week ending Dec 11

 Powell's fourth major shift raises questions about Fed’s policy cred -- If the Federal Reserve meets expectations next week and announces a more aggressive unwind of the measures taken to boost the economy, it will mark an important policy shift for the U.S. central bank and Chairman Jerome Powell. Again. The Powell Fed, in fact, has become almost as known for its abrupt changes in direction as it has for the unprecedented levels of stimulus it has provided during the pandemic. "What the Fed has proven is the difficulty in forecasting by both committee and consensus," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis and former head of the National Economic Council under former President Donald Trump. "In market parlance, the Fed has bought the high and sold the low. So I do think there will be a credibility issue going forward." At its two-day meeting next week, the Fed is expected to say it will double the pace of its bond purchase taper, while also likely hinting at more aggressive interest rate hikes coming in 2022. The moves are coming in response to inflation that is stronger and longer-lasting than Fed officials had anticipated. But LaVorgna worries that the Fed, after months of calling inflation "transitory," is now making the mistake of overestimating its duration and tightening at the wrong time. That could necessitate officials again having to change back next year, if the current inflation trend runs out of steam. This would be at least the fourth such shift for an institution that prides itself on forecasts and communication, providing what it hopes to be a reliable road map for market participants and the public. But the whipsaw nature of the U.S. economy has wreaked havoc. A Fed committed to raising — or "normalizing" — interest rates in 2018 had to change its tune the following year when global weakness came calling. The central bank then closed 2019 with Powell and his colleagues insisting they had cut enough and were confident that rates would hold steady for the foreseeable future. The pandemic changed all that in 2020, forcing rate cuts and expansive monetary policy that eventually would see the Fed expand its balance sheet by more than $4 trillion. Later that year, though, the Fed would step in again and announce a paradigm shift in which it would focus more of its efforts on jobs and be willing to tolerate higher inflation. The Fed pledged it would keep policy easy until it had made "substantial further progress" toward employment that was not only full but also inclusive across gender, race and income. It's that last move that brings the Fed to its current crossroads: With price increases running at more than 30-year highs, the Fed is now expected to resume its role as an inflation fighter.

Rising Inflation Keeps Pressure on Fed to Dial Back Stimulus Faster – WSJ The latest strong inflation report strengthens the case for Federal Reserve officials to agree next week to accelerate the wind-down of their stimulus efforts, clearing the way for them to potentially lift interest rates in the spring. Consumer prices in November rose 6.8% from a year earlier, a 39-year high, the Labor Department reported Friday. Excluding volatile food and energy categories, so-called core inflation rose 4.9% in November.Fed officials have said they expected prices to remain elevated over the next few months, particularly after energy prices rose this fall. “The risk of higher inflation has increased,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a congressional hearing last week.Energy prices have started to decline in recent weeks, but because inflation was subdued in January and February of this year, 12-month measures in the coming months are likely to stay high.Fed officials’ concerns have shifted away from sharp, idiosyncratic increases in the prices of a handful of goods—used car and truck prices, for example, have soared 31.4% over the past 12 months. They are now watching broader price pressures that could strengthen as a swift rebound in labor markets spur stronger demandand higher wages, even if prices for items such as used cars drop back down.By early next year, the Fed may be confronting an unemployment rate that has dropped below 4%. With inflation running well above the Fed’s 2% target, those two developments would satisfy the central bank’s criteria to meet before raising interest rates from near zero.Mr. Powell last week signaled that central bank officials were rethinking how they should steer policy given greater uncertainty over the outlook for inflation and the prospect that the labor market has tightened much faster than anticipated.“Almost all forecasters do expect that inflation will be coming down meaningfully in the second half of next year,” Mr. Powell said. “The point is we can’t act as though we’re sure of that.”  Fed officials at their meeting next week are likely to speed up the process of reducing their monthly asset purchases from $90 billion in December. A quicker pace would put the stimulus program on track to end in March instead of June. They want to conclude the program before they raise rates. They are also likely to stop describing inflation this year as “transitory,” partly because of confusion over what the term means and partly to underscore greater humility around such forecasting. Officials could begin at their meeting next week and the following gathering in January to hash out a consensus on whether to raise rates this spring.Mr. Powell was more explicit last week than he had been before that the Fed might need to raise interest rates to cool down the economy to extend the economic expansion.“To get back to the kind of great labor market we had before the pandemic, we’re going to need…price stability,” Mr. Powell said. “And in a sense, the risk of persistent high inflation is also a major risk to getting back to such a labor market.” Mr. Powell also offered a rare concession that the central bank might have erred in its earlier assessments about how long inflation would rise. “What we missed about inflation was we didn’t predict the supply-side problems, and those are highly unusual and very difficult, very nonlinear. And it’s really hard to predict those things,” he said.

Who’s in the running for remaining Fed openings - — President Biden ended the guessing game last month over his choice to run the Federal Reserve Board when he announced the renomination of Chair Jerome Powell to another term leading the central bank. But Powell’s reappointment along with the nomination of Gov. Lael Brainard to one of two vice chair positions only provided some clarity about the leadership of the Fed. The administration still has to name three additional picks to the Fed’s board of governors, including the pivotal vice chair for supervision.The White House has signaled that the additional nominations could come soon."The President intends to make those appointments beginning in early December, and is committed to improving the diversity in the Board’s composition," according to a White House statement released when Powell's nomination was announced.Gov. Randal Quarles’ term as vice chair for supervision — effectively the Fed’s top bank regulatory position — ended recently and he plans to leave the board at the end of December. Meanwhile Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s term expires at the end of January, and an additional board seat has been vacant since before Biden took office.The Wall Street Journal recently reported that former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray was among the candidates for Fed vice chair for supervision. Bloomberg News later reported that Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and Duke University law professor Sarah Bloom Raskin are also under consideration. Here is a look at the candidates for open seats on the Fed board.

• Sarah Bloom Raskin: Sarah Bloom Raskin, a former deputy Treasury secretary in the Obama administration and a Fed governor from 2010 to 2014, has been mentioned as a candidate to succeed Quarles as vice chair of supervision. An expert in financial regulation and monetary policy, Raskin — who is married to Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md. — also would help the White House fulfill its pledge to promote diversity at the Fed. Both Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, hold sway with the Fed pick, and Raskin is a candidate they can coalesce around, sources said.
• Raphael Bostic: Raphael Bostic, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, recently wrapped up a series of conferences on racism and the economy in conjunction with other Federal Reserve banks. Bostic appears to be a longshot for a Fed opening after telling Bloomberg TV in late November that he has not been contacted by the White House for any of the Fed positions. He had been mentioned previously as a potential White House pick for comptroller of the currency. Bostic, who has expertise on the Community Reinvestment Act, told Bloomberg that whoever ultimately takes the role of vice chair of supervision needs to understand structural barriers that impact employment and economic growth.
• Lisa Cook: Lisa Cook, a professor of economics and international relations at Michigan State University, has been floated as one of President Biden’s top choices for a seat on the Fed.Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, has said she is his top pick for a vacant Fed seat. If chosen, Cook would become the first Black woman to serve on the Fed board. Cook served on the Biden-Harris transition team as the deputy team lead for the Federal Reserve, Banking and Securities Regulators Agency Review Team, but she has zero experience in the banking industry making her a longshot to succeed Quarles as vice chair of supervision.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 5th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 15.2% from the same day in 2019 (84.8% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for the last four months (with some ups and downs) - but picked up recently, especially over the Thanksgiving holiday week. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through December 4, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. The 7-day average for the US is unchanged compared to 2019. - This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 2nd. Movie ticket sales were at $123 million last week, down about 36% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through November 27th. The occupancy rate was up 5.0% compared to the same week in 2019. This was the first week this year that was up compared to the same week in 2019. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of November 26th, gasoline supplied was down 2.6% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been ten weeks this year that gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - so consumption is running close to 2019 levels now. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through December 4th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 108% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but New York subway usage is down sharply (next graph).This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 41% of normal.This data is through Friday, December 3rd.

Congressional Leaders Reach Deal to Allow Debt Ceiling Increase— Congressional leaders in both parties reached a deal on Tuesday on a bill that would allow a swift increase in thedebt ceiling amid a Republican blockade, agreeing to attempt an unusual maneuver that could avert the threat of a first-ever federal default. Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, who called raising the limit “an imperative,” announced a House vote on the measure in a letter to Democrats after days of quiet bipartisan talks to resolve the stalemate. Its passage was not guaranteed in the evenly divided Senate, where Republicans have for weeks refused to let Democrats take up any bill to provide a long-term debt-ceiling increase, but Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader, signaled that it was a solution that he and his colleagues could accept. The Treasury Department has said that it could breach the statutory limit on its ability to borrow to finance the federal government’s obligations soon after Dec. 15 without congressional action, which would lead to a catastrophic default that could wreak havoc on the U.S. and global economies. The measure would create a special pathway — to be used only once, before mid-January — for the Senate to raise the debt limit by a specific amount with a simple majority vote, allowing Democrats to steer clear of a filibuster or other procedural hurdles so that Republicans would have no means to block it. Democrats are likely to choose a number that would keep the government from reaching the new debt ceiling before the midterm elections next year, but senior aides familiar with the talks did not immediately provide an amount. The contortions are necessary because Republicans have refused to drop their blockade against legislation to provide a long-term increase in the debt limit, going beyond merely opposing the increase and refusing to allow Democrats to do so unilaterally. The new bill would effectively strip them of that opportunity for a brief time, a solution that Mr. McConnell said would break the logjam. The proposal is wrapped into legislation that would postpone scheduled cuts to Medicare, farm aid and other mandatory spending programs that were set to kick in next year. Once that bill becomes law, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, would introduce separate legislation raising the debt limit. That is expected to pass with only Democratic votes in the 50-50 Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris is empowered to break ties. “I’m confident that this particular procedure, coupled with the avoidance of Medicare cuts, will achieve enough Republican support to clear the 60-vote threshold,” Mr. McConnell said, predicting a Thursday vote for the bill in the Senate. That would require 10 Republicans to join Democrats in advancing the bill, a prospect that Mr. McConnell discussed at lunch with members of his party on Tuesday afternoon.

McConnell faces GOP pushback on debt deal -Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is facing pushback over a deal announced Tuesday by congressional leaders that paves the way for Democrats to sidestep a filibuster and raise the debt ceiling. Under the agreement, the House and Senate will first pass a bill that prevents cuts to Medicare and also tees up a subsequent debt ceiling bill to pass by a simple majority in the Senate. The legislation is expected to hit a procedural hurdle Thursday that will require 10 GOP members to help advance the debt deal. That will pave the way for a bill to increase the debt ceiling that Democrats can pass on their own. But McConnell is sparking resistance within his own caucus both from conservatives, who raised concerns during a closed-door lunch, and GOP senators who previously helped advance a debt ceiling deal in October. “There are always very diverse points of view within our conference on these types of issues,” Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the No. 2 Senate Republican, acknowledged when asked about the pushback at the lunch. Republicans were describing the measure Tuesday as setting up a one-time exception to the filibuster. Though a GOP aide noted that the Senate routinely has a fast-track process for other issues like arms sales and trade deals, the debt agreement was drawing criticism from conservatives who don’t want to lift a finger to help Democrats extend the nation’s borrowing limit. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), in a tweet, called it a “Frankenstein bill” that would “neuter the Senate.” While Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) warned that Republicans should do nothing that helps Democrats raise the debt ceiling. “[Democrats] should at least own the responsibility for crushing debt they are necessitating. Republicans should not participate in racking up that debt, which is harming people across the country,” Cruz said. Democrats have pointed out that the debt ceiling needs to be lifted to cover bills signed by both President Biden and former President Trump, and that Democrats provided votes to suspend the borrowing limit during the Trump years. McConnell, during a closed-door caucus lunch, walked his caucus through the debt ceiling agreement, pitching it as a win for the party. He touted it as allowing the GOP to put the focus on Biden-era spending, which McConnell sees as a more potent line of attack heading into 2022, as well a victory for Republicans because Democrats will have to raise the debt ceiling to a specific number. “I think this is in the best interest of the country by avoiding default. I think it is also in the best interest of Republicans,” McConnell told reporters following the lunch. It’s not entirely clear, however, how many Senate Republicans agree with McConnell, who voiced confidence his party will have the 10 votes on Thursday. Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), a member of GOP leadership, acknowledged that preventing Medicare cuts is how the deal is being sold to Republicans but, "we’ll have to see how many people bought it."

McConnell 'confident' 10 GOP senators will back debt deal --Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on Tuesday that he’s “confident” enough Republicans will back a deal that paves the way for raising the debt ceiling by a simple majority.“We’ll be voting on it Thursday, and I’m confident that this particular procedure, coupled with the avoidance of Medicare cuts, will achieve enough Republican support to clear the 60-vote threshold,” McConnell said.Under the deal, at least 10 Republicans will need to help advance a bill that blocks Medicare cuts and lays out the instructions for taking up another bill to raise the debt ceiling by a simple majority.Democrats would then have to pass the bill to raise the debt ceiling by a specific number on their own. Sens. John Thune (S.D.) and Roy Blunt (Mo.), the No. 2 and No. 4 GOP senators, both predicted Republicans would help advance the bill that lays out the instructions for the debt ceiling.McConnell briefed the Senate GOP caucus on the agreement during a Tuesday lunch.McConnell’s confidence comes after an October fight on a short-term debt hike sparked hours of behind-the-scenes wrangling, with McConnell and his leadership team going down to the wire to shore up enough GOP support.McConnell vowed after the showdown, when he faced high-profile criticism from former President Trump and his own caucus, that Republicans wouldn’t help advance a debt ceiling increase again.

Senate GOP predicts it'll have 10 votes for debt deal -Top Senate Republicans are predicting that they'll get enough GOP support to help advance a deal on the debt ceiling as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) pitches his caucus on the agreement. Under the deal, the House and Senate will first need to pass a bill that sets up a subsequent one-time simple majority vote to raise the debt ceiling. Though Democrats would then be able to raise the debt ceiling on their own, they would need 10 GOP votes to advance the initial legislation that lays out how the debt ceiling vote will work. The House introduced the bill Wednesday that sets up and lays out the instructions for the debt ceiling vote and could vote to approve it as soon as Wednesday. "The majority party has to raise the votes to raise the debt limit, and the Democrats know that, and they're willing to do it. ... We think that's a perfectly appropriate way to handle this," said Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the No. 2 Senate Republican. Thune added that he believed they would be able to get 10 GOP votes for the deal. Asked if he expected 10 Republicans would support the deal, Sen. Roy Blunt (Mo.), the No. 4 Senate Republican, said, "I would expect that's what happens. It happened last time and maybe more." GOP leaders view the agreement as a win for them because it's expedited, which is what they want, and forces Democrats to raise the debt ceiling on their own to a specific number. A quicker process also lets them spend more time attacking Democrats over their climate and social spending plan. An aide predicted that a "vast majority" of Republicans would be supportive of the agreement, though they acknowledged that it didn't mean that many would vote for the agreement setting up the debt ceiling vote on the Senate floor. That vote, according to aides, could happen in the Senate as soon as this week. The deal comes after weeks of negotiations over the debt ceiling between McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). Republicans had offered to speed up Democrats' passage of the debt ceiling on their own under reconciliation, a budget process, but aides argued that the deal rolled out on Tuesday accomplishes the same goal. Senate leaders had discussed tying the debt hike to a sweeping defense bill but dropped that plan amid pushback from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Senate Republicans.

Where things stand on the debt ceiling — and a filibuster exception – The Senate is finally doing away with the filibuster — for one vote.In order to address an impasse over the debt ceiling, Democratic and Republican leaders have agreed to a measure that raises the debt limit with just 51 votes, instead of the 60 that are required if a bill is filibustered. The House already passed the measure on Tuesday night, and the Senate is set to consider it later this week.Stopping a minority of senators from blocking the bill’s passage is an interesting resolution to a longstanding disagreement the two parties have had regarding how to deal with the debt ceiling (a legal cap to how much the US can borrow). Every year to two years, lawmakers have to either raise or suspend the debt ceiling to make sure that the US is able to cover its spending, a vote Republicans are currently using as a messaging opportunity.For months, Republicans have tried to push Democrats into raising the debt ceiling on their own in order to paint Democrats as big spenders. Democrats, meanwhile, have argued that this vote should be bipartisan, because both parties are responsible for the accrued debt. Additionally, Democrats have shied away from raising the debt limit unilaterally via budget reconciliation — a process that allows a measure to pass the Senate with a simple majority — because of how arduous and time-consuming that approach would likely be.The contours of this argument have stayed consistent since October. But a rapidly approaching debt ceiling deadline of December 15 (per estimates from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen), and fears regarding the fallout from a potential default, have led Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to find a joint solution this time around. Though each leader wanted to force the other party into submission, neither wanted to risk the potentially catastrophic economic effects that going past this deadline could have.

How Schumer and McConnell got the debt deal done -After receiving a rare request from Mitch McConnell to discuss the debt limit in November, Chuck Schumer dialed Nancy Pelosi but received no answer. Given the urgency, he rushed to their joint press conference and waited for her to finish speaking. After she concluded, the two Democratic leaders walked to Schumer's car and he laid out a possible solution to a monthslong partisan standoff on the debt limit. McConnell wanted to give Democrats a quick vote to raise the debt ceiling on their own and finally take the debt limit imbroglio off the table, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Schumer and McConnell first met before the Thanksgiving break and then finalized their deal on Dec. 1, just off the Senate floor in the ornate Marble Room. For one time only, they agreed, the Senate Democrats could raise the debt limit on their own, with a little Republican help to get there. It was some of the most involved face-to-face negotiating the two Senate leaders conducted all year — and it surprised almost everyone. “It’s so unlike him. I’m really glad he did it,” Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said of McConnell. “What’s the old saying? One flowering rose doesn’t make a spring. But I’ll take what we can get.” McConnell “feels like in this circumstance at least, that they both have been working in good faith,” agreed Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.). “The fact that they have been talking should be perceived by most to be a positive development.” The debt deal comes on the heels of agreements between the Senate leaders to fund the government, complete a defense bill, pass a new infrastructure law and collaborate on a competitiveness bill. And it could mark the high point of Schumer and McConnell’s relationship. That says as much about the two pugnacious leaders as it does about the state of the Senate, which now sits leagues away from the days when the two party leaders met regularly.

Senate clears expedited debt limit process, Medicare cuts delay - The Senate broke a logjam over the statutory debt limit Thursday, clearing a measure that would allow Democrats to increase the nation’s borrowing capacity on their own without any Republican assistance necessary. On a 59-35 vote, the Senate sent President Joe Biden a bill granting a one-time exemption to Senate rules so that a debt ceiling increase can go straight to final passage on a simple majority vote, rather than first having to clear a 60-vote procedural hurdle. Passage of the fast-track process legislation effectively ends weeks of partisan brinkmanship over whether and how to raise the statutory debt limit. Without congressional relief, the government may be unable to meet all its financial obligations after Dec. 15, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has warned. Democrats have yet to release the bill that will actually raise the debt limit, though Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi hope to clear that measure before Wednesday to meet Yellen's deadline. The legislation heading to the White House also would delay Medicare cuts that would otherwise be triggered Jan. 1, including across-the-board reductions to provider reimbursements as well as separate cuts to physician and laboratory services payments. It would temporarily waive statutory pay-as-you-go rules that would require steeper Medicare cuts next year as well as major reductions in farm price supports and a host of other federal benefits. Final passage came after a critical procedural vote, in which 14 Republicans joined all Democrats on a cloture motion to limit debate. That bipartisan cooperation — on a deal brokered by Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — cleared the way for Democrats to be able to increase the debt limit on their own and avoid a fiscal crisis. Schumer thanked McConnell for the agreement in floor remarks Thursday, saying their talks were “fruitful, candid, productive.” “The proposal I worked on with Leader McConnell will allow Democrats to do precisely what we’ve been seeking to do for months… provide a simple majority vote to fix the debt ceiling without having to resort to a convoluted, lengthy and ultimately risky process,” Schumer said.

U.S. Senate advances bill to raise debt limit, avert catastrophic default (Reuters) – The U.S. Congress’ months-long drive to raise the federal government’s $28.9 trillion debt limit, and avert an unprecedented default, took a step forward on Thursday as the Senate advanced the first of two bills needed for the hike. Fourteen Republicans joined the chamber’s 48 Democrats and the two independents who caucus with them in voting to end debate on the first bill, spurning right-wing demands that they boycott any measure leading to an increase in the Treasury Department’s borrowing authority. “I’m optimistic that after today’s vote we will be on a glide path to avoid a catastrophic default,” the chamber’s top Democrat, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, said in a speech before the 64-36 vote on a measure he negotiated with Republican counterpart Mitch McConnell to speed passage. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has urged Congress to raise the limit before Dec. 15. Republicans for months have been maneuvering to try to force Democrats to raise the debt limit on their own, seeking to link the move to President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.75 trillion “Build Back Better” domestic spending bill. Democrats note that the legislation is needed to finance substantial debt incurred during Donald Trump’s administration, when Republicans willingly jacked up Washington’s credit card bill by about $7.85 trillion, partly through sweeping tax cuts and spending to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. The Senate could vote as early as Thursday evening to pass the first of two pieces of legislation needed to raise the borrowing limit to a still-under-negotiation amount intended to cover Washington’s expenses through the 2022 midterm elections that will determine control of Congress.

Senate passes bill that starts process of raising debt limit - On Thursday evening, the Senate passed a bill that will start the process of raising the debt limit with only Democrats' votes.Having gained the necessary support to clear the filibuster earlier Thursday afternoon, the Senate-passes legislation will permit a one-time change to Senate rules and allow Democrats to raise the federal borrowing limit by a simple majority.Despite only requiring 51 votes, 10 Republicans voted with all Democrats to pass the rule, resulting in a 59-35 margin.On Tuesday, congressional leaders announced a deal that would avert a default of the nation's credit by allowing Democrats to raise the debt ceiling in the Senate without any Republican support, and the House approved the measure along party lines in a late-night 222-212 vote. The bill will now head to President Joe Biden's desk. Once Biden signs the rule change, Democrats in both chambers of Congress will need to pass a second piece of legislation that actually raises the debt limit. Biden must sign that second bill before Dec. 15 to avert catastrophic default, according to the Treasury Department.

