Fed’s reverse repo program sees demand soar to just under $1 trillion overnight - Overnight demand for the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program surged to a record $991.9 billion on Wednesday, the last day of the year’s first half.A total of 90 counterparties, which can include banks, U.S. housing giants Fannie Mae FNMA, and Freddie Mac, and money-market funds, tapped the increasingly popular Fed program, which essentially serves as short-term parking for hordes of cash. Since mid-June, the program began paying users a modest 5 basis points, or 0.05%, in interest. Before that they were paid zero interest to hold risk-free assets, like Treasurys and agency mortgage-backed securities MBB,, overnight.The facility had been met with growing demand since April, as firms look for ways to temporarily invest cash on hand as trillions worth of fiscal and monetary stimulus slosh through the economy.Earlier in June, demand for the facility hit $755.8 billion but continued to climb toward the $1 trillion mark anticipated by several analysts watching the sector closely.“Essentially, the Fed is keen to reduce cash balances in the banking system to avoid any overnight rate from going negative,” wrote Gordon Shannon, a portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, in emailed commentary this week. “The repo operations soak up some of the excess liquidity currently overwhelming US money market funds, which have been flooded with cash this year sending their total holdings above $4trln.”
Fed's Bullard warns inflation could be higher than expected in 2022 - A recent burst of inflation could prove more long-lasting than expected as the surging U.S. economy faces widespread bottlenecks that have severely disrupted the global supply chain, a Federal Reserve official said on Thursday. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard predicted that prices for most goods and services will continue to climb in 2021 and 2022 after companies were thrown off by the speed of the economic recovery from the pandemic and the wave of pent-up demand among consumers who are flush with cash. "Those things I don't think are as easy to fix as some people think," Bullard said during an interview with FOX Business' Maria Bartiromo. "We're going to see continuing price pressure well into 2022." Bullard's comments come as policymakers at the U.S. central bank grapple with how to handle conflicting economic data: While inflation is on the rise – in May, the government reported that consumer prices for goods and services rose 5% in May from a year prior, the fastest year-over-year jump since 2008 – job growth has been mostly lackluster. There are still some 9.3 million Americans out of work. During their two-day, policy-setting meeting in June, Fed officials unanimously voted to hold interest rates near zero, where they have sat since March 2020, and committed to keep purchasing $120 billion in bonds each month. But updated economic projections released by the Fed showed that officials expect to raise rates twice, to about 0.6%, by late 2023, in part due to heightened expectations for inflation. "The risk here for us policymakers is that there's still upside risk to inflation," Bullard said. "Even though we're going to have higher inflation this year, it could even be higher than we anticipated, and it could be higher than we anticipated next year. We have to be ready for that situation." The Fed gave no signs in June that it was imminently considering scaling back its aggressive bond-buying program, even though policymakers raised headline inflation expectations to 3.4% for 2021 – a full point higher than the March forecast. But Bullard suggested on Thursday that it was time for officials to "get moving" on the tapering discussion.
IMF lifts US growth outlook for this year to 7%, says Fed may need to hike rates earlier than it expects - The International Monetary Fund has lifted its outlook for US economic growth to 7% for this year, and believes the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the end of 2022, as recovery takes root. The IMF had previously anticipated an annual growth rate of 4.6% for this year. Should the US economy indeed by 7% in 2021 - as both the Fed and now the IMF expect - this would be the fastest expansion since 1984. Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF managing director, said the improved outlook was based on the American Jobs and Families plans being implemented in line with the outlines presented by the Biden administration, as they appear likely to improve living and income standards in the long term. "We believe that these two packages will add to near-term demand, raising GDP by a cumulative 5¼ percent over 2022-24. And-perhaps more importantly-our assessment is that GDP will be 1 percent higher even after 10 years, thanks to the significant, positive effects on labor force participation and productivity introduced by these two plans." she said in a report released on Thursday.Biden's infrastructure plan was also referenced in the IMF's assessment. The bipartisan program allocates $1.2 trillion over the next five years to improving things such as roads, broadband access and education. The IMF also said it expected US interest rates to rise more quickly than the Fed currently anticipates. "Presuming staff's baseline outlook and fiscal policy assumptions are realized, policy rates would likely need to start rising in late-2022 or early-2023," the IMF said. At its mid-June meeting, the Fed said it expected to raise interest rates by 2023. Several individual policymakers have however since said they expect monetary policy to tighten sooner than this. The Fed's more hawkish outlook initially fueled some concern among investors, particularly relating to the implications for the central bank's highly accommodative monetary policy stance. Stocks wavered for a few weeks, but have since recovered and hit successive record highs in the last week. Government bond yields have fallen to around six-month lows, highlighting that investors trust the Fed's ability to target inflation without derailing the economy. Both the IMF and the Fed expect inflation to be transitory and short-term, rather than weigh on markets for a prolonged period of time.
Business Cycle Indicators as of June 27 - Menzie Chinn - Personal income and consumption for May were released last week, as well as the April manufacturing and trade industry sales figure. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from May release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 6/27 for June nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (6/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.As suggested by retail sales ex. food (discussed in this post), manufacturing and trade industry sales pulled back, as did consumption, albeit in both cases moderately. Here’s an updated version of the graph from that post. Figure 2: Retail sales excluding food services in 1982-84$ (teal), manufacturing and trade sales in 2012$ (black), and consumption in 2012$ (red), all in logs, 2020M02=0. Retail sales ex-food deflated using CPI-all. Source: Census, BEA, BLS, St. Louis Fed via FRED, and author’s calculations.The consensus (Bloomberg) is for continued increase in nonfarm payroll employment in the June release (July 2nd), at 675,000. Assuming no revision to the May level, employment will still be 4.7% below peak levels (in log terms).Nowcasts for Q2: Atlanta GDPNow at 8.3% (6/25), NY Fed at 3.4% (6/25), and IHS-Markit at 8.1% (6/25).
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. \The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average. This data is as of June 27th. The seven day average is down 23.7% from the same day in 2019 (76.3% of 2019). (Dashed line) The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through June 26, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining is picking up again, and was up slightly in US (7-day average compared to 2019). Florida and Texas are above 2019 levels. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through June 24th. Movie ticket sales were at $70 million last week, down about 79% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Occupancy is now above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid. This data is through June 19th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 10% compared to same week in 2019). Note: Occupancy was up year-over-year, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. However, the 4-week average occupancy is still down from normal levels. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of June 18th, gasoline supplied was down slightly compared to the same week in 2019 (about 99.7% of the same week in 2019). Four weeks ago was the only week this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through June 26th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 96% of the January 2020 level and moving up. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources. He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
GDP Forecasts from CBO and IMF - Menzie Chinn - CBO released an Update to its Budget and Economic Outlook, while the IMF released a mission concluding statement for its Article IV review of the United States. Here are the implied GDP levels for year-end 2021. Figure 1: GDP as reported (black), Atlanta Fed nowcast (thin black line to 2021Q2), Administration (red square), Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue triangle), FT-IGM (pink circle), CBO as projected in June (orange *), IMF Article IV (green inverted triangle), and potential GDP as estimated by CBO in February 2021 (gray line). NBER recession dates assuming trough at 2020Q2. Dates indicated denote when the forecasts were “locked down”. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed as of 6/25, OMB FY’22 Budget, Philadelphia Fed SPF (May), and FT-IGM survey (June), CBO (February, July), IMF (July), and author’s calculations. The IMF forecasts 8% q/q growth, while CBO projects 7.4% (compare to 3.7% in February). Using the CBO’s February estimate of potential GDP and the CBO’s July projection, the output gap at year’s end will be about 2%; using the IMF’s estimate of output, it’ll be about 2.6%. There is no reason why either the CBO’s or IMF’s estimates of potential as of today will be the same as what CBO estimated in February. In fact, the CBO notes: As the pandemic eases and demand for consumer services surges, real (inflation-adjusted) GDP is projected to increase by 7.4 percent and surpass its potential (maximum sustainable) level by the end of 2021. That statement seems to indicate that its current estimate of potential GDP is considerably higher than what it indicated in the February report. That would be consistent with assessments that the extent of scarring in the business sector has been less profound than previously feared.
The Fed: Why Federal Spending Soared In 2020 But State And Local Spending Flatlined --In the wake of the Covid Recession and the drive to pour ever larger amounts of “stimulus” into the US economy, the Federal Government in 2020 spent more than double—as a percentage of all government spending—of what all state and local governments spent in 2020, combined.By the end of 2020, the US’s federal government was spending 68 percent of all government spending in America, while state and local governments spent only 31 percent of all government spending.More specifically, federal expenditures reached 6.8 trillion for the year while state and local spending reached “only” 2.9 trillion.This was a sizable change from the decade leading up to 2020 when the federal government’s share of all government spending tended to hover around 60 percent, while state and local spending remained close to 40 percent.The sudden spike to 68 percent pushed the federal share up to the highest it’s been since the 1960s and the Vietnam War.Moreover, from 2019 to 2020, growth in state and local spending nearly flatlined, dropping to 0.38 percent growth over the previous year. That’s the lowest growth rate in state and local spending since 2011 in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Yet, at the same time, federal spending increased by 25 percent. This was the largest year-over-year increase in federal spending since the Korean War.Yet, these numbers actually understate the extent to which federal spending dominates all government spending in America. This is because a lot of state and local spending is really federal spending, thanks to federal grants.As noted by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in 2018,Federal grants to state and local governments help finance critical programs and services across the country. These grants provide roughly 31 percent of state budgets and 23 percent of state and local budgets combined, according to the most recent data.The share of state spending composed of federal grants varies from state to state with the largest share at 41.9 percent in Michigan, and the smallest in Hawaii at 17.5. Of course, this percentage is driven both by total state spending and by the total amount of federal grants. States that tax a lot and spend a lot in general (e.g., Hawaii, Massachusetts) tend to have a small share of federal spending within their state budgets. In any case, this is a continuation of a well-established trend. In fiscal year 2011, federal grants accounted for about 25 percent of state and local spending.
Inflation's The Nail In the Coffin Of Biden's Spending Plans – Stephen Moore - Inflation is accelerating -- every consumer in the country feels it every day. If there is any economic sense left in Washington, the rising inflation threat should grind President Biden's big-government spending plans to a halt. Federal Reserve officials have called inflation “transitory,” but what if they are wrong? The public is clearly worried. According to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released this week, 85 percent of Americans are concerned about inflation. For good reason. Last month, the Consumer Price Index rose at its fastest level since 2008.At the same time, the Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale costs, rose at its most rapid rate in recorded history. Rising producer prices translate into higher consumer prices. This inflation tax could dramatically slow the vaccine-induced economic recovery and make ordinary Americans poorer. At its recent meeting this month, the Fed announced that it would accelerate its expected interest rate hike timeline and discuss tapering its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. We hope they do. But another factor that would inflame inflation is adding to the heavy U.S. debt loads that the Fed's bond purchasing has facilitated. It’s Economics 101 that more money creation means the dollars in our wallets and bank accounts are worth less.Yes, monetary policy is the Fed’s domain, but Congress can make the Fed’s job of heading off even steeper inflation easier by putting the kibosh on Biden's massive deficit spending plans. Biden has proposed $4 trillion in "once-in-a-generation investments" (in addition to the $1.9 trillion Covid relief package that passed in March). This week's bipartisan infrastructure bill “compromise” still spends way too much money on green energy, high-speed rail projects, electric vehicle subsidies, and the like. Even liberal economists like Larry Summers have warned that Biden's spending blowout can overheat the economy and "set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation, with consequences for the value of the dollar and financial stability." Summers argues, "the primary risk to the U.S. economy is overheating — and inflation." Biden's spending would fan the flames.
McConnell undecided on bipartisan infrastructure plan - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Monday that he hasn’t yet made a decision on whether to support an infrastructure deal between President Biden and a bipartisan group of senators, but that he has concerns about how it’s being paid for. McConnell said during a press conference in Louisville, Ky., that he and other Republicans want to see a score from the Congressional Budget Office to know whether the ways being touted to pay for the bill by the bipartisan group will actually cover the cost of their five-year $973 billion spending plan. Asked by a reporter whether he would support the package, McConnell said, “I haven’t decided yet.” “But I’ve certainly encouraged our members to talk to the Democrats,” he said. “We need to get a score, so we need to see whether the proposal is credibly paid for.” McConnell pointed out that disputes over the ways to pay for the plan have undermined past efforts to pass infrastructure investment legislation. “It’s been challenging to figure out exactly how we can pay for it in a way that’s comforting to both sides,” he said. The GOP leader emphasized that Democratic leaders need to back away from any pledge to rank-and-file members that they would pass a scaled-down bipartisan infrastructure bill and a larger budget reconciliation bill that would include Biden’s more partisan priorities in tandem. “I think it’s fair to say I’d like to see us get there and I do think the only we can get there is to delink the two issues, they are really separate issues,” McConnell said. His comments followed a statement he released earlier in the day calling on Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to “walk-back their threats that they will refuse to send the president a bipartisan infrastructure bill unless they also separately pass trillions of dollars for unrelated tax hikes, wasteful spending, and Green New Deal socialism.” McConnell’s call for Schumer and Pelosi to say they will not directly tie a bipartisan infrastructure deal to the passage of a larger budget reconciliation bill is a new tactic.
Bernie Sanders to Biden and Manchin: 'No reconciliation bill, no deal' - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is warning President Biden and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) that he will not support a bipartisan infrastructure bill that does not include a provision for reconciliation. "Let me be clear: There will not be a bipartisan infrastructure deal without a reconciliation bill that substantially improves the lives of working families and combats the existential threat of climate change," Sanders said in a tweet on Sunday afternoon. "No reconciliation bill, no deal. We need transformative change NOW." The demand from Sanders comes a day after Biden walked back remarks on Thursday suggesting he would only support signing a bipartisan bill if a larger reconciliation package was also passed. "At a press conference after announcing the bipartisan agreement, I indicated that I would refuse to sign the infrastructure bill if it was sent to me without my Families Plan and other priorities, including clean energy," Biden in a statement on Saturday afternoon before saying his comments "also created the impression that I was issuing a veto threat on the very plan I had just agreed to, which was certainly not my intent." On Sunday morning, several Republican senators said they accepted Biden's clarification and indicated they trusted the president to stick to his word. “I recognize that he and his Democratic colleagues want more than that, they want other legislation as well," Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said. "And we Republicans are saying absolutely no, we will not support a bill which is to be passed with a massive tax increase, and at the same time trillions of dollars in new spending. That is not something we will support." Manchin, a moderate who represents a critical swing vote within the Democratic caucus and helped broker the deal between the White House and Senate Democrats, defended his position in Congress on Sunday. “It’s the way I’ve basically been in public life, and I’m not changing. I’m sorry that this 50/50 worked out and people were unhappy with it, but it is what it is. And if they think that I’m going to change and be something that I’m not, I won’t. And I’ve been very clear,” Manchin said.
White House disputes criticism that climate left out of bipartisan infrastructure deal - The White House on Monday pushed back against critics who say a bipartisan infrastructure deal endorsed by President Biden leaves out bold provisions to address climate change. “I would dispute the notion that it doesn’t do anything for climate, which some are arguing,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, addressing a protest organized by the Sunrise Movement outside the White House. Sunrise Movement protesters outside the White House demanded “no climate, no deal” and the protest was intended to call for an infrastructure package that invests in ways to combat the climate crisis. Democratic Reps. Jamaal Bowman (N.Y.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) spoke at the protest. Activists held signs reading, “Biden you coward fight for us” and “for the water we drink, for the places we call home, and for the people we love.” Psaki mentioned that the deal includes investments in addressing legacy pollution, clean energy transmission, and focuses on electric vehicle buses. “Whether or not everyone is aware of all those specifics, that’s incumbent on us to keep conveying that, communicating it, listening, and making sure people understand that this is a down payment and the president will continue to advocate for, press for, work for, even more on climate as he will in the reconciliation bill in the process moving forward,” she said. Progressives have expressed concerns that their priorities like climate change could be left now that Biden and Democratic leadership are pursuing a two-track system to pass the bipartisan infrastructure deal and a separate bill through budget reconciliation rules on Democratic votes alone. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said on Sunday that he will not support the bipartisan infrastructure bill without a reconciliation bill. “Let me be clear: There will not be a bipartisan infrastructure deal without a reconciliation bill that substantially improves the lives of working families and combats the existential threat of climate change,” Sanders said in a tweet.
Biden, Pelosi on collision course -President Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) are on a collision course, at least at the moment, as they race to realize their sweeping infrastructure agenda heading into next year's midterm elections. The two Democratic heavyweights face identical pressures, as both are under enormous strain from their party’s liberal base to make sure a big social spending agenda isn’t undercut or even torpedoed by work on a bipartisan infrastructure bill. But there are also subtly different motivations for Biden, a centrist who is not up for reelection until 2024 and vowed to break Washington’s fever by working with Republicans, and Pelosi, the veteran liberal leader with a narrow House majority dominated by progressive voices. She and her caucus are facing headwinds in next year’s midterms, historically a losing proposition for a House majority in the president’s party. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) said that he would “never underestimate Nancy Pelosi’s ability to get things done” but acknowledged that Democrats are going to have to manage a “balancing act” between their competing crosscurrents. “This isn’t our first rodeo ... we’ve never seen any of these go from point A to point B to point C without hiccups, bumps. There will be more twists and turns,” Warner, a member of the Senate’s bipartisan group, said during an interview with MSNBC on Monday. Biden, after appearing to hitch a nascent bipartisan infrastructure deal to the broader package of Democratic priorities, walked back that linkage on Saturday, saying he won't withhold his signature on the first while awaiting Senate action on the second. Pelosi, on the other hand, has made plain her intention to delay House consideration of a bipartisan infrastructure bill until the Senate has passed the second package — a grab bag of health, social and climate programs — by a process known as reconciliation, which nullifies the Republicans' filibuster powers. Pelosi’s strategy, assuming she sticks to it, would leave the bipartisan deal in limbo, likely for months, including a long August recess when Republicans would certainly launch attacks that Democrats were obstructing a popular public works package.
McConnell to Schumer, Pelosi: Don't hold bipartisan bill 'hostage' -Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Monday demanded that Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) de-link a bipartisan infrastructure deal from a sweeping Democratic-only bill. McConnell’s statement is the first he’s made since President Biden walked back his pledge that he wouldn’t sign the bipartisan deal if it was the only thing that came to his desk, saying over the weekend that the veto threat wasn’t his “intent.” But McConnell, in his statement, argued that without a similar de-linking of the two parts of the Democratic infrastructure plan by congressional leadership that Biden’s remarks would be a “hollow gesture,” in the latest sign that the bipartisan deal isn’t yet back on firm footing. “Unless Leader Schumer and Speaker Pelosi walk-back their threats that they will refuse to send the president a bipartisan infrastructure bill unless they also separately pass trillions of dollars for unrelated tax hikes, wasteful spending, and Green New Deal socialism, then President Biden’s walk-back of his veto threat would be a hollow gesture,” McConnell said in a statement. “The President cannot let congressional Democrats hold a bipartisan bill hostage over a separate and partisan process,” he added. McConnell's rhetoric was immediately picked up by other Republicans, who are hoping to squeeze Democrats on their infrastructure strategy. "Joe Biden reversed his threat to veto a bipartisan infrastructure bill if it isn’t accompanied by a $6 trillion socialist boondoggle. Will Speaker Pelosi do the same?" the National Republican Campaign Committee, the House GOP's campaign arm, asked in an email blast to reporters on Monday. Democrats are pursuing a two-track infrastructure plan: On one track is the bipartisan deal that would cost approximately $1.2 trillion over eight years with more than $570 billion in new spending. On the second track is a sweeping multitrillion-dollar bill that Democrats plan to use under reconciliation, which allows them to bypass the 60-vote legislative filibuster. To unlock that option, Democrats will need all 50 members of their Senate caucus united so they can move without Republicans. McConnell said during a separate press conference on Monday that there was "bipartisan support for a significant infrastructure package" and that he would "like to see us get there" but Democratic leaders had to agree to de-link the two plans. "I appreciate the president saying that he's willing to deal with infrastructure separately but he doesn't control the Congress. And the speaker and the majority leader of the Senate will determine the order," McConnell said. McConnell, pointing back to negotiations Biden had with Republican senators, added that "there was no agreement" that the bipartisan plan be linked to a Democratic-only bill. Schumer has said the Senate will vote on the bipartisan bill and a budget resolution that greenlights and includes the instructions for a second, larger Democratic-only bill in July. The Senate would still need to pass the sweeping multitrillion-dollar bill, which could get pushed into the fall.
Green groups shift energy to reconciliation package - Environmental advocates are shifting their focus to a multi-trillion, Democrat-led spending package after seeing that a smaller bipartisan infrastructure deal is unlikely to include many of their priorities. The bipartisan agreement is expected to include some scaled-down versions of President Biden’s climate proposals, but activists are optimistic that they can achieve many of their goals through a Democrat-only measure that is poised to advance alongside the smaller $1.2 trillion package. “Our eyes are on the prize,” Ben Beachy, director of the Sierra Club's living economy program, told The Hill on Thursday. “We’re fighting for a big bold infrastructure package, and the path for that, as confirmed today, is the reconciliation path, and that is certainly our focus,” he said. During weeks of bipartisan negotiations, advocates have stressed that they see infrastructure as crucial to getting key climate provisions across the finish line. That bipartisan deal announced on Thursday is slated to include just $15 billion for electric vehicles and transit, compared with Biden’s initial goal of $174 billion. It also appears to omit other Biden proposals, such as a push for energy efficient building upgrades and a clean electricity standard, which would make power providers get all of their energy from clean sources by 2035. Biden said, however, that he also wants to pursue a separate bill to be passed through budget reconciliation, a process that would allow Democrats to sidestep a GOP filibuster and pass the measure with a simple majority. That measure is more likely to have Democratic priorities on climate, especially as a large group of senators in the party have pledged not to vote for it unless there are major climate provisions. The 50-50 split in the Senate means all 50 members of the Democratic caucus would have to be on board to pass a reconciliation package. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), a crucial swing vote, called reconciliation “inevitable,” and Biden spoke with moderate Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) about a path forward on Friday. Elizabeth Gore, senior vice president for political affairs at the Environmental Defense Fund, said advocates will have a role to play in convincing Manchin and Sinema that strong climate action is in their best interest. “Both of those senators are concerned about climate and they're committed to finding solutions... and they have unique constituencies and states. And as advocates, our job is to ensure, first of all, that they see a transition to a clean energy economy as an opportunity...and that they see it as a political winner," Gore said. "We've really tried to tie specific policies back to the impact for jobs and communities and the economy back in their...home state,” she added. "This isn't about brow-beating them into supporting a policy that goes against their interest. It's demonstrating and advocating that climate policy and this clean energy transition is good for their state."
A third infrastructure bill cruises into Dems’ ‘two-track’ traffic jam - House Democrats this week are taking an early victory lap for their massive infrastructure bill that would spend hundreds of billions on roads, bridges, transit and rail.No, not the one you're thinking of. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's caucus is preparing to pass a $715 billion transportation package this week — perhaps even with a handful of Republicans — that would spend big on areas that are also centerpieces of President Joe Biden’s infrastructure push.“It’s a strong job-creating package that seizes the once-in-a-century opportunity to rebuild America’s infrastructure,” Pelosi said at a press conference to tout the bill, flanked by committee chairs.The bill comes before Congress every few years for these programs to be renewed, and so far has proceeded separately from Biden's high-profile infrastructure talks. Though it's not surprising that it's being sucked up into the broader fray, where the legislative highway goes next is anybody's guess. As top Democrats pitch a dual-track approach to infrastructure — a bipartisan deal alongside a monster party-line plan that goes beyond just roads and bridges — some Democrats are arguing that the transportation bill could present a new, third lane.Pieces of the bill set to pass the House Thursday might have a better shot at becoming law as the infrastructure drama wobbles forward, some Democrats say, given that it comes with a Sept. 30 deadline to extend key surface transportation programs. Its emergence as an option marks the latest twist in months of convoluted talks about what a narrowly divided Congress can achieve on one of the White House’s top legislative priorities, and presents party leaders a way to maintain the aggressive July timeline they've been promising. House Transportation Committee Chair Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), who authored the bill, said Wednesday that he’s personally urged Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to merge major parts of his measure, along with existing Senate work on a similar bill, into the Biden-endorsed bipartisan infrastructure deal. That agreement is still more of an outline than a formal piece of legislation, DeFazio noted.
House passes $715B transportation, water bill amid bipartisan infrastructure push -The Democratic-controlled House voted on Thursday to approve a $715 billion transportation and water infrastructure bill, a five-year initiative focused on rebuilding the nation's roads, rail, public transit and water systems. The INVEST in America Act passed mostly along party lines at 221-201, with two Republicans joining Democrats to support the bill. Although President Biden and a bipartisan group of senators struck a deal recently for a $973 billion infrastructure bill, they have yet to turn the framework into actual legislation. House Democrats are hoping to include many of their bill's provisions when lawmakers begin broader infrastructure negotiations later this summer."I'm suggesting that substantial amounts of the policy in our bill should be negotiated – by the White House and the Senate and the House – to be part of that bipartisan proposal," Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., the primary author of the bill, told reporters this week. The proposal would allocate billions to "core" infrastructure projects. Here's how the money would breakdown:
- $343 billion for roads, bridges and safety
- $109 billion for transit
- $95 billion for passenger and freight rail
- $117 billion for drinking water infrastructure and assistance
- $51.25 billion for wastewater infrastructure
Still, the bill does not include any new funding efforts – something that House Republicans criticized. They argued the proposal would add to the already record-high deficit and exacerbate a recent surge in the price of goods and services. The $973B bipartisan compromise endorsed by Biden and a group of at least 10 senators would be paid for from a variety of sources, including reducing the IRS tax gap by beefing up enforcement, redirecting unused federal unemployment money from the 26 states that are prematurely ending the relief program and repurposing other COVID-relief measures. The measure includes $109 billion for roads and bridges, $66 billion for rails including Amtrak, $49 billion for public transit, $65 billion for broadband infrastructure and $75 billion for power, including grid authority, in addition to other "core" infrastructure projects. Biden has also pledged to fight for a second, larger package that would be passed using a procedural tool known as budget reconciliation, allowing Democrats to circumvent a Republican filibuster.
House passes $715 billion transportation and water infrastructure bill - The House of Representatives voted on Thursday to approve a $715 billion transportation and water infrastructure bill focused on improving and repairing roads, bridges, transit and rail, and ensuring clean drinking water.The vote was 221-201 with two Republicans voting with Democrats in favor.House Democrats say the bill -- known as the INVEST in America Act -- will deliver on key priorities in President Joe Biden's American Jobs Plan, and they hope the legislative text can be used to negotiate with the Senate and the White House to determine what specific policy proposals can be included as part of the recently announced bipartisan infrastructure framework.Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon, the lead sponsor of the INVEST Act and chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, said at a news conference on Wednesday, "I'm suggesting that substantial amounts of the policy in our bill should be negotiated by the White House, and the Senate and the House to be part of that bipartisan proposal."The framework deal reached between Biden and a bipartisan group of senators last week outlines top-line spending numbers for a variety of priorities, but many other details of the plan remain unclear."The Senate bipartisan deal is an outline," DeFazio said. "There's no policy attached to their proposal. You have to have policy to do a bill."The INVEST in America Act authorizes $343 billion for roads, bridges and safety measures, $109 billion for transit, $95 billion for passenger and freight rail, $117 billion for drinking water infrastructure resources and roughly $51 billion for wastewater infrastructure, according to a fact sheet on the bill.House Speaker Nancy Pelosi praised the bill on Wednesday, calling it "a strong jobs-creating package that seizes a once in a century opportunity to rebuild America's infrastructure."The legislation is an authorization measure, not an appropriations bill, and it does not include a pay-for mechanism as it came out of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and that is not part of the committee's jurisdiction. When asked about how to address funding, DeFazio told reporters earlier this week, "this is always a sticking point," but said that the Ways and Means committee, which is the chief tax-writing committee in the House, "has held a number of hearings and there are members of that committee that have a multiplicity of ideas." DeFazio added, "I fully expect, in concert with the Biden administration, that they will put forward proposals after we begin to meld the policy and the numbers together on the Senate side." Democratic congressional leaders have been pursuing a dual track approach to infrastructure, pushing for a bipartisan infrastructure proposal, while at the same time setting the stage for the Senate to pass a broader package with only Democratic votes through reconciliation that could include any priorities left out of a bipartisan deal. The approach has led to tension on Capitol Hill, however, and the future of the bipartisan deal is still uncertain.
Ralph Nader: Leaves Must be Canceled. All Hands on the Congressional Deck. --Readers of the Washington Post this past Sunday, many of whom work at least a 40-hour week with short vacations, were informed by reporter Paul Kane about the large number of recess days the Senate and the House are taking this summer. In the midst of a huge backlog of critical legislation – as with the multi-trillion-dollar public and human infrastructure bills and other responsibilities deferred under prior periods of Republican control – these recess periods constitute reckless abandon and endangerment to the country. Here are Mr. Kane’s words: “When the Senate finishes up Thursday [June 24th, 2021], the chamber will shut down until July 12 for an unusually long Independence Day recess. After returning for four weeks, the Senate is supposed to break by Aug. 6 for more than four weeks of the beloved August recess. That’s a nearly 75-day run from late June through Labor Day in which current planning would have senators here voting about 16 days.” “The original House schedule is even more impractical. When members of the House leave town July 1, they are slated to be in session just two of the next 11 weeks.” “Yes, you read that right. From July 2 through Sept. 19, the House is only in session for nine days.” It gets worse. As with other long absences throughout the year, all these recesses come with full pay and with bipartisan concurrence. But there is no agreement on Biden’s big-ticket legislative initiatives that should be dealt with, with meticulous detail to assure that whatever passes comes with rigorous oversight by adequate overseers for preventing waste, fraud, and abuse in the Executive Branch departments and agencies. That takes Congressional work. Even when Congress is in session, Senators and Representatives usually work a three-day week – Tuesdays to Thursdays – with time to rush to nearby campaign offices and dial for campaign dollars.
The Biden administration advances a law to protect patients from surprise medical bills. - Biden administration took its first steps Thursday toward finalizing the details of a ban on surprise medical bills thatCongress passed and President Donald J. Trump signed into law last winter. Some experts see the policy as the most important consumer protection legislation regarding health care to come out of Washington in more than a decade.Surprise medical bills can arise when a doctor or other provider who isn’t in a patient’s insurance network becomes unexpectedly involved in a patient’s care. Patients may go to a hospital in their network, for example, but get treatment from emergency room physicians or anesthesiologists who are not — and who then send patients big bills directly. Millions of Americans get such bills each year, and the pandemic highlighted the scope of the problem. Those hospitalized with Covid-19 sometimes found themselves facing thousands of dollars in medical debt from bills they could never have prevented. One Covid patient in Philadelphia ended up with a $52,112 bill for an air ambulance transfer between hospitals while she was unconscious and on a ventilator. A woman in Texas was charged $4,000 by out-of-network doctors who cared for her during a 10-day hospitalization.The new law, which goes into effect in 2022, would have prevented bills like those. The law was created in late 2020, but Congress gave regulators about a year to write more specific rules about how the policy will work. On Thursday, federal officials began completing the particulars of how that legislative plan will translate to action, by publishing the first major regulationinterpreting it. The law establishes a system for calculating a benchmark payment and a way for insurers and health providers to appeal to a neutral arbiter when they feel that amount is not appropriate.“This law represents the single greatest patient protection since Obamacare,” said Adam Buckalew, who worked as a Republican staff member on the committees that wrote the bill in both the House and the Senate. “And it’s solidly bipartisan,” he added. Mr. Buckalew, now a consultant, is advising some health insurance groups interested in the details of the regulation.
Biden Administration Issues Interim Rule Barring Surprise Billing - Yves Smith -CMS has released an interim rule, based on the No Surprises Act, that puts the kibosh on most so-called surprise billing. Bear in mind that this sneaky practice, greatly accelerated by private equity buying up outsourced hospital practices, like ER doctors, afflicts members of employer and individual plans.Even though the proposed rule is subject to the usual 60 day comment period, public opinion is so opposed to balance billing that none of the commentary I have seen thus far expects the rule to change much prior to its planned effective date, in January 2022.First, from Modern Healthcare:The Biden administration on Thursday unveiled the first in a series of rules aimed at banning surprise billing.The interim final rule bars surprise billing for emergency services and high out-of-network cost-sharing for emergency and non-emergency services. It also prohibits out-of-network charges for ancillary services like those provided by anesthesiologists or assistant surgeons, as well as other out-of-network charges without advance notice….Under the new rule, health plans that cover emergency services cannot use prior authorization for those services and must pay for them regardless of whether the clinician is an in-network provider or emergency facility. Likewise, insurers can’t charge their enrollees higher out-of-pocket costs for emergency services delivered by an out-of-network provider. They also have to count beneficiaries’ cost-sharing for those emergency services toward their in-network deductible and out-of-pocket maximums.Plans will have to calculate consumers’ out-of-pocket expenses based on a state’s all-payer model agreement or other applicable state law in most cases. As the Wall Street Journal put it:The rule seeks to implement key parts of the legislation protecting patients from being billed by out-of-network doctors who provide treatment at in-network hospitals, as well as protecting them from surprise bills for both emergency and nonemergency care…Out-of-network charges have added to medical debt and rising out-of-pocket payments for consumers: An April 2021 study in the journal Health Affairs found that patients receiving a surprise out-of-network bill for emergency physician care paid more than 10 times as much as in-network emergency patients paid out-of-pocket.The interim final rule is expansive. Emergency services, regardless of where they are provided, would have to be billed at lower, in-network rates without requirements for prior authorization.The rule also bans higher out-of-network cost-sharing, such as copayments, from patients for treatment they receive either in an emergency or nonemergency situation. Under the rule, any coinsurance or deductible can’t be higher than if such services were provided by an in-network doctor…
Biden's Medicare plan spells trouble for the whole system -The administration recently proposed lowering Medicare’s eligibility age, and Senate Democrats are apparently eager to include the reform in their forthcoming $6 trillion reconciliation bill. The policy seems straightforward: take a popular program and expand it so that people as young as 60 can enroll. But, as with many of Biden’s proposals, the devil is in the details. To begin, President Biden’s proposal could be charitably described as undeveloped. There are only a handful of sentences devoted to the idea in the president’s budget and precious few details from the administration about how the plan would work. Indeed, there are a myriad of questions that the administration and congressional Democrats who support the idea have not yet answered. How would lowering Medicare’s eligibility age to 60 affect those who currently receive coverage through Medicaid or the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) exchanges? Would late-enrollment penalties apply to those who defer coverage until the current eligibility age of 65? Would reimbursement rates to providers differ for the new population? And would the newly eligible face the same premium requirements, including income-related premiums, that the current Medicare population pays? We analyzed the impacts of a proposal like Biden’s and found that lowering the Medicare eligibility age to 60 would move millions of Americans from their private plans to government coverage, increase the federal deficit, and accelerate the insolvency date of Medicare’s Health Insurance Trust Fund. To compensate, policymakers would either be required to increase taxes or plug the hole with general revenues, severing the tie between Medicare’s hospital benefit and the exclusive payroll taxes that finance it. The vast majority of those who would become eligible for Medicare already have insurance. In fact, only about 10 percent of the early-eligible population currently lacks coverage. About half have existing employer-sponsored coverage. And almost a quarter of the newly Medicare-eligible under Biden’s proposal already have government coverage through, for example, state Medicaid programs or the Affordable Care Act’s marketplace plans. We estimate the expansion would increase the ten-year deficit by $394 billion with about 14 million Americans enrolling in at least Medicare Part A (which provides coverage for hospitalizations). The impact on Medicare spending would be even larger — it would rise by almost $1 trillion over the next ten years. The increase in Part A spending would hasten the insolvency date of Medicare’s Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund without corresponding offsets. Under the current baseline, the Congressional Budget Office projects the HI trust fund will be insolvent in 2026. We estimate that, absent alternative financing options, lowering the Medicare eligibility age to 60 in 2022 would accelerate the insolvency date to 2024.
White House defends military strikes on Iraq-Syria border --The White House on Monday defended the Biden administration’s weekend military airstrikes against Iran-backed militia groups as several lawmakers in his own party questioned the commander in chief’s war powers. “The defense of the United States and our interests is our domestic justification for these strikes,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters during the daily press briefing. President Biden “takes legal authority and justification for military action quite seriously. And certainly we consult our legal teams to ensure we have that justification. And we certainly feel confident we do,” she added. The U.S. military on Sunday conducted airstrikes on facilities along the Iraq-Syria border used by Iran-backed militia groups Kata'ib Hezbollah (KH) and Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS). Psaki said the strikes were directed at facilities used by the militias for weapon storage, command logistics and operating unmanned aerial vehicles used in attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq. The strikes mark the second time Biden has hit such militias, the first being in March, in response to attacks targeting American troops in Iraq. The attacks, most with rockets and some with drones, have been commonplace since Washington, under the Trump administration, ordered the drone strike attack that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani last year, further escalating tensions in the region. Democrats, who are currently in the process of repealing several presidential war powers, are concerned that the tit for tat between the United States and the militias are hostilities that demand Biden ask Congress for approval to launch military action. “The United States must always take decisive action to protect our personnel and interests against attacks. I will be seeking more information from the Administration in the coming days regarding what specifically predicated these strikes, any imminent threats they believed they were acting against, and more details on the legal authority the Administration relied upon,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) said in a statement earlier on Monday.
Biden’s bombing of Iraq and Syria: the normalization of war - Washington ordered airstrikes against two nations simultaneously Sunday night, using F-15 and F-16 warplanes to rain an assortment of precision-guided munitions on two targets in Syria and one in Iraq. Screenshot of footage of the United States military airstrikes on what they said were facilities used by “Iran-backed militia groups” near the Iraq-Syria border on June 27. (DVIDS via Storyful) Sources on the ground reported five people killed on the Iraqi side of the border and one child killed and several other people wounded on the Syrian side. Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi denounced the airstrike as “a blatant and unacceptable violation of Iraqi sovereignty.” Syria’s Foreign Ministry told the official Sana news agency that the air raids demonstrated “the recklessness of US policies and the need for Washington to withdraw its aggressor forces” from the region. The attacks were answered Monday by a militia shelling a US base in Syria and threats by Iraqi militias of retaliation against US forces. This is second such bombing raid launched by the Pentagon against the Iraqi-Syrian border region since the Democratic administration of President Joe Biden came into office in January. The first, against a target in eastern Syria, came just one month after Biden entered the White House. That February airstrike marked the first such US bombing inside Syria since the end of 2019, when the Trump administration brought the region, and potentially the entire planet, to the brink of war with its drone missile assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Qassem Suleimani. It signaled to the world what Biden’s vacuous slogan proclaiming that “America is back” really means: US imperialism is embarking upon an even more aggressive foreign policy under the Democrats, threatening the world with catastrophic new wars. Ostensibly, both Monday’s and February’s attacks were carried out in retaliation against attacks on US bases inside Iraq by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias hostile to the nearly two-decade-long American occupation. In February, the Pentagon cited a rocket that was fired at the US base in Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital of Erbil. The latest airstrikes were justified as a response to militia attacks using drones against several targets, including a secret CIA facility. One of the remarkable characteristics of the latest attacks is their failure to elicit any significant response or analysis, much less criticism, from within the US media and political establishment. A US president attacking two countries on the same day, in flagrant violation of international law and with no legal authorization from the US Congress, barely makes the news. Leading Democrats and Republicans both praised the action, with some suggesting that further aggression was in order against Iran.
Fear of Florida: Why Biden doesn't act on Cuba - The U.S. vote in the United Nations General Assembly against the resolution calling on the United States to lift its embargo on Cuba is another example of President Joe Biden’s reluctance to move away from Donald Trump’s Cuba policy. The first signal was the administration’s decision to reaffirm, with no real evidence, Trump’s determination that Cuba is not supporting U.S. counterterrorism efforts. The reason for Biden’s failure to reengage with Cuba, despite promising he would during the campaign, is fear of Florida. Democrats are still suffering electoral PTSD from Al Gore losing the state — and the presidency — to George W. Bush by 537 votes, a loss in which Cuba was a central issue and Cuban Americans played a pivotal role. Gore won just 20 percent of the Cuban American vote in Florida in 2000, far below Bill Clinton’s tally of 35 percent four years earlier. The reason was Elián González, the five-year-old boy found floating in an inner tube after his mother and other Cuban adults drowned trying to cross the Florida Straits. To the outrage of most Cuban Americans, the Clinton Justice Department forcibly seized Elián from his uncle in Miami in April 2000, and returned him to his father in Cuba. In November, Cuban Americans cast a “voto castigo” — a punishment vote — against Gore, who was Clinton’s vice president at the time.Biden’s Florida campaign strategy in 2020 was to say as little about Cuba as possible because nothing he could say would win votes and whatever he said would certainly lose some. This left the electoral battlefield to Republicans, whose carefully crafted appeals to Cuban Americans (and Venezuelan Americans and Colombia Americans) branded Democrats as socialists.The result was a Democratic debacle. Biden won Miami-Dade County by just 7 percent, compared to Hillary Clinton’s 30 percent margin in 2016, a decline that put Florida’s electoral votes well out of reach. Democrats also lost two House seats that they thought were safe. Trump won more than 60 percent of the Cuban American vote — the most since Bush in 2000. This new trauma has intensified the Democrats’ fear of Florida at a moment when it looms large in calculations for the 2022 midterm elections. In an uphill battle to hold their House majority, Democrats will try to win back those two House seats in Miami-Dade. Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), who made the short list to be Biden’s vice president, has declared her candidacy to challenge Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, and Democrats also hope to dethrone Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).
Biden goes to Surfside to promote bipartisan cover-up of Florida condo collapse - US President Joe Biden spent Thursday in Surfside, Florida, to meet with state and local politicians, first responders and family members of those who were buried in the catastrophic collapse of the Champlain Towers South condominium in the small town north of Miami Beach one week ago. Biden landed at Miami International Airport in the morning and proceeded to the St. Regis Hotel Resort in nearby Bal Harbour for a series of scripted meetings designed to provide maximum media coverage. The president and first lady also made an unscheduled visit to the “Surfside Wall of Hope & Memorial,” two blocks from the condo site in Surfside, which has been erected to honor those who have lost their lives or remain unaccounted for prior to heading back to Washington, D.C. In his first meeting of the day, the political purpose of Biden’s visit was made plain. Attending the Thursday command briefing on the building collapse, Biden sat between Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis and Democratic Party Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava with news media present. Republican Senators Rick Scott and Marco Rubio along with Democratic Representative Debbie Wasserman-Schultz were on the other side of the table. As Mayor Levine Cava was effusively praising and thanking Governor DeSantis, Biden interrupted, put his hand on DeSantis’s arm and said, “You know what’s good about this? The way you have cooperated and it’s really important. ... We come together. This is life and death. I just got back from 12 days in Europe and they wonder whether we can do this. And you’re doing it, just the simple act of everybody doing whatever needs to be done. And it really makes a difference.” Biden’s praise was returned by DeSantis, who said, “Thank you Mr. President. You have recognized the severity of this tragedy from day one and you’ve been very supportive.” This from a governor who has refused to state clearly whether Biden was elected legitimately and as recently as May 25 called Biden an “absentee president” during a Fox News interview. While Biden was nattering on about how the two parties of American capitalism are cooperating and working together, he was sitting across the table from a senator who attempted to block the certification of votes in Congress on January 6. Senator Rick Scott voted to reject the certification of electors from the state of Pennsylvania following the attempted coup by a fascist-led mob incited by Trump that attacked the US Congress. The desperation and crisis of the US political establishment in the aftermath of the Surfside catastrophe is evident in the details of Biden’s trip to Florida. As has been proven throughout the coronavirus pandemic, the tiny financial elite—which has grown obscenely wealthy over the 40 years since the Champlain Towers South condominium was originally built—is uninterested in and hostile to the health and safety of the public. No manner of sympathy and crocodile tears from President Biden is going to change this.
Biden Classifies Opposition to ‘Capitalism and Corporate Globalization’ As Extremism -I’ve alluded to the new National Security laws that are coming. Resistance Liberals do and will praise these laws, thinking that the government is finally going to crack down on right-wing domestic extremism.The government itself, of course, understands that (a) right-wing extremism is no threat to government at all……and (b) half of the nation’s cop force, if not more, share right-wing views anyway…No, the only real threat to the Establishment State these days is from the actual left, those opposed to the pathological and ideological worship of money (we call it “Milton Friedman neoliberalism” these days). Sanders posed such a threat, and the whole of the Democratic Party establishment combined to take him down:If actual fascists take over the corporate state, they will be merged into the state, or the state will be merged into them. Fascist generally represent no threat to the corrupt flow of money that already forms the lifeblood of most governments, since Money always loves authoritarian rule. Pinochet is an excellent example of that. So is the little Austrian no one wants to name.But if anti-corruption forces really get up a head of popular steam, it will be like mixing oil and water trying to get their goals to combine with the corruption that keeps the hyper-rich in power and place. The actual left is the actual “enemy of the state,” and the state well knows it.Resistance to that resistance will be political, of course — witness the fate of the Sanders campaigns of 2016 and 2020. But it will also be armed as well, as it always is.Which brings us first to this apologetic explanation of Biden’s new pro-capital security posture, from Newsweek — “Has Joe Biden Made Anti-Capitalism Illegal? Domestic Terrorism Strategy Explained” — which attempts to inoculate the administration from the implications of its own plain language. See the graphic above for the administration’s own plain language.And then it brings us, by coincidence of synchronicity, to this from Forbes: “The U.S. Military Wants A Better Microwave Weapon. Will The Police Also Use It?”Taken together, we can see the writing on the wall. There’s some kind of civil war coming, and the state is getting ready to fight it.
Biden nixes Trump rules on methane emissions, lending, employment discrimination –President Biden on Wednesday eliminated three Trump-era rules governing climate change, finance and employment discrimination claims, signing Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolutions passed by the House and Senate to get rid of the rules. "I'm about to sign into law three bills ... protecting our planet from climate disturbing greenhouse gas, particularly methane, which is devastating, protecting consumers from predatory lenders and protecting workers from employment discrimination," Biden said. "Each of these bills reflects a return to common sense and commitment to the common good," he added. His signature makes it the first time that Democrats have successfully used the CRA, which needs a simple majority vote in both chambers and presidential approval, to get rid of recently-passed rules. The CRA was successfully used just once before 2017, but at the start of Trump’s presidency Republicans were able to eliminate more than a dozen Obama-era regulations since they controlled both the House and Senate. The climate rule that Biden got rid of weakened regulation on a powerful greenhouse gas called methane. Specifically, eliminated standards aimed at limiting methane emissions from oil and gas production, processing transmission and storage. Biden’s action restored 2016 Obama-era regulations that required companies to capture methane leaks. The Trump rule was expected to add 400,000 short tons of methane, which is more powerful than carbon dioxide but spends less time in the atmosphere, into the air over the course of a decade. The rule was also expected to create an extra hurdle for regulating air pollution in general by requiring the EPA to determine that certain emissions it wants to limit contribute “significantly” to air pollution before it can regulate them. Another rule allowed lenders to offer loans at interest rates that exceed state limits if they team up with a federally chartered bank headquartered in a state with a higher cap. The Trump administration argued that the rule clears up uncertainty surrounding who is the “true lender” in such cases, but opponents say it allows lenders to charge consumers higher rates. The third rule that Biden eliminated requires the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission to provide more information to employers when the agency is trying to help reach an out-of-court resolution in discrimination cases. The Trump administration said the additional information would improve transparency, while critics said it could lead to retaliation because employers would be able to better-identify victims and witnesses, with employers also having an advantage in potential litigation through early access to information.
House Ethics panel upholds $5,000 metal detector fine against GOP lawmaker -The House Ethics Committee on Monday upheld a $5,000 fine levied against Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) for failing to complete a security screening before entering the House chamber. Smucker is the third House Republican whose appeal against paying the fine has been rejected by the House Ethics Committee. The two other Republicans — Reps. Louie Gohmert (Texas) and Andrew Clyde (Ga.) — filed a lawsuit earlier this month challenging the constitutionality of using fines to enforce compliance with the metal detectors installed outside of the House chamber after the Jan. 6 insurrection. In their lawsuit filed in a D.C. federal court, Gohmert and Clyde argued that the fines amount to "a means of harassing democratically-elected representatives who are members of the opposition party in the House of Representatives." The House Ethics Committee last month agreed to drop the metal detector fines issued against House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.). A bipartisan majority of the evenly split panel — which has five Democrats and five Republicans — must agree for an appeal to succeed. Another case, involving a fine issued to Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), is still pending. According to the Capitol Police report filed with the fine notification issued to Smucker, the Pennsylvania Republican entered the House chamber on May 19 without being screened despite police officers' attempts to get his attention. The officers were eventually able to inform Smucker that he needed to go through the magnetometer. Smucker then complied with a screening after he had already voted on the House floor.
U.S. House votes to scuttle statues of Confederate leaders, bust of Dred Scott author - — The U.S. House voted Tuesday to remove from the Capitol a bust of the late Supreme Court Chief Justice Roger Taney, a Marylander who wrote the despised Dred Scott decision — as well as evict statues and busts of men who fought for the Confederacy or served in its government.The legislation passed on a vote of 285-120, with all the nay votes from Republicans and 67 of them voting with Democrats. It would replace the marble bust of Taney, which is displayed outside the old Supreme Court chamber on the first floor of the Capitol, with one of the late Thurgood Marshall, a fellow Marylander who was the first Black member of the Supreme Court.Taney wrote the majority opinion in 1857 in Dred Scott, a case initiated in Missouri. The ruling, which provoked intense opposition in the North, said that people of African descent were not citizens and had no right to bring suit in federal court — effectively upholding slavery.The House bill also would direct the Architect of the Capitol to remove other statues and busts of individuals connected with the Confederacy. The bill specifically mentions three men who promoted slavery and segregation — Charles B. Aycock, of North Carolina; John C. Calhoun, of South Carolina; and James P. Clarke, of Arkansas.At least eight other statues and busts would be poised for removal under the measure, based on a preliminary assessment from staffers for Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, (D-Md.), who introduced the bill.Those statutes include Alexander Hamilton Stephens, a former governor and U.S. representative from Georgia; and Edmund Kirby Smith, a Confederate general from Florida who already is poised to be replaced this year with a statue of civil rights leader Mary McLeod Bethune. North Carolina’s statues also include Zebulon Baird Vance, who organized the Confederate Army’s Rough and Ready Guards and served as governor during the Civil War.
Trump supporter warns CNN reporter of 'civil war' if former president not reinstated 'soon' --CNN reporter Donie O'Sullivan spoke with several supporters of former President Trump ahead of his first post-presidential rally on Saturday, many of whom told him they fully expect the real estate mogul to be reinstated before the end of the summer and warned of potential political violence in America if he is not. "He didn't lose, I know he didn't lose," one woman told O'Sullivan, indicating she believes unfounded claims made by Trump and other Republicans that widespread voter fraud led to an unfair election that swung in President Biden's favor. Many of the supporters who gathered for the Saturday rally in Wellington, Ohio, wore memorabilia and carried signs with slogans like "Trump won" and "Biden sucks" displayed across them. "It's about all of them, and 2020 and the next one," another woman told O'Sullivan about her "Trump won" T-shirt. O'Sullivan pressed the woman on the election's result, saying, "But he lost though in 2020, right?" "No!" she responded. A third group of Trump supporters indicated before the rally that the one message they hoped to hear from the former president is that "he's coming back." Trump has reportedly been pressuring allies in conservative media and other confidants to push his claim that the election was stolen and suggest he will be reinstated as soon as August. There is no mechanism by which such a reinstatement could happen."He's coming back soon, and you guys are going down," a Trump supporter in Wellington identified as Ron told O'Sullivan, sparking laughter from others in his group. "The military already knows it was a fraud. He won by over 80 percent." Ron continued: "He's coming back before the middle of August." "And what if that doesn't happen?" O'Sullivan asked. "We're going to be in a civil war because the militia will be taking over," the man responded. A self-described member of the right-wing Three Percenters militia group who attended the rally told O'Sullivan he was at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, when a mob of Trump supporters breached the complex and briefly halted a joint session of Congress from certifying Biden's Electoral College victory. At least six members of the Three Percenters have been charged with conspiring to attack the U.S. Capitol that day. "Yeah, I don't think anybody should have went inside, but when you're worked up in the moment and the adrenaline is pumping, you know, it just happens," the man in a Kevlar vest said. One woman told O'Sullivan she believed the Jan. 6 insurrection was completely "staged." O'Sullivan asked the self-avowed militia member if he believed more violence was imminent relative to Trump and the 2020 election. "Yeah," he responded. "I honestly believe it's coming."
Trump Organization chief financial officer indicted on felony charges in tax fraud and conspiracy schemeIn the first criminal case against entities and persons tied to former President Donald Trump’s business activities, New York prosecutors on Thursday charged the Trump Organization, Trump Payroll Corporation and Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg with 15 felony counts, as part of an alleged grand larceny and tax fraud scheme stretching from March 31, 2005 through June 30, 2021. The 73-year-old Weisselberg, an employee of the Trump family since 1973, surrendered at the Manhattan District Attorney’s office early Thursday morning, where he was forced to hand over his passport after prosecutors alleged he was a “high flight risk.” He was briefly handcuffed and marched to a Thursday afternoon court hearing during which he pleaded “not guilty.” Weisselberg was subsequently released on his own recognizance. A lawyer for the Trump Organization also entered a “not guilty” plea on all counts. The charges against the Trump Organization, Trump Payroll Corporation and Weisselberg include one count each of scheming to defraud in the first degree and conspiracy in the fourth degree, four counts of criminal tax fraud in the third degree and four counts of falsifying business records in the first degree. Additionally, Weisselberg is being charged with grand larceny in the second degree and four counts of offering a false instrument for filing in the first degree. The indictment describes the charges as part of an “off-the-books” scheme in which high-ranking executives in the Trump Organization, such as Weisselberg and members of his family, were provided rent-free housing in New York City, Mercedes-Benz cars to drive and elite private school tuition, along with home renovations and holiday bonuses, all as part of “compensation packages” that were not reported to the Internal Revenue Service and not taxed. Prosecutors relied on financial records turned over by Jennifer Weisselberg, former daughter-in-law to Allen and former wife to Barry Weisselberg, Allen’s son. Democratic Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. wrote in the 25-page indictment: “The purpose of the scheme was to compensate Weisselberg and other Trump Organization executives in a manner that was ‘off the books’: the beneficiaries of the scheme received substantial portions of their income through indirect and disguised means, with compensation that was unreported or misreported by the Trump Corporation or Trump Payroll Corp.” The indictment alleges that from 2005 through 2017, “corporate defendants provided Weisselberg approximately $1,174,018 in unclaimed income resulting from the payment of his rent and related expenses.” According to the indictment, other unreported and untaxed benefits brought the grand total illegally going to Weisselberg and his family to over $1.76 million. While Trump himself has not been charged, commentators speculate that the battery of felony charges against Weisselberg is an attempt to get him to turn state’s witness, similar to former Trump attorney Michael Cohen. So far, Weisselberg has given no indication that he will do so.
Key witness against Assange admits to lying in exchange for US immunity - Sigurdur “Siggi” Thordarson, a convicted criminal from Iceland, has admitted that the main allegations he made against Julian Assange, which form a central component of the US indictment against the WikiLeaks founder, were lies proffered in exchange for immunity from American prosecution.The revelation, contained in an extensive article by Stundin, a well-known Icelandic biweekly, is dramatic confirmation that the US attempt to prosecute Assange is a criminal enterprise.It again demonstrates that the American Espionage Act charges against Assange, and the proceedings for his extradition from Britain to the US, are a pseudo-legal cover for an extraordinary rendition. In this operation, the US Justice Department has collaborated with individuals whom it knows to be criminals, in the concoction of a fabricated indictment that was then submitted to the British courts. In June 2020, US prosecutors issued a new superseding indictment against Assange, months after the first week of British court hearings for his extradition.The document contained the existing 17 Espionage Act charges against Assange, over WikiLeaks 2010 and 2011 publication of US army war logs from Iraq and Afghanistan and hundreds of thousands of American diplomatic cables. Leaked by the courageous whistleblower Chelsea Manning, the material included evidence of widespread war crimes, as well as the intrigues and conspiracies of American imperialism on a world scale.The June indictment did not contain additional charges. It was a transparent effort to bolster the 18th count against Assange, which accuses him of attempted computer intrusion in league with Manning. In the January 2020 British court hearings, that charge had been demolished by defence evidence, showing that Assange and Manning had not hacked into any American computer system.At the same time the US was faced with a growing public recognition that the Espionage Act charges against Assange were an attempt to criminalise press freedom, in violation of international law and the First Amendment of the US Constitution.American prosecutors responded by incorporating false testimony they had already secured from Thordarson and Hector “Sabu” Monsegur, a criminal hacker turned FBI supergrass. The information they furnished was aimed at bolstering the narrative that Assange was a common-variety hacker and criminal, not a journalist and publisher.
YouTube 'mistakenly' suspends Right Wing Watch, reinstates channel - tYouTube reinstated the channel Right Wing Watch on Monday, saying it “mistakenly” suspended the account, which focuses on monitoring conservative groups and figures. “Right Wing Watch’s YouTube channel was mistakenly suspended, but upon further review, has now been reinstated,” a YouTube spokesperson said in a statement. Right Wing Watch tweeted screenshots Monday from YouTube messages notifying the group that its channel had been suspended over community guideline violations and that an appeal to the suspension had been denied. “Our efforts to expose the bigoted view and dangerous conspiracy theories spread by right-wing activists has now resulted in @YouTube banning our channel and removing thousands of our videos,” the group tweeted. Right Wing Watch is a project from the nonprofit organization People for the American Way. The group’s researchers monitor right-wing media outlets and public figures in an effort to expose risks posed by violent rhetoric and disinformation. Director Adele Stan said the group is “glad” that its account has been reinstated and urged the platform to be more transparent going forward about its process to determine what videos violate its rules. “We are glad that by reinstating our account, YouTube recognizes our position that there is a world of difference between reporting on offensive activities and committing them. Without the ability to accurately portray dangerous behavior, meaningful journalism and public education about that behavior would cease to exist. We hope this is the end of a years-long struggle with YouTube to understand the nature of our work,” Stan said in a statement.
Facebook could be held liable for sex trafficking on its platform, court rules -The Texas Supreme Court ruled Friday that Facebook can be held liable if sex traffickers use the platform to prey on children.The state court ruled that Facebook is not a "lawless no-man’s-land" and could be held accountable following three Texas-based lawsuits that involved teenage sex traffic victims, the Houston Chronicle first reported. The victims were reportedly preyed on through the social media platform’s messaging system – prompting prosecutors to claim the site was negligent in not better blocking sex trafficking opportunities.Facebook contended that it is protected under Section 230 – an internet law that says online platforms are not responsible for third-party content posted on the service's site. "Holding internet platforms accountable for words or actions of their users is one thing, and the federal precedent uniformly dictates that section 230 does not allow it," the court found, according to the Chronicle. "Holding internet platforms accountable for their own misdeeds is quite another thing. This is particularly the case for human trafficking."
Quick Comment on the Dismissal of Antitrust Suits Against Facebook - Yves Smith –(see embedded tweets, etc) The effort to rein in Big Tech looks to have taken a defeat, if headlines and the reaction of Mr. Market are to be believed, when District Judge James Boasberg, an Obama appointee, tossed out two anti-trust cases against Facebook yesterday. We’ve embedded his opinion on the FTC filing, which was dismissed without prejudice, at the end of this post. The related case by 46 state attorneys general was dismissed in total. As the Wall Street Journal explained:The 46 states made arguments similar to those of the FTC, while also alleging that Facebook degraded personal privacy and exploited consumer data because it had no rivals to keep it in check.Judge Boasberg, in turn, offered similar rejections of the states’ claims as he did to the FTC’s, with one notable exception: He said the states, unlike the federal government, can’t challenge Facebook’s past acquisitions years after the fact.Now back to the particulars. We’ll crib from Matt Stoller’s write-up, although as we will explain, we differ with him on the reading of a key issue. We encourage you to read his post in full here.Stoller argues that the 4% rise in Facebook’s value on the decision is deceptive; the ruling comes off as so intuitively wrong as to offend Congresscritters from both parties. Stoller highlights Republican Ken Buck falling in line with Amy Klobuchar: Warren was pointed: So Facebook winning this skirmish may have cost them bigly in term of the war…but that war is going to take a while to play out.One important win for the FTC, despite the apparent overall failure, was that, as the Journal alluded, the FTC can challenge Facebook’s purchases of WhatsApp and Instagram.
Biden Plans Anti-Monopoly Executive Order Targeting Big Business - Yesterday, a US district judge tossed out an anti-trust case brought against Facebook by the federal government and a coalition of states (swiftly sending the tech giant's market cap past the $1 trillion mark). At the same time, reports emerged claiming the DoJ's anti-trust division was preparing to revive a Trump-era anti-trust push targeting Google's display ad business. With Lina Khan in charge at the FTC and Tim Wu installed as special assistant to the president on competition, increasing attention is being paid to the Biden Administration's anti-trust plans now that breaking up Big Tech has become an issue with bipartisan support in Congress, with lawmakers of both parties supporting more scrutiny (while others said to be in the pocket of Big Tech have dutifully pushed back). As curiosity about the administration's next steps mounts, WSJ reported Tuesday evening (following an earlier report from Reuters) that the White House is planning a sweeping executive order that would direct federal agencies to strengthen oversight of industries that they perceive to be dominated by a small number of companies.The order comes as House lawmakers are pushing ahead with a package of anti-trust legislation aimed at restraining Big Tech. The order reportedly builds on a 2016 report by the White House Council of Economic Advisors. A similar anti-trust order handed down by President Barack Obama in 2016 failed to "move the needle" on the competition front.The order will direct regulators of industries from airlines to agriculture to rethink their rule-making process to inject more competition and to give consumers, workers and suppliers more rights to challenge large producers.Based on what we know so far, it doesn't look like the order will pressure regulators to push for the outright breakup of industrial conglomerates, large corporate farms or American tech giants.The goal is to broaden the way policy makers approach business concentration in the U.S., going beyond conventional antitrust enforcement focused on blocking big mergers. For example, companies in industries controlled by a small number of big firms might face new rules for disclosing fees to consumers or for their relationships with suppliers, the people familiar with the effort said.Opponents of tighter anti-trust rules are hopeful that the conservative SCOTUS will weigh in to block Biden's attempts to override Congress and unilaterally impose new restrictions on American corporations (while at the same time working out a new global minimum corporate tax that would, if ever implemented, likely increase the tax bills of American multinationals).
Amazon Seeks Recusal Of FTC Head Lina Khan As Antitrust Probe Ramps Up - Amazon is pushing back against the Biden Administration's effort to impose new anti-trust strictures on Big Tech by filing a complaint with the FTC asking that Lina Khan, recently confirmed as head of the commission, recuse herself from all dealings involving Amazon. In its request, filed with the agency on Wednesday, the company argued that Khan should be barred from handling enforcement decisions involving Amazon because Khan "on numerous occasions argued that Amazon is guilty of antitrust violations and should be broken up." Amazon added that "these statements convey to any reasonable observer the clear impression that she has already made up her mind about many material facts relevant to Amazon's antitrust culpability as well as about the ultimate issue of culpability itself." "Given her long track record of detailed pronouncements about Amazon, and her repeated proclamations that Amazon has violated the antitrust laws, a reasonable observer would conclude that she no longer can consider the company’s antitrust defenses with an open mind," Amazon said in a statement. "Indeed, doing so would require her to repudiate the years of writings and statements that are at the foundation of her professional career." The petition has been filed as the FTC is in the middle of a review of Amazon's deal with movie studio MGM, which it's seeking to acquire for a whopping $8.45 billion. Other antitrust talking heads have said the deal would likely be difficult for the government to stop, though it did help revive complaints about the economic power of Big Tech. The FTC is also pursuing a wide-ranging anti-trust probe into Aamzon's business practices. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren asked Khan on Wednesday to ensure she conducts a "broad and meticulous review" of the MGM deal, saying the deal could have anti-competitive effects on video streaming. "The FTC should disfavor approving deals involving parties with a known pattern of inhibiting competition and harming consumers and workers," Warren said. "Allowing such firms to continue buying up competitors would only exacerbate these abuses of market power." Khan established her profile in the antitrust world with a 2017 paper she wrote while still a law student exploring Amazon's dominance. Entitled "Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox," the paper explained how the online retailer came to control key infrastructure of the digital economy and how traditional antitrust analysis fails to consider the danger to competition posed by the company. Khan, a Democrat, currently leads the five-member commission which enjoys a 3-2 majority.
