Fed Officials Prepare for November Reduction in Bond Buying – WSJ - Federal Reserve officials will seek to forge agreement at their coming meeting to begin scaling back their easy money policies in November.Many of them have said in recent interviews and public statements that they could begin reducing, or tapering, their $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities this year. While they are unlikely to do so at their meeting on Sept. 21-22, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could use that gathering to signal they are likely to start the process at their following session, on Nov. 2-3.Under the plans taking shape, officials could reduce those purchases at a pace that allows them to conclude asset buying by the middle of next year.Mr. Powell said in a recent speech that at their July meeting, he believed that “if the economy evolved broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year.” New York Fed President John Williams, a top ally of Mr. Powell’s, madea nearly identical statement during a virtual appearance on Wednesday.The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond buying until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.“I think it’s clear that we have made substantial further progress on achieving our inflation goal,” Mr. Williams said. “There has also been very good progress toward maximum employment.”The Delta variant of the coronavirus has resulted in a surge in new infections, but many Fed officials have said it isn’t posing the same headwind to consumer spending as did earlier virus waves last year.Mr. Williams told reporters Wednesday that while the pandemic was likely a factor in a hiring slowdown last month, he said the overall path of employment gains this year has been sturdy. He said he is more focused on overall hiring this year than on monthly fluctuations, a sign that the August job figures wouldn’t alter plans to taper in November. “Some months come in stronger, some not so strong—it’s really about the accumulation,” he said.The Fed cut its short-term benchmark interest rate to near zero in March 2020 and has been buying $80 billion in Treasurys and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month since June 2020 to provide additional stimulus to the economy.Fed officials have indicated they don’t want to be in a position where they are still increasing their $8.4 trillion asset portfolio when an interest-rate increase might be needed to keep inflation in check. Officials still have to iron out the exact pace of any taper. Some have advocated reducing their purchases of Treasurys and mortgage bonds in regular, proportional intervals so that the Fed could conclude asset buying by the middle of 2022. That would be somewhat sooner than anticipated by New York banks that responded to a Fed survey in mid-July. The Fed wound down its previous bond-buying program very gradually, reducing its purchases over the course of 10 months. But when it announced the plan in December 2013, the economy was weaker than now, with higher unemployment and low inflation.
Liberals are unhappy with Fed's Powell, but that may not faze White House — Progressive lawmakers are ramping up opposition to a second term for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell because of bank deregulatory measures taken under his leadership. But many observers question whether those protests will be enough to stop his reappointment. During the Trump administration, Powell and other Federal Reserve Board governors backed rules that provided midsize banks with substantial relief from the Dodd-Frank Act and eased other capital requirements, among other things. They advanced those measures often over the dissents of Lael Brainard, the board's lone Democrat. Liberals in Congress such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., say such steps weakening the post-financial crisis regulatory regime should be a concern as the Biden administration considers re-nominating Powell when his term ends in February.
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic growth downshifted slightly to a moderate pace" --Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York based on information collected on or before August 30, 2021." (excerpt) Economic growth downshifted slightly to a moderate pace in early July through August. The stronger sectors of the economy of late included manufacturing, transportation, nonfinancial services, and residential real estate. The deceleration in economic activity was largely attributable to a pullback in dining out, travel, and tourism in most Districts, reflecting safety concerns due to the rise of the Delta variant, and, in a few cases, international travel restrictions. The other sectors of the economy where growth slowed or activity declined were those constrained by supply disruptions and labor shortages, as opposed to softening demand. In particular, weakness in auto sales was widely ascribed to low inventories amidst the ongoing microchip shortage, and restrained home sales activity was attributed to low supply. Growth in non-auto retail sales slowed a bit in some Districts, rising at a modest pace, on balance, across the nation. Residential construction was up slightly, on balance, and nonresidential construction picked up modestly. Trends in loan volumes varied widely across Districts, ranging from down modestly to up strongly. Reports on the agriculture and energy sectors were mixed across Districts but, on balance, positive. Looking ahead, businesses in most Districts remained optimistic about near-term prospects, though there continued to be widespread concern about ongoing supply disruptions and resource shortages. … All Districts continued to report rising employment overall, though the characterization of the pace of job creation ranged from slight to strong. Demand for workers continued to strengthen, but all Districts noted extensive labor shortages that were constraining employment and, in many cases, impeding business activity. Contributing to these shortages were increased turnover, early retirements (especially in health care), childcare needs, challenges in negotiating job offers, and enhanced unemployment benefits. Some Districts noted that return-to-work schedules were pushed back due to the increase in the Delta variant. With persistent and extensive labor shortages, a number of Districts reported an acceleration in wages, and most characterized wage growth as strong—including all of the midwestern and western regions. Several Districts noted particularly brisk wage gains among lower-wage workers. Employers were reported to be using more frequent raises, bonuses, training, and flexible work arrangements to attract and retain workers.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Early September - Menzie Chinn --With the August employment situation release, we have the following picture of the macroeconomy. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from June release (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (9/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.Clearly, the employment numbers for nonfarm payroll have slowed their ascent, continuing a trend in established in consumption and personal income ex-current transfers in July’s numbers. The increase of 235K was 515K below the Bloomberg consensus of 750K. Signifying the impact of the delta variant’s spread, retail dropped 29K, while hospitality and leisure employment was flat, breaking the recovery in that sector. Reuters reports:The number of number of people saying they were unable to work because of the pandemic increased 497,000 in August, the first rise since December. Perhaps not an enormous impact, but a noticeable one as suggested earlier by high frequency indicators (remember the release pertains to employment situation a little before the middle of August).
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.This data is as of September 6th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 17.8% from the same day in 2019 (82.2% of 2019). (Dashed line) Focus on the dashed line (percent of 2019). Note that the dashed line hit a pandemic high over the Labor Day weekend - probably due to leisure travel. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through September 5, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining was generally picking up, but has moved down recently - and now picked up again for the Holiday weekend. The 7-day average for the US is up 1% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 2nd. Movie ticket sales were at $82 million last week, down about 44% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Occupancy is above the horrible 2009 levels, but, according to STR, occupancy is declining due to both seasonal factors and "concerns around the pandemic". With solid leisure travel, the Summer months had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - especially with the sharp increase in COVID pandemic cases and hospitalizations. This data is through August 28th. The occupancy rate is down 8.4% compared to the same week in 2019. Note: Occupancy was up year-over-year, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of August 27th, gasoline supplied was up 1.1% compared to the same week in 2019. This was the fifth week so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019..
Closely Watched Atlanta Fed’s GDP Forecast Cuts U.S. Growth by 41 Percent --Pam Martens -The highly respected and closely watched Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for the third quarter has been slashed by 41 percent since August 2 – from 6.3 percent GDP growth to a tepid 3.7 percent projected GDP growth on September 2. The next update to its forecast will occur tomorrow after the Producer Price Index (PPI) is released at 10 a.m. (The GDPNow update typically occurs within a few hours of a new data release.)The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is the seasonally adjusted annual rate. It comes with the following caveat: There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow – the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.”Despite this dramatic deceleration in growth prospects for the U.S. economy in the current quarter, the following headline ran at Bloomberg News yesterday: “Fed Says Growth Downshifted Slightly July-Aug, Cites Delta.”Downshifted slightly? Seriously? Take a close look at the above chart.The Bloomberg News report was based on the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book – which looks at economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. One sentence stands out in the newly released Beige Book:“Economic growth downshifted slightly to a moderate pace in early July through August.”That entire sentence is problematic. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for the third quarter took a dramatic turn for the worse from mid-August to the end of August, dropping from 6.2 percent on August 17 to 5.1 percent on August 27. That’s a deceleration of 18 percent in 10 days.The Federal Reserve, where Jerome Powell would like to keep his job as Chair, is now between a rock and a hard place. If it presents the hard facts on the ground it risks further dampening the mood of the consumer – who represents two-thirds of GDP growth in the U.S.That mood is already pretty gloomy. The survey of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board on August 31 dropped from a reading of 125.1 in July to 113.8 in August. And the Conference Board’s report was downright cheery compared to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for August. It found the following: “There was no lessening in late August in the extent of the collapse in consumer sentiment recorded in the first half of the month. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 13.4% from July, recording the least favorable economic prospects in more than a decade. The Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other monthly surveys since 1978. The losses were especially large in the Expectations Index, and widespread across all demographic groups, regions, and the outlook for the economy.
Q3 GDP Forecasts: Downgraded to Around 4% - GDP forecasts have been downgraded sharply for Q3 due to COVID. The surge in COVID cases has impacted some consumer spending, caused further supply chain disruptions, and possibly some downgrades due to policy (expiration of unemployment benefits during a COVID wave). Here is a table of some downgrades over the last 40 days. From BofA Merrill Lynch: We continue to track 4.5% qoq saar for 3Q GDP. [Sept 10 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: We now expect GDP growth of 3.5% in Q3. [Sept 9 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.7 percent on September 10 [Sept 10 estimate]
COVID and the Economy - I'm tracking new cases, hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID, mostly to assess the impact on the economy. Just over a month ago, many Americans, and economic analysts, assumed COVID was mostly behind us. Unfortunately they were wrong, and COVID has impacted the economic outlook once again. For example, on July 30th, Goldman Sachs wrote: "we are launching our Q3 GDP tracking estimate at +9.0% (qoq ar)" Then in mid-August, they downgraded their forecast: "We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production."And this week, on September 6th, they downgraded their forecast again: “We now expect GDP growth of 3.5% in Q3." That is about one third of the real growth they expected just 5 weeks ago!Other analysts have made similar downgrades for Q3. There are several reasons for the change: the surge in COVID cases has impacted some consumer spending, supply chain disruptions are ongoing (and COVID is impacting the supply chain recovery), and possibly some downgrades due to policy (expiration of unemployment benefits during a COVID wave). Right now it is looking like new cases are peaking, but far above the 12,000 per day level we saw in June. And it looks like we might see another Winter wave for several reasons:
- 1) There is a huge reservoir of virus (about 150,000 new cases have been reported per day).
- 2) Schools are reopening, and kids spread the virus easily.
- 3) Many Americans have moved past taking even the easiest mitigation efforts (like wearing masks indoors).
- 4) Only 53.4% of Americans are vaccinated, and the percent is increasing very slowly.
- 5) Thanksgiving is only 77 days from now (followed by Christmas and New Years). Families will want to gather in person this year.
A severe winter COVID wave could be a significant economic drag in Q4, and Q1 2022. And the most vulnerable are losing their extended unemployment benefits, and could be facing eviction. Hopefully there won't be another wave.
Yellen: US on track to default on national debt in October -Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday warned congressional leaders that the U.S. is on track to default on the national debt in October if the White House and Congress are unable to raise the debt limit. In a Wednesday letter, Yellen said that the Treasury Department would likely run out of cash and exhaust “extraordinary” measures to keep the federal government within its legal borrowing limit at some point next month. "Once all available measures and cash on hand are fully exhausted, the United States of America would be unable to meet its obligations for the first time in our history," Yellen said. “Given this uncertainty, the Treasury Department is not able to provide a specific estimate of how long the extraordinary measures will last. However, based on our best and most recent information, the most likely outcome is that cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted during the month of October,” she continued. Yellen wrote the letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). The Treasury Department has taken so-called extraordinary measures to prevent the U.S. from defaulting on the national debt since the federal debt limit was reimposed on Aug. 1. If the Treasury Department runs out of ways to stave off a default without borrowing more money, the inability of the U.S. to pay its debts could send debilitating shockwaves through the financial system. Yellen urged lawmakers for months to raise the debt limit before it was reimposed in August, warning that a delay could "cause irreparable damage to the U.S. economy and global financial markets." She has since pleaded with Congress to give Treasury the ability to pay debts already approved by previous presidents and congressional majorities. "Waiting until the last minute to suspend or increase the debt limit can cause serious harm to business and consumer confidence, raise short-term borrowing costs for taxpayers, and negatively impact the credit rating of the United States," Yellen wrote. "At a time when American families, communities, and businesses are still suffering from the effects of the ongoing global pandemic, it would be particularly irresponsible to put the full faith and credit of the United States at risk." Even so, Democrats and Republicans are locked in a stalemate over who bears responsibility for protecting the full faith and credit of the U.S. The White House and Democratic leaders are planning to tie a debt limit increase to another must-pass government funding bill, daring Republicans to trigger both a government shutdown and a default by opposing the measure. “We fully expect Congress to act promptly to suspend the debt limit and protect the full faith and credit of the United States and we expect them to do that in a bipartisan way just as they did three times during the prior administration," said a White House official on Tuesday. But Republicans have refused to raise the debt ceiling unless spending cuts and debt reduction programs are attached. Fed Stimulus Plan Cuts Your House Payment
How Will The Debt Limit Drama Play Out: Here Are The Two Scenarios - Addressing a topic that could soon become a big concern for the bond market - the October dead limit deadline - Curvature's repo expert Scott Skyrm said this morning that, "for the past several years, Congress always reached a compromise before the possibility of a "technical default" creeped into the markets. This year, as we get closer to the "drop dead date" (which hasn't yet been determined) the markets will start pricing in distortions." To this we can add that as we noted yesterday, distortions in the bond market are already clearly emerging, with the spread between October and November - this is where the market estimates the "drop dead date" will take place - T-Bills rising fast: As a reminder, yesterday Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to congressional leaders this morning indicating that the the Treasury will exhaust its cash and extraordinary measures "during the month of October". This slightly sooner than the "October or November" timing that the Congressional Budget Office had estimated in a report in late July. So how will the upcoming debt limit drama play out? According to Goldman, there are several possible scenarios from here: The most likely scenario is that Democratic leaders will attach a debt limit suspension to upcoming spending legislation to keep the federal government open past the end of the fiscal year (a "continuing resolution") and to provide emergency disaster relief funding related to the fires in the Western US and storm damage in the East and South. As 46 Senate Republicans have indicated they will block a debt limit increase, there is a good chance this strategy will not succeed. That said, passage of short-term debt limit might be possible as several Republican senators represent states affected by recent disasters. One option Republicans might consider would be to vote against the bill but decline to filibuster it, allowing it to pass with only 51 votes in the Senate. This would likely require unanimous Democratic support in that chamber, which is possible but not certain.If Senate Republicans block the spending bill later this month, Democratic leaders would then need to decide whether to force the issue and risk a partial federal government shutdown, or to remove the debt limit suspension from the spending bill. If lawmakers end in a stalemate, a government shutdown might follow, though Goldman does not see this as the base case.If they are unable to raise the debt limit as part of a spending bill, they might consider using the reconciliation process to pass it with only 51 votes. However, this faces two challenges:
- First, it is unclear whether all Senate Democrats would vote for a revised budget resolution that increases the debt limit by several trillion dollars. if Democrats use the reconciliation process, Senate rules would probably allow them only to raise the debt limit by a specific dollar figure, which would lead to more politically problematic headlines, rather than suspend it for a period of time, which has become the norm over the last decade as it does not lead to a specific dollar amount at the time of passage.
- Second, the current reconciliation process to pass as much as $3.5 trillion in new spending is already underway, with House committees already in the process of considering and passing their segments of the bill in committee. Revising the budget resolution, which governs that process, could interfere with consideration of that legislation, and would likely take at least a couple of weeks, if not longer. If Democrats wait until Sep. 30 to test support for a debt limit increase as part of the spending bill, they might not have sufficient time to go through all of the procedures necessary to revise the resolution before the debt limit deadline.
Democrats Move to Expand Social Safety Net --The $3.5 trillion social policy bill that lawmakers begin drafting this week would touch virtually every American, at every point in life, from conception to old age. — When congressional committees meet this week to begin formally drafting Democrats’ ambitious social policy plan, they will be undertaking the most significant expansion of the nation’s safety net since the war on poverty in the 1960s, devising legislation that would touch virtually every American’s life, from conception to aged infirmity.Passage of the bill, which could spend as much as $3.5 trillion over the next decade, is anything but certain. President Biden, who has staked much of his domestic legacy on the measure’s enactment, will need the vote of every single Democrat in the Senate, and virtually every one in the House, to secure it. And with two Democratic senators, Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, saying they would not accept such a costly plan, it will challenge Democratic unity like nothing has since the Affordable Care Act.That is largely because the proposed legislation would be so transformative — a cradle-to-grave reweaving of a social safety net frayed by decades of expanding income inequality, stagnating wealth and depleted governmental resources, capped by the worst public health crisis in a century.The pandemic loosened the reins on federal spending, prompting members of both parties to support showering the economy with aid. It also uncorked decades-old policy desires — like expanding Medicare coverage or paid family and medical leave — that Democrats contend have proved to be necessities as the country has lived through the coronavirus crisis. “Polls have shown for a very long time that these issues to support American families were important, and were popular, but all of a sudden they became not a ‘nice to have’ but a ‘must have,’” said Heather Boushey, a member of Mr. Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers who has been developing such policies for decades.Democrats say they will finance their spending with proposed tax increases on corporations — which has already incited a multifaceted, big-budget effort by business groups working to kill the idea — and by possibly taxing wealth in ways that the United States has never tried before. …
Progressives’ Tax-the-Rich Dreams Fade as Democrats Struggle for Votes – WSJ --—Progressive Democrats, who had hoped unified party control of the government could spur transformative tax increases on multinational companies and wealthy individuals, look like they will have to settle for a more modest outcome. Tax-code changes moving through Congress this month would still likely raise more than $1 trillion over a decade and reverse many Trump-era changes to help fund an expanded social safety net. Key pieces remain unresolved, and progressive activists hope Democrats can be swayed by last-minute pressure campaigns and the party’s desire to unite behind President Biden. “The labor movement does not believe that there is a Democrat in either house prepared to block the president’s investment agenda for the benefit of giant corporations and billionaires,” said Damon Silvers, director of policy at the AFL-CIO. “But if it turned out that there was such a person, our members would certainly want to talk to them.” Democrats are weighing how far to go, particularly on taxing multinational corporations and capital gains. They had planned to use higher taxes, tax enforcement and other policy changes to pay for their $3.5 trillion, 10-year package. The bill is expected to create a paid-leave program, extend the expanded child tax credit, offer renewable-energy tax breaks and may create a Medicare dental benefit. Each $1 trillion in tax increases over a decade is roughly a 2% increase in federal revenue. Progressives are trying to keep tougher tax proposals alive. Lawmakers including Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D., R.I.) pressed last week for strong international tax rules. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D., Ore.) floated exemptions for capital-gains changes that would spare many multimillionaires but keep billionaires within Democrats’ sights. “Now we need Congress to finish the job, to come through for the American people,” Mr. Biden said in remarks Friday touting his proposed taxes on businesses and wealthy Americans. But it is far from certain what can pass, and lawmakers have acknowledged they may need to pare their ambitions or borrow more. The result could be a far cry from the talk of wealth taxes and repealing the 2017 GOP tax law that dominated the 2020 presidential primary campaign and weren’t part of Mr. Biden’s plans. Democrats’ slim congressional margins mean they need almost every lawmaker on board. Centrists balk at the current price tag and the taxes proposed to help pay for it, frustrating progressives. Republicans are united against higher taxes. There is a strong intraparty consensus to reverse some of the 2017 cuts. The corporate tax rate is likely to jump to 25% from 21%, fitting the preferences of Sens. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) and Mark Warner (D., Va.). That is below the 28% Mr. Biden proposed and the 35% that existed before 2017. Democrats also plan to return to the top individual tax rate to 39.6% from 37%. The Biden plan would start that top bracket at $452,700 in taxable income for individuals and $509,300 for married couples. The tax provision generating the mostDemocratic angst is capital gains. To progressives, it is their clearest chance to push back against wealth inequality they have spent years decrying. Under current law, people who die with unrealized gains don’t pay capital-gains taxes. Their heirs do, but only on gains after the prior owner’s death and only when they sell. Democrats have spent years building the case against these rules as an unfair benefit for the richest Americans, and there is broad consensus among Democrats—but not unanimity—for change.
Democrats plow 'full speed ahead' on sweeping Biden budget, despite tensions — The top two Democrats said they’re pushing forward with President Joe Biden’s sweeping safety net expansion, as House committees circulate legislative text with hearings scheduled Thursday to start advancing major sections of the bill.“We're moving full speed ahead,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters on a call Wednesday.The New York Democrat effectively cast aside calls by Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., for a “strategic pause” in the process of crafting the bill, as he voiced concerns about inflation and debt in a recent op-ed for the Wall Street Journal. Schumer is navigating demands by Manchin, as well as Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., to reduce the price tag that Democrats set at a maximum of $3.5 trillion in the budget resolution. “There are some in my caucus who believe $3.5 trillion is too much; there are some in my caucus who believe it's too little,” Schumer said. “We're going to work very hard to have unity, because without unity, we're not going to get anything.” Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday the House is moving forward at the $3.5 trillion level. But she left open the possibility of a lower final price tag before the bill becomes law, while promising that “we will get the job done” with “a great bill” that honors Biden’s vision. “We will have our negotiations,” Pelosi, D-Calif., said, when asked by NBC News if the House could pass a bill at a lower amount. “I don’t know what the number will be. We are marking at 3.5 [trillion]. ... We will pay for more than half, maybe all of the legislation.” The remarks by Schumer and Pelosi point to a complicated balancing act, facing a broad range of opinions from centrist lawmakers skeptical of the price tag to progressives who believe $3.5 trillion should be the minimum. Democratic leaders are also juggling an aggressive timeline by seeking to ready the bill by Sept. 27 — the self-imposed House deadline to vote on the separate infrastructure bill — to ensure progressives will support the latter. They are betting Manchin can ultimately be won over on the substance of the package. Lawmakers and committees are keeping options open in case the price tag needs to be cut: For instance, they’ve privately discussed setting some provisions to expire sooner. Manchin has been somewhat vague in his demands. He has not specified what price tag he would support or what provisions of the emerging bill he wants to cut. His office did not have a comment when asked those questions Wednesday. In June, he said on ABC's "This Week" thathe wants to “make sure we pay for” the bill. A source close to Manchin said he is a big proponent of targeting benefits on the basis of income and capping them so the money reaches people who need it the most — principles he believes are critical for Democrats' proposals on community college subsidies and on home-based care provisions for the disabled and elderly. Manchin also has issues with the climate change proposals in the legislation, the source said.
House Panels Start Writing $3.5 Trillion Social Policy and Climate Bill - Five House committees on Thursday began formally drafting their pieces of Democrats’ far-reaching social policy and climate change bill that would spend as much as $3.5 trillion over the next decade — and raise as much in taxes and other revenue boosters — to reweave the social safety net and move the country away from fossil fuels. The products of the drafting sessions, which could take several arduous days, are to be folded into a final bill later this fall that could be one of the most significant measures to reach the House floor in decades. “This is our moment to lay a new foundation of opportunity for the American people,” said Representative Richard Neal of Massachusetts, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, in opening remarks on Thursday. “This is a historic moment to make investments that reflect what we’ve learned during the pandemic so that the American people will be healthier and our economy will be more inclusive and resilient for generations to come.” Democrats plan to push through the legislation using a process known as reconciliation, which shields fiscal measures from filibusters and allows them to pass with a simple majority if they adhere to strict rules. The maneuver leaves the party little room for defections given its slim margins of control in Congress. Republicans are unified in opposition to the emerging bill, and lobbyists for business and the affluent are also arrayed against it. They need only to peel away three or four House Democrats — or a single Senate Democrat — to bring the effort down. “The last thing Americans need right now is trillions more in government spending that drives up prices, kills jobs and wastes our hard-earned tax dollars,” said Representative Kevin Brady, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, which began drafting its hefty portion of the bill on Thursday. The panel will start with the spending side this week before moving next week to the more difficult task of tax increases to pay for it. Among the items on its voluminous agenda: providing up to 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave (approved 24 to 19); expanding tax credits to pay for child care and elder care; raising the wages of child care workers; requiring employers to automatically enroll employees in individual retirement accounts or 401(k) plans; and expanding Medicare coverage to include dental, vision and hearing benefits. At least one Democrat on that committee, Representative Stephanie Murphy of Florida, warned that she would not support advancing the individual pieces out of the Ways and Means Committee until she could read that legislation in full. The menu of tax increases, for example, likely won’t be released until this weekend, as Democrats privately haggle over the scope. “I don’t think it’s asking too much to want to see this Ways and Means bill in its entirety before voting on any part of it,” Ms. Murphy said, later joining Republicans in voting against the paid family and medical leave section of the legislation. “I think that’s asking for the absolute minimum — especially when we are proposing to create or change programs that will affect my constituents at every stage of their lives.” The Education and Labor Committee’s portion of the bill, also under consideration on Thursday, would make prekindergarten universal for 3- and 4-year-olds; fund two years of tuition-free community college and increase the value of Pell Grants; provide money to rebuild and modernize school buildings; expand job training programs; and extend child nutrition programs bolstered on an emergency basis during the pandemic. The Committee on Natural Resources, which has partial purview over climate change programs, will try to raise the fees for fossil fuel companies that explore and drill on public lands and waters; expand leasing of offshore sites for wind energy; spend up to $3.5 billion on a new civilian and tribal climate corps; and boost funding for wildfire control, climate resilience and adaptation to a warmer planet. Smaller pieces of the bill will be drafted by the science and small business committees.
Democrats Propose 2% Tax On Stock Buybacks To Offset Their $3.5 Trillion Budget Plan - Senators Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) proposed a bill Friday to levy a new tax on the booming market for corporate stock buybacks, putting yet another target on Wall Street as Democrats propose a slew of new tax measures to help shore up funds for a $3.5 trillion budget bill facing tough opposition from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. The proposal, called the Stock Buyback Accountability Act, would levy a 2% excise tax on the amount corporations spend to buy back their own stock—a common practice that returns funds to shareholders without generally requiring taxes. In a statement, Wyden said the bill "ends the preferential [tax] treatment" for stock buybacks as he railed against corporations for using the tax savings from former President Donald Trumps' Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 to fuel near-record stock buybacks during the pandemic.According to the bill, the 2% excise tax would not apply to buybacks used to fund employee pension plans or employee stock plans.In a Monday note to clients, Goldman Sachs analysts estimated U.S. companies are on track to buy back about $800 billion in their own stock this year, suggesting the proposed excise tax could raise about $16 billion annually.Stock buybacks are only the latest target for Democrats as they look to bolster revenues through a slew of proposed tax measures, including newly proposedtaxes on derivatives and hedge fund profits, alongside longer-standing proposalsto increase income taxes on corporations and ultra-wealthy Americans. “A few decades ago, a majority of Wall Street capital funded the real economy—wages, machinery, research, new construction, but today, much of that capital is funneled back to wealthy executives in the form of stock buybacks, and only about 15 percent goes to the real economy," Brown said in a statement Friday. "Instead of spending billions buying back stocks and handing out CEO bonuses, it’s past time Wall Street paid its fair share and reinvested more of that capital into the workers and communities who make those profits possible."Thanks to surging corporate profits ushered in by the Trump tax cuts in 2017, corporations did a record $806 billion in buybacks in 2018, roughly 30% more than the prior record from one year earlier. This week, Democrats started drafting a massive budget reconciliation package filled with party priorities that didn't make it into a separate bipartisan infrastructure package. Though the bipartisan infrastructure's price tag was trimmed to satisfy GOP lawmakers, the budget resolution bill would use the Senate’s special reconciliation process to allow Democrats to sidestep Republican support and pass the spending bill with just 51 votes instead of the usual 60. That would still require support from all 50 Senate Democrats, including moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), both of whom have voiced opposition to the budget bill's proposed cost. Citing concerns over heightened inflation, Manchin has said he'll support up to $2 trillion in new spending, but only if Democrats can offset the price tag with cost savings and revenues.
Unemployment benefits expire for millions in the U.S., without pushback from Biden. -Expanded unemployment benefits that have kept millions of Americans afloat during the pandemic expired on Monday, setting up the abrupt cutoff of assistance to 7.5 million people as the Delta variant rattles the pandemic recovery.The end of the aid came without objection from President Biden or his top economic advisers, who have become caught in a political fight over the benefits and are now banking on other federal help and an autumn pickup in hiring to keep vulnerable families from foreclosure and food lines.The $1.9 trillion economic aid package Mr. Biden signed in March included extended and expanded benefits for unemployed workers, additional weeks of assistance for the long-term unemployed and the extension of a special program to provide benefits to gig workers who traditionally do not qualify for unemployment benefits.Monday’s expiration means that 7.5 million people will lose their benefits entirely and another three million will lose the $300 weekly supplement.Republicans and small business owners have assailed the extension of aid, contending that it has fueled a labor shortage by discouraging people from looking for work. Liberal Democrats and progressive groups have pushed for another round of aid, saying millions of Americans remain vulnerable.Evidence so far suggests the programs are playing at most a limited role in keeping people out of the work force. States that ended the benefits early, for example, have seen little if any pickup in hiring relative to the rest of the country.Even in the industries that have had the hardest time finding workers, many people don’t expect a sudden surge in job applications once the benefits expire. Other factors — child care challenges, fear of the virus, accumulated savings from previous waves of federal assistance and a broader rethinking of Americans’ work preferences in the wake of the pandemic — are also playing a role keeping people out of work
US Has No Intention of a Global Military Retreat Despite Biden’s Promise - The US’s disastrously chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan has ended. Whether Taliban rule itself will descend into chaos as financial and other crises unfold is far from clear, but the regime has close friends in the region, especially within Pakistan’s military. Neighbouring China sees many opportunities for gain. Both these countries depend on a perceived level of Taliban-run stability, but even more distant states are already elbowing their way in. In his speech from the White House this week, 24 hours after the last US soldier left Kabul, Biden accepted some responsibility for the mess – while also blaming others – but went on to make a much more general point: “This decision about Afghanistan is not just about Afghanistan. It’s about ending an era of major military operations to remake other countries.” His declaration that such operations, especially when they included state-building, were no longer among US policy priorities, is widely assumed to be a major change of direction It’s true that with Iraq, at least, the initial focus was on building a new state intended to be a shining example of a pure neoliberal domain. Yet the transitional government known as the Coalition Provisional Authority was run from the Pentagon rather than the State Department and was aimed at transforming the Iraqi economy into an example for the region and beyond. Being run from the Pentagon took it far closer to the intentions of the Bush Administration and away from the professionals of the State Department who would ordinarily have been in charge. The US had no involvement in any state-building during the 2011 war in Libya and it was left to the Europeans to make a hash of it. As for the 2014-2018 US-led air war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, that was straightforward counterinsurgency fought from the air rather than the ground, speeding up the global transition to remote warfare.That brings us to the wider record of recent years. What Biden proposes is not new but a continuation of Obama’s policy of getting out of Iraq and, in his second term, cutting back radically on troops in Afghanistan after his initial military onslaught in 2010 failed to force the Taliban to negotiate.Nor does it mean a drawdown in US military operations overseas, but rather two changes in posture. One is to continue Obama’s ‘bring on the drones’ approach that reached its height during the 2014-2018 battle, when ISIS lost more than 50,000 of its supporters in the intense air war, while the few US losses were due to accidents, rather than combat.This is evident across the world, including Mali, Somalia, Iraq, Syria and of course, Afghanistan, where last week’s anti-ISIS-K attack involved an armed drone. Overall, we have firmly entered the age of remote warfare, with very few boots on the ground and instead, reliance on armed drones, strike aircraft, special forces, private military corporations and local militias.The second change lies in the new military budget for the fiscal year 2022 (FY2022) that starts next month. Any drawdown from fighting wars overseas should surely mean lower military spending but Biden has sought a budget of $715bn, which is massive by any stretch of the imagination and close to the highest US military budget during the Cold War. (The UK’s is less than a tenth of that). Moreover, Congress wants to increase that by $25bn to a revised figure of $740bn.
US as Failed State: Covid Booster Shot Mess by Yves Smith -It should come as no surprise that the US is regularly exposed as being incapable of managing its way out of a paper bag. We had the early 2020 Covid test kit fiasco, which never really ended. Even though it was obvious that Delta was coming, the US is already experiencing test shortages, with Covid infections set to worsen as schools open. And that’s before getting to inexcusable data failures, like trying to shift vaccine complaints to VSafe, which was impossibly buggy, and being late with updates to VAERS (and having non-medical admins reject physician reports for arbitrary reasons) and refusing to track breakthrough cases among the vaccinated. And now that the CDC has reversed itself, it’s not clear what the follow through is like on the state and county level.And the list goes on…the CDC not admitting error, such as admitting that surfaces aren’t enough of a Covid vector worth worrying about, leading schools to engage in hygiene theater when case counts rise, and refusing to admit to aerosol transmission or the merits of a layered defense, except in the bowels of its site, leading school administrators to neglect ventilation as a Covid defense.With this history, it’s rich to see CDC and Biden Administration defenders act as if they were all set to offer boosters this fall, when their shambolic messaging and actions scream otherwise.Let’s start with the fact that the US officialdom was loath to admit that boosters would be necessary even though coronavirus infections do not confer long-lived immunity and the Covid vaccine was also not expected to be sterilizing. Mind you, the vaccine-makers themselves were signaling otherwise; recall the Pfizer news release that its shots conferred “up to” six months of immunity. By contrast, to the extent the likes of the sainted Dr. Fauci mentioned boosters, it was to suggest that they might need to be annual, like for the flu.And how can we be sure that was an after the fact thought? The CDC vaccination cards. They were never intended to prove vaccination status to third parties or track vaccine history. They were envisioned more like dentist appointment card, to remind those in a two-shot regime when to come in for their second installment.The fact that the CDC has no idea who got vaccinated and when is now allowing anyone so minded to get another shot, irrespective of when they had their last one and what type it was.The sudden rush to ready a third round of mRNA shots, and then not be deliver on the changed messaging, is more proof of an inability to plan and execute, or alternatively, of caring more about optics than results. First is the elephant in the room of not knowing if another round right now is such a hot idea given Delta. The press has admittedly done a fine job of burying the top level protest resignations at the FDA over the booster blitz: Dr. Marion Gruber, Director of the FDA’s Office of Vaccines Research and Review, and her deputy, Dr. Philip Krause, resigned to protest the Administration’s vaccine booster policy.. And to be clear, the “politics” are declining vaccine efficacy against Delta, particularly of the supposed gold standard vaccine Pfizer, as confirmed by data from Israel, Mayo, and Imperial College. Israel, which is close to a Pfizer monoculture, is in the midst of a new infection wave and has responded by launching a new round of vaccinations, starting with the elderly and immunocompromised.
White House signals new COVID-19 measures coming for unvaccinated Americans -President Biden will announce on Thursday new steps in his administration's COVID-19 response that involves testing, mandates, and school measures depending on a person's vaccination status, the White House said. White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Wednesday that the new components would affect people across the country. “There are six steps the president’s announcing, there will be new components,” Psaki said. “Some of that will be related to access to testing, some will be related to mandates, some will be related to how we ensure kids will be protected in schools.” The president indicated last week, following the jobs report, that his administration is looking for ways to make it safer for kids to return to school and for workers to return to the office. Psaki said more will be previewed Thursday when the components are finalized. “There will be new components that sure, will of course impact people across the country, but we’re also all working together to get the virus under control, to return to our normal lives,” she added. Biden’s upcoming remarks comes as cases and hospitalizations have increased in areas around the country, in large part due to the highly contagious delta variant. When asked if the new steps will affect Americans’ lives, Psaki said, “it depends on if you’re vaccinated or not.”
Biden announces new vaccine mandates that could cover 100 million Americans - - President Joe Biden on Thursday imposed stringent new vaccine rules on federal workers, large employers and health care staff in a sweeping attempt to contain the latest surge of Covid-19.The new requirements could apply to as many as 100 million Americans -- close to two-thirds of the American workforce -- and amount to Biden's strongest push yet to require vaccines for much of the country."We've been patient, but our patience is wearing thin, and your refusal has cost all of us," Biden said, his tone hardening toward Americans who still refuse to receive a vaccine despite ample evidence of their safety and full approval of one -- the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine -- from the US Food and Drug Administration.He said vaccinated America was growing "frustrated" with the 80 million people who have not received shots and are fueling the spread of the virus. And he acknowledged the new steps would not provide a quick fix. At the center of Biden's new plan is directing the Labor Department to require all businesses with 100 or more employees ensure their workers are either vaccinated or tested once a week, an expansive step the President took after consultation with administration health officials and lawyers. Companies could face thousands of dollars in fines per employee if they don't comply. US Postal Service workers would fall under that rule, a senior administration official told CNN, and employees will be required to be vaccinated or face mandatory weekly testing. The Postal Service, a quasi independent agency, employees more than 640,000 people. Biden also signed an executive order requiring all government employees be vaccinated against Covid-19, with no option of being regularly tested to opt out. The President signed an accompanying order directing the same standard be applied to employees of contractors who do business with the federal government. He said 300,000 educators in federal Head Start programs must be vaccinated and called on governors to require vaccinations for schoolteachers and staff. And Biden announced he would require the 17 million health care workers at facilities receiving funds from Medicare and Medicaid to be fully vaccinated, expanding the mandate to hospitals, home care facilities and dialysis centers around the country.
Biden is requiring the vast majority of federal workers to get vaccinated or face disciplinary measures. --President Biden announced sweeping actions to vaccinate tens of millions of American workers against the coronavirus, including private-sector employees, health care workers and federal contractors.CreditCredit...Al Drago for The New York TimesPresident Biden on Thursday used the full force of his presidency to push two-thirds of American workers to get vaccinated against the coronavirus, reaching into the private sector to mandate that all companies with more than 100 workers require vaccination or weekly testing. Mr. Biden also moved to mandate shots for health care workers, federal contractors and the vast majority of federal workers, who could face disciplinary measures if they refuseThe sweeping actions, which the president announced in a White House speech, are the most expansive actions he has taken to control the pandemic since he assumed the presidency in January, and will affect almost every aspect of American society. They also reflect Mr. Biden’s deep frustration with the roughly 80 million Americans who are eligible for the shots but have not been vaccinated.“We’re going to protect vaccinated workers from unvaccinated co-workers,” Mr. Biden declared from the White House state dining room, with a portrait of Abraham Lincoln looming over his shoulders. “We’re going to reduce the spread of Covid-19 by increasing the share of the work force that is vaccinated in businesses all across America.”Initially reluctant to enact mandates, Mr. Biden is now moving more aggressively than any president in modern history to require vaccination, experts say. Also on Thursday, he ordered mandatory vaccination for nearly 300,000 educators in the federal Head Start Program. He announced that he would use the Defense Production Act to increase the production of rapid testing kits and would work with retailers including Amazon and Walmart to expand their availability. And he said the Transportation Security Administration would now double fines on passengers who refuse to wear masks, among other steps. Initially reluctant to enact mandates, Mr. Biden is now waging an aggressive effort that will also put pressure on private businesses, states and schools to enact stricter vaccination and testing policies as the Delta variant continues its spread across the United States.Mr. Biden is acting through a combination of executive orders and new federal rules. Under his plan, private sector businesses that have 100 or more employees will have to require vaccination, or mandatory weekly testing, for their workers after Mr. Biden instructs the Occupational Safety and Health Administration to draft a rule. Roughly 17 million health care workers employed by hospitals and other institutions that accept Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement will also face strict new vaccination requirements, as will federal workers and contractors.
New U.S. vaccine requirements draw praise, skepticism and outrage. President Biden’s new vaccine requirements, announced Thursday, drew praise from doctors eager to slow the spread of the coronavirus, caution from experts who felt it may be “too little, too late” and condemnation from members of the G.O.P. who called the move “unconstitutional.”Mr. Biden took his most expansive actions yet to control the coronavirus pandemic by mandating shots for 100 million Americans, including some private sector employees, health care workers, federal contractors and the vast majority of federal workers.Although epidemiologists have spent months stressing an urgent need to increase vaccination rates as the highly contagious Delta variant took hold in the United States, Mr. Biden’s plan was unveiled in a deeply polarized environment and even experts seemed split on how effective it will be.Dr. Georges C. Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, said the actions might be “too little, too late,” and warned that Americans opposed to vaccination might dig in and bristle at being told what to do. The American Hospital Association was cautious, warning that the moves “may result in exacerbating the severe work force shortage problems that currently exist.”But Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University, said the policy was necessary, and likened it to military service in a time of war.“To date, we have relied on a volunteer army,” Dr. Schaffner said. “But particularly with the Delta variant, the enemy has been reinforced, and now a volunteer army is not sufficient. We need to institute a draft.”Amazon, which will be shipping Covid-19 testing kits at cost, said it was proud to help with the plan.“We know vaccines, coupled with widespread and convenient testing, serve as powerful tools to help slow the spread of Covid-19 in our communities, keeping the U.S. economy open, and protecting America’s work force,” said Brian Huseman, vice president of public policy for the retailer.The sweeping actions, which the president announced in a White House speech, will impact almost every aspect of American society. They also reflect Mr. Biden’s deep frustration with the roughly 80 million Americans who are eligible for shots but have not been vaccinated. They are also all but certain to be the subject of legal challenges; already, the largest union representing federal workers has raised questions.
Can Biden legally mandate Covid-19 vaccines for workers? – On Thursday, President Joe Biden voiced the frustrations that millions of vaccinated Americans have expressed to each other for months. The US economy is still being squeezed, and many Americans’ lives are in danger, because there is a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” caused by “nearly 80 million Americans who have failed to get the shot.”He also announced several new policies intended to encourage vaccination. The most potent is a rule requiring large employers to protect their workers from unvaccinated colleagues by requiring either vaccination or weekly testing.“The Department of Labor is developing an emergency rule to require all employers with 100 or more employees, that together employ over 80 million workers, to ensure their workforces are fully vaccinated or show a negative test at least once a week,” Biden revealed. Additionally, the Labor Department will “require employers with 100 or more workers to give those workers paid time off to get vaccinated.” That immediately raised the question of whether the Labor Department can actually do that. In response to Biden’s announcement, several GOP governors immediately promised litigation, even though it is far from clear why a state, not a private employer, would be the proper plaintiff to bring such a lawsuit. Vaccine mandates are not unconstitutional. The Supreme Court upheld a local health board’s decision to mandate smallpox vaccinations inJacobson v. Massachusetts (1905). And states routinely require nearly all school-age children to receive a long list of vaccines.In Georgia, for example, nearly all children must be vaccinated against many diseases, including polio, hepatitis B, measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis, meningitis, and septicemia.
‘See you in court’: G.O.P. governors express outrage and vow to fight Biden’s vaccine requirements - Republican governors across the country assailed President Biden’s aggressive moves to require vaccinations as an unconstitutional attack on personal freedoms and vowed to sue the administration to block the requirements. The vaccine mandates Mr. Biden announced on Thursday, affecting tens of millions of private sector employees, health care workers, federal contractors and most federal workers, quickly escalated a political battle between the administration and Republican governors who have spent months fighting against mask rules and other pandemic restrictions even as infections and deaths surged in their states this summer. Now, they are arguing that Mr. Biden’s plan is a big-government attack on states’ rights, private business and personal choice, and promise swift legal action to challenge it, setting up a high-stakes constitutional showdown over the president’s powers to curb the pandemic. “@JoeBiden see you in court,” Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota wrote on Twitter. Gov. Mark Gordon of Wyoming said the new rule “has no place in America,” and said he had asked the state’s attorney general to be ready to take legal action. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton questioned President Biden’s authority to require vaccinations or weekly testing at private businesses with more than 100 workers. “I don’t believe he has the authority to just dictate again from the presidency that every worker in America that works for a large company or a small company has to get a vaccine,” Mr. Paxton said, speaking on a radio show hosted by Steve Bannon, who served as a strategist for Donald J. Trump during part of his presidency. “That is outside the role of the president to dictate.” Mr. Paxton, a vigorous supporter of the sweeping new antiabortion law in Texas, promised to “fight back” in a message on Twitter: “Not on my watch in Texas.” Mr. Biden had anticipated the attacks. In announcing his plan on Thursday, he said that he would do what he could to “require more Americans to be vaccinated to combat those blocking public health,” adding “If those governors won’t help us beat the pandemic, I will use my power as president to get them out of the way.”
Warren urges Amazon to fix algorithm 'feeding misinformation loops' -Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is urging Amazon to create a plan to modify its algorithm after her staff found books spreading misinformation about the COVID-19 pandemic prominently displayed in searches about the virus and vaccines.“As cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, Amazon is feeding misinformation loops through its search and 'Best Seller' algorithms, potentially leading countless Americans to risk their health and the health of their neighbors based on misleading and inaccurate information that they discover on Amazon’s website,” Warren wrote in a letter sent to Amazon CEO Andy Jassy.Warren said that when her staff searched for “COVID-19” and “vaccine,” the first result on the top left corner of the screen was a book that “perpetuates dangerous conspiracies about COVID-19,” including claims that lack scientific basis asserting supplements sold on the author’s website can prevent COVID-19 infection. One of the authors of the book, Joseph Mercola, has been identified by researchers at the Center for Countering Digital Hate as part of the “Disinformation Dozen,” a group that can be traced back to spreading the majority of anti-vaccine content on social media, according to researchers.
Our Two Covid Problems - An uncomfortable fact. We have two problems with Covid in the U.S., not just one. They do overlap, but each on its own is responsible for the persistence of the virus among us.Let me explain. First, people who are virulently anti-vaxx are being media-stirred to be even more anti-vaxx, because “freedom,” with new rebels added by the day. These people would exist anyway, but not in these numbers, except for the culture war that:
- Republicans Party supporters like Richard Viguerie started in the late 1970s and cynically continue to profit from electorally, and
- Democratic Party supporters exacerbate by demonizing anyone on the “idiot side of the political fence.”
The still-approved term for the other side’s supporters, though not said in public by people with standing, is “deplorables.” Lower down on the “people with standing” scale, the term is used freely. For example: Remember when people criticised Hillary Clinton for calling Trump supporters a "basket of deplorables" Once again, she was right. note that it targets “Trump supporters,” meaning allTrump voters, including those who voted Republican just because they couldn’t stomach mainstream Democrats.To put a number to it, that comment tars close to 75,000,000 voters out of the total voting pool of 160 million Americans. That’s a lot of people to disdain. And this remark is certainly not alone. From just this month:And another:You get the idea. Half of the voting public is being driven up to hate the other half, and each side happily participates. As a result, we have a war that will never end unless those promoting it stand down. Which they won’t.All this has made being “deplorable” a badge of honor on the one side……and made treating right-wing voters as if they were “deplorable” a badge of membership on the other.For example, consider this snarky comment… …and this, from the queen of mainstream anti-Trump orthodoxy…Rachel Maddow Rips Fox News For Pushing ‘Horse Dewormer’ For COVID Treatment…which freely conflated using the horse version of ivermectin with using the FDA-approved, known-safe people version available in pharmacies.All of which leads to events like this: So pharmacies are all now requiring dx codes for IVM. Wont fill if c19 related. Naturally if you are concerned about use of veterinary products, what you want to do is aggressively cut off human grade use under medical supervision. This sort of strategy has always worked out well. It’s impossible not to conclude that the pharmacy above is responding to Democratic ecosystem orthodoxy and violating its duty as pharmacists to do it. Reminds one of those (deplorable) days when right-wing pharmacies wouldn’t fill birth control prescriptions.Because of all this, we may be closing in on the maximum percentage of Americans who will be vaccinated, until a greater enough number of deaths — tragedies that touch a great many more families and friends — lays all of us low and humbles the violently angry on every side.
The Bizarre Civil War-Stoking Impulses of the Professional-Managerial Class in the US -- Yves Smith - A couple of years ago, when Lambert would talk about professional pundits and official Democratic spokescritters behaving as if they were trying to stoke civil war in the US, I thought he’d been spending too much time on Twitter and might benefit from a dose of smelling salts. It now looks like he was correct, albeit so early it was still possible that the impulse could have fizzled out or moved in another direction. One of the reasons it’s hard to talk about this obvious yet diffuse and multifaceted development of actively fomenting class hatred is that it doesn’t fall tidily along demographic lines, as much as some factions would like to have you believe otherwise. It’s psychographic.Hatred of The Other was supposed to a hallmark of the uneducated, provincial, and intolerant. Yet we now see bloody, vicious fantasies about what should happen to Them for being wrong-thinking and wrong-acting being not just voiced freely, but even applauded. The immediate manifestation is open hatred for the unvaxxed. The Othering of them takes the form of depicting them as white Trump voting Bubbas, when vaccination rates happen to be relatively low also among blacks, Hispanics, and curiously, PhDs. In a belated admission that the media stereotyping of the unvaxxed is too narrow, minority vaccine-shunners are being rebranded as “vaccine deliberate.”1 One of the new big ways to despise The Bad (Presumed White) unvaxxed is to depict them as unworthy of receiving medical care for Covid because it’s supposedly their fault that they are in this fix. Yet no one bats an eye at treating smokers for cancer and COPD, or STD victims who presumably couldn’t be bothered to use a condom, or the overweight for heart attacks and diabetes or drunks who smash themselves up with their cars, or attempted suicides. If we’re going to go strong form “only the deserving get treated,” we could probably shrink the size of the medical industry by two-thirds. And this sentiment is getting a following. Our IM Doc practices in one of the bluest counties in the US. A recent report:During lunch in the doctor’s lounge word came that an unvaccinated patient had died at the tertiary center he was sent last night. 3 MDs sat at the table next to me and out loud something like this – “WELL THAT DUMB ASS HAD IT COMING”. I sat for a moment and no one else said a word. I could not believe it. I finally had to say something – “My Chairman [a superstar of academic medicine and renown medical ethicist] would have fired my ass on the spot for even thinking something like that about an AIDS patient. That is completely unprofessional and inappropriate to say that out loud.” THAT IS YOUR OPINION, THESE DUMB BUTTS HAVE IT COMING – was the reply.They are getting meaner and more brazen by the day – as the whole vaccine narrative continues to become unhinged more every day.I am feeling that I am getting the idea what it was like to watch normal happy German citizens turn into the SS. Admittedly I wasn’t there, but particularly coming from a clutch of doctors, this line of talk sounds a bit too much like Lebensunwertes Leben for my comfort.The other justification for punishing the yahoos is that they pose a contagion threat. The problem is that’s now hard to support with the fact that the vaccines were never approved based on preventing infection, but severe cases. We pointed early to data out of Israel, which has since been confirmed, showing that case levels were proportional among the vaccinated and unvaccinated as of July. That’s 5-6 months after most got a Pfizer jab, and appears to be a combo of diminishing protection over time plus Delta somewhat evading the vaccines. Other studies have confirmed diminishing vaccine efficacy.
Misguided communications are almost as damaging as COVID- When it comes to COVID-19, complexity has taken the place of simplicity. Convoluted and confusing terminology is used to explain available data on the virus. Intentional or not, the result is the dissemination of conflicting and often misleading information being put forth by government agencies, independent scientists and other experts, and few people know how to accurately interpret it. As a scientist for many years, I’ve come to realize the significance of differentiating what has proven to be true and that there are areas that need further study. This is critically relevant if one is going to effectively address risks associated with COVID-19. Further, effective communication of risks needs to consider imparting information in a format that the public can clearly understand. Not only is it counterproductive to explain information in a way that is difficult to decipher, but misleading graphs and charts of every sort have been used to manipulate information, leaving those listening angry, scared, unsure of what to do, and turning to unreliable sources for their health information. Even the U.S. president and surgeon general have warned the public about the threat of misinformation. Recently, a critical care physician at Baton Rouge General said, “We have two pandemics. We have a pandemic of a Delta virus that’s ravaging our community. And, we have a pandemic of misinformation.” While it seems apparent to everyone that communication associated with COVID-19 risks needs to be more effective, the attainment of these goals and objectives, a “path forward,” has not been elucidated. The question is why. There is some concern that the messaging about COVID-19 is not straightforward because it is tinged with a political agenda. Whatever the reason, the results are clear — poor health, fear and in some cases, unnecessary death.
Watch: Rand Paul Calls For "Five Years In Jail" For Fauci Lying To Congress - Appearing on Hannity Wednesday night, Senator Rand Paul responded to the emergence of yet more proof that Anthony Fauci lied to Congress regarding the funding of coronavirus gain of function research, reminding viewers that the offence is a felony punishable by five years jail time. “I find that hard to believe that we still would have someone with such poor judgment, who believes that even a pandemic would be worth it, that this person is in charge of the research for our government, I find that astounding,” Paul declared.“The judgment that we should continue to fund this lab and—that the virus in all likelihood came from the lab. I think it’s such incredibly poor judgment that he should be immediately removed,” Paul added.The Senator added, “We’ve referred it to the Department of Justice. I don’t think Biden’s Department of Justice will do anything with it but yes, it is very dangerous to have public officials who we need to have trust in coming and lying to us, but [Fauci] has lied dozens of times.”Paul continued:“Usually, he tells us that it’s for our own good but yes, he has dissembled, he has obfuscated—there’s other nicer words—but he has definitely lied to the American public and he should be held responsible but not just that.” Watch:
The next attack on the Affordable Care Act may cost you free preventive health care - Many Americans breathed a sigh of relief when the Supreme Court left the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in place following its third major legal challenge in June 2021. This decision left widely supported policies in place, like ensuring coverage regardless of preexisting conditions, coverage for dependents up to age 26 on their parents’ plan and removal of annual and lifetime benefit limits.But the hits keep coming. One of the most popular benefits offered by the ACA, free preventive care through many employer-based and marketplace insurance plans, is under attack by another legal domino, Kelley v. Becerra. As University of Michigan law professor Nicholas Bagley sees it, “[t]his time, the law’s opponentsstand a good chance of succeeding.”We are public health and economics researchers at Boston University who have been studying how preventive care is covered by the ACA and what this means for patients. With this policy now in jeopardy, health care in the U.S. stands to take a big step backward. The Affordable Care Act tried to achieve the twin ideals of making health care more accessible while reducing health care spending. It created marketplaces for individuals to purchase health insurance and expanded Medicaid to increase coverage for more low-income people.One way it has tried to reach both goals is to prioritize preventive services that maximize patient health and minimize cost, like cancer screenings, vaccinations and access to contraception. Eliminating financial barriers to health screenings increases the likelihood that common but costly chronic conditions, such as heart disease, will be diagnosed early on.Section 2713 of the ACA requires insurers to offer full coverage of preventive services that are endorsed by three federal groups: the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices and the Health Resources and Services Administration. This means that eligible preventive services ordered by your doctor won’t cost you anything out of pocket. For example, the CARES Act used this provision to ensure COVID-19 vaccines would be free for many Americans.Removing the financial barrier has drastically reduced the average cost of a range of preventive services. Our study found that the costs of well-child visits and mammograms were reduced by 56% and 74%, respectively, from 2006 to 2018. We also found that the ACA reduced the share of children’s preventive checkups that included out-of-pocket costs from over 50% in 2010 to under 15% in 2018. Israel fighting record breaking surge in Covid-19 cases despite high levels of vaccination News.com.au – news video - What was the world’s most vaccinated country has broken another record – for the most new Covid-19 cases per million people, and it has experts worried.
Mobile payments lay foundation for digital vaccine passports -- Like all restaurants in New York, 5 Napkin Burger's staff is responsible for ensuring guests are vaccinated against COVID-19. It doesn't have the right tools for the job, but it knows where it wants to get them: from its payments vendor. The pandemic changed a lot about how people make payments — and crucially, it changed when they pay. Instead of waiting for a check at the end of a meal, many patrons pay up front through a mobile ordering app. Currently, about 80% of the 5 Napkin Burger's transactions are made from QR codes on a mobile device. "It would be helpful if the payment experience could be tied to the vaccine checks," said Robert Gaurino, the restaurant chain's CEO. "Even with something as simple as takeout we still have people coming into the restaurants. It's a challenge to eliminate face-to-face interaction while improving user experience and to comply with the new requirements."