Joe Biden signs bill to fast-track process to raise govt's debt limit -- US President Joe Biden has signed a bill to fast-track the process to raise the federal government's debt limit and avoid a potential default."The nation's full faith and credit has always been a shared responsibility. The bipartisan support of this legislation shows that it is still possible for leaders to work across the aisle and deliver," Biden said on the Twitter.The bill, which was approved by both chambers of the Congress earlier this week, will set up a process for Democrats to raise the debt limit in a second bill by a simple majority vote, Xinhua news agency reported.Final votes on the second debt-limit bill are expected next week, and the new legislation could cover Washington's borrowing through the 2022 midterm elections, according to local media.The US Treasury Department currently has no room to borrow under its standard operating procedures after it has reached the debt limit of $28.9 trillion.US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has urged Congress to raise the debt limit before December 15. "I cannot overstate how critical it is that Congress address this issue. America must pay its bills on time and in full. If we do not, we will eviscerate our current recovery," Yellen told lawmakers last week.Failure to pay the nation's bills on time could send immediate ripple effects throughout the global economy, particularly during a time of economic recovery and heightened uncertainty over a new Covid-19 variant, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington DC-based think tank. The debt limit, commonly called the debt ceiling, is the total amount of money that theUS government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including social security and medicare benefits, interest on the national debt, and other payments.

How Congress Loots the Treasury for the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex - Medea Benjamin -Despite a disagreement over some amendments in the Senate, the United States Congress is poised to pass a $778 billion military budget bill for 2022. As they have been doing year after year, our elected officials are preparing to hand the lion’s share – over 65% – of federal discretionary spending to the U.S. war machine, even as they wring their hands over spending a mere quarter of that amount on the Build Back Better Act.The U.S. military’s incredible record of systematic failure—most recently its final trouncing by the Taliban after twenty years of death, destruction and lies in Afghanistan—cries out for a top-to-bottom review of its dominant role in U.S. foreign policy and a radical reassessment of its proper place in Congress’s budget priorities.Instead, year after year, members of Congress hand over the largest share of our nation’s resources to this corrupt institution, with minimal scrutiny and no apparent fear of accountability when it comes to their own reelection. Members of Congress still see it as a “safe” political call to carelessly whip out their rubber-stamps and vote for however many hundreds of billions in funding Pentagon and arms industry lobbyists have persuaded the Armed Services Committees they should cough up.Let’s make no mistake about this: Congress’s choice to keep investing in a massive, ineffective and absurdly expensive war machine has nothing to do with “national security” as most people understand it, or “defense” as the dictionary defines it.U.S. society does face critical threats to our security, including the climate crisis, systemic racism, erosion of voting rights, gun violence, grave inequalities and the corporate hijacking of political power. But one problem we fortunately do not have is the threat of attack or invasion by a rampant global aggressor or, in fact, by any other country at all.Maintaining a war machine that outspends the 12 or 13 next largest militaries in the world combined actually makes us less safe, as each new administration inherits the delusion that the United States’ overwhelmingly destructive military power can, and therefore should, be used to confront any perceived challenge to U.S. interests anywhere in the world—even when there is clearly no military solution and when many of the underlying problems were caused by past misapplications of U.S. military power in the first place.While the international challenges we face in this century require a genuine commitment to international cooperation and diplomacy, Congress allocates only $58 billion, less than 10 percent of the Pentagon budget, to the diplomatic corps of our government: the State Department. Even worse, both Democratic and Republican administrations keep filling top diplomatic posts with officials indoctrinated and steeped in policies of war and coercion, with scant experience and meager skills in the peaceful diplomacy we so desperately need.This only perpetuates a failed foreign policy based on false choices between economic sanctions that UN officials have compared to medieval sieges, coups that destabilize countries and regions for decades, and wars and bombing campaigns that kill millions of people and leave cities in rubble, like Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria.

Defense bill provision seeks to hold Biden accountable on Afghanistan -- The House version 2022 National Defense Authorization Act includes a provision designed to hold the Biden administration accountable for the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan earlier this year."President Biden’s reckless Afghanistan evacuation allowed the Taliban to release thousands of known terrorists from prisons in Afghanistan," Rep. August Pfluger, R-Texas, who introduced the amendment to the legislation, said in a statement. "As of now, we have no idea where they went and what risks they pose to American citizens. My resolution requires DHS to conduct a full terror threat assessment on each prisoner to protect the safety and security of our homeland. It is one step in holding President Biden and his administration accountable for their failures in Afghanistan."The amendment requires the Secretary of Defense, along with the Director of National Intelligence, and the Department of Homeland Security, to conduct a threat assessment posed to the United States by prisoners released from two detention facilities in Afghanistan that housed ISIS and al-Qaida fighters.The secretary of defense will have 60 days following the NDAA being signed into law to compile the report, which will then be due annually until 2026.The amendment also calls for an assessment of the "quantity and type" of American military equipment that was abandoned in Afghanistan and whether there is a plan in place to "leave, recover, or destroy" the equipment.The annual NDAA passed the House Tuesday, with the lower chamber's version of the bill authorizing $770 billion in funding for the Department of Defense.

Biden administration eying evacuation options for US citizens in Ukraine if Russia invades: report -The Biden administration is considering how to potentially evacuate U.S. citizens from Ukraine should an invasion from Russia prompt security concerns in the country. Senior State Department official Victoria Nuland conducted a "gloomy" briefing for senators about the situation on Monday night, according to CNN. A person familiar with the briefing said that Nuland noted that the U.S. had limited options for how to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine entirely; however, she also discussed the harsh sanctions that the Biden administration could impose on Moscow in the event of an invasion. At this time, the administration did not see a need to evacuate Americans, CNN reported. Russia's buildup of approximately 90,000 troops along its border with Ukraine has prompted concerns from Ukraine and its Western allies. On Tuesday, the White House said that, during a two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Biden "voiced the deep concerns" about Russia's forces near Ukraine and "made clear that the U.S. and our Allies would respond with strong economic and other measures in the event of military escalation." On Monday, CIA Director William Burns acknowledged that Russia's significant military presence along Ukraine's border “could act in a very sweeping way.” Burns, however, also said that U.S. intelligence agencies have yet to obtain decisive evidence regarding if Moscow had made a decision about potentially invading Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin has also sought “reliable and long-term security guarantees” that NATO would not expand its presence near Russia's borders as the country claims it has concerns about Ukraine's own presence of troops in the eastern part of the country.

Biden threatens economic sanctions and a repositioning of NATO troops in meeting with Putin - At a two-hour video conference call with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, US President Joe Biden threatened Russia with “strong sanctions” and the repositioning of NATO troops in case of a war between Russia and Ukraine. It was the second meeting of both presidents this year following a summit in June, at which Biden appeared trying to ease tensions with Russia as part of his administration’s efforts to focus its war preparations on China. Since then, however, military tensions between NATO and Russia have grown significantly, even as the US has escalated its war drive against China. Over the past month, the US has sent several warships to the Black Sea in what Putin has described as a “serious challenge” to Russia’s security interests. The EU and NATO have also provoked a geopolitical crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border, where thousands of refugees from the Middle East have been trapped. While the regime of Alexander Lukashenko has begun deporting many of these refugees, the US and EU imposed new sanctions on Belarus last week which are expected to deal a serious blow to the country’s economy. Despite simmering tensions with the Kremlin, Minsk is the only state remaining in Eastern Europe that maintains extremely close economic and military ties with Russia. These provocations have come after three decades, in which NATO has continuously pushed closer to Russia’s borders and staged two coups in Ukraine in 2004 and 2014, to bring pro-Western governments to power. While Putin has described any further military buildup of Ukraine by the alliance as a “red line,” Biden has explicitly rejected acknowledging such “red lines” by the Kremlin. The meeting was preceded by numerous threats against Russia from Biden, as well as Germany’s new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, and a drum beat of war propaganda in the American and European press. The Washington Post and New York Times published reports this weekend alleging that Russia was planning an “invasion” of Ukraine with some 175,000 troops. As in all such war propaganda in previous years, these reports were based on leaks from anonymous intelligence officials.

Biden Agreed To Putin's Request For Future Talks On Halting NATO Eastward Expansion: Kremlin -- The Kremlin indicated there were no "breakthroughs" in the morning's Biden-Putin virtual meeting, which lasted two hours, and focused on the brewing Ukraine crisis - which we noted is perhaps to a large degree a wholly manufactured crisis. However, there were "constructive" strides made. Crucially the two leaders agreed to initiate lower-level government-to-government talks on Russia's "red lines" - according to the Kremlin. The Russian side is also saying Biden agreed to discuss Putin's proposal for legal guarantees preventing any further NATO expansion eastward. Here's a further breakdown of official Kremlin states following the call, according to Bloomberg:

• Leaders agreed to hold lower-level discussions soon on Russia’s "red lines": no further expansion of NATO alliance or threatening weapons toward Russia; talks will also cover Putin’s proposal for binding security guarantees on that issue
• "Putin said you Americans are worried by our battalions on Russian territory thousands of kilometers from the U.S., while we have genuine concerns about our security, Russia’s security."
• US agreed to let Russia inspect diplomatic facilities in US confiscated in recent years
• Putin proposed that both sides "zero out" restrictions on diplomatic operations imposed in recent years
• Putin told Biden that Russian forces on its own territory aren’t a threat to anyone
• "Our president said sanctions aren’t a new thing, they’ve been used for a while and they don’t give any positive effect either for the U.S. or Russia" Leaders didn’t discuss the possibility of an in-person meeting

US announces boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics - Less than a month after US President Joe Biden held his first formal summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the US has announced a provocative diplomatic boycott of the Winter Olympics, due to open in Beijing in February.White House press secretary Jen Psaki told a press briefing that the US would send no official delegation to the Beijing Olympics. That would register its opposition to China’s “ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and other human rights abuses.” American athletes will compete nevertheless.The decision follows an increasingly hysterical campaign in the US media and political establishment, clamouring for a boycott on the basis of lies about China’s “genocide” of the ethnic Uyghur population in China’s western province of Xinjiang.The Biden administration has offered no substantive evidence of widespread human rights abuses in Xinjiang, let alone that Beijing is engaged in “atrocities” and “genocide.” The use of the term “genocide,” without a shred of proof, degrades its meaning and the very real crimes of the past, such as the Nazi holocaust.Allegations of widespread surveillance, detentions and infringement of religious freedom rest on the tendentious claims of a handful of far-right, anti-communist academics, along with the uncorroborated stories of Uyghur exiles connected to organisations such as the US-funded World Uyghur Congress and the American Uyghur Association.In the dying days of the Trump administration, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo first accused China of genocide in Xinjiang. That lie was rapidly taken up by the Biden administration as part of its vilification of China. The propaganda campaign is one element of the aggressive US strategy of confronting and undermining China on all fronts over the past decade, including a military build-up throughout the Indo-Pacific in preparation for war.

Big week for reconciliation as Dems look to finish changes - Senate Democrats are looking to finish changes to the budget reconciliation bill in the coming days before moving it to the floor as soon as next week, if Majority Leader Chuck Schumer gets his way. But the New York Democrat will have to deal with persistent concerns from Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)— including on climate portions of the $1.7 trillion bill.And Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), who has said she supports the budget reconciliation effort but has also expressed concerns throughout the process, has said she doesn’t think it will be done by Christmas.When asked about a compromise industry fee to reduce releases of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, Manchin remained unconvinced last week, even as boosters of the provisions keep insisting it will survive.Manchin said, “We have methane, and we have regulations. And I’ve been talking to [EPA Administrator] Michael Regan on the regulations that they’re trying to come to fruition and, you know, are you looking for money? Or are you looking at fixing things? So I think that’s what it’s about."Manchin, however, isn’t the only moderate who could potentially force the methane fee out of the package. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) told reporters last week he has “concerns about approaching this from the tax angle” (Energywire, Dec. 2).Still, the Montana Democrat has enthusiastically backed much of the bill’s $550 billion in climate spending, and he predicted Manchin would ultimately come around, too.“I think it’s all about R&D, and I think you could get Joe Manchin in on that,” Tester said.Another major point of contention is a new tax credit, worth up to $4,500, for electric vehicles built in the U.S. with union support. Michigan lawmakers are championing the proposal to boost domestic manufacturers.Manchin, who has a nonunionized Toyota manufacturing plant in West Virginia, has deep concerns with the plan, which would also penalize Tesla Inc.. Elon Musk, who runs that company, has said his workers don’t want to unionize.Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), a top supporter of the credit, said last week she is in continued talks with Manchin, but it’s not clear what a compromise could look like.The point, Stabenow said, is to avoid rewarding foreign companies that have union labor at home and “fight collective bargaining” in the United States.

 Pelosi aiming to pass $2T social spending bill before Christmas - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) predicted Wednesday that both chambers of Congress will pass the $2 trillion expansion of social benefits and climate programs — a massive package at the heart of President Biden's domestic agenda — before Christmas. "We feel very confident about what is in Build Back Better," she told reporters in the Capitol. "We know what some possibilities are, and it would be my hope that we would have this bill done before the Christmas vacation." That same bullish timetable is also being trumpeted across the Capitol by Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who is scrambling to rally his party's centrist holdouts behind the enormous spending bill, which features a host of Democratic economic and climate priorities. But it's an ambitious deadline, largely because of the continued reluctance of Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), a moderate Democrat from a deep-red state, to back the package — at least publicly. Speaking at a Wall Street Journal event Tuesday, Manchin amplified his previous concerns about the bill's potential effects on rising inflation, warning that "the unknown we are facing today is much greater than ... this aspiration bill." Manchin's resistance has led many Democrats to predict that party leaders will be forced to kick the debate into next year. Further complicating the Christmas deadline has been a packed calendar in the Senate, where Schumer is racing to pass a defense authorization bill and raise the debt ceiling to prevent an unprecedented government default. The House on Tuesday night sent those bills over to the upper chamber, but GOP resistance, combined with the Senate's arcane rules, could push both debates into next week. Still, Pelosi is already set to keep the House in session beyond Friday, when the chamber is scheduled to start the recess, in order to adopt a Senate-passed debt ceiling increase. And on Wednesday she teased the idea that she'd keep lawmakers in Washington even longer to finalize Build Back Better before Dec. 25. Asked if Democratic leaders are prepared to call the House back to Washington in the event that the Senate is able to pass the package, she suggested that no one is leaving."Where are they going that we're calling them back?" she asked. "Hopefully we'll have this done before then." Although the Build Back Better Act lacks the same urgency as the defense and debt ceiling bills, it contains certain provisions that would extend soon-to-expire benefits, including a popular child tax credit that was adopted in March as part of Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package.

Senate revs up work on $2 trillion spending proposal, aiming to complete vote on Biden-backed bill before Christmas - Senate Democrats are aiming to vote and approve a roughly $2 trillion package to overhaul the nation’s health-care, education, climate, immigration and tax laws before Christmas, hoping to muscle through a jam-packed schedule to deliver the remaining piece of President Biden’s economic agenda. Writing to lawmakers on Monday, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) affirmed the aggressive timeline, warning that there are “more long days and nights” on the horizon as the chamber races to resolve a wide array of fiscal and economic issues before the end of the year. “This is arduous work. It takes time, precision and a lot of pieces moving together,” he later said on the Senate floor. Yet the path to passage for Democrats’ signature spending plan appears especially precarious, as party lawmakers continue to contend with political dissent among their own ranks. A pivotal swing vote, Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), has yet to offer his endorsement of the legislation, even after months of wrangling with the White House.On Monday, Manchin signaled again that he harbors “concerns” with the size and scope of the bill. And he affirmed his trepidations about advancing so much new spending at a time when inflation continues to raise the price of goods, which Manchin said reflected an economy that is “vulnerable” to other disruptions.“We’re talking about major changes in our tax code, we’re talking about [a] major overhaul of our social [programs], and we’re talking about a tremendous overhaul of our climate positions that we have,” the senator said.The $2 trillion proposal, known as the Build Back Better Act, aims to expand Medicare coverage, invest new sums to combat climate change, authorize universal prekindergarten and provide new aid to low-income families, all financed through tax hikes targeting rich Americans and corporations. House Democrats adopted the bill in November, teeing it up for the Senate, where party lawmakers at times have been divided over its size and scope.From here, the Senate still must rejigger critical parts of the bill to ensure it is compatible with the process known as reconciliation. The legislative maneuver allows Democrats to approve the legislation with 51 votes, rather than the usual 60, sidestepping a guaranteed Republican filibuster in the narrowly divided chamber.But reconciliation carries its own set of potential headaches, as Democrats must ensure every element of their sprawling tax-and-spending proposal directly implicates the federal budget — or else it is at risk of being stripped out of the measure entirely. Anticipating those issues, lawmakers have been meeting behind the scenes with the chamber’s parliamentarian, a customary process that Schumer said is expected to continue “this week and next.”In the meantime, Democrats have not settled on some of the finer details of the bill itself. Manchin continues to battle with lawmakers over the inclusion of a program to provide paid family and medical leave to millions of Americans. And other party lawmakers are locked in a still-unresolved dispute over a state-and-local tax proposal that some liberals see as too generous to the wealthy.The wrangling over the bill only reflects the vast work ahead of Congress just 25 days before the end of the year. Democrats and Republicans still have to approve a bill that would authorize nearly $778 billion in defense spending, for example, which has been mired in bitter disputes around U.S. policy toward China and Russia.

Dems' spending bill taps small banks for climate justice - President Biden has promised to steer money toward front-line communities as the United States makes historic investments in climate resilience and mitigation. But the process of actually getting the money to these families and small businesses presents its own challenges. A $29 billion provision tucked inside the massive reconciliation bill passed by the House in November aims to help Biden meet that goal.It would do so by establishing a "Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund" that for the first time would infuse green investments into a vast network of local financiers — some of which have decadeslong connections with the very communities that are already, and disproportionately, feeling the effects of rising temperatures.Among them are Community Development Financial Institutions, or CDFIs. The roughly 1,200 banks, credit unions, loan funds and more are designated by the Treasury Department as such because they share one key purpose: boosting access to capital in low-income communities and communities of color, where traditional lenders often avoid doing business.Historically, most of those organizations have focused on issues such as affordable housing, small business development and poverty — rather than energy efficiency or climate change. But as temperatures rise, that balance is shifting. And sources say there’s a newfound recognition in Washington and beyond that community-focused lenders present an enormous opportunity to deploy green investments where they’re needed most. So much so that a key measure in Biden’s "Build Back Better Act" was tweaked to help them do itWhat’s still up for debate, however, is how the money should get to those institutions — and who should be tapped to make it happen.

Billions for Climate Protection Fuel New Debate: Who Deserves It Most - The New York Times - The $1 trillion infrastructure law funds programs that tend to favor wealthy, white communities — a test for Biden’s pledge to defend the most vulnerable against climate change.— The new infrastructure law signed by President Biden includes almost $50 billion to protect communities against climate change, the largest such investment in United States history and a recognition that the effects of warming are outpacingAmerica’s ability to cope.Mr. Biden has insisted that at least 40 percent of the benefits of federal climate spending will reach underserved places, which tend to be low income, rural, communities of color, or some combination of the three.But historically, it is wealthier, white communities — with both high property values and the resources to apply to competitive programs — that receive the bulk of federal grants. And policy experts say it’s unclear whether, and how quickly, federal bureaucracy can level the playing field.“These tensions have to be squarely faced,” said Xavier de Souza Briggs, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who volunteered on Mr. Biden’s transition team. The White House “is trying to transform some of these deep structures of government that have needed attention for a long, long time,” he said.Some local governments have tried to distribute money for climate resilience in a more equitable manner. But the political backlash can be fierce.After Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, voters approved a $2.5 billion bond to fund more than 500 flood-control projects around the county. Officials decided to prioritize those projects based in part on the “social vulnerability” of the communities they protected — an index that includes the percentage of residents who are minorities.Residents in wealthier neighborhoods, along with their elected representatives, complained the policy would push their communities to the back of the line.The new climate provisions in the infrastructure bill inject billions of dollars into competitive grant programs. These are pots of money that towns, cities and counties can access only by submitting applications, which federal agencies then rank, with funds going to applicants with the highest scores.That system is designed to ensure that funding goes to the most worthwhile projects.But it also hinges on something outside the control of the federal government: The ability of local officials to use sophisticated tools and resources to write successful applications. The result is a process that has widened the gap between rich communities and their less affluent counterparts, experts say.

Neither side thrilled with immigration reforms in Build Back Better bill - – Buried in the $1.9 trillion Build Back Better Plan is $100 billion for immigration reform, money that critics say has no business being in the bill and that migration advocates say does not go nearly far enough.The immigration provisions, which were included in the bill House approved Nov. 19 on a mostly party-line vote, are certain to become a sticking point if and when the Senate takes up the full Build Back Better bill, one of the Biden administration’s key initiatives.The money would be used for everything from expedited processing of immigration paperwork, expansion of visa availability and access to work permits for as many as 7 million undocumented immigrants currently in the U.S., among other provisions.But it does not include a pathway to citizenship for those immigrants, which advocates see as a slap that does not address the larger issue – the need for comprehensive immigration reform.“The Build Back Better Plan, the one that passed in the House, it’s not a path to citizenship, and it just feels like a temporary bandage,” said Vicki Gaubeca, policy and communication strategist for the Southern Border Communities Coalition.“So it’s a short-term fix, but really, I think, ideally, we need to get immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship for all 11 million people who are here without work authorization,” Gaubeca said.That was echoed by Jose Patiño, the director of education and external affairs at Aliento, an Arizona-based immigrant advocacy group. “It’s been since 1986, over 35 years since we had an immigration reform,” Patiño said, referring to the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. That bill, signed into law by President Ronald Reagan, led to citizenship for more than 2 million undocumented immigrants who were in the country at the time.But Ira Mehlman, media director for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, said the U.S. has no ethical obligation of “rewarding” people who have broken the law by coming here illegally. “Nobody promised people who came into the country illegally that they were going to get some kind of benefit, you know, including a path toward citizenship,” Mehlman said.

AOC, progressives demand Senate Dem leaders overrule parliamentarian and include amnesty in spending bill ---Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and some fellow progressive lawmakers joined a group of protesters outside the U.S. Capitol Tuesday to demand that Senate Democratic leaders ignore their chamber's parliamentarian and include a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the reconciliation spending bill."The Senate needs to step up, override the parliamentarian, okay. The parliamentarian is not elected. It is not an elected position and the parliamentarian has been overridden and dismissed in the past," Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., said to a gathering of about 150 activists."We will not surrender our power to an unelected parliamentarian," Ocasio-Cortez said. "Our demand is for the Senate to override the parliamentarian, include a full path to citizenship, and send it back to the House."Democrats in both the House and Senate see their reconciliation spending bill as a unique opportunity to pass immigration reform. Ocasio-Cortez called it a "ventana de oportunidad" -- Spanish for "window of opportunity."This is because the filibuster threshold on a reconciliation bill is lowered from 60 to 51. Therefore, if Senate Democrats stay united they could completely overhaul the immigration system without any GOP votes. But the bills passed under reconciliation are also subject to the "Byrd Rule," which bars provisions that do not have a fiscal impact from being included in the bill. Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough rules which parts of the bill fall under that rule and must be removed. Senate Democratic leaders so far are willing to abide by MacDonough's rulings even as she's nixed multiple immigration proposals from reconciliation already.

