fewer than the day before. San Mateo County, one of the jurisdictions that has not joined other counties in voluntarily implementing tougher restrictions, saw 177 new cases and 6 new deaths. On Thursday, Gov. Gavin Newsom pulled the plug on the previous county-based reopening blueprint, announcing the state will be split into five regions that could each receive fresh stay-at-home orders depending on their ICU bed capacity.

San Francisco mayor orders strict new lockdowns as pandemic spirals  (Reuters) - The mayor of San Francisco on Friday ordered new lockdowns and business restrictions across the Bay Area in the face of the COVID-19 surge, as political leaders nationwide ramp up pressure on Americans to stay home until vaccines can be distributed. The new measures announced by Mayor London Breed, a first-term Democrat, apply across five Bay Area counties and are among the harshest of any major U.S. city, closing all personal services, outdoor dining and most public gatherings. “What we are seeing in our city, our region, our state and our country is a virus that is taking over,” Breed, 46, said in announcing the new clamp down. California Governor Gavin Newsom, also a Democrat, said on Thursday he would impose similar stay-at-home orders statewide, to take effect region-by-region as intensive care beds reach capacity. Breed said she was unwilling to wait for Newsom’s mandate to take effect in the Bay Area, adding: “If you’re not working to stay ahead of this virus you’re falling far, far behind and very quickly.” Starting at 10 p.m. this Sunday, San Francisco will close all outdoor dining, outdoor playgrounds, zoos and aquariums along with other measures, according to a statement on the mayor’s website. “Low contact retail such as pet grooming, electronics or shoe repair services, may only operate in a curbside drop-off context,” the statement read. “All other retail, including grocery stores must reduce capacity to 20%.”

Daily record: 30 new COVID-19 deaths, 1,400 new cases reported by the DHHR - West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources officials reported a record breaking 1,400 new COVID-19 cases in the Mountain State Saturday. It brings the total count to 53,572. DHHR officials also reported a new record of 30 additional COVID-19 related deaths in the state Saturday bringing the death count to 829. The patients were a 67-year old male from Tyler County, a 73-year old male from Cabell County, an 85-year old female from Putnam County, a 62-year old female from Kanawha County, a 65-year old male from Mercer County, an 85-year old female from Kanawha County, a 79-year old male from Mercer County, a 69-year old female from Mineral County, a 68-year old male from Berkeley County, an 84-year old male from Barbour County, a 54-year old male from Fayette County, a 36-year old male from Mingo County, a 51-year old male from Kanawha County, a 76-year old male from Mineral County, a 93-year old female from Mineral County, a 73-year old female from Berkeley County, an 88-year old female Putnam County, a 95-year old female from Kanawha County, a 74-year old female from Fayette County, a 76-year old male from Fayette County, an 84-year old male from Kanawha County, a 75-year old male from Kanawha County, an 80-year old male from Ohio County, an 85-year old female from Putnam County, a 61-year old male from Mineral County, an 84-year old male from Mineral County, an 82-year old female from Preston County, an 83-year old female from Preston County, a 47-year old male from Logan County, and a 63-year old female from Logan County. According to data from DHHR, 641 patients are currently hospitalized. 177 patients are in ICU, and 85 patients are on ventilators.

 New Mexico shut down nearly everything to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed by covid-19. It wasn’t enough. The governor had been sounding the alarm for more than a month. But by mid-November, it was clear to Michelle Lujan Grisham that she would need to take extreme measures to head off the “most serious emergency that New Mexico has ever faced.”With covid-19 cases rising exponentially and hospital beds dwindling, she dragged her state back to the darkest days of spring, when restaurant dining was banned, nonessential businesses were closed and residents were ordered to stay inside unless absolutely necessary.She hoped it might be enough to avert catastrophe this winter.“New Mexico has crushed this virus before — twice,” she told her state’s 2 million citizens. “We’re going to do it again.”Three weeks later, victory remains a distant prospect. Instead, Lujan Grisham (D) is on the verge of acknowledging just how grim conditions have become: She will, she said in an interview, soon allow hospitals to move to “crisis standards,” a move that frees them to ration care depending on a patient’s likelihood of surviving. It is a step that she and other governors have avoided through nine months of battling the pandemic, and one that doctors dread.“That’s a physician’s nightmare,” said Jason Mitchell, chief medical officer at Presbyterian Healthcare Services, one of the state’s largest providers. “We want to save every life we can.”But given the severe strain on medical systems statewide and the lack of available ICU beds as covid hospitalizations near 1,000 statewide, Mitchell said there was likely no other choice.“We’re headed there very quickly,” he said. “There’s no more room at the inn.”The dire state of New Mexico’s covid fight reflects just how pernicious an opponent the coronavirus really is, and how it can outlast or outmaneuver even the most stalwart efforts to keep it in check.New Mexico has consistently won praise among public health experts for its aggressive approach to combating the virus. Lujan Grisham issued a stay-at-home order in March when there were fewer than 100 cases statewide, and she has gone as far as locking down entire cities to stem the spread. A study by Oxford University found that the state’s approach was among the most restrictive — and also the most successful, with New Mexico dodging the spring and summer surges that afflicted so many other states.But with pandemic fatigue growing and political resistance building — including from the White House — New Mexico has not escaped the outbreak raging nationwide this fall. And even though there is evidence that the governor’s November shutdown orders are helping to reduce case numbers, experts say there is only so much good they can do with a virus that zealously exploits any weakness.

US sets new single-day COVID case record as hospitals struggle-  Al Jazeera The United States recorded a new single-day record for COVID-19 cases on Friday, as a countrywide surge in infections has forced several states to reimpose restrictions and pushed healthcare networks to the brink. The US recorded 227,885 new cases on Friday, according to Johns Hopkins University, and 2,011 total deaths linked to the novel coronavirus. To date, more than 14.5 million infections have been confirmed in the country, with more than 280,000 deaths. The latest surge, which comes as the US enters its colder months, has stressed the healthcare system in several states. Officials have warned that increased travelling and gathering during the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26 likely added to the spike.

US sets new daily coronavirus record with nearly 228,000 cases  The United States set a record for daily coronavirus infections on Friday, recording nearly 228,000 new cases. According to data collected by Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. added 227,885 new cases on Friday, passing a previous high of 217,000 set on Thursday. The high mark comes just days after the U.S. surpassed 14 million coronavirus infections and set a new record for single-day coronavirus deaths with 2,879 fatalities. Another 2,607 deaths were reported Friday, and as of Saturday, the overall death toll in the U.S. had reached more than 279,000 since the start of the pandemic, according to Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. set several records in coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths this week as experts warn of a continued surge following Thanksgiving gatherings and related travel. The White House coronavirus task forced warned states that a further rise in cases after the holiday threatens to overwhelm the health care system and compromise patient care. “We are in a very dangerous place due to the current, extremely high COVID baseline and limited hospital capacity; a further post-Thanksgiving surge will compromise COVID patient care, as well as medical care overall,” the task force warned. Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) urged Americans not to travel for Christmas amid fears that gatherings could further spread the virus. The CDC issued similar guidance shortly before Thanksgiving, though travel rates the day before the holiday reached their highest levels since March. The recent surge in cases has prompted several states to impose new restrictions, including a new system in California unveiled by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) this week under which regions would fall under three-week stay-at-home orders if they have less than 15 percent ICU capacity.

US Coronavirus: The country hit a record 7-day average of new Covid-19 cases. And the impacts of Thanksgiving will only make things worse, experts warn - Hospitals across the US are being put under immense pressure as the nation continues to hit record levels of new Covid-19 cases. "We're seeing day-by-day increasing numbers of patients with Covid-19, both those who are a little bit sick and those who are really sick," said Dr. Megan Ranney, a CNN medical analyst and director of the Brown-Lifespan Center for Digital Health at Brown University. "As that happens, our hospitals are filling up, and our workers are getting sick. Our floors are short on techs, on respiratory therapists, on nurses," said Ranney, adding, "We are on the verge of being in a crisis state." Rhode Island's not alone. More than 101,200 Covid-19 patients were in US hospitals on Friday — a record high, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Hospital systems — and health care workers — are approaching their breaking points. "Everywhere we're seeing a surge," said Dr. Carlos del Rio, an infectious disease physician and executive associate dean of Emory University School of Medicine. "And the biggest problem when you have a surge is, it's not the space, it's not the stuff, it's actually the staff. Staff are tired, sick and I'm worried we're running out of staff to take care of patients." Experts fear a potential surge of infections linked to Thanksgiving gatherings that will further stress hospitals and frontline health workers. Dr. Shirlee Xie, a hospitalist and associate director of hospital medicine for Hennepin Healthcare in Minneapolis, said health care workers are "suffocating" in their patients' fear and in their colleagues' exhaustion. "Every single day, thousands more people are getting this virus, and we know that means that in a few days, in a week, hundreds of people are going to be coming to the hospital and hundreds of people are going to die," she told CNN's Ana Cabrera, her voice breaking with emotion. "I think that sometimes when you hear statistics like that, you become numb to what those numbers mean," Xie said. "But for us, the people that are taking care of these patients, every single number is somebody that we have to look at and say, 'I'm sorry, there's nothing more I can do for you.'"

State, local officials plead for vaccine distribution funds - Public health experts say state and local governments are underfunded and unprepared for what is expected to be the largest vaccination campaign in U.S. history. While the Trump administration has spent more than $10 billion supporting the development of COVID-19 vaccines, just $340 million has been allocated to agencies below the federal level to help with distribution efforts that will cost anywhere from $6 billion to $13.3 billion, according to various estimates. Health care workers, nursing home residents and other priority groups could be vaccinated as soon as this month, according to estimates by Trump officials. But the administration has not planned for the subsequent vaccination of hundreds of millions of Americans in the general population next year or how to pay for it. “We knew vaccines would be in development, so it’s not a surprise we would need to build up the deployment system. Now we could be weeks away from the first doses going out, and we really haven’t invested in any of that work,” said Adriane Casalotti, chief of government and public affairs at the National Association of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO). “Things could have been done earlier without having to reach this level of emergency,” she added. “To not have put a single dime toward deployment of it is a real disservice.” The administration’s Operation Warp Speed plans to ship out 6.4 million doses of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine within 24 hours of receiving authorization from the Food and Drug Administration. Federal officials estimate shipments will begin in mid-December, with each state receiving a certain proportion based on its population. Health workers and nursing home residents are likely to be first in line, followed by other essential workers as well as teachers, the elderly and people with underlying health conditions. Members of the general public could begin receiving vaccinations by March, when monthly production is projected to reach as many as 150 million doses. Vaccinating the vast majority of Americans requires at least $8.4 billion in funding for state and local governments, according to estimates from NACCHO, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, and the Association of Immunization Managers. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield previously told Congress about $6 billion would be needed. Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress say they recognize the need for vaccine distribution funding, but negotiations over another COVID-19 relief bill have yet to lead to a deal despite months of sporadic talks. “I’m not getting a sense from Congress that there’s tremendous urgency on this,”

Sicily asks Cuba to send medics as Italy fights second Covid wave - Authorities in Sicily have asked Cuba’s government to send about 60 healthcare workers, including doctors and nurses, to the region as hospitals in the Italian island struggle with a shortage of medical personnel during the second coronavirus wave. The request was filed this week to the Italian embassy in Cuba and refers to intensive care specialists, nurses, anaesthetists, resuscitators, virologists and pneumologists, the Italian newspaper la Repubblica reported. Between March and April this year, Cuban medical teams landed in some of Italy’s worst-hit regions, including Lombardy and Piedmont, to replace overworked Italian professionals. Other medical brigades have fanned out across the world to fight Covid-19 in 20 other countries, from South Africa to Suriname. “The Cuban government has teams of doctors and nurses who are willing to travel to other countries to work, and we asked for their help’’, Renato Costa, Sicily’s Covid-19 emergency commissioner, told la Repubblica. “We know that in recent weeks other regions in Italy have asked Cuba for help, too. We just hope they will come to us first. I am in contact with the embassy, which has welcomed our request.” On 4 November, Rome designated Sicily as an “orange zone”, at high risk, mainly because of the lack of health facilities and beds in intensive care units. There were a further 48 deaths in Sicily on Tuesday; the highest daily toll since the beginning of the pandemic. The Covid second wave has exposed Italy’s shortage of intensive care staff. Many medics have chosen to leave the profession or take early retirement after the trauma experienced in the spring. Italy’s doctors’ federation said that 27 medics had lost their lives within the last 10 days, while 27,000 health workers had become infected over the past month.

76 German nuns positive for COVID in outbreak at convent - At least 76 Catholic nuns have tested positive for COVID-19 amid an outbreak at their convent in Germany, church officials said Tuesday. The Sisters of Saint Francis of the Martyr St. George in Thuine detected the first cases of the coronavirus last week, prompting local health authorities to place the entire monastery under quarantine. So far, the cases have been mild, said the convent’s Mother Superior. “We are grateful that so far nobody is in the hospital,” Sister Maria Cordis Reiker, told the Associated Press. The tests of a further 85 nuns have come back negative. Officials were still awaiting the results of 160 non-clerical employees of the monastery, including kitchen staffers and nurses working at its old age home. The nuns also run several schools, including a boys’ boarding school. Most Catholic nuns in Germany are elderly women, according to the AP, placing them more at risk of serious illness from the virus. Overall in Germany, 13,604 new cases of COVID-19 and 388 deaths were reported on Tuesday, according to the country’s national disease control center.

U.K. Clears Pfizer Covid Vaccine for First Shots Next Week -- The U.K. became the first western country to approve a Covid-19 vaccine, with its regulator clearing Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE’s shot ahead of decisions in the U.S. and European Union. The emergency authorization clears the way for the deployment of a vaccine that Pfizer and its German partner have said is 95% effective in preventing illness. The shot will be available in Britain from next week. “This is going to be one of the biggest civilian projects in history,” Health Secretary Matt Hancock said in a radio interview, with 50 hospitals preparing to administer the vaccine and 800,000 doses ready to be delivered from Belgium. \ The U.K. had signaled it would move swiftly in approving a vaccine, and doctors across the country were put on standby for a possible rollout. For U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the rollout may offer some political respite after eight months of criticism over his pandemic strategy, as Britain’s death toll nears 60,000. “We can see the way out, and we can see that by the spring we are going to be through this,” Hancock said on Sky News.

EU criticises 'hasty' UK approval of COVID-19 vaccine (Reuters) - The European Union criticised Britain’s rapid approval of Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine on Wednesday, saying its own procedure was more thorough, after Britain became the first western country to endorse a COVID-19 shot. The move to grant emergency authorisation to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has been seen by many as a political coup for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has led his country out of the EU and faced criticism for his handling of the pandemic. The decision was made under an ultra-fast, emergency approval process, which allowed the British drugs regulator to temporarily authorise the vaccine only 10 days after it began examining data from large-scale trials. In an unusually blunt statement, the European Medicines Agency (EMA), which is in charge of approving COVID-19 vaccines for the EU, said its longer approval procedure was more appropriate as it was based on more evidence and required more checks than the emergency procedure chosen by Britain. The agency said on Tuesday it would decide by Dec. 29 whether to provisionally authorise the vaccine from U.S. drugmaker Pfizer Inc and its German partner BioNTech SE . A spokesman for the European Commission, the EU executive, said the EMA’s procedure was “the most effective regulatory mechanism to grant all EU citizens’ access to a safe and effective vaccine,” as it was based on more evidence. Pfizer UK Country Manager Ben Osborn said, “We have provided complete data packages, the unblinded data, to both regulators. I think what you’re seeing is just the difference in the underlying process and timelines, as opposed to any difference in data submission.”

Putin says doctors and teachers will get first COVID-19 vaccines in new immunization campaign - Russian president Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered a “large-scale” coronavirus immunization campaign, placing doctors and teachers first in line to receive the Russian-made vaccine. Russia’s vaccine, which has not yet gone through the studies to ensure its safety and effectiveness, was first announced in September. This allowed Russia to become the first country to register a coronavirus vaccine. Putin said his own daughter would be among the early recipients of the vaccine, according to The Associated Press. Russia touted its vaccine, called Sputnik V, and quickly gave it regulatory approval, though health experts criticized this move, noting that it had only been tested on about a dozen people at the time. The Russian leader said over 2 million doses of Sputnik V will be produced in the next few days. “This gives us the opportunity to start if not mass, but large-scale vaccination, and of course, as we agreed, first of all of the two risk groups — doctors and teachers,” said Putin. He appointed Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova to put together a campaign to allow mass vaccinations to begin by the end of next week. The shots will be voluntary and free, according to Golikova. Like Moderna and Pfizer’s vaccines, the vaccine will be administered in two shots. According to Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko, over 100,000 people in Russia have been given the shot already. Medical journal The Lancet reported that participants in the Russian vaccine trials developed antibodies without serious symptoms and said it had a “good safety profile," though further testing was recommended. Putin's announcement came just as the U.K. approved Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine, becoming the first Western country to do so. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Russia has recorded over 2.3 million coronavirus cases and more than 41,000 deaths. The country recorded 589 coronavirus on deaths on Tuesday, the most it has reported since the pandemic began.

Putin orders Russia to begin mass COVID-19 vaccinations  (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian authorities on Wednesday to begin mass voluntary vaccinations against COVID-19 next week as Russia recorded 589 new daily deaths from the coronavirus. Russia will have produced 2 million vaccine doses within the next few days, Putin said. Russia said last month that its Sputnik V jab was 92% effective at protecting people from COVID-19 according to interim results. “Let’s agree on this - you will not report to me next week, but you will start mass vaccination...let’s get to work already,” Putin told Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova. Golikova said large-scale vaccination could begin on a voluntary basis in December. The rise in infections has slowed since reaching a high on Nov. 27, with 25,345 new cases reported on Wednesday. Russia has resisted imposing lockdowns during the second wave of the virus, preferring targeted regional curbs.

Former French President dies after contracting COVID-19 -Former French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing has died at the age of 94 after contracting the coronavirus.Giscard was admitted to hospital in September with respiratory problems before being hospitalized again in November. He died at his home after suffering complications linked to the virus, according to Reuters. Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy paid tribute to Giscard saying he, “worked his whole life to reinforce relations between European nations.”  Giscard lead France from 1974 to 1981 and was credited with modernising the country by allowing divorce by mutual consent and legalizing abortion, Reuters reported. He was the first president to be elected after Charles de Gaulle’s extended time in power.

Forest fires, cars, power plants join list of risk factors for Alzheimer's disease   A new study led by researchers at UC San Francisco has found that among older Americans with cognitive impairment, the greater the air pollution in their neighborhood, the higher the likelihood of amyloid plaques - a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease. The study adds to a body of evidence indicating that pollution from cars, factories, power plants and forest fires joins established dementia risk factors like smoking and diabetes. In the study, which appears in JAMA Neurology on Nov.30, 2020, the researchers looked at the PET scans of more than 18,000 seniors whose average age was 75. The participants had dementia or mild cognitive impairment and lived in zip codes dotted throughout the nation. The researchers found that those in the most polluted areas had a 10 percent increased probability of a PET scan showing amyloid plaques, compared to those in the least polluted areas. When applied to the U.S. population, with an estimated 5.8 million people over 65 with Alzheimer's disease, high exposure to microscopic airborne particles may be implicated in tens of thousands of cases. "This study provides additional evidence to a growing and convergent literature, ranging from animal models to epidemiological studies, that suggests air pollution is a significant risk factor for Alzheimer's disease and dementia," 

Airplane noise at night can trigger cardiovascular death- Most studies on transportation noise and cardiovascular mortality have focused on long-term exposure to noise. These studies demonstrated that chronic noise exposure is a risk factor for cardiovascular mortality. Across Europe, 48,000 cases of ischemic heart disease per year can be attributed to noise exposure, in particular to road traffic noise.  For the first time, a study led by researchers at Swiss TPH found that acute noise from airplanes during the night can trigger cardiovascular deaths within two hours of aircraft noise exposure. The study published today in the peer-reviewed European Heart Journal found that the risk of a cardiovascular death increases by 33% for night-time noise levels between 40 and 50 decibels and 44% for levels above 55 decibels. "We found that aircraft noise contributed to about 800 out of 25,000 cardiovascular deaths that occurred between 2000 and 2015 in the vicinity of Zurich airport. This represents three percent of all observed cardiovascular deaths," said Martin Röösli, corresponding author of the study and Head of the Environmental Exposures and Health unit at Swiss TPH. According to Röösli, the results are similar to the effects that emotions such as anger or excitement have on cardiovascular mortality. "This is not so surprising, as we know night-time noise causes stress and affects sleep," he added. The night-time noise effect was more pronounced in quiet areas with little railway and road traffic background noise and for people living in older houses, which often have less insulation and are thus more noise-prone.

Doctors warn about eye damage from UV lights to kill the coronavirus - People trying to kill the coronavirus with ultraviolet C germicidal lamps may risk painful eye injuries if they aren't careful, a recent study finds. Florida researchers report at least seven cases of patients with UVC damage to the cornea, the eye's outer layer, that left them with burning sensations and sensitivity to light after they used the lamps, according to a report published in Ocular Immunology and Inflammation. "The clear part of the surface of the eye happens to be very susceptible to the wavelength of the light from these lamps," said Dr. Jesse Sengillo, an ophthalmologist at the Bascom Palmer Eye Institute of the University of Miami Health System. The eye damage is "like a sunburn to the cornea," Sengillo said. "It's quite painful, and it takes a couple of days to heal. People often have trouble opening their eyes because they are sensitive to light and their eyes are red and itchy. One patient said, 'My eyes are on fire.'" The burning sensation doesn't occur immediately, so some of the patients didn't realize they had damaged their eyes using UVC lamps hours earlier. People who want to use the lamps should turn them on and then leave the room until it's time to turn them off, Sengillo said. Sengillo suggests that anyone who has eye pain after having used the germicidal lamps see a doctor for ointments to ease the burning sensation and to get antibiotics, because such injuries are susceptible to infection. It's also possible that people might be somewhere that has a UVC lamp and not realize that it could hurt their eyes, Dhaliwal said. "If you enter a room and see a funny-looking light, don't look directly at it, and use eye protection."

 Swallowing alcohol-based hand sanitizer can kill, warns analysis of coroners' reports - Swallowing alcohol-based hand sanitiser can kill, warns an analysis of two such deaths identified in coroners' reports, and published in the journal BMJ Evidence Based Medicine. But the public is largely unaware of the potential safety hazards of this form of hand hygiene, which has become commonplace in homes, hospitals, schools, workplaces and public venues in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, argues the researcher. More needs to be done to protect those at risk of unintentional and intentional swallowing of this chemical, such as children, people with dementia/confusion, and those with mental health issues, urges the researcher, in the first of a series of Coroners' Concerns to Prevent Harms articles published in the journal. Alcohol-based hand sanitisers are available in liquid, gel or foam formulations. They contain 60-95% ethyl alcohol (ethanol) or 70-95% isopropyl alcohol (isopropanol). In the UK alone, alcohol-based hand sanitiser poisonings reported to the National Poisons Information Service (NPIS) rose by 61% between 2019 and 2020, from 155 (January 1 to September 16) to 398 (January 1 to September 14).

 Illegal Tampering by Diesel Pickup Owners Is Worsening Pollution, E.P.A. Says – NYTimes — The owners and operators of more than half a million diesel pickup trucks have been illegally disabling their vehicles’ emissions control technology over the past decade, allowing excess emissions equivalent to 9 million extra trucks on the road, a new federal report has concluded. The practice, described in a report by the Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Civil Enforcement, has echoes of the Volkswagen scandal of 2015, when the automaker was found to have illegally installed devices in millions of diesel passenger cars worldwide — including about half a million in the United States — designed to trick emissions control monitors. But in this case no single corporation is behind the subterfuge; it is the truck owners themselves who are installing illegal devices, which are typically manufactured by small companies. That makes it much more difficult to measure the full scale of the problem, which is believed to affect many more vehicles than the 500,000 or so estimated in the report. In terms of the pollution impact in the United States, “This is far more alarming and widespread than the Volkswagen scandal,” said Drew Kodjak, executive director of the International Council on Clean Transportation, the research group that first alerted the E.P.A. of the illegal Volkswagen technology. “Because these are trucks, the amount of pollution is far, far higher,” he said. The E.P.A. focused just on devices installed in heavy pickup trucks, such as the Chevrolet Silverado and the Dodge Ram 2500, about 15 percent of which appear to have defeat devices installed. But such devices — commercially available and marketed as a way to improve vehicle performance — almost certainly have been installed in millions of other vehicles. The report found “significant amounts of excess air pollution caused by tampering” with diesel pickup truck emissions controls. The technology is essentially an at-home version of the factory-installed “defeat devices” embedded into hundreds of thousands of vehicles in the United States by Volkswagen, which was forced to pay $14.7 billion in the U.S. to settle claims stemming from the scandal. The report said “diesel tuners” will allow the trucks to release more than 570,000 tons of nitrogen dioxide, a pollutant linked to heart and lung disease and premature death, over the lifetime of the vehicles. That is more than ten times the excess nitrogen oxide emissions attributed to the factory-altered Volkswagens sold domestically. The report also found that the altered pickup trucks will emit about 5,000 excess tons of industrial soot, also known as particulate matter, which is linked to respiratory diseases and higher death rates for Covid-19 patients.   “That is an astronomically high level of smog-forming pollution,”  “It’s happening at ground level where people are breathing the fumes. And if the problem extends to other vehicles it’s almost unimaginable what the health impact will be.”

Amphibian die-offs worsened malaria outbreaks in Central America --The global collapse of frogs and other amphibians due to the amphibian chytrid fungus exacerbated malaria outbreaks in Costa Rica and Panama during the 1990s and 2000s, according to new research. The findings provide the first evidence that amphibian population declines have directly affected human health and show how preserving biodiversity can benefit humans as well as local ecosystems. The global spread of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, an extremely virulent fungal pathogen known as amphibian chytrid fungus, has been responsible for massive worldwide die-offs of amphibians since the 1980s. A 2019 study found the fungal disease has played a role in the decline of over 500 amphibian species over the past five decades and presumably caused extinctions of 90 species. The authors of that study referred to the die-offs as "the greatest recorded loss of biodiversity attributable to a disease." Chytrid fungal disease traveled across Costa Rica and Panama from the early 1980s through the 2000s. Both countries experienced large increases in malaria cases following this rolling collapse of amphibian populations. In the new study, researchers investigated whether these malaria outbreaks were connected to the amphibian declines because amphibians eat mosquitoes that transmit the disease. They compared the timing and spatial extent of amphibian die-offs with malaria cases in Costa Rica and Panama at the county level from 1976 to 2016. The researchers found a significant increase in malaria cases in these countries that started immediately after the amphibian die-offs began and peaked 5 to 6 years after. In 1980, there were fewer than 1,000 cases of malaria in the two countries, but cases began to rise in 1990 and peaked at about 7,000 in Costa Rica in the mid-1990s and 5,000 in Panama in the mid-2000s. Malaria cases went back down after this peak, and the researchers suspect this is due to local public health interventions like spraying of insecticides.

Special Report: U.S. air monitors routinely miss pollution - even refinery explosions  (Reuters) - When explosions ripped through a Philadelphia oil refinery last year, the shock waves knocked Felicia Menna’s front door frame out of place. Then came the black smoke. “My throat was closing shut,” recalled Menna, who lives about a mile away. “My nostrils felt like they were on fire.” She went to an emergency room, where doctors put her on a vaporizer device to ease her breathing and treated her with intravenous Benadryl for allergic reactions, according to medical records she provided to Reuters. She was among several dozen people who sought treatment after the blast, according to a neighborhood group that tracked affected residents. One of the explosions was so large that a National Weather Service satellite captured images of the fireball from space. Refinery owner Philadelphia Energy Solutions later told regulators that the blasts released nearly 700,000 pounds of hazardous chemicals, including butane, and about 3,200 pounds of hydrofluoric acid, which can cause fatal lung injury in high concentrations. The incident remains under investigation by the U.S. Chemical Safety Board. Yet the federal air quality index (AQI) score for south Philadelphia showed that day as one of the year’s cleanest, according to data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The score was based on readings from part of the federal network of air quality monitoring devices, which are operated by the city of Philadelphia with oversight from state regulators and the EPA. None recorded any significant pollution. The episode illustrates a much broader failure of the U.S. air-pollution monitoring system, according to a Reuters examination of data from the EPA and independent monitoring organizations, along with interviews with scientists and environmental researchers. The government network of 3,900 monitoring devices nationwide has routinely missed major toxic releases and day-to-day pollution dangers, the data show.

Autumn illnesses including flu up to halved by coronavirus restrictions, says German study - Coronavirus measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing haven’t just helped stop the spread of Covid-19, they’ve also slashed cases of cold weather illnesses by up to 50 per cent, according to new data from Germany. Instances of flu, bronchitis and pneumonia have all significantly decreased in north-eastern Germany, which includes Berlin, according to a study by health insurer AOK Nordost. From September until mid-November, the number of people taking sick days off work due to the flu was halved compared to previous years. Absence due to acute bronchitis fell by more than half, the study found, while sick days as a result of pneumonia and gastrointestinal infections dropped by a third. The authors said this was likely due to ongoing coronavirus restrictions. “The corona protective measures including masks, washing hands and keeping your distance did not prevent the second Covid-19 wave,” said the report. “The rules, however, have at least severely contained the spread of flu and other infectious diseases in the autumn.” The authors also speculated that an increase in flu vaccinations may have also contributed to the decline in infections. The study, which was released on Sunday, took into account more than 63,000 sick leave requests throughout autumn in the north-eastern German states of Berlin, Brandenberg and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The three states are home to just over 7.5 million people. That period includes two weeks of Germany’s ‘lockdown light’, which began in November.

South Korean Duck Farm Suffers Outbreak Of "Highly Pathogenic" H5N8 Bird Flu -As COVID-19 cases slow after reaching a worldwide peak, eliciting a warning from WHO chief Dr. Tedros that people living in hard-hit areas shouldn't get too complacent, a strain of "highly contagious" Avian bird flu has apparently traveled from Europe to South Korea. A few days after an outbreak of bird flu led to a culling of more than 10,000 birds in northern England - though authorities were quick to reassure the public that there was no risk to the food supply - South Korean authorities have discovered an outbreak of a "highly contagious" H5N8 bird flu on a duck farm in the southwestern part of the country.The outbreak, which occurred in the town of Girin-ri, roughly 300 kilometers from Seoul, killed 19,000 ducks.There are six other poultry farms within a radius of three kilometers (1.9 miles) from the farm where the infected ducks were found, and all are being inspected.Nearly 20k ducks died, and some 392k chickens and ducks at a total of six farms were killed, to prevent the spread of the disease, the ministry also said.Authorities have already issued an order to stop any activities at poultry and livestock facilities, while freezing the movement of poultry products across the country for 48 hours. The blockage will last seven days for poultry farms in Jeongeup, as well as for farms within a radius of 10 kilometers from the site of the outbreak 30 days. The national alert level over the spread of bird flu has been raised to a "serious hazard.".The same strain of bird flu emerged in populations in Germany early this year.  It hit several of Europe's largest poultry producers located in Germany and elsewhere. While scientists believe the pathogen - while highly contagious - isn't contagious to humans, at one point scientists in China said the same thing about COVID-19.

Decision Ends Chapter In Hog Farm Disputes  - A pork-producing giant will not get another shot in court to defend itself against a group of Bladen County homeowners whose quality of life suffered at the hands of a former industrial-scale hog farm operation. Judges with the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Virginia, recently affirmed a lower court ruling that holds Murphy-Brown, LLC, a subsidiary of Smithfield Foods, Inc., liable for violating the rights of neighbors of the former hog farm to enjoy their property. Jurors in that 2018 district court case awarded each of the property owners $75,000 in compensatory damages and another $5 million collectively in punitive damages. The latter was subsequently reduced to $2.5 million because North Carolina caps punitive damages to no more than three times the amount of compensatory damages or $250,000, whichever is greater. Circuit Judge Stephanie Thacker ruled in favor of only one of a handful of arguments Smithfield’s lawyers made in their appeal, agreeing that the company’s financial status revealed to jurors should have been limited to Murphy-Brown, not the broader company. Circuit Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson III concurred. Circuit Judge G. Steven Agee dissented with part of Thacker’s opinion. Shortly after the judges rendered the Nov. 19 decision, Smithfield Foods announced it had resolved more than a dozen similar nuisance cases filed by eastern North Carolina residents. Smithfield Foods is owned by Hong Kong-based WH Group Limited. The settlement, the amount of which remains undisclosed, wraps up the remaining 20 of 25 separate lawsuits – there were 500 complaints in all – filed by North Carolinians, mostly people of color, in 2014. Five lawsuits went to trial. The cases have brought to the forefront environmental justice matters in eastern North Carolina’s rural communities that have for years been fighting for the industrial hog farming industry to get away from the lagoon and sprayfield system. “We certainly hope that the pretty clear decision of the judges sends a message to the industry that they need to change their practices,” said Sherri White-Williamson, the North Carolina Conservation Network’s environmental justice policy director. “Environmental justice is very much about not just black and brown communities, but low-income communities that have something in common — politically they are not powerful.”

Toxic 'Forever Chemicals' Were Dropped Over Millions of Acres via Aerial Pesticide, Tests Reveal - A national nonprofit revealed Tuesday that testing commissioned by the group as well as separate analysis conducted by Massachusetts officials show samples of an aerially sprayed pesticide used by the commonwealth and at least 25 other states to control mosquito-borne illnesses contain toxic substances that critics call "forever chemicals." Officially known as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), this group of man-made chemicals — including PFOA, PFOS, and GenX — earned the nickname because they do not break down in the environment and build up in the body. PFAS has been linked to suppressed immune function, cancers, and other health issues. Lawmakers and regulators at various levels of government have worked to clean up drinking water contaminated by PFAS. The newly released results of pesticide testing by Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER) and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MADEP) generated alarm about the effectiveness of such efforts. "In Massachusetts, communities are struggling to remove PFAS from their drinking water supplies, while at the same time, we may be showering them with PFAS from the skies and roads," PEER science policy director Kyla Bennett, a scientist and attorney formerly with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said in a statement Tuesday. "The frightening thing is that we do not know how many insecticides, herbicides, or even disinfectants contain PFAS," added Bennett, who arranged for the testing. "PEER found patents showing chemical companies using PFAS in these products, and recent articles discuss the variety of pesticides that contain PFAS as either an active or an inert ingredient."

Climate Change Is Making Fall Leaves Change Color Sooner -  Throughout the warmer months, trees take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it in complex molecules, releasing oxygen as a byproduct. This, in a nutshell, is the process of photosynthesis. The more photosynthesis, the more carbon is locked away.  We know that carbon dioxide is a major driver of climate change, so the more that can be taken out of the atmosphere by plants, the better. With the warmer climate leading to a longer growing season, some researchers have suggested that more carbon dioxide would be absorbed by trees and other plants than in previous times. But a new study has turned this theory on its head and could have profound effects on how we adapt to climate change. The researchers, led by Deborah Zani at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, studied the degree to which the timing of color changes in autumn tree leaves was determined by the growth of the plant in the preceding spring and summer. Temperature and day length were traditionally accepted as the main determinants of when leaves changed color and fell, leading some scientists to assume that warming temperatures would delay this process until later in the season. Studying deciduous European tree species, including horse chestnut, silver birch and English oak, the authors of the new study recorded how much carbon each tree absorbed per season and how that ultimately affected when the leaves fell. Using data from the Pan European Phenology Project, which has tracked some trees for as long as 65 years, the researchers found in their long-term observational study that as the rate of photosynthesis increased, leaves changed color and fell earlier in the year. For every 10% increase in photosynthetic activity over the spring and summer growing season, trees shed their leaves, on average, eight days earlier. Climate-controlled experiments on five-year-old European beech and Japanese meadowsweet trees suggest what could be behind this unexpected result. In these trials, the trees were exposed to full sun, half shade or full shade. The results show that there is a limit to the amount of photosynthesis that a tree can carry out over a growing season. This research shows that deciduous trees can only absorb a set amount of carbon each year and once that limit is reached, no more can be absorbed. At that point, leaves begin to change color. This limit is set by the availability of nutrients, particularly nitrogen, and the physical structure of the plant itself, particularly the inner vessels which move water and dissolved nutrients around. Nitrogen is a key nutrient which plants need in order to grow, and it's often the amount of available nitrogen that limits total growth.

 Photography campaign shows the grim aftermath of logging in Canada’s fragile forests -- When TJ Watt first stood at the base of a towering western red cedar on Canada’s Pacific coast, the ancient giant was surrounded by thick moss and ferns, and the sounds of a vibrant forest ecosystem.  When he returned a few months later, all that remained was a massive stump, set against a landscape that was unrecognizable. “To come back and see a place that was so magnificent and complex just completely and utterly destroyed is just gut-wrenching,” he said.Watt’s photographs of the forest – and the grim aftermath of logging – are now the centrepiece of a campaign by the Ancient Forest Alliance to capture the impact of clearcutting old growth trees in British Columbia. Despite recent efforts by the province to protect these fragile forests, conservationists say far more is needed to prevent the collapse of ecosystems. Watt has photographed clearcuts in the province for more than a decade with the AFA, but said the “graveyard of stumps” in the Caycuse watershed remains a jarring sight.“We’re in the midst of a global climate environmental crisis yet here in Canada, a first world country, we’re allowing the destruction of some of the most highly endangered old growth forests on the planet,” he said. “A lot of people are shocked that that’s still happening here. It’s not illegal. The government sanctions it.”The AFA estimates that most of the original old-growth forests along the province’s southern coast have been logged commercially. Less than 10% of Vancouver Island’s original old growth forests – where Watt shot his before-and-after series – are protected.Conservation groups have fought for decades to protect some of the oldest trees in the country. Both Watt and Wieting have called on the government to both protect the remaining old growth forests and to help forestry-dependent communities so they can transition away from old growth logging. They also say Indigenous peoples must have a role in protecting and managing the forest. “I’m going to keep taking these ‘before’ photos,” said Watt. “And it’s up to politicians if there’s going to be an ‘after’ shot.”

Deforestation in Amazon Skyrockets to 12-Year High Under Bolsonaro --According to Brazil's space agency (Inpe), deforestation in the Amazon rainforest has surged to its highest level since 2008, the BBC reported.Despite Brazil previously setting a goal of slowing the pace of deforestation to 3,900 sq km annually by 2020, deforestation increased 9.5% from last year, and a total of 11,088 sq km (4,281 sq miles) of rainforest was destroyed from August 2019 to July 2020, according to the news report. That area is just smaller than the state of Connecticut, The New York Times noted.Scientists blame part of this acceleration on far-right Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who was elected on a pro-development promise and took office in Jan. 2019. Bolsonaro encourages agriculture and mining in the world's largest rainforest and has actively introduced policies and bills that open up the forest to loggers, ranchers and mining operations. He has also cut critical funding for federal enforcement agencies that police farmers and loggers breaking environmental laws, the BBC reported.Bolsonaro has simultaneously shunned outside influence from other countries, especially concerning the development of the Amazon. He has been accused of using the coronavirus shutdowns as a smokescreen to promote more deforestation and exploitation of forest resources. He has argued that he wants to develop the forest's resources to lift the area out of poverty, The New York Times reported.As a result, deforestation and forest fires have increased under Bolsonaro's leadership. Fires are often used to clear vegetation from clear-cut areas of the forest to prepare them for illegal cattle-raising and agriculture, the report said. Civil society groups and public prosecutors in Brazil filed lawsuits against the Bolsonaro government to stop deforestation, taking issue with the president's reduction of inspections of exported timber and freezing of climate funds that help preserve the forests when other countries use these to offset their carbon emissions. The rainforest is home to roughly three million species of plants and animals and one million indigenous people, the BBC reported. As habitat is lost, many species could be driven to extinction before they are even discovered. Protected tribal lands serve as a buffer against deforestation, and indigenous tribes survey the land to protect the trees. Their way of life and actual lives are at risk as the forest is cut down.