Apple’s App Store payment policy dealt blow by judge in epic antitrust case -- Apple was ordered by a court to allow developers to steer consumers to outside payment methods for mobile apps, in a ruling that is a severe blow to the iPhone maker. A federal judge granted an injunction sought by Epic Games Friday while also ordering the game maker to pay damages to Apple for breach of contract. The order could take a big bite out of the profitability of the App Store: according to analysts the App Store takes in more than $20 billion a year with a profit margin above 75%. The decision is a significant setback for the world’s most valuable company as it faces growing antitrust scrutiny from lawmakers and global regulators. Apple is expected to appeal, setting the stage for the fight to carry on for at least another year and possibly make its way to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Microsoft warns of hackers exploiting Windows vulnerability -Microsoft this week warned that hackers are actively exploiting a vulnerability in its Windows program, urging customers to take steps to shore up security. “Microsoft is investigating reports of a remote code execution vulnerability in MSHTML that affects Microsoft Windows,” the company wrote in a security alert issued Tuesday. “Microsoft is aware of targeted attacks that attempt to exploit this vulnerability by using specially-crafted Microsoft Office documents.” Microsoft warned that an attacker could target victims through Microsoft Office documents, with users tricked into opening a malicious document, which opens a page on Internet Explorer that downloads malware onto the system. While the company noted that it was investigating the vulnerability, it urged users to keep antivirus software up to date, and that both Microsoft Defender Antivirus and Microsoft Defender for Endpoint worked to detect the vulnerability. It also wrote that disabling its ActiveX software framework from installation in Internet Explorer would “mitigate the attack.” “Upon completion of this investigation, Microsoft will take the appropriate action to help protect our customers,” the company wrote. “This may include providing a security update through our monthly release process or providing an out-of-cycle security update, depending on customer needs.” The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s (CISA) U.S. Computer Emergency Readiness Team (US-CERT) on Tuesday sounded the alarm on the vulnerabilities, tweeting that CISA “encourages users and organizations to review Microsoft's mitigations and workarounds to address” the vulnerability.
The Federal Investigation of 9/11 Ignored Recorded, Eyewitness Accounts of Firefighters Who Heard Explosions Just Before the Towers Collapsed - Pam Martens - On September 11, 2001 we were living in the quaint town of Garden City, Long Island, New York. The town was a 46-minute ride to Manhattan on the Long Island Rail Road. That easy proximity to the Big Apple meant that many folks in the town worked for financial firms, including those located in the World Trade Center Towers. It also meant that Garden City was among the suburban towns that suffered significant loss of life on 9/11: 23 of our residents never came home on the Long Island Rail Road that day – or any day thereafter. Almost every person in Garden City knew someone who had died: a son, a wife, a husband, a parent, a neighbor, a colleague, or a fellow church member. Of the 23 from Garden City who had perished on that day, 11 worked for the trading house, Cantor Fitzgerald. Of those 11, there were 4 young men in their twenties. Cantor Fitzgerald’s headquarters were located on the 101st to 105th floors of One World Trade Center, the North Tower. That was the first Tower to be hit on 9/11, at 8:46 a.m. The ensuing raging fire, smoke and debris blocked off the staircase as an exit route to the floors above. Everyone who reported to work that day at Cantor Fitzgerald perished, 658 people, or two-thirds of its New York workforce at the time. The Cantor Fitzgerald losses represented 22 percent of the 2,996 people who died on 9/11. Today, when it comes to climate change or the pandemic, government officials tell us to follow the science. But when it came to 9/11, government officials have effectively been telling Americans for two decades to ignore the scientists. We’re talking about the 3,486 architects and engineers who have signed their names to a petition to re-open the 9/11 investigation, because they feel strongly that:“…there is sufficient doubt about the official story and therefore the 9/11 investigation must be re-opened and must include a full inquiry into the possible use of explosives that might have been the actual cause of the destruction of the World Trade Center Twin Towers and Building 7.”Thousands of architects and engineers in the U.S. and abroad have challenged the federal government’s final report that explains why the Twin Towers collapsed. Thefinal report was issued by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) on October 26, 2005. That report lists 13 NIST investigators, 78 contributors to the investigation, and 5 NIST “experts and consultants.” That’s a total of 96 people versus the 3,486 architects and engineers who say the federal government’s report is unreliable and must be re-opened.NIST’s final report on the collapse of World Trade Center 7 (WTC 7), a 47-story, steel-framed building that was not hit by a plane, but collapsed in free fall at 5:20 p.m. on 9/11, was released by NIST on November 8, 2008 – more than seven years after the controversial event had occurred. (For the controversy surrounding statements made by Larry Silverstein in 2004 regarding WTC 7 on the PBS Program “America Rebuilds,” see here.)The architects and engineers and physics experts who are challenging the NIST version of events surrounding the collapse of the Twin Towers, write as follows: “What can explain the near-total pulverization of approximately 8.8 million square feet of 5.5-inch-thick lightweight concrete flooring and the near-total dismemberment of 220 stories of steel structure? [Each Tower was 110 stories.] NIST provides no explanation, and gravity alone appears to be implausible. A simple analysis of the approximate amount of energy required to pulverize the concrete and dismember the steel structures indicates that about 1,255 gigajoules of energy would have been required, far exceeding the estimated 508 gigajoules of gravitational potential energy contained in the buildings.
Natalie Edwards Was Imprisoned this Month by the U.S. for Blowing the Whistle on Wall Street Banks’ Laundering of Dirty Money - Natalie Mayflower Sours Edwards received her Ph.D. in 2007 from Virginia Commonwealth University. On Friday morning, September 3, Edwards began serving a six-month sentence, to be followed by three years of supervised release, in the Federal Prison Camp known simply as “Alderson” in Alderson, West Virginia. There is currently a notice on the prison camp’s website that reads: “All visiting at this facility has been suspended until further notice.” This means that a woman who set out to help her country ferret out criminal money laundering now finds herself unable to even visit with her husband or her 16-year old daughter.Edwards is the heroic former Treasury official who tried in vain to get her superiors in the federal government to act on her concerns. Left with no other options to get action, she turned over documents to a BuzzFeed News reporter that became the core of theFinCEN Files, a collaborative investigation involving BuzzFeed News, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists and 108 other news organizations.In effect, Edwards spawned an international news bureau focused on exposing the flow of dirty money around the globe by big name banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Standard Chartered, and Bank of New York Mellon. One in-depth report at the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) captures the magnitude of Edwards’ service to the public interest with this headline: “Global banks defy U.S. crackdowns by serving oligarchs, criminals and terrorists: The FinCEN Files show trillions in tainted dollars flow freely through major banks, swamping a broken enforcement system.”Part of that broken enforcement system is FinCEN itself. FinCEN is an acronym for the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a unit of the U.S. Treasury Department where banks are required to report suspicions of illicit money transactions. The filing forms are known as SARs, short for suspicious activity reports. Edwards turned over more than 2,000 of these SARs to her media contact at BuzzFeed News. What Edwards found, and is borne out by the reporting that followed her document disclosures, is that banks file these reports simply to cover their behinds, then they continue laundering the money for the same corrupt officials. FinCEN is either structured to look the other way and/or too afraid of the political heft of the banking lobby to take any meaningful actions to counter this vast illicit money machinery. Edwards’ leaked documents, and the attendant international media coverage, unearthed a mind-numbing level of money laundering at global banks. That, in turn, provided the momentum for the United States Congress to pass critical anti-money laundering legislation in January. Edwards’ heroic actions thus not only resulted in award-winning journalism around the globe (including the FinCEN Files being named as a finalist for the 2021 Pulitzer Prize in International Reporting) but her courageous whistleblowing sparked this critically-needed legislation to protect the banking system of the United States and thus the nation’s national security. Edwards deserves a pardon from President Biden, not to be sitting in a Federal Prison Camp where she cannot have visitors because COVID-19 is skyrocketing in the stateof West Virginia. Please considering signing the Pardon Petition for Edwards and forwarding it to your email contact list with a note asking your friends and family to do the same. For how other whistleblowers have been treated when they attempt to expose corruption at the mega banks on Wall Street, see our past reporting below.
Banks escalate fight over IRS reporting in Biden budget plan — The financial services sector is girding for an extended battle over a legislative proposal requiring banks and other institutions to report customer account data meant to bring in more federal tax dollars. The measure is being considered by lawmakers as a source of revenue in the Biden administration's proposed $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation plan. It could result in banks having to report transaction data for any account with at least $600 of inflows or outflows annually. Bankers and even some consumer advocates have blasted the idea, which first garnered attention this past spring as part of the administration's American Families Plan, as a compliance headache and a privacy nightmare for customers. Financial institutions say they already report reams of data to the Internal Revenue Service.
Jamie Dimon’s Bank Has Been Moving Fast and Breaking Things – Like Money Laundering Laws. Now It’s Got Its Own Digital Coin and Bespoke Blockchain by Pam Martens - JPMorgan Chase has created its own digital coin called JPM Coin. The bank announced last October that the JPM Coin was being used commercially for the first time by “a large technology client to send payments around the world,” according to reporting at CNBC.According to JPMorgan’s website, the JPM Coincurrently represents just U.S. dollars but the bank anticipates that it “will be extended to other major currencies, subject to market demand.”According to the trademark application for JPM Coin that was filed with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, the JPM Coin is defined as follows:“Downloadable and recorded software for use in connection with transferring, managing and processing cryptocurrency, digital currency, virtual currency, and digital tokens based on blockchain technology.”JPM Coin runs on the Quorum blockchain, a network the bank developed as a private version of the Ethereum network, whose native crypto currency is Ether. According toa press release issued last fall, JPMorgan Chase sold Quorum to ConsenSys on August 25, 2020. (It just so happens that the co-founder of the Ethereum network, Joe Lubin, is also the founder of ConsenSys.) The same press release indicates that JPMorgan Chase made “a strategic investment” in ConsenSys, adding this: “Since the launch of Quorum in 2016, ConsenSys and J.P. Morgan have collaborated to make Ethereum the platform of choice for enterprises building secure and customizable business networks at scale.” “Secure” is clearly a term of art in the crypto world as opposed to being what a typical banking client of a major bank would consider “secure.” The Ethereum platform has been the target of multiple hacking operations, including last month’s $610 million hack of the Poly Network, a company that facilitates crypto transfers between different blockchains. And that was not the first time Ethereum has been involved in a hack.Last September, a book by the former Bloomberg News reporter, Matthew Leising, was released by Wiley. The book title did little to buttress the idea of Ethereum as a “secure” platform. It read: “Out of the Ether: The Amazing Story of Ethereum and the $55 Million Heist That Almost Destroyed It All.”That former heist occurred in 2016, and yet, the following year major global banks including JPMorgan Chase, UBS, Credit Suisse, Bank of New York Mellon were among the founding members of the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance, which said its goal was to “augment Ethereum, enabling it to serve as an enterprise-grade technology….”JPMorgan Chase’s deep involvement in this “volatile sector,” which now includes its own crypto coin and blockchain investments, should warrant the immediate attention of its federal regulators.
Bank profits were strong in 2Q, but margin pressure persists — U.S. banks reported strong profits for a second consecutive quarter, though the industry relied on a decline in provision expenses as net interest margins fell to another record low. The nation’s banks reported net income of $70.4 billion in the second quarter of 2021, which was 8% lower than the previous quarter’s profits but more than 280% greater than a year earlier, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said in the Quarterly Banking Profile, released Wednesday. The industry’s second-quarter profit was driven by a 117%, or $73 billion, decline in loan-loss provisions from a year earlier to negative-$10.8 billion, according to the FDIC. However, provisions rose $3.7 billion from the previous quarter.
FDIC: Problem Banks Declined, Residential REO Declined in Q2 - The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q2 2021 this week: Net income totaled $70.4 billion, an increase of $51.9 billion (281 percent) from the same quarter a year ago, primarily due to a $73 billion (117.3 percent) decline in provision expense....Total loan and lease balances increased $33.2 billion (0.3 percent) from the previous quarter. This was the first quarterly increase in loan volume since second quarter 2020. An increase in credit card loan balances (up $30.9 billion, or 4.1 percent), supplemented by an increase in auto loan balances (up $18.9 billion, or 3.8 percent), drove the growth.Loans that were 90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status (i.e., noncurrent loans) continued to decline (down $13.2 billion, or 10.8 percent) from first quarter 2021. The noncurrent rate for total loans declined 12 basis points from the previous quarter to 1.01 percent. Net charge-offs also continued to decline (down $8.3 billion, or 53.2 percent) from a year ago. The total net charge-off rate dropped 30 basis points to 0.27 percent—the lowest level on record.The FDIC reported the number of problem banks declined by four from the first quarter to 51.This graph from the FDIC shows the number of problem banks and assets at 51 institutions.Note: The number of assets for problem banks increased significantly back in 2018 when Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas was added to the list (it must still be on the list given the assets of problem banks).The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) declined from $1.73 billion in Q2 2020 to $0.85 billion in Q2 2021. This is the lowest level of REOs in many years. (probably declined sharply due to foreclosure moratoriums and forbearance programs).This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.
CFPB orders ISA provider to comply with consumer protection laws — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has hit a provider of income-share agreements with a consent order, alleging that the company failed to comply with consumer protection law. Better Future Forward Inc., a nonprofit based in Virginia, “falsely represented” to students that their ISA products were not a type of loan, according to a CFPB press release. It is the first time that a national regulator has asserted that the alternative educational finance product is a form of student loan debt. The watchdog agency also said that the firm failed to provide adequate disclosures to customers and violated a federal ban on prepayment penalties imposed on borrowers who seek to pay off debts early.
CFPB accuses LendUp of again deceiving borrowers - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is accusing the online lender LendUp of violating a five-year-old consent order and deceiving thousands of borrowers about the cost of its installment loans. The Oakland, California, company misrepresented the benefits of repeat borrowing by claiming that certain borrowers would gain access to larger loans at lower rates, the CFPB said in a lawsuit filed Wednesday. The suit also alleges that LendUp illegally failed to provide timely and accurate notices to consumers whose loan applications were denied. “Not only did LendUp structure its business around wholesale deception and keeping borrowers in cycles of debt, the company doubled down after getting caught the first time,” acting CFPB Director Dave Uejio said in a press release. “We will not tolerate this illegal scheme or allow this company to continue preying on vulnerable consumers.”
OCC announces formal plan to undo Trump-era CRA rule — The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency made good on a promise to rescind the agency's unilateral reforms of the Community Reinvestment Act. The agency on Wednesday proposed to revert its CRA regulations to the previous framework in effect since 1995. The rescission proposal, with comments due by Oct. 29, would undo virtually the entire rule finalized under the Trump administration and former Comptroller Joseph Otting in 2020. It would also further align the OCC with the CRA rules enforced by the other bank regulators in advance of their attempting to develop an interagency overhaul of the anti-redlining law.
Wells Fargo fined $250 million for mortgage violations - Regulators ordered Wells Fargo on Thursday to pay a $250 million penalty in connection with problems in its home lending unit and violations of a 2018 consent order. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency also placed new restrictions on business practices in the scandal-plagued bank’s mortgage division. Wells, which has been operating under an asset cap for three and a half years, will now also be restricted from acquiring certain residential mortgage servicing rights, among other constraints. “Wells Fargo has not met the requirements of the OCC’s 2018 action against the bank. This is unacceptable,” acting Comptroller Michael Hsu said in a press release.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.23%"
- Note: This is as of August 29th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.23%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 3.25% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.23% as of August 29, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 1.63%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 29 basis points to 3.63%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 34 basis points to 7.52%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 1 basis point to 3.49%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 2 basis points to 3.33%.“The share of loans in forbearance decreased by two basis points last week, with both new requests and exits remaining at a slow pace as we reached the end of August,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “There was another large shift in the location of many FHA and VA loans, which have been bought out of Ginnie Mae pools and moved onto servicer balance sheets. As a result, there was a sharp drop in the share of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance, and an offsetting increase in the share of portfolio loans in forbearance. These buyouts enable servicers to stop advancing principal and interest payments, and work with borrowers to begin paying again before they are resecuritized into Ginnie Mae pools.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.05% to 0.04%."
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased --
Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of September 7th. From Black Knight: Forbearances Decrease:The number of active forbearance plans fell by 92K (-5.4%) this week, driven by lingering August expirations and new activity taking place in September. Volumes fell significantly across all investor classes, with portfolio/PLS plans seeing the greatest decline at 40K (-7.7%). Plans were also down 26K among both FHA/VA and GSE loans, for -3.8% and -5.1% declines, respectively. Overall, plan volumes are now down 129K (-7.4%) from the same time last month and have fallen by 3.1M (-67%) from their peak in May 2020. Additional activity is expected later in the month as well, with nearly 540K plans still scheduled for review for extension/removal in September. Of those, nearly 400K are set to reach their final plan expirations based on current allowable forbearance term lengths. Significant volume declines could still be seen in coming weeks as those plans reach their final expirations and exiting borrowers return to making mortgage payments in October. Black Knight reports 1,618,000 loans in forbearance, or 3.1% of all mortgages.
Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Huge Wave of Foreclosures – McBride - Previously I wrote Forbearance, Delinquencies and Foreclosure and I argued:With house prices up sharply year-over-year … very few borrowers will have negative equity, and most seriously delinquent borrowers will be able to sell their house, as a last resort, and avoid foreclosure. So, although foreclosures will increase from the record low levels, it will take some time (probably in 2022), and there will not be a huge wave of foreclosures like following the housing bubble.First, the MBA estimates there are 1.6 million homeowners in forbearance: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 3.25% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.23% as of August 29, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. Here is some new data from Black Knight’s July Mortgage Monitor. First, here is a graph of scheduled expirations of forbearance plans. There will be quite a few plans expiring in September and October.From Black Knight:
- Under the various matrices as they stand, 415K plans will reach their final forborne payment in September, including more than 175K FHA/VA, 125K GSE and 114K portfolio/privately securitized loans
- That’s nearly 20K loans leaving forbearance per business day in September, which servicers must then process through complex post-forbearance loss mitigation waterfalls
- Another 240K active plans are set to reach their final forborne payment in October, followed by 163K in November
- In total, more than 1M forbearances (>60% of active plans) will reach their final expiration over the final four months of 2021, on top of the >150K that already expired in recent months
However, almost everyone has significant equity. From Black Knight: Of borrowers still in plans as of mid-August, some 98% have at least 10% equity in their home – a drastically different dynamic than during the worst of the Great Recession, when more than 40% of all mortgage holders had less than 10% equity and 28% were fully underwater. Even when adding 18 months of deferred principal, interest, taxes and insurance payments onto the total debt amount, only 7% of borrowers in forbearance have less than 10% equity in their home. The bottom line is that most homeowners in forbearance have sufficient equity in their homes, and there will not be a huge wave of foreclosures like following the housing bubble.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 3, 2021.... The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 4 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage application volume fell last week to its lowest level since mid-July, as mortgage rates have stayed just above 3% for several weeks. Refinance volume has been moderating, while purchase volume continues to be lower than expected given the lack of homes on the market,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Economic data has sent mixed signals, with slower job growth but a further drop in the unemployment rate in August. We expect that further improvements will lead to a tapering of Fed MBS purchases by the end of the year, which should put some upward pressure on mortgage rates.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) remained unchanged at 3.03 percent, with points decreasing to 0.33 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With low rates, the index remains elevated.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.
CoreLogic: House Prices up 18.0% YoY in July, All-Time High YoY Increase - The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: U.S. Home Price Index Annual Growth Reaches All-Time High in July, CoreLogic Reports: CoreLogic® ... released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for July 2021. With mortgage rates remaining near record lows, the ongoing challenges of persistent demand and constricted supply continue to put upward pressure on home prices. A recent CoreLogic survey of consumers looking to buy homes shows that, on average, 65.8% of respondents across all age cohorts strongly prefer standalone properties compared to other property types. Given the widespread demand, and considering the number of standalone homes built during the past decade, the single-family market is estimated to be undersupplied by 4.35 million units by 2022.“Home price appreciation continues to escalate as millennials entering their prime home buying years, renters looking to escape skyrocketing rents and deep pocketed investors drive demand,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “On the supply side, it is also the result of chronic under building, especially of affordable stock. This lack of supply is unlikely to be resolved over the next 5 to 10 years without more aggressive incentives for builders to add new units.” ...Nationally, home prices increased 18% in July 2021, compared to July 2020. This is the largest 12-month growth in the U.S. index since the series began (January 1976 – January 1977). On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.8% compared to June 2021....“July’s annual home price growth was the most that we have ever seen in the 45-year history of the CoreLogic Home Price Index,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “This price gain has far exceeded income growth and eroded affordability. In the coming months this will temper demand and lead to a slowing in price growth.”
Housing Inventory Sept 6th Update: Inventory Up 1.4% Week-over-week, Up 43% from Low in early April --This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 3rd, inventory was at 437 thousand (7 day average), compared to 584 thousand for the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 25.1%.Compared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 54%.A week ago, inventory was at 431 thousand, and was down 27.1% YoY. Seasonally, inventory has bottomed. Inventory was about 42.7% above the record low in early April.A couple of interesting points from 2019: In 2019, inventory bottomed at 814 thousand in February (so inventory is still very low compared to normal levels). And, in 2019, inventory peaked at 972 thousand in early August (an increase of 158 thousand, or about 19% from the low). So inventory is less than half of what we'd normally expect, however inventory has increased 131 thousand (close to normal).Key question: Usually inventory peaks in the Summer, and then declines into the Fall. Will inventory follow the normal seasonal pattern, or will inventory continue to increase over the coming months? This will be important to watch for house prices and housing activity. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube. Altos Research has also seen a significant pickup in price decreases - now well above the level of a year ago - but still well below a normal rate for August.
Homebuilder Comments in August: “Supply shortages are getting worse." Some twitter comments from Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a must follow for housing on twitter!): Companies tied to housing revising guidance due to supply chain. Commentary from our builder survey this month indicates things getting worse before they get better. Homes sitting, waiting for materials (dead days). Big delays in windows. Delta outbreaks. In sum, a crapshoot. September 8th 2021
- #Nashville builder: “It's a crap shoot. Some municipalities will issue permits in 1 week, & others are 6-9 months behind. Supply chain is a mess. Windows are now 7 months out, cabinets are 6 months out, etc.” September 8th 2021
- #Chicago builder: “Build cycle increased due to backordered materials including bathtubs, appliances, & ceramic tile. Trades are much more limited in availability & now have some ‘dead days’ with no activity.” September 8th 2021
- #Columbia builder: “2 biggest constraints have been truss capacity & window timelines. Went from foundations sitting to now framed houses that are waiting on windows. Next big concern is cabinet manufacturers.” September 8th 2021
- #Knoxville builder: “One municipality won’t let us pass mechanical/electrical/plumbing inspection until windows are installed, but windows have been on backorder for weeks. Homes just have to sit.” September 8th 2021
- #Phoenix builder: “Houses are just sitting versus progressing each day. Almost every trade is taking longer to perform their task than they did the month prior. This is based on increased starts without increased labor to match.” September 8th 2021
- #LasVegas builder: “Supply shortages are getting worse.” September 8th 2021
- #Denver builder: “Entire supply chain has been disrupted. Main supply issues include trusses, cabinets, tempered glass, & appliances. Labor supply at the trade level continues to be a challenge. Trying desperately to protect our year end closing projections.” September 8th 2021
- #SaltLakeCity builder: “Appliances are always late, cabinets & windows are 16-18 weeks late. Had to change light fixtures to ones we can get.” September 8th 2021
- #DaytonaBeach builder: “Window delays the biggest contributor to delays.” September 8th 2021
- #Jacksonville builder: “Many months of delays due to truss manufacturing problems, both COVID outbreaks closing the plants, & steel shortage for engineered plate productions. Window & sliding glass door manufacturing delays having most effect on cycle time.” September 8th 2021
Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year - 
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through September 7th. Lumber was at $680 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from a peak of $1,733, and up from $640 a year ago. Lumber price are up 6% year-over-year.There were supply constraints over the last year, for example, sawmills cut production and inventory at the beginning of the pandemic, and the West Coast fires in 2020 damaged privately-owned timberland (and maybe again in 2021). The supply constraints have eased somewhat.And there was a huge surge in demand for lumber (demand remains strong).
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Loses Steam in August" From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Loses Steam in August: The Dodge Momentum Index dropped 3% in August to 148.7 (2000=100) from the revised July reading of 154.0. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.The commercial planning component lost 2% in August, while the institutional component fell by 6%. Projects entering the earliest stages of planning have declined following the torrid pace set in the spring. The decline in August was the third consecutive drop in the Momentum Index, which is now off 14% from the most recent high in May, since May the commercial component is down 10% and the institutional component is 22% lower. This reversal comes as prices for materials used in nonresidential buildings increase in combination with a shortage of labor and a rising number of new COVID-19 cases from the Delta variant, all working in concert to undermine confidence in the fledgling construction recovery. There were some pockets of strength in August, however, as more data center, education and warehouse projects moved into planning relative to the prior month. Additionally, the overall level of the Momentum Index is 19% higher than one year ago; institutional planning was up 17% and commercial planning was 20% higher than last year.This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 148.7 in August, down from 154.0 in July.According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but perhaps a pickup towards the end of the year, and growth in 2022 (even with the decline in the August index).
Requiem for the City - THIS PAST TUESDAY, news of a shocking real estate deal came to light. According toThe Real Deal, a publication that focuses on commercial real estate, Brookfield Properties, the owner of a block-long retail corridor on 530 Fifth Avenue, a prime New York City location, is in contract to sell the property for a whopping 36 percent less than the $295 million that it had spent on it in 2014. The trade, in which the property will transfer to a partnership between Aurora Capital and hedge funder Edmond M. Safra for $190 million, is said to be the biggest real estate deal since the beginning of the pandemic, and it does not bode well for the future of New York City.Brookfield is not alone in taking huge losses in commercial real estate in the city. The week before the Brookfield deal, Vornado Realty Trust sold off a number of struggling retail properties in Manhattan for $184.5 million, far below the $366 million that the five properties were purchased for between 2004 and 2006. And Vornado and Brookfield are the lucky ones; other companies that have large investments in retail space now face bankruptcy, with the majority of their assets being handed over to their creditors. All this suggests that investors have lost faith in the post-Covid comeback for which New Yorkers have been waiting with bated breath.The deals are representative of the epochal shift underway in America’s most iconic city. The steep drop in value suggests not only that investors are rethinking their investments but also that they have accepted the premise that the pandemic may have changed the role of cities altogether. New York City, the financial and business capital of the world, and until very recently a hub for tourists, may well be the canary in the coal mine that predicts a decline in the very idea of the megacity. With the Delta virus having halted return-to-office plans, the office tower vacancy rate in Manhattan is stuck at 20 percent. This means that the looming behemoths that made up the city’s iconic skyline are now a silent and sulking lot. When workers do not come into a city, a city can wither; and an examination of slow recovery of retail districts that are close to certain subway stations frequented by New York city commuters prove this. This is simply because the vast economic machinery of the city requires a constant influx of cash. Office workers, now toiling at home, used to provide that. There were lunch-break or after-work shopping sprees to nearby retailers, there were lunches at cafes and restaurants, there are the million other things that are consumed in the course of the day. Students and creatives may still be thronging to the city, but it is the absent army of white-collar office workers whose taxes and transactions keep the city running. The urban cycle of constant production relies on all the people who earn money while being away from home and then spend it to make themselves feel better, feel more successful, more like a somebody rather than a nobody. New York has been all about this equation.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Unchanged Compared to Same Week in 2019 --Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. The occupancy rate was unchanged compared to the same week in 2019 due to Labor Day demand and Hurricane Ida. From CoStar: Labor Day Demand, Hurricane Ida Evacuations Reverse Five-Week US Hotel Occupancy Slide: Labor Day weekend leisure travel and Hurricane Ida-related demand lifted U.S. hotel occupancy out of a five-week slump.After declining for the past five weeks, weekly U.S. hotel occupancy inched up 30 basis points for the week ending Sept. 4 to 61.3%, according to the latest data from CoStar hospitality analytics firm STR. Weekend occupancy, Friday and Saturday, increased to 77%, which was the country’s highest since the first week of August.Compared with Labor Day weekend in 2019, which was a week earlier, occupancy was nearly the same, indicating the desire to travel remains strong despite the increase in COVID-19 cases, and occupancy declines over the past several weeks are more due to the return of in-person schools and the slow materialization of business and group travel. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). Occupancy is above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid - but, according to STR, occupancy has been declining due to both seasonal factors and the "pandemic situation". .With solid leisure travel, the Summer months had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - usually weekly occupancy increases up to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel.
U.S. Ports See Shipping Logjams Likely Extending Far Into 2022 - WSJ - Leaders of some of the busiest U.S. ports expect congestion snarling maritime gateways to continue deep into next year, as the crush of goods from manufacturers and retailers looking to replenish depleted inventories pushes past shipping’s usual seasonal lulls. Ports are already swamped by record numbers of containers reaching U.S. shores during this year’s peak shipping season, and the number of vessels waiting for berth space at Southern California’s gateways is growing as logjams stretch into warehouses and distribution networks across the country. Port leaders, such as Mario Cordero, executive director at the Port of Long Beach, Calif., who have spoken with shipping lines and their cargo customers say the slowdown in container volumes that usually coincides with the Lunar New Year in February, when factories in China typically shut down, is unlikely to offer much relief. “I don’t see substantial mitigation with regard to the congestion that the major container ports are experiencing,” Mr. Cordero said. “Many people believe it’s going to continue through the summer of 2022.” Major U.S. ports were forecast to handle the equivalent of some 2.37 million imported containers in August, according to the Global Port Tracker report produced by Hackett Associates for the National Retail Federation. The figure is the most for any month in records dating to 2002, and NRF projects overall inbound volumes for the year will reach 25.9 million containers, measured in 20-foot equivalent units. That would break the record of 22 million boxes in 2020. Ports have emerged as one of many bottlenecks in global supply chains as ships fill up with boxes carrying electronics, home furnishings, holiday decorations and other goods. Hundreds of thousands of containers are stuck aboard container ships waiting for a berth or stacked up at terminals waiting to be moved by truck or rail to inland terminals, warehouses and distribution centers. When the boxes do move, they are often snarled at congested freight rail yards and warehouses that are full to capacity.Bob Biesterfield, chief executive of C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. the largest freight broker in North America, said shortages of truck drivers and warehouse workers are making shipping delays worse as the need to replenish inventories is at an all-time high. “I don’t think that’s something that just gets fixed in the next four to five months in accordance with the Lunar New Year,” he said. The congestion has contributed to a world-wide shortage of shipping containers and to spiraling costs for ocean freight. The logjam prompted the Biden administration to appoint a ports envoy last month to address how to improve cargo movement following complaints from U.S. businesses facing inventory shortages, shipping delays and rising costs.
Chip Shortage Curtails Heavy-Duty Truck Production – WSJ - The semiconductor shortage is short-circuiting heavy-duty truck production as supply-chain disruptions hamper efforts to meet robust demand for new big rigs.North American production of Class 8 trucks, the big vehicles that haul most domestic freight, sank this summer to its lowest level since May 2020, when the coronavirus had shut down much of the U.S. economy. Equipment makers built 14,920 units in July, the most recent month for which figures were available, while the backlog of trucks ordered but not built nearly tripled from the same month a year ago, to 262,100, according to transportation data provider ACT Research.The production problems began earlier this year and have persisted for months, driving up the cost of used heavy-duty trucks and straining supply lines ahead of the fall, when fleets typically place big orders for new equipment. North American trucking companies, pushing to expand capacity to meet strong freight demand, ordered 36,900 heavy-duty trucks in August, the highest level in five months and up 90% from the prior-year period, according to preliminary figures from ACT.“Everything you want to see for Class 8 demand is there in spades,” “What’s missing are parts.”The global chip shortage has caused auto manufacturers to slash car production, including new cutbacks announced this week by General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. , and is cascading through factories making heavy-duty trucks. Some equipment makers are moving semiconductors from smaller medium-duty trucks to Class 8 production to maximize the value of the chips, Mr. Vieth said. While in the past “we simply ordered and received parts, we’re now reaching far down into our supply chain to assist suppliers in planning for shortages, navigating constraints, and working to help them keep the upstream flow of parts moving,” said David Carson, senior vice president of sales and marketing at Daimler Trucks North America LLC, whose brands include Freightliner. A spokeswoman for Lisle, Ill.-based truck maker Navistar International Corp. said the company has “been experiencing the same challenges as the rest of the commercial truck and automotive sectors.” Raw materials shortages and global shipping bottlenecks are also crimping availability of other components like wiring harnesses, truck mirrors and parts made of plastic, said Don Ake, vice president of commercial vehicles at transportation research firm FTR. “On any given week some of these are fine, and then the next week there are new ones,” he said.Some truck makers aren’t yet booking orders for next year because “component costs are so high right now that it’s difficult for them to quote a good price where it’s profitable for the company but not excessive for the customer,” Mr. Ake said.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 310,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending September 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 310,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 340,000 to 345,000. The 4-week moving average was 339,500, a decrease of 16,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,250 from 355,000 to 356,250. This does not include the 96,198 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 102,521 the previous week.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 339,500. The previous week was revised up. Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,662,831 (SA) from 2,796,781 (SA) the previous week. Note: There are an additional 5,090,524 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 5,413,238 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 3,807,646 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) up from 3,800,000.Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.
The August Employment Situation by Menzie Chinn - The undershoot in nonfarm payroll employment is noticeable, with a flattening in high contact services employment growth. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from June release (blue), July release (red), and August release (black), and August Bloomberg consensus implied level (red square). Source: BLS, Bloomberg (9/2), author’s calculations. The Bloomberg consensus was consistent with constant growth rate; the miss was over 500K. Employment from the household survey rose faster (twice as fast in August), but not enough to change the picture dramatically. Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (black), civilian employment over 16 (brown), and civilian employment adjusted to the NFP concept (pink). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER. Over the past year, civilian employment and nonfarm payroll employment growth as been about the same (3.9% vs. 4.2%). Civilian employment redefined to NFP concept is a bit slower, at 3.6%. Figure 3 highlights the fact that goods production employment (specifically manufacturing) continues to grow, while accommodation and food services employment growth declines slightly (the broader category of leisure and hospitality is flat). Had employment in accommodation and food services risen the same amount in August as it did in July (363K), and all other categories grew as they did, then nonfarm payroll employment would have grown by nearly 400K more (i.e., 635K vs. 435K actual).Torsten Slok observes (note, 9/3): The bottom line is that covid held back hiring in August. With the expected peak in delta, we should begin to see jobs growth pick up again over the coming months.The CDC forecast of 8/30 (posted 9/1), below: The CDC ensemble model places peak deaths at about 2 weeks from now (3 weeks from 8/30). The question in my mind is whether the individual models underlying the CDC ensemble model incorporate the effects of Labor Day travel and the opening of schools — both K-12 and college/university. The dualistic nature of the recovery also shows up in wage data. Figure 4: Average hourly earnings in total private earnings (black), in manufacturing (chartreuse), and in leisure and hospitality services (red), $/hour for production and nonsupervisory workers. Source: BLS. Wage growth has accelerated (as shown by the steepening slope) in the aggregate and in manufacturing. However, wage growth in leisure and accommodation only accelerated as vaccination began — and has continued until exceeding the pre-pandemic trend (5% in log terms). The lack of clear evidence that enhanced benefits have driven a reduction in labor supply means that it’s possible the rising wages are due to other factors depressing supply (fears of exposure to Covid-19, other compensating differentials, or child or parental care constraints, etc.).
Multiple Jobholders are 4.4% of All Employed -- What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has two decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of Table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey of households. At present, multiple jobholders account for just 4.4 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories (in pie chart at right) of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which are illustrated in a pie chart. The distinction between "primary" and "secondary" jobs is a subjective one determined by the survey participants.Note: Not included in the statistics are the approximately 0.26% of the employed who work part-time on what they consider their primary job and full time on their secondary job(s).Let's review the complete series to help us get a sense of the long-term trends. Here is a look at all the multiple jobholders as a percent of the civilian employed. The dots are the non-seasonally adjusted monthly data points, which are quite volatile, and a 12-month moving average to highlight the trend. The moving average peaked in the summer of 1997 and then began trending downward. It is now at 4.5%, and the latest monthly data point is 4.4%. The next chart focuses on all four subcategories referenced in the pie chart. The trend outlier is the series illustrated with the red line: Multiple Part-Time Jobholders. Its trough was in 2002 and trended higher in early 2007, long before Obamacare. At about the same time we also see a steepening decline in the trend for the employed whose hours vary between full- and part-time for either their primary or secondary job.Here is a closer look at the two cohorts that have changed the most since the mid-2000s. We've rescaled the vertical axis to give us a clearer view of the trends.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey reflects labor market before August’s Delta variant surge - EPI Blog\ - Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her initial insights on today’s release of the Jobs and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July. Read the full Twitter thread here.
- Hires ticked down slightly in July but remains up 645k since May. Total separations rose for two months running due to an increase in both layoffs and quits. Quits are high by historical standards as workers may be concerned about rising covid cases or are finding better jobs.pic.twitter.com/H1likO3kS6
- Using the last three months of data by sector to smooth data volatility, it’s clear that there are still many sectors with more unemployed workers than job openings. To be clear, these comparisons only include those who are in the official measure of unemployment. pic.twitter.com/r6C1aR3NX1
- #JOLTS provides a different picture of the labor market, with its data on job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, but it is decidedly a bit out of date as fast changing as the recovery and pandemic has been the last year and a half. https://t.co/zBNnd11mGR — Elise Gould (@eliselgould) September 8, 2021
Number of workers saying employer is requiring vaccines doubled in last month: poll -Nearly one-fifth of U.S. workers said their employer is requiring staff to get vaccinated against COVID-19 as of last month, according to a Gallup survey released Wednesday.The percentage of workers whose employers mandated vaccinations more than doubled from 9 percent to 19 percent between July and August, the pollster found. The poll found that 55 percent of employees say their companies are encouraging but not requiring vaccinations, down from 62 percent in July. The percentage of employees who say their employer is not taking a stance dropped from 29 percent to 26 percent.Some of the nation’s largest employers, including Microsoft, CVS Health and United Airlines, announced vaccine mandates last month amid skyrocketing COVID-19 cases fueled by the highly transmissible delta variant. More companies enacted vaccine requirements after the Food and Drug Administration gave full approval to the Pfizer-BioNTech shot. Other companies are considering harsher penalties for unvaccinated workers as an alternative to a vaccine mandate. Last month, Delta Air Lines announced that it would enact a $200 monthly surcharge on unvaccinated workers enrolled in the company’s health care plan.The U.S. surpassed 650,000 COVID-19 deaths and 40 million cases this week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. August was one of the worst months for the U.S., with more than 4 million new cases. The Gallup poll found that 52 percent of workers support employer vaccine requirements, while 38 percent are opposed, figures that remained unchanged from July. However, the percentage of those who strongly favor vaccine requirements increased from 36 percent to 41 percent.
Many U.S. workers may not be returning to the office until next year. - In the nearly 18 months since the pandemic first forced companies to send their employees to work from home, the date that U.S. employers planned to bring workers back to offices has changed again and again.First it was January, a full year after the coronavirus first surfaced in China. January slipped to July, as tens of millions of people lined up across America to be vaccinated.But then the surge of vaccinations peaked, and the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus drove another spike in cases. For many companies, September became the new July.Now September is mostly out as an option, and it’s anybody’s guess when workers will return to their offices in large numbers. Companies have new variables to consider, including mask mandates that have been dropped and ordered back; evidence that the effectiveness of vaccines, while still strong, may be waning; booster shots; and burned-out workers who are vaccinated at varying rates. There are also the differing infection rates across the country and a shifting power dynamic between employers and employees.
Microsoft Abandons Plan To Fully Reopen Headquarters, Indefinitely Delays Return To US Offices - The Delta variant may be rapidly fading now but major US corporations are already bracing for another burst higher in new cases as the winter approaches, ostensibly due to the imminent arrival of the new Mu variant: case in point, the WSJ just reported that Microsoft is abandoning plans to fully reopen its headquarters and other U.S. sites early next month and won’t set a new date, for now, given uncertainty around Covid-19. “We’ve decided against attempting to forecast a new date for a full reopening of our U.S. work sites in favor of opening U.S. work sites as soon as we’re able to do so safely based on public health guidance,” the software giant said in a blog post. Instead, the software giant said it would move to a 30-day “transition period” approach and notify staff with lead time when offices are slated to generally reopen. Microsoft joins several of its big tech peers which already delayed office reopenings to next year. Last month, Apple said its U.S. corporate offices wouldn’t fully reopen until at least January. Amazon.com earlier that month announced similar plans. Last month, Microsoft said it was delaying the full reopening of its U.S. offices from possibly September to at least Oct. 4 because of "fluid conditions" around the pandemic. At the time, Microsoft also said it would require proof of vaccination for all employees, vendors and any guests entering its U.S. facilities, joining tech companies such as Google and Facebook that are requiring all employees at their domestic campuses to be vaccinated.
U.S. traffic deaths up during pandemic even though mileage down -data (Reuters) - New data shows a sustained increase in U.S. traffic deaths that regulators ascribe to impaired driving, speeding, a failure to wear seats beats and other unsafe behavior since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on Thursday estimated 8,730 people died in car crashes in the first three months of 2021, compared with 7,900 deaths during the same period last year. That's a year-on-year increase of 10.5% despite a 2.1% drop in the number of miles driven, the preliminary data shows. For all of 2020, U.S. traffic deaths rose 7.2% to 38,680, hitting the highest yearly total since 2007 - even though Americans drove 13% fewer miles. The early 2021 deaths were also the highest in a first quarter since 2007. Acting NHTSA Administrator Steven Cliff said in a statement the agency was "working closely with our safety partners to address risky driving behaviors such as speeding, impaired driving, and failing to buckle up." NHTSA said last year that one factor in the big jump in 2020 was that drivers who remained on roads after lockdowns engaged in riskier behavior. Some experts said that as U.S. roads became less crowded, some motorists engaged in more unsafe behavior, including those who perceived police were less likely to issue tickets because of COVID-19. In 2020, deaths involving motorists not wearing seat belts were up 15%, speeding related deaths jumped by 10% and fatal crashes involving alcohol rose 9%.
Maui requiring vaccines for indoor dining, bars - Maui is set to begin requiring indoor diners at the island's restaurants and bars to be vaccinated against the coronavirus. Maui County Mayor Michael Victorino and other government officials announced the change in policy on Tuesday, noting that the restrictions will remain in place for 30 days, according to USA Today. Under the new rules, people will have to provide proof of their vaccination beginning on Sept. 15. Unvaccinated people will only be allowed to order to-go or dine outdoors, with the exception of children 12 or younger who are not eligible to get the COVID-19 vaccine.The island will also implement a 10 p.m. curfew for restaurants and bars and reduce capacity limits for multiple venues to 50 percent from 75 percent in an effort to increase the ability for people to social distance, the news outlet noted. "If the [COVID-19 case] numbers don't come down over the next 30 days, we may have to implement stricter rules and stricter mandates," Victorino said, according to USA Today. Last week, Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi issued new measures to stop the spread of COVID-19, including that customers show proof of vaccination or a negative coronavirus test in order to enter establishments. Victorino noted on Tuesday that Maui would not give people the option to provide a negative COVID-19 test, arguing that most people do not make plans to go out based on the test. He added that tourist numbers in Maui have also plummeted since the announcement.
Revealed: LAPD officers told to collect social media data on every civilian they stop - The Los Angeles police department (LAPD) has directed its officers to collect the social media information of every civilian they interview, including individuals who are not arrested or accused of a crime, according to records shared with the Guardian.Copies of the “field interview cards” that police complete when they question civilians reveal that LAPD officers are instructed to record a civilian’s Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and other social media accounts, alongside basic biographical information. An internal memo further shows that the police chief, Michel Moore, told employees that it was critical to collect the data for use in “investigations, arrests, and prosecutions”, and warned that supervisors would review cards to ensure they were complete. The documents, which were obtained by the not-for-profit organization the Brennan Center for Justice, have raised concerns about civil liberties and the potential for mass surveillance of civilians without justification. “There are real dangers about police having all of this social media identifying information at their fingertips,” said Rachel Levinson-Waldman, a deputy director at the Brennan Center, noting that the information was probably stored in a database that could be used for a wide range of purposes.
With 38 Million Facing Food Insecurity, Hunger in US Soared by Nearly 9% in 2020 - More than 38.2 million Americans struggled with food insecurity at some point last year, a roughly 9% surge in hunger compared with the 2019 level of 35.2 million, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.The USDA’s new report (pdf)—the federal government’s first comprehensive attempt to document how the Covid-19 pandemic and corresponding spike in unemployment exacerbated food insecurity—found that the number of children in the U.S. suffering from hunger increased from 10.7 million in 2019 to 11.7 million last year, also an uptick of approximately 9%.Another USDA report (pdf) released last month showed that federal spending on domestic food and nutrition assistance programs in Fiscal Year 2020 reached a historic high of $122.1 billion, which was 32% greater than the previous year.In addition, roughly 60 million people—close to one in five U.S. residents—received charitable food assistance last year, up 50% from 2019, according to Emily Engelhard, managing director of research at Feeding America, the nation’s largest domestic hunger relief organization. CNNreported Wednesday that the group’s network of 200 food banks and 60,000 food pantries distributed over six billion meals in 2020, an increase of 44% from the year before.Meanwhile, biweekly data from the Household Pulse Survey—a new Census Bureau methodology unveiled soon after the interlinked public health and economic crises began 18 months ago—have revealed that food insecurity declined at various points last year when federal lawmakers provided households with additional income support. Progressive advocates on Wednesday emphasized that hunger, which already affected millions of people in the world’s richest nation well before 2020, would have grown even more severe in the U.S. last year had Congress not allocated billions of dollars to fund anti-poverty measures in response to the coronavirus crisis.
Tennessee teen talking about grandma who died of Covid heckled by adults at school board meeting - A Tennessee teenager who was mocked by adults as he defended masks by explaining his grandmother died of Covid-19 called the moment “complete insanity.” Grady Knox, a junior at Central Magnet School, was mocked and shouted down while speaking at a Rutherford County School Board meeting Tuesday night. A clip of the moment made the rounds of social media, showing adults telling the teenage boy to “shut up” as he gave a personal story to relay his views in favor of mask mandates. Knox told the board that he was worried about being infected at school and bringing the coronavirus home to his grandparents. “They’re higher risk than me, so I don’t want to give them Covid,” Knox said. “This time last year, my grandmother, who was a former teacher at the Rutherford County school system died of Covid because someone wasn't wearing a mask.” A man in the background could be heard telling Knox to “shut up,” and a woman in the background appeared to snicker at him, according to video of the moment. Knox told NBC affiliate WSMV that he couldn’t believe the incident and that it was “complete insanity.” “If they laugh at me about a personal story about my grandmother, that's just disrespectful I feel,” Knox said. “I was shaken a little bit.” He added that he hopes those who view the video understand that the people of Rutherford County are not defined by the adults who heckled him. “As long as I can get my message across, I don't really think it matters what the crowd thinks of me,” Knox said. “Overall, they're not the ones making the decisions for the school.” The school board addressed the issue during a meeting Thursday night by Bill Spurlock, the county’s director of schools. “It was pretty devastating what happened to that young man at this meeting,” Spurlock. “It’s been all over the news, and I really regret that the young man was treated the way he was. We owe him an apology.” A temporary mask mandate that would begin on Sept. 13 and continue until Oct. 14 was passed by the board in a Thursday night vote. The approved motion included an ability to terminate the mandate if the county's positivity rate fell below 10 percent for three consecutive weeks.
Democrats, teachers unions push school reopenings as pandemic expands across Pennsylvania - Democratic governor of Pennsylvania Tom Wolf, together with the teachers’ unions, are pushing the full reopening of in-person schools even as the growing Coronavirus pandemic sweeps across the state. The seven-day average of new cases stands at a 3,564 new cases a day and continues to rise. Two months ago, there were fewer than 75 new cases, after which most social distancing and other public health measures were lifted. On August 30, the number of new cases was 2,389, over 4 times as high at the same time one year ago. Last fall, the partial reopening of schools, with most students learning remotely and class size reduced to 5 or 10 students, produced a massive spike in cases and deaths, overwhelming hospitals and care givers. Teacher Laura Bonanni prepares her kindergarten classroom for planned in-person learning at Nebinger Elementary School in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke) This year, with almost no remote learning, class sizes will return to their previous overcrowded 20, 25 and 30 students per room. One can be certain that covid cases will explode throughout the state. Last week, in a political stunt, Wolf ordered a mask mandate in all K-12 schools, pre-schools and child care centers. However, the order only takes effect this week, after all schools have already reopened. The week before, Wolf claimed he did not have the authority to issue a mask mandate and instead called upon the Republican-controlled state legislature, which was in recess, to pass one, knowing full well they wouldn’t. What concerns Wolf is not the safety of the students and staff, but rather the growing anger over the push to reopen schools and force parents back to work, particularly as unemployment benefits and the eviction moratorium are being allowed to expire by the Biden administration. A mask mandate itself, however, is a red herring under conditions where schools cannot be opened safely under any circumstances Moreover, all other public health measures have already been dropped, including the shutdown of nonessential production, social distancing, contact tracing, vaccinations and others. The State and most school districts have eliminated their COVID dashboards meaning that teachers, staff, parents and students only find out through the grapevine, if at all.
L.A. is set to become the first major U.S. school district to require vaccinations for students.- Los Angeles is poised to become the first major school district in the United States to mandate coronavirus vaccines for students 12 and older who are attending class in person. The district’s elected Board of Education will meet Thursday afternoon to vote on the measure, which is expected to pass with broad support. The Los Angeles Unified School District is the second largest in the nation, serving over 600,000 students, and the mandate could set an important national precedent.Students would need their first vaccine dose by Nov. 21 and their second by Dec. 19 to begin the next semester fully inoculated. Those who turn 12 after those dates will have 30 days after their birthday to receive their first shot.Students participating in in-person extracurricular activities will need both shots by the end of October. The resolution mentions “qualified and approved exemptions,” but does not offer details.The district offers online independent study for those who opt out of in-person learning this year, but so far, only a tiny percentage of students have chosen it.The months before the mandate takes effect will allow the district to conduct outreach and educational programs for families. According to the Los Angeles County Department of Health, 58 percent of the district’s 12-to-18-year-olds have already received at least one vaccine dose.Los Angeles Unified has been operating vaccine clinics in schools, and has the nation’s broadest school testing program, screening all students and staff members weekly. Masks are required for every individual on campus, indoors and outdoors, and staff members must be vaccinated, with limited exceptions for serious medical conditions and sincerely held religious beliefs. “Our goal is to keep kids and teachers as safe as possible and in the classroom,” “A medical and scientific consensus has emerged that the best way to protect everyone in our schools and communities is for all those who are eligible to get vaccinated.” A key constituency supporting the student vaccine mandate is the city’s teachers’ union, United Teachers Los Angeles. Since the start of the pandemic, the group has pushed for stringent safety measures, and during the last academic year, a longer period of remote learning. Initial data on infections at Los Angeles schools this year has been reassuring. According to a Los Angeles Times tracker based on district data, 1,620 active Covid-19 cases had been identified at schools as of Sept. 6; only five were linked to on-campus transmissions, at two schools.
A Generation of American Men Give Up on College – WSJ - Men are abandoning higher education in such numbers that they now trail female college students by record levels. At the close of the 2020-21 academic year, women made up 59.5% of college students, an all-time high, and men 40.5%, according to enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse, a nonprofit research group. U.S. colleges and universities had 1.5 million fewer students compared with five years ago, and men accounted for 71% of the decline. This education gap, which holds at both two- and four-year colleges, has been slowly widening for 40 years. The divergence increases at graduation: After six years of college, 65% of women in the U.S. who started a four-year university in 2012 received diplomas by 2018 compared with 59% of men during the same period, according to the U.S. Department of Education. In the next few years, two women will earn a college degree for every man, if the trend continues, said Douglas Shapiro, executive director of the research center at the National Student Clearinghouse. No reversal is in sight. Women increased their lead over men in college applications for the 2021-22 school year—3,805,978 to 2,815,810—by nearly a percentage point compared with the previous academic year, according to Common Application, a nonprofit that transmits applications to more than 900 schools. Women make up 49% of the college-age population in the U.S., according to the Census Bureau. “Men are falling behind remarkably fast,” said Thomas Mortenson, a senior scholar at the Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education, which aims to improve educational opportunities for low-income, first-generation and disabled college students. American colleges, which are embroiled in debates over racial and gender equality, and working on ways to reduce sexual assault and harassment of women on campus, have yet to reach a consensus on what might slow the retreat of men from higher education. Some schools are quietly trying programs to enroll more men, but there is scant campus support for spending resources to boost male attendance and retention. The gender enrollment disparity among nonprofit colleges is widest at private four-year schools, where the proportion of women during the 2020-21 school year grew to an average of 61%, a record high, Clearinghouse data show. Some of the schools extend offers to a higher percentage of male applicants, trying to get a closer balance of men and women.
Rutgers bars unvaccinated student from attending virtual classes - A New Jersey student has said he is barred from taking classes at Rutgers University because he has not been vaccinated — even though he is only studying virtually from home. Logan Hollar, 22, told NJ.com that he largely ignored theschool’s COVID mandate “because all my classes were remote” from his Sandyston home, some 70 miles from Rutgers’ campus in New Brunswick.But he was locked out of his Rutgers email and related accounts when he went to pay his tuition at the end of last month — and was told that he needed to be vaccinated even though he has no plans to attend in person.Hollar has now been forced to miss classes that started Sept. 1 — and has been warned it could be weeks before a decision is reached on his application for an exemption to the vaccine mandate, he said.“I’ll probably have to transfer to a different university,” Hollar told NJ.com, saying he knows of at least one other student in the same position.“I find it concerning for the vaccine to be pushed by the university rather than my doctor,” he told the outlet.“If someone wants to be vaccinated, that’s fine with me, but I don’t think they should be pushed,” he insisted, saying he doesn’t “find COVID to be scary” because he is healthy and “not in an at-risk age group.”“I don’t care if I have access to campus. I don’t need to be there. They could ban me. I just want to be left alone,” he said.Hollar’s stepfather, Keith Williams — who has been vaccinated — told the outlet he is “dumbfounded” at Rutgers’ stance.“I believe in science, I believe in vaccines, but I am highly confident that COVID-19 and variants do not travel through computer monitors by taking online classes,” Williams told NJ.com.“He chose to remove himself from an on-campus experience so he would not need to be vaccinated,” Williams said.“Now to be removed and shut down from his Rutgers email and online classes during the start of his senior year seems a bit crazy.”
University of California, Berkeley reopens with hundreds of new cases, ending quarantine measures - The University of California, Berkeley (UCB), one of the largest public universities in the United States, fully reopened for in-person instruction last week for the first time since going remote in March 2020. In a matter of days, the university, which is home to about 45,000 students, has become a major vector for the spread of COVID-19. As students began coming back to campus in August, known cases on the university’s COVID dashboard rose from 22 in the first week of August to 28 the next week, 48 the week after, 64 for the week of August 22, and 84 for the August 29 to September 4, the final week for which there is complete data. This surge in cases is the entirely predictable result of the decision to reopen for in-person learning with few if any protections. Liza, an undergraduate at the university, a self-described “high risk disabled, low income student,” posted a story about her experience which went viral, getting 28,000 “likes.” She wrote that the “university is forcing me to sacrifice my life to attend class.” The administration explained that because they must be enrolled in classes to receive health care, they cannot withdraw due to COVID-19 concerns. But because they are high-risk, attending class is extremely dangerous. In short, they face an impossible choice. Rosa Enriquez, a UC Berkeley student pursuing a master’s degree in social work, explained the situation, “The students are literally rubbing shoulders with each other; that’s how close they are. The school is saying that there are protections in place, but there are not. Some professors are bringing in their own masks for students because they’re not being provided. “UC Berkeley is only one of two UCs that does not require testing. And they shut down one of the two testing centers around August 20 so they could have a football game and football practice. That site that they shut down is the closest to Greek Row, to the sororities and fraternities.”