Reconciliation bill would set transportation emission reduction targets - A measure in the House’s $2 trillion economic initiative would require states to cut greenhouse gas emissions, promising rewards for transportation departments that post reductions and “consequences” for those that don’t. To its supporters, the proposal — set forth in a few dozen lines in the mammoth budget bill — is an overdue acknowledgment that decisions about transportation infrastructure shape how much carbon people emit as they get around. But its opponents say it is unfair to single out transportation departments, while setting standards that could be unattainable in rural areas. Much of the attention on cutting emissions from the transportation sector — the nation’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases — has focused on the adoption of electric vehicles by investing in charging infrastructure and subsidizing battery-powered cars. The new measure goes beyond provisions in the infrastructure law for crafting emissions plans, siding with environmental advocates who argue the nation can’t battle a changing climate without also changing how Americans move around. Rep. Peter A. DeFazio (D-Ore.), chairman of the Transportation Committee, said the proposal is designed to motivate states to act, resurrecting an idea he unsuccessfully advanced as part of debate over the $1.2 trillion infrastructure law. “We’re going to give them very large incentives to actually make those meaningful targets and deliver on those targets,” DeFazio said. According to the proposal, states that cut emissions could tap a $1 billion pot of money and potentially receive other bonus funding from the federal government. The bill doesn’t spell out potential consequences for not reducing emissions, leaving the decision to federal transportation officials. Experts said they could include barriers to accessing highly prized grant funds.Environmentalists say the nation’s transition to electric vehicles probably won’t happen quickly enough to limit temperature rises unless Americans can be convinced to drive less. In a nation where vehicle infrastructure has been the priority, that would mean building new networks focused on walking, cycling and transit, advocates say.

'It's grotesque': Inside the Hill methane fight - Progressives set out to write a reconciliation bill that would scrap special tax treatment for fossil fuel companies. Instead, they might hand the oil and gas industry a new subsidy. Democrats struck a deal in October with Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Texas moderates to pair a methane fee with $775 million in grants, loans and rebates for oil and gas companies to monitor and reduce methane pollution, which accounts for 20 percent of all global emissions, according to EPA. It was a difficult pill for House progressives to swallow as they voted to advance their $1.7 trillion climate and social spending bill, and it’s still possible the methane program could drop out altogether. With the oil and gas sector still staunchly opposed, Manchin is now negotiating additional changes to the provision with Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Tom Carper (D-Del.) as the massive package moves through the Senate. “What’s happening here is pretty clear, and we’ve got to do something about it,” Carper told reporters this week. “And the question is, can we do something about it without doing great harm and damage to oil and gas companies who are willing to clean up their emissions?” While moderates believe a compromise is within reach that could have a massive impact on methane emissions, the process has shown the continued influence of the industry on Capitol Hill — and the power Manchin has had to shape Democrats’ climate policy over the objections of progressives. Democratic committee leaders never could garner serious support for tossing out the array of special tax treatments enjoyed by oil and gas companies worth tens of billions of dollars every year. At the same time, industry and moderates have thrown up roadblocks to virtually every attempt to write policy that would punitively force reductions in fossil fuel emissions, including the methane fee and the proposed Clean Electricity Performance Program, which was struck from the bill weeks ago at Manchin’s request. “It’s grotesque to be throwing hundreds of millions of dollars at methane polluters to get them to do the right thing. I mean, that is the opposite of how I would like to approach this,” said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.). “You just have to step back and realize that the paramount concern is reducing methane pollution,” Huffman added. “And in this political climate right now, this is the only way we can do it.”

U.S. Chamber Urges Congress to Pause on Reconciliation Bill as Inflation Rises to 39-Year High The following statement can be attributed to Neil Bradley, Executive Vice President and Chief Policy Officer, U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “With prices rising 6.8% over the past year, squeezing budgets for families and small businesses alike, it is time for Congress to hit pause on the reconciliation bill and not add any more fuel to the inflationary fire. “The already enacted American Rescue Plan will result in over $525 billion in additional spending and tax cuts in FY 2022, per the Congressional Budget Office. The House-passed reconciliation bill would add another $150 billion in transfer payments and tax cuts as well as additional spending. All of this is a recipe for more inflation throughout the next year. Rather than ‘building back better’– the reconciliation bill will just be bringing back bad inflation.”

CBO: Fully extended reconciliation bill could cost $3 trillion - Roll Call -- The Democratic tax and spending package to expand the social safety net and combat climate change would increase federal deficits by $3 trillion over 10 years if most programs were made permanent, the Congressional Budget Office said Friday. Republicans seized on the new cost estimate to argue that the Democrats’ reconciliation measure is unaffordable and would only accelerate rising inflation. “I am urging the Democratic party to stop the madness,” said South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, the Senate Budget Committee’s ranking Republican, who requested the cost estimate from the nonpartisan budget agency along with his House counterpart, Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo. Graham and Smith, using CBO figures, estimated the gross cost of the package would come to $4.9 trillion over a decade, assuming all programs were made permanent without additional revenue or savings. That price tag would be more than double the roughly $2.2 trillion estimate of costs for new spending and tax breaks in the House-passed bill, before offsets. The Democratic reconciliation bill, as passed by the House, would increase deficits by $231 billion over 10 years, after accounting for spending for increased tax enforcement and interest costs on the debt, the nonpartisan budget agency said. To keep costs down, Democrats called for many of their programs to be temporary — particularly the child tax credit, which would expire in a year. And some programs would take years to get started. But if those programs were made permanent, the CBO said, costs would soar, increasing deficits in the first decade by more than $3 trillion, under a set of assumptions requested by Republican lawmakers. Much of the cost increase comes from extending the expanded child tax credit, which provides most families with up to $3,600 per child annually, which households can opt to receive in monthly installments. As passed by the House, the one-year expanded credit would cost $185 billion. But if extended over the decade, as Democrats say they want to do eventually, the cost jumps to nearly $1.6 trillion. Similarly, child care subsidies and universal preschool programs, which would expire after 2027 in the House bill, would cost $381 billion over 10 years. But if they are made permanent, the cost jumps to $752 billion, the CBO said. “Nobody believes these programs were going to end,” Graham said at a news conference he held to call attention to the CBO report. “They will never go away if you leave it up to the Democratic Party.” The estimate from the nonpartisan budget agency came on the same day the Labor Department reported that the consumer price index rose by 6.8 percent over the 12 months ending in November, the highest increase since June 1982. “It is unthinkable that Senate Democrats would try to respond to this inflation report by ramming through another massive socialist spending package in a matter of days,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a statement Friday. Democrats have denied that their reconciliation bill would spur inflation, saying the programs in it are fully paid for with tax increases on corporations and upper-income households, along with increased tax enforcement and prescription drug cost savings. And they said it would actually reduce deficits by $2 trillion in the second decade since many programs would expire but the tax increases and drug savings would remain in place. They have acknowledged wanting to extend the life of many programs, particularly the expanded child tax credit, but have said the costs of any future spending would be offset with new revenue or savings, as President Joe Biden has promised.

Murkowski: Latest Numbers Show Dangers of Reconciliation Spending Spree - U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) today released the following statement after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released reports showing the harm being caused by the Biden administration’s energy and social spending policies. BLS reported that inflation is at a 39-year high, while CBO projected that the ‘Build Back Better’ agenda would add $3 trillion to the deficit over a single decade if made permanent.“These reports make it abundantly clear that President Biden is on the wrong track,” Murkowski said. “Instead of completely blowing the roof off of federal spending, the Biden administration should set aside this partisan social spending agenda and focus on allowing the energy industry to produce more here at home. That would help families and businesses by reducing inflation and bringing prices back to more reasonable levels. It’s time to stop pumping air into the balloon instead of seeing how much more it can take before it explodes.”BLS reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased by 0.8 percent in November 2021. The inflation index has risen by 6.8 percent over the past year – the largest annual increase since 1982 – and by an annualized rate of 8.9 percent over the past three months. Energy commodity prices have risen by 57.5 percent over the past 12 months, contributing significantly to economy-wide inflation, as the administration has refused to approve major projects and called for punitive policies that will further reduce domestic output.CBO reported that extending provisions within the Build Back Better Act – the partisan budget reconciliation package passed by the House and now pending in the Senate – would increase the deficit by $3.0 trillion over a decade if extended for that duration. Setting aside timing gimmicks within the current bill that hide its true costs, CBO found the package would cost a staggering $4.9 trillion over a 10-year period.

Major utilities agree to stop sharing data with ICE - A national group of utility companies has stopped allowing data it collects on millions of Americans to be shared with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The National Consumer Telecom & Utilities Exchange has previously given sensitive information from cable, phone and power bills to the credit bureau Equifax, which packaged that and sold it to databases used by government agencies, including ICE. That chain of private data, including names, addresses and social security numbers, from utilities to the government and law enforcement was outlined in reporting by the Washington Post earlier this year. Since then, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) has pushed the exchange to end the sale of the data. The Oregon lawmaker revealed that the NCTUE had instructed Equifax in October to stop selling its credit header data in a letter sent to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Wednesday. Data received before October is still being sold, Wyden noted in the letter. A spokesperson for the NCTUE confirmed the policy change. “Recently, NCTUE worked with its members to end the practice of licensing members’ header data to third parties,” they told The Hill in a statement. “This practice is now being followed.” Wednesday’s letter asks the CFPB to investigate the sale of similar data by credit agencies. “I'm happy to see that after my investigation, utility companies have stopped allowing Americans’ personal data to be sold to shady data brokers and then to the government,” Wyden wrote in a tweet. “But credit agencies are continuing to misuse and abuse Americans' data they receive from banks.” Immigrants rights groups praised the news of the utility companies cutting off sales to immigration enforcement, but cautioned that other sources of data still pose concern. “Cutting off this data pipeline from the source is a major development as part of our campaign to put an end to ICE’s use of tech surveillance to harm immigrants,” Jacinta Gonzalez, senior campaign director at Mijente, said in a statement. “Now we need a guarantee that data brokers will not use utility data in any of the products or services, that they will erase all past data as well as stop collecting utility data in the future,” she added. Albert Fox Cahn, executive director of the group Surveillance Technology Oversight Project, called for more action to “dismantle the data broker industry.” “No one should have to choose between the essentials of modern life and keeping their families safe,” he added in a statement. Misunderstood: The Huawei Story SPONSORED CONTENT Misunderstood: The

Social Security COLA Calculations May Get Changed to CPI-E as Part of the Reform Bill. What Does it Mean for Retirees? - Social Security benefits are adjusted for inflation – the Cost of Living Adjustments or COLAs – based on the “Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers” (CPI-W), released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. By this measure, inflation was 6.9% in October. Alas, the COLA for benefits in the year 2022 was based on the third-quarter average CPI-W, when inflation was still lower. And so the COLA for 2022 will only be 5.9%, nevertheless the highest since 1982.As part of the efforts of reforming Social Security, there are now proposals in Congress – including a Bill by Rep. Al Lawson (D-FL), that include provisions to raise revenues – mostly focused on raising the Social Security contribution cap – and provisions to “improve” benefits, including by switching the COLA calculation from CPI-W to CPI Elderly, or CPI-E.CPI-E is designed to reflect the purchasing habits of people 62 years and older. The weights of the items in the basket are adjusted to reflect the typical purchasing habits of the elderly. The biggest factor in the difference is housing costs (“shelter”). It accounts for 36.8% of the weight in CPI-E but only for 32.5% in CPI-W. Housing costs have been soaring in reality, but the CPI has been slow in picking them up. But that has now started, and CPI for housing costs have started to rise and will continue to rise in 2022, and this will accelerate CPI-E more than CPI-W in 2022.The second largest factor in the difference is medical care, where the elderly spend a lot more. And there are other major differences where the elderly spend relatively more.In the other direction, where the elderly spend less, and where weights in the CPI-E are lower than in CPI-W, are gasoline (no more daily commutes, thank god), vehicle purchases, education, and the like.The table below shows the major categories, accounting for about 73% of total CPI-W and 75% of CPI-E: The differing weights produce a different inflation reading, and proponents of CPI-E say that it produces a higher inflation reading, which would produce higher COLAs. But this year, CPI-E is going massively in the wrong direction and the COLA for 2022 would get crushed. The CPI-E for October was 5.7% (red), while the CPI-W was 6.9% (green): And the COLA under CPI-E for 2022 would be 4.8%, based on the average of CPI-E in Q3, compared to the actual COLA of 5.9%. COLA calculations would be based on the average CPI-E readings in Q3 of every year. So I calculated COLAs based on CPI-E going back 22 years to 2001 (2000 Q3 CPI-E readings). Over the entire time, COLAs based on CPI-E would have averaged 2.4%, while actual COLAs averaged 2.3%.

New U.S. travel restrictions beginning Monday --Beginning Monday, travelers heading to the U.S. will be required to show evidence of a negative COVID-19 within one day of boarding their flight instead of three days prior. Also, Biden will extend the federal rule requiring passengers on planes, trains and buses to wear face masks through March 18. It was scheduled to expire in mid-January. The Biden administration’s moves come after the White House announced a ban on travel to the U.S. by foreign nationals who have been to South Africa or seven other African countries within the previous 14 days. That travel ban does not apply to U.S. citizens and permanent residents, and it’s possible the ban could be lifted soon. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the restrictions “travel apartheid,” and Dr. Anthony Fauci said U.S. officials “feel very badly about the hardship that has been put on not only on South Africa but the other African countries.” “Hopefully we’ll be able to lift that ban in a quite reasonable period of time,” Fauci said.

The omicron variant is another excuse for government meddling - President Joe Biden announced a series of COVID-19 protocols on Thursday to combat the new omicron variant. The protocols will do little to promote health, but that’s not their intent anyway. Instead, these regulations condition Americans to tolerate continued governmental intrusions in our lives as they chip away at our freedoms on the false promise of safety. Biden had banned travel from South Africa, where the omicron variant was first detected, and seven other southern African countries (remember when such bans were racist?) prior to the measures announced Thursday. The newly announced requirements include extending the federal mask mandate on public transport, including airplanes, until mid-March and requiring international travelers to the United States, including vaccinated U.S. citizens, to show proof of a negative COVID-19 test taken a day before departure. These measures will not prevent the new variant from spreading through the United States. On Monday the president himself admitted that “[T]ravel restrictions can slow the speed of omicron, it cannot prevent it. But here's what it does: It gives us time. It gives us time to take more actions, to move quicker, to make sure people understand you have to get your vaccine." Really? That’s about as believable as “15 days to flatten the curve” 21 months later. How does extending a mask mandate until mid-March buy more time? The existing mask mandate was not set to expire until Jan. 18. The first case of the omicron variant was already detected in the United States by the time of Biden’s announcements. If a mask mandate on airplanes could slow the spread, the existing mandate would give six additional weeks to “take more actions.” Promoting vaccinations is a major theme of the actions Biden wants to take. However, his change in testing requirements undermines the promotion of vaccination. Previously, unvaccinated U.S. citizens had to receive a negative COVID-19 test the day before flights to the United States, while vaccinated citizens could test up to 72 hours prior to departure. Now all citizens, regardless of vaccination status, have to test a day before departure. I just returned from two international trips. I was by myself on the first, but I was traveling with my not-yet-fully-vaccinated child on the second. It’s more of a hassle to get tested the day before departure than when you have a few days to fit it into your schedule. Taking away that flexibility for the vaccinated will cause fewer people, on the margin, to see a net benefit in getting vaccinated. I know the expectation of easier travel factored into my own decision to get vaccinated. These latest policies are not about slowing the spread of the omicron variant in the United States. They are about extending the power of politicians and health bureaucrats to make arbitrary dictates into our lives and infringe our freedoms.

The Biden Administration had better come up with a ‘Plan B’ - Coronavirus dashboard for December 7: since further mass vaccination could only happen at gunpoint, the Biden Administration had better come up with a ‘Plan B, says New Deal democrat.There are still distortions in the 7 day average data, as States did data dumps of deaths and new cases throughout last week, after not reporting over the long Thanksgiving holiday. That should finally disappear over the next few days. But since the same sort of Thanksgiving distortions occurred one year ago, it’s useful to take a YoY look at the data, which the below graph shows by US Census Region plus nationwide: The South and West regions have less than half as many cases as they did one year ago right after the Thanksgiving weekend, while the Northeast and Midwest have between 80% to 90% of the case they did one year ago. This is particularly interesting since the South, of all the regions, has the lowest vaccination rate. It partially suggests the importance of weather, and partially recent outbreaks rushing through the susceptible part of the population. A close-up of the last 8 weeks shows that the waves in the Northeast and Midwest started building near the end of October. Since the Delta wave from trough to peak in the South and West took about 2 months (similar to what happened in India, the UK, and now in the EU), this may mean that, except for the effect of Christmas gatherings, the peak in the colder regions is only a few weeks away: Additionally, if we average the most recent 7 day average, with the 7 day average one week ago, and compare that with the 7 day average 14 days ago, we probably get closer to a true picture of the pandemic. And there, the news is better. In the South, West, and even the Midwest, the average of the past 2 weeks is about the same as the 7 day average 2 weeks ago. Only in the Northeast has there been an unambiguous increase. But now, some pessimistic news. Vaccinations among adults have slowed to a crawl. Here is the graph of full vaccinations per capita for the entire US population: 40% of the entire US population was fully vaccinated on May 16. 50% was fully vaccinated on July 22.60% was fully vaccinated on December 4. It took 67 days to go from 40% to 50%. Even worse, some of those new vaccinations were for teens and a few for children under age 12. When we confine the data to only US adults, here’s what we get (note: no graph; data is from my “Weekly Indicators” compilations from the last 6 months): 50% of all US adults were fully vaccinated by May 30. 60% were fully vaccinated by July 30. Two more months later, by October 1, only 66.6% were fully vaccinated. 70% of all US adults were finally fully vaccinated by December 3. In other words, the pace of vaccinations fell by 50% between late spring and the onset of winter – despite the Delta wave occurring in late summer. Needless to say, this takes the prospect of beating Covid via vaccination alone in the US completely off the table. And, as far as I can tell, the Biden Administration has no other plan. It has refused to enact mandatory vaccination requirements for air and train travel. Yesterday Jen Psaki actually sneered at the idea of mailing test kits to everybody (which has in fact been done both in the UK and Singapore). Rapid testing at pharmacies for free – available in many other Western countries – is a figment of the imagination here. Seroprevalence studies appear to have been largely suspended. Even the publication of infection statistics by vaccination vs. non-vaccination status by the CDC has never been implemented. Since mass vaccination of the remaining US population could only happen essentially at gunpoint, the Biden Administration had better come up with a decent “Plan B” and fast.

Fauci recommends families require proof of vaccination for guests during the holidays - Before you invite your neighbors or grandma to your holiday dinner this year, Dr. Anthony Fauci is suggesting Americans require proof of vaccination from their guests. Don’t feel bad about asking Uncle Joey to see his papers before he can partake in your Feast of the Seven Fishes. “You can enjoy, as we have traditionally over the years, dinners and gatherings within the home with people who are vaccinated…People should, if they invite people over their home, essentially ask and maybe require that people show evidence that they are vaccinated.” While you can be assured that all of your holiday guests are fully vaccinated, Fauci says don’t feel bad about leaving your anti-vax in-laws out in the cold this holiday season.

Omicron Happy Talk in the US v. Toughening Restrictions in UK, Israel -- Yves Smith - It’s distressing to see optimistic pronouncements on Omicron when we are still far from knowing enough to make firm assessments, save its Delta-trouncing transmission rate. As we stressed in our first post, when the variant hadn’t yet been named (save as B.1.1.529), we warned that the precautionary principle meant that what might seem like an overreaction was the right response. Instead, US officials and the press are downplaying Omicron, with some success since as of a few days ago most have not even heard of it:Two messages have gotten widespread circulation in the US in the last couple of days, one that three doses of the Pfizer vaccine will provide protection versus Omicron and that Omicron is mild. We’ll address them in order. The first tidbit comes from Pfizer and needs to be taken with a fistful of salt. The second is at best dangerously premature and is based on anecdotal reports on a skewed sample. GM helpfully kneecapped the Pfizer spin-meistering yesterday morning:Regarding “VAX VAX VAX”, Pfizer just gave a press conference an hour ago where they loudly proclaimed that three doses of the wild type vaccine protect you against Omicron.This despite a third preprint from yesterday showing the exact opposite — most people with three doses of Pfizer were below the detection limit within 3 months.It looks like this has been immediately picked up by the media and is blasted from all directions…Yesterday four different neutralization studies came out, and we are going to only pay attention to and believe the most optimistic one that also happens to be the only one where there is a giant conflict of interest?And somehow the press has managed to memory-wipe the warning from Moderna’s CEO, that he didn’t expect the current vaccines to be terribly effective against Omicron. We pointed out that Moderna has been the most honest reported on the science front, not just among vaccine-makers but also including public health officials.While the plural of anecdote is not data, recall that Israel’s first three cases were in vaxxed individuals. Recall also that Israel is a Pfizer monoculture. The story on Israel’s first case shows that three Pfizer shots did not prevent infection or contagion. And the patient got a moderate, not a mild, case even with that.  The article reports that Maor spread Omicron to another person who was “also fully jabbed” which in context means three shots. The fact that infections are proportional to the vaccination level in the population means, in broad terms, the existing vaccines provide no protection against contracting Omicron. GM provided some additional intelligence, across several e-mails: As obvious from what is happening in Gauteng — most of those hospitalizations are reinfections, it’s just that the first infection was never recorded.Also, they still have at least 20% vaccinated in hospital and the vaccinated there are mostly not just vaccinated, they are vaccinated on top of an unrecorded previous infection. So I would not be placing too much hope on the ability of “hybrid immunity” and 3 doses to prevent a catastrophic situation — sure it won’t be as bad as it would have been in an entirely naive population, but some reduction of a horrifically large number leaves you with another still horrifically large number….When vaccine effectiveness waned to zero against infection after 25 weeks post-second dose here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.25.21262584v1 Vaccine effectiveness against severe disease went down to 71% but with a very wide intervalSo this is the absolute upper limit for Omicron. In any case, nobody will be able to give three doses to everyone on time – the thing is doubling every 3-4 days even in highly vaxxed populations. And there are already at least a million infections worldwide. At that rate most of humanity will have been infected well within the 100 days it will take to have an Omicron vaccine (let alone distribute it), and also at most 10-15% of people will get whatever benefit the third doses provide given how fast third doses are being given now outside Israel and a few other places. So it’s either lockdown or everyone catches it.