Amazon Arrogance Backfires, Tries to Smear Incoming FTC Chair Lina Khan as Needing to Recuse Herself Because She Knows Them Too Well - Yves Smith - Amazon had jumped the shark. It has just made a ludicrous demand, that newly appointed FTC chair Lina Khan needs to recuse herself on Amazon matters because she wrote academic papers about the retail giant that concluded that Amazon behaved badly. Mind you, Amazon didn’t just engage in normal big company huffing and puffing. It filed a motion with the FTC, which we embedded at the end of this post.I am struggling to come up with anything even remotely similar in terms of a company eye-poking an important regulator. Even an egomaniac like Jamie Dimon never pulled a stunt like this. The closest I can think of is Charles Keating for a while winning in his war with the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, by virtue of owning five Senators.Amazon apparently believes it can stare down the turn in opinion inside the beltway against the power of tech titans. Kahn is a well known anti-trust hardliner. Per Amazon, her sins were having written a law review article as a student describing how antitrust law had not reined in Amazon, working for an antitrust organization where she again called for curbing Amazon, and later serving as counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee during its investigation of technology platforms. Both Democrats and Republicans applauded Kahn’s nomination.Amazon’s heavy-handed move is not only almost certainly a non-starter, but it also comes at the cost of confirming the bad opinion that people in power increasingly hold about Amazon, as well as registering negatively with fence-sitters. Has the Seattle titan not worked out that at least some of the Congresscritters that it thought it had acquired didn’t stay bought? Even the Wall Street Journal, which attempts to depict Amazon’s filing as something other than petty or stupid, conceded that efforts to force regulators onto the sidelines for having expressed opinions have generally bombed:
Amazon Demands One More Thing From Some Vendors: A Piece of Their Company – WSJ --Suppliers that want to land Amazon.com as a client for their goods and services can find that its business comes with a catch: the right for Amazon to buy big stakes in their companies at potentially steep discounts to market value. The technology-and-retail giant has struck at least a dozen deals with publicly traded companies in which it gets rights, called warrants, to buy the vendors’ stock in the future at what could be below-market prices, according to corporate filings and interviews with people involved with the deals. Amazon over the past decade also has done more than 75 such deals with privately held companies, according to a person familiar with the matter. In all, the tech titan’s stakes and potential stakes amount to billions of dollars across companies that provide everything from call-center services to natural gas, and in some cases position Amazon among the top shareholders in those businesses. The unusual arrangements offer another window into how Amazon uses its market heft to increase its wealth and clout. The company has been under growing scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers over its competitive practices, including with companies it partners with. While the deals can benefit the suppliers by locking in big contracts, which can also boost their share prices, executives at several of the companies said they felt they couldn’t refuse Amazon’s push for the right to buy the stock without risking a major contract. The deals in some cases also give Amazon rights such as board representation and the ability to top any acquisition offers from other companies. For Amazon, the arrangements give it a piece of the potential upside their vendors can get from doing business with one of the world’s biggest companies. Amazon routinely leverages its size and power to force terms that benefit itself, including by getting partners in one business to sign on to its other services; learning about up-and-coming technology companies through its venture-capital fund; or creating top selling Amazon branded goods that compete with small sellers on its site. It has aggressively competed to wrest market share from rivals, which Amazon says results in better deals for shoppers. In its supplier deals that include warrants, Amazon throws its weight around to exact lucrative terms, knowing many companies won’t refuse, according to former Amazon executives who worked on the deals.
Colonial Pipeline shows how not to handle a ransomware attack - The recent cyberattacks on the Colonial Pipeline and JBS, the global food supplier, underscore the damages that can occur from ransomware — a form of malware that appeared in 10% of the cybersecurity breaches studied in the recently released 2021 Verizon Data Breach Investigations Report. The rise of cryptocurrency has helped fuel the growth of ransomware as a business model. To put the problem into context, the value of ransomware payments made in cryptocurrencyrose 337% from 2019 to 2020, to more than $400 million. In response to this growing threat vector, the federal government has now elevated ransomware to a critical priority, with the FBI director likening the recent wave of attacks to what the country faced after 9/11. It’s clear that no sector is immune and, when hit with a ransomware attack, banks are often tempted to follow the example of Colonial and JBS and pay up. After all, failure to do so will prolong the negative customer impact, brand reputation, logistical headaches and all the other challenges that accompany this nightmare scenario. However, banks must ignore hackers’ ransomware demands for several reasons.
Gensler Throws a Wrench in SEC’s Revolving Door; Appoints Career Prosecutor as Crime Chief -- Pam Martens -- SEC Chair Gary Gensler has selected the sitting Attorney General of New Jersey, Gurbir Grewal, age 48, to be his Director of Enforcement. The selection has pleased progressive public interest groups who have been advocating for years against allowing former Wall Street defense attorneys to take the top leadership positions at the SEC. The nonpartisan watchdog group, Better Markets, Tweeted a quote from its President and CEO, Dennis Kelleher, saying that Grewal “appears to be the opposite of a Wall Street defense lawyer, which is a welcome break with the past and exactly what the SEC division of enforcement needs.”Gensler came under withering criticism from progressives when he appointed a law partner from Paul Weiss for the job in April, Alex Young K. Oh. She abruptly resigned after just six days on the job when it became clear she was going to be sanctioned by a judge over her conduct in an Exxon case. (Our critique of Paul Weiss as the law firm Wall Street banks had flocked to for decades in hopes of dodging their serial fraud charges perhaps didn’t help her standing either.)Grewal won’t take his post at the SEC until July 26, apparently needing some time to wind up matters in the New Jersey Attorney General’s office.Grewal has served as the New Jersey Attorney General since January 16, 2018. Before that he had been the Bergen County Prosecutor from January 2016 to January 2018. Prior to that he held various positions in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Jersey from November 2010 to January 2016. His last position there was Chief of the Economic Crimes Unit.Prior to his years in public service, Grewal worked for the large law firm Howrey LLP, which dissolved in 2011. His work included representing publicly-traded companies in proceedings with financial regulators. Grewal is a graduate of Georgetown University and received his law degree from the College of William & Mary. He is the father of three. His wife, Amrit, is a neurologist.
Witness Drops Bombshell at House Hearing: Hedge Funds Are Getting “100 Times” Leverage on Crypto - By Pam Martens - Yesterday, the House Financial Services’ Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations held a critically important hearing on the crypto craze that has engulfed U.S. financial markets. The hearing was titled: “America on ‘FIRE’: Will the Crypto Frenzy Lead to Financial Independence and Early Retirement or Financial Ruin?” Before the witnesses could testify, the Republican Ranking Member of the Subcommittee, Congressman Tom Emmer of Minnesota, delivered Alice in Wonderland opening remarks that downplayed the legitimate concerns of the hearing and effectively characterized crypto as the best innovation since sliced bread. (Emmer is a former registered lobbyist in Minnesota and his Congressional campaign coffers are stuffed with money from the financial services industry.) It didn’t take long, however, for that farcical assessment to collapse under the weight of testimony from a Wall Street veteran, Alexis Goldstein, who is the current Director of Financial Policy for the nonprofit group, the Open Markets Institute. Goldstein was asked by Congresswoman Maxine Waters about a survey released earlier this year by the accounting firm, PwC, which indicated that 1 in 7 hedge funds have 10 to 20 percent of their total assets under management invested in crypto. (Equally frightening, the same survey found that 86 percent of the hedge funds currently investing in crypto intend to deploy more capital by the end of this year.) Goldstein responded that the public has already witnessed this year the collapse of the family office hedge fund, Archegos, which demonstrated that when banks have prime broker relationships with hedge funds it can create losses at the banks, which hold federally-insured (taxpayer-backstopped) deposits. (Large global banks lost more than $10.4 billion when Archegos defaulted on its margin loans to the banks in March.) Goldstein explained: “If hedge funds get farther into crypto, they don’t care about direction. They’ll go long, they’ll go short. They can use leverage. There are lots of cryptocurrency exchanges like FTX and Binance and many others that allow people to use insane amounts of leverage – 100 times to 1…So what happens if a huge number of hedge funds have prime broker relationships with too-big-to-fail banks [and] all happen to be in similar crypto positions, whether it’s long or short and there’s massive volatility in the market. They may have to sell some of their other assets. It may lead to margin calls in their non-crypto assets which could lead to forced liquidations and sort of redound to the banks themselves in the form of counterparty risk.” Not to put too fine a point on it but counterparty risk is what led to the financial contagion that crashed Wall Street in 2008, leading to the worst economic crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression of the 1930s. (For a nightmare snapshot of what insane leverage and interconnectivity looked like at that time, here’s a chart of Goldman Sachs’ derivative exposure to other banks as of June 2008.)Waters then asked Goldstein if there was any transparency on which specific hedge funds held the largest positions in crypto and who their counterparties are. Goldstein responded that crypto is not currently reported on the 13F forms that hedge funds are required to file with the SEC so regulators are currently “totally in the dark.”Hmmm. Darkness and 100 to 1 leverage. What could possibly go wrong?Goldstein rounded out this potential doomsday scenario in her written testimony to the Subcommittee. Goldstein explained how the mega banks on Wall Street, which provide margin lending and securities lending to hedge funds under a program they quaintly call “prime broker” services, are themselves taking a “growing presence in the cryptocurrency market.”
Robinhood Says Dogecoin Is a Risk to Its Business - The trading app Robinhood thinks that Dogecoin, the "joke cryptocurrency" with a current market cap of $32 billion, is a risk to its business, according to a just released S-1 securities registration form the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which waspublished online today.According to Robinhood's S-1, a substantial portion of the company's recent growth in net revenues was earned from cryptocurrency transactions in Dogecoin. More specifically, Robinhood said that for the first three months of 2021, 17 percent of its total revenue was derived from cryptocurrency transactions, compared to 4 percent for the last three months of 2020. While Robinhood currently allows users to buy and sell seven different cryptocurrencies, 34 percent of its cryptocurrency transaction-based revenue was attributable to Dogecoin. "If demand for transactions in Dogecoin declines and is not replaced by new demand for other cryptocurrencies available for trading on our platform, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected."While Dogecoin's creator thinks its "very wrong" that his joke cryptocurrency is worth so much money, Dogecoin continues to increase in value and awareness because of rampant speculation, brands desperate for relevance, and tweets and memes posted by Elon Musk.So many people want to get rich quickly, or simply get in on the joke that is Dogecoin, and one of the easiest ways to do that is via the Robinhood app. It's become such a major part of its business that, as the S-1 filing says, at this point, it will suffer "if the markets for Dogecoin deteriorate or if the price of Dogecoin declines, including as a result of factors such as negative perceptions of Dogecoin or the increased availability of Dogecoin on other cryptocurrency trading platforms."The S-1 comes one day after the company settled a long list of Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) violations for $70 million (a $57 million fine and $13 million in customer restitution) for causing “widespread and significant harm” to customers thanks to how it handled options trading, service outages, trading halts, customer service, and incorrect information displayed on the platform.“This action sends a clear message—all FINRA member firms, regardless of their size or business model, must comply with the rules that govern the brokerage industry, rules which are designed to protect investors and the integrity of our markets. Compliance with these rules is not optional and cannot be sacrificed for the sake of innovation or a willingness to ‘break things’ and fix them later,” said Jessica Hopper, Executive Vice President and Head of FINRA’s Department of Enforcement, in an announcement. “The fine imposed in this matter, the highest ever levied by FINRA, reflects the scope and seriousness of Robinhood’s violations, including FINRA’s finding that Robinhood communicated false and misleading information to millions of its customers.”
Finra orders Robinhood to pay $70m penalty -- FT Alphaville is shocked, shocked, to find out that commission-free trading app Robinhood might not have been strictly following the rules when it comes to its wildly popular stonk market service.US broker-dealer sheriff Finra just announced it’s slapping a $57m fine on the trading platform, plus ordering it to pay $12.6m in restitution, plus interest, to customers. The reason? For communicating “false and misleading information to its customers” on “a variety of critical issues, including whether customers could place trades on margin, how much cash was in customers’ accounts, how much buying power or ‘negative buying power’ customers had, the risk of loss customers faced in certain options transactions, and whether customers faced margin calls”. Quite a mouthful of alleged malfeasance, that.That makes it the largest penalty the self-regulatory organisation has ever handed out. For the record, Finra states that Robinhood has neither admitted nor denied the charges.The press release, as you might imagine, has all sorts of mouldy nuggets (or tendies?). For instance, did you know that Finra found that Robinhood was offering call-option trading to customers without exercising the necessary due diligence on whether they should be given access to these financial products?Just wow, who could have guessed? More on this one to come we’re sure. $70m might not seem like a lot, but given the apparent political interest in retail investors, we doubt this is the end of the story.
Bitcoin billionaire Mircea Popescu dies, leaving lost fortune -- Controversial Bitcoin billionaire Mircea Popescu, 41, has suddenly died, leaving behind a massive crypto fortune that could be worth as much as $2 billion — and which some speculate could be lost forever. Popescu, known to be among the largest individual holders of Bitcoin in the world at one point, drowned last week off the coast of Costa Rica near Playa Hermosa after going for a morning swim, according to local news reports. Popescu was reportedly “swept away by the current and died on the spot.” His death has since been confirmed by three women who were reportedly known to be close to him, though others have raised questions over whether he’s actually dead. His website, which he previously actively maintained, has not been updated since June 23, the day of his reported death.Popescu, a controversial figure with “documented instances of sexism and bigotry,”according to Nasdaq.com, was estimated to hold at least tens of thousands of Bitcoins, with some estimating even larger holdings.
Fed's Quarles throws cold water on central bank-backed digital dollar — A top Federal Reserve official dealt a blow to the central bank’s consideration of a digital dollar Monday, questioning whether the benefits of a Fed-backed digital currency would outweigh the costs.Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles called the benefits of a central bank digital currency “unclear,” and said that a digital dollar could actually “pose significant and concrete risks,” potentially undermining the U.S. banking system.“An arrangement where the Federal Reserve replaces commercial banks as the dominant provider of money to the general public could constrict the availability of credit, fundamentally alter the economy and expose the public to a host of unanticipated, and undesirable, consequences,” Quarles said in a speech at the Utah Bankers Association Annual Convention.
Fintechs seek CFPB guidance on making AI-based lending fair - Six fintech companies and the National Community Reinvestment Coalition are asking the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to provide guidance on how to use artificial intelligence in lending decisions without running afoul of fair-lending laws.In a letter sent Tuesday to the CFPB, the six companies — Affirm, LendingClub, Oportun, PayPal Holdings, Square and Varo Bank — publicly commit to uphold the “disparate impact” legal doctrine that has been widely unpopular with financial institutions. The legal theory of disparate impact, which is a component of the Fair Housing Act and other fair-lending laws,maintains that a policy is illegal if it has a discriminatory effect on a protected class, but it may not be illigal if there is a business purpose that serves a “substantial, legitimate, nondiscriminatory interest.” The letter marks the first time that a group of lenders has sought common ground with consumer advocates on how to make the disparate impact legal theory apply effectively to lending models that use artificial intelligence, machine learning algorithms and alternative data.
Biden signs repeal of OCC's 'true lender' rule — President Biden has signed off on the congressional repeal of a regulation designed to ease partnerships between national banks and fintech lenders, a significant win for consumer advocates and state bank authorities.On Wednesday night, Biden signed into law a Congressional Review Act resolution that overturned an Office of the Comptroller of the Currency regulation known as the “true lender” rule. The resolution had light bipartisan support in both the House and Senate, with three Republican senators and one House member voting with their Democratic colleagues. The OCC’s now-defunct rule introduced a simple test that examiners would use to determine the “true lender” in bank-nonbank partnerships; if a national bank had funded the loan or was named as the lender in an agreement, the bank would have been considered the true lender.
Q2 2021 Update: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 65 Institutions --The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public. CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest.As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. Here are the quarterly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List through June 25, 2021. Since the last update at the end of March 2021, the list decreased by two to 65 institutions after four additions and six removals. Assets decreased by $7.2 billion to $51.8 billion, with the change entirely from a $7.2 billion decrease because of updated asset figures through March 31, 2021. During the first quarter of 2021, assets at Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas declined by $7.6 billion.On May 26, 2021, the FDIC released first quarter results and provided an update on the Official Problem Bank List. In that release, the FDIC said there were 54 institutions with assets of $55 billion on the official list, little changed from the 55 institutions with assets of $54 billion a quarter earlier.With the conclusion of the second quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,777 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 3.7 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,712 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,008 action terminations, 411 failures, 274 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 411 failures represent 23.1 percent of the 1,777 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list.
Big banks raise dividends after Fed affirms their strength -Many of the nation’s largest banks announced plans Monday to increase shareholder payouts following stress tests that validated the strong performance of industry balance sheets during the pandemic.Nine of the 12 largest banking holding companies — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC Financial Services Group, Truist Financial and U.S. Bancorp — all proposed raising their quarterly dividends payments. No. 15, State Street, did the same. With stock prices at high levels, share buyback proposals were less common, though PNC, BNY Mellon, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo unveiled plans to repurchase their stock or increase their buybacks.
Wall Street Watchdog Assails Fed’s Stress Tests of Mega Banks as “Toothless” – Provides a Wakeup Call to Biden Administration - Pam Martens - Dennis Kelleher, the co-founder, President and CEO of the nonpartisan Wall Street watchdog, Better Markets, has issued a scathing rebuke of the Federal Reserve’s so-called “stress tests” of the mega banks on Wall Street, calling them “toothless.”Kelleher’s criticisms revolve around two key points. The Fed is preordaining the outcome of the tests by (1) pumping up the banks’ capital with financial handouts prior to the tests and (2) by removing key aspects of the stress tests that would negatively impact the outcome.Kelleher writes that the Fed’s “unprecedented” support to financial markets and the economy since last March was $4 trillion and “has materially helped to bolster bank balance sheets and capital levels.” But Kelleher is overlooking the more than $9 trillion in cumulative repo loans that the Fed showered on the trading units of these mega Wall Street banks, at far below market interest rates, from September 17, 2019 through early July of 2020, the month that the Fed simply stopped reporting this handout to the Wall Street banks.This is also how the Fed has ginned up the tests, writes Kelleher:“Making matters worse, the stress test program has been seriously weakened under the Powell chairmanship by, among other things, the removal of two key components: the inclusion of dividend payouts and a growing balance sheet. If those factors were included, as they should have been, the banks would have had materially lower post-stress capital ratios.”Kelleher says the Fed “trumpeted” the fact that all of the banks passed the stress tests to justify letting the banks launch a “flood of dividends and share buybacks likely to approach $200 billion and exceed bank earnings by as much as 167%.”When banks are paying out more than they’re earning, it implies a “reduction in capital, making the banking system less safe,” Better Markets notes in a related five-page fact sheet. The fact sheet includes this warning for Powell:“History may judge the Fed’s decisions to deregulate and weaken the stress tests as to allow such outsized, capital-depleting payouts to be as dangerous as many of the Fed’s actions were before the 2008 GFC [Global Financial Crisis], which made that financial crash much worse, if not inevitable, and all but guaranteed the need for taxpayers to bailout Wall Street’s biggest banks.” This would not be the first time that the Wall Street mega banks paid out more in dividends and share buybacks than their net income. In fact, they’ve been doing it for years under the unwatchful eye of their captured regulator, the Fed.Bloomberg News reporters Lisa Lee and Shahien Nasiripour broke the story in June of last year that Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo had, since 2017, spent more on dividends and share buybacks than they had earned. According to an audit conducted by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), those four banks named above that are paying out more to shareholders than they are earning received the following amounts in cumulative secret loans from the Fed, at interest rates of almost zero, from 2007 to 2010: (See chart below.)
JPMorgan Chase Spent $59.5 Billion Buying Back Its Stock from 2017-2019 while Its Bank Tellers Didn’t Make Enough to Pay for Basic Living Expenses - Pam Martens --According to the 10-K (Annual Report) forms that JPMorgan Chase has filed with the SEC for years 2017, 2018, and 2019, it has bought back a total of $59.5 billion of its own common stock, thus inflating its share price by that sum of money. In 2019 the bank bought back a whopping 212,975,185 shares for $24.12 billion; 181,504,483 shares in 2018 for a total of $19.98 billion; and 166,557,198 shares in 2017 for $15.4 billion. Notice that the growth in the dollar amount of the buybacks grew by 56.6 percent from 2017 to 2019.Who benefitted tremendously from this boosting of the share price? Insiders.According to the proxy JPMorgan Chase filed with the SEC on April 7, Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, owns 9,385,141 shares of the bank’s common stock – the bulk of which he obtained under “performance” awards given to him by his Board of Directors. (Never mind that Dimon’s “performance” has included racking up an unprecedented five felony counts against the bank and paying out more than $43 billion in fines and settlements for egregious financial abuses since 2014.) As of Friday’s closing price, Dimon’s shares had a market value of $1.44 billion,illustrating how handsomely crime pays on Wall Street.The only person on the JPMorgan Chase board with more shares of JPMorgan Chase common stock than Dimon is James S. Crown, the Chairman and CEO of Henry Crown and Company. According to the proxy, Crown owns 12,479,698 shares valued at $1.9 billion as of Friday’s close. The bank has an incestuous relationship with Crown, providing financing for his family’s sprawling businesses. Nonetheless, he is called an “independent” director in the proxy.Both Dimon and Crown benefit greatly from the stock buybacks while thousands of the bank’s workers can’t even meet their monthly bills for the basic necessities of life.At a 2019 House hearing with Wall Street bank CEOs, Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) asked Dimon for help with a math problem. Porter contrasted how Jamie Dimon’s $31 million in compensation for 2018 compared to what his bank is paying one of its bank tellers — a single mother with a 6-year old daughter.Porter explained that she went to Monster.com and found a job in her hometown of Irvine, California for a bank teller at JPMorgan Chase. Porter said the job pays $16.50 per hour or $35,070 per year for an after-tax amount of $29,100 for a single mother with a six-year old child. After deducting for rent on a 1-bedroom apartment, utilities, car payment on a 2008 car, gas, food, the cheapest cell phone, and after-school child care, Porter said the single mom would be $567 in the whole each month.Porter then asked Dimon how this woman should manage her budget short-fall while she’s working full time at his bank. Dimon said he didn’t know what he would advise the woman to do but he’d like to have a conversation with her and try to be helpful. Porter responded: “What I’d like you to do is provide a way for families to make ends meet. So that little kids who are six years old living in a one-bedroom apartment with their mother aren’t going hungry at night because they’re $567 short…” (See the YouTube video clip of the exchange below.)
Financial firms poised to be exempt from new global tax rules - Financial services companies are set to be exempt from a global plan to make multinational firms pay more tax to the countries where they operate, in a win for U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak.Negotiators in talks hosted by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have accepted Sunak’s proposal to ensure that financial firms, such as global banks with head offices in London, wouldn’t face additional tax burdens, according to people familiar with the discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are private.The Paris-based OECD is hosting a meeting Thursday as part of efforts to reach high-level consensus on the principles of the plan among more than 100 countries, following an accord among Group of Seven nations in early June. Whatever is decided will be considered by Group of 20 finance ministers in Venice next week, with broader agreement on the plan’s details likely to come later in the year.
Most big banks say they're ready for climate stress tests -Most big U.S. banks say their portfolios would withstand regulatory scrutiny of climate risk, even though the industry is still in the early stages of making the changes necessary to measure its exposure.In a recent Accenture survey of executives at the nation’s 50 largest banks, 61% of respondents said their institution would be prepared to comply with climate risk disclosures and scenario tests like those currently happening in the United Kingdom, while just 30% said they would not. But even the most committed banks will be challenged to find, analyze and model the non-financial data needed to show the climate risks in their own portfolios, risk experts say.
NCUA to distribute $865 million to resolve corporate credit union failures - The National Credit Union Administration will distribute $865.5 million to 1,800 credit unions to resolve the failure of three corporate credit unions in the wake of the financial crisis.The regulator will also end its Guaranteed Notes program and will continue to liquidate the program’s remaining assets and make further distributions when possible, it said in a Monday press release. The NCUA had previously made two other rounds of distributions to resolve failed corporate credit union accounts within the past year.
A government-run credit bureau? Lawmakers sharply divided over idea. - — House lawmakers and consumer advocates sparred on Tuesday over legislation that would create a public credit reporting agency that President Biden endorsed on the campaign trail last summer. The House Financial Services Committee held a hearing examining the current state of the U.S. credit reporting system, which is currently dominated by the private credit bureaus Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. Lawmakers debated legislation that would overhaul the system and create a public credit reporting agency, which would be housed within the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. “The big credit reporting agencies have skirted responsibility time and time again" to reform their practices, says House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters, D-Calif., citing rising consumer complaints and litigation. Yet Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, R-Mo., countered that "if you believe the government is going to make less errors than the private sector … you're either naive or misinformed, or worse.”
Fintech backed by NBA's Curry aims to help consumers build credit - A newly launched fintech called Kikoff aims to help consumers build or rebuild credit by offering a $500 line of credit that can only be applied to purchases of financial education products and services at its online store. The San Francisco-based startup, which launched to the public Wednesday after a six-month pilot, has raised $42.5 million in funding. Its backers include the NBA star Stephen Curry; Melissa Smith, CEO of the payments company Wex; and Teresa Ressel, former chief financial officer of the U.S. Treasury Department. Customers can use the credit to make purchases from Kikoff, which sells financial literacy and personal finance books and courses. The topics run the gamut from budgeting to starting a business and are priced starting at $10 apiece to help users keep their payments affordable and credit utilization low. Kikoff reports payment activity to the three credit bureaus so that customeers can build a credit history. Cynthia Chen, co-founder and CEO of Kikoff, says her product is different from other credit-building tools because it doesn't charge interest or fees.
What is FHFA's next move? — Following last week’s ouster of the Trump appointee atop the Federal Housing Finance Agency, mortgage industry officials and community advocates alike are hoping new leadership will rethink many of the policies the agency put in place last year that they say run counter to the missions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Acting FHFA Director Sandra Thompson — who was appointed by the Biden administration to run the agency last Wednesday after a Supreme Court ruling gave the president the authority to fire her predecessor, Mark Calabira, at will — is already facing pressure to reconsider many of Calabria’s hallmark achievements, including recent reforms to the government’s oversight of the companies. “I do hope there's a chance for course correction with new leadership,” said Doug Ryan, a senior fellow at Prosperity Now, a nonprofit consumer advocacy group. “I think there's an opportunity for this to support the larger housing goals of the Biden administration.”
CFPB allows foreclosures to resume, provides more borrower protections -Mortgage servicers can resume foreclosures on some borrowers under a set of rule changes by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau designed to help millions of struggling homeowners exiting mortgage forbearance plans.The CFPB issued a temporary final rule Monday that provides added borrower protections such as required outreach and loss mitigation reviews by servicers. But the agency essentially abandoned a proposal from April that would have required a pre-foreclosure review period, which some said imposed a foreclosure moratorium until 2022. "Let me be clear: Our final rule does not impose a foreclosure moratorium," acting CFPB Director Dave Uejio said on a conference call with reporters.
The Supreme Court keeps in place the moratorium on evictions. -The Supreme Court on Tuesday refused to lift a moratorium on evictions that had been imposed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in response to the coronavirus pandemic.The vote was 5 to 4, with Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justices Stephen G. Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Brett M. Kavanaugh in the majority.The court gave no reasons for its ruling, which is typical when it acts on emergency applications. But Justice Kavanaugh issued a brief concurring opinion explaining that he had cast his vote reluctantly and had taken account of the impending expiration of the moratorium.“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention exceeded its existing statutory authority by issuing a nationwide eviction moratorium,” Justice Kavanaugh wrote. “Because the C.D.C. plans to end the moratorium in only a few weeks, on July 31, and because those few weeks will allow for additional and more orderly distribution of the congressionally appropriated rental assistance funds, I vote at this time to deny the application” that had been filed by landlords, real estate companies and trade associations. He added that the agency might not extend the moratorium on its own. “In my view,” Justice Kavanaugh wrote, “clear and specific congressional authorization (via new legislation) would be necessary for the C.D.C. to extend the moratorium past July 31.”At the beginning of the pandemic, Congress declared a moratorium on evictions, which lapsed last July. The C.D.C. then issued a series of its own moratoriums.“In doing so,” the challengers told the justices, “the C.D.C. shifted the pandemic’s financial burdens from the nation’s 30 to 40 million renters to its 10 to 11 million landlords — most of whom, like applicants, are individuals and small businesses — resulting in over $13 billion in unpaid rent per month.” The total cost to the nation’s landlords, they wrote, could approach $200 billion.The moratorium defers but does not cancel the obligation to pay rent; the challengers wrote that this “massive wealth transfer” would “never be fully undone.” Many renters, they wrote, will be unable to pay what they owe. “In reality,” they wrote, “the eviction moratorium has become an instrument of economic policy rather than of disease control.”
Supreme Court Leaves Eviction Moratorium Intact As Roberts And Kavanaugh Join Liberals - While it has long been known that Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts is a CINO (conservative in name only), it may come as a surprise that one of Trump's own SCOTUS appointees, Brett Kavanaugh, sided with the three supreme court justices in a divided decision refusing to lift the moratorium on evictions implemented by the CDC during the covid pandemic and which is due to expire in any case at the end of July. The 5-4 vote had little practical value, and rejected calls by landlords and real-estate trade associations from Alabama and Georgia to block the moratorium while their challenge goes forward. They contend the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention exceeded its authority by imposing the ban. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh joined the court’s three liberals in the majority. Kavanaugh cast the pivotal vote, saying he was letting the ban stay in effect even though he thought the CDC had exceeded its power.“Because the CDC plans to end the moratorium in only a few weeks, on July 31, and because those few weeks will allow for additional and more orderly distribution of the congressionally appropriated rental assistance funds, I vote at this time to deny the application,” Kavanaugh wrote. One wonder how he would have voted if the moratorium was set to end at the end of the year, or next summer?
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May -Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 2.25% in May, from 2.38% in April. The serious delinquency rate is up from 0.89% in May 2020.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 5.27% are seriously delinquent (down from 5.44% in April). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (2% of portfolio), 9.09% are seriously delinquent(down from 9.33%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (96% of portfolio), 1.82% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.94%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Slightly Decreases to 3.91%" - Note: This is as of June 20th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Slightly Decreases to 3.91%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 3.93% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.91% as of June 20, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 2.02%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 5.13%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 1 basis point to 7.97%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 2 basis points to 4.03%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers declined 2 basis points to 4.14%.“The share of loans in forbearance declined for the 17th straight week, with small declines across almost every loan category,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The rate of forbearance exits slowed – as has been typical in mid-month reports – but the pace of new forbearance requests remained at a very low level of 4 basis points.”, “The steady improvement in the aggregate forbearance numbers is heartening, as it is evidence that improving economic conditions are allowing more homeowners to get back on their feet. However, we continue to closely monitor the number of forbearance re-entries, reflecting borrowers who exited forbearance but had to re-enter due to hardships. These re-entries accounted for 6.2 percent of loans in forbearance this week.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained the same relative to the prior week at 0.04%". Note: These deferral plans are very popular. Basically when the homeowner exits forbearance, they just go back to making their regular monthly payments, they are not charged interest on the missed payments, and the unpaid balanced is deferred until the end of the mortgage.
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased -- Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of June 29th. From Black Knight: Mild Forbearance Improvement as Quarterly Reviews Continue: As we mentioned last week, there were still more than 300,000 homeowners in forbearance whose plans were scheduled for review by the end of June. Well, of the roughly 146,000 plans reviewed for extension or removal over the past week, 44,000 homeowners left forbearance, while the plans of the other 102,000 were extended. All in all, we wound up with a net decline of 6,000 plans. Not overly impactful, but it does set us up nicely for what could be a larger improvement next week as some 218,000 plans were still scheduled for review by Wednesday, June 30. Our weekly snapshots run through Tuesday, though. As of June 29, our McDash Flash daily loan-level performance dataset showed 2.05 million homeowners – representing 3.9% of mortgaged properties – remaining in COVID-19 related forbearance plans.This puts the overall number of active plans down 145,000, a 6.6% decline from the same time last month with the rate of improvement picking up from 6% last week and 5.4% the week before. A 5,000 reduction in the number of active GSE forbearance plans and a 2,000 drop in FHA/VA plans were partially offset by a rise of 1,000 among portfolio and privately held mortgages. Plan starts continued to fall over the last seven days. In fact, last week saw the lowest total starts in five weeks (since the shortened business week of Memorial Day). There have been about 9% fewer starts over the last four weeks than there were in the preceding four-week period..
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.8% in April - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for February. Here is the opening of the press release: House prices rose nationwide in April, up 1.8 percent from the previous month, according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 15.7 percent from April 2020 to April 2021. The previously reported 1.4 percent price change for March 2021 was revised upward to a 1.6 percent increase. For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from March 2021 to April 2021 ranged from +1.2 percent in the West North Central division to +2.6 percent in the Mountain and Middle Atlantic divisions. The 12-month changes ranged from +13.0 percent in the West North Central to +20.6 percent in the Mountain division. “House prices recorded another monthly and annual record in April," said Dr. Lynn Fisher, FHFA's Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics. “This unprecedented price growth persists due to strong demand, bolstered by still-low mortgage rates, and too few homes for sale." The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 14.6% year-over-year in April --S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April ("April" is a 3 month average of February, March and April prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains Surged to 14.6% In April: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 14.6% annual gain in April, up from 13.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 14.4%, up from 12.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 14.9% year-over-year gain, up from 13.4% in the previous month.Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in April. Phoenix led the way with a 22.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego with a 21.6% increase and Seattle with a 20.2% increase. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending April 2021 versus the year ending March 2021. Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 2.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.9% and 2.1% respectively in April.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.6%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. In April, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments. “The National Composite Index marked its eleventh consecutive month of accelerating prices with a 14.6% gain from year-ago levels, up from 13.3% in March. This acceleration is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 14.4% and 14.9%, respectively). The market’s strength is broadly-based: all 20 cities rose, and all 20 gained more in the 12 months ended in April than they had gained in the 12 months ended in March. The 14.6% gain in the National Composite is literally the highest reading in more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data. Housing prices in all 20 cities rose; price gains in all 20 cities accelerated; price gains in all 20 cities were in the top quartile of historical performance. In 15 cities, price gains were in top decile. Five cities – Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, and Seattle – joined the National Composite in recording their all-time highest 12- month gains. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
House prices continue to surge, with affordability near its worst since the Great Recession - The FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes for May and April, respectively, were released this morning. Because housing affordability is very much an issue, let’s take a look. YoY the FHFA index is up 15.7%, and the Case Shiller national index is up 13.9%: Not shown, but recall that last week the median price for new single family homes was reported up 18.1% YoY for May, and for existing homes up 23.6% YoY. This is on par with their most drastic increases during the housing bubble. A quick estimate of how (un-)affordable housing is can be seen by dividing house prices by average hourly wages, i.e., how many hours of income does it cost to buy a typical house. Here’s a long term view of what all 4 indexes looked like normed to 1 as of May 2020: Note that existing home prices are only available to FRED from the NAR for the past 12 months. But it is quite clear that “real” wage-adjusted house prices are close to their most extreme measures during the bubble. Another type of estimate, for the typical monthly mortgage payment, can be obtained by multiplying the indexes by the prevailing 30 year mortgage rate (important note: this does not produce the actual monthly mortgage payment, but is a reasonably close estimate): Here the news is much less alarming, as the typical monthly mortgage payment, while higher than a year ago, is nowhere near as high as it was during the housing bubble. As a result, at 155.8, the NAR’s “housing affordability index” is close to its lowest (I.e., least affordable) reading since 2009, although it is higher than at any point during the housing bubble, when it was always below 150 and at its worst was just above 100: An important difference vs. the housing bubble is that there were many speculators in the market, buying simply on the expectation that prices would continue to rise, i.e., “everyone knows house prices only go up!” This time around there is no evidence of such speculation, although obviously there is some panic buying for fear of being “forever priced out.” We have already seen a downturn in sales. I do not believe this level of prices can be maintained for long.
Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "No Sign of Slowing", 16.2% YoY in May --The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released today. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: April 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: No Sign of Slowing: Mortgage rates remain near historic lows, a demographic wave of households aging into prime homeownership years continues to swell, and despite showing some signs of bottoming, the number of available homes for sale remains historically small, particularly given the elevated demand for housing. Prices have skyrocketed as a result, and price growth continues to set new record highs. What’s more, despite sharply rising prices, demand for homes remains very strong. Bidding wars for the relatively few houses available remain common and homes are going under contract at an increasingly fast pace. Inventory upticks in recent weeks suggest that a respite from these red-hot market conditions may be starting to form. But a return to a balanced market remains a long way off, and there are few, if any, signs that home price appreciation will start to subside anytime soon.Monthly and annual growth in May as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from April and Mary 2020 in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, July 27. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 16.2% in May, up from 14.6% in April.The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 16.5% YoY in April from 14.9% in April, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 16.1% YoY compared to 14.4% YoY in April.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 25, 2021.... The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 15 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage application volume fell to the lowest level in almost a year and a half, with declines in both refinance and purchase applications. Mortgage rates were volatile last week, as investors tried to gauge upcoming moves by the Federal Reserve amidst several divergent signals, including rising inflation, mixed job market data, strong consumer spending, and a supply-constrained housing market that has led to rapid home-price growth,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Purchase applications for conventional loans declined last week to the lowest level since last May. The average loan size for total purchase applications increased, indicating that first-time homebuyers, who typically get smaller loans, are likely getting squeezed out of the market due to the lack of entry-level homes for sale.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.20 percent from 3.18 percent, with points decreasing to 0.39 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With low rates, the index remains elevated.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 8.0% in May From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Bounce Back 8.0% in May -- Pending home sales rebounded strongly in May, reaching the highest reading ever for the month of May since 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four U.S. regions registered both month-over-month increases and year-over-year gains for pending home sales contract transactions for the month of May.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, rose 8.0% to 114.7 in May. Year-over-year, signings increased 13.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....The Northeast PHSI increased 15.5% to 98.5 in May, a 54.6% climb from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index grew 6.7% to 107.7 last month, up 7.8% from May 2020.Pending home sales transactions in the South rose 4.9% to an index of 135.5 in May, up 6.1% from May 2020. The index in the West increased 10.9% in May to 102.0, up 12.5% from a year prior.This was well above expectations of a 0.8% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in June and July.
Damage to Surfside building's concrete was accelerating in April -The president of the association that represents the collapsed Florida condominium building said the damage to the building's basement garage had “gotten significantly worse” and the concrete damage was “accelerating," according to a letter written last April, USA Today reported. In the letter obtained by USA Today, Champlain Towers South Condominium Association President Jean Wodnicki acknowledged that the tens of millions of dollars of needed repairs had become a source of frustration for the building's residents.On Monday, the death count rose to 11 people. Another 150 people remain missing.“We have discussed, debated, and argued for years now, and will continue to do so for years to come as different items come into play,” Wodnicki, who survived the collapse last week, wrote in a letter dated April 9.Wodnicki noted in her letter that conditions had worsened from when the association had hired an engineering firm to inspect the building in 2018. The engineers had found a “major error” in the building's design, including crumbling concrete columns in the garage area. The firm predicted that failure to address these errors would “cause the extent of the concrete deterioration to expand exponentially.”Frank Morabito, the engineering consultant who inspected the building in 2018, said he had found “abundant cracking and spalling of varying degrees” in the structures of the ground-floor parking garage.Wodnicki wrote in the letter that "indeed the observable damage such as in the garage has gotten significantly worse."“When you can visually see the concrete spalling (cracking), that means that the rebar holding it together is rusting and deteriorating beneath the surface,” she wrote.Wodnicki stated that much of the ground level would need to be pulled up due to how many of the repairs would need to be done underground. "When performing any concrete restoration work, it is impossible to know the extent of the damage to the underlying rebar until the concrete is opened up," she wrote. "Oftentimes the damage is more extensive than can be determined by inspection of the surface."
Fear Spreads As Another Miami Beach Condo Tower Deemed "Unsafe" --Haunted by the recent tragedy in Surfside, some residents of ocean-side apartments in South Florida have been searching for information about the structural integrity of their condominiums. The residents of a Collins Avenue building with prior warnings in Miami Beach said they are horrified about what they found.The fear started after Champlain Towers South, at 8777 Collins Ave., turned into the epicenter of heartbreak and grief on Thursday morning. Some of the residents of the Champlain Towers North and East decided to evacuate.Days following the incident, two studies on the 12-story residential structure came to light. One was a field study from 2018 by an engineering firm that discovered structural issues. Another study was from 2020 when scientists analyzed satellite data to find the tower sunk in the 1990s. On Monday, residents at Maison Grande Condominium, an 18-story building with 502 units, built in 1971, were worried about the safety of their building, according to WPLG Local 10. Photographs show rusted steel and cracked concrete pillars and ceilings in the parking garage of the building - a similar observation that was observed at Champlain South. City records show that five inspections determined the building is an "unsafe structure." Other warnings include the two-story parking garage and pool deck "have reached the end of their useful life and require repair, replacement," or "a combination thereof." One city official wrote in late 2020, "Structure with evidence of spalling concrete. Need to submit a report signed and sealed by [an] engineer to evaluate the structure together with methods of repairs." Near the building's entrance reads a red sign that warns: "unsafe structure" building violation notice. Here's a closer view of the red sign.
Where Does It End? -- 135 questions for those who shape and those who (sometimes) occupy New York City’s extreme upper skyline. WHY DO THESE BUILDINGS EXIST? Who, exactly, demands them? Is it the residents—a mix of oligarchs, finance titans, modern-day robber barons, obscene inheritors, post-socialist privatizers, mafiosos, money launderers, and avatars for anonymous bank accounts—who want to see more glass rectangles stretch higher toward the stars? Is it the developers and their investors, eyeing available swatches of land and sky to assemble into luxury skyscrapers, with each subdivision thereof selling in the millions? Is it the city, state, and federal politicians, planners, and policymakers who incentivize these stationary investment vehicles for mobile capital, hoping to grab some benefit—tax revenue, press buzz, the coveted “favorable investment climate”? Is it the architects and designers seeking to put their stamp on the city, preferably at slightly higher altitudes than their competitors, and with slightly more flair (or coolness, if that’s their calling card)? Is it the workers who build and service the buildings—and the union leaders who represent some of them—who understand the city’s political economy better than economists, and have pinned their futures to this asset class? How many individuals actually desire this mode of development? How might that number compare to the majority of people who demand—who desperately need—an entirely different built environment, meant to house them comfortably at costs commensurate with normal (i.e., pretty low) incomes? Does the demand for these ultra-luxury skyscrapers come primarily from people as such, or does it come more from capital in the aggregate? In other words, is it just that influential individuals desire absurdly unaffordable housing, or is it that the capitalist economy is currently configured in such a way as to require more of this mode of development? It’s both, right?
Construction Spending Decreased 0.3% in May -- From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:Construction spending during May 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,545.3 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised April estimate of $1,549.5 billion. The May figure is 7.5 percent above the May 2020 estimate of $1,437.7 billion.Private spending increased and public spending decreased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,203.3 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised April estimate of $1,206.8 billion. ...In May, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $342.0 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised April estimate of $342.7 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.Residential spending is 11% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation).Non-residential spending is 9% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently.Public construction spending is 5% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 30% above the austerity low in February 2014, but weak recently.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 28.7%. Non-residential spending is down 5.8% year-over-year. Public spending is down 8.7% year-over-year.Construction was considered an essential service in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors, but some sectors of non-residential have been under pressure. For example, lodging is down 23.2% YoY, multi-retail down 18.0% YoY, and office down 8.3% YoY. This was below consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase in spending, however construction spending for the previous months was revised up.
Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Sharply from Recent Peak, Up Solidly Year-over-year - Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME framing futures through June 30th. Lumber is currently at $722 per 1000 board feet. This is down from a peak of $1,733, but up from $448 a year ago.Lumber price are up 60% year-over-year.There are supply constraints, for example, sawmills cut production and inventory at the beginning of the pandemic, and the West Coast fires in 2020 damaged privately-owned timberland. The supply constraints are easing.And there has been a huge surge in demand for lumber.
Lumber prices have bottomed out, but are likely to stay double the historical average for at least the next 5 years, a lumber trader says Lumber price have probably found a bottom at current levels, but will remain higher than average for the next few years, a lumber trader told Insider. Stinson Dean, CEO and founder of Deacon Trading, expects lumber to trade above $1000 for potentially the next three to five years. The historical average is around $400, he said. "My argument is the new normal is going to be significantly higher than the old normal while others think we're going to go back to pre-COVID price ranges," Dean said. After an intense run-up in the beginning of the year, Lumber has fallen nearly 50% from May's record high of over $1,700 per thousand board feet. "Business has slowed dramatically. There's ample supply. So there's just not pressure on buyers to cover those needs...they've bought enough to cover whatever needs they do have," Dean said. He added that the current state of the lumber futures curve confirms his take that lumber prices have bottomed out. The curve can give an indication of the health of the underlying supply and demand market, he said. Lumber futures recently began trading in contango - a situation in commodities wherein the future price is higher than the spot price. For the past year, the futures curve was inverted and in backwardation, where the future price is cheaper. The backwardation and subsequent premium on front-month futures occurred because everyone needed lumber as soon as possible, and they were willing to pay whatever price for it, said Dean. "People didn't care about two months down the road, they only cared about right now because they were in the middle of a short squeeze. They had to get covered," he added.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 7% Compared to Same Week in 2019 - Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019. The occupancy rate is down 7.3% compared to the same week in 2019. Leisure (weekend) occupancy has recovered, but weekday (more business) is still down double digits. From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Occupancy Inches Closer to 70%: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy hit its highest level since late October 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through June 26.June 20-26, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 69.9% (-7.3%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$133.36 (-0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$93.19 (-7.8%)
In addition to occupancy reaching its highest point since the week ending 26 October 2019, ADR and RevPAR were the highest of the pandemic-era. Weekend occupancy surpassed the 2019 comparable for the second time in three weeks, while ADR was 13% higher than the corresponding weekend from June 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid. With solid leisure travel, the next two months should have decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel.
Shortage of truck drivers is behind fuel delivery delays, says GasBuddy analyst - Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CNBC on Wednesday that a shortage of truck drivers is causing fuel delivery disruptions at some gas stations."This is a labor challenge. There's no fuel shortage," De Haan said on "Power Lunch," explaining that refineries are "producing nearly all-time record highs in terms of gallons of gasoline this summer.""The problem is getting that gasoline the last leg of its journey from a local terminal to the gas station, and we're starting to see some of these delivery delays," he said.Temporary shortages have been reported at gas stations in southwest Missouri, Columbus, Ohio, and eastern Iowa, according to local media reports.According to National Tank Truck Carriers, the trucking industry is short at least 50,000 drivers. De Haan said it's been a "brewing problem" since 2017 that was accelerated by the Covid pandemic, when gasoline demand plummeted. Some companies let their truck drivers go, while other drivers took early retirement, De Haan said. Now, gas station chains are offering sign-on bonuses ranging from $5,000 to $15,000 to prospective drivers, he said.De Haan said the current fuel delivery challenges are different from the Colonial Pipeline outage last month, which, in Southeastern states such as Georgia and North Carolina, was followed by a jump in prices at the pumpand some stations running out of fuel.In this instance, De Haan said fuel delivery days related to trucking availability will not have a "meaningful" impact on the price of gasoline. However, oil production levels and "basically every other aspect of this recovering economy" are leading to higher prices, he said.The national average for a regular gallon of gasoline is currently $3.118ahead of the Fourth of July weekend, when tens of millions of Americans are expected to travel, according to AAA.That is up from $3.045 per gallon a month ago. It stood at $2.178 per gallon one year ago, according to AAA, when travel was still sharply curtailed due to Covid restrictions.De Haan said smaller gas station operators may find it more difficult than larger chains to navigate the current trucking landscape. "This is kind of a survival of the fittest, and those truckers that are delivering for third parties, they may find it more lucrative to go somewhere else and deliver gasoline, so there's kind of this fighting going on with the truck drivers that do exist," De Haan said. "Everyone's getting fooled and, unfortunately, for now, as the nation's gasoline demand continues to rise, this is going to be more challenging in the future."
June Vehicles Sales Decreased Sharply to 15.36 Million SAAR --The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for June this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 15.36 million SAAR in June 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 9.8% from the May sales rate, and up 18% from June 2020. This was well below the consensus estimate of 17.1 million SAAR.This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for June (red). The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.Since April 2020, sales have increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). Sales-to-date are down 1.3% compared to the same period in 2019.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 15.36 million SAAR.Sales in June were likely impacted by supply issues.
May Trade Deficit at $71.2B - The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions that go back several months. This report details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in May 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $69.1 billion in April (revised) to $71.2 billion in May, as imports increased more than exports. The previously published April deficit was $68.9 billion. The goods deficit increased $2.3 billion in May to $89.2 billion. The services surplus increased $0.1 billion in May to $17.9 billion. Today's headline number of -71.2B was better than the -71.4BInvesting.com forecast.
U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in May as Economic Rebound Fueled Demand for Imports – WSJ —The U.S. trade deficit widened in May, as American consumers and businesses stepped up purchases of imported products and materials amid a continued economic recovery. The foreign-trade gap in goods and services expanded 3.1% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $71.2 billion in May, the Commerce Department said Friday. Imports rose 1.3% to $277.3 billion, while exports increased 0.6% to $206 billion. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted a trade deficit of $71.4 billion in May. The gains in imports were fueled by purchases of industrial supplies such as crude oil, lumber, food and beverages as the U.S. economy opened up further from the pandemic-induced shutdown with the spread of vaccines. The growth followed a drop in April when disruptions to supply chains caused shipments into the U.S. to slow from a record pace set in March. “The trade deficit is poised to remain wide as the fiscally powered, consumer-driven recovery in the US runs ahead of the global economic rebound,” . Pharmaceutical preparations and foods were among the goods fueling the rise in exports. After a robust rebound from a deep but brief slump early last year, the recovery in exports has lost some momentum in recent months, as many economies around the world continued to struggle with the fallout from Covid-19. Trade in services picked up as people started traveling again. Travel spending in the U.S. by foreigners increased by $515 million in May, helping to expand services exports to $60.5 billion, the highest level since March last year. In contrast to the strong recovery in trade in goods, services trade has been slumped as pandemic restrictions kept many people from traveling and studying abroad. This has added to the overall trade deficit for the U.S., which generally runs sizable surpluses in services. Imports of services increased by $742 million to $42.6 billion, with overseas spending by American tourists growing. Economists and corporate executives say supply chain problems, including congestion at ports, have continued to restrain international commerce. Severe shortages of semiconductors have also affected production of automobiles, home appliances and other goods, weighing on trade. Exports of cars, trucks and auto parts fell by $546 million while imports fell by $172 million. “We continue to see lots of port congestion and very slow port operations and low truck power,” Brian Sondey said he expected congestion to last through early next year, as preholiday increases in international shipments start even before the current bottlenecks ease. Even as the trade deficit with the European Union and Canada expanded, the deficit with China decreased by $5.1 billion to $27.2 billion in May, due to a $5.2-billion drop in imports.
June data starts out mixed: manufacturing strong, housing stalls - June data started out this morning with the ISM manufacturing report. There was no big change from last month’s torrid pace. The overall index declined a very slight -0.6% to 60.6, while the leading new orders component declined by 1 to 66: Any number over 60 implies a very strong economy, so this report indicates that the manufacturing sector is still red hot. The last big May number, construction spending, was also reported, showing a definite cooling in the housing sector. Total spending actually declined a slight -0.3% from April, while the leading residential sector increased a slight 0.2%, even before taking into account inflation in housing materials: In short, we start out the month with one leading sector, manufacturing, continuing to be very positive, while one long leading sector, housing, shows evidence of stalling if not a peak.
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 60.6% in June -The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June. The PMI® was at 60.6% in June, down from 61.2% in May. The employment index was at 49.9%, down from 50.9% last month, and the new orders index was at 66.0%, down from 67.0%. From ISM: June 2021 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The June Manufacturing PMI® registered 60.6 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the May reading of 61.2 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 13th month in a row after contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 66 percent, decreasing 1 percentage point from the May reading of 67 percent. The Production Index registered 60.8 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the May reading of 58.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 92.1 percent, up 4.1 percentage points compared to the May figure of 88 percent and the index’s highest reading since July 1979 (93.1 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 64.5 percent, 6.1 percentage points lower than the May reading of 70.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 49.9 percent; 1 percentage point lower compared to the May reading of 50.9 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 75.1 percent, down 3.7 percentage points from the May figure of 78.8 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the May reading of 50.8 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 56.2 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point compared to the May reading of 55.4 percent. The Imports Index registered 61 percent, a 7-percentage point increase from the May reading of 54 percent.”This was below expectations. This suggests manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in June than in May.
May Markit Manufacturing: "Output growth eases as supply-chain disruption worsens" The June US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 62.1, unchanged from the final May figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in their latest press release: “June saw surging demand drive another sharp rise in manufacturing output, with both new orders and production growing at some of the fastest rates recorded since the survey began in 2007. “The strength of the upturn continued to be impeded by capacity constraints and shortages of both materials and labor, however, meaning concerns over prices have continued to build. “Supplier delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent yet recorded as suppliers struggled to keep pace with demand and transport delays hindered the availability of inputs. Factories were increasingly prepared, or forced, to pay more to secure sufficient supplies of key raw materials, resulting in the largest jump in costs yet recorded.“Strong customer demand in turn meant producers were often able to pass these higher costs on to customers, pushing prices charged for goods up at a rate unbeaten in at least 14 years. “Capacity needs to be boosted and supply chains need to improve to help alleviate some of the inflationary pressures. However, companies reported increasing difficulties filling vacancies in June, and raising COVID-19 infection waves in Asia threaten to add to supply chain issues.” [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012. Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (see our full article on this series here).
June Dallas Fed Manufacturing - This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for June. The latest general business activity index came in at 31.1, down 3.8 from 34.9 in May. All figures are seasonally adjusted.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:Texas factory activity expanded at a faster pace in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose 14 points to 29.4, a reading indicative of strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also pointed to accelerated growth this month.Expectations regarding future manufacturing activity pushed higher in June. The future production index rose nine points to 56.6, and the future general business activity index rose six points to 37.3. Other measures of future manufacturing activity also pushed further into positive territory. Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator.
June Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview - Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP. The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to their website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision. In December 2013, the monthly release of the CFMMI was suspended pending the release of updated benchmark data from the U.S. Census Bureau and a period of model verification. Significant revisions in the history of the CFMMI are anticipated." Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for June is 26, down from the previous month. Here is the same chart including the average of the five. Readers will notice the range in expansion and contraction between all regions.
Chicago PMI Plunges Most Since April 2020 "Soft' survey data has been doing what it does... surging ahead of actual "hard" data providing those who need it with proof that things are getting better.However, recent data has shown that soft survey data losing its lead and the latest Chicago PMI confirms that with the second biggest drop since 2015 (from 75.2 - the highest since 1973 - to 66.1)....Stagflation looms as prices accelerate and production and employment growth slows...
- Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion
- New orders rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion
- Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion
- Production rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion
- Order backlogs rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion
Airlines are not prepared for the surge in travelers because they don't have enough planes — or pilots to fly them -Travel is surging in the US and airlines are once again faced with shortages, but it's more than just pilots this time. Many US carriers shed older aircraft from their fleets in a cash-saving effort during the worst times of the pandemic. At the time, vaccines a distant dream and travel demand wasn't expected to rebound for years. "The airlines were being forced to make very complex decisions under enormous pressure," Henry Harteveldt, travel industry analyst and cofounder of Atmosphere Research Group, told Insider. "Key among them is: How do you bring your costs down to survive an approximately 96% decline in demand?" But Southwest Airlines, after accelerating the retirement of 737-700 aircraft in 2020, is now saying that the airline's current fleet won't be enough to support the carrier's business model in the upcoming years and could hinder expansion efforts. "We don't feel like we have enough airplanes for 2022 and 2023, and that's just doing what you know us to be famous for," Gary Kelly, Southwest's chief executive officer, CNBC, referring to its current business of mostly domestic flying.Now that demand is ramping up, airlines might find themselves without enough planes to keep up and Southwest isn't the only airline that shed planes during the pandemic. Delta Air Lines similarly parted with three fleet types including the McDonnell-Douglas MD-80/MD-90, Boeing 737-700, and Boeing 777-200 series of aircraft.Those aircraft now sit in storage facilities and bringing them back into service would be too great of an expense for airlines, according to Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis for Teal Group. New builds from manufacturers, including the Boeing 737 Max and Airbus A220, are preferable but come at a slower rate.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 364,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending June 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 364,000, a decrease of 51,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 4,000 from 411,000 to 415,000. The 4-week moving average was 392,750, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,000 from 397,750 to 398,750.This does not include the 115,267 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 111,778 the previous week.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 392,750.The previous week was revised up. Regular state continued claims increased to 3,469,000 (SA) from 3,413,000 (SA) the previous week. Note: There are an additional 5,935,630 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 5,950,861 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 5,261,991 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,274,108. Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.
New jobless claims stall, adding to the evidence that stalling vaccinations and case counts are having an economic effect --New jobless claims have been the most important weekly economic datapoint this year, as they have correlated strongly with vaccination progress. Unfortunately, that progress has largely stalled in the past month, and now new jobless claims appear to have stalled as well. This week new jobless claims declined 7,000 to 411,000, 37,000 higher than the pandemic low of 374,000 set two weeks ago. The 4 week average of claims also rose by 1,500 above last week’s pandemic low to 397,750. At the peak of the pandemic lockdowns, new claims were running 6 million to 7 million per week. Here is the trend since the beginning of last August: From late February into May, claims had trended down an average of roughly 100,000 per month. This had slowed to roughly 50,000 per month, indicating that the “opening” of the economy is getting nearer to an endpoint. As indicated above, since 5 weeks ago, the trend is now sideways. This also implies a sharp slowing down of net job creation from the last 3 months’ levels. The story is different for continuing claims, which are reported with a one-week lag, and lag the trend of initial claims typically by a few weeks to several months. These set a new pandemic low, falling 144,000 to 3,390,000. At the same time, over the past 3 months these have only declined about 10% from roughly 3,750,000: At least some of this decline *may* be due to many States’ termination of all extended jobless benefits due to the pandemic. A long term perspective shows that these are equivalent to the worst levels of most previous recessions, or early in the expansions, versus at 2,000,000 or below later in strong expansions: As I wrote two weeks ago and reiterated last week, “I think we are going to see two tracks going forward from here, as near-normalcy does return to the more vaccinated parts of the country, while attempts to return to normalcy fail in the laggard regions.” Last week I further wrote, “Over the next 6 to 8 weeks, these States [in the South and the mountain West with low vaccination rates] are ripe for a serious outbreak of the highly infectious new ‘delta’ variant of the disease,” which in turn is going to lead to many people “re-cocooning” themselves in those areas, and thus decreasing economic activity there. This will result in there being 2 separate economic tracks in regions of the US depending on vaccinations and new outbreaks.
ADP: Private Employment increased 692,000 in June - From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 692,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP® National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “The labor market recovery remains robust, with June closing out a strong second quarter of jobs growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “While payrolls are still nearly 7 million short of pre-COVID 19 levels, job gains have totaled about 3 million since the beginning of 2021. Service providers, the hardest hit sector, continue to do the heavy lifting, with leisure and hospitality posting the strongest gain as businesses begin to reopen to full capacity across the country This was above the consensus forecast of 600,000 for this report.The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 675 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in June. The ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.
First Look at June: ADP Says 692K New Nonfarm Private Jobs -This morning we have the ADP June estimate of 692K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, a decrease over the ADP revised May figure of 886K.The 692K estimate came in above the Investing.com consensus of 600K for the ADP number.The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 600K private nonfarm jobs gained and the unemployment rate to remain drop to 5.7%. Their forecast for the June new full nonfarm jobs is (the PAYEMS number) 700K.Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:“The labor market recovery remains robust, with June closing out a strong second quarter of jobs growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “While payrolls are still nearly 7 million short of pre-COVID19 levels, job gains have totaled about 3 million since the beginning of 2021. Service providers, the hardest hit sector, continue to do the heavy lifting, with leisure and hospitality posting the strongest gain as businesses begin to reopen to full capacity across the country.”Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.
June Employment Report: 850 Thousand Jobs, 5.9% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS:Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 850,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, professional and business services, retail trade, and other services....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 9,000, from +278,000 to +269,000, and the change for May was revised up by 24,000, from +559,000 to +583,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 15,000 higher than previously reported.
The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In June, the year-over-year change was 7.919 million jobs. This was up significantly - since employment collapsed in April 2020. Total payrolls increased by 850 thousand in June. Private payrolls increased by 662 thousand. Payrolls for April and May were revised up 15 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession". The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 61.6% in June, from 61.6% in May. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 58.0% from 58.0% (black line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased in June to 5.9% from 5.8% in May. This was above consensus expectations, and April and May were revised up by 15,000 combined.
U.S. Added 850,000 Jobs in June Labor Rebound – WSJ --The U.S. labor market recovery is accelerating after a spring lull.Employers added 850,000 jobs in June—the biggest gain in 10 months—and workers’ wages rose briskly, the government said Friday, both signs of robust demand for workers.The unemployment rate, derived from a separate survey of households, rose to 5.9% last month from 5.8% in May. That was in part because of a positive development: A modest number of Americans came off the sidelines and entered the job search, expanding the labor pool. A broader measure of unemployment that takes into account workers stuck in part-time jobs and those too discouraged to look for work fell sharply last month.Job growth lagged behind broader economic growth earlier this spring, with the economy adding 583,000 jobs in May and 269,000 in April. But big hurdles to hiring are starting to clear away. Rising vaccination rates, easing government restrictions on businesses and theexpiration of unemployment benefits in many states are stoking the latest growth.Workers are coming back to the labor market—albeit slowly—and employers, desperate to hire to serve a flood of customers, are dangling higher pay and other incentives such as signing bonuses. Hourly wages among private-sector workers rose 3.6% from a year earlier.Meanwhile, fears of the pandemic are easing. The number of workers who said they were prevented from looking for work because of the pandemic fell by 900,000 in June to 1.6 million. “In terms of the pace of hiring, this is probably close to max speed just given how quickly workers are coming back,” For investors, the gains were further evidence the economic recovery remains intact, so far fulfilling predictions by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.The solid hiring figures aren’t likely to fundamentally change an intensifying debate within the central bank on how soon to reduce its $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities. Some officials are eager to pull back on those purchases soon, while others have said the central bank doesn’t need to rush those decisions.Despite the latest job growth, the labor market faces challenges. There are still 6.8 million fewer jobs than in February 2020. The jobless rate remains above its pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. And while the labor force grew last month, the gain was modest.The share of adults working or looking for work was flat in June, remaining at 61.6%—1.7 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level—even though participation among prime-age workers, or those between 25 and 54 years old, rose from a month earlier.Many workers have retired rather than attempt to get their old jobs back; others remain fearful of getting sick. Some economists and businesses say many former workers are reluctant to return lest they lose enhanced unemployment benefits that Congress and state governments provided to help laid-off workers cover living expenses during the pandemic.
June jobs report: a tale of two very different surveys - but both far from full recovery --HEADLINES:
- 850,000 jobs added. Of these, 662,000 were private sector jobs, and 188,000 were government jobs, chiefly in education. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of only 128,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
- The total number of employed is still 6,764,000, or -4.4% below its pre-pandemic peak. At this rate jobs have grown this year, it will take another full year for employment to completely recover.
- U3 unemployment rate *rose* 0.1% to 5.9%, compared with the January 2020 low of 3.5%.
- U6 underemployment rate declined -0.4% to 9.8%, compared with the January 2020 low of 6.9%.