Amazon will pay college tuition for most of its 750,000 workers - Amazon announced Thursday that it will offer full college tuition payments for most its 750,000 hourly employees in the U.S beginning in January 2022. The company sad in a statement employees will be eligible for the tuition payments and other educational costs through its Career Choice program 90 days after employment. Amazon also plans to cover costs related to high school completion, GEDs, and ESL proficiency certifications.“This makes all 400,000 employees who joined the company since the start of the pandemic eligible to access Amazon-funded education opportunities,” the statement read. Tuition and fees will be paid upfront rather than reimbursed, and employees will have access to the funding throughout their terms of employment. Funding will be offered for hundreds of institutions across the country, the company said -- although no additional specifics were listed in the initial announcement. Amazon’s announcement follows competitors whose company’s have vied for labor by offering education benefits. Walmart announced in July that it would pay 100 percent of the tuition and book fees at select schools for Walmart and Sam’s Club employees. And in August, Target offered to pay tuition and related education costs for full and part-time workers who were pursuing qualifying degrees at more than 40 schools. Data shows that Americans collectively owe roughly $1.73 trillion in student loan debt, which averages around $39,000 per borrower.
Jill Biden heads back to classroom as a working first lady — Jill Biden is going back to her whiteboard. After months of teaching writing and English to community college students in boxes on a computer screen, the first lady resumes teaching in person Tuesday from a classroom at Northern Virginia Community College, where she has worked since 2009. She is the first first lady to leave the White House to log hours at a full-time job. “There are some things you just can’t replace, and I can’t wait to get back in the classroom,” she recently told Good Housekeeping magazine. The first lady has been anxious to see her students in person after more than a year of virtual teaching brought on by a pandemic that continues to challenge the Biden administration. A working first lady is a “big deal,” said Tammy Vigil, a Boston University communications professor who wrote a book about first ladies Michelle Obama and Melania Trump. The nation’s early first ladies did not work outside the White House. They supported their husbands, raised children and performed the role of hostess. Some first ladies acted as ambassadors for their husbands. Eleanor Roosevelt was especially active, traveling around the U.S. and reporting back to President Franklin D. Roosevelt, whose activities were limited by polio. She advocated for the poor, minorities and other disadvantaged people, and began writing a nationally syndicated newspaper column from the White House. More recent first ladies, like Laura Bush, who was an elementary school teacher and librarian, had stopped working outside the home after having children and were not employed when their husbands were elected. Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama were working mothers who decided against continuing their careers in the White House. Jill Biden, 70, is forging a new path for herself and her successors. The first lady has said she always wanted to be a career woman. She taught at the Virginia community college during the eight years that her husband was vice president and was not about to let the added responsibility of being first lady force her to give up a career she so closely identifies with. “Teaching isn't just what I do. It's who I am,” she says.
Fifteen educators and staff from Florida’s Miami-Dade School district die within ten days as COVID-19 deaths skyrocket across state - Fifteen educators and staff from Florida’s Miami-Dade County School district died from COVID-19 within 10 days between the last week of August and the first week of September, according to a tally made by NBC 6 South Florida. While it remains unknown when each employee contracted the virus, the deaths came after the district's start of the fall semester on August 23 and amidst a third wave of the pandemic that has claimed the lives of dozens of Florida educators and staffers who’ve been forced to resume in-person learning. One of the deceased Miami-Dade staffers who died was 55-year-old teaching veteran Abe Coleman from the Liberty City neighborhood of Miami. Coleman was a third-grade math instructor for 31 years and the director of a well-known youth mentoring project for impoverished boys. The mentoring program, 5000 Role Models of Excellence Project, was designed to interrupt the city’s school-to-prison pipeline and facilitate college entry. Alongside the fifteen deaths in South Florida, which has seen the highest rate of infections and deaths since the onset of the pandemic, countless similar reports are surfacing of schools witnessing scores of educators and staffers falling ill or dying because of the virus. A mother and daughter who worked as employees for the Miami-Dade district, Lilian Smith and Lakisha Williams, died just days apart from COVID-19 in early August before they were set to begin the semester later that month. Smith was a teacher at Dr. William A. Chapman Elementary School and was also a veteran educator with 45 years of experience in the district, while Williams had worked 17 years for the school system and was recently promoted as a cafeteria manager. Responsibility for these tragic deaths lies with the criminal policies of Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, who has led a crusade against mask mandates and other safety measures in schools, as well as President Joe Biden and the teachers unions who have repeatedly promoted the falsehood that it is possible to reopen schools safely and that educators' lives and well being are not in jeopardy by being placed in overcrowded classrooms with dozens of students where the virus has ample opportunity to spread.
About Medicare and the Costs of It - Everybody talks about Medicare, Medicare4All, Medicare Advantage. Few talk about costs or what Medicare consists of for those who qualify for it. How can someone be in favor of Medicare4All, if you do not understand what regular Medicare consists and what it costs.I am guessing most people believe it would be free. What if it isn’t and you paid what many people pay today for Medicare and its supplements?
- Traditional Medicare Part B: What Part B covers | Medicare Based on 3 main factors. Federal and state laws, Medicare national coverage decisions, and local coverage decisions made by companies in each state that process claims for Medicare deciding what is covered.
- 1. Part B Traditional: No matter if you choose traditional or Advantage, you will pay a Medicare Part B monthly premium which is deducted from your SS benefit.Part B premiums can vary by income. One big difference between traditional and Advantage is; Traditional Medicare is Single Payer and Advantage (MA) is not. MA is commercial insurance and each company pays the hospital or doctor’s bill. Traditional Medicare admin pays all the bills which reduces administrative costs.
- 2. Traditional, will have a monthly premium ($148.50/month – 2021) for Part Band a deductible of $203 in 2021. Also with satisfying the Part B deductible, there is a 20% CoPay of the approved amount. MediGap covers the 20%:Most doctor services (including most hospital doctor services) Outpatient therapy Durable Medical Equipment (Dme)
MediGap or Part G covers much of the 20% not covered in Traditional Part B or Part A.
- 3. Traditional Medicare has a base monthly premium of $148.50/month (2921) for Part B besides a 20% Co-Pay for approved billings. The cited base monthly premium is set using taxable income. I was citing the a premium for those making less than $88,000 for a single person or $176,000 for a couple. If your modified adjusted household gross income (MAGI) exceeds $88,000 (single) or $176,000 (couple), the Part B premium will be higher ($207.90). Approximately 5% all Traditional Medicare beneficiaries currently pay higher Part B premiums.
Traditional Medicare Part A: Traditional Medicare Part A will not completely cover OBSERVATIONAL hospital stays. You have to be admitted to the hospital for full coverage. Premiums are based upon quarters of years of WORK history.
- No premium if you have 40 quarters of work history pre-Social Security (Detail hereMedicare Part A costs [2021])
- A premium of $259 If you have worked 30 to 40 quarters.
- A premium of $471 If you have worked less than 30 quarters.
1. You will pay Federal Income Tax for Social Security above a certain income.
- Individuals with a combined income between $25,000 and $34,000 are taxed on 50% of their Social Security benefit. If your combined income exceeds $34,000, 85% of your Social Security income could be taxable
- Married couples face tax on 50% of their Social Security benefit if their combined income is between $32,000 and $44,000. Up to 85% of Social Security income is taxable for married couples with a combined income that exceeds $44,000.
- 2. Traditional Medicare is Single Payer: It pays all approved bills submitted by doctors, hospitals, etc. However, It does not establish hospital budgets, set doctor fees, or regulate pharmaceutical costs/pricing. Traditional Medicare sounds expensive, yes? It is expensive as it is not complete and uses Commercial Healthcare insurance to fill the gaps. Paying Part A and Part B deductibles if you have no MediGap insurance. The link will detail each. What About the Part A and B Deductibles? If you do not have MediGap (Part G), the deductibles and other costs become yours to pay.
Increasing Hospital Prices and Insurance Payments Lead to Higher Costs - Tipping the balance to single payer? I believe the Kliff and Tucker article titled Why Hospitals and Health Insurers Didn’t Want You to See Their Prices in the NYT Times on hospitals and insurance helps to tip the balance. It is revealing to see what different hospitals will charge for the same procedure and what various insurance companies will payout to cover the same procedures. I do not lay out all of the examples in the article; but, you will get the idea. The variance is the result of the free market commercial hospital healthcare and commercial healthcare insurance. This year 2021, all hospitals were “supposed” to start listing prices for various procedures, ER visits, Imaging, MRIs, Inoculations, meds, doctors, etc. This was to be a complete list of prices or fees for services at the hospital as negotiated with healthcare insurance companies. Many did list the prices charged and many are still resisting doing so.I am not a believer in looking at prices alone because you do not get a full picture of profit and costs. If everyone has equal prices, they may still be too high as the costs are low. One would think if prices between hospitals and insurance companies and between either separately, there would be little resistance by either to list them. Or would there be?Not so surprisingly, hospitals did resist having price lists, and the healthcare insurance companies joined them in the resistance. The argument being . . . “looking at a handful of services will not provide a full picture of their negotiations, etc. Furthermore, the published data files are not accounting for important aspects of their contracts such as bonuses for providing high-quality care.” Value-based care is another discussion point.Both lost in court several times and there are differences in insurance payouts for similar care at the same hospital dependent upon what a hospital will charge different insurance companies and policies. Something as simple as a flu shot at various hospitals can have a different price at each hospital.There is a pronounced difference between each healthcare insurance company on what they pay, what hospitals will bill healthcare insurance companies, and what individuals who like to pay cash pay.It becomes stickier with the implementation of ACOs as they have bought up the specialties, clinics, and other hospitals in the areas in which they are located . . . lessening competition in regions. Both Phillip Longman and Paul Hewitt took up the issue of the healthcare industry consolidation “After Obamacare” and the monopolistic results.
US football stadiums packed to the brim while COVID continues to surge - Labor Day weekend 2021 inaugurated the American college football season with stadiums from coast to coast packed to the brim with exhilarated fans, hardly any wearing a mask, in complete defiance of the COVID pandemic. The number in attendance at some of the country’s biggest stadiums was staggering. The University of Michigan hosted Western Michigan with close to 110,000 spectators standing shoulder to shoulder. The University of Texas defeated Louisiana on Saturday, cheered by more than 91,000 screaming and cheering fans. And the list could go on and on as more than 80 games were played during the long weekend that included Thursday. There is no question that tens of thousands of people who began this college football season cheering on their favorite team will be dead before it is over. That is the brutal arithmetic of the pandemic, which capitalist politicians, both Democratic and Republican, and their corporate masters are seeking to conceal. A week before these sporting celebrations, Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, acknowledged that the country could expect more than 100,000 new COVID-19 deaths by December. “What is going on now is both entirely predictable and entirely preventable,” he said. “We could turn this thing around, and we can do it efficiently and quickly if we could just get those [80 million] people vaccinated. It’s so important that people in this crisis put aside any ideological and political differences and just get vaccinated.” There are no “ideological or political differences” in college football and sports in general. As USA Today noted last year, “At stake is at least $4.1 billion in fiscal-year revenue for the athletics departments at just the 50-plus public schools in the Power Five conferences—an average of more than $78 million per school.” Ticket sales, merchandising of athletic apparel and television contracts can gross a top university over $100 million per season. According to Citadel Today, “The average game payouts [on TV contracts] run between $150,000 and $1.65 million depending on the teams playing and how ‘big’ the TV ratings are expected to be for that specific game.” Television ratings for these events have gone through the roof. As Newsweek noted, “The Saturday night game between top-5 teams Clemson and Georgia was the second-most seen season kickoff game—over any network—in the last 15 years, and it’s up 16 percent from a similar game in the 2019 season.” More than six million viewers tuned in to the game between number one-ranked Alabama and number 14-ranked Miami. Many sports announcers predict even more enormous crowds for home openers on the September 11 weekend which universities like Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Louisiana State, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Penn State will be hosting. That these events will become superspreading events is not a question. One has to take in the chilling scene of jam-packed spectators to recognize the catastrophe in store. Public health officials, such as Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, have warned of the dangers posed by the highly virulent Delta strain, even for people outdoors. As one senior contributor, Professor Bruce Y. Lee, poignantly asked in Forbes, “In fact, could the ‘return of college football’ be like pouring kerosene on a fire and adding fuel to the current COVID-19 coronavirus surge in the US?” To ask the question is to answer it.
As NFL Season Kicks Off, Fearmongering Fauci Frets Over Unvaxx'd Attending Games -The 2021 NFL season kicks off tonight with the Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The league expects a post-pandemic season, but many virus-related challenges linger amid the spread of the delta variant. Fans have been waiting a year to return to full stadiums to see their favorite teams duke it out with opponents, but Dr. Anthony Fauci doesn't believe that's a good thing.Entering the first week of the NFL season, about 93% of players and 99% of coaches and staffers are vaccinated, according to WaPo. The league has planned a 17th game season for each team with packed stadiums. "Our challenge right now ... is certainly that we are in a major surge," Allen Sills, the NFL's chief medical officer, said recently."It's no secret to any of you, nor is it a secret to any of us in medicine, with the impact that the delta variant is having."The continuing issue for the NFL is how to keep players healthy amid the spread of COVID variants. In August, the NFL attempted to make vaccines mandatory for all players, but the NFL Players Association refused to agree to that.Leaguewide, unvaccinated players tested positive for COVID-19 at a rate seven times higher than unvaccinated players. One mandate the NFL did manage to make mandatory is vaccines for coaches and support staff. But, when it comes to football fans, Fauci is not happy.The fearmonger-in-chief joined CNN's Jim Sciutto in a television interview on Tuesday and was asked a series of questions about the upcoming football season in crowded college and NFL stadiums around the country amid outbreaks of COVID. He told Sciutto that he doesn't think it's a brilliant idea to attend these sporting events. "I don't think it's smart," Fauci said. "Outdoors is always better than indoors, but even when you have such a congregate setting of people close together – first, you should be vaccinated. And when you do have congregate settings, particularly indoors, you should be wearing a mask." "We could be stuck in outbreak mode, and that's why I think what you're going to be seeing is…a lot more local mandates," he warned.
U.S. health care costs a lot, and not just in money -Austin Frakt - Health spending in the United States is highest in the world, driven in part by administrative complexity. To date, studies examining the administrative costs of American health care have primarily focused on clinicians and organizations—rarely on patients.A new study in Health Services Research finds administrative complexity in the U.S. health care system has consequences for access to care that are on par with those of financial barriers like copays and deductibles. In other words, we pay for health care in two ways: in money and in the hassle of dealing with a complex, confusing, and error-riddled system. Both are barriers to access. The study was led by Michael Anne Kyle, and I am a coauthor. Main Findings:
- Nearly three-quarters (73%) of people surveyed reported doing at least one health care-related administrative task in the past 12 months. Such administrative tasks include: appointment scheduling; obtaining information from an insurer or provider; obtaining prior authorizations; resolving insurance or provider billing issues; and resolving premium problems.
- Administrative tasks often impose barriers to care: Nearly one-quarter (24.4%) of survey respondents reported delaying or foregoing needed care due to administrative tasks.
- This estimate of administrative barriers to access to care is similar to those of financial barriers to access: a 2019 Kaiser Family Foundation survey, found that 26% of insured adults 18-64 said that they or a family member had postponed or put off needed care in the past 12 months due to cost.
- Administrative burden has consequential implications for equity. The study finds administrative burden falls disproportionately on people with high medical needs (disability) and that existing racial and socioeconomic inequities are associated with greater administrative burden.
An estimated 15.5 million adults under 65 went without medication due to high drugs costs - – An estimated 15.5 million adults under 65 and 2.3 million seniors were unable to pay for at least one doctor-prescribed medication in their household, according to a new study from West Health and Gallup analyzing the impact of high drug prices on consumers. While affordability of prescription drugs is an issue for all age groups, in a survey conducted in June, younger adults report not filling needed prescriptions at double the rate of the nation’s seniors in the prior three months (8% vs. 4%). When asked about skipping pills to cut costs, the divide between age groups held similarly (13% vs. 6%). The West Health/Gallup study on prescription drug prices is based on findings from four nationally representative polls conducted separately in January, March, April, and June. This comes as federal lawmakers craft a $3.5 trillion budget package that is expected to include legislation empowering Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices for its beneficiaries, as well as for the more than 150 million Americans enrolled in private plans. “Regardless of age or insurance type, Americans need help at the pharmacy counter and enabling Medicare to negotiate drug prices is just what the doctor ordered. It is an essential and long overdue policy change that would level the playing field between giant pharmaceutical companies and everyday Americans,” said Tim Lash, Chief Strategy Officer for West Health, a family of nonprofit, nonpartisan organizations dedicated to successful aging and lowering healthcare costs. Overall, 7% of survey respondents in a June survey said they couldn’t afford to fill at least one prescription in their household in the prior three months, unchanged from the 6% measured in March 2021. However, among respondents in lower-income households, the rate nearly doubled from 10% in March to 19% in June, a statistically significant increase. People with chronic conditions such as diabetes (12%), COPD (12%), and those who are immune compromised (15%) also couldn’t afford their prescriptions at almost twice the rate of Americans generally. Studies have shown that when people living with chronic disease do not maintain their medication regimen, it can lead to a worsening of disease, higher cost care, and premature death.
Blood Donor Study Estimates Over 80% of American Adults Now Have Coronavirus Antibodies -New research indicates that over 80% of American adults now have antibodies to the coronavirus, earned either through infection or vaccination. The study, based on data collected from blood donors, estimates that over 80% of Americans over the age of 16 had these antibodies as of May 2021. The authors do caution, however, that their results may not be generalizable to the entire U.S. population.The study, published Thursday in JAMA, is the work of researchers from various blood donation organizations as well as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s pandemic response group.Every month starting in July 2020, the team has been analyzing samples of donated blood collected from people over 16 in the U.S., looking for antibodies specific to covid-19. The samples were taken from all 50 states, from areas representing about 74% of the country’s population. After the vaccination campaign began in December 2020, the team added a second test to differentiate positive antibody results as either infection- or vaccine-induced (both vaccination and infection compel the body to produce antibodies to the virus’ spike protein, but infection also generates a response to other parts of the virus). By May 2021, they had collected just under 1.5 million blood specimens.Using these samples as a baseline, they estimated that 3.5% of Americans over age 16 had antibodies to the virus by July 2020, all through being infected. By May 2021, the percentage of Americans with these infection-induced antibodies was estimated to be 20.2%. And when combining both types of immunity, they estimated that 83.3% of adults had antibodies overall.
One in seven children with Covid still suffering three months later – study --Up to one in seven children who test positive for coronavirus could still have symptoms linked to the disease three months later, according to a study that suggests the prevalence of long Covid in young people is lower than initially feared.The analysis, led by University College London and Public Health England researchers, drew on survey responses from nearly 7,000 11- to 17-year-olds who underwent PCR tests between January and March. Of these, 3,065 tested positive and 3,739 tested negative.Many children in either group reported at least one symptom associated with coronavirus when surveyed at an average of 15 weeks after their test. Roughly 30% of those in the positive group reported having at least three or more symptoms after that time, and about 16% in the negative group.The difference between the two groups suggests the symptoms of about one in seven children in the positive group could have been linked to Covid. The most common symptoms included unusual tiredness and headaches.“The difference between the positive and negative groups is greater if we look at multiple symptoms, with those who had a positive test twice as likely to report three or more symptoms 15 weeks later,” When extrapolated to all those in the 11-17 age group who tested positive between September and March in England, the findings suggest that somewhere between 4,000 and 32,000 young people may have had three or more symptoms tied to Covid-19 infection after 15 weeks.Reassuringly, the researchers found no differences in mental health and wellbeing scores between children who tested positive or negative. However, four in 10 participants – regardless of whether they tested positive or negative – said they were worried, sad or unhappy, which may reflect the general anxiety around the pandemic.The prevalence figures are very much of the same order of magnitude as reported by the Office for National Statistics, which reflects estimates of self-reported long Covid prevalence of any duration. ONS figures indicate that about 31,000 people in the 11-17 age group have long Covid, said Stephenson. “That’s the kind of ballpark we’re in.”However, these estimates are “definitely lower than the worst-case scenarios that were being portrayed last December,” he said. Given the analysis was based on tests conducted up to March 2021, it is unclear how these findings may translate for the Delta variant, which only began dominating from May onwards. Data shows Delta is far more transmissible and capable of causing more serious disease than previous variants, particularly in adult unvaccinated populations.
The F.D.A. again warns parents not to get children under 12 vaccinated yet. --The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is “working around the clock” to make Covid vaccines available to young children, it saidin a statement on Friday. In the meantime, however, the agency urged parents not to seek out the shots for children who are under 12, and therefore not yet eligible for vaccination.The agency said that it hoped vaccines would be available for young children “in the coming months,” but that it could not offer a more specific timeline. However, once it has applications from the vaccine manufacturers in hand, it will “be prepared to complete its review as quickly as possible, likely in a matter of weeks rather than months,” Dr. Janet Woodcock, the acting F.D.A. commissioner, and Dr. Peter Marks, of the agency’s Center for Biologics Research and Evaluation, said in the statement.The available vaccines, none of which have been cleared for children under 12, may not be a safe or effective dose for young children, the agency noted. Pediatric clinical trials, which will help determine the right vaccine dose for children under 12, are still underway.“Children are not small adults — and issues that may be addressed in pediatric vaccine trials can include whether there is a need for different doses or different strength formulations of vaccines already used for adults,” Dr. Woodcock and Dr. Marks.Health officials have previously expressed concern that full approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for people 16 and up might prompt parents to seek, or doctors to give, the shots off-label to young children, specifically warning against the move. Children younger than 12 make up a sizable unvaccinated population in the United States.Some vaccine manufacturers are still enrolling children in their trials and others are still giving the shots and monitoring children for potential side effects, the F.D.A. noted in its statement. The trials will follow participants for at least two months to ensure that the researchers are able to detect any adverse events. Vaccine manufacturers then have to analyze the data and then formally apply for authorization or approval from the F.D.A.Then, the agency “will carefully, thoroughly and independently examine the data to evaluate benefits and risks,” Dr. Woodcock and Dr. Marks said.
High incarceration rates fuel COVID-19 spread --Extremely high rates of incarceration in the U.S. undercut national public health and safety. The overcrowded, tight quarters in jails fuel constant risks of outbreaks. Add to that the daily movement of 420,000 guards in and out of the facilities and 30,000 newly released people who are likely to inadvertently carry the virus back to communities. A new study from Northwestern Medicine, Toulouse School of Economics and the French National Centre for Scientific Research found the best way to address this public safety threat is through decarceration (i.e., reducing the number of people detained in jails). “If we can immediately stop jailing people for minor alleged offenses and begin building a national decarceration program to end mass incarceration, these changes will protect us from COVID-19 now and will also benefit long-term U.S. public health and pandemic preparedness,” said first author Dr. Eric Reinhart, an anthropologist of public health and resident physician in the department of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. The study evaluated the association of jail decarceration and government anti-contagion policies with reductions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. It will be published Sept. 2 in the journal JAMA Network Open. It is the first study to link mass incarceration systems to pandemic vulnerability and international biosecurity (i.e., systems for protecting against disease or harmful biological agents). In a pandemic, amplification of COVID-19 spread by one country spills over into other nations such that mass incarceration in the U.S. is a threat not only to Americans but also to global public health at large. Although many prior studies have documented that high incarceration rates are associated with harm to communitywide health, this study of 1,605 U.S. counties is the first to show that decarceration is associated with community-wide public health benefits.
Early stage testing begins for combined Novavax flu/COVID-19 vaccine -Novavax announced Wednesday it is in the early stages of testing a combined flu and COVID-19 vaccine.The statement by the vaccine developer says it is combing the flu shot NanoFlu with its COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373.There will be 640 healthy adults between the ages of 50 to 70 participating in the trial that will be conducted at 12 study sites in Australia. “The trial will evaluate the safety, tolerability and immune response to NanoFlu formulated together with NVX-CoV2373 and Matrix-M adjuvant,” the company said.The participants either had to previously test positive for the coronavirus or be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus for at least eight weeks. The participants will receive two doses, one on the first day of the trial and one 56 days later. "This study is the first-of-its-kind to evaluate the vaccine's potential to induce a robust immune response, augmented by our Matrix-M adjuvant, against two life-threatening diseases simultaneously," said Gregory M. Glenn, president of research and development for Novavax."The combination of these two vaccines, which have individually delivered outstanding results with favorable safety and tolerability profiles, may lead to greater efficiencies for the healthcare system and achieve high levels of protection against COVID-19 and influenza with a single regimen,” Glenn added. Results from the study are expected in the first half of 2022.
The CDC is finally listening to women about vaccines - There is one potential side effect of Covid-19 vaccines that has been reported consistently, and just as consistently ignored: changes to the menstrual cycles.Women noticed a broad range of changes in their periods. In some cases, they were earlier, heavier, and more painful, while in others they were lighter and delayed. Others still experienced a mix of these changes, while a large percentage of women observed no changes, or didn’t report them. The reported changes typically affect one or just a couple of cycles. These kinds of reports have been coming up since the beginning of the vaccine rollout, prompting health authorities in the US and abroad to address them—typically to reassure women the vaccines present no risks for fertility, or to highlight the absence of a clear connection between the vaccine and any changes in periods.These changes are still left out of the possible side effect warning, but the reports have finally pushed the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to at least look into the issue, so it can confirm the potential side effect.According to the US Food and Drug Administration as well as Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson—the three authorized vaccine manufacturers in the US—women’s consistent reports of period irregularities following the vaccine don’t represent evidence that those irregularities exist.This is at least in part due to the nature of periods, which can be irregular for many reasons, and the little actual understanding we still have about the ways specific factors affect them. In order to identify whether the vaccine alters periods, and how, researchers would need to track them before and after the vaccine is administered, and be able to control for all the other factors—such as stress, nutrition, medications, immunological status—that might change it.Or, one could listen to the many thousands of women who know their periods and say the vaccine has, in some ways, affected it. This is what researchers Kate Clancy of the University of Illinois and Katharine Lee of Washington University are doing. The two are documenting reports of period changes in a study, and have so far received 140,000 reports.The researchers told NPR they received accounts from trans men on gender-affirming therapy hormones and women in menopause who experienced period-like bleeding after the vaccine, despite not having had a period in a long time—sometimes years.
The Economist: “Excess deaths” during pandemic exceeds 15 million - Fifteen million more people have died during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to historical norms, according to a recent report by the Economist. This figure is more than three times the reported COVID-19 deaths, which stands at 4.6 million people. “Many people who die while infected with SARS-CoV-2 are never tested for it, and do not enter the official totals,” the editors write. “Conversely, some people whose deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 had other ailments that might have ended their lives on a similar timeframe anyway. And what about people who died of preventable causes during the pandemic because hospitals full of COVID-19 patients could not treat them? If such cases count, they must be offset by deaths that did not occur but would have in normal times, such as those caused by flu or air pollution. It has been the policy of herd immunity that has culled such a massive number of people under the false auspices of “the cure can’t be worse than the disease.” In fact, as the Economist report indicates, the disease has taken a horrific toll on the international working class, orphaning and impoverishing untold millions.As the Economist report states, the wide range in figures stems from the complex nature of ascertaining data from national and subnational levels. Delays in reporting deaths, specifically confirming COVID-19 and COVID-related deaths and attributing the cause of death, make the statistics imprecise but offer an appropriate ball-park figure. Among the globe’s 156 countries with one million or more people, the Economist only managed to obtain data on total mortality from 84. Among these, some have only reported these figures once to their national registries.As the table above indicates, the estimate of excess deaths in regions like Asia and Africa are 700 to 800 percent over official COVID-19 deaths. This stems from the implementation of herd immunity policies while lacking the resources to care for the infected. Additionally, lack of reliable reporting of COVID-19 cases and delays or the omission of tracking of those that have died has led to this stark disparity in figures.
With time and without masks, COVID-19 vaccines wane in protection - In a letter to The New England Journal of Medicine, publishing online September 1, 2021, an interdisciplinary team of physicians and public health experts at University of California San Diego measured the effectiveness of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines among health workers at UC San Diego Health, most notably during the emergence of the highly transmissible delta virus variant and coincident with the end of the state’s mask mandate, allowing fully vaccinated persons to forgo face coverings in most places. The letter’s authors report that the effectiveness of both the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines significantly waned over time. Both vaccines were granted emergency use authorization by the Food and Drug Administration in December 2020, with vaccinations of the UC San Diego Health work force beginning the same month for health care workers with direct, patient-facing duties. In the letter, the authors note that from March through June 2021 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection was estimated to exceed 90 percent; by July, however, it had fallen to approximately 65 percent. “The decline in effectiveness is not entirely surprising,” said co-senior author Francesca Torriani, MD, professor of clinical medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health in the UC San Diego School of Medicine and program director of Infection Prevention and Clinical Epidemiology at UC San Diego Health. “Clinical trial data suggested decreased effectiveness would occur several months after full vaccination, but our findings indicate that confronted by the delta variant, vaccine effectiveness for mildly symptomatic disease was considerably lower and waned six to eight months after completing vaccination.”
Staying power: does Moderna’s vaccine have edge on Pfizer? Financial Times -- Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine may offer longer-lasting protection than Pfizer’s, new research suggests, as governments and scientists debate who needs booster shots and when. Recent studies show the Moderna jab prompts a stronger immune response than the rival mRNA vaccine from BioNTech/Pfizer, and that its effects wane more slowly. Paul Burton, Moderna’s chief medical officer, said a stream of “extremely reassuring” studies in the past few weeks showed Moderna’s shot had “long-lived” efficacy, stood up to the Delta variant and could even help people with compromised immune systems. Research published this week in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that Belgian healthcare workers given the Moderna jab had more than double the number of antibodies two months after their second dose than those receiving Pfizer’s.Higher antibody levels soon after vaccination should lead to longer-term protection and greater resistance to Covid variants, according to Deborah Steensels, one of the study’s authors. While the scientists were only able to count all antibodies, not the gold standard neutralising antibodies, she said the correlation was strong enough to bolster the theory. “The efficacy of protecting people from severe disease and mortality is high for all vaccines and that’s the main goal of vaccines,” she said. “But our hypothesis is that for the duration of protection against mild disease to last longer, you need higher antibody titres after vaccination.” Another study this week from the University of Virginia found recipients of the Moderna jab had more antibodies than those given Pfizer’s, with the difference more marked in older people. The findings echo those of a draft paper last month by University of Toronto researchers assessing immune responses among long-term care facility residents.Some scientists suggest the Moderna jab could last longer because its dose of mRNA — the genetic code that teaches the immune system how to recognise the coronavirus’s spike protein — is three times higher than Pfizer’s. Another factor may be the time between doses, at a recommended four weeks for Moderna but three weeks for Pfizer.
Unvaccinated Americans are 11 times more likely to die of Covid, the C.D.C. reports. A day after President Biden issued broad vaccine mandates aimed at propelling American workers to get vaccinated against the coronavirus, federal health officials released a handful of studies highlighting how effective the shots are at preventing infections, hospitalizations and deaths — even while the highly contagiousDelta variant has been dominant.Three studies that drew data from different U.S. regions evaluated the protective power of the vaccines. One looked at more than 600,000 virus cases in 13 states, representing about one quarter of the U.S. population, between April and July, and concluded that individuals who were not fully vaccinated were far more susceptible to infection and death from the virus.They were 4.5 times more likely than vaccinated individuals to become infected, 10 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 11 times more likely to die from the coronavirus, the study found.Vaccine protection against hospitalization and death remained strong even when the Delta variant was the dominant form of infection. But the vaccines’ effectiveness in preventing infection dropped from 91 percent to 78 percent, the study found.The studies underscore a series of similar findings in recent weeks.“As we have shown, study after study, vaccination works,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at a White House Covid briefing on Friday.As more and more Americans become vaccinated, experts always expected that immunized people would represent a greater percentage of hospitalized patients. “What I want to reiterate here is it’s still well over 90 percent of people who are in the hospital who are unvaccinated,” Dr. Walensky said.“We still have more than 10 times the number of people in the hospital who are unvaccinated, compared to vaccinated,” she added.
Prior exposure to common cold coronaviruses enhances immune response to SARS-CoV-2 - For the current study, the researchers recruited individuals with no prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2, testing them at regular intervals to establish whether they had contracted the infection. Out of a total of nearly 800 participants who were recruited from mid-2020 onwards, 17 persons tested positive. The researchers studied the affected individuals’ immune systems in detail. Their analyses showed that the immune response against SARS-CoV-2 also included the mobilization of T helper cells which had been generated in response to endemic common cold viruses. The researchers also showed that the quality of the immune response against SARS-CoV-2 was linked to the quantity of cross-reactive cells which had been present in the body prior to infection. These cells were particularly effective at recognizing a certain area of the spike protein. In both the endemic viruses and the new coronavirus, this site was characterized by sequence similarities which were particularly well ‘preserved’. “During infections with the more harmless coronaviruses, the immune system builds up a kind of protective ‘universal coronavirus’ memory,” explains the study’s corresponding author, Dr. Claudia Giesecke-Thiel, Head of the Flow Cytometry Service Group at the MPIMG. “Once exposed to SARS-CoV-2, these memory cells are reactivated and kick-start the response against the new pathogen. This could help accelerate the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and limit viral propagation during the early stages of the infection and is therefore likely to have a positive effect on the course of the disease.” Taking a more cautionary tone, the researcher adds: “This does not mean that prior exposure to common cold viruses will definitely protect an individual against SARS-CoV-2, nor does it change the course of the pandemic as of now because these underlying mechanisms have been operating all along. It in no way diminishes the importance of getting vaccinated. Our study provides one of several explanations for an observation made since the beginning of the pandemic, namely that the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection can vary greatly between individuals.” The researchers’ findings furthermore confirmed that the immunity-enhancing effects of cross-reactive T cells also occur following vaccination with the BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Just like natural infection, the vaccine prompts the body to produce the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (including the well-preserved section of it) and present it to the immune system. An analysis of the immune responses of 31 healthy individuals before and after vaccination revealed that, while the activation of normal T helper cells took place gradually over the course of two weeks, the activation of cross-reactive T helper cells was extremely rapid, taking place within one week of vaccination. Naturally, this also had a positive effect on the generation of antibodies. Even after the first dose of the vaccine, the body was able to produce antibodies against the preserved section of the spike protein at a rate normally only seen after booster vaccinations. “Even following vaccination, the body is able to utilize at least some of its immunological memory – provided it has had previous exposure to endemic coronaviruses,” says co-corresponding author Prof. Dr. Andreas Thiel, a Charité researcher based at both the Si-M and the BCRT. He adds: “This might explain the surprisingly rapid and extremely strong protective effect we see after the initial dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, at least in younger individuals.”
As US Prepares to Ban Ivermectin for Covid-19, More Countries in Asia Begin Using It - The information war takes a dark turn as the corporate media transitions from misinformation and obfuscation to outright lies and fabrication.The campaign against ivermectin is intensifying in the US. Until recently the health authorities appeared to be quite content merely to ridicule those who take or prescribe the drug in order to treat or prevent Covid-19. A couple of weeks ago, the FDA released a now-infamous advertorialon twitter with the heading “You are not a horse. You are not a cow. Seriously, y’all. Stop it.” The subheading: “Using the drug Ivermectin to treat Covid-19 can be dangerous and even lethal. The FDA has not approved the drug for that purpose.”It’s a subtle message that has been faithfully echoed by the corporate media: ivermectin, a tried-and-tested drug that has won its discoverers a Nobel Prize for the impact it has had on humanhealth over the last 35 years, should only be given to animals. But now the information war is taking a darker turn, as the media transitions from misinformation and obfuscation to outright lies and fabrication.At the end of last week, a string of American and British outlets, including The Daily Mail, Rolling Stone, Huffington Post, The Independent, Newsweek, The Guardian, and Yahoo News, ran a story about how people who had “overdosed” on the “horse dewormer” were clogging up so many beds in a hospital in Sequoyah, rural Oklahoma, that doctors were having to turn away gunshot victims. The story, sourced to local Oklahoma outlet KFOR, turned out to be completely false. On Sunday, the hospital in question released a statement that the doctor behind the allegations had not worked in its ER for two months. More to the point, the hospital “had not treated any patients due to complications relating to taking ivermectin.” There were no overdoses. And it had turned no patients away. In other words, everything about the story was false. A total fabrication. Yet many of the mainstream outlets that covered the story did not retract their article. Rolling Stone simply“updated” its piece with the new information. The Guardian inserted a note at the bottom of its article informing readers that Sequoyah NHS had released a statement asserting that the doctor behind the allegations that formed the entire basis of the story had not worked in its ER for two months. In other words, you have to read all the way to the end of the article to find out that its entire content is total bullshit. To make matters worse, The Guardian did not even mention the hospital’s categorical denials that it had treated patients for IVM overdose or that it had turned ER patients away. If the goal of all this disinformation is to put people off wanting to get hold of ivermectin, it doesn’t seem to be working, which is hardly surprising given the already desperately low levels of public trust in both US health authorities and corporate media. There are certain parallels with the furore whipped up over hydroxychloroquine last year. But the case is weaker this time, primarily because IVM is one of the safest medicines on the planet and was widely recognised as such until this pandemic. One thing that is abundantly clear is that mocking people’s intelligence and comparing them to horses or dogs for wanting to take a certain medicine isn’t a terribly effective way of getting them to change their behaviour. All they appear to have achieved is to invoke the “Streisand effect.” More people are buying ivermectin (for human use) than ever before. In the US as a whole, prescriptions for the medicine have surged 24-fold since the pandemic began, from 3,600 a week to almost 90,000. Between mid-July and mid-August alone, they rose 400%.In response, authorities are escalating their crack down. On September 1, the American Medical Association (AMA), American Pharmacists Association (APhA), and American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP) jointly called for an outright ban on the dispensing of ivermectin to prevent or treat COVID-19 outside of a clinical trial.
Ivermectin Experience In India -- September 7, 2021 - Uttar Pradesh, India: most populous political subdivision in the world. Population, 200 million. Covid-19 related deaths, as of September 1, 2021: 22,825. 22,825 / 200 million = 0.00014 = 0.014% or rounding, 0.00%. From this linked article:The state Health Department introduced Ivermectin as prophylaxis for close contacts of Covid patients, health workers as well as for the treatment of the patients themselves through a government order on August 6, 2020. (Wikimedia Commons) A year after the country’s first Covid-19 cluster, with 5 cases, was reported in Agra district, the Uttar Pradesh government has claimed that it was the first state to have introduced a large-scale “prophylactic and therapeutic” use of Ivermectin and added that the drug helped the state to maintain a lower fatality and positivity rate as compared to other states.Citing the results from Agra in the month of May and June last year, following which the use of Ivermectin, a medicine to treat parasitic ailments, along with Doxycycline was introduced as a protocol across the state for both prophylactic as well as treatment purposes, the state Health Department said it would conduct a controlled study once the second wave of the pandemic subsides.Why is India, and not the US, conducting a nationwide controlled study? US death rate:
- population: 330 million
- Covid-19 related deaths: 666,627
- death rate: 0.002 = 0.2%
0.2 / 0.01 = the US Covid-19-related death rate is 20 times that of a much more densely populated state in India. And we won't even discuss the state of health care in either country.A four-tablet snack pack distributed to all physicians to dispense to close contacts of Covid-19 in India. A 3-mg table, once a day for four days = 12 mg total, if I read the article correctly. Again, why does the US not do a controlled study:
Pre-flight COVID testing drastically reduces risk of infection: study -Air travelers are highly unlikely to contract COVID-19 if their flight requires passengers to test negative, according to a new studyconducted by Delta Air Lines, Mayo Clinic and the Georgia Department of Health.The peer-reviewed study found that out of nearly 10,000 passengers that tested negative 72 hours before flying between the U.S. and Italy, only five tested positive for COVID-19. That 0.05 percent rate of infection on international flights from December 2020 to May 2021 is far lower than the average community transmission rate of 1.1 percent over the same period. The data demonstrates that international travel can be reopened safely with proper testing, masking and cleaning protocols, said Dr. Henry Ting, Delta’s chief health officer. Many countries have thus far crafted their international travel rules around simulation models.“This is the first real study. This is not a model, this is not mathematics or physics. These are real passengers who flew from the U.S. to Italy during the height of the third COVID-19 surge,” Ting said. “There’s so many other activities you could do like going to the grocery store, church or a restaurant where your risk of infection is way higher than flying,” he added. The study’s release comes as the travel industry pushes the Biden administration to lift a ban on nonessential travel from Europe instituted in the early days of the pandemic. White House officials have said that they are formulating a plan to reopen international travel but have not yet implemented it. Ting said that he shared the data with the White House and the National Security Council and received a “very receptive” response.
Why Isn't Anyone Talking About Natural Immunity? -Daisy wrote an article recently on the “othering” of the unvaccinated. She went into detail regarding how individuals are blaming the unvaccinated for absolutely everything going wrong these days. I share her concern. There is a long, detailed history of the “othering” of a population leading to all sorts of horrors. However, it is wrong at a more mundane level, as well. Public discourse surrounding the pandemic seems to focus solely on vaccination as a means of achieving herd immunity. Those who have recovered from the disease and have natural immunity, are being completely ignored. The most frustrating thing to me, the past year and a half, has been the constantly changing narrative and the dismissal of formerly well-understood scientific truths. Natural immunity is one of those concepts from freshman biology that many seem to completely disregard these days. I think this is a natural effect of the “cult of expertise” we have in the United States. Seemingly, anyone with specific credentials is automatically deferred to, regardless of how competent they are… or more insidiously, where their financial interests lie.If more of us were willing to think critically about the “science” in the news these days, we could be more confident in managing our health. A healthy, confident population willing to argue and drag its feet on accepting medical treatments with which they aren’t comfortable is hard to push around.A population willing to do anything to just “get back to normal” is not.As early as April of 2020, Daisy wrote that we were never getting “back to normal.” And I agree.But we can move forward a little more well-informed.I’ve gotten into some discussions with medical professionals about whether people who have recovered from the disease need to be vaccinated. These conversations would have been seen as utterly ridiculous three years ago. However, now, it seems, we all need to relearn freshman biology. So I’d like to review the concept of natural immunity to help organize my thoughts and maybe help others that feel like their heads are in a whirl.Our innate defenses are things like our skin and mucus. We’re born with these, and they make it difficult for various pathogens such as bacteria, viruses, and multicellular parasites to enter our bodies. Our bodies also have an immune system that recognizes and attacks any infectious agents that make it past our innate defenses. Our immune system is really sophisticated, and in healthy individuals, it works pretty well. Suppose some kind of pathogen makes it past the body’s innate defenses and begins infecting cells within the host. In that case, the host’s body will, in turn, start producing antibodies that will specifically attack the invading pathogen. The host body will continue producing antibodies until either the host dies or the invading cells die, and the patient’s body can return to normal.The best part is, even after the active infection is over, the host’s body will retain the memory of the antibodies it produced during the infection. So if the formerly infected person reencounters the pathogen, the body will immediately have the antibodies to kill the pathogen. They rarely get sick again, and if they do, it’s generally very mild.
More Americans infected with coronavirus last year than previously estimated: research -More Americans were infected with coronavirus at the end of 2020 than was previously estimated, according to new research.According to a Nature preprint study by researchers at Columbia University, the true number of COVID-19 infections in the U.S. at the end of 2020 was likely more than 100 million, as opposed to the more than 20 million cases data from Johns Hopkins University had determined were confirmed at the time.National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins wrote about the Nature report in a blog post on Tuesday. He said the revised number, which is nearly a third of the U.S.’s population of 328 million, illustrates “just how rapidly this novel coronavirus spread through the country last year.”The researchers, when looking at data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) regarding people who tested positive for antibodies, discovered that only around 11 percent of all COVID-19 cases confirmed in March were bolstered by a positive test result. By the end of the year, however, the ascertainment rate — which refers to the number of infections that were known versus unknown — rose to an average of roughly 25 percent.The researchers also discovered that on Dec. 21, 2020, an estimated 0.77 percent of the U.S. population had a contagious COVID-19 infection. In some areas, however — such as Los Angeles — that number was much higher. The COVID-19 fatality rate also decreased as time progressed, according to the researchers, dropping from 0.77 percent in April 2020 to 0.31 percent in December.
Hospitals in Crisis in Mississippi, the Least Vaccinated US State -- As patients stream into Mississippi hospitals one after another, doctors and nurses have become all too accustomed to the rampant denial and misinformation about COVID-19 in the nation's least vaccinated state. People in denial about the severity of their own illness or the virus itself; visitors frequently trying to enter hospitals without masks. The painful look of recognition on patients' faces when they realize they made a mistake not getting vaccinated. The constant misinformation about the coronavirus that they discuss with medical staff. "There's no point in being judgmental in that situation. There's no point in telling them, 'You should have gotten the vaccine, or you wouldn't be here,'" said Dr. Risa Moriarity, executive vice chair of the University of Mississippi Medical Center's emergency department. "We don't do that. We try not to preach and lecture them. Some of them are so sick they can barely even speak to us." Mississippi's low vaccinated rate, with about 38% of the state's 3 million people fully inoculated against COVID-19, is driving a surge in cases and hospitalizations that is overwhelming medical workers. The workers are angry and exhausted over both the workload and refusal by residents to embrace the vaccine. Physicians at the University of Mississippi Medical Center, the only level one trauma center in Mississippi, are caring for the sickest patients in the state. The emergency room and intensive care unit are beyond capacity, almost all with COVID patients. Moriarity said it's like a logjam with beds in hallways, patients being treated in triage rooms. Paramedics are delayed in responding to new calls because they have to wait with patients who need care. In one hospital in Mississippi, four pregnant women died last week, said state health officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs. Three of the cases required emergency C-sections and babies were born severely premature. "This is the reality that we're looking at and, again, none of these individuals were vaccinated," Dobbs said. Moriarity said it's hard to put into words the fatigue she and her colleagues feel. Going to work each day has become taxing and heartbreaking, she said. "Most of us still have enough emotional reserve to be compassionate, but you leave work at the end of the day just exhausted by the effort it takes to drag that compassion up for people who are not taking care of themselves and the people around them," she said.
COVID-19 cases were 4 times higher this Labor Day weekend than last year due to the Delta variant - The US recorded almost four times as many new COVID-19 cases in the run up to L abor Day weekend this year than in the same period in 2020.On September 5, 2020, the weekly average number of new daily COVID-19 cases was 41,488, according to Oxford University's Our World in Data. Exactly a year later, on Sunday, the number was 163,728, which is 294% higher.The number of COVID-19 tests was roughly the same, the data showed.The average number of daily deaths per million was almost twice as high this year, the data showed.Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told local Houston news station Khouon Monday that the US was "having this incredible surge right now of COVID-19, although it's unevenly distributed." "The South is on fire in terms of this raging epidemic," he said, per Khou. The highly infectious Delta variant continues to spread across the country. To stop Delta spreading from COVID-19 hotspots, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said Wednesday that unvaccinated Americans shouldn't travel for Labor Day weekend.Fully vaccinated people should keep their masks on to try to stop further spread of the Delta variant, it said. CBS reported Monday that more than 3.5 million Americans traveled on Friday and Saturday alone — more than twice as many as last year, but less than before the pandemic.It's too early to tell if holiday weekend travel will cause further COVID-19 spikes.Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization's Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law, told CNBC on Friday that it was "highly surprising" that cases and deaths were higher this year than last year, given that "effective" vaccines were now available.
Oregon and Idaho are running out of I.C.U. beds as Covid cases hit records. -Oregon and Idaho have joined the list of U.S. states that are running out of I.C.U. beds as both confront a significant rise in new coronavirus infections.Patrick Allen, the director of the Oregon Health Authority, said in an interview on Saturday that only 50 of the state’s 638 I.C.U. beds were still available. Gov. Brad Little of Idaho, a Republican, said in a statement last week that just four of the state’s nearly 400 beds were still open. (table) The national Delta-driven surge has filled hospitals in many states. Only a handful have more than 30 percent of their overall I.C.U. beds still available, according to data from the Department of Health and Human Services, and many have less.
Covid deaths surge across a weary America as a once-hopeful summer ends. -A summer that began with plunging caseloads in the United States and real hope that the worst of Covid-19 had passed is ending with soaring death counts, full hospitals and a bitter realization that the coronavirus is going to remain a fact of American life for the foreseeable future.Vaccination rates are ticking upward, and reports of new infections are starting to fall in some hard-hit Southern states. But Labor Day weekend bears little resemblance to Memorial Day, when the country was averaging fewer than 25,000 cases daily, or to the Fourth of July, when President Biden spoke about nearing independence from the virus.Instead, with more than 161,000 new cases a day for the last week, as of Sunday, and about 100,000 Covid patients hospitalized nationwide, this holiday feels more like a flashback to 2020. As of Sunday night, the total of known virus cases in the United States surpassed 40 million, according to a New York Times database.In Kansas, many state employees were sent home to work remotely again. In Arizona, where school mask mandates are banned, thousands of students and teachers have had to go into quarantine. In Hawaii, the governor has issued a plea to tourists:Don’t visit.“The irony is that things got so good in May and most of June that all of us, including me, were talking about the end game,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, Berkeley. “We started to enjoy life again. Within a very few weeks, it all came crashing down.”
COVAX estimates global COVID-19 vaccine deliveries will fall 30 percent below goal - The COVAX program estimates that its global COVID-19 vaccine deliveries will fall almost 30 percent below its goal of sending out 2 billion doses by the end of the year. The international organizations attributed the predicted shortfall to several factors, including restrictions on exports from the Serum Institute of India — a key supplier for vaccines — and problems increasing manufacturing at vaccine facilities, particularly those that supply Johnson & Johnson and the AstraZeneca vaccines. Lags in regulatory approval for other vaccines created by U.S. company Novavax and Chinese firm Clover have also contributed to the lack of expected doses. Under the most likely forecast, COVAX would reach 2 billion doses available for delivery between January and February. The program is requesting that donors and manufacturers provide transparent supply schedules and allow other countries without enough doses to go ahead in the “queue” before nations that have an adequate domestic supply. The shortage of expected doses comes as the WHO has increased its calls on rich countries to stop giving their residents booster doses as other countries haven’t had enough to distribute. The World Health Organization (WHO), the GAVI Vaccine Alliance, UNICEF and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness predicted that by the end of 2021, about 1.4 billion doses would be available for the program designed to make shots more accessible to lower-income nations.This year’s fourth quarter is expected to see an uptick in vaccine deliveries, but it will not be enough to fulfill the original target for the year, the international organizations forecast. The current “most likely scenario” is that another 1.1 billion doses will be provided between September and the end of the year.
Africa’s C.D.C. director urges wealthy nations to forego Covid vaccine boosters and donate them instead. --The decision by some rich nations to offer booster shots will hinder coronavirus vaccine access for low-income countries, the director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday, arguing there is no conclusive evidence healthy people who are not immunocompromised need an extra shot.In wealthy countries — including Germany, France, Israel and the United States — there has been growing momentum to offer additional doses to certain vulnerable populations, including older citizens, and to the general public.“The problem we have with the third doses is that we have not seen enough science behind them,” the director, Dr. John Nkengasong, said in an online news conference with journalists on Thursday. “It is really still confusing to me as to why we are moving toward a vast recommendation for a booster dose.”By offering booster shots, he added, “we will surely be gambling.”The World Health Organization has warned that booster shots could divert vaccine supplies from countries with largely unvaccinated populations. On Wednesday, th e agency asked wealthy countries to hold off on administering booster shots for healthy patients until at least the end of the year as a way of enabling every country to vaccinate at least 40 percent of their populations.
NSW records 1,281 COVID-19 infections, five deaths as Premier reveals latest pandemic modelling - NSW has released its pandemic modelling which anticipates a peak of COVID-19 cases next week and a surge in hospitalisation numbers in mid-October. The state today recorded 1,281 new locally acquired infections and five COVID-19 deaths. NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the latest modelling showed the state is likely to reach a peak in COVID-19 cases "in the next week or so". Within the local government areas (LGAs) of concern, NSW Health is expecting it will record cases of 1,100 to 2,000 a day until mid-September. "If too many of us do the wrong thing, there are too many super spreading events, we could see those numbers [change]," Ms Berejiklian said. It is estimated that between 2,200 to 3,900 people will require hospitalisation — this figure includes all hospitalisations, not just COVID-19 admissions. The estimated peak for intensive care unit (ICU) for COVID-19 patients will be about 560. Ms Berejiklian said the likely peak in intensive care beds required will be about early-mid October. "That is what the best modelling tells us at this stage but I do want to qualify that by saying that a number of variables are associated with that modelling," she said. The Premier said some planned freedoms for the state would "absolutely" still go ahead once NSW reached its 70 per cent double dose milestone, even if cases haven't yet peaked..
Summer ends with 4,000 COVID-19 deaths in Spain as schools reopen - This summer, there have been 4,000 COVID-19 deaths in Spain, with 2,800 in August alone. These horrific figures are the result of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE)–Podemos government’s ending of all social distancing before the summer. Much of the recent wave has been triggered by the reopening of bars and nightclubs in Spain. Youth were encouraged to return to these venues under the false pretext that they are safe and that there is a low chance of a new surge of the virus. Minimal social distancing measures—masking, curfews, limiting the number of people who could meet, and the banning of potential super-spreader events like concerts or music festivals—were junked to reopen the economy, especially for tourism. The PSOE–Podemos government let the virus spread massively: this summer ended with more than 1.1 million infections in Spain. However, it covered its policy with claims that vaccination, now reaching 70 percent of the population, will by itself halt infections. In fact, despite this vaccination rates, there are still more than 130 deaths and nearly 10,000 infections each day. Another 600 to 700 deaths are expected this week. Spain’s 14-day incidence rate of COVID-19 stands at 210 per 100,000 inhabitants, well over the 150 per 100,000 Spanish authorities call “high risk.” All Spain’s major urban areas are over 150; provinces like A Coruña, Álava, Badajoz, Bizkaia, Cáceres, Toledo and Seville are over 250. These numbers will only mount as students return to schools, where incidence rates have skyrocketed. Among adolescents aged 12 to 19, the incidence is 400 per 100,000 inhabitants. In this age group, only about one-third (32.2 percent) are fully vaccinated. On Monday, schools in Madrid, Cantabria and Melilla started. In coming weeks, more regions will follow. In total, 8.2 million children will return to school to face a virus that has claimed more than 1.1 million lives across Europe since last year. Last Wednesday, Education Minister Pilar Alegría demanded “maximum presence” in schools. Calling vaccinations an “effective tool,” she insisted the new school year “will not resemble the previous one at all. First of all, because of the experience we have acquired.” In reality, infections are mounting. According to the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, in the three weeks from July 26 to August 15, 82,587 children and adolescents aged between 5 and 19 were infected. The PSOE–Podemos government’s reckless reopening of schools consciously ignores what is happening outside Spain’s borders. In America, more than 500,000 children tested positive for COVID-19 from August 5 to 26, according to state data collected by the American Academy of Pediatrics. At least 203,962 of those cases were reported in the week of August 19–26 after schools were reopened. At the end of June, a reported weekly figure was just under 8,500. In Britain, the week to August 28, there were more than 300 Covid cases per 100,000 among 5- to 15-year-olds. In neighbouring France, Pasteur Institute estimates that in France alone, there could be 50,000 infections of children each day by late September.