Second Senate Democrat to back vote against Biden vaccine mandate - Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.), a centrist Democrat from a state that voted heavily in favor of former President Trump, is planning to vote for a Republican resolution to nullify President Biden’s vaccine mandate for large employers. Tester is the second Senate Democrat to say he will support overturning Biden’s employer vaccine mandate under the Congressional Review Act (CRA). Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said last week that he would do so as well. The Senate is expected to vote on the issue as soon as Wednesday, and it will pass with the support of Manchin and Tester, as every single Republican senator is planning to vote for the resolution. “I’m not crazy about mandates,” Tester told a reporter for NBC News on Tuesday. A spokesman for Tester confirmed that his boss is “inclined to vote for the CRA resolution” sponsored by his Republican colleagues. Manchin announced his position last week after the Senate voted along party lines to defeat an amendment sponsored by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) to prohibit federal funding for the implementation of Biden’s vaccine mandate. “I do not support any government vaccine mandate on private businesses. That’s why I have cosponsored and will strongly support a bill to overturn the federal government vaccine mandate for private businesses,” Manchin said in a statement. Manchin and Tester voted against the Lee amendment because it was attached to a stopgap funding measure to keep the federal government operating until February.

Tester To Join Manchin In Striking Down OSHA Vaccine Mandate -Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) has announced that he will join Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and all 50 Senate Republicans to strike down President Joe Biden’s private sector vaccine mandate. “I’m not crazy about mandates,” Tester said on Tuesday, though he added that he supports mandates aimed specifically at health care workers and military servicemen. Tester, a moderate Democrat in the upper chamber, is the second Democrat to announce that he will join Republicans in striking down the mandate using a 1990s oversight law. Sen. Joe Manchin announced his decision on Dec. 3, saying that he would support Republicans in their effort to strike down the private sector mandate. Manchin explained the decision in a statement, “I have personally had both vaccine doses and a booster shot and I continue to urge every West Virginian to get vaccinated themselves.” Still, the senator emphasized his opposition to any effort to impose vaccination on private sector employers and employees. “Let me be clear: I do not support any government vaccine mandate on private businesses,” said Manchin. “That’s why I have cosponsored and will strongly support a bill to overturn the federal government vaccine mandate for private businesses.” “I have long said we should incentivize, not penalize, private employers whose responsibility it is to protect their employees from COVID-19,” Manchin said.

White House: Biden would veto GOP resolution to nix vaccine mandate - President Biden would veto a Republican resolution to nix the vaccine-or-test mandate for businesses with 100 or more employees if it made it to his desk, the White House said on Tuesday. Republican senators are poised to force a vote this week to nix the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s rule after they failed to block funding for the mandate last week in the government funding bill. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the White House is hopeful that the Senate will push back on the “anti-vaccine and -testing crowd” and confirmed Biden's intention to veto the resolution. “We certainly hope the Senate, Congress, will stand up to the anti-vaccine and -testing crowd, and we're going to continue to work to implement these. If it comes to the president's desk, he will veto it,” she told reporters. “We've got a new variant and cases are rising. President's been clear. We'll use every tool to protect the American people, and we hope others will join us in that effort.” Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Jon Tester (Mont.) have said they would back a vote against the mandate, a challenge that is supported by all 50 Republican senators. The support from Manchin and Tester gives Senate Republicans enough votes to pass the resolution, but it would still need to pass the Democratic-controlled House before making it to Biden’s desk. Democrats in the House are not expected to bring the measure to the floor, but GOP supporters could use a discharge petition to try to force a vote. That would involve winning the support for the measure from a majority of House

50 percent back Biden vaccine mandate for companies: survey -Fifty percent of voters back President Biden’s vaccine mandate for large private companies, according to a Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday. The poll also found 47 percent of voters opposed the measure. Biden's order requires all private companies with more than 100 employees mandate their workers receive a coronavirus vaccine or be tested regularly. It was slated to go into effect Jan. 4 but has been put on a hold by a federal court in response to a number of challenges. Local and state mandates requiring first responders, like police officers and firefighters, to get the coronavirus vaccine enjoy slightly more support, with 55 percent in favor of and 44 percent opposed to the measures, the poll found. Vaccine mandates in schools also generated mixed opinions among voters in the poll, with mandates for older students more popular than for younger children. A majority of voters at 51 percent supported school vaccine mandates for children older than 12, with 45 percent against the measure. For children ages five to 11, voters were evenly split with 48 percent in support and 48 percent opposed to a school coronavirus vaccine mandate. The Pfizer coronavirus vaccine is the only one currently approved in the U.S. for children, with the vaccine for those as young as five only recently on the market.

Amtrak to temporarily cut some service over U.S. COVID-19 vaccine rules (Reuters) – U.S. passenger railroad Amtrak told a U.S. House of Representatives panel on Thursday it expects to be forced to temporarily cut some service in January because of a COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Amtrak President Stephen Gardner told a House Transportation subcommittee that roughly 95% of its 17,000 employees have been fully vaccinated ahead of a Jan. 4 deadline. “We anticipate proactively needing to temporarily reduce some train frequencies across our network in January to avoid staffing-related cancellations, with our plan to fully restore all frequencies by March or as soon as we have qualified employees available,” he said. Gardner said in written testimony he expects the reductions to be in long-distance services “because of the relatively small crew bases at intermediate points along multi-day long-distance routes where conductors and engineers report to work.” He noted that many engineers, conductors and on-board service employees retired or left Amtrak and it temporarily halted hiring due to funding uncertainty. Without additional employee vaccinations Gardner said Amtrak is “currently determining what service reductions will be necessary and intend to communicate them publicly by next week.” An inspector general report released on Thursday said Amtrak plans a big boost in hiring but faces challenges. The report found Amtrak’s Human Resources Department “does not have sufficient leadership or staff to effectively recruit, screen, hire, and onboard new employees, which will likely hinder the company’s plans to add 2,500 to 3,500 new employees” by late 2022. Amtrak said in comments that it agreed with the report’s recommendations and pledged specific actions by October 2022, including “reviewing executive compensation and incentives.”

Whitmer says Biden vaccine mandate 'a problem for all of us' - Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) reportedly told business leaders that President Biden’s coronavirus vaccine mandate was “a problem for all of us” when asked about the possibility of worker shortages increasing because of the requirement. Whitmer made the comment on Monday during a meeting with business leaders in ​​Montcalm County, where she said she understood their concerns about the mandate, local outlet the Daily News reported. One Michigan business owner raised the potential problem of labor shortages as a result of the vaccine requirement, which will exacerbate staffing issues businesses are already facing. Whitmer sympathized with that concern. “We’re an employer too, the state of Michigan is. I know if that mandate happens, we’re going to lose state employees. That’s why I haven’t proposed a mandate at the state level. Some states have. We have not. We’re waiting to see what happens in court,” Whitmer said in response to concerns about job losses from the mandate. “But we have a lot of the same concerns that you just voiced, and it’s going to be a problem for all of us,” Whitmer added. Under Biden's vaccine mandate, any business with more than 100 employees must begin requiring that workers either get a COVID-19 vaccine or undergo regular testing for the virus by Jan. 4. The mandate has been halted in federal court after multiple lawsuits were filed following its announcement. Whitmer has been quiet on the mandate since the president announced it and has avoided implementing a vaccine mandate at the state level, the Detroit Free Press reported.. Early in the pandemic, the governor took aggressive action to curb the spread of COVID-19 in Michigan, implementing and extending a months-long stay-at-home order that she referred to as "one of the nation's more conservative." She has also been a vocal proponent of vaccination and in recent months has encouraged adults in her state to get booster shots and has signed an executive order aimed at expediting the inoculation of Michigan's children.

 Judge halts Biden vaccine mandate for federal contractors nationwide -A federal judge in Georgia on Tuesday temporarily halted the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate for federal contractors across the country. The ruling by U.S. District Judge R. Stan Baker, an appointee of former President Trump, is the latest in a series of legal setbacks for President Biden as his administration seeks to blunt the effects of a global pandemic that has killed more than 788,000 people in the U.S. “The Court acknowledges the tragic toll that the COVID-19 pandemic has wrought throughout the nation and the globe,” Baker wrote in a 28-page ruling. “However, even in times of crisis this Court must preserve the rule of law and ensure that all branches of government act within the bounds of their constitutionally granted authorities.” Baker, whose order blocks the mandate while the case plays out in court, said the challengers were likely to prevail on their claim that Biden exceeded his authority with the public health measure. Federal contractors were facing a Jan. 18 deadline to be fully vaccinated. Late last month, a Kentucky-based federal judge issued a narrower ruling that blocked the federal contractor mandate in Kentucky, Ohio and Tennessee. Tuesday’s ruling effectively extended the freeze nationwide. Federal courts have presented a major obstacle to the Biden administration’s pandemic response, particularly when presided over by Republican-appointed judges. Biden’s vaccine rules for private businesses, health care workers and federal contractors have all been tied up in court challenges from Republican officials.members.

 Senate votes, symbolically, to dismantle Biden vaccine mandate. --The Senate on Wednesday voted narrowly to roll back President Biden’s vaccine and testing mandate for large private-sector employers, taking mostly symbolic action as Republicans escalate their protest of the administration’s push to immunize Americans against a deadly pandemic.Two centrist Democrats — Senators Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana — joined all 50 Republicans in voting 52-48 to pass a bill to overturn the regulation, which has already been blocked in the courts. The House is not expected to take up the measure, and administration officials said Mr. Biden would veto it should it reach his desk.For the Republicans who forced the action, it was an opportunity to paint the administration’s efforts to increase vaccinations as federal overreach. It was also an unusual successful vote for the minority party.“The federal government, elites in Washington, cannot micromanage citizens’ personal choices without a legitimate basis in the law and the Constitution,” said Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader who has been an outspoken proponent of coronavirus vaccines. “And that goes double for presidents going far beyond the bounds of their office and their authority.”A majority of Democrats denounced the Republican effort as one to undercut the inoculation of Americans with vaccines that have proved to be safe and effective in stemming the spread of the coronavirus. Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, said that “taking tools out of the toolbox is just plain dumb.”The vote is likely to further politicize the pandemic response, particularly as Republican leaders have struggled to quell vaccine misinformation and skepticism in their ranks make clear they opposed the mandates, not the vaccines. Republicans, who conceded that without veto-proof majorities they would be unable to overturn the rule, said they would weaponize the mandate as further evidence of what they call the administration’s heavy-handed approach to governance.

Presidential Commission on the Supreme Court Throws Ball Back to Biden -The Presidential Commission on the Supreme Court of the United States, created by President Joe Biden by executive order in April 2021, unanimously adopted its final report, which it published yesterday.And as it was designed to do, the panel took no position on the vexing issue of endorsing any specific reform – via “court packing”, term limits, rotation, or any other mechanism. The report instead laid out arguments for and against various reform proposals. According to the Wall Street Journal in Commission Approves Report on Supreme Court Amid Partisan Differences.“The report is so measured in tone that it would make an excellent basis for classroom discussion, which is a mixed compliment,” said University of Texas law professor Sanford Levinson. “Its obvious concern with being relatively impartial means that it is unlikely to generate any genuine political movement.”A combination of bad luck as to when Supreme Court vacancies have occurred, as well as the hapless management of Supreme Court nominations, e.g. the Merrick Garland debacle, and the failure to press Ruth Bader Ginsburg to retire at a time when Democrats were in charge of Oval Office and the Senate, resulted in the court’s current lop-sided 6-3 conservative majority.The panel’s membership, comprised of former judges, practicing lawyers, and scholars, skewed 6-1 in what counts as a progressive direction in U.S. legal circles. Nonetheless, the final report failed to endorse any court-packing scheme. To have done so, some said, might have provided Biden with political cover to attempt to recast the Supreme Court’s membership in the run-up to the 2022 mid-term elections. The far more prevalent majority view is that for Biden to do so would be political suicide in what already looks to be a fraught year for Democrats.Concerns over the Supreme Court’s membership has increased as the Court last week heard oral argument on a case challenging Mississippi’s restrictions on abortion. If, as expected, the Court overturns or drastically circumscribes the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade framework establishing access to abortion as a constitutional right, a majority of states are poised to impose their own further restrictions on such procedures. According to NPR in ‘Trigger laws’ are abortion bans ready to go if ‘Roe v. Wade’ is overturned: Instead of endorsing any Court expansion scheme, the commission’s report produced a scrupulous balanced assessment of arguments for and against, in a 28 page chapter. According to the WSJ article:“There has never been so comprehensive and careful a study of ways to reform the Supreme Court; the history and legality of various reforms; and the pluses and minuses of each,” said a liberal commissioner, Harvard law professor Laurence Tribe.“But in voting to submit this report to the president, I am not casting a vote of confidence in the court’s basic legitimacy. I no longer have that confidence,” he said, citing “the dubious way some justices got there” and “the anti-democratic, anti-egalitarian direction of its decisions about matters like voting rights, gerrymandering, and the corrupting effects of dark money,” all areas where conservative views prevailed. Mr. Tribe said the process had persuaded him to endorse expanding the court, a position he previously had viewed skeptically.

 Concerned about Omicron variant, Wall St banks encourage COVID booster shots (Reuters) – Several Wall Street firms are increasing efforts to ensure staff get coronavirus booster shots, after Jefferies Financial Group Inc reported a surge in COVID-19 cases and as countries and industries grapple with how to respond to the spread of the Omicron variant. Daily COVID-19 cases in New York City have surged in recent days and hospitalizations in the city are at their highest level since April, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). While the Delta variant is still dominant in the United States, Omicron has been detected in many U.S. states including New York. Most banks are strongly recommending staff get booster shots, sources said. Deutsche Bank has made COVID-19 boosters available to staff at its new headquarters in Columbus Circle since early November, according to a source familiar with the matter. Wells Fargo & Co said on Wednesday it was providing all employees with four hours of paid leave to get the booster shot. JPMorgan Chase & Co and Bank of America Corp also provide employees with paid time off to receive vaccines and booster shots. U.S. private equity group KKR & Co Inc, headquartered in midtown Manhattan, also said on Thursday it was encouraging staff to obtain boosters. The firm sent notices to staff before Thanksgiving and after the Omicron variant was discovered, a spokeswoman said.

These Real Estate and Oil Tycoons Avoided Paying Taxes for Years — ProPublica --Here’s a tale of two Stephen Rosses.Real life Stephen Ross, who founded Related Companies, a global firm best known for developing the Time Warner Center and Hudson Yards in Manhattan, was a massive winner between 2008 and 2017. He became the second-wealthiest real estate titan in America, almost doubling his net worth over those years, according to Forbes Magazine’s annual list, by adding $3 billion to his fortune. His assets included a penthouse apartment overlooking Central Park and the Miami Dolphins football team.Then there’s the other Stephen Ross, the big loser. That’s the one depicted on his tax returns. Though the developer brought in some $1.5 billion in income from 2008 to 2017, he reported even more — nearly $2 billion — in losses. And because he reported negative income, he didn’t pay a nickel in federal income taxes over those 10 years. What enables this dual identity? The upside-down tax world of the ultrawealthy.ProPublica’s analysis of more than 15 years of secret tax data for thousands of the wealthiest Americans shows that Ross is one of a special breed.He is among a subset of the ultrarich who take advantage of owning businesses that generate enormous tax deductions that then flow through to their personal tax returns. Many of them are in commercial real estate or oil and gas, industries that have been granted unusual advantages in the American tax code, which allow the ultrawealthy to take tax losses even on profitable enterprises. Manhattan apartment towers that are soaring in value can be turned into sinkholes for tax purposes. A massively profitable natural gas pipeline company can churn out Texas-sized write-offs for its billionaire owner.By being able to generate losses — effectively, by being the biggest losers — these Americans are the most effective income-tax avoiders among the ultrawealthy, ProPublica’s analysis of tax data found. While ProPublica has shown that some of the country’s absolute wealthiest people, including Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Michael Bloomberg, occasionally sidestep federal income tax entirely, this group does it year in and year out.Take Silicon Valley real estate mogul Jay Paul, who hauled in $354 million between 2007 and 2018. According to Forbes, he vaulted into the ranks of the multibillionaires in those years. Yet Paul paid taxes in only one of those years, thanks to losses of over $700 million.Then there’s Texas wildcatter Trevor Rees-Jones, who built Chief Oil & Gas into a major natural gas producer over the past two decades. The multibillionaire reported a total of $1.4 billion in income from 2013 to 2018, but offset that with even greater losses. He paid no federal income taxes in four of those six years.None of the people mentioned in this article would discuss their taxes or tax-avoidance techniques with ProPublica. A spokesperson for Ross said, “Stephen Ross has always followed the tax law. His returns — which were illegally obtained and descriptions of which were released by ProPublica — are reflective of and in accordance with federal tax policy. It should terrify every American that their information is not safe with the government and that media will act illegally in disseminating it. We will have no further correspondence with you as we believe this is an illegal act.” (As ProPublica has explained, the organization believes its actions are legal and protected by the Constitution.) A spokesman for Rees-Jones declined to comment. Paul did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

Share of global wealth held by billionaires climbs during pandemic - Inequality across the world has worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the gap between the wealthy and the poor within countries continues to widen, according to the latest World Inequality Report released on Tuesday. The top 10 percent of the highest earners in the world now own 76 percent of all wealth, while the bottom 50 percent owns just 2 percent. That translates to an average purchasing power, or buying power for an individual, of $4,100 for the bottom half of the world, and $550,900 for the top earners. The data confirms a trend of global inequality that has only increased in recent decades. The top .01 percent, or 520,000 adults in the world, now owns 11 percent of all wealth, up from 7 percent in 1995. The billionaires in the world own 3.5 percent of all wealth, as compared to .5 percent in 1995, according to the report. "At the heart of this explosion is the extreme concentration of the economic power in the hands of a very small minority of the super-rich," the authors of the report wrote. "This report once again makes it clear that profound policy changes are needed for things to fall back in place." Inequality is the worst in the Middle East, Africa, Russia, Central Asia and Latin America — the top 10 percent of which all own more than 70 percent of the wealth. Europe has the shortest gap between the top earners and the bottom earners but still has a significant chasm between the two groups, with the lowest 50 percent holding around 2 percent of all wealth and the top 10 percent owning close to 60 percent. In the U.S., the wealth gap between the top earners and the lowest earners has leveled off. About 35 percent of the wealth is owned by the richest 10 percent in the country, and 2 percent of wealth is owned by the bottom 50 percent. One positive from the report is that the wealth gap between poor and rich countries has actually decreased. The top 10 percent in the wealthiest countries own 38 times more wealth than the bottom 50 percent in poorer nations — down from 53 times higher in 1980. Inequality across the U.S. has given rise to worker-focused and anti-establishment movements on both sides of the political spectrum, and contributed to the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union.

Nunes to resign from Congress, become CEO of Trump media firm - Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), a key Donald Trump ally who was poised to be the chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee if Republicans win back the House in 2022, said Monday he will resign at the end of this month to become CEO of the former president's new media and technology company. “Recently, I was presented with a new opportunity to fight for the most important issues I believe in. I’m writing to let you know I’ve decided to pursue this opportunity, and therefore I will be leaving the House of Representatives at the end of 2021,” Nunes told constituents. “Rest assured, I have not, by any means, given up our collective fight — I’ll just be pursuing it through other means,” he added. Nunes, 48, is slated to begin his new role in January as CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group or TMTG, which is billing itself as an alternative to Big Tech. Trump and conservatives have spent the past year railing against Silicon Valley social media and tech firms, which they accuse of engaging in censorship and cancel culture. “Congressman Devin Nunes is a fighter and a leader. He will make an excellent CEO of TMTG,” Trump said in a statement. “Devin understands that we must stop the liberal media and Big Tech from destroying the freedoms that make America great. America is ready for TRUTH Social and the end to censorship and political discrimination.” In the same news release from TMTG, Nunes said, “The time has come to reopen the Internet and allow for the free flow of ideas and expression without censorship. The United States of America made the dream of the Internet a reality and it will be an American company that restores the dream.” One GOP lawmaker reacted by saying, “I’m sure he will be making a lot of $$.” A 10-term congressman, Nunes became a lightning rod during the Trump years when he was serving as the House Intelligence Committee chairman. In April 2017, he was forced to recuse himself from his own panel’s investigation into Russia’s interference in the presidential election the year before for revealing classified information. Later, he would emerge as one of Trump’s chief defenders on Capitol Hill when Democrats launched impeachment proceedings against Trump for pressuring Ukraine to interfere in the 2020 elections. The Nunes news shocked many of his GOP colleagues, who had expected him to seek — and win — the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee gavel if Republicans take back the House in next year’s midterm elections. That gavel had been a career-long ambition, and he had unsuccessfully sought it years earlier.Nunes’s resignation means there will now be a wide-open race to be the top Republican on Ways and Means. Senior Republicans who could run include Reps. Vern Buchanan (Fla.), Adrian Smith (Neb.) and Jason Smith (Mo.), who is also contemplating a bid for an open Senate seat or the House Budget Committee gavel.

More voters would pick Trump over Biden if election were held today: poll --More voters would back former President Trump than President Biden in a hypothetical match-up if the 2024 election were held today, according to a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released exclusively to The Hill.Forty-eight percent of voters in the survey said they would back Trump, compared with 45 percent for Biden. Another 8 percent were unsure. The results were evenly split at 46 percent among women, while men backed Trump by a margin of 50 percent to 43 percent. Biden won urban voters by 20 percentage points and suburban voters by 4 percentage points, but Trump romped among rural voters by 33 percentage points.

Roger Stone to plead the Fifth in Jan. 6 investigation -An attorney for Roger Stone has informed the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol that his client will plead the Fifth. Stone’s lawyer, Grant J. Smith, confirmed to The Hill on Wednesday that he "sent a letter to the Select Committee on behalf of Mr. Stone advising them that he will be asserting his Fifth Amendment privilege in response to their subpoena." The letter was sent on Monday. In the letter, Smith said Stone "declines to be deposed or to produce documents." Smith referred The Hill to an article published by DJHJ media, which contained a copy of the letter. "I believe Mr. Stone provided the letter to this reporter as a link in this story," Smith said. Stone, a close Trump ally whose prison sentence was commuted by the then-president days before his term expired, was subpoenaed by the Jan. 6 committee on Nov. 22. Stone was slated to speak at rallies on Jan. 5 and Jan. 6 and reportedly had members of the far-right militia group the Oath Keepers work as his personal security that day. He was set to appear before the committee for a deposition on Dec. 17. He is now the third witness subpoenaed by the Jan. 6 committee to plead the Fifth. Former Department of Justice (DOJ) official Jeffrey Clarke and attorney John Eastman have both informed the committee of their intent to exercise their Fifth Amendment rights. Smith, in his letter to the committee, said the congressional panel’s request for documents is “overbroad, overreaching, and far too wide ranging to be deemed anything other than a fighting expedition.” He also said the committee “seeks an imprecise and undefined category of ‘documents and communications concerning’ a broad range of constitutionally protected political activity.” The attorney also asserted that producing the documents requested would require “the preparation of a detailed index and log describing the contents of the production, which in and of itself would be protected from disclosure by the U.S. Constitution.” Smith noted, however, that the letter informing the committee of Stone's intention to plead the Fifth "neither confirms nor denies the existence of any documents responsive to the subpoena." Smith also took issue with the committee’s intent to scrutinize the events leading up to the attack, writing that such a purpose “falsely implies that the First Amendment rights of freedom of speech and association and the right to petition the government for redress of grievances caused the illegal acts of January 6.” Additionally, the letter points to Stone’s testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) in 2017, writing that his “foregoing concerns” are heightened by that experience.