- Those on temporary layoff declined -12,000 to 1,811,000.
- Permanent job losers declined -47,000 to 3,187,000.
- April was revised downward by -9,000, while May was revised upward by 24,000, for a net gain of 15,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
- the average manufacturing workweek decreased -0.2 hours to 40.2 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI.
- Manufacturing jobs rose 15,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, manufacturing has still lost -481,000 jobs, or -3.8% of the total.
- Construction jobs fell -7,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, -238,000 construction jobs have been lost, or -3.1% of the total.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 2,500. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 33,100 jobs have been gained in this sector, or 3.4%.
- temporary jobs rose by 3,300. Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have still been -278,500 jobs lost, or -9.5% of all temporary jobs.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less declined by -42,000 to 1,981,000, which is -101,000 *lower* than just before the pandemic hit.
- Professional and business employment rose by 72,000, which is still 633,000, or about -2.9%, below its pre-pandemic peak.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.10 to $25.68, which is a 3.7% YoY gain. This is excellent news, considering that many low-wage workers have finally been recalled to work.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined by -0.1%, which is a loss of -4.4% since just before the pandemic.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.3%, which is a gain of 2.5% since just before the pandemic.
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, increased 343,000, but is still 2.2 million, or 12.9% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments gained 194,000, but is still -1,270,200, or -10.3% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Full time jobs decreased -183,000 in the household report.
- Part time jobs increased 408,000 in the household report.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons declined by 644,000 to 4,627,000, which is an increase of 229,000 since before the pandemic began.
SUMMARY: This month saw two very different components of the overall jobs report. The establishment survey, which tells us how many jobs were added or lost in various sectors, was very strong, while the household report, which tells us things about unemployment and underemployment, was very weak although still positive.There was lots of good news in the hardest hit sectors of leisure and hospitality and eduction, which were responsible for over half of all the job gains; while manufacturing, construction, and professional and business services were either weakly positive or even slightly negative. Wage growth also continued strongly, which is certainly good news.On the other hand, full time jobs as measured in the household report actually declined. But both permanent and temporary layoffs decreased, as did the newly unemployed, as did involuntary part time employment - all of which are very good.Putting everything together, this month’s report showed substantial and steady progress, but nowhere near enough to fully recover from the pandemic for many months to come (and that’s not taking into account what may await as a result of increasing COVID cases due to the “delta” variant).
Comments on June Employment Report –McBride - The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up. However, the participation rate was unchanged and the unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.9%. Leisure and hospitality gained 343 thousand jobs. In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 2.2 million jobs since February 2020. So leisure and hospitality has now added back almost 73% of the jobs lost in March and April 2020.Construction employment declined 7 thousand in June, and manufacturing added 15 thousand jobs. NOTE: State and Local education added 230 thousand jobs, seasonally adjusted. But this is a seasonal quirk - there were actually 413 thousand education jobs lost in June NSA, but that was fewer than normal for June, so seasonally adjusted this showed a gain. Earlier: June Employment Report: 850 Thousand Jobs, 5.9% Unemployment Rate. In June, the year-over-year employment change was 7.919 million jobs. This turned positive in April due to the sharp jobs losses in April 2020.This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the report today. This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions.In June, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 3.187 million from 3.234 million in May. These jobs will likely be the hardest to recover. 
Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The prime working age will be key as the economy recovers. The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in June to 81.7% from 81.3% in May, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 77.2% from 77.1% in May. From the BLS report:"The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 644,000 to 4.6 million in June. This decline reflected a drop in the number of persons whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions. The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons is up by 229,000 since February 2020. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.627 million from 5.271 million in May.These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 9.8% from 10.2% in May. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994 and close to pre-recession lows. This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.According to the BLS, there are 3.985 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 3.752 million in May. This does not include all the people that left the labor force. This will be a key measure to follow during the recovery. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations, and the previous two months were revised up by 15,000 combined. However, the headline unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.9%. There was a sharp decline in part time workers (for economic reasons), but the number of permanent job losers - and the long term unemployed - remain high.
Americans can go to Europe, but not Canada. Why is that border still closed? -Americans can now vacation in France and Spain, where roughly half the people have had at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. But with limited exceptions, they still cannot travel to Canada.In mid-June, to the frustration of many on both sides of the U.S. border, Canada announced that it was extending restrictions on nonessential travel until at least July 21. The ban includes travel by land, air and sea.Canada lagged behind the United States in distributing vaccines, but has quickly caught up. According to the government’s health database, 65 percent of the population has received at least one vaccine dose and 19 percent were fully vaccinated as of June 19, the latest date for which figures are available.The government has cited the spread of more transmissible coronavirus variants, such as Delta, as a reason for its caution.“Even a fully vaccinated individual can pass on Covid-19 to someone who is not vaccinated,” Prime Minister Trudeau said during a virtual news conference on June 18.The Canadian government plans to reopen the U.S. border in phases. On Monday, it will ease entry requirements for fully vaccinated Canadians, permanent residents and some eligible foreign nationals.But discretionary travel, including tourism, remains prohibited. Before the pandemic, Americans accounted for about 15 million of the 22 million overnight international visitors to Canada. They spent an estimated 11 billion Canadian dollars of the 23 billion dollars spent by all international visitors in 2019.
Disney test cruise delayed after 'inconsistent' COVID-19 test results - Disney Cruise Line said on Monday that it would delay its first test cruise since the COVID-19 pandemic shuttered the industry after a number of participants had inconsistent test results for the coronavirus. The Associated Press reported that the Disney Dream had been scheduled to sail on Tuesday with 300 employees who had volunteered to take part in a “simulation” cruise, but it was postponed until next month. This decision was made after a small number of employees had inconsistent COVID-19 test results, "which is considered positive by the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]," according to Disney Cruise Lines. The two-night test cruise had been approved by the CDC, the AP noted. Earlier in June, the CDC relaxed its guidance for cruises while still recommending that only fully vaccinated people travel on the ships. “In addition to testing, passengers who are not fully vaccinated should self-quarantine for 7 days after cruise travel, even if they test negative. If they do not get tested, they should self-quarantine for 10 days after cruise travel,” the CDC's updated guidance advised. A federal judge in Florida also ruled in June that the CDC could not regulate cruises, saying the agency's orders on the industry were an overreach of power. Judge Steven Merryday for the Middle District of Florida wrote in his ruling that the “CDC’s conditional sailing order and the implementing orders exceed the authority delegated to CDC.”
California restricts state-funded travel to five more states over LGBTQ legislation -- California Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) has announced that the state will be restricting state-funded travel to Arkansas, Florida, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia over the passage of legislation he said is discriminatory against LGBT Americans. Bonta pointed to GOP-backed measures targeting transgender girls on female sports teams at schools that have advanced in the five states in recent months as reason for the ban on Monday. Since 2016, California has prohibited state-funded travel to other states with laws considered discriminatory under legislation known as AB 1887. Bonta cited the law when announcing the new restrictions. “When states discriminate against LGBTQ+ Americans, California law requires our office to take action,” Bonta said in the statement on Monday, which also marked the anniversary of the start of the Stonewall riots. “These new additions to the state-funded travel restrictions list are about exactly that. It’s been 52 years to the day since the Stonewall Riots began, but that same fight remains all too alive and well in this country. Rather than focusing on solving real issues, some politicians think it’s in their best interest to demonize trans youth and block life-saving care,” he said. “Make no mistake: We’re in the midst of an unprecedented wave of bigotry and discrimination in this country — and the State of California is not going to support it,” he continued. As part of the law, state agencies, departments, boards and commissions are prohibited from authorizing state-funded travel to a state that has enacted legislation “authorizing, or repealing existing protections against, discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, or gender expression,” Bonta’s office said.
San Francisco Homeless Camp Costs $60,000 Per Tent, Per Year - It turns out "solving" the homelessness problem that has (along with sky high taxes) been plaguing San Francisco, driving residents out of the city (and state), is a costly endeavor. In fact, a homeless encampment run by San Francisco costs the city $60,000 per year, per tent, the NY Post reported this week. The city has six “safe sleeping villages,” which offer up tents and three meals a day to homeless people. They also provide security and washrooms. Mayor London Breed reaffirmed her commitment to find care for the homeless (and burn through tons of taxpayer cash), stating last week: “For those exhibiting harmful behavior, whether to themselves or to others, or those refusing assistance, we will use every tool we have to get them into treatment and services, to get them indoors. We won’t accept people just staying on the streets, when we have a place for them to go.”The news comes as San Francisco mulls renewing the program, which could cost about $57,000 per tent. There are currently about 260 tents, the report notes.The city is paying "about twice the median cost of a one-bedroom apartment for each tent", the report says. And the encampment is being funded by a 2018 business tax known as Proposition C.
Thousands of inmates sent home because of Covid may have to return to prison. - Some 4,000 federal offenders who were part of a mass release last year of nonviolent prisoners to help slow the spread of the coronavirus could soon return to prison — not because they violated the terms of their home confinement, but because the United States appears to be moving past the worst of the pandemic. In the final days of the Trump administration, the Justice Department issued a memo saying inmates whose sentences lasted beyond the “pandemic emergency period” would have to go back to prison. But some lawmakers and activists are urging President Biden to revoke the rule and use his executive power to keep the prisoners on home confinement or commute their sentences entirely, arguing that the pandemic offers a glimpse into a different type of punitive system in America, one that would rely far less on incarceration. Mr. Biden has vowed to make overhauling the criminal justice system a crucial part of his presidency, saying his administration could cut the prison population by more than half and expand programs that offered alternatives to detention. While the White House has yet to announce a decision about those on home confinement, the administration appears to be following the direction of the Trump-era memo. Andrew Bates, a spokesman for Mr. Biden, said in a statement that the president was “committed to reducing incarceration and helping people re-enter society,” but he referred questions about the future of those in home confinement to the Justice Department. The White House revisits the emergency declaration every three months, leaving the former prisoners in a constant state of limbo. The next deadline is in July.
Supreme Court won't hear school's appeal in transgender bathroom access fight - The Supreme Court on Monday declined an appeal from a Virginia school board in a long-running battle over bathroom access, effectively handing a victory to transgender student Gavin Grimm.The move came in an unsigned order, with two of the court’s more conservative justices, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, indicating they would have taken up the appeal.The development leaves in place a federal appeals court ruling in favor of Grimm, a transgender student who first sued his school district in Gloucester County, Va., in 2015 for access to the boys’ bathroom.Grimm’s victory in the lower court prompted Gloucester County’s appeal to the Supreme Court. The board had asked the justices to reverse the 2-1 decision by a panel of judges on the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals. The court’s denial to grant the appeal means that fewer than four justices agreed to take up the case. LGBTQ rights advocates hailed the court’s move on Monday.“Everyone has the right to high-quality, public education without the fear of being discriminated against simply for being brave enough to show up as you truly are,” said Alphonso David, president of the Human Rights Campaign.
US sees record school shootings since March as students struggle with return from pandemic - A record number of school shootings have taken place since the spring, a troubling sign as parents, teachers and students prepare for a return to full-time in-person learning this fall following the coronavirus pandemic. Since March, there have been 14 school shootings across the United States, the highest amount over a four month period since 1999,according to a Washington Post analysis published Thursday. More than a quarter-million children have been exposed to gun violence during school hours since the shooting at Columbine High School in Colorado, the Post reported. The most-fatal school shooting in U.S. history was in Parkland, Fla., at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, where 17 people were killed and more than a dozen others were injured. Most schools have remained only partially open for in-person instruction as elected officials work to reopen their communities, but with mass vaccination efforts fully underway and many American returning to work, students are expected back in classrooms on a more regular basis this fall. The first school shooting of 2021 occurred on March 1 at Watson Chapel Junior High, the Post reported, where ninth grader Daylon “DayDay” Burnett was shot and killed at school. Another incident on April 26 involved a 12-year-old sixth grader in Minnesota who told police he suffered from depression and wanted to commit suicide by cop after shooting up his school. “I hope my death makes more senses then my life,” the 12-year-old wrote in a notebook before carrying out the shooting, later telling police he did not want to take his own life because "that way it wasn’t a sin." Three people have been killed and eight have been wounded in school shootings so far this year, the Post analysis found.
As Delta variant spreads, Southern California schools plan full reopening of schools this fall - As California ended most of its COVID-19 restrictions this month, major school districts in the southern part of the state have loosened restrictions for summer school and are preparing for a full reopening this fall. June 15 marked the end of California’s tiered reopening system and most of the state’s COVID-19 restrictions, including mask mandates for vaccinated people and the removal of social distancing and capacity requirements at shops, restaurants, gyms, stadiums and other workplaces.Under conditions in which millions of people remain unvaccinated, including all children under 12 years old, and the more transmissible and lethal Delta variant is spreading throughout the state, these moves are criminal and will lead to an unknown number of infections and deaths throughout the region. Schools will still require masks indoors for students and staff, but the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) recently noted that “this may change pending updates for K-12 operational guidance from the CDC” for fall school reopenings. In Southern California, schools will be reopening with some restrictions, though most will not be enforced.Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), the largest district in California and second largest in the country with a student population of over 600,000, recently announced its plans for a full reopening this fall, with the semester starting on August 16. Classes will be in session five days a week for all grade levels.Reopening guidelines follow CDPH and Los Angeles Department of Public Health (LADPH) protocols on reopening, which have loosened already inadequate safety measures in schools. Three-foot social distancing will now be allowed indoors between students, and required COVID-19 testing of students will be subject to change for the fall “based on evolving pandemic conditions.” Funding for distance learning from the state ends on June 30, so the option for distance learning for families will be offered through outsourced online curriculum companies, including Apex Learning and Edgenuity.LAUSD reached a tentative agreement with the United Teachers Los Angeles (UTLA) on June 17 for the full reopening of campuses during the 2021-22 school year. The UTLA and the mainstream media have touted that 94 percent of the teachers, counselors, librarians, school nurses and other certificated employees voted to support the deal. However, close to 18,000 of its more than 30,000 members, or 60 percent, abstained from the vote, which the union held after the school year had ended and teachers and staff had begun their summer break. After forcing through the reopening of schools in April, the UTLA has committed yet another betrayal against teachers, students and their families, by pushing to fully reopen schools this fall. In a recent statement, UTLA President Cecily Myart-Cruz said: “With the approval of this agreement, schools across Los Angeles will have critical COVID safety protocols in place when we welcome students back to the joys of full-time in-person learning.”
From cocktails to charter schools: How Ohio's two-year budget will impact your life - The Columbus Dispatch -Ohio's $75 billion, two-year budget cuts income taxes and pays for schools, prisons and healthcare. But the massive, 3,300-page document does so much more. We’ve combed through those pages to find out what those changes mean for you.From those who developed a taste for cocktail delivery during the pandemic to college athletes looking to earn a little money off their popularity, there's something for everyone. So, if you ...
- Pay income taxes: Most Ohioans will get a 3% cut on their income taxes. People earning up to $25,000 a year won't pay any income taxes anymore. And the richest Ohioans will get a 16% income tax cut because the top bracket was eliminated.
- Homeschool your kids: You are getting a $250 tax credit for school supplies and other educational materials.
- Send your kids to certain private schools: If the school isn't chartered (doesn't adhere to state education requirements) you will be eligible for a $500 tax credit if you earn up to $50,000 a year or $1,000 for families who earn up $100,000.
- Get an EdChoice scholarship (school voucher): The annual amount your kid receives from Ohio’s school voucher program is going up. The K-8 scholarships will be $5,000 and $7,500 for high school students.
- Are you a famous college athlete in Ohio: You will be able to earn money off your name, image or likeness with a few caveats. You can't advertise for alcohol brands, tobacco, casinos or adult entertainment.
- Donate money: You can get a tax credit of up to $750 for donations given to scholarship granting organizations. These are often private schools or nonprofits that give out scholarships to students who attend them.
- Have kids in after-school care: You can get some money from the state providing your family earns less than 300% of the federal poverty level. The budget allocated $125 million over two years for educational savings accounts that fund after-school and enrichment programs for both public and private school kids.
- Get child care assistance: The amount you can earn and still participate in the publicly-funded child care program will increase to 142% of federal poverty (about $30,000 for a family of three) and 150% of federal poverty for families with special needs children.
- Want to open a community (charter) school: You are no longer limited by location. For the first time, Ohio will allow charters to operate anywhere in the state.
- Have a kid in public school: Ohio completely changed the way it funds K-12 schools in this budget. Advocates have been working on this new formula for years and say it's a better, more predictable way to fund public education.
- Have a high school student taking college courses: The parent and student will sign a permission slip that indicates they are aware of the potential for mature subject matter in College Credit Plus classes.
Who are the San Antonio, Texas, school board members who unanimously fired four teachers? - On May 10, the San Antonio Independent School District (SAISD) school board voted unanimously to fire Rachell Tucker, a dual language kindergarten teacher at Highland Park Elementary School in San Antonio, Texas. The firing took place after Tucker had advocated for increased safety measures and the halting of in-person learning at her school amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Three other teachers were fired at the same school board meeting, and at least nine other teachers in SAISD have been pressured to resign, with these other victimizations taking place for unspecified reasons. The firing of Tucker took place within the broader context of the bipartisan campaign to fully reopen schools and repudiate safety measure, pursued by the Biden administration, the corporate media, the teachers’ unions, and Texas’ Republican Governor Greg Abbott. For much of the portion of the school board meeting which allowed public comments (viewable here), colleagues and parents pleaded forcefully with the school board not to fire Tucker. The board started its deliberations on the firings at 11:21pm on Monday, May 10, after roughly an hour of closed session deliberations. The board unanimously terminated probationary contract teachers Elsa Aguilar Cordonejo, kindergarten teacher Rachell Tucker, and Rameshwar Pathak, at the end of 2020-21 school year, “in the best interest of the district.” Continuing contract teacher Jose Castro was terminated unanimously for “good cause.” Additionally, associate principal Dr. Mateen Diop’s contract was not renewed at the end of the 2020-21 school year. It is worth examining the backgrounds of the school board members responsible for unanimously victimizing these educators. According to the agenda, the following members where present when the board unanimously voted to terminate the four teachers: Patti Radle, Arthur Valdez, Debra Guerrero, Ed Garza, Steve Lecholop, Christina Martinez and Alicia Sebastian-Perry.
Nearly 100 COVID-19 cases linked to Illinois summer camp, officials say --Nearly 100 cases of coronavirus have been linked to a camp in Illinois where indoor masking was not required and vaccination status was not checked, officials said Monday, adding that one unvaccinated young adult required hospitalization. The majority of 85 cases involved teens who attended the mid-June camp session, although some involved adult staff members. Eleven additional cases were reported after several individuals who were at the camp also attended a nearby conference, the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) said. Among those cases, 70% occurred in unvaccinated people. The cases are concentrated in Schuyler and Adams counties, according to a press release. “Although all campers and staff were eligible for vaccination, IDPH is aware of only a handful of campers and staff receiving the vaccine,” the IDPH said. “The camp was not checking vaccination status and masking was not required while indoors. IDPH is reminding people about the importance of vaccination, including youth, as the Delta variant and other variants continue to spread.” The department director emphasized that while risk to children may seem small, “even a mild case” can result in long-term health issues. “Additionally, infected youth who may not experience severe illness can still spread the virus to others, including those who are too young to be vaccinated or those who don’t build the strong expected immune response to the vaccine,” Dr. Ngozi Ezike said.
The Biden Bounce: US Student Visa Applications From Pakistan Jump 37% in 2021 -Student visa applications from Pakistan have jumped 37% this year. Overall, the number of international student applicants has increased by about 9% this year from last year, according to data from the Common App, as of January 22, 2021. Most of the top “sending” countries are showing increases, with the notable exception of China, the leading source of international students. But that decrease has been more than offset by substantial increases from countries like India, Canada, Nigeria, Pakistan, the United Kingdom, and Brazil, according to a report in Forbes magazine. Although applications from China are down by 18% from last year, that loss is more than offset by large increases in applicants from several other countries; including India (+28%), Canada (+22%), Nigeria (+12%), Pakistan (+37%), the United Kingdom (+23%), and Brazil (+41%), according to Forbes. American colleges and universities have welcomed the trend. 43% of educational institutions are reporting an increase in their international student applications for the 2021-2022 academic year. The bounce is being attributed to declining COVID cases and the anticipation of the Biden Administration's liberal visa policy. President Joseph R. Biden has signaled his welcoming attitude toward foreign arrivals by signing a number of executive orders ranging from the revocation of Trump's "Muslim ban" to reinstatement of DACA protection. In the last pre-COVID academic year 2018-19, nearly 2,000 new F-1 students arrived in the United States from Pakistan, making it the 25th largest sending country. In the same academic year, China was the top sending country with nearly 100,000 new students enrolling in American universities. India was second with about 43,000 students. There were 7,939 Pakistani students studying on F-1 visa in the United States, ranking the country as the 22nd among countries sending students to the United States. China topped with nearly 370,000 international students in the United States while India was second with just over 200,000 students. Earlier in 2021, representatives from 13 top US universities visited Pakistan and met thousands of Pakistani students at college fairs in Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi as part of EducationUSA’s 16th South Asia Tour. They shared valuable information about their institutions’ academic programs, campus life, financial aid options, and application procedures, according to the US Embassy in Pakistan.
Student loan servicers fear 1-2 punch from CFPB, Education Dept. - Student loan servicers are bracing for tougher supervision and more monetary penalties from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau as the Biden administration tackles the thorny issue of massive student loan debt.Rohit Chopra, the CFPB’s first student loan ombudsman, will likely crack down on servicersonce he is confirmed by the Senate to lead the bureau, observers say. Chopra is widely expected to tag-team servicers with his old boss, former CFPB Director Richard Cordray, who is now the chief operating officer of federal student aid in charge of the Education Department’s $1.7 trillion portfolio of loans. "Chopra’s primary issue has been student loans,” said Nate Viebrock, an attorney with Viebrock & DeNittis. “He could use rulemaking like debt collection that is broad enough to address certain practices of student loan servicers.”
Falling Births? US Needs to Actually be Livable --Like most developed countries, the United States is experiencing cratering birth rates. If the replacement rate is 2.1 birth per woman, its current reported rate of 1.6 is well below that. In other words, depopulation will set in for America just as it has for the likes of Japan and others if births continue to crater and anti-immigrant sentiment scares off would-be migrants. Fewer birth and nobody being welcomed inevitably spells depopulation. Although the United States likes to portray itself in all sorts of self-aggrandizing ways--the promised land, shining city upon a hill, and all that jazz--the truth is that its livability is rather worse than any number of other places.A Bloomberg interview with demographer Lyman Stone has some interesting things to say on the matter. First, flexible work may not be the solution:I think policymakers still have this delusion that the path to high fertility is everybody having an awesome job with great benefits allowing them to be “flexible” for their family, but this just isn't reality. As jobs, even “family-friendly” jobs, turn into careers, and careers turn into essentially religious or spiritual vocations, family is deprioritized and birth rates decline. In empirical studies of surveys across nearly 100 countries, a co-author and I found that this effect was actually as strong for men as for women, so this isn't just about breadwinners. The boss in the movie “Elf” is the bad guy because as far as a child is concerned, a parent's work is always the biggest competition for that parent's mental and emotional energy. Another observation is that Trumpian racists tend to gain favor as birth rates fall, which obviously has ominous portents:Completing this downward spiral of falling birth rates mobilizing far-right ultra-racist groups is that low birth rates tends to quash innovation, too: America with all its problems has too far to go in fixing its broken society. It won't become much more livable anytime soon, so expect its birth rates to continue stagnating.
J & J Agrees to Pay New York $230 Million to Settle Opioids Lawsuit; Global Settlement Soon? -Jerri-Lynn Scofield -- New York State Attorney General (AG) Letitia James yesterday announced a $230 million settlement agreement with Johnson & Johnson (J & J) of opioids claims, shortly before a trial was scheduled to begin on Tuesday in Long Island.From the press release issued by JamesToday’s agreement also makes enforceable a bar stopping J&J and all of its subsidiaries, predecessors, and successors from manufacturing or selling opioids anywhere in New York, and acknowledges Johnson & Johnson’s exit from the opioid business nationally.The opioids industry faces more than 3,000 lawsuits throughout the country for its role in fomenting prescription and street opioids use, according to the NYT. These include actions by the Department of Justice; numerous state AGs, cities, and counties; and a plethora of private lawsuits. A bench trial in Oklahoma concluded with a $572 verdict against J & J in August 2019, as I wrote in Judge Issues $572 Million Verdict Against J & J in Oklahoma Opioids Trial: Settlements to Follow? Four companies settled with two Ohio counties on the very day a bellwether trial was to have begun in October 2019, as I wrote in Four Companies Settle Just Before Bellwether Opioids Trial Was to Begin Today in Ohio. Opioids litigation stalled during the pandemic, as was the case with most legal proceedings across the United States, with courts closed and trials delayed. Opioids trials are now in progress in California, where four drugmakers are the defendants, and in West Virginia, where drug distributors are the targets.J & J opted to settle just days before a key trial is scheduled to begin on Tuesday on Long Island. The New York trial targets multiple defendants, along the entire opioids supply chain and the trial will now go forward without the participation of J & J. It will also be the first opioids case to be heard by a jury.
CRISPR Infusion Edits Genes Directly in Humans - The promise of gene therapy may finally be realized.I’ve been a PhD geneticist and molecular biologist for nearly 40 years. During that time, I’ve seen the cloning of many human genes for which inherited diseases were known (e.g., cystic fibrosis, Huntingtons, Duchenne/Becker muscular dystrophy). Each paper reporting the gene cloning concluded with an obligatory paragraph noting that this opened the door to gene therapy.Sadly, the promised gene therapies have lagged decades behind the discovery and cloning of the affected genes. Instead, most of the progress since cloning has been in diagnostics: we could tell you whether or not you carried a lethal mutation and if so, when and how you would die. Many patients refused to be tested, since nothing could be done anyway.The rate-limiting step in gene therapy turns out not to be cloning of the gene in question or understanding how and where it is expressed. The challenge has been to deliver the therapy to the proper tissue in therapeutic quantities.CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing could finally be opening the door to the long-promised genetic therapeutics. There are dozens of clinical trials going on now using this transformative technology to conditions like inherited blindness and sickle cell disease. The latest surprise is that CRISPR genome therapy can be targeted to a solid organ by injection into peripheral blood circulation:“The NTLA-2001 findings . . . are the “first-ever clinical data suggesting that we can precisely edit target cells within the body to treat genetic disease with a single intravenous infusion of CRISPR,” noted John Leonard, MD, president and CEO of Intellia Therapeutics, which co-sponsored the trial with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. “Solving the challenge of targeted delivery of CRISPR-Cas9 to the liver, as we have with NTLA-2001, also unlocks the door to treating a wide array of other genetic diseases with our modular platform, and we intend to move quickly to advance and expand our pipeline,” Leonard said in a statement.” via In a First, CRISPR Infusion Edits Genes Directly in Humans, MedPage Today, Judy George
Health Insurance Tricks and Traps: Using Cheap at Home Colon Cancer Test Exposes Insureds to Big Colonoscopy Bill -- Yves Smith -A new CBS story does a public service by alerting consumers to the financial, as opposed to health risks, of using a heavily-promoted at home colon cancer screen, Cologuard. The wee problem with this account is that it doesn’t being to explain the fact that colonoscopies are overprescribed in the US, and that even in normal circumstances, they represent a financial minefield. Let’s first turn to the CBS story:A popular home test to screen for colon cancer has come with an unexpected bill for some people — leading to fears they may put off life-saving treatment. Americans may be used to seeing commercials for Cologuard, an at-home test advertised as a way to screen for colon cancer at home instead of the much-more involved process of colonoscopy. Experts say it is a good screening tool, but some users have said they were faced with a high bill.CBS then turns to the sad tale of Lianne Bryant from Missouri, who saw a Cologuard commercial and called her insurer to confirm that the test would be free. She sent in the test and got a positive result. That’s when things got messy:Bryant ended up needing a colonoscopy after all, but was relieved to get a negative result.Then the bills began arriving.“I start getting statements from my hospital saying that I have a balance of $1,900,” Bryant said. “I’m thinking, well, I certainly don’t owe that much. I mean, that’s not possible.”…Colonoscopies are provided at no cost to most people over age 45.Under the Affordable Care Act, only routine screening tests are covered, and because Bryant’s Cologuard result was positive, her colonoscopy was coded as a “diagnostic” test, which was not fully covered by her insurance.She would have been fully covered if she had not used Cologuard first.“I am mad because I pay so much every month for this insurance,” Bryant said. “I just feel like I’m really getting raked over.”CBS News surveyed 11 of the largest health insurers in the U.S. to see what they would do in situations like Bryant’s. Seven did not respond. The four who did said coverage decisions vary, and how much a consumer will pay depends on how doctors code the colonoscopy procedure. The trap for Bryant is that under the Affordable Care Act, a list of preventive care services, including colonoscopies for older patients, are covered at zero patient cost.1 However, what this article misses is those supposedly free colonoscopies often aren’t. What is free is the doctor having a look and seeing if anything appears amiss. But clipping polyps isn’t covered and that part will lead to a bill. So it isn’t clear if the $1900 was just for the inspection or whether it included specimen removal. The median cost for a colonoscopy in St. Louis is $1600, so it’s not possible to make an informed guess either way based on price alone.
Covid Pandemic Causes the Biggest Drop in U.S. Life Expectancy --Black and Brown Americans suffer the most in biggest U.S. drop in life expectancy since WWII, Modern Healthcare, June 2021. The advent of Covid, lack of medical access, and subsequent resistance to vaccinations has played out in a regression in life expectancy. The regression hit the hardest in minorities. That is not to say, the white majority did not experience a regression either . . . a lesser regression. The author points to economic disparity accentuating “the decades of difference existing in the country between the wealth and health of Black and Brown Americans when compared to white Americans.” The stage was set.The Coronavirus pandemic has killed an approximate 600,000 in the US. It has also sickened another 3.4 million with longer range persistent symptoms not easily healed over time. The Covid pandemic was devastating for vulnerable people resulting in the loss of jobs, homes and future opportunities. Millions of people are finding themselves living a sicker life and possibly dying younger. Caused by poverty, hunger and housing insecurity mostly brought about by Covid -19. And it still is not over. The pandemic will also accentuate the decades of difference existing in the country between the wealth and health of Black and Brown Americans when compared to white Americans. New research published in the BMJ details how wide the gap has grown. Life expectancy across the US decreased by ~2 years from 2018 to 2020. It is the largest decline since 1943 when American troops were dying in World War II. While white Americans life span regressed 1.36 years, Black Americans life span lost 3.25 years, and Hispanic Americans worse regressing 3.88 years. Life expectancy typically can vary by a month or two from year to year. Losses of three years are classified as being “pretty catastrophic,” according to Commonwealth University professor Dr. Steven Woolf, the lead author of the study.The two years studied revealed;
- the average loss of life expectancy in the U.S. being almost nine times greater than the average in 16 other developed nations. Residents of those countries are expected to live 4.7 years longer than Americans.
- The disparity in longevity between the US and other countries reveals Americans died not only in greater numbers but at younger ages during the two year period.
- U.S. mortality rate spiked by nearly 23% in 2020, when there were roughly 522,000 more deaths than expected. Not all of these deaths were attributable directly to covid-19. Fatal heart attacks and strokes both increased in 2020, at least partly fueled by delayed treatment or lack of access to medical care,
- More than 40% of Americans put off treatment during the early months of the pandemic. Hospital capacity was limited. Going into a medical facility seemed risky. Without prompt medical attention, heart attacks can cause congestive heart failure; delaying treatment of strokes raises the risk of long-term disability.
Young Americans are dying at rates not seen since 1953 - A new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that approximately 19 percent more Americans died in 2020 than in 2019. Researchers also discovered that mortality rates for young adults aged 25 to 34 have skyrocketed in the last decade, reaching levels not seen since 1953. The year-on-year increase in the mortality rate among young Americans is the largest since 1918, when deaths rose by 30 percent amid the Spanish Flu pandemic. Mortality rates for children and those 65 and older had been in steady decline for the last century until the COVID-19 pandemic, which halted this progress. The mortality rates for those aged 55-64 rose slightly before the coronavirus pandemic, but the 45 to 64 age group still saw a general decline in mortality rates until 2020. Due to improvements in medical science, the mortality rates for infants have declined spectacularly in recent decades, with infant deaths moving from the group with the highest mortality rate toward the middle of the pack. However, infant mortality in the US has not fallen as quickly as rates in other developed countries. Children aged 5 to 14 have always regularly held the lowest mortality rate, but the decline has stalled in the last decade. According to the report, those aged 25 through 34 have seen the least improvement of all age groups in recent decades, dying at about the same rate in 2020 as they did in 1953. From 2010 through 2019, death rates among this age group rose by 25.2 percent. This increase, already far worse than that of any other age group in that period, was followed up in 2020 by a staggering 24.5 percent one-year increase, which made for a 55.8 percent rise since 2010. Based on data going back to 1990, the report documents a public health crisis sweeping the American workforce. The downward trend was prevalent before the pandemic arrived, but working-age Americans have been deeply affected by the pandemic, the report noted. “We’re losing more and more Americans in the prime of their lives, in their most productive years, and in their parenting years,” wrote Kathleen Mullan Harris, a sociology professor at the University of North Carolina and chair of the committee that wrote the report. “Our committee was stunned by this mounting crisis, which will only get worse. The most troubling themes in our report—higher mortality than our peer countries; major racial and ethnic, socio-economic, and geographic disparities; lack of access to health insurance and care—have all been exacerbated by the pandemic” Harris said. Researchers determined the rising death rate for adult workers was driven by a sharp increase in deaths from drug overdoses, alcohol, suicide, and cardiometabolic conditions. Drug overdoses have been the primary driving factor, with researchers attributing most of the increase in overdose deaths since 2013 to the ongoing opioid pandemic that claims the lives of thousands each year. However, suicide rates also rose from the mid-2000s to the mid-2010s at a concerning rate.
Study finds sign of long-lasting protection from COVID-19 vaccines - The COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna produce a "persistent" immune response and give a sign of long-lasting protection, a new study finds. The study is a positive development in the discussion around whether booster shots of the vaccines will be needed and when, though there has not been a definitive answer to that question yet. The study published in the journal Nature on Monday centers on what are known as germinal centers, what Ali Ellebedy, the study's senior author and an associate professor at Washington University in St. Louis, describes as "boot camps for immune cells." The study found that those training grounds in the body for immune cells were still active 15 weeks after the first dose of vaccine. “Germinal centers are the key to a persistent, protective immune response,” Ellebedy said in a statement. “Germinal centers are where our immune memories are formed. And the longer we have a germinal center, the stronger and more durable our immunity will be because there’s a fierce selection process happening there, and only the best immune cells survive." Overnight Health Care: Study finds sign of long-lasting protection... The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Goldman Sachs - Biden muddies... "We found that germinal centers were still going strong 15 weeks after the vaccine’s first dose," he added. "We’re still monitoring the germinal centers, and they’re not declining; in some people, they’re still ongoing. This is truly remarkable.” One key wild card in the discussion of booster doses is what variants of the virus develop. So far, the vaccines have held up well against new variants of the virus, including the highly transmissible delta variant that is on the rise in the United States. But if a new variant develops that is more resistant to the current vaccines, that could prompt a need for booster doses, possibly with a modified vaccine designed to fight the new variant.
Researchers pinpoint possible sign you have COVID-19 after being vaccinated - With most Americans vaccinated, the number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths are falling across the country. But, in rare cases, some are still testing positive for COVID-19 even though they are vaccinated. So, which symptoms should you monitor to see if you have COVID-19 even with the vaccine? Researchers with the ZOE COVID Symptom Study have tracked COVID-19 symptoms from those with and without the vaccine and found that sneezing more than usual can be a sign of COVID-19, but only for people with the vaccine. The ZOE COVID Symptom Study app was created by doctors and scientists at Massachusetts General Hospital, the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, King’s College London and Stanford University School of Medicine — along with ZOE, a health science company. "Our data shows that people who had been vaccinated and then tested positive for COVID-19 were more likely to report sneezing as a symptom compared with those without a jab," researchers wrote. But, they added: "it’s important to remember that the link between sneezing and COVID-19 isn’t very strong so you should stay alert to the 20 symptoms of the disease, whether or not you’ve been vaccinated."Researchers say that sneezing is not typically a symptom of COVID-19 and is more likely a sign of a cold, flu or allergies. The vaccines do not ensure complete protection against COVID-19. Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are about 95 percent effective against symptomatic COVID-19; Johnson & Johnson is around 66 percent. Less than 1 in 10,000 people so far have experienced a "breakthrough case" in the United States, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say such cases are to be expected.Experts with the ZOE COVID Symptom Study say people with the vaccine who do contract COVID-19 "experience the same kinds of symptoms as unvaccinated people do, but their illness is milder and shorter" — or they don't have symptoms at all.Sneezing spreads the virus as it travels into the air. "Sneezing a lot could be a potential sign that someone vaccinated has COVID-19 and, however mild, should take a test and self-isolate to protect their friends, family and colleagues," researchers note.
Mixing Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines provides strong protection, according to a preliminary study. - Early results from a British vaccine study suggest that mixing different brands of vaccines can provoke a protective immune response against Covid-19. In the trial, volunteers produced high levels of antibodies and immune cells after getting one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and one dose of the AstraZeneca-Oxford shot. Administering the vaccines in either order is likely to provide potent protection, Dr. Matthew Snape, a vaccine expert at the University of Oxford, said at a news conference on Monday. “Any of these schedules, I think could be argued, would be expected to be effective,” he said. Dr. Snape and his colleagues began the trial, called Com-COV, in February. In the first wave of the study, they gave 830 volunteers one of four combinations of vaccines. Some got two doses of either Pfizer or AstraZeneca, both of which have been shown to be effective against Covid-19. Others got a dose of AstraZeneca, followed by one of Pfizer, or vice versa. For the first wave of volunteers, the researchers waited four weeks between doses. Studies have found that the AstraZeneca vaccine provides stronger protection if the second dose is delayed for up to 12 weeks, so the researchers are also running a separate 12-week trial which should deliver results next month. The researchers found that volunteers reported more chills, headaches and muscle pain than people who get two doses of the same vaccine. But the side effects were short-lived. Dr. Snape and his colleagues then drew blood to measure the immune response in the volunteers. They found that those who got two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech produced levels of antibodies about 10 times as high as those who got two doses of AstraZeneca. Volunteers who got Pfizer followed by AstraZeneca showed antibody levels about five times as high as those with two doses of AstraZeneca. And volunteers who got AstraZeneca followed by Pfizer reached antibody levels about as high as those who got two doses of Pfizer.
A third dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine is found to boost immune response.- A third dose of the Covid-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford generated a strong immune response in clinical trial volunteers, Oxford researchers reported on Monday. The finding indicates that the AstraZeneca vaccine could be an option should third shots end up being needed, for example, to extend immunity. To date, the vaccine has been given as two doses, typically between four and 12 weeks apart. The new data, detailed in a preprint manuscript that has not yet been peer reviewed, came from 90 study volunteers in Britain who were among the earliest to receive the shots in a clinical trial last year. This past March, they were given a third dose, roughly 30 weeks after their second. Laboratory analyses showed that the third dose increased levels of antibodies to the virus in the volunteers to a point higher than seen a month after their second dose — an encouraging sign that the third shot would be likely to bring greater protection if the effectiveness of two doses waned over time. “We do have to be in a position where we could boost if it turned out that was necessary,” Prof. Andrew Pollard, an Oxford researcher who has led studies of the vaccine, said in a news conference on Monday. “I think we have encouraging data in this preprint to show that boosters could be used and would be effective at boosting the immune response.” Scientists and policymakers do not yet know whether booster shots may be needed. Scientists reported Monday that the vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna set off a persistent immune reaction in the body that may protect against the coronavirus for years, but it isn’t clear if the same is happening with other vaccines, including AstraZeneca. Emerging coronavirus variants could also accelerate the need for booster shots. If third shots are deemed necessary in the coming months, their availability could be severely limited, especially in poorer countries that are lacking enough supply to give first doses to their most vulnerable citizens.
Johnson & Johnson says its vaccine protects against the Delta variant. - The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is effective against the highly contagious Delta variant, even eight months after inoculation, the company reported on Thursday — a reassuring finding for the 11 million Americans who have gotten the shot.The vaccine showed a small drop in potency against the variant, compared with its effectiveness against the original virus, the company said. But the vaccine was more effective against the Delta variant than the Beta variant, first identified in South Africa — the pattern also seen with mRNA vaccines like those made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna.Antibodies stimulated by the Johnson & Johnson vaccine grow in strength over time, researchers also reported.The results were described in a news release, and the company said that both studies had been submitted for online publication on Thursday. One of those studies has been accepted for publication in a scientific journal. Both studies are small, and the researchers said they had released the results early because of high interest from the public.The intense discourse about Delta’s threat has left even people who are vaccinated feeling anxious about whether they are protected. The variant, first identified in India, is much more transmissible than earlier versions of the virus, and its global spread has prompted new restrictions from Ireland to Malaysia. In the United States, the variant now accounts for one in four new cases. Public health officials had said the vaccines authorized in the United States worked against all existing variants, but the data was mostly based on studies of the mRNA vaccines.
Worried by the Delta variant, W.H.O. officials urged vaccinated people to keep wearing masks.- World Health Organization officials, concerned about the easing of precautions meant to stop the spread of the coronavirus even as the most contagious variant to date has emerged, have urged even fully vaccinated people to continue wearing masks and to keep taking other measures to prevent infection.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on the other hand, told fully vaccinated Americans in May that they no longer needed to wear masks indoors or to maintain a distance of six feet from other people. The agency also eased advice about testing and quarantine after suspected exposure to the virus.Asked on Monday about the new cautions expressed by the W.H.O. — the world’s largest public health organization — a C.D.C. spokesman pointed to the existing guidance and gave no indication it would change.A highly infectious form of the virus, called the Delta variant, was first detected in India and has been identified in at least 85 countries. In the United States, where its prevalence has doubled in the last two weeks, the variant is responsible for one in every five Covid-19 cases. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease doctor, has called it “the greatest threat” to eliminating the virus in the United States.The rise of new variants “makes it even more urgent that we use all the tools at our disposal to prevent transmission,” including consistent use of both vaccination and public health and social measures, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the W.H.O., said at a news briefing on Friday.Dr. Mariângela Simão, the W.H.O.’s assistant director-general for access to medicines, vaccines and pharmaceuticals, emphasized at the briefing that even vaccinated people should continue to consistently wear masks, avoid crowds and maintain social distance from others, make sure they are in well-ventilated spaces, wash hands frequently, and avoid sneezing or coughing around other people. “What we’re saying is, ‘Once you’ve been fully vaccinated, continue to play it safe, because you could end up as part of a transmission chain.’ You may not actually be fully protected,”
WHO urges fully vaccinated people to continue to wear masks as delta Covid variant spreads - The World Health Organization on Friday urged fully vaccinated people to continue to wear masks, social distance and practice other Covid-19 pandemic safety measures as the highly contagious delta variant spreads rapidly across the globe."People cannot feel safe just because they had the two doses. They still need to protect themselves," Dr. Mariangela Simao, WHO assistant director-general for access to medicines and health products, said during a news briefing from the agency's Geneva headquarters."Vaccine alone won't stop community transmission," Simao added. "People need to continue to use masks consistently, be in ventilated spaces, hand hygiene ... the physical distance, avoid crowding. This still continues to be extremely important, even if you're vaccinated when you have a community transmission ongoing."The health organization's comments come as some countries, including the United States, have largely done away with masks and pandemic-related restrictions as the Covid vaccines have helped drive down the number of new infections and deaths.The number of new infections in the U.S. has held steady over the last week at an average of 11,659 new cases per day, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Still, new infections have been plummeting over the last several months.WHO officials said they are asking fully vaccinated people to continue to "play it safe" because a large portion of the world remains unvaccinated and highly contagious variants, like delta, are spreading in many countries, spurring outbreaks.The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that about half of adults infected in an outbreak of the delta variant in Israel were fully vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, prompting the government there to reimpose an indoor mask requirement and other measures."Yes, you can reduce some measures and different countries have different recommendations in that regard. But there's still the need for caution," Dr. Bruce Aylward, a senior advisor to the WHO's director-general, said at the briefing. "As we are seeing, there are new variants emerging."The WHO said last week that delta is becoming the dominant variant of the disease worldwide.WHO officials have said the variant, first found in India but now in at least 92 countries, is the fastest and fittest coronavirus strain yet, and it will "pick off" the most vulnerable people, especially in places with low Covid vaccination rates.
Covid Vaccine Whack-a-Mole? -- by Yves Smith - From early on, we pointed out that the officialdom in the US was wagering heavily on magic Covid vaccines as the solution to the pandemic. They made that position explicit when the CDC went into “Mission Accomplished” mode and gave the public license to stop wearing masks if they were fully vaccinated. Not only was that decision risky given the proportion of the population that had gotten the needed jabs was under 50%, but it also gave the refusniks, as the wags on Twitter put it, to declare that they identified as vaccinated. Our Covid brain trust continues to be of the view that combating Covid will require a multi-pronged approach, including treatments like antivirals. By contrast, the vaccine boosters argue that mRNA vaccines can be developed so rapidly, in a week, that it will be easy to fire up new versions to beat back new variants. But even so, approval, manufacture, distribution and persuading people to get another shot all take time, as in months. GM has sounded some cautionary notes, such as the vaccines being less effective on the immuocompromised and the elderly. For instance, from the abstract of this paper: Here we assessed humoral and cellular immune responses following vaccination with mRNA vaccine BNT162b22 in elderly participants prospectively recruited from the community and younger health care workers. Median age was 72 years and 51% were females amongst 140 participants. Neutralising antibody responses after the first vaccine dose diminished with increasing age, with a marked drop in participants over 80 years old. Sera from participants below and above 80 showed significantly lower neutralisation potency against B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1. variants of concern as compared to wild type. Those over 80 were more likely to lack any neutralisation against VOC compared to younger participants following first dose. The adjusted odds ratio for inadequate neutralisation activity against the B.1.1.7, P.1 and B.1.351 variants in the older versus younger age group was 4.3 (95% CI 2.0-9.3, p<0.001), 6.7 (95% CI 1.7- 26.3, p=0.008) and 1.7 (95% CI 0.5-5.7, p=0.41). Binding IgG and IgA antibodies were lower in the elderly, and frequency of SARS-CoV-2 Spike specific B-memory cells was higher in elderly responders versus non-responders. We observed a trend towards lower somatic hypermutation in participants with suboptimal neutralisation, and elderly participants demonstrated clear reduction in somatic hypermutation of class switched cells, particularly in the IgA1/2 isotype. GM also pointed out: We have historically never had much of success with viruses. Treatment is symptomatic. We can keep you alive with the more recently developed antivirals if you have HIV, but not cure you. And we’ve had fairly good proper cure success with antivirals for hepatitis C. And that’s about it.
Some Vaccinated People Are Dying of Covid-19. Here’s Why Scientists Aren’t Surprised. – WSJ —As the Delta variant of the coronavirus surges through the U.K., almost half of the country’s recent Covid-19 deaths are of people who have been vaccinated. But doctors and scientists aren’t sounding the alarm about the apparently high proportion of deaths among the vaccinated population.On the contrary, they say the figures so far offer reassurance that vaccines offer substantial protection against the variant, particularly after two doses. Delta, first identified in India, has since spread to at least 85 countries, including the U.S., where it is now estimated to be the most common variant.The U.K. is a testing ground for how vaccines are coping. Delta is racing through the country—with 146,000 identified cases in the past week, 72% up on the week before. The country is also a world leader in identifying through testing and genetic sequencing which versions of the virus are prevalent: By mid-June, 97% of cases were Delta infections. And Delta is spreading among a population that is among the most highly vaccinated in the world: 85% of adults have had at least one vaccine shot and 63% have had two.The spread of Delta has led the U.K. government to postpone by a month the ending of Covid restrictions until July 19. But ministers are increasingly confident that the unlocking will take place as planned because vaccinations have broken the lockstep between new cases, later hospitalizations and deaths.U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a four-week extension to the country's Covid-19 restrictions in mid-June as the country deals with an increase in Delta variant infections. WSJ’s Jason Douglas explains what that could mean for the global effort to contain the virus. Photo: Henry Nicholls/Reuters (Video from 6/14/21)Data from Public Health England show that there were 117 deaths among 92,000 Delta cases logged through June 21. Fifty of those—46%—had received two shots of vaccine.But rather than suggest Delta is displaying a worrying ability to evade the vaccine and cause severe illness, scientists say those figures support the shots’ effectiveness. There are three main reasons why.First, vaccines aren’t 100% effective. Not everyone who is inoculated will respond in the same way. Those who are elderly or whose immune systems are faulty, damaged or stressed by some other illness are less likely to mount a robust response than someone younger and fitter. Covid-19 vaccines are highly effective but some people will still be vulnerable to the virus even after receiving their shots.Second, the risk of dying from Covid-19 increases steeply with age. If a vaccine reduces an 80-year-old’s risk of death from Covid-19 by 95%, for instance, that 80-year-old’s risk of death might still be greater than the risk faced by an unvaccinated 20-year-old. Some chronic illnesses such as diabetes, hypertension and lung disease are also associated with a higher risk of severe illness and death.Third, as more of the population gets vaccinated, there are fewer unvaccinated people for the virus to infect. If the pool of vaccinated people is larger than the pool of unvaccinated people, then it is possible and even likely that breakthrough infections resulting in death in the older, vaccinated group would match or exceed deaths in the younger, unvaccinated group. Consider an imaginary country with 100% of people vaccinated, where the virus can still somehow spread. All Covid-19 deaths would be in vaccinated individuals.Of those 50 deaths in fully vaccinated people in England, all were in people aged 50 years and over, the data show. There have been no deaths recorded in double-vaccinated under 50s.
A map shows how many people had undiagnosed COVID-19 in the first 6 months of the pandemic, across 7 regions of the US - On paper, the US's summer and winter coronavirus surges look far more devastating than the first one in the spring of 2020. But a new report published in the journal Science Translational Medicine offers the most robust look yet at how widespread the virus actually was during that initial wave. The results show that for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 in the US, nearly five others went undiagnosed during the first six months of the pandemic. That amounts to roughly 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020 — in addition to the 3 million cases officially reported during that time. Kaitlyn Sadtler, an investigator at the National Institutes of Health who worked on the study, told Insider that her team spent several months making sure the figure was right. "It was shocking to an extent of, 'Wow, that's a lot of people,' but at the same time, we knew that there was this big black box out there — the unknown," she said. The estimates are based on a collection of blood samples, which the researchers gathered from around 9,000 people across the US from April 1 to August 4, 2020. None of the individuals sampled had ever been diagnosed with COVID-19, but nearly 5% of the samples came back positive for coronavirus antibodies. The researchers determined that these people had gotten undiagnosed infections. Some regions were hit harder than others, they found. The Mid-Atlantic saw the highest prevalence of COVID-19 cases: Nearly 9 out of every 100 people in the region had an undiagnosed infection, according to the report. The map below shows how that compares to other regions across the country.
Delta Plus’ Variant Of Covid-19 Coronavirus Emerges, What You Need To Know -- Delta Plus refers to a new variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2). It’s received the “Plus” designation because it’s not quite different enough from the original Delta variant to merit its own Greek alphabet letter. In fact, it’s basically the already-concerning Delta variant, plus one new addition. That new edition is a K417N mutation, a mutation that affects the virus’s spike protein. New variants emerge when mutations occur in the genetic code of the virus. When the Covid-19 coronavirus reproduces in the cells of your body, it can be similar to a drunk person hastily making photocopies of his or her bottom at the office. The virus can end up making various mistakes when replicating its genetic code. These “mistakes” are essentially mutations that can yield slightly different versions of the virus. Some of these mutations may make the virus weaker. Some may have little effect. Others may make the virus stronger like what has happened with the Delta variant and what now may be the case with the Delta Plus variant. India was the first country to find the Delta Plus variant, just like it was the first to find the original Delta variant. In fact, the Indian government has already designated this Delta Plus variant a “variant of concern.” Being designated a “variant of concern” is like winning an Oscar for viruses, but the exact opposite. The World Health Organization (WHO) defines a “variant of concern” as one that has any of the following:
- “Increase in transmissibility or detrimental change in Covid-19 epidemiology
- Increase in virulence or change in clinical disease presentation
- Decrease in effectiveness of public health and social measures or available diagnostics, vaccines, therapeutics.”
Is designating the Delta Plus variant as a “variant of concern” separate from the original Delta variant a case of premature nomination? Is the Delta Plus variant different enough from the original Delta variant? The key question really is how much worse than Delta might Delta Plus be? Well, there’s little question that the original Delta variant is already highly concerning. This more contagious version of the virus has been spreading rapidly throughout different parts of the world.There’s also the concern that the Delta variant may be more adept at attacking your lung cells.So what difference will this K417N mutation make? Remember that the Covid-19 coronavirus looks like a little spiky massage ball or the spiked ball at the end of a mace used for BDSM (not that you would necessarily know anything about that). The virus is covered with spike proteins. Anything that changes the spike protein deserves a closer look, since the virus uses the spike proteins on its surface to attach to and enter your cells. Depending how the spike protein is altered, a change could potentially enhance the virus’s ability to infect your cells. The K417N mutation is not a completely new mutation. It already is present in the Beta variant (B.1.351 lineage) that was first found in South Africa. The question though is what will happen when this mutation is combined with the mutations already present in the original Delta variant. Time and more research will tell.
DNA Explainer: Difference between Delta and Delta Plus variants - Symptoms, treatment, who’s at risk - The Delta Plus variant is fast emerging as the global COVID-19 variant of concern. It is a mutation of the Delta variant, which has been the dominant variant behind the COVID caseload around the world in 2021. Delta variant was largely behind India’s catastrophic second wave and was identified spreading in communities in 84 other countries. Its mutation, Delta Plus, has reportedly been found in 11 countries already. The Indian government recognized Delta Plus as a "variant of concern", after finding cases in three states – Maharashtra, Kerala and Madhya Pradesh. Strict containment measures have been put in place in the clusters of Delta Plus, as identified by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Consortia (INSACOG). In Maharashtra, experts fear a third wave in near future, fuelled by the new variant of concern. Outside India, the Delta Plus variant has been found in countries like US, UK, Japan, Russia, China, Portugal, Switzerland and Poland. What makes the Delta Plus variant a global concern is that it shows mutations acquired from both the Delta strain, first discovered in India, and the Beta strain, which was discovered in South Africa. The new mutation of the B.1.617.2 strain or the Delta variant, as named by the WHO, has been found to have two graded mutations L452R and P871R. As per Dr Raman R Gangakhedkar, former head scientist of epidemiology and communicable diseases at ICMR, who spoke to a leading news website, these two mutations “add to the higher transmission efficiency so that the variant can spread quickly from one person to another or can enter into the cells much more efficiently compared to other strains that exist.” Furthermore, the Delta Plus variant, also known as AY.1, has acquired the K417N mutation from the Beta variant.
Lambda lineage of SARS-CoV-2 has potential to become variant of concern. Researchers have described the first reported infection with the C.37 (Lambda) lineage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Southern Brazil. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is the agent responsible for the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The Lambda lineage was classified as a variant of interest (VOI) by the World Health Organization on June 15th, 2021. The C.37 variant, which lies within the B.1.1.1 lineage, has already been reported as highly prevalent in Peru and has also been identified in many countries across the Americas, Europe and Oceania, says Priscila Wink from the Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre in Rio Grande do Sul and colleagues. However, C.37 has only been reported occasionally in Brazil despite its global spread, adds the team. Now, Wink and colleagues have described the first case of C.37 infection in Southern Brazil. The researchers discovered eight defining mutations in the variant, in addition to the 19 mutations that have already been described for other members of this lineage. “Considering that this VOI has been associated with high rates of transmissibility, the possible spread in the Southern Brazilian community is a matter of concern,” they write. A pre-print version of the research paper is available on the medRxiv* server, while the article undergoes peer review.
Health care workers face mental health crisis as the result of pandemic disaster - The coronavirus pandemic has lasted for more than 15 months, severely impacting not only the physical but the mental health of the vast majority of the world’s population. While almost 4 million people have died globally, hundreds of millions more have experienced overwhelming levels of stress, loss, economic anxiety, depression, isolation and uncertainty. In few other fields have workers been exposed to such high levels of stress as in health care. Health care workers, especially those on the frontline, have faced increased work hours, shortages of lifesaving personal protective equipment (PPE) and endless exposure to patient deaths. Large numbers of their colleagues have also died fighting to save lives. During the first year of the pandemic, more than 3,600 health care workers died in the United States, according to the ongoing study, “Lost on the frontline,” by Kaiser Health News and the Guardian newspaper. Nurses and health care support specialists accounted for the largest share of these deaths. More than 700 died in New York and New Jersey alone, the study found. While the report outlines a shocking scale of death among health care workers, these statistics are not comprehensively tracked by the government, and the authors of the study suggest the true toll is higher. Many of these deaths were the product of a direct failure of hospital administrators and governments to procure adequate supplies of masks and other personal protective gear, lack of mass testing and contact tracing, inadequate safety measures at workplaces, and refusal to implement necessary public health measures like lockdowns and restrictions until COVID-19 was successfully contained. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, “essential workers” are more likely to report symptoms of anxiety or depressive disorder, substance use and suicidal thoughts during the pandemic. Many current studies of health care workers are showing increased rates of post-traumatic symptoms among those workers caring for COVID-19 patients, with nurses being more often adversely impacted than doctors.
The US hasn't vaccinated enough people to stop a Delta variant spike of infections, one of the leading US public-health experts has warned A top US public-health doctor has warned that the nation hasn't vaccinated enough people to stop a spike in cases from the Delta coronavirus virus.Dr. Ashish Jha, dean at the Brown School of Public Health, said onTwitter on Friday that rising infections in the UK, where vaccination rates are high, suggested the US would not ward off a surge in cases of the more-infectious Delta variant. Jha predicted a surge in infections over the next few weeks as Deltabecomes the dominant strain in the US. "Low vax communities are particularly at risk," he said. The Delta variant now accounts for at least 20% of new infections in the US, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden's chief medical adviser, who said on Wednesday that the variant was the "greatest threat" to the nation's efforts to eradicate COVID-19. Rochelle Walensky, director at the CDC, said June 18 that Delta would become the most common strain of coronavirus in the US within months.The Delta variant is spreading especially quickly in kids, who are unvaccinated — but it doesn't appear to be causing more severe COVID-19 than other variants.Jha explained that in the UK, where Delta has been dominant since June 18, infections had risen five-fold and hospitalizations were up 80% over the past month. This is despite the UK vaccinating more of its population than the US — roughly 54% of Brits are fully vaccinated, according to UK government data, compared with 45% of Americans, per the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).Jha added that deaths were low in the UK because "almost all older folks are vaccinated" — about 94% of Brits over 70-years-old are fully vaccinated, according to government data.
Young adults are among the biggest barriers to mass immunity. - As the country’s vaccination campaign slows and doses go unused, it has suddenly become clear that one of the biggest challenges in reaching mass immunity will be persuading skeptical young adults of all backgrounds to get vaccinated.Federal officials expressed alarm in recent days about low vaccination rates among Americans in their late teens and 20s, and have blamed them for the country’s all-but-certain failure to reach President Biden’s goal of giving 70 percent of adults at least an initial dose by July 4.The straightforward sales pitch for older people — a vaccine could very possibly save your life — does not always work on healthy 20-somethings who know they are less likely to face the severest outcomes of Covid.As public officials race to find ways to entice young adults to get vaccinated, interviews across the country suggest that no single fix is likely to sway these holdouts. Some are staunchly opposed. Others are merely uninterested. And still others are skeptical.But pretty much everyone who was eager for a vaccine already has one, and public health officials now face an overlapping mix of inertia, fear, busy schedules and misinformation as they try to cajole Gen Z into getting a shot.Public health experts say vaccinating young adults is essential to keeping infection numbers low and preventing new case outbreaks, especially as the more infectious Delta variant spreads.Since vaccines became available six months ago, health departments have focused with varying degrees of success on urging groups identified as reluctant — including people living in rural communities, African American residents, conservatives — to get vaccinated. But in recent days, public health officials have identified young adults as a significant challenge for a country where fewer than a million people a day are receiving a vaccine, down from an April peak of more than 3.3 million. In a federal report released last week, just over one-third of adults ages 18 to 39 reported being vaccinated, with especially low rates among Black people; among people 24 or younger; and among those who had lower incomes, less education and no health insurance.
Growing Gaps in U.S. Vaccination Rates Show Regions at Risk - The gap between the most vaccinated and least vaccinated places in the U.S. has exploded in the past three months, and continues to widen despite efforts to convince more Americans to get a Covid shot. On a national level, the news appears good. About 300,000 new people are getting a Covid vaccine every day in the U.S., and 54% of the full U.S population has at least one dose. The country’s vaccine campaign is among the most successful in the world, states have lifted restrictions on business and socializing, and hospitalizations have plunged.But newly available county-level data show how those national figures hide very different local vaccine realities. In the least vaccinated group of counties, many of which are in the South and Central regions of the U.S., less than half as many people have gotten at least one Covid vaccine dose as in the most vaccinated counties in the cities and on the coasts. Those less vaccinated places are not catching up, either. The gap between more- and less-vaccinated counties is expanding, and the trailing counties are far below levels needed to halt future waves of infection. In the bottom fifth of counties — which tend to be more rural, more poor, less educated and more likely to lean politically to the right — only 28% of people have received a first dose of a vaccine, on average, and 24% are fully vaccinated. The slowing rate of new vaccinations shows that despite the Biden administration’s “month of action” to hit its vaccine target of 70% of adults with at least one dose by July 4, some areas are proving hard to reach. Gaps in vaccination rates can leave smoldering embers of infection, ready to set an epidemic newly ablaze elsewhere. And they can create fertile ground for new mutations, giving the virus a chance to evade vaccines. An analysis last weekof Covid cases in 700 counties, for example, found that the new delta variant first identified in India — believed to be far more contagious — has been found more often in less-vaccinated U.S. counties. Bloomberg’s analysis looks at county-level data on the number of people who have received at least one dose of a vaccine, from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as well as the state of Texas. While previous analyses have examined county-level data on complete vaccinations, the newly available one-dose data gives a more up-to-date view.
Missouri records highest rate of new COVID-19 infections in US US health experts warn that the Delta variant of the coronavirus is driving up new infections and deaths nationwide, particularly in states with below-average vaccination rates. The increased COVID-19 rate is attributed to the Delta variant initially discovered in India, also known by the alpha-numerical designation B.1.617.2. President Joe Biden’s original target of 70 percent vaccination of US adults by July 4 will not be met, as the vaccination campaign has come to a near halt. As of June 27, only 46 percent of the US population had been fully vaccinated, and 54 percent had received at least one dose. The seven-day average of vaccinations nationally had declined to 715,000 per day. The low national vaccination rate, coupled with the insistence of federal and state authorities that everything reopen without restrictions, is causing efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 to start to unravel. Cases are rising primarily in the states with the lowest vaccination levels. Since most of the world’s population will not receive vaccines due to lack of supply, new virus strains will inevitably evolve. There is a possibility that in time a variant will emerge that renders the current vaccines essentially ineffective and ends the progress made in the United States towards lowering cases and deaths. Already the decline in the number of new cases of COVID-19 across the country has plateaued at just above 12,000 infections per day. Missouri was recently declared to have the nation's highest rate of new COVID-19 cases. Only 38 percent of Missouri's population is fully vaccinated. During the week of June 19 to 26, the state saw 5,428 new infections. The Delta strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is particularly entrenched in southwestern Missouri. Webster County Health Unit Administrator Scott Allen told the local media, “That variant is dominant in 96 percent in our sewer shed.”