Spain authorizes an extra Covid vaccine shot for people with weakened immune systems. - Spain has become the latest nation to authorize an extra shot of a Covid-19 vaccine for people with weakened immune systems, joining a growing trend by countries to move toward additional doses.The World Health Organization has warned that booster programs could divert supplies needed by largely unvaccinated countries, but agency officials have taken pains to distinguish between booster shots used to shore up immunity in vaccinated populations and additional doses that may be needed by the immunocompromised to develop immunity in the first place.The decision in Spain, announced on Tuesday by the country’s health regulator came after the European Medicines Agency, the E.U.’s drug regulator, said there was no urgent need to give booster doses of Covid-19 vaccine to fully inoculated individuals without underlying health issues, citing a report from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. But, the agencies added, extra doses should be considered for those with weakened immune systems, and as a precautionary measure for frail older adults, especially those living in nursing homes.The agency said that at this time, top priority should go to getting unvaccinated people shots. The drug regulator is continuing to assess data on booster shots.On Wednesday, the W.H.O. asked wealthy countries to hold off on administering booster shots for healthy patients until at least the end of the year as a way of enabling every country to vaccinate at least 40 percent of their populations. The organization had previously called for a booster-shot moratorium until the end of September.Several countries, including the Czech Republic, France, Germany and Israel, have already announced or begun booster programs for specific groups. The United States has cleared extra shots for people with weakened immune systems who had gotten the two-dose vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna. But top health officials advised the White House this month to scale backmoves toward a wider booster program for most Americans in order to give more time to review the scientific data.Despite the flurry of booster programs in wealthier nations, the science of whether they are needed is not yet clear. Experts generally agree, however, that a third shot is warranted for people with compromised immune systems, who may not have mounted a strong immune response to the initial doses. Several countries are now offering additional shots to this vulnerable group.
India’s DNA COVID Vaccine is a World First — More Are Coming - India has approved a new COVID-19 vaccine that uses circular strands of DNA to prime the immune system against the virus SARS-CoV-2. Researchers have welcomed news of the first DNA vaccine for people to receive approval anywhere in the world, and say many other DNA vaccines might soon be hot on its heels.ZyCoV-D, which is administered into the skin without an injection, has been found to be 67% protective against symptomatic COVID-19 in clinical trials, and will probably start to be administered in India this month. Although the efficacy is not particularly high compared to that of many other COVID-19 vaccines, the fact that it is a DNA vaccine is significant, say researchers.It is proof of the principle that DNA vaccines work and can help in controlling the pandemic, says Peter Richmond, a paediatric immunologist at the University of Western Australia in Perth. “This is a really important step forward in the fight to defeat COVID-19 globally, because it demonstrates that we have another class of vaccines that we can use.”Close to a dozen DNA vaccines against COVID-19 are in clinical trials globally, and at least as many again are in earlier stages of development. DNA vaccines are also being developed for many other diseases.“If DNA vaccines prove to be successful, this is really the future of vaccinology” because they are easy to manufacture, says Shahid Jameel, a virologist at Ashoka University in Sonipat, India.The urgency of combating COVID-19 has fast-tracked the development of vaccines that use genetic technology, such as messenger RNA and DNA vaccines, says David Weiner, director of the Vaccine & Immunotherapy Center at the Wistar Institute in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.RNA vaccines were quicker to show strong immune responses in clinical trials; they have now been delivered to hundreds of millions of people around the world. But DNA vaccines have a number of benefits, because they are easy to produce and the finished products are more stable than mRNA vaccines, which typically require storage at very low temperatures.ZyCoV-D was developed by Indian pharmaceutical firm Zydus Cadila, headquartered in Ahmedabad. On 20 August, India’s drug regulator authorized the vaccine for people aged 12 and older. The efficacy figure of 67% came from trials involving more than 28,000 participants, which saw 21 symptomatic cases of COVID-19 in the vaccinated group and 60 among people who received a placebo.
Doctors Issue Warning on New iPhone 12 and Pacemakers -- The release of Apple’s newest technology — the iPhone 12 series — is reviving old concerns about the safety of cellphones and people with pacemakers and implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs).The cause for pause comes from the smart technology’s addition of a circular array of more powerful magnets around a central charging coil that makes the phone compatible with MagSafe accessories such as cases, wallets, and wireless chargers.Doctors say carrying the device in a shirt pocket, bra, chest mount, or wraparound purse could suspend your pacemaker and ICD’s ability to send high-voltage shock therapy when needed.Doctors cite concerns over what they’re calling an “important public health issue” regarding the newer-generation iPhone 12 in a letter to the editor in Heart Rhythm.They tested the safety of the device on a person with an ICD and found that once the iPhone was brought close to the ICD over the left chest area, an immediate suspension of ICD therapies occurred and persisted for the duration of the test.“This result was reproduced multiple times with different positions of the phone over the pocket,” states the letter.The doctors further cite a report from 2020 showing magnetic interference from a fitness tracker wristband that deactivated an ICD up to distances of 2.4 centimeters (cm).They say this suggests other popular smart technologies used for lifestyle and health management pose similar potential for problems in people with pacemakers and ICDs.
“9/11’s Unsettled Dust”: Bush’s EPA Hid Health Risks from Toxic Dust at Ground Zero & Thousands Died – Democracy Now video and transcript - As this week marks the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, we look at an enraging new documentary, “9/11’s Unsettled Dust,” on the impact of the toxic, cancer-causing smoke and dust that hung over ground zero and how the Environmental Protection Agency put Wall Street’s interests before public health and told people the air was safe to breathe. One of the key figures in the film is Democracy Now! co-host Juan González, who was among the first to expose the public health and environmental crisis at ground zero in a series of reports for the New York Daily News. He says the intense backlash from the mayor’s office and federal officials “cowed” the newspaper, but he has no regrets. “My only mistake was believing that it would take 20 years for people to get sick,” González says. “It took about five years for the deaths and the severe illnesses to really become apparent.” Director Lisa Katzman says she made the film because she was a resident of Lower Manhattan who saw the attack and its aftermath up close and wanted “to address the lack of accountability” from city and federal officials. “The same people that were always touting 'Never forget! Never forget!' and constantly reminding us of the heroism of these responders were unwilling to do anything to actually help them,” notes Katzman.
Waste Watch: New EPA Reports Document Chemical and Plastics Contamination in Compost - Jerri-Lynn Scofield --The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released two reports last month, Persistent Chemical Contaminants and Plastic Contamination, documenting the presence of PFAS and plastics contamination in compost.According to the EPA’s website: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a group of man-made chemicals that includes PFOA, PFOS, GenX, and many other chemicals. PFAS have been manufactured and used in a variety of industries around the globe, including in the United States since the 1940s. PFOA and PFOS have been the most extensively produced and studied of these chemicals. Both chemicals are very persistent in the environment and in the human body – meaning they don’t break down and they can accumulate over time. There is evidence that exposure to PFAS can lead to adverse human health effects. It won’t come as any surprise that such PFAS and plastics are found in compost. What I found most worrying is the source: food waste. Yes, that’s right, PFAS get into compost via the food supply. According to the EPA’s Persistent Chemical Contaminants report: This issue paper demonstrates that food waste streams are a source of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) contamination in composts and digestates, with PFAS detected in food waste, food contact materials, and composts produced from food waste. While data on PFAS in food waste is limited, one study reported concentrations of three PFAS in the range of 0.11–1 μg/kg in samples collected from grocery stores, hospitals, schools, restaurants, retirement communicates, and residences. The presence of PFAS in food waste is further supported by multiple studies reporting PFAS in food (i.e., precursor of food waste) from non-contaminated areas, with concentrations generally <10 μg/kg. Seafood, followed by meat, may be important contributors to PFAS in food items, possibly due to bioaccumulation. Compared to PFAS concentrations in food contact materials, which ranged from <1 to 485 μg/kg, the limited data show that food contact materials may contribute more to overall PFAS levels in food waste streams.Composts made from a variety of mixed feedstocks, such as food waste, green waste (leaves and grass), and manure, showed total PFAS levels ranging from 2.3 to 75 μg/kg. Comparison of composts made with and without food waste showed that food waste compost had higher PFAS levels than green waste compost. Comparing results across three studies, which originated from the same research group, PFAS concentrations in decreasing order were: biosolids-based products (i.e., treated biosolids, composted biosolids) > food waste compost > green waste compost ≈ other organic composts. Likewise for plastics, including microplastics. According to the EPA’s Plastic Contamination report: The primary source of plastic contamination in food waste streams collected for processing at compost and anaerobic digestion facilities appears to be food packaging and containers, most likely from residential, commercial, and institutional sources. Food itself is also a source of microplastic particles. The level of plastic contamination present in food waste streams is not well characterized in the scientific literature. A recent analysis found approximately 300,000 pieces of microplastics per kilogram of food waste collected from grocery stores in the United States.
We’re breathing PFAS: Study finds harmful forever chemicals in indoor air—The air we breathe in our homes, schools, and workplaces can be polluted with harmful PFAS chemicals, according to a study published today in Environmental Science & Technology Letters. A new measurement technique developed by the research team detected PFAS chemicals in the air of kindergarten classrooms, university offices and laboratories, and a home—some with levels as high as those measured at an outdoor clothing company and carpet stores selling PFAS-treated products. The results suggest indoor air is an underestimated and potentially important source of exposure to PFAS, particularly for children. “Food and water are known to be major sources of PFAS exposure,” said Rainer Lohmann, senior author of the study and professor of oceanography at the University of Rhode Island. “Our study shows that indoor air, including dust, is another source of exposure to potentially harmful forever chemicals. In fact, for children in homes or schools with old PFAS-treated carpets, inhalation may be even more important than dust as an exposure pathway to volatile PFAS that eventually could biotransform to more persistent and harmful PFAS.”All PFAS are either extremely persistent in the environment or break down into extremely persistent PFAS. Several kindergarten classrooms and rooms at the university had higher indoor air concentrations of PFAS than the storage room of the outdoor clothing store, which was full of jackets and gear treated with PFAS. The highest concentrations were found in the two carpet stores. “PFAS were formerly used as stain and water repellents in most carpets," according to the paper’s lead author Maya Morales-McDevitt. “Fortunately, major retailers including The Home Depot and Lowe’s now only sell PFAS-free carpets. We believe that slowly smaller retailers will do so as well.” “As long as they continue to be used in products, we’ll all be eating, drinking, and breathing PFAS,”
EPA to propose first-ever 'forever chemical' discharge limits --The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on Wednesday that it will propose a rule to set the first-ever limits on the amount of chemicals called PFAS can be discharged. In a new plan released on Wednesday, the agency affirmed that it would propose a rule setting limits for PFAS wastewater discharges from facilities that manufacture the substances, as well as from chromium electroplating facilities. Certain types of PFAS, an acronym that stands for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, have been linked to health issues including types of cancer and problems with the immune system. They are sometimes called “forever chemicals” because they can accumulate in nature and the human body. “This plan illustrates one way that EPA is following science to better protect public health and the environment,” Assistant Administrator for Water Radhika Fox said in a statement on the plan.“Importantly and for the first time, EPA is committing to limit PFAS in wastewater discharges,” he added. The plan outlines several rules the agency will propose. This is not the first time the agency has indicated that it could regulate PFAS discharges. The EPA indicated in March that it could take action, calling it a “potential future rulemaking.” But the new report indicates that ”EPA has determined that the development of effluent guidelines and standards for PFAS manufacturers is warranted.” The plan also says that the agency revised rules surrounding discharges of other pollutants from facilities that slaughter or process meat and poultry that were last updated in 2004.
Ford Flat Rock Assembly Plant closes down after gas from facility leaks into sewer system - Ford's Flat Rock Assembly plant south of Detroit has been closed through Friday in response to the leaking of 1,000-3,000 gallons of benzene into the local sewer system. A state of emergency was declared last Thursday for the city of Flat Rock, as well as for Wayne and Monroe counties. Voluntary evacuations are being urged for residents in more than 1,100 homes in the surrounding area. The leak recalls the public health disaster in Flint, Michigan, after the city's 100,000 residents were exposed to lead-contaminated water when city officials switched the municipal water supply to the Flint River. The Flint River has been heavily contaminated by decades of industrial activity by General Motors and other auto companies. The leak also compounds the public health disaster in Michigan from the coronavirus pandemic, where it has officially claimed 21,000 lives. Wayne County, which includes Flat Rock as well as Detroit, has recorded over 5,000 deaths, the highest number of any county in the state. The leak was first indicated by residents who reported smelling fumes in the community as early as Tuesday, August 31. Ongoing investigations by EGLE (The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy) and other state and federal agencies have determined that the gas has spread through four square miles of the sewers. Benzene is a chemical that is a colorless or light yellow liquid at room temperature. It has a sweet odor and is highly flammable. According to the CDC, inhaling high levels of benzene can lead to drowsiness, dizziness, rapid or irregular heartbeat, headaches, tremors, confusion, and unconsciousness. At the highest levels of exposure death can occur. Long-term exposure to benzene causes harmful effects on the bone marrow and can cause a decrease in red blood cells, leading to anemia. It can also cause excessive bleeding and can affect the immune system, increasing the chance of an infection. Women who breathed high levels of benzene for many months have been found to have irregular menstrual periods and a decrease in the size of their ovaries. The Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) has also determined that benzene causes cancer in humans. Long-term exposure to high levels of benzene in the air can cause leukemia, which is cancer of the blood-forming organs.
'It’s like trying to inhale sandpaper': Evacuees describe escape from South Lake Tahoe - For residents of South Lake Tahoe, California, smoke and ash from the Caldor Fire hung over the town of South Lake Tahoe like the sword of Damocles. "When I got here 35 years ago, I knew something like this was going to happen. It was just a matter of time," "You take a walk out up Taylor Creek and there's so much fuel, it's scary." Still, there was some solace that during his 35 years of living in South Lake Tahoe and seeing some of the area's worst blazes, he had never been under a mandatory evacuation order. Not even for the Angora Fire. But with a knock on his door, the sword fell. One of the 7,000 fires that have scorched across the state of California this year, the Caldor Fire has burned over 216,000 acres and has destroyed at least 994 buildings, according to CalFire. The blaze is 44% contained as of Tuesday afternoon. Chris Lapore had been ready. While the weather in the Sierra Nevada was always changing and hardly reliable, his area had been under a warning for a couple of weeks. He had already packed a bag. "I knew it was coming," Lapore told Wadell. When the order was issued, Lapore said one of his friends took a picture of the sun as they left and it had looked "like a picture of hell." If the warnings in place hadn't been enough of a tip-off, the declining air quality had certainly been a harbinger of the worst yet to come. It had been raining fine ash for about a week ahead of the mandatory evacuation, Lapore recounted. He had spent most of the time locked in his apartment to avoid breathing in the thick air. “It’s like trying to inhale sandpaper,” Lapore said. “It’s not a pleasant experience because there’s fine, particulate ash in it and it grates. It feels horrible on your throat." While the mandatory evacuation order issued the week prior for portions of South Lake Tahoe had been downgraded to evacuation warnings just before Labor Day, many felt unsafe returning to their home either because of the continued threat of the blaze or because of the health threat that the poor air quality posed.
Rise in 'floodwater mosquitoes' expected in wake of historic Ida deluge -As millions of people try to recover after Tropical Rainstorm Ida tore through the Northeast last week causing historic flooding, experts have warned about the rise of "floodwater mosquitoes." Most mosquitoes in urban areas, like the common house mosquito, are from a species that breeds in standing water that collects in puddles, buckets, birdbaths, tarps and neglected or abandoned swimming pools. Floodwater mosquitoes, such as the Inland Floodwater Mosquito, Aedes vexans, lay eggs in dry locations where there is a high probability of flooding. And there was extreme flooding last week across a wide portion of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, including in and around the New York City and Philadelphia metro areas after Ida tore through.“It’s important to understand that different mosquito species have different life cycles," Dr. Jim Fredericks, chief entomologist and vice president of technical and regulatory affairs with The National Pest Management Association (NPMA), said. "Also, different mosquito species have different capacity for transmitting disease.”Fredericks told AccuWeather that floodwater mosquitoes lay eggs in moist environments or in places just above the natural waterline. After a short period of drying, the eggs must then be flooded with water to hatch. During periods of drought, eggs can remain dormant but viable for many years, waiting for the water to rise. “When rains come and those depressions or seasonal pools flood, that's when those eggs will hatch, and so they're often most commonly found and experienced directly after extreme rains,” Fredericks said. Floodwater mosquitoes are most abundant around the edges of moist pastures, irrigation furrows, swales, ditches and similar habitats. Rainfall pushes the groundwater upward and creates puddles, small ponds and flooded meadows and fields. If the temperature is right, a newly-hatched mosquito can develop into an adult in less than a week during the spring and summer. Plus, larvae can hatch in masses. In addition to rainfall, temperature plays a huge role in the life cycle of a mosquito, Fredericks explained. Mosquitoes will grow faster when temperatures are higher. The lower the temperature, the longer it takes mosquitoes to develop from larvae into adults.
Nearly Half of U.S. Coastal Marshes Are Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise, Study Finds - Tidal wetlands are vitally important ecosystems that provide food, host fishery stocks, store carbon and protect coasts from storm surges.They are also extremely vulnerable to sea level rise. In fact, a study published inEarth's Future recently found that 43 to 48 percent of the tidal wetlands along the coastal U.S. were vulnerable to inundation by 2100. Further, that vulnerability is heavily influenced by where they are located. To assess how vulnerable tidal marshes were to sea level rise, the researchers looked at two metrics of vulnerability: vertical and lateral.Vertical vulnerability refers to a wetland's ability to raise its elevation by accreting, or building up, sediment. A wetland is more vulnerable if the projected rate of sea level rise in its area outpaces its ability to raise itself up.Lateral vulnerability, on the other hand, refers to a wetland's ability to move inland, which is limited if the adjacent ground is too steep or already in use for farming or development. The researchers calculated lateral vulnerability by looking at the "sliver of land" between where wetlands currently end and where they would need to expand to in order to offset future sea level rise. They then determined whether and how much of that land was available. To reach their conclusions, the study authors relied on sea level rise projections based on low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios through 2100 to determine how they would interact with the two types of vulnerability."For most of the U.S.," Holmquist said, "those two things offset each other, but for some places they compound." In fact, they compounded for 43 to 48 percent of wetlands, predominantly in the Gulf of Mexico and along the mid-Atlantic Coast, specifically Chesapeake Bay. Wetlands in the South tended to face more vertical vulnerability, while wetlands in the North and along the Pacific Coast faced more lateral vulnerability, in many cases because of development.
Conservation groups file lawsuit against owner of central Maine dams, citing violation of Endangered Species Act - The Atlantic Salmon Federation and other conservation groups on Thursday filed a lawsuit against Brookfield Renewable Energy and its partners, alleging the dam owner violated the Endangered Species Act by killing Atlantic salmon and other sea-run fish that are critical to commercial fishing and the health of the Gulf of Maine. According to the lawsuit, the ongoing operations at four hydropower projects on the Kennebec River “take” the Gulf of Maine Distinct Population Segment of Atlantic Salmon, which is listed on Endangered Species Act-list. Those hydropower facilities are the Lockwood Project dam in Waterville, Hydro-Kennebec Project dam in Waterville and Winslow, Weston Project dam in Skowhegan and Shawmut Project dam in Fairfield. The lawsuit was filed in U.S. District Court, District of Maine. The 26-page lawsuit cites the Endangered Species Act, which says “it is unlawful for any person subject to the jurisdiction of the U.S. to “take any such species within the United States or the territorial sea of the United States.” The suit is filed jointly by the Atlantic Salmon Federation, Conservation Law Foundation, Maine Rivers and Natural Resources Council of Maine.
EPA Takes Steps to Block Pebble Mine on Alaska’s Bristol Bay, Thus Protecting World’s Largest Sockeye Salmon Run - Jerri-Lynn Scofield - Biden’s’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) yesterday took steps to block the proposed open-pit Pebble Mine, an on-again, off-again project, on Alaska’s Bristol Bay, southwest of Anchorage and close to the world’s largest sockeye salmon run. The proposed mine would extract gold, copper, and molybdenum.The fight to preserve Bristol Bay isn’t a simple one pitting business interests on one side against environmentalists on the other. According to Stop Pebble Mine, an initiative sponsored by the Bristol Bay Defense Fund — a coalition of business, tribal, nonprofit, and community organizations dedicated to protecting Bristol Bay from the Pebble Mine:Bristol Bay is the lifeblood of Alaska. Home to the world’s largest wild sockeye salmon run, the bay provides tens of thousands of Alaskan jobs and feeds Americans from coast to coast. Its pristine waters have sustained the Indigenous peoples of the region for millennia, and each year tens of thousands of anglers and visitors from around the world are drawn to its extraordinary beauty and abundance.Tussling over the Pebble Mine project has been ongoing for more than a decade. According to the Washington Post, in EPA to protect Alaska’s Bristol Bay, blocking major gold mine:The Obama administration initially proposed blocking the project in 2014 due to what itcalled the “unacceptable environmental effects” that an open-pit mine posed to the region’s ecologically and economically valuable habitats. It did not, however, finalize that determination.The Bristol Bay watershed, unlike the waters of many other salmon fisheries, requires no hatcheries to raise and release fish into its rivers. The Obama administration projectedthat mining activity could destroy 1,200 acres of wetlands, lakes and ponds.On this project, as with so many other environmental issues, Trump’s EPA administration did not see eye-to-eye with his predecessor. Over to the WaPo: President Donald Trump’s first EPA administrator,Scott Pruitt, reversed that finding andallowed the mine operators to apply for a permit. But the Trump administration eventually shelved the mining plan after the release of embarrassing secret recordings of the mine’s sponsors as well as sustained opposition from Fox News host Tucker Carlson and other leading conservatives who like to fish in the area. The EPA filed a motion in the United States District Court for Alaska to quash Trump EPA administrator Pruitt’s decision to withdrew protections for Bristol Bay. If the federal court agrees, the EPA may then begin hammering out permanent protections for the area, likely to be promulgated under the authority of the Clean Water Act.
2 in 5 Shark Species Threatened With Extinction, Says IUCN More than a third of shark and ray species are directly threatened by extinction, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) warned on Saturday.The revelation came in the IUCN's updated Red List assessment on endangered wildlife, which was released at the body's World Conservation Congress in Marseilles, France.The most comprehensive survey ever undertaken of sharks and rays found that 37% of 1,200 species evaluated now fall into one of three categories: "vulnerable," "endangered," or "critically endangered."The IUCN blamed overfishing for the threat — roughly 800,000 tons of shark is caught each year — intentionally or opportunistically, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization. Other research suggests the true figure is up to four times greater.Meanwhile, the Komodo dragon — the world's largest living lizards — was also moved into the IUCN's endangered category.The Komodo is found only in the World Heritage-listed Komodo National Park and neighboring Flores, in Indonesia.The species "is increasingly threatened by the impacts of climate change" said the IUCN: rising sea levels are expected to shrink its already tiny habitat at least 30 percent over the next 45 years."The idea that these prehistoric animals have moved one step closer to extinction due in part to climate change is terrifying," Andrew Terry, conservation director at the Zoological Society of London, said, calling for action to protect nature at the Glasgow climate conference in November.
Summer 2021 Was Hottest on Record in the Contiguous U.S., NOAA Says --Summer 2021 was the hottest in 126 years of records for the contiguous United States, according to a report released by NOAA on Thursday. The average temperature for all of the Lower 48 states from June through August was 74.0 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2.6 degrees above average. That barely edged out the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 for the top spot by less than 0.01 of a degree, NOAA said.For reference, meteorologists define summer based on what is typically the hottest time of year – June through August.California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Utah all had a record-hot summer. An additional 21 states had a top-10 hottest summer, stretching from the Front Range of the Rockies and Northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast.Only parts of the Deep South had a summer with temperatures close to average. Where the summer (June-August) ranked among the hottest on record for the contiguous U.S. A ranking of 127 means it was the hottest summer on record in that stateA record-hot June across the Lower 48 helped propel summer 2021 to the hottest on record. That was followed by the 13th- and 14th-hottest July and August, respectively.Four of the five hottest contiguous U.S. summers have now happened in the past 11 years.2021 and 1936 are neck-and-neck for first and second place. Rounding out the top five are 2012, 2011 and 2020.The year-to-date as a whole is not quite in the top 10 hottest for the Lower 48. January through August had an average temperature 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above average, which ranks as 13th-warmest for that nine-month period.Regardless of where it ends up on the list, summer 2021 will continue the long-term trend from climate change.Eight of the nation's top 10 warmest summers have occurred in this century, according to NOAA. Only two summers in the 21st century were cooler than average – 2004 and 2009.Since 1970, much of the U.S. has seen a warmer trend in summer, according to an analysis from Climate Central. This is particularly the case from Texas to the West and also in much of the East from Florida to Michigan to New England.
Outlook Points to Persistent Drought With Widespread Effects - - The latest NOAA north-central region drought status update has some daunting statistics: More than half -- 52% -- of the central U.S. is in drought; 24% of the central U.S. is in either extreme (D3) or exceptional (D4) drought; it has been 9.5 years, since 2012, since drought has covered this extensive an area of the central United States. The north-central U.S. is made up of the entire states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming; and the Missouri River Basin portion of Colorado. Of these states, 100% of Montana and North Dakota are in drought; 97% of Minnesota; 95% of Wyoming; 94% of South Dakota; and 57% of Iowa. Also, recent notable rainfall has not moved the drought needle; the report notes that the severity and extent of drought are "virtually unchanged," according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Effects of the drought are widespread in the region. These include wildfires; limited surface water in streams, rivers and livestock ponds; poor water quality; disruption to recreation; low soil moisture; poor pasture conditions; crop yield loss; rural mental health issues; and damage to ecosystems. Yes, there has been rain recently, and more rain is forecast into early September. But the report stresses: "Given the severity of the current drought, consecutive seasons with above-normal rain and snow events will be needed in order to see improvement in drought impacts. As a result, drought conditions will likely persist into next year, although some improvement might be possible." Northern Iowa, southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin possibly will see the highest chance at drought easing. These areas had rainfall in the week of Aug. 23-29, totaling from 2 to 5 inches and even heavier in northeast Iowa; river and stream flooding resulted. However, severe to extreme drought in effect means that long-term drought easing may be minimal. In addition, conditions continued to be very warm to hot during this late-August period. Daytime temperatures were noted in the 90s Fahrenheit and overnight low temperatures in the 70s -- with some new record-warm minimums posted.
Buffalo Is Closer To Its First Average Snowfall Than You Think - Now that Labor Day Weekend is officially over, many are looking forward to the start of the fall season, even though the calendar technically says it's still summer. But the weather will also get cooler and believe it or not, we're not that far off from the first average annual snowfall for Buffalo.The first average snowfall, according to the National Weather Service, is October 24th. That's when the first flakes usually fly in Buffalo and that's just over six weeks away.The first (average) measurable snow is two weeks later on November 8th. The first inch is on November 18th. Again, on average. Those could happen earlier or later, so we will have to wait and see.You remember the October Surprise Storm, which took place late on October 12th and early on October 13th in 2006, which crippled the region with heavy, wet snowfall and downed tree limbs and power lines."Snowvember" was a week before Thanksgiving in 2014, which brought seven to eight feet of snow to parts of the southtowns; so we know that big-time snow can take place in Western New York early. By the way, November of 2000 brought a famous "surprise" lake effect snowstorm in November. Six years later, we had the October Surprise Storm, and eight years after that, it was Snowvember.
New Jersey’s largest dairy devastated by an EF-3 tornado in Mullica Hill (video, pictures) - An EF-3 tornado produced by remnants of Category 4 Hurricane "Ida" touched down in Mullica Hill, New Jersey on September 1, 2021, devastating Wellacrest Farms -- the state's largest dairy farm. The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, NJ has conducted several storm surveys for damage from storms on Wednesday, September 1 associated with the remnants of Ida1and confirmed 7 tornadoes (1 x EF-3, 2 x EF-2, 3 x EF-3, 1 x EF-0) touched down in New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.2The tornado touched down near Harrisonville, NJ doing mostly damage to trees and limbs before strengthening and moving northeast. As it moved to the northeast, it crossed into the Cedar Grove area producing more significant damage to trees with many trees uprooted.The tornado moved into the Willow Oaks subdivision strengthening further and producing significant damage to trees, as well as serious structural damage to a number of homes. Several homes had exterior walls completely collapsed, a number of homes lost roofs and upper story walls, and one home had only a few interior walls remaining. Vehicles were tossed around and moved, and damage from flying debris was observed in several spots.The tornado continued to move to the northeast to Bridgeton Pike where multiple trees had trunks snapped and most of the barns and storage buildings at a large commercial farm were completely destroyed. The tornado also reached its maximum width at this location and was estimated to be around 365 m (400 yards) wide.The tornado then continued northeast through the woods with multiple trees snapped before entering the subdivision at Salvatore Drive. Here the tornado's most significant damage was observed with one home completely destroyed with no interior or exterior walls standing. Other homes in the subdivision had exterior walls collapsed along with garage collapses and vehicles being tossed around by the tornadic winds. The consistency of the damage along the path of the tornado in this area was EF-3 in the middle of the circulation, with EF-2 along the edge of the circulation. In addition, the tree damage was not as extensive behind the completely destroyed house. Based on the consistency of the damage along Salvatore Drive, a rating of EF-3 (240 km/h / 150 mph) was determined. The tornado continued to the northeast damaging trees and structures along its path before reaching a large commercial dairy farm where extensive damage occurred. The tornado then crossed Jefferson Road and crossed Eachus Road snapping multiple trees. Thereafter, the tornado moved into the Breakneck Road area producing complete deforestation with nearly 100 percent of the trees in a thickly wooded area snapped. The tornado path crossed Main St, just south of Chestnut Branch Park in Mantua Township snapping and uprooting a number of trees before reaching the Delaware Valley Florist commercial greenhouse mostly destroying the structure. The tornado damage path then continued to the northeast reaching Wenonah, snapping and uprooting a number of trees, a few homes lost roofs and one structure collapsed. In eastern portions of Woodbury Heights, several trees were snapped along a path from Chesnut Avenue to the intersection of Walnut Avenue and Tanyard Road. Along this path on Glenwood Court, two homes lost a significant amount of siding on one side and a fence was blown over.
Over 100,000 without power in Michigan after storm -More than 100,000 people are without power in Michigan after a storm hit the state on Tuesday.More than 106,000 individuals are without power on Wednesday, according to poweroutage.us, after severe thunderstorms hit southwest Michigan. Utility company DTE Energy said on its website that more than 2,000 crews are in the field working to restore power to almost 30,000 customers. A spokesperson for Consumers Energy told local outlet Fox 17 the company has been preparing for this storm since Saturday."This storm that's coming through, we expect at the very front end of the storm, that's going to be where the wind gusts are the highest, and again, the wind gusts are really what's going to end up causing problems if there are any,” the spokesperson said. "We look at the weather forecast and see where the storm might hit the hardest," he added.One school district had to cancel classes after trees were ripped from the ground and the power was still not back on, SF Gate reported.
Amidst downed trees, debris and no A/C, St. Charles Parish residents rough it during Ida recovery - Seven days after Hurricane Ida killed his electricity and sent trees, branches and rainwater pouring into Lester Johnson’s St. Charles Parish home, the 72-year-old grandfather had a lot of problems on his plate. But on this day, he decided to tackle the laundry. -- The destruction in Killona, a small community on the west bank of the Mississippi River, mirrors the devastation across most of St. Charles Parish, which was battered for more than four hours with sustained winds of 125 mph from Hurricane Ida’s ferocious eyewall, officials said. Houses were stripped of their roofs, their water-laden ceilings collapsing to the floors. Trees crashed through homes and onto cars. Garbage and piles of debris, including soaked insulation and furniture, filled the roadways. St. Charles Parish public works and Entergy crews have removed most of the trees and downed power poles that were blocking the parish’s major roadways. But they’ve not yet made their way onto many of the side streets in the parish’s smaller neighborhoods. About 220 linemen working with Entergy were in and around the parish Sunday – including a fleet from Indiana stationed at the East Bank Bridge Park -- as they began the work of repairing the damaged electrical distribution system, according to St. Charles Parish President Matthew Jewell. Another 420 were expected to join them on Monday.Still, because of the extensive damage, the majority of St. Charles Parish residents shouldn't expect to have power restored for more than four weeks, according to Entergy. That means more miserable days and nights for residents without generators for air conditioning or fans.
For Louisiana's coastal tribes, 'being at the end of the earth is a dangerous place' -- When Shirell Parfait-Dardar returned to her home in Dulac, she found that Hurricane Ida's unforgiving winds had ripped the roof off and blown the walls in. A dressmaker by trade, she discovered her sewing shop seemed to have been lifted off the ground, flipped upside down and smashed. "Every building on my property was destroyed," said the chief of the Grand Caillou/Dulac Band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw, now staying with her mother in Thibodaux. Almost every member of her Native American tribe suffered the same fate. Those who lived in mobile homes saw their trailers blown up or "thrown to the ground and beaten up to the point where it's unlivable," she said. "If they haven't lost their home, they're on the verge of losing their home because there's so much damage to it," she said. And for those residents, the clock's ticking a week after the Category 4 storm struck: They must salvage what they can and secure their property before mold sets in. From the air, tribal communities across Louisiana's coast appear to have been decimated by Hurricane Ida:
- In Pointe-aux-Chênes, home of the Pointe-au-Chien tribe, the storm leveled the elevated houses near the bayou's end. Left behind were piles of splintered wood surrounded by a pool of water five days after the storm. Just 15 homes remained livable, said Theresa Dardar, a Pointe-au-Chien tribal member.
- The United Houma Nation, a tribe of 19,000 spread across several communities from Houma to Golden Meadow and the Lafitte area, saw more than three quarters of its residents' houses destroyed or rendered uninhabitable, said Thomas Dardar, the tribe's hurricane relief manager. "The storm was pretty much as if a bomb went off," he said, speaking from the tribal center where more than a dozen people and several pets were still sheltering Friday. Recovery will take years, he added.
- Just west on its own sinking island, the Isle de Jean Charles Band of the Biloxi-Chitimacha Confederation of Muskogees saw similar devastation. Homes crumpled and the marina lost its roof.
All four of the state-recognized tribes suffered tremendous loss from Ida, as well as several other tribes without any formal status such as the Grand Bayou Indian Village in Plaquemines Parish. Surveying the coast by airplane, Tammy Greer, a United Houma Nation citizen with family in other tribes, was astounded by the scope of the damage. "Usually it's one or two communities affected, and we can help each other out. This time, everybody else is just as bad as you are." Without federal recognition, recovery will be slower. None of the coastal tribes has met the criteria put in place for Washington, D.C., to recognize their tribal governments as sovereign powers. "As far as the federal government is concerned, they're not a tribe," Crepelle said, who specializes in federal law concerning Native Americans. "It's definitely a barrier because, historically, the tribe was denied access to education and things like that, so they're already starting from lower opportunities to begin with."
Ida was most destructive hurricane ever, power company says -- Hurricane Ida did more damage to Louisiana's electrical grid than any other storm in the history of the state, a local power company said Sunday. In fact, Entergy Louisiana says Ida did more damage to the grid than Hurricanes Katrina (2005), Delta (2020) and Zeta (2020) combined. Ida, which made landfall as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 mph, knocked out power to more than 900,000 Entergy customers across southeast Louisiana. According to Entergy, the storm "devastated" Louisiana's power grid, damaging more than 30,000 utility poles, close to 35,000 spans of wire and 5,600 transformers. "We're seeing twice as much damage as what we had with Laura [in 2020]," said Joe Book, the senior manager of distribution engineering for Entergy in Louisiana. "We've never seen anything this large. Even with Katrina, the damage was extended to multiple states. With Ida, nearly all of the damage is here in Louisiana." Even without the electric system being completely assessed, Ida's damage to distribution utility poles is nearly double that of Laura, which devastated southwest Louisiana just one year ago. Compared to Hurricane Katrina, Ida has seen more than 5,000 spans of wire — the length of wire from one utility pole to another — damaged. "Ida had the devastating impact like Laura in a specific region, plus it impacted three neighboring regions including the two largest metropolitan areas in Louisiana," said Chip Arnold, Louisiana operations and safety senior manager. "So, the infrastructure damage totals are larger, and in addition to that, the breadth of our service territory that was impacted was much greater." Company officials say the biggest challenge Entergy crews face is replacing more than 24,000 utility poles, which support the power lines that deliver electricity from substations to homes and businesses. Replacing poles can be difficult, especially considering the geographical challenges presented by the impacted region, they say. Distribution poles can be found in and around marshes, swamps, rivers, heavily wooded areas, and various hard-to-reach locations. In some cases, lineworkers have been forced to climb utility poles without the assistance of heavy machinery at all, as factors like muddy terrain and limited space only allow for trained employees to mount poles with special boots, safety ropes and the assistance of crew members.
Energy company: Hurricane Ida restoration could take weeks— Full restoration of electricity to some of the hardest-hit areas of Louisiana battered to an unprecedented degree by Hurricane Ida could take until the end of the month, the head of Entergy Louisiana warned Saturday. At least 16 deaths were blamed on the storm in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Ida damaged or destroyed more than 22,000 power poles, more than hurricanes Katrina, Zeta and Delta combined, an impact Entergy President and CEO Phillip May called “staggering.” More than 5,200 transformers failed and nearly 26,000 spans of wire — the stretch of transmission wires between poles — were down. “The level of devastation makes it quite difficult or near impossible to get in and fully assess some places,” said May of five southeastern Louisiana parishes facing the longest delays. The company is estimating full power restoration by Sept. 29 or even longer for some customers. About a quarter of New Orleans residents have power back, including all the city’s hospitals, and the city’s 27 substations are ready to serve customers, One of the parishes facing long delays for power restoration is Terrebonne, where volunteers in the parish seat of Houma handed out ice, water and meals to shell-shocked storm survivors Saturday. Houma is roughly 55 miles (90 kilometers) southwest of New Orleans. Among those in need was of Dulac, who collected a container of red beans and rice, pulling over an Infiniti with a shattered windshield to eat. 26-year-old Kendall Duthu has been living in his car with a shattered windshield, with his girlfriend, since the storm hit. He was a cook at a jambalaya restaurant before the pandemic claimed that job, then a car wash worker until that went away. Duthu, a diabetic, lost his house in the storm and doesn’t know what’s next. Houma’s Hancock Whitney Bank, itself badly damaged by Ida, has distributed water along with about 42,000 meals since Tuesday, said CEO John Hairston. South of Houma, splintered trees, swamped furniture and the wreckage of houses littered roadsides. In Ashland, Louisiana, 27-year-old Rene Gregoire Jr. stood outside his house, where windows blew out and water gushed in. It was the latest blow for the tugboat worker after badly hurting his wrist on the job, contracting COVID-19, and his dog requiring a $3,000 surgery. ADVERTISEMENT Just south along Bayou Grand Caillou, Harry Bonvillain surveyed damage to his home, the house raised on concrete pillars now surrounded by a maze of broken staircases and splintered lumber. Much of Bonvillain’s possessions were lost, mildew covered his clothes and ants were taking over the house.
Hurricane Ida outages leave New Orleans residents 'hot and miserable' - All across New Orleans, residents are sweaty and grumbling, alternately frustrated and resigned to what many feel is the slow pace of power restoration after Hurricane Ida's destruction. Experts say the heat poses a real danger to the elderly who cannot cool off, and at least four people have died and 82 people have been taken to hospitals because of carbon monoxide poisoning from generators. About 438,000 customers remained without electricity Monday night, and some areas of Louisiana may not see their power restored for several more weeks, power provider Entergy predicts.The death toll in Louisiana from Ida rose to 26 Wednesday, after health officials reported 11 additional deaths in New Orleans, mostly older people who perished from the heat. “It’s hot and miserable, frustrating and uncomfortable," Cooper, 57, says Monday afternoon. She hopes the power comes back Wednesday, but that will be only the first step: She works as a server at a restaurant that's closed because it doesn't have power, and without money coming in, she's worried about paying her bills. “We're sweating to death," Paula Calice, 65, says, waving a pair of cooking tongs and dancing as "Hot in Herre" by Nelly rumbles from the speakers of her parked Honda minivan. Calice and her husband, along with several others, set up barbecue grills on the median on St. Claude hours after the storm passed. They're still out there, cooking and giving away whatever food people donate. Kelly has been helping them. An out-of-work mason, Kelly has been staying with family in the area and volunteered to cook with Calice and her husband, Kevin.A few blocks away, Cam Mangham, 59, and her neighbors are doing the same – collecting or buying whatever food they can find to give it away. Without refrigeration to keep food from spoiling or electricity to run microwaves and stoves, and with only limited supplies of gasoline, many New Orleans residents depend on free food giveaways to survive. “We’re exhausted. I’m not sure how much longer we can do this," Mangham says. “New Orleans didn’t do that bad, and we’d be fine if we just had electricity.” Tuesday's forecast is for temperatures in the 80s, with close to 90% humidity. Recognizing the danger posed by the heat, city officials opened nearly a dozen recreation centers for residents to cool off in.
Heat is the unexpected killer in the aftermath of hurricanes - When the winds of Hurricane Ida finally died down, most of South Louisiana was left in the dark. Flood waters inundated towns to the south and west of New Orleans, and towers carrying high voltage transmission lines into the city crumpled, leaving the lines in the Mississippi River. Starting last Tuesday, the National Weather Service warned that the heat index would climb as high as 105 degrees from a combination of high temperatures and excessive humidity. The humidity broke over the weekend, but residents still sweltered without air conditioning, and the city has opened emergency cooling centers at community centers. That heat is deadly. As people sat sweating inside their homes, or stood in hours-long lines for gas, the city’s ambulance service began seeing an uptick in heat-related calls. And as people fire up generators to cut the heat, they take on other risks. On Wednesday, NOEMS transported 12 people with carbon monoxide poisoning from a single house. Seven were children. Three others have died in Jefferson Parish, which took a direct hit from Ida.On Thursday night, two people in New Orleans were hospitalized after their generator caught fire. Other buildings in a western suburb may have burned during the storm because of a similar fire. The situation mirrors the aftermath of Hurricane Laura, which struck southwestern Louisiana almost exactly a year before Ida. Laura and Ida, both Category 4 hurricanes with 150-plus mile per hour winds, are tied for the strongest storms to hit Louisiana since the 1850s. In total, 31 Louisianans died in Laura. But the vast majority of them died after the storm had passed and they were left enduring weeks of 100-degree heat without power. Twenty died of carbon monoxide, heat, electrocution, or smoke inhalation. The fact that the two storms and their aftermath have looked so similar is mostly a coincidence, according to Barry Keim, a climate scientist at Louisiana State University and the state climatologist. “It is a coincidence that we’ve had two Category Four hurricanes hit in two consecutive years,” said Keim. “I don’t think that’s happened in any state prior to this occurrence. That in and of itself is remarkable.”
Ida deaths rise by 11 in New Orleans; Louisiana toll now 26 -Louisiana on Wednesday reported 11 more deaths attributed to Hurricane Ida, nine of them New Orleans residents 64 to 70 who suffered "excessive heat during an extended blackout" after the storm hit. The other two deaths were New Orleans residents killed by carbon monoxide poisoning. New Orleans officials said earlier this week that many elderly people were trapped in residential apartments with no electricity or air conditioning in the sweltering heat.The 11 new victims died between Aug. 30 and Monday, but the Orleans Parish coroner just confirmed that they were tied to Ida, state officials said. Louisiana's death toll from the hurricane now stands at 26. At least 50 more people died as Ida dumped rain on the East Coast, from Virginia to New England.Although power is now restored to most of New Orleans, about 342,000 people in the state still have no electricity, gas shortages are common, and 250,000 students in southeastern Louisiana are still unable to return to school.
With Louisiana monitors disabled, EPA tries to measure air pollution at industrial plants | Environment - As the electrical grid smashed by Hurricane Ida comes back to life and industrial plants fire up again, federal regulators began assessing the air pollution Thursday at five sites in southeast Louisiana. Ida knocked out power to more than 1 million electricity customers in the state, including much of the industrial corridor along the Mississippi River between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. With power returning, the big plants have been running flares and other smokestacks to restart operations, raising concern about a big pulse of air pollution at a time when 15 of the state's air monitors are out of commission. The U.S. Environmental Protection agency said it has installed monitors at the Shell oil refinery in Norco, the Denka Performance Elastomer plant in Reserve, the Marathon refinery in Garyville, at a state site in the Irish Channel in New Orleans and at Port Fourchon. Though down 15 permanent monitoring stations, the state Department of Environmental Quality had already stationed mobile monitors at the Shell refinery and at the Chalmette and Valero refineries and other petrochemical plants in St. Bernard Parish. State environment officials say dark, sooty flaring shouldn't be a cause for alarm because the flares were likely combusting almost all of the pollutants. EPA officials said its community-based monitoring will measure volatile organic compounds that can cause harmful smog. They are a common emission from petrochemical plants. The monitors will also measure minute airborne dust and other particles, which are known to cause respiratory and other health ailments with long-term exposure.
Katrina spurred a mass migration. Will Ida do the same? - Southeast Louisiana is bracing for a mass exodus following Hurricane Ida, which has killed at least 13 people in the state and left hundreds of thousands without power, water and other essential services. While preliminary estimates are rough, experts say the storm could force tens of thousands of people from their homes in four parishes hardest hit by Ida: Lafourche, Jefferson, Plaquemines and Terrebonne. Most of Ida’s damage is concentrated below New Orleans — which saw high winds but relatively modest flooding. But experts say there are potential parallels between what’s happening now and what happened after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Big Easy in 2005. More than 250,000 residents left New Orleans after Katrina swamped the city, killing roughly 900 people in Orleans and St. Bernard parishes, according to the Louisiana Department of Health. Other estimates put the death toll much higher, and there is little consensus on an official tally. If a similar percentage of people are displaced by Ida, permanent losses could exceed 130,000 people, mostly from rural areas and small cities, experts say. But displacement could extend into the New Orleans metropolitan area, particularly north Jefferson Parish along the Mississippi River. “No question these outside parishes are going to see declines. The question is how much and how fast,” Jesse Keenan, associate professor at the Tulane School of Architecture and expert on climate migration, said in a telephone interview. “A lot of people simply won’t have the resources to come back, and resources aren’t available at the parish level, either. There are long-term fiscal implications to school systems, water and sewer systems, and everything else. “When we’re hit by one of these big storms, we lose a lot more than people,” Keenan said. “We lose a little bit of our souls.” The lost souls from Ida are among the most isolated and culturally distinct in America. They include roughneck oil and gas workers, native fishermen and farmers, small business owners, and thousands of Indigenous people, including members of the 19,000-strong Houma tribe and other Native communities.
Hurricane Ida losses likely short of Katrina totals, could hit $25B | S&P Global Market Intelligence - Preliminary loss estimates from Hurricane Ida approach $25 billion, but should remain well below what the U.S. Gulf Coast saw in August 2005 when it was devastated by Hurricane Katrina. While Ida is expected to generate significant economic and insured losses in Louisiana, it is "unlikely to trigger ratings downgrades of individual property and casualty insurers or reinsurers," according to Fitch Ratings. There is the potential for industry loss of $15 billion to $25 billion, according to the rating agency. That figure is below the record $65 billion of insured losses from Katrina, which struck Louisiana on the same date as Ida 16 years ago and became the largest insured loss event in U.S. history.Wells Fargo analyst Elyse Greenspan anticipates insured losses from Ida of between $15 billion and $20 billion, which she expects will "hit into reinsurer attachment points." The insurance industry is "well capitalized" and should be able to absorb losses from Ida without hurting capital positions, she said. That said, some insurers and reinsurers may temporarily pause their stock buybacks until the hurricane season ends, Greenspan added.It will take months to determine the magnitude of insured damages and how much the storm will affect primary property and casualty insurers, Moody's analyst Jasper Cooper said. The Gulf Coast is "a peak catastrophe zone for reinsurers" and companies with exposure to Louisiana and its neighboring states may experience "meaningful losses," Cooper said.Ida made landfall on the southeastern coast of Louisiana as a Category 4 storm around 12 p.m. CDT on Aug. 29. The storm came ashore near Port Fourchon, La., with sustained winds approaching 150 mph and causing a storm surge of between 8 and 12 feet.Ida matched Hurricane Laura in 2020 and the Last Island Hurricane of 1856 as the strongest storms to hit Louisiana. It is the fifth-strongest hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S.After lashing the Gulf Coast with high winds and heavy rains, Ida was forecast continue on a northeast track through Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia before heading out to the Atlantic Ocean over the Mid-Atlantic states before the end of the week.Ida knocked out power across the entire city of New Orleans and elsewhere throughout the Gulf Coast as the wind and storm surge took out power lines and transformers, as well as a transmission tower near the city. More than 1 million Gulf Coast residents were left without power in the immediate aftermath of the storm.S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows that State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. had far and away the most residential exposure in Louisiana and Mississippi, based on homeowners premiums written in 2020. Chubb Ltd. and American International Group Inc. were the largest writers of commercial property business in Louisiana in 2020, though State Farm was also a major player in that market. The Travelers Cos. Inc. was the biggest commercial property writer for Mississippi, with $39.3 million in such premiums in 2020.
Tropical Storm Mindy makes landfall in Florida panhandle - Tropical Storm Mindy made landfall in Wednesday evening in Florida's panhandle, bringing strong wind and rain to the area. The storm made landfall in St. Vincent Island, about 90 miles southwest of Tallahassee, along the state's northwest Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center. Sustained winds were measured at about 44 mph with gusts reaching 55 mph. Tropical storm warnings had been issued earlier in the day for a parts of the Panhandle. "Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning," the Hurricane Center said. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban and small stream flooding. Even when the center of the storm was offshore, tropical downpours had already soaked parts of the Southeast, AccuWeather said. Flooding downpours may hit metro areas in Florida around Tallahassee and Jacksonville, as well as Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, into Friday. In addition, a few isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the Florida Panhandle from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The forecast track of Tropical Storm Mindy shows it crossing Florida overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Mindy is expected to emerge over the western Atlantic by midday Thursday, where environmental conditions appear unfavorable for additional development, the Hurricane Center said. Mindy is the 13th named storm of the busy 2021 Atlantic Hurricane season. On average, the 13th named storm typically doesn't form until October 24, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. While Mindy will be a short-lived storm, Hurricane Larry continues to churn in the Atlantic Ocean. Larry will graze Bermuda on Thursday, then take aim on Newfoundland, Canada, by late Friday and into Saturday. Waves from Larry are impacting the beaches along the East Coast with "life-threatening surf and rip currents," the Hurricane Center said.
Dangerous swells produced by Hurricane "Larry" to affect much of the western Atlantic beaches -- Hurricane "Larry" is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, September 9, 2021, and then near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night, September 10 (LT) as it transitions to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda. Larry is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 967 hPa, as of 09:00 UTC on September 8.1 Its center is located about 970 km (605 miles) and the system is moving NW at a speed of 17 km/h (10 mph). This general motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a turn toward the NNW and N with an increase in forward speed on Thursday and a faster NE motion by Friday. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas today, NHC forecaster Brown noted.2 Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week, NHC said.The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, September 9 but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of Larry and updates to the forecast. This is a large system with hurricane-force winds extending up to 110 km (70 miles) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds up to 295 km (185 miles).
Hurricane "Larry" forecast to move over SE Newfoundland, Canada - Hurricane "Larry" is expected to pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, September 10, 2021, and then move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight, bringing hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall.
- Larry is forecast to move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.1
- Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials.
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour.
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove; and from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island.
At 09:00 UTC on September 10, the center of Hurricane "Larry" was located about 660 km (410 miles) NNE of Bermuda and 1 230 km (765 miles) SW of Cape Race, Newfoundland, Canada. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h (85 mph) and minimum central pressure of 968 hPa.2Larry is moving toward the north-northeast at a speed near 43 km/h (26 mph).A turn to the northeast with a further increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight, NHC said.Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland.A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland.Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas today.Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 25 - 50 mm (1 to 2 inches) of rain.Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is now forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Greenland by the end of the weekend.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 km (90 miles) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390 km (240 miles).
Hurricane "Olaf" hits Mexico, leaving 200 000 customers without power - Hurricane "Olaf" made landfall very near San Jose del Cabo, Baja California Sur, Mexico at around 03:20 UTC on September 10, 2021, with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h (100 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 976 hPa, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale. The storm was moving NW at 19 km/h (12 mph).1 While only minimum damage has been reported, the Federal Electricity Commission reported that nearly 192 000 customers in Los Cabos and La Paz were left without power. 30 percent had electricity restored within 12 hours. The ISSSTE General Hospital in La Paz lost power, provoking concern among people whose family members are receiving treatment in the facility.2 In the Los Cabos area, numerous buildings, including the IMSS No. 6 Hospital in San José del Cabo were affected by flash flooding. Road access between San José del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas was cut off due to flooding and fallen trees and utility poles. Olaf became a remnant low at 09:00 UTC on September 11, 175 km (110 miles) WSW of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.
Typhoon "Conson" (Jolina) makes landfall in the Philippines, moving toward capital Manila - Tropical Storm "Conson" -- known as Jolina in the Philippines -- formed at 06:00 UTC on September 6, 2021, as the 13th named storm of the 2021 Pacific typhoon season. At 15:00 UTC (23:00 Philippine Standard Time) on September 6, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded it to a Severe Tropical Storm. According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the system rapidly intensified into a typhoon at that time and made its first landfall in Hernani, Eastern Samar with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) near the center, and gusts of up to 150 km/h (95 mph). It was moving WNW at 15 km/h (9 mph). The storm made another landfall at 18:30 UTC (02:30 LT, September 7) in Daram, Samar, and another one at 19:40 UTC (03:40 LST) in Santo Niño, Samar. At 22:30 UTC (06:30 LT) Conson made the fourth landfall in Almagro, Samar. In the next 24 hours, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains are forecast over Masbate, Leyte, Biliran, Samar, Northern Samar, Sorsogon, Albay, Catanduanes, Camarines provinces, Southern Quezon, Romblon, and Marinduque, PAGASA said.1 Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains are expected over Mindoro Provinces and the rest of CALABARZON and Visayas. Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps. Damaging gale-force to storm-force winds are likely to occur within any of the areas where TCWS #2 is in effect. This may bring generally light to moderate damage to structures and vegetation. Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale conditions) with occasional gusts will be experienced in areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is in effect. . The threat of coastal inundation due to storm surge of up to 0.5 - 1 m (1.6 - 3.3 feet) continues for several coastal localities of Biliran, Sorsogon, Samar, and Masbate which may pose threat to life and property. In addition, coastal areas of localities under TCWS, especially those at #2 and #3 may experience coastal flooding due to hazardous surf conditions. The system will bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5 m / 8 to 16 feet) over the seaboards of areas where TCWS #2 and #3 are in effect. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters. Mariners without the proper experience should immediately seek safe harbor.
Super Typhoon "Chanthu" threatens extreme Northern Luzon, landfall expected in Taiwan - Category 5 Super Typhoon "Chanthu" -- known as Kiko in the Philippines -- is forecast to pass over extreme Northern Luzon, Philippines on September 10, 2021, and then turn toward Taiwan where landfall is expected on September 12. At 09:00 UTC September 10, the center of Super Typhoon "Chanthu" was located about 824 km (512 miles) south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Its maximum 10-minute sustained winds were 195 km/h (120 mph), with gusts up to 280 km/h (175 mph) while the maximum 1-minute sustained winds were 270 km/h (165 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure was 920 hPa, and the system was moving north-northwest at 17 km/h (10 mph). "Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a dense, compact system with a vertically stacked 28 km (17 miles) diameter eye," JTWC said.1 "Chanthu has maintained its compact structure while completing another intensification period under highly favorable conditions. However, as it continues to move northwest, it is expected to lose the radial outflow that accelerated its development earlier. Therefore, significant intensification is unlikely within the next 24 hours despite low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the Luzon Strait." Landfall in Taiwan is expected around 09:00 UTC on September 12, JTWC forecasters said. After passing through Taiwan, increasing vertical wind shear will reduce the system to 100 km/h (65 mph) by 09:00 UTC on September 15. "Numerical models are in overall tight agreement, with consensus moving slightly to the east of Taiwan, reducing land interaction effects. After passing by Taiwan, track guidance spreads out to 440 km (270 miles) by September 13," JTWC said.