U.S. appeals court rejects Trump bid to withhold records on Capitol attack - (Reuters) -A U.S. appeals court on Thursday rejected a request by former President Donald Trump to withhold records from the House of Representatives probe of the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, saying he had provided “no basis” for his request. “Former President Trump has provided no basis for this court to override President Biden’s judgment,” a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit wrote. President Joe Biden had previously determined that the records, which belong to the executive branch, should not be subject to executive privilege and that turning them over to Congress was in the best interest of the nation. “Both branches agree that there is a unique legislative need for these documents and that they are directly relevant to the Committee’s inquiry into an attack on the legislative branch and its constitutional role in the peaceful transfer of power,” the court said. The ruling marks yet another blow to the Republican former president, who has waged an ongoing legal battle with the committee over access to documents and witnesses. The House Select Committee investigating the riot has asked the National Archives, the U.S. agency housing Trump’s White House records, to produce visitor logs, phone records and written communications between his advisers. The panel has said it needs the records to understand any role Trump may have played in fomenting the violence.

 Greene calls fellow Republican 'trash' of GOP conference -- Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) blasted Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) after Mace criticized Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) for an anti-Muslim remark Boebert made about Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). Mace "is the trash in the GOP Conference. Never attacked by Democrats or RINO’s (same thing) because she is not conservative, she’s pro-abort," Greene said in a tweet posted on Tuesday morning, using an acronym for "Republican in name only." Greene told Mace she "can back up off of" Boebert or "just go hang with your real gal pals, the Jihad Squad," a reference to a remark Boebert made earlier this month while criticizing Omar, a Muslim, on the House floor."Your out of your league," Greene added. Mace replied with a tweet of her own minutes later, beginning by correcting Greene's grammar. "And, while I’m correcting you, I’m a pro-life fiscal conservative who was attacked by the Left all weekend (as I often am) as I defied China while in Taiwan," Mace wrote. "What I’m not is a religious bigot (or racist). You might want to try that over there in your little 'league,'" she added.

See the bizarre list of banned words and phrases in Jeffrey Epstein's 'household manual' - Smile at all times, no direct eye contact, never say "yeah." Workers at Jeffrey Epstein's Florida home were informed on how to respond and act around Epstein and longtime girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwellwith a household manual. The manual, which includes directions like "do not address Mr Epstein, Ms Maxwell and their guests with your hands in your pockets," was handed out to all staff members of Epstein's Palm Beach, Florida, home. The manual was recently submitted as evidence in the ongoing trial of Maxwell. Federal prosecutors accused Maxwell of sex-trafficking girls with Epstein, sexually abusing them herself, and lying about her actions in a deposition. Her trial started on Monday. Maxwell has pleaded not guilty. Epstein, who was arrested in 2019 on charges of trafficking dozens of girls, killed himself in jail while awaiting trial. Epstein's longtime housekeeper, Juan Alessi, interpreted the strict household guidelines as "a kind of warning that I was supposed to be blind, deaf, and dumb," according to his testimony at Maxwell's trial on Thursday, Insider reported. "Remember that you see nothing, hear nothing, say nothing, except to answer any question directed toward you," Alessi read from the manual during his testimony.

 

 Biden's pick for bank watchdog pulls out after GOP accusations of communism -President Biden’s pick to lead a top bank regulator withdrew her nomination Tuesday after blistering attacks from Republicans and concerns among moderate Democrats. Saule Omarova, whom Biden nominated to lead the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), pulled herself from consideration in a letter Biden released Tuesday, calling her nomination “untenable.” “As a strong advocate for consumers and a staunch defender of the safety and soundness of our financial system, Saule would have brought invaluable insight and perspective to our important work on behalf of the American people,” Biden said in a statement. “But unfortunately, from the very beginning of her nomination, Saule was subjected to inappropriate personal attacks that were far beyond the pale,” Biden added. Omarova, a Cornell law professor born in the former Soviet Union, faced universal opposition from Republican senators. Though Omarova’s family was nearly eviscerated by the Stalin regime, several Republican senators either suggested or outright accused her of supporting communism. While most Democratic senators condemned attacks on Omarova’s heritage, several moderates expressed concerns about her proposals in legal papers to shift much of the consumer banking system into the federal government. No Democratic senator publicly opposed her nomination, but at least five reportedly told the White House they were unwilling to support her confirmation. During her confirmation hearing last month before the Senate Banking Committee, Omarova said those papers were part of a broader academic debate about banking innovation and not an agenda should she be confirmed. As comptroller of the currency, Omarova would have wielded substantial power over national banks but lacked the authority to make the changes outlined in several of her papers. Even so, moderate Democrats on the Banking panel appeared unconvinced, raising immediate doubts about her viability. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who supported Omarova’s confirmation, blasted the nominee's opponents in a Tuesday statement for waging a “relentless smear campaign reminiscent of red scare McCarthyism.”

Saule Omarova Withdraws as Biden’s Nominee to Head National Bank Regulator; Puzzling Questions Remain -- Yesterday, Cornell Law Professor, Saule Omarova, withdrew from her nomination to become the head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the regulator of national banks. Emily Flitter, reporting for the New York Times, said it was because Omarova had been “painted as a communist.” In terms of the full story on why Omarova had to withdraw, that is like pointing to a single droplet of rain as the cause of a hurricane.In October, the Vanderbilt Law Review published a 69-page paper by Omarova in which she made the following bizarre recommendations to reform the U.S. banking system:

• (1) Move all commercial bank deposits from commercial banks to so-called FedAccounts at the Federal Reserve;
• (2) Allow the Fed, in “extreme and rare circumstances, when the Fed is unable to control inflation by raising interest rates,” to confiscate deposits from these FedAccounts in order to tighten monetary policy;
• (3) Allow the most Wall Street-conflicted regional Fed bank in the country, the New York Fed, when there are “rises in market value at rates suggestive of a bubble trend,” such as with technology stocks today, to “short these securities, thereby putting downward pressure on their prices”;
• (4) Eliminate the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) that insures bank deposits in the U.S. and prevents panic runs on banks;
• (5) Consolidate all bank regulatory functions at the OCC – which Omarova was nominated to head.

By early November, Omarova was facing a new controversy when it was revealed thatshe had called the very industry that she had been nominated to supervise the “quintessential a**hole industry” in a 2019 Canadian feature documentary.It’s hard to imagine things going downhill from there – but they did.At 11:41 a.m. on November 18, as Omarova sat before the Senate Banking Committee for her confirmation hearing, Republican Senator Tom Cotton Tweeted the following: “Saule Omarova stole $214 (~$400 adjusted for inflation) from T.J. Maxx in 1995. She’s woefully unqualified to supervise the banking system.”It turns out that someone in President Biden’s inner circle had approved the nomination of Omarova, a person arrested for shoplifting when she was 28 years old, to head a key federal regulatory agency overseeing banks with a total of $14 trillion in assets. President Joe Biden is now three for three in failing to properly vet his nominees to oversee the crime factory on Wall Street. In April there was Alex Oh who had to resign over scandal after just six days on the job as the Director of Enforcement at the Securities and Exchange Commission. Then there is Kenneth Polite, Biden’s confirmed nominee to head the Criminal Division of the U.S. Department of Justice. In July we were the only financial news outlet to report the story of the multitude of red flags on Polite’s financial disclosure forms. Polite is still in his job. Like Alex Oh, Polite was a law partner at a law firm thatdefends Wall Street mega banks. Polite’s former law firm is Morgan, Lewis & Bochius, which has plenty of red flags itself. (See our report: Biden’s Crime Chief Had Screaming Red Flags on His Financial Disclosure Form; Senators Ignored Them.)There are plenty of questions that remain on why progressive Senators, including Sherrod Brown, the Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, continued their support of Omarova long after it was clear that she had been incompetently vetted for the post to which she was nominated.

 OCC warns of high corporate debt levels, commercial real estate risks - Elevated corporate debt, cybersecurity threats and the risk from chasing yield in a low-interest rate environment could undermine banks' efforts to jumpstart earnings as the pandemic continues, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said Monday. In a semiannual report on risks in the national banking system, the OCC noted that banks bounced back sharply from the pandemic in the first half of the year as credit conditions improved. But some banks may be accumulating risk too quickly with lower-quality loans, looser underwriting and failure to conduct sufficient due diligence of products and services, an OCC official said on a conference call with reporters.

 OCC offers specific ways for banks to reform overdraft programs - Months after launching a formal review of overdraft practices, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is providing more clarity about the types of changes it would like to see from banks. In a speech Wednesday, acting Comptroller Michael Hsu identified eight practices that he said promote consumer financial well-being, as well as greater income and wealth equity. Among the suggestions: Providing a grace period before charging an overdraft fee, making changes to posting practices and refraining from charging multiple overdraft fees in a single day. Hsu said that overdraft programs have morphed over the years into vehicles that promote inequality, but he praised the reforms that many banks have recently made.

Fee income, reserve releases among industry bright spots, FDIC says — Higher fee income, a modest bounce- back in margins and lower credit costs helped banks overcome rising expenses and other obstacles, according to a closer look at bank's third-quarter results issued Tuesday by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. U.S. banks brought in $69.5 billion in net income in the third quarter, slightly down from the prior quarter but up nearly 36% from the same period last year, according to the FDIC's latest Quarterly Banking Profile. Noninterest income rose 4.7% from the year-earlier period to $76 billion. Growth in interchange fee income and investment banking income were major contributors. More than 57% of all financial institutions reported higher noninterest income.

Partisan battle brewing over FDIC's bank merger policy - — A partisan battle erupted on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board Thursday when Democratic members said they had approved a review of bank merger policy without the consent of the agency's Trump-appointed chief. The unprecedented clash began with Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra and former FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg, who both sit on the board, announcing that the body had signed off on the review. "This marks the beginning of a careful review of the effectiveness of the existing regulatory framework in meeting the requirements of the Bank Merger Act," they said in a joint statement regarding a request for public comment. Chopra put out a separate statement asserting that "a bank’s ability to merge with or acquire another bank is a privilege, not a right."

Is FDIC jumping the gun in freeing banks from consent orders? - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has terminated several public enforcement actions before banks achieved full compliance, according to a new government watchdog report that is critical of the agency’s practices. A review of 10 consent orders that the FDIC ended between January 2017 and June 2019 — all in the anti-money laundering realm — found that four of the banks were released from the legally enforceable orders after achieving only partial compliance. The report’s authors said that the term “partial compliance” is not well defined by the FDIC, and could provide leeway to cover even small, insignificant progress. Under FDIC policy, the agency may terminate a formal consent order if the bank has partially met its provisions, as long as a new formal or informal action has been issued to address the outstanding matters. Unlike formal consent orders, informal enforcement actions are not legally enforceable, and they are not publicly disclosed.

Half of all global financial assets need tighter rules, BIS says - Investment activity that takes place outside the banking system requires a new, broad-based set of global regulations to tackle inherent instability, the Bank for International Settlements said. Covering about half of all global financial assets after a rapid expansion over the past decade, nonbank financial intermediaries such as asset managers, hedge funds and other investment vehicles are still not adequately protected against bank-run-like withdrawals of liquidity, according to Claudio Borio, chief economist at the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS. The “dash for cash” in the early days of the pandemic last year has refocused regulators’ minds on a long-standing weak-spot, as panicked investors wrenched more than $155 billion from so-called prime funds in less than two months, helping to trigger a seizure in the U.S. commercial paper market and global ructions in dollar funding. Central banks have warned that elevated asset prices, rising inflation and debt in many markets signal the potential for further turbulence.

JPMorgan, Citi among banks targeted in Qaddafi-looting subpoena -- JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and six other large banks may have information about billions of dollars looted from Libya by its former dictator Moammar Al Qaddafi, the Libya government said in a subpoena application. In a filing Thursday in Manhattan federal court, the Libyan Asset Recovery and Management Office said it believes that money stolen by Qaddafi, his family and associates was transferred through Bank of America, UBS Group, HSBC Holdings, Credit Suisse Group, Bank of New York Mellon and Deutsche Bank, along with Citi and JPMorgan. “LARMO currently estimates that at least tens of billions of dollars’ worth of assets belonging to the Libyan people were stolen by Qaddafi and his agents and remain missing,” it said in the filing, which sought permission to subpoena records from the banks.

Libor fix wins House support in drive to avert transition chaos - The U.S. House approved legislation designed to protect trillions of dollars of assets from chaos when the London interbank offered rate expires, in one of the final key steps aimed at guaranteeing an orderly transition from the discredited benchmark. By a vote of 415-9, House lawmakers on Wednesday backed provisions to switch the most troublesome contracts, including mortgages, business and student loans, to a replacement benchmark in an effort to prevent a flood of litigation when dollar Libor retires. The bill will now head to the Senate. Bankers, investors and regulators see such proposals as crucial to ensuring that a large swath of the U.S. financial system isn’t disrupted. The move follows similar legislation in New York state to protect Wall Street that passed in March, and a regulatory decision to extend key dollar Libors until mid-2023 to allow trillions of dollars of contracts to die off naturally.

Payments networks poised to spend big to fight e-commerce fraud - An explosion in fraud has accompanied the public’s accelerated adoption of e-commerce over the past year, and payments companies likely will have to respond by spending more on security. "In many cases where a [merchant] does something quickly, like a move online or digital, fraud prevention does not get prioritized," said Sudhir Jha, a senior vice president at Mastercard and head of Brighterion, a Mastercard artificial intelligence subsidiary. "That creates weak spots that the crooks can target." New research reports show a boost in the number and average value of fraud attempts. Research also predicts the cost of e-commerce fraud to the payments industry will more than double by 2025.

U.S. to crack down on cryptocurrency crimes to combat corruption - President Biden says his administration is focused on policing cryptocurrency crimes to combat corruption globally and is taking advantage of a newly formed Department of Justice task force, according to an anti-graft report released Monday. The White House is particularly focused on crimes committed by virtual currency exchanges, mixing and tumbling services — platforms that obscure owners and recipients in Bitcoin transactions — and bad actors who facilitate money laundering, according to the report from U.S. Strategy on Countering Corruption, which includes the State Department, Treasury and Justice Department. The Department of Justice task force, the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team, was announced in October and reports to Kenneth A. Polite Jr., assistant attorney general for the Criminal Division.

Crypto CEOs push back against calls for stablecoin crackdown - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra made a forceful plea to state attorneys general to team up with the bureau on enforcement actions or bring their own under federal law. Speaking Monday at the National Association of Attorneys General, Chopra said he is considering changes that would allow states to access the CFPB’s multimillion-dollar Civil Penalty Fund to direct more relief to consumers in state actions. State attorneys general often are the first line of defense in protecting consumers and they should be using the federal prohibition on “unfair, deceptive or abusive acts or practices,” known as UDAAP, when filing enforcement actions against bad actors, he said.

Hackers take $196 million from crypto exchange Bitmart, security firm says -Crypto trading platform Bitmart says it will use its own money to reimburse victims of a large-scale security breach, in which hackers took as much as $196 million.Bitmart claims hackers withdrew about $150 million in assets. However, blockchain security and data analytics firm Peckshield, which first publicized the hack, estimates that the loss is closer to $200 million. CNBC reached out to Bitmart to ask about the multimillion dollar discrepancy, but the exchange declined to comment on this point.Bitmart wrote in an official statement Monday morning that it had completed initial security checks and identified the affected assets. The exchange said the security breach was mainly caused by a stolen private key, which affected two of its hot wallets, but other assets were "safe and unharmed."The affected ethereum and binance smart chain "hot wallets" carried only a "small percentage" of the exchange's assets, according to the company. Cryptocurrency can be stored "hot," "cold," or some combination of the two. A hot wallet is connected to the internet and allows owners relatively easy access to their coins so that they can access and spend their crypto. The trade-off for convenience is potential exposure to bad actors.Peckshield was the first to notice the breach on Saturday, noting that one of Bitmart's addresses showed a steady outflow of tens of millions of dollars to an address which Etherscan referred to as the "Bitmart Hacker."Peckshield estimated that Bitmart lost around $100 million in various cryptocurrencies on the ethereum blockchain and another $96 million from coins on the binance smart chain. The hackers made off with a mix of more than 20 tokens, including binance coin, safemoon, and shiba inu.

Bitcoin Weekend Crash Provides a Hard Look at “Rat Poison Squared” - Pam Martens - Bitcoin was trading at over $57,000 on Friday. Over the next 24 hours it had plunged below $43,000. On some trading platforms, Bitcoin’s price was cut far below the $43,000 level. The Dow Jones news outlet, MarketWatch, reported that “NYDIG, a technology and financial services firm dedicated to bitcoin, said that the decline was even more severe for some offshore platforms such as Huobi, where bitcoin briefly touched a 24-hour nadir at $28,800 on Saturday.” This is hardly the first time this year that Bitcoin has put on a wild display of price swings. On May 19 Bitcoin removed any lingering doubts that it is a stable currency that could be used to pay for products or services. At that time the current month Bitcoin futures contract at the CME swung between a low of $30,250 to a high of $43,530 – a difference of $13,280 in one trading session. From its intraday high of $58,140 on Wednesday, May 12, to its close one week later on Wednesday, May 19, Bitcoin had lost 34 percent of its value. The current problem with Bitcoin is the same problem that all other highly-leveraged trading instruments are having in the new world of Fed tapering. But Bitcoin has an additional problem: credibility. Warren Buffet summed up Bitcoin like this in May 2018: Bitcoin is “probably rat poison squared.” Also in 2018, Bill Harris, the former CEO of Intuit and PayPal, wrote a detailed critique of Bitcoin for Vox under the headline: “Bitcoin is the greatest scam in history.” Harris explained: “In my opinion, it’s a colossal pump-and-dump scheme, the likes of which the world has never seen. In a pump-and-dump game, promoters ‘pump’ up the price of a security creating a speculative frenzy, then ‘dump’ some of their holdings at artificially high prices. And some cryptocurrencies are pure frauds. Ernst & Young estimates that 10 percent of the money raised for initial coin offerings has been stolen.” As if on cue, there was another crypto heist over the weekend, with hackers stealing somewhere between $150 million to $200 million from crypto platform BitMart. In July 2019, NYU Professor and economist Nouriel Roubini provided a scathing critique of Bitcoin in a Bloomberg News interview, stating: “Crypto currencies are not even currencies. They’re a joke…The price of Bitcoin has fallen in a week by how much – 30 percent. It goes up 20 percent one day, collapses the next. It is not a means of payment, nobody, not even this blockchain conference, accepts Bitcoin for paying for conference fees cause you can do only five transactions per second with Bitcoin. With the Visa system you can do 25,000 transactions per second…Crypto’s nonsense. It’s a failure. Nobody’s using it for any transactions. It’s trading one sh*tcoin for another sh*tcoin. That’s the entire trading or currency in the space where’s there’s price manipulation, spoofing, wash trading, pump and dumping, frontrunning. It’s just a big criminal scam and nothing else.” On June 30 of this year, the House Financial Services’ Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations held a hearing on the crypto mania that has engulfed U.S. financial markets. One of the witnesses testifying at the hearing was Alexis Goldstein, a Wall Street veteran and current Director of Financial Policy for the nonprofit group, the Open Markets Institute. Goldstein testified that some crypto exchanges “like FTX and Binance and many others” are allowing traders to use as much as 100 times to 1 leverage to buy cryptocurrencies. Goldstein was asked during the June 30 hearing if there was any transparency on which hedge funds held the largest positions in crypto and who their counterparties are. Goldstein responded that crypto is not currently reported on the 13F forms that hedge funds are required to file with the SEC, which list their ownership positions in stocks and bonds, so regulators are currently “totally in the dark.” Goldstein raised further concerns in her written testimony to the Subcommittee, writing as follows: “…Too Big To Fail banks are also a growing presence in the cryptocurrency market. Goldman Sachs plans to open a cryptocurrency trading desk, BNY Mellon allows its clients to hold Bitcoin as of February 19, Wells Fargo will offer professionally managed cryptocurrency funds for qualified investors. Morgan Stanley’s Europe Opportunity Fund reported owning 28,298 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, according to a June 28 filing. Venture Capital firms have already invested $17 billion into cryptocurrency firms so far in 2021, more than three times what they invested in all of 2020. In addition, the concentration of particular cryptocurrency assets into a small handful of addresses raise concerns about power concentrations. To take one example, there are several very large ‘whales’ in the Dogecoin cryptocurrency, including a single address that holds over 36.7 billion DOGE (or some 28% of total Dogecoin) worth more than $8 billion. As of February, the top 20 largest Dogecoin addresses held half of the cryptocurrency’s entire supply.”

Want to be a criminal in America? Stealing billions is your best bet to go scot-free In the United States, only certain types of theft are newsworthy.For example, on 14 June 2021, a reporter for KGO-TV in San Francisco tweeted a cellphone video of a man in Walgreens filling a garbage bag with stolen items and riding his bicycle out of the store. According to San Francisco’s crime database, the value of the merchandise stolen in the incident was between $200 and $950.According to an analysis by Fair, a media watchdog, this single incident generated 309 stories between 14 June and 12 July. A search by Popular Information reveals that, since 12 July, there have been dozens of additional stories mentioning the incident. The theft has been covered in a slew of major publications including the New York Times, USA Today and CNN.In most coverage, the video is presented as proof that there are no consequences for shoplifting in San Francisco. But the man in the video, Jean Lugo-Romero, was arrested about a week later and faces 15 charges, including “grand theft, second-degree burglary and shoplifting”. He was recently transferred to county jail where he is being held without bond.Just a few months earlier, in November 2020, Walgreens paid a $4.5m settlement to resolve a class-action lawsuit alleging that it stole wages from thousands of its employees in California between 2010 and 2017. The lawsuit alleged that Walgreens “rounded down employees’ hours on their timecards, required employees to pass through security checks before and after their shift without compensating them for time worked, and failed to pay premium wages to employees who were denied legally required meal breaks”.Walgreens’ settlement includes attorney’s fees and other penalties, but $2,830,000 went to Walgreens employees to compensate them for the wages that the company had stolen. And, because it is a settlement, that amount represents a small fraction of the total liability. According to the orderapproving the settlement, it represents “approximately 22% of the potential damages”. So this is a story of a corporation that stole millions of dollars from its own employees. How much news coverage did it generate? There was a single 221-word story in Bloomberg Law, an industry publication. And that’s it. There has been no coverage in the New York Times, USA Today, CNN, or the dozens of other publications that covered the story of a man stealing a few hundred dollars of merchandise.