Delta variant surge explodes claims that the pandemic is over in the US - For months, the Biden administration, the media and major US corporations have promoted the fiction that the COVID-19 pandemic is all but over. Last month, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reversed its guidance on mask-wearing, urging vaccinated people to stop wearing masks and socially distancing in crowded areas. Biden claimed vaccinated Americans had reached the “finish line” in the pandemic, encouraging the public to “take your mask off, you’ve earned the right.” “America is headed into a summer dramatically different from last year,” the White House wrote earlier this month. “A summer of freedom. A summer of joy. A summer of reunions and celebrations.” But the absurd pretext that the pandemic is over, even as over 300 people continue to die every day in the United States and as the disease continues to surge throughout the globe, was exploded Monday when Los Angeles County—the most populous county in the US—issued a recommendation that residents disregard the CDC order on mask-wearing and social distancing and take health measures recommended by scientists. “Until we better understand how and to who[m] the Delta variant is spreading, everyone should focus on maximum protection,” the county health department said. The move by Los Angeles County came after the World Health Organization (WHO) repeated its calls that vaccinated people should continue to wear masks in public, openly clashing with the Biden administration. “Vaccines alone will not stop the community transmission, and we need to ensure that people follow public health measures,” WHO Assistant Director-General Mariângela Simão said at a press briefing Friday.
As the Northwest broils, officials rate cooling off a higher priority than Covid precautions. To help people in the Pacific Northwest escape record-breaking temperatures, local officials have opened cooling centers — and relaxed some Covid-19 restrictions.In Oregon, where temperatures are forecast to reach 113 degrees on Monday, roads have buckled from the extreme heat, and relatively few homes have air-conditioners, state health officials suspended capacity limits at swimming pools, movie theaters and shopping malls on Friday, and said that no one would be turned away from cooling centers because of crowding.The decision follows a sustained decline in new reported coronavirus cases and deaths in the state, and Gov. Kate Brown’sannouncement that Oregon would fully open no later than June 30. Nearly 70 percent of adult residents in the state have received at least one vaccine dose, Governor Brown’s benchmark for lifting the state’s remaining restrictions.Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington has suspended capacity restrictions at publicly owned or operated cooling centers and those run by nonprofit organizations in his state, though not for “private, for-profit businesses that offer air-conditioned spaces to the general public,” according to a memo released on Friday.More than 70 percent of adults in Washington have received at least one vaccine dose, according to a vaccine tracker maintained by The New York Times. Governor Inslee has said that all restrictions in his state will be lifted no later than June 30 as well. In Portland, people have been asked to wear face masks and maintain social distance at official cooling centers, including several public libraries with extended hours, movie theaters and the Oregon Convention Center, “Cooling people down is the more immediate life safety issue,”
With cases rising, Missouri asks for a ‘surge response team’ under new White House program. - State officials in Missouri, where vaccination rates are relatively low and the highly contagious Delta variant is more prevalent than in other states, asked the White House for help on Thursday in coping with a surge in coronavirus cases and deaths.The state reached out to the Biden Administration only hours after the White House announced that it was creating “surge response teams” to help states contain outbreaks fueled by the new variant and low inoculation rates.In the past two weeks, the daily number of reported cases in Missouri has more than doubled, and hospitalizations have increased 20 percent, though the figures remain a fraction of their November peak, according to a New York Times database.The spike has been especially pronounced in the southwestern part of the state, which is home to tourist destinations like Branson and the Lake of the Ozarks, and where several hospitals recently had to move about a dozen Covid patients to other facilities because of staffing and capacity issues. C.D.C. estimates based on genomic testing put the prevalence of Delta cases in the state atnearly 30 percent.“It is obvious this increase in cases has to do with increasing presence of the Delta variant,” Dr. George Turabelidze, Missouri’s state epidemiologist, told St. Louis Public Radio in an interviewbroadcast on Friday.On Thursday, Jeffrey D. Zients, the Biden administration’s Covid-19 response coordinator, told reporters that the White House was assembling teams to help states confront outbreaks fueled by the Delta variant, tapping a mix of federal resources and personnel. “These are dedicated teams working with communities at higher risk for or already experiencing outbreaks, due to the spread of the Delta variant and their low vaccination rate,” Mr. Zients said. Missouri’s rise in reported infections and hospitalizations highlights the growing concern among public health officials that regions with large populations of unvaccinated people could see case surges.
Covid-19 caused a significant decline in life expectancy in Brazil. - The coronavirus has reversed a steady rise in life expectancy in Brazil, with an estimated decline of 1.3 years in 2020 and an even more accelerated drop during the first months of 2021, according to a new report published in the journal Nature Medicine.Significant, abrupt declines in life expectancy are rare and Brazil’s represents a major blow given the strides the country had made in improving health outcomes in recent decades, said Marcia Castro, the chair of the Department of Global Health and Population at Harvard, the lead author of the study.“We expect declines of this magnitude when you have a major shock that leads to high mortality, like a war or a pandemic,” she said.Brazil has reported more than 514,000 deaths from Covid-19, an official death toll surpassed only by that in the United States, which has lost more than 604,000 people. Even so, the United States, which has a considerably larger population, experienced a slightly lower life-expectancy drop last year: 1.13 years.The pandemic has continued to steadily worsen in Brazil, where vaccinations have lagged. At least 18 million Brazilians have been infected so far, or at least one in 11 people, and the country is averaging over 65,000 new reported cases and over 1,600 deaths a day, according to official data. But, as in India, which has the world’s third-largest official death toll, many experts believe the numbers understate the true scope of the country’s epidemic. So far, about a third of Brazil’s population has had at least one shot of a vaccine, according to Our World in Data. The decline in life expectancy is a jarring setback for Brazil, Latin America’s largest nation, which has spent billions of dollars in recent decades to expand the reach and quality of its universal public health care system. Between 1945 and 2020, life expectancy in Brazil increased from 45.5 years to 76.7 years, an average of about five months per year. The setbacks of the Covid-19 era have reverted the country to 2014 levels, according to the study.
Delay in Sydney lockdown allows COVID Delta outbreak to spread across Australia --After more than a week of refusing to introduce lockdown measures in response to a worsening COVID-19 outbreak, the Liberal-National government in New South Wales (NSW), Australia’s most populous state, on Saturday imposed limited two-week “stay at home” orders covering the Sydney metropolitan area and surrounding regions. The days of delay, in defiance of warnings by medical experts, allowed the highly infectious and dangerous Delta variant, first detected in India, to spread from a cluster in Sydney’s eastern suburbs throughout much of the city and across the continent, as well as to New Zealand. This developing disaster is another indictment of the corporate profit-driven response of Australian governments, like their counterparts internationally, which have failed to implement effective lockdown, quarantine and vaccination measures, permitting new mutant strains to emerge, such as Delta, which has spread to more than 80 countries. Technicians prepare Pfizer vaccines at the newly opened COVID-19 Vaccination Centre in Sydney, Australia, Monday, May 10, 2021. (James Gourley/Pool Photo via AP) Over the past year, Liberal-National and Labor Party governments alike in Australia have only instituted coronavirus safety measures when compelled to do so by health staff and other workers. These measures have largely led to much lower infections than in comparable countries, but epidemiologists warned for weeks that outbreaks were inevitable because of the Delta surge. Since the current outbreak began on June 16, NSW state Premier Gladys Berejiklian, backed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s federal government, had dismissed appeals from public health experts and doctors for lockdown measures, despite Berejiklian herself describing the situation in Sydney as the “scariest” the city had faced during the pandemic. As recently as Friday, Morrison declared in a Sky News interview that Berejiklian’s government had “gold standard contact tracing” and people should “feel very confident that if anyone’s going to get on top of this with their tracing and not have to shut the city down, it’s the New South Wales government.” Saturday’s belated “stay-at-home” order, giving the city’s residents only four hours’ notice, was made after Sydney recorded the largest number of daily infections thus far since June 16. The 30 cases in 24 hours took the total to 112. Today, that figure rose by another 18 to 130. The long list of exposure sites across Sydney has now exceeded 300, including busy shopping centres in working class suburbs and the state government’s own vaccination hub at Westmead hospital, the largest public hospital in the western suburbs. Of particular concern also is an outbreak linked to Great Ocean Foods, a seafood wholesaler in inner-west Marrickville, where delivery drivers linked to the business tested positive. By yesterday too, the infections had spread to five of Australia’s eight states and territories, forcing a snap two-day lockdown in the Northern Territory capital of Darwin and mask mandates, reinforced restrictions and border closures elsewhere.
Over a dozen vaccinated doctors dead as Indonesia's virus cases surge - Over a dozen fully vaccinated doctors have died of COVID-19 in Indonesia, a medical association said Friday, as the Southeast Asian country battles a rash of severe cases in inoculated medical workers and highly infectious new virus strains. Infections have surged in the nation of 270 million people in the past week, passing two million cases on Monday as hospital occupancy rates soared to over 75 percent in Jakarta and other hard-hit areas. Nearly 1,000 Indonesian health workers have died from the virus since the pandemic started, with the country's medical association confirming Friday that 401 doctors were among the victims—14 of whom were fully vaccinated. "We are still updating the data and confirming whether the other cases had been vaccinated or not," the association's COVID-19 mitigation head Mohammad Adib Khumaidi told journalists. The rise of severe cases in inoculated medical workers has raised questions about the China-produced Sinovac jab, which Indonesia is heavily relying on to vaccinate more than 180 million people by early next year. This month, more than 300 vaccinated doctors and health care workers in Central Java were found to have been infected with COVID-19, with about a dozen hospitalised. The country is also grappling with new virus strains, including the highly infectious Delta variant first identified in India. Clinical symptoms suggest that strain is responsible for a surge in cases in West Java, the medical association's spokesperson for the province, Eka Mulyana, said. "In West Java, bed occupancy rates have exceeded 90 percent. Some hospitals' rates are even more than 100 percent," he told reporters. "At this rate, our health system is close to collapse." . The surge has been partly blamed on millions travelling from that region across the Muslim-majority nation at the end of Ramadan last month, despite an official ban on the annual migration. The Indonesian medical association's Kudus representative, Ahmad Ipul Syaifuddin, has said the mass movement of people had made it next to impossible to determine where the surge began. "We have no clue on how to trace and find the first spreader of the Delta cases because the sampling test result came out around three weeks after the mass exodus," he said. "My sample was among the tested sampling for the Delta variant. I have already recovered and (have) tested negative now, but I still have a cough."
‘Health system close to collapse’: Indonesia battling COVID surge -- COVID infections have surged in Indonesia, a nation of 270 million people, in the past week, with more than 2 million cases reported as of Saturday, and hospital occupancy rates soared to more than 75 percent in the capital Jakarta and other hard-hit areas. The country is also grappling with new virus strains, including the highly infectious Delta variant first identified in India. In Jakarta, the surge in cases have forced hospitals to set up emergency tents, according to Detik news website, which quoted provincial government officials.In Medan, the capital city of North Sumatra province, Dr Inke Nadia D Lubis, member of the COVID task force in the area, reported that in the last six months as many as 1,800 children have been infected with the virus, including 14 who have died. More than a third of the cases reported were elementary school-age students, while a quarter were high school-age students, Inke was quoted by Detik as saying. On Friday, President Joko Widodo said that the country is facing an “extraordinary situation”, vowing to respond with “quick and appropriate policies”. Nearly 1,000 Indonesian health workers have also died from the virus since the pandemic started, with the country’s medical association confirming on Friday that 401 doctors were among the victims, including 14 who were fully vaccinated. This month, more than 300 vaccinated doctors and healthcare workers in Central Java were found to have been infected with COVID-19, with about a dozen hospitalised. The rise of severe cases in inoculated medical workers has raised questions about the China-produced Sinovac jab, which Indonesia is heavily relying on to vaccinate more than 180 million people by early next year.
Indian COVID-19 mutant strain reaches Iraq -Iraq’s health minister announced on Tuesday that India’s mutated COVID-19 strain known as “Delta” had reached Iraq."The mutated Indian strain “Delta” is one of the most dangerous strains, and several factors have proven its presence, including the increase in infections among young people and the high number of patients admitted into intensive care,” Iraqi health official, Jasib Al-Hajami, said in a statement to the Iraqi News Agency (INA).The number of those infected with coronavirus in a critical condition increased from 300 to more than 500 cases across the country, Hajami said.
A cascading series of failures left hospitals across India without medical oxygen. - At 9:45 p.m., alarms blared across the intensive care unit of Jaipur Golden Hospital. Over two dozen patients on ventilators couldn’t breathe. Some flailed their arms and legs. Others cried for help, choking sounds coming from their throats as if they were being strangled. Mechanics sprinted to the maintenance room to see what was wrong. Nurses grabbed small plastic pumps to fill the lungs of critically ill patients by hand. It wasn’t enough. Jaipur Golden, a respected hospital in Delhi, had run out of medical oxygen. Over the next seven hours, 21 coronavirus patients died. “Nobody can forget that night,” said Shaista Nigar, the hospital’s nursing superintendent. “It was a total breakdown.” Across India, amid a devastating second wave of Covid-19, hospitals ran out of beds and critical supplies, contributing to deaths and worsening an already tragic outbreak. By one count, oxygen shortages alone have killed at least 600 people over the past two months. India’s leaders knew the country was vulnerable. Yet Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government and local officials alike failed to prepare for the second wave, according to interviews and a review of government documents by The New York Times. India is a major producer of compressed oxygen. But the Indian government moved too late to distribute supplies. State governments feuded over oxygen and seized tankers, creating bottlenecks and delays. Delhi city officials didn’t build systems to produce or store oxygen and struggled to allocate dwindling supplies. When tight supplies and government missteps led oxygen to run out at Jaipur Golden, some families said the hospital offered no warning. Without a comprehensive coronavirus plan, Mr. Modi’s government has left much of the burden to states, cities, hospitals and even individuals. The oxygen crisis tragically revealed the limits of a do-it-yourself approach.
In Worst-Hit African Nation, Covid Vaccines Halted and Hospitals Hit Capacity --In Namibia, which has Africa’s fastest-growing Covid-19 epidemic, vaccines are running out, hospitals and mortuaries are overwhelmed and the blame game has begun.The government, criticized by politicians and medical experts for its response to the pandemic, rolled back a decision to reserve its limited doses for people awaiting a second shot and will now also use the vaccines it has for first-time inoculations, in line with World Health Organization advice.“Systems in the hospitals are under severe pressure, including staff who are overworked and not performing at their best,” said Gordon Cupido, head of internal medicine at the Katutura State Hospital in the capital, Windhoek. “The human cost is tremendous, often patients are dying unnoticed.”Namibia is one of a swathe of African nations in the grips of a third wave of coronavirus infections that’s overwhelming the least-vaccinated continent. While the U.S. and U.K. have fully inoculated at least 45% of their populations, that figure is just 1.1% for Africa.In Namibia, 0.8% of the population is fully vaccinated, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.In the week to June 28, the southwest African nation with a population of about 2.5 million had an infection rate of 4,302 cases per million people, the second-highest rate in the world after Mongolia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Deaths more than doubled from the week earlier. Mortuaries across the country are overwhelmed with the increasing number of Covid-19 deaths, putting “even more pressure on the situation,” Health Minister Kalumbi Shangula said in an interview.
Delta variant outbreak in Israel spreads to some vaccinated adults - An outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19 in Israel has spread to some vaccinated people — with about half of the adults infected fully inoculated with the Pfizer shot, a health official said.Ran Balicer, who heads a COVID-19 government advisory committee, said that about 90 percent of new infections in the country were likely caused by the Delta variant, a highly-contagious strain that first emerged in India, the Wall Street Journal reported.“The entrance of the Delta variant has changed the transmission dynamics,” Balicer said.Children under the age of 16 — the majority of whom had not received the vaccine — were responsible for about half of the new cases, Balicer said.But about half of adults infected in the outbreak were considered fully-vaccinated — meaning that it had been at least two weeks since they received their final dose of the Pfizer shot, he said. Balicer added that the so-called breakthrough cases were expected because though Pfizer is highly effective against the virus, it’s not 100 percent protective.
Why most people who now die with Covid in England have been vaccinated -A MailOnline headline on 13 June read: “Study shows 29% of the 42 people who have died after catching the new strain had BOTH vaccinations.” In Public Health England’s technical briefing on 25 June, that figure had risen to 43% (50 of 117), with the majority (60%) having received at least one dose.It could sound worrying that the majority of people dying in England with the now-dominant Delta (B.1.617.2) variant have been vaccinated. Does this mean the vaccines are ineffective? Far from it, it’s what we would expect from an effective but imperfect vaccine, a risk profile that varies hugely by age and the way the vaccines have been rolled out. The vaccines are not perfect. PHE estimates two-dose effectiveness against hospital admission with the Delta infections at around 94%. We can perhaps assume there is at least 95% protection against Covid-19 death, which means the lethal risk is reduced to less than a twentieth of its usual value. But the risk of dying from Covid-19 is extraordinarily dependent on age: it halves for each six to seven year age gap. This means that someone aged 80 who is fully vaccinated essentially takes on the risk of an unvaccinated person of around 50 – much lower, but still not nothing, and so we can expect some deaths.The PHE report also reveals that nearly a third of deaths from the Delta variant are of unvaccinated people over 50, which may be surprising given high vaccine coverage; for example, OpenSAFELY estimates more than 93% among the 65-69s. But there are lower rates in deprived areas and for some ethnicities and communities with limited coverage will continue to experience more than their fair share of loss.Coverage and effectiveness are important numbers for assessing vaccination programmes. It is better to look at cool analysis by analysts, rather than hot takes on social and other media.
Rapid spread of delta coronavirus variant prompts new lockdowns and restrictions worldwide - The rapid spread of the delta coronavirus variant has forced a growing number of countries to reimpose lockdowns and other public health restrictions, raising fears that the more contagious variant was hampering global efforts to contain the pandemic.The new curbs on travel and daily life stretched from Australia and Bangladesh to South Africa and Germany, where authorities over the weekend set new limits on travelers from “virus-variant zones” such as Portugal and Russia.South Africa on Sunday extended a nightly curfew and introduced a ban on gatherings, alcohol sales, indoor dining and some domestic travel for 14 days to halt a worrying surge in cases driven by the delta variant, President Cyril Ramaphosa said. In Bangladesh, the government pointed to a “dangerous and alarming” rise in delta-related infections and halted all public transportation starting Monday, prompting thousands of migrant workers to flee the capital, Dhaka, before the restrictions took hold.Australia is on the verge of a national coronavirus outbreak just as most other developed economies are emerging from restrictions, with the delta variant of the virus seeding new clusters across the continent. Thai authorities declared a month-long limited lockdown in the capital, Bangkok, and neighboring provinces, amid a spike in new cases attributed to the delta variant. And Malaysia extended a nationwide shutdown that was scheduled to be relaxed Monday.In Taiwan, which reported its first delta case on Saturday, the local Centers for Disease Controlannounced new restrictions for people arriving from seven “high-risk countries”: Bangladesh, Britain, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Israel and Peru.Hong Kong also said Monday that it was banning all passenger flights from Britain beginning later this week, because of the growing number of new coronavirus cases and “widespread delta variant virus strain there,” according to a government statement.Health experts have warned that the delta variant — which was first identified in India — is on track to become the most dominant version of the coronavirus worldwide. The World Health Organization said last week that it has been detected in at least 92 countries.Israel has one of the world’s highest vaccination rates but has also seen delta cases jump in recent weeks, causing authorities to reinstate an indoor mask mandate that was dropped just two weeks ago.Israeli officials on Sunday night, however, ruled against reviving more stringent coronavirus measures. Instead, the government is relying on the country’s high vaccination rate to protect residents from virus-related hospitalizations and deaths. Ahead of England’s plan to ease remaining coronavirus restrictions on July 19, the delta variant has continued to spread, and is now responsible for more than 90 percent of new infections in Britain. Concerns about the variant have prompted U.K. authorities to shorten the time between vaccine doses for those over 40.
North Korea reports a ‘great crisis’ in its virus response. - North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, said that lapses in his country’s anti-pandemic campaign have caused a “great crisis” that threatened “grave consequences,” state media reported on Wednesday.Mr. Kim did not clarify whether he was referring to an outbreak in North Korea, where the authorities had said there were no cases of the virus. But state media reported that the matter was serious enough for Mr. Kim to convene a meeting of the Political Bureau of his ruling Workers’ Party on Tuesday, during which Mr. Kim reshuffled the top party leadership.Senior officials neglected implementing antivirus measures and had created “a great crisis in ensuring the security of the state and safety of the people,” Mr. Kim said.Mr. Kim also berated party officials for their “ignorance, disability and irresponsibility,” said the official Korean Central News Agency.A report said there would be some “legal” consequences for the officials.The news agency said that some members of the Politburo and its Presidium, as well as some Workers’ Party secretaries, were replaced. In North Korea, all power is concentrated in the leadership of Mr. Kim, and he frequently reshuffles party officials and military leaders, holding them responsible for policy failures.The North claims officially to be free of the virus, although outside experts remain skeptical, citing the country’s threadbare public health system and lack of extensive testing. Still, North Korea has enforced harsh restrictions to contain transmission.Last year, it created a buffer zone along the border with China, issuing a shoot-to-kill order to stop unauthorized crossings, according to South Korean and U.S. officials. South Korean lawmakers briefed by their government’s National Intelligence Service last year have said that North Korea executed an official for violating a trade ban imposed to fight the virus.
Concern over the Delta variant triggers lockdowns in Asian and Pacific countries. - Countries across the Asia-Pacific region are scrambling to slow the spread of the more infectious Delta variant, reimposing restrictions and stay-at-home orders in a jarring reminder — for societies that had just begun to reopen — that the pandemic is far from over.In Australia, outbreaks of the variant have forced four major cities — Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Darwin — into strict lockdowns. On Monday, the Malaysian government said nationwide stay-at-home orders would be extended indefinitely. And Hong Kong officialsbanned flights from Britain, where cases of the Delta variant, which was first identified in India, are rising fast.In Bangladesh, soldiers are preparing to patrol the streets to enforce stay-at-home orders, with new cases rapidly approaching their early April peak. “The Delta variant of Covid-19 is dominating,” said Robed Amin, a health ministry spokesman, adding that testing suggested the strain was responsible for more than 60 percent of new cases.The lockdowns and restrictions have deflated hopes across the region, where many countries avoided the worst of the pandemic’s initial spread last year. Now, weary residents are frustrated by what some describe as their countries’ pandemic regression, as other parts of the world edge toward normalcy.Outside Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s largest city, a restaurant owner, Marcus Low, bemoaned the fourth lockdown of the pandemic. Daily infections in Malaysia peaked in early June, but even after weeks of lockdown, new cases have dipped by only 5 percent over the past two weeks, according to New York Times data. Only 6 percent of the country’s 33 million people are fully vaccinated. “My restaurant is known for its hospitality and shared dishes, the antithesis of social distancing,” Mr. Low said. For his and other small businesses struggling to survive, this lockdown “might be the last straw,” he said.
Delta variant of coronavirus fuels rise in cases in Europe --While governments in Europe abandon social distancing measures, coronavirus cases are rising across the continent, increasingly dominated by the more infectious Delta strain of the virus. The Delta variant, first detected in India, is considered to be up to 60 percent more contagious than even the Alpha strain first detected in the UK, and to be up to four times as likely to lead to hospitalisations. The most advanced situation on the continent is the UK. This is largely because the Delta variant began to spread in Britain earlier than elsewhere, despite it having a higher vaccination rate than most EU countries, with almost 60 percent of the adult population having received two doses. A bullfight amid the coronavirus pandemic at Las Ventas bullring in Madrid, Spain, June 26, 2021. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez) On Tuesday, the UK recorded a further 20,479 cases, the second consecutive day that they have topped 20,000, taking new infections recorded in the last seven days to 123,566. There were 108 deaths due to COVID-19 over the period, a comparatively low figure solely due to the impact of the vaccination program. Despite this resurgence of the virus fuelled by the Delta variant, and a total of more than 152,000 deaths from COVID-19, Sajid Javid, in his first speech to parliament as UK Health Secretary, insisted that July 19 would be “end of the line” for safety restrictions. “We see no reason to go beyond July 19 because in truth no date we choose comes with zero risk, we know we simply cannot eliminate it. We have to learn to live with it,” he said. Javid made no bones that the protection of big business was his main concern: “We also know that people and businesses need certainty. So we want every step to be irreversible. Make no mistake, the restriction on our freedoms must come to an end.” Much of the current surge has been due to the infection of youth and schoolchildren. On Tuesday, the Department of Education released figures showing that more than 375,000 pupils were absent from school last week in England due to the spread of COVID-19. This was an increase of more than 130,000 in a week, 66 percent, and equates to 5.1 percent of all schoolchildren.
At least 127 Delta variant cases in Ontario linked to massive COVID-19 outbreak at Nunavut mine - A major COVID-19 outbreak that has developed over the past two months at a mine in Canada’s far north has once again laid bare the disastrous consequences of the “profits before lives” policy during the pandemic. The refusal to allow serious public health measures to impinge on the accumulation of corporate profits has resulted not only in scores of miners getting sick. It has also led to hundreds of additional infections in Canadian provinces to the south. COVID-19 began to spread among workers at the Nunavut Territory’s Mary River Mine on April 19, and by May 5 the outbreak had become so severe that the mine was forced to suspend its operations. One of the northernmost mines in the world, the open-pit iron ore mine is located in the Qikiqtani region of Baffin Island. Workers fly in and out of the remote site as part of a three-week shift rotation, and approximately 800 workers are located at the mine at any given time. The fact that the highly transmissible Delta strain, first identified in India, had been detected among the mine workforce was not made publicly known in the company’s May 2 press release announcing the outbreak. Consequently, the number of Delta variant cases rapidly mushroomed. As of June 12, there were 106 confirmed cases of mineworkers contracting the virus, and 96 of these are of the Delta variant. According to International Union of Operating Engineers (IUOE) Local 793 spokesperson Mike Gallagher, one worker has died. Another is recovering after being hospitalized due to the virus. Currently, the Mary River Mine outbreak is one of the largest known outbreaks of the Delta variant to have occurred in Canada. Workers deemed “by the company as low risk” were allowed to fly out of the site and travel home when operations came to a halt. As a result, 1,200 workers returned to their homes, located in every province and territory across Canada. Many of these workers have unwittingly carried the COVID-19 virus and its dangerous and partially vaccine-resistant Delta variant into their home communities. Over 400 workers went back to their homes in Ontario. Flight manifests retrieved by Nunavut Public Health show that the workers flew into airports in all 34 of the province’s health jurisdictions. As of June 12, 127 COVID-19 cases in Ontario had been linked to the Mary River Mine outbreak, and it is known that 10 of these are of the B.1.617 lineage, which includes the Delta variant. Similarly, in Alberta, 120 cases are currently linked to the mine and at least 9 of those are confirmed to be Delta cases.
The virus is soaring in Myanmar, where a junta that seized power holds the vaccines. -Three days before she was arrested by soldiers, Myanmar’s civilian leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, received her first dose of a coronavirus vaccine. Her high-profile inoculation was part of a nationwide campaign to combat the virus through testing, mask-wearing, lockdowns and vaccination. But like the civilian government that Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi headed, her program to contain Covid-19 was cast aside by the military when it seized power in the Feb. 1 coup. “There had been a real push toward testing, surveillance and vaccination and all of that just crumbled after the first of February,” said Alessandra Dentice, the head of Myanmar’s UNICEF office. Now, the country, reeling from a brutal military crackdown and crippled by a monthslong national strike, is paying the price for the junta’s neglect of the pandemic. According to data reported by the regime’s health ministry, the number of daily reported Covid cases has risen sharply, and with limited testing underway, the positivity rate jumped to nearly 22 percent on Thursday. Health experts believe many more cases are going undetected. Most worrisome are outbreaks in the three largest communities near the border with India, the country where the highly contagious Delta variant was first identified. The variant has been detected among the cases. As of Thursday, 20 townships in six states and regions have been placed under pandemic-related stay-at-home orders by the military. Outbreaks have also been reported in Yangon, the largest city, and Naypyidaw, the capital. In Mandalay, the second-largest city, all seven townships were placed under stay-at-home orders on Thursday. The six hospitals in the city that accept coronavirus patients have been filled to capacity since last week, according to a local medical charity. The ousted government in the Southeast Asian nation had acquired 3.5 million vaccines from India before the coup. The junta commandeered most of the shots, but ignored plans to prioritize vaccinations for the elderly. Some shots went to vaccinate soldiers, according to a doctor at a Yangon military hospital. In protest, many doctors refused to get a second dose from the regime. The military’s unwillingness to provide details about its vaccination program prompted Covax, the global vaccine-sharing program, to delay a shipment of 5.5 million doses in March, said Dr. Stephan Paul Jost, the World Health Organization’s representative for Myanmar. No new shipment has been scheduled. With doctors and other health care workers on strike against the coup, Myanmar’s health care system may buckle under the outbreak.
India’s Covaxin effectively neutralises Delta variant of Covid, says U.S.' health research institute - India’s Covaxin, developed by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the Indian Council of Medical Research, effectively neutralises both Alpha and Delta variants of coronavirus, the U.S.’ National Institute of Health has said.The NIH said results of two studies of blood serum from people who had received Covaxin suggest that the vaccine generates antibodies that effectively neutralise the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) and B.1.617 (Delta) variants of SARS-CoV-2, first identified in the U.K. and India, respectively.The top American health research institute, which has a history of strong scientific collaboration with India, also said that an adjuvant developed with funding from it has contributed to the success of the highly efficacious Covaxin, which has been administered to roughly 25 million people till date in India and elsewhere.Adjuvants are substances formulated as part of a vaccine to boost immune responses and enhance a vaccine’s effectiveness.Covaxin comprises a disabled form of SARS-CoV-2 that cannot replicate but still stimulates the immune system to make antibodies against the virus. Published results from a phase 2 trial of the vaccine indicate that it is safe and well tolerated, the NIH said, adding that safety data from a phase 3 trial of Covaxin will become available later this year. “Meanwhile, unpublished interim results from the phase 3 trial indicate that the vaccine has 78% efficacy against symptomatic disease, 100 per cent efficacy against severe COVID-19, including hospitalisation, and 70% efficacy against asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19,” it said.
Germany recommends mixing vaccine doses to counter Delta - In a bid to provide effective coverage against the Delta variant, German health authorities broadened their recommendation that those who received a first shot of the AstraZeneca vaccine get a second dose with either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines. This “is one of the best available vaccine combinations currently available,” Jens Spahn, the country’s health minister, said on Friday, after agreeing to formally adopt a recommendation from the country’s vaccination expert panel with state lawmakers. Studies have shown that while mixing vaccines may increase the odds of mild and moderate side effects, including fever, fatigue and headache, the protection is at least on par with two jabs of the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. Germany had already been advising people under 60 to take the mixed regimen after worries about rare but severe side effects were observed in younger women receiving AstraZeneca shots. Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is 66, was inoculated with a Moderna vaccine last month after receiving an AstraZeneca shot earlier this year. Now, authorities believe the combination can help protect all vaccine recipients in the fight against the Delta virus, which is currently estimated to make up 50 percent of new cases across the country. Mr. Spahn also said that doctors and nurses could give the second shot just four weeks after the first, significantly shortening the period between shots that was initially recommended for a full AstraZeneca treatment, when the wait between shots could be as long as 12 weeks.
The Delta variant could end Australia’s pursuit of ‘Covid Zero.’ — Three days after the emergence of a rare Covid case in Sydney, around 40 friends gathered for a birthday party. Along with cake and laughter, there was a hidden threat: One of the guests had unknowingly crossed paths with that single Covid case. Two weeks later, 27 people from the party have tested positive, along with 14 close contacts. And the seven people at the gathering who were not infected? They were all vaccinated. For Australia and every other nation pursuing a so-called “Covid zero” approach, including China and New Zealand, the gathering in western Sydney amounts to a warning: Absent blanket vaccinations, the fortress cannot hold without ever more painful restrictions. The Delta mutation has already raced from Sydney across Australia. Half of the country’s 25 million people have been ordered to stay home as the caseload, now at around 200, grows every day. State borders are closed, and exasperation is intensifying. It’s a sudden turn in a country that has spent most of the past year celebrating a remarkable achievement. With closed borders, widespread testing and efficient tracing, Australia has quashed every previous outbreak, even as almost every other country has lived with the virus’s unceasing presence, often catastrophically. In Australia, no one has died from Covid-19 in all of 2021. While New York and London sheltered last year from a viral onslaught, Sydney and most of the country enjoyed full stadiums, restaurants, classrooms and theaters with “Hamilton.” That experience of normalcy — diminished only by a lack of overseas travel, occasional mask mandates and snap lockdowns — is what Australian politicians are so desperate to defend. To them, keeping Covid out, whatever it takes, remains a winning policy. On Friday, Australia doubled down on this approach, announcing that the trickle of a few thousand international arrivals allowed each week (and quarantined) would be cut by half.
Here's What Happens When You Eat From Plastic Containers - Drinking water is supposed to be good for you, but what happens when you diligently carry that disposable water bottle around all day, to remind yourself to take a sip? With that sip, you take in an undue amount of plastic, according to recent research. And that's not all. Takeout cartons, shelf-stable wrapping, those water bottles, even canned goods can be the culprit. And while no one likes the idea of consuming plastic, most of us still shrug and throw that container in the microwave. Humans ingest at least 74,000 particles of microplastic a year, according to research in The Journal of Food Science. A lot of this comes from our takeout containers. In fact, we could be ingesting more than 200 particles a week, just from our plastic food storage units. Microplastics from the containers themselves flake off into the food, accounting for 30 percent of the plastic intake from those foods, according to a study in The Journal of Hazardous Materials. Keep in mind that the manufacturers set the dishwasher and microwave safe labels on your containers, not a governmental regulatory body like the FDA. You are trusting large corporations, often based outside of the United States, to tell you your food containers are safe to wash and to heat — they may not be. High heat breaks the chemical bonds in plastic, increasing the microplastic shedding. Researchers have found that water bottles left out in the sun have a higher number of plastic chemicals in them. Scientists have found that microplastics can cross the hardy membrane that protects the brain from foreign bodies in the bloodstream, at least in animals. They are carcinogenic to humans. Just as troubling, mothers may pass microplastics through the placenta to their fetuses, according to a study shared at Rutgers Center for Urban Environmental Sustainability. The chemicals leaching out of these plastics can cause long-term medical effects. The particles could releasephthalates into the body, which interfere with hormones and can reduce fertility in both men and women. TheConsumer Product Safety Improvement Act of 2008 banned use of phthalates in toys, formula and bottles. It's not just the phthalates. Plastics contain multitudes of chemicals, including bisphenols A, S and F (BPAs, BPSs, and BPFs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Chemicals like these have been linked to cancers, weakened immune systems, organ problems, and developmental delays in kids. Bisphenols specifically (particularly BPA) have been identified as endocrine-disrupting and linked to obesity. Research also shows that BPAs make it more difficult for women to conceive and increase the risk of miscarriages.
Biden EPA Appears to Side With Chemical Industry in Microplastics Health Conflict: Greenpeace Investigation - A Greenpeace investigation revealed Monday that the Biden administration appears sympathetic to oil and chemical industry giants — not the public, scientists, and public health advocates — regarding a push in Europe to curb the use of microplastics in everyday products.According to a report by Unearthed, Greenpeace UK's investigative journalism unit, a senior policy advisor at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) named Karissa Kovner exchanged emails with the American Chemical Council (ACC) in April 2019 regarding a proposal by the Swiss government to list microplastic UV-328 in the Stockholm Convention, the UN's global treaty on chemicals that don't easily break down in nature.UV-328's inclusion in the treaty would lead to a ban on its production and use, which is currently common in plastic products, rubber, paints, coatings, and cosmetics, said Unearthed.ACC officials forwarded an email to Kovner about the proposal, to which she said, "Wow — that's quite a precedent. Holy moly."The ACC then told Kovner the Swiss government's push is the "first concrete proposal" to label UV-328 as a persistent organic pollutant (POP)."Welcome to our future," Kovner said. Kovner's comments were made when she was serving under former President Donald Trump, but she appears to still be leading the EPA's work on chemicals under Biden; in late March she represented the EPA as a senior policy advisor for international affairs at the ACC's GlobalChem conference."While you might expect Trump's EPA to align with the oil and chemical industry against protections for the American people from potentially harmful plastic chemicals, the Biden administration must do better," said John Hocevar, Greenpeace USA oceans campaign director. "As much of the world works to take action to address the impacts of the plastic pollution crisis, the U.S. government should be stepping forward to lead, not echoing the world's worst polluters." The microplastic that Kovner, the ACC, and the European Chemical Industry Council (CEFIC) expressed concern about regulating has been classified as a substance of very high concern because it persists in the environment and accumulates in organisms. Microplastics have been detected in oceans; birds' eggs and minks' vital organs in the Arctic, sparking fear among Indigenous communities there that it could affect them as well; raindrops; household items; and human breast milk.
NZ to Ban Some Single Use Plastics, Following a Familiar Distressing Pattern - By Jerri-Lynn Scofield, New Zealand environment minister David Parker today announced plans to ban some single-use plastic products, beginning next year and phased in over three stages by July 2025. Despite its reputation as a green paradise – in part fostered by Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings film trilogy – New Zealand is currently one of the top 10 per-capita producers of landfill waste in the world, according to the Guardian, New Zealand to ban most single-use plastics by 2025:New Zealand has already taken some steps to address its plastics problem and banned most single-use plastic bags in 2019.And at a time when most US policy – whether at the government or corporate level is based on the sweet nothings purred by various recycling fairies, I suppose NZ’s actions should be applauded.But instead I see recurring patterns, of policy inadequate to the scale of the problem. The NZ program will be phased-in over a rather laconic, four-year time frame – and the present scheme will leave untouched some major areas of plastics waste. According to RNZ, Government announces bans on some plastic items: The three-stage plan to phase our hard-to-recycle plastic packaging will take place over the next four years. By mid-2025 all other PVC and polystyrene food and drink packaging will be outlawed. The ban also includes single-use plastic items such as drink stirrers, cotton buds, single-use produce bags, cutlery, plates and bowls, straws and fruit labels. An even bigger elephant in the room is NZ’s apparent failure to target commercial waste. According to the Guardian: The new bans were an important step, but still missed many of the largest producers of plastic waste in New Zealand, said Assoc Prof Terri-Ann Berry, the director of Environmental Solutions Research Centre at Unitec. She said that while drawing public attention to household waste was vital, “it’s very easy to forget that some of our more commercial sectors are also big plastic users”. Construction and demolition, for example, accounted for up to 50% of landfill waste in New Zealand.
80 percent of 2021 peach crop destroyed by frost, Hungary - About 80% of the 2021 peach crop in Hungary has been destroyed by spring frost, the National Agriculture Chamber said. "Hungary is good for growing peaches, but only the right types, in the right places and with the proper farming technology," said Béla Mártonffy, head of the chamber's orchard section. "Orchard growers need to gradually change over to types of peaches that can stand up better to the challenge of global climate change, he added.
It's Some of America's Richest Farmland. But What Is It Without Water? -— A California farmer decides it makes better business sense to sell his water than to grow rice. An almond farmer considers uprooting his trees to put up solar panels. Drought is transforming the state, with broad consequences for the food supply. In America’s fruit and nut basket, water is now the most precious crop of all. It explains why, amid a historic drought parching much of the American West, a grower of premium sushi rice has concluded that it makes better business sense to sell the water he would have used to grow rice than to actually grow rice. Or why a melon farmer has left a third of his fields fallow. Or why a large landholder farther south is thinking of planting a solar array on his fields rather than the thirsty almonds that delivered steady profit for years.“You want to sit there and say, ‘We want to monetize the water?’ No, we don’t,” said Seth Fiack, a rice grower here in Ordbend, on the banks of the Sacramento River, who this year sowed virtually no rice and instead sold his unused water for desperate farmers farther south. “It’s not what we prefer to do, but it’s what we kind of need to, have to.”These are among the signs of a huge transformation up and down California’s Central Valley, the country’s most lucrative agricultural belt, as it confronts both an exceptional drought and the consequences of years of pumping far too much water out of its aquifers. Across the state, reservoir levels are dropping and electric grids are at risk if hydroelectric dams don’t get enough water to produce power.Climate change is supercharging the scarcity. Rising temperatures dry out the soil, which in turn can worsen heat waves. This week, temperatures in parts of California and the Pacific Northwest have been shattering records.By 2040, the San Joaquin Valley is projected to lose at least 535,000 acres of agricultural production. That’s more than a tenth of the area farmed.And if the drought perseveres and no new water can be found, nearly double that amount of land is projected to go idle, with potentially dire consequences for the nation’s food supply. California’s $50 billion agricultural sector supplies two-thirds of the country’s fruits and nuts and more than a third of America’s vegetables — the tomatoes, pistachios, grapes and strawberries that line grocery store shelves from coast to coast.Glimpses of that future are evident now. Vast stretches of land are fallow because there’s no water. New calculations are being made about what crops to grow, how much, where. Millions of dollars are being spent on replenishing the aquifer that has been depleted for so long. “Each time we have a drought you’re seeing a little glimpse into what will happen more frequently in our climate future,” said Morgan Levy, a professor specializing in water science and policy at the University of California, San Diego.
West coast drought leads to grasshopper plague --As the Southwest remains stuck in the most intense drought of the 21st century, a plague of grasshoppers has emerged, threatening farmers' rangelands, AP reports. The Department of Agriculture has responded by launching an extermination campaign against grasshoppers, the largest since the 1980s. Authorities have started to spray thousands of square miles with pesticide to kill immature grasshopper before they become adults. Some environmentalists worry the pesticides could kill other insects, including grasshopper predators and struggling species such as monarch butterflies, AP notes. The USDA said it would spray rangelands in sections to prevent other insect wildlife from being affected by the pesticide. The USDA released a grasshopper hazard map that shows some areas have more than 15 grasshoppers per square yard in Montana, Wyoming, Oregon, Idaho, Arizona, Colorado and Nebraska. "Left unaddressed, federal officials said the agricultural damage from grasshoppers could become so severe it could drive up beef and crop prices," AP writes. "Drought and grasshoppers go together and they are cleaning us out," Frank Wiederrick, a farmer in Montana, told AP.
‘Megadrought’ Along Border Strains US-Mexico Water Relations – The United States and Mexico are tussling over their dwindling shared water supplies after years of unprecedented heat and insufficient rainfall.Sustained drought on the middle-lower Rio Grande since the mid-1990s means less Mexican water flows to the U.S. The Colorado River Basin, which supplies seven U.S. states and two Mexican states, is also at record low levels.A 1944 treaty between the U.S. and Mexico governs water relations between the two neighbors. The International Boundary and Water Commission it established to manage the 450,000-square-mile Colorado and Rio Grande basins has done so adroitly, according to our research.That able management kept U.S.-Mexico water relations mostly conflict-free. But it masked somewell-known underlying stresses: a population boom on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border, climate change and aging waterworks.The mostly semiarid U.S.-Mexico border region receives less than 18 inches of annual rainfall, with large areas getting under 12 inches. That’s less than half the average annual rainfall in the U.S., which is mainly temperate.The 1940s, however, were a time of unusual water abundance on the treaty rivers. When American and Mexican engineers drafted the 1944 water treaty, they did not foresee today’s prolonged megadrought.Nor did they anticipate the region’s rapid growth. Since 1940 the population of the 10 largest pairs of cities that straddle the U.S.-Mexico border has mushroomed nearly twentyfold, from560,000 people to some 10 million today.This growth is powered by a booming, water-dependent manufacturing industry in Mexico that exports products to U.S. markets. Irrigated agriculture, ranching and mining compete with growing cities and expanding industry for scarce water.Today, there’s simply not enough of it to meet demand in the border areas governed by the 1944 treaty.In the fall of 2020, crisis erupted in the Rio Grande Valley after years of rising tensions and sustained drought that endanger crops and livestock in both the U.S. and Mexico.In September 2020, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott declared that “Mexico owes Texas a year’s worth of Rio Grande water.” The next month, workers in Mexico released water from a dammed portion of Mexico’s Río Conchos destined to flow across the border to partially repay Mexico’s 345,600-acre-foot water debt to the U.S. Frustrated farmers and protesters in the Mexican state of Chihuahua clashed with Mexican soldiers sent to protect the workers. A 35-year-old farmer’s wife and mother of three was killed.
Why some of the world's biggest companies are increasingly worried about water scarcity — Major companies from across a range of sectors are increasingly concerned about the cost and availability of the world's ultimate renewable resource: water.The availability and relatively low cost of water does not tend to capture much attention until it effectively runs out. Yet, with the climate crisis seen as a "risk multiplier" to water scarcity, analysts warn that even companies with relatively limited financial exposure to water risk should brace for disruption.It comes at a time when water prices are rising around the world. The average price of water increased by 60% in the 30 largest U.S. cities between 2010 and 2019, according to data compiled by Barclays, while California Water Futures have regularly jumped as much as 300% in recent years.In a research note published June 14, analysts at Barclays identified water scarcity as "the most important environmental concern" for the global consumer staples sector, which includes everything from food and beverages to agriculture and tobacco.Consumer staples, which was said to be the most exposed of all sectors to water risk, faces a $200 billion impact from water scarcity, analysts at the U.K. bank said. This came down to a strong reliance on agricultural commodities, an extreme vulnerability to water price fluctuation and operational risks — including disruption from extreme events such as droughts and flooding, and fines and lawsuits linked to pollution. The bank found that water-related comments in company transcripts last year jumped 43% when compared to the end of 2019, which it said reflected a growing corporate awareness of the risks associated with clean water and sanitation.Sustainable investors, meanwhile, seemed to be prioritizing other environmental concerns. "Our recent conservations with investors suggest that many are instead focusing mainly on the potential impact of rising carbon costs," analysts at Barclays said.The research found the potential financial impact from water risk was likely to be three times higher than carbon risk.
Yellowstone is Losing its Snow as the Climate Warms, and That Means Widespread Problems for Water and Wildlife - -A new assessment of climate change in the two national parks and surrounding forests and ranchland warns of the potential for significant changes as the region continues to heat up.Since 1950, average temperatures in the Greater Yellowstone Area have risen 2.3 degreesFahrenheit (1.3 C), and potentially more importantly, the region has lost a quarter of its annual snowfall. With the region projected to warm 5-6 F by 2061-2080, compared with the average from 1986-2005, and by as much as 10-11 F by the end of the century, the high country around Yellowstone is poised to lose its snow altogether.The loss of snow there has repercussions for a vast range of ecosystems and wildlife, as well as cities and farms downstream that rely on rivers that start in these mountains.The Greater Yellowstone Area comprises 22 million acres in northwest Wyoming and portions of Montana and Idaho. In addition to geysers and hot springs, it’s home to the southernmost range of grizzly bear populations in North America and some of the longest intact wildlife migrations, including the seasonal traverses of elk, pronghorn, mule deer and bison.The area also represents the one point where the three major river basins of the western U.S. converge. The rivers of the Snake-Columbia basin, Green-Colorado basin, and Missouri River Basin all begin as snow on the Continental Divide as it weaves across Yellowstone’s peaks and plateaus.How climate change alters the Greater Yellowstone Area is, therefore, a question with implications far beyond the impact on Yellowstone’s declining cutthroat trout population and disruptions to the food supplies critical for the region’s recovering grizzly population. By altering the water supply, it also shapes the fate of major Western reservoirs and their dependent cities and farms hundreds of miles downstream.Rising temperatures also increase the risk of large forest fires like those that scarred Yellowstone in 1988 and broke records across Colorado in 2020. And the effects on the national parks could harm the region’s nearly US$800 billion in annual tourism activity across the three states.
Record high 114 temperature set in Canada -A village in British Columbia set a record high temperature for Canada on Sunday, beating a previous record of 113 degrees Fahrenheit. Environment Canada, a government weather agency, said on Twitter that the village of Lytton climbed to just over 115 degrees. CTV News is reporting that the temperature on Tuesday could get close to 117 degrees. Vancouver and the rest of the Pacific Northwest is also experiencing record heat, according to The Washington Post. The temperature at the local airport spiked to 89 degrees on Sunday, a record for the area, which usually experiences mild weather. Portland and Seattle have both recently set record temperatures at 112 degrees and 103 degrees, respectively. A “heat dome,” a stretched-out area of high pressure, over the region is being blamed for the record temperatures. Experts told the Post that climate change can increase the likelihood of extreme weather events such as this one. Cities in at least eight states across the U.S. saw record-breaking temperatures last week, and wildfires ignited across Arizona, California, Colorado, Montana, Utah and Wyoming.
Blistering heat wave demolishes all-time records in northwestern US, Canada - To say it's hot in the northwestern United States and western Canada is an understatement. For the second straight day, temperatures soared to unheard of levels for this part of the world on Sunday -- and AccuWeather meteorologists say the summer sizzle hasn't even reached its peak. AccuWeather's team of expert forecasters were describing the then upcoming heat wave as "unprecedented", "life-threatening" and "historic" as early as the middle of last week, and these descriptions have been accurate in the first days of the Northwest scorcher. The weekend marked the beginning of the extended stretch of extreme temperatures. Portland, Oregon, a city that typically experiences temperatures in the middle to upper 70s in late June, soared to a staggering 112 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday, breaking the all-time record high of 108 set just a day before. Prior to the current heat wave, the highest temperature ever recorded in the city was 107 set once in July of 1965 and twice in August of 1981. Portland is also expected to obliterate its daily record high of 100 on Monday and possibly set an all-time high temperature record for the third straight day. AccuWeather is predicting a high of 113 on Monday, which would make it the hottest day ever recorded in the city. The highest temperature ever recorded in the state of Oregon is 117, which was set inUmatilla on July 27, 1939. "Temperatures of 110 F or greater are virtually unheard of west of the Cascades," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Randy Adkins noted. Seattle soared to its own historic heights over the weekend as the thermometer skyrocketed to 102 on Saturday and 104 on Sunday, with the latter setting a new all-time high for the Emerald City. According to the National Weather Service, this is the first time the city surpassed 100 degrees two days in a row. The Emerald City will easily eclipse Monday's daily record, which stands at 91, and will likely set a new mark for the hottest day in recorded history. Monday's high is expected to reach a scorching 111.The all-time state record-high temperature for Washington is 118, most recently set at Burbank on Aug. 5, 1961. Temperatures in Sunnyside, Washington, located about 180 miles southeast of Seattle, may soar close to this mark by Tuesday. Average highs in June can be anywhere from the 70s in eastern Washington and Oregon to the 80s in western areas and into Idaho.
Pacific Northwest heat wave temperatures reach all-time high - Record-setting temperatures were recorded throughout the American Northwest on Monday, in some cases beating previous high temperatures observed only this past weekend, The Associated Press reports.Seattle and Portland recorded 107 degrees Fahrenheit and 115 degrees, respectively, on Monday, both exceeding records set just days ago. As the AP notes, these sorts of lingering "heat dome" extreme temperatures are unheard of in the region known for its cool climate. Less than half of Seattle's residents have air conditioning, the AP reported, adding that the city's average June high temperature is around 70. On Sunday, a village in British Columbia set a new record high temperature for the entire nation of Canada: more than 115 degrees. Businesses, schools and even COVID-19 testing sites have been forced to close due to the heat. On Sunday, the U.S. track and field Olympic trials in Oregon were forced to postpone after temperatures went above 100 degrees and one athlete had to be carted off the field in a wheelchair. Much of the region's infrastructure is ill-equipped to handle such conditions, mirroring what occurred in Texas earlier this year when freezing cold temperatures brought down the state's electric system and leaving many without heat. Light rail and street car service in Portland has been canceled as power cables melted, the AP reports. Roads and pavements have begun to buckle and pop due to expanding under the heat. Workers have been hosing down drawbridges to prevent them from expanding and interfering with opening and closing mechanisms.
Portland soared to 116 degrees — hotter than Dallas, Miami and L.A. have ever been - Portland, Oregon, soared to a searing 116 degrees Monday, hotter than it has ever been in cities such as Dallas, New Orleans and downtown Los Angeles. In fact, when it comes to major U.S. cities, only Phoenix and Las Vegas have been hotter. On the other side of the country, a parallel heat wave was in full swing, with Boston forecast to touch 100 degrees Tuesday. The culprit? A buckling in the jet stream causing amplified ridges to surge far north on both sides of the country, resulting in dangerous heat infiltrating areas unaccustomed to it. On Tuesday, 12 million Americans across much of the West were under heat watches and warnings, and 44 million were under heat alerts across the Northeast, stretching from Delaware to Maine. Monday was a textbook example of a summer scorcher, pumping heat into the entirety of the Pacific Northwest and prompting an electrical utility in Spokane, Washington, to warn that people will face more rolling blackouts amid heavy power demand. More than 35 cities tied or set records, with many areas soaring an unprecedented 30 to 40 degrees above average. The record in Seattle was smashed by 5 degrees, hitting 108, and the record high in Portland was also shattered, soaring to a sizzling 116 degrees, 8 degrees higher than the old record. The heat was so excessive that Portland streetcar power cables melted and the pavement buckled. And the heat has been so persistent that Seattle achieved a new record: three consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures for the first time. The historic heat even jeopardized several state and national records. The record high of 119 for Oregon and the record of 118 in Washington came nearly within reach when Salem, Oregon, hit 117 and Dallesport, Washington, hit 118 Monday. Most impressive, Lytton, British Columbia, recorded a high temperature of 118 degrees, establishing a new national record for Canada, and crushing the old record by 5 degrees. This temperature surpassed Las Vegas' all-time high of 117. To put this extreme heat into perspective, the hottest temperatures in traditionally hot cities are still cooler than these new records for Portland and Seattle. Miami's record high is a mere 100 and Atlanta's is only 106.
Temperature records smashed amid historic heat wave in Pacific Northwest --Temperature records were smashed in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and western Canada amid a historic heat wave described by the National Weather Service (NWS) as "historic, dangerous, prolonged and unprecedented." Daytime temperatures were pushed into the triple digits, triggering heat warnings from Oregon to Canada's Arctic territories on Sunday, June 27, 2021.For the second consecutive day, temperatures rose to record-breaking, dangerously high levels in the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Portland soared to 44.4 °C (112 °F), its highest temperature in more than 80 years of records. This new mark occurred just one day after recording 42 °C (108 °F), which had broken the previous all-time record of 41.7 °C (107 °F). Meanwhile, Seattle hit 40 °C (104 °F), exceeding the past record of 39.4 °C (103 °F). The Dalles in Oregon sweltered through 46.1 °C (115 °F), topping 43.9 °C (111 °F) set in 1998 and 1992.Salem in Oregon reached 45 °C (113 °F), topping the all-time record high of 42.4 °C (108 °F) from 1927, 1941, and 1981. Vancouver in Washington reached 44.4 °C (112 °F), surpassing the all-time record of 42.2 °C (108 °F) on Saturday, June 27, which tied with the record from 2009.Medford in Oregon saw its warmest June temperature with 45 °C (113 °F), exceeding the previous monthly record of 43.9 °C (111 °F). Pasco in Washington reached 46.1 °C (115 °F), topping the warmest June set in 2015 with 43.9 °C (111 °F). The abnormal heat swelled north of the international border as Canada registered its highest temperature ever recorded when Lytton in British Columbia hit 46.7 °C (116 °F). Kamloops in British Columbia reached 42.8 °C (116 °F), marking its highest temperature on record. Victoria International Airport hit 37.2 °C (99 °F), topping its all-time record of 36.1 °C (97 °F) in 2007 and 1941.Prior to the record heat, NSW warned that temperatures will be "historic, dangerous, prolonged and unprecedented," adding, "we can’t stress enough how impactful this heat will be to nearly every person and community in the Pacific and Inland Northwest region."NWS in Seattle and Portland described the heat as unprecedented, forecasting scores of long-standing records. More than 25 million residents from Northern California are under excessive heat warnings, which are in force until next week. Washington, Oregon, and Idaho could see their hottest June on record, NWS added, seeing temperatures of at least 45 °C (113 °F). As heat soars north of the border, B.C. and Alberta in Canada are also forecast to experience record-setting heat."Even though we’ve had heat waves in June, they haven’t been nearly as strong as this one is forecast to be," said climatologist Larry O'Neill. "Other past exceptional heat waves that we’ve had in the Pacific Northwest-- they've all occurred after mid-July." On Monday, June 28, NWS warned that the "intense, prolonged, and record-breaking heat wave will continue over the Western U.S. through much of this week." "Numerous daily, monthly, and all-time temperature records are forecast. To put it in perspective, today will likely go down in history as the hottest day ever recorded for places such as Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR. This level of heat is extremely dangerous and can be deadly if proper heat safety is not followed." Meanwhile, Environment Canada issued a heat warning for parts of eastern Ontario, saying excessive heat and humidity will continue through Monday in Brockville, Prescott, Merrickville-Wolford, Kemptville, Cornwall, Morrisburg and Prescott, and Russell
Portland Infrastructure Crumbles record 116-degree heat - Three days, three records. For the third consecutive day, the high-temperature page of Portland's record book will need a rewrite.Portland has been at the epicenter of a record-shattering heat wave that has been sending temperatures soaring to previously unimaginable levels across the northwestern United States and western Canada. Among the victims left in the heat wave's wrath have been stricken residents, buckled streets and melted power cables.Little relief has been offered even at night, and the city continued its streak of searing heat Monday, setting a new all-time record high temperature in the process. The intense Portland heat has caused streets and sidewalks to buckle. The day's highest mark reached 116 degrees Fahrenheit, breaking the one-day-old record of 112 set Sunday. That had broken the anything-but-ageless record of 108 set Saturday. However, prior to that, the all-time high truly did seem untouchable, as no day had touched the previous record of 107 F since August 1981.For a city that typically sees average highs top out in the low 80s during the year's hottest months, in July and August, this June blast of heat was never something many in the city could have imagined.The city's infrastructure and operations are a testament to that.On Monday, power cables supporting streetcars in Portland were stretched to the extreme, melting in some areas.Less than 50 miles south of Portland, the city of Salem, Oregon, posted the day's highest temperature, hitting a new all-time high of 117 degrees. For reference, Las Vegas has never recorded a day warmer than that.The Oregon Health Authority reported a total of 506 heat-related visits to emergency departments and urgent care centers over the past four days, according to CNN, and at least 251 visits occurred on Monday. The heat wasn't any less brutal in Washington where at least 676 people visited emergency departments for heat-related symptoms from Friday into Sunday. Spokesperson for the Washington State Department of Health Cory Portner told CNN that 81 of those cases led to inpatient admissions.
Extreme Heat Wave Melts Cables, Buckles Roads in Northwest -Another day, another cascade of high temperature records broken across the Pacific Northwest as a heat wave unlike any in recent memory continued into a third day.In Washington, Oregon, and British Columbia, all-time records were broken in many places for the third consecutive day: In Portland, highs topped out at 116°F on Monday afternoon, obliterating Sunday's record of 112°, which itself was a jump from the historic high of 107° set in August 1981.Temperatures at Seattle's Sea-Tac airport were measured at 108°, topping Sunday's 104°. The effects of 72 hours of extraordinary heat showed themselves in dramatic ways Monday. In Portland, the light rail and streetcar systems were suspended as the grid felt the strain – in some cases, literally, as power cables melted in the sun.Multnomah County, where Portland is located, reported a spike in heat-related emergency and urgent care visits as residents sought relief. Roads across the region buckled as asphalt and concrete expanded and cracked due to high temperatures; the Seattle Parks Department closed one indoor public pool because air temperatures in the facility were so high as to be unsafe for visitors.At Amazon's largely un-air conditioned warehouse complex south of Seattle, some workers were kept on the job throughout Monday, even as others were sent homewith pay following reports on Sunday that departments were running "power hours," encouraging workers to move as quickly as possible for an hour to increase productivity. Residents experienced scattered blackouts, with around 30,000 outages reported in Washington and Oregon Monday evening. Heat waves kill more people on average in the U.S. than any other weather-related event, and are expected to continue to become increasingly frequent and severe with the effects of climate change.
As Canada sees record temperature of over 118 degrees amid heat wave, police warn of deaths - Lytton, a village in British Columbia, became the first place in Canada to record a temperature above 113 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday, with the thermometer hitting 116 degrees.But that national record did not last for long. On Monday, according to government weather agency Environment Canada, Lytton saw temperatures soar to just above 118 degrees on Monday.As The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang noted, that is one degree higher than the record in Las Vegas, the desert city more than a thousand miles south of Lytton.The heat could have a devastating effect on Canada’s west, where such high temperatures are unusual, and not all residents have air conditioning. In Burnaby, neighboring Vancouver in British Columbia, local law enforcement announced Tuesday that they had responded to more than 25 “sudden death” calls in 24 hours.Though the causes of death were still being investigated, police said that many of the victims were elderly and that the heat was suspected to be a contributing factor.“We are seeing this weather can be deadly for vulnerable members of our community, especially the elderly and those with underlying health issues. It is imperative we check on one another during this extreme heat,” said Col. Mike Kalanj with Burnaby Royal Canadian Mounted Police.In nearby Surrey, officials told local reporters that they, too, were seeing an unusual number of calls related to deaths.Surrey police had responded to 22 sudden-death calls Monday and 13 by midday Tuesday, according to the Surrey Leader. Though the causes of the deaths had not been determined, police were “responding to a higher-than-usual number of deaths since the beginning of the extreme weather conditions,” The previous Canadian records for hottest temperature, both 113 degrees, were set in Yellow Grass and Midale in Saskatchewan on July 5, 1937.“It’s warmer in parts of western Canada than in Dubai. I mean, it’s just not something that seems Canadian,” Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips told CTV News on Saturday.
Canada sets new all-time heat record of 121 degrees amid unprecedented heat wave -The British Columbia village of Lytton set the country’s heat record for a third straight day Tuesday, after Portland and Seattle notched all-time highs on Monday. The most severe heat wave in the history of the Pacific Northwest has climaxed, obliterating scores of long-standing records in both the U.S. and Canada. The National Weather Service had predicted the heat wave would be “historic, dangerous, prolonged and unprecedented,” and it has lived up to its billing.Perhaps the most astonishing heat occurred Tuesday in British Columbia where the high temperature in the village of Lytton soared to 121 degrees, setting Canada’s national heat record for a third straight day. For perspective, this temperature is more extreme than the all-time high in Las Vegas, 117, and higher than most places in the Lower 48 states outside the Desert Southwest. “Words cannot describe this historic event,” tweeted Environment Canada’s British Columbia branch. According to world weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera, the 121-degree reading also set a new world record for the most extreme high temperature ever observed north of 45 degrees latitude.Lytton broke Canada’s previous national heat record of 113 degrees on three consecutive days, rising to 116 Sunday, 118 Monday and finally 121 Tuesday, which tied Death Valley for the day’s highest temperature in North America. In the Lower 48 states, while the heat eased on Tuesday in Seattle and Portland, record-setting temperatures roasted the interior Pacific Northwest. Spokane, for example, set a new all-time high of 109 degrees.A preliminary new all-time state record high temperature was set in Oregon, where Hermiston, about 185 miles east of Portland, surged to 118 degrees. This occurred just one day after Dallesport, Wash., also hit 118, preliminarily tying a Washington state record. Dallesport is located about midway between Hermiston and Portland along the Washington-Oregon border.Tuesday’s exceptional inland heat followed a sweltering Monday when locations closer to the coast saw temperatures balloon 30 to 40 degrees above normal.Portland and Seattle broke all-time records by enormous margins. Portland reached 116 degrees, the highest temperature in more than 80 years of record-keeping. It was the third day in a row the city set a new all-time high. Before this weekend, the all-time high was 107, but on Saturday it hit 108 and on Sunday 112.Seattle soared to a sizzling 108 degrees Monday evening, surpassing the all-time record of 104 degrees set the day before (which topped the previous mark of 103 from 2009). The high of 108 was 34 degrees above the normal high of 74 and higher than the all-time heat record in Washington, D.C., among many other cities much farther to its south.
