week ending Sep 18

The Fed Speaks Loudly But Carries A Feather - Many Fed members are vocal about tapering soon, but there is reason to believe the Fed will not back their words with action. Might the Fed be speaking loudly and carrying a feather? Expectations for the Fed to turn “hawkish” and announce a tapering schedule at the next meeting or two are high. A recent Wall Street Journal article hints at an announcement at the September 2021 meeting and tapering in November. The solid economic recovery, coupled with gains in employment and a higher than the target inflation rate, supports such an action. We think the Wall Street Journal timetable is correct. However, an analysis of the composition of the Fed by voting status and their degree of influence leads us to keep an open mind. The quotes below from various Fed members speak to a sense of urgency to begin tapering QE.

• “It would be my view that if the economy unfolds between now and our September meeting … if it unfolds the way I expect, I would be in favor of announcing a plan at the September meeting and beginning tapering in October,” Robert Kaplan Dallas Fed August 2021
• “My preference would be to get to a decision in September and start sometime after that,” Bullard told reporters on Friday after giving a virtual speech. “My main goal would be to get done by the end of the first quarter.”– James Bullard St. Louis Fed per Bloomberg July 2021
• “We should go early and go fast, in order to make sure we’re in position to raise rates in 2022, if we have to,” Fed governor Christopher Waller August 2021
• “Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said on Friday that he still supports tapering the central bank’s asset purchases sooner rather than later.” Reuters- August 2021
• “Fed’s Bostic Urges Faster Bond Taper as Economy Strengthens” Bloomberg August 2021
• “I’m less precise about amounts and dates, and really more focused on saying: Sooner rather than later,” Esther George Kansas City Fed August 2021

The most recent Fed’s Beige Book,describing economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts, explains why many members are concerned with inflation and eager to taper. The document starts with a one-paragraph highlight from each district. As shown below, all the summaries include a statement on labor shortages and or wage pressures. The topic is top of mind at the Fed, as it should be. If there are widespread job shortages and intense hiring pressures, as seen in the record number of job openings, wages may continue to rise and foster more inflation.

Quietly, the Fed Has Seduced $1 Trillion a Day into the Best Game in Town – Its Reverse Repo Facility -- by Pam Martens  As COVID-19 concerns took root in March of last year and the stock market plunged, the Fed launched another bailout program for money market funds on March 18, 2020. The program was called theMoney Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) and was run out of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.Going forward, the Fed does not want to be in the position of having to bail out more privately owned money market funds. So the Fed has been seducing money market funds and other financial institutions to use its Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement facility for the assets they need to keep both safe and liquid. The Reverse Repo facility is known internally at the Fed as the ON RRP. A Reverse Repo transaction occurs when the Open Market Trading Desk at the New York Fed sells a security (typically a Treasury security) to one of its approved counterparties with an agreement to repurchase the same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future, typically the next day. The difference between the sale price and the repurchase price, adjusted for the length of time between the sale and purchase, is the implied rate of interest.The Fed’s seduction program has taken a number of forms since March of this year:On March 18, 2021, FOMC minutes indicate that the Fed authorized raising the ON RRP per-counterparty limit from $30 billion per day to $80 billion per day, while also giving the Fed Chair the ability to temporarily increase that limit at his discretion.On April 30, the New York Fed, which operates the ON RRP for the Fed, reduced the dollar amount of its eligibility criteria for users. For example, the requirement that participating mutual funds had to have net assets over the prior six months of at least $5 billion was reduced to $2 billion. Then on June 16, the Fed raised the interest rate it was paying for ON RRPs from zero to 0.05 percent – thus making it the highest paying safe game in town. The enticements have worked. Almost every big-name mutual fund company is now listed as a counterparty to the Fed’s ON RRPs, including: Alliance Bernstein, American Funds, BlackRock, Dreyfus, Federated, Fidelity, Franklin, Schwab, T. Rowe Price, and Vanguard, along with the proprietary funds of banks. Counterparties also include the mega Wall Street banks and government-sponsored enterprises. Full a full list of the Fed’s ON RRP counterparties, click on the little blue circle under “List of Reverse Repo Counterparties” here. Showing just how well the enticements have worked, the daily uptake has increased from less than $1 billion daily at the end of last year to over $1 trillion daily since mid-August of this year. The number of counterparties participating currently ranges from 70 to more than 80 on any given day. That’s up from a range of 40 to 50 participants at the end of May. The adverse consequences of the Fed’s massive new interventions in “free markets,” is yet to be tested. Even the Fed itself has reservations. In a 2015 Fed paper titled “Overnight RRP Operations as a Monetary Policy Tool: Some Design Considerations,” researchers noted this: Quantitative Easing (QE) was not intended to be a permanent feature of the Fed either when it was adopted after the 2008 financial collapse. And yet, here we are in 2021 with the Fed using QE to buy up $120 billion a month in Treasuries and agency Mortgage-Backed Securities.

 The Latest Outrage Over Fed Presidents Trading Stocks Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg - Pam Martens - Last Tuesday, Mike Derby reported at the Wall Street Journal that the President of the Dallas Fed, Robert Kaplan, had “made multiple million-dollar-plus stock trades in 2020, according to a financial disclosure form provided by his bank.” The individual stocks included shares of Apple, Alphabet (Google), Alibaba, Amazon, Chevron, Delta Airlines, Facebook, General Electric, Johnson and Johnson, Oracle, Tesla and numerous others. Kaplan previously spent more than two decades at Goldman Sachs, one of the largest trading houses on Wall Street, and, apparently, he thinks he still works there.Think about this for a moment. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell is repeatedly testifying to Congress last year that its every monetary move during the pandemic was on behalf of the average American, the Dallas Fed President is making million-dollar bets on big tech stocks the Justice Department is investigating for anti-trust activity. In fact, in October of last year, the Justice Department and 11 state attorneys general sued Google for anti-trust actions. On Wednesday of last week, Bloomberg News reporters Craig Torres, Catarina Saraiva, and Steve Matthews reported that the 2020 financial disclosures for Boston Fed President, Eric Rosengren, had “listed stakes in four separate real estate investment trusts and disclosed multiple purchases and sales in those and other securities….” Fed Presidents are privy to market-moving information that the general public is not privy to. That was especially true last year as the Fed took unprecedented measures to combat the economic impact of the pandemic. The Fed slashed the Fed Funds rate to zero, established a panoply of bailout programs for Wall Street, and began buying up $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The news reports of the stock trading by Fed Presidents rightfully caused outrage over the “let them eat cake” attitude as thousands of businesses shut down, millions of workers lost their jobs and families struggled to pay their bills. By Thursday of last week, both Kaplan and Rosengren said they would sell all of their individual stock positions by the end of September. (File that under too little, too late.)This level of arrogance on the part of two Fed Presidents is part of an overarching level of contempt for the sensibilities of the American people by the Federal Reserve over many decades. On August 7 of last year, Wall Street On Parade reported that Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, was having private phone calls with BlackRock CEO, Larry Fink, while BlackRock managed upwards of $25 million of Powell’s personal money and the Fed awarded three no-bid contracts to BlackRock.One of those no-bid contracts allowed BlackRock to use Fed money to buy up corporate bonds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the secondary market, including BlackRock’s own ETFs. American taxpayers’ money was used to backstop losses in these operations.And while the individual stock-trading of Kaplan and Rosengren is indeed an outrage, it pales in comparison to what the New York Fed has been doing for decades.On October 30 of last year, Wall Street On Parade reported that the New York Fed signed a contract with JPMorgan Chase on December 31, 2008 to serve as the sole custodian of the Fed’s holdings of agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Thecontract was updated on January 30, 2017 and continues to this day. As of last Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase was holding $2.4 trillion (principal amount) in MBS backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae that belongs to the Fed.During the term of that Fed contract, JPMorgan Chase has admitted to five felony counts brought by the U.S. Department of Justice. But, apparently, in the Fed’s view, serial criminal activity is not a reason to shop for a new custodian for $2.4 trillion in Fed assets.Then there is the crony “best practices” committees that the New York Fed has established with Wall Street’s serial lawbreakers.

Dallas Fed President Traded S&P 500 Futures. Dallas Fed Will Not Say If He Shorted the Market During Pandemic Crisis in 2020. --By Pam Marten - A transaction that has been missed by major news outlets on the financial disclosure form for Dallas Fed President, Robert Kaplan, is a line item showing that Kaplan made “multiple” trades of more than $1 million in S&P 500 futures.This is a stunning revelation for a multitude of reasons. First, Kaplan’s financial disclosure form shows that he already had exposure to the S&P 500 through more than $1 million in an S&P 500 Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), which trades during regular stock market hours.Using S&P 500 futures gave Kaplan access to making directional bets on where the market would go after the stock market closed, which is typically when the Fed makes market-moving announcements.The most popular and liquid S&P 500 futures contract is the E-mini S&P 500. A person can get as much as 95 percent leverage on this contract – far more than the 50 percent leverage that is available for stock trades.The S&P 500 E-mini trades continuously from 6 p.m. Sunday night through 5 p.m. on Friday evening (EDT). The stock market is open only from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. (EDT) weekdays.A speculator who comes by market moving information after the stock market has closed, can trade on that information using the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract around the clock. If the market speculator thinks the market is going to rise, they go “long” the contract. If they think the market is going to decline, they can “short” the contract. (A short position is a bearish bet that the financial instrument or security will decline in value.)The financial disclosure form provided by Kaplan is for the calendar year 2020. That was an unprecedented year in terms of market volatility and the ability to make huge gains (or losses) in the stock market from short-term trading. As a result of the lockdowns from the pandemic, GDP fell by 31.7 percent in the second quarter – the largest decline on record. At numerous times during 2020, the Fed was making dramatic market-moving announcements of interest rate cuts and the creation of a panoply of emergency lending facilities. From January 1, 2020 through April 30, 2020, based in no small part on these Fed announcements, the S&P 500 Index gyrated from down 30 percent in late March to up 10 percent by the end of April. It was a nimble S&P 500 day trader’s dream market.Throughout 2020, Kaplan was a voting member of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and had access to non-public information.At 1:29 p.m. (EDT) yesterday, we sent an email to two members of the communications team at the Dallas Fed. We asked the following:“Can you let me know if Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan had any short positions in any stocks or other equity positions in 2020. “By short position, I mean any of the following:

1. (1) sold the stock short;
2. (2) bought puts on the stock;
3. (3) shorted single stock futures;
4. (4) held a short position via a derivative position at a bank;
5. (5) shorted S&P 500 futures or any other derivative contract.

“My deadline is 7 p.m. (EDT) this eve.”At 4:07 p.m. (EDT) we received a response via email from one member of the communications team (with a cc to the other member of the team), indicating that they were declining to answer my question.

Powell asks Fed to examine staff trading rules after disclosures - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has ordered a “fresh and comprehensive” examination of the central bank’s ethics rules around permissible financial holdings and activities by senior Fed officials.“This review will assist in identifying ways to further tighten those rules and standards,” a Fed spokeswoman said in a statement Thursday. “The Board will make changes, as appropriate, and any changes will be added to the Reserve Bank Code of Conduct.”Powell gave the order late last week, the Fed said. The move followed revelations about investments and trading earlier in the week by two of the central bank’s senior officials that critics said showed the need to increase Fed accountability and oversight.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of September 12th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average. The 7-day average is down 23.2% from the same day in 2019 (76.8% of 2019). (Dashed line) Note that the dashed line hit a pandemic high over the Labor Day weekend - probably due to leisure travel, but has declined back to pre-holiday levels. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through September 11, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Dining picked up for the Labor Day weekend, but declined after the holiday. The 7-day average for the US is down 6% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 9th. Movie ticket sales were at $162 million last week, down only about 5% from the median for the week due to the blockbuster "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings". This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Occupancy is above the horrible 2009 levels. With solid leisure travel, the Summer months and Labor Day had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel. This data is through September 4th. The occupancy rate was unchanged compared to the same week in 2019, boosted by Labor Day demand and Hurricane Ida. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of September 3rd, gasoline supplied was down 2.0% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been five weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through September 11th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends. All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 115% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph). Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are over 11 million subway turnstile entries per week - and moving mostly sideways recently. This data is through Friday, September 10th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.

 Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-September - Menzie Chinn - Industrial production finally rises above levels in 2020M02 (the latest NBER peak). We now have the following picture of the macroeconomy (for some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from August release (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (9/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.Industrial production hit the Bloomberg consensus, while manufacturing production, at 0.2% m/m, missed the consensus 0.4%.Interestingly, industrial production has not yet exceeded the prior peak achieved in August 2018; the same is true of manufacturing production (August 2018 is a month after Section 301 tariffs were imposed on China).Figure 2: Manufacturing production (blue, left scale), industrial production (tan, left scale), both in logs, 2017M01=0; and US Trade Policy Uncertainty (green, right scale). Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, policyuncertainty.com, and author’s calculations.Correlation is not causation — but you got to wonder. (And, we have formal analyses linking the trade wars generally to reductions in employment in the manufacturing sector, as discussed e.g., here).You can see how China has met — or not met — its commitments in the Phase 1 US-China trade agreement here. The foregoing suggests to me a managed two-sided de-escalation of tariff measures could help spur economic activity (and pretty likely decrease upward price pressures).

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 4.5% --GDP forecasts had been downgraded sharply for Q3 due to COVID, but now seem to have stabilized. Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last two months. […] From BofA Merrill Lynch: We continue to track 4.5% qoq saar for 3Q GDP following the retail sales data as our forecast was far above consensus. [Sept 17 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: Following the stronger-than-expected retail sales report, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 1pp at +4.5% (qoq ar). We are also lowering our 2021Q4 and 2022Q2 GDP forecasts by 0.5pp to reflect a smaller rebound from 2021Q3. [Sept 16 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.6 percent on September 16, down from 3.7 percent on September 10 after rounding. [Sept 16 estimate]

Treasury Secretary Yellen warns US government could run out of money unless debt ceiling is lifted --A crisis for the US and global financial system is looming, unless a conflict over lifting the US debt ceiling can be quickly resolved. The conflict came into public prominence last week, when US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote a letter to Congress, warning that the government was running out of money, after a debt limit on government borrowing was reinstated on August 1. The limit had been suspended for the previous two years. Since then, Yellen wrote, the Treasury had been “employing certain extraordinary measures” to ensure that the government could continue to fund itself, but these measures were reaching their limit. “Once all available measures and cash on hand are fully exhausted, the United States of America would be unable to meet its obligations, for the first time in our history,” she said. The Treasury was not able to provide a specific estimate of how long the extraordinary measures would last, but the best and most recent estimate was that money would run out some time in the middle of October. This is not the first time a conflict has arisen over the debt ceiling. The last major battle was in 2011, during the Obama administration. While it was ultimately resolved, and a default avoided, the conflict produced significant turbulence in financial markets and led to a downgrade of the US government’s credit rating, for the first time in history. Standard and Poor’s lowered the nation’s credit worthiness from AAA to AA+. It is estimated the conflict cost the government $1.3 billion in increased interest charges on its debt in 2011, with additional costs in the years that followed. Reporting on the present dispute, the Financial Times wrote that “stand-offs over the debt limit are sometimes dismissed as political theatre that is ultimately resolved, but top Biden administration officials view the stand-off with increasing seriousness.” Those concerns were set out in Yellen’s letter. “We have learned from past debt limit impasses that waiting until the last minute to suspend or increase the debt limit can cause serious harm to business and consumer confidence, raise short-term borrowing costs for taxpayers, and negatively impact the credit rating of the United States,” she wrote. “A delay that calls into question the federal government’s ability to meet all its obligations would likely cause irreparable damage to the US economy and global financial markets.” She urged that Congress address the debt limit with “broad partisan support,” in order to “protect the full faith and credit of the United States by acting as soon as possible.” But “broad partisan support” is the least likely of all outcomes, as the debt ceiling issue has become part of Republican opposition to the Biden administration’s spending programs.

 CEOs urge Congress to raise debt limit or risk 'avoidable crisis' - The Business Roundtable on Wednesday sent a letter to congressional leaders warning that they could create an economic crisis if they fail to swiftly raise the debt limit. The lobbying group, which represents CEOs at some of the nation’s largest companies, is among the first high-profile business organizations to publicly weigh in on the debt ceiling, indicating that Congress’s inaction on the issue is making corporate America nervous. “Failure to lift the U.S. federal debt limit to meet U.S. obligations would produce an otherwise avoidable crisis and pose unacceptable risk to the nation’s economic growth, job creation and financial markets,” Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten and Walmart CEO Doug McMillon wrote in a letter to congressional leaders.The executives wrote that continued inaction on the debt limit could cause an erosion of the nation’s credit rating that would saddle the federal government and U.S. corporations with higher borrowing costs amid a deadly pandemic. The urgency comes as lawmakers refuse to come to an agreement on how to raise the debt limit, despite Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s warning that the federal government will default on its debt sometime next month if Congress doesn’t take action.

Debt Ceiling Nonsense Yet Again – A Catch 22? by Barkley Rosser - Of course, there should be no debt ceiling. The US is the only nation to have one for absolute amounts of money (some other nations have ones tied to percents of budgets, and so forth). Even though it is nonsensical and absurd, it has been around for over a century, a recrudescence of a deal to get funding approved by Congress for WW I in the wake of the passage in 1913 of the new amendment allowing a federal income tax. Somehow nobody in Congress or any White House has the guts to push for the ending of this thing, so it hangs on like some stinking zombie. Of course, for most of the time since it was passed, Congresses have been “responsible” and raised the ceiling without too much fuss, although it has been normal when different parties occupy the White House and the Congress for there to be some grumbling by people in Congress before they do the responsible thing. But in recent decades, while Dems in Congress have been responsible, raising the debt ceiling several times for President Trump, we have on several occasions see GOPs in Congress make big stinks and force temporary government shutdowns while making demands for this or that. The current situation is probably not that bad, but absurdity is definitely reigning. Assuming they can keep all their people in line, especially Sen. Manchin of WV, it can probably be raised by reconciliation. But GOP Sen. McConnell is loudly declaring no GOP will support raising it, and has threatened a filibuster, although reconciliation can get around that if all Dems agree. However, even as he is loudly declaring not GOP support for raising the debt ceiling, he is also demanding that it be raised so that government bills get paid. I really have no comment on this further, aside from noting that this is just further evidence on why this silly thing needs to be done away with once and for all.

House Democrats Consider 26.5% Corporate Tax Rate – WSJ —House Democrats expect to propose raising the corporate tax rate to 26.5% from 21% and imposing a 3-percentage-point surtax on individual income above $5 million, according to two House Democratic aides familiar with the plans.The tax increases would be part of the House Ways and Means Committee’s plans to pay for the party’s priorities in a fast-moving budget bill. Those items include an expanded child tax credit, a national paid-leave program and renewable-energy tax breaks.House Democrats also are considering raising the minimum tax on U.S. companies’ foreign income to 16.5% from 10.5% and increasing the top capital-gains tax rate to 28.8% from 23.8%. Lawmakers are also expected to raise money by expanding Internal Revenue Service enforcement and might include other tax increases on corporations and high-income individuals. Until now, House Democrats have been coy about their tax-increase plans as they try to navigate between moderates worried about the economic impact of raising taxes and progressives eager to tax the rich and expand the social safety net. Rep. Richard Neal (D., Mass.), the committee chairman, has said that detailing tax-increase plans too soon can give too much time for opposition to build. The plans, aimed for a Ways and Means Committee vote later this week, will face challenges as Democrats try to determine how far they are willing to go in reversing the 2017 tax cuts and imposing stiffer burdens on corporations and high-income households. Some Senate Democrats, including Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Mark Warner of Virginia, have said they don’t want to raise the corporate tax rate above 25% from its current 21%. The Biden administration and Democrats such as Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden of Oregon have advocated for far more aggressive capital-gains tax increases than congressional Democrats are willing to support. Andrew Bates, a White House spokesman, praised the committee’s ideas and said the administration looks forward to working with lawmakers. The committee hasn’t yet released details of its proposed changes, effective dates for each provision or estimates of how much money each piece would raise. The proposals could change significantly as lawmakers debate and vote on them. On Sunday, tax lobbyists and congressional aides were circulating a four-page document that roughly spells out how Democrats would get to $3.5 trillion to pay for their spending and tax cuts over a decade. The document doesn’t say how final a plan it is or whether Democratic lawmakers have agreed to it. By showing the scale of the tax increases needed to hit that budget target, the document could prompt lawmakers to scale back their aims or issue debt to cover some of the cost. It includes $1 trillion in tax increases on individuals, $900 billion on corporations, $700 billion from drug-pricing policy changes, and $120 billion from tougher tax enforcement. Adding miscellaneous other changes and an assumption that the economy will grow reaches $3.5 trillion. Democrats have a narrow path. They can lose no more than three votes in the House and none in the Senate, and lawmakers such as Mr. Manchin are aiming to shrink the bill from the $3.5 trillion target that Democratic leaders have set. Democrats agree broadly that they are willing to raise the corporate tax rate and the top individual tax rate. But other areas, particularly capital gains and international tax rules, have proven trickier.

House Democrats Propose Cutting Estate Tax Exemption, Offer Higher Farmland Exclusion -- Farmers, ranchers and other small-business owners will need to spend the next few months through the end of the year working with their accountants because of the ripple effects from tax proposals introduced Monday by House Democrats. The tax bill dropped Monday by Democrats on the House Ways & Means Committee includes an array of changes to estate assets, trusts, corporate taxes and business deductions. If the bill becomes law, many of those tax changes will go into effect at the beginning of 2022. The bill is considered to protect "stepped-up basis" for farmers, but the bill cuts the estate tax in half. Farmers and ranchers who own their farm ground would be better off than farmers or ranchers who rent land but have more assets tied up in machinery. Some of the bill language on estate taxes was different than earlier proposals floated by Democrats. "We're trying to figure out exactly how all of this interplays," said Dustin Sherer, director of congressional relations for the American Farm Bureau Federation. "There are four different changes to the estate-tax code, and we're still trying to evaluate how they will interplay with each other." Democrats on the House Ways & Means Committee released a sweeping set of proposals to increase taxes on corporations and high-income earners to pay for at least part of the proposed $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation spending bill in the House. The 881-page bill would roll back many of the provisions of the 2017 tax cuts. The House Ways & Means Committee will hold a markup meeting Tuesday morning to advance the bill. If that markup is similar to other committees in the budget reconciliation package, amendment votes will be by straight party line, blocking any Republican amendments to change the bill. The tax accounting firm K-Coe Isom was among the farm groups, business organizations and accounts on Monday trying to decipher all the possible impacts in the bill. It's a big deal given that some of the tax changes would go into effect starting in 2022, and a few would even start now -- if the bill becomes law.

House Democrats take step back from Biden on tax hikes - House Democrats on Monday released tax-increase legislation that scales back some of President Biden’s key proposals as they work to craft a massive social spending package that can get the votes to become law. The bill text released Monday by the House Ways and Means Committee includes a variety of tax increases targeted at wealthy individuals and corporations in an effort to help pay for $3.5 trillion in spending and tax cuts in areas such as child care, climate and health care. But in many ways it is not as aggressive in raising taxes as Biden has proposed, prompting criticism from progressive groups. “They have a once in a lifetime opportunity to address the egregious, unfair treatment that the wealthy get in the tax code, and the committee has refused to do it,” said Erica Payne, president and founder of the Patriotic Millionaires. There are several areas where House Democrats’ proposal does not go as far in increasing taxes on corporations and the rich as Biden had proposed earlier this year. The Ways and Means Committee would raise the corporate tax rate for income above $5 million from 21 percent to 26.5 percent, while Biden had called for a 28 percent corporate tax rate. The committee called for raising the top capital gains rate from 20 percent to 25 percent, while Biden proposed raising it further to match the top tax rate for wage income. And the committee’s bill does not include a proposal Biden offered to tax capital gains at death. Additionally, the committee’s proposal limits but does not fully eliminate the carried interest tax break benefiting investment fund managers, while Biden would eliminate the preference. And the committee’s proposal would not increase a minimum tax on U.S. corporations’ foreign earnings by as much as Biden would. House Democrats released their bill months after Biden offered his proposals, and their measure appears to take into account some of the criticism from moderate Democrats about the president’s plans. Biden’s proposals on the corporate tax rate, capital gains and international tax changes have all drawn concerns from moderates. There are also places where the committee’s bill matches Biden’s plan or goes beyond its scope. For example, Biden proposed raising the top individual tax rate from 37 percent to 39.6 percent. The Ways and Means Committee does this and also would impose a 3 percent surtax on individuals’ income above $5 million. Both Biden and the Ways and Means Committee also proposed providing the IRS with an additional $80 billion to strengthen tax enforcement and update technology. Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) said in a statement Monday that his panel is “responsibly funding” their spending plans. White House principal deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday called the legislation a “first step.” She said it advances Biden’s goals of cutting taxes for families, repealing former President Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations and not raising taxes on families making under $400,000. Left-leaning groups were less positive.

Manchin slams $3.5T plan, says climate bill 'makes no sense' - Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) threw more cold water on the process. On multiple talk shows yesterday, he said he would not vote for a $3.5 trillion plan and suggested it should be scaled back to no more than $1.5 trillion. “It’s not going to be at $3.5 [trillion], I can assure you,” said Manchin on CNN’s "State of the Union," He also said there’s “no way” Democrats will meet a goal floated by House leaders of having the plan pass later in September. Manchin dismissed Democrats’ chief proposal to combat climate change: an effort focused on clean energy payments to utilities, saying it “makes no sense at all” (see related story). Manchin’s opposition is not only significant as the Energy chair, but also because Democrats cannot afford to lose a single vote in the 50-50 Senate if they plan to pass the filibuster-proof reconciliation plan. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), also a moderate, has signaled some concern with the proposed spending levels. Senate Budget Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who is overseeing the writing of the plan, called $1.5 trillion in new spending “unacceptable” on CNN yesterday and said many progressive Democrats have already compromised by agreeing to $3.5 trillion. Sanders stressed the reconciliation legislation is meant to build on a bipartisan, $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which already passed the Senate with wide support and awaits House action. “Senator Manchin worked very hard on what’s called the bipartisan infrastructure bill. … What we have worked on is working both of those bills in tandem. They go together,” said Sanders. “And it would be a really sad state of affairs for the American people, for Congress, if both of those bills went down.” Sanders was alluding to his progressive allies in the House who have said they’ll only move the infrastructure bill if the Senate supports a $3.5 trillion reconciliation package with several climate priorities. Among those are clean energy payments, an energy tax overhaul, the creation of a Civilian Climate Corps and a stepped-up focus on environmental justice. While the Senate proposal is being negotiated behind closed doors, the House Energy and Commerce Committee will mark up its portion of the reconciliation bill beginning today. It will include a new methane tax on producers. Meanwhile, Ways and Means moves ahead tomorrow with a slate of expanded clean energy tax incentives

US: Democrats try delicate tax maneuvers for $3.5 trillion bill - House Democrats began the serious work of trying to implement President Joe Biden's expansive spending plan, but getting there will require remarkable legislative nimbleness, since Biden has said the revenue to pay for it must come only from Americans who earn more than USD 400,000 a year. Republicans, who have vowed lockstep opposition to the plan, turned their anger against proposed tax breaks they portrayed as subsidies for wealthy elites rather than help for the poor and middle class. Electric vehicles became a rallying symbol as class-warfare overtones echoed through a committee session. The Democrats are proposing that the top tax rate rise back to 39.6 per cent on individuals earning more than USD 400,000 or USD 450,000 for couples in addition to a 3 per cent surtax on wealthier Americans with adjusted income beyond USD 5 million a year. For big business, the proposal would lift the corporate tax rate from 21 per cent to 26.5 per cent on companies' annual income over USD 5 million. Look, I don't want to punish anyone's success, but the wealthy have been getting a free ride at the expense of the middle class for too long, Biden tweeted Tuesday. I intend to pass one of the biggest middle class tax cuts ever paid for by making those at the top pay their fair share. The reach for revenue from the wealthy was even billboarded at the ultra-chic Met Gala in Manhattan Monday night. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., a leading House progressive, wore a white gown with Tax the Rich" in giant red letters emblazoned on the back (designer Aurora James). For middle- and low-income people, tax help, not increase, is on offer as the House Ways and Means Committee digs into debate and drafting of tax proposals to both fund and buttress Biden's ambitious USD 3.5 trillion rebuilding plan that includes spending for child care, health care, education and tackling climate change. It's an opening bid at a daunting moment for Biden and his allies in Congress as they assemble the Build Back Better package considered by some on par with the Great Society of the 1960s or even the New Deal of the 1930s Depression. The proposals call for USD 273 billion in tax breaks for renewable energy and clean electricity, including USD 42 billion for electric vehicles and USD 15 billion for a green workforce and environmental items. Increases in the child tax credit to USD 300 a month per child under 6 and USD 250 monthly per child 6-17, which came in coronavirus relief legislation earlier this year, would be extended through 2025. The House Energy and Commerce Committee, meanwhile, advanced proposals promoting clean electricity, investments in electric vehicles and other climate provisions. The 30-27 vote along party lines sends the energy measure forward as part of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's goal to approve the huge overall package. The energy panel's USD 456 billion slice is the most consequential for dealing with climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, along with the tax breaks debated by the Ways and Means Committee. The Democratic proposals would invest USD 150 billion in grants to encourage power companies to provide clean electricity from renewable sources such as wind and solar. Electricity suppliers would receive grants based on how much clean electricity they provide, as part of Biden's plan to stop climate-damaging fossil fuel emissions from US power plants by 2035. All GOP lawmakers are expected to vote against the overall legislation. But Republicans are largely sidelined as Democrats rely on a budget process that will allow them to approve the proposals on their own if they can muster their slight majority in Congress. Democrats have no votes to spare to enact Biden's agenda, with their slim hold on the House and with the Senate split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker, if there is no Republican support. But one Democratic senator vital to the bill's fate, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, says the cost will need to be slashed to USD 1 trillion to USD 1.5 trillion to win his support. Manchin also has said he will not support a number of clean energy and climate provisions pushed by Democrats.

Bernie Sanders on Compromising on the Budget Bill - After three decades in Washington, Sanders is at the height of his powers, and on the cusp of delivering a version of the policies he’s advocated for his entire career. But in order to do that, one of the Senate’s oldest progressive agitators has relied on a timeless legislative skill rarely mentioned in his campaign speeches: compromise. While Sanders initially envisioned a $6 trillion spending bill, he knew it was unrealistic. He sensed from both his personal relationship with Biden and the policies the President was putting forward—like two years of free community college and universal access to pre-K—that he had a better chance of getting at least some of what he wanted if he was willing to come down on the price.Throughout the spring, Sanders huddled with the leadership of the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) to come up with their five top priorities: investments in home care services and affordable housing; lower drug prices and Medicare eligibility; and creation of climate jobs. Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, the whip of the CPC, recalls meeting with Sanders over a dozen times. “The dollar amounts were really not the focus of the conversation, but more in regards to getting… a bill that meets the moment, and making sure that the Progressive Caucus was using its influence,” she says. Sanders also pressured the White House: In the Oval Office in July, he pushed Biden to include hearing aids, eyeglasses, and dental coverage in the Medicare expansion, and Biden agreed. “Though it was not in the original Families Plan announced in April, Senator Sanders repeatedly pressed the President to embrace his proposal to expand Medicare coverage for dental, hearing aids, and vision,” says a senior White House aide. “He made that case passionately, strongly in the Oval, and the President gave his full backing.” Sanders’ strategy, says one Congressional aide familiar with the dynamics of progressive wing, was to “lay out a left flank marker that would then have gravity, and pull the debate to the left.” Progressives credit Sanders with getting what they so far view as a favorable compromise. “I don’t think we would have ended up with three and a half trillion,” the aide says, “If [Sanders] hadn’t done that.”After weeks of negotiating with both the White House and his own committee, Sanders says the $3.5 trillion number was reached thanks to “a lot of talking and a lot of heartburn.” For him, it’s a mixed bag. Ideas he had been championing for years, like a wealth tax and Medicare for All, were not in there. But other progressive wish list items, like an extension of the child tax credit and tax increases on the wealthy, were included. “All of the major provisions remain in the bill: that is the good news,” he says. “The bad news is, we are not funding them, at this point, for as long a period as I want.”

Bill Keeps Stepped-up Basis but Raises Tax Rates on Estates, Higher-Income Businesses - The House Ways and Means Committee on Wednesday advanced a tax package expected to generate roughly $2.1 trillion over 10 years as part of the budget reconciliation that will change how farm and ranch estate taxes are calculated going forward.The measure makes multiple changes to estate-tax exemptions and rates but protects stepped-up basis in valuing estates at the time of death that the Biden administration proposed to protect farmers. House Agriculture Committee Chairman David Scott, D-Ga., praised the Ways and Means Committee for not making specific changes to stepped-up basis that had drawn fire from farm organizations across the country.Earlier this month, coalitions of farm groups had told Congress they were opposed to the elimination of stepped-up basis. Separately, the National Farmers Union, the most Democratic-leaning farm group, told congressional leaders its members opposed the elimination of stepped-up basis because "burdensome new tax liabilities may lead to the premature sale of family farms and ranches and contribute to a worrying trend toward greater farmland consolidation and corporate control of our food system." The bill rolls back the current estate tax and gift tax exemptions from the current $11.7 million to an inflation-adjusted $5.85 million and would roll back those estate tax changes starting Jan. 1, 2022.Other highlights of the plan include the following.

• -- Capital Gains: For people with stocks or real estate who sell the assets, the bill increases the capital gains rate in multiple ways. For couples with incomes above $450,000, taxes on capital gains would increase from 20% to 25%, but it could also include a new 3.8% tax on net investment income plus a 3% surtax. That would put the top capital gains rate at 31.8%. A caveat currently in the bill language also applies the higher capital gains rates for sales starting Sept. 13, 2021, the day Ways and Means introduced the bill.
• -- Corporate Rates: The bill also makes multiple changes to corporate tax rates. It would replace the current 21% rate for all corporations with three scaled rates. The bill lowers the corporate tax rate to 18% for corporations making under $400,000 in taxable income; a 21% rate for taxable income between $400,000 and $5 million; and a 26.5% rate for taxable income above $5 million. These rate changes would start Jan. 1, 2022.
• -- Income Rates: The top margin tax rate would move from 37% to 39.6%, the level it was before 2017, for married couples with incomes above $450,000; $400,000 for individuals.

But high-income earners could also be subject to the 3.8% investment tax and a 3% surtax. People with the highest income levels -- married couples filing jointly above $5 million in modified adjusted gross income -- would have a 3% surtax.Estates and trusts with taxable income above $12,500 would also be taxed at 39.6%. Estates with modified adjusted gross incomes above $100,000 would face a 3% surtax as well.

As Democrats shield wealth of billionaires, Biden pleads with super-rich to pay their “fair share” - On Thursday, President Joe Biden made a demagogic speech from the White House presenting his “Build Back Better” budget plan as a historic reversal of the decades-long enrichment of the corporate elite at the expense of working people.Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., meets with reporters to discuss President Joe Biden's domestic agenda at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)He cited a number of indices of the wholesale looting of society by the corporations and the super-rich, including:

• US billionaires have seen their wealth increase by $1.8 trillion since the beginning of the pandemic.
• Fifty of the largest corporations in the US paid zero taxes in 2020, while collectively taking in over $40 billion in profits.
• The top 1 percent in the US evade an estimated $160 billion in taxes they owe every year.

“This is the moment to deal working people back into the economy. This is the moment to prove to the American people that the government works for them,” Biden declared.But having made the case for the seizure of the wealth of what he referred to as the “pandemic profiteers,” he hastened to add: “I’m not out to punish anyone. I’m a capitalist. If you can make a million or a billion dollars, that’s great. God bless you. All I’m asking is you pay your fair share.”Biden made his remarks one day after House Democrats assembled the various parts of the overall budget plan that had been drafted and approved by numerous House committees. The 26,000-page package purports to allocate $3.5 trillion over 10 years for social welfare measures, paid for in part by $2.1 trillion in tax hikes for large corporations and wealthy individuals.The Senate is in the process of assembling its own version of the budget. What ultimately emerges from the process of internal horse-trading between various factions of the Democratic Party, manipulated by a massive corporate lobbying campaign to block any serious incursions into the profits and the personal fortunes of the ruling oligarchy, will be far more modest than even the timid measures contained in the current House proposal.The Democrats narrowly control both chambers, and the Republican Party is 100 percent opposed to the administration’s budget plan and pledged to vote against it. In order to circumvent a filibuster in the evenly divided Senate, the Democrats are seeking to pass their budget under the budget reconciliation procedure, which requires only a majority vote in the upper chamber, 50 Democrats and the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris and cannot be filibustered.That means Biden and the Democratic leadership cannot afford to lose a single Democratic vote. In the House, they cannot lose more than three Democratic votes. As a result, corporate interests are asserting their demands most directly via their bribed mouthpieces within the Democratic congressional caucuses.

Ocasio-Cortez at the Met Gala: The farce, the spectacle, and the politics - On Monday evening, New York Congresswoman and Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) member Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez accompanied some of the world’s richest and most influential actors, fashion moguls and politicians at the Met Gala, one of the most prominent and exclusive social events in the world. The Gala is an annual fundraising event to benefit the Metropolitan Museum of Art’s Costume Institute, in New York City. Tickets start at $30,000. The event itself is perhaps best described as a circus of the rich, with gaggles of millionaires and billionaires parading down the red carpet, one bizarre costume after another, all under the banner of “culture” and art. The goal appears to be to show off their fortunes in as dramatic and absurd a fashion as possible. Kim Kardashian (net worth $1.2 billion), for example, showed up in a faceless, full-body black spandex morphsuit, resembling some type of Marvel villain. Incredibly, the look was hailed as the “most relevant” of the night. Rapper Lil Nas X wore a royal gold robe, covered in gold beading over an actual golden suit of armor, made by Versace no less. Collectively, the price of the outfits alone was likely enough to feed a small country. What was Ocasio-Cortez, the self-proclaimed “socialist,” doing at such an event? Ocasio-Cortez explained to reporters that she was there to “kick open the doors at the Met” and “to break the fourth wall and challenge some of the institutions.” Framing her appearance as a social justice crusade, the congresswoman wore a $10,000 dress with the words “Tax the Rich” in red on the lower back half. She told reporters that her dress was made by New York-based Aurora James, a “sustainably focused, Black woman immigrant designer.” Aurora James is known for her “15% Pledge” campaign, which encourages retailers and corporations to commit 15 percent of their purchasing power to supporting black-owned businesses. Ocasio-Cortez explained to reporters that she intended to send the message: “When we talk about supporting working families and when we talk about having a fair tax code, oftentimes this conversation is happening among working and middle class people [on] the senate floor,” she stated. By attending the Gala, she was seeking to “bring all classes in the discussion” on taxing the rich. One is expected to believe that Elon Musk was left shaking in his boots as Ocasio-Cortez gallivanted about at the Gala in her “statement” dress. There is no indication that he or any other attendee spent the evening consumed by a moral crisis. And all of the institutions of American capitalism likewise appear unshaken by Ocasio-Cortez’s appearance. As for her reference to the “discussion” among the “working and middle class” people in the Senate, it is hardly necessary to point out that the US Congress is composed largely of millionaires whose fortunes primarily come from their careers and connections in corporate America.

House Democrat threatens to vote against party's spending bill if HBCUs don't get more federal aid - Rep. Alma Adams (D-N.C.) has threatened not to back her party’s forthcoming $3.5 trillion social spending plan unless the package includes more federal aid for historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs).“We can’t build back better unless we build our HBCUs back better. Promises made must be promises kept," Adams told Punchbowl News, which was first to break the news on Friday.A Democratic source familiar with the congresswoman’s plans also confirmed the report to The Hill.The move by Adams comes as Democrats have gotten heat from some who say the massive spending plan the party is working to craft fails to meet the moment for HBCU funding.One of the provisions in the plan Adams has taken issue with is a portion of the bill pertaining to research and development grants for HBCUs and minority serving institutions (MSIs), the source said. That section would reserve $2 billion toward those purposes, which the source noted is significantly less than the billions more previously proposed by President Biden. A few weeks ago, Adams, a staunch advocate for HBCUs, and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) wrote to the heads of the House and Senate education committees to push for $40 billion in funding to improve physical and research structure at HBCUs and MSIs — a request the aide said was denied.At the time, the pair, both graduates of HBCUs, pointed to the systemic barriers the institutions have faced when it comes to making infrastructure investments and receiving federal research funding. In a June 2018 report released by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, a number of HBCUs surveyed reported millions in deferred maintenance backlogs. There is also a history of majority-white institutions receiving federal research funding at disproportionate ratesto HBCUs.While the source said Adams thinks the Biden administration has helped make great strides for HBCUs so far, she has concerns that the current language in the legislative text of Democrats’ coming spending plan pits HBCUs against other MSIs instead of having dedicated funding streams. The United Negro College Fund Inc. (UNCF) also released a statementregarding the language drafted by the House’s Committee on Education and Labor for the plan after legislative text was made public.Michael L. Lomax, president and CEO of the UNCF, said then that more “financial investments must be made” and that HBCUs “should never be put in a position to compete against the more well-resourced institutions that have higher endowments and team of grant writers ready, willing and able to siphon off the funding that the Biden administration imagined would help our institutions.”There are more than 100 HBCUs in the nation, compared to more than 800 MSIs, according to The Washington Post. In a recent interview with the paper, Lodriguez Murray, UNCF’s senior vice president for public policy and government affairs, also noted a number of MSIs that are larger have more resources on hand than most HBCUs, including grant writers.

Hoyer affirms House will vote Sept. 27 on bipartisan infrastructure bill - House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) on Friday affirmed the chamber will vote on the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill on Sept. 27, signaling Democratic leaders are still plowing full speed ahead on their planned timeline even though the larger $3.5 trillion bill to invest in social safety net programs still faces tough hurdles. In a letter to lawmakers previewing this month's legislative session, Hoyer said the House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill the last week of September "pursuant to the rule passed in August." Under that agreement between Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and a small group of moderates, the House is scheduled to vote Sept. 27 on the bipartisan infrastructure bill even though progressives have long warned they won't support it if the larger, Democratic-only social spending package isn't completed yet. The 13 House committees tasked with writing the $3.5 trillion package completed their work and advanced their respective portions this week, adhering to a Sept. 15 goal set by Democratic leaders. Once the House returns on Monday from its summer recess, Pelosi will be tasked with rounding up the votes for the package with a slim majority that means she can only afford up to three defections. Multiple tricky policy disputes remain unresolved, including lifting the cap on the state and local tax deduction and empowering Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices. Aside from Democrats' two-part infrastructure plan, the House has a packed agenda for the next two weeks it is scheduled to be in session. Congress has to pass a bill to keep the federal government funded past Sept. 30, when the current fiscal year ends. Lawmakers also need to pass legislation to raise the debt limit, which Republicans have vowed to oppose in protest of Democrats' massive social spending legislation. Hoyer said the House will vote next week on a stopgap measure to keep the government funded, which is likely to last sometime into early December. He added that it will include supplemental funding for localities fixing damage from recent storms, like Hurricane Ida, which ravaged Louisiana and the East Coast, as well as for resettlement efforts for Afghans who worked with the U.S. during the war there. Hoyer additionally indicated that the House will act next week on addressing the debt limit. "The House will also take action to suspend the debt limit to ensure that America pays its bills on time," Hoyer wrote. Beyond those fiscal deadlines, Hoyer confirmed the House will also vote next week on legislation to guarantee access to abortion after the Supreme Court earlier this month refused to block a restrictive Texas law that bans the procedure in almost all cases. "Inaction by the Supreme Court to halt implementation of S.B. 8, the threat of other state attacks on the constitutional right to reproductive choice recognized in Roe v. Wade, and decades of precedent leave the House no choice but to act. We must ensure that women and health care providers are protected and that a woman's access to health care is not determined by where she lives," Hoyer wrote. Other items slated for time on the jam-packed House floor schedule include the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which advanced out of the House Armed Services Committee earlier this month.

Liberals get ready to grab wheel of Dem agenda - Speaker Nancy Pelosi's left flank is quietly mulling whether to mobilize its roughly 100-member bloc to tank the centrist-crafted Senate infrastructure bill when it reaches the House floor within a week — unless they're assured that a mammoth Democrats-only social spending bill will also make it to President Joe Biden’s desk. Progressive leaders see the coming House infrastructure vote as perhaps their most influential moment so far in Biden’s Washington. They were largely sidelined when Pelosi negotiated her way out of a standoff with centrist Democrats last month, and many are eager to demonstrate that the power of an emboldened left can match that of moderates who've repeatedly flexed on leadership over the multitrillion-dollar party-line spending plan. “Even if there were Republicans that come along" to help the Senate infrastructure bill pass the House this month, said Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), "we will have more individuals, more Democrats who are going to vote it down without the reconciliation bill." Jayapal said more than half of her 96-member caucus has privately indicated they’re willing to block the bipartisan Senate bill without their party-line bill in tow — far more than the roughly two dozen liberals who have gone public with their threat. “I feel very confident in our numbers, and it is far beyond 20,” the Washington Democrat said. The House returns Monday for a pivotal two-week session that's set to include a long-awaited vote on that Senate infrastructure deal. The plan, agreed to by Pelosi and moderates, is to vote on the bill by Sept. 27, in tandem with an up-to-$3.5 trillion package that funds dozens of liberal aims, from universal pre-K to Medicare expansion. But as an intraparty tussle threatens that ambitious timeline, the party-line bill may not be ready by late September. And progressives fear Pelosi’s truce with centrists could leave their members with vanishingly few of their priorities. Behind the scenes, progressive members have begun discussing how to wield their influence under the worst-case scenario: passage of the Senate infrastructure bill this month, with little progress on the party’s vast $3.5 trillion social spending plan. Still, even as several liberals vow to oppose the infrastructure bill, many senior Democrats contend it will be much tougher to make good on that threat when it actually comes to the floor. If enough liberals are willing to hold up that legislation as leverage, some believe it would force moderates’ hands on the party’s much broader social spending package, which is funded in part by tax increases on the wealthy and corporations. “A lot of us agreed to move the bipartisan bill with the understanding that the House was going to move them together. It’s certainly not my preference to let the bipartisan bill go without an agreement on reconciliation,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a former House member. Many Democrats, though, are skeptical about defeating a major Biden priority — even temporarily. “I’m not worried about the bill,” said House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, a close Biden ally. But the South Carolinian also wouldn’t say whether leadership would try to delay the infrastructure vote if the party-line bill isn’t ready, an outcome many Democrats fear given how tense the private negotiations are with the Senate.

What's behind the push for a fourth stimulus check? -The IRS has issued more than 169 million payments in the third round of direct stimulus aid, with more than 2 million people in July receiving the $1,400 checks. But some lawmakers are pushing for a fourth round of stimulus aid that would effectively send recurring payments until the pandemic ends.So far, the federal response to the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemichas paid out $3,200 to eligible adults: $1,200 under the Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act in March 2020; $600 in a December relief measure; and $1,400 under the American Rescue Plan signed in March by President Joe Biden. Despite that financial assistance, millions of Americans remain in financial distress, and the spread of the Delta variant is creating new economic headwinds. Almost one-quarter of Americans struggled to pay their household expenses in the previous week, according to new Census survey data that polled people during the last two weeks of August.The unemployment rate stands at 5.2%, still higher than its pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. And while businesses are hiring, there are still about 5.3 million fewer people are on payrolls today than before the pandemic. Economists are signaling alarm over the spread of the Delta variant, with Oxford Economics recently cutting its forecast for 2021's global economic growth to 5.9% from 6.4%."Uncertainty and hesitancy may ultimately lead to a more slow-burning recovery from here than our baseline assumes," wrote Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, in the report.At the same time, 9.1 million people lost enhanced unemployment benefits on Labor Day, when the federal benefits expired. That will wipe out about $5 billion in weekly benefits that had been flowing to unemployed workers — aid that had supported those workers in paying for groceries, rent and other essentials. For many people, in short, the latest round of $1,400 checks is long gone even as other pandemic stimulus is coming to an end — an issue that is on the minds of many Americanswho continue to struggle with joblessness and a weak labor market. Indeed, more than 2.8 million people have signed a Change.org petition started last year that calls on lawmakers to pass legislation for recurring $2,000 monthly payments. Some lawmakers have picked up the idea. Twenty-one senators — all Democrats — signed a March 30 letter to Mr. Biden in support of recurring stimulus payments, pointing out that the $1,400 payment being distributed by the IRS won't tide people over for long.

 Yellen urges House to include IRS reporting provision in budget package — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee to include a provision requiring banks to report customer transaction data to the Internal Revenue Service amid negotiations over the $3.5 trillion budgetreconciliation bill.The IRS reporting measure, which has come under fire from the banking industry, would mandate that banks and other financial institutions report transaction data to the government for all accounts with more than $600 in inflows or outflows. Last week, American Banker reported that the provision was under Senate consideration as one of many items intended to help offset the costs of the $3.5 trillion package making its way through Congress. But a list of House "pay-fors" did not include the IRS reporting requirement.

White House accused of deliberately cutting Joe Biden audio livestream when he goes off script - US president Joe Biden was abruptly cut off in a live feed mid-sentence by the White House on Monday during a briefing on wildfires with federal and state officials.After speaking during much of the briefing – which took place during a visit to Boise in Idaho – Mr Biden said he wanted to hear more from George Geissler of the National Association of State Foresters.“Can I ask you a question?” Mr Biden asked.“Of course,” Mr Geissler answered.“One of the things that I have been working on with some others is...” the president was heard saying, before the telecast was cut off mid-sentence.A clip shared by the research arm of the Republican National Committee on Twitter showed the live-stream was ended abruptly with a “Thank you for joining” message.The incident comes at a time when some White House staffers have allegedly stopped listening to Mr Biden speak in public when he goes off script.He was interrupted last month as well at a press conference, when his audio on the White House feed was cut off as he was about to answer a reporter’s question on his decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan.The president, while making concluding remarks in honour of labour unions on 8 September, made an apparent reference to the instructions his aides give him. “I am supposed to stop and walk out of the room,” he said.Earlier in May, during a press conference on the country's coronavirus situation, he said: “I’m not supposed to be answering all these questions.”A report by Politico quoted White House officials as saying that “when Mr Biden gives public remarks, some staffers will either mute him or turn off his remarks.” His press secretary Jen Psaki, on a podcast with Democratic strategist David Axelrod, candidly admitted that Mr Biden has been asked “a lot of times” not to take questions.

US Urged to End Drone Strikes After Pentagon Says Killing 10 Afghan Civilians Was ‘Horrible Mistake’ - Following a rare Pentagon admission Friday that a remote-controlled airstrike which killed 10 Afghan civilians in the closing days of the war in Afghanistan was a “horrible mistake,” anti-war and human rights advocates asserted that “war crimes are not oopsies,” while calling on the U.S. to end drone strikes in the so-called War on Terror.On Friday, Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., the commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM),told reporters at a Pentagon press conference that the August 29 drone strike that killed 43-year-old Afghan aid worker Zamarai Ahmadi and nine of his relatives—including seven children—in the capital Kabul was carried out “in the profound belief” that an attack by militants of the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) on Kabul’s international airport was imminent.At least 182 people, including 169 Afghan civilians and 13 U.S. troops, were killed in the August 26 bombing. The South and Central Asian branch of Islamic State, known as ISIS-Khorasan, claimed responsibility for the attack.However, the “explosives” U.S. military officials claimed were being loaded into the white Toyota Corolla sedan owned by the California-based nonprofit Nutrition and Education International (NEI), where Ahmadi had worked for the past 15 years, were most likely bottles of water. “We now know that there was no connection between Mr. Ahmadi and ISIS-Khorasan, that his activities on that day were completely harmless and not at all related to the imminent threat we believed we faced, and that Mr. Ahmadi was just as innocent a victim as were the others tragically killed,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement Friday. As recently as Monday, Pentagon officials defended the errant strike, claiming it was necessary to thwart another imminent attack on U.S. troops. However, investigations by The New York Times and The Washington Post revealed that—contrary to the Pentagon’s claims—there were no explosives in the Toyota, that the men loading the vehicle were not militants, and that there were numerous other additional victims in the vicinity of the sedan destroyed by a missile fired following hours of surveillance.

The U.S. Army tells troops to get vaccinated soon or face discipline up to possible dismissal. -The U.S. military’s largest service branch has announced an extensive timeline for troops to get vaccinated against Covid-19, and what they can expect to have happen if they don’t.Army officials said Tuesday that all active-duty units are expected to be fully vaccinated by Dec. 15, and Reserve and National Guard members by June 30. Those who refuse to be vaccinated and have not been given an exemption will face suspension or even dismissal, according to the guidelines.“While soldiers who refuse the vaccine will first be counseled by their chain of command and medical providers,” the Army guidelines say, “continued failure to comply could result in administrative or nonjudicial punishment — to include relief of duties or discharge from the service.”Since the Pentagon mandated coronavirus vaccinations last month, the percentage of all military service members with at least one shot has risen to 83 percent from 76 percent, according to Defense Department data. By comparison, in the general American population only 63 percent have gotten at least one shot and 54 percent are fully vaccinated, according to a New York Times database.The possible consequences for not complying in the Army vary somewhat by role. Army commanders, command sergeants major, first sergeants and officers on track for future command assignments who refuse to be vaccinated and are not given an exemption face suspension and relief from duty. Soldiers of all ranks who are not in command positions can receive a general order of reprimand, which may be removed from their file when they are next transferred or may be placed into their permanent file, affecting future assignments and promotions. The Army is the last branch of the military to issue guidelines following the Pentagon’s announcement last month that active-duty military personnel would be required to be vaccinated.

Biden’s Speech on Covid Vaccine Mandates, Annotated - - Lambert Strether - Readers who have been with us a long time will recall that I would occasionally pull out my Magic Markers™ and color code a speech with pink for “word salad,” yellow for “neoliberal catchphrase,” and so forth (for example). I’m not going to do that this time because Biden’s style — or the style his handlers and speechwriters think suits him — is so plain there’s really nothing to color code. However, besides color, I would also add footnotes where I thought there I had questions, or where there were issues of fact. And for this speech, there are a lot of footnotes. I would also footnote a particularly deft rhetorical thrust or technique; as I said, there won’t be so many of those notes for this speech. I’ve also numbered the paragraphs (0) thus for ready reference, all 95 of them. (Impatient readers may prefer to scan for the footnotes.) Speaking politically, and not epidemiologically, an opposition that hadn’t lost its mind would already have pointed out that the current wave started when Biden and Walensky said you could take off your masks if you were vaccinated. The American people, who are not, no matter what anybody says, stupid, immediately understand that operationally this meant everybody could unmask, since there was no way to know who was vaccinated and who was not. Many did so. Meanwhile, the Democrat Outer Party was busily proclaiming “hot vax summer.” And such an opposition might well say that here we have a familiar pattern: A government eases up on Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions due to pressure from capital, and the virus comes roaring back. One can blame Delta, of course, as Biden does in paragraphs (2) and (11), but how did it make sense to meet Delta unmasked and ready to party? Still speaking politically, I don’t see why this speech shouldn’t end up doing Biden some good. First, the plain style suits him. “Let me speak to you directly to help ease some of your worries,” for example, is very good. I can’t imagine Trump saying it, and I can’t imagine a towel-snapping frat boy like Bush saying it and sounding like he meant it. As for Obama… Obama spoke in paragraphs, not declarative sentences. So, no. Second, Biden may not only be lucky in his enemies, but lucky in his timing. It now appears Biden spoke near the last peak (which the chart above shows). Never mind that Biden owns that peak; the crazed opposition isn’t reminding anyone of that, and there’s no reason for Democrats to bring it up. If — and it’s a big if — there is a sudden and inexplicable decline in cases starting in September — as there was in January 2021, and after all that holiday travel, too — then Biden may well be able to take the credit for it. Third, I think the country wants to see some action from the molasses-brained Biden administration; finally, they’re getting it. (The first polling to come out after the speech says it didn’t “move the needle” on Biden’s job performance, but I think it’s action that will, and Biden has laid the groundwork for that.) Fourth, I think there’s a deadline: Thanksgiving (family; travel). Biden needs to show he’s got the virus under control by then (for some definition of “under control”). This will be a lengthy post, since almost every one of the 95 paragraphs deserves a note. But I think a close reading (transcript) is the best way to come to grips with Biden, the man and politician, and his program, and so close this reading will be. To the speech!

Employees who don’t want the vaccine are thinking of finding jobs for companies with under 100 employees - Employees who are unhappy with President Joe Biden’s vaccine mandate are finding ways around it.Some employees are seeking different jobs where the company has under 100 employees as a way to avoid the jab. Companies are worried, that after they have followed all rules and mandates enforced by the state, that they will be penalized by losing a large number of employees who do not want the vaccine.

 More Than Half Of US States Vow To Fight Biden's Vaccine Mandate - Twenty-seven Republican governors or attorneys general have vowed to fight the latest executive order issued by President Joe Biden mandating that over 80 million private employees receive COVID vaccinations or undergo weekly testing, or their employer will be fined. The executive order directs the U.S. Department of Labor’s Office of Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) to require private businesses with more than 100 employees mandate that their workers receive both doses of the COVID-19 vaccine or undergo weekly testing. Noncompliance would result in fines of $14,000 per violation. The governors who’ve expressed opposition include those from Arizona, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Republican attorneys general from states with Democratic governors who also vowed to fight include Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron and Louisiana AG Jeff Landry. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with whom Biden has sparred over mask mandates and vaccine passports, said Florida would fight back. “When you have a president like Biden issuing unconstitutional edicts against the American people, we have a responsibility to stand up for the Constitution and to fight back, and we are doing that in the state of Florida,” he said. “This is a president who has acknowledged in the past he does not have the authority to force this on anybody, and this order would result potentially in millions of Americans losing their jobs.”

Forceful Vaccine Messages Backfire With Holdouts – How Can It Be Done Better? Lambert here: I think Biden rang the bell on this one, and now the bell can’t be unrung. Perhaps, in the fullness of time, messaging like “Stupid animals, shut up and get the jab!” will be seen as less than ideal. And of course we can always try to hold those who butchered the job accountable. Originally published at The Conversation: With the FDA approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and the continued surge of the delta variant, governments across the world have renewed their push to increase the number of vaccinated individuals by persuading the holdouts. On Sept. 9, 2021, President Joe Biden announced sweeping vaccine mandates, expressing frustration at the vaccine holdouts: “We’ve been patient, but our patience is wearing thin. And your refusal has cost all of us.”As a communication scientist who has studied the effects of media and health campaigns for the past 30 years, I worry that a fevered pitch in vaccine messaging may make the holdouts even more resistant. The direct, blunt messages to go get vaccinated that worked on three-quarters of Americans may not work for the remaining one-quarter. If anything, they might backfire.Research has shown that some health communication techniques work more effectively than others depending on the audience. It’s a lesson that not only policymakers can apply but also members of the media, industry and even parents and relatives.When it comes to embracing new ideas and practices, research has identified five categories of people: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards. With COVID-19 vaccination, it’s come down to the last two, and they are the most resistant to change. This group of unvaccinated people is substantial in number – there are nearly 80 million people in the U.S. who are vaccine eligible yet remain unvaccinated – and they are the ones who could help the U.S. achieve herd immunity. But, research suggests that they are also the ones who will take offense at forceful exhortations to go get vaccinated. Public health messaging can and does often influence people – but not always in the intended direction. Back in 1999, I testified in the U.S. Congress about how powerful anti-drug messages may be turning adolescents on to drugs rather than off of them. Likewise, the strong language of current vaccine messaging may be evoking resistance rather than compliance.

Amid conflicting science on boosters, Biden’s plan for extra shots is in flux. - Almost a month ago, President Biden announced that coronavirus booster shots would be made available to most adults in the United States this month. But a week before that plan is to begin, its details remain up in the air, with dissenting opinions coming from inside and outside the government.A series of conflicting reviews this week illustrates the fierce argument among scientists about whether booster shots are needed, and if so, for whom. In a review made public on Wednesday, regulators at the Food and Drug Administration raised caveats about third doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech. Meanwhile, astudy in The New England Journal of Medicine, also released on Wednesday, indicated that recipients of a third shot of the Pfizer vaccine in Israel were far less likely to develop severe Covid than those who had received two injections.And in The Lancet this week, an article by two of the F.D.A.’s top vaccine scientists, among others, argued that there was no credible evidence that the vaccines’ potency against severe disease declined substantially over time, undermining one of the key arguments in favor of boosters. The scientists, who were not writing on the F.D.A.’s behalf, had announced that they would leave the agency this fall, but their public opposition to the administration’s plan caught the agency’s leaders by surprise. The White House had originally planned to offer boosters to recipients of both the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Moderna vaccine, but is now planning boosters only for the Pfizer shots.

The Biden administration is negotiating to buy another 500 million Pfizer doses to donate overseas. - The Biden administration is negotiating with Pfizer to buy another 500 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine to donate overseas, which would bring the total number of planned donations to 1.15 billion doses — about a tenth of the world’s need — according to two people familiar with the plan. It was not immediately clear over what time period the donation would be. The deal is not yet final, but the talks come just as the White House announced Mr. Biden will host a global Covid summit that on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting next week. The president will use the summit to convince other nations to set aside domestic demands and instead focus on getting vaccine doses to poor countries dependent on donated shots. White House officials said that Mr. Biden’s message to other nations is that the United States cannot and should not do it alone, and that all nations should honor exiting commitments. The talks with Pfizer, which were reported without specifics earlier in The Washington Post, also come as Mr. Biden is under fire for proposing booster shots for already vaccinated Americans while citizens of poor nations have not even had their first doses. A scientific advisory committee to the Food and Drug Administration on Friday recommended booster shots for recipients of the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine who are 65 or older or are at high risk of severe Covid-19, at least six months after the second shot. The move came shortly after the panel overwhelmingly recommended against approving a Pfizer booster for people 16 and older.

Democrats suffer blow on drug pricing as 3 moderates buck party -- Democrats' signature legislation to lower drug prices was defeated in a House committee on Wednesday as three moderate Democrats voted against their party. Reps. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), Scott Peters (D-Calif.), and Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) voted against the measure to allow the secretary of Health and Human Services to negotiate lower drug prices, a long-held goal of Democrats. The vote is a striking setback for Democrats' $3.5 trillion package. Drug pricing is intended to be a key way to pay for the package. Leadership can still add a version of the provision back later in the process, but the move shows the depth of some moderate concerns. The three moderates said they worried the measure would harm innovation from drug companies and pushed a scaled-back rival measure. The pharmaceutical industry has also attacked Democratic leaders' measure, known as H.R. 3, as harming innovation. The three lawmakers had long signaled their concerns with the drug pricing measure, but actually voting it down in the House Energy and Commerce Committee is an escalation. A separate committee, the House Ways and Means Committee, did advance the drug pricing measures on Wednesday, keeping the provisions in play for later in the process. Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.) had implored the three lawmakers to vote in favor of the measure to at least keep the process going. "Vote to move forward today," he said to the moderates in his party. "Vote to continue the conversation."

 Appeals court overrules judge's order blocking Biden immigration priorities - A federal appeals court on Wednesday overturned a judge's order blocking the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) from shifting its immigration enforcement priorities, delivering a significant victory for the Biden administration. A three-judge panel for the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals unanimously ruled to stay a district court judge's injunction against DHS from enforcing a January policy memo that directed authorities to scale back the Trump-era crackdown on undocumented immigrants. The policy included an initial effort to enact a 100-day moratorium on deportations. The appeals court also refused to allow an injunction against a February memo from Immigration and Customs Enforcement establishing similar enforcement measures that encouraged officers to prioritize those with serious criminal records. “Allowing the injunction to take effect could subject immigration agents to three separate directives in the span of a few weeks,” Judge Gregg Costa wrote in the panel opinion. The panel included two Obama-era appointees and a George W. Bush appointee. The enforcement priorities at the center of the case seek to narrow the types of convictions that allow for someone to be deported, focusing on those convicted of an aggravated felony as well as those deemed a national security threat due to terrorism or espionage concerns. The challenge was brought by both Texas and Louisiana; courts have rejected similar suits brought by Florida and Arizona. The appeals court said Wednesday that the Biden administration has “‘broad discretion’ to decide who should face enforcement action in the first place.” Costa argued that the administration had shown a likelihood of success in fighting the lawsuit filed by Texas and Louisiana and that constitutional considerations also weighed in favor of allowing DHS to set its own priorities while the case played out.

Thousands of Haitian migrants wait under bridge in South Texas after mass border crossing — Thousands of Haitian migrants who have crossed the Rio Grande in recent days are sleeping outdoors under a border bridge in South Texas, creating a humanitarian emergency and a logistical challenge U.S. agents describe as unprecedented.Authorities in Del Rio say more than 10,000 migrants have arrived at the impromptu camp, and they are expecting more in the coming days. The sudden influx has presented the Biden administration with a new border emergency at a time when illegal crossings have reached a 20-year high and Department of Homeland Security officials are straining to accommodate and resettle more than 60,000 Afghan evacuees.The migrants arriving to Del Rio appear to be part of a larger wave of Haitians heading northward, many of whom arrived in Brazil and other South American nations after the 2010 earthquake. They are on the move again, embarking on a grueling, dangerous journey to the United States with smuggling organizations managing the trip, according to border authorities and refugee groups.More than 29,000 Haitians have arrived over the past 11 months, the latest Customs and Border Protection figures show, including some in mixed-nationality families with children born in Brazil, Chile or other South American nations.They have trekked through the jungles of Panama’s Darien Gap, navigated migrant camps and criminal gangs in Central America, and dodged border guards and troops along the highways of southern Mexico. Some say the economic toll of the pandemic pushed them to leave, while others see a more welcoming U.S. administration offering them a fleeting opportunity to reach the United States.