Last Friday, There Were 585 New 52-Week Lows on the Nasdaq Stock Market — Versus 12 New 52-Week Highs By Pam Martens ~ Last Friday, December 3, 2021, the Nasdaq stock market recorded 12 stocks setting new 52-week highs in contrast to 585 stocks setting new 52-week lows. Let that sink in for a moment. There were 48.75 times more stocks setting new 52-week lows than were reaching new 52-week highs. That extremely negative reading of market breadth came on a day when the Nasdaq closed down just 1.9 percent. Imagine what the breadth would have looked like if the percentage decline on the overall market had been worse. Yesterday, Monday, December 6, with the Nasdaq closing up 139.6 points, the new 52-week lows still swamped highs, with 137 new lows and only 53 new highs. Unfortunately, Americans never see headlines in their newspapers about the deterioration in the stock market’s underpinnings. What they do see on a regular basis are headlines about the market setting a new high. This has the intended effect for Wall Street manipulators of sucking the little guy in at market tops as the smart guys “distribute” their inflated shares to the less informed. The one thing that will be different when this giant bubble finally pops, is that Fed Chair Jerome Powell, unlike former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, will not be able to tell Congress that nobody could have seen this market crash coming. There is now a loud chorus of veteran Wall Street investors who are calling this the biggest bubble of all time, or words to that effect. Just last week, Charlie Munger, the 97-year old Vice Chairman of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, stated at an Australian investment conference that he considers “this era even crazier than the dotcom era.” In a “Wall Street Week” interview on November 12, 83-year-old Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and Investment Strategist of the investment firm Grantham Mayo van Otterloo & Co. (GMO), stated that “This is more extreme in scale and size of market cap than anything that occurred in 1929, even adjusted for the size of the economy.” Grantham expanded as follows:“In 1929 there was a terrific buy-in and you could read articles in the Ladies Home Journal saying all you had to do to get rich was to buy stocks and hold on to them. And the same thing occurred in 2000 in the tech bubble. And the same thing occurred in the biggest bubble of all, which was Japan in 1989, when the Japanese market went to 65 times earnings.“But in U.S. history, I would say there is a bigger buy-in this time to the idea that prices never decline and that all you have to do is buy them, than there has ever been. Which suggests that when the decline comes, it will be perhaps bigger and better than anything previously in U.S. history.” You can watch the full Grantham interview in the YouTube video clip below.

Covid Spurs Biggest Rise in Life-Insurance Payouts in a Century – WSJ - The Covid-19 pandemic last year drove the biggest increase in death benefits paid by U.S. life insurers since the 1918 influenza epidemic, an industry trade group said. Death-benefit payments rose 15.4% in 2020 to $90.43 billion, mostly due to the pandemic, according to the American Council of Life Insurers. In 1918, payments surged 41%. The hit to the insurance industry was less than expected early in the pandemic because many of the victims were older people who typically have smaller policies. The industry paid out $78.36 billion in 2019, and payouts have typically increased modestly each year.Covid-19 also spurred the fastest rise in sales of insurance policies in 25 years, an industry research group said. Combined with good returns on some of insurers’ investments, industry assets increased 7.7% to $8.2 trillion in 2020, the ACLI’s figures show.Don E. Lippencott, a longtime agent for New York Life Insurance Co. on Long Island, said he aims to deliver death-benefit checks in person to clients. He couldn’t do that during the pandemic“It was gut wrenching and excruciating,” Mr. Lippencott said. Twenty-three of his clients died in 2020, roughly double the 10 to 12 deaths he has experienced in other years, with 10 of the deaths tied to Covid-19.The majority were in their 80s and 90s, and payouts ranged from $50,000 to $3 million, he said.“You just sit here and cry,” he said of clients he had known for decades. In ordinary times, part of an agent’s role is “being there with these families,” but lockdown restrictions precluded that. “We couldn’t be there, we couldn’t go to funerals, we couldn’t deliver the checks in person,” he said.It is unclear how many of the 385,343 deaths identified in 2020 by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as Covid-19 related were people who owned life insurance.Last summer, some publicly traded life insurers reduced estimates of their exposure, as measured by payouts per 100,000 U.S. Covid-19 fatalities. This was because deaths were heavily concentrated among older people, who tend to have smaller policies than people still in the workforce, if they have coverage at all.Working people often are covered under life-insurance programs offered as an employee benefit, and some buy individual policies as well to help cover their families’ expenses in the event of a premature death.

DB: Is The World Learning To Live With The Virus? After a day of zigzags on the virus front, we end with some encouraging observations from Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid who shows in his "chart of the day" that according to global mobility data, most of the world is back close to pre-pandemic levels of mobility (at least on a population-weighted basis) even if the GDP-weighted figure still lags, partly due to some of the larger DM economies still being down vs. February 2019. Regardless, as Reid observes, the graph shows that "on both measures mobility is notably above last year’s levels. This helps show why reasonably strong YoY growth shouldn’t be too difficult to attain in H1 2022. In H1 2021, the world wasn’t that mobile." This is good news because it means that - at least so far- as the winter covid wave and Omicron hit us, aggregate mobility hasn’t yet dipped. This, according to Reid, shows that either people are learning to live with the virus more or that it’s too early to tell as travel and domestic restrictions, only very recently imposed, have yet to fully take their toll, with more possibly to come. To be sure, Austrian mobility has declined significantly with Germany also drifting lower. So where restrictions have been imposed there has been a consequence. A more detailed heatmap of global mobility is shown below. To be sure, the swing factor to winter mobility will be Omicron. For those readers looking for good news, the second chart from Reid shows that in South Africa covid fatalities from the Omicron wave have not responded to the rise in cases in the same manner as prior ones (with a 12-day lag). While it is still very early days with the data subject to revisions, Reid notes that "we are getting more and more (albeit patchy) evidence that the new variant is less severe. So much now depends on how more transmissible it is, especially in heavily-vaccinated populations." Reid says that he leans on the optimistic side here "but it seems the number of Omicron cases are building fast enough that we should get some decent data very soon on how its impacting well-vaccinated countries."

 Fincen spells out rules for disclosing corporate ownership - — The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network proposed criteria for which companies must report beneficial-owner information under an anti-money-laundering law passed by Congress earlier this year. Under the proposal, a beneficial owner would be anyone with "substantial control" over the company or who owns at least 25%, according to a fact sheet released by the Treasury Department on Tuesday. The proposal outlines activities that qualify as substantial control. "This list would capture anyone who is able to make significant decisions on behalf of the entity," the fact sheet said.

Chopra distances CFPB from Trump era in settlement with consumer groups - Less than two months on the job as Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director, Rohit Chopra may have quietly exorcised a ghost left over from the Trump administration that threatened to haunt him for a long time. The CFPB this week settled a lawsuit brought by a group of consumer advocates that alleged former CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger, a Trump appointee, violated the Federal Advisory Committee Act when she created a task force of outside experts. The act says federal advisory committees must be essential, in the public interest, fairly balanced and structured to avoid inappropriate influence. The settlement puts to bed a potential legal headache for the Biden-era CFPB, but more importantly for Chopra it could neutralize the policy recommendations the task force issued in January and make it easier for him to advance a more pro-consumer agenda.

CFPB’s Chopra urges state AGs to enforce federal consumer laws --Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra made a forceful plea to state attorneys general to team up with the bureau on enforcement actions or bring their own under federal law. Speaking Monday at the National Association of Attorneys General, Chopra said he is considering changes that would allow states to access the CFPB’s multimillion-dollar Civil Penalty Fund to direct more relief to consumers in state actions. State attorneys general often are the first line of defense in protecting consumers and they should be using the federal prohibition on “unfair, deceptive or abusive acts or practices,” known as UDAAP, when filing enforcement actions against bad actors, he said.

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for September: "More than 750K borrowers left forbearance plans over the past 45 days" -- Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for September today. According to Black Knight, 3.74% of mortgage were delinquent in September, down from 3.91% of mortgages in August, and down from 6.44% in September 2020. Black Knight also reported that 0.26% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.33% a year ago. This gives a total of 4.07% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Tappable Equity Surges $254 Billion in Q3 to All-Time High of $9.4 Trillion as Cash-Out Refinance Borrowers Pull Largest Quarterly Volume of Equity in 14 Years Though the rate of home price appreciation has begun to slow in recent months, the explosive growth of the last few years has driven tappable equity – the amount available for a mortgage holder to access while retaining at least a 20% equity stake in their home – to one new height after another…, a nearly-quarter-trillion dollar increase in tappable equity over the third quarter has resulted in not only yet another record high, but also the lowest total market leverage on record. “Home price growth in the third quarter – while less than half that of Q2’s history-making rate – added more than $250 billion to Americans’ already record levels of tappable equity,” . “The aggregate total of $9.4 trillion is up an astonishing 32% from the same time last year and nearly 90% higher than the pre-Great Recession peak in 2006. As prices have surged over the past 18 months, the average mortgage-holder’s equity stake has risen by $53,000. That works out to nearly $178,000 available in tappable equity to the average homeowner with a mortgage before hitting a maximum combined loan-to-value ratio of 80%. What’s more, in the third quarter, homeowners tapped into their equity at the highest rate in more than 14 years as cash-outs made up 54% of all refinances. ... This month’s Mortgage Monitor also examines the impact of rising prices and interest rates on home affordability, finding that the monthly mortgage payment (principal and interest) to purchase the average-priced home with 20% down has jumped by nearly 25% since the start of the year. Factoring in incomes as well as prices across the country, it now requires 22.4% of the median income to purchase the average-priced home with 20% down and a 30-year mortgage. This is the largest share of income required for a home purchase since late 2018, when interest rates were near 5%, but still far below the 34%+ payment-to-income ratio reached in 2006. Here is a graph on delinquencies from Black Knight:

• The national delinquency rate, at 3.74%, is just over a half percentage point above the all-time low, set in January 2020
• Serious delinquencies fell by more than 10% (-127K) in October as the first wave of forbearance entrants returned to making mortgage payments
• Further improvement is expected in coming weeks as most borrowers exiting forbearance plans are still working through loss mitigation options with their lenders
• There are still nearly 700K more seriously delinquent mortgages (including those in active forbearance plans) than there were prior to the pandemic

And on the current status of loans that have exited forbearance:

• More than 750K borrowers left forbearance plans over the past 45 days, and while the dust continues to settle on their post-forbearance performance, early trends are like other recent exit months
• Trends are also becoming clearer among earlier forbearance exits, with fewer than 15% of borrowers who left plans in May remaining either delinquent (8%) or in post-forbearance loss mitigation (5%), a share that falls below 10% among those exiting before the end of April
• Among borrowers who left plans from September through November, only 7% are no longer in loss mitigation and remain delinquent, but 38% of such exits – and as many as 53% of those who exited in early November – remain in loss mitigation, as servicers and borrowers work through available options
• Given the large volume of exit activity over the past 45 days, all eyes will be on the success rate of those loss mitigation efforts in coming weeks

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

As Forbearance Ends – Mcbride - Previously I wrote: Forbearance, Delinquencies and Foreclosure: At the onset of the pandemic, there was a large increase in the number of mortgagors entering forbearance plans with their lenders. This caused some concern that these forbearance plans would eventually lead to a significant increase in foreclosures. Most of these forbearance plans were for 12 months, with up to 6 months of extensions - for a total of 18 months. Since many of these borrowers entered these plans in April and May of 2020, the 18 months will end in September and October 2021. An analysis from Black Knight today, in their monthly mortgage monitor, indicates most borrowers are successfully leaving forbearance. Out of the 7.7 million borrowers that entered COVID related forbearance, only a small fraction are in foreclosure or delinquent (and not in active loss mitigation). Here is a chart from Black Knight: Despite the lack of a federal foreclosure moratorium, post-forbearance loans in active foreclosure have increased by just 2K (to 38K) over the past 60 days.  Nearly 250K borrowers returned to making mortgage payments over that same period, with another nearly 200K paying off their mortgages in full.  That said, the populations of borrowers in post-forbearance loss mitigation along with those not in loss mitigation that could be subject to foreclosure in the future have risen as well And this graph shows the current status of loans by plan exit month. Most of the loans in active mitigation recently exited forbearance.More than 750K borrowers left forbearance plans over the past 45 days, and while the dust continues to settle on their post-forbearance performance, early trends are like other recent exit months.  Trends are also becoming clearer among earlier forbearance exits, with fewer than 15% of borrowers who left plans in May remaining either delinquent (8%) or in post-forbearance loss mitigation (5%), a share that falls below 10% among those exiting before the end of April.  Among borrowers who left plans from September through November, only 7% are no longer in loss mitigation and remain delinquent, but 38% of such exits – and as many as 53% of those who exited in early November – remain in loss mitigation, as servicers and borrowers work through available options So far, the data suggests the vast majority of borrowers that were in forbearance will return to current status. I’ll continue to track the data over the next few months, but this isn’t a huge concern.

CoreLogic: 470 thousand Homes with Negative Equity in Q3 2021 -- From CoreLogic: Homeowners Gained Over $3.2 Trillion in Equity in Q3 2021, CoreLogic Reports - CoreLogic® ... today released the Homeowner Equity Report for the third quarter of 2021. The report shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 63% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by 31.1% year over year, representing a collective equity gain of over $3.2 trillion, and an average gain of $56,700 per borrower, since the third quarter of 2020. This summer, home price growth reached the highest level in more than 45 years, pushing equity gains to another record high and allowing 70,000 properties to regain equity in the third quarter of 2021. These equity gains provided a crucial barrier against foreclosure for the 1.2 million borrowers who reached the end of forbearance in September. “Home price growth is the principal driver of home equity creation,”. “The CoreLogic Home Price Index reported home prices were up 17.7% for the past 12 months ending September, spurring the record gains in home equity wealth.” ... Negative equity, also referred to as underwater or upside-down mortgages, applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth. As of the third quarter of 2021, negative equity share, and the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes, were as follows:
• Quarterly change: From the second quarter of 2021 to the third quarter of 2021, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased by 5.7% to 1.2 million homes, or 2.1% of all mortgaged properties.
• Annual change: In the third quarter of 2020, 1.6 million homes, or 3% of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity. This number decreased by 28.9%, or approximately 470,000 properties, in the third quarter of 2021.
• National aggregate value: The national aggregate value of negative equity was approximately $276.2 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2021. This is up quarter over quarter by approximately $8.2 billion, or 3%, from $268 billion in the second quarter of 2021, and down year over year by approximately $8.3 billion, or 2.9%, from $284.5 billion in the third quarter of 2020.
This graph from CoreLogic compares Q3 to Q2 2021 equity distribution by LTV. There are still a few properties with LTV over 125%. But most homeowners have a significant amount of equity. This is a very different picture than at the start of the housing bust when many homeowners had little equity. On a year-over-year basis, the number of homeowners with negative equity has declined from 1.6 million to 470 thousand.

NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Increased YoY in Early December - From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 77.1 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of December 6 - The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 77.1 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by December 6 in its survey of 11.8 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.This is a 1.7 percentage point increase from the share who paid rent through December 6, 2020 and compares to 83.2 percent that had been paid by December 6, 2019. This data encompasses a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.The NMHC Rent Payment Tracker metric provides insight into changes in resident rent payment behavior over the course of each month, and, as the dataset ages, between months. While the tracker is intended to serve as an indicator of resident financial challenges, it is also intended to track the recovery as well, including the effectiveness of government stimulus and subsidies. This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 6th of the month compared to 2019 and to the first COVID year. Although payments are down from 2019, rent payments are up from last year.This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties.The second graph shows full month payments through November compared to the same month the prior year.For November, rent payments were down compared to November 2019 and 2020.

 MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey: From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 3, 2021. The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.... The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 37 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 28 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates declined for the first time in a month, prompting a pickup in refinancing, with government refinances increasing more than 20 percent over the week. While the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and 15- year fixed mortgage rate both declined only one basis point, the FHA rate fell 7 basis points, driving the surge in government refinances. Borrowers are continuing to act on these opportunities, but if rates trend higher as MBA is forecasting, the window of opportunity to refinance will continue to get smaller,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The purchase market was slower last week, with applications falling after four consecutive increases. Activity is still close to the highest level since March 2021, which is a positive sign as the year comes to an end. Purchase activity continues to be constrained by a lack of inventory, combined with rapid rates of home-price appreciation and mortgage rates higher than in 2020.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.30 percent from 3.31 percent, with points decreasing to 0.39 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With relatively low rates, the index remains slightly elevated, but down sharply from last year.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase indexAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 8% year-over-year unadjusted.

CoreLogic: House Prices up 18% YoY in October - The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth at a Record 18% in October, CoreLogic Reports: CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for October 2021. U.S. annual home price growth remained strong at 18% in October, the highest recorded in the 45-year history of the index. Nonetheless, monthly price growth has slowed from its April peak and signals a moderation in price growth that the CoreLogic HPI Forecast projects will continue to slow in coming months.Despite affordability challenges, a recent CoreLogic consumer survey shows that over half of respondents across every age cohort said that owning a home has always been a goal of theirs — further supporting the outlook that consumer desire for homeownership remains.“New household formation, investor purchases and pandemic-related factors driving demand for the limited supply of available for-sale homes continues to propel the upward spiral of U.S. home prices,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “However, we expect home price growth to moderate over the near term as many buyers take a break for the holidays.”...Nationally, home prices increased 18% in October 2021, compared to October 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.3% compared to September 2021....Home price gains are projected to slow to a 2.5% increase by October 2022 as affordability and economic concerns deter some potential buyers and additional for-sale inventory becomes available. "Single-family detached houses remain the preferred home for buyers during the pandemic,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “This is reflected in the 19.5% annual price rise for detached houses, which marks another record-high for the CoreLogic Home Price Index.”

 Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Declines in November"; Up Sharply Year-over-year From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines In November: The Dodge Momentum Index fell 4% in November to 171.7 (2000=100) — down from the revised October reading of 178.1. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In November, commercial planning fell 8% while institutional planning moved 5% higher. The value of nonresidential building projects continues to move in a sawtooth pattern, alternating between a month of gains followed by a loss. Since the pandemic began, nonresidential building projects entering planning have been more volatile than in past cycles, likely driven by increased challenges from higher prices and lack of labor. Despite these issues and a lack of underlying demand for some building types such as offices and hotels, the Momentum Index remains near a 14-year high. Compared to November 2020, the Momentum Index was 44% higher in November 2021. The commercial planning component was 45% higher, and institutional was 41% higher. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 171.7 in November, down from 178.1 in October. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggested a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a pickup towards the end of the year, and growth in 2022.

 Amazon Web Services goes down, taking huge parts of internet offline - Amazon Web Services (AWS) went down Tuesday morning, leaving large parts of the internet reliant on the tech giant’s services offline. The outage was still impacting sites throughout Tuesday afternoon, but Amazon said it was starting to see signs of some recovery. On its health service dashboard, AWS posted a message at 11:22 a.m. that the company is "investigating increased error rates for the AWS Management Console." “We are experiencing API and console issues in the US-EAST-1 Region. We have identified root cause and we are actively working towards recovery,” AWS said in the message. In an update around 3:30 p.m. the company said the cause was an impairment of several network devices and it was working toward mitigating the issue. “While we have observed some early signs of recovery, we do not have an ETA for full recovery,” the company said. Users reported outage issues across Amazon’s own products, including its e-commerce website, Prime Music, Prime Video and Amazon Alexa, according to Down Detector. Outside websites hosted by AWS including Disney Plus, Tinder and Venmo were also experiencing outage issues, according to Down Detector.

Maxed Out? US Consumer Credit Growth Slows Sharply In October - After several months of blistering growth in consumer credit as US households charged purchases on their credit cards (as their bank accounts, fattened up by months of stimmies in 2020 which however ended in early 2021, had run dangerously dry), in October the growth in consumer credit dropped notably, rising by just $16.9BN, missing expectations of a $25 billion increase, and down sharply from $27.8BN in September, well below the six-month average of $23.5 billion.Looking at the breakdown, the weakness was spread uniformly between revolving and non-revolving credit.As shown in the chart below, credit card debt (i.e., revolving debt) rose $6.582 billion, down from $9.8 billion the month before, and well below the record $17.7 billion hit in June. Still, we are a along way away from the record stretch of constant credit card paydowns that dominated activity in 2020. Perhaps even more than in revolving credit, there was an acute slowdown in growth in non-revolving credit as well, which rose just $10.3 billion in October, down sharply from $18.1 billion in September, and well below the recent high hit in May at $24 billion.While not an imminent alert just yet, the big decline - and miss of expectations - may be the first indication that US consumers, having spent the bulk of their stimmy savings - we are talking about the middle class here, not the top 20% who pocketed more than two-thirds of all Biden stimmies...

Biggest Mess I’ve Ever Seen: Used-Vehicle Wholesale Prices Spike to Ridiculousness. Just Wait till they Hit CPI Again By Wolf Richter -- Prices of cars and trucks sold at auctions around the US jumped another 3.9% in November from October, according to Manheim, the largest auto auction operator in the US. These crazy prices have now spiked by 44% from the already sky-high levels in November 2020.But underlying market dynamics began to soften just a tad in November from the white-hot activity in October, and Manheim figured that auto dealers “remained more aggressive in buying than is typically the case in the fall, but were less aggressive than in October.” In October, prices had spiked month-to-month by the most ever (9.2%). So slightly less extremely crazy? Prices in the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index are adjusted for the mix of models and mileage, and for seasonal factors. The unadjusted price increase in November was 1.9% month-to-month and 44% year-over-year. Over the summer, the brief hesitation in the price spike – that little zigzag in the chart above – was cited as indication why inflation would be “temporary” and that prices were already unwinding. Then WOOSH. Now even the Fed’s Powell has “retired” the term “temporary.”But yes, everyone knows this crazy price spike cannot go on forever. And I said it in the spring too, and then it zigzagged and then, you know, WOOSH. It’s the biggest mess I’ve ever seen. Now I’m saying the same thing: These even crazier price spikes cannot last forever. They’ve got to come down to earth. But who knows what’s going to happen – because already, this should never have happened.Compared to the old-normal in November 2019, prices have now spiked by a mind-boggling 67%…. WOOSH: These price spikes show that there is something seriously wrong – and it’s easy to blame the “bottlenecks” and “shortages,” and they’re serious issues. But they’re not the cause of these crazy price spikes. The cause is buying behavior – psychology. Buying vehicles is the ultimate discretionary purchase for most Americans: They trade in one perfectly good but older vehicle for a newer one, though they might as well drive the older vehicle for another year or two to dodge the madness. They have done this during the Financial Crisis, and dealer lots were overflowing with cars. But now, the whole psychology has changed, and price doesn’t matter anymore.Consumers are just paying whatever, and auto dealers know it, and so they’re paying whatever at the auction, confident that they can sell those units with super-high markups to these crazy retail buyers out there.