Wildfire engulfs village that set Canada’s all-time heat record -- Lytton, which saw 121 degrees Tuesday, was in flames Wednesday night as massive blazes erupted in British Columbia. One day after it set Canada’s all-time heat record, a British Columbia village was devoured by flames. A fast-moving wildfire roared over the village of Lytton on Wednesday evening, which shocked climate scientists when temperature there surged to 121 degrees on Tuesday, breaking Canada’s national heat record for a third straight day.The blaze was a sobering symbol of a hellscape in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, where hundreds have died and wildfires are erupting as temperatures climb to astonishing heights. One location in Canada’s Northwest Territories, hit 103 degrees Wednesday, the highest temperature observed so far north.‘Our poor little town of Lytton is gone’: Village at center of Canada’s heat wave devastated by ‘catastrophic’ fires The Lytton blaze prompted a mandatory evacuation order at 6 p.m. local time for the village of 250 people about 150 miles northeast of Vancouver.“The fire, it took maybe 15 minutes to engulf the whole town,” Lytton Mayor Jan Polderman told NEWS 1130, a news radio station in Vancouver. “People, basically they just grabbed their keys, and ran out the door. That’s how quick the fire happened.” Canada’s Global News reported that several buildings were destroyed and that an “unknown number of injured residents” were taken out of the village by ambulance. “The town is about a kilometre [0.6 miles] long and there were flames from one end of town to the other,” Polderman told NEWS11. “I saw it with my own eyes.”Lytton burned as more than a dozen wildfires erupted in British Columbia amid the most extreme heat wave recorded in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. Dry lightning, or cloud-to-ground bolts from thunderstorms producing little or no rain, probably ignited most of the blazes.Weather satellites sensed hot spots near the ground and revealed massive smoke plumes in the sky, as towering pyrocumulus clouds shot up into the atmosphere. The pyrocumulus, billowing clouds that can surge over 50,000 feet high during extreme fire behavior, generated a siege of lightning. Chris Vagasky, a meteorologist with Vaisala, which operates a North America lightning network, tweeted that more than 3,800 lightning events were detected. Neil Lareau, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Nevada-Reno, tweeted that some of thepyrocumulus reached up to 55,000 feet, infiltrating the stratosphere, which is very unusual and observed only during the most extreme events. For example, it occurred during Australia’s devastating fire season in 2020 when a large enough plume entered the stratosphere to circumnavigate the globe.“I’ve watched a lot of wildfire-associated pyroconvective events during the satellite era, and I think this might be the singularly most extreme I’ve ever seen,” tweeted Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California in Los Angeles. “The recent and ongoing heatwave in the Pacific Northwest (in both the U.S. and Canada) is not just another heat wave,” wrote Christopher Burt, an expert on world weather extremes, in a Facebook message. “It is the most anomalous extreme heat event ever observed on Earth since records began two centuries ago.”
Dozens Die Across British Columbia And Pacific Northwest Amid "Historic" Heat Wave -The Pacific Northwest is experiencing a multi-day heat wave that we said last week would be "historic." The unrelenting triple-digit temperatures shattered records on Monday and Tuesday and have stressed out power grids in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Many folks in these areas don't have central air condition and struggle to survive in these unprecedented conditions. At the moment, dozens have died of heat-related complications since last Friday. Just north of the Pacific Northwest is Canada's westernmost province, British Columbia, where Death Valley hot temperatures reached triple digits. Many folks in this region of the Pacific coastline and mountain ranges don't have central air condition and found it challenging to stay cool. CNN reports more than 230 deaths across British Columbia have been recorded since Friday. The coroner for the region called it an "unprecedented time.""Since the onset of the heat wave late last week, the BC Coroners Service has experienced a significant increase in deaths reported where it is suspected that extreme heat has been contributory," Chief Coroner Lisa Lapointe said in a statement.BC Coroners Service said it usually receives on average 130 deaths over four days, but from Friday through Monday, at least 233 deaths were reported. The chief coroner warned this number is expected to climb as new data comes in."Environmental heat exposure can lead to severe or fatal results, particularly in older people, infants and young children and those with chronic illnesses," the coroner's office said. As for the Pacific Northwest, a dozen deaths in Washington and Oregon are believed to be due to heat-related complications. Temperatures in Seattle and Portland have recorded highs over 100 degrees for multiple days.
Death toll rising amid a historic heat wave in British Columbia, Canada - More than 230 deaths have been reported in British Columbia, Canada from Friday, June 25 to Monday afternoon, June 28, 2021, amid a historic heat wave in the Pacific Northwest. The number is nearly double the expected amount and is predicted to further increase as data continues to be updated. While the extreme heat wave has likely peaked, dangerous temperatures are still forecast across the region through the end of this week. A noticeable drop in temperatures is expected on July 7 and 8. The heat wave, described by the National Weather Service (NWS) as "historic, dangerous, prolonged, and unprecedented" pushed temperatures into the triple digits, prompting heat warnings in the northwest U.S. and Canada's Arctic territories. For the third consecutive day on Tuesday, Lytton B.C. set the record for the hottest temperature ever recorded in Canada as the mercury hit 49.5 °C (121.1 °F) in the Fraser Canyon village. Several other cities in B.C. also smashed the previous national records, including Cache Creek, Grand Forks, Kamloops, Lillooet, Kelowna, and Osoyoos, all of which recorded temperatures at or over 45 °C (113 °F). Armel Castellan, a meteorologist with Environment Canada, said, "There's really no hyperbole strong enough for this. We're just flummoxed with how much these records are breaking." In a statement, British Columbia Coroners Service chief Lisa Lapointe said it received 233 reports of deaths over a four-day period of the scorching heat, from Friday to Monday afternoon, which was almost double the expected amount. "Since the onset of the heatwave late last week, the BC Coroners Service has experienced a significant increase in deaths reported where it is suspected that extreme heat has been contributory." The numbers are expected to increase as data continues to be updated, she said, adding that the fatalities underscore the vulnerability of the elderly, young people, and those with chronic illnesses in sizzling weather conditions.
Record-breaking heatwave results in over 486 deaths in British Columbia The prolonged and deadly heat wave that is scorching Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest in the US has at the time of this writing resulted in more than 486 deaths in British Columbia (BC) alone. The “sudden and unexpected” deaths, reported over the five-day period between Friday and 1 p.m. on Wednesday, account for a staggering 195 percent increase in the usual number of deaths reported in such a time frame. British Columbia Emergency Health Services (BCEHS) ambulances responded to 187 heat exhaustion and 52 heatstroke calls between June 25 and 28. A staggering 15,300 911 calls were taken in the province between June 26 and 27. The emergency services were overwhelmed. There is a major backlog in calls and delayed response times, with some emergency services forced to leave behind the bodies of victims as police and ambulances continued to respond to other calls. Due to the horrifyingly high death count, even the response times of coroners is being severely delayed. “We’ve never experienced anything like this before in Vancouver,” Vancouver Police Department Sergeant Steve Addison told reporters in a Tuesday press conference. Addison said that a surge in calls occurred on Tuesday morning as “people are showing up in their parents’ house or relatives’ house and finding them deceased.” The abnormally intense weather is the result of a “heat dome,” which is a large area of high pressure that extends well up into the atmosphere. The high-pressure system traps sinking air that becomes hotter as it lowers and approaches the ground. This is compounded by heat becoming trapped within the dome, resulting in a “bubble” that prevents rain and cold fronts from entering and cooling down the temperature. East of BC, Alberta Health Services have also reported an increase in heat-related emergency calls, with about six calls per day in Edmonton and 10 in Calgary. BC’s Chief Coroner Lisa Lapointe stated in a press release that the number of deaths will increase as the data continues to be updated. “It is important we do not lose sight of the fact that each reported death is a person with a family and people who cared about them,” Lapointe said at a press conference on Wednesday. Across BC, Alberta, Yukon and the Northwest Territories, over 103 heat records were shattered on Monday alone. The village of Lytton, located at the north end of the Fraser Canyon, broke the all-time record for the highest temperature ever recorded in Canada for three straight days in a row. At 5 p.m. on Tuesday, the Lytton Climate Station reported an astounding temperature of 49.6 degrees Celsius (121 degrees Fahrenheit). This surpasses any temperature ever recorded in Las Vegas, Nevada, located in the Mojave Desert some 1,300 miles to the south in the United States.
Heat Waves Cook Bird Eggs - Some birds have mastered living in the scorching, dry environment of a desert. But even desert-adapted birds can't handle extreme temperatures like those seen during heat waves.A heat wave is said to occur when unusually high temperatures prevail for several days in a region. During one heat wave that lasted eight days, all of the eggs that zebra finches had laid or incubated failed.Native to Australia, zebra finches are flexible with their breeding. They can nest pretty much any time in a year. In February 2017, the birds were nesting during peak Australian summer when the heat wave hit. Maximum air temperatures were above 40°C (104°F) on all eight days.Ideal incubation temperatures for the zebra finch are 36–38°C. "The temperatures that killed these embryos, they are obviously just too much for the embryos to take," Simon Griffith of Macquarie University in Australia told EcoWatch.That summer, as part of a larger study, Griffith and his co-worker visited hundreds of nestboxes to check on their status. A handful of these had been occupied. Using a digital egg monitor, the scientists tested from time to time if the embryos in the active nests had a heartbeat. "Before the heat wave we could still see the heartbeat and then after these two or three days of heat when we checked the eggs, the heartbeat had stopped," Griffith said.Out of 25 egg clutches, 23 had failed to hatch. Just two eggs out of the 100 hatched. Both the chicks died later. "The fact that they lost these eggs wasn't a big problem for the zebra finch but we think it's a bit of a warning," said Griffith. The zebra finch is well-adapted to heat and if it is losing its eggs, Griffith said, "it probably means there are lots of other birds that we weren't studying that also may have lost their eggs."
2021 fire season in California: a new disaster -The current California brush and wildfire season is off to an early start and threatens to surpass last year’s record-setting wildfire season. In 2020, more than 4.3 million acres of vegetation burned, and more than 10,000 homes and buildings were destroyed. Meteorological reports indicate that year-round wildfires have become common across the state and in the Pacific Northwest. A May 2021 article in the San Jose Mercury News confirmed that the California fire season now lasts 12 months. Ominously, Red Flag fire danger warnings were issued in early May, nearly two months before the traditional start of the state’s fire season. The Red Flag warnings issued May 4 included the region on both sides of California’s Central Valley, a large area from Redding in the North to Modesto, east of the San Francisco Bay Area. The area includes Sacramento, the state capital. As of this writing, there are eight active fires, including the Willow Fire (2,877 acres burned, 26 percent contained), the Mohave Fire (2,490 acres burned, 95 percent contained), the Cow Fire (761 acres burned, 85 percent contained), the Inyo Creek Fire (586 acres burned, 30 percent contained), the Overland Fire, near the Mexican border (515 acres burned, 95 percent contained) and the Mesa Fire, north of San Diego (350 acres burned, 40 percent contained). The largest of those fires, the Willow Fire in Los Padres National Forest, has an estimated containment date of July 11, due to the very difficult terrain that fire crews have to confront. The blaze has threatened homes and businesses, leading the Monterrey County Sheriff’s Department to issue evacuation orders for the region northwest of Sacramento. Seventeen major fires have been fully contained after consuming over 17,000 acres, including the Southern Fire (5,366 acres burned), also near the Mexican border. If one adds to that figure the number of fires of 500 acres or less, 29,195 acres have already burned in 3,794 incidents. The combination of a serious drought with a terrible heat wave affecting California and the western US has led to perfect conditions for such conflagrations. Besides drying out fire-prone vegetation, the hot conditions have led to sharp losses in available water needed not only to produce electricity, but irrigate water-thirsty crops, such as almonds and cotton, and to fight the fires themselves.
Hotter than the human body can handle: Pakistan city broils in world’s highest temperatures - When the full midsummer heat hits Jacobabad, the city retreats inside as if sheltering from attack.The streets are deserted and residents hunker down as best they can to weather temperatures that can top 52C (126F).Few have any air conditioning, and blackouts mean often there is no mains electricity. The hospital fills with heatstroke cases from those whose livelihoods mean they must venture out.“When it gets that hot, you can't even stay on your feet,” explains one resident, Zamir Alam.“It's a very, very difficult time when it goes beyond 50C. People do not come out of their houses and the streets are deserted,” Abdul Baqi, a shopkeeper, adds. This city of some 200,000 in Pakistan's Sindh province has long been renowned for its fierce heat, but recent research has conferred an unwelcome scientific distinction. Its mixture of heat and humidity has made it one of only two places on earth to have now officially passed, albeit briefly, a threshold hotter than the human body can withstand. With this region of Pakistan along the Indus Valley considered one of the places most vulnerable to climate change in the world, there are fears that Jacobabad's temperatures may increase further, or other cities may join the club. “The Indus Valley is arguably close to being the number one spot worldwide,” says Tom Matthews, a lecturer in climate science at Loughborough University. “When you look at some of the things to worry about, from water security to extreme heat, it's really the epicentre.” Mr Matthews and colleagues last year analysed global weather station data and found that Jacobabad and Ras al Khaimah, north east of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, have both temporarily crossed the deadly threshold. The milestone had been surpassed decades ahead of predictions from climate change models. The researchers examined what are called wet bulb temperatures. These are taken from a thermometer covered in a water-soaked cloth so they take into account both heat and humidity. Wet bulb thermometer readings are significantly lower than the more familiar dry bulb readings, which do not take humidity into account. Researchers say that at a wet bulb reading of 35C, the body can no longer cool itself by sweating and such a temperature can be fatal in a few hours, even to the fittest people.
Heatwaves Are Scorching Siberia and Eastern Europe Too – Residents in eastern Europe and parts of Siberia unaccustomed to high temperatures are struggling to cope with heatwaves sweeping across the region.Kyiv, Belgrade and Budapest experienced record-high monthly temperatures in June, leading to a spate of drownings in rivers and swimming pools in Serbia as crowds rushed to cool off. In Ukraine, residents ignored authorities’ warnings of an unusually high concentration of bacteria at some beaches as they sought relief in the water.Thermometers in Moscow reached 34.8 degrees Celsius (94.64 Fahrenheit) on Wednesday, the highest reading for June since 1901. Temperatures in eastern Siberia rose above 30°C. While southern European countries have become more accustomed to hot and dry weather in past years as climate change advances, such conditions are not as common in the east, so caught governments off guard.“The frequency of this kind of extremely hot summers is increasing because of the influence of humans in the planet’s climate,” said Nikos Christidis, a senior scientist at the Met Office in the U.K. “How much and how severe the impacts are going to be depends on the levels of adaptation in each particular country.” Extreme heat is likely to continue through much of the coming week, with temperatures in Bulgaria forecast to rise to 39°C in some cities, according to the country’s national weather service. In Romania, seven counties including capital Bucharest are under code red emergency status, with temperatures reaching 41°C in the west of the country.“It is likely that some all-time temperature records will be set during this heatwave,” said Chris Almond, the Met Office’s global forecaster. In western Russia “thunderstorms will help bring temperatures closer to normal during next week, but the east of the affected region is likely to remain hot or very hot.” The sort of extreme heatwaves that were expected to occur in southern Europe twice a century in the early 2000s are now likely to happen twice a decade, according to Christidis. The rest of the continent will get hotter and drier too. Further to the east, the region north of Kazakhstan is extremely cold for this time of the year, according to Carlo Buontempo, director at the Copernicus Climate Change Service.This pattern of hot and cold extremes is associated with variations in the jet stream, a current of strong winds that blows in the upper levels of the atmosphere from west to east. The jet stream in the northern hemisphere is also influencing weather in the western U.S., which is currently undergoing a heatwave and extreme drought.Scientists posit that conditions in eastern Siberia are related both to the jet stream and climate change. On June 20 last year, a weather station in the Russian town of Verkhoyansk registered a reading of 38°C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. On June 20 this year, temperatures at the same station reached 33.1°C, below last year’s record, but still much higher than average.
Destructive storm hits Moscow after record heat, Russia (videos) Destructive rains and strong winds hit Moscow, Russia, on Monday, June 28, 2021, a week after the city sizzled through record heat. Powerful gusts uprooted trees and caused damage to cars on streets, while heavy rains triggered flooding.The metro system halted some lines, while downpours caused very low visibility. The main building of Moscow State University could not be seen through the rain from street view. Lightning also caused a fire at a power station outside the city. Photos and videos on social media showed smashed windows, damaged buildings, torn branches and debris, flooded underpasses, and people walking through inundated streets. The severe weather came after an unusual heat covered western Russia, causing temperatures to soar to a 120-year record of 34.8 °C (94.6 °F),
Severe storms bring giant hail, floods and damaging winds to Germany, Switzerland and France --Severe storms, including hail, heavy rain, and gale-force winds hit parts of Germany Switzerland, and France on Monday and Tuesday, June 28 and 29, 2021, triggering widespread flooding and damage. In Germany, several road tunnels were flooded and rail services were suspended around the city of Stuttgart on Monday night, according to police and rail operator Deutsche Bahn. Photos and videos of the event showed floodwaters gushing down the streets, while car windscreens were smashed by huge hailstones. Emergency services across the southern states of Rheinland-Palatinate and Baden-Wuerttemberg reported hundreds of emergency calls, including for flooded cellars, downed trees, and landslides.In the evening, strong winds tore off a part of the roof of the Stuttgart Opera while roughly 250 people were still inside after a song recital. A huge section of copper cladding crashed in the opera house gardens, managing director Oliver Hendriks told the AFP. No injuries were reported, but the staff was still assessing the damage as rainwater also infiltrated the opera house.In Nottwill, the storms dumped hailstones up to 7 cm (2.8 inches) wide. In Fribourg, authorities received 300 calls for assistance, including to rescue a class of 16 children and two adults stranded during the hailstorm. Six of the children and one adult were taken to the hospital for injuries. At least five were also injured in the German-speaking Swiss cantons, including a cyclist who sustained head injuries. In France, hail lashed the southeastern Vosges region on Tuesday, forcing residents had to use snow shovels and snowplows to clear up the debris.
Huge swathes of farmland destroyed by hailstorms, Europe -Very heavy rain, strong winds, and intense hailstorms affecting parts of central Europe during the second half of June 2021 left more than 66 000 ha (163 090 acres) of crops damaged or destroyed. The figure doubled within just a few days and it still might rise as damage assessment continues.After the first surveys by crop insurance company Vereinigte Hagel (VVaG), they now expect damage of about 20 to 23 million euros, which is more than a double compared to the beginning of last week.The worst affected countries are France, Germany, Austria, and the Czech Republic.Keep in mind that these figures are from insured crops by VVaG. The actual figures are much much higher.
Texas Hailstone Confirmed as Largest Ever in State -Shattered windows, dented cars and damaged homes and businesses became reality for portions of Texas and Oklahoma this past April when a massive hailstorm pelted the two states. Hailstones from the storm ranged in size from golf balls and baseballs to grapefruits -- but one stone, in particular, has made a name for itself for its record-breaking size.A report released by the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) on June 22 confirmed that one hailstone that fell amid the damaging storm broke the record for its "unheard of" size as the largest hailstone in the state of Texas, a State Climate Extremes Committee (SCEC) unanimously confirmed.The stone fell 1 mile south-southwest of the center of Hondo, Texas, roughly around 7:35 p.m. CDT on April 28. It measured 19.73 inches in circumference and 6.4 inches in diameter and weighed a whopping 1.26 pounds with a volume of 40.239 cubic inches.
Second tornado in just 8 days hits Belgium - A second tornado in just 8 days hit Belgium on June 27, 2021, this time in the province of Luxembourg.The tornado hit the hamlet of Bernistrap in Houffalize where a square farmhouse-castle collapsed amid strong winds. While there were no injuries, its inhabitants had to be relocated."There's nothing left. Everything is gone: the roofs, the walls are unstable, the house is uninhabitable," Josette Deville told In24. The tornado also damaged parts of the nearby graveyard.Severe thunderstorms spawned a destructive tornado in the town of Beauraing in Namur province on June 19, injuring 17 people and leaving as many as 92 homes severely damaged, 10 of which were declared unfit for habitation."The wind was incredibly strong. Houses and cars got damaged, trees were uprooted," Beauraing Mayor Marc Lejeune told Francophone public broadcaster RTBF.
Major damage reported after large tornado hits Guyuan, Hebei, China - (video) A large tornado hit Guyuan County in China's northeastern Hebei province on July 1, 2021, causing major damage.According to local reports, poorly anchored brick houses were destroyed and tractors blown over."This is the second significant tornado to hit Guyuan in less than a week," said extreme weather enthusiast Eric Wang. "Atmosphere will be extremely favorable for supercells and even a tornado this afternoon in northern parts of China," Wang added.
Unprecedented cold and record snow engulf parts of South America - A powerful Antarctic cold mass is bringing unprecedented cold, record snow, and frosts to parts of South America, such as Argentina and Brazil.In Brazil, one of the strongest polar air masses in the past years is starting to make temperatures drop in the Rio Grande do Sul. According to MetSul, the cold is forecast to intensify, and its coverage will be very large in South America, spreading across many countries.MetSul also warned of severe frosts that will continue to impact much of Brazil, causing significant damage. Very rare snow is predicted for the country's southern region and outside the high plains. "All numerical models analyzed by MetSul indicate the occurrence of snow in southern Brazil in this polar cold event," wrote MetSul.In Argentina, a cold spell and rare snow have been reported in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe this week. The observatory in the capital registered a daily high record of 8.5 °C (47.3 °F) on June 27, followed by historic overnight lows. On June 28, several areas registered their coldest mornings this year, including -4 °C (24.8 °F) in Mendoza Aero, -4.4 °C (24 °F) in Mendoza Obs, -3.9 °C (25 °F) in Saint Martin, -6.9 °C (19.6 °F) in San Rafael, and -11.7 °C (10.9 °F) in Malargue.The freezing temperatures and record snow has been ongoing in the country for weeks. On June 16, snow fell in Cordoba for the seventh time in 100 years, and it was also the first time the city was covered in white in 14 years. Snow in the area is believed to have occurred on rare occasions in the past 100 years-- in 1912, 1918, 1920, 1955, 1975, and 2007.
Tropical Storm Danny Made Landfall in South Carolina Just After Forming - Tropical Storm Danny - the fourth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season - formed off the Southeast coast Monday, then made landfall hours later in South Carolina, and will spread rain into the Tennessee Valley Tuesday. This system was first dubbed Tropical Depression Four late Monday morning as it was just over 100 miles off the South Carolina coast. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission Monday afternoon confirmed it contained winds strong enough to be considered a tropical storm. Danny then made landfall just before 8 p.m. EDT Monday on Pritchards Island, South Carolina, north of Hilton Head, as a 40-mph tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center. Danny is forecast to weaken quickly and dissipate over north Georgia or northeast Alabama sometime Tuesday. This system won't bring major impacts to the Southeast, but some locally heavy rainfall is expected. The immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina could see a few inches of rain into Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. It might also spread rain toward parts of northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina and northern Alabama by Tuesday. Localized flash flooding is a possibility in all of the areas mentioned above.
Tropical Storm "Danny" makes landfall in South Carolina, the first June landfall since 1867 (videos) Tropical Storm "Danny" -- the 4th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season -- has made landfall in South Carolina at 23:30 UTC on June 28, 2021. This is the first named storm to make landfall in the state of South Carolina in the month of June since Hurricane One in 1867. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the coast of South Carolina from Edisto Beach northeastward to South Santee River ahead while Danny was still a tropical depression at 15:00 UTC on June 28. Danny formed at 19:05 UTC when its center was located about 95 km (60 miles) ESE of Beaufort and 70 km (45 miles) SSE of Charleston, South Carolina. Its maximum sustained winds were 65 km/h (40 mph) and minimum central pressure 1 014 hPa. The storm was moving WNW at 26 km/h (16 mph). By 21:00 UTC, Danny had maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h (45 mph). Its center was located 55 km (35 miles) E of Beaufort and 60 km (37 miles) SSW of Charleston. It made landfall just north of Hilton Head on Pritchards Island, South Carolina at 23:30 UTC on June 28 with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 1 010 hPa. Danny weakened to a tropical depression at 03:00 UTC on June 29 and dissipated inland over Georgia at 09:00 UTC. It produced rainfall totals of up to 76 mm (3 inches) in parts of South Carolina in a matter of hours, causing minor flash floods in populated areas. Lightning resulted in damage to some structures, while strong winds downed some trees in Savannah, Georgia. Danny produced heavy rainfall across parts of Metro Atlanta as it tracked westward.
Tropical Storm Elsa forms, could impact Florida - Tropical storm watches and warnings are up for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean ahead of Elsa, which formed Thursday morning. By early next week, the tropical storm could be a problem for parts of Florida and/or the Gulf Coast.Developing just hours after the calendar flipped to July, Elsa became the fifth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. On average, the Atlantic doesn’t crank out its fifth named storm until the end of August.Elsa became the earliest fifth named storm ever observed, breaking the record set last year when Edouard formed on July 6. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season produced a record-setting 30 named storms.According to Brian McNoldy, a tropical weather expert at the University of Miami and a Capital Weather Gang contributor, Elsa formed farther east than only one previous storm this early in the season. Normally, at this time of year, storms form in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, rather than east of the Lesser Antilles where Elsa was born.At 11 a.m. Thursday, Elsa was located about 680 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands in the west-central tropical Atlantic, moving west at a swift 28 mph. Winds were up to 45 mph, and the system’s air pressure continued to fall as it intensified. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, while a watch covers Grenada and Guadeloupe.
Haiti under alert as Tropical Storm Elsa approaches. The Dominican Republic also watching --There is never a good time for a storm in Haiti. But the approaching Tropical Storm Elsa could not have come at a worse time.Already knee-deep in a political, economic, hunger and deadly gang crisis, Haiti’s emergency disaster response agency Thursday issued a yellow alert to the population, warning that rain and gusty winds are coming. The Office of Civil Protection asked Haitians to start securing important documents in plastic bags, prepare food kits and prepare to evacuate areas in danger of flooding and landslides.Boaters and fishermen around the southern coastline and the island of La Gonave were asked to take precautions. “The trajectory is South, Southeast, Grand Anse and Nippes” regional departments, the head of the Office of Civil Protection, Jerry Chandler, said. “But the message we are giving today is valid for all of the departments. I don’t want to be an alarmist, but we are asking everyone to take precautions because the vulnerability that exists in the country.” Widespread deforestation in Haiti, along with the poor conditions of rivers and ravines, means that any heavy amount of rain can lead to mudslides and tragedy. There is now the added pressure of the surging COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing gang clashes at the southern entrance of Port-au-Prince, which leads to the four regions that could be heavily impacted by Elsa. Ongoing gang battles that erupted on June 1 and remain ongoing have forced the displacement of more than 16,000 Haitians from the Martissant neighborhood and blocked motorists from crossing. On Thursday, the gang federation known as G-9 held a protest on the streets of the capital. As of June, an upsurge of gang clashes has resulted in the displacement of an estimated 14,000 civilians in the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince, the United Nations said. Sporadic inter-gang violence have also erupted in the Delmas 2 neighborhood of the capital and its surroundings, affecting Camp la Piste, a displacement site from the 2010 earthquake, which houses disabled people. “If push comes to shove and we get to a severe situation, we will refer to the various institutions that are on board in our disaster management system,” he said, adding that this includes the Haiti National Police and ministry of interior. “The president’s office is in constant contact with us as we are all following the evolution of Elsa.”
Japan mudslide: About 20 people missing in Atami city – CNN - At least two people are thought to be dead and some 20 people are missing after a mudslide swept across a seaside city around 60 miles southwest of Tokyo, sweeping away homes amid Japan's rainy season.Footage posted on social media showed the powerful black mudslide shoot down a mountainside, engulfing homes and infrastructure as locals watched in horror.The giant mudslide in Atami, Shizuoka prefecture, which occurred around 10:30 a.m. local time, came after parts of the region was hit by torrential rain.Police and firefighters have been searching for the missing and prefectural officials have requested help from Japan's Self-Defense Force.As of 2 p.m. local time, about 2,830 households in the city were out of power, according to the Tokyo Electric Power Company.The government has set up a task force to respond to the disaster and collect information as heavy rainfall sweeps areas along the Pacific coast in central and eastern Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga expressed his condolences to the victims of the landslide and stressed that members of the police, fire department service, Japan Coast Guard, and Japan Self-Defense Forces were doing their utmost to save lives, rescue people and help with evacuations.
Large Saharan dust cloud moving over the Atlantic Ocean (satellite imagery, graphics)
Taal Volcano Advisory: Vog observed over Taal Caldera, pronounced haze over the caldera region - Volcanic smog or vog has been observed over Taal Caldera resulting from continued volcanic SO2 gas emission from the Main Crater. High levels of volcanic sulfur dioxide or SO2 gas emissions and steam-rich plumes that rose as much as 3 km (9 842 feet) high have been observed from the Taal Main Crater over the past two days. SO2 flux on June 27 averaged 4 771 tonnes/day while atmospheric temperatures of 30 °C (86 °F), relative humidity of 75% and wind velocities that slowed to 1 to 0 meters/second at near-surface levels prevailed over Taal Volcano Island based on All-Weather Systems station data. These atmospheric conditions, especially the near-absence of air movement, resulted in the formation of volcanic smog or vog that brought a pronounced haze over the Taal Caldera region. Should SO2 gas emission continue at the same rate (past week average of ~4 330 tonnes/day) or increase and atmospheric conditions promote the formation of vog, communities surrounding Taal Lake are advised to take necessary precautions, PHIVOLCS warns. Vog is a type of air pollution that is caused by volcanoes. It consists of fine droplets containing volcanic gas such as SO2 which is acidic and can cause irritation of the eyes, throat and respiratory tract in severities depending on the gas concentrations and durations of exposure
Highest ever recorded SO2 emission over Taal, adverse effects reported, Philippines - High levels of volcanic sulfur dioxide or SO2 gas emissions and tall, steam-rich plumes have continued to be produced from the Taal Main Crater since this past weekend, PHIVOLCS reported on Tuesday, June 29, 2021. Unprecedented SO2 emissions were recorded on June 28, causing adverse effects on some residents living near the volcano. SO2 emission on June 28, 2021, averaged 14 326 tonnes/day -- the highest ever recorded in Taal -- while atmospheric temperatures of 34 °C (93.2 °F), relative humidity of 53%, and wind velocities of 1 to 4 meters/second within 3 km (1.8 miles) of the atmosphere prevail over Taal Volcano today, June 29. The high SO2 flux, water vapor emitted in plumes, weak air movement, and solar radiation will continue to produce volcanic smog or vog over the Taal Caldera region, particularly towards the northeast and eastern lakeshore communities along the current wind direction. PHIVOLCS has received reports of adverse effects on some residents of lakeshore Tanauan City and Talisay Municipality facing Taal Volcano Island, and on some workers of aquaculture in Taal Lake, have been received by DOST-PHIVOLCS. "In view of continuous and unprecedented high SO2 degassing from Taal Main Crater, we recommend that health checks be conducted by local government officials on communities affected by vog to assess the severity of SO2 impacts on their constituents and to consider temporary evacuation of severely exposed residents to safer areas," PHIVOLCS said. Local government units (LGU) were advised to regularly check the weather and wind forecasts of PAGASA in order to assess the potential exposure of their constituents so long as SO2 emission remains elevated. Lastly, LGUs were advised to monitor activities of aquaculture workers to ensure that no one ventures too closely to Taal Volcano Island and gets exposed to lethal concentrations of volcanic SO2. Vog consists of fine droplets containing volcanic gas such as SO2 which is acidic and can cause irritation of the eyes, throat and respiratory tract in severities depending on the gas concentrations and durations of exposure. People who may be particularly sensitive to vog are those with health conditions such as asthma, lung disease and heart disease, the elderly, pregnant women and children. Alert Level 2 (Increased Unrest) remains in effect over Taal Volcano. Sudden steam- or gas-driven explosions and lethal accumulations or expulsions of volcanic gas can occur and threaten areas within and around Taal Volcano Island (TVI). Venturing into TVI is strictly prohibited.
Phreatomagmatic eruption at Taal volcano, Alert Level raised to 3, Philippines (video0 A phreatomagmatic eruption took place at Taal volcano, Philippines at 07:16 UTC (15:16 LT) on July 1, 2021, generating a short-lived dark plume up to 1 km (3 300 feet). Anomalously high volcanic SO2 gas emission preceded the eruption, averaging 14 241 tonnes/day and 13 287 tonnes/day on June 28 and July 1, respectively. A marked increase in volcanic gas upwelling also began on June 28, generating plumes that rose some 3 km (9 840 feet) above Taal Volcano Island.In view of the above, DOST-PHIVOLCS has raised the alert status from Alert Level 2 to 3."This means that there is magmatic intrusion at the Main Crater that may further drive succeeding eruptions," PHIVOLCS said. The agency strongly recommends Taal Volcano Island and high-risk barangays of Agoncillo and Laurel, Batangas be evacuated due to the possible hazards of pyroclastic density currents and volcanic tsunami.
Powerful phreatic eruption at Rincon de la Vieja, Costa Rica - A powerful phreatic eruption took place at Rincon de la Vieja volcano, Costa Rica at 11:40 UTC (05:40 LT) on June 28, 2021.The event lasted about 3 minutes, ejecting dense column of gas and steam, with some amount of ash, up to 4.2 km (14 000 feet) above sea level, drifting N-NW.The National Commission for Risk Prevention and Emergency Management said it had deployed a team to evaluate the situation, and urged people not to approach the site.The last eruptive phase of this volcano lasted from January 30 to November 3, 2020 (VEI 2).
Earth is trapping twice as much heat as it did in 2005 -Planet Earth is now trapping twice as much heat as it did 14 years ago, according to findings of a new study, which raise concerns about the possible acceleration of climate change. For the study, researchers looked at data from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument, which flies on several NASA Earth-observation satellites and measures how much energy the planet absorbs in the form of sunlight and how much of that it emits back into space in the form of infrared radiation. The difference between the incoming and outflowing energy is called the energy imbalance, and the study found that in the period between 2005 and 2019 the imbalance doubled compared to the years before. The scientists used additional data from Argo, an international network of robotic sensors distributed all over the world’s oceans, which measure the rate at which oceans heat up. The researchers said comparing CERES data to Argo helped strengthen the findings as global oceans are known to absorb up to 90% of the excess energy trapped by the planet."The two very independent ways of looking at changes in Earth's energy imbalance are in really, really good agreement, and they're both showing this very large trend," Norman Loeb, lead author for the new study and principal investigator for CERES at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, said in a statement. "The trends we found were quite alarming in a sense," he added.Loeb and his team concluded the increased heating is a result of both naturally occurring and human-made processes. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane in Earth's atmosphere lead to more heat being trapped by the planet. Meanwhile, the shrinking size of ice sheets, caused by the planet's warming, leads to less of the incoming energy being reflected away from the planet's surface.
Crushing climate impacts to hit sooner than feared: draft UN report - Climate change will fundamentally reshape life on Earth in the coming decades, even if humans can tame planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, according to a landmark draft report from the UN's climate science advisors obtained by AFP. Species extinction, more widespread disease, unliveable heat, ecosystem collapse, cities menaced by rising seas—these and other devastating climate impacts are accelerating and bound to become painfully obvious before a child born today turns 30. The choices societies make now will determine whether our species thrives or simply survives as the 21st century unfolds, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says in a draft report seen exclusively by AFP. But dangerous thresholds are closer than once thought, and dire consequences stemming from decades of unbridled carbon pollution are unavoidable in the short term. "The worst is yet to come, affecting our children's and grandchildren's lives much more than our own," the report says. By far the most comprehensive catalogue ever assembled of how climate change is upending our world, the report reads like a 4,000-page indictment of humanity's stewardship of the planet. But the document, designed to influence critical policy decisions, is not scheduled for release until February 2022—too late for crunch UN summits this year on climate, biodiversity and food systems, some scientists say. In response to AFP's reporting, the IPCC released a statement saying it "does not comment on the contents of draft reports while work is still ongoing".
WWF Says Mediterranean Heating 20% Faster Than World's Oceans -Countries fringing the Mediterranean need to turn at least 30% of its waters into Protected Maritime Areas (MPAs) by 2030 and rein in overfishing and pollution, urged the World Wide Fund for Nature's (WWF) in a report published by its German branch Tuesday.The 26-page WWF report also calls for "well-connected" efforts between riparian nations to save already depleted Mediterranean seagrass beds and coral clusters — home to many fish species and vital in stabilizing coastlines and capturing atmospheric carbon dioxide.The report also warns residents they face losing fishing livelihoods and Mediterranean culture like cuisine if biodiversity is not restored and deadly industrial impacts reduced..Although it covers an area of only 1% compared to all world seas, the Mediterranean is home to 10% of all known maritime species, with a quarter of these creatures endemic to the enclosed sea basin between Africa and Europe.Suez Canal species inflows amid shipping from the Red Sea and tropical warming, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, had drawn 986 non-indigenous species, the report said."Spreading north and west every year" this process of tropicalization was displacing old species preferring cooler waters, said the WWF, citing replacement jellyfish plaguing fishers and tourists alike and "complete" upheavals in maritime ecology.One example it gave was the shallow Israeli coastal shelf. Only 5-12% of native molluscs were still present, and that seascape had become "unrecognizable," said researcher Paolo Albano in the report. "Voracious" rabbitfish (Siganus rivulatus and Siganus luridus) had caused a 40% reduction in native Mediterranean species in some waters. Swimming in large shoals, they gobbled up algae forests, such as large seaweeds, leaving largely rocky barrens underwater off Greece and Turkey. In Turkey's Gokova area, a massive 98% of its herbivore fish biomass was already rabbitfish.Another invader, the lionfish (Pterois miles), first caught in an Israeli trawl in 1991, had since spread to waters off Lebanon and Greece, but also off Libya and Italy. With venomous spines, it ate "large quantities of small native fish and crustaceans," said the WWF, and like rabbitfish was likely to spread "across the Mediterranean."
‘The water is coming’: Florida Keys faces stark reality as seas rise -- The Florida Keys is now acknowledging a previously unthinkable reality: it faces being overwhelmed by the rising seas and not every home can be saved.Following a grueling seven-hour public meeting on Monday, held in the appropriately named city of Marathon, officials agreed to push ahead with a plan to elevate streets throughout the Keys to keep them from perpetual flooding, while admitting they do not have the money to do so.The string of coral cay islands that unspool from the southern tip of Florida finds itself on the frontline of the climate crisis, forcing unenviable choices upon a place that styles itself as sunshine-drenched idyll. The lives of Keys residents – a mixture of wealthy, older white people, the one in four who are Hispanic or Latino, and those struggling in poverty – face being upendedIf the funding isn’t found, the Keys will become one of the first places in the US – and certainly not the last – to inform residents that certain areas will have to be surrendered to the oncoming tides.“The water is coming and we can’t stop it,” said Michelle Coldiron, mayor of Monroe county, which encompasses the Keys. “Some homes will have to be elevated, some will have to be bought out. It’s very difficult to have these conversations with homeowners, because this is where they live. It can get very emotional.”Once people are unable to secure mortgages and insurance for soaked homes, the Keys will cease to be a livable place long before it’s fully underwater, according to Harold Wanless, a geographer at the University of Miami. “People don’t have a concept of what sea level rise will do to them. They just can’t conceive it,” he said.On Monday, the county gave details of its plan to spend $1.8bn over the next 25 years to raise 150 miles of roads in the Keys, deploying a mixture of new drains, pump stations and vegetation to prevent the streets becoming inundated with seawater. The heightened roadways are eagerly anticipated by residents who told the meeting of cars being ruined by the salt water and of donning boots to wade to front doors.“The roads are shot, they’re full of cracks, the water is permeating up,” said Kimberly Sikora, who lives in a vulnerable neighborhood of Key Largo called Stillwright Point that is still awaiting a full road elevation proposal. “I’m just looking for some kind of relief.”But Monroe county’s budget will not cover the raising of all the roads, nor any mass buyout of homes, and an appeal to Florida state lawmakers to levy a new tax to cover these mounting costs has been rebuffed. Further costs will pile up as the county grapples with how – and who pays - to keep critical infrastructure such as sewers and power substations, as well as people’s homes, from being flooded along with the roads.
410 Million People at Risk From Sea Level Rise by 2100, Study Finds - 
Close to half a billion people could be in the path of sea level rise by 2100, a first-of-its-kind analysis has shown.The study, published in Nature Communications Tuesday, found that 267 million people currently live on land that is less than two meters (approximately 6.6 feet) above sea level, the range that is the most vulnerable to rising water levels. By 2100, the number at risk could climb to 410 million people."These numbers are another wake-up call about the immense number of people at risk in low-lying areas, particularly in vulnerable countries in the global South, where people are often experiencing these risks as part of a toxic mix with other risk factors, currently also including Covid-19," Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contributing lead author Maarten van Aalst, who was not involved with the study, toldThe Guardian in response to the results.Beyond its urgent warning, the new study was notable because of how it took land elevation into account."Coastal flood risk assessments require accurate land elevation data," the study co-authors wrote. "Those to date existed only for limited parts of the world, which has resulted in high uncertainty in projections of land area at risk of sea-level rise."To solve this problem, the Netherlands-based researchers used the first-ever model of worldwide elevation based on satellite LiDAR data. LiDAR is a method for measuring elevation by pulsing laser light down to Earth's surface, the Nature Publishing Group explained in a press release. It has not been used before partly because it is difficult to access for much of the world."In some countries like the Netherlands, or parts of the UK, and much of the U.S., they have excellent data for these coastal zones, because they fly Lidar every four years. It costs tens of millions of euros just to cover the Netherlands. Obviously in much of the world, people don't have that kind of funding," study author Dr. Aljosja Hooijer of the think-tank Deltares told The Guardian.Finally using this data enabled the researchers to understand how many people were already vulnerable toclimate-crisis-driven flooding, which is caused both by rising sea levels and increasingly severe storms, the press release explained.
Experts Warn Florida Tower Disaster Is Climate Emergency ‘Wake-Up Call’ -- In the search for answers following last week’s disintegration of a high-rise condominium tower near Miami, some experts are cautiously pointing to the climate emergency as a possible culprit—or at the very least a risk multiplier in the disaster—underscoring the need for urgent climate and infrastructure action. However, officials and experts have also begun the long and daunting task of determining what caused the building to fail. A 2018 engineering report on the 12-story tower noted design flaws and “major structural damage,” including a deteriorating roof, defective waterproofing, and crumbling concrete columns and rusting rebar in the building’s underground garage. The report warned that some of these problems could cause “exponential damage” in the future. With so much well-documented existing damage, and with repairs to the building underway at the time it disintegrated, experts have been reluctant to attribute the collapse to any single cause. However, numerous scientists and other experts say that rising sea levels and more intense tidal flooding related to the climate emergency could have played a significant role in the disaster.As a 5.9-inch rise in local sea levels and 320% surge in nuisance flooding in the area since the mid-1990s attests, metro Miami is particularly susceptible to the consequences of the climate emergency. Last year, a report (pdf) from Resources for the Future, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, stated that Miami is “one of the most at-risk cities in the world from the damages caused by coastal flooding and storms.”Atorod Azizinamini, who directs the Moss School of Construction, Infrastructure, and Sustainability at Florida International University (FIU), toldThe Palm Beach Post that “climate change can play a role” in disasters like the Champlain Towers South collapse. “It can cause settlement of the ground with sea level rise, and corrosion.”Zhong-Ren Peng, director of the International Center for Adaptation Planning and Design at the University of Florida, told The Palm Beach Post that “sea level rise does cause potential corrosion and if that was happening, it’s possible it could not handle the weight of the building.”“I think this could be a wake-up call for coastal developments,” warned Peng.Albert Slap, chief executive of the Boca Raton, Florida-based construction risk assessment company RiskFootprint, explained to The Washington Post that “groundwater enters the pores of the concrete and ultimately weakens it and erodes it. So the foundations are subject to a lot of geological forces that could compact the soil underneath. It could cause voids. We just don’t know.”Slap said the Champlain Towers South disaster “could be a canary-in-the-coal-mine-type event.” “It’s not just one building,” he added. “This could be something that could affect other buildings.”
Florida condo collapse highlights concerns over stability of coastal buildings impacted by effects of climate change - As rescue operations continue and desperate families struggle to find missing loved ones, more questions have arisen as to the structural integrity of other high-rises similar to Champlain Towers South and the vulnerability of countless buildings adjoining the Florida shoreline. The catastrophe in Surfside has highlighted critical dangers facing other infrastructure in the region, built in unstable areas that are being subjected to the consequences of human-induced climate change. While both the Democratic and Republican parties have largely presented the tragedy as an isolated issue, abundant evidence has emerged in recent years showing that Florida’s geological base is threatened by rising sea levels and the erosion of it’s beaches, posing significant risks to buildings all along the state’s coast line. The foundations of countless structures are made of material incapable of dealing with corrosive seawater. In an interview with the Guardian, Professor Zhong-Ren Peng, an expert on sea level rise at the University of Florida, said that the materials used for the building’s base were not built to withstand salt water intrusion, which can corrode substantial amounts of steel and concrete. “Cracks in the concrete allows more sea water to get in, which causes further reactions and the spreading of cracks,” Peng noted. Negligence of these critical defects can invariably lead to the type of structural failure witnessed in Surfside. The entire Florida peninsula region sits on top of karst limestone, a porous rock that allows rising seawater to accumulate around the base of buildings. A weakness of limestone material is that cavities can form inside them in which percolating solutions, such as salty water, can mix with minerals inside the material, thereby dissolving the rocks and undermining the foundations. Karst is a term used to describe an environment where the bulk of its rocks can dissolve, opening up sinkholes and caves, One theory that has been floated as to the cause of the Champlain collapse has been a widening sinkhole underneath the structure. The theory is plausible, as large sinkholes have opened up elsewhere in the state, swallowing up roadways, vehicles and in a few cases, entire buildings. In reviewing video and pictures of the Champlain Towers, experts have said it seems as if the collapse started around the building’s pool deck. This lines up with reports that one of those missing in the rubble called her husband just before the building fell, telling him that she saw a hole open up where the pool deck used to be moments before the collapse. The inundation of limestone with seawater on a large scale can lead to significant outbreaks of sinkholes. This has dire implications for the state’s infrastructure, since the foundation which virtually all of Florida’s buildings are built on, including its major towers and high-rises, is subject to dissolution.
Biden defends climate policies: AOC joins protests outside White House - President Biden in an op-ed published by Yahoo! News Monday pledged to do more to tackle climate change as he touted the $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal he reached with a group of bipartisan senators. Biden has faced criticism from progressives over the agreement for not doing enough to address issues such as climate change. Reps. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) joined hundreds of protesters outside the White House Monday to demand the president act on the matter. "While the bill is missing some critical initiatives on climate change that I proposed — initiatives I intend to pass in the reconciliation bill — the infrastructure deal nonetheless represents a crucial step forward in building our clean energy future," Biden wrote in his op-ed. "It would make the largest investment in clean energy transmission in American history, modernizing our power grid to accelerate the build-out of zero-carbon, renewable energy. It would replace thousands of gas-guzzling buses with clean, electric ones — including 35,000 electric school buses. It would cap abandoned wells leaking methane gas. "And more: The deal would deploy a nationwide network of charging stations for electric vehicles — 500,000 stations in total. It makes historic investments in rail and transit that will get passenger vehicles off the road and reduce fossil fuel consumption. There's much more work to do to reach our ambitious climate goals, but the investments in this deal are critical in facilitating our transition to a clean energy economy.": Ocasio-Cortez vowed to the protest crowd to push for Green New Deal policies. She noted that when the New Deal-era Civilian Conservation Corps was introduced, they were told it was too ambitious."We hired and mobilized a quarter-million people in three months," she said. "We're going to get that into this infrastructure bill." Bush said "police violence and climate change are not standalone issues," as she advocated to act on policies including the People's Response Act — a bill she introduced to Congress Monday, which would create an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services to research and fund alternatives to incarceration and policing.
Climate court cases would be stronger if they included extreme event attribution - Lawsuits filed against fossil fuel companies and governments for causing global warming have met a decidedly mixed fate, with most getting dismissed for failing to prove a causal link between emitters' actions and harm done to the plaintiffs. However, that could soon change, a new study finds. Courts are an important venue for cities, states and citizens’ groups seeking carbon-cutting mandates — especially as governments fail to slash greenhouse gases fast enough to avoid potentially devastating effects. There have been a few recent successes in court cases, such as the move by a court in the Netherlands to require Royal Dutch Shell to make deeper cuts to its emissions.Now a new study published Monday in Nature Climate Change that examined 73 court cases examined in 14 jurisdictions finds that plaintiffs aren't using the latest and most compelling scientific evidence in court.Such evidence, researchers argue in the study, could help plaintiffs prove that a particular fossil fuel company or government has caused them harm via global warming.The study finds that ongoing improvements in climate "attribution" science could help plaintiffs meet evidentiary tests for showing causation. That's the research field that explores the extent to which human-caused climate change is altering the likelihood and severity of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and floods.The researchers found that those arguing climate cases are simply not taking advantage of the latest climate science findings. For example, the study says it's now possible to break down the attribution of climate impacts to individual greenhouse gas emitters, such as a single oil and gas company. "Attribution science is a fundamental source of evidence for informing and substantiating causal claims about climate change impacts," the study states. The study concludes that courts have wrongly found that it is too difficult to determine how an individual emitter has caused particular climate impacts. "There seems to be a considerable lag between scientific understanding and that filtering through into society. A much larger lag than I had expected," Friederike Otto, a climate scientist who researchers extreme event attribution at the University of Oxford and study co-author, told Axios."For me, as scientists, that means we really need to explain more what we do, how we do it, and what that means in terms of what we know and what we don’t know for losses from climate change," she said.
In Video, Exxon Lobbyist Describes Efforts to Undercut Climate Action - The New York Times--The veteran oil-industry lobbyist was told he was meeting with a recruiter. But the video call, which was secretly recorded, was part of an elaborate sting operation by an individual working for the environmental group Greenpeace UK. During the call, Keith McCoy, a senior director of federal relations for Exxon Mobil, described how the oil and gas giant targeted a number of influential United States senators in an effort to weaken climate action in President Biden’s flagship infrastructure plan. That plan now contains few of the ambitious ideas initially proposed by Mr. Biden to cut the burning of fossil fuels, the main driver of climate change. Mr. McCoy also said on the recording that Exxon’s support for a tax on carbon dioxide was “a great talking point” for the oil company, but that he believes the tax will never happen. He also said that the company has in the past aggressively fought climate science through “shadow groups.” On Wednesday, excerpts from the conversation were aired by the British broadcaster Channel 4. The affiliate of Greenpeace that recorded the video, Unearthed, also released excerpts. In a statement, Darren Woods, Exxon’s chief executive, said the comments “in no way represent the company’s position on a variety of issues, including climate policy, and our firm commitment that carbon pricing is important to addressing climate change.” Mr. McCoy and another lobbyist interviewed by Greenpeace “were never involved in developing the company’s policy positions on the issues discussed,” he said. “We condemn the statements and are deeply apologetic for them, including comments regarding interactions with elected officials...
LOBBYING: Lawmakers threaten Exxon probe after climate video -- Thursday, July 1, 2021 -- Exxon Mobil Corp. scrambled to respond yesterday to a secretive video recording that detailed the company's lobbying practices, but the incident could be an even greater impetus for a congressional inquiry as a House subcommittee chairman continued to warn of subpoenas for top executives.
Come Clean, Part 5 - Why Everyone's Talking About Renewable Diesel --Renewable diesel is a popular topic in the transportation fuel space, and for good reason. For one, RD provides a lower-carbon, renewable-based alternative to petroleum-based diesel; for another, it’s a chemical twin of and therefore a “drop-in” replacement for ultra-low sulfur diesel. But, most of all, there are the large financial incentives provided by California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, the U.S. Biodiesel Tax Credit, and other programs, which can make RD production highly profitable. Driven by these factors, there’s a lot of renewable diesel production capacity under construction or on the drawing board: everything from greenfield projects to expansions of existing RD refineries to conversions of old-school refineries so they can make RD. Today, we put the spotlight on RD and discuss how it differs from biodiesel, how it’s produced, and the new RD capacity coming online in North America. Our blog series on low carbon fuel policies in the U.S. and Canada has garnered a lot of attention. There’s no doubt about it, energy folks want to learn all they can about alternative fuels, including the impact that low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) programs could have on refined products markets. To quickly recap what we’ve said so far, in Part 1we provided an overview of various policies that have been adopted to reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector, such as fuel economy standards, renewable blending requirements, zero emission vehicle mandates, and LCFS programs in locations such as California, Oregon, British Columbia, and Canada generally via its Clean Fuel Standard. In Part 2, we focused on California’s LCFS, which was implemented in January 2011 and which grew out of a number of earlier efforts there to improve air quality and, more recently, reduce GHG emissions. The LCFS assigns a carbon intensity (CI) target value for petroleum-based gasoline and diesel fuels, as well as their substitutes, such as ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel. (CI is an assessment of the GHG emissions associated with producing, distributing, and consuming a fuel, and is measured in grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule, or gCO2e/MJ.) The LCFS then sets maximum CI limits on finished gasoline and diesel fuel consumed in California each year on a gradually declining scale to meet the 2030 goal of a 20% reduction in the carbon intensity of motor fuels consumed in the state. In Part 3, we turned our attention to ethanol, the use of which in gasoline has been prevalent for many years. Ethanol is a biofuel that is found in nearly 98% of the gasoline purchased at retail stations in the U.S., in most cases accounting for 10% of the gasoline at the pump. This high-octane biofuel has grown in popularity around the world, particularly over the last 20 years, due to regulations that require or incentivize its use. As governments continue to evaluate regulations to control GHG emissions, ethanol has been overshadowed by some other biofuels lately, but it is expected to continue to play an important role as a pathway for meeting low-carbon mandates. Last time, inPart 4, we looked at biodiesel. We noted that while the incentives for producing biodiesel are substantial, there are two big catches with the fuel: a limited supply of feedstocks and properties limiting how much can be blended with petroleum-based diesel. And that’s a perfect segue to renewable diesel, which has no such “blend wall” — and which has been receiving a lot of press the past couple of years, including in the RBN blogosphere. …
The US wants to make EV batteries without these foreign metals. Should it? --The electric vehicle or EV revolution owes its existence to lithium batteries, and those batteries have a cocktail of specialized minerals to thank for their high performance. In most cases, that cocktail’s ingredient list includes cobalt and nickel, minerals that help deliver the long lifespan and range that consumers increasingly demand of EVs. But with hundreds of millions of new EVs expected to hit the streets in the coming decades, skyrocketing demand for nickel and cobalt could strain mineral supply chains. Fearing a supply shortage that would slow the EV boom, the U.S. Department of Energy is now proposing that we eliminate cobalt and nickel from batteries altogether.Earlier this month, the Federal Consortium for Advanced Batteries, a cross-agency group chaired by the Department of Energy, released the first ever National Blueprint for Lithium Batteries to guide the development of a domestic battery industry that helps the U.S. meet its climate targets. Among other goals, the blueprint calls for eliminating nickel and cobalt from lithium batteries by 2030 to develop “a stronger, more secure and resilient supply chain.” That goal is more challenging — and fraught — than it may sound. While experts say nickel- and cobalt-free batteries that outperform today’s commercial counterparts could be commercialized in the next 10 years, mass adoption by the EV industry is likely to take far longer. And while such batteries might reduce the American auto industry’s vulnerability to future supply shocks, it could also have complex impacts on mining abroad. Mining watchdogs, who worry that eliminating certain metals from batteries will increase the pressure to extract others, say policymakers and auto manufacturers should focus on responsible sourcing and battery recycling instead. EV batteries come in a variety of shapes, sizes, and chemistries, but the market is currently dominated by so-called NMC batteries, which contain nickel, manganese, and cobalt in their cathodes. All of these metals have a specific role to play: Nickel boosts the battery’s energy density and range, cobalt helps extend battery lifespan, and manganese helps batteries operate more safely at higher temperatures. The proportions favored by automakers are optimized “to give the best performance between parameters of lifetime, safety, cost and power,” said Jason Croy, a materials scientist at Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois. Batteries that don’t contain cobalt or nickel already exist, but there are tradeoffs. Lithium manganese oxide or LMO batteries, used in the e-bike market and some commercial vehicles, are known for their high performance and long lifespan, but they fall short of NMC batteries when it comes to energy density. Cheap and durable lithium iron phosphate or LFP batteries have made inroads in the Chinese EV market, where Tesla uses them in its standard-range Model 3 cars. However, these batteries also have limited energy storage capacity and range compared with their NMC cousins. That said, concerns over mineral scarcity and human rights abuses at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo or DRC, where 70 percent of the world’s cobalt originates, have spurred manufacturers to significantly reduce the cobalt content of EV batteries over the past decade. The EV industry hasn’t faced the same kind of pressure to reduce its nickel use, but “there’s a lot of options on the table” should it want to, says Venkat Viswanathan, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon University who is working on next-generation batteries. For instance, lithium-rich cathodes that contain little to no nickel or cobalt and store more energy than NMC batteries are an active area of research, though more work is needed to improve their lifespan for commercial applications.
Cal ISO Poised to Issue Monday Flex Alert With Temperatures Expected to Soar – (CBS SF) — California’s power grid operator is poised to call a flex alert for Monday due to high heat expected to impact much of the state. In a heat bulletin sent out Sunday, the California Independent System Operator said consumers may need to conserve energy to keep the grid stable. On Monday, temperatures in the California inland areas are forecast to be in the mid 90s to mid-100s, which is about 4 to 8 degrees above normal for Northern California and 6 to 15 degrees above normal in Southern California. Temperatures along the Southern California coast are forecast to be slightly above normal with temperatures ranging from mid-70s to the middle and upper 80s. If weather or system conditions worsen, the ISO may issue a series of notifications to access additional resources, and prepare market participants and the public for potential energy shortages and the need to conserve.
Blackout Risk And Electricity Prices Are Spiking In California - Electricity prices for Californians are spiking, but so is the danger of blackouts—both planned and unplanned. Exceptional drought forecasts for this summer prompted PG&E to warnearlier this month that it might need to implement more rolling blackouts. The utility added, however, that they would likely last less than last year’s.Then, last week, the California Independent System Operator issued a so-called flex alert, which effectively means it asked people to use less electricity between 5 pm and 10 pm because of heightened energy consumption during that time of day.Last year, RealClear Energy’s Robert Bryce wrote this week, electricity prices in California jumped by 7.5 percent. This was the highest price hike for electricity across the States and seven times the average for the country. This means that as of end-2020, Californians were paying 70 percent more for electricity than people living in other states. At the same time, the security of their energy supply is increasingly questionable.A more severe than usual drought in the state this year has depleted reservoirs and lakes, including the ones feeding some of the largest hydropower facilities. This means lower output from hydropower stations. This may well force the state with ambitious emission-reduction targets to rely more on its remaining natural gas-powered plants for baseload electricity supply.These problems, which are set to deepen with time, have their roots far in the past, according to a recent New York Times interview with Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at the University of Houston.According to Hirs, decades ago, California swam in excess generation capacity that sat idle for most of the year because of the mild climate. To reduce this capacity overhang, the state began closing these power plants and replacing them with wind and solar farms—and with imports.To date, the expert noted, California imports some 35 percent of its electricity.“That’s a big problem, because now it’s not just California’s grid reliability you have to worry about, it’s your neighbors,” Hirs said. “That’s what happened last August: The heat wave got everybody.”
Blackouts Loom in California as Electricity Prices Are 'Absolutely Exploding' -Two inexorable energy trends are underway in California: soaring electricity prices and ever-worsening reliability - and both trends bode ill for the state's low- and middle-income consumers. Last week, the state's grid operator, the California Independent System Operator, issued a "flex alert" that asked the state's consumers to reduce their power use "to reduce stress on the grid and avoid power outages." CAISO's warning of impending electricity shortages heralds another blackout-riddled summer at the same time California's electricity prices are skyrocketing. In 2020, California’s electricity prices jumped by 7.5%, making it the biggest price increase of any state in the country last year and nearly seven times the increase that was seen in the United States as a whole. According to data from the Energy Information Administration, the all-sector price of electricity in California last year jumped to 18.15 cents per kilowatt-hour, which means that Californians are now paying about 70% more for their electricity than the U.S. average all-sector rate of 10.66 cents per kWh. Even more worrisome: California’s electricity rates are expected to soar over the next decade. (More on that in a moment.) The surging cost of electricity will increase the energy burden being borne by low- and middle-income Californians. High energy costs have a particularly regressive effect in California, which has the highest poverty rate – and some of the highest electricity prices – in the country. In 2020, California’s all-sector electricity prices were the third-highest in the continental U.S., behind only Rhode Island (18.55 cents per kWh) and Connecticut (19.19 cents per kWh.) California policymakers are providing a case study in how not to manage an electric grid. Furthermore, that case study shows what could happen if policymakers at the state and federal levels decide to follow California’s radical decarbonization mandates, which include a requirement for 100% zero-carbon electricity by 2045 and an economy-wide goal of carbon neutrality by 2045.
TVA reports highest power demand in June since 2018 on Monday — Temperatures are rising across East Tennessee as summer starts, bringing weather that has already risen above 90 degrees Fahrenheit.The Tennessee Valley Authority said that as temperatures rise, so too does the demand for power across the region. People began turning on the air conditioning in their homes during the hot weather, leading to a peak power demand of 28,374 megawatts at 5 p.m. on Monday.Around that time, average temperatures were around 91 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the TVA. They said it was the highest June peak since 2018, and the eighth-highest June peak since 2012. They shared a post about the power demands on social media Tuesday, showing off people at work monitoring one of their nuclear plant's control rooms.
US Northeast heat wave pushing up demand, power, gas prices through midweek - The US Northeast has been hit by this year's second heat wave, with forecasts for increased power demand, and temperatures above 90 degrees Fahrenheit, while power and natural gas prices were above recent averages on June 28 in New England, New York and the PJM Interconnection. "A bulge northward in the jet stream pattern will allow for a dome of heat to build across the eastern US from the Appalachian Mountains east to the coast," Matt Benz, meteorologist with AccuWeather, said in a June 28 report. Temperatures are expected to climb five to 10 degrees above normal for the final days of June, according to AccuWeather. "We are expecting another round of high heat and humidity to impact most of the state and continue through the middle of the week," New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said in a June 27 statement. Heat indexes could reach up to 95 degrees F or more in some locations during the heatwave, with the highest heat index values occurring during the afternoon hours, the governor's office said. The New York Independent System Operator forecasts power demand to peak at 29,731 MW on June 29, with peak load averaging 22,640 MW over the past week, according to ISO data. Peak load in May averaged 17,284 MW compared to 16,216 MW in May 2020, a 6.6% increase. Regional spot power prices crept up throughout the day as temperatures increased, with ISO-New England real-time prices averaging above $300/MWh across the footprint as of late afternoon. Mass Hub day-ahead on-peak reached its highest level since a mid-February arctic freeze to trade around $81.25/MWh on the Intercontinental Exchange, up about $10 from its previous settlement.Real-time prices at NYISO Zone K long Island reached $150.96/MWh with real-time load at just above 29,000 MW. Zone G on-peak locational marginal prices rose about $8.25 to trade around $68.75/MWh, and Zone J New York City added about $8.75 to $71.50/MWh. Real-time prices at PJM's Dayton Zone reached $297.47/MWh by early afternoon, with a few other zones above $150/MWh.
America’s electric grid beset by aging equipment, congestion and failures of transparency - In the punishing heat wave that has struck the Pacific Northwest, about 17,000 electricity customers were without power in Washington state on Monday evening. Nearly 20,000 more were in blackouts in Idaho, Oregon, California and Nevada. Those aren’t devastating numbers, but they are a reminder that the electric grid in America is frayed and always operating close to the edge. The high temperatures come just four months after Texas power was poleaxed by the February freeze, and only two weeks after the Texas grid wobbled again in its own heat wave. A year ago, California experienced failures on a wide scale.A compromise reached in the Senate would pump billions of dollars into upgrading the nation’s electricity system, if it becomes law, but the need is immense. And at the same time the Biden administration is pushing for electric cars, trucks and buses, and a widespread conversion to electric heating, all while slashing the emissions of greenhouse gases. The nation’s already strained power grid is either at a turning point or poised to dash all those clean-power visions as it crumbles under the new stresses being placed on it. “The grid has never been as important as it is now, and in a year it will be more important,” said Dennis Kuhn, senior manager for integrated field construction design for Avangrid, which operates renewable generation plants in 22 states and utilities in New York and New England. Blackouts in Texas and California, with prices skittering dizzily up and down, are evidence that the system needs attention. On June 21, 100,000 customers in Michigan lost power after thunderstorms swept the state. And now the Northwest is trying to fend off the heat.The American grid features stressed and often barely adequate equipment on the local level, and a region-by-region governing structure that in pursuit of market savings has become so complex that it obscures the full picture. But perhaps the central issue is chronic congestion on the transmission lines that bring power from where it’s made to where it’s wanted.In the wake of February’s debacle in Texas, when a deep freeze knocked out power for days, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) signed reform legislation on June 8 and declared, “Everything that needed to be done was done to fix the power grid in Texas.”But in truth, no action by any government body could completely prepare the system anywhere in the country in time for this summer’s heat.