Biden Administration detains more than 200,000 immigrants along US-Mexico border last month - Despite record heat and rising coronavirus cases, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced this week that more than 208,887 migrants were detained in August along the southern border with Mexico. It was the first month since Joe Biden became president that the number of border arrests did not increase, but the decline was only 2 percent down from July’s 21-year record of 212,672 immigrants detained. President Biden had said that the increasing numbers of immigrants caught at the southern border was in keeping with seasonal patterns, but the border crossings have continued despite record temperatures and rising cases of coronavirus brought about by the Delta variant. More than 1.5 million immigrants have been detained since the start of the fiscal year. The Biden administration has continued to expel immigrants using the U.S. public health code known as Title 42. While ostensibly designed to limit the spread of the pandemic, Title 42 was invoked by the Trump administration to stop all immigration into the U.S. Nearly 1 million people were deported under the rule. Authorities now claim that Title 42 has resulted in repeat border crossings saying that last month 25 percent of detained migrants “had at least one prior encounter in the previous 12 months,” compared to an average rate of 14 percent in prior years, according to CBP. The number of migrants in detention under Title 42 has also declined, with only 44 percent of those in custody taken under that law last month. Out of 86,487 “family unit members” caught by authorities last month, only 19 percent were deported because of Title 42, while the rest were allowed to make asylum claims in the U.S. Title 42 did not apply to unaccompanied minors, who arrived in record numbers this year. In August, 18,847 teens and children crossed the border alone, a one percent drop from last month. It should also be noted that almost all single adults caught at the border are immediately deported under Title 42. In response to the influx and criticism from Republicans that the White House has been lax in enforcing immigration laws, the Biden administration has started deporting families on “expulsion flights” to southern Mexico, where they are usually loaded onto buses by Mexican police and taken back to Central America. Once home, they will return to the extreme poverty, violence, and hunger that forced them to leave in the first place. The dire situation at the southern border has forced hundreds of migrants to gather under the International Bridge between Del Rio, Texas and Ciudad Acuña in Mexico in recent days. The migrants include Haitians, Venezuelans, Cubans and Africans, who languish in makeshift camps and try to protect themselves under bushes from 97 degree Fahrenheit heat. A 40-year-old Haitian man, who identified himself to Reuters as Archalge, told the news service, “We want water, we haven’t eaten,” and that he had been there for three days. The migrants have access to 22 portable toilets but no running water. Food is bought in Mexico while the migrants have to sleep on dirt underneath floodlights, security cameras, and armed border guards.

The U.S. makes coronavirus vaccinations mandatory for new immigrants. --Beginning Oct. 1, new immigrants to the United States must be fully vaccinated against Covid-19, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services said in a news release on Tuesday.People seeking to become “lawful permanent residents” — or green card holders — have permission to live in the United States and eventually seek citizenship. Applicants for permanent residency must undergo a medical examination.The Covid vaccine joins a list of others that applicants must have, including inoculations against measles, mumps, rubella, polio, and hepatitis A and B, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Some people may be exempt from the new rules, including those who are too young to be vaccinated and those who have medical conditions that make the shots dangerous for them.About 54 percent of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated against Covid-19, and some people have begun to get booster shots.The new requirement for those seeking permanent U.S. residency is in line with President Biden’s new vaccine mandates for federal workers and contractors. The Pentagon has announced that active-duty military personnel also must be vaccinated. Mr. Biden has rolled back several Trump-era immigration rules, including a ban on legal immigration that Donald J. Trump implemented at the beginning of the pandemic.

Vaccination problems may vex the U.N. General Assembly gathering. -The United Nations is facing a potentially disruptive wrinkle over New York City’s Covid vaccination requirements that could derail attendance by at least some participants in the annual General Assembly gathering, just as many world leaders are about to arrive.While the 193-member organization requires that all staff members at its New York headquarters have proof of vaccination, it has been imposing less stringent rules for visiting dignitaries and diplomats, relying on an honor system for all guests to declare they are vaccinated or have tested negative for the virus.But New York City municipal officials said this week that the General Assembly meeting, even though scaled down from prepandemic years, qualified as a “convention center” event and that under the city’s current health rules, all those who attend must show proof of vaccination.In a letter to the newly chosen president of this year’s General Assembly, Foreign Minister Abdulla Shadid of the Maldives, municipal officials also said that under the host city’s pandemic rules, visitors must show proof of vaccination before indoor dining, drinking or exercising within the 16-acre U.N. campus.U.N. officials have said the organization is obliged to follow the city’s health rules. It remained unclear as of Thursday exactly how many visiting diplomats and others who had planned to attend lacked vaccination proof.But word that all visitors would need to show such proof generated confusion and anger. Russia’s ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, called the rules a violation of the United Nations Charter, arguing that they were discriminatory. While President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had no prior plans to attend — and has been in isolation anyway for possible exposure to Covid from infected aides — more than 100 leaders including President Biden, President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain have planned to deliver their speeches in person.

Cutoff of federal jobless aid in the US leaves millions of workers scrambling to make ends meet An estimated 7.5 million workers in the US lost their $300-a-week federal unemployment benefits last week. That is after the federal government reduced federal unemployment benefits from $600 per week in summer 2020. Some working-class parents, like 33-year-old Amanda Rinehart of Allentown, Pennsylvania, are unable to return to work because of the need to provide care for their children who are at risk for contracting serious cases of COVID-19 if they return to packed classrooms and day care centers. She told the New York Times, “They should not cut these benefits off until there is a vaccine for all the little humans of all ages, because there are parents like me that have children that are high risk for Covid.” Her 8-year-old son has asthma and is unable to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, like all children under the age of 12 in the US. Since she has no one to take care of him while he remains at home, she left her job as a hotel assistant manager and was able to get by on about $560 per week in unemployment benefits from the federal and state governments. “I have no idea what I’m going to do once these benefits stop,” she said. The Biden administration ended four US federal pandemic unemployment programs on September 4. The same week that unemployment assistance was cut, the US Supreme Court ruled to end the federal moratorium on evictions that millions of renters relied on for stable housing during the pandemic. States began to see waves of eviction filings in the first week of the end of the moratorium, with some states seeing eviction filings well above average. The ending of these programs, which had the widespread backing of both Republican and Democratic officials, has left 11 million workers in the US desperate as they scramble to figure out how they will provide for themselves and their families. One of these unemployed workers, Ana Cepera, told NBC 6 South Florida that she was facing eviction along with her three children because of the abrupt end of federal benefits. “Right now, I’m without a job… Every day I’m like, OK, is today the day that they’re going to tell me I’m going to lose my home?” The benefits, which amounted to little more than $1,000 to $1,500 per month, served as a lifeline for millions of workers who would otherwise have been on the brink of starvation and homelessness. Yet many of these same workers found it a struggle to navigate underfunded state benefit systems to receive the benefits they were due after they lost their jobs through no fault of their own. Robin Woods of Pennsylvania, who lost her job of two decades in a layoff during the pandemic, described the struggle to stay afloat to 11 News: “It’s been a struggle from day one. I’d get a lump sum, and then I wouldn’t get it. I have had nothing but problems.” The Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) provided an additional $300 a week to workers who received at least $1 of regular state or federal unemployment benefits. The other unemployment programs ended by the Biden administration programs include Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), which provided unemployment benefits to those not traditionally eligible to receive unemployment benefits, such as gig workers and freelancers; Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC),which provided additional weeks of unemployment benefits to workers who exhausted all eligible weeks of benefits in the state’s unemployment system; and Mixed Earners Unemployment Compensation (MEUC), which gave an additional $100 a week to eligible workers who earned self-employment income along with wages earned with an employer.

The 2020 Census report highlights the costs of the pandemic and benefits of early policy safety net measures - EPI Blog by Elise Gould - This morning, the Census Bureau released its report on income, poverty, and health insurance for 2020. These data provide insights into the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on earnings and incomes as well as the vital measures put in place to reduce economic insecurity during the steep economic downturn. Median household income fell 2.9% as millions lost their jobs and poverty rose by 1.0 percentage point. The losses to income and increases in poverty would have been far worse if not for the rapid and large boosts to vital safety net programs legislated by Congress in 2020. The stimulus payments moved 11.7 million people out of poverty and unemployment insurance—expanded in 2020—lifted 5.5 million out of poverty in 2020.Overall, median earnings for full-time workers rose 6.9% largely in response to a composition shift in who was more able to retain employment (and who did not). Since a disproportionate share of workers who lost their jobs were lower paid, the remaining workers in the economy are higher paid, on average, leading to a mechanical increase in earnings. This does not reflect an increase in living standards for those working, rather it’s just a quirk of arithmetic. Because of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in March and April of 2020, the labor market lost over 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate hit 14.8% in April 2020, nearly 50% higher than the high point in the Great Recession economy. The unemployment rate came in at 8.1% for 2020 as a whole and employment at the end of the year was still about 10 million jobs down from February 2020. We also know that low-wage jobs in front-facing sectors, such as leisure and hospitality, were hit hardest. This led to significant changes in the composition of remaining jobs in the economy and a mechanical increase in average hourly wages. The number of full-time, year-round workers decreased by about 13.7 million, the largest decrease in the history of this series. Further, because of occupational segregation as well as caregiving demands, women were harder hit in the 2020 downturn and their employment has been slower to recover. These factors provide context for what we see in the data today on earnings. Median men’s earnings for full-time workers rose 5.6% between 2019 and 2020, while median women’s earnings rose 6.5%. This is likely due to the composition of who retained full-time employment as COVID-19 shuttered large swathes of the economy. Although labor market earnings are a significant portion of family income for the vast majority of U.S. households, the rise in earnings did not translate into increases in income because of the sheer numbers of workers who lost their jobs.

• Median household income fell 2.9% between 2019 and 2020, dropping to $67,521 in 2020. Similarly, non-elderly household income fell 2.6% over the year to $76,800.
• Household incomes fell between 2019 and 2020 across all racial and ethnic groups reported. Median household income fell the most for Asian household between 2019 and 2020, a loss of 4.5%. Median Black household incomes fell the least between 2019 and 2020, a drop of 0.3%. White, non-Hispanic household income fell by 2.7%, while Hispanic household income fell by 2.6% over the year.
• The racial divide between white, non-Hispanic households and Black households remains large. In 2020, Black household income is just 61.2% of white household income. These persistent racial disparities—deeply rooted in historical and ongoing social and economic injustices—contributed to greater susceptibility to the pandemic and the ensuing recession for Black and Hispanic workers and families.

Because of the devastation of the labor market at the lower end of the wage distribution, the poverty increases in 2020 were far from unexpected.

• Between 2019 and 2020, the official poverty rate rose 1.0 percentage point, an increase of 3.3 million. In 2020, 11.4% of the U.S. population, or 37.2 million people, lived below the poverty line.
• Child poverty also rose between 2019 and 2020, up 1.6 percentage points to 16.1% in 2020.

The federal government played a vital role in stemming the losses from the pandemic recession. The losses to income and increases in poverty would have been far worse if not for programs such as unemployment insurance to workers who suffered from job loss, as well as the ad hoc expansions to those programs legislated in the wake of COVID-19’s arrival.While Social Security remains the largest poverty reducer in the U.S.—reducing the number who would have been in poverty in 2020 by 26.5 million—the stimulus payments passed in response to the COVID-19 shock moved 11.7 million people out of poverty. Expanded unemployment insurance lifted 5.5 million out of poverty in 2020. The expansions of eligibility and enhanced payments in 2020 meant that unemployment insurance reduced poverty for ten times as many people that were kept out of poverty by unemployment insurance in 2019. Without government intervention, the pandemic and ensuing economic shock would have translated into even more widespread devastation and large-scale losses of incomes and a spike in poverty.

Pandemic-related economic insecurity among Black and Hispanic households would have been worse without a swift policy response --EPI Blog --The Census Bureau report on income, poverty, and health insurance coverage in 2020 reveals an expected shock to median household income relative to 2019 resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and recession. Across all racial and ethnic groups, median household income either declined or was statistically unchanged from the previous year.While Census cautions that the 2020 income estimates may be overstated due to a decline in response ratesfor the survey administered in March of this year, real median income declined 4.5% among Asian households (from $99,400 to $94,903), 2.6% among Hispanic households (from $56,814 to $55,321), 2.7% among non-Hispanic white households (from $77,007 to $74,912), and was statistically unchanged for Black households (from $46,648 to $46,600) as seen in Figure A.In 2019, Black American households finally surpassed the median income peak they achieved prior to the Great Recession of 2008-2009. In 2020, however, the pandemic recession cut that long recovery short.In 2020, the median Black household earned just 61 cents for every dollar of income the median white household earned (unchanged from 2019), while the median Hispanic household earned 74 cents (unchanged from 2019). Figure A The impact of the pandemic is most clearly reflected in the historic single-year decline in full-time, year-round employment. The number of full-time, year-round workers fell by about 13.7 million between 2019 and 2020, and the losses were largely borne by lower earners. Due to systemic and structural inequalities in the labor market, those lower earners are more likely to be women and men of color. As shown in Figure B, the number of full-time, year-round earners declined 17.4% among Hispanic women and 16.3% among Hispanic men between 2019 and 2020. The corresponding changes for Black women and men were 13.1% and 13.0%, respectively. White, non-Hispanic women and men saw declines of 9.9% and 9.2%, respectively.The pandemic’s biggest effect on equity during 2020 stems from disproportionate shares of women—and Black and Hispanic women in particular—losing full-time, year-round work. This disproportionate burden was largely felt because these workers are more likely to work in face-to-face service jobs (retail and leisure/hospitality) that were devastated by the necessary social distancing response to the pandemic.

Black and brown workers saw the weakest wage gains over a 40-year period in which employers failed to increase wages with productivity --EPI Blog - Key takeaways:

• Wage growth for typical Black and Hispanic workers fell far short of growth for white workers over the past 40 years.
• Increasing income inequality overall and racial discrimination in the labor market both play a role in limiting wage gains for Black and Hispanic workers.
• Women’s median wages have increased since 1979 but still lag those of men. Gains among women have not been equally shared, with white women seeing the largest wage increases.

Policy recommendations:

• Create “high-pressure” labor markets by running the economy hot through expansionary macroeconomic policies; prioritizing low unemployment will help spur job growth as well as wage growth, especially for Black workers.
• Prioritize anti-discrimination enforcement.
• Pass the Raise the Wage Act and the Richard L. Trumka PRO Act. These would have a range of positive benefits for workers across the board, and especially for women, Black, and Hispanic workers.

Increasing income inequality has been at the forefront of economic policy conversations in the United States since at least the 2008 financial crisis. The roots of that inequality stretch back much further, though. Growing employer opposition to unions and the shift from manufacturing toward finance as a major growth industry over many decades has resulted in a separation between worker pay and productivity that has persisted to this day.There has been growing concern about the wage stagnation faced by the typical American worker, and increasing attention paid to the need to rectify this—to ensure that workers reap the gains associated with their increased productivity.

Senate Democrats unveil compromise bill on voting rights — A group of eight Senate Democrats introduced new voting rights legislation Tuesday after reaching a compromise with moderate Sen. Joe Manchin on the bill, which focuses on expanding voter access, boosting election integrity and encouraging civil participation.The bill, dubbed the "Freedom to Vote Act," contains a long list of provisions that includes making Election Day a public holiday, requiring same-day registration at all polling locations by 2024, and ensuring at least 15 days of early voting for federal elections.House Democrats have previously passed two other voting bills, the For the People Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act along party lines, but the legislation did not advance in the Senate.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Monday on the Senate floor that he intends to hold a vote to proceed to the compromise measure as early as next week, which would require 60 senators to support advancing to the bill. It's unclear whether Democrats can garner the support of 10 Republicans, though Schumer said that Manchin has been discussing the bill with GOP senators."This is a good proposal, and I encourage all my Senate colleagues to support it," Schumer said, adding that "time is of the essence."Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., said Monday evening on MSNBC that the bill "will have the support of every Democrat and Joe [Manchin] will be working to solicit the support of Republicans.”Manchin said Tuesday that the legislation is a “step in the right direction” toward protecting every American’s right to vote.“As elected officials, we also have an obligation to restore peoples' faith in our Democracy, and I believe that the commonsense provisions in this bill — like flexible voter ID requirements — will do just that,” he said.

Biles, other star gymnasts to testify Wednesday at Nassar Senate hearing - Current and former Team USA gymnasts, including Simone Biles, are set to testify on Wednesday in the Senate’s hearing on the FBI’s investigation of former team trainer Larry Nassar, who was sentenced to prison in 2018 in connection with years of sexual abuse involving the program. The Senate Judiciary Committee shared on Monday that Biles and her former teammates McKayla Maroney, Aly Raisman and Maggie Nichols will testify in the full committee meeting. Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz and FBI Director Christopher Wray will also testify. The Senate Judiciary Committee announced it was holding a hearing earlier this month over what it said was the FBI’s “dereliction of duty” in its handling of the investigation into Nassar. The hearing had initially been scheduled earlier following the release by the Justice Department's Office of the Inspector General of a report that found that FBI officials failed to quickly address accusations against Nassar. That report found that the FBI and local authorities did not bring a case for more than a year, which may have allowed the abuse of gymnasts to continue.

London court says it will ensure that Prince Andrew is served with lawsuit - London's High Court on Wednesday said it would work to ensure that Prince Andrew, the Duke of York, is served with the lawsuit against him by an alleged Jeffrey Epstein victim who has accused the prince of abusing her when she was a minor. Last week, lawyers for Virginia Roberts Giuffre said they had attempted to serve Andrew with the lawsuit filed against him by leaving it with security near his home. However, lawyers for Andrew argued that the suit had not been properly served. A spokesperson for the High Court said that the way for suits across different jurisdictions to be served must be determined by the Hague Service Convention, Reuters reported. The convention requires that requests be approved by the relevant authorities in the respective country. "The lawyers acting for Ms Giuffre have now provided further information to the High Court, and the High Court has accepted the request for service under the Hague Service Convention," a court spokesperson told Reuters in a statement. "The legal process has not yet been served but the High Court will now take steps to serve under the Convention unless service is arranged by agreement between the parties," they added. In August, Giuffre filed a lawsuit in New York against Andrew, Queen Elizabeth's second-oldest son, alleging that he sexually abused her when she was a minor. "I am holding Prince Andrew accountable for what he did to me. The powerful and the rich are not exempt from being held responsible for their actions," Giuffre said at the time. "I hope that other victims will see that it is possible not to live in silence and fear, but one can reclaim her life by speaking out and demanding justice." Andrew, who long had an association with the convicted sex offender Epstein, has continually denied having ever met Giuffre, despite a well-known photograph showing the prince with his arm around her when she was still a minor. He has suggested that the photo was manipulated in an interview. Andrew Brettler, an attorney for the prince, has called Giuffre's claims “baseless, non-viable and potentially unlawful." Prince Andrew's legal team declined to comment when reached by The Hill.

Poll: 68 percent consider it a big problem that the U.S. military left behind billions of dollars of military hardware in Afghanistan - A majority of voters consider it a big problem that the U.S. military left behind billions of dollars of military hardware in Afghanistan, a new Hill-HarrisX poll finds. Sixty-eight percent of registered voters said they consider the left-behind military hardware a big problem, while 20 percent of voters said it's a small problem and 12 percent said it's not a problem at all. There was a significant variation in responses depending on party affiliation, with Republicans being more likely to call it a big problem and Democrats more likely to say it's no problem at all. Eighty-nine percent of Republicans said it's a big problem that military hardware was left in Afghanistan, while 8 percent said it's a small problem and 3 percent said it's not a problem. Among independents, 65 percent said they consider it a big problem, while 21 percent said it is a small problem and 14 percent said it's not a problem. And Half of Democratic voters said it's a big problem, while 30 percent said it's a small problem and 19 percent said it's not a problem. As the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, billions of dollars worth of U.S. weapons were left in the hands of the Taliban following the collapse of Afghan security forces. The most recent Hill-HarrisX poll was conducted online among 925 registered voters. It has a margin of error of 3.22 percentage points.

China's nuclear build-up: The great distraction -- President Biden is reviewing America’s nuclear posture. By January, we should know what he thinks about U.S. nuclear weapons, what policies should govern them and how many we need. Congress is watching closely, and the Senate and House of Representatives are sure to debate the results; they always do. But this year will be different. A new player has entered the field — China. China is modernizing its nuclear forces. The recent discovery of three intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silo fields in remote regions west and north of Beijing point to a big build-up of weapons and a different strategy for their use. Since acquiring nuclear weapons from the Soviets, the Chinese have taken the stance that they would not build up a large and highly alert force but instead would be ready to retaliate. This “second strike deterrence posture” has served them well, but now the Chinese seem to have decided it is not enough. Which is why it is urgent that the Biden administration (and the Kremlin) get them to the table to ask them. Chinese nuclear force posture and strategy should be an equal concern in Washington and Moscow. We can ask the Chinese separately, or together, but ask them we should. All three countries might even agree to take some early steps, such as exchanging deployment plans and information about nuclear doctrine. Such confidence-building measures would build mutual predictability and may stave off a nuclear arms race. Most importantly, we must not panic. Even if the Chinese deploy intercontinental ballistic missiles in each of their new silos, the U.S. will still have a large and capable nuclear force structure and many more nuclear warheads. Some authorities have predicted that the Chinese may be able to quadruple their warhead numbers in coming years. If one goes by the Stockholm Peace Research estimate of 350 Chinese warheads, then China would end up with 1,400 total warheads. That compares with over 4,000 warheads available for deployment in both the United States and Russia. We need to keep a sharp eye on what they are doing but not rush into making rash changes in our own nuclear forces. China may be a rising nuclear power, but its bigger agenda is building up its science and technology prowess. And this is where we need to focus as a competitor. We should ask ourselves: What is in the long-term U.S. national security interest? Where can we best spend our national treasure to ensure our future defense? Our defense budget funds are finite; we have to balance how best to spend them.M

Pentagon spending on defense contractors hurt US in post-9/11 conflicts: study --The Pentagon spent more than $14 trillion since the start of the Afghanistan War, with up to half of that going to for-profit military contractors, according to a new study released Monday. The report, released by Brown University's Costs of War Project and the Center for International Policy, highlights how the large reliance on private companies to tackle wartime tasks led to mission failures in American’s longest-ever conflict.“Corporations large and small have been, by far, the largest beneficiaries of the post-9/11 surge in military spending,” the report states. While some of these corporations earned profits widely considered legitimate, other wins “were the consequence of questionable or corrupt business practices that amount to waste, fraud, abuse, price-gouging or profiteering.” Privatizing key functions such as shepherding fuel convoys or training and equipping Afghan security forces “can reduce the U.S. military’s control of activities that occur in war zones while increasing risks of waste, fraud and abuse,” the report states. “Additionally, that the waging of war is a source of profits can contradict the goal of having the U.S. lead with diplomacy in seeking to resolve conflicts. More broadly, the outsized influence of defense contractors has resulted in a growing militarization of American.” Despite the huge sums of money the United States pumped into Afghanistan over 20 years, Afghan security forces quickly collapsed to the Taliban last month in the final days of the U.S. military withdrawal from the country. President Biden blamed the Afghans for the quick collapse, asserting they did not have the “will to fight.” But the new report highlights the role private contractors played in the conflict and its outcome, specifically how the U.S. military's reliance on contractors likely increased problems for Afghan security forces and made it more difficult for them to hold back the Taliban. Up to one-third of all Pentagon contracts after 9/11 went to just five weapons suppliers: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, General Dynamics, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman. Overnight Defense & National Security — Congress begins

The Human and Budgetary Costs of the War on Terror - With the 20th anniversary of September 11th, 2001 now behind us, let's take a look at the cost of the twenty year-long War on Terror as calculated by the Watson Institute at Brown University.

• 1.) Human Costs of the War on Terror: Here is a table showing the human costs directly related to the war in the five main theatres: The Watson Institute notes that several times more people have been killed in the nations listed in the table thanks to unintended consequences like the destruction of infrastructure (i.e. hospitals, water and sewage) which have led to increases in deadly diseases which cannot be treated.
• 2.) The Budgetary Costs of the War on Terror: Here is a graphic which breaks down the post-September 11, 2001 costs of the War on Terror from fiscal 2002 to fiscal 2022: Here is a table showing the same information for those of my readers that would prefer data in table form: Note that federal spending on future medical care for veterans of the post-September 11, 2001 wars is estimated at roughly $2.2 trillion.This cost data does not include all of the funding that was provided for humanitarian assistance and economic development aid in both Afghanistan and Iraq. It also does not include the future costs of interest payments on the funds borrowed to pay for the War on Terror after fiscal year 2023 since the war was funded by taking on additional federal debt, not by selling war bonds as was the case during World War II. It is also important to note that the cost data does not include the funding by U.S. allies in the war including Australia, Canada, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and France among others. Had allies not borne part of the cost of the war, the financial costs of the War on Terror would be far higher for American taxpayers.If we look at the United States Department of Defense Base Budget and the Emergency Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) Appropriations, this is what we find: The DoD's base budget has continued to rise for four reasons that are directly and indirectly related to the War on Terror:
  • 1.) the U.S. military has devoted an increasingly large share of its military spending on contractors with the use of contractors with the cost of contractors having more than doubled during the War on Terror.
  • 2.) the modernization of the U.S. military and replacement of equipment that was destroyed, damaged or used during the wars requiring replacement or repairs, sometimes with more expensive equipment.
  • 3.) increased cost of personnel costs over the two decades of the War on Terror thanks to increases in cash payments, allowances for food and housing which grew by 20 percent between 2002 and 2018. As well, the use of bonuses for recruitment and retention increased as enlistment rates were negatively effected as casualties rose in Afghanistan and Iraq. In addition, total Defense Health Program spending rose significantly as shown here:
  • 4.) the dividing line between direct DoD and OCO direct war spending at the base budget became "fuzzy" with OCO money being used to supplement the base budget and with some activities in major war zones being classified as enduring requirements and were then institutionalized into the base budget.

As you can see from this data, over the past twenty years, the human and monetary costs of the War on Terror have been punitive, both for the citizens of the nations where the U.S. was militarily active and for American taxpayers who will be paying for this war through taxation for the foreseeable future.

FBI declassified document confirms links between Saudi Arabia and the 9/11 terrorists - Under an executive order from President Joe Biden, the FBI declassified an FBI report on Saturday—the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks—showing that there were links between former representatives of the Saudi Arabian government and the hijackers. Although the 16-page report, dated April 4, 2016, is redacted, it contains important details about an investigation by the FBI into the support given by a Saudi consular official and a suspected Saudi intelligence agent in Los Angeles to at least two of the men who hijacked commercial airliners on September 11, 2001. Entitled, “ENCORE Investigation Update, Review and Analysis: Interview [Redacted] (NOV 2015),” the FBI report reviews connections and witness testimony regarding the activity of the suspected intelligence agent Omar al-Bayoumi and says that he was deeply involved in providing “travel assistance, lodging and financing” to help the two hijackers, Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdhar. The report says that what had been previously portrayed in the official 9/11 Commission Report of 2004 as a “chance meeting” between al-Bayoumi and the two future hijackers was in fact a preplanned and well-orchestrated rendezvous at a restaurant. Purportedly attending San Diego State University as part of a work-study program paid for by a contractor with the Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation, al-Bayoumi was characterized by the 9/11 Commission report “to be an unlikely candidate for clandestine involvement with Islamic extremists.” The document from Operation Encore, the codename of the FBI investigation, also says that Saudi diplomat and Islamic Affairs official Fahad al-Thumairy had “tasked” an associate to help al-Hazmi and al-Mihdhar when they arrived in Los Angeles and told the associate that the men were “two very significant people.” Al-Hazmi and Al-Mihdhar were two of the five terrorists who hijacked American Airlines Flight 77 from Washington Dulles International Airport to Los Angeles International Airport and flew the Boeing 757 into the Pentagon, killing all 64 aboard and another 125 people in the building. The FBI release is the first of what is expected to be several documents in response to the September 3 executive order signed by President Biden on “Declassification of Certain Documents Concerning the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001.” Biden’s order stated, “Information collected and generated in the United States Government’s investigation of the 9/11 terrorist attacks should now be disclosed, except when the strongest possible reasons counsel otherwise.” This is the first official US acknowledgement that a relationship existed between individuals connected to the government of Saudi Arabia and the attacks that occurred twenty years ago, attacks that became the basis for international war crimes against Afghanistan and Iraq, rendition to black sites, torture and indefinite detention at Guantanamo Bay as well as an assault on numerous fundamental rights contained in the US Constitution. It is significant that an FBI document based on an interview conducted nearly six years ago is now confirming what has been widely known since 2001.

9/11 Launched the First of the Unaccountable Bailouts by the Fed to Wall Street - By Pam Martens - Most Americans believe that the unprecedented Fed bailouts of Wall Street didn’t begin until December of 2007, on the cusp of Wall Street’s financial collapse in 2008. That’s wrong. The Fed’s first massive bailout of Wall Street started on 9/11.By the closing bell on September 10, 2001, the day before the attacks, the Nasdaq stock market was already in the midst of a full-scale implosion, having lost 66 percent of its market value and wiping out $4 trillion of wealth.The Wall Street mega banks were in the cross-hairs at the time of then New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer for bringing to market Initial Public Offerings of companies that the banks’ own research analysts were internally calling “crap” and “dogs” while the same banks issued buy recommendations on the “dogs” to the unknowing public. One internal email from Jack Grubman, an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney, captured the brazenness of the deception: “Most of our banking clients are going to zero and you know I wanted to downgrade them months ago but got huge pushback from banking.”The Congressional Research Service indicates that the Fed funneled “$100 billion per day” over a three-day period beginning on 9/11 to Wall Street firms. The consolidated annual reports of the Federal Reserve Banks show that the Fed’s balance sheet grew from $609.9 billion at the end of 2000 to $654.9 billion at the end of 2001 to $730.9 billion at the end of 2002 and $771.5 billion as of December 31, 2003.“The Fed held $61 billion of securities acquired under repurchase agreements on Sept. 12, vs. an average of $27 billion on the previous 10 Wednesdays and about $12 billion a year earlier. The Chicago Fed reported that an additional “$90 billion in liquidity” was added by the Fed setting up 30-day dollar swap agreements with the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.Outside of a gush of bailout money from the Fed, Wall Street loves interest rate cuts because they are a boon to their trillions of dollars in derivative contracts. On September 17, just before the stock market reopened for the first time since the 9/11 attack, the Fed announced it was cutting both the Fed Funds Rate and the Discount Rate by 50 basis points (half of one percent). Two weeks later, on October 2, the Fed slashed both the Fed Funds and Discount Rates by another 50 basis points. Stunningly, on November 6, one month later, it again cut both rates by 50 basis points, bringing the Fed Funds Rate to 2 percent and the Discount Rate to 1-1/2 percent. On December 11, both rates were cut again, but this time by just 25 basis points. The Fed Funds Rate, at 1.75 percent, was now trading at the lowest level in 40 years. According to the 2001 Annual Report of the Chicago Fed, one unnamed bank was so grateful for the largess flowing from the Fed that it sent “a thousand packages of LifeSavers candy to each of the 45 Fed offices.”

 SEC Chair Gensler Will Tiptoe Around Questions of Meaningful Reform on Wall Street at Today’s Senate Banking Hearing -- Pam Martens --The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing today titled “Oversight of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.” The SEC needs a lot of oversight because that’s the federal agency that didn’t catch Bernie Madoff for more than four decades, despite a financial expert, Harry Markopolos, sending the SEC detailed written reports (in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007 and 2008), making the case that Madoff was running a Ponzi scheme. The SEC was also asleep at the switch while Wall Street banks concocted their subprime debt bombs, then bet billions of dollars that they would fail while selling them to public pension funds as good investments. Those subprime bombs blew up in 2008, cratering the U.S. economy and leaving millions of innocent Americans jobless and homeless. More recently, the SEC was caught flat-footed when the family office hedge fund, Archegos Capital Management, blew up and the public learned for the first time that Wall Street banks have been disguising massive, highly-leveraged stock positions held by these hedge funds as belonging to the banks. The reason that the Senate Banking Committee has to closely police the SEC with these regular oversight hearings is because this Senate Banking Committee has repeatedly confirmed the outside counsel to the largest trading banks on Wall Street to serve as Wall Street’s top cop. The guy before Gensler, SEC Chairman Jay Clayton of Sullivan & Cromwell, was nominated by President Donald Trump. Clayton had legally represented 8 of the 10 largest Wall Street banks in the three years prior to the Senate Banking Committee confirming him to Chair the SEC. If the Senate Banking Committee genuinely wanted a real cop on the beat on Wall Street, it would stop confirming captured regulators.The jury is still out on Gensler, who previously spent 18 years at Goldman Sachs and served as Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under President Obama. Gensler’s initial performance as SEC Chair earned him an early black eye when he picked a 20-year Wall Street bank defender as his crime chief. That crime chief, Alex Oh of the Wall Street go-to law firm, Paul Weiss, exited the role after only six days on the job and considerable unfavorable publicity. To his credit, Gensler wentwith a career prosecutor the second time around.Gensler’s opening remarks at today’s Senate Banking Committee hearing include seven references to this phrase: “asked staff for recommendations…” If past is prologue, this will mean that Gensler will run out the clock on actually advancing any meaningful “recommendations” into concrete final rules.This is Gensler’s statement from his written opening remarks for today’s hearing on market structure:

NCUA wants credit unions to get friendlier with fintechs | Credit Union Journal - As credit unions focus more attention on digital assets and financial technology, leaders at the National Credit Union Administration are working to improve existing initiatives, as well as establish new ones, to provide education on the subjects. At the 2021 National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions congressional caucus, former chairman and current NCUA board member Rodney Hood spoke on these issues and how his agency is working to help credit unions face them. Part of that effort will be the creation of an Office of Innovation and Access to enable the NCUA to understand how fintech firms operate and to help draft effective regulations. The office will help the NCUA collaborate with fintechs and guide them through regulatory requirements.

Treasury to flag stablecoin perils as U.S. readies clampdown -- Treasury officials have identified what they believe are the most urgent risks posed by Tether and other stablecoins as they ready recommendations for stricter oversight of cryptocurrencies. Ensuring investors can reliably move money in and out of tokens is a top concern for officials crafting a policy framework set to be released in the coming weeks, according to people with knowledge of the matter who declined to be named because the work isn’t complete. They’re also worried that widespread, fire-sale runs on crypto assets could threaten financial stability and that certain stablecoins could scale up dangerously fast, the people said.Crypto faces a reckoning in Washington as U.S. regulators prepare to clamp down on the rapidly growing industry — and the Treasury’s recommendations could act as a road map for the next steps. Officials are also said to be discussing launching a formal review by the Financial Stability Oversight Council into whether stablecoins pose an economic threat, a process that could trigger even more severe oversight.

Biden urges CEOs to improve U.S. cybersecurity after attacks -President Biden urged a group of chief executive officers to help improve cybersecurity across the nation’s critical infrastructure and economy, citing a lack of trained professionals to adequately protect the U.S.“Our skilled cybersecurity workforce is not growing fast enough to keep pace,” Biden said Wednesday at a meeting with chief executives including Apple’s Tim Cook, Alphabet’s Sundar Pichai, Amazon.com’s Andy Jassy, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, and JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon. The meeting follows massive cyber and ransomware attacks over the past year on critical infrastructure, including that of Colonial Pipeline and JBS, as well as software and cloud providers such as Microsoft and SolarWinds, which have largely been perpetrated by cyber groups based in Russia and China.

Gender-Balanced Banking and FinTech: Challenging the Status Quo | American Banker (podcast 36:57) Organizations that embrace diversity and inclusion perform better than their less diverse peers. So why do women still need to fight against gender bias and inequality? CIBC’s Alison James and Temenos’ Jacqueline White have made it to the top of their professions and candidly share what it took to get there, what they would do differently, and what we can do to move the needle on diversity.

Biden poised to name CFTC picks to fill three Democratic seats - President Biden plans to nominate officials for three Democratic seats on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the nation’s main derivatives regulator. The White House will tap Rostin Behnam to lead the agency, as well as Christy Goldsmith Romero and Emory University law professor Kristin Johnson to serve as commissioners, according to a person familiar with the matter. The CFTC’s only current Republican member is Dawn Stump, following the departure last month of Brian Quintenz, leaving an open GOP seat.

 Warren says Fed must break up 'repeat offender' Wells Fargo - (Reuters) - U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren on Tuesday called on the Federal Reserve to break apart Wells Fargo & Co, arguing the latest fine against the bank shows it to be an "irredeemable repeat offender." In a letter sent to the Fed, Warren urged the central bank to revoke Wells Fargo's status as a financial holding company and order it to sell off its investment banking and nonbanking activities, citing the bank's years-long struggle to address regulatory shortcomings. "Wells Fargo is simply ungovernable," she said in the letter, the latest in her lengthy campaign against the bank, which has been penalized repeatedly by regulators for a range of issues. Warren, an unsuccessful candidate for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, serves on the Senate Banking Committee. The bank has paid over $5 billion in fines and has been placed under an unprecedented asset cap by the Fed for selling potentially millions of fake accounts to customers, among other issues, in a series of longrunning scandals https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wells-fargo-scandal-deal/ wells-fargo-to-pay-3-billion-to-u-s-admits-pressuring-workers-in-fake-accounts-scandal-idUSKBN20F2KN that led to the ousters of two separate chief executives. A spokesman for the Fed said the central bank had received the letter and planned to respond. In a statement, Wells Fargo said meeting regulatory expectations on risk management and control "remains Wells Fargo's top priority" and said "significant progress" had been made. Warren's letter comes days after Wells was fined $250 million https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/wealth/banking-regulator-fines-wells-fargo-250-mln-over-remediation-shortcomings-2021-09-09 by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which chastised the bank for failing to adequately repay customers who had been charged improper or excessive fees.

Wells Fargo pushes back on Sen. Warren's call for breakup -Wells Fargo pushed back against an effort by Sen. Elizabeth Warren to force the megabank’s breakup, saying that it has made significant progress in overhauling its operations and addressing scandals. In a letter to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that was made public Tuesday, Warren wrote that the bank is “simply ungovernable.” She asked the regulator to break off Wells Fargo’s traditional banking operations from its Wall Street activities. The $1.9 trillion-asset bank has proved to be an “irredeemable repeat offender” despite two CEO changes and numerous regulatory penalties, including an unprecedented asset cap, Warren wrote. The Massachusetts Democrat noted that she supported the asset cap when the Fed imposed it in 2018, but argued that the bank’s continued problems show the need for more aggressive action.

Senator Elizabeth Warren and Bloomberg News Need to Give It a Rest with Bashing Wells Fargo and Turn Their Attention to 5-Count Felon, JPMorgan Chase - Pam Martens -On Tuesday of this week, Bloomberg News published its umpteenth negative article on the San Francisco-headquartered bank, Wells Fargo. This time around, the article was highlighting Senator Elizabeth Warren calling for Wells Fargo to be broken up, with its federally insured bank separated from its Wall Street businesses.Bloomberg News syndicates its articles, so this story was quickly splashed all over other news outlets.And that’s the way it has been going since 2017. When Senator Warren bashes Wells Fargo, she gets lots of coverage by New York media outlets.Since March of 2018, Bloomberg News has published more than 80 negative articles on Wells Fargo with headlines like these: Wells Fargo CEO Abruptly Steps Down, Succumbing to Scandals; Wells Fargo’s CEO Disputes Claim His Bank Is Too Big to Manage; Elizabeth Warren on Wells Fargo CEO’s Departure: ‘About Damn Time’; Ex-Wells Fargo Bosses Face US$59M in Fines; Stumpf Gets Ban.Based on all of this negative media coverage, particularly at Bloomberg News, one would think that Wells Fargo is the most criminally-inclined bank in the United States. But here is where this story gets particularly curious. While Senator Warren and Bloomberg News have turned Wells Fargo into a piñata, Wells Fargo has not actually been charged with even one felony count by the U.S. Department of Justice. JPMorgan Chase, on the other hand, is the only U.S. federally-insured bank in history to be charged with five felony counts in the span of seven years, while keeping the same man, Jamie Dimon, as its Chairman and CEO. Wells Fargo’s former CEO John Stumpf has been banned from the banking industry over the fake account scandal at Wells Fargo (a sales incentive program gone wrong) while Jamie Dimon has kept both titles of Chairman and CEO while having his annual pay hiked to over $30 million a year by his crony Board of Directors. There is no question that the deferential treatment bestowed on Dimon by New York media has played a prominent role in Dimon keeping his job. That deference has particularly come from billionaire Michael Bloomberg, majority owner of Bloomberg News, who frequently acts like an advance man for Dimon. In 2016, after JPMorgan Chase had racked up three felony counts over the prior two years, Mike Bloomberg and Dimon even co-authored an opinion piece for Bloomberg News.

Democratic bill would force Fed to defund fossil fuels -Three progressive House Democrats introduced a bill Wednesday that would force the Federal Reserve to break up banks if they do not reduce the carbon emissions they finance in line with the Paris climate accord. The bill,, called the Fossil Free Finance Act, orders the Fed to take unprecedented steps meant to steer financial support away from oil, gas, coal and companies by unraveling banks who refuse to comply. The measure also covers financing the destruction of natural forests. “For too long, the Federal Reserve has failed to acknowledge climate change as the threat that it is. As climate disasters grow in frequency and intensity, we can no longer afford to stand by while big banks and other financial institutions invest trillions in the companies fueling the climate crisis,” said Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), who introduced the bill with Democratic Reps. Ayanna Pressley (Mass.) and Rashida Tlaib (Mich.), in a statement. The bill comes amid growing pressure on President Biden to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, a Republican whose term expires in February, with a staunch liberal dedicated to using the central bank to fight climate change. Under Powell, the Fed has created and joined several committees focused on climate-related financial risks, but has refused to incorporate those concerns into regulatory requirements. Powell has also rebuked calls to push the Fed into the fight over how to stop climate change, insisting it is not appropriate for the central bank to step outside of its mandate. Progressives, however, are pushing to circumvent Powell’s concerns by making climate change a core financial regulatory responsibility for the Fed. “For too long, our federal government has looked the other way while our nation’s largest banks bankroll the dirtiest fossil fuel projects, exacerbating the climate crisis and setting us up for a massive, climate-induced economic collapse. That must change,” said Pressley, one of several House Democrats pushing Biden to ditch Powell. Under the bill, banks with more than $50 billion in assets must develop plans to reduce 50 percent of the carbon emissions they finance by 2030 and 100 percent of their financed carbon emissions by 2050; end new and expanded fossil fuel-related projects after 2022; end the financing of all fossil fuel projects after 2030; and halt thermal coal financing after 2024. Banks that fail to submit or adhere to Fed-approved emission reduction plans could face serious penalties, including being forced to divest assets and losing their deposit insurance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Such penalties are rarely imposed, and only in serious cases of fraud, mismanagement or other dangerous or illegal conduct. “Over the last five years, financial institutions under the Federal Reserve’s supervision provided trillions in direct fossil fuel financing—and each new project brings us closer to the brink. The Federal Reserve’s role is not to surrender our planet to corporate polluters and shepherd our financial system to its destruction. The Federal Reserve’s role is to act.” Tlaib said in a statement.

GreenSky deal accelerates Goldman's consumer banking ambitions - Goldman Sachs’s deal to buy the point-of-sale loan provider GreenSky fits neatly into a two-pronged strategy the New York bank has been pursuing this year.On one side, the deal would expand Goldman's direct-to-consumer banking business, which the company had been steadily building since launching its consumer banking arm, Marcus, in 2016. On the other, it would allow Goldman to offer banking-as-a-service or embedded finance to more companies, in this case GreenSky's network of 10,000 merchants.GreenSky was built as an intermediary between merchants — typically home-improvement contractors or health care providers — and lenders. The merchants offer point-of-sale loans to consumers that the banks quietly fund. The lenders, which pay loan servicing fees to GreenSky, acquire consumer loans without having to develop customer relationships themselves.

Proposed SBA expansion into direct lending irks banks, credit unions -Banks and credit unions oppose federal proposals to let the Small Business Administration make some 7(a) loans directly in addition to its traditional role of guaranteeing credits extended by private lenders.The Biden administration’s $3.5 trillion spending package would give the SBA nearly $4.5 billion to make 7(a) loans of $150,000 or less directly to borrowers. The cap for direct loans to manufacturers would be $1 million.Legislation approved by the House Small Business Committee last week included an option for the SBA to originate small 7(a) loans “through partnerships with third parties” — which presumably could include some banks and credit unions. At the same time, the bill would authorize SBA “to originate and disburse direct loans.”

Community banks are getting too little credit for PPP loans | American Banker (OpEd) Never have community banks rallied to do so much for their communities in as short a period as was the case during the pandemic with their Paycheck Protection Program lending and loan modifications. Unfortunately, far too many community banks are not getting their deserved credit from regulators, Congress and community groups.Rather, many of them are being criticized for taking PPP fees,disproportionate lending to larger firms and failing to lend enough to minority businesses. Other community banks are spending time with Small Business Administration audits and government agencies investigating PPP fraud, with one study estimating that 15% of all PPP lending involved fraud.Big banks have the compliance and legal staff, including many revolving-door regulators, to deal with these issues. Community banks, however, are struggling with an increased andcostly regulatory burden as well as record-low net interest margins.

FDIC creates investment fund to support minority banks, CDFIs - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is spearheading an effort to match private investors with minority-owned banks and community development financial institutions that need capital.The agency on Thursday announced the launch of the Mission-Driven Bank Fund. Truist Financial and Microsoft will lead the new fund as anchor investors, and a contribution from Discovery Inc. pushed the initial funding to $120 million. The FDIC expects additional commitments.The 280 certified minority depository institutions and CDFIs will be eligible to seek investments, pitching their ideas to fund managers on how they would use the funds, the FDIC said.

Death to Farm Credit from Those on High - In 1916 when the Farm Credit System was established there were 6 million farms that employed around 30% of the US population. They each averaged 140 acres or so of land, had minimal automation investment, were manually laborious, and only included an adjustment for inflation amount of equipment investment of $6,000 per farm. This was usually collection materials like baskets, and maybe a truck, ox, cart, plow, etc Both the Midwest Cooperative and the Farm Credit System have become wildly popular and even more so with young, beginning, or small farmers as evidenced by the sheer size of the amount of loans being originated: Fast forward to today and the number of farms has shrunk to 2 million, the average farmer age is close to retirement, and the total employed on farm population is less than 1% of US population. Factor in that consolidation has forced the modern farmer to now take on an average of 434 acres per farm and also incur a debt of $115,000 on average per farm in equipment. You are talking about a considerable amount of debt per farmer to grow what is essentially the necessary capacity to feed almost 400 million people in this country. Big banks see profits in all niche programs. They search far and wide to get into how they can expand their platforms and provide increased profits to their shareholders. These are not just institutional commercial banks either, as indicated by this chart:The commercial banks see the farmers as a commodity; a big business with high net revenues having big balance sheets. What they don’t understand is that gross revenue gets eaten up by the cost of goods almost every year. The assets they sit on are tangible, yet also are tied to the direct revenue production. There are more bad years than good. The borrowers are not small time guys like me who need a few grand here or there to make ends meet when we go $1,000 in the hole for seed, and 3x of that for compost. No, there are outfits of all size, including producers who sell to Sanderson, Tyson, and many, many other processors. Credit has constrained all credit systems to be less willing to lend, and has given opportunity to outside parties to profiteer. This has caused the equipment manufacturers to offer their own credit on the equipment they sell through dealerships and to lay out the red carpet to folks like me.There are two major players: John Deere, and Agco. John Deere is synonymous with Americana, Agco, less so. Agco is a large parent company who has been gobbling up assets such as Massey-Ferguson, New Holland, Fendt, etc. The equipment manufacturers are now eating away at the biggest lifeline farmers have.

Early payment defaults drop below pre-pandemic levels - A key indicator of loan buyback risk has fallen back below pre-pandemic levels, according to Aces Quality Management’s most recent quarterly report. Early payment defaults during the second quarter were at 86.5% of their year-end 2019 levels, down significantly from 126.7% in the first quarter of this year. AQM currently measures EPDs using the fourth quarter of 2019 as a benchmark. In another good sign for lenders concerned about repurchase risk, the report found that critical defects also inched a little closer to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter, falling to 2.01% from 2.09% at the end of 2020. AQM reports all data except EPDs with a six-month lag.

Item No. 1 on CFPB's packed agenda: Get a director - A packed regulatory agenda awaits Rohit Chopra — the Biden administration's choice to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — on everything from supervising fintech lenders to assessing mortgage servicers' pandemic response.The only problem: It's still anyone's guess when he will get the job.Chopra is still in a holding pattern eight months after being tapped by the White House to run the agency. Analysts attribute the delay primarily to jockeying at the Federal Trade Commission, on which he currently sits, and legislative timing with the Senate negotiating the infrastructure and reconciliation bills.

Financially Troubled Michigan Farm Raided by IRS Agents Last Week -- The IRS executed a federal search warrant at Zeeland, Michigan-based Boersen Farms on June 9 in connection with an investigation of the troubled farm, Detroit-based IRS Special Agent Henry Pletscher confirmed to DTN on Monday.Charges have not been filed against Boersen Farms as of Monday morning. The IRS typically executes search warrants in connection to alleged financial crimes that can include tax evasion. Pletscher did not disclose the reason for the raid.Boersen attorney Ronald J. VanderVeen told DTN, "Nicholas Boersen and Stacy Boersen believe that they have complied with all legal requirements and have committed no financial fraud on anyone."Stacy Boersen is the wife of Boersen Farms' owner Dennis Boersen. Nicholas Boersen is the couple's son who is listed as the agent for one of two other limited liability corporation farms owned by the Boersen family, New Heights Farm one and two. Stacy Boersen is listed as the agent for one of those farms.Boersen Farms has for years faced a number of lawsuits from companies that provided products and services to the farm that once operated about 83,000 acres. Those lawsuits were filed in an attempt to force Boersen Farms to pay money owed to the companies.One creditor of Boersen Farms, Helena Agri-Enterprises, obtained a nearly $15 million judgment against the Boersen's New Heights Farm entities and Nicholas and Stacy Boersen.

Treasury, FHFA suspend Trump-era restrictions on Fannie and Freddie — The Treasury Department and Federal Housing Finance Agency have agreed to suspend certain unpopular changes former Trump officials made in January to the government’s oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac while the Biden administration reviews the revisions.Those changes agreed to in the waning days of the Trump administration and promulgated by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and former FHFA Director Mark Calabria allowed the government-sponsored enterprises to hold significantly more capital, but also baked in several restrictions to the GSEs’ activity that drew ire from lenders and community groups alike. “This suspension will provide FHFA time to review the extent to which these requirements are redundant or inconsistent with existing FHFA standards, policies and directives that mandate sustainable lending standards," acting FHFA director Sandra Thompson said in a statement.

FHFA proposes modification of capital rules for Fannie and Freddie — The Federal Housing Finance Agency is proposing to revise the post-conservatorship capital framework for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that was finalized under the Trump administration in order to encourage the transfer of risk to private investors and make the leverage requirements more dynamic. In a proposal issued Wednesday, acting FHFA Director Sandra Thompson said the refinements the agency is looking to implement would enable the government-sponsored enterprises “to support the housing market throughout the economic cycle in a safe and sound manner.” In particular, the agency is looking to provide Fannie and Freddie with more of an incentive to engage in credit-risk transfer, a practice that enables the GSEs to sell a piece of loans they guarantee to private investors. The deals have been a hallmark of the federal conservatorship of the two companies because they mitigate potential losses.

Waters urges Biden to nominate FHFA's Thompson as agency's director — House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters is calling on President Biden to name acting Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Sandra Thompson as the agency’s permanent leader, calling Thompson “uniquely qualified” to lead the agency. The Democrat from California released a statement late Thursday night outlining Thompson’s accomplishments as acting FHFA director in the three months she has served in the role.Waters’ input could complicate the administration's process for selecting a chief for the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Her statement came amid rumors that Biden is considering nominating Mike Calhoun, the president of the Center for Responsible Lending.

Chicago to unveil bank-loan data in bid to boost homeownership -The Chicago City Council approved a measure on Tuesday to boost transparency around the lending practices of the city’s banks and help address homeownership disparities in the nation’s third most-populous city.The “Lending Equity Ordinance” will publicly share lending data and require an annual hearing on the information with the committee on finance, Alderman Harry Osterman, a chief sponsor, said on Twitter. The measure also collects data on home equity loans and reasons for denial of loans by the banks serving as municipal depositories for the city. Such banks held about $725.3 million of the city’s cash and certificates of deposit as of Dec. 31, according to Chicago’s annual comprehensive financial report.“Transparency is needed to inform Chicagoans about the institutions where their public funds are being deposited,” according to the ordinance.

Biden nominates HUD official to be Ginnie Mae president  — President Biden has nominated Alanna McCargo, a senior advisor at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, to be president of Ginnie Mae.The quasi-insurance agency has lacked a permanent leader for more than four years. Ginnie provides backing to investors in mortgage-backed securities, ensuring that borrowers of government-backed home loans are able to capture lower interest rates. Despite the agency’s importance to the housing market, McCargo would be the first Senate-confirmed president at the agency since January 2017.

Ginnie Mae extends leeway on mortgage delinquency measure | Ginnie Mae has extended relief aimed at addressing the impact of forbearance on mortgage companies’ ability to meet typical delinquency thresholds for the third time, pushing the deadline further into next year.The insurer of securitizations backed by certain types of government loans is giving issuers an additional six months of leeway for mortgages made on or after April 2020 to account for temporary payment suspensions offered to borrowers with pandemic-related hardships.The move suggests Ginnie doesn’t expect to see loan performance return to normal levels until next summer. A wave of forbearance expirations is nigh, but some officials have called for the extension of some deadlines associated with pandemic-related payment relief.

Serious delinquencies improve for nonprime mortgage borrowers - Numbers for late-stage delinquency cure rates in the securitized nonprime mortgage market improved notably in the second quarter, suggesting recovery rates are strong even for nontraditional borrowers. The aggregate 90-plus day delinquency rate for securitizations held in bank servicers’ portfolios dropped to 10% from 13% a year ago and from 12% the previous quarter, according to a Fitch Ratings report published Tuesday. The equivalent nonbank delinquency rate for private nonprime securitizations in this category fell to 4% from 8% in a year earlier, and from 6% in the first quarter. The 2 percentage-point declines compared to the first quarter in both categories were the most notable seen in the past 12 months. Since the second quarter of last year, consecutive-quarter declines have been no larger than 1 percentage point.The numbers may indicate that those facing some of the highest hurdles within the large pool of borrowers with long-term forborne payments may have been motivated by economic improvement and individual recovery to exit before many expirations were due to occur in the third quarter.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.08%" Note: This is as of September 5th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.08%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 15 basis points from 3.23% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.08% as of September 5, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.5 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 11 basis points to 1.52%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 24 basis points to 3.39%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 25 basis points to 7.27%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 16 basis points to 3.33%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 18 basis points to 3.15%.“The share of loans in forbearance decreased by 15 basis points last week, as forbearance exits jumped to their fastest pace since March. The fast pace of exits outweighed the slight increase in new forbearance requests and re-entries,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Servicer call volume jumped last week as summer came to an end and many borrowers reached the end of their forbearance terms. We anticipate a similarly fast pace of exits in the weeks ahead, which should lead to increased call volume and a further decline in the forbearance share.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week: from 0.04% to 0.05%."

 Forbearance exits jump to a high not seen since March -Forbearance exits jumped to a high not seen since March, outweighing a slight increase in new requests and re-entries, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest weekly report.As a percentage of servicers’ portfolio volume, exits increased by 15 basis points to 3.08%, new requests rose to 0.05% from 0.04% and call center activity jumped to 7.7% from 5.58% from the previous week.The numbers for the period between Aug. 30 and Sept. 5 point to a trend in which pandemic-related payment suspensions are staging increasingly steep drops on a net basis asexpiration dates approach even though the number of new borrowers requesting forbearance plans is inching up.

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased - Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of September 14th. From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearances Below 1.6M For First Time Since Start of Pandemic The number of active forbearance plans fell by 22K (-1.4%) this week, bringing the total number of U.S. homeowners in COVID-19 forbearance below 1.6M for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Matching 15,000 declines in plans among both GSE and FHA/VA loans were partially offset by an 8,000 rise in PLS/portfolio plans. Overall, forbearances are now down 156K (-8.9%) from the same time last month. As of September 14, nearly 1.6 million mortgage holders remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, representing 3% of all active mortgages, including 1.7% of GSE, 5.2% of FHA/VA and 3.8% of portfolio held and privately securitized loans. Both new forbearance plans and plan restarts rose this week, with new plan starts trending higher since mid-August. The rise in new plan starts is almost solely limited to FHA/VA loans, coinciding with the deadline for entry into forbearance for such loans expiring at the end of September. That said, unemployment benefits lapsed over the Labor Day weekend and COVID caseloads continue to rise, so it’s difficult to pinpoint the exact cause. With two weeks left in the month, we have already seen 218,000 plan exits over just the first half of September. Meanwhile, plan extensions are at their lowest since the onset of the pandemic, with only 45,000 plans extended this week. With more than 462,000 plans scheduled for review for extension/removal in September, exit volumes could be poised to rise sharply at the start of October. As many as 330,000 are set to reach their final plan expirations based on current allowable forbearance term lengths.

Cash-out refis up more than 41% in the last 3 months | With interest rates remaining low and home prices on the rise, the amount of cash-out refis has shot up 41% over the last three months, according to Black Knight.Due to the 7.6% increase month-over-month, cash-out refis drove refinances to make up a slim majority share of all originations in August, at 51%. It was the first time since February that refinances made up a majority share of mortgage originations.We've now seen cash-out activity increase for three consecutive months, and with $173,000 in equity available to the average homeowner with a mortgage and home prices still climbing, there is still room in the market for growth,” Scott Happ, Black Knight’s president of secondary marketing technologies wrote in the company’s Originations Market Monitor Report. “With equity levels at record highs and interest rates broadly expected to tick upward in coming years, cash-out lending is likely to play a much larger part in the overall refinance market."

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 10, 2021. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.... The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Purchase applications – after adjusting for the impact of Labor Day – increased over 7 percent last week to their highest level since April 2021. Compared to the same week last September, which was right in the middle of a significant upswing in home purchases, applications were down 11 percent – the smallest year-over-year decline in 14 weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Both conventional and government purchase applications increased, and the average loan size for a purchase application rose to $396,800. The very competitive purchase market continues to put upward pressure on sales prices.”Added Kan, “While the 30-year fixed rate was unchanged at just over 3 percent, it was not enough to drive more refinance activity. Refinance applications slipped to their slowest pace since early July, and the refinance share of applications fell to 65 percent, which was also the lowest since July.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) remained unchanged at 3.03 percent, with points decreasing to 0.32 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Eviction filings in US spike in week following end of moratorium - Following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling which ended the eviction moratorium, millions of renters stand the risk of losing their housing amid the new surge of the pandemic. Eviction filings have already skyrocketed for the week ending September 4, with four of six states monitored by the Princeton University’s Eviction Lab having already exceeded historic averages. The U.S. Census Bureau’s weekly Household Pulse Survey for the week ending August 26 found that 3,511,056 respondents are facing the “likelihood” of eviction in the next two months. This is taking place as the Biden administration has allowed the expiration of federal unemployment benefits for 7.5 million jobless workers, who will be left with nothing, and the $300 supplement for another three million workers still receiving meager state unemployment benefits. While data is only out for the first four days of the month, within these days dramatic increases in eviction filings have already been observed. Out of the 31 cities that the Eviction Lab tracks, 13, or roughly a third have seen an increase in evictions above and past their respective historic averages for the same period. The three largest increases seen as of September 4 were recorded in Charleston, South Carolina, at 232 percent the historical average; Wilmington, Delaware, at 238 percent; and Dallas, Texas, at 134 percent. Five saw filings increase relative to historic averages in previous months, with Delaware seeing a 130 percent rise. Before September, Delaware saw eviction filings consistently at half or less of its 2016-19 averages at virtually every point following March 2020, when the moratorium was implemented. Indiana is now 22 percent above average. It had also stayed under historical averages since March 2020. New Mexico has seen a similar increase, with evictions averaging now at 140 percent the state’s 2017-2019 averages and reaching the highest point since the Eviction Lab started tracking the state. Other states like Minnesota and Connecticut did not increase past their respective averages but saw increases nonetheless relative to previous months preceding the end of the moratorium. Rental assistance funds of $46.5 billion have been allocated, but the vast majority of the money has not been distributed. Treasury Department Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that she would begin to move funds from jurisdictions that have failed to distribute assistance by the end of September to ones that did. In other words, the Biden administration will allow poor renters in areas with unwilling local governments to be deprived of federal rental assistance.

The Rapid Increase in Rents – McBride - Over the last several months there has been a pickup in rents, especially for single family homes. Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me rent data since early this year indicating that rent growth was accelerating. And Christophe Barraud, Chief Economist, Strategist at Market Securities has summarized much of the recent data in U.S. Rents Rise Most On Record From CoreLogic: Preference for Detached Properties Pushes Single-Family Rents HigherU.S. single-family rent growth increased 7.5% in June 2021, the fastest year-over-year increase since at least January 2005[1], according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI). The index measures rent changes among single-family rental homes, including condominiums, using a repeat-rent analysis to measure the same rental properties over time. The June 2021 increase was more than five times the June 2020 increase, and while the index slowed to a post-pandemic low last June, rent growth is running well above pre-pandemic levels when compared with 2019. And from Zillow: Rent Prices Soar Beyond Pre-Pandemic Projections (July 2021 Market Report) Typical U.S. rents grew 9.2% year-over-year in July, according to the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) — the fastest recorded by Zillow records in data that reaches back through 2015 — to $1,843/month. Projecting forward historical ZORI values from February 2020 — the last full month before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S. in earnest — we estimate that the U.S. ZORI in July was 2.9% ($52) higher than where it would have been if the last roughly 18 months had been more ‘normal.’ The following graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index. Any reading above 50 indicates tighter conditions from the previous quarter. This indicates market conditions tightened further in July, after being especially weak during the early months of the pandemic. What drives demand for housing is household formation. Even though population growth in 2020 was dismal (see Tom Lawler’s Lawler: Update on the Dismal Demographics of 2020; "Smallest Population increase since 1918"), household growth probably picked up in 2021. A couple of possible reasons for household growth include:

• Some younger adults probably moved in with their parents or relatives (or stayed with them) during the worst of the pandemic, and are now moving out.
• Divorces might have increased in 2021 splitting households.

Unfortunately we will not have data on household formation for some time (for example, data on divorces is only available through 2019). Some other factors might include more properties being converted into short term rentals, removing them from the long term rental housing stock, and also the eviction moratorium has probably also had an impact on rents.The preference for single family homes (and the corresponding larger rent increases) is partially due to the pandemic, and the desire for more space - especially for people working at home. And with the rapid increase in home prices, and lack of for sale inventory, some people are looking to rent single family homes instead. A key impact of rising rents will be on inflation. Owners' equivalent rent of residences (OER), and rent of primary residences make up almost 1/3 of the consumer price index (CPI). Although CPI was up 5.3% year-over-year (YoY) in July, OER was only up 2.4% YoY. And rent of primary residence was up 1.9% YoY. The recent rent increases will boost OER later this year, and this will impact the measures of inflation.

Home sales dropped for the first time in 15 months in August --August’s housing market followed the indicators that pointed toward a cooling off.After bidding wars hit a six-month low in July, home sales posted an annual decrease for the first time in 15 months, according to Redfin. Completed sales dropped 6% annually in August and 1.4% monthly. Meanwhile, pending sales grew 7% from August 2020 and 6.1% from July. The decline in total properties sold didn’t slow the rate of price growth, however. August marked the 13th straight month of double-digit annual gains, posting a 16.2% jump in median sales price to $380,300. Prices did, however, dip 1% month-over-month.

House Price to Median Income – McBride - The Census Bureau released median income data for 2020 today: Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2020: Median household income was $67,521 in 2020, a decrease of 2.9% from the 2019 median of $69,560. This is the first statistically significant decline in median household income since 2011.Between 2019 and 2020, the real median earnings of all workers decreased by 1.2%, while the real median earnings of full-time, year-round workers increased 6.9%.One of the measures I like to use to evaluate house prices is Case-Shiller House Prices to Median Income. Previously I was using a 5% increase in income for 2020, however median income declined 2.9% last year - and that means house prices compared to income were higher in 2020 than I originally thought.This graph uses the year end Case-Shiller house price index - and the nominal median household income through 2020 from the Census Bureau. 2021 median income is estimated at a 5% annual gain. By this measure, house prices are close to the bubble peak.However, as I noted in The Housing Conundrum:

• Demographics are very favorable for home buying.
• Mortgage rates are near record lows.
• Lending standards have been fairly solid.
• There hasn’t been a huge increase in equity extraction, meaning that most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes (so even if prices decline, there won't be cascading price declines).
• And housing inventory is near record lows.

So, by some measures, house prices seem high, but the recent price increases make sense from a supply and demand perspective.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 13.6% Compared to Same Week in 2019 -- Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are e asy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. The comparison to 2019 was difficult this week due to the timing of Labor Day. Last week the occupancy rate was unchanged year-over-year. If we average the last two weeks, occupancy is down about 7% compared to the same two weeks in 2019.From CoStar: STR: Labor Day, Rosh Hashanah Contribute to US Hotel Performance Declines U.S. hotel performance fell slightly from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through September 11. September 5-11, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 60.0% (-13.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $130.82 (-1.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $78.46 (-14.8%)
Despite the week-over-week dip, performance levels were solid on an absolute basis considering it was the week of Labor Day as well as Rosh Hashanah from Monday through Wednesday. Neither of those holidays were a factor in the corresponding week two years ago, thus creating steeper declines in comparison with 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). With solid leisure travel, the Summer months had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel.