Floods cause 'catastrophic devastation' in White Nile, Sudan - Severe floods affecting southern White Nile State, Sudan from September 4 to 6, 2021 affected 53 villages or more than 61 000 people, including 35 000 South Sudanese refugees in Alganaa area.Local authorities said the floods caused 'catastrophic devastation' since the beginning of the week.The mainstream of the Nile at Atbara has risen since yesterday, but at this time it's still almost 1 m (3.3 feet) below 2020 flood levels.1The humanitarian situation is described as 'catastrophic and beyond the capacity of the locality.'The Executive Director of Al-Jabalain Locality Al-Walid Amir Bahar said that more than 53 villages and herder settlements in the SE part of Jouda are experiencing difficult situations due to torrential rains and floods which led to the collapse of buildings, damage to agricultural areas, and death of livestock.Al-Walid pointed out that the locality mobilized all human and material resources to evacuate families surrounded by floods water.Moreover, the Executive Dictator of the locality gave assurances that relief convoys from Zakat Chamber, UNHCR and SRCS are heading to the site of flooded areas to support the affected families.2 Sudan’s National Council for Civil Defense reported on August 24 that at least 43 people lost their lives while 3 838 homes were destroyed and another 8 514 damaged as a result of heavy rains and flooding affecting the country since the end of July 2021 when the rainy season started.3
Beijing's flood season ends with 70 percent above average precipitation, China --Beijing's 2021 flood season (June 1 to August 31) ended with the highest average precipitation in the recent 20 years.The average precipitation of the city reached 627.4 mm (24.7 inches) during this year's flood season, which is approximately 70% more than average.1In addition, the city recorded 62 instances of precipitation, representing an increase of 30% percent compared to 2020. The city also had the rainiest July since 1951, with 400.4 mm (15.7 inches).
In the Arctic, Less Sea Ice and More Snow on Land Are Pushing Cold Extremes to Eastern North America - New research shows that Arctic climate changes during the next few weeks may determine if and when the Eastern United States gets another extreme cold wave this coming winter. Since the 1980s, Arctic sea ice extent has been dropping sharply, while the extent of land covered by snow in Siberia during autumn has increased. Those changes have combined to more frequently contort the “polar vortex” of high-altitude Arctic winds into a dumbbell shape that increases the potential for severe winter weather outbreaks like February’s Texas freeze, the study, published in Science Thursday, shows.Arctic sea ice this year is once again near a record low, and medium range forecasts call for relatively cold and snowy conditions in Siberia, potentially setting the stage for renewed winter extremes at lower latitudes.Disruptions of the polar vortex—a belt of strong, high altitude winds usually circling the central Arctic—have become more frequent in the last 40 years, the new research found. In the study, the researchers write that the lack of sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas and heavier snowfall over Siberia combine to build a wave of high pressure in the atmosphere between Northern Europe and the Ural Mountains, along with low pressure over East Asia.The extent, positioning and timing of sea ice and snow cover in the Arctic has changed since the region started warming rapidly, and the new pattern, shaped by global warming, intensifies the waves. If their rising energy is absorbed by the upper atmosphere, it’s more probable that the circulation above the Arctic will remain stable. But sometimes if that energy bounces downward off the polar vortex it distorts the vortex, pushing one end of the cold dumbbell over Siberia and the other toward the eastern half of the United States. Why that energy is sometimes reflected downward remains one of the big climate mysteries, said study author Judah Cohen, a Boston-based climate researcher and director of seasonal forecasting with Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER). But how the process can drive winter extremes was shown in February 2021, when bitter Arctic air swept southward across Texas and even into Mexico.
Another glacial outburst flood begins at the Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland - Another glacial outburst flood (jökulhlaup) is in progress at the Vatnajökull ice cap since September 5, 2021. Yesterday's flood started at the Eastern Skaftárketill cauldron and follows another flood from the Western Skaftárketill which began on September 1. This will significantly add to current flood levels in the Skaftá river, the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) said. "The people who live here and travel in this area know precisely where the Skaftá glacial outburst floods have an effect. Roads in the area could close, and a great deal of silt and mud could spread around the area and be carried with the wind once the area dries."Measurements show the surface of the cauldron has subsided 1 m (3.3 feet) between 23:00 UTC on September 4 and 12:45 UTC on September 5.Maximum discharge during floods from the Eastern cauldron has previously reached 3 000 m3/s (106 000 feet3 per second) but the last flood in 2018 peaked at 2 000 m3/s (70 600 feet3per second). If compared to the flood in 2018 the first hydrological station will see the first signs of floodwater in the morning of September 6. The event follows another glacier outburst flood from the Western Skaftárketill which began on September 1.2A flood from the eastern cauldron has not occurred since 2018, and this one is expected to be about as large as that year’s flood. The flood in 2015 was considerably larger and caused more damage. Glacial outbursts in the Skaftá river originate in a geothermal area under depressions in the ice cap of the Vatnajökull glacier called Skaftárkatlar. These depressions are formed when geothermal heat melts enough ice to create an outburst flood. When the outburst takes place, the meltwater first flows a distance of 40 km (25 miles) under the ice cap and then a distance of 28 km (17 miles) along the river bed of Skaftá river, before reaching Sveinstindur mountain. It then takes about 10 hours for floodwaters to reach the Ring Road near Ásar by Eldvatn lake. It is important that locals and people traveling in the area are aware of possible hazards3 and conditions there:
- In the next few days, it is possible that Skaftá will overflow roads that lie close to the river's pathway.
- High values of H2S are expected near the margin of Skaftárjökul and people are advised to stay at a safe distance from the river and the margins of nearby glaciers.
- Crevasses will form rapidly around the cauldron, therefore people traveling on Vatnajökull ice-cap should stay away from the cauldrons and margins of glaciers where floodwater is emerging.
Eruption continues at underwater volcano near Mayotte, Indian Ocean - Eruption at a newly-discovered underwater volcano, located about 50 - 60 km (31 - 37 miles) east of Mayotte, Indian Ocean continues with increased seismicity and associated deformations. During the month of August, REVOSIMA detected 361 volcano-tectonic earthquakes detected, 198 long-period earthquakes, and 10 very long-period earthquakes. Of those, only 2 were felt by residents of Mayotte -- M4.1 on August 3 and M3.8 on August 26.1 The main seismic activity is still concentrated 5 to 15 km (3 - 9 miles) east of Petite-Terre, at depths of 20 to 50 km (12 - 31 miles), REVOSIMA reports. Surface movements measured by GPS stations in Mayotte since July 1, 2018, indicate: a) an overall movement of the GPS stations from Mayotte to the east of approximately 21 to 25 cm (8 - 10 inches), b) subsidence of approximately 10 to 19 cm (4 - 7.5 inches) depending on their location on the island. Since the end of 2020, deformations have become negligible. The volume of erupted magma is estimated at approximately 6.55 km3 (1.6 miles3) as of April 2021.
Asteroid 2021 RS2 to fly by Earth at an exceptionally close distance of 0.06 LD - closest in 2021 - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2021 RS2 will fly by Earth at a distance of just 0.06 LD / 0.00015 AU (22 440 km / 13 945 miles) from the center of our planet at 07:28 UTC on September 8, 2021.This is the 81st known asteroid to fly by Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year.It is also the closest flyby of the year and the 21st closest on record, sharing the place with 2021 CZ3 which flew past us on February 9, 2021. It's worth noting that two closest flybys on record took place in 2020 -- 2020 QG on August 16 and 2020 VT4 on November 13.This flyby will be followed by 2021 RP2 at 13:50 UTC today at a distance of 0.31 LD and 2021 RQ2 at 00:44 UTC on September 9 at a distance of 0.49 LD. 2021 RS2 was first observed at Mt. Lemmon Survey on September 7, one day before the close approach to our planet.The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 2.3 and 5.1 m (7.5 - 16.7 feet).The close approach will take place at 07:28 UTC ± 00:04 at a speed (relative to the Earth) of 16.6 km/s.
Asteroid 2021 RG6 to fly by Earth at 0.22 LD A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2021 RG6 will fly past Earth at a distance of 0.22 LD / 0.00057 AU (85 270 km / 52 980 miles) from the center of our planet at 15:31 UTC on September 11, 2021. Since the start of the year, our sky surveys have identified a total of 86 known asteroids to fly by Earth within 1 lunar distance. Today's flyby comes just 3 days after the closest NEO approach of the year.1 2021 RG62 belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 4.4 and 9.8 m (14 - 32 feet). It was first discovered at ATLAH-HKO, Haleakala, Hawaii on September 10, one day before its close approach.
Asteroid 2021 RR5 to fly by Earth at 0.20 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2021 RR5 will fly by Earth at a distance of 0.20 LD / 0.00053 AU (79 300 km / 49 250 miles) at 17:44 UTC on September 12, 2021. This is the 86th known asteroid to fly by Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year. The flyby comes just 4 days after the closest NEO approach of the year.1 2021 RR52 was first observed at Mt. Lemmon Survey, Arizona on September 8, 2021, 4 days before its close approach. It belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 5.6 and 13 m (18 - 42 feet).
Many measures of Earth’s health are at worst levels on record, NOAA finds -- A fatal virus and a massive economic downturn did not stop planet-warming gases in the atmosphere last year from rising to their highest levels in human history, researchers say. Barely a year after the coronavirus grounded planes, shuttered factories and brought road traffic to a standstill, the associated drop in carbon emissions is all but undetectable to scientists studying our air.While humanity grappled with the deadliest pandemic in a century, many metrics of the planet’s health showed catastrophic decline in 2020. Average global temperatures rivaled the hottest. Mysterious sources of methane sent atmospheric concentrations of the gas spiking to unprecedented highs. Sea levels were the highest on record; fires ravaged the American West; and locusts swarmed across East Africa.These findings may sound familiar, coming on the heels of a similarly dire assessment from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And they echo NOAA’s report from last year, which also detailed record-high greenhouse gas levels and unprecedented warmth. “It’s a record that keeps playing over and over again,” said Jessica Blunden, a NOAA climate scientist who has co-led “State of the Climate” reports for 11 years. “Things are getting more and more intense every year because emissions are happening every year.” Sometimes Blunden feels like a doctor whose patient won’t listen to health advice, watching a mild illness morph into a chronic disease. By this point, the patient practically has multiple organ failure, “and still they keep eating those Cheeto puffs,” she said. Without consistent, concerted efforts to reduce emissions from burning fossil fuels and other human activities, scientists warn, Earth’s condition will continue to deteriorate.
Over 200 medical journals urge climate change action over health risk - Global warming is affecting people's health — and world leaders need to address the climate crisis now as it can't wait until the COVID-19 pandemic is over, editors of over 230 medical journals warned Sunday evening. This is the first time so many publications have come together to issue such a joint statement to world leaders, underscoring the severity of the situation — with the Journal of the American Medical Association, the Lancet and the British Medical Journal among those issuing the warning.Ahead of this November's UN general assembly and the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, the journals warned: "The greatest threat to global public health is the continued failure of world leaders to keep the global temperature rise below 1.5C and to restore nature.""Health is already being harmed by global temperature increases and the destruction of the natural world," states the editorial, which also ran in the New England Journal of Medicine, the International Nursing Review, the Chinese Science Bulletin and Brazil's Revista de Saude Publica."Despite the world's necessary preoccupation with COVID-19, we cannot wait for the pandemic to pass to rapidly reduce emissions."World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement ahead of the editorial's publication that the "risks posed by climate change could dwarf those of any single disease.""We will end the COVID-19 pandemic, but there's no vaccine for the climate crisis," Tedros added. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said last month global warming could reach 1.5°C (2.7°F) compared to pre-industrial levels by 2030.The editorial reports that heat-related mortality among people older than 65 has risen by over 50% in the past 20 years. Global warming has also impacted farming production, "hampering efforts to reduce undernutrition," the journal editors-in-chief write."Higher temperatures have brought increased dehydration and renal function loss, dermatological malignancies, tropical infections, adverse mental health outcomes, pregnancy complications, allergies, and cardiovascular and pulmonary morbidity and mortality." "The science is unequivocal: a global increase of 1.5° C above the pre-industrial average and the continued loss of biodiversity risk catastrophic harm to health that will be impossible to reverse," the editorial warns.
220 Health Journals Call for Urgent Action on Climate Crisis - Asserting that humanity "cannot wait for the pandemic to pass" before acting to rapidly reduce carbon emissions fueling the climate emergency, more than 220 health journals around the world on Sunday published an unprecedented joint editorial calling for "urgent action to keep average global temperature increases below 1.5°C, halt the destruction of nature, and protect health."The editorial — which appears in journals including The Lancet, The New England Journal of Medicine, The Chinese Science Bulletin, The East African Medical Journal, Brazil's Revista de Saude Publica, and The National Medical Journal of India — was published ahead of next month's United Nations Biodiversity Conference in Kunming, China and November's U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP 26) in Glasgow."The science is unequivocal; a global increase of 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average and the continued loss of biodiversity risk catastrophic harm to health that will be impossible to reverse," the authors write. "Despite the world's necessary preoccupation with Covid-19, we cannot wait for the pandemic to pass to rapidly reduce emissions."Noting that "health is already being harmed by global temperature increases and the destruction of the natural world," the editorial continues: The risks to health of increases above 1.5°C are now well established. Indeed, no temperature rise is 'safe.' In the past 20 years, heat-related mortality among people older than 65 years has increased by more than 50%. Higher temperatures have brought increased dehydration and renal function loss, dermatological malignancies, tropical infections, adverse mental health outcomes, pregnancy complications, allergies, and cardiovascular and pulmonary morbidity and mortality. Harms disproportionately affect the most vulnerable, including children, older populations, ethnic minorities, poorer communities, and those with underlying health problems. Global heating is also contributing to the decline in global yield potential for major crops, falling by 1.8% to 5.6% since 1981; this, together with the effects of extreme weather and soil depletion, is hampering efforts to reduce undernutrition. Thriving ecosystems are essential to human health, and the widespread destruction of nature, including habitats and species, is eroding water and food security and increasing the chance of pandemics. "The consequences of the environmental crisis fall disproportionately on those countries and communities that have contributed least to the problem and are least able to mitigate the harms," the authors write. "Yet no country, no matter how wealthy, can shield itself from these impacts," which will include "more conflict, food insecurity, forced displacement, and zoonotic disease."
A Climate Disaster Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes—And Politicians Still Refuse to Take Action -On August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall off the coast of Louisiana, triggering a slow-moving disaster as floodwaters breached the levees around New Orleans. Nearly 2,000 peoplewere killed over several weeks, hundreds of thousands of homes were destroyed, and the city was left in ruins. Environmental scientists warned that Katrina was a taste of what was in store for the Gulf Coast region if climate change continued unchecked. But greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise, and exactly 16 years after Katrina,Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana as a Category 4 storm with winds of 150 miles per hour and up to 10 inches of rain, leaving more than 1 million households in Louisiana without power. The remnants of the storm traveled up the East Coast with flash floods killing at least 15 people in New York and damaging homes and public transport infrastructure. While some media coverage celebrated the fact that the post-Katrina levees around New Orleans remained intact, the real story is that Ida’s behavior fits the profile of storms fueled by a rapidly changing climate, and no levees will be strong enough to provide enough protection against such relentless hurricanes year after year. “The worst effects of climate change are here now, and we have to build the systems and infrastructure to be able to deal with this,” says Akuno. But he admits that “Whatever we can amass is only going to scratch the surface of the overall need, and there has to be broader systemic change in order to deal with these crises in the future.”Satellite images show the shocking extent of devastation in the Gulf Coast from Hurricane Ida. Whether or not President Joe Biden’s administration responds more efficiently to the needs of Ida’s survivors compared to Bush’s response during Katrina remains to be seen. But government responses to climate-related disasters, while necessary, are part of the “downstream” solutions that center on the symptoms of climate change.The multiple “upstream” solutions to climate disasters include building resiliency before storms hit, and, most importantly, require swiftly mitigating the causes of climate change. Few political leaders since the 2005 Katrina disaster have been willing to take strong action on that critical front.At the same time that residents of Louisiana, Mississippi, and New York are facing the horrors of damaged homes, flooded streets, and no power, Indigenous communities in the Midwest are fighting against a pipeline that will transport climate-change-causing fuels across their lands. The Enbridge Line 3 pipeline is being upgraded in order to transport tar sands—which are considered the “dirtiest fuel left on the planet”—across pristine lands where the Anishinaabe people grow wild rice.The state of Minnesota’s estimate put the social and climate impacts of the completed project at$287 billion over 30 years. The last thing our rapidly changing climate needs is yet another oil pipeline, and yet few leaders appear willing to stand in the way of fossil fuel company profits.
Has Congress forgotten the urgent importance of the climate crisis? - Focusing on other issues may be smart politics, but it has detrimental ramifications for our fight against a rapidly heating planet. For decades, I have dedicated myself to studying the deterioration of our Earth’s systems. I’ve co-authored various climate emergency reports with some of the world’s leading climate scientists to compile findings and offer recommendations that are comprehensive and effective. For decades, scientists have been waving the warning flag — urging governments and elected officials to do something about the greatest challenge humankind has ever faced. And for decades, those governments and elected officials have taken incremental steps or ignored the problem altogether. Now, we find ourselves out of time. As noted in our most recent scientific report, there has been a surge in climate-related disasters, including floods, heatwaves, wildfires and strong hurricanes. A growing body of evidence shows that we are getting close to or have already passed critical tipping points associated with the Earth system. Notably, 2020 was the second-hottest year in history, and the five hottest years on record all occurred since 2015. Ocean acidification is near an all-time record. The Brazilian Amazon rainforest reached a 12-year high of 1.1 million hectares deforested last year, representing a massive loss of carbon stocks. The list goes on. Many were hopeful that the COVID-19 pandemic would provide the silver lining of blunting CO2 emissions, which did happen in 2020, but those declines are already a thing of the past. Projected estimates of 2021 for CO2 emissions show us blowing past a return to normal, with carbon dioxide concentration already reaching 416 parts per million in April. That marks one of the highest monthly global average concentrations ever recorded since record keeping began. Notice how all of these findings are punctuated by “highest ever” or “ever recorded.” That’s not some coincidence. This is what happens when you conduct “business as usual” in the face of calamity. This is the natural outcome one should expect when society focuses on short-term gains over long-term solutions. For those who think that radical investments in climate mitigation are expensive now, just wait and see how much climate change will cost us in the long run if we keep trying to handle it on the backend. For those who bemoan record-shattering heatwaves in the Pacific Northwest, get used to it — 2020 and 2021 will likely be among the coolest years of this century. For those in the American West who dread wildfires, be prepared for megafires likely to be an annual occurrence. For those in the South and on the East Coast who fear hurricane season, expect more Category 4 and Category 5 storms to be the new norm. These are the challenges that President Biden and America’s elected officials face. So, I have one simple question for those currently running our country: What about this moment doesn’t scream “urgent” to you?
Democrats propose new funding for climate, weather research - House Democrats on a key congressional panel are hoping to secure at least $2.6 billion in government funding for weather and climate change research at federal agencies. The effort comes from Democratic members of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee who are preparing to advance the panel's $45.5 billion share of Democrats’ $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill that includes some of President Biden's biggest legislative priorities. The measures being proposed by Democrats on the committee would devote $1.2 billion for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) programs, including forecasting events such as tornadoes, droughts, hurricanes and wildfires and better understanding the effects of climate change on the ocean. It also would put an additional $765 million toward NOAA research into climate adaptation and resilience. At the Environmental Protection Agency, the proposal would put $264 million toward climate-related research and development activities, and at NASA, it would put $388 million toward similar programs. The spending proposal’s release comes as climate change is once again in the spotlight after Hurricane Ida hit various parts of the country, causing widespread damage and power outages as well as dozens of deaths in states such as Louisiana and New York. Other provisions in the committee's bill would set aside about $1.2 billion for advancing nuclear fusion. It also would allocate $1.1 billion toward demonstration projects for wind, solar, geothermal and water energy as well as vehicle, bioenergy and building technologies. But the future of the overall spending bill is uncertain after key Senate swing vote Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) recently called for a “pause” on the legislation, setting the stage for a potential clash with progressives.
Grid experts grapple with 'resilience' in Ida's wake - The widespread destruction left by Hurricane Ida after the storm plowed into Louisiana and headed up the East Coast made one thing clear: There’s more work to be done in building a resilient power grid. But how might solutions differ from New Orleans to New York, especially as climate change scrambles conventional wisdom about when and where extreme weather strikes? “The nature of the risk has changed,” said Saurabh Amin, an associate professor with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Ida made landfall Aug. 29 as a Category 4 hurricane and is responsible for at least 15 deaths in Louisiana and 50 more across the Northeast. President Biden, who traveled to storm-ravaged New Jersey and New York yesterday with a contingent of federal officials including climate change adviser Gina McCarthy, said scientists have warned for decades that climate change would bring more intense storms. "We’re living through it now," he said at a briefing with state and local emergency management officials in Hillsborough Township, N.J. "We can’t turn it back, but we can prevent it from getting worse." Many electric companies nationwide have taken steps to shore up their grids. But when the lights go out, fingerpointing starts: Power providers haven’t done enough; people aren’t prepared; the nation has ignored climate change. Changing a massive, complicated structure that delivers electricity involves a clash of powerful priorities that include keeping the grid reliable and safe, making sure electricity bills stay stable, and using cleaner fuels. The key is to prepare for a future when the worst-case scenario may look different than the past, said Jeff Dagle, a researcher at the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory who has studied grid resilience in Puerto Rico and Louisiana. “Personally, I’m 54 years old, and in my lifetime, I’ve seen three one-in-100-year storms,” Dagle said.
A moving target: Hardening our infrastructure against climate change -- As fires continue to rage in the American West, as swaths of Louisiana including New Orleans remain without electricity as a result of Hurricane Ida, and as flood damage resulting from the remnants of that hurricane continue to dog New York City and the Northeast, we are already hearing calls for "hardening" our infrastructure. While hardening infrastructure seems like a good idea, there are two major obstacles. One is obvious: It is much easier to harden infrastructure when building it from scratch. Upgrading any piece of existing infrastructure means working within the limitations of that infrastructure and replacing and adding parts in ways that are less expensive but also less ideal than rebuilding. The second obstacle may not be so obvious: Climate, the primary reason for hardening, is a moving target. The planet has not simply reached a new stable state. Rather, climate change itself is changing, that is, it is getting worse over time. First, the rate of human-caused emissions of climate destabilizing carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, continues to rise. We are adding more carbon dioxide every day at ever higher rates. Second, that trend has resulted incontinuously rising concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Third, there is a substantial lag between the time climate warming gases are released into the atmosphere and the effects are seen on the planet's surface. Even if humans halted all greenhouse gas emissions today, climate warming would continue for between 25 and 50 years. So, for those whose job it is to harden the infrastructure the question arises: How much do we harden it? We cannot know in advance exactly how much hardening will be sufficient to prevent the extraordinary damage we're already seeing from happening in the future. Of course, the more we harden our infrastructure, the more expensive per foot or mile the hardening becomes. No matter how much we decide to harden our systems, the cost will be enormous. If we decide to hurry that retrofit along by front-loading our efforts, it will mean not only allocating vast sums of money that cannot be spent elsewhere, but also dramatically expanding the people and equipment available to do the work. Finding and training the extra people needed and manufacturing the equipment and supplies required for accelerated hardening will take time and likely create bottlenecks and delays that frustrate our timetables. There is also the problem that climate change is not a linear process. Climate-induced wind, water and heat-related challenges may not simply grow gradually and predictably, but rather increase at a more rapid rate than they are doing today.Hardening our infrastructure against climate change will be fantastically expensive if we mean to do it in an effective way. But hardening it against such an uncertain and constantly changing future may result in huge expenditures that are nevertheless of little or no avail against the ever increasing power of climate change to inflict damage on our civilization.
Environmental groups call for postponement of climate talks - A coalition of environmental groups has called for a pivotal climate conference to be postponed amid concern that many of those most affected by global warming won’t be able to attend because of the continuing threat from COVID-19. (AP) — A coalition of environmental groups has called for a pivotal climate conference to be postponed amid concern that many of those most affected by global warming won’t be able to attend because of the continuing threat from COVID-19. Campaigners said Tuesday that organizers hadn’t done enough to ensure broad participation in the event by providing access to vaccines and defraying the rising cost of travel for people from developing nations, many of which are subject to British government travel restrictions. The UN climate summit, known as COP26, is scheduled for Oct. 31-Nov. 12 in Scotland. “Our concern is that those countries most deeply affected by the climate crisis and those countries suffering from the lack of support by rich nations in providing vaccines will be left out of the talks,’’ said Tasneem Essop, executive director of Climate Action Network, which includes 1,500 groups in 130 countries. “There has always been an inherent power imbalance within the U.N. climate talks and this is now compounded by the health crisis.’’ But the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a group of 48 countries that are most at risk from climate change, later said an in-person summit must take place as scheduled to ensure the world responds to a threat “unparalleled in human history.” The tussle over postponement comes just weeks after an international panel of climate scientists issued a stark warning to world leaders, saying time was running out to avert the worst effects of climate change. COP26 is seen as a critical step in the drive to persuade governments, industry and investors around the world to make binding commitments on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The meeting was originally scheduled to be held last year, but it was postponed due to the pandemic. “Clearly, every country needs to be given the opportunity to participate in COP26, but a further postponement at this stage could have very serious consequences by undermining the momentum for action on climate change,” said Bob Ward, policy director for the Grantham Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in London. The Climate Action Network, which includes groups such as Friends of the Earth and Amnesty International, called for postponement, saying organizers haven’t done enough to ensure broad participation. Many of those countries are subject to British government restrictions that require travelers to undergo expensive testing and quarantines before entering the country. But the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a grouping of the countries that are most at risk from climate change, said the summit should go ahead as planned in hopes of rebuilding international cooperating on combatting climate change. “COP26 must happen in-person in October-November 2021 with robust COVID-19 measures ….” The group said in a statement. “This is the most important meeting for the future of the planet and it cannot wait.” The British government which is hosting the event rejected calls for postponement, saying leaders must tackle the issue of climate change without further delay.
Turning Hog Waste into Biogas: Green Solution or Greenwashing? - Long before Duplin and Sampson counties became the epicenter of North Carolina’s hog farming industry, Roberta McCalop’s family and their neighbors would sit on their porches, picnic in the shade of massive oak trees, and play games in the yard. But ever since industrial hog farms began swamping this region in eastern North Carolina three decades ago, those days are long gone. On a sweltering summer morning, McCalop leans against her car and points to the grain storage facility across the road — rising several stories above the flat fields like a mini City of Oz — as a symbol of the invasion. Behind the silos, and largely hidden by tall rows of corn, sits one of North Carolina’s 2,100 “concentrated animal feeding operations,” or CAFOS, many of them located in the eastern part of the state in low-income communities of color. Deafening noise from tractor-trailers speeding along Highway 24 night and day, to and from the hog farms, makes conversation difficult, while the smell from the hog farms just a football field away — a nauseating mix of rotten eggs and decomposition — arrives seemingly out of nowhere. During the summer months, residents are often forced to stay inside with the air conditioning on full blast to escape the stench. Now, McCalop, a media assistant in the Duplin County schools, has another reason to be concerned about the ever-encroaching agribusinesses. The pork-producing giant Smithfield is moving forward with the $30 million Grady Road project to convert swine waste from 19 hog farms into biogas. Methane captured from the waste pits will be transported through a 30-mile pipeline and processed in a new anaerobic digester system before being injected into an existing natural gas pipeline. The facility will be constructed within a few hundred yards of the McCalops, potentially exposing the family to even more air pollutants, including ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, and various volatile organic compounds. Smithfield touts this biogas scheme as a green energy solution that should be welcomed by the community, but critics say it is a classic case of greenwashing, intended to burnish the image of a company that has for years been the source of rampant water, soil, and air pollution in the region. Smithfield and its partner in the biogas venture, the utility Dominion Energy, say that enough biogas will be produced at the Grady Road project to power 3,500 homes. Meanwhile, the vast hog CAFOS — nearly all of which are contracted to produce pork for Smithfield Foods — will still generate 10 billion gallons of hog waste a year. This vile slurry of feces and urine, which turns pink from bacteria, is stored in massive, unlined lagoons and sprayed onto feed crops as fertilizer, fouling the air and polluting groundwater. Residents say the CAFOs have turned this once-quiet part of the state into an industrial zone.
BP Buys NatGas Supplies Derived from Cow Manure -- Oil major BP Plc is stepping up its involvement in the production of natural gas from organic waste with an agreement to take supplies derived from cow manure in Iowa. BP will obtain the gas -- or what the fossil fuel industry calls renewable natural gas -- from Gevo Inc.’s project in northwest Iowa and sell it in California, Gevo said in a statement Monday. RNG production is a relatively new source of natural gas, with manure-based capacity increasing last year by 14%, according to BloombergNEF. BP, along with Chevron Corp. and Kinder Morgan Inc., is among companies attracted to RNG because it offers lower emissions than some other fuels, while also utilizing methane that would otherwise escape into the atmosphere. Methane is the second-biggest contributor to global warming, after carbon dioxide. Critics say such efforts are unlikely to make much difference and will only delay the energy transition. Gevo says its Iowa project will be completed early next year and produce 355,000 million British thermal units of gas on an annual basis. It’s expected to generate $9 million to $16 million in cash per year for Gevo in late 2022. BP announced in 2018 a $25 million trash-to-gas project with Republic Services Inc. And in December, it agreed to form a 50-50 RNG joint venture with Clean Energy Fuels Corp. The gas produced by the Gevo project will be sold in California under agreements between BP and Clean Energy Fuels., which operates RNG fueling infrastructure, to take advantage of the state’s low carbon fuel standard program.
Big Oil’s ‘Wokewashing’ Is the New Climate Science Denialism -- ExxonMobil has been touting its commitment to "reducing carbon emissions with innovative energy solutions". Chevron would like to remind you it is keeping the lights on during this dark time. BP is going #NetZero, but is also very proud of the "digital innovations" on its new, enormous oil drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile Shell insists it really supports women in traditionally male-dominated jobs.A casual social media user might get the impression the fossil fuel industry views itself as a social justice warrior, fighting on behalf of the poor, the marginalized, and women – at least based on its marketing material in recent years.These campaigns fall into what a handful of sociologists and economists call "discourses of delay". While oil and gas companies have a long track record of denying climate change, even after their own scientists repeatedly warned of the harm caused by burning fossil fuels, now the industry's messaging is far more subtle and in many ways more effective than outright climate science denial.By downplaying the urgency of the climate crisis, the industry has new tools to delay efforts to curb fossil fuel emissions. And worse yet: even industry critics haven't fully caught up to this new approach."If you just focus on climate denial, then all of this other stuff is missed," explains Robert Brulle, an environmental sociologist and visiting professor at Brown University.Brulle, who published a peer-reviewed study in 2019 that analyzed major oil corporations' advertising spending over a 30-year period, says the "lion's share" of ad dollars were directed not toward denial, or even toward the industry's products, but toward pro-fossil fuel propaganda – campaigns that remind people over and over again about all the great things oil companies do, how dependent we are on fossil fuels, and how integral the industry is to society. "They're spending probably five or 10 times more on all this corporate promotion advertising," he says. "And yet the climate movement seems to only focus on the science denial part." Oil companies stopped pushing overt climate denial more than a decade ago. And while conspiracy theories claiming climate change is a hoax may surface occasionally, they are no longer an effective strategy.Instead, the fossil fuel industry, utilities and the various trade groups, politicians and think tanks that carry water for both, have pivoted to messages that acknowledge the problem, but downplay its severity and the urgency for solutions. Instead companies are overstating the industry's progress toward addressing climate change.
A biofuel plant in the Catskills? Hughes Energy says plant will fight climate change – A Yonkers-based company is attempting to build a plant in the Catskill Park to convert food waste and other trash into paper products and “biofuel pellets” that could replace coal. The plant would be the first in the U.S. to use the technology, which Hughes Energy says will help New York reach its ambitious climate goals by diverting more than 176,000 tons of garbage from landfills each year. But the premier environmental group in the region is wary of the proposal, and Hughes Energy principals were met with anger during two public information sessions held on the project. Hughes Energy CEO Dane McSpedon said the company’s leadership wants to improve the environment, and the facility would be the first of many helping the country better deal with municipal waste. Diverting organic waste from landfills would primarily help the environment by reducing methane emissions, McSpedon said. Organic materials decomposing in nature produce carbon dioxide, but there is insufficient oxygen in landfills for this process to occur, so instead, the matter lets off methane gas. Methane gas, when initially released into the atmosphere, has 84 times the heat-trapping ability as carbon dioxide. And 17 percent of methane released into the atmosphere in the U.S. is from landfills, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Much of the controversy springs from the project’s proposed location: the Catskill Park, less than 2,000 feet from the Schoharie Creek, which feeds the reservoir system supplying most of New York City and 1 million people in the Hudson Valley with drinking water. McSpedon said residents should trust the proposed plant. “We’ve hired a lot of very expensive, but useful, environmental engineers and other people to help us to make sure that everything is literally done to the highest level on all areas…because the single most important thing to us is that this is done in the right way, and a quality way,” he said. The plant is far from a done deal. The state Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), which manages the Catskill Park, is leading the review of the project and is in the process of determining whether it could have enough impact on its surroundings to require a full environmental review, which can take months or years.
Polluters Are Trying to Ensure They're Never Held Responsible for Climate Change - Jacobin - In recent years, “attribution science,” or the science of identifying causal connections between climate change and individual weather events, has become much more accurate. And last month, for the first time, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) asserted that human activity is the driving force behind planetary warming. “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land,” noted the new report.According to the well-established “polluter pays” legal principle, those responsible for this warming should be held liable for the cost. Sure enough, the fossil fuel industry has increasingly found itself in the legal crosshairs of governments, impacted communities, students, and activists all over the world, especially in light of investigations showing that companies like Exxon knew about the dangers of climate change decades ago, did little to address it, and even misled the public on the dangers.According to a January report from the UN’s Environment Programme, the number of climate change cases filed against countries and corporate actors nearly doubled in the past few years, with at least 1,550 cases filed as of July 2020. In the United States alone, twenty-four climate lawsuits — including some related toclimate change–fueled wildfires — are currently moving through the courts. In February, the International Bar Association even released a model for litigants to pursue legal action related to climate change.But the biggest polluters have yet to face meaningful consequences for planetary destruction — and it remains to be seen if they ever will. As efforts mount to hold polluters accountable, fossil fuel companies and other corporate interests are working overtime to leverage the US court and political system to avoid responsibility for the climate crisis — and offload the costs of environmental damage onto taxpayers. “Courts are increasingly going to be asked that question of who is going to pay [for climate change],” says Korey Silverman-Roati of Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law — but right now, no one knows the answer.
World’s Largest Carbon Capture Plant Begins Running in Iceland
-The world's largest plant designed to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere is up and running.The plant, called Orca, is located in Iceland. It was constructed by Swiss company Climeworks and Icelandic company Carbfix, and the two firms announced that it had begun to work on Wednesday, The Guardian reported. The plant works by using industrial vacuums to suck climate-warming gases out of the air, Gizmodo explained. Those gases are then stored underground and converted to stone within two years. Climeworks has said that the plant will be able to remove 4,000 tonnes (approximately 4,409 tons) of carbon dioxide every year, the equivalent of 870-cars-worth of emissions, The Guardian explained. Construction on the plant began in May of 2020 using "stackable, container-sized units," Climeworks said. This means that the plant could be built in less than15 months. Climeworks said it hoped to use the same methods to build more such plants in other locations. Carbon capture technology is slightly controversial because it is extremely expensive and critics worry it will take a long time to be able to build enough of it to make a meaningful difference, The Guardian noted. Climeworks pays for its operations by getting companies and even individuals who want to offset their emissions to fund their projects, Gizmodo explained. Its website even offers subscription plans to this effect. There is also concern that new technologies can distract businesses and governments from the work of reducing and eliminating greenhouse gas emissions. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said that both carbon capture technology and emissions cuts are necessary to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as the Paris agreement stipulates.
The world’s biggest plant to capture CO2 from the air just opened in Iceland - A major new facility to pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere started operating in Iceland on Wednesday, a boost to an emerging technology that experts say could eventually play an important role in reducing the greenhouse gases that are warming the planet.The carbon capturing plant, perched on a barren lava plateau in southwest Iceland, is the biggest of its kind, its builder says, increasing global capacity for the technology by more than 40 percent. Many climate experts say that efforts to suck carbon dioxide out of the air will be key to making the world carbon neutral in the coming decades.By 2050, humanity will need to pull nearly a billion metric tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere every year through direct air capture technology to achieve carbon neutral goals, according to International Energy Agency recommendations from earlier this year. The plant in Iceland will be able to capture 4,000 metric tons annually — just a tiny fraction of what will be necessary, but one that Climeworks, the company that built it, says can grow rapidly as efficiency improves and costs decrease.“This is a market that does not yet exist, but a market that urgently needs to be built,” said Christoph Gebald, a corkscrew-haired Swiss engineer who co-founded and co-directs Climeworks. “This plant that we have here is really the blueprint to further scale up and really industrialize.”For now, the Icelandic installation, which is called Orca — phonetically the same as the Icelandic word for “energy” — is an unlikely global savior. Human-sized fans are built into a series of boxes that are the size of standard 40-foot shipping containers. They sip carbon dioxide out of the air, catching it in spongelike filters. The filters are blasted with heat, about the same temperature needed to boil water, freeing the gas. Then it is mixed with water and pumped deep into underground basalt caverns, where over time it cools down and turns into dark-gray stone.Pumping CO2 into the ground is just one way to dispose of it. It can also go to other uses, as well. Energy companies can mix the carbon dioxide with hydrogen to make fuel. Farmers can feed their plants with it. Soda manufacturers can use it to fizz their drinks — something a Swiss customer of Climeworks did a few years ago when there was a carbonation shortage.At the moment, the costs are high: about $600 to $800 per metric ton of carbon dioxide, Gebald said, far from the levels around $100 to $150 per ton that are necessary to turn a profit without the help of any government subsidies. The costs reflect both the hand-hewn nature of the technology — Climeworks’ installations are mostly built by hand for now, not through automation — and also the large amounts of energy needed to power the CO2 capture process.The Orca installation was built in Iceland both because the tiny island nation has ample supplies of climate-friendly geothermal energy as well as just the right underground geology to make it easy to capture carbon.“If people hear those numbers for the first time they might think, ‘Oh wow, that’s expensive,’ but it’s always a question of what you compare it to,” Gebald said. The state of California subsidizes electric cars around $450 to $500 per ton of carbon emissions saved over the course of a vehicle’s expected life, for example, he said. Longer term, Gebald thinks prices can get cheaper — by 2030, he said they expect prices around $200 to $300 per ton. By the late 2030s, he thinks it will be half that — about the price where it will be a competitive method of reducing global emissions.
Decarbonization: Shipping groups propose carbon emissions levy to IMO -The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) on Monday proposed the implementation of a global market-based levy on carbon emissions from vessels ahead of the November meetings of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26).Shipping’s global trade representative body has submitted its proposal to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), calling for an internationally accepted market-based measure to accelerate the uptake and deployment of zero-carbon fuels."We need to be able to put zero emission ships in the water by 2030 without challenging price and safety issues,” Guy Platten, secretary general of ICS, said in a statement Monday. “If the IMO lends it's backing to our proposal, then we may yet be able to change this and deploy technologies economically and equitably.”The ICS, which represents the world’s national shipowner associations and more than 80 percent of the merchant fleet, said in the statement the proposal has “set the tone” for the discussion on how to curb emissions from the maritime industry with shipping responsible for around 2 percent of global carbon emissions.In papers submitted to the IMO, the levy will be based on mandatory contributions by ships trading globally that exceed 5,000 gross tons for each tonne of CO2 emitted. The money will go into an IMO Climate Fund, which, as well as closing the price gap between zero-carbon and conventional fuels, will be used to deploy the bunkering infrastructure required in ports throughout the world to supply fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia.Tightening environmental restrictions from the IMO, which wants total shipping emissions to be cut by 50 percent by 2050 from 2008 levels, coupled with shippers’ growing demand to achieve immediate reductions of so-called Scope 3 emissions, is driving the shipping industry to ultimately reduce its global CO2 contribution to zero.
Hochul signs law requiring zero-emission passenger vehicles by 2035 -New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) on Wednesday signed a bill into law that will require all passenger vehicles sold in the state to be emission-free by 2035. The law will make New York the second state after California to phase out greenhouse gas emissions in cars and light trucks. It also aims to eliminate emissions from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles by 2045, and requires the creation of a detailed plan for zero-emissions vehicle development by 2023. Separately, Hochul signed an order instructing the state Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) to develop a regulation cutting the pollution emitted by trucks. While Hochul’s office did not release details of the proposed regulation, it projected it would “accelerate” sales of zero-emission trucks. "New York is implementing the nation's most aggressive plan to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions affecting our climate and to reach our ambitious goals, we must reduce emissions from the transportation sector, currently the largest source of the state's climate pollution," Hochul said in a statement Wednesday. "The new law and regulation mark a critical milestone in our efforts and will further advance the transition to clean electric vehicles, while helping to reduce emissions in communities that have been overburdened by pollution from cars and trucks for decades." “When adopted, this new regulation will require an increasing percentage of all new trucks sold in New York to be zero-emissions vehicles beginning with the 2025 model year, cementing our state as a national leader on actions to address climate change while spurring economic opportunities and helping to reduce air pollution,” said DEC Commissioner Basil Seggos.
The Major Problem With EVs No One Is Talking About - When GM earlier this year started recalling Bolts, it issued a warning to owners of the EV: don’t charge your car battery to 100 percent. Normally, this would be easy enough to do. But what if your charger got hacked? Last year, researchers from the Southwest Research Institute in Texas successfully hacked the most popular charging system used in North America. The hack limited the charging rate, then blocked charging, and then overcharged the battery. The reason for the hack: “This was an initiative designed to identify potential threats in common charging hardware as we prepare for widespread adoption of electric vehicles in the coming decade,” Earlier this month, UK cybersecurity firm Pen Test Partners said that it had found cyber vulnerabilities in six home EV chargers and a large public charging network. Some of the vulnerabilities were no small potatoes. Among the findings of Pen Test Partners was a vulnerability that could potentially make possible the hacking of millions of EV chargers simultaneously and another that exposed user and charger data for the hacker to use. Perhaps the most dangerous vulnerability that the cybersecurity experts uncovered, however, was the possibility for a hacker to take control over millions of chargers. “As one could potentially switch all chargers on and off synchronously, there is potential to cause stability problems for the power grid, owing to the large swings in power demand as reserve capacity struggles to maintain grid frequency,” the firm said. EVs have been touted as the future of transportation. . Yet, there is little talk about the cybersecurity implications of having a huge network of hundreds of chargers that can be hacked. Public chargers are the riskiest, it seems. While one could hack a home charger, they would only gain access to that device and possibly the home network of that household. If they hack a public charger, they could gain access to the whole network, Gaining access to data is one risk associated with the vulnerabilities of EV chargers. Another is even more straightforward: electricity theft. If a hacker breaches a public charger, they could siphon electricity off it and make someone else pay, says Singh Ghuman.Attacks on home chargers can be serious, too, despite their much more limited focus. Since both EVs and EV chargers are connected devices, hacking the charger could grant the attacker access to things like passwords and other credentials. And that’s not even the worst that can happen. “Threat actors can also gain control of the electric vehicles themselves, which includes control over steering, brakes, acceleration, and other functions which could result in an accident,”
Biden wants nearly half the nation’s energy to come from solar by 2050 - The Biden administration announced a blueprint Wednesday outlining how solar energy could produce nearly half of the nation’s electricity by mid-century, part of its ambitious bid to address climate change. The new Energy Department analysis shows how the United States can scale up production of solar panels, which now provide 3 percent of the nation’s electricity, to 45 percent over the next three decades. It would entail the United States doubling its installed solar power every year for the next four years, compared with 2020, and then doubling it again by 2030. The move, which would transform the nation’s energy industry and infrastructure, shows how President Biden is determined to reshape the economy and cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in the face of staunch political opposition. While the administration has not set a specific solar energy target, the president has called for 100 percent of the nation’s electricity to come from clean energy by 2035.Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement that the nation could achieve such a rapid shift, noting that the study projects that solar energy could provide 40 percent of the nation’s electricity by 2035 and employ as many as 1.5 million people without boosting electricity prices.That analysis, however, assumes Congress would fund several of the clean energy investments and policies that Biden has proposed but which have yet to be enacted. “Achieving this bright future requires a massive and equitable deployment of renewable energy and strong decarbonization polices — exactly what is laid out in the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda,” Granholm said in a statement. Biden emphasized the need to achieve his goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 after touring damage wrought by Hurricane Ida in New York and New Jersey on Tuesday. However, in recent weeks some environmental groups have begun to question Biden’s commitment to curbing fossil fuels linked to climate change, especially since the Interior Department announced it would hold an oil and gas sale on 80 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico this fall to comply with a court order by a Louisiana judge. The preliminary injunction, in June, blocked the administration’s policy of pausing the sale of new oil and gas leases on federal land while reviewing how to reform the program. Interior has also scheduled several onshore oil and gas auctions for next February.
Biden solar energy goals may depend on Ohio factory - The Washington Post— On the outskirts of Toledo, a short drive from Interstate 90, thousands of glass panels rumble along assembly lines at a factory that will help determine whether the Biden administration can meet two of its biggest goals — dramatically reducing carbon emissions and lessening reliance on China.First Solar is one of the few U.S. solar-panel manufacturers in an industry dominated by Chinese factories, some of which the Biden administration has accused of employing forced labor. Lately, that has made First Solar particularly popular with panel buyers, which have snapped up the company’s entire production run through 2022. Posters in the factory’s lobby proudly declare that the company is “countering China’s state-subsidized dominance of solar supply chains” while churning out products that are “uniquely American” and “Ohio-made.” The question now: Can First Solar and its smaller counterparts in the U.S. solar industry crank up enough manufacturing capacity to meet the administration’s renewable energy goals or will U.S. power companies remain dependent on the massive Chinese solar industry, despite concerns about how it operates? The technology offers a high-profile test of the United States’ ambition to re-shore manufacturing after years of losing ground to China’s low-cost and state-subsidized factories. Since 2004, U.S. production of the photovoltaic cells that form solar panels has fallen from 13 percent of global supply to less than 1 percent, while China’s share has soared from less than 1 percent to 67 percent, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The Biden administration on Wednesday renewed its commitment to dramatically expand solar energy as part of its goal of eliminating carbon emissions from electricity production by 2035. Large investments could increase solar from 3 percent of electricity generation today to 45 percent within three decades, an Energy Department study concluded.
Chinese Solar Panels Banned Due to Forced Labor Concerns, Could Delay Biden’s Clean Energy Agenda - U.S. officials are blocking the import of solar panels from China they believe may have been produced using forced labor. Experts warn the move may slow President Biden's push for more renewable energy projects.Industry executives and analysts said solar panels from at least three Chinese companies have been targeted in recent weeks and several product detentions were confirmed by Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), The Washington Post reported.According to CNN, China's Xinjiang region has evolved over the last two decades into a major production hub for solar panel parts supplying the rest of the world. Unfortunately, the report In Broad Daylight: Uyghur Forced Labour and Global Solar Supply Chains published in May of this year by Sheffield Hallam University suggested that much of the work to put together those parts might rely on forced labor. The companies have been exploiting the region's Uyghur population and other ethnic and religious minorities to produce goods for the global supply chain of solar panels, the report said.In June, CBP banned imports of silica-based products made by Hoshine Silicon Industry Company as well as goods made using those products. The company is the world's largest producer of metallurgical-grade silicon, a key raw material used in solar panels, the news report said. At the time, The Washington Post reported that the ban could have "widespread impact" on the entire solar energy industry, which is dominated by Chinese suppliers who source materials from Hoshine. "Almost the complete solar industry is affected by Hoshine," Johannes Bernreuter, a research analyst with expertise in the solar supply chain, told The Post.When it announced the protective measure, CBP said it had information "reasonably indicating" that Hoshine's plants in China's Xinjiang region use forced labor, The New York Times reported. This finding triggered a ban under a U.S. law prohibiting the import of goods made by coerced workers.CBP officials estimated that the United States has imported at least $150 million in products made with Hoshine materials over the last 2½ years, as well as more than $6 million of direct imports from the company.Solar is currently the fastest-growing source of new electricity generation in the United States. The Biden administration hopes to boost the alternative energy from 3% of electricity generation to more than 40% by 2035. The administration has also set a goal of 100% of the U.S. electricity to come from carbon-free sources by 2035, The Times reported. This can include alternative energy sources such as solar, wind or nuclear. Prior to this ban, Biden had hoped to meet this lofty goal by more than doubling the annual pace of solar installations nationwide and cutting the price of solar panels by more than half, the news report said. Chinese companies currently dominate the global production of solar panels, so cutting off that supply could make it harder and/or more costly to grow the solar industry domestically. Some industry leaders have voiced concern that further implementation of the ban could slow the construction of new solar-energy projects throughout the country. The ban also "brings to the fore the tension between the [Biden] administration's human rights agenda and its efforts to address the climate crisis," The Washington Post reported. Mark Widmar, chief executive of First Solar, told The Post that CBP enforcement actions have "had a real significant disruption to a lot of planned projects and their ability to complete them this year. It's going to be very challenging, very difficult." First Solar is a U.S.-based panel manufacturer that doesn't use Chinese materials.
‘Give them a future’: Should get first dibs on solar and wind energy jobs? -- Cecil Roberts, UMWA president, said that as mining jobs decrease and solar and wind energy jobs rise, miners should be the first to get training for these jobs. He says miners are the ones who are being displaced due to these jobs. President Joe Biden said he wanted to make union jobs for those who are displaced.“We’ve been resisting that obviously because we think we should protect the jobs we have, but if we’re going to have a policy that says coal miners lose their jobs, do what you said you were going to do, create union jobs for those who get displaced,” said Roberts.Roberts also says current union jobs pay between $75,000 and $100,00 per year with great benefits such as healthcare, pension plan, and time off. At this time, solar and wind energy jobs offer only half of those benefits and half the pay“I’m hearing a lot of talk about creating these solar jobs, but I’m not hearing a talk or discussion about making them union jobs. I want to see how that works. If we’re going to displace these coal miners, give them a future,” said Roberts.
Dominion Energy overcharged customers by $1.2 billion since 2015, utility expert says -Dominion Energy overcharged its Virginia customers $1.2 billion since 2015, according to testimony filed Friday by a utility expert in an ongoing review of energy monopoly’s finances. The testimony filed at the Virginia State Corporation Commission came from Heather Bailey, an Austin, Texas-based consultant and former utility executive and regulator. The testimony was submitted by the environmental group Appalachian Voices, which is represented by the Southern Environmental Law Center in Charlottesville. Dominion Energy will file a response to the testimony in the coming weeks. A final hearing in the case, known as a “triennial review,” is set for late October. “Unfortunately, the law prevents the commission from returning all the $1.2 billion to customers,” said Will Cleveland, senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center. “They can only get a fraction of that back at best.” The commission can’t order any refund of excess profits Dominion earned in 2015 or 2016 because of a Dominion-backed 2018 law called the Grid Transformation and Security Act, Cleveland said.9:00 PM
Griddy customers now must pursue paybacks from natural gas and electricity providers - Griddy Energy customers got another scare this week when they received a notice from a U.S. bankruptcy court that their class-action lawsuit had been dismissed. But the order signed Tuesday by U.S. Bankruptcy Court Judge Marvin Isgur isn’t the end of efforts to refund former customers at least some of the exorbitant electric bills they paid Griddy during Texas’ epic February freeze. “The class-action case wasn’t going to go anywhere,” said Derek Potts, the lawyer who filed the lawsuit against Griddy. Griddy, which filed for bankruptcy in March, didn’t have the assets to pay creditors and the administrative costs of the bankruptcy. Lawyer fees in the case have topped $3.5 million. But Griddy’s former customers and other creditors can still seek damages from companies that do have assets, such as natural gas and energy providers that collected windfalls during that week in February when electricity prices shot up. Potts’ Houston-based law firm has been hired by the bankruptcy court to move ahead with other lawsuits that could lead to paybacks to former customers. “Our role has changed. While we’re still trying to collect money for creditors, now we’re working for the bankruptcy estate,” Potts said. Griddy’s customers became poster children for the extreme possibilities of the Texas electric grid as prices shot up to $9,000 per megawatt-hour when freezing temperatures blanketed the state. That price compared with normal rates of about $25 to $30 per megawatt-hour. Residential and small business customers were left with bills in the hundreds and thousands of dollars for a week of electricity. About 24,000 customers were charged more than $29 million for electricity for one week. Attorney General Ken Paxton struck a deal to cancel a deceptive trade practices lawsuit against Griddy in exchange for the electricity provider’s agreement to wipe out the $29 million it was owed by its former customers. Griddy agreed to not seek unpaid balances with collection agencies or make credit reports that would harm customers. Griddy customer Candice Swanson of Hurst kept her thermostat at 55 degrees because Texans were told to conserve energy as power outages and rolling blackouts put others in danger of freezing in their homes. The Texas Department of State Health Services estimated the 210 people died because of the subzero temperatures. Swanson’s electric bill for the week, even with gas heat, was more than $1,100. “I just don’t want to be taken advantage of,” she said. “Someone got away with price gouging.”
Decision looms for Bridgeport fuel cell plant project facing opposition in South End - — A previously rejected proposal to build a hydrogen fuel cell plant off Iranistan Avenue is back on the table and facing stiff neighborhood opposition. Easton-based NuPower is asking the Connecticut Siting Council for permission to build a 70 foot high, 9.6-megawatt power plant and thermal heating loop at 600 Iranistan Ave. on a triangular half acre lot below Interstate-95. The $80 million plant would extract hydrogen from natural gas — the gas is not burned — and convert it into electricity. A thermal loop of heated water would provide heating and cooling for buildings up to a mile away. “We are proud of [the plant] and excited about it and hope we can help Connecticut,” said Dan Donovan, president of NuPower. The company operates a similar fuel cell plant at the nearby Cherry Street lofts. That enthusiasm, however, is not shared by over 200 neighbors of the proposed plant who have signed petitions and written letters in opposition. “This is a textbook case of environmental injustice,” Tanner Burgdorf, a resident of the nearby Seaside Village condo complex, said in a letter to the Siting Council. “[The proposal] is shameful, shocking, and disrespectful to every member of the Bridgeport community that would suffer from such a short-sighted and inhumane decision,” Burgdorf said. Opponents claim carbon dioxide and other emissions from the plant will lead to higher rates of asthma in the South End neighborhood, which is already within a “red” zone for asthma related hospitalizations. “We are home to I-95, a gas plant, 2 other fuel cells, severe flooding, United Illuminating, a garbage dump, a nearby trash burning plant, a solar panel park and until last week a coal plant,”
Lawmakers: Ida damage shows need for infrastructure upgrades (AP) — Shaken by haunting images of surging rivers, flooded roads and subways and other damage caused by the remnants of Hurricane Ida, lawmakers from both parties are vowing to upgrade the nation’s aging infrastructure network. As the deadly storm moved from the Gulf Coast through the Northeast, members of Congress said the deluge offered irrefutable evidence that power lines, roads, bridges and other infrastructure are deteriorating even as storms and other extreme weather are strengthening. At least 50 people from Virginia to Connecticut died as storm water from Ida’s remnants cascaded into people’s homes and engulfed automobiles, overwhelming urban drainage systems unable to handle so much rain in such a short time. At least 16 deaths deaths were blamed on the storm in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. “Global warming is upon us,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. “When you get two record rainfalls in a week (in New York City), it’s not just coincidence. When you get all the changes that we have seen in weather, that’s not a coincidence. … It’s going to get worse and worse and worse, unless we do something about it.”Schumer and other lawmakers said the catastrophe is the latest example of why the nation needs the nearly trillion-dollar infrastructure bill passed by the Senate last month. He and other Democrats also are calling for passage of President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion, partisan rebuilding plan aimed at helping families and combating climate change. “It’s so imperative to pass the two bills,” Schumer said. Democrats hope to pass both bills by the end of this month, but action on the bipartisan bill may be difficult until the larger package is ready. Progressives have said they won’t support a bipartisan bill without strong companion legislation to advance their priorities. Biden made a pitch Friday for the bipartisan bill, saying it “is going to change things on our streets across the country.” He cited the bill’s “historic investment” in roads, rail and bridges, as well as clean energy, clean water and universal broadband. “It’s about resilience,” Biden said. “Make our roads and highways safer. Make us more resilient to the kinds of devastating impacts from extreme weather we’re seeing in so many parts of the country.” The plan includes $110 billion to build and repair roads and bridges and $66 billion to upgrade railroads. It also includes about $60 billion to upgrade the electric grid and build thousands of miles of transmission lines to expand use of renewable energy and nearly $47 billion to adapt and rebuild roads, ports and bridges to help withstand damage from stronger storms as well as wildfires and drought. “If we’re going to make our country more resilient to natural disasters, whatever they are, we have to start preparing now,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La.