Power Grids Getting Fried by Heat in Preview of What’s to Come – The crushing heat smothering the U.S. Northwest is offering yet another stark reminder that the nation’s aging power grids weren’t built to withstand temperatures unleashed by global warming. Avista Corp. implemented rolling blackouts Monday for the first time after temperatures soared in Spokane, Washington, overheating its equipment as demand for electricity climbed.Heat waves like the one hitting Oregon and Washington used to be rare, but extreme weather -- from fires in California to droughts in the Midwest -- is becoming more frequent. That means utilities in the U.S. will need to invest about $500 billion to make their grids more resilient, according to ICF International Inc., a consulting firm. “All your expectations about the conditions you’re going to face need to be adjusted, because of climate change,” Mike Jacobs, senior energy analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists, said in an interview Tuesday. President Joe Biden said extreme heat in the Pacific Northwest shows the need for the country to build more resilient power grids, calling the record temperatures a consequence of global warming. . One common point of power grid failure are transformers, the barrel-shaped devices on utility poles that reduce voltage as electricity is transfered from distribution lines to homes. Transformers heat up as power moves through them, and radiators -- metal blocks with fins -- are used to dissipate that heat into the air. But when the external temperatures are too high, they can’t shed heat as effectively, and if the transformers get too hot they can catch on fire, Jacobs said. During a 10-day heatwave in California in 2006, the state’s utilities lost more than 1,500 transformers, with each knocking out service to one neighborhood in the process. “We saw our equipment get to its limits,” Heather Rosentrater, Avista’s senior vice president of energy delivery, said during a press conference Monday. “That caused the immediate need to take action or else it would have been damaged and caused much longer outages for customers.”
Grain Belt Express Moving Forward With Land Purchases --A project to generate electricity using wind turbines in Kansas and distribute the power in the Midwest and east coast is moving forward. Invenergy has purchased nearly half of the land it needs in northern Missouri for the construction project that will begin in earnest in 2023. All of those deals have been the product of voluntary negotiations with landowners willing to sell, according to the company, although Invenergy could have used eminent domain to acquire the land. Some members of the Missouri legislature wanted to revoke the eminent domain power during its regular session that ended in May. But the effort fell short, largely because opponents pointed to the company’s approval from the Missouri Public Service Commission and the likelihood that Invenergy would bring a court challenge if it was prohibited from using eminent domain. “Eminent domain would only be a last resort. We are continuing to pursue voluntary negotiations with landowners,” said Nicole Luckey, vice president of regulatory affairs for Invenergy.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: Texas needs more electricity now – OpEd - On the weekend of Feb. 13-14, a winter storm hit Texas with ice, snow and freezing temperatures seldom experienced in Texas. The storm stretched our power grid beyond its limits and generators failed to deliver the power needed. It was immediately clear the Public Utility Commission and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas were not prepared for this worst-case scenario. At a news conference the day before the storm, they assured the public they were prepared, but they obviously were not. After hearing post-storm testimony from the PUC and ERCOT leadership, I called for all members of both boards to resign and for an overhaul of both boards. Senate Bills 2 and 3 mandate that revamped structure, including requiring that board members live in Texas and not have conflicting fiduciary interests. Senate Bill 3 requires better public communication on outages as well as the mapping of our key power resources, so their power is not cut off during an emergency — the same protections we already have in place for hospitals, police and fire stations. Senate Bill 3 also requires enhanced winterization for both natural gas and electric generation facilities. The Legislature made good progress this session, but there is more important work to be done. We need to help consumers who suffered from overpricing during the storm. We must immediately address the need for more dispatchable power that we can turn on when we need it. That main source of that power is natural gas. While Texas is the fifth-largest generator of wind in the world, and also has a supply of solar, we have learned that renewables are not reliable in severe weather. We need renewables in the mix because they are clean and keep energy prices low, but at the height of the winter storm, the wind didn’t blow, and the sun wasn’t out. Wind is not reliable in the summer either. We must build more gas plants so that our dispatchable resources have the capacity to cover our electric needs now and going forward. One option is to incentivize investors to build more plants by leveling the playing field between renewables and dispatchable thermal energy. Renewables receive massive federal subsidies as well as some state incentives.Thermal plants are also required to replace any power they cannot generate on the spot market. Wind and solar are not. That partly explains why we have seen little investment in new thermal plants over the past decade. Senate Bill 3 included a provision for the PUC to put renewables and thermal energy on a level playing field, but stronger language was stripped from the bill before final passage that would have assured a level playing field. That language should be restored.
RENEWABLE ENERGY: Ohio governor weighs bill allowing local wind, solar bans -- Wednesday, June 30, 2021 -- The Ohio General Assembly late Monday passed a bill aimed at giving local counties and townships increased say over whether and where wind and solar projects are developed in their boundaries.
Bill creating new hurdles for wind and solar heads to governor - Ohio Capital Journal - State GOP lawmakers passed legislation around 1 a.m. Tuesday morning that bestows new powers unto county commissioners, allowing them kill wind and solar projects early in their development.The bill, which now goes to Gov. Mike DeWine for consideration, would also allow commissioners to block wind or solar development in all or part of an unincorporated area of the county.Citizens, however, can petition to place the restricted zone up for a public vote if petitioners amass a number of signatures equal to at least 8% of the total votes cast for governor in the county.The legislation passed the Ohio Senate early Tuesday on a 21-12 vote, with four Republicans joining Democrats in opposition. It passed the House 52-43, with eight Republicans joining Democrats.The proposal essentially creates a two-tiered system in which local officials wield powerful influence over potential renewable energy development but much less control over potential natural gas or oil development, which is overseen by the Ohio Power Siting Board.Lawmakers just last week sent to DeWine legislation that prohibits counties from restricting residents’ use of natural gas or propane.The lead sponsor on the wind and solar bill, Sen. Rob McColley, R-Napoleon, has said contrasting renewable energy policy and extractive energy policy is like comparing apples and oranges. House Speaker Bob Cupp, R-Lima, sidestepped a comparison renewables and natural gas development, calling the latter a “totally different issue.”Supporters of the legislation said local officials and residents need more say in the power siting process, which is handled at the state level and doesn’t adequately consider locals’ wishes. Rep. Bill Seitz, R-Green Twp., suggested residents of more affluent, urban counties would be up in arms about the prospect of hosting a wind or solar farm against their wishes.“They think it’s just fine to put these monstrosities all over rural Ohio, to ruin the landscape in rural Ohio, to create 600-foot-tall structures with moving parts where the blades break and the fires start and the birds and bats are shot to smithereens,” he said.“They think that’s just wonderful. Why? Because they’re not anywhere near it.”Rep. Craig Riedel, R-Defiance, said the legislation is aimed at a “quality of life” issue and giving localities a voice at the same level. After the Senate passed its version of the bill earlier this month, Senate President Matt Huffman, R-Lima, said renewable energy isn’t providing enough generation in Ohio to warrant the avoidance of a potentially lethal county commission vote, unlike coal or gas. Democrats voted against the legislation, with several drawing a line connecting the legislation to a coal and nuclear energy bailout from 2019 that’s now at the center ofwhat prosecutors describe as the largest public corruption scandal in state history. Alongside the bailouts, the legislation gutted Ohio’s renewable energy and energy efficiency standards for utilities.
What’s the Carbon Footprint of a Wind Turbine? – Yes. People have studied, in detail, the amount of carbon pollution emitted during the life of a wind turbine. In fact, this type of analysis constitutes an entire branch of research known as “life cycle assessment,” with its own handbooks, internationally agreed-upon standards, specialized software, and peer-reviewed journals. To conduct a life cycle assessment of a wind turbine, or any other product, researchers begin by diagramming each stage of its existence, from manufacturing through end-of-life disposal. Next, they inventory the energy and raw materials consumed at each stage, such as the steel, fiberglass, and plastic needed during a wind turbine’s manufacturing, the diesel burned by ships and trucks in transporting turbine parts from factory to construction site, and the energy used during construction, operation, maintenance, and eventual deconstruction and recycling or disposal.With this information in hand, researchers calculate the carbon pollution produced during a wind turbine’s life cycle — in other words, its carbon footprint.Search online for the keywords “life cycle assessment” and “wind turbine” and you’ll retrieve dozens of published papers on this topic. Here’s a non-comprehensive chart of such papers from the past five years:This chart shows how much carbon dioxide, per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated, can be attributed to a wind turbine during its life from cradle to grave. If you’re wondering about those awkward-sounding “grams of carbon dioxide-equivalent,” or “CO2-eq,” that’s simply a unit that includes both carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases, such as methane.You can see that the results vary by country, size of turbine, and onshore versus offshore configuration, but all fall within a range of about five to 26 grams of CO2-equivalent per kilowatt-hour.To put those numbers in context, consider the two major fossil-fuel sources of electricity in the United States: natural gas and coal. Power plants that burn natural gas are responsible for 437 to 758 grams of CO2-equivalent per kilowatt-hour — far more than even the most carbon-intensive wind turbine listed above. Coal-fired power plants fare even more poorly in comparison to wind, with estimates ranging from 675 to 1,689 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour, depending on the exact technology in question.
‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Is the Future – WSJ - Remember the cringeworthy “Drill, baby, drill” slogan from the 2008 Republican Convention? Maybe they were on to something, but not what you think. We’re bombarded daily with calls for sustainable, renewable and carbon chewable technologies to meet our energy needs. But the solution may be just underfoot. Dig deep enough and, no surprise, it’s hotter than hell down there. Isotope reactions in the mantle under the Earth’s crust generate 20 terawatts of constant heat flow. Typically, the temperature rises about 25 degrees Celsius for every kilometer, or 75 degrees Fahrenheit for each mile, and more the deeper you go. The steam wafting out of hot springs in Yellowstone National Park or Iceland, places where the Earth’s crust is thin, shows how much heat the mantle gives off. We already have a good-sized surface geothermal industry in the U.S. For $15,000 to $30,000, you can hire someone to dig a few hundred feet and install a heat pump that circulates heated water to keep your house cozy. But that’s just scratching the surface. There is huge upside to digging down miles and injecting water into underground reservoirs—think radiators—and then the heated water is pushed back out to generate steam and electricity. It’s carbon-free—clean, green and mostly unseen. The trick is to get a large enough surface area to do the heat exchange. A typical vertical oil well might have 1,000 to 10,000 square feet of surface area. But it turns out that the same thing that’s been perfected over the past 30 years to make America energy independent can also increase that surface area—horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. I called one of the industry pioneers, University of Texas engineer Mukul Sharma, who is sometimes called the Frack King (get it?) and has a startup named Geothermix that develops enhanced geothermal systems. Mr. Sharma walked me through the process. Millions of oil and gas wells have been drilled in the U.S. over the past century. Maps exist that show the thermal conductivity of underlying rock by region—suggesting how deep you’d have to drill to get a temperature hot enough to generate cost-effective electricity, typically 0.5 to 4 miles down. After drilling down you can then drill horizontally and hydraulically fracture the rock to create an underground reservoir. With this technique you could get 10 million to 20 million square feet of surface area for the heat exchanger, thousands of times more than a standard well. Mr. Sharma thinks we’ll have several commercially viable deep geothermal systems operating in the next five years, maybe costing $10 million to $15 million each, from his company and others like Sage Geosystems and Fervo Energy. He thinks by 2030 we’ll have second- and third-generation systems operating much more efficiently, just as fracking constantly gained in output as technology improved.
Hazy view in Big Bend? Texas officials don't want any new rules to fix it. - State environmental regulators are proposing to do nothing new to meet federal rules that require them to manage how hazy it is at certain national parks and wilderness areas, arguing that they’re already on track to meet visibility goals.But advocates and researchers criticized how the state reached that conclusion and argue regulators are missing a critical chance to reduce pollution that not only contributes to hazy skies but also can be harmful to human health.Texas Commission on Environmental Quality commissioners are expected to vote Wednesday morning on the plan, which puts in place no new emissions controls. Staffers say that reducing pollution at sites they believe may contribute to haze — such as coal-fired power plants — is unreasonably expensive, ineffective and unnecessary. The federal regional haze rules are meant to restore “natural visibility” at specified areas by 2064. But TCEQ staff note that other policies already regulate pollution, and that human-generated haze in all but one of the nearby federally protected places is improving.“We think that this plan will continue to show improvement at those [protected] areas within Texas and then those areas outside of Texas that are impacted,” said Walker Williamson, senior project manager for the agency’s air quality division.Not everyone agrees with their analysis. To figure out if more should be done, TCEQ staff studied the effects of human-caused pollution on the places they believe Texas facilities could be affecting, including Big Bend and Guadalupe Mountains national parks, plus areas in New Mexico, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
As the US Pursues Clean Energy and the Climate Goals of the Paris Agreement, Communities Dependent on the Fossil Fuel Economy Look for a Just Transition - New research from Resources for the Future points out that hundreds of areas like central Utah are facing painful hardships because of the clean-energy transformation that will be necessary if the United States hopes to reach the Paris agreement’s goals to slow climate change. Lost jobs and wages, a shrinking population and an erosion of the tax base that supports roads, schools and community services—they’re all costs of the economic shift that will be paid by those whose hard work fueled American prosperity for so long. “If we can address those challenges by helping communities diversify, helping people find new economic growth drivers and new economic opportunities, that might lessen some of the opposition to moving forward with the ambitious climate policy that we need,” said the report’s author, Daniel Raimi, who is also a lecturer at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan.Meeting the Paris agreement’s target of keeping global temperature rise “well below 2 degrees C” by the end of the century means Americans must burn 90 percent less coal over the next two decades and half as much oil and natural gas, Raimi said.And less fossil fuel use will also affect employment, public finances and economic development region-by-region, according to Raimi. In 50 of the nation’s 3,006 counties, 25 percent or more of all wages are tied to fossil fuel energy, he notes. In 16 counties, 25 percent or more of their total jobs are related to fossil energy. The focus on what’s often called a “just transition” is increasingly part of the climate action agenda for advocates and government. The Natural Resources Defense Council, the Sierra Club and the World Resources Institute are among the environmental advocacy organizations that are promoting the idea. Eighty coal-state groups have been pushing for help with the transition since before President Joe Biden took office. In January, some of them stepped up their pressure, when 13 organizations from West Virginia to the Navajo Nation in Arizona, as well as their national partners, pressed for the White House to help rebuild coal community economies.
Coal-fired plant carbon capture projects face headwinds | S&P Global Market Intelligence - Carbon capture at aging U.S. coal plants has always been a long shot financially, and the outlook for such projects appears to be dimming as private investors look elsewhere and federal support for the technology wanes under the Biden administration. None of the five proposals to retrofit coal plants with carbon capture technology in the U.S. has secured funding to construct the scrubbers, carbon absorbers and geologic storage sites needed to begin operating. Some analysts also warn that costs could escalate, ultimately leaving ratepayers and taxpayers responsible for runaway expenses should projects be abandoned. The $1.4 billion carbon sequestration and storage facility planned for the 847-MW San Juan Generating Station in New Mexico, for example, is nearly two years behind schedule. Enchant Energy, the company championing the project, now says it will need a $906 million loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy and another $90 million in debt financing from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Rural Utilities Services program to continue development. Whether such public financing will materialize is uncertain. The DOE under President Biden is shifting carbon capture research and development spending away from coal plants and toward relatively new natural gas-fired power plants and hard-to-abate industry sectors such as cement manufacturing. "As you know, this office has invested a great deal of time and resources in cleaner coal," Jennifer Wilcox, the DOE's principal deputy assistant secretary for fossil energy, said April 30 during an event hosted by the Carbon Utilization Research Council. "But it’s fairly clear that carbon capture may not make economic sense on the remaining existing fleet of coal-fired power plants in the U.S. — plants that are mostly based off of subcritical efficiency boilers and nearing retirement over the next decade." Meanwhile, private funding for costly carbon capture projects is drying up as banks and equity firms adopt policies discouraging coal investments.
Equipment damaged at Alabama coal mine where workers are striking, $10,000 reward offered - Warrior Met Coal is offering a cash reward of up to $10,000 for information on damage to electrical transmission and distribution equipment on the company’s property on three occasions within the last two months. The Alabama Mining Association announced the reward today, saying that the damage “impacted public utility service and can seriously endanger the health and safety of the company’s workers.” According to a news release, the damage happened on Warrior’s property on the evenings of May 15, June 1 and June 12. Deputy Jessica McDaniel with the Tuscaloosa County Sheriff’s Office confirmed that several investigations are ongoing into property crimes at multiple locations. About 1,100 workers at Warrior Met Coal have been engaged in a strike against the company since April 1. The United Mine Workers of America rejected a proposed contract in April, saying that the union had already made significant concessions during its previous contract in pay, benefits, holidays and overtime to keep the company going. Warrior Met emerged from the bankruptcy proceedings of the former Walter Energy, which declared bankruptcy in 2016. Phil Smith, director of communications and governmental affairs for the United Mine Workers of America, said the union “does not condone or believe in destruction of property in any form, or violence of any kind.” Patrick Cagle, president of the Alabama Mining Association, said he did not believe “any responsible member of the mining community would do something like that.”
Panel to take on Puerto Rico coal ash, military legacy -- Monday, June 28, 2021 -The House Natural Resources Committee on Wednesday will scrutinize a power plant in Puerto Rico whose struggles with coal ash disposal have led to public health concerns and a major spill this year.
Power Past Coal Coalition celebrate Supreme Court's dismissal of Wyoming, Montana case against Washington - — On Monday, the “Power Past Coal Coalition” sent out a press release in celebration of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision not to hear a challenge from Wyoming and Montana against a Washington state decision to deny a permit for a proposed coal export terminal.“Today, the United States Supreme Court officially dismissed the coal industry’s last remaining legal appeal of Washington State’s 2017 decision to deny water quality permits for the proposed Millennium Bulk Terminals coal export terminal, signaling the official end of the project,” the press release said.The Power Past Coal Coalition noted that courts at multiple levels have upheld Washington’s decision in the matter. The release says that the proposed Millennium Bulk coal export terminal would have been developed by Lighthouse Resources, but that this company declared bankruptcy in December 2020.Power Past Coal said that bankruptcy came “amid continued decline in demand for thermal coal and increased competition from clean energy like wind and solar.”The coalition said that the Millenium coal export terminal was the last of seven proposed export facilities “opposed by an unprecedented coalition of tribal nations, health, environmental, faith and community groups from across the Pacific Northwest and High Plains.”The coal exports terminal could have sent up to 44 million metric tons of coal per year to Asian markers, according to Power Past Coal. Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon on Monday expressed frustration that the Supreme Court had dismissed the case.“This case was never about a single permit or product,” Gordon said in a press release. “It was about the ability of one state to engage in lawful interstate commerce without the interference of another state.”“Today it is coal, tomorrow it could be agricultural products or any of our state’s abundant natural resources. At some point the Supreme Court is going to need to take on this matter.”Power Past Coal members, on the other hand, celebrated the decision as a win against negative effects caused by the use of coal.
Radioactive hybrid terror pigs have made themselves a home in Fukushima's exclusion zone. -- Scientists have uncovered a new threat to humanity emerging in the area surrounding the former Fukushima nuclear power plant: indestructible radioactive hybrid terror pigs.The details emerged from studies of how radiation from the partial nuclear meltdown at the plant in 2011 had affected local wildlife, which has in many cases "rewilded" urban areas vacated years ago by populations forced to move out by the threat of radiation following the disaster.This is a familiar process following large-scale human evacuations and similar rewilding situations occurred in the area surrounding the site of the Chernobyl incident in 1986, despite the efforts of the Soviet authorities to control the animal population.The NBC-suited boffins working on the project were expecting to find wild boar in the affected zone since they have been reported in former urban areas for some years, having come down from the surrounding mountains to reclaim the towns and cities of the area as their own realm almost as soon as the humans vacated them.However, the scientists were not prepared for the true prospect that awaited them, as related in a report in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B journal.The local wild boar – a subspecies endemic to the region known as the Japanese Boar (aka Sus scrofa leucomystax or the White-Moustached Pig) – having created a fiefdom covering all of the locale vacated by over 160,000 displaced humans, became cocky and aggressive, and also lost their natural wariness.The marauding boar also began interbreeding with escaped domestic pigs that had made good with their trotters from local farms after their human keepers had been forced to flee. The pigs, for their part, were ill-suited to life in the wild in a radioactive, post-apocalyptic hellscape and presumably threw in their lot with the tough, wily boar as their best chance of survival. The result was a new kind of boar-pig hybrid that originated in the initial exclusion zone within 20km of the site of the nuclear plant, where radiation levels were presumably highest. The study found that the hybrids did not display any signs of mutation, despite the doses of radiation they were subjected to. Indeed, surveys of the local boar population found they are contaminated by up to 300 times the safe human dosage of the lethal isotope caesium-137 [PDF]. In other words, they are highly radioactive and seemingly virtually indestructible.
Oil and gas industry in eastern Ohio weathers pandemic– On a recent Saturday in this small Harrison County community, a steady stream of big rigs passed through Deersville's main street, headed to a well site owned by Encino Energy on the east edge of town. The site, known as the Deersville HN FRA Unit, will consist of four horizontal wells, which will be extracting oil and natural gas from 95 separate tracts of land in Franklin, Stock and Nottingham townships, according to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. The drilling in the Deersville area is a sign that the oil and natural gas industry — which has been quiet in eastern Ohio for the past couple of years — hasn't gone anywhere. "I think the future of the industry in Ohio is bright," said George Brown, executive director of the Ohio Oil and Gas Energy Education Program, a non-profit statewide education and public outreach program. "I think what we're seeing now, coming through the pandemic, is a stabilization of the market of the industry in the state. The point I really try to make with folks is that the industry is still here. Oil and natural gas is still an important player in Ohio's economy. "I understand it may have been a little quiet, and that's not necessarily a bad thing because producers have still been doing what they do every single day, and that is making the essential energy that helps us lead our everyday lives in Ohio." According to JobsOhio, the state's economic development agency, about 200,000 Ohioans are employed by the oil and gas industry, more than in the US as a whole. "Direct employment is still very strong in Ohio," Brown said. The industry continues to be centered in Harrison, Belmont, Jefferson and Carroll counties and surrounding areas. From 2011 to the second quarter of 2020, oil and natural gas companies have invested an estimated $90.6 billion in Ohio and have paid out more than $7.2 billion in royalties to Ohio landowners. The COVID-19 pandemic, which drove down consumer demand for oil and resulted in a slump in commodity prices, proved to be a trying time for the industry. But it didn't cause a lull for Encino Energy operations in eastern Ohio. "The global pandemic had an impact on the oil and gas industry, but our approach was a steady hand with steadfast development," said Jackie Stewart, director of external affairs for the company. In October 2018, Encino closed a $2 billion deal to buy Chesapeake Energy’s Utica Shale play assets in Ohio, acquiring about 900 operating and non-operating wells with about 900,000 acres of oil and gas leases. Encino is the second-largest producer of natural gas and oil in Ohio. Since that time, the company has had two rigs running in this part of the state, Stewart said. "The pandemic had an impact on everyone," she said. "We knew that we had to do it better and be more efficient to be competitive." She credited Encino's success to a seasoned, experienced management team and the company's core values and culture. "What you're seeing is the result – a sustainable, long-term approach to development of the Utica Shale play," Stewart said.
OH Legislature Passes Ban on NatGas Bans, Gov. Expected to Sign --The states that produce Marcellus and Utica Shale are ensuring no rogue local municipalities will get it into their heads to ban the use of natural gas like some municipalities in left-leaning states including California and New York. Both Pennsylvania and Ohio have bills that would “ban bans” of natural gas (see OH, PA Bills Prevent Natural Gas Bans by Local Municipalities). While PA’s bill is still making progress, the Ohio legislature has jumped ahead and just passed House Bill (HB) 201 to ban bans. The bill now goes to Gov. Mike DeWine who is sure to sign it into law. Local governments in Ohio would no longer be allowed to ban residents’ use of natural gas, under legislation approved Thursday by the state legislature. House Bill 201, which passed a final Senate vote 24-7, now heads to Gov. Mike DeWine. Proponents of the Republican-sponsored bill say prohibiting local natural gas bans will ensure residents have access to a reliable source of heat in the winter. While no Ohio cities have so far restricted natural gas use, dozens of cities on the East and West Coasts have voted to ban natural-gas hookups for new buildings to reduce emissions that cause global warming. “This would be an incredible problem for people across the Buckeye State if we don’t get out in front of this,” said state Sen. Rob McColley, a Northwest Ohio Republican, during a floor debate Thursday. Such bans, he said, would particularly hurt lower-income Ohioans who would pay more for electric heating. Opponents of HB201, including environmental and local-government groups, say the measure would violate “home-rule” authority granted to local governments by the Ohio Constitution. Similar bills prohibiting such bans have already been passed in Arizona, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Louisiana. Separate GOP-sponsored legislation, House Bill 192, would prohibit local bans on fossil fuels for power generation. However, that bill so far hasn’t advanced in the Ohio House.* *Cleveland (OH) The Plain Dealer (Jun 24, 2021) – Bill prohibiting local bans on natural gas use clears Ohio legislature
Resident shares oil and gas concerns — A local resident brought several concerns about oil and gas activity around Belmont County to the commissioners Wednesday. Jill Hunkler of the Barnesville area, a member of the activist group Concerned Ohio River Residents, has long voiced opposition to the industry and the practice of fracking. Among the issues she brought up Wednesday were concerns about the Austin Masters waste management facility in Martins Ferry. “We’ve been working with a coalition of local, state and national environmental groups to bring attention to this dangerous facility,” Hunkler said. “They are processing fracking waste.”Hunkler said there have been issues since 2017, saying there have been violations, issues related to worker safety, and concerns about its close proximity to a sports field nearby. She also said the Ohio Department of Natural Resources has not written sufficient regulations for such facilities.She asked the commissioners to speak to a fire chief from outside the area who has taken issue with these operations.Stephanie O’Grady, spokeswoman for the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, said via email that all oil and gas waste facilities must conform with the law and the Ohio Revised Code.“The Division has enforced violations of Chief’s Orders and/or violations of laws or statutes on several waste facilities that have included actions consisting of notice of violations, compliance agreements, and Chief’s Orders to suspend operations,” she said in an email. She also mentioned objections to the New Jersey-based Omni Energy Group’s planned saltwater injection well site at the intersection of U.S. 40 and Ohio 331. Since the drilling permit was issued at the end of 2020, work on the facilities have been ongoing despite local objections that the area is highly traveled and numerous government sites, residences and education centers are nearby.Hunkler mentioned an accidental fluid release at the site earlier this month and said the construction has inconvenienced and potentially endangered nearby residents.
DTE Energy Spinning Off Pipeline Business into New Company --Last October MDN told you that DTE Energy, a long-time pipeline builder and operator in the Marcellus/Utica region, was considering either selling or spinning off its pipeline business (see DTE Energy Explores Sale or Spin-Off of Pipeline Business). DTE, based in Detroit, is both a utility company and a midstream/pipeline company. The company’s season of pondering is over and the decision has been made. DTE will spin out the pipeline business into a new/separate company.In 2016, DTE purchased 100% of the Appalachia Gathering System (AGS) located in Pennsylvania and 55% of the Stonewall Gas Gathering (SGG) located in West Virginia (see DTE Energy Buys Marcellus/Utica Pipelines for $1.3B). In 2019 DTE bought another 30% stake in SGG (see DTE Midstream Buys Another 30% of WV Gathering System). The mighty NEXUS natural gas pipeline from Ohio into Michigan is a 50/50 joint venture between DTE and Enbridge. DTE also owns a minority stake in the Millennium Pipeline that runs from Corning, NY to the NYC area. (A section of the Millennium runs within a few miles of MDN HQ–we drive over it multiple times per week.)A map of DTE’s pipeline assets: All of those assets will become DT Midstream. David Slater, chief operating officer of DTE’s midstream business since 2014, will become CEO of the new company. The move to create DT Midstream is focused on creating shareholder value. It’s part of a wider trend in the industry of utilities becoming “pure-play” and, in this case, focused on the 2.2 million electricity customers in southeast Michigan and 1.3 million natural gas customers throughout the state. “For Michigan consumers, there will be no impact,” The spinoff will own 900 miles of interstate pipelines regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that connect to multiple pipelines and local distribution companies. It also has 290 miles of pipelines that connect to mainlines, 94 billion cubic feet of gas storage and more than 1,000 miles of gathering pipeline. Most of the pipelines are not in Michigan, but in Louisiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other states.The Nexus Gas Transmission and Vector Pipeline L.P. lines do supply some of the natural gas for DTE customers’ heating and electricity.“Every interaction has to be kept at an arms-length,” said David Meador, DTE’s vice chairman and chief administrative officer. “There can’t be any benefit to one business or to the other. There’s very little financial interaction between the midstream side and utility.” DTE faced a slight delay in obtaining regulatory approval for the Nexus pipeline it owns with Enbridge Inc. The pipeline from eastern Ohio to southeast Michigan was supposed to open before the end of 2017, but began operation in 2018. DTE also has made several acquisitions of natural gas gathering systems and pipelines in Louisiana, northeast Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. It may also be beneficial for a utility to cut a tie-up with a natural gas transporter from an environmental and regulatory perspective, Karp said.– DTE spinning off DT Midstream natural gas pipeline business
Barges put health at risk - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - Although our rivers are far from pristine, we have come a long way from the days when industrial pollution made these rivers unable to sustain aquatic life. We have the Clean Water Act to thank for that.Now, though, our rivers face a new threat: the barging of toxic wastewater from seven proposed terminals on all three rivers (“Network of companies looking to move fracking wastewater in barges up and down Pittsburgh’s rivers,” May 31).With terminals spanning Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, the barging of this waste, originating from the shale gas industry, puts at risk our drinking water, recreational opportunities and health.The shale gas industry produces a tremendous amount of toxic waste in liquid, sludge and solid forms. This waste is a public health concern because of its toxicity, radioactivity and lack of government oversight in its handling. Oil and gas waste is not classified or treated as toxic due to exemptions in federal legislation.Barges, although efficient modes of transportation, are not accident-proof. They may leak, spill, sometimes break loose, crash and even sink. Putting barges full of toxic waste into our rivers, which remember is a major source of drinking water for the region, is a surefire recipe for a public health disaster. Putting the health and well-being of our families at risk, just for the expediency of industry, is a practice we can and should avoid.
Pa. lawmakers want stricter regulations on fracking - WKBN.com - Democratic lawmakers introduced a slew of bills meant to tighten up regulations on Pennsylvania’s shale gas industry. The package of legislation came as a response to last summer’s grand jury report on the unconventional oil and gas industry. The report found the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection failed to protect residents from the health impacts of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro said, during a May 25 press conference announcing the bills, that the grand jury report found a gap between the public’s constitutional rights to clean air and water and the reality of the law. The legislation addresses the eight recommendations made by the grand jury, including expanding setbacks from 500 to 2,500 feet, requiring fracking companies to publicly disclose all chemicals used in drilling before they’re used and require safer transport of the fracking wasteIt would give the Pennsylvania Office of Attorney General criminal jurisdiction over environmental crimes. Current the attorney general’s office can only intervene after getting a referral from a local district attorney, the DEP or another agency with jurisdiction.The legislation would also limit the ability of Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection employees to work in the oil and gas industry immediately after leaving the department and regulate natural gas gathering lines, which are currently only regulated at the federal level.The grand jury report was released last June with a splashy press conference where Shapiro held up a jar of cloudy brown water. It was well water from a resident who said their water had been contaminated by fracking, he said. Shapiro recounted how residents told the grand jury about the various health issues they they suffered from living near unconventional drilling sites, including sores, ulcers, rashes, breathing issues and stomach ailments. Pets and livestock became ill and some died, he said.“The grand jurors heard repeated testimony of small children waking up with severe nosebleeds. One parent testified that her 4-year-old daughter was waking up crying with blood pouring out of her nose,” Shapiro said, during the press conference.The report was the result of a two-year investigation that included testimony from 70 households. Current and former state employees also testified. The DEP responded to the report, saying it presented an “inaccurate and incomplete picture of Pennsylvania’s regulatory program.” The department defended itself in a 49-page response.
Commonwealth Court judge recuses himself from Murrysville fracking appeal case -A Commonwealth Court of Pennsylvania judge whose previous career included helping craft state fracking legislation has recused himself from a case involving local fracking laws. Judge J. Andrew Crompton issued an order Monday granting the Murrysville Watch Committee’s request that he recuse himself from the panel adjudicating its appeal. The committee is appealing a lower court ruling denying its challenge to the validity of Murrysville’s existing unconventional gas drilling ordinance. During his time as chief of staff for state Sen. Joe Scarnati and as a staff attorney for the General Assembly, Crompton helped craft the 2012 legislation known as Act 13, which addressed oil and gas operations statewide. In 2016, the state’s Supreme Court struck down a number of provisions in Act 13 as unconstitutional. Crompton was also involved in the Act 13 appeals process. “We pointed out that there were two other occasions where the court alerted us that they were recusing themselves,” said John Smith, a Pittsburgh attorney representing the Murrysville Watch Committee. “This is the first time I’ve had to ask a court officer to recuse him- or herself. And we were appreciative that he took our application seriously and made the decision he did.”
New Build/Expansions Coming This Yr & Next for 3 MU NGL Pipelines - The Liquids Pipeline Projects Database complements our natural gas pipeline projects table. We update our Liquids Pipeline Projects Database based on the best available information from pipeline company websites, trade press reports, and government documents, such as U.S. Department of State permits for border crossings. We release updates to the database twice each year: in the late spring and the fall. The data reflect reported plans. We clicked to view the “database” (actually a spreadsheet) maintained by EIA for liquids pipeline projects. We converted the EIA Microsoft Excel file into an online Google Sheets file, which you can view for yourself here.We re-sorted the sheet by year and discovered three projects (two in 2021, one in 2022) that will materially affect sales of M-U NGLs. All three project names are familiar to us and to anyone reading MDN for any length of time. However, we knew nothing of one of the three projects until today, and we had long forgotten about another.First up on the list is one of the projects completely new to us, or rather this aspect of an existing project is completely new. We’ve been telling you for the past two-and-a-half years about Energy Transfer’s Revolution Pipeline, a 24-inch natural gas gathering pipeline that runs through Bulter, Beaver, Allegheny, and Washington counties. It exploded in September 2018 just as it went into service. Although it finally went back into service in March of this year, ET is still trying to finish up final work on the fixed pipeline (seeNeverending Story: More Work to be Done on Revolution Pipe in SWPA). Tucked into EIA’s liquids pipeline spreadsheet is an entry for the Revolution System (i.e. Revolution Pipeline) stating that in Q1 of this year Revolution would build a 12-inch, 15-mile y-grade NGL pipeline from the Revolution Cryogenic plant south to a storage and an injection site–all located within Washington County, PA. The entry says the project is already completed! How did this not generate all sorts of pushback by the radicals on the left? Mariner East 2 Pipeline (Bypass) has one final bit of work to do on the ME2X pipeline before all three ME2 pipelines are fully complete and up and running at full capacity. The final bit is a short bypass around Marsh Creek State Park (see PA Labor/Biz Groups Turn Out to Support ME2 Marsh Creek Plan). According to the EIA spreadsheet, the ME2 Bypass project needs final permits (from the PA Dept. of Environmental Protection) before it can finish work. Tentatively the work should be done in Q3 of this year. This was the one project we were fully aware of.Looking at 2022, we noticed a project that we had forgotten about–an expansion of ATEX to the Gulf Coast. In October 2019, Enterprise Products Partners, the builder and operator of the ATEX ethane pipeline, committed to expanding the capacity along the pipeline (see Enterprise Decides to Expand ATEX Ethane Pipeline to Gulf Coast).ATEX was completed and began to flow 125,000 barrels per day of Marcellus/Utica ethane to the Gulf Coast in 2013. The pipeline starts in Washington County, PA, runs through West Virginia, and then all the way across Ohio. Some 261 miles of new pipeline was laid through Ohio, all the way to Seymour, Indiana where it connects to an existing Enterprise pipeline that runs to the Gulf Coast where the ethane gets used in cracker plants. The entire length of what is now called the ATEX is 1,192 miles long.
The Importance of Pennsylvania's Natural Gas -- Thanks to fracking in the Marcellus shale, Pennsylvania has led a U.S. natural gas revolution since 2007. The state’s production has exploded almost 40-fold, to over 7,300 billion cubic feet, or 20% of the national total. Pennsylvania now ranks second only to Texas on this measure and yields more gas than any other country, except Russia and Iran. The rise of shale has been critical because natural gas is easily America’s main source of electricity, at 40% of all generation. The International Energy Agency credits the use of cleaner gas – and its displacement of much higher-emission coal – for America’s achievement in cutting CO2 emissions the most “in the history of energy.” Experts at Wood Mackenzie and elsewhere conclude that gas demand will remain resilient, even in a policy environment that seeks to keep the human-induced rise in global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius or less. Pennsylvania’s shale production has helped families economically and given businesses a competitive advantage. With Pittsburgh long eager to replace its fleeing steel industry, Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald, a Democrat and strong Joe Biden supporter, says that “fracking really saved us.” The University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy reports on the economic benefits from shale development: it has led to a decline in the state’s gas and electricity prices of 40% and 80%, respectively, over the first decade alone, saving families thousands of dollars a year. Jobs, government revenues, and royalties for landowners are among the many benefits of shale development. Current numbers tell the story: compared to over $10.00 per MMBtu in Asia, gas prices at Marcellus’s Dominion hub in mid-June were below $2.10. Such affordable energy explains why civil rights leaders like Revs. Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton support natural gas. And there is much more to look forward to. The Marcellus is the largest producing field in the world, appraised at hundreds of trillions of cubic feet of supply. Ongoing coal retirements and the closing of Three Mile Island nuclear plant should extend gas’s current 50–55% share of Pennsylvania’s power generation. Data from the Department of Energy indicate that this shift from coal to gas has cut the state’s CO2 emission rate for electricity a staggering 75%, to 720 pounds per megawatt hour. Not particularly sunny or windy, Pennsylvania currently has 23,200 megawatts (MW) of gas capacity versus just 1,500 MW for wind and 90 MW for solar. And with the state’s paltry 30 MW of battery-storage capacity, it’s clear that gas will remain essential to compensate for the inherent intermittency of renewables and ensure grid reliability. Indeed, it’s telling that the most green-leaning states, such as California, New York, and Massachusetts, are all gas-dominant.
The fracking boom is over. Where did all the jobs go? - MIT Technology Review - Shale gas and oil extraction, also known as fracking, is often credited by conservatives with creating hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of US manufacturing jobs. As the “Saudi Arabia of natural gas,” Pennsylvania has been the poster child for the fracking industry. But far fewer jobs were created there and in neighboring states like Ohio than boosters claim, and many have since vanished. Take Williamsport, Pennsylvania. A faded former lumber town between the Susquehanna River and the Appalachian foothills, Williamsport’s population has declined by more than one-third in the past 60 years. Its poverty rate is twice the state’s average, and it now has high rates of drug abuse and violent crime. During the 2016 US presidential primary election, Republican hopeful Ted Cruz made a campaign stop in Billtown, as locals affectionately call it. At the time, the area was quickly becoming a hub of shale gas extraction. After many local landowners leased their mineral estates to petroleum companies, drilling rigs cropped up outside of town. Caravans of water and sand trucks plied the back roads. Oil giant Halliburton opened a massive facility that employed 600 people. And the welding and metalwork company NuWeld—the site of Cruz’s rally—expanded from 60 to 290 workers.“Pennsylvania is an energy state,” Cruz told the crowd. He saw NuWeld as a herald of the “millions of millions of new high-paying jobs” that fracking could bring. But less than two weeks after his visit, the company abruptly shuttered (it has since reopened at a much smaller scale).NuWeld was hardly the only area business affected by an industry-wide “slowdown,” as shale boosters delicately called it. Dan Klingerman, who built Williamsport’s Marcellus Energy Park, insisted to me at the time that the industry wasn’t in retreat, yet he quietly closed his oilfield trucking company. Hotels hastily built for itinerant workers sat half vacant. Halliburton’s local facility whittled its workforce down to about 40. By 2019, it was apparent that “slowdown” was a euphemism for bust. There were only 19 drilling rigs in the entire state by January of that year, down from 114 in the same month of 2012. That’s fewer rigs than Pennsylvania had before the fracking boom began.What happened? As a Bloomberg report put it, “The numbers never added up.” Fracking has always been expensive; extraordinarily generous fossil-fuel subsidies helped hide the true cost. With new wells facing average production declines of 60% in the first year, petroleum companies had to frantically drill more of them. The entire model was premised on high oil and gas prices. But nationwide, the glut of gas (and, to a lesser extent, oil) precipitated by the fracking boom depressed prices to their lowest levels since the 1990s. The result? Frackers pumped the brakes. A wave of consolidations and bankruptcies swept across the sector. The stock prices of premier energy firms like Chesapeake Energy Corporation crashed (it declared bankruptcy in 2020). Some, like Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, liquidated their shale gas holdings. Chevron announced in December 2019 that it would write down up to $11 billion in shale gas assets.The oil and gas industry shed more than 100,000 jobs last year, and areport by Deloitte warned that about 70% of the jobs lost in 2020 may not come back this year—or ever. As of April, the mining sector had the highest rate of unemployment in the country, at 15%. The petroleum industry has also taken a major reputational hit for its role in warming the planet while peddling climate-change denialism. Methane emissions associated with fracking are so pervasive that many scientists now think substituting natural gas for coal won’t reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Shareholders are revolting; wealth managers are divesting.
US Steel, Equinor team up to examine Appalachia's potential for hydrogen - Norwegian oil and gas producer Equinor ASA is teaming up with manufacturer U.S. Steel Corp. to explore converting Appalachia's natural gas to cleaner "blue hydrogen," the firms said June 29. Blue hydrogen uses steam methane reforming to make hydrogen and uses carbon capture and storage, or CCS, technologies to store the waste carbon, usually underground. Natural gas is typically the feedstock for steam methane reforming. Combined, Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and eastern Ohio produce more natural gas than Texas. Another source of local demand would be welcomed by Appalachia's producers. When pipelines out of the region fill up, Appalachia's shale gas producers often end up selling gas into the glutted local market at a large discount to national prices. Equinor and U.S. Steel said the non-exclusive memorandum of understanding would open the door to studying the potential for producing and selling blue hydrogen in the region, as well as to combining their lobbying efforts with policy makers. Theoretically, just as natural gas replaced coal for many steelmaking processes, hydrogen could replace gas, reducing potent methane and carbon dioxide emissions. "A hydrogen and CO2 hub in the Appalachian Basin, utilizing the region's natural gas resources while capturing and safely storing the emissions, would be an important tool to meet the future energy demands of domestic industry within the U.S. ambition to achieve net-zero by 2050," Equinor's U.S. country manager, Chris Golden, said in a statement. The key to net-zero emissions globally is not to eliminate carbon-intensive industry sectors but instead, make them less intensive, protecting jobs and infrastructure," Equinor's executive vice president for exploration and production international, Al Cook, told an audience June 28 at the Washington, D.C.-based Atlantic Council. "We're leading a project called Zero Carbon Humber, which at the moment is the world's largest blue hydrogen project, and that's looking at decarbonizing an industrial cluster, the U.K.'s largest industrial cluster in northeast England," Cook said. "For all that renewable energy can bring forward green jobs, it's vitally important that we also protect jobs that have been created around steel, around cement, around heavy industry. And we protect that by decarbonizing those industries, rather than eliminate them."
U.S. natgas companies put hydrogen to the test (Reuters) - At least two dozen U.S. energy firms, including Dominion Energy Inc and Sempra Energy, have started producing hydrogen or testing its viability in natural gas pipes to take advantage of existing infrastructure as the world prioritizes lower-carbon fuels. Nations worldwide are trying to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, but that will rely heavily on technology - like hydrogen - that is in developmental stages. Utilities have a potential advantage if they find that clean-burning hydrogen can be successfully transported in existing gas pipes and power plants. But governments need legislation and regulation to encourage energy companies to spend billions in order to reduce production costs for green hydrogen, analysts said, before it can displace fossil fuels. Almost all of the world's hydrogen production is currently through fossil fuels, and large utilities are currently mostly testing blends of natural gas and hydrogen in their pipelines. The companies experimenting with hydrogen are in early stages. Canada's Enbridge Inc is blending up to 2% hydrogen into its natural gas distribution systems in Ontario, and just received approval to blend hydrogen in Quebec. “We are looking to understand the potential either with the existing system or, as we're continuing to modernize the gas pipeline system, to ensure that new construction is hydrogen-ready," said Pete Sheffield, Enbridge’s chief sustainability officer. Sempra's Southern California Gas (SoCalGas) utility, which supplies gas to 22 million consumers, is working on pilot programs to test the fuel in its pipelines and see how a blend with natural gas affects the company's pipes, as well as appliances and other equipment. The first project would blend hydrogen in a mostly residential area that SoCalGas can isolate from the rest of its distribution system, said Jawaad Malik, chief environmental officer. Virginia-based Dominion is testing a 5% hydrogen blend in a training facility in Utah and recently proposed a similar pilot in North Carolina, said Dominion spokesperson Aaron Ruby. Hydrogen is only considered clean if it is produced using low- or no-carbon emitting energy sources like biomass, nuclear, renewables or fossil fuels paired with carbon capture technology. "These types of proposals have not yet shown a path to a deeply decarbonized gas system," said Julie McNamara, senior energy analyst for the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Supreme Court Rules New Jersey Can’t Block Natural-Gas Pipeline - WSJ—The Supreme Court on Tuesday removed a hurdle to the construction of a natural-gas pipeline through Pennsylvania and New Jersey, ruling the pipeline developer could invoke the power of the federal government to take state property needed for the project.The court’s 5-4 opinion, by Chief Justice John Roberts, handed a considerable victory to the natural-gas industry by rejecting New Jersey’s challenge to the actions of the PennEast Pipeline Co., a joint venture of several energy companies that aims to build a 116-mile interstate pipeline.The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorized the project and, under the Natural Gas Act, that approval allowed the company to use federal eminent domain power to take possession of the land, if necessary.PennEast said it was able to negotiate rights of way with most property owners, but went to court in its bid to take dozens of parcels of land—with compensation—in which the state of New Jersey holds a property interest. New Jersey objected on sovereign-immunity grounds, arguing that a private party like PennEast, a Delaware company, can’t drag a sovereign state into federal court against that state’s wishes.
U.S. Supreme Court rules PennEast pipeline project can use eminent domain to take N.J. state land | StateImpact Pennsylvania - In a 5-4 decision Tuesday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the state of New Jersey cannot block construction of the PennEast natural gas pipeline on state lands. The decision upholds PennEast’s authority – granted by the federal government — to seize the land through eminent domain. New Jersey argued the 11th Amendment, which grants states immunity from private lawsuits, prevented PennEast from condemning the 42 parcels either owned by New Jersey directly or held as conservation easements. Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts said Congress, through the Natural Gas Act, allows such condemnation in the interest of building a nationwide system of pipelines, as well as other infrastructure. “When the Framers met in Philadelphia in the summer of 1787, they sought to create a cohesive national sovereign in response to the failings of the Articles of Confederation,” he wrote. “Over the course of the Nation’s history, the Federal Government and its delegatees have exercised the eminent domain power to give effect to that vision, connecting our country through turnpikes, bridges, and railroads—and more recently pipelines, telecommunications infrastructure, and electric transmission facilities. And we have repeatedly upheld these exercises of the federal eminent domain power — whether by the Government or a private corporation, whether through an upfront taking or a direct condemnation proceeding, and whether against private property or state-owned land.” Justices Stephen Breyer, Samuel Alito, Sonia Sotomayor and Brett Kavanaugh, representing both conservative and liberal justices, joined Roberts. Writing for the dissent, Justice Amy Coney Barrett said the 11th Amendment guarantee of a state’s sovereign immunity does bar PennEast from suing to seize the land. “If private parties cannot sue nonconsenting States, the Court says, delegatees would have no practical means of taking state property,” she wrote. “And that is inconsistent with the Constitution, the Court tells us, because ‘[a]n eminent domain power that is incapable of being exercised amounts to no eminent domain power at all.’ … The flaw in this logic is glaring: The eminent domain power belongs to the United States, not to PennEast, and the United States is free to take New Jersey’s property through a condemnation suit or some other mechanism.”
Supreme Court Decision Could Revive the Potomac Pipeline Project – Maryland Matters - The U.S. Supreme Court sided with a pipeline company on Tuesday, ruling that pipeline projects with federal approval can seize state-owned land to build natural gas pipelines. Environmentalists say this decision could speed construction of a controversial pipeline proposed to run through a narrow stretch of Maryland near Hancock and under the Potomac River to deliver gas to West Virginia’s panhandle. The matter has been under litigation for the past two years after Maryland refused to grant the pipeline company access. In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that PennEast Pipeline Co. can take land from New Jersey to build a 116-mile natural-gas pipeline through Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The decision in PennEast v. New Jersey is binding and has bearing on a similar lawsuit filed by a pipeline company against the state of Maryland, according to Anne Havemann, general counsel for Chesapeake Climate Action Network. “Today’s ruling goes against a long history of preserving a state’s authority to protect natural resources within its borders from harmful interstate projects, and should be a wake up call to state leaders to find new ways to protect their interests,” Phillip Musegaas, vice president of the Potomac Riverkeeper Network, said in a statement. “In the Potomac pipeline case, an unwanted fracked gas pipeline — that would result in increased emission of harmful greenhouse gases and risk the safety of drinking water for six million downstream residents and the health of the Potomac River — could be built despite strong objection from Maryland’s governor and Maryland residents,” he continued. At issue is a lawsuit that Columbia Gas Transmission filed against the state of Maryland in 2019, after the Board of Public Works voted unanimously not to grant an easement for the company’s “Eastern Panhandle Expansion Project,” a 3.5 mile pipeline that would transport natural gas from Pennsylvania to West Virginia by crossing through Washington County. The pipeline project needed an easement to drill beneath the Western Maryland Rail Trail, which is state-owned land. The company, which is a part of TC Energy and based in Canada, has already built sections of the pipeline in Pennsylvania and West Virginia and needs the right to cross through Maryland to complete the project.
Cambria, Somerset join lawsuit against state renewable energy board - Several local municipalities and advocacy groups are part of a lawsuit filed against the Office of Renewable Energy Siting (ORES) accusing the state agency of violating state law when it failed to comply with the State Environmental Quality Review Act (SEQRA) and not take a “hard look” at the environmental consequences of its regulations, among other allegations. Ben Wisniewski, an attorney with the Zoghlin Group PLLC, that filed the lawsuit in Albany County, Tuesday, represents 13 petitioners, including the Town of Cambria, the Town of Somerset and the Town of Yates, as well as three other towns in New York and seven advocacy and education groups including Cambria Opposition to Industrial Solar (COIS) and Save Ontario Shores (SOS). SEQR violations “The allegation here is when this new ORES siting body was drafting its regulations for power plants, they failed to engage in the environmental review required by SEQRA,” Wisniewski explained. “That’s the violation.” The chain of violations allegedly built by ORES begins by not listing its actions as Type 1, a classification which means there is an impact caused by a governmental action. Instead ORES classified its actions, its insertion of a one-size-fits-all regulations for solar and wind projects, as unlisted, “relieving itself of its duty to prepare a full Environmental Assessment Form,” as written in the lawsuit. And the chain continues. “Even though it was unlisted, they still should’ve done a review,” Wisniewski said. “Because even when you classify an act as unlisted, you still have to determine whether or not the action even may have one adverse environmental impact.”
Public Service Commission taking input on proposed $540M sale of Mountaineer Gas to UGI - West Virginia utility regulators want to hear what you have to say about a half-billion-dollar deal in which the natural gas provider to 215,000 customers across 50 counties will be sold to a Pennsylvania company. The Public Service Commission is holding a public comment hearing July 20 on the proposed $540 million sale of Charleston-based Mountaineer Gas Co. to the King of Prussia, Pennsylvania-based energy holding company UGI. Mountaineer Gas and UGI filed a joint petition in January asking the commission to approve the sale, which includes an assumption of $140 million in debt. UGI reported having $1.5 billion in total liquidity available at the end of its 2020 fiscal year in the January petition. UGI said that month the acquisition would increase the company’s regulated utility rate base and customers served by nearly 14% and 30%, respectively. A rate base is the value of a company’s assets. The parties’ joint filing said employees and local leadership of Mountaineer Gas involved in day-to-day operations would remain, and the company’s “day-to-day operational expertise” would not be adversely affected by the sale. UGI told the commission it will maintain Mountaineer’s headquarters in West Virginia and the use of the “Mountaineer Gas Company” name.
Unplanned Outage at 2 WV MarkWest Plants Knocks 2.4 Bcf/d Offline --It doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it’s disconcerting. We’re talking about an “operational event” (i.e. outage) at not one but two MarkWest Energy natural gas processing plants–both in West Virginia. MarkWest’s Sherwood plant in Doddridge County and Mobley plant in Wetzel County are affected. According to NGI’s Daily Gas Price Index, four pipeline receipt locations affected by the outage are scheduled to go to zero beginning today “until further notice.”
Stream crossings continue to muddy the waters for Mountain Valley Pipeline -Whatever method builders of the Mountain Valley Pipeline use to get from one side of a waterbody to another — either a trench dug along the bottom or a tunnel bored below — it won’t be happening anytime soon.The latest delay came Monday, when the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said it will extend to Dec. 31 a deadline for state regulators to decide if digging trenches will pose an unacceptable risk to the streams and wetlands of Southwest Virginia.Earlier this year, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality sought a postponement from July 2, which it said would not allow enough time for a water quality certification that requires detailed analysis and public comment.Mountain Valley is seeking approval for about 150 open-cut crossings in Virginia, which entail temporarily damming a waterway, digging a trench along the exposed bottom, burying the 42-inch diameter pipe and then restoring the water flow.“This extension was absolutely essential — and we hope it will be sufficient — for Virginia regulators to thoroughly review the Mountain Valley Pipeline’s impacts on individual Virginia waters,” said Peter Anderson, Virginia policy director for Appalachian Voices.The joint venture building the natural gas pipeline also “fully supports” the deadline extension, spokeswoman Natalie Cox said Monday. Since it began work on the 303-mile pipeline though West Virginia and the New River and Roanoke valleys, Mountain Valley has encountered repeated problems with erosion and sedimentation. That has led to lawsuits by environmental groups and delays in a construction project that was supposed to be done by late 2018.In a May conference call, executives for the pipeline’s lead partner said they plan to have nearly all of the construction done by September. That will provide time to obtain approvals for water body crossings in order to complete the project by next summer, the company says.Meanwhile, it remained unclear Monday whether Virginia would require a separate water quality certification for boring under the nearly 100 waterbodies that will not crossed using the open-cut method.Final approval for that plan rests with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. In May, FERC asked DEQ if it wanted to weigh in on the borings before a decision was made at the federal level.
Photos and video: Invoking 'Old Hills and Old Folks Resist' to protest Mountain Valley Pipeline - Protesters opposed to the Mountain Valley Pipeline on Wednesday blocked access to part of the natural gas pipeline construction project in a mountainous section of Roanoke County near the community of Bent Mountain. Roanoke County police said just before 8 p.m. Wednesday that officers had extricated two of the three people and arrested them on charges of obstruction of justice, obstructing free passage of others and unlawful assembly. Bridget Kelley, 63, of Rockbridge County; back left, Deborah Kushner, 66, of Staunton, top center; and Alan Moore, 57, of Blacksburg are pictured locked to Moore’s 1999 Ford Crown Victoria on Wednesday morning, blocking access to a Mountain Valley Pipeline easement and work yard at the top of Poor Mountain. “We are the elder contingent to show you don’t have to be a young whippersnapper to fight a pipeline,” Kushner said. Roanoke County police officials inspect a Mountain Valley Pipeline blockade along Honeysuckle Road on Wednesday morning. Deborah Kushner, 66, of Staunton, sits in a rocking chair atop the 1999 Ford Crown Victoria while Bridget Kelley, 63, of Rockbridge County is locked beside and Alan Moore, 57, of Blacksburg is locked in the back seat. The trio panted the old vehicle with animals and birds and the words “Old Hills & Old Folks RESIST." Deborah Kushner, 66, of Staunton, sits in a rocking chair atop the 1999 Ford Crown Victoria while Bridget Kelley, 63, of Rockbridge County is locked beside it with her arm in the gas tank and Alan Moore, 57, of Blacksburg is locked in the back seat. Deborah Kushner, 66, of Staunton was part of the trio blocking a Mountain Valley Pipeline easement and work yard on Poor Mountain on Wednesday. “We are the elder contingent to show you don’t have to be a young whippersnapper to fight a pipeline,” she said. Bridget Kelley, 63, of Rockbridge County went to high school in Roanoke County. Kelley and her fellow "Old Folks" know each other from their activism over the years, including ground support work for Theresa "Red" Terry and her daughter, Minor Terry, who stayed in tree stands for 34 days in 2018 to stop pipeline workers. "I really do believe she [Red] did inspire many to take action and at least listen,” Kelley said.
Pittsylvania County NAACP calls on DEQ to facilitate public participation in MVP hearing — In a letter dated June 27, 2021, the Pittsylvania County NAACP objected to the Air Pollution Control Board hearing on an air permit for the Mountain Valley Pipeline Lambert Compressor Station. The hearing will be held as a one-day, in-person-only meeting at a private hotel in Richmond, 150 miles from the proposed site in Pittsylvania County. As Virginia boards and agencies wrestle with how to execute Virginia’s fledgling Environmental Justice Act, Pittsylvania NAACP President Anita Royston told DEQ Director David Paylor that, "Thus far, DEQ and the Air Board have not performed due diligence in outreach, identifying environmental justice communities, and determining the potential health impacts on those of us living near the project. Local residents are at risk of falling through the large crevice between good intentions and genuine progress in Virginia’s efforts to ensure environmental justice throughout the commonwealth." The NAACP request is to make it possible for everyone who is eligible to address the air board directly in person, by telephone or over the internet; to provide access so that everyone can see or hear the proceedings and learn from the full range of voices; and to consider holding the meeting closer to Pittsylvania County.
Energy Transfer Sues To Keep Pipeline Risk Info Private –Law 360 (paywalled)
Natural gas pipeline planned in Bullitt County — The state’s largest utility company is planning a new natural gas pipeline in Bullitt County. Louisville Gas and Electric wants to build 12 miles of pipeline near Bernheim Forest. LG&E spokeswoman Natasha Collins says it’s needed for a couple of big reasons, the primary one being to prepare for potential problems with the existing lines. “So if there was something that happened to that existing line, there is the potential for service interruption for those customers,” Collins said. The growth of Bullitt County is another factor: Census data shows the county grew about 10% over the last decade. “And so we want to continue to support that growth and expansion within our community,” Collins said. “And that’s serving our customers, supporting the Commonwealth and Bullitt County, and it’s growth and expansion. We take all of those commitments seriously.” The project has opponents, though. Landowners near Bernheim Forest refused to sell land for the project, and LG&E eventually condemned the land and took it through eminent domain. A Bullitt County judge ruled in LG&E’s favor in May, but the ruling could be appealed. Bernheim Forest is involved in a separate lawsuit because the pipeline would cross land they own.
Rome queries AGL on repaving roads damaged by pipeline construction -Rome officials are waiting to hear from Atlanta Gas Light regarding repaving asphalt roads around the city that have been damaged as a result of pipeline construction. City Manager Sammy Rich said they’re unsure which roads will be paved by the gas company. Once plans are confirmed with AGL, the city will assess the rest of the damage and move from there. The 9.3-mile pipeline will provide a 300 psi system feeding roughly 494,000 cubic feet of natural gas per hour to the International Paper plant in Coosa. The average residential home uses about 168 cubic feet a day. Over 80% of the pipeline work is finished, according to the latest weekly progress report published on June 23. At this point the company estimates the pipeline will be complete and functional by Sept. 8.
Democrats in Oil Country Worried by Party’s Natural-Gas Agenda - —Democratic Party progressives are pushing President Biden to include in his infrastructure agenda stringent measures to address climate change, including policies designed to end the nation’s reliance on natural gas as a fuel source.The more the progressives succeed, the more moderate Democrats in energy-producing states become vulnerable to losing seats that are crucial to the party’s hold on Congress, current and former House members say.The White House announced a deal last week with centrist lawmakers in the Senate on a roughly $1 trillion package focused on traditional infrastructure such as roads and bridges. On a separate track, Democrats are advancing a second bill—without Republican input—that among other goals aims to eliminate greenhouse-gas emissions from electric power generation by 2035.The Democrats have a similar target of 2050 for other emissions sources, including factories, trucks, automobiles and homes. That is a political headache for moderates such as Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D., Texas), who in 2018 flipped a Republican-held House seat. Ms. Fletcher’s Houston-area House district ranks second in the nation for employment tied to the oil and gas industries, according to the American Petroleum Institute. “Gas is a part of our energy mix, “ said Ms. Fletcher. She has overcome Republican attack ads portraying her as a problem for the natural-gas industry with a message that contrasts with that of the rest of her party: “I think it will be a part of our energy mix well into the future.” Energy policy is high on the list of issues creating strife among Democrats, along with other themes such as universal healthcare and police reform. Energy would be at the center of the second, all-Democrat infrastructure bill, which would require support from centrists—including Sen. Joe Manchin, who hails from West Virginia, a fracking state—given the Democrats’ narrow 220-211 majority in the House and the evenly divided Senate.Some moderates are distancing themselves from the progressive push to increase regulation of natural gas extraction. In January, four Texas House Democrats wrote to Mr. Biden asking him to abandon an executive order suspending new oil and gas leases on federal public lands and waters.Along with Ms. Fletcher, the letter was signed by Reps. Vicente Gonzalez, Henry Cuellar, and Marc Veasey, who said Mr. Biden’s policy “would have far-reaching negative consequences,’’ including the “near-term loss of potentially one million jobs.’’
FERC repeats it cannot assess gas project's climate impact in expanded review - The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has released the draft version of an additional climate review of a pending Columbia Gulf Transmission pipeline project in Louisiana, finding once more that agency staff could not draw conclusions about the significance of natural gas projects' contributions to climate change. The pipeline developer's eight-mile, 725 MMcf/d East Lateral XPress Project is one of five pending gas projects that received a May 27 notice from FERC, saying the regulator planned to perform additional environmental assessments of their potential contributions to climate change. The draft environmental impact statement issued by FERC on June 25 marked the third draft review issued for projects on track to receive the additional consideration of climate change impacts (CP20-527). The conclusions reached by FERC staff are similar in the three draft reviews released so far, underscoring the uncertainty for developers of gas projects as the regulator develops its approach to assessing climate change impacts. "Commission staff conclude that construction and operation of the project would not result in significant environmental impacts, with the exception of climate change impacts, where FERC staff is unable to determine significance," the draft review for the East Lateral XPress Project said. FERC Chairman Richard Glick has defended the added climate reviews, saying they will strengthen the legal durability of permitting decisions and that it remains up to commissioners to work out how to determine the significance of projects' contributions to global warming. Glick has also said the commission would analyze climate impacts of pipeline projects on a case-by-case basis while it prepared a potential update to the agency's decades-old policy for permitting pipelines. "From my perspective, I do see the analyses that are going to come down from the environmental impact statements as potentially helping the commissioners, including myself, determine whether the emissions associated with those projects are significant," Glick told reporters June 17. "In my opinion, we can make that analysis, we should make that analysis, and the courts have told us we have to do that analysis." Each of the five projects being subjected to the expanded reviews already received less-extensive environmental assessments from FERC. Each of the projects had also been protested. The recommendations on assessing climate could evolve by the time final environmental impacts for the projects are finished, and Glick said he would be "comfortable going forward" with decisions on certificate applications once they are. FERC has said it plans to release final environmental impact statements in the fall and that the expanded reviews would build off the environmental assessments that had already been completed.