Business Travel, Conventions, Office Occupancy Stuck in Collapse: Been so Long, People Forgot What Old Normal Was - Wolf Richter: Even as American leisure travelers have been out in force, for US hotels, the all-important and lucrative business travel revenues – corporate, group, government, and other commercial travel – are expected to be down by $59 billion in 2021 from 2019, according to the American Hotel and Lodging Association (AHLA) and Kalibri Labs today.For the 20 largest destinations in the US, hotel business travel revenues are expected to collapse by 80% from $38 billion in 2019 to $7.6 billion in 2021, according to AHLA data.The largest destination, the New York City metro, is expected to see an 88% collapse in annual hotel business travel revenues, from $4.6 billion in 2019 to a projected $531 million in 2021.In Orlando, the second largest destination in 2019, annual hotel business travel revenues are expected to collapse by 81%, from $2.8 billion in 2019 to a projected $518 million in 2021.The third largest destination, the Washington D.C. metro, is expected to see an 86% collapse in hotel business travel revenues, from $2.7 billion in 2019 to $371 million in 2021. These are the largest 20 destinations by business travel hotel revenues in 2019, the projected year-total revenues for 2021, and the percentage difference:This analysis follows AHLA’s survey of business travelers, released two weeks ago, which foundthat, amid rising COVID-19 cases, 67% of business travelers were planning to take fewer trips, 52% were likely to cancel existing travel plans without rescheduling, and 60% were planning to postpone existing travel plans. The fifth largest destination in the table above, San Francisco, is expected to see a 93% collapse in hotel business travel revenues, from $2.5 billion in 2019 to $178 million in 2021, according to AHLA.At the Moscone Center, San Francisco’s convention center, there was hardly anything scheduled for the rest of the year to begin with – just four events. At least one of them, the 64th Annual International Auto Show in November, has already been cancelled.This is the situation everywhere. Conference organizers are trying to get people together and put some souls into the vast convention centers, and they’re doing it, but it’s hard and slow.The reluctance among businesses about sending employees to conferences and about even holding conferences is also reflected in still dismally low office attendance.Across the US, companies had sill not returned in large numbers to the office, and official return-to-the-office dates announced by big companies – whatever format that return to the office would have taken, from 1 day a week to 5 days a week bell-to-bell – keeps getting pushed out.Office occupancy, as measured by workers actually showing up at the office, struggled to recover from dreadfully low levels, but over the past two months has relapsed. According to Kastle Systems, the 10-city average has dropped to 31% of where it had been before the pandemic, meaning it’s down 69% from the Good Times:

Restaurants Close Dining Rooms Again as Delta-Driven Infections Spread – WSJ - Restaurants’ plans to return diners to indoor tables are unraveling. Chains such as McDonald’s Corp. and Chick-fil-A Inc. are slowing their dining rooms’ reopenings, given the Delta-driven surge in Covid-19 infections. Other restaurants are again losing customers, and trying to squeeze more diners into outdoor patios while weather still allows. Laurie Torres, owner of Mallorca in downtown Cleveland, said sales at her Spanish-themed restaurant had risen earlier in the summer from pandemic lows but fell again last month as diners grew nervous. Mallorca brought back interior dividers and spaced out tables again to help customers feel comfortable inside, but Ms. Torres said she expects the fall to remain tough. Covid-19’s resurgence is creating whiplash for restaurants, which have slogged through a year and a half of pandemic-related disruptions. Sales that had steadily grown earlier in the summer have fallen in the past five weeks, data from restaurant analytics firm Black Box Intelligence showed. Bars and restaurants lost 41,500 jobs in August, the largest monthly decline of any single sector, according to Labor Department figures released earlier this month. It was the food-service industry’s first monthly decline since December.The Delta variant has reversed some of the reopening momentum seen earlier in the summer. Rising numbers of Covid-19 cases in recent weeks have led to canceled concerts, postponed trips and the return of mask mandates.Restaurants came into the summer with optimism as Covid-19 related restrictions eased, lifting sales. Now, nearly one in five Americans say they are no longer going out to restaurants, and 9% have canceled existing plans to eat out in recent weeks, according to a national survey of 1,000 adults by the National Restaurant Association last month.Drive-through and to-go sales helped fast-food chains weather last year. As infections dropped earlier this year, many chains and owners wrestled with reopening their dining rooms. Fast-food companies generally have sought to resume indoor dining when allowed, but the number of customers eating their meals inside has remained below pre-pandemic levels, data from market-research firm the NPD Group shows.Many operators have struggled to hire enough workers this year, and some have argued that it isn’t worth dedicating employees to sit-down service when indoor business remains much slower than to-go sales. Wendy’s Co. told investors last month that some of its restaurants were closing their dining rooms during parts of the day because of staffing shortages, and it supported operators’ decisions to close indoor dining if they needed to.

Fauci says he supports a vaccine mandate for air travel. - Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease doctor, said in an interview with the theSkimm that he would support a vaccine mandate for air travelers.“I would support that if you want to get on a plane and travel with other people, that you should be vaccinated,” Dr. Fauci told the site, which targets millennial women.Dr. Fauci’s support for such a mandate follows President Biden’s recent announcement that all companies with 100 or more workerswill require vaccination or weekly testing.The sweeping actions from Mr. Biden reflect his frustrations with the roughly 80 million Americans who are eligible for shots but remain unvaccinated. Mr. Biden also moved to mandate vaccinations for health care workers, federal contractors and the vast majority of federal workers, who could face disciplinary measures if they refuse.The president also said that the Transportation Security Administration would double fines on travelers who refused to wear masks.When asked on Friday if the administration was considering vaccine or testing requirements for domestic flights, Jeff Zients, Mr. Biden’s coronavirus response coordinator, told reporters that they were “not taking any measures off the table.” Some airlines, such as United Airlines and Frontier Airlines, have required that all U.S. employees get vaccinated. Delta has intensified pressures for employees to get vaccinated but has stopped short of a mandate.

Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in August --On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 0.7% from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 15.1 percent from August 2020. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $618.7 billion,an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month, and 15.1 percent above August 2020 ... The June 2021 to July 2021 percent change was revised from down 1.1 percent to down 1.8 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.8% in August. The stimulus checks boosted retail sales significantly in March and April.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 13.4% on a YoY basis. Sales in August were above expectations, however sales in June and July were revised down, combined.

August retail sales rebound slightly, argue for continued strong jobs growth in autumn - August retail sales rebound slightly, argue for continued strong jobs growth in autumn -- Let’s take a look at retail sales, which are perhaps my favorite monthly economic indicator, since they tell us so much about average consumer behavior, and are also a good short leading indicator for jobs. Nominally retail sales increased 0.7% for August, after a -0.6% downward revision to -1.7% for July. Since consumer prices rose 0.3% in August, real retail sales increased 0.4%. Although real retail sales are down -3.8% from their April peak, they are 11.5% higher than they were just before the pandemic hit: While the recent decline from April is consistent with a slowing economy ahead, if sales stabilize here I don’t see this as a harbinger of an actual downturn. As I have written many times over the past 10+ years, real retail sales YoY/2 has a good record of leading jobs YoY with a lead time of about 3 to 6 months. That’s because demand for goods and services leads for the need to hire employees to fill that demand. The exceptions have been right after the 2001 and 2008 recessions, when it took jobs longer to catch up, as shown in the graph below, which takes us up to February 2020: Now here is the same graph since just before the onset of the pandemic. Note the scale is much larger, given the huge changes wrought by the early lockdowns, and of course the comparative spikes from the data one year later: As with the recoveries immediately after the two prior recessions, up until the past several months YoY job creation has been well below YoY real retail sales growth. But for the last 3 months, jobs have caught up to forecast trend. This argues that we can expect jobs reports in the next few months to average out about even with those from one year ago, which averaged about 500,000 per month.

BLS: CPI increased 0.3% in August, Core CPI increased 0.1% --From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. The indexes for gasoline, household furnishings and operations, food, and shelter all rose in August and contributed to the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase. The energy index increased 2.0 percent, mainly due to a 2.8-percent increase in the gasoline index. The index for food rose 0.4 percent, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing 0.4 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August, its smallest increase since February 2021. Along with the indexes for household operations and shelter, the indexes for new vehicles, recreation, and medical care also rose in August. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance all declined over the month.The all items index rose 5.3 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller increase than the 5.4-percent rise for the period ending July. The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, also a smaller increase than the period ending July. CPI and core CPI were both below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Consumer Price Index: July Core at 4% --The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 5.25%, down from 5.37% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 4.00%, down from 4.27% the previous month and above the Fed's 2% PCE target. Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.The indexes for gasoline, household furnishings and operations, food, and shelter all rose in August and contributed to the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase. The energy index increased 2.0 percent, mainly due to a 2.8-percent increase in the gasoline index. The index for food rose 0.4 percent, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing 0.4 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August, its smallest increase since February 2021. Along with the indexes for household operations and shelter, the indexes for new vehicles, recreation, and medical care also rose in August. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance all declined over the month.The all items index rose 5.3 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller increase than the 5.4-percent rise for the period ending July. The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, also a smaller increase than the period ending July. The energy index rose 25.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index increased 3.7 percent; both were larger than the increases for the 12-month period ending July. Read moreInvesting.com was looking for a 0.4% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.3% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 5.3% for Headline and 4.2% for Core.The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures of Inflation in August -- The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for July here. "Car and truck rental" were down 65% annualized (reversing some of the previous increase).This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.4%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 4.0%. Core PCE is for July and increased 3.6% year-over-year.

A more “normal” consumer inflation reading for August belies damage to the economy going forward - Inflation, along with the expiration of the emergency pandemic payment, is one of the two big threats to this expansion. This morning August consumer inflation was the lowest in 6 months, up only 0.3% - within the range of a normal reading in normal times. Since wages increased 0.5% in August, this means that real wages increased. Let’s take a closer look.YoY inflation is now 5.2% (blue in the graph below), but typically inflation has not been a concern unless inflation ex-gas (red) has been in excess of 3.0%. After peaking two months ago at 4.1%, it is now 3.9%: The spike in inflation has gone on long enough at this point that I expect it to inflict some actual damage on the economy. Housing (shelter) is over 1/3 of the entire index, and reflects households’ biggest monthly expense. The good news is that on a monthly basis both inflation in shelter (blue in the graph below) and rent increases (red) were within their normal ranges in August: With the expiration of the eviction moratorium due to COVID, most observers are expecting a rapid increase in rents, which will bleed over into the general shelter index (note that the situation would be much different if price increases in housing as measured by the FHFA or Case-Shiller Indexes were employed). Further, the increase in new car prices decelerated this month, and used car prices finally hit a wall and actually decreased in August: On a YoY basis, new car prices are still up nearly 10%, while used car prices are up over 30%!: Almost certainly, price pressures in these two most important sectors of the consumer economy are now constraints going forward into 2022. There is some limited good news “upstream” in commodities and finished consumer goods, as the former (gold in the graph below) increased a more “normal” 0.7% in August. While finished producer goods increased a fairly “hot” 1.0% (red): Residential building materials for the second month in a row held almost steady: But they are still up over 30% YoY. We need this to decline, sharply, and soon. There is also some limited good news in the real wages department. Wages (more broadly, household income) failing to keep pace with inflation has been one of the tradition “real” harbingers of a recession: After several months of decreases, real hourly wages, I.e., wages deflated by consumer prices, increased slightly in August. In the longer view real wages have been more or less flat in the past year, they are down about 3% from their pandemic peak:

CPI Undershoot Illustrated - Menzie Chinn - Typical headline – “U.S. Consumer Price Growth Cools, Smallest Gain in Seven Months“, and “Treasuries Rally After CPI Seen Pushing Off Taper: Markets Wrap” or “Consumer prices climbed more slowly in August, welcome news for the Fed“. Here’re the graphical depictions of the undershoot, first in levels (updating graph from yesterday’s post). Figure 1: CPI (blue), CPI nowcasts (light blue), Bloomberg consensus CPI (light green triangle), Core CPI (red), Core CPI nowcasts (pink), Bloomberg consensus core CPI (inverted brown triangle), all 1982-84=100, on log scale. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed (as of 9/10), Bloomberg (accessed 9/12), NBER, and author’s calculations. Next, month-on-month annualized inflation (0.10 reads as 10%). Figure 2: Month-on-month annualized CPI inflation (blue), CPI nowcasts (light blue), Bloomberg consensus CPI (light green triangle), Core CPI (red), Core CPI nowcasts (pink), Bloomberg consensus core CPI (inverted brown triangle), all 1982-84=100, on log scale. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS,Cleveland Fed (as of 9/10), Bloomberg (accessed 9/12), NBER, and author’s calculations. CEA decomposes the contributions to August inflation. Vehicle related inflation made essentially no contribution, while pandemic related services deducted (in a mechanical, accounting sense). CEA also provides a time series on pandemic affected services prices. For those worried about a wage-price spiral coming through shelter costs, Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) growth remained steady, while Rent of Primary Residence rose 10 bps (monthly basis). The undershoot has implications for nowcasts of August Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator inflation. Below is the Cleveland Fed’s as of today: On an annualized basis, nowcasted PCE m/m inflation dropped from 3.75% to 3.59%, while nowcasted core PCE has dropped from 3.60% to 3.41%.Overall, the new data reinforces the view that the inflation jump is more transitory than permanent (although supply side/supply chain issues may make the rise in inflation more persistent than otherwise).

U.S. Gasoline Prices Hit 7-Year High --- U.S. gasoline prices are now the highest that they’ve been in seven years, even as the summer driving season has drawn to a close, denting demand for the fuel. U.S. gasoline demand has fallen for the fourth week in a row, but gasoline prices are climbing ever higher, spurred on by the refinery disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Ida. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), retail gasoline and diesel prices in the United States averaged $3.176 for the week ending September 6—the highest level since 2014. For comparison, the national average gasoline prices this time last year were $2.211. In 2019, the average at the close of the driving season was $2.550—even before the pandemic.And now, just as the oil and gas industry struggles to recover from Hurricane Ida, another storm—Tropical Storm Nicholas, is barreling towards the Texas Gulf Coast’s refining complex, threatening even higher gasoline prices. Nicholas is expected to make landfall late Monday or early Tuesday. But the higher gasoline prices haven’t stopped the EIA from forecasting that prices will eventually fall when refinery runs increase post-Ida. This forecast, however, was prior to Nicholas. GasBuddy has expanded its Fuel Availability Tracker to include Texas as a precautionary measure ahead of Nicholas, which is expected to bring significant flooding.According to GasBuddy, demand for gasoline has fallen for four weeks in a row, but on Sunday, U.S. gasoline demand “jumped 9.4% from the prior (holiday weekend) Sunday.”Gasoline demand was still down, however, compared to the previous four Sundays.

By the Numbers: Income and Poverty, 2020 --EPI Blog - This fact sheet provides key numbers from today’s new Census reports, Income and Poverty in the United States: 2020 and The Supplemental Poverty Measure: 2020. Each section has headline statistics from the reports for 2020, as well as comparisons with the previous year. This fact sheet also provides historical context for the 2020 recession by analyzing changes between the last business cycle peak in 2019 to 2007 (the final year of the economic expansion that preceded the Great Recession), and to 2000 (the prior economic peak). All dollar values are adjusted for inflation (2020 dollars). Because of a redesign in the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) income questions in 2013, we imputed the historical series using the ratio of the old and new method in 2013. All percentage changes from before 2013 are based on this imputed series. We do not adjust for the break in the series in 2017 due to differences in the legacy CPS ASEC processing system and the updated CPS ASEC processing system, but these differences are small and statistically insignificant in most cases.Median annual earnings for men working full time grew 5.6%, to $61,417, in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, men’s earnings rose 3.0% between 2007 and 2019, and were 3.6% higher in 2019 than they were in 2000.Median annual earnings for women working full time grew 6.5%, to $50,982, in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, women’s earnings rose 9.0% between 2007 and 2019, and were 15.7% higher in 2019 than they were in 2000.Median annual earnings for men working full time in 2020: $61,417 Median household income fell 2.9%, to $67,521 in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, median household income rose 7.3% between 2007 and 2019, and was 6.5% higher in 2019 than it was in 2000.Median non-elderly household income fell 2.6%, to $76,800, in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, median non-elderly household income rose 8.1% between 2007 and 2019, and was 4.3% higher in 2019 than it was in 2000.Median household income for white, non-Hispanic households fell 2.7%, to $74,912, in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, median household income rose 8.2% between 2007 and 2019, and was 8.2% higher in 2019 than it was in 2000.Median household income for Black households fell 0.1%, to $46,600, in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, median household income rose 6.3% between 2007 and 2019, and was 1.4% higher in 2019 than it was in 000.Median household income for Hispanic households fell 2.6%, to $55,321, in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, median household income rose 21.1% between 2007 and 2019, and was 17.3% higher in 2019 than it was in 2000. The poverty rate rose 0.9 percentage points, to 11.4%, in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, the poverty rate fell 2.0 percentage points between 2007 and 2019 and was 0.8 percentage points lower in 2019 than it was in 2000.The child poverty rate rose 1.7 percentage points, to 16.1%, in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, the child poverty rate was 3.6 percentage points lower in 2019 than it was in 2007 and was 1.8 percentage points lower in 2019 than it was in 2000.The white, non-Hispanic poverty rate rose 0.9 percentage points, to 8.2%, in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, the white, non-Hispanic poverty rate fell 0.9 percentage points between 2007 and 2019, and was 0.1 percentage points lower in 2019 than it was in 2000.The Black poverty rate rose 0.6 percentage points, to 19.3%, in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, the Black poverty rate fell 5.7 percentage points between 2007 and 2019, and was 3.8 percentage points lower in 2019 than it was in 2000.The Hispanic poverty rate rose/fell 1.3 percentage points, to 17.0%, in 2020. Prior to the 2020 recession, the Hispanic poverty rate fell 5.8 percentage points between 2007 and 2019, and was 5.8 percentage points lower in 2019 than it was in 2000.Public safety net and social insurance programs kept tens of millions of people out of poverty in 2020. The Census SPM data show that:

• Social Security kept 26.5 million people out of poverty in 2020.
• Economic Impact/stimulus kept 11.7 million people out of poverty in 2020.
• Unemployment insurance kept 5.5 million people out of poverty in 2020.
• Refundable tax credits (such as the Earned Income Tax Credit) kept 5.3 million people out of poverty in 2020.
• The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, also known as food stamps) and school lunch assistance kept 3.2 million people out of poverty in 2020.

LA Area Port Traffic: Solid Imports, Weak Exports in August - Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast. Also, incoming port traffic is backed up significantly in the LA area with around 50 ships at anchor waiting to unload.Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average. On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 0.1% in August compared to the rolling 12 months ending in July. Outbound traffic was down 1.3% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. 2021 started off incredibly strong for imports - and with the backlog of ships, will probably continue strong. Imports were up 1% YoY in August (recovered last year following the early months of the pandemic), and exports were down 14.0% YoY.

 Industrial Production Increased 0.4 Percent in August - From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in August after moving up 0.8 percent in July. Late-month shutdowns related to Hurricane Ida held down the gain in industrial production by an estimated 0.3 percentage point. Although the hurricane forced plant closures for petrochemicals, plastic resins, and petroleum refining, overall manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent. Mining production fell 0.6 percent, reflecting hurricane-induced disruptions to oil and gas extraction in the Gulf of Mexico. The output of utilities increased 3.3 percent, as unseasonably warm temperatures boosted demand for air conditioning. At 101.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in August was 5.9 percent above its year-earlier level and 0.3 percent above its pre-pandemic (February 2020) level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.2 percentage point in August to 76.4 percent, a rate that is 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and slightly above the level in February 2020. Capacity utilization at 76.4% is 3.2% below the average from 1972 to 2020. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in August to 101.6. This is 0.3% above the February 2020 level. The change in industrial production was slightly below consensus expectations.

After Ida hits, August industrial output gains slow to 0.4% (AP) — U.S. industrial production slowed to a 0.4% gain in August as shutdowns of petroleum refineries and petrochemical plants caused by Hurricane Ida curbed manufacturing activity.Plant closures long the Gulf Coast as well as lost oil production during last month’s hurricane shaved 0.3 percentage points from output, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday. Industrial output had risen a revised 0.8% in July.Industrial production covers manufacturing, utilities and mining. For just manufacturing, factory output slowed to a tiny 0.2% gain, reflecting the hurricane impact and continuing supply chain problems. Factory output had risen a much stronger 1.6% in July.Manufacturing has been hobbled this year due to snarled supply chains, particularly at auto plants where semiconductors needed for new cars have been in short supply.Economists said problems, including labor shortages due to the resurgence of COVID-19 cases at home and abroad continue to depress manufacturing activity.Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said that a rising infection rates in Asia appeared to be a key reason that Ford and General Motors were forced to announce expanded plant shutdowns in September amid a worsening semiconductor shortage.Ford, which has lost money in India for a decade, said this month that it was pulling the plug on production for good in the country. “The industrial recovery is losing steam and with the delta variant causing disruption to global supply chains and Hurricane Ida weighing on oil production, a further slowdown looks likely in September,” Hunter said.For August, output in auto plants was up a scant 0.1% after a much stronger 9.5% gain in July.Output at the nation’s utilities rose 3.3% in August due to unseasonably hot weather while output in mining was down 0.6%, reflecting a drop in crude oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico due to Ida, which hit Louisiana on Aug. 29. The nation’s factories, mines and utilities operated at 76.4% of capacity in August, up slightly from 76.2% in July. With the 0.4% gain in industrial production in August, output is 5.9% higher than it was in August 2020 and 0.3% above its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Empire State Mfg Survey: Swift Growth in September - This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 34.3 was an increase of 16 from the previous month's 18.3. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 18.The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.Here is the opening paragraph from the report. Business activity grew at a swift pace in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed sixteen points to 34.3. New orders, shipments, and unfilled orders all increased substantially. The delivery times index reached a record high. Labor market indicators pointed to strong growth in employment and the average workweek. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes were at or near record highs. Looking ahead, firms remained very optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, and capital spending and technology spending plans increased markedly. [Full report] Here is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator:

Philly Fed Mfg Index: "Current Indicators Remain Elevated" The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a generally reliable clue as to the direction of the broader Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 30.7, up 11.3 from last month's 19.4. The 3-month moving average came in at 24.0, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 20, down 13.7 from the previous month's 33.7.The 30.7 headline number came in above the 18.8 forecast at Investing.com.Here is the introduction from the survey:Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity and shipments improved, but the new orders and employment indexes softened somewhat. Both price indexes remained elevated. The survey’s future general activity and new orders indexes continued to moderate, but the surveyed firms remained generally optimistic about growth over the next six months. (Full Report)The first chart below gives us a look at this diffusion index since 2000, which shows us how it has behaved in proximity to the two 21st century recessions. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3- month moving average, which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. We can see periods of contraction in 2011, 2012, and 2015, and a shallower contraction in 2013. The contraction due to COVID-19 is clear in 2020.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 332,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending September 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 332,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 310,000 to 312,000. The 4-week moving average was 335,750, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 339,500 to 340,000. This does not include the 28,456 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 94,638 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 335,750.The previous week was revised up.Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,656,747 (SA) from 2,662,844 (SA) the previous week.Note (released with a 2 week delay): There were an additional 5,487,233 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 5,090,524 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And were an additional 3,805,795 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) up from 3,805,008.Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

After months of silent stages and darkened spotlights, performances return to Broadway. - Broadway is back. Or so it hopes.A year and a half after the coronavirus pandemic forced all 41 theaters to go dark, silencing a symbol of New York and throwingthousands out of work, some of the industry’s biggest and best known shows are resuming performances on Tuesday.Simba will reclaim the Pride Lands in the “The Lion King.” Elphaba and Glinda will return to Oz in “Wicked.” A young, scrappy and hungry immigrant will foment revolution in “Hamilton.” The long-running revival of “Chicago” will give ’em the old razzle dazzle. Plus there’s one new production, the childhood reminiscence “Lackawanna Blues,” offering a reminder that Broadway still provides a home for plays, too.Broadway’s reopening is a high-stakes gamble that theater lovers, culture vultures and screen-weary adventurers are ready to return — vaccinated and masked — to these storied sanctuaries of spectacle and storytelling.But it comes at a time of uncertainty.Back in May, when Broadway got the green light to reopen, it seemed imaginable that the coronavirus pandemic was winding down, thanks to readily available vaccines. Since then, a combination of vaccine hesitancy and the Delta variant has sent cases skyrocketing again.And while New York is doing better than much of the nation, the city is still facing a sharp drop in tourists, who typically make uptwo-thirds of the Broadway audience; many businesses in the region have postponed bringing workers back to their offices; and consumer appetite for live theater after months of anxiety and streaming remains unknown.The industry’s recovery is enormously important to New York City, for symbolic as well as economic reasons.There are reasons to hope. Four trailblazing productions — the concert show “Springsteen on Broadway,” the new play “Pass Over” and the musicals “Waitress” and “Hadestown” — started performances this summer, serving as laboratories for the industry’s safety protocols. None has yet missed a performance.

L.A. County will require proof of vaccination at drinking establishments. -Los Angeles County next month will require proof of coronavirus vaccination to enter bars, nightclubs and other drinking establishments, as it joins the list of places putting pressure on people to get vaccinated, the county authorities said.The county will require customers and employees at such establishments, which also include wineries, breweries and lounges, to show proof that they have at least one dose of the vaccine starting on Oct. 7 and both doses by Nov. 4. The move was announced on Wednesday by Dr. Barbara Ferrer, the director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, at a meeting of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors.“This is a reasonable path forward that could position us to be better able to break the cycle of the surges,” Dr. Ferrer said.The requirement also extends to “outdoor mega events,” where attendees and employees starting on Oct. 7 must show either proof of a vaccine or of a negative Covid test within the past three days, the authorities said. Restaurants will not be included in this mandate, although the county recommends that restaurants follow it anyway. It wasn’t clear why restaurants were omitted. The county already requires people to wear masks indoors, regardless of vaccination status.

The Seattle area will require Covid vaccinations or negative tests for most indoor activities.- King County in Washington State — which includes Seattle and its suburbs — announced coronavirus vaccine and testing requirements on Thursday, falling in line with similar indoor vaccine mandates recently ordered in Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco.Beginning Oct. 25, people attending recreational activities in most public places in the county will be required to show proof of vaccination against Covid-19. The health order extends to outdoor events with 500 or more people and indoor activities of any size, such as performances, movie theaters, conferences, gyms, restaurants and bars.People who are unvaccinated or cannot prove vaccine status will be required to show proof of a negative test.“We are at a critical point in this pandemic, with high levels of new Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations, and no certainty as to what will follow the Delta variant,” said King County Executive Dow Constantine at a news conference. Health officials said Washington State is experiencing record levels of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations. As of Wednesday, daily deaths have jumped 74 percent, according to a New York Times database.

FEMA agrees to cover Covid-19 costs for New York City public hospitals. --After months of delay, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has agreed to reimburse New York City’s public hospital system almost $1 billion for its expenses treating patients during the city’s brutal first wave of Covid-19 in 2020.Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, and Representative Ritchie Torres, both of whom represent New York, announced the news Wednesday outside of Lincoln Hospital in the Bronx, one of the city’s 11 public hospitals. The hospital is in Mr. Torres’s congressional district.Mayor Bill de Blasio, also in attendance, praised the work the public hospital system has done during the pandemic, calling the system “the tip of the spear.” Nearly 3,000 patients died of Covid-19 in the system’s hospitals between March and September of 2020, according to state data. He added, “What I saw from all of you was extraordinary courage, strength, resiliency, incredible commitment.”In October 2020, the system, known as NYC Health + Hospitals, requested roughly $900 million from FEMA to cover costs related to hiring extra staff and expanding its capacity to treat coronavirus patients. FEMA had initially agreed to reimburse only $260 million, less than one-third of the request, arguing that the remainder consisted of costs that were not necessarily related to the virus.But the public hospital system, backed by the lawmakers, maintained that it was impossible to separate specific Covid-related expenses at a time when the system was swamped by the disease. Mr. Torres’s office said Wednesday that after the lawmakers got involved, FEMA relented and agreed to send the system an additional $620 million.

The M.T.A. will withhold death benefits from unvaccinated workers. -New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority plans to extend a $500,000 death benefit to its employees who die of Covid-related causes through the end of 2021, a senior authority official said Monday. But the benefit will remain unavailable to those who decline to get vaccinated against the coronavirus. The authority, which runs New York City’s subways, buses and commuter trains, has provided the $500,000 benefit to all of its 68,000 employees since last year. But in April, as vaccines became widely available, the authority decided that, starting in June, the benefit would be available only to the families of employees who had been vaccinated. That requirement was one of several ways the authority used to urge its workers to get vaccinated. The authority was hit hard by the virus last year, with 171 employees dying of Covid-related causes since the pandemic started. Only three of those deaths have occurred since June, said Tim Minton, a spokesman for the authority. Mr. Minton said that the authority had no indication that any of the three had been vaccinated. He said none of their families had tried to claim the death benefit and so far no family had been denied the benefit. “We want each of our employees to get every single benefit that they are entitled to,” Mr. Minton said. He added that the authority and its officials had taken every step they could think of to encourage employees to get the vaccine, including allowing paid time off for each dose. Tony Utano, president of Local 100 of the Transport Workers Union, said that his members had been notified in April, when the Covid death benefit was extended, that “vaccinations would be required to access the benefit as of June.” The benefit is equal to the benefit for deaths in the line of duty under the union’s contract. Mr. Utano expressed pride in the union’s efforts to persuade the authority to provide the benefit because transit workers had to keep working through the early months of the pandemic. The extended benefit was scheduled to expire on Aug. 31. But the authority’s board is expected to move this week to extend it again, to Dec. 31. Mr. Minton said that more than 70 percent of the authority’s employees have gotten at least one does of the vaccine, mostly through programs run by the state. But the rates are lower for employees of some of the transit divisions, including subways and buses. The authority has not made vaccines mandatory for its workers. But on Oct. 12, it plans to start requiring weekly testing of workers who cannot provide proof that they have been vaccinated.

Florida says it will fine municipalities that mandate vaccinations for their workers. - Florida cities and counties that require public employees to get vaccinated against the coronavirus will face fines of $5,000 each time they enforce their mandates, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced on Monday, escalating his opposition to such measures just as President Biden is expanding them. “We are going to stand for the men and women who are serving us,” Mr. DeSantis, a Republican, said in Newberry, near Gainesville. “We are going to protect Florida jobs. We are not going to let people be fired because of a vaccine mandate.”He noted that the violations could quickly add up to potentially millions of dollars for municipalities mandating the shots.Once the mandates take effect, they would allow escalating discipline — including potential dismissal — against employees who do not get vaccinated.Mr. DeSantis cited a state law enacted this year that prohibits governments and businesses from requiring proof of vaccination from their customers.But the ban on so-called vaccine passports did not preclude businesses from mandating vaccinations of their employees — and many of the state’s largest employers, such as Disney, did just that. Some local governments, including the city of Gainesville,Orange County (home to Orlando) and Leon County (home to Tallahassee), decided to require the vaccines for public workers as well.Gainesville’s mandate, which is scheduled to take effect in October, led to a protest from some workers and labor unions. More than 200 city employees sued over the requirement last month. Several spoke at Monday’s event with the governor.“We feel betrayed and used,” said Lt. Jonathan Cicio of Gainesville Fire Rescue, one of the plaintiffs, who said he has natural antibodies from having Covid-19 and recovering months ago. “While we were heroes and selfless not long ago, now we’re selfish, and they’re just going to let us go.”Ashley Moody, the Florida attorney general, said at the event that her office would file a legal brief in support of the plaintiffs. Mandating the vaccines would aggravate the state’s shortage of law enforcement officers, she said, “which will directly affect the safety of local communities.”In a statement, a spokeswoman for the city of Gainesville stood by the requirement.“The health, safety and welfare of the city’s work force and those we serve is our No. 1 priority,” Shelby N. Taylor said. “It is our belief that as an employer we retain the right to require vaccination as a condition of employment.”

Over Half of States Have Rolled Back Public Health Powers in Pandemic Republican legislators in more than half of U.S. states, spurred on by voters angry about lockdowns and mask mandates, are taking away the powers state and local officials use to protect the public against infectious diseases.A KHN review of hundreds of pieces of legislation found that, in all 50 states, legislators have proposed bills to curb such public health powers since the covid-19 pandemic began. While some governors vetoed bills that passed, at least 26 states pushed through laws that permanently weaken government authority to protect public health. In three additional states, an executive order, ballot initiative or state Supreme Court ruling limited long-held public health powers. More bills are pending in a handful of states whose legislatures are still in session.In Arkansas, legislators banned mask mandates except in private businesses or state-run health care settings, calling them “a burden on the public peace, health, and safety of the citizens of this state.” In Idaho, county commissioners, who typically have no public health expertise, can veto countywide public health orders. And in Kansas and Tennessee, school boards, rather than health officials, have the power to close schools.President Joe Biden last Thursday announced sweeping vaccination mandates and other covid measures, saying he was forced to act partly because of such legislation: “My plan also takes on elected officials in states that are undermining you and these lifesaving actions.” All told:

• In at least 16 states, legislators have limited the power of public health officials to order mask mandates, or quarantines or isolation. In some cases, they gave themselves or local elected politicians the authority to prevent the spread of infectious disease.
• At least 17 states passed laws banning covid vaccine mandates or passports, or made it easier to get around vaccine requirements.
• At least nine states have new laws banning or limiting mask mandates. Executive orders or a court ruling limit mask requirements in five more.

Much of this legislation takes effect as covid hospitalizations in some areas are climbing to the highest numbers at any point in the pandemic, and children are back in school. “We really could see more people sick, hurt, hospitalized or even die, depending on the extremity of the legislation and curtailing of the authority,” said Lori Tremmel Freeman, head of the National Association of County and City Health Officials.Public health academics and officials are frustrated that they, instead of the virus, have become the enemy. They argue this will have consequences that last long beyond this pandemic, diminishing their ability to fight the latest covid surge and future disease outbreaks, such as being able to quarantine people during a measles outbreak.

From COVID to Ida: Louisiana's marginalized 'see no way out' — Darkness set in for Natasha Blunt well before Hurricane Ida knocked out power across Louisiana.Months into the pandemic, she faced eviction in New Orleans. She lost her banquet-hall job. She suffered two strokes. And she struggled to help her 5-year-old grandson keep up with schoolwork at home. Like nearly a fifth of Louisiana’s population — disproportionately represented by Black residents and women — Blunt, 51, lives below the poverty line, and the pandemic’s economic fallout sent her to the brink.. Using a cane and taking a slew of medications since her strokes, she couldn’t return to work. But federal benefits kept food in the fridge for the most part. Then came Hurricane Ida.Ida was the fifth-strongest hurricane to ever hit the U.S. mainland, wiping out Louisiana’s power grid before marching up the coast and sparking devastating Northeast flooding. Among survivors of the deadly storm, the toll has been deepest in many ways for people like Blunt — those who already lost livelihoods to the pandemic in a region of longstanding racial and social inequality. Advocates say the small wins they’d made for marginalized communities and people of color since the pandemic began have been quickly wiped out. “The government is really disconnected from what it’s like for people who have little to no safety net,” said Maggie Harris, a grassroots organizer who created a fundraiser for Blunt. “You marginalize people, you don’t pay them enough, they have health problems and aren’t insured, you offer little cash assistance or rent assistance, and you allow them to be evicted. “The message that people get is their lives are expendable.”As Ida approached, Blunt evacuated to a hotel. She could afford only a short stay and had to return to Chalmette, despite warnings not to go back to humid cities without power. Her apartment was pitch black. Ida had blown in the windows of her upstairs bedroom. Beds, clothing and furniture were waterlogged. She’d spent her last dollars getting to the hotel. “It’s like I’ve got to start all over again,” Blunt said, sobbing as she surveyed her first floor, where she sleeps since the bedroom is uninhabitable. “Every time I get a step ahead, I get pushed back down. And I’m tired. I don’t see no way out.” Blunt faces eviction for the second time in a year. Her only hope, she said, is Social Security and other disability benefits. She applied before Ida, she said, but hasn’t heard back — safety-net programs are often disrupted in disasters’ wakes. Anti-poverty advocates in Louisiana bemoan links between being Black or brown, living in impoverished areas, and being underserved by governmental disaster response. Available aid from anti-poverty programs often fails to meet storm victims’ heightened needs. That’s what happened during Ida, advocates say. In Louisiana, where 17 storms that caused at least $1 billion in damage have hit since 2000, nonprofits see some of the most dire need and starkest divide along socioeconomics lines.

The Symptoms Show American Culture Is Transitioning into a Violent Oligarchy --I’m sitting in my home office working on the next morning’s Daily Rant when I hear what sounded like a man in my driveway yelling, at the top of his voice, “You f*cking c*nt!” and other female-specific obscenities. Walking to the window, I saw a guy in his 40s, red-faced, giving my wife the finger with both hands and cursing her out as he climbed into his car and squealed out of the driveway.Louise, it turns out, had invited a local contractor to give us a bid on some repairs and she’d (very nicely) asked him, before letting him into the house, if he was vaccinated. He exploded and marched back to his car screaming curses at her.In all her years on this planet, including as CEO of three different companies, that was the first time in her life a man had behaved like such an ass toward her.In Tennessee a high school student testifies to a school board meeting that his grandmother has just died of Covid and he begs his school to mandate masks so his other grandmother isn’t next; he’s shouted down, laughed at and heckled by smirking, unmasked adults.On Jet Blue what’s become a new rite of passage for flight attendants blows into life as a man screams obscenities when asked to leave the plane because he refused to properly wear his mask. In Tacoma, Washington a group of thugs goes looking for a fight when “antifa” fails to show up for the brawl the “Boys” had advertised. Undeterred, they march around town with clubs, flags and baseball bats looking for people to pick fights with until a local (not-antifa) man, apparently disgusted and feeling threatened by their behavior, finally pulls out a gun and shoots one of them in the foot. In Ft. Collins Colorado a man harasses a group of women suntanning on the beach for wearing “pornographic” bathing suits, refusing to leave when they ask him to go away because, he says, “This is America!”Across the nation, hundreds of poll workers and election officials endure daily death threats and violent harassment just for doing their civic duty. And school boards are under daily assault in similar fashion. And these are just the stories from the past week.

 Four year old dies from COVID-19 in Texas as cases in children skyrocket across the US -- A four-year-old child died of COVID-19 last Tuesday in Texas just four hours after exhibiting symptoms, in a tragic example of the expanding impact of the pandemic on children across the United States. Kali Cook of Barclif, Texas, began showing symptoms of COVID-19 around 2 a.m. and by 7 a.m. that same morning she had passed away in her sleep. Kali’s mother was unvaccinated and had tested positive for COVID-19 the day before. “I was one of the people that was anti, I was against it,” she told Daily News. “Now, I wish I never was.” The sudden death of Kali Cook is a rare occurrence, but it is by no means an isolated incident. COVID-19 cases among children are exploding across the country just weeks after the reopening of schools, and the number of child deaths continues to rise. Florida recorded 2,448 deaths last week, including four children under the age of 16. For the past three weeks children have made up one-third of new cases in Florida despite making up just 22 percent of the population. In just the past six weeks the total number of COVID-related child deaths in the state has doubled. In response to the rise of pediatric cases, Tampa General Hospital released a video of pediatric doctors and nurses encouraging more people to get vaccinated. “The delta variant really kind of changed the game for us, because we weren’t seeing that many children — now we’re starting to see them in the ICU,” said Janet Elozory, pediatric ICU nurse manager at Tampa General. The situation is the same across the country. According to data from the American Academy of Pediatrics, children now account for more than a quarter of weekly infections nationwide. During the week ending September 2, nearly 252,000 children tested positive for COVID-19. Between August 5 and September 2 nearly 750,000 children tested positive as the pace of infection continues to climb.

Hundreds of COVID-19 cases reported in first week of school in Washington state - Shattering the promises of Washington state politicians and teacher unions that schools could be reopened “safely” with haphazard mitigation measures and staff vaccination, the first week of fall semester resulted in hundreds of students testing positive and many more quarantining due to exposure. Seattle Public Schools (SPS), the largest school district in Washington state, with about 52,000 students and 7,500 full-time staff members, reopened for full in-person instruction on September 1. Data published regularly by the district reveals that 51 positive cases were reported in the first week of school, consisting of only three days for most students. the following week, SPS reported 66 additional cases, bringing the start-of-the-year total to 117. Students constitute 86 percent of all cases, and staff make up 12 percent. Data compiled by the Seattle Times on September 8 shows that eight other school districts in King County reported two or more cases. Northshore School District came third behind Seattle, with 48 total cases reported since August 1, and Federal Way School District came in first with 107 total cases since late August. However, the numbers likely arose from the first one-and-a-half weeks of school as all districts held their first day on September 1. The Washington State Department of Health releases weekly outbreak reports each Wednesday. For the week of August 29, a total of 10 outbreaks were reported, defined as two or more linked cases in a shared location. A total of 358 outbreaks have occurred since the pandemic began. K-12 schools are the fifth-biggest source of outbreaks behind food service, childcare, retail and manufacturing. However, the scale of infection is largely underreported due to the lack of a rapid testing and contact tracing program for all families and school staff, as well as with a lack of transparency from school officials. Washington’s data adds to the overwhelming scientific evidence that reopening schools will result in a significant rise in new cases, especially among unvaccinated children. According to the American Academy of Pediatrics, about 252,000 positive pediatric cases were added just this past week, the largest number of child cases in a week since the pandemic began, with children comprising 26.8 percent of reported weekly COVID-19 cases.

Here’s how in-person teaching is playing out across the U.S. -- New York City public schools are reopening at a time when some schools in other states are already several weeks into in-person teaching. Some districts seem to be doing well, but others are contending with mass outbreaks, hospitalizations and several reported deaths.The data is showing that school reopenings tend to do well in areas with high vaccination rates.San Francisco County in California boasts a 79 percent vaccination rate for those 12 years and up, and its Health Department reported last Thursday that there had been no school outbreaks since classes resumed on Aug. 16. Since the pandemic began, just 13 children in the area have been hospitalized.That bodes well for New York City, where 70 percent of those 12 years and up are vaccinated, though some neighborhoods have lagging rates.The picture is very different in areas with lower vaccination rates. Hillsborough County Schools, in the Tampa, Fla., area, where 58 percent of those 12 and older have been fully vaccinated, isolated or quarantined 8,000 of its students after a mass outbreak last month. Florida schools face a particular set of challenges, given that Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, is adamantly opposed to vaccination and mask mandates, and the state’s Education Department has withheld funds from at least two school districtsthat mandated masks in schools.In Georgia, the Griffin-Spalding County school district, outside of Atlanta, abruptly closed its classrooms temporarily after two bus drivers and a bus monitor died after contracting Covid-19 after school reopened on Aug. 4, according to its superintendent, Keith Simmons. Mr. Simmons said parents were “frustrated” over the short notice.“We weren’t able to give them advanced notice,” Mr. Simmons said. “We made the announcement on a holiday, and parents may not have had enough time to ensure child care.” Other states across the South where vaccine rates lag behind the national average — including Kentucky and Mississippi — are also reporting outbreaks at schools.

Mayor Demands School Board Resign Or Be Charged Over Dissemination Of "Child Pornography" Material - The Mayor of Hudson, Ohio is demanding that school board members either resign or face charges after it was revealed that material which amounts to “child pornography” was part of the curriculum for high school students. The controversy began after parents complained about a book called “642 Things to Write About,” which was provided to high school students who are taking a college credit course called Writing in the Liberal Arts II. The books asks students to “write a sex scene you wouldn’t show your mom,” as well as giving them the task of “(rewriting) the sex scene from above into one that you’d let your mom read.” Concerned parents at the school board meeting on Monday demanded that cameras be placed in classrooms to keep tabs on what is going on, with one person describing the material as”disgusting,” adding that was facilitating “grooming.” Superintendent Phil Herman asserted that the material was removed as soon as officials were alerted to it and that “at no time were any of these inappropriate writing prompts assigned as part of the class.” However, Mayor Craig Shubert demanded severe consequences for those who had potentially exposed minors to such material. “It has come to my attention that your educators are distributing essentially what is child pornography in the classroom,” Shubert told the board. “I’ve spoken to a judge this evening. She’s already confirmed that. So I’m going to give you a simple choice: You either choose to resign from this board of education or you will be charged.” All five members have been given until the end of the month to resign, although Ralph Lusher, staff attorney with the Ohio School Boards Association, suggested that they couldn’t be held criminally liable for curriculum material.

A judge blocked Iowa from enforcing its ban on school mask mandates.- School districts in Iowa will be able to issue mask mandates, at least for now, after a federal judge blocked the state on Monday from enforcing a ban on such policies. The case in Iowa is one of several disputes playing out across the country about the power of local officials to mandate coronavirus precautions and the authority of state leaders to block them. Senior Judge Robert W. Pratt, in explaining his decision to issue a temporary restraining order, said that “if the drastic increase in the number of pediatric Covid-19 cases since the start of the school year in Iowa is any indication of what is to come, such an extreme remedy is necessary to ensure that the children involved in this case are not irreparably harmed.” But Gov. Kim Reynolds, a Republican, said the ruling trampled on parental rights and suggested that the court fight was far from over. “Today, a federal judge unilaterally overturned a state law, ignored the decision by our elected legislature and took away parents’ ability to decide what’s best for their child,” Ms. Reynolds said in a statement. “We will appeal and exercise every legal option we have to uphold state law and defend the rights and liberties afforded to any American citizen protected by our constitution.” American schoolchildren have returned to classrooms in recent weeks, some for the first time since March 2020, as coronavirus cases have reached their highest levels since winter. Unlike in some previous surges, case rates have been high among children, who tend not to become as sick but who can still have severe cases of Covid. With children under 12 still not eligible for vaccines and the highly infectious Delta variant circulating, health officials have recommended masking as a necessary step to curb transmission and keep schools open. But the debate about how to hold class during a pandemic has become intensely divided, with combative school board meetings and accusatory language. Opponents of school mask mandates have described the measures as infringements on personal freedom, while supporters of the policies describe them as an easy way to prevent illness and save lives. Iowa is among six Republican-led states to ban school districts from issuing mask mandates. In Florida, another of the states to ban such mandates, a state appellate court allowed a measure banning school mask mandates to again take effect last week after a lower-court judge briefly paused the policy. Iowa has been averaging more than 1,300 new coronavirus cases a day over the last week, well below the state’s winter peak but far worse than this summer, when fewer than 100 cases were identified many days. About 53 percent of Iowans are fully vaccinated, roughly in line with the national rate.

Judge rejects Minnesota parents' attempt to force statewide school mask mandate - - A Minnesota court judge has rejected state parents’ attempt to force a statewide school mask mandate. In a ruling on Tuesday, Ramsey County District Judge Thomas Gilligan mentioned the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in saying that the parents’ lawsuit lacked the legal authority to order Gov. Tim Walz (D) to implement a new state order. “While this court is gravely concerned about the public health consequences of the failure of school districts to implement the guidance of the CDC and the Minnesota Department of Health regarding use of masks for children, teachers and staff in K-12 public schools, the judiciary cannot order a co-equal branch of government to exercise its discretionary, political judgment to implement a specific educational policy,” Gilligan wrote in his order. State school districts can implement their own COVID-19 restrictions and mandates, with some requiring students to wear masks and others making mask-wearing optional,according to Minnesota Public Radio. Marshall Tanick, an attorney who represented the Parents Advocating for Safe Schools (PASS), told the radio station that even with the ruling the case might not be over. “We knew this would be a difficult case, especially at the trial court level, but it’s an extremely important one,” Tanick told MPR. “And we are examining a number of alternatives, including the possibility of an accelerated or expedited appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court due to the urgency of this matter.” An Iowa district judge on Tuesday halted Gov. Kim Reynolds’s (R) executive order banning state school districts from implementing mask mandates, The Associated Press reported.

Ohio reports more than 10,000 new school COVID-19 cases in past week – The Ohio Department of Health on Thursday reported 10,682 new COVID-19 cases among K-12 school students and staff, bringing the total early in this academic year to 28,417.Cases reported to ODH this week reflect the week ending the previous Sunday. Infections were caught in and out of school. Learn more about the data in the dropdown below: Schools report cases among students and staff to ODH on Tuesdays, reflecting the week ending on the previous Sunday. ODH releases numbers on Thursdays at 2 p.m. Case criteria:

• Full-time or part-time students and staff who have tested positive for or been diagnosed with COVID-19. Infections were caught in and out of school.
• Staff members include teachers, administrators, coaches and support staff.
• Excludes students/staff who are completely remote, but includes them if they were “on-site” while infectious.
• ODH reports “new” and “cumulative” cases. Cases only move over to “cumulative” once the person is no longer COVID-positive.

NBC4’s count of new cases every week reflects the change in “cumulative” cases. More info: 1,212 (44%) of 2,767 schools, districts, private schools, vocational schools, preschools and other non-college institutions that the state tracks have reported cases this fall. That’s 194 more schools than last week.The median number of cases among schools with at least one infection is nine cases, while the median number for school districts is 24 cases. 23,886 (84%) of Ohio’s school cases are students and 4,531 (16%) are staff members, which include teachers, administrators, coaches and support staff. Last school year, students were roughly 2 in 3 cases, and staff were 1 in 3.Cincinnati Public Schools, a district of more than 34,000 students, leads the state in cases with 515, well above second-place Toledo City Schools at 317. Four Columbus area school districts are in the top seven. More than 98% of Ohio’s school districts are physically in school five days a week, according to Thursday data from the Ohio Department of Education. But just over 63% of students are enrolled in a district that requires masks for all or some students, which state officials attribute to the rise of cases in school. “COVID cases are increasing at nearly twice the rate among school-age children as compared to how they’re increasing among the rest of the population,” Gov. Mike DeWine said Tuesday.

100+ nurses at Columbus schools ‘burnt out’ from handling COVID-19, says letter to superintendent and board — More than 100 nurses working for Columbus City Schools say they’re overwhelmed handling COVID-19. A letter to Superintendent Talisa Dixon and the school board, signed by 115 school nurses, demands changes to protocol. Less than a month into the school year, the scathing letter says the virus is running “rampant” through school buildings and the current situation is not sustainable. Nurses employed by Ohio’s largest public school district are quoted in the letter as saying, “Nurses are absolutely drowning and I feel like there is no lifeline,” “I am feeling stressed and overwhelmed all the time,” and “I feel as though I am on the Titanic.” The strong words come as no surprise to Kate Curry-Da-Souza, who pulled her third-grade son from CCS the day before classes began. Curry-Da-Souza said her son, Nico, has a condition that puts him at high risk of a severe COVID-19 infection. She told NBC4 Investigates she was concerned about full school buses and classrooms, among other things. “I want to have my kid back at Columbus City Schools so badly, but I just — it’s about his safety at the end of the day. I need him to be alive next year for that,” she said. “These are a group of individuals who can’t get vaccinated. So, they’re just literally being sent like lambs to the slaughter. I just — I can’t stomach it.” Nico is now enrolled in an online program outside of CCS. “We have to find a way to have this done safely,” Curry Da-Souza said. “And I just don’t see that that’s being done.” The nurses’ letter outlines specific complaints, saying contact tracing often falls only on the nurses, leaving them “burnt out” from “working late into the evening.” It also says the district’s protocols are unclear, leaving room for misunderstanding. The nurses cited one example of a school principal telling staff in an email that “they can continue reporting to work” if they test positive for the virus, “as long as they wear a mask and social-distanced.”

Georgia school bus drivers stage sickouts to protest inadequate COVID-19 protections and low pay - On September 3, 54 school bus drivers in the Savannah-Chatham County Public School System SCCSS) in Georgia began a rolling sickout and staged a protest at the school district offices over pay structure and lack of adequate protections from COVID-19. The sickouts forced the school board to scramble for drivers to transport students. The school relies on about 218 drivers to ferry more than 18,700 students to and from school; the 54 drivers who are protesting represent about 22 percent of the district’s drivers. A school district spokesperson reported that the district had been forced to call upon private coaches and other employees with commercial driver’s licenses (CDL) to make up for the deficit. The school board released a statement on Friday saying that they were already understaffed, and they were trying to hire more drivers. “District Administration is working to identify the drivers who did not report to work today and to determine the factors that contributed to their absence,” a statement issued by the administration declared. “SCCPSS is committed to working closely with transportation staff to find solutions that support our shared goals of providing quality educational services to the 37,000 children we serve daily.” The bus drivers say that the district is fully aware of the contributing factors. Drivers have been in an ongoing dispute with the district over their pay structure and their retirement plans. SCCPSS drivers receive 24 paychecks per year, as do salaried employees in the district. Unlike salaried employees, bus drivers are paid hourly. Because their hours vary, with some weeks requiring overtime and others with few hours at all, a pay period that ends in the middle of a week can result in a check that barely covers their benefits or fails to pay their bills. In addition, they have expressed concerns about safety on the buses as the Delta variant of the COVID-19 virus surges in Chatham County. Federal mandate requires masks of all school bus riders. The district, however, refuses to enforce the mandate, and drivers are frustrated at being made to transport students whose parents refuse to wear masks.

National Guard deployed in Massachusetts as pandemic worsens school bus driver shortage in US - Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker has deployed 250 National Guard troops to transport students in the state as school districts across the country scramble to deal with a nationwide shortage of school bus drivers brought on by the pandemic. The action by the Republican governor takes place as the Biden administration and politicians from both parties risk the lives of millions of students and school employees by opening schools across the US amid the surge of COVID-19 infections and deaths. Baker said 90 soldiers would begin training Tuesday to transport students in the Chelsea, Lawrence, Lowell and Lynn school systems. Military transport vans known as 7D vehicles, which have a maximum of 11 seats including the driver, will be used to drive a token number of special needs students back and forth from school. A bus monitor will be aboard each vehicleBaker told reporters that if more qualified drivers could not be found, “we’ll try to serve as many communities as we can.” He said the state would be reimbursed by the federal government and added, “Obviously the goal here is to try to make sure if we have vehicles, we put people on them who are qualified to drive them and do what we can to make sure kids can get to school.” Last week, the National Association for Pupil Transportation released the results of a national survey, which found that over half of the school transportation officials who responded were experiencing “severe” or “desperate” bus driver shortages, and nearly two-thirds stated that the driver shortage is currently their number one challenge. Even the few districts that said they were not short of regular drivers said they did not have enough drivers to address COVID-19 quarantines and the wave of retirements. An estimated 200 school bus drivers have died during the pandemic, including dozens since the reopenings started in August. In Chicago, officials have given money to parents to hire Uber drivers, and in Iowa, teachers and staff are being asked to get licenses to drive school buses. School bus drivers, many of whom are older and have underlying health conditions, are retiring in droves. But the shortage predates the pandemic and was driven by decades of bipartisan budget cutting, school bus privatization and mass layoffs, which gutted the jobs, pay and medical and retirement benefits of bus drivers. Now districts are offering a meager pay bump and signing bonuses to lure retired drivers back. However, older workers with underlying conditions and prospective new hires do not want to risk their lives or bring home the disease to their loved ones.

Texas A&M student dies of COVID-19 as new cases explode at Texas colleges - Twenty-year-old Texas A&M University student Kirstyn Katherine Ahuero died from COVID-19 on September 8. Her death comes as campuses have reopened for in-person classes, and thousands of students have tested positive for the virus. According to her obituary, Ahuero was a sophomore biomedical sciences major at Texas A&M University, College Station, the valedictorian of her high school class, and a volunteer over the past summer for the National Suicide Hotline, having decided that she wanted to be a psychiatric nurse. She loved spending time with her animals, taking trips with family and gaming with her family and friends. Amy Earhart, an associate professor of English at Texas A&M, stated in a tweet with over 51,000 likes, “Our first student has died of covid ... and I feel horrible. No masking rules, no vaccination rules. How is this ok?” It is not known at this time whether Ahuero was vaccinated. In the wake of her death, no shutdown of in-person classes has been announced by the university, nor has there even been a change in safety measures. Many of the tweets in response to Earhart’s tweet expressed outrage at the clearly homicidal policy of the Texas government, which has banned both mask and vaccine mandates in the state even as deaths spiraled out of control. As of Wednesday 20,000 new cases were confirmed, with 411 deaths reported. Almost 60,000 people have lost their lives in the state from COVID-19 as a result of the bipartisan push for the reopening nonessential businesses and schools while throwing out public health measures. Susan Chabot commented, “Exactly the reason I retired effective Wed. I can’t in good conscious work for a district that has no mitigation in place to slow the spread. Missing out on $6000 in longevity and AP score bonuses but I can’t watch it happen day after day.” Many others expressed similar experiences and sympathy for school staff, who have been forced to choose between their jobs and their health.

Largest colleges push student vaccines with mandates, prizes-- As a new semester begins amid a resurgence of the coronavirus, 26 of the 50 largest public university campuses in the U.S. are not mandating that students be vaccinated, according to an analysis by The Associated Press. Approaches on enforcement vary widely even among universities that do have vaccine mandates, with some offering leniency for students who opt out and others expelling those who do not comply. Administrators are emphasizing high numbers for student vaccinations as key to bringing some normalcy back to campus and keeping instruction in classrooms rather than online. Where mandates face political opposition, schools are relying on incentives and outreach to get more students vaccinated. The universities without vaccine mandates include many of the country's very largest and account for roughly 55% of students enrolled at the 50 biggest overall, according to the AP analysis, which looked at the largest campuses by 2019-2020 enrollment that offer on-campus housing and award bachelor’s degrees. Universities with vaccine mandates are concentrated in the Northeast and California. Almost all of those without mandates are in states that have restricted the ability to implement COVID-19 vaccine requirements, including Florida, Texas and Arizona. Here is a look at approaches that three public universities are taking to get students vaccinated:

• UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT Students are required to be vaccinated, but the school has been lenient with those opposed to getting the shots. It has granted over 800 exemptions without denying a single request, no matter the reason.
• UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA The Orlando campus is holding a raffle with prizes for vaccinated students, offering the shots at its student health center and rolling out a campaign urging students to get “Vacci-Knighted" — a play on the name of its sports teams, the Knights. But an executive order from Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis prevents the school and other organizations in Florida from mandating vaccines.
• UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA Students who don't comply with a school vaccine mandate or apply for a religious or medical exemption have been kicked out. Near the start of the semester, 193 students had been unenrolled for not getting the shots, according to Dr. Christopher Holstege, director of student health and wellness. He said the policy aligns with requirements that students be vaccinated for other diseases such as measles and mumps.

Marijuana use soars among college students while alcohol use drops: research --A National Institutes of Health (NIH) study has found that marijuana use among college students is soaring as alcohol consumption drops. In its “Monitoring the Future” report, the NIH found that 44 percent of college students reported using marijuana in the past year, a 6-point increase from 2015. Daily marijuana usage ticked up from 5 percent to 8 percent of respondents during that time. Meanwhile, 56 percent of college students said they consumed alcohol last year, dropping from 62 percent in 2019. The number of students who reported binge drinking, defined as having five or more drinks during an outing, dipped from 32 percent to 24 percent in 2020, according to the report. Nine percent of college students admitted to psychedelic drugs usage, a 4-point increase from 2019. The report also highlighted the decline of cigarette smoking, amphetamines, and prescription opioid usage among students. “The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically changed the way that young people interact with one another and offers us an opportunity to examine whether drug taking behavior has shifted through these changes,” Nora Volkow, director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse, said in a statement. “Moving forward, it will be critical to investigate how and when different substances are used among this young population, and the impact of these shifts over time,” she added. University of Michigan professor John Schulenberg, the study’s principal investigator, told The Washington Post that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused alcohol consumption to drop among students. “That’s definitely one the greatest pandemic effects,” Schulenberg said. “We clearly see that young people use alcohol as something to be taken at parties and gatherings. With the pandemic, those weren’t happening, so the alcohol intake and binge drinking dropped.” Thirty-seven states have legalized either the recreational or medical use of marijuana, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures data.

Why some backers of student lending product welcome CFPB crackdown --A Consumer Financial Protection Bureau order against a provider of income-share agreements signals regulatory tightening for all ISAs, but could also give the education finance sector legal clarity, observers said.ISAs offer tuition money in exchange for some of a student's future income. While many see the product as a progressive alternative to traditional student loans, consumer advocates say some have avoided regulatory scrutiny by claiming ISAs are not credit.The CFPB agreed with consumer groups, saying in a consent order that Better Future Forward, a Virginia-based nonprofit, misled consumers by attesting that its products were not loans. The agency required that the nonprofit comply with consumer protection laws such as the Truth in Lending Act.

A new study suggests that children’s eyesight may have worsened during lockdown. - Young students who recently endured a year of pandemic lockdowns may have suffered deteriorating eyesight, according to a study published Thursday in Jama Ophthalmology.The study was conducted by the Sun Yat-sen University School of Public Health, based on data from annual eye exams given to more than 2,000 students in a dozen primary schools in Guangzhou, China, from 2018 to 2020.About 13 percent of second-grade students who had eye exams in 2018 developed nearsightedness by 2019, according to the study. By comparison, more than 20 percent of those who had eye exams in 2019 became nearsighted by 2020, a statistically significant difference. Initial tests of both groups showed that about 7 percent of the students were nearsighted.The effects on the eyesight of students ages 9 and older appeared to be negligible, the researchers said. The findings suggested that younger children were more susceptible to environmental effects on their vision. The study did not explore the hours children spent in front of computer screens as part of remote learning, or the time spent reading books — avid young readers may develop nearsightedness as well — so it is not possible to draw conclusions about the effects of screen time on their eyesight. “Whether it’s due to being stuck indoors, doing more indoor activities and online schooling, or not being able to see their doctor for their annual appointments to check for progression, more students have developed nearsightedness during the pandemic than before,” he said.

Early Look at 2022 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base --The BLS reported this morning: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 5.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 268.387 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U, and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). In 2020, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 253.412.The 2020 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year.This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.Note: The year labeled for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year). CPI-W was up 5.8% year-over-year in August, and although this is early - we need the data for September - my current guess is COLA will probably be around 5.8% this year, the largest increase since 5.8% in 2008 - and it is possible this will be the largest increase since 1982 (7.4%).The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2020 yet, but wages probably increased again in 2020. If wages increased the same as in 2019, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $148,200 in 2022, from the current $142,800.Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W, NSA, for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).

Social Security COLA for 2022 to be Near 5.8%, Could Match 2009, Biggest Since 1982 - By Wolf Richter -Among the inflation data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which is used to calculate the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits.For August, the CPI-W jumped 5.8% year-over-year. In July, it had jumped by 6.0%, in June by 6.1%. The summer readings are the highest since July 2008, and before then, since 1990: By comparison, the regular headline inflation number that was released today, CPI-U, rose by 5.3% year-over-year. The COLA to be applied to Social Security benefits starting in January 2022 is based on the average year-over-year percentage increase of CPI-W in July (6.0%), August (5.8%), and September (to be released a month from now).If the September reading comes in at 5.6%, the COLA for 2022 would be 5.8% (the average of July’s 6.0%, August’s 5.8%, and September’s 5.6%). This 5.8% would match the COLA of 2009. Both would be the highest since 1982 (7.4%).When the September value of CPI-W is released in about a month, we can estimate with some accuracy what the COLA for 2022 will be (red = estimate based on actual July and August and September projection of 5.6%):While this type of COLA will provide some relief from the price increases that have been gnawing away at fixed incomes, it will still be insufficient to compensate for the surging costs that individuals may face in housing and other major expenses, depending on their situation and location.If the beneficiary rents in a city where rents have been soaring in the double digits, a 5.8% COLA won’t go far. If a beneficiary drives a lot, the 43% jump in gasoline prices is going to hurt. Used vehicle prices are up 32% from a year ago, new vehicle prices 7.6%. Then there are healthcare costs, which can be a major issue, despite all the parts of Medicare.The COLA for 2021 was only 1.3%, which was based on the average of CPI-W in July, August, and September 2020, when CPI readings happened to be very low. So, given the price surges in 2021, that lousy 1.3% COLA this year is leaving many people deeply in the hole. And now, a lot of big expenditure categories have already outrun what might be a 5.8% COLA next year.Inflation means the dollar loses purchasing power. And over time, COLAs will be purposefully insufficient to compensate beneficiaries for the actual loss of the purchasing power of the dollar as encountered in real life. If Social Security payments are the only source of income, actual inflation, as encountered in real life, will nearly guarantee a continual slow reduction in the standard of living.

 One in 9 nursing home residents are being diagnosed with schizophrenia so understaffed facilities can better handle patients At least 21% of nursing home residents across the country have been prescribed antipsychotic drugs, with one in nine residents being diagnosed with schizophrenia, The New York Times reported. Many of the diagnoses appear to be efforts to give residents sedative drugs such as Haldol, so understaffed facilities can better handle them, even when there is no evidence a patient has schizophrenia, the Times analysis found. The diagnosis is given to treat residents for symptoms like restlessness and agitation.Since 2012, there's been a 70% rise in the number of nursing home residents being diagnosed with the disorder. In the US, schizophrenia is prevalent in 0.25% and 0.64% of the population.The disorder, which presents psychotic symptoms such as hallucinations, delusions, and thought disorder, is usually diagnosed when someone is in their late teen to early thirties, according to the National Institute of Mental Health. "People don't just wake up with schizophrenia when they are elderly," Dr. Michael Wasserman, a geriatrician and former nursing home executive who has become a critic of the industry told the Times. "It's used to skirt the rules."The Medicare website, which tracks the use of antipsychotic drugs in nursing homes, found that about 15% of residents are on these drugs, but the Times analysis found that those statistics don't account for residents with a schizophrenia diagnosis. That means the true number of people on antipsychotic drugs is much higher. Facilities do not have to report residents using antipsychotic drugs to the government if those residents are being given the drug to treat schizophrenia, the Times reported.

 Eye conditions linked to heightened risk of dementia - Age-related macular degeneration, cataract and diabetes-related eye disease are linked to an increased risk of dementia, suggests research published online in the British Journal of Ophthalmology. Vision impairment can be one of the first signs of dementia, and reduced stimulation of visual sensory pathways is believed to accelerate its progression. Some small studies have suggested there may be a link between ophthalmic conditions that cause vision impairment - age-related macular degeneration, cataract, diabetes-related eye disease and glaucoma - and cognitive impairment. The incidence of these ophthalmic conditions increases with age, as does the incidence of systematic conditions such as diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, depression and stroke, which are accepted risk factors for dementia. It is therefore unclear whether these ophthalmic conditions are associated with a higher incidence of dementia independently of these systematic conditions, so to investigate, the authors analysed data on 12,364 adults aged 55-73 years enrolled in the UK Biobank study. The participants were assessed between 2006 and 2010 at baseline and followed up until early 2021. During the 1,263,513 person-years of follow-up 2,304 cases of dementia were recorded. Analysis of these data showed that age-related macular degeneration, cataract and diabetes-related eye disease, but not glaucoma, were independently associated with increased risk of dementia from any cause. Compared with people who did not have ophthalmic conditions at the start of the study, the risk of dementia was 26% higher in those with age-related macular degeneration, 11% higher in those with cataract, and 61% higher in those with diabetes-related eye disease. While glaucoma was not associated with increased risk of Alzheimer’s disease, it was associated with a higher risk of vascular dementia.

Physical distance may not be enough to prevent viral aerosol exposure indoors - Eighteen months ago, stickers began to dot the floors of most shops, spaced about six feet apart, indicating the physical distance required to avoid the COVID-19 virus an infected person may shed when breathing or speaking. But is the distance enough to help avoid infectious aerosols? Not indoors, say researchers in the Penn State Department of Architectural Engineering. The team found that indoor distances of two meters — about six and a half feet — may not be enough to sufficiently prevent transmission of airborne aerosols. Their results were made available online ahead of the October print edition of Sustainable Cities and Society “We set out to explore the airborne transport of virus-laden particles released from infected people in buildings,” The researchers examined three factors: the amount and rate of air ventilated through a space, the indoor airflow pattern associated with different ventilation strategies and the aerosol emission mode of breathing versus talking. “Our study results reveal that virus-laden particles from an infected person’s talking — without a mask — can quickly travel to another person’s breathing zone within one minute, even with a distance of two meters,” “This trend is pronounced in rooms without sufficient ventilation. The results suggest that physical distance alone is not enough to prevent human exposure to exhaled aerosols and should be implemented with other control strategies such as masking and adequate ventilation.” The researchers found that aerosols traveled farther and more quickly in rooms with displacement ventilation, where fresh air continuously flows from the floor and pushes old air to an exhaust vent near the ceiling. This is the type of ventilation system installed in most residential homes, and it can result in a human breathing zone concentration of viral aerosols seven times higher than mixed-mode ventilation systems. Many commercial buildings use mixed-mode systems, which incorporate outside air to dilute the indoor air and result in better air integration — and tempered aerosol concentrations, according to the researchers. “This is one of the surprising results: Airborne infection probability could be much higher for residential environments than office environments,” Rim said. “However, in residential environments, operating mechanical fans and stand-alone air cleaners can help reduce infection probability.”