Judge deals blow to Obama fossil fuel royalty rule - A federal judge yesterday struck down Obama-era regulations on royalty valuations for coal mined from public lands but kept parts of the rule related to oil and gas payments. The 2016 rule by the Interior Department’s Office of Natural Resources Revenue aimed to rein in mining companies’ practice of selling coal at a discounted rate to their own subsidiaries, deflating the royalty fees owed to taxpayers for developing publicly owned fossil fuels. The rule placed the royalty valuation on the first "arm’s length" sale of coal, or when the mining company sells it to an unaffiliated organization. Sometimes companies or cooperatives both produce the coal and sell it to an affiliate that burns it at a power plant — meaning arm’s-length transactions don’t exist. In those cases, the Obama rule proposed basing the value of the coal on the sale of electricity. Chief Judge Scott Skavdahl of the U.S. District Court for the District of Wyoming disagreed with that methodology. “Trying to value coal based on the sale of electricity is akin to valuing wheat based on the sale of a cake; there may be a relationship between the two, but it is weak and several other factors potentially play a much larger role in determining the sales price of the end product," Skavdahl wrote in his opinion yesterday. Parts of the rule dealing with ONRR’s method for valuing oil and gas, however, were “sufficiently supported,” Skavdahl wrote. The judge, an Obama appointee, upheld the oil and gas provisions of the 2016 rule, including the discontinuation of a “Deep Water Policy” that defined the movement of oil and gas from the seafloor to an offshore platform as deductible “transportation,” instead of nondeductible “gathering" when calculating royalty fees. “ONRR explained why it decided it was better to cancel the Deep Water Policy,” Skavdahl wrote. “ONRR concluded the policy has largely served its original purpose of incentivizing deepwater leasing and development.”’
Power plant on Indian River reports 30,000-gallon diesel spill - About 30,000 gallons of diesel fuel was spilled at NRG Energy's power plant on the Indian River near Millsboro overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday. The spill was discovered Wednesday morning. It occurred after a pressurized hose detached, according to a statement from the company, and was contained to NRG property. Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control spokeswoman Nikki Lavoie said the hose detached from an above-ground storage tank and the fuel was released into "a contained outside area." Lavoie said Tri-State Bird Rescue was contacted "to assist with the wildlife impacts from the spill," including "affected geese on the property and seagulls that had flown into the area." No waterways or public land were affected by the spill, according to NRG spokesman Dave Schrader. He said the spill was contained to "the coal pile." DNREC, the Coast Guard and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency continue to monitor cleanup. NRG announced earlier this year that the coal-fired Millsboro plant will close in June 2022.
Illinois Sierra Club demands CWLP release ash cloud incident report - Activists are calling for Springfield to establish a pollution-related alert system in the aftermath of an ash cloud that spread into the community Aug. 31. The Sangamon Valley Group of Sierra Club Illinois, Prairie Rivers Network and Springfield NAACP held a press conference Tuesday calling for City Water, Light and Power to publicly release a report on the incident at Dallman Power Plant Unit 4 that caused coal residue to be released into the air and blow into the surrounding community. In addition to making sure something like this doesn’t happen again, Sierra Club Illinois’ Nick Dodson said Springfield should fund a citywide alert system to alert residents when they should stay indoors and/or avoid an area whenever there is a pollution-related incident. Springfield NAACP president Teresa Haley, who lives less than a mile from Dallman Power Plant, went to the emergency room days later and said she is still feeling the lingering effects of being exposed to the coal residue.“I felt absolutely horrible. … I didn’t know if I was having an asthma attack or a heart attack,” said Haley, who has asthma. She said her lungs felt like they were burning and she was advised by a doctor to stay inside and keep her house’s windows shut. Erin Kirkpatrick, a physician assistant for Memorial Health System’s urgent care centers and a member of Sierra Club Illinois, said harmful chemicals inhaled from coal residue are small enough when inhaled to break down in the lungs and enter the blood stream and travel throughout the body. “What our community experienced last week was absolutely avoidable contamination,” Kirkpatrick said. Lead, mercury and arsenic are among the toxic chemicals found in coal residue, Prairie Rivers Network water resources engineer Andrew Rehn said.
Illinois House inches closer to saving two nuclear plants — The Illinois House plans to consider an energy bill on Thursday that could prevent two Exelon Corp. nuclear power plants from shutting in coming days and months, the House speaker said.“I am pleased to see negotiations moving forward on a comprehensive energy proposal that prioritizes a greener future for Illinois, as well as meaningful ethics reform and maintaining our current workforce,” House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch, a Democrat, said in a statement on Tuesday.The Illinois Senate on Sept. 1 passed a bill that contains more than $600 million in carbon mitigation credits for nuclear plants, which generate virtually emissions-free electricity.The state has been working on the bill for nearly two years but it has been delayed on concerns of Governor J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat, some lawmakers and environmentalists that coal plants would not be phased out quickly or allowed to keep running with unproven carbon-capture equipment.Public and political anger also delayed action after Exelon’s Chicago-based Commonwealth Edison unit agreed to pay $200 million to resolve a U.S. Department of Justice probe over inappropriate lobbying practices in 2020.U.S. nuclear plants have been struggling to compete with wind and solar farms and plants that burn low-cost natural gas. Exelon has said it will close its Byron nuclear plant on Sept. 13 and its Dresden plant in November if a state or federal program does not come to the rescue.Preventing nuclear plants from closing has been a priority for the administration of President Joe Biden, which has supported tax incentives for nuclear in federal infrastructure legislation and sees the plants as important to its goal of decarbonizing the power grid by 2035. Exelon has said the federal incentives alone could not come fast enough to save the plants. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the Illinois legislation.
Judge allows competitor to join case in sale of Kewaunee nuke plant; customer funds at stake – A demolition contractor that says it could save Wisconsin utility customers hundreds of millions of dollars will be allowed to participate in a review of plans to sell one of the state’s two nuclear power plants. Dominion Energy is seeking regulatory approval to sell the Kewaunee Power Station to EnergySolutions, a Utah company that specializes in nuclear waste disposal and decommissioning. The sale price has not been publicly disclosed, but according to applications filed with regulators, EnergySolutions would assume ownership of the plant and about $780 million set aside to cover the cost of decommissioning, estimated at nearly $724 million.But NorthStar Group Services of New York says it could do the job for no more than $550 million, returning any remaining money to ratepayers.NorthStar argued that without competitive bidding, a requirement to return unused funds removes any incentive for Dominion or EnergySolutions, which contracts with many of its subsidiaries, to ensure they are spent prudently.A judge on Tuesday ordered that NorthStar be allowed to participate in the Public Service Commission proceedings, over objections from Dominion and EnergySolutions.MGE agreed to trim the monthly residential customer service fee by $2 in each of the next two years, bringing it to $15 in 2023. That’s the lowest it’s been since 2014, when regulators approved an 82% increase.Administrative Law Judge Michael Newmark said NorthStar’s “unique experience and expertise in the field” of decommissioning would help the PSC decide if the sale is in the public interest.Two consumer advocacy groups, the Citizens Utility Board and Wisconsin Industrial Energy Group, will also be allowed to participate in the proceedings.Completed in 1973, the 560-megawatt plant was originally owned by Wisconsin Public Service Corp., Alliant Energy and Madison Gas and Electric, whose customers contributed to the decommissioning fund for decades.After buying out MGE, the remaining utilities sold the plant — along with the $405 million decommissioning trust — in 2005 to Dominion Energy for $220 million. The PSC initially rejected the sale, saying it would strip the commission of control should Dominion later sell the plant to a third party and deprive ratepayers of any unused decommissioning funds. With utilities seeking to spend billions of dollars building wind, solar and battery storage systems to replace coal-fired power plants, commissions agreed they need a better understanding of the cost and ramifications. The commission relented after Dominion added 12 conditions, including a pledge to return any excess decommissioning funds to ratepayers.
Could New Mexico follow Texas and ban some nuclear waste storage? -A bill passed by the Texas Legislature could ban the storage of high-level nuclear waste in the stateand could prove a path to similar efforts in neighboring New Mexico. House Bill 7 was passed by the Texas House of Representatives on an 119-3 vote Sept. 2 and unanimously by the Texas Senate. The bill was sent to Gov. Greg Abbott for a signature and which would create a new state law. If enacted, the bill would expressly prohibit the state from issuing permits to construct or operate a facility to store nuclear waste within the state, with the exception of existing nuclear facilities like power plants that store the waste on-site. “With the exception of storage at the site of currently or formerly operating nuclear power reactors and currently or formerly operating nuclear research and test reactors operated by a university, a person, including the compact waste disposal facility license holder, may not dispose of or store high-level radioactive waste in this state,” read the bill. The bill came as the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was engaged in a licensing process to expand a facility owned by Interim Storage Partners in Andrews, Texas – on the state’s border with southeast New Mexico within the oil-rich Permian Basin region – to store about 40,000 metric tons of spent nuclear fuel rods. About 70 miles east into New Mexico, Holtec International planned its facility along the border of Eddy and Lea counties to hold more than 100,000 metric tons of nuclear waste. Both facilities were intended, per the companies that hope to build and operate them, to hold the waste temporarily as a permanent repository is developed. A permanent storage location for the waste does not exist in the U.S. after a project at Yucca Mountain, Nevada was blocked by lawmakers in that state and defunded during the administration of former-President Barack Obama. Opponents of the temporary facilities argued they posed a risk to communities near the sites and communities along the transport routes via rail from generator sites across the country, and worried the facilities could become permanent repositories. State leaders in both New Mexico and Texas voiced opposition to siting the facilities within the Permian Basin region, contending it could threaten industries like oil and gas and agriculture and dissuade developers from investing in the region.
Ohio to search for orphan wells at Lake Veto after crude oil spill -- After an out-of-use oil well dating back to the 1930s began leaking into a state-owned lake, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources plans to use a detector to search for other orphan wells. The inspectors likely will use a drone, which will have be equipped with a magnetometer, to check for other orphan wells at Lake Veto in Washington County, according to a staff member at the cleanup site. "Wells located in the lake, but determined not to be leaking would be classified as high-priority wells. The current well was classified as an emergency because it leaked in the lake," said Stephanie O'Grady, a spokeswoman for the department. The state continues to clean up a crude oil spill from a leaking orphan well found in Plum Run, which empties into Veto Lake. The 160-acre lake used for fishing and recreation was constructed by the state in the 1950s. However, a former landowner remembers wells that his family installed dating back to the 1930s. The state has no record of the wells, including the one at the edge of Plum Run that began leaking oil last month. That's an issue that's true for the entire state. No one knows how many orphan wells exist in Ohio. ODNR has on record as many as 972 wells, according to an annual report. However, academic studies estimate that there are between 158,000 and 183,000 wells. The average cost to plug a well in Ohio is between $85,000 and $100,000. That cost means many landowners have a liability on their property that they likely can't afford to fix. Orphan wells can leak methane, contributing to climate change, crude oil and in some instances have had hydraulic fracturing waste migrating from class II injection wells that results in widespread contamination.A bipartisan infrastructure bill would spend $21 billion to clean up Superfund and brownfield sites, reclaim abandoned mine land, as well as plug orphaned gas wells.Rains from Hurricane Ida have slowed down the cleanup process for the leaking well, O'Grady said.
Ohio bills call for a ‘radioactive subsidy’ for one company’s oil and gas byproduct, critics say - Ohio law allows produced water pumped out of wells alongside oil and gas to be spread on roads to control ice or dust, but its sale and application are tracked and regulated. Now Senate Bill 171 and House Bill 282 would do away with those requirements for one company’s processed oil and gas byproduct.Due to its high salt content, the produced water is often called brine, although it can contain heavy metals and naturally occurring radioactive materials, such as radium 226 and 228. Critics see both the proposed bills and current law as giving improper competitive advantages to the state’s fossil fuel industry.The bills’ proposal is “literally a radioactive subsidy … that all Ohioans would pay for with our health,” said Rep. Casey Weinstein, D-Hudson. And in critics’ eyes, even current law lets companies more cheaply dispose of a byproduct without proper regard for health and environmental risks. Ohio is one of several states that allows oil and gas wastewater to be spread on roads for de-icing or dust suppression, according to a July 2021 review by the Natural Resources Defense Council. The practice has been allowed for brine from conventional drilling wells since 1985, but not from fracked, horizontal wells, said Ohio Department of Natural Resources spokesperson Stephanie O’Grady. Nature’s Own Source, LLC, is the only Ohio company that currently stands to benefit from the pending bills. Customers for its processed AquaSalina de-icer have included the Ohio Department of Transportation, which used more than a million gallons of AquaSalina in 2018 and more than half a million in 2019, WKYC has reported. Those figures don’t include dozens of other local governments that have used it or untreated oil and gas brine on roads.The legislation now under consideration would help to make AquaSalina more competitive with those other choices by treating its processed oil and gas wastewater brine as an unregulated commodity once it’s sold. The product could be sold to a wider range of customers, including over the counter in hardware stores without further regulatory oversight after someone buys it.“Oil and gas waste is toxic and radioactive,” said Shelly Corbin, the Beyond Dirty Fuels campaign representative for the Ohio Sierra Club. And the Department of Transportation’s decision will just eliminate one purchaser of AquaSalina, versus banning the use of brine on roads statewide, she noted.Radium in brine spread on roads “will eventually build up in the soil. It will build up in creeks, in rivers. And its half-life is 1,600 years,” Corbin said. “When we’re all dead and gone, this stuff is going to be around for many, many, many generations.”
Seneca Resources seeks certification for Appalachian production - - Pennsylvania natural gas producer Seneca Resources Co. recently announced it entered into an agreement with Project Canary, a company aiding the oil and gas industry to operate cleaner and more efficiently, to obtain an independent responsibly sourced gas (RSG) certification for approximately 300 million cubic feet per day of the company’s Appalachian production. Project Canary’s certification process focuses on air, land, water, and community impacts and analyzes more than 600 unique operational and environmental, social, and governance (ESG)-related data points. The certification process will cover nearly one-third of Seneca’s natural gas production. “Sustainability, continuous innovation, and best-in-class environmental performance are embedded in our guiding principles and culture,” David Bauer, National Fuel president and CEO, said. “Seneca’s commitment with Project Canary seeks to independently verify our existing operational practices and further strengthen the Company’s ESG commitments. We are excited to work towards independent validation of our leading operational and environmental practices, many of which are standard across our Appalachia assets.” Seneca plans to install continuous monitoring devices at three well-pad locations to provide real-time, site-level emissions data.
Shell Partners with Crowley for LNG Bunkering Barge on East Coast - Shipowner Crowley Maritime Corp. said Wednesday it is partnering with Royal Dutch Shell plc to construct a liquefied natural gas (LNG) bunker barge to serve vessels powered by the super-chilled fuel on the East Coast starting in 2024. The 416-foot-long barge is designed to offer capacity for 12,000 cubic meters of LNG and product supply equipment to “fully serve ocean carriers,” Crowley said. Subsidiary Shell NA LNG LLC has signed a long-term charter for the barge, which is expected to be the largest Jones Act-compliant vessel of its kind once built. Financial terms of the contract were not disclosed.“Shell is dedicated to growing our LNG bunkering network across key trade routes, and this barge supports our commitment to helping provide our customers with the energy solution they are looking for,” said Shell’s Tahir Faruqui, general manager of global downstream LNG. “The shipping sector is making progress toward decarbonization, and LNG offers immediate emissions reduction with the potential to become a net-zero emission marine fuel given the possible roles of bio-LNG and synthetic LNG.”The bunkering vessel would be constructed at Fincantieri Marine Group’s shipyard at Sturgeon Bay, WI. The design includes a “state-of-the-art solution” developed by Shell and Crowley “to flexibly deliver LNG to various types of LNG containment systems,” Crowley said.The announcement comes as LNG bunkering is expected to grow in the United States. Small-scale player Stabilis Energy Solutions Inc. said in August it expects its first LNG marine fueling event to take place later this year on the Gulf Coast. More recently, the Port of New Orleans inked a memorandum of understanding with Cleancor Energy Solutions LLC to explore developing LNG fueling services for ships. For its part, Fincatieri Bay is set to deliver an LNG barge later this year to Polaris New Energy, a subsidiary of private equity-backed Northstar Midstream Holdco LLC. The 5,400-cubic meter vessel is set to operate initially on the East Coast and provide bunkering services to NorthStar customers.
DNR, Environmental Groups Concerned About Proposed Pipeline Underneath Ohio River - The Indiana Department of Natural Resources, the Sierra Club, and Citizens Action Coalition have concerns about a proposed natural gas pipeline that would run underneath the Ohio River. The pipeline would bring gas from other states to two small natural gas plants in southern Indiana that CenterPoint Energy intends to build.In comments to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the DNR said pipeline construction could harm endangered species of mussels as well as the endangered Indiana bat and federally threatened Northern long-eared bat.The company that wants to build the pipeline, Texas Gas Transmission LLC, said because the project will help CenterPoint move away from coal — the federal government doesn’t need to assess what effect it would have on the climate.But Tony Mendoza, a staff attorney for the Sierra Club, said that’s not true because CenterPoint was going to retire its coal units whether the pipeline got built or not. “What do we replace them with? Do we need more new polluting gas units or can we do an entirely new clean energy replacement like NIPSCO is doing?” he said.
Mountain Valley Pipeline seeks the identity of its anonymous critics - Very little is publicly known about a very public critic of the Mountain Valley Pipeline. Appalachians Against Pipelines established a Facebook page in February 2018, about the time that tree-sitters began their efforts to block construction of the massive natural gas pipeline. Since then, the group has used social media as a megaphone to promote its agenda, while otherwise remaining largely invisible. Mountain Valley is trying to find out who they are. In a subpoena recently filed in Roanoke’s federal court, the company asks Facebook to reveal the names and telephone numbers of those who established and maintain a page that has more than 21,000 followers. Appalachians Against Pipelines says the subpoena is nothing more than an effort to intimidate and silence them — a position shared by the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a nonprofit group that advocates for privacy and free speech on the internet. “It generally gives us concern when we see a company like MVP trying to unmask its critics,” said Adam Schwartz, a senior attorney with the San Francisco-based foundation. In order for a company like Mountain Valley to acquire the names of the administrators of a Facebook page, it must meet a high standard of showing that its needs or concerns outweigh the First Amendment rights of the commenters, Schwartz said. “The right to stay anonymous is not absolute,” he said. Schwartz said it is not unheard of for a company to seek information about its opponents from the social media outlets they use. When a subpoena is contested, judges make case-by-case decisions. Mountain Valley declined to comment Friday, saying that “details regarding any pending or potential litigation efforts cannot be provided at this time.” The subpoena was filed Aug. 20 in connection with a pending case in U.S. District Court in Roanoke, where the company has been at odds for years with the owners of a Bent Mountain property through which the pipeline needs to pass. Coles and Theresa “Red” Terry became concerned when construction crews began drilling through bedrock on their land last month in preparation for blasting to clear a path for the buried, 42-inch pipe. They filed a request for an injunction to stop the blasting, saying that it threatened to contaminate their well water. The request was denied Aug. 13 by District Judge Elizabeth Dillon. One week later, Mountain Valley filed its own request for an injunction, asking Dillon to order that protesters of the pipeline not interfere with work on the Terry property. “On Aug. 11, in order to prevent the blasting from proceeding, protesters were invited to the property to position themselves along the edge of the easements,” the motion states. “Messages were posted on social media asking readers to join the protest.” Mountain Valley contends that the protesters — some of whom stood within 50 feet of live explosives while smoking cigarettes — were creating a risk to themselves and pipeline workers.
Mountain Valley seeks to unmask critical Facebook group - — The Mountain Valley Pipeline is trying to find it who some of its very public online critics are. The Roanoke Times reported Saturday that the company filed a subpoena in federal court last month to try to find out who is behind a Facebook group called Appalachians Against Pipelines.The group established a Facebook page in 2018. That’s about the time that tree-sitters began to try to block construction of the natural gas project.Mountain Valley is asking Facebook to reveal the names and telephone numbers of those who established and maintain the page.The group says the subpoena is an an effort to intimidate and silence it. Mountain Valley declined to comment.Mountain Valley’s efforts has been criticized by the Electronic Frontier Foundation. The nonprofit advocates for privacy and free speech on the internet.Adam Schwartz, a senior attorney with the San Francisco-based foundation, said the rights of critics to often remain unnamed has been established in the courts. Schwartz said that Mountain Valley must prove to the court that its needs or concerns outweigh the First Amendment rights of the commenters. The planned 303-mile (488-kilometer) mile pipeline will take natural gas drilled from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations and transport it through West Virginia and Virginia. The project has faced legal challenges from environmental groups. A 75-mile extension into central North Carolina also has been proposed.
U.S. Army Corps Grants LG&E Permit For Gas Pipeline Through Bernheim Forest – Louisville Gas & Electric has cleared another hurdle to constructing a natural gas pipeline that crosses through conservation lands and farms in Bullitt County on its way to serve its primary user — the makers of Jim Beam bourbon. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers approved LG&E’s permit to build the nearly 12-mile-long pipeline in late August. A spokesperson for LG&E said the company has now received the major state and federal permits necessary for construction, though several obstacles remain. “LG&E will begin construction of the project once it obtains all remaining land rights currently in litigation; completes a competitive bidding process and selects a contractor to perform the work; and obtains any remaining minor authorizations required closer to construction,” said Natasha Collins, LG&E spokesperson. The utility says the current pipeline has run out of capacity and a second pipeline is necessary to improve reliability and keep up with growth in the area around Mt. Washington, Shepherdsville, Clermont and Lebanon Junction. The gas pipeline would cut through Bernheim Arboretum and Research Forest’s Cedar Grove Wildlife Corridor and several farms. On it’s path, it would cross at least six major waterways impacting wetlands, sinkholes and habitat for more than a half-dozen threatened or endangered species, in addition to removing nearly 40 acres of forest, according to an LG&E stormwater pollution prevention plan. The proposed path has sparked protests and advocacy campaigns, in addition to legal challenges.
Natural gas developer asks SCC to rule it doesn't need state approval to build Chickahominy Pipeline - A pipeline company linked to a planned natural gas plant in Charles City County is asking state regulators to rule that it doesn’t need their approval to build a pipeline to channel gas from existing lines to the facility. Chickahominy Pipeline, LLC “has determined that it is impracticable and unfeasible to procure an adequate supply of natural gas from” utility Virginia Natural Gas, its lawyers wrote Friday in a petition to the State Corporation Commission. Consequently, the company plans to buy natural gas from a third-party provider “with upstream and midstream operations in Virginia.” Besides Virginia Natural Gas’ intrastate line between Northern Virginia and Tidewater, Columbia Gas, Transco and East Tennessee Natural Gas operate interstate pipelines across the state. Under state law, the SCC is responsible for regulating gas service provided by public utilities as well as “non-utility gas service,” a term defined as the sale and distribution of gas by someone other than a utility to two or more customers through underground or aboveground pipelines. In its filing with the commission, Chickahominy Pipeline argues that it “does not need commission approval to construct the pipeline because (a) Chickahominy will not serve two or more customers; and (b) Chickahominy is not a ‘public utility’ that requires a certificate of public convenience and necessity to construct the pipeline.” Chickahominy Pipeline “has arranged for the purchase of natural gas from a natural gas supplier that will be transported to its certificated facility by Chickahominy,” the company contends. “These are transactions involving private parties over which the commission has no authority to require regulatory approval.” The facility, Chickahominy Power, has been under development since 2016. While the Charles City County Board of Supervisors embraced the project, granting it a local permit that same year, the plans have also provoked sharp backlash from some residents of the county and surrounding areas, as well as environmentalists committed to a transition away from fossil fuels.
Shelby committee approves pipeline setbacks – The Shelby County Commission Land Use Planning, Transportation & Codes Enforcement committee members voted in favor of an ordinance to create distance between all future pipeline developments and residential areas, leading the way for an anti-pipeline ordinance to pass in the full commission meeting next week. On Wednesday, an ordinance to create 1,500-foot setbacks for pipelines from all residential areas was up for a final committee vote. Amendments made include exceptions for existing and new oil pipelines located within the property boundaries of specific developments, such as processing facilities and retail service stations. New pipelines within existing rights of way could seek permission through a special exception process. For decades, Shelby County communities in Southwest Memphis have dealt with having their neighborhoods located near industrial sites, including an oil refinery and a coal ash pond, dealing with cancer rates four times the national average. Shelby County’s remaining untouched assets included a sand aquifer that provides most of Memphis resident’s drinking water. In 2019, Plains All American Pipeline and Valero Energy Corporation announced a joint venture to build a 49-mile pipeline that would travel through Memphis into Mississippi. Because the pipeline would cross through the Davis Wellfield, an area where water is pumped from the aquifer, critics believed the pipeline posed a risk to the county’s drinking water. Months of protests ensued with support nationwide. Groups such as Memphis Community Against the Pipeline and the Southern Environmental Law Firm urged county officials to take action, and in March, commissioners struck down the sale of several land parcels required by the Byhalia project to continue. When the moment came to stand up and do something beyond symbolic support, said Justin Pearson, co-founder of the organization Memphis Community Against the Pipeline, commissioners showed their support and voted against the sale on March 22, “which provided a lot of wind in our backs and provided an opportunity for us to continue to galvanize and organize as a community to stop the Byhalia Connection Pipeline.”
EIA Now Predicting $4 Handle for Henry Hub Natural Gas in 4Q2021 - Coming off a strong run to close out the summer cooling season, Henry Hub natural gas spot prices would likely go on to average $4/MMBtu during the fourth quarter, the Energy Information Administration said in updated projections released Wednesday. The $4.00 forecast for 4Q2021 prices, published in the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, comes as higher-than-expected power sector demand and production impacts from Hurricane Ida helped send prices surging to an average of $4.07 in August. July prices averaged $3.84, the agency said. In last month’s report, EIA forecast an average Henry Hub price of $3.42 for 2021 overall and $3.71 for 3Q2021. “We expect the Henry Hub spot price will average $4 in 4Q2021 as the factors that drove prices higher during August lessen,” researchers said. “Forecast Henry Hub prices this winter reach a monthly average peak of $4.25 in January and generally decline through 2022, averaging $3.47 for the year amid rising U.S. natural gas production and slowing growth” in liquefied natural gas exports. EIA said it expects GOM production to “gradually come back online” during the first half of September, eventually averaging 1.5 Bcf/d for the month overall before rising back to 2.1 Bcf/d for the fourth quarter. U.S. dry natural gas production is set to average 92.7 Bcf/d for the second half of this year, versus 91.7 Bcf/d for the first six months of 2021. Output is set to continue rising to 95.4 Bcf/d in 2022 as stronger crude oil and natural gas prices incentivize enough drilling to sustain output growth, according to the agency. Storage inventories exited the month of August at an estimated 2.9 Tcf, or 7% below the five-year average, EIA said
Until Production Settles, Natural Gas Prices Will Continue Their Uptick - One luxury of our country’s shale boom is the way it has created really low natural gas prices. Prices were once up to $13 per MMBtu as recently as the last decade, but since 2014, they have mostly stayed in the two-to-three dollar range.Yet this year, domestic natural gas prices have again been climbing up, even though predictions remain that we have enough natural gas resources to last us decades.Last month, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price hit $4.07 per MMBtu, the highest summertime rate since 2014. And even that’s not the highest rate at the Henry Hub this year - it reached $5.35 per MMBtu in February, driven by the cold spell that month in several central states. In Texas, Houston Ship Channel spot prices shot up to $400 per MMBtu on February 16, raising financial chaos in the Texas power markets.Yet, the persistence of these higher prices, long after the cold spell, indicates that more than just a freak storm is at play. “During this hot summer across the U.S., natural gas supplies - including stored natural gas - have been drawn down more than usual,” . “These relatively higher prices are likely to persist through to the spring as natural gas storage facilities replenish their supplies.”Domestic natural gas comes from two types of sources. The first category consists of hydrocarbon reservoirs that are predominantly natural gas such as Haynesville shale, the Marcellus shale, and the Utica shale. But it is also an associated product of crude oil in places like the Permian Basin, meaning that a significant portion of natural gas supply is tied to the production of oil and drilling in the oilfields.The shale revolution drove the drilling of many such wells with the associated gas produced, creating a glut of natural gas.During the pandemic, the contraction of oil production in places like the Permian shale last year also reduced the supply of accompanying natural gas.Despite this contraction, prices quickly fell to $1.63 per MMBtu in June 2020. It was triggered by the drop in manufacturing that had been caused by the pandemic-related disruption to supply chains. Yet this where the reasons behind natural gas pricing gets a little more complicated. For while the pandemic had an immediate downward impact, the overall U.S. demand for natural gas has been growing. The U.S. currently produces and consumes about 31.5 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus) of natural gas, up from 24.5 quadrillion Btus in 2010. This raises the question of how domestic supply is responding to this expected demand increase. If the Permian does not recover to prior levels of activity, and it is not expected to do so, those companies that are primarily natural gas producers in the Haynesville, Marcellus, and Utica will increase their drilling activity. Even George Mitchell’s original gas shale play in the Barnett shale will see new activity. If oil prices remain in the $70 per barrel level, growth in oil production may resume and may increase the supply of natural gas.
U.S. natgas slides 3% on milder weather view, post-Ida restarts - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped about 3% on Tuesday as forecasts projected milder weather and energy firms continued efforts to restart facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast after Hurricane Ida. Front-month gas futures for October delivery fell 14.4 cents, or 3.1%, to settle at $4.568 per million British thermal units, ending a session down for the first time in five sessions. Energy companies continued efforts to restart facilities with Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the largest U.S. Gulf Coast producer, redeploying personnel to its Auger asset and Enchilada/Salsa assets. "There are some expectations that more offshore production will be returning this week in the Gulf of Mexico," said Marshall Steeves, energy markets analyst at IHS Markit, adding that fewer cooling degree days with the summer season coming to a close further weighed on gas prices. "But storage is still tight and we're probably going to see more lower-than-average injections as long as Ida remains a force and as offline production is going to be slow to return over the course of this week," Steeves added. Data provider Refinitiv said total U.S. production has averaged 89.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 92.0 bcfd in August. Goldman Sachs also said in a note that recent tighter-than-consensus storage injections added to existing winter storage concerns and further increased the winter risk premium priced in the market. The bank raised its price forecasts for summer and winter 2022 and winter 2023 by $0.15. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico rose to an average 5.9 bcfd so far this month, from 6.2 bcfd in August, but were slightly lower than June's monthly record of 6.7 bcfd. With European and Asian gas both trading over $18 per mmBtu, compared with just under $5 for the U.S. fuel, analysts expect U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to remain elevated.
U.S. natgas futures jump 7.6%, hit $5 for the first time since 2014 -(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared about 10% on Wednesday, hitting $5 during the session on expectations that warm weather would lift demand for gas-fired generation to power air conditioners, with sustained production outages due to Hurricane Ida also driving prices to a level last seen in late February 2014. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery jumped 34.6 cents, or 7.6%, to settle at $4.914 per million British thermal units. The session high was $5.010 per mmBtu. The short-term weather forecast has more weighted cooling degree days, and multiple regions in the United States are still pretty hot. "There's a good demand story there," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis. Analysts said prices also drew support from a slow return to production in the Gulf of Mexico after Ida. "Yesterday was a strong day in Europe and that ended up potentially bleeding into United States gas markets, and with where international prices are trading right now, net backs are massive, so we don't see any decline soon in U.S. prices," Didona said. With European TRNLTTFMc1 and Asian JKMc1 gas both trading well over $18 per mmBtu, compared with just about $5 for the U.S. fuel, analysts expect U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to remain elevated. Temperatures over the next two weeks are estimated to be warmer than usual with 150 cooling degree days (CDDs) projected compared with a 30-year average of 122 CDDs for the period. This is also higher than the 10-year normal and the same time last year. CDDs, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). "Mexico has been strong and they are pulling a lot of demand so the net export picture in the U.S. should remain rather robust right on through the winter season,"
US natural gas storage fields adds 52 Bcf, over market expectations | S&P Global Platts - US natural gas storage fields added 52 Bcf of working gas for the week ended Sept. 3, according to an Energy Information Administration report released Sept. 9. The addition was much more than the market expected for the week, however, the report failed to quell the rally at Henry Hub as futures sustained highs not seen since 2008. The addition was well above the 33 Bcf expected by an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts and was completely outside the wide range of estimates that spanned from 24 to 48 Bcf. However, it still trailed the five-year average injection by 13 Bcf. The working gas inventories stood at 2.923 Tcf following the addition, according to the EIA report. US storage stands at 592 Bcf, or 17% less than previous year's level of 3.515 Tcf. It was also 7.4%, or 235 Bcf, less than the five-year average of 3.158 Tcf. The injection was more than the 20 Bcf build reported in the previous week. Even as the inventory report painted a more bearish picture of US supply-demand balances week over week, bullish price momentum continued in the Sept. 9 trading session. Henry Hub futures continued to build on prior gains following the release of the weekly storage report. The NYMEX Henry Hub October contract rose 8.5 cents to $5.00/MMBtu during trading Sept. 9. The prompt month contract in September has not averaged this high since 2008. The winter strip -- November through March -- rose 7 cents to average $5.01/MMBtu, with only March trading below $5. This followed a massive rally Sept. 8 that saw winter gas prices rise by over 30 cents, propelling the benchmark to multiyear highs. At the root of the increases is the decline in production, which stood at at 89 Bcf/d on Sept. 9 as offshore production levels remained below 800 MMcf/d, struggling to rebound following Hurricane Ida, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. A heat wave throughout the Southwest is also pressuring an already tight market, pushing prices along El Paso South Mainline over $28/MMBtu. While Ida led to a price spike in the near term, reliability concerns this winter are becoming more apparent, particularly in the Southeast and Texas as storage continues to be withdrawn from, widening the deficit to over 100 Bcf behind the five-year average and 300 Bcf below 2020. Most regional hubs are at a premium to Henry Hub this winter, with prices in the mid-to-high-$5/MMBtu range. Prices can still climb higher as gas-to-coal switching reaches capacity. That would place fuel oil as the next possible switching channel. However, gas at above $12/MMBtu would be needed for that to happen. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 55 Bcf build for the week ending Sept. 10. This would be 24 Bcf less than the five-year average with less than two months remaining in the injection season.
U.S. natgas futures hit 7-year high again, despite big storage build (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose to a seven-year high on Thursday as production remains slow to recover after Hurricane Ida battered the Gulf Coast, despite forecasts for less hot weather next week and a bigger than expected storage build last week. Since Ida started targeting the U.S. Gulf Coast in late August, gas futures have surged over 25% due mostly to the combination of low Gulf of Mexico production, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports continued hot weather across much of the country. That heat has been especially extreme in the U.S. West, where another heat wave is baking California. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 52 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 3. That was more than the 40-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 65 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average increase of 65 bcf. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 2.923 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 7.4% below the five-year average of 3.158 tcf for this time of year. That means U.S. utilities have stored less gas than normal for the winter heating season when demand for the fuel peaks. Front-month gas futures rose 11.7 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $5.031 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since February 2014 for a second day in a row. On Wednesday, the contract soared almost 8%. In the power market, prices for Thursday topped $300 per megawatt hour (MWh) at the Mid Columbia (Mid C) hub in Washington State and at Palo Verde in Arizona, and over $200 at South Path 15 (SP-15) in Southern California as consumers crank up their air conditioners to escape another heat wave. Those are the highest prices for Mid C since July, Palo Verde since June and SP-15 since February. The California Independent System Operator (ISO), which operates the power grid for most of California, declared a flex alert for Wednesday and Thursday evenings, urging consumers to conserve energy when solar power stops working as the sun goes down and the drought-parched grid becomes more reliant on gas-fired generators and imports from other states that are also suffering from the heatwave. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had fallen from an average of 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in August to 89.6 bcfd so far in September, with most of the losses in the Gulf Coast area. That compares with an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold near 86.9 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv projected on Wednesday as a cooler outlook will cause power generators to burn less gas to keep air conditioners humming. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has risen from an average of 10.5 bcfd in August to 10.7 bcfd so far in September as buyers around the world buy all the super-chilled gas the United States can produce. That compares with a record 11.5 bcfd in April. Gas in Europe and Asia was trading around $19 per mmBtu, compared with near $5 for the U.S. fuel. That put gas prices at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, the European benchmark, at a record high.
Natural Gas Forward Prices Flirt with $5 as Slow Production Recovery Intensifies Supply Concerns -- Natural gas forward prices exploded higher through the trading period ending Sept. 8 as hefty production outages lingered following Hurricane Ida, creating more uncertainty about whether U.S. supplies would be sufficient for the winter. October fixed prices rallied by an average of 26.0 cents, while prices for the November and winter (November 2021-March 2022) strips each rose by an average 30.0 cents, according to NGI’s Forward Look. In a midday update Thursday, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said about 77% of the natural gas and 76% of the oil produced in the Gulf of Mexico remained offline after Ida crashed ashore near Port Fourchon, LA, Aug. 29 as a Category 4 storm. Crews were still evacuated from 71 production platforms, or around 13% of the manned infrastructure that remains in the same location throughout a project’s duration. Four moored rigs also remained unmanned, equivalent to around 36%. In addition, two dynamically positioned rigs, which are unmoored, had not returned to their drilling locations. Meanwhile, Entergy Corp. said it had restored power to nearly 80%, or 728,000 of the 948,000 total customers that lost power after the storm. Most of the affected transmission lines also had been returned to service. Full power restoration, however, was expected to take a few more weeks. Though more than 1,000 miles away, West Coast markets had their share of volatility this week thanks to tight supplies and continued heat. The hot weather prompted calls for power conservation and resulted in an energy storage facility being forced offline after batteries overheated and were damaged. SoCal Citygate October fixed prices jumped 63.0 cents from Sept. 2 to 8 to reach $7.216/MMBtu, Forward Look data showed. Basis for the prompt month was up 35.0 cents to plus $2.302. Steeper increases were seen further out the forward curve amid the dire storage picture that’s been exacerbated by the ongoing drought and impact on hydroelectric generation. SoCal Citygate November fixed prices shot up 94.0 cents during the period to reach $8.646, while the winter strip picked up 92.0 cents to average $9.43. Gains moderated a bit for next summer (April-October), which climbed 34.0 cents to $5.960. What are not yet moderating are the sweltering conditions in the region.
October Natural Gas Futures Retreat, but Supply Concerns Fester; Cash Slides - The October Nymex contract fell 9.3 cents day/day and settled at $4.938/MMBtu. November lost 9.9 cents to $4.973. Spot gas prices dipped lower as well. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 5.5 cents to $4.860. After crashing ashore in Louisiana Aug. 29 as a Category 4 hurricane, Ida left in its path severe wind and flooding damage that curbed production in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) in the days since. As of Friday, nearly three-quarters of the natural gas produced in the GOM, 1.68 Bcf/d, remained offline, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). Based on data as of midday on Friday, 65 oil and gas production platforms still were unmanned, which was more than 11%, BSEE said. Personnel also had not been returned to three moored rigs, or 28% working in the offshore. In addition, two unmoored rigs, or 13%, remained off location from where they were positioned before the hurricane. Output was already modest ahead of Ida, with production averaging about 92 Bcf/d over the summer months – below the levels prior to the coronavirus pandemic and roughly 1 Bcf/d below what many analysts have said is needed to align supply with demand before winter. NatGasWeather noted Friday that “a new tropical disturbance will attempt to strengthen” in the far western GOM and then track toward the South Texas/Mexico border by Tuesday, “with heavy showers.” The system could force further delays in GOM production, the firm said. On the other side of the equation, domestic demand proved strong throughout the summer months amid stifling heat over much of the Lower 48,. At the same time, utilities in Europe and Asia clamored for U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) because of supply constraints on both continents. LNG exports continue to soak up excess supply and feed imbalance worries. LNG feed gas volumes topped 11 Bcf on Friday – within striking distance of record levels.
Natural gas prices are rising and could be the most expensive in 13 years this winter - Natural gas prices have doubled this year and are expected to continue to rise, resulting in larger winter heating bills for some consumers and higher costs for electric utilities. Natural gas is plentiful in the United States and has been cheap for years, so the jump in prices this year is eye popping. In the futures market, the natural gas contract for October rose above $5 per one million British thermal units, or mmBtus, for the first time since February, 2014. Besides electricity and heating demand, natural gas is an important feed stock and is used in the processing of chemicals, fertilizers, paper and glass, among other products. "We haven't had tight supplies of natural gas in years. We're staring that down this year," Natural gas prices have been caught in their own perfect storm, of lower supplies and rising demand. Prices raced higher, first as unprecedented heat stoked air conditioning demand across the U.S., particularly in the Northwest. As a result, less gas was put into storage for winter months, during the key summer injection period. Add to that any colder than normal winter weather and prices could jump more. "Anything closer to [or colder than] a full standard-deviation form average would likely trigger a price spike to cause demand destruction with gas above $10/mmBtu," Goldman Sachs analysts note. Gas prices were last that high in 2008. Kilduff said natural gas is tied tightly into the economy, and for a long period prices did not matter. Now, utilities will pay more and so will some consumers who have real-time pricing schemes. "You could easily see it reach $6 and you could see it get to $8 to $10," he said. "Any early season cold weather outbreak will juice this thing." The upward pressure on gas prices is global, and since the U.S. is an exporter, prices in North America are now more influenced by prices in other markets. "We've seen it all over the last year with the pandemic. We saw natural gas prices around the world at $2. It was $2 here in the U.S., $2 in Europe and $2 in Asia," said Cheniere Energy CEO Jack Fusco on CNBC. "As the economies began to ramp back up, and countries and companies worldwide decided natural gas was the fuel of choice for clean energy transmission, the demand has just skyrocketed." Fusco said prices for the same gas that is $5 in the U.S. is now $20 or more in Europe and Asia. He also said his company, which exports liquified natural gas, is sold out of 90% of its production for the next 20 years. Now, the U.S. industry is also suffering from lower production due to Hurricane Ida, with 77.3% of Gulf of Mexico production still shut-in. According to the Energy Information Administration, the level of gas in U.S. storage is 7.4% below the five-year average and 16.8% below the level last year at this time. Natural gas prices are flaring as the Biden Administration is pressing for higher dependence on renewable energy in the electricity market.
‘Violent Price Upside’ Potential Seen for Winter Natural Gas Prices - Recent market tightness could herald “violent price upside” for U.S. natural gas this winter if temperatures are colder than average, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Commodities Research. In a recent note to clients, Goldman analysts led by Samantha Dart, Damien Courvalin and Huan Wei said bullish Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage data and strong power burns in August have added to “existing winter storage concerns, further increasing the winter risk premium priced in the market.” Henry Hub prices “have broken out of the $3.85-$4.15/MMBtu trading range seen since late July,” rallying about 20% over the past week to $4.71 as of last Friday, they noted.“The move was initially triggered by a large tight surprise in storage injections released by the EIA on Aug. 26, at the same time that hotter-than-average weather kept late-August burns at the highest levels for the month.”Under an average winter weather scenario, the Goldman team believes the market can balance at $3.65, about $1.10 below current winter 2021-2022 forwards. Likewise, “a small colder deviation from average would likely be solved” through gas-to-coal (G2C) substitution against “Appalachia coal in a $5.00-6.50 gas price range,” the analysts said. Winter temperatures that are one standard deviation colder than average though, could trigger a price rally above $10.00, with U.S. average gas demand increasing by more than 3 Bcf/d. “This suggests that gas-to-Appalachia-coal substitution alone is likely insufficient to rebalance the U.S. gas market under a colder-than-average winter, in which case U.S. gas prices would continue to move higher, looking for further demand destruction,” the analysts said. “Such a price level could be well above $10, in order to reduce export margins from U.S. industrial users relative to users of global gas prices, currently priced at $17-20 for the winter.” Shutting the U.S. arbitrage (arb) window to reduce liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand “would require an initial $10 rally in Henry Hub prices to about $15, given current global gas prices,” the analysts said. However, unless Europe and Asia “experience a warm winter and do not require U.S. supplies, we would expect global gas prices to rally following Henry Hub in this scenario in order to keep the U.S. LNG export arb open.” Therefore, “Given this risk asymmetry for winter natural gas prices and the potential for violent price upside under colder-than-average weather, we recommend that consumers protect themselves using far-out-of-the-money options to compensate for the sharp increase in implied volatility in recent months and weeks,” the Goldman team said.
Give Us Regulation, Not a New Tax, Gas Groups Beg Congress - The threat of a new fee on methane emissions has put the oil and gas industry in the unusual position of pleading with lawmakers for more federal regulation instead. More than 100 trade groups, local chambers of commerce and other organizations from New Mexico to Pennsylvania are warning that the fee proposed to help pay for Democrats’ $3.5 trillion spending plan would roil energy markets and boost consumer bills nationwide. In a letter to Senate leaders Tuesday, they argued a far better approach is to rely on existing federal regulations and tougher new mandates the Environmental Protection Agency is set to propose within weeks.
For a livable future, 60% of oil and gas must stay in the ground -To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, countries will likely need to set hard limits on the extraction of fossil fuels in addition to supporting the deployment of clean energy. That’s one of the key takeaways of a new study published in the journal Nature on Wednesday by energy and climate modelers from University College London. The researchers set out to estimate how much of the world’s fossil fuel reserves must remain in the ground in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures — the target named in the Paris Agreement that would prevent the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. They found that in order to have a 50 percent chance of achieving this target, 58 percent of known oil reserves, 59 percent of natural gas reserves, and 89 percent of coal reserves cannot be extracted. This means that global oil and gas production must decline 3 percent on average every year until 2050. “I think there’s an increasing recognition that policy measures and action targeted at production itself is going to be needed to get the kind of decline rates that we’re thinking about here,” said Steve Pye, one of the study’s authors, during a press call on Tuesday.In their presentation to reporters, the authors stressed that these numbers are likely an underestimate of the scale and speed of fossil fuel production cuts required for two reasons. The first has to do with the carbon budget — the amount of carbon that can be emitted before the planet warms more than 1.5 degrees C. Because of the uncertainty built into climate modeling, there is no universally agreed upon carbon budget, but rather a range that scientists estimate will give us a better or worse chance of achieving temperature targets. The paper uses a carbon budget of 580 billion metric tons, an amount that is estimated to give only a 50 percent chance of stabilizing the global climate at 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial temperatures. “If we want a higher chance of staying below 1.5 C, then we have to of course keep more carbon in the ground,” James Price, a co-author of the study, said during the press call. Secondly, the model that the authors used to arrive at their fossil fuel quota actually allows the world to emit more than 580 billion metric tons of carbon and for temperatures to temporarily rise to 1.8 degrees C before settling back down to 1.5 degrees C by the end of this century. Fossil fuels don’t go away entirely in this scenario — oil and gas are still used for chemical feedstocks and aviation past 2050. Climate stabilization at 1.5 degrees C is made possible by “negative emissions technologies” that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and compensate for the overshoot in emissions. “There is substantial uncertainty as to whether these largely unproven technologies can be deployed as quickly, and at the scale required, and just how sustainable they are,” Price continued.
Port Fourchon - major oil and gas hub - still in 'Recovery Phase' after a direct hit by Ida, causing gas prices to rise, U.S. Category 4 Hurricane "Ida" made a direct hit to Port Fourchon, the most important oil and gas hub in the Gulf of Mexico on August 29, 2021, causing extensive damage and putting the facility in 'Recovery Phase.' Ida's impacts to Port Fauchron included extreme and hurricane-force winds up to 240 km/h (150 mph) and a storm surge of 3.6 to 4.3 m (12 - 14 feet) in places.1 The damage is extensive. It's far-reaching and we have a long recovery ahead of us, said Chett Chiasson, executive director of the port, serving over 90% of the Gulf of Mexico's deep-water oil production.2 "What we're seeing is tons of damage, obviously, being exactly where the landfall was for Hurricane Ida. There are vessels, you know, in places that they're not supposed to be," Chiasson told NPR. "There is no electricity. There will not be electricity for a long time. And in our area, in our community [Lafourche Parhis, population ~100 000], we have no running water." Chiasson estimated it's going to be weeks to get things back and running. Asked about the ripple effects on fuel production expected across the state of Louisiana, Chiasson said: "With Port Fourchon services, day-to-day, efficient services, the most efficient in the world in terms of servicing offshore energy, the prices are going to go up because we're - day to day, we service about 16 to 20% of the nation's entire oil supply." "Every day that that production does not get back up and running is every day our supply is limited and is going to continue to cause prices." "And what everybody looks at mainly is prices at the pump for fuel for vehicles. It is going to go up because there's no efficient services for the offshore oil and gas industry. And it's certainly not back up and running as of yet." "There is a $46 million loss to the oil and gas industry and a $500 million loss toward the national gross domestic product each day the port is closed," Chiasson said.3 The South Lafourche Leonard Miller Jr. Airport in Galliano, which is owned by the Port Commission and primarily serves the oil and gas companies by flying workers to and from platforms, is operational since August 30, 'so helicopters and assessment teams were coming in to do things by air.' As of Friday, September 3, more than 93% of the Gulf's oil and 89% of natural gas production remained shut down as companies assessed the platforms and rigs for damage, according to the federal Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Workers had begun to return, with about half the platforms and a quarter of the rigs still evacuated.3 "Port Fourchon remains in Recovery Phase in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida," port authorities said in a statement made September 3.4 "Port and tenant assessment teams have been on the ground and have been actively working toward gaining access TO and WITHIN Port Fourchon, clearing storm debris and ensuring safe passage.
US offshore oil output lags as Louisiana refiners restart after Ida --Damage to oil production facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico kept output largely halted on Sunday, a week after Hurricane Ida made landfall, according to offshore regulator the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). Energy companies have been coping with damaged platforms and onshore power outages and logistical issues, slowing efforts to restart production. Some 88% of crude oil output and 83% of natural gas production remained suspended. About 1.6 million barrels of crude oil remained offline, with only about 100,000 barrels added since Saturday. Another 1.8 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas output also was shut-in, the regulator said. According to Press TV, a total of 104 oil and gas platforms and five rigs remain evacuated on Sunday, down from the 288 originally evacuated. Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSa.L), the largest US Gulf Coast producer, on Sunday began redeploying staff to its Enchilada and Salsa platforms, while 80% of the company's operated production remained shut. Shell was evaluating on Sunday the damage to its West Delta-143 offshore platform, which transfers about 200,000 barrels of oil and gas per day from three offshore oil fields. The lower Mississippi River and New Orleans ports were reopened to traffic and cargo operations, the Coast Guard said on Saturday, allowing the resumption of grain, metal and energy shipments. Four oil refineries in Louisiana have initiated restart processes after Hurricane Ida knocked out most of the state's oil processing. Five others have yet to resume operations, the US Department of Energy said on Sunday. Three oil refineries in the Baton Rouge area and one near New Orleans have begun to restart units, the DOE said, without naming the facilities. The four account for 1.3 million barrels per day of US refinery capacity. Utilities have restored electric power to seven of the impacted refineries since Friday, the DOE said.
U.S. offshore oil recovery begins with ports, refineries restarting - U.S. Gulf Coast energy companies on Saturday got a boost from the reopening of ports and restart of oil refineries shut by Hurricane Ida, but damage to key facilities still crimped oil production. The ninth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season has cut more U.S. oil and gas production than any of the eight named storms to strike the U.S. Gulf Coast last year. After landfall in Louisiana last Sunday, Ida raced to the U.S. northeast, causing deadly flooding. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the largest U.S. Gulf Coast producer, was still evaluating damage to its West Delta-143 offshore platform, which when operating transfers about 200,000 barrels of oil and gas per day from three offshore oil fields. Shell’s work on a replacement heliport needed to ferry offshore continues, Shell said. Damage to its original facility prevented a return of offshore workers to platforms. Several Louisiana heliports were damaged or without power and access to fuel, slowing crew returns at several major oil producers. Shell’s 230,611 barrel-per-day (bpd) Norco, Louisiana, oil processing plant also remained knocked out by the storm. The refinery sustained damage and assessments continue on its status and at a Geismar, Louisiana, chemical plant, the company said. The White House this week agreed to provide a combined 1.8 million barrels of crude oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to refiners Exxon Mobil Corp, and Placid Refining Company to produce gasoline. Nine refineries were knocked offline by Ida’s winds and utility power losses. Five, including those owned by Exxon, Placid and Marathon Petroleum Corp, could be back online by within two weeks, estimated Robert Campbell, head of oil products research at consultancy Energy Aspects. About 21% of offshore platforms remained unoccupied, and 93% of oil production and 86% of natural gas output were offline, government data released on Saturday showed. Some wells in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for about a fifth of U.S. output, could be shut for weeks, analysts said. The lower Mississippi River and New Orleans ports were reopened to traffic and cargo operations, the Coast Guard said, allowing the resumption of grain, metal and energy shipments. “It was imperative for the economy of the region and entire United States that the river be reopened in a timely manner,” said Brett Bourgeois, executive director of maritime trade group New Orleans Board of Trade. Over 5,000 deep drafts vessels bring cargo in and out of the five major ports, he said. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), near to where Ida made landfall with 150 mile per hour (240 kph) winds, was continuing repairs and assessments of its facilities, it said on Saturday. The LOOP is the only U.S. deepwater oil port, with an offloading platform that can receive more the 1 million barrels a day of crude. Its marine terminal sits 18 miles south of Grand Isle, Louisiana. Utility Entergy Corp said on Saturday most of Baton Rouge should have power restored by Tuesday, followed by most of New Orleans by Wednesday. However, areas between the two could be without electricity through month’s end. More than 700,000 Louisiana homes and businesses remain without power, according to PowerOutage.com.
