Another Fed Balance Sheet Record; Where's The Exit Door? --For months, the markets have anticipated the Fed tightening monetary policy in order to take on rising inflation.At the June FOMC meeting, the central bank even hinted that it might start raising interest rates in 2023 instead of 2024, and the central bankers apparently talked about talking about tapering their quantitative easing bond-buying program. But with all of this talk, the loose monetary policy driving inflation continues unabated. Interest rates remain pegged at zero. The Fed balance sheet sets new records week after week. Where exactly is the exit door?Today, markets eagerly await whatever pronouncements that come out of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting. Analysts and pundits in the financial media will scrutinize every punctuation mark in the FOMC statement and dissect every word that tumbles out of Jerome Powell’s mouth in the coming days. But it’s a near certainty the Fed won’t do anything. It won’t raise interest rates. And it will continue expanding its balance sheet at a torrid pace.As of July 21, the Fed balance sheet stood at a record $8.24 trillion. In the previous week, the central bank expanded the balance sheet by $39 billion. In July alone, the Fed has added $162 billion to its balance sheet. The Fed can talk about tapering all it wants. The markets can expect the Fed to give up its “transitory inflation” narrative and turn to tightening all they want. But the reality is extraordinary monetary policy continues unabated.And there’s no sign it will stop any time soon.
FOMC Preview: Probably Too Soon for Hints on Tapering --Expectations are there will be no change to rate policy when the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Analysts will be looking for any hints as to when the Fed will start to taper asset purchases, although it is probably too early - especially given possible economic downside risks due to the resurgence in COVID cases - for the Fed to drop hints on tapering this week. Here are some comments from Goldman Sachs economists on the timing of tapering:Fed officials have said that they intend to signal that tapering is coming “well in advance,” a phrase they also used in reference to the start of balance sheet runoff in 2017. That precedent suggests that “well in advance” means two meetings worth of hints before the formal announcement, consistent with our expectation of a first hint in September, a second hint in November, and a formal announcement of tapering in December.Analysts will also be looking for comments on inflation, although the Fed is probably not too concerned with inflation right now. Some of the recent increase in inflation was due to base effects (prices declined at the beginning of the pandemic), and some probably due to transitory effects related to supply bottlenecks. Note: No projections will be released at this meeting. However, for review, here are the June FOMC projections.Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase at a 8.6% annual rate in Q2 (to be released this coming Thursday). This is lower than most forecasts when the Fed last met in June. So the FOMC projections for 2021 may now be a little on the high side compared to Wall Street.GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP: Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. The unemployment rate was at 5.9% in June. Note that the unemployment rate doesn't remotely capture the economic damage to the labor market. Not only are there 3.7 million more people currently unemployed than prior to the pandemic, over 3.4 million people have left the labor force since February 2020. And millions more are being supported by various provisions of the disaster relief acts. Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. The decline in the unemployment rate depends on both job growth, and the participation rate. A strong labor market will probably encourage people to return to the labor force, and the improvements in the unemployment rate might be slower than some expect. As of May 2021, PCE inflation was up 3.9% from May 2020. Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation: PCE core inflation was up 3.4% in May year-over-year.
FOMC Admits Economy's "Made Progress" Towards Taper Goals -Since the last FOMC statement (June 16th), there is one big loser - gold (although, as the chart shows, all of that loss was 'engineered' the day after The Fed). The dollar, bonds, and stocks are all higher with bonds best... Over the same period, the market's expectations for Fed action have surged hawkishly and tumbled dovishly most recently, leaving them basically unchanged since the last FOMC statement... The Fed started by admitting hawkishly that they had made progress towards goals laid out to taper (of "substantial further progress"), and enacted a permanent backstop for money markets (with a permanent domestic and foreign repo facility).Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month untilsubstantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals.Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetingsThey did given themselves an excuse to wait:"The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered "On inflation, still transitory:“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”Notably, with regard to the "delta" variant, the statement sounded a bit hawkish because it didn’t highlight the resurgence of the delta variant. It said:“The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus.”In comparison, the June statement read:“The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.”The Fed also removed this line entirely..."Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the United States"
FOMC Statement: No Policy Change; Economy has "made progress" -Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses. The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Fed Launches Foreign, Domestic Standing Repo Facilities --As was heavily hinted at in the June FOMC Minutes, moments ago in addition to its slightly dovish FOMC statement, the NY Fed unveiled that at long last it was establishing two standing repo facilities: one for domestic counterparties, and one for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA repo facility).The domestic Standing Repo Facility will have a minimum bid rate of 0.25 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion, and will be cleared and settled on the tri-party repo platform. This is largely a replica of the existing repo facility.More importantly, the Fed is also launching an foreign overnight repo facility which will offer overnight repo at a rate of 0.25% to foreign central bank and international accounts against their holdings of Treasury securities maintained in custody at the New York Fed, subject to a per-counterparty limit of $60 billion.As the NY Fed adds, these facilities will serve as backstops in money markets to support the effective implementation of monetary policy and smooth market functioning. In other words, going forward any institutions that face a funding shortage can pledge whatever collateral they have with the Fed and receive liquidity instantly. This should substantially eliminate the risk of significant dollar funding crises in the future.More details from the New York Fed: Under the SRF, the FOMC directed the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to conduct overnight repo operations with a minimum bid rate of 0.25 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion, effective July 29, 2021. As with the Desk’s existing repo operations, the SRF will be cleared and settled on the tri-party repo platform. Treasury, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities will continue to be accepted. All other terms will be the same as the existing overnight repo operations. Primary dealers will continue to be counterparties for repo operations under the SRF. The SRF counterparties will be expanded to include additional depository institutions. Initially, criteria will be established to effectively manage onboarding of interested depository institutions. Consistent with the New York Fed’s commitment to ensuring its counterparty policies promote a fair and competitive marketplace, these criteria will be adjusted over time to expand depository institution eligibility. The initial criteria will allow depository institutions with holdings of Treasury, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities greater than $5 billion as of June 30, 2021 or with total assets greater than $30 billion to express interest starting on October 1, 2021. All counterparties must be able to transact on the tri-party repo platform.
The Fed Announces Plans to Permanently Backstop Wall Street with a Standing Repo Loan Facility of $500 Billion…Starting Tomorrow - By Pam Martens -You really can’t make this stuff up. A G30 Working Group Chaired by Tim Geithner, the former President of the New York Fed, that secretly sluiced $29 trillion to bail out the Wall Street banks from their hubristic collapse in 2008, released a report today calling for a Standing Repo Facility from the Fed that would be “open to a broad range of market participants….”The ink was barely dry on that report when the Fedissued a press release today saying it was doing just that. The Standing Repo Facility (effectively meaning that it is permanent until the Fed says otherwise) will be able to lend out $500 billion in overnight loans each day at below-market interest rates. If the $500 billion runs out, Fed Chair Jerome Powellhas the discretion to increase it. The repo operations will be conducted by the Open Market Desk of the New York Fed – which means that the names of the banks getting the loans will never see the light of day, unless a media powerhouse decides to stand up for democracy and transparency and take the Fed to Court.The cringe-worthy name of Geithner is enhanced by two other cringe-worthy members of the Working Group: Larry Summers, who helped repeal the Glass-Steagall Act so that Frankenbanks on Wall Street could hold trillions of dollars of risky derivatives alongside trillions of dollars of taxpayer-backstopped deposits from moms and pops; and Bill Dudley, another former President of the New York Fed whose wife collected $190,000 a year from JPMorgan Chase, while it was “supervised” by the New York Fed.Unlike the Federal Reserve Board, the New York Fed is not a federal agency. It is privately owned by the mega banks on Wall Street. See These Are the Banks that Own the New York Fed and Its Money Button.To spin the appearance that this isn’t just a bailout of the trading units of the mega banks on Wall Street (the so-called “Primary Dealers” who are already approved counterparties for the Fed’s repo operations), the Fed announced that the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) will be expanded to other financial institutions. The New York Fed clarified that as follows: “Primary dealers will continue to be counterparties for repo operations under the SRF. The SRF counterparties will be expanded to include additional depository institutions. Initially, criteria will be established to effectively manage onboarding of interested depository institutions. Consistent with the New York Fed’s commitment to ensuring its counterparty policies promote a fair and competitive marketplace, these criteria will be adjusted over time to expand depository institution eligibility. The initial criteria will allow depository institutions with holdings of Treasury, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities greater than $5 billion as of June 30, 2021 or with total assets greater than $30 billion to express interest starting on October 1, 2021. All counterparties must be able to transact on the tri-party repo platform.”The Fed also announced that it is creating a standing repo facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA). The New York Fed explained that facility as follows: The Fed seems to be sensing some urgency to standing up these permanent new facilities. The domestic repo facility, loaded with $500 billion, is to become effective tomorrow.
Fed maintains money flow to Wall Street - The US Federal Reserve has kept its base interest rate at near zero and maintained its asset purchases at the rate of $120 billion a month. That decision, announced yesterday after a two-day meeting of its policy-making committee, was expected. But in response to concerns by some members of the Fed’s governing body that the present sharp rise in inflation may prove to be permanent rather than a “transitory” effect of economic recovery from the pandemic, the official statement from the meeting hinted that “tapering” of its bond purchases may be closer than previously thought. Last December, the Fed said its asset purchases would continue until “substantial further progress” had been made toward its goals—full employment and 2 percent inflation. “Since then,” the statement said, “the economy has made progress towards these goals, and the committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.” This was widely interpreted as a signal that it was at least moving to a closer consideration of a wind-back in asset purchases. But Fed chair Jerome Powell, who has been characterised as occupying a centre position between the so-called doves and hawks within the governing body, made clear there were no immediate plans to withdraw the unprecedented levels of support the central bank has provided to financial markets and Wall Street. Despite the Fed’s claim that the US economy is on the road to recovery there are significant contradictory signals. While inflation is rising, along with economic growth, the yields on Treasury bonds have been falling—an indication that financial markets consider growth could stall, if not develop into a recession. Asked about the divergence between the economic growth outlook and the bond market at his press conference, Powell could offer no explanation apart from saying that it may be due to “technical” factors “where you put things you can’t quite explain.” The fall in bond yields, a result of increased demand and rise in their price (the two move in opposite directions), has been significant. In an interview on CNN Financial Times columnist and editorial board member Rana Foroohar said in her 30 years in finance journalism she had never seen so many variables—from the effect of the Delta variant, inflation, to lower growth in China—impacting on the global economic outlook. Apart from the continuing stimulus for Wall Street, another significant decision by the Fed was to establish a new facility to provide liquidity to big Wall Street banks as well as foreign central banks in times of financial turbulence. Under the facility, the Fed would enter overnight repurchase (repo) agreements in which it would take in Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities in return for cash at a rate of 0.25 percent. There would be a daily cap on the facility of $500 billion. A similar facility would be extended to foreign central banks with a daily limit of $60 billion. The facility may also be expanded in the future to include deposit-taking banks. The new facility has been developed in response to the financial market crisis of March 2020 when the $21 trillion US Treasury market—the bedrock of US and global financial system—effectively froze in what was dubbed a “dash for cash” as buyers for Treasury debt disappeared. The measure has been under discussion for some time as the Fed continues to try to assess what took place in the March crisis. New York Fed chief John Williams said earlier this month that a standing repo facility would not be used much in normal times but if there was an “unanticipated shock” it would keep short-term interest rates from spiking. Its establishment indicates that another crisis on the scale of March 2020 could take place because none of the underlying problems and contradictions that gave rise to it have been resolved.
PCE Price Index Overshooting … or Undershooting -Menzie Chinn - William Luther at AIER asks “Is Inflation Merely Catching Up?“: …it is simply not the case that the observed inflation has merely been what was required for catching up. The price level today is greater than what it was expected to be in the absence of a pandemic and what the Fed implicitly said it would be given its two-percent inflation target. The price level has more than caught up with expectations. The question, now, is whether it will continue to grow so rapidly, remain elevated, or subside. In other words, his answer to the question posed in the title is “no”. Whether it has pernicious effects depends on how persistent inflation is relative to expected. I have graphed the data for the PCE price index, the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast as of 7/26, and WSJ July forecast against the 2015M01-2021M01 trend Dr. Luther cites, as well as the 2% trend. Figure 1: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price deflator (black), Cleveland Fed nowcast (gray line), WSJ survey mean (teal line), 2015M01-20M01 trend (light blue), 2% trend from 2020M01 (pink), all 2012=100, on log scale. Source: BEA, Cleveland Fed (accessed 7/26), WSJ July survey, and author’s calculations.Using Dr. Luther’s trend it seems clear that the PCE price index has overshot as of today, if the Cleveland Fed’s nowcasts are accepted. With inflation persistently higher than 2% (as indicated in the WSJ’s July survey of economists), then the price level continues to diverge from trend.As of July, the price level would be 1.3% above trend; and 1.5% by November 2023 (in log terms). Useful to compare with the fact that in April and May of 2020, the index was 1.2% below trend. Back in January of 2012, Jeffry Frieden and I called for conditional inflation now! at 4%-6% for several years. That call (if for 2%) implies the following: Figure 2: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price deflator (black), Cleveland Fed nowcast (gray line), WSJ survey mean (teal line), 2% trend from 2020M01 (pink), 2% trend from 2012M01 (red), all 2012=100, on log scale. Source: BEA, Cleveland Fed (accessed 7/26), WSJ July survey, and author’s calculations.From that perspective, we have a lot of catching up to do. As of July, the price level would be 3.4% below trend; and 3.3% by November 2023.Which one is the right comparison? Luther is right to interpret the shock as coming with the pandemic in early 2020. Moreover, Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) can be dated as being effective in January 2020, so another reason to make that comparison. On the other hand, if we have been thinking trying to redress overly slow price inflation over the past decade in the wake of the Great Recession, then the calculations in Figure 2 are in some sense more appropriate.
PCE Price Index: June Core at 3.5% YoY - The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for June was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.51% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 3.99% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE is now at 3.54%, above the Fed's 2% target rate. Revisions were made.The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017, 2019, and 2020. The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. Most recently, the Fed reviewed their monetary policy strategy and longer-term goals and released a statement, mentioning its federal mandate to promote "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". They also confirmed their commitment to using the two percent benchmark as a lower limit:
BEA: Real GDP increased at 6.5% Annualized Rate in Q2 -From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.5 percent in the second quarter of 2021, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent (revised). ...The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The advance Q2 GDP report, with 6.5% annualized growth, was well below expectations.
U.S. GDP rose 6.5% last quarter, well below expectations - The U.S. economy rose at a disappointing rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in a sign that the U.S. has escaped the shackles of the Covid-19 pandemic but still has more work to do. Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced during the April-to-June period, accelerated 6.5% on an annualized basis. That was slightly better than the 6.3% gain in the first quarter, which was revised down narrowly. While that would have been strong prior to the pandemic, the gain was considerably less than the 8.4% Dow Jones estimate. Gross private domestic investment fell 3.5% as declines in private inventory and residential investment held back gains. Rising imports and a 5% decline in the rate of federal government spending, despite the ballooning budget deficit, also were factors, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report said. The overall increase came thanks to increasing personal expenditures, which rose 11.8% as consumers accounted for 69% of all activity. Nonresidential fixed investment, exports and state and local government spending also helped boost output. The personal savings rate dropped sharply, tumbling to $1.97 trillion from $4.1 trillion in the previous period. The headline gain was a yardstick for how far the economy has come from the shutdowns imposed during the early days of the pandemic, when governments across the country halted large swaths of economic activity to combat Covid. At its nadir, the economy collapsed 31.4% in the second quarter of 2020; it bounced back 33.4% in the subsequent three-month period and has continued to push toward normal since. In the years prior to the pandemic, the Q2 gain would have been the strongest since the third quarter of 2003. Though output has remained below its pre-pandemic level, the National Bureau of Economic Research pronounced the recession that began in February 2020 to have ended just two months later, the shortest on record. However, the second quarter is likely to be the high point of the pandemic recovery. "The good news is that the economy has now surpassed its pre-pandemic level," wrote Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. "But with the impact from the fiscal stimulus waning, surging prices weakening purchasing power, the delta variant running amok in the south and the saving rate lower than we thought, we expect GDP growth to slow to 3.5% annualized in the second half of this year." Still, areas of the economy remain underwater as the labor market in particular has struggled to get back to normal. In a separate report Thursday, the Labor Department said 400,000 people filed initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended July 24. That level is nearly double the pre-pandemic norm and was above the 380,000 Dow Jones estimate. However, it was a decrease from the previous week's 424,000.
GDP Rises 6.5 Percent in Second Quarter, Passed Pre-Pandemic Level of Output By Dean Baker -The economy grew at a 6.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter. This put GDP 0.8 percent above its last pre-pandemic quarter but still leaves it roughly 2.2 percent below its pre-pandemic trend.While the growth for the quarter was somewhat lower than had generally been expected, it would still likely imply strong productivity growth for the quarter. With the increase in hours worked likely to come in near 4.0 percent, the GDP figure would imply productivity growth near 2.5 percent. This is lower than the 4.1 percent rate from the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021 but far above the 1.0 percent annual rate in the decade preceding the pandemic. If this sort of uptick in productivity growth could be sustained, it makes it unlikely that inflation would be a problem in the years ahead. This release included revised data for 2019 and 2020, as well as the first quarter of 2021. While revisions are often large and can reverse the story in the unrevised data, the revisions still show that profit share of corporate income falling from 2015 to 2020, with the 2020 share being the lowest since 2009. The revised data show a sharp uptick in profit shares from the 2020 average of 23.9 percent to 25.5 percent in the first quarter of 2021.The quarterly data are erratic and subject to large revisions, so the first-quarter data has to be viewed with caution. (The profit data for the second quarter will not be available until the preliminary GDP report is released in August.) However, a rise in profit shares is inconsistent with the story of employers being squeezed by rapidly rising wages resulting from a labor shortage.The saving rate continued to be very high in the second quarter. This is worth noting because it is after most of the pandemic checks were already sent. If people are going to spend large portions of the savings accumulated during the pandemic, then we should be seeing saving rates well below the pre-pandemic average. At least through the second quarter, this does not seem to be the case, meaning that this source of potential inflationary pressure is not currently a problem.Spending on services was the major factor driving second quarter growth, rising at a 12.0 percent annual rate and adding 5.1 percentage points to the quarter’s growth. Restaurants were the biggest factor in this growth adding 2.2 percentage points to GDP. Spending on recreation services added 0.8 percentage points to growth. Spending on goods also rose rapidly with spending on durable goods rising at a 9.9 percent rate and spending on nondurables rising at a 12.6 percent rate. This spending added 0.9 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points to growth, respectively. Even with the strong second-quarter growth, spending on consumer services was still 3.3 percent below the pre-pandemic level. By contrast, spending on durables (largely cars) was 28.6 percent higher, while spending on nondurables was 11.9 percent higher. It is likely that we will see weak growth in durable goods spending going forward, while services still have room for rapid growth.
An Inside Look at the GDP Q2 Advance Estimate The chart below is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.5 percent in the second quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analy sis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent (revised). The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 26, 2021.Let's take a closer look at the contributions of GDP of the four major subcomponents. The data source for this chart is the Excel file accompanying the BEA's latest GDP news release (see the links in the right column). Specifically, it uses Table 2: Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product. Here is a chart of the latest estimates. Over the time frame of this chart, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) component has shown the most consistent correlation with real GDP itself. When PCE has been positive, GDP has usually been positive, and vice versa. In the latest GDP data, the contribution of PCE came at 7.78 of the 6.5 real GDP, an increase from the previous revision. Gross Private Domestic Investment was a positive contributor. Net Exports were negative in Q1. Government Consumption Expenditures also came in as a negative contributor. As for the role of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in GDP and how it has increased over time, here is a snapshot of the PCE-to-GDP ratio since the inception of quarterly GDP in 1947. To one decimal place, the latest ratio of 70.0% is at its record high and above the levels seen during the last recession.Let's close with a look at the inverse behavior of three of the GPDI components during recessions. PCE and especially GC generally increase as a percent of GDP whereas GPDI declines. Note the three with different vertical axes (Personal Consumption Expenditures on the left, Gross Private Domestic Investment and Government Consumption on the right) to highlight the frequent inverse correlations.
A Few Comments on Q2 GDP --Earlier from the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual UpdateReal gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.5 percent in the second quarter of 2021, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent (revised).On a Q2-over-Q2 basis, GDP was up 16.7% (Q2 2020 was the depth of pandemic recession). This graph shows the percent decline in real GDP from the previous peak (the previous peak was in Q4 2019).This graph is through Q1 2022, and real GDP is now at a new peak; 0.8% above the previous peak.The advance Q2 GDP report, at 6.5% annualized, was below expectations, due to several factors - a decline in private inventories, a decline in residential investment, a decline in government expenditures and a negative contribution from trade.Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 11.8% annualized rate in Q2, due, in part, to the American Rescue Plan Act.The second graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.Of course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern doesn't apply.The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories.
Residential investment (RI) decreased at a 9.8% annual rate in Q2. Equipment investment increased at a 13.0% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 7.0% annual rate (after getting crushed over the previous year).. The contribution to Q2 GDP from investment in private inventories was -1.13 percentage points (this will likely be a positive in the second half of 2021).On a 3 quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is still up solidly, equipment (green) is up sharply, and nonresidential structures (blue) is still down.The third graph shows residential investment as a percent of GDP.Residential Investment as a percent of GDP decreased in Q2, after increasing sharply for several quarters. I'll break down Residential Investment into components after the GDP details are released. Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories.The fourth graph shows non-residential investment in structures, equipment and "intellectual property products". Investment in non-residential structures declined in Q2 as a percent GDP, and will probably be weak for some time (hotel occupancy is still low, office and mall vacancy rates are high).
Business Cycle Indicators for End-July 2021 - Consumption, personal income and St. Louis Fed’s real manufacturing and trade industry sales were released today. The July employment situation will be released next Friday. This is the picture today.
- Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from June release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 7/30 for July nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Personal income excluding current transfers growth has stalled out. Relative to the NBER peak in 2020M02, employment continues to be the laggard, down 4.5% (log terms). If nonfarm payroll (NFP) in July rises as forecasted by Bloomberg consensus by 900K, it’ll still be down by 3.9%. Manufacturing and trade industry sales declined as suggested by retail sales ex-food services (as noted in this post from mid-July).
- Figure 2: Retail sales excluding food services, in 1982-84$ (teal), manufacturing and trade sales in bn. 2012$ SAAR (black), both in logs, 2020M02=0. Retail sales ex-food deflated using CPI-all. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Continued, albeit slower, decline in June is implied (a regression of growth in manufacturing trade sales on growth in retail sales 2019-2021 yields an adjusted-R2 of about 0.84). Retail sales provided little information on the June change in consumption, as shown below.
- Figure 3: Retail sales and food services, in 1982-84$ (teal), consumption, in2012$ SAAR (light blue), both in logs 2020M02=0. Retail sales using CPI-all. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. The personal income and outlays release also provided information regarding inflation.
- Figure 4: Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation (blue), PCE core inflation (orange), PCE trimmed mean (green), CPI-all inflation (red), all month-on-month annualized. Source: BEA, Dallas Fed, BLS via FRED and author’s calculations.PCE inflation of 6.3% was considerably less than CPI inflation of 11.4% — and less than Chained CPI inflation of 10.9%. That June reading was also less than April’s reading of 7.2%; unfortunately, the trimmed mean inflation rose from 4.8% to 5.7% — so inflationary pressures do exist.The level of the PCE price index has risen and exceeded the trend defined by 2% from January 2020.
- Figure 5: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price deflator (black), Cleveland Fed nowcast (gray line), WSJ survey mean (teal line), 2015M01-20M01 trend (light blue), 2% trend from 2020M01 (pink), all 2012=100, on log scale. It might not be obvious in the graph, but the 1.1% gap between June actual and trend is the same in absolute value as the -1.1% gap in April and May of 2020.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of July 25th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 21.3% from the same day in 2019 (78.7% of 2019). (Dashed line) The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through July 24th, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Dining is generally picking up, but was down 6% in the US (7-day average compared to 2019). Florida and Texas are above 2019 levels. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 22nd. Movie ticket sales were at $132 million last week, down about 52% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid. This data is through July 17th. The occupancy rate is down 8.7% compared to the same week in 2019. Note: Occupancy was up year-over-year, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. However, the 4-week average occupancy is still down from normal levels. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of July 16th, gasoline supplied was down 3.9% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been 3 weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through July 23rd for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 101% of the January 2020 level. Strangely, New York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph). I'd put much more weight on subway usage! Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are over 12 million subway turnstile entries per week - and generally increasing.This data is through Friday, July 23rd. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
2-year and 10-year Treasurys in July book largest monthly yield drop since March of 2020 - Data on Friday showed that Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose sharply in June. Treasury yields ended lower on Friday, with the 2- and 10-year rates notching their biggest one-month drops in over a year, as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose sharply in June, but by less than forecasters had expected.The session marked the final trading day in July, which has seen long-dated debt yields fall to around five-month lows. Meanwhile, equities finished lower Friday, after hitting record highs earlier this week, amid a spike in new virus cases sparked by the spread of COVID-19's delta variant (link). The Federal Reserve's preferred U.S. inflation measure (link) rose sharply again in June and the increase over the past year remained at a 13-year high, raising the cost of living for consumers and casting a shadow over a strong economic recovery.The so-called personal-consumption expenditures index rose 0.5% in June, government figures show. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected the Commerce Department to report that PCE, a measure of household spending on goods and services, increased 0.7% last month. It was the fourth big upturn in a row and kept the increase over the past 12 months at 4%.A separate measure of inflation that strips out volatile food and energy prices climbed to the highest level since 1992. The core PCE price index rose 0.4% in June, and its increase over the past 12 months crept up to 3.5% from 3.4%. Central bankers regard the core measure as a better indicator of underlying inflation.One Fed official, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (link), said the central bank should start to slow down its bond purchases this fall and finish by March. He expects GDP growth to be stronger in the second half and some of the surge of inflation this year to last into 2022. In a speech to European Economics and Financial Centre on Friday, Bullard said that he thought financial markets "are very well prepared" for the reduction in purchases.Meanwhile, the most comprehensive gauge of the rise in labor costs decelerated in the second quarter. The employment cost index (link) rose 0.7% in the second quarter, after rising 0.9% in the January-March quarter, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.9% increase.In other data released Friday, a measure of business conditions in the Chicago region -- known as the Chicago Business Barometer (link) -- rose to 73.4 this month from 66.1 in June, showing the area's economy is surging. And consumer sentiment (link) fell in July as inflation expectations hit the highest level in more than a decade, according to a University of Michigan survey.The data come after a reading of second-quarter U.S. gross domestic grew at a 6.5% annualized rate (link), with consumer spending (link) climbing sharply at an 11.8% annual rate.
The United States suspended its debt ceiling in 2019. That ends this weekend. - The Treasury Department runs into an important deadline this weekend, when a 2019 suspension of the government's debt limit — known as the debt ceiling — expires Saturday. That forces the Treasury Department to perform what are called "extraordinary measures" so the government can continue paying its obligations as lawmakers prepare to face off over the issue moving forward. The debt ceiling is the amount the Treasury can borrow on behalf of the public. Raising or suspending that borrowing limit does not dictate how much money the government spends, but allows the U.S. to pay what has already been approved. The debt ceiling was suspended in 2019 under President Donald Trump. On Friday, the Treasury Department started taking its "extraordinary measures" ahead of the looming deadline and warned congressional leaders in a recent letter that the Treasury will need to start taking additional steps starting Monday to keep the U.S. from defaulting on its obligations if congressional action was not taken. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said failure to meet its obligations would cause "irreparable harm" to the U.S. economy. The U.S. has never defaulted on its debt, a situation unwelcome to lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle. But heading into the weekend, no actions appeared to be on the near horizon to address the issue — but a hard deadline to take action isn't clear. In addition to its "extraordinary measures," the Treasury Department said earlier this year it would have $450 billion in cash on hand starting next month. Last week, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the government would probably run out of cash to pay its bills starting this fall, likely in October or November, echoing an early projection by the Bipartisan Policy Center of the so-called "X date" coming some time this fall. But as the U.S. heads toward another deadline, there is the additional uncertainty of the coronavirus, one that has not factored into previous debt limit debates. In the past, raising or suspending the debt ceiling had taken place with bipartisan support. Most recently, the 2019 bill suspending the debt ceiling passed before lawmakers headed out on recess, with a number of Senate Democrats joining Republicans in the majority to pass the bill 67 to 28. Last week, now Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell suggested putting a debt limit provision in the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill Senate Democrats are working on, telling Punchbowl News he doesn't expect a single Republican to vote to raise it. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer pointed out Democrats joined Republicans three times during the Trump administration to raise the ceiling, calling it "Trump debt."
Janet Yellen says Treasury is prepared to pay the US's bills to prevent 'irreparable harm' to the economy as the GOP balks at raising the debt ceiling - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to Congress on Friday, urging lawmakers to renew the federal government's ability to pay off its debt ahead of a major deadline, warning that failing to do so in a timely manner risked major damage for average people and the economic recovery.Republicans led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have balked at raising the debt limit without ensuring spending cuts from Democrats. He suggested earlier this week that Democrats would have to do it on their own with no GOP support.In the letter, Yellen said the US would hit its statutory debt limit on August 1. The next day, she said, Treasury is prepared to take "certain additional extraordinary measures" to pay the country's outstanding bills and prevent a default that could ripple through the global economy."Failure to meet those obligations would cause irreparable harm to the U.S. economy and the livelihoods of all Americans," Yellen wrote to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. She noted that raising the debt ceiling doesn't prompt more federal spending, it only authorizes the government to pay what it already owes.Yellen underscored the damage that even the threat of a default could have on the economy. She cited a 2011 showdown between President Barack Obama and House Republicans that led to the first-ever credit downgrade of US debt. Yellen also said it was hard to predict when Treasury would exhaust its ability to pay off the US's bills on its own.On Wednesday, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Officeforecast that the department would run out of cash sometime in October or November.Republican opposition is hardening now that President Joe Biden sits in the White House. In July 2019, Republicans voted to suspend the borrowing limit for two years under President Donald Trump. A default from the federal government could precipitate a chain reaction of cash shortages, starting with US bondholders including people, businesses, and foreign governments. Democrats insisted this week that they wouldn't allow the GOP to use the debt ceiling as a political weapon.
Treasury to Start Special Measures to Avoid Breaching Debt Limit - The Treasury Department is set to begin dipping into its toolkit to avoid breaching the US debt limit, as Congress still lacks a clear plan to avert a default later this year. At noon Friday in Washington, the Treasury will use its so-called “extraordinary measures”: suspending the sale of securities that help states and municipalities invest bond proceeds, a letter to Secretary Janet Yellen said last week. sent to Congress. The loan limit – which has been on hold for two years and represents the total amount that lawmakers have allowed the government to borrow – will be reinstated on Sunday. If Congress does not raise or suspend the limit again, the Treasury will be forced to take more special measures to prevent default. The ceiling, which was last set at $22 trillion in 2019, will adjust the current level of debt when the suspension ends. “While this practice has become routine and expected and somewhat common, it does not mean that it is without cost or without consequences,” said Shai Akbas, director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. A default is “extraordinarily impossible”, but the scenarios are “a bit unpredictable because they are subject to the day’s political winds. It could take us to the last minute,” he said. With no Congress action imminent, the focus will be on September, after MPs return from their August recess. His exact deadline for averting the default is unclear, with Yellen warning that it could come soon after his return, while the Congressional Budget Office estimates the Treasury could stall sometime in October or November.
GOP sees debt ceiling as its leverage against Biden Senate Republicans plan to demand big spending reforms in exchange for their support of legislation to raise the nation’s debt ceiling, seeking leverage to rein in President Biden’s plan to pump trillions of dollars into the economy. GOP senators are reviving demands they made in 2011, the last time there was a political standoff over raising the debt limit, but it’s a risky move. The 2011 debt limit was solved at the last moment, and a subsequent downgrading of the nation’s creditworthiness by S&P triggered a stock market crash. The issue is coming to a head, as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Friday that the debt limit will likely have to be raised by the end of September and urged Congress to do so under regular order, which means finding at least 10 Republican votes to support it in the Senate. If Republicans can get spending reforms attached to the debt limit increase, they want to force Democrats to jam debt limit legislation in a budget reconciliation bill that is expected to pass without any GOP support. They don’t want to vote for anything that could give them some shared responsibility for the nation’s $29 trillion debt. But Democrats, who are falling behind schedule on their two-track strategy for passing infrastructure legislation, will have a hard time wrapping up work on a reconciliation package by October. Republican senators are calling for major spending reductions over the next 10 years in exchange for raising the federal government’s borrowing authority. They’re also pushing for the establishment of special commissions to curb the long-term growth of Social Security and Medicare. “I’m all for spending caps, especially on nondefense domestic discretionary spending,” said Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) when asked about legislation to raise the debt limit. “If they had a realistic way of getting a BCA-type approach to it, that would be great,” he said, referring to the Budget Control Act, which Congress passed in 2011 after a bitter fight over the debt limit. That deal from 10 years ago established discretionary spending limits over a 10-year period as well as automatic across-the-board spending reductions of certain spending programs. “A lot of our guys would like to see the government shutdown [legislation] attached. There’s the Romney Trust bill, which creates a commission to do entitlement reform. There are a number of budget reforms that our members I think would be supportive in the context of a vote on the debt limit,” Thune added. He was referring to legislation sponsored by Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and other Republicans that would prevent future government shutdowns by creating an automatic continuing resolution to keep federal departments and agencies operating if Congress can’t agree on spending bills.
Biden’s new bill a ‘grab bag’ of social infrastructure | PBS NewsHour (video & transcript) Six months into Biden's presidency, he's facing numerous challenges: a resurgence of COVID-19, mainly among the unvaccinated, a nation still highly polarized, and a battle to get both a bipartisan infrastructure bill, and a highly ambitious, democrats-only package of social programs through Congress. First is the bipartisan infrastructure bill that would provide about $600 billion in new money for roads, bridges, rail, rural broadband, so-called hard infrastructure. That's the bill that a number of Republicans in principle have said they'd like to support. The other one is a much more ambitious $3.5 trillion Democrats only bill that provides for social spending from pre-K to two years of free community college, vastly expanded Medicare for dental and vision services, help for child care, help for seniors. And there's not a single Republican in the Senate who will support it. So you need every Democrat. And then Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker. So those are the two bills that are that are making their way or not through the process.NewsHour Weekend special correspondent Jeff Greenfield joins from Santa Barbara to discuss.
84 mayors call for immigration to be included in reconciliation - A group of mayors from cities in 28 states called on President Biden, Vice President Harris and Democratic leaders in Congress to include immigration provisions in a budget package to be passed through reconciliation. The 84 mayors represent cities throughout the country, including the nation's four largest in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston. Mayors from smaller cities such as Boise, Idaho, and Grand Rapids, Mich., also signed the letter. "We, the undersigned mayors, respectfully request that you prioritize the inclusion of a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers, Temporary Protected Status (TPS) holders, essential workers, and their families in any economic recovery legislation including through budget reconciliation," wrote the mayors in a letter first reviewed by The Hill. The mayors' request comes as Democrats grapple with the possibility of including a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants in the budget deal. The biggest question is whether the Senate parliamentarian will rule that legalizations have enough of a budget impact to qualify for reconciliation, a budget procedure that would sidestep a potential Republican filibuster. While it is a certainty that Democrats will use reconciliation as a maneuver to pass an expansive budget with provisions that haven't made it into bipartisan infrastructure negotiations, it's less certain which immigration provisions will fit into the bill. Almost all immigration proposals include Dreamers — undocumented immigrants who arrived in the country as minors — and TPS beneficiaries, but there is discussion among immigration advocates whether the best path to expand the number of legalizations includes essential workers, farm workers, or their family members. The mayors chose to include essential workers and their families in their request, a wording that would likely deliver the greatest number of legalizations. "As mayors we see every day the devastation that immigration uncertainty has on the entire family unit. The hesitancy of taking children to their doctors appointments or during this last year of getting tested or vaccinated for COVID," said Oakland, Calif. Mayor Libby Schaaf. "We know that providing this citizenship pathway is estimated to boost the GDP of our country by $1.5 trillion over 10 years. And we will not enjoy this economic prosperity unless we are providing that sense of security for the entire family," added Schaaf. Depending on who qualifies and how the categories are phrased in the final bill, the process could grant a path to citizenship for anywhere between 5 million and 10 million people. Barring impediment from the parliamentarian, inclusion of immigration provisions is gathering steam among Democrats.
Senate infrastructure talks on shaky grounds --A bipartisan Senate infrastructure group is struggling to break an entrenched stalemate over the final details of their $1.2 trillion proposal, sparking an increasingly public blame game between Democrats and Republicans. The bipartisan group had hoped to return to Washington on Monday with a final agreement in order to quickly start debate on the Senate floor. Instead, the talks appear to be on shaky grounds, with each side accusing the other of moving the goalposts. A Democratic source close to the talks said on Monday morning that Democratic negotiators and the White House had made a "global offer" to Republicans on Sunday night that would have addressed a number of unresolved issues. But Republicans appear to be rejecting that offer, arguing that it goes back on details that had already been agreed to by the bipartisan group during their weeks of closed-door negotiations. “The ‘global offer’ we received from the White House and Chuck Schumer was discouraging since it attempts to reopen numerous issues the bipartisan group had already agreed to," said a GOP source familiar with the talks. “If this is going to be successful, the White House will need to show more flexibility as Republicans have done and listen to the members of the group that produced this framework," the source added. The back-and-forth is a U-turn from just Sunday, when Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) both predicted that the deal was largely in hand and could be ready to go by this week. Portman said during an interview with ABC News that they were "about 90 percent of the way there," while Warner suggested to Fox News that the group could be ready to go on Monday. And 11 GOP senators previously wrote to Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) late last week indicating that they could be ready to start debate as soon as Monday. Now the group appears nearly certain to miss that goal amid rising tensions and fresh questions about if the talks could collapse altogether. The core group of 10 Senate negotiators, including Portman and Warner, are expected to meet again on Monday to try to break the stalemate.
Infrastructure bill on the rocks, as GOP rejects Dem compromise --Bipartisan infrastructure negotiations have hit another roadblock, as Senate Democrats continue to work on a backup plan for President Biden’s biggest legislative priority.CNN, Bloomberg and Politico were among the outlets reporting that a number of sticking points were outstanding after Republicans rejected a compromise proposal from the White House and Democratic negotiators. The two sides remain at an impasse on a number of issues, including funding for highways versus public transit, questions over broadband internet access and how the bill would be financed.Earlier this month, negotiators from both parties had said they expected this week to deliver the text of the legislation with its final details hammered out. That deadline now seems in peril ahead of the scheduled Aug. 9 recess, when lawmakers are due to return home.Democrats are continuing to attempt a two-track process to appease the ideological breadth of their party. The bipartisan bill that members of both parties have been negotiating for weeks in order to get moderates on board now appears to be in question. That bill would require 60 votes to move forward in the Senate, meaning that at least 10 Republicans would have to support it.The second part of the process would deliver on many of Biden’s campaign promises and White House priorities while appeasing the party’s progressives. A $3.5 trillion bill that included a number of climate measures would then be passed in the Senate through reconciliation, which would require only 50 Democratic votes. With just 50 members of the caucus, any single Democratic or independent senator who decided not to align with the Democrats could sink the bill, meaning that it must win the approval both of progressives like Senate Budget Chairman Bernie Sanders of Vermont and of moderates like Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. In an interview with ABC News on Sunday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirmed her position that she would not take up the bipartisan bill until the reconciliation bill had also passed. She said she was rooting for the infrastructure bill to pass and congratulated Biden and the negotiators on their work, but laid out why the second bill was necessary.“We say build back better with women,” Pelosi said. “That's why we need childcare. That’s why we need home health care funding. That’s why we need family and medical leave. So building the human infrastructure is really a part of building the physical infrastructure. So that’s why we will have something further to add. The deal is not as green as I would like it to be, the infrastructure bill … but nonetheless, I hope it will pass.”
Senators scramble to save infrastructure deal -The White House and senators from both parties are scrambling to pull their infrastructure talks back from the point of collapse, a sudden turnabout after key negotiators expressed confidence they were nearing a final deal. If the talks on the $1.2 billion framework fall apart, it would deal a serious blow to White House hopes of securing a bipartisan deal, an important political win for President Biden and moderate Democrats in the House and Senate. Several Republicans have also put their reputations on the line to get a deal. Senators and the White House were both trying to tamp down the doomsday predictions Monday evening amid finger-pointing on both sides. Sen. Rob Portman (Ohio), the lead GOP negotiator for the talks, told reporters early Monday evening that their coverage had been too pessimistic. “‘Oh, it’s terrible. Everything is falling apart,’” Portman said, offering his impression of how reporters are covering the negotiations. “[But] it’s good. We’re making progress. ... Somebody be a little positive. I mean, c’mon.” Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who had said earlier Monday that he thought the talks had slowed, appeared more optimistic after the Democratic negotiators met with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). “I feel bullish that it will be done by the morning,” Tester said, referring to Tuesday. “Is there still outstanding issues? Yeah. Nobody’s bailed.” The bipartisan group met on Monday evening to try to salvage the deal after an intense day of fighting appeared to put it on shaky grounds and seemed optimistic after their talk. The senators are expected to talk late into Monday night by phone. "Hell no. We're not pulling the plug," said Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) about the talks. "We're trying to get the best infrastructure bill, with bipartisan movement ... and we're hoping to get that done." Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said the group was "making good progress, and I'm confident that we're going to get to a deal. ... Our group here is seeing eye to eye." The White House and Biden positioned themselves as hopeful. Biden described himself as “optimistic,” while White House press secretary Jen Psaki described the talks as in the “end stages.” “We remain confident in reaching an agreement and we also remain interested in any Republican counteroffers,” she said. Some said the drama was typical of the last-minute wrangling that happens toward the end of negotiations, with all sides trying to use their leverage to get the best deal possible. Portman chalked up the hurdles to being “the way it goes” on big deals. While Portman on Monday said the deal was 90 percent done, multiple sources said the group faces a laundry list of unresolved issues. Besides funding for public transit, there are differences over money for broadband, highways and bridges; using unspent COVID-19 relief funds to help pay for the bipartisan deal; and Republicans wanting to waive federally mandated wage requirements for federally funded projects. 5 Actions for Sustainable Change: How to Accelerate the Circular Economy
Infrastructure-Bill Negotiators Try to Overcome Late Hurdles – WSJ —A push to complete a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure agreement hit a series of hurdles Monday, as aides squabbled over funding for water infrastructure and how to apply a requirement that federal contractors pay their employees a locally prevailing wage, among other issues.Lawmakers had previously set Monday as a target for closing out their talks and beginning floor consideration of the emerging agreement, though that timeline seemed to slip as the two sides sniped at each other.Democrats sent Republicans an offer Sunday night to try to resolve the remaining issues, which also include transit funding and repurposing Covid-19 aid for infrastructure, according to a Democratic aide familiar with the talks.Republican aides panned the offer on Monday, accusing Democrats of backtracking on parts of the agreement. Other aides familiar with the talks said negotiators were also still trying to figure out how to cover the cost of the spending with a mix of new revenue and savings measures.The core group of 10 senators who have spent weeks negotiating the details of the agreement—which they first unveiled last month at the White House with President Biden—met again Monday evening. Leaving the meeting, several of the lawmakers said that many of the final issues would be left to the White House counselor Steve Ricchetti and Sen. Rob Portman (R., Ohio). A GOP aide disputed that the negotiations were left to the two men. White House press secretary Jen Psaki cast the flare-up of disagreements in the talks as part of the process toward achieving an agreement. At stake is the fate of both the infrastructure plan—of which about $600 billion would be spending above projected federal levels if current programs continued—and President Biden’s broader goals on Capitol Hill. Top Democrats see the infrastructure bill as the first plank of approving much of Mr. Biden’s $4 trillion agenda and are hoping to follow it with a $3.5 trillion bill that they plan to advance through a budget process that avoids the 60-vote threshold necessary for most legislation in the Senate.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) has said he wants to approve the infrastructure deal and an outline of the $3.5 trillion bill before the Senate is set to leave town next month, creating a tight timetable to make progress on a variety of policy questions. An initial procedural vote on the infrastructure plan failed last week, as Republicans said they were unwilling to support the effort until they had completed the deal’s details. Mr. Schumer said lawmakers could work through the coming weekend to finish up the deal.The dispute around water infrastructure revolved around how to incorporate a $36-billion, Senate-passed water reauthorization bill into the deal, according to aides in both parties. Republicans charged Democrats with suddenly demanding more funds for water infrastructure, while Democrats said Republicans were abandoning a previous understanding on the issue.Negotiations on transit funding continued Monday, as Democrats sought a greater share of funding for public-transit systems than Republicans.
Sen. Joe Manchin on bipartisan infrastructure bill: 'everything could fall apart' if it fails -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) put his Democratic colleagues on notice Monday night, predicting they would not be able to pass a massive $3.5 trillion spending plan if attempts to piece together a bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure fail.“I would say that if a bipartisan infrastructure bill falls apart, everything could fall apart,” Manchin told reporters. “… Both of them are extremely important, but [if] one falls apart, how do you do the other one? How’s the other one become more important?”Lawmakers from both parties have struggled to iron out the final details of the $1.2 trillion package, the framework of which was announced by President Biden last month. Senators involved in negotiations had hoped to have a final bill completed early this week after Senate Republicans blocked a procedural vote last week on the unfinished legislation.Earlier Monday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) threatened to make senators work through this weekend to put a bill on the floor for a vote. “We have reached a critical moment,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. “The bipartisan group of Senators has had nearly five weeks of negotiations since they first announced an agreement with President Biden. It’s time for everyone to get to ‘yes’ and produce an outcome for the American people.”
infrastructure talks leave Biden's entire agenda at risk -- (AP) — President Joe Biden's latest leap into the Senate's up-and-down efforts to clinch a bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure deal comes with even more at stake than his coveted plans for boosting road, rail and other public works projects. The outcome of the infrastructure bargaining, which for weeks has encountered one snag after another, will impact what could be the crown jewel of his legacy. That would be his hopes for a subsequent $3.5 trillion federal infusion for families’ education and health care costs, a Medicare expansion and efforts to curb climate change. Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., will need support from every Democratic moderate and progressive to push the $3.5 trillion bill through the 50-50 Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote. If the infrastructure talks implode, it may be harder for moderates — who rank its projects as their top priority — to back the follow-up $3.5 trillion plan, which is already making them wince because of its price tag and likely tax boosts on the wealthy and corporations. “I would say that if the bipartisan infrastructure bill falls apart, everything falls apart,” West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, one of his chamber’s most conservative Democrats, warned reporters this week. That could well prove an overstatement, since moderates like him will face enormous pressure from Biden, Schumer and others to back the $3.5 trillion package, whatever the bipartisan plan's fate. But it illustrates a balancing act between centrists and progressives that top Democrats must confront. “If infrastructure collapses, which I hope it does not, you'd have the difficulty of holding some of the Democrats" to back the $3.5 trillion bill, No. 2 House leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said Tuesday in a brief interview. Party leaders will be able to lose no more than three Democrats to prevail in the 435-member House. Both sides in the talks were expressing renewed optimism Tuesday about prospects for a deal, a view they've expressed before without producing results. The uncertainty underscored that Democrats were at a promising yet precarious point for their agenda, with stakes that seem too big for them to fail yet failure still possible.
Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal Moves Forward In The Senate --Hours after bipartisan Senate negotiators reached a deal on an infrastructure package, the chamber voted to advance it, setting in motion a final vote on the bill in the coming days.The procedural motion was approved 67-32, with 17 Republicans joining all Democrats to begin legislative action. The top Senate GOP leader, Kentucky's Mitch McConnell, was among those voting to move ahead with the proposal. Earlier on Wednesday GOP Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio told reporters the group reached agreement on the major issues and was still working on legislative text. "We are prepared to move forward," Portman said after the Republicans working on the deal met with McConnell.Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who was leading talks for the 10 Democrats at the negotiating table, told reporters on Capitol Hill that "we are very excited to have a deal" and said that she had spoken with President Biden about it. Biden later told reporters he was "feeling confident" about the bill.In an address Wednesday afternoon at a truck plant in Pennsylvania, Biden added that he was working with Democrats and Republicans on the deal because "while there's a lot we don't agree on, I believe that we should be able to work together on the few things we do agree on."The forward movement on the bill comes a week after a failed test vote on the deal, with Republicans saying Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., was moving too quickly.The bill is expected to be around $1.2 trillion over eight years with roughly $550 billion in new spending, but details on key components were still being worked out. Some procedural steps still lie ahead before the final passage.Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, one of the 10 GOP lawmakers in the talks, said there is $65 billion for broadband deployment in the bill. She acknowledged "it has not been easy" to get a deal, "but we have reached agreement on the major issues."A White House fact sheet on the deal also outlines:
- $110 billion for roads, bridges and other major projects;
- $11 billion in transportation safety programs;
- $39 billion in transit modernization and improved accessibility;
- $66 billion in rail;
- $7.5 billion to build a national network of electric vehicle chargers;
- $73 billion in power infrastructure and clean energy transmission.
Portman said the bill is paid for, including using funds from combating fraud in unemployment assistance programs. The White House said it will also be offset in part by "targeted corporate user fees" as well as economic growth that's expected from the investments.
In 67-32 Vote, Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal Advances To Debate In The Senate - With 17 Republicans joining all 50 Democrats, the Senate on Wednesday voted to advance debate on a broad infrastructure package, just hours after a bipartisan group of senators and Joe Biden reached accord on a $550 billion plan that is a major step forward for the White House’s economic agenda. Below is a list of the key republicans who joined the Democrats to pass the vote:While the 67-32 procedural vote doesn’t guarantee that the package of spending on physical infrastructure will pass the Senate, but is a good indication that it may have enough support. Lawmakers expect votes on amendments and final passage to last into the weekend and possibly next week, with an eye to salvaging a long recess set to begin Aug. 9.The Senate will convene at 10:30 AM tomorrow. Following the conclusion of Morning Business, the Senate will resume consideration of the Motion to Proceed to H.R. 3684 (the legislative vehicle for the bipartisan infrastructure bill), post-clotureAs noted earlier, a core group led by Republican Senator Rob Portman of Ohio and Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona hammered out the infrastructure deal after lawmakers failed to muster the votes to begin debate last week.“Our plan will create good-paying jobs in communities across our country without raising taxes. Reaching this agreement was no easy task—but our constituents expect us to put in the hard work and show that two parties can still work together to address the needs of the American people,” the group of nine Republicans, 10 Democrats and one independent said in a statement.Among the projects that would get money, according to the White House:
- $110 billion for roads, bridges and major projects
- $73 billion for electric grid upgrades
- $66 billion for rail and Amtrak improvements
- $65 billion for broadband expansion
- $55 billion for clean drinking water
- $39 billion for transit
- $17 billion for ports and $25 billion for airports
- $7.5 billion for electric vehicle chargers
“This deal signals to the world that our democracy can function, deliver, and do big things,” Biden said in a statement. It “will help ensure that America can compete in the global economy just when we are in a race with China and the rest of the world for the 21st century.”But several Republicans, including Rick Scott of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, blasted the overall price tag and said they would oppose the bill.“Congress can’t keep spending trillions of dollars we don’t have,” the senators said in a statement. “The infrastructure package announced today continues the trend in Congress of insane deficit spending.”The package would be paid for by measures like re-purposing $200 billion in unspent Covid-19 relief funds, sales from the Strategic Petroleum reserve, increased customs user fees, government-sponsored enterprise fees and increased reporting requirements on cryptocurrency transactions. It also uses some funding sources that are sometimes called gimmicks, like counting revenue from future economic growth, extending cuts to future Medicare spending that Congress regularly turns off and allowing companiesIf the Senate is able to pass the bill in the coming days, Democrats hope to quickly pivot to passing a budget for fiscal 2022 which would set up a fast-track process to enact much of the rest of Biden’s economic agenda without any Republican support.
Trump blows fuse over GOP moving forward on infrastructure deal --Former President Trump lashed out at Senate Republicans on Thursday after the upper chamber voted to take up debate on a bipartisan infrastructure package, accusing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and “RINOs,” short for "Republicans in name only," of surrendering to Democrats.“Under the weak leadership of Mitch McConnell, Senate Republicans continue to lose,” Trump said in a statement. “He lost Arizona, he lost Georgia, he ignored Election Fraud and he doesn’t fight.” “Now he’s giving Democrats everything they want and getting nothing in return,” he continued. “No deal is better than a bad deal. Fight for America, not for special interests and Radical Democrats. RINOs are ruining America, right alongside Communist Democrats.” The former president’s attack on his party’s Senate leadership came a day after lawmakers voted 67-32 to greenlight a debate on the infrastructure deal, which includes $1.2 trillion for projects such as roads, bridges, public transit and broadband internet. The $1.2 trillion includes $579 billion in new spending.While the infrastructure deal still faces a series of legislative hurdles, Wednesday’s vote was seen as a major win for President Biden, who had championed the negotiations between a bipartisan group of senators. “This deal signals to the world that our democracy can function, deliver, and do big things. As we did with the transcontinental railroad and the interstate highway, we will once again transform America and propel us into the future,” Biden said in a statement. The vote is also likely to raise questions about Trump’s influence over the policymaking process in his post-presidency. Prior to Wednesday’s vote, he had pushed Republicans to reject a deal with Democrats, saying that the compromise is “a loser for the USA, a terrible deal, and makes the Republicans look weak, foolish, and dumb.”“It shouldn’t be done,” he said. “It sets an easy glidepath for Dems to then get beyond what anyone thought was possible in future legislation.”
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema won't back Democrats' $3.5T reconciliation bill - Sen. Kyrsten Sinema does not support Democrats' $3.5 trillion budget plan that aims to deliver major components of President Joe Biden’s economic agenda that Democrats hope to pass after moving a separate bipartisan infrastructure deal that Sinema negotiated.Sinema, D-Ariz., told The Arizona Republic on Wednesday she had reviewed the Senate Budget Committee’s spending framework and has told Senate leadership and Biden that she supports many of its goals, including job growth and American competitiveness. “I have also made clear that while I will support beginning this process, I do not support a bill that costs $3.5 trillion — and in the coming months, I will work in good faith to develop this legislation with my colleagues and the administration to strengthen Arizona’s economy and help Arizona’s everyday families get ahead,” Sinema said in a written statement.Sinema’s reservations with the overall budget bill, along with those of Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., suggests Democrats won’t have the votes to pass the more expansive plan, forcing Democrats to scale back the bill. All Senate Democrats would have to vote for the budget reconciliation bill for it to pass in the 50-50 chamber, where Vice President Kamala Harris would deliver a vote to break a tie. The package is a crucial component of Biden’s “human infrastructure” agenda that includes expanding Medicare and caregiving for the disabled and elderly, funding universal pre-kindergarten and paying for climate change initiatives. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., also wants to advance the vehicle to get the process started on the budget reconciliation package, he said in a statement to The Republic. He did not commit support to the top-line $3.5 trillion price tag. "A lot of work remains to continue rebuilding and growing our economy, which is why I want to see us move forward with this budget process," Kelly said. "I look forward to continuing to work on the details to make sure we create more good-paying jobs and get Arizonans the skills they need to work them.”Sinema's position on the price tag drew swift condemnation from progressive House Democrats and activists already incensed with her stance on maintaining the legislative filibuster. The filibuster is an obstacle to swiftly advancing Democrats' agenda ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., tweeted to her 12.7 million followers: "Good luck tanking your own party’s investment on childcare, climate action, and infrastructure while presuming you’ll survive a 3 vote House margin." Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich. meanwhile, accused Sinema of not caring about Arizona floods, wildfires across the West and aging infrastructure."Sinema is more interested in gaining GOP friends and blocking much needed resources, than fighting for her residents' future," Tlaib wrote on Twitter. Sinema’s position on the budget reconciliation bill comes the same day she and Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, announced a major breakthrough on a separate $1.2 trillion bipartisan public works infrastructure plan. Later in the day, senators voted 67-32 to begin debate on that infrastructure bill. Seventeen Republicans joined with Democrats to advance the legislation. That effort would remake the nation’s roads, bridges, airports, transit and water systems, and other projects.
Infrastructure deal is a mirage of hope in a poisoned Congress – For the briefest moment, amid an inferno of fury, mistrust, stunts and ill-faith, Congress actually worked.The Senate vote Wednesday on a bipartisan infrastructure deal was merely on opening debate on the plan, with legislative text yet to be released. But such tiny breakthroughs in Capitol Hill stalemate pass for huge success in a body that reflects, and now actively deepens, America's bitter national estrangement.The bill -- based on a still fragile compromise wrought in weeks of talks -- is a critical plank of Joe Biden's presidency as he seeks to show Americans that flailing, politicized Washington can still fix big things. In a treacherous path toward passage, the measure could still be derailed by Republicans intimidated by former President Donald Trump, who issued a vague threat of 2022 primaries against Republicans if the deal happened. It also needs the courage of more moderate GOP senators to survive, as the demands of progressive House Democrats threaten to blow it up. While more than $1 trillion for roads and bridges and other physical infrastructure represents a critical investment, the symbolism of Wednesday's vote is more important. The President hopes it will validate the parable of his inaugural address — that "politics need not be a raging fire destroying everything in its path."Sadly, most current evidence suggests the opposite in a Congress consumed by its poisoned antagonism, where traditional ideological fractures are exacerbated by the trauma of the January 6 insurrection and the stress of the pandemic.On Wednesday alone, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado reportedly threw a maskback at a floor staffer who offered her one so that she could comply with the reinstatement of masking requirements, announced by the Capitol attending physician late Tuesday in light of new US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance amid rising case numbers across the country.And House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is hardly maintaining the decorum expected of an office that is second in line to succeed the President. She described Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy as "such a moron." She was frustrated that her fellow Californian is leading his conference on a made-for-Fox-News crusade against masking guidelines with the kind of zeal that might be better employed urging Republican voters to get vaccinated. McCarthy had earlier turned masking into another culture war battle by accusing liberals of wanting "a perpetual pandemic state."The modern House has featured some combustible political characters. But relations between the two leaders of the rival parties have never been this toxic in living memory.
Here's what's in the $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure deal - After weeks of haggling behind closed doors, a bipartisan group of senators on Wednesday finally reached an agreement on the key details of a sweeping infrastructure bill that will include $550 billion in new spending.The legislation would pour federal money into physical infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, passenger rails, drinking water and waste water systems, as well as expanding high-speed internet and climate-related infrastructure. The White House says the investments will add an average 2 million jobs per year as part of President Joe Biden's agenda.Significant details are unknown about the bill, which has yet to be released in full — especially regarding its offsets. Here's what we know so far, according to a fact sheet from the White House:
- Roads and bridges: $110 billion in new funding will be allocated toward roads, bridges and other major projects. That includes $40 billion for bridge repair and replacement, which the White House touts as the largest such investment since the New Deal-era interstate highway system, and $17.5 billion for unspecified "major projects." The deal will also reauthorize a bipartisan surface transportation program for the next five years.
- Road safety: The deal puts $11 billion toward reducing car crashes and fatalities, including through a "Safe Streets for All" program. It will also double the funding that is sent to other programs that improve road safety.
- Public transit: The plan allocates $39 billion to modernize public transit and improv access for people with disabilities. The investment — the largest of its kind in U.S. history, the White House says — will replace thousands of buses and other transit vehicles with zero-emission upgrades.
- Passenger and freight rail: The deal would invest $66 billion to eliminate Amtrak's backlog, modernize trains and expand service.
- Electric vehicles and buses: The plan includes $15 billion in spending for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, electric buses and transit.
- One billion dollars would also be put toward a program to reconnect communities divided by transportation infrastructure. The White House notes, for instance, that parts of the highway system were built through Black neighborhoods.
- Airports, ports and waterways: The bill dedicates $17 billion toward port infrastructure and $25 billion toward airports.
- Water infrastructure: The plan includes $50 billion for investment in weatherization and protection against climate-change fueled disasters like droughts and floods.
- Clean water: The plan has $55 billion in funding for clean drinking water, which includes replacing all the country's lead pipes and service lines.
- High-Speed Internet: The deal includes $65 billion in spending for broadband internet infrastructure.
- Environmental clean-up: The plan includes $21 billion in funding for environmental remediation, including cleaning up superfund sites, reclaiming abandoned mine land and capping abandoned oil and gas wells.
- Power infrastructure: The plan includes $73 billion to shift the country from fossil fuels to clean energy. It invests in updated power infrastructure and research in technology like nuclear, carbon capture and clean hydrogen.
The Senate is expected to advance a $1 trillion infrastructure package in a rare Friday session -The Senate will vote to continue advancing a $1 trillion infrastructure package in a rare Friday session, as Senate Democrats race to pass both that bipartisan bill and a party-line $3.5 trillion budget blueprint before leaving for the scheduled August recess.Lawmakers and aides are still finalizing the text for the bipartisan infrastructure agreement after the Senate agreed on Wednesday to take up the legislation, but the Senate was expected to clear another procedural hurdle with the vote on Friday morning. The emerging deal is expected to provide $550 billion in new funding for the nation’s aging roads, bridges and highways, as well as broadband and resiliency projects.Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, has warned that the chamber could stay in Washington through the weekend to continue work on the measure. After 17 Republicans voted with all 50 members of the Democratic caucus to take up the bill, negotiators are hopeful that even more Republicans will sign on once the text is released.“Now is the time to go further, and build back even better than before,” Mr. Schumer said on Thursday. “And we Democrats, when we can in a bipartisan way, but on our own when our Republican colleagues are adamantly against us, we will move forward on both tracks.” Senate Democrats are also readying a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint that is expected to unlock the fast-track reconciliation process and allow them to work on an expansive package to carry the remainder of President Biden’s $4 trillion economic agenda, including health care, paid leave and additional provisions to address the toll of climate change. …
Senate set to advance bipartisan infrastructure bill on Friday in procedural vote - The Senate will vote Friday to move forward with a bipartisan infrastructure bill as Majority Leader Chuck Schumer pushes to pass it as soon as next week. The procedural measure will need a simple majority to pass in the Senate split 50-50 by party. The chamber last advanced the proposal by a 67-32 margin in a Wednesday test vote.The vote continues a scramble by Democrats to clinch two massive pieces of their economic agenda before the Senate leaves for its recess scheduled to start Aug. 9. The chamber could stay in session through the weekend to debate and amend the plan. The measure would put $550 billion in new funds into transportation, power, water and broadband. While negotiators have outlined how much money would go into everything from roads to railways and electric vehicle charging stations, senators have not released final legislation. Democrats aim to pass the bill along with a second, separate $3.5 trillion package that would include a bevy of other party priorities. The proposal could address child care, paid leave, tax credits for households and climate policy.Schumer, D-N.Y., hopes to approve a budget resolution, a key step in getting the bill through Congress, before the Senate leaves for its recess. The vote would unlock the budget reconciliation process, which would allow Democrats to pass their plan without a Republican vote.The bipartisan plan had more than enough GOP support to advance this week. Seventeen Republican senators including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., voted to move forward with it Wednesday. They joined all 50 Democrats.Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia, center, speaks during a news conference with the House Problem Solvers Caucus outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Friday, July 30, 2021.Their support for the procedural motion does not mean they will back the final bill. It will need 60 votes to get through the Senate.With their two-pronged strategy, Democratic leaders hope to appease both wings of their party. Centrists wanted to strike a bipartisan infrastructure deal, while progressives aimed to expand the social safety net and better prepare the country to fight climate change.The party has to navigate an evenly split Senate and a narrow majority in the House to pass both bills. One defection would sink the Democratic bill in the Senate.Senators including Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., have signaled they will vote to pass the budget resolution but try to trim their party's $3.5 trillion price tag for the reconciliation bill. House progressives have raised concerns the plan will not be robust enough.
U.S. Senate in rare Saturday session on $1 trln infrastructure bill (Reuters) -The U.S. Senate in a rare Saturday session worked on a bill that would spend $1 trillion on roads, rail lines and other infrastructure, as lawmakers from both parties sought to advance President Joe Biden's top legislative priority. The ambitious plan has the backing of Democrats and Republicans alike and has already cleared two hurdles by broad margins in the closely divided Senate. But so far no lawmakers have seen the final text of the bill, which includes about $550 billion in new spending and was still being written on Saturday. Earlier votes were for a shell bill that the actual legislation will be added to once it is complete. "Once the bipartisan group completes the legislative text, I will offer it as a substitute amendment," top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer said on Saturday. The Senate is going to move forward on both tracks of infrastructure before the beginning of the August recess. The longer it takes to finish, the longer we'll be here. But we're going to get the job done." After passing the $1 trillion bill, Schumer aims to push forward on a sweeping $3.5 trillion package that focuses on climate change and home care for the elderly and children. That faces staunch Republican opposition and some dissent among moderate Democrats. The Senate voted 66-28 on Friday to take up the bill, with 16 Republicans joining all 48 Democrats and two independents in support. The package would dramatically increase the nation's spending on roads, bridges, transit and airports. Supporters predicted it will ultimately pass the Senate and House of Representatives, eventually reaching Biden's desk for him to sign it into law. It includes about $550 billion in new spending, on top of $450 billion that was previously approved. It also includes money for eliminating lead water pipes and building electric vehicle charging stations. The bill does not include funding for most climate change and social initiatives that Democrats aim to pass in the separate $3.5 trillion measure without Republican support. Democrats hold razor-thin margins in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, meaning the party must stick together to achieve its legislative goals. Progressive members of the House Democratic caucus have already suggested the $1 trillion package is inadequate, and the Senate could likewise impose changes that could complicate its chances of becoming law. But supporters, including Schumer and Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, have been optimistic about its prospects.
COVID-19 surge explodes Biden’s claim of “independence” from pandemic - On July 4, President Joe Biden gave a speech in which he effectively asserted that the COVID-19 pandemic was over in America. Biden said the United States was “declaring our independence from a deadly virus… We can live our lives, our kids can go back to school, our economy is roaring back.” It was a theme Biden has repeated in speech after speech. On May 13, he said America was nearing the “finish line” of the pandemic. On June 15, he said: “America is headed into the summer dramatically different from last year’s summer: a summer of freedom, a summer of joy, a summer of get-togethers and celebrations. An all-American summer that this country deserves after a long, long, dark winter that we’ve all endured.” In reality, since Biden’s announcement of “independence” from COVID-19, cases have surged seven-fold and hospitalizations and deaths are rising as the dangerous Delta variant of the disease has become dominant. In the epicenters of the current pandemic outbreak—Arkansas, Louisiana and Florida—cases are at the highest level since January and are on track to set new records. Throughout 2020, then-President Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that the pandemic would “disappear.” Trump’s lies were aimed at eliminating all social distancing measures that had been imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19, with the aim of getting workers back on the job to increase the profits of the financial oligarchy. Biden’s lying declarations of “independence” from the pandemic had the same aim: to justify the abandonment of restrictions on the spread of COVID-19. “Take your mask off. You’ve earned the right,” Biden declared in May. And just as Trump’s insistence on reopening businesses and schools fueled a massive resurgence of the pandemic, the Biden administration’s encouragement of Americans to abandon mask-wearing and social distancing has fueled what may become the greatest outbreak of the pandemic to date. “Almost the same number of cases were reported today (70,264) as this day last year (71,600),” stated Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University on Sunday. But the worst is yet to come. Last Wednesday, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a consortium of researchers working in consultation with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), released a model showing that the number of daily US COVID-19 deaths could surge to 4,000 by October—the highest level of any period of the pandemic.