‘Virtually Unheard Of’ Temperatures Spark More Gains for Expiring July Natural Gas Contract; Cash Surges -- July natural gas futures charged like a lion Monday, surging 12.1 cents from Friday’s levels as a historic heat wave continued to smother the Pacific Northwest, leading to pipeline issues and amplified demand. Notable heat also blanketed the East Coast, and with forecasts pointing to more hot weather ahead, the July Nymex contract extended its streak of gains to five days, expiring at $3.617. August, which takes over the prompt-month position on Tuesday, jumped 7.3 cents to $3.593. Spot gas prices also continued to strengthen, with prices nearing $7.00 in California and $4.00 in the Rockies. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. rose 40.0 cents to $3.775. The scorching temperatures in the normally mild Pacific Northwest soared to “unheard of” heights beginning over the weekend, with Portland, OR, setting back-to-back records, according to AccuWeather. On Saturday, daytime temperatures climbed to 108 degrees and on Sunday, they hit a “staggering” 112 degrees. Before this weekend, the highest temperature ever recorded in the city was 107, set once in July 1965 and twice in August 1981, the forecaster said. “Temperatures of 110 degrees or greater are virtually unheard of west of the Cascades,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Randy Adkins said. Records also were broken in Seattle, which shot up to 104 on Sunday. It was the second day in a row that temperatures crested the century mark, a record in itself. The blistering conditions in the region combined with impressive heat on the East Coast to send futures prices higher early in the session. Although the prompt month opened the session slightly in the red, the July contract had climbed nearly 6.0 cents higher before 9 a.m. ET. The moderate gains occurred in the face of a slightly cooler outlook for the eastern United States beginning late this week. However, traders quickly brushed off the near-term data since weather models indicated that hot weather could return as soon as next week. NatGasWeather said an upper high pressure is set to expand toward the eastern United States by July 6, resulting in highs in the mid-80s to 100s over most U.S. regions. The forecaster expects national demand to strengthen at that time and remain elevated through at least July 12. “What helps make the coming pattern bullish is the likelihood of a hot pattern for the 11- to 15-day period (July 7-12) carrying over to the 16- to 20-day period (July 13-17),” NatGasWeather said.
Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Extend Rallies Amid Brutal Heat, Robust Demand -- August natural gas prices started to show signs of slowing down Tuesday. But as oppressive heat led to more shattered records and rolling blackouts in the Pacific Northwest, the new prompt month edged up another 3.7 cents to $3.630 in its debut at the front of the Nymex futures. September climbed 3.4 cents to $3.606. Natural gas cash prices also continued to swell amid the intense heat and high humidity. Next-day gas surged past $7.00 in California and to $12.00 in the Northeast, helping to lift NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. 30.5 cents to $4.080. In one of the more volatile nonwinter trading sessions in years, the August futures contract soared early to an intraday high above $3.80-, more than 20 cents above Monday’s settle. But it sold off almost as quickly. “There is definitely nothing in either weather or fundamentals data that can explain such crazy price action, as it had the feel of a couple of larger players being forced to stop out, leading to the massive spike higher,” said Bespoke Weather Services. With Tuesday being so chaotic, “we feel being neutral is prudent.” At the forefront of the early rally is the intense heat baking much of the United States. The hot, dry summer playing out in the Pacific Northwest has resulted in “temperatures that would make a Texan blush,” according to The Schork Group. More than three-quarters of the West is in “severe” drought, and “exceptional” dry conditions are in more than a quarter of the region, the firm noted. That “spells trouble” for California, Oregon and Washington, where 42% of the total U.S. generation comes from hydroelectric power. There appears to be little reprieve from the sweltering heat for at least another several days. Although some coastal areas may start to cool off a bit, AccuWeather said the unusually high temperatures would likely persist east of the Cascades and throughout Western Canada into the early days of July.
U.S. natgas edges up to fresh 30-month high on rising demand forecasts -(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up to a fresh 30-month high on Wednesday on soaring global gas prices and forecasts for higher U.S. air-conditioning and export demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 2.0 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $3.650 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since December 2018 for a third day in a row. That also kept the front-month in overbought territory with a relative strength index (RSI) over 70 for a fifth day in a row and put the contract up for a seventh day in a row for the first time since November 2017. For the month, the contract gained about 22%, putting it up for a third month in a row for the first time since October 2019. For the quarter, the contract gained about 40%, putting it up for a record fifth quarter in a row. In the power market, prices for Wednesday soared to $126 per megawatt hour in New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX, their highest since November 2018, as a heat wave started to bake the region. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would slide from 94.5 bcfd this week to 92.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns slightly milder. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv projected on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slipped to an average of 10.1 bcfd so far in June due mostly to short-term maintenance at Gulf Coast facilities and the pipelines that supply them with fuel. That compares with averages of 10.8 bcfd in May and a record 11.5 bcfd in April. But with European TRNLTTFMc1 and Asian JKMc1 gas both trading over $12 per mmBtu, analysts said buyers around the world should keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, the European gas benchmark, was at its highest since November 2008. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 6.7 bcfd so far in June, on track to top May's 6.2-bcfd record.
Natural Gas Futures Mark Eighth Straight Gain as Market Has ‘No Clue’ on Duration of TCO Issues -- The uncertainty created by a sharp decline in production proved too much to bear (no pun intended) for the natural gas market on Thursday. Traders eventually brushed off a large miss in the latest government storage report, sending the August Nymex gas futures up another 1.1 cents to $3.661. The September contract tacked on eighth-tenths of a cent to $3.632. Spot gas prices continued to tumble from recent highs. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. plunged 19.5 cents to $3.415. With temperatures starting to retreat from historic highs in the Pacific Northwest, and the East Coast expected to be downright cool in parts of the region over the Independence Day weekend, all attention was on the Nymex futures market Thursday. After seven straight days in the green, market observers were eager to see whether news of a major production drop in the Northeast could fuel another rally. The August Nymex contract indeed spiked, rising above $3.750 early in the session. However, futures began to soften ahead of the latest round of storage data, likely because cash trading was underway and decreases were widespread. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) launched a “bear bomb” on the natural gas market, reporting a much larger-than-expected 76 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending June 25. The EIA figure was slightly outside the range of expectations in major surveys and 3 Bcf above last year’s build for the similar period. The five-year average stood at 65 Bcf. August futures, which had softened to around $3.640 in the minutes leading up to the EIA report, sank to $3.629 as the print crossed trading desks. It then briefly slipped below $3.600. Bespoke Weather Services said the 76 Bcf injection was roughly 3 Bcf/d looser than last week’s 55 Bcf build, “which is a lot.” Still, considering how strong last week’s number was, the firm did not view the EIA report as “inherently bearish.” In pipeline notices issued Wednesday, TCO and EQM Midstream Partners LP said a MarkWest operational event was affecting the Sherwood and Mobley processing plants in West Virginia. That is limiting receipts onto TCO and EQM Midstream by up to 2.4 Bcf/d.
Natural gas prices remain firm after US storage fields add 76 Bcf to inventories | S&P Global Platts - US natural gas storage fields posted an above-average storage build for the week ended June 25, but high demand stemming from a heat wave might prompt a net withdrawal from some regions for the week in progress keeping prices elevated. Working gas storage inventories increased 76 Bcf to 2.558 Tcf, the US Energy Information Administration reported June 24. The build was stronger than the 63 Bcf addition expected by an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts, as well as the five-year average build of 65 Bcf, according to EIA data. Both the Henry Hub balance-of-summer and next-winter contract strips are trading lower on the day following a storage inventory report that showed inventories rising much more than expected. Immediately following the EIA storage report, Henry Hub futures prices traded as much as 7 cents/MMBtu lower on the day. The selloff largely subsided by afternoon, with prices through October trading around 2 cents/MMBtu lower on the day to average $3.61/MMBtu. Slightly heavier selling pressure was seen on the November-March strip, which traded down roughly 6 cents/MMBtu on the day. Still, prices are up nearly 20 cents from a week ago. Already meager summer-to-winter spreads have narrowed to 5 cents as of July 1, down from an average spread of 13 cents/MMBtu in June. Total US supply for the week ended June 25 added 600 MMcf/d week on week after a 1 Bcf/d surge in onshore production was diminished partly by a roughly 500 MMcf/d drop in net Canadian imports, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Downstream, a healthy uptick in LNG feedgas demand along the US Gulf Coast was overshadowed by a roughly 2 Bcf/d drop in gas-fired generation demand, resulting in average daily demand falling by 800 MMcf/d on the week. These divergent trends left US balances looser by 1.4 Bcf/d, resulting in a much larger storage build week on week. Platts Analytics supply and demand model currently forecasts a 22 Bcf injection for the week ending July 2, which would measure 41 Bcf below the five-year average. Power generation demand gains overshadowed most movements among fundamentals for the week in progress. Total supply retracted by roughly 200 MMcf/d on the week, after a sharp drop in production was partially offset by a recovery in net Canadian imports. Total demand has surged due to a massive increase in cooling loads, which propelled power demand 5.5 Bcf/d higher on the week. It was accompanied by a nearly 1 Bcf/d increase in LNG feedgas demand. Overall, the gains in demand were slightly pared by a sizable drop in exports to Mexico, alongside smaller declines in both residential and commercial and industrial demand. All three major demand regions, Midwest, East and South Central, reported a significant retraction in storage injections for the week ending July 2 in order to meet the record-breaking demand seen during the ongoing heat wave. The South Central region led the way with a 14 Bcf reduction, actually flipping to a net withdrawal for the week.
U.S. natgas edges up to fresh 30-month high on rising demand forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures on Friday rose to a fresh 30-month high ahead of the July Fourth holiday weekend with a drop in output due to a problem with a natural gas liquids pipeline in West Virginia and on soaring global gas prices. Traders said the U.S. price increase came despite forecasts for less hot weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 3.9 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $3.700 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since December 2018 for a fifth day in a row. That kept the front-month in overbought territory with a relative strength index (RSI) over 70 for a seventh straight day, and put the contract up for a ninth day in a row for the first time since March 2017. For the week, the contract gained about 6% after rising about 9% last week. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states dropped to an average of 87.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July due mostly to the pipeline problem in West Virginia. That compares with an average of 92.2 bcfd in June and an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would slide from 93.3 bcfd this week to 89.9 bcfd next week as the U.S. July Fourth holiday and milder weather cuts air conditioning use, before rising to 93.8 bcfd in two weeks when the weather is forecast to turn seasonally hotter. The outlook for next week was a little lower than Refinitiv projected on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 10.9 bcfd so far in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below the record 11.5 bcfd in April. With European TRNLTTFMc1 and Asian JKMc1 gas both trading over $12 per mmBtu, analysts said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, the European gas benchmark, was near its highest since October 2008. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 6.4 bcfd so far in July, down from a record 6.7 bcfd in June.
U.S. natgas producers hope customers will pay more for 'green gas' (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas producers hope climate-conscious electric utilities and gas exporters will pay a premium for what they say is “greener gas” that has been certified as coming from low-emission operations or from renewable sources such as landfills. EQT Corp, Chesapeake Energy and liquefied natural gas firms Cheniere Energy and NextDecade Corp are among the companies considering low-carbon certifications from groups such as Denver-based Project Canary. Gas certified as “responsibly produced” and contributing less emissions could get up to 5% above market prices, or up to 15-cents per thousand cubic feet (mcf), proponents say.So far, not many customers have been willing to pay the premium -- a problem for firms trying to sell lower-carbon versions of fossil fuels. Some European buyers have shunned U.S. shale gas and several U.S. cities including New York and San Francisco have sought to ban new residential gas connections over environmental concerns.In 2020, the pandemic rocked the economy and U.S. gas prices fell to a 25-year low average of $2.11 per mcf. Idle drillers pushed U.S. gas output down 2%, the first annual drop in four years. While power plants consumed a record amount of gas in 2020, wind and solar have been gaining market share as preferred alternatives to dirtier coal for electric generation.With the economy recovering, U.S. benchmark gas prices are up over 40% this year to about $3.70 per mcf.“When you’re talking about trillions of cubic feet of global gas production, mere pennies in price movement can make all the difference between profitability and losses,” said Kentaro Kawamori, chief executive of Persefoni, which develops tools to measure a company’s carbon footprint.
Tellurian weighs 'business combination' to aid upstream plan tied to Driftwood LNG - Tellurian will consider a "business combination" to ensure it has sufficient natural gas reserves to support its proposed Driftwood LNG export facility in Louisiana, Executive Chairman Charif Souki said June 29 in a podcast message to employees and investors. The plan follows the company's announcement in March, during an interview with S&P Global Platts, that it wants to produce all the gas it will need to feed Driftwood and would not sanction the project until it had secured sufficient upstream reserves for the first phase of the terminal project. To realize that goal, Tellurian needs to get bigger in the upstream, and faster, even as it drills more wells in the Haynesville Shale on its own acreage and in partnership with other producers. Those efforts alone are expected to almost triple Tellurian's production by the end of 2021 -- to 80 MMcf/d -- compared with the end of 2020, Souki said. "Clearly, this is not sufficient for integrating the full picture of what we will need five years from today," Souki said. "We are in a position now to start looking seriously at a business combination that will make sense for our integrated business model." Souki did not say whether such a combination would be limited to the production side of the company, or also include the LNG side of the company. He also did not say whether any M&A talks were underway or, if they were, with whom. A spokeswoman did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The up to 27.6 million mt/year export facility is to be built in phases, with the first phase covering about 16 million mt/year of capacity. Tellurian is targeting to give Bechtel a notice to proceed with full construction of the terminal by the end of the first quarter of next year.
U.S. ethane exports surge with additional export capacity and expanded tanker fleet --U.S. ethane exports reached an all-time high in March 2021 after a new export facility started operations and the tanker fleet that carries liquefied ethane overseas expanded.Ethane exports surpassed 370,000 barrels per day (b/d) in March, including more than 280,000 b/d of waterborne exports. We expect growth in U.S. ethane exports to accelerate this year and next from an annual average of 281,000 b/d in 2020 to annual averages of 374,000 b/d in 2021 and 447,000 b/d in 2022, according to our JuneShort-Term Energy Outlook.U.S. exports of ethane began in 2014. The first U.S. export pipelines for ethane were completed in 2014 to transport ethane to petrochemical plants in Canada. U.S. waterborne ethane exports began in 2016, when two waterborne export terminals (one in Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, and one in Morgan’s Point, Texas) began operations. Capacity at the waterborne export terminals expanded from 275,000 b/d in 2016 to 305,000 b/d in 2019. In January 2021, athird export terminal began operations at Nederland, Texas, which increased U.S. capacity for waterborne exports by more than 170,000 b/d.In addition to new export capacity, the capacity to ship ethane has also grown rapidly. Specially built tankers carry ethane that is cryogenically cooled to -128°F so it can be transported as a liquid. The tankers range from coasters that carry ethane or ethylene over short distances to very large ethane carriers (VLECs) designed to carry up to 1 million barrels on intercontinental routes. Until late 2020, eight VLECs were operating, all serving U.S. terminals. Near the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021, six new VLECs entered service, and another six VLECs are expected to be delivered and begin shipping ethane near the end of 2021. Exports account for an increasing share of total U.S. ethane demand. In 2020, the United States exported about 16% of domestic ethane production, which rose from none in 2013. By 2018, the United States exported to six countries that had infrastructure to import cryogenically cooled ethane at coastal terminals connected to ethylene crackers. Now eight countries—Canada, China, India, the United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden, Mexico, and Brazil—can accept U.S. ethane exports. Ethane is used primarily as a petrochemical feedstock, which means it is fed into ethylene crackers and heated to temperatures between 1,450°F to 1,600°F to break the ethane molecule down into ethylene. Ethylene is further processed to create derivatives such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and ethylene glycol (EG), but the most common process is polymerization to make polyethylene (PE), a common base component of plastics.
Oil and gas exports give the US a strategic geopolitical tool - Earlier this month, Judge Terry Doughty of the Western District of Louisiana lifted the Biden administration’s attempt to halt lease sales for oil and gas production on federal lands and waters. Doughty issued a preliminary injunction on the administration’s plan after 13 states sued. The lease of federal lands for oil and gas production provides millions of dollars of revenue for the states and local governments and economies. Beyond the legal arguments, though, the resumption of federal land leases is critical to pursuing America’s geopolitical goals. The United States is blessed with an abundance of natural resources, among them plentiful reserves of oil and natural gas. We can either use these resources to our own advantage, both domestically and as exports, or we can cripple our own energy production, limiting our potential. In this decision, we must consider that exported fuel is not only a source of wealth; it is also a powerful tool of geopolitical influence. It can be tempting to dream of a world that uses less fossil fuel, but the Biden administration’s plan to halt lease sales would do nothing to further this aspiration. Rather, the Biden administration’s plan would curb only domestic oil and gas production, not consumption. In other words, it would cut supply while demand keeps rising. The immediate result would be two-fold: higher prices and increased imports, often from countries that don’t align with our interests. Supply would stagnate or drop if domestic oil and gas production is not allowed to prosper. When supply is lower and demand continues to rise, as it inevitably will, prices rise. Under the Biden plan, we would pay more for our oil and gas. Energy exports aren’t just about trade and growing the U.S. economy. In oil and gas exports, the U.S. holds a critical strategic geopolitical tool. For example, the Trump administration, in its Phase 1 trade deal with China, negotiated a requirement for China, the world’s largest oil importer, to purchase large amounts of American oil and petroleum products. In another part of the world, America’s abundance of natural gas can be used to counteract Russia’s influence on Europe. Through deals like the one recently concluded between the U.S. and Poland, we can halt Russian geopolitical encroachment on a Europe desperate for fuel.
CITGO agrees to $19.7 million settlement to mitigate 2006 oil spill in Calcasieu River - CITGO Petroleum Corp. has agreed to pay $19.7 million to restore natural resources damaged during a 2006 spill of more than 2 million gallons of waste oil and millions of gallons of wastewater into the Calcasieu River estuary from its Westlake refinery, in a consent decree entered into with the U.S. Justice Department and federal and Louisiana state trustees and filed in federal court in Lake Charles.Taken together with earlier settlements, the deal means the company will have paid nearly $115 million in fines over the damage the spill caused. Plans call for using $19.2 million of the new settlement in Calcasieu Parish to restore parts of the 150-mile stretch of the estuary damaged by the spill, said Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator Sam Jones. Jones said the state Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority will be the lead state agency in determining how the money will be used. The remaining settlement money will be used to reimburse federal and state agencies for unpaid damage assessment costs.A draft damage assessment and restoration plan, required by the federal Oil Pollution Act, is being developed by state and federal trustees representing the oil spill coordinator's office, CPRA, the Louisiana Departments of Environmental Quality, Natural Resources, and Wildlife & Fisheries, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service. No date has been set for its completion. The settlement is the latest multi-million dollar payment made by the company for environmental violations involving the 2006 spill and other spills or federal or state environmental law violations at the Lake Charles area plant. “At least 54,000 barrels (2,268,000 gallons) of waste (or ‘slop’) oil and untold millions of gallons of oily wastewater flowed into the waterways during the incident,” said the U.S. Justice Departmentcomplaint against the company, which was filed June 17 along with the consent decree in U.S. District Court in Lake Charles.
How bankruptcy lets oil and gas companies evade cleanup rules "It's basically bankruptcy for profit." - A battle over who is responsible for cleaning up hundreds of oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico is quietly playing out in a bankruptcy court in southern Texas. The contestants in this game of fossil fuel infrastructure hot potato: Fieldwood Energy, an offshore drilling company attempting to offload more than $7 billion in environmental cleanup responsibilities; a group of oil majors including Chevron, Marathon Oil, and BP; and the Department of the Interior.*Fieldwood has declared bankruptcy, and a court is considering the company’s plan to split its assets, moving older legacy wells and drilling rigs that are expensive to clean up into two entities while creating a new company — appropriately named NewCo — to purchase the more profitable assets. The company proposes outright abandoning a fourth bucket of assets consisting of more than 1,170 wells, 280 pipelines, and 270 drilling platforms. Aging wells and drilling platforms pose multiple risks to the environment and human safety, including oil and gas leaks and explosions. A quirk in the regulations that govern offshore drilling allows the Interior Department to hold companies that previously operated on Fieldwood leases accountable for the cleanup. The department is charged with protecting public lands — both on land and offshore — and issues leases to more than 12 million acres of seabed, including in the Gulf. A single lease can contain multiple wells, and many of the leases that Fieldwood is proposing to abandon or “return” to predecessor companies could end up the responsibility of oil majors, such as Chevron and BP. Unsurprisingly, both companies have zealously objected to the company’s bankruptcy plan. While the oil companies attempt to dodge responsibility for cleanup, the Interior Department, has been filing objections to Fieldwood’s plan to transfer leases to other companies and abandon wells, stating that its environmental obligations are “nondischargeable” and that leases cannot be sold or transferred without sign-off from the federal government. Fieldwood is one of more than 260 oil and gas companies that has filed for bankruptcy in the last six years. With low prices and suppressed demand for oil and gas over the last year, operators have struggled to stay afloat. Many have been turning to bankruptcy in an attempt to shed their debts, reorganize their assets, and, in some cases, offload their environmental obligations. Utilizing limitations and loopholes in bankruptcy law, these companies are employing a playbook perfected by coal companies to shed their environmental and labor liabilities.
U.S. Supreme Court backs refineries in biofuel waiver dispute -- The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday bolstered a bid by small oil refineries to win exemptions from a federal law requiring increasing levels of ethanol and other renewable fuels to be blended into their products, a major setback for biofuel producers. The 6-3 ruling overturned a lower court decision that had faulted the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for giving refineries in Wyoming, Utah and Oklahoma extensions on waivers from renewable fuel standard (RFS) requirements under a law called the Clean Air Act even though the companies' prior exemptions had expired. The case involved exemptions given to units of HollyFrontier and CVR Energy. In ruling in favor of the refineries, conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch, writing for the court, compared the extensions at issue in this case to those granted in everyday life, such as to a student who needs more time for a term paper even though the deadline had passed, or a contract whose terms had expired. "It is entirely natural - and consistent with ordinary usage - to seek an 'extension' of time even after some time lapse," Gorsuch said. In a dissent, conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett, joined by liberal justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, faulted the majority's interpretation of the word "extend." The "EPA cannot 'extend' an exemption that a refinery no longer has," Barrett wrote. President Joe Biden's administration has been considering ways to provide relief to U.S. oil refiners from biofuel blending mandates. The case reflected a long-running dispute between the oil and corn industries. The legal battle focused on changes made in 2005 and 2007 to the Clean Air Act to require biofuel quotas in U.S. gasoline and diesel products - intended to reduce dependence on foreign oil and support fossil fuel alternatives. Under program, refiners must blend billions of gallons of biofuels such as ethanol into their fuel or buy compliance credits, known as RINs, from those that do. U.S. renewable fuel credits fell on the news, trading at $1.55 cents each, down from $1.65 each on Thursday. U.S. gasoline and diesel futures plunged about 3% immediately following the news, but have since eased losses. States backing the refineries included Wyoming. Those backing biofuels included Iowa. Both sides cited economic threats to their rural economies posed by the litigation. HollyFrontier Corp said in a statement, "We are pleased that our longstanding arguments were today validated by the Supreme Court." HollyFrontier urged the EPA to "immediately take action to make the RFS a workable program for U.S. refiners and consumers." American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers President Chet Thompson said the renewable fuel standard "is hurting consumers and jeopardizing the viability of refineries across the country, as well as the jobs and communities they support." Iowa Renewable Fuels Association Executive Director Monte Shaw said his group is "extremely disappointed" with the ruling but noted that the lower court had faulted the EPA's decisions on other grounds as well. "We fully expect the Biden EPA ... to deny the vast majority of RFS exemption extension requests that are pending or that will be submitted in the future," Shaw said. Renewable fuel groups said that an increase in waivers during Republican former President Donald Trump's administration had undercut the demand for their products by billions of dollars.
EIA’s updated liquids pipeline database shows 19 projects moving toward completion in 2021 - So far in 2021, 2 petroleum liquids pipeline projects have been completed, and 17 more projects have been announced or are currently under construction, according to updated data in our Liquids Pipeline Projects Database. That total includes 12 crude oil projects, 6 hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs) projects, and 1 petroleum product project. Of the 19 projects, 10 projects are new pipelines, 7 projects are expansions or extensions of existing systems, and 2 projects are conversions of the commodity carried on the pipeline.In 2020, 24 petroleum liquids pipeline projects were completed. That total includes 11 crude oil projects, 12 HGL projects, and 1 petroleum product project. Of the 24 projects, 11 projects were new pipelines, 11 projects were expansions of existing systems, 1 project was a conversion of the commodity carried on the pipeline, and 1 project was a combination of new and existing pipelines.Our Liquids Pipeline Projects Database documents more than 250 current, future, and past liquids pipeline projects in the United States. These pipelines carry crude oil, HGLs, and petroleum products—which include gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refinery products. This database includes projects that date back to 2010. Our database contains project types, start dates, capacity, mileage, geographic information, and project status. We track expanded, reversed, converted, and new pipeline projects. Not all pipelines are independent projects. Some projects are connected to each other and carry the same liquid to its final destination. As a result, simply adding together the capacity of all projects would result in overestimating or double-counting the ability to deliver to customers. The Liquids Pipeline Projects Database complements our natural gas pipeline projects table. We update our Liquids Pipeline Projects Database based on the best available information from pipeline company websites, trade press reports, and government documents, such as U.S. Department of State permits for border crossings. We release updates to the database twice each year: in the late spring and the fall. The data reflect reported plans. They are not a forecast and do not reflect our assumptions on the likelihood or timing of project completion.
Army Corps decision could tack years onto Enbridge Line 5 tunnel timeline -Tack another delay onto the Line 5 tunnel construction timeline. Federal regulators this week announced they will thoroughly examine the potential environmental impacts of Enbridge Energy’s plan to encase the petroleum pipeline inside of a tunnel beneath the Straits of Mackinac, a review that could take years. The decision by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers all-but-guarantees something that had become increasingly evident over the past year: Enbridge Energy’s plan to begin building the tunnel this year and complete it by 2024 is not realistic. Instead, tunnel construction may not begin for years, if it happens at all.One study found that such federal reviews, known as environmental impact statements, take an average of nearly 3-and-a-half years to complete. They also require the Corps to closely study alternatives to the tunnel project.In an email to Bridge Michigan on Thursday, Enbridge spokesman Ryan Duffy said the company is “taking a look at the timeline” but has not yet identified a new timeline.In a statement Wednesday, Acting Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works Jamie Pinkham said the agency received thousands of public comments and tribal input on the controversial tunnel project, which is supported by Republican lawmakers but opposed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and many legislative Democrats as well as environmental groups.“I have concluded that an EIS is the most appropriate level of review because of the potential for impacts significantly affecting the quality of the human environment,” Pinkham said.The decision was met with disappointment from Canada-based Enbridge, and cheers from environmentalists who have long argued the company’s construction timeline was unrealistically aggressive.“Enbridge remains intensely focused on project permitting and the sustained and safe operation of Line 5 until the tunnel is completed,” a company statement said.Its opponents, meanwhile, said the Corps’ decision will bring needed scrutiny to a project whose environmental impacts, they argue, are too great to accept.
Canada: Line 5 lawsuit should pause until treaty talks with U.S. are complete ⋆ The Canadian government is asking again that the litigation between Michigan and Canadian oil company Enbridge pause as officials from both countries hold talks about the potential of a Line 5 shutdown. Michigan and Enbridge are currently awaiting a decision from a federal judge on which court — state or federal — will preside over the state’s lawsuit to enforce Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s Line 5 shutdown order. That order took effect on May 12, but Enbridge has refused to comply without the backing of a court order. Oil continues to flow through the 68-year-old pipelines under the Straits of Mackinac despite Whitmer’s continued warnings. On June 1, the government of Canada submitted a brief of amicus curiae on behalf of Enbridge. It argued that the court should take into account the 1977 Treaty between Canada and the United States, consider the treaty issues presented by a Line 5 shutdown and ultimately prevent the “premature” enforcement of Whitmer’s shutdown order. The 1977 Treaty, signed by former President Jimmy Carter, set forth agreements between the parties as related to transit pipelines that travel through both countries. On June 21, the Canadian government’s counsel submitted a filing to update the court on those treaty talks and again ask that the litigation be held in abeyance. State panel doesn’t have to consider climate change in Line 5 tunnel permit decision, judge rules “The international implications of the proposed shutdown have been raised by the Prime Minister of Canada with the President of the United States,” writes attorney Gordon Davies Giffin on behalf of the Canadian government. “They have also been the subject of discussions between the Foreign Minister of Canada and the United States Secretary of State, the Justice Minister of Canada and the United States Attorney General, the Natural Resources Minister of Canada and the United States Secretary of Energy as well as the Transport Minister of Canada and the United States Secretary of Transportation. “These discussions, along with interventions to the Department of State and the White House by the Ambassador of Canada have resulted in the establishment of a bi-lateral process in which representatives of the two countries are meeting biweekly to address the potential shutdown, including in the context of the 1977 Treaty,” Giffin continued. He noted that the state of Michigan previously argued against Canada’s request for abeyance. In its June 2 reply brief, the state said “there is no evidence that negotiations under the Treaty itself are in progress.”
PIPELINES: Biden backing of Maine oil ban fuels Line 5 battle -- Thursday, July 1, 2021 -- The Justice Department is defending a town's effort to block shipments of Canadian crude oil from its port in Maine, boosting confidence among supporters of an effort in Michigan to shut down Enbridge Inc.'s Line 5 pipeline along the U.S.-Canada border.
EIA estimates drilled but uncompleted wells for key oil and natural gas basins – EIA - We release an updated inventory of what we consider drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) each month in ourDrilling Productivity Report (DPR). We publish updates to DUC estimates by region in a publicly accessible spreadsheet. In May 2021, the most recent month available, we estimated that the United States has about 6,521 DUCs in seven major tight oil and shale natural gas basins, up from about 4,425 DUCs in 2013, the earliest year in the data series. Nearly 40% of DUCs (or 2,616 DUCs) are in the Permian Basin, located in western Texas and eastern New Mexico.We estimate that the U.S. DUC inventory peaked at 8,874 DUCs in June 2020. From June 2020 through May 2021, we estimate that DUCs declined by 27%, or by 2,353 DUCs. Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, exploration and production (E&P) companies have cut capital expenditures, deployed fewer rigs, and reduced oil and natural gas production in response to lower demand and lower prices. DUCs help operators produce oil and natural gas at a lower cost.We estimate DUCs by examining the difference between records of drilled wells and completed wells each month; the difference equals the net change in the DUC inventory, or well count. Our DUC inventory estimates depend on assumptions about the wells reported to FracFocus.We estimate that most DUC wells are completed and begin producing hydrocarbons within one year after they are drilled. However, the timeline for completing wells can vary based on a variety of factors, including the prices of crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas. E&P companies maintain DUC well inventories to ensure the well completion rate remains flexible. For instance, E&P companies coordinate the drilling and completion of wells to minimize operational delays. Generally, E&P companies maintain a DUC backlog that can sustain oil or natural gas production for several months so that they always have wells they can complete quickly. Because new oil and natural gas wells have decline rates that can be as high as 60%–70%, E&P operators need a constant supply of new wells that are ready to be completed to maintain steady production levels.
Officials: 2 killed in natural gas line explosion in Texas - Two people were killed and three injured in a natural gas pipeline explosion in Texas, officials said. The deadly blast happened around 4 p.m. Monday at an Atmos Energy facility in Collin County near Farmersville, about 35 miles (56 kilometers) northeast of Dallas. Collin County Sheriff Jim Skinner said the explosion appeared to be an accident but he invited the FBI to assist in the investigation. It was not immediately known what caused the blast. Those involved in the explosion were contractors for Atmos Energy, and the Collin County Sheriff's Office said Monday night the contractors were employees of Bobcat Contracting and Fesco Petroleum Engineering. Two of the injured were taken to a hospital. The workers were servicing a gas line when the explosion happened, Farmersville police Chief Mike Sullivan told WFAA-TV. The Princeton and Farmersville fire departments, Collin County EMS and multiple other local law enforcement agencies responded to the blast. 'œOur prayers are with those who were affected by the events in Farmersville, Texas, today,' Atmos Energy said in statement. 'œOut of respect for their privacy, we are not releasing any names or additional details at this stage,' the statement added.
Collin County explosion: What we know - Officials have released the identities of the two men killed Monday in a gas line explosion. Three others were injured in the explosion that happened in an unincorporated area of Collin County near Farmersville, officials said. The men were identified as 22-year-old Ethan Knight of Mesquite and 35-year-old Deric Tarver of El Campo. Princeton and Farmersville fire departments, Collin County EMS and multiple other local law enforcement agencies responded to the explosion, which was reported around 4 p.m. in the area of Farm to Market Road 2756 near Highway 78. According to the Farmersville police chief, the people involved in the explosion were contractors for Atmos Energy, not actual Atmos employees, who were servicing a gas line in the area when the explosion happened. The Collin County Sheriff's Office said Monday night the contractors were employees of Bobcat Contracting and Fesco Petroleum Engineering. Two of the people injured were taken to the hospital. Sheriff Jim Skinner said while the explosion appears to be an accident, he has invited the FBI to assist in the investigation. The National Transportation Safety Board is also investigating. It's unclear at this time what caused the explosion.
Study: EPA underestimated methane emissions from oil and gas development - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has underestimated methane emissions caused by oil and gas production by as much as 76 percent, according to research published Tuesday in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Researchers from Pennsylvania State University collected data in the mid-Atlantic, mid-South and central Midwest of the U.S. from 2017 to 2019, tracking the movement of carbon dioxide, methane and ethane within weather systems. They then studied ethane-to-methane ratios from oil and gas production basins and compared to them an EPA inventory of those emissions. The assessment found emissions at levels between 48 percent and 76 percent higher than the EPA's estimates. The researchers said they specifically analyzed ethane because it is only produced alongside certain methane emissions, whereas methane can be produced naturally and by landfills. Ethane also only lingers in the atmosphere for months at a time and offers a clearer picture of how recent the methane emissions occurred. In a statement to The Hill, the EPA said its greenhouse gas emissions inventory methods are continually updated based on stakeholder feedback. "Given the variability of practices and technologies across oil and gas systems and the occurrence of episodic events, it is possible that the EPA’s estimates do not include all methane emissions from abnormal events," an agency spokesperson said. "For many equipment types and activities, the EPA’s emission estimates include the full range of conditions, including 'super-emitters.' For other situations, where data are available, emissions estimates for abnormal events are calculated separately and included in the GHG Inventory," the spokesperson added. "The EPA continues to work through its stakeholder process to review new data from the EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) and research studies to assess how emissions estimates can be improved."
INTERIOR: Watchdog: Agencies use outdated systems to track oil and gas -- Monday, June 28, 2021 -- The Interior Department's use of outdated, aging data systems to track information like oil and gas permit approvals compromises its oversight responsibilities, according to a Government Accountability Office report released today.
Satellite images reveal where large amounts of methane are being released in Permian Basin –(videos) An international team of researchers has found a way to isolate individual methane contributors in the Permian Basin. In their paper published in the journal Science Advances, the group describes using satellite images to isolate sites that are releasing large amounts of methane into the atmosphere in the Permian Basin.The Permian Basin is a large sedimentary basin situated in the southwest United States. It includes parts of Texas and New Mexico, and has become a major source of shale oil and natural gas extraction. Prior research has shown that as part of shale oil and natural gas extraction, gases are released into the atmosphere. To prevent these releases, most extraction operations burn the gas as it is released. But, as the researchers with this new effort have found, these operations in the Permian Basin are missing a lot of themethane emissions, which are winding up in the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas. Prior research has suggested that as much as 20% of all methane emissions in the U.S. come from the Permian Basin.Prior efforts to measure and monitor gas emissions at individual shale oil and natural gas extraction and processing sites have involved the use of ground-based sensors. But these efforts have met with limited success due to the size of the areas being studied. In this new effort, the researchers turned to satellites equipped with hyperspectral capabilities, which image bands of the electromagnetic spectrum. Analysis of imagery from these sources allowed for measuring the amounts of gases emitted from relatively small sources on the ground.Compilation of infrared video footage for several large methane emission sources in the US Permian Basin. In some cases, simultaneous visible light footage is also shown. Credit: PermianMAP, Environmental Defense Fund, 2021 In studying the imagery from China's Gaofen-5 and ZY1 satellites and Italy's PRISMA mission, the researchers were able to isolate individual sources of methane emissions in the Permian Basin. They pinpointed 37 methane plumes from individual sources that had emissions higher than 500 kilograms per hour. They estimate that the sources they found contribute between 31 and 53% of all emissions in the parts of the basin they studied. They also suggest that current methods to prevent methane emissions in the shale oil and natural gas extraction industry in the Permian Basin are not sufficient—the actual emissions represent a major contributor to global warming.
Big Oil and Gas Kept a Dirty Secret for Decades. Now They May Pay the Price -After a century of wielding extraordinary economic and political power, America's petroleum giants face a reckoning for driving the greatest existential threat of our lifetimes.An unprecedented wave of lawsuits, filed by cities and states across the US, aim to hold the oil and gas industry to account for the environmental devastation caused by fossil fuels – and covering up what they knew along the way.Coastal cities struggling to keep rising sea levels at bay, midwestern states watching "mega-rains" destroy crops and homes, and fishing communities losing catches to warming waters, are now demanding the oil conglomerates pay damages and take urgent action to reduce further harm from burning fossil fuels.But, even more strikingly, the nearly two dozen lawsuits are underpinned by accusations that the industry severely aggravated the environmental crisis with a decades-long campaign of lies and deceit to suppress warnings from their own scientists about the impact of fossil fuels on the climate and dupe the American public. The environmentalist Bill McKibben once characterized the fossil fuel industry's behavior as "the most consequential cover-up in US history". And now for the first time in decades, the lawsuits chart a path toward public accountability that climate activists say has the potential to rival big tobacco's downfall after it concealed the real dangers of smoking..
How Last Century’s Oil Wells Are Messing With Texas -Ashley Watt is nothing if not a friend of fracking. She’s invested in mines that supply the sand frackers blast into the ground. Her family owns a ranch larger than Manhattan that’s home to hundreds of oil and natural gas wells. Her Twitter handle is “Frac Sand Baroness.”That’s what made it all the more jarring almost three weeks ago when Watt began publicly railing against one particular oil driller for leaks on her land. Noxious wastewater from oil drilling began leaching across the ground, endangering people and livestock. By her count, the pollution has killed four cows and two calves so far. Chevron Corp., which drilled the 1960s-era wells that polluted Watt’s land, brought in earth-moving equipment and a well-control crew, even though it had sold most of its interests there years ago. It took 10 days to halt the first leak. Given the hundreds of other aging wells dotting the land, it’s done little to put Watt’s mind at ease.“I am not anti-oil industry,” Watt said in an interview. “That is the economy here. It’s a good business.” At the same the same time, she said, “We have to be responsible stewards. If we can’t do it right here in the Permian Basin, then how can we do it right anywhere? Nobody should let us in if we’re going to act like this.”And just like that, Watt — whether she liked it or not — became an ally to scores of environmentalists and activists who’ve been warning for years that America is on the verge of an environmental disaster. Long before the advent of shale drilling techniques that fueled the greatest move toward energy independence the nation’s ever seen, conventional oil explorers left the country pierced with millions of defunct wells that are aging by the day and increasingly springing leaks.“There’s this enormous backlog” of abandoned wells, “and we don’t have financing in place to clean them up,” said Daniel Raimi, a fellow at the non-profit research group Resources for the Future. “We’ve seen very clearly that existing regulatory structures, particularly at the state level, have not properly incentivized companies to clean up their infrastructure.”
How California’s Drought Puts Pressure On Natural Gas Prices In Texas -A drought in California is stressing the power grid, forcing that state to use more natural gas. So, is this demand driving up natural gas prices in Texas?Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData told Texas Standard that the drought means hydropower generation in California is down significantly. Hoover Dam, which supplies hydroelectric power for California, Nevada and Arizona, has cut capacity by one-quarter, for example.“California is relying more on other sources, on fossil fuels, as summer heats up,” Smith said.The state imports more than 90% of the natural gas it uses from out of state, and the need to bring in more has affected prices.“The southwest gas is ultimately coming from Texas,” Smith said.Natural gas prices behave somewhat like oil prices, he says.“After all, a lot of natural gas production in Texas is from what’s known as ‘associated gas,’ which is essentially natural gas which is coming out of the ground as a byproduct as producers go after the more valuable product of crude oil,” he said.Even though commodity prices are up, Smith says production is down right now as drillers cut back on costs.
Far From Texas, Huge Gas Bills Stoke Anger After February Freeze – WSJ - An angry backlash is building across the middle of the U.S. as states step in to help their constituents pay billions of dollars in natural-gas bills racked up during February’s freeze.While most escaped the blackouts that occurred in Texas, states from Minnesota to Kansas are having to help local utilities, businesses and homeowners cover February bills after natural-gas prices surged from around $2 per million British thermal units to as much as $1,200 in parts of the country.Lawmakers and regulators in Minnesota, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas and Kansas have called for investigations into market manipulation and are exploring regulatory changes. Republican and Democratic leaders in some of the states said it may be time to reconsider whether interstate gas markets, deregulated since the 1980s, need greater federal oversight to prevent a similar economic calamity from happening again. The February storm caused wellheads and pipelines to freeze in Texas and other gas-producing states, crimping supplies just as millions of customers cranked up the heat. The effects were felt far from the Lone Star State, leaving many homeowners and businesses with monthly bills hundreds or even thousands of times as large as usual.In Oklahoma City, the Villagio senior living center received a February gas bill of $44,527—about 50 times more than the month before—from its gas marketer, Constellation, a subsidiary of Chicago-based Exelon Corp. EXC -0.69%“It was shocking, and it has an impact on residents, on things we were going to do,” said Tyler Gable, a representative of the assisted-living facility’s owner, Blackwood, which is contesting the bill. Oklahoma regulators said the weeklong freeze generated as much as $5 billion in gas bills there. That has left some lawmakers in the reliably Republican state to call for further regulation of natural-gas producers, one of the most influential industries in Oklahoma. “I cannot for the life of me understand how we saw it go from $2 to $1,200 and back down to $2 in the span of the week; that’s not real,” said Garry Mize, a Republican who is chairman of the utilities committee in Oklahoma’s House of Representatives. referring to natural-gas prices. “It’s hard on a political level because you’d like to believe that free markets work all the time.” Mr. Mize helped draft legislation signed into law in April that will allow utility companies to stretch the impact to customers over 10 years by securitizing rate payments and selling them as bonds. Without the measure, he estimated that ratepayers who normally pay an average bill of $100 a month would have seen bills for February reach around $1,900.
Wastewater Problem Could Cap U.S. Shale Growth - Hydraulic fracturing, the technology that made the United States the world’s top oil and gas producer, has earned a really bad rap. Much of this ill reputation has had to do with increased seismic activity in shale oil and gas regions. But research cited by the U.S. Geological Survey showed a few years ago that it’s not fracking itself that is the problem. The problem is the disposal of wastewater, and it is not going away.Earlier this month, Rystad Energy warned in a report that the number of seismic events in key oil-producing regions has been on the rise. Since 2017, quakes of a magnitude above 2.0 had quadrupled. Seismic activity will increase further this year, Rystad analysts added, if the U.S. oil and gas industry continued to produce hydrocarbons the same way.The amount of water that is used in the drilling and fracking of shale oil and gas wells varies widely. It can be anywhere from 1.5 million gallons to 16 million gallons, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. But that was several years ago. Since then, water use has only grown as fracking activity has increased. After drilling and fracking, the used water—typically called produced water—is disposed of in underground injection wells. The more water is injected, the more likely seismic events become because, put simply, millions upon millions of gallons of water injected into rock formation change the pressures in this formation, triggering increased seismic activity.Now, the USGS makes a point of noting that not all wastewater injection wells will lead to an increased likelihood of quakes. Still, the data cited by Rystad Energy indicates that even if some wells lead to more quakes, it’s bad enough. Since the start of this year, the consultancy noted, there have been 11 earthquakes in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico with a magnitude of above 3.5. This compares with 14 such events for the whole of 2020 and six in 2018 and 2019 each. Now, someone with a grim sense of humor might say quakes are a good indication of the recovery of oil and gas drilling after the worst of the pandemic, but the 2020 number is worrying because it was recorded in a year when drilling activity was severely depressed because of the pandemic. Indeed, the Rystad data showed that last year oil and gas drillers disposed of 11.3 billion barrels of produced water, down from 12.4 billion barrels a year earlier and 11.5 billion barrels in 2018. Yet seismic activity increased even further last year.Drilling activity is also increasing now that oil prices have recovered faster than many expected. The increase is still cautious as upstream companies still remember the devastating blow their industry suffered last year. Yet demand is growing. This could lead to not only higher prices still but more drilling and, consequently, more wastewater disposal. Alternatively, it could lead to more water recycling and reuse.
House passes resolution that would repeal a Trump-era EPA rule on methane emissions - The House voted Friday to repeal a Trump-era rule that rolled back regulations of methane emissions from oil and gas industries, sending a resolution to President Joe Biden's desk for his signature as his administration looks to combat climate change. The final vote was 229-191. All Democrats supported the resolution, and 12 Republicans broke ranks and supported it as well. The resolution would restore an Obama-era rule that controlled leaks of methane from oil and gas operations. In September, the Trump administration rolled back the 2016 regulation limiting methane leaks by requiring companies to monitor and repair new natural gas equipment. The Senate passed the resolution at the end of April under the Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to roll back regulations imposed by the executive branch. The CRA allows Congress to rescind within 60 legislative days a regulation put in place by an administration without having to clear the 60-vote threshold in the Senate that is necessary for most legislation. The Republicans who voted for the resolution were Reps. Fred Upton of Michigan, Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, Peter Meijer of Michigan, Pete Sessions of Texas, Brian Mast of Florida, Andrew Garbarino of New York, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, John Katko of New York, Young Kim of California, Nancy Mace of South Carolina, Tom Reed of New York and Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida. A spokesperson for the Environmental Protection Agency called Friday's vote "an important step" for protecting public health and combating the climate crisis. "Today's Congressional action is an important step toward restoring crucial measures to protect public health from methane and other harmful air pollutants from new and modified oil and gas facilities, a critical move in tackling the climate crisis and protecting our communities," the EPA spokesperson said in a statement.
U.S. crude inventories depleting at record pace on surging oil demand --Crude inventories in the U.S. are falling at the fastest rate in decades as demand continues to rebound, prompting a rally in the oil futures market. Over the last four weeks total stockpiles, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have fallen at a rate of 1.15 million barrels a day, marking the largest four-week decline on a rolling basis in Energy Information Administration Data going back to 1982. Meanwhile, Nymex calendar spreads rallied Wednesday, with the September West Texas Intermediate futures contract rising to $1 a barrel premium over October for the second time this month, pointing to expectations for ongoing supply tightness through the summer. The record rate of drawdowns underscore the strength of the U.S. oil demand recovery just ahead of a critical meeting between OPEC and its allies on Thursday to debate a potential output increase. Americans are taking to the roads and skies at increasing numbers as the country emerges from months of lockdowns. To meet demand, oil refiners boosted crude processing to levels only seen before the pandemic. At the same time U.S. drillers have been slow to respond to the oil prices, which are up more than 50% so far this year. Domestic crude production is holding at roughly 15% below peak levels seen early last year. Further supporting the so-called timespreads are stockpile levels in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures. Inventories in the hub are at the lowest levels in over a year. Analysts are estimating and traders are betting that supplies will drop to multi-year lows by the end of the summer. Prior to this month, the spread between the second month and third month WTI contracts hadn’t exceeded $1 a barrel since 2018. Overseas interest in American crude has also been climbing despite a bumpy recovery from the health crisis in Asia and Europe. Exports of U.S. crude remain strong even as rallies in WTI have narrowed its spread to less than $2 a barrel relative to global benchmark Brent. The global supply situation looks set to remain tight as OPEC and its allies have yet to come to a consensus on how much shut-in oil to return to the market at a time when there is much demand uncertainty. That has delayed preliminary talks between ministers by a day to allow more time for a compromise before Thursday’s discussion. The International Energy Agency has warned of supply deficits in the second half of this year unless the group acts fast to add more crude.
Fish, propane, cash: Not everyone loves Enbridge generosity in the Straits — Barbara Brown was visiting a friend when she heard about Enbridge’s latest act of generosity in town. “She asked me if I had gotten my whitefish,” Brown said, and showed a bag of “beautiful, big fillets” bearing the company’s logo. The Canadian petroleum giant, whose Line 5 pipeline crosses the Straits of Mackinac just outside town, had co-sponsored a giveaway at the local community action agency, working with St. Ignace-based Massey Fish Company to distribute 2,000 pounds of whitefish to 400 seniors. The friend, like Brown, is not a fan of Enbridge. But for the friend, about 40 bucks worth of free whitefish was reason enough to set differences aside, if only momentarily. Brown felt differently, viewing the whitefish as an effort to woo residents to Enbridge's side. “I thought it was an aggressive influence campaign,” said Brown, a former state judge who serves on the board of For Love of Water, a northern Michigan nonprofit that opposes Line 5. Since the company’s oil pipelines became a hot-button political topic in Michigan, Enbridge has steadily ramped up its physical and philanthropic presence in the Straits, hiring staff, installing surveillance infrastructure, buying land and donating to all manner of local causes. But as the company continues to defy a state order to shut down Line 5, its opponents view the largesse as part of an effort to curry favor with local residents and public officials who could influence debates about the pipeline’s fate. Others welcome the donations as further evidence that Enbridge cares about the community — stewardship that they say is also evident in the company’s efforts to better monitor its 68-year-old pipeline after a series of anchor strikes since 2018 heightened concern about a potential oil spill. The company’s growing local presence begs a question: Where does one draw the line between being a good corporate citizen and political lobbying?
Minnesota Sheriff Blockades Anti-Pipeline Camp -A Minnesota sheriff’s office blocked access Monday morning to one of the protest encampments set up to resist the Enbridge Line 3 tar sands pipeline. In a notice delivered at 6 a.m. to pipeline opponents, who own the property, the Hubbard County Sheriff’s Office stated that it would no longer be allowing vehicular traffic on the small strip of county-owned land between the driveway and the road. Sheriff’s deputies arrived with trucks carrying building materials, a witness said. Join Our Newsletter Original reporting.Fearless journalism.Delivered to you. “I was handed a notice that states the sheriff will be installing a physical barricade across the driveway to our private property,” said Tara Houska, an Anishinaabe co-founder of the anti-pipeline Giniw Collective, which organized the camp. “He’s saying that we have no right of access to our private property by vehicle.” The pipeline opponents, also known as water protectors, plan to take legal action. “This is quite simply nothing less than an overt political blockade,” said Mara VerheydenHilliard, an attorney for the pipeline opponents and director of the Partnership for Civil Justice Fund’s Center for Protest Law and Litigation. “This is an outrageous and unlawful effort to blockade people who are engaged in protected First Amendment activity and to punish them for their opposition to the Enbridge pipeline, where Enbridge is serving as the paymaster for Hubbard County sheriff.” Verheyden-Hilliard was referring to an Enbridge-funded escrow account set up by the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to reimburse public safety agencies for activity related to Line 3. So far Enbridge has reimbursed Hubbard County $2,660 for riot helmet face shields and chest protectors as well as equipment related to removing pipeline opponents locked to construction infrastructure. The Hubbard County Sheriff’s Office did not respond to a request for comment
Pipeline workers arrested in northern Minn. sex trafficking sting - – Two Enbridge Line 3 pipeline workers from Bemidji were among six men arrested in a northern Minnesota sex trafficking sting this weekend.Enbridge said Monday both were immediately fired."Enbridge and our contractors have zero tolerance for illegal and exploitative actions," the company said in a statement. "That is why we are joining with our contractors and unions to denounce the ... actions of those who participate in sex trafficking."The sting took place on Friday and Saturday in Beltrami County, authorities said."During the operation, suspects responded to an ad on a sex advertisement website," according to a Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension (BCA) news release. "Investigators arrested the suspects as they arrived at an arranged meeting place for a commercial sex crime." The BCA's Human Trafficking Investigators Task Force worked with the Tribes United Against Sex Trafficking Task Force, the Beltrami County Sheriff's Office and the Bemidji Police Department.
Nearly 800 Line 3 pipeline workers tested positive for COVID-19 - A total of 788 workers building Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline through the US state of Minnesota have tested positive for COVID-19, according to data obtained by Al Jazeera from the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH). The project, the largest in Enbridge history, would replace a 1,700-kilometre (1,000-mile) oil pipeline that runs from Edmonton, Alberta in Canada to Superior, Wisconsin in the US. Construction is on track to continue until the end of the year, amid protests andIndigenous resistance to the project.In late November, amid the worst wave of the pandemic in the state, thousands of out-of-state workers arrived to build the pipeline through rural communities in northern Minnesota.The data shows that shortly after construction began on December 1, 2020, a wave of pipeline workers contracted the virus. The winter surge in cases has subsided, but Line 3 workers are still contracting COVID, as the highly contagious Delta variant is now taking hold in the US.Three workers were hospitalized, and none have died, according to MDH.Healthcare workers tell Al Jazeera they believe the bulk of cases could have been prevented.In November, more than 200 healthcare workers and Indigenous tribal leaders petitioned Governor Tim Walz to issue an emergency stay on construction until after vaccines were widely available. But Walz allowed the project to go ahead.
Minnesota's OK for Enbridge to temporarily move 5B gallons of water sows tension - Some environmentalists and Ojibwe tribes are angered at the state's decision to allow Enbridge to move 5 billion gallons of water as it builds a replacement for its Line 3 pipeline — up from 510 million in the company's original permit.The water involved is in shallow aquifers, and it is temporarily being moved so that it doesn't drain into the pipeline's trench during construction.It's pumped from wells 10 to 15 feet deep and moved nearby to seep back into the soil to restore groundwater balance.Earlier this month, the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) approved Enbridge's request to move 10 times as much water as originally planned, amending a permit it originally granted in November. The company started construction late last year, and the 340-mile oil pipeline is now more than 60% built.White Earth and Red Lake — the state's two largest Ojibwe bands — say they weren't adequately consulted about the DNR's decision.And critics say the sheer volume of water transferred could endanger the ecosystem near the pipeline, including wild rice beds, and even more so during the current drought."The surface water and shallow groundwater is more sensitive to drying out in these conditions," said Christine Dolph, a research scientist at the University of Minnesota's ecology department. "The huge increase in volume is really concerning, and it is unclear why [Enbridge] would have been off by so much. It indicates they don't understand the system they are working in."Enbridge requested the increase in "construction dewatering" early this year, saying winter conditions were much wetter than expected. Also, the company said at the time that it was switching from sump pumps to move water to "well point" water extraction.The latter, which state agencies recommended to Enbridge, decreases turbidity — a good thing — but requires the transfer of more water.In its amended permit issued June 4, the DNR concluded that Enbridge's increase in dewatering was necessary for the safety of workers in the pipeline's trench."Our evaluation of nearby wetlands is [also] that the temporary dewatering of trenches is not expected to have any significant impact on nearby wetlands or other surface waters, even in drought conditions," the DNR said in an e-mail to the Star Tribune."The current drought conditions may actually reduce the need for dewatering in some areas because less water may be seeping into trenches in drought-affected areas," the agency said.Enbridge, in a statement to the Star Tribune, said it expects soggy conditions to remain, giving no indication it would reduce dewatering.
Bitcoin fracking turns waste gas to gold in Montana | Energy News Network --Houston-based Kraken Oil & Gas has dug in here for the oil released by hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, the technology that, along with horizontal drilling, spurred the Bakken oil boom in North Dakota and this stretch of eastern Montana in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Even as the boom has cooled from its peak over the last decade, production has continued on pads like this one, where the liquid oil pulled from the earth is piped away, headed toward refineries that convert it to gasoline or plastic. On sites without a pipeline connection, producers truck liquid oil away in tanks instead.Bakken oil, though, commonly comes to the surface with a not-necessarily-welcome companion: natural gas that is both harder to transport from remote well pads and less profitable to sell. In part because one component of that gas, methane, is a potent greenhouse gas — an estimated 25 times as effective at trapping planet-warming heat in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide — companies like Kraken routinely burn off unwanted waste gas in well pad flares, converting as much of the methane as they can to the comparatively benign CO2.The inherent wastefulness of flaring, as well as its climate implications, have attracted the attention of government regulators and environmentalists. North Dakota, for example, has had flaring reduction targets as far back as 2014 in an effort to encourage the oil industry to invest in the infrastructure it needs to capture byproduct gas and do something useful with it.More recently, as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have emerged as major investment options, the cheap energy going up in smoke on well pads has also caught the attention of tech-savvy entrepreneurs.Unlike traditional currencies like the American dollar, which are regulated by central banks, Bitcoin and its peers are managed by digital exchanges that use decentralized databases and cryptography to keep track of ownership. New units of Bitcoin are created by digital mining, essentially performing computational gymnastics to unlock new bitcoins. Bitcoin mining, however, has become an increasingly difficult endeavor as the digital currency’s popularity has grown, requiring special-purpose hardware and tremendous amounts of electricity to power it. That power consumption has, in turn, seen the cryptocurrency industry criticized for its own impact on the climate. A Bitcoin mine operating out of an old mill building near Missoula, for example, attracted criticism after county officials said it was using as much power as a third of the households in the county. Additionally, researchers at the University of Cambridge estimate that Bitcoin currently consumes nearly 94 terawatt-hours of power a year globally, more than the combined consumption of the 108 million people who live in the Philippines.
The Keystone XL Pipeline Is Dead, but TC Energy Still Owns Hundreds of Miles of Rights of Way - When Richard Johnson heard that the Keystone XL pipeline had been canceled earlier this month, he felt a surge of relief. Johnson’s ranch lies directly on the pipeline’s planned route through the sandy plains of eastern Nebraska, and he had been tangling in court with the developer ever since the corporation used eminent domain to condemn a strip of his property in 2019.But relief quickly gave way to confusion and uncertainty when he learned that the condemnation would not necessarily be reversed, even if the pipeline is never built.As it prepared to construct Keystone XL, the Canada-based TC Energy secured hundreds of easements across farms and ranches up and down the 1,210 mile route through the Great Plains. For those landowners like Johnson who refused to sign easements, the company generally condemned the land through eminent domain proceedings. But now, even though it has canceled the project, TC Energy can retain the easements it secured indefinitely and use them for another purpose, or even sell them to other companies.“We’re still not sure where we’re at,” Johnson said. “If they secure an easement, they could sell it or assign it. To what it could be used for, I’m not real sure. But it’s that unknown that concerns me.” Even though the Keystone XL pipeline is dead, the more than decade-long fight over the controversial project is not. Pipeline opponents said the case highlights an emerging problem as the nation pivots away from fossil fuels. In Nebraska and many other states, they said, there are no laws or regulations that require pipeline developers to return easements to landowners if their projects are canceled or rejected, or after older pipelines are retired.“This has always been one of the concerns right from the beginning of fighting the pipeline,” said Jane Kleeb, founding director of Bold Nebraska, an advocacy group that helped lead opposition to Keystone XL. Kleeb worries that the route could now be used for a different pipeline. Even if the route is not used, she said, the lingering easements could hang over landowners, preventing them from developing parts of their property, diminishing its value and complicating future sales or transfers.“Those landowners, every single day, have this looming over them,” Kleeb said. “That tomorrow, a company could sell those easements to China, to Russia, to whoever, and they would have no say over that.”
SoCal spot gas prices soar as California ramps up thermal generation to keep cool | S&P Global Platts - Spot gas prices in Southern California climbed above $7/MMBtu in June 29 trading as the region turned to gas-fired generation to cope with an ongoing heat wave while power imports dropped. Cash SoCal city-gate gained 52 cents to reach $7.07/MMBtu in June 29 trading for next-day flows, according to preliminary settlement data. Spot gas price locations that represent entry points for gas flowing toward the SoCalGas system saw similar movement: SoCal Gas spiked $1.63 at $6.97/MMBtu. Thermal power demand in the California Independent System Operator footprint has exploded over the last several days since the West Coast heat wave began in earnest. CAISO data showed that thermal power generation increased 58% to 331 GWh on June 28, up from 210 GWh on June 26. While thermal power, the category used by the California system operator, include both gas- and coal-fired generation, there is only one remaining coal-fired power facility in California and the term largely refers to gas-fired generation. Lower power imports Even as California's total power demand rose, power imports into California dropped 36% to 85 GWh on June 28 from 133 GWh on June 26. Month-to-date daily power imports have averaged 125 GWh/d. The geographically expansive nature of the heat wave has meant that the Pacific Northwest's power and gas demand increased at the same time as Southern California. Portland and Seattle saw record-breaking temperatures over three consecutive days, beginning June 26 and peaking June 28 at 116 Fahrenheit and 108 F, respectively, according to the US National Weather Service. The "historic" and "unprecedented" heat wave, the US National Weather Service said June 29, resulted in excessive heat warnings, watches and advisories throughout most of the Northwest, Great Basin and California.
Nearly 400 gallons of oil spilled near Discovery Bay Yacht Harbor — The Coast Guard, California Department of Fish and Wildlife and Contra Costa County Fire Department responded to a diesel spill at Discovery Bay, near Stockton, on Monday morning. The Coast Guard Sector San Francisco watchstanders received notification around 10 a.m. from the National Response Center that approximately 400 gallons of gasoline spilled near the Discovery Bay Yacht Harbor. According to the Coast Guard, the leak came from a fuel line in the marina, and the fuel line was shut off after hundreds of gallons spilled. The Discovery Bay Yacht Harbor crew used oil absorbent tools for the area affected by the spill. The Coast Guard said it is currently investigating the cause of the spill. University of California Davis, Oiled Wildlife Care Network responded as well to care for the two Canada geese exposed to the oil spill. The Coast Guard said the geese were recovered and taken to a rehabilitation facility. The Oiled Wildlife Care Network asks that anyone with information regarding more wildlife affected by this oil exposure contact the network at 1-800-823-6926. No people were reported to be harmed by the oil spill.
Container vessel detained over oil spill -Container vessel detained over oil spill Container ship CSS Wind has been detained pending the payment of costs incurred for the cleanup of an oil spill from one of its containers on Wednesday. An estimated 2,000 litres of heavy crude oil had flowed into the sea at Gordon Cay. The ship should have left the Port of Kingston on Friday but has been prevented from doing so. Director of the Environmental Management and Conservation Division at National Environment and Planning Agency, Anthony McKenzie, told The Gleaner on Sunday that the agency took out an enforcement order against the ship and its local agent Perez y Cia Jamaica, barring the vessel from leaving port until the full cleanup costs have been determined. “We haven't concluded on that yet, we will conclude earlier in the week. So the ship is not able to move at this time.” Captain Steven Spence of the Maritime Authority of Jamaica (MAJ) said the agency's investigation found that the hazardous liquid was stored in flexi bags, as against the conventional method of storage tankers, and that the bags fell victim to Jamaica's high tropical temperature. “I think that due to the high temperature there was some sort of explosion because I can see other containers bulging and there was a spill of about 2,000 litres of the liquid.” Spence further explained that instead of being placed in the cargo hold, the container was being transported on the ship's deck and expressed concern about the fact that there were at least 21 more flexi bags on board. He said the bags would not be allowed to continue the journey in this way. “I understand that the cleanup went very well but there are still more containers on board the vessel and those containers need to be discharged. They have to be discharged because it wouldn't be safe for the vessel to travel because there are other containers which are bulging,” said Spence. The incident reportedly occurred while crew members were conducting what should have been routine bunkering operations, which involves either taking on or discharging fuel, and that during the exercise, the liquid coated the starboard hull, plating it and entered the sea. The ship, which has a gross tonnage capacity of 9,978, was also served with a detention order by the MAJ under the Port State Control Regime, which empowers it to hold the vessel in port pending the completion of investigations or if it has any doubts that the vessel may be a danger to navigation. “The decision to detain a vessel is not something that we do lightly because the cost to the shipping company can be very high and you have to make sure it is not a spurious detention. You have to really have good cause and in this case, they spilled hazardous material, heavy oil into the sea,” said Brady.