BLS: CPI increased 0.8% in November; Core CPI increased 0.5% -From the BLS:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.8 percent before seasonal adjustment. The monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase was the result of broad increases in most component indexes, similar to last month. The indexes for gasoline, shelter, food, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles were among the larger contributors. The energy index rose 3.5 percent in November as the gasoline index increased 6.1 percent and the other major energy component indexes also rose. The food index increased 0.7 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.8 percent. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in Novemberfollowing a 0.6-percent increase in October. Along with shelter, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, and airline fares were among those that increased. The indexes for motor vehicle insurance, recreation, and communication all declined in November. The all items index rose 6.8 percent for the 12 months ending October, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982. The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index rose 33.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 6.1 percent. These changes are the largest 12-month increases in at least 13 years in the respective series. Both CPI and core CPI were close to expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.5% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.5% in November -- The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.5% in November. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Fuel oil and other fuels" were up 104% annualized. Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up around 5% to 6% annualized in November. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 4.6%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 4.9%. Core PCE is for October and increased 4.1% year-over-year.

WOOSH, Shock-and-Awe Loss of Dollar Purchasing Power Hits Americans. Worst Inflation in 40 Years. Getting it Under Control Will Be a BitchThe broadest Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) spiked by 0.8% in November from October, and by 6.8% from a year ago, the highest since June 1982, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. But it gets better. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), the index upon which the Social Security COLAs are based, spiked by 7.6% in November year-over-year — exceeding even Mexico’s soaring inflation rate — and the worst since January 1982. But in January 1982, inflation was coming down; now inflation is surging. At the time, the Fed’s short-term interest rates were over 13%; now they’re still near 0%, and the Fed is still printing $105 billion in the current period from mid-November through mid-December, though it will reduce the money printing further. Nearly all interest rates and yields, including on risky junk bonds, are now negative in real terms. This – the Powell Fed that unleashed this monster and has been feeding it month after month – has got to be the most reckless Fed ever. Inflation without food and energy – OK, Americans, go ahead and try to live without food and energy – spiked by 4.9%, the most since June 1991. This shows how embedded inflation is now in the economy beyond energy, and it has started to hit services, which is hard to explain away by jabbering uselessly about “bottlenecks and shortages.” Inflation in consumer prices is another term for the loss of the purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar. In November, the purchasing power of what was $1 in January 2000 dropped to 60.81 cents: Rent Factors, nearly one-third of CPI, still lag far behind reality but started to rise. Two measures of rent make up 32% in the Consumer Price Index. In 2020 and early in 2021, these two rent factors dropped sharply and pushed down CPI, even as other prices were surging, thereby keeping CPI from spiking even more. They turned around in June and have been rising every month since then, but they’re still holding down CPI, even as market rents in the 100 largest cities have been spiking for months. “Rent of primary residence” (makes up 7.6% of overall CPI), rose by 0.4% in November from October, and by 3.0% year-over-year but is still far below where it had been before the pandemic and far, far below the surge in market rents, which are only gradually filtering into CPI (red in the chart below). “Owner’s equivalent rent of residences” (makes up 23.5% of overall CPI) is used as a substitute for the costs of homeownership. It is based on surveys that ask what homeowners think their home might rent for. It rose 0.4% for the month, and 3.5% year-over-year. These rent measures are still holding down CPI (6.8% in November), but as they’re catching up little by little with reality in the market, those rent measures will continue to rise, and given their 32% weight in the index will push CPI higher, and it has nothing to do with supply chains and bottlenecks; these are services: Actual home prices have spiked by historic amounts. According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index – it tracks price changes of the same house over time and is therefore a measure of house price inflation – has soared by 20% year-over-year (purple line below), while “Owner’s equivalent of rent,” which is supposed to track the costs of homeownership, is just starting to ease higher (red line). Both indexes are set to 100 for January 2000: Food costs (makes up 14% of overall CPI), jumped 0.7% for the month and 6.1% year-over-year, with the CPI for meats jumping by 16% year-over year. Energy costs (7.5% of overall CPI) spiked by 3.5% for the month and by 33% year-over-year:

CPI Inflation in November by Menzie Chinn - Month-on-month down, even if up year-on-year. Trimmed and sticky price inflation (m/m) are also down. First, recall 12 month inflation rates (aka y/y rates) are largely backward looking. Month-on-month measures are more reflective of current conditions, albeit more noisy. Figure 1: CPI month-on-month inflation rate, annualized (blue), 12 month or year-on-year inflation rate (pink), in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations. What do other measures of overall CPI inflation look like on a m/m basis? Figure 2: Month-on-month inflation of CPI (blue), chained CPI (brown), 16% trimmed CPI inflation (red), sticky price CPI inflation (green), personal consumption expenditure deflator inflation (black), all in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). Chained CPI seasonally adjusted using arithmetic deviations (brown). NBER defined recession dates (peak-to-trough) shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations. Figure 2: CPI – all urban (blue), , in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations. Chained CPI m/m inflation is down, as are trimmed mean and sticky price. A lower trimmed mean inflation means that the decline in broad-based, and not being driven by outliers. Declining sticky price inflation means that infrequently changed prices are rising, but at a slower pace than before. Moving to core measures (i.e., excluding food and energy prices), we see the following picture (note the vertical scale is made to have the same range as in Figure 2 to better illustrate how core measures have exhibited less variability). Figure 3: Month-on-month CPI core inflation (blue), chained CPI core (brown), sticky price CPI core inflation (green), personal consumption expenditure core deflator inflation (black), all in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). Chained CPI seasonally adjusted using arithmetic deviations (brown). NBER defined recession dates (peak-to-trough) shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations. Beware of “records”. On a month-on-month basis, inflation has been higher over the past 20 years. Figure 4: CPI month-on-month inflation rate, annualized (blue), in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations. A final observation: whether high inflation m/m persists depends in part on what happens to gasoline prices, as illustrated in Figure 5. Figure 5: CPI year-on-year inflation rate (pink, left scale), CPI-gasoline component year-on-year inflation rate (chartreuse, right scale), in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations. Fortunately, oil futures are pointing downward, so indications are for relief on that end.

Biden may get reprieve with gas prices projected to drop - The price of gasoline is expected to fall in the coming weeks, a shift that could give U.S. consumers shaken by inflation some relief — and that could also boost President Biden. The White House has been hammered by Republicans over rising fuel prices, as the cost of gas has skyrocketed from its lows during the pandemic. The price at the pump is widely seen as a factor in Biden’s falling approval ratings, which have also taken hits from pandemic fatigue, inflation, fallout from the withdrawal from Afghanistan and dissatisfaction over Democratic bickering over the Biden agenda in Congress. Crude oil hit a peak of nearly $85 per barrel on Oct. 26 but dropped all the way to about $66 per barrel on Dec. 1 amid fears of the new omicron variant of the coronavirus. On Tuesday, prices were back to about $72 per barrel as fears in markets ease over the extent of the danger from omicron. Prices at the pump didn’t drop immediately, but have come down in recent days, averaging $3.35 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). That’s down from $3.39 a week ago and $3.42 a month ago — which is likely not enough to provide much of a relief to U.S. drivers. AAA spokesman Andrew Gross said crude prices remain between $60 and $70, and that will deliver cuts to consumers. “They kind of met some resistance at $3.42 and now they seem to be retreating,” Gross said. “That’s really all due to the price of oil per barrel, as long as oil prices keep kind of bouncing around in the 60s, that takes a lot of pressure off of what people pay at the pump.” Meanwhile, the federal government released a new projection on Tuesday showing that gas prices are expected to keep falling, averaging $3.13 per gallon this month, and falling to $3.01 per gallon in January. It noted that its projection is facing “heightened levels of uncertainty” because of the coronavirus pandemic and specifically the omicron variant.

Food Price Inflation Next -- As if the year 2022 wasn't already shaping up as a dangerous and volatile year, what if we throw in some soaring food prices and food shortages, too? Since mid-2020, we've been writing and warning about inflation, stagflation, and the economic stress that would persist following the Covid lockdowns that, unfortunately, have continued into late 2021. One of the tricks that the central bankers have utilized to manage inflation perceptions is the overuse of the word "transitory" when it comes to price inflation. If anything, this theater has proven to be excellent fodder for these weekly posts, and we've written about it often. And now, finally, both Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen have been forced to admit that the current inflation is NOT transitory. See below: So far, at least, the most significant price inflation has been limited to industrial commodities and finished retail goods. While these cost increases have been painful to consumers, the impacts have been manageable. What happens, though, if price inflation suddenly spills over to the global food supply? Not everyone urgently needs a new washer/dryer, and that cost can be put off for a while. But not food. Everyone needs food every day, and if food costs suddenly soar, we've got a problem. So far, agricultural commodity prices have avoided the sort of price spikes we've seen in the industrial commodities. Could that be about to change? First consider this chart from Tavi Costa at Crescat Capital. Are agricultural commodity prices beginning to break out?

Can GM increase electric vehicle production 2800 percent in four years? - General Motors (GM) has committed to spending $35 billion to bring 30 new fully electric vehicles (EVs) to its market worldwide by the end of 2025 — just four years from now. And the company says that two-thirds of those models will be available in the United States. About 40 percent of GM’s U.S. production will consist of battery-powered vehicles, including crossovers, SUVs and trucks. Set aside for a moment whether or not that’s a good goal; it may well be. The real issue is whether it’s an achievable goal. Just look at the manufacturing and sales challenge. According to Auto Industry Portal Marklines, GM sold 1,766,219 passenger cars, light-duty trucks and SUVs in the United States from January through September of this year. Since it’s anyone’s guess what sales will be in 2025 (given the pandemic uncertainty, the potential for a recession or an economic boom, etc.), we’ll use the January-September 2021 numbers. Forty percent of roughly 1.76 million new vehicles sold would be about 706,000 — the number of EVs GM would need to produce to hit its 2025 U.S. target for the same time period. Doable? The only real guide we have is GM’s current EV track record, and it’s not encouraging. GM’s only EV for sale is the Chevy Bolt, which appeared in the U.S. market in 2017. It has won several awards, such as Motor Trend’s 2017 Car of the Year. And yet GM has sold only 24,803 Bolts this year through September, according to Inside EVs, and that is “already more than any previous year.”But that’s only about 3.5 percent of all U.S. GM vehicle sales for January through September. For GM to meet its 40 percent goal, it will have to up its current EV production by 2800 percent.

Tesla says Tesla Semi electric truck's weight is on point, and that's crucial - Tesla made a rare comment about the Tesla Semi electric truck’s weight, which is going to be crucial to the success of the electric truck.The automaker says that Tesla Semi will be able to transport a payload “at least as high as it would be for a diesel truck.”In the US, class 8 trucks are required to weigh less than 80,000 lbs with their load.Since the load is what makes trucking money, the weight of the actual truck is extremely important since every pound in tractor weight is a pound that is not being transported for a paying customer.There have been some concerns that battery-electric trucks would be heavier, and therefore they would be at a disadvantage having to carry lighter loads.Tesla CEO Elon Musk previously said that Tesla Semi wouldn’t have this issue as he expects that in the worst-case scenario, the Tesla Semi would have to give up less than 1 ton to diesel trucks, which weigh about 17,000 lbs (8.5 tons) on average.In a rare new comment about the situation as part of its 2020 Impact report, Tesla said that it now expects the Tesla Semi to be able to carry a payload “at least as high as it would be for a diesel truck.” Interestingly, the company reports a little known fact that electric trucks in the US and Europe have both been approved for slightly higher total load:

Trade Deficit Decreased to $67.1 Billion in October - From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.1 billion in October, down $14.3 billion from $81.4 billion in September, revised.October exports were $223.6 billion, $16.8 billion more than September exports. October imports were $290.7 billion, $2.5 billion more than September imports.Both exports and imports increased in October. Exports are up 18% compared to October 2020; imports are up 22% compared to October 2020. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports),The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero.The trade deficit with China increased to $31.4 billion in October, from $30.0 billion in October 2020.

Record exports sharply narrow U.S. trade deficit (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in October as exports soared to a record high, potentially setting up trade to contribute to economic growth this quarter for the first time in more than a year. The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday, which also showed imports rising to an all-time high, added to a tightening labor market, strong consumer spending as well as services and manufacturing activity that have suggested an acceleration in growth was underway as the year winds down. The trade gap plunged 17.6% to a six-month low of $67.1 billion. That was the biggest percentage drop since April 2015, reflecting an increase in the flow of goods and services following disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a $66.8 billion deficit. Exports accelerated 8.1% to an all-time high of $223.6 billion. The surge was led by goods exports, which soared 11.1% to $158.7 billion, also a record high. Exports of industrial supplies and materials increased $6.4 billion, with shipments of crude oil advancing $1.2 billion. Petroleum exports were the highest on record. Capital goods exports increased $3.1 billion, boosted by other industrial machines as well as civilian aircraft. Food exports rose by $2.1 billion, with soybeans increasing $1.8 billion. Exports of consumer goods jumped $1.6 billion, lifted by increases in shipments of gem diamonds as well as motor vehicles, parts and engines. The nation exported more services, which rose $1.0 billion to $64.9 billion. That reflected a rise in overseas travel, other business services and charges for the use of intellectual property. Further gains are likely after the United States reopened its borders to international travelers in early November after a 20-month ban. The Omicron variant of the coronavirus could, however, temporarily slow international travel following recent restrictions on travelers from southern African countries. The surge in exports eclipsed a 0.9% increase in imports to $290.7 billion, also a record high. Goods imports climbed 0.7% to an all-time high of $242.7 billion. The rise was led by motor vehicles, parts and engines, which increased $1.5 billion. There were also gains in imports of consumer goods, including cell phones and other household goods. Imports of industrial supplies and materials fell as did imports of capital goods, pulled down by declines in semiconductors and civilian aircraft. There is a global chip shortage. Adjusted for inflation, the goods deficit decreased $13.5 billion to $97.6 billion in October. That was the smallest so-called real goods deficit since last December. If the real goods trade deficit continues to shrink, trade could contribute to gross domestic product this quarter. The trade gap has been a drag on GDP growth for five straight quarters.

 Long covid is destroying careers, leaving economic distress in its wake - Suffering from debilitating exhaustion and pain for months, patients find themselves on food stamps and Medicaid - Tiffany Patino got sick with covid-19 more than a year ago. Instead of getting better, chronic exhaustion and other symptoms persisted, delaying her return to a restaurant job and swamping her goal of financial independence. After reaching what she calls her “hell-iversary” last month, Patino remains unable to rejoin the workforce. With no income of her own, she’s exhausted, racked with pain, short of breath, forgetful, bloated, swollen, depressed. At 28 years old, she can barely take her baby to the playground. “I go on a walk, and I have to use the stroller like a walker,” she said. “Whatever life I have right now, it’s more like surviving. I’m not living my dream. I’m living a nightmare.” Across America, many of the nearly 50 million people infected with thecoronavirus continue to suffer from some persistent symptoms, with a smaller subset experiencing such unbearable fatigue and other maladies that they can’t work, forcing them to drop out of the workforce, abandon careers and rack up huge debts.Hard data is not available and estimates vary widely, but based on published studies and their own experience treating patients, several medical specialists said 750,000 to 1.3 million patients likely remain so sick for extended periods that they can’t return to the workforce full time.Long covid is testing not just the medical system, but also government safety nets that are not well suited to identifying and supporting people with a newly emerging chronic disease that has no established diagnostic or treatment plan. Insurers are denying coverage for some tests, the public disability system is hesitant to approve many claims, and even people with long-term disability insurance say they are struggling to get benefits.Employers are also being tested, as they must balance their desire to get workers back on the job full time with the realities of a slow recovery for many patients.“They are suffering in dramatic ways, and in ways that have altered their lives and placed them in financial peril,” said Harlan Krumholz, a cardiologist and scientist at Yale University and Yale New Haven Hospital.The Washington Post interviewed more than 30 people around the country experiencing the sudden financial slide caused by the long form of the disease. They have been laid off and fired, quit jobs, shuttered businesses. They described falling behind on rent, mortgages and car payments. Some worried about losing their housing.Depression and anxiety that are part of the brutal mix of long covid symptoms are exacerbated by despair over vanishing income. From health-care professionals and small-business operators to government employees and warehouse supervisors, the patients expressed fears about never being able to return to work. Often referred to as “long haulers,” they experience mild symptoms to begin with, then get stuck with months of chronic fatigue, shortness of breath, confusion and memory loss, erratic and racing heartbeats, radical spikes in blood pressure, painful rashes, shooting pains and gastrointestinal problems.

BLS: Job Openings Increased to 11.0 million in October - From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings increased to 11.0 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.5 million and total separations edged down to 5.9 million. Within separations, the quits rate decreased to 2.8 percent following a series high in September. The layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 0.9 percent. The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October, the most recent employment report was for November. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The huge spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in October to 11.033 million from 10.602 million in September. The number of job openings (yellow) were up 61% year-over-year. Quits were up 24% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

October JOLTS report: at least the jobs market isn’t getting any worse in disequilibrium -The JOLTS report for October was released this morning. While it did not indicate any significant progress towards a new labor equilibrium, at least the trends did not get any more destabilized. Job openings (blue in the graph below) increased to 11.033 million, which remains below the July peak of 11.098 million. Voluntary quits (the “great resignation,” gold, right scale) decreased to 4.157 million, a decline of over 200,000 from last month’s peak. Actual hires (red) decreased slightly to 6.464 million, in line with the past few months, and better than the early part of this year: Layoffs and discharges (violet, right scale in the graph below) decreased to 1.361 million, slightly above the May all-time low of 1.353 million. Total separations (blue) decreased to 5.892 million, a three-month low: So, we have near-record (but not record) job openings, layoffs, and quits, with still-strong hiring and a normal level of total separations. The situation is not getting any more out of sync, but on the other hand progress towards a new equilibrium has been very limited, to say the least. So, what am I looking for going forward? The JOLTS data has only been around for 20 years, and neither jobs recovery after the two last recessions were very strong. In other words, we are in terra incognito for this series. In order for the situation to resolve, the first thing I want or expect to see is a further increase in monthly hiring. At the same time, or shortly thereafter, I would expect to see a significant decline in voluntary quits. Only after these two things have occurred would I expect to see a substantial downturn in job openings, and I would not expect to see any significant increase in layoffs until all of those other trends are in place.

 Labor Shortages Worsen, Companies Poach Workers from Each Other amid Massive Churn - Wolf Richter - Total Job Openings in October rose again, to 11.03 million (seasonally adjusted), up by 50% or by 3.7 million from October two years ago, after slightly dipping in September and August, to nearly match the blistering record set in June, a testimony to the massive labor shortages still dogging many industries across the US.These job openings are not based on job postings, but on a survey of 21,000 nonfarm business establishments and government entities by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released today in its JOLTS report. Hiring was also very strong – by far the best October ever – as companies filled job openings by poaching each other’s employees, offering higher pay, bonuses, and better benefits, leading to both, a large number of “hires” and a large number of “quits,” as people quit their old jobs to take up those better job offers, creating large-scale churn – a form of job arbitrage in a labor market where labor has a lot more power than before.In Manufacturing, job openings spiked to a record 1.01 million (seasonally adjusted). Compared to October two years ago (2019), job openings were up by 153%, as manufacturers struggled with labor shortages, as much as they struggled with materials and components shortages, such as the semiconductor shortage that has slammed automakers and heavy-truck and equipment manufacturers. In the Wholesale Trade, job openings rose to a record 329,000 openings (not seasonally adjusted), up by 29% from October 2019: In Construction, job openings spiked to 410,000, up by 27% from October 2019, and matched the one-month miracle of April 2019: In Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities, job openings dipped to 614,000 openings, the second highest ever, and up 79% from two years ago. These sectors include many of the workers that move the merchandise coming down the tangled-up supply chains, such as truck drivers, delivery drivers, and warehouse workers. In Education and Health Services, job openings jumped to a record 2.0 million, up by 54% from two years ago: In Professional and Business Services, job openings rose to 1.82 million openings, the third-highest ever, behind July and August, and up 51% from October 2019: In Healthcare and Social Assistance, job openings jumped to a record 1.82 million, up 55% from October 2019: In Leisure and Hospitality – includes restaurants of all kinds, bars, hotels, casinos, art & entertainment – job openings jumped to 1.78 million, the second highest ever, and up by 80% from two years ago. Low wages combined with difficult working conditions, including split shifts, night shifts, and weekend shifts, along with higher risks of infection have made hiring and retaining employees very challenging. Employers have raised wages in response, and they have tried to improve shifts and hours. The industry has always had a lot of turnover, and has even more turnover now. In October, 887,000 workers quit these jobs, the third-highest after the records in August and September, as workers tried to get better jobs either in the industry or in another industry. But companies in the sector were able to hire 1.25 million people in October, many of them poached from other businesses in this industry, where these workers are then reported as quits.

Real Wages through November Menzie Chinn - If current nowcasts are accurate, we see erosion in some real wages, but not those for hospitality and leisure. And not even for aggregate if one uses the PCE deflator. Figure 1 shows wages deflated into 2020$ using the CPI.Figure 1: Average hourly earnings of private sector nonsupervisory and production workers (black), manufacturing (chartreuse), leisure and hospitality services (red), all in 2020$/hour, s.a., on a log scale. Deflated using CPI, November 2021 observation using Cleveland Fed nowcast of 12/3. NBER defined recession dates peak-to-trough shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.It’s hard to see how these levels compare to 2020M02 on this scale, so in Figure 2, I normalize to the NBER peak levels.Figure 2: Average hourly earnings of private sector nonsupervisory and production workers (black), manufacturing (chartreuse), leisure and hospitality services (red), all in 2020$/hour, in logs 2020M02=0. Deflated using CPI, November 2021 observation using Cleveland Fed nowcast of 12/3. NBER defined recession dates peak-to-trough shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.So real wages are above 2020M02 levels in the cases of overall and manufacturing, and very much so leisure and hospitality services (which are 5.2% above).Note one’s view of what’s happening to total average wages depends on the deflator.Figure 3: Average hourly earnings of private sector nonsupervisory and production workers deflated by CPI (black), by personal consumption expenditure deflator (teal), all in 2020$/hour, s.a., on a log scale. November 2021 observation using Cleveland Fed nowcast of 12/3. NBER defined recession dates peak-to-trough shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.