Noble Declares Force Majeure On Drillship Damaged By Hurricane Ida -- Offshore rig owner Noble Corporation has given a force majeure notice to the customer of the Noble Globetrotter II ultra-deepwater drillship due to sustained damages during Hurricane Ida. Noble said on Thursday that its management was in frequent communication with the ship's crew and was working to facilitate additional transport for some crew members to shore, if needed, as well as replacement personnel to support marine operations. The company added that a small number of crew members were treated for minor injuries. According to Noble, the living quarters of the vessel continue to operate normally with food service, climate control, water, power, and internet systems functional. The vessel's helideck is fully operational, and teams are working through logistical challenges across the Gulf Coast region to resume normal levels of transportation to and from shore. Initial findings from the ship's ongoing condition assessment confirm that several riser joints and the lower marine riser package separated from the rig during the storm and sank to the seabed. Noble stated that efforts were underway to locate and recover that equipment, and the company believes that, if necessary, it can replace any missing or damaged equipment promptly. Additionally, one of the ship's cofferdams in the moonpool area sustained damage during Hurricane Ida. The damaged cofferdam does not compromise the stability or structural integrity of the rig nor the safety of personnel onboard. The vessel successfully secured the well and detached from the blowout preventer in place on the well as part of its departure procedures. Noble provided a force majeure notice to its customer in accordance with the governing drilling services contract. The contract does not contain a right of termination for force majeure. Although the company did not reveal the client in its statement, data in its latest fleet status report shows that the Noble Globetrotter II is under contract with Shell until early September 2023. The company does not expect any impact to its previously issued preliminary 2022 financial guidance and is currently unable to estimate the impact on its 2021 guidance. Noble said that it had insurance coverage for property damage with a $10 million deductible.4:08 AM
Near 90 Percent of GOM Oil Production Still Down -The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) estimated that approximately 88.32 percent of oil production and 82.72 percent of gas production in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) remained shut in on September 5, as a result of storm Ida. According to the BSEE, the percentages amount to over 1.6 million barrels of oil per day and more than 1.8 billion cubic feet of gas per day. A total of 104 production platforms remained evacuated as of Sunday, equating to 18.57 percent of the 560 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, as did five non-dynamically positioned rigs, which is equivalent to 45.45 percent of the 11 rigs of this type currently operating in the GOM. A total of three dynamically positioned rigs remained off location. “The Hurricane Response Team is monitoring offshore oil and gas operators in the Gulf as they return to platforms and rigs after the storm,” the BSEE said in a statement posted on its website. “The team works with offshore operators and other state and federal agencies until operations return to normal,” the BSEE added. “Facilities are being inspected. Once all standard checks have been completed, production from undamaged facilities will be brought back online immediately. Facilities sustaining damage may take longer to bring back online,” the BSEE went on to say. On September 5, the BSEE noted that it will continue to update evacuation and shut-in statistics each day, as appropriate. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has now stopped showing notifications for storm Ida. Two other weather patterns are currently being tracked by the NHC though, including Hurricane Larry, which is forecasted to approach Bermuda during the next few days as a “large and powerful hurricane”, according to the NHC. The other pattern comprises “disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula,” the NHC highlighted. At the time of writing, this pattern has a zero percent chance of cyclone formation within 48 hours, the NHC outlined.
Initial Ida Hit to Production Surpasses Katrina- Hurricane Ida may not have been the deadliest or most damaging weather system ever to smash into the U.S., but its initial impact on Gulf of Mexico oil supply has been greater than any other storm in history. Ida has been responsible for the loss of 16.8 million barrels of output in the ten days since the first production platforms were evacuated. That’s 32% more crude than was lost to Katrina, and 42% more than to Gustav/Ike in comparable periods. The prolonged disruption caused by the 2005 storms eventually led to the deferral of more than 160 million barrels of Gulf of Mexico production. Back then, the disruption caused by Katrina and Rita lasted well into the following year, with some output never restored. How long Ida will continue to curtail Gulf of Mexico production won’t be known until damage assessments are completed.
Clean-up crews respond to large oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Ida - The US Coast Guard has confirmed that clean-up crews are responding to a large oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of Hurricane Ida. US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite images, first reported by the Associated Press on Wednesday, showed a kilometres-long brownish-black slick spreading in coastal waters about 3 kilometres off Port Fourchon, Louisiana, an oil and gas hub. So far, the growing spill appears to have remained out to sea and has not impacted the Louisiana shoreline. There is not yet any estimate for how much oil is in the water, but recent satellite images reviewed by AP appear to show the slick drifting more than 19 kilometres eastward along the Gulf Coast. A satellite image shows an oil slick at a flooded refinery in Louisiana Oil slicks at the flooded Phillips 66 Alliance Refinery in Louisiana. (AP: NOAA) Coast Guard spokesman Lieutenant John Edwards said response teams were monitoring reports and satellite imagery to determine the scope of the discharge. He said the source of the pollution was located in Bay Marchand, Block 4, and was believed to be crude oil from an undersea pipeline owned by Houston-based energy company Talos Energy. Talos leads the clean-up but denies responsibility Talos said it was investigating the cause of the leak, but a statement provided by its spokesperson said field observations indicated the company's assets were not the source. Talos previously leased Bay Marchand, Block 5, but ceased production there in 2017, plugged its wells and removed all pipeline infrastructure by 2019, according to the company. Spokesperson Brian L Grove said it had hired Clean Gulf Associates to respond to the spill, even though the company believed it was not responsible for the oil in the water.
Rush to contain large oil spill in Gulf of Mexico after Storm Ida - Clean-up crews and the US Coast Guard are trying to locate the source of an oil spill spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after deadly Hurricane Ida. Recent satellite photos by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed the slick about two miles (3km) off Port Fourchon, Louisiana. It appears to be coming from a source underwater at an offshore drilling site, the Associated Press reports. Ida hit Louisiana last week, leaving about one million people without power. The hurricane then moved north-east, killing dozens of people and causing devastation in a number of US states. The source of the miles-long oil spill was believed to be in the Bay Marchand area of the Gulf of Mexico, the US Coast Guard said. Spokesman Lt. John Edwards said it was thought to be crude oil from an undersea pipeline owned by Talos Energy. Houston-based Talos Energy said it did not believe it was responsible for the oil in the water, according to the Associated Press. The company has nonetheless hired Clean Gulf Associates, a non-profit group that responds to oil spills, to help contain the pollution. A team of private divers are also trying to locate the source.
Divers identify broken pipeline as source of Gulf oil spill - — Divers at the site of an ongoing oil spill that appeared in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Ida have identified the apparent source as one-foot diameter pipeline displaced from a trench on the ocean floor and broken open. Talos Energy, the Houston-based company currently paying for the cleanup, said in a statement issued Sunday evening that the busted pipeline does not belong to them. The company said it is working with the U.S. Coast Guard and other state and federal agencies to coordinate the response and identify the owner of the ruptured pipeline. Two additional 4-inch pipelines were also identified in the area that are open and apparently abandoned. The company’s statement did not make clear if oil was leaking from the two smaller pipelines, but satellite images reviewed by The Associated Press on Saturday appeared to show at least three different slicks in the same area, the largest drifting more than a dozen miles (more than 19 kilometers) eastward along the Gulf coast. The AP first reported Wednesday that aerial photos showed a miles-long brown and black oil slick spreading about 2 miles (3 kilometers) south of Port Fourchon, Louisiana. The broken pipe is in relatively shallow water, at about 34 feet (10 meters) of depth. Talos said the rate of oil appearing on the surface had slowed dramatically in the last 48 hours and no new heavy black crude had been seen in the last day. So far, the spill appears to have remained out to sea and has not impacted the Louisiana shoreline. There is not yet any estimate for how much oil was in the water. The Coast Guard said Saturday its response teams are monitoring reports and satellite imagery to determine the scope of the discharge, which is located in Bay Marchand, Block 4. Talos previously leased Bay Marchand, Block 5, but ceased production there in 2017, plugged its wells and removed all pipeline infrastructure by 2019, according to the company. The area where the spill is located has been drilled for oil and gas for decades. Federal leasing maps show it contains a latticework of old pipelines, plugged wells and abandoned platforms, along with newer infrastructure still in use. With the source of the oil unclear, Talos hired Clean Gulf Associates to respond to the spill. Clean Gulf, a nonprofit oil-spill response cooperative that works with the energy exploration and production industry, has had two 95-foot vessels at the scene of the spill since Wednesday attempting to contain and recover crude from the water. The Bay Marchand spill is one of dozens of reported environmental hazards state and federal regulators are tracking in Louisiana and the Gulf following the Category 4 hurricane that made landfall at Port Fourchon a week ago. The region is a major production center of the U.S. petrochemical industry. The AP also first reported Wednesday on images from a National Atmospheric and Oceanic Survey that showed extensive flooding and what appeared to be petroleum in the water at the sprawling Phillips 66 Alliance Refinery located along the Mississippi River south of New Orleans. After AP published the photos, the Environmental Protection Agency tasked a specially outfitted survey aircraft to fly over that refinery on Thursday, as well as other industrial sites in the area hardest hit by the hurricane’s 150-mph (240-kph) winds and storm surge. The Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality said a state assessment team sent to the Alliance Refinery observed a spill of heavy oil being addressed with booms and absorbent pads. A levee meant to protect the plant had breached, allowing floodwaters to flow in during the storm and then back out as the surge receded.
Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Not from Our Assets, Talos Energy Says - Following reports of an oil spill in Bay Marchand Block 5, off Louisiana in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, oil company Talos Energy said its assets were not the source of the oil release. "As a responsible operator, Talos has chosen to continue to lead response efforts to contain and control the release to protect the safety of the public and the environment," the company said. "Talos was initially notified of a release observed on Bay Marchand Block 5 in Louisiana state waters on Tuesday, August 31st due to its status as a prior lessee of the block. The Company ceased production from the block in 2017. Subsequently, all Talos wells were appropriately isolated from the producing reservoir according to regulatory standards, and all Talos pipeline infrastructure was removed by 2019," the company said. Following Tuesday's notification, Talos said it quickly activated its response team, and vessels began arriving on site on Wednesday, September 1, to begin oil containment and recovery operations using booms and skimmers. On Saturday, September 4, a lift boat with a dive spread arrived on site, and divers were sent on Sunday to examine possible origins of the discharge. Coast Guard Probing 350 Reports of Oil Spills in Wake of Hurricane Ida "Talos conducted both physical inspections and subsea sonar scans that confirmed Talos assets were not the source or cause of the release. The company has observed several non-Talos-owned subsea pipelines that were likely impacted by Hurricane Ida, including a 12" diameter non-Talos-owned pipeline that appears to be the source of the release. On Monday, September 6th, response personnel installed a containment dome on the affected pipe, which allows for the recovery of the release and transfer to surface vessels," Talos said.
U.S. regulators investigating nearly 350 oil spills after Hurricane Ida -- The U.S. Coast Guard said on Monday it was investigating nearly 350 reports of oil spills in and along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico in the wake of Hurricane Ida. Ida's 150 mile-per-hour (240 kph) winds wreaked havoc on offshore oil production platforms and onshore oil and gas processing plants. About 88% of the region's offshore oil production remains shut and more than 100 platforms unoccupied after the storm made landfall on Aug. 29. The Coast Guard has been conducting flyovers off the coast of Louisiana looking for spills. It is providing information to federal, state and local authorities responsible for cleaning the sites. Flights on Sunday found evidence of a new leak from an offshore well and reported another leak responsible for a miles-long streak of oil was no longer active. A third report of oil near a drilling platform could not be confirmed, it said. Offshore oil producer Talos Energy Inc, which hired divers and a cleanup crew to respond to an oil spill in Bay Marchand, said old pipelines damaged during the storm were apparently responsible. The source of the Bay Marchand leak remains unknown, said Coast Guard spokesman Lieutenant John Edwards. A Coast Guard-led team "will be looking at all potential sources in order to ensure any future risk is mitigated," he said. The spill off the coast of Port Fourchon, Louisiana, had decreased substantially since it was first discovered last week, Talos said. The company is not the owner of the pipelines and had ceased production operations in the area four years ago, said spokesman Brian Grove. An offshore well belonging to S2 Energy was discharging oil about five miles (8 km) away from the Bay Marchand site, the Coast Guard said. The company told the Coast Guard it has secured the wellhead and it was no longer discharging oil.
Gulf Oil Spill Shows Risk From 18,000 Miles of Abandoned Pipe – Bloomberg -An oil spill unleashed by Hurricane Ida is highlighting longstanding concerns about the more than 18,000 miles of decommissioned pipelines that still snake through the Gulf of Mexico, even though they no longer transport crude and natural gas.The spill, roughly three miles from the Louisiana coast, is believed to have sprung from an abandoned 12-inch pipeline that still had oil inside. It appeared on Tuesday to have been contained, but not before it created an oily slick 14 miles long.
Coast Guard: No Active Discharge Near Reported Oil -Following reports of oil spills found along the Southeast Louisiana coast in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, the U.S. Coast Guard said Monday it had conducted overflights Sunday that focused on two locations previously identified for further investigation."Members of the National Strike Force aboard a Coast Guard HC-144 flew over Bay Marchand, south of Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and the Enterprise Offshore Drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico, in a continued effort to track and monitor any threats they may pose to the environment," the U.S. Coast Guard said.Coast Guard said its crews had observed no active discharge at the Bay Marchand site or near the Enterprise site."During the flight, it was discovered that a wellhead belonging to S2 Energy was discharging oil approximately five miles away from the Bay Marchand site. The S2 Energy facility reports they have since secured the wellhead and it is no longer discharging oil," Coast Guard said."S2 Energy has contracted an Oil Spill Response Organization to boom the area in order to mitigate the spread and collect any recoverable product. The impacted area is approximately 100-yards long by 100-yard wide. Estimates of release are yet to be determined," Coast Guard said.The Coast Guard said it was prioritizing nearly 350 reported incidents for further investigation by state, local, and federal authorities in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida.
Oil-soaked birds found near oil spill at refinery after Ida --A summary issued Thursday by the Environmental Protection Agency said it had received 43 notifications of significant inland oil spills and chemical releases in its jurisdiction after Ida. The agency’s compliance arm has issued 10 requests to facility operators seeking information to determine whether federal environmental laws were violated during the storm, potentially triggering penalties and fines. That is a small fraction of the 1,539 reports of pollution a U.S. Coast Guard hotline has received since the Category 4 storm made landfall made landfall Aug. 29 at Port Fourchon, the primary port for the offshore oil and gas industry. The Coast Guard said Thursday it was actively supervising the cleanup and mitigation efforts at 564 sites. Another 197 reports were listed as unverified because there was no remaining evidence of pollution. The Associated Press first reported the spill at the Alliance Refinery on Sept. 1 after reviewing aerial images captured by a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration aircraft. In the days after the hurricane, Phillips 66 repeatedly sought to downplay reports of damage at the company’s sprawling refinery. Asked about reports of levee failures near the refinery the day after Ida hit, Phillips 66 spokesman Bernardo Fallas told AP there was “some water” in the facility and stressed that operations were shut down in advance of the storm. Asked two days after the storm about potential environmental hazards emanating from the facility, Fallas referred a reporter to a statement on the company’s website saying its response is focused “on ensuring the safety and well-being of our employees and our surrounding communities.” On Day Three, after the AP sent Phillips 66 aerial photos showing extensive flooding at the refinery and what appeared to be petroleum in the water, Fallas conceded the company could had “discovered a sheen of unknown origin in some flooded areas” of the refinery and that all pollution had been “secured and contained within refinery grounds” at that time. A Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality assessment team sent to the refinery last week reported a sizable spill of heavy crude oil at the site was being addressed with booms and absorbent pads. A levee meant to protect the plant had breached, allowing floodwaters to flow in during the storm and then back out as the surge receded. Despite the gap in the levee remaining open for days after the storm, Fallas once again asserted Thursday no oil spilled beyond the land owned by Phillips 66.
Reports of Hurricane Ida oil, chemical spills escalate in Louisiana waters –Less than half the reports have been investigated by the Coast Guard The number of reported oil and chemical spills linked to Hurricane Ida has exploded this week, growing from 350 on Monday to more than 2,000 by Wednesday, according to the Coast Guard. While less than half of the spills reported to the National Response Center have been investigated, the number of incidents eventually confirmed seems likely to top the 540 individual spill reports after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. “Two thousand spills is an amazing and sad amount,” said Darryl Malek-Wiley, an organizer with the conservation organization Sierra Club. “It shows that our oil and gas infrastructure is not prepared for hurricanes.” Ida blasted a region chock-full of oil pipelines and wells, refineries and other industrial infrastructure, much of it in or near the Gulf of Mexico. The Coast Guard set up a pollution response team in Baton Rouge after Louisiana and U.S. officials were flooded with reports of oil spills in Ida’s wake. Coast Guard personnel are checking on reported spills via boat and airplane. Most of the pollution incidents are oil spills in the Gulf or Mississippi River. “These can range from an oil drum, a gas can or something more major,” Coast Guard public affairs specialist Sydney Phoenix said. Some of the noteworthy incidents include a broken oil pipeline near Port Fourchon, which produced an 11-mile long sheen, and the flooding of the Phillips 66 refinery at Alliance, below Belle Chasse, which has oiled at least 90 birds. In both cases, the release of oil appeared to have been stopped or contained by Tuesday, nine days after Ida struck. Talos Energy was alerted to the pipeline rupture near Port Fourchon. On Monday, the company installed a containment dome to catch and recover escaping oil. Talos later determined the pipeline was owned by another company.
Photos: Some damaged oil and gas structures leak after Hurricane Ida == The number of reported oil and chemical spills linked to Hurricane Ida has exploded this week, growing from 350 on Monday to more than 2,000 by Wednesday, according to the Coast Guard. While less than half of the spills reported to the National Response Center have been investigated, the number of incidents eventually confirmed seems likely to top the 540 individual spill reports after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Shell Returning Workers To GOM Oil Platform - Supermajor Shell has started redeploying workers evacuated due to Hurricane Ida to the Enchilada/Salsa asset but around 80 percent of its production in the Gulf of Mexico is still offline. Shell said on Sunday that it was still monitoring the impact of Hurricane Ida on its assets in Louisiana and in the communities where it operates. The company added that it began the process of redeploying personnel to the Enchilada/Salsa asset. The Perdido asset in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was never disrupted by the hurricane and Shell’s floating production, storage, and offloading vessel (FPSO) the Turritella – also known as Stones – is currently back online. In the case of personnel working on those particular assets who reported personal impacts from the storm, Shell returned them to shore so they can focus on home and family. Shell’s remaining deepwater assets – Appomattox, Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Auger, and Enchilada/Salsa – remain shut-in. Approximately 80 percent of Shell-operated production is currently offline. Inspections on board confirm that there is no significant structural damage to these deepwater assets impacted by the storm. Damage assessments continue at our West Delta-143 (WD-143) offshore facility, operated by Shell Pipeline. The company stated it was working to understand the full extent of the damage and the degree to which production in the Gulf of Mexico will be impacted. Other Shell Pipeline offshore assets remain evacuated, and the ability to send personnel to them has been impacted by disruption to the logistics network in Southeastern Louisiana. As for the Norco manufacturing facility, Shell continues to assess impacts. The site is still without electrical power and remains in the elevated flare with visible smoking. Air monitoring is being conducted on the fence line and Shell is utilizing a 3rd party resource for air monitoring in the community. According to the latest report by the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), some 88.32 percent of oil production and 82.72 percent of gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remain shut-in due to storm Ida.M
U.S. loans Exxon another 1.5 million barrels of oil from emergency reserve --The U.S. Energy Department said on Thursday it has approved a second loan of 1.5 million barrels of oil to Exxon Mobil Corp from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after damage from Hurricane Ida devastated offshore oil production. “The SPR’s ability to conduct exchanges is a critical tool available to refiners to strengthen the fuel supply chain and mitigate disruptions following emergencies, like Hurricane Ida,” the department said on its website. The department has now authorized loans totaling 3.3 million barrels to help refiners cope with the dearth of oil coming from the U.S. Gulf. Last Thursday, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm authorized a loan of 1.5 million barrels to Exxon’s Baton Rouge refinery.
Hurricane "Ida" among the costliest for oil production since 2005 - Gulf of Mexico oil producers are still struggling to restart operations after the devastating impact made by Category 4 Hurricane "Ida" on August 29, 2021. With Port Fourchon still in 'Recovery Phase' and the majority of the region's offshore production shut, U.S. crude futures have risen more than 10% since August 29.Nearly 79% of the region's offshore oil production remains shut and 80 production platforms are still unoccupied.1According to Facts Global Energy, nearly 18 million barrels of oil have been lost to the market, and the company fears that could rise to 30 million before the end of the year. "Still, that's far less than the 162 million barrels lost in a three-month period in 2005 after back-to-back hurricanes Katrina and Rita."The slow progress in restoring production drove oil prices higher Wednesday, September 8. U.S. crude futures have risen more than 10% since August 29 when Hurricane "Ida"2 made a direct hit to Port Fourchon, the most important oil and gas hub in the Gulf of Mexico, causing extensive damage and putting the facility in 'Recovery Phase.' Ida's impacts to Port Fauchron included extreme and hurricane-force winds up to 240 km/h (150 mph) and a storm surge of 3.6 to 4.3 m (12 - 14 feet) in places.As of September 8, Port Fourchon was still in the 'Recovery Phase.'3 Port authorities said the Lafourche Parish Water District is planning to start sending water to Fourchon on September 9, 2021. Because it may take a day to build up water pressure to adequate levels for mass usage, tenants are asked to keep their facilities' 2” water meters closed for the next 48 hours. That will help to restore water supply for all port users.Bayou Lafourche is closed north of Leeville per US Coast Guard. This portion of Bayou Lafourche north of the port is closed to marine traffic due to multiple obstructions in the channel, especially between the Ted Gisclair Floodgate in Larose and the Leon Theriot Lock in Golden Meadow.NOAA Coast Survey is finalizing the survey process in Bayou Lafourche but is working with limited access due to shoaling and obstructions throughout the channel from Leeville to Larose.’
Natural-gas futures at highest since 2014, oil prices rise on slow Gulf output recovery - Natural-gas futures marked their highest finish since 2014 on Wednesday, while U.S. oil prices posted their first gain in three sessions, with both commodities buoyed by a slow recovery in Gulf of Mexico energy production about 10 days after Hurricane Ida made landfall on the Gulf Coast. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported Wednesday that an estimated 76.88% of oil production and 77.25% of natural-gas production in the Gulf remains shut in. Weekly U.S. data on oil and natural-gas supplies from the Energy Information Administration will be released on Thursday morning. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, October natural gas tacked on 35 cents, or 7.6%, to $4.914 per million British thermal units, the highest front-month finish since February 2014, according to Dow Jones Market Data. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery CLV21, +2.30% rose 95 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $69.30 a barrel.
USCG Hunts for Source of Mysterious Oil Spill in San Juan Harbor - For the past three weeks, the U.S. Coast Guard has been trying to determine the source of a mysterious oil leak that is contaminating a stretch of the waterfront in San Juan Harbor. The active oil discharge is affecting Pier 4 (the San Juan cruise terminal) and Pier 6, both adjacent to the Old San Juan district. The Coast Guard first learned of the oil discharge on July 18, when the Puerto Rico Ports Authority reported an oily sheen in the water just off Pier Four. The responders spotted a storm drain system that was heavily oiled with what appeared to be bunker oil, similar to Bunker C. The USCG activated the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund and contracted environmental response specialist Clean Harbors to remove the spill. Cleanup crews have been regularly using vacuum trucks to suck up the oily waste, and they have installed absorbent boom inside manhole openings to collect discharged oil. To date, the responders have collected and removed about 12,000 gallons of oily water with a petroleum content of about 50 percent. Cleanup crews have also installed containment boom across the length of the piers in order to prevent any more oil from spreading inside the harbor. Sector San Juan said that it has brought in Resolve Marine to try to find the source of the discharge. The salvor has completed its initial survey and presented its first assessment, but the source has not yet been identified. The response crews are now planning an underground survey to find and assess the condition of long-abandoned oil pipelines that were buried in the area in the early or mid-1900s. The lines are no longer in service, but they may well have some residual oil inside. This effort will be somewhat complex because of permitting and access control requirements, and it will mean mobilizing some specialized equipment to San Juan from the mainland. The additional work may take six weeks or longer, depending upon what the team finds. “We are responding and making the necessary notifications throughout the Puerto Rico Government and the City of San Juan to identify the source and stop it from further discharging oil into the San Juan Harbor waterway,” said Capt. Gregory H. Magee, Coast Guard Sector San Juan commander. “We are making every effort to address this concerning situation responsibly and diligently."
US oil, gas rig count rises 6 to 629 on week; Eagle Ford highest since April 2020: Enverus - The US oil and gas rig count rose by six on the week to 629, Enverus said Sept. 9, with the biggest change in the growing Eagle Ford Shale play. The Eagle Ford of South Texas gained five rigs on the week to 48, marking the highest level in the basin since early April 2020, when counts were plummeting as the pandemic’s initial impacts to oil prices and demand deepened. The Eagle Ford had 80 rigs in late February 2020 before totals fell to 58 by early April that year. Operators reined in spending and called a halt to most new activity in response to oil prices that dipped from the $50s/b to the $20s/b. For the week ended April 15, 2020, just 46 rigs were working in the play, and from July and September that year, Eagle Ford rigs totals bottomed out at nine in three separate weeks times. Oil production from the Eagle Ford, which had been 1.3 million b/d in the first two months of 2020, was barely more than 1 million b/d by midyear, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics data. Output hasn’t crept up much since, totaling about 1.1 million b/d in August 2021. “The Eagle Ford is a more mature play with fewer economic resources,” said Taylor Cavey, a Platts Analytics analyst. Moreover, market conditions over the last few years don’t support much in the way of exploration, especially when there is lower hanging fruit in the Permian, For the week ended Sept. 8, 498 oil rigs were active in US basins, up nine from the previous week, with the number of rigs chasing natural gas falling three to 131. The SCOOP-STACK play in Oklahoma also reached a new high not seen since April 2020, gaining three rigs for a total 32. The play had 44 rigs working in its fields around the start of 2020, but as oil prices became more volatile, operators preferred to focus more on the Permian Basin in West Texas/Southeast New Mexico where returns were higher. Current average half-cycle post-tax return rates for the Permian range from about 33% in the eastern part of the basin to about 40% in the western Permian, while in the SCOOP-STACK they are about 25%, according to Platts Analytics. The Permian lost two rigs week on week, leaving 258. The play, which by far is the largest oil basin in the US, had 429 rigs working when oil prices plunged starting in early March 2020. The Haynesville Shale, in East Texas/Northwest Louisiana, lost two rigs on week, leaving 50. Rig counts in the four other major basins were unchanged on the week: the Williston (28 rigs), in North Dakota/Montana; the Denver-Julesburg (13) mostly in Colorado; the Marcellus Shale (32 rigs), mostly in Pennsylvania; and the Utica Shale (12 rigs), largely in Ohio.
Enbridge Slaps Down $3 Billion for North America’s Largest Oil Export Terminal - After scrapping its own plans to construct a deepwater crude oil facility, Enbridge Inc. is set to acquire North America’s largest crude export terminal after agreeing to pay $3 billion in cash for rival Moda Midstream Operating LLC. Under an agreement with EnCap Flatrock Midstream, Enbridge on Tuesday said it would acquire full operating interest in the Ingleside Energy Center near Corpus Christi, TX. The facility, built in 2018, is capable of loading very large crude carrier vessels and comprises 15.6 million barrels of storage and 1.5 million b/d of export capacity. It loaded 25% of all U.S. Gulf Coast exports in 2020, according to Enbridge.“Over the last several years, we’ve been building a strong position in the U.S. Gulf Coast through both natural gas and crude infrastructure,” said Enbridge CEO Al Monaco. “Our strategy is driven by the important role that low cost, sustainable North America energy supply will play in meeting growing global demand.”Enbridge had sought to build its own crude export terminal offshore the Upper Texas coast. The Texas Colt project was being developed with Oiltanking GmbH and Kinder Morgan Inc. Weak demand, however, prompted the company to scuttle the plans in January 2020.Enbridge also had partnered with Enterprise Products Partners LP on the Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT). However, that project has failed to gather much momentum and remains off Enterprise’s backlog.Monaco touted Ingleside terminal’s close proximity to Permian Basin reserves, along with the cost-effective and efficient export infrastructure in place. The terminal is underpinned by 925,000 b/d of long-term take-or-pay vessel loading contracts and 15.3 million barrels of long-term storage contracts, “providing visibility to future cash flows,” according to Enbridge.“Its direct connection to globally competitive Permian and Eagle Ford basins will assure the sustainability of cash flows for many years to come,” management said. Moda CEO Bo McCall called the Ingleside terminal a “flagship asset.” The site of the facility was originally designed by the U.S. Navy to support a carrier battle group, he said, and despite the uncertainty following its closure, “has developed into the nation’s largest exporter of crude oil, creating jobs and economic prosperity for the Coastal Bend.”
Moda Ingleside Deal Propels Enbridge To Leading Role In Crude Exports --In the three years since Moda Midstream acquired Occidental Petroleum’s marine terminal in Ingleside, TX, the company has developed millions of barrels of additional storage capacity, connected the facility to a slew of Permian-to-Corpus Christi pipelines, and increased the terminal’s ability to quickly and efficiently load crude onto the super-size Suezmaxes and VLCCs that many international shippers favor. Moda’s fast-paced efforts have paid off big-time, first by making its Ingleside facility by far the #1 exporter of U.S. crude oil and now with a $3 billion agreement to sell the terminal and related pipeline and storage assets to Enbridge. The transaction, which is scheduled to close by the end of this year, will make Enbridge — already the co-owner of the Seaway Freeport and Seaway Texas City terminals up the coast — the top dog in Gulf Coast crude exports. Today, we discuss the Moda agreement and how it advances Enbridge’s broader Gulf Coast export strategy.One of the most fascinating developments of the Shale Era has been the U.S.’s emergence as a leading crude oil exporter. The transformation, which began in earnest with the lifting of the ban on most crude exports in December 2015, hasn’t been easy — or cheap. Marine terminals designed to receive imported oil needed to be reworked and expanded; existing pipelines had to be repurposed and new pipelines built; and ship channel dredging projects needed to be planned and financed to accommodate larger supertankers. We’ve been chronicling this build-out in a number of blogs, blog series, and Drill Down reports, including How Much More Can She Stand and, more recently, Leaders of the Pack, which focused on the three leading export terminals in 2020 — the Moda Ingleside Energy Center (MIEC) near Corpus Christi, the Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal (EHT) in Houston, and the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) — which together accounted for nearly half of export volumes last year. In the first eight months of 2021, South Texas Gateway (MIEC’s neighbor in Ingleside), has moved up to the #3 spot, displacing LOOP (at least for the time being), but MIEC is still way out front, sending out an average of 656 Mb/d in the January-through-August period, compared with runner-up EHT’s 366 Mb/d and South Texas Gateway’s 257 Mb/d.As shown in Figure 1, the Moda Ingleside terminal (striped yellow-and-white bar segments) regularly accounts for a substantial share of Corpus Christi’s total crude export volumes (yellow bar segments plus striped yellow-and-white bar segments) and often equals or exceeds the volumes being exported by all the terminals in the Houston area (green bar segments).
Rep. Ilhan Omar, 'Squad' urge Biden to stop Line 3 pipeline - U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar stood with three congressional colleagues along the shore of the Mississippi River on Friday and asked President Joe Biden to stop construction on the nearly complete Enbridge pipeline built to transfer oil from Canada to Superior, Wis."We have been encouraged by Joe Biden's boldness so far," Omar said, referencing his January decision to cancel a border-crossing permit for the Keystone XL pipeline that would have carried oil from Canada to Nebraska. "Now we have another chance to reject a moving pipeline. We hope you will act."Her message to Biden marked an intensified political push for federal intervention in the $3 billion project, the subject of a letter to the presidentsigned by 63 elected officials Monday. In that letter, and again during a news conference Friday at Minneapolis' Boom Island Park, Omar and other Democrats said the Enbridge project has raised concerns about violations of Indigenous land treaties, violence against Indigenous women and environmental impacts.Members of Gov. Tim Walz's administration, which handled a large portion of the project's permitting, on Wednesday sent a point-by-point response to members of Congress and the Legislature calling some of those claims "false or misleading."Minnesota Republican legislators condemned the visit from the four members of Congress — all women of color who are part of the progressive "Squad" in Washington — saying the trip "will only serve to incite the obstructionists."Along with U.S. Reps. Cori Bush, D-Mo.; Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass.; Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich.; and state Sen. Mary Kunesh, Omar will visit Bemidji and other parts of northern Minnesota this weekend to speak with members of Indigenous communities and others who have been protesting construction of the pipeline, which crosses the Mississippi River twice near its headwaters."The water that flows from this point will carry whatever dirty fossil fuels it picks up right on down to my district," said Bush, who represents the St. Louis area.Tlaib lambasted Enbridge for a massive 2010 oil spill in her home state, as well as for defying Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's orders to shut down the company's Line 5 pipeline out of concern for environmental effects on the Great Lakes. The pipeline replaces the 1960s-vintage original Line 3, which is corroding and can run at only 51% capacity. Enbridge has repeatedly said the new pipeline is a significant safety improvement; it will restore the full flow and boost the company's earnings.
Two Line 3 protests yield different police responses --A week of protests in St. Paul over the Enbridge Line 3 pipeline project last month ended in a pair of law enforcement encounters with vastly different outcomes.Public Safety Commissioner John Harrington hailed his department's work on Aug. 27 negotiating the removal of a teepee that no longer had a permit to be on the Capitol grounds as a "triumph" of community-centered policing.The next day, however, police arrested 69 people outside Gov. Tim Walz's residence as a demonstration escalated to levels state law enforcement leaders say they have not seen in past protests outside the Summit Avenue mansion."From a public safety standpoint we are simply trying to hold the ground so that public conversation, that civil conversation, can take place without anyone being in fear and without anyone being intimidated unnecessarily," Harrington said.Taken together, the multiple protests and police actions both in preparation and response offer a glimpse at how state authorities are navigating a wave of demonstrations, ranging from the controversial pipeline to police reform.Harrington's department and the Minnesota Department of Administration agreed to install another security fence around the Capitol days ahead of last week's Treaties Not Tar Sands event at the Capitol, which drew 2,000 people one day.Event organizers criticized the decision to erect the fence — which has since been removed — and the increased police presence throughout the week. Tensions escalated as demonstrators kept a teepee on the Capitol grounds a day after the event's permit expired.
Sheriff: 23 pipeline protesters arrested in northwestern Minnesota - – Authorities say 23 people were arrested following a pipeline demonstration Tuesday in northwestern Minnesota. The Clearwater County Sheriff’s Office received a call regarding protesters blocking a road. The initial call reported that they were setting up a tee pee and barrels in the roadway and vehicles could not pass through. An early estimate of protesters was between 75-100 people. Several items had been placed in the road, spread out for approximately one mile. The items included a tri-pod, three 55-gallon barrels filled with concrete, an overturned car, a boat and a group of six people in chairs connected with sleeping dragon devices. After dispersal orders were given, 23 people were arrested after refusing to leave. Six people were attached to the 55-gallon barrels, four people attached to the tri-pod, seven attached or near the boat and six that were in chairs connected with sleeping dragons. The sheriff’s office says the process to remove the protesters took about seven hours. A large mess of debris was left to clean up after the extrications and oil had run onto the ground at the overturned car. The people arrested were from Massachusetts, Oregon, Maine, Illinois, South Dakota, Washington D.C., Washington, New York and Texas. They were were being held on probable cause public nuisance and obstructing legal process charges.
Feds, North Dakota to negotiate pipeline policing costs (AP) — Federal and state lawyers will meet in North Dakota next week to negotiate a settlement for money that the state claims it spent on policing protests against the Dakota Access oil pipeline.North Dakota filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in 2019, seeking to recover more than $38 million in damages from the monthslong pipeline protests almost five years ago.State Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem and other state lawyers will meet with attorneys from the Corps and Justice Department at the federal courthouse in Bismarck on Sept. 16. U.S. Magistrate Judge Alice Senechal will preside over the negotiations, which are closed to the public.“We will know on the 16th if they are serious in settling,” Stenehjem said.It’s the first sit-down meeting with state and federal lawyers to work out a settlement, Stenehjem said. Federal judges handling the case have “strongly suggested” the negotiations, he said.If no settlement can be reached, a trial is set for May 1, 2023.Thousands of pipeline opponents gathered in southern North Dakota in 2016 and early 2017, camping on federal land and often clashing with police. Hundreds were arrested over six months.Stenehjem has long argued that the Corps allowed and sometimes encouraged protesters to illegally camp without a federal permit. The Corps has said protesters weren’t evicted due to free speech reasons.The Army Corps of Engineers had argued that it has “limited authority to enforce its rules and regulations” on land it manages.
Interior will launch review of Trump's Arctic oil plan - The Biden administration will review a Trump-era decision to greenlight oil drilling access in most of the National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska, the Interior Department revealed in a court filing yesterday. Management of the NPR-A has become a challenge for the administration, which aims to reform the federal oil and gas program to reduce climate impacts but also recently supported a contested $6 billion oil and gas project within its boundaries. The Trump administration expanded oil and gas developers’ access last year to 84% from 50% of the 23 million-acre reserve. Environmental groups promptly sued, claiming Interior failed to conduct a sufficient analysis under the National Environmental Policy Act and performed a weak assessment of its climate implications. The Biden administration will now examine those issues and could change where drillers can lease and develop crude oil and natural gas. While the review is underway, Interior won’t permit new oil and gas leases on land that the Trump administration opened for oil exploration. Laura Daniel-Davis, Interior’s principal deputy assistant secretary, instructed the Bureau of Land Management last week to begin a review of the NPR-A management plans, tasking the agency to assess whether they complied with President Biden’s climate ambitions. That memo was made public when filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Alaska case last night. In it, Daniel-Davis said the department had yet to decide if it should “withdraw or replace” the final decision document approving the Trump-era management plan. She ordered Interior to complete its review by the new year. Interior spokesperson Tyler Cherry said in a statement yesterday the department was “committed to protecting public health, conserving land, water, and wildlife, and ensuring that management of our public lands and oceans is guided by science, equity, and community engagement.”
Indigenous Group Seeks Trans Mountain Stake | Rigzone -- Natural Law Energy, the Canadian indigenous group that sought a stake in the now defunct Keystone XL pipeline, has shifted its focus to owning part of the Trans Mountain oil sands pipeline to the Pacific. The group is participating in meetings with the Canadian government and has spoken with Project Reconciliation, another organization of First Nations that seeks to own the oil pipeline currently being expanded in Alberta and British Columbia, Travis Meguinis, chief executive officer of Natural Law, said by phone. Meguinis didn’t say how big a stake or how much the group aims to invest. The coalition of Western Canadian First Nations sprang to prominence late last year when it signed a memorandum of understanding with TC Energy Corp. to pursue an equity stake worth as much as C$1 billion ($799 billion) in Keystone XL. U.S. President Joe Biden rescinded a key permit for that pipeline on his first day in office and TC Energy scrapped the project a few months later. British Columbia-based Western Indigenous Pipeline Group, which partnered with Pembina Pipeline Corp. in June, is also among other First Nations groups seeking a stake in Trans Mountain. Canada’s federal government bought Trans Mountain from Kinder Morgan Inc. for C$4.5 billion in 2018 after the company threatened to scrap the line’s expansion amid environmental opposition. The government has pledged to sell the system once the expansion is completed. Alberta’s oil sands industry badly needs more conduits to export its crude, and many hope that indigenous participation will help quell objections to the project.
Talos Files Dispute Notice Against Mexico-- Talos Energy Inc., the U.S. offshore explorer behind Mexico’s largest oil discovery in years, is taking the first step toward an international dispute after control of the field was given to state producer Petroleos Mexicanos. The Houston-based driller sent the Mexican government a dispute notice Friday, a required step before moving to arbitration under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The takeover of the Zama oil field in July was a violation of the USMCA, Talos said in a statement, urging negotiations to avoid further legal action and arbitration. The government of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who has pledged to put the country’s oil riches back in the hands of the state, named Pemex Zama’s operator and gave it a 50.4% stake. It was one of his latest moves to backtrack on the previous administration’s historic reforms to open up Mexico’s energy industry to private investment. “We are still hopeful that a negotiated outcome that fully respects the rule of law is achievable,” Talos Chief Executive Officer Timothy Duncan said in the statement. “We respectfully call upon the Government of Mexico to engage with Talos in meaningful negotiations and consultations.” The company and its partners discovered Zama in 2017 after winning the block in Mexico’s first-ever competitive oil auction, before Lopez Obrador rose to power in late 2018. His government later determined that the Zama field extended past the boundaries of Talos’s block and into a neighboring field belonging to Pemex, and Mexico officials ordered Talos and Pemex to unify the shared reservoir. The Talos-led consortium said it has invested nearly $350 million in the project to date. In November, Mexico’s oil regulator approved Talos’s $875 million capital spending budget for Zama in 2021. Wintershall DEA and Premier Oil Plc are also partners in the oil find. While emphasizing that it wants to resolve the issue without going to court or arbitration, Talos argues that the energy ministry has not shown how it has followed the legal principles required for granting operatorship to Pemex. Those principles include considering competitiveness, transparency and best industry practices. The ministry gave Pemex control of the field only three days after receiving a letter from the state oil producer arguing for operatorship, Talos said. While Pemex won control of the field, it doesn’t have the nearly $2 billion needed to develop the prospect, according to people familiar with the matter.
UK gas output slump helps fuel price rally - UK gas production is down 28% year to date, helping fuel the current European gas price rally, said global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie on Wednesday. Total UK gas production for the January to August period amounted to just 17 billion cubic meters (bcm) down from 24 bcm over the same period last year. Other factors have also contributed to the price rally, including record-high coal and carbon prices, booming Asian LNG demand, and limited growth in Russian pipeline supplies. A production drop of the scale seen in the UK was driven by maintenance and new project delays. In particular, the three-week maintenance of the Forties Pipeline System in June resulted in the shutdown of supply from all 67 field users. Additional work on other parts of the system throughout the year meant groupings such as Elgin/Franklin, Shearwater and ETAP have all been offline for much longer. Operators have also been using this downtime to conduct their own maintenance programs, which has extended the three-week shutdown period at multiple hubs. However, Wood Mackenzie expects UK gas production to recover through the remainder of the year. Indeed, August output has already climbed 72% over July. Still, the summer slump means overall 2021 production will be slightly over 27 bcm compared to 34 bcm in 2019 and 35 bcm in 2020. 'We forecast a rebound to 35 bcm in 2022. The recovery will be driven by the start-up of new gas projects such as Saturn Banks, and others that were deferred from 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. These include Arran, Columbus and Finlaggan. Infill drilling at large producers such as Elgin/Franklin, Tolmount reaching peak production in 2022 and Culzean remaining on plateau throughout 2022 will further contribute,' explained Wood Mackenzie. The consultancy said that Norwegian gas production has also been affected by planned and unplanned maintenances. Continental Europe has been struggling to fill its gas storage ahead of winter and will continue to face tight market conditions throughout winter. Booking additional LNG cargoes on a short-term basis amid growing Asian LNG demand will prove challenging. The UK’s coal capacity has shrunk to just 4 gigawatts - offering less switching potential in periods of high gas prices than previously.
Last Nord Stream 2 Pipe Welded Into Place - The pipelaying vessel Fortuna welded into place the last pipe of the Gazprom-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on Monday, September 6, 2021. The vessel lowered pipe number 200,858, the last pipe of the two strings of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, onto the seabed in German waters. This comes some three months after the first line of the gas pipeline to Germany was completed. As the next step, the section of the pipe coming from the German shore will be connected to the section coming from the Danish waters in a so-called above water tie-in. Nord Stream 2 AG plans to carry out the required pre-commissioning activities with the goal to put the pipeline into operation before the end of this year. As for the $11 billion-worth Nord Stream 2, it is designed as two parallel 48-inch lines, roughly 745 miles long, each starting southwest of St. Petersburg and ending at the German coast at Greifswald. The Nord Stream 2 project is led by Russian giant Gazprom with half of the funding coming from five European partners – Germany’s Uniper, BASF’s Wintershall, Anglo-Dutch Shell, Austria’s OMV, and Engie. The gas pipelines will have the capacity to transport 55 billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year to the EU, for at least 50 years. Nord Stream 2 will be doubling the capacity of the existing Nord Stream gas pipeline and take gas to Europe via Germany, bypassing Ukraine which would deprive it of lucrative transit fees. The project has been a point of contention between Moscow and Washington for years. The United States, which is looking to sell its liquefied natural gas to Europe, claimed several times that Nord Stream 2 would increase Russia’s economic and political leverage over Europe while Moscow and Germany both claim that it is nothing more than a commercial project.
Gazprom not to be able to fully use Nord Stream 2 under European regulations – Poland’s PGNiG chair --The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, if put into operation, must be subject to European regulations. In this case, Gazprom will not be able to operate it at full capacity and will be forced to use Ukraine's gas transmission system for transit. This was stated by the Chairman of the Board of the Polish oil and gas company PGNiG, Pawel Majewski, who spoke at the XXX Economic Forum in Karpacz (western Poland), an Ukrinform correspondent reports. "Completion of the pipeline, taking into account that it will operate in accordance with European regulations, will mean that Gazprom will not be able to use it at full capacity. If it fails to do so, it will have to continue transmitting gas via Ukraine. This is very important. Ukrainians are our allies in the struggle for energy solidarity and its application in the context of the Nord Stream 2 project," Majewski stressed. On the issue of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation in the gas sector, the PGNiG chair stressed that over the past five years, the Polish company had exported to Ukraine more than 3 billion cubic meters of natural gas, including part of it after regasification from the LNG terminal. He noted that gas deposits in Ukraine are currently estimated as Europe’s largest – at about 1 billion cubic meters. Therefore, the Polish company together with its Ukrainian partner, ERU (Energy Resources of Ukraine), sees significant prospects of gas production in Ukraine. "We have previously signed a memorandum on gas exploration in Ukraine. We have an agreement on the use of Ukrainian gas storage facilities, we also have a concession for gas production in western Ukraine near the border with Poland. These deposits are similar to the Polish ones in Podkarpackie Voivodeship and we hope for success," Majewski emphasized. He added that PGNiG has agreements with Polish companies Geofizyka Torun and Exallo Drilling, which are engaged in gas exploration, seismic research, and drilling, so they are allowed to perform this work in Ukraine. "Therefore, we perceive the Ukrainian market as very promising," said the chairman of the board of PGNiG.
High Natural Gas Prices Strain Europeans, Weighing on Recovery As the world struggles to recover from the pandemic, soaring natural gas prices threaten to become a drag on the economies of Europe and elsewhere. Wholesale prices for the fuel are at their highest in years — nearly five times where they were at this time in 2019, before people started falling ill with the virus. The high costs feed into electric power prices and have begun showing up in utility bills, weighing on consumers whose personal finances have already been strained by the pandemic. The price jumps are unusual because demand is typically relatively low in the warmer summer months, raising alarms about the prospects for further increases when demand jumps in the winter. Spanish households are paying roughly 40 percent more than what they paid for electricity a year ago as the wholesale price has more than doubled, prompting angry protests against utility companies. “The electricity price hike has created a lot of indignation, and this is of course moving onto the streets,” said María Campuzano, spokeswoman for the Alliance against Energy Poverty, a Spanish association that helps people struggling to pay energy bills. The pain is being felt across Europe, where gas is used for home heating and cooking as well as electric power generation. Citing record natural gas prices, Britain’s energy regulatory agency, Ofgem, recently gave utilities a green light to increase the ceiling on energy bills for millions of households paying standard rates by about 12 percent, to 1,277 pounds, or $1,763, a year. Several trends are to blame for soaring prices, including a resurgence of global demand after pandemic lockdowns, led by China, and a European cold snap in the latter part of winter this year that drained storage levels. The higher-than-expected demand and crimped supply are “a perfect storm,” said Marco Alverà, chief executive of Snam, the large gas company in Milan. The worry is that if Europe has a cold winter, prices could climb further, possibly forcing some factories to temporarily shut down. “If it is cold, then we’re in trouble,” Mr. Alverà said.
Global gas price surge threatens to dent economic recovery: Report - Natural gas prices are experiencing a historic surge, and that’s bad news as fuel costs are already at record seasonal highs in most major markets and are likely to rise further, threatening the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. The coming winter could give the world a painful lesson in how gas has become widespread and vital to the economy, reported Bloomberg. Affordable prices can lower households’ spending and lower their wages through inflation, giving central bankers some tough policy choices. Worse yet, real supply shortages could disable large parts of the industry, or even trigger blackouts in developing countries, potentially leading to social unrest. “Energy lies at the base of the economy,” said Bruce Robertson, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “High energy prices reverberate through the supply chain” and could put a dent in the nascent recovery, he said. Energy costs are rising around the world as an improvement in demand from the worst of the Covid-19 lockdowns is hit by a supply crunch. Oil has already gone through a protracted rally that began in late 2020 and ended in July at a multi-year high above $75 a barrel. The gas began to rise in the early summer in the Northern Hemisphere, when it became increasingly clear that Europe did not have enough supplies to allow normal refilling of storage sites in winter. The continent’s largest supplier, Russia, is limiting pipeline exports for a number of reasons, including high domestic demand, production disruptions and a deal to reduce fuel transit through Ukraine. The LNG market is one that connects Europe, Asia and the Americas, and higher prices there feed into the domestic US market by encouraging more exports of the super-chilled fuel. Natural gas futures in New York have risen as much as 80% this year since 2018, although they are still very low compared to other major global markets. Around the world, the economic consequences of the natural gas rally are becoming clearer. In China, the world’s biggest gas importer, ceramics factories have been forced to reduce production due to high prices in Guangdong and Jiangxi provinces, according to local reports. According to Chief Operating Officer Shakeel Ahmed, the rise in utility bills has “ruined” Mughal Steels’ business in Pakistan. “We consume gas first and get a higher bill later,” he said. “How do I get back to a customer saying I need to add an additional cost to the steel I sold you?” Some poor countries, such as Bangladesh, cannot procure enough energy supplies to keep their economies thriving. In Pakistan, the government has been critical of the purchase of the country’s most precious LNG shipments since it began importing the fuel in 2015.
Black Sea Oil & Gas project a litmus test for Romanian offshore gas investment - Black Sea Oil & Gas (BSOG) is pressing ahead to be the first company to tap Romania’s offshore gas fields despite a disputed tax that has stymied other projects, but if the levy remains it could impact its operations in the country, its chief executive said. The company’s project to extract an estimated 10 billion cubic metres of gas will become a litmus test of the European Union state’s ability to attract investors and tap its estimated 200 billion cubic metres in the Black Sea. Several gas producers have spent years and billions of dollars preparing to tap those reserves, but all except BSOG put a final investment decision on hold three years ago when the previous government imposed an extra tax on offshore projects. “The start of production is not contingent on In February, Beacom said production could start in November, but that deadline could now be delayed slightly as construction works at the project’s onshore treatment plant may not be completed by the year-end, he said. He added BSOG was analysing renewable energy projects using its existing infrastructure, including onshore solar and wind parks and an offshore pilot green hydrogen power plant. The tax is preventing companies such as OMV Petrom, majority-controlled by Austria’s OMV from moving forward with its deepwater project where it discovered 1.5-3 trillion cubic feet of gas, and contributed to Exxon Mobil’s exit from it. Russia’s Lukoil and Romanian state producer Romgaz also had a separate offshore project. Gas producers, the energy regulator and analysts have said Romania needs to press ahead with tapping offshore reserves as its onshore gas fields are dwindling and the country needs to phase out coal in line with EU targets. The centrist government has said offshore legislation would be amended in parliament this year. But its plans might be further delayed as tensions in the ruling coalition escalated and the government is now at risk of collapse. Failure to change legislation would undermine Romania’s credibility, put billions of dollars of revenue at risk and increase the country’s reliance on Russian gas imports. Beacom said he did not believe the legislation will remain in place for long, “given the current natural gas demand, the significant rise of gas imports and prices in Romania, as well as in the EU, and offshore law’s counterproductive nature for Romania that ensures no further investments will be undertaken.”
OODA Loop - Syrian oil spill spreads across the Mediterranean and could reach Cyprus on Wednesday --Last week, a tank filled with 15,000 tons of fuel was discovered to have been leaking since August 23 at a thermal power plant on the Syrian coastal city of Baniyas. Although Syrian officials claimed to have brought the leak under control, the oil spill is growing and spreading across the Mediterranean Sea and could reach the island of Cyprus by Wednesday, according to authorities. Satellite imagery analysis conducted by Orbital EOS indicates that the spill was much larger than originally thought, spreading across 800 square kilometers. This means that the size of the oil leak is roughly the same as the area of New York City. On Tuesday, the oil was just 4 miles from the coast of Cyprus. The Cypriot Department of Fisheries and Marine research conducted their own investigation, determining that the oil would likely reach the shore at around 11 a.m. local time today. Photos have circulated across social media showing the oil slick along the coastal areas of Syria, in the cities of Baniyas and Jableh. Officials have warned that the oil leak could pose a serious threat to marine life.
DOE grants permit-to-construct for AG&P’s LNG facility – Manila Bulletin - The Department of Energy (DOE) disclosed that it already approved the permit-to-construct application of Atlantic Gulf & Pacific Company (AG&P), and the agency is eyeing that this will be the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility that will reach commercial operations by second quarter of 2022. Energy Undersecretary Donato D. Marcos said the LNG import terminal project of AG&P, which is also utilizing floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) technology, has been the second project granted with PCERM or permit to construct, expand, rehabilitate and modify — that serves as the second layer of permitting for LNG projects in the country. The first permit to be secured by LNG project proponents from the DOE is the notice-to-proceed (NTP), which is good for six months; and can be extended for another six months. AG&P’s NTP was issued on February 24, 2021. Under the NTP permitting phase, the LNG facility proponent will have to secure all project approvals it will be needing from various government agencies; and it shall also work on its financial closing as well as off-taker (buyer) of its gas commodity. If all of those requirements are fully complied with, the LNG project proponent will have to go back to the DOE and apply for PCERM – and upon securing the agency’s go-signal, construction of the gas import facility can already commence. According to the energy department, the initial phase of AG&P’s LNG project will be FSRU; but its longer-term project blueprint calls for the establishment of a more permanent onshore LNG terminal. The targeted market of the LNG import facility will be the gas-fired power plant developments of SMC Global Power Holdings Corporation, although it was noted by DOE sources that no definitive power supply contracts had been reported or conveyed yet to the agency. AG&P has its main corporate office base in Manila; but its ownership is of various international firms that include Asiya Investments of Kuwait; Osaka Gas; and Japan Bank for International Cooperation. The company has planned its LNG investment in the country for several years already, but it is finally concretizing that venture into commercial fruition because of the ongoing race among project developers for an asset that will replace the gas output of the Malampaya field. The Philippines currently has over 3,200 megawatts of gas-fired power fleets; and there are also targeted expansions in gas capacities that need to be catered to by LNG that will be imported into the country starting next year.
Saudi Aramco unit wins Guyana oil tender, in line for contract --Guyana awarded a unit of Saudi Aramco 2222.SE a tender to purchase a portion of the country’s oil production, and the two parties will likely enter into a one-year marketing deal, an official said on Tuesday. The South American country last month received bids from 15 companies aiming to market its allocation of light crude produced off the coast by a consortium led by Exxon Mobil Corp XOM.N. Guyana, a nascent oil producer, is entitled to a portion of the oil, but lacks capacity to refine it. While Guyana had initially been seeking a partner to market its oil for one year, the government has for now awarded Aramco Trading Ltd only the next loading, which is scheduled for Sept. 21-22 and will be the government’s fourth of 2021, Natural Resources Minister Vickram Bharrat told Reuters. Aramco will likely be awarded the one-year contract, but that process is not yet complete, Bharrat added. The firm submitted the lowest compliant bid for a comission of $0.025 per barrel. Guyana and neighboring Suriname have emerged as the world’s newest hotspots for offshore oil exploration. The Exxon-led consortium, which also includes China’s CNOOC Ltd 0883.HK and New York-based Hess Corp HES.N, has discovered more than 9 billion barrels of recoverable resources off Guyana’s coast. India, the world’s third largest crude consumer and importer, had sought a long-term supply arrangement with Guyana in part to diversify its suppliers away from OPEC countries, dominated by Saudi Arabia. But Guyana ruled that possibility out last month, deciding instead to go through with a competitive bidding process.