In a new review, some F.D.A. scientists and others say boosters aren’t needed for the general population. - None of the data on coronavirus vaccines so far provides credible evidence in support of boosters for the general population, according to a review published on Monday by an international group of scientists, including some at the Food and Drug Administration and the World Health Organization.The 18 authors include Dr. Philip Krause and Dr. Marion Gruber, F.D.A. scientists who announced last month that they will be leaving the agency, at least in part because they disagreed with the Biden administration’s push for boosters before federal scientists could review the evidence and make recommendations.The Biden administration has proposed administering vaccine boosters eight months after the initial shots. But many scientists have opposed the plan, saying the vaccines continue to be powerfully protective against severe illness and hospitalization. A committee of advisers to the F.D.A. is scheduled to meet on Friday to review the data.In the new review, published in The Lancet, experts said that whatever advantage boosters provide would not outweigh the benefit of using those doses to protect the billions of people who remain unvaccinated worldwide. Boosters may be useful in some people with weak immune systems, they said, but are not yet needed for the general population.Several studies published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, including three on Friday, suggest that while efficacy against infection with the Delta variant seems to wane slightly over time, the vaccines hold steady against severe illness in all age groups. Only in older adults over 75 do the vaccines show some weakening in protection against hospitalization.Immunity conferred by vaccines relies on protection both from antibodies and from immune cells. Although the levels of antibodies may wane over time — and raise the risk of infection — the body’s memory of the virus is long-lived.The vaccines are slightly less effective against infection with the Delta variant than with the Alpha variant, but the virus has not yet evolved to evade the sustained responses from immune cells, the experts said. Boosters may eventually be needed even for the general population if a variant emerges that sidesteps the immune response.The experts cautioned that promoting boosters before they are needed, as well as any reports of side effects from booster shots such as heart problems or Guillain-Barre syndrome, may undermine confidence in the primary vaccination.

Vaccines effective against Delta variant - COVID-19 vaccines are effective at preventing hospitalizations and emergency department visits caused by the Delta variant, according to data from a national study. That data also indicate that Moderna’s vaccine is significantly more effective against Delta than Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson. “These real-world data show that vaccines remain highly effective at reducing COVID-19 related hospitalizations and emergency department visits, even in the presence of the new COVID-19 variant,” said study author Shaun Grannis, M.D., M.S., Regenstrief Institute vice president for data and analytics and professor of medicine at Indiana University School of Medicine. “We strongly recommend vaccinations for all who are eligible to reduce serious illness and ease the burden on our healthcare system.”The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s VISION Network analyzed more than 32,000 medical encounters from nine states during June, July and August 2021, when the Delta variant became the predominant strain. The results showed that unvaccinated individuals with COVID-19 are 5-7 times more likely to need emergency department care or hospitalization, similar to the overall effectiveness prior to the variant.The study in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report is also the first analysis from the VISION Network to show a marked difference between the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer). In the study’s time period:

• Moderna was 95 percent effective at preventing hospitalizations among adults ages 18 and older.
• Pfizer was 80 percent effective at preventing hospitalizations among adults ages 18 and older.
• Johnson & Johnson was 60 percent effective at preventing hospitalizations among adults ages 18 and older.

The study also found that vaccine effectiveness is lower for people 75 years and older, which has not been shown in previous research. This could be due to a range of factors, including the increased time since vaccination.

New Pfizer data makes case for booster shots 6 months after primary doses - The Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday released new data from Pfizer's submitted application to approve booster doses of its Covid-19 vaccine. In it, Pfizer demonstrates what it sees as proof that third shot will be both safe and necessary for most Americans to take, arguing that immunity wanes over time -- regardless of any new variant of concern.It comes two days ahead of a critical juncture in the COVID-19 vaccine booster approval process: Friday, the Food and Drug Administration's independent advisory committee (VRBPAC) is set to convene to review and discuss the latest data on potential booster doses of the Pfizer vaccine. The committee will be asked to vote on whether a booster dose is safe enough for widespread use -- and whether it's necessary and effective at improving protection levels. In mid-August, the FDA authorized boosters of Moderna and Pfizer for the roughly 7 million immunocompromised Americans who didn't get an optimal immune response to their initial vaccine doses.Pfizer/BioNTech, which partnered to develop the nation's first fully approved vaccine, has said it has early data suggesting a booster dose anywhere from six to 12 months after the second dose will help maintain a high level of protection; Pfizer asked the FDA to approve booster doses of its vaccine in late August by submitting an application and data. On Wednesday morning, the FDA made that data public.While the independent members of the VRBPAC's votes are not binding, the agency takes its recommendations under serious advisement in deciding whether to grant vaccines new authorization or approval. If and when a recommendation does come to green light booster shots, several additional steps must follow before it's time for more Americans to role up their sleeves a third time.

FDA scientists skeptical of COVID-19 booster evidence ahead of key meeting - Food and Drug Administration (FDA) scientists on Wednesday did not immediately endorse the evidence that a booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was necessary for all Americans who received the shot. In documents posted online ahead of a key FDA vaccine advisory committee meeting Friday, agency staff sounded skeptical of the evidence presented by the drug company and noted that all available data has not been submitted or reviewed yet. "Overall, data indicate that currently US-licensed or authorized COVID-19 vaccines still afford protection against severe COVID-19 disease and death in the United States," scientists said in a briefing document. The FDA's independent panel of experts on Friday will review the evidence from Pfizer and will likely vote on whether there's enough evidence to show boosters are necessary. The FDA does not have to follow the agency's advice, but if the agency breaks with the panel's recommendation it would likely stoke public confusion and raise major questions about political interference. If the FDA panel recommends a booster dose, the agency will formally accept the decision, and then a separate advisory committee convened by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will vote on whether to administer them broadly. In an unusual move last month, President Biden and top health officials publicly announced a booster shot program would begin the week of Sept. 20, well before the FDA and CDC examined the evidence. While officials have been careful to say the booster program is contingent on the FDA and CDC giving the green light, they have been criticized by some public health experts for speaking as if the approval was a given. In making its case for a third dose, Pfizer argued that protection against COVID-19 infection wanes primarily because of time, rather than because of the delta variant. Pfizer cited evidence from lab studies as well as real-world data from Israel, which has been administering boosters to people over 60 since the end of July. The country recently expanded boosters to people over age 30.

Federal regulators publish the first analysis of Pfizer’s booster shot application. The Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday offered the first public look at Pfizer’s application for a booster coronavirus shot, two days before an outside advisory committee of experts is scheduled to meet to recommend whether or not the agency should approve the company’s request.It also comes amid significant disagreement about the need for boosters between career scientists at the agency and top Biden health officials, who have already started planning a broad boostercampaign for this fall.In a 23-page document reviewing the company’s application, regulators examined safety and immune response data on roughly 300 adults who received a booster shot of Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine six months after their second dose, finding an increased immune response in study participants, even as they said that coronavirus vaccines were holding up powerfully against severe forms of Covid-19. There were no serious safety concerns associated with the booster injection, the regulators reported.Pfizer said in a separate filing that one month after a third injection, levels of neutralizing antibodies against the Delta variant in a subgroup of trial volunteers were between five and seven times higher, roughly, than they were a month after the second dose. The company also reiterated its findings that the effectiveness of its vaccine against symptomatic disease fell from about 96 percent to about 84 percent by six months after the second shot, although it held steady against severe disease.Pfizer argued in its filing that ebbing of the vaccine’s potency was the dominant reason for breakthrough infections among vaccinated people in Israel, which has relied almost exclusively on the Pfizer vaccine and has vaccinated its population faster than the United States.But the F.D.A. regulators wrote that while waning immunity is one potential factor in breakthrough infections, other variables, including the Delta variant, may also have contributed to the cases.In an interview, Pfizer officials acknowledged that the company’s booster study was quite small. But they said that the data they have delivered meets the F.D.A.’s criteria for justifying third shots for people 16 and up. Pfizer has another, much bigger booster study underway, with results expected this fall. The F.D.A.’s analysis noted that Pfizer provided data on immune response against the Delta variant, by far the dominant variant in the U.S., in only two dozen people. Understanding the effectiveness of boosters against variants would likely be critical to the F.D.A.’s review, the document suggested. “Available data should support the effectiveness of the booster dose, particularly against currently circulating” variants, regulators wrote.

An F.D.A. panel recommends Pfizer boosters for those over 65 or at high risk of severe Covid. - A key advisory panel to the Food and Drug Administration overwhelmingly rejected recommending Pfizer booster shots for most recipients of the company’s coronavirus vaccine, instead endorsing them only for people who are 65 or older or at high risk of severe Covid-19. The vote — the first on boosters in the United States — was a blow to the Biden administration’s strategy to make extra shots available to most fully vaccinated adults in the United States eight months after they received a second dose. The broader rollout was to start next week. Committee members appeared dismissive of the argument that the general population needed booster shots, saying the data from Pfizer and elsewhere still seemed to show two shots protected against severe disease or hospitalization and did not prove a third shot would stem the spread of infection. Some also criticized a lack of data that an additional injection would be safe for younger people. “It’s unclear that everyone needs to be boosted, other than a subset of the population that clearly would be at high risk for serious disease,” said Dr. Michael G. Kurilla, a committee member and official at the National Institutes of Health. But the panel’s final recommendation left some room for the White House to argue that the core of its booster strategy remains intact. Depending on how “at high risk” is defined, tens of millions of Americans could conceivably wind up eligible for additional shots of the Pfizer vaccine. The committee of largely outside experts voted 16 to 2 against a Pfizer booster for people 16 and older after a tense daylong public discussion that put divisions within the agency and the administration on public display. Officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health joined infectious disease experts and doctors in voting against additional shots for such a broad swatch of the population.

Hours before the F.D.A. vote, the C.D.C. released a study showing waning protection of the Pfizer vaccine. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released data on Friday indicating that the level of protection against Covid hospitalizations afforded by the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine dropped significantly in the four months after full inoculation.The data was released hours before a scientific advisory committee to the Food and Drug Administration recommended authorizing booster shots for recipients of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine who are 65 or older or are at high risk of severe Covid-19, at least six months after the second shot.The new study found that from two weeks after recipients got their second dose — a point at which they are normally considered fully vaccinated — to four months later, the Pfizer vaccine was 91 percent effective in preventing hospitalization. Beyond 120 days, though, its effectiveness fell to 77 percent.The Moderna vaccine showed no comparable decrease in protection over the same time frame: It was 92 percent effective against hospitalizations four months after recipients’ vaccination, a level virtually identical to its 93 percent effectiveness before then.The study said that not enough participants had received the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine to compare its performance. Overall, though, the Johnson & Johnson shot has been 71 percent effective in preventing hospitalizations.The C.D.C. study released on Friday supported some others that suggested the Pfizer vaccine may offer less protection from hospitalization over time. But the available data is far from unanimous. Other studies have shown that Pfizer’s effectiveness against hospitalization has remained above 90 percent, despite the spread of the Delta variant and the lengthening time since people received their second shots. Pfizer has said that data from Israel suggest a falling effectiveness against severe disease, though it appears that Israel and the United States define “severe disease” differently.

As COVID-19 vaccine mandates rise, religious exemptions grow - An estimated 2,600 Los Angeles Police Department employees are citing religious objections to try to get out of the required COVID-19 vaccination. In Washington state, thousands of state workers are seeking similar exemptions. And in Arkansas, a hospital has been swamped with so many such requests from employees that it is apparently calling their bluff. Religious objections, once used sparingly around the country to get exempted from various required vaccines, are becoming a much more widely used loophole against the COVID-19 shot. And it is only likely to grow following President Joe Biden’s sweeping new vaccine mandates covering more than 100 million Americans, including executive branch employees and workers at businesses with more than 100 people on the payroll. The administration acknowledges that a small minority of Americans will use — and some may seek to exploit — religious exemptions. But it said it believes even marginal improvements in vaccination rates will save lives. It is not clear how many federal employees have asked for a religious exemption, though union officials say there will be many requests. The Labor Department has said an accommodation can be denied if it causes an undue burden on the employer. In the states, mask and vaccine requirements vary, but most offer exemptions for certain medical conditions or religious or philosophical objections. The use of such exemptions, particularly by parents on behalf of their schoolchildren, has been growing over the past decade. The allowance was enshrined in the federal Civil Rights Act of 1964, which says employers must make reasonable accommodations for employees who object to work requirements because of “sincerely held” religious beliefs. A religious belief does not have to be recognized by an organized religion, and it can be new, unusual or “seem illogical or unreasonable to others,” according to rules laid out by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. But it can’t be founded solely on political or social ideas. That puts employers in the position of determining what is a legitimate religious belief and what is a dodge. ...

 At U.S. nursing homes, aides were the least likely workers to be vaccinated, a study shows.--Nursing home aides — the staff members who provide the most direct care to residents — were the least likely to be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus by mid-July, according to a new analysis of U.S. facilities.The study underscores the influence that President Biden’s new federal mandate for all health care workers may have on populations like the elderly in nursing homes who are vulnerable to coronavirus infections, experts say.The findings are “alarming and reason for pause,” said Brian McGarry, a health researcher at the University of Rochester and one of the authors of the analysis, which appeared in a research letter in JAMA Internal Medicine on Thursday.Low vaccination rates among nursing home workers in some areas have fueled concern about fresh outbreaks among staff and residents in these facilities, even with high numbers of vaccinated residents. Covid deaths among nursing home staff and residents accounted for nearly one third of the nation’s pandemic fatalities as of June 1, and vaccination rates among staff average around 63 percent, according to the latest federal data.But slightly under half of the certified nursing assistants were fully vaccinated, according to the analysis, which looked at federal vaccination data through July 18. That was before many nursing homes, states and cities began imposing mandates.According to the study, in nursing homes overall, 61 percent of nurses, both registered nurses and licensed practical nurses, were vaccinated, compared with 71 percent of therapists and 77 percent of doctors and independent practitioners like physician assistants or nurse practitioners.Some large nursing homes were starting to mandate vaccinationsas the Delta variant began tearing through their communities and coming into nursing homes. Genesis HealthCare, one of the nation’s largest nursing-home operators, required vaccinations in August and said it had “met our deadline of 100 percent vaccinated staff, as promised — excluding the small number of individuals who received medical or religious exemptions.”

The unvaccinated are declaring themselves ‘Purebloods’ - Some anti-vaxxers have proclaimed themselves “Purebloods” in a campaign of biological supremacy against those who received the COVID-19 vaccine.“From now on, I refuse to be referred to as ‘unvaccinated,’” said conservative influencer Lyndsey Marie in a post last week. “I want everyone to now call me Pureblood.”Her hashtags included #harrypotter, #pureblood and #unvaccinated.Marie is most likely referring to a term more recently popularized by the “Harry Potter” series, which saw wizards and warlocks with the most magical progeny assigned as “purebloods” or “half-bloods” — as opposed to “muggles,” mere humans who practice magic. Unvaccinated TikTokker Lyndsey Marie is urging like-minded followers to call themselves “pureblood” and promised merchandise emblazoned with the term.TikTokMarie’s video has since racked up more than 396,000 views as she’s also promised followers a new line of merchandise emblazoned with “PUREBLOOD; Unmasked, Unvaxxed, Unafraid.” But a few users latched on to Marie’s movement.“In like five, 10 years, maybe less, all the people who are unvaccinated — we’re gonna be hunted,” warned TikTokker @Leeannstar23, according to a Vice News story published Wednesday. “ It’s gonna be like ‘Resident Evil.’ We’re gonna be the antidote, because everyone else is fucked, and we’re gonna be the only ones with pure blood,” they suggested.The term is gaining steam elsewhere on social media. “Pureblood Patriots. Listen to me. The Great State of Mississippi will fight this discrimination. We welcome you all,” announced one self-appointed state spokesperson. More than 63% of Americans have received at least one dose of the coronavirus vaccine, according to the Centers for Disease Control COVID Data Tracker. That leaves a cohort of more than 36% so-called “purebloods.”

How a rogue doctor who called the vaccine 'needle rape' was made an Idaho public-health official in its worst COVID crisis yet - In Boise, Idaho, a doctor in a lab coat offered comforting words to concerned parents and school governors about COVID-19 restrictions for the new semester. "There's really statistically no efficacy in masks," Dr. Ryan Cole said airily, and incorrectly, on an August 26 Zoom call with Peace Valley Charter School, which was deciding what measures to implement when lessons restarted. "I think we need to be prudent and say it's time to let children be children," Cole said. Cole's specialism is dermopathology — a discipline focused on diseases of the skin which has little relevance to respiratory conditions like COVID-19. Nonetheless, Cole is a celebrated figure among anti-vaxxers. He made headlines in July by calling the vaccine the "clot shot" and "needle rape" in a presentation to America's Frontline Doctors (AFD), a group known for COVID-19 misinformation. By the end of the Peace Valley school meeting, the board had scrapped its plan for a mask mandate, as the Idaho Statesman reported. Across the state, cases were surging. With just 39% of the state fully vaccinated — one of the lowest rates in the country — hundreds of people needed hospital treatment, stretching the system to its limits. Two weeks later, that system broke. Ten of the state's hospitals were put under crisis protocols, under which patients are told they may get care below the usual minimum standard, like being treated in makeshift wards or without proper equipment. On the same day, Idaho's largest public health board, the Central District Board of Health (CDH) announced that Cole would become its seventh member. According to campaigners and former officials in Idaho who spoke to Insider, Cole's elevation demonstrates how the state's public health apparatus was stripped back and politicized as the pandemic rages. The CDH is Idaho's biggest health authority, covering Ada, Boise, Elmore, and Valley counties. Its board is elected by 12 commissioners, three from each county. Cole made it onto the board thanks to a backlash against CDH restrictions which propelled coronavirus skeptics into positions of power. Opposition to Cole's appointment came from the Idaho Medical Association, several of the state's medical experts, the editorial board of the Idaho Statesman, and local campaigners — but ultimately achieved little.

Gottlieb: CDC hampered U.S. response to COVID --The CDC moved too slowly at several points in the coronavirus pandemic, ultimately hindering the U.S. response, former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb writes in a new book, Uncontrolled Spread. The book argues that American intelligence agencies should have a much bigger role in pandemic preparedness, even if that's sometimes at the expense of public health agencies like the CDC. "Typically, security agencies have viewed the CDC as 'having this mission' or 'having the ball on this.' Clearly they don't," Gottlieb told Axios. The CDC initially recommended 10 feet of social distancing, but officials in the Trump administration pushed the agency to reduce that to six feet — which still required many schools to stay closed. "If that had gotten out at the time, everyone would had said 'Oh my God. It's White House interference in the CDC.' But the White House was right to oppose it. It was arbitrary and it couldn't be implemented," Gottlieb said. "That was the single costliest recommendation the CDC issued during this whole pandemic," he said. Under the Biden administration, the CDC finally reduced social distancing recommendations to three feet — based on data that had been available for six months. Better intelligence at the beginning of an outbreak would also help the U.S. swing into action more quickly, Gottlieb writes. "We need to have human assets in the medical community so we understand when an outbreak emerges," he said. "We need to have the capability of monitoring typical streams of intelligence, like signals intelligence and maybe even satellite intelligence, looking for things that could be trip wires for an outbreak of disease." Gottlieb confirms that some Trump administration officials had an "attitude of emphatic nonchalance about the pandemic, often mocking personal precautions as marks of weakness, taunting colleagues who wore masks."Gottlieb said he told Trump not to pull the U.S. out of the World Health Organization, but also criticized the Biden administration's "hasty" return to WHO without certain conditions attached.

Finally, A Randomized Trial of Mask Wearing - As COVID-19 cases surge once again and vaccination rates remain stubbornly low, policymakers are returning to other measures to stop the spread of this relentless virus. In late July, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended indoor masking for fully vaccinated people in areas with high community spread and universal masking in all educational settings. This led many states and local governments to reinstitute mask mandates, creating inflamed battles at school boardand city council meetings.The body of evidence underlying these policy decisions has consisted largely of observational studies, which often lack the strength of randomized trials because those who choose to wear masks on their own or states that adopt stricter measures are likely fundamentally different than those who do not. A new study published in an Innovations for Poverty Action working paper gets around this by using a randomized intervention designed to increase mask wearing, allowing us to see what happens when more people do.A large team of international collaborators conducted this randomized trial in rural Bangladesh from November 2020 to April 2021, covering 600 villages with over 340,000 adults. The intervention, known as the NORM model, included 1) free masks (1/3 cloth, 2/3 surgical), 2) instructions on how to wear them, 3) in-community mask promoters and 4) endorsement by religious leaders for randomly selected villages. The control villages received none of those things, though they were not prevented from wearing masks on their own.The researchers found the intervention tripled the level of mask wearing and, in turn, led to decreases in both self-reported COVID symptoms (-11.9%) and symptomatic seroprevalence, or the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the blood of symptomatic people (-9.3%), in the treatment villages relative to the control villages. The effects of the intervention held over a 10-week period, but waned in the months after the study ended as mask wearing declined.The study also weighed in on two other hotly debated questions about masks. First, the intervention increased physical distancing by 5 percentage points (24.1% versus 29.2%), countering concerns that increased mask wearing may lead to more risky social behavior. Second, the study provided suggestive evidence that surgical masks may be more effective in the real world at reducing COVID-19 spread than cloth masks, building upon prior lab-based studies.

Texas girl, 4, dies of COVID-19 after being infected by anti-vax mom - A 4-year-old Texas girl has died of COVID-19 — which she likely contracted from her mom, a staunch anti-vaxxer, the grieving parent said.Little Kali Cook died in her sleep at home in Bacliff on Tuesday, just five hours after she woke in the early hours with the first signs of a fever, mom Karra Harwood told local media.“Kali was perfectly fine, and then she was gone,” the shattered mother told the Houston Chronicle. “It took her so fast.”Harwood said she had tested positive the previous day, with her and her fiancé, William Tucker, already out of work because they were sick and quarantining at home.“I tried to stay away from her and didn’t want her and my other kids to get it,” she told the Galveston County Daily News of Kali and her brother and 5-month-old sister, both of whom also got infected.The mom admitted that she now regrets opposing COVID-19 vaccines. In Texas, the vaccination rate is just a fraction over 50 percent, Johns Hopkins University data shows.“I was one of the people that was anti, I was against it,” she told her local paper of the shots.“Now, I wish I never was,” she admitted.Kali was the first child to have died of COVID-19 in Galveston County during the pandemic, which has seen nearly 50,000 confirmed cases and more than 470 other deaths there, according to local health officials.“This is a terrible thing, but I think people need to know about it,” area health official Philip Keiser told the Galveston County Daily News of the youngster’s death.

Six unvaccinated members of Florida family die of COVID-19 - In just three weeks, six unvaccinated members of a Florida family died after contracting COVID-19. After attending the funeral for 48-year-old family member Tyrone Moreland, 89-year-old grandmother Lillie Mae Dukes Moreland was hospitalized with the virus and died just 24 hours later, according to The Palm Beach Post. Three more cousins died shortly after their grandmother, and the family's most recent loss was 44-year-old Trentarian Moreland, who died on Sunday. Surviving family member Lisa Wilson said she believes she can trace at least two of the family's deaths to a food pantry where her relatives had worked, but she is unsure where the others contracted the virus, the Post reported. Wilson had spent weeks going door to door in Belle Glade, Fla., encouraging people to get vaccinated. She had unsuccessfully attempted to persuade her family members to get vaccinated prior to their deaths. “I was in their ears almost every day. 'You’ve just got to do this,'” Wilson said to the Post. “I’m beating myself up. Should I have pushed harder?” More than 65 percent of Floridians are vaccinated, and death rates and the spread of the virus have begun to decline in the state after a brutal August, according to weekly COVID-19 data from Florida's Department of Health.

Five children orphaned after parents die of COVID-19 in California’s Inland Empire - Five young children from Yucaipa, California, were orphaned in late August when their parents, Davy and Daniel Macias, died from COVID-19 after going on a family vacation that left the whole family infected. Davy Macias, a 37-year-old labor and delivery nurse, was seven months pregnant with their fifth child, a girl, who has yet to be named. Although the children recovered quickly from their COVID-19 infections, Davy’s condition continued to deteriorate, and she was eventually admitted to the hospital soon after. Not even a week later, Daniel, 39 years old, was also admitted. On August 18, Davy—already intubated—gave birth to her daughter by emergency Caesarean section. She died eight days later, and Daniel passed away the week after. Davy would never get to see or hold her newborn. Daniel would only be able to glimpse his daughter before succumbing to COVID-19 and never even knew that his wife had died, despite only being a few rooms away from her. They died before being able to name their daughter. Terry Seri, Daniel Macias’s sister-in-law, recounts how tight-knit the young family was, saying about Davy and Daniel, “Their hobby was their kids.” The children, the eldest only seven years old, have gone to live with their grandparents, with Terry noting that they “spend a lot of time at night looking for mom and dad.” Davy, who worked for Kaiser Permanente’s Fontana Medical Center, was not vaccinated due to her concerns of how it might affect her pregnancy. Daniel was a math and AVID (Advancement Via Individual Determination) school teacher at Jehue Middle School. It is not known whether he was vaccinated. Their tragedy is representative of thousands of frontline workers who have died as a result of contracting COVID-19. What’s more, the number of pregnant women who have died from COVID-19 has increased in recent months with the spread of the Delta variant. Only on August 11 did the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) strongly recommend that pregnant women get the vaccine. Numerous families have attested that their deceased pregnant loved ones had intended to receive the vaccine after giving birth. On August 20, Alabama mother Haley Richardson, a 32-year-old nurse from Pensacola, Florida, died from COVID-19 two days after her unborn baby had also passed away from the virus. Like Davy, she was concerned that the vaccine might harm her pregnancy and opted not to get it. Just this week, Hawaii recorded its first maternal death due to COVID-19 on September 14. Due to privacy laws, the mother’s vaccination status has not been revealed. Dr. Stacy Tsai of the Hawaii State Maternal Mortality Review Committee stated, “We are seeing women getting COVID during pregnancy and becoming so sick that we are having to deliver preterm or premature in order to help them breathe ... better.”

Dying at home, lack of healthcare contribute to COVID’s hidden death toll - The official US death count for COVID-19 has now surpassed 650,000, but the true death toll is likely much higher. Recent research indicates that approximately20 percent of excess deaths—i.e. the number of all-cause deaths beyond what would have been expected in a normal year—were not reflected in COVID-19 death totals in 2020. These excess deaths include mortality that was directly caused by COVID-19 or indirectly caused by social or economic consequences of the pandemic.Now, a new study from Boston University School of Public Health (BUSPH) and the University of Pennsylvania (Penn) has identified healthcare factors associated with excess deaths that have not been assigned to COVID-19 at the county level across the US.Published in the journal JAMA Network Open, the study found that a greater proportion of excess deaths not reflected in COVID-19 death counts occurred in counties with reduced access to health insurance and primary care services, as well as in counties with more deaths that occurred at home.“In the context of COVID, inaccuracies in cause of death ascertainment have hidden the true scale of the pandemic and its vastly uneven impact across communities. In the present study, we find that discrepancies between official COVID death tallies and excess mortality estimates were especially severe in areas with poor health care access and more at-home deaths. “These differences suggest an urgent need to increase funding and support for the U.S. medicolegal death investigation system, which is often involved in certifying home deaths,” Stokes says.The study builds upon earlier findings by the researchers, who found that excess deaths not directly attributed to COVID-19 were higher in counties with lower socioeconomic status and less formal education, as well as in counties located in the South and West, and counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents. In the JAMA Network Open study, Stokes and colleagues used publicly available data from the National Center for Health Statistics, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the US Census Bureau to compare the percentage of excess deaths not attributed to COVID in 2,096 counties in 2020 with county-level information on residents’ access to healthcare and locations in which excess deaths occurred.In counties with more uninsured residents, the percentage of excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19 was higher than in counties with fewer uninsured residents. Similarly, the percentage was also higher in counties with fewer primary care physicians per capita.

Hospitals in Washington State, already strained, are taking on Covid patients from Idaho. - In Idaho, where unchecked virus transmission has pushed hospitals beyond their breaking point, the state is sending some Covid-19 patients to neighboring Washington State.But Washington hospitals are struggling with their own high caseloads, and some leaders in the state see Idaho’s outsourcing of Covid patients as a troubling example of how the failure to aggressively confront the virus in one state can deepen a crisis in another.On the Washington side of the border, residents must wear masks when gathering indoors, students who are exposed to Covid face quarantine requirements, and many workers are under vaccination orders. On the Idaho side, none of those precautions are in place.Last week, Idaho took the extraordinary step of moving its hospitals in the northern part of the state to crisis standards of care — the threshold at which facilities facing overwhelming caseloads are authorized to ration their resources.Idaho now has more than 600 patients hospitalized with Covid-19,about 20 percent higher than a previous peak in December. Only 40 percent of the state’s residents are fully vaccinated, one of the lowest rates in the nation, compared with 61 percent in Washington State, one of the highest.The strain on health care facilities is particularly evident in northern Idaho, where the vaccination rate is even lower. The area just hosted the North Idaho State Fair, and in a region where there is deep wariness of government, no mask orders or other strategies were adopted to halt the spread of the virus.With the Delta strain of the virus sweeping the nation, Washington State has faced its own challenges and record hospitalizations, especially in areas on the eastern side of the state where vaccination rates are lower. This week, that state, too, began talking openly about the possibility that crisis standards of carecould become necessary.

A small upstate New York hospital will stop delivering babies after 6 workers quit rather than be vaccinated. - A small hospital in upstate New York is planning to suspend delivering babies starting in a few weeks because some of its labor and delivery nurses resigned rather than comply with the state’s Covid vaccine mandate.The development underscores the challenges that many health care systems face amid a national shortage of nursing staff and vaccine hesitancy among some health care workers.“The math is just not working,” said Gerald Cayer, chief executive officer of Lewis County Health System, at a news conference on Friday. “The number of resignations received leaves us no choice but to pause delivering babies.”Six out of the 18 staff members in the maternity department at Lewis County General Hospital have resigned, and seven have not indicated whether they will get their shots, Mr. Cayer said in an interview on Monday. The hospital, located in Lowville, the county seat, had expected to deliver about 200 babies this year, he added.At least 30 employees in the health system have resigned sinceformer Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo mandated vaccinations by Sept. 27 for New York State’s health care workers, Mr. Cayer said. Of those who have resigned, 21 worked in clinical areas.The maternity department at Lewis County General will pause deliveries on Sept. 25, Mr. Cayer said, and other units could be affected if more workers resign. Prospective parents in the area will have other options: There are hospitals with maternity departments in Carthage, about 15 miles from Lowville, and in Watertown, about 27 miles away.The vast majority of workers in his health system have complied with the mandate. Mr. Cayer said that 464 employees, or 73 percent, have been fully vaccinated, and that he hoped that the staff members who quit would reconsider and take the shots before the deadline. “Anyone who has resigned who changes their mind will be welcomed back,” he said.The resignations have taken place in a region with a dire staffing shortage. There has been a lack of experienced maternity nursing staff throughout upstate New York, said Dr. Sean Harney, the hospital’s medical director. Thousands of open nursing positions remain, Mr. Cayer said. Lewis County, with about 27,000 residents, is among the least populous and most politically conservative counties in the state, and has one of the lowest Covid vaccination rates: 44 percent of residents were fully vaccinated as of Friday, compared with 61 percent statewide, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Reports of new cases more than doubled in Lewis County, and hospitalizations rose 35 percent in the past 14 days, according to aNew York Times database.

Alabama cardiac arrest patient dies after being denied admission to 43 hospitals at capacity due to COVID-19 surge - Earlier this month, Ray Martin DeMonia, an Alabama antiques dealer, died from cardiac arrest after being turned away by 43 hospitals due to lack of space in their intensive care units (ICUs), which have been filled with COVID-19 patients. DeMonia, 73, from Cullman, Alabama, had to be airlifted to a hospital in Meridian, Mississippi, about 200 miles from his home. There were no hospitals closer with a free ICU bed to take him due to a surge of COVID hospitalizations in the region. DeMonia died shortly after arrival at the hospital in Meridian due to complications from the cardiac arrest event. In writing DeMonia’s obituary, his family made a plea for increased vaccinations: “In honor of Ray, please get vaccinated if you have not, in an effort to free up resources for non COVID related emergencies,” the obituary read. “Due to COVID 19, CRMC emergency staff contacted 43 hospitals in 3 states in search of a Cardiac ICU bed and finally located one in Meridian, MS. He would not want any other family to go through what his did.” DeMonia, who was vaccinated against COVID-19, is one of many who have died as an indirect cause of the pandemic, which is surging in Alabama following homicidal school and workplace reopenings. Alabama’s vaccination rate is the second worst in the nation, with just over 49 percent of adults fully vaccinated. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the state of Alabama has been experiencing some of the highest surges of COVID-19 cases in the country, with 541 cases per 100,000 people per week and just over 250 deaths reported in the last seven days. While particularly grim, the situation in Alabama is part of an ongoing problem across the nation as hospitals are once again being overwhelmed with an influx of COVID-19 patients in need of intense care, taking up beds which would otherwise be used for other critical care patients. Approximately 100,000 hospital beds nationwide are filled with COVID-19 patients, and an average of 1,349 people are dying every day. The latest surge of the pandemic has forced some states to enact rarely used “crisis standard of care” because of recent surges. More than 10 states have already reached their limits for hospital admissions, and many are breaking records for highest number of admissions numbers. While guidelines for crisis standards can vary state to state, the result when enacted is to ration care based on the limited availability of beds, staff and resources, meaning many patients will not be treated as effectively as possible. Crisis standards allow hospitals more freedom to allocate resources based on what is needed most, and in some extreme cases such as when a patient is on the verge of death, it could mean those patients are not given ICU beds; enacting these standards also provides legal protection to doctors in case of litigation.

A Georgia hospital that's stretched beyond capacity with COVID-19 patients has asked for help from firefighters and the sheriff's office A hospital in Georgia that's full beyond capacity with COVID-19 patients could soon turn to local firefighters for help. AdventHealth Gordon hospital in Calhoun, Georgia, has 69 beds but more than 100 patients, most of whom have COVID-19, according to officials. Jim Ledbetter, county administrator at Gordon County, Georgia, said that the workforce at the hospital was "stretched pretty thin" and that staff were "pretty tired," the Chattanooga Free Press reported on Thursday. "The hospital came to us for help and we decided to do what we can," Ledbetter said. Ledbetter said that local firefighters and people working for the sheriff's office had already expressed interest in working at the hospital, the Chattanooga Free Press reported. Anyone working voluntary extra shifts at the hospital would be paid, and would need to be fully-vaccinated, Ledbetter said, per the report. There would be a mandatory 12-hour break between county and hospital shifts, Ledbetter said. Ledbetter said volunteers would only provide medical care under supervision of a nurse or doctor. "People's nerves have been frayed with the pandemic and they don't always want to mask. Some people have been getting testy about that, so that's something our police could help with that would take a lot of stress off hospital staff," he said, as reported by Chattanooga Free Press. Gordon County has 74.9 new daily cases per 100,000 people, according to Covid Act Now, which uses data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the US Department of Health and Human Services. Georgia as a whole has 67.1 daily new cases per 100,000. The county has fully-vaccinated 38% of its population, according to Covid Act Now. The US average is 53.8%.

Covid Hospitalizations Hit Crisis Levels in Southern I.C.U.s - Hospitals in the southern United States are running dangerously low on space in intensive care units, as the Delta variant has led to spikes in coronavirus cases not seen since last year’s deadly winter wave.One in four hospitals now reports more than 95 percent of I.C.U. beds occupied — up from one in five last month. Experts say it can become difficult to maintain standards of care for the sickest patients in hospitals where all or nearly all I.C.U. beds are occupied. In June, when Covid-19 cases were at their lowest level, less than one in 10 hospitals had dangerously high occupancy rates. .In Alabama, all I.C.U. beds are currently occupied. In recent days, dozens of patients in the state have needed beds that were not available, according to data published by the Department of Health and Human Services.“It means they’re in the waiting room, some are in the back of ambulances, things of that nature,” said Jeannie Gaines, a spokesperson for the Alabama Hospital Association.In Texas, 169 hospitals have I.C.U.s that are more than 95 percent full, up from 69 in June. There are only about 700 intensive care beds remaining across the entire state, according to recent data.Hospitals in Houston constructed overflow tents last month to handle the influx of patients, and the rate of hospitalizations in the state is now 40 percent higher than when the tents were built.Twenty-four hospitals in Florida reported having more I.C.U. patients last week than available beds.During past surges, hospitals have been forced to improvise by having staff care for more patients than usual or by setting up temporary intensive care beds in other wings of the hospital.Patients with critical conditions besides Covid, like heart attacks or strokes, can also have worse health outcomes when most beds are full. Unvaccinated Americans are 10 times more likely to be hospitalized with Covid than the vaccinated, according to a recent study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Several of the states with the highest rates of I.C.U. occupancy, including Alabama and Mississippi, are also among those with the lowest vaccination rates. Hospitalizations among children under 18 are also higher than everduring this wave of the virus, driven largely by surges among children in the least vaccinated states.

Alaska E.R. patients are waiting hours in vehicles as a major hospital rations care. - Alaska’s largest hospital announced Tuesday that a relentless coronavirus outbreak driven by the highly contagious Delta virus variant has left emergency room patients waiting hours in their vehicles and forced medical teams to ration care.At Providence Alaska Medical Center in Anchorage, the hospital said it was now operating under “crisis standards of care” — procedures put in place to prioritize resources in a way that may leave some patients with substandard care.Alaska, where 60 percent of adults are fully vaccinated, is just o ne state among many where the Delta variant has run rampant, straining hospitals to their breaking points. Last week, Idahoannounced that medical centers in the northern part of its state would move to crisis standards of care. In Alabama, all I.C.U. beds are occupied, as hospitals in Southern states run dangerously low on space in intensive care units.In Mississippi, where 51 percent of adults are fully vaccinated, state officials tried to outsource “I.C.U.-level-care patients” to Kentucky. And in North Dakota, an executive at the state’s largest health care system said it could use as many as 300 additional nurses to help treat Covid-19 patients.In Anchorage, Dr. Kristen Solana Walkinshaw, a senior leader at the Providence hospital, wrote in a message to the community that the hospital did not have the necessary staff, space or beds to keep pace with demand.“Due to this scarcity, we are unable to provide lifesaving care to everyone who needs it,” Dr. Solana Walkinshaw wrote.The hospital said that with an emergency room overflowing, patients have to wait in their cars for hours to see a physician for emergency care. Elective surgeries continue to be postponed. Dr. Solana Walkinshaw said rationing care may include dialysis and “specialized ventilatory support.”Providence Alaska Medical Center is a critical hub for patients from all over the state, serving as the destination for many people who need a higher level of care that can’t be provided in their home communities. Dr. Solana Walkinshaw said the hospital has been unable to accept patients from other facilities.

Outbreaks at factories and workplaces fuel COVID-19 surge in the US - While barely reported by the US news media, COVID-19 outbreaks in manufacturing, construction sites and other workplaces are a major driving force for the surge of infections and deaths in the United States. Fueled by the Delta variant, the pandemic is once again spreading out of control in the US. Total cases have surpassed 41 million, with more than 670,000 officially recorded COVID deaths. The seven-day average of hospitalizations jumped to 99,879 on September 12, with an average daily death toll of 1,648, up 27 percent over the last two weeks alone. While there is no national record-keeping for workplace outbreaks and many states do not report details on outbreak locations, the reports that are available show that manufacturing and construction sites, along with K-12 schools and long-term care facilities, regularly exchange positions as the top three settings for spreading the virus. On Monday, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services reported that there were 43 ongoing outbreaks at manufacturing and construction sites in the state. This was second only to long-term care facilities (70) and just ahead of schools (42). Twenty of the outbreaks were in the metropolitan Detroit counties, the center of the auto industry. New outbreaks last week were centered in Michigan schools (67), as students were sent back to classes so parents could be sent back to work, particularly at auto factories, where executives have complained of high absentee rates due to COVID-19 and childcare concerns. In Illinois, there have been 206 outbreaks at factories and manufacturers since July 1, accounting for 14.2 percent of the total and the highest of any location. In Cook County, which includes Chicago and its industrial suburbs, there have been 56 outbreaks over the last 2 1/2 months, accounting for 32.6 percent of the total. In California, workplace outbreaks more than doubled between June and July, from 217 to 459. The most outbreaks since the beginning of the year (69) were in the agricultural sector, where migrant workers who harvest crops are packed into busses and dormitories.

What role did the Sturgis Rally play in South Dakota’s outbreak? - Daily reports of new coronavirus cases grew tenfold in South Dakota in August, with the worst outbreaks concentrated in the western part of the state. Hospitalizations have increased swiftly in the last few weeks. National Guard soldiers were dispatched to aid with testing.The increase came during and after the state’s annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, which drew more than 550,000 people from all over the country to South Dakota — even more than last year’s, which forged ahead while most large events were canceled. This year’s happened during a broad spread of the Delta variant that drove a spike in all 50 states.Uncertain, experts said, was the role the rally may have had in spreading the virus in South Dakota. And unanswered was a larger question: How safe are major gatherings held at least partly outdoors — events like Sturgis, Lollapalooza and college football games.Cases in Meade County, which includes Sturgis, began to rise in mid-August, just as the motorcycle rally was winding down. By the end of August, more than 30 county residents were testing positive most days, up from about one a day before the rally. Case levels have since started to decline. But the vast majority of people at the rally came from elsewhere and, if they became infected, would be counted in the data in their home states. Outdoor events are far safer than those held in indoor, poorly ventilated spaces. But even gatherings where the main event is outside can include indoor opportunities for Covid to spread.Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, said it may be too early to link the Delta variant surge that’s overwhelming hospitals and increasing case level to large outdoor events, including the rally in Sturgis.“I haven’t seen any data so far that says outdoor gatherings themselves are pretty risky,” said Dr. Jha. “And what I’ve said about Sturgis is, I don’t think it was the rally itself, I think it was all the bars and restaurants and all the stuff and night and evenings and all the indoor stuff.”Local officials in Sturgis have pushed back against the scrutiny of the event, saying the rally has received unequal criticism compared to other large gatherings across the country.“As the data illustrates, South Dakota’s current infection rate is mirroring the entire upper Midwest region,” said Dan Ainslie, the Sturgis city manager. “There was some spread of Covid from the rally, though the national media fixation on it is without merit given the fact that our experience is so similar to our neighbors.”

Coronavirus dashboard for September 13: on the downside of the Delta wave, vaccinations make all the difference - With each passing day, it becomes increasingly likely that the peak of the Delta wave was just before Labor Day. We’ll probably get a pop in the weekly average number tomorrow, as today’s numbers replace the Labor Day holiday numbers, but unless there is a big surprise, it appears we are into the downside of the wave. But we are still on the upside when it comes to deaths, which probably won’t peak for another week or two. Below are cases (solid line) and deaths (dotted line) for the past year: The winter wave peaked at an average of 250,000 cases and 3,500 deaths/day. If that ratio exists for this wave, deaths will peak at roughly 2400/day. But at the June trough, there were 11,300 cases and 218 deaths. Cases increased over 14x to their peak. If deaths do the same, their peak will be just over 3,000/day – at some point by the end of this month. So the next couple of weeks are going to look pretty grim as to deaths, and it’s already baked in the cake. More evidence that we are on the downside of the wave for cases comes when we examine what is happening with the first hard-hit States, shown in bold in the graph below: It is very clear that in all cases except for Wyoming, the wave has peaked, and in some cases, the decline is already precipitous. Wyoming is something of an exception because it never really got below 10 cases per 100,000/day, even in June. Meanwhile, the benefit of vaccinations is extremely clear in the State-by-State evidence. Here are the 10 least vaccinated States: These States make up the vast majority of the worst-performing States for infections during the Delta wave. At the other end of the scale, here are the 10 most vaccinated jurisdictions: With the exception of Hawaii (not sure what happened there), these States and Puerto Rico are the best-performing of all the US jurisdictions. Vaccinations work! I anticipate paying particular attention to all of the northern US States in the coming several months, to see if the cooler weather increases Delta’s footprint there, and if so to contrast the extremely well vaccinated New England States with the extremely poorly vaccinated States of the northern Plains and Mountain West.

 September 14th COVID-19: Almost 1 Million Doses per Day - The CDC is the source for all data. According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 381,453,265, as of a week ago 374,488,924. Average doses last week: 0.99 million per day. For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID). This is all from the CDC - state data may differ! 11 states have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 68.7%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland. New Jersey, Washington, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire at 60.7%.The following 15 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Oregon at 59.3%, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, South Dakota, and Kentucky at 50.2%. Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Arizona at 49.8%, Kansas at 49.7%, Ohio at 49.3%, Nevada at 49.3%, Texas at 49.2%, Utah at 48.9% and Alaska at 48.5%. This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

ICUs across the United States stretched to capacity by COVID-19 Delta variant surge -The Delta wave of the pandemic has left an immense hidden trail of devastation stemming from a complete abandonment of or inability of local and state public health departments to provide a timely and accurate statistical accounting of the number of cases and deaths. The actual toll of the pandemic becomes guesswork pieced together by daily reports from health systems to their respective states. However, the limited data available to the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) demonstrates that intensive care unit (ICU) capacity across many healthcare systems in the Southeast, Midwest, the South, specifically Texas, and the Southwest, including California, has exceeded 95 percent. According to the New York Times, “One in four hospitals are now reporting more than 95 percent of ICU beds occupied, up from one in five last month.” The latest metrics from the HHS website on hospital utilization indicates that out of 84,513 staffed ICU beds in the country, 67,175, or approximately 80 percent, are in use. Almost 31 percent of these beds are being occupied by patients admitted for COVID-19. The tragic death of Ray Martin DeMonia, a Cullman, Alabama antiques dealer, in Meridian, Mississippi, from a heart attack earlier this month, may seem anecdotal but depicts in glaring reality the consequences to the population when health care systems become inundated by an entirely preventable disease. DeMonia was turned away from 43 hospitals across three states because their ICUs were full. The nearest available bed was 200 miles away at Rush Foundation Hospital. Delay in care, in this case, led to his untimely death. A heart attack need not be fatal nor debilitating. Rapid intervention that allows the reopening of a blocked coronary artery can restore oxygenated blood to the heart muscle and prevent the tissue from dying. If the blockage persists for five or six hours, a significant portion of the heart muscle can fail, and acute heart failure can occur with the heart attack leading to a dangerous combination. After twelve hours, the damage is irreversible. Additionally, dangerous heart rhythms can be generated that make the remaining heart work inefficiently. The care of patients in ICUs is labor-intensive. It requires a tremendous investment in resources that include highly trained specialists—a cadre of nurses, physicians, therapists—and a sundry of complex equipment used to treat patients. Additionally, interventional radiological suites, blood banks, laboratories, and pharmacies must work together intimately to allow the hospital services to function efficiently. However, when these systems reach capacity, the ability to care, treat, and respond immediately to a medical emergency is compromised. Instead of nurses caring for one patient, they may be assigned three or four patients in their extended shifts. Non-ICU staff is utilized who are unfamiliar with the processes or do not know how to respond to critical results. Patients must be monitored in busy emergency rooms or makeshift units lacking the necessary support systems. A sustained surge in sick patients also means that essential procedures or operations must be suspended. Patients with life-threatening illnesses have to cope until health systems can return to routine operations. But as the current surge of COVID-19 impacts younger patients, ICU stays are more extended. The state of siege under which the hospitals operate runs into weeks, which can be a matter of life and death for patients who desperately need urgent comprehensive medical attention. They also take an incredible toll on the mental well-being of the staff, who feel they are perpetually working over an assembly line of severly ill patients.

The U.S. virus surge appears to be declining in some states, but deaths are still increasing. New coronavirus cases and Covid hospitalizations across the United States have started to show signs of decline, although they remain far higher than they were earlier in the summer, and the number of new deaths is still increasing.As the Delta variant has ripped through unvaccinated communities, reports of new deaths have reached an average of more than 1,900 a day, up nearly 30 percent in the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database. Approximately one in every 500 Americans has died from the disease.The pace of vaccinations remains relatively sluggish, with 64 percent of eligible people in the United States fully vaccinated, according to federal data. (No shots have been federally authorized for children younger than 12.)Vaccination remains powerfully protective against severe illness and hospitalization because of Covid-19 in the vast majority of people in all of the studies published so far, experts say. Health officials say that most of the patients who are being hospitalized and dying are not vaccinated, while areas with higher rates of vaccination have generally fared better. Over the summer, masks were recommended indoors for everyone, regardless of vaccination status, in virus hot spots and in schools across the country.Some states have seen their hospital intensive-care wards become overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients, and have called in National Guard help or sett up overflow units in parking lots. Idaho officials activated on Thursday “crisis standards of care,” meaning that hospitals can ration treatment if necessary.Across the country, one in four U.S. hospitals reported that more than 95 percent of intensive care beds were occupied as of the week ending Sept. 9, up from one in five in August. Experts say that hospitals could struggle to maintain standards of care for the sickest patients when all or nearly all I.C.U. beds are occupied.

September 15th COVID-19: 2,000 Deaths Reported Today, Most since February - The CDC is the source for all data. The 7-day average deaths is the highest since March 2nd. According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 382,294,795, as of a week ago 376,955,132. Average doses last week: 0.76 million per day. COVID Metrics (see tables) : For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID). This is all from the CDC - state data may differ! 11 states have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 68.7%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland. New Jersey, Washington, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire at 60.8%. The following 15 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Oregon at 59.4%, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, South Dakota, and Kentucky at 50.3%. Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Arizona at 49.9%, Kansas at 49.8%, Ohio at 49.4%, Nevada at 49.4%, Texas at 49.4%, Utah at 49.0% and Alaska at
This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

 Idaho allows overwhelmed hospitals across the state to ration care if necessary. - With its hospitals struggling to cope with a flood of patients, Idaho officials activated “crisis standards of care” across the state on Thursday, allowing overwhelmed facilities to ration treatment if needed. “The situation is dire — we don’t have enough resources to adequately treat the patients in our hospitals, whether you are there for Covid-19 or a heart attack or because of a car accident,” Dave Jeppesen, the director of the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, said in a statement. Crisis standards of care lay out guidelines for hospitals to follow when they cannot meet demand and must ration services. Idaho officials noted that patients may find themselves being treated in repurposed rooms, or that needed equipment is not available. Some patients may have to wait for beds to become available. If the situation worsens, rationing could get more drastic, with hospitals having to decide which patients will get priority for limited supplies of oxygen or ventilators, potentially sending some patients with a low likelihood of survival to palliative care. Though states around the country have prepared plans for how to allocate critical resources in a crisis during the pandemic, few have formally implemented such plans even when hospitalizations have soared. Alaska’s largest hospital said this week that it was operating under crisis standards, and that some emergency-room patients had to wait in their vehicles for hours to be seen by a physician. One in four hospitals across the country reports that more than 95 percent of its intensive care beds were occupied as of the week ending Sept. 9, up from one in five hospitals last month. Experts say hospitals may have difficulty maintaining standards of care for the sickest patients when all or nearly all I.C.U. beds are occupied.

Over 8,400 new COVID-19 cases reported in Ohio Friday — Over 8,400 new coronavirus cases and over 300 new hospitalizations were reported in Ohio Friday.The Ohio Department of Health reported 8,447 new cases, 307 more hospitalizations, and 206 additional deaths.The 21-day average is now 6,349.There have been 1,336,061 cases, 69,729 hospitalizations, and 21,471 deaths in Ohio since the start of the pandemic.As of Sept. 16, 1,184,287 people were listed as recovered. Recovered is categorized as cases with a symptom onset date of over 21 days who have not died.53.22% of Ohioans have received at least their first dose as of Sept. 17. 49.24% are fully vaccinated.

COVID-19: ICU beds at 101% of capacity in Cincinnati region hospitals - The 513 intensive care beds in the Cincinnati region's hospitals are full,with COVID-19 patients now making up roughly 1 in 3 ICU patients. That's near the upper range of the level that health officials describe as "critical operations, 'all hands on deck', greatest good provided to the greatest number of patients."The problem for the 40 hospitals isn't limited to pressure on the number of beds and other facilities, but the strain that having so many critically ill patients puts on hospital workers. More than 100 COVID-19 patients in the hospitals are on ventilators, each one needing a worker to monitor and operate that ventilator.The information about hospital bed space comes from the Health Collaborative, a coalition of the six hospital systems in the Cincinnati area. The ICU crunch comes as pandemic cases in the region are at their highest levels since late January, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 tracking project. See a chart of rates of new COVID-19 cases in the last seven days by county at the end of this story.All indicators on the novel coronavirus' grip on the region "continue to move in the wrong direction," the collaborative said in a statement Friday. The rate of new cases in the region rose 12.7% this week to 62 new cases per 100,000 people per day. The new cases are most prevalent among those under age 40."The hospitals are looking at their beds and their staffing every day," said Tiffany Mattingly, vice president, clinical strategies for the Health Collaborative. Staffing, she added, is "very fluid," changing based on quarantined staff, people who call off sick and other variables.Patients are still getting safe and needed care, she said, but there is an extreme strain on staffing and some tasks that aren't immediately essential (such as getting a patient a warm blanket) may take more time to complete or are omitted. The ICUs had been operating at normal levels as recently as late July, the data from the Health Collaborative (the trade group for the region's hospitals) shows. COVID-19 hospitalizations are "putting dangerous strain on the state's health care structure," Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff, the Ohio Department of Health's director, warned in a Thursday news conference. Some hospitals have delayed elective surgeries; others are limit visitation, Vanderhoff said, adding "some have even reached their full capacity." The situation should "raise some alarm because none of us wants our hospitals to get so busy that there isn't a bed for you in a hospital if you need one," he said.

Only 21 beds open in Columbus area; hospitals say they're overrun with COVID patients -- Fewer than two-dozen hospital beds remained open in Franklin County on Thursday, forcing hospital leaders to again sound the alarm on surging COVID-19 infections. Intensive care units in the greater Columbus region are at "critical capacity," hospital leaders wrote in a Thursday letter to The Dispatch. Urgent care centers are similarly swamped and hundreds of patients are waiting in emergency departments for beds to open up so they can be admitted, wrote Mount Carmel CEO Lorraine Lutton, OhioHealth CEO Dr. Steve Markovich, Nationwide Children's Hospital CEO Tim Robinson and Dr. Andrew Thomas, chief clinical officer at Ohio State University's Wexner Medical Center. In Franklin County alone, just 10 of 562 ICU beds were available as of Thursday morning and 11 of the county's 2,276 general medical or surgical beds were open, said Jeff Klingler, president and CEO of the Central Ohio Hospital Council. "These numbers are really sobering. They're like nothing I've ever seen before," said Klingler, who has worked with area hospitals for 13 years. At least 3,580 Ohioans were hospitalized with the virus as of Thursday, with thousands being diagnosed with the disease each day. On Thursday, 8,349 new cases of COVID-19 were reported, according to the Ohio Department of Health. >>Read More: Rural Ohio hospitals say their ICUs are full as they struggle to keep up with COVID cases In their letter, the hospital leaders ask that patients consider the best option for their care if they suspect they have COVID-19. They also suggested patients seek help from their primary care doctor before going to an emergency department or urgent care location. Telemedicine, which became more available during the pandemic, is also a good option if people suspect they have COVID and need medical advice or treatment, the hospital leaders wrote in their letter. "We always want people to call 911 and come to our emergency departments if they need lifesaving care ... But unless your COVID-19 symptoms are worsening or life-threatening, you have better care options that can help us stay focused on delivering advanced care to those who need it most," the letter states.

‘Never felt so helpless’: Ohio doctors describe latest COVID-19 surge(WJW)– The Ohio Department of Health held a conference on COVID-19 Thursday morning to highlight the conditions of hospitals across the state. State Health Director Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff led discussion, and was joined by Holzer Health System Chief Executive Officer Dr. Michael Canady and Dr. Brian Kaminski, vice president of quality and patient safety at ProMedica.“I’m afraid that if someone comes in with a medical problem or a surgical problem that we would normally be able to take care of, that we won’t have the ability to do that simply from staffing and beds,” Canady said. “We are so short staffed right now from nurses who have burned out, left, gone to traveling nurses agencies… I’ve been in health care over 40 years and I’ve never felt so helpless. And I don’t know that the public knows how much we are really struggling with this.”The Ohio Hospital Association said one in six patients in hospitals across the state has COVID-19, and one in four patients in the ICU has the virus.Kaminski described it as a perfect storm with one in eight patients hospitalized at ProMedica because of COVID-19. He said for 12 to 14 months, there was lower demand for care as people were afraid to come to hospitals. But now, there is a bent-up demand paired with COVID patients.“Earlier this summer, I think we all felt like we were reaching a point where we were putting this to rest, a lot of the restrictions were loosened and you know, we weren’t wearing masks for a while outside the hospital setting,” Kaminski said. “With the delta surge, we went back to the pandemic we knew before. The mood is very somber. People are definitely stressed. It’s very rare to run into health care workers, patients or family members who have not been impacted by COVID.”

 Two of Newsom's children test positive for Covid-19 — Two of California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s children have tested positive for Covid-19, though the governor has not, his office said Friday.The children, who were not named to protect their privacy, have mild symptoms and will be quarantined."The governor's children tested positive for COVID-19," Newsom spokesperson Erin Mellon said in a statement Friday night. "The governor, the first partner, and the other two children have since tested negative. The family is following all COVID protocols. The Newsoms continue to support masking for unvaccinated individuals indoors to stop the spread and advocate for vaccinations as the most effective way to end this pandemic."The Newsoms' four children, who attend private schools, are under 12 and not yet eligible to be vaccinated, according to CDC guidelines. The governor's office said it does not appear that the children were exposed at school or at any campaign events. They tested positive Thursday.The governor in April received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which calls for one shot. He has not received a booster shot.This isn't the first time the Democratic governor and his family have been directly affected by Covid-19. The family entered a 14-day isolation period last November after his children were exposed to a coronavirus-positive California Highway Patrol officer. Also last November, one of Newsom's children was quarantined after a school classmate tested positive for Covid-19. In July, the governor pulled two of his eldest children, ages 10 and 11, from summer camp after it was discovered that other children were going maskless at the facilities in violation of state policy.

Covid-19 pandemic dramatically increased maternal mortality in Mexico -Being pregnant in Mexico during the pandemic had deadly consequences for many, with a new study from Texas A&M University Health Science Center (Texas A&M Health) showing an increase of 60 percent maternal mortality between Feb. 2020 and Feb. 2021. Published in the journal BMC Public Health, the research study used public health data from Mexico’s General Office of Health Information to estimate changes in the maternal mortality ratio due to COVID-19 infections and changes in care resulting from efforts to control the pandemic. Genny Carrillo, MD, ScD, associate professor at the Texas A&M School of Public Health, and researchers from hospitals and public health agencies in Mexico analyzed data including official death certificates, a national epidemiological surveillance database, and a weekly report of women with diagnosed or suspected COVID-19 who were pregnant or had recently given birth. These data included information on age, ethnicity, diagnosis codes, insurance status and other factors. The researchers analyzed the data to calculate the number of maternal deaths per 100,000 births and compared that ratio to previous years. Additionally, they focused on maternal deaths directly linked to COVID-19. The analysis found more than 1,000 maternal deaths in Mexico during the study period, which amounted to an increase in maternal mortality of nearly 60 percent. This contrasts with a decrease in the maternal mortality ratio seen in Mexico between 2018 and 2019. The researchers found that COVID-19 was the leading cause of maternal death during the study period. The lethality of COVID-19 in this group was notably higher than that for the United States. There was also an increase in deaths related to hemorrhage and hypertension during the study period. The higher proportion of COVID-19 deaths could be attributed to difficulties in getting intensive care access. Other mortality causes, though not directly related to COVID-19, could be due to changes in health care access during the pandemic. Timely and high-quality prenatal and postpartum care can identify and treat health conditions like hypertension that can lead to poorer outcomes. However, the increased demand for care placed a heavy burden on Mexico’s health care system, making it challenging for many to get needed care.

North and Central America are driving a hemispheric coronavirus surge, the W.H.O. says. -While the spread of new coronavirus cases is steady or slowing inmuch of the world, it is accelerating in the Western Hemisphere, where new case reports rose by 20 percent in the past week, the World Health Organization warned on Wednesday.North America, where new case reports are up by one-third, is the chief driver of the new infections.New cases doubled in the Canadian province of Alberta, “where hospitals are experiencing a critical staffing shortage,” Dr. Carissa F. Etienne, the director of the Pan American Health Organization, a division of the W.H.O., said at a news conference. And with new cases in the United States reaching levels not seen since January, Dr. Etienne said, “hospital capacity in many Southern U.S. states remains worryingly low.”Several Central American countries are also experiencing infection surges, including Costa Rica, Guatemala and Belize. The spread of the virus has slowed somewhat in the Caribbean, but there are exceptions, including Jamaica, where new case reports are at their highest of the pandemic.By contrast, in most of South America, which was very hard hit earlier in the year, reports of new infections and Covid-19 deaths are declining. The organization’s experts are not sure why, though they dismissed speculation that a decline in testing might be responsible.“It’s important to note that this drop in South America is not an effect of laboratory testing,” said Dr. Sylvain Aldighieri, P.A.H.O.’s incident manager for Covid-19. “Laboratory vigilance has been maintained.”Dr. Aldighieri said a number of factors could be at work in South America, including strict social distancing measures and reduced mobility in some countries. The change of season may also play a role, he added, noting that “the epidemiological curves for influenza between 2014 and 2019 in South America have a similar behavior to Covid-19 between 2020 and 2021.”Although the highly infectious Delta variant is becoming predominant in the Caribbean, it has yet to make significant inroads in South America, Dr. Aldighieri said.W.H.O. officials called on national governments to pay more attention to how the pandemic affects children, both directly and indirectly.“At the beginning of the pandemic, the virus was having a disproportionate impact on our elderly,” Dr. Etienne said, “and as a result, too many children and young people still don’t think they’re at risk. We must change that.”

Covid cases surge in Britain with accompanying flood of hospitalisations - The UK continues to record tens of thousands of COVID infections each day and around 1,000 deaths a week. In the last week, a further 256,910 cases were announced, up 6 percent on the previous week. A further nearly 30,000 cases were recorded on Saturday, along with 156 deaths. Nationwide 983 people died over the last week due to COVID, an increase of 198 (25 percent) on the previous week. COVID infections are being allowed to spread like wildfire, with over 7.2 million people having been infected since the start of the pandemic. According to Office for National Statistics data published Friday, one in 70 people across Britain are testing positive in England. Infection and deaths are being fuelled by the Delta variant, with more than 669,000 cases of the variant now recorded in the UK, with over half a million (556,542) of these in England. While Delta is the dominant variant, there are at least 16 variants of COVID still in circulation in Britain. Internationally only the United States, with a population five times that of Britain, recorded more cases over the last week. However, the number of cases per million population in Britain last week (3,761) was significantly higher than in the US (2,830). Hospital bed occupancy due to COVID is at its highest levels since March 10, with daily admissions passing the 1,000 mark last week for the first time since the Delta variant became dominant in May. . The surge in hospitalisations is evident from data from an 11-day period from August 19-29, when the number of COVID patients increased by 590 (9 percent). In the 11 days to September 11, the number of people in hospital with COVID shot up by more than 1,000, going from 7,091 to 8,098, and increase of 14 percent and the highest level for six months. It is estimated that if hospitalisations reach 1,500 a day, the National Health Service (NHS) faces being overwhelmed. This is only a matter of time. “New analysis from the science analytics company Airfinity shows that the hospitalisation threshold that has led to previous lockdowns in the UK could be met in mid-November if admissions continue to rise unabated..” The Mirror newspaper revealed in its own analysis of NHS data on Saturday that since all coronavirus restrictions were abandoned on July 19, 154 of 217 NHS Trusts recording an increase in the number of beds taken by people with the virus. A growing number of hospitals nationwide are reporting red and black alerts. On Friday, the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust announced the suspension of routine and urgent surgeries due to pressures intensified by a “peak” in Covid admissions. A red alert means that hospitals are facing a 'significant impact' and a black alert (now known as 'Opel 4' means that a hospital is 'unable to deliver comprehensive care' and patient safety could be compromised. On Saturday, two hospitals in Derbyshire—Royal Derby Hospital and the Chesterfield Royal Hospital—announced Opel 4 alerts. BBC News reported Saturday that “The accident and emergency teams at Chesterfield Royal, Royal Derby Hospital and Queen's Hospital, Burton-upon-Trent [in Staffordshire], saw 1,038 patients on Monday alone. The number of patients with COVID across the three sites rose to 77, an increase from 65 last week with 11 being in the most critical condition.”

U.K. health ministers authorize mass Covid vaccinations for 12- to 15-year-olds. - Health officials in the United Kingdom on Monday authorized a mass Covid vaccination program for 12- to 15-year-olds, amid widespread concerns that Covid-19 cases could spike with the return to school after the summer vacation. The authorization, announced by the chief medical officers of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, ended weeks of uncertainty and came despite some medical experts’ reservations over whether vaccinations would significantly benefit the age group. The four countries’ governments are now expected to put in place campaigns that will offer the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The campaigns are expected to be part of an address that the British prime minister, Boris Johnson, is scheduled to give on Tuesday, in which he will outline a strategy to prevent any new surge in coronavirus infections from overwhelming the national health service over a winter during which seasonal flu could add further strains. His focus is on protecting the country without resorting to the kind of severe lockdown restrictions imposed during earlier phases of the pandemic. Those 16 and up are already eligible for vaccination, and so are younger children who have health conditions that put them at high risk. But otherwise healthy young people generally face only a small risk of suffering serious illness from the coronavirus, and that has prompted a debate over the ethics of vaccinating children to contain a virus that is mainly a threat to adults.As a result — and to the frustration of government ministers — Britain has lagged behind some other countries, including the United States, in vaccinating those between the ages of 12 and 15. The authorizations announced on Monday were presented largely as intended to minimize the disruption caused by outbreaks in schools. Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, said school closings and remote learning had been “extraordinarily difficult for children and had a big impact on health,” including mental health. He acknowledged, however, that the decision to vaccinate children was a closer call than for older people. The debate over extending vaccines to 12- to 15-year-olds exposed divisions within Britain’s medical and scientific community. Earlier this month, Britain’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization said that those in the age group would get only marginal benefits from a mass vaccination campaign. It noted concerns over a rare side effect of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that has occasionally caused heart inflammations and led to palpitations and chest pains. “The margin of benefit, based primarily on a health perspective, is considered too small to support advice on a universal program of vaccination of otherwise healthy 12- to 15-year-old children at this time,” the committee concluded..