Rising case count reignites debate over COVID-19 restrictions -Biden administration officials are discussing the potential for tougher guidelines to blunt the nationwide surge in COVID-19 cases, but the White House will have to weigh how new measures might affect its overall vaccination push. The rise in infections around the country has sparked calls from some health experts to reimpose stricter masking guidance and other efforts designed to slow the spread of the virus. Doing so would likely set off criticism from conservatives and spark enforcement issues, as some Republican governors have vowed not to return to restrictions on businesses. White House officials — wary of any appearance that they are politicizing health guidelines — have been adamant that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will have the final say on whether new guidance is needed. “It would be actually surprising and odd if our health and medical experts were not having an active discussion about how to best protect the American people. And there is of course an active discussion about a range of steps that can be taken, as there has been from the first day of this administration,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday. “Certainly the surge in cases among the unvaccinated because of the delta variant prompts even more discussion about what actions can be taken,” Psaki added. “But we are going to, the CDC looks at data, they look at data across the country… and if they make an assessment, we will of course be here to follow their guidance.” Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s top medical adviser on the pandemic, told CNN on Sunday that recommending vaccinated Americans resume wearing masks in some settings is “under active consideration.” Fauci and other medical experts are part of those discussions, with Biden receiving regular briefings. Asked Monday if the president supports restrictions for unvaccinated people in public settings like restaurants and museums, Psaki reiterated that the White House will follow the CDC’s lead. But some localities aren’t waiting to take their cues from Washington. Los Angeles County and St. Louis recently announced new mask mandates, even for vaccinated individuals who are indoors. New Orleans issued an advisory encouraging the use of masks when indoors, and several other municipalities have gone a similar route.
The C.D.C. tells Americans to avoid travel to Spain and Portugal as cases rise. The C.D.C. on Monday published a “Level 4” travel notice — the highest warning it issues — saying those who must travel to either country should make sure they are fully vaccinated. Still, the agency said, “even fully vaccinated travelers may be at risk for getting and spreading Covid-19 variants.”Spain and Portugal just reopened their borders to American tourists in June and have been counting on a pent-up demand for their destinations to help fuel an economic recovery.Over the past two weeks, there has been a 74 percent increase in new coronavirus cases in Spain, and a rise of 18 percent in Portugal, according to New York Times data.The C.D.C. also updated Level 4 travel notices on Monday for Cuba,Cyprus and Kyrgyzstan.Last week, the C.D.C. also put out a similar travel notice for theUnited Kingdom, where restrictions have been lifted entirely and new cases have also been on the rise.To travel from the United States to Spain, there is no requirement to bring proof of vaccination or a negative coronavirus test. To travel from the United States to Portugal, tourists must provide proof of a negative coronavirus test. Restrictions on travel from Europe and other parts of the world to the United States will remain in place. On Monday, the Biden administration said those rules would continue, citing concerns that infected travelers may contribute to further spread of the contagious Delta variant across the country, Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said Monday afternoon.
The White House will continue to impose travel bans, citing Delta variant concerns. - The Biden administration will continue to restrict the entry of Europeans and others into the United States, citing concerns that infected travelers may contribute to further spread of the contagious Delta variant across the country, Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said Monday afternoon.Concern about the variant had convinced officials not to lift the current travel restrictions on foreigners, Ms. Psaki said, some of which had been in place since the beginning of the pandemic. Vaccines remain effective against the worst outcomes of Covid-19, including from the Delta variant.“The more transmissible Delta variant is spreading both here and around the world,” she told reporters, adding that cases are rising in the United States, particularly among the unvaccinated.The decision is a blow to the travel industry, which hoped that a lifting of the travel bans could increase tourism for the remaining summer months, helping hotels, airlines and other businesses that have been struggling.But Ms. Psaki said that it was unclear when the United States would remove the bans completely.“I don’t have a timeline to predict for you because it’s all about what success we have at getting more people vaccinated, getting more vaccines out to the world and fighting the virus,” she said.The United States began restricting travel from foreigners in January 2020, when former President Donald J. Trump restricted some travel from China in the hopes of preventing the spread of the virus. That effort largely failed.But health officials pressed the Trump administration to expand travel bans to much of Europe during the first surge of the pandemic in the spring of 2020, and more countries have been added to the ban as the original virus and several variants have spread rapidly from country to country.The Trump administration also used a public health authority known as Title 42 to effectively shut down the southern border to entry, citing worries that immigrants crossing on foot could bring the virus into the country. The Biden administration stopped enforcing the rule for unaccompanied children crossing the border alone and for some families.But Ms. Psaki said that the Title 42 restrictions, like the other travel bans, would remain for the time being.“We have never conveyed or announced a timeline for Title 42,” she said. “So nothing has changed in that regard, it remains in place, and it will remain in place as long as that is the guidance from our health and medical experts.”
The Biden administration is considering mandating federal workers to be vaccinated or face testing. — The Biden administration is considering requiring all federal employees to be vaccinated against the coronavirus or be forced to submit to regular testing, social distancing, mask requirements and restrictions on most travel, officials said Tuesday — a dramatic shift in approach by President Biden that reflects the government’s growing concern about the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. Mr. Biden said on Tuesday that a vaccine mandate for all federal workers is under consideration, but did not provide details. Administration officials said the idea being debated was similar to a plan announced by New York City, which would require any of the city’s 300,000 employees who refuse to be vaccinated to submit to weekly testing. Officials said there was no consideration of simply firing employees who refuse to get vaccinated, but that the government could add additional burdens or restrictions on those who do not get the protections in an effort to convince more people to get the shot in the first place. They said there is evidence that making life inconvenient for those who refuse the vaccine works reasonably well to increase vaccination rates. Around the country, mayors, business leaders, hospital administrators and college presidents are requiring Covid-19 vaccinations, even for those who have refused to voluntarily roll up their sleeves. So far, Mr. Biden has resisted. He has not yet required all federal workers to be vaccinated. He has not ordered members of the military to get shots. And he has not used his bully pulpit call for a broader use of vaccine mandates. But the president’s stance may be shifting quickly. Inside the West Wing, his top public health experts are furiously debating the right path forward, according to administration officials, as the Delta variant surges in places where there are high numbers of unvaccinated Americans, posing a special threat to children, older people, cancer patients and others with weakened immune systems.
CDC Director Hints At 'Health Passes', Warns COVID May Be "Few Mutations" Away From Evading Vaccines -Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told reporters during a teleconference on Tuesday that her biggest concern is that the CCP virus may be “just a few mutations” away from being able to evade vaccines.“The largest concern that I think we in public health and science are worried about is that virus and the potential mutations. We have a very transmissible virus which as the potential to evade our vaccines in terms of how it protects us from severe disease and death,” Walensky said.“Right now, fortunately, we are not there. These vaccines operate really well in protecting us from severe disease and death. But the big concern is the next variant that might emerge, just a few mutations potentially away, could potentially evade our vaccines.”[ZH: Remember just a few weeks before she lifted the mask mandate, Walensky warned the world of a sense of "impending doom."] Walensky advised that the threat of a variant that is immune to the current vaccines is the reason more Americans should be vaccinated in a bid to contain the virus and its mutations.
‘Long Covid’ patients will be covered by federal disability law, Biden says. - Americans suffering from “long Covid” — a term referring to new or ongoing health problems from a coronavirus infection that occurred weeks or months ago — will have access to the benefits and protection provided under federal disability law, President Biden said on Monday.Speaking in the Rose Garden to celebrate the 31st anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act, Mr. Biden listed some of the lingering effects that have been seen in coronavirus survivors, including “breathing problems, brain fog, chronic pain or fatigue,” and noted that the effects sometimes rise to the level of a disability.“We are bringing agencies together to make sure Americans with long Covid, who have a disability, have access to the rights and resources that are due under the disability law,” Mr. Biden said, noting that they would include special accommodations and services in the workplace, in schools and in the health care system.In some cases, the health effects of Covid-19 can persist for months after initially causing only mild symptoms. A study published in April found that a coronavirus infection also appears to increase the risk of death and chronic medical conditions afterward, even in people who were never sick enough with the virus to be hospitalized. The research, based on records of patients in the Department of Veterans Affairs health system, also found that non-hospitalized Covid survivors had a 20 percent greater chance of needing outpatient medical care in the six months following infection than did people who had not contracted the coronavirus.
Mayorkas working remotely after being exposed to COVID-19 -Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas will be working from home this week after coming into contact with someone who tested positive for the coronavirus and submitting himself to quarantine. “Secretary Mayorkas has a virtual schedule this week after coming into close contact with a DHS official who later tested positive for COVID-19,” Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spokesperson Marsha Espinosa said in a statement to The Hill on Tuesday.“The Secretary is fully vaccinated, has no symptoms, and has tested negative twice. Official DHS contact tracing is underway. These recommendations have been informed by the Office of the DHS Chief Medical Officer and are taken in an overabundance of caution,” Espinosa added.
Pentagon requires masks indoors regardless of vax status - The US military has fallen in line with the latest Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendations about mask-wearing.The Pentagon announced Wednesday that service members, civilian workers, contractors and visitors must wear masks indoors at military installations and other facilities “owned, leased or otherwise controlled” by the Defense Department in areas where COVID-19 transmission is “substantial” or “high.”The memo from Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks also requires those who are not fully vaccinated to practice social distancing.The Pentagon directive follows Tuesday’s CDC recommendation of indoor mask mandates in jurisdictions with at least 50 confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people over the previous seven days.According to the CDC’s own data, approximately two-thirds of America’s counties are experiencing “substantial” or “high” levels of transmission. Nearly half of all US counties fall into the latter category, defined as at least 100 cases per 100,000 people over the past seven days.Coronavirus cases have increased across the US due to the highly contagious Delta variant, which is responsible for the vast majority of infections in the country. The US Navy announced Wednesday that a reservist based in Idaho died Monday and a doctor assigned to the Naval Medical Center at Camp Lejeune, N.C., died last Friday. The deaths of 47-year-old Master-at-Arms First Class Allen Hillman and 48-year-old Capt. Corby Ropp bring the total number of sailors who perished from COVID-19 to 10 and are the first for the Navy since April 29.
CDC Reversal on Masks, Vaccinated as Covid Spreaders, While Boosters Look to Be Coming Late and Not Hugely Effective - Yves Smith The Covid situation has developed not necessarily to the CDC’s advantage. Let us count some of the ways before we turn to a new failure in the making, the vaccine boosters. The CDC left public health officials in the dark during the crucial early months by botching its Covid test and then having trouble with assuring adequate supplies, and stonewalling its own responsibility (the first story was that contractors were to blame, but after months of reporting, it turned out that CDC scientists were)The CDC refused to recommend putting teeth in quarantinesCDC chief Rochelle Walensky said “Vaccinated people do not carry the virus,” as did some public service commercialsThe VAERS database is not only weeks behind in reporting cases of vaccine incidents, but multiple clinicians have submitted adverse events that are almost impossible to attribute to anything else that have not been included in VAERSThe CDC doggedly refusing to acknowledge aerosol transmission and continuing to recommend surface cleaning theater long after the careful and paradigm-shifting work of epidemiologists and aerosol scientists came up with a more convincing and complete theoryWalensky made a fool of herself by crying about how awful things were going to get, and later saying before Congress that her son wasn’t going to camp as the CDC had already finished its “Mission accomplished! Throw off your masks” guidance. Now the CDC has done yet another flip-flop which only further undermines its and the medical establishment’s credibility. The lead item on national TV news this evening was conceding that vaccinated people could (as in are) spreading Covid and they should therefore mask indoors. Oh, but only where the horse has left the barn and is in the next county. As Lambert said in Water Cooler, quoting a Reuters recap:“The recommendations to wear masks in some indoor settings will apply in areas with surging COVID-19 cases, they said.” • Awesome. Let’s mask up only after it’s too late. As I keep asking: What business is the CDC in, anyhow?The only goal we can fathom was that Biden was determined to have his July 4 “Freedom Day” whether or not that made any sense in light of vaccination levels and and variant infectiousness. And as Lambert and I have repeatedly bemoaned, treating unmasking as a reward doubled down on right wing messaging that masking was a horrible imposition. Help me. Bathing daily is much more hassle. Do you hear people whine about that?
The Biden administration wants states and cities to pay people $100 to get vaccinated.— The Biden administration is calling on states, territories and local governments to pay $100 to Americans who remain unvaccinated against the coronavirus to get their shots. The move comes as concern has grown about rising cases across the country, and the administration has shifted its strategy to focus on more personalized approaches. The Treasury Department said Thursday that the money to pay for the vaccine incentive payments could come from the $350 billion of relief funds that is being given to states and cities as part of the economic rescue package that Congress approved in March. The incentive is intended to “boost vaccination rates, protect communities, and save lives.” The administration is also stepping up efforts to get to companies to give their employees time off to get the vaccine. The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service said that employers can claim tax credits to cover wages paid to workers who take family members to get vaccinated or care for members of their households who are recovering from the vaccination. Self-employed workers are also eligible to receive the tax credits. The initiative expands on a program that was rolled out in April that offered a paid leave tax credit to offset the cost to companies with fewer than 500 workers incurred by giving paid time to workers getting vaccines. President Biden on Thursday announced that all civilian federal employees must be vaccinated or be forced to submit to regular testing, social distancing, mask requirements and restrictions on most travel. The president also directed the Defense Department to study how and when to add the coronavirus vaccine to the list of required vaccinations for all members of the military. The Biden administration has been tussling with some states over how the relief money can be used, but earlier this year issued guidance that made clear it can go toward programs that are expected to increase the number of people who choose to get vaccinated. The Treasury Department said it will provide technical assistance for states and cities to help them use the money to boost vaccinations in their communities and it will be working with the Department of Health and Human Services. States and cities have been taking creative approaches, such as lotteries, to encourage people to get vaccinated. Some experts, especially in the early days of the vaccination campaign, have expressed concern, though, over the idea of paying people to get vaccinated, worrying that it could be perceived as out of step with messaging that vaccines bring enormous benefits on their own. Opponents of the idea have also questioned whether paying people is the best use of funds to encourage people to get vaccinated.
House Democrats expand probe into political interference into CDC during Trump administration --House Democrats on Monday widened their investigation into political interference at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during former President Trump's administration based on new documents. Through letters, Democrats on the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis requested interviews from eight former and current CDC and Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) officials and employees and three former Trump appointees as the probe branches out. Along with the letters, the subcommittee also released a new email suggesting that senior officials were informed of and planning to discuss how to respond to Trump adviser Paul Alexander’s email requesting an “immediate stop” to all of the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports (MMWR). The subcommittee, led by Chairman James Clyburn (D-S.C.), has been looking into reports and emails indicating that Trump appointees tried to meddle in the CDC’s coronavirus response, including through efforts to edit and stop scientific reports on COVID-19. The Trump administration has denied that any political influence affected the reports, traditionally considered to be untouched by politics. A CDC career employee sent the newly released email from Aug. 9 that indicated senior leadership was available to meet and talk about “next steps” following Alexander’s request to halt publication of the MMWR. On Monday, House Democrats asked for interviews with former CDC Deputy Director Anne Schuchat and former CDC official Nancy Messonnier, who held different positions during the pandemic and resigned earlier this year. Former Trump appointees to the CDC Kyle McGowan, Amanda Campbell and Nina Witkofsky were also requested for interviews.
The Vaccine Aristocrats by Matt Taibbi - Covid-19 cases are rising, but the "Pandemic of the Unvaccinated" blame-game campaign is the worst way to address the problem On This Week With George Stephanopoulos this past Sunday, a bafflegab of Washington poo-bahs including Chris Christie, Rahm Emmanuel, Margaret Hoover, and Donna Brazile — Stephanopoulos calls the segment his “Powerhouse Roundtable,” which to my ear sounds like a Denny’s breakfast sampler, but I guess he couldn’t name it Four Hated Windbags — discussed vaccine holdouts. The former George W. Bush and Giuliani aide Hoover said it was time to stop playing nice: If you’re going to get government-provided health care, if you’re getting VA treatment, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, anything — and Social Security obviously isn’t health care — you should be getting the vaccine. Okay? Because weare going to have to take care of you on the back end. Brazile nodded sagely, but Emmanuel all but gushed cartoon hearts. “You know, I’m having an out of body experience, because I agree with you,” said Obama’s former hatchet man, before adding, over the chyron, FRUSTRATION MOUNTS WITH UNVACCINATED AMERICANS: I would close the space in. Meaning if you want to participate in X or Y activity, you gotta show you’re vaccinated. So it becomes a reward-punishment type system, and you make your own calculation. This bipartisan love-in took place a few days after David Frum, famed Bush speechwriter and creator of the “Axis of Evil” slogan, wrote a column in The Atlanticentitled “Vaccinated America Has Had Enough.” In it, Frum wondered: Does Biden’s America have a breaking point? Biden’s America produces 70 percent of the country’s wealth — and then sees that wealth transferred to support Trump’s America. Which is fine; that’s what citizens of one nation do for one another… [But] the reciprocal part of the bargain is not being upheld… Will Blue America ever decide it’s had enough of being put medically at risk by people and places whose bills it pays? Check yourself. Have you? I’m vaccinated. I think people should be vaccinated. But this latest moral mania — and make no mistake about it, the “pandemic of the unvaccinated” PR campaign is the latest in a ceaseless series of such manias, dating back to late 2016 — lays bare everything that’s abhorrent and nonsensical in modern American politics, beginning with the no-longer-disguised aristocratic mien of the Washington consensus. If you want to convince people to get a vaccine, pretty much the worst way to go about it is a massive blame campaign, delivered by sneering bluenoses who have a richly deserved credibility problem with large chunks of the population, and now insist they’re owed financially besides. There’s always been a contingent in American society that believes people who pay more taxes should get more say, or “more votes,” as Joseph Heller’s hilarious Texan put it. It’s a conceit that cut across party. You hear it from the bank CEO who thinks America should thank him for the pleasure of kissing his ass with a bailout, but just as quickly from the suburban wine Mom who can’t believe the ingratitude of the nanny who asks for a day off. Doesn’t she know who’s paying the bills? The delusion can run so deep that people like Margaret Hoover can talk themselves into the idea that Social Security — money taxpayers lend the government, not the other way around — is actually a gift from the check-writing class.
Iowa governor suggests immigrants partially to blame for rising COVID-19 cases -Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) on Tuesday placed partial blame for the recent surge in COVID-19 cases on immigrants crossing into the U.S. from its southern border."Part of the problem is the southern border is open and we’ve got 88 countries that are coming across the border and they don’t have vaccines so none of them are vaccinated and they’re getting dispersed throughout the country," Reynolds said to reporters, according to the Des Moines Register. The Register notes that Reynolds has been a vocal critic of President Biden's handling of the U.S.-Mexico border. She recently sent 29 state troopers to the southern border at the request of Texas.Health experts have largely attributed to the recent surge in cases to the more infectious delta variant, which has now become the dominant strain in the U.S. The surge has also been dubbed the "outbreak of the unvaccinated" as people who are not immunized against COVID-19 have been disproportionately affected by this recent surge. Joe Henry, state political director for the League of United Latin American Citizens of Iowa, said to the Register that Reynold's comments amounted to "hate-mongering." "For her to cry wolf about this doesn’t seem to make sense in light of the fact that she hasn’t done the work here in Iowa to make sure that everybody gets vaccinated," Henry said.
Biden's Border Patrol Dumping COVID-Positive Illegals In Texas Town Via Local Charity -Police in La Joya, Texas are reporting that illegal immigrants who have tested positive for Covid-19 are being released from federal custody and into the hands of a Catholic charity - which then dumps them in local hotels without notice. "On July 26, 2021, a La Joya Police Department Officer was waved down by a concern citizen at the Whataburger," according to a Facebook post by the La Joya PD. "The citizen explained to the Officer that she had observed a family group who were not being observant of proper health guidelines. She stated that the family was coughing and sneezing without covering their mouths and were not wearing face masks." "The Officer approached the family and was told by them that they had been apprehended by Border Patrol days prior and were released because they were sick with Covid-19," the post continues. "It was also learned that the family was housed at the Texas Inn Hotel located at 612 E. Expressway 83 La Joya Tx. 78560, by a charity group. Officers made contact with Hotel management who explained that Catholic Charities of The Rio Grande Valley had booked all the rooms in the hotel to house undocumented immigrants that were detained By Border Patrol." In response to the report, a Hidalgo County Judge - Richard F. Cortez, said "I call on federal immigration officials to stop releasing infected migrants into our community and I am further calling on Governor Abbott to return to Hidalgo County the safety tools he took away that would help us slow the spread of this disease..." The executive director of the charity confirmed that they are placing illegal migrants infected with COVID into hotels, but that the incident has been "corrected" and a security guard will keep migrants inside the hotel.
Biden Official Orders Immigration Judges To Stop Describing Illegal Aliens As "Illegal Aliens" A top Biden-appointed immigration official issued a memo last week directing immigration judges to stop using the term “illegal aliens” to describe illegal aliens.In a July 23 memo titled “Terminology,” Acting Director of the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR) Jean King directed immigration judges to instead use terms like “undocumented noncitizen” and “undocumented individual.” King also directed judges to stop using the term “unaccompanied alien child” to describe unaccompanied alien children, directing them to use terms like “unaccompanied non-citizen child” and “unaccompanied non-U.S. citizen child.”The memo references a pair of President Joe Biden’s executive orders and notes that neither uses the term “alien” or “illegal alien” to describe illegal aliens. It also points to two recent Supreme Court opinions in which the justices opted to substitute the term “noncitizen” for the statutory term “alien.The memo’s footnotes also reference the 2013 style guidance change by the Associated Press, which forbids the use of terms like “illegal alien,” “an illegal,” “illegals,” and “undocumented.” It also points to a 2016 decision by the Library of Congress to stop using the term “illegal alien.” “The phrase ‘illegal aliens’ has taken on a pejorative tone in recent years, and in response, some institutions have determined that they will cease to use it,” the Library of Congress decision stated. “After deliberation, the meeting participants determined that the heading Aliens will be revised to Noncitizens.”
Pandemic Aid Programs Spur a Record Drop in Poverty - The huge increase in government aid prompted by the coronavirus pandemic will cut poverty nearly in half this year from prepandemic levels and push the share of Americans in poverty to the lowest level on record, according to the most comprehensive analysis yet of a vast but temporary expansion of the safety net.The number of poor Americans is expected to fall by nearly 20 million from 2018 levels, a decline of almost 45 percent. The country has never cut poverty so much in such a short period of time, and the development is especially notable since it defies economic headwinds — the economy has nearly seven million fewer jobs than it did before the pandemic. The extraordinary reduction in poverty has come at extraordinary cost, with annual spending on major programs projected to rise fourfold to more than $1 trillion. Yet without further expensive new measures, millions of families may find the escape from poverty brief. The three programs that cut poverty most — stimulus checks, increased food stamps and expanded unemployment insurance — have ended or are scheduled to soon revert to their prepandemic size. …
Elizabeth Warren Schools Billionaire Over Social Security - Warren appeared alongside billionaire Ken Langone on CNBC’s Squawk Box, where Langone asked Warren why he, a billionaire, still receives social security checks, among other questions about taxes on the super-wealthy. When he finally gave Warren a moment to get a word in, she certainly delivered. Let’s check out the exchange and footage below.Langone, who described himself as a “fat cat,” told Warren he had an “easy” question that would “surprise” her.“How do you justify giving me a three thousand dollars a month check every month with all my wealth? Why don’t you people have the courage to address entitlements as to what should no longer be an entitlement?” He added that he shouldn’t get Social Security and asked why corporations don’t have a minimum alternative tax.Warren took his questions in stride, starting by explaining how taxes work for the super-wealthy.“Jeff Bezos has not paid taxes on the wealth that he has,” Warren stated, adding that in spite of being worth a “bazillion dollars,” he has not paid taxes on his wealth.“In fact,” she continued. “Jeff Bezos, many years, has either paid nothing in taxes or has paid 1%. Why? Because his income is very, very small but he continues to grow his wealth through all of his Amazon stock. And how does he then fund a lifestyle, like he does? Not by cashing in Amazon stock but by borrowing against it.”Warren explained that right now, our tax system simply doesn’t encompass people at a certain level of wealth (like Bezos), but does make low-income and middle-class folks pay.In response to Langone’s second question about minimum tax rates, Warren addressed that she has herself suggested something very similar to a minimum tax on corporations, which she called a “real corporate profits tax.” She added this would be another way to get funds for universal child care and infrastructure repair.
Private Equity invests in “Primary Care” Medicine - I am adding a brief comment here (it fits and is on topic) rather than going back to the earlier post which I believe to be titled correctly; “Little Good can Come from Private Equity in the Healthcare Industry.” As my source of information I had identified two different articles taken from Modern Healthcare and also MedPage Today. Both I read religiously and from both I get email notifications. My three points to my titling are as follows:
- “Investors spent almost 10 times more buying physician practices in the second quarter of 2021 compared with the prior-year period.” It appears Private Equity woke up. A year later they are investing 10 times more that the previous year and are investing “more,” more in one particular part of healthcare . . . Primary Care. This is new and a greater investment.
- “Involvement in Primary-Care opens the door to supplying medical services through Medicare Advantage plans which are more open to pricing than traditional Medicare.” This is a newer foray into primary care which has been ignored by Insurance Companies and Private Equity firms as the money is in Specialties. It does open a door for PE to be more involved in healthcare.“
- Insurance companies are aggressive about building out primary care acquisitions to increase their patient influence on the front end, control costs in their own Medicare Advantage plans, and to minimize outside influence. It is all about locking in people to a company’s medical network in MA. For Private Equity investors, it’s more about having leverage in negotiations with insurers if they control some doctors in an area.
Granted PE firms have been involved in healthcare; but, they have largely ignored Primary Care. Granted It is a new endeavor. I am not a Private Equity person although my investment choices has given me a secure life going forward during my remaining years. I admit, there are those who know more than I on Private Equity. I do not believe I labeled the previous post incorrectly.
FCC Cheered for Cleaning Up After Pai Awarded Contracts to Connect 'Empty Parking Lots' - The Federal Communications Commission announced Monday a round of funding for new broadband deployments and its intention to "clean up issues" stemming from former chairman Ajit Pai's mismanagement of a program meant to bring connectivity to rural areas.At issue is the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund. Adopted in 2020, the "program can do great things, but it requires thoughtful oversight," FCC Acting Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel, whom President Joe Biden tapped to lead the agency, said (pdf) in a press statement.Under the leadership of Pai, who was appointed by former President Donald Trump, the FCC awarded 180 bidders contracts to expand broadband to underserved areas. Pai, in a December statement, touted (pdf) the auction as an "incredible success" and declared the program "the single largest step ever taken to bridge the digital divide."Digital rights advocacy group Free Press dug in to those claims and the bids outlined by companies to help purportedly unconnected areas. The group found Pai's program was on track to be "one of the most wasteful projects in FCC history" in light of bids to cover "empty parking lots" and urban areas already well connected. The FCC's Monday statement appears to reference the those findings and directs those who won grants to withdraw their requests if they don't meet the program's mandate: In light of complaints that the program was poised to fund broadband to parking lots and well-served urban areas, the FCC sent letters to 197 winning bidders. The letters offer providers an opportunity to withdraw their funding requests from those places already with service or where significant questions of waste have been raised. Next, the FCC made clear that it will not tolerate any provider participating in the program that is not serious about providing broadband service or has not made appropriate efforts to secure state approvals. Free Press noted Monday that Starlink—Elon Musk’s satellite internet company—was among those receiving the new FCC letters.
Congress Moves to Reclaim Its War Powers -In mid-July 2021, a bipartisan and ideologically diverse group of senators proposed a new bill that, if passed, would dramatically shift the relative amount of power the president and Congress have over U.S. military operations. Whether this bill passes as is, or with significant changes, or not at all, its proposal signals an effort by lawmakers to reclaim power over military action and spending that Congress has gradually surrendered over decades. It also puts pressure on presidents to evaluate their foreign policy objectives more clearly, to determine whether military action is, in fact, appropriate and justified.As I’ve demonstrated in my research, even though the 1973 War Powers Resolution attempted to constrain presidential power after the disasters of the Vietnam War, it contains many loopholesthat presidents have exploited to act unilaterally. For example, it allows presidents to engage in military operations without congressional approval for up to 90 days.As a result of this shift from legislative oversight to presidential control, U.S. foreign policy has become less deliberative and administrations from both parties enjoy a significant amount of control over whether the U.S. calls in the armed forces to address developments overseas.This bill would end that loophole, requiring presidents to explain their actions more clearly to Congress and the public. Since Franklin D. Roosevelt, presidents have attempted to circumvent oversight and restraints from Congress by citing vague concerns like “national security,” “regional security” or the need to “prevent a humanitarian disaster,” when launching military operations. But they haven’t typically given Congress more concrete information about the nature of the operation or its expected duration.The new bill sets out a clear definition of which military activities need to be reported to Congress, and how quickly. This is especially important given the ambiguities that prior administrations have exploited. In 2011, a State Department lawyer argued that air strikes in Libya could continue beyond the War Powers Resolution’s 90-day time limit because there were no ground troops involved. By that logic, any future president could carry out an indefinite bombing campaign with no congressional oversight.The bill would also require the president to provide an estimated cost of the operation and describe the mission’s objectives – both of which could help Congress determine whether a military operation had stayed within its intended bounds or gone beyond them.
Cheney says full Jan. 6 probe needed to remove 'cancer' from republic - Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) warned at the start of Tuesday’s Jan. 6 committee hearing that a “cancer” will remain in America unless everyone involved in the planning of the Capitol attack is called to testify and held accountable. If they don't cooperate, the committee should "promptly" subpoena them, she said. The opening statement from Cheney, one of two Republicans picked by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to serve on the special panel investigating the Jan. 6 riot, was aimed at not only the pro-Trump mob that invaded the Capitol that day but also Trump allies like Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who spoke to former President Trump as the siege was underway and have defended his actions egging on his supporters. “The American people deserve the full and open testimony of every person with knowledge of the planning and preparation for January 6th. … We must also know what happened every minute of that day in the White House — every phone call, every conversation, every meeting leading up to, during and after the attack. Honorable men and women have an obligation to step forward,” Cheney said in her statement. “If those responsible are not held accountable, and if Congress does not act responsibly, this will remain a cancer on our constitutional Republic, undermining the peaceful transfer of power at the heart of our democratic system," she said. Most Republicans want to move on from Jan. 6, and McCarthy and other GOP leaders held a news conference earlier Tuesday trying to cast blame on Pelosi for the security breach. But Cheney and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.), the two Republicans on the special panel, have insisted that the violent insurrection of Jan. 6, and its causes, must be fully investigated. “We must issue and enforce subpoenas promptly. We must get to the objective truth,” Cheney said. “We must overcome the many efforts we are already seeing to cover up and obscure the facts.”
Turns Out Mo Brooks Was Wearing Body Armor to Trump’s Very Peaceful Jan. 6 Rally - Rep. Mo Brooks may be done with Jan. 6, but Jan. 6 isn’t done with him.The Alabama representative, notorious for his speaking role at the Jan. 6 rally leading up to the invasion of the Capitol, did not watch Tuesday’s first hearing of the House select committee investigating said invasion.“I was in the House Armed Services Committee, Science, Space, Technology Committee, and had at least one Zoom meeting, and all sorts of other things,” he told me Wednesday when I encountered him outside the House chamber. “Busy day.” Not that a clear schedule would have made a difference.“The purpose of that committee is not to discern the truth,” he said. “The purpose is to create political propaganda that may be used in the elections in 2022 and perhaps 2024.” But whether he’s able to continue to avoid the committee altogether may not be up to him.Back in December, Brooks was the first House Republican to say ahead of the congressional Electoral College certification that he would object to certain states’ electors. On the day of the certification, Jan. 6, he then gave a fiery speech at President Donald Trump’s rally at the Ellipse where he told the assembled crowd that “today is the day American patriots start taking down names and kicking ass!” Months later, he still argues that Trump would have won the election if only “lawful votes” were counted.Brooks’ support of Trump’s efforts to overturn the election successfully earned him the former president’s endorsement in the 2022 Alabama Senate race. But it’s also earned him legal issues. California Rep. Eric Swalwell sued Brooks and others earlier this year for fomenting the Jan. 6 riot. The Justice Department this week refused Brooks’ request to shield him from the lawsuit, in part because he’d basically admitted he was thinking about winning elections—not doing his job—when he started his rally chant. And though Brooks is claiming to dismiss the select committee hearings as a political stunt, the committee could seek to bring him in for questioning about what he knew, or didn’t know, ahead of the riot.
Bye-bye, bitcoin: It's time to ban cryptocurrencies --I’ve never quite understood why cryptocurrencies are worth anything. Of course, the untraceable payments are worth a lot to ransomware hackers, cyber criminals and money launderers. But dollars, euros and yen are backed by nations’ respective treasuries. If someone invents a cryptocurrency, any value is based solely on convincing others it has value. But is it a usable means of exchange? International banking officials say cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin are speculative assets, not sustainable, usable money.Yet the epidemic of hugely disruptive ransomware attacks in recent months — on JBS Foods, a major meat processor; on Colonial Pipelines, our critical infrastructure, causing gasoline shortages for weeks; and on 1,000 or more U.S. businesses on July 4 — highlights the enormous risks. Moreover, hundreds of small towns, hospitals, school districts and small businesses have been hit by the ransomware epidemic — all enabled by cryptocurrencies.How should governments respond? Besieged with cyberattacks, the Biden administration has been struggling with this question of cybersecurity with few clear answers. Cyber offense still seems to beat cyber defense. As the eminent economic analyst Martin Wolf outlined in a recentFinancial Times essay, the risks and chaos of a wild world of unstable private money is a libertarian fantasy. According to a recentFederal Reserve paper, there are already some 8,000 cryptocurrencies. It’s a new mom-and-pop cottage industry.How should governments respond? Wolf argues that central banks (e.g., the U.S. Federal Reserve) should create their own official digital currencies — central bank digital currencies (CBDC) and make cryptocurrencies illegal.I’ve been asking the same question: Who needs cryptocurrencies? Apart from the nasty uses and wild speculative value swings, data mining to produce bitcoin is a serious environmental hazard, using huge amounts of electricity by rows and rows of computers.Governments should guarantee safe, stable and usable money. Already, according to the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center's CBDC Tracker, 81 countries representing 90 percent of world gross domestic product are at various stages of researching and exploring the adoption of digital currencies.The four largest central banks — the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve — are all exploring CBDCs, though the U.S. lags behind. Meanwhile, China is already digitizing its currency, the RMB, and allowing foreign visitors to use it for payments. Though China is still a long way from having an international reserve currency to rival the dollar, its digitized RMB is a step in that direction.
Battle lines over cryptocurrencies being drawn in Congress | American Banker— Lawmakers are sharply divided over the government's approach to the growing popularity of digital currencies.On one side are Democrats raising alarms about cryptocurrency price manipulation and the risk of digital currencies enabling criminal activity. Republicans have the completely opposite view that policymakers should get out of the way of innovation to allow the U.S. to compete globally."The last thing we should do is regulate these innovators into oblivion," said Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont.
Biden’s Crime Chief Had Screaming Red Flags on His Financial Disclosure Form; Senators Ignored Them - By Pam Martens - What happened on July 20 with the 56-44 vote in the Senate to confirm Kenneth Polite (pronounced Po-leet) to head the most powerful criminal law enforcement office in the United States, the Criminal Division of the Department of Justice, is a cautionary tale that should concern every American. Despite Polite owing more than $1.5 million in debts according to his financial disclosure form and public mortgage records; paying over 18 percent interest on an outstanding balance on a credit card; 19.99 percent interest on a personal loan; and now accepting a job where his income will be slashed by about 77 percent – not one Senator on the Senate Judiciary Committee asked a single question about this man’s bizarre financial picture during his confirmation hearing on May 26 or in written questions that followed. Senator Dick Durbin, a Democrat from Illinois, Chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee. Durbin took to the Senate floor on July 20, the day of the full Senate vote on Polite, to give a glowing endorsement of Polite.Polite hails from the law firm of Morgan, Lewis & Bochius, which has plenty of red flags itself. Polite was a partner there earning approximately $877,500 in 2020. His job at the Justice Department will pay less than $200,000 annually. Morgan, Lewis has, for decades, provided legal representation to the Wall Street mega banks. Polite’s financial disclosure form reveals that JPMorgan Chase was one of his clients over the past year.JPMorgan Chase has racked up five felony counts brought by the Justice Departmentin the past seven years, including two felony counts brought just last fall. The bank admitted to all five counts. In September of 2019, the Justice Department charged that traders at the bank were running a racketeering enterprise out of its precious metals trading desk. That case, brought under the RICO statute, which is typically reserved for organized crime, is still ongoing at the Justice Department.Polite also revealed on his financial disclosure form that Morgan Stanley was his client over the past year. Morgan Stanley, along with other Wall Street banks represented by Morgan Lewis, are under a new Justice Department investigation for loaning out their balance sheets to hedge funds to conduct trading in highly-leveraged and highly-concentrated stock positions, which led to the collapse of the Archegos family office hedge fund in March of this year; a 50 percent plunge in the price of some of the stocks involved in the scheme; and more than $10 billion in losses for the banks involved in providing the margin loans, which were dressed up as derivative trades.Under Polite’s Ethics Agreement, “he will be required to recuse from particular matters involving specific parties involving his former employer or former clients for a period of two years after he is appointed….” Why should the American people accept a Biden nominee that can’t hit the ground running against one of the most criminally-inclined industries in America. Why should the U.S. Senate confirm such a man?
Tether executives said to face criminal probe into bank fraud - A U.S. probe into Tether is homing in on whether executives behind the digital token committed bank fraud, a potential criminal case that would have broad implications for the cryptocurrency market. Tether’s pivotal role in the crypto ecosystem is now well known because the token is widely used to trade Bitcoin. But the Justice Department investigation is focused on conduct that occurred years ago, when Tether was in its more nascent stages. Specifically, federal prosecutors are scrutinizing whether Tether concealed from banks that transactions were linked to crypto, said three people with direct knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the probe is confidential. Bloomberg News Criminal charges would mark one of the most significant developments in the U.S. government’s crackdown on virtual currencies. That’s because Tether is by far the most popular of stablecoins — tokens designed to be immune to wild price swings, making them ideal for buying and selling more volatile coins. The token’s importance to the market is clear: Tethers in circulation are worth about $62 billion and they underpin more than half of all Bitcoin trades.
U.S. Mega Banks Were Sitting on $6.56 Billion of Chinese Education Stocks that China Just Eviscerated - Pam Martens - According to their latest 13F form filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as of March 31, 2021 the U.S. mega banks on Wall Street held a staggering $6.56 billion in three Chinese education stocks that just had their business model put through a shredder by the Chinese Communist Party. As of yesterday’s close, that $6.56 billion is now worth about 90 percent less than it was on March 31. Depending on just when these mega banks started panic dumping their positions, their losses could be substantial.New Oriental Education & Technology (stock symbol EDU), Gaotu Techedu (which previously went by the name GSX Techedu) (stock symbol is now GOTU), and TAL Education Group (stock symbol TAL) were all trading below $7 a share shortly after the market opened this morning. New Oriental has gone from a share price of more than $19 in February to become a $2 stock this morning. Gaotu Techedu is trading this morning at $3 and change from an intraday high of more than $149 in late January. TAL Education has a $6 handle this morning, down from an intraday high of over $90 in February.More than half of the $6.56 billion in U.S. mega bank exposure came from Morgan Stanley’s eye-popping $3.6 billion in these three stocks. Bizarrely, Morgan Stanley had 89 percent of its total exposure to the three companies in just one stock – Tal Education Group. Its 13F shows Morgan Stanley held $3.2 billion in TAL as of March 31, 2021.The second largest exposure was JPMorgan Chase’s $1 billion in the three stocks. Goldman Sachs showed exposure of $597 million to the three stocks on its 13F filing while Bank of America came in fourth place with $454.7 million. Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup and Wells Fargo each had approximately $300 million in exposure to the three stocks.All three Chinese companies provide private education services to students in China and all three companies are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Their business prospects have now become severely limited by Chinese mandate. Regulations issued over the weekend by China’s Ministry of Education now bar these private tutoring and online education platforms from making profits from the core curriculum taught in schools in China, from capital raising, and from being traded on foreign stock exchanges. Our first thought was that this might be another Archegos type of debacle where the banks were reporting the stock positions on their own 13F forms while the shares were actually owned via derivatives by hedge funds. But according to the 13F forms, the banks hold the sole voting power in the vast majority of these shares.In addition to the U.S. banks listed here, foreign banks also had significant amounts of exposure as of their 13F filings on March 31, 2021.
The security risks lurking for banks still using mainframes - A data security standard recommending strong security for banks that handle credit, debit or ATM transactions through a mainframe is expected to get even tougher in the coming months. It points to a need for banks to pay more attention to PCI compliance and, some experts say, to rethink the use of mainframes for ATM and card transactions. Late last year, the PCI Security Standards Council and ATM Industry Association jointly issued a bulletin warning about cash-out attacks on ATMs in which fraudsters manipulated fraud detection mechanisms and stole money from ATMs. In a blog, the organizations recommended that banks operating ATMs through a mainframe use software designed to monitor any unusual changes in files that could indicate unauthorized access or malicious behavior. Such software is referred to as file integrity monitoring. File integrity monitoring became part of PCI regulation updates two years ago to address new needs as technology advances. But though banks continue to lean on mainframes to process most transactions, including payments, experts wonder whether they are paying enough attention to this PCI recommendation. According to IBM, 44 of the top 50 banks use the IBM Z mainframe and 86% of all credit card transactions run through the Z mainframe.
House committee advances bill to address Libor transition —The House Financial Services Committee voted Thursday to advance a bill to address the transition away from the London interbank offered rate, months after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen endorsed the need for legislation on the issue.Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., sponsored the Adjustable Interest Rate (LIBOR) Act of 2021, which, if enacted, would establish a process for legacy financial contracts to automatically swap in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate — a benchmark recommended by the Alternative Reference Rates Committee — when most Libor settings end in 2023.The bill is aimed at allowing contracts to quickly adopt a version of SOFR instead of Libor without the need for litigation. The legislation would authorize the Fed to issue rules dealing with the use of SOFR in Libor-based contracts.
Banking bills doomed in Congress still credited with fostering change — In an extremely polarized Congress, the odds of Democratic leaders advancing progressive reforms to shake up financial services are slim to none.It may not matter.Democrats such as Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown of Ohio, and House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters of California have pushed bills to offer free, federally backed accounts, restrict overdraft fees and cap consumer loan interest rates at 36%.
SBA gives banks a break on PPP loan forgiveness The Small Business Administration will allow borrowers with Paycheck Protection Program loans of $150,000 or less to apply online for forgiveness directly from the agency.Lenders will have to opt in to allow the SBA to process the applications, and they will still issue a decision on whether to grant forgiveness, according to rulemaking documents the agency issued to the industry Wednesday. The portal will open on Aug. 4, the SBA said.The initiative, which the SBA touted as a way to start closing down a program that launched in April 2020, was welcomed by banks that are still dealing with the cost of processing applications from borrowers who want forgiveness. Through May, banks had funneled nearly $800 billion in forgivable PPP loans to small businesses hurt by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Small banks face bigger threat to overdraft fees this time around -After prevailing the last time a Democrat was in the White House, small banks are again gearing up for a fight over overdraft fees, but the regulatory terrain now looks tougher. Several forces are converging to threaten the income that small banks generate from overdrafts. Those factors include stepped-up pressure from Democrats in Congress, tougher talk from regulators and a recent wave of product changes at regional banks that will reduce their overdraft revenue and could put pressure on smaller competitors to follow suit. “If you’re a community bank, the risk of overdraft reform has significantly increased,” said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, though he noted that any regulatory initiatives may take years to be completed.
Proposed 36% APR cap is tough sell to GOP, banks — In 2006, Congress passed a bipartisan measure imposing a 36% interest rate cap on loans to members of the military. But a Democratic proposal to extend that cap to all consumer loans has a much steeper climb.The usury limit plan has percolated for a few years on Capitol Hill, but with Democrats now controlling both chambers of Congress and the White House, they are attempting to shine a brighter light on the idea.Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, said at a hearing Thursday that 36% rate limits enacted in a number of states — including both ballot initiatives and legislative measures — demonstrate that there is support for enacting a federal cap.
FTC Votes 5-0 to Crack Down on Companies For Thwarting Right to Repair - by Jerri-Lynn Scofield - The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Wednesday voted 5-0 to issue a policy statementoutlining a new enforcement policy for right to repair restrictions. This initiative comes as no surprise. In May, the FTC published a report , Nixing the Fix: an FTC Report to Congress on Repair Initiatives discussing the issue (see Big Tech Goes All In to Thwart Right to Repair Initiatives). And earlier this month, as part of a broader executive order to promote competition, President Joe Biden directed the FTC to address restrictions that thwart consumer efforts to repair products they own (see Steve Wozniak Endorses the Right to Repair). The policy statement explained the FTC’s basis and rationale for the new policy:Restricting consumers and businesses from choosing how they repair products can substantially increase the total cost of repairs, generate harmful electronic waste, and unnecessarily increase wait times for repairs. In contrast, providing more choice in repairs can lead to lower costs, reduce e-waste by extending the useful lifespan of products, enable more timely repairs, and provide economic opportunities for entrepreneurs and local businesses.In 2019, the Commission convened a workshop on “Nixing the Fix” and sought input from consumers, independent businesses, manufacturers, and others. Through this work, the Commission uncovered evidence that manufacturers and sellers may, without reasonable justification, be restricting competition for repair services in numerous ways, including: imposing physical restrictions (e.g., the use of adhesives); limiting the availability of parts, manuals, diagnostic software, and tools to manufacturers’ authorized repair networks; using designs that make independent repairs less safe; limiting the availability of telematics information (i.e., information on the operation and status of a vehicle that is collected by a system contained in the vehicle and wirelessly relayed to a central location, often the manufacturer or dealer of the vehicle); asserting patent rights and enforcement of trademarks in an unlawful, overbroad manner; disparaging non-OEM parts and independent repair; using unjustified software locks, digital rights management, and technical protection measures; and imposing restrictive end user license agreements.The Commission’s report on repair restrictions explores and discusses a number of these issues and describes the hardships repair restrictions create for families and businesses. The Commission is concerned that this burden is borne more heavily by underserved communities, including communities of color and lower-income Americans. The pandemic exacerbated these effects as consumers relied more heavily on technology than ever before Noting that “unlawful repair restrictions have generally not been an enforcement priority for a number of years,” the policy statement succinctly outlined the legal steps the FTC will take to enforce the right to repair. These rely on existing statutory authority, including antitrust laws, the Magnuson-Moss Warranty Act, and Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act.
Brown wants CFPB to investigate reports of Chime account closures -Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, urged the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to address the risks posed by Chime, a San Francisco fintech that sparked a backlash this year after closing consumer accounts without warning.Brown sent a letter to acting CFPB Director Dave Uejio Tuesday urging him to address the problems at Chime and other digital-only financial companies that claim to provide financial services to people not served by traditional banks.Chime launched a broad marketing campaign this year by promising to speed up payments from federal stimulus checks and unemployment insurance, only to abruptly shutter some accounts while alleging fraudulent activity.
Three reforms CDFIs need to help build stronger communities | American Banker -No one can reasonably deny that when the overall economy gets a cold, low- and moderate-income individuals and neighborhoods get the flu, largely through no imprudence of their own. History proves that lower-income families, particularly those comprising people of color, get fired first and rehired last. As a result, no matter how hard they work to save, they’re almost always left a step behind. The Great Recession was a clear example: While a range of big banking institutions were given taxpayer bailouts, more modest communities were left with a Sisyphean boulder. As we emerge from the pandemic, the cycle is apt to repeat itself.One tool we should use to address this perennial problem has emerged from the world of finance. Despite decades of often fruitful work inducing ordinary banks to serve lower-income communities, many poorer neighborhoods today remain inundated with check-cashing storefronts and pawnbrokers. Many lower-income borrowers have little choice but to deal with loan sharks who make it unreasonably expensive to build real credit and to climb the economic ladder.Fortunately, beyond encouraging banks to serve these lower-income communities, a third alternative has emerged. Appearing to consumers much like an ordinary bank, but operating against a different set of incentives, community development financial institutions, or CDFIs, such as Industrial Bank in Washington, D.C., and Southern Bancorp in Arkansas, are proving to be an indispensable tool in the fight against endemic poverty. But they have yet to be scaled. We need to take several steps to drive CDFI growth and success around the country.
New York regulator will collect, publish diversity data from banks New York regulators are asking the financial institutions they supervise to disclose data about the diversity of their boards and senior leadership, which state officials plan to publish on an aggregate basis.In a letter to regulated firms, the state's department of financial services characterized the move as a first step in helping the industry improve on current diversity efforts. The agency plans to collect data related to the gender, racial and ethnic makeup of companies’ boards and senior management, as well as information about board tenure, at the end of 2019 and 2020. And that initial request for diversity-related may not be the last such effort by the New York agency. Superintendent Linda Lacewell stated in the letter that the department will consider collecting and disclosing more granular data from regulated firms in the future.
Will states lead the way on expanding CRA to nonbanks? — After decades of calls to expand the Community Reinvestment Act’s anti-redlining obligations to nonbanks, the idea is going mainstream thanks to key endorsements from states and even the chairman of the Federal Reserve.Earlier this year, Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois signed the Illinois Community Reinvestment Act. The law — similar to a decades-old law in Massachusetts — effectively creates a state-level CRA framework mirroring the federal regime that assesses banks' lending and investment in low- and moderate-income areas. The difference is the Illinois measure also applies to state-chartered credit unions and nonbank mortgage companies. That move followed a step by the New York State Department of Financial Services, which issued a report recommending that state legislators amend the state’s version of CRA to apply the law’s obligations to nonbank mortgage lenders. Fed Chair Jerome Powell even weighed in on the issue in May, indicating his support for Congress to subject nondepositories to CRA requirements.
State regulator group issues standards for nonbank mortgage servicers - The Conference of State Bank Supervisors has unveiled bank-like prudential standards for overseeing nonbank mortgage servicers.The CSBS’ board of directors on Tuesday released the model standards, which states may adopt voluntarily, after taking into account public feedback on a proposal it issued in 2020.The standards resemble the capital and liquidity requirements proposed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency for mortgages serviced for the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Though FHFA’s standards apply only to Fannie and Freddie, the CSBS standards also take into account nonagency mortgages.
Don't let Supreme Court's ruling turn FHFA into a political agency | American Banker - Hours after the Supreme Court made clear his authority to do so, President Biden fired Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria. As a result, the FHFA, established to be an independent regulator, is now no different from any executive agency: with each new president, one may reasonably expect a swift replacement of the FHFA director. With the FHFA director now fully accountable to the president, the director has a duty to carry out the president’s policy views and priorities. Yet the director also retains statutory responsibility to safeguard the operational and financial health of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and the Federal Home Loan banks while ensuring that “the operations and activities of each regulated entity foster liquid, efficient, competitive, and resilient national housing finance markets.” The primary concern of any safety and soundness regulator is market stability. Regulated financial institutions expect and rely upon consistency and transparency in prudential standards and supervision. The adverse consequences of politicizing regulatory oversight in a manner that could conflict with safety and soundness is why Congress created independent regulatory agencies in the first place.
Appeals court throws out $59 million penalty in CFPB mortgage case -An appeals court has vacated a $59 million judgment in a lawsuit brought by Consumer Financial Protection Bureau against two mortgage repair firms and their attorney-founders.The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit last week threw out the restitution award imposed on the Mortgage Law Group and the Consumer First Legal Group in 2019. The case, which could challenge the CFPB's restitution authority, was sent back to the lower court to recalculate penalties.A three-judge panel for the appeals court determined that the appropriate measure for restitution should be calculated based on a company’s net profits, not revenue, which could affect other CFPB cases, experts said.
Fees paid to Fannie and Freddie could help fund infrastructure plan — The Senate’s nearly $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure proposal would be partially funded with an extension of the hike in guarantee fees charged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.Congress originally mandated the 10-basis-point increase in fees lenders pay the government-sponsored enterprises in 2011 to fund payroll tax relief. That add-on was set to expire later this year. But in a move sure to upset the mortgage industry, legislators are now considering extending the additional fee to provide $21 billion in funding for the infrastructure package, according to a summary of the bill. The full text has yet to be finalized. Under the infrastructure plan, lawmakers also propose raising $28 billion for the package by applying information reporting requirements to digital assets, including cryptocurrency. Under that proposal, businesses would have to report crypto transactions of at least $10,000.
Nonbank lenders balk at Ginnie Mae capital plan - A Ginnie Mae proposal to introduce a risk-based capital requirement for nonbanks has sparked an outcry from mortgage lenders that originate the vast majority of loans to first-time homebuyers and minorities. Ginnie issued a request for input in early July on a plan that would impose added net worth and liquidity requirements for all issuers. It would also subject nonbank lenders to a 10% risk-based capital ratio with a risk weight of 250% for mortgage servicing rights — dramatically higher than the calculation for other assets. State and federal regulators have sought for years to impose prudential regulation and stress-testing on nonbank lenders but the new Ginnie plan is the first to include a risk-based capital standard.
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in June --Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 1.86%, down from 2.01% in May. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 2.48% in June 2020. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus. This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed. Also - for multifamily - delinquencies were at 0.15%, down from 0.19% in May, and down from the peak of 0.20% in April 2021.
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in June -Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 2.08% in June, from 2.24% in May. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.65% in June 2020.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 5.04% are seriously delinquent (down from 5.27% in May). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (2% of portfolio), 8.75% are seriously delinquent(down from 9.09%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 1.69% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.82%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Slightly Decreases to 3.48%" - Note: This is as of July 18th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Slightly Decreases to 3.48%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 3.50% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.48% as of July 18, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.74 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 1.81%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 1 basis point to 4.35%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 5 basis points to 7.38%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers remained the same relative to the prior week at 3.68%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 1 basis point to 3.61%. “As is typical for mid-month reporting, forbearance exits slowed, and there was a slight increase in new requests. The net result was a small drop in the share of loans in forbearance – the 21 st consecutive week of declines,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The forbearance share decreased for GSE and Ginnie Mae loans, but increased for portfolio and PLS loans, as new forbearance requests increased for this category.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week: from 0.03% to 0.04%"
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly -Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of July 27th.From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearances See Weekly Rise: After the last couple of weeks of volumes remaining flat, we did see some movement in the number of active forbearance plans this past week. According to our McDash Flash daily Forbearance Tracker data, the total number of active plans is up by 31,000 since last Tuesday.Such upward movement late in the month has been relatively common in the recovery to date. Plan removals are clustered early in the month, which tends to lead to some degree of restart activity as the month progresses.Despite this increase, there are still 163,000 (-7.9%) fewer plans than at the same time last month. As of July 27, 1.9 million borrowers remain in COVID-19 forbearance plans, making up 3.6% of all active mortgages and 2.0% of GSE, 6.3% of FHA/VA and 4.4% of Portfolio/PLS loans.Forbearances rose most significantly among loans held in bank portfolios or private label securities – which were up 35,000 for the week – with FHA/VA mortgages seeing a slight uptick in plans as well (+1,000). The 5,000-plan decline among GSE loans offset just a small share of the total weekly rise.There are still some 179,000 plans are still scheduled to be reviewed for extension/removal in July, which provides some substantial opportunity for improvement next week.While still low, new forbearance plan starts hit their highest weekly level since late March, with restart activity also remaining elevated. Roughly 2/3 of all starts over the past week were restarts. Removal volumes were the lowest since late May given the low volume of review activity at this time of month.
Eleven million families in the US at risk of losing their homes as CDC eviction moratorium set to expire - An historic and devastating wave of evictions and foreclosures looms, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) federal eviction moratorium set to expire at the end of this week, on July 31. With just days to go, there is no indication the Biden administration is going to extend it. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki boasted in a press conference on Friday about vague efforts by the Biden administration to “help people with government-backed mortgages stay in their homes through monthly payment reductions and potential loan modifications.” Noticeably absent was any reference to the end of the moratorium or relief for renters. At his CNN town hall event on Wednesday, President Biden did not even speak about the housing crisis. Nor did he say anything about it on Friday when he spoke at a campaign rally in Arlington in support of Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s run for governor of Virginia. Last year exceeded the $10 trillion mark in housing debt for the first time in history, according to the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report, reaching levels higher than those seen in the third quarter of 2008, which reached just under $10 trillion. This creates the obvious preconditions, paired with job losses, attacks on workers' wages and a new surge in the pandemic, for an immense foreclosure crisis. Despite the CDC’s moratorium, which was issued on September 4, 2020 as state-level moratoriums expired, over 444,000 evictions have been ordered during the pandemic, with over 6,600 in the week preceding July 17, according to Princeton University’s Eviction Lab. According to the Eviction Lab, neighborhoods with the highest eviction filing rates have the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rates. The housing crisis presents an immediate danger to public health, especially given the spread of COVID-19 among the homeless population, which many of those being evicted or foreclosed on will join. Much of the $47 billion in federal aid for renters provided under pandemic stimulus programs is being held up by state governments, with the end of the moratorium expected to create a surge in evictions the money was ostensibly intended to prevent. According to figures released in March by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, 11 million families are at risk of losing housing, with 2.1 million being at least three months behind on mortgage payments, while 8.8 million are behind on rent.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey:Mortgage applications increased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 23, 2021. ... The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 10 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “The 10-year Treasury yield fell last week, as investors grew concerned about increasing COVID-19 case counts and the downside risks to the current economic recovery. Refinance applications jumped, as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to its lowest level since February 2021, and the 15-year rate fell to another record low dating back to 1990,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Refinances for conventional loans increased over 11%. With over 95% of refinance applications for fixed rate mortgages, borrowers are looking to secure a lower rate for the life of their loan.” “The purchase index decreased for the second week in a row to its lowest level since May 2020, and has now declined on an annual basis for the past three months. Potential buyers continue to be put off by extremely high home prices and increased competition. The FHFA reported yesterday that May home prices were 18% higher than a year ago, continuing a seven-month trend of unprecedented home-price growth.” .. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $548,250) decreased to 3.11 percent from 3.13 percent, with points decreasing to 0.27 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With low rates, the index remains elevated, and increased this week as rates declined. The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 18% year-over-year unadjusted. Note: The year ago comparisons for the unadjusted purchase index are now difficult since purchase activity picked up in late May 2020.Home Ownership Rate: 65.6% in Q2 2021 -The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q2 2021. The seasonally adjusted rate for Q2 is 65.6 percent, unchanged from Q1. The nonseasonally adjusted Q2 number is 65.4 percent, down from the Q1 2021 65.6 percent figure. Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership continued to struggle. The recent recession as a result of the COVID-19 global pandemic caused a massive, but brief, jump in homeownership due to grossly reduced spending.Here's an excerpt from the press release:Announcement: Due to the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), data collection operations for the CPS/HVS were slightly affected during the second quarter of 2021, though to a much lesser extent than last year, as in-person interviews were allowed for 99 percent of the country. The remaining interviews were conducted over the telephone. If the Field Representative was unable to get contact information on the sample unit, the unit was made a Type A noninterview (no one home, refusal, etc). We are unable to determine the extent to which this data collection change affected our estimates. See the FAQ for more information.National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2021 were 6.2 percent for rental housing and 0.9 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than the rate in the second quarter 2020 (5.7 percent) and 0.6 percentage points lower than the rate in the first quarter 2021 (6.8 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.9 percent was virtually the same as the rate in the second quarter 2020 (0.9 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the first quarter 2021 (0.9 percent).The homeownership rate of 65.4 percent was 2.5 percentage points lower than the rate in the second quarter 2020 (67.9 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2021 (65.6 percent). Data users should see the FAQ regarding statistical comparisons to quarters affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.The Census Bureau has been tracking the nonseasonally adjusted data since 1965. Their seasonally adjusted version only goes back to 1980. Here is a snapshot of the nonseasonally adjusted series with a 4-quarter moving average to highlight the trend.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.7% in May, All Time High - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for May. Here is the opening of the press release:– House prices rose nationwide in May, up 1.7 percent from the previous month, according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 18.0 percent from May 2020 to May 2021. The previously reported 1.8 percent price change for April 2021 was unrevised. For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from April 2021 to May 2021 ranged from +1.0 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +2.4 percent in the Pacific division. The 12-month changes ranged from +15.4 percent in the West South Central division to +23.2 percent in the Mountain division.“House prices continued their record-setting growth into May,” said Dr. Lynn Fisher, FHFA’s Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics. “This trend will likely continue around the country as busy summer homebuying months maintain the pressure being felt in already tight housing markets.” The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 16.6% year-over-year in May --S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Record High Annual Home Price Gain Of 16.6% In May The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 16.6% annual gain in May, up from 14.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.4%, up from 14.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 17.0% year-over-year gain, up from 15.0% in the previous month.Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in May. Phoenix led the way with a 25.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego with a 24.7% increase and Seattle with a 23.4% increase. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending May 2021 versus the year ending April 2021....Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 2.1% month-over-month increase in May, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.9% and 2.1%, respectivelyAfter seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.7%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. In May, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.The 16.6% gain is the highest reading in more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data. As was the case last month, five cities – Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, and Seattle – joined the National Composite in recording their all-time highest 12-month gains. Price gains in all 20 cities were in the top quartile of historical performance; in 17 cities, price gains were in top decile.“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by reaction to the COVID pandemic, as potential buyers move from urban apartments to suburban homes. May’s data continue to be consistent with this hypothesis. This demand surge may simply represent an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in locational preferences, leading to a permanent shift in the demand curve for housing. More time and data will be required to analyze this question. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "Expected to decelerate", 16.2% YoY in June - The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: May 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Growth Continues Climb The forces that have propelled home price growth to new highs over the past year remain in place and are offering little evidence of abating. ... The housing market’s historically tight inventory conditions finally started to ease in May, but that did little to immediately tame the record-strong home price appreciation that the market has experienced in recent months. The number available homes across the nation finally ticked up this spring, albeit from a historically low reference point, after spending most of the last year in a steady decline. Still, price pressures remain very firm and appear ready to stay that way in the months to come. Indeed, sharply-rising prices do appear to have priced out some home shoppers, particularly those looking to enter the market for the first time, and causing fatigue among would-be buyers. But overall demand for homes remains very firm, as bidding wars persist and the still-relatively few homes available for sales continue to fly off the shelves at a historically fast pace. Increased inventory levels should eventually help tame the record-high pace of price appreciation, but it’s going to take a while. Monthly and annual growth in June as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to deceleratefrom May and April 2020 in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, August 24. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 16.2% in June, from 16.6% in May.
New Home Sales Decrease to 676,000 Annual Rate in June - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. The previous three months were revised down sharply. Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.6 percent below the revised May rate of 724,000 and is 19.4 percent below the June 2020 estimate of 839,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. This is the start of likely year-over-year declines since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply increased in June to 6.3 months from 5.5 months in May. The all time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020. This is above the normal range (about 4 to 6 months supply is normal). Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973. The inventory of completed homes for sale is just above the record low, but the combined total of completed and under construction is close to normal. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In June 2021 (red column), 60 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 79 thousand homes were sold in June. The all time high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for June was 28 thousand in 2010 and in 2011. This was well below expectations of 800 thousand sales SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly.
A few Comments on June New Home Sales - New home sales for June were reported at 676,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised down significantly. This was well below consensus expectations for June, and probably the start of a number of months with year-over-year declines. However, sales were in line with home builder comments about "limiting sales", closing communities and limited finished inventory. Earlier: New Home Sales Decrease to 676,000 Annual Rate in June.This graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The year-over-year comparisons were easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April. However, sales will likely be down year-over-year in the 2nd half of 2021 - since the selling season was delayed in 2020.And on inventory: note that completed inventory (3rd graph in previous post) is near record lows, but inventory under construction is closer to normal. This graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction.The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 36 thousand in June, just above the record low of 33 thousand in March and April 2021. That is about 0.6 months of completed supply (just above the record low).The inventory of new homes under construction, and not started, is at 5.6 months - slightly above the normal level. However, a record 105 thousand homes have not been started - about double the normal level.
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 1.9% in June -From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fall 1.9% in June: Pending home sales declined marginally in June after recording a notable gain in May, the National Association of Realtors® reported. Contract activity was split in the four major U.S. regions from both a year-over-year and month-over-month perspective. The Northeast recorded the only yearly gains in June. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 1.9% to 112.8 in June. Year-over-year, signings also slipped 1.9%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....The Northeast PHSI increased 0.5% to 98.5 in June, an 8.7% rise from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index grew 0.6% to 108.3 last month, down 2.4% from June 2020.Pending home sales transactions in the South fell 3.0% to an index of 132.4 in June, down 4.7% from June 2020. The index in the West decreased 3.8% in June to 98.1, down 2.6% from a year prior. This was below expectations of a 0.5% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in July and August.
Q2 2021 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate - The BEA released the underlying details for the Q2 advance GDP report today. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 7.0% annual pace in Q2. Note that weakness in non-residential structures started in 2019, before the pandemic. Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased sharply in Q2 compared to Q1, and was up 46% year-over-year. However, investment in petroleum and natural gas structures is still down over 60% from the peak in 2014. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in offices (blue) decreased in Q2, and was down 9.0% year-over-year. Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was down about 19% year-over-year in Q2 - and at a record low as a percent of GDP. The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time. Lodging investment increased slightly in Q2 compared to Q1, but lodging investment was down 19% year-over-year. All three sectors - offices, malls, and hotels - are being hurt significantly by the pandemic. The second graph is for Residential investment components as a percent of GDP. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes). Even though investment in single family structures has increased from the bottom, single family investment is just approaching normal levels as a percent of GDP. Investment in single family structures was $405 billion (SAAR) (about 1.8% of GDP), and up 45% year-over-year. Investment in multi-family structures increased in Q2. Investment in home improvement was at a $331 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q2 (about 1.5% of GDP). Home improvement spending has been strong during the pandemic. Note that Brokers' commissions (black) increased sharply last year as existing home sales increased in the second half of 2020, but was down in Q2. Brokers' commissions were up 49% year-over-year in Q2.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 8% Compared to Same Week in 2019 --Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.The occupancy rate is down 7.8% compared to the same week in 2019. From CoStar: STR: US Weekly Hotel Occupancy Reaches Highest Level Since October 2019: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy reached its highest level since October 2019, while room rates hit an all-time high, according to STR‘s latest data through July 24.
July 18-24, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 71.4% (-7.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $141.75 (+4.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $101.24 (-4.2%)
Historically, the middle weeks of July are the country’s highest occupancy weeks each year, and 2021 has been no different even as demand slows week to week.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid. With solid leisure travel, the Summer months have had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel.
Las Vegas Visitor Authority for June: Convention Attendance N/A, Visitor Traffic Down 18% Compared to 2019 -From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: June 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Marking the sixth consecutive month of MoM gains, June saw the destination host more than 2.9 million visitors, +3.2% MoM and down ‐17.6% vs. June 2019.
While convention and group data continue to be gathered, the return of several conventions including World of Concrete, Surfaces, Nightclub & Bar and the Int'l Esthetics, Cosmetics & Spa Conference helped support midweek business. Hotel occupancy continued to improve, reaching 75.9% (up 5.0 pts MoM, down ‐15.8 pts vs. June 2019), as Weekend occupancy neared 90% (89.4%) and Midweek occupancy reached 70.9% (up 8.1 pts MoM, down ‐18.8 pts vs. June 2019.) The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red).Visitor traffic was down 17.6% compared to the same month in 2019 There had been no convention traffic since March 2020, but there were a few conventions in June (data not available yet). I'll add a graph of convention traffic once convention data is available. Note: Conventions started again in June, but the data isn't available yet.
Personal Income increased 0.1% in June, Spending increased 1.0% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, June 2021 and Annual Update report: Personal income increased $26.1 billion (0.1 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $2.6 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $155.4 billion (1.0 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.5 percent in June and Real PCE increased 0.5 percent; goods decreased 0.2 percent and services increased 0.8 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. The June PCE price index increased 4.0 percent year-over-year and the June PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 3.5 percent year-over-year.The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income and personal spending were above expectations, and the increase in PCE was slightly below expectations.
June personal income and spending show pandemic cushion approaching depletion --How well personal income and spending held up throughout the pandemic is one of the best things about the government response. For June, nominal personal income increased 0.1%. After inflation, however, it decreased -0.4%. Nominal personal spending increased 1.0%. After inflation, it still increased 0.5%. Here are the real figures for both personal spending and disposable income: Expenditures are up 2.7% since right before the pandemic, while income is up 3.3%. Here is how real personal spending compares with the other side of the coin, real retail sales: Both of these have returned to basically normal levels m/m. While the stimulus has abated, spending hasn’t crashed. That’s a good thing. The cushion of the increased pandemic stimulus has also largely faded in the personal savings rate: This tells us that within the next few months that cushion is probably going to be exhausted, and consumers are going to have to stand on their own.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in June Down 0.6%, Revisions Made - With the release of this morning's report on June's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -0.04% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.55% when we adjust for inflation. This is an increase from last month's -2.74% nominal and -3.33% real decreases. The year-over-year metrics are 0.46% nominal and -3.41% real.Post-Great recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of COVID pandemic stimulus measures, major spikes can be seen in April 2020, January 2021 (a December 2020 payment), and March 2021.The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by COVID stimulus. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 112% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 41.9%.