 Kellogg’s strikers overwhelmingly reject sellout contract, company moves to hire permanent replacements - Striking Kellogg’s workers have voted “overwhelmingly” against a tentative agreement containing major concessions to management over two-tiered wages, the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers' International Union (BCGTM) announced in a tersely worded statement released Tuesday morning. The 1,400 workers at four plants across the US have been on strike for more than two months. Vote totals were not available as of this writing. The outcome of the vote, held on Sunday, comes in defiance of threats from both Kellogg’s management and the union. Few details of the contract were made public before the vote, and Battle Creek workers were expected to vote the same day as their informational meetings, a clear indication that the contract was a betrayal. Workers speaking anonymously to the World Socialist Web Site before the vote said that the few details they had seen—pay increases of only 3 percent, less than half of the current rate of inflation, and the elimination of caps on the size of the second-tier workforce—were enough for them to know the contract was a sell-out. Kellogg’s management made it clear during negotiations that they would not budge on the most essential demands of workers, walking out of negotiations and threatening to permanently replace striking workers. In a statement Tuesday after the results were announced, Kellogg’s announced they now intend to carry out this threat and will immediately move to hire permanent replacements “to ensure business continuity.” Management also blamed the union for “creating unrealistic expectations for our employees”—in other words, for insufficiently softening up workers before the vote. Workers took to social media during the voting process to express their anger over the deal. “What’s the point in even voting on something that didn’t solve any of the reasons and why they went on strike in the first place?!?” one wrote. “What about back pay for these workers or signing bonus for these workers to even come back… seems like a pointless vote to me.” Another wrote, “No cap on transitionals [second-tier workers] is a death sentence. A percent of a shrinking number means less and less full-time employees. No cap on transitionals will result in a replaced work force with no full health care, no COLA, and no pension. It’s exactly why we went on strike in the first place. It’s exactly why I will stay on strike. We will not cut the throats of future employees.” “3% barely covers inflation, and that's only for legacy employees?” a third worker wrote. “I say hold out for more and abolish your tier system.” Another simply said, “Not worth a vote! Union Negotiators, you gotta be kidding!”

Kellogg to replace 1,400 strikers as deal is rejected - Kellogg has said it is permanently replacing 1,400 workers who have been on strike since October, a decision that comes as the majority of its cereal plant workforce rejected a deal that would have provided 3% raises. The Bakery, Confectionary, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers (BCTGM) International Union said an overwhelming majority of workers had voted down the five-year offer. The decision follows months of bitter disagreement between the company and the union. The rejected offer would have provided cost of living adjustments in the later years of the deal and preserved the workers’ current healthcare benefits. But workers say they deserve significant raises because they routinely work more than 80 hours a week, and they kept the plants running throughout the coronavirus pandemic. Employees have been striking since 5 October at plants in Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. They make all of the company’s well-known brands of cereal, including Apple Jacks and Frosted Flakes. The strike is expected to continue. “The members have spoken. The strike continues,” the union president, Anthony Shelton, said. “The International Union will continue to provide full support to our striking Kellogg’s members.” Workers say they are also protesting planned job cuts and offshoring, and a proposed two-tier system that gives newer workers at the plants less pay and fewer benefits. Speaking to the Guardian in October, Trevor Bidelman, president of BCTGM Local3G and a fourth-generation employee at the Kellogg plant in Battle Creek, Michigan, described it as a “fight for our future”. “This is after just one year ago, we were hailed as heroes, as we worked through the pandemic, seven days a week, 16 hours a day. Now apparently, we are no longer heroes,” said Bidelman. “We don’t have weekends, really. We just work seven days a week, sometimes 100 to 130 days in a row. For 28 days, the machines run, then rest three days for cleaning. They don’t even treat us as well as they do their machinery.” Kellogg said it would now move forward with plans to start hiring permanent replacements for the striking workers. The company has already been using salaried employees and outside workers to keep the plants operating during the strike.

Calls for Boycott Grow After Kellogg Says It’s Permanently Replacing Strikers - Kellogg has announced that it is planning to permanently replace 1,400 workers who have been striking since October, after failing to offer a satisfactory deal to the union.Earlier this week, workers rejected a five-year deal that offered 3 percent raises and cost of living adjustments further along in the contract. The deal failed to remedy problems created by the two-tiered wage system that allows the company to offer less pay and worse benefits to newer hires, a tier that currently applies to about 30 percent of the cereal plants’ employees. “The members have spoken. The strike continues,” said Anthony Shelton, President of the Bakery, Confectionary, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union. “The International Union will continue to provide full support to our striking Kellogg’s members.”Workers have been demanding higher raises, saying that they often work more than 80 hours a week. According to union representatives, the company’s latest offer wouldn’t let new workers reach a higher, legacy pay level for as long as nine years. The offer also would have limited the proportion of plant workers who would be eligible for pay raises to only 3 percent.Kellogg has refused to comply with workers’ demands for over a yearnow — and workers at four plants in Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Tennessee have been striking since October 5. Labor advocates have been calling for a boycott of the company’s products while workers are striking, calls that have been amplified in light of Kellogg’s recent announcement. People on the “antiwork” subreddit have also been attempting to sabotage their hiring system so that potential replacement workers’ applications can’t get through.Sending in permanent replacement workers to disrupt a strike ispotentially illegal; companies aren’t allowed to replace workers who are protesting unfair labor practices and can only replace so-called economic strikers if there is a “legitimate and substantial business justification” for doing so, as the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo recently pointed out.However, there is no requirement for employers to prove that their justification for replacing the workers is legitimate, meaning that companies can do so essentially without recourse. Even when companies are found to be violating labor laws, punishments are often little more than a slap on the wrist.

Harmony Utility Contractor Sentenced for Violating Workplace Safety Regulation that Resulted in the Death of an Employee --- A business headquartered in Harmony, Pennsylvania, has been sentenced in federal court to three years’ probation and fined a total of $200,000 on its conviction of willfully violating a workplace safety regulation that resulted in the death of an employee, United States Attorney Cindy K. Chung announced today. United States District Judge Stephanie L. Haines imposed the sentence on Insight Pipe. LLC. According to information presented to the court, on April 2, 2018, an Insight Pipe work crew was installing pipe-liner at a job site located in Johnstown, Pennsylvania. A member of the crew had his hand on the side of a telehandler that was being to transfer a roll of liner from a box truck to an open manhole. At one point the transfer process, the telehandler’s forks came into contact with an overhead energized powerline. Upon the contact, the telehandler became energized and the worker was electrocuted to death. Under applicable federal safety regulations, the telehandler had to be operated in a manner to maintain a clearance of ten feet from the power line. Under the term of its plea agreement, Insight Pipe agreed to be placed on probation for a period of three years; pay a criminal fine of $20,000; and settle an administrative case with OSHA for $180,000. Prior to imposing sentence, Judge Haines acknowledged that Insight Pipe had taken measures to improve its safety protocol following the accident. Assistant United States Attorney Michael Leo Ivory prosecuted this case on behalf of the government. United States Attorney Chung commended the Occupational Health and Safety Administration for the investigation leading to the successful prosecution of Insight Pipe, LLC’

NBA: Unvaccinated players that travel to Canada won't be able to reenter US -The NBA informed unvaccinated players that they won’t be able to return to the United States after traveling to Canada, and will not be able to compete in scheduled games starting in 2022. In a league memo obtained by an ESPN journalist on Tuesday, the NBA stated that unvaccinated players will no longer be able to play in Toronto beginning Jan. 15. The Toronto Raptors are the only Canadian-based franchise in the 30-club association. The rule will also be in effect for unvaccinated players who travel outside of the U.S. during the league’s All-Star weekend, according to the league memo. The NBA’s latest COVID-19 policy comes after a new Canadian measure that requires visitors entering the country to be vaccinated. According to the law, a visitor who meets the criteria for limited exceptions will be allowed entry to Canada but will have to enter quarantine for two weeks, ESPN reported. This comes as notable players like Chicago Bulls forward DeMar DeRozan and Charlotte Hornets guards LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier have entered the league’s health and safety protocols over the weekend.

Illinois State Rep. Introduces Bill Requiring Unvaccinated Residents to Pay For Their Own COVID Care – An Illinois Democratic lawmaker has introduced legislation that would require individuals who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19 to pay for their own medical expenses, including hospital bills, if they contract the virus.State Rep. Jonathon Carroll filed HB 4259 on Monday in Springfield. The legislation would impact those residents who choose not to receive COVID-19 vaccines, and would require them to cover medical costs associated with contracting the virus, even if they have health insurance.Carroll says that the bill would serve as an incentive to residents to get vaccinated, and would help curb the spread of the virus in Illinois.“If you get life insurance and you’re a smoker, you pay a higher premium than those who don’t,” he said. “The insurance companies have things like this built-in already.It is unclear whether other House Democrats will support the measure, and no other co-sponsors were listed on the bill.Unsurprisingly, Illinois Republicans have pushed back against the measure, including Rep. Adam Niemerg, who has introduced his own legislation that he says would protect unvaccinated Illinoisans from being discriminated against for refusing the vaccine.“It gives folks freedom to make the decision for themselves,” he said. “The freedom to talk to their doctors and have the conversation on whether they want to or don’t want to take the COVID vaccine.”Other states have considered similar measures, including Nevada, which has implemented a surcharge for state workers, to the tune of $55 per month, if they are an unvaccinated employee enrolled in an insurance plan.

 Gender neutral restroom signs posted at Chicago public schools -Gender neutral signage went up in Chicago Public School restrooms last week, permitting students to use facilities that align with their gender identity.Under the new policy, announced by CPS last month, schools are required to display language outside of restrooms indicating they are open for use by “anyone who feels comfortable.”“This is a big step forward for gender equity for our students and staff,” CPS tweeted late last month from its official Twitter account.Signage identifies the fixtures in each restroom, like urinals and stalls, CPS said, and indicates whether it is a “gender-neutral,” men’s +,” or women's +” facility. Staff members continue to have staff-only restrooms available to them.Single-use restrooms for students are also available for anyone who prefers the added privacy, Mary Fergus, a CPS spokesperson, told Axios in a statement.CPS last month said its Office of Student Protections and Title IX is working on a “long-term plan to create more permanent signage for our bathrooms.”Critics of the initiative have been vocal online, and many worry it could put female students at a heightened risk of being assaulted in restrooms.“Who is making these ridiculous decisions?,” one Twitter user wrote on the platform last month, responding to CPS’ announcement. “Who is making sure girls are not harassed or bullied in these stalls? Where can my child get privacy to ensure no boy will try to peek at her while she is in a stall?”

 About 87K Wisconsin children have gotten COVID-19 vaccine, but some vaccinated parents are still hesitant when it comes to their kids - With just over a month since the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine received emergency authorization for kids ages 5 to 11, the Wisconsin Department of Health Services says about 87,000 Wisconsin children have gotten at least one dose of the two-dose series, out of about 500,000 children in the state in that age group. Some families booked an appointment or showed up at a clinic the moment the shots were available. They said getting shots for their kids would keep more vulnerable family members safe, or recounted frightening hospital experiences when kids had gotten COVID-19 earlier in the pandemic. Other families, though, are waiting. Even though the parents happily rolled up their sleeves for the vaccine when they were eligible, when it comes to their kids, they're weighing the risks differently. "I was in the category of Johnson and Johnson vaccine recipients who was kind of just waiting for 10 days to see if I was going to get a blood clot and die, and it was really scary," said Beth Redeker. "I could live with the choice that I made for myself, but if I did something that hurt my child, I felt like there would be so much more guilt — so I just wanted to wait and see."Redeker was one of several parents who responded to a request from WPR's WHYsconsin asking what made vaccinated parents hesitant to vaccinate their children. According to data released by the Kaiser Family Foundation right before the Pfizer vaccine was approved for younger children, 27 percent of parents across the country were eager to get their 5 to 11-year-old child vaccinated right away, one third wanted to wait and see how the vaccine was working, and 30 percent said they definitely wouldn't vaccinate their children. She and her 5-year-old son got COVID-19 in October 2020, and then he contracted it again in November 2021. "When it came to protecting my son, I mean, he'd already had COVID once and I didn't even know he had it," she said. "My son has proven healthy the first time, and so I just felt like, I wanted to wait a bit (to vaccinate)."

"Absolutely Appalling": Mother Says LA School Vaccinated Son Without Consent, Bribed With Pizza - A Los Angeles school has been accused of vaccinating a 13-year-old boy without his mother's consent. Maribel Duarte told KNBC-TV that her son was bribed with pizza and told not to tell her about it by an official at the Barack Obama Global Prep Academy in South Los Angeles. "The lady that gave him the shot and signed the paper told my son, 'Please don't say anything. I don't want to get in trouble,'" said Duarte, who showed the outlet a vaccine card indicating that her son accepted it. It indicates that two doses of Pfizer's vaccine was administered, one on Oct. 28, and the other on Nov. 18. Duarte says she's not anti-vax and is vaccinated herself, but that her son is a special case. "He has problems with asthma and allergy problems," she said, adding: "It hurt to know he got a shot without my permission, without knowing and without signing any papers for him to get the shot."

As Massachusetts COVID-19 cases rise sharply, public school infections at record high - Over the past several weeks, COVID-19 cases in Massachusetts have risen by more than 150 percent and hospitalizations have nearly doubled. The University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) model currently suggests that case numbers in the state will rise by about another third by the end of January. Ali Mokdad, a professor at IHME, told the Boston Globe that modelers have not yet fully factored in the waning protection provided by vaccines. The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) study tracking wastewater for COVID-19 recently found infections rising sharply, continuing to climb toward levels reached during last winter’s surge. On December 2 state education officials reported 8,513 new cases among public school students and 1,396 among school staff for the two-week period (including 7 or 8 school days, depending on the district) that ended December 1. The 9,909 total cases were sharply up from the state’s last report of 3,812 total cases, which included a single week (five school days) of data from November 11-17. The December 2 report showed that 0.93 percent of the state’s public school students and about 1 percent of staff members reported positive COVID-19 cases to their school administrators. The recent case of one Boston school exposes the dangerous, anti-science approach taken by state officials to the rising COVID-19 infections among students and staff. On November 9, Boston Public Schools (BPS) Superintendent Brenda Casselius announced that the Curley K-8 School in the Jamaica Plain neighborhood would close for 10 days. The closure followed inquiries by increasingly alarmed parents and a local radio station about a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases at the school. Prior to her announcement, Casselius had sought to downplay and cover up the seriousness of the outbreak, in coordination with the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE), which has maintained an effective ban on switching to remote learning as a response to the rise in COVID-19 infections. The day before the closing was announced, parent Rebecca Cline sent an email to officials, writing, “Families have relied on word of mouth and informal sharing of information regarding the nature of spread of this significant outbreak ... This experience has eroded my confidence and that of many parents regarding the current BPS response.”

 A White teacher taught White students about White privilege. It cost him his job. — A lifelong resident of Kingsport, Matthew Hawn was well aware his liberal views made him an outlier in his overwhelmingly White, mostly conservative community. But that had never mattered before. He had taught in the Sullivan County school system for 16 years without any trouble. And he had taught the class that got him fired, “Contemporary Issues,” for nearly a decade without a single parent complaint.Then at the start of last school year, he made a pronouncement during a discussion about police shootings that would derail his career. White privilege, he told his nearly all-White class, is “a fact.” Hawn apologized after at least one parent objected. But a few months later, he assigned the Ta-Nehisi Coates essay “The First White President,” spurring more parent complaints. This time school officials issued a letter of reprimand to Hawn for one-sided teaching.After that, Hawn promised to stay away from the topic. But in late April, a student mentioned White privilege during a class discussion about the trial of Derek Chauvin — the White Minneapolis police officer who murdered George Floyd by kneeling on the Black man’s neck — and Hawn could not help himself. He navigated to YouTube and pulled up “White Privilege,” a scathing and profane four-minute poetry performance by Kyla Jenée Lacey.“Oh, am I making you uncomfortable?” the Black writer demands at one point. “Try a cramped slave ship.” “I will probably get fired for showing this,” Hawn joked before hitting play. Less than a month later, he was. His firing comes amid a tsunami of conservative outrage about critical race theory, an academic framework for examining systemic racism in the United States that educators contend is rarely taught in public schools.Hawn said he’d never heard of critical race theory until he was accused of teaching it.But in May, the same month Hawn was fired, the Tennessee legislature passed a law banning it from its schools and forbidding educators from teaching that “an individual, by virtue of the individual’s race or sex, is inherently privileged, racist, sexist or oppressive.” At least 11 Republican-led states have now passed laws or approved resolutions censoring what educators can say about race in K-12 classrooms, according to a Washington Post analysis. Dozens more are considering similar policies.

Are public schools at risk of a death spiral? -Last month, my local school district decided — suddenly, on short notice, and over the objections of many parents — tolengthen Thanksgiving break from a few days to a full week. Families were given just a handful of days to make childcare arrangements for the unexpected extra vacation.School officials acknowledged the pain, but inisisted extra time off was needed for educators suffering from high rates ofburnout: A number of teachers had quit after the school year had begun, leaving administrators scrambling to cover their classes. "The attempt is to try to prevent more teachers from leaving the profession and trying to prevent that breaking point," said the district's superintendent.But teachers aren't the only ones dealing with burnout, and this kind of thing is happening all over. If it keeps up, it might end up wrecking America's public school system.The New York Times reports that schools across the country are reducing in-person classroom time. Detroit's schools are closed on Fridays, with only remote instruction offered. The same thing is happening in the suburbs of Salt Lake City. And schools in Seattle and Florida also extended their Thanksgiving breaks. As in my district, many of these reductions in classroom time are a reaction to pandemic-fueled teacher attrition. "What you hear from teachers is that it's been too much," said Randi Weingerten, who heads the American Federation of Teachers. "And they're trying the best that they can."Even schools that stay open are running into trouble. Last month, parents in a Minnesota school district protested after discovering their kids were being forced to eat lunch outside in cold temperatures as a COVID mitigation method. On Wednesday,New York Times columnist Michelle Goldberg tweeted that children in her daughter's school were largely being forced to do the same — and that the vaxxed kids allowed to eat inside weren't allowed to talk to each other. The potential for backlash here is obvious. Glenn Youngkin's recent win in Virginia's gubernatorial race, a largely unanticipated victory for Republicans, was partly driven by parental anger over COVID-driven school closures. The real risk isn't that Democrats will lose elections, however, but that families will look for alternatives to public schools, sending some districts into a death spiral. There are signs that has already started: Private schools — which tended to remain open during the first year of the pandemic — have seen their enrollments rise. Families with fewer resources may soon get to join the rush: Supreme Court justices indicated Wednesday they're prepared to rule that states which already make some funds available for kids who go to nonsectarian private schools must do the same for families who choose religious schools. That prospect makes progressives angry, but it suggests many parents will soon have expanded educational options.

When Idiocy Becomes Hardwired -At this point, virtually all of us over the age of forty have encountered enough “snowflakes” (those Millennials who have a meltdown if anything they say or believe is challenged) to understand that, increasingly, young people are being systemically coddled to the point that they cannot cope with their “reality” being questioned. The post-war baby boomers were the first “spoiled” generation, with tens of millions of children raised under the concept that, “I don’t want my children to have to experience the hardships that I faced growing up.” Those jurisdictions that prospered most (the EU, US, Canada, etc.) were, not coincidentally, the ones where this form of childrearing became most prevalent. The net result was the ’60s generation – young adults who could be praised for their idealism in pursuing the peace movement, the civil rights movement, and equal rights for women. But those same young adults were spoiled to the degree that many felt that it made perfect sense that they should attend expensive colleges but spend much of their study time pursuing sex, drugs, and rock and roll. Flunking out or dropping out was not seen as a major issue and very few of them felt any particular guilt about having squandered their parents’ life savings in the process. The boomer generation then became the yuppies as they hit middle age, and not surprisingly, many coddled their own children even more than they themselves had been coddled. As a result of ever-greater indulgence with each new generation of children, tens of millions of Millennials now display the result of parents doing all they can to remove every possible hardship from their children’s experience, no matter how small. Many in their generation never had to do chores, have a paper route, or get good grades in order to be given an exceptional reward, such as a cell phone. They grew to adulthood without any understanding of cause and effect, effort and reward. Theoretically, the outcome was to be a generation that was free from troubles, free from stress, who would have only happy thoughts. The trouble with this ideal was that, by the time they reached adulthood, many of the critical life’s lessons had been missing from their upbringing. In the years during which their brains were biologically expanding and developing, they had been hardwired to expect continued indulgence throughout their lives. Any thought that they had was treated as valid, even if it was insupportable in logic. And, today, we’re witnessing the fruits of this upbringing. Tens of millions of Millennials have never learned the concept of humility. They’re often unable to cope with their thoughts and perceptions being questioned and, in fact, often cannot think outside of themselves to understand the thoughts and perceptions of others. They tend to be offended extremely easily and, worse, don’t know what to do when this occurs. They have such a high perception of their own self-importance that they can’t cope with being confronted, regardless of the validity of the other person’s reasoning. How they feel is far more important than logic or fact. Hypersensitive vulnerability is a major consequence, but a greater casualty is Truth. Truth has gone from being fundamental to being something “optional” – subjective or relative and of lesser importance than someone being offended or hurt. Of course, it would be easy to simply fob these young adults off as emotional mutants – spiteful narcissists – who cannot survive school without the school’s provision of safe spaces, cookies, puppies, and hug sessions. Previous generations of students (my own included) were often intimidated when presented with course books that had titles like Elements of Calculus and Analytic Geometry. But such books had their purpose. They were part of what had to be dealt with in order to be prepared for the adult world of ever-expanding technology. In addition, it was expected that any student be prepared to learn (at university, if he had not already done so at home), to consider all points of view, including those less palatable. In debating classes, he’d be expected to take any side of any argument and argue it as best he could. In large measure, these requirements have disappeared from institutions of higher learning, and in their place, colleges provide colouring books, Play-Doh, and cry closets. At the same time as a generation of “snowflakes” is being created, the same jurisdictions that are most prominently creating them (the above-mentioned EU, US, Canada, etc.) are facing, not just a generation of young adults who have a meltdown when challenged in some small way. They’re facing an international economic and political meltdown of epic proportions.

Detroit teachers organize sickouts to demand school safety and Covid protections - Teachers and support staff at The School at Marygrove (TSM), a public school in