Australia starts vaccinating children as young as 12. - Australia has opened up Covid-19 vaccinations to children as young as 12 as it races to inoculate the population amid an outbreak of the Delta variant.Children ages 12 to 15 started receiving Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines on Monday. Appointments for the Moderna vaccine can be booked now for sessions starting next week.Australia’s vaccine campaign is gaining speed after a sluggish first few months. Millions of doses that were ordered earlier this year are arriving, and the country will have enough supply by mid-October to vaccinate every eligible person, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said last week.Currently, 55 percent of the population of 26 million has had at least one vaccine dose, and 34 percent are fully inoculated, according to the Our World in Data project at the University of Oxford. The number of new cases increased by 36 percent over the past two weeks to 1,493 cases, based on the seven-day average.Australia will also receive its first shipments of the Moderna vaccine this week, with 11 million total doses expected to be delivered by the end of the year. The government also signed an agreement with other nations to swap vaccines, which will allow it to get 500,000 doses of the Pfizer shot from Singapore and four million from Britain. In return, Australia promised to ship the same numbers of doses to the two countries later this year.Fully vaccinated people living in Sydney, the epicenter of the Delta outbreak in Australia, had some restrictions eased on Monday. Those who live outside 12 government areas “of concern” are now allowed to have outdoor picnics with up to four other people. Schools in Sydney will reopen on Oct. 25, while pubs and gyms are expected to open in mid-October when the state fully vaccinates 70 percent of its population.

A leading opponent of Israel’s vaccination policies dies of Covid-19. — As recently as late August, Hai Shoulian, a prominent opponent of coronavirus vaccination policies in Israel, was demonstrating in Jerusalem and describing the country’s electronic pass system, which allows vaccinated people access to leisure venues, as “coercion” and “fascism” and “a dictatorship.”Mr. Shoulian died of Covid-19 on Monday, after being hospitalized and placed on a respirator.He did not express any regret over his decision not to be vaccinated. Instead, in a video message from his hospital bed on Sept. 3, the day he said he was admitted and tested positive, he accused the police of trying to poison him.Police officers arrested Mr. Shoulian at the end of the demonstration on Aug. 26. He was released the next day after going before a judge.In the video, he said that the day after he was released, he felt so ill that he was on the verge of collapsing. Speaking between coughs, he claimed that officers had placed a knee on his neck, and complained of broken toes.“I am telling you this was an attempt to assassinate me,” he said in the Sept. 3 video.Israel led the world with its early and rapid coronavirus vaccination program. Two-thirds of its population has received at least one vaccine dose, 61 percent are fully vaccinated and nearly one-third have received booster shots.Even so, despite the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine being freely available, hundreds of thousands of Israelis who are eligible to be vaccinated have so far chosen not to do so. And the country is battling a severe fourth wave of the virus. Mr. Shoulian’s brother, Avi Shoulian, told Israel’s public radio broadcaster on Tuesday that the family had warned Hai Shoulian that it was only a matter of time before he would become infected.

COVID-vaccine booster shot shows promise in Israeli study - Older Israelis who have received a third dose of a COVID-19 vaccine are much less likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 or to develop severe COVID-19 than are those who have had only two jabs, according to a highly anticipated study published on 15 September¹.The standard regimen for messenger RNA-based COVID-19 vaccines is two doses, but some governments, including Israel’s, have started administering third ‘booster’ shots. The latest study evaluated 1.1 million Israelis over the age of 60 who had received their first two doses at least five months earlier. Twelve or more days after receiving a third jab, participants were about 19.5 times less likely to have severe COVID-19 than were people in the same age group who had received only two jabs and were studied during a similar time period.“It’s a very strong result,” says Susan Ellenberg, a biostatistician at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, who adds that the data might be the most robust she has seen in favour of boosters. But potential biases in the data leave some scientists unconvinced that boosters are necessary for all populations — and the data do not dispel concerns about vaccine equity when billions of people are still waiting for their first jab.Israel, which got an early start on vaccinating its population, began offering third doses of the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine in July, to people aged 60 and over. The latest analysis links the third jab not only with a significant reduction in severe COVID-19, but also with an 11.3-fold reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infections.But Ellie Murray, an epidemiologist at Boston University in Massachusetts, cautions that observational studies such as this analysis can contain biases that are difficult to identify and account for. For example, people who sign up to get a booster might have a different risk of COVID-19, or behave differently, from people who do not get a third jab. Ellenberg says that the authors try to address some of these potential biases. Even if not all biases have been eliminated, she says, the magnitude of the effect suggests that the booster offers some protection, at least in the short term. The authors of the study could not be reached before publication.

COVID in Israel: Nearly half of deaths over past month are among unvaccinated - Haaretz.com - The number of coronavirus patients in serious condition has remained stable, according to data released by Israel's Health Ministry on Friday.There are 658 patients in serious condition, compared to 654 a day earlier. Unvaccinated Israelis – who account for 17 percent of the population eligible for a vaccine – make up about two-thirds of the total number of serious cases.Meanwhile, more than 3 million people in Israel have received a third COVID shot, according to the Health Ministry. A panel of independent expert advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is holding a debate whether Americans should receive a booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Currently, 3,008,511 people in Israel have gotten the booster shot.There are 658 patients in serious condition, compared to 654 a day earlier. Unvaccinated Israelis – who account for 17 percent of the population eligible for a vaccine – make up about two-thirds of the total number of serious cases.The difference is even more pronounced when booster shots are taken into account. In the over-60 age group, 222 of patients in serious condition are unvaccinated, while 101 have received two doses of the vaccine and 46 have received a booster shot. Among those under 60 who are in serious condition, 200 are unvaccinated, 49 have received two doses, and seven have received a booster shot.The death toll has reached 7,465, with 703 people dying in the past month, 322 of them unvaccinated.

China’s Fujian Province reports 22 Delta cases, the country’s largest outbreak in a month. - China has logged its highest number of coronavirus cases in nearly a month, prompting one county to shut down public transportation and test hundreds of thousands of people. On Sunday, the Chinese authorities reported 22 new locally transmitted infections, all in the southern province of Fujian and caused by the Delta variant. The number was the highest since Aug. 14, when 24 cases were recorded. China does not release enough data to make clear how prevalent Delta is there, but last month, the country stamped out multiple Delta outbreaks that swept across half the country through mass testing, contact tracing, and targeted lockdowns. Health experts have warned that such measures come at a punishing economic and social cost and may deepen pandemic fatigue among the public. The outbreak over the weekend bucked a downward trend of cases, which had fallen for more than a month since Aug. 9, when China reported 109 infections. While Sunday’s case count is far below many other countries, the number reflects what health experts have long warned: that it is probably nearly impossible to completely eradicate the Delta variant, and that Beijing needs to rethink its zero-Covid strategy.The government said that the Fujian outbreak started on Sept. 10 in a primary school in the county of Xianyou, and local authorities said that most of the cases involved young children. An initial analysis showed that the initial carrier was an adult who had arrived from Singapore.The authorities in Fujian have ordered mass testing of all students and teachers to be completed within a week. The city of Xiamen has closed off two districts and a hospital after identifying Covid patients. In Xianyou, buses and taxi services have been suspended. More than 900,000 residents in the county have been called up for testing, with threats of criminal punishment for anyone who does not cooperate. A team from the National Health Commission that has been sent to Fujian said that it would probably detect more cases, but added that the outbreak could be controlled before the weeklong National Day holiday at the start of October, according to CCTV, the state broadcaster.

China says it has fully vaccinated 1 billion people. - China said on Thursday that it had fully inoculated 1 billion people, a milestone for the world’s most populous country that brings it closer to its goal of vaccinating 80 percent of its population by the end of the year.It was a significant accomplishment, representing 71 percent of China’s population of 1.4 billion. China has administered 2.16 billion doses, nearly triple that of India, which is ranked second for shots given and has doled out 752.7 million doses, according to Our World in Data, which tracks vaccination figures.More than 200 million people ages 60 and older have been inoculated, while about 95 million children ages 12 to 17 have received shots, according to Lei Zhenglong, a senior official with China’s National Health Commission.“The total number of doses and the number of people covered by vaccination in our country rank first in the world,” Mr. Lei said at a news briefing on Thursday.Spooked by multiple Delta outbreaks, China recently expanded access to vaccines. Officials sent health care workers door to door to administer doses and dispatched “vaccination buses” to public spaces. In the countryside, nurses could be seen injecting farmers as they worked in the fields.The Chinese government has no qualms about pushing a more forceful stance on vaccines. The government changed its messaging in July, telling local officials to shift their approach to targeting all those who “should be vaccinated” from those “willing to be vaccinated.”In August, the authorities in at least 12 cities in China warned residents that those who refuse Covid-19 vaccinations could be punished if they are found to be responsible for spreading outbreaks. On Aug. 17, several cities in central Hubei Province announced that people who refused to be vaccinated would have that entered into their “personal credit score.” They could be barred from going to work or entering hospitals and train stations.

 33 districts in Uttar Pradesh are now Covid-free: State govt - Hindustan Times - 33 districts in Uttar Pradesh are now Covid-free: State govt Overall, the state has a total of 199 active cases, while the positivity rate came down to less than 0.01 per cent. There are no active cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in 33 districts of Uttar Pradesh, the state government informed on Friday. About 67 districts have not reported a single new case of the viral infection in the last 24 hours, the government said, noting the steady improvement of the Covid-19 situation in the state. The 33 Covid free districts include Aligarh, Amroha, Ayodhya, Baghpat, Ballia, Balrampur, Banda, Basti, Bahraich, Bijnor, Bhadohi, Chitrakoot, Chandauli, Etah, Deoria, Fatehpur, Ghazipur, Gonda, Hamirpur, Hapur, Hardoi, Hathras, Kasganj, Lalitpur and Mahoba. The list also includes Moradabad, Muzaffarnagar, Pilibhit, Rampur, Saharanpur, Shamli, Siddharth Nagar, and Sonbhadra, according to the state government data. Overall, the state has a total of 199 active cases, while the positivity rate came down to less than 0.01 per cent. The recovery rate, meanwhile, has improved to 98.7 per cent. As per the state's health bulletin, Uttar Pradesh reported only 11 new Covid-19 cases and zero deaths in the last 24 hours. The fresh cases came out of 2.26 lakh samples that were tested in the last 24 hours. As of Friday, the state government has conducted 7.42 crore tests, according to the data published by Uttar Pradesh's health department. On the vaccination front, around 7 crore people in the state have received their first dose of the jab. The vaccination coverage in the state has exceeded 8.47 crores, out of which, 12 lakh people have been inoculated in the last 2 hours. Meanwhile, the overall nationwide tally climbed to 33,174,954 after recording 34,973 cases in the last 24 hours. This was around 19% lower than Thursday when the country had logged 43,263 fresh infections. The death toll stands at 442,009.

Portugal fully vaccinates 80% of population against COVID-19, leads world – Portugal has fully inoculated 80 percent of its population against the coronavirus, official data showed, becoming one of the world’s most vaccinated nations as authorities gradually drop most COVID-19 restrictions. According to a Reuters tracker, Portugal and the United Arab Emirates have the same rate of complete vaccinations, jointly leading the world. The southern European nation, which at the start of this year battled what was then the world’s worst coronavirus surge, has vaccinated around 8.2 million people out of its population of just over 10 million, health authority DGS said late on Tuesday. Almost all adults over 65 and half of young people aged 12-17 have now been fully vaccinated, DGS said. Everyone above the age of 12 is eligible to receive the vaccine in Portugal. “I’m not concerned if we are (the world’s) number 1, 2 or 3,” the head of Portugal’s vaccination task force, Vice-Admiral Henrique de Gouveia e Melo, said after a visit to a vaccination center near Lisbon over the weekend. “What I want is to control the virus, to vaccinate as many eligible people as possible so the virus doesn’t have room for maneuver,” he said outside the center, where he was applauded as he walked around. Gouveia e Melo has been widely praised for setting up a speedy vaccination campaign, which has allowed Portugal to lift most of its coronavirus restrictions. Mask-wearing ceased being compulsory outdoors from Monday. He said the country started to inoculate at the same pace as other European Union nations but as anti-vaccination movements grew elsewhere, Portugal, where only around 3 percent of the population consider themselves vaccine “deniers”, sped up the rollout.

Air pollution exposure during pregnancy has long-term impact on children’s health, development - Particulate matter (PM) is a major component of air pollution that is increasingly associated with long-term consequences for the health and development of children. In a study recently published in Nature’s Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine, Natalie Johnson, PhD, associate professor at the Texas A&M University School of Public Health, and her co-authors synthesized the findings of previous studies, reviews and meta-analyses on the adverse health effects of the two smallest types of particulate matter (PM): fine (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) and ultrafine (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 1 μm). Both types of PM can be inhaled deep into the lung. Ultrafine particles have recently been shown to cross into circulation and even cross the placental barrier, directly reaching the developing fetus. A range of adverse health outcomes associated with fine PM exposure were reported in the studies and reviews of human data, including low birth weight, asthma and other chronic respiratory conditions, cognitive and behavioral issues, obesity and diabetes. Research on the effects of prenatal ultrafine PM exposure has not been as extensive, but a growing body of evidence shows similarities with the effects associated with fine PM exposure. Studies and reviews of data obtained from animal models supported the findings from the human studies. In addition, some of the studies examined the possible ways that PM could cause the observed adverse health effects. The two broad mechanisms documented in the literature are direct (ultrafine PM crosses the placenta and enters fetal circulation) and indirect (PM causes interactions that result in oxidative stress, inflammation, epigenetic changes and endocrine disruption). The researchers also reviewed possible treatments and policies that might minimize or even undo the harms associated with prenatal PM exposure. Green spaces such as parks and other areas with trees and foliage provide a range of benefits for the communities that have them, including lower exposure to PM. Nutritional interventions, including maternal dietary changes and antioxidant and vitamin supplementation, can provide protective effects that are also associated with better health outcomes for children with prenatal air pollution exposure.

What Is the Environmental Cost of Bottled Water? A recent study published in Science of the Total Environment found that the environmental toll of bottled water was 1,400 to 3,500 times higher than that of tap water, while drinking only tap water would only take an average of two hours off a resident's life in the Spanish city of Barcelona. "Our findings suggest that the sustainability gain from consuming water from public supply relative to bottled water far exceeds the human health gain from consuming bottled water in Barcelona," the study authors wrote.The study is notable for being the "first attempt" to integrate two kinds of assessment for evaluating the health and environmental impacts of drinking water choices, study co-author and postdoctoral research at the Technical University of Catalonia Marianna Garfi told EcoWatch in an email.The first is a health impact assessment (HIA)."HIA provides a framework and procedure for estimating the impact of an intervention on a selected environmental health issue for a defined population," Garfi explained.The second assessment is a life cycle assessment (LCA), which identifies the environmental impacts of a product from manufacture to disposal. In this case, the researchers focused on materials and energy used and waste generated.They then used these assessments to consider the health and environmental impacts of four scenarios:

1. Current drinking water patterns in Barcelona.
2. What would happen if everyone switched to tap water.
3. What would happen if everyone switched to bottled water.
4. What would happen if everyone switched to filtered tap water.

The researchers focused on Barcelona because they were based there and had the data available. It also has THM levels and bottled-water consumption habits that are similar to those of other countries in Europe, which makes it a useful point of comparison.

Toxic Stormwater: The Less Obvious, Often Unknown Danger of Flooding --After Hurricane Ida hit New Orleans and its remnants struck New Jersey and New York, rescue efforts took place via boats and kayaks and people were often forced to walk through standing water. Some the standing water continues in flooded basements. It raises questions about the hazardous materials, such as wood planks, nails, random metal objects, as well as the less visible toxins, such as bacteria and fertilizers, which could be in the water. When it rains, stormwater runs over land and gathers fertilizers, pesticides, phosphates, gasoline, heavy metals, litter, plastic and more. During intensely wet weather, however, the water is not conveyed to the treatment plants, since it would exceed their capacity. Instead, "during such overflow periods, a portion of the sanitary sewage entering, or already in, the combined sewers discharges untreated into the nearest waterway (e.g., the Hudson River, East River)." All it takes to exceed the capacity is rains of a tenth of an inch per hour. And according to the National Weather Service, it rained over three inches an hour when Ida measured at its most intense in Central Park.This untreated overflow is discharged out of 460 sites located around New York City. The overflow could contain anything from gasoline to pollutants from industrial facilities to untreated sewage. Untreated sewage, in turn, might lead to bacteria in the water. Among bacteria, total coliform are widespread in nature, found in soil, water and animal and human waste. Fecal coliform, a subset of total coliform, are present in the gut and specifically in the feces of warm-blooded animals. A species of fecal coliform is Escherichia coli or E. coli, which can be found in livestock such as cattle, chickens, pigs and sheep. While coliform typically does not cause disease, some strands of E.coli are harmful. . The water can become contaminated by leaking septic tanks or sewage pipes; by the fecal matter of birds, humans, livestock and pets; or by the aforementioned untreated sewage. Typically, whether the water is safe cannot be determined by look, smell or taste. Instead the water must be tested.Other common pollutants carried in stormwater include fertilizers, heavy metals, nitrates, PCBs, pesticides, phosphates and plastic particles — whatever chemicals the water flows over. Unlike water that goes down the drain at home, stormwater that goes down a drain on a street corner is untreated. Carrying its accumulated pollutants with it, it dispels them into waterways, creating not only an environmental hazard but also a health risk. Mold is a big risk resulting from flooding, which can create health problems. Basements were not only more damaged but are also harder to dry out.The cleanup can also be a challenge. The repairs can lead to exposure to asbestos, lead and other toxins found in homes. Of course, many products used to clean up also contain chemicals. (OSHA) advises that for floods at the workplace, "cleaning up spills of hazardous materials, and search and rescue, should only be conducted by workers who have the proper training, equipment and experience."

There’s One Surefire Way to End Big Sewage Spills: End Big Sewage - Call it the summer of sewage. In July, Los Angeles’ Hyperion Water Reclamation Plant, the city’s largest municipal wastewater treatment facility, spilled 17 million gallons of raw sewage into Santa Monica Bay after an unexpected surge of debris overwhelmed the plant, resulting in beach closures during the height of beach season. Weeks later, The Los Angeles Times revealed that the still-damaged plant was continuing to release partially-treated wastewater into the Pacific Ocean. Earlier in the month, England’s Southern Water, a privatized utility, was fined 90 million pounds (roughly $125 million) for intentionally releasing untreated sewage between 2010 and 2015, apparently in order to save money. And The New York Times reported on the growing, climate-change-exacerbated problem of sewer overflows in Chicago, where backups disproportionately burden poor, non-White communities.One way to reduce the impact of sewage spills is to reduce the amount of sewage available to spill, but conservation can only go so far in the face of urban growth. According to a 2020 paper in the journal Natural Resources Forum, global wastewater production was set to increase 24 percent by 2030 and 51 percent by 2050. In the United States, the American Society of Civil Engineers estimated in 2017 that 56 million new users would need to be connected to centralized wastewater treatment systems over the following two decades. Cities can also incorporate more green infrastructure, such as green roofs and bioswales to absorb stormwater and reduce the load on wastewater systems. Constructed wetlands can also mitigate pollution from sewer overflows. Massive underground reservoirs can hold storm flows until plants have capacity to handle them again. One problem is that centralized treatment plants tend to be located in low-lying areas, to take advantage of gravity, and near bodies of water, to release their effluent. So storm surges and flooding can easily bring them down — and sometimes it takes weeks to get them working again. Drought also affects their operations: Too little water can cause a sewage flow to stagnate, and thirsty tree roots can penetrate underground pipes in search of a drink. What’s more, if power goes out, pumping stations and wastewater treatment plants can go offline too. And since centralized systems are practically invisible to users, people just keep showering and flushing even during announced failures, when the wastewater they’re creating will just flow directly out to rivers, lakes, and the sea. (And, anyway, what choice do they really have?)Instead, sewage should go local. New residential and commercial developments, in particular, can take advantage of innovations for buildings and neighborhoods that allow wastewater to be recycled for immediate use, its nutrients and energy used onsite. In my reporting on sanitation and the environment, I’ve come across increasing numbers of such projects, many of them pilot-scale, ranging from high- to low-tech.

Massacre of 1,428 Faroe Islands Dolphins Sparks Outrage From Activists and Locals - The slaughter of a record 1,428 dolphins in the Faroe Islands is prompting outrage from environmental organizations and even local residents.Sea Shepherd announced that the killings took place the night of Sunday, September 12 and amounted to the largest single hunt of whales or dolphins in Faroese history."For such a hunt to take place in 2021 in a very wealthy European island community just 230 miles from the UK with no need or use for such a vast quantity of contaminated meat is outrageous," Sea Shepherd UK COO Rob Read said in a statement.The incident is part of a Faroe Islands tradition known as the Grind, in which marine mammals, particularly whales, are hunted, BBC News explained. Supporters say it is sustainable and an important part of the cultural heritage of the autonomous Danish territory. Opponents, on the other hand, argue that it is unnecessarily cruel to the animals hunted.Sunday's hunt, however, was exceptional for several reasons. Faroese marine biologist Bjarni Mikkelsen agreed with Sea Shepherd that it was a record hunt. The previous record was set in 1940, when 1,200 animals were killed. In general, government figures say that an average of 600 pilot whales a year are caught, but the number of dolphins is usually much lower. It stood at 35 in 2020 and 10 in 2019.By contrast, Sunday's hunt saw a pod of nearly 1,500 white-sided dolphins driven by motor boats and jet skis for several hours into Skálabotnur beach, where every one of them was killed, Sea Shepherd reported.Locals told Sea Shepherd that the incident violated Grind laws in three ways:

1. It was not called by the properly authorized Grind foreman.
2. Several of the hunters involved did not have a license, which means they were not trained in how to properly kill the animals.
3. Several of the dolphins were run over by motorboats, leading to a slow and painful death.

The exceptional numbers and cruelty of the incident sparked outrage among locals as well as activists. One lamented the waste to Danish newspaper Ekstra Bladet, according to Sea Shepherd. "My guess is that most of the dolphins will be thrown in the trash or in a hole in the ground,"

 New company is trying to resurrect the woolly mammoth to combat climate change A first-of-its-kind startup officially launched on Monday with a bold mission that pushes the boundaries of flora and fauna conservation: de-extinct the woolly mammoth. Colossal, a bioscience and genetics company with $15 million raised in private investment, aims to revive animal species that have been long classified as extinct, beginning with the wooly mammoth, an ancestor of today’s elephants that died out during the Holocene epoch more than 11,000 years ago (a few isolated populations survived until about 3,700 years ago). Company leadership intends to resurrect the woolly mammoth using genetic sequencing and editing technology, specifically CRISPR. From there, Colossal will cultivate a de-extinction library of animals to resuscitate into the modern world. It also aims to harvest DNA and embryos from currently endangered species to prevent similar extinction patterns. George Church, a Harvard genetics professor and Wyss Institute faculty member, is at the forefront of Colossal's research. Ben Lamm, a serial entrepreneur who has worked in the tech industry for years, is also a co-founder. “Never before has humanity been able to harness the power of this technology to rebuild ecosystems, heal our Earth and preserve its future through the repopulation of extinct animals,” said Lamm in the press release. “In addition to bringing back ancient extinct species like the woolly mammoth, we will be able to leverage our technologies to help preserve critically endangered species that are on the verge of extinction and restore animals where humankind had a hand in their demise.”

Cow pee is an environmental problem. But now scientists say calves can be potty-trained. -A herd of “clever cattle” in Germany have successfully been potty-trained and can now relieve themselves in a designated area nicknamed the “MooLoo,” scientists say — a move that they hope will help lower greenhouse gas emissions amid the global warming crisis. There are an estimated 1.4 billion cows on Earth and they happen to emit a lot of harmful waste products — through burping, urination and defecating — making the animals a major driver of climate change.Their frequent urination produces 55 to 110 gallons of methane each day and contains nitrogenous components that pollute Earth’s streams and rivers, make the waters dangerous for people to swim in or drink from, and pose a risk to wildlife.The University of Auckland joined forces with scientists at a research laboratory in Germany for an experiment that would allow the cow’s urine to be collected, treated and neutralized — so it poses less of a risk.According to researchers, 11 out of 16 calves were taught to use the MooLoo in just 15 training sessions — a result they said compares favorably to the amount of time it takes to toilet-train children ages 3 to 4.“The common perception is that cows are placid, lovable, but perhaps not as bright as other animals,” said Lindsay Matthews, a New Zealand-based animal behavioral expert and one of the lead authors of the study. “The cute thing here is that the animals are causing a problem, because of [intensive] farming practices. And here, we can have them as part of the solution, by using their underestimated intellect.”

Hurricane Ida Leaves Trail of Destruction in Badly Polluted Cancer Alley | Sierra Club -- (photo essay) For years, I have been documenting all aspects of climate change and its effects on frontline communities—from the forces driving it, to those fighting against it, to the impacts the warming planet is having (namely more intense storms). Based in the New Orleans area, I knew it was just a matter of time before I would be affected by a storm myself. Ida was that storm. I rode out the hurricane on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain, across from New Orleans, in St. Tammany Parish. By the time the storm reached me, it had weakened from a Category 4 to a Category 2. On August 9, the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, gusts of wind and sheets of rain beat down on my house for hours.I headed out to Louisiana’s Cancer Alley, an 85-mile stretch along the Mississippi River between Baton Rouge and New Orleans. There are over 100 fossil fuel facilities in that area, including petrochemical plants and refineries. I wanted to see how the drivers of the climate crisis fared. From over 30 miles away, I could see billowing black smoke coming from flares at Shell's Norco Manufacturing Complex. When I got close to the refinery and petrochemical plant, the smells at that time were overwhelming. These were the biggest and dirtiest flares I had ever seen. A few days later, the Louisiana Environmental Action Network arranged for me to take a Cessna flight to see Cancer Alley from the sky. My photographs of industry and those affected by it serve as documentation of man's role in creating climate change and environmental degradation. This series documenting Ida’s aftermath in Louisiana’s Cancer Alley is my visual testimony that humanity is courting imminent disaster.

Ex-Hurricane "Larry" dumping heavy snow over Greenland after making landfall in Newfoundland, Canada - Hurricane "Larry" made landfall near South East Bight, Newfoundland, Canada at 03:45 UTC on September 11, 2021, with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h (80 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 960 hPa, making it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone by 15:00 UTC, moving NNE toward Greenland at 78 km/h (48 mph), and merged with mid-latitude low, generating a massive blizzard over the southeastern Greenland.Larry was the first hurricane to make landfall in Newfoundland since Igor in 2010 and only the 11^th over the past 150 years.It knocked out power throughout St John's and the surrounding area and brought heavy rains, strong winds, and unexpectedly high storm surge.¹By 17:00 UTC on September 11, 23 000 customers were still without power, down from 60 000 at the height of the storm. The Royal Newfoundland Constabulary and the City of St. John's urged the public to remain off the roads to minimize any risk to public safety due to downed power lines and debris. " St. John's Mayor Denny Breen said Larry caused a 'significant amount' of damage around the city, including damaged traffic signals and roads.A notable storm surge event occurred near the Burin and Avalon peninsulas, with water levels about 1.5 m (4.9 feet) higher than normal.After moving over Newfoundland, Larry transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone and merged with a developing mid-latitude low in the Labrador Sea, generating a massive winter storm forecast to drop huge amounts of snow over southeastern Greenland over the weekend and into the new week.The merging systems will lead to a massive winter storm over Greenland, producing a pretty rare event when a hurricane tracks far north in the Atlantic and pushes high tropical moisture towards the Arctic region," said Marko Korosec of Severe Weather Europe.² Forecasters expect upwards of 1 - 1.5 m (3 - 5 feet) of snow over southeastern Greenland through Monday, September 13. "The overall system will remain pretty large and quite intense over the weekend while tracking northeast just north of Iceland with its center and gradually dissipate in the Greenland Sea early next week." "It is actually quite a rare event that a hurricane survives so far north in the Atlantic, meaning that it keeps producing some convective storms and drags a very high amount of moisture that will normally interact with the lower temperatures, therefore have the potential to produce deep snow," Korosec said.

As strengthening Nicholas nears Texas, Louisiana utilities clean up from Ida - As Tropical Storm Nicholas threatened flash-flooding and a storm surge for the Texas Gulf Coast on Sept. 13, Louisiana electric utilities progressed restoring power from Hurricane Ida, but more than 110,000 customers still lacked service as of mid-afternoon. Power demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas was lighter than usual, but power prices on Sept. 13 stronger than any of the past give years on that date. The National Weather Service in its 1 pm CT Sept. 13 public advisory said the southern and middle Texas coasts faced "flash flooding, dangerous storm surge and gusty winds" from Nicholas, which packed maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm was forecast to stay just offshore and "could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast," with tropical-storm-force winds extending as much as 115 miles from the center. The latest forecast shows the storm making landfall before 7 am Sept. 14 between Corpus Christi and Port Lavaca. As of about 3:15 pm CT, ERCOT's systemwide power demand had reached 56 GW, and the system was forecast to only reach 57.9 GW for the day, less than the previous five-year average of almost 59 GW on Sept. 13, ERCOT data shows. However, this year's strong natural gas prices kept real-time and day-ahead on-peak locational marginal prices well above average for Sept. 13. Through 3 pm CT, real-time on-peak LMPs at the ERCOT North Hub, the system's most liquid location, averaged about $40.60/MWh, according to ERCOT data, compared with a range of $23.06/MWh to $29.24/MWh for that date 2016 through 2020. ERCOT North day-ahead on-peak LMPs for delivery Sept. 13 averaged $47.75/MWh, well above the $31.37/MWh average of the previous five years on that date, and even above the five-year maximum of $46.25/MWh. It should be noted that the Sept. 13 day-ahead price was up about $6 from the previous day-ahead price. ERCOT North day-ahead on-peak LMPs for delivery Sept. 14 was $53/MWh, according to the Intercontinental Exchange, as ERCOT forecast peakload for the remainder of the week to range from 61.4 GW to 68.5 GW, heavier than the previous five-year average of 60.7 GW. On Sept. 13, S&P Global Platts observed Houston Ship Channel spot gas trading around $5.15/MMBtu on the Intercontinental Exchange, well above the previous five-year settled-price range of $1.92/MMBtu to $2.985/MMBtu for that date. As of 3:30 pm CT, only CenterPoint Energy, which primarily serves the Houston area, was the sole Texas utility reporting more than 1,000 customers offline, totaling about 5,600. In contrast, Entergy still had 107,637 customers without service two seeks after Category 4 Hurricane Ida slammed into the Louisiana Gulf Coast near Port Fourchon with wind speeds around 150 mph. Dixie Electric Membership Corporation was the only other Louisiana electric utility with more than 1,000 customers lacking service, at around 9,000 as of 3:30 pm CT. As service has been restored, power demand and real-time prices have risen in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which serves almost all of Louisiana. As of 3:30 pm CT, MISO's load had topped 94 GW, more than the forecast peak of 93.6 GW. At the Louisiana Hub, real-time prices averaged about $63.50/MWh at that time, well above the previous five-year range of $26.63/MWh to $52.89/MWh on that date. As power crews continue to work to restore service, they must also keep in mind the approach of Tropical Storm Nicholas, which is forecast to cross into Louisiana as a tropical depression on Sept. 15. "We are prepared for periods of shower and thunderstorm activity in Texas and Louisiana through Wednesday," Entergy said in a news release Sept. 13. Entergy on Sept. 13 showed estimated restoration times extending to Sept. 17 for three Louisiana parishes, Sept. 22 for one more and "no later than" Sept. 29 for five others.

Nicholas is now a hurricane that threatens the Texas coast with heavy rain and storm surges – CNN - Nicholas has strengthened into a hurricane and is threatening to bring heavy rain, storm surges and strong winds to portions of the Texas Coast, the National Hurricane Center said late Monday. Hurricane Nicholas -- with wind speeds of 75 miles per hour -- was located about 20 miles south east of Matagorda, Texas, and 45 miles southwest of Freeport, Texas, the center said in its 11 p.m. update. "On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas is expected to make landfall along the Texas coast in a few hours, move over extreme southeastern Texas on Tuesday and early Wednesday, and over southwestern Louisiana later on Wednesday, the alert said. The center warned that Nicholas could produce between 6-12 inches of rain -- and as much as 18 inches in some areas -- across the upper Texas coastline."Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast into far southwestern Louisiana," it said.Houston is preparing for moderate to heavy rain overnight from Nicholas, Mayor Sylvester Turner said Monday morning."This is a storm still with some unpredictability, but we know this is going to be primarily a rain event," he said.mThe city is preparing for the rain by lowering Lake Houston by 1 foot and deploying high-water equipment throughout the city because officials cannot pinpoint which locations will get more rain, the mayor said.Houston Independent School District schools will be canceled Tuesday due to inclement weather, according to the school district's website. All after-school activities Monday are canceled as well. The district is the largest district in Texas, with over 275 schools. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said the state has been preparing for Nicholas by mobilizing supplies, support and resources. Abbott said he has been in touch with Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo as well as other county judges along the Gulf Coast "to make sure that we're working collaboratively, to make sure that at the local level, we will be prepared for whatever the storm may bring." Nicholas, the Atlantic hurricane season's 14th named storm, formed in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday. Typically, the 14th named storm doesn't form until November 18, Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at University of Miami's Rosenstiel School, said in a tweet.

Louisiana Declares Emergency Ahead of Hurricane Nicholas --Nicholas reached hurricane strength as it approaches landfall in Texas, bringing flooding rains to Houston and parts of Louisiana still recovering from Hurricane Ida’s blow two weeks ago. Nicholas was upgraded to a hurricane with winds reaching 75 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said in an 11 p.m. New York time advisory. The storm was located about 20 miles (32 kilometers) southeast of Matagorda, Texas, and was expected to reach landfall within hoursWhile it will mostly bypass the Gulf of Mexico’s oil and natural gas platforms, it could dump as much as 18 inches (46 centimeters) of rain, posing a threat to coastal refineries and petrochemical facilities.“Houston is in the crosshairs,” said Steve Silver, a senior meteorologist with Maxar, noting that precipitation poses a bigger threat than wind. Nicholas will be “a significant rainfall event.”Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency and Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered emergency crews to get ready for the storm. A hurricane warning stretches from Port O’Connor to Freeport, Texas, and the heaviest rain will likely fall from Monday to Wednesday, according to the Weather Prediction Center. The storm surge could reach five feet at Galveston Bay in Houston.The storm’s slow forward advance adds to the flooding risk as it passes over the region. “I would call it a serious threat,” said Jim Rouiller, lead meteorologist at the Energy Weather Group. “If it slows up tomorrow, we could have serious trouble.”

Hurricane "Nicholas" makes landfall along the Texas coast - Nicholas reached hurricane strength at 03:00 UTC on September 14, 2021, and made landfall on the eastern part of the Matagorda Peninsula, about 15 km (10 miles) WSW of Sargent Beach, Texas at 05:30 UTC with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 991 hPa. The storm brought heavy rain, strong winds and dangerous storm surge. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 km/h (10 miles) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight (LT), followed by a turn toward the northeast and a slower motion by late Tuesday, September 14 and an even slower eastward motion on Wednesday, September 15. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas is expected to move slowly over southeastern Texas today and tonight, and over southwestern Louisiana on Wednesday.1 Heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through the middle of the week, NHC forecaster Pasch noted.2 Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along the eastern Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas.As of 06:00 UTC, a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Port O'Connor, Texas to Sabine Pass; Galveston Bay and Matagorda Bay. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Port O'Connor to Freeport, Texas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Freeport to San Luis Pass, Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for areas north of Port Aransas to Port O'Connor; and north of Freeport to Sabine Pass. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach, Louisiana.On Monday, September 13, Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued a state disaster declaration for 17 counties -- Aransas, Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Galveston, Harris, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Matagorda, Montgomery, Newton, Nueces, Orange, Refugio, San Patricio, and Victoria.3 "Texans throughout the Gulf Coast should prepare now for the impact of Tropical Storm Nicholas, which is expected to bring severe rain and flooding to these communities," Abbott said. "The State of Texas is working closely with officials on the ground to provide the resources and support needed to keep our communities safe, but it is up to all Texans in the path of this storm to take precautions, heed the guidance of officials, and remain vigilant as this severe weather moves through Texas."

Tropical Storm Nicholas still flooding Texas coast. And a new depression might form soon - Tropical Storm Nicholas briefly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane overnight just before it made landfall on the Texas coast around 2 a.m., and by Tuesday afternoon it was still battering Texas with high winds and drenching rains.Nicholas smashed up barrier island towns like Surfside Beach, south of Galveston, flooded roads and yards, and knocked out power to more than 400,000 customers in Texas, according to the utility.Although the center of the storm was crossing Houston on Tuesday, radar showed the worst rain and winds focused over the New Orleans area, which is still recovering from the devastating blow of Category 4 Hurricane Ida a few weeks ago. Nearly 100,000 customers remain without power in the state.The National Weather Service predicts New Orleans could see 6 to 10 inches of rain this week, with Mississippi and the Panhandle also feeling up to 8 inches in some spots along the coast. The region is also at risk for life-threatening flash floods as Nicholas crawls along the coast.As of 5 p.m., the storm’s maximum sustained winds had dropped to 40 mph, and tropical-storm-force winds still extended up to 140 miles from the center. Nicholas was moving east-northeast at 6 mph. It was 50 miles east of Houston, Texas and 45 miles west-southwest of Port Arthur.The northeast coast of Texas and the southernmost coast of Louisiana remain under a storm surge warning, as Nicholas is expected to bring three to five feet of storm surge in places like Galveston Bay.Tropical Storm Nicholas slowed down as it crossed the Louisiana border Tuesday afternoon, but intense rainfall continued.The tropical wave near Africa is on the verge of strengthening into a tropical depression in the next couple of days as it heads west across the Atlantic at 15 mph. As of the 2 p.m. update, forecasters gave it a 70% chance of developing in the next two days and a 90% chance within the next five.Models show the system, if it forms, could reach the Lesser Antilles by early next week. But at that point, the system would face some harsher conditions that could slow its development. The other disturbance, the low-pressure system expected to form north of the Bahamas, saw its chances of formation grow overnight. Forecasters said the system could possibly develop into a tropical depression this week and upped its chances of strengthening to 40% in the next two days and 60% in the next five. If it does form, forecasters expect it will keep moving north-northwest.

Tropical Depression Nicholas is slowing to a crawl and threatening to dump up to 20 inches in some parts of Louisiana and other Gulf Coast states – CNN -- As Tropical Depression Nicholas ambles across Texas, Houston residents are being asked to stay home Tuesday night and people in Louisiana, including some still trying to recover from Hurricane Ida, are being told to prepare for a lot of rain.Though Nicholas doesn't pack the high winds Ida did when it made US landfall on August 29, it is a slow-moving rainmaker that could dump up to 20 inches of precipitation over the next few days. More than 6 inches of rain has fallen in downtown Houston since Sunday, the National Weather Service said on its website. In the city of Deer Park, almost 10 inches of rain came down.In Louisiana, forecasters predicted some areas will see 2 to 3 inches in an hour on Wednesday. The storm will pull significant moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico into Thursday, according to CNN Meteorologist Taylor Ward.Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches -- and in some places up to 20 inches -- are likely through early Friday in places from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle."Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions," the National Hurricane Center said in its 7:00 p.m. CT advisory. With its slow movement and heavy rain, Nicholas bears some resemblance to Hurricane Harvey, the Category 4 storm in August 2017 that stalled over the Houston region and dumped 30 to 40 inches of rain over several days. The flooding that ensued claimed the lives of 68 people -- the highest hurricane death toll in the state since 1919. More than 6.2 million people are under flash flood watches that extend from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. More than 700,000 of those people are in the New Orleans area, according to the National Weather Service. The center of the storm, which made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane early Tuesday, slowed and is expected to stall in Louisiana where it will dissipate.Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said the storm is expected to drop some of its heaviest rain in areas impacted by Hurricane Ida."I suspect that there will be some of these homes and businesses that have begun to receive power again after Hurricane Ida, they may lose it because of Nicholas, because all of those electric companies have yet to restore the full redundancy and resiliency of their systems," the governor warned in a news conference Tuesday afternoon.Power was still out for about 74,000 customers late Tuesday, and Nicholas could sap critical recovery resources and further damage the state's vulnerable infrastructure.

Nicholas lingers in Louisiana, dumps rain as far as Florida— Tropical Depression Nicholas hovered over Louisiana on Wednesday, raining on a region struggling to recover from Hurricane Ida and deluging coastal Mississippi, Alabama and northwest Florida. Flash flood warnings were in effect Wednesday evening in parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. And the National Weather Service said heavy rains were likely to last until Nicholas dissipates over Louisiana some time Friday. In Louisiana, the rainfall complicated an already difficult recovery at homes ripped open by Ida on Aug. 29. Thousands remain without power in Texas and Louisiana. “I’m not sure at this point what it looks like,” said Edith Anthony, whose home in LaPlace, a New Orleans suburb between Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River, suffered roof damage while getting about 2 to 3 feet (0.6 to 0.9 meters) of floodwater two weeks ago. They still don’t have electricity, and couldn’t arrange for a tarp to cover the roof before Nicholas blew in. She and her husband were staying in a Mobile, Alabama, hotel, preparing to return this weekend to take a look at what’s left of their home.

"High-Risk" Flash Flood Alert Issued For Southwest Louisiana Amid Tropical Depression Nicholas - The National Weather Service on Sept. 15 warned that Southwest Louisiana faces a “high risk” of flash flooding from Tropical Depression Nicholas. Such “high risk” warnings, the most dire and severe type of warnings, are rarely issued anywhere in the United States. Rain from the storm will move over the area through Wednesday and showers are expected to produce high rainfall rates and significant rainfall totals of around 5 to 10 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Wednesday morning. Some of the locations that are expected to experience flash flooding include Ville Platte, Marksville, Bunkie, Mamou, Glenmora, Cheneyville, Turkey Creek, Cottonport, Pine Prairie, Mansura, Lecompte, Hessmer, Evergreen, Bayou Chicot, Chicot State Park, Indian Lake, Whiteville, Echo, Reddell, and Poland. “Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding,” the agency warned. On Tuesday, the NHC warned that widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. “Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions,” the NHC said. Isolated storm totals of 20 inches were possible from southern Louisiana to the far western Florida Panhandle, it added. “Life-threatening” flash floods are also expected for other parts of the Deep South, the NHC said in Tuesday’s bulletin. Large parts of southern Louisiana are still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, while tens of thousands of people remain without power. Louisiana’s death toll from Hurricane Ida stands at 26 after health officials last week reported 11 additional deaths in New Orleans.

Gard hit by historic rainfall -- more than 2 months' worth of rain in just 3 hours, France - Severe thunderstorms accompanied by powerful wind gusts hit the Gard department in Southern France on the morning of Tuesday (LT), September 14, 2021. In just three hours, the equivalent of more than 2 months of rain fell on Gard's southern and western regions, in particular Nimes. A mass of hot and humid air rose over France at the beginning of the week in an increasingly unstable atmosphere, with thunderstorms affecting most of the country on Tuesday, MeteoFrance meteorologists said.1 Supplied with moisture coming from the Mediterranean, they were particularly intense in southern France, causing remarkable accumulations of rain around the Gulf of Lions. In Nimes, the intensity of the rain was historic. A weather station in Saint-Dionizy recorded 244 mm (9.6 inches) of rain in just 3 hours, 'an episode which statistically occurs less than once in a century.' This is an absolute record for the Gard department and very close to the 3-hour rainfall record for the entire country -- 253 mm (9.9 inches) set in Montpellie in 2014. At the peak of the storm, 20 mm (0.78 inches) of rain fell in 5 minutes, making the 4-hour total 276 mm (10.8 inches). By midday on Tuesday, 23 people had been rescued from their vehicles by firefighters. A special water rescue team was deployed in Nimes as well as three rescue helicopters.2 At least 10 people were airlifted to safety by helicopter in the municipality of Aigues-Vives, one of the hardest-hit areas. Rescues were also carried out in the towns of Uchaud, Bernis, Calvisson and Boissieres.3 Several people were reported missing on Tuesday, but all but one were found, Interior Minister Gerald Darman confirmed.

Severe flash floods hit capital Abuja, claiming the lives of 4 people, Nigeria - Severe flash floods hit the Nigerian capital Abuja and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) on September 12, 2021, claiming the lives of 4 people.The floods were caused by heavy rains, but the FCT Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Director-General Abbas G. Idriss said the situation has been worsened due to illegal building and blocked drainage channels.The worst affected are areas on the southern outskirts of the city -- Trademoore, Light Gold, Wisdom Estates, and Lugbe.While damage assessment was still in progress on September 13, FEMA confirmed four deaths, 26 vehicles swept away, and a total of 166 damaged homes.¹"I want to appeal to all residents of the Federal Capital Territory Especially Developers to desist from violating the approved building codes in the Federal Capital Territory."We are also appealing to them to stop erecting retention walls to protect stormwater from flowing. By doing so they are causing more havoc to the community."We also call on all residents to always call the 112 toll-free Emergency number to get prompt response when there is any form of threat or danger, as the Search and Rescue team of the Agency alongside other emergency stakeholders are on 24/7 alert."With the FCT now entering the final phase of the rainy season - a phase in which rainfall is always at its peak, authorities are urging all residents to-

• Avoid dumping of refuse in drainages;
• Clear all surrounding drainages and other blockages that obstruct the free flow of water to reduce flood risk and its negative consequences;
• Avoid driving or walking through floodwater;
• Relocate to higher ground before being threatened by floodwater for those who are living along the river banks;
• Watch for sign posts on flood locations
• And also take seriously FEMA’s early warning sensitization from the media and town criers.

More than 1.6 million affected after extremely heavy rains hit Gujarat, India - Very heavy rains affecting the Indian state of Gujarat over the past few days have caused massive floods in parts of the state, affecting more than 1.6 million people. The flooding affected 1 660 245 people across 44 villages in the districts of Rajkot, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Valsad, and Junagadh. According to data provided by Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority (GSDMA), Lodhika in Rajkot district registered 516 mm (20.3 inches) of rain in 24 hours to September 14 while Kalavad in Jamnagar recorded 406 mm (16 inches).1 At least 18 dams overflowed in the Jamnagar district where NDRF team rescued 31 people, including 11 women and seven children.2 The Indian Air Force airlifted 24 people from villages in Kalavad and Jamnagar talukas. Nearly 7 000 people have been evacuated -- 2 553 in Rajkot, 3 966 in Jamnagar, 224 in Porbandar, and 5 in Junagadh. 2 people have been killed, 5 homes destroyed and 28 damaged. In addition, dozens of roads have been closed due to floods, including the State Highway-15 and National Highway-01. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an Orange alert for Tuesday and Red alert for Wednesday for several places of Saurashtra, Gujarat.

2 570 homes damaged or destroyed by floods, Indonesia - Heavy rains affecting parts of Indonesia on September 13 and 14, 2021, caused rivers to overflow, floods and landslides.According to the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre), at least 11 839 people have been affected and approximately 2 570 houses have been damaged or destroyed in West Java, Papua, East Kalimantan, Banten ad Riau Provinces.¹One of the hardest-hit areas is Banten Province, where about 140 people have been displaced across Pandeglang, Serang, and Lebak Regencies.In Papua Province, rescue operations have been hampered by damaged roads and material covering the access.

500 000 people at risk of flooding after La Mojana dam overflows, Colombia - The La Mojana dam in southwestern Colombia overflowed on August 27, 2021, due to high water levels of the Cauca River caused by atypically heavy rains during the month. The resulting floods affected more than 180 000 people in 39 municipalities across Antioquia, Bolívar, Córdoba, and Sucre departments. Numerous homes were damaged as well as thousands of hectares of crops. In addition, an unknown number of cattle was lost and an estimated 300 000 more need to be relocated.1 The worst affected are residents of the municipalities of Nechi, Antioquia, and San Jacinto del Cauca, Bolivar. Departmental entities have declared the red alert given the magnitude of the event and at least 500 000 people living in La Mojana are at risk of future flooding. On September 13, humanitarian organizations carried out a first Multi-Sector Initial Rapid Assessment. Access to food, shelter, non-food items, WASH, and healthcare needs are reported. National authorities are discussing with UN OCHA possibilities of mobilizing international support. La Mojana, made up of four departments, experienced critical moments in 2010 when the La Niña phenomenon left more than 200 000 people affected and 20 000 homes flooded.2 "Today, more than a decade later, due to the floods that occurred in 2010, the fauna and flora have not fully recovered," said Héctor Espinosa, the governor of Sucre. "This can be aggravated if one takes into account that for this year there is a 70% probability that it will repeat between September and October, which generates enormous concern about the approach of the La Niña phenomenon, as reported by Ideam itself."

Summer 2021 neck and neck with Dust Bowl summer for hottest on record - Last month brought Hurricane Ida, numerous wildfires and devastating floods, capping off a summer of record heat and rainfall for many states throughout the country. The average temperature during meteorological summer for the contiguous U.S. was 74.0 degrees F, 2.6 degrees above average. This technically exceeds the record heat of the 1936 Dust Bowl Summer, but the difference is extremely small (less than 0.01 of a degree F).* A record 18.4% of the contiguous U.S. experienced record-warm temperatures. California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Utah each reported their warmest summer on record, as 16 other states had a top-five warmest summer on record.The average summer precipitation total was 9.48 inches — 1.16 inches above average — making it the eighth-wettest summer in the historical record. Mississippi had its wettest summer on record while Alabama, Massachusetts, Michigan and New York had a summer that ranked among their five wettest. Meanwhile, Minnesota had its seventh-driest summer on record.The average temperature for August across the contiguous U.S. was 74.0 degrees F, 1.9 degrees above average, making it the 14th-warmest August on record. New Hampshire and Vermont both had their warmest Augusts on record, while Maine and Massachusetts had their second warmest. The average precipitation for August for the contiguous U.S. was 3.09 inches (0.47 of an inch above average), ranking 14th wettest in the 127-year record. Mississippi ranked fourth wettest while Tennessee had its fifth-wettest August. The city of Tucson, Arizona, saw its wettest August on record thanks to an active Southwest monsoon season.The average U.S. temperature for the first eight months of 2021 was 55.6 degrees F — 1.8 degrees above the 20th-century average — making it the 13th-warmest such YTD on record. California and Maine each reported their third-warmest YTD, while 16 other states had a top-10 warmest YTD.The nation saw an average of 21.19 inches of precipitation for the YTD, 0.48 of an inch above the long-term average, which ranked in the middle third of the record. Mississippi had its third-wettest YTD on record, while Montana had its fifth driest. California, Minnesota and North Dakota all had a top-10 driest YTD on record.

La Nina Development Has Potential to Affect Crops in US, South America - As the calendar moves into the beginning of the fall season, the closely watched barometric pressure indicator of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) situation in the Pacific Ocean is showing signs of La Nina development. The Sept. 8 30-day running average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was a positive 7.68, and the 90-day SOI running average was logged at positive 8.48. Both values are above the La Nina threshold value of positive 7.00. According to the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL): "La Nina is defined as cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that impact global weather patterns. La Nina conditions recur every few years and can persist for as long as two years." In very general terms, the SOI relates to a comparison of the barometer readings on the island of Tahiti in the central Pacific Ocean and the far northern Australia weather station at Darwin, Australia. The positive SOI numbers point to a higher-pressure value at the Tahiti location than the Darwin location. The SOI has been tracked for more than 100 years, going back to the late 1800s. That pattern going on more than 5,000 miles from the central United States will get plenty of attention during this season. La Nina in the September-December time period has the potential to contribute to such large-scale features in the U.S. as: below-normal precipitation in the Southern Plains and Midwest; enhanced tropical storm development in the Atlantic Basin; drier conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil; and a wetter pattern in eastern Australia.

• -- The below-normal precipitation (drier) trend in the Southern Plains suggests reduced soil moisture for the 2021-22 winter wheat crop that will be planted during the next couple months. Most of the Southern Plains is drought-free in early September; however, more than half the key wheat state of Kansas has some phase of dryness or drought noted.
• -- A drier pattern in the Midwest suggests generally favorable conditions for row crop ripening and harvest. A wild card is how any tropical storms or hurricanes that form in the Atlantic Basin would track through the region. The damaging heavy rain and wind from Hurricane Ida in late August came close to tracking into the southeastern Midwest.
• -- Tropical storm and hurricane formation was off the charts a year ago in 2020, when La Nina set in during the last half of the Northern Hemisphere summer season and continued into Northern Hemisphere fall. As of early September, the Atlantic Basin has already had 13 named storms, with a new potential system forming in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Ida and its remnants have already entered the record books for winds, heavy rain and flooding.
• -- In South America, drought damage to Brazil corn, coffee and sugarcane crops was widely noted in news coverage and in market trends during 2021. Argentina has also struggled with drought impact; the key Parana River had a 50-year low flow in 2021. La Nina-related dryness implies no relief from the drought and a threat to crop output for the 2022 harvest in Argentina. In Brazil, southern and south-central areas have the highest relationship to La Nina production impact. Already, early corn planting in south-central areas is off to a slow start because of low soil moisture.
• -- On the other wide of the Pacific, La Nina formation promises to be a rain maker for eastern Australia. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology three-month forecast notes an 80% probability of above-media precipitation for the entire eastern half of the Australia continent. The suggestion is that wheat in all but Western Australia will have favorable moisture to finish its production cycle. Official forecasts point to the third-highest winter crop production figure on record for Australia.

Local officials urge Governor Kathy Hochul to stop NYSEG from auctioning Bell Station Property - A beautiful, natural land that could be managed by the Finger Lakes Land Trust or DEC is in danger of being auctioned off by NYSEG. This week, Assemblymember Anna R. Kelles and Senator Pamela Helming wrote to Governor Kathy Hochul to ask for her “urgent help preserving an undeveloped stretch of Cayuga Lake. Bell Station is a remarkable, 470-acre property featuring 3,400 feet of pristine shoreline on the east side of Cayuga Lake. The property was originally acquired by New York State Electric & Gas (NYSEG) for a power plant that was never built. Bell Station features wooded hillsides, cascading waterfalls, extensive fields currently leased for agriculture, and several tributaries to the lake.“Acquisition of the site for conservation will greatly enhance public access to the east side of Cayuga Lake, which is 90% privately owned,” wrote Kelles and Helming. “Permanent conservation of the property will also prevent additional residential development on the steep hillsides above the lake, development that would likely contribute significantly to increased erosion and to the lake’s harmful algal blooms (HABs). Given that Cayuga Lake already has the highest prevalence of HABs outbreaks in the Finger Lakes, allowing for further increased risk is unwise both for our ecology and for the agritourism industry that is a bedrock of our local economy.” “In order to preserve this rare stretch of undeveloped land for the enjoyment of New Yorkers and the preservation of our natural resources,” continued Kelles and Helming, “we urge you to request that NYSEG cancel its auction and instead enter into transparent negotiations with the Land Trust, as agent for the NYSDEC. This will offer an opportunity for NYSEG and the State to ensure the future of this unique stretch of Cayuga Lake shoreline.”

Update on Northern California’s Dixie Fire - The Dixie Fire that started on Tuesday, July 13 has now burned 960,470 acres. Minimal fire activity is occurring but with some increase in visible smoke as the weather continues to become warmer and drier. The incident management team reported that unburned interior islands of vegetation near the line continue to flare up and present control issues due to a limited number of firefighting resources. Nearly all of the perimeter has established fireline. There are a few relatively small stretches where it does not exist according to the September 14 map prepared by the Incident Management Team. But it is possible that it is not needed in all of those locations. A satellite overflight at 2:29 a.m. PDT September 14 found few large heat sources. However from hundreds of miles above the Earth the sensors on the satellite can’t detect small heat sources that firefighters on the ground could easily see, or during the later stages of mopup, feel with the back of their hand as they try to extinguish every hot spot within hundreds of feet of the fireline.

KNP Complex of fires grows, crosses Highway 198 in Sequoia NP - The KNP Complex of fires more than doubled in size Tuesday, growing by more than 4,000 acres to bring the combined size of the Paradise and Colony Fires up to 7,039 acres.The southernmost blaze, Paradise, is now well established on the north side of the Generals Highway and the Middle Fork of the Kaweah River.There is concern that the giant sequoia trees could be more vulnerable to fire than usual during this drought and the very low fuel moistures. During a Tuesday evening mapping flight the Colony Fire was about a half mile west of the Giant Forest grove but it has to cross the Marble Fork of the Kaweah River to get there. The Paradise Fire was a little over a mile south of the grove.The incident management team predicts that by the end of the day on Thursday the two fires will have merged at Generals Highway. The Colony fire will likely run uphill in Yuca Creek to the north and uphill to the Giant Forest of sequoias.The weather is not in favor of the firefighters on Wednesday. There is no rain in the forecast and good ventilation will favor fire growth. Afternoon and evening winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected. A cooling trend will take place beginning Thursday and continue through the weekend.Tuesday afternoon the KNP Complex of fires, comprised of the Colony and Paradise Fires, was mapped at a total of 5,861 acres.An Evacuation Order, meaning evacuate now, is in effect for the community of Sycamore within Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Park. Other areas are under a warning that they may have to evacuate. The Tulare County Sheriff’s Office is maintaining a map showing these areas.In addition to spreading to the north, the Paradise Fire has grown to the south, crossed Paradise Ridge, and is backing down the other side, according to the Deputy Fire Management Officer for the park who participated in a briefing in a community meeting Tuesday evening.An incident base will be established near Horse Creek Campground and will include a mobile fire retardant plant for helicopters. This is 11 air miles southwest of the Paradise Fire off of Generals Highway.

Firefighters Race to Protect World’s Largest Tree From Menacing Wildfires --Firefighters in California are using blankets to protect iconic sequoias — including the world's largest tree — from approaching wildfires.The Colony Fire was within a mile of Sequoia National Park's iconic Giant Forest Thursday afternoon, which hosts around 2,000 sequoias including the General Sherman Tree, considered the largest on Earth in terms of volume, the Los Angeles Times reported. Officials raced to protect the grove from flames that could reach it within a day."It's a very significant area for many, many people, so a lot of special effort is going into protecting this grove," Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks spokesperson Rebecca Paterson told the Los Angeles Times.The General Sherman Tree has a volume of 52,508 cubic feet, The AP reported. It also extends 275 feet into the air and has a circumference at its base of 103 feet. It is between 2,300 to 2,7000 years old, BBC News reported. Firefighters are protecting it along with other trees in the grove, the Giant Forest museum and other buildings by wrapping it in aluminum, according to The AP.The wrap used is "like tinfoil basically," Mark Garrett, a spokesperson for the firefighting efforts, told the Los Angeles Times. It is the same material used to wrap homes and works by shielding the trees from embers and reflecting heat. Vegetation around the trees was also cleared to help protect them.

Huge boulders break off a mountain near Mexico City, plunging into a densely populated neighborhood (videos) A part of a mountain in Tlalnepantla, located on the outskirts of Mexico City, gave way on Friday, September 10, 2021, sending huge boulders -- some of them the size of small homes -- into a densely populated area, and leaving at least 1 person dead and 10 missing.The landslide followed days of heavy rain in central Mexico and M7.0 earthquake on September 7 in Acapulco¹. Mexico state Gov. Alfredo del Mazo said Friday night that both factors likely contributed to the slide.Residents immediately started search and rescue operations and continued until the night when authorities pulled them off due to the risk of more landslides."We don't want to anyone to take additional risk," said Ricardo De La Cruz, Mexico state's deputy interior secretary. "The geologists have told us that the landslide is complicated. We have made flights with drones and we don't want to put anyone in danger."²De La Cruz added that the priority on Saturday was to stabilize the slope and continue the search. However, the likelihood of finding survivors is falling as rescuers with dogs and sensitive equipment did not detect anything under the rubble.Images from the area showed a segment of the steep, green side of the peak known as Chiquihuite sheared off above a field of giant rubble with closely packed homes remaining on either side.³

At least 3 killed, 60 injured after shallow M6.0 earthquake hits Sichuan, China -- A strong and shallow earthquake registered by the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) as M6.0 hit southwest China's Sichuan Province at 20:33 UTC on September 15, 2021 (04:33 LT, September 16). The agency is reporting a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). Both USGS and EMSC are reporting it as M5.4 at a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). The epicenter was located about 52 km (33 miles) WSW of Yongchuan (population 94 465), 55 km (34 miles) SE of Neijiang (population 546 854), 62 km (38 miles) ESE of Zigong (population 689 961), Sichuan, China. According to the USGS PAGER report, 15 000 people are estimated to have felt very strong shaking and 372 000 strong. The USGS issued a Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and an Orange alert for economic losses. Significant damage is likely and the disaster is potentially widespread. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of China. Past events with this alert level have required a regional or national level response. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are adobe block and unreinforced brick with mud construction. Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.

Grímsvötn volcano ready to erupt, Iceland -According to Benedikt Gunnar Ófeigsson, deformation scientist at the Icelandic Met Office (IMO), there is every indication that the Grímsvötn volcano is ready to erupt. The last eruption of this volcano took place in 2011 -- it was a large and powerful VEI 4 eruption. The average eruption frequency during the last 1 100 years is 1 eruption per 10 years.Data obtained through a GPS station on top of the Vatnajökull glacier show that the ice cap over the volcano continues to inflate. A second station on a cliff in Grímsfjall mountain, southeast of Grímsvötn, has registered inflation as well.¹"That station shows increased inflation, which is due to magma accumulation," Benedikt states.in 2020, the inflation in Grímsfjall mountain reached the same level as prior to the volcano's last eruption in 2011, prompting authorities to raise the Aviation Color Code from Green to Yellow on September 30.²What is different now, compared to the last eruption, is that the surface of the lakes is higher than it has been for a long time."Therefore, once a jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood) occurs, a very sudden drop in pressure will take place. That can trigger an eruption, according to data available to us about prior Grímsvötn eruptions."Such flood occurred at the volcano at the beginning of September 2021 from the eastern and western parts of Grímsvötn's caldera. The flood began on September 1 and decreased during September 8 to 10.²"The inflation continues, but at a slower rate than in the beginning. It slows down the longer time has passed since the last eruption," Benedikt said."That, too, is one of the indications that the next eruption is approaching." Another indication he mentioned is increasing seismic activity. "All the data, therefore, suggest that the Grímsvötn volcanic system is ready to erupt, and that it has been for the past year, or even two."

Astronomers record small asteroid impacting Jupiter -- A bright fireball -- most likely a small asteroid or a comet -- struck Jupiter at 22:39 UTC on September 13, 2021. The impact was seen and captured by astronomers across the world who were observing the ongoing transit of the shadow of Jupiter's moon Io."A bright flash of light surprised me," German astronomer Harald Paleske, who video-recorded the event, told SpaceWeather.com.¹Paleske reviewed the frames and ruled out objects such as airplanes and satellites, which might have been crossing Jupiter at the time of his observation. "The fireball was fixed in Jupiter's atmosphere. It first appeared at 22:39:27 UT on September 13 and remained visible for a full two seconds." The most likely explanation is a small asteroid or comet striking the giant planet; an asteroid in the 100 m (330 feet) size range would do the trick.

‘Humanity is doomed’ - — Climate change is taking a toll on the mental health of teenagers and young adults in a way that could be broadly damaging to society and even democratic institutions.That’s among the findings in a first-of-its-kind survey of people aged 16 to 25 conducted by researchers at The University of Bath, NYU Langone Health, Stanford Medicine Center and other institutions. The peer-reviewed paper, which was accepted for publication Monday by Lancet Planetary Health, surveyed 10,000 young adults in 10 countries.“As bad as the storms are outside, the storms inside are even worse,” report co-author Lise van Susteren said in an interview. “Children don’t live in a cave. They’re more media savvy than we are. They know it’s not some campfire gone awry on the West Coast.”The numbers: 83 percent said people have failed to care for the planet; 75 percent called the future frightening; 39 percent said they’re hesitant to have children.Most worrisome in the big picture was a widespread mistrust of government. Among U.S. respondents, only 21 percent said government could be trusted, the worst showing of any country.In India, nearly 3 in 4 teens and young adults said humanity is doomed. In Brazil, 78 percent said the government lies. Ninety-two percent of Filipinos called the future frightening.“Climate anxiety in children and young people should not be seen as simply caused by ecological disaster; it is also caused by more powerful ‘others’ (adults and governments) failing to act on the threats being faced,” researchers wrote.That failing could amount to a form of child abuse, the report found, saying “the distress of climate anxiety could be regarded as cruel, inhuman, degrading or torturous.”We’ve heard this story before. Teen activist Greta Thunberg took on former President Donald Trump. Teenagers are marching in the streets. Young adults are suing the U.S. government in a case that could go to trial next year. Large employers say they’ve been forced into climate action in part by demands from their young workers.But the survey is the first time climate anxiety has been quantified and documented in young people.“You needed the proof? OK. Here's the fricking paperwork,” said van Susteren, a forensic psychologist. “The era of denial and disconnecting is over.”

Near-Total Global Failure to Meet 1.5°C Targets, Analysis Shows - A new analysis reveals a near total global failure of governments to have climate action and targets on track for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Released Wednesday by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the assessment rated just one nation, The Gambia, as "1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible," and found the United States' overall climate action — despite a welcome "U-turn on climate change" since the Trump administration — to be "insufficient." The analysis, which covered policies of 36 nations and the European Union, framed the widespread failings as particularly glaring given the "absolute urgency" of climate action made clear by the most recent IPCCreport, a publication United Nations chief António Guterres declared "a code red for humanity."CAT, a watchdog effort of Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, described a "2030 emissions gap" in projecting how governments' plans and current policies largely fall short of being on track to meet the 1.5˚C threshold of warming.The analysis said "the IPCC is clear that getting onto a 1.5°C pathway means reducing emissions by 50% by 2030" and that meeting that goal "is no longer a matter of feasibility, but rather one of political will."Such will appears to be lacking.In a statement, Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute pointed to May, after U.S. President Joe Biden's "Leaders Summit on Climate" and the international Petersberg Climate Dialogue, when "we reported that there appeared to be good momentum with new climate action commitments, but governments then had only closed the emissions gap by up to 14%.""But since then," said Höhne, "there has been little to no improvement: nothing is moving. Governments have now closed the gap by up to 15%, a minimal improvement since May. Anyone would think they have all the time in the world, when in fact the opposite is the case."