Consumer Confidence Mostly Unchanged in July - The headline number of 129.1 was an increase of 0.2 from the final reading of 128.9 for June. This was above the Investing.com consensus of 123.9. “Consumer confidence was flat in July but remains at its highest level since February 2020 (132.6),” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ appraisal of present-day conditions held steady, suggesting economic growth in Q3 is off to a strong start. Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook didn’t waver, and they continued to expect that business conditions, jobs, and personal financial prospects will improve. Short-term inflation expectations eased slightly but remained elevated. Spending intentions picked up in July, with a larger percentage of consumers saying they planned to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances in the coming months. Thus, consumer spending should continue to support robust economic growth in the second half of 2021.”Read more…The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.
Durable-Goods Orders Advanced in June as U.S. Economy Continues to Grow – WSJ - Orders for cars, appliances and other durable goods increased in June, signaling continued strength in the U.S. economy as manufacturers continue to deal with shortages in parts and labor and confront higher material costs.New orders for products meant to last at least three years increased 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted $257.6 billion in June as compared with May, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had estimated a 2% gain. Orders increased 3.2% in May from the prior month, a slightly better reading than the previous estimate of 2.3%. Demand for durable goods has increased in 13 of the last 14 months.Low business and retail inventories have translated to increased demand for manufacturers, but supply-chain issues continue to constrain production and delay some shipments. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—so-called core capital-goods, a closely watched proxy for business investment—increased 0.5% in June from the previous month. The prior month such orders also were up 0.5%. “Despite supply chain challenges the outlook remains bright,” Wells Fargo Securities economists Tim Quinlan and Sarah House said in their analysis following the release, citing continued gains in core capital goods orders.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Continued Strength in July -Fifth District manufacturing activity showed continued growth in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose to 27 from 26 in June and indicates expansion.The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series. Here is an excerpt from the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview:Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index inched up from 26 in June to 27 in July, buoyed by increases in the shipments and employment indexes, while the third component index — new orders — declined but remained in expansionary territory. The indexes for inventories of raw materials and of finished goods declined, as both of these indexes hit record lows, and vendor lead times continued to lengthen. Manufacturers were optimistic that business conditions would improve further in the coming months. Link to ReportHere is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.
July Dallas Fed Manufacturing - This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for July. The latest general business activity index came in at 27.3, down 3.8 from 31.1 in June. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is an excerpt from the latest report:Texas factory activity continued its robust expansion in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged at 31.0, a reading well above average and indicative of strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also pointed to continued growth this month.Expectations regarding future manufacturing activity remained optimistic in July. The future production index slipped eight points to 48.4, and the future general business activity index was unchanged at 37.1. Most other measures of future manufacturing activity declined but remained solidly in positive territory. Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator.
July Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview -Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia.Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP.The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to their website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision. In December 2013, the monthly release of the CFMMI was suspended pending the release of updated benchmark data from the U.S. Census Bureau and a period of model verification. Significant revisions in the history of the CFMMI are anticipated." Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for July is 30, up from the previous month.
After Slashing 33% of Workers in 6 Years, Railroads Complain about Labor Shortages, amid Uproar over Slow Shipments - By Wolf Richter - So there are few hiccups in the US economy right now. James Foote, the chief executive of CSX, one of the largest railroads in the US, put it this way during the earnings call yesterday (transcript by Seeking Alpha): “I’ve never seen any kind of a thing like this in the transportation environment in my entire career where everything seems to be going sideways at the same time,” he said. “In January when I got on this [earnings] call, I said we were hiring because we anticipated growth. I fully expected that by now we would have about 500 new T&E [train and engine] employees on the property,” he said. “No way did I or anybody else in the last six months realize how difficult it was going to be to try and get people to come to work these days.” “It’s an enormous challenge for us to go out and find people that want to be conductors on the railroad, just like it’s hard to find people that want to be baristas or anything else, it’s very, very difficult,” he said. “Nor did we anticipate that a lot of the people were going to decide they didn’t want to work anymore. So attrition was much higher in the first half of the year than what we had expected,” he said. Railroads are grappling with a weird phenomenon that is a combination of “labor shortages” and 12.6 million people still claiming some form of unemployment compensation, amid stimulus-fueled demand. And this comes after railroads had spent six years shedding employees in order to tickle Wall Street analysts and pump up stock prices. The North American Class 1 freight railroads combined – BNSF, Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, CSX, Canadian National, Kansas City Southern, and Canadian Pacific – have tried to streamline their operations, using fewer but longer trains and making other changes, including under the strategy of “precision scheduled railroading,” implemented first by Canadian National, then by CSX. The resulting deterioration in service triggered numerous complaints from shippers. But one of the big benefits was that the workforce could be slashed, which fattened the profit margins at the railroads. Wall Street analysts loved it, and it was good for railroad stocks. By now, precision scheduled railroading has become the new religion at all Class 1 railroads except at BNSF, which has not officially adopted it, at least not completely. In the process, over the past six years, the Class 1 railroads have axed 33% of their workers through layoffs and attrition. According to the Surface of Transportation Board (STB), an independent federal agency that oversees freight railroads, the Class 1 railroads slashed their headcount from 174,000 workers in April 2015 to 116,000 workers in June 2021. The results of the efforts to hire people back this year are barely visible in the chart – that risible uptick in employment over the past few months. Turns out, it’s a lot easier to cut workers than it is to suddenly hire workers:
Global supply chains buckle as virus variant and disasters strike - (Reuters) - A new worldwide wave of COVID-19. Natural disasters in China and Germany. A cyber attack targeting key South African ports. Events have conspired to drive global supply chains towards breaking point, threatening the fragile flow of raw materials, parts and consumer goods, according to companies, economists and shipping specialists. The Delta variant of the coronavirus has devastated parts of Asia and prompted many nations to cut off land access for sailors. That's left captains unable to rotate weary crews and about 100,000 seafarers stranded at sea beyond their stints in a flashback to 2020 and the height of lockdowns. "We're no longer on the cusp of a second crew change crisis, we're in one," Guy Platten, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping, told Reuters. "This is a perilous moment for global supply chains." Given ships transport around 90% of the world's trade, the crew crisis is disrupting the supply of everything from oil and iron ore to food and electronics. German container line Hapag Lloyd described the situation as "extremely challenging". "Vessel capacity is very tight, empty containers are scarce and the operational situation at certain ports and terminals is not really improving," it said. "We expect this to last probably into the fourth quarter – but it is very difficult to predict." Meanwhile, deadly floods in economic giants China and Germany have further ruptured global supply lines that had yet to recover from the first wave of the pandemic, compromising trillions of dollars of economic activity that rely on them. The Chinese flooding is curtailing the transport of coal from mining regions such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, the state planner says, just as power plants need fuel to meet peak summer demand. In Germany, road transportation of goods has slowed significantly. In the week of July 11, as the disaster unfolded, the volume of late shipments rose by 15% from the week before, according to data from supply-chain tracking platform FourKites. Manufacturing industries are reeling. Automakers, for example, are again being forced to stop production because of disruptions caused by COVID-19 outbreaks. Toyota Motor Corp said this week it had to halt operations at plants in Thailand and Japan because they couldn't get parts. Stellantis temporarily suspended production at a factory in the U.K. because a large number of workers had to isolate to halt the spread of the virus. The industry has already been hit hard by a global shortage of semiconductors this year, mainly from Asian suppliers. Earlier this year, the auto industry consensus was that the chip supply crunch would ease in the second half of 2021 - but now some senior executives say it will continue into 2022. An executive at a South Korea auto parts maker, which supplies Ford, Chrysler and Rivian, said raw materials costs for steel which was used in all their products had surged partly due to higher freight costs.
U.S. Population Growth, an Economic Driver, Grinds to a Halt – WSJ - America’s weak population growth, already held back by a decadelong fertility slump, is dropping closer to zero because of the Covid-19 pandemic. In half of all states last year, more people died than were born, up from five states in 2019. Early estimates show the total U.S. population grew 0.35% for the year ended July 1, 2020, the lowest ever documented, and growth is expected to remain near flat this year.Some demographers cite an outside chance the population could shrink for the first time on record. Population growth is an important influence on the size of the labor market and a country’s fiscal and economic strength. One bad year doesn’t automatically spell trouble for future U.S. demographic health. What concerns demographers is that in the past, when a weak economy drove down births, it was often a temporary phenomenon that reversed once the economy bounced back.Yet after births peaked in 2007, they never rebounded from the nearly two-year recession that followed, even though Americans enjoyed a subsequent decade of economic growth.With the birthrate already drifting down, the nudge from the pandemic could result in what amounts to a scar on population growth, researchers say, which could be deeper than those left by historic periods of economic turmoil, such as the Great Depression and the stagnation and inflation of the 1970s, because it is underpinned by a shift toward lower fertility. “The economy of the developed world for the last two centuries now has been built on demographic expansion,” said Richard Jackson, president of the Global Aging Institute, a nonprofit research and education group. “We no longer have this long-term economic and geopolitical advantage.”
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 400,000 --- The DOL reported: In the week ending July 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 400,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 419,000 to 424,000. The 4-week moving average was 394,500, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,250 from 385,250 to 386,500.This does not include the 95,166 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 109,868 the previous week.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 394,500.The previous week was revised up.Regular state continued claims increased to 3,269,000 (SA) from 3,262,000 (SA) the previous week.There are an additional 5,246,162 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 5,133,938 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 4,233,883 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 4,134,716.Weekly claims were at the consensus forecast.
Hotel Jobs in New York, Illinois Hit Hardest by Coronavirus Pandemic -- New York and Illinois are among the states that have lost the highest percentage of hotel jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic and are still hurting even as travel starts to return to normal levels across the country, according to a new report. The data released this week by the American Hotel & Lodging Association shows that projections for the industry remain "well below pre-pandemic levels," according to a news release. The association notes that more than 1 in 5 direct hotel operations jobs lost during the pandemic – about 500,000 total – will not return by the end of 2021, and the lost room revenue will amount to $44 billion compared to 2019.In percentage terms compared to 2019, New York (37.9%), Illinois (35.2%), Massachusetts(30.2%) and Hawaii (28.8%) are the states that are seeing the biggest hotel job losses expected by the end of 2021, according to the association's state-by-state breakdown. The hotel industry in Washington, D.C. – also covered in the report – has been hit even harder, with job losses at 43.1%. COVID-19-induced hotel job losses for the country as a whole are nearly 21%, and 19 states have losses higher than the national average."Despite an uptick in leisure travel, midway through 2021 we're still seeing that the road to a full recovery for America's hotels is long and uneven," said Chip Rogers, the association's president and CEO, in a statement.Travel and tourism is coming back in the U.S. as restrictions lift, but Jennifer Myers, AHLA's senior director of government affairs communications, tells U.S. News via email that the recovery is happening "unevenly" with business travel lagging the recovery in leisure."While the recent uptick in leisure travel for summer is encouraging, business and group travel, the industry's largest source of revenue, will take significantly longer to recover," Myers says. "Business travel is down and not expected to return to 2019 levels until at least 2023 or 2024. Major events, conventions and business meetings have also already been canceled or postponed until at least 2022."
Walmart to offer free college tuition and books to employees as recruitment lags - Walmart announced on Tuesday that it will pay for college tuition and books for its associates as an incentive to attract more people to work for the company and grow their careers. The initiative, according to Walmart, is part of its Live Better U education program. The company is investing nearly $1 billion over the next five years for career-driven training and development. Previously, the retailer charged its employees $1 per day to participate in the program, and the company would pay for the rest of the educational costs. However, this fee will be removed for all associates beginning on Aug. 16, effectively making all education programs paid for by Walmart. “We are creating a path of opportunity for our associates to grow their careers at Walmart, so they can continue to build better lives for themselves and their families,” Lorraine Stomski, senior vice president of learning and leadership at Walmart, said in a statement. “This investment is another way we can support our associates to pursue their passion and purpose while removing the barriers that too often keep adult working learners from obtaining degrees,” she added. The Live Better U program was established three years ago to assist employees with moving up in the company, according to The Washington Post. The workers are able to select from 10 academic partners, including the University of Arizona, the University of Denver, Purdue University Global and Southern New Hampshire University, according to the Post. More than 52,000 Walmart employees have reportedly taken part in the program since 2018, with upwards of 8,000 graduating.
Americans Spent More Time Watching Television During COVID-19 Than Working - The coronavirus pandemic largely altered how people engage with the world, including how Americans spend their time. Perhaps most distinctively, the share of employed Americans working from home nearly doubled during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, rising to 42%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey, released on Thursday. As more Americans began working from home, average travel times decreased across all demographics, while the average time individuals spent alone increased, according to the survey, which measures the average amount of time per day individuals spent working, providing child care, traveling and engaging in leisure and sports activities, among other metrics. The survey uses data gathered between May and December of 2020 because of a temporary data collection suspension due to the coronavirus pandemic. After sleeping, Americans spent most of their time watching television, averaging about 3.1 hours per day – just slightly more time than they spent working.Across all demographics, the amount of time Americans spent engaged in leisure and sports activities, including watching television, increased during the coronavirus pandemic to just over 5.5 hours per day from 5 hours in 2019, according to the survey. Men saw a 37-minute increase in leisure time during the pandemic, whereas women gained 27 minutes, the survey says. Watching television, including watching live programming, viewing DVDs, and streaming shows on TV sets, computers and portable devices, occupied the most time in 2020 of any leisure activity, ranging from more than 5 hours per day for those 75 and older to just over 2 hours per day for those ages 35 to 44.But Americans in some states watch more television than others. The BLS produces state-by-state tables using data collected over a five year period, with the most recent data representing the period 2015-2019. The majority of the top 10 states that watch the most TV are in the South, while most states that average the least amount of time watching TV are in the West. Between 2015 and 2019, people in West Virginia watched the most television, logging more than 3.8 hours per day, followed by Alabama and Arkansas. On the other side of the list, Alaskans on average spend just over 1.8 hours per day watching TV, followed by Utahns and Washingtonians.These states watched the most television daily:
Panel to recommend Pa. move to mileage-based user fee as gas tax replacement to fund transportation needs -A mileage-based user fee, package delivery fee and a toll to use limited-access lanes are among the new revenue options a governor-appointed panel is making to meet Pennsylvania’s transportation funding needs going forward.No doubt the ideas the Transportation Revenue Options Commission (TROC) came up with will spark lively debate within the General Assembly but in the eyes of state Transportation Secretary Yassmin Gramian, who chaired the commission, they are 21st century solutions to help close a $9.25 billion a year funding gap that grows wider by the year.The 49-member commission met virtually on Wednesday to do a walk-through of a final draft of their report due to Gov. Tom Wolf by Sunday.Wolf charged the commission to come up with ideas to phase out the state’s gas tax – around 53 cents a gallon, the second-highest in the nation. PennDOT relies on that tax to fund 78% of its revenue needs, far more by percentage than neighboring states. With people driving less during the pandemic and some driving more fuel-efficient cars or electric vehicles, PennDOT officials say this tax no longer is able to generate the money that is needed to keep the state’s transportation network in good repair. Making that even more challenging is the cost of materials needed for transportation projects is continually rising driving the need for immediate action on addressing the PennDOT’s funding gap, said Chuck Zimmerman, PennDOT’s director of fiscal management. With that in mind, the commission proposed phasing in over five years, an 8.1-cent-per-mile user fee, doubling the state’s vehicle registration fee, a higher sales tax on vehicle purchases, an electric car fee, and among others, a goods delivery fee – under consideration in Denver and New York City — to take advantage of the public’s shift to buying products online and having them delivered to their home by trucks that put stress on roads and bridges.
Utilities disconnect 116,000 Pa. households after state lifts moratorium on pandemic shutoffs -Pennsylvania utilities have cut off service to 116,000 customers for nonpayment since the state lifted a moratorium on shutoffs on April 1 after astaggering number of unpaid bills piled up during the coronavirus pandemic.Though the shutoff number may appear large, utilities regulated by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission are actually disconnecting customers at a slower pace than they did in 2019, the year before the pandemic, allaying some concerns about a tsunami of shutoffs after the year-long moratorium was lifted.“We didn’t get a tidal wave we feared — this is very good news,” said Elizabeth R. Marx, executive director of the Pennsylvania Utility Law Project, which represents low-income customers. “But the numbers still trouble me.”Marx said there should be fewer shutoffs coming out of the pandemic because utilities put into place several new or expanded relief programs to assist customers. The PUC also required utilities to allow customers with large debts up to five years to pay overdue bills, a step to keep monthly payments affordable.Several utilities, such as Peco of Philadelphia, delayed residential terminations for several weeks after the moratorium was lifted, Marx said. PPL Electric Utilities, based in Allentown, waited until June to start residential shutoffs.Philadelphia Gas Works, the city-owned utility, ramped up shutoffs over the last three months — it disconnected no residential customers in April, 828 in May, and 3,578 in June, according to reports filed this month with the PUC. A representative of the utilities said the energy companies had always intended to ease out of the moratorium, hoping that the mass mailing of shutoff notices would induce customers to pay in full or enter into payment agreements.
The Washington Post will require employees to be vaccinated. - The Washington Post will require all employees to show that they are vaccinated against the coronavirus, the newspaper’s publisher said on Tuesday.The Post’s publisher, Frederick J. Ryan Jr., said in an email to staff that the company had decided to require proof of vaccination as a condition of employment, starting when workers return to the office in September, after hearing concerns from many employees about the emergence of coronavirus variants.“Even though the overwhelming majority of Post employees have already provided proof of vaccination, I do not take this decision lightly,” Mr. Ryan wrote in the email, which was viewed by The New York Times. “However, in considering the serious health issues and genuine safety concerns of so many Post employees, I believe the plan is the right one.”The Post, which is owned by the Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and employs more than 1,000 journalists, is planning for a Sept. 13 office return. Contractors and guests to the office would also be required to provide proof of vaccination, Mr. Ryan said. He said the company would provide accommodations for those with “documented medical conditions and religious concerns.”Mr. Ryan said in the email that all employees would come into the office three days a week in September in the first phase of the company’s return-to-office plan.Companies across the United States are wrestling with how to safely transition workers back to offices after nearly 18 months of remote work. The rising number of infections from the Delta variant has prompted many companies to rethink the return-to-office plans they announced in the spring.Many large companies have been resistant to mandating vaccines, wary of litigation, backlash and, in some instances, the risk of losing key employees. But as the vaccine has become more readily accessible, more companies have edged closer to some sort of requirement. CNN has mandated full vaccinations for all employees working in its various offices and in the field, a spokeswoman said on Tuesday. The investment bank Morgan Stanley said in June that, effective this month, visitors and employees in its New York offices would need to be vaccinated. Saks will require employees to be fully vaccinated when they start going to the office this fall. And Delta Air Lines is requiring new hires to be vaccinated.
Closing the Largest Generic Drug Plant in the US Is a Sick Joke But Joe Manchin’s daughter, a company executive, is laughing all the way to the bank. -- Carla Shultz has worked for 13 years at Mylan Pharmaceuticals here—a stable, union job at the largest manufacturer of generic drugs in the United States. With Covid-19 vaccines getting approved, Shultz imagined that new work might be opening up. Instead, Mylan’s workers were informed that the company’s new owners were closing the Morgantown flagship plant and shifting the work to India or Australia, effective July 31, 2021. “We’ve had no recalls. We’ve been FDA-ready every time. It’s a pristine plant with hard-working employees. It’s just unbelievable that they would shut us down,” said Shultz this month, standing outside the ranch house where her mother, Barbara, a coal miner’s widow, sat surrounded by family photographs, hooked up to an oxygen machine. “We are losing 2,000 jobs paying an average of $60,000 to $70,000 a year, workers that are buying homes…cars, that are paying for gas at the gas pump and going to the supermarkets; that are pumping money into the economy, as well as the tax dollars going into the school systems, into the sewage systems, the water facilities and so on,” says Gouzd. In a soon-to-be-released study commissioned by the Democracy Collaborative, economist Michael Shuman puts the losses associated with the shut-down in the hundreds of millions of dollars in a state, West Virginia, that already has the sixth highest poverty rate in the country. Schuman estimates that Viatris’s plans will suck $403 million in wages from the local economy and cause knock-on effects likely to result in the loss of 4,642 jobs, or nearly 6 percent of the jobs in Monongalia County. Add up the tax losses and secondary costs of depression, addiction, and potential drug and domestic abuse, and “It’s the economic equivalent of a nuclear bomb going off in the county economy,” says Shuman. The anticipation of reduced spending by Viatris has already caused the local water utility to increase its water rates on residents.Gouzd, like Shultz, has all sorts of questions. Among them: Why hasn’t West Virginia’s senior senator, Joe Manchin, made an effort to keep the plant open? Does it have anything to do with the fact that his daughter, Heather Bresch, was a top executive at Mylan for almost eight years, and worked there for almost three decades? Bresch, the second most highly paid executive in the Pittsburgh region, left the company upon the completion of the merger, receiving a golden parachute estimated to top $30.8 million, according to the Pittsburgh Business Journal.
As Arkansas and Missouri see a rise in COVID-19 cases, more economic protections are needed - EPI Blog - Key takeaways:
- As the Delta variant of COVID-19 spreads throughout the United States, Arkansas and Missouri are facing an even more dramatic spike in COVID-19 cases, in part due to lower vaccination rates. This puts many at risk and may contribute to long-term economic problems in the region.
- To mitigate these effects, Missouri and Arkansas policymakers must take immediate action to strengthen public health and the economy, including:
- Expanding Medicaid and eliminating barriers to benefits.
- Recommitting to the federal expansion of unemployment benefits to cushion the economic harm as business disruptions grow.
- Enacting paid sick leave and paid family and medical leave.
As COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations begin to rise again across the country, some states are more vulnerable than others. Neighboring states Missouri and Arkansas are in the middle of a serious COVID-19 spike along with Louisiana, Florida, and Mississippi. The number of cases per capita in the two states—about 52 new cases daily per 100,000 residents in Arkansas and 40 per 100,000 residents in Missouri—is more than twice the national average of 19. The seven-day rolling average of deaths in the two states is rising rapidly and is three times the national average. Mercy Hospital in Springfield, Missouri ran out of ventilatorsover the Fourth of July weekend. Hospitals across the state of Arkansas are already reaching maximum capacity—even as a record number of COVID-19 hospitalizations are anticipated in the coming weeks.The new Delta variant of COVID-19, which has caused new lockdowns in Australia and Malaysia and caused some nations to restrict incoming flights from Britain, has spread throughout these two states and is now the most dominant strain of the virus throughout the United States.Both Missouri and Arkansas are lagging behind the country in COVID-19 vaccinations, the primary factor in lowering the risk of hospitalization. Across the United States, 55% of the population has at least one shot, but in Missouri that rate is 47% and in Arkansas 45%. But even those numbers belie the situation in Arkansas’s northern and Missouri’s southern counties—most are below 30% fully vaccinated, and just 17% of Reynolds County, Missouri is fully vaccinated, including just one in three people over 65.
Visitation suspended at Louisiana prisons amid COVID-19 surge - The Louisiana Department of Public Safety and Corrections on Tuesday said it would be temporarily suspending visitation and volunteering at all state-run prisons as Louisiana is reporting record surges in COVID-19 infections among its largely unvaccinated population. The corrections agency announced in a press release that the suspension would remain in place until Aug. 16, at which point the department “will review and reconsider the need for these measures.” The move, which will immediately take effect at Louisiana's eight state-run prisons, was being taken “out of an abundance of caution concerning the latest surge of COVID-19 positive cases in Louisiana,” the department said. Visits had been reinstated at state prisons in March after a nearly yearlong suspension due to COVID-19 as several prisons across the country recorded virus outbreaks among inmates and staff. As of July 21, there were 26 active COVID-19 infections among Louisiana prison staff, with none recorded among prisoners, according to state data. The Louisiana corrections department said that while the visitation suspension is in place, inmates will continue to be offered two free phone calls per week, with video calling also available for a fee. The department said it “continues to make vaccinations available to all inmates,” with 68 percent of those incarcerated at Louisiana's state-run prisons already voluntarily vaccinated against COVID-19. “The DOC continues COVID screening with temperature checks and questions for anyone entering the state's prisons, including staff and vendors,” the department added. “The DPS&C has reminded its staff and inmates on social distancing and hand washing practices to reduce the potential spread of coronavirus.” The announcement comes the same day that Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) announced 169 new coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the state, the largest single-day increase since March 2020. The Louisiana Department of Health also recorded 6,797 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, the second-highest single-day surge since Jan. 6, when 6,882 cases were reported. Tennessee GOP state senators urge residents to get COVID-19
California to require state employees, health care workers be vaccinated -California on Monday announced that it would be requiring all state and health care workers to either provide proof of vaccination or be tested once a week for COVID-19. “We are now dealing with a pandemic of the unvaccinated, and it’s going to take renewed efforts to protect Californians from the dangerous Delta variant,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said in a press release. “As the state’s largest employer, we are leading by example and requiring all state and health care workers to show proof of vaccination or be tested regularly, and we are encouraging local governments and businesses to do the same," he added. "Vaccines are safe — they protect our family, those who truly can’t get vaccinated, our children and our economy. Vaccines are the way we end this pandemic.” Workers at high-risk settings such as hospitals, jails, care homes and homeless shelters will also be subject to these new rules. This new policy will go into effect beginning on Aug. 2. This moves echoes that of New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D), who announced on Monday that all city workers would be required to either get vaccinated or undergo weekly testing by Sept. 13 when schools return for the academic year. "Despite California leading the nation in vaccinations, with more than 44 million doses administered and 75 percent of the eligible population having received at least one dose, the state is seeing increasing numbers of people who refused to get the vaccine being admitted to the ICU and dying," the press release stated, pointing to a sharp increase in new cases that has been observed recently, nearly quadrupling since May.
San Francisco bars to require vaccine proof, negative COVID-19 tests to drink inside - A group that represents nearly 500 bars in San Francisco said on Monday that customers will be required to show proof of vaccination or a recent COVID-19 test showing a negative result in order to drink inside. The group, the San Francisco Bar Owner Alliance, confirmed to NBC News that its members would be implementing the new rules starting Thursday. In its statement announcing the new move, the group said it's “obligated to protect our workers and their families and to offer safe space for customers to relax and socialize.” The alliance reportedly added that the move came after it saw a number of bar workers come down with coronavirus infections despite being vaccinated. The announcement arrived the same day California said it would be requiring state employees and health care workers to show proof of vaccination or undergo weekly testing for the virus as it works to curb the spread of the disease amid rising cases of the delta variant. “We are now dealing with a pandemic of the unvaccinated, and it’s going to take renewed efforts to protect Californians from the dangerous Delta variant,” Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said in a press release. “As the state’s largest employer, we are leading by example and requiring all state and health care workers to show proof of vaccination or be tested regularly, and we are encouraging local governments and businesses to do the same," he said.
De Blasio mandates vaccines or weekly testing for New York City employees -New York City's entire public workforce will be required to either get vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly testing beginning on Sept. 13, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced on Monday. "This is about our recovery, this is about what we need to do to bring back New York City, this is about keeping people safe, this is about making sure our families get through COVID OK, this is about bringing back jobs. You name it," de Blasio said during his daily press briefing. De Blasio cited September as the "pivot point" in the city's COVID-19 recovery, pointing to how employers will soon begin asking employees to return to offices, people will be returning from summer vacations and the school year will begin in "full strength." "And so, on Sept. 13, which is the first full day of school, every single city employee will be expected to be either vaccinated, or be tested weekly. This means everybody," de Blasio said, including all school employees, the New York City Police Department (NYPD), the New York City Fire Department and all other city agencies. The mayor had already announced a similar measure last week for all public city health workers. Soon after this requirement was announced, the NYPD disclosed that it had vaccinated less than half of its police force. At the time, de Blasio said all agencies have "got to do better. We've got to go farther." Beginning on Monday, unvaccinated city employees who are found to not be wearing a mask will be subject to consequences, de Blasio said. "So we're going to keep climbing this ladder and adding additional measures as needed — mandates and strong measures — whenever needed to fight the delta variant," de Blasio added. "No. 1 way to fight it is get vaccinated, we're proving it. This is the reason life is as good as it is in New York City right now because we're above the national average in vaccinations, but we need to do more."
De Blasio proclaims ‘voluntary phase is over’ on COVID-19 vaccines - Mayor Bill de Blasio said Tuesday that the “voluntary phase is over” in the effort to administer COVID-19 vaccinations to city workers — hinting that mandatory jabs for the Big Apple’s workforce could come soon.Asked if the city will soon require all city workers to be inoculated, de Blasio said he’s heading in that direction.“Yes, we are climbing a ladder. I’m not answering yes to your question yet,” he said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” in response to a question from host Joe Scarborough.“But if that’s not enough, I think we got to be ready to climb the ladder more,” he added. “We’ve got to put pressure on this situation.”On Monday, de Blasio announced that the entire city workforce will soon need to submit to weekly testing if they are not inoculated against the coronavirus. Additionally, city officials said the city, beginning Aug. 2, will require unvaccinated city workers to wear a mask at their workplaces — or face removal from them and suspension without pay. Those new rules came after on Wednesday de Blasio outlined a weekly test-or-COVID-19 vaccine requirement for the city’s public health system workers, amid mounting concern about the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant of the bug in the five boroughs. On Tuesday, de Blasio said enticing New Yorkers with goodies isn’t sufficient to meet the city’s goal of getting more workers inoculated against COVID-19.
New York City and California will require workers to be vaccinated or face testing. - The drive to get Americans vaccinated accelerated on Monday when the most populous state and largest city in the United States announced that they would require their employees to get vaccinated against the coronavirus, or face frequent tests.All municipal employees in New York City, including police officers and teachers, and all state employees and on-site public and private health care workers in California will have to be vaccinated or face at least weekly testing.The Department of Veterans Affairs on Monday also became the first federal agency to mandate that some of its employees get inoculated.The mandates are the most dramatic response yet to the lagging pace of vaccinations around the country in the face of the highly contagious Delta variant, which is tearing through communities with low rates of vaccination and creating what federal health officials have called a “pandemic of the unvaccinated.”Vaccines remain effective against the worst outcomes of Covid-19, including from the Delta variant, but only 49 percent of people in the United States are fully vaccinated, according to federal data.Misinformation and skepticism have dogged the vaccine rollout, too, and in recent weeks new coronavirus infections and hospitalizations have risen, with a fourfold increase in new cases per day over the last month.But both indicators, as well as new deaths, remain well below their winter peaks. Cities, private employers and other institutions have been grappling with whether to require vaccines to help get more people vaccinated.Nearly 60 major medical associations, including the American Medical Association and the American Nurses Association, signed a joint statement on Monday calling for the mandatory vaccination of health care workers that described inoculation as “the logical fulfillment of the ethical commitment of all health care workers.”Hospitals and health care systems like NewYork-Presbyterian and Trinity Health have already announced vaccine mandates, in some cases touching off union protests. The National Football League recently announced it could penalize teams with players who do not get vaccinated. Delta Air Lines will require new employees to be vaccinated, but not its current workers. And last week a federal judge ruled that Indiana University could require vaccinations for students and staff members.New York City will require its roughly 340,000 municipal workers to be vaccinated against the coronavirus by the time schools reopen in mid-September or face weekly testing, Mayor Bill de Blasio said. Enforcing the testing requirement there could be complicated, since the more than two dozen unions that represent municipal employees could take issue with the rule. Mr. de Blasio said the new measures were first steps and that more would follow, and he reiterated a call to private employers to set vaccine mandates for their workers.
State workers in New York must be vaccinated or get weekly tests, Cuomo says. Responding to lagging vaccination rates and a rise in coronavirus cases, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Wednesday that New York’s tens of thousands of state employees would be required to show proof of vaccination or face weekly testing.The governor also announced a much stricter mandate for state-run hospitals, saying that all “patient-facing” health care workers at those facilities would be required to be vaccinated, without the option of regular testing instead. Mr. Cuomo’s announcement comes two days after Mayor Bill de Blasio announced a similar requirement for New York City’s government work force of 300,000 employees.Much of the nation is grappling with the rapid spread of the Delta coronavirus variant. Earlier this week, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California announced his own requirement that would cover 246,000 state government employees, as well as two million health care workers in the public and private sectors.The North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services will require all workers and volunteers at state-operated facilities to be fully vaccinated or receive an approved medical or religious exemption by Sept. 30, according to a statement sent to The New York Times on Wednesday. Officials did not respond to questions about whether those with exemptions will be required to undergo testing.President Biden plans to formally announce on Thursday that all civilian federal employees must be vaccinated against the coronavirus or be forced to submit to regular testing, social distancing, mask requirements and restrictions on most travel, two people familiar with the president’s plans said Wednesday. Such a policy would be a stark shift for a president who has grappled with the authority he has to force Americans to get vaccinated. Mr. Biden is expected to say more about his plans later this week.The increasing support among government officials for vaccine mandates, which have met with pushback from some unions, underscores their concern with a far more contagious variant that poses a special threat to children, and older and unvaccinated people.“We’re working with our unions to implement this quickly and fairly,” Mr. Cuomo, a third-term Democrat, said during remarks to a state business group on Wednesday.
Puerto Rico’s governor says public employees must get vaccinated or face testing. - Puerto Rico’s governor announced on Wednesday that all public employees in the territory would have to be vaccinated against the coronavirus or face weekly testing, joining a growing list of states, municipalities, companies and the federal government that have imposed some form of vaccine requirement.The governor, Pedro R. Pierluisi, said on Twitter that government employees must get their first shot by Aug. 16 and be completely inoculated by Sept. 30, though exceptions for religious reasons or disabilities will be allowed.On Thursday, President Biden announced in Washington that all civilian federal employees in the United States must be vaccinated or submit to regular testing, social distancing, mask requirements and restrictions on most travel.In recent days New York, California and North Carolina have all announced similar vaccination requirements for their employees, as has the Department of Veterans Affairs. Google, Facebook andThe Washington Post are among the companies that have announced mandates of their own.The pace of vaccinations has declined dramatically since they peaked in April, and just under half the country is fully vaccinated, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Some communities with low rates of vaccination have seen soaring case rates and hospitalizations in recent weeks, due in part to the highly contagious Delta variant. Mr. Pierluisi’s mandate is in response to a sharp increase in known coronavirus cases in Puerto Rico — the island saw a 311 percent jump in daily cases over the past two weeks, the most of any U.S. state or territory, according to a New York Times database.
California Restaurant Requires "Proof Of Being UNvaccinated" For Service - A restaurant in Huntington Beach, California is requiring that patrons show proof they're unvaccinated before they can receive service."PROOF OF BEING UNVACCINATED REQUIRED," reads a sign taped to the window at Basilico's Pasta e Vino, according to NBC LA."Our American way of life is under attack," wrote owner Tony Roman in a statement to NBCLA. "And I feel blessed to be on the front lines of this battle in defense of Liberty and Freedom, willing to put everything at risk for it, pledging our business as a 'Constitutional Battleground' since day one of the lockdowns on March 19th, 2020.""We have never complied with any restrictions since, and when the tiny tyrants go on the attack with new mandates, we fire back launching new missiles of defiance. And with the new and aggressive push for mandatory vax policies, we couldn't resist, so we are sending a message of our own. Hopefully most are smart enough to read between the lines. Otherwise we will just sit back and have fun watching their heads explode over it."It's unknown how Roman verifies a customer is indeed unvaccinated, however he declared it a 'mask-free zone' and remained open in March 2020 when other restaurants were on lockdown.The report comes amid a Tuesday admission by the Biden administration that vaccinated people can still contract and transmit COVID - while the Daily Mail reported last week that one fully-vaccinated Australian man infected at least 60 people in a single weekend.
430 people dead in 915 shooting incidents in past week: Gun Violence Archive - At least 915 shootings took place across the country last week, leaving at least 430 people dead, according to ABC News and the Gun Violence Archive.The shootings, which occurred between Saturday, July 17, and Friday, July 23, wounded 1,007 people, according to ABC.The stunning numbers illustrate the spike in gun violence across the U.S.There were more than 43,000 gun deaths in 2020, which was the largest number in at least two decades, according to the Gun Violence Archive, a nonprofit group that tracks gun violence data. The number of gun-related deaths, however, is expected to eclipse that record this year, with more than 24,000 gun fatalities already recorded in 2021.Of the 24,000 individuals who have died from gun violence this year, more than 800 were under the age of 18, according to the Gun Violence Archive. Data shows that 174 of them were under 12 years old.Some of the incidents on record for this year were mass shootings, which are defined as incidents where four or more people were injured or killed, not including the suspect, according to ABC News.The Gun Violence Archive is reporting that 18 mass shootings have taken place in 12 cities in the U.S. this week alone, leaving 19 dead and 74 wounded.Gun violence was prevalent throughout the U.S. this past week, with 47 states and the District of Columbia all being impacted by it.Gun violence was seen most over the past week in Illinois, with 109 incidents, according to ABC News. Texas was next with 63 incidents, followed by Pennsylvania, California and New York, with 59, 52 and 48 incidents, respectively.Texas, however, led the states in the most gun-related incidents that led to death, with 35 fatalities, according to ABC News.Illinois reportedly saw the highest number of people wounded from a firearm, at 124 individuals. July 18 was the worst day for gun violence in the U.S. last week, according to ABC News. Roughly 22 percent of all gun-related incidents occurred between midnight and 3 a.m.
Conflicting school mask guidance sparks confusion --Conflicting mask recommendations and orders from all levels of government and advocacy groups have emerged over the past few weeks, flustering the public as back-to-school season approaches. Confusion is mounting over whether children should wear masks in school and whether their vaccination status should play a role in any guidance ahead of next month, when many schools plan to fully reopen for in-person learning. President Biden addressed the debate this week, saying during a Wednesday town hall that he expects the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to urge unvaccinated students to wear masks in schools and to continue to advise vaccinated students that they don’t need masks. “The CDC is going to say that what we should do is, everyone under the age of 12 should probably be wearing a mask in school,” Biden said at the town hall, as those under 12 years old are currently ineligible to get vaccinated. But the American Academy of Pediatrics issued contradictory recommendations days before, calling for all students older than 2 to wear masks in school, regardless of their vaccination status. The organization said many students can’t get vaccinated and that most schools are not planning to track the vaccination status of the children, although it noted that it “strongly recommends in-person learning.” Mark Schleiss, a professor of pediatrics at the University of Minnesota Medical School, supports requiring masks for all children despite their vaccination status, saying that children make up an increasing percentage of new cases as more adults and seniors are vaccinated. “We need to value and cherish the lives of these kids,” he said. “This idea that children are resistant to COVID-19, that they don't have serious disease with COVID-19 is — I'm so tired of hearing that because it's just simply not true.” The CDC has documented almost 500 deaths among children during the pandemic. He also pointed out that creating rules based on vaccination status could “single certain kids out” and put an “onerous burden” on schools to verify that status. In the meantime, states and cities are taking matters into their own hands by announcing different school mask recommendations and mandates, leading to a patchwork of rules across the country. This week, Chicago, Boston and Washington, D.C., announced plans to require all students to wear face coverings in school in the fall. Meanwhile, at least nine states, including Florida and Texas, so far have banned school districts from requiring masks in schools, according to a CNN analysis.
Florida’s governor gives parents final say on masks for children in school. - Defiant in the face of new federal mask recommendations, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida on Friday signed an executive order directing state officials to ensure that parents have the power to decide for themselves whether their children wear masks in school this fall.Mr. DeSantis, a Republican who has made freedom from Covid-19 restrictions a signature part of his administration, announced that he would sign an order “protecting the rights of parents” amid an intensifying national movement to control the pandemic, as a highly contagious Delta variant of the virus rips through the unvaccinated population.“In Florida, there will be no lockdowns,” Mr. DeSantis said to cheers at a restaurant in Cape Coral, Fla. “There will be no school closures. There will be no restrictions and no mandates.”The announcement came after Broward County, the second largest school district in Florida, voted this week to require masks in schools. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had alsorecommended that all students, teachers and employees wear masks, regardless of their vaccination status.Mr. DeSantis called for a stop to school mask mandates and said that the decision should be in the hands of parents, not school or health officials.His order directed state agencies to ensure that school safety protocols do not interfere with parents’ rights to make health care decisions about their children and empowered the state commissioner of education to withhold state funding from school districts that do not comply.The issue of masking in schools is particularly potent in Florida, which is experiencing one of the fastest Covid-19 outbreaks in the country and where hospitals are once again filling up with coronavirus patients. In Jacksonville, hospitals have more Covid patients than ever before, despite the availability of vaccines. Less than half of the Florida population is fully vaccinated, and children under 12 are not yet eligible for the vaccine.
Improving intellectual infrastructure in American higher education -As President Biden and Congress debate whether, to what extent, and in what ways to improve infrastructure in the United States, it becomes apparent that we need a more expansive definition of the term. Proponents of the historical understanding of infrastructure think in terms of “hard” physical structures such as roads, bridges, and airports. Consistent with this understanding, the American Infrastructure Report Card issued by the American Society of Civil Engineers finds that our nation has been doing somewhat better recently. Of course, raising the cumulative grade from D- four years ago to C- in 2021 is incremental at best.To achieve real social progress, however, we must also address the “soft” infrastructure that improves our quality of life, beginning with healthcare and education.As a report from the American Academy of Arts and Sciences points out, “Policy-makers should broaden their understanding of infrastructure to include our intellectual infrastructure, which is no less important to the nation’s future than our roads and bridges.” Congressional gridlock notwithstanding, state and federal investment in this knowledge infrastructure has long been integral to our nation’s health, wellbeing, and prosperity.President Biden’s request that Congress invest billions to upgrade community colleges and research laboratories at historically black colleges and universities is a crucial step toward redressing inequitable underinvestment in this intellectual infrastructure. Bolstering public two-year colleges and minority-serving institutions makes strategic sense in terms of expanding our capacity to produce the millions of additional graduates essential to the post-industrial workforce. American higher education is the envy of policymakers around the globe. But the preeminence of our leading universities does not correlate withoverall excellence. In a nation whose “crazy quilt” of colleges and universities includes “50 of the best universities in the world and 500 of the worst,” as the economist Charles Clotfelter put the matter, we must expand accessibility to discovery, creativity, and innovation at a socially meaningful scale.
Pelosi Under Fire for Parroting 'Right-Wing Lies' Against Student Loan Debt Cancellation - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was met with swift backlash Wednesday after she claimed that President Joe Biden does not have the authority to cancel federal student loan debt on his own, a position that puts her at odds with legal experts and prominent members of her own party. "People think that the president of the United States has the power for debt forgiveness. He does not," Pelosi (D-Calif.) said during a press briefing. "He can postpone, he can delay, but he does not have that power. That has to be an act of Congress."Progressive activists who have been tirelessly pressuring Biden to cancel student loan debt via executive order immediately pushed back.The Debt Collective, a union of debtors urging Biden to forgive all $1.8 trillion in outstanding federal student loan debt, accused the House Speaker of parroting "right-wing lies" against debt cancellation. "The truth is Biden can cancel 100% of your federal student loans with a signature. We wrote the paperwork for him to do it," the group tweeted, pointing to a draft executive order it released last month.Last September, Eileen Connor, Deanne Loonin, and Toby Merrill of the Project on Predatory Student Lending argued in a letter (pdf) that—contrary to Pelosi's claim—the president has the power to "direct the secretary of the United States Department of Education... to exercise his or her existing authority to cancel federal student loan debt on a broad or categorical basis." "We have consulted the statutory and regulatory framework governing federal student loan programs administered by the Department of Education, as well as the framework and controlling interpretations of the budgetary structure of these programs," the legal experts wrote. "We conclude that such broad or categorical debt cancellation would be a lawful and permissible exercise of the secretary’s authority under existing law."
Biden facing renewed push from Dems to cancel $50K in student loan debt per borrower, extend payment freeze - A group of prominent Democrats on Tuesday once again urged President Joe Biden to extend the federal student loan payment freeze and to forgive $50,000 in student debt per borrower through an executive order. At a joint news conference, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., urged Biden to use his executive authority to make these changes. Currently, federal student loan payments are set to begin again in October but Pressley said the recent spike in COVID-19 Delta variant infections justifies pushing the date out further."We urge President Biden to act with urgency," Pressley said at the news conference. "Failure to act would be unconscionable, would undermine our economic recovery."Even if the Biden administration decided to take action, such measures wouldn't help private student loan borrowers because they are not eligible for COVID-19-related federal student loan forbearance and also wouldn’t qualify for forgiveness. However, there are still options available to them, such as refinancing their student loans. Refinancing could help borrowers save on their monthly payments by getting a lower interest rate. Visit Credible to find your personalized rate.This isn’t the first time Democrats have called for an extension to the student loan payment freeze. Previously, Democratic lawmakers sent a letter to Biden with the results of their inquiries to student loan servicers, showing many were concerned about their ability to end student loan forbearance.Now, lawmakers are renewing that call. "Should payments resume on Oct. 1, millions of students, borrowers and parents will be abruptly pushed back into repayment at the same time, even those who are living paycheck-to-paycheck or without paychecks at all," Schumer said at the news conference. "This could stall our economic recovery and bring millions of student loan borrowers to the edge of a financial cliff."If Biden extends the federal student loan payment freeze or decides to cancel any amount of student loans, private student loan holders will not be eligible for these benefits.
With student debt forgiveness uncertain, Biden is urged to extend loan freeze - As things stand now, the pandemic-triggered freeze on federal student loans will end on Sept. 30.Many Americans aren't ready to come face to face with their student loan obligations for the first time since March 13, 2020. Oct. 1 will mean not only the return of interest charges and monthly payments, but also collections of student loans in default.A push is on for President Joe Biden to extend the payment holiday beyond the end of September. That would give borrowers more time to prepare, and pay off other debt — and it would provide Democrats with additional time to press Biden for broader relief.Many members of the president's party still want him to wipe out $50,000 in student debt for every borrower, though there's new disagreement over how far he might be able to go. For student loan borrowers, Halloween won't be the scariest day in October this year. A new survey shows many are dreading Oct. 1 and the end of the long student loan payments holiday that has already been extended three times.More than 4 in 10 borrowers (41%) say they'll "barely get by" when the freeze expires and will have to cut spending to make ends meet, U.S. News & World Report found. About a quarter (23%) say they won't be able to resume their payments without finding a new source of income.Roughly a quarter of borrowers report they’re paying back $10,000 or less, but 30% say they owe more than $30,000, and 11% say they're paying off student loan balances of more than $50,000, according to the U.S. News survey.The financial burdens are keeping double-digit percentages of borrowers from getting married, or buying homes at today's historically low mortgage rates.Those who are praying for a longer break from student loan payments and interest have some powerful allies in their corner.In June, 64 Democrats in Congress, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, urged President Biden in a letter to extend the moratorium until either March 31, 2022 — or a time when employment returns to its pre-pandemic levels.
Black women's group accuses Johnson & Johnson of 'deceptive marketing' for baby powder - The National Council of Negro Women (NCNW) on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against Johnson & Johnson, accusing the pharmaceutical company of specifically marketing its talcum baby powder products to Black women, despite knowing of concerns surrounding its potential links to cancer. The lawsuit, filed on behalf of the group by leading civil rights attorney Ben Crump, points to internal documents from J&J that allegedly show it specifically targeted Black women for its talcum-based products. “This company, through its words and images, told Black women that we were offensive in our natural state and needed to use their products to stay fresh,” NCNW executive director Janice Mathis said. “Generations of Black women believed them and made it our daily practice to use their products in ways that put us at risk of cancer —and we taught our daughters to do the same. Shame on Johnson and Johnson." This is only the most recent lawsuit against J&J over its baby powder products. In 2018, a jury ruled that J&J should pay $4.7 billion to 22 women and their families who claimed their products caused ovarian cancer. J&J requested that the Supreme Court review this verdict in May, a request the high court rejected. “This lawsuit is about the lives of our grandmothers, our mothers, our wives, sisters and daughters — all of whom were cynically targeted by Johnson and Johnson,” Crump said in a press release. “All the while, company executives knew the risk of ovarian cancer from talc.”
Aducanumab: The Drug That Breaks Medicare? - In my previous posts, I haven’t talked too much about the price set for aducanumab. Since I think it should not have been approved on current evidence regardless of price, the approval has been my focus. But of course the price is an issue, especially given that there is a HUGE pool of potential patients and that most are probably Medicare age, meaning that this drug can have huge impacts on Medicare costs.Before and after approval, there was speculation that this “potentially zillion-dollar moneymaker” (as Sharon Begley called itin October 2019) might be the most lucrative drug ever. Last November it was noted that if it brought in even a fraction of potential patients, it could still realistically be a $60 billion/year drug, changing Biogen’s revenue picture dramatically.Taking a high-side estimate of $110 billion/year, Nicholas Bagley and Rachel Sachs speculated inThe Atlantic that Aduhelm could be the drug that breaks Medicare, given that that cost exceeds total current Part D medication expenses of $90 billion dollars.Even at a much lower total, Aduhelm’s costs would still balloon Medicare costs and would exceed the total NASA budget of $23 billion. Regardless of the exact total, the hit to Medicare would be big.The cost to Medicare…could be substantial…. In 2017, nearly 2 million Medicare beneficiaries used one or more of the currently-available Alzheimer’s treatments covered under Part D, based on an analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation. If one-quarter of those beneficiaries are prescribed Aduhelm, or 500,000 beneficiaries, total spending for Aduhelm in one year would be nearly $29 billion. This assumes Medicare will pay 103% of the list price until an average sales price is established. In any event, the Kaiser estimate suggests the total cost would far exceed spending on any other drug covered under Medicare Part B or Part D, based on 2019 spending data. “To put this $29 billion amount in context, total Medicare spending for all Part B drugs was $37 billion in 2019,” Kaiser wrote.We get to these high numbers because the company set the cost at $56,000/year. $56,000 is a very high price for a drug no one thinks has more than a moderate and subtle clinical benefit. I was struck by this reflection: “I cannot think of a justification for that price for this drug given the evidence thus far except that Medicare will pay it,” said Walid Gellad, an associate professor of medicine who heads the Center for Pharmaceutical Policy and Prescribing at the University of Pittsburgh. “If $56,000 is a reasonable price for this drug, then what [would be] a reasonable price for a drug that has a large impact on changing the course of Alzheimer’s?”
How relaxing Covid-19 restrictions could pave the way for vaccine resistance - Relaxing Covid-19 restrictions could pave the way for new vaccine-resistant virus mutations – according to researchers at the University of East Anglia and the Earlham Institute. A new article published today warns against relaxing Covid-19 restrictions prematurely. It describes how we are in an ‘arms race’ with the virus and how rising cases could provide opportunities for it to evolve into even more transmissible variants. The researchers fear that any new variants could be more virulent, more vaccine resistant, and more dangerous for children and vulnerable groups such as transplant patients. Lead author and editor in chief of Virulence, Prof Kevin Tyler from UEA’s Norwich Medical School, said: “Over the past 17 months, economies, education and mental well-being have suffered tremendously due to the restrictions imposed in an attempt to stem the spread of the pandemic. “Although vaccines have weakened the link between infection and mortality, they should not be used as an argument to justify a broad change in policy for countries experiencing an exponential increase in infection numbers. “This is because most of the world’s population are still unvaccinated, and even in countries with efficient vaccination programmes, a significant proportion of society, particularly children, remain unprotected. “Relaxing restrictions boosts transmission and allows the virus population to expand, which enhances its adaptive evolutionary potential and increases the risk of vaccine-resistant strains emerging by a process known as antigenic drift. “Put simply, limiting the spread of Covid-19 as much as possible restricts the number of future deaths by restricting the rate with which new variants arise. “Successive SARS-CoV-2 variants such as the Alpha and Delta variants, have displaced one another since the outbreak. “Slowing down the rate of new variant emergence requires us to act fast and decisively, reducing the number of infected people including children with vaccines and in combination with other public health policies.
VA to mandate COVID-19 vaccine for its health workers --The Department of Veterans Affairs will require its front-line health care workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19, a move that comes as vaccine mandates from employers are on the rise. “I am doing this because it’s the best way to keep our veterans safe, full stop,” Denis McDonough, the secretary of Veterans Affairs, told The New York Times in an interview. The move will apply to 115,000 employees who have the most "patient-facing" jobs, the Times reported, and they will have eight weeks to get the shots if they have not already. The move from the sprawling federal agency is the first time any part of the federal government has mandated COVID-19 vaccines, a step that the Biden administration has generally shied away from. Calls for more mandates from employers are on the rise, though. New York City announced a mandate for its workers earlier on Monday. And more than 50 health care groups, including the American Medical Association, on Monday also called for health care employers to mandate that all workers be vaccinated. As the vaccination rate in the U.S. lags, even as the delta variant fuels new spikes, many experts say persuasion is reaching its limits and mandates from employers will play an important role. White House press secretary Jen Psaki praised the statement from
Pfizer Shot Halts Severe Illness, Allows Infection in Israel - Pfizer Inc’s Covid-19 vaccine provided a strong shield against hospitalization and more severe disease in cases caused by the contagious delta variant in Israel in recent weeks, even though it was just 39% effective in preventing infections, according to the country’s health ministry. The vaccine, developed with BioNTech SE, provided 88% protection against hospitalization and 91.4% against severe illness for an unspecified number of people studied between June 20 and July 17, according to a report Thursday from the health ministry. The report said that the data could be skewed because of different ways of testing vaccinated groups of people versus those who hadn’t been inoculated. These results contrast with an earlier study in the New England Journal of Medicine which found that two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine offer 88% protection against symptomatic disease caused by the delta variant, compared to 94% against the alpha variant that was first discovered in Britain. Public Health England also previously found that the Pfizer and BioNTech shot was 96% effective against hospitalization. Pfizer could not be reached for comment immediately. BioNTech is conducting an ongoing review of study data on the vaccine, a spokeswoman said. The delta variant first emerged in India and is spreading around the globe as governments race to inoculate people, sometimes infecting those already fully vaccinated against Covid. The mutation has forced some countries to delay or rethink plans to loosen curbs on businesses, activity and travel. Israel has had one of the world’s most effective inoculation drives, with 57% of the population fully vaccinated, but has seen a recent surge in infections due to delta. Critical cases have also climbed, but remain a fraction of the peak earlier this year.
Latest Data Show Efficacy Of Pfizer Vaccine Falls To 84% After 6 Months -As pressure builds for the FDA to simply 'get on with it' and issue full approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna jabs, it looks like the people responsible for deciding whether vaccines are safe and effective are finally coming around to the reality that those vaccines aren't as effective against the delta strain as they had once hoped. Despite months of insisting that the opposite was true, the FDA has found that the efficacy of the jabs has fallen to 84% over six months, according to new data released Wednesday. Conveniently, STAT News, which broke the story about the data, reported that the lower efficacy would likely bolster Pfizer's case for approval of a third dose.Per the data, which has been released to outside scientists, the ongoing study, which enrolled more than 44K volunteers, found that the vaccine's efficacy appeared to decline by an average of 6% every two months after administration. Efficacy peaked at more than 96% within two months of vaccination and slipped to 84% after six months.The overall efficacy against severe disease was a still considerable 97% (though that's still not 100%).Unsurprisingly, STAT lined up a few talking heads to plug the numbers. Paul Offit, a pediatrician and vaccine expert at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, told STAT that the results were "very reassuring." The potential need for booster shots is tied to the number of fully vaccinated people who develop severe disease, Offit said. That number is just 3% lower after six months, suggesting two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine offers adequate protection.Earlier, Pfizer boosted its fiscal year revenue forecast for its vaccine business. Perhaps these data offer some insight into that decision.Of course, there's reason to believe that number might be even lower than the 97%.Israel's Ministry of Health recently found that the Pfizer vaccine is only 39% effective at combating delta, down from 64% according to earlier Israeli data intended to measure the efficacy against the delta variant.Pfizer is already shipping jabs to Israel, which is preparing to start doling out booster shots to residents deemed vulnerable to COVID. For whatever reason, the data released Wednesday doesn't directly address the delta variant. Readers can find the data below:
No Increased Risk Of Blood Clotting After Second AstraZeneca Shot, Study Finds -The second shot of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine does not increase the risk of developing rare blood clotting, a new study published Wednesday shows, reassuring those who didn’t experience issues after their first shot and following reports of numerous countries offering alternatives. The estimated rate of the rare clotting disorder—called thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome, or TTS—following the second AstraZeneca shot was 2.3 per million people vaccinated, according to data published in The LancetWednesday. This is comparable to the background rates of TTS observed in the general unvaccinated population before Covid-19, indicating there is no elevated risk of developing the disorder in people receiving their second dose.The data, from AstraZeneca’s global safety database, captured reported cases of TTS in the 14 days after receiving the first or second dose through the end of April 2021, covering some 5.6 million second doses and 49 million first doses.The data confirmed reports of an elevated risk of TTS in those receiving their first shot, however, which occurred at a rate of 8.1 per million people. Sir Mene Pangalos, AstraZeneca’s executive vice president of biopharmaceuticals R&D, said the findings “support the administration of the two-dose schedule… unless TTS was identified after the first dose.” Originally billed as a world-saver and a more practical alternative to the costly mRNA shots of Pfizer and Moderna, it is now being shunned by wealthy nations who can afford alternatives and poorer nations who don’t have any vaccines at all. Mistakes in clinical trials, concerns about rare blood clots, communications fiascos and frequent trouble delivering promised doses on time all knocked the vaccine’s reputation around the world. Though the risks of developing the rare blood clots are incredibly low—regulators emphasize the risk is vastly outweighed by that of contracting Covid-19—numerous countries have restricted the vaccines to lower-risk groups.
At the F.D.A.’s urging, Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna are expanding their trials for children 5 to 11. - At the urging of federal regulators, two coronavirus vaccine makers are expanding the size of their clinical trials for children ages 5 to 11 — a precautionary measure designed to detect rare side effects including heart inflammation problems that turned up in vaccinated people younger than 30.President Biden promised at a meeting in Ohio last week that emergency clearance for pediatric vaccines would come “soon,” but the White House has not been specific on the timeline. It was unclear whether expanding the studies will affect when vaccines could be authorized for children.The Food and Drug Administration has indicated to Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna that the size and scope of their pediatric studies, as initially envisioned, were inadequate to detect rare side effects. Those include myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle, and pericarditis, inflammation of the lining around the heart, multiple people familiar with the trials said.Questions about vaccinating children — including those under 12 — are of huge interest to parents and teachers. Regulators will be required to balance potential side effects of coronavirus vaccination against the risks of Covid-19.Members of a C.D.C. advisory committee have said that the benefits of shots for people older than 12 greatly outweigh the risks, including of heart problems.The F.D.A. has asked the companies to include 3,000 children in the 5-to-11-year-old group, the group for whom results were expected first, according to people familiar with the situation. One of the people, granted anonymity to speak freely, described that figure as double the original number of study participants.A spokesman for Moderna, Ray Jordan, confirmed that the company intends to expand its trial “to enroll a larger safety database which increases the likelihood of detecting rarer events” and expects to seek emergency authorization late this year or early next year.The Moderna trial began recruiting patients in March with the aim of enrolling 6,795 participants younger than 12. The participants were to be split equally into three age brackets, including a 6 to 11 year old group, of 2,265 participants each. Mr. Jordan said the company is “actively discussing” a proposal with the F.D.A. to expand the trial.Pfizer is on a faster timetable than Moderna, and may be able to meet the F.D.A.’s expectations on a bigger trial size and still file a request to expand emergency authorization of its vaccine by the end of September. Reviewing all the safety and efficacy data will likely take regulators at least a few weeks.Pfizer has previously said it expects to have results for the 5-to-11-year-old group in September, with results for children aged 2 to 5 shortly after that. Results for the youngest children — 6 months to 2 years old — are expected in October or November. A spokeswoman said Monday that the company had no updates on its timetable.
The F.D.A. extends the Johnson & Johnson vaccine’s shelf life to six months.- The Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday agreed to allow Johnson & Johnson to extend the shelf life of its coronavirus vaccine to six months.The F.D.A.’s decision came as state health officials in the United States were growing increasingly concerned that doses of thevaccine would expire and go to waste. The vaccines were previously set to expire after four and a half months.In a letter, the F.D.A. said its decision was “applicable to batches that might have expired prior to the issuance of this concurrence letter” and had been stored at the proper temperature, 2-8 degrees Celsius, or 35.6-46.4 Fahrenheit.The single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine can be stored in normal refrigeration, which has helped states reach more isolated communities where it may be difficult to manage a two-dose vaccine like those made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. Both of those must be stored at much lower temperatures.As of Wednesday, more than 13 million Americans had received the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine, according to data from theCenters for Disease Control and Prevention. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has been the most widely administered in the United States, with more than 87 million Americans fully vaccinated with it. More than 63 million people in the United States have been fully vaccinated with the Moderna formula.
Citing new data, Pfizer outlined a case for booster shots, but there’s a debate over whether they’re needed - Pfizer reported on Wednesday that the power of its two-dose Covid vaccine wanes slightly over time, but nonetheless offers lasting and robust protection against serious disease. The company suggested that a third shot could improve immunity, but whether boosters will be widely needed is far from settled, the subject of heated debate among scientists.So far, federal health officials have said boosters for the general population are unnecessary. And experts questioned whether vaccinated people should get more doses when so many people have yet to be immunized at all.“There’s not enough evidence right now to support that that is somehow the best use of resources,” said Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at Emory University in Atlanta.Still, the findings raise questions about how much the Pfizer vaccine will prevent infection in the months to come. And with coronavirus cases surging again in many states, the data may influence the Biden administration’s deliberations about delivering boosters for older people.If third shots are cleared for the general population, the boosters would likely represent a multi-billion-dollar business for Pfizer.In a study posted online but not yet peer-reviewed or published in a scientific journal, Pfizer and BioNTech scientists reported that the vaccine had a sky-high efficacy rate of about 96 percent against symptomatic Covid-19 for the first two months following the second dose. But the figure declined by about 6 percent every two months after that, falling to 83.7 percent after about four to six months.Against severe disease, however, the vaccine’s efficacy held steady at about 97 percent.“It’s not a big drop, but it is noteworthy,” Dr. Dean said. “Overall, they find that the vaccine is still performing very well, at very high efficacy.” The study period ended before the rise of the Delta variant, the highly contagious version of the virus that now dominates in the United States and makes vaccines somewhat less effective against infection.
CDC to recommend masks for vaccinated people in some situations - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) plans to adjust its mask recommendations to advise people vaccinated against COVID-19 to again wear masks indoors in certain situations, White House press secretary Jen Psaki confirmed."It's obviously a decision the CDC made," she told reporters Tuesday. "The president was briefed this morning by Dr. [Anthony] Fauci but beyond that, we've been aware of their discussions with our public health officials."Psaki did not unveil the specific recommendations the CDC plans to announce later Tuesday, saying, "It is not only appropriate for them to make the decisions, it's also appropriate for them to officially announce their own guidance."The change in guidance comes after COVID-19 cases have risen nationwide, nearly tripling in the past two weeks as the delta variant sweeps the country. More reports of breakthrough cases among fully vaccinated people have streamed in as the highly transmissible variant became the dominant strain in the U.S."We're still in the midst of a once in a generation pandemic battling an ever-evolving virus," Psaki said."The reality is we are dealing with a much different strain of this virus than we were even earlier in the spring," she added.
House to resume mask mandate after new CDC guidance - Masks will once again be universally required on the House side of the Capitol amid the spread of the highly contagious delta variant, the Capitol physician announced late Tuesday night. The resumption of the House mask mandate — just over a month after it was lifted — comes after new guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) earlier Tuesday recommending that vaccinated people should wear masks in high-risk areas. "To be clear, for meetings in an enclosed US House of Representatives controlled space, masks are REQUIRED," a memo from the Capitol physician, Brian Monahan, states. Monahan said that masks are justified given that members of Congress hail from all over the country, where some areas — primarily conservative-leaning — are seeing a surge in COVID-19 amid low vaccination rates. "For the Congress, representing a collection of individuals traveling weekly from various risk areas (both high and low rates of disease transmission), all individuals should wear a well-fitted, medical-grade filtration mask (for example an ear loop surgical mask or a KN95 mask) when they are in an interior space," Monahan wrote. Most people in the Capitol were largely forgoing masks in recent weeks after the Capitol physician announced last month that they were no longer required for people vaccinated against COVID-19. But many lawmakers and staffers began wearing masks voluntarily again last week following news that Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), a staffer for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and a White House official all tested positive for COVID-19 despite being fully vaccinated. The return of the House mask mandate drew swift outcry from Republicans, many of whom have resisted wearing facial coverings from the start of the pandemic. "Make no mistake — The threat of bringing masks back is not a decision based on science, but a decision conjured up by liberal government officials who want to continue to live in a perpetual pandemic state," House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) tweeted Tuesday night. Lawmakers face hefty fines if they don't comply with the House floor mask mandate. Six Republicans were issued $500 fines in May for refusing to wear masks before the Capitol physician ultimately lifted the requirement.
CDC Confirms That Viral Loads In Vaccinated People With Delta May Be Infectious, So Masks Are Necessary. -- The Centers for Disease Control reversed course Monday and said it now recommends indoor masks for the vaccinated in all areas of the country where COVID infections are surging. CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky cited unpublished data from recent days suggesting that vaccinated people may be able to spread the Delta variant just as easily as unvaccinated people.We're back in a phase of constantly shifting information and data — and just last week we had experts casting doubton whether vaccinated and mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic cases should be counted as "breakthrough" cases, and others casting doubt on whether vaccinated people could spread the virus easily.But as was expected, the CDC changed its tune about masking on Tuesday, recommending that vaccinated people resume wearing masks in crowded indoor settings. And, it should be noted, that while outdoor gatherings are still being considered safe, some experts are also now casting doubt on what assumptions to keep with the Delta variant. Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, one of the world's leading epidemiologists, pointed to some recent "fleeting" transmission casesin Australia, albeit indoors, that appeared to happen with barely any close contact whatsoever.** And an outbreak ofaround 1,000 attendees at an outdoor music festival in the Netherlands appears to confirm that widespread outdoor transmission of the Delta variant is possible in crowds.As the Associated Press notes, Walensky cited data from the last few days, still unpublished, taken from 100 samples from vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with COVID infections. They found that the amount of virus in the noses and throats of vaccinated infected people was nearly "indistinguishable" from what was found in unvaccinated people, confirming what some experts have suspected. The increased viral load associated with the Delta variant appears to make vaccinated people equal spreaders of the virus. Walensky said that the data was "concerning enough that we feel like we have to act."Infections in vaccinated people are still vastly less severe than those among the unvaccinated, and the overwhelming number of hospitalizations and deaths are happening among the unvaccinated. But new evidence is enough to make the vaccinated feel less secure about what happens if they're exposed to the Delta variant.
USA Today Scrubs Passage Suggesting Vaccinated Individuals May Spread COVID With 'Higher Levels' Of Virus - “NBC News, citing unnamed officials aware of the decision, reported it comes after new data suggests vaccinated individuals could have higher levels of virus and infect others amid the surge of cases driven by the delta variant of the coronavirus,” the USA Today reported in a passage that was later scrubbed from an article. A screenshot from the article and an online archive of the passage points out the surfacing evidence. The story from the USA Today drops the reference to NBC News, but nonetheless corroborates the news: “CDC says vaccinated people may transmit virus, recommends masks indoors.”“CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said new data shows the delta variant, which accounts for more than 80% of the new infections in the U.S., behaves ‘uniquely differently’ from its predecessors and could make vaccinated people infectious,” the article notes.“Information on the delta variant from several states and other countries indicates that in rare occasions some vaccinated people infected with the delta variant after vaccination may be contagious and spread the virus to others,” Walensky said in announcing new guidance, which reverses a CDC recommendation in May. “This new science is worrisome and unfortunately warrants an update to our recommendation.”NBC News reported on the CDC guidance reversal on Monday.“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended Tuesday that fully vaccinated people begin wearing masks indoors again in places with high Covid-19 transmission rates,” NBC News reported. “The agency is also recommending kids wear masks in schools this fall.”“Federal health officials still believe fully vaccinated individuals represent a very small amount of transmission,” the report continued. “Still, some vaccinated people could be carrying higher levels of the virus than previously understood and potentially transmit it to others.”Read the rest of the report here.