Panic grips residents as oil pipeline leaks in Lagos--Fear gripped the residents of Ijeododo Road, Igando, Alimosho, Local Government Area, Lagos, on Saturday, following a Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, popularly, called petrol, pipeline leakage in the area.The incident which occurred in the afternoon when some of the residents noticed the leakage at Igando enroute Ijeododo road and raised the alarm.Eyewitnesses account said as soon as the leakage was noticed after the heavy downpour, some of the residents on apparent fear started running helter-skelter.The Director-General, Lagos State Emergency Management Agency, LASEMA, Dr. Femi Oke-Osanyintolu, confirmed the development.Oke-Osanyintolu, at press time, 4pm, however, said the situation has been brought under control as emergency responders comprising of Lagos Fire and Rescue Services,LASEMA, and men of the Nigeria Police are at the sight of the leakage to prevent possible explosions in the area as people were advised to stay away from the area.“The agency has activated its response plan to the above. Members of the public are to exercise caution. All stakeholders are on ground to prevent a secondary incident,” Oke-Osanyintolu stated.
ONGC’s crude oil pipeline leaks into agricultural field near Mannargudi, paddy cultivation affected - Paddy seeds sown on a field at Melapanaiyur near Mannargudi were affected due to a leak in the crude oil pipeline of the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC). The oil spill was noticed by the land owner, Sivakumar on Wednesday morning when he arrived at the field to irrigate the kuruvai crop cultivated by him through the direct sowing method. Immediately, ONGC officials were informed about the development and they started necessary work to plug the leak. Meanwhile, Mr.Sivakumar told reporters that only a compensation of ₹10 lakh would help negate the loss he had suffered now and in view of the contamination of the soil due to the oil leak, since it would take years to revive soil health. He said he had spent several thousands of rupees in sowing the kuruvai paddy seeds on his eight acres of land at Melapanaiyur. Talking to reporters, the village panchayat president, Jeevanandam demanded that the oil pipelines laid through the agriculture fields in the village be removed since they were laid two decades ago. Further, removal of the oil pipeline network would alone justify the declaration of the Delta districts as a protected agriculture zone, he maintained.
Kaohsiung oil spill drifts farther south - An oil spill in waters near Kaohsiung has expanded farther south, with the spill covering 290km2 of ocean as of Saturday. The spill occurred after a pipe cracked while it was connected to a tanker delivering oil to CPC Corp, Taiwan’s (CPC) Dalin refinery in Kaohsiung on Tuesday, the state-owned utility said. The pipe was split by large waves, the utility said, apologizing and taking responsibility for the spill. The oil slick stretches from the waters off Siaoliouciou (小琉球) to Pingtung County’s Checheng Township (車城), residents said. They said they were worried that the oil would drift farther south and affect waters near Kenting National Park in Pingtung County’s Hengchun Township (恆春), which contains valuable coral ecosystems. Hengchun Township Mayor Chen Wen-hung (陳文弘) and local fishers, as well as the offices of Democratic Progressive Party legislators Chou Chun-mi (周春米) and Chuang Jui-hsiung (莊瑞雄), have urged the CPC to clear the spill quickly. While the oil slick is not as severe as one caused by the Greek cargo ship Amorgos in 2001, it has affected a wider sea area, Kenting National Park Administration deputy director Hsu Shu-kuo (許書國) said, adding that the oil might affect coral reefs near the coastline. After the spill is cleaned up, the agency plans to commission researchers to examine underwater ecosystems, he said. The spill contains liquefied petroleum gas, gasoline, kerosene, diesel and other fuels — 10 to 15 percent is lighter substances that can evaporate in a couple of days, the Ocean Conservation Administration said.
Why Did Iraq Pull The Plug On Its $2 Billion Oil Deal With China? --Just when it looked like Iraq was becoming a regional leader it decided to halt a $2 billion pre-paid oil supply deal with China's state-owned Zhenhua Oil Co. despite aims to strengthen ties with China. Iraq decided to end a deal with Zhenhua and sell its crude supply to other customers as oil prices continue to rise. The deal with the Chinese company, that was agreed upon earlier this year, would have seen 4 billion bpd of oil supplied each month. The oil was expected to be ‘destination free’, meaning Zhenhua could sell it to other companies.However, government officials in Iraq are making the country’s budget priority clear as the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) deputy director-general Ali al-Shatari stated, "For the time being we may say it is not applicable at this stage because of oil prices, which are high and we are in a better position and we are even generating additional profits in excess of what the Iraqi budget needs."The end of the Zhenhua deal follows recent announcements of big oil backing away from Iraq. Earlier this month, oil super-major, BP (-3.15%), said it wanted to change its operations in Iraq’s supergiant Rumaila oil field, to create a stand-alone company. U.S. super-major ExxonMobil (-2.55%) announced its intention to withdraw from Iraq’s West Qurna 1 oil field. And Royal Dutch Shell (-3.68%) got out long ago, ceasing operations in Iraq’s supergiant Majnoon oil field in 2017 and West Qurna 1 in 2018. There are several reasons for the Western supermajors’ exit from Iraq, including the movement away from traditional oil and gas towards low-carbon projects, persistent corruption in Iraq’s oil industry, and China’s dominance of Iraqi oil. However, we mustn’t overlook the fact that oil prices in Iraq have been steadily increasing since the beginning of the year, as the government promises higher export levels. SOMO’s crude was going for $65.842 a barrel in May, up 23.5% from January. And now Iraq is expecting as much as $80 a barrel, although no timeframe has been given for this confident prediction.
Oil prices could skyrocket if OPEC+ fails in pledge to deliver more supply - OPEC heads into Thursday's meeting with Russia and other allies with a better command of world oil prices than it has had in years, analysts said. OPEC+, the organization of oil-producing countries and its allies, is expected to consider adding between 500,000 and 1 million barrels per day, but analysts said there is some talk it may consider no increase. Reuters reported that an internal OPEC report points out that the market could fall back into an oil glut after the group reverses its 6 million barrels a day of production cuts by April 2022. The report gave a boost to oil prices Wednesday. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, were trading just over $75 a barrel Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August were just under $74 a barrel, around their highest level since the fall of 2018. Oil prices rose Wednesday on a report of lower U.S. inventories. "This is their most important meeting in over year. They were staring down a grave situation with negative pricing last year, and they came together," Again Capital partner John Kilduff said. "The plan has been to return 500,000 barrels a month, and I think they'll stick to that. It's working for them because prices keep going higher and higher." OPEC is expected to consider extending its current production accord beyond the existing April 2022 end date, and analysts widely expect it to return 500,000 barrels to the market in August. "To me, the interesting story is if they roll over current cuts, how high do [prices] go. It's being discussed in terms of the potential options," RBC head of global commodities strategy Helima Croft said. She said the market has already priced in 500,000 barrels a day of additional production, and if it was higher than expected, prices would fall slightly. Croft said OPEC+ has become more flexible since Covid, and it can quickly adjust when it sees how big factors will affect the market. For instance, the U.S. and Iran have been discussing a new nuclear accord. If that happens, Iran could return at least 1 million barrels a day to the market. The timing of that is unclear, and that oil would have to be absorbed alongside OPEC's current production later this year if a deal is struck. "OPEC used to move like a battle ship. We had these biannual meetings. It was so hard to convene OPEC" during Covid, Croft said. She noted that OPEC operates now more like the U.S. Federal Reserve, with regular policy-setting meetings. "It means they really have directional control of the market," she said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia initiated monthly meetings this year, with the oil market in a state of flux as demand returns. OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said Tuesday that OPEC expects demand to rise by 6 million barrels per day this year, with 5 million of that coming back in the second half of the year. "Now with the monthly meeting structure, they're more like a speedboat as opposed to a battleship. If the Delta variant is really demand-destructive in key geographies, they can reverse course," Croft said. "To me, this monthly meeting structure has given them flexibility to adjust quickly. And for market participants, everybody has to tune in. They are the story. ... This is how things have changed from 2015 when they were written off as irrelevant." Big changes in the market also changed OPEC, which had to cut production sharply last year as demand cratered and oil prices collapsed. Of less concern has been pressure from U.S. shale producers, who had previously moved aggressively to add new wells every time prices rose.
Oil Falls 2% on Rising COVID-19 Cases, Ahead of OPEC+ Talks -(Reuters) -Oil prices fell 2% to a one-week low on Monday after hitting their highest since 2018 earlier in the session, as a spike in COVID-19 cases in Asia and Europe put a brake on the rally before this week's OPEC+ meeting. Brent futures fell $1.50, or 2.0%, to settle at $74.68 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.14, or 1.5%, to settle at $72.91. Those declines pushed both contracts out of overbought territory and were their lowest closes since June 18. Earlier in the volatile session, both benchmarks rose to their highest levels since October 2018. "The forecast for oil demand recovery over the summer may be a bit overestimated, and traders are facing a reality check this week as the (COVID-19) Delta variant reached Europe and as an infections surge in Southeast Asia and Australia is bringing back lockdowns," said Louise Dickson, oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy. Indonesia is battling record-high cases, Malaysia is set to extend a lockdown and Thailand has announced new restrictions. Australia also reported on Sunday one of the highest numbers of locally acquired coronavirus cases this year, triggering lockdowns in some cities. All eyes this week will be on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, to see what happens at their meeting on Thursday. OPEC+ has increased supply by 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from May to July after cutting supplies during the pandemic, and could decide to add more barrels in August after crude prices last week rose for a fifth week in a row. OPEC's forecasts point to an oil supply deficit in August and the rest of 2021 as economies recover from the pandemic, suggesting OPEC+ has room to raise output. Analysts at Australian bank ANZ and Dutch bank ING said they expect OPEC+ to increase output by about 500,000 bpd in August.
Oil Steadies as OPEC Fuels Demand Hopes Amid New COVID-19 Worries (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied on Tuesday as broad hopes for a demand recovery persisted, fueled by comments from OPEC's secretary general, slightly overshadowing travel curbs due to new outbreaks of the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus. Brent crude futures settled up 8 cents, or 0.1%, at$74.76 a barrel, having slumped by 2% on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled up 7 cents, or 0.1%, at $72.98 a barrel, after a 1.5% retreat on Monday. Demand in 2021 was expected to grow by 6 million barrels per day (bpd), with 5 million bpd of that in the second half, OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo told Tuesday's meeting of the Joint Technical Committee of OPEC+, an alliance made up of OPEC states, Russia and their allies. "The current 'wild card' factor is the 'Delta Variant' of the pandemic that is resulting in rising cases and renewed restrictions in many regions," he said in a speech, a copy of which was seen by Reuters. The producer group is expected to gradually ramp up production in response to demand. "Barkindo's comments suggest that OPEC is not going to raise production quickly enough to keep up with demand," OPEC's demand forecasts show that in the fourth quarter global oil supply will fall short of demand by 2.2 million bpd, giving the producers some room to agree to add output. The market expects the rollout of vaccination programmes to brighten the demand outlook, even as the new variant rises, analysts said. "The narrative of the past few months has not changed: the war against the virus is being gradually won, the global economy and oil demand are recovering,"
Crude oil futures higher on bullish API crude draw, market awaits OPEC+ meeting -- Crude oil futures rose during the mid-morning trade in Asia June 30, as data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a large draw in US crude inventories, and as the market eagerly awaited the July 1 OPEC+ meeting. At 11:13 am Singapore time (0311 GMT), the ICE August Brent futures contract was up 43 cents/b (0.58%) from the previous close at $75.19/b while the NYMEX August light sweet crude contract was up 49 cents/b (0.67%) at $72.98/b. The data released by the American Petroleum Institute led to some bullishness in the market, as it showed a draw of 8.15 million barrels in the US crude inventories for the week ended June 25. The data was less positive with regards to downstream products inventories, showing gasoline and distillate inventories rising by 2.42 million barrels and 428,000 barrels, respectively. The market, however, was not swayed by the product builds, as they could be attributed to rising refinery utilization, which S&P Global Platts Analytics expects to have averaged 16.35 million b/d in the week ended June 25, up from an EIA-reported 16.11 million b/d during the week prior. The market remains optimistic about US products demand, and especially gasoline demand, with Apple Mobility data showing the US driving activity staying near record levels at 162% of the January 2020 baseline in the week ended June 25. The market will now be awaiting more comprehensive data from the Energy Information Administration, due to be released later June 30, for more pricing cues. Meanwhile, the market has its eyes set on the July 1 OPEC+ meeting, after the July 29 Joint Technical Committee provided little definite guidance into the producer group's production plans for August. Despite calls for higher production, analysts generally expect the coalition to raise production moderately by 500,000 b/d in August, especially as the resurgence in COVID-19 infections due to the delta variant of the coronavirus threatens demand, and as the threat of additional barrels from Iran following a possible Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action deal hangs over the market. "Russia apparently is leading a group of countries that want to [increase] output. Saudi Arabia is taking a more cautious approach, with Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, cautioning [that] it's not clear whether oil prices were rising due to real supply and demand or because of expectations and trajectories that are excessively optimistic," ANZ analysts said in a June 30 note.
Oil Jumps Ahead Of OPEC+ On Speculation Oil Supply Deal May Be Extended --Brent jumped back over $75 this morning - cementing a stellar first half for oil which saw oil prices rise by 50% for its best half since 2009 - pushed higher by a Reuters report that OPEC+ is expected to discuss the extension of the oil supply deal beyond April 2022 following earlier reports that some minsters are concerned about an oversupplied market in 2022. The jump reversed however following unconfirmed reports that ahead of tomorrow's OPEC+ meeting, Russia had expressed its favor for an increase in OPEC+ oil production starting form August, with an increase between 500k-1mln BPD suggested. As OPEC journalist Reza Zandi added, some members disagree with such suggestions out of the fear that COVID might surge again. The market continues to be dominated by what OPEC and its allies will do next with policy makers weighing pressure to increase supply and the medium-term demand effects from the pandemic. The difficulty in coming to a decision can be seen in the delay of preliminary talks until tomorrow morning to allow more time for compromise ahead of the ministerial meeting, also Thursday. Earlier in the session, WTI and Brent hit session lows of $72.82/bbl and $73.93 respectively, in a move that coincided with declines across equities, even as a base emerged thanks to reports that Iranian nuclear talks have been postponed to an unspecified date – suggesting a smaller likelihood of Iranian oil returning to the market in the initially expected time frame. Elsewhere, Tuesday's OPEC JTC did not provide a recommendation for ministers to consider. The JTC signaled uncertainty about the spread of COVID variants and the speed of vaccine rollouts. It also said that it is monitoring sovereign debt levels, inflation rates, and central bank actions. All*in-all, the technical committee reviewed a range of scenarios and aligned their base case with the June MOMR. Sources suggested Moscow and Riyadh have different views regarding the pace at which oil should be brought back to the market, with the latter favouring a more gradual approach. The Kuwaiti oil minister suggested the group is cautious about raising output amid challenges. The OPEC, JMMC, and OPEC+ meetings are all slated for Thursday at 12:00BST, 15:30BST and 17:00BEST respectively. The JMMC meeting was pushed back with some citing Russian Deputy PM Novak’s calendar, although sources suggested it is to allow for more time to negotiate a compromise (we have included a primer from Newsquawk at the bottom of this post).
WTI Pumps'n'Dumps After 6th Straight Weekly Crude Draw -Oil prices dumped and pumped overnight, testing below $73 and above $74, amid API inventory data, and OPEC+ headlines.“OPEC countries are cautious with regard to output-increase strategy amid oil market challenges,” Kuwait’s Oil Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday.“Any decision the organization will take will be in the interests of producers and consumers.”Bloomberg Intelligence Energy Analyst Fernando Valle notes that despite last week’s massive draws in crude-oil and gasoline inventories, crude prices have stayed relatively flat, signaling some skepticism with the breadth of the recovery. Inventories in China and the Middle East remain elevated, which may contribute to concerns for North American markets. Without a rebound in refined product exports, we believe that refiners are unlikely to increase output in the short term. API:
- Crude -8.153mm (-4.7mm exp)
- Cushing -1.318mm
- Gasoline +2.418mm (-700k exp)
- Distillates +428k (+100k exp)
DOE
- Crude -6.718mm (-4.7mm exp)
- Cushing -1.46mm
- Gasoline +1.522mm (-700k exp)
- Distillates -869k (+100k exp)
Analysts correctly predicted a 6th straight week of crude draws (but the official data was smaller than API) and gasoline stocks unexpectedly rose.,.. WTI hovered between $73 and $74 ahead of the print and barely budged after... Update: That didn't last long...
Oil rises on lower U.S. stockpiles, demand recovery - – Oil prices rose on Wednesday, heading for monthly and quarterly gains, after U.S. crude stockpiles fell for a sixth straight week and an OPEC report foresaw an undersupplied market this year. The Brent crude contract for August, which expired on Wednesday, ended the session up 37 cents, or 0.5% at $75.13 a barrel. The September contract rose 34 cents to settle at $74.62 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled up 49 cents, or 0.7% at $73.47 a barrel. Both benchmarks are just below highs last reached in 2018, and are set to record their seventh monthly gain in the past eight months. WTI rose more than 10% in June while Brent rose over 8%. A Reuters poll showed that Brent was seen averaging $67.48 a barrel this year and WTI $64.54, both up from May’s poll. U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week for the sixth straight week as refiners ramped up output in response to rising demand, the Energy Information Administration said. [EIA/S] Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, slid to their lowest since March 2020, EIA data showed. “With continued decline of Cushing crude oil inventories and an upcoming OPEC+ meeting tomorrow, I expect crude oil prices will rise as the market has been crying out for more supplies,” The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, an alliance known as OPEC+, meet on Thursday. The group is expected to discuss extending its deal on cutting oil supply beyond April 2022. An internal OPEC report seen by Reuters said the oil market would be in deficit in the short term but a glut was on the horizon once the OPEC+ supply cuts ended. Hopes for a broad recovery received a boost from OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo, who said on Tuesday that demand is expected to rise by 6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, with 5 million bpd of that coming in the second half of the year. (GRAPHIC: Global oil supply deficit in 2021 – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xegpbzydapq/Pasted%20image%201624878145906.png) Goldman Sachs forecasts that demand will rise by a further 2.2 million bpd by the end of 2021, leaving a 5 million bpd supply shortfall. “But the real fly in the ointment for the bull case is the UK.” Britain recorded a further 26,068 cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday, the highest daily figure since Jan. 29 and sending the seven-day tally up 70% from the week before, official data showed.
U.S. crude oil prices top $75 a barrel, the highest since 2018 - Oil prices broke above $75 a barrel on Thursday to a near three-year-high ahead of a decision from key producers on production policy for the second half of 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for August settled up 2.4%, or $1.76, at $75.23 a barrel, hitting its highest level since October 2018. The international benchmark Brent crude for September climbed 2%, or $1.49, to $76.10 per barrel. The WTI has climbed more than 50% on the year after starting 2021 at around $48.5 per barrel. Demand has increased as people take to the roads amid the economic reopening, and a rebound in goods transportation and air travel also have supported prices. Gasoline prices are jumping on the back of a post-pandemic driving spree and $75 crude prices could mean even higher prices at the pump. The current average price for a gallon of unleaded gasoline is at $3.123 per gallon, compared to $2.179 per gallon a year ago, according to AAA. The advance came ahead of a meeting among OPEC and non-OPEC partners, an energy alliance often referred to as OPEC+, who have been positive about improved market conditions and the outlook for fuel demand growth following a sharp rebound in oil prices this year. OPEC+ meeting has been postponed to Friday. Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" that the expected OPEC production hike of 500,000 barrels per day might not be enough to keep prices down. "During the month of June, we estimate that the market was in a 2.3 million barrel per day deficit... The bottom line, demand is surging as we head into the summer travel season, and that is against a nearly inelastic supply curve," Currie said. Just over a year ago, WTI futures plunged into negative territory for the first time on record as the coronavirus pandemic took hold, shutting down economies worldwide. Bank of America recently said oil can climb all the way to $100 per barrel amid accelerating demand.
Oil Prices End Trading Day Above $75 - -- Oil advanced, closing above $75 a barrel for the first time since 2018, with an OPEC+ deal left in limbo after producers earlier signaled a tentative agreement to only gradually increase supplies through the end of the year. Futures in New York jumped 2.4% on Thursday, the biggest gain in more than a week. Talks among the OPEC+ alliance ended Thursday with no final agreement on production policy, with the United Arab Emirates raising a last-minute objection to the deal. However, the group earlier appeared to have an agreement in principle to boost output by 400,000 barrels a day each month from August to December. Ministers will reconvene on Friday. “These are cat-herding exercises to a certain extent with getting a couple dozen ministers to agree on pretty much a single number,” said Peter McNally, global head of industrials, materials and energy at Third Bridge. “These things always take time.” Oil posted the best half since 2009 as prices grind higher, aided by a global recovery taking place from the U.S. to Europe and China. Crude inventories in the U.S. are falling at the fastest rate in decades with shale producers and the OPEC+ alliance remaining disciplined. Citigroup Inc. expects the oil market to remain in a deep deficit even after accounting for higher OPEC+ output through the summer. The OPEC+ preliminary agreement was upended by the United Arab Emirates, which said it would only give its support if the baseline for its own cuts was raised considerably, delegates said, asking not to be named because the talks were private. The UAE’s cuts are measured from a starting point in 2018, which set the country’s maximum capacity at 3.168 million barrels a day. But expansion projects have since raised that number to about 4 million barrels a day. Reflecting that new capacity in its baseline could allow it to pump hundreds of thousands of barrels a day of extra crude while technically remaining in compliance with its obligation to cut. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery climbed $1.76 to settle at $75.23 a barrel. Brent for September settlement rose $1.22 to end the session at $75.84 a barrel. Brent’s prompt timespread is 88 cents a barrel in backwardation compared with 75 cents a week ago. Along the oil futures curve, the market structure strengthened and timespreads moved deeper into backwardation, a sign of supply tightness. West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery closed at a $1.27 premium to its October contract, the strongest in about three years. The sharp gains at the front end of the futures curves for Brent and WTI are a sign that traders are banking on extreme market tightness in the coming weeks.
Oil Steady While Traders on Sidelines as OPEC+ Talks Drag On - Oil prices steadied on Friday as OPEC+ ministers resumed talks on raising oil output the day after the United Arab Emirates blocked a deal, which could delay plans to pump more oil through the end of the year. Brent crude futures rose 33 cents to settle at $76.17 a barrel, after rising 1.6% on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 7 cents to settle at $75.16 a barrel, having jumped 2.4% on Thursday to close at their highest since October 2018. On Thursday, both benchmark contracts rose after OPEC+ sources said the group aimed to hike output by less than expected. OPEC+ are set to meet again on Monday after UAE opposed the proposals, which also included extending the pact on output to the end of 2022. The long rally in prices could be undermined if OPEC+ nations go their separate ways and add to supply as they see fit. WTI was on track for a 1.5% rise for the week, with the U.S. crude market expected to tighten as refinery runs pick up to meet recovering gasoline demand. Brent was largely steady on the week, as the market assessed fuel demand concerns in parts of Asia where cases of the highly contagious COVID-19 Delta variant are surging. Also, the rise in oil prices is contributing to global inflation, slowing the economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis. Citi analysts said they do not expect WTI to climb to a premium to Brent as they project U.S. oil output to pick up at the end of 2021 and grow further in 2022. Meanwhile, the number of U.S. oil rigs, an early indicator of future output, rose by four, to 376 in the week to July 2, its highest since April 2020, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co.
OPEC+ ends Friday's meeting without a deal, to seek agreement Monday on oil output policy — OPEC and non-OPEC ministers finished Friday's meeting without a resolution and they will meet again on Monday on oil output policy, CNBC's Brian Sullivan reported. The energy alliance, often referred to as OPEC+, met via videoconference on Friday afternoon to decide on whether to keep output policy unchanged or to ramp up supply further. OPEC+ except for the United Arab Emirates agreed to an easing of cuts and their extension to the end of next year, according to Reuters citing an OPEC+ source. The UAE said the extension is conditional to revising its baseline production, Reuters reported. Oil prices moved on the news, rising slightly Thursday before losing momentum Friday as traders digested the implications. International Brent crude futures traded at $76.03 a barrel, up 0.2% for the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled 7 cents lower at $75.16 a barrel Friday. The OPEC alliance had agreed in principle to increase supply by 400,000 barrels per day from August to December 2021 in order to meet rising demand, Reuters reported, citing unnamed OPEC+ sources. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC leader Russia had also proposed extending the duration of cuts until the end of 2022, according to Reuters. However, Reuters reported that the UAE opposed these plans on the grounds that OPEC+ should change the baseline for cuts, effectively raising its production quota. Neil Atkinson, an independent oil analyst, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Friday that tensions between the UAE and other OPEC+ members had been "bubbling under for quite some time now." "The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has been investing in new capacity, it's been taking a more active role in trading," he said, adding that it has perhaps started operating more like an international oil company than a national oil company. Unlike international oil companies, decisions taken by national oil companies tend to be influenced by the state. "They look to the future, they see demand for oil continuing to grow in the medium term, they've installed more capacity and they want a greater share of that market as we move through the 2020s," he added. Analysts at risk consultancy Eurasia Group said they believe the oil producer group is still likely to reach a deal. "The UAE might be negotiating but it is unlikely to muster courage to risk it all till the very end. It will want to avoid sabotaging an OPEC+ agreement and potentially being blamed for a rise in oil prices that increases global inflation," the analysts said Friday, noting that the UAE's own relationship with Asian energy clients could suffer if prices continue to increase. "While a UAE withdrawal from OPEC+ should definitely not be dismissed, such a decision would be surprising. Such a move would compromise Abu Dhabi's relationship with Riyadh, its broad positioning in the region, and its ability to build alliances over the long-term. Therefore, compromise appears to be the most likely outcome." OPEC+, which is dominated by Middle East crude producers, agreed to implement massive crude productions cuts in 2020 in an effort to support oil prices when the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic fuel demand shock.
OPEC+ seeks agreement on oil output policy after initial talks end in disarray— OPEC and non-OPEC ministers finished Friday's meeting without a resolution and they will meet again on Monday on oil output policy, CNBC's Brian Sullivan reported. The energy alliance, often referred to as OPEC+, met via videoconference on Friday afternoon to decide on whether to keep output policy unchanged or to ramp up supply further. OPEC+ except for the United Arab Emirates agreed to an easing of cuts and their extension to the end of next year, according to Reuters citing an OPEC+ source. The UAE said the extension is conditional to revising its baseline production, Reuters reported. Oil prices moved on the news, rising slightly Thursday before losing momentum Friday as traders digested the implications. International Brent crude futures traded at $76.03 a barrel, up 0.2% for the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled 7 cents lower at $75.16 a barrel Friday. The OPEC alliance had agreed in principle to increase supply by 400,000 barrels per day from August to December 2021 in order to meet rising demand, Reuters reported, citing unnamed OPEC+ sources. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC leader Russia had also proposed extending the duration of cuts until the end of 2022, according to Reuters. However, Reuters reported that the UAE opposed these plans on the grounds that OPEC+ should change the baseline for cuts, effectively raising its production quota.Neil Atkinson, an independent oil analyst, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Friday that tensions between the UAE and other OPEC+ members had been "bubbling under for quite some time now." "The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has been investing in new capacity, it's been taking a more active role in trading," he said, adding that it has perhaps started operating more like an international oil company than a national oil company. Unlike international oil companies, decisions taken by national oil companies tend to be influenced by the state. "They look to the future, they see demand for oil continuing to grow in the medium term, they've installed more capacity and they want a greater share of that market as we move through the 2020s," he added. Analysts at risk consultancy Eurasia Group said they believe the oil producer group is still likely to reach a deal. "The UAE might be negotiating but it is unlikely to muster courage to risk it all till the very end. It will want to avoid sabotaging an OPEC+ agreement and potentially being blamed for a rise in oil prices that increases global inflation," the analysts said Friday, noting that the UAE's own relationship with Asian energy clients could suffer if prices continue to increase. "While a UAE withdrawal from OPEC+ should definitely not be dismissed, such a decision would be surprising. Such a move would compromise Abu Dhabi's relationship with Riyadh, its broad positioning in the region, and its ability to build alliances over the long-term. Therefore, compromise appears to be the most likely outcome."
How Much Oil Can Saudi Arabia Really Produce? So to the actual oil crude oil production numbers: as highlighted above, the average amount of crude oil that Saudi Arabia was able to pump from 1973 to last month was 8.162 million bpd. That is it, there is no equivocation on that number, and no account is taken within that number of the unverifiable claims of any other ‘oil equivalents’ that Saudi likes to throw into any questioning of that number in order to further obfuscate the issue. If this – correct – number is used as the basis for discussion then all of Saudi Arabia’s subsequent activities make perfect sense. Most tellingly in this regard, the question often asked around the time of the firstSaudi-instigated oil price war from 2014-2016 that was aimed at destroying the then-nascent U.S. shale oil threat to Saudi was: ‘Why didn’t the Saudis pump more oil to crash prices more?’ After all, the Saudi strategy was for it and all other OPEC members to pump as much crude oil as possible to push oil prices as low as possible to cause as many bankruptcies as possible in the U.S. shale oil sector. The fact of the matter is that the Saudis did pump everything it could at that point. It pumped its usual 8.1 and a bit million bpd, plus it pumped to the maximum on all of its other fields, plus it used its oil in storage but despite all of that it was not able to produce more than around 10 million barrels per day of oil at any point for more than a few months or so (basically until its storage ran out and it had to rely on genuine production from the wellheads). Given that what was at stake in the 2014-2016 oil price war was the long-term future of Saudi Arabia as a significant power in the Middle East and the world, if it could have pumped one drop of oil more over that period then it would have. This leads to Saudi’s nonsensical claims about its spare capacity. These claims have been based on the foundation that its base crude oil production is around 10 million bpd rather than the 8.162 million bpd that is factually correct. It did indeed, as mentioned, produce just about 10 million bpd during its existentially important oil price war of 2014-2016 but that was going at absolutely full tilt and included storage volumes. The point here is that spare capacity is precisely that: basically, the extra amount that a country can produce in an emergency if and when required over and above the amount that can be produced with ease every day. The Energy Information Administration defines spare capacity specifically as production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, whilst even Saudi Arabia has said that it would need at least 90 days to move rigs to drill new wells and raise production to the mythical 12 million bpd or 12.5 million bpd level. Abiding by this rule, Saudi Arabia’s genuine spare capacity up to at least the end of 2016 was at most about 2 million barrels per day using 8 million bpd as the base number, so equalling about 10 million bpd in total, which is precisely what it produced when it needed maximum production most (that is, during the 2014-2016 oil price war). The Saudis instead have been using the correct spare capacity of 2 million bpd but adding it to the false baseline production number of 10 million bpd for years, giving a number that it keeps mentioning of total capacity of 12-13 million bpd. Indeed, during its ill-fated 2020 oil price war the Saudi Ministry of Energy said it would increase its maximum sustained capacity to 13 million bpd. So fundamentally wrong is this Saudi number that it was forced to say so in the prospectus for its latest bond Saudi Aramco stated that it has not yet embarked on work to expand its maximum sustained capacity to this 13 million bpd level.
US troops come under fire in Syria after weekend airstrikes -- U.S. forces in Syria came under fire on Monday, a day after the Pentagon launched airstrikes on Iran-backed militia groups on the Iraq-Syria border. Col. Wayne Marotto, spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve, confirmed the attack on Twitter, saying it occurred around 7:44 p.m. local time in Syria. No injuries were reported. Marotto later tweeted that U.S. forces responded by conducting "counter-battery artillery fire at rocket launching positions." .. The attack comes just one day after the U.S. carried out airstrikes on weapons storage facilities operated by the Iran-backed militia groups Kata'ib Hezbollah and Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada. U.S. military officials believe that the storage facilities were being used for unmanned aerial vehicle attacks against American troops based in Iraq. "At President Biden's direction, U.S. military forces earlier this evening conducted defensive precision airstrikes against facilities used by Iran-backed militia groups in the Iraq-Syria border region,” the Pentagon said in a statement Sunday. “The strikes were both necessary to address the threat and appropriately limited in scope. As a matter of domestic law, the President took this action pursuant to his Article II authority to protect U.S. personnel in Iraq.
IDF Forces Deploy New Semi-Autonomous Robots To Gaza Border - An armed robot equipped with optical sensors and a 7.62mm machine gun has been spotted on the Gaza border by the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a secular Palestinian Marxist–Leninist organization, according to The Times of Israel's Emanuel Fabian. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) appear to have deployed a new semi-autonomous robotic ground tank called the Jaguar that patrols the Gaza border and removes soldiers out of harm's way from sniper attacks by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad groups. The Jerusalem Post said Israel Aerospace Industries' Elta systems develop the unmanned ground vehicle in close collaboration with IDF's Ground Forces Command. The Jaguar military robot is on a six-wheeled chassis that is heavy-duty and highly maneuverable, equipped with a weapon station, communications and sensors. A turret is mounted on the front of the robot, firing a 7.62mm MAG machine gun that can be operated remotely.
‘Catastrophe’ warning as Lebanon's fuel crisis hits hospitals -Dr. Samer Saade’s car ran out of fuel this morning while he was on his way to work at Hammoud Hospital University Medical Center in Sidon, southern Lebanon. “I haven’t been able to fill my car for the past four days,” Saade told Arab News. The emergency room physician, like practically all Lebanese, has been hit hard by the ongoing fuel shortage in the crisis-hit country.Giant queues clogging roads near petrol stations have become a common sight and refueling is limited to 15 or 20 liters, making long-distance travel a thing of the past.The fuel crisis, however, is not only limited to the petrol needed for cars; it has also made its way to the country’s beleaguered electricity grid.Lebanon’s hospitals were already struggling to cope with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic before the latest electricity crisis.Now, doctors say, they are being stretched even further with shortages of medical supplies and fuel.“Medicine shortages, equipment shortages, hyperinflation pricing out the poor from getting care — anything that can go wrong in this country will go wrong, basically,” Saade said.At the hospital, state electricity “barely comes on for two or three hours per day,” Saade said, with four private generators needed to fill the gap.Two of Lebanon’s Turkish power barges have been shut down amid an ongoing feud with the parent company, while the other four state-owned power plants are running on fumes.
U.S. Warns Against Travel to UAE, Citing High Virus Cases - The U.S. on Monday raised its travel warning for the United Arab Emirates to its highest level, citing a “very high level” of coronavirus in the Gulf nation. While the UAE has one of the world’s fastest vaccination programs, daily new infections have hovered around 2,000 since March. The country has been on a “red list” for travel to the U.K. since January, putting one of the world’s busiest air routes on ice. More than one-third of the UAE’s infections are of the delta strain of the pathogen first detected in India. The US State Department warning comes as Dubai, one of the emirates in the UAE, prepares for a delayed global trade fair in October. Dubai is aiming for 25 million unique visits and hopes to generate billions of dollars in revenue. Read: Dubai Lures Wall Street Jet-Setters as Business Revives Neighboring Qatar, which plans to host a soccer World Cup in 2022, said preparations are on track despite setbacks. The nation plans to provide vaccination to all attendees. Liberia, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia have all experienced recent outbreaks and were put in the same Level 4 category as the UAE, according to a State Department statement on Monday.
Abu Dhabi Set to Restrict Public Spaces to Vaccinated People --The oil-rich capital of the United Arab Emirates plans to restrict entry to public spaces and schools to people who have been vaccinated.Access to universities, schools, nurseries, gyms and shopping centers in Abu Dhabi will be restricted from August 20, the Emergency, Crisis and Disasters Committee said late on Monday. The decision won’t apply to people who are exempt from taking a vaccine and to children aged 15 and under.The move comes months after the UAE said it was considering restrictions on people who haven’t yet taken a vaccine despite being eligible for one,sparking criticism online and drawing in a member of Dubai’s ruling family. Earlier this month, Abu Dhabi said it’ll restrict entry to public venues to people who are vaccinated or have tested negative.The UAE, a federation of seven sheikhdoms including Abu Dhabi and Dubai, has one of the highest inoculation rates globally. Cases have fallen from a peak of 4,000 a day in February, but have still hovered at about 2,000 since March.Late on Monday, the U.S. raised its travel warning for the UAE to the highest risk level. The Gulf nation continues to be on a “red list” for travel to the U.K.
NATO begins massive anti-Russian Sea Breeze military exercises NATO intensified its provocations against Russia Monday, with the launch of two weeks of military exercises in the Black Sea region. Operation Sea Breeze will continue until at least July 10.The largest ever NATO operation in the Black Sea takes place under explosive conditions, beginning just six days after Russian armed forced fired warning shots and then dropped four bombs in the path of HMS Defender, a British warship that entered Russia’s territorial waters off Crimea. The US ignored a request made June 22 from Russia's embassy in Washington—just hours before the UK warship incident—for Sea Breeze to be cancelled this year, with Moscow warning of the danger of military confrontation.This week’s Sea Breeze manoeuvres, which have taken place annually since 1997, are the largest ever. Co-hosted by the US and Ukrainian navies, Sea Breeze 2021 will involve 32 countries, 5,000 troops, 32 ships, 40 aircraft and 18 special operations. It is being led by the Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 (SNMG2), an immediate reaction force which consists of four to six destroyers and frigates. A squadron of US Marines are taking part, with the main naval force involved the US Navy’s Sixth Fleet headquartered in Naples, Italy. The NATO website states that “allies and partners” will participate from “Albania, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Morocco, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Romania, Senegal, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, and the United States.”Last year Sea Breeze took place over just four days between July 20 and 24. with only ships, aircraft and personnel from the United States, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Georgia, Norway, Romania, Spain and Turkey. In a June 25 statement NATO said, “The exercise will focus on multiple warfare areas including amphibious warfare, land manoeuvre warfare, diving operations, maritime interdiction operations, air defence, special operations integration, anti-submarine warfare, and search and rescue operations.”
‘This means war’: China warns US over military ties with Taipei --China on Wednesday warned the United States over increasing military contacts with Taiwan saying that seeking independence of Taiwan means ‘war’. China defense ministry spokesperson Ren Guoqiang said that China believes in its complete reunification and expressed Beijing’s opposition towards Washington-Taipei military ties.Guoqiang said that China remains firmly opposed to any official exchanges or military contacts between the US and Taiwan and asked Washington to ‘sever all military ties with Taiwan’. “The complete reunification of China is a historical necessity and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is an unstoppable trend. The common aspirations of the people are peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. ‘Taiwan independence’ is a dead-end road and seeking it means war,” the statement quoting Guoqiang said.Guoqiang reminded the US to fully understand China’s development and growth by external focus and asked the US to abide by the one-China principle. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has recently ramped up political and military pressure.Taiwan foreign minister Joseph Wu said that the nation needs to prepare for a possible military conflict due to China’s increasing intimidation tactics. Taiwan reported several incursions into its airspace by Chinese warplanes. Guoqiang also said that the People Liberation Army (PLA) dispatched multi-type aircraft to conduct exercises in the Taiwan Strait. He highlighted that the move was necessary in response to the current situation across the Taiwan Strait and China’s need to safeguard its sovereignty. In retaliation, the US stepped up its support to Taipei.
North Korean state TV acknowledges Kim Jong Un's 'emaciated looks' - North Korean state television on Monday acknowledged the country's leader Kim Jong Un’s “emaciated looks,” as speculation around his suspected weight loss and health continues.The Associated Press reports that the remarks were aired by state media that was quoting concerned North Korean citizens.“Our people’s hearts ached most when we saw (Kim’s) emaciated looks,” North Korean state TV quoted an unidentified man as saying. “Everyone says their tears are welling up in their eyes naturally.”When Kim, 37, made his first public appearance in a month earlier in June, international observers noticed what appeared to be a significant weight loss.South Korea-based newspaper NK News reported that it appeared that Kim had tightened the wrist strap on his favorite watch.“On the surface, noticeable weight loss may not mean much, but it can provide clues to other information that intelligence collectors look for,” intelligence officer for U.S. Special Operations Command in South Korea, Mike Brodka, told NK News. One expert told NK News that an intentional weight loss could improve "his position at home," thus providing "more predictability" for regional powers. However, if the weight loss was due to a health condition, then those around him may have already begun to take over his position.A few weeks ago, Kim reportedly gave remarks at a meeting warning of possible food shortages.“The people’s food situation is now getting tense as the agricultural sector failed to fulfill its grain production plan due to the damage by typhoon last year,” Kim reportedly said.
Hong Kong bars passenger flights from Britain. - Hong Kong will suspend all passenger flights from Britain beginning July 1, the government said on Monday, citing the spread of the more virulent Delta coronavirus variant in the United Kingdom, which will be reclassified as “extremely high-risk.”People who have stayed in Britain for longer than two hours will also be barred from boarding passenger flights bound for Hong Kong, the authorities said.“A number of cases imported from the U.K. involving variant virus strains have persistently been found in the past few days,” officials said, according to Hong Kong’s government news agency.The restrictions are the second time Hong Kong has suspended flights from Britain. After an outbreak of a dangerous variant in December, authorities barred passengers from entering, leavingmany Hong Kong residents angered and confused as they desperately tried to return home.Those restrictions were lifted in May.Now, Britain is struggling with rising infections, recording a 109 percent spike in cases over the past 14 days, though cases remain a fraction of their winter peak, according to a New York Times database. Experts say the rise is likely linked to the highly contagious Delta variant, which is spreading rapidly in other countries as well.The World Health Organization has said the variant is likely to become the most globally dominant strain of the disease.On Monday, the prime minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, also announced new restrictions on visitors from Britain. They will be required to present a negative coronavirus test or proof of full vaccination to enter the country. In Hong Kong, restrictions on passengers arriving from Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines and South Africa will also remain in place.
Indonesia Covid Restriction Rules to Be Stricter as Delta Cases Rise - Indonesia is set to enforce stricter restrictions of a larger scale in a bid to halt a rapid rise in coronavirus infections. The new measures will be comprehensive and people living in heavily-infected areas will be asked to stay at home and avoid non-essential travel, Alexander Ginting, a member of the Covid-19 taskforce said in a televised interview with Metro TV on Tuesday. The government is finalizing the plan and an official announcement will be made soon, he added.President Joko Widodo has also appointed Luhut Panjaitan, coordinating minister for maritime and investment affairs, to coordinate the “emergency” set of restrictions for Java and Bali islands, said the ministry’s spokesman Jodi Mahardi. Supermarkets, shopping malls and essential sectors will continue to operate with shorter hours and stricter health protocols, he added.Southeast Asia’s biggest economy is battling a resurgence in Covid-19 cases made worse by the more contagious Delta variant. The strain has now spread widely across Java, the most populated island, while hospitalization rates exceeded 90%, according to the health ministry. Jokowi, as the president is known, previously resisted public calls for a lockdown, saying the existing restrictions focused on the most heavily-infected areas can curb the spread of infections without “killing the people’s economy,” he said last Wednesday.With less than 10% of the country’s 270 million people vaccinated, he is pushing to double inoculation rate to 2 million per day, which he hopes to achieve in August. The country added over 20,000 new infections on Tuesday, taking its total confirmed cases to more than 2.1 million.Under the new restrictions, malls in some areas will have to close at 5 p.m. and restaurants will no longer be allowed to accept dine-in customers and will operate at shorter hours until 8 p.m., Ganip Warsito, head of the Covid-19 taskforce told Metro TV in a separate interview. Earlier, The Straits Times reported, citing unnamed government officials, that non-essential workers will be told to work from home under the new rules and all domestic air services will only fly vaccinated travelers and those who have tested negative for the virus.
Almost half of Australia’s population under lockdown measures as Delta outbreak grows - Since Saturday, four state and territory governments have initiated limited lockdown measures, covering up to 12 million people, or almost half Australia’s population, as outbreaks of the highly-contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 spread across the country. Infection numbers remain relatively low, in the dozens each day in Sydney, where the current swell began, and single figures in several other cities. The governments have been compelled to impose restrictions, however, because Labor and Liberal-National administrations at the state and federal levels have created what some epidemiologists have termed a “perfect storm” for a major surge of the disease. Prior to the current outbreaks, almost all safety measures, including caps on mass events, had been lifted. Australia has the slowest vaccination rate of an advanced OECD country, with only around 7 percent of the adult population fully-inoculated. Governments have, throughout the pandemic, failed to develop an effective quarantine program, instead relying on private hotels that are incapable of stemming airborne transmission and have been the source of up to 30 COVID “leaks.” The high transmissibility of the Delta variant, which is twice as contagious as the original version of the disease, and widespread public anger over the government failures, have prompted the current lockdowns. Governments fear the public backlash, under conditions in which their political survival over the past year has largely depended on false claims to have protected the population from the coronavirus disasters witnessed internationally. Over recent days, demands for the resignation of Prime Minister Scott Morrison and denunciations of state leaders, particularly New South Wales (NSW) Premier Gladys Berejiklian, have developed on Australian social media platforms. NSW authorities this morning reported 22 infections in the 24 hours to 8 p.m. last night. This takes the total number of locally-acquired cases since June 16 to 171. They are all of the Delta variant and are in or near Sydney, the country’s most-populous city.
The offshore hive of Zimbabwe’s ‘Queen Bee’ -As the ruthless, army-backed successor to Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa is known as the crocodile. And yet the best symbol of how hopes for a better Zimbabwe have faded since the 2017 coup against Mugabe is, in many ways, a bee. After he took power, Mnangagwa promised to make Zimbabwe “open for business” and to end systematic corruption that obliterated the economy under the late dictator. But for many ordinary Zimbabweans, his regime has become associated instead with a ‘Queen Bee’ - Kudakwashe Tagwirei, a business magnate in the southern African nation who has gained the moniker because of his perceived element of control over Mnangagwa’s government and ruling Zanu-PF that allegedly benefits his commercial interests.Tagwirei owns Sakunda, a fuel importer that until last year had a joint venture with Trafigura, the global trader. He has maintained a public silence on the claims against him and the true extent of these alleged interests has been a mystery. Until now.Tagwirei secretly controlled an offshore empire that bought up a major share of the southern African nation’s mineral wealth and funnelled millions of dollars through shell companies, according to documents including a court filing seen by FT Alphaville.Tagwirei, according to the documents, directed Sotic International, a Mauritius-based commodity trader that went on a mine-buying spree in Zimbabwe in the last two years, and a web of related companies across three countries. Tagwirei did not respond to requests for comment. On Thursday, the Sentry, the US investigative anti-corruption NGO, also released a report on Tagwirei’s business activities.Last year the US imposed sanctions on Tagwirei and accused him in a statement of using “a combination of opaque business dealings and his ongoing relationship with President Mnangagwa to grow his business empire dramatically.” The sanctions also targeted Sakunda as the company most closely tied to Tagwirei. But documents seen by AV indicate that Tagwirei’s corporate reach goes much further. Sotic and South African, Mauritian and Zimbabwean companies were “fully integrated” parts of Sakunda, according to an application to a South African court that Tagwirei authorised last year just before the US sanctions.Tagwirei also oversaw a group of South African executives who managed the companies day by day, while directing their financing behind the scenes, according to emails and records. Tagwirei did not respond to requests for comment.Meanwhile, Tagwirei also acquired shares in a Cayman Islands-registered investment fund, Almas Global Opportunities, that later acquired a two-thirds stake in Sotic, according to his signed subscription to the shares dated October 2019. Almas denies that he is currently a shareholder but declined to comment on whether he previously held shares.
South African regulator says it's powerless over suspected $3.6 billion bitcoin scam, as crypto is out of its reach - South Africa's financial services regulator has said it can't take any action over asuspected scam that lawyers say has caused as much as $3.6 billion worth of bitcointo go missing.The country's Financial Sector Conduct Authority said Thursday that Africrypt, the company linked to the lost holdings, looks like a Ponzi scheme set up to defraud investors.Yet the FSCA said that as cryptocurrencies are not regulated financial products or services in South Africa, it is powerless to do anything in this case."At this stage we have only found evidence of crypto asset transactions," it said in a statement. "Currently crypto assets are not regulated in terms of any financial sector law in South Africa and consequently the FSCA is not in a position to take any regulatory action."Africrypt was created by brothers Ameer and Raees Cajee in 2019, and based in Johannesburg in South Africa.According to a police statement seen by Bloomberg, the company promised high returns of up to five times principal investments.Yet Hanekom Attorneys, the lawyers for the affected investors, now say that the brothers - and as much as $3.6 billion of bitcoin - have vanished, in what they describe as a "heist". Insider was unable to contact the crypto company, whose website is down.The FSCA said: "This entity was offering exceptionally high and unrealistic returns akin to those offered by unlawful investment schemes commonly known as Ponzi's.""The public is urged to understand that unrealistically high returns suggests that the investment scheme is likely to be fraudulent," it added.
751 unmarked graves discovered at Canadian residential school site in Saskatchewan -- The Cowessess First Nation has announced that 751 unmarked graves have been discovered on reserve land that once housed the Marieval Indian Residential School in Saskatchewan’s Qu’Appelle Valley.This grisly discovery comes just weeks after the remains of 215 children were discovered on the site of an Indian residential school in Kamloops, British Columbia, and sheds light, yet again, on the brutal and inhumane treatment Canadian capitalism and its state have meted out to the indigenous population.Cowessess Chief Cadmus Delorme addressed reporters at a virtual news conference last Thursday morning, where he relayed details of the operation that has been underway to locate the graves.The First Nation partnered with technical teams from Saskatchewan Polytechnic to begin the search in early June. Using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), the teams covered the 44,000 square metres that previously constituted the residential school’s Roman Catholic cemetery.Delorme said that there could be more than 751 bodies buried at the site. GPR registered 751 “recorded hits” during the searches. However, it is possible that more than one set of remains are buried at some “hit” locations. He noted that penetrating radar has a 10 to 15 percent error rate and that technical teams will announce a verified number of how many remains have been found in the weeks to come.“This is not a mass grave site. These are unmarked graves,” he clarified at Thursday’s press conference. He explained that the community will now be treating the site “like a crime scene,” with the goal of matching names to those in the graves and eventually erecting a monument on the site to memorialize them. On Saturday, a vigil involving members of the First Nation band was held at which 751 solar-powered lamps were placed on the 751 grave sites identified to date. The search efforts are “Phase 1” of ongoing work within the Cowessess First Nation, guided by the community’s oral history, to locate the victims of the residential school system as well as other unmarked gravesites. These include unbaptized babies whom Church authorities refused to allow to be buried alongside those inducted into the Catholic faith.
With The Fed In Denial, Hawkish Bank Of Russia Sees Inflation "Not Transitory", Warns Of Possible Shock-And-Awe Rate-Hike - Consumer price inflation in Russia is red-hot, having jumped 6.0% in May compared to a year ago, 2 percentage points above the Bank of Russia’s target of 4.0%.Polls in Russia show that food inflation is a top concern, currently running at 7.4%. But inflation in the US isn’t lagging far behind: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 5.0% in May.Yet the central banks are on opposite tracks in their approach to inflation.Federal Reserve governors keep jabbering about this red-hot inflation being “temporary” or “transitory,” and likely to disappear on its own despite huge government stimulus and the Fed’s huge and ongoing monetary stimulus, though some doubts are creeping in among a couple of them. So they’ll keep interest rates at near-zero until at least next year, and they’re still buying $120 billion a month in securities to push down long-term interest rates.Russia has been on the opposite trajectory, “surprising” economists at every step along the way. This trajectory started on March 19 with a 25 basis point rate hike, to 4.5%, against the expectations of 27 of the 28 economists polled by Reuters, who didn’t expect a rate hike. On April 23, the Bank of Russia hiked its policy rate by 50 basis points, to 5.0%. On June 11, it hiked by another 50 basis points to 5.5%. The next policy meeting is scheduled for July 23. Is a shock-and-awe rate hike next? Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina is preparing the markets for this possibility – so it won’t be a shock, but just awe.At the July meeting, the central bank “will consider” an increase in the range from “25 basis points to 1 percentage point,” she told Bloomberg TV in an interview.“We see that inflation remains elevated” and that “inflation expectations are quite high,” she said.The initial factors in this surge of inflation were the weakening ruble last year and commodity and food price increases. They alone might not require a monetary policy intervention, she said. But now inflation expectations remain elevated, which creates second-round effects, she said.
Tourism Begins to Recover in Europe, But Is It Just a Dead Cat Bounce? - Before Covid-19 brought global travel to a virtual standstill, Europe was the undisputed heavyweight of international tourism. It attracted over 700 million inbound tourists in 2019,contributed an estimated €2.19 trillion to EU GDP and provided as many as 35 million jobs. But much of that money has disappeared and many of those jobs are on hold. Thousands of businesses, particularly small ones, have closed their doors. Many of those that haven’t are barely hanging on.Between April 2020, when the whole region was in lockdown, and March 2021, when it began to slowly emerge after a long dark winter, the number of overnight stays in the EU slumped by 61% year over year, from 2.8 billion to 1.1 billion, according to figures released on Friday by Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office. The countries hit hardest include many of the southern European countries that were already sledgehammered by Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. Among the EU member states with available data, the sharpest falls were recorded in Malta, where overnight stays fell by a massive 80%; Spain (-78%); Greece (-74%) and Portugal (70%).Before Covid struck, tourism provided 10% of GDP in France, 13% in Italy and Spain, almost 15% in Portugal and 20% in Greece. But tourism is also heavily localised. In some parts of Spain, such as the Balearic Islands or the Canary Islands, it accounts for roughly one out of every three euros generated in the local economy. The same goes for parts of Greece, Portugal and Italy. A huge chunk of that money disappeared last year, with brutal consequences for the local economy. In Greece GDP per capita lost another two percentage points and now amounts to just 64% of the EU average, having plunged from 95 percentage points since 2009. But there are hopes that this trend may be stalled, if not reversed, as Europe’s economy reopens. The continent is currently open for unrestricted travel to 15 “Covid-19 safe countries”: Albania, Australia, the Chinese regions of Hong Kong and Macao, Israel, Japan, Lebanon, New Zealand, Republic of North Macedonia, Rwanda, Serbia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and the United States. According to a new EU tourism tracker developed by Oxford Economics, the rebound in tourism is already gathering speed. Overall tourism is up 20% on 2020’s anaemic levels and in Europe’s tourism hotspots it’s up 36% on average since March.But it’s still way down on the 2019 numbers. And warning signs are already flashing that the reopening of Europe’s tourism industry could be short lived.On Monday, Portugal imposed new quarantine rules on unvaccinated British travellers, placing the UK in the same high-risk category as Brazil, South Africa, India and Nepal. It means that all visitors from the UK to mainland Portugal must now quarantine for 14 days “at home or at a location designated by health authorities” unless they can show that they have been fully vaccinated at least two weeks earlier. Those who haven’t now have to quarantine for 14 days on arrival in Portugal and another ten days on their return to the UK. The rules are set to last until at least July 11.The tightening of rules on British travellers comes amid a surge in cases of the Delta variant first discovered in India. On Monday Britain reported another 22,868 coronavirus cases, the highestsince the end of January, even though more than 60% of the population have received both doses of the vaccine. Covid-19 related hospitalisations and deaths remain extremely low.
With an influx of British tourists on the horizon, Spain tightens entry requirements. - Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of Spain announced on Monday that British visitors would have to present a negative Covid-19 test or proof of full vaccination, bowing to concerns about a massive influx of summer tourists from Britain, which has been grappling with the Delta variant of the disease.Last week, the British government added Spain’s Balearic Islands to its “green list” of countries and territories from which British visitors can return without quarantining, providing a major lift to the islands’ tourism-dependent economies.But the authorities on the islands then asked Spain’s central government for tougher screening measures for arrivals from Britain. Sensitivities were also raised after an outbreak among hundreds of Spanish students who were visiting Mallorca, the largest of the islands, to celebrate the end of their academic year.Spain lifted restrictions on British visitors on May 24, just as Germany, France and some other European countries reintroduced quarantine rules for the British in order to avoid the spread of the Delta variant. Since then, Germany and France have pushed for a British quarantine obligation to be applied across the European Union, but so far to no avail, as countries like Spain rely heavily on British visitors in the summer tourism season.
With the Delta variant spreading, Portugal brings back curfews - The highly contagious Delta variant is surging in countries around the world, from Indonesia to parts of Europe, leading governments to reimpose restrictions just weeks after they had taken steps to return to ordinary life. The latest example is Portugal, which on Friday will impose a curfew from 11 p.m. to 5 a.m. in Lisbon, Porto and other popular tourism spots, reversing course after it had reopened its economy to prepare for summer travelers. Scientists believe that the Delta variant may be twice as transmissible as the original strain of the coronavirus. But in countries where high percentages of the population have been vaccinated, the outlook is encouraging, with death tolls and hospitalization numbers remaining low. The vaccines made by Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson have been found to be effective against the Delta variant. In Portugal, 34 percent of people are fully vaccinated, compared with about 46 percent in the United States, according to Our World In Data. Portugal’s new curfews are designed to discourage gatherings of younger people at night, said Mariana Vieira da Silva, a cabinet minister. “This is a time to follow the rules, avoid gatherings, avoid parties and seek to contain the numbers,” she said. The curfews apply in 19 municipalities ranked as having a “very elevated risk” of Covid-19 and a further 26 with an “elevated risk.” On Thursday, Portugal reported almost 2,500 new cases, the highest daily rise since mid-February, although cases have remained far below its January peak of more 16,000 per day. In early June, cases in the country had remained so consistently low that Britain allowed its residents to visit without having to quarantine on return. But the day after that announcement was made, London jolted Portugal by downgrading it over concerns about the Delta variant. London’s decisions were especially significant because Portugal is a popular destination for British tourists, including many who are eager to visit after a year of pandemic lockdowns. The abrupt change in travel rules prompted thousands of tourists in Portugal to catch early flights back to Britain ahead of a quarantine deadline.
Crowds for European Championship soccer games are driving infections, the W.H.O. says. - Scotland supporters celebrating at the Euro 2020 soccer championship match between Scotland and England at Wembley Stadium in London on June 18.Credit...Carl Recine/Associated PressCrowds gathering in stadiums, pubs and bars to watch the European Championship soccer games have driven a rise in coronavirus cases across Europe, the World Health Organization said on Thursday, raising concerns about another virus wave even though vaccination campaigns have made progress.“We need to look much beyond just the stadiums themselves,” said Catherine Smallwood, the W.H.O.’s senior emergency officer. “We need to look at how people get there: Are they traveling in large, crowded convoys of buses? And when they leave the stadiums, are they going into crowded bars and pubs to watch the matches?”In Scotland, more than 2,000 people tested positive after watching a Euro 2020 game either at a stadium, a fan zone or at a pub, according to National Health Scotland. (Nearly two-thirds of those cases were linked to a Euro 2020 game in London in mid-June.) At least 120 fans from Finland were infected after traveling to St. Petersburg, Russia, to watch their team play.After months of virus restrictions, and with the European Championships postponed for a year, soccer fans have been eager to travel across borders to watch the games in person. Finnish tourists attended games in Russia, French fans traveled to Romania, and Welsh ones supported their team in the Netherlands. In countries like Belgium, Britain and France, bars had reopened just weeks before the tournament began.But given that most European countries have fully vaccinated less than a third of their populations, the risks are high. Experts say that the lax restrictions imposed on travel for the soccer championship may have serious consequences later in the summer or in the fall.The rise in cases linked to the tournament comes more than a year after soccer games hosted early last year led to some of the first outbreaks in Europe.Germany’s interior minister, Horst Seehofer, called the decision by European’s soccer governing body, UEFA, which runs the tournament, to allow large crowds in stadiums “utterly irresponsible.”Despite the warnings by the W.H.O., British officials are allowing 60,000 fans to attend each of the tournament’s three final games in London next week.
England opens up a narrow quarantine exemption for business travelers. - The British government introduced a new exemption to its quarantine rules on Tuesday for business travelers “bringing significant economic benefit” to England, but the move is unlikely to quell frustrations that certain travel routes in and out of Britain remain effectively shut.The exemption has strict criteria and applies only to executives whose work supports at least 500 British jobs. It is much tighter than one that was in place for about six weeks from early December, when travelers needed to support only 50 jobs in Britain.There has been a growing concern that Britain’s strict travel rules could lead the country to miss out on business opportunities as other countries welcome the return of travelers, especially from the United States. Since Britain left the European Union, it is also particularly anxious about not losing lucrative business activity to its neighbors across the English Channel.Parts of Britain, such as the financial and legal district of the City of London, rely heavily on the presence of large multinational corporations. But most people entering the country either must quarantine for 10 days and take coronavirus tests on the second and eighth days or must pay for an additional test to end their self-isolation after five days.Earlier this month, France reopened its borders to vaccinated American tourists, and last week, Germany said all Americans could enter the country.Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, met with President Emmanuel Macron of France this week in Paris and opened up a new European Union trading hub on Tuesday. The bank is increasing the number of staff in Paris to 700 by the end of the year, up from 265 before Britain left the European Union. But Mr. Dimon won’t be stopping in Britain, where the company has 19,000 employees and offices in four cities, as he has in past trips to Europe, because of the country’s travel restrictions.Any executives hoping to leave quarantine will have to meet strict requirements, including proving that the work being done in England “has a greater than 50 percent chance of creating or preserving at least 500 U.K.-based jobs” at a company that already has at least 500 employees or at a new British business. Executives have to apply to the government and get written approval, which can take up to five days, before traveling. When the executive isn’t doing business activity, they must self-isolate at all other times, the government said.
UK teachers with Long COVID face victimisation - Latest government data from a React-2 study by Imperial College London found there are two million cases of Long COVID among England population of around 56 million. Long COVID covers those people still suffering symptoms more than 12 weeks after infection. The UK’s COVID-19 death toll has passed 152,000, but the Conservative government lifted most safety restrictions on May 17. Cases since then have surged, fuelled by the spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant. This has allowed the virus to spread among young adults and school children in particular, and others who are either unvaccinated or have not received the two required jabs. Yet, despite scientists predicting a catastrophic rise in hospitalisations and deaths without the strictest public health measures, the government is intent on lifting all measures to mitigate the virus, including mask wearing, by July 19. It is impervious to the suffering inflicted, including the long-term effects of the disease. The React-2 study found that women and those admitted to hospital were at greater risk of Long COVID, and the prevalence of symptoms increased with age. It also found a correlation between deprivation and the risk of developing Long COVID. University College London and King's College London carried out a separate study which found that symptoms persisted long after the initial infection in one in six middle-aged people, falling to one in 13 among younger adults. A survey in Norway published in Nature magazine found that out of 312 patients, 61 percent had persistent symptoms after six months—including 52 percent of 16-30-year-olds. A brain imaging study conducted by the University of Oxford and Imperial College London found damage to brain tissue in COVID patients, suggesting a possible a predisposition to dementia and Alzheimer’s at a future date.
How Northern Ireland's 'Good Friday' agreement affects US-UK relations -In a dispute the British press calls “The Sausage War,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson has angered the European Union by unilaterally extending the “grace period” that covers the import of British chilled meats into Northern Ireland. This technical dispute is part of a more serious challenge to the Northern Ireland Protocol, a provision of the EU-UK “Brexit” agreement that maintains an open border with the Republic of Ireland. Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party sees more clearly now the implications of the protocol: the EU will control two-way trade with the United Kingdom. As reality has set in, Unionists see their relationship with Britain as being compromised and they have turned to widespread protest. One Unionist party leader said the protocol had a “wicked intent.” Before the referendum on Brexit, the first ministers of Northern Ireland — Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness and Democratic Unionist Party’s Arlene Foster — signed a joint letter to Europe, Dublin and London. Irish News columnist Tom Kelly said the letter pleaded that “… the equilibrium that exists within Northern Ireland and the right to unhindered free trade, east-west and north-south” be protected. Now Foster has been forced to resign as first minister and leader of the DUP as Unionist antipathy to the protocol has grown. Northern Ireland has managed to stay off the front pages for the past few decades as the conflict over sovereignty and religion was transformed by the 1998 “Good Friday “ agreement. In addition to opening the border, that agreement restored a degree of local autonomy and power-sharing between Republican and Unionist politicians. The agreement finessed the issue of the province’s constitutional status as a part of the United Kingdom by reaffirming it, unless and until a majority of voters favor changing it. Over the past 23 years, free trade and passage across the southern border has benefitted both sides and has been instrumental in keeping the peace. President Biden, meanwhile, has been firm in stating that the Good Friday agreement is sacrosanct and that if open borders are not maintained, the British government can forget a new trade agreement with the United States.
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