The Rate of Global Warming During Next 25 Years Could Be Double What it Was in the Previous 50, a Renowned Climate Scientist Warns -James Hansen, a climate scientist who shook Washington when he told Congress 33 years ago that human emissions of greenhouse gases were cooking the planet, is nowwarning that he expects the rate of global warming to double in the next 20 years.While still warning that it is carbon dioxide and methane that are driving global warming, Hansen said that, in this case, warming is being accelerated by the decline of other industrial pollutants that they’ve cleaned from it.Plunging sulfate aerosol emissions from industrial sources, particularly shipping, could lead global temperatures to surge well beyond the levels prescribed by the Paris Climate Agreement as soon as 2040 “unless appropriate countermeasures are taken,” Hansen wrote, together with Makiko Sato, in a monthly temperature analysis published in August by the Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions center at Columbia University’s Earth Institute.Declining sulfate aerosols makes some clouds less reflective, enabling more solar radiation to reach and warm land and ocean surfaces.Since his Congressional testimony rattled Washington, D.C. a generation ago, Hansen’s climate warnings have grown more urgent, but they are still mostly unheeded. In Hansen’s latest warning, he said scientists are dangerously underestimating the climate impact of reducing sulfate aerosol pollution. “Something is going on in addition to greenhouse warming,” Hansen wrote, noting that July’s average global temperature soared to its second-highest reading on record even though the Pacific Ocean is in a cooling La Niña phase that temporarily dampens signs of warming. Between now and 2040, he wrote that he expects the climate’s rate of warming to double in an “acceleration that can be traced to aerosols.” That acceleration could lead to total warming of 2 degrees Celsius by 2040, the upper limit of the temperature range that countries in the Paris accord agreed was needed to prevent disastrous impacts from climate change. Aerosols are microscopic airborne particles from natural and human sources, including smoke, pollen, fine minerals, volcanoes and even plankton-laced sea spray. Depending on how light or dark they are, how high in the atmosphere they float, how they interact with clouds and how long they persist, they have different effects on climate. Hansen and other scientists have paid close attention to one type—sulfate aerosols generated primarily by industrial processes, including fossil fuel burning, because they brighten some clouds by increasing the number of reflective droplets they hold. Those clouds cool the Earth by reflecting some of the sun’s light and heat away from its surface. For much of the industrial age, that interaction of clouds and industrial aerosols has masked part of the heat-trapping effect of greenhouse gases. But since the 1970s, sulphate aerosol emissions have declined under increasingly strict and widespread air pollution laws.

Climate change could spark migration of 216M people: World Bank --Climate change could displace 216 million people by 2050 if issues like rising sea levels, water shortages and decreased crop productivity go unaddressed, a World Bank report titled Groundswell 2.0 warned on Monday. The report found that climate migration "hotspots" could emerge by 2030 and cause serious strife in some of the world's most poverty-stricken regions. Sub-Saharan Africa alone could account for 86 million internal migrants. The report forecasts another 49 million to come from East Asia and the Pacific, while 40 million others could migrate within South Asia. Such dramatic movement would have a major impact on both the places people are leaving and the locations where they are resettling. For instance, Vietnamese migrants escaping high sea-levels that disrupt rice production and fisheries in the Mekong Delta would likely flee to the central coast. But there, the Red River Delta faces its own climate crises such as severe storms. However, the report adds that addressing climate change by restoring ecosystems and reducing development gaps could reduce the number of people forced to migrate. “We have to reduce or cut our greenhouse gases to meet the Paris target, because those climate impacts are going to escalate and increase the scale of climate migration,” the World Bank’s lead environment specialist and Groundswell 2.0 co-author Kanta Kumari Rigaud said, according to Reuters. Such actions could reduce the number of internal migrants to 44 million people, 80 percent less than the report's status-quo scenario. However, the report does not include the Middle East, small island states, most high-income countries or other areas that could contribute to climate migration.

The era of polluting the atmosphere for free is coming to a close -- The price of carbon has never been higher. In April, a metric ton of carbon in Europe traded above $50 for the first time—and then kept rising, smashing through the ceiling set over the last decade. Global carbon prices have followed suit, breaking national records from the US to China.While efforts to fix a cost to carbon emissions have been around for more than a decade, carbon prices have remained persistently low—ranging from a few cents per ton to a few dollars in most cases. That meant businesses and governments could ignore them when making long-term investment decisions. Emissions, meanwhile, continued their inexorable global rise.But carbon prices, in both taxes and trading schemes, are now crossing the threshold analysts say are needed to trigger sustained reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While those prices are still the exception, rather than the rule, they are the bellwether of what’s to come.Two factors have pushed up the cost of carbon: a rebounding economy and renewed national pledges to cut emissions. The world’s economies are recovering faster than expected, buoyed by unprecedented $15 trillion (and counting) in stimulus spending. Industrial activity and energy consumption have followed, sending atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide to unprecedented heights.At the same time, governments under the Paris Agreement are pledging to reverse these trends. Already, countries emitting 60% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions are committed to net-zero targets by mid-century. More are expected to set their own caps or emission targets when countries meet later this year in Scotland.Even the pandemic hasn’t slowed the recent rally, says Marissa Santikarn a climate change specialist at the World Bank. Tax and trading schemes advanced without many delays in the last year, and regulators haven’t blinked as carbon prices climbed this year.But to reach net-zero emissions, today’s prices must just be the beginning, say experts. Forecasters suggest carbon prices will climb through 2030, even as countries chart their own emissions path. Putting the world on the path to net-zero emissions by 2050 means prices will need to exceed $100 per ton in major economies within a decade, estimate researchers. “Broadly, prices will gradually rise as governments get serious about net-zero targets,” predicts Darragh Conway, a lawyer at the consultancy Climate Focus. “But we’re still very far from where we need to be.”

Indigenous Tribes Facing Displacement in Alaska and Louisiana Say the U.S. Is Ignoring Climate Threats - —About 31 Native Alaskan communities face imminent climate displacement from flooding and erosion, which could lead cultures to disappear and ways of life to transform, with four tribes already in the process of relocating from their quickly disappearing villages. The Kivalina, Shishmaref, Shaktoolik and Newtok, along with coastal Louisiana tribes, are among the most at risk of displacement due to climate change. But their efforts to move, according to tribal leaders, have been impeded by a lack of federal programs to assist in their relocation. While there is no specialized federal program to assist in relocation efforts, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Department of Housing and Urban Development can help with specific projects like construction funding or affordable housing. Native Alaskan villages often fail to qualify for FEMA programs because they lack approved disaster mitigation plans or have not been declared federal disaster areas, according to the Government Accountability Office. Many Native villages don’t qualify for relocation assistance from HUD because federal law does not recognize unincorporated Alaska Native villages in Alaska’s Unorganized Borough as eligible units of general local government. But the Unorganized Borough, which consists of those parts of the state that are not within any of its 19 organized boroughs, encompasses nearly half of Alaska’s land mass. Five tribes from Alaska and Louisiana, including the Native Village of Kivalina, filed a complaint in 2020 with the United Nations that the U.S. government is violating their human rights by failing to address climate change impacts that are forcing their displacement, placing them at existential risk. Inaction on climate change has resulted in communities being broken apart and losing ancestral homelands, sacred burial sites, cultural traditions and heritage and livelihoods, according to the complaint. While the government has known for decades that climate change threatens coastal tribes, it has failed to allocate resources to support the tribes’ community-led adaptation efforts, according to the complaint. The small coastal village of Newtok, 500 miles west of Anchorage on the Ninglick River near the Bering Sea, began moving in 2019 due to shoreline erosion from thawing permafrost and storm surge, a project over 20 years in the making. The village’s 400 residents voted in 2003 to relocate to Mertarvik, a village nine miles away, but only 140 have moved so far. Relocation of the village is expected to be completed by 2023 at a cost of about $130 million to the federal and state governments, according to an estimate by the Army Corps of Engineers. Kivalina, on a coastal barrier island 625 miles northwest of Anchorage, could disappear by 2025. In the early 1990s, tribal members like Colleen Swan began noticing changes in migration patterns of the bearded seals and whales they live on, as well as warmer temperatures and a decrease in sea ice. “Our land just started eroding very quickly, right before our eyes,” she said. While the Army Corps of Engineers built a rock revetment to stop erosion in 2008, that didn’t address sea level rise. Ice that surrounded the island melted and was not there to buffer fall sea storms coming from the south.

Indigenous Resistance Blocked 400 Coal Plants' Worth of Climate Pollution - Indigenous-led resistance to 21 fossil fuel projects in the U.S. and Canada has prevented or delayed the equivalent of one-quarter of those countries' climate warming pollution, a recent report says. The analysis from the Indigenous Environmental Network (IEN) and Oil Change International finds Indigenous efforts have staved off more pollution than all the cars on the road in the U.S. and Canada, and about equal to 400 new coal-fired power plants."From an Indigenous perspective, when we are confronting the climate crisis we are inherently confronting the systems of colonization and white supremacy as well," Dallas Goldtooth, an IEN organizer, told Grist. "It's more than just stopping fracking development and pipelines and it's more than just developing clean energy, it's about actually fundamentally changing how we see the world itself."As reported by Grist: The report and data analysis by Goldtooth, Alberto Saldamando, and Tom Goldtooth of IEN and Kyle Gracey and Collin Rees of OCI, is meant to dispel the myth that land defenders and those on the frontlines of the struggles against fossil fuel projects are not making an impact. The work is cause to celebrate, Goldtooth says."When you take a step back and look at the work that Indigenous peoples have put in over the years and decades, it really goes to show that we collectively are making a tremendous impact for the benefit of this planet," Goldtooth told Grist."It backs up what we've constantly been saying," he added, "recognizing Indigenous Rights protects the water, protects the land, and protects our futures."

A Record 227 Environmental Defenders Were Killed in 2020 -A record 227 environmental and land defenders were killed in 2020 for protecting their homes and our planet, according to the annual Global Witness report released Monday. That's an average of more than four people a week, and more than double the number reported in 2013, the report authors wrote. Further, they connected that rise in violence with the worsening of the climate crisis itself. The number of environmental or land defenders — defined as anyone who peacefully protests the exploitation of the natural world — killed has risen every year but one since Global Witness began issuing its reports in 2012. Miranda-Brobeck said that increase was not the result of better reporting. In fact, because the yearly counts are based on publicly available data and subject to strict verification criteria, Global Witness believes it underestimates the true number of fatalities. Instead, 2020's record death toll "can be understood as another climate metric," the report authors wrote, along with the fact that the year tied for the hottest on record and saw the worst North Atlantic hurricane season.The report authors noted that the climate crisis and the violence against defenders share three key traits:

• 1. Inequality: Climate change disproportionately impacts poorer countries in the Global South that have historically contributed less to its impacts. The violence meted out against environmental defenders also predominantly occurs in Global South countries. This year, only one of the killings took place in a Global North country (Canada), and the top three deadliest countries were Colombia, Mexico and the Philippines. The deadliest region was Latin America, while killings in Africa more than doubled from 7 to 18.
• 2. Business: The same extractive industries that perpetuate the climate crisis are also responsible for a significant amount of the killings. This year, more than a third of the attacks were linked to logging, mining,agribusiness and large hydroelectric projects. Logging was the deadliest this year, and more than 71 percent of the defenders killed this year died defending forests. In this case there is a clear connection between the forces robbing Earth of its natural carbon sinks and the violence enacted against the people who fight to preserve them.
• 3. Government (In)action: As with the climate crisis, governments either actively perpetuate the violence or do not do enough to curb it. This year in particular, many governments used the coronavirus pandemic as an excuse to limit freedoms such as the right to protest or to a free press. In fact, 158 countries imposed new restrictions on demonstrations in 2020. This is a problem because attacks are more frequent in countries that put more restrictions on civil society.

‘We will have a really long, long memory’: Greens calling businesses’ bluff on climate change – POLITICO -- Green groups backing the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion spending package are aiming their fury at one of the bill’s most powerful opponents: corporate business lobbies that claim to support action on climate change. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Business Roundtable and the National Association of Manufacturers all support the much smaller bipartisan infrastructure bill championed by the Biden White House, which includes tens of billions of dollars for responding to climate disasters and promoting green power. They also backed billions in new spending last year for wind, solar and renewable energy. But the same business groups have taken a hard line against the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion plan, which would raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations while tackling causes such as health care, child care and racial equity in addition to climate change. The groups are sticking with that position even as some of their own members, such as Pfizer, Microsoft and Bank of America, have criticized them for doing too little on climate. Environmentalists and their supporters in Congress have a message for those companies: Pick a side. With much of the country still recovering from the death and wreckage of Hurricane Ida and after a summer of heat waves and wildfires across the globe, they are promising that businesses will face lasting repercussions to their reputations if they waffle on what could be their best opportunity to take on climate change. “It’s a really hard test for corporations: Was it all bullshit?” said Lori Lodes, executive director of Climate Power, a group whose leaders include veterans of Hillary Clinton’s and Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaigns. “There’s one train and you’re either getting on it or we will have a really long, long memory.”

The budget bill could be the last hope for climate action from Congress - After decades of inaction from the United States on climate, President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats face a reckoning.Biden has big climate ambitions, vowing in April to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030. The world is watching closely to see whether the US will deliver on that promise, as the President's climate envoy, John Kerry, prepares to meet with global leaders in November for the United Nations climate summit.Jonathan Pershing, one of Kerry's senior advisers, recently told lawmakers the US needs to "walk the talk" to regain its climate credibility on the world stage. What's not clear is whether the President has the votes in Congress — even within his own party — to get it done.As the drought and extreme weather intensify, Democrats view the massive budget bill and its significant climate provisions as their last, best hope to achieve something meaningful on climate as the crisis worsens. In August, global scientists reported the planet is quickly approaching the critical warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, below which they say the planet must stay in order to avoid the worst consequences.Within the US, pressure is mounting after a series of climate disasters this summer, including record-breaking wildfires, deadly heat, water shortages and adisastrous hurricane that's expected to cost the US economy billions."Scientists have been warning us for years that extreme weather is gonna get more extreme. We're living it in real time now," Biden said Monday as he toured wildfire damage in California.Congressional leaders have set an end-of-September deadline in the House to pass their massive budget bill alongside a separate bipartisan infrastructure bill. Together, the packages contain hundreds of billions of new climate investments, which Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer argued will get the US most of the way to hitting Biden's fossil-fuel emissions target of 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030.With a razor-thin majority in both the House and Senate, this is Democrats' only shot at passing a substantial climate bill before world leaders meet in November. But there's at least one prominent Senate Democrat who could thwart those plans.

How House Democrats plan to attack climate change - Congressional Democrats laid out a series of proposals Monday on how to combat climate change as part of the $3.5 trillion budget package bill currently being negotiated.The Build Back Better Act, as President Biden’s proposal to invest in U.S. infrastructure is known, was introduced in the House Energy and Commerce Committee and places mitigating and adapting to climate change at its center.“Natural disasters cost Americans a record-shattering $95 billion in damages last year, and they are expected to be even higher this year,” saidcommittee Chair Frank Pallone Jr., D-N.J., in his opening remarks on Monday. “Bold action is clearly needed — the days of incremental change are long gone.”The most high profile of these measures include a first-ever federal fee for climate pollution by power plants, a fee on methane emissions by oil and gas producers and billions of dollars for everyone from homeowners to state and local governments to invest in energy efficiency.In the run-up to crucial negotiations at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, this November, how much the United States — the world’s largest economy and biggest per capita greenhouse gas emitter — commits to reducing its emissions could have a significant effect on the strength of the next global agreement.While Democratic centrists like Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia have indicated that they will block any bill as large as Biden’s proposal, House Democrats have continued to demand a robust response to climate change.To that end, here are the most notable climate and energy provisions and expenditures in the current version of the House bill:

• To help meet the White House’s goal of cutting planet-warming greenhouse gas pollution in half by 2030, $150 billion over 10 years would be set aside for providing utilities with carrots and sticks. Power companies that increase their clean energy production by 4 percent over the previous year would receive a grant, while those that fail to meet the benchmark would owe a payment. (The size of payments in either direction would be based on the amount by which the company exceeded or fell short of the 4 percent threshold.) Based on the allowable amount of carbon dioxide, no fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas would be defined as clean energy. The purpose would be to promote solar, wind, nuclear and hydropower.
• A $27.5 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund would help deploy low- and zero-emission technologies. If, say, a local government or nonprofit organization wants to put a solar array on a public building, this program could support that.
• $5 billion to subsidize the purchase of electric vehicles for federal, state and local governments. These funds and several others in the bill have a portion set aside to be spent specifically in areas with lower air quality, which tend to be lower-income, inner-city communities of color.
• $3.5 billion in grants and rebates for technology that reduces emissions from ports, for example by capturing the emissions from ships when they are docked.
• $9 billion for rebates to homeowners for energy-efficient renovations.
• $9 billion for homeowners, focused on low- and moderate-income communities and Native American tribes, to convert systems that currently burn oil or gas, such as heat and hot water, to electricity.
• A fee for methane — an especially harmful greenhouse gas — emitted by natural gas and oil drilling, storage and transmission facilities. The problem of methane leakage has become more worrisome in recent years, as the fracking boom has led to more domestic oil and gas production and studies have found that more methane leaks into the atmosphere from these operations than previously estimated.

The bill also contains a number of provisions for monitoring, enforcing regulation of and building infrastructure to handle conventional environmental problems such as air and water pollution, some of which are being exacerbated by climate change.

House panel puts forth solar, environmental justice tax credits -The House Ways and Means Committee’s portion of Democrats' $3.5 trillion spending package includes increased tax incentives for clean energy and the creation of new tax credits for electric-vehicle owners, according to text released by Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) late Friday night. The committee’s portion would increase the production tax credit rate for wind and solar power to the full applicable rate through the end of 2031, which would then phase down to 80 percent in 2032 and 60 percent in 2033. It would also increase the energy credit for solar energy facilities built in low-income communities, the rate of which would be based on a combination of health and economic benefits for those communities as well as job opportunities and engagement. The Biden administration has made incentives for use of solar energy a major priority, announcing a roadmap last week in which it comprises 40 percent of U.S. electricity generated by 2035. The bill would also provide a $2,500 tax credit for energy-efficient, single-family new homes, as well as credits for energy-efficient, multi-family homes. It would triple the credit for installation of nonbusiness energy efficiency improvements to 30 percent and substitute a $1,200 annual lifetime cap on such credits. Separately, it would create a new tax credit for the production of renewable hydrogen, with the percentage based on the reduction to lifecyle greenhouse gas emissions. Although some renewable energy advocates have touted major potential in hydrogen, environmental groups like Earthjustice have warned it would present a “false solution” if it is derived from fossil fuels.

How the House reconciliation bill targets 4 local plans for oil and gas leasing, mining - Proposals targeting specific areas for conservation in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and federal waters off Louisiana’s coast made their way into the gigantic budget reconciliation bill that Democrats are moving through Congress.The portion of the $3.5 trillion package approved on a party-line vote by the House Natural Resources Committee last week includes nationwide measures meant to combat the climate crisis by limiting oil and gas drilling, improving coastal resilience, adding offshore wind and establishing a national Civilian Climate Corps.But that bill also sought to settle a handful of issues that are more local in scope—several of them aimed at reining in oil and gas development. Below are four of the most significant local matters in the House Natural Resources title of the budget bill.The bill includes a provision that reverses a land swap from the federal government to private copper mining interests in Oak Flat, an area within Arizona’s Tonto National Forest.A provision in the 2015 national defense authorization law provided more than 2,000 acres of Oak Flat to Resolution Copper, a joint venture of mining companies Rio Tinto and BHP. The company has not started mining while a federal environmental review has been ongoing.The San Carlos Apache Tribe and local activists oppose mining in the area, expecting that it would destroy areas of significance to Native American communities and popular recreation areas, including the cliff faces known as Apache Leap. As part of a manager’s amendment Grijalva sponsored, the bill would bar oil and gas development in the Thompson Divide, a roughly 200,000-acre swath of White River National Forest in west-central Colorado. No new oil and gas leases could be granted for the area, and the bill provides $500,000 for the federal government to buy existing leases from “willing sellers.” The manager’s amendment also included a section to prohibit new oil and gas development within the Chaco Cultural Heritage Area in northwestern New Mexico.The provision would affect the areas around Chaco Culture National Historic Park, a National Park Service site that showcases artifacts from a 1,000-year-old center of Puebloan culture, according to NPS.The Bureau of Land Management has planned to sell parts of the area for oil and gas development, but has postponed those lease sales. Coastal states control the offshore areas that extend generally 3 miles from their shoreline. The federal government has jurisdiction over the ocean that is farther offshore than state-controlled areas, with the Interior Department administering oil and gas rights.The bill would bar the Interior Department from issuing leases for oil and gas production on the Outer Continental Shelf, the offshore beyond a state’s control. The bill would prohibit new leases for any parts of the federally controlled waters off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, not including Alaska, and for much of the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico. Areas of the Gulf had already been closed off to new leases, but that was set to expire next year. The Natural Resources bill would extend it indefinitely.

6 things to watch as panel votes on historic environment bill - The Energy and Commerce Committee will begin voting today on a historic suite of climate and energy programs, as the panel prepares its section of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill. The markup will be closely watched by environmental advocates and industry interests alike, offering the first formal glimpse of the kind of policies Democrats want to use to fulfill President Biden’s promises on climate and drinking water. At the center of E&C’s $456 billion portion is the $150 billion Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP). It’s a policy intended to fit the narrow rules of reconciliation that has evolved over the last eight months from a clean electricity standard to a clean electricity payment program to its current legislative nomenclature. Administered through the Department of Energy, it proposes to dole out grants to electricity suppliers that increase clean electricity at least 4 percent over the previous year. The grants would be calculated at $150 for each megawatt-hour above 1.5 percent of the previous year’s clean generation. Suppliers that don’t meet the target would be hit with a fee at $40 per MWh based on their clean energy shortfall. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), however, threw a wrench into the process over the weekend, spelling out his opposition to the program in an interview on CNN (see related story)."The transition is happening. Now they’re wanting to pay companies to do what they’re already doing," Manchin, a key Senate swing vote, told CNN. "Makes no sense to me at all for us to take billions of dollars and pay utilities for what they’re going to do as the market transitions."The E&C legislation also includes tens of billions for other priorities, including money to replace lead service lines, a new “greenhouse gas reduction fund” and funding for a variety of EPA accounts to reduce air pollution, according to asummary memo from the committee (E&E Daily, Sept. 10).Here are six items to watch as the panel marks up its air pollution, hazardous materials, drinking water and energy proposals:

At least half of climate finance must be spent on adaptation, says UN Secretary General - To mitigate the effects of climate change, the world will have to spend at least 50% of total climate finance on adaptation, such as shoring up land at risk from rising sea level and relocating people whose homes cannot be saved, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Friday. The problem is particularly acute in developing countries. "Developing countries received only $16.8 billion in 2018 — compared to adaptation costs of some $70 billion," Guterres said. "We must commit at least 50% of climate finance to adaptation." The annual costs of climate adaptation in developing countries are expected to grow to as much as $300 billion by 2030, he said. Guterres, who was addressing the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, also said the Earth is on a disastrous course because countries are not doing nearly enough to cut carbon emissions. "The world is on a catastrophic pathway to 2.7 degrees of heating," Guterres said. "We need a 45% cut in emissions by 2030 to reach carbon neutrality by mid-century." The latest Nationally Determined Contributions report, slated for publication on Friday ahead of the COP 26 conference in November, contains information about what countries must do to reach the goals set out in the 2015 climate agreement signed in Paris. According to that report, emissions are still increasing, Guterres said. "Today's data implies an increase of 16% in emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels," he said. Guterres called out coal production. "If all planned coal power plants become operational, we will not only be clearly above 1.5 degrees — we will be well above 2 degrees. The Paris targets would go up in smoke," Guterres said. "We need coalitions of solidarity — between countries that still depend heavily on coal, and countries that have the financial and technical resources to support transitions." He also warned of a "high risk of failure of COP26."

LG&E and UK Partner On Carbon Capture Technology – The University of Kentucky and Louisville Gas and Electric have launched a partnership to study carbon capture technology at natural gas power plants. The latest climate research doubles down on what we already know: Humankind needs to stop pumping carbon into the atmosphere, and the faster we do it, the less the planet warms. The allure of carbon capture technology is that it allows society to continue to burn fossil fuels. But the technology is expensive, and right now even the biggest “direct air capture” plant will have no meaningful impact on the amount of carbon humans emit into the atmosphere every year, according to Inside Climate News.LG&E and University of Kentucky scientists announced last week they are studying how to economically capture carbon dioxide emitted from natural gas power plants. To do that, researchers want to minimize construction costs by also producing hydrogen and oxygen, which can be sold to offset the costs of the technology. By keeping the plant’s electrical generation at a constant rate, researchers hope to produce hydrogen and oxygen during periods of low energy demand, according to a press release from the University of Kentucky. Researchers say the constant rate will maximize fuel efficiency and extend the equipment’s life.

ExxonMobil’s Houston Area CCS Project Wins Support from 11 Big Energy Operators - A landmark proposal by ExxonMobil to capture and store millions of tons of carbon emissions from Houston area petrochemical facilities has won the support of nearly a dozen oil and gas companies, including fellow supermajor Chevron Corp. Last April ExxonMobil said it was looking for local, state and federal support to build a $100 billion carbon capture and storage (CCS) project to pull emissions from the massive industrial complex along the Houston Ship Channel The project as designed initially could capture about 50 million metric tons/year (mmty) of CO2 emissions by 2030 and 100 million mmty by 2040. The captured CO2, equivalent to taking nearly 11 million vehicles off the road, could be stored up to 6,000 feet below the Gulf of Mexico. [In the Know: Subscribe to NGI’s All New Access and gain the ability to read every article NGI publishes daily.] Eleven companies including Chevron as of Thursday had “agreed to begin discussing plans” for the project. Companies that agreed to help advance the project are Calpine Corp., Dow, Ineos USA LLC, LInde, LyondellBasell, Marathon Petroleum Corp., NRG Energy Inc., Phillips 66 and Valero Energy Corp. “Collectively, the 11 companies are considering using CCS technology at facilities that generate electricity and manufacture products that society uses every day, such as plastics, motor fuels and packaging,” ExxonMobil noted. “If CCS technology is fully implemented at the Houston-area facilities these 11 companies operate, nearly 75 mmty of CO2 could be captured and stored…by 2040.” Ongoing discussions are underway “with other companies that have industrial operations in the area to add even more CO2 capture capacity.” The companies that are coming to the table “draw upon our collective global expertise in CCS, and explore and execute potential technology-driven solutions to reduce emissions in Houston,” said ExxonMobil’s Joe Blommaert, president of Low Carbon Solutions. “We can meet our goals in reducing industrial emissions together.” Chevron New Energies President Jeff Gustavson said, “Carbon capture and storage has a critical role to play in advancing a lower carbon future. Success will require collaboration across energy partners, government and other industries.”

The Low Down on Carbon Capture and Storage --Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an experimental technology to capture carbon dioxide gas (CO2) from the smokestacks of power plants, pressurize it until it turns into a liquid, send it somewhere through a long high-pressure pipeline, then pump it about a mile below ground, hoping it will stay there forever. The U.S. Department of Energy is currently examining 19 sites in the midwestern U.S. as possible storage sites for hazardous waste CO2. The American public knows almost nothing about any of this.Here we present a set of verifiable facts and “talking points” for citizens who want to reveal the truth about carbon capture and storage (CCS). These facts reveal that CCS is dangerous, expensive, wasteful, unhealthy, unnecessary, and a distraction from the urgent need to eliminate fossil fuels and replace them with clean, renewable energy as soon as humanly possible.As Professor Howard Herzog of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.) has written, “The rationale for CCS is to allow the continued use of fossil fuels while reducing the emission of CO2 [carbon dioxide] into the atmosphere, thereby mitigating global climate change.”CCS will increase the exploration, acquisition, shipment, processing, storage, and burning of fossil fuels [coal, oil, and natural gas] at a time when 13,000 scientists from 158 countries have already declared that we are facing a “climate emergency,” which is caused mainly by fossil fuels. Every dollar spent on CCS is a dollar that cannot be spent reducing the need for fossil-fueled energy through efficiency, conservation, and renewable-energy power plants with storage. Renewable energy can do it all and create 3.1 million net new jobs. (On job creation, see https://bit.ly/3Bxzll3 Table S28 and related text. On the total replacement of fossil fuels with renewables, see Mark Jacobson, 100% Clean, Renewable Energy with Storage for Everything [New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2020]; https://bit.ly/3yBTR1W) CCS equipment to capture CO2 from the smokestack of a power plant requires energy to operate. To produce this energy, the power plant must burn 10% to 40% more fuel than a similar plant without CCS. (Scientists call this the “energy penalty” for using CCS.) Depending on the specific power plant, burning this additional fuel can release even more deadly toxic pollution – sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), arsenic, mercury, cadmium, lead, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ultra-fine particles (PM2.5). These toxicants are associated with many different illnesses, including heart attacks, cancer, asthma, low birth weight, birth defects, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and brain damage in children, among others. As Devra Davis and others have said, “reductions in burning of fossil fuels can yield powerful, immediate benefits to public health by reducing the adverse effects of local air pollution.” CCS is just plain bad for public health. CCS will increase the cost of electricity to consumers by 25% to 50%. In many locations, alternative sources of energy (solar and wind) are already cheaper (and far cleaner) than fossil-fueled energy with or without CCS. Adding the cost of CCS to fossil-fueled power plants will only make them less competitive in the marketplace – not a sensible investment. Why should taxpayers support a technology that already cannot compete in the marketplace? Why should electricity consumers have to pay for a dirty, expensive source of electricity when cheaper, cleaner alternatives already exist? CCS is obviously a foolish investment of taxpayer dollars and an unnecessary burden on families, consumers and rate-payers.

New York Bans Sale of Fossil Fuel Vehicles From 2034 Onward by Jerri-Lynn Scofield -The state of New York this week passed a law that bans the sale of fossil fuel powered vehicles after 2034. This deadline applies to all new passenger vehicles, making New York the second state to move forward with such a plan, following California’s lead. My first impression is that the time frame for implementing New York’s legislation looks lax – especially given the gravity of the climate change crisis – although I appreciate that infrastructure must be built to accommodate electric vehicles, and that existing fossil fuel vehicles cannot be replaced overnight.Interesting Engineering is more impressed with New York’s action:The law is a major step up compared to President Biden’s executive order last month that aimed for 50 percent of all vehicle sales to be electric by 2030. It is also going quite ambitious given only one percent of all vehicle sales in New York are currently electric,Ars Technica reported. Nevertheless, the setting of a deadline, even more than a decade away, should set into motion the process to fully electrify transportation. Interestingly, the law does not just limit itself to light-duty or passenger vehicles but also includes heavy-duty vehicles, whose development is still in nascent stages. By setting a 2045 deadline, the state is moving towards its ambitious goal of reducing 85 percent of overall emissions by 2050. New York plans to use California’s Advanced Clean Trucks Rule as a template to provide truck manufacturers an annual sales target for zero-emission vehicles. Last year, California became the first state in the U.S. to ban the sale of fossil-fuel cars by 2035, and New York seems to be following the example.A press release from newly-installed New York State Governor Kathy Hochul’s office provides further details about the New York plan: Under the new law, new off-road vehicles and equipment sold in New York are targeted to be zero-emissions by 2035, and new medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles by 2045. The law also requires the development of a zero-emissions vehicle development strategy by 2023, which will be led by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) to expedite the implementation of the State policies and programs necessary to achieve the law’s new goals.

GM tells Bolt EV owners to park 50 feet away from other vehicles And in parking garages, go to the roof or an open area - New, even more cautionary guidance is being given to all Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV owners. In addition to the many other cautions GM provided, now owners are being told to park and store their vehicles at least 50 feet away from other cars. This advice is being given to reduce the chance that a spontaneous Bolt EV fire could spread to other nearby vehicles. Bloomberg first reported this latest development in what has become a Bolt EV fire saga. GM’s words of caution apply to buildings, too. Bolt EV owners are encouraged to park on the top deck of parking structures, or on the top floor. The previous advice of not leaving the car unattended while charging still applies. Of course, much of this could prove troublesome or downright impossible for urban Bolt EV owners that are limited in their parking options. GM in August widened its Bolt recall to more than 140,000 vehicles (all Bolt EVs worldwide) to replace battery modules, at a cost now estimated at $1.8 billion after reports of 10 fires. The automaker said it would seek reimbursement from GM battery supplier LG. Just today, GM announced it would extend the Bolt EV production shutdown through mid-October. GM’s previous Bolt EV production shutdown was scheduled to end September 24. GM will not resume Bolt production or sales until it is satisfied that the recall remedy will address the fire risk, it added.

US companies tap coal, waste for rare earth metals | S&P Global Market Intelligence --Energy and environmental companies are advancing projects that can tap into valuable rare earth materials locked up in coal and coal waste, a potential boon for power generators, mine operators and mining communities that is supported by the U.S. government. As U.S. coal production winds down due to a secular decline in demand from the power sector, advances in technology may offer new revenue streams from the resource. These advances include tapping into coal and its waste streams to extract rare earth metals, a valuable set of 17 elements used in a variety of applications, such as electronics, wind turbines and other technologies. The rare earth resource in coal has attracted attention from policymakers and the mining industry. They see the potential to help coal communities and coal companies that have had economic decline as power generators transition to other energy sources. They also see the potential to reduce U.S. reliance on other countries for rare earth supply. China provided about 80% of U.S. rare earth imports between 2016 and 2019, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. "We need to rapidly scale domestic production of these essential minerals, and we must invest in technology solutions — such as coal-to-rare earths — to help meet the size and urgency of the coming demand," said Conor Bernstein, a spokesperson for the National Mining Association. The U.S. Energy Department's National Energy Technology Laboratory has touted three pilot-scale facilities producing small quantities of mixed rare earth oxides from coal products. Organizations, including a team of researchers at U.S. universities with DOE funding, are working on projects to extract rare earth metals from coal and its waste streams.

Norway’s Climate Dilemma - Carlos Joly, a finance-and-climate consultant, has a piece today on the upcoming election in Norway, one of the world’s major exporters of oil and gas. To its credit, Norway puts its earnings in a fund to support future generations after its deposits are exhausted, known to economists as the Hartwick Rule. That’s great for economic sustainability in Norway, but what about the threat its fossil fuel industry poses to the entire world? Joly notes that the mainstream parties consider only domestic fossil fuel consumption, with the Labor Party proposing to go “carbon neutral” on that front by 2050. (The neutral qualifier is highly problematic, as I show in my forthcoming book, Alligators in the Arctic and How to Avoid Them: Science, Economics and the Challenge of Catastrophic Climate Change.) The Greens want to shut down Norway’s North Sea oil and gas operation over the coming 25 years. Joly wants to go further and have the government instruct its oil revenue fund to divest from fossil fuels globally. I have a different idea. First, while the unilateral dismantling of its fossil fuel industry would be a well-intentioned step, I doubt it would have much impact on overall decarbonization. 25 years is too slow, and more importantly, the consumption of oil and gas is demand-driven, not supply constrained. If Norway takes its fuels off the market, there will be other producers eager to take its place. Second, simply abstaining from investing in other countries’ fossil fuel industries is unlikely to make a significant difference, largely for the same reason. If producing oil and gas remains profitable, a shortfall in investment from some quarters will induce more from others. What I propose instead is that Norway regards its sovereign wealth fund (officially designated as a pension fund) as an endowment whose main purpose is to finance initiatives to forestall a climate disaster. This means devoting a fixed share to funding activist groups in key countries organizing for emergency laws to quickly reduce carbon consumption, and the rest to R&D in decarbonized energy sources.* Meanwhile, keep the oil and gas flowing so that as large a share as possible of global fossil fuel supply is generating carbon mitigation finance. If and when a host of national measures impose decarbonization and fossil fuel demand finally plummets, then it will be time to turn off the North Sea tap for good.

Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing – WSJ - Natural gas and electricity markets were already surging in Europe when a fresh catalyst emerged: The wind in the stormy North Sea stopped blowing.The sudden slowdown in wind-driven electricity production off the coast of the U.K. in recent weeks whipsawed through regional energy markets. Gas and coal-fired electricity plants were called in to make up the shortfall from wind.Natural-gas prices, already boosted by the pandemic recovery and a lack of fuel in storage caverns and tanks, hit all-time highs. Thermal coal, long shunned for its carbon emissions, has emerged from a long price slump as utilities are forced to turn on backup power sources.The episode underscored the precarious state the region’s energy markets face heading into the long European winter. The electricity price shock was most acute in the U.K., which has leaned on wind farms to eradicate net carbon emissions by 2050. Prices for carbon credits, which electricity producers need to burn fossil fuels, are at records, too.“It took a lot of people by surprise,” said Stefan Konstantinov, senior energy economist at data firm ICIS, of the leap in power prices. “If this were to happen in winter when we’ve got significantly higher demand, then that presents a real issue for system stability.” At their peak, U.K. electricity prices had more than doubled in September and were almost seven times as high as at the same point in 2020. Power markets also jumped in France, the Netherlands and Germany.Prices for power to be dispatched the next day rocketed to £285 a megawatt hour in the U.K. when wind speeds dropped last week, according to ICIS. That is equivalent to $395 a megawatt hour and marked a record on figures going back to 1999.In electricity markets, the cost of generation at the most expensive supplier determines prices for everyone. That means that when countries derive power from thermal plants with comparatively high running costs, it boosts prices for the whole market. Operating costs at fossil-fuel power plants are high right now after a relentless climb in prices for gas, coal and carbon permits.Energy prices could shoot even higher if cool temperatures stop gas stores replenishing before the period of peak winter demand, said Tom Lord, a carbon trader at U.K.-based Redshaw Advisors. “You’ve got a gas market that’s extremely tight,” he said.Electricity, gas, coal and carbon markets have a way of feeding on one another. High gas prices prompted utilities to burn more coal, so they had to buy more emissions allowances. Expensive carbon permits then prodded energy companies to turn back to gas, whose price rose again because the fuel is in short supply.The feedback loop has the potential to ripple into the broader economy. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde this month referred to energy markets as one of the main forces driving inflation higher.Wind accounted for about a quarter of Great Britain’s power last year, according to the system operator National Grid. After the wind dropped this month, National Grid askedÉlectricité de France SA to restart its West Burton A coal power station in Nottinghamshire. That won’t be possible in the future: The government has said all coal plants must close by late 2024.

 Europe's record-high gas and electricity prices are a taste of what's in store for global commodity markets, Goldman Sachs says - The sky-high prices in Europe's energy markets could well materialize in a range of commodities markets around the world as their inventories are depleted, Goldman Sachs has said.Wholesale natural gas and electricity costs have surged to record highs in Europe, as a rise in demand from the reopening of pandemic-hit economies coincides with supply getting snarled up by a number of factors.The price of European natural gas futures traded in the Netherlands has risen more than 450% over the last year, to stand at a record high of 60.63 euros ($71.39) per megawatt hour, according to Bloomberg data. UK gas prices have also soared to a record high, as have German and French electricity prices.The price crunches could soon become more widespread, Goldman analysts said in a note Monday."European energy pricing dynamics offer a glimpse of what is in store for other commodity markets," the analysts, including head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie, wrote.They said the combination of falling inventories and the reopening of the global economy is likely to boost price volatility as "markets struggle to balance strong demand with sticky supply."Goldman said it expects the S&P GSCI commodities index to return 11% or more over the next 12 months. The index is dominated by oil, and it includes a heavy weighting of gold and agricultural products such as corn.The US has also seen natural gas prices rise sharply, and the benchmark Henry Hub price is at its highest level since 2014. WTI crude oil breached $70 on Monday as supply struggled to rebound from Hurricane Ida. Goldman's analysts said inventories in nearly all physical goods, from US cars to Chinese copper cathodes, are declining sharply as pandemic restrictions lift, and people go out and spend."These markets are becoming increasingly exposed to any type of supply disruption (like Russian gas exports) or unexpected demand increase (like hot weather)," they wrote.Limits to how much of a commodity can be supplied - due to labor shortages or bad weather, for instance - mean that demand will have to drop for markets to balance themselves out "As commodity markets are now unable to react to the first leg higher in prices through greater supply, once inventories are exhausted like in European gas, then demand destruction via sharply higher prices is the only option to rebalance markets," they said.

Europe's energy crisis is making the market nervous. Analysts expect record-high prices to persist — European power prices have spiraled to multi-year highs on a variety of factors in recent weeks, ranging from extremely strong commodity and carbon prices to low wind output. What's more, the record run in energy prices is not expected to end any time soon, with energy analysts warning market nervousness is likely to persist throughout winter. The October gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, was seen to climb to a record high of 79 euros ($93.31) a megawatt-hour on Wednesday. The contract has risen more than 250% since January, according to Reuters, while benchmark power contracts in France and Germany have both doubled. In the U.K., where electricity bills are now the most expensive in Europe, power prices have soared amid the country's high dependence on gas and renewables to generate electricity. British day-ahead electricity prices rose nearly 19% to reach 475 pounds ($656.5) on Wednesday, Reuters reported. The contract was already trading near record highs shortly after a fire at a U.K.-France power link cut electricity imports to Britain. "By far the biggest factor is gas prices," Higher gas prices have also been a "big driver" in lifting carbon and coal prices to record highs too, Rickson said, although he noted there are other supporting factors at play, such as low wind generation and nuclear plant unavailability across the continent. Carbon prices in Europe have nearly trebled this year as the European Union reduces the supply of emissions credits. The EU's benchmark carbon price climbed above 60 euros per metric ton for the first time ever in recent weeks, trading slightly below this threshold on Thursday. The EU's Emissions Trading System is the world's largest carbon trading program, covering around 40% of the bloc's greenhouse gas emissions and charging emitters for every metric ton of carbon dioxide they emit. Record carbon prices have made highly polluting sources of energy generation even less attractive because coal, for example, emits more carbon dioxide when burnt. Rickson said the outlook for European power prices this winter will be "highly dependent" on gas prices, adding that he expects gas prices to rise even further in the coming months. "Aside from the 'average' picture, we expect prices to be highly volatile, with swings from low or even negative hourly prices when wind generation is high, to very high prices as already seen when wind is low, and demand is high."

Bill Aims To Stomp Out Biomass Power Subsidies -With regulations ready to take effect that effectively close about 90 percent of the state's land area to new wood-burning power generation facilities, Springfield-area lawmakers on Monday pushed for legislation that would more permanently eliminate state clean energy program subsidies for biomass anywhere in the Bay State.Sens. Eric Lesser and Adam Gomez, and Rep. Orlando Ramos, each of whom represent parts of the western Mass. city known as the asthma capital of the United States, were joined by Boston Rep. Jay Livingstone in calling for the Joint Committee on Telecommunications, Utilities and Energy to issue favorable reports on bills that would remove state incentives for facilities that burn wood products to generate power."The purpose of these two bills, and they are identical, is to remove woody biomass as an eligible fuel source in Massachusetts' renewable energy portfolio standard, RPS, and the alternative energy portfolio standard, the APS standard," Lesser, an opponent of a controversial wood-burning power plant proposed in East Springfield, said. "I feel strongly that Massachusetts ratepayers should not be subsidizing what is an inherently dirty fuel." The RPS governs the increasing amount of clean energy that utilities and municipal light plants must purchase each year. State law requires the Department of Energy Resources to make biomass facilities eligible for the RPS program and rules that have been in place since 2012 make only efficient combined-heat-and-power biomass plants eligible to sell renewable energy credits into the RPS market.

Lots of megawatts for new cryptocurrency business in Screven industrial park --Screven County looks to become one of the newest homes for the financial digital phenomena known as cryptocurrency as a Chinese-Canadian based company from Delaware has accepted a contract to buy 25 acres in the county’s industrial park. The Screven County Development Authority has signed a contract with Minder, LLC, for property at the park’s water tower. The Sylvania city council unanimously agreed at its Sept. 7 meeting to be the electrical provider for the business that would require more megawatts than any of the city’s currently existing substations are equipped to handle. Minder, who officially accepted the 10-year city contract on Sept. 9, has agreed to pay for the construction of its own substation for the megawattage at the site. The estimated cost of the desired substation would be between $3 and $4 million. The monthly megawatts necessary for Minder would be 40 MW but its usage could reach 80MW. At the projected earliest, the substation construction would not be completed until April 2022. “We don’t have a substation that could do that amount,” City Manager Stacy Mathis told council members as the board met in the Cail Community Center. “Building a substation will not happen overnight.” The Minder substation – like other substations – must be approved by the Integrated Transmission System before it can be put into operation. While the city and development authority have agreements in place with Minder, the new business still has 60 days for conduct any further “due diligence.” The development authority unanimously agreed to the Minder land purchase in a called meeting on the morning of Sept. 7. The city council – with an increased number of safety stipulations included – approved its contact at its meeting in the evening of the same day.

Milam County banking on bitcoin facility to spark economic growth in the region - Earlier this year, Gov. Greg Abbott signed HB4474 that recognizes cryptocurrencies like bitcoin in its uniform commercial code for financial institutions. The bill paves the way for people and businesses to use virtual currency to conduct certain transactions and investments. One Brazos Valley county is leading the way in the cryptocurrencies industry and hopes the virtual currency will bring new life and jobs to the region. Over the past decade, Milam County has had its share of economic setbacks and losses. In 2008 Milam County lost a substantial amount of its tax revenue when Alcoa shut down its plant in Rockdale. Alcoa, once Milam County’s largest employer, laid off close to 1,000 people. In 2017, Luminant closed its coal-fueled power in Rockdale, once again sending economic shockwaves through the Central Texas region. Milam County would go on to lose a hospital in Rockdale and Cameron in 2018. Now, the county is turning to bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining to spark economic growth in the region. Milam County Judge Steve Young says the new mining facilities in Rockdale are just the beginning of a bright new future for the county as leaders continue to recruit major companies to help revive what was once a bustling economy. “Milam County has suffered for years from the loss of Alcoa. Alcoa was the single largest source of revenue for the county and for the school districts. Then on top of that, in 2018, some 10 years later, the second largest employer Luminant, which was a coal-fired generating facility that supplied electricity, left town. So this county was hurt bad,” said Young. “Then, of course, we lost the hospitals in December of 2018. That was a big deal.”

Indian River coal plant closure may be postponed - — Delaware’s last coal-fired plant may be open a little longer, as plant operators and the regional power grid operator are working out how closing it may impact service reliability for customers. NRG Energy announced earlier this summer that it would close its 410-megawatt Indian River Generating Station in May 2022, eliminating 50 jobs. But the regional power grid operator PJMannounced that in order for the transmission system to carry the weight of the Dagsboro plant, it would need to update its services. Those upgrades are estimated to be complete by 2026 or 2027. “PJM’s most important job is maintaining grid reliability … PJM is currently exploring all options, including the possibility of requesting the unit owner to retain the unit in operation until all upgrades are in-service,” PJM Interconnection spokesman Jeffrey Shields told the Delaware Business Times.The regional power grid operator cannot compel NRG to keep the Indian River plant in-service, but it can request NRG keep it in operation to support reliability. That process allows the plant to stay in-service and recover operating costs until all transmission upgrades are in place, Shield added.PJM and NRG and the local transmission utility have until Sept. 28 to come up with a mitigation plan for the area that will ensure continued reliability for users. A detailed report will be sent to theDelaware Public Service Commission.

Feds say Gov. Justice and family company failed to honor Monroe County stream restoration agreement - The feds are going after West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice for failing to comply with a consent order under which he pledged to address environmental violations — again.The U.S. Department of Justice says the governor and James C. Justice Companies Inc. have failed to comply with stream restoration-related requirements of a February 2016 consent decree that ordered them to submit a detailed restoration plan after alleging they violated federal and state water pollution laws by discharging pollutants along Turkey Creek in Monroe County.The Department of Justice, in conjunction with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, asked U.S. District Judge David Faber in a filing Wednesday to enforce the consent decree, saying that Justice and James C. Justice Companies Inc. have failed to submit post-restoration reports to the federal Environmental Protection Agency and record deed restrictions to protect restored portions of the property.Justice and James C. Justice Companies Inc. agreed to abide by the consent order to resolve allegations filed in December 2015 that they violated the federal Clean Water Act by constructing 20 impoundments along a 1.5-mile stretch of Turkey Creek and an unnamed tributary of the creek near McGlone starting in 2011 that discharged unpermitted dredged or fill material. The James C. Justice Companies Inc., is a Roanoke, Virginia-based stock corporation, according to Virginia state business records.The feds want Justice and the company to record deed restrictions within 30 days, submit to the EPA an initial post-restoration monitoring report assessing whether further restoration work is needed and additional post-restoration monitoring reports for 10 years, starting in April 2022.

When Wall Street came to coal country: how a big-money gamble scarred Appalachia -- The long read -- Around the turn of this century, hedge funds in New York and its environs took a growing interest in coalmines. Coal never had huge appeal to Wall Street investors – mines were dirty, old-fashioned and bound up by union contracts that made them difficult to buy and sell. But in the late 1990s, the growing economies of Asia began to consume more and more energy, which investors predicted would drive up demand halfway around the world, in Appalachia. In 1997, the Hobet mine, a 25-year-old operation in rural West Virginia, was acquired for the first time by a public company, Arch Coal. It embarked on a major expansion, dynamiting mountaintops and dumping the debris into rivers and streams. As the Hobet mine grew, it consumed the ridges and communities around it. Seen from the air, the mine came to resemble a giant grey amoeba – 22 miles from end to end – eating its way across the mountains. Up close, the effects were far more intimate. When Wall Street came to coal country, it triggered a cascade of repercussions that were largely invisible to the outside world but of existential importance to people nearby.Down a hillside from the Hobet mine, the Caudill family had lived and hunted and farmed for a century. Their homeplace, as they called it, was 30 hectares (75 acres) of woods and water. The Caudills were hardly critics of mining; many were miners themselves. John Caudill was an explosives expert until one day, in the 30s, a blast went off early and left him blind.Beneath their feet, the land was becoming unrecognisable. Chemicals produced by the mountaintop mine were redrawing the landscape in a bizarre tableau. In streams, the leaves and sticks developed a thick copper crust from the buildup of carbonate, and rocks turned an inky black from deposits of manganese. In the Mud River, which ran beside the Caudills’ property, a US Forest Service biologist collected fish larvae with two eyes on one side of the head. He traced the disfigurements to selenium, a byproduct of mining, and warned, in a report, of an ecosystem “on the brink of a major toxic event”. (In 2010, the journal Science published a study of 78 West Virginia streams near mountaintop-removal mines, which found that nearly all of them had elevated levels of selenium.)

 Coal Keeps The Lights On, For Now, At The Mountaineer Power Plant - The first thing that strikes you about the Mountaineer power plant is its sheer size.Its stacks rise more than 1,000 feet over the Ohio River floodplain, almost as tall as the Empire State Building. Its massive cooling tower can hold 8.5 million gallons of water.A 20-story building houses its 1,330-megawatt generator. It produces enough electricity to power a city of a million people. Or more than half of West Virginia.Mountaineer has been generating electric power since Jimmy Carter was president.But due to changing environmental regulations and the competition from natural gas and renewable energy, time could be running out.The plant requires upgrades to its wastewater treatment system. Under federal rules, it can operate until 2040 with the upgrades. Without them, it has to close by the end of 2028.Conflicting decisions between utility regulators in two states complicate the plan to extend the plant’s life. West Virginia’s Public Service Commission approved the plan.Virginia’s Corporation Commission, however, rejected it.The regulatory snag shows the limits of what supporters of West Virginia’s coal plants can do to keep them from shutting down as the country moves away from fossil fuels.Shutting down the plant would deliver an economic blow to Mason County. It employs more than 150 workers and supports other jobs in the community. Local schools depend on tax revenue from the plant.Upstream, coal mines in northern West Virginia supply the plant with its fuel, which is delivered by barge. Those jobs are at stake, too.“This is closing of a culture, this is closing of a community,” said Rick Altman of Wheeling, who’s been a coal miner for 44 years. “This is closing of a generational lifestyle that has really fueled this country.”

NRC Approve Texas Nuclear Dump Despite Opposition – Bloomberg -Texas officials vowed to fight a federal regulator’s decision to approve plans to allow thousands of tons of highly radioactive nuclear waste to be stored in oil fields in the state. “Texas will not become America’s nuclear waste dumping ground,” Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, said on Twitter Tuesday. Abbott last week signed into law legislation that attempts to block the project from moving forward.

Update provided on oil leak at Veto Lake - After an oil leak was found at Veto Lake in recent weeks, a meeting was held Tuesday evening at Farmer’s Daughter & Son in Marietta to provide an update on the situation.Zak Zatezalo, with Bordas and Bordas Attorneys PLLC, is working with local people from the oil and gas industry to figure out why the leak happened.“Well, all we know now is that there’s been oil found in the distributor that feeds Veto Lake,” said Zatezalo.Zatezalo said he is working with a team including lawyers, engineers and hydrologists that is looking into the issue in Washington County. “We have a team that takes a look at these situations, tries to assess the nature and scope of any problems that are cropping up in communities and tries to assist where we can in terms of legal intervention, if it becomes necessary, as part of trying to maintain everybody’s property rights,”said Zatezalo.Zatezalo also explained that his team is focused on maintaining a clean and safe environment for the public to enjoy.“We’re still trying to get a sense for the scope of the contamination, the size of it and the status of it,” he said.Zatezalo said his understanding of the issue is that the Ohio Department of Natural Resources has been trying to locate the source of the contamination.“Certainly our clients believe it was from an abandoned well that has become over-pressured, from deep water injection produced fluids, but we’re still waiting on answers from the state,”explained Zatezalo.

Catching Up Ohio's Utica New Well Shale Permits Reports | Marcellus Drilling News - We suppose we should have known. In querying the same Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) database we’ve been querying for years (maintained by ODNR), beginning about two months ago we noticed no new permits had been issued for new Utica Shale wells in the state. A week or two here and there is not all that unusual given the downward trend in drilling new wells. But the trend went on for two months. We were suspicious. A couple of sharp MDN readers emailed to say that ODNR is producing regular reports of new Utica well permits at a different location. We wish the ODNR had posted some sort of notice about the change in not continuing to update their other database. At any rate, we’ve gone back to early July to harvest and present all of the missing Ohio new weekly permit reports below…(embedded weekly tables)

Shell Cracker Plant Update and Impact at Utica Green Conference - -- A decade after Royal Dutch Shell announced it was looking at a Southwestern Pennsylvania site to build an ethane cracker, construction of the $10 billion project is nearing completion.Earlier this year, the latest economic impact study of the Beaver County facility (by a Robert University professor trio) projects an annual kick from operations to the state economy of more than $3.69 billion -- $81.68 billion over the 40-year life of the massive complex.While this study, previous studies on the cracker complex and predictions by economists, academicians, etc. have detailed tax and job impacts, Tom Gellrich says don’t forget the long-term positive benefits to plastic processors.Gellrich, president and founder of consulting firm TopLine Analytics, argues said processors are licking their proverbial chops as the Shell cracker nears completion. Gellrich will be one of the featured speakers at the InauguralUtica Green Conference on October 12, 2021 at the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio which has Encino Energy as the presenting sponsor. Shale Directories and the Canton Regional Chamber of Commerce are producing the conference.Cost savings using the Shell facility vs. ethylene and polyethylene now shipped from the U.S. Gulf Coast can be huge. One study priced the transportation advantage, pellets shipped from Beaver County vs. the Gulf Coast, at nearly 25%.“The impact of the Shell cracker on plastics processors is immense,” Gellrich told Shale Directories. “We encourage all plastics processors in the Appalachian Basin and beyond to attend the Utica Green Conference,” commented Joe Barone, President and Founder, Shale Directories. He further added, “The opportunities coming to these companies are significant as the result the availability and attractive pricing.”One potential customer fed by the Shell cracker could pursue is the world’s largest retailer. Walmart announced in March it will spend over the next 10 years $350 billion on additional items made, grown, or assembled in the U.S., rather than elsewhere.

 One-Third of 45 Active Major Pipeline Projects Located in M-U | Marcellus Drilling News - Even with the onslaught of leftist attacks on the fossil fuel industry–in particular against natural gas pipelines–there are still some 45 major natgas pipeline projects projected to come online over the next five years. Of those 45, we count 16 that are located in the Marcellus/Utica (i.e. Appalachian) region. There’s certainly no guarantee all 16 (or all 45) will end up getting built. But if the 16 pipe projects in the M-U do get built, that will add another 7.9 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of M-U molecules flowing to other markets. Cool.

Industry, greens look to woo Manchin on drilling reforms - As House committees complete their work this week on the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package, environmentalists are already preparing themselves for the likelihood that many of their hard-fought climate victories won’t withstand negotiations with the Senate.One set of priorities, however, stands a strong chance of sneaking through, advocates say: a suite of historic overhauls to the federal oil and gas program.The House Natural Resources Committee approved draft legislation last week, along party lines, containing more than 20 provisions to reform federal oil policies (E&E Daily, Sept. 3).They include raising onshore royalty rates for the first time in a century, imposing new fees on drillers and strengthening the bonding regulations that ensure the cost of cleaning up exhausted wells never falls on the taxpayer.Taken together, both industry and conservationists say the reforms would dramatically change the rulebook for producing oil and gas on public lands. And while advocates say that means fewer emissions and higher revenues, industry allies say the reforms would have the potential to smash the federal oil and gas program.That is, if the reforms survive.Advocates report that they are encouraged, largely because they haven’t yet received a signal the provisions would be opposed by moderate Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Congress’ ultimate swing vote on reconciliation and chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee with jurisdiction over the proposals.Manchin has already cast doubt about the survival of the House’s $150 billion Clean Electricity Performance Program, a centerpiece of Democratic leadership’s plans for using the reconciliation process to combat climate change (E&E Daily, Sept. 13). He met with President Biden at the White House yesterday to discuss the package.But when it comes to boosting royalty rates on federal oil and gas leases, for example, Manchin has “historically been on the side of fairness for taxpayers,” according to National Wildlife Federation President and CEO Collin O’Mara.Drew McConville, senior managing director for government relations at the Wilderness Society, agreed. “These are commonsense reforms that are about providing fair return to taxpayers and looking out for communities and fixing a broken system,” McConville said. “We think they’re pretty hard to argue with, and Sen. Manchin and many others have spoken to the fact that this is a system riddled with problems that need reform.”McConville added that given Manchin’s preoccupation with the spending levels, it should give him solace that the oil and gas program changes included in the House Natural Resources bill would generate revenue that would, in turn, “be important for paying for other important investments in the bill.”The problem is, many of the powerful interests that are aggressively lobbying Manchin — a longtime ally of the fossil fuel industry — against the reforms are also confident that the senator is actually in their camp.

A historically Black town stood in the way of a pipeline – so developers claimed it was mostly white -As fracked gas fields in West Virginia boomed over the past decade, energy companies jumped at the chance to build massive new pipelines to move the fuel to neighboring east coast markets. The 600-mile Atlantic Coast pipeline would have been the crown jewel.But Union Hill, Virginia – a community settled by formerly enslaved people after the civil war on farm land they had once tilled – stood in the way. Residents fought against a planned compressor station meant to help the gas move through the pipeline, arguing that because Union Hill is a historic Black community, the resulting air pollution would be an environmental injustice.But Dominion Energy, one of the pipeline’s two developers, kept pushing. Itpledged to invest $5.1m in community services in exchange for the imposition. The company hired a former member of the governor’s cabinet, who grew up in Union Hill, to drum up support from church leaders to landowners. They flew local leaders on a helicopter to Pennsylvania to tour a compressor station there.Dominion’s campaign split the Union Hill community, dividing church congregations, and in some instances, families. While some residents were for the investment, others saw their resolve to fight the pipeline deepen. In response to mounting opposition, Dominion took an unexpected tack: the company hired outside help to argue that the community around the site was, in actuality, mostly white.“No environmental justice community is disproportionately impacted,” the pipeline project told state officials January 2019, arguing that the communities around the project were “not majority minority or low income”. Dominion did not respond to multiple requests for comment for this story.The locals who took on Dominion eventually became the linchpin of a campaign that helped to get the pipeline canceled. But the fight against the Atlantic Coast pipeline is a familiar story now playing out around the country as gas companies expand a sprawling web of pipelines. Even when minoritycommunities say no, the fossil fuel industry keeps saying yes.

Enverus Rig Count @ 635 (+6); Marcellus @ 34 (+2), Utica @ 12 (+0) - The latest weekly Enverus U.S. rig count shows total rigs in use hitting a new post-pandemic high. For the week ending September 15, the rig count stood at 635, up 6 rigs from the previous week. That’s another new high since April 2020. The Marcellus gained two rigs (now at 34 active rigs) while the Utica stayed even from the previous week (12 active rigs). Collectively the M-U currently operates 46 rigs. The M-U’s biggest competitor, the Haynesville Shale in northern Louisiana and eastern Texas, gained 2 rigs and now operates 52 rigs. From S&P Global Platts: The US oil and gas rig count climbed six to 635 in the week ended Sept. 15, as oil-focused drilling activity pushed to a fresh 17-month high. The number of rigs chasing primarily oil climbed one to 499, the highest since the week ended April 8, 2020, while the number basing mostly gas moved up five to 136, a three-week high but still down nine from its mid-August apex. Despite the fresh high for oil-focused drilling activity, rig counts remain 27% behind pre-pandemic levels seen in early March 2020. Meanwhile the gas-focused rig count is down just 8% from the same period. Drillers in the South Texas Eagle Ford basin added two rigs for a total 50, pushing the rig count there to a fresh 17-month high. Drilling activity in the basin appears to have broken out of its recent range following four consecutive weeks of rising rig counts. After having steadily climbed in late winter, the basin’s rig count has hovered in the high 30s, low 40s range from April through early September. Annual production in the Eagle Ford is expected to fall around 55,000 b/d in 2021, but then climb 140,000 b/d year-on-year in 2022, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. The Permian Basin rig count was also up two at 260, erasing a two-rig slide seen during the week prior. Rig counts in the SCOOP-STACK basin also appeared to have broken out of their recent range after climbing two to 34, the highest since late March 2020. Rig counts were steady across the other major named oil-focused basins. Rig counts in the Bakken were unchanged for a third week at 28, and the number of rigs active in the Denver-Julesburg play held at 13 for a fourth straight week. In the Marcellus Basin, operators added two rigs for a total 34, both rigs were added in the basin’s gas-focused dry portion pushing the total active there to 23. Meanwhile the number of rigs active in the basin’s wet portion was steady at 11. Rig counts in the nearby gas-focused Utica basin were steady at 12 for a third straight week. The Haynesville basin rig count moved up two to 52, holding within a well-worn range that has persisted since early May.

Researcher warns of fracking dangers - The economic boons of fracking are offset by uncalculated costs of ill effects on residents’ health and strains on rural health systems, a University of Rochester Medical Center researcher asserts in a recently published paper calling for tighter regulation of the controversial practice. Short for hydraulic fracturing, fracking is a process used to extract gas or oil from deposits trapped in shale. The method involves drilling into the rock and injecting high-pressure streams of chemical-laden water to break up the shale and free the fossil fuels. Proponents see fracking as bringing prosperity and posing few dangers. Opponents warn of environmental damage and consequent hard-to-reverse ill effects on health. Published in the Aug. 20 issue of the journal Science, a perspective piece by URMC public health economist Elaine Hill and University of Kentucky economist Lala Ma points to research showing increased concentrations of four chemicals used in fracking in water supplies in areas where drillers have used fracking. Hill sees pollution linked to fracking as a factor in increased incidence of heart disease, reproductive health problems, and even mental health and addiction issues. While fracking proponents tout benefits like an estimated average 4.9 percent boost to household income and greater U.S. independence from foreign energy supplies, Hill warns that negative impact on “individual future health, education, and labor market outcomes” offset fracking’s benefits.

NRG Energy oil spill: 90 geese die at Millsboro power plant - About 90 Canada geese have died as the result of an oil spill at NRG Energy near Millsboro."NRG is deeply appreciative of Tri-State Bird Rescue and the Department of Natural Resources for managing that portion of the response, which should wrap up within days," company spokesman Dave Schrader said in a statement.Around 130 geese total were impacted by the diesel fuel spill, all part of a resident flock, according to Schrader.A pressurized hose detached from a diesel fuel storage tank at NRG overnight last week, spilling approximately 30,000 gallons of oil that was discovered the morning of Wednesday, Sept. 8.Schrader said no waterways or public land were affected by the spill. It was contained to "the coal pile" at NRG, he said, the surface of which "is the product of 60 years of compacted material."NRG announced earlier this year that the Millsboro plant would close in June 2022, but that may no longer be the case.The company is working with Mid-Atlantic power grid manager PJM to "support reliability in the region," Schrader said. "How long the (Millsboro plant) might remain operating will depend on the duration of transmission upgrades needed to relieve reliability impacts and the terms of any potential ‘reliability must run’ arrangement."

Center Point Energy plans to invest $280M in natural gas infrastructure improvements (WFIE) - They say the investment is to help continue the company’s natural gas infrastructure improvements during the next five years in southwestern Indiana. CenterPoint Energy officials announced they filed the plans to comply with federal pipeline safety rules, and to ensure the company’s 114,000 natural gas customers in southwestern Indiana receive safe, reliable gas service for decades to come. “We continue the investment in our natural gas infrastructure to ensure we maintain a safe, reliable system,” said Vice President of Natural Gas Distribution, Richard Leger. Officials say if the plan is approved, the customer’s bills will not reflect these investments until 2023. Additional improvements will adjust bills modestly in future years as the projects are completed. They say the work will consist of replacing 108 miles of bare steel and cast-iron distribution mains with new mains, most of which will be plastic, as well as inspecting and upgrading transmission pipelines. They also say over the last seven years, CenterPoint Energy pipeline replacement work has been ongoing in nine cities. These cities include Evansville, Francisco, Loogootee, Montgomery, Oakland City, Petersburg, Princeton, Vincennes and Washington. Pipeline replacement in additional cities throughout the service territory is still to come in future years.

Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Soar Above $5.00 as Nicholas Amplifies Production Worries - Natural gas futures surged on Monday as a new tropical storm threatened to further shake the Gulf of Mexico’s (GOM) production foundation, a development that could hamper supply/demand balances at a time when gas in storage for winter is already light. The October Nymex contract cruised 29.3 cents higher day/day and settled at $5.231/MMBtu. November gained 30.0 cents to $5.273.NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. spiked 36.5 cents to $5.225. Hubs across the country posted double-digit gains.Tropical Storm Nicholas formed Sunday and arrived in the GOM on Monday as production in the region was still reeling from the aftershocks of Hurricane Ida. According to federal estimates, more than one-half of the natural gas produced in the GOM pre-Ida remained offline Monday. Ida made landfall in Louisiana on Aug. 29.Nicholas was forecast to move onshore along the Texas coast by Monday evening as a strong tropical storm or possibly as a Category 1 hurricane, delivering heavy rains and dangerous storm surges, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It could dump 20 inches of rain at times to both Texas and Louisiana.The potential for flooding to force more production offline rattled markets. The National Weather Service forecast torrential rains that could cause flooding from Corpus Christi, TX, to Houston to western Louisiana.Nicholas marked the 14th named storm of the season. The number of storms in an average season typically does not reach 14 until November, the NHC said. Nicholas is the eighth named storm to strike the Lower 48 this year. “More disruptions from extreme weather is a cause of concern for producers and a reason for traders to add price premiums,” said Rystad Energy analyst Nishant Bhushan.The storm also could threaten liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports out of Corpus Christi early this week, analysts at EBW Analytics Group said Monday. However, LNG demand is strong and exports were expected to bounce back quickly, barring massive damage. LNG feed gas volumes hovered around 11 Bcf the past week, near record levels, as demand from both Europe and Asia is consistently elevated amid supply shortages on both continents. “LNG feed gas demand flows are showing a four-month high,” the EBW team said early Monday. Domestic natural gas demand also has held strong into September – after a scorching hot summer — as August-like temperatures persist across swaths of the Lower 48. “Over the weekend, forecasts moved hotter, with some impressive heat for this time of year on tap for much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation,” Bespoke Weather Services said. This would add to consistently lofty temperatures in the Southwest and parts of California. “In fact, a few days over the next couple of weeks will feature near-record” daily gas-weighted degree day (GWDD) totals, the firm said. “The heat we have is still easily bullish, with total GWDDs above even the inflated five-year average.”

U.S. natgas jumps near 6% to 7-year high on rising demand forecast (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 6% to a seven-year high on Monday on forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected, as air conditioning use remains strong in most parts of the country and heating demand starts to pick up in other areas. Traders also noted U.S. futures climbed as record global gas prices keep demand for U.S. exports high at the same time that more than half of U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in two weeks after Hurricane Ida hit the Gulf Coast, and U.S. gas inventories, like those in Europe, remain lower than normal heading into the winter heating season, when demand for the fuel peaks. Further U.S. supply disruptions from bad weather could also be around the corner, with the U.S. National Hurricane Center projecting Tropical Storm Nicholas will scrape the South Texas coast before making landfall near Corpus Christi Monday evening. Front-month gas futures rose 29.3 cents, or 5.9%, to settle at $5.231 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since February 2014. In addition to the front-month, futures for the rest of 2021, 2022 and 2023 were all rising, with calendar 2022 trading at a record high over $4 per mmBtu for a third day in a row. That is much higher than most analysts forecast for 2022. After gas collapsed to a 25-year low in 2020, analysts forecast gas prices in 2021 would average $3.23 per mmBtu before slipping to $3.17 in 2022. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to an average of 90.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, from 92.0 bcfd in August, due mostly to Ida-related losses along the Gulf Coast. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. About 1.2 bcfd, or 52%, of gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in since Ida, according to government data. U.S. power company Entergy Corp, meanwhile, said about 100,000 of its Louisiana customers were still without service, down from a peak of 902,000 who lost power due to Ida. U.S. gas production from major shale basins, meanwhile, will increase to a record high for a fourth month in a row in October, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 87.2 bcfd this week to 87.5 bcfd next week. Next week's forecast was higher than Refinitiv expected on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants has risen to an average of 10.9 bcfd so far in September, from 10.5 bcfd in August, as buyers around the world keep purchasing all the super-chilled gas the United States can produce. That compares with a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April. Gas in Europe and Asia was trading around $21 and $19 per mmBtu, respectively, compared with just $5 for the U.S. fuel. Gas at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, the European benchmark, was at a record high.

U.S. natgas hit 7-year high on Gulf storm worries, soaring global prices (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up to a fresh seven-year high on Tuesday on worries Tropical Storm Nicholas could delay the already slow return of production in the Gulf of Mexico and as record global gas prices keep demand for U.S. exports high. Prices rose despite forecasts for less hot weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Traders noted storms in the Gulf of Mexico, like Nicholas and Hurricane Ida, could boost gas prices by cutting Gulf Coast production. But, they can also reduce demand and cut prices by disrupting liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and knocking out power to homes and businesses, especially the petrochemical facilities that use lots of gas. The storm knocked out power to around 529,000 homes and businesses and the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas. Utilities, however, cut the number of outages in Texas down to around 422,000 by Thursday afternoon. The center of Nicholas was located about 30 miles (55 kilometers) southeast of Houston and could cause life-threatening flash floods across the Deep South during the next couple of days, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Front-month gas futures rose 2.9 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $5.260 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since February 2014 for a second day in a row. Since Hurricane Ida entered the Gulf of Mexico in late August, gas prices have soared over 31% due mostly to the slow return of production after the storm. Traders said gas prices have also been supported by hotter than normal U.S. weather and high air conditioning demand this summer, record global gas prices, and lower than normal gas inventories in the United States and Europe ahead of the winter heating season when demand for the fuel peaks. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to an average of 90.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, from 92.0 bcfd in August, due mostly to Ida-related losses along the Gulf Coast. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. About 1.1 bcfd, or 48%, of gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in since Ida, according to government data.

Natural Gas Futures, Already Above $5.00, Could Soar Further Amid ‘Extreme Tightness’ - Following a hot summer that fueled robust domestic cooling needs and strong demand for U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Henry Hub prices surged and could climb even higher this winter if the season is exceptionally cold and supplies of gas in storage prove perilously low.This was a key theme to emerge during a panel discussion at the LDC Gas Forums – Midcontinent on Tuesday in Chicago. NGI’s Price and Markets Editor Leticia Gonzales shared a panel discussion with IHS Markit’s Samuel Andrus, executive director of North American gas.Natural gas futures on Monday surged to a fresh 2021 high – and the highest level in eight years — as supply/demand balances further intensified alongside a fast-developing hurricane season.The latest price action “may be just the tip of the iceberg as to what’s in store this winter,” Gonzales said during the LDC event.Former Hurricane Nicholas, which quickly downgraded after landfall, arrived in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) on Monday as production in the region was still struggling to come back following the devastation of Hurricane Ida. Ida made landfall in Louisiana on Aug. 29, and more than of the natural gas produced in the GOM pre-Ida remained offline when Nicholas struck Texas late Monday, amplifying already festering output concerns.Production for two weeks held around or below 90 Bcf in Ida’s wake.The October Nymex surged 29.3 cents to $5.231/MMBtu on Monday. The prompt month had advanced 5% last week and 8% the previous week, extending upward momentum gathered over the summer.Demand proved strong throughout the summer months amid scorching heat over much of the Lower 48. At the same time, utilities in Europe and Asia clamored for U.S. LNG because of supply constraints on both continents following a long, cold winter earlier this year followed by a hot summer.LNG exports are soaking up supply and feeding imbalance worries. LNG feed gas volumes topped 11 Bcf on several days in September – hanging near record levels reached earlier in the summer.The unyielding overall demand comes as producers are keeping a lid on production. After closing 2019 at around 96 Bcf/d, U.S. output dropped to an average below 91 Bcf/d in 2020 and has held near that level so far in 2021, Andrus said. U.S. exploration and production (E&P) companies cut back last year after the coronavirus pandemic temporarily crushed demand. The E&Ps have remained conservative this year amid ongoing uncertainty imposed by virus variants.

U.S. natgas jumps 3% to fresh 7-year high on soaring global prices - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbedover 3% to a fresh seven-year high on Wednesday, forcing some speculators to exit short positions, as soaring global gas prices kept demand for U.S. exports high and Gulf of Mexico production remained slow to return from Hurricane Ida over two weeks ago.Traders noted U.S. prices gained despite forecasts for less hot weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.Much of that expected demand decline came from the shutdown of the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas during Tropical Storm Nicholas on Tuesday and upcoming planned maintenance at Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland that should start early next week.Freeport was expected to take on more gas on Wednesday, which traders said was a sign that the plant was returning to service. Freeport, however, said the plant remains offline while the local power company makes repairs to its system.Despite the Freeport outage, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 10.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, up from 10.5 bcfd in August, as buyers around the world keep purchasing all the super-chilled gas the United States can produce. That compares with a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April. Gas in Europe and Asia traded near $23 and $19 per mmBtu, respectively, compared with just over $5 for the U.S. fuel. Gas at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, the European benchmark, was at a record high earlier in the day. "It’s clear that U.S. LNG exports will remain in high demand this winter, and the aggressive increase in international prices has continually raised the bar at which domestic consumers would need to reach to price out these exports and encourage more gas to stay stateside," analysts said. Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 20.0 cents, or 3.8%, to settle at $5.460 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since February 2014 for a third day in a row. That also keeps the front-month in overbought territory for a sixth consecutive day. Since Hurricane Ida entered the Gulf of Mexico in late August, gas prices have soared 35% due to the slow return of production after Ida, hotter than normal U.S. weather and high air conditioning demand this summer, record global gas prices and lower than normal gas inventories in the United States and Europe ahead of the winter heating season, when demand for the fuel peaks. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to an average of 90.2 bcfd so far in September, from 92.0 bcfd in August, due mostly to Ida-related losses along the Gulf Coast. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.

US natural gas storage fields add more than market expects, prompting price slide - US working natural gas in storage rose more than the market expected for the second consecutive week as demand in the South Central region fell more than anticipated. Storage fields injected 83 Bcf in the week ended Sept. 10, well above the 70 Bcf build that an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts expected. The build was above the five-year average of 79 Bcf, but below an 86 Bcf injection in the corresponding week a year ago. Working gas inventories totalled 3.006 Tcf, the US Energy Information Administration reported Sept. 16. US storage volumes now stand 595 Bcf, or 16.5%, below the year-ago level of 3.601 Tcf and 231 Bcf, or 7.1%, below the five-year average of 3.273 Tcf. The latest injection proved more than the 52 Bcf build reported the week prior. EIA's South Central region drove the bulk of the week-on-week change as storage fields rose 22 Bcf rather than post a withdrawal. The lingering effects of Hurricane Ida once again cast uncertainty over the markets heading into this week's inventory report. While the supply loss can be readily quantified because of extensive tie-ins between offshore Gulf of Mexico production and interstate pipeline systems, the effects on demand are nebulous at best. This is because expansive intrastate systems traversing the Gulf region and connecting with industrial facilities don't fall under the same reporting requirements that interstate systems do. Henry Hub futures remained above $5/MMBtu despite shedding some prior gains following the release of the weekly storage report. The NYMEX Henry Hub October contract slid 13 cents to $5.33/MMBtu. The winter strip — November through March — shed 16 cents to $5.35/MMBtu, still 34 cents above the strip a week ago. Henry Hub spot prices broke above $5/MMBtu Sept. 10 although offshore production returned to slightly over 1 Bcf/d, according to Platts Analytics. It was the first time the benchmark breached $5/MMBtu since March 2014, with the exception of Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 and another two-day spike seen in January 2018. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 52 Bcf build for the week ending Sept. 17. This would measure 22 Bcf below the five-year average with less than two months remaining in the injection season. The week after points to a 57-Bcf injection, which would grow the storage deficit by another 15 Bcf. There has been an uptick in power burn demand during the week in progress, which has carried modeled demand estimates higher by 1.2 Bcf/d week on week. Additionally, offshore production has begun to rebound, rising nearly 700 MMcf/d on the week, although current offshore production remains less than half what it was prior to the late August storm.

October Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Lose Ground Amid Signs of Waning Demand - Natural gas futures lost momentum on Thursday after a fierce rally that sent the prompt month more than 50 cents higher over the three previous sessions. Traders took profits after weather forecasts shifted cooler and a government inventory report showed a larger storage injection than expected.The October Nymex contract declined 12.5 cents day/day and settled at $5.335/MMBtu. November also fell 12.5 cents and closed at $5.382.Cash prices pulled back as well. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 19.0 cents to $5.340.Forecasts backed off “the level of heat projected in the pattern over the next couple of weeks, drastically lowering” expected cooling-degree days without significantly increasing any heating-degree days, Bespoke Weather Services said. “The source of the change comes with more eastern U.S. troughing, erasing above normal temperatures for most areas east of the Mississippi River in the medium range” and “leaving us with what is now a weak overall demand picture” for the rest of September.Liquefied natural gas (LNG) export volumes were also down on the day to around 9 Bcf after hovering near 11 Bcf for much of the summer. This came after power outages caused by former Hurricane Nicholas, which arrived in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) early this week. The storm knocked out power at the Freeport LNG terminal near Houston, interrupting flows of the super-chilled fuel.Additionally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported an injection of 83 Bcf into natural gas storage for the week ended Sept. 10. The print was higher than expected. Participants on The Desk’s online energy platform Enelyst said the aftershocks of Hurricane Ida – cooling rains and flooding — appeared to impact demand during the covered week more than estimated. That resulted in a solid increase in South Central storage, in addition to gains in the Midwest and East. Ida crashed into Louisiana on Aug. 29.The Midwest and East regions led with builds of 34 Bcf and 29 Bcf, respectively, according to EIA. The South Central build of 22 Bcf followed.Surveys had pointed to expectations for a build in the 70s Bcf. NGI estimated a 72 Bcf increase. The prior five-year average was an increase of 79 Bcf. For the comparable week a year earlier, EIA recorded a build of 86 Bcf.However, “we do not feel this number tells us much, as some of the bigger build is still due to Ida’s impact,” Bespoke said of the EIA print. It is “not something the market is likely to view as a game-changer that solves the storage situation as we head toward the winter season.”

October Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Languish as Forecasters See Weather Demand Tapering - Natural gas futures on Friday dipped lower for a second consecutive day as traders mulled forecasts for milder temperatures, the specter of easing demand and the potential for stronger storage injections ahead. The October Nymex contract dropped 23.0 cents day/day and settled at $5.105/MMBtu. November fell 23.6 cents to $5.146. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 19.0 cents to $5.150, led lower by declines in Texas. Weather forecasts for the remainder of September shifted bearish again Friday – after shedding several cooling degree days (CDD) on Thursday – signaling the potential for solid increases to stockpiles in the coming weeks. This calmed fears of a low storage trajectory ahead of the peak winter demand season. Such fears had fueled a major rally earlier in the week that lifted futures to 2021 highs. “The reduced CDDs outweigh any minor” gains in heating demand, “giving us a slightly lower demand look, overall, and a below normal demand pattern, in total, for the balance of the month,” Bespoke Weather Services said Friday. The firm said the outlook for October, meanwhile, showed above average temperatures, though at that time of year, warmth translates into mild temperatures that galvanize neither heating nor cooling demand. “It is still early in the weather game, but these trends will start becoming more important the next couple of weeks,” Bespoke said. The latest forecast was “not enough to end the bull story, but, in our view, is pushing things to the point where we will need to see some decent cold” to consistently support futures above $5.00 this fall. “Until we see the weather, volatility likely rules.” U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export levels also declined during the past week – down more than 2 Bcf/d from the prior week – after Hurricane Nicholas struck the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and knocked out power at the Freeport LNG terminal near Houston. The latest storage report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) helped deflate supply worries. EIA on Thursday reported an injection of 83 Bcf into natural gas storage for the week ended Sept. 10, higher than the 70s Bcf print predicted by major surveys. If mild conditions prevail in coming weeks and utilities add similar levels to stockpiles, Bespoke said the market would be on track for 3.5 Tcf in underground supplies for winter. That is well below the year-earlier level of about 3.9 Tcf, but the firm said it could prove sufficient barring an extremely cold winter.

Natural Gas Prices Can Still Double From Here - --Natural gas prices have hit their highest levels since 2014, outpacing oil and many other commodities. On Monday, natural gas futures were trading up 2.6% to $5.09 per million British thermal units (BTUs), their highest settlement price since February 2014. Natural gas prices are up 117.6% in the year-to-date, while the biggest nat. gas benchmark, the United States Natural Gas ETFis up 88.6% over the timeframe. The sticker shock is even greater in other key natural gas markets around the globe, with East Asian benchmark futures and European natural gas spot prices have climbed 4-5 times year-ago levels to $18 per MMBtu.Yet, some experts are now saying that this rally is far from over.Stan Brownell, an analyst at Argus Media, and Luke Jackson, an analyst at S&P Global Platts, figure that Henry Hub prices would have to jump to $10 or more to provide an incentive to fulfill domestic natural gas demand. That would mean a doubling of natural gas prices from current levels to levels last seen in 2008 when the U.S. produced about 40% less natural gas An unusually cold winter in Europe as well as a global rebound from Covid-19 have triggered strong demand and depleted natural gas inventories. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ida has knocked out a considerable amount of gas production, with 77% of oil and gas production still offline in the Gulf of Mexico. According to U.S. government statistics, natural gas inventories are currently 17% lower compared to a year ago and 7.4% below the five-year average.To catch up to the five-year average storage level by early winter, U.S. natural gas producers need to inject roughly 90.4 billion cubic feet each week from now, about 40% higher than the five-year average weekly buildup clip. The latest data by the Energy Information Administration shows that nat. Gas inventories climbed 52 bcf last week, way below what is required to build enough stockpiles for the winter.Interestingly, the analysts note that U.S. consumption isn't really the driving force behind the strong price action. Indeed, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, domestic natural-gas consumption through June was in line with 2020 levels. The real culprit here is robust international demand for natural gas as well as a fast-growing U.S. LNG sector. Asia and Europe still need to stock up more to prepare for the winter, and much of their supplies will have to come from the U.S. because non-U.S. LNG exporters have mostly been down with maintenance-related snags. For instance, Russia, Europe's most important natural-gas provider, has been slowing its deliveries. Natural gas inventories in Europe are currently a whopping 16% below the five-year average and at a record low for September. Meanwhile, continuous unplanned outages at LNG export facilities in several countries, including Australia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Algeria, Norway, and Trinidad and Tobago, have contributed to increased demand for U.S. LNG.

LNG growth helps support US gas pipeline construction through 2026 - LNG export facilities and their demand for supplies will drive a large portion of U.S. natural gas pipeline construction through 2026, according to an analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Of the 45 pipeline projects projected to come online over the next five years, at least 16 are tied to liquefaction terminals that are operating or under development on the Gulf Coast, with six export facilities expected to begin commercial service in 2024 alone. Other pipeline projects are designed to bring gas to utility distribution systems, power generation plants and other end uses. Venture Global LNG plans to build just over 400 miles of gas pipelines to serve its proposed Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines and Delta LNG terminals, which would have a combined production capacity of 50 million tonnes per year of LNG. Tellurian Inc., meanwhile, has 323 miles of pipeline under development for the planned Driftwood LNG LLC terminal, anticipated to begin construction in 2022. The company also said it may buy up more acreage in the Haynesville Shale or enter into a business combination that would allow it to fill out its upstream portfolio. LNG is the fossil fuel poised to have the biggest earnings advantage as the North American midstream sector’s great pipeline build-out cycle winds down, according to a July Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. report. In 2022, capital expenditure for most midstream companies is expected to be minimal, and “in some cases, over 70% lower than 2019 levels for the company,” analysts wrote. With traditional natural gas maintaining a slower growth curve and facing minimal rate reduction risks as hurdles to new infrastructure construction get higher in the U.S., LNG will perform best when it comes to long-term volumes, Bernstein said. Overseas demand for gas supply in Asia and Europe is lifting the prospects for the fuel. Other LNG projects putting pipe in the ground through 2026 will include NextDecade Corp.’s Rio Grande, Sempra’s Port Arthur, and Exxon Mobil Corp. and Qatar Petroleum’s Golden Pass. Delays in the development of Port Arthur, however, recently prompted Polish Oil and Gas Co. to end a deal for buying 2 Mt/y of LNG from the facility and to sign similar agreements to purchase the same amount from Venture Global terminals. Sempra executives also confirmed the expiration of a deal with Saudi Arabian Oil Co. to finalize a supply agreement for 5 Mt/y of LNG from Port Arthur LNG terminal and take a 25% stake in the project’s first phase.

Oil-soaked birds found near oil spill at refinery after Ida (AP) — Louisiana wildlife officials say they have documented more than 100 oil-soaked birds after crude oil spilled from a refinery flooded during Hurricane Ida.The Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries said Thursday that a growing number of oiled birds had been observed within heavy pockets of oil throughout the Phillips 66 Alliance Refinery in Belle Chasse, Louisiana.Ten oiled birds have been captured and transported to a rehabilitation location for cleaning. Five additional dead birds were recovered and bagged as evidence. Efforts to save more birds are ongoing. The affected species include black-bellied whistling ducks, blue-winged teal and a variety of egrets.Other animals were also seen covered in oil, include alligators, nutria and river otters.

More Than 100 Birds Found Coated in Oil After Ida - More than 100 birds have been found covered with oil following a spill linked to Hurricane Ida's path through the Gulf of Mexico late last month.The Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries (LDWF) said Thursday that the birds were impacted by a spill at the Alliance Refinery in Belle Chasse, Louisiana."The number of oiled birds documented, with more expected, have been observed within heavy pockets of crude oil throughout the facility as well as nearby flooded fields and retention ponds," the LDWF said. As of Thursday, 10 birds had been captured and taken to a rehabilitation center for cleaning, state biologist Jon Wiebe told The AP. A total of five birds had been found dead. LDWF said that the bird species impacted by the spill included black-bellied whistling ducks, blue-winged teal and a variety of egret species. Alligators, river otters and nutria were also found partly covered in oil. The department said it could take weeks to save the affected wildlife.The news comes as the U.S. Coast Guard investigates hundreds of oil spills in the wake of Hurricane Ida, which made landfall August 29, CNN reported. One example is a miles-long spill about two miles from Port Fourchon, Louisiana that divers believed emerged from a broken pipeline.The Coast Guard is currently prioritizing around 350 of the spills, which range from "minor to potentially notable pollution reporting," Coast Guard Petty Officer Gabriel Wisdom told CNN.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency further said on Thursday that it had received 43 notifications of significant inland oil spills or chemical releases following the storm, according to The AP.The Alliance Refinery spill was first reported by The AP September 1. The refinery is owned by Phillips 66, which initially downplayed reports of the spill. However, a Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality investigation revealed that a levee had breached during the storm, allowing water to first flood the plant and then rush back out. The crude oil spill was being cleaned with booms and absorbent pads, the department said. Still, a spokesperson for Phillips 66 has continued to minimize the damage."The breach has been secured," spokesperson Bernardo Fallas told The AP Thursday. "Clean-up crews continue to remove oil and sheen contained within some flooded areas of the refinery. There has been no offsite impact. We continue to work with all appropriate regulatory agencies."While there are no official estimates of how much oil has spilled, the refinery has the capacity to process more than 255,000 barrels of crude oil a day. As of Thursday, it remained closed with no date fixed for reopening.

Hurricane Ida oil spills 'mind-boggling,' but likely not as bad as Katrina, Rita -- The seaplane barely lifted off the water before Naomi Yoder spotted the first oil spill. Just south of Belle Chasse, Yoder, a scientist with environmental group Healthy Gulf, pointed to the rainbow sheen covering the floodwaters that Hurricane Ida threw across the 2,400-acre Phillips 66 Alliance Refinery complex. Farther south near the mouth of the Mississippi River, Yoder found shrimp boats chugging past a sheen more than nine miles long. South of Port Fourchon, where Ida made landfall on Aug. 29, was a cluster of rusted and storm-ravaged platforms oozing long, thin trails of oil. On the return trip, the plane flew over at least four patches of oil in the fragile marshes rimming Barataria Bay. “It’s mind-boggling,” Yoder said Friday after Healthy Gulf’s fourth flight to monitor the spills left in Ida’s wake. “It’s definitely a surprise to see what’s out there. It’s always more than you expect to find.” Two weeks after the Category 4 hurricane struck the Louisiana coast, it remains a daunting task to determine the number of spills and the volume of oil and other chemicals that ended up in the water. More than 2,300 spills have been reported to the Coast Guard, and about 900 have yet to be investigated. The spills that have been checked range from small fuel leaks off boats to the miles-long sheens from oil platforms. If there's any good news in the preliminary tallies, it is that the volume confirmed to have been spilled so far is significantly less than the 10.8 million barrels released during hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. Still, the accumulation of spilled oil from repeated hurricanes since then has scientists worried. “A lot of the pictures I’ve seen [of Ida spills] are in coastal areas where there’s a lot of old infrastructure," said Don Boesch, a professor of marine sciences at the University of Maryland. "That indicates a background question of longer-term contamination. Companies are leaving a lot of wells more or less plugged, but they could be releasing oil." Coast Guard setting up pollution response team in Louisiana after reports of dozens of oil spills and sheens Coast Guard setting up pollution response team in Louisiana after reports of dozens of oil spills and sheens Boesch cited a recent federal audit that found energy regulators are letting oil and gas companies abandon pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico at an increasing rate. “About 90% of the time, the regulators have decided to let [companies] leave pipelines in place,” Boesch said. “So now we’ve got about 18,000 miles of pipeline that are not active and just sitting in the Gulf.” The U.S. Government Accountability Office audit also determined that regulators rarely conduct or require underwater pipeline inspections, leaving about 9,000 miles of active pipelines largely unchecked. “There are a lot of questions about how those pipelines are holding up to storms and coastal erosion,” Boesch said. “We often don’t know where those pipelines are. They were put in at a time when companies didn’t have to report [locations] accurately or have the technology to say precisely where they are."

How Much Gulf of Mexico Production is Still Offline? The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement’s (BSEE) latest estimates show that approximately 48.56 percent of the current oil production and approximately 54.39 percent of the current gas production in the Gulf of Mexico is still shut in as a result of hurricane Ida.This corresponds to 883,755 barrels of oil per day and over 1.2 billion cubic feet of gas per day, according to the BSEE. The organization highlighted that personnel remain evacuated from a total of 63 production platforms, or 11.25 percent of the 560 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, and one non-dynamically positioned rig, which is equivalent to 9.09 percent of the 11 rigs of this type currently operating in the region. A total of two dynamically positioned rigs also remain off location, representing 13.33 percent of the 15 dynamically positioned rigs currently operating in the Gulf.“The Hurricane Response Team continues to monitor offshore oil and gas operators in the Gulf as they return to platforms and rigs after the storm,” the BSEE said in an organization statement. “The team works with offshore operators and other state and federal agencies until operations return to normal,” the organization added in the statement.The BSEE first activated its hurricane response team due to Ida back on August 27, as the storm began entering the Gulf of Mexico. At its peak, Ida shut in 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on August 29 and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on August 31, BSEE figures show. While Ida is no longer being tracked by the National Hurricane Center, several other weather patterns are. At the time of writing, four other disturbances were being monitored by the group, including tropical storm Nicholas, which had maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour and a five mile per hour north-northwest movement as of Monday, 7am CDT, according to the NHC.

IEA: Oil Supply Losses From Hurricane Ida Reach 30 Million Barrels - Hurricane Ida, which stormed through Louisiana at the end of August, has led to oil supply losses of 30 million barrels so far, driving the first decline in global oil supply in five months and pushing global inventories sharply down, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday. Initially, Hurricane Ida shut in as much as 1.74 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production, or 95.65 percent of the total crude pumped in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. On the day when the hurricane made landfall, a total of 288 production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were evacuated. This was more than half of the manned platforms in the Gulf.Due to the storm's severity and the damage identified at some offshore platforms and facilities, crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been slow to restart.Two weeks after Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana on August 29, a total of 43.60 percent of the Gulf of Mexico's oil production, or 793,522 bpd, was still shut in as of September 13, according to data from the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE)."Unexpected outages during August forced a decline in supply for the first time in five months and extended the sharp drawdown in global oil stocks. The most severe by far was Hurricane Ida, which wreaked havoc on the key US Gulf Coast oil producing region at the end of August, knocking 1.7 mb/d offline," the IEA said in its Oil Market Report for September published today.The impact of Hurricane Ida "is still causing problems for US and global markets," said the agency. "Offshore installations and refineries have been slow to restart due to the severity of the storm, forcing massive stock draws of both crude and products in key markets. The biggest impact on supply will be seen in September, with total supply losses estimated at around 30 mb," the IEA noted.

Here’s Why U.S. Oil Supplies Took Such Big Hit From Ida – Bloomberg Hurricane Ida unleashed such furious winds and waves that almost two weeks later oil drillers, power suppliers and refiners are still picking up the pieces. They won’t be done any time soon. The damage to offshore platforms, pipelines and even heli-pads was so severe that two out of every three barrels of crude normally pumped from the U.S. sector of the Gulf of Mexico are unavailable. The ripple effects are still playing out as refiners and brokers scour the globe for replacements and the Gulf’s biggest oil producer, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, tells some customers it can’t honor supply commitments. The damage to offshore platforms, pipelines and even heli-pads was so severe that two out of every three barrels of crude normally pumped from the U.S. sector of the Gulf of Mexico are unavailable. The ripple effects are still playing out as refiners and brokers scour the globe for replacements and the Gulf’s biggest oil producer, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, tells some customers it can’t honor supply commitments. It will be weeks -- maybe longer -- before normal conditions can be restored off the Louisiana coast and in the warren of oil-processing and chemical plants that occupies a 100-mile (160-kilometer) corridor from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. Recovery efforts may be hindered by Tropical Storm Nicholas, which gained power Monday as it headed toward the coast of Texas, likely bringing flooding rains to Houston and Louisiana. “What’s different is this is lasting longer,” Bert Winders, 63, a Baker Hughes Co. health and safety director, said in reference to how Ida’s disruption compared with previous hurricanes. “It’s just demanding on people. Three to five days, they can deal with. But when you start talking two, three, even four weeks, that’s really tough on a family.” The recovery efforts are being closely watched around the world in large part because of the unprecedented scale and duration of the oil outages. Within days of the hurricane, traders were seizing on arbitrage opportunities created by the disappearance of some U.S. Gulf grades of oil such as Mars blend. For example, crude from Russia’s Ural Mountains is a popular alternative to Mars because they share similar characteristics. Ida’s drawn-out aftermath offers a chastening glimpse of what may be in store as climate change fuels ever-more furious storms along low-lying coastal regions dotted with heavy industry and vital fuel-making facilities. Typically, when tropical storms and hurricanes menace the oil-producing region of the Gulf, drillers batten down hatches, shut off the subsea wells funneling oil up to platforms and evacuate crews. When the skies clear, they often can chopper inspection teams back out in a matter of hours or days and resume production shortly thereafter. When Louisiana was battered by Hurricane Laura last year, offshore crude output bounced back quickly. Direct Hit After Ida, that wasn’t remotely possible. The monster storm’s direct hit on Port Fourchon a few hours before sundown on Aug. 29 completely disabled the primary jumping-off point for helicopters and vessels that service hundreds of offshore platforms and rigs. Even the lone road connecting Port Fourchon to the rest of the state -- Louisiana Highway 1 -- was knocked out of commission by Ida’s massive wall of sea water and the tons of sand it swept ahead. “When Port of Fourchon is out of service, it breaks a link in the chain,”

Most Louisiana refineries have restarted but oil production lagging -- Most of the nine Louisiana refineries shut by Hurricane Ida have restarted or were restarting on Friday, nearly two weeks after the powerful storm came ashore, a Reuters survey shows.Refiners are coming back faster than oil production, a reverse of past storm recoveries. Just three of the nine refineries were completely idled, accounting for about 7% of Gulf Coast refining, compared to shut-ins of two-thirds of oil output.The state’s two largest refineries—Marathon Petroleum in Garyville and Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Baton Rouge plant—returned to operation. Valero Energy Corp.’s Meraux refinery on the Mississippi River east of New Orleans was restarting units Friday, and the company was also prepping its St. Charles refinery to restart, Reuters reports.Meanwhile, Phillips 66’s plant in Belle Chasse —which had been put up for sale shortly before the storm—faces months of repairs. Get the full update about additional Louisiana refineries from Reuters.Meanwhile, nearly half of U.S. offshore oil production remains out of service two weeks after Ida barreled through the Gulf as a Category 4 hurricane, making it the most damaging storm for the region’s output in more than 15 years, The Wall Street Journal reports. Offshore producers evacuated 288 platforms before Ida, more than half the total platforms in the Gulf.Shell says a significant amount of production remains offline, and the company wouldn’t say when it will be fully restored. The company’s biggest concern is the Mars corridor, its largest source of production in the Gulf, where its three biggest platforms were damaged. Damage onshore has been the primary obstacle to recovery. Key ports and airports were knocked out, slowing the redeployment of staff and equipment. Oil and gas processing plants and other critical onshore facilities were damaged or remain without electricity. Companies are also contending with COVID-19, which has spread through their workforce. Read the full story.

 Biden admin ends pandemic-era offshore oil royalty breaks - The Biden administration has ended an offshore oil royalty break approved last year to support operators as the COVID-19 pandemic drove crude prices down.The global freeze on economic activity in 2020 drove oil prices to historic lows. In response, some oil and gas drillers pressed the Trump administration for extensions to their federal leases or a break on paying royalties for producing public minerals (E&E Daily, Sept. 9, 2019).In response, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) offered a special case royalty relief option for offshore drillers. That will no longer be available, the agency announced today.Of the 110 requests from offshore oil producers for a royalty reduction though this unique avenue, 70 were granted some form of relief, according to BSEE.The agency said the royalty cut for “non-drilling” activities was offered to stave off “premature abandonment and stranding of oil and gas reserves” and is no longer considered necessary.Since April 2020, the special case royalty relief was granted to roughly 3.5% of active offshore oil and natural gas leases on the outer continental shelf — the federal waters managed by the Interior Department.Interior has two avenues for royalty rate reductions offshore, which are still available under federal law.Royalty cuts during the pandemic came under fire from environmental groups and government watchdog organizations that said the relief, which was also sought by onshore oil drillers on public land and coal producers, would short the public of revenue and encourage production of oil in an already saturated market (Energywire, May 20, 2020).

DOE Awards SPR Oil Sale Contracts - The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management has revealed that contracts have been awarded from a recent congressionally mandated Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil sale. A total of 15 companies responded and 104 bids were submitted for evaluation, following a notice of sale of up to 20 million barrels of SPR crude oil issued by the DOE on August 23. Contracts were awarded to the following eight companies:

• Atlantic Trading & Marketing, Inc.
• Chevron USA
• ExxonMobil Oil Corporation
• Marathon Petroleum Supply and Trading, LLC
• Motiva Enterprises, LLC
• Phillips 66 Company
• Unipec America, Inc.
• Valero Marketing and Supply Company

Oil will be sold from each of the four underground salt cavern SPR sites as part of the latest crude sale. Out of the 20 million barrels of crude oil awarded, 5.1 million will be sold from the SPR’s Bryan Mound site, 6.1 million will be sold from the West Hackberry site, 750,000 will be sold from the Bayou Choctaw site and 8.05 million will be sold from the Big Hill site. The SPR plans to schedule deliveries between October 1 and December 15. The DOE noted that the congressionally mandated sale fulfills requirements of Sections 403 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 and partially fulfills Section 30204 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018. The proceeds of the sale will be deposited in the U.S. Treasury by the end of the fiscal year, the DOE confirmed.

Would Biden's oil freeze increase emissions? - E&E News - Oil industry backers are bringing an Obama-era report to their playbook against the Biden administration’s drilling policies, warning that a federal leasing freeze could increase greenhouse gas emissions. The argument, from a 2016 Interior Department analysis, is that if the U.S. doesn’t develop oil offshore, where emissions from production are comparatively low, someone else will — potentially with a dirtier oil and gas drilling record. “[Emissions] could, in fact, increase slightly in the absence of new [outer continental shelf] leasing,” the report said. Analysts from Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy have reached similar conclusions about the impact of shuttering offshore oil and gas. But other experts and climate activists say the Obama-era analysis is based on a debunked narrative and should be rewritten by President Biden’s Interior, which oversees the oil and gas program. Joel Clement, a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said the report is “deeply flawed.” “[Interior] should revise the report to better serve the public interest — and to avoid the embarrassment of having such a flawed report out there,” said Clement, who formerly worked on climate issues at Interior but left the Trump administration in protest of what he saw as suppression of climate science. The spat pits the White House and conservationists against allies of the offshore oil industry and is the latest battle to emerge over Biden’s intent to reform the federal oil and gas program. The differing conclusions about the report stem from different assumptions about factors such as whether demand for oil to fuel cars, planes and power plants will stay constant or decline. Oil and gas interests have amplified the findings in recent months as a defense against perceived plans in the Biden administration to curb federal oil drilling. The White House is aiming to slash economy wide greenhouse gas emissions 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, and one of Biden’s first actions in office was to freeze the federal oil and gas leasing program to review its climate impact.

U.S. shale oil firm Pioneer Natural launches land sale - – Top US shale oil producer Pioneer Natural Resources Co. has placed its assets on a block in Texas’s Delaware Basin, aiming to secure more than $2 billion for assets, two sources familiar with the matter said. told Businesshala on Friday. . A strong rebound in crude oil prices after last year’s pandemic crash triggered a wave of shale consolidation and opened a window for producers to offload unwanted assets. After two major acquisitions this year, Pioneer is looking to streamline its business and reduce debt. In March, it sold an oil field services business for an undisclosed amount. There was no guarantee that Pioneer would close the deal. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A sale would leave Pioneer focused on the Midland part of the Permian, its traditional base. The assets now up for sale were acquired with the purchase of Parsley Energy for $4.5 billion, sources said. There are about 350 wells of parsley in four counties in the Delaware Basin. Pioneer Chief Executive Scott Sheffield told investors last week that the company would split some of its less-productive acreage in Delaware and the Midland Basin in Texas. Pioneer completed two multi-billion dollar acquisitions this year. After closing its parsley deal in January, Pioneer struck a $6.2 billion deal for Midland-Bassin rival Doublepoint Energy. According to regulatory filings, the deals pushed Pioneer’s total debt to $6.9 billion at the end of June, up from $3.1 billion six months earlier. As part of a broader industry focus on improving investor sentiment after years of substandard returns compared to other economic sectors, US shale firms are promoting buybacks and dividends.

Carlsbad City Council approves easement for oil pipeline Carlsbad City Councilors approved an easement for a crude oil pipeline operation in Eddy County Sept. 14. Oryx Delaware Oil Transport of Midland, Texas requested a pipeline easement and right-of-way agreement with the City of Carlsbad to place a section of pipeline on city owned property, said City of Carlsbad Administrator John Lowe in a memorandum to councilors. Oryx is building a pipeline crude oil transportation network from Eddy County to Texas. “The easement will be utilized to connect new oil production to an existing Oryx gathering system as part of our continuing commitment to safely and reliably transport crude oil for Eddy County producers and reduce truck traffic on New Mexico roads,” said Meredith Howard, spokesperson for Oryx. In the memo, Lowe said the City owned property was located at Western Farms near the intersection of U.S. Refinery Road and Old Post Road. City of Carlsbad documents cited the easement would have a 50-foot width, a 30-foot permanent easement and a 20-foot temporary construction easement. Length of the easement was scheduled to be 8,863 linear feet across the City owned property south of Carlsbad, per city documents. Oryx offered $188,000 compensation to the City of Carlsbad for the easement, Lowe said in the memo.

Climate scientists argue Line 5 tunnel would emit harmful emissions -Climate scientists on behalf of environmental groups and Native American tribes opposed to a controversial tunnel for Line 5 in the Straits of Mackinac are contending the construction would emit "excessive greenhouse gas emissions" harmful to the climate, according to documents filed with the state. The Environmental Law & Policy Center and the Michigan Climate Action Network filed written testimony from these experts with the Michigan Public Service Commission, which is reviewing whether to approve a permit for the $500 million project proposed by Enbridge Energy. Both groups say they were allowed last spring to present expert witnesses to show how the climate is impacted by Line 5 as part of a meaningful environmental review of the permit request before the commission. Peter Erickson, a greenhouse gas emissions expert and senior scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute affiliated with Tufts University, said in his testimony that "when compared to a scenario in which the existing Line 5 pipeline no longer operates, construction and operation of the proposed project would lead to an increase of about 27 million metric tons CO2e annually in global greenhouse gas emissions from the production and combustion of oil." \ Another expert, Peter Howard, the economics director at the Institute for Policy Integrity at New York University School of Law, said from 2027 to 2070 the average annual climate costs would approximate $1 billion each year over this period, "plus significant unmonetized climate effects and other unquantified pollution costs to human health and the environment." "The solution to the risk of an oil spill in the Great Lakes is simple: stop operating the existing pipelines," said Margrethe Kearney, senior attorney at the Environmental Law & Policy Center. "The question of what Enbridge can and should do once the existing lines shut down is a separate question, and it is clear that construction of a tunnel under the Straits is not the answer, because it will have a devastating impact on Michigan’s natural resources by contributing to the climate crisis.” Enbridge defended its proposed tunnel as environmentally safe and even cited testimony filed by commission staff that gave support to the soundness of the project. “Staff concludes that the replacement of the dual pipelines with a new pipeline in a tunnel below the lakebed serves a public need, is in the public interest, and is the best option” from the other alternatives, according to Travis Warner, a public utility engineer specialist with the commission.

Memphis aquifer gains protection from Shelby Commission – Nearly a year of protests and political debates culminated in the Shelby County Commission passing a one-of-a-kind ordinance to protect the county’s sole source of drinking water. The Shelby County Commissions voted 10-0—Commissioners David Bradford and Amber Mills abstained—in support of an ordinance to prevent pipelines from being built within 1,500 feet of most residential areas, such as churches and schools, in a move seen by civil rights advocates as a form of environmental justice. The Memphis City Council will vote on a similar ordinance next week to create a joint-motion to amend the Memphis and Shelby County unified development code. Concern for the aquifer started more than a year ago when Plains All American Pipeline and Valero Energy Corporation announced their plans in 2019 to build the 49-mile Byhalia pipeline through a historic Black community in Southwest Memphis into Mississippi. Civil-rights advocates complained that the Black neighborhoods were already burdened by decades of pollution from nearby power plants, leading to cancer risks at four-times the national average. The area’s Memphis Sand Aquifer provides the city with natural drinking water, but because the pipeline would pass through the Davis Wellfield, pipeline critics worried crude oil would seep into the aquifer through the wellfield. Critics also alleged that clear regulatory gaps led to the Byhalia project receiving the necessary permits without needing to conduct environmental impact reports. The Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC) filed suit on behalf of the Memphis Community Against the Pipeline and Protect Our Aquifer, among other organizations, against the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for issuing a permit to allow the corps to fast track the pipeline project. The SELC eventually dropped its suit against the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Facing a court-ordered pipeline shutdown, Spire aims to take dispute to the Supreme Court — Spire’s push to keep operating a legally imperiled natural gas pipeline now rests on a sudden flurry of three parallel moves. Federal regulators on Tuesday issued an emergency certificate allowing the St. Louis-based natural gas utility to continue running its Spire STL Pipeline for another 90 days. The company hails the two-year-old project as critical to the region’s gas supply, but in June the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia revoked the pipeline’s approval. Spire also filed late Monday a motion to stay the decision, which would have otherwise shut down the pipeline on Tuesday, a week after the court denied Spire’s request to rehear the case. Additionally, Spire’s motion indicated that the company would file a petition to bring the case before the U.S. Supreme Court. The utility has hired high-profile lawyers to assist in the fight, including Eugene Scalia, son of the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, and Theodore Olson, who has argued for the winning sides in major Supreme Court cases — such as the Bush v. Gore case that decided the 2000 presidential election, and Citizens United, which solidified the role of corporate spending in politics. The 65-mile pipeline runs connects St. Louis with Scott County in Illinois, where it connects to a national network. The company argues that extreme weather events like February’s widespread deep freeze across the central U.S. have illustrated the pipeline’s importance, since the St. Louis region was largely able to avoid gas supply problems and skyrocketing costs that plagued places such as Texas and western parts of Missouri. But that question about the line’s necessity remains at the heart of the case. The D.C. ruling in June said that the need for the project was never adequately demonstrated or justified, thanks to factors including the St. Louis area’s roughly flat demand for natural gas over the past two decades.

AG: Spike in natural gas prices appears to break Kansas law (AP) — Attorney General Derek Schmidt said Monday that sharp spikes in natural gas prices last winter appear to violate Kansas law and he is seeking outside legal help to investigate them.Schmidt’s office said it is looking to retain a law firm with expertise in the natural gas marketplace to help with the probe and any potential civil litigation aimed at enforcing the state’s anti-profiteering law.His office opened an investigation in February to determine whether the price increases violate state law, Schmidt said. “State law prohibits ‘unjustified’ price increases for ‘necessary’ goods and services during a declared state of disaster emergency, and on their face these increases appear to violate Kansas law,” Schmidt said in a news release. “Our investigation has reached a point where additional resources and expertise in the complicated natural gas marketplace are required.”Kansas utility regulators have decided they can’t investigate whether natural gas utilities were price-gouged by interstate suppliers. Instead, the Kansas Corporation Commission is concentrating its efforts on creating payment plans for customers, the Wichita Eagle reported.Utilities are proposing to spread those costs over a five to 10 years to avoid a massive rate shock for consumers.

Concerns Over Oil And Gas Pipeline In Northern Wisconsin - Concerns are flaring over a pipeline that carries crude oil and natural gas from western Canada. Enbridge, a Canadian company, owns the 645-mile line constructed nearly 70 years ago. The line starts in Superior, WI and ends at the southernmost point of Lake Huron. The State of Michigan is worried about a potential leak in the section that crosses under the Straits of Mackinac. In Wisconsin, the pipeline cuts across Ashland County. People there are concerned about the potential risks posed to their water-rich region. Jamie Dunn shared his concerns on a stroll just south of the city of Mellen. He walked along a path through a lush carpet of ferns, under a canopy of old growth trees. Dunn spent a lot of time in this region throughout his 30-year career as a hydrologist with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. “We’re in the upper reaches of the Bad River watershed. Many streams all feed into the Bad River, which then discharges into Lake Superior. [A] lot of sensitive environments, wetlands,” Dunn added, “Most of these are very, very high-class trout streams.” The Enbridge Pipeline, called Line 5, runs north of the area, through the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Reservation. An Enbridge spokesperson told WUWM that Line 5 has consistently operated safely since 1953, including within the reservation. Still, in response to the tribe's request, Enbridge is working on re-routing Line 5 outside of the reservation.Over time, storms have eroded and exposed sections of the existing line within the reservation. Enbridge is proposing a 42 mile route that would loop south, skirting the reservation. Hydrologist Jamie Dunn called the proposal untenable. “I couldn’t come up with a worse route for the surface water and the groundwater resources through this area. If there is a release, it is going to be a major impact on the surface water resources, [it] could be a major impact on the Copper Falls aquifer, which is the drinking water for everybody in the basin,” Dunn added, “The risks just outweigh the need for this pipeline. I just don’t see a scenario where it should go in.”

Indigenous Resistance Instrumental in Stopping High-Profile Fossil Fuel Projects, Says Report -The efforts of Indigenous peoples in North America have helped block or delay a long list of major fossil fuel projects over the past decade, successfully leading to the avoidance of a massive amount of greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new report.“The numbers don’t lie. Indigenous peoples have long led the fight to protect Mother Earth and the only way forward is to center Indigenous knowledge and keep fossil fuels in the ground,” Dallas Goldtooth, a Keep It In The Ground organizer for Indigenous Environmental Network (IEN), said in a statement. The report was coauthored by IEN and Oil Change International, a research and advocacy organization focused on transitioning away from fossil fuels.Indigenous resistance has been key in blocking at least eight major projects, including the Keystone XL pipeline, the C$20 billion Teck Frontier tar sands mine in Alberta, the Jordan Cove liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Oregon, and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, to name a few. Taken together, those delayed and canceled projects would have been responsible for nearly 800 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent, or about 12 percent of the total emissions of the U.S. and Canada in 2019.Another half-dozen projects are currently contested, including the Line 3 pipeline in Minnesota, the Coastal GasLink pipeline in British Columbia, and the Rio Grande LNG project in Texas, for example. These projects represent another 12 percent of total U.S. and Canadian emissions, which, if opponents have their way, would bring the total carbon pollution avoided due to Indigenous resistance to 1.6 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent. That’s roughly equal to the pollution from 400 new coal-fired power plants or 345 million passenger vehicles.As the report notes, this is likely an underestimate because it only includes 17 of the largest and most iconic fossil fuel projects in recent years.“Indigenous peoples continue to exert social and moral authority to protect their homelands from oil and gas development,” the report stated. “Coupling these expressions with the legal authority of Indigenous Rights, frontline communities, and Tribal Nations have made tangible progress stemming fossil fuel expansion.”

Hope for Line 5 opponents via Line 3’s latest development? - Opponents of the ongoing Line 3 pipeline project in northern Minnesota — an oil-moving cousin of the also-contested, also-Enbridge-owned Line 5 pipeline, which runs under the Straits of Mackinac — just got a heavyweight in their corner: the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination. The committee recently announced it is undertaking an investigation into possible violations of Anishinaabe citizens’ treaty rights resulting from Canada-based Enbridge Energy’s tar-sands pipeline reconstruction project in northern Minnesota. If the United Nations finds violations, it would mean a breach of international law — specifically, the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination — not by Canada or Enbridge, but by the United States. According to a letter written by committee chair Yanduan Li to the Chargé d’Affaires of the Permanent U.S. Mission to the United Nations, the committee has requested, by Oct. 15, information from the United States that would include, among many items, “details on the status of the treaties concluded between the Anishinaabe indigenous peoples and the Government of the United States of America and on measures adopted to guarantee the respect of the rights of the Anishinaabe under such treaties, in particular their usufructuary rights as upheld by the Supreme Court’s ruling [in the 1999 case, Minnesota v. Mille Lacs Band of Chippewa Indians, 526 U.S. 172].” So what’s that mean for Line 5? Nothing yet. But many Anishinaabe and non-Native America citizens here in Michigan — as well as Gov. Whitmer’s Nov. 2020 order to revoke the easement allowing Enbridge to transport through Line 5 — charge that Line 5 violates the rights accorded to Michigan’s First People in the 1836 Treaty of Washington, reaffirmed in 1855. The United Nations’ findings on Line 3 would be an indication of what’s to come — or not — for Line 5’s legal battles. We — and the world — are watching.

State asks judge to stop mediator from filing report in Enbridge case - The state of Michigan has asked a federal judge to bar a mediator from disclosing details of mediation sessions between state lawyers and Enbridge Energy about the state's attempt to shut down Line 5 in the Straits of Mackinac. Mediator Gerald Rosen, a former Detroit U.S. district judge, plans to file a report within the next few days on the status of mediation, which, as of last Thursday, had failed to yield an agreement, Attorney General Dana Nessel said in a Tuesday filing. But the terms of the mediation agreement establish that the process is "confidential" and prohibit the disclosure of information such as "communications and the conduct of parties in the course of mediation," the filing said. Instead, the terms of mediation allow the mediator to make a report "stating only who participated in the mediation session and whether settlement was reached." In a Tuesday statement, an Enbridge spokesman said the company intends to work with the state "to reconcile interests, resolve disputes and move forward." "We believe in the process and have participated in this mediation in good faith," said Enbridge spokesman Ryan Duffy. "We understand the stakes in this matter are important not only for Enbridge and the state, but for many others throughout the region who have strong interest in its outcome." The two parties have not scheduled any further mediation meetings. They've met four times since April and had hoped to conclude mediation by the end of the month. Rosen led the mediation team that pulled Detroit out of municipal bankruptcy in 18 months through what has become known as the "grand bargain." The mediation seeks an agreement that ends an impasse between the Canadian oil giant and Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmover the future of the Line 5 oil pipeline. In November, the state gave Line 5 owner Enbridge 180 days to arrange for a shutdown, a period that expired on May 12. Michigan filed a case in state court seeking to buoy its authority to order the shutdown. Enbridge refused to close by that date and instead filed a competing suit against the state in federal court, asking the judge to rule only federal regulators had any say over the pipeline's closure. We're offering a great deal on a

Treaty People Organize Walk Across Northern Minnesota to Oppose Line 3 — On Sunday, more than three dozen people left Backus, Minn. on a 160-mile walk to raise awareness about the controversial Line 3 tar sands oil pipeline that’s currently being constructed in the northern part of the state. Organizers plan to make the trek over the next two weeks to Wisconsin Point, a 229-acre freshwater sand bar that sits on Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin near the Minnesota border. “We’re walking because Governor Tim Walz made a poor decision to permit Line 3 to violate treaties,” Carrie Chesnik, an enrolled member of the Oneida Nation of Wisconsin, told Native News Online. “We’re walking for the next seven generations." Want more Native News? Get the free daily newsletter today. This isn’t the first organized walk to oppose construction of the Enbridge, Inc. Line 3 replacement project. Last month, dozens of people walked approximately 235 miles from Backus to the Minnesota State Capitol grounds in Saint Paul. They were joined on Aug. 26 by hundreds of other walkers to participate in a rally at the Capitol that included more than 1,000 people. Their collective voice was to demand that President Biden and Governor Walz honor treaties that both the federal and state governments have with tribes. “Treaty is the mechanism that is going to allow all of us to protect the water, the land, and the next seven generations,” Chesnik said. “There is so much destruction going on in our world, and our government can play a role in putting an end to it.” The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission’s (PUC) agreement with opponents of the pipeline was to allow people to monitor construction sites, an agreement that has come with over-policing and misinformation from the state of Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, Chesnik said. To date, there have been more than 800 arrests and citations by various law enforcement agencies near the construction sites and more than $2 million of reimbursements to law enforcement by an escrow account paid for by Enbridge.

DNR says Enbridge broke law, must pay over $3 million for construction mistake - The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has ordered Enbridge to pay $3.32 million for failing to follow environmental laws during construction of its controversial Line 3 oil pipeline. While working near Clearbrook, Minn., Enbridge dug too deeply into the ground and pierced an artesian aquifer, which the DNR described Thursday as an "unauthorized groundwater appropriation." The incident, which happened in January, has led to a 24 million gallon groundwater leak, endangering a nearby wetland."Enbridge's actions are a clear violation of state law, and also of the public trust," said Barb Naramore, DNR deputy commissioner."That is why we are using all of the tools in our authority to address the situation."The DNR has ordered Enbridge to put $2.75 million into escrow for restoration and damage to the delicate wetland, known as a calcareous fen. The DNR's enforcement orders require Enbridge to pay $300,000 to mitigate the lost groundwater and $250,000 for long-term monitoring of the wetlands.The state also fined Enbridge $20,000, the maximum allowed under state law. Enbridge does not have to pay the fine if it fixes the problem in the time allotted. Enbridge could get some of the $2.75 million in escrow back if remediation costs less, or it could end up paying more if the bill is higher.In a statement, Enbridge said it had "just received" the DNR's complaint and is reviewing it."Enbridge has been working with the DNR since June to provide the required site information and approval of a corrective action plan which is currently being implemented.We share a strong desire to protect Minnesota waters and the environment and are committed to restoration.We will continue to work closely with the agency on the resolution of this matter."Calgary, Alberta-based Enbridge's 340-mile Line 3 pipeline will carry a thick Canadian crude across northern Minnesota to the company's terminal in Superior, Wis. The pipeline, which has been roundly opposed by environmental groups and some Ojibwe tribes, is 90 % complete. Construction started in December. Enbridge pierced the aquifer on the pipeline route near its terminal in Clearbrook sometime the following month, Naramore said.

Enbridge Pipeline Crackdown Led by Ex-Amazon Security Boss -- THE HEAD OF security for the oil transport company Enbridge built his résumé managing Exxon Mobil’s response to community protests in Nigeria and helping oversee Amazon’s Global Security Operations Center, a division that has monitored environmental groups and union organizers. Now, at Enbridge, Troy Kirby oversees efforts to combat a protest movement aimed at stopping construction of the company’s Line 3 pipeline in Minnesota. Enbridge’s security operation has drawn criticism for its efforts to influence the police response to the Indigenous-led movement, whose members are known as water protectors. Enbridge’s close cooperation with police, including payments and intelligence sharing, has been deemed by academics and water protector critics as emblematic of corporate counterinsurgency — a suite of tactics, ranging from public relations campaigns to surveillance and support for armed force, designed to win over communities to controversial profit-making projects. “You have companies that have entire departments dedicated to making sure you stay in your place, that you don’t resist, that you don’t talk about it, and you most certainly don’t act on it,”“These are the people that specialize in the dark arts. Maybe it’s a bit more banal than we might imagine, but these are the spooks.” As this story was being reported, Kirby’s Amazon job description was deleted from his LinkedIn page. Kirbystarted at Enbridge in 2019 after a three-year stint as Amazon’s head of corporate security throughout the Americas, according to LinkedIn. Part of his role included overseeing the online giant’s Global Security Operations Center. Internal Amazon documents dated to the year Kirby left, obtained by Vice, provide clues. According to the report, security personnel with the center used Facebook and Instagram to monitor environmental groups as well as union organizers. In Poland, operatives working for the private security company Pinkerton were sent to an Amazon warehouse to investigate reports of employee misconduct, Vice reported. Pinkerton got its start in the late 19th century, using undercover operatives and agents provocateurs to bust unions. The firm is now a subsidiary of the private security giant Securitas — one of the companies providing security for Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline in Minnesota. Before Amazon, Kirby spent 16 years doing security work for Exxon Mobil. For at least four years, he worked for Exxon in Nigeria — where there is a history of energy company complicity in human rights abuses. During his time in Nigeria, Kirby was an adviser on “strategic security countermeasures,” which involved managing so-called crises, including pirate attacks and kidnapping, as well as “community protests,” according to a section of his LinkedIn page that has since been deleted. As in Minnesota, the work in Nigeria included collaborating closely with public agencies. Kirby’s LinkedIn page said he “Established a Nigerian based security network with private and public sector security leaders” and was involved in “Oversight of host government security forces.” The Exxon Mobil security operation was heavily militarized and focused in part on Exxon’s offshore oil operations. Kirby described designing a “Security Maritime Operations center including a fleet of 17 military-grade security vessels.”

Permit for oil refinery near national park to stay active after developer secures contract - North Dakota environmental officials have determined a company planning an oil refinery near Theodore Roosevelt National Park has made enough progress this summer to keep its construction permit active after it faced delays and received two extensions. Project developer Meridian Energy Group has entered into what it calls a “critical and central” contract with the engineering firm McDermott to design and construct major pieces of equipment for the Davis Refinery. The project is opposed by environmental groups in part because of its proximity to the national park in the Badlands. The Texas-based companies say the terms of the contract signed in June exceed 10% of the refinery’s total cost. The project is estimated to exceed $1 billion. Meridian would be on the hook for an amount above the 10% threshold if it ever sought to terminate the contract, according to letters the companies recently sent to the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality. Environmental Engineer David Stroh was among the state's air quality officials who met with Meridian last week to go over the contract to see whether it satisfied the conditions needed to keep the permit active. “They’ve done what they need to do,” he said. “As far as we’re concerned regarding air quality, they’ve commenced construction of a facility.”

North American rig count jumps by 20 - The Baker Hughes rig count for September 17 showed net gains across US and Canada pushed drilling activity higher. Using data from Enverus, Baker Hughes reported the North American rig count improved by 20 from the prior week to reach 666. An increase in upstream activity related to oil led the gains across North America, with a net increase of 18 from the previous week. The US rig count improved by nine from the previous week, to 512, with oil rigs up by 10 to 411 and the natural gas rig count down by one to 100. Most of the US increase came from southern US states, where the Permian basin posted five more rigs working in oil than the previous week. Eagle Ford saw an increase of three rigs in oil, but lost a rig in natural gas. The Appalachia basin, which includes the Marcellus and Utica shales, posted small gains in work in natural gas, though that was offset by declines elsewhere in the primary shale basins in the Lower 48 US states. Nearly 80% of the US upstream activity is focused on oil. This is the second week in a row for gains in the US rig count, despite lingering pressure from storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico. The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported, as of September 16, nearly 40% of the natural gas production and 28% of total crude oil production remained offline nearly three weeks after Hurricane Ida made landfall as a category 4 storm. The US offshore rig count was unchanged from last week. Canada, for its part, saw gains across the board, with the oil rig count increasing by eight and the gas rig count improving by three. The entire increase of 11 came from Alberta, and while Baker Hughes does not break down oil and gas data to the provincial level for Canada, it can be assumed from the data that oil and gas rig increases for Canada reflect activity in Alberta.

Venezuela Heavy Oil Project Reserves Will be Left Stranded - Venezuela’s heavy oil project reserves will be left stranded as international players divest their interest. That’s what GlobalData said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Friday, which highlighted that TotalEnergies and Equinor had recently divested their respective interests in Petrocedeno to the state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela S.A (PDVSA) company. According to GlobalData, this means that due to high risks and the unstable deteriorating economy in the country, international players no longer see an upside in Venezuelan projects. GlobalData noted that with less investments supplied from the private sector, Venezuela will not be able to sustain its oil and gas industry for long, as its own cash resources are “extremely limited”. “Petrocedeno is a critical project in Venezuela’s portfolio and the largest upgrader in the country with a capacity to process over 200,000 barrels of heavy crude oil per day,” Svetlana Doh, an upstream oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, said in a company statement. “In the past few years, Venezuela faced severe fuel shortages, and this year, in a desperate attempt to solve this problem, the Petrocedeno upgrader is planned to be re-designed to produce naphta as a feedstock for refineries. This essentially means that refineries in the country are in such a desperate need for renovation or even simple upkeep, that now upgraders have to perform a refining step for them,” Doh added in the statement. “The conversion of the upgraders could be very challenging, as it would require new equipment, while cash-strapped PDVSA can barely find the funds to conduct an elementary maintenance of its refineries. The continuous drop of crude oil production in Venezuela, which is a main pillar of the country’s economy, combined with sanctions imposed by the U.S. Government, the Covid-19 pandemic, corruption in the government and lack of investment led the country to collapse,” Doh went on to say. Annual oil production in Venezuela declined from an estimated 2.03 million barrels per day in 2017 to 480,000 barrels per day last year, Doh outlined. On July 29, TotalEnergies announced that, through its affiliate Total Venezuela, it had decided to transfer its non-operated minority participation of 30.32 percent in Petrocedeno S.A. to Corporation Venezonala de Petróleos (CVP), an affiliate of PDVSA. On the same day, Equinor announced that it and PDVSA had completed a transaction that saw it transfer its 9.67 percent non-operated interest in the Petrocedeno project onshore Venezuela to CVP. In a company statement at the time, TotalEnergies’ then president of exploration and production, Arnaud Breuillac, said, “TotalEnergies’ strategy, approved by its shareholders in May 2021, aims at focusing new oil investments on low carbon intensity projects, which does not correspond to extra-heavy oil development projects in the Orinoco Belt”. Equinor stated that the transaction supports its corporate strategy to focus its portfolio on international core areas and prioritized geographies where Equinor can leverage its competitive advantages.

Nord Stream 2 In Limbo As Germany Prepares To Decide On Key License - Germany’s federal networks regulator BNA said on Monday it would decide no later than January 8, 2022 whether it will certify Nord Stream 2 and issue an operating license for the natural gas pipeline.“The Federal Network Agency of Germany announced today that Nord Stream 2 AG has submitted all the documents required for verification by the agency. Thus, the Federal Network Agency has four months to prepare a draft decision and submit it to the European Commission,” the regulator, Bundesnetzagentur, told Russian news outlet Sputnik on Monday.The documents were received on September 8, so the four-month deadline expires on January 8.Last Friday, Gazprom said it had completed the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, although gas flows on the controversial Russia-led pipeline cannot begin until Germany grants an operating license to the project.Earlier last week, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany was set to be completed within days and come on stream.But in order to begin shipping gas to Germany, Nord Stream 2 will need the go-ahead from the German regulator via an operational license.Last month, a German court ruled that Nord Stream 2 will have to obey European Union regulations that separate owners of the pipelines from suppliers of gas, dealing a blow to Gazprom, who sought to have EU rules waived for the controversial pipeline.Nord Stream 2 AG, the company behind the pipeline, said on Friday that after the mechanical completion of the construction, “the required pre-commissioning activities will be carried out with the goal to put the pipeline into operation before the end of this year.” Gazprom hopes to start gas flows via the first leg of the pipeline as early as October 1, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing sources with direct knowledge of the Russian gas giant’s plans.

Europe's gas shortage could make the whole world pay more to get warm this winter --Natural gas prices have surged more than 35% in the past month, as worries grow there is not enough gas stored up for the winter should temperatures be especially cold in the northern hemisphere. The usually quiet market for the commodity has become hot in the last couple of weeks, as investors focus on the growth in demand around the world and supplies remain below normal. The biggest problem area is Europe, where supply is at a record low for this time of year. Even in the U.S., the amount of gas in storage is 7.6% below the five-year average, according to recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Natural gas is an important heating fuel and is responsible for about 35% of power generation in the U.S., the federal agency found. "People are starting to throw the 'crisis' word around" when it comes to Europe, . He said natural gas in storage in Europe is 16% below the five-year average, and the level in storage is a record low for September. "Europe is squarely behind the eight ball going into the winter season. It's going to put the focus on this commodity that's been overlooked for the last several years," The tipping point could come in several months when it becomes clear what type of winter is ahead for Europe, and also the U.S. Some analysts say in an extreme scenario, U.S. prices could double if there is an extended cold spell, particularly in Europe where shortages could get severe. "If the winter is mildly cold, it's going to be problematic for sure," said Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives strategy at Bank of America. Natural gas futures for October jumped nearly 5.3% Monday, to about $5.20 per one million British thermal units, or mmBtus. Natural gas is up 106% year-to-date and is the highest in more than seven years. But the equivalent gas in Europe and Asian markets is upwards of $20 per mmBtus. "The U.S. is supposed to be an island, but in the last three or four years, there's an increasing link between the U.S. and global market," Blanch said. "We've gone from 50% correlation to 95% correlation. The U.S. market is being dragged around by this." The U.S. has been exporting natural gas, in the form of liquified natural gas shipments. The shipments have grown to about 10% of U.S. production, analysts said. South Korea is the largest customer, followed by China and Japan, according to U.S. government data. But buyers also include Brazil India, Poland, Spain, France and Portugal. "If it's a cold winter, gas will not just be tight. It will be very tight," said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. If that's the case, prices could go sharply higher. "It will either be physical shortages, or it will be reflected in price." Europe's winter will depend on a weather pattern that sets up over Greenland. "The early indications do not indicate a big cold winter over there," Lovern said. The market is anxious about a repeat of last year, when a cold winter in Europe resulted in a larger-than-normal drawdown of gas.Supplies were not built back up enough in Europe, and analysts said lately Russia had cut back on some exports into Europe. But the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, bringing natural gas from Russia to Europe, could resolve some of the supply problems for the continent in the next couple of months.Russia's Gazprom last week announced completion of the pipeline, which had once been opposed by the U.S. The pipeline would allow Russia to double gas exports to Europe. Germany's energy regulator Monday said it has four months to complete certification of Nord Stream 2. . Amos Hochstein, the U.S. State Department's senior advisor for energy security, said U.S. deliveries of liquified natural gas, known in the industry as LNG, can be increased and Russia is coming off the period of low supply."