The C.D.C. now says fully vaccinated people should get tested after exposure even if they don’t show symptoms. - In addition to revising its mask guidance on Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also quietly updated its testing recommendations for people who are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus.The agency now advises that vaccinated people be tested for the virus if they come into contact with someone with Covid-19, even if they have no symptoms. Previously, the health agency had said that fully vaccinated people did not need to be tested after exposure to the virus unless they were experiencing symptoms.“Our updated guidance recommends vaccinated people get tested upon exposure regardless of symptoms,” Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, the agency’s director, said in an email to The New York Times. “Testing is widely available.”Fully vaccinated people should wear a mask in public indoor spaces after exposure, the agency said. Three to five days later, they should be tested for the virus.If the results come back negative, they can stop wearing masks indoors. If results are positive, the infected should isolate at home for 10 days.Although people who are fully vaccinated may still get infected with the virus, these breakthrough infections tend to be mild or asymptomatic. The vaccines authorized in the United States provide strong protection against the worst outcomes, including severe disease, hospitalization and death, including from the Delta variant.The new testing recommendation came on the same day that the agency recommended that fully vaccinated people return to wearing masks indoors under some circumstances. When levels of community transmission are high, everyone, regardless of vaccination status, should wear masks indoors when they are in public, the agency now says. The agency also recommended that vaccinated people in close contact with unvaccinated people, including children under age 12, consider wearing masks in public indoor spaces whatever the transmission rates in the local community. In a shift, the agency also recommended universal masking in schools.
COVID Symptoms May Linger In Some Vaccinated People Who Get Infected, Study Finds -There's more potentially worrisome news for vaccinated people: In very rare cases, people experiencing breakthrough infections may be at risk for long-COVID symptoms.That's according to a small new study of fully vaccinated health care workers in Israel,published Wednesday in The New England Journal of Medicine.The study confirmed what's already known: That it's very rare for fully vaccinated people to get infected or sick with COVID-19. But it also found lingering COVID symptoms did develop in a handful of breakthrough cases.Researchers studied 1,497 vaccinated health care workers at the Sheba Medical Center in Israel. Among them, only 39 got infected despite their inoculations. Of those, seven — or about 19% — developed symptoms that lasted at least six weeks, including headaches, muscle pain, loss of taste and smell and fatigue."It's really disturbing," says Dr. Gili Regev-Yochay, director of the infection, prevention and control unit with the Sheba Medical Center and an author of the study."If this is what we're going to see with all of the even mildly symptomatic infections that we're seeing now, it's definitely worrisome," she says."We had hoped that when you get vaccinated and even if you did have a breakthrough infection you would have enough of an immune response that would block this protracted symptom complex now known as long COVID," says Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research."This study is the really first to give us an indicator that there's some long-haulers among that small group of people that had breakthrough infections," Topol says.
Are Covid Shots Working? What the Real World Tells Us - With Covid-19 shots in billions of arms by now, evidence is emerging of how well they work in real-world settings. Vaccines authorized for emergency use have successfully subdued epidemics in nations where at least half of the population is fully immunized. But as more-transmissible variants spread, driving fresh outbreaks and an increase in breakthrough infections, health authorities are recommending some immunized individuals wear face-masks indoors to augment the protection of vaccines. In general, the Covid shots are extremely good, though not perfect, at protecting against hospitalization and death. Researchers in Taiwan found that a 10% increase in vaccine coverage is associated with a 7.6% reduction in the case fatality ratio. Most vaccines also provide a very good shield against developing Covid symptoms, and some are able to provide good protection from being infected with the virus that causes Covid, SARS-CoV-2. The latter ability is important because it results in the kind of sterilizing immunity that stops the virus from spreading -- a feat that will bring the world closer to ending the pandemic via so-called herd immunity. In any case, vaccination is associated with a 40%-to-50% reduction in Covid cases among an infected person’s household contacts, and it’s anticipated that newer generation vaccines will be even better at preventing onward transmission. With Israel, the U.S. and U.K. supplying the majority of the data, which pertains mostly to vaccines made by AstraZeneca Plc and Pfizer Inc. and its partner BioNTech SE. Estimates for Sputnik V and Sinopharm vaccines are the most limited. Also, although more than 90 vaccine effectiveness studies have been made publicly available, their quality varies considerably, according to the World Health Organization. For now, the so-called mRNA vaccines made by Moderna Inc. and by Pfizer-BioNTech appear superior. Also, mixing the vaccines (most require two shots) appears to generate a robust immune response. Doctors have reiterated, however, that the best vaccine is the one that’s available where you are, as any protection is better than none against this virus. Efficacy levels estimated from clinical trials aren’t necessarily comparable because each vaccine study used different regimens and measurements. They also were undertaken in different groups of people and at different times, when different strains were prevalent. In some countries, like Chile, two vaccines have been administered simultaneously, allowing for a comparison of the two groups. But the individuals receiving the shots may have differed in terms of their vulnerability and likelihood of being infected, so the effectiveness of each vaccine may not be directly comparable. Still, the results show how well vaccines are preventing Covid cases, hospitalizations and deaths from real-world data. An unpublished study by Pfizer researchers that followed vaccinated individuals for up to 6 months reported a gradually declining trend in vaccine efficacy against a symptomatic infection, but found their shot remained “highly efficacious” overall. Efficacy peaked at 96.2% in the two months after a second shot, and declined gradually to 83.7% from 4 months, and then by an average of 6% every two months. Further follow-up is needed to understand the persistence of the vaccine effect as well as whether and when boosters are needed.
COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Cases: Data from the States - While COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective at preventing severe disease, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19 and also reduce the likelihood of mild or asymptomatic infection, a small share of fully vaccinated individuals do become infected, and some become hospitalized or have died. These rare occurrences areknown as “breakthrough cases” which are to be expected, and historically known to occur with other vaccinesas none is 100% effective.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently monitors hospitalizations and deaths, from any cause, among fully vaccinated individuals with COVID-19, but not breakthrough infections, which itstopped monitoring as of May 1. CDC presents this data in aggregate at the national level but not by state, and there is no single, public repository for data by state or data on breakthrough infections, since the CDC stopped monitoring them.We therefore reviewed the websites and other official state sources for all 50 states and D.C. to see which are providing data on COVID-19 breakthrough cases, hospitalizations and deaths, how regularly, and what those data may tell us. We only used data from official state sources (we did not include data available only in news media reports, for example). Where a state did not provide comparable data on overall COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, or deaths reported over the period in which it captured breakthrough events, we obtained data on cases and deaths from the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard and on hospitalizations from the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services for the appropriate period (see methods for more detail).Importantly, not all hospitalizations and deaths of those fully vaccinated and diagnosed with COVID-19 are due to COVID-19 or have a known cause at the time of reporting. The CDC reports that as of July 19, of 5,601 hospitalized breakthrough cases, 27% were asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19 and of 1,141 fatal cases, 26% were asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. States differ in whether they provide this detail.DC, for example, reports that as of July 11, 50% of hospitalized breakthrough cases were due to COVID-19, 19% were not, and 31% were of unknown reason. However, few states made these distinctions. Where they did, we only included breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. In other cases, some of these breakthrough events may be due to causes other than COVID-19.Overall, we find that:
- Half of states (25) report some data on COVID-19 breakthrough events (see Table 1). Twenty-four provide data on breakthrough cases, 19 on hospitalizations and on deaths.
- Fifteen of these states regularly update these data, often on a weekly basis. The rest use a different frequency, have one-time reports, have stopped updating, or have an unclear reporting frequency.
- The data reported from these states indicate that breakthrough cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are extremely rare events among those who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (see Figure 1). The rate of breakthrough cases reported among those fully vaccinated is well below 1% in all reporting states, ranging from 0.01% in Connecticut to 0.90% in Oklahoma.
U.S. Vaccine Diplomat Cajoles Producers to Support Low-Cost Off-Shore Vaccine Hubs - Jerri-Lynn Scofield -The Center for Disease Control (CDC) appears on the verge of reversing its mask guidance for the fully vaccinated, according to the New York Times, The C.D.C. will recommend that some vaccinated people wear masks indoors again. This new guidance would reverse one of the many misguided government decisions made since the start of the pandemic: dangling the shiny penny of being able to go maskless as a bribe to the vaccine hesitant to induce them to get jabbed. Look how well that worked out! The premature decision to allow people to go mask-free has undoubtedly increased the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths among both vaccinated and unvaccinated alike, since it was announced in May. That brings me to what I really want to discuss: the focus throughout the pandemic on protecting intellectual property rights – and profits – rather than hunkering down to supply effective treatments and vaccines to everyone in the world as quickly as possible. The powers that be decided to bet the farm on a vaccine strategy rather than on treatments. So, in the interest of keeping this post to a manageable length, vaccines will be the topic du jour. It’s not always been the case that inventors of medical advances promoted profit over public health. Both Jonas Salk and Alfred Sabin didn’t patent their respective polio vaccines. In that regard, they followed a precedent set by the inventor of insulin in 1923, Frederick Banting, who declined to put his name on the patent, as he believed it to be unethical for a doctor to profit from such a life-saving discovery. Banting’s co-inventors, James Collip and Charles Best, sold the insulin patent to the University of Toronto for $1, so that anyone who needed the new miracle medication could afford it. Would that Big Pharma – and other esteemed elites – I’m looking at you, Bill Gates – were now so public spirited. Not only did they seek to profit, but they have blocked initiatives to distribute remedies widely, cheaply, and rapidly. Last year, India and South Africa proposed a patent waiver for coronavirus vaccines at the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The U.S., along with Canada, Germany, and the UK, opposed this measure , until the Biden administration reversed course in May and came out in support of waiving coronavirus patents.. But U.S. support alone hasn’t led to any shift in WTO policy. Meanwhile, people continue to die. Millions, as matter of fact, since the waiver proposal was made nine months ago; 3 Million People Have Died of Covid Since Rich Nations Began Obstructing Vaccine Patent Waiver: The WTO’s General Council meets in Geneva today and tomorrow and will discuss the patent waiver issue. But without a breakthrough soon, no waiver may be forthcoming until the WTO breaks for vacation in August. Meaning that the measure will be stymied until October at least. Per Common Dreams: Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch division, blasted the WTO for preparing to shut down for six weeks of vacation while “monopoly protections for pharmaceutical corporations remain an obstacle to scaling up the production of vaccines, tests, and treatments needed to beat Covid.” “The Delta variant is burning a murderous path through a world where most people are literally dying for a vaccine but there simply is no supply,” Wallach said in a statement Tuesday. Meanwhile, the U.S. is moving on another front, as reported in the FT, US vaccine diplomat urges producers to back low-cost jab hubs abroad:
Missing genetic data on the early coronavirus from China has re-emerged - A batch of early coronavirus data from China that went missing for a year — prompting questions about whether they had been purposely deleted — has emerged from hiding.Last month an American scientist discovered that more than 200 genetic sequences from Covid-19 patient samples isolated in Wuhan, China, early in the pandemic had puzzlingly been removed from an online database.A Seattle virologist, Jesse Bloom, managed to track down 13 of the sequences on Google Cloud. In an online report, he wrote that it “seems likely that the sequences were deleted to obscure their existence.”But now an odd explanation has emerged, stemming from an editorial oversight by a German scientific journal called Small. And the sequences have been uploaded into a different database, overseen by the Chinese government.The story began in early 2020, when researchers at Wuhan University sequenced a short stretch of genetic material from virus samples at a Wuhan hospital.They posted their findings online in March 2020 and uploaded the sequences to an online database maintained by the National Institutes of Health. Their results were published in June 2020 in Small. But a year later, Dr. Bloom, who was researching the origin of Covid-19, could not find the sequences in the database, and the N.I.H. said the authors of the study had asked that the data be withdrawn. On July 5, more than a year after the Wuhan University researchers withdrew the sequences from the N.I.H. database and two weeks after Dr. Bloom’s report was published, the sequences were quietly uploaded to a different database maintained by China National Center for Bioinformation.
San Diego Zoo snow leopard tests positive for COVID-19 -A rare male snow leopard at the San Diego Zoo has tested positive for the coronavirus, prompting the closure of the animals’ habitat to zoo visitors until further notice. Zoo officials last week noticed the animal was experiencing a cough and runny nose. Two separate tests of his stool confirmed the presence of SARS-CoV-2, the zoo saidin a statement on Friday. The snow leopard has exhibited no other symptoms and appears to be doing well, according to zoo officials. A female snow leopard and two Amur leopards who share the habitat are in quarantine due to the assumed exposure. The zoo earlier this year began vaccinating animals with an experimental vaccine developed by veterinary pharmaceutical company Zoetis, which is intended strictly for nonhuman use. In January, a group of eight gorillas at the zoo’s sister facility contracted the virus from a wildlife care specialist who was asymptomatic. All the gorillas have since fully recovered. It’s believed to be the first known cases of COVID-19 among primates other than humans. While the zoo said it was administering the vaccine doses as quickly and responsibly as possible, the male snow leopard had yet to get the vaccine. It’s unclear how the big cat got infected, but the zoo said it has security measures in place to keep animals safe, such as the use of personal protective equipment, masks and cleaning and disinfection protocols. There’s an estimated 4,0000 to 6,000 snow leopards left in the wild, according to the World Wildlife Fund.
A third of white-tailed deer tested in a survey were exposed to the coronavirus. A third of the white-tailed deer tested in four states during a federal study had been exposed to the coronavirus, in yet another indication of the unpredictable nature of the disease. The percentage was highest in Michigan, where 60 percent of the animals tested positive.The presence of the virus in wild deer is not just a curiosity for scientists. The virus has shown it can jump from one species to another, and in the worse case, it could become established in a common animal species, creating a reservoir from which the virus could spill back into humans.“It’s not just a warning about deer,” said Tony Goldberg, a veterinarian at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, who has been surveying North American bats for evidence of infections with the coronavirus.The deer could have encountered the virus through contact or proximity to other animals or humans. Exposure is not the same as infection; the blood tests detected antibodies, which could indicate that the deer fought off infection.The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service conducted the survey because deer have been shown to be susceptible to infection and are often in contact with people. Researchers tested blood samples from deer in Illinois, Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania in 2020 and 2021. The findings have not yet been published in a scientific journal. Researchers have experimentally infected ferrets, primates and other animals with the coronavirus in the laboratory, and dogs, domestic cats, gorillas and other animals in zoos.Farmed mink caught the virus naturally from humans. The virus mutated and spread back to humans in a few cases. Farmed mink are now being vaccinated with an experimental vaccine, as are zoo animals. Dr. Goldberg said it was difficult to know what close contact with people meant for deer. The animals are often in yards and gardens, but, he joked, not often invited to dinner parties. People could conceivably sneeze on a leaf or into the air with deer nearby, he said, scenarios that seemed “plausible but not likely.” He added that if one deer became infected, however, it might well infect or expose other deer to the virus. Sewage also can contain the coronavirus.
Family says 15-year-old girl died after testing positive for Delta variant - - Kaci Loux, 15, loved spending time with her mom and younger sisters. “She was an outstanding girl. Like I said, she loved her music, she loved hanging out with me,” said Kaci Loux’s mother, Shilynee Loux. Her daughter was the first child COVID-19-related death in Mesa County. According to the health department, the girl tested positive for the Delta variant and was hospitalized before her age group was eligible for the vaccine. “You shouldn’t have to lose your own kid over it,” the mother said. Cases of the Delta variant are skyrocketing in several states, including Colorado. The variant is believed to be more transmissible, and as it spreads health experts warn about the risk to young children who are not vaccinated. Shilynee Loux said her youngest daughter got COVID-19 in April, and it spread throughout the entire family. Only Kaci Loux was hospitalized. “It progressed pretty fast. She was complaining that she couldn’t breathe,” Shilynee Loux explained. At one point it seemed like her daughter was improving. “I went with her and we’re up there probably 3 1/2 weeks in ICU and then they’re getting ready to put her into recovery. And then everything just went to hell,” the mother said. Shilynee Loux said her daughter went into cardiac arrest and passed away after nearly a month in the hospital. “Don’t wait, don’t wait. Take them in ASAP, because if you wait it gets 10 times worse and it will shut their lungs down fast,” the mother warned to other parents.
Grim months projected as delta tears through Oregon: ‘I wasn’t afraid 2 months ago. I’m afraid now’ - The lack of statewide action by the governor, the voracious delta variant and the overwhelming pushback from a steadfast portion of Oregonians shunning masks and COVID-19 vaccinations have prompted two new forecasts to predict a deeply concerning future for the state in coming months -- mirroring predictions for much of the nation.A forecast released Friday by Oregon Health & Science University anticipates that the number of patients actively hospitalized by the coronavirus at any given time will nearly double by the end of September, reaching a high of about 335.A second forecast released Thursday by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicted an even more dire late summer and fall: More than 650 Oregonians hospitalized because of the virus by Nov. 1 -- a level that could be comparable to last winter’s peak.The latter forecast also anticipates nearly 1,600 new known cases per day -- slightly higher than the depths of the pandemic reached in Oregon last winter.Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist who worked on the grimmer forecast, called the recent rise in cases and hospitalizations starting in summer -- rather than in fall or winter -- “scary and alarming.” That’s because coronaviruses usually take hold in the colder months of fall and winter.“I wasn’t afraid two months ago. I’m afraid now,” Mokdad said. “I’m double-masking again when I’m indoors, and I’m fully vaccinated.” While it’s impossible to know if those forecasts will be accurate, both anticipate statewide hospitalizations well above the threshold of 300 set in April by Gov. Kate Brown for enacting a host of restrictions to curb what was then a swift-mounting spring coronavirus wave with hospitalizations growing by more than 15% per week. But Brown has now pivoted away from the same state-issued restrictions for the summer surge, undercutting her previous assertion that implementing safeguards tied to hospitalization benchmarks “will save lives and help stop COVID-19 hospitalizations from spiking even higher.”
Delta variant raises fears of worsening mutations -The rapid spread of the delta variant is raising concerns among scientists that the coronavirus could mutate into more transmissible or deadlier strains.The fresh fears come as the U.S. vaccination rate has largely plateaued and with much of the world still unvaccinated. Such a large number of people without even one vaccine dose gives the virus more chances to spread, replicate and potentially develop mutations.Experts say that while mutations are not a certainty, the odds will remain high unless more vaccines are administered. And they warn that the highly transmissible delta variant, which came from mutations, could seem tame in comparison to future strains.In announcing the new mask guidance this week, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walenskyaddressed the anxiety among public health experts over whether potential mutations might be able to bypass existing COVID-19 vaccines.“Right now, fortunately, we are not there,” Walensky said. “These vaccines operate really well in protecting us from severe disease and death.” “But the big concern is that the next variant that might emerge, just a few mutations potentially away, could potentially evade our vaccines,” she added.When COVID-19 spreads, the virus replicates its genetic material to infect more cells. In the process, that material sometimes mutates from the original strain.Andrew Pekosz, a professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said the virus mutates randomly but at a steady rate.Most changes do not help or inhibit the virus’s ability to spread, but “very, very infrequently” its genetic material alters to give it the upper hand, he said.It’s “incredibly difficult to predict” when these mutations will occur, Pekosz said, adding that the opportunities for alterations increase in areas where the virus can spread easily.“Until we make sure that the virus can't freely replicate in the population anywhere in the world, we're always going to have that increased likelihood of mutations occurring,” he said.
Florida Leads U.S. in Covid-19 Cases as Hospitalizations Surge – WSJ —Florida is recording more Covid-19 cases than any other U.S. state, as hospitalizations in some areas increase at the fastest rate since the start of the pandemic. The state accounts for one in five new infections in the U.S. and logged 73,181 cases over the past week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Florida had 341 cases per 100,000 people over the past week, second only to Louisiana. The weekly total of new cases reported by Florida jumped more than fourfold between July 1 and July 22, reaching its highest point since mid-January. Deaths in Florida totaled 319 over the past week, the most among states, with a rate of 1.5 per 100,000 people, the fourth-highest, according to the CDC. Epidemiologists say various factors are at play: large numbers of unvaccinated people, a relaxation of preventive measures like mask-wearing and social distancing, the spread of thehighly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus and the congregation of people indoors during hot summer months. The number of people hospitalized in Florida has climbed steeply over the past month, reaching 3,849 on July 17, the largest tally since late February, according to a data dashboard created by Dr. Salemi. Patients are skewing younger, with 53% under age 60, compared with 30% at the start of the year. Among people age 12 or older in Florida, 55% are fully vaccinated, compared with 57% nationally, according to the CDC. At University of Florida Health Jacksonville’s two hospitals, 146 patients have been admitted with Covid-19—a record high for the facilities, exceeding the previous peak of 125 in January, said Chad Neilsen, director of accreditation and infection prevention. Covid-19 patients take up three-quarters of the beds at the system’s north campus, which draws people from more-rural areas with low vaccination rates, he said.“This is a rate of admissions to our hospital that we have not seen before ever,” Dr. Neilsen said. “It really has been unbelievable.”In response, the medical center is shifting some patients from the north campus, which is over capacity, to a downtown campus. The facilities took measures to prepare, stocking up on personal protective equipment and testing materials. But they are contending with a staff shortage, a challenge hospitals across the U.S. are facing. Nearly 110 staff members at UF Health Jacksonville are out because they either tested positive for Covid-19 or are awaiting results,
CNN: Every county in Florida, Arkansas rated 'high transmission' for community spread --Every county in Florida and Arkansas is currently registered as having “high” levels of community transmission of COVID-19, CNN reported on Monday, citing data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The CDC labels counties as having high transmission if there have been 100 or more cases of COVID-19 per 100,00 residents, or if its test positivity rate is 10 percent or higher for the previous seven days, according to CNN. Florida, which is comprised of 67 counties, recorded an average of 10,452 new COVID-19 cases over the past week, more than triple the average daily number of infections reported two weeks ago, according to CNN, citing data from Johns Hopkins University. The case rate in Florida from the past week is outpacing the national. rate, according to CNN. The Sunshine State recorded roughly 49 new cases per 100,000 people per day, while the U.S. is tracking about 16 new cases per 100,000 people daily. Arkansas and Louisiana were the only two states that recorded higher case rates than Florida, according to the network. Florida, however, leads states in the number of COVID-19 deaths reported over the past week, with 282 people losing their lives. That number, according to CNN, is the sixth highest per capita rate of deaths in the U.S. The state is currently trailing the U.S. overall when it comes to vaccinations, with 48.5 percent of its residents fully inoculated. In the U.S., 49.1 percent of the population has completed its vaccination series. Circumstances are also difficult in Arkansas, which saw its positivity rate rise to 19.3 percent in the past week, CNN reported, citing the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The state, which is made up of 75 counties, recorded 11,784 new cases and 56 new deaths over the past week. Roughly 36 percent of the Arkansas population is fully vaccinated, according to CNN. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) on Sunday said COVID-19 cases are increasing because of the state’s low vaccination rate. He said that statistic is “holding us back.” He did note, however, that the state’s vaccination push has been successful in recent days, with a 40 percent increase in inoculations. The state has made an effort to encourage vaccinations during Town Hall meetings.
Orlando area in 'crisis mode' as COVID-19 cases spike -The mayor of Florida's Orange County, Jerry Demings, said Monday that that county, which includes Orlando, is "now in crisis mode" as COVID-19 cases surge the area. Demings said at a press conference Monday that after a conference call with counties and hospitals within the region, "all of them were sounding their alarms," as they are seeing “alarming numbers of critically ill individuals entering their hospitals.” Demings noted that the positivity rate in the county for COVID-19 tests is now at 13.96 percent, which has drastically changed from the 4.28 percent reported a month earlier. The county is reportedly seeing nearly 1,000 new COVID-19 cases per day. The mayor called the numbers "extraordinary." “Those are the numbers we saw at the highest peak last year,” Demings said. “A thousand a day is extraordinary. We are now in crisis mode.” Demings noted that multiple centers in the area offer COVID-19 vaccinations. "Bottom line is that the delta variant cases are on the rise and residents must do everything possible to protect themselves and their loved ones, which includes getting vaccinated and following CDC health and safety guidelines," he said. Victor Herrera, Orlando chief medical officer of AdventHealth, a non-profit healthcare system, moved its emergency status to “red,” which imposes additional measures like delaying elective procedures due to rising COVID-19 patients. “Although we are in a very tight capacity situation, we stand ready to meet the demands of our community, and all the health care needs,” Herrera said at the press conference. “We have the appropriate equipment, space and everything that is needed — even if cases continue to go up — to continue to care for COVID and not COVID-19 patients.”
Florida virus cases soar, hospitals near last summer's peak (AP) — Hospital admissions of coronavirus patients continue to soar in Florida with at least two areas in the state surpassing the previous peaks of last summer's surge, prompting calls by local officials for the governor to declare an emergency.A large hospital system in Jacksonville said its hospitals were at maximum capacity, its emergency centers also at a critical point as the state grappled with the new and more infectious delta variant of the COVID-19 virus.In Brevard County, two hospitals began setting up treatment tents at its emergency departments. And at a Fort Lauderdale park, a long line of cars snaked around a testing site, recalling the first weeks of the pandemic last year.Florida hospitals reported more than 8,900 patients with COVID-19 on Thursday, according to data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The Florida Hospital Association said the state peaked at 10,179 cases last July.The patient number on Thursday was five times higher than a month ago, and it quickly climbed from about 5,500 in just one week."What’s extraordinary is the speed at which we are currently seeing new cases,” said Dr. Vincent Hsu, executive director of infection prevention and hospital epidemiologist at AdventHealth in Orlando. “The slope is pretty steep, and we haven’t seen the end of it. This is still coming.”AdventHealth said Thursday it had reached a new high on Thursday since the pandemic began with about 1,000 COVID-19 hospitalized patients across its system in central Florida. Twelve hospitals in the state are reporting critical staffing shortages to the federal government.The state reported to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention an additional 17,500 cases — making one fifth of the national new caseload — and 56 new deaths, raising the total death toll for the state to nearly 38,900.
More than 110,400 new COVID-19 cases reported in Florida as positivity rate climbs— More than 110,400 new cases of coronavirus have been reported throughout the state in the past week and 108 deaths. The Florida Department of Health released new data showing 110,477 new cases of COVID-19 within the state over the past week. The number of new cases surpassed last week's high of 73,196 cases. For the week of June 25, the state reported only 15,998 new cases, making this month's number's a drastic spike. The state's positivity rate has also spiked, going from 15.3% to 18.1%. Despite the high number of cases throughout Florida, the state is also seeing a steady increase in vaccination numbers. This past week, 334,064 people have been vaccinated within the state. In Orange County, there were 7,913 new cases reported with an 18.2 positivity case over the past week. In Seminole County, 2,419 new cases of COVID-19 were reported with a 22.5% positivity rate.
Florida coronavirus cases jump 50 percent in one week- The number of coronavirus cases in Florida has jumped 50 percent over the past week, officials said Friday, as the state that already makes up a large chunk of the nation's total cases sees a surge in new infections.The Florida Department of Health said there were more than 110,000 new cases recorded this week, a jump from the more than 73,000 reported last week. Case numbers have returned to the level seen in January, before widespread distribution of the vaccine. Just over 50 percent of Florida's population is fully vaccinated,according to Johns Hopkins University, though vaccinations have increased recently.The number of vaccine doses administered has increased more than 15 percent in a week, from 288,870 to 334,064, according to state health department data.Federal health officials this week urged local governments to reinstitute indoor mask requirements, even for fully vaccinated individuals, in an effort to curb the spread of the contagious delta variant.Florida is second nationally in new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations, behind Louisiana and Nevada, respectively, according to a local NBC affiliate. The Sunshine State has made up about a fifth of new cases reported in the U.S. recently."COVID-19 vaccines are very effective, but no vaccine is perfect. In some instances, fully vaccinated people will get COVID-19 and may be contagious," the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said Friday."As the number of people who are vaccinated goes up, the number of breakthrough cases is also expected to increase, even as the vaccines remain highly effective," it added.Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has urged Florida residents to get vaccinated, but has also criticized the CDC's masking guidance and signaled he won't go along with efforts to require indoor face coverings.The governor on Friday announced he had signed an executive order directing state officials to push to "protect parents' freedom to choose whether their children wear masks" when school starts this fall.“The federal government has no right to tell parents that in order for their kids to attend school in person, they must be forced to wear a mask all day, every day,” he said in a statement.He added during a press conference that his own family would decline to wear masks.“I have (three) young kids. My wife and I are not going to do the mask with the kids. We never have, we won’t. I want to see my kids smiling. I want them having fun," he said.
California Counties See COVID Cases Rising In Most Heavily Vaccinated Counties -Some might have been surprised to see California on Dr. Anthony Fauci's map of high-risk areas where the new federal indoor mask mandates must be obeyed. The Golden State was deemed more high risk than Texas. Indeed, scientists are finding that despite its high vaccination rates, California is seeing more COVID cases than it should.California and its big coastal cities have embraced vaccines in their effort to beat back the COVID pandemic. But a Bay Area News Group analysis shows that not only are cases rising fast, they are rising in areas where there are more fully vaccinated people. Some of these counties have both among the highest vaccination rates, and the highest new-case rates.Notice that five of these counties have both a higher percentage of their eligible residents fully vaccinated and a higher average daily case rate than the statewide average. They include: LA, San Diego, Alameda, Contra Costa and San Francisco. The five counties with falling case rates are Modoc, Glenn, Lassen, Del Norte, San Benito, and they, coincidentally, have below-average vaccination rates.As to what might be causing this, experts point to two things: the extraordinary ease with which the virus' now-dominant delta strain spreads, and the fact that no vaccine offers complete protection."I am not so surprised that transmission rates are not neatly tracking immunization rates," said Dr. Stephen Luby, a medical professor specializing in infectious diseases at Stanford University."There are a number of issues that contribute to transmission," Luby said. "In high density urban settings, for example, even with a higher level of vaccine coverage, there can still be a lot of exposure to unvaccinated folks and potentially to folks who are vaccinated but are asymptomatically shedding the delta variant."
Coronavirus dashboard for July 28: you’re reading the right blog, ghoulish edition In writing about the economy, I make use of long and short leading indicators to forecast coincident indicators. In writing about COVID, the template isn’t much different: cases lead hospitalizations by about 2 weeks, which in turn lead deaths by about 2 weeks. Put another way, cases lead deaths by about 4 weeks.Four weeks ago I wrote:“we have to start worrying about COVID again, because the delta variant has now taken hold in up to 8 States with rising new cases. All of those States have fewer vaccinations per capita than the national average, and most of them much below the average. By the end of July, I anticipate that it will be clear there is a new ‘wave’ of cases in the relatively unvaccinated States.”In the past 4 weeks, cases have nearly quintupled from about 11,300 to 55,000. Hospitalizations have risen about 2.5x. And here is what deaths nationwide look like, vs. cases:
Deaths have been trending slightly higher and just made a 1 month high.And here are deaths in the bellwether States that were first hit with Delta, plus a few others:
Deaths in some of those States have started to go parabolic.In the last 4 weeks, the US has gone from about 47% fully vaccinated to just under 50% fully vaccinated - i.e., not much of a change.Here is what is going to happen in the next month. Deaths are going to follow cases. Cases have nearly quintupled. Deaths are going to nearly quintuple - I.e., to a level of about 1,000/month.
Mississippi cites ‘astounding’ rise in Covid-19 cases as Delta variant spreads - Mississippi’s top state health officials warned on Wednesday of an “astounding” rise in Covid-19 cases that threatens to overwhelm some hospitals’ intensive care units. They ordered hospitals to forgo some elective surgeries and to adhere to a plan to transfer patients to other facilities with available beds when necessary. The number of Covid-19 infections in the past two weeks was well over double the number recorded for the first half of July, the officials said at a news conference. Deaths rose by 51 percent over the same period and now average between three and four a day, according to the statistics presented. Statewide, the statistics showed, more than 300 Covid-19 patients were in intensive care or on a ventilator, compared with a few dozen at the start of the month. Where intensive care units are full, some patients are being treated in emergency rooms, the officials said. Rampant misinformation about the safety and effectiveness of vaccines is undercutting the state’s efforts, said Dr. Thomas Dobbs, the state health officer. “We’re going to make the vaccine available, but you know, there’s a mountain of opposition to us from some folks,” he said. “We have gotten ourselves into this mess together, and we need to get ourselves out together.” While the national outlook is also worsening quickly, Mississippi is one of a handful of states where the rate of infections is skyrocketing. Fewer than one half of adults have received at least one shot, putting the state at the bottom of the nation’s vaccination rate ranks and rendering much of its population vulnerable to the highly contagious Delta variant. Dr. Dobbs said the flood of Covid-19 patients means hospitals in the state must forgo elective surgeries that require overnight stays and must be prepared to fly Covid-19 patients to other facilities if beds run short. He said that many health professionals are “absolutely worn out” from previous surges and that some hospital nurses are quitting — a trend that could make it harder to handle the ongoing spike. Dr. Paul Byers, the state epidemiologist, called the rise in the number of daily infections “astounding.” He cited 72 long-term-care facilities where unvaccinated staffers have been largely spreading the virus, but he also mentioned settings like summer schools and cheerleading camps.
6 States See 400% Increase in COVID-19 Cases - Daily COVID-19 case rates across the country have risen in nearly all states since June as the highly contagious delta variant spreads, according to a new report from USAFacts. The report, which excludes Nebraska because the state no longer regularly updates COVID-19 case counts, found that every state but Iowa has increased daily new cases compared to mid-June. USAFacts' analysis also shows that six states have seen their number of positive COVID-19 cases shoot up more than 400% in recent weeks: Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Tennessee. All 15 states with a seven-day average case rate higher than the U.S. average, around 18 cases per 100,000 people, also had lower vaccination rates than the U.S. as a whole, although not all states with low vaccination rates have seen case rates spike.Seven-day averages of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people vary between Iowa’s low, with a rate of 1.5, to Louisiana’s high with more than 79.2 cases per 100,000 as of July 27. While cases continue to increase, the seven-day nationwide average is still down from 250,527 in its peak in January to 58,192 cases, a 77% drop.
Coronavirus in Arkansas: 2,544 new cases, 13 additional deaths— The Arkansas Department of Health coronavirus dashboardrecorded 2,544 new COVID-19 cases and 13 additional deaths due to the virus in Arkansas on Friday, July 30.There are 18,541 cases statewide considered active by the Arkansas Department of Health.A total of 1,087 people are hospitalized and 219 are on ventilators. The statewide death toll due to COVID-19 increased to 6,123. Of the state’s 2,854,750 vaccine doses, 2,332,296 have been administered, according to the Arkansas Department of Health. 302,110 people have received only their first dose, while 1,056,447 people are fully vaccinated.
Number of new COVID-19 cases in Utah climbs even higher — to 1,211 - The number of new cases of COVID-19 in Utah reported on Friday surpassed Thursday’s 5½-month high — 1,211 was the most since Feb. 10. In the past two days, the Utah Department of Health has reported more than 2,300 new cases of the coronavirus. The rolling seven day average of new cases hit 755, the most since Feb. 23.
- Vaccine doses administered in past day/total doses administered • 7,389 / 3,016,983.
- Utahns fully vaccinated • 1,478,589.
- Cases reported in past day • 1,211.
- Deaths reported in past day • One — a Salt Lake County woman between the ages of 65-84.
- Tests reported in past day • 7,589 people were tested for the first time. A total of 12,646 people were tested.
- Hospitalizations reported in the past day • 351. That’s two fewer than on Thursday. Of those currently hospitalized, 152 are in intensive care, four fewer than on Thursday.
- Percentage of positive tests • Under the state’s original method, the rate is 16%. That’s higher than the seven-day average of 14.7%.
- The state’s new method counts all test results, including repeated tests of the same individual. Friday’s rate was 9.6%, lower than the seven-day average of 10.4%
- Totals to date • 432,467 cases; 2,451 deaths; 18,567 hospitalizations; 2,917,728 people tested.
On Friday, three doctors from University of Utah Health spent an hour on Facebook Live working to debunk misconceptions about the COVID-19 vaccines — and explaining how scientific expertise adjusts when a virus evolves. The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s guideline update this week, which recommended even vaccinated people wear face masks when indoors, has prompted criticism that experts are sending mixed messages about COVID-19. Part of that problem, said Dr. Jeanmarie Mayer, hospital epidemiologist for U. of U. Health’s hospitals and clinics, “is that the virus is changing.” Mayer noted that “the delta variant is a much more contagious strain of the virus” — and the CDC was reacting to new data that shows even people who are vaccinated can spread it to others. The CDC, she said, “changed the recommendation based on that changing science.” Mayer urged people who have already suffered from COVID-19 to get vaccinated. “Vaccination provides longer protection and broader protection” than natural infection, she said — and is more likely to fend off variants of the virus.
Coronavirus in Illinois: 11,682 New COVID Cases, 39 Deaths, 154K Vaccinations in the Past Week – Illinois health officials on Friday reported 11,682 new COVID-19 cases in the past week, along with 39 additional deaths and more than 154,000 new vaccine doses administered. COVID cases statewide have increased 46% over the last week, with hospitalizations up 35%, according to the Illinois Department of Public Health. Intensive care unit admissions also increased by 24% and there was a 41% increase of COVID patients on ventilators. In all, 1,419,611 cases of coronavirus have been reported in the state since the pandemic began. The additional deaths reported this week bring the state to 23,440 confirmed COVID fatalities. The state has administered 289,433 tests since last Friday, officials said, bringing the total to more than 26 million tests conducted during the pandemic. The state’s seven-day positivity rate on all tests rose to 4% from 3.3% the week before and 1.9% two weeks prior. The rolling average seven-day positivity rate on individuals tested rose to 4.7%, up from 3.5% last week, officials said. IDPH noted, however, that the regional seven-day positivity rate ranges from 2.8% to 9.5%. Over the past seven days, a total of 154,447 doses of the coronavirus vaccine have been administered to Illinois residents. That brings the state’s average to 22,064 daily vaccination doses over the last week, down from the figures reported last Friday, per IDPH data.
In Missouri, some people are trying to get vaccinated in secret, a doctor says. - The Covid-19 vaccination effort has become so polarized in Missouri that some people are responding to the state’s Delta-driven surge by trying to get shots in secret, a doctor there said. In a video circulated by her employer, Dr. Priscilla A. Frase, a hospitalist and the chief medical information officer at Ozarks Healthcare in West Plains, Mo., said this month that several people had pleaded for anonymity when they came in to be vaccinated, and that some appeared to have made an effort to disguise themselves.“I work closely with our pharmacists who are leading our vaccine efforts through our organization,” she said, “and one of them told me the other day that they had several people come in to get vaccinated who have tried to sort of disguise their appearance and even went so far as to say, ‘Please, please please, don’t let anyone know that I got this vaccine.’”It was not clear how many people had tried to alter their appearance to avoid recognition, or how they had done so. Dr. Frase, who wore a mask in the video, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Some people, she said in the video, are “very concerned about how their people that they love, within their family and within their friendship circles and their work circles, are going to react if they found out that they got the vaccine.” “Nobody should have to feel that kind of pressure to get something that they want, you know,” she added. “We should all be able to be free to do what we want to do, and that includes people who don’t want to get the vaccine as well as people who do want to get the vaccine. But we’ve got to stop ridiculing people that do or don’t want to get the vaccine.”
Fall could be ‘very challenging’ if vaccinations don’t ramp up, HHS official says - The United States needs to expand its vaccination campaign going into the fall if the country is going to stem the nationwide surge of coronavirus cases driven by the delta variant, one of the federal government’s top health officials said Friday.“I think that the prospects for the fall could be very challenging,” Rachel L. Levine, assistant secretary for health at the Department of Health and Human Services, said in a discussion hosted by The Washington Post. “However, if we are able to continue to ramp up our vaccination program, that’s the most important way to protect people in the fall.”Levine’s remarks came as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday published a sobering scientific analysis showing that vaccinated people can spread the highly transmissible delta variant and may be contributing to the ongoing spike in infections. The data helped convince officials this week to call on people to resume wearing masks indoors, regardless of their vaccination status. Levine emphasized the dangers of the delta variant, saying it was at least twice as contagious as previous forms of the virus, and noted that it was the main factor behind the CDC’s decision to change its guidance on masking. She also warned that the virus would continue to mutate as more people got sick.“Now is the time for people to get vaccinated,” she said. “That’s the best way to protect against the development of these variants.”The pace of vaccinations has ticked up recently after bottoming out around a half million shots per day in mid-July. About 710,000 doses were administered nationwide Thursday, bringing the rolling average of daily doses to about 615,000, according to The Post’s tracking.Addressing a major concern for parents as the school year approaches, Levine said data from clinical trials studying use of the vaccines in children under age 12 may be available by the end of the year.“We’ll be looking at the science. It’s hard to put a date on when the scientific studies will be complete,” she said. She added that officials don’t expect “to see a different safety profile for what we saw in teens.” …
Long COVID cases among children and pediatric death toll rise globally --In the wake of the reopening of economies and public institutions the world over, the COVID- 19 pandemic continues to cross national borders, continually driving the spread of new and more virulent strains of the disease. With more than 194 million people having been infected worldwide, the most vulnerable populations include children and adolescents.According to the organization Long COVID Kids, over 40 children a day in the UK are being hospitalized with COVID-19, as the Delta variant has come to dominate. There has been a huge surge in the number of children becoming infected. New data shows that a growing number of children who have tested positive for the disease have gone on to develop Long COVID, with symptoms lasting beyond 12 weeks. So far, in the UK alone, 33,000 children ages 2–16 and 71,000 young people ages 17–24 are suffering from Long COVID.Dr. Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist and senior lecturer for Queen Mary University of London, recently wrote an article on the Long COVID Kids site, pointing to two studies: the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data study and the REACT-1 (Real-time Assessment for Community Transmission) data study for the evidence of Long COVID in children and young adults. He states that anywhere between 10 percent and 50 percent of those infected with coronavirus suffer from Long COVID symptomsThe ONS study found that 13.7 percent of participants continued to experience symptoms past 12 weeks after initial infection. And of 400,000 who reported suffering from Long COVID, 9,000 are children. Gurdasani notes that for many children, their symptoms are not mild, but affect their lives in profound ways. Many of the children have not been able to return to some of their favorite activities.In the UK, the estimate is between one in seven or eight children have contracted COVID, or over 1 million children, and children’s hospitals are beginning to fill up quickly. In addition to new cases, some children who have been living with Long COVID have been readmitted to hospitals due to relapses in their health.In Indonesia, more than 100 children a week have died from COVID 19, the majority of whom were younger than five years of age, discrediting the myth that COVID-19 is of little consequence to young children. According to theNew York Times, this represents a mortality rate for children much higher than any other country, and an infection rate for children of 12.5 percent. In southeast Asia, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Vietnam have also seen a record number of coronavirus cases and deaths among children.
The European Union pulls ahead of the United States in vaccinations. - The 27 member states of the European Union altogether have now administered more coronavirus vaccine doses per 100 people than the United States, in another sign that inoculations across the bloc have maintained some speed throughout the summer, while they have stagnated for weeks in the United States.E.U. countries had administered 102.66 doses per 100 people as of Tuesday, while the United States had administered 102.44, according to the latest vaccination figures compiled by Our World in Data. This month, the European Union also overtook the United States in first injections; currently, 58 percent of people across the bloc have received a dose, compared with 56.5 percent in the United States.The latest figures provide a stark contrast with the early stages of the vaccination campaigns this year, when E.U. countries, facing a shortage of doses and delayed deliveries, looked in envy at the initially more successful efforts in the United States, Britain and Israel.But the European Union is now vaccinating its populations at a faster pace than most developed countries. More than 70 percent of adults in the bloc have now received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine.Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said the achievement put E.U. countries “among the world leaders.”“The catch-up process has been very successful,” she said in a statement on Tuesday.As inoculation campaigns in many American states have been marred by widespread anti-vaccine sentiment, E.U. countries have been able to immunize their populations with less pushback.Around 75 percent of residents in the bloc agree that vaccines are the only way to end the coronavirus pandemic, according to a public survey conducted across the European Union in May.Furthermore, 79 percent said they intended to get vaccinated “sometime this year.”Yet the spread of the Delta variant has added new urgency. Cases have soared in countries such as the Netherlands and Portugal, and hospitalizations have increased in France and Spain, among others, driving officials to try to speed up vaccination campaigns that have slightly slowed in recent weeks.
Why Are UK Covid Cases Declining? - Yves Smith - As many of you know, the UK declared July 19 as Freedom Day, when nearly all remaining Covid restrictions were to end. We didn’t say much about it because so many in the Twitterverse and the British press declared it to be a terrible idea, given that only 56% of the population was fully vaccinated (although that does amount to 68% of adults). That’s not enough to reduce R0 to below 1, given how contagious the Delta variant is. It didn’t get off to a good start. From Reuters: Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ‘freedom day’ ending over a year of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in England was marred on Monday by surging infections, warnings of supermarket shortages and his own forced self-isolation…. But Johnson’s big day was marred by “pingdemic chaos” as a National Health Service app ordered hundreds of thousands of people to self-isolate – prompting warnings supermarket shelves could soon be emptied…. Britain has the seventh highest death toll in the world, 128,708, and is forecast to soon have more new infections each day than it did at the height of a second wave of the virus earlier this year. On Sunday there were 48,161 new cases. Yet here we are, a bit over a week later, and UK Covid cases are down, despite the announcement of what looked to be superspreader events in the making. Here are two contrasting takes, the first from the Financial Times, which takes the fall at face value, and then from Richard Murphy, who speculates that it is to a significant degree a data artifact. Of course, this could also be “Covid moves in mysterious ways” (recall the unexpected decline in the US after the year end through third week of January surge, which was anticipated to get even worse) or another example of Boris Johnson again being lucky.
In Spain, vaccinations and the virus are both surging. - After a slow start, Spain’s vaccination program has accelerated to near the forefront in Europe, with just over 55 percent of its population fully vaccinated, according to figures released Tuesday by the country’s health ministry. But for all its recent success with vaccines, Spain is also experiencing one of the worst surges in new Covid-19 cases on the continent, forcing several of its regions to reintroduce nighttime curfews and other restrictions. The country is now averaging more than 25,000 new cases a day, a sixfold increase from late June.The State Department warned Americans on Monday to avoid traveling to Spain because of its recent rise in Covid-19 infections, a setback for a country where tourism is an important industry. Germany took a similar step last week, classifying Spain as a high-incidence country and requiring unvaccinated travelers arriving from there to quarantine for five days.Spain started administering vaccines in late December, and took until mid-February to fully vaccinate its first million residents; since then the effort has gathered pace, and as of Tuesday, just over 26 million people had been fully vaccinated. The latest data suggests that Spain is now on track to fulfill a pledge made early this year by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez that 70 percent of Spaniards would be vaccinated by late August.Nearly two-thirds of new infections in recent weeks have been among people under 40, the deputy health minister, Silvia Calzon, told reporters on Friday, according to Reuters. Spain has prioritized vaccination by age.The country has been using all of the main vaccines acquired by the European Union, including the two-dose vaccines developed by Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca-University of Oxford as well as the one-shot vaccine from Janssen, a European subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson. But the vast majority of Spaniards have received the Pfizer shot.Unlike some other European nations, which have delayed second shots in order to administer first shots sooner to more people, Spain is administering second doses of the Pfizer vaccine at the recommended time, 21 days after the initial dose. As a result, it has relatively few partly vaccinated people at any given time.
Israel will give third Covid vaccine shots to those 60 and older. - Israel will begin administering a third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine to those 60 and older, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett announced on Thursday, citing the rising risk of a virus surge fueled by the Delta variant.The health ministry has instructed the country’s four main health care providers to begin giving on Sunday a booster shot of the Pfizer vaccine to Israelis in that age group who received a second dose more than five months ago. President Isaac Herzog, 60, will be the first to get a booster shot on Friday, Mr. Bennett said.Whether booster shots are needed by older citizens is an issue that is far from settled among scientists. Most studies indicate that immunity resulting from the vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna is long-lasting, and researchers are still trying to interpret recent Israeli data suggesting a decline in efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine months after inoculation.Pfizer on Wednesday offered up its own study showing a marginal decline in efficacy against symptomatic infection with the coronavirus months after immunization, although the vaccine remained powerfully effective against severe disease and death. The company has begun making a case for booster shots in the United States, as well.The latest government decision in Israel, an early leader in administering vaccines, follows an analysis by the health ministry that estimated that the effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in preventing serious illness remained higher than 90 percent — but that its ability to stop infection had fallen over time.Some experts have pushed back against a rush to approve a booster in Israel. The data are too uncertain, they say, to estimate of how much efficacy has waned. For example, the Delta-driven outbreak hit parts of the country with high vaccination rates first and has been hitting other regions later.Since June, there has been a steady rise in Israel’s daily rate of new virus cases, and the seven-day average is 1,670 a day. The figure exceeded 2,300 one day this week, a spike that health experts have attributed to the spread of the more contagious Delta variant.
Latin America risks other outbreaks as Covid interferes with prevention and treatment - The coronavirus pandemic is opening the way for other preventable diseases to surge across Latin America and the Caribbean, interfering with routine inoculations and medical treatment in one of the world’s hardest-hit regions, World Health Organization officials warned on Wednesday.There has been a sharp decline in measles vaccinations throughout the region, and a recent survey found that the pandemic had slowed efforts to diagnose and treat viral hepatitis B and C infections throughout Latin America and the Caribbean.“More than 300,000 children, mostly in Brazil and Mexico, missed out on their routine immunizations last year, leaving them vulnerable to deadly yet preventable infections,” said Dr. Carissa F. Etienne, the director of the Pan American Health Organization, a part of the W.H.O.“If we do not reverse these trends, we risk an avalanche of worsening health issues in the Americas,” she added. “Soon, Covid-19 will not be the only health crisis demanding countries’ attention.”Though overall caseloads have declined in the region since the spring, Covid-19 continues to take a devastating toll, and several Latin American nations, including Argentina, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador and Paraguay are “among the countries reporting the world’s highest weekly death rates,” Dr. Etienne said at a weekly briefing. She warned that “too many places have relaxed the public health and safety measures that have proven so effective against this virus.”Officials voiced particular concern about Cuba, which is reporting its highest rates of new cases and deaths since the pandemic began. Hot spots have also been detected in parts of Argentina, Colombia and Mexico, and new cases have risen sharply in the United States. Though vaccines have been plentiful in the United States, Canada, Chile, Uruguay and a few other countries in the Americas, they have been scarce elsewhere. Only one-sixth of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean has been fully vaccinated.
Over 100 children died from COVID-19 in Indonesia each week in July -Indonesia is now experiencing more than 1,500 deaths from COVID-19 each day on a seven-day average and has become the epicenter of the pandemic in Asia and globally. With the Delta variant now dominant in the country and only 7 percent of the population fully vaccinated, confirmed daily cases have reached a peak of 50,000. However, because of a lack of sufficient testing, the positivity rate is hovering around 30 percent, implying a gross underestimation of the true extent of the community spread.Coinciding with this catastrophic surge of cases and deaths has been a disturbing rise in hospitalizations and deaths among children, upending previous data that found that children infected with the virus face lower rates of mortality.According to the Indonesian Pediatric Society, there have been more than 360,000 confirmed cases among children, accounting for one in eight infections. Additionally, over 700 children have died from COVID-19 in the last few weeks, at a rate of over 100 per week. Shockingly, over 150 children died during the week of July 12 alone, with half of these under the age of five.Dr. Aman Bhakti Pulungan, head of the Indonesian Pediatric Society, told the New York Times, “Our [child death rate] numbers are the highest in the world. Why are we not giving the best for our children?”Health authorities have noted that the rise in childhood deaths in Indonesia has coincided with the surge in the Delta variant of the coronavirus, underscoring the immense dangers facing children worldwide, the vast majority of whom remain unvaccinated in every country.In Brazil, COVID-19 has become the leading cause of death among children ages 10-19, cutting down at least 1,581 youth in just the first six months of 2021. Another 1,187 children under 10 years old have succumbed to the virus since the start of the pandemic.Even in more developed countries, where the Delta variant is surging, there is an attendant growth in child hospitalizations and deaths. In the UK, over 40 children are now being hospitalized with COVID-19 each day, alongside a general surge in the number of children becoming infected. Roughly 33,000 children ages 2-16 and 71,000 young people ages 17–24 have gone on to develop Long COVID, with symptoms lasting beyond 12 weeks.In the US, child hospitalizations are also surging. On Tuesday, Arkansas Children’s Hospital reported their highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations at any point in the pandemic, with 24 admitted with the virus that day alone. Officials noted that of the 24 children admitted, seven are in intensive care and four are on ventilators. None of the hospitalized children are fully vaccinated, despite more than half of them being eligible. Similar surges of child infections and hospitalizations are taking place wherever the Delta variant is surging in the US, including in Florida, Alabama and throughout the South, as well as Missouri and a growing number of states.
Thailand reports daily record of new coronavirus cases and new deaths (Reuters) - Thailand reported on Saturday a daily record of 18,912 new coronavirus infections, bringing the country's total accumulated cases to 597,287. The country also reported 178 new deaths, also a daily record, taking total fatalities to 4,857.
COVID-19 surge hits Asia; Tokyo, Thailand, Malaysia post record infections (Reuters) -The Olympics host city Tokyo, as well as Thailand and Malaysia, announced record COVID-19 infections on Saturday, mostly driven by the highly transmissible Delta variant of the disease. The surge in Delta variant cases is rattling parts of Asia previously relatively successful in containing COVID-19, such as Vietnam, which will from Monday impose strict curbs on movement in several cities and provinces. Cases also surged in Sydney, where police cordoned off the central business district to prevent a protest against a strict lockdown that will last until the end of August. Police in Sydney closed train stations, banned taxis from dropping passengers off downtown and deployed 1,000 officers to set up checkpoints and to disperse groups. The government of New South Wales reported 210 new infections in Sydney and surrounding areas from the Delta variant outbreak. Tokyo's metropolitan government announced a record number of 4,058 infections in the past 24 hours. Olympics organisers reported 21 new COVID-19 cases related to the Games, bringing the total to 241 since July 1. A day earlier Japan extended its state of emergency for Tokyo to the end of August and expanded it to three prefectures near the capital and to the western prefecture of Osaka. Olympics organisers said on Saturday they had revoked accreditation of a Games-related person or people for leaving the athletes' village for sightseeing, a violation of measures imposed to hold the Olympics safely amid the pandemic. The organisers did not disclose how many people were involved, if the person or people were athletes, or when the violation took place. Malaysia, one of the hotspots of the disease, reported 17,786 coronavirus cases on Saturday, a record high. More than 100 people gathered in the centre of Kuala Lumpur expressing dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the pandemic and calling on Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin to quit. Protesters carried black flags and held up placards that read “Kerajaan Gagal” (failed government) – a hashtag popular on social media for months. Thailand also reported a daily record high of 18,912 new coronavirus infections, bringing its total cases to 597,287. The country also reported 178 new deaths, also a daily record. The government said the Delta variant accounted for more than 60% of the cases in the country and 80% of the cases in Bangkok. The variant is not necessarily more lethal than other variants, but much more transmissible, said Supakit Sirilak, the director-general of Thailand's Department of Medical Sciences. At Thammasat University Hospital near the capital Bangkok, a morgue overwhelmed by COVID-19 deaths has begun storing bodies in refrigerated containers, resorting to a measure it last took in a 2004 tsunami, a hospital director said. China is battling an outbreak of the Delta variant in the eastern city of Nanjing which has been traced to airport workers who cleaned a plane which had arrived from Russia. Vietnam, grappling with its worst COVID-19 outbreak, announced that from Monday it will impose strict curbs on movement in its business hub Ho Chi Minh City and another 18 cities and provinces throughout its south for another two weeks. COVID-19 infections have increased by 80% over the past four weeks in most regions of the world, WHO Director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Friday. "Hard-won gains are in jeopardy or being lost, and health systems in many countries are being overwhelmed," Tedros told a news conference.
Thai hospital resorts to storing bodies in containers as COVID-19 cases soar -As the number of COVID-19 cases soars in Thailand, one hospital morgue has been forced to store bodies that have yet to be autopsied in containers. A director at the Thammasat University Hospital near Bangkok told Reuters the hospital has had to resort to tactics not seen since the 2004 tsunami that struck the area. The hospital's morgue generally performs a maximum of seven autopsies each day, but it has seen more than 10 bodies daily, overwhelming its 10-freezer capacity. "There's not enough space, so we bought two containers for bodies' storage," director Pharuhat Tor-udom told Reuters. "During the tsunami, we used containers to store bodies waiting to be autopsied for identification. But we haven't had to do that (again) until now," Tor-udom said. According to the hospital official, among bodies with an unidentifiable cause of death, 20 percent of them later tested positive for the coronavirus. The grim development follows a worrying surge of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Thailand as the country continues to post new record-highs. According to data from the World Health Organization (WHO), Thailand had 17,345 confirmed cases on Friday and the country saw its largest number of cases yet on Thursday with 17,669 cases. Overall, the country has posted over 10,000 new cases for most of the second half of July while maintaining a meager vaccination rate of 5 percent, according to data from John Hopkins University. Other cities and countries in Asia are also grappling with a worrying surge of new COVID-19 cases, including Malaysia and the Olympic’s host city Tokyo.On Friday, Tokyo recorded more than 4,000 COVID-19 cases — an all-time high for the city. On Friday, four more areas were added to Japan’s state of emergency following an increase in COVID-19 cases. According to data from WHO, Malaysia confirmed 17,170 new cases on Friday and and 17,405 new cases the day prior. The country has been reporting well over 14,000 new cases in recent days.
Up, down, sideways: Around the world, the pandemic defies easy description. - On a global scale, the latest wave of the pandemic appears to be cresting at a lower level than those of the winter and spring, but the pattern differs markedly from place to place, as each nation endures its own particular drama.The patchwork reflects the radically different paths the coronavirus takes from nation to nation, depending not only on vaccines, but on geographic isolation, the spread of the highly infectious Delta and other variants, social and economic restrictions, public compliance and an element of luck.Conditions have improved substantially in places like India and South America that a few months ago were among the hardest-hit in the world, according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.In May, India reached about 400,000 new infections and 4,000 Covid-19 deaths officially reported per day, though experts said the true toll was much higher. On Monday, the daily tally of new cases in India dipped below 30,000 for the first time in more than four months, and the country is now reporting fewer than 1,000 deaths a day.The most troubled countries now are a scattered assortment, not concentrated in any one region. Botswana, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Spain have among the highest infection rates in the world, with numbers still climbing. Indonesia, which was recording more cases than any other country this month, remains badly affected, but the pace there has eased somewhat.In many countries, rates of new cases are relatively low but have risen sharply in recent days. They include countries with some of the highest inoculation rates, like Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel and the United States, where restrictions have relaxed and the Delta variant has surged.Vaccination rates range from more than 80 percent of adults in some countries to less than 1 percent in others, including in many of the world’s poorest nations, according to data from the Our World in Data project at the University of Oxford.Britain has become an outlier: One of the most-vaccinated parts of the world, it has a high (though declining) infection rate.Globally, more than 500,000 new cases are being recorded daily, compared with more than 800,000 three months ago. But comparisons like that are fraught, because official reporting practices vary widely from region to region. The picture is especially difficult to gauge across most of Africa, where both testing and vaccines remain scarce.
Lung Virus Fills U.S. Children’s Hospitals as Isolation Ends— Oklahoma and Louisiana health officials said a surge in virus cases more frequently seen in winter is filling hospital pediatric wards as children emerge from Covid isolation. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, respiratory syncytial virus usually causes mild cold-like symptoms and most people recover within weeks. Symptoms include runny nose, loss of appetite, fever and wheezing. Infants and older adults are at increased risk of serious illness from the pathogen. RSV has been climbing nationally since April, as children who endured extended isolation during the early months of the pandemic emerged to interact more with peers at school, camps and playgrounds. The virus is most commonly seen in the colder months when children are packed together in classrooms or at daycare centers. The large out-of-season jump means hospitals are overburdened with younger patients at a time when they are facing a surge in coronavirus infections due to the delta variant. Across America, the unvaccinated epidemic is spreading, and attention is shifting to caring for its youngest victims. But in some states, this capability is already stretched. Oklahoma has seen an increase in RSV cases in June and July. “It goes along with our time coming out of COVID and unmasking and getting out and moving around,” said Cameron Mantor, medical director of Oklahoma Children’s Hospital in Oklahoma City. For Louisiana, the situation is even more complicated. State health official Joseph Cantor said, not only are officials there facing an unseasonal outbreak of RSV, but they are seeing the younger Covid patient “getting sick in greater numbers, and getting more severe with Delta.” are.” Overcrowding of facilities due to RSV outbreaks and rising COVID-19 cases presents an additional challenge for children’s hospitals during the already very busy season, Cantor said.
Bayer to Pull Glyphosate Products, Including Roundup, From U.S. Home and Garden Market - Bayer will no longer sell glyphosate-containing products to U.S. home gardeners, the company announced on Thursday.The move comes as the company currently faces around 30,000 legal claims from customers who believe use of these products — including the flagship Roundup — caused them to develop cancer, as AgWeb reported."Bayer's decision to end U.S. residential sale of Roundup is a historic victory for public health and the environment," Center for Food Safety executive director Andrew Kimbrell said in a statement. "As agricultural, large-scale use of this toxic pesticide continues, our farmworkers remain at risk. It's time for EPA to act and ban glyphosate for all uses."Glyphosate is a controversial ingredient because it has been linked to the development of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, as Cure noted. The World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer declared that it was "probably carcinogenic to humans," in 2015. While the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under former President Donald Trump ruled that thechemical did not pose any risk to human health, the Biden Administration later admitted that the review was flawed and needed to be redone, as Common Dreams reported. Still, it refused to take it off the market in the meantime.Bayer's decision comes in response to the many lawsuits related to glyphosate that it inherited when it acquired Monsanto in 2018. Juries sided with the plaintiffs in three highly-watched trials before Bayer settled around 95,000 cases in 2020 to the tune of $10 billion. That settlement, which was one of the largest in U.S. history, allowed Bayer to continue to sell Roundup without any warnings. However, the company still faces further litigation, and said it decided to pull the product from residential use in order to prevent more. More than 90 percent of recent claims come from the residential home and garden market, AgWeb reported."This move is being made exclusively to manage litigation risk and not because of any safety concerns," the company said when it announced its decision. The products will be replaced with different active ingredients beginning in 2023, following reviews by the EPA and state regulatory bodies. January 2023 was the earliest the change could reasonably be implemented, Bayer Crop Science Division president Liam Condon told AgWeb.
Battle Lines Drawn as Dicamba Injury Surfaces Once Again - Both the temperature and tempers are running hot this summer, as herbicide injury surfaces across the Midwest and South once again.Dicamba remains the primary source of complaints, although cases of 2,4-D injury are also being reported, state regulators told DTN. In October 2020, EPA granted new labels and five-year registrations to three dicamba herbicides -- XtendiMax (Bayer), Engenia (BASF) and Tavium (Syngenta) -- for use over-the-top of Xtend and XtendFlex soybeans and cottonfields. The agency added some new rules, including national cutoff dates and use of new volatility reduction agents (VRAs) in the tank.Yet regulators are watching complaints tick upwards in some states, many from soybean fields with uniform cupping injury suggesting volatilized dicamba is still at work. On social media and in rural communities, farmers and retailers are picking sides and fiercely defending their technology of choice, as rumors fly about what causes cupping symptoms in soybeans. (See more on that from DTN here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…)In the meantime, EPA is watching from afar, telling DTN the agency will "work with its experts and state partners" and review dicamba injury data submitted to it by companies and regulators later in the year. "If data demonstrate the 2020 [label] control measures are insufficient, EPA can take appropriate regulatory action to address unreasonable adverse effects," the agency wrote in an emailed statement.Many farmers fear losing access to dicamba, which -- although it is starting to slip in the Midsouth against Palmer amaranth -- remains a crucial tool against herbicide-resistant weeds in the Midwest, alongside 2,4-D and glufosinate. "Weed control has been pretty good, particularly for growers who are timely," noted Joel DeJong, a field agronomist for Iowa State University.But for other farmers, there is a growing frustration that time is up for the industry to fix its off-target dicamba movement problem, now in its fifth year."I'm hearing more and more comments in emails or texts, from farmers that are tired of seeing beans cupped every year, saying that they should just take that technology off the market," DeJong said.
Seed Treatment Overload: The Unintended Consequences of a Popular Practice -- For the first time in nearly a decade, Dan Hesterberg poured a few bags of untreated corn seed into his planter this spring."It was kind of weird opening up the seed and dumping it -- I thought, 'Wow! It's just plain old yellow corn -- no purple, no green!" the Vermilion County, Illinois, farmer recalled.The seed had no insecticides, fungicides or other chemicals on it, a rare practice known as "planting naked." While that modern moniker conjures up images of vulnerability, it was how most seed arrived on his farm until about 15 years ago, Hesterberg points out.Since then, seed companies have been coating a growing number of compounds on nearly every corn seed planted in the country; use in other row crops, such as soybeans, wheat, cotton and rice, is rising steadily as well. Yet details about their use, efficacy and fate in the environment are murky.The seed treatment industry operates with minimal federal oversight, due to a loophole in EPA's governing law, leaving questions about the amount of pesticides applied via this route and how unused treated seed is discarded each year. In the meantime, a growing number of federal and academic studies are casting doubt on its necessity, particularly in soybean fields. Another body of research is finding most of the pesticides coated on the seeds aren't staying put, with alarming consequences for water quality and wildlife. Most recently, new questions are arising over what happens to large amounts of pesticide-coated seeds that must be discarded at the end of each season. No federal laws govern the disposal of bulk amounts of treated seed, and there is little follow through or monitoring of the few facilities that accept it. This fact became painfully clear in Mead, Nebraska, this spring. There, an ethanol plant mismanaged the millions of bushels of treated corn seed it accepted from seed companies each year. The result -- hazardous seed waste piled on the facility and pesticides surfacing in ponds and surface water miles away from the facility, sometimes poisoning wildlife -- has served as a wake-up call to many in the industry.
A Soil-Science Revolution Upends Plans to Fight Climate Change - The hope was that the soil might save us. With civilization continuing to pump ever-increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, perhaps plants — nature’s carbon scrubbers — might be able to package up some of that excess carbon and bury it underground for centuries or longer.That hope has fueled increasingly ambitious climate change–mitigation plans. Researchers at the Salk Institute, for example, hopeto bioengineer plants whose roots will churn out huge amounts of a carbon-rich, cork-like substance called suberin. Even after the plant dies, the thinking goes, the carbon in the suberin should stay buried for centuries. This Harnessing Plants Initiative is perhaps the brightest star in a crowded firmament of climate change solutions based on the brown stuff beneath our feet.Such plans depend critically on the existence of large, stable, carbon-rich molecules that can last hundreds or thousands of years underground. Such molecules, collectively called humus, have long been a keystone of soil science; major agricultural practices and sophisticated climate models are built on them.But over the past 10 years or so, soil science has undergone a quiet revolution, akin to what would happen if, in physics, relativity or quantum mechanics were overthrown. Except in this case, almost nobody has heard about it — including many who hope soils can rescue the climate. “There are a lot of people who are interested in sequestration who haven’t caught up yet,” said Margaret Torn, a soil scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. A new generation of soil studies powered by modern microscopes and imaging technologies has revealed that whatever humus is, it is not the long-lasting substance scientists believed it to be. Soil researchers have concluded that even the largest, most complex molecules can be quickly devoured by soil’s abundant and voracious microbes. The magic molecule you can just stick in the soil and expect to stay there may not exist. “I have The Nature and Properties of Soils in front of me — the standard textbook,” said Gregg Sanford, a soil researcher at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. “The theory of soil organic carbon accumulation that’s in that textbook has been proven mostly false … and we’re still teaching it.” The consequences go far beyond carbon sequestration strategies. Major climate models such as those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are based on this outdated understanding of soil. Several recent studies indicate that those models are underestimating the total amount of carbon that will be released from soil in a warming climate. In addition, computer models that predict the greenhouse gas impacts of farming practices — predictions that are being used in carbon markets — are probably overly optimistic about soil’s ability to trap and hold on to carbon.