Drought-driven hunger threatens 1.5 million people in southern Madagascar - About half the population of southern Madagascar or 1.5 million people is suffering from drought-driven hunger, the UN World Food Program (WFP) reported on November 30, 2020. Three straight years of drought have eradicated harvests and hampered people's access to food. "The hunger and malnutrition we're seeing is the result of three years of ruined harvests," said Moumini Ouedraogo, WFP’s Representative in Madagascar. "Families across these drought-afflicted areas are adopting desperate measures simply to survive-- selling precious belongings such as cattle, farm tools, and kitchen utensils," In October, WFP started providing food aid for 320 000 severely food-insecure people in the 10 worst-hit districts, with hot meals for malnourished children and elderly in Amboasary, the epicenter of the crisis. "The situation in the South demands an urgent response. People are left with nothing to eat and we must support them before it is too late, but for that to happen, urgent support from donors is needed now," Ouedraogo added.The current resources can only accommodate 500 000 people through December, so the WFP appealed for 37.5 million dollars to rapidly expand its response, as well as to prevent child malnutrition rates from further worsening. The organization seeks to reach 891 000 people through June 2021. The funds will also be allocated for emergency school feeding so children can continue studying, which WFP noted as the "essential key to a better future." "The latest hunger surge underscores the magnitude of food insecurity across Madagascar, where almost half of the children under five are chronically malnourished, or physically stunted, meaning their brains and bodies may be irreversibly compromised," said WFP.

Plastic contaminants harm sea urchins - Plastics in the ocean can release chemicals that cause deformities in sea urchin larvae, new research shows.   Scientists soaked various plastic samples in seawater then removed the plastic and raised sea urchin embryos in the water.  The study, led by the University of Exeter, found that urchins developed a variety of abnormalities, including deformed skeletons and nervous systems.   These abnormalities were caused by chemicals embedded in the plastics leaching out into the water, rather than the plastics themselves.   The plastic-to-water ratio in the study would only be seen in severely polluted places, but the findings raise questions about the wider impact of plastic contaminants on marine life.

Plastic Fishing Waste Threatens Endangered Wildlife in Ganges River --The most polluted river in the world continues to be exploited through fishing practices that threatenendangered wildlife, new research shows.The Ganges River is a quagmire of raw sewage, toxic waste and overfishing from the crowded cities along its waterway. It is also home to the endangered Ganges river dolphin and the critically endangered three-striped roofed turtle, along with other threatened marine species.As part of the National Geographic Society's "Sea to Source: Ganges" expedition, a study was conducted to understand how much plastic pollution or "ghost" fishing threatens the native wildlife. Fishing nets are common in the river, and entanglements frequently occur.According to interviews conducted with the local fishing community as part of the study, nets and equipment are commonly left in the river. Researchers at the University of Exeter, who gathered data for the study, found disposal systems in short supply."The Ganges River supports some of the world's largest inland fisheries, but no research has been done to assess plastic pollution from this industry, and its impacts on wildlife," said Dr. Sarah Nelms, a postdoctoral associate at the Center for Ecology and Conservation at the University of Exeter, and an author of the study."Ingesting plastic can harm wildlife, but our threat assessment focused on entanglement, which is known to injure and kill a wide range of marine species." "Collection and recycling of nylon 6 has strong potential as a solution because it would cut plastic pollution and provide an income," she said.Plastic pollution in marine and freshwater ecosystems continues on an increasing scale to cause wildlife death. But Professor Koldewey believes behavior changes through this new research could have positive effects. "This is a complex problem that will require multiple solutions – all of which must work for both local communities and wildlife."

Weather Authority: Powerful winds, downpours cause damage, flooding across Delaware Valley -- Severe storms swept across the Delaware Valley prompting several tornado warnings as most of the region was under a tornado watch most of the day Monday. The system packed strong winds and heavy downpours, which led to damage and flooding across the area. Extensive damage was reported in Montgomeryville. A fire captain tells FOX 29 six commercial properties and 16 homes sustained damage. The National Weather Service will be sent to Montgomeryville Tuesday to access the damage to determine if a tornado touched down. A business strip off of Garden Golf Bouvlard near Susan Circle in Montgomeryville sustained extensive damage. Beaver Dam Road at Birdell Road in Honey Brook, Chester County is currently shut down due to flooding. The Honey Brook Fire Company reported their second water rescue of the day on Beaver Dam Road Monday night.

Tornadoes reported in Montco and near Dover; flood warning for Philly and neighboring towns. - Severe thunderstorms, temperatures in the 60s, even tornado watches aren’t all that unusual around here. It’s just that they usually don’t occur on the eve of winter on a day when the weakening sun sets at 4:36 p.m. But in these strange times on the earth and in the air, a tornado touched down Monday afternoon near Dover, Del., the National Weather Service confirmed, and possibly at least one twister in Montgomery County. The temperature soared to 67 on strong south winds, about where it should be on April 25, when the sun is gaining power, the days are lengthening, and severe thunderstorms would be part of the cost of allowing spring to do its business. Yet, on the day before the start of the meteorological winter, potent thunderstorms flashed and roared through the region with a ferocity more associated with the spring severe storm season. “The intensity of the thunderstorms was very impressive,” said John Feerick, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. In addition to the Delaware twister, a “radar indicated” tornado might have touched down near Lansdale, and a “possible tornado” ripped up multiple trees in Trappe, about 14 miles away. The Delaware tornado was sighted 14 miles west of Dover, and hours before the strong thunderstorms developed, several wind gusts of 50 mph were reported near the Jersey Shore and in Montgomery County. Monday’s fitful downpours set off flood advisories and warnings on both sides of the river and in Delaware. Flooding reportedly closed a portion of Route 29, and in Pottstown, water swamped a car up to its roof at Myrtle and Buttonwood Streets, according to reports. A strong storm that was moving southwest to northeast across the Tennessee Valley and well to the west of the Philadelphia region “pulled up a lot of mild air really quickly,” Since Philadelphia was to the east of the storm’s center, the region experienced warming winds from the south as part of the storm’s counterclockwise circulation. Cold air aloft and the milder air below generated volatility to the atmosphere, Feerick said, and the Storm Prediction Center said that conditions were ripe for spinning up “damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.” That prompted a tornado watch for the whole region from about 1 to 7 p.m.  

2 Tornado warnings issued in New Jersey --Two Tornado warnings were briefly issued for New Jersey as a powerful storm impacts the state with heavy rain and gusty winds. The warnings were in addition to less severe tornado watches in several counties. Both warnings have since been cancelled. The tornado watch remained in effect until 7 p.m. One warning was for south central Hunterdon County until 4:30 p.m. for a storm located in Lansdale, Pennsylvania, moving northeast at 50 mph. The second warning was for northwestern Cumberland County and south central Salem County until 4:15 p.m. for a a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado, located 11 miles north of Dover Delaware and moving northeast at 35 mph. The watch issued by the National Weather Service is in effect for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Salem and Somerset counties. Chief Meteorologist Dan Zarrow said that while the steady rain and strong ambient winds are wrapping up, we still face some gusty thunderstorms this afternoon. "Dangerous weather, up to and including a tornado, are possible," Zarrow said. 

 Major storm hits U.S. East Coast, leaving more than 230 000 customers without power -A powerful storm swept through the U.S. East Coast on Monday, November 30, 2020, leaving more than 230 000 customers without power in the region. The storm system brought damaging winds and heavy rains, downing multiple trees and power lines and producing several tornadoes.Most of the affected customers affected were in Maine, where more than 100 000 lost power, followed by Massachusetts with 47 000 affected customers, Rhode Island with 32 000, Connecticut with 28 000, and New York 23 000. The Storm Prediction Center received around 60 reports of wind damage to trees, power poles, and wires.In Maine, wind gusts close to 96 km/h (60 mph) downed multiple trees in Durham, Lisbon, Woolwich, and Bar Harbor, among other places. As of Tuesday, December 1, about 102 000 people remain without power in the state, according to poweroutage.us.The National Weather Service (NWS) issued a high-wind warning for southern Maine effective until Tuesday."People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive," the NWS said.In Massachusetts, multiple crashes occurred due to wet and slippery roads, with one which resulted in a punctured fuel tank and spill. No serious injuries were reported, according to the State Police. As powerful winds continued, authorities advised people to secure any loose outdoor items and prepare emergency lights in case of prolonged outages.

North-eastern US braced for snow in storm that could become 'bomb cyclone' - The north-eastern US was braced for disruption on Saturday as the first big wintry storm of the season began dropping what forecasters said could be more than a foot of wet, heavy snow, making travel treacherous and cutting off power to thousands. Gale warnings were in effect for the US coast north from the Carolinas. CNN reported that the storm could intensify fast enough to become a dramatically named “bomb cyclone”, a phenomenon characterised by a rapid pressure drop and increased precipitation and winds. In New England, morning rain gave way to snow in the afternoon. Accidents littered the Massachusetts Turnpike, where speed limits were reduced to 40mph. Massachusetts and New Hampshire utilities reported thousands of customers without power. Forecasters warned the windy nor’easter could result in near-blizzard conditions and could dump a foot of snow on suburban Boston. In Canada, southern Quebec and New Brunswick also expected a wallop. Police in Connecticut urged drivers to be careful. “Troopers are responding to accidents all over the state,” state police tweeted. “We ask motorists, if they can stay home please do. And if you have to go out please drive slow and ditch all distractions.” Unitil, an electric and gas utility in New England, reported that crews stood ready to respond to power outages. “The chief hazards with the current forecast include hazardous driving conditions in the early hours, the volume of wet snow forecasted to fall and possible gusty winds in coastal areas,” said spokesman Alec O’Meara. In some areas, snowfall of 3in per hour was possible, said National Weather Service meteorologist Michael Clair in Gray, Maine. “This is the first big one,” Clair said of the beginning of the winter season. “There has been some snow up in the mountains, but this is the first one across where most people live.”

Power Cuts Begin in California as High Winds Risk New Fires  - Power shutoffs that could ultimately affect more than 1 million people in Southern California began Wednesday morning as high winds raised the risk of live wires sparking wildfires. Edison International’s Southern California Edison cut electricity to 9,313 homes and businesses as of 6:49 p.m. local time, mainly in Ventura County and also in Kern, Los Angeles, Riverside counties, according to its website. The utility has warned it could shut power to a total of more than 272,000 customer accounts in eight counties, or about 816,000 people based on the size of the average household. That would constitute the region’s largest public-safety blackout this year. Dry winds strong enough to knock down power lines are forecast to rattle Southern California through Thursday, exposing more than 6.4 million people to critical fire weather, according to the National Weather Service and the U.S. Storm Prediction Center. “If fires do start they will have a pretty dangerous spread,” said Marc Chenard, a senior branch forecaster at the center. The danger isn’t just the immediate conditions, but the prolonged dryness that has plagued the area and turned trees, grasses and shrubs into fuel. Red flag fire warnings are posted in and around Los Angeles County as the threat grows.

Widespread, damaging floods hit Sao Paulo after a month's worth of rain in one hour, Brazil - Extensive flooding submerged the city of Sao Carlos in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Thursday, November 26, 2020, resulting in damage to properties and hundreds of rescues that prompted authorities to declare a state of emergency. Up to 138 mm (5.4 inches) of rain fell in less than an hour, which is nearly equivalent to the average November rainfall of 146 mm (5.7 inches). Intense rainfall triggered widespread floods in Sao Carlos, turning streets into rivers. Raging floodwaters dragged away vehicles and caused damage to properties. Initial surveys reported that at least 100 businesses were flooded and suffered damages and 26 vehicles were swept away by the current. At least 150 people had to be rescued by the Fire Department. Two boats and five emergency vehicles were deployed, as well as 15 personnel in affected areas, mainly in commercial establishments and vehicles trapped in flooded streets. A task force was deployed to address the aftermath of the storm, according to the director of civil defense of the state, Col. Rodrigo Quintino, who said the losses were very large. He also noted that up to 138 mm (5.4 inches) of rain fell in about 50 minutes-- a volume that's almost equivalent to the average rainfall for the month of November of 146 mm (5.6 inches). "As determined by Governor João Doria, the State Civil Defense provided immediate support to the municipality, initially assisting the people who needed to be rescued during the flood," Quintino stated. State technicians were ordered to support the Civil Defense in necessary assessments until normality is restored. A state of emergency has been declared for the city on Saturday, November 28.

Massive floods claim 3 lives in Sardinia, rare tornado hits Catania, Italy - At least three people lost their lives while two others remain missing after severe storms hit the Italian island of Sardinia, triggering massive floods and landslides on Friday and Saturday, November 27 and 28, 2020. Meanwhile, a rare November tornado caused damage to Catania Airport in Sicily on Saturday, November 28.Severe storms have battered Sardinia for two days in a row, causing flooding and landslides in several areas that left three people dead in Bitti and two others missing. The victims lost their lives in mudslides and raging floodwaters.In Cagliari, strong winds downed many trees while at Poetto, the coast was completely submerged by floodwaters reaching the height of kiosks. As of Sunday, November 29, a red alert has been issued by the Civil Protection as officials prepared necessary precautions, warning residents door-to-door, and closing establishments from Cagliari to Olbia. Several dams on the island had to discharge water to avoid overflowing. Residents in nearby settlements have been advised to avoid downstream areas.  "The red alert was in effect for two days in eastern Sardinia. Also for Bitti, we have alerted all the first citizens in a widespread manner," said Antonio Belloi of the Civil Protection. "The mayor of Bitti was very prompt in his response; he managed the flood of 2013," Belloi noted. The current flooding was reminiscent of Cyclone Cleopatra that hit the region seven years ago, killing 18 people.

Widespread flooding hits Kuwait after 6 months' worth of rain in several days - Heavy rains have fallen over the past few days in Kuwait, resulting in flooded roads, schools, homes, and hospitals. Al Sabriya received the highest amount of rain -- around 134 mm (5.2 inches) or about six times the average rain for the month of November. Heavy rains have been affecting the country over the past few days, from Jahra to Salwa, clogging manholes and forcing authorities to activate an emergency plan. Homes, schools, and hospitals were damaged during the storm, while many motorists had to brave the flooded roads. In Jahra, many trees were downed across main streets, prompting several drivers to volunteer to remove them, despite intense rains still pouring. Firefighters alerted stations in case of emergency, while the Public Relations and Information Department advised citizens to take extra precautions and be vigilant. Al Sabriya, an area in northern Kuwait, recorded the highest amount of rainfall -- 134 mm (5.2 inches) in several days. This is more than 6 months of its November rain (20.3 mm (0.8 inches)). The Assistant Undersecretary for the Electrical Distribution Networks Sector, Mutlaq Al Otaibi, reported that there were a total of 50 outages across the country in just a few hours. The Ministry of Education advised teachers and staff at schools to stay at home until the situation improves.

 Severe floods hit Sumatra, damaging thousands of homes and affecting more than 26 000 people - Thousands of homes have been damaged and more than 26 000 people affected by severe floods in the Serdang Bedagai Regency of North Sumatra, Indonesia over the past couple of weeks. Floods in the region began mid-November and worsened on November 23. The worst affected city was Tebing Tinggi, with authorities describing the floods there as the worst in history. Among the affected sub-districts are Sei Bamban, Sei Rampah, Dolok Masihul, and Sipispis, according to Indonesia’s disaster management agency BNPB. Up to 26 680 people were left suffering from inundations. Tebing Tinggi has been hit the worst as torrential rainfall since Friday, November 27, caused the Padang River to overflow, submerging houses and streets. The water had not receded by Sunday, November 30. The city government reported that 6 663 houses have been damaged in the city. North Sumatra Governor Edy Rahmayadi added that heavy rainfall destroyed up to 50 m (164 feet) of the Padang River's embankments, flooding the Tanjung Marulak area. "This is the largest flood that has occurred in Tebing Tinggi," Edy remarked. No fatalities were reported.

Extreme rain causes deadly flooding in central Vietnam -Heavy rains during the past few days have flooded Vietnam's central and central highland regions, leaving at least five people dead and more than 5 600 displaced. Between November 28 and December 1, up to 986 mm (39 inches) of rain has been recorded, according to Vietnam’s Disaster Management Agency (VNDMA)Heavy rains damaged at least eight houses and flooded 180 others, while landslides also hit several roads in many provinces, including Khanh Hoa, Dak Lak, and Quang Nam, the worst-hit area, the country's Central Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Controlreported Wednesday, December 2.In a period of four days, Ho Am Chua Lake in Khanh Hoa province recorded up to 820 mm (32 inches) of rain, while Tam Tra in Quang Nam recorded 986 mm (39 inches), the VNDMA said.Four fatalities were reported in Khan Hoa, while around 2 574 people were evacuated from their homes. Many of the affected people were in the coastal town of Nha Trang, where floodwaters reached up to 0.5 m (1.6 feet) as of Tuesday, December 1.In the Central Highlands province of Lam Dong, one person died while another is still missing. Around 45 people were evacuated from their residences in Dak Lak.In Quang Nam Province, including the provincial capital Tam Ky, severe flooding forced a total of 1 993 people to evacuate, while a further 1 062 others were also displaced in Quang Ngai.  From October to November, widespread flooding from successive storms ravaged the country's central provinces. As of late November, the UN reported that at least 239 people were dead or missing and around 1.5 million were directly affected.

Worst flood in 50 years affects more than 500 000 people in southern Thailand -- (videos) Widespread, severe flooding has killed at least nine people and affected 210 000 households or more than half a million people in southern Thailand, officials reported Friday, December 4, 2020, describing the situation as the worst they have seen in 50 years. A state of emergency has been declared for Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, where all the fatalities occurred. Thailand's Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) said another person reportedly went missing. The youngest victim was a child aged five. DDPM added that the affected provinces are Surat Thani, Phatthalung, Trang, Songkhla, Pattani, Narathiwat, and the worst-hit, Nakhon Si Thammarat, where all nine deaths occurred and a state of emergency has been declared. The extent of the damage has yet to be confirmed, but reports said scores of houses have been damaged, affecting half a million people. Flooding also ravaged almost 150 000 ha (370 000 acres) of farmland. The main airport remains open to flight but was reportedly engulfed in floodwaters. Military vehicles were ferrying passengers to the terminal. Meanwhile, the State Railway of Thailand said train services, particularly those running through the waters, would have to be canceled until the flood recedes. "This year is the worst we’ve seen here in 50 years," Nakhon Si Thammarat governor Kraisorn Visitwong told AFP."We’ve had floods in certain parts of our province every year, but never this volume and the currents never this strong. We can’t even use our boats."The Ministry of Finance assured that damages to residences, livestock, agriculture, careers, livelihoods, and infrastructure would be covered by the ministry.The flooding came as heavy rains poured last week. It worsened the current situation of the region that has already been suffering from critical flood conditions from a series of depressions that hit Thailand since early October. This has generated water runoff in 35 provinces. Severe weather is forecast to continue over the coming days as a powerful monsoon is prevailing over the Gulf of Thailand while a low-pressure system still covers the Strait of Malacca.

6 people missing after Alaska landslides, at least 4 homes destroyed - Six people are missing and at least four houses have been destroyed after a series of landslides hit Haines, Alaska, Wednesday afternoon, authorities said.Several slides occurred during the day. The largest, in Battery Hill, was about 600 feet wide and trapped about 30 people. The victims were soon evacuated, Haines Borough Mayor Douglas Olerud told The Associated Press. As of Wednesday night, there are approximately 9 feet of mud and trees covering the area where the houses were destroyed, according to theAlaska Department of Public Safety.Search and rescue operations were suspended for the evening due to rumbling unstable ground. Juneau's Alaska Wildlife Troopers, Alaska State Troopers, Juneau Mountain Rescue, SEADOGS, and Capital City Fire Department medics will be departing Thursday morning on an Army Guard helicopter to assist in the rescue efforts. Due to severe turbulence, they were not able to visit the area Wednesday.On Wednesday, the mayor issued a declaration of emergency due to the severe flooding in the area caused by a winter storm. The declaration states that due to heavy rain and snow, several roads are flooded and impassable and there was significant infrastructure loss due to the deterioration and collapse of roads. "Several Haines Borough residents have lost their homes both due to flooding and mud slides," Olerud's declaration states. Due to the declaration of emergency, the town closed its school and non-essential businesses.

Rising flood risk threatens scant supply of low-cost U.S. homes (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Rising seas linked to climate change are expected to triple the amount of affordable housing at risk from flooding in U.S. coastal areas within three decades, exacerbating a nationwide shortage of low-cost homes, research showed on Tuesday. About 25,000 homes could flood at least once a year by 2050, according to first-time national estimates from the nonprofits Climate Central and the National Housing Trust, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. The findings are especially concerning given that the country already faces a shortfall of 7 million affordable units, said co-author Todd Nedwick, a policy director at the National Housing Trust. "Even before we talk about making these buildings more resilient, we don't have the resources to increase the supply, so I hope this helps spotlight the need for investments in these at-risk communities," he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. The researchers looked at risk from extreme weather events such as hurricanes but also at increasingly common "sunny-day" flooding caused by higher sea levels. Heightened risks will take a heavy toll on known hot spots such as Florida, which is expected to see a roughly seven-fold increase in the number of affordable units that are vulnerable to flooding. But the findings also highlight the danger in areas not yet identified as high-risk, such as New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Today about 1,600 affordable homes flood in an average year in New Jersey, but that number looks set to more than quadruple, said co-author Scott Kulp, a senior computational scientist with Climate Central. And the effects could be even greater in some cities, he said, mentioning Atlantic City, New Jersey, where flood risk will affect more than half of all affordable homes in the seaside resort town. Past climate forecasts have tended to "look at the number of people affected or the damage projected. There's been much less attention put on these lower-income communities," Kulp said. That focus is key in part because the effects on lower-income communities from climate disasters can be deeper. "Low-income renters typically have very few alternative housing options if a disaster damages their homes," said Andrew Aurand, vice president of research at the National Low Income Housing Coalition. Federal short-term housing assistance is often not enough to help families get back into permanent housing, and disasters can have long-term effects on the housing stock too, Aurand said. "When affordable rental housing is significantly damaged, the private market provides little incentive to repair or rebuild that housing to keep it affordable," he said.

Affordable Housing Flood Risk Is Expected to Triple by 2050 - The threat to affordable housing from flooding driven by climate change will likely triple in the next 30 years, new research shows. The study, from Climate Central and the National Housing Trust and published in Environmental Research Letters, examined risk posed not just by extreme events like hurricanes, but also at the increasingly common threat of "sunny-day" flooding caused by sea level rise. The threats driven by the climate crisis exacerbate the underlying affordable housing crisis — the study identified communities in which up to ninety percent of affordable housing is being put at risk. The U.S. already lacks sufficient affordable housing, and "low-income renters typically have very few alternative housing options if a disaster damages their homes," Andrew Aurand, VP of research at the National Low Income Housing Coalition, told Thomson Reuters. "When affordable rental housing is significantly damaged, the private market provides little incentive to repair or rebuild that housing to keep it affordable," he added.

Rapid Intensification and Number of Storms Make 2020 a Record Hurricane Season - (graphics, maps) As we reach the official end of hurricane season, 2020 will be one for the record books. Looking back at these long, surprising, sometimes downright crazy past six months (seven if you count when the first named storms actually started forming), there are many noteworthy statistics and patterns that drive home the significance of this hurricane season, and the ways climate change may have contributed to it. Hurricane activity this year broke some records. As of today, we have had a record 30 named storms, of which 13 turned into hurricanes. The first two, Arthur and Bertha, even formed before June 1, the official start of hurricane season. The third formed on June 1 itself.This is also only the second time in tropical storm naming history, the first time being in 2005, that the National Hurricane Center had to use the Greek alphabet letters to name storms after the regular list of names was exhausted. As the season progressed, storms generally got stronger – the image below gives a good idea of this progression. While a pattern like this is not unseen, it certainly is not usually this striking (for instance, see timelines of 2005, 2017, 2018, and 2019). Fortunately, the high level of activity did not translate into a higher number of major hurricanes this season. The August updated forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had called for 19-25 named storms, with 7-11 turning into hurricanes, 3-6 of which would be major (Category 3 or higher). The total number of named storms and hurricanes went up, but the latter prediction did not change from the original forecast released in May (see infographics below). So, even though 2020 surpassed the predicted number of named storms and hurricanes, as of today, six of the 13 hurricanes were major, still (barely) within the prediction. Of all the named storms, 12 made landfall in the U.S., six as hurricanes. As of today, the season was record-setting for named storms. It ranks second for hurricanes & major hurricanes.  Both Gulf and East Coast states were affected by landfalling hurricanes, and, strikingly, very few coastal counties have not been affected by tropical storm winds this season. Many of the 2020 storms formed in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, hence nine out of the 12 U.S. landfalling storms targeting the Gulf states. Louisiana, for example, suffered five landfalls starting in May with TS Bertha. This is the 6th year in a row that named storms formed before the official start of the season, and the 5th season in a row with at least one category 5 hurricane. It was also the first year to have two major hurricanes in the month of November (Eta and Iota, a Category 4 and 5 respectively), and September 2020 alone had 10 storms – almost equal to the number of total storms for the entirety of an average season, which is currently 12.

Cyclone Burevi slams into eastern Sri Lanka (Reuters) - Tropical cyclone Burevi slammed into Sri Lanka’s eastern coast on Wednesday night and was expected to damage coastal buildings and power lines, as well as unleash flash floods, officials at the meteorological department said. During the day Sri Lankan authorities evacuated over 75,000 people from homes on the east coast where cyclone Burevi, packing winds of up to 90 kph (56 mph) was set to hit. The island’s disaster management centre advised those living near its path to stay indoors. Earlier in the day Athula Karunanayake, the chief of the meteorology department said the wind speeds could reach 80 to 90 kph (50 to 56 mph). “Some areas will get more than 200 mm (8 inches) of rain.” Those evacuated, from the Trincomalee district expected to be hit the hardest, have been moved into 237 relief centres until the cyclone passes, disaster officials said. But Anuradha Yahampath, governor of the eastern province which includes Trincomalee, said some people were still resisting the evacuation effort. “I am appealing to people to go to these camps as soon as possible,” he told local media. “I met some of the fishermen earlier. They are aware of the situation but they are still not ready to leave their homes.” Authorities in the northern and eastern provinces, home to millions of people, will keep schools shut until at least Friday. By Thursday, the cyclone’s path will carry it northwest towards the Arabian Sea, Karunanayake said. Burevi is projected to move into southern India by early on Friday, Indian weather officials have said, but is expected to cause less damage there.

Tropical Cyclone "Burevi" makes landfall over Sri Lanka, heads toward Tamil Nadu --Tropical Cyclone "Burevi" made landfall over northern Sri Lanka late December 2, 2020 (LT) with maximum sustained winds up to 90 km/h (55 mph) and heavy rain. This the 5th named storm of the 2020 North Indian Ocean cyclone season and the second to form in the Bay of Bengal in a week. Burevi is now heading toward Tamil Nadu where red alerts are in effect. There are currently no reports of casualties. Burevi crossed the Sri Lanka coast just north of Trincomalee between 22:30 and 11:30 LT on December 2 with wind speed between 80 and 90 km/h (50 - 56 mph), according to the IMD. Sri Lanka's Disaster Management Centre (DMC) issued a red alert ahead of the landfall and evacuated 75 000 people from the east coast. DMC asked fishermen not to venture out to sea and ordered the closure of schools along the path of the cyclone for three days. Chief of Sri Lanka's meteorological department, Athula Karunanayake, said some areas can expect up to 200 mm (8 inches) of rain before the cyclone exits land and emerges in the Gulf of Mannar. IMD has issued a red alert for several areas of southern Tamil Nadu and Kerala on Thursday and suspended fishing activity until Friday, December 4. Burevi is expected to cross the coast of southern Tamil Nadu between Pamban and Kanyakumari between the night of December 3 and the morning of December 4 (LT) with maximum sustained wind speed of 70 - 80 km/h (43 - 50 mph) and gusts to 90 km/h (55 mph). Its impact is expected to continue over Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, and Kanniyakumari districts of south Tamil Nadu and adjoining districts of south Kerala until early hours of December 4. Heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls are very likely over south Tamil Nadu and over south Kerala on December 3 and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over south Tamil Nadu and south Kerala on December 4, 2020. Burevi is expected to exit into the Arabian Sea after 06:00 UTC on December 5 and re-strengthen as it moves toward Somalia.

Very bright fireball explodes over central Japan (videos) A very bright fireball streaked through the night sky over central Japan at around 16:35 UTC on November 28, 2020 (01:35 JST, November 29). The object was seen and recorded from many parts of western and central Japan and was accompanied by a rumbling noise. "It is rare for [shooting start] to be so bright," Takeshi Inoue, director of the Akashi Municipal Planetarium in Hyogo Prefecture, told Kyodo. "We believe the last burst of light was as bright as the full moon," he said.

Daylight fireball explodes over New York, creating a bright flash, U.S. --A bright daylight fireball exploded over northern New York, U.S. at 17:10 UTC on December 2, 2020, creating a bright flash in the middle of the day.Witnesses from parts of upstate New York said the visual event was followed by a sonic boom.The American Meteor Society (AMS) received more than 150 reports, mainly from New York and Ontario.Users from Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia also reported seeing the event."When a very bright fireball penetrates to the stratosphere, below an altitude of about 50 km (31 miles), and explodes as a bolide, there is a chance that sonic booms may be heard on the ground below," Vincent Perlerin of the AMS noted.NASA's analysis of the event shows that the parent meteoroid entered Earth’s atmosphere over upper New York, between Rochester and Syracuse."Traveling westward at 90 km/h (56 000 mph), it broke into pieces at an altitude of approximately 35 km (22 miles), producing a bright flash reported by the public and caught in videos."

 Major eruption at Lewotolo volcano, ash to 15.2 km (50 000 feet) a.s.l., Indonesia (videos) A high-level eruption took place at the Indonesian Lewotolo volcano at 01:50 UTC on November 29, 2020. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red. According to the Darwin VAAC, the volcanic ash cloud was discernible on satellite imagery acquired 03:20 UTC to 15.2 km (50 000 feet) a.s.l. moving southeast and to 5.5 km (18 000 feet) a.s.l. moving northwest. Volcanic ash height was based on Himawari-8, CVGHM VONA issued 02:00 UTC, and model guidance. The eruption was recorded on a seismograph with a maximum amplitude of 35 mm and a duration of 600 seconds. Seismic activity is currently characterized by continuous volcanic tremor, the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) said. Based on the currently available data, it is estimated that a total of 487 833 people (108 408 households) and $1.38 Billion USD of infrastructure are exposed to the hazard, according to the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance (AHA Centre). 12 526 people (2 784 households) and $32.6 Million USD of the infrastructure within 10 km-radius (6.2 miles) are more likely to be adversely impacted. CVGHM recommends that people around the volcano and anyone who wants to climb do not stay or do activities within the danger zone, around mountain craters, and in all areas within a radius of 2 km (1.2 miles) from the summit of the volcano. According to CVGHM, Lewotolok has been in Alert Level II status since October 7, 2017. The increase in status was triggered by an increase in volcanic activity in the form of significant seismicity, especially local tectonic earthquakes, deep volcanic and shallow volcanic since mid-September 2017. The BNPB is still coordinating with relevant authorities to assess the impact of the eruption. The Palang Merah Indonesia (PMI) team identified the urgent need at this time--masks (5000) and shelter for residents who are displaced.

Volcano Eruption in Indonesia Forces Thousands to Evacuate -- A large volcano in Indonesia erupted Sunday, sending a plume of smoke and ash miles into the air and forcing thousands of residents to evacuate the region.  Mount Ili Lewotolok's eruption in Lembata, East Nusa Tenggara caused the local airport to shut down and created panic among locals. East Nusa Tenggara province is located in a remote section about 1,615 miles east of Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, Al Jazeera reported.  Raditya Jati, a spokesman for the National Disaster Management Agency, said no deaths or injuries have been reported, but about 2,780 residents from 26 villages have sought refuge, according to Al Jazeera.  Local Muhammad Ilham, a 17 year old who captured video of the eruption, told Reuters people were "panicked and they're still looking for refuge and in need of money right now." Reuters reported that Indonesia has raised its threat level to the second-highest on a four-tier alert system.Three other volcanoes in Indonesia are currently at the second-highest level as well. Indonesia's Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) website warned that "hot clouds, lava stream, lava avalanche and poisonous gas" would impact the immediate area around the volcano, Al Jazeera reported. There are approximately 130 active volcanoes in Indonesia, Reuters reported, the most in the world. According to the CVGHM, 79 have erupted in the last 400 years.

Explosive activity continues at Lewotolo after major eruption on November 29, thousands of people evacuated  --Explosive activity continues at the Indonesian Lewotolo volcano on Monday, November 30, 2020, after a major eruption on Sunday sent ash up to 15.2 km (50 000 feet) a.s.l. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red following the eruption and Alert Status raised to 3 of 4. Lewotolo is located on Lembata island of East Nusa Tenggara province.There were no reports of injuries or damage after a major eruption on Sunday but authorities confirmed nearly 2 800 people from 28 villages on the slopes of the volcano were evacuated and nearby Wunopitu airport temporarily closed after ashfall was reported in many areas on the island.The Disaster Mitigation Agency is urging villagers and tourists to stay 4 kilometers (2.4 miles) away from the crater and be aware of potential threats as the area near the volcano is likely to be inundated with pyroclastic flows, lava, and poisonous gases. Considering the potential danger of volcanic ash that can cause acute respiratory problems and other health issues, the people around the volcano should prepare nose and mouth masks and other protective equipment for eyes and skin.  Explosions accompanied by a burst of incandescent material above the peak were recorded at 03:28, 04:39, 04:59, 06:40, 07:37, and 08:33 WITA today, with an ash column height of 1 400 - 4 000 m (4 600 - 13 100 feet) above the crater. Fires were also observed around the crater.

At least 50 explosions in 9 hours at Telica volcano, Nicaragua - (videos) An uptick in activity has been observed at the Nicaraguan Telica volcano on Monday, November 30, 2020, with low-level ash emission and dozens of explosions at regular rates. Ashfall was reported in nearby communities, including El Panal, Cristo Rey, Los Cocos, and Los Ángeles​. At least 50 explosions were recorded within 9 hours on November 30, with a maximum height of ash between 100 and 400 m (330 - 1 300 feet) above the crater. This is about 1.5 km (5 000 feet) above sea level. "This activity is part of the normal behavior of an active volcano and it is very likely that similar explosions will occur in the next few days," the Nicaraguan Institute for Territorial Studies (INETER) said. Volcanic ash emissions ended by 06:34 UTC on Tuesday, December 1, and resumed at around 12:41 UTC on the same day. At 18:31 UTC, the Washington VAAC reported constant ash emissions, moving SW from the summit. This activity continued through the rest of the day and into December 2, although no ash was visible early Wednesday due to meteorological cloud cover. No incandescence was observed on the webcam. However, given the recent activity level, volcanic ash emission is certainly possible, Washington VAAC noted in their advisory issued 05:39 UTC today.

Etna's Southeast Crater erupting from two vents simultanously, Italy  --Take a look at the sublime display of Etna's natural fireworks, with its Southeast Crater now erupting from two vents simultaneously.This video was recorded by INGV's Boris Behncke from Tremestieri Etnao on the southern side of Etna at daybreak on December 2, 2020. Mount Etna, towering above Catania, Sicily's second-largest city, has one of the world's longest documented records of historical volcanism, dating back to 1500 BCE. Historical lava flows of basaltic composition cover much of the surface of this massive volcano, whose edifice is the highest and most voluminous in Italy.The Mongibello stratovolcano, truncated by several small calderas, was constructed during the late Pleistocene and Holocene over an older shield volcano. The most prominent morphological feature of Etna is the Valle del Bove, a 5 x 10 km (5.1 x 6.2 miles) horseshoe-shaped caldera open to the east.Two styles of eruptive activity typically occur at Etna. Persistent explosive eruptions, sometimes with minor lava emissions, take place from one or more of the three prominent summit craters, the Central Crater, NE Crater, and SE Crater (the latter formed in 1978). Flank vents, typically with higher effusion rates, are less frequently active and originate from fissures that open progressively downward from near the summit (usually accompanied by strombolian eruptions at the upper end).Cinder cones are commonly constructed over the vents of lower-flank lava flows. Lava flows extend to the foot of the volcano on all sides and have reached the sea over a broad area on the SE flank. (GVP)

 Eruptions at Semeru volcano generate spectacular pyroclastic flows, Indonesia  A significant eruption occurred at the Indonesian Semeru volcano on December 1, 2020, generating a large pyroclastic flow and forcing thousands of residents to flee their homes. According to the CVGHM, the volcano has now entered the stage of generating frequent pyroclastic flows. The eruption came just 2 days after a high-level eruption at Lewotolo volcano on Lembata island forced nearly 5 000 people to evacuate.MAGMA Indonesia reported that an average of 40 eruptive earthquakes per day has been recorded from October 1 to November 30. Rock avalanches from the peak have continuously occurred since October 19.The number of avalanches significantly increased on November 28, followed by pyroclastic flows with a maximum sliding distance of 1 000 m (3 280 feet) to the southeast portion of the slope.On December 1, a spectacular pyroclastic flow was observed from the summit dome with a sliding distance between 2 and 11 km (1 and 7 miles) towards the southeast.As a result, dozens of livestock perished in the Pronojiwo District. In addition, 10 heavy-duty mining equipment were damaged. The Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management (BNPB) said the Lumajang Rapid Response Team has been deployed in disaster-prone areas to monitor the situation.Thousands of residents have been displaced and any activity has been prohibited within a 4 km (2.5 miles) radius of the active crater of the volcano, authorities said.

Strong explosion at Sakurajima volcano, Japan (video, graphics) After a few months of low-level activity, a strong explosion took place at Japan's Sakurajima volcano at 02:55 UTC on December 2, 2020. Part of the eruptive column was obscured by a meteorological cloud, making height estimate difficult. Sakurajima's Volcanic Alert Level remains at 3 (do not approach the volcano) since February 5, 2016. On July 1, 2020, a panel organized by the Japan Meteorological Agency warned Sakurajima may erupt on a larger scale sometime in the future. The frequency of eruptions at Minamidake summit crater has been on the decrease, while the volume of volcanic ashes remains constant-- indicating that the upcoming eruption may be bigger than usual, JMA said. In addition, the panel noted that the bloating and lifting of the mountain, as well as crustal movement, have been observed on the volcano since September 2019.

  Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) over the South Pole are missing this year - Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) over the South Pole are missing this year, but consider it only the tip of the iceberg, Dr. Tony Phillips of the SpaceWeather said.Missing NLCs is just one of the curious weather patterns currently underway at the southern end of our planet, Phillips noted. The first thing on his list is Earth's southern ozone hole which is not only open, but also the biggest it's ever been in December. On the second place of his list is the temperature of the air above Antarctica which is currently at record cold levels for this time of year--the result of an icy polar vortex that refuses to break up.The third thing is in the stratosphere where east-west winds at 60 degrees South are blowing at record speed."From top to bottom, the Antarctic atmosphere is in a quirky state," Phillips said."Normally, we see the first NLCs of the southern season around November 21. But this year, it's already December and we are still waiting," said Cora Randall of the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics.Lynn Harvey, also at LASP, gathered these plots from the Goddard Space Flight Center showing some of the unusual meteorology: According to Harvey's analysis of current trends, noctilucent clouds might not appear until mid-December, which is pretty unusual.What's causing the delay? "I would guess it's ocean/atmosphere coupling," speculates Randall. "La Nina strengthened in October, and this is known to affect large-scale circulation in the atmosphere (e.g., Butler et al., 2011).""It's blowing the scale away this year," says Hampton University Professor James Russell, principal investigator for NASA's AIM spacecraft, which monitors noctilucent clouds. "I can't wait to see what happens next."