Natural-Gas Market Conditions Look Unnatural – WSJ - Natural gas could really use an OPEC-style, coordinated production ramp-up right now. U.S. Henry Hub natural-gas prices, at around $5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), have more than doubled from a year earlier. When the benchmark broke the $4 mark in early August it was a rare milestone—especially so far ahead of the winter heating season. The sticker shock is even greater elsewhere in the world: East Asian benchmark futures are four times where they were a year ago, while European natural-gas spot prices are five times as high. Both benchmarks have exceeded $18 per MMBtu.Europe’s natural-gas prices typically track lower than those seen in Asia, but they have had to rise to attract flexible liquefied natural-gas cargoes. “On any day, Asia and Europe are neck-and-neck in terms of who offers the best economics,” said Anatol Feygin, chief commercial officer at U.S. LNG exporter Cheniere Energy.The prices are more alarming if one considers the fact that the once-glutted U.S. is itself behind on stocking up for winter. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that natural gas in underground storage last week was 7.4% below the five-year average and only slightly above what it was in 2018, when natural gas inventories were at a record low heading into the winter. How did we get here? U.S. consumption isn’t really the driving force. Overall domestic natural-gas consumption through June was in line with 2020 levels, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The real culprit is international demand. Normally, excess natural gas during the summer that isn’t liquefied and exported to foreign markets would go into underground storage, notes Stan Brownell, vice president of business development covering natural gas at Argus Media. That domestic stockpiling hasn’t been happening as much this year as the U.S. flexes its expanded liquefaction capacity. In the first half of the year, the U.S. has exported roughly 10% of its natural gas, or 41% more than a year earlier, according to EIA data.Despite the healthy pace of LNG imports this year, Asia and Europe likely need to stock up more to prepare for winter. Non-U.S. LNG exporters haven’t been pitching in as much supply because of various maintenance-related snags. Europe, in particular, is in a precarious position heading into winter as Russia, its most important natural-gas provider, has been slowing its deliveries.Samer Mosis, analyst at S&P Global Platts, noted that Asia still needs to build more supply than usual over September and October to reach comfortable levels heading into winter. Meanwhile, natural gas in storage in Europe is 16% below the five-year average and at a record low for September, according to the data provider. The hunger of international markets later this year will depend on some unwieldy variables, including how severe winter will be in other parts of the world, how quickly Russia starts up its controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline and whether it revives its flow of natural gas to Europe. A severe winter in the U.S. could mean that domestic markets may have to compete with hungry Asian and European buyers. If European and Asian natural-gas prices stay at their current levels, both Mr. Brownell and Luke Jackson, analyst at S&P Global Platts, figure that Henry Hub prices would have to jump to $10 or more to provide an incentive to fulfill domestic natural-gas demand. Prices haven’t been that high since 2008, when the U.S. was producing about 40% less natural gas.

European Gas Prices Continue Parabolic Rise As EU Debates Nord Stream 2 Certification - European gas prices continue their unprecedented surge Wednesday as a supply crunch continues to worsen ahead of winter. "The market is super tight, so not much needed to move the needle and blow up the market," Oystein Kalleklev, chief executive officer of shipowner Flex LNG told Bloomberg. Kalleklev said the latest rally in prices had been driven by concerns Germany permitting Russia's Nord Stream 2 could take months. He added LNG cargo disruption from the US Gulf Coast due to the latest tropical activity is another issue. Prices for the Dutch front-month contract jumped as much as 21% on the session to 79 euros per megawatt-hour but has since faded the highs. UK power contracts soared as much as 18% to 194.94 pounds per megawatt-hour German power prices increased by as much as 8.3% to 108 euros per megawatt-hour but has since faded the highs. The timing of Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be critical for European gas markets. US sanctions have caused multiple delays. However, Russia's state-controlled energy giant Gazprom announced that it had completed construction on the Nord Stream 2 Russia-to-Germany stretch last Friday. Gazprom said gas deliveries for Europe are ready though it could take four months under EU regulators to approve the new pipeline for use. And that may be too long as the winter season approaches and supply crunches could send gas and power prices even higher. Former Austrian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Karin Kneissl, told RT News that prices surges in gas and power markets could persuade regulators to approve the Nord Stream 2 much quicker than previously thought, primarily due to mounting political pressure of the working poor who have seen their power bills skyrocket in the last month. "The [gas] supply contracts are there. And we will see to what extent the German regulator will speed up the certification process for Nord Stream 2, which, construction-wise, is done. Some people say that it could take months. But maybe the current situation will speed things up," Kneissl said As the chart below shows, the amount of gas entering Germany at the Mallnow compressor station has plunged by almost half, signaling Russia is flowing less through the Yamal-Europe line in what may be a Kremlin shot across the European bow, and a reminder who literally keeps the lights open during the winter.

How Much Oil Is Russia Really Pumping? -Russia has not raised its oil production as much as its increased quota under the OPEC+ deal has allowed in recent months. Estimates show that the leader of the non-OPEC group in the OPEC+ pact has not taken full advantage of the coalition’s past two agreements about raising the production ceilings for members. The quotas are proportionate to baselines, which means that the biggest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, get the largest increases in their respective oil output when OPEC+ eases cuts. While OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia is strictly sticking to its quota, Russia is estimated to have been pumping below quota since April—the month in which OPEC+ decided togradually increase collective oil production by 350,000 bpd in each of May and June and by more than 400,000 bpd in July. Then in July, the OPEC+ group decided it would start returning 400,000 bpd to the market every month beginning in August until it unwinds all the 5.8 million bpd cuts.Russia, which gets to pump now 105,000 bpd more every single month, looks to be lagging behind other OPEC+ members in producing at quota, Bloomberg’s oil strategist Julian Lee writes in an opinion piece.All in all, analysts are speculating and trying to calculate Russia’s crude oil production based on the opaque data of its energy ministry. The Russian energy ministry reports each month a total figure for oil production for the previous month, without breaking it down between crude oil production and condensate—a superlight oil—production. After years of debates within the OPEC+ group, Russia has won an exemption not to consider its condensate output as part of the production cut agreement. The lack of a straightforward official production number for crude oil makes assessments about Russian crude production and its compliance with the OPEC+ deal difficult. It’s a guestimate every month how much crude Russia pumps, and it is still a mystery whether it really struggles with ramping up crude production or its condensate output has fallen this summer. For example, in July, Russia saw its oil production rise for the first time in three months as OPEC+ continued to ease the output cuts and planned maintenance at some Russian oilfields ended. Russia’s crude oil and condensate production combined stood at around 10.46 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, up by 0.3 percent from June, according to Bloomberg estimates based on preliminary data from Russia’s Energy Ministry.Russian oil production is now estimated to have slightly declined in August, from 10.46 million bpd in July to 10.43 million bpd last month, according to Reuters estimates based on Russian energy ministry data in tons reported in early September.But this more than 10.4 million bpd includes what is estimated to be 800,000 bpd-900,000 bpd in condensate production in Russia each month.

Environmental organizations threaten lawsuit after oil spill - Three environmental organizations threatened to file a lawsuit against the Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline Company after about 100 cubic meters of oil leaked from the pipeline near Mash'en near Ashkelon in August, the organizations announced on Monday in a letter to Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg and the Nature and Parks Authority. The leak led to the need to clear 5,000 tons of contaminated soil and concerns that the fuel contaminated groundwater. The organizations, including the Society for the Protection of Nature in Israel, the Israel Union for Environmental Defense and Zalul, warned that they would file a lawsuit if no concrete steps are taken to correct the issues in the pipeline and prevent the recurrence of environmental damage. The organizations demanded that the Eilat Ashkelon pipeline deal with Med-Red, responsible for transporting oil in the Gulf of Eilat be canceled and that substantial steps be taken to halt the flow of oil in the Eilat Ashkelon pipeline. The incident occurred shortly after the Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline Company rejected claims that its fuel pipeline was deteriorating, according to the letter. "The latest leak incident, then, is not surprising, but is a disaster that was completely expected to occur," said the organizations. The Green Police of the Environmental Protection Ministry has launched a criminal investigation into the company. At the time of the incident, Zandberg visited the scene and said: "This is a very serious incident, which once again illustrates how dangerous and harmful the transportation of fossil fuel in the heart of the State of Israel can be. "This incident highlights that mishaps happen, all the time, and it is strictly forbidden to allow malfunctions to occur in close proximity to sensitive areas, on land or at sea, such as near coral reefs of global importance. We will examine the circumstances of the incident, and act to enforce proceedings with the company as required," said Zandberg

Turkey cleans up fallout from Syria oil leak killing crabs -The Mediterranean shores of Turkey are still under threat from an oil leak hailing from Syria week after the spill was identified. The leak stemmed from the Baniyas power plant in the eponymous regime-controlled area of Syria south of Turkey. The size of the leak ranges from 2 to 4 tons of fuel, regime officials had said earlier. Initial satellite imagery showed an oil sheen 36 kilometers (22 miles) long, but newer imagery shows that the spill is larger than anticipated and reaches deeper into the Mediterranean. Over the past two days, workers strove to clean up the sea and beaches spanning a 13 kilometer-long coastal strip in the Akdeniz and Tarsus districts of the southern province of Mersin. Crews concentrated their efforts on an area hosting the confluence of the Seyhan and Berdan rivers. Solid waste covered with oil that had washed ashore was collected while corpses of marine creatures such as bluefin crabs were also found on the beach. Hüseyin Özgür Yalçın, head of the Directorate of Environment and Urban Planning in Mersin, which leads cleaning efforts along with local municipalities, said waste originating from the slick started emerging off the coast recently and they acted swiftly to clean it up. Yalçın told Anadolu Agency (AA) on Monday that the pollution was evident in three different locations and that the public should not be worried. “We took all measures. Pollution stemming from leaks has been collected and disposed of in facilities designed for waste disposal without harming the environment." Turkey also sent ships equipped with sea barriers, oil skimmers, oil absorbent pads and containment tanks to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which also faced risk from the oil slick. Earlier this month, the TRNC’s Minister of Public Works and Transportation Resmiye Canaltay said that shifting winds had temporarily pushed the fuel back toward Syria. But the minister added that he still expected at least some of the oil to reach Turkish Cyprus. "There will be major damage to our habitat," Canaltay told local television. TRNC environmental officials said up to 20,000 tons of fuel oil had spilled from the power plant on Syria's Mediterranean coast. They added that marine life was in particular danger because some of the oil had started to solidify and sink to the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea.

China's Oil Sale Is A Clear Message To OPEC+ -China made headlines last week with the news that it was going to release some crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserve and sell it in a move that Bloomberg called "an unprecedented intervention." Indeed, this was the first time China announced the sale of oil from its strategic reserve. The size of this reserve is unknown as the government never releases that data, but analysts have been using satellite imaging to estimate just how much oil China has in storage.The reason for the move was, of course, oil prices. At over $70 per barrel, crude appears to have become too expensive for Beijing after producer price inflation hit a 13-year high last month, per a Reuters report. The same report cited China's National Food and Strategic Reserves administration as saying the oil sales would "better stabilise domestic market supply and demand, and effectively guarantee the country's energy security."The world's biggest economic hothouse, which has so far this year grown at a rate of 8.44 percent, has been struggling with high raw material prices for months, just like the rest of the world. Unlike the rest of the world, it has levers to pull when it decides it has had enough.What is interesting is that this may not be the first time China has sold oil from its strategic reserve. Yet it is the first time it has made it public, Energy Aspects' Amrita Sen told the Financial Times."This is not new, but the announcement is new and I think it's an attempt on their part to temper domestic prices," Sen explained. The other interesting thing, as noted in the Financial Times report on the news, is that the first-of-its-kind announcement came soon after the latest meeting of OPEC+ where the cartel decided to keep adding production at rates agreed earlier despite calls - including from U.S. President Joe Biden - to add more supply to market to temper the price rise. As Reuters columnist Clyde Russell put it, the oil sale was all about the message, not so much the oil itself.

Oil Glut That Covid Built All But Gone -- Global crude inventories that ballooned during the pandemic have shrunk to the lowest level in 20 months as an economic rebound in top consumers China and the U.S. drive a robust recovery in fuel demand. About 2.97 billion barrels of crude oil were stored onshore globally as of Sept. 5, the least since January 2020 before Covid-19 eviscerated demand, according to data analytics firm Kayrros. U.S. stockpiles are at a two-year low, those in China are the smallest since September 2020, while inventories at the African hub of Saldanha Bay are at the lowest since April last year. Oil consumption in the world’s top guzzlers has surpassed pre-pandemic levels and underpinned a red-hot rally in crude prices, although it’s faltered over the last couple of months due to the delta variant of the virus. China’s depleted inventories also have some in the market predicting that the biggest crude importer will start replenishing its giant reserves again soon. “There was really a surge in crude oil demand, especially in the first half of this year,” said Victor Shum, vice president of energy consulting at IHS Markit. However, he predicted that the draw-down of inventories will slow as OPEC+ pumps more, and that demand surges are “probably turning a corner.” Global inventories swelled in July last year to the highest level since Kayrros started compiling its data in May 2016. Since then, there’s been a steady drop across most regions. Onshore storage in Europe and the Middle East are about 28-to-35 million barrels lower than a year earlier, according to Kayrros. U.S. stockpiles may decline even further if production halted by Hurricane Ida resumes slower than the return of refining capacity, said Sri Paravaikkarasu, head of Asia oil at FGE. The Category 4 storm swept through the Gulf of Mexico and crashed into the coast two weeks ago. Higher crude prices have also encouraged refiners to tap more stored oil, while a bullish backwardation structure has made it uneconomical for traders to hoard crude. China recently took the unprecedented step of offering crude reserves to domestic processors to try and cool prices. The Asian giant’s crude stockpiles were at about 966 million barrels on Sept. 5, the lowest since September 2020, although still around 100 million barrels above pre-pandemic levels, according to Kayrros. Another satellite tracker, Ursa Space Systems, which uses a slightly different methodology, estimates inventories are near the smallest since June 2020. Chinese inventories were mostly depleted by domestic and international traders who had supplied local independent refiners, according to Sengyick Tee, an analyst at Beijing-based SIA Energy. The private refiners, known as teapots, account for about a quarter of China’s oil-processing capacity.

Is Oil Really Doomed? -Two recent reports warned that oil and gas production needs to be significantly reduced if the world is to meet the Paris Agreement goals and curb the effects of climate change. They add to a growing body of research calling on Big Oil to stop pumping. But Big Oil seems to be doing the opposite. At the beginning of September, Italy's Eni—one of the most ambitious oil majors when it comes to emission reduction commitments—announced a new oil discovery offshore Ivory Coast. The company estimated the potential reserves of the new discovery at between .5 billion and 2 billion barrels of crude and 1.8-2.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Last week, Exxon reported yet another discovery off the coast of Guyana - its twentieth in the Stabroek block. It adds to reserves already estimated at 9 billion barrels of crude, which the Guyanese government plans to exploit to the best of its abilities. Meanwhile, a report from University College London has warned that the oil industry must start cutting production at a rate of 3 percent annually by 2050 to meet the 1.5-degree Celsius target of the Paris Agreement, which is the more ambitious scenario of the agreement. This, according to the researchers led by environmental and energy economist Dan Welsby, means some 60 percent of global oil reserves, along with 90 percent of coal reserves, need to remain in the ground. Another report, by Carbon Tracker, calls on oil companies to plan for a future where demand will be much lower. So much lower, in fact, that they needed to plan for 50-percent lower output over the next decade or so if they really want to take part in efforts to curb the rise of global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. "Oil and gas companies are betting against the success of global efforts to tackle climate change," one of the authors of the report, Carbon Tracker's head of oil, gas, and mining, Mike Coffin, said. He couldn't have put it better, and while it is not news that the interests of the oil and gas industry are at odds with a lot of climate change efforts, there is more than one reason for this.Consider another recent news report. Canada's Enbridge paid $3 billion for Moda Midstream Operating, a company that owns the biggest oil export terminal in the United States, the Ingleside Energy Center in Corpus Christi, Texas, to be renamed Enbridge Ingleside Energy Center (EIEC).The deal comes at a time when the United States is making a mad rush for climate change legislation to catch up with Europe, and this rush is largely unfavorable for the oil industry. And yet, Enbridge is betting big on the continued demand for U.S. oil globally. The reason: oil demand outlook. Oil demand, which stunned the energy world last year, sending Big Oil reeling and many small companies sinking, is back with a vengeance, exceeding all expectations, some of which predicted that the shift to renewables would kill oil demand growth pretty soon. It now appears these predictions were premature.

Oil Prices Climb On Shocking OPEC Report --The surge of the Delta variant around the globe is set to partially delay oil demand recovery into the next year when robust economic growth and stronger recovery in fuel consumption will see global oil demand averaging 100.8 million barrels per day (bpd) and exceeding pre-COVID levels, OPEC said on Monday, raising its 2022 demand forecast by a shocking 900,000 bpd.Next year, oil demand worldwide is now expected to jump by around 4.2 million bpd compared to 2021, an upward revision of 900,000 bpd compared to last month’s assessment, OPEC said in its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) today.This year, total global oil demand remains unchanged at 96.7 million bpd for the whole of 2021. But the fourth-quarter demand was revised slightly down, by 110,000 bpd from the August estimate of 99.82 million bpd to 99.7 million bpd now, OPEC said in its September report.“Oil demand in 3Q21 has proved to be resilient, supported by rising mobility and traveling activities, particularly in the OECD. At the same time, the increased risk of COVID-19 cases primarily fuelled by the Delta variant is clouding oil demand prospects going into the final quarter of the year, resulting in downward adjustments to 4Q21 estimates,” the cartel noted. The lower estimates for the last quarter of 2021 mean that some of the demand recovery will be pushed into the first half of 2022, according to OPEC.“As vaccination rates rise, the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be better managed and economic activities and mobility will firmly return to pre-COVID-19 levels. The revisions are based in both the OECD and non-OECD regions, with steady economic developments expected to support the partially delayed recovery in oil demand in various sectors,” OPEC said in its 2022 forecast.Demand for 2022 was revised up by 300,000 bpd for OECD and by 600,000 bpd for non-OECD countries compared to last month’s outlook. Last week, reports emerged that OPEC could cut its 2022 demand forecast, but the organization now says it believes that the Q4 2021 weakness in demand would only delay the recovery to next year.

Oil Finishes on a Six Week High - Oil closed above $70 a barrel for the first time in nearly six weeks as another heavy storm heads to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, while producers are still reeling from Hurricane Ida. Futures in New York settled 1.1% higher. Tropical Storm Nicholas, which may reach hurricane strength before it makes landfall, is expected to bring flooding rains to Houston, as well as parts of Louisiana still recovering from Hurricane Ida two weeks ago. About 44% of oil supply is down in the Gulf and the volume of shut-in output may start growing once again. Shell has already began removing some staff from one of its platforms to prepare for the storm. Refineries and terminals Texas could also see some curtailments, given the storm’s coastal track. “The threat of more disruptions from extreme weather is also a cause of concern for producers and a reason for traders to add price premiums, as the new Tropical Storm Nicholas in the Gulf of Mexico could turn into a hurricane and hit Texas in coming days,” said Nishant Bhushan, an oil markets analyst for industry consultant Rystad Energy. With crude prices steadily climbing higher this month, major Wall Street banks are assessing the crude market. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said oil will likely lead a rally in commodities next quarter amid strong demand and “growing scarcity” of supply. Bank of America Corp. said a colder-than-expected winter could push prices up toward $100 at some point early next year. Meanwhile, OPEC on Monday forecast stronger demand for its crude this year and next amid rising global fuel use and output disruptions from the North Sea to the U.S. The group’s monthly report indicated that the world will continue to face a supply deficit in coming months even as OPEC nations revive idle production. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 73 cents to settle at $70.45 a barrel in New York time. Brent advanced 59 cents to $73.51 a barrel, after earlier jumping 1.4%. “The broader global oil-demand picture is showing signs of normalizing,” said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates. “As OPEC+ is firmly in control of supply, and maintaining its cautious stance, the crude market should continue to tighten further in the year-end period.” Traders are also awaiting additional import quotas for China’s private refiners, which could spur renewed purchases in the physical market in the coming weeks. One company was granted permission to import a set volume of crude last week, and quotas for other refiners are expected imminently.

Oil Steady In Wake of Hurricane Nicholas -Oil ended the session little changed as investors tracked U.S. dollar movements and concerns faded around Hurricane Nicholas’ threat to crude supply in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Futures in New York erased nearly all gains, yet still managed to close at the highest since early August on Tuesday. The dollar advanced, reducing the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. While Nicholas did not impact offshore output in the U.S. Gulf, storm-related power outages briefly shut the country’s largest gasoline pipeline that sends fuel from Houston to the Northeast. U.S. crude futures have traded near $70 a barrel for most of this month. The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday that the world will have to wait until October for additional oil supplies as output losses from Hurricane Ida wipe out increases from OPEC+. Global oil demand has been falling since July as rising Covid-19 cases prompt mobility restrictions in Asia, according to the IEA. Nicholas, which struck shore as a Category 1 hurricane and has since lost strength, had largely moved east from the Houston area by mid-morning local time, allowing refiners, chemical makers and other industrial concerns to assess the physical impacts of rain and wind. The gasoline crack spread, a rough measure of the profit from refining crude into fuel, rallied about 3% on the temporary outage of Colonial’s Pipeline Co.’s gasoline pipeline. The company’s diesel pipeline is still shut. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery added 1 cent to settle at $70.46 a barrel in New York. Brent for November settlement rose 9 cents to end the session at $73.60 a barrel. Meanwhile, China said it will make the first sale of oil from its strategic reserves on Sept. 24 after announcing the historic move last week. The initial auction will be for about 7.38 million barrels of crude, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said in a statement Tuesday.

Oil Futures Rally as Tropical Storm Nicholas Heads to Texas Refineries -- Extending last week's gains, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced in early trading Monday as market participants monitor an intensifying storm system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that is projected to make its landfall tonight near Texas' refining and oil export hub of Corpus Christi, while refiners and oil producers in the region continue to struggle with an uneven infrastructure recovery following a category four Hurricane Ida in late August.Near 7:30 a.m. ET, NYMEX October West Texas Intermediate contract topped $70 per barrel (bbl), up $0.68 on the session so far, and Brent crude for November delivery added $0.55 to trade near $73.47 bbl. NYMEX October RBOB futures rallied 1.45 cents to $2.1691 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures advanced 1.3 cents to $2.1590 gallon.Monday's move higher is underpinned by carryover effects of supply disruption in the Gulf of Mexico for nearly two weeks caused by Hurricane Ida, which made landfall Aug. 29, with over 48% or 883,755 barrels per day (bpd) of offshore oil production in the region still offline, according to the government data from the Bureau of Environmental Enforcement and Protection. Tropical Storm Nicholas, which strengthened this weekend over the western Gulf of Mexico, is currently forecast to bring heavy rains with a peak wind speed of 50 to 60 knots before it makes landfall in central Texas between Corpus Christi and Galveston near Matagorda Bay, according to DTN Weather. DTN Weather gives a 50% probability of intensifying into a category one hurricane, with a category one storm having wind speeds between 74 to 95 miles per hour. Corpus Christi is a key U.S. crude export port and home to several oil refineries, including Citgo's 157,500 bpd refinery, Valero's 200,000 bpd refinery and Flint Hills Resources 260,000 bpd refinery. At the end of last week, Gulf oil producers and logistics companies made gradual progress in bringing back shut-in capacity as power supplies restarted for a number of critical onshore and deep-water infrastructure. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port said on Thursday that it resumed delivering crude oil to regional refineries. Limiting the upside for the oil complex is a strengthening U.S. dollar index that rallied to a two and a half week high 92.880 against a basket of foreign currencies in overnight index trade. Greenback's move higher is spurred by several comments from top Federal Reserve officials who voiced their support for an earlier withdrawal of fiscal support for the recovering economy. President of Philadelphia Federal Reserve Patrick Harker said in an interview to Nikkei Asia on Sunday that the Fed's asset purchasing programs can only affect the demand side of the labor market and not the slack on the supply side.

Oil Futures Up as Nicholas Slams Texas, IEA Ups Fourth Quarter Demand -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange extended gains into morning trade Tuesday after Nicholas made landfall about 80 miles south of Houston near Sargent Beach as a category one hurricane, likely having disrupted export activity at Corpus Christi, while producers in the offshore U.S. Gulf Coast continue to recover from the disruption brought about by a category four Hurricane Ida 15 days ago.Unlike Ida however, Nicholas is turning out to be more of a rain event, although as of 5 a.m. ET more than 400,000 customers in the Houston area were left without power that could affect refinery operations in the region. Analysts estimate that the biggest impact from Nicholas will be on crude oil exports, with as much as 12 million per barrel (bbl) of oil potentially not exported during the week.Shell said on Monday that it was evacuating nonessential personal from its offshore Perdido platform as a precautionary measure ahead of Nicholas. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement data shows 43.6% or 793,522 bpd of offshore oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remains offline.In its monthly oil market report released this morning, International Energy Agency noted the supply disruption from Hurricane Ida is now nearing 30 million bbl, as offshore installations and refineries in the region have been slow to restart due to severity of the storm."Already in August, production outages led to further sharp declines in inventories. Preliminary data show OECD oil stocks falling by more than 30 million barrels (mb) last month, extending steep losses over June and July. OECD total industry stocks drew by 34.4 mb in July and stood at 2 850 mb, 185.7 mb lower than the 2016-2020 average and 120.3 mb below the pre-Covid, five-year average" said IEA.On the demand side, Paris-based agency downgraded its third-quarter projections by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), mainly driven by mobility restrictions in China and southeast Asia. IEA, however, expects global oil demand to rebound by a sharp 1.6 million bpd in October and continue to grow until end-year as COVID-19 show signs of abating. Global oil demand is now expected to rise by 5.2 million bpd this year and by 3.2 million bpd in 2022. The new projections follow a more upbeat market outlook from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that held global oil demand projections for this year steady, forecasting annualized growth of 6 million bpd despite the rapid spread of the Delta variant across major economies. "Oil demand in third quarter 2021 has proved to be resilient, supported by rising mobility and travelling activities, particularly in countries that part of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development," said OPEC in their Monthly Oil market Report released Monday. In financial markets, U.S. dollar index reversed off three-week high 92.650 in overnight trade and equity futures edged slightly higher as investors turned cautious ahead of the key reading on U.S. inflation in August. Last month, Consumer Price Index increase 0.5% for a 5.4% annual jump -- making the reading the highest in 13 years. August CPI index is expected to cool off slightly to a 0.4% monthly increase and 5.3% annual gain. A hotter-than-expected August reading could prompt the Federal Reserve to announce the tapering of its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases as early as next week when the Federal Open Market Committee holds its policy meeting on Sept. 21-22.

WTI Extends Gains After Across The Board Inventory Draws - Oil prices ended largely unchanged on Tuesday as tropical storm Nicholas brought heavy rain and power outages in Texas but caused less damage to U.S. energy infrastructure than Hurricane Ida caused earlier this month. "The Gulf situation is not resolving itself quickly," More than 39% of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico's production of crude and natural gas remained shut on Tuesday, the regulator Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said. Also of note was the fact that the, now infamous, Colonial pipeline, the largest U.S. fuel pipeline, partially resumed operations after shutting due to a power outage early in the day.Details on China's plans to sell crude from strategic reserves pressured prices, but all algos attention will be focused in the short-term on API's inventory data... API

• Crude -5.437mm (-3.5mm exp)
• Cushing -1.345mm
• Gasoline -2.761mm
• Distillates -2.888m

Analysts expected crude inventories to fall for the 6th straight week and were correct with a larger than expected crude draw accompanied by draws at Cushing and across gasoline and distillates...

Oil prices jump over $2 after drawdown in U.S. stocks -Oil prices rose over $2 on Wednesday after industry data showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and on expectations demand will rise as vaccination roll-outs widen. Brent oil rose advanced $1.86, or 2.5%, to settle at $75.46 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $2.15, or 3.05%, to settle at $72.61 per barrel. Brent hit its highest levels since late July and WTI since early August. U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate stocks fell last week, two market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures, after Hurricane Ida shut numerous refineries and offshore drilling production. Crude stocks fell by 5.4 million barrels for the week ending Sept. 10, compared to a forecast 3.5 million barrel drop. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's oil inventory report is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday. "The impact of Hurricane Ida was a lot greater than many anticipated and production in the Gulf of Mexico region might struggle to return until Tropical Storm Nicholas is done punishing the region with torrential rain," said Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA. Tropical Storm Nicholas moved slowly through the Gulf Coast on Tuesday, leaving hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses without power, although Texas refineries ran normally. Damage from the storm comes two weeks after Hurricane Ida knocked a significant amount of Gulf Coast refining capacity offline. "This year's hurricane season has a much greater and longer-lasting impact on the global oil balance than in previous years," said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates. Oil prices also found support from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said on Tuesday vaccine roll-outs would power a rebound, after a three-month slide in global oil demand due to the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and renewed pandemic restrictions. But oil price gains were capped by a fall in China's crude throughput in August with daily refinery runs hitting the lowest since May 2020 and overall factory output faltering.

WTI Extends Gains As US Crude Inventories Slump To 2-Year Lows - Oil prices extended gains overnight following across-the-board inventory draws reported by API, as the impact of Hurricane Ida's shut-ins combined with reports from the International Energy Agency this week that the world will have to wait until October for more supply to come online as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies hike production.“It’s bullish developments left, right and center these days,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC.“Last night’s report from the American Petroleum Institute that showed an over 5 million barrel draw in crude stocks is helping prices. We should expect more gains in prices if the EIA confirms what the API reported.”All the bulls' eyes will be focused on the official data to confirm API's... DOE:

• Crude -6.422mm (-3.5mm exp)
• Cushing -1.103mm
• Gasoline -1.857mm
• Distillates -1.689mm

Following API's reported draws across all the energy complex, the official data from EIA confirmed big draws for crude, gasoline, and distillates and at the Cushing storage facility... Overall US crude inventory (ex-SPR) is back at its lowest in two years... US Crude production has been slow to recover from Hurricane Ida's shut-ins. According to data from the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, shut-ins last week averaged over 1.5 million barrels per day.

Oil Surged Higher Wednesday | Rigzone - Oil jumped to the highest in six weeks amid signs of a rapidly tightening market after a U.S. government report showed a bigger-than-expected decline in crude stockpiles. Futures in New York surged 3.1% on Wednesday and global benchmark Brent closed above $75 a barrel for the first time since July. U.S. crude supplies hit the lowest since September 2019 after falling by more than 6 million barrels, exceeding projections. The data follow the International Energy Agency’s warning that recent supply lost from storms in the U.S. Gulf have offset what OPEC and its allies have added, and the world will have to wait until October for more barrels. “There’s not a lot of new crude supply coming to the market, so the market feels awfully tight,” said Matt Sallee, who helps manage about $8 billion at Tortoise. “That will keep crude prices moving higher. Covid demand worries are taking a backseat for now.” Prices have steadily climbed since late August and were given a further boost when Hurricane Ida shut down a chunk of U.S. Gulf Coast offshore oil production. Meanwhile, the latest analysis from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries shows a looming supply crunch in the summer of 2022. OPEC’s analysts now see global oil demand increasing by 4.15 million barrels a day in 2022, compared to the level expected for this year, an upward revision of 860,000 barrels a day from what they forecast a month ago. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery advanced $2.15 to settle at $72.61 a barrel in New York. Brent for November settlement rose $1.86 to end the session at $75.46 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. U.S. supply restraints have caused Brent and WTI benchmark crude’s so called timespreads to strengthen. WTI crude for December delivery settled at $6.23 a barrel higher than that for supply in the same month next year. That’s the biggest premium in more than a month. The Energy Information Administration report also showed that national gasoline and distillate inventories each declined by nearly 2 million barrels. A sharper drop would have likely occurred had petroleum consumption not been affected by recent U.S. Gulf Coast storms. Additionally, offshore natural gas production has been slow to recover since the recent storms, causing prices to rally. That might prompt power companies to use petroleum products such as fuel oil to run as feedstock in their plants, according to Sallee. “That will buoy crude prices even higher,” he said.

WTI Futures Spike 3% as Big Draw Highlights Supply Concerns -- Nearby delivery month oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Wednesday's session with gains between 1.5% and 3%. Gains were propelled by a second consecutive week of sharp inventory drawdowns from U.S. commercial crude and petroleum product stocks amid extended production outages in the Gulf of Mexico, while stronger-than-expected industrial data in the Eurozone and domestically fueled optimism over accelerated demand growth in the fourth quarter.This year's Atlantic hurricane season has already proved to be more destructive and having a greater impact on global supply balances than in previous years. More evidence of longer-lasting effects on domestic infrastructure from Hurricane Ida than is typical for a hurricane is found in Wednesday's government inventory report from the Energy Information Administration showing domestic petroleum stockpiles plunged more than 10 million barrels (bbl) for the second consecutive week through Sept. 10, with refiners and producers in the region making slow progress in their recovery from disrupted operations. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement Wednesday afternoon reported 29.52% or 537,000 barrels per day (bpd) of current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico still remains offline post Hurricane Ida, which made landfall on Aug. 29.Commercial crude oil stockpiles plunged 6.4 million bbl last week compared with calls for a smaller 2.5 million bbl drop. At 417.4 million bbl, domestic crude supplies now stand about 7% below the five-year average. A larger-than-expected crude draw came as refinery run rates nationwide increased just 0.2% compared to calls for a 2.4% jump week-on-week. Gasoline stockpiles fell a less-than-expected 1.9 million bbl with demand for the motor transportation fuel tumbling 7.5% to 8.892 million bpd. Demand for distillate fuels, often seen as a proxy for economic activity, edged higher by 110,000 bpd from the previous week to 3.795 million bpd. Distillate stockpiles declined by 1.7 million bbl to about 13% below the five-year average at 131.9 million bbl. Interestingly, U.S. industrial production increased 0.4% last month despite widespread shut-ins related to Hurricane Ida that held down an expansion in industrial production by an estimated 0.3%, said Federal Reserve this morning. "Although the hurricane forced plant closures for petrochemicals, plastic resins, and petroleum refining, overall manufacturing output still rose 0.2% and was 1% above the pre-pandemic level," the Fed said. Mining production fell 0.6%, reflecting hurricane-induced disruptions to oil and gas extraction in the Gulf of Mexico. The output of utilities increased 3.3%, as unseasonably warm weather boosted demand for air conditioning. Internationally, Eurozone's statistical office Eurostat reported industrial output in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 1.5% in July compared with calls for 0.5% increase, underscoring a quick rebound in Eurozone manufacturing economy. Elevated energy prices across the EU should be supportive for the broader oil complex heading into the fall and winter seasons, with forecasts pointing to higher-than-usual demand for heating fuels. On the session, NYMEX October West Texas Intermediate contract advanced $2.15 for a $72.61-per-bbl settlement, and Brent crude for November delivery rallied $1.86 to $75.46 per bbl. NYMEX October RBOB futures advanced 3.42 cents to $2.2066 per gallon, and front-month ULSD futures surged 4.40 cents for a $2.2053-per-gallon settlement.

Oil Futures Follow Equities Down Ahead of Key Economic Data -- Following an explosive data-driven rally on Wednesday, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange moved lower in overnight trade, weighed down by a strengthening U.S. dollar index and sagging equity futures as investors turned cautious ahead of the release of key economic data in the United States that could give additional clues on how the Delta-driven surge in coronavirus infections has affected economy's recovery.In early morning trading, the NYMEX October West Texas Intermediate contract slipped $0.23 to trade near $72.38 per barrel (bbl) after adding more than $2 on Wednesday, and Brent crude for November delivery declined to $75.26 bbl. NYMEX October RBOB futures traded little changed near $2.2057 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures slipped 0.64 cents from a $2.2053 a gallon settlement on Wednesday.The U.S. Dollar Index jumped 0.18% against the basket of foreign currencies to trade above 92.7-level, with investors awaiting the release of weekly unemployment claims and U.S. retail sales for August that could help define a direction for markets. Following July's contraction of 1.1%, investors expect retail sales to decline by 0.8% in August, with rising prices joined with the delta-driven surge in coronavirus infections likely to dampen consumer spending in the final weeks of summer.Markets will likely put a lot of emphasis on last month's retail sales ahead of next week's highly anticipated Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting, scheduled for Sept. 21-22. Combined with deteriorating consumer sentiment and lower-than-expected August jobs report, which showed an increase of 235,000 in nonfarm payrolls, disappointing retail sales data could force the Fed's hand to delay tapering of asset purchases. The Federal Reserve currently buys $120 billion a month in bond and mortgage-backed securities.Tuesday's inflation data revealed that the Core Consumer Price Index in August edged lower to 4% on a yearly basis from 4.3% in July, supporting the view that the Fed could afford to remain cautious with regards to tapering.Last week's unemployment claims are expected to tick higher but remain near the pandemic low of 310,000, with analysts pointing to a likely increase in new fillings from Hurricane-hit Louisiana and Texas this month. Wednesday's industrial data from the US Federal Reserve showed Hurricane related shutdowns in Louisiana shaved off at least 0.3% from the total industrial output last month. "Although the hurricane forced plant closures for petrochemicals, plastic resins, and petroleum refining, overall manufacturing output still rose 0.2% and was 1% above the pre-pandemic level," the Fed said.Limiting the downside for the oil complex, Wednesday's inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed commercial crude-oil supplies fell by a massive 6.4 million bbl last week compared with calls for a smaller 2.5 million bbl drop. At 417.4 million bbl, domestic crude supplies now stand about 7% below the five-year average.

Oil Prices Steady as U.S. Storm Threat Wanes (Reuters) -Oil prices steadied on Thursday after hitting a multi-week high a day earlier as the threat to U.S. Gulf crude production from Hurricane Nicholas receded. Brent crude ended the session up 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $75.67 a barrel. On Wednesday Brent touched $76.13, its highest since July 30. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended the session unchanged at $72.61 a barrel after climbing to the highest since Aug. 2 on Wednesday. U.S. Gulf energy companies have been able to restore pipeline service and electricity quickly after Hurricane Nicholas passed through Texas early this week, allowing them to focus on efforts to repair the damage caused weeks earlier by Hurricane Ida. "As Nicholas spared U.S. production from further disruptions, it is difficult to see how oil prices can increase further in the near term," "Ida-affected oil production capacity continues to recover in the U.S." Oil jumped on Wednesday, supported by figures showing U.S. crude inventories fell by a bigger-than-expected 6.4 million barrels last week, with offshore oil facilities still recovering from Ida's impact. [EIA/S] Brent has rallied about 45% this year, supported by supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, plus some recovery from last year's pandemic-related collapse in demand. Oil is also finding support from a surge in European power prices, which have soared because of factors including low gas inventories and lower-than-normal gas supply from Russia. Benchmark European gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub have risen by more than 250% since January.

Gulf of Mexico: Oil falls as storm-hit US supply trickles back into market - Oil prices fell on Friday as energy companies in the US Gulf of Mexico restarted production after back-to-back hurricanes in the region shut output. Brent crude futures fell 33 cents to settle at $75.34 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 64 cents to settle at $71.97 a barrel. For the week, Brent was up 3.3% and US crude was up 3.2%, supported by tight supplies due to the hurricane outages.Friday's slump followed five straight sessions of rises for Brent. On Wednesday, Brent hit its highest since late July, and US crude hit its highest since early August."The reason oil prices reached such highs in the last few days was clearly supply disruptions and drawdowns in inventories, so now that US oil production is returning, oil as expected trades lower," said Nishant Bhushan, Rystad Energy's oil markets analyst.Gulf Coast crude oil exports are flowing again after hurricanes Nicholas and Ida took out 26 million barrels of offshore production. Restarts continued with about 28% of US Gulf of Mexico crude output offline, Reuters reported on Thursday.US energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row although the number of offshore units in the Gulf of Mexico remained unchanged after Hurricane Ida slammed into the coast over two weeks ago.Fourteen offshore Gulf of Mexico rigs shut two weeks ago due to Ida remained shut, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. Last week, four offshore rigs returned to service.The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose nine to 512 in the week to Sept. 17, its highest since April 2020, Baker Hughes said.The dollar climbed to a multi-week high on Friday, making dollar-denominated crude more expensive for those using other currencies. The dollar got a boost from better-than-expected US retail sales data on Thursday.

Oil Drops Friday But Up On The Week | Rigzone - Oil declined amid Russia’s plans to boost upcoming overseas oil sales and as the dollar rallied. Futures in New York ended the session nearly 1% lower on Friday. Russia will increase its oil exports 3% in the fourth quarter, according to Interfax. Meanwhile, gains in the U.S. dollar reduced investor interest in commodities priced in the currency. “There’s been demand destruction starting with higher prices across energy markets broadly and there’s Russian’s plans to raise its global oil sales,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. Despite weaker prices on Friday, U.S. benchmark crude futures gained more than 3% this week due to tightening supplies. In the U.S., crude inventories tumbled to the lowest level since 2019 and fuel supplies also fell, according to government data this week. Investors have been tracking strong rallies in other energy commodities as well, especially natural gas, which has surged by about 45% so far this quarter and spurred the prospect of fuel switching. But as prices climb there are increasing signs governments are growing uneasy with the knock-on effects. U.S. President Joe Biden said Thursday that his administration is looking into high gasoline prices, while China said this week that it will sell oil from its strategic reserve. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for October delivery fell 64 cents to settle at $71.97 a barrel. Brent for November settlement dropped 33 cents to end the session at $75.34 a barrel. Growing supply tightness has made crude markets more backwardated, bullish pattern with near-dated prices more expensive than those further out. Meanwhile, products like propane that are used in heating and rally seasonally in the winter are trading at multiyear highs as natural gas prices surge. “Fundamentals have gotten better and as long as they continue to improve, oil prices will rise,” said Peter McNally, global head of industrials, materials and energy at Third Bridge. “We have not hit a ceiling yet.” With the focus on high energy prices across Europe, the International Energy Agency’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said gas prices could remain high for weeks to come on strong demand. He also said he would be surprised to see oil above $100 a barrel, despite a strong rebound in demand this year. (With assistance from Sharon Cho and Alex Longley. © 2021

UN warns one million Afghan children at risk of starvation before winter hits - U.N. Secretary General António Guterres on Monday warned that millions of Afghans could run out of food by this winter. As The New York Times reported, Guterres gave the warning while speaking in Geneva at a U.N. conference on the matter of Afghanistan's dwindling resources and the livelihood of its people.“After decades of war, suffering and insecurity, they face perhaps their most perilous hour,” said Guterres.According to Guterres, a third of Afghans don't know where their next meal will come from. He added that donors from the international community have pledged over a billion dollars to Afghanistan.Earlier in September, a Taliban spokesperson said the U.N. hadpromised to continue providing aidto the Afghan people following a meeting held in Kabul with the U.N.'s Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths.Shortly after the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, the international community moved to cut off the country from accessing global resources. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund blocked Afghanistan from accessing resources and the U.S. froze billions in Afghan funds being held in U.S. banks.Last week, the U.N. called for Afghanistan's frozen funds to be released in order to avoid "a severe economic downturn.""The economy must be allowed to breathe for a few more months, giving the Taliban a chance to demonstrate flexibility and a genuine will to do things differently this time, notably from a human rights, gender, and counter-terrorism perspective," said Deborah Lyons, the U.N. secretary-general’s special representative for Afghanistan. On Monday, it was announced that the U.S. would be sending almost $64 million in humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. The funds will be distributed through the U.N. and independent aid groups.

Senior Taliban figure says women should not work alongside men - A senior Taliban figure in a new interview said women should not be able to work alongside men, raising concerns for women as the insurgent group works to form its government after capturing control of Afghanistan last month. Waheedullah Hashimi, a senior figure in the insurgent group who is close to leadership, told Reuters that the Taliban plan to fully implement a version of Sharia, ignoring pleas from the international community to allow women to have equal rights in the country. “We have fought for almost 40 years to bring [the] sharia law system to Afghanistan,” Hashimi told the news wire. “Sharia ... does not allow men and women to get together or sit together under one roof.” “Men and women cannot work together. That is clear. They are not allowed to come to our offices and work in our ministries,” he added. Hashimi also told Reuters that the ban on women would apply to industries such as media and banking, were women have become increasingly involved in since the Taliban were toppled in 2001 and a new government was established. It is unclear how much Hashimi’s comments reflect the thoughts of the new government, but they do go further than previous statements made about women’s standing in Afghanistan under the new Taliban rule, Reuters noted. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told NBC News last month that women will have “all the rights that Islam promises,” adding that “they can be doctors, teachers, be educated and can work to benefit society.” On Sunday, the Taliban’s new minister of higher education, Abdul Baqi Haqqani, said Afghan women will be allowed to study at universities but only in gender-segregated classrooms. Additionally, they will be required to abide by a strict dress code, which includes hijabs. Hashimi echoed that sentiment, telling Reuters that women would “of course” be needed in sectors such as medicine and education but that separate facilities will be established. “We will of course need women, for example in medicine, in education. We will have separate institutions for them, separate hospitals, separate universities maybe, separate schools, separate madrassas,” he said.

Brother of former Afghan VP killed by Taliban - The Taliban have gunned down resistance fighter Rohullah Azizi, brother to ex-Vice President Amrullah Saleh. The former politician is now one of the leaders of anti-Taliban forces in the holdout Panjshir valley. The brother of Afghanistan's former Vice President Amrullah Saleh has been shot dead by the Taliban, his nephews told news agencies on Saturday.Rohullah Azizi was an anti-Taliban fighter in the last holdout province of Panjshir, and Saleh is now one of the leaders of the resistance movement against their strict new rule. Rohullah Azizi was traveling with his driver on Thursday when Taliban fighters stopped them at a checkpoint in Khanez village in the province of Panjshir, the relatives said."As we hear at the moment [the] Taliban shot him and his driver at the checkpoint.'' nephew Shuresh Saleh told The Associated Press.Saleh said it was unclear where his uncle, an anti-Taliban fighter, was headed when he was stopped. He said phones were not working in the area.Another nephew, Ebadullah told Reuters news agency: "They killed him yesterday and would not let us bury him. They kept saying his body should rot."

How mass killings by US forces after 9/11 boosted support for the Taliban - The men of Zangabad village, Panjwai district lined up on the eve of 11 September to count and remember their dead, the dozens of relatives who they say were killed at the hands of the foreign forces that first appeared in their midst nearly 20 years ago. Their cluster of mud houses, fields and pomegranate orchards was the site of perhaps the most notorious massacre of the war, when US SSgt Robert Bales walked out of a nearby base to slaughter local families in cold blood. He killed 16 people, nine of them children. America’s tragedy, thousands of families’ terrible losses on that September morning in 2001, would indirectly unravel into similar grief for thousands of other families half a world away. Afghans who knew little or nothing about the planes flying into towers in New York, and certainly had no link at all to al-Qaida, were caught up in the war that followed, and that claimed their loved ones year after year.Haji Muhammad Wazir lost almost all his immediate family, apart from his four-year-old son in the early hours of 11 March 2012. It was more than a decade after the twin towers came down, but they were the reason the US military was on his doorstep. Bales killed his wife, four sons, four daughters and two other relatives. He shot the children in the head then tried to burn their bodies.“It is very hard for me, I still feel like these things are happening right now,” Wazir told the Guardian, “I am very happy the American forces have finally left Afghanistan, and very grateful to Allah for making this happen. At last I feel safe.”Those murders were perhaps the most high-profile civilian deaths of the war. But it was not the only time foreign forces killed large numbers of women, children and non-combatant men, in just this one corner of a single district of Afghanistan.Five men from Zangabad who spoke to the Guardian said they lost 49 relatives between them in airstrikes and the massacre, bloodshed spanning nearly a decade. These terrible losses, repeated in many parts of Afghanistan, would prove powerful recruiting tools for the Taliban, as they slowly gathered their forces to retake the country.“I could not go and fight, because I was the only person left from my family to look after my son, but I was supporting them financially and in other ways,” Wazir said of the aftermath of his tragedy.The Taliban commander for Panjwai district, Faizani Mawlawi Sahab, said each mass killing drove more people into their arms, and the slaughter of 2012 provoked particular grief and horror. “Although some people were supporting us before, after this incident everyone joined or helped us in some way,” he said.

China is already sending aid to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, filling the gap the US left - China is already sending aid to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, filling the financial gap left by the US and other world powers. Since the Taliban took Kabul on August 15, the Biden administration has frozen as much as $10 billion in Afghan reserves held by US banks. Simultaneously, Western countries like the US, UK, and Germany suspended their aid programs to the country, largely citing the need to not legitimize the Taliban. The World Bank and NATO have also done so. On the ground, Afghan civilians are in desperate need of help, with the United Nations warning on Thursday of a "looming humanitarian catastrophe." It said $200 million was needed to plug the gap. Last week, China pledged $31 million worth of food, medicine, and COVID-19 vaccines, to Afghanistan, the first sizable foreign-aid promise from a major nation since August 15. For China, the new Taliban regime signals a chance to extend its reach and access natural reserves. On September 3, the Taliban said China had promised to keep its embassy open and "beef up" relations. In late July, as the US was withdrawing from Afghanistan, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted Taliban leaders in his country, in a clear sign of warming relations between the two powers. "With the U.S. withdrawal, Beijing can offer what Kabul needs most: political impartiality and economic investment," Zhou Bo, a former colonel in the China's People's Liberation Army, wrote in The New York Times. "Afghanistan in turn has what China most prizes: opportunities in infrastructure and industry building — areas in which China's capabilities are arguably unmatched — and access to $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits."

China imposes local lockdowns as COVID-19 cases surge - — China tightened lockdowns and increased orders for mass testing in cities along its east coast Wednesday amid the latest surge in COVID-19 cases. Checks have been set up in toll stations around the city of Putian in Fujian province, with a dozen of them closed entirely. The nearby cities of Xiamen and Quanzhou have also restricted travel as the delta variant spreads through the region. The National Health Commission on Wednesday said an additional 50 cases had been diagnosed in various parts of Fujian, most of them in the Putian region. Since the start of the pandemic, first detected in late 2019 in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, China has imposed strict testing, lockdowns, quarantines and mask wearing requirements. Fujian has seen at least 152 new cases in recent days, prompting stay-at-home orders and the closure of entertainment, dining and fitness venues, along with the cancellation of group activities including those for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Long-distance bus service to other parts of the province has been suspended. China has largely stopped the spread of COVID-19 but new outbreaks continue to occur in various parts of the country. A delta variant outbreak in July and August spread to several provinces, raising concern about new and more contagious variants. The National Health Commission says it has administered more than 2 billion doses of vaccine, although the efficacy of the domestically developed serums has been called into question, particularly in dealing with the delta variant. While the lockdowns and other stern measures have taken a toll on the economy and daily life, most of the country has overcome the impact of the initial outbreak. Authorities are taking no chances, however. The discovery of a suspected case in Beijing’s eastern Chaoyang district prompted officials Wednesday to bar residents of a high-rise community from leaving their apartments, according to the newspaper Health Times published by the ruling Communist Party. Students and teachers have also been encouraged to avoid traveling during the upcoming three-day Mid-Autumn Festival beginning Sunday, along with the Oct. 1-7 National Day vacation.

Coronavirus concerns see China halt Vietnam’s US$1 billion dragon fruit trade - China is the top destination for Vietnamese dragon fruit – representing over 80 per cent of total shipments and amounting to US$1 billion a year Authorities in the Guangxi region, bordering Vietnam, found traces of coronavirus on packaging and cardboard boxes shipped from Quang Ninh province

More on the China Slowdown - Econbrowser by Menzie Chinn - 12h (see graphs) From BBVA (Jinyue Dong & Le Xia) today, discussing August data: “China | Worse-than-expected growth deceleration exposed the vulnerability of its anti-virus strategy”:The August real economic indicators were released by the National Bureau of Statistics today, further confirming a continuing deceleration growth amid the recent regulation storms as well as the Delta variant virus flare-ups in mainland China. In particular, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all tumbled in terms of year on year growth. And here are three graphs: FAI is short for “Fixed Asset Investment”. Be careful with reading this graph, as the figures are the % change year-on-year on year-to-date investment (because these statistics are reported on YTD basis). More, from Bloomberg a couple days ago, in anticipation of these August data. See also the day before yesterday’s post on the China slowdown.

Kim Jong Un's sister threatens 'complete destruction' of relationship with South Korea -- Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, threatened the “complete destruction” of the North’s relationship with South Korea on Wednesday after both countries tested ballistic missiles.Kim, in a statement carried by state media and cited by The Associated Press, slammed South Korean President Moon Jae-in for comments he made while watching the country’s first missile test.Moon said South Korea’s increasing missile abilities will be a “sure deterrence” against provocations from the North, according to the AP.Kim criticized Moon for saying the North’s weapons demonstrations were a provocation, and warned of consequences should he continue using the same language.“If the president joins in the slander and detraction [against us], this will be followed by counter actions, and the North-South relations will be pushed toward a complete destruction,” Kim said, according to the AP. “We do not want that.”Kim contended that the North is increasing its military capabilities for self-defense purposes and not to target any particular country, according to the news wire. She also noted that the South has been building up its military abilities.Both North and South Korea tested missiles on Wednesday, as tensions continue to rise in the region.The North launched two missiles off the west coast of the Korean Peninsula. Less than three hours later, the South fired a missile from a submerged 3,700-ton submarine.That missile reportedly hit its intended target accurately.The test launches come after North Korea this weekend successfully test-fired its new long-range cruise missiles. The U.S. has urged North Korea to recommit to nuclear talks, but discussions are currently at a stalemate. The North has asked for sanctions to be lifted before talks are resurrected.

Tourism spots in Southeast Asia are set to reopen despite Delta surges. - Thailand and Vietnam, two countries whose economies rely largely on tourism, are pushing to reopen their travel industries despite surges in coronavirus cases and outbreaks of the Delta variant.Late last week, the Vietnamese government announced a reopening of the island of Phu Quoc to fully vaccinated overseas tourists, with the goal of attracting two to three million international visitors to the island by the end of the year. Alongside that move, the chairman of the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism, Nguyen Trung Khanh, said that efforts to vaccinate residents on the island would be a priority.In 2019, Vietnam saw more than 18 million international tourists. But in a sign of the profound effect of the pandemic, overseas arrivals in the month of March 2020, as the coronavirus began to hit hard, dropped steeply, to only about 32 percent of the number in the same month a year earlier, according to Vietnamese tourism statistics.While Vietnam did a good job of containing the virus in the initial stages of the pandemic, like many other countries it has struggled to contain the Delta variant this year. The country is recording a daily average of 12,724 new cases, according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. Only 4.9 percent of the population is fully vaccinated, according toOur World in Data figures. Thailand is also set to welcome back fully vaccinated tourists, to Bangkok and other major tourism destinations, starting in October,according to Reuters. It is the second phase of a reopening plan that began over the past two months, with the reopening of places including the island of Phuket.Thailand had nearly 40 million international visitors in 2019. Tourism accounts for about a fifth of the country’s economic activity, according to the International Monetary Fund, and the pandemic contributed to a drop of 6.1 percent in the country’s G.D.P. in 2020. Thailand is reporting about 14,000 new daily cases, according to the country’s tourism authority, and there have been public protestsabout the government’s handling of the pandemic. In 2020, Thailand registered fewer than 100 Covid-related deaths, but the toll in 2021 already exceeds 12,000.

South Africa eases restrictions as Covid cases decline. - South Africa is easing some of its coronavirus restrictions, with new infections dropping across all provinces, President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Sunday.“While the third wave is not yet over, we have seen a sustained decline in infections across the country over the last few weeks,” Mr. Ramaphosa said. The seven-day average of daily new cases has decreased by 48 percent in the past 14 days, according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.When the latest wave of cases surged in June, South Africa introduced some tough restrictions, then relaxed them as cases fell in July. For about a month, restaurants could only sell food by takeout or delivery, alcohol sales were banned and schools were closed.New rules introduced on Monday further eased those restrictions. The nationwide curfew has been shortened by an hour, operating hours at restaurants, bars and fitness centers have been expanded and hours of alcohol sales have been extended. As many as 250 people may now meet indoors, and as many as 500 outdoors — changes that are expected to make political campaigning easier ahead of local elections in November.While the easing of restrictions in other parts of the world has been driven by the accelerating pace of vaccinations, South Africa’s vaccination drive has been slow. But the government has secured enough doses to vaccinate the entire adult population, Mr. Ramaphosa said. About 18 percent of the country’s population has been partially vaccinated and 12 percent has been fully vaccinated,according to figures from Our World in Data.Across Africa, new cases are falling. The continent recently recorded the sharpest seven-day decline in two months, the World Health Organization said this month. But the shortage of doses has left the continent vulnerable to surges, especially of more contagious variants.

Bennett says Israel to genetically scan all arrivals for the coronavirus - Israel is working on a system to conduct genetic scanning for all those who arrive in the country in order to better identify travelers infected with the coronavirus, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said at a cabinet meeting Sunday. Bennett told ministers that the system will eventually be deployed at Ben Gurion Airport, the country’s main international terminus. “We are working on a scanning system for everyone who comes into Israel,” Bennett said, according to comments from the meeting leaked to Hebrew media. “Israel will thus become the radar for the virus.” No further details about the system or how it would work were reported by Hebrew media. Bennett expressed support for Social Equality Minister Meirav Cohen, who had warned that “the next variant will come to Israel through Ben Gurion,” saying the proposed genetic testing would help prevent that from happening. The development came as the cabinet reviewed various aspects of the campaign to confront a recent wave of virus infections fueled by the highly contagious Delta variant, which has largely been attributed to infected travelers who did not properly quarantine after arriving in Israel. The government has made vaccination against COVID-19 a central strategy to curb the spread, including offering third booster shots to all those over the age of 12. At the meeting, Bennett said: “We have run out of patience for people who are not vaccinated.”

Vladimir Putin in self-isolation after members of inner circle get COVID-19 -Russian President Vladimir Putin is self-isolating as a precaution after several members of his inner circle contracted COVID-19 — but has tested negative for the illness and is “absolutely healthy,” the Kremlin announced Tuesday.The 68-year-old strongman, who received the second jab of the Russian vaccine Sputnik V in April, decided to self-isolate in consultation with doctors, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.He didn’t say for how long Putin would remain in self-isolation, but assured that the leader will continue to work as usual.Peskov told reporters that Putin is “absolutely healthy” and when asked if the president has tested negative for the virus, he said, “Definitely, yes.”The spokesman didn’t say who among Putin’s contacts were infected, saying only that there were several cases. A day earlier, the Russian leader met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Inflation – A Comprehensive Global Database, 1970-2021 --From Ha, Kose, and Ohnsorge, One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation: This paper introduces a global database that contains inflation series: (i) for a wide range of inflation measures (headline, food, energy, and core consumer price inflation; producer price inflation; and gross domestic product deflator changes); (ii) at multiple frequencies (monthly, quarterly and annual) for an extended period (1970–2021); and (iii) for a large number (up to 196) of countries. As it doubles the number of observations over the next-largest publicly available sources, the database constitutes a comprehensive, single source for inflation series. The paper illustrates the potential use of the database with three applications. First, it studies the evolution of inflation since 1970 and document the broad-based disinflation around the world over the past half-century, with global consumer price inflation down from a peak of roughly 17 percent in 1974 to 2.5 percent in 2020. Second, it examines the behavior of inflation during global recessions. Global inflation fell sharply (on average by 0.9 percentage points) in the year to the trough of global recessions and continued to decline even as recoveries got underway. In 2020, inflation declined less, and more briefly, than in any of the previous four global recessions over the past 50 years. Third, the paper analyzes the role of common factors in explaining movements in different measures of inflation. While, across all inflation measures, inflation synchronization has risen since the early 2000s, it has been much higher for inflation measures that involve a larger share of tradable goods. Here’s one figure from the paper.

European Manufacturers Halt Production, Citing Natural Gas Prices; Freeport LNG Still Offline — The Offtake - A roundup of news and commentary from NGI’s LNG Insight

• U.S. manufacturer CF Industries Holdings Inc. and Norwegian chemical producer Yara International ASA announced closures of their facilities because of extraordinarily high European natural gas prices, which neared $30/MMBtu this week. Yara said 40% of its European ammonia production capacity would be shut down next week, while CF Industries said its UK facilities in Billingham and Ince would be closed.
• UK Steel Director General Gareth Stace also said earlier this week some steel plants across the country were closed because of high energy prices. The blackouts could finally help curb the meteoric rise in European prices, which rose again on Friday.
• Adding to the energy crunch, Freeport LNG in Texas remained without power Friday as crews worked for a fourth day to restore it. It was unclear when the plant might return to service. Feed gas deliveries to U.S. terminals have declined due to the outage.
• Cheniere Energy Inc. has asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for approval to introduce feed gas and refrigerants to the sixth train at Sabine Pass LNG in Louisiana. Approval was requested by Tuesday (Sept. 21). Train 6 is expected to be complete in 1Q2022.

European Industrial Blackouts Said Possible This Winter Amid Soaring Natural Gas Prices - Some of Europe’s industrial power consumers could face blackouts this winter if natural gas prices climb any higher, analysts with Goldman Sachs Commodities Research warned this week. European benchmarks have soared to new heights as storage inventories remain short with colder weather approaching and traders baking in a winter risk premium. Goldman analysts led by Samantha Dart said the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract could balance the market at $17.60/MMBtu amid normal winter weather. That would allow for maximum gas-to-coal switching in the power sector and help normalize end-of-winter storage. However, the wildcard remains weather. If Europe and Asia were to face colder-than-normal temperatures, they may compete aggressively for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes, which could spur another breakneck rally in prices. “Under such an outcome, the only balancing mechanism would be a significant further rally in European gas and power prices reflective of the need to destroy demand, with curtailed power demand in the industrial sector through blackouts,” the Goldman team said in a recent note to clients. Both TTF and the UK’s National Balancing Point (NBP) broke through $20 last week amid a 13-day run of records that culminated Wednesday with both of the prompt contracts settling above $24. Prices corrected lower Thursday. Norwegian pipeline imports rebounded, fears eased over a cut in British power imports following a fire on a 2 GW interconnector with France and prices that could be too high for the appetites of some pushed prices down. “At the extreme prices the market is experiencing, demand destruction is a serious possibility, where certain industries are stopping production due to unprofitable margins,” said Schneider Electric risk associate Wolfgang Haider on Thursday.

EU chief calls for more military independence amid new 'era of regional rivalries' — There is a new international order, where competition is fierce and some nations "stop at nothing to gain influence," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday. Speaking at her annual "State of the European Union" parliamentary address, von der Leyen described the currrent environment of foreign relations as "a new era of hyper-competitiveness." "An era of regional rivalries and major powers refocusing their attention towards each other," she said, while adding that "recent events in Afghanistan are not the cause of this change — but they are a symptom of it." The withdrawal of American and allied troops from Afghanistan fueled a much faster-than-expected takeover of the country by the Taliban. The whole process and subsequent evacuation efforts have raised concerns in the EU about its dependence on the United States in terms of defense and security. As such, some EU leaders have resurfaced the concept of a strategic autonomy — the idea that the bloc needs to develop its own defense capabilities — and a topic that von der Leyen is keen to pursue. "Witnessing events unfold in Afghanistan was profoundly painful for all the families of fallen servicemen and servicewomen," von der Leyen said Wednesday. "Europe can — and clearly should — be able and willing to do more on its own ... What we need is the European Defense Union," she said. The topic is likely to be in focus in the first half of 2022, when France, a keen supporter of the idea, is in charge of leading the discussions at the EU-level. The EU's economics chief, Paolo Gentiloni, told CNBC earlier this month that the bloc should step up its role on the geopolitical stage as the U.S. and other Western allies take a step back. During her hour-long speech, von der Leyen also asked China to be more concrete about its carbon neutrality plans. The country has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2060, but for von der Leyen this is not enough. "The goals that President Xi has set for China are encouraging. But we call for that same leadership on setting out how China will get there. The world would be relieved if they showed they could peak emissions by mid-decade — and move away from coal at home and abroad," von der Leyen told lawmakers.

UK schools in state of disrepair as they reopen to a raging pandemic - A survey of 1,500 British state school leaders conducted by the National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) revealed 83 percent do not have sufficient funds to repair dilapidated school buildings. Speaking to the Observer newspaper, school leaders complained of leaking ceilings, faulty heating systems, broken windows and inadequate ventilation systems. The run-down state of Britain’s classrooms will exacerbate the already dangerously high risk of COVID-19 transmission in schools. NAHT head of policy James Bowen commented that the pandemic has “laid bare the scale of the problem”. He added, “Issues like ventilation and having enough space suddenly became really important. We were desperately ill-prepared for that. The government’s latest advice on ventilation for schools said open as many windows as you can. If your windows are screwed shut because they’re not deemed to be safe, or you’ve got external doors that are faulty, that’s a real problem.” The findings of the NAHT survey confirm those of a Department of Education (DfE) study, which found that schools in England alone face a repair bill of £11.4 billion. It concluded that £2.5 billion was needed for electrical and IT repairs, £2 billion for boilers and air-conditioning repairs, and £1.5 billion for mending roofs, windows and walls. The DfE’s estimated cost of £11.4 billion for “remedial work to repair or replace all defective elements” is a near £5 billion increase on the £6.7 billion recommended by the National Audit Office (NAO) as necessary to return all school buildings to a satisfactory condition in 2017. The DfE admitted, “While [the NAO report] was calculated on a slightly different basis, this does demonstrate that the overall condition need in the estate has grown over the last six years”.