The number of beehives in Britain’s cities is growing rapidly, putting pressure on native bees ‘that really need our help’, say scientists and experienced beekeepers -- When it comes to beekeeping, what was once a niche hobby has flourished, especially in Britain’s cities.But there is growing concern from scientists and experienced beekeepers that the vast numbers of honeybees, combined with a lack of pollinator-friendly spaces, could be jeopardising the health and even survival of some of about 6,000 wild pollinators across the UK. Last year, Kew Gardens’ State of the World’s Plant and Fungi report warned: “Campaigns encouraging people to save bees have resulted in an unsustainable proliferation in urban beekeeping. This approach only saves one species of bee, the honeybee, with no regard for how honeybees interact with other, native species.” There are around 270 species of solitary bee and 25 species of bumblebee that really need our help Prof Jane Memmott, Bristol University“The general public know about honey; they know it comes from a bee. I think for most people, that’s it. That’s bees,” says Prof Jane Memmott at Bristol University. “Actually, there is the huge swathe of native biodiversity – around 270 species of solitary bee and 25 species of bumblebee – that really need our help.”Alarmed at the number of beehives in London more than doubling over a 10-year period, with an estimated 7,400 hives in Greater London, the LBKA said earlier this year: “The prevailing ‘save the bees’ narrative is often based on poor, misleading or absent information about bees and their needs. It can imply that keeping honeybees will help bees, which is not necessarily the case.”
Beware of World Economic Forum/Gates UN Food Systems Summit Trojan Horse - The Gates Foundation has been funding the Cornell Alliance for Science, ostensibly to “depolarize the GMO debates” by providing training in “advanced agricultural biotechnology communications”. Why traditional agricultural practices can’t transform African agriculture is only one instance of such sponsored propaganda masquerading as science.Well-resourced lobbyists are using the UNFSS to secure support and legitimacy for commercial agendas. With abundant means, their advocacy routinely invokes ‘public-private partnerships’ and ‘science, technology and innovation’ rhetoric.Forced to be more inclusive, Summit organisers are now using ‘solution clusters’ for advocacy. They then build broad ‘multi-stakeholder’ coalitions to advance purported solutions with the UNFSS mark of approval.With strong and growing evidence of agroecology’s progress and potential, propaganda against it has grown in recent years. Agroecology advocates are caricatured as ‘Luddite eco-imperialists’, ‘Keeping Africa on the Brink of Starvation’, and condemning farmers to ‘poverty, malnutrition and death’.A public relations consultant has accused agroecology advocates of being “the face of a ‘green’ neocolonialism” “idealizing peasant labour and retrograde subsistence farming” and denying “the Green Revolution’s successes”.Agroecology solutions are the main, if not only ones consistent with the UN’s overarching commitment to sustainable development. But the propagandists portray them as uninformed barriers to agricultural and social progress. Such deliberate deceptions block needed food system reforms. UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food Michael Fakhri alerted UNFSS Special Envoy Agnes Kalibata that agroecology is being dismissed as backward when it should be central to the Summit. Concurrently President of AGRA, with its particular commitment to needed food system reform, she is in an impossible position. Investing in the Summit is securing legitimacy and more resources from governments, the UN system, private philanthropy and others to further their commercial agendas. Meanwhile, many are working in good faith to make the most of the UN Summit.Nevertheless, it is setting a dangerous precedent for the UN system. It has rashly opened a back door, allowing corporate-led ‘multi-stakeholderism’ to undermine well-tested, inclusive ‘multi-stakeholder’ arrangements developed over decades under multilateral Member State oversight.
New study finds plastic accumulation in food may be underestimated --A new study has found plastic accumulation in foods may be underestimated. There is also concern these microplastics will carry potentially harmful bacteria such as E. coli,which are commonly found in coastal waters, up the food chain. Researchers from the University of Portsmouth tested a theory that microplastics covered in a layer of microbes, (called a biofilm) ) were more likely to be ingested by oysters than microplastics that were clean. Although the experiment was carried out on oysters under laboratory conditions, scientists believe similar results could be found in other edible marine species that also filter seawater for food.Up until now, studies to test the impacts of microplastics on marine life have typically used clean, virgin microplastics. However, this is not representative of what happens to microplastics in the marine environment. Microbes readily colonise microplastics that enter the ocean. In this study, published in Science of the Total Environment, scientists compared the uptake rates of clean microplastics versus microplastics with an E.colibiofilm coating. The results were worrying - oysters contained 10 times more microplastics when exposed to the biofilm coated beads. It is hypothesised that these coated MPs appeared to be more like food to the oysters, explaining their preferential ingestion over clean microplastics.The scientists say the implications for the food chain are concerning. The ingestion of microplastics is not only bad for the oysters, but it affects human health too. The plastic does not break down in the marine animal and is consumed when we eat it. “What we’ve discovered is that microplastic really is the Trojan Horse of the marine world. We discovered that clean plastics had little impact on the oysters’ respiration and feeding rates - but did have an impact when you fed them the microplastic hidden in the biofilm. The oysters took in more and it affected their health. It is unsure exactly how much this could affect the food chain, but the likelihood is because the creatures are ingesting more plastic and potentially, disease causing organisms, this will ultimately have a negative effect on human health. We know microplastics can be the mechanism by which bacteria are concentrated in coastal waters and this shows that they are more readily taken up by shellfish, and can be transferred to humans or other marine life.”
“Red tide” bacteria toxin devastates marine life along Florida’s Gulf Coast - Over the past several weeks, more than 600 tons of marine life have been found dead amidst an explosive growth of bacteria along the beaches of Florida’s Gulf Coast. The rapid spread of the harmful toxin, known as the “red tide bloom,” has been recklessly encouraged by human-induced nutrient pollution, mainly from the Tampa Bay area, which is placing the lives of wildlife and humans at significant risk. The massive flood of red tide bacteria that has killed large numbers of fish has been reported in numerous counties in the region, including Pinellas (St. Petersburg), Hillsborough (Tampa) and Pasco. Investigations of the deadly bacteria have found them to be the result of a higher-than-normal growth of algae along Florida’s coastline. On Friday, the National Weather Service issued an advisory warning for the Florida Gulf coast of the respiratory dangers residents face as a result of encountering harmful red tide bacteria. Governor Ron DeSantis rebuffed calls for an emergency declaration during a news conference on Thursday in St. Petersburg. . Most revealing during the conference was the governor’s tacit admission that an emergency declaration would create more problems for the state’s profitable vacation hotspots and that a wider-scale public health response would affect tourist revenue. The type of dangerous algae appearing around the state’s bay and inlets areas are known as Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB), with this year’s HAB comprising one of the largest the Gulf coast has seen since 2018. HAB growth has been led by a bacteria known as Karenia b revis, a marine phytoplankton that grow within the algal blooms. K. b revis are known for congregating together under conditions of three ingredients: low water salinity, warm waters, and nutrient-rich waters. Blooms such as red tide are significant threats to life and well-being, as they can lead to major respiratory issues in people. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, K. brevis produces toxins that cause “neurotoxic shellfish poisoning.” The bacteria can endanger people when they ingest shellfish compromised by toxins. This can lead to numbness, tingling, loss of coordination, vomiting and diarrhea. Perhaps most ominously, hospital records researchers discovered after analyzing hospital records that respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses increase during periods of red tides. In one study, hospital admissions for respiratory diagnoses rose 54 percent for coastal residents.
Toxic algae bloom on Florida's coast ravages marine life: "This is an absolute nightmare" - Beaches near Tampa have been littered with dead sea creatures, killed by a massive algae bloom that marine scientists say has been worsened by pollution. Tyler Capella, who runs a fishing charter business, took CBS News out on Tampa Bay to see what he calls his nightmare. Dead fish are everywhere, killed by a red tide that has turned Tampa Bay toxic. "This just goes forever," Capella said. "It's devastating. My worst fears have come true. I mean, this is an absolute nightmare." Capella is documenting the fish kill to pressure elected officials to help. He even covered himself in dead fish. "Dead fish as far as you could see in every direction, big ones, small ones," he said. "Looked like a bomb had gone off." Thousands of dead fish float in the Boca Ciega Bay located near the mouth of Madeira Beach on July 21, 2021, in Madeira Beach, Florida. Red tide, which is formed by a type of bacteria, has killed several tons of marine life in Florida so far this year. Red tides do naturally occur off the coast of Florida — but scientists say they're now happening more frequently and humans are making them worse. #160;
Blistering heat waves and drought in US West could lead to salmon extinction — Baby salmon are dying by the thousands in one California river, and an entire run of endangered salmon could be wiped out in another. Fishermen who make their living off adult salmon, once they enter the Pacific Ocean, are sounding the alarm as blistering heat waves and extended drought in the U.S. West raise water temperatures and imperil fish from Idaho to California.Hundreds of thousands of young salmon are dying in Northern California’s Klamath River as low water levels brought about by drought allow a parasite to thrive, devastating a Native American tribe whose diet and traditions are tied to the fish. And wildlife officials said the Sacramento River is facing a “near-complete loss” of young Chinook salmon due to abnormally warm water. A crash in one year’s class of young salmon can have lasting effects on the total population and shorten or stop the fishing season, a growing concern as climate change continues to make the West hotter and drier. That could be devastating to the commercial salmon fishing industry, which in California alone is worth $1.4 billion.The plummeting catch already has led to skyrocketing retail prices for salmon, hurting customers who say they can no longer afford the $35 per pound of fish, said Mike Hudson, who has spent the last 25 years catching and selling salmon at farmers markets in Berkeley.Hudson said he has considered retiring and selling his 40-foot (12-meter) boat because “it’s going to get worse from here.”Winter-run Chinook salmon are born in the Sacramento River, traverse hundreds of miles to the Pacific, where they normally spend three years before returning to their birthplace to mate and lay their eggs between April and August. Unlike the fall-run Chinook that survives almost entirely due to hatchery breeding programs, the winter run is still largely reared in the wild.Federal fisheries officials predicted in May that more than 80% of baby salmon could die because of warmer water in the Sacramento River. Now, state wildlife officials say that number could be higher amid a rapidly depleting pool of cool water in Lake Shasta. California’s largest reservoir is filled to only about 35% capacity, federal water managers said this week.“The pain we’re going to feel is a few years from now, when there will be no naturally spawned salmon out in the ocean,”
Heat wave hits Tokyo as Olympic organizers battle to keep Covid rates down --The Tokyo Olympics organizers, already struggling to contain thespread of Covid-19, are contending with another obstacle largely beyond their control: a heat wave.Day after day of 90-plus-degree heat and high humidity has forced organizers to reschedule rugby matches and mountain biking competitions and move some track and field events to early morning hours or dusk to avoid the roasting afternoon sun.Other events, like the marathon and race walking, have been moved completely out of Tokyo to the cooler city of Sapporo, capital of the mountainous northern Japanese island of Hokkaido and the site of the 1972 Winter Olympics.For the athletes competing in Tokyo, the organizers have erected cooling tents, hauled in water-mist fans and started providing ice cream to the army of volunteers helping run the Games.At the beach volleyball arena at Shiokaze Park in Tokyo, organizers have started hosing down the sand after competitors complained it was burning their feet. Russian archer Svetlana Gomboeva collapsed in the 91-degree heat Friday during a qualifying round, succumbing to the steamy heat that has been blanketing Tokyo for days and shows little sign of abating.“It turns out that she couldn’t stand a whole day out in the heat,” coach Stanislav Popov told reporters at the archery range while Gomboeva’s teammates placed bags of ice on her head to cool her down.Gomboeva was expected to recover, he said, adding that it was "the first time I remember this happening. In Vladivostok, where we were training before this, the weather was similar. But humidity played a role here."
Extreme Heat at Olympics Raises Health Concerns - The 2020 Summer Olympics kicked off in Tokyo on Friday and there are already signs the toughest part of the competition may just be the extreme heat and humidity in what is expected to be the hottest Olympics on record. Temperatures in Tokyo this time of year are usually in the high 80's, but a heat wave is pushing temperatures into the 90s. The heat index on Saturday made it feel like 100°F and humidity levels were above 80% on Sunday. Temperatures in July and August are 5.15°F/2.7°C warmer than they were last time Tokyo hosted the games in 1964, and on average, there are eight more days of 95-plus-degree weather. Athletes are feeling the heat already: ahead of the Opening Ceremony on Friday, Russian Archer Svetlana Gomboeva collapsed during a qualifying event due to the heat. The Tennis tournament, which began Saturday, was also affected by the heat, as Russian player Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova required a medical timeout after feeling dizzy due to the heat. Then, several athletes participating in the triathlon, which finished Monday morning, had to be helped off the track due to overheating. Extreme heat is now the deadliest weather event, and it is only getting worse as the planet continues warming. Despite this, currently, the International Olympic Committee doesn't take climate change into consideration when selecting host cities. Japan's proposal to host the 2020 games, for example, claimed "this period provides an ideal climate for athletes to perform their best" because of its "many days of mild and sunny weather."
2021 heat wave is now the deadliest weather-related event in Washington history - The official death toll from Washington state’s record-breaking heat wave jumped by 21 people Monday, as the Washington Department of Health revised its count to 112 people. The latest update makes the early-summer heat wave the state's deadliest weather-related disaster. Heat-related deaths were reported in 20 counties across the state, according to the Washington Department of Health, which continues to tally reports sent in from county coroners and hospitals. The extreme heat has claimed the largest number of victims in the state’s two biggest counties: 28 in King County and 21 in Pierce County. On Monday, the Pierce County Medical Examiner’s Office reported 23 confirmed heat-related deaths. State health officials said their tally lags behind those of local health departments. The official statewide toll—which is expected to keep rising—now nearly equals that of Oregon, where at least 116 people are known to have died from the heat. To the north, British Columbia estimated heat-related deaths by comparing all deaths reported on each day of the heat wave to the same dates in previous years. There, the B.C. Coroner’s office estimated some 580 “excess deaths” during the province’s week of previously unthinkable temperatures. In addition, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Friday that 3,500 people in four Northwest states wound up in emergency rooms with heat-related ailments in May and June, with nearly 2,800 heading to the ER June 25-30, when most of Oregon and Washington were under extreme heat warnings. On June 28, at least 1,038 people headed to the ER for heat-related illness in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska. On that date one year earlier, nine people did. Monday's update from the Washington Department of Health makes the heat wave Washington's deadliest weather-related disaster. That record was previously held by a 1910 avalanche near Stevens Pass that killed 96 people in two trains. No extreme heat, cold, storm, or flood on record in Washington has come close to killing so many people.
As Scientists Have Long Predicted, Warming Is Making Heatwaves More Deadly -- In its 2001 Third Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) foresaw that global warming would lead to increasingly deadly heatwaves. “More hot days and heatwaves are very likely over nearly all land areas,” the world’s top climate scientists warned. “These increases are projected to be largest mainly in areas where soil moisture decreases occur.” “The greatest increases in thermal stress are forecast for mid- to high-latitude (temperate) cities, especially in populations with non-adapted architecture and limited air conditioning,” they wrote at the time. “A number of U.S. cities would experience, on average, several hundred extra deaths each summer.”Sound prescient? And familiar? All too much so.Twenty years later, it seems as though these climate scientists were gazing into a crystal ball rather than computer monitors. At the end of June 2021, the normally temperate Pacific Northwest experienced a record-shattering heatwave. The village of Lytton, in British Columbia, set a new all-time Canadian temperature record of 49.6 degrees Celsius (121.3 degrees Fahrenheit) and was largely destroyed by a wildfire soon thereafter. Quillayute in the northwest corner of Washington, shattered its previous high temperature record by a full 11°F.At least 800 deaths have so far been attributed to the extreme heat, and experts say they expect the final mortality tally to be considerably higher. Because of the region’s historically temperate weather, many homes lack air conditioning; residents were enveloped by temperatures well in excess of 100°F. University of British Columbia marine biologist Christopher Harley estimates that the heatwave also caused over a billion marine wildlife deaths, as shells of dead mussels and clams coated rocks along the Pacific seashore. Contributing to the World Weather Attribution project, 27 scientists worked around the clock for a week immediately after this extreme event to determine the role played by climate change. The team used published peer-reviewed methods, comparing numerous model simulations of two scenarios: the “world as it was” when the event occurred, and a counterfactual “world that might have been” had humans not altered Earth’s climate by burning fossil fuels over the past 150 years. The results are striking. The authors concluded that a heat event so extreme was “virtually impossible without human-caused climate change.” While it’s difficult to quantify the rarity of such unprecedented weather, their best estimate was that it was a 1-in-1,000-year event. Without human-caused climate change, such an extreme event would be at least 150 times rarer, and the heatwave was about 3.6°F hotter than it would have been naturally.
Huge 'heat dome' to bring punishing temperatures to the US. Again. -The most extensive heat wave of a scorching summer is set to descend upon much of America this week, further roasting areas already gripped by severe drought, plunging reservoirs and wildfires.A massive “heat dome” of excessive heat will settle across the heart of the contiguous United States from Monday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast, bringing elevated temperatures to the Great Plains, the Great Lakes, the northern reaches of the Rocky Mountains, the Pacific Northwest, and California.Places used to more mild summers are set for punishing heat, with temperatures expected to breach 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37 degrees Celsius) in the Dakotas and Montana, a state in which the city of Billings has already experienced 12 days above 95 degrees F (35 degrees C) this month. Areas of states including Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma may get “sweltering” temperatures reaching 110 degrees F (43 degrees C), NOAA said, while cities such as Des Moines, Minneapolis, and Chicago will get significantly above-average heat.The latest, but most expansive, in a parade of heat waves to sweep the U.S. is likely to bring thunderstorms and lightning to some areas, as well as worsen drought conditions ranked as “severe” or “exceptional” that now cover two-thirds of the U.S. West.Climate scientists have said the barrage of heat waves over the past month, which have parched farms, caused roads to buckle and resulted in the obliteration of long-standing temperature records, are being fueled by predicted human-caused climate change – but admit to being surprised at the ferocity of the onslaught.“It’s been a severe and dangerous summer, some of the heat waves have been devastatingly hot,” said Michael Wehner, a senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. “We certainly expected these type of temperatures as global warming continues, but I don’t think anyone anticipated they would be so hot right now. I don’t think we could’ve expected so many heat waves in the same general region in one summer.”The most extraordinary of the recent heat waves occurred in the Pacific Northwest in June where the normally mild region was bathed in heat that broke temperature records by more than 10 degrees F (5.5 degrees C). The heat, which caused hundreds of people to die in cities including Seattle and Portland, where it reached 116 degrees F (46 degrees C), has caused several scientists to question their previous estimates of how the climate crisis will reshape heat wave severity. “With the Pacific Northwest heat wave you’d conclude the event would be almost impossible without climate change, but in a straightforward statistical analysis from before this summer you’d also include it would be impossible with climate change, too. That is problematic, because the event happened.”
Record-breaking heatwave hits Hokkaido, Japan - An unprecedented heatwave is sweeping over Hokkaido, Japan, with numerous all-time records falling almost every day. Very high temperatures are expected to continue over the next 14 days.One of the most notable records on July 27 was registered in Asahikawa, holder of the coldest temperature in Japanese history.The city registered 36.2 °C (97.1 °F) on July 27, breaking the previous record of 36 °C (96.8 °F) set on August 7, 1989. Other notable records include Teshio in the Rumoi region which registered 33.8 °C (92.8 °F), breaking the previous record of 32.5 °C (90.5 °F) set on August 2, 1982; Ishikari Numata in Hokkaido Sorachi which registered 36.5 °C (97.7 °F), breaking the previous record of 35.7 °C (96.2 °F) set on August 7, 1989; and Kimobetsu in Shiribeshi region which registered 34.1 °C (93.3 °F), breaking the previous record of 33.4 °C (92.1 °F) set on August 10, 1994.The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued an early warning for very high temperature from August 1 to 9, affecting almost the entire country.
Record-Breaking Heat Has Led To Widespread Power Outages In The Middle East : NPR (podcast & transcript) Throughout the Middle East, extreme heat is leading to increased demand for energy, which is leading to widespread power and water outages affecting millions. Protesters are demanding these services. High heat is visibly affecting athletes at the Tokyo Olympics. Meanwhile, the central U.S. is baking in a heat dome. But in parts of Iraq and Iran, high temperatures reached more than 120 degrees Fahrenheit today. And throughout the Middle East, extreme heat has spiked demand for energy, which means widespread power outages affecting millions. Protesters are demanding better access to utilities. And joining us now to talk more about all of this is Yesar Al-Maleki. He's an energy scholar at the Middle East Institute.
Frigid polar air brings very rare snowfall, icy rains to southern Brazil - A fierce cold snap brought rare snow, icy rain, and strong winds to parts of southern Brazil on July 29 and 30, 2021. The event comes after several waves of destructive frost since mid-June. According to weather specialists at Somar Meteorologia, at least 40 cities in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul saw ice while 30 got snow, including Pelotas, São Francisco de Paula, Gramado, Carlos Barbosa, Bagé, Herval, Piratini, Caxias do Sul, Marau, and Farroupilha.Meteorologists say the strange phenomenon in Brazil is happening all the more often, especially in areas that are between 900 and 1 900 meters (2 900 and 6 200 feet) above sea level.After hitting Rio Grande do Sul, polar air continued moving upwards toward the Sao Paolo metropolis and Minas Gerais -- states known for their vast agricultural fields.After several waves of destructive frost since mid-June, farmers fear that what's left of essential export crops will suffer yet more damage.According to Marco Antonio dos Santos from weather consultancy firm Rural Clima, international prices for coffee and sugar have already soared due to unusually cold weather in Brazil.The last time a blizzard hit Brazil was back in 1957 when 1.3 m (4.3 feet) of snow fell in the state of Santa Catarina.
How do we manage a hotter reality and deadly heatwaves? -The heatwave that struck the Pacific Northwest and Canada at the end of June 2021 brought temperatures never experienced in the region, breaking records by up to 11 degrees Fahrenheit. The heatwave, virtually impossible without human-caused climate change, is part of a pattern of more frequent, intense and long-lasting heatwaves that comes with our changing climate.While the event was shocking, in many ways it should not have been a surprise. The heatwave was typical of responses and impacts to heatwaves observed in other well-resourced countries — but still poorly prepared for our new reality. Forecasts days before the event warned of record-shattering temperatures. City departments and outreach organizations began ad hoc discussions of what could be done in regions that have no heat action plans and low air conditioning prevalence. Actions taken, particularly establishing cooling centers, undoubtedly saved some lives. But there were more than 2,000 heat-related emergency department visits in Washington alone and health care services were overwhelmed. Far worse, the death toll stands at over 1,000, of which more than 800 occurred in British Columbia, where the heat was most intense and insistent; the overall toll is certain to rise as deaths from heart attacks, respiratory disease and other causes are connected to the extreme heat. This was a massive disease outbreak, and nearly all these deaths could have been prevented. Experience in hundreds of cities worldwide demonstrates that preparedness — in the form of heat early warning systems and action plans — saves lives. For example, mortality during the 2006 heatwave in France was markedly lower than expected based on the devastating 2003 heatwaves — the difference was the result of a national heatwave plan and associated preventive measures.. Meteorological forecasts generally give adequate warning of extreme heat, and we know from epidemiological studies who is at risk and at what temperatures. Early warning and response plans move beyond decisions on the temperature threshold at which warnings are issued, to a comprehensive all-of-society approach that considers and bolsters local capacities.
Lake Powell Water Levels Fall to Lowest on Record --Lake Powell fell to just 33% capacity Monday, marking the lowest level on record, in large part due to a climate-change driven drought in the region.The reservoir, which is the country's second largest, is fed by the Colorado River and provides water for more than 40 million people across the region, including farmers, ranchers and native communities. Reduced snowpack, dry winters, and extreme heat are all worsening the region's megadrought and contributing to the reservoir's decline.Lake Mead, another critical reservoir along the Colorado River, also reached historic lows last month. The Colorado River's flow has decreased 20% over the past century, half of which was due to climate change, and it could decrease by as much as 30% come mid-century. The low levels at both Lake Mead and Lake Powell are threatening the ability of the Glen Canyon Dam, a hydroelectric power plant, to supply power to several Western states.Federal officials are expected to declare a water shortage on the Colorado River for the first time next month, triggering cutbacks next year in Arizona and Nevada. "Over time, cities are going to need to conserve more and more water, and that doesn't get any easier with climate change," John Fleck, the director of the Water Resources Program at the University of New Mexico, told CNN.
Lake Powell hits lowest water level on record - Plagued by climate change-fueled drought and increasing demand for water, Lake Powell, the second largest reservoir in the United States, has fallen to its lowest level on record since it was first filled more than 50 years ago.As of Sunday, Lake Powell had fallen to roughly 3,554 feet in elevation — just 33% of capacity — according to the US Bureau of Reclamation, below the previous all-time low set in 2005. Lake Powell and nearby Lake Mead, the nation's largest reservoir, have drained at an alarming rate this year. The two reservoirs fed by the Colorado River watershed provide a critical supply of drinking water and irrigation for many across the region, including rural farms, ranches and native communities. The significance of the dwindling supply in both reservoirs cannot be overstated. Water flowing down the Colorado River fills the two reservoirs, which are part of a river system that supplies over 40 million people living across seven Western states and Mexico.A study by US Geological Survey scientists published in 2020 found that on average, the Colorado River's flow has declined by about 20% over the last century, and over half of that decline can be attributed to warming temperatures across the basin.The dwindling reservoir levels come as more than 95% of the Western US is experiencing drought conditions, the largest area since the creation of the US Drought Monitor. More than 28% of the region is experiencing exceptional drought, the most severe level of dryness.If Lake Powell is projected to drop below 3,525 feet, the Bureau of Reclamation can release more water to Lake Powell from upstream reservoirs as part of the 2019 Colorado River Drought-Contingency Plan. Emergency releases from such upstream reservoirs, particularly the Blue Mesa Reservoir in southwest Colorado, are set to begin in August.Much like Lake Mead and Hoover Dam, Lake Powell's plunging water level threatens Glen Canyon Dam's capacity to produce hydropower for many states including Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska.And if the next major study in August from the Bureau of Reclamation projects an even worse water level decline in both Lake Powell and Lake Mead, it would trigger the first-ever shortage declaration on the Colorado River, meaning many communities would begin to see their water supply significantly slashed next year.
Series of deadly crashes after dust storm hits Utah -At least 8 people have been killed and several others critically injured in a series of car crashes on Interstate-15 near Kanosh, Millard County, Utah on Sunday, July 25, 2021. According to the Utah Department of Public Service (DPS), 22 vehicles were involved in the crashes after high winds caused a sand or dust storm and impaired visibility on the roadway around 16:30 LT. The crash happened on Interstate 15 near milepost 152, between the Meadow and Kanosh exits. Southbound traffic in the area was shut down until early Monday morning. "Some minor crashes in the midst of the storm blocked the roadway," DPS said in a statement. "In the process of coming to a stop, a semi appears to have rear-ended a pickup. "The most significant crashes happened behind the semi with two vehicles becoming wedged underneath the back of the trailer. They appear to have been hit from behind by another pickup. Another vehicle appears to have sideswiped the semitrailer, as well." "We have vehicles all over. Several vehicles tried to swerve off the roadway. We have vehicles that are flipped up on their sides," Utah Highway Patrol Sgt. Cameron Rhoden said. "One of the vehicles that was pulling a trailer, the trailer has pretty much completely been destroyed and is on the freeway." DPS said Monday ten people were transported to area hospitals, at least 3 in critical condition. All others who were transported had non life-threatening injuries. Five of the eight people killed in the crash were traveling in one vehicle. Two others who were killed were traveling together in another vehicle. One fatality was from a third vehicle. Four of the fatal victims were adults and four were children under the age of 15.
Watch: "Wall Of Dust" Blankets Phoenix Amid Megadrought Conditions - On Tuesday evening, massive walls of dust rolled through the Phoenix Metropolitan Area, promoting the Arizona Department of Transportation to warn drivers to stay off roads as visibility was heavily impacted. Just before 7:30 pm local time, the National Weather Service in Phoenix said the dust cloud was blowing into the Phoenix area and would impair visibility. Local news Fox 10 captured the massive dust storm rolling through the metro area. A time-lapse of the Phoenix dust storm shows visibility was impacted. Here's another view of the "wall of dust." The latest data from the US Drought Monitor shows much of Arizona is in some form of a drought. As for the drought situation in the western half of the country, it's severe and alarming, and lands are transforming into fallow wastelands.
California's largest wildfire forces over 8,000 evacuations as residents scramble to protect property – California's largest wildfire is growing this morning after destroying more than a dozen homes over the weekend. After nearly two weeks, the Dixie Fire north of Sacramento is still just 21% contained. It's one of more than 80 fires burning in 11 Western states — forcing nearly 8,400 evacuations. The fury of the Dixie Fire is not only destroying homes in the community of Indian Falls. While threatening thousands more in its path, it's also creating smoke columns that could spark lightning storms, which could ignite even more fires."As the smoke clears, the sun warms the ground, we're going to see those air masses start moving very quickly," said Mitch Matlow, a public information officer assigned to the Dixie Fire. "What does that mean for the firefighters on the ground? Erratic, windy fire behavior." Firefighters were forced to saw through a fallen tree that blocked a roadway and people living near the fire are doing what they can to protect their property. "Get the fuels away from your house," "Get the woods stacked that's too close to the deck, away from the deck. Things like that." To the southeast, the lightning-sparked Tamarack Fire isn't expected to be fully contained until the end of next month. Meanwhile, near the California border, the Bootleg Fire is now the third-largest ever recorded in Oregon, destroying nearly 70 homes. "I came back thinking that I still had something to come home to," Raul Flores, a Sycan Estates resident, said. "And when I got here, I was actually kind of gut shot. Nothing left." The Dixie Fire covered enough territory over the weekend to merge with another smaller fire. Right now, some 10,000 homes are threatened. Officials say this is the 15th largest fire in California history and it's only July.
CA wildfires: Dixie Fire to 200K acres; latest on Tamarack | The Sacramento Bee -California’s largest wildfire of 2021, the Dixie Fire, continues to threaten thousands of homes in Butte, Plumas and Tehama counties. Nearly 5,500 personnel are now battling blaze, which ignited July 13 above the Cresta Dam in Feather River Canyon, Cal Fire’s Butte unit said in a Monday morning incident report. The Dixie Fire has burned 197,487 acres — more than 300 square miles — and destroyed close to two dozen structures. The state fire agency reported containment at 22% as of Monday morning, up one percentage point from the prior evening. Nearly 11,000 structures are threatened. Fire authorities have split the Dixie Fire incident into an east zone and a west zone. Cal Fire reported the east zone, which merged with the Fly Fire, underwent extreme fire behavior Saturday, crossing Highways 70 and 89, and that firefighters “engaged immediately in structure protection” in communities along those two highways. Fire personnel also succeeded in preventing damage to “communications infrastructure” atop Mount Hough. Officials reported Monday morning that activity slowed some on Sunday, after thick smoke “shaded” the fire, decreasing temperatures. The west zone of the fire also saw moderate activity, but Cal Fire says it is anticipating a chance of isolated thunderstorms later in the week. Cal Fire says weather conditions in the forecast this week are expected to lead to “large pyrocumulus clouds” — fire clouds — in both zones of the fire, “increasing the potential for spot fires and rapid fire growth.” Numerous mandatory evacuation orders remain in place, including the communities of Meadow Valley, Bucks Lake, Prattville, Big Meadows and Lake Almanor West in Plumas County; Butte Meadows, Jonesville, Philbrook and High Lakes in Butte County; and the area of Colby Creek in Tehama County. Detailed information on evacuation zones spanned seven pages of Cal Fire’s incident report. Many roads are closed, including stretches of Highways 36, 70 and 89. The Dixie Fire is now the 15th largest wildfire incident in state history, according to Cal Fire archive records. Nine of the 15 have come in the last four years.
'Going to be a long haul': Massive Dixie Fire merges with Fly Fire, tears through small town as California burns - More homes burned and 10,000 others remained threatened Monday as a fast-growingnorthern California wildfire merged with another blaze and swept through the Plumas County community of Indian Falls."The Dixie Fire experienced significant growth and very challenging fire conditions," fire managers said in an incident report late Sunday. The blaze had already leveled at least 16 houses and other structures, but a new damage estimate wasn’t immediately available because flames were still raging in the mountain area. Firefighters carrying hand tools were forced to hike through rugged terrain where engines can’t go, said Rick Carhart, spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.The fire, which started burning less than two weeks ago, has consumed 308 square miles of forest, brush and homes in Plumas and Butte counties, about two hours northeast of Sacramento. It was 22% contained as of late Monday afternoon. More than 5,000 firefighters are battling the combined Dixie and Fly Fires.“It has been burning in extremely steep canyons, some places where it is almost impossible for human beings to set foot on the ground,” Carhart said. “It’s going to be a long haul.” Strike teams with engines were in Indian Falls and nearby Paxton, communities totaling just a few dozen residents, to save what homes they could as the fire intensified, Carhart said. Firefighters prepared fire lines southwest of the town of Taylorsville to protect the community of about 200 as the flames advanced.Smoke overwhelmed much of the area – but that was actually good news, Dixie Fire Behavior Analyst Dennis Burns said at a briefing. "The smoke is like putting a lid on a pot," Burns said. "It really dampens the fire behavior. It doesn't allow the sun to preheat those fuels, and the thick smoke pushes the wind around to the sides (of the fire)." The fire was among 85 large fires burning across 13 states, devouring more than 2,300 square miles of mostly forest and brush, the National Interagency Fire Center said.Three people died Monday as their twin-engine jet crashed near a golf course in the Lake Tahoe area, reported the San Francisco Chronicle. The crash ignited a wildfire that was quickly contained before it threatened the town of Truckee, California, authorities said.The USA's largest fire, the Bootleg Fire in Oregon, had burned about 640 square miles in the Fremont-Winema National Forest and was 53% contained as of Monday afternoon.The fire has destroyed more than 70 homes, and thousands more were threatened."Seasonal drying coupled with drought conditions have made all fuels available for active burning conditions," fire managers said in an update late Saturday.
The largest fire in the US continues to defy crews' efforts to tame it. And the weather isn't helping – CNN -Despite the efforts of firefighters battling the Bootleg Fire, the raging flames of the nation's largest wildfire continued to spread in southern Oregon as officials declared weather warnings in the area.The fire has scorched 408,930 acres as of Sunday, an expansion of more than 6,000 acres since Friday. The fire is currently 46% contained. "This fire is resistant to stopping at dozer lines," said Jim Hampton, a fire behavior analyst. "With the critically dry weather and fuels we are experiencing, firefighters are having to constantly re-evaluate their control lines and look for contingency options," he noted in a statement posted onInciWeb, the clearinghouse for wildfire information in the US.Dry and unstable conditions prompted a Red Flag Warning at the fire's site on Saturday, according to InciWeb. The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) said the warning is issued when there is "severe fire weather like strong sustained winds, gusts and low humidity, combined with a high fire danger rating."Additionally, smoke and haze from other nearby fires lingered Sunday as temperatures remained warmer. "The smoke is expected to keep temperatures down a couple degrees ... which may help overall fire activity. Unfortunately, this smoke may impede air operations on the fire," according to InciWeb. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown signed legislation this past week that would arm the state with tools and resources to make communities "more adaptive" to wildfires.The legislation includes resources for adequate firefighting tools and prescriptive and mitigation efforts. Brown also recently signed the 100% clean energy bill, which she described as "the most aggressive clean energy bill in the country." Meanwhile, extreme fire behavior from the Bootleg Fire helped create a tornado last weekend, according to a post on the Bootleg Fire Info Facebook page Saturday.The July 18 tornado was confirmed with the Medford National Weather Service Forecast Office, the post said.Crews are battling 86 large wildfires throughout the US, with six new large fires reported Saturday, the NIFC said.More than 22,000 firefighters and support personnel have been deployed to tackle the fires, which have collectively burned nearly 1.5 million acres, the agency said. Most of the fires are spread across Western states, where extreme drought conditions have been reported.Idaho is the state with the biggest number of large fires with 23. However, Oregon has the most acres burned with 541,336 from its seven large fires.
Wildfires continue to grow across western North America as another heat wave builds - Wildfires in the western US, Alaska and British Columbia continue to spread at a record pace while a third massive heat wave of the summer is building in the US. The National Interagency Fire Center reports that in the US there are currently 79 large fires burning in 12 states that have so far destroyed over 1.5 million acres. There are currently 20 large wildfires in Idaho, 19 in Montana, 10 in Washington, six in California, six in Alaska, six in Oregon, four in Wyoming, two in Utah, two in Arizona, two in South Dakota, one in Colorado and one in Nevada. Three new large fires have emerged in Idaho and South Dakota. The widespread fires continue as another heat wave settles in across much of the contiguous US for the week. As of Tuesday, at least 17 states have issued heat warnings or advisories. This follows the record shattering heat wave that occurred in the Pacific Northwest earlier in the summer, and the blistering heat wave that occurred a few weeks ago in the southwest. This latest wave is not expected to lead to as many shattered records as the previous two, but it will at times span from the west to the east coast. Acute elevated heat is expected in Montana and Wyoming. Temperatures are expected to reach as high as 110 degrees Fahrenheit in eastern Montana, but this could be tempered by thick wildfire smoke, which could keep temperatures slightly cooler. The largest of the fires remains the Bootleg fire in southern Oregon near Klamath Falls. It is currently listed to have burned over 410,000 acres and is 53 percent contained as of Tuesday morning. The Bootleg fire began from a lightning strike on July 6. More than 2,000 firefighters are assigned to the fire, including personnel from over 90 fire departments across the country, and crews of the Oregon National Guard. In California, the Dixie fire has now burned 200,000 acres as it continues to spread and is at 22 percent containment. The Dixie fire is located 15 miles northeast of the town of Paradise, which was almost completely destroyed in the deadly 2018 Camp Fire which caused at least 85 civilian fatalities. In British Columbia, Canada, there are currently 226 wildfires burning, 38 of these are considered fires of note, meaning that the fires are highly visible or pose a threat to persons or property. Approximately 1.05 million acres have burned so far this season in the western Canadian province. On Saturday, 101 firefighters from Mexico arrived to help fight the raging fires. At that time there were 3,320 total firefighters engaged in combating the fires in British Columbia.
Air quality action days declared in NH because of wildfire smoke - Smoke from western wildfires has led to the declaration of air quality action days Monday and Tuesday in New Hampshire. The declaration means that fine particle air pollution could be unhealthy for sensitive individuals, including children, older adults and anyone with lung disease. Anyone spending time outdoors might experience mild health effects and should limit strenuous or prolonged outdoor activities, officials said. Symptoms can include chest pain, palpitations, shortness of breath and difficulty breathing. The smoke is coming from extensive wildfires in western Canada and the western United States. Winds are transporting the smoke across the country, but air quality is expected to improve in New Hampshire on Wednesday, when wind patterns change. "These particles are small enough that they inhale deeply into the lungs and basically they get trapped there creating some health effects," said Jeff Underhill from the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services. The smoke can also make for a hazy appearance in the sky and unusually red or orange sunrises and sunsets. "It's a lot like tobacco, it's got some additional materials in there that are organic and can be toxic and carcinogenic," Underhill said. The thickness of the smoke prompted calls to fire departments out of concern. Officials with DES said until those wild fires are under control, we could see more smoky days this summer.
Southern Europe battles wildfires as north cleans up after floods (Reuters) - Wildfires burned in regions across southern Europe on Monday, fuelled by hot weather and strong winds, as some northern countries cleaned up after a weekend of torrential rain and flooding. In Greece, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said firefighters had battled around 50 fires during the past 24 hours and it was likely there would be more with meteorologists warning that a further heatwave was in prospect. "I want to emphasize that August remains a difficult month," he said. "That is why it is important for all of us, all state services, to be on absolute alert until the firefighting period is formally over." Fire service officials said negligence on farms and construction sites had been behind several incidents, many of which were in the southern Peloponnese region. No casualties were reported. Conditions in southern Europe were in sharp contrast to the torrential rainstorms that lashed northern countries from Austria to Britain following the catastrophic flooding in Germany and neighbouring countries last week. On the Italian island of Sardinia, firefighting planes from France and Greece reinforced local aircraft battling blazes across the island where more than 4,000 hectares of forest were burnt and more than 350 people evacuated. In Sicily, fires broke out near the western town of Erice. In Spain, the northeastern region of Catalonia saw more than 1,500 hectares destroyed near Santa Coloma de Queralt, forcing dozens to be evacuated, although the blazes were 90% stabilized on Monday, firefighters and authorities said. In Lietor, in the central east region of Castilla-La Mancha, more than 2,500 hectares burned during the weekend before being brought under control, authorities said. So far this year, wildfires have burned across 35,000 hectares in Spain, still some way off the 138,000 hectares burned in 2012, the worst year of the past decade.
Thousands of animals perish, 1 500 people evacuate as massive wildfires ravage Sardinia, Italy-- - 1 500 people have been forced to evacuate parts of south-western Sardinia, Italy after devastating wildfires fueled by strong and hot winds rapidly spread through parts of the island over the weekend, July 24 and 25, 2021. Regional governor described the wildfires as unprecedented in Sardinia's history. According to the Italian Ministry of Interior, rescue operations continue following the forest fires that have been affecting the province of Oristano for some days, in the territories of Santu Lussurgiu, Cuglieri, Tresnuraghes, Frossio, Sennariolo, Usellus, Porto Albe, Scano di Montiferro and Cabras. As of Monday, July 26, the fires have consumed more than 20 000 ha (50 000 acres) of forest and forced more than 1 500 people to evacuate. While there has been no loss to human life, thousands of animals, including sheep, goats, pigs, and cows have perished in flames. "It is an unprecedented reality in Sardinia’s history," regional governor Christian Salinas said. "So far, 20 000 hectares of forest that represent centuries of the environmental history of our island have gone up in ashes." "The damage is immeasurable," Solinas told Ansa. "It has left whole communities on their knees, along with their economic and social fabric." "It has inflicted a fatal wound on this precious environmental heritage. Whole forests were completely destroyed. Firms and homes devastated. An enormous number of livestock animals were killed in the fire." A thousand-year-old olive tree that was the symbol of the hilltop village of Cuglieri was also destroyed by the fire./p>
Wildfires destroy entire villages, death toll rises to 4, Turkey (videos) Wildfires that started in southern Turkey on Wednesday and Thursday, July 28 and 29, 2021, have devastated entire villages, claimed at least 4 lives, and forced the evacuation of hotels and dozens of villages.More than 70 wildfires broke out on Turkey's Aegean and the Mediterranean coasts and some inland areas over the past week, with most of them under control as of Saturday, July 31.14 of them are still burning today, mostly in the Mediterranean resort region of Antalya and the Aegean resort province of Mugla, Reuters reports.The wildfire that started in Antalya's Manavgat on Wednesday, July 28 left a trail of destruction in its path, burning down houses, especially in villages. Some 2 300 buildings were affected, with 126 of them destroyed.Another 465 buildings were affected in Silifke, Aydıncık, and Gülnar districts of Mersin province. 30 buildings were damaged and 4 villages were evacuated in Osmaniye. No buildings were affected by the fire in Marmaris, except a hotel that sustained partial damage from the fire, Murat Kurum, Minister of Environment and Urban Planning said.The death toll rose to 4 on Thursday, with 3 fatalities reported in Manavgat, 75 km (45 miles) E of Antalya.The fourth victim was found in the Marmaris area of Mugla, 290 km (180 miles) W of Manavgat. These fires are still active but residential areas are now out of risk.More than 180 people were injured.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that intelligence units and the Interior Ministry are looking into the causes of the fires."This is not something we will ignore. After all, these are fires that, although broke out in different places, happened almost at the same time, from Manavgat to Marmaris and Bodrum," he said.Erdoğan said 45 helicopters were dispatched to the fire-hit areas and the number of airplanes intervening in the blazes rose to six on Friday, The Daily Sabah reported. Erdoğan added they were also receiving planes from Russia and Ukraine, and Azerbaijan would also send an amphibious plane, which is more effective in handling forest fires than regular planes."We have 1 080 fire trucks and 280 water tankers in affected areas, along with 2 270 'first response vehicles' and 660 bulldozers and other heavy equipment. 10 550 people, from firefighters to forest preservation officers are working on the ground. We have positive progress (in terms of extinguishing the fires)," he said
More than 200 people killed after heavy rains hit Maharashtra, India (videos) Heavy rains and resulting floods and landslides affecting the Indian state of Maharashtra since July 21 have claimed at least 207 lives and left 11 people missing, the state government said Tuesday, July 27, 2021. The worst-hit district is Raigad, with 95 fatalities and 11 people missing. 45 people were killed in Satara, 35 in Ratnagiri, 12 in Thane, 7 in Kolhapur, 4 in suburban Mumbai, 3 in Pune, and 2 each in Sindhudurg, Wardha, and Akola districts. The death toll in the state since June 1 has now reached 294. An official from the disaster management department, said locals are still struggling to expedite the rescue operations because of the difficult terrain and rains. Heavy rains over the Sahyadri mountains have increased water levels of rivers flowing through the districts of Satara, Sangli, and Kolhapur, forcing more people to evacuate. As of July 27, a total of 375 178 people have been evacuated, of which 206 619 from Sangli alone. Over the past 7 days, the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) rescued 3 804 people. Their biggest operations were in Raigad District, where a landslide buried 30 houses (killing 95 people and leaving 11 missing).From July 1 to 22, Ratnagiri recorded 1 781 mm (77.1 inches) of rain, which is now its highest July rainfall in 40 years. Its monthly rainfall average in July is 972.5 mm (38.2 inches).The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Satara District received 1 074.8 mm (42.3 inches) of rain in 48 hours to July 23 -- 480.4 mm (18.9 inches) to July 22 and 594.4 mm (23.4 inches) to July 23.While Sangli district did not experience heavy rainfall, Sangli town and several villages were flooding after heavy discharge of water from a dam on the Koyna river in Satara.
Extreme rainfall in Henan claimed 71 lives, affected 1.3 million people and damaged 972 000 ha (2.4 million acres) of crops, China --Extremely heavy rains affecting China's Henan province over the past 10 days caused massive damage and claimed the lives of 71 people, as of Tuesday, July 27, 2021. The storm dropped a year's worth of rain over the province's capital Zhengzhou in just 3 days and record-breaking 201.9 mm (7.9 inches) in just 1 hour on July 20.12.9 million people in 150 counties and 1 558 towns were affected, with the hardest-hit areas Zhengzhou, Xinyang, Xinxiang, Zhumadian, Zhoukou, Anyang, Shangqiu, Kaifeng, Puyang, and Hebi. Of those, 1.31 million have been evacuated.24 474 houses have been destroyed or severely damaged.In addition, 972 000 hectares (2.4 million acres) of crops in the state have been damaged or destroyed.Massive flooding hit Zhengzhou on July 20, after record-high hourly precipitation of 201.9 mm (7.9 inches) between 16:00 and 17:00 LT (08:00 - 09:00 UTC).The city received average precipitation of 457.5 mm (18 inches) within 24 hours to 17:00 LT on July 20, making it the highest daily rainfall since the weather records in the city began. From Saturday, July 17 to Tuesday, July 20, the capital city recorded 617.1 mm (24.2 inches) of rain, nearly its annual average of 640.8 mm (25.5 inches). This is a level seen only 'once in a thousand years,' according to local meteorologists.Zhengzhou's average monthly rainfall for July is 193 mm (7.6 inches). July is also its wettest month, followed by August with 147 mm (5.8 inches) and September with 87 mm (3.4 inches).
Typhoon "In-Fa" makes landfall in Zhejiang, forces 1.5 million people to evacuate, China - Typhoon "In-Fa" made landfall in the Putuo District of the city of Zhoushan, China's eastern province of Zhejiang at 04:30 UTC on July 25, 2021. At the time of landfall, In-Fa had a maximum wind speed of 137 km/h (85 mph), according to China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Schools, markets, and businesses were closed ahead of landfall and more than 1.5 million people evacuated. Strong winds produced by In-Fa were also felt in Shanghai where about 360 000 people were evacuated and all inbound and outbound flights canceled for its two international airports. Dozens of scheduled trains were canceled, while activity at the two of the world's largest ports -- Shanghai and Ningbo, were temporarily shut down. In-Fa weakened after landfall, but CMA warned it will continue to hover over a 'wide expanse of eastern China for days,' bringing heavy rainfall, possibly to areas in Henan still recovering from last week's massive flooding in which at least 63 people died. Direct economic losses in Henan are estimated at US$2.14 billion (13.9 billion yuan). "It's necessary to be highly vigilant and prevent disasters that may be caused by extreme rainfall, CMA said. As of 06:00 UTC on July 26, Severe Tropical Storm "In-fa" was located about 65 km (40 miles) west-southwest of Shanghai, China. Its maximum 10-minute sustained winds were 95 km/h (60 mph) with gusts up to 130 km/h (80 mph), while maximum 1-minute sustained winds were 65 km/h (40 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure was 985 hPa, and the system is moving slowly toward the NNW.
Tropical Storm Nepartak is swirling toward Japan, skirting Olympics - Typhoon season is picking up in the Pacific, and right on schedule Japan is sandwiched between a pair of tropical storms. Tropical Storm In-fa is dumping copious rainfall in China and inducing significant flooding near Shanghai, lashing a country that days earlier dealt with deadly and historic flooding. A tropical storm named Nepartak, meanwhile, is sweeping northwest toward northern Japan.Neither storm is a typhoon, although In-fa spent several days as a typhoon north of Taiwan last week. The pair of storms are already helping to drag deep tropical moisture northward, spelling rounds of heavy afternoon downpours in central and northern Japan.Officials at the 2021 Summer Olympics have already adjusted schedules for archery, rowing and sailingon Tuesday, according to the Associated Press, but additional changes are not anticipated.The Japan Meteorological Agency has hoisted high wave and storm surge advisories for the eastern coastline of Honshu, Japan’s main island. No alerts are currently in effect for Tokyo, although a few brief downpours are possible there into Tuesday before the bulk of the storm’s rain shifts to the north. As of 5 a.m. Eastern time, or 6 p.m. Japanese time Monday, Nepartak was a tropical storm with winds of 40 mph. It was located a little more than 300 miles east of the Boso Peninsula, which encompasses Chiba prefecture, or the apex of the archipelago nation’s bend.The storm was moving northwest at 20 mph and is slated to make landfall in northern Honshu early Wednesday local time. Nepartak is not overly impressive on satellite imagery. The Japanese weather satellite Himawari-8, which peers downward at the Pacific from 22,241 miles above Earth, revealed Nepartak to be lopsided and asymmetrical. The counterclockwise circulation of In-fa, the system moving ashore in China’s Zhejiang province, has helped spill south a relatively less humid air mass that is being ingested into the western limb of Nepartak.Thus far, that has prevented the strengthening of Nepartak and is likely to curb its intensification, such that the storm is not forecast to become a typhoon.
Violent hailstorm hits northern Italy (videos) A violent hailstorm hit the town of Fidenza, northwest of Parma, Italy, on July 26, 2021, damaging hundreds of vehicles and bringing traffic on a highway between Milan and Naples to a standstill. A number of people were injured, mainly by glass shards from cracked windows. Rain, hail, and very strong winds have created considerable damage in an area that goes from the river Po to Salsomaggiore Terme, passing through Colorno, San Polo di Torrile and Fidenza, IlMeteo reports. Some buildings were roofed off by the wind, hundreds of houses from which the tiles flew to the ground, while the hail damaged hundreds of cars. Residents reported hail as large as 10 cm (3.9 inches) in diameter.
Italy Bans Large Cruise Ships From Venice - Large cruise ships will be banned from entering the Venice lagoon as of August 1, the Italian government announced Tuesday. It follows years of warnings they risk causing irreparable damage to Venice's ecosystem. "The decree adopted today represents an important step for the protection of the Venetian lagoon system," Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said in a statement. The move affects vessels longer than 180 meters (530 feet) or higher than 35 meters. The decision comes just days before UNESCO convenes over proposals to add Venice to its list of endangered heritage sites. Venice was put on the prestigious list in 1987 after describing the city as an "extraordinary architectural masterpiece." But the UN body said last month the city needed a "more sustainable tourism management." Capital of northern Italy's Veneto region, Venice is built on more than 100 small islands in a lagoon in the Adriatic Sea. Environmental activists say giant ships generate large waves that wreck Venice's foundations and cause severe damage to the lagoon's ecosystem. The city is without roads and its canals are lined with Renaissance and Gothic palaces.
Extreme Ice Melt in Greenland in One Day Was Enough to Cover Florida in Two Inches of Water -- Ice sheets in Greenland are melting so rapidly due to high temperatures in the Arctic that the amount of ice melt from Tuesday was enough to cover all of Florida in two inches of water, according to the researchers atPolar Portal. A massive ice melting event is taking place in #Greenland, according to @PolarPortal It would be enough to cover F… https://t.co/kZdBLFjDQ6 — World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) 1627548056.0 Greenland has lost 18.4 billion tons of surface mass since last Sunday. While not as bad as 2019, this is the third instance of extreme melting in the past decade and the scientists say the area of land melting is larger this time."In the past decade, we've already seen that surface melting in Greenland has become both more severe and more erratic," Thomas Slater, a glaciologist at the University of Leeds told CNN. "As the atmosphere continues to warm over Greenland, events such as yesterday's extreme melting will become more frequent."As reported by CNN:In 2019, Greenland shed roughly 532 billion tons of ice into the sea. During that year, an unexpectedly hot spring and a July heat wave caused almost the entire ice sheet's surface to begin melting. Global sea level rose permanently by 1.5 millimeters as a result.As Greenland's surface continues to thaw, Slater said coastal cities around the world are vulnerable to storm-surge flooding, especially when extreme weather coincides with high tides. Melting from Greenland is expected to raise global sea level between 2 and 10 centimeters by the end of the century, he added.---"While such events are concerning, the science is clear," Slater said. "Meaningful climate targets and action can still limit how much the global sea level will rise this century, reducing the damage done by severe flooding to people and infrastructure around the world."
A 20-Foot Sea Wall Won’t Save Miami – But Living Structures Can - Miami is all about the water and living life outdoors. Walking paths and parks line large stretches of downtown waterfront with a stunning bay view. This downtown core is where the Army Corps of Engineers plans to build a US$6 billion sea wall, 20 feet high in places, through downtown neighborhoods and right between the Brickell district’s high-rises and the bay. There’s no question that the city is at increasing risk of flooding as sea level rises and storms intensify with climate change. A hurricane as powerful as 1992’s Andrew or 2017’s Irma making a direct hit on Miami would devastate the city. But the sea wall the Army Corps is proposing – protecting only 6 miles of downtown and the financial district from a storm surge – can’t save Miami and Dade County. Most of the city will be outside the wall, unprotected; the wall will still trap water inside; and the Corps hasn’t closely studied what the construction of a high sea wall would do to water quality. At the same time, it would block the water views that the city’s economy thrives on.Much of Miami is built right up to the water’s edge. On average, it’s 6 feet above sea level. Ryan Parker/Unsplash, CC BY-ND To protect more of the region without losing Miami’s vibrant character, there are ways to pair the strength of less obtrusive hardened infrastructure with nature-based “green” solutions. With our colleagues at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science and the College of Engineering, we have been designing and testing innovative hybrid solutions. . Parts of Miami now regularly see “sunny day” flooding during high tides. Salt water infiltrates basements and high-rise parking garages, and tidal flooding is forecast to occur more frequently as sea level rises. When storms come through, the storm surge adds to that already high water. Hurricanes are less common than tidal flooding, but their destructive potential is greater, and that is what the Army Corps is focused on with its sea wall plan.If Miami Beach were an undeveloped barrier island, and if thick mangrove forests were still common along the South Florida shoreline, the Miami area would have more natural protection against storm surge and wave action. But most of those living buffers are long gone.There are still ways nature can help preserve the beauty of Miami’s marine playground, though. For example, healthy coral reefs break waves, dissipating their energy before the waves reach shore. Dense mangrove forests also dissipate wave energy with their complex root systems that rise above the water line, dramatically reducing the waves’ impact. In areas where coastal flooding is an increasing problem, low-lying communities can be relocated to higher ground and the vacant land turned into wetlands, canals or parks that are designed to manage storm surge flooding.
Massive landslide in northern India caught on video - A massive landslide caused by heavy rains hit Kinnaur District in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh on July 25, 2021, claiming the lives of 9 people and injuring 3. All of them were tourists from Delhi. Videos of the event show massive rocks tumbling down a mountain before crashing into a bridge and destroying it.
Magma rising at Great Sitkin volcano, Alaska - A lava dome-like feature formed in the summit crater of Great Sitkin volcano, Alaska, suggesting magma is rising near the surface. As a result, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has raised the Aviation Color Code to ORANGE and the Volcano Alert Level to WATCH. A satellite radar image captured at 05:32 UTC on July 23, 2021, shows a small approximately 50 m (150 feet) diameter area of uplift in the center of the crater at Great Sitkin. Seismicity has been at relatively low levels this week compared to last week, making AVO suggest that the lava dome-like feature was emplaced last week. Moderately elevated surface temperatures consistent with this feature were observed in satellite data on July 22. Unfortunately, cloudy conditions have obscured views of the volcano by satellite most of the past week. AVO said it will continue to closely monitor this new uplift feature, adding that the prognosis for eruptive activity is uncertain. "Continued growth of the lava dome feature, additional explosive events, or a return to non-eruptive behaviors are all possible." The first significant explosion at Great Sitkin since 1974 took place on May 26, 2021. The resulting ash cloud rose up to 4.5 km (15 000 feet) above sea level and drifted east. "It had a very loud, audible and low-frequency sound to it.." said David Fee, a coordinating scientist at AVO."We haven’t seen an eruption like this from Great Sitkin at least as long as I’ve been around here," Fee said. "So it could quiet down or we could expect continued activity. We’ll just have to wait and see."
Strong eruption at Sinabung volcano, ash to 7 km (23 000 feet) a.s.l., Indonesia –(video, interactive satellite view) A strong eruption started at the Indonesian Sinabung volcano, North Sumatra at 06:20 UTC on July 28, 2021 (13:20 local time). The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red.According to Sinabung Volcano Observatory, the eruption lasted for about 12 minutes.Two volcanic ash clouds were observed from the ground, the first to 7 km (23 000 feet) a.s.l., moving WSW, and the second to 5.5 km (18 000 feet), moving S.A pyroclastic flow was observed through the east-southeast slope, reaching a distance of about 1 km (0.62 miles) from the summit.The Alert Level remains at 3 (on a scale of 1 - 4), with a general exclusion zone of 3 km (1.8 miles) and extensions to 5 km (3.1 miles) in the SE sector and 4 km (2.5 miles) in the NE sector.In the event of ashfall, people are advised to wear masks when leaving the house to reduce the health impact of volcanic ash. Secure drinking water facilities and clean roofs of houses from heavy volcanic ash so that they do not collapse. People who live near rivers that originate at Mount Sinabung are advised to stay alert to the dangers of lahars.A significant eruption took place at the volcano at 16:35 UTC on June 6.The eruption lasted for 421 seconds but it was not clearly observable due to fog and clouds.Three volcanic ash levels were observed at 21:40 UTC -- to 9.1 km (30 000 feet) a.s.l. moving WSW, 7.3 km (24 000 feet) a.s.l. moving W and to 4.2 km (14 000 feet) a.s.l. moving N. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red at 17:53 UTC and lowered back to Orange at 06:25 on June 7.
Strong explosive eruption at Stromboli volcano, Italy - A strong explosive eruption took place at Stromboli volcano, Italy at 14:47 UTC on July 28, 2021. The explosion was energetically more intense than usual, INGV-OE said.Volcanic products were radially dispersed in the crater area with fallout along the Sciara del Fuoco.From a seismic point of view, the explosive event of the 14:47 UTC is well visible at all seismic stations in Stromboli.With regard to the magnitude of the volcanic tremor, an increase has been observed since 14:00 UTC. All monitored parameters returned to normal levels by 16:05 UTC.
Massive M8.2 earthquake hits near the coast of Alaska, tsunami warnings issued -A massive shallow earthquake registered by the USGS as M8.2 hit near the coast of Alaska at 06:15 UTC on July 29, 2021. The agency is reporting a depth of 32.2 km (20 miles). EMSC is reporting it as M8.2 at depth of 30 km (18.6 miles). This is the strongest earthquake in the world since M8.2 off the coast of Fiji on August 19, 2018.The epicenter was located 90.9 km (56.5 km) ESE of Perryville, Alaska, United States.There are about 400 people living within 100 km (62 miles). 2 000 people are estimated to have felt moderate shaking and 23 000 light. As of 07:31 UTC, a Tsunami Warning is in effect for SOUTH ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA - Pacific coasts from Hinchinbrook Entrance, Alaska (145 km / 90 miles E of Seward) to Unimak Pass, Alaska (138 km / 80 miles NE of Unalaska); and ALEUTIAN ISLANDS - Unimak Pass, Alaska (128 km / 80 miles NE of Unalaska) to Samalga Pass, Alaska (48 km / 30 miles SW of Nikolski).A Tsunami Advisory is in effect for SOUTHEAST ALASKA - The inner and outer coast from Cape Decision, Alaska (138 km / 85 miles SE of Sitka) to Cape Fairweather, Alaska (128 km / 80 miles SE of Yakutat), SOUTH ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA - Pacific coasts from Cape Fairweather, Alaska (128 km / 80 miles SE of Yakutat) to Hinchinbrook Entrance, Alaska (145 km / 90 miles E of Seward); ALEUTIAN ISLANDS - Samalga Pass, Alaska (48 km / 30 miles SW of Nikolski) to Amchitka Pass, Alaska (201 km / 125 miles W of Adak) including the Pribilof Islands.
It's time for US to get serious about cleaning up space junk -With Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos soaring into suborbital space, three U.S. flights to the International Space Station (ISS) in July, and SpaceX delivering 88 satellites to orbit in the last six weeks, space traffic is surging. And this is just the beginning of increased commercial and governmental activity in space.August will see several more trips to the ISS and more launches of satellites. Additionally, the Biden administration signed an agreement with the European Space Agency to use more satellites to address climate change through earth science research. This increased space traffic serves a wide array of purposes and represents vast investments by the private space industry and government. But these investments are going to increasingly be jeopardized by the massive amount of space junk already circling Earth. There’s plenty of room to fly up there, but, believe it or not, NASA estimates there are already 23,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 centimeters and over 500,000 pieces of smaller junk in orbit. This space junk, or orbital debris, travels at high speeds and even a small piece can cause serious damage or destruction if it hits a spacecraft or satellite.The space debris includes thousands of dead and retired satellites, parts of spacecraft from decades of missions, items exploded in warfare testing, and more.Dodging space junk is a regular requirement for spacecrafts in orbit. The International Space Station had to maneuver 25 times between 1999 and 2018 to avoid collisions, and it had to dodge debris three times in 2020.Monitoring this debris is going to be a major issue as private space travel and the space economy grow. In 2019, the global space economy amounted to about $366 billion. Of this, $271 billion was in the satellite industry and $123 billion was directly in satellite services. As the world increasingly becoming reliant on satellites U.S. and global satellite businesses bear the brunt of failure to track and remove orbital debris.\
Planet's Vital Signs Are Reaching Dangerous 'Tipping Points' Amid Climate Crisis, Scientists Warn - More than a year after the Covid-19 pandemic shut down economies around the world and sharply reduced worldwide travel—sparking speculationamong some that emissions would plummet as a result—a coalition of scientists said in a paper published Wednesday that the planet is nonetheless reaching multiple "tipping points," with levels of sea ice melt, deforestation, and other markers revealing that urgent action is needed to mitigate the climate emergency."The extreme climate events and patterns that we've witnessed over the last several years — not to mention the last several weeks — highlight the heightened urgency with which we must address the climate crisis," said Philip Duffy, co-author of the study and executive director of the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts.The "World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021" which waspublished in the journal BioScience, states that 18 out of 31 planetary vital signs have hit record-breaking high or low points in recent years. The paper detailed how despite fossil fuel use dipping slightly in 2020, levels of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide "have all set new year-to-date records for atmospheric concentrations in both 2020 and 2021." The researchers recorded other tipping points or near-tipping points in levels of ocean heat; ice mass; the deforestation of the Amazon, which serves as a vital carbon sink; ocean acidification, and the amount of ruminant livestock, which now number more than four billion and are a significant source of planet-warming gases. "We need to stop treating the climate emergency as a stand-alone issue—global heating is not the sole symptom of our stressed Earth system," William Ripple, a distinguished professor of ecology at Oregon State University's College of Forestry and a co-author of the report, said in a statementThe research was released two months after researchers in Germany and Norway released a study showing Greenland's ice sheet was "at the brink" of reaching a "tipping point," with trillions of tons of ice having flown into the sea.The paper published Wednesday showed the rate of forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon reached a 12-year high of 1.11 million hectares deforested last year and that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached 416 parts per million in April 2021—"the highest monthly global average concentration ever recorded," according to The Guardian.The tipping points recorded in the analysis are all the result of "human overexploitation of the planet," Ripple said.
Climate Crisis Tipping Points Are Now Imminent, Scientists Warn --Thousands of scientists reiterated calls for immediate action over the climate crisis in an article published Wednesday in the journal BioScience."The extreme climate events and patterns that we've witnessed over the last several years — not to mention the last several weeks — highlight the heightened urgency with which we must address the climate crisis," said Philip Duffy, co-author of the study and executive director of the Woodwell Climate Research Center in the US state of Massachusetts.Two years ago, more than 10,000 scientists from around 150 countries jointly declared a global climate emergency. They are now joined by over 2,800 more signatories in urging the protection of life on Earth.Since the 2019 declaration, Earth has seen an "unprecedented surge" in climate-related disasters, researchers noted.What Are the Signs? For the study, researchers relied on "vital signs" to measure planetary health, including greenhouse gas emissions, glacier thickness, sea-ice extent and deforestation. Out of 31 signs, scientists found that 18 hit record highs or lows.The year 2020 was the second-hottest year since records began, scientists said. And earlier this year, the carbon dioxide concentration in the Earth's atmosphere was higher than at any time since measurements began.The authors noted that all-time low levels of ice mass have been recorded in Greenland and Antarctica. Glaciers are melting 31% faster than they did just 15 years ago, they added.Meanwhile, the annual loss rate of the Brazilian Amazon reached a 12-year high in 2020.Tim Lenton, director of the University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute and co-author of the study, said therecent record-breaking heat wave in the western United States and Canada showed that the climate had already begun to "behave in shocking, unexpected ways." "We need to respond to the evidence that we are hitting climate tipping points with equally urgent action to decarbonize the global economy and start restoring instead of destroying nature," he said.
Three Americans create enough carbon emissions to kill one person, study finds --The lifestyles of around three average Americans will create enough planet-heating emissions to kill one person, and the emissions from a single coal-fired power plant are likely to result in more than 900 deaths, according to the first analysis to calculate the mortal cost of carbon emissions.The new research builds upon what is known as the “social cost of carbon”, a monetary figure placed upon the damage caused by each ton of carbon dioxide emissions, by assigning an expected death toll from the emissions that cause the climate crisis.The analysis draws upon several public health studies to conclude that for every 4,434 metric tons of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere beyond the 2020 rate of emissions, one person globally will die prematurely from the increased temperature. This additional CO2 is equivalent to the current lifetime emissions of 3.5 Americans.Adding a further 4m metric tons above last year’s level, produced by the average US coal plant, will cost 904 lives worldwide by the end of the century, the research found. On a grander scale, eliminating planet-heating emissions by 2050 would save an expected 74 million lives around the world this century.The figures for expected deaths from the release of emissions aren’t definitive and may well be “a vast underestimate” as they only account for heat-related mortality rather than deaths from flooding, storms, crop failures and other impacts that flow from the climate crisis, according to Daniel Bressler of Columbia University’s Earth Institute, who wrote the paper.Air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels is also directly killing people, with a landmark Harvard University study published in February finding that more than 8 million globally are dying each year from the health effects of toxic air.“There are a significant number of lives that can be saved if you pursue climate policies that are more aggressive than the business as usual scenario,” Bressler said. “I was surprised at how large the number of deaths are. There is some uncertainty over this, the number could be lower but it could also be a lot higher.”The research, published in Nature Communications, illustrates the vast disparities in the emissions generated by people’s consumption in different countries around the world. While it takes just 3.5 Americans to create enough emissions in a lifetime to kill one person, it would take 25 Brazilians or 146 Nigerians to do the same, the paper found.