Sun Ejects Biggest Solar Flare In Years Ahead Of Active Cycle -- On Sunday, SpaceWeather said the sun's solar explosion was measured as an M4.4-category eruption, which produced a shortwave radio blackout over some parts of Earth and a bright coronal mass ejection (CME).  "Remarkably, the flare was even bigger than it seemed. The blast site is located just behind the sun's southeastern limb, so the explosion was partially eclipsed by the body of the sun.  "X-rays and UV radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, producing a shortwave radio blackout over the South Atlantic... Ham radio operators and mariners may have noticed strange propagation effects at frequencies below 20 MHz, with some transmissions below 10 MHz completely extinguished," SpaceWeather said on its website.  A coronagraph video via the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) shows the massive burst of electromagnetic radiation ejecting from the sun.   SpaceWeather said the flare and an associated CME were not Earth-facing but erupted behind the sun's southeastern limb. This is good news because the explosion was partially eclipsed by the body of the sun. If the flare were Earth-facing, it would've likely been an X-class event, meaning it could've resulted in widespread radio blackouts, downed power grids, and disrupted communication networks.  The last decade of solar activity has been on the decline, though the latest flare-up in activity could suggest a new busy cycle is about to start.   In 2017, we noted that FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Administration) planned for a massive solar event that would be strong enough to take down the power grids.  With the Earth entering what appears to be an active solar period that could last through 2025 - this would present many challenges for the new digital economy as remote working has been kicked into hyperdrive because of the virus pandemic. Solar flares can disrupt satellite-based communications networks, as show below:

Sydney records hottest November night on record  Sydney has reported its hottest November night on record, with the official start of summer still days away. The city recorded a minimum overnight temperature of 25.4C and then hit 40C during the daytime on Sunday. Dozens of bush fires are already burning in New South Wales with hotter weather predicted on Tuesday. The states of Victoria and South Australia also reported soaring heat over the weekend. "November has been quite unusual in many ways. We have only seen about half our normal rainfall and it is quite possible it will be one of our hottest Novembers on record," Andrew Watkins, of the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) noted on Friday. 

Sydney swelters through hottest November night as severe heatwave grapples Australia = Parts of the south and southeast Australia are in the grip of severe to extreme heatwave, with temperatures soaring into the mid-40s °C (104s °F) and total fire bans in place in South Australia, New South Wales, and Victoria. The extreme weather conditions led to Sydney recording its hottest November night, with the mercury not dropping below 25.3 °C (77.5 °F), according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).  In South Australia, residents began to feel very hot weather conditions on Friday, November 27, which continued into Saturday, November 28, with temperatures hitting 46 °C (114. 8 °F) in Port Augusta and Coober Pedy. In NWS, temperatures surpassed 40 °C (104 °F) across the west and in coastal areas on Saturday. Much of Sydney sweltered through the mid-40s as powerful north-westerly winds held back the breeze, with the highest temperature of 41.7 °C (107 °F) recorded at the airport. According to BOM manager Jade Golding, November records for warmest overnight minimums likely fell on Friday night. The overnight temperature did not drop below 25.3 °C (77.5 °F) in central Sydney Saturday into Sunday, November 28 into 29, making it the hottest November night since record-keeping began.Golding added that the weekend heat would likely raise bushfire concerns, with the Rural Fire Service forecasting severe danger across NSW's southern regions, including the Riverina.A total fire ban was issued for much of eastern and north-eastern NSW for Sunday, including Greater Sydney, Illawarra, the Hunter, and the north coast.   "This is the first time since the devastating season last year we’ve seen widespread elevated fire danger," said RFS deputy commissioner Peter Mckechnie as he urged residents to have a fire plan ready. "Know what to do if a fire threatens you, know where you’ll go."Temperatures across NSW are expected to rise again on Tuesday, December 1, as heatwave conditions sweep across inland areas. In Victoria, temperatures in Mildura reached 45 °C (11 °F). The previous record for November was 45.5 °C (113.9 °F) set in 2012.Fire bans were also declared for the Mallee, Wimmera, and northern county regions. ."Northern country and Wimmera will also experience elevated dangerous fire conditions, with a severe fire danger rating. As a result, we have declared a total fire ban across all three weather districts."In southeast Queensland, records are set to be smashed as hot temperatures are expected to last into next week. Birdsville can expect 46 °C (114.8 °F) on Wednesday, December 2, while elsewhere in the south, a top of 45 °C (113 °F) is forecast for Cunnamulla. 

Wildfires Burn Fragile Ecosystem on Australia's Fraser Island -  The world's largest sand island has been on fire for the past six weeks due to a campfire, and Australia's firefighters have yet to prevent flames from destroying the fragile ecosystem. The wildfires on Fraser Island, also called by its Indigenous name K'gari, have burned almost 200,000 acres of its unique habitat, including large sand dunes, swamps and rainforests. Fraser Island is near Brisbane on the northeastern coast, where dingos, swamp wallabies, sugar gliders and more than 60 reptile species call the island home. It was declared a UNESCO World Heritage site in 1992.  Several tourists visiting the island had to be evacuated as conditions worsened, Reuters reported.  "I think it's frustrating for everybody, the fact that a campfire has started this fire. Having the impact that it has had, it started in a very, very remote part of the island… really difficult to access," Queensland Fire and Emergency Services deputy commissioner Mike Wassing told CNN affiliate Nine News, according to Reuters.  Since Saturday fire crews have dropped more than 200,000 gallons of water and flame retardant on the island, Reuters added.  The Guardian reported that crews are mainly addressing the problem from above, focusing on key ecological areas and sites that are important to the Butchulla Aboriginal people, who have called the island home for thousands of years.  However, fighting sand fires is difficult, Queensland Fire and Emergency Services assistant commissioner Gary McCormack told The Guardian. He explained how water quickly drained from the sand floor, even when dropped from above. Ground conditions weren't any better due to a lack of firebreaks.  "Unfortunately the current conditions are not conducive to extinguishment," McCormack said.  The fires are approaching the Valley of Giants, a tourist attraction known for its 1,000-year-old trees.  "This is a very large and very hot fire for this island. It's a big fire and it's the wrong kind of fire,"  "It's a catastrophe. Even ecosystems that are meant to burn don't bounce back from widespread hot fires. It can be beyond their capacity to bounce back."  According to CNN, Queensland's Bureau of Meteorology warned that an extreme heat wave and strong winds, forecast for the next couple of days, would likely worsen the fires.

Bond Fire South of LA Forces 25,000 to Flee  - Hot, dry and windy conditions fueled a wildfire southeast of Los Angeles Thursday that injured two firefighters and forced 25,000 to flee their homes. As of Thursday evening, the Bond Fire had spread to 6,400 acres and was only 10 percent contained, the Orange County Fire Authority (OCFA) tweeted. It comes as California has already experienced its worst year for wildfires, The Associated Press reported. The Bond Fire is also burning close to where the Silverado Fire forced tens of thousands to evacuate in October. Among them was Kolbi Winters, who had to evacuate again Thursday. "I had one month literally to enjoy myself before another fire happened," Winters told The Associated Press. "If this continues happening, and we don't take care of this, one day, I'm not going to have a home."California's worsening fires have been linked to the climate crisis, as warmer temperatures make the state and its vegetation drier, fueling the flames.The Bond Fire began in a house before 10:15 p.m. Wednesday night, CBSLA reported. However, three factors influenced its spread, according to CNN. A combination of Santa Ana winds up to 70 miles per hour, humidity as low as four percent and the hottest temperatures across the continental U.S. created a "particularly dangerous situation" for fires in the region, the National Weather Service Los Angeles said. These factors prompted utilities to shut off power to 123,000 customers as a preventative measure and sparked several fires, of which the Bond Fire was the largest, according to The Associated Press. High winds helped turn the house fire into a wildfire."When crews arrived it was a fully engulfed house and the winds were extremely strong and they pushed flames into the vegetation," OCFA spokeswoman Colleen Windsor told The Associated Press. The blaze then damaged other structures."We know that a number of houses have been damaged, potentially destroyed," OCFA chief Brian Fennessy said at a press conference, The New York Times reported. Fennessy also said that more than 500 firefighters from more than 30 agencies were helping to battle the flames. Two of those firefighters, who were with the U.S. Forest Service, were injured sometime Thursday afternoon, according to CBSLA. They were treated by paramedics and taken to a hospital, where their condition was not known. However, their injuries were not life-threatening, according to The New York Times. The fire forced 25,000 to evacuate, though some evacuation orders were lifted, CNN reported. Evacuations were complicated by the coronavirus pandemic. Because of the contagious disease, authorities could not set up an overnight shelter and advised people to stay with family or in a hotel.

Much of the U.S. Could Be Uninhabitable by 2050 - There have been many attempts to measure human survivability at various combinations of temperature and humidity, both with bodies at rest and bodies doing work — exercising, for example, or cleaning the gutters. The usual way to measure what core body temperature will result from a given combination of heat, humidity, wind, and other factors is by using a wet-bulb thermometer to measure the “wet-bulb temperature.” A more refined version of the web-bulb temperature is the “web bulb globe temperature” (WBGT).  All you need to know is this: A “web bulb” is basically the bulb of a thermometer with wet muslin around it, simulating the core of a human body (the bulb) with wet skin around it (the muslin). If the water in the muslin is able to evaporate, the temperature of the bulb will be lower than the temperature of the outside air. If water in the muslin can’t evaporate (at 100% humidity and no wind, for example) the temperature of the bulb can’t be lowered. For humans, the web-bulb temperature of an environment shouldn’t be much greater than our normal core body temperature; if it is, the environment will endanger the people experiencing it. It’s a given among scientists that a web-bulb temperature of 95°F (35°C) is the upper limit of extended human endurability. Anything above that and after a short while, people need to stop working, go indoors or into the shade, or find some air-conditioned place to continue their activities. Consider the chart below from a 2004 study, “Extremes of human heat tolerance: Life at the precipice of thermoregulatory failure,” by William Kenney et al. Note the temperature point (X-axis) at which human core temperature stops being stable and begins rising out of control (Y-axis). In this graph, MDI on the X-axis is a proxy for WBGT. The Y-axis shows a rate of increase in core temperature per hour. Assuming no ability of the body to cool itself, outside temperatures above 35°C (95°F) will cause overheating, and as you can see, the hotter it is, the faster the body’s core temperature rises. At a wet-bulb temperature of 40°C (104°F), core body temperature rises two to three degrees every hour. At higher temperatures, it rises faster. The following chart shows weeks per year of ambient temperatures above 35°C (95°F) for counties in the U.S. if we continue to burn fossil fuels at a business-as-usual rate. The darker the red, the more weeks per year of these temperatures. (The source is a recent ProPublica piece entitled “New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States.”)The eye notices the dark red — for example, Phoenix, Arizona, with half a year of above-95° heat. But look at Kansas, with 8-11 weeks above 95 degrees. In Kansas, that’s the heart of the growing season, or was.

 Delhi shivers through coldest October and November in more than 50 years, India - With the mean temperature of 10.2 °C (50.4 °F), the month of November 2020 ended up as Delhi's coldest November since 1949. The average mean minimum temperature for the month is around 12.9 °C (55.5 °F), according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). IMD data shows that Delhi also experienced its coldest October in 58 years, with the mean minimum temperature pummeling to 17.2 °C (63 °F). In 1962, the mean minimum temperature for October was 16.9 °C (62.4 °F)The temperatures are likely to worsen, with IMD's seasonal forecast predicting a colder winter season with below-average minimum temperatures in New Delhi, as well as in parts of north and northwest India.On Monday, November 30, Delhi recorded its coldest November day with the minimum temperature dropping to 6.9 °C (44.4 °F).According to Kuldeep Srivastava, head of IMD’s regional weather forecasting center, the cold temperatures in November are attributed to "a combination of factors including global conditions such as La Nina," and local ones such as "an absence of cloud cover, whenever there are clear skies, the minimum temperature drops."In addition, the capital experienced four cold waves last month-- on November 3, 20, 23, and 24. The last time the city saw multiple cold waves in November was in 1964, when three cold snaps occurred.The last time Delhi experienced a significant cold wave in November was six years ago, in 2014.The previous all-time low minimum temperature for November was at 8.9 °C (48 °F) set in 1930. IMD director-general M. Mohaptra explained that while global factors like La Nina have contributed to record temperatures, this is magnified when local and regional factors also contribute, leading to extreme weather conditions, such as what Delhi has experienced in November.

Study Finds Climate Crisis Is Deterring Some Adults From Having Kids - Will concern over the climate crisis stop people from having children?  A first-of-its-kind academic study suggests that it already has. The study, published in the journal Climate Change this month, found that 96.5 percent of respondents were "very" or "extremely concerned" about what the lives of their current or hypothetical children would look like in a future they see as overwhelmingly bleak."[C]limate change is the sole factor for me in deciding not to have biological children," a 31-year-old study participant from Washington said. "I don't want to birth children into a dying world. I dearly want to be a mother, but climate change is accelerating so quickly, and creating such horror already, that bringing a child into this mess is something I can't do." The question of whether it is right or desirable to have children in the context of the climate crisis has beenraised in recent years. New York Representative and Green New Deal champion Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in 2019 that it was legitimate to ask whether it was "OK to still have children" given scientific predictions for what the world could look like if industrial societies do not rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A 2018 poll found that 11 percent of 20-to-45 year olds in the U.S. who either did not want children or were unsure about having them cited being "worried about climate change" as one reason. Another 2020 poll found that 14.3 percent of 18-to-44 year olds in the U.S. without children cited climate change as a "major reason" and a further 20.7 percent cited it as a "minor reason."

‘Major Hurdle’ Cleared as Youth Activists Advance Historic Climate Case - An unprecedented climate lawsuit brought by six Portuguese youths is to be fast-tracked at Europe's highest court, it was announced today. The European Court of Human Rights said the case, which accuses 33 European nations of violating the applicants' right to life by disregarding the climate emergency, would be granted priority status due to the "importance and urgency of the issues raised."  This is the first climate lawsuit to be filed with the international court in Strasbourg, France, and campaigners say the decision represents a major step towards a potential landmark judgment.Cláudia Agostinho (21), Catarina Mota (20), Martim Agostinho (17), Sofia Oliveira (15), André Oliveira (12) and Mariana Agostinho (8) are bringing the case with nonprofit law firm Global Legal Action Network (GLAN), arguing that none of the countries have sufficiently ambitious targets to cut their emissions. Portugal recently sweltered through its hottest July in 90 years and has seen a rise in devastating heatwaves and wildfires over recent years due to rising temperatures. Four of the applicants live in Leiria, one of the regions worst-hit by the forest fires that killed more than 120 people in 2017.

UN calls on humanity to end 'war on nature,' go carbon-free - As an extreme year for hurricanes, wildfires and heat waves comes to an end, the head of the United Nations challenged world leaders to make 2021 the year that humanity ends its “war on nature” and commits to a future free of planet-warming carbon pollution. With new reports highlighting 2020’s record-breaking weather and growing fossil fuels extraction that triggers global warming, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres delivered yet another urgent appeal to curb climate change. It was tinged with optimism but delivered dire warnings, as the UN gears up for a Dec. 12 virtual climate summit in France on the 5th anniversary of the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement. “The state of the planet is broken,” Guterres said in a speech at Columbia University. “Humanity is waging war on nature. This is suicidal.” “Apocalyptic fires and floods, cyclones and hurricanes are increasingly the new normal,” he said. In a report, the World Meteorological Organization said this year is set to end about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the last half of the 1800s, which scientists use as a baseline for warming caused by heat-trapping gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas. Most trapped heat goes into the world’s seas, and ocean temperatures now are at record levels. It also means 2020 will go down as one of the three hottest years on record. “There is at least a one-in-five chance of it temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2024,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said. The Paris climate accord set a goal of not exceeding 1.5-degree (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming since pre-industrial times. A new analysis by Climate Action Tracker scientists who monitor carbon pollution and pledges to cut them said public commitments to emission cuts, if kept, would limit warming to about 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and possibly as low as 2.1 degrees Celsius. Guterres saw hope in promises by more than 100 countries that by mid-century they will not be adding more heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere than trees and technology can remove, along with shorter term pollution cuts. China and U.S. President-elect Joe Biden have pledged net zero carbon emissions.

New Zealand Declares Climate Emergency - The government of New Zealand declared a climate emergency on Wednesday, a symbolic step recognizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions of substantial global warming if emissions do not fall. Alongside the declaration, New Zealand announced it would require its public sector to become carbon neutral by 2025. Government agencies would need to measure, report and offset emissions. "The public sector needs to be and will be an exemplar that sets the standard we all need to achieve by 2050," New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told parliament in Wellington. New Zealand Going Green "This is a declaration of science," Ardern told said, adding the move is "an acknowledgement of the next generation… of the burden they will carry if we do not take action now."New Zealand's decarbonization program is supported by a NZ$200 million ($141 million) state fund and includes a phase-out of coal, a requirement for government agencies to use electric vehicles and a green standard for public buildings, according to Radio New Zealand. Declaring a climate emergency, however, comes without any new statutory powers or money, making the move purely symbolic. Thirty-two other countries, including Japan, Canada, France and the United Kingdom, have already declared a climate emergency. Doing so indicates that governments recognize climate change as an existential threat that requires urgent action in response.

Are “Net-Zero” Emissions a Smoke Screen? -- naked capitalism - Yves here. This interview with Peter Carter on climate changes targets highlights the damage done by William Nordhaus, who advocates a 3 degrees Celsius increase as optimal. For a definitive shellacking, see Steve Keen. The talk also takes on another dangerous head-fake: net zero carbon emissions. It covers another development that gets very little discussion in the mainstream media (although NC was early to focus on it): ocean acidification. Carter mentions that higher temperatures will devastate agriculture. A common response from climate change deniers is “Oh, we can just farm further north” (or south for those in the Southern Hemisphere). Perhaps, but it won’t be anywhere near as productive. Land further from the equator gets less intense sunlight, which is what plants need to grow. (Paul Jay interview and transcript)

'Historic Moment' as Climate Movement Takes on Big Oil at The Hague  --Representing more than 17,000 claimants who support climate action, the international organization Friends of the Earth on Tuesday opened its case against fossil fuel giant Shell at The Hague by demanding that a judge order the corporation to significantly reduce its carbon emissions in the next decade.Milieudefensie, the Dutch arm of Friends of the Earth, says Shell has broken the law in The Netherlands by knowingly standing in the way of the country's phase-out of fossil fuels. Shell says it has set a goal of cutting its emissions to net zero by 2050, but the group is demanding a more rapid reduction."We are relying on the Dutch courts to protect communities around the globe," tweeted Nils Mollema, a policy advisor at ActionAid, which is supporting Milieudefensie in the case.The case comes five years after the Dutch government was ordered to reduce its emissions by at least 25% from 1990 levels by the end of 2020. Under the Paris climate agreement, the European Union has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030."The claimants therefore conclude that Royal Dutch Shell's corporate policy is on collision course with global climate targets," Roger Cox, a lawyer representing Milieudefensie in the civil case, told a panel of three judges at The Hague District Court on Tuesday.The organization has vehemently rejected Shell's defense in the case, in which the multinational corporation is suggesting that it is no more responsible for solving the climate emergency than other businesses or individuals. "What will accelerate the energy transition is effective policy, investment in technology, and changing customer behavior," Shell said Tuesday as the first of four days of hearings began. "None of which will be achieved with this court action."

Green Growth vs Degrowth: Are We Missing the Point? - The row about ecological limits to growth is back with a vengeance. On one side are those who are deeply sceptical about the idea of ‘infinite growth on a finite planet’. They argue that to be sure of offering a good life for all within planetary boundaries, we need to kick our addiction to consumption growth (in wealthy countries at least). These ‘green growth sceptics’ include those advocating for ‘degrowth’, ‘prosperity without growth’, ‘steady state economics’, ‘doughnut economics’ and ‘wellbeing economics’.  In the opposite corner are ‘green growth’ advocates who believe that the historical relationship between GDP and environmental impact can be not just weakened but effectively severed. For green growthers, the key to maintaining a habitable planet is decoupling — reducing the environmental impact associated with each pound or dollar of GDP. By deploying new technologies, and shifting the nature of our consumption, they argue we can do our bit for the environment while continuing to grow our economies, even in wealthy countries. Green growth sceptics do not dispute the need for decoupling, but observe that the faster we grow the faster we have to decouple. Even a modest goal like 2% growth per year implies doubling the scale of consumption every 35 years. Unfortunately, we have neverapproached the rates of decoupling that would be necessary for rich countries to get back within their fair share of ecological space while maintaining that kind of exponential growth. Green growth advocates tend to respond that the historical record shouldn’t be taken as a guide to what is possible in future. Pessimism about future technological breakthroughs will be self-fulfilling, they say. For some this is a compelling and entertaining debate. But it is not going to be settled in a timeframe that is useful for maintaining a habitable planet. In the meantime, these adversaries are in danger of delivering a major own goal. Because the more time we spend in nerdy (and sometimes venomous) exchanges about decoupling, the less time we have to build the broad-based movement we need to take on the vested interests who benefit from the status quo.

Study: Decarbonizing U.S. electricity by 2035 could cost less than expected  - Most of the United States’ existing fossil fuel power plant capacity will reach the end of its typical lifespan by 2035, according to new research published this week in Science. Findings of the Dec. 4 study suggest that a deadline to decarbonize electricity by then will cost less than previously expected. The study follows on the heels of an October report from the Applied Economics Clinic and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis that found the risks of investing in natural gas plants in the PJM grid region likely outweigh the financial rewards.  “What this work shows is that it’s probably not going to be a massive problem” to shut down remaining fossil fuel-fired electricity generation, said Emily Grubert, a civil engineer at Georgia Tech and author of the study in Science. Her work focuses on infrastructure engineering and sustainable communities. “Basically, the plants are already pretty old and this gives us a huge leg up in trying to retire carbon-based infrastructure.”  By 2035, her calculations show that only about 15% of capacity-years would remain for power plants powered by fossil fuels. In other words, if you added up all the years of capacity left for all fossil fuel power plants running in 2018, less than one-sixth of the total years would remain. From a planning perspective, that means states and utilities can probably worry less about the economics of closing down plants early, Grubert said. Compensation for stranded assets can come into play when “somebody builds something in good faith and then policy or some other occurrence forces it to shut down much, much earlier than expected,” Grubert said. Some plant owners might argue that they would still have outstanding debts or lose income they had reasonably expected. “There’s a lot of arguments that maybe the newer fossil fuel assets should never be considered stranded assets, because it’s been fairly clear that there’s going to be climate action at some point,” Grubert said. Ohio stands out among Midwestern states with a significant number of fossil fuel plants with lifespans past 2035 and even 2040. A significant number of those plants may be due to fracking and horizontal drilling in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays. Significant numbers of fossil fuel plants also have expected lifespans past 2035 along parts of the Mid-Atlantic seaboard and in Texas, Colorado and California. Many of the plants are in communities with struggling economies.  In Grubert’s view, long-range policy planning should begin now to support people who will eventually lose their jobs, as well as communities that may have relied on revenues from fossil fuel power plants. At the same time, other people and other businesses are also affected by climate change impacts, she noted. They include communities affected by sea-level rise, shifts in extreme weather, disproportionate health impacts, and so on.In light of that, she personally favors universal programs to benefit large numbers of people. “I think you’d be likely to garner a lot more political support for something that helps everyone,” Grubert said.

Green bank advocates hope Biden win can help reinvigorate idea in Minnesota -As the incoming administration raises hopes for a new federally funded clean energy accelerator, a report released Thursday attempts to address Minnesota lawmakers’ questions and concerns about so-called green banks. The report, produced by the nonprofit Coalition for Green Capital and sponsored by the McKnight Foundation, calls on state lawmakers to create a bank that would exclusively be used to finance projects related to renewables, energy efficiency, and electric transportation. The coalition suggested that a bank with $100 million in capital could create as many as 15,000 jobs in Minnesota. A similar proposal stalled in the Minnesota Legislature in 2018 after lawmakers said they needed more details on the concept. The new report walks through examples from the dozen other states that already have green banks. A state green bank like the one described in the report could bolster existing clean energy finance programs and spur job creation by backing larger and riskier projects, though administrators of existing programs had reservations about both the need and prospects for a green bank in Minnesota. Sponsored by state and local governments, green banks provide financing for energy efficiency and renewable energy projects unlikely to secure traditional bank financing. They often work in conjunction with other green investment programs through a loan loss reserve fund to pay off delinquencies. Or they directly provide programs for low-income residents with heavy energy burdens.

Big business is divided on climate. Could that help Biden? ----Last year, as the Trump administration worked to finalize a rollback of Obama-era regulations on oil field methane emissions, a series of major oil companies wrote EPA to express their displeasure.Total SE, the French oil giant, called the rollbacks "a substantial risk to our companies' efforts to reduce methane emissions and address climate change."Royal Dutch Shell PLC said federal regulations were "critically important for ensuring natural gas plays a vital role in transitioning to a low-carbon energy future and economy."BP PLC, meanwhile, noted several industry groups had established initiatives to reduce methane emissions but said those efforts were "not enough to solve the problem.""These efforts will not have the industry-wide impact that we need and will not satisfy investors, consumers, policymakers or other stakeholders," BP wrote. "The best way to help further minimize methane emissions industry-wide and gain the confidence of a diverse group of stakeholders, is through direct federal regulation of new and existing sources."The comments represent a sea change from just a few years earlier. In 2015, BP called the Obama administration's proposed methane plan "cumbersome and expensive."They reflect a wider shift across the energy sector in recent years. Oil companies, utilities and automakers have embraced plans to reduce emissions and tackle climate change. The shift could offer President-elect Joe Biden's climate agenda a significant boost, as he prepares to encounter a closely divided Senate and a more conservative judiciary.

EPA misses deadline, leaving ethanol policy in limbo - The Trump administration failed to renew its biofuels policy by the Monday deadline, once again sidestepping a battle between the oil and the ethanol industries. The missed deadline means it remains unclear how much ethanol and other biofuels oil refiners must blend into their fuels next year, punting the decision to the incoming Biden administration. “It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that EPA is missing its statutory deadline for publishing the final rule … given that we still haven’t even seen a proposed rule,” Renewable Fuel Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper said of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Cooper said at this point it makes more sense to let the new administration handle the entire process. “President-elect [Joe] Biden has correctly noted that the [Renewable Fuel Standard] (RFS) waivers granted by the current EPA have ‘severely cut ethanol production, costing farmers income and ethanol plant workers their jobs.’ Thus, we are confident that the new EPA administrator, whoever that may end up being, will stop doing secret favors for oil refiners and ensure the RFS is implemented in a way that is consistent with the law and Congressional intent," he said. The ethanol industry remains perturbed that the EPA granted more than 80 waivers exempting small oil refiners from adding ethanol to their fuels — something they say cut demand for their product at a critical time. Many corn farmers were likewise being hit by tariffs as part of Trump’s trade war, limiting markets for their product. The action pitted one part of Trump’s base against another — refiners have sought to avoid the added expense of adding ethanol to their product, particularly as their own markets have tanked. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, which represents the refining industry, said they hope EPA will ultimately settle on a rule that’s “in line with market realities.” “With unprecedented turbulence in the transportation fuels market, difficult market conditions, and a long and uncertain road to recovery from COVID-19, it is critical that EPA's proposal reflect achievable targets to prevent further damage to America’s refining sector,” Geoff Moody, vice president of government relations for the group, said in a statement. The EPA did not respond to questions about whether they still might seek to advance a proposal this year, but the timeline would make it nearly impossible to finalize a rule before Inauguration Day. “Under this administration, EPA has worked to aggressively uphold the integrity of the RFS and will continue to do so,” agency spokesman James Hewitt said in an email.M

Senate approves two energy regulators, completing panel - Two nominees to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) were confirmed to the panel by voice votes on Monday. Democrat Allison Clements and Republican Mark Christie will serve on the panel, which regulates natural gas and hydropower projects and the interstate transmission of natural gas, oil and electricity. Their confirmation brings FERC, which isn’t supposed to have more than three members belonging to any one party, up to its full capacity. Previously, the commission had been operating with fewer than the standard five commissioners.   Christie is a longtime utility regulator, serving as chairman of the Virginia State Corporation Commission. He’s also held leadership roles in organizations of utility regulators. Clements has served as the founder and president of Goodgrid, LLC, an energy policy and strategy consulting firm. She also worked for a decade at the Natural Resources Defense Council and worked for two years as the director of the energy markets program at Energy Foundation, which advocates for energy efficiency and renewable energy.  Their nominations were advanced to the full Senate, though it had not been clear whether they would reach confirmation by the end of the session.  Despite her background in clean energy, Clements said during a September confirmation hearing that it wouldn’t be her job to pick one source of energy over another.  “The commission’s role is not to pick winners and losers when it comes to fuel choices,” she said, adding that in pipeline cases she would “commit to going into each of those proceedings with an open mind and reviewing the specific facts.” Now, FERC has three Republicans and two Democrats. However, the chair of the commission is selected by the president, so President-elect Joe Biden may decide to pick Clements or fellow Democrat Richard Glick to lead the regulatory body.  Trump recently made headlines when he switched leadership from Republican Neil Chatterjee to current chairman James Danly, also a Republican. News outlets reported that Chatterjee, a former energy aide to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), may have been demoted due to his openness to putting a price on carbon emissions or not wanting to follow a White House directive limiting diversity training.

Some Republican states would fight forced utility emissions cuts under Biden climate agenda (Reuters) - The governors of five Republican states are ready to fight Democratic President-elect Joe Biden if he tries to require the power sector to slash greenhouse gas emissions. The litigious stance reflects just one of the many obstacles Biden will face as he seeks to deliver on a campaign promise to bring the U.S. economy to net zero emissions by 2050 to combat climate change. Biden’s pledge includes a goal of cutting net emissions from the power sector – a top source of nationwide greenhouse gases - to zero by 2035, though the president-elect has yet to detail how he intends to make it happen. Lawsuits from states could halt implementation of any Democratic plan, as they did in 2016. “We can all agree that lower emissions are better, but we should also all be able to agree that cost-prohibitive, counterproductive regulations for the sake of catering to an extreme wing of a political party is destructive,” said Bailey Martin, a spokeswoman for Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves. Republican-governed Mississippi, North Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska and Arkansas said they would challenge any new federal policies requiring the power sector to cut carbon emissions. Utah and Missouri, also under Republican governors, said they would review proposals before deciding. The seven were among 27 states that sued in 2015 to block the Clean Power Plan (CPP), the Obama administration’s signature effort to address climate change by requiring deep cuts in power-sector emissions. Fifteen other states in the lawsuit, including four now under Democratic leadership, either declined to say how they would respond to a new emissions reduction order or did not respond to requests for comment. The states’ lawsuit reached the Supreme Court, which stayed implementation of the CPP in 2016. Outgoing President Donald Trump’s administration proposed rescinding the policy in 2017, a move that was finalized last year.

America’s largest solar-energy project coming to Northeast Texas -- A leading private developer and operator of sustainable energy solutions, Invenergy, announced Nov. 18 the construction of a 1,310-megawatt solar-energy facility in Northeast Texas. The Samson Solar Energy Center will be the largest solar-energy project in the United States and will support sustainability goals for three Texas municipalities and five major consumer brands. When completed, the center will provide power for AT&T, Honda, McDonald’s, Google, Home Depot, and the cities of Bryan, Denton and Garland. Invenergy has contracted more than 3,500 megawatts of wind and solar capacity to more than 20 corporate users across six U.S. markets and Mexico. This latest project, the company said, will provide Texans with cleaner, cost-effective power. The largest agreement is with AT&T who will be provided with 500 megawatts of solar power through the Samson Center. The Samson Solar Center will be located in Lamar, Red River and Franklin counties. The project involves a $1.6 billion capital investment and will support up to 600 jobs throughout the 36-month construction period.

As solar farms multiply across Virginia, officials reckon with land use challenges --Just above the North Carolina border, in the heart of Southside Virginia, Halifax county’s sunshine and abundant lands yielded some of the country’s largest crops of brightleaf tobacco. Mild and fragrant, the yellow-leaved variety sometimes known as “golden tobacco” sparked awe among visitors to the county’s auction warehouses and brought wealth pouring into the county. Today, the landscape is far different. The population has shrunk and is aging. South Boston, once an independent city that until the Great Depression was the second-biggest brightleaf market in the country, reverted to a town in 1995 after ongoing fiscal struggles. Tobacco is a shadow of its former glory. Halifax, though, still has the two resources that once put it on the map: sunshine and abundant land. Together, they have made the county one of the most attractive in Virginia for solar developers looking to convert vast swathes of agricultural and forest lands into fields of solar panels capable of providing the thousands of megawatts of power needed for the 100 percent renewable grid lawmakers have pledged to create by 2050. In Halifax, that looks like a sort of 21st-century gold rush. Over the past five years, the county has seen proposals for roughly a dozen large-scale solar farms. Eight projects covering some 5,500 acres have been approved, and County Administrator Scott Simpson said there’s room for more. For large-scale solar, though, demand means land. And as the pace of development accelerates, Virginians will have to grapple with major changes to the Old Dominion’s landscape. Compared to coal and natural gas plants that emit pollution that is dangerous to human health, contributes to climate change and disproportionately affects low-income and minority communities, solar installations are low impact. But even advocates concede they have a larger geographic footprint, and tensions exist between rural areas that see themselves as bearing the burdens of the solar buildout and the urban areas that drive demand for renewables.

Report illuminates the way for solar development in Virginia -  Historic preservation need not knock heads with Virginia’s pursuit of solar energy. If, that is, developers of utility-scale solar plants do their homework, detect trouble spots in advance, collaborate with others, and proceed smartly. That’s the gist of the advice in a report released today by a trio of heavyweight preservation advocates. The American Battlefield Trust, Preservation Virginia and Cultural Heritage Partners have joined forces to suggest best practices to grow utility-scale solar energy and avoid encroaching on the commonwealth’s many historic landscapes and resources. Their 22-page report, “Siting Solar in Virginia: Protecting Virginia’s Historic Landscapes While Meeting State’s Clean Energy Goals,” recognizes that the state has deemed large-scale solar projects to be an important part of its 21st-century infrastructure. “Preservation Virginia believes that this report makes the case that preservation of historic resources and utility-scale solar development are not mutually exclusive,” Elizabeth Kostelny, the nonprofit group’s CEO, told the Star-Exponent late Wednesday. “By identifying resources and through thoughtful planning, you can have positive outcomes that are beneficial for all parties. The report presents case studies that inform how this planning can be undertaken and the resulting benefits.” Two of those case studies are in Culpeper and Orange counties. The others are in Annapolis, Md., and Washington, D.C. Citing those studies as examples of approaches that work well, or don’t, the report says utility-scale solar developers can address historic resources and distinguish themselves as leaders for the rest of the country. “A key takeaway from the report is that history and avoiding impacts to historic resources should not be an afterthought for developers in pursuing solar projects,” Mark Coombs, the American Battlefield Trust’s deputy director of government relations, said Wednesday in an interview. “They should be among the very first things considered when they undertake these projects. That will avoid headaches and heartburn for all involved, and spare developers from ‘sunk costs.’ Goodwill attempts to avoid such impacts will only increase developers’ chances of success, and cost them less time and money.”

'No net loss!' Don't cut down forests to build solar sites - As residents of Hamden, we heartily support solar projects to meet the demand for electricity.  However, we must oppose PETITION NO. 1425 made to the Connecticut Siting Council by Distributed Solar Development (DSD), a solar-energy offshoot of General Electric and Blackrock. We applaud CSCU’s desire to buy solar energy; however this particular project has a major flaw. It entails clear cutting 12 acres of trees in a forest!  As we all know, forests sequester carbon and mitigate the growing effects of climate change. The September 2020 report from the Governor’s Council on Climate Change (GC3) Forests Subgroup presents as a top priority the adoption of a state policy of “no net loss” of forest. “KEEP FOREST AS FORESTS.” Regarding this proposed facility, the Hamden Tree Commission writes: “This proposal to clear cut and chip over 12 acres of mature, mesic hardwood forest that is on steep slopes and contains wetlands will have substantial adverse permanent environmental impacts.”  The steep slope, with some areas exceeding 25% slope, invites erosion. According to theRegional Water Authority letter to the Siting Council, the soil types at this site are “highly erosive.” DSD’s environmental report suggests that the developers can easily control erosion and storm water on site. But the DSD has yet to provide, as of November 12, a full set of storm water runoff models required by Connecticut’s Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP). The value of forest ecosystem services must also be considered. A forest is not just a bunch of trees but a biological community of interacting organisms and their physical environment. One of the most important ecosystem services provided by a forest is the protection of drinking water supplies. The forest and its wetlands filter runoff that helps clean the water we drink. This solar project is in a drinking water supply watershed: the watershed of Eaton Brook which flows to the Mill River, which flows downstream to the Lake Whitney reservoir. This reservoir is an active drinking water source for the South Connecticut Regional Water Authority (RWA) customers. The best way to protect drinking water is to protect forests. The environmental report for this solar project does not even mention what watershed the project is located in or that it is in a source water protection area. This is a huge omission! As the RWA writes in its testimony “This Solar Project will result in an irretrievable loss of forestland that protects the affected RWA sources of supply in the Mill River watershed.” In addition, the Hamden Tree Commission testimony addresses countless other ecosystem services and makes the point that “this parcel is a critical component of a forested corridor that connects the Naugatuck State Forest and adjacent Regional Water Authority watershed with Sleeping Giant State Park and Mill River Watershed.”

An offshore wind farm with the ability to ‘power one million households' is fully up and running -- A major offshore wind farm in the Netherlands is now fully operational, with its owners, Danish energy firm Orsted, claiming it provides enough green electricity to power one million households. Situated 23 kilometers (around 14.3 miles) off the coast of Zeeland, in the southwest of the Netherlands, the 752 megawatt (MW) Borssele 1 & 2 offshore wind farm spans an area of 112 square kilometers. It uses 94 wind turbines from Siemens Gamesa. In an announcement Friday, Orsted described the facility as the second-largest operating offshore wind farm in the world. The largest, Hornsea One, has a capacity of 1.2 gigawatts (GW) and was also developed by Orsted. News of Borssele 1 & 2's commissioning is the latest example of European countries embracing offshore wind and comes after the European Union said it wanted to increase its offshore wind capacity from 12 to 300 GW by 2050. The "Offshore Renewable Energy Strategy" from the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, also aims for 40 GW of ocean energy such as tidal and wave power within the same time frame. A number of major offshore wind projects located in European waters are now in the pipeline. These include the Dogger Bank Wind Farm in Britain, which left the EU in January 2020. A 50:50 joint venture between SSE Renewables and Equinor, the Dogger Bank facility will have a total capacity of 3.6 GW once completed, making it the largest in the world. At the end of last week, it was announced that a deal to fund the first two phases of the project had been completed. According to SSE, investment for Dogger Bank A and B will amount to approximately £6 billion (around $8 billion). While Europe is now home to a mature offshore wind sector, the one in the U.S. is still relatively new. The country's first offshore wind farm – the 30 MW, five-turbine Block Island Wind Farm, which is also operated by Orsted – only started commercial operations at the end of 2016. The next few years could see the sector develop, however, with companies starting to invest large amounts of money in schemes located off the East Coast.

Feds Push Vineyard Wind Decision Into 2021 - The Vineyard Wind project has been delayed again. The project, which is poised to be the first utility-scale offshore wind farm in the country, is already more than a year behind schedule and now will have to wait about a month longer. A federal decision on final permitting for the project had been expected by Dec. 18, 2020, but the federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management updated its timeline in recent weeks and now expects a final decision by Jan. 15, 2021. "BOEM received more than 13,000 comments on the Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for Vineyard Wind," a spokesman for the agency told the News Service in an email. "BOEM continues to work with cooperating agencies in the review of these comments. An updated schedule is posted on BOEM's website." A final federal decision on the 800-megawatt offshore wind farm had initially been expected by Aug. 16, 2019 but BOEM sent shockwaves through the offshore wind industry in August 2019 when it announced a plan to withhold the final environmental impact statement for Vineyard Wind while it studies the wider impacts of an offshore wind sector that is hoping to ramp up in Northeast and mid-Atlantic waters also used by the fishing industry.

Innovative geothermal micro-district concept moves ahead in Massachusetts | Energy News Network Two pilot projects in Massachusetts will attempt to deploy geothermal heating across entire neighborhoods — an innovative model that aims to slash fossil fuel use while providing an economic transition for gas utilities and their workers. “The more we’ve learned, the more incredible it has seemed,” said Audrey Schulman, co-founder and co-executive director of the Home Energy Efficiency Team, a Cambridge-based nonprofit that developed and promoted the geothermal micro-district concept.The first pilot is slated for the Merrimack Valley, an area in northeastern Massachusetts hit by a series of gas explosions and fires in September 2018 thatfederal investigators blamed on inadequate management by Columbia Gas. The $56 million settlement the company agreed to this fall included $4 million to implement a geothermal test project. A second project is being developed by utility Eversource, which plans to spend $10.3 million constructing a district geothermal system in a densely populated, mixed-use area that has not yet been selected. “We’re really thinking about how we can be a catalyst for clean energy in the region,” Geothermal systems — also referred to as ground-source heat pumps — are not a new concept. They work by running pipes filled with antifreeze liquid as far as 500 feet into the ground, to a depth at which the temperature is relatively stable, usually lingering in the low 50s Fahrenheit in Massachusetts. Heat is extracted from the earth and carried through the liquid-filled pipes to warm buildings. The same principle allows for geothermal cooling as well: On hot days, a heat pump extracts heat from the air in the building and transfers it into the liquid in the pipes. The warmed liquid travels downward and its heat is released into the ground.Geothermal systems are among the cleanest and most efficient heating options. Because the heat comes from the ground itself, the only fossil fuels burned are those used to generate the electricity that runs the heat pump. This efficiency also makes them very cost-effective to operate.  “What’s new is the district idea of connecting multiple customers in a shared loop system.”

Oil Refineries See Profit in Turning Kitchen Grease Into Diesel - The New York Times — Many businesses are betting that electric and hydrogen-powered cars and trucks will play a critical role in the fight against climate change. But some oil companies are hoping that so will smelly restaurant grease and slaughterhouse waste. Companies that refine crude oil into fuel are increasingly using such putrid scraps to make a renewable version of diesel that can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from trucks, buses and industrial equipment without requiring families and businesses to invest in expensive new vehicles and factory gear. Phillips 66, Marathon, HollyFrontier and several other refiners are spending roughly $2 billion to retool refineries to produce the fuel over the next four years. Renewable diesel has been around for years, and its production, while tiny compared with its fossil fuel counterpart, has grown steadily because the federal government and California offer incentives for companies to make and sell it. That support has made the fuel even more attractive to oil refiners during the pandemic because demand for regular diesel, gasoline and jet fuel has plunged as people drive and travel less. Production of renewable diesel is up roughly 7 percent this year. If current trends continue, refineries could produce as much as 3.8 billion gallons of renewable diesel by 2025, or more than 5 percent of the total diesel production last year, according to S&P Global Platts, an energy research firm. “At a time when a lot of companies are struggling, we have this huge opportunity with companies announcing ambitious plans to build renewable diesel capacity.” Some oil refining companies believe renewable diesel could help them stay profitable as governments move to significantly reduce the use of fossil fuels to address climate change — a process that is already well underway in Europe and could accelerate in the United States during the Biden administration. Renewable diesel is appealing for several reasons. It can be used in existing diesel engines without having to be blended with regular diesel — its biggest advantage over biodiesel and ethanol, which are also made from organic material but generally cannot be used without being mixed with petroleum products. Renewable diesel, like biodiesel, is produced from waste agricultural products and animal fats, but it is processed differently to make it chemically identical to conventional petroleum diesel. People who buy diesel may not even know they are using renewable diesel because pumps can handle it, oil-based diesel or a combination of the two and typically carry no special labels. Burning renewable diesel produces between 50 and 80 percent less greenhouse gas emissions than conventional diesel, depending on which raw materials are used to make the fuel. And oil refineries can make renewable diesel with a few upgrades.

Early test for Biden: Car emissions rules -- Monday, November 30, 2020 -- As one of his biggest steps to tackle climate change, President-elect Joe Biden is expected to undo President Trump's rollback of clean car standards and set new auto emissions rules. But experts have one pressing question for the former vice president: How aggressive will the new tailpipe rules be? "The big-picture question for me is what the eventual standards will look like. They should obviously be based on what's doable and achievable," said Bethany Davis Noll, litigation director at the Institute for Policy Integrity at NYU School of Law. The climate stakes are high. The transportation sector is the largest source of greenhouse gases in the United States, accounting for 28% of carbon emissions. When President Obama introduced the first clean car standards in 2009, they were the most significant climate rules ever established in the U.S. The Obama-era rules required the average fuel economy of new vehicles to increase by 5% each year, reaching 51 mpg by 2025. Under Trump, EPA and the Department of Transportation significantly relaxed the requirements. The agencies only mandated 1.5% annual increases in fuel economy, which would require 40.5 mpg by model year 2026, and they blocked California from setting its own tougher tailpipe emissions rules. Now, Biden is expected to direct EPA and DOT to craft new clean car rules that extend beyond 2025. But first he will need to decide how stringent the new requirements should be. The president-elect will have a few options. He could model the new rules after voluntary emissions agreements between the California Air Resources Board and five automakers: Ford Motor Co., Honda Motor Co., BMW of North America, Volkswagen AG and Volvo AB.On one hand, that's less aggressive than the Obama-era rules. On the other hand, that's already been agreed to by five automakers representing a significant portion of U.S. vehicle sales. Another option would be to go further than the Obama-era rules in order to spur electric vehicle adoption and slash carbon emissions from transportation. Biden needs to go further if he wants to accomplish his goal of economywide net-zero emissions by midcentury, said Luke Tonachel, director of the clean vehicles and fuels team at the Natural Resources Defense Council."The next set of standards needs to not only regain the emissions reductions that we lost under Trump, but also put the U.S. back on a path that is really lined up with zero emissions by 2050," Tonachel said.

TRANSITION: Biden taps adviser who ties gasoline price to emissions -- Tuesday, December 1, 2020 -- President-elect Joe Biden's financial policy will be shaped — at least in part — by an economic adviser who believes fossil fuels are "severely underpriced" because they don't consider the harm caused by climate change. Biden announced yesterday that Jared Bernstein would be one of three members of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Bernstein previously served as Biden's economic adviser during his vice presidency, from 2009 to 2011, and was a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a progressive think tank in Washington. If his past comments are any guide, Bernstein will be the leading climate voice in the group. Bernstein has argued that there hasn't been a proper accounting of the economic harm caused by climate change and that bold ideas — such as the Green New Deal — are necessary to address the real cost of human-caused global warming. In a piece published last year by Vox, he wrote that a true accounting of climate change means making corporations responsible for "polluting the environment pay for the damage they're doing to the rest of us." "If the price system isn't picking up the true cost of the damage and short-sighted people — which is most of us — are okay with that, then there's a role for government to realign the higher social cost of fossil fuels with its lower actual cost," he wrote. Bernstein will be part of the three-member Council of Economic Advisers, which will be chaired by Cecilia Rouse. Rouse, who must be Senate-confirmed, is the dean of the Princeton University School of Public and International Affairs and would be the first Black woman and the fourth woman overall to lead the CEA. The third member will be Heather Boushey, president and co-founder of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. As the name suggests, the Council of Economic Advisers shapes the president's financial policy.

TEKLAS to open Georgia electric vehicle parts manufacturing plant - Atlanta Business Chronicle -TEKLAS, a Turkish manufacturing company and supplier of electric vehicle parts, announced earlier this month it would invest $6.5 million to open its first North American facility and headquarters in Gordon County, according to a press release from Gov. Brian Kemp’s office.TEKLAS’s 200,000-square-foot facility and headquarters will be located at 320 South Industrial Blvd. in Calhoun and is expected to create 120 jobs. Operations are scheduled to start in the spring of 2021.The company produces rubber hoses and plastic tubes for automotive fluid systems. It works for companies including General Motors, Volkswagen and Daimler Mercedes.The new Calhoun plant continues a growing trend of EV manufacturers locating plants in Georgia. In July, GEDIA Automotive Group announced plans to invest $85 million to build a new 180,000-square-foot manufacturing facility at the 238-acre Carbondale Business Park in Whitfield County. The plant is expected to focus on producing parts for new electric vehicles for Mercedes-Benz, which has its North American headquarters in Sandy Springs.In June, SK Innovation said it would invest $940 million to expand its EV lithium-ion battery plant in Commerce, Ga., that would create 600 jobs. The expansion would bring the company's total investment in the state for EV battery production to more than $2.6 billion.

GM rethinks planned stake in electric vehicle maker Nikola (AP) — General Motors will not be taking a stake in the electric vehicle company Nikola, and the company said Monday that it was scuttling one of its marquee vehicles, an electric and hydrogen-powered pickup, after GM pulled technological support from the project. Shares of Nikola plunged 24%. Nikola on Monday released updated terms between the companies for a supply agreement related to GM's fuel-cell system, replacing an agreement signed in September. That deal would have given GM an 11% stake in Nikola. The early agreement would also have allowed Nikola to use GM’s new battery electric truck underpinnings for its electric and hydrogen-powered pickup called the Badger, and its fuel cell and battery technology as well. That is no longer part of the agreement, essentially gutting Nikola's plans for the Badger. Nikola said Monday that it will begin refunding deposits made by customers who wanted first dibs on that pickup.

Tesla CEO says electric cars will double global electricity demand (Reuters) - Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Tuesday that electricity consumption will double if the world’s car fleets are electrified, increasing the need to expand nuclear, solar, geothermal and wind energy generating sources. Increasing the availability of sustainable energy is a major challenge as cars move from combustion engines to battery-driven electric motors, a shift which will take two decades, Musk said in a talk hosted by Berlin-based publisher Axel Springer. “It will take another 20 years for cars to be fully electric. It is like with phones, you cannot replace them all at once,” Musk said in a talk streamed on the Bild.de web site, adding that around 5% of vehicles are replaced every year.Once electric cars become the norm, electricity from intermittent generating energy sources such as wind and solar will need to be stored, probably through battery technology, he said. “Together with large battery packs, both things need to be combined, wind power with battery packs and solar energy,” Musk said. Tesla is embarking on plans to build its fourth gigafactory in Europe’s largest economy. “The best wind turbines are made in Germany,” he said. “I always have a good time when I am here. I like the engineering culture. People want to get things done.” Tesla has recently acquired a licence to trade electricity across western Europe, and the company has also been surveying customers in Germany about potentially using Tesla electricity in their cars.

Report: Illinois utility fails to deliver on smart meter benefits - ComEd customers have paid higher bills for energy delivery and seen few benefits from multibillion-dollar smart grid investments because of laws the utility pushed through the Illinois Legislature that gutted regulatory protections and guaranteed profits, a new report by a public advocacy group alleges. The report from Illinois PIRG says ComEd and its parent company Exelon saw profits skyrocket thanks to 2011 state legislation authorizing $2.6 billion in smart grid-related investments and changing how ComEd rates are set. ComEd declined an interview request but in a statement disputed the claim that customers have not benefited from its smart meters, which it says have improved reliability and reduced response times for outages, among other benefits. The law, passed despite then-Gov. Pat Quinn’s veto, is at the heart of a recent settlement with the federal government and wide-ranging allegations of bribery and misconduct involving the utility, lobbyists and elected officials. The settlement agreement states, and ComEd officials have argued, that customers were not harmed by the alleged misconduct. But Illinois PIRG’s 111-page report released Dec. 1 argues otherwise. It says customers were charged unnecessary amounts — that yielded massive profits for the companies — while ComEd and Exelon have done little to help customers access the savings and other benefits promised from the smart grid and smart meters, and have stalled on even allowing third parties to help customers benefit from smart meters. ComEd did so, Illinois PIRG argues, because the customer benefits of smart meters and smart grid improvements — lower energy use and lower bills — would hurt the bottom line of Exelon, which owns the state’s six nuclear plants. This represents a conflict of interest that has persisted despite deregulation in the late 1990s meant to sever generation from distribution, Illinois PIRG argues.

High-Voltage Power Lines Are Ugly, and the U.S. Needs More –  Places where the sun shines bright and the wind blows hard aren’t always places where a lot of people live. High-voltage transmission lines are needed to bring electricity from renewable energy installations to the towns and cities where it’s consumed. The U.S. is way behind other countries in building these lines. Fact: Since 2014, China has built 260 gigawatts of interregional transmission capacity that’s come on line or will come on line in the next few years, according to a report this month by Americans for a Clean Energy Grid. Europe is way behind at 44GW, followed by South America at 22GW and India at 12GW. Then comes North America at 7GW, with only 3GW in the U.S. (That’s the TransWest Express LLC project, which will carry power from wind turbines in Wyoming to customers in Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California.) In other words, China has built more than 80 times as much interregional transmission capacity as the U.S. in less than a decade. Most of it in China will carry power from sunny, windy, western provinces to populous eastern ones, helping the country reduce its carbon footprint without having to shut down electricity-intensive industry. In June, Bloomberg reported that State Grid Corp. of China had completed a 1,000-mile-long ultra-high-voltage line that will transmit only clean power from Qinghai and Gansu provinces to Henan in central China. Investors and utilities in the U.S. do want to build high-voltage transmission lines. There are dozens of projects at various stages of consideration, with colorful names such as Power From the Prairie, the Grain Belt Express Clean Line, and Zephyr Power Transmission. The problem is getting approval. Ownership of the U.S. power grid is balkanized, Nimby-ism is common, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has been reluctant to override local authorities to get lines sited.

Hudson River towns worry about planned power line in the river — While the Champlain Hudson Power Express from Canada to New York City is proposed to run largely under the Hudson River, a group of communities along the river want it above ground near their towns and cities so as to avoid disturbing drinking water intakes for an estimated 106,000 people. “This project is in our drinking water sources,” said Paul Malmrose, a water engineer working with the Hudson Seven, a group of municipalities in the Mid-Hudson Valley that draw water from the river. They are the Towns of Esopus, Lloyd, Hyde Park, City and Town of Poughkeepsie, as well as the Village and Town of Rhinebeck. “Over the last 10 years our (water plant) operators have been largely excluded,” Malmrose said. Among the concerns that Malmrose brought up was the potential for PCBs and other pollutants that might be stirred up during the building of the line. The Champlain Hudson Power Express is proposed by Transmission Developers Inc., a subsidiary of the of the Blackstone Group investment firm. They want to build a power line from the Canadian border more than 300 miles to New York City with the bulk of it running under Lake Champlain and the Hudson River. The project has already been approved, gaining a state Department of Public Service permit in 2013.

A Power Company’s Quiet Land-Buying Spree Could Shield It From Coal Ash Cleanup Costs — ProPublica - Over the past several years, utility giant Georgia Power has embarked on an unusual buying spree, paying top dollar for people’s property in places where cheap land was easy to find. In 2016, it bought a veterinarian’s 5-acre lot in the rolling hills of northwest Georgia for roughly double the appraised value. The following year, it acquired 28 acres of flood-prone land in southwest Georgia’s pecan belt for nearly four times what the local tax assessor said it was worth. By the year after that, it had paid millions of dollars above the appraised value for hundreds of acres near a winding gravel road in a central Georgia town with no water lines and spotty cellphone service. Two things united the properties: They were all near coal-fired power plants that generated toxic waste stored in unlined ponds at those sites. And they were all purchased after the Environmental Protection Agency finalized new regulations in 2014 governing the disposal of such waste, known as coal ash. All told, the utility paid over $15 million for nearly 1,900 acres close to five of its 12 power plant sites, according to an investigation by Georgia Health News and ProPublica. The costly land purchases offer an enormous potential payoff to Georgia Power, one of the largest producers of coal ash waste in the country, the investigation found. They may allow the utility to forestall millions of dollars in cleanup costs outlined by the December 2014 regulations. The Atlanta-based company is trying to convince regulators to allow it to leave more than half of its coal ash — around 48 million tons — in unlined ponds at plant sites spread across the state. Environmentalists believe the safest way to dispose of coal ash is to move it from unlined ponds into landfills that have a protective, and more costly, liner to prevent contaminants from seeping into groundwater — the source of drinking water for people who depend upon wells. Unlined coal ash ponds frequently leak contaminants into groundwater, according to a pair of analyses of industry-reported data conducted by advocacy groups Environmental Integrity Project and Earthjustice. Recent Georgia Power tests of groundwater show that coal ash contaminants appear to be migrating out of the ponds at some plant sites, according to experts who reviewed company filings. The new regulations require utilities to clean up contaminants if they are found at high enough levels beyond the boundaries of their plant sites. By extending those boundaries through land purchases, Georgia Power could push back the day it has to deal with its legacy of pollution, according to a dozen environmental experts, regulators and activists.

Commission to discuss underground mine testing facility on county line   — The Randolph County Commission will see a second presentation today regarding a proposed underground mine testing facility on the Randolph-Pocahontas County line.The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health wants to use the 460-acre tract near Mace as the future site of a research center and testing laboratory for underground mine safety. At the last Randolph County Commission meeting, a group of Pocahontas County residents spoke about their objections to the project and asked commissioners to write a letter to West Virginia’s federal government representatives seeking to stop the project. “This site is inappropriate for this project,” Jeanne Bell, a resident of Snowshoe, told commissioners at that meeting. “The entire surrounding community relies on drinking water from wells and springs located in the Greenbrier Limestone formation.“Our water will be vulnerable to contamination by diesel, hydraulic fluids, nitrate and ammonia from blasting, and the carcinogenic chemicals used in fire foam both above ground in the Experimental Fire Suppression Facility and underground in the mine.” “What would you do if this project were proposed in your neighborhood, across the street or upwind from your home?” Bell asked commissioners. Ellie Bell, another Pocahontas County resident who said she has a degree in soil science from West Virginia University, said, “We’re not against coal … this is just not the place for it, next to a world-renowned resort.”She said she participated in sending a letter to Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., with 350 signatures opposing the project.“Our water is well and spring,” Fred Adkins, who lives on Mingo Flats Road, told commissioners.“There’s got to be areas that are more remote (for the project).”

Blackjewel’s Ex-CEO Pushes For Chapter 7 Bankruptcy Conversion - Blackjewel LLC’s former CEO Jeffery Hoops, under investigation for mismanaging the defunct coal production company, asked to convert the company’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy to a Chapter 7 liquidation. The U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of West Virginia should put Blackjewel’s estate into the hands of a court-appointed liquidator because the company doesn’t have enough money to cover its legal bills and isn’t being rehabilitated, Hoops said in a Nov. 25 court filing.   Hoops, who’s long been alleged of mismanaging the company for his own benefit, was removed as CEO last year as a condition for Blackjewel to obtain...

Coal giant to cancel health care benefit plan for Wyoming retirees - The leading coal company operating in Wyoming will eliminate a health care benefit program for retired miners, the Star-Tribune confirmed on Wednesday. To save on costs, Peabody Energy will no longer cover medical expenses for workers on Medicare and will stop providing life insurance to retirees. The change, which was first reported by St. Louis Public Radio, was prompted after the company undertook a financial review earlier this year. Continuing to cover the cost of existing retiree medical benefits was “not sustainable,” the company concluded. Discontinuing the retiree health care program will save Peabody Energy $174.5 million.Non-represented employees and retirees in Wyoming, as well as workers in other states the company operates in, will be affected by the change.Peabody declined to disclose how many Wyoming workers would be affected. The coal operator owns the North Antelope Rochelle, Rawhide and Caballo mines in the Powder River Basin.“We regret not being able to maintain our existing retiree healthcare program; however, we are continuing to offer some financial support for pre-65 retirees,” Julie Gates, Peabody’s vice president of communications, said in a written statement. “The change in financial support is designed to maintain Peabody’s retiree medical subsidy where it is needed most — for retirees and spouses who are not yet age 65 and Medicare-eligible. The decision to allocate funds where they are needed most follows several other initiatives the company has undertaken this year to further improve our operating performance and ensure we have a scalable structure that can respond to evolving market conditions.”Earlier this month, Peabody Energy published mixed results in its quarterly financial report, showing both losses and gains in its Powder River Basin coal operations as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to destabilize energy markets. The company reported a 39% decline in revenue between July and September due in part to lower production volumes and weaker prices for exported coal.According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Peabody Energy announced the amendments to its health care benefit plan in September.The change will take effect on Jan. 1.

Coal Mine Safety Rule On Silica Dust Causing Black Lung May Change In Biden Era : NPR - The transition from a Trump administration that dismantled regulations across the federal government to a Biden administration that has signaled a greater emphasis on occupational safety and the environment may finally mean new action on a toxic form of dust in coal mines. After five decades of government inaction, spanning both Democratic and Republican administrations, a recent U.S. Department of Labor Inspector General report called the Mine Safety and Health Administration's 50-year-old standard regulating the deadly airborne silica dust "out of date," and difficult to enforce. That echoed the findings of a 2019 NPR and PBS Frontline joint investigation which analyzed decades of silica monitoring data and found that the federal government failed to respond to clear danger signs over the years, leading to an epidemic of an advanced form of black lung disease affecting thousands of coal miners. Silica gets into the air in coal mines when miners cut into sandstone as they try to extract coal. Silica particles are much more dangerous than regular coal dust particles. They are easily inhaled and can lodge in the lungs forever, leading to severe lung disease. The IG report, which calls on MSHA to enact new regulations on silica, "opens the door for the administration to take really strong action," says Celeste Monforton, lecturer in public health at Texas State University and a former federal mine safety regulator during the Clinton administration. Monforton suggests a move away from a regulatory approach based purely on sampling the air in mines, towards mining practices that would suppress silica dust. "Ultimately, what you want is a regulation that really caps or limits the amount of silica dust that is allowed to be in the air where miners are," she says.

Coleto Creek Power Plant shutting down by 2027 --The Coleto Creek Power Plant, which generates millions of dollars in tax revenues annually for Goliad County, will shut down by 2027. The Fannin coal plant, which was built in 1980, is closing due to a combination of federal environmental regulations and competition in the Texas energy market, said Brad Watson, director of community affairs for Vistra, the parent company of the plant’s owner-operator. In a memo sent to Goliad County officials this week, Watson said it would be prohibitively expensive for the plant to comply with two recently finalized rules enacted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. One of these regulates the disposal of coal ash and the other limits the level of toxic metals in wastewater discharged from power plants. “Ultimately, compliance with these EPA rules would require investment in new equipment, costing tens of millions of dollars,” the memo said. “This investment cannot be justified based on the underlying economics of the plant and the uncertainty of more stringent regulations under a new presidential administration.” The plant, which employs 62 people, paid an estimated $3.2 million in local taxes in 2017, according to previous Advocate reporting. Goliad County Judge Mike Bennett said the plant’s impending closure reinforces the need for officials to seek additional sources of tax revenue.

Feds speed sale of Three Mile Island unit amid state concern about decommissioning  -Federal regulators plan to approve the sale of Three Mile Island’s Unit 2, the nuclear reactor that partially melted down in 1979, despite concern by state officials over the new owner’s ability to pay for decommissioning.nThe proposal is expected to receive final approval Wednesday without a public hearing on the matter, according to a notice the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission sent the various parties.FirstEnergy, TMI-2\u2032s current owner, estimated in March that it would cost $1.4 billion to dismantle the plant versus the $900 million it set aside for the decades-long process. In 2019, First Energy asked the NRC to transfer its license — along with ratepayer-funded money set aside from decommissioning — to the Utah-based EnergySolutions. The global nuclear downturn has increasingly led energy companies to shutter their reactors, including Exelon’s decision to mothball Three Mile Island Unit 1. That, in turn, resulted in an opening for companies like EnergySolutions to make money off the clean up of old nuclear sites.Earlier this year, state Environmental Secretary Patrick McDonnell raised a number of concerns about the transfer, including the question of whether EnergySolutions would have enough money for the cleanup. In August, however, the state Department of Environmental Protection reached a settlement with FirstEnergy that called for the creation of a decommissioning advisory panel but did not include any financial guarantees or other safeguards like the ones included in similar agreements in California and Massachusetts. The agency now appears to have second thoughts, at least according to the NRC notice dated Nov. 23.

Feds approve sale of Three Mile Island amid concern about new owner’s ability to pay for decommissioning - pennlive.com - Federal regulators approved the sale of Three Mile Island’s Unit 2 on Wednesday to a Utah-based company that will be charged with completing the decommissioning process that began after a partial meltdown in 1979.  The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s approval came with no public hearing on the matter and amid ongoing concern by state officials over the new owner’s ability to pay for decommissioning.  In March, the previous owner FirstEnergy estimated that it would cost $1.4 billion to dismantle the plant versus the $900 million it set aside for the decades-long process. In 2019, First Energy asked the NRC to transfer its license — along with ratepayer-funded money set aside from decommissioning — to EnergySolutions.   The global nuclear downturn has increasingly led energy companies to shutter their reactors, including Exelon’s decision to mothball Three Mile Island Unit 1. That, in turn, resulted in an opening for companies like EnergySolutions to make money off the clean up of old nuclear sites.  Much of the damaged reactor core at Unit 2 was transported to Idaho in the years after the 1979 accident and, in 1993, the plant was placed into “defueling monitored storage” status. An uncertain amount contaminated material remains that will be the responsibility of EnergySolutions to safely dispose of.  The absence of a national nuclear waste repository, radioactive material from both units will likely remain at the site in Londonderry Township for the foreseeable future — possibly for decades to come.  Earlier this year, state Environmental Secretary Patrick McDonnell raised a number of concerns about the transfer, including the question of whether EnergySolutions would have enough money for the cleanup.  In August, however, the state Department of Environmental Protection reached a settlement with FirstEnergy that called for the creation of a decommissioning advisory panel but did not include any financial guarantees or other safeguards like the ones included in similar agreements in California and Massachusetts.  The agency appeared to have second thoughts, at least according to the NRC notice dated Nov. 23.  DEP spokesman Neil Shader said Monday, when PennLive reported the NRC’s expected decision, that the agency’s ongoing concerns specifically center around conditions inside the reactor. In essence: If they’re worse than FirstEnergy described in its 2019 proposal, the cleanup could cost significantly more than $1.4 billion.   In addition to approving the sale of Unit 2, the NRC also formally approved emergency planning exemptions requested by Exelon, which held that responsibility for both units. That means Exelon will no longer contribute funding to local governments and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. It also halted off-site radiation monitoring and maintenance of early warning systems.  Pennsylvania, through PEMA and the DEP, itself plans to resume at least some of the activities at the cost of taxpayers.

House Republicans call on Madigan to resign from office – Four former Commonwealth Edison officials pleaded not guilty Wednesday to charges that they engaged in a years-long bribery scheme that federal prosecutors allege was aimed at influencing Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan. Former executives Anne Pramaggiore and John Hooker, along with lobbyists Michael McClain and Jay Doherty, were arraigned on the charges in U.S. District Court in Chicago during a hearing that was held remotely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In a 50-page indictment that was unsealed Nov. 18, federal prosecutors allege the four engaged in a conspiracy to award no-work jobs and lobbying contracts to close associates of Madigan as part of an effort to maintain his support for legislation that benefited the company. Those included the 2011 Energy Infrastructure Modernization Act, which established a formula-based system of setting utility rates that effectively bypassed the Illinois Commerce Commission, and the 2016 Future Energy Jobs Act, which, among other things, provided ratepayer-funded subsidies to two nuclear power plants owned by ComEd’s parent company Exelon. During the arraignment, U.S. District Judge Harry D. Leinenweber, also a former state lawmaker, set an initial schedule that gives prosecutors and defense attorneys three months to exchange all the evidence they intend to use at trial and file pretrial motions. A status hearing is tentatively set for Feb. 16 and the defendants remain free on bond. The charges against the four defendants comes on the heels of a deferred prosecution agreement that prosecutors unveiled in July in which current ComEd officials admitted to the scheme and agreed for the company to pay a $200 million fine in exchange for cooperating with the investigation and assurances that the company would reform its internal controls. Beyond the federal charges, though, the cases have resulted in intense scrutiny for Madigan and threatened his hold on power in the House. Although he has not been charged with any crime and has denied any wrongdoing, his support within the House Democratic caucus has gradually eroded since his appearance as “Public Official A” in July’s agreement. Madigan appears to no longer have 60 pledged votes in the House to support him, the number required to be reelected for another term as speaker in January. Madigan also faces a Special Investigating Committee in the House that is charged with determining whether there is enough evidence to support disciplinary proceedings that could result in his ouster from the General Assembly. Republicans petitioned to form that committee shortly after the deferred prosecution agreement was released, and they have frequently accused Democrats of dragging their feet on the investigation in an effort to protect Madigan. Last week, however, just before the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the committee’s chairman, Rep. Emanuel “Chris” Welch, D-Hillside, released hundreds of pages of documents that the committee had requested from ComEd, including numerous emails between McClain, a former lawmaker and longtime Madigan confidant, and another former ComEd executive, Fidel Marquez, who pleaded guilty in the bribery scheme in September. Those emails strongly suggest that Madigan himself was deeply involved in urging ComEd to award jobs and contracts to his friends and associates.

Ohio AG still hopes to put nuclear bailout on hold -One way or another, Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost hopes the plan to bail out northern Ohio’s Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear power plants will be put on hold at least until the $61 million bribery scandal connected to them is settled.In an interview with The Blade at One Government Center in downtown Toledo, one of several northwest Ohio cities he visited Tuesday, Mr. Yost said he expects to get a hearing later this month for a lawsuit he filed Nov. 13 to keep $150 million in customer surcharges from being collected and passed on annually, starting in early 2021, to Energy Harbor, the two plants’ new owner-operator.“I think we’ve got a very strong case,” he said of the suit filed in Franklin County Common Pleas Court.Mr. Yost said he would have no problem, though, yielding to new legislation known as House Bill 798 if both chambers of the Ohio General Assembly pass it immediately and Gov. Mike DeWine signs it into law.That legislation, introduced by state Rep. Jim Hoops (R., Napoleon) who heads the House of Representatives committee that has been examining the repeal bills, would delay the nuclear subsidies’ collection from customers for a year.The intent is to buy lawmakers more time to decide what they want to do with House Bill 6, a law created from successful 2019 legislation that has been marred by what federal prosecutors have described as the largest political scandal in Ohio’s history.House Bill 6 has become highly controversial since the FBI indicted former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four other Republicans last summer, claiming they had concocted a $61 million bribery scheme to buy votes and, thus, ensure the legislation passed.Two of them — Householder consultant-adviser Jeff Longstreth and Columbus lobbyist Juan Cespedes — have entered guilty pleas, and now face up to 20 years in prison for their roles.Charges are still pending against Mr. Householder; Matt Borges, a lobbyist and former Ohio Republican Party chairman, and Neil Clark, a high-profile Columbus lobbyist.

Ohio lawmakers could punt on House Bill 6 repeal; push back fees 1 year – Ohio lawmakers could delay fees set to hit Ohioans' electric bills next month as they continue to debate whether to repeal a $1 billion bailout for two nuclear plants.   Rep. Jim Hoops, R-Napoleon, has proposed delaying fees for one year as lawmakers struggle to find a way to repeal and replace House Bill 6, the law at the heart of an alleged $61 million bribery scheme. Without any change, residential customers can expect an 85-cent fee each month on their electric bills starting Jan. 1.  Those fees, and larger ones assessed on businesses, would raise about $150 million a year for two nuclear plants outside Toledo and Cleveland owned by Energy Harbor, which was previously called FirstEnergy Solutions. That company argued that without that money, the plants would close.    The delay would also allow time for an audit, required under the bill, to assess how much Energy Harbor actually needs and only dole out money that allows the company to break even. Subsidies wouldn't pay for a company's lobbying costs, political or charitable donations, share buybacks, management bonuses or incentive compensation.

Here’s what HB6′s controversial ‘decoupling’ policy is and why Ohio lawmakers are trying to repeal it - cleveland.com —When the scandal-ridden House Bill 6 was passed last year, most attention was given to the law’s $1 billion-plus ratepayer bailout of two Northern Ohio nuclear power plants. But now, as lawmakers work on overhauling HB6, they’re considering repealing another part of the law -- a so-called “decoupling” provision -- that ensures a guaranteed level of income for FirstEnergy and (theoretically) other utilities.Decoupling, critics say, allows FirstEnergy to charge ratepayers a total of $355 million more through 2024 to guarantee the company a yearly revenue of $978 million. That’s the amount FirstEnergy raised in 2018 -- a year in which the utility made more money than in other recent years thanks to hot weather and other factors.House Bill 6 “essentially takes about one-third of our company and I think makes it somewhat recession-proof,” Chuck Jones, then FirstEnergy’s CEO, saidduring a call with investors last year.Eileen Mikkelsen, vice president of rates and regulatory affairs for FirstEnergy Service Company, told cleveland.com in October that the decoupling provision provides customer safeguards, as it gives rebates to customers who pay more for their electricity in a given year than they did in 2018.“This really does provide great stability and certainty, which is important to our customers,” Mikkelsen said.It also allows FirstEnergy to shoulder the cost of the reduced demand for electricity from its energy-efficiency programs, Mikkelsen continued. “We aren’t going to feel the financial strain of not collecting those dollars, which may inhibit our ability to provide safe and reliable electric service to our customers,” she said.    Mikkelsen accurately noted that other Ohio utilities have decoupling programs as well. Those were set up prior to HB6′s passage as a way to encourage utilities to create energy-efficiency programs by ensuring they wouldn’t lose money if such programs resulted in the utilities selling less electricity (in other words, “decoupling” the amount of money a utility makes from how much electricity it sells).But the “decoupling” process set up under House Bill 6 is different, as it sets a guaranteed revenue based on a specific (and unusually lucrative) year.FirstEnergy’s HB6 decoupling plan has been in place since last February, after winning approval from the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. To date, the only other Ohio utility to seek an HB6 decoupling plan is AEP, which tried unsuccessfully earlier this year to create such a plan only for commercial customers.State lawmakers are now taking initial steps toward repealing the HB6 decoupling plan and changing other parts of the law. Their action comes after then-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four allies were arrested in July and accused of running a $60 million bribery scheme with FirstEnergy money to secure the passage of HB6. House Bill 798, introduced Tuesday, would “terminate” decoupling plans set up by HB6, allowing them to remain in force only as long as it takes for the PUCO to determine whether refunds are owed to customers. The bill was introduced by the chair of the Ohio House’s special HB6 study committee with the support of new House Speaker Bob Cupp.

Columbus utility gave $900K to groups linked to HB6 scandal - A nonprofit funded by Columbus-based American Electric Power gave $900,000 over three years to two groups that don’t have to disclose their donors and are involved in a federal public corruption investigation, records show. IRS documents filed in November and obtained by the Dayton Daily News show the nonprofit Empowering Ohio’s Economy Inc. donated $550,000 in 2019, $50,000 in 2018 and $100,000 in 2017 to Generation Now, which federal prosecutors allege was the primary vehicle for funneling bribes to former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder. Empowering Ohio’s Economy also gave $200,000 to Coalition for Growth & Opportunity, another nonprofit group linked to the federal case. “Obviously, knowing what we know now, we wouldn’t have made the donations,” said J.B. Hadden, an Empowering Ohio’s Economy board member. Empowering Ohio’s Economy is run by a five member board that includes former Dayton area congressman Dave Hobson, former Ohio House speaker JoAnn Davidson, AEP’s top lobbyist Tom Froehle, and Hadden, an attorney specializing in public policy and energy issues. Empowering Ohio is designed to promote Ohio for business and tourism, according to its tax filing. It has given to charity organizations and political groups. Last year, it also gave $100,000 to the Rule of Law Defense Fund, $50,000 to Liberty Ohio and $2 million to Open Road Path. In 2018, its giving included $200,000 to the Capitol Square Foundation, $300,000 to Ohio Works, $525,000 to State Solutions Inc, $50,000 to Rule of Law Defense Fund and other entities. In 2017, its giving included $250,000 to Two Paths America, $50,000 to Ohioans for Justice and $50,000 to Ohio Works as well as other groups. AEP supported House Bill 6, which extended monthly surcharges earmarked to help coal-fired power plants owned by the Ohio Valley Electricity Corp. OVEC’s consortium of owners includes AEP, Duke and DP&L. HB6 is at the center of a public corruption case. Former Ohio House speaker Larry Householder and four other men are charged with racketeering. Prosecutors allege an unnamed company, identified through descriptions as Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp. and its former subsidiary, funneled more than $60 million in bribe money to Generation Now and other dark money groups. The money was used to elect pro-Householder Republicans to the Ohio House so Householder could return as House speaker. In turn, Householder helped pass HB6 and defend it from a referendum attempt in the fall of 2019.

 FirstEnergy credit rating hits 'junk' status amid HB 6 fallout - S&P Global Ratings and Moody's downgraded FirstEnergy's credit rating to 'junk' status on Tuesday after the company tapped into its existing revolving credit lines backed by a consortium of large banks. Fitch downgraded its FirstEnergy ratings a week ago following the company's third quarter earnings report detailing why it had earlier fired its CEO and four other top executives in the wake of an ongoing federal political corruption probe. The downgrades came just hours before a federal judge handling the bankruptcy of former FirstEnergy subsidiary FirstEnergy Solutions (FES) refused to allow final payments to the law firm handling the case until four of its top lawyers explained their involvement, if any, in lobbying efforts to pass legislation providing up to $1.3 billion to subsidize operations of FirstEnergy's former nuclear plants. In an 8-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Tuesday, the company said certain of its distribution and transmission companies tapped into the revolving credit facility "as a proactive measure to increase their respective cash positions and preserve financial flexibility. " The distribution companies borrowed $950 million under the revolving loan fund, leaving $1.3 billion available for future borrowing, if necessary. The transmission companies borrowed $1 billion, the total amount available. FirstEnergy declined to comment. The decision to tap the credit lines does not reflect the healthy revenue stream and profitability the company reported for the third quarter. The company said it earned $454 million, or 84 cents per share, on revenues of $3 billion for the quarter. That compares to $391 million, or 72 cents per share on revenues of $3 billion in the third quarter of 2019. Instead, it appears directly related to the potential ratings impact of the ongoing Justice Department probe into how Ohio's former Speaker of the House, backed by nearly $61 million in corporate funding, managed to allegedly persuade other legislators into supporting a $1.3 billion bailout of FirstEnergy's former nuclear power plants. FirstEnergy had sought a bailout for five years before the passage of House Bill 6 in 2019. The federal probe into alleged political corruption — to which a political consultant and a lobbyist have already pled guilty — and FirstEnergy's potential fine for its alleged role in that corruption — earlier this week prompted Samuel Randazzo, the chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, to abruptly resign. The probe also has led FirstEnergy's board of directors to launch an internal examination of the corporate culture, whether its code of conduct is adequate and whether employees are following it. In its detailed third quarter 10-Q filed with the SEC on Nov. 19, weeks after the earnings were informally announced, the board of directors explained that it fired former CEO Charles Jones for violating certain provisions of the code of conduct. The board also fired four other top executives and announced that its internal investigation is still underway. And it revealed the top executives had approved payment of about $4 million in early 2019 to terminate a six-year consulting contract with a company believed to be owned by Randazzo, who was appointed chair of the PUCO in February 2019. S&P said the downgrade was necessary, given the situation in which the company finds itself.

Ohio utilities commission moves to replace regulator who resigned after FBI search - cleveland.com -- The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio has begun the process of replacing its former chairman who resigned earlier this month after his home was searched by the FBI.The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio Nominating Council announced Monday it is seeking applications for the empty commission spot, vacant since former PUCO Chairman Sam Randazzo resigned on Nov. 20.The term, one of five on the PUCO, will expire on April 10, 2024. The nominating council, a panel of 12 people who mostly are appointed by the governor and state legislative leaders, is responsible for screening possible PUCO commissioners and making a recommendation to the governor, who makes the final decision.Candidates must have at least three years’ experience in one or more of the following fields: economics, law, finance, accounting, engineering, physical or natural sciences, natural resources or environmental studies.The PUCO oversees the regulation of utilities in Ohio. Commissioners’ salary range is from $73,715 to $195,728.The process is the same that led the PUCO nominating council to submit Randazzo’s name and three others to Gov. Mike DeWine last January. DeWine picked Randazzo, a lawyer who previously had represented utilities and large industrial utility users before the PUCO.Randazzo resigned the same week the FBI searched his Columbus home, and a day after FirstEnergy Corp. revealed in a filing that it fired CEO Chuck Jonesand two other senior executives last month over a questionable $4 million payment the company made in early 2019 to an entity associated with an unnamed person who subsequently was hired by the state to regulate utilities.In a resignation letter, Randazzo said the impression left by the FBI raid and FirstEnergy’s filing, along with the accompanying publicity, “will, right or wrong, fuel suspicions about and controversy over decisions I may render in my current capacity.”