OPEC+ decision to keep increasing oil output feeds expectations for a 2022 surplus A decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies on Wednesday to stick to its plan to gradually increase production each month may lead to a surplus in global supplies as early next year, according to Capital Economics.The decision may also help to pull Brent crude prices down by around 15% by the end of 2022, the economic research consulting firm said.On Wednesday, the oil collective known as OPEC+, including Russia, said it would keep the agreement it made in July, to raise overall production by 400,000 barrels a day each month from August and eventually erase the output curbs put in place last year to offset weaker demand driven by economic restrictions tied to the pandemic.The group had faced a “number of conflicting pressures” ahead of the meeting, including pressure from the Biden administration, which called for a faster return of OPEC+ output than the group currently planned in an effort to lower prices, said Caroline Bain, chief economist at Capital Economics. There were also concerns about a “drop-off” in oil demand, given the rapid spread of the Delta variant in Asia, she said in commentary following the OPEC+ meeting.Oil prices were volatile in the last month, but Brent crude BRNX21, 0.62% BRN00, 0.62% was “comfortably” over $70 a barrel going into Wednesday’s meeting, Bain said, “exactly where it was at the time of the last OPEC+ meeting.” With the group’s policy unchanged, Bain said Capital Economics expects the gradual return of OPEC+ oil supply in the coming year to put “downward pressure on prices.” The market will likely remain in a deficit in the fourth quarter of this year, then swing into a supply surplus early next year, she said.In a report Tuesday, the OPEC+ Joint Technical committee forecast a 900,000 barrel-per-day global oil-supply deficit this year amid a recovery in oil demand, according to Reuters, which cited OPEC+ sources. Reuters said the report initially forecast a surplus of 2.5 million barrels a day in 2022, but that it was later revised to a surplus of 1.6 million barrels a day due to stronger demand. Given expectations for a supply surplus next year, Capital Economics forecasts a fall in Brent crude prices to $60 a barrel by the end of 2022, down from current prices of around $71.
Nigeria Struggles to Meet OPEC’s Crude Oil Quota - Despite requesting for a higher baseline in August, Nigeria failed to meet the existing crude oil supply quota allocated to it by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during the month, THISDAY’s investigation revealed yesterday. The country lost 90,000 barrels per day in August, or roughly 2.8 million barrels in the month, making last month’s production of 1.43 million bpd one of the lowest in five years. While Saudi Arabia and Iraq were the main drivers of OPEC’s production for August, with additional production of 290,000 bpd and 200,000 bpd, respectively, Nigeria, which can produce two million bpd, other things being equal, slumped from its July figure of 1.520 million bpd, according to an OPEC document. Production growth in Nigeria, Africa’s highest oil producer, going by recent data, is proving a major challenge due to infrastructure challenges and technical difficulties, leading to shut-ins.In addition to the above problems, there have also been instances of community or workers’ protests, which incessantly disrupted operations, leading to severe losses. A document obtained by THISDAY showed that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and its partners lost 6.035 million barrels of crude oil to emergency shutdowns in the previous month.In its August presentation to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), which was held between the 18th and 19th of August, the corporation recorded 32 such incidents throughout its facilities in the country. A breakdown of the losses, according to the document, indicated that the highest combined shortage of 1.62 million barrels was from Qua Iboe, with 200,000 barrels due to production shut-in arising from flare management and low wellhead pressure.Additional 530,000 barrels were lost to shut-ins on Qua Iboe following tank top concerns, 650,000 barrels as a result of production cut-back as directed by the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) as well as a loss of 240,000 barrels due to a gas leak on one of the assets. This was followed by losses from the Forcados facility, which shed 200,000 barrels, 84,000 barrels, 30, 000 barrels, and 80,000 barrels respectively on different days, with reasons ranging from leak repairs, tank top issues, a fire incident, and declaration of a force majeure. Forcados continued its shut-ins, shedding an additional 405,000 barrels of crude oil at the Uzere/Afisere/Kokori axis following a shutdown as a result of protests by community workers as well as a loss of 80, 000 barrels due to a fire incident.In the same vein, Anyala Madu shed 105,000 barrels, Bonny suffered total shut-ins of 335,000 barrels, Ugo Ocha lost 30,000, Okono’s shutdown led to the loss of 96,000 barrels, while Sea Eagle lost 750,000 barrels.Usan shed 585,000 barrels, Brass lost 200,000 barrels, Erha lost 230,000 barrels and Yoho lost a cumulative 280,000 barrels during the mon Due to Nigeria’s inability to meet its quota, in addition to the challenges in Angola, OPEC produced about 10 per cent below its overall quota but kept output from its 13 members at about 27.11 million barrels a day in August.But Iran, Venezuela, and Libya continue to be excluded from the OPEC production quota deal, which has led to steady stability in the oil market.
Oil Down on Limited Trading - Oil extended losses after Saudi Arabia cut crude prices for Asian buyers, raising the prospect of fierce competition among sellers as the resurgence of Covid-19 continues to cloud the demand outlook. Futures in New York fell 0.6% to below $69 a barrel. The kingdom cut the price of its flagship crude for October just days after OPEC+ agreed to continue boosting production. Traders were caught off guard by the Saudi move, attributing it to factors including increased competition and a desire to retain market share. “The Saudis cut the price to Asia by more than expected,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “This obviously raises speculation whether they’re looking for market share or whether they see a weak demand situation that requires a lower price in order to stay competitive.” Oil’s sizzling rally over the first half of the year has been interrupted by the delta variant of the virus, which has led to renewed restrictions on mobility. Adding to bearish sentiment recently has been the readiness of governments to release strategic reserves, reducing the need for supplies from the market. Still, a significant chunk of U.S. production remains offline in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Ida. Last month, some Asian customers requested less crude from Saudi Arabia due to the demand impact from delta. For October, Saudi official prices for cargo sales to the U.S., northwest Europe and the Mediterranean were stable or little changed, pointing to the producer’s intent on prioritizing oil flows to Asia. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery dropped 40 cents to $68.89 a barrel by 12:59 p.m. in New York; trading limited due to U.S. Labor Day holiday. Brent for November settled 39 cents lower at $72.22. Traders are closely watching for the return of oil production and refineries affected by Ida. The U.S. gave a second refiner in Louisiana access to the country’s emergency crude stockpiles as most oil-producing platforms in the Gulf of Mexico aren’t back up.
Oil Futures Again Fall After Saudi Cut Asia OSP, US Dollar Gains -- At the beginning of a holiday-shortened week in the United States, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange fell in early trade Tuesday after Saudi Aramco sharply cut official selling prices for crude contracts to Asian and European buyers, reviving concerns over laggard demand growth in major oil consuming countries.State oil giant Saudi Aramco said on Sunday that it will reduce October OSPs for all crude grades sold to Asia, its biggest buying region, by at least $1 a barrel (bbl). Documents detail that the cuts were much deeper than the $0.13 bbl month-on-month decline in the Dubai futures cash/paper spread in August, which is said to be a key element in OSP calculations. Saudi's move on its crude selling price comes on the heels of an agreement among Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led partners announced Sept. 2 that they would continue with a 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) production hike in October. OPEC+ agreed in July to increase their production 400,000 bpd monthly until the 9.7 million bpd in output cuts made in April 2020 are restored, meeting monthly to affirm or adjust the policy should market conditions change.Domestically, Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2021 U.S. gross domestic product growth forecast by 30 basis points to 5.7% in the wake of both the August jobs report and a series of data releases that could suggest slower growth in the months ahead. Last month's employment report showed 235,000 new jobs were added by U.S. employers, a sudden deceleration from an upwardly revised 1.053 million in new jobs in July, suggesting a more muted pace of recovery over the final months of the year as the impact of government stimulus fades and the rate of infections of the Delta coronavirus variant continue to surge.In China, the Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 46.7 in August from 54.9 in July, its sharpest contraction in 16 months, while eurozone retail sales in July also dipped 2.3% month on month.News late last week that the damage from Hurricane Ida to Port Fourchon, which sits at the southeast tip of Louisiana, was less than initially assessed joined a disappointing reading on the domestic labor market to send oil contracts lower. Port Fourchon and the Port of Houma reopened with restrictions, with Port Fourchon in particularly critical for offshore oil producers as it serves as a key transportation artery in delivering oil onshore. Analysts estimate about 90% of Gulf of Mexico oil production goes through the port.
Oil Prices Slide Despite Supply Disruption - Oil prices fell on Tuesday morning as fears grew that Asian demand would not recover as quickly as originally expected. Supply disruptions from Hurricane Ida were not significant enough to counter this bearish news. Saudi Arabia’s drastic cuts to its October 2021 OSPs have sparked fears of a potential slower-than-anticipated demand recovery in Asia as OPEC+ continues to gradually bring part of its idled production back online. Whilst US outages are still hindering crude production in the Gulf of Mexico, the supply constraints appear to be insufficient to stop oil prices from sliding, albeit marginally. As of Tuesday, global benchmark Brent traded below $72 per barrel, whilst WTI was changing hands around $68.5 per barrel.Chinese customs data shows that Chinese buyers have ramped up imports over the last month, bringing in 10.5 mbpd of crude, up 8% month-on-month. With teapot refiners still constrained by unavailable import quotas, state-owned companies did most of the buying. US major Chevron is reportedly trying to sell its oil and gas assets in Texas’ Eagle Ford Basin, a legacy of its taking over Noble Energy last year, foreseeing a selling price as high as $3.8 billion. The forthcoming concession model licensing round of Brazilian oil regulator ANP has seen only 9 companies qualifying for the bidding, the lowest number ever, though the list contains oil majors like ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell \and TotalEnergies. Russian gas giant Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) finished the subsea laying of its $11 billion gas conduit, with only some welding works between the German and Danish sections remaining. Gazprom stocks soared on Monday, adding almost 4% on the day. French oil major TotalEnergies signed a monster deal with Iraq that would see it build several seawater injection facilities at southern oil fields, a $2 billion gas processing plant to curb Iraq’s dependence on Iranian gas imports as well as a solar plant.
Oil slips as slower demand expectations weigh - Oil prices fell on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as Saudi Arabia's sharp cuts in crude contract prices for Asia sparked fears over slower demand, but strong Chinese economic data and U.S. output outages capped losses. Brent crude futures declined 53 cents, or 0.73%, to $71.69 per barrel, after falling 39 cents on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 94 cents, or 1.36%, lower at $68.35 per barrel, with no settlement price for Monday due to the Labor Day holiday in the United States. "The deep cut in Saudi OSP and the aftershock of Friday's disappointing U.S. jobs data that strengthened the dollar yesterday were enough to put bulls on the backfoot," Tamas Varga of oil brokerage PVM said. Saudi Aramco on Sunday cut October official selling prices (OSPs) for all its crude grades sold to Asia by at least $1 a barrel. The deep price cuts, a sign that consumption in the world's top-importing region remains tepid, come as lockdowns across Asia to combat the Delta variant of the coronavirus have clouded the economic outlook. At the same time, the U.S. economy created the fewest jobs in seven months in August as hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector stalled amid a resurgence in COVID-19 infections, which weighed on demand at restaurants and hotels. Oil prices, however, were underpinned by strong Chinese economic indicators and continued outages of U.S. supply from Hurricane Ida. China's crude oil imports rose 8% in August from a month earlier, customs data showed, as refiners resumed purchases following the issue of new import quotas. China's economy got a boost as exports unexpectedly grew at a faster pace in August thanks to solid global demand, helping take some of the pressure off the world's second-biggest economy as it navigates its way through headwinds from several fronts. More than 80% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remained shut after Ida, a U.S. regulator said on Monday, more than a week after the storm made landfall and hit critical infrastructure in the region. Hedge funds purchased petroleum last week at the second-fastest rate this year after Ida disrupted offshore oil wells and onshore refineries in the Gulf.
Oil Drops as Stronger Dollar Overshadows Bullish Data | Rigzone - Oil closed lower for a second session as the dollar rose, offsetting bullish Chinese trade data and continued production outages in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Futures in New York fell 1.4% with a stronger dollar making commodities priced in the currency less attractive. Meanwhile, the industry was still assessing the impact on oil assets from Hurricane Ida. Nearly 80% of crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remains offline. “WTI is basically getting thumbed down by the rising U.S. dollar,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Fears of slower-than-expected economic growth due to the delta-variant of the coronavirus and the impending Federal Reserve’s asset tapering later in 2021 may be prompting a pull back in risk appetite, he added. he fast-spreading delta variant has raised demand concerns in recent weeks, though China was able to swiftly contain its latest outbreak. The Asian country’s overall imports also rose, with crude purchases climbing to a five-month high, pointing to a revival in the region’s biggest economy following a recent wave of Covid-19 infections. There are expectations that the global oil market will tighten over the rest of 2021, with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies deciding last week to keep boosting supply on a bet that the recovery will accelerate. Prices: West Texas Intermediate for October delivery lost 94 cents from Friday’s close to settle at $68.35 a barrel in New York. Brent for November settlement slipped 53 cents to end the session at $71.69 a barrel. Post-Ida recovery efforts are still continuing with the storm’s initial impact to oil greater than any other storm in history. Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it’s returning staff to its Auger and Enchilada/Salsa oil and natural gas platforms in the Gulf though those assets and others remain shut. Prices for regional sour crude benchmark Mars Blend surged to a seven-month high due to supply uncertainty. Among Louisiana refiners, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Marathon Petroleum Corp. said parts of their respective crude processing plants were back in service.
Oil holds steady on slow return of U.S. supplies after Hurricane Ida (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday following overnight losses from a stronger dollar and demand concerns, with a slow production restart in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico providing some support. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures rose 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $68.46 a barrel at 0429 GMT, after sliding 1.4% on Tuesday following the Labor Day holiday. Brent crude LCOc1 futures fell 2 cents to $71.67 a barrel after falling 0.7% on Tuesday. "The market is ... weighing up the impact of ongoing delays to the resumption of operations in the Gulf of Mexico," ANZ Research analysts said in a note. Producers in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico are still struggling to restart operations nine days after Hurricane Ida swept through the region with powerful winds and drenching rain. About 79% of U.S. Gulf production remained offline on Tuesday, with 79 production platforms still unoccupied. About 17.5 million barrels of oil has been lost to the market so far. The Gulf's offshore wells make up about 17% of U.S. output. "Refinery operations appear to be making a quicker recovery," ING analysts said in a note. Only about 1 million barrels per day of capacity was temporarily closed, down from a peak of more than 2 million bpd, ING said, citing the latest situation report from the Department of Energy. "However, those refiners that have restarted are unlikely to be operating at full capacity at the moment," the note added. Traders will be closely watching inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group due on Wednesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday for a clearer picture of the storm's impact on crude production and refinery output. API/SEIA/S Analysts polled by Reuters expect, on average, that crude stocks fell by 3.8 million barrels in the week to Sept. 3, and see gasoline stocks down by 3.6 million barrels and distillates down by 3 million barrels.
WTI, Brent Futures Rally on Gulf of Mexico Outages, Protests in Libya -- Nearby delivery month oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Wednesday's session higher, with both the U.S. and international crude benchmarks rallying as much as 1.5%. The gains followed reports of widespread protests at oil ports in Libya, with demonstrators blocking loadings from the two key terminals of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, while the slower-than-expected return of deep-water oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico fueled additional buying interest. The Bureau of Safety and Environment Enforcement reported Wednesday afternoon operators in the federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico brought back less than 2% of shut-in production on Wednesday, with some 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in regional oil output remaining offline following Hurricane Ida's landfall on Aug. 29. A combination of factors has likely contributed to the slow progress in restoring GOM production, including potential damage to underwater pipelines and widespread power outages at refineries and oil terminals across southeastern Louisiana that could preclude the facilities from receiving oil.Shell, the largest producer in the Gulf, said on Wednesday that 80% of its production remains offline and return is contingent on "availability of downstream infrastructure." "Our remaining Shell Deep Water assets -- Appomattox, Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Auger and Enchilada/Salsa -- remain shut in. Our inspections on board confirm that there is no significant structural damage to these Shell Deep Water assets impacted by the storm. Our crews will focus on making necessary repairs in a safe, sustainable manner," said the company.Many offshore operators have been able to return some personnel to platforms, with 73 remaining evacuated, about 13% of all platforms in the Gulf, according to the BSEE data. S&P Global Platts Analytics estimates Ida has already kept about 20 million barrels (bbl) of oil off the market, which makes it the costliest hurricane in the GOM since hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. Should recovery from Ida extend into next week, the disruption could knock off as much as 30 million bbl. In its latest Short-term Energy Outlook, U.S. Energy Information Administration said it doesn't expect a speedy return of GOM output, with production to average 1.2 million bpd in September before jumping back to 1.7 million bpd in the fourth quarter. U.S. Department of Energy said on Wednesday that five refineries in Louisiana with roughly 1 million bpd of oil refining capacity, or about 6% of nationwide capacity, remained shut, with all three refineries in the Baton Rouge area and one near New Orleans having initiated the restart process. Internationally, Libya's two key oil ports -- Es Sider and Ras Lanuf -- were closed Wednesday due to escalating demonstrations that blocked a crude tanker from loading its cargo. It's unclear what sparked the protests, but media reports indicate demonstrators are calling for the dismissal of Mustafa Sanalla, chairman of state-owned National Oil Company.
Oil Futures Gain on Bullish API Data, Libya Port Closures -- Following Wednesday's advance triggered by a potential supply disruption in Libya and the slow return of deep-water production in U.S. Gulf of Mexico, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced in pre-inventory trade Thursday after industry data from the American Petroleum Institute reported across-the-board draws from U.S. commercial crude and refined product supplies in the week ended Sept. 3. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, NYMEX October West Texas Intermediate contract gained $0.44 to $69.74 per barrel (bbl), and Brent crude for November delivery jumped above $73 bbl, advancing $0.52 in early trade. NYMEX October RBOB futures added 1.8 cents to $2.1491 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures gained 0.75 cents to $2.1439 gallon. Operators in the offshore U.S. Gulf of Mexico managed to restore about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) out of a total 1.8 million in daily production that was shut-in by the Hurricane Ida on Aug. 29. Ida has already kept about 20 million bbl of oil off the market, according to analysts, and should the disruption continue into next week that could well exceed 30 million bbl. A combination of factors has likely contributed to the slow progress in restoring GOM production, including potential damage to underwater pipelines and widespread power outages at refineries and oil terminals across southeastern Louisiana that could preclude the facilities from receiving oil. Entergy -- the regional power supplier, said on Wednesday 62% of customers that lost power following the hurricane's landfall are now receiving power, with some parts of the transmission system requiring a total "rebuild." Many offshore operators have been able to return some personnel to platforms, with 73 remaining evacuated, about 13% of all platforms in the Gulf, according to the BSEE data. The unprecedented supply disruption veered its head in weekly inventory data released by the American Petroleum Institute late Wednesday, showing domestic gasoline inventories decreased by a massive 6.414 million bbl in the week ended Sept. 3 compared with calls for a drop of 2.9 million bbl. API data also showed distillate inventories dropped 3.748 million bbl, above estimates for a 2.3 million bbl draw. Commercial crude oil inventories declined by 2.882 million bbl in the profiled week versus an anticipated 2.5 million bbl draw. Data show stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub increased 1.794 million bbl. Analysts estimate that large product draws last week are constructive in light of the 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in refining capacity initially knocked offline in Louisiana by Ida. On Wednesday, U.S. Department of Energy said that five refineries in Louisiana with roughly 1 million bpd of oil refining capacity remained shut, with all three refineries in the Baton Rouge area and one near New Orleans having initiated the restart process.
Oil Price Chaos Continues After Record Crude Production Plunge, Major Gasoline Draw - Oil prices have swung wildly this morning ahead of the official inventory data following reports that China will release some of its strategic crude reserves.In a late announcement on Thursday, Beijing said it had tapped its giant oil reserves to "to ease the pressure of rising raw material prices." The Chinese government didn't offer further details, but people familiar with the matter said the statement referred to millions of barrels the government offered in mid-July.“On its face, it’s a pretty clear statement of an intent to use the SPR to dampen oil prices for domestic refiners,” said Bob McNally, a former senior White House policy adviser who now runs Rapidan Energy Group, a consulting firm in Washington.For now, the algos will be focused on the inventory data for signs of Delta's impact... but perhaps it is Ida's impact that will confound most. Hurricane Ida may not have been the deadliest or most damaging weather system ever to smash into the U.S., but its initial impact on Gulf of Mexico oil supply has been greater than any other storm in history. Ida has been responsible for the loss of 20.7 million barrels of output in the 13 days since the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement issued its first assessment of production shut-ins as a result of the storm. That’s 40% more crude than was lost to Katrina over the same period in 2005.API
- Crude -2.882mm (-3.8mm exp)
- Cushing +1.794mm
- Gasoline +6.414mm (-3.6mm exp)
- Distillates -3.748mm (-3.0mm exp)
DOE
- Crude -1.528 (-3.8mm exp)
- Cushing +1.918mm
- Gasoline -7.215mm (-3.6mm exp)
- Distillates -3.141mm (-3.0mm exp)
API reported a smaller than expected crude draw and wholly unexpected gasoline build last week but the official data showed an even smaller crude draw but a huge gasoline draw Rig counts dropped last week, likely impacted by Ida's imminent arrival but production crashed by a record 1.5mm barrels/day... Currently only 20% of the offshore platforms are still evacuated, but 77% of oil production remains shut-in. One of the drivers behind the slow return of oil and gas has been Louisiana’s Port Fourchon -- a key hub for oil and gas platforms handling more than 18% of its entire oil supply. As of Sept. 7, work to restore operations at the port is still ongoing. A chaotic morning in crude saw WTI plunge to a $67 handle only to rip back up near a $70 handle ahead of the official DOE data, and dipped a little after...
Key Reasons for Oil's Lower Settlement Despite Supply Drop --U.S. oil prices fell on Thursday, as investors looked past the Energy Information Administration’s ("EIA") storm-induced draws in crude and fuel stockpiles, instead turning their attention to China’s surprise announcement to auction off oil from its national reserve to soften spiraling feedstock costs for domestic refiners.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures lost $1.16 or 1.7%, to settle at $68.14 a barrel. Below we review the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending Sep 3. The federal government’s EIA report revealed that crude inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels compared to the expectations of a 7.4-million-barrel decline per the analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts. The combination of a drop in domestic production and lower imports — both related to the Hurricane Ida-led shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico facilities — accounted for the stockpile draw with the world’s biggest oil consumer. However, the magnitude of decrease was far lower than expected as the storm knocked out refinery demand too. This puts total domestic stocks at 423.9 million barrels — 15.3% less than the year-ago figure and 6% lower than the five-year average. On a somewhat bearish note, the report showed that supplies at the Cushing terminal (the key delivery hub for U.S. crude futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange) were up 1.9 million barrels to 36.4 million barrels.Meanwhile, the crude supply cover was up from 26.5 days in the previous week to 27.2 days. In the year-ago period, the supply cover was 35.8 days. Gasoline supplies decreased for the sixth time in eight weeks. The 7.2-million-barrel plunge is attributable to the hurricane fallout on the Gulf Coast’s widespread refinery network. Analysts had forecast that gasoline inventories would fall by 2.4 million barrels. At 220 million barrels, the current stock of the most widely used petroleum product is 5.1% less than the year-earlier level and 4% below the five-year average range. Distillate fuel supplies (including diesel and heating oil) fell for the second week in a row. The 3.1-million-barrel drop reflected refineries sidelined by Hurricane Ida. Meanwhile, the market looked for a supply decline of 2 million barrels. Current inventories — at 133.6 million barrels — are 24% below the year-ago level and 12% lower than the five-year average. Refinery utilization, at 81.9%, was down 9.4% from the prior week. Oil prices settled lower yesterday after China’s plans to release stockpiles from reserves stoked fears of a supply glut even as global oil consumption remain strong following the relaxation of movement curbs. Besides, analysts cited this week’s hefty inventory declines as temporary as most production platforms in the Gulf were evacuated in anticipation of Hurricane Ida.
Oil rallies towards $73 on tight U.S. supplies, Biden-Xi call - Oil rose on Friday, supported by growing signs of supply tightness in the United States as a result of Hurricane Ida and as U.S.-China trade hopes gave riskier assets a boost. About three-quarters of the U.S. Gulf's offshore oil production, or about 1.4 million barrels per day, has remained halted since late August. Figures this week showed U.S. crude inventories fell to the lowest since September 2019. "With the restart in offshore crude production lagging, the odds are that the Ida effect will still be felt in the coming weeks," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. Brent crude rose $1.47, or 2%, to $72.92. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 2.32%, or $1.58, higher at $69.72 per barrel. Oil and equity markets also got a boost from news of a call between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The call raised hopes for warmer relations and more global trade, analysts said. Brent was on track to end the week with a small gain and has rallied almost 40% this year, driven by supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some demand recovery from the pandemic. On Thursday, both crude contracts had fallen more than 1% after China said it would release crude oil reserves via public auction to help ease high feedstock costs for refiners, a move described as a first.
NYMEX WTI Nears $70 on Tightening US Supplies - -- Nearby delivery oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange finished the holiday-shortened trading week higher, with the U.S. crude benchmark gaining as much 2.3% on Friday, supported by longer-than-expected production outages in the offshore U.S. Gulf of Mexico, with over 66% of regional output remaining offline 12 days after Hurricane Ida's Aug. 29 landfall, and outsized drawdowns from domestic petroleum inventories last week. On the session, NYMEX October West Texas Intermediate contract advanced $1.58 to $69.72 barrel (bbl), while posting a modest gain since last Friday's settlement. Brent crude for November delivery moved up $1.47 to finish the week 8 cents below $73 bbl. NYMEX October RBOB futures rallied 5.43 cents or 2% to $2.1540 gallon and front-month ULSD futures advanced 3.23 cents for a $2.1460 gallon settlement. Friday's advance came despite the U.S. dollar reversing higher in afternoon trading after several Federal Reserve officials indicated the world's most powerful central bank is prepared to reduce the pace of bond buying programs as early as November. President of Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Loreta J. Mester said Friday the U.S. labor participation rate may never return to its pre-pandemic level despite the remarkable progress the job market has made in the past 18 months. Currently, over 8 million Americans remain unemployed despite U.S. employers having a record-high 10.9 million job openings this summer. This mismatch was echoed in earlier comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who said there is plenty of demand for workers and "if we can get the workers matched up and bring the pandemic under better control, it certainly looks like we'll have a very strong labor market going into next year." The U.S. dollar strengthened 0.14% against the basket of foreign currencies to settle the volatile week of trading at 92.590. The U.S. Federal Reserve came under increasing pressure in recent weeks from central banks in industrialized and emerging economies that withdrew fiscal stimulus amid surging inflation. The European Central Bank announced on Thursday that it would slow the pace of the bond purchases under its 1.85 trillion-euro Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, making the first step in withdrawing 80 billion euros a month it bought over the previous two quarters. Last month, The Bank of Korea announced a first interest rate hike in three years, indicating rising inflation poses a greater risk to the economy than the latest virus outbreak. In the short-term, however, market participants continue to monitor the slow return of offshore oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, with about 66% or 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) still offline nearly two weeks after Hurricane Ida's landfall, according to government data from the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. There have been signs of progress, with a majority of workers returning to offshore platforms and power supply restored for much critical onshore and deepwater infrastructure. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port said Thursday it has resumed delivering crude oil to regional refineries.
Oil Up for Third Week as USA Refinery Restarts Outpace Production - Rigzone - Oil gained a third week as investors focused on the ongoing production shut-ins in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico as more refineries have resumed operations nearly two weeks after Hurricane Ida tore through the region. Futures in New York posted its longest set of weekly gains since July after ending Friday 2.3% higher. More than a million barrels a day of U.S. offshore crude production remains shut in after Ida swept through the area nearly two weeks ago. Meanwhile, more Louisiana refineries are resuming operations, raising demand for crude oil. The slow return of offshore production led to Exxon Mobil Corp. to secure approval for a second load of crude from the Department of Energy’s Strategic Reserves for use at Baton Rouge plant. “The market is now laser focused on the supply situation in the U.S.,” said Andrew Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group. “The losses from the extended outage in the Gulf are being felt more.” Even after China made an unprecedented move to intervene in oil markets this week, crude in New York has traded in a $4 band since late August. The market has been pulled in different directions with the majority of Gulf of Mexico production still shut from Hurricane Ida and falling American stockpiles acting as bullish triggers, countered by the ever-present pandemic. Marathon Petroleum’s 578,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Garyville, Louisiana, is back in operation for the first time since before Ida slammed into the coast. Exxon Mobil Corp. secured another 1.5 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for its Baton Rouge refinery, which was operating normally as of Thursday. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery climbed $1.58 to settle at $69.72 a barrel in New York. Brent for November settlement rose $1.54 to $72.99 a barrel. China’s bold but vague declaration to release oil reserves from its massive strategic stockpiles has some traders questioning the lasting impact of such a move by the world’s biggest crude importer. The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration also said this week that a “normalized” rotation of crude oil in the state stockpiles is “an important way for the reserves to play its role in balancing the market,” indicating that it may continue to release barrels. It added that putting reserves on the market through open auctions “will better stabilize domestic market supply and demand.” “China’s SPR is very healthy because they bought so much last year when prices were significantly lower,” said Lebow. “They may wait to replenish it.
US backs plan to bring badly-needed gas to Lebanon from Syria | Cyprus Mail -- The US has backed a plan to bring desperately needed gas to Lebanon from Syria.Syria said on Saturday that it welcomed Lebanon’s request to import Egyptian gas for energy generation via its territory after Lebanese ministers made the highest level visit to Damascus in years.The United States has said it is in talks with Egypt, Jordan and the World Bank to help find solutions to Lebanon’s energy crisis. The Lebanese presidency said last month Washington had decided to help through this plan.Lebanon is suffering energy shortages that have forced even essential services including hospitals to shut down or scale back operations. The crisis is the result of a wider financial meltdown that has devastated the economy since 2019.The delegation, led by Zeina Akkar, who holds several positions in Lebanon’s caretaker government including the foreign minister, aimed to pave the way for a U.S.-backed plan to ease the power shortages in Lebanon by transmitting electricity via the Syrian grid.“The Syrian side welcomed the request and assured it was ready to oblige it,” Nasri Khoury, secretary general of the Lebanese Syrian Higher Council, said in a brief statement after the meeting.The plan involves using Egyptian gas to generate electricity in Jordan that will then be transmitted via Syria to Lebanon.US sanctions on Damascus are a complicating factor in any effort to help Lebanon via Syria, but congressmen visiting Beirut this week have said Washington is looking at ways to urgently deal with those hurdles.US ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea has also said there was a will to make the plan happen.Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad received the Lebanese delegation at the border on arrival Saturday, which also included the ministers of energy and finance. Lebanese government officials had mostly avoided Syria since war began there in 2011 as Beirut adopted a policy of staying out of regional conflicts, even as the Shi’ite group Hezbollah fought in support of Damascus.
Jordan to host meeting for Lebanon gas supplies - Jordan will host a meeting with some of its neighbours on 8 September to find a way to alleviate Lebanon's ongoing electricity shortages by supplying the country with Egyptian gas, state-run Petra news agency reported today. Jordanian energy and mineral resources minister Hala Zawati has invited her Syrian, Lebanese and Egyptian counterparts to Amman to discuss ways to deliver Egyptian gas to Lebanon via Jordan and Syria. It would follow a meeting between Lebanese and Syrian delegations in Damascus yesterday in which Syria said it "welcomed" a request by the Lebanese to import gas from Egypt and electricity from Jordan through its territory. The discussions likely revolve around the 10bn m³/yr Arab Gas Pipeline (AGP), which transports gas from Egypt to Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. Lebanon had previously taken gas from Egypt via the pipeline in 2009 and 2010, but supplies ended soon after as Egypt's gas production dwindled. And although Egypt restarted exporting gas through the pipeline in 2018, these volumes have overwhelmingly been going to Jordan. According to the World Bank, Egypt has previously indicated its willingness to supply gas to Lebanon. But, among other things, this would have to address the geopolitical complexities of the Syrian civil war. Transit through Syria could be difficult, and with Damascus under US oil sectoral sanctions, that could complicate relations for all involved. Lebanon has been experiencing an acute power shortage that has resulted in severe rolling blackouts. Last week it awarded its first ever tender to swap 84,000t (542,000 bl) of Iraqi fuel oil with 30,000t of a specific fuel oil grade and 33,000t (246,000 bl) of gasoil to Dubai's state-owned Enoc. This tender is part of a deal that allows Lebanon's government to buy and resell 1mn t of heavy fuel oil from Iraq through monthly spot tenders — in cargoes of 75,000-85,000t — for one year on behalf of Lebanon's main power provider Electricite du Liban (EDL). The deal, which was signed in late-July, should cover around one third of EDL's fuel needs, and therefore tie the country over for around four months.
Saudi Arabia foils missile attack on its oil facilities Saudi Arabia said early today that it intercepted a ballistic missile and several armed drones fired by Yemen's Houthi rebels at the country's oil-rich eastern province. One of the missiles intercepted over the eastern city of Dammam overnight scattered shrapnel that injured two children and caused minor damage to 14 houses, according to the Saudi defence ministry. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group, which has been fighting a Saudi-led coalition in Yemen since 2015, said it had fired the missiles, targeting state-controlled Saudi Aramco facilities in Ras Tanura, close to Dammam, as well as in Jizan and Najran provinces. The Houthi movement said its attack on Ras Tanura, which is home to Aramco's largest oil export loading facilities and a 550 b/d crude and condensate refinery, involved firing eight armed drones and a missile. Both the Saudi defence ministry and Aramco made no mention of any damage to oil facilities as a result of the attack. A missile attack in 2019 on Aramco's largest 7mn b/d crude oil processing Abqaiq plant in eastern Saudi Arabia and on the 1.2mn b/d Khurais field forced the temporary shut-in of over 5.5mn b/d of crude output. Although the Houthis claimed responsibility for that attack, it is widely accepted that those missiles were fired from a location north-west of Saudi Arabia, rather than from Yemen to the south of the country. The Houthi group has stepped up its drone attacks on Saudi Arabia recently, with the Saudis announcing interceptions on an almost daily basis. Saudi Arabia and its allies, chiefly the UAE, intervened in Yemen in 2015 following the Houthi movement's 2014 ouster of the country's Saudi-backed president Mansour Abd Rabbo Hadi. The UAE has largely withdrawn from the conflict, pursuing its own agenda in southern Yemen through proxy forces. Saudi Arabia's role is confined to an air campaign and to enforcing a blockade under the UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism for Yemen, which was established in 2016 at the request of Hadi's internationally recognised Yemeni government. It covers vessels sailing to ports not under its control, such as Hodeidah and Saleef, with the aim of preventing arms reaching the Houthis. The Hadi government must approve all vessels for entry to the ports. Civilian casualties have been high, and the blockade has contributed to widespread hunger and malnutrition in Yemen.
Afghan women and girls were forced into marriages in order to escape the country as it fell to the Taliban, report says -- Some Afghan families forced women and girls into marriages at Kabul's airport to secure them safe passage out of the country after the Taliban takeover last month, according to a report from CNN. Two sources familiar with the matter told CNN that US officials processing Afghan refugees in the United Arab Emirates wrote a diplomatic cable on the issue recently. The cable said that there were some instances of women and girls who were forced into marriage with men who were on the list of evacuees, or arrived in the UAE with men posing as their husbands to get out of Afghanistan, according to CNN. CNN reported that families paid eligible men thousands of dollars to marry or pose as husbands for women to flee. The report said it was unclear how widespread of an issue this was. Women suffered under the last Taliban regime in the 1990s, where they weren't allowed to go to school or hold jobs. The Taliban has hinted that they may be more open to women's education and roles in society now that they are back in power, but many Afghan women remain skeptical and have sought to escape the country.
Women stage protest in Taliban-controlled Kabul - A group of Afghan women activists staged a small protest in Taliban-controlled Kabul Friday calling for equal rights and full participation in political life, CNN has confirmed. In spite of the risk, a group called the Women's Political Participation Network marched on the street in front of Afghanistan's Finance Ministry, chanting slogans and holding signs demanding involvement in the Afghan government and calling for constitutional law. Footage showed a brief confrontation between a Taliban guard and some of the women, and a man's voice could be heard saying, "Go away!" before chanting resumed. The gathering was relatively small -- video of the scene livestreamed by the group showed just a few dozen demonstrators -- but represented an unusual public challenge to Taliban rule. The militant group are involved in internal discussions about forming a government, but have already signaled that working women should stay at home, and militants have in some instances ordered women to leave their workplaces. Taliban leaders insist publicly that women will play a prominent role in society and have access to education. But the group's public statements about adhering to their interpretation of Islamic values have stoked fears that there will be a return to the harsh policies of Taliban rule two decades ago, when women all but disappeared from public life.
China’s Industrial Planning Evolves, Stirring U.S. Concerns – WSJ - For decades, China pursued a brand of centrally planned economic policies that the U.S. was happy to stand back and watch. But a subtle yet critical recalibration by Beijing begun almost 15 years ago has recently set off alarms in Washington about China’s goals and tactics—not least because China is catching up in many cases by adopting past U.S. approaches. Chinese central planning once highlighted targets for farm and factory production, Soviet-style. Beijing still uses five-year plans but now directs resources into basic scientific research with industrial applications. China’s foray into areas like artificial intelligence and robotics once dominated by the U.S. helps explain the Biden administration’s tilt toward industrial development policies, like spending government money to reassert competitiveness in semiconductor production. “Decades of neglect and disinvestment,” President Biden lamented in June, “have left us at a competitive disadvantage as countries across the globe, like China, have poured money and focus into new technologies and industries, leaving us at real risk of being left behind.” Beijing also emulates Washington by pouring government investment into its own versions of U.S. government research powerhouses such as the National Institutes of Health, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. “China aspires to be the first ‘government-steered market economy,’” After taking power in 2012, President Xi Jinping promoted a worldview of industrial and technological dominance as a political and security imperative. Couched in terminology suggesting self-sufficiency goals, Chinese planning took aim at globalized sectors like car making by putting government money and regulation behind new concepts, like electrification. More recently, China has displayed expertise in more future-leaning areas such as quantum computing, challenging pacesetting Western nations. Mr. Naughton’s research finds that just one source of money for government priorities, “industrial guidance funds,” could have collected as much as $1.6 trillion in funding through mid-2020, mostly in the previous six years.Today, 38% of multinationals say their China operations are being negatively affected by Beijing’s industrial policies, according to a membership survey by the U.S.-China Business Council published in August, more than three times the proportion two years earlier.
Sri Lanka raids private warehouses after declaring a state of emergency due to food shortages(video) Sri Lankan government raided private warehouses outside capital Colombo to seize thousands of tonnes of sugar last week. The raids came a day after the country declaring a state of emergency due to food shortages. Major General Senarath Niwunhella, who was named commissioner-general of essential services told AFP at least 13 000 tonnes of white and brown sugar were found in the raids.1 "Today we started with sugar and will expand this action to other commodities like wheat flour and rice too if importers do not release their stocks to the market," he said. Niwunhella said the objective of the raids is to prevent hoarding, adding that seized stocks will be given to state-owned retail stores to sell for below the open market price. AFP reported the country is experiencing sharp price rises for rice, onions, and potatoes, while long queues have formed outside stores because of shortages of milk powder, kerosene oil, and cooking gas. Experts blame the food crisis on a shortage of foreign exchange to import and maintain buffer stocks. The country’s foreign reserves plummeted to $2.8 billion by the end of July from $7.5 billion in November 2019.2 The Sri Lankan rupee has lost almost 20% against the US dollar since the economy contracted by a record 3.6% in 2020 due to COVID-19 measures.
Some Indian states move to curb crowds at religious festivals. -- After a giant Hindu pilgrimage contributed to a catastrophic coronavirus surge this spring, some states in India are preparing for a new season of religious festivals by imposing crowd limits, as experts warn of the threat of a third wave of infections.Several festivals taking place in September and October typically draw large crowds to temples, processions and markets. In the past, the authorities have struggled to get devotees to follow health protocols. The Kumbh Mela, which drew millions of pilgrims to the banks of the Ganges River in the spring with hardly any testing or social distancing, was widely blamed for spreading the virus, as pilgrims carried infections back to their villages and towns.Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government faced criticism for allowing the Kumbh Mela to take place despite warnings that it would become a super-spreading event. Last month, Mr. Modi’s government asked states to take “suitable measures to avoid large gatherings during the coming festive season,” and to impose local restrictions if needed.At a news conference last week, Dr. V.K. Paul, head of the national Covid-19 task force, reinforced the warning, saying: “We shall celebrate the festivals within the family — we should not have big gatherings.”States have responded with varying measures in the days before a festival celebrating Ganesh, the Hindu elephant god. In the southwestern state of Karnataka, the government said that gatherings should be capped at 20 people, and imposed a 9 p.m. curfew. In the southern state of Tamil Nadu, officials announced a ban on large celebrations, and offered payments to idol-making potters whose businesses would be badly affected.The western state of Maharashtra, among the worst hit by the spring Covid wave, draws some of the biggest crowds for the festival, known as Ganesh Chaturthi. In Mumbai, the state capital, the authorities issued guidelines limiting processions to 10 people, all of whom must be fully vaccinated and masked, news media reported.Although India’s outbreak has eased, the country continues to report nearly 40,000 new cases and nearly 400 deaths daily. With Covid fatigue kicking in and the economy still flailing, many states are reluctant to impose strict restrictions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has bet that a ramped-up vaccination drive can boost immunity and keep another wave from being as deadly as the last.
New Zealand eases Covid restrictions outside its largest city. - New Zealand announced on Monday that it will ease Covid-19 restrictions outside its largest city, Auckland, ending a series of lockdowns that began in August.Residents outside Auckland will be allowed to return to work and school, and the nationwide alert level will be lowered to Level 2 starting Wednesday morning, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said at a news conference. Auckland, a city of almost 1.7 million, will remain at Level 4, which means that everyone but essential workers must remain at home. Schools will reopen on Thursday morning, she said.New Zealand is one of the last countries pursuing a so-called Covid zero strategy, enforcing severe restrictions on movement and activities until there are no new cases.Other governments that have employed this strategy, including Hong Kong and Singapore, have recently said that they may start loosening those measures, as fatigue among citizens grows and because of the threat to economic growth.Because of the severity of restrictions put in place in August, the average number of daily new cases remains relatively low, at 36. The nation’s vaccination campaign has gotten off to a sluggish start, with only 49 percent of the population having received at least one dose, below the 62 percent in the United States and 72 percent in Britain.
Qantas becomes one of the first airlines to require that international passengers be vaccinated. - Qantas, Australia’s largest airline, will require that all passengers on international flights are vaccinated against the coronavirus when it restarts worldwide operations in December, its chief executive said Wednesday, making it one of the first airlines in the world to require proof of vaccination for everyone on board.Alan Joyce, the chief executive of the airline’s parent company, Qantas Group, made the announcement in an interview with theTrans-Tasman Business Circle, a network for business leaders in Australia and New Zealand.“Qantas will have a policy that internationally we’ll only be carrying vaccinated passengers because we think that’s going to be one of the requirements to show that you’re flying safe,” he said, adding that many countries are requiring arriving travelers to be vaccinated anyway. He said he hoped the policy would be in place “by Christmas.”Qantas, which is headquartered in Sydney, suspended international operations during the pandemic — but did resume flights to New Zealand in April this year before suspending them again on July 31. The airline plans to restart flights abroad in December. Mr. Joyce said in November of last year that he was considering banning unvaccinated travelers on international flights, but did not offer a timeline. Other airlines have announced that they will require flight attendants and pilots to be vaccinated, but few other airlines have committed to banning unvaccinated passengers. Air Canada seems to be the only other airline that is poised to soon begin turning away unvaccinated passengers. By the end of October, the Canadian government will require all commercial airline employees and passengers to be vaccinated. Air Canada endorsedthe government’s position in August.
Health officials enter the field to stop a soccer match between Brazil and Argentina. - A World Cup qualification game between Brazil and Argentina, South America’s most successful soccer teams, was halted after only a few minutes on Sunday after Brazilian health authorities walked onto the field in an apparent dispute about coronavirus quarantine regulations.In chaotic scenes in São Paulo, Brazilian public health officials entered the field minutes into the highly anticipated showdown and ordered Argentina’s players off the field. Officials from both sides, a small crowd allowed inside the stadium and a global television audience struggled to comprehend what was taking place. At issue was the status of four members of Argentina’s roster, including three starters who play club soccer in England’s Premier League. According to local regulations, foreign travelers who had spent time in Britain in the previous 14 days are required to quarantine upon arrival in Brazil. Argentina arrived with four England-based players and started three on Sunday. All of the players had first traveled to Venezuela, where Argentina played a qualification game last week, before arriving in Brazil three days ago.
Delta Surge Means This Is as Good as Global Growth Gets - The pandemic’s summer resurgence is slowing the global economic recovery as the delta variant dogs efforts to rev up factories, offices and schools.Instead of entering the final months of 2021 confident that the acute phase of the pandemic is over, it’s becoming clear that booster shots may be needed for fading vaccines, workplace re-openings will be delayed and border closures remain. Data over the past week captured a worldwideweakening as infections hit travel and spending and worsen supply bottlenecks that are dampening manufacturing and trade. Surging gas prices are also emerging as a threat. In the U.S., hiring sharply slowed to its smallest increase in seven months in August and airport check ins, hotel bookings and dining reservations all show softer demand. Germany’s key business sentiment gauge deteriorated and China’s services sector crumbled in August. A global measure of manufacturing slumped.Activity gauges have missed expectations in major economies, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., while Citigroup Inc. warned the recovery could moderate with a deepening divergence between sectors and regions.“The spread of the delta variant is slowing the reopening process and has caused us to mark down growth globally,” said Robin Brooks, chief economist of the Institute of International Finance in Washington, referring to its revised 5.7% forecast for this year, from 6.2%. That stumble could complicate central banks’ plans to pull away from their crisis support by slowing asset purchases or raising interest rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Aug. 28 warned of ongoing slack in the labor market as the pandemic continues, while Australia’s central bank this week is expected to revisit whether to delay its taper plansamid a worsening outbreak.
EU bank watchdogs warn on industry plans to soften regulations - European bank regulators issued a joint warning against watering down tough new capital requirements, after the industry seized on the pandemic to lobby for less onerous rules. Twenty-five central banks and watchdogs from across the region sent a letter to the European Commission on Tuesday calling for a “full, timely and consistent implementation” of global standards known as Basel III. The package is about to enter a decisive phase in Europe with the commission’s proposal for how to translate it into law due before the end of the year.
After a Long, Hard Summer, Southern Europe’s Long Awaited Tourism Recovery Remains Largely Elusive - Global travel is still far from returning to anything like the conditions that existed prior to the pandemic — at least for non-essential travellers. The EU’s covid-19 passport “has been of little benefit” for Spain’s tourism industry, according toCarlos Abella, secretary general of the country’s Tourism Board. “The expected boost to confidence and mobility between countries that the single-page document was supposed to provide has not materialised. On the contrary, each country has set its own rules and that has generated a lot of uncertainty”. As NC warned back in late June, Europe’s grand reopening risked becoming a bit of a damp squib. Travel restrictions were still in place for many countries, including the UK, where cases of the Delta variant were (and still are) surging. In 2019, the UK ranked as the leading tourist market for Spain, accounting for almost one in every four visitors, as well as Cyprus and Malta. In Greece and Portugal it was the second largest. But it wasn’t until August that British travellers could finally visit the mainland. Many chose not to.Spain received 4.4 million overseas tourists in July, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE). That’s 78% more than last year. But it’s still 55% less than the same month of 2019, back in the old prepandemic days. The overall balance for this year so far is also not overly encouraging. Between January and July 2021, 9.8 million foreigners visited Spain. That’s significantly below the 13.2 million arrivals the country had received by July 2020 — thanks to the two and a half normal months of tourism (January to mid-March) before the first lockdown. It is also 80% lower than the 47.9 million arrivals Spain received in the first seven months of 2019. In other words, recovery is still a long way off. And that is not good news for a sector that provides around 13% of Spain’s GDP. Last year, foreign tourist expenditure collapsed to less than €20 billion, from €92 billion in 2019. Domestic tourism picked up some of the slack, but nonetheless Spain still ended up suffering the second biggest loss in tourism revenues (-$47 billion) worldwide, after the US (-$147 billion).
Travel restrictions are back in Europe for U.S. visitors, at least in some places. - Italy now requires travelers from the United States to take a test before arrival, and unvaccinated American visitors must isolate for five days. Sweden is barring all nonessential U.S. visitors. The Netherlands says vaccinated travelers must isolate after arriving from the United States — and unvaccinated ones are not welcome. In removing the United States from a safe list of countries whose residents can travel without coronavirus testing or quarantine requirements, the European Union last week opened the door to myriad rules, restrictions and hurdles for travelers, with the bloc’s member countries implementing different measures. The surge of coronavirus deaths and hospitalizations in the United States has led some countries — including Bulgaria, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden — to enforce new obstacles, and the list could grow.The E.U. suggestion to reimpose restrictions on unvaccinated U.S. travelers is not binding, however, and many European governments have yet to act on it. Some may even choose to ignore it entirely, creating confusion for travelers.For questions about requirements in a given European Union member state, the best answers can usually be found on the website of its U.S. Embassy. Most, including France, Spain and Germany, still welcome travelers from the United States without much hassle.It is different for a few others, and that’s where the confusion starts.For instance, any traveler from the United States, no matter their nationality, is prohibited from entering Bulgaria “unless they meet an exception,” according to the U.S. Embassy in Sofia. Those exceptions include students with a visa, citizens from an E.U. country, and foreign officials or medical professionals.In Italy, meanwhile, the U.S. Embassy in Rome states that vaccinated travelers must take a virus test 72 hours before arrival, and that unvaccinated ones must isolate for five days. France has no travel restrictions on American visitors, but a “health pass,” based on testing or proof of vaccination, is needed to access cultural venues, restaurants or bars, among other places.These varying measures, which can appear dizzying to non-Europeans, reflect a reality that the pandemic has only amplified: As much as the European Union strives to present a unified front on many issues, the bloc is made of 27 member countries with diverging — sometimes competing — interests, and facing different epidemiological situations. After the European Union closed its external borders in March last year, it urged member states to reopen to U.S. travelers and some others in June, hoping that a revival of tourism would boost E.U. economies. Yet some countries had already moved ahead, while others waited for the recommendations from E.U. officials. A similar scenario is at play with the new travel guidelines. And the hurdles don’t only affect travelers from the United States or other non-European countries; some member states have implemented new measures for travelers coming from other E.U. countries, too. Overall, the European Union has fared better than the United States in vaccinations: 70 percent of the E.U. adult population has been fully inoculated, compared with 64 percent in the United States.And while the more transmissible Delta variant of the virus is becoming dominant in Europe, case numbers across most of the continent have not yet resurged to the levels seen in the United States.
Millions return to school in the UK as doctors and scientists issue warnings - Millions of children returned to school in England yesterday for the first full week back after the summer break, amid warnings from scientists over the rapid spread of COVID-19.The infection rate in the UK among all age groups is currently 26 times higher than it was this time last year, and rising. Over 41,000 people tested positive for the virus yesterday, taking the total for the last week to 263,885 cases, a 12.2 percent increase on the week before. There were 6,573 people admitted to hospital in the last week, a 3.7 percent increase, and 789 deaths, over 110 a day.Yesterday’s case number took the official total in the UK during the pandemic to over 7 million. Case numbers are likely far higher. The ZOE Covid Symptom Study, working with King’s College London, reported an estimated 57,322 daily cases last week—a 10 percent increase on the week before.Pupils at Covid test station as they entered their new secondary school for the first time at Wales High school, Sheffield, England, Friday, Sept. 3, 2021. Fewer measures are in place in schools than during last term, with bubbles and masks no longer in use in England and Wales, while Northern Ireland has also scrapped social distancing requirements. (AP Photo/Rui Vieira)An estimated 30 percent of these cases were among double-vaccinated people, with lead scientist Professor Tim Spector commenting, “we’ve seen evidence that the protection provided by vaccines is wearing off.” This confirms the findings of a major study by Oxford University last month which found waning levels of vaccine efficacy over time for both the AstraZeneca and Pfizer jabs.The infection rate among children—with 30 times more cases—is even more elevated compared to last year than it is for the general population. In the week to August 28, there were more than 300 Covid cases per 100,000 among five to 15-year-olds, compared to 10 in 100,000 in the same week in 2020.These numbers will skyrocket in the next few weeks, as children spend hours a day in schools with no requirements for mask wearing, distancing or contact tracing. The “bubble system”, albeit limited, has been scrapped and no provisions made to improve ventilation. The vast majority of children are still unvaccinated.Dr David Strain, senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School, told Sky News, “The summer holiday acted exactly as a firebreak would. What we’re now expecting is the rates to pick up and the R number to jump to about 1.7—basically doubling in case numbers on a weekly basis.”Professor John Edmunds, a member of the government’s scientific advisory group for emergencies (SAGE) cautioned that there was “a long way to go if we allow infection just to run through the population, that’s a lot of children who will be infected and that will be a lot of disruption to schools in the coming months.”
Elite Educators Have Milked the System for Long Enough -COVID-19 revealed the depth of economic, social and educational inequality in England. State schools had to deal with rising levels of child poverty and inadequate provision of laptops. In response, the government promised state school catch-up funding worth only £50 per pupil – which is pretty palty compared with the £12,866 per pupil average advantage enjoyed by private schools.In 2017-18, state schools in England had a median income of only £5,782 per pupil, while the figure for private schools was nearly four times that – £18,648 – my recent report for the Common Wealth think tank found.It’s little wonder then that throughout the pandemic, private schools had an advantage over their state sector peers. They were able to provide more online teaching than state schools – a gap that actually widened between the first and the second lockdown – and emerged the winners of two summers of chaotic exams.Private schools claim to be “independent” from the state. But many of their sources of income are protected by the state, with favourable tax and regulatory regimes safeguarding their charitable status, business rates exemptions, tuition fee income, stock market investments, property rents and spin-off businesses.Meanwhile, state school spending per pupil is lower than it was in 2010, and will remain so despite increases announced in 2019 that will run to 2023, according to new figures from theInstitute for Fiscal Studies.The crucial question is, not just why state school funding has fallen, but why are children in private schools always worth more, and protected more, than their state-educated peers?
UK parents threatened with fines, jail for refusing to send children into unsafe classrooms -Within days of schools reopening in England, cases of COVID-19 are rising exponentially, and deaths along with them. But still the Conservative government and local authorities—many Labour Party-run—continue to insist that schools are safe, and parents who reject the lie and refuse to send their children into COVID infected classrooms are faced with threats of fines and imprisonment. In the week to September 8, 272,334 people tested positive and 6,748 were admitted to hospital—a daily average of 863. Over 130 people were killed by the virus each day on average, 932 in total. Case rates are highest among those aged 0-19, especially in the 10-19 age group, 43,166 of whom tested positive in the last week. In Scotland, where schools opened on August 11, cases doubled by the end of the month. Children account for almost 40 percent of the new cases, 2,729 out of the 6,836 recorded on Thursday. On Wednesday, Dingwall Academy, one of the largest secondary schools in the Scottish Highlands, was forced to shut due to a “significant number” of COVID cases and the “high number of staff having to self-isolate.” The rest of the UK is following the same path as the ruling elite, and all the official parties, prioritise profits over lives. In Wales, Dr David Hepburn, Intensive Care consultant at the Grange University Hospital in Cwmbran, tweeted that his Intensive Therapy Unit was “now over 50 percent of our capacity with COVID patients” and that patients “are also younger this time around”. In Northern Ireland, the Ulster Teachers’ Union said schools are “on the verge of collapse under the strain of COVID-19,” as a further 3,500 children tested positive in the last week. General Secretary Jacquie White said rising “transmission rates, changes in guidance, as well as the lack of support and availability of tests is causing [schools] to be overwhelmed.” But the union, like education unions across the UK, refuses to call any action to protect its members and those they teach. Instead, White appealed to the government and Education Department—which are enforcing herd immunity—to work “along with the teaching unions and… come up with solutions that will both make the situation manageable for teachers and keep children in schools.”
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