Earth Overshoot Day Moves Forward By Nearly a Month - After a temporary reprieve due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Earth Overshoot Day — the day humanity is projected to have used up all the planet's biological resources regenerated in one year — has shifted forward again, this year landing on July 29."With almost half a year remaining, we will already have used up our quota of the Earth's biological resources for 2021," said Susan Aitken, leader of Glasgow City Council, where world leaders will gather later this year for the COP26 climate summit in November. "If we need reminding that we're in the grip of a climate and ecological emergency, Earth Overshoot Day is it."As much of the world was living under coronavirus lockdowns in 2020, last year's Overshoot Day fell on August 22, nearly a month later than the high of July 25 set in 2018. But this year, even though carbon emissions from air travel and road transport are still lagging 2019 highs, a rallying global economy is pushing emissions and consumption back up."Rather than recognize this as a reset moment, governments have been eager to get back to business-as-usual. Global emissions are already creeping back up to pre-pandemic levels," said Stephanie Feldstein, population and sustainability director at the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD), a US-based environmental group.In an email to DW, she pointed out that even with last year's shutdowns, greenhouse gases only declined 6.4% in 2020 — a substantial drop representing around twice Japan's yearly emissions, but not enough to turn things around. "We missed opportunities when bailout funds were given to major climate polluters, like the aviation and meat industries, without any requirements for a green recovery," said Feldstein. "And we continue to miss opportunities every day that officials refuse to recognize the climate and extinction crises as emergencies — just like the pandemic."
Hank Paulson's TPG Climate Fund Raises $5.4 Billion The revolving door between private sector Wall Street jobs and the Treasury and/or Fed continues...Today's installment is brought to you by former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who is now officially executive chairman of The TPG Rise Climate fund.Just 6 months after Hank Paulson began his personal roadshow to try and drum up investor capital, TPG's inaugural fund, focused on its "climate investing strategy", has raised $5.4 billion from high profile investors like Allstate and Hartford Financial, Reuters reported this week. The fund's investor base also includes the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and France's AXA, the report notes.TPG says the fund is "designed to expand the scope of commercially viable climate technologies". Recall, back in January 2021 we noted that Paulson was returning to Wall Street to run the new climate-focused investment fund. It marked Paulson's first return to the private sector since leaving Goldman in 2006. In January, the NYT wrote how Paulson was recruited to run the fund by none other than U2 frontman Bono: This past fall, Henry M. Paulson Jr., the former Treasury secretary, got a call from Paul David Hewson, better known as Bono. The musician-activist-investor had an idea and “an ask”: Bono, who helped found TPG’s $5 billion Rise funds focused on “impact investing,” told Mr. Paulson that the investment firm wanted to create an even bigger platform to focus exclusively on combating climate change — and he wanted Mr. Paulson to run it. Mr. Paulson, who has spent the last 12 years since leaving his post at the Treasury away from the private sector running his nonprofit institute and working on climate change initiatives, demurred. This week, after months of calls and meetings that followed with Jon Winkelried, TPG’s co-chief executive - Mr. Paulson’s friend and former colleague when he ran Goldman Sachs - Mr. Paulson will become the executive chairman of a new global fund, TPG Rise Climate. But why tap Paulson for such a role? As it turns out, the former Treasury Secretary has dedicated himself to combating climate change via various nonprofits over the past decade or so. Paulson and TPG co-founder Jim Coulter said their goal with the fund is to "to make investments in climate that are as profitable as any other kind of investment." We commented back in January that we suspected "Paulson won't have much trouble recruiting investors". That looks to have been an accurate assessment. And just like that, Paulson has become the most important ESG investor in the world.
Huge carbon capture pipeline network proposed: Industry's 'delay-and-fail strategy' rises again --An astute journalist I know once described carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a "delay-and-fail strategy" devised by the fossil fuel industry. The industry's ploy was utterly obvious to him: Promise to perfect and deploy CCS at some vague point in the future. By the time people catch on that CCS won't work, the fossil fuel industry will have successfully extended the time it has operated without onerous regulation for another couple of decades.And because huge financial resources (mostly government resources) will have gone to CCS projects instead of low-carbon energy production, society will continue to be wildly dependent on carbon-based fuels (giving the industry further running room).The trouble is that the cynical CCS strategy has already been under way and failing for more than two decades already. And yet, it is seeking a renewed lease on life with a proposal for a vast network of carbon dioxide pipelines "twice the size of the current U.S. oil pipeline network by volume." The public face of the effort is a former Obama administration secretary of energy with a perennially bad haircut, Ernest Moniz.Moniz has a partnership with the AFL-CIO to push the idea. No doubt unions like the project because it would create a lot of jobs regardless of whether it actually addresses climate change.Just for the record, here's a list of reasons that CCS doesn't work and likely will not work in any time frame that matters for addressing climate change:
- It's very costly. Many of the pilot projects have been shut down because they are uneconomical.
- Suitable underground storage is not abundant and frequently not near facilities that produce the carbon dioxide.
- Long-term storage may fail, releasing the carbon dioxide into the atmosphere anyway. After all, one must have injection wells into the underground storage, wells that can leak if not properly maintained. Not least, there is no multi-decade record of successful, leak-free sequestration. And finally, there is no assurance that such storage facilities can be maintained properly for the many centuries required to have them actually protect the climate.
- The carbon dioxide in some current viable CCS projects is used by the oil industry to flush out more oil from existing wells. That's hardly in keeping with the purpose of addressing climate change.
Energy expert Vaclav Smil did some calculations for an American Scientist magazine article that demonstrate the scale of the CCS challenge: [I]n order to sequester just a fifth of current CO2 emissions we would have to create an entirely new worldwide absorption-gathering-compression-transportation-storage industry whose annual throughput would have to be about 70 percent larger than the annual volume now handled by the global crude oil industry whose immense infrastructure of wells, pipelines, compressor stations and storages took generations to build. Technically possible—but not within a timeframe that would prevent CO2 from rising above 450 ppm.
Bipartisan deal would make Biden attack his own agenda - The bipartisan infrastructure deal could supply Republicans and the fossil fuel industry with fresh political ammunition. The legislation would require the Energy Department to undertake a trio of studies framed in terms that are hostile to President Biden’s climate agenda, according to a summary of the package. One mandatory study would require the Energy Department to report “job loss and impacts on consumer energy costs” due to Biden’s cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline. Two other mandatory studies would focus on electric vehicle supply chains. One would examine “the cradle to grave environmental impact of electric vehicles.” Another would require the Energy and State departments to analyze the “impact of forced labor in China on the electric vehicle supply chain.” The pointed language of those requirements stands apart from other studies mandated by the deal. They echo conservative attacks on Biden’s environmental policy, though some Democrats have voiced them, too. Unions have also raised similar concerns about pipeline projects and overseas labor. Including them in the bipartisan deal could further inflame progressives, who are already deriding the infrastructure package as the product of oil industry influence. Biden canceled the Keystone XL’s permits on his first day in office. TC Energy Corp., the pipeline’s developer, said the cancellation forced the company to lay off 1,000 laborers and potentially reduced thousands of other jobs. Republicans spent weeks hammering Biden for those layoffs and connecting them to his broader climate agenda. House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy of California held an event in Texas to lambaste the president. “Come look in the face of any of those workers who earn $80,000 a year and tell them why you took their jobs away, without ever talking to them,” he said.
Andreas Malm Versus Property: ‘Because Nothing Else Has Worked’ - Yves here. As much as Tom Neuberger is careful to make the point that he isn’t advocating Andreas Malm’s enthusiasm for destruction of property, in my view the fact that Malm is get attention supports the notion that the urgency of climate change and ideas like radical conservation aren’t getting the hearing they remotely deserve. Breaking things as an answer is a nihilistic, desperate impulse. Mind you, we long ago predicted that America would be very unlikely to have a revolution, but instead would see more random acts of violence, like school and workplace shootings.The reason I’m not at all a fan is our only hope of avoiding worst outcomes is building communities and networks. By contrast, attacks on property, even if they are unquestionably bad carbon-emitters, violates one of Sun Tsu’s rules of combat: “Tactics without strategy is the noise before the defeat.”If you don’t think the government won’t support aggressive and heavily subsidized programs to rebuild energy infrastructure destroyed by “domestic terrorists”, you are smoking something strong. And that means even more carbon generation in transportation and construction. And property destruction (which may wind up involving deaths or maiming) is also a gimmie to carbon emitters, since it will help them in depicting climate change realists (as in those who correctly say radical action is necessary) as allies of thugs.And while you can agree on a higher level with his contention that property rights are the root of our climate disaster, where do you go with that? Remember that the Biblical prohibition was not against money but the love of money. I suspect that most people actually would be satisfied with “enough,” as in food, shelter, companionship, sufficient leisure time, and a safety buffer. But not that many are in that position, despite our supposed material wealth, plus the avaricious are for the most part the ones driving this bus. Malm, and his commentators like Ezra Klein, seem bizarrely clueless as to how society operates. We are all part of a complex system. No one has much power; look at how little even Trump as President was able to do of pet initiatives like his wall. And aside from everyone but the independently wealthy or landowning subsistence farmers needing to conform to a fair degree merely to survive, there is also the wee problem of obligations, like to one’s spouse and children, for starters.
Lifetime emissions of EVs are lower than gasoline cars, experts say - The number of electric vehicles on the world's roads is surging, hitting a record number last year. That would seem to be good news, as the world tries to wean itself off fossil fuels that are wrecking the global climate. But as electric cars become more popular, some question just how environmentally friendly they are.The batteries in electric vehicles, for example, charge on power that is coming straight off the electric grid — which is itself often powered by fossil fuels. And there are questions about how energy-intensive it is to build an EV or an EV battery, versus building a comparable traditional vehicle. Are electric vehicles greener?The short answer is yes — but their full green potential is still many years away.Experts broadly agree that electric vehicles create a lower carbon footprint over the course of their lifetime than do cars and trucks that use traditional, internal combustion engines.Last year, researchers from the universities of Cambridge, Exeter and Nijmegen in The Netherlands found that in 95% of the world, driving an electric car is better for the environment than driving a gasoline-powered car.Electricity grids in most of the world are still powered by fossil fuels such as coal or oil, and EVs depend on that energy to get charged. Separately, EV battery production remains an energy-intensive process. Producing electric vehicles leads to significantly more emissions than producing petrol cars ... which is mostly from the battery production. A study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Initiativefound that the battery and fuel production for an EV generates higher emissions than the manufacturing of an automobile. But those higher environmental costs are offset by EVs' superior energy efficiency over time.In short, the total emissions per mile for battery-powered cars are lower than comparable cars with internal combustion engines."If we are going to take a look at the current situation, in some countries, electric vehicles are better even with the current grid," Sergey Paltsev, a senior research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative and one of the study's authors, told CNBC.Paltsev explained that the full benefits of EVs will be realized only after the electricity sources become renewable, and it might take several decades for that to happen.
The bipartisan infrastructure bill is good for EVs, bad for the climate - If it’s approved, the bipartisan infrastructure deal announced this week will make it easier for Americans to buy and own an electric car. But it won’t help meet President Joe Biden’s ambitious goal to cut carbon emissions in half by 2030.Experts in urban policy and electrification told The Verge that the money authorized for a nationwide network of EV chargers would have a measurable impact on Americans’ car-buying choices. The $1 trillion deal ($550 billion of which is new spending) includes $7.5 billion to fund Biden’s plan to build half a million EV chargers across the country, which will help mend the mostly fractured, occasionally broken system we currently have. A more dependable charging network will likely help juice EV sales in the US over the next decade.But it won’t help to steer people away from cars and toward more environmental modes of transportation, which many experts believe is necessary to reduce carbon emissions and fight climate change. There is a long way still to go. While a bipartisan group of Senate negotiators agreed on a broad framework of a deal, the bill still needs to pass through both chambers of Congress before it ends up on Biden’s desk for his signature. A lot could happen between now and then.If this deal passes, though, it will likely entrench — not disrupt — the transportation habits of millions of Americans. The bipartisan infrastructure plan “will make it more feasible for Americans to buy EVs and then drive them around with fewer problems,” Yonah Freemark, senior research associate at the Urban Institute, said in an email.But when it comes to the question of whether the deal will encourage Americans to use modes of transportation that are cleaner than EVs, Freemark was more pessimistic. “The bill does not seem likely to produce the conditions for a movement of Americans away from driving and toward other modes like transit, walking, and biking,” he said.Photo by Michael M. Santiago / Getty ImagesThere was an opportunity to revolutionize the way people get around. The proposal unveiled by the White House earlier this year was billed as an “equity-promoting, climate-change-preventing proposal,” Freemark tweeted. But as the process wound its way through the legislative meat-grinder, those radical elements — like funding for housing, schools, and racial equity — were left out.For example, the bipartisan deal makes no provisions to require states and localities to “fix it first” before building new roads and highways. The original proposal called on states to repair existing roads and bridges before committing to new projects. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said as much in an interview with The Verge in May: “When we fix things, let’s fix them right,” he said, “not just redo the status quo.” But that provision was dropped from the bipartisan deal, which allocates nearly three times as much money for highways ($300 billion) as it does for public transportation ($105 billion). That means our highway system is likely to expand at a much greater rate than our transit infrastructure. Wider roads typically lead to more car traffic — which, in turn, generates more planet-warming emissions.
U.S. judge rules Lithium Americas may excavate Nevada mine site - A U.S. federal judge has ruled that Lithium Americas Corp may conduct excavation work at its Thacker Pass lithium mine site in Nevada, denying a request from environmentalists who said the digging could harm sage grouse and other wildlife. The ruling marked a rare win for a U.S. critical minerals project as environmental groups increasingly pressure courts and regulators to block mining projects, even if they produce metals key to building electric vehicles. Chief Judge Miranda Du of the federal court in Reno, Nevada, said late on Friday that the digging – needed to determine whether the land holds historical import for Native Americans – may proceed while she determines the broader question of whether former President Donald Trump’s administration erred when it approved the project in January. Du said she will try to publish her decision by early 2022. Vancouver, Canada-based Lithium Americas had agreed not to dig before July 29 while Du deliberated. It was not immediately clear if the company now intends to start digging on that date. Company representatives could not be reached for comment. The land that would be affected amounts to less than a quarter of an acre on a project roughly 18,000 acres in size, a factor which Du said affected her decision. Additionally, Du said, environmental groups could not prove what specific damage would be caused by the digging, only hypothetical guesses. Environmentalists “failed to meet their burden to show they will be irreparably harmed,” Du said. “We are disappointed in the court’s ruling allowing the company to dig up and remove cultural and historical artifacts,” said Kelly Fuller of the Western Watersheds Project, one of the environmental groups that sued to block the project. Fuller said the group looks forward to a hearing with Du in the future to argue the entire project should be canceled.
EXCLUSIVE: Biden mileage rule to exceed Obama climate goal (AP) — In a major step against climate change, President Joe Biden is proposing a return to aggressive Obama-era vehicle mileage standards over five years, according to industry and government officials briefed on the plan. He's then aiming for even tougher anti-pollution rules after that to forcefully reduce greenhouse gas emissions and nudge 40% of U.S. drivers into electric vehicles by decade’s end. The proposed rules from the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Transportation reflect Biden's pledge to attack climate change but also balance concerns of the auto industry, which is urging a slower transition to zero-emission electric vehicles. The regulatory action would tighten tailpipe emissions standards rolled back under President Donald Trump. The proposed rules are expected to be released as early as next week, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the rules haven't been finalized. Environmental groups said Tuesday that the proposal did not go far enough. “The world isn’t the same as it was in 2012 when President Obama signed the clean car standards,” said Katherine Garcia, acting director of Sierra Club’s Clean Transportation for All campaign. “Millions of Americans have had to swelter in heat waves, evacuate their homes in the face of onrushing wildfires, or bail out flooded homes.” Biden has set a goal of cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by at least half by 2030. The transportation sector is the single biggest U.S. contributor to climate change. The proposed rules would begin with the 2023 car model year, applying California's 2019 framework agreement on emissions standards reached with Ford, Volkswagen, Honda, BMW and Volvo, according to three of the officials. The California deal increases the mileage standard and cuts greenhouse gas emissions by 3.7% per year. Requirements ramp up in 2025 to Obama-era levels of a 5% annual increase in the mileage standard and a similar cut in emissions. They then go higher than that for model year 2026, one of the people said, perhaps in the range of 6% or 7%. Neither EPA nor the Transportation Department would comment on the proposal.
UK to study using overhead wires to power long-haul trucks - The U.K.'s Department of Transport has commissioned a consortium to look into the viability of using overhead wires to power long-distance trucks.Headed up by construction and engineering group Costain, it includes companies such as Scania and Siemens Mobility, among others, and represents the latest example of how industry and government are trying to develop solutions focused on decarbonizing transportation.In a statement issued earlier this week, Costain explained how the consortium had "proposed an 'electric road system'" that would harness Siemens Mobility's "eHighway" technology, which uses overhead lines to provide trucks with electricity. According to Siemens Mobility, when using the eHighway, "trucks can operate completely electrically and at the same time charge their batteries without using fuel."The funding has been delivered via Innovate UK, the U.K.'s innovation agency. Costain said it was hoped the study, which is due to last nine months, would act as "the forerunner of a scheme that aims to see the UK's major roads served by overhead lines by the 2030s." Breaking things down, the team will focus on the electrification of a stretch of road between the South Yorkshire town of Doncaster, its airport and the Port of Immingham, on the east coast of England. While the U.K.-based project will be looking into the potential of using overhead wires to power road-based transportation, the tech has already been deployed in other parts of the world. Siemens Mobility says tests of the eHighway are underway in Germany on three public routes.
Low-carbon hydrogen is not cheap and needs support, says major energy organization -Low-carbon hydrogen isn't "cost competitive with other energy supplies in most applications and locations" and the situation is unlikely to change unless there's "significant support to bridge the price gap," according to the World Energy Council.Published Tuesday, the analysis – which was put together in collaboration with PwC and the U.S. Electric Power Research Institute – raised the question of where funding for such support would come from, but also pointed to the increasing profile of the sector and the positive effect this could have.In an announcement accompanying a briefing, the London-based energy organization said "environmental and political drivers" were "sending encouraging signals to the market and prompting growing interest." Globally, many pilot projects were being developed, built or in operation, it added.Described by the International Energy Agency as a "versatile energy carrier," hydrogen has a diverse range of applications and can be deployed in sectors such as industry and transport.It can be produced in a number of ways. One method includes using electrolysis, with an electric current splitting water into oxygen and hydrogen. If the electricity used in the process comes from a renewable source, such as wind or solar, then some call it green or renewable hydrogen.Currently, the vast majority of hydrogen generation is based on fossil fuels, and green hydrogen is expensive to produce. Efforts are being made to drive costs down, however. The U.S. Department of Energy recently launched its Energy Earthshots Initiative and said the first of these would focus on cutting the cost of "clean" hydrogen to $1 per kilogram (2.2 lbs) in a decade. According to the DOE, hydrogen from renewables is priced at around $5 a kilogram today.
West intertie capacity raised with Bootleg Fire containment, thermal still strong - The high-voltage alternating-current transmission intertie connecting Pacific Northwest energy resources to California load pockets has increased capacity to 4.6 GW as conditions with the Bootleg Fire have progressed to allow the blaze to be 46% contained."Conditions with the Bootleg fire have evolved and BPA raised the transfer capacity 4,600 MW at 2 p.m. [July 26]," BPA Spokeswoman Maryam Habibi. "We based the decision on reports on the ground, the fact that we've seen no issues with the lines since service was restored last week, and predicted fire behavior. We are still monitoring the fire and realize that conditions can change quickly." California Independent System Operator imports fell to an average of 7.1% of the total fuel mix July 9-12 when the Bootleg Fire knocked out the AC and DC lines that send power generation from the Northwest into California. The drop in imports, which typically make up about a quarter of the ISO supply, led the grid operator to declare a Stage 2 grid emergency after the loss of about 5.5 GW of imports.The AC line tripped July 10 and by July 14 was back in service able to carry up to 3 GW. Line capacity is 4.8 GW.Cal-ISO imports have averaged about 13% lower year on year so far in July at 136.420 GWh/day, with thermal generation filling in the gap, up 44% year on year so far this month to average 308.235 GWh/d despite higher gas prices in 2021, according to ISO data.The strong call on gas-fired generators to ramp up in times of stress on the grid — whether from heat waves or loss of power imports — has boosted regional spot gas prices this summer compared with last and contributed to their relative volatility.SoCal Gas city-gate cash has averaged $6.28/MMBtu so far in July, more than three times above the $1.89/MMBtu average for the same time last year.
Electricity Use Did Not Drop Last Time Californians Were Asked to Voluntarily Cut Back - Californians largely ignored statewide calls to conserve energy during a July heatwave, officials said. The state issues "Flex Alerts" during extreme weather conditions in order to prevent the state's power grid from collapsing. Californians are asked to voluntarily shut off major appliances, turn off unnecessary lights and kick up their thermostats to at least 78 degrees. The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) has issued five Flex Alerts already this summer, and residents are showing signs that they are tired of cutting back. Severin Borenstein, a member of the CAISO board of governors, said he does not believe Californians are "not taking [the energy issue] that seriously." During the Flex Alerts issued for a heatwave on July 9 and 10, the energy demand in the state did not drop at all, Politico reported. "I think that we are going to need more response than we saw last night," CASIO CEO Elliot Mainzer said on July 10 following the disappointing conservation numbers. Another Flex Alert was issued for July 12, and a noticeable difference in energy usage was reported by the CAISO. July 12 saw cooler temperatures in some parts of the state, according to the National Weather Service.
New wires? Electrical transmission line planned from Noble to Tulsa counties; public forums set --Beginning next month, an energy company will seek in-person, community and landowner feedback from Tulsa, Creek and Noble counties on its plans to build a roughly $100 million, 80-mile electric transmission line across a portion of the state.Transource Energy, a partnership between Ohio-based American Electric Power (AEP) and Evergy, is developing the Sooner-Wekiwa Project, a new overhead electric transmission line in Oklahoma designed to save customers hundreds of millions of dollars.AEP is the parent company of Tulsa-based Public Service Company of Oklahoma (PSO), which generates, transmits and distributes electric power to about 565,000 retail customers in eastern and southwestern Oklahoma.The Southwest Power Pool (SPP), the electricity balancing market for a multi-state region that includes Oklahoma, awarded Transource the opportunity to construct a new electric transmission line in Oklahoma to address deficiencies in the electric grid and improve consumer access to low-cost power.The 345-kilovolt (kV) line will stretch from Oklahoma Gas & Electric’s Sooner Substation in Noble County to PSO’s Wekiwa Substation in western Tulsa County near Sand Springs.Transource plans to build the new overhead electric transmission line connecting the two substations, which will make make upgrades at their respective substations.
U.S. coal gets boost from higher gas prices: Kemp (Reuters) - Rising gas prices are encouraging U.S. electricity generators to raise output from coal-fired units slightly this summer, providing a temporary reprieve for the beleaguered coal mining sector. U.S. coal production, which was already in long-term decline, slumped during the first wave of coronavirus infections and lockdowns, but has been trending upward since the middle of last year as the economy has recovered. Mine output averaged 11.7 million short tons per week over the five weeks ending on July 17, up from 9.3 million tons at the same point a year ago, though still down from 13.1 million tons in 2019. Production is around 18% below the pre-pandemic five-year average, but that is an improvement on a deficit of 40% at the end of May last year, according to estimates prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA estimates are based on the volume of coal loaded onto railroad cars each week rather than direct measurements of coal cut ("Weekly coal production report", EIA, July 22).But power producers' coal stocks have been relatively plentiful so the increase in shipments implies generators are boosting orders and preparing to run coal-fired units for more hours in the months ahead. Over the last decade, many coal-fired units have closed, while the remainder have generated for fewer hours, cycling on and off for shorter periods, sometimes at less than full-load (https://tmsnrt.rs/3rD6U0F).The residual coal fleet is generating less efficiently because units spend a higher proportion of their time warming up, synchronising to the grid, and ramping up and down, rather than producing steadily at full output. Remaining coal units produced an average of just 40% of their maximum theoretical output last year, down from 54% in 2015, while output from the growing number of combined-cycle gas-fired units has been steady at around 56%.Coal units have increasingly been forced into the uncomfortable role of daily and seasonal load following, a role to which they are not really suited, rather than their traditional function of supplying base load power. During the first wave of coronavirus, with much of the economy in lockdown, and power consumption falling, coal generators' capacity utilisation slumped to just 26% in April and 28% in May 2020. In the same months this year, capacity utilisation has bounced back to 35% and 40% respectively and should rise further over the summer as high temperatures and air-conditioning loads boost power demand.
Days later, coal still sitting in canal near James river after train derailed - (WRIC) — Piles of coal still remain in a canal near the James river after 13 train cars carrying the fossil fuel derailed on Friday — and it’s raising environmental concerns. A spokesperson for the railroad owner, CSX, said workers are currently making sure the coal doesn’t spill further into the water. However, the spokesperson, Cindy Schild, said CSX still has not hired a contractor to fully remove the coal from the Kanawha canal. “It’s a really serious issue when something like this happens,” said Tim Cywinski, an environmental advocate for Virginia’s Sierra Club chapter.Drone video shot Tuesday afternoon shows crews taking coal from areas around the water and loading it into trucks. The negative effects of coal still sitting in the Kanawha canal is worrying some like Cywinski. “Coal is made up of a lot of toxic chemicals. Arsenic, lead, mercury, that’s just a few of them,” he said. “So whenever that gets introduced to a natural habitat it’s always going to be disruptive. So I would not be surprised if aquatic life took a real damage in this incident,” he said. Cywinski added as long as the fossil fuel is cleaned up correctly, there should be minimal or no effects on our drinking water. After the crash Friday, Schild told 8News “there was no impact to nearby waterways.” She went on to say some remaining coal was carefully, purposefully dumped out so cars could be removed. “CSX performed a controlled dump of the remaining coal from the damaged cars in order to clear them from the area,” Schild said. “Environmental measures were deployed to ensure that there is no impact from the dumped coal before it is completely recovered and removed from the scene.” However, a drone video sent to 8News from a concerned viewer the day after the crash shows coal spilling into the canal. “I do not trust any corporation to act in the best interest of the community they serve or transit through. Corporations exist to turn a profit and save money where they can,” said Walker Smithson, who sent the video.
Testing East Tennessee playground confirms presence of toxic coal ash -- More than two years after Knox News sounded the alarm that children could be exposed to radioactive coal ash on an East Tennessee playground, an independent scientific study has confirmed coal ash waste at the site. The study — published this week in one of the nation's top environmental science and technology journals — reveals coal ash contamination at a children’s playground adjacent to the Tennessee Valley Authority's Bull Run coal-fired power plant in Claxton and on several properties downwind of the plant. Coal ash is the byproduct of burning coal to produce electricity, and it contains a toxic stew of 26 cancer-causing pollutants and radioactive heavy metals. “The kids that are playing there would be exposed every time dust is kicked up or they are playing in sand there or whatever kids do,”said Duke University lead researcher Dr. Avner Vengosh. “The kids playing there are more vulnerable than adults.” The presence of coal ash particles on properties surrounding the Bull Run Fossil Plant also worries Vengosh. The plant has generated the toxic waste for decades in the working-class Claxton neighborhood about 17 miles northwest of Knoxville. “It means people who live there will be more vulnerable to early death,” Vengosh said. “The people living there have chronic exposure. Some of them have been living there for 20, 30 years.” TVA stores millions of tons of coal ash in the working-class neighborhood of Claxton and, so far, plans to leave it there when the utility shuts down Bull Run in less than two years.
Joe Manchin Makes $500K a Year From One of the Dirtiest Coal Plants in West Virginia - That’s more than twice his salary as a U.S. senator. Joe Manchin, the conservative Democrat from West Virginia who is the linchpin of his party’s climate agenda, made nearly $500,000 from one of the most polluting coal power plants in West Virginia last year alone. According to his most recent financial disclosure, Manchin gained $492,000 last year due to his non-public shares in a coal company called Enersystems, which records show is a contractor for a power plant in the state’s north that burns waste coal. Meanwhile, Manchin’s 2020 income for being a senator was $174,000. “He’s making more than twice as much selling coal as he is serving as a representative,” said Jim Kotcon, the conservation chair of the West Virginia chapter of the Sierra Club. Due to impurities in the waste coal Grant Town Power Plant burns to generate electricity, it releases more sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxide per unit of energy than any of the state’s coal plants, according to 2018 calculations from Kotcon.“In terms of both of those pollutants,” Kotcon told VICE News, “it’s still the dirtiest plant operating in West Virginia today.”If that plant were shut down, the decrease in air pollution could potentially prevent 18 deaths, eight heart attacks, and 169 asthma attacks each year, data compiled by a research and advocacy group called Clean Air Task Force suggests. It would also halt over 900,000 tons of climate-warming carbon dioxide emissions that Grant Town releases annually. Despite the facility’s heavy pollution, Kotcon and other environmental advocates aren’t aware of any studies quantifying health impacts from the plant on the nearby community.
NRC approves 'indirect' license transfer for Vermont Yankee — The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved what it calls an indirect license transfer of the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant site to a corporate partner of NorthStar Nuclear Decommissioning Co. LLC.NorthStar and its parent company, John F. Lehman GP Investors, are going through a corporate reorganization, which will put the owner of the West Texas nuclear waste disposal site, Waste Control Specialists — where the vast majority of the remains of Vermont Yankee are headed — at the top of the ownership pyramid of Vermont Yankee, according to the NRC decision.NorthStar filed the request for the indirect license transfer last November.The decision from the NRC also affects a second decommissioning project that NorthStar is undertaking at Crystal River reactor No. 3 in Florida. However, ownership of that reactor remains with Duke Energy, according to the NRC decision.“No physical changes to the Vermont Yankee site or operational changes were proposed,” the NRC remarked.The federal regulator labeled it “an internal reorganization with new intermediary holding company acquiring control of NorthStar.”
Redmond-based clean energy startup to build pioneering fusion energy facility - Local startup Helion Energy said Tuesday it will build a facility in Everett to test the latest version of its “fusion energy” generator, a project it said has the potential to create electricity without producing any carbon emissions. Gov. Jay Inslee, who joined company officials and Everett Mayor Cassie Franklin at the announcement, said the technology could be a “world-shaking” contribution to transforming how energy is produced. “We are dependent on the success of this company. … We are being ravaged by the carbon pollution and climate change,” he said. The facility, which Helion says will bring 150 new jobs to Everett, is the next step toward its goal of building the world’s first commercial fusion power facility. The company currently employs 55 and is based in Redmond but said it will be moving its headquarters to Everett. Helion’s technology involves a machine that creates an excruciatingly hot chamber in which pairs of atoms are fused together, releasing energy that can be turned into electricity. Unlike “fission,” in which a large atom is split to produce power inside a nuclear reactor, Helion said its fusion technology generates no long-lived radioactive waste or dangerous byproducts. The company last month said it made history when it became the first private company to create conditions exceeding 100 million degrees Celsius, the temperature necessary for fusion to occur. Helion intends to use the new facility to house the seventh prototype of its fusion reactor, and also to commercially produce a specialized form of helium “for the first time ever here on Earth,” said David Kirtley, founder and CEO of Helion Energy. Helium-3, as it’s known, is an “ultra-rare” ingredient necessary for Helion’s fusion energy process. It is more abundant on the moon than it is on Earth.
‘This is not a bluff’: Exelon moves to shut down 2 nuclear power plants in Illinois as parent company of scandal-plagued ComEd seeks more state subsidies - Chicago Tribune --The parent company of scandal-plagued Commonwealth Edison filed plans with federal regulators to shut down two nuclear power plants for which it is seeking state subsidies that have been caught up in stalled energy negotiations in Springfield. Gov. J.B. Pritzker has proposed a deal that would put power customers on the hook for a nearly $700 million bailout of three Exelon nuclear plants, including the plants in Byron and Dresden that are facing closure. Lawmakers returned to the Capitol in mid-June to vote on an energy policy overhaul but left town without an agreement on the timeline for phasing out natural gas-fired plants. Exelon has argued that state subsidies are necessary for its nuclear plants, which don’t emit carbon pollution, to compete with plants that run on fossil fuels. “With no signs of a breakthrough on clean energy legislation in Springfield, we have no choice but to take these final steps in preparation for shutting down the plants,” Exelon Generation Chief Nuclear Officer Dave Rhoades said in a statement. “We will never stop fighting for policies to preserve Illinois’ nuclear fleet, knowing that the minute these plants close our customers will experience dirtier air and higher energy costs. But with time running out, we must plan for the future and do everything we can to prepare our employees and the communities they serve for what lies ahead.” Exelon’s threat to close the plants mirrors the company’s strategy from 2016, when it succeeded in winning approval for subsidies for two other plants. That legislation is now at the center of an ongoing federal corruption investigation in which its ComEd subsidiary has admitted to engaging in a yearslong bribery scheme to win support for its agenda in Springfield.M
Davis-Besse to undergo inspection after multiple diesel generator failures — The Davis-Besse nuclear power plant will undergo a special inspection by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission after multiple diesel generator failures during testing and maintenance and a “complicated,” unplanned automatic shutdown of a nuclear reactor on July 8, the agency announced Tuesday. “The six-person inspection team will review the company’s response to each diesel generator failure, including the company’s cause analysis, extent of condition reviews, maintenance practices and system design,” the NRC said in a prepared statement. “The team will also focus on the circumstances affecting the recent complicated automatic reactor shutdown, which was triggered by a turbine trip, assessing equipment performance and operator response.” Viktoria Mitlyng, senior public affairs officer at the agency’s regional office in Lisle, Ill., said the inspection began Monday, has no “hard stop date,” and doesn’t even have a timeline because that will depend on what inspectors find. “It will take as long as the inspectors need to review both issues and understand the circumstances of what happened and why,” Ms. Mitlyng said. The plant’s two emergency diesel generators have failed four times during testing, and a station-blackout generator failed during maintenance, the statement said. Normal plant operations were not affected and public safety was maintained. The emergency generators provide power to the plant if offsite power is lost, while the station-blackout generator is designed to back up those two. One diesel generator is sufficient for the plant to shut down safely and remain in a stable condition, the NRC statement said. And while the NRC was planning its special inspection of the generator failures, Davis-Besse had an unplanned automatic shutdown of its nuclear reactor, and “certain pieces of equipment did not function as designed” during the ensuing response, the agency said. “Operators took action to address the equipment issues, and the reactor was shut down safely and placed in a stable condition. After making the necessary repairs, the reactor returned to power,” the statement said. “Based on the complications of the [unplanned automatic shutdown of a nuclear reactor], the agency chose to expand the special inspection to better understand equipment performance issues and operator response.” Davis-Besse, in Ottawa County’s Carroll Township north of Oak Harbor, is operated by Energy Harbor Corp., an Akron-based former subsidiary ofFirstEnergy Corp.
Akron company sees growth potential in clean energy power transmission - One day after announcing a costly deal with the U.S. Justice Department, FirstEnergy Corp. moved Friday to put distance between the Akron electric utility and the turmoil caused by its lobbying efforts with former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder.In the deferred prosecution agreement signed Wednesday and made public Thursday, FirstEnergy agreed to pay a $230 million penalty that cannot be recovered in rates charged to customer or tax deductions In return, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Ohio agreed not to prosecute the company on a single count of conspiracy to commit honest services wire fraud. Over the three years of the agreement, the company must continue corporate changes made to its lobbying and ethics practices and continue cooperation with federal authorities.Just hours after announcing the deal, the company released its second quarter earnings results Thursday, reporting second-quarter earnings of $58 million on revenue of $2.62 billion.On Friday morning, FirstEnergy President and CEO Steve Strah held a conference call with analysts to discuss the company’s business prospects after its tussle with the Justice Department over its relationship with Householder and House Bill 6 provisions that affect nuclear power plants it no longer owns.Strah continued to stress the company’s fidelity to its agreement with the District Attorney’s Office and spoke about opportunities with expected federal infrastructure legislation.“The conduct that took place at our company was wrong and unacceptable,” Strah said, repeating what he had told employees Thursday. “Our board, the management team and the entire FirstEnergy organization have done extensive work and are committed to make the necessary changes to move on from this.”Strah said the company held a compliance town hall with employees in May to discuss compliance and ethics issues. He said the company will hold another town hall next week to introduce an updated mission statement stressing integrity as a “cornerstone of FirstEnergy’s identity and business strategies.”
FirstEnergy reevaluates denial of ratepayer funds in bribe (AP) — Utility giant FirstEnergy Corp. says it’s reevaluating previous denials that the company used customer money to secretly fund a $60 million bribery scheme. The Akron-based company filed notice with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio on Friday saying its deferred prosecution agreement with the U.S. Justice Department requires a re-examination of those denials that ratepayers funded the scheme to win legislative approval in 2019 for a $1 billion bailout for two unprofitable nuclear power plants it owned at the time. FirstEnergy agreed last week to pay a $230 million penalty to potentially avoid criminal prosecution.
Former FirstEnergy CEO defends actions after Ohio firm settles bribery charges (Reuters) - FirstEnergy Corp's FE.N former CEO Chuck Jones, who was fired in October in connection with a bribery scandal, on Friday defended his actions at the company, a day after it agreed to pay $230 million to settle U.S. government charges in the case. The Ohio-based energy company on Thursday admitted it paid millions of dollars to state officials to pursue legislation on nuclear subsidies and other policies that would benefit it. According to a statement sent on his behalf by a spokesman, Jones "did not engage in any unlawful activity" and is "very disappointed that FirstEnergy would falsely implicate so many hard working and dedicated employees in wrongdoing who were committed to implementing the Board's stated goals." Officials at FirstEnergy would not comment on Jones' remarks. Others affected by the scandal include Larry Householder, the former speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives, who was arrested by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation in July 2020, and Samuel Randazzo, who resigned as chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio in November 2020 after the FBI searched his home. Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, who appointed Randazzo in 2019, said in a statement on Thursday: "If ... Sam Randazzo committed acts to improperly benefit FirstEnergy, his motives were not known by me or my staff." The Ohio nuclear plants - Perry and Davis-Besse - at the center of the scandal are still in service. Those plants are now owned by Energy Harbor, the company created from FirstEnergy Solutions, a bankrupt unit of FirstEnergy, which threatened to close the reactors unless the state provided financial support. The Ohio Legislature passed a bill in 2019 that would pay Energy Harbor about $1 billion over six years to keep the money-losing reactors in service. The legislature revoked the bill in 2021. Energy Harbor has said it hopes the federal government would provide some assistance to financially distressed nuclear plants. Congress is considering such bills. UPDATE 1-FirstEnergy agrees to pay $230 mln to settle U.S. bribery charges U.S. Democrats launch bill allowing existing nuclear plants tax credit Ohio legislature sends bill revoking nuclear power subsidy to governor (Reporting by Scott DiSavino Editing by Sonya Hepinstall) ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)) The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
FirstEnergy said it bribed a regulator for $4.3 million. Here’s how it worked. - FirstEnergy admitted in court documents last week it paid the state’s top utility regulator $4.3 million to use his perch to save the company hundreds of millions via friendly administrative rulings.The company’s allegation against Sam Randazzo, former chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, came in a deferred prosecution agreement with the U.S. Attorney’s office. FirstEnergy agreed to pay a $230 million criminal penalty and admit to a lengthy statement of facts about its conduct. If FirstEnergy meets the terms of the agreement and cooperates with prosecutors, then a charge of honest services wire fraud against the company is dropped.Last summer, prosecutors accused then-House Speaker Larry Householder, R-Glenford, of secretly controlling a nonprofit wielding $61 million from FirstEnergy, and spending it to bankroll his campaign to become speaker and pass House Bill 6 — a massive bailout worth an estimated $1.3 billion to FirstEnergy, and millions to other utilities in the state. Householder has pleaded not guilty, though two allies in the alleged scheme pleaded guilty to racketeering last fall.The statement of facts, signed by FirstEnergy CEO Steven Strah and two assistant U.S. Attorneys, shows how enmeshed Randazzo’s alleged conduct as a regulator was with House Bill 6It states that Randazzo helped draft a “decoupling” provision in HB 6 that made FirstEnergy “somewhat recession proof,” according to its former CEO. It forced ratepayers to guarantee its unusually high 2018 revenue numbers, and pay the difference if they fell below that 2018 baseline.That provision, worth an estimated $355 million to FirstEnergy in “unearned profit” over five years, was set to expire when FirstEnergy underwent a PUCO-ordered rate review case in 2024.Randazzo’s job, according to FirstEnergy, was to scrap any requirement that FirstEnergy undergo a rate review, thus protecting one of its windfalls of cash established in HB 6.
DeWine says he didn’t know about alleged $4.3m bribe of utility regulator he appointed - Gov. Mike DeWine distanced himself Monday from a utility regulator he appointed who was accused last week of accepting millions in bribes from FirstEnergy Corp.FirstEnergy said in a court filing last week that it paid Randazzo $22 million in consulting fees in the decade leading up to his appointment as chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio.This includes a $4.3 million payment, sent shortly before DeWine appointed Randazzo in early 2019, to hand down rulings favorable to the company. The company was under no legal obligation to make the payment, the court filing states.Randazzo has not been charged with a crime. DeWine, answering questions on the filing for the first time, said while he didn’t know about the $4.3 million payment, “everybody” knew that Randazzo worked for FirstEnergy during the appointment process.“I knew he worked for FirstEnergy,” DeWine said. “What I knew was the relationship was over with, that would have been the important thing to me. Whether or not it had been six months or whatever period of time it had been. Everybody knew Sam Randazzo had worked for FirstEnergy, so it wasn’t an issue. My understanding was that relationship had been terminated.”In 2019, the PUCO — with Randazzo at the helm — issued an order reversing a requirement that FirstEnergy undergo a rate review in 2024, which would entail the company opening its books to regulators.Days before he entered the order, a FirstEnergy executive said to another company executive in a text message Randazzo was going to make the rate review “go away,” according to the court filing. The executives saw the rate review as a threat to future revenues. One day after the PUCO issued the order, “Executive 1,” thanked Randazzo via text message, attaching an image showing the company’s stock price increasing.Despite admitting knowledge of Randazzo’s work history with FirstEnergy, DeWine brushed aside a question about why he would appoint someone with known financial ties to a utility company to regulate that company. ‘He worked for them,’” DeWine said. “He did work for them and he was paid for that. We knew that, everybody knew that. So there’s no new information.”
DeWine reaffirms support for aides, despite their roles in scandal-tainted legislation - One staffer waited weeks — and until after an FBI raid — to inform Gov. Mike DeWine that FirstEnergy had paid Sam Randazzo a massive sum just weeks before DeWine nominated Randazzo to be Ohio’s top utility regulator. Another staffer, while still a FirstEnergy lobbyist, founded a dark-money group that would funnel tens of millions of utility dollars into an effort to pass a $1.3 billion package that benefitted FirstEnergy, a successor company and other Ohio utilities. The staffer then became DeWine’s legislative affairs director and worked to pass the bailout bill his boss would sign — and that federal prosecutors would later say was“likely the largest bribery and money-laundering scheme ever in the state of Ohio.”But despite the growing scandal, DeWine’s spokesman on Tuesday said both staffers continue to enjoy the governor’s support.“Absolutely,” said Press Secretary Dan Tierney, explaining that it’s important to remember that much less was known when news of the scandal broke last summer. “It’s always difficult for anybody to keep track of what was known then versus what’s being alleged now.”Those allegations are in a deferred prosecution agreement FirstEnergy last week entered into with federal authorities. The company agreed to pay out $230 million and it copped to at least some of its actions in the scandal.Among them, it admitted paying $22 million over the years to entities controlled by Randazzo — including $4.3 million on Jan. 2, 2019. DeWine would nominate Randazzo to be chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Ohio on Feb. 4, 2019.Randazzo hasn’t been charged, but the deferred prosecution agreement made the last FirstEnergy payment sound like a quid pro quo.
Gov. DeWine doesn't seem interested in holding staff and allies accountable in bribery scandal - Nothing to see here. Remain calm. All is well. No big deal. Everybody knew.That appears to be Gov. Mike DeWine’s reaction to the public finding out he appointed a FirstEnergy consultant to regulate utilities in Ohio the company now admits paying $4.3 million to do their bidding.As the fallout from the $61 million House Bill 6 political bribery scandal continues, DeWine’s inner circle is increasingly becoming ensnared in the scheme that awarded the energy company a $1.3 billion ratepayer-funded bailout signed by DeWine.FirstEnergy said in a court filing last week that it paid Sam Randazzo $22 million in consulting fees in the decade leading up to his appointment by DeWine as chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, including the $4.3 million payment shortly before his appointment to hand down rulings favorable to the company.Does that sound bad to you? It sounds pretty bad to me. It sounds like a utility company was paying off its regulator and getting sweetheart treatment from public officials at the expense of its customers. This is called regulatory capture.It apparently doesn’t sound bad to DeWine, who had this to say: “He did work for them and he was paid for that. We knew that, everybody knew that. So there’s no new information.”The governor didn’t even pretend to be outraged. Would you be outraged if the person you appointed to protect the public’s interest instead took money from the industry he was appointed to regulate and did them favors at the public’s expense? I would.DeWine’s former Chief of Staff Laurel Dawson never listed FirstEnergy as a lobbying client, but her husband Mike Dawson lobbied for FirstEnergy from 2011 to 2013 and consulted for them at least as recently as 2020. We found out this week that Laurel Dawson, who now serves as counselor to the governor, learned of the $4.3 million FirstEnergy payment to Randazzo in October 2020, but apparently didn’t tell the governor about it until the FBI was raiding Randazzo’s home that November. Randazzo resigned after the raid.Would you be upset if your chief of staff knew your appointment to regulate utility companies had been bought by a utility company and decided not to tell you until the FBI was raiding his home? I would. DeWine doesn’t seem to mind.What if this same chief of staff as well as your lieutenant governor — Jon Husted — helped recruit this appointment in the first place, and put your administration in this compromised position? Would you be upset? I would. DeWine apparently isn’t.What of DeWine’s legislative affairs director Dan McCarthy? McCarthy worked previously as a FirstEnergy lobbyist and founded a dark money group called Partners for Progress that FirstEnergy has admitted funneling money through, including to another dark money group called Generation Now allegedly controlled by indicted former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder. Generation Now has pleaded guilty in the bribery scandal.
DeWine challenger seeks state query of FirstEnergy contributions | The Blade — Jim Renacci, the former congressman trying to flank Gov. Mike DeWine from the right in next year's primary, called Tuesday for the state auditor to investigate campaign contributions from utility giant FirstEnergy Corp. “I'm calling on State Auditor Keith Faber to conduct a full investigation of the money the governor received from this pay-to-play scandal directly and indirectly,” Mr. Renacci told The Blade. “It's a very complicated issue,” he said. “Dollars were funneled through multiple entities, including his largest contributor, the Ohio Republican Party. All entities need to be investigated to get a complete total of how much was received, and then he should pay all of it back, not just a portion of it.” Last week the Akron-based utility agreed to pay a $230 million penalty in hopes of avoiding an honest services wire fraud conviction in connection with a $61 million bribery scheme. The filing revealed that the federal investigation has drawn closer to Mr. DeWine's office. In particular, it has focused on former utility lobbyist Sam Randazzo, the governor's appointed chairman of the powerful Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. DeWine campaign manager Brenton Temple said the campaign recently cut a check to the Ohio Alliance of Boys and Girls Clubs for $130,473, the equivalent of contributions received by FirstEnergy's political action committee and employees dating back to January, 2015. This was the net amount of FirstEnergy-related contributions received after other contributions in excess of legal limits had to be returned when the then separate gubernatorial campaign committees of Mr. DeWine and now Lt. Gov. Jon Husted were merged into one, Mr. Temple said. But Mr. Renacci said this money should be returned directly to FirstEnergy with a requirement that it be returned to its customers. “Keep in mind that this is public utility money,” he said. “This is taxpayer money. Keith Faber's office investigates taxpayer money, so it's the perfect place.” As part of its deal with the U.S. Attorney's office, FirstEnergy said it sought to bribe then Ohio Speaker Larry Householder to enact a law providing for a $1 billion bailout of two nuclear power plants then owned by a subsidiary, a law signed by Mr. DeWine. It also said it pushed for Mr. Randazzo's appointment as PUCO chairman and paid the former consultant $4.3 million to avoid a new rate case that would have dealt a financial blow to company profits.
Opinion: What would DeWine do about 'shameful' environmental reality impacting Ohioans? - The Columbus Dispatch - Beverly Reed -Would Gov. Mike DeWine have said anything about Austin Master Services during the recent grand re-opening of East Ohio Regional Hospital if he knew how absurdly close the radioactive oil and gas waste processing facility is to the Martins Ferry hospital? If DeWine had read in the Columbus Dispatch that Austin Masterprocesses oil and gas drill cuttings and filter socks, some of which are so highly radioactive that they must be sent to Utah because no local landfill can accept the waste, and it is just 2,500 feet from the hospital he was touting, and not to mention Martins Ferry high school’s football field just down the street as well, would he have anything to say? What if he knew that Austin Master operates on top of the aquifer that feeds Martins Ferry’s drinking water wells, and is only a few hundred feet from the water plant? What if he would’ve read in the article that his Ohio Department of Natural Resources has yet to write rules on such facilities, leading to no enforcement?ODNR’s own reports reveal that Austin Master is potentially contaminating the community with radioactive material because of poor and negligent operations, and they just recently decided to write draft rules on these facilities, eight years after they were ordered to do so by Ohio lawmakers, and those rules were published the day after the Dispatch article came out.Politics are a funny thing when you can be touting a facility for votes while just down the road you have a frack pad next door to a daycare center (St. Clairsville), an injection well being drilled right along a busy state route, a major highway, 2 colleges, and many county buildings (Omni).There is another injection well planned for the backyard of Union Local High School (TrooClean), more than 700 permitted frack pads in the same county (the most in Ohio), a petrochemical plastics plant proposed for the banks of a drinking water source and in a flood plain (PTTGC), and a radioactive waste facility next to a hospital and football field. Maybe if DeWine also read the Frackalachia report by the Ohio River Valley Institute, he would see that during the fracking “boom," Appalachian Ohio actually saw a decrease in population and jobs, and the money by and large did not stay in the area.
Editorial: How Ohio can rebuild public trust after corruption scandal -- Beacon Journal - Not so quick, FirstEnergy. Your contrition and $230 million plea dealmight satisfy shareholders, but it's far from the end of your embarrassing saga and the need for significant political reforms in Ohio. The Akron-based utility that spans five states formally admitted Thursday to bribing state leaders to pad its bottom line at the expense of all Ohio ratepayers. The company agreed to pay a $230 million fine, with $115 million earmarked for helping people pay their utility bills. Ratepayers can't be assessed the cost. Shareholder lawsuits bolstered by Thursday's criminal admissions and possible Securities and Exchange Commission and Public Utilities Commission of Ohio enforcement actions still cloud FirstEnergy's future. Its reputation remains tarnished by the outright greed of its former leaders in their pursuit of a $1 billion taxpayer bailout for two nuclear plants and special "decoupling fees" through House Bill 6 and cancellation of a scheduled 2024 PUCO review that could have reduced rates. Text messages from those executives paint a disturbing picture of how they used millions of dollars to purchase the influence of indicted former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, a Republican, andformer PUCO Chairman Sam Randazzo, who resigned last year after his house was raided by the FBI.There's no reasonable doubt that FirstEnergy was running the Ohio Statehouse for years only to be thwarted by a tip federal prosecutors turned into our state's largest public corruption case. They came very close to stealing your money. Now, Ohioans need to demand additional personal accountability and real changes to ensure politicians resist the temptation to put corporate and personal interests ahead of the people who elect them.
- More people should be prosecuted in corruption case. First, it's clear that additional people should be prosecuted for apparent corruption. Allowing the company to accept a negotiated prosecution without holding individuals accountable would send a horrible message to corporate America. We’re confident this conduct is not protected by the First Amendment as Householder claims. Prosecutors declined on Thursday to comment on additional prosecutions.
- More disclosure needed for funds influencing state elections. Next, Ohio law must be changed to require more disclosure for all spending that influences Ohio elections and public issues. FirstEnergy Corp. and FirstEnergy Solutions, now called Energy Harbor, donated $59 million to Generation Now, a 501(c)(4) dark money group controlled by Householder. FirstEnergy used its own group, called Partners for Progress, to fund Generation Now. The secret funding fueled Householder's return to the speakership, his push for HB 6 and eventually a revolting and xenophobic campaign to thwart a referendum. While federal law and the Supreme Court's unfortunate Citizens United ruling make these so-called social welfare groups and contributions legal, there's nothing stopping Ohio from demanding more transparency in all political ads. Let's require all advertising campaigns to publicly release top funders, including the original sources, to avoid donation-hiding schemes.
- PUCO must complete review of FirstEnergy rates.. Third, the PUCO must keep its commitment to a 2024 review of FirstEnergy's rates. Randazzo is accused of killing the review not long after taking PUCO’s helm and accepting $4.3 million from FirstEnergy. The public deserves a full, transparent review of rates as PUCO has agreed to do in a Dec. 30 decision.
- Ohio energy policy needs overhaul. Finally, Ohio needs a complete overhaul of its energy policy, which has been further damaged by Senate Bill 52, which, surprisingly, Gov. Mike DeWine signed this month. With global warming concerns growing, this law gives local authorities power to stop wind and solar power generation proposals, while denying the same rights for nuclear, oil and gas projects such as pipelines.
Union Co. farmer sues ODA over pipeline on preserved farmland -A Union County farmer is suing the Ohio Department of Agriculture and Columbia Gas of Ohio over a natural gas pipeline that is set to go through preserved farmland. Attorneys for the Bailey family filed two lawsuits July 12 to force the department of agriculture to defend its land from the pipeline and to stop Columbia Gas of Ohio from moving forward with eminent domain proceedings. The first lawsuit claims the Ohio Department of Agriculture is not enforcing the terms of the agriculture easement, which prohibits any industrial activity from taking place on the farm, like installing a utility line, unless it is strictly for the benefit of the farm. Don Bailey is the successor trustee for the Arno Renner Trust. Renner was Bailey’s uncle, and he donated the agricultural easement to his 231-acre farm in 2003 to the department of agriculture, through its farmland preservation program. Columbia Gas of Ohio announced plans in late 2019 to put a 12-inch gas distribution line through the Baileys’ fields. The Marysville Connector Pipeline Project would stretch nearly 5 miles to feed the industrial park near the farm, as well as a nearby residential development. Instead of defending the terms of the easement, the Ohio Department of Agriculture recused itself from the Ohio Power Siting Board decision on the pipeline in order to prevent the “perception of impropriety.” The pipeline was approved in August 2020. In two prior cases, the state went to bat for the Bailey farm when it faced the threat of utility development. In 2005, the city of Marysville wanted to put a 72-inch sanitary sewer line through the farm. The state director of agriculture at the time, Fred Dailey, wrote a letter to the mayor of Marysville asking if the line could be rerouted, and it was. The second time was in 2008, when a private developer wanted to put a 36-inch water line through the farm. In that case, then Ohio Attorney General Nancy Rogers issued an opinion that the easement language prevented the construction of such a line because the “proposed water line would not solely serve the Bailey property.” The Ohio Department of Agriculture has taken a different approach to the easement in the case of the Marysville Connector Pipeline. It focused on how the pipeline would impact the agricultural use of the property, and it found that the agricultural use of the farm would not be irreparably harmed by the pipeline.M
Feds and states not taking radioactivity from fracking seriously, environmental group says - Ohio Capital Journal -- Fracking might be an economic boon to some landowners in depressed sections of Eastern Ohio, Western Pennsylvania and much of West Virginia. But federal and state officials are doing little to protect citizens from the radiation hazards posed by the process, a new report says. For example, a solution containing substances such as Radium-226 in concentrations 300 times federal drinking water standards is spread on Ohio roads and there are no federal or state regulations to stop the practice, the report by the Natural Resources Defence Council says. After their application to icy roads, it’s not hard to see how toxic substances can run off into streams. From there, who knows?Titled “A Hot Fracking Mess: How the Lack of Regulation of Oil and Gas Production Leads to Radioactive Waste in Our Water, Air, and Communities,” the report details the many ways that fracking, or “hydraulic fracturing,” produces toxins.The practice of using water and chemicals to blast through rock formations to get to previously inaccessible fossil fuels is not completely negative from an environmental standpoint. It’s made cleaner-burning natural gas a cheaper energy source than coal and some environmentalists have praised it as a bridge fuel while cleaner alternatives are developed in the race against global warming. But, the NRDC report notes, state and federal regulators have taken a pass on protecting against fracking’s potential ill-effects — particularly for people living near fracking pads.“Unfortunately, without adequate regulations, there is scant industry monitoring data or information about violations, so the full scope of health impacts facing nearby residents or workers from (toxic substance) exposure remains unclear,” it says.A number of radioactive elements are naturally present in the Earth, often locked far down where they don’t threaten human health. But fracking can blast known toxins such as radium, lead and polonium out of rock formations. Then they can be brought back to the surface in drill cuttings, wastewater and contaminated pipes.It also can produce toxic air, Inside Climate News reported in 2014.But regulators have seemed to go out of their way to avoid tracking toxic waste — even from conventional drilling long before the fracking revolution, the NRDC report says.
Under “Chief's Orders” Ohio Operates a Radioactive Industry Off The Record - Everyone knows that oil and gas wells produce oil and natural gas. But few people understand that these wells also produce radioactive material that is being disposed of in communities alongside household trash and making its way into rivers used for drinking water and recreation. The oil and gas industry consistently claims that the levels of radioactivity in its waste and byproducts are safe – but a growing body of data proves otherwise. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) defines the radioactive portion of this waste as TENORM (technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive material), and in communities across shale plays like Ohio, TENORM is piling up in watersheds. While Ohio has strict regulations governing radioactive waste that come across its borders — the O.R.C. 3734.02 — the rules are not actually enforced. The state code doesn’t require the kind of extensive testing necessary to adequately measure radioactivity in TENORM waste.Next door in Pennsylvania, which exports massive volumes of oil and gas waste to Ohio, the same shale basins — i.e., the Marcellus and Utica Shales — are also being exploited. But unlike Ohio, Pennsylvania is at least gathering some data. In 2016, the commonwealth released a TENORM study on fracking’s oil and gas waste that has begun to shed light on the dangerous game being played with radioactive material in Ohio. In fact, one attorney interviewed for this series stated – “The state is acting illegally.”After 15 months of reporting and research, this three-part series on radioactive material from the oil and gas industry is Public Herald’s latest state-wide investigation of regulatory failure in and around the fracking industry, this time focusing on Ohio: Welcome to Part One.
Investigation Uncovers Ohio Is “Illegally” Building Radioactive Mountains, Affecting 26 Waterways - Part 2 of Ohio TENORM Mountains 3-part series. Read Part 1. Get the story in print through one of seven Ohio Ogden papers, starting front-page at Sandusky Register. Never before in the history of America has the country undertaken an experiment like what’s happening with radioactive material from oil and gas fracking.Everyone knows that oil and gas wells produce oil and natural gas. But few people understand that these wells also produce radioactive waste, or that it’s being disposed of in communities alongside household trash.The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) defines the radioactive portion of this waste as TENORM (technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive material), and in communities across shale plays like Ohio, TENORM is piling up alongside watersheds. TENORM Mountains MAP: Who’s Storing & Treating Radioactive Waste From FrackingRepublic Services Carbon Limestone Landfill is one of the eight landfills in Ohiocurrently receiving waste from unconventional oil and gas operations, according to information acquired by Public Herald from the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (OEPA).In Ohio, TENORM disposal at landfills falls under O.R.C. 3734.02, which states that a solid waste facility can not accept or transfer TENORM if it contains radium-226, radium-228, or any combination of the two at more than 5 picocuries per gram (pCi/g) over the natural background.It’s worth repeating that this code puts the limit of TENORM coming into or out of landfills at 5 pCi/g. Not much testing has been done on TENORM waste in Ohio, but much of the TENORM waste arriving at Ohio landfills is from the Marcellus Shale — the same shale waste that has been tested in a 2016 Pennsylvania TENORM study. In that study, radium levels from fracking waste in the Marcellus were detected as high as 13 pCi/g, more than 2.5 times greater than the Ohio code permits. The average load for combined radium reported in the study from 18 samples was 5.847 pCi/g, again exceeding the Ohio code of 5 pCi/g.But even though Ohio’s TENORM code places a strict standard on radioactive waste disposal, the state hasn’t produced documentation to Public Herald of measurement and enforcement for radium at landfills.“It is an extremely, overwhelmingly strong bet that the waste and disposal practices in Ohio are seeing a great deal of material that exceeds the limits,” said Ohio attorney Terry Lodge. “The state is acting illegally.”
Debrosse Memorial Report: Steep Decline in 2020 Ohio O&G Production --In June the Ohio Oil & Gas Association (OOGA) held its 74th Annual Winter Meeting in Columbus. Yeah, you read that right. The Winter Meeting was moved to June this year due to COVID. As with previous annual OOGA meetings, one of the speakers was Martin Shumway, technical director at Locus Bio-Energy Solutions. Shumway shared details from the latest DeBrosse Memorial Report (full copy below). What does the report show for 2020? Ohio oil and natural gas production both experienced steep declines last year. Oil production was down 16% from 2019, and natural gas production was down 10% from 2019. Even though the production news for 2020 is negative, this report is jam-packed with terrific, very useful information about Ohio’s shale industry.For example, there were 266 oil and gas wells completed last year in Ohio, of which 216 (81%) were Utica wells. Jefferson County dethroned Belmont County in 2020 for the most wells drilled (61). And once again, for the second year in a row, Ascent Resources (formerly American Energy Partners) drilled the most wells in Ohio last year (116 wells), which is more than the 104 it drilled in 2019.The DeBrosse Memorial Report (embedded below) is full of Top 10 this and Top 12 that, sliced and diced in multiple ways. You’ll love it if you want to know more about the Utica and O&G in general in Ohio.A few insights into the numbers from our friends at NGI: Completion activity also fell as operators deferred activity during the virus-induced slump. OOGA’s report said there were 267 completions in 2020, down 34% from 2019. Roughly 80% of all completions were for horizontal wells Jefferson, Belmont, Monroe, Harrison and Guernsey counties accounted for 80% of all completions and wells drilled in the state last year.Meanwhile, Ascent Resources Corp., Encino Energy LLC and an affiliate of Southwestern Energy Co. were the top three most active operators. They accounted for nearly 70% of all wells drilled in the state during 2020.The number of producers operating in Ohio has continued to decline, going from 41 in 2019 to 31 in 2020, according to the report. Before the Utica land rush got underway in 2008, there were more than 180 exploration and production companies working in the state, but that number has declined every year since as assets in the basin have been consolidated by dominant operators.* The full 2020 DeBrosse Memorial Report:
PennEnergy to install well on Ekastown Road in Buffalo Township --PennEnergy will be installing a well site in Buffalo Township after gaining approval from township officials. Construction at the site, located at 765 Ekastown Road, is slated to begin later this summer, said Amanda Peterson, a stakeholder relations manager with PennEnergy. Some township residents have voiced concerns on social media about the well site. One resident urged people living nearby to voice concerns about the site’s potential impact on the community to local officials, though the project has already been approved. Though residents on social media have claimed that the township and the energy company failed to provide the public with information on the potential project or a forum to voice their questions and concerns, Buffalo Township Secretary and Treasurer Janice Zubrin said officials did go through proper process before approving the well. PennEnergy submitted a conditional use request for oil and gas development in late April 2020, she said. The proposal was then reviewed by the township engineer, planning commission and board of supervisors. Advertising for a public hearing on the topic ran in the Butler Eagle newspaper on two separate dates prior to the public hearing on June 9. The board of supervisors approved the conditional use application on the same date, Zubrin said.
Lawmaker asks state to turn down energy company's request to draw water from Big Sewickley Creek for fracking --A lawmaker has asked Pennsylvania’s top environmental official to turn down a plan by PennEnergy Resources to draw as much as 3 million gallons of water a day from Big Sewickley Creek and one of its tributaries for natural gas drilling. Members of the Big Sewickley Creek Watershed Association also have raised concerns that drawing so much water from the creek could be harmful to wildlife because the creek regularly experiences low levels during dry periods. “One of these locations where water will be pulled includes the famous swimming hole on Cooney Hollow Road,” the association wrote in social media posts asking residents to contact public officials to voice their opinions on the proposal. “Any water withdrawals from the creek will permanently affect the existing habitat due to low flow during summer drought, leading to a need for stream restoration actions. If the flow is altered much more, it may affect the trout stocking and recreation permanently.” Penn Energy sent letters to officials in Economy Borough in Beaver County on June 28, informing them of the plan to draw 2 million gallons of water from Big Sewickley Creek each day and 1 million gallons a day from its North Fork tributary. The water is used for hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” a technique used to extract oil and gas from bedrock by injecting a high-pressure mixture of water, sand or gravel and chemicals. In response to Penn Energy’s notification to the borough, state Rep. Rob Matzie, D-16th, asked state DEP Secretary Patrick McDonnell not to approve the plan. Matzie wrote that while he supports natural gas drilling, he can’t back PennEnergy’s proposal. “Let me be clear. I am on record as supporting natural gas extraction. I do not support a ban,” Matzie wrote. “But I have also fought for and voted against measures that weaken regulations and remove local input and control on these permit requests. “In most cases, I believe we can have energy extraction and maintain a clean, healthy environment. I do not believe this is one of those cases.
DEP to require landfills to test for radioactivity from fracking waste --The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection said it will now require all landfills that take solid fracking waste to test their leachate, or liquid waste, for radioactive materials common in oil and gas waste. Landfills often send leachate, a liquid waste formed from rainwater that seeps through piles of waste, to treatment plants. They test it for dozens of potential pollutants. But they’ve never had to test it for radium, a radioactive material common in oil and gas waste. “We take seriously our responsibility and duty as an environmental steward,” Gov. Tom Wolf said in a statement. “This additional requirement will improve public confidence that public drinking water and our precious natural resources are being appropriately protected. The issue of radioactivity in landfill leachate garnered public attention in 2019. At the time, a Fayette County waste treatment plant sued to have a nearby landfill stop sending it leachate after the treatment plant found high amounts of oil and gas contaminants in the liquid waste. The DEP said in the tests it ran on the leachate at that landfill and others, radium levels were below federal action levels. The tests “did not identify significant differences in radium levels between landfills that accept oil and gas waste compared to those that do not,” the DEP said in a statement Monday. “Testing results in all cases were lower than effluent limits for (radium) established by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for facilities under its jurisdiction.”But environmental groups and some scientists have worried the liquid waste could expose drinking water supplies to contamination. According to the EPA, “chronic exposure to high levels of radium can result in an increased incidence of bone, liver or breast cancer.”In 2020, state records show oil and gas drillers sent 244,000 tons of drill cuttings to landfills. Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who issued a grand jury report last year slamming the DEP for failing to protect the public from the health effects of fracking, hailed the decision. “Pennsylvanians living next to landfills and in the shadow of fracking wells have a constitutional right to clean air and pure water, and the improved monitoring and promised analysis by DEP is a step in the right direction,” Shapiro said. Amy Mall, a senior advocate with the Natural Resources Defense Council, which recently released a report calling for more regulation of radioactive waste from the fracking industry, also praised the decision. But in an email she also called on the state to do more “to protect workers and nearby residents from radioactive waste generated by oil and gas production.”