Top regulator’s exit raises questions about utility and fossil fuel influence - Critics question whether the former Ohio utility commission chair should have recused himself more often to avoid any appearance of bias.  Concerns about the outsized influence of utility and fossil fuel interests have resurfaced as the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio begins steps to name a new commissioner after the sudden exit of Chair Sam Randazzo.   Randazzo resigned on Nov. 20 after an FBI team had searched his home and FirstEnergy released a mandatory quarterly report to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The report showed the company paid $4 million to an entity associated with Randazzo shortly before his appointment last year. Now the Public Utilities Commission, or PUCO, has put out a call for applicants to fill the vacancy. Under Ohio law, a nominating council will review the applications and then nominate four candidates to the governor. Advocates have criticized the council, which only has one seat for a consumer advocate, as being too heavily tilted toward utility interests. “It’s crazy that Gov. DeWine is represented on the PUCO Nominating Council by Mike Koren, who has lobbied for FirstEnergy,” said Dave Anderson, policy and communications manager for the Energy & Policy Institute. “Plus, [council member] Mark Totman works for a union that gave money to Generation Now, the group indicted alongside former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder.”  In a similar vein, Michael Watkins, who chairs the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel Governing Board, asked Koren to hold a special meeting of the nominating council to consider “if events related to tainted House Bill 6 warrant any changes for the Council, including changes in its chairpersonship.”   Koren did not agree to the request. Instead, his response said he had been unanimously selected as council chair “for the calendar year 2020” and that the council would interview and select candidates to fill Randazzo’s vacancy by Dec. 21.  Randazzo himself had served on the nominating council multiple times before becoming chair of the PUCO and Ohio Power Siting Board. In 2016 he had urged fellow committee members not to nominate a lawyer who had represented wind energy developers.

Empowering Ohio provided grants to nonprofit central in HB 6 scandal -- A board member with a Columbus-based, American Electric Power-funded nonprofit said Thursday that a separate group central in theHouse Bill 6 nuclear plant bailout scandal appears to have used grants, including $550,000 newly disclosed in tax filings late last month, for political purposes in violation of its agreement.  J.B. Hadden, an attorney who serves on the board of Empowering Ohio’s Economy Inc., told The Dispatch that the nonprofit's grant agreement with Generation Now required the funding be used in compliance with IRS laws and for social welfare purposes only.  Part of the agreement with Generation Now which he provided to The Dispatch stated the money was not to be used "in furtherance of any political or campaign intervention activities."Another section of the agreement stated, though, that money could be spent "educating, equipping, and mobilizing our citizens to take action on critical economic and legislative issues ... We are committed to advancing legislative policies that will strengthen our economy security, and one of our strategies is to partner with other tax-exempt, non-profit organizations to help promote such policies."Hadden also said Empowering Ohio was not aware of what prosecutors have ranked among the largest corruption scandals in state history when it provided funding to Generation Now, learning of the criminal allegations after former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four others were arrested in July.Empowering Ohio disclosed in tax filings in 2017, ’18 and ’19 that it gave $700,000 to Generation Now, a dark money group formed by a longtime associate of Householder. Another $200,000 was provided to the Coalition for Growth & Opportunity of Lexington, Kentucky, a group that backed the 2018 Ohio House campaigns of Householder-favored Republican candidates. The totals were disclosed in 990 forms, the tax filings submitted by nonprofits to the IRS. The most recent came Nov. 25 and listed grants and other assistance to five different groups, including $2 million to Open Road Path Inc.

 Owners of closed Weathersfield injection well win supreme court case - The Ohio Supreme Court has ruled in favor of a company that has been trying to restart an oil and gas drilling waste disposal well since it was shut down after a 2014 earthquake in Weathersfield.In a 5 to 1 decision, the justices ruled Wednesday on a case brought by American Water Management Services, which claims the Ohio Division of Oil and Gas imposed unreasonable restrictions, prohibiting them from putting it's well #2 back in service along State Route 169.AWMS was ordered to stop pumping brine into both of its injection wells at the site following a 2.1 magnitude earthquake on August 31, 2014. Injection wells are drilled to hold waste liquids collected during the gas and oil exploration process known as "fracking". The division allowed operations to resume at a shallower well but kept the second well-closed due to concerns over public safety. In addition to citing the earthquake at the Weathersfield location, state officials cited other seismic activity at two other well operations in the Valley. In support of its decision to keep the well closed, the division noted there were 12 earthquake events between March 2011 to Dec 2011, including a 4.0 magnitude tremor at the Northstar injection well in Youngstown and a 3.0 magnitude earthquake on March 14, 2014, at the Hilcorp wells in Poland. Both the Hilcorp and Northstar wells have since ceased operations. The division cited a study that the Weathersfield well is located near a fault that is like the fault associated with the seismic activity of the Northstar well.In its ruling sending the case back to the 11^th District Court of Appeals, the Supreme Court note that AWMS tried on two separate occasions to give the state a plan to restart the well, but was either ignored of rebuffed. The justices concluded that AWMS was justified in pursuing compensation for the investment lost over the years, due to what AWMS believes was the state essentially “taking” their property during the well’s shutdown. AWMS has estimated a loss of more than $20 million because of the closing of the well. The appellate court has been ordered to reconsider the economic impact of the well closing, and whether the state’s suspension of AWMS’s operations constituted a “total taking” by depriving AWMS of all economically beneficial use of the well.

Wolf vetoes conventional oil, natural gas legislation - Gov. Tom Wolf recently vetoed bipartisan legislation that was designed to help strengthen the future of Pennsylvania’s 160-year-old conventional oil and natural gas industry as well as its workforce. Senate Bill 790 would have enacted the Conventional Oil and Gas Wells Act to govern and regulate the conventional, shallow-well oil and gas industry and end unfair industry regulations set by the state’s Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) under Act 13 of 2012, which are supposed to address more impactful unconventional natural gas drilling activities. “There are major differences between unconventional deep-well drilling and conventional, shallow-well drilling…differences that this administration continues to ignore because it doesn’t fit their narrative,” state Rep. Martin Causer (R-Turtlepoint) said on Nov. 25. “The industry is struggling immensely, and a significant cause of that struggle is the lack of understanding and purposeful misrepresentation of how our conventional oil and gas operations work in a safe and environmentally conscious manner.” The legislation passed the House in May with a vote of 109-93. The Senate passed the bill in October 2019 with a vote of 26-23. Following the return of the House amended version, the Senate passed the legislation in November with a vote of 29-19. In his veto statement, Wolf noted that he did not believe the legislation addressed the distinct challenges within the conventional oil and natural gas industry in a manner that would adequately protect the environment or public health and safety. He also stated that the bill would “contribute to a legacy of environmental degradation.”

Pa. DEP advancing new rules for conventional oil wells after veto of industry-backed bill - The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection is pushing ahead to strengthen regulations specific to the state’s conventional oil and gas industry. But first it is trying to win back the industry’s confidence. Proposed updates to the rules have stagnated for more than a year while the industry sought to craft a new — and, in some respects, weaker — law tailored to its operations. That attempt foundered last week when Gov. Tom Wolf vetoed Senate Bill 790, saying it “would contribute to a legacy of environmental degradation.” While the bill aimed to address distinct challenges faced by the conventional oil and gas industry, whose operations are smaller and less expensive than Marcellus and Utica shale drillers’, it also would have rolled back protections for drinking water supplies and public resources, allowed more spills to go unreported and avoided erosion permitting requirements, Mr. Wolf wrote. The governor’s veto was no surprise. Mr. Wolf, a Democrat, vowed to do so in January, when the bill was last amended. The bill passed by the Republican-led House in May and Senate in November contained the same provisions Mr. Wolf and DEP objected to at the start of the year. Still, with the veto fresh in mind, leaders of conventional oil and gas companies, trade groups and their allies in the Legislature called DEP out as untrustworthy on Thursday during an industry-led advisory committee meeting held by video conference. The primary items on the agenda were two sets of rules for waste management and above-ground activities at conventional oil and gas sites that DEP wants to update through its authority under Pennsylvania’s existing environmental laws. “DEP has now chosen to flex their muscles and teach us all a lesson,” said David Clark, president of the Pennsylvania Grade Crude Oil Coalition. “Ramming the most punitive set of regulations on this industry to date, during the worst commodity collapse in 20 years, is appalling.”  

Families and advocates criticize Pa.’s fracking health studies - Two state-funded studies to determine whether fracking had anything to do with a group of childhood cancer cases in southwestern Pennsylvania are receiving criticism from advocates for affected families. Gov. Wolf announced the studies last year after pressure from families of cancer patients in Washington County. The state says it will be partnering with an academic institution to conduct the studies, but has not announced which one. But at a recent online ‘town hall’ on the topic, advocates for the families of some of children and young adults who have been diagnosed with Ewing sarcoma, a rare cancer, say they are being cut out of the process of constructing the studies. The department rejected their request to establish a “process overview panel” that would consist of community members and public health experts to advise scientists on how to conduct the studies, said Laura Dagley, a nurse and medical advocacy coordinator with Physicians for Social Responsibility, an environmental health group working with the families. “It would not only provide crucial insight and expertise to the department in the execution of these studies, but we hoped it would go a long way towards building and maintaining trust with the community,” Dagley said. Dagley said the Department of Health officials rejected another request to examine radioactivity in fracking waste as part of the study. “We were told…that the studies were funded at the request of the community to focus on unconventional oil and gas activity, not radioactive waste streams,” Dagley said. “This statement from the Department of Health, it shows a complete lack of understanding of…not only what the community is asking for, (but) a lack of understanding of the radioactivity that is present in oil and gas operations.”Drill cuttings and liquid waste from oil and gas can contain high levels of naturally-occuring radioactive materials, like radium. High levels of radium have been detected in leachate, or runoff, from landfills that accept drill cuttings in Pennsylvania. And scientists recently found airborne radioactivity levels werehigher downwind of fracking sites.    Dozens of children and young adults have been diagnosed with Ewing sarcoma and other forms of cancer in a four-county area outside Pittsburgh, where energy companies have drilled more than 3,500 wells since 2008. The cases were first reported by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

 Federal agency refuses to extend construction deadline for National Fuel pipeline -- National Fuel was premature in requesting an extension of its deadline to complete a new $500 million pipeline to carry natural gas from northern Pennsylvania to Canada through Western New York. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Tuesday rejected the request from National Fuel and its Empire Pipeline subsidiary to push the construction deadline for the Northern Access pipeline from February 2022 to December 2024. Although FERC said it was too soon for the company to ask for such an extension, it rejected National Fuel's Oct. 16 request "without prejudice," meaning the company is free to ask again when the question is more timely. "We remain fully committed to this project and, as indicated in the FERC comments, we are able to file again," National Fuel spokeswoman Karen L. Merkel said. "We're glad they denied it," said Diana Strablow, vice chairwoman of the Sierra Club's Niagara Group. The seven-page FERC ruling noted that 64 comments, all negative, were received during a 15-day public comment period. "I think they had an impact," Strablow said. The state Department of Environmental Conservation has tried to block the pipeline project by refusing to grant a water quality permit that would allow the 24-inch-wide pipeline to cross 192 streams in Allegany, Cattaraugus and Erie counties. National Fuel has won every lawsuit over the pipeline so far, winning eminent domain rights to take land along the route, overcoming a Pendleton law that would have impeded the construction of two gas compressors in that Niagara County town, and defeating the DEC over its refusal to grant the stream crossing permit. One last lawsuit over the latter issue remains pending before the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals in New York City. In its FERC request, National Fuel referred to the delays caused by litigation as a reason for seeking an extension of the construction deadline. It would have been the second extension. FERC's original approval for the project in February 2017 gave the company two years to complete it, but in January 2019, FERC granted a three-year extension. Strablow said the project has been pending for so long – it was first announced in 2013 – that National Fuel ought to be required to complete a new environmental impact study. "New York's climate laws have changed," Strablow said. "Right now, under the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, New York is laying out the implementation plans to transition our state off of fossil fuels. There will be no market for new gas in New York State." The 97-mile pipeline would carry fracked gas from McKean County, Pa., to connect to an existing Canadian pipeline beneath the Niagara River at Chippawa, Ont.

de Blasio calls for end of Brooklyn natural gas pipeline -  Mayor de Blasio has come out against a controversial project to create a natural gas pipeline in northern Brooklyn. “Climate change is an existential threat to our city and we must transition quickly to clean energy,” he said in a Thursday statement. “I am voicing my opposition to National Grid’s North Brooklyn Pipeline because we cannot justify the environmental impacts on the largely Black and Brown residents of Brooklyn associated with an unnecessary pipeline expansion. “Racial and environmental justice go hand-in-hand, and National Grid has failed to clearly demonstrate that this pipeline is needed to keep New Yorkers warm and safe,” Hizzoner concluded. “I am calling on them to withdraw this project immediately.” National Grid broke ground on the project in 2018 and has faced protests from activists and some lawmakers since. The seven-mile pipeline would bring natural gas from Pennsylvania and run from Brownsville, Bedford-Stuyvesant, Bushwick and East Williamsburg to National Grid’s Maspeth Ave. depot. A number of blocks in those areas have already been torn up to make way for the project, according to reports.

Weymouth compressor station to come back online starting Dec. 4— Crews will soon begin the process of bringing the recently-constructed natural gas compressor back online after two emergency shutdowns at the plant in September prompted federal regulators to halt operations. Max Bergeron, a spokesman for the Canadian company that built the compressor station, said in an email Tuesday that the process of putting the station back in service will start Dec. 4 with oversight from the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Bergeron said the process will require the controlled venting of natural gas to remove any air in the piping before the facility is pressurized with natural gas. He said the process is expected to take a few days, and neighbors, first responders and state and local officials have been notified. Bergeron said venting of natural gas may occur intermittently between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. from Dec. 4 to 11. “The controlled venting of natural gas is a safe and routine procedure, and the gas which is vented will naturally dissipate. Algonquin Gas Transmission representatives will be on site during this work, and monitors that constantly measure the levels of natural gas will be used,” Bergeron said. "We are committed to being good neighbors and operating the compressor station safely and responsibly." The controversial compressor station is part of Enbridge’s Atlantic Bridge project, which expands the company’s natural gas pipelines from New Jersey into Canada. It has been a point of contention for years among community members, who say it presents serious health and safety problems.

Scuttle N.J. LNG site before Trump rides approval into sunset  - In Gloucester County’s Greenwich Township, New Fortress Energy is proposing to build a massive new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, which would create an array of public health and safety risks. To get gas that was fracked in Pennsylvania to the port terminal in Gibbstown, New Fortress plans to use either a fleet of rail cars untested for LNG transport, or rely on hundreds of trucks traveling to and from the site daily. Either scheme could endanger millions of residents along a nearly 200-mile transportation route. The volatile, super-cooled, liquified gas would be loaded onto tankers traveling near Philadelphia International Airport and under the Delaware Memorial Bridge. The threat of a leak or fire represents a potentially deadly risk, especially if the LNG turns into vapor. Even a small ignition source could create a huge fire.  Despite these obvious dangers, New Fortress received a special, first-of-its-kind permit from the Trump administration to ship LNG to the site by rail. The special permit has, thus far, evaded the federal oversight normally required for these projects — including an assessment of its cumulative environmental and public safety impacts.  The terminal project, known overall as the Gibbstown Logistics Center, could creep one step closer to reality at a Dec. 9 meeting of the Delaware River Basin Commission, the multi-state agency that is tasked with protecting this vital waterway. The commission has been asked to grant a permit for a dock needed to load the gas onto ships for export. The DRBC vote could be the last chance for the Trump administration — the federal government has one seat on the commission — to greenlight this exploitative gas export scheme. While fossil-fuel boosters talk about how drilling gives us a chance to achieve “energy independence,” fracking has already produced a surplus of natural gas, leaving a debt-ridden industry desperately seeking ways to stay afloat. The gas shipped from South Jersey would be exported to other countries, which is all part of New Fortress’ global business model. The company already has a terminal in Florida to send fracked gas to the Caribbean, and has received criticism over a pending contract to supply the fuel to a power authority in Puerto Rico.

Fate of the Mountain Valley Pipeline? -It wasn’t that long ago that Virginia was slated for not one, but two, new natural gas pipelines. Dominion Energy recently scrapped its plan for the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, citing high costs and a pivot to more renewable energy in its portfolio. And that has people wondering about the fate of the Mountain Valley Pipeline as construction delays mount and costs rise.The pandemic has cut demand for energy and led to lower prices.  But utilities and private energy companies take the long view.  These projects are years in the planning and not easy to alter, for a myriad of reasons, once the ball is rolling.“A lot of money has been spent on this one, ” says Roger Conrad, an energy industry analyst in northern Virginia. He says it wasn’t clear, in Mountain Valley Pipeline’s most recent earnings call, exactly how close to completion it is. “But, previously we'd heard numbers like 93%, complete, implying that all they had to do is just overcome a couple of additional regulatory hurdles, procedural things, and then they could get this thing completed.”But obstacles remain, from stream crossing permits in limbo to tenacious tree sitters protesting the pipeline in one small section of its path in Montgomery County. And perhaps the biggest hurdle of all: The mounting financial costs as time goes by.Conrad says he thinks it's "kind of extraordinary" that the company did announce it's expected costs for completion."A lot of people would be familiar with these figures already: They increased the mid-point of what they thought their costs would be. But they also are now talking about a 2021 startup date, which of course is pretty amorphous as well.”The initial plan had completion by the end of 2018, at a cost of around $3 billion. The new estimate is $5.8 to $6 billion.Conrads sees  "a lot of uncertainty, the longer it takes to get the work completed and the pipeline open. The lesson has been pretty clear that, (the uncertainty  reduces odds that (the Mountain Valley Pipeline) actually does, eventually operate.” More confident that the pipeline will go into service as planned  is the Independent Oil and Gas Association of West Virginia. Executive Director, Charlie Burd, said in a statement: “The importance of the MVP to West Virginia, in terms of infrastructure investment, jobs, tax revenues generated at local county and state level, cannot be overestimated."Conrad also believes there will be a strong market for gas from the Mountain Valley Pipeline; plenty of buyers, at potentially lower than normal cost.But there’s been a shift in the wind on energy production during the time it’s taken to build the MVP“That of course, is the electric industry itself. Every year, the Edison Electric Institute has an annual meeting where they get together, it’s for financial analysts to interact. But what you hear there is, the emphasis on ‘energy transition,’ which means more renewables and (ESG) Environmental Social Governance. These are things you didn't hear about at all just a few years ago but now that the industry has made a full pivot in that direction.”

Federal appeals court explains stay of Mountain Valley Pipeline waterbody construction | News | herald-dispatch.com— The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals issued an opinion Tuesday explaining a stay of construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline across about 1,000 waterbodies in West Virginia and Virginia that it granted last month, stating the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ approval of water permitting for the project was likely illegal.The court’s Nov. 9 stay will remain in effect until it decides whether to overturn water permitting from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for the project, designed to be a 303-mile natural gas pipeline system traveling from Northwestern West Virginia to Southern Virginia crossing Wetzel, Harrison, Doddridge, Lewis, Braxton, Webster, Nicholas, Greenbrier, Fayette, Summers and Monroe counties in the Mountain State.Environmental groups, including the Sierra Club, the West Virginia Rivers Coalition and the West Virginia Highlands Conservancy, challenged the corps’ September re-issuance of Nationwide Permit 12 approval. The 4th Circuit had, in 2018, vacated a previous version of the NWP 12 verification issued by the Corps of Engineers' Huntington District the previous year.But the court said the environmental groups were unlikely to succeed in their challenges of the corps issuance of the 2017 NWP 12 because it probably lacks jurisdiction to consider the challenge.Under NWP 12, projects do not need separate permits for individual waterbodies. By operating under that federal permit, the MVP would not have to go through the more time-consuming process of obtaining individual permits for specific projects under the Clean Water Act.In its opinion, the court highlighted what it viewed as the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection’s lack of authority to walk back a water permitting condition it adopted.The DEP imposed a special condition as part of its 2017 certification of NWP 12 stipulating that individual state water quality certification is required for pipelines equal to or greater than 36 inches in diameter or pipelines that cross a river regulated by the federal Rivers and Harbors Act of 1899. The MVP is greater than 36 inches in diameter and is designed to run through three such rivers: the Elk, the Gauley and the Greenbrier.The DEP later purported to waive its requirement that the pipeline obtain an individual water quality certification, but the court ruled the DEP had to engage in proper notice and comment procedures before it could waive the requirement and vacated the Huntington District verification for that reason.

Virginia Lawmaker Coordinated Support for Mountain Valley Pipeline With Project’s Lobbyist - -- A Virginia state lawmaker coordinated with an energy lobbyist to support a controversial gas pipeline, the Energy and Policy Institute has found. Delegate Les Adams, a Republican representing Henry and Pittsylvania Counties, coordinated his official letter to the federal government with an oil and gas lobbyist who works for the pipeline’s proponent. In September, Adams wrote a letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in support of Mountain Valley Pipeline’s request for an extension of the project’s in-service date. FERC approved the 300-mile pipeline in 2017, but its completion has stalled due to legal battles, as well as ongoing opposition from landowners and environmental activists. The pipeline is a joint venture of energy and utility companies, including Equitrans, NextEra, Con Edison, WGL Midstream, and RGC Midstream. If completed, it will bring fracked gas from West Virginia to southern Virginia. The letter Adams submitted to FERC, which has been reviewed by the Energy and Policy Institute, shows that he carbon copied Maurice Royster. Royster is a veteran Tennessee-based fossil fuel lobbyist who is registered in Virginia to lobby for Equitrans, the main stakeholder in the pipeline. In a phone conversation with the Energy and Policy Institute, Royster acknowledged he discussed the matter with Adams. “You know, I probably talked to him,” Royster said, adding that he’s spoken to a number of Virginia state lawmakers during the comment period as part of his advocacy for the pipeline. Asked if he provided Adams with a template letter, Royster said he did not. Delegate Adams did not respond to a request for comment.

 Eastern Shore gas pipeline project gets key environmental approval from Maryland’s Board of Public Works - Baltimore Sun -- The Maryland Board of Public Works voted Wednesday to approve a key environmental license for an Eastern Shore pipeline project that would extend natural gas service to Somerset County — particularly to the University of Maryland Eastern Shore and the Eastern Correctional Institute.The nearly 7-mile buried pipeline has received fierce opposition from environmentalists, who say constructing it would mean disregarding the state’s commitment to renewable energy. Local advocates, meanwhile, argue that Somerset County, one of the state’s poorest, deserves access to natural gas infrastructure so it can attract meaningful economic development. Further, they say natural gas would mean greener energy for both the university and prison, which currently use dirtier fuels like propane.

January Natural Gas Futures Climb as Winter Weather Moves in and Cash Prices Jump - The January Nymex contract rose 3.9 cents day/day to settle at $2.882/MMBtu after taking over as the prompt month following the Thanksgiving holiday. February advanced 3.3 cents to $2.865. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. soared 60.5 cents to $2.825 as temperatures were colder to start the week across the nation’s midsection following benign weather over the long holiday weekend. Chilly rains doused swaths of the East. For futures, Bespoke Weather Services said the potential for a winter freeze after a warm November appeared to be the leading “catalyst for the move higher” Monday. “The pattern depicted as we move toward the middle of the month is one that hints at drawing some stronger cold out of Canada into the U.S. pattern,” the forecaster said. “Any true cold could target the middle of the nation most, as the pattern shifts more toward a typical La Niña state.” EBW Analytics Group said that, “following exceedingly mild weather in mid-November and the Thanksgiving holiday,” even briefly cooler temperatures to start the week “may allow weather-driven demand this week to springboard 10.0 Bcf/d higher” week/week. Additionally, a “seasonal progression towards colder temperatures” before mid-December, could drive gas demand “another 8.5 Bcf/d higher next week.” Liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes hung above 10 Bcf Monday, near an all-time high, while production levels were stable from the prior week. Genscape Inc. estimated LNG feed gas demand of 10.14 Bcf/d for Monday’s gas day, a 176 MMcf/d day/day increase to start the week. “Interstate pipeline feed gas nominations have averaged 9.40 Bcf/d over the past seven days,” Genscape analyst Allison Hurley said Monday. “Demand from facilities on the Gulf Coast accounted for 9.14 Bcf/d,” while the Cove Point and Elba Island LNG facilities “combined for the remaining 1 Bcf/d.” Amid the shift in weather, analysts are anticipating a second consecutive withdrawal with this week’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report. Bespoke, for one, models a 25 Bcf pull from gas stockpiles for the week ended Nov. 27.

US natgas little changed as lower demand offsets record LNG exports - US natural gas futures held steady on Tuesday as forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks offset an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to a fresh record high. Front-month gas futures fell 0.2 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $2.880 per million British thermal units. Data provider Refinitiv said average output in the Lower 48 US states rose to a seven-month high of 91.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, up from 87.8 bcfd in October. Traders said some of that output increase was due to higher oil prices. Oil futures gained about 27% in November on expectations global energy demand and economic activity would rebound in 2021 once coronavirus vaccines become widely available. Rising oil prices over the last few months encouraged energy firms to drill for more crude. Those oil wells also produce a lot of associated gas. With a seasonal cooling of the weather, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 112.9 bcfd this week to 115.6 bcfd next week. But that was lower than Refinitiv forecast on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants averaged a record 9.9 bcfd in November, up from 7.7 bcfd in October, as rising prices in Europe and Asia in recent months prompted global buyers to purchase more US gas. That tops the 9.8-bcfd US LNG export capacity and the prior all-time monthly high of 8.7 bcfd in February, which was before buyers started canceling cargoes due to coronavirus demand destruction. LNG plants can pull in a little more gas than they can export since they use some of the fuel to run the facility. In addition, the third liquefaction train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Corpus Christi plant in Texas is pulling in gas as it prepares to enter commercial service.

US working natural gas volumes in underground storage fall 1 Bcf: EIA | S&P Global Platts — US natural gas in storage fell only 1 Bcf during the week that featured the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, drawing down Henry Hub futures further, but withdrawals should return to more normal levels in the weeks ahead on the back of cooler weather. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up Storage inventories dipped to 3.939 Tcf for the week ended Nov. 27, the US Energy Information Administration reported the morning of Dec. 3. The withdrawal was less than an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 13 Bcf pull. Responses to the survey ranged from a 4 Bcf injection to a 23 Bcf withdrawal. The build was also well below the 21 Bcf draw reported during the same week a year ago as well as the five-year average withdrawal of 41 Bcf, according to EIA data. Mild temperatures interacted with the demand-draining Thanksgiving holiday weekend. As a result, total demand dropped 1.4 Bcf/d week on week, with residential-commercial making up most of that decline, according to Platts Analytics. Total supply did not follow demand lower, increasing the implied looseness observed in the EIA report. Domestic production rose 1.1 Bcf/d, led by the Northeast, Southeast, and Texas. Storage volumes now stand 343 Bcf, or 11.5%, above the year-ago level of 3.596 Tcf and 290 Bcf, or 8%, above the five-year average of 3.649 Tcf. Gas prices tumbled this week, with the prompt-month January contract leading the dive. Entering the report, the January contract was off more than 8% day on day — down to a multi-month low near $2.54/MMBtu and marking a near $1.00/MMBtu contraction in price over the past month as very mild temperatures in November and concerns over the weather in December have sparked a massive liquidation in speculative length, according to Platts Analytics. After the report was issued at 10:30 am ET, prices pared some of the declines, rising near $2.57/MMBtu as some market participants feared an injection would be reported. Nevertheless, with the January contract now trading at a discount to the February contract and peak summer months, the winter premium has now completely vanished. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts an 85 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 4, which would shrink the surplus versus the five-year average by 24 Bcf as cooler weather spikes US-level demand week on week. Colder weather and a return from the Thanksgiving holiday pushed demand up 9 Bcf/d on the week. The following week's draw should near triple digits if weather forecasts hold true. 

US natural gas futures drop on milder weather - US natural gas futures dropped almost 10% to an eight-week low on Thursday on forecasts for milder weather in mid-December than previously expected and a smaller-than-expected storage draw last week. The price plunge came despite record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said US utilities pulled just 1 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the warmer-than-normal week ended Nov. 27. That was less than the 12-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 22 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average withdrawal of 41 bcf. "Today's warm shift in weather forecasts and an exceedingly bearish, marginal storage withdrawal may be the final nail in the coffin for the 2020-21 winter trade," said Daniel Myers, market analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston. Front-month gas futures for January delivery fell 27.3 cents, or 9.8%, to settle at $2.507 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Oct. 2 and their biggest daily percentage drop since November 16. That price collapse put futures for February over January for the first time since the contracts started trading in 2009. Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states averaged 91.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, flat with November's seven-month high but well below the all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. 

Natural Gas Longs Scurry for Exits, Send Forward Prices Crashing Lower - Natural Gas Intelligence - Wrapping up one of the warmest Novembers in U.S. history, natural gas winter forward prices plunged during the Nov. 25-Dec. 2 period as the weather outlook for December grew milder, according to NGI’s Forward Look. January prices averaged 18.0 cents lower over the period, which included the extended Thanksgiving holiday, while the balance of winter (January-March) tumbled an average 16.0 cents. Losses extended through the rest of the curve but were less pronounced, with the summer 2021 strip (April-October) falling 6.0 cents on average and the winter 2021-2022 sliding 7.0 cents on average, Forward Look data showed. At the heart of the retreat is an increasingly warm outlook for December. The coming two-week span is generally forecast for moderate temperatures across much of the country. There were hopes of a mid-month cold front, however, Wednesday’s weather models lessened those chances and subsequent runs deteriorated the outlook even further. Even with other more supportive factors weighing on the market, the balmy turn in the December outlook quickly sent futures prices crashing. The January Nymex settled Wednesday at $2.780, off 10 cents day/day and off 18 cents from Nov. 25.   A fair price prior to Wednesday’s midday weather model runs was “easily $3.00,” according to Lovern, but the market could never get there. That fight got a little tougher on Thursday when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a measly 1 Bcf withdrawal from storage inventories for the week ending Nov. 27, which was more than 10 Bcf lower than consensus. The reference period included the Thanksgiving holiday, which always makes estimating the storage change a bit more difficult. But it also factored in millions of people staying home for the holidays and strong global gas demand in key U.S. export markets.  Lovern said the EIA’s 1 Bcf draw is “very weak, even factoring in the holiday.” Participants on The Desk’s online chat Enelyst noted the EIA figure indicates the market is nowhere close to tight.. Ahead of Thursday’s EIA report, consensus had built around a draw in the mid- to high teens Bcf range. The EIA’s 1 Bcf draw compares with a 22 Bcf pull last year and the five-year 41 Bcf average draw. Broken down by region, the Midwest reported an 11 Bcf withdrawal from storage, while the Mountain and Pacific regions each notched a 2 Bcf decline in inventories, according to EIA. The East reported no change in stocks, and the South Central added a whopping 14 Bcf. This included 12 Bcf into salt facilities and 2 Bcf into nonsalts. Total working gas in storage as of Nov. 27 stood at 3,939 Bcf, which is 343 Bcf higher than year-ago levels and 290 Bcf above the five-year average, EIA said.

Natural Gas Futures Regain Pulse Following Massacre, but Weather Looks ‘Increasingly Unfriendly’ -After Thursday’s bloodbath, natural gas futures rebounded a bit on Friday even as weather models continued to add warmth to the December outlook. The January Nymex gas futures contract finished the week at $2.575/MMBtu, up 6.8 cents day/day. February picked up 7.1 cents to reach $2.586. Spot gas prices were mixed, with the most notable changes occurring in the Northeast ahead of a quick-moving cold blast. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. picked up 5.5 cents to $2.530. Natural gas traders waking up Friday morning may have had their heads still spinning from Thursday’s dizzying tumble in the futures markets. The prompt month was down nearly 20 cents soon after the open in what EBW Analytics Group characterized as “panic-selling” after the latest weather models trended even warmer for December. January went on to settle at $2.507. Friday’s action was a bit less volatile. After the carnage of the last two days, Bespoke Weather Services said it may become popular to try to determine if it was a “capitulation bottom,” but picking tops and bottoms in any market is “inherently very difficult.” While Thursday’s move was clearly about much more than weather, the moves in the weather pattern were looking “increasingly unfriendly” to bulls yet again, Bespoke said, as the positive Eastern Pacific Oscillation’s return increased the risk for more demand losses to come. The increasingly mild December forecast doesn’t bode well for plump storage inventories that have struggled to shed some of the weight amassed during the summer. After an early start to the traditional withdrawal season, the market since then has recorded a couple of weeks with little change in stocks and some weeks with injections. On Thursday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a meager 1 Bcf draw from inventories for the week ending Nov. 27, which included Thanksgiving. While a small draw was to be expected given the holiday week, the 1 Bcf pull was more than 10 Bcf lower than the consensus draw. Compared to degree days and normal seasonality, including around 14 Bcf of holiday impact, the reported withdrawal appeared loose versus the prior five-year average by around 0.5 Bcf/d, according to Genscape Inc.

 State extends Enbridge Line 5 tunnel application review to January -  The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) is extending its review of Enbridge Energy’s permit applications to build a utility tunnel and house a new section of the controversial Line 5 oil pipeline under the bedrock of the Straits of Mackinac. The department now plans to issue a decision in January 2021. Scott Dean, spokesman for EGLE, said the department has to review close to 2,800 comments submitted to the department, along with around 400 comments given verbally during public meetings. “EGLE is still carefully considering the thousands of public comments on these applications in addition to the report we received in November from the State Historic Preservation Office,” Dean said. “Given the significant amount of public participation and state agency input related to these permit applications, we thought it reasonable to request an extension from the applicant and they agreed.” Enbridge has agreed to the extension despite ongoing battles with the state over the use of the current 67-year-old line that carries oil and natural gas liquids from Wisconsin to Ontario, across both Michigan peninsulas, with part going through the Straits of Mackinac. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer recently ordered Enbridge to shut down Line 5. She said the Canadian company has violated its 1953 easement multiple times, and that the state has a duty to protect the Great Lakes. Whitmer has given Enbridge until May 2021 to shut it down - well before the proposed tunnel would be finished.In turn, Enbridge sued the state, accusing Whitmer of violating the U.S. Constitution by revoking the easement, and asking a federal judge to block the order.The tunnel project was started in 2018 when Republican Rick Snyder was governor. It has been a point of contention for Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel’s administrations, with Nessel involved in an ongoing lawsuit to overturn the tunnel agreement.Enbridge has a sea of permits to collect before it can begin the project. EGLE is debating whether to grant a National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System Wastewater permit. The company needs the permit for the construction and post-construction phases of the project because of water being taken out of and going into the Straits as a result of the tunnel.Enbridge has also requested a permit from EGLE involving the impact on potential wetlands.There is also Enbridge’s permit request with the Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC). The MPSC will consider Enbridge’s request to “site” the line, meaning it needs permission to replace and relocate the portion of Line 5 that runs under the Straits. The MPSC permit is expected to be ruled on in the summer of 2021.

Once-Ignored Promises to Tribes Could Change the Environmental Landscape -  Last month, Michigan officials announced plans to shut down a controversial oil pipeline that runs below the Great Lakes at the Straits of Mackinac. Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel, both Democrats, cited several reasons for the decision, including one that got the attention of tribal leaders in Michigan who have been fighting the pipeline for years. In the shutdown order, Whitmer referenced an 1836 treaty in which tribal nations ceded more than a third of the territory that would become Michigan in exchange for the right to hunt and fish on the land in perpetuity. An oil spill from the pipeline would destroy the state’s ability to honor that right, Whitmer said. Federal and state officials signed nearly 400 treaties with tribal nations in the 18th and 19th centuries. Threatened by genocidal violence, the tribes signed away much of their land. But they secured promises that they could continue to hunt, fish and gather wild food on the territory they were giving up. Many treaties also include cash payments, mineral rights and promises of health care and education. For the most part, the U.S. has ignored its obligations. Game wardens have targeted and arrested tribal members seeking to exercise their hunting and fishing rights. Governments and private interests have logged and developed on hunting grounds, blocked and polluted waterways with dams and destroyed vast beds of wild rice. If Native treaty rights had been honored, the natural landscape of the U.S. might look very different today. In recent years, some courts, political leaders and regulators have decided it’s time to start honoring those treaty obligations. Some legal experts think that asserting these rights could prevent—or even reverse—environmental degradation. . “It is always a struggle to get state governments to recognize the existence of our treaties, our rights and their responsibilities to not impair those rights,” Bryan Newland, chair of the Bay Mills Indian Community in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, said . “It’s not enough to recognize our right to harvest. State governments have a responsibility to stop harming and degrading this fishery. This was a big step in tribal-state relations.” Attorney Bill Rastetter, who represents the Grand Traverse Band of Ottawa and Chippewa Indians, another Michigan tribe, said tribal members invoking a treaty can make a stronger legal claim than non-Native citizens raising the same issue as an environmental complaint. “With environmental claims, there is sometimes a balancing test that’s applied between the potential harm and potential good,” said Rastetter, who has been part of efforts opposing the pipeline in Michigan. “But when you’re dealing with the diminishment of a right reserved by tribes, there ought not to be that balancing test.” Still, tribes have mostly used treaty rights claims to play defense against new infringements by developers and polluters. Some tribal members say new treaty violations are surfacing faster than old ones are being corrected.  Some legal experts are also wary about making sweeping treaty assertions, for fear that coming up short could set a dangerous precedent. “There’s been an effort to try to be careful about what you give a court the chance to decide,” Rastetter said. “If they decide against you, you might not get another bite at the apple. We have to not just have a claim, but we have to go through the pragmatic analysis of how it may work out.”

Enbridge sues Michigan over Line 5 shutdown order -- Enbridge Energy is suing the State of Michigan in federal court in hopes of thwarting Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s quest to shut down the Line 5 petroleum pipeline.The Canadian company’s filing in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Michigan seeks an injunction against Whitmer’s shutdown orders. The suit repeats a familiar argument the company has made in past disputes with the state: that federal regulators with the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration are in charge of pipeline safety, not the state of Michigan. As a result, Enbridge argues, Michigan has no authority to shut down Line 5 over alleged safety concerns.“The attempt to shut down Line 5 interferes with the comprehensive federal regulation of pipeline safety and burdens interstate and foreign commerce in clear violation of federal law and the US Constitution,” an announcement from the company states. In its filing, the company argued Michigan’s shutdown order interferes with federal authority in a way that “would create a disturbing precedent” and encourage “copycat” actions in other states.The move follows Whitmer’s Nov. 13 announcement that she has ordered Enbridge to shut down the pipeline running across the bottom of the Straits of Mackinac by May for fear that its continued operation would pose an unacceptable oil spill risk in the Great Lakes. Whitmer ordered the shutdown after a state Department of Natural Resources review concluded Enbridge has violated the terms of the state easement that grants the company permission to operate Line 5 in the lake bottom of the Straits. The DNR review also concluded the easement should never have been granted, because allowing Line 5 to operate in the straits violates the public’s overriding interest in protecting the Great Lakes.  As a result, Whitmer notified Enbridge that the state is revoking and terminating the easement. In conjunction with Whitmer’s order, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel sued Enbridge in Ingham County Circuit Court, seeking legal reinforcement of Whitmer’s decision. With Tuesday’s filing, Enbridge also filed paperwork seeking to remove the state’s Ingham County lawsuit to federal court. A spokesman for Nessel’s office said only that state lawyers have not yet had a chance to review the filing. “Once we do, we will discuss it with our clients and determine the appropriate next steps,”

 Michigan Express Pipeline project aims to secure propane supply -A Plan B for Michigan’s propane supply scene is the top priority of a new energy and renewables infrastructure company called Silver Wolf Midstream. Niel Rootare, a business development executive with a career focus in energy, formed Silver Wolf Midstream earlier this year with the goal of acquiring and repurposing a natural gas pipeline in Michigan for propane supply and distribution throughout much of the state. “This project was begging to get done somehow,” Rootare says. “The truth is, there was not going to be a viable propane pipeline solution if it had to be built new.” Instead, Silver Wolf Midstream is in the final stages of securing an existing 225-mile, 8-in. coated steel line, which it’s naming the Michigan Express Pipeline. Shell Oil Co. had built the natural gas pipeline in 1974 to transport ethane, Rootare explains, but market demand for ethane in the area waned in recent years due to new product sources coming online, including in the Marcellus and Utica shale regions of Ohio and Pennsylvania. With Michigan among the largest propane-consuming states in the U.S. and with ongoing governmental threats to Enbridge’s Line 5 natural gas liquids and light crude oil pipeline that has run under the Straits of Mackinac since 1953, Rootare saw the need to enhance propane’s distribution channels locally. “The Line 5 discussion created this anxiety and question around propane security and supply in the state of Michigan,” Rootare says. “What’s our Plan B? I can talk about Plan B, and that’s what I think this is. It’s highlighted the need for a project like this to come to fruition.” Once it closes on the pipeline acquisition, expected before year’s end, Silver Wolf Midstream looks to undertake the capital expenditures portion of the project. The effort includes the installation of pumping stations and additional terminal locations before the company begins to flow propane in the third quarter of 2021, Rootare says. The Michigan Express Pipeline will feature three locations where trucks can load propane: an existing terminal in Kalkaska, at the northern end of the pipeline, and additional terminals are planned in Nelson and Farwell, in the center of the state. “They were strategically placed based on consumption models for the market and accessibility for trucks,” Rootare says. Once online, the pipeline will have a volume capacity of 500,000 gallons per day in the first year, with expectations for growth, Rootare says. He also estimates the pipeline will supply 65 million gallons of propane to the market in that first year.

Comin' to America, Part 3 - PADD 2 Refineries Continue a Years-Long Shift to Canadian Crude | RBN Energy -- Fifteen years ago, just before the dawn of the Shale Era, more than 1.8 MMb/d of Gulf Coast and imported crude oil was being piped and barged north from PADD 3 to refineries in the Midwest. By 2019, those northbound flows had fallen by half, to less than 930 Mb/d, and in the first nine months of  this year they averaged only 550 Mb/d. Refineries in PADD 2, many now equipped with cokers and other hardware that enables them to break down heavy, sour crude into valuable refined products, have replaced those barrels — and more — with piped- and railed-in imports of favorably priced crude from Western Canada, including a lot of dilbit and railbit from Alberta’s oil sands. Today, we discuss the evolution of feedstock supply to the Midwest refinery sector. This is the third episode in our series on the changing face of U.S. crude oil imports in each of the five PADDs. InPart 1, we said that the Shale Revolution, combined with the development of the oil sands and other hydrocarbon resources in Western Canada, led to a dramatic decline in U.S. oil receipts from OPEC countries in particular and, to a lesser extent, from non-OPEC countries (other than Canada), and a big increase in imports from Canada. In 2005, the U.S. imported an average of 4.8 MMb/d from OPEC, 1.6 MMb/d from Canada, and 3.7 MMb/d from other non-OPEC countries, including 1.6 MMb/d from Mexico, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). By last year, imports from OPEC had decreased by almost 70%, to 1.5 MMb/d, while imports from Canada had increased by more than 135% to 3.8 MMb/d. Imports from other non-OPEC countries, in turn, had fallen by almost 60% to 1.5 MMb/d, and imports from Mexico — a subset of the non-OPEC countries — had plummeted by more than 60%, to about 600 Mb/d. In Part 2, we zeroed in on PADD 1, which is quirky from a refining perspective in that it produces virtually no oil (about 70 Mb/d, on average, so far in 2020, much of it superlight oil or condensate), and that nearly all of the oil refined there — domestic or imported — needs to be delivered by railroad tank cars or ships. We noted that refinery demand for oil in PADD 1 averaged around 1.1 MMb/d for most of the past decade, but has plummeted by half (to less than 600 Mb/d) due to a combination of the June 2019 closure of the 335-Mb/d Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) refinery (after an explosion and fire) and the demand-destroying effects of COVID-19. As for PADD 1’s sources of oil supply, that jumped around through the 2010s, from almost 100% imports in 2010-12 to a mix of imports and railed-in Bakken crude in 2013-15, then back to a preponderance of imports in the latter years of the decade — all in an effort to maximize the refiners’ profitability. East Coast refineries generally lack the sophisticated, complex equipment to break down heavy crude slates into refined products, but the situation is quite different in PADD 2, whose oil imports, refineries, and crude slates are the focus of today’s blog.

Another Pipeline Hits Regulator Roadblock - Virginia Natural Gas had hoped to expand its network to supply a power plant in Charles City County, southeast of Richmond, – a plant that has not yet been built. Chesapeake Bay Foundation lawyer Taylor Lilley argued against the project. “Virginia Natural Gas was proposing a 6-part project. It was going to include three segments of pipeline adding up to about 24.1 miles total and then three compressor stations – the construction of two new ones and the expansion of an existing one.” She told the State Corporation Commission that the project would threaten 153 acres of wetlands and 313 acres of forest. The utility could apply again for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity, but Lilley says making its case will be even more difficult. "They are going to be doing that in a much different regulatory landscape than they were when they first submitted this application. Virginia now has an environmental justice act, the Clean Economy Act and a new energy plan, all of which are very black and white about how the Commonwealth feels about environmental justice, its role in decisionmaking, and also the future that the Commonwealth sees as far as its energy portfolio. Quite frankly, it doesn't seem to include infrastructure like Virginia Natural Gas's Header Improvement Project." The Chesapeake Bay Foundation also argued that the pipeline expansion would put an undue burden on low income communities already stuck with a landfill and two compressor stations by further polluting the air in the city of Chesapeake, Prince William, Fauquier, Caroline, Hanover, Henrico, New Kent and Charles City Counties.

Piedmont halts north Greenville gas pipeline plans after outcry, will assess other routes -- When Matt Craft found out that a proposed Piedmont Natural Gas pipeline wanted an easement across the back half of his five acres in the Travelers Rest area, he vowed to fight. The company wanted at least a 50-foot right of way and told him his long driveway could also be an access road to the pipeline if it were built. That would have put a pipeline near his son’s tree fort and made the back half of his land unusable for building, an idea he and his wife had kicked around. So he and his neighbors started to organize. They saw it as a David vs. Goliath matchup of a few dozen landowners against Duke Energy, a multibillion-dollar utility company that owns Piedmont Natural Gas. So when Craft got a call the day after Thanksgiving from Brooks Smith, another landowner, telling him she received a letter from Piedmont Natural Gas informing her the company would not use her 18-acre homestead for the pipeline, he jumped in his truck and drove straight to his mailbox. He ripped open an envelope and found he won, too. Piedmont had reconsidered and wouldn’t use his property. “I almost started crying,” Craft said. It was a spark of good news in an otherwise difficult year, he said. In all, more than 30 property owners along a proposed route for a new 10- to 14-mile natural gas transmission pipeline have received letters from Piedmont that the company determined their land was no longer being considered for the new line. Those receiving letters included landowners at each proposed terminus of the project, meaning the company has canceled the Beaverdam Creek route from Taylors to Travelers Rest. .

Deepwater crude oil export project looks to build offshore Louisiana; feds seek public input - Dallas-based Energy Transfer LP is seeking to replace an existing offshore natural gas platform and build a crude oil export project in the Gulf of Mexico 99 miles offshore from Cameron Parish in southwest Louisiana. The Maritime Administration, in coordination with the U.S. Coast Guard, is holding two virtual public meetings for Cameron Parish residents from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. Wednesday and Thursday and created a website for more information while it prepares an environmental impact report. Energy Transfer, which already has plans for Lake Charles LNG, a liquefied natural gas export terminal in Calcasieu Parish, hopes to begin construction on the oil export platform during the fourth quarter of 2021 and begin commercial service by third-quarter 2023, according to its application. The Maritime Administration is considering issuing a license to the business for its deepwater port, which could load up to 80,000 barrels of crude oil every hour onto very large oil carriers too large to visit onshore ports. The maximum capacity would be 2 million barrels per day. The facility would be a competitor to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which was built in the late 1970s as an import facility about 20 miles offshore from Port Fourchon, then retrofitted for exports. The import facility is collectively owned and operated by Marathon, Shell and Valero. The oil port stands in 110 feet of water and has 60 million barrels of crude oil storage capacity inside underground caverns that are naturally occurring salt domes. The oil port can export up to 1.2 million barrels of crude oil each day. Energy Transfer, the parent company of Sunoco, is expected to transfer crude oil from a Sunoco storage terminal in Texas to its new subsidiary Blue Marlin Offshore Port LLC's deepwater platform. The company expects to export both light- and heavy-grade crudes. Energy Transfer already operates the largest above-ground crude oil storage facility in the U.S. in Nederland, Texas, which is the destination for long-haul pipelines from Bakken and Permian shale plays.

Proximity to Texas oil refineries increases cancer risk, study finds -  A multi-year study completed by local researchers found that Texans who live nearest to oil refineries are at significantly higher risk of getting cancer.The study, recently published in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, was conducted by a team of physicians, scientists, and students at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston. The researchers used Texas Cancer Registry and Census data from 2001 through 2014, to compare rates of cancer of people within 30 miles of 28 active Texas oil refineries.The study found a clear correlation between distance from an oil refinery and rate of all cancer types. Of the more than 800,000 cancer patients living in Texas during that period, 34 percent lived in close proximity to an oil refinery. Patients living within 10 miles of refineries were most likely to have an advanced cancer diagnosis, compared to those who lived 21 to 30 miles away.Previous studies across the globe have shown that toxins associated with oil-refinery processes pose a high risk of cancer to nearby residents. Cancer-causing pollutants most commonly associated with refineries include benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene compounds. As oil production in the United States has soared — 18.8 million barrels per day — and with Texas as the country’s leading producer, public health concerns have been raised on behalf of those living and working near oil refineries. One of the co-authors of the study, Stephen Williams, chief of urology at the medical branch and a professor of urology and radiology at UTMB, hoped the findings would leverage a collaborative effort with some of the state’s oil refineries to determine causes of illnesses among their employees. The team of researchers plans to apply for a grant from the Cancer Prevention Research Institute of Texas to further investigate their findings. “There have been studies that have been done, particularly by the individual oil refineries themselves with their own employees, and there are data to suggest increased cancer among those particular individuals when they compare to the general population,” Williams said. “But these have either been done not recently, and then (it) also begs the question of whether or not they would allow investigators such as ourselves to look into this a little bit further.”

 Tellurian withdraws U.S. application to build Permian natgas pipeline (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc told federal energy regulators on Tuesday it wants to withdraw its application to build the Permian Global Access natural gas pipeline in Texas and Louisiana. The filing with the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) comes a day after Tellurian said its President and Chief Executive Meg Gentle will leave the company. In what has been a tough year for the LNG industry after coronavirus demand destruction caused global energy prices to collapse, Tellurian said in the filing that “current market conditions do not support the economic thresholds to pursue the (Permian pipe) further at this time.” Tellurian said it “continues to believe that in time the proposed project will provide significant benefits” and it will host a new open season “in the event market conditions rebound and the market needs an additional transportation solution.” The 625-mile (1,005-km) Permian pipeline was designed to transport up to 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas from the Permian shale in West Texas and eastern New Mexico to southwest Louisiana near where Tellurian wants to build the Driftwood LNG export plant. In addition to the Permian pipe, Tellurian has also proposed to build the 4.0-bcfd Driftwood, 2.0-bcfd Haynesville Global Access and 2.0-bcfd Delhi Connector gas pipelines in Louisiana. The company has estimated the Permian pipe would have cost about $4.2 billion, Driftwood about $2.3 billion and Haynesville and Delhi around $1.4 billion each. In the past, Tellurian estimated the Driftwood project would cost about $27.5 billion and include the pipelines, the 3.6-bcfd LNG export plant, and gas production and other assets. But in August, the company reduced the cost of the first phase of the project by deferring most of the pipelines and including liquefaction trains capable of producing around 2 bcfd of LNG.

US oil, gas rig count rises 1 to 396 as adds in domestic plays slow: Enverus - — The US oil and gas total rig count rose by one in the week ending Dec. 2 to 396, rig data provider Enverus said, with totals reaching close to half the pre-pandemic levels of early March and more than 40% higher than it was in the July trough.The net one-rig add came from the natural gas side, as gas rigs rose by five to 110, while oil rigs fell by four to 286.The slight week-on-week rise showed a slowing of recent drilling activity, as the count has risen in recent months often by double-digits per week, with upstream operators attempting to shore up falling production from activity cutbacks earlier in the year when the pandemic caused a massive plunge in oil prices.The total US rig count is inching closer to 50% of mid-March levels following recent weekly gains, Platts Analytics noted in a Nov. 30 Spotlight report.Mid-March 2020 was the start of the large weekly tumbles in domestic rig counts. From levels of 835 at the time, the rig count plummeted 67% in four months.Since the early July trough of 279, the rig count has gained 117 rigs.Although the rig count uptick appears to have quieted in advance of the December holiday season, activity could "pick back up after the new year and into February," S&P Global Platts Analytics analyst Matt Andre said. Big US unconventional producer EOG Resources was the biggest mover this week, adding five rigs, Andre said."Rigs in top gas plays have returned to about 90% of the mid-March count," the Spotlight report said of plays such as the Marcellus Shale, the Haynesville Shale and the Utica Shale. "However, rigs in top oil basins, which experienced a sharper decline and slower recovery, remain at about 40% of mid-March levels."Gas prices grew in the week ended Dec. 2, with Henry Hub prices averaging $2.79/MMBtu, up 55 cents, and Dominion South at $1.95/MMBtu, up 58 cents.Average horizontal rig activity, typically employing rigs in unconventional basins with more-productive wells, is now on pace to finish more than 25% higher quarter on quarter, investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt said.

Growth in Oil Drilling Spurs US Rig Count Higher; Natural Gas Rigs Decrease -- Another week of growth in the oil patch lifted the U.S. rig count three units to 323 for the week ending Friday (Dec. 4), according to the latest figures published by oilfield services provider Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). The United States saw a net increase of five oil-directed rigs for the week, offsetting a decline of two natural gas-directed units. The combined U.S. tally ended the period nearly 500 rigs shy of the 799 active units in the year-ago period, according to the BKR numbers, which are based on data provided in part by Enverus Drillinginfo. Over the past three months, the U.S. count has risen by nearly 70 rigs, and oil-directed drilling has accounted for nearly all of that increase. The natural gas rig count has seen relatively little growth during that time frame. U.S. natural gas rigs stood at 72 in early September, versus 75 during the current week, BKR data show. Land drilling increased by two in the United States for the week, while one rig was added in the Gulf of Mexico. Horizontal rigs increased by six, along with the addition of one vertical unit. Those gains were partially offset by a net decrease of four directional rigs. The overall Canadian rig count was flat week/week, with a two-rig increase in oil rigs offsetting a two-rig decrease in natural gas rigs. The Canadian count finished the period 36 units behind its year-ago total of 138. The combined North American rig count ended the week at 425, versus 937 in the year-ago period. Among major plays, the Permian Basin led the way during the week, picking up three rigs to grow its total to 164, versus 400 a year ago. The Denver-Julesburg/Niobrara formation added two rigs for the week, while the Utica Shale added one. The Marcellus Shale posted a net decrease of two rigs week/week. Broken down by state, BKR recorded a three-rig decline in Pennsylvania, with California and Wyoming each dropping one rig from their respective totals. Texas, Colorado and West Virginia each saw a net increase of two rigs for the week, while Louisiana and New Mexico each added one.

Despite fear in Oklahoma, Biden likely won’t be ‘banning’ fracking – – President Donald Trump offered a warning to Oklahoma and other energy-rich states during the final months of his unsuccessful reelection bid. The president cautioned that if Joe Biden won, the new Democratic president would quickly take action on an aggressive climate-change agenda, specifically by banning fracking across the country, a move he said would eliminate thousands of oil and gas jobs. “Well, that means Texas is going to be one of the most unemployed states in our country,” the president said during a news conference in July. “That means Oklahoma, North Dakota, New Mexico are going to be a disaster.” Biden’s actual written energy plan, however, previews a much different agenda. Contrary to Trump’s claims, which have been rated as false by several fact-checkers, Biden does not plan a wholesale ban on old or new fracking. His climate strategy includes a proposal to only cease approving new oil and gas permits on federal lands. In Oklahoma, where less than 2% of the land is owned by the federal government, the effect of fulfilling the campaign promise would be far from the dire scenarios Trump suggested for the state’s oil and gas industry. Energy leaders and environmental activists say that although they see a Biden administration looking much different from its predecessor, they do not see a widespread ban on fracking anytime soon. Instead, experts are planning for a return – and in some cases, an expansion – of the Obama-era energy and climate strategy Trump has largely dismantled.

LAW: Energy industry braces for Biden-era court clashes -- Monday, November 30, 2020 -- As the official transition to the Biden administration begins, the energy industry is preparing for a new round of courtroom battles against the president-elect's anticipated tightening of restrictions on U.S. fossil fuel development. Trade groups are watching carefully to gauge how far Biden is willing to go to regulate the energy sector and limit activities like hydraulic fracturing. Some organizations are already preparing to bring the new administration to court. "One thing that the industry learned during the Obama years was, they would sue on almost everything," said James Coleman, a law professor at Southern Methodist University. Action on Biden's campaign pledge to halt all new permits for fracking on public lands could trigger lawsuits, as could potential efforts to conduct programmatic analyses of federal energy development. Any bids by the incoming administration to halt lease sales or permitting approvals could also draw industry challenges. Just as environmental groups and blue states teamed up in court against the Trump administration, industry interests and red states are expected to tee off against Biden. Coleman said he expects to see some of the same collaborations between trade groups and Republican attorneys general who opposed high-profile, Obama-era regulations like the Clean Power Plan. Likely red-state challengers include oil-rich Texas and coal-rich West Virginia (Greenwire, Nov. 18). Proponents of fossil fuel development aren't the only challengers that are likely to take on the Biden administration in court. Green energy groups, for example, may join forces with the natural gas industry to push for increased infrastructure development. "I think that a lot of the trade associations will stick together, even on things where they might not see completely eye to eye," Coleman said.

Joe Biden: Pro-oil president? -- -- Joe Biden was accused during the presidential campaign of planning for the end of oil, but some analysts say the president-elect won't hurt — and may actually help — the industry. The pandemic has forced dozens of oil and gas producers out of business and sparked a wave of cost-cutting, debt reduction and consolidation among surviving companies. That has added to industry warnings that a crackdown by Biden as president could interrupt energy production and spark a deep economic decline. "You're talking big job losses, nearly a million jobs through the entire economy by 2022," Dean Foreman, chief economist for the American Petroleum Institute, said in a panel last week hosted by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, speaking about Biden's proposals. But others say the Biden administration may force the oil and gas sector to comply with investors' increasingly climate-conscious demands and help it adapt and survive longer in a carbon-conscious world. The president-elect's proposals on issues such as methane also could align the U.S. more with other countries, giving a potential boost to U.S. gas, analysts say. Biden's energy plan touches on oil and gas development in several ways, perhaps most prominently by calling for an end to oil and gas leasing on public lands, which accounts for roughly a quarter of U.S. oil production depending on the year. Biden was accused of calling for a ban on hydraulic fracturing during the campaign, but he has not been firm on a fracking ban and denied any ban on private land. Biden also calls for modifying royalties to account for climate costs and ending fossil fuel subsidies. It's unclear at this point how high a priority those policies are for Biden, considering some were not mentioned with other energy initiatives on his transition website. But the tightened regulatory approach could be beneficial to companies after the "Wild West mentality" of greater access to drilling rights across federal lands and reduced oversight on issues like methane pollution that characterized the Trump era, said Jen Snyder, director at Enverus, an energy data firm based in Austin, Texas. With the oil and gas industry facing a finite amount of time to be a prominent player in the energy mix, an improved relationship to the rest of society and state officials could be important and extend the industry's viability, some argue, pointing to states like Colorado and California that have started a crackdown on the side effects of drilling.

 Sen. Chuck Grassley proposes 50% hike in oil, gas royalties on federal lands  - Sen. Chuck Grassley is calling for an end to an “outrageous giveaway” to oil and gas companies by raising the royalties they pay for oil and gas production on federal lands by 50 percent. The increase would end what the Iowa Republican calls an “unnecessary subsidy” to Big Oil by updating the royalties established in the century-old Mineral Leasing Act when automobiles had just started to replace the horse and buggy, and the oil industry relatively new. Grassley and New Mexico Democratic Sen. Tom Udall are proposing the Fair Returns for Public Lands Act. “As senators from different parties, we have our share of policy differences,” they wrote in a New York Times Op-Ed piece published Wednesday. “In this case, we agree that oil and gas companies should pay fair market value for the public resources they extract and sell. They aren’t doing that now — not even close — and the American public is the big loser.” However, Grassley said Wednesday it won’t be easy to win support for the measure even though it may seem like common-sense legislation. “Very difficult,” he told reporters, “unless you get it into something that deals with, let’s say, infrastructure, roads and highways, things of that nature.” Grassley, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, has found bipartisan support for increasing the federal gas tax to raise $93 billion to fund a 2019 Senate Public Works and Environment Committee plan for transportation infrastructure. However, neither Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell nor Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer supports the measure. The federal per-gallon fuel tax, last raised in 1993, is 18.4 cents on gasoline and 24.4 on diesel. “So it would be difficult to get passed unless it was in a bigger package of things, to reach a compromise,” Grassley said. Nevertheless, Grassley called the proposal “more a matter of principle ... a matter of consistency and fairness.” He’s proposing to increase the royalty for new leases on federal lands from 12.5 percent of the value extracted to 18.75 percent — the same as the royalty on offshore production. By comparison, the current royalty is half what Texas levies. The proposed increase would raise $200 million in federal revenue over the next 10 years as it is phased in, with an equivalent amount going to the states where the oil or gas is being extracted, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Minnesota tribes file to halt pipeline approval due to virus (AP) — Two Native American tribes in northern Minnesota are asking state regulators to stop the imminent construction of Enbridge Energy’s Line 3 crude oil pipeline replacement, saying it would increase the risk of coronavirus infections spreading.The Red Lake and White Earth Bands of Chippewa filed a motion late Wednesday asking the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to stay its approval of the $2.6 billion project. They argue construction would put locals at increased risk of coronavirus infections as workers move into the area.The bands and other pipeline opponents have sued and protested to try to block the project, and an appeal by the state Commerce Department is pending. They want the PUC to halt the project while that legal challenge plays out.The pipeline project took a step forward on Monday when the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers approved the final federal permit needed. The Public Utilities Commission has already approved the project several times, but still needs to give construction a final green light.Enbridge says the pipeline replacement will provide a safer way to transport the oil to Midwest refineries while creating 4,200 construction jobs and generating millions of dollars in local spending and tax revenues.Opponents say the project threatens spills in pristine waters where Native Americans harvest wild rice and that the Canadian tar sands oil it would carry would aggravate climate change.

Enbridge cleared to begin construction work on $2.6B pipeline across Minnesota - After six years of review, Enbridge is now poised to begin construction on its controversial $2.6 billion oil pipeline across northern Minnesota. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency on Monday approved a construction stormwater permit — the last OK needed for workers to break ground on the Line 3 replacement pipeline that will run from the northwest corner of the state to a terminal in Superior, Wis. The agency issued waterway permits earlier this month for the project, which is a replacement for Enbridge's existing 50-year-old Line 3 pipeline. The Army Corps of Engineers also recently issued a waterway permit, and the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission gave its final approvals. "Line 3 is poised to provide significant economic benefits for counties, small businesses, Native American communities, and union members — bringing 4,200 family-sustaining, mostly local construction jobs, millions of dollars in local spending and additional tax revenues at a time when northern Minnesota needs it most," Enbridge said in a statement Monday. Unions and pipeline advocates cheered the news and said construction will benefit the state's economy especially as the pandemic continues to keep folks out of work. "Even before the pandemic we were struggling with unemployment in northern Minnesota — now more than ever do we need the jobs," said Joel Smith, the state president of Laborers' International Union of North America. "Thousands of our friends and neighbors across Minnesota look forward to using their construction skills to protect our environment and communities by replacing an existing deteriorating pipeline." Smith said he expects crews to start working in the coming days; Enbridge did not give a start date.

Construction on Enbridge pipeline begins as new lawsuit filed to delay $2.6B project -Less than a day after state regulators gave the final approval for Enbridge to start building a new $2.6 billion pipeline across northern Minnesota, the Canadian oil company got to work.The building began "across Minnesota," Enbridge said, even as environmental and Indigenous groups launched another lawsuit seeking to stop construction."We will continue to use every legal avenue available to stop the degradation of our waters for future generations to enjoy our treaty-protected resources on and off reservation," White Earth Band of Ojibwe attorney Frank Bibeau said in a statement Tuesday.The suit challenges the construction stormwater permit issued by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and claims the MPCA gave "virtually no consideration of long-term impacts" to the climate or treaty rights.It joins several legal actions seeking to stop or at least stall construction of the 340-mile pipeline that would carry an average 760,000 barrels of oil per day between Alberta and the Enbridge terminal in Superior, Wis.Last week the Red Lake Band of Chippewa and the White Earth Band asked the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to pause its approval of pipeline construction while the Minnesota Court of Appeals considers permit challenges.The PUC will consider that request at 10 a.m. Friday."Some big questions need to be asked: What if the Appeals Court sides against Enbridge in the legal cases before it?" said Honor the Earth Executive Director Winona LaDuke in a statement Tuesday.Enbridge previously said in a statement that the bands' petition "only seeks to delay" the new pipeline. "There is no legitimate basis for this filing. The Line 3 replacement project has passed every test."

Doctors seek halt to Enbridge pipeline project because of COVID concerns - Health professionals and northern Minnesota residents pleaded with Gov. Tim Walz to halt construction of Enbridge’s controversial $2.6 billion oil pipeline, saying the project will draw thousands of out-of-state workers who could accelerate the spread of COVID-19. Health Professionals for a Healthy Climate, at an event with climate justice group MN350, held a socially distanced media event and rally Wednesday morning in front of the governor’s residence in St. Paul. Enbridge received a final permit from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency on Monday, and on Tuesday started building the replacement for its deteriorating and aging Line 3. Speakers at the event said more than 4,000 Enbridge workers living and working in close quarters has the potential to develop into a superspreader event. They said if average Minnesotans and small businesses were being asked to limit their movements and even curtail holiday celebrations and travel, “big oil” could also do its part in stopping the virus’ spread across northern Minnesota. The 340-mile pipeline will cross northern Minnesota, connecting the oil fields in Alberta with Enbridge’s facility in Superior, Wis. “I am asking Gov. Walz to issue a stay on Line 3 construction as a COVID -19 mitigation measure,” said Dr. Vishnu Laalitha Surapaneni, a Twin Cities physician specializing in internal medicine who has been on the medical front lines battling COVID-19 since last spring. “These are perfect conditions for the virus to spread and harm us,” because some of the workforce will be from out of state and many will stay in hotels, she said.

Oakland bans natural gas in new residential and commercial buildings - The Oakland City Council voted unanimously Tuesday to ban natural gas in newly constructed apartment and commercial buildings. The measure requires all developers to design new residential and commercial buildings without natural gas. Developers can apply for waivers for “technology feasibility reasons” to avoid abiding by the new regulation. Existing buildings, additions and accessory dwelling units are not affected by the legislation. “Oakland’s national leadership to build cleaner, safer, and healthier cities for all families continues with this historic transition to all-electric buildings,” said Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf in a statement. Councilman Dan Kalb, the lead author of the legislation, said Oakland can’t meet its climate goals without shifting away from natural gas use. In July, the City Council adopted the 2030 Equitable Climate Action Plan, which calls on the city to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 56% below 2005 levels over the next 10 years. “State energy policies and lower prices of renewables mean that substituting natural gas with electricity is one of the quickest, safest, and least expensive pathways to eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from buildings,” Kalb said. “Additionally, reducing the reliance on gas systems will reduce the risk of fires, simplify building systems and maintenance, and improve indoor air quality.” Nearly a dozen people spoke in support of the restrictions during public comment. One Oakland resident called it a “common sense policy.” The vote comes more than a year after Berkeley became the first city in California to pass a natural gas ban — a move that is being challenged in the courts. Since Berkeley’s measure, nearly 40 cities have joined the effort with similar restrictions, including San Francisco, San Jose and Windsor.

San Jose bans natural gas in new commercial buildings - San Jose became the largest city in the country to ban natural gas in commercial buildings, but its plan to keep businesses running during a power outage was criticized by activists and lawmakers. The City Council voted 8-3 on Dec. 1 to approve the ban but in the wake of a public health crisis and not-so-distant memories of PG&E blackouts, lawmakers granted exceptions for hospitals, manufacturing plants, industrial facilities and energy storage companies, which use natural gas to provide a steady stream of fuel in case the grid goes dark. “The grid will shut down on us,” Mayor Sam Liccardo said. “We are going to have blackouts and when that does happen, it’s policies like this that will be the target of scorn. We need to be really clear that we are providing options for those who critically need them.” A handful of other California cities have banned natural gas, including Berkeley, Burlingame and Menlo Park. Oakland joined that list Tuesday night, banning it in newly-constructed apartment and commercial buildings.

Los Angeles Moves Closer to Forcing Oil & Gas Drillers Out of City (CN) — After a lengthy legal analysis and at least one threat of a lawsuit, Los Angeles will consider a ban on all oil drilling within the city limits. Environmental advocacy groups say the proposal — made during a committee meeting Tuesday — to consider a zoning update that would ban oil drilling is a big victory for people who live near drill sites and signals that LA is prepared to phase out fossil fuel use in the next few decades. “I think we all probably want to be on board with the idea of separating oil and gas production from human beings who are living their lives in neighborhoods,” said LA City Councilman Paul Krekorian, who asked the city attorney’s office to draft an zoning update on oil drilling. The road to that decision has been steeped in health issues for residents. For decades, residents in low-income communities exposed to harmful chemicals have demanded the city update zoning codes to address oil drill sites next to homes, schools, parks and churches. Problem oil operators have been allowed to renew their permits without much oversight by city officials according to environmental groups, leading to severe health issues for generations of Angelenos. LA is crisscrossed with active, abandoned and plugged wells. Among 26 oil and gas fields lie roughly 819 active, 296 idle, 3,181 plugged, and 933 buried wells according to the city. In 2017, the City Council asked for a report on updating those outdated zoning codes. This past summer, the city’s petroleum administrator recommended several avenues to reduce the toxic air that so many breathe, including a possible 600-foot setback or buffer around existing oil sites and a 1,500-foot buffer for any new drill sites. In such a densely populated city, buffers could mean the oil and gas operators would essentially be forced out of neighborhoods.

California- Increased criminal penalties for oil spill-related offenses Members are informed that the International Group (IG) clubs have considered the potential impact on cover for pollution risks of this new legislation. While having in mind the potential for substantial fines to be issued against a polluter, the IG clubs did not believe that it would be appropriate to seek to amend the existing limit of cover to respond to this significant, but nonetheless isolated, new piece of legislation. Any such amendment would in any event be impossible to achieve within the current confines of the global reinsurance markets if sufficient cover were to be required to respond in full to the maximum level of fines that might potentially be levied by Californian courts for accidental pollution. Members are however reminded that there is already cover of US$1 billion per ship per incident for oil pollution damage, which covers response costs and third party claims as well as fines where they fall under Club rules, and all limits of liability under OPA `90 regardless of ship type remain capable of cover well within this capacity. The Californian courts have substantial discretion to consider relevant aggravating and mitigating circumstances relating to a pollution incident when determining the amount of fines. These considerations include, among others, (1) the degree of culpability including the events leading up to the incident (2) prompt and accurate reporting; (3) effective response and clean-up efforts; (4) prompt and fair compensation to damaged parties; (5) remedial efforts towards natural resources; and finally, (6) the spilling party’s financial ability to pay.As to the latter, the legal advice received by the IG is that a court cannot impose a punishment, even if authorized by statute, that is so excessive as to be beyond the defendant’s ability to pay. The IG is also continuing to take active steps in conjunction with coalition partners to explore the possibility of addressing industry’s concerns arising from this new law, although it remains clear that any such steps will not affect the entry into force date of the new law in California.

When Can Pipelines Take Private Land? Jordan Cove LNG Project a Test for Eminent Domain - In 2005, Deb Evans and her husband Ron Schaaf bought a piece of property in Klamath County, Oregon, where they hoped to build a house and selectively harvest timber on the land. They saw it as a long-term investment. About a month after they closed on the property, they went to walk through portions of it where they considered building a home, but they noticed orange survey tape hanging from the trees. “We had no idea who had put it there or why,” Evans said. After calling around, they soon found out that a company wanted to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal in Coos Bay on the Oregon coast, and run a natural gas pipeline to California — and Evans’ land was in the way. If the company’s plans worked out, the pipeline would travel right through their property. A decade and a half — and two White House administrations — later, there’s still no pipeline. But the project still looms over Evans and Schaaf, limping along in a zombie-like fashion. The Jordan Cove LNG project, now overseen by Canadian company Pembina, just won’t seem to die — even after it had been rejected by federal regulators twice and had key environmental permits denied. Now, in a final attempt to stop the pipeline that would supply the LNG terminal, local residents are suing to protect their property. Evans and a group of about two dozen landowners, represented by the Niskanen Center, a nonpartisan think tank based in Washington, D.C., are appealing the Trump administration’s approval of the pipeline (reversing an Obama-era rejection) in a case that will be heard by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals in 2021. The outcome could have far-reaching ramifications for how pipelines get built in the U.S., and how pipeline companies can use eminent domain to take private land.

Oneok seeks to expand capacity of natural gas liquids pipeline - Oneok seeks to expand the capacity of a natural gas liquids pipeline that connects to its Bear Creek gas processing plant near Halliday in Dunn County. The company wants to add two pump stations to boost horsepower along the Bear Creek NGL Pipeline, which currently carries up to 15,000 barrels per day from the plant to another pipeline in McKenzie County. The proposed stations would allow the line to transport up to 80,000 barrels per day. The company seeks a permit from the North Dakota Public Service Commission, as the two pump stations would fall outside the pipeline’s existing corridor. One of the new stations would be located on a 5-acre parcel of land leased by Oneok 8 miles southeast of Watford City. The other would be built on 7 acres of leased land 18 miles northwest of Killdeer, according to the application Oneok filed with the PSC earlier this year. The pipeline spans 38 miles and was built in 2016. Its maximum operating pressure would remain the same under the expansion, the company said in its application. Natural gas liquids, which are shipped through the pipeline, are isolated from raw natural gas at processing plants. They contain components of the gas such as ethane, butane and propane, which exist in liquid form under certain pressures and temperatures. The liquids would ultimately be shipped via Oneok’s Bakken and Elk Creek pipelines, which run from eastern Montana to Kansas, company spokesman Brad Borror said. The pipeline expansion is separate from a planned expansion of the Bear Creek processing plant, which was put on hold earlier this year due to changing market conditions and customer needs, he said.  Many oil and gas projects have been halted or canceled in 2020 after the price of oil collapsed this spring in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.

Oil field spill reported in Bowman County - An oil field spill occurred at a pipeline in Bowman County on Tuesday, according to the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality.About 200 barrels or 8,400 gallons of "source water" leaked from the line, which is owned by Denbury Offshore. Some of the fluid spilled into pastureland at a site 8 miles southwest of Marmarth.Source water is fluid that is saltier than fresh water but not nearly as saturated with salt as what's commonly known as "brine" or "produced water" in the oil fields. The water is pumped up to the earth's surface from a shallow rock formation and then injected back down into a deeper formation to try to push more crude into old oil wells, said Karl Rockeman, director of the state Division of Water Quality.Denbury is involved in such enhanced oil recovery efforts in southwestern North Dakota. Environmental Quality said it is inspecting the site and will monitor cleanup.

Not Waiting for Public Comment, Trump Administration Schedules Lease Sale for Arctic Wildlife Refuge -Even in the final weeks of his administration, President Donald Trump is trying to make good on his early promise to bring oil development to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, not bothering to wait for the public comments that are customary before such a move.  The Bureau of Land Management announced on Thursday that the administration plans to hold an oil leasing sale for the refuge on Jan. 6. This is far sooner than environmental organizations expected, and the announcement met with immediate criticism from groups that have been fighting to keep drilling out of what is known as the "crown jewel" of the nation's wildlife refuge system.  Just over two weeks ago, the Bureau of Land Management issued a "call for nominations," asking oil companies to let them know which tracts of the refuge they might want to drill on. That process typically involves a 30-day public comment period, and is usually followed by a period of analysis—often several weeks—in which the bureau decides what tracts to offer up. Based on that timeline, it seemed that the earliest a lease sale could happen would be a few days before President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in on Jan. 20.  Though Biden has said that protecting the refuge from drilling is a priority, once the leases are sold, the process of getting them back is complicated. That may be one reason the administration is rushing to get them sold before Trump's term ends. "This is a shameful attempt by Donald Trump to give one last handout to the fossil fuel industry on his way out the door, at the expense of our public lands and our climate," said Michael Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club.

Trump rushes to lock down oil drilling in Alaska’s Arctic Reserve before Biden takes office - The Trump administration announced Thursday that it will auction off drilling rights in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in just over a month, setting up a final showdown with opponents before President-elect Joe Biden takes office. The sale, which is now set for Jan. 6, could cap a bitter, decades-long battle over whether to drill in the coastal plain, a 19-million-acre expanse that's home to Native tribes as well as caribou, polar bears and other wildlife. The Trump administration has made it a priority to open the land to development. "Congress directed us to hold lease sales in the ANWR Coastal Plain, and we have taken a significant step in announcing the first sale in advance of the December 2021 deadline set by law," said a statement Thursday from Chad Padgett, the Alaska state director for the Bureau of Land Management. A Republican-led Congress approved legislation that opened up the coastal plain to oil development in 2017. It required two lease sales within seven years, including the first no later than the end of 2021. While it has been reported that the Alaska Oil and Gas Association took Thursday's announcement as good news, the Trump administration's plan for the sale may draw legal challenges from drilling opponents, who could target the aggressive timeline in court. Already, conservation and tribal groups, as well as a coalition of 15 states, have filed lawsuits challenging the Trump administration's environmental reviews. The Trump administration has moved forward with other oil and gas projects in the state, including approving development plans within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska that Interior Secretary David Bernhardt said would make "a significant contribution" to keeping oil flowing through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline for years to come. Weighing the economics Energy industry experts are now looking at the economics of drilling for oil in Alaska's Arctic Wildlife Refuge. The problem: It would cost an estimated average of $100 a barrel to extract oil from that part of Alaska, says Moody's Analytics energy economist Chris Lafakis, and the current price of crude is under $50. That suggests that even if Trump does manage to find bidders for the leases — and that Biden doesn't block the permits winning bidders would need to begin drilling — it could take years before the oil begins to flow, if it ever does. "And it is unlikely to reverse the long-term decline in Alaska's oil production, which has been hampered by competition from cheaper to produce oil from Texas and North Dakota since the development of hydraulic fracking technology in the early 2000s." "A sale of new leases is more a public relations stunt than anything else,"  It's not clear who will bid on the leases, but it's unlikely they will pay much — certainly not enough to make any dent in the federal government's finances. The two largest drillers in other areas of Alaska have been Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, each of which declined to comment for this article on whether they would bid on ANWR leases. The American Petroleum Institute, which represents the industry's interests in Washington, referred an interview request to the companies.

BofA Says It Won’t Finance Arctic Oil and Gas Exploration - Bank of America Corp. said that it won’t provide project financing for oil and gas exploration in the Arctic after facing opposition from environmentalists. “There’s been misunderstanding around our position, but we have not historically participated in project finance for oil and gas exploration in the Arctic,” Larry Di Rita, the bank’s head of public policy and strategy in Washington, said Monday in an interview. “But given that misinterpretation, we’ve determined that it’s time to codify our existing practice into policy.” Environmental campaigners have criticized the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender for its stance. Earlier this month, the Sierra Clubsingled out Bank of America as “the only major U.S. bank not to rule out financing for the destruction of the Arctic refuge” after its five biggest competitors updated their policies this year. The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump isadvancing plans to auction drilling rights in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Bank of America has said it aims to position itself as a leader in environmental, social and governance matters in the financial industry through underwriting green bonds, reducing carbon emissions and supporting global climate initiatives. It has a goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Ben Cushing, a senior campaign representative for the Sierra Club, said the banks’ policies call into question future projects in the Arctic. “Now that every major American bank has stated unequivocally that they will not finance this destructive activity, it should be clearer than ever that any oil company considering participating in Trump’s ill-advised lease sale should stay away,” he said in a statement.

About 750 gallons of fuel and water recovered from spill in Selawik, state says -About 750 gallons of diesel and water have been recovered from a spill that Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation officials said occurred during a fuel tank transfer. State conservation officials said the Nov. 25 spill in the village of Selawik happened after workers started transferring fuel from a city fuel tank to a water treatment plant tank. The reasons for the spill and the amount spilled are still under investigation, officials said. “We know that 35,000 gallons is still in the tank and is not threatening to release at this time,” said Sarah Moore, a state conservation agency spokesperson. “So we have a ballpark estimate, but are still working on some more concrete numbers about the volume spilled.” The incident was reported to state conservation officials at about 1:30 a.m. last Thursday. The spill happened about 600 feet from the Selawik River, a source of water for the village. The fuel tank holds just under 46,000 gallons of diesel while the water plant tank holds about 4,000 gallon, Alaska’s Energy Desk reported. U.S. Coast Guard officials arrived in the village on Tuesday to provide equipment and investigate the cleanup. “In addition to investigating the causal factors of the incident, we are on site to assess any potential environmental impacts,”

Coast Guard still monitoring oil cleanup - Pollution teams are in the final stages of oil recovery and cleanup operations around three abandoned tugboats in Krause Lagoon, according to a news release from the U.S. Coast Guard.  “We’ve made significant progress in the last week and are now monitoring the final stage of clean-up operations,” said Chief Warrant Officer Daniell Lashbrook, Marine Safety Response specialist and federal on-scene coordinator representative. “The Coast Guard’s main priority is to protect and return the environment and affected water to their pristine state. After completing a more in depth assessment of the situation, we extended our plan for the Cape Lookout to also remove any oil and hazardous materials from inside the two other abandoned tugboats, the Cape May and Cape Flattery, which also threatened to contaminate the environment.” Since oil recovery operations began Nov. 17, the National Response Corp. of St. Croix — as the oil spill removal organization hired for the project — deployed specialized dive teams to complete assessments, according to the news release. Cleanup crews used vacuum trucks, ISO tanks, storage tote containers and multiple skimmers to recover approximately 15,000 gallons of oily water from inside the Cape Lookout, with approximately 90% of the recovered material being pure product. Cleanup crews also recovered approximately 8,000 gallons of oil product from inside the Cape May as well as 2,000 gallons of oil product from inside the Cape Flattery. As the operation ramps down, crews from National Response Corp. and subcontractor Resolve Marine will continue to monitor and recover any residual oil from the site and maintain containment booms placed around the vessels. The recovered material is to be disposed of in accordance with local and federal environmental requirements. To conduct oil recovery operations, the Coast Guard tapped into the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund. So far, clean-up operations are estimated to run $475,000. An investigation to identify a responsible party and the circumstances surrounding the incident is ongoing, according to the news release. At this time, there are no reports of affected marine or wildlife. 

 Seadrill Partners Files Chapter 11 - Seadrill Partners LLC announced Tuesday that it has filed voluntary petitions under chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code to preserve value and to continue the operation and marketing of its assets. The company revealed that it had been in negotiations with an ad hoc group of lenders under the Seadrill Partners’ Term Loan B credit facility, regarding a consensual reorganization of the company’s balance sheet. The voluntary petitions were said to be filed in consultation with, and with the support of, the ad hoc group. Seadrill Partners noted that it intends to use the bankruptcy process to ensure that all customer, vendor and employee obligations are met without interruption and to complete a consensual restructuring of its debt. Seadrill Partners is a limited liability company formed by Seadrill to own and operate offshore drilling units. The company’s fleet consists of drillships, semi-submersible rigs and tender rigs operating in benign and harsh environments, according to its website. The business reported total operating revenues for of $314 million in the first half of 2020, which marked a decrease from the previous six month period (2H19: $367.8 million). The decrease was said to be primarily due to idle time on the West Capricorn and T-15, completion of the West Aquarius contract, an early termination fee for the West Vencedor during 2H19 not being repeated and fewer days in operation for the West Polaris. As a result of the deteriorating market due to Covid-19 and oil price declines, Seadrill Partners said it recognized a non-cash impairment of $922.9 million in respect of certain idle drilling units. The company registered an operating loss of $923.6 million during 1H 2020 (2H19: income of $10.7 million), which was said to be primarily due to the non-cash impairment recognized in the period.

Exxon Announces Record Write-Down Amid Energy Market Tumble --After insisting for months that its oil and gas investments remain as valuable as ever, Exxon Mobil Corp. plans to write down $17 billion to $20 billion in natural gas assets in the largest such announcement the company has ever made.The assets are located in the U.S., Canada and Argentina, according to anannouncement released Monday afternoon. Many of those assets in the U.S. were acquired a decade ago when Exxon struck a poorly timed $41 billion deal to expand its natural gas holdings.Many oil companies announced write-downs this year after oil and gas prices dropped sharply because of the pandemic. That's because companies make investments based on predicted commodity prices, and price drops can make a planned project suddenly unprofitable. Taking such projects off the books is called an impairment, or a write-down.For many companies that's a routine accounting practice after a price drop. But Exxon has long been an outlier, maintaining its plans are unchanged despite the adjustments made by its rivals. The company argues it makes investments based on long-term strategies that are not affected by short-term prices.And while some companies are starting to factor in long-term reductions in oil demanddue to climate action, Exxon maintains that demand for petroleum will remain robust even as climate concerns mount.Even now, as it announces its largest-ever impairments, Exxon is not attributing the change to any underlying shift in price forecasts. Instead, it said it is dropping "less strategic assets" from its plans. Exxon has been criticized over the years for opting not to write down assets, with its natural gas assets recently singled out for particular scrutiny.

ENERGY TRANSITIONS: Oil major to become 'carbon management company' -- Friday, December 4, 2020 -- Occidental Petroleum Corp., which has set the most aggressive climate goal among major U.S. oil producers, eventually sees its nascent carbon capture operation becoming its primary business line, CEO Vicki Hollub said this week.

Is Nord Stream 2 Bypassing US Sanctions?-- Nord Stream 2 has picked a ship to finish laying sections of its pipeline under the Baltic Sea, a German agency overseeing the work said, indicating the Russian company has found a way to get around U.S. sanctions that have halted the project. Germany’s Maritime and Hydrographic Agency said on Tuesday “it assumes” the company building the natural gas pipeline will use the Akademik Cherskiy. If confirmed, it would end the mystery about how the Russia’s gas export company Gazprom PJSC will finish work after Switzerland’s AllSeas Group SA pulled out of the project last year. The 9.5 billion-euro ($11.2 billion) will bring Russian gas directly into Germany, fanning tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump, who says Europe already is getting too much of its energy supply from its eastern neighbor. Congress in Washington is poised to impose a new round of penalties on companies working for Nord Stream 2, tightening measures imposed a year ago. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak last year mentioned the 150-meter-long Akademik Cherskiy as an option for finishing up the gas link, but Gazprom has been silent about which ship it would use. Neither Gazprom nor Nord Stream 2 commented on the remarks from Germany. On Tuesday, Nord Stream 2 said it would name a vessel at a later date and that work could resume on Dec. 5. Russia is “doing its best” to complete the project, Elena Burmistrova, chief executive officer at Gazprom’s export unit, said last month. About 200,000 sections of pipeline have been produced for Nord Stream 2, and there are few ships around the world capable of doing the job of laying them down in the seabed. Most of them are owned by western companies, not willing to face U.S. sanctions. Finding an appropriate vessel and preparing it for the job has been considered a key issue for Nord Stream 2 completion and is among the reasons why the project has been halted for one year. The 1,230-kilometer (764-mile) pipeline was weeks away from completion when work stopped in December 2019. All except 160 kilometers of the pipe have been put in place. The bulk of the remaining section will be in the Danish waters, yet the pipelaying will restart in German territory Dec. 5, Nord Stream 2 said during the weekend. Once that’s done, it will have to be connected to the infrastructure onshore in Germany. The Akademik Cherskiy is currently located offshore Russia’s Baltic port of Kaliningrad, according to ship-tracking data in the Bloomberg Terminal. The vessel has a dynamic positioning system, and can lay down pipelines without anchors. Those systems are preferred by regulators since they reduce the risk of encountering unexploded bombs at the bottom of the Baltic Sea. The ship was built in China and was recently sold by Gazprom to Samara Thermal Power Foundation, according to the Russian ship registry. ICIS estimates the Cherskiy can set down pipe at about a third of the speed as the vessel that Allseas was using. Allseas had a fleet of six vessels including three pipelayers working for Nord Stream 2 -- Solitaire, Pioneering Spirit and Audacia. While the first two ships are dynamically positioned, Audacia was being converted into an anchored vessel for its work in German waters.

Russias Nornickel says it will spend $600 million collecting Soviet-era Arctic waste (Reuters) - Russian mining giant Norilsk Nickel, hit by a fuel spill at an Arctic power station in May, will spend $600 million by 2030 collecting Soviet-era waste around its Arctic sites, it said on Tuesday. The spill, which Greenpeace has compared to the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill off Alaska, released 21,000 tonnes of diesel from a rusty-looking fuel tank into rivers and soil near the city of Norilsk in Siberia. “Lessons have been learned from the recent environmental incident,” Nornickel said in a statement. It cleaned up the area after the spill and set aside $2 billion for environmental damage claim by the country’s watchdog which it currently disputes in court. “A very important strategic focus will be put on the elimination of legacy pollution, including dismantling of abandoned buildings and structures, metal waste management and recycling as well as sanitary cleaning of the territory.” The legacy waste in the industrial city of Norilsk, built 300 km inside the Arctic Circle, is massive partly due to its history and lack of roads to other parts of the country. Prisoners from Stalin’s labour camps built the first smelter there 85 years ago. Nornickel’s $600 million programme will target 467 abandoned buildings and structures there in 2021-2030. More than 600,000 tonnes of scrap metal are expected to be collected. The waste collection will be part of Nornickel’s wider environment investment plans, which target a reduction in sulphur dioxide emissions in the area by 2025. Its environmental projects and output growth strategy will require more than $27 billion in total within the next 10 years, including $5.5 billion needed for the environment projects. It plans to upgrade 60% of its energy infrastructure by 2030.

Heritage Petroleum continues containment and cleanup of oil spill - Heritage Petroleum continues containment and cleanup activities in the aftermath of the oil spill in Woodland. The Environmental Management Authority confirms this. The EMA says Heritage continues to provide daily updates on the progress of their efforts The authority says until the company completes its incident management, it will continue to monitor the contingency plan deployed by Heritage Petroleum. The authority says it will also continue to coordinate with all relevant agencies and stakeholders involved. In a release, the EMA says in its coordinating role there is active liaison with other relevant government agencies on the steps taken to address the spill. The EMA says it is conducting collaborative site inspections. The spill occurred at the Godineau River in south Oropouche almost 2 weeks ago.

Heritage- 90 percent of oil spill clean-up complete -The Heritage Petroleum Company Limited says it has completed 90 percent of cleanup activities following the oil spill at the New Cut Channel, South Oropouche River, Woodland. This was disclosed by Heritage HSSE Manager and IMT Incident Commander Shyam Dyal during a live video tour of the Godineau River on Monday morning. He said: "The remaining 10 percent, we are leaving that for nature to take its course because there are some areas where it might be dangerous to get inside the mangrove and those are the areas that you do not want to destroy." The spill occurred on November 18 and Dyal assured that the necessary steps were taken to quickly address the problems. This includes the utilisation of containment booms to reduce pollution on the river bed and absorbent booms to pick up rainbow sheens and small globules of oil. He stated: "When we look at the river ecosystem what we are seeing is no free oil on the surface of the river. We are seeing wildlife, we are seeing healthy mangroves throughout. You have some barks of the mangrove that may have some oil stain and the reason for that is that we have taken a policy decision not to use any chemicals." The Heritage HSSE manager said this was in keeping with international best practise as it relates to mangroves and river ecosystems. "No soil was removed, no barks, no cutting of mangroves took place," he said. Dyal did note, however, that contaminated leaves were disposed of and reminded that fisherfolk in the area assisted with cleanup activities He said: "We had a maximum of 12 vessels on some days that were employed with the fishermen and they worked with us. We have worked with the fishermen in terms of providing them with the necessary personal protective equipment, coveralls, life jackets and we are also looking to develop further corporate social responsibility programmes with the fisherfolk in this area. We are also working with the crab catchers and the oyster vendors and dealing with any issues that they may have emanating from this oil spill as well." Meanwhile, Heritage Petroleum's Wildlife Rescue and Rehabilitation Group alongside the wildlife section of the Ministry of Agriculture's Forestry Division continues to search for and assess animals.

Oil spill- Supreme Court dismisses Shell’s application to review appeal against N17bn judgment - The Supreme Court has dismissed an application by Shell Petroleum Development Company, asking it to review its judgment of Jan. 11, 2019 that ordered Shell to pay N17 billion to Ogoni communities in Rivers.The communities were affected by an oil spill caused by the oil company in 1970.x A five-member panel of justices dismissed the application on the grounds that it had no merit since the court had taken a decision on the appeal and the court could not reverse itself.The judgment prepared by Justice Centus Nweze and read by Justice Chukwudumebi Oseji on Friday in Abuja, held that the the application had no merit.The Supreme Court had issued the N17 billion order in favour of Ejama-Ebubu in Tai Eleme Local Government Area of Rivers.x Counsel to the communities, Mr Lucius Nwosu told newsmen that the judgment sum, with interest accrued over the past 31 years was about N182 billion.Nwosu had in September, at the hearing of the application, prayed the apex court to not only dismiss the application, but to also punish all the senior lawyers in Shell’s legal team for the filing the judgment review application.Nwosu said that the application was an attempt to ridicule the integrity and finality of the decisions of the apex court.x He further argued that the fresh appeal by Shell, which was filed seven months after the initial appeal was dismissed, was a calculated attempt to move the Supreme Court to sit on appeal over its final judgement.Nwosu also told the apex court that the same Shell that was reluctant to pay damages to Nigerian victims of its oil spillage had in similar situations paid over 206 million dollars to victims in Mexico.He said the previous litigation lasted over 30 years before the N17billion damages was awarded against Shell by the Court of Appeal.x One of the parties in the suit, a community leader, King George Osaro told newsmen that people of his community were overwhelmed with joy that the matter would finally be put to rest.“We are really overwhelmed by the decision of the Supreme Court today because this will bring this whole Shell drama to an end.“We feel vindicated from all the suffering the company has put us through. We advice Shell to retrace it’s steps and do what is right.”

Nigerian SC asks Shell to pay $467m for oil spill in 1970 - Nigeria’s Supreme Court (SC) has declined an application from Royal Dutch Shell which aimed to set aside a previous ruling that ordered the company to pay $467 million for damages caused by an oil spill almost five decades ago. The judges upheld the previous decision, which ruled that the oil conglomerate must pay damages for an oil spillage in Ejama-Ebubu in Rivers State. According to Bloomberg and local media reports, the five-member panel said that Shell’s request to review the case lacked merit. The case centres around an oil spill that occurred in 1970 from Shell’s oil production activities in the Niger delta. The case was brought to court in 2001 by the Ejama-Ebubu community, which has accused the company of making their water sources unfit for human consumption. In 2010, a Nigerian court ruled that the company was liable for an oil spill in the community, but Shell still disputes its responsibility and says that it has cleaned the area. “It is regrettable that the legal process in this case has been focused for so long on procedural issues and not the merits of the case,” Shell said in a statement responding to the latest ruling on Friday. Still disputing the Ejama-Ebubu claim, the company insists that “any attempt to enforce payment should not be permitted” due to other ongoing court proceedings. “We have always maintained that we are ready to defend this case based on the available facts,” Shell said, as cited by Bloomberg. Shell and its subsidiaries have also fought several lawsuits over oil spills in the Niger Delta, with legal tussles ongoing in the Hague and in the British courts, which previously sided with the oil giant. Last year, a UK court blocked the enforcement of damages against the major. Shell was previously forced to pay for massive oil spills in Nigeria that occurred in 2008 and 2009, considered to be the biggest in decades of oil exploration in the country. The Bodo fishing community, whose territory was polluted as the result of the incident, sued the company, which agreed to pay $83 million in compensation in 2015.

 Oil Hungry Asia Lures 20 US Crude Carrying Tankers- A fleet of around 20 tankers laden with U.S. crude oil is expected to leave for Asia this month as the region continues to outpace the rest of the world in its recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. The vessels have been booked, some of them provisionally, to load crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast this month for delivery to the Far East, according to shipping fixtures and shipbrokers. Most are supertankers that can each carry about 2 million barrels of oil. Demand has rebounded in some parts of Asia, with Chinese crude processing matching a record in October. The nation’s independent refiners, meanwhile, have ramped up purchases after receiving new import quotas for 2021. Indian demand is also climbing as processors boost run rates. Of the roughly 20 ships identified, many have been fully fixed but it’s still possible that some may not make the trip. That said, there is still time to book more ships to load this month, which could raise the tanker count to match the October high of 26. Unipec, the trading arm of China’s biggest oil refiner Sinopec Group, Vitol Group and Litasco SA are among those that have chartered vessels. If all of the booked vessels make the December trip to Asia, the total volume will easily exceed that in November, when shipments to the region slumped 35% from October, according to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Traders said the arbitrage economics for U.S. crudes such as Mars and West Texas Intermediate were attractive when compared with some sour grades from the Middle East and also sweet varieties in Asia-Pacific. American benchmark West Texas Intermediate’s discount to global marker Brent was $2.69 a barrel on Tuesday, compared with $1.74 at the end of October. The wider spread is also adding to the attractiveness of U.S. crude. China’s Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co. chose to purchase U.S. crude last week over grades from the Middle East and Russia as offers for American shipments were more competitive. Earlier, a flurry of Asian buy tenders from the company and Indian refiners lifted the the price of benchmark Oman crude in an already bullish spot market. Cuts to term supplies from producers such as Iraq and the possibility of an extension in OPEC+ output curbs are also prompting buyers to seek alternative sources of crude from the U.S., the Mediterranean Sea as well as the North Sea, according to traders.

Crude Oil Tanker Crew Kidnapped -  Reporting indicates that the MV Agisilaos crude oil tanker has been boarded by an unknown number of people while underway in the Gulf of Guinea, resulting in the kidnap of four crew. That’s according to maritime security company Dryad Global, which noted that the vessel is now reported safe and that local authorities had been notified. The incident occurred in Ghanaian waters, five nautical miles (nm) from the Western edge of the Gulf of Guinea HRA and 22nm west of Togo TTW, Dryad Global outlined. According to AIS data, the vessel changed direction to the starboard at the time of the incident and reduced its speed, conducting evasive maneuvers to avoid boarding. Dryad Global highlighted that this was the 24th confirmed kidnapping incident in the waters of the Gulf of Guinea within 2020, with 122 crew kidnapped from vessels. Three crew members aboard a bunkering vessel were kidnapped on November 17, 22nm north-east of the MV Agisilaos incident. “While the design of this vessel does not signal any overarching vulnerabilities, this incident highlights the desperation of perpetrators in the region,” Dryad Global said in a statement posted on its website. “Counter-piracy operations and logistical strains mean larger vessels may be targeted should attacks targeting smaller vessels with vulnerable characteristics be unsuccessful,” the company added in the statement. “Further attacks on vessels underway are highly likely, and vessels are advised to exercise heightened caution within and on approach to the Gulf of Guinea HRA,” Dryad Global continued. The MV Agisilaos ship was built back in 2006 and is sailing under the flag of the Marshall Islands, ship tracking and maritime intelligence company MarineTraffic highlights on its website. According to MarineTraffic, the vessel has an overall length of 604 feet and a width of 90 feet.

Low prices batter oil industry (and later the rest of us) -It is a sign of the times that the largest oil company in the world, Saudi Aramco, the state oil company of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, must borrow money to pay its shareholder dividend. I have written about the twice-delayed and often troubled initial public offering of the company previously (here and here).Now it seems that the cash which the company is generating from operations is far less than the dividend payout—which leaves nothing for new drilling to replace reserves and other capital expenditures needed to keep the company going. Hence, the need to borrow.All of this is due, in part, to low oil prices. And, the Saudis are not the only ones suffering, of course. U.S. producers, mostly those focused on high-cost shale deposits, or merge with other stronger companies. Another part of the equation is heavy debt. Naive investors kept handing over fresh capital, oblivious to the fact that the shale oil and gas industry as a whole has been free cash flow negative for years. That's okay for a few years, but as a long-run strategy it means a company is simply consuming the capital of its investors.So, what does this mean for the economy and society as a whole? Normally, such developments, while bad for the industry, would be interpreted as a boon for the rest of society. After all, cheap energy means cheap fuel for consumers and business owners and more money to spend on other things. So, how could the trouble in the oil industry make trouble for the rest of us?   The world still depends on oil for about one-third of its energy needs. Oil production (defined as crude oil including lease condensate) has been in decline since well before the pandemic, namely, since November 2018. It turns out that oil prices this low cannot make enough of the oil left to drill in the world profitable.   Companies are not going to make significant new investments in raising production until they can see sustained prices that are much higher. In the meantime, production will tick down as depletion continues to overcome new well production.Where will it end? Petroleum geologist and consultant Art Berman believes that U.S. oil production will be 5 million barrels below government estimates by July 2021 as U.S. shale production declines rapidly without renewed investment. He has logic on his side. Right now less than a third of the rigs needed to maintain U.S. production are deployed. Even if that number climbs from here, it is already baked in the cake that U.S. production will fall precipitously in the coming year.This matters because the United States has contributed to 73 percent of all global growth in oil supplies since 2008. In 2018 it contributed 98 percent. Production declines in the United States matter as the rest of oil-producing world in aggregate is just treading water.

OPEC+ considers delay to its output hike, but faces a U.S. shale industry 'itching to drill again' — Oil-producing group OPEC, and its allies, will likely delay an output hike at its meeting this week as it weighs positive vaccine news against new coronavirus lockdowns and resurgent shale drilling in the U.S.  The coalition known as OPEC+, which comprises some of the world's largest crude producers, will begin a two-day meeting Monday to discuss the next phase of its production policy.   It agreed to the largest single output cut in history back in April, but that reduction of 9.7 million barrels per day was subsequently scaled back to 7.7 million in August. Taking oil off the market, with OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia often bearing the brunt, usually boosts crude prices and helps their commodity-focused economies.  A planned 2 million bpd January production ramp-up looks set to be delayed, according to market consensus, with analysts differing on whether that would be for three months or six months.Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, believes the meetings on Monday and Tuesday won't spring any surprises, saying an extension of the production cut is largely priced in. "We now think that the oil price (Brent) will stand at $60 per barrel by end-2021," she said in a research note Friday, revising forecasts due to the encouraging vaccine trial data from pharma giants that could help reopen economies after the coronavirus crisis. Many market watchers see both oil benchmarks at, or around, $50 a barrel over the next year as demand slowly builds after the shock seen in March and April. The price of U.S. oil plunged into negative territory during the first wave of the pandemic as Saudi Arabia and Russia stuttered over an output deal. But Brent crude futures now stand at $48.18 a barrel, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures at $45.52. Ron Smith, an oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets, believes there are reasons to be bullish on prices, especially on a six-month view. In a research note emailed to CNBC last week, he said that oil could go to the mid-$50s by the end of 2021. VIDEO02:00 Croft: The Trump administration is going to make it more difficult for Biden to roll back sanctions against Iran as part of a nuclear deal Return of shale But both Smith and Bain point out that OPEC+ will be keeping a keen eye on U.S. shale producers, and would be loath to allow them to significantly re-ramp production without increases of its own. The U.S. industry is now a key swing supplier in global markets, and has been a thorn in the side of OPEC for the last decade — gradually taking on more market share at OPEC's expense. The recent rally in oil prices could supercharge a return in American rig counts — which have just seen their 10th weekly increase in 11 weeks.

There's a lot of dissatisfaction and fatigue within OPEC+, S&P Global Platts says -It is "striking" that Iraq has made strong negative comments about OPEC+ production quotas ahead of the alliance's meeting this week, one oil watcher said.The group is expected to consider delaying its output increase, scheduled for January 2021, at its two-day meeting starting Monday. "A couple of weeks ago, we were all thinking this was going to be a pretty routine meeting, it seemed like all the ducks were lined up in a row for a rollover of these … cuts," said Herman Wang, S&P Global Platts' Middle East and OPEC managing editor. "But now, we're seeing some cracks in the foundation," he said."We know that Iraq has long struggled with its quota, but them saying that they are tired of the one-size-fits-all approach, that's quite striking, for them to say something that direct about OPEC's management," he told CNBC's"Capital Connection" on Monday.Wang said it's not unusual for there to be some "performance theater" ahead of such meetings, but that the "the stridence of some of these calls" was surprising. "A lot of dissatisfaction, a lot of fatigue among a lot of members with having put in these cuts for so long because of Covid," he said. "And with these vaccines perhaps around the corner, some of these countries aren't willing to maybe play ball for much longer." He also noted reports about the United Arab Emirates, a "long-standing ally" of OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia, potentially quitting the group.Asked if this was a real threat or just a negotiating tool, Wang said it's a bit of both. "There's no imminent split, I don't think, just based on what I'm hearing," he said.In a statement to Reuters, the UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said the country is a "reliable" member of the alliance.Still, there are difficult questions being asked about the future of OPEC. "That's what's partly making these talks just so contentious. It's not just about the next three months, it's really about the rest of the decade," Wang said. The UAE has ambitious production targets and doesn't want to be limited by OPEC+ output cuts, he said, adding that the question now is whether other members want to keep the alliance going.

OPEC+ Fails To Agree On Output Hike Ahead Of Big Meeting With UAE, Kazakhstan Opposed - One day before a crucial OPEC meeting which could determine if oil trades above $50 or back under $40 in the coming weeks, a panel of OPEC+ ministers failed to reach an agreement on whether to delay January’s oil-output increase, leaving the matter unresolved before tomorrow's meeting. According to Bloomberg - which cited an anonymous delegate - while most participants including Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in the informal online discussion on Sunday evening supported maintaining the production curbs at current levels into the first quarter, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan were opposed. The opposition comes following public complaints from Iraq and Nigeria, which have also indicated they would like to see an end to the production cuts. As a result, due to the two minor nations' opposition, unless the agreement is revised this week OPEC+ will restart about 1.9 million barrels a day of halted output, potentially pushing the global market back into surplus and sending crude price tumbling after a cautious recovery pushed Brent back to $48/barrel, the highest since March. "Saudi Arabia will have to lean hard to get an agreement,” said Mohammad Darwazah, an analyst at research firm Medley Global Advisors LLC. “There have been particularly acute rumblings of dissatisfaction with the status quo from Abu Dhabi." Then again, considering that the UAE is one of OPEC's minor producers, pumping just 2.4MM b/d in October, or about 10% of OPEC's total... ... it's clear that if OPEC indeed wants to maintain the output cuts - which both Russia and Saudi Arabia are in favor of - then that's what will happen, and today's report is just an attempt to add fake drama to an outcome that is already predetermined. As a reminder Saudi Arabia and Russia summoned a small group of OPEC+ countries for last-minute talks this weekend, in an apparent effort to forge a consensus before making a final decision at a conference scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, Bloomberg reports.

 Oil prices fall as OPEC+ members debate 2021 output policy --Oil prices tumbled on Monday on uncertainty about whether OPEC+ would agree to extend large output cuts at talks this week, but vaccine hopes still kept benchmark crudes on track to rise more than a fifth in November. Brent crude for January delivery, a contract that expires on Monday, dropped 45 cents, or 0.93%, to $47.73 a barrel. The more actively traded February Brent contract was down 79 cents at $47.46. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for January fell 26 cents, or 0.57%, to $45.28 a barrel. "Last week's optimism is taking a hit this morning and longs are edging towards the exit ahead of the OPEC+ talks," said oil broker PVM's Tamas Varga, after OPEC+ failed to agree on policy in informal talks ahead of Monday and Tuesday's formal meetings. "Some member countries will be hard to convince about further output discipline and in case of an unexpected fallout not only the price repercussions will hurt producers, but the general existence of the OPEC alliance will be questioned." Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and others, a group known as OPEC+, will consider extending existing cuts for three to four months or increasing output gradually from January, OPEC+ sources said. OPEC+ had been due to ease its existing production cuts by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from January. Hussein Sayed, analyst at FXTM, said fuel demand had recovered in Asia but not in Europe and the Americas, presenting OPEC+ with a "challenging choice on whether to delay or bring back more oil to the market." Goldman Sachs said the surge in COVID-19 cases in the winter would not prevent the oil market rebalancing as a result of vaccine progress, saying it saw Brent rising to $65 in 2021. A Reuters poll of 40 economists and analysts forecast Brent would average $49.35 a barrel next year. Brent and WTI are still set to rise more than 20% in November, the strongest monthly gains since May, boosted by hopes that three promising vaccines could support economic recovery and lift fuel demand. Supporting the demand outlook, China expanded factory activity at its fastest in more than three years in November.

OPEC warns of ‘immense challenges’ as talks on oil production cuts continue  OPEC warned on Monday that the "immense challenges" caused by the Covid-19 pandemic were likely to persist into 2021, as the group of oil producers continues high-stakes negotiations over an extension to its production cut agreement. "The shock to the oil industry is massive and its severe impacts will likely reverberate in the years to come," Abdelmadjid Attar, OPEC president and Algeria's energy minister, told the group on Monday. "The pandemic continues to rage with cases soaring in many regions around the world. It continues to affect adversely the global economy and, consequently, the world energy markets, in an unprecedented manner." Reuters, citing Algeria's state news agency APS, reported that OPEC members had reached a consensus to extend the production curbs for three months, but further talks were needed to convince members of the OPEC+ alliance at their meeting on Tuesday to back the policy. Oil prices, which had been on track to increase by over 20% this month, fell on Monday. International benchmark Brent crude trading around $47.56, down around 1.3%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $45.02, around 1.1% lower. OPEC cut an unprecedented 9.8 million barrels per day in May, as the full economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic started to emerge. The group eased the curbs to 7.7 million barrels per day in August, sensing a tepid recovery in global economic activity. Under the current agreement, the collective curbs are scheduled to taper again to 5.8 million barrels per day from January – but average demand from Asia, a second lockdown in the United Kingdom, new lockdowns in Europe and the worrying trajectory of the virus in the United States have prompted some ministers to advocate for an extension of the current cuts. "Our base case remains that the group will err on the side of caution and heed the market's anxieties stemming from the virus resurgence on both sides of the Atlantic and unite behind a 3 months delay in its next phase 1.9m b/d of tapering to April 2021," However, some members of the group are arguing against the length and depth of the extension, pointing to optimism over promising vaccine results which have helped to push oil prices to their highest level since March, further complicating ability to reach a consensus. It is understood that some members of the group, including Iraq and the UAE, have expressed misgivings about its policy over supply.

Oil Slides After Tuesday's OPEC Meeting Rescheduled "As More Talks Needed" - On the first day of OPEC's Vienna meeting, when nothing was achieved due to continued resistance from such oil producers as the UAE, Kazakhstan and Iraq, who refuse to extend production cuts, and when delegates leaked that a decision would likely be forthcoming after tomorrow's OPEC+ meeting, moments ago oil slumped following a Bloomberg report that tomorrow's meeting has been "rescheduled to Dec 3 as more talks are needed." Oil and the energy complex promptly slumped following the report. What to make of this? Well, nothing much as this is just outlier OPEC+ nations such as Kazakhstan and the UAE trying to stretch their muscles and pull a Mexico which managed to gain a modest production cut reprieve during the last OPEC+ negotiations. Of course, once you start on the rout of making exceptions for one member, you need to make exceptions for more (or all). Which likely means that while a production cut extension deal is guaranteed, it will again come at the expense of Saudi Arabia which will likel have to eat more of the deficit output, since OPEC's minor members refuse to step up. And since for Riyadh it makes far more sense to cut output modestly, than to watch as oil plunges from $48 back to $20 (or even lower), there should be no doubt that the outcome of the OPEC+ summit will ensure a continuation of the production status quo. The only question is how much will Saudi Arabia be on the hook for, and when will algos realize all of this, sending the price of oil sharply higher.

Saudi Arabia mulls quitting role as co-chair of OPEC+ JMMC - This is a murky headline at the moment but it might suggest that OPEC or Saudi Arabia is unhappy with the status quo... and the status quo is the only thing holding the oil market together.WTI quickly to $44.69.  For now, there's no story to go along with the headline. It could be anything from simple mechanics to a sign of trouble. My guess is that it's probably nothing but given the run that oil has had and the looming event risk, I understand the market reaction.  The JMMC is the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee and it's the group that oversees production quotas and the month-to-month deliberations ahead of the summits.

 Amid OPEC Turmoil, Mexico Banks Over $2 Billion From Oil Hedge - As various members of the OPEC cartel argue (virtually) over extending production cuts, losing market share, and collapsing domestic sovereign revenues amid a pandemic-driven global economic slump, one oil-producing nation is doing very well on its own... again. Having abandoned the OPEC+ production cut deal earlier in the year, Bloomberg reports that Mexico will cash in its oil price insurance policy this year for the fourth time only in the last two decades, receiving a payout of about $2.5 billion from its 2020 sovereign oil hedge, people familiar with the transaction said.  By way of background, Bloomberg's Javier Blas, who has closely followed Mexico's oil hedgers in the recent past previously wrote, for the last two decades, Mexico has bought "Asian" style put options from some of the most prominent US investment banks and oil companies, in what’s considered Wall Street’s largest - and most closely guarded - annual oil deal.  The options give Mexico the right to sell its oil at a predetermined price. They are the equivalent of an insurance policy: the country banks all gains from higher prices but enjoys the security of a minimum floor. So - unlike all of its OPEC peers - if oil prices remain weak or plunge even further, Mexico will still book higher prices.  Bloomberg notes that this year’s hedge expired earlier this week, as the program runs annually from Dec. 1 to Nov. 30, triggering the payment mechanism. The government hasn’t yet disclosed the amount, but it released some financial data earlier this year that allows analysts to make an approximate calculation. "The insurance policy isn’t cheap," Mexican Finance Minister Arturo Herrera told broadcaster Televisa earlier this year. But it’s insurance for times like now. Our fiscal budget isn’t going to be hit."  The hedge payout - which Bloomberg cites sources who prefer to be not named - will go a long way to covering the shortfall since Mexico's oil basket price averaged $36.40/bbl from Dec 1st to Nov 30th, well below the budgeted $49/bbl level...

OPEC+ Works Silently to Repair Cracks-- After failed talks exposed a dangerous fissure at the alliance’s core, OPEC and its partners are quietly working to repair the damage. Key players in the 23-nation alliance are making diplomatic efforts to resolve a dispute -- centered around Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- over how much crude to pump in the new year. They need to thrash out a compromise before ministers gather on Thursday, at a meeting that’s been postponed because of the impasse. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners rescued the oil market this year from an unprecedented slump, slashing production as the pandemic crushed demand. If their pact breaks down, prices would sink again, battering an industry that spans tiny nations like Gabon to corporate giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp. On Monday, differences between the Saudis and the UAE prevented the cartel from reaching a clear agreement on whether to delay a planned production increase. Traditionally stalwart allies, a fissure has emerged between the two Persian Gulf exporters as Abu Dhabi pursues a more independent oil policy. Delegates spent Tuesday consulting with their governments and exchanging ideas over the phone. For now, the results are hidden within the opaque world of Middle East diplomacy, but several delegates said on Wednesday that the consultations had so far been positive. “OPEC+ often generates drama, and this time tensions are running high,” said Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC. “But we still believe that the group will probably find some face-saving compromise, with a short extension of the current cuts being the most likely outcome.” Most nations at Monday’s online session favored deferring the 1.9 million-barrel daily supply increase due to take effect in January by three months. With a new wave of virus infections hitting the global economy, they believe demand is still too fragile to absorb additional crude. But the UAE pushed back, delegates said. Without openly opposing a delay, Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei insisted on stringent conditions -- mainly the speedy implementation of cuts that other members owed in compensation for pumping too much in prior months -- that rendered an agreement all but impossible. In an apparent gesture of frustration, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told the group that he may resign as co-chair of a key OPEC+ panel. Al Mazrouei was offered the post, but refused, according to a person familiar with the situation. “The market is underestimating a little bit how serious this is -- this is one of Saudi Arabia’s biggest allies,” This procedural dispute masks the UAE’s deeper dissatisfaction with OPEC supply restrictions, which “does not bode well for collective cohesion in 2021,” according to Croft.

WTI Extends Gains On OPEC Headway, Ignores Slump In Gasoline Demand -- Oil prices are rallying further after this headline hit: OPEC+ has made headway toward deal: Delegate  Apparently shrugging off the collapse in gasoline demand on the busiest driving week of the year.  Oil prices rebounded overnight as hope for an OPEC+ agreement tomorrow (and vaccine hype) trumped a big surprise build in crude and product stocks reported by API.  “The market is pricing in a solution that will not see extra barrels hit the market during the early part of 2021,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. It appears that “OPEC+ will not shoot themselves in the foot so close to an expected pickup in demand.”The algos appear to believe that OPEC can bridge - with production cut extensions - until everything is awesome again post-vaccine and the collapse in air travel and commuting enables a resurgence in fuel demand worldwide.  DOE

• Crude -679k (-1.7mm exp)
• Cushing -317k
• Gasoline +3.491mm (+2mm exp) - biggest build since April 2020
• Distillates +3.238mm (+100k exp) - biggest build since Sept 2020

Official inventory data rebuffed API's crude build with a modest draw (less than expected), but gasoline and distillates stocks soared far more than expected...  That is thee first distillates build in 11 weeks.  US crude production could finally be back at a 'steady' state as storm-driven shut-ins finally fade away.

Oil jumps more than 1% on UK vaccine approval, ongoing OPEC talks - Oil prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday as the market awaited a pact from producers on output, which many traders expect will continue to be reined in, and Britain's approval of a COVID-19 vaccine boosted hopes for a demand recovery. Brent crude oil futures rose 94 cents, or 2%, at $48.36 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 1.64%, or 73 cents, higher at $45.28 per barrel. Traders were watching the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other allies, known as OPEC+, which postponed talks on next year's oil output policy to Thursday from Tuesday, according to sources. "It looks like there is headway being made, which the market is looking for," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. This year, the group imposed production cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) as the coronavirus pandemic hit fuel demand. It had been widely expected to roll those reductions over into January-March 2021 amid new spikes in COVID-19 cases. But the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said this week that even though it could support a rollover, it would struggle to continue with the same deep output reductions into 2021. On Wednesday, Britain became the first Western country to approve a COVID-19 vaccine, jumping ahead of the United States and the European Union in a possible return to normal life and recovery in oil demand. "News of the UK vaccine approval is what the oil market needed more than anything else to get demand up...the rest is largely just noise," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. U.S. crude inventories fell by 679,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 27, according to data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, defying the build the American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday. U.S. oil production rose 100,000 barrels per day last week to its highest level since May, the EIA data showed.

Oil prices rise on UK vaccine approval; signs OPEC+ may maintain output cuts  (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Wednesday as Britain’s approval of a COVID-19 vaccine boosted hopes for a demand recovery and on mounting expectations that producing countries will maintain output limits next year. Brent crude oil futures settled up 83 cents, or 1.75%, at $48.25 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 73 cents or 1.64% at $45.28 a barrel. Traders were watching OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other allies, which postponed talks on 2021 output policy to Thursday from Tuesday, according to sources. “Today’s strong advance appeared largely based on indications of progress at today’s OPEC meeting that could potentially clear the way for a rubber stamp at the OPEC+ talks that are still scheduled for tomorrow,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois. This year, the group imposed production cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) as the coronavirus pandemic hit fuel demand. It had been widely expected to roll those reductions over into January-March 2021 amid new spikes in COVID-19 cases. Earlier this week, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it would struggle to continue its deep output reductions into 2021.

Oil drops as OPEC+ resume talks on output cut extension after impasse - Oil prices fell on Thursday as producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia locked horns over the need to extend record production cuts set in place in the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Brent crude was down 15 cents, or 0.3%, at $48.10 a barrel by 0155 GMT, after gaining 1.8% on Wednesday. U.S. oil was down 17 cents, or 0.4%, at $45.11 a barrel, having ended 1.6% higher the previous session. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia are resuming discussions on Thursday to agree on policies for 2021 after earlier talks produced no compromise on how to tackle weak oil demand amid a new coronavirus wave. OPEC and allies, in the group known as OPEC+, had been widely expected to roll over oil cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day, or 8 percent of global supplies, at least until March 2021. But after hopes for a speedy approval of anti-virus vaccines spurred a rally in oil prices at the end of November, some producers questioned the need to tighten oil policy, which is supported by OPEC leader Saudi Arabia. "Any sign that the group is struggling to reach an agreement could weigh on prices," ANZ Research said in a note. Britain approved Pfizer Inc's Covid-19 vaccine on Wednesday, jumping ahead in a global race to start the most crucial mass inoculation program in history. In the United States, crude stockpiles fell last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose sharply as refiners slowed production amid weakening demand, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Oil stocks fell by 679,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 27, by less than the 2.4 million-barrel decline forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts. Gasoline stocks increased by 3.5 million barrels, while distillate inventories were up by 3.2 million barrels. Adding to international supplies, Venezuela's crude exports almost doubled last month, according to data from the state-run PDVSA and Refinitiv Eikon.

OPEC+ agrees to gradually increase crude production— OPEC and non-OPEC allies, after days of tense discussions, agreed on Thursday to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day beginning in January. This will bring the total production cuts at the start of 2021 to 7.2 million bpd. Ahead of the meeting, OPEC and its partners, known collectively as OPEC+, were widely expected to extend the current production cut of 7.7 million bpd through at least March. Talks were suspended on Tuesday after it became clear they were unable to reach a compromise. Oil ministers from the 23-member group, which is composed of some of the world's largest crude producers, kicked off their meeting around 10 a.m. ET, following a several-hour delay. "500,000 bpd from January is not the nightmare scenario that the market feared, but it is not what was really expected weeks ago," said Rystad Energy senior oil markets analyst Paola Rodriguez Masiu. "Markets are now reacting positively and prices are recording a small increase as 500,000 of extra supply is not deadly for balances," she added. Following the meeting, international benchmark Brent crude futures traded 1.4% higher at $48.92 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled 36 cents, or 0.8%, higher at $45.64 per barrel. Both price contracts snapped a multiday losing streak in the previous session, closing higher on encouraging Covid-19 vaccine news. Oil prices remain more than 25% lower year to date. In April, after days of protracted talks, OPEC+ agreed to the largest single output cut in history. The record cut of 9.7 million barrels per day started on May 1 but was subsequently scaled back to 7.7 million in August. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia was thought to be the main advocate of keeping the current level of cuts in place until the end of the first quarter. However, some producers questioned this approach following a sustained rally in oil prices last month. Analysts believe some non-OPEC allies, such as Russian and Kazakhstan, have been calling for a gradual increase to production curbs, whereas the United Arab Emirates has ostensibly been pushing for a strategy designed to improve compliance from overproducing countries. Speculation of a rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE earlier this week came as a surprise to some because of the UAE's stature within OPEC. It is the group's third-biggest producer and a close Gulf ally of Saudi Arabia.

Oil Prices Climb After OPEC+ Makes Deal  | Rigzone - Global crude surged to the highest since early March after OPEC+ agreed on a compromise deal to gradually ease output curbs beginning early next year. Brent futures, the benchmark for most of the world’s oil, climbed 1% in London after delegates reached an agreement for the cartel to add 500,000 barrels a day to the market in January. Ministers will now hold monthly consultations to determine how to adjust production in subsequent months, the delegate said, asking not to be named because the information was private. The agreement took place against the backdrop of an oil futures curve that is suggesting additional production is needed. Brent’s nearest futures are at a premium to later ones, a structure known as backwardation that indicates tight supply. Meanwhile, the December 2021-December 2022 spreads for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent have recently moved to backwardation and furthered their rally on Thursday. “These are minor increases in production, they’re not rolling back the entire cut,” said Gary Cunningham, director of account management and research at Tradition Energy. “Meanwhile, euphoria from a vaccine eventually helping support economic conditions is helping offset production increases.” The market had widely expected OPEC+ to extend current production cuts by a quarter, but that option ran into obstacles earlier this week amid a clash between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Maintaining the delicate balance the oil market finds itself in has been a complex task, with demand recovering at varying speeds worldwide and prospects for a vaccine buoying the outlook further out even as near-term risks persist. The new agreement keeps in place additional compensation cuts until March for members who failed to fully implement their supply curbs in previous months. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak signaled optionality in the gradual tapering plan, saying adjustments to the output deal can be made in either direction. “There’s some relief the meeting didn’t fall apart and that OPEC+ is still functioning,” said Andrew Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group. “But as prices rally, there’s going to be an incentive for producers to want to sell extra barrels, so keeping to this 500,000 barrel a day increase may be quite difficult.” West Texas Intermediate for January delivery rose 36 cents to settle at $45.64 a barrel, the highest in more than a week. Brent for February settlement gained 46 cents to $48.71 a barrel. At the same time, hopes for another round of U.S. fiscal stimulus are raising the prospect of a more immediate boost to demand ahead of a widespread vaccine rollout. While Democrats and Republicans remain at an impasse that’s lasted since the summer, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Thursday it was “heartening” that Democrats embraced a smaller price tag for a stimulus package without giving any indication he was willing to raise his own offer to get a deal.

 Oil jumps to highest level since March after OPEC+ reaches a supply compromise - Brent crude oil futures rose to just under $50 a barrel on Friday as expectations of a U.S. economic stimulus package and the possibility of a vaccine for the coronavirus overrode rising supply and increased COVID-19 deaths. A bipartisan $908 billion coronavirus aid plan gained momentum in the U.S. Congress. Brent gained 1.11% to settle at $49.25 per barrel after hitting its highest since early March at $49.92. West Texas Intermediate rose settled 0.99% higher at $46.26 per barrel after touching a high of $46.68 a barrel. Both benchmarks are set for a fifth straight week of gains. "We're higher, despite super bearish events - it's all about stimulus," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. "You can't go home short this weekend because they could sign a deal this weekend." OPEC+, comprising of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, agreed on a compromise to increase output slightly from January but continue the bulk of existing supply curbs to cope with coronavirus-hit demand. OPEC and Russia on Thursday agreed to ease deep oil output cuts from January by 500,000 barrels per day with further as yet undefined increases on a monthly basis, failing to reach a compromise on a broader policy for the rest of 2021. OPEC+ had been expected to continue existing cuts until at least March, after backing down from plans to raise output by 2 million bpd. The increase means the group will reduce production by 7.2 million bpd, or 7% of global demand from January, compared with current cuts of 7.7 million bpd. While some analysts saw an undersupplied oil market even under the new higher supply quotas, others expected the barrels would tip the market into oversupply. Wood Mackenzie analysts, for example, expect that if the increases continue through March there might be 1.6 million unwanted bpd in the first quarter. The premium of Brent crude futures for nearby delivery to future months is at its highest since February, a structure called backwardation, which usually points to supplies tightening up and suggests receding fears of a current glut. U.S. production, meanwhile, has recovered from the two-and-a-half-year lows touched in May mainly because shale producers have brought wells back online in response to rising prices.

Oil rises, hovers below $50/bbl on hopes for U.S. stimulus (Reuters) - Brent crude oil futures rose more than 1% on Friday, remaining just under $50 a barrel, as expectations of a U.S. economic stimulus package and the possibility of a vaccine for the coronavirus overrode rising supply and increased COVID-19 deaths. A bipartisan $908 billion coronavirus aid plan gained momentum in the U.S. Congress. Brent settled up 54 cents or 1.11% at $49.25 a barrel. During the session, the contract hit its highest since early March at $49.92. West Texas Intermediate rose 62 cents to $46.26 a barrel, after touching a high of $46.68 a barrel. Both benchmarks gained for a fifth consecutive week, with Brent up 1.7% and U.S. crude up 1.9%. “We’re higher, despite super bearish events - it’s all about stimulus,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. “You can’t go home short this weekend because they could sign a deal this weekend.” OPEC+, comprising of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, on Thursday agreed on a compromise to increase output slightly from January but continue the bulk of existing supply curbs to cope with coronavirus-hit demand. OPEC and Russia agreed to ease deep oil output cuts from January by 500,000 barrels per day with further as yet undefined increases on a monthly basis, failing to reach a compromise on a broader policy for the rest of 2021. OPEC+ had been expected to continue existing cuts until at least March, after backing down from plans to raise output by 2 million bpd. The increase means the group will reduce production by 7.2 million bpd, or 7% of global demand from January, compared with current cuts of 7.7 million bpd. While some analysts saw an undersupplied oil market even under the new higher supply quotas, others expected the barrels would tip the market into oversupply. Wood Mackenzie analysts, for example, expect that if the increases continue through March, there might be 1.6 million bpd unwanted in the first quarter. The premium of Brent crude futures for nearby delivery to future months is at its highest since February, a structure called backwardation, which usually points to supplies tightening up and suggests receding fears of a current glut. U.S. production, meanwhile, has recovered from the two-and-a-half-year lows touched in May mainly because shale producers have brought wells back online in response to rising prices.

Oil Rises for Fifth Week With OPEC+ Deal Uncertainty in Rearview - Oil rose for a fifth straight week with support from an OPEC+ deal and hopes for another round of U.S. stimulus. Futures in New York and London closed at fresh nine-month highs on Friday, with signs that momentum is building toward a fiscal stimulus plan that could provide an immediate demand boost, before a vaccine is widely available. Prices had already been rising after OPEC+ reached a compromise agreement that offers something for members concerned about the fragility of the market, as well as nations who want to pump more to take advantage of higher prices. The agreement involves adding 500,000 barrels a day of production to the market next month, then hold monthly meetings to decide on subsequent moves. “At the beginning of the week, there was a sense that there would be no stimulus, and now it looks like there will at least be some limited aid and enough to make a difference in the U.S.,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. Meanwhile, “OPEC+ members seem to be sticking to the idea of keeping production down,” even if the decision wasn’t what had widely been expected. Oil has recently reached the highest levels since March amid optimism over an impending vaccine rollout lifting demand next year. Alongside the rally in headline crude prices, the oil futures curve is signaling tighter supply as demand in Asia booms and the key North Sea market strengthens. The prompt timespread for Brent crude moved back into backwardation this week, while the nearest December contract is trading at a higher level than the same contract for December 2022. “The fact that Asian countries have been coming out of this situation for several months, that’s been the one bright spot,” said Josh Graves, senior market strategist at RJ O’Brien & Associates LLC. “The trend is likely going to continue and be the biggest single driver for demand at least in the short term.”

 Brent crude could drop to $45 in 2021 despite positive vaccine news, Fitch Ratings says — Fitch Ratings expects Brent prices to drop to $45 per barrel in 2021 — even though there's good news on the vaccine front, the credit rating agency said this week. That's close to 9% lower than what a Refinitiv Eikon poll is predicting. Brent crude could be around $49.35 next year, with $50 being the most common forecast, according to a survey of 36 analysts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the international benchmark to be at $46.59. Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said the company is more cautious. "We expect prices to be, on average, at $45 next year for Brent," he told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Friday. "This assumes that the demand will remain weak until at least the second half of the year, because the progress with mass vaccination probably will not be very quick." This week, the U.K. became the first country to approve Pfizer and BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use. It is set to be given to medical workers from next week. But doctors have warned that it will likely take months before vaccines are widely available. Oil prices rose when a few pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, announced high efficacy rates of more than 90% last month. Still, Marinchenko said vaccines will "probably not have a significant impact" on oil demand until the second half of 2021. "With weak demand, and with OPEC trying to manage supply … to avoid large surpluses or deficits in the market, we expect prices to be at $45 next year," he said. An offshore drilling platform stands in shallow waters at the Manifa offshore oilfield, operated by Saudi Aramco, in Manifa, Saudi Arabia. Simon Dawson | Bloomberg | Getty Images OPEC and its allies on Thursday made a deal to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day from January — much lower than the original agreement in April to raise output by 2 million barrels a day. That brings the production cuts to 7.2 million bpd from 2021. Both oil benchmarks rose on Friday, with Brent up 2.01% at $49.69 an

Iran Nuclear Scientist Was Shot With Mounted Remote-Controlled Machine Gun - Iranian state media has issued for the first time the stunning details of last Friday's assassination of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.  Importantly, Iranian state media is claiming that a machine gun recovered from the site was made in Israel. "The remains of the weapon used in the Friday assassination of senior nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh show that it was made in Israel, an informed source has told Press TV," according to the state-run English language news site. The killing was done "entirely remotely" with no assassins on the ground and no apparent drone activity, according to Iranian officials.  "The source made the revelation on Monday, saying the weapon collected from the site of the terrorist act bears the logo and specifications of the Israeli military industry," PressTV continued. Tehran officials said they will soon publicize all available evidence showing who was behind the hit, which occurred in a small city east of the capital and included a hail of gunfire and detonation of a vehicle which took out the scientist's convoy and body guards. Officials have further vowed "hard revenge" for the killing which they had in the hours after blamed on Israel. Initially international reports strongly suggested a multiple-man hit team forced Fakhrizadeh's vehicle to stop before opening fire. However, Iranian state media just dropped details suggesting sophisticated remote-controlled machine guns were used.  On Monday Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Islamic Republic's Supreme National Security Council, confirmed that it is Iranian investigators' belief that Israel used "electronic devices" to take out Fakhrizadeh, according to the Associated Press.

UAE Condemns "Heinous" Killing Of Iran Scientist In Rare Break From Israel-Gulf Axis Last Friday's assassination of top Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is putting immense strain on the newly 'normalized' ties between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. The UAE late on Sunday issued a statement strongly denouncing the attack that it called a "crime" that could destabilize the region. This after Tehran has vowed to retaliate, yet without giving details of what form this might take. The UAE "condemns the heinous assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, which could further fuel conflict in the region," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation said, as cited in Bloomberg. "The state of instability our region is currently going through, and the security challenges it faces, drive us all to work towards averting acts that could lead to escalation and eventually threaten the stability of the entire region," it added. Signed on September 15, the 'Abraham Accords' opened up formal diplomatic relations and economic dealings between Israel and the tiny oil-rich Gulf country for the first time in history. Bahrain was also involved, and Sudan is said to be the next Arab League member to normalize ties, with the State Department now urging Saudi Arabia to follow.

US Carrier Strike Group Heads To Gulf As Iran Threatens Retaliation -- The nuclear-powered USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and its strike group are in transit to the Persian Gulf where it will oversee the Trump-ordered withdrawal of up to 5,000 American troops from the region in the coming weeks and months. It's part of Trump's belated efforts to drastically reduce American presence from Iraq and Afghanistan and to bring the troops home.  The carrier group will provide "defensive capabilities" amid the large-scale logistical operation. While it was deployed prior to the dramatic events of the past days which has seen soaring tensions between Iran, Israel and the US over the high profile assassination of Iran's top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the deployment comes as both Iran and Israel are on 'high alert' and a war-footing.  "This action ensures we have sufficient capability available to respond to any threat and to deter any adversary from acting against our troops during the force reduction," a weekend Pentagon said statement said. Over the past week the Islamic Republic's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has stepped up its naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz, believed to be a 'show of strength' after widespread reports this month that Trump may be mulling preemptive military action against Iran.  Tehran has charged that Israel was behind the Friday assassination of Fakhrizadeh in an effort to draw it into a full-blown war, which would also likely draw in the US.

China's Xi Continues To Urge Troops Toward 'War Readiness' Over Taiwan Issue - China's President Xi Jinping has continued to tell his armed forces that they should prepare for potential war amid heightened hostilities with America, particularly over the Taiwan issue. Speaking to a room full of People's Liberation Army (PLA) leaders and officers at the Jingxi Hotel in Beijing this past week, Xi hailed the "new era" of a highly modernized fighting force which has transformed the PLA into a world-class fighting force.  The address to the Central Military Commission featured him ordering all officers and soldiers to focus on preparing for war "under real combat conditions," according to quotes in state Xinhua News Agency.  He further stressed that the national soldiers must not "fear hardship and do not fear death" while committing further to deepening training.  "Military training is the regular and central task of the army. It is the basic way to generate and improve combat effectiveness. It is the most direct preparation for military battles," said Xinhua, citing the chairman.  Over the past month Xi has toured various military bases while urging war preparations and readiness. This also comes as naval and air forces step up drills off China's coast, particularly near the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea.   Western analysts and media have tended to interpret this latest jingoistic rhetoric as something more than just the usual military orders of 'readiness' common to all national militaries: Earlier this month, China's state broadcaster released footage of the country's soldiers launching multiple missiles to take down enemy targets during a live-fire drill.   In a clip released by Beijing in September, nuclear-capable bombers are seen carrying out a simulated attack on what appears to be the US Andersen Air Force Base on the Pacific island of Guam.   China has been flexing its military muscles since tensions heightened between China and the United States over Taiwan.

Measures of Chinese Economic Activity Signal Widening Recovery – WSJ —Gauges of China’s manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activity climbed to their highest levels in three and eight years, respectively, signaling a broadening recovery in the world’s second-largest economy nearly a year after the coronavirus began its spread. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index, a key measure of factory activity, rose to 52.1 in November from 51.4 in October, according to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics. The reading is the highest since September 2017 and topped economists’ expectations for the index to edge up to 51.5 this month. Meanwhile, China’s nonmanufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction activity, rose in November to 56.4, its highest level since June 2012, from a previous reading of 56.2 in October, the statistics bureau said. China’s industrial sector has led the nation’s economic recovery since the second quarter of the year, and the official manufacturing PMI has remained above the 50 mark, which separates month-to-month activity expansion from contraction, since March. Now, with the coronavirus staying broadly under control within China’s borders, life is returning to normal in there, which has helped the other major segment of the economy—services—to catch up. “A lot of restaurants are already full with long lines at the door. People are consuming and factories are already at their full capacity,” said Zhu Chaoping, a Shanghai-based global market strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The reason, he says: “We see the pandemic is controlled.” Overall domestic consumption in China benefited as well in November from an annual shopping event, known as Singles Day, that broke its annual sales record this year after e-commerce company Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. extended the period of discounting. Monday’s manufacturing data showed strength beneath the headline number. The subindex measuring production increased to 54.7 from 53.9 in October while total new orders, the gauge’s main driver, rose to 53.9 after remaining unchanged for two months at 52.8. And the export-orders component increased to 51.5 in November, up from 51.0, remaining above the 50 mark for three straight months. Mr. Zhu said he sees room for China’s manufacturing strength to continue in the coming months, pointing to indicators suggesting that inventories are being depleted, which he said could lead to “a wave of restocking.” Mr. Zhu was also encouraged by a small uptick in the manufacturing PMI’s employment subindex, which points to factories hiring more employees to keep up with demand. China’s export machine, the main driver of the country’s economic recovery, has beaten economists’ gloomy expectations repeatedly this year. Outbound shipments from China rose 11.4% in October from a year earlier.

Multiple Sri Lankan prisoners dead after protest over COVID-19 response - At least eight Sri Lankan prisoners have been killed and more than 50 injured in clashes with guards amid protests over COVID-19 outbreaks in the country's jails.  Prisons across the country have reported thousands of coronavirus infections in recent months, Reuters reported on Monday. Inmates have held demonstrations calling for additional COVID-19 testing and quarantine facilities.  A clash at the Mahara prison, near the city of Colombo, began on Sunday when inmates protested over prisoners who had tested positive for COVID-19 being transported there, according to Reuters.  At least 59 prisoners were injured as the demonstrations escalated with prison guards. Two guards were critically injured, the Associated Press reported.  Ajith Rohana, a senior police official, confirmed to Reuters that “most of the deaths and injuries appear to be due to gunshots." A majority of the prisoners injured were in critical condition, Shelton Perera, director of the Ragama Hospital where inmates from the Mahara prison were being treated, told the outlet. Sri Lanka has reported 23,987 coronavirus cases and 118 deaths, according to an estimate from Johns Hopkins University.

Airline Says They Won’t Let People Fly If They’re Not Vaccinated - Qantas, the leading Australian airline, has announced that it will not allow passengers to fly on international flights unless they can show documents proving that they have had the COVID-19 vaccine. Alan Joyce, the airline’s chief executive, said that he believes a vaccine will become a requirement for other airlines as soon as one is rolled out. Qantas is currently operating at a much lower capacity than they typically do, as a majority of the airline’s international routes are suspended because the country has temporarily closed its borders to travelers during the pandemic.Most of these routes won’t be reopened until sometime in the middle of next year, and when they do, vaccine proof is expected to be required by most airlines, if not all of them, and if the airlines don’t require vaccinations for travel, governments might.In an interview with Channel 9 in Australia, Joyce said, “We are looking at changing our terms and conditions to say for international travelers, we will ask people to have a vaccination before they can get on the aircraft. I think that’s going to be a common thing talking to my colleagues in other airlines around the globe.” “What we’re looking at is how you can have a vaccination passport, an electronic version of it, that certifies what the vaccine is, is it acceptable to the country you are traveling to. There’s a lot of logistics, a lot of technology that will be needed to put in place to make this happen, but the airlines and the governments are working on this as we speak,” he added.Joyce said that he is confident that a successful coronavirus vaccine will be rolled out on the market very soon and allow borders to open up slowly throughout 2021.

Airlines and the conflict of vaccine visions - Covid-19 has been the single biggest hit to the bottom line of the airline industry in recent times. IATA, the International Air Transport Association, estimated last week that the pandemic would cost the sector as much $157bn, much worse than previously estimated.The collapse in passenger demand wasn’t just the result of government-mandated restrictions. Official curbs, quarantines and working-from-home mandates made it far more difficult to travel, but passenger numbers continued to suffer even after restrictions were loosened over the summer. This is because fears about the ease of catching the virus while in the air continued to linger.To raise confidence, airlines have implemented numerous risk-reduction measures, albeit within the usual cost-benefit parameters. Such measures (often also government-mandated) include mask-enforcement, socially distanced seating and in some cases (but not always!) passenger symptom-screening on entry to the aircraft. The big question facing the industry now is whether to follow such steps to their apparently logical conclusion and make vaccination mandatory.On that front, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce caused an uproar online last week when he declared airlines across the world should consider enforcing “no-vaccination no-fly” policies to get the industry going again.He told Australia’s Channel 9: “We are looking at changing our terms and conditions to say for international travellers, we will ask people to have a vaccination before they can get on the aircraft.” He added that he believed such requirements would become commonplace. One might see Qantas as particularly well-placed to take the lead on such a strategy – not least because its brand is so closely associated with safety, But this bid to drum up passenger count by pacifying the overly fearful who might otherwise still avoid air travel instead went proverbially viral among another equally fearful demographic, the anti-vaxxer brigade. Unlike the Covid fearful, whose core anxiety arguably stems from the belief that nature can be more dangerous than the scientific institutions we have created to help us navigate those risks, anti-vaxxers’ fears originate from a distrust in the authorities we have positioned in such roles. Anti-vaxxer sentiment appears to be on the rise (alongside anti-lockdown sentiment too). Given the potential preponderance of the constrained group in society, are the likes of Qantas favouring one anxiety over the other? And in so doing, are they creating a negative feedback loop that inadvertently feeds the anti-vaxxer cause? Which leads to our final question: does demanding vaccine certificates actually make business sense?

Brazen armed bank heist in Brazil leaves cash scattered on road - Bank robbers in southern Brazil blasted explosives and fired high-calibre weapons at police late on Monday, in an audacious heist that wounded two people and left reams of cash in the streets to be pocketed by locals. The robbery began just before midnight on Monday in the southern city of Criciuma and lasted nearly two hours, according to a statement from military police in Santa Catarina state. Terrifying images shared on social media showed armed men firing automatic weapons on the city streets, taking hostages and then making their getaway in a fleet of cars. In their wake, the robbers left cash strewn across the streets. Residents soon spread out to snatch up the notes, television footage showed. “So far, four people have been arrested who collected part of the paper bills that were thrown to the ground due to the explosion,” the police said. Authorities have located 810,000 reals ($154,120), police added. There were at least 30 criminals in 10 cars, Anselmo Cruz, the head of the state police’s robbery and kidnapping department, told television network Globo News. They blocked access points to the city to prevent police reinforcements from responding swiftly. “It was an unprecedented action for the state. There was never anything with this scope, this violence,” Cruz said Tuesday. Police later located the attackers’ vehicles in a neighbouring municipality, Cruz said. Criciuma’s Mayor Clesio Salvaro took to Twitter while the events were still unfolding to warn locals of the “robbery of great proportions, by very well-prepared thieves”. “As mayor of Criciuma, I ask that you stay home, don’t leave home, exercise all precaution,” Salvaro said in a video he posted just before 2am local time (05:00 GMT). “Tell your friends and families. Let the police do their job.”

The Scarring Effect of COVID-19: Youth Unemployment in Europe - Youth unemployment increased dramatically in several European Union countries during the Global Financial Crisis. It took several years before youth unemployment rates came down to, or fell below, pre-crisis levels. Even by 2019, this had not been achieved in all EU countries. The COVID-19 pandemic is now posing the same threat: younger generations are facing a harsher labour market than older generations. Figure 1 shows unemployment in EU countries for workers aged 15-24 and those aged 55-64. Youth unemployment increased during the second quarter of 2020, while unemployment remained almost unchanged compare to the year before for the older cohort (we did not find a significant difference when adjusting youth unemployment for gender; see Fig. 3 in the annex). Figure 2 shows changes in the EU employment and activity rate (a measure of success of an economy in engaging the population in the labour force) for the two cohorts. It shows data on those in employment and actively seeking work. For people aged over 55, the increase in the rate each year has been consistently high, with an overall increase in the employment rate of more than 15 percentage points over the last decade. The pandemic has changed this positive upward trend, but only to a limited degree so far. This is in stark contrast to the young cohort, for whom the increase in the employment rate was much more moderate pre-pandemic after the Global Financial Crisis, quickly turning substantially negative when COVID-19 hit. A glance at labour market slack data, or the shortfall between the work desired by workers and the volume of work available, does not provide any cause for optimism. Table 1 shows that young active jobseekers are two or three times less likely than those aged over 55 to be able to find a job. The professional experience of older people plays a crucial role in this disparity, which makes tackling unemployment among young people all the more pressing in times of rising unemployment. Moreover, Table 2 shows a substantial increase in the proportion of under-25s who are not even seeking work, even though they are available to work (unemployment figures only include those who are actively seeking work: the numbers in Table 2 include discouraged jobseekers and persons prevented from looking for work due to personal or family circumstances).  Beyond the immediate negative effects of unemployment on individuals and public finances, youth unemployment has been shown to have longer-term effects. The literature on the ‘scarring effect’, the effect of being young and unemployed, shows there are irreversible consequences (see for example Arulampalam, 2001;Darvas and Wolff 2016). For instance, Gianni De Fraja and Sara Lemos found that “an additional month of unemployment between ages 18 and 20 permanently lowers earnings by around 1.2% per year”. Burgess (2003) found that unemployment early in an individual’s career increases the probability of subsequent unemployment.

Big Banks Grow Bigger and Smaller Banks Disappear, As Mergers Return to Crisis-Hit Eurozone --  The ECB has a dream: to unleash a whirlwind of consolidation across the Eurozone’s banking system, out of which will arise a new breed of giant trans-European bank. The operations of these new mega-lenders will straddle the continent, thus helping to finally convert the Eurozone into a genuine single financial market. Their gargantuan size will allow them to finally compete with their mega-bank rivals from the U.S. and China. At least that’s the theory. As an added bonus, these mega-bank deals can serve as handy cover for stealth recapitalisations of failed or failing banks. This dream is not new, of course. One of the crowning goals of Europe’s half-baked Banking Union, initiated in 2014, was to enhance dramatically the concentration and consolidation of the banking sector.    By 2018, there were 5,698 banks in the EU, 30% fewer than in 2008.The ECB could sharply accelerate this trend if it proceeds with its proposal to introduce a central bank digital currency (CBDC) at some undefined moment in the future. Some economists, including the authors of a new report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, have warned that CBDCs could end up significantly reducing or even eliminating the raison d’être of commercial banks, as the central bank “arises as a deposit monopolist, attracting all deposits away from the commercial banking sector.” Before that happens, the massive tsunami of defaulting loans and cascading losses that is fast approaching as debt holidays come to an end could provide an opportunity in the interim to thin the herd. A fresh round of bank failures and mergers will once again serve as a launchpad for further consolidation. As the ultimate decider of which struggling banks get to live or die and which lucky competitor gets to pick up the sanitised pieces afterwards, the ECB’s Supervisory Board will be in an ideal position to drive this type of consolidation forward.  European Central Bank supervisor Andrea Enria said the coronavirus crisis would create room for mergers and acquisitions, both domestically and cross-border, as it pummels banks’ profitability. To get the ball rolling, the central bank has already lowered the bar for mergers, in the hope of encouraging banks to buy up rivals. As Reuters reported in July, merged entities won’t necessarily have to raise extra capital and will be allowed to use their own accounting models as well as any “badwill” — a paper profit that occurs when an asset is bought below its book value.

French Protesters Set Fire To Central Bank - One of the recurring questions amid the year's countless BLM protests and associated riots has been why instead of burning and looting innocent businesses, the angry mob does not target the source of all wealth, income and social inequality - not just in the US but the world - the central bank, i.e. Federal Reserve (located at 2051 Constitution Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20418 for those unaware). Yet while US protesters and rioters still need guidance what buildings to burn down, their French peers are finally catching on. Over the weekend, tens of thousands of critics of a proposed security law that would restrict the filming of police officers protested across France on Saturday, and officers in Paris who were advised to behave responsibly during the demonstrations repeatedly fired tear gas to disperse rowdy protesters. The controversial Article 24 of the bill seeks to protect police officers from doxing and harassment, and bans filming of cops on duty and sharing their images online with the "intent to harm." Civil liberties groups, journalists, and people who have faced police abuse are concerned that the measure will stymie press freedoms and allow police brutality to go undiscovered and unpunished. “We have to broaden the debate, and by doing that, we say that if there were no police violence, we wouldn’t have to film violent policemen,” Assa Traore, a prominent anti-brutality activist whose brother died in police custody in 2016, told The Associated Press. At least 46,000 people packed the sprawling Republique plaza and surrounding streets carrying red union flags, French tricolor flags and homemade signs denouncing police violence, demanding media freedom or calling for the resignation of French President Emmanuel Macron or his tough-talking interior minister, Gerald Darmanin. The crowd included journalists, journalism students, left-wing activists, migrants rights groups and citizens of varied political stripes expressing anger over what they perceive as hardening police tactics in recent years, especially since France’s yellow vest protest movement against economic hardship emerged in 2018. Violence erupted near the end of the march as small groups of protesters pelted riot police with small rocks and paving stone. The officers retaliated with volleys of tear gas, prompting minor scuffles. What we found most remarkable is that as rioting escalated, the protesters did something they have never done before (to our knowledge): they set fire to the facade of the central bank building in Paris.

UK schools facing bankruptcy during pandemic - Thousands of UK schools are threatened with bankruptcy, staff redundancies and larger class sizes as they are forced to stay open and cope with the COVID-19 pandemic without extra funding. Despite educational settings being a major vector for the rising number of coronavirus infections—accounting for 45 percent of new cases—Boris Johnson’s Conservative government, backed by the trade unions and opposition Labour Party, insist that schools must remain open. This criminally reckless policy, underpinned by the “herd immunity” strategy, has contributed to a death toll of over 70,000. According to the National Association of Headteachers (NAHT), half the schools in the north west England town of Stockport anticipate going into deficit budgets this year, as they struggle with extra costs incurred by the pandemic. Many schools report their annual supply cover budget has been exhausted in just half a year due to staff absences, either from teachers contracting COVID-19 or quarantining at home after contact with positive cases at school. General secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), Geoff Barton, told the Guardian, “Most of a school’s budget is spent on staffing, so the inevitable conclusion of having less money is that they have to cut staffing. This increases class sizes and reduces the capacity to deliver pastoral care and provide additional classroom support for pupils who benefit from that. Unless the government acts, one of the legacies of Covid will be yet another funding crisis in education.” The Guardian reported that one secondary school in the north west incurred extra COVID-19 related expenses to the tune of £339,000. A term’s supply of hand sanitisers cost the unnamed school more than £10,000, bacterial anti-sprays accounted for £3,381, and £4,000 was spent on disposable paper towels. In theory, schools could apply for government reimbursement to cover some extra costs, but only up to July 2020. The school’s headteacher told the Guardian, “I have put in a claim to the Department for Education, but as yet have received diddly squat.” The head of Wales High School in Kiveton, South Yorkshire, Giuseppe Di’Iasio, worked over the summer holidays providing covered areas outside so the school’s year-groups would have room to separate into their “bubbles” for social distancing. “We spent our reserves to fund the building work, which has used up in advance all the capital fund money we will get over the next three years, so other improvements will be put on hold,” Di’Iasio told the Guardian . “It cost £6,000 to re-design the school and put in one-way systems and distancing, and we had to spend £19,000 on catering facilities so we could serve lunch at seven different venues. We had to spend £2,000 on webcams for staff at home to facilitate remote learning, toilet refurbishment cost £3,500, and hygiene costs have been £13,000. We’re looking at spending at least a third of a million pounds out of our £10m budget, but as 80% of our spending is on staff costs, it is actually a sixth of the £2m other spend.”

Brexit: The Barnier Cliff - 12/03/2020 - Yves Smith - Seasoned negotiators will confess that at a certain point in deal-making, the intermediaries for the two sides often wind up shifting their loyalties and start working for the deal more than their principals. One tell is when the representatives start grumbling informally about the clients or their positions.So it’s not surprising that EU member states are getting edgy that Barnier might be giving up too much to seal an agreement, particularly given how pig-headed the UK side has been and continues to be, as we’ll get to shortly, along with the fact that time really is running out. The Financial Times said that there was hope of Boris Johnson meeting with EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen over the weekend to settle the open points….but that sort of session was supposed to have happened weeks ago.The proximate cause for EU worries was a Barnier largely-non-progress report last Friday. Per the Guardian:Michel Barnier will be told on Wednesday that the EU capitals want full sight of any deal with the UK before it is agreed, amid concerns the bloc’s chief Brexit negotiator may concede too much ground in the final days of negotiation.The member states have called on Barnier, who is in London, to address their representatives in Brussels in an early morning video conference to provide a full account of the latest developments.A senior EU diplomat said they had confidence in Barnier as a negotiator but added there was some nervousness following his briefing on Friday where he had told the ambassadors of his “flexibility” over aspects of customs and border controls.Barnier counselled that the British negotiators led by David Frost were yet to reciprocate by agreeing a robust system of dispute settlement, which he admitted could give “rise to concerns about cherrypicking”. France continues to be the self-appointed heavy; recall that Barnier also had to have a chat with the fishing states, and it wasn’t clear if he got anywhere in trying to soften them up. Macron has long been the most vocal about protecting EU and member state interests, but the EU members recognize they have to live with each other, and Macron has yet to live up to any threat to throw France’s weight around. However, France by virtue of geography is understood to have even more at stake in Brexit than other EU nations, so his position might carry a bit more weight than it has until now. On Tuesday, the Belgian prime minister Alexander De Croo joined Macron in a press conference to show EU resolve. Despite Barnier having made noises last week about forward movement, it seems to be inches relative to the size of the gulf. The EU offered to give up 15% to 18% of its fishing rights in UK waters; the UK wanted to keep 80% of the fish, and it’s lowered its ask to 60%. The wee problem, as we’ve mentioned before, that a considerable majority of seafood from UK waters goes to the EU. The famed British fish and chips use Norwegian cod. And no deal means tariffs, rotten fish, and fisherman going bust. From the Financial Times:

Brexit: Stumbling -- Yves Smith -- Just a short note on the state of Brexit. Negotiations continue on Friday but Barnier will have decamped to Brussels, leaving his team in London. Hopes of a deal by the weekend are off. As we’ll see, the press is still playing up the notion that there could be an agreement by the end of the weekend. But by all accounts, there’s still a big gap between the the two sides, and I have yet to see reports of any plans for Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen to meet to try to close the gap.  The reason for the shift to a more downbeat view is that the 27 diplomat session with Barnier on Wednesday, with France leading but apparently not alone in applying pressure to Barnier not to concede too much, has had an impact on the talks. It appears, as has happened a couple of times with Barnier, that he may have gotten out over his skis and offered concessions that he now has reason to think the EU won’t swallow. If you believe this scenario, you have to believe France is influencing the shape of the deal, as opposed to taking a self-assigned role of bad cop, regardless of whether or not anyone wants them to. Or else Barnier really was out over his skis and had gone further than his principals would accept.  Or it may be that the UK side is exaggerating more than a little in trying to depict the EU as acting in bad faith by retrading an offer. Recall that one of the things that came after the Barnier-EU diplomats session on Wednesday was that EU sources told the press that if the UK didn’t remove clauses that would override the Irish Protocol from recently-introduced Taxation Bill, they could kiss a trade pact goodbye. So the UK may be creating an uproar about the EU refining its position, which may or may not be as big a deal as the UK noisemaking would have you believe, to divert attention from their refusal to drop the deal-killing sections of the Taxation Bill.  The Bloomberg account makes clear the whinging is coming entirely from the UK side:  With negotiators working around the clock in London, optimism had been growing for days that an agreement could be struck this weekend. But British officials said the European Union had suddenly turned up with a new set of demands, sending the talks backward. They didn’t say what the demands were and EU officials denied it… One U.K. official said talks had taken a big step backward because the EU had hardened its position in response to the French. Another said that, despite the setback, a breakthrough is still possible in the next few days. Senior figures close to the European side questioned whether the remarks from the U.K. were another case of brinkmanship to pile last-minute pressure on the talks or an effort to disguise the fact that the British themselves are making concessions. One official said that fundamental differences between the two sides have persisted for weeks, but that hadn’t prevented both sides believing a deal was close, while another insisted bloc hadn’t made new proposals.

Britain and EU to resume talks in final push for Brexit trade deal (Reuters) - Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen instructed their negotiators to resume trade talks on Sunday in a last ditch attempt to bridge significant differences. The decision to revive the long-running talks after they stalled on Friday over three of the thorniest issues suggests both sides believe there is still some hope they can secure a deal governing almost $1 trillion of trade a year. But it was not clear whether either camp was ready to shift its position enough to allow the breakthrough that has proved elusive since Britain left the EU on Jan. 31 and entered a transition period that runs until the end of the year. In a joint statement, the two leaders said that while there were serious differences, “we agreed that a further effort should be undertaken by our negotiating teams to assess whether they can be resolved”. “No agreement is feasible if these issues are not resolved,” they said after speaking for more than an hour on Saturday. “We are therefore instructing our chief negotiators to reconvene tomorrow in Brussels. We will speak again on Monday evening.” After months of negotiations, there has barely been any movement on three areas of disagreement - fisheries, ensuring fair competition guarantees and ways to solve future disputes. Sources from both sides said that French demands over fishing rights in British waters remained a key issue, and some in Johnson’s Conservative Party suggested that EU officials had to convince French President Emmanuel Macron to back a deal. Two EU officials said the talks would resume where they had left off. One described the suspension and then resumption of talks as theatrics. “Each side needs a bit of drama to be able to sell this.” Johnson, a figurehead for Britain’s campaign to leave the EU, must be able to convince Brexit supporters that he has secured a clean break, reclaiming what he called during last year’s election campaign the country’s sovereignty.