PA DEP to Require Radium Tests at Landfills Accepting Drill Cuttings - Yesterday PA Gov. Tom Wolf grabbed some headlines by having his Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) announce they will “soon” begin to require *all* landfills in the state to test leachate (water with nasty stuff in it that comes from landfills) for radioactivity. The Wolf DEP press release takes great pains to point out the new testing includes landfills “that accept unconventional oil and gas waste.” Which is the purpose of the announcement. To plant the seed that maybe, just maybe, drill cuttings are causing folks to glow in the dark. Radiation poisoning. Yet buried in the press release is this statement about a previous study of leachate from PA landfills with and without drill cuttings…“The study did not identify significant differences in radium levels between landfills that accept oil and gas waste compared to those that do not. Testing results in all cases were lower than effluent limits for radium-226 and radium-228 established by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for facilities under its jurisdiction.” So even though there’s no proof of any problems, the state will now require quarterly testing for radioactivity from landfills anyway. Fine. Whatever floats the DEP’s boat. If they want extra testing each quarter, let them have it. We (as an industry) have nothing to hide. We want to know if there are issues so we can address them. Here’s the DEP announcement from yesterday: In an effort to further protect Pennsylvania’s waterways and drinking water, the Wolf Administration announced today that it will soon require all Pennsylvania landfills – including those that accept unconventional oil and gas waste – to conduct quarterly testing of leachate for radiological contaminants.Landfills are currently required to test leachate – or liquid generated during waste decomposition – for various contaminants before this liquid is either treated by an on-site leachate treatment facility or sent to wastewater treatment facilities. This additional step of including radium in the list of contaminants to be measured will allow the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to evaluate the presence of radium in landfills.“We take seriously our responsibility and duty as an environmental steward,” said Gov. Tom Wolf. “This additional requirement will improve public confidence that public drinking water and our precious natural resources are being appropriately protected.” DEP currently identifies contaminants in leachate through reports sent from landfills on a quarterly basis. DEP has begun the process of updating its reporting document to include radium-226 and radium-228, which will be implemented later this year. All landfills, including those that accept oil and gas wastes, will be required to test for these radiological contaminants.
Pa. Supreme Court: Money from state-forest drilling cannot prop up state budget --The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that state officials cannot transfer money from the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources’ Oil and Gas Fund — derived from natural gas drilling on state forest land — to the state’s general fund to help balance the annual budget.The PA Environmental Defense Foundation brought the lawsuit, and was appealing a 2020 Commonwealth Court decision, which paved the way for the diversion of more than $110 million from the Oil and Gas Fund between 2017 and 2019, to pay operating expenses rather than using it for conservation purposes.John Childe, attorney for the foundation, said the court’s opinion “affirms our belief that all funds from the oil and gas leases, including the royalties, bonus and rental payments, are part of the public trust, and must be used to conserve and maintain the public natural resources, including our state forest.”The foundation has pushed back against the transfers for the past dozen years.The Supreme Court’s opinion does not mean the money must be paid back; only that it must be used for conservation purposes going forward.Supreme Court justices found the Commonwealth Court’s 2020 ruling was at odds with its own 2017 ruling on the same issue, when foundation members challenged the transfer of $594 million from the fund between 2008-16. Foundation officials argued that the state’s Environmental Rights Amendment does not permit money from the Oil and Gas Fund to be used for general budgetary matters. Unconstitutional appropriations from the fund between 2017-19 total more than $234 million.
Cabot, Southwestern See Natural Gas Prices Impacted by Appalachian Pipeline Constraints - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. and Southwestern Energy Co. were the latest Appalachian operators to report weak price realizations in the second quarter, when pipeline constraints widened basis differentials in the Northeast. U.S. benchmark prices climbed during the period and have continued to move higher since, creating an even bigger gap with local prices in Appalachia, where pipeline maintenance and outages have suppressed returns. Cabot increased its differential guidance for the year, but sees an improving outlook. “We are optimistic about a strong improvement in local pricing in the second half of the year, driven by our expectations for continued strength in regional gas demand, flat production profiles across the Appalachian Basin and a significant reduction in storage levels, which are currently 17% below 2020 levels and 8% below the five-year average,” said Cabot CEO Dan Dinges. Southwestern reported a steep loss on unsettled derivatives. Other Appalachian operators, such as EQT Corp. and Range Resources Corp. have also been dented this earnings season by questions over their hedging strategies. EQT reported a loss on its hedge position, while both Range and EQT have locked in prices below current market levels to protect against volatility in the Northeast. Roughly 2 Bcf/d of excess transportation capacity currently exists in the Appalachian Basin, according to East Daley Capital Inc. That leaves little wiggle room when pipelines are squeezed by unplanned events.Appalachian takeaway did get a lift Thursday, when Texas Eastern Transmission Co. said it received approval to restart operations on a portion of its 30-inch system, which has been offline since May. Southwestern CEO Bill Way said the company’s acquisition of Haynesville Shale pure-play Indigo Natural Resources LLC is on track to close by year’s end, with a shareholder vote scheduled for Aug. 27. The deal would give the company access to the Gulf Coast and get it closer to booming liquefied natural gas export demand. It would also limit its price exposure in the Northeast.
EQT Reshaping Strategy for Era of 'Sustainable Shale' --EQT Corp. CEO Toby Rice said Thursday the largest natural gas producer in the United States is positioning itself for a “new era of sustainable shale,” further shaping its strategy to evolve into a lower carbon future. “As the largest producer of natural gas in the U.S., we’re able to forge new paths and open new markets to achieve sustainable growth,” Rice said. “This affords us the ability to pursue meaningful opportunities that smaller peers cannot.” The board has approved $75 million to explore new venture opportunities, Rice told analysts during a call to discuss second quarter results. “This seed capital allows us to initiate several pilot programs over the next few years” aimed at further cutting emissions. The company is aiming for net-zero Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 2025. It has announced partnerships with Equitable Origin, MiQ and Project Canary to certify that about 4 Bcf/d from more than 200 wells in Pennsylvania is being responsibly produced under third-party environmental standards. CFO David Khani said EQT continues to see demand from both domestic and international buyers for responsibly sourced gas (RSG) as the desire to reduce carbon footprints grows. “We’ve already entered into a couple of RSG contracts with premium pricing,” Khani said. EQT’s position across the Appalachian Basin continues to grow. Rice said that can help to further reduce emissions in the Marcellus and Utica shales as the scale allows it to better execute its operational strategy. EQT completed the acquisition of Alta Resources Development LLC last week, giving it another 300,000 net Marcellus Shale acres and entry to a dry gas stronghold in Northeast Pennsylvania.The company plans to run a maintenance program on the assets. However, it expects total sales volumes to increase by up to 175 Bcfe this year as a result of the acquisition. The company is now guiding for up to 1.875 Tcfe of production this year. It also increased its capital expenditure guidance for the year to an estimated $1.100-1.175 billion from $1.025-1.125 billion.
Cleanup continues after oil spills in waters of New Rochelle Harbor (WABC) -- Cleanup continued Saturday following an oil spill in Westchester County that leaked into a nearby harbor. A Con Edison spokesman says dielectric fluid leaked from a transmission feeder into a manhole on Nautilus Place on Saturday, July 17. Some of the fluid then entered a nearby catch basin on Drake Avenue and then leaked into the waters of New Rochelle Harbor. Members of the U.S. Coast Guard responded to the scene along with the New York City Fire Department and Con Edison. The spokesman says Con Edison clamped the feeder, stopping the leak, and immediately began working to contain and remove the fluid. Video showed crews still working to clean up the spill this weekend. Con Edison says they are using protective booming, absorbent materials and oil skimming equipment to contain and recover the fluid in the harbor.
ConEd Long Island Sound Oil Spill Spoils Glen Island's Return — Earlier this month, elected officials were celebrating Glen Island Park's release back to the community after being taken over by the state as a testing site in the earliest days of the coronavirus pandemic, but the symbolic victory was short-lived. "I am thrilled that Glen Island will be open for the summer. I'm thrilled that families will once again enjoy the cool breeze off the sound and that kids will splash in the water," Westchester County Executive George Latimer said in a July 1 statement announcing the reopening of the county-owned park. A few short days later, neighbors cheered as the last testing tents were finally removed from the park's parking lots and the beach opened to swimmers, but the park was soon pressed into service in response to another crisis. The space has become a staging area for tanks, pumper trucks and cleanup crews. Long stretches of the island park's shoreline are ringed with floating booms and oil absorbing pads. On Sunday, beachgoers were being told not to go in the water. Work crews and boats cleaning the Glen Island waterfront on Sunday (Jeff Edwards | Patch) On July 17, a failure of equipment used by Con Edison caused the release of dielectric fluid, which is used to cool the transmission lines that cross the Long Island Sound. The oil flowed down the street and into the New Rochelle Harbor near Wright Marina across the water from Glen Island. A portion of the spilled oil reached the Long Island Sound at the harbor. Con Edison immediately reported the spill to the New York State Department of Conservation, repaired the line and hired several contractors to clean up the harbor area and land adjacent to the spill, according to state officials. The cleanup includes the use of skimmer boats, vacuum trucks and application of absorbent materials. Glen Island is the staging ground for some of this equipment, including tractor trailers containing booms and supplies, boat trailers and waste roll-off containers for the cleanup effort. Thousands of feet of booms have been deployed on the lower harbor stretch of Glen Island while workers spray down the bulkheads and loose stones used to form the island's shoreline and collect the oil released during this operation, officials say.
Activists sue National Grid and NYC over gas facility in Greenpoint • Brooklyn Paper -Environmental activists have filed a lawsuit to halt construction of a National Grid’s natural gas facility in Greenpoint, claiming the project, which is still undergoing environmental review, is in violation of state environmental law. The suit, filed in Kings County Supreme Court on July 23 by the Sane Energy Project and the Cooper Park Resident Council, claims that the city and state failed to follow their own environmental review process by neglecting to conduct a proper review of the construction project. Specifically, the activists say the city of New York violated the State Environmental Quality Review Act, and name the city, the FDNY, and National Grid as defendants.Because the proper review never took place, the environmentalists allege, the city should have stopped the construction, and the FDNY should never have granted variances for storing highly explosive Liquid Natural Gas trucks on city streets. “This is something that must be stopped and must be stopped immediately,” said Elisha Fye, Vice President of the Cooper Park Residents Council. “I’ve been living in this community since 1953. We’re already impacted in this community with the oil spill that happened. We were stricken with asthma, a pandemic of asthma flooded this community, illnesses, deformities in pregnancies, not to mention the soil is still contaminated to this day.”
TETCO Pipeline Ready to Restore Full Pressure Any Time - In June MDN brought you the news that Enbridge’s Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) pipeline is being flow-restricted by the Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA). Some 40% of the Marcellus/Utica molecules that flow through TETCO’s pipeline to destinations in the southeastern U.S. have disappeared and were predicted to stay that way until the end of September (see TETCO Pipe Throttling 40% of M-U Southbound Gas to Last All Summer). Good news: TETCO is telling customers it’s ready to increase pressure and flows the second PHMSA gives the OK, and there’s no remaining issues to be resolved. A ramp-up to full pressure could come soon–in July or August instead of September.PHMSA ordered the reduction in pressure after TETCO found “an anomaly” during a recent inspection that the agency wants to investigate. Since TETCO has had three explosions in various locations since 2016, it’s probably a good idea to back off on the pressure for now. However, reduced flows mean higher prices at the Henry Hub and (gulp) lower spot prices in the M-U region. We can’t get our gas out to other markets willing to pay more.Earlier this month we told you that some of those flow-restricted molecules are finding their way to Midwestern markets (see M-U Molecules Head to Midwest with TETCO Throttling to Southeast). Still, it will be good to have TETCO operating at full capacity once again, flowing more molecules to the southeastern part of the country. Reuters has the good news that Enbridge is ready to dial up the pressure on TETCO as soon as PHMSA gives the all-clear signal: Enbridge Inc’s Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) unit said it provided all the information federal safety regulators requested and is preparing to increase pressure in its Pennsylvania to Mississippi pipeline as soon regulators approve.TETCO declared a force majeure on May 28 after the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA) required the company to reinstate a 20% pressure restriction on two of three lines (Lines 10 and 15) that make up its 30-inch system between its Kosciusko, Mississippi, and Uniontown, Pennsylvania, compressor stations effective June 1.That reduction cut flows from Appalachia to the Gulf Coast on the 30-inch system at the Owningsville compressor station in Kentucky to an average of 1.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in June and 1.3 bcfd so far in July from an average of 1.9 bcfd in May, according to Refinitiv data.In a notice to customers late Friday, TETCO said: “In order to expeditiously recommence operations at full operating pressure once PHMSA approval is granted, (TETCO) is proactively preparing its … process to allow the system to operate at full operating pressure.”Previously, TETCO said it anticipated the earliest the 30-inch system could return to full pressure was late in the third quarter of 2021.
Pipeline's carbon offsets don't come close to adding up - The Mountain Valley Pipeline continues to try to divert attention from the destructive effects of its project. In a July 12 news release, MVP announced that it would purchase more than $150 million in carbon offsets to make MVP operational emissions carbon neutral for the first 10 years of operation through a methane abatement project at a Southwest Virginia coal mine. A closer look behind the smoke and mirrors reveals the true nature of the carbon offset plan. MVP boasts that methane mitigation projects like their offset plan are cited in the 2021 UN Global Methane Assessment. But the MVP fails to mention that the report states that we shouldn’t be building any new fossil fuel infrastructure — like the MVP. There are many other negative issues the plan would not address. The MVP plan would not offset any operational emissions beyond 10 years. The MVP could be in operation for 50 years. The plan would not offset the downstream combustion of 2 billion cubic feet per day of methane that the MVP would carry. Unless questionable carbon capture practices are employed, those greenhouse gases would still discharge unabated into our atmosphere. Neither would the plan offset the upstream greenhouse gas leaks and emissions from fracking required to obtain the gas. It would not offset the pain, suffering and negative health impacts to our fellow citizens living in the fracking fields of West Virginia and Pennsylvania where MVP gas would be sourced. Studies show significant negative health impacts to families living near fracking sites. It would not offset the seizure of land, loss of property value and loss of home business income for thousands of hard-working low- and middle-income Americans along the MVP route. It would not offset the threat to their drinking water wells and springs, pollution to their streams, rivers and air, or destruction of their farmland. It would not offset the documented mental health anguish that many of them have suffered from the MVP’s attack on their peace of mind. It would not offset the miles of forest that the MVP has destroyed. These forests cleaned the air, sequestered carbon, provided clean water, wildlife habitat and a beautiful cathedral of peace and tranquility. They have been replaced by the permanent scar of the MVP, an ongoing nightmare for those who are now forced to look at it every day, much like looking at a scar across the face of a loved one. It would not offset the leakage and intentional discharge of numerous toxins, including radioactive substances, that are carried in the gas stream. It would not offset the negative health impacts to all of us from fossil fuels, as the UN report clearly points out. The MVP project would not offset the downstream greenhouse gas emissions. MVP operational greenhouse gas emissions are about one third of one percent of the greenhouse gas emissions that would be discharged from burning the gas. Using the same cost-to-offset ratio as the MVP plan, the cost to offset 50 years of combustion from the MVP is $225 billion.
Virginia Air Pollution Control Board to Rule on New Pipeline - The Lambert compressor station, a natural gas facility in rural Virginia, if approved, would extend the 303-mile Mountain Valley pipeline project by 75 miles into North Carolina. Opponents of the project argue that the proposed expansion would adversely impact the health of low-income and majority African-American residents of Banister District in Pittsylvania County, Virginia. These arguments are being made in front of the Virginia Air Pollution Control Board in an effort to obtain a denial of a key approval being sought by the developers of the project. Analysts believe that a denial would be a big step in the fight for environmental justice. This begs the question: what is environmental justice? According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, environmental justice is the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, national origin, or income with respect to the development, implementation and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations and policies.[1] Political, legal and societal pressures are creating debates around pipeline projects throughout the country, the most notable of them being the Keystone XL oil conduit to the Atlantic Coast. Developers are revising or, in some cases, abandoning mature natural gas projects due to these pressures and strong advocacy and activism in favor of environmental justice. Recently, for example, the developers of the Byhalia Connection crude oil pipeline in Memphis walked away from the project due to upheaval over the proposed project’s disparagingly adverse impact on African-American neighborhoods.[2] Grassroots activism, voices as powerful as the President’s[3] and as well-respected as George Thurston’s, a New York University expert on the health effects caused by air pollution, have made clear to natural gas pipeline developers that environmental justice is to be taken seriously. These efforts have not only spurred cancellations or terminations of significant energy projects. They have also led to the creation of projects, ventures and initiatives that further environmental justice, especially in the renewable energy sector. Virginia’s Air Pollution Control Board has a big decision to make. Last year, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that a different project, the Atlantic Coast pipeline project, could not go ahead[5]. The Court held that this same Board had failed to carefully account for the disproportionate harm of the project to surrounding residents.[6] The Board now has to decide: will the Lambert project live or will the possibly emerging trend in favor of environmental justice see the project suffer the same fate of some other pipeline projects of recent times? This case could prove to be a bellwether in the larger national environmental justice debate.
Federal review recommends leaving cancelled Atlantic Coast Pipeline pipe, felled trees in place - A federal review of a plan to restore land disturbed by construction of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline prior to its cancellation in July 2020 recommends that some 31 miles of installed pipeline and 83 miles of trees felled for the project be left in place to minimize further disturbance to wildlife and vegetation. “Overall, we believe removing the installed pipe would destabilize currently stable and restored lands; impact affected lands, property owners, and area residents a second time … and impact anew and prolong (by years) the impacts on the environment,” concluded the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Office of Energy Projects. The conclusions, which require commission approval and are not a formal decision, were issued Friday as part of a mammoth 727-page document known as a draft supplemental environmental impact statement. The review evaluates restoration plans submitted by Atlantic Coast Pipeline for the closeout of that project, as well as for the related Supply Header project that would have shipped gas through Pennsylvania and West Virginia but has also since been cancelled. Those plans, developed by pipeline owners Dominion Energy and Duke Energy, called for leaving already installed pipe in place, removing 83 miles of trees that had been felled but not cleared, restoring another 83 miles of cleared and graded land and backfilling and reclaiming sites where facilities were being constructed. FERC staff concurred with many of the proposals except for the plan for removing felled trees, which it said should be left in place unless landowners object. “Several years have passed since the trees were felled; vegetation has grown up around the felled trees and wildlife now occupies this vegetation/habitat. As they exist today, we generally believe that conditions in these areas can be considered akin to natural succession and a benefit to restoration/stabilization,” the draft supplemental EIS says. Staff concede, however, that leaving the trees in place “can also be considered as an impediment to land use and potentially inhibit landowner access to parts of their property.”“Where landowners prefer removal of felled trees that were not previously cleared … Atlantic should remove the felled trees from the landowner tract,” they write. Dominion spokesperson Aaron Ruby said Atlantic Coast is still “carefully reviewing” the document.What FERC’s draft review doesn’t settle is the thorny question of what will happen to the more than 2,600 permanent easements covering 4,290 acres that Atlantic Coast obtained from landowners over the course of its years-long work on the project.
FERC Approves Plan to Restore Aborted Atlantic Coast Pipe ROW - Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) had laid 31 miles of pipeline and had cut trees for 222 miles along the 600-mile route before Dominion Energy, the builder, decided last summer it no longer wanted to be in the interstate pipeline business, canceling ACP (seeDominion Cancels Atlantic Coast Pipe, Sells Pipe Biz for $9.7B). In January of this year, Dominion filed a plan with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to clean up and “undo” the project (see Dominion Files Plan with FERC to “Undo” Atlantic Coast Pipe Work). Yesterday FERC pretty much endorsed Dominion’s clean-up plan, with one exception…In a Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement issued yesterday, FERC concurred with Dominion’s plan to leave the 31 miles of pipeline already in the ground, buried, and covered over long ago. However, some 83 miles (out of 222 miles) of downed trees still remain in the right-of-way (ROW). Dominion planned to clear away those trees, which have been sitting rotting in the ROW for several years now. FERC says wildlife and vegetation have taken up residence in those downed trees and it’s best to leave them alone–unless a particular landowner wants them removed.What about the easements themselves (see What Happens to Leased Land for Now-Canceled Atlantic Coast Pipe?)? Will landowners get control back over their property? Will Dominion sell the easements to another company?There’s still no clear answer to that question. Dominion says it will NOT give back ownership of the easements to landowners–Dominion will retain ownership of those easements. When asked if the company will sell the easements to another company for another project, Dominion said they “have no plans to do so at this time,” which we take as double-speak for yes they will sell the easements to another interested company, they just don’t have anyone lined up right now. Here’s a summary of FERC’s mammoth 727-page Draft Supplemental EIS for Atlantic Coast Pipeline and the related Supply Header Restoration Project (full copy embedded below):A federal review of a plan to restore land disturbed by construction of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline prior to its cancellation in July 2020 recommends that some 31 miles of installed pipeline and 83 miles of trees felled f or the project be left in place to minimize further disturbance to wildlife and vegetation.“Overall, we believe removing the installed pipe would destabilize currently stable and restored lands; impact affected lands, property owners, and area residents a second time … and impact anew and prolong (by years) the impacts on the environment,” concluded the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Office of Energy Projects.The conclusions, which require commission approval and are not a formal decision, were issued Friday as part of a mammoth 727-page document known as a draft supplemental environmental impact statement.The review evaluates restoration plans submitted by Atlantic Coast Pipeline for the closeout of that project, as well as for the related Supply Header project that would have shipped gas through Pennsylvania and West Virginia but has also since been cancelled.Those plans, developed by pipeline owners Dominion Energy and Duke Energy, called for leaving already installed pipe in place, removing 83 miles of trees that had been felled but not cleared, restoring another 83 miles of cleared and graded land and backfilling and reclaiming sites where facilities were being constructed.
Fiscal Court discusses Pike gas shut-off --During the July 20 meeting of the Pike County Fiscal Court, Judge-Executive Ray Jones addressed the recent actions taken by a local company which resulted in 100 residences losing natural gas service, perhaps permanently. Kinzer Drilling, according to a statement from the company, shut down its line due to ‘numerous leaks and imminent threat’ without warning to either the customers or to Kentucky Frontier Gas that sold the gas to the customers. In a statement, Kinzer Drilling said the lines had deteriorated to the point that repairs wouldn’t be possible. “The fiscal court has no ability to regulate natural gas utilities,” Jones said during the meeting. “Even the Kentucky Public Service Commission could not regulate the line that was abandoned.” “Mr. Steve Shute with Kentucky Frontier has informed me that they have offered to assume responsibility for the line and they would take steps to do some triage on the line to detect any serious leaks and to repair,” Jones said. “Then, they would undertake replacing any section of the line that would need to be replaced.” However, Jones said, he has learned that Kinzer has not been willing to do that. “Unfortunately, I have learned that Kinzer Drilling has told Kentucky Frontier that they would not agree to convey the line under those terms and that the line be abandoned and they would not turn the gas back on,” Jones said.
GOP members press FERC on whether it will deny gas projects over climate impact | S&P Global Platts --US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Richard Glick faced questioning from Republican House members July 27 on whether his increased attention to greenhouse gas emissions would prompt the commission to reject applications for interstate natural gas projects. Their questioning and concerns over whether FERC was cooling on natural gas and other fossil fuels came during an oversight hearing on the commission's role in the changing energy landscape held by the House Energy and Commerce Committee's energy subcommittee. Since becoming chairman in January, Glick has worked to increase consideration of climate impacts in FERC's gas pipeline project reviews, an area that continues to divide the commission. Representative David McKinley, Republican-West Virginia, asked Glick what level of GHG emissions would be acceptable to allow FERC to approve a pipeline, since the commission has not yet laid out metrics for determining the significance of emissions. And he highlighted the views in a dissent by Republican FERC Commissioner James Danly suggesting FERC lacks expertise and regulatory authority to make such a determination. Glick frequently pointed to appeals court rulings to explain the shifts in FERC's approach. The DC Circuit Court of Appeals has "twice told US that we actually have to assess these reasonably foreseeable greenhouse gas emissions," Glick said. He avoided identifying a threshold of acceptable GHG gas emissions for a project, saying, "I don't want to prejudge the matter because it's currently being litigated at FERC." Representative Tim Walberg, Republican-Michigan, worried that FERC may be "vastly overstepping its jurisdiction by viewing all decisions through an environmental lens, instead of putting reliability and affordability for the customer first." He asked Glick whether he believed FERC has statutory authority to deny a permit "solely because of climate change concerns." Again leaning on appeals court findings, Glick said the courts on "numerous occasions" have told FERC that if environmental concerns are significant enough to outweigh benefits and those impacts could not be mitigated, then FERC could technically reject a certificate, though Glick noted FERC had not yet done so. FERC could, however, require a pipeline to mitigate such impacts and would not necessarily have to deny a project, Glick added. Representative Bill Johnson, Republican-Ohio, sought to pin Glick down on whether he broadly supports LNG export expansions, and on whether FERC would consider downstream climate benefits of LNG. "On a case-by-case basis," Glick said he thought there were LNG exports that serve the public interest. But, he told Johnson that FERC cannot look at the emissions impacts of LNG projects downstream. "Courts have told us that's for the Department of Energy, not FERC," he noted.
FERC climate reviews: CO2 solution or chaos? - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission took an unprecedented step earlier this year by assessing a proposed natural gas pipeline’s contribution to climate change for the first time ever.But some FERC experts and environmental advocates say they’re concerned that the agency lacks clear criteria for analyzing the greenhouse gas emissions of other gas projects — a gap they say raises legal questions and weakens a process critical to determining whether large amounts of U.S. fossil fuel infrastructure are approved and built.In March, FERC released an order detailing its new process for greenhouse gas reviews, before ultimately approving the gas project undergoing the first-of-a-kind climate analysis (Energywire, March 19). Under FERC’s framework, greenhouse gas assessments will be done for energy projects when a proposal could have “arguably significant” impacts, according to the agency.“In future proceedings, the evidence on which the Commission relies to assess significance may evolve as the Commission becomes more familiar with the exercise,” the majority of commissioners wrote in the order, issued March 22.However, FERC hasn’t yet established a methodology for analyzing a project’s climate-warming emissions, according to environmental impact statements put out by the independent agency this month and last. In the six draft environmental impact statements FERC issued for pending natural gas projects this year, agency staff concluded that it could not determine whether their emissions would be unacceptably high, citing the lack of an agreed-upon standard.They also could not “find an established threshold” for determining the importance of the projects’ emissions relative to state and federal greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets, according to the draft statements.“We are unable to come to a significance determination regarding the Project’s impacts on climate change. However, we acknowledge the Project would increase the atmospheric concentration of GHGs, in combination with past and future emissions from all other sources and would contribute to climate change,” the agency wrote in a draft statement issued this month for Kinder Morgan Inc.’s Evangeline Pass Expansion Project.
McKinley: Criteria for Federal Pipeline Environmental Review Don't Add Up — U.S. Rep. David McKinley was not satisfied Tuesday with answers from the chairman of the federal agency that approves new natural gas pipeline construction over criteria for approvals, including climate change concerns. The U.S. House of Representatives’ Energy and Commerce Subcommittee met Tuesday for a hearing, titled “The Changing Energy Landscape: Oversight of FERC.” FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, regulates the transmission of electric and natural gas utilities across state lines. Part of that role involves regulating the transportation of oil and natural gas through pipelines. The agency recently started assessing the potential climate change effects of new pipeline construction. According to E and E News, FERC released an order laying out its new criteria for greenhouse gas reviews. The new rule was first used to assess the climate change effects of Northern Natural Gas Company’s project to build and replace more than 87 miles of pipeline between South Dakota and Nebraska. “Going forward, we are committed to treating greenhouse gas emissions and their contribution to climate change the same as all other environmental impacts we consider,” said FERC Chairman Rich Glick in a March statement. “A proposed pipeline’s contribution to climate change is one of its most consequential environmental impacts and we must consider all evidence in the record — both qualitative and quantitative — to assess the significance of that impact,” Glick continued. “I look forward to continuing to work with my colleagues as we refine our methods for doing so.” The final order came about after years of disagreements between FERC commissioners. It’s also unclear what the methodology behind the climate change assessments is. McKinley, West Virginia’s Republican 1st District congressman, questioned Glick about the methodology Tuesday. “I’m curious. If by taking this unprecedented action, I’m assuming, by extension, you could deny a pipeline to be constructed,” McKinley said. “If that’s true, what level of (carbon dioxide) emissions are going to be acceptable from a natural gas power plant? “What’s the level? Because you can determine that it makes a significant increase in emissions, so therefore you’re going to deny the pipeline,” McKinley continued. “Everything I’ve read so far, you don’t have a determination. You don’t have metrics on that. What is it that you think would be the appropriate level of CO2 emissions out of a gas-fired power plant that would allow you to approve the pipeline?” Glick told McKinley that according to a 2017 ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, FERC must consider greenhouse emissions impacts of power plants being served by pipelines undergoing a review through the National Environmental Policy Act. “The D.C. Circuit twice told us that we actually have to assess these easily foreseeable greenhouse gas emissions, so we’re trying to do that,” Glick said. “Obviously, we have disagreements among the commissioners to what level might be significant from my perspective.”
How the FERC sets oil and gas pipeline rates - Oil and gas pipeline regulation have two things in common: They’re both regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and they were both brought under regulatory oversight in the first place by a Roosevelt — oil pipelines by Teddy Roosevelt and gas pipelines by Franklin Roosevelt. However, that’s where the similarities end. They’re regulated under different statutes, with wildly different histories that have led to very different types of oversight and rate structures. These rules tend to offer oil pipelines a higher degree of flexibility, but in doing so, they also make their rate structures less predictable. Today, we wrap up our review of oil and gas pipelines, and how their separate histories led to the current differences in pipeline rate structures, this time with a focus on oil pipeline ratemaking.In Part 1, we discussed how crude oil and natural gas pipeline regulation in the U.S. developed. Both sectors have been under the purview of FERC since the 1970s. Oil pipeline oversight by the federal government started with the enactment of the Hepburn Act of 1906, which modified the Interstate Commerce Act, adding oil pipelines to the list of the Interstate Commerce Commission’s (ICC) concerns. The ICC’s primary focus was on providing producers with common-carrier access to crude oil pipelines. Federal regulation of natural gas pipelines didn’t kick in until 1938 with the enactment of the Natural Gas Act (NGA), which put regulation of gas pipelines in the hands of the Federal Power Commission (FPC), an entity that was created in the 1920s to regulate interstate electricity transactions. The Energy Organization Act of 1977 transformed the FPC into the FERC, which also became responsible for the regulation of oil pipelines. That’s pretty much how it’s been ever since, though the Energy Policy Act of 1992 made some revisions to how FERC regulates oil pipelines (see timeline for oil and gas pipelines regulation in Figure 1).In Part 2, we delved further into how the evolution of natural gas pipeline regulation has shaped transportation ratemaking and service structures — from the days when pipelines were the buyers and sellers of natural gas and prices for gas sold to interstate pipelines were regulated by the feds, to the early 1990s, when FERC Order No. 636 restructured the industry, taking pipelines out of the gas buying-and-selling business and joining with the Wellhead Decontrol Act of 1989 to deregulate gas commodity prices (see timeline in Figure 1). The mess that led to restructuring and deregulation started in 1954, when major dislocations grew between prices for gas on interstate pipelines, which were federally regulated, and intrastate pipelines, which fell outside federal jurisdiction. For the next 45 years, the gas industry had every kind of dysfunction, from severe shortages to massive rate increases, wild statutory swings in the legal prices for wellhead gas, and an industry drowning in overpriced gas. With wellhead deregulation in 1989, Order No. 636 restructuring in 1993, and the advent of shale gas abundance in the early 2000s, the natural gas industry climbed out of its 45-year pit. Today, the gas industry is healthy and transparent.
North American Pipeline Project Roundup: July/August 2021 - North American Oil & Gas Pipelines - Project Roundup is a monthly feature that summarizes the contracts awarded for pipeline projects in North America. The following oil and gas pipeline projects have been announced. Projects are in order of most recent approximate starting date. All projects are for 2021 unless noted. (details on 25 projects)
Activists Have Shut Down a Memphis-Area Pipeline -- But Their Fight Isn't Over – As the dust settles on their victory, the coalition of activists and community members that opposed the Byhalia Connection oil pipeline in greater Memphis, Tennessee — which developers officially canceled on July 2 — are continuing to mobilize, because they say a risk to the land, water, climate and community remains.In step with the cancellation, Plains All American Pipeline has requested state and federal agencies to revoke necessary permits for the Byhalia Connection — what would have been a 49-mile route connecting a refinery in Memphis to an oil terminal in northern Mississippi, running through a series of majority-Black neighborhoods in Tennessee. The pipeline was a joint venture between Plains and Valero Energy Corporation.As MLK50 reported shortly after the announcement, developers have said that community members who received compensation can keep it. But as with the canceled Keystone XL and Atlantic Coast pipelines, developers still retain indefinite rights to access parts of privately owned land along the canceled route. Justin J. Pearson, co-founder of Memphis Community Against the Pipeline (MCAP), told Truthout that having an out-of-state company continue to own land access is exploitative. “That’s another injustice on top of the injustice of having someone knock on your door and tell you, if you don’t sell your land we’re going to sue you,” he said, referring to developers’ use of eminent domain in obtaining easements in low-wealth communities. “It’s violence upon people’s bodies and people’s souls having to be treated this way.”Anti-pipeline organizers around the country concur, noting that the retaining of indefinite rights leaves the possibility of future disenfranchisement wide open.“It’s a one-time payment for a lifetime of risk,” Nebraska organizer Jane Kleeb told Truthout. Kleeb is the founding director of Bold Nebraska, which helped lead opposition to the Keystone XL Pipeline. “There’s no reason why a pipeline company needs a forever-agreement,” she said.George Nolan, a lawyer with the Southern Environmental Law Center who has represented MCAP and other community partners, told Truthouta lawyer representing the cancelled project said they would consider requests to return easements to Memphis landowners who pay the company back on a “case-by-case” basis, noting that it remained to be seen how the company planned to handle their control of easements in Mississippi. “A problem with that approach by the pipeline company is that this happened during a pandemic and I’m presuming that many folks just may no longer have the money,” Nolan said, adding that in some cases, compensation from the company may have gone to paying back taxes.
Spire Missouri chief says STL pipeline closure would create winter service risk -- With this past winter's severe weather still top of mind, Spire Inc.'s Missouri gas utility is already looking to the next major cold snap. If the region experiences a deep chill without access to the Spire STL Pipeline, Spire utility executives warn, hundreds of thousands of customers could lose service. Spire STL delivers Rocky Mountain and Appalachian natural gas to the St. Louis area, including to its affiliate gas utility, Spire Missouri Inc. A recent court decision found that federal regulators had not sufficiently scrutinized whether Spire STL demonstrated a valid market need for the project. The court sided with the Environmental Defense Fund, finding the group had "identified plausible evidence of self-dealing" in Spire STL's reliance on affiliate contracts to show the pipe was necessary. The court's decision could lead to a shutdown of the pipeline, which went into service in November 2019. But Spire Missouri President Scott Carter, also Spire's COO of distribution operations, said that the pipe had played a crucial role in maintaining service in eastern Missouri during February's extreme cold snap, and that shutting it down could leave Spire Missouri unable to meet peak winter demand. "This is reality for me. I don't sit on extra capacity just in case some court two years later shuts down the operation of a pipeline," Carter said told S&P Global news reporters. "I'm hoping that as we move through the process, we can put the facts on the table that support the benefits of the pipeline, the criticality of the pipeline." When the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit panel vacated the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's 2018 certificate authorizing the pipeline project, the panel found that FERC did not adequately consider arguments that Spire STL's sole precedent agreement to deliver gas to affiliate Spire Missouri was not enough to establish public need. While it is not uncommon for pipelines to use contracts with affiliates to pass the public need test or for project opponents to challenge that need, limited demand growth and Spire STL's reliance on a single contract stands out, especially in a climate-conscious era of heightened scrutiny around pipeline development. Natural gas pipeline opponents have already seized on the Spire STL ruling to bolster arguments for more analysis in other pipeline cases.FERC and Spire, however, have maintained that affiliate contracts should be treated the same as unaffiliated contracts.
Kinder Morgan's Elba Liquefaction receives highest gas deliveries since July 1 - Feedgas demand at Kinder Morgan's Elba Liquefaction terminal in Georgia reached its highest level in three weeks July 23, as strong international prices spur high utilization at US export terminals. The smallest of the six major US liquefaction facilities has yet to have all 10 of its trains operating at the same time, as one remains offline since a 2020 fire.Persistent Chinese import strength, strong power-sector driven LNG demand in South Korea and flat Asian LNG supply year on year means that Asia's pull on Atlantic Basin supply is expected to grow nearly 100 million cu m/d through the balance of summer, S&P Global Platts Analytics estimates. Together with the strong pricing environment, that should continue to incentivize US export activity.Gas deliveries to Elba, near Savannah, registered approximately 312 MMcf/d during the morning cycle July 23. That was the highest level since July 1, Platts Analytics data show.Total US LNG feedgas demand was re-approaching 11 Bcf/d -- a level it last surpassed July 14 -- as Northeast Asian spot prices remained comfortably above $14/MMBtu.Two major US exporters, Cheniere and Sempra, are preparing to release their second-quarter financial results, and their outlooks will be closely watched by the market. Kinder Morgan said in its recent earnings report that the strength in LNG feedgas demand was a key reason why total gas volumes on its pipelines rose quarter over quarter. In May 2020, a fire occurred in a mixed refrigerant compressor of Elba's Unit 2. Two adjacent units that were shut down as a precaution were later brought back online, though Unit 2 has remained offline since then.Earlier this year, Kinder Morgan said it may be able to restore service to Unit 2 in the fourth quarter.Elba, with a capacity of 2.5 million mt/year, is supported by a 20-year contract with sole offtaker Shell. It shipped its first cargo in December 2019.The terminal -- originally built to import LNG and later converted to handle exports after the US shale revolution -- utilizes Shell's Movable Modular Liquefaction System design. Kinder Morgan is the majority owner in a joint venture that holds the terminal, while investment funds managed by EIG Global Energy Partners have a 49% stake.
US weekly LNG exports increase another week - LNG exports from the U.S. increased this week, followed by Henry Hub prices, according to weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA: US weekly LNG exports increase another week Courtesy of Cheniere For the period between 15 July to 21 July, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA reports that 21 LNG vessels departed the United States. Six ships departed from Sabine Pass, five from Freeport, four from Corpus Christi, three from Cameron, two from Cove Point, and one from Elba Island. They held a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 76 billion cubic feet. The Henry Hub spot price rose from $3.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.91/MMBtu this week. Natural gas deliveries to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities averaged 10.4 Bcf/d, or 0.33 Bcf/d lower than last week.
Tellurian Executive Chairman Charif Souki on LNG, going green and the nuclear option --Charif Souki was faced with taking a company whose future seemed uncertain last year and positioning it to begin building a multibillion dollar liquefied natural gas terminal. It was a daunting, but not intimidating, task. Souki founded and led Houston-based Cheniere Energy, which became the nation’s first LNG exporter in early 2016. Forced out by investor Carl Icahn, who’d grown weary of his greater ambitions to keep expanding, Souki regrouped. With Martin Houston, he co-founded Tellurian Inc., another Houston-based liquefied natural gas company, only to see it flounder at the start of the pandemic. Tellurian laid off more than 40 percent of its 176 employees and slashed expenses in an attempt to save the Driftwood LNG project it was developing in Lake Charles, La. The proposed $16.8 billion facility lacked the contracts or financing to support construction, even though it held a federal permit to make and export more than 27.6 million metric tons of LNG per year. Now, as demand rises and supplies shrink, LNG prices have rebounded to the point that the timing is good for Driftwood to get underway. The facility would have the capacity to process and export a total of 27.6 million metric tons of LNG per year. The terminal would have 20 processing units, or trains, with a capacity of about 1.4 million metric tons per year each. The project, build over four phases, is expected to be completed in 2026. Global construction and engineering firm Bechtel has been tapped to work on Driftwood. Souki, the company’s executive chairman, addressed its projects, climate change and electric generation with the Houston Chronicle in late June. M
Cleaner burn: LNG producers make case for energy transition role -- While liquified natural gas’ reputation has been sullied because of flaring in the Permian Basin and methane leaks into the environment, global demand for the super-chilled fuel shows it can still play a role in the transition to a cleaner energy future.LNG produces about half the carbon dioxide emissions of black coal when burned to generate electricity, and demand for the cleaner-burning fuel has been on the rise.“The use of natural gas in the power sector has helped the U.S. reduce its greenhouse gas emissions,” Kinder Morgan CEO Steven Kean said. “That's a largely result of natural gas replacing coal in the power grid.”U.S. liquefied natural gas exports grew to record highs in the first half of 2021, according to the Energy Department, averaging 9.6 billion cubic feet per day, a 42 percent increase compared to an average of 2.8 billion cubic feet per day in the same period of 2020, according to the Energy Information Agency.A number of factors contributed to rising global demand, including the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and unplanned outages at export facilities in several countries, including Australia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Algeria and Norway.Also feeding the increase was new export capacity. Last year saw the final liquefaction units commissioned by Houston-based companies, including Freeport LNG’s facility on Quintana Island near Freeport; Cameron LNG’s project in Hackberry, La.; and Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi LNG. Other small-scale units were placed in service at Elba Island LNG, a joint venture between Kinder Morgan and EIG Global Energy Partners.The increase comes as producers make the case that LNG is a viable transition fuel, in part by seeking to lower their carbon footprint.Venture Global, a Virginia-based company, in May said it is investing in carbon capture and storage at the liquefied natural gas facilities Calcasieu Pass in Cameron Parish, La., and Plaquemines in Plaquemines Parish, La. Both plants are under development. That carbon sequestration project would store in underground saline aquifers the ground carbon dioxide that would otherwise flow to the surface, reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
August Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Surge Again - Natural gas futures on Monday advanced for a seventh consecutive session as robust domestic cooling demand and strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) export levels continued to drive up prices that are at their highest levels since 2018. The August Nymex contract advanced 4.2 cents day/day and settled at $4.102/MMBtu. The prompt month gained nearly 11% last week. September rose 4.0 cents on Monday to $4.082. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. gained 16.0 cents to $3.965 on Monday – after advancing four out of five sessions last week. “With the hottest weather of the summer expected to extend nationwide” on Tuesday “and the potential for record electricity demand” in Texas, cash prices and futures were poised for another strong week, EBW Analytics Group said. Estimates Monday showed production around 91 Bcf, below recent highs, while weather-driven gas consumption kicked off the week at elevated levels, NatGasWeather said. “National demand will be strong this week as hot upper high pressure rules most of the U.S. with highs of 90s to 100s,” the firm noted. “Slightly cooler exceptions will occur over the Upper Great Lakes and New England, as weak systems produce highs of 80s, while very warm to hot with heavy monsoon showers over the Southwest.” NatGasWeather also noted that, with supplies tight in both Asia and Europe, global gas prices are lofty this summer, creating added demand for U.S. LNG exports and providing support for futures. LNG feed gas volumes on Monday hovered near 11 Bcf, near record levels.
U.S. natgas futures fall from 31-month high on less hot forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% on Tuesday from a 31-month high in the prior session on forecasts for less hot weather and a drop in demand for air conditioning next week. On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for August delivery fell 13.1 cents, or 3.2%, to settle at $3.971 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since December 2018 for a sixth day in a row. The September NGU21 contract, which will soon be the front-month, dropped 15 cents to around $3.93 per mmBtu. In the power market, next-day prices for Wednesday soared into the triple digits at several Western hubs, including the Mid Columbia EL-PK-MIDC-SNL in central Washington State and Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL in Arizona as a heatwave settles over the region. In Texas, meanwhile, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid operator for most of the state, passed the first of what could be many tests over the next week by meeting very high demand on Monday without problem as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the latest heatwave. Data provider Refinitiv said U.S. gas output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 91.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, due mostly to pipeline problems in West Virginia earlier in the month. That compares with an average of 92.2 bcfd in June and an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would drop from 95.4 bcfd this week to 92.8 next week. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's projections on Monday on expectations for less heat and air conditioning demand. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 10.8 bcfd so far in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below April's 11.5-bcfd record. With European and Asian JKMc1 gas trading over $12 and $14 per mmBtu, respectively, analysts said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico have averaged 6.5 bcfd so far in July, down from a record 6.8 bcfd in June.
US working natural gas volumes in underground storage increase 36 Bcf: EIA - US natural gas storage fields added volumes above the five-year average for the third consecutive time for the week ended July 23, while the Henry Hub September contract, now the prompt month, surpassed $4/MMBtu. Working gas in storage increased by 36 Bcf to 2.714 Tcf for the week ended July 23, US Energy Information Administration data showed July 29. It was less than the 40 Bcf addition expected by an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts. It outgained the five-year average build of 28 Bcf and last year's 27 Bcf injection in the corresponding week. Although it marked the third-consecutive above-average injection, the weekly builds have not registered strong enough to make a serious dent in the lingering deficit. Storage volumes now stand at 523 Bcf, or 16%, less than the year-ago level of 3.237 Tcf, and 168 Bcf, or 6%, less than the five-year average of 2.882 Tcf. Total supplies fell by 200 MMcf/d from the week prior to average 95.6 Bcf/d. Small gains in onshore production were canceled out by an equal decline in offshore receipts, leaving only a dip in net Canadian imports to drive supplies slightly downward on the week. Downstream, total demand was seen rising by about 500 MMcf/d, with much of that stemming from higher gas-fired power demand. Small net withdrawals were recorded in the Pacific and South Central regions for the second week in a row. Prices were up sharply by midday during the July 29 session, lifted by an inventory report that was generally lower than the consensus view, indicating markets were tighter than anticipated last week. With September now taking over the prompt-month position, balance-of-summer NYMEX Henry Hub prices were trading 8 cents higher on the day, building upon the 4 cents of gains from the July 28 session. This effectively unwound the sharp losses from July 27, when the summer contract strip fell by nearly 14 cents. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecast a 16 Bcf injection for the week ending July 30, which would measure 14 Bcf less than the five-year average. The following week shows an injection matching the five-year average build of 42 Bcf.
Natural Gas Futures Spike as September Kicks Off Run as Prompt Month - Natural gas futures flew higher on Thursday, bolstered by strong fundamentals and a bullish government inventory report that reinforced concerns about supply/demand imbalance and the specter of anemic storage levels ahead of winter. The September Nymex contract, which took over as the prompt month on Thursday, jumped 9.2 cents day/day and settled at $4.059/MMBtu. A day earlier, August rolled off the board with a final settlement of $4.044. October gained 9.1 cents to $4.060 on Thursday. Meanwhile, NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. on Thursday shed 6.0 cents to $3.870. Lofty temperatures permeated much of the Lower 48, but rain and cooler highs in the 70s waded into major markets in the East, including New York City and Boston, curbing demand and prices. Gas traded Thursday closed out July and will flow for Friday and Saturday, the final two calendar days of the month. Trading Friday will flow for Sunday and Monday. Importantly, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported an injection of 36 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended July 23. The result proved bullish relative to market expectations and helped fuel a surge in futures. Prior to the report, major polls coalesced around a build of 42 Bcf. NGI modeled a 49 Bcf injection for the period. Steamy summer conditions defined the covered week. “It was hotter than normal over the West and portions of the East Coast, while warm, showery and humid over much of the rest of the U.S.,” NatGasWeather said. It had expected a build around 42 Bcf. Bespoke Weather Services, which had modeled a 41 Bcf build, said the EIA print amplified already pressing worries about supplies. “This is another very tight number, supply/demand balance-wise, reinforcing our view that we simply do not have enough supply here and now to alleviate storage concerns as we head toward the winter season,” Bespoke said. The firm noted that production has held close to 91 Bcf most days in July, below the 92 Bcf/d average in June. It has been even further below the roughly 93 Bcf/d level Bespoke said may be necessary to keep pace with seasonally strong power demand and exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels. LNG feed gas volumes have come in shy of 11 Bcf most days over the past two weeks and are widely expected to exceed that level – and approach record volumes – once summer maintenance work at export facilities wraps up. Demand from both Asia and Europe, where gas stocks are light, is running high and shows no sign of abating.
September Natural Gas Futures Flounder Despite Bullish Setup for Balance of Summer; Spot Prices Sag - Natural gas futures faltered on Friday as traders took profits and markets focused on a near-term shift in weather that is expected to usher in a reprieve from the oppressive heat that has defined the summer to date over much of the Lower 48. The September Nymex contract dropped 14.5 cents day/day and settled at $3.914/MMBtu. A day earlier, in its debut as the prompt month, September rallied 9.2 cents. Futures had advanced more than 11% to that point in July. October shed 14.0 cents to $3.920 on Friday. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. retreated 12.5 cents to $3.745. “National demand will ease to much lighter levels” over the coming week “as weather systems sweep across much of the eastern half of the U.S. with highs of upper 60s to lower 80s,” NatGasWeather said. The firm projected the coolest conditions across the Great Lakes and Northeast. “It will still be hot next week over the West and Plains, including much of Texas, but not enough to counter” the comfortable conditions in the East. Meanwhile, Texas Eastern Transmission Co. (Tetco) notified shippers ahead of trading Friday that it had received approval from federal regulators to return its 30-inch diameter system to full operating pressure, with capacity expected to increase by roughly 0.5 Bcf/d starting in the coming week. Bespoke Weather Services said this would “have some impact on Henry Hub pricing specifically.” However, the firm doesn’t see the restored capacity “significantly affecting the supply/demand balance,” and it anticipates a return of upward pressure on prices in August.
Natural Gas Rig Count Drops to 103 as GOM Activity Slows - The U.S. natural gas rig count slipped one unit to 103 for the week ended Friday (July 30) as a pullback in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) dragged the overall domestic tally lower, the latest data from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR) show. Declines in the United States also included two oil-directed rigs, leaving the combined count at 488 active rigs as of Friday. That’s nearly double the 251 rigs running in the year-ago period, according to the BKR numbers, which are based partly on data from Enverus.The GOM saw three rigs exit during the period, lowering its total to 14 versus 12 a year ago. Land rigs remained unchanged at 473, while one rig continued to operate in inland waters. Four directional units and two vertical units exited overall for the week, partially offset by the addition of three horizontal units.The Canadian rig count, meanwhile, added four rigs — all natural gas-directed — to raise its total for the week to 153, up from 45 a year ago.In terms of changes by major basin, BKR recorded a one-rig decrease in the Haynesville Shale for the week. The Granite Wash, Marcellus Shale, Permian Basin, Utica Shale and Williston Basin each saw a net increase of one rig week/week.Broken down by state, Louisiana posted the largest net loss for the week, dropping four units from its total to fall to 48, versus 29 a year ago. Utah saw a net loss of two rigs week/week, while Colorado and New Mexico each dropped one unit from their respective totals.Meanwhile, Texas added two rigs during the period, while North Dakota, Ohio and Pennsylvania each added one rig, the BKR data show.The upstream oil and natural gas economy in Texas is finally signaling a new cycle of expansion in activity following the double-barrel contraction in 2019 and 2020, according to economic indicators.The Texas Petro Index (TPI), created and overseen by petroleum economist Karr Ingham of the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers, through June had increased for three straight months and four of the last five months. The index improved to 147.2 in June from 143.1 in May. Still, the state remains in recovery mode, as the index was down by 7.2% from the June 2020 score of 158.6.
Shell greenlights development of US Gulf of Mexico Whale field - Shell made July 26 a final investment decision on Whale, a deepwater discovery in the US Gulf of Mexico, amid an offshore operating environment that appears to be one of the oil and natural gas industry's brighter operating arenas as recovery ticks up from 18 months of a coronavirus pandemic. Whale, located in the remote Alaminos Canyon area of the Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles southwest of Houston, will feature a semi-submersible production host in more than 8,600 feet of water with 15 producing oil wells, Shell said in a statement. The field was discovered in early 2018. Whale is expected to produce a gross 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day at peak production and currently has estimated gross recoverable resources of 490 million boe. The development reflects Shell's ongoing focus on "simplification, replication and capital projects with shorter cycle times" that drive greater value from advantaged positions, Wael Sawan, Shell Upstream Director, said. "We are building on more than 40 years of deepwater expertise to deliver competitive projects that yield high-margin barrels [to] meet the energy demands of today" while also generating cash required to fund the development of energy of the future, Sawan said. The development will also sport a hull that is 99% replicated from Vito that is currently under development, as well as an 80% replication of Vito's topsides.
Local chemical services business to consolidate, relocate to outskirts of Lafayette-area | Coastal Chemical Co. LLC plans to spend $11.4 million consolidating several sites in Louisiana and Texas into one location in Maurice, outside of Lafayette, in Vermilion Parish. Coastal Chemical was founded in 1958 and is a service business for major oil and gas operators both on land and offshore. Coastal Chemical works with companies in North and South America, primarily with pipeline businesses selling products to maintain infrastructure. The company sells natural gas, engine oils, specialty lubricants, industrial coolants and specialty additives. The company touts itself as one of the largest resellers of ExxonMobil lubrications in the U.S. Coastal's plans include retrofitting its Maurice facility near the intersection of La. 92 and Winfred Road. That will require expanding its tank farm, warehouse, laboratory and office. The company plans to consolidate operations from two Louisiana sites: a business office and distribution center in Abbeville and distribution and sales office in Broussard into its Maurice facility. It also will consolidate its Pasadena, Texas, operation, according to an advance notification on file with the state for tax incentives.
US oil, gas rig count falls 5 to 599 as Permian drilling slows - The slowdown in drilling activity was primarily seen in oil-focused plays, where rig counts fell 10 to 457. In contrast, the number of rigs primarily chasing gas climbed five to 142, the highest since the week ended March 18, 2020.The decline was concentrated in the Permian Basin, where the number of active rigs fell six to 253. It was the largest one-week drop in the Permian rig count since the week ended Aug. 5, 2020, when the basin shed seven rigs.Drillers idled three rigs in the Eagle Ford play of south Texas, leaving the total active there at 42, a four-week low.The SCOOP-STACK rig count climbed one to 29, the highest since the week ended April 1, 2020. In the Denver-Julesburg Basin, the rig count moved one higher to a five-week high 15.The Bakken rig count was steady at 23 for a third straight week.Despite the broader uptrend in gas-focused drilling activity, most of these gains were seen outside of the major named basins. Operators added a single rig each in the Haynesville and Marcellus plays, putting total rigs up to 56 and 33, respectively. But in the Utica shale, the rig count fell one to 12.Haynesville drilling activity was last higher in 2019, and the growth in rig count has been accompanied by an increase in well completions and wells drilled.In both May and June, well completions in the Haynesville totaled 50, the highest monthly completion rate in nearly seven years. Over the same two-month period, producers bored almost as many new wells, with 49 drilled in May and 50 in June, data from the US Energy Information Administration’s most recent Drilling Productivity Report shows. As of June, the internal rate of return for an average Haynesville producer has climbed to an estimated 21%, based on a half-cycle, post-tax analysis; a gain that comes largely on the back of higher spot and forward gas prices in 2021. Compared with year-ago levels, IRRs are up sharply from estimates below 10% in June 2020, S&P Global Platts Analytics data shows.On July 29, Henry Hub forward contracts settled above $4/MMBtu until March 2022, which finished at $3.919/$MMBtu. Spot prices broke above $4/MMBtu during July 23 trading for the first time since February’s winter storm as warmer temperatures hit most parts of the Southeast US and Texas. The strength in the forwards markets remains a function of rising demand amid flat production. These strong prices are likely to test North American producers’ commitment to stick to their capital expenditure guidance and tempt them to grow production beyond current plans. While capital discipline from public companies is reducing oil and gas growth, smaller, private companies are capitalizing on higher prices and ramping up drilling activity.
Lime Rock Resources to buy $508M of oil wells in West Texas - Lime Rock Resources plans to buy oil and gas wells in West Texas for $508.3 million. The Houston oil company on Wednesday said it signed a deal with a private seller to buy oil and natural gas properties in Loving County, west of Odessa. The wells, which tap into the prolific Delaware Basin, produce about 15,000 barrels of oil per day. “The high volatility in the energy business over the last 18 months has created some unique opportunities in the oil and gas property market,” Lime Rock CEO Eric Mullins said in a statement. “This acquisition is one of those opportunities, which fits quite well with the Lime Rock Resources acquisition strategy.” OIL BUST: COVID-19 oil bust turns once-pricey West Texas land into a bargain Land prices in the oil patch plummeted during the historic oil bust caused by the global pandemic. The average price of U.S. shale acreage fell by more than 70 percent to $5,000 per acre in 2020 from $17,000 per acre in 2018, according to Rystad, a Norwegian energy research firm. Lime Rock Resources acquires, operates and improves oil and natural gas properties nationally to provide investors with long-term returns. The company’s management arm, established in 1998, has raised $8.9 billion in private equity for investments in oil and gas through Lime Rock Resources and Lime Rock Partners, which invests in other exploration and production and oil-field services companies. The company’s Delaware Basin purchase is expected to close on Sept. 30. M
Forgotten oil and gas wells linger, leaking toxic chemicals - - Rusted pipes litter the sandy fields of Ashley Williams Watt’s cattle ranch in windswept West Texas. The corroded skeletons are all that remain of hundreds of abandoned oil wells that were drilled long before her family owned the land. The wells, unable to produce any useful amounts of oil or gas, were plugged with cement decades ago and forgotten. But something eerie is going on beneath the land, where Watt once played among the mesquite trees, jackrabbits and javelina and first drove the dirt roads at 10 years old. One by one, the wells seem to be unplugging themselves. They’re leaking dangerous chemicals that are seeping into groundwater beneath her ranch. Now 35, Watt believes the problems on her ranch, which sprawls across the oil-rich fields of the Permian Basin, are getting worse. In April, she found crude oil bubbling from an abandoned well. In June, an oil company worker called to alert her that another well was seeping pools of salty produced water, a byproduct of oil and gas extraction containing toxic chemicals.“I’m watching this well literally just spew brine water into my water table, and then I have to go home at night, and I’m sweaty and tired and smelly, and I get in the shower, and I turn on the shower and I look at it, and I think, is this shower going to kill me?” Watt said.The crisis unfolding on Watt’s 75,000-acre ranch offers a window on a growing problem for the oil industry and the communities and governments that are often left to clean up the mess. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, 3.2 million abandoned oil and gas wells exist in the United States. About a third of them were plugged with cement, which is considered the proper way to prevent harmful chemical leaks. But most haven’t been plugged at all.Many of the wells are releasing methane, a greenhouse gas containing about 86 times the climate-warming power of carbon dioxide over two decades. Some are leaking chemicals such as benzene, a known carcinogen, into fields and groundwater.Regulators don’t know where hundreds of thousands of abandoned wells are because many of them were drilled before modern record-keeping and plugging rules were established. They are a silent menace, threatening to explode or contaminate drinking water and leaking atmosphere-warming fumes each day that they’re unplugged. Without records of their whereabouts, it’s impossible to grasp the magnitude of the pollution orhealth problems they may be causing.
EPA Approval of PFAS for Fracking May Spell a New Health Crisis for Communities – For over a month, noxious wastewater has been leaching across the ground on Ashley Watt’s family ranch in the Permian Basin in West Texas where she lives and raises cattle. It started in mid-June, when a well Chevron Corps drilled in the 1960s (and plugged with cement in the 1990s before abandoning it) burst open. The well spewed what Wattdescribed on Twitter as “super concentrated brine and benzene” into her water supply, the Pecos River Basin alluvial aquifer.After a month on site, according to Watt, Chevron plugged the well on July 16, but it failed a pressure test and continued bubbling brine at the surface again just over an hour later. Two calves and four cows have died, as Bloomberg News reported, and the well continues to spray onto the sandy land, where the water table is just over 50 feet below ground. “Anything poured on the surface will be in the water table shortly,” Watt wrote. “This is a desert, and without clean water there is no ranch nor home.”This isn’t Watt’s first tussle with Chevron, nor the first time she’s had to contend with what the industry leaves in its wake. In 2002, after she flushed a toilet at her house, crude oil bubbled up. In 2018, her mother fell ill with adrenocortical carcinoma and passed away mere months later, which Watt noted may have been linked with Chevron’s lack of compliance with well water testing from 2007 to 2013, after a crude oil plume appeared in the groundwater. The company has said it is committed to re-plugging the leak, according to the Associated Press, but evades responsibility for what Watt fears could be a larger problem: if the same thing happens with dozens of other wells on her land. A representative of Chevron told CBS, “any claims that link subsurface activity to the surface leak at [the well] are premature and unsubstantiated.” Now, in addition to trying to get Chevron to clean up and remediate her water supply, Watt and others living in oil- and gas-producing regions may have an additional future-facing health threat to consider. In July, Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) launched the results of an investigation providing evidence that at least 130 oil and gas companies including Chevron and ExxonMobil have used per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), or chemicals that can break down into PFAS in fracking in at least 1,200 wells in the U.S. since 2012. PFAS is the class of synthetic chemicals known colloquially as “forever chemicals” on account of their carbon and fluorine bonds, which take thousands of years to break down and have the tendency to build up in the human body and natural environment. Scientists have linked PFAS tocongenital disabilities, preeclampsia, thyroid disease, and kidney and testicular cancer.
Enbridge ordered to remove 7.5-ton anchor left near Line 5 - The state of Michigan has ordered Enbridge Inc. to remove a 7.5-ton anchor from the bottom of Lake Michigan after it became detached from a maintenance vessel near the company’s controversial Line 5 pipeline under the Straits of Mackinac. The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (EGLE) said it ordered the removal after learning late on Wednesday, July 21, that a company contractor left the 15,000-pound piece of equipment on the bottom. Enbridge says the anchor is located between the dual pipelines, which are 1,200 feet apart. Line 5, which crosses under Lake Michigan just west of the Mackinac Bridge, splits into two smaller lines for the segment that traverses the straits between Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. The Coast Guard established a no-anchor zone around the pipeline after a 2018 anchor strike that damaged the lines, but Enbridge says its contractor was anchoring between the lines using GPS under a work plan “pre-approved” by the state. “There was no risk to the pipelines,” said Enbridge spokesperson Ryan Duffy. “The anchor was placed in between the dual pipelines in an area more than 500 feet from either pipeline per a pre-approved anchoring plan.” “The anchor was placed and then became detached,” Duffy said. Michigan EGLE spokesperson Scott Dean said the state is still collecting more information about the incident, but that it appears an anchor shackle broke on a work barge that was using two anchors while contractors were doing seasonal maintenance on the pipelines. “We are trying to verify their claim,” Dean said. The state says Enbridge is working on a retrieval plan and “expects to have the anchor removed within days.” The anchor loss comes amid high scrutiny on Line 5, which the state says is operating illegally following Enbridge’s refusal to comply with a shutdown order from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who ordered the state to revoke the company’s easement to use the lakebed in November.
Enbridge retrieves 15,000-pound anchor from Straits of Mackinac - Enbridge Energy has said it recovered a 15,000-pound anchor from between two spans of the Line 5 oil pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac. The anchor, which was left in the water Wednesday, was recovered Sunday using a crane on a barge, the company said. The anchor was left on the lake bed, about 500 feet from either span, after a cable detached that had connected the anchor to an Enbridge contractor's barge that was doing seasonal maintenance. The state directed Enbridge to retrieve the anchor last week after receiving notification from the company regarding the mishap. Enbridge has said the location of the anchor was approved by the EPA and the state but became disconnected when a shackle connecting the anchor to the cable failed after the anchor was placed on the lake bed. "Enbridge’s ongoing work to inspect, maintain and modernize our pipeline systems further ensures that Line 5 remains operating safely and reliably — helping to protect the environment while continuing to safely deliver energy to Michigan and the Great Lakes region," said Michael Barnes, a spokesman for the company. The state and Enbridge have been locked in litigation for more than a year over the future of the 68-year-old Line 5 pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac after years of concern over the possibility of an oil spill in the straits.
Indigenous activists protest Line 5 in Michigan on 20,000-mile journey to DC ⋆ Tribal citizens on a 20,000-mile, cross-country journey to highlight sacred Indigenous sites and call on President Joe Biden’s administration to protect them made their ninth and final stop in Mackinaw City this week.The activists were met and welcomed Tuesday morning by Native people from numerous tribes across Michigan, including the Sault Ste. Marie Tribe and the Bay Mills Indian Community, who together called on Biden to shut down the Enbridge-owned Line 5 oil pipeline running under the environmentally sensitive Straits of Mackinac.The effort, dubbed the “Red Road to DC,” will culminate Thursday at the National Mall in D.C., where a 25-foot, 5,000-pound totem pole carved by members of the Lummi Nation will be delivered to U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland for the Biden administration.Haaland is a member of the Laguna Pueblo tribe and the country’s first Native American cabinet secretary.The group is led by the Lummi Nation’s House of Tears Carvers, Se’Si’Le, Native Organizers Alliance, IllumiNative and the Natural History Museum.“Today we had the opportunity to welcome the Lummi Nation’s House of Tears Carvers to the Odawa, Ojibwe and Potawatomi lands here in the Great Lakes, and here in our sacred territory at the Straits of Mackinac,” Bay Mills Tribal Chairperson Whitney Gravelle said during Tuesday’s event.“… Time and time again, we must fight for what was promised to our ancestors in the treaties.”“We aren’t the only ones at risk from the devastating effects of a pipeline spill. Fishermen, the tourism industry, our Michigan economy are all endangered if Line 5 continues to operate in our waters. President Biden must address this crisis immediately,” Gravelle continued. A spokesperson for the White House did not respond to a request for comment.
‘Do your job’: Was Line 3 message from powerful Minnesota legislator a form of intimidation — or ‘respectful’ advocacy? -In the fall of 2020, Laura Bishop, then commissioner of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, got an unusual voicemail.Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka, a Republican from East Gull Lake, had called her to urge the approval of a key water-quality permit for Enbridge Energy’s planned Line 3 oil pipeline. For years, the 337-mile pipeline across northern Minnesota has been one of the state’s most controversial environmental issues, and Enbridge needed what’s known as a 401 certification before construction could begin.“I just can’t stress enough how important it is that you do your job with these and that the permits get issued,” Gazelka told Bishop. To the majority leader, the call was an example of respectful advocacy on behalf of those who support Line 3. To Bishop, however, the voicemail was an unwelcome political intrusion: a threat from one of the state’s most powerful lawmakers to remove her from office if an environmental review based on science and law halted the pipeline project. The MPCA ultimately granted Enbridge’s permit in November of 2020, a decision Bishop stands by and said wasn’t influenced by Gazelka. But earlier this month,Bishop resigned rather than face a Senate confirmation vote, a move that sparked debate over whether Republicans were conducting proper oversight or politicizing a scientific agency in their scrutiny of the MPCA.Either way, the voicemail, released by the MPCA, is an unusual window into the acrimonious relationship between Senate Republicans and the agency, as well as behind-the-scenes machinations at the Minnesota Capitol.
Judge issues restraining order against Minnesota sheriff in ongoing dispute with Line 3 protesters -A judge has granted Line 3 protesters' request for a temporary restraining order against officials in northern Minnesota's Hubbard County, amid an ongoing dispute over access to property used as a protest camp. District Court Judge Jana Austad issued the order on Friday against Hubbard County and specifically Sheriff Cory Aukes and Land Commissioner Mark Lohmeier, barring authorities from "barricading, obstructing, or otherwise interfering with access to the property" near Menahga, Minn., that's being used by Line 3 opponents. "Plaintiffs allege that the Hubbard County Sheriff's Department has been blockading and restricting access to the property in such a way as to make it practically impossible for the property owner, assignees and guests to enjoy the property. This is substantial violation of plaintiffs’ right to the use and enjoyment of the property," Austad wrote in granting the order, continuing: "The alleged conduct of the Hubbard County Sheriff's Department could also, if established, be a deprivation of constitutional rights." Aukes told the Star Tribune that he'll appeal the temporary restraining order. The request for a temporary restraining order accompanied a civil complaint filed July 16 by, among other plaintiffs, Indigenous leader Winona LaDuke who is executive director of the group Honor the Earth. According to the complaint, LaDuke acquired the property near Menahga in 2018 and was granted continued use of a long-standing driveway easement across a strip of county-owned land; the parcel has no other access. The property’s title was transferred to a different organization last November, and the county contends the easement is no longer valid. LaDuke and the other plaintiffs say the easement “as approved by the County Board is unrestricted or perpetual in duration, with no provisions for its extinguishment or reversion except for ‘non-use.’ ”
Court Stops Police From Blockading Line 3 Protester Camp in 'Huge Legal Win' for Anti-Pipeline Activists - In a development progressives called a "huge legal win in the fight against Line 3," a Minnesota court on Friday ordered police in Hubbard County to stop impeding access to the Giniw Collective's camp, where anti-pipeline activists have been organizing opposition to Enbridge's multibillion-dollar tar sands project.The ruling comes less than a week after Tara Houska, an Indigenous rights attorney and founder of the Giniw Collective, and Winona LaDuke, an environmental justice advocate and co-founder of Honor the Earth, filedfor a temporary restraining order against Hubbard County, Sheriff Cory Aukes, and the local land commissioner in northern Minnesota."We want to thank the court for informing Hubbard County about the rights of property owners, and hope that the sheriff's continued preoccupation with the repression of water protectors can be focused on real criminals," LaDuke said Friday in a statement. Last month, Aukes unlawfully blockaded a 90-year-old driveway that serves as the only means of entry and exit to the Giniw Collective's camp, which is a convergence point for Indigenous-led protests against the expansion of the Line 3 pipeline. Police officers also cited and arrested individuals who attempted to use the driveway to travel to and from the camp. According to the Center for Protest Law and Litigation, which represented the plaintiffs alongside EarthRights International and local counsel Jason Steck: Under the pretext that the small portion of the driveway extending from the camp's private property onto Hubbard County property is now suddenly a "trail" and not designated for vehicular traffic local sheriffs have either physically blocked access, at times by forming a line of over 20 officers, several armed with clubs, or issued citations to water protectors who have driven vehicles on the driveway, even when delivering food, water, or other necessary supplies. The sheriffs' departments in the region are being paid by funds from the Enbridge pipeline corporation for their time spent acting against the pipeline's opponents through a "Public Safety Escrow Fund." Enbridge has paid more than $1 million to "reimburse" local sheriffs' departments, effectively privatizing Minnesota's public police forces in service to efforts to repress opposition to the pipeline. In response to the court's ruling, Houska said "Just because the Hubbard County sheriff and Hubbard County attorney are opposed to Native people protecting our homelands should not mean they can engage in violent, unlawful repression without consequence," . "Giniw Collective is glad to have rightful access to our home back." By granting the plaintiffs' motion for a temporary restraining order (pdf), the court prohibited the county's law enforcement officials from "barricading, obstructing, or otherwise interfering with access to" the camp, and from arresting, threatening to arrest, or issuing citations to passersby, unless requested by the property owner or authorized users.
Sheriff will appeal order to stop blocking property used by Line 3 opponents - – A Minnesota district judge has issued a temporary restraining order against the Hubbard County sheriff, ruling that the county must stop obstructing access to a property used by opponents of Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline project. Winona LaDuke and Tara Houska, two leaders of protests against the oil pipeline, recently sued Hubbard County and Sheriff Cory Aukes for repeatedly blocking a driveway to a home near Menahga in north-central Minnesota. The property is one of several camps near the pipeline route used by Line 3 protesters. Houska, the house’s tenant and caretaker, and LaDuke say that on June 28, Sheriff’s Office squad cars arrived at the home, and its occupants were told their driveway would soon be “barricaded.” Sheriffs’ deputies have continued to obstruct access to the property, the lawsuit said. Austad ordered the authorities to stop “barricading, obstructing or otherwise interfering with access to the property.” Deputies also must stop issuing citations or arresting people for their presence on the driveway unless they have a valid warrant. Aukes said he will appeal the judge’s order and that deputies “are not blocking” the driveway.
Authorities arrest Line 3 pipeline protesters near Thief River Falls – Authorities have arrested 29 protesters at the Red Lake Treaty Camp south of Thief River Falls. The protesters, who have had an encampment there for months, claim Enbridge Energy continues to violate reserved rights under an 1863 treaty by drilling its controversial Line 3 pipeline along the Red Lake River.The highway patrol closed Highway 32 between Thief River Falls and St. Hilaire Friday for 8 hours over safety concerns because the roadway was congested with construction, protestors, campsites, and vehicles near the campsites. The protesters were ordered to disperse peacefully or face arrest.Pennington County Sheriff Ray Kuznia said most of the individuals arrested on Friday had bonded out, however, the 22 arrested on Saturday remained for court appearances Monday on various charges, including trespassing and interfering with a peace officer.Kuznia said his office has received assistance from Roseau, Marshall, Clay, Dakota, Washington, and Anoka counties and 50 to 60 officers from the State Patrol and the DNR. Over the weekend, Pennington County opened an Emergency Operations Center on the floor of Ralph Engelstad Arena in Thief River Falls. It’s handling communications used by law enforcement at the site of the protest.
An Indigenous leader explains the Line 3 protests, and pipelines under Biden. After five years of constant protests, the movement to Stop Line 3, a proposed pipeline in Canada and the Midwest, has been rapidly escalating in the last couple of months. Made up primarily of Indigenous organizers, tribal governments, and climate justice organizers, the group is dedicated to fighting against the Canadian multinational fossil fuel company Enbridge, which is building the pipeline. A supposed replacement of the existing Line 3—a crude oil pipeline which stretches from Alberta, Canada to northwest Wisconsin—the new, bigger Line 3 is Enbridge’s largest ever project. If constructed, it would cut through three different Indigenous reservations in Minnesota, including land that the Treaty of 1855 gave the Ojibwe people the right to use for hunting, fishing, and gathering wild rice.The climate and Indigenous justice groups cite Indigenous sovereignty, land and water rights, treaty rights, climate change, the financial risk of investing in a dying industry, and the harmful impacts of construction and spills on both Indigenous communities and the environment all as reasons to put a halt to the pipeline’s construction. But the state police force and Enbridge itself have been responding aggressively to their actions. Just this past week, Minnesota law enforcement (to which Enbridge has paid a hefty sum of about $750,000 as of April in order to police Line 3 protesters) arrested seven elder women protesting the pipeline in Wadena County.Among those seven women was Winona LaDuke, an Ojibwe leader and Indigenous rights organizer who was jailed for three nights. A former Green Party vice presidential candidate and activist who has been fighting the construction of the new Line 3 pipeline replacement for nearly a decade, LaDuke has been appointed guardian ad litem for Shell River—which the completed pipeline would cross in five places—by both the 1855 Treaty Commission and her tribe.Slate spoke with LaDuke about organizing on the frontlines of Stop Line 3 and about protesters’ demands for the Biden administration when it comes to climate justice and Indigenous rights. This conversation has been condensed and edited for clarity.
Minnesota state lawmakers urge Pollution Control Agency to halt Line 3 permits after spills, drought — Thirty-two state legislators have signed a letter requesting the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) temporarily suspend permits for Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline replacement project in light of widespread drought throughout the state, as well as recent drilling fluid spills at construction sites. In the letter dated Tuesday, July 27, the state representatives and senators implored MPCA to release further information on nine reported spill incidents along the Line 3 construction path, saying the agency’s “transparency throughout this process is instrumental in addressing these incidents and enforcement violations.” They requested details in writing on the timing of each incident and when the state was made aware, and whether drilling has resumed at those sites. And because of Minnesota’s statewide drought, the lawmakers wrote that they’re concerned over whether any spills can be adequately diluted by water in impacted waterways and wetlands. Juli Kellner, a spokesperson for Enbridge, said in an emailed response Wednesday, July 28, that the drilling fluid used at the sites is a nontoxic bentonite clay solution approved by MPCA and the state Department of Natural Resources. When spills are detected, she said drilling is “ immediately shut down” and crews clean up and contain the spills as required in their permits. In all nine of the recent incidents, she said MPCA and DNR were notified and cleanups were monitored by inspectors and third-party agency monitors.As for drought concerns, she said this summer’s hot, dry conditions “are concerning to everyone,” and that Enbridge is working with state agencies to protect and conserve water. DNR has already suspended the use of some water sources in particularly dry watersheds.
Secretary Haaland, Colorado's epic drought highlights the need to end fossil fuel extraction -Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is visiting Colorado this week so she can see up close how heat, drought and rampant fossil-fuel extraction have ravaged once-beautiful parts of our state. When she returns to Washington, D.C., Haaland will have all the more evidence to support a ban on new oil and gas leases on public lands and a managed transition away from fossil fuels. The Biden administration’s review of what drilling and fracking on public lands is doing to the climate, if done correctly, will show that any new extraction would run counter to climate science and catastrophic to the planet.On her first day in Colorado, Haaland spoke powerfully about the worsening drought conditions ravaging Colorado and the West.“Drought doesn’t just impact one community,” she said. “It affects all of us, from farmers and ranchers to city dwellers and Indian tribes. We all have a role to use water wisely and manage our resources with every community in mind.”Without a doubt, water is the lifeblood of the North Fork Valley, where I live. The North Fork, on Colorado’s Western Slope, is home to the state’s largest concentration of organic farms. Our produce, wines and cheeses fill dinner plates and glasses in homes and restaurants across the West. But erratic frosts, prolonged droughts and extreme weather are making that harder to do. This year some farmers have already run out of water and drinking water concerns are mounting. No water, no food. No water, no wildlife. No water, no life. When we run out of water, others do, too. The Gunnison River Basin, which feeds the Colorado River, is in our backyard. The Colorado River supplies 40 million downstream users and it’s drying out as temperatures warm. Colorado River flows, already at record shortages, are expected to drop precipitously in coming decades. And we’re feeling the heat on the Western Slope, having already seen warming of more than 2 degrees Celsius, double the global average and making our region one of the country’s largest climate hot spots. But even as warming tightens its grip on our region and North Fork farms fields go fallow for lack of water, federal agencies are approving more fossil fuel extraction.That’s a grave mistake. We must urgently confront the climate emergency and we should start now by banning new leasing on public lands. In the North Fork Valley, there are more than 100,000 acres of oil and gas leases in the middle of the watershed and the county’s climate hotspot. The climate can’t afford any new fracking and drilling and Colorado certainly won’t have the water to support it.
Review of U.S. federal oil, gas leasing program being finalized internally –Haaland - A much-anticipated US Department of Interior review of the federal oil and gas leasing program is under final internal review and is expected to be released "very soon " , a decHome Secretary Deb Haaland said during a Senate hearing on Tuesday. President Joe Biden announced the review shortly time after taking office in what was widely seen as a first step in delivering on his campaign pledge to ban new federal drilling leases and rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade to tackle climate change. Haaland had previously said the review would be completed by "early summer. " The Biden administration earlier this year stopped holding government drilling auctions, pending review, but a federal judge ruled last month that its rental freeze was illegal. Wyoming Senato r John Barrasso, a Republican, asked Haaland during the hearing of the Senate committeeorial energy if the Home Office reschedules two lease sales that would have taken place in the first two quarters of the year. She has not commented on what the ministry plans to do with these lease sales due to an ongoing litigation.
Pipeline to store synfuels plant's carbon emissions locally approved by North Dakota regulators - North Dakota regulators have approved a permit for a pipeline that will transport carbon dioxide captured from Basin Electric’s Great Plains Synfuels Plant to a nearby site for underground storage.The pipeline will extend 7 miles from the Mercer County plant to a series of proposed wells where CO2 would be injected deep into rock formations below the earth’s surface.“By mile, this is a short pipeline but I would argue it is one of the most important pipeline projects North Dakota has seen because it does signal the next chapter in energy development,” said Brian Kroshus, a member of the Public Service Commission, which voted unanimously Wednesday to permit the project.The synfuels plant produces synthetic natural gas derived from lignite coal, along with a host of other products. Basin subsidiary Dakota Gasification Co. already pipes carbon dioxide generated by the plant north to old oil fields in Canada, where it’s used to boost oil output. Basin says the synfuels plant’s carbon capture equipment is working at about two-thirds of its capacity to meet the demand of Canadian customers, and more of the gas could be stored locally.State leaders have embraced the idea of capturing carbon dioxide from industrial sources and injecting it underground for permanent storage, rather than allow it to be released into the atmosphere where it contributes to climate change.
Regulators plan to fine pipeline operators for safety issues(AP) — Federal regulators say they plan to fine the operator of the Dakota Access Pipeline $93,200 over pipeline safety violations. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration say the violations pertain to physical aspects of the pipeline and monitoring systems. There is no indication any of the violations have resulted in oil leakage. Some of the violations cited by the agency include improper placement of valves for storm water drainage on tanks at six facilities in western North Dakota, as well as a failure to correct a condition related to the line’s ability to relieve pressure, the Bismarck Tribune reported. The pressure issue is partly to blame for triggering more than 9,000 alarms within Energy Transfer’s systems since oil began flowing through Dakota Access in 2017. Regulators also say Energy Transfer failed to adequately prepare and follow its operations and maintenance manual. The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe is among opponents of the pipeline who fear an oil spill could contaminate their reservation. “It’s not surprising to learn that the operator of the Dakota Access Pipeline has failed to adhere to a long list of safety regulations,” Standing Rock Vice Chairman Ira Taken Alive said in a statement. “An oil spill from this pipeline would be devastating to our drinking water supply and that of millions of people downstream, placing us all in harm’s way.” The company has 30 days to reply to the agency or request a hearing on the matter.
Dakota Access faces fines, compliance orders for safety violations..More than 9,500 alarms were set off in a two-year period due to a wildly fluctuating nitrogen-reliant pressure relief valve system on the Dakota Access pipeline, according to a notice of probable violation and proposed civil penalty issued by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Local climate conditions were causing rapid pressure fluctuations on a nitrogen supply that is used to regulate the valves. That caused thousands of alarms from 2017 to 2019 at Johnson’s Corner, Watford City, Trenton, Ramburg, Stanley, and Epping. Allowing the valve set points to fluctuate for such a long period of time was one of seven probable violations listed by PHMSA in the notice, which proposes a fine of $93,200 for two of the violations. First, for failing to properly update its operations and maintenance manual, which referenced procedures no longer in the manual that were still being used. Second, for not enhancing the company’s public awareness program beyond the baseline, 660-foot buffer area, which is required for high consequence areas. There’s no indication any of the violations caused any oil to leak. Dakota Access has 30 days to respond to the notice of probable violations, or request a hearing on it. Two of violations won’t require further enforcement action, PHMSA decided. Those were at the Johnson Corner Pump Station, which had been set at 1355 instead of 1335, a limit that ensures Maximum Operating Pressure does not exceed 110 percent downstream, corrected in June of 2019. And a missed inspection at Redfield Station of the overpressure safety valve, which should have been done in 2018. The inspection was completed Jan. 28, 2019. PHMSA issued compliance orders for the public awareness violation as well as the remaining violations, which included not placing stormwater drainage valves correctly, allowing nitrogen-regulated overpressure protection valves to fluctuate too widely too often for too long a time, and failing to continually re-evaluate its spill modeling and update its Integrity Management program to reflect operating experience. Energy Transfer spokeswoman Lisa Coleman said the violations were identified in a standard audit completed in early 2019. “All but one of the items identified have already been addressed (or are in the process of being addressed),” she told the Williston Herald. “DAPL will address shortly the one remaining issue that PHMSA responded to for the first time this week. This all reflects the continued commitment to safely operating the Dakota Access Pipeline, including the crossing at Lake Oahe. As always, we appreciate PHMSA’s focus on the safety of pipelines across the country.”
Keene oil well blowout: still on fire nearly five days later - A fire on an oil well site on the Little Missouri National Grassland has been on fire for nearly five days.Keene Fire Department, McKenzie County Rural Fire, U.S. Forest Service USDA Forest Service, McKenzie County Emergency Management are all on scene.The McKenzie County Sheriff’s Office says it’s also working closely with the permit holder, Petro-Hunt Corporation, and a local private contractor, Wild Well Control, to keep the fire contained to the well-pad.Little Missouri National Grassland is the largest grassland in the country, and the well-pad fire has not spread to the national grassland.“The fact that it has stayed contained to the well is super big,” said McKenzie County Deputy Sheriff and Public Information Officer Kari Stuart.Stuart says law enforcement remains posted at road barriers on 103 V Avenue and 47th M Street NW. Local residents and visitors are asked to avoid the area.There have been no injuries and there is no danger to the surrounding area at this time.The cause of the fire is under investigation
U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico established a new monthly record in June 2021 - Natural gas pipeline exports from the United States to Mexico surpassed 7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) on multiple days during June, according to data from Wood Mackenzie. The highest amount of pipeline exports, 7.4 Bcf/d, was sent out on June 17. Over the past few years, Mexico has expanded its natural gas pipeline infrastructure and has relied increasingly on imported natural gas from U.S. pipelines. Pipeline imports accounted for 76% of Mexico’s total natural gas supply in June 2021, compared with 40% in June 2015. Mexico has reduced both its natural gas production and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a share of its total natural gas supply. U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 6.8 Bcf/d in June 2021, up 25% from June 2020 and 44% more than the previous five-year (2016–2020) monthly average. We expect these record-high flows, which were driven by increased power demand, high temperatures, and greater industrial demand in June, to continue through the summer. New pipeline additions that went into service during 2020 and in the first half of 2021 increased the volume of natural gas flowing to natural gas-fired power plants, industrial plants, and pipeline interconnections throughout Mexico. Two cross-border pipelines drove the growth: the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan Pipeline, which has a capacity of 2.6 Bcf/d and delivers natural gas from the U.S. border at Brownsville, Texas, to Tuxpan in Veracruz, Mexico, and the Trans-Pecos Pipeline (part of the Wahalajara system), which has a capacity of 1.4 Bcf/d and delivers natural gas to the U.S. border at Presidio, Texas. The Sur de Texas-Tuxpan Pipeline increased flows to an estimated 1.7 Bcf/d in June 2021, compared with year-ago levels of 0.8 Bcf/d. The pipeline’s volume increased because of expanded infrastructure in Mexico, which has allowed more natural gas to flow to power plants in the Mexico City region and to Mérida markets in the Yucatán Peninsula. The Trans-Pecos Pipeline increased flows to the Wahalajara pipeline system to 0.8 Bcf/d, compared with year-ago levels of 0.2 Bcf/d. This pipeline connects the Waha Hub in West Texas to Guadalajara and other population centers in West-Central Mexico. Some of this increase is the result of the increased flow capacity on the Villa de Reyes-Aguascalientes-Guadalajara Pipeline (VAG) in Central Mexico and subsequent delivery points that entered service when the pipeline was completed in October 2020.
Private companies in Mexico hit production record as Pemex struggles to meet goals — Crude production by private operators in Mexico reached a new record in June as state oil company Pemex struggles to stop the decline of its own output, official data shows. Independent exploration and production companies increased their crude oil output to little under 70,000 b/d in June, the largest reading to date, data from the National Hydrocarbons Commission showed July 22. The increase came as Eni, Petrofac and Hokchi Energy, the three largest producers, raised their output, the data showed. The companies together account for almost 50,000 b/d, the data shows. According to data from the commission, or CNH, based on companies' existing plans, production by independent producers is expected to increase to 280,000 b/d by 2024, when this administration ends, and to over 400,000 at its peak in 2028. The increase in the private companies' output comes as Pemex struggles to stop the decline of its production, which in the past years has been anchored by five fields, the data shows. Maloob, Zaap, Ayatsil, Xanab and Ku, the largest producing fields in Pemex's portfolio, were responsible for 808,000 b/d or 48% of the total production at the state company, the data shows. The company has a total of 209 fields, the data shows. Pemex struggling to meet own production goals Pemex has been unable even to meet its own production goals, which have been revised down two times during the administration of President Andres Manuel Lopes Obrador. Upon taking office in late 2018, Lopez Obrador claimed under his administration Pemex would be able to bring production back to 2.4 million b/d to fuel the development of the country, a figure not seen since 2014. The president lowered it in March to 2 million b/d, arguing it was better not to over exploit the reservoirs for the benefit of future generations. This week, Mexico told OPEC members it would not be able to reach 2 million b/d and would try to average 1.753 b/d until the end of 2022..
Natural Gas Deficit Causes Prices To Soar - Natural gas prices are rising across Europe and Asia due to tighter supply of the commodity, lower production in Europe, and lower exports from Russia, the Financial Times reports, noting the supply crunch may intensify in the coming weeks.In Europe, the report notes, prices for natural gas have hit 40 euros per mWh for the first time ever, with UK gas prices at the highest in 16 years. This is equal to approximately $14 per million British thermal units. In Asia, gas prices have hit $15 per mmBtu.The price situation may worsen still, according to analysts.“If anything it’s surprising there hasn’t been more concern,” Tom Marzec-Manser at ICIS told the FT. “In terms of additional supply there aren’t many options on the table globally. Russia is really the only discretionary source of supplies out there but we don’t know when additional deliveries might start. So traders around the world, from Japan to Brazil, are starting to watch European prices too.”Demand for natural gas has been on a strong rebound globally. And the economic recovery has not been the only factor. In Brazil, for instance, LNG imports hit the highest ever because droughts have reduced the country’s hydropower capacity, according to the FT. in Europe, the long winter emptied gas storage facilities, and they have yet to be replenished. In Asia, the strong economic recovery has coupled with a seasonal peak in demand during the summer to push prices higher still. For some, this has been good news: U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas reached a record high during the first half of the year, at an average of 9.6 billion cu ft daily. Asia remained the top destination for U.S. LNG exports from January through May in 2021, accounting for 46 percent, the EIA has estimated. Asia was followed by Europe with a 37-percent share of American LNG exports.
UK gas exports to EU to stay low - UK gas flows to the EU could stay minimal in August-September, as almost all surplus gas could be added to mid-range storage. Prices favour strong Norwegian exports to Europe in August-September, which could boost the UK's supply. But this could be more than offset by sustained low regasification and domestic output, leaving the UK with less surplus gas than in previous years. And firms may continue to prioritise directing any spare supply into mid-range storage rather than exporting it to mainland Europe, similar to July. Barely any cross-Channel flows could curb supply available to add to EU storage compared with recent summers, when summer exports had been consistently quick. That said, the slump in BBL and Interconnector exports this summer may have been partly the result of a reconfiguration of flows around northwest Europe, with more LNG going directly to mainland Europe, which may otherwise have been sent to the UK and then on through the Interconnector to Belgium or the BBL to the Netherlands. The lack of a UK short-haul mechanism — discounting bookings at entry and exit terminals in close proximity — has made exports to the EU much less economical this summer than in previous years (see UK flows graph). A new short-haul tariff regime will be introduced from 1 October. While Troll and Oseberg output being maximised could boost the UK's Norwegian receipts compared with previous years, supply from other sources could stay weak. Northwest European prompt prices holding substantial premiums to respective front-summer contracts in recent weeks has incentivised Norwegian state-controlled Equinor to maximise production from the flexible Troll and Oseberg fields (see Norwegian July exports graph). Norwegian output could slip in August-September — albeit still remaining well above previous years — as Troll constraints are expected to reduce available capacity on most days. This could drive Norwegian production down to slightly below 310mn m³/d in August and 320mn m³/d in September, assuming prices continue to incentivise maximising flexible output (see Troll maintenance graph). Cross-channel differentials favour deliveries to the EU ahead of the UK in August-September. But even assuming EU flows are largely maximised, this could leave just under 60mn m³/d for the UK in August and about 70mn m³/d in September.
Oil giant Shell raises dividend and launches $2 billion share buyback as commodity prices soar— Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell on Thursday reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings, lending further support to the energy major's plans to reduce net debt and reward investors.The Anglo-Dutch company reported adjusted earnings of $5.5 billion for the three months through to the end of June. That compared with $638 millionover the same period a year earlier and $3.2 billion for the first quarter of 2021.Analysts had expected second-quarter adjusted earnings to come in at $5.1 billion, according to Refinitiv.Shell boosted its dividend for the second consecutive quarter and announced the launch of a $2 billion share buyback program that it aims to complete by the end of the year.The dividend rose to 24 cents in the second quarter, up 38% from the first three months of the year. It comes a year after the company moved to cut its dividend to shareholders for the first time since World War II."We have to make sure that our current shareholder base is pleased with what we do in terms of payouts," Shell CEO Ben van Beurden told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday, reflecting on the firm's plans to step up its shareholder distributions. "We have to have a strong cash generative business that also funds the company for the future, but at the same time we have to build a business that is future-proof."The results reflect a broader trend across the oil and gas industry, as energy majors seek to reassure investors they have gained a stable footing amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. France's TotalEnergies and Norway's Equinorhave also announced share buyback programs.Share prices of the world's largest oil and gas majors have not yet followed an improvement in the earnings outlook, however, and the industry still faces a host of uncertainties and challenges.Shares of Shell were up over 4.5% during early afternoon trade in London. The oil and gas company has seen its stock price rise more than 17% year-to-date, having collapsed almost 45% in 2020.Shell's financial results come as oil and gas prices took another step up in recent months. International benchmark Brent crude futures rose to an average of $69 a barrel in the second quarter, up from an average of $61 in the first three months of the year. The oil contract was last seen trading at $75.38.Oil prices have rebounded to reach multi-year highs in recent months and all three of the world's main forecasting agencies — OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration — now expect a demand-led recovery to pick up speed in the second half of 2021.It follows a year in which the head of the IEA had suggested may come to represent the worst in the history of oil markets. The oil and gas industry was sent into a tailspin in 2020 as the spread of Covid-19 coincided with a historic fuel demand shock, plunging commodity prices, unprecedented write-downs and tens of thousands of job cuts.
Gazprom trunk gas pipeline ablaze after leak in Russia (Reuters) - A trunk pipeline belonging to Russian gas giant Gazprom leaked and caught ablaze in the Perm region on Monday but no one has been hurt, the company said.Part of the Urengoy-Center 2 gas pipeline was ruptured and caught fire near the river Sylva, which is about 1,390 km (860 miles) east of Moscow, Gazprom said. The company added that gas was being supplied to customers via parallel pipelines.
Rosneft announces second round of its 6-month tender for Urals, CPC Blend oil - Russia's state oil giant Rosneft has announced the second round of its tender to sell between 2.52 million tonnes and 11.28 million tonnes of Urals oil loading from the state's ports between October 2021 and March 2022, traders said on Wednesday. Along with Urals oil the producer is also selling up to 1.35 million tonnes of CPC Blend crude oil loading from Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka over the same period. The tender participants were advised to improve their bids made in the first round of the tender that closed last week.The volumes offered are the same as in the previous tender for April-September 2021. The tender closes on Aug. 4 at 1400 Moscow time (1100 GMT). The results will be announced to participants no later than Aug. 31, the invitation said.
Risk of major oil spill ashore Karachi beach imminent - - Danger of a major oil spill ashore the Karachi Seaview beach is imminent largely for lack of efforts to salvage merchant ship Heng Tong 77 which had drifted aground in shallow waters last Wednesday.Industry sources told The Nation on Saturday that risk of oil spill from the Panama flagged ship is now on horizon because of lack of efforts to refloat ill-fated vessel.In a related development Karachi Port Trust (KPT) which operates the Karachi Port has taken some preventive measures to contain the oil spill from the ship. Heng Tong 77 drifted aground on a beach in Karachi area in the morning Jul 21, after she dragged anchor in rough weather. Apparently owned by a Hong Kong shipping company, the ship was anchored off Karachi Port for the purpose of crew change before it lost anchors due to rough weather conditions.The 98 metres in length and 20 metres wide ship, with a capacity of 3,600 dead weight tonnage, said to be built in 2010, was waiting for a crew change outside the Karachi Harbour while on its way to Turkey from China when a mild sea storm caused it to lose its anchors and start drifting towards the shore. By the time the Karachi Port Trust (KPT) got to know of the situation it was too late as the ship was already in shallow waters. It is said that the Karachi Harbour’s navigation channel has not been impacted by the ship’s floating off to shore. By Friday evening, the KPT authorities had deployed oil booms around the affected area to contain the damage in case of any spillage. Earlier on Thursday, Federal Minister for Maritime Affairs Ali Haider Zaidi also visited the beach to see the stranded vessel up close. He said that the ship’s getting stuck at the beach had nothing to do with the KPT management but now it was here KPT and the Port Qasim Authority, too, were here to extend their expertise if required and requested by the ship-owner. The minister was very clear that all consequential marine and environmental damages, if any, will be on account of the ship-owner. He said that under no circumstances will he allow the ship to leave Pakistani waters till they have paid their dues.
Rescue operation launched for cargo ship stuck near Sea View - A rescue operation for the cargo ship stuck near Karachi’s Sea View for the last five days will finally be launched today (Monday), Federal Minister for Maritime Affairs Ali Zaidi announced on Sunday.“The owner [of the vessel] has nominated Bharia Marine Services as their agent in Pakistan,” he tweeted. “Rescue tugs will arrive early Monday and, along with our tugs, will start the operation.”A Chinese expert has been flown in by the owner of the ship to monitor the operation. Tong 77 departed from the Chennai port for Istanbul. On July 18, it stopped in Karachi for staff changes. The high tides pushed it towards the coast, a few kilometres away from Sea View. Experts of the Karachi Port Trust and Pakistan Navy have warned of the shipping breaking down which will result in environmental hazards, such as oil spills in the ocean. According to Zaidi, the ship’s engines are running and its captain has not yet given an SOS call. KPT has activated oil spill response teams at Sea View since Saturday. A 200 meters floatation boom has been deployed along the starboard side and the ship is being monitored 24/7 by the KPT Marine Pollution Control and Port Security personnel, the minister said.
Pakistani authorities plan to remove fuel from stranded ship -Pakistani port authorities plan to remove fuel from a merchant ship that ran aground in rough seas last week before making a salvage attempt in the middle of next month, an official said on Monday. Panama registered M.V. Heng Tong 77 was anchored in Pakistan’s territorial waters off Karachi for a crew change on July 21 when it lost anchors due to rough seas and drifted towards the shore, Karachi Port Trust (KPT) said. “By the time the vessel informed KPT of her drifting, it was already in shallow waters,” the port authority said in a tweet. The ship is carrying 118 tons of bunker fuel. The port authorities have given notice to its owners to take out bunkers containing fuel within 48 hours. “If they don’t, the port authority will remove ships bunkers, we cannot take any risk with its oil,” Mahmood Moulvi, special assistant to the Prime Minister on Maritime Affairs, told reporters on Monday. “We are taking all measures to avoid the spill of even one drop of oil at our beach,” he said. An attempt to salvage the ship could not be made before Aug. 15, Moulvi added.
India June crude imports hit 8-month low as virus dampens demand -India's crude oil imports in June dropped to their lowest level in eight months as refiners cut down processing in the face of a tumultuous second wave of the coronavirus, government data showed on Wednesday. Crude oil imports rose in June by 16.3% to 15.90 million tonnes from a year earlier, but dropped 7.8% from May, data on the website of the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) showed."Refiners reduced runs after the COVID-19 cases increased in April-May, which might have contributed to lower imports," said Refinitiv analyst Ehsan Ul Haq, adding that the nation's vaccine programme is the key to future demand."If we don't see another wave, demand will recover significantly in the fourth quarter of this year." India's coronavirus caseload of 31.48 million infections is the world's second-highest behind the United States.Oil product imports rose 11% to 3.51 million tonnes from the previous month, while refined products exports slipped about 4% to 5.51 million tonnes in June.Diesel shipments were down 3.8% from the preceding month, while petrol exports slipped 14%. India imports and exports refined fuels as it holds surplus refining capacity.India's crude oil imports extend slide in June https://graphics.reuters.com/INDIA-FUEL/IMPORTS/egpbknjaovq/chart.png The world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, India has decided to commercialise half of its current strategic petroleum reserves as the nation looks to enhance private participation in the building of new storage facilities, two government sources told Reuters.
Abandoned Tanker Sinks Off Yemen, Oil Leak Hits Nature Reserve -– A long-abandoned oil tanker has sunk off the south coast of Yemen near the Port of Aden in the Gulf of Aden leaving an oil slick for 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) along the shore, says Mohammed Amzarba, CEO of the Aden Ports Administration. Amzarba told the Yemen state media agency SABA Thursday that his team is having trouble refloating the sunken oil tanker Dia despite several attempts since last week when it sank off Yemen’s southern coast. The Dia had been moored and abandoned since 2014 at Al-Bariqah, a dumping ground west of the main Port of Aden where a cluster of other dilapidated ships still remain. The tanker began to sink on July 18, officials said. Yemen’s Public Authority for Environmental Protection last week issued a warning through SABA that spoke of a “catastrophe in the marine environment” as a result of the sinking of the Dia. The Yemeni government convened an environmental rescue committee which reported that oil leaking from the Dia had reached a nearby nature reserve, causing dead fish to wash up on the shore. Ahmed Fahim, a member of the panel, blamed authorities for not undertaking precautionary maintenance of these derelict vessels as they are a threat to the marine environment. Today the government’s preliminary assessment shows that the oil spill damage extends to a once vibrant nature reserve – the al-Housoua, or al-Huswah, Nature Reserve, on Yemen’s southern tip. Before the Yemen Civil War, the al-Huswah Nature Reserve was visited by large swarms of migratory birds of some 150 different species, but more recently only about 50 species still visit the reserve, according to local officials. They said the situation of this nature reserve had deteriorated even before the oil slick and it faces the risk of abandonment for lack of government support. Yemen’s Public Authority for Environmental Protection, PAEP, blames the sinking of the oil ship in Aden and “the continuous leakage of oil pipelines in Shabwa into the sea,” on the “aggression” of its opponents. The PAEP statement asserts that “this disaster is a major environmental crime punishable by law and a flagrant violation of Environmental Protection Law No. (26) of 1995 and in violation of the provisions of international agreements on environmental protection signed by Yemen.” Amzarba said the authorities are willing to make another effort to refloat the Dia and potentially avoid further damage. And the sinking of the Dia is not the only menace to Yemen’s marine environment. Moored off Yemen’s west coast, permanently anchored at the same location for more than 30 years without any dry-docking or shipyard repairs, is the SAFER, a Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) oil vessel Located about eight kilometers (4.8 nautical miles) southwest of the Ras Isa peninsula, the tanker is holding nearly 1.1 million barrels of oil – about four times as much oil as spilled from the Exxon Valdez into Prince William Sound, Alaska in 1989. FSO SAFER has not undergone regular maintenance since the 2015 escalation of the conflict that has torn Yemen apart. SAFER’s structure, equipment and operating systems are deteriorating, warns the United Nations, “leaving the tanker at risk of leaking, exploding or catching fire.”
Saudi Arabia's oil exports climb 147% to $16 billion in May - The value of Saudi Arabia's oil exports in May increased 147% to just over 60 billion riyals ($16 billion) from a year earlier while non-oil exports rose by 70%, official data showed on Wednesday. "Overall merchandise exports increased by 120.1% in May 2021 compared to May 2020, when international trade was impacted by COVID-related lockdowns and travel bans in numerous countries", the General Authority for Statistics said. Oil exports accounted for 73.2% of total exports, up from 65.3% in May last year. Non-oil exports rose to 22 billion riyals from 12.9 billion riyals in May 2020. Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, suffered last year as the COVID-19 pandemic hit energy demand and its state coffers as a result. China remained Saudi Arabia's main trading partner in May, with Saudi exports there corresponding to 21.4% of total exports.
Oil Futures Dip as Typhoon Snarls Southeast Asia Activity, Travel -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange slid in early trade Monday after heavy flooding and typhoons in China prompted concerns over short-term demand weakness in the world's largest oil importing country, and as a rapidly spreading Delta variant of coronavirus led to renewed travel and mobility restrictions across several Asia-Pacific countries. Growing coronavirus outbreaks across Asia and the Western Pacific prompted renewed restrictions on travel and business from Sydney to Bangkok, stoking concern over deteriorating fundaments for global oil demand. Thailand and Malaysia both reported a record number of new infections Friday, while Indonesia registered its highest single-day increase in COVID-related deaths. New Zealand announced last week that it was suspending a travel bubble with pandemic-hit Australia until the health crisis there is resolved."Southeast Asia is one of the least vaccinated regions in the world," said Yasir Arafat, a regional health adviser, adding that "it also has an extremely low testing rate, so it's likely that things are even worse than the data suggests."Heavy flooding and gusty winds from Typhoon In-fa prompted Chinese officials to shut down the Shanghai municipality -- one of the nation's largest city. According to China's National Meteorological Center, provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu, as well as all of eastern China, will be continually affected by heavy winds and torrential rains over the next couple of days. Typhoon has also disrupted supply of electricity and network of subway as well as all above ground traffic, with some roads reportedly submerged with water. The two airports in the city cancelled all flights on Sunday, with hundreds of more flights grounded on Monday.In financial markets, U.S. equity futures retreated from record highs on Monday ahead of a busy week for economic data and potentially game-changing policy meeting from the Federal Reserve. Should Fed Chairman Jerome Powell use Wednesday afternoon's news conference to signal any change to the central bank's accommodative policy, investors would likely reassess growth prospects, inflation, and earnings expectations for the rest of the year. Rising COVID-19 cases and higher-than-expected inflation data have already tamed some of those expectations.
Oil steadies in undersupplied market but coronavirus cases weigh (Reuters) -Oil prices steadied on Monday after a choppy session as the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant stoked fears about fuel demand, but losses were limited by forecasts that crude supply will be tight the rest of the year. Brent crude futures rose 40 cents, or 0.5%, to end the session at $74.50 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped by 16 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $71.91. Early in the session, both benchmarks fell by more than $1 a barrel. Coronavirus cases kept rising over the weekend, with some countries reporting record daily increases and extending lockdown measures. China, the world's largest crude importer, has also registered a rise in COVID-19 cases. Some fear China's oil imports could grow this year at the slowest rate in two decades despite an expected rise in refining rates in the second half, due to Beijing's crackdown on misuse of import quotas combined with the impact of high crude prices. "The Delta variant is still spreading and China has started to clamp down on teapots (independent refiners), so their import growth would not be that much," Reports from India also point to only muted oil demand, Commerzbank analysts said in a note. "Oil imports in June decreased to a nine-month low, while crude oil processing was only marginally above the low May level, which was influenced by the pandemic restrictions," they said. Still, both crude benchmarks last week recovered from a 7% slump early in the week and marked their first weekly gains in two to three weeks, boosted by strong U.S. demand and expectations of tight supplies. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. crude futures, declined by about 2.6 million barrels last week, traders said, citing data from Wood Mackenzie. Global oil markets are expected to remain in deficit despite a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, to raise production through the rest of the year. "The slow take-up of vaccinations will continue to limit some upside in oil demand in regions with low vaccination rates, and there will be intermittent spells in the recovery in the coming months."
Oil inches up as tight supply, vaccinations outweigh virus concerns - - Oil prices were steady on Tuesday with investors betting tight supply and rising vaccination rates will help offset any impact on demand due to surging COVID-19 cases worldwide. Brent crude futures climbed 13 cents, or 0.2per cent, to US$74.63 a barrel at 0128 GMT, extending a 0.5per cent gain on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 4 cents to US$71.95 a barrel, after losing 16 cents on Monday. Benchmark prices rose even after the United States issued travel warnings to Spain and Portugal due to rising COVID-19 cases and a White House official told Reuters that wider travel curbs will not be lifted due to the highly infectious Delta variant and rising domestic infections. In one encouraging sign, Britain reported its lowest daily total of new COVID-19 cases since July 4 on Monday, suggesting the recent surge in infections has passed its peak. Analysts tracking mobility data remain confident about fuel demand, counting on vaccinations to guard against strict new lockdowns. Global oil markets are expected to remain in deficit despite a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, to raise production through the rest of the year. ANZ Research analysts said "robust road traffic data across most major regions suggests rising infections are having minimal impact". "Investors are also encouraged by the continued restraint by U.S. shale oil producers. So far they have maintained discipline, with a focus on returns rather than growth," ANZ Research analysts said in a note. Investors are awaiting inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday for further evidence that demand is holding up. Five analysts polled by Reuters estimated, on average, that U.S. crude stocks fell by about 3.4 million barrels and gasoline stocks fell by 400,000 barrels in the week to July 23.
NYMEX Oil Futures Soften Ahead of Weekly API Inventory Data-- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Tuesday's session mixed, as traders await the weekly rundown of inventory data on U.S. crude and petroleum products supplies and a policy announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee that could signal earlier-than-expected tightening of quantitative easing programs amid rising inflation and persistent disruptions to global supply chains. The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that global inflationary pressures tied to generous stimulus schemes across industrialized nations could prove more than just transitory, forcing central banks to tighten accommodative monetary policy earlier than expected. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged earlier this month that rising inflation was uncomfortably above the levels the central bank was seeking, but resisted calls to change policy course, adding the economy is "still way off" from a full recovery.The consumer price index jumped 0.9% in June and 5.4% from the same month last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core CPI rose 4.5% from June 2020, the largest advance since November 1991."This particular inflation is just unique in history. We don't have another example of the last time we reopened a $20 trillion economy with lots of fiscal and monetary support," he said. "We are humble about what we understand."Fed officials are set to accelerate discussions this week over how and when to gradually pare their purchases of $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage securities. The central bank will release an updated policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT Wednesday followed by a closely watched news conference by Fed Chair Powell. Despite rising inflation, IMF lifted U.S. gross domestic growth this year to 7% and 4.9% in 2022, up 0.6% and 1.4% respectively from forecasts made in April. The agency gave its biggest upgrade to the United Kingdom, boosting its 2021 growth projections by 1.7% to 7%, reflecting accelerated vaccinations. Eurozone received a smaller 0.2% upgrade for 2021, weighed down by tighter quarantine restrictions during the first half of the year. IMF lowered its economic forecast for Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, and Vietnam, where recent waves of COVID-19 infections are weighing on economic activity.New coronavirus outbreaks across developing and emerging markets have forced factory and port shutdowns, further rattling global supply chains and aggravating shortages of key materials.
WTI Extends Intraday Rebound After Bigger Than Expected Crude, Gasoline Draws - Oil prices ended relatively unchanged today, despite some significant swings intraday as investors worried that global demand could be dented by surging COVID-19 cases, even though supplies are tightening and vaccination rates rising. "The API inventory data may jolt crude prices back into life," API
- Crude -4.728mm (-2.55mm exp)
- Cushing -126k
- Gasoline -6.226mm
- Distillates -1.882mm
Despite last week's surprise build, analysts expected crude to resume its series of inventory draws in the last week. Both crude and gasoline stocks saw a bigger than expected inventory drawdown... WTI was hovering around $71.80 ahead of the API data and rallied from there on the big draw...
WTI Extends Gains After Across The Board Inventory Draws --Oil prices rallied overnight as expectations (prompted by API's report last night) of inventory drawdowns dominated fears of a Delta-driven drop in demand."This price catalyst may inject some much-needed momentum into proceedings, especially after the API set a bullish tone," said Stephen Brennock of broker PVM, referring to the EIA report.But, a rising number of coronavirus cases worldwide, despite vaccination programs, has limited the upside for oil and remains a concern. EIA
- Crude -4.09mm (-2.55mm exp)
- Cushing -1.268mm
- Gasoline -2.25mm
- Distillates -3.088mm
Official EIA data confirmed API's report that inventories drew down across all segments...
Oil rises on U.S. fuel drawdowns despite surging Covid-19 cases -- Oil rose toward $75 a barrel on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories fell more sharply than analysts had forecast, bringing the market's focus back to tight supplies rather than rising coronavirus infections. Crude inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels in the week to July 23, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Gasoline and distillate fuel stocks also dropped. "A rebound in implied demand for both gasoline and distillates, as well as lower refinery runs, has encouraged decent inventory draws for both," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData. Brent crude advanced 26 cents, or 0.35%, to settle at $74.74 per barrel, after posting on Tuesday its first decline in six days. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 74 cents, or 1%, higher at $72.39 per barrel. Oil has risen 45% this year, helped by demand recovery and supply curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+. OPEC+ agreed to increase supply by 400,000 barrels per day from August, unwinding more of last year's record supply cut, but this is seen as too low by some analysts given the rebound in demand expected this year. A rising number of coronavirus cases worldwide, despite vaccination programs, has limited the upside for oil and remains a concern. A statement from a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting due at 1800 GMT is also in focus for investors. The dollar was firmer ahead of the meeting, pressuring oil as it makes crude more expensive for other currency holders. "We will be looking at today's Fed comments later in the day to provide more significant support as we anticipate additional indications of loose monetary policy,"
Oil Up, U.S. Crude Oil Supplies Drop to Lowest Level Since January 2020- Oil was up Thursday morning in Asia as the latest data showed a draw in U.S. crude oil supplies to their lowest level since January 2020.Brent oil futures were up 0.34% to $74.12 by 11:43 PM ET (3:43 AM GMT) andWTI futures gained 0.37% to $72.66. Brent and WTI futures both remained above the $70 mark.Wednesday's U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a draw of 4.089 million barrels in the week to July 23. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com predicted a 2.928-million-barrel draw, while a 2.108-million-barrel build was recorded during the previous week.Crude oil supply data released a day before by the American Petroleum Institute showed a draw of 4.728 million barrels.“The EIA oil inventory falls suggest the rise in cases of COVID-19′s Delta variant is having little impact on mobility,” ANZ analysts said in a note.Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery is still on track despite a rise in daily COVID-19 cases as it handed down its latest policy decision on Wednesday. The decision left the interest rate unchanged between 0 % and 0.25% but did not provide a timetable for asset tapering.The EIA data showed a bigger-than-expected 2.253-million-barrel draw in gasoline inventories, bringing them largely in line with pre-COVID-19 levels. However, fuel demand continues to be of concern for investors as gasoline demand in the U.S. and Europe beginning to fall.It is widely expected that fuel demand will likely not recover to its pre-COVID-19 levels until 2022 should the number of COVID-19 cases continue to increase, and the vaccination rate continues to slow down. “There appears to be quite a bit of hesitancy to push the market in either direction, leaving it in a holding pattern... there is still uncertainty over the demand picture, with COVID-19 cases continuing to tick higher,”
Oil rises as U.S. supplies tighten and dollar weakens - Oil prices rose on Thursday, with global benchmark Brent topping $75 a barrel, as supplies in the United States further tightened after shrinking to the smallest levels since January 2020. Brent crude oil futures advanced $1.31, or 1.75%, to settle at $76.05 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures settled $1.23, or 1.7%, higher at $73.62 per barrel. Data from information provider Genscape indicated that the inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub have continued to draw, traders said on Thursday. Cushing stockpiles were seen at 36.299 million barrels by Tuesday afternoon, down 360,917 barrels from July 23. The Cushing inventory data came a day after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that domestic crude inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels in the week to July 23. Cushing, delivery point for the benchmark U.S. oil futures contract, has had seven consecutive stockpile draws. In June, Brent topped $75 a barrel for the first time in more than two years, before falling back sharply this month on fears about the rapid spread of the Delta variant of coronavirus and a compromise deal by leading oil producers to increase supply. The U.S. economic recovery is still on track despite the rise in coronavirus infections, the U.S. Federal Reserve said on Wednesday in a policy statement that flagged ongoing talks around the eventual withdrawal of monetary policy support. The dollar languished a day after the Federal Reserve's remarks that it has not yet set a time to start tapering its bond purchases. The dollar index fell 0.41% to 91.882, a level last seen on June 29. A sluggish dollar hoisted the euro up 0.39% to $1.1888, its highest in more than 3 weeks. A weaker dollar can boost investor demand for dollar-denominated commodities, including crude oil. "While the risk to the demand outlook could increase due to governments across Europe reducing permission for public gatherings, we note that markets have already undergone several rounds of mobility restrictions... yet, the global recovery was not significantly derailed," analysts from Citi said in a note. Further supporting the outlook for tighter supplies was a statement from Iran blaming the United States for a pause in nuclear talks, which could mean a delay in a return of Iranian barrels to the market.
Oil Futures Slip Ahead of Expiries After Thursday's Rally - - Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange softened in early trade on the last business day of July, with all the petroleum contracts on course for 1% weekly gains spurred by supportive U.S. inventory data showing across-the-board draws from commercial crude and refined products stocks, and accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve that pledged this week to keep interest rates near zero until the U.S. economy makes a full recovery from the pandemic-induced recession. West Texas Intermediate futures were supported this week by a weaker U.S. dollar, with the dollar index falling to a one-month low 91.871 settlement Thursday under pressure from a combination of bearish factors. This week's dovish Federal Open Market Committee meeting left the benchmark interest rate unchanged between a 0% and 0.25% target range, giving no clear indication on when the central bank would start tapering its $120 billion a month in bond purchases. The greenback was further pressured Thursday after a preliminary estimate for second quarter gross domestic product showed the economy expanded by 6.5% during the April-June period, missing expectations for an 8.5% growth rate. First quarter GDP was also revised lower to 6.3% from 6.4%. Rising consumer prices and labor shortages have chipped away a larger chunk of last quarter's growth rate despite trillions of dollars spent to fuel the economy. Investors will get an update on U.S. inflation with this morning's release of Personal Income and Consumption Index for June. Consensus calls for the Bureau of Economic Analysis' PCE index to have increased 4.1% year-on-year after posting a 3.9% gain in May. The expected increase follows comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at midweek reiterating inflation is likely to be transitory and to fade over time despite running above the central bank's 2% target.Additionally, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended July 23 were bearish against expectations, with the Labor Department reporting 400,000 filings compared with market estimates for a 390,000 reading, with the previous week's initial filings revised 5,000 higher. U.S. labor market is still short 8.5 million positions compared with the before the pandemic.Overnight data from Eurozone showed the 19-member economy expanded by 2% in the second quarter, beating expectations for 1.5% growth, and following recession. The region contracted 0.3% in the first quarter and 0.6% in the final quarter of 2020, with two consecutive quarters of economic contraction a technical recession. Portugal, Austria and Latvia registered the highest quarterly growth rates. Large economies of France and Germany, however, underwhelmed expectations with a 0.9% and 1.5% growth rate, likely hit by supply constraints related to pandemic-disruptions and rising consumer process. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX September WTI slipped $0.17 to $73.46 barrel (bbl) and ICE September Brent futures hovered near $76 bbl, widening its premium against October contract to $1.05. NYMEX August RBOB contract fell 1.11 cents to $2.3403 gallon and next-month delivery September futures narrowed its discount to the expiring contact to 2.44 cents gallon. NYMEX August ULSD contract softened 0.64 cents to $2.1830 gallon, with September futures at parity with August delivery. ICE September Brent, and NYMEX August ULSD and RBOB futures expire Friday afternoon.
Oil prices finish higher to score a 4th-straight monthly gain - Oil futures settled higher on Friday, shaking off earlier declines as tight U.S. crude supplies helped lift prices up for a fourth month in a row. Prices also ended higher for the week on the back of the "favorable supply and demand dynamics," . "As concerns over the delta variant's impact on global fuel demand ease, this could support oil bulls moving forward."Last week's decline in U.S. crude inventories, meanwhile, is also supportive for oil prices as it encourages the demand outlook, he said.U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery rose 33 cents, or nearly 0.5%, to settle at $73.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest front-month finish since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Front-month prices logged a 2.6% weekly rise and a nearly 0.7% monthly climb. July was "certainly a rollercoaster" in the oil markets. The failure by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, to reach a policy agreement earlier this month lifted prices to new 2021 highs before an eventual deal to raise output caused a sharp pullback, he said.Longer-term fundamentals for oil have "deteriorated" in large part due to the OPEC+ deal to raise output, but near-term fundamentals "remain bullish as we are in a supply deficit that is expected to last through the end of the year," Richey told MarketWatch.Global benchmark Brent crude saw its front-month September contract , which expired at the end of the session, move up by 28 cents, or 0.4%, to end at $76.33 a barrel, around 3% higher for the week and up 1.6% for the month.The most-actively traded October Brent crude contract rose 31 cents, or 0.4, Friday to settle at $75.41 a barrel.Crude got a boost earlier this week as U.S. government data showed a weekly drawdown (link) in domestic crude, gasoline and distillate inventories.On Friday, petroleum product futures ended higher, with August gasoline up 0.6% at nearly $2.37 a gallon, the highest since October 2014, with prices settling 5.4% higher for the month. August heating oil added 0.5% at $2.20 a gallon, for a monthly rise of 3.3%. The August contracts expired at the end of the session.Domestic crude inventories are tight at 435.6 million barrels for the week ended July 23 -- about 7% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.Expectations that the oil market would see "permanent demand destruction from the COVID-19 shut down was really overplayed," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group. "What we saw is the that the lack of investment in low energy prices spurred demand as the economy reopened." Also on Nymex, September natural gas settled at $3.91 per million British thermal units, down 3.6%, paring its monthly rise to 7.2%.
Oil Ekes Out 4th Monthly Gain After U.S. Inventory Beat — Oil headed toward its best week in five on Friday after outsized U.S. draws in everything, from crude to gasoline and diesel, helped bulls put the market back on a positive track.New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude and London’s Brent also posted modest gains for July, extending oil’s positive run to a fourth straight month.WTI settled up 33 cents, or 0.5%, at $73.95 per barrel on Friday. The benchmark for U.S. oil was up 2.1% for the Monday-Friday stretch, marking its best week in five. It also showed a gain of 0.7% for July.Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled up 31 cents, or 0.4%, at $75.41 on the day. For the week, Brent rose 1.8%. For July, Brent showed a 1.1% gain. That was its best in six weeks.After a soft start to the week, oil’s upside was restored by data from the Energy Information Administration showing a crude inventory drop of 4.089 million barrels during the week to July 23, compared with analysts' expectations for a draw of 2.928 million barrels.The big drawdowns in crude came as refiners focused on pushing out as much gasoline as they could this summer to meet projected demand for the peak U.S. driving season. According to the EIA, refiners operated at 91.1 percent of capacity for the week to July 23, not far from highs seen during the pre-pandemic summer of 2019. Gasoline stockpiles on their own fell by 2.25 million barrels for the week to July 23, against a forecast 1.24 million. The outlier for the week, however, was diesel-heavy distillates, which drew down by 3.1 million barrels, more than quadruple the forecast decline of 700,000. The outsized draw shows that demand for trucking and other commercial vehicle fuel was as strong as the consumption of gasoline.
Biden, Iraqi prime minister to announce end of US combat mission in Iraq --President Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi will announce Monday that the U.S. military’s combat mission in Iraq will formally conclude by the end of the year. The announcement will come in a joint communique issued after the two leaders meet in the White House on Monday afternoon, a senior administration official told reporters in a background call about the meeting. “We’re talking about shifting to a new phase in the campaign in which we very much complete the combat mission against ISIS and shift to an advisory and training mission by the end of the year,” the official said. “As this evolution continues, and as we formally end the combat mission and make clear that there are no American forces with a combat role in the country, Iraq has requested, and we very much agree, that they need continued training, support with logistics, intelligence, advisory capacity building — all of which will continue,” the official added. But while the announcement will mark a symbolic end to the combat mission, U.S. military operations in Iraq are expected to remain largely unchanged, as U.S. troops there have been in a mostly training and advisory role for years. Additionally, the distinction between “combat” and “noncombat” troops is not clear.
Taliban Seeks International 'Legitimacy' In Meeting With Top China Officials -- Amid the Islamist militant group's unleashing chaos and a mounting civilian death toll on the Afghan landscape, and now in possession of at least half of the country's districts, Talban leaders have traveled to China where "warming ties" were on display Wednesday in a meeting with top Beijing officials.China’s foreign minister Wang Yi hosted the visit of a Taliban delegation of nine Taliban leaders, including the group's co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. Yi told reporters that China expects to "play an important role in the process of peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan."Clearly the Taliban are now seeking international "legitimacy" as they are poised to eventually retake the entire country via military force, particularly the Afghan capital of Kabul, which US intelligence admitted recently could be just six months away.Al Jazeera aptly commented on the question of legitimacy in the following: Wednesday’s meeting in the Chinese city of Tianjin, which Taliban spokesman Mohammed Naeem said was at the invitation from Chinese authorities, was widely seen as a gift from Beijing towards that legitimacy. The Taliban were greeted with smiles and nods to the camera in Tianjin, the major port city in northeast China where a US delegation led by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with Chinese counterparts on Sunday into Monday for what was by all accounts a much icier reception.
Kuwaiti government bans unvaccinated citizens from traveling outside country - The Kuwaiti government announced on Tuesday that only vaccinated citizens will be permitted to travel outside the country beginning on Aug. 1. Children who are younger than 16 years old, individuals with a certificate from the health ministry saying they cannot be inoculated and pregnant women who have a certificate from authorities that proves they are carrying a child are the only groups of people exempt from the new regulations, Reuters reported. The civil aviation authority also announced on Tuesday that all individuals who arrive in Kuwait must present a negative COVID-19 PCR test and be symptom free before boarding flights, Reuters reported. If the arrivals do not provide a negative COVID-19 PCR test in Kuwait, they will reportedly have to complete a seven-day home quarantine. The new restrictions come one day after the Kuwaiti government scaled back some COVID-19 restrictions and restarted all activities except for gatherings such as conferences, weddings and social events, according to the wire service. Infections, however, are beginning to creep up throughout the world, driven largely by the highly infectious delta variant. In Kuwait, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), new daily cases steadily increased last month before decreasing in June. Kuwait has seen more than 393,000 COVID-19 cases since the pandemic began, according to the WHO. More than 2,200 people in the country have died.
New Hong Kong Legislation Would Punish Companies Complying With US Sanctions -China's latest US sanctions countermeasures focusing on Hong Kong and Macau said to be under preparation look to be the furthest reaching in terms of outright barring any foreign entity that complies with Washington. The new laws for Hong Kong and Macau would proactively prevent foreign entities and individuals from complying with US-led sanctions by barring them, according to a new Wall Street Journal report Wednesday. It follows the mainland's "antiforeign sanctions law" unveiled in June, which precisely bars foreign companies that seek to conform with European and US anti-China sanctions, which Beijing at the time framed as 'safeguarding' Chinese businesses and entities. According to details presented in the WSJ report:China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported on Tuesday that the country’s legislature was scheduled to add provisions to the mini-constitutions of Hong Kong and Macau during a four-day session beginning Aug. 17, though it didn’t specify what changes would be made.The introduction of the law in the two Chinese territories, especially in the financial hub of Hong Kong, could leave many companies and their employees caught in the middle as China and the U.S. clash over the future of the former British colony. It effectively enables the Chinese and HK governments to sanction all who comply with US/EU sanctions by drawing a bright red line, forcing entities to choose whether to comply to Washington's side or Beijing's side. It will create an impossible "damned if you do, damned if you don't" dilemma for many...
Why the U.S. and Europe trail China in central bank currency race -Proponents of central bank digital currencies are under pressure to demonstrate the economic benefits of their projects before they can counter China's digital yuan.Both the European Union and U.S. face pressure to digitize their currency because of China's relatively faster progress on a digital yuan, which is already being tested with retail chains and could threaten the influence of the U.S. dollar and the euro. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are conducting lengthy projects just to determine the possible structure of a CBDC before final legislative votes, a process that will likely add years to overall development.There's also a concern that the digital yuan could be a means of surveillance — this worry prompted U.S. Sens. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn.; Roger Wicker, R-Miss. and Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., to ask the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee to bar American athletes from using the digital yuan during the summer games. A more bipartisan group of senators in Junepushed for privacy as part of a U.S. digital dollar, again contending that China's using its digital currency for spying.
Brazil’s schools set to reopen amid record COVID-19 child deaths - Last week, a news report by UOL revealed that COVID-19 became the number one cause of death among 10-to-19-year-olds in Brazil. Just in the first six months of 2021, 1,581 young people in this age group died from COVID-19. In contrast 1,406 died from cancer in the entire year of 2019. The death toll of younger children is also alarming, with Health Ministry data showing that 1,187 children younger than 10 died from COVID-19 in 2020. However, data from Vital Strategies, which takes into account the surge in deaths from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), points to 3,129 lives lost. Epidemiologist and professor at the Sergipe Federal University Paulo Martins-Filho said that “this increase in the number of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19, observed particularly since February and March, is a reflex of the high community transmission rate and the circulation of variants of concern in the national territory.” He added that “For children, the pandemic was also associated with profound educational, social and psychological changes, food insecurity … which can result in death in poorer regions.” He concluded that “the disease emerged as a new cause of death among children in poor communities, as observed in the North and Northeast regions in Brazil.” In an interview with CNN Brasil, Ana Escobar, a pediatrician from the University of São Paulo said that the Gamma variant, which originated and became the dominant variant in Brazil in the first months of the year, was a direct cause for the deadly disease spreading among young people. She explained that it is able to more easily enter cells in the body, while warning of the potential of a new surge in deaths that won’t spare children and teenagers: “the Delta variant, which is already in the country, is even better at it.” In Brazil, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to cause more than a thousand deaths every single day, while the moving average is again on the rise, registering 45,094 daily cases. Sunday, vaccinations with first shots were suspended in eight state capitals, pending the delivery of new vaccine batches by the federal government. Meanwhile, state governors, including those of the Workers Party (PT) and Maoist Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB), are signaling their support for the profit interests of the ruling class by touting the vaccination of small percentages of the population while reopening schools and the entire economy. Maranhão Governor Flávio Dino of the PCdoB announced last week the beginning of in-person classes on August 2, along with the full reopening of theaters, churches, commerce and mass events. He justified his measures stating that “We have the mask mandate and social distancing. This is as critical as the vaccine. From this premise ... we are flexibilizing economic activities.” Meanwhile, Governor Rui Costa of the PT followed the same line, while threatening Bahia’s state teachers that they will have their wages cut if they refuse to enter schools.
Europe recovers from double-dip recession but lags the United States -Europe’s economy exited a painful double-dip recession in the second quarter, rebounding faster than expected from the ravages of the pandemic as consumers spent pent-up savings and restaurants, factories and other businesses sprang to life after pandemic control restrictions eased.Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, grew 2 percent in the second quarter of the year in the eurozone, up nearly 14 percent from a year ago and reversing a 0.3 percent contraction in the first three months of the year, Eurostat, Europe’s statistics agency, reported on Friday.But the eurozone’s recovery, while striking for its speed, is far from complete: It continues to lag the United States, which reported data Thursday showing it had returned to its prepandemic level of output in the second quarter. Europe is not expected to hit that marker before the end of the year.The European Union recently increased its forecast for growth this year to 4.8 percent, but the United States economy is expected to grow by 6.9 percent in 2021, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Nonetheless, Europe’s recovery has gained speed as service and manufacturing sentiment and activity jumped among the 19 nations that share the euro currency, after governments worked to prevent new lockdowns in spring. …
Fall in UK daily COVID cases used to reinforce government propaganda that everyone can “live with the virus” - UK Health Minister Sajid Javid was forced to delete and then issue an apology for a tweet he had posted Saturday declaring that the public must not “cower” from COVID-19, but instead learn to “live with” the virus. Javid tweeted the comments after stating that he had contracted COVID and made a “full recovery” from it.At least 152,000 people in the UK made no recovery from COVID and lost their lives to the Conservative government’s herd immunity policy. Javid now denounces as “cowards” those seeking to protect themselves and others from the ravages of the virus, amid his government’s “Freedom Day” elimination of mandatory containment measures.Javid’s comments met with a wave of protest from those who have lost loved ones. But his original tweet was repeating, more crudely, statements he has made consistently from the moment he was appointed health secretary last month. Even as he forecast that within months Britain’s population could be hit by more than 100,000 infections a day, Javid tweeted July 4, eight days after taking office, “We are going to have to learn to live with Covid and find ways to cope with it—just as we already do with flu”.This too was an unvarnished declaration of the government’s “herd immunity” policy. Last Friday, Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in the behavioural science subgroup of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said, “What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible, while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences.”“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach.”
UK’s economic recovery from Covid stalled in June amid ‘pingdemic’ - Britain’s recovery from the pandemic slowed last month as shortages of goods supplied to factories, building sites and shops began to take their toll on growth and increasing numbers of workers across the country were forced to isolate after being pinged by the NHS app.According to the Guardian’s monthly snapshot of economic developments, there was a slowdown in economic growth in June, which could continue if the Delta variant continues to hamper business activity.Construction companies reported a second month of declining activity as the combined impact of EU staff returning home following Brexit and a shortage of materials hit their ability to maintain previously high levels.Overall retail footfall in mid-July was three-quarters of the level recorded in the equivalent week of 2019, prior to the pandemic, reflecting continued caution among shoppers as Covid infection rates remained high. Financial markets took a dive last week in response to concerns that governments were struggling to suppress the Delta variant and fears the highly contagious strain of the coronavirus would persist into the autumn.A more recent improvement in the infection rate following a halving of reported cases in the UK helped markets recover some losses this week. But analysts said the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC), which meets next week to set interest rates, was likely to maintain its base rate at the historic low of 0.1% over fears that the virus could flare up again.Central bank policymakers are divided about the likely path of the recovery, with deputy governor Sir Dave Ramsden and external member Michael Saunders, a former City economist, saying it was time to begin withdrawing the £150bn stimulus injected into the economy this year as part of an £875bn quantitative easing programme.However, a majority of the nine-strong committee have argued in separate speeches for the plan to remain in place, leaving little doubt that the central bank’s policy of low interest rates and QE will persist following next week’s meeting.
UK teachers’ pay freeze meets no opposition from unions - The Conservative government has announced a pay freeze for teachers in England along with that proposed for all public sector workers, excluding the paltry 3 percent offered to some National Health Service (NHS) staff. The announcement has angered many teachers who will be confronted with a real term loss of income following inflation of over 3 percent for this year alone. The government has utilised the massive bailout of the financial elite and major corporations during the pandemic as a justification to impose the real term cuts on wages and conditions, insisting on the need for “restraint”. A government spokesman said, “The pause to most public sector workforce pay rises ensures we can get the public finances back onto a sustainable path after unprecedented government spending on the response to Covid-19.” This is meeting no opposition from the Labour Party or the education unions. While many educators have labelled the announcement as a “slap in the face”, no action is being called by unions that have subordinated all opposition to the terrible impact of the pandemic on the safety and well-being of staff to the need to protect profits. They played the key role in the repeated reopening of unsafe schools, resulting in an explosion of Covid infections in the wider community. According to the Times Educational Supplement (TES), next year’s pay freeze will result in a real-terms pay cut for experienced teachers of around 8 percent, taking teacher pay back to levels of 15 years ago. The calculation by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), shows the drop in real-term pay for less experienced teachers is also about 4-5 percent lower than in 2007, just before the global financial crisis. Luke Sibieta, IFS research fellow, said, “It is astounding that teacher pay levels remain so far below what they were before the financial crisis in 2007.” The crash precipitated a decade of slash and burn of working conditions and social devastation for the working class internationally through the programme of austerity. The financial impact of the pandemic by the bourgeoisie and its defenders in the corporatist trade unions is meeting the same response. The pay freeze will further hit teacher recruitment, which has been in crisis for well over a decade. The National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) issued a statement noting that its own survey research “has found that nearly half of school leaders are considering leaving the profession sooner than originally planned.”
NHS Queen Elizabeth Hospital held up by props as national maintenance bill reaches £9 billion - The Queen Elizabeth Hospital (QEH) in King’s Lynn in the East of England is appalling proof of the state of the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK. It is having to bid for government funding to survive.The hospital opened in 1980 and was cheaply built as a “best-buy hospital” from prefabricated sections, only meant to last 30 years. Over the decades it has become a major hub for around 250,000 people in the communities it services. The hospital currently provides 515 beds for an area of approximately 1,500 km2 encompassing the West Norfolk area, South Lincolnshire and North East Cambridgeshire.It has now been standing for over 40 years and is in dire need of replacing. An anonymous trust employee said that the situation at the QEH is like a “Grenfell waiting to happen”.The horrific state of the building is such that there are temporary supports (acrow props) holding up the roof in wards. There are now a staggering 194 props holding up the hospital, after a further 60 had to be installed April. Some wards have had to be closed due to structural safety concerns. The roof was originally built with reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete (RAAC) planks, which only have a lifespan of 30 years, and is now showing cracks. The planks cannot bear the weight of the roof. The hospitals risk register in March 2020 stated that “there is a direct risk to life and safety of patients, visitors and staff due to the potential catastrophic failure of the roof structure due to structural deficiencies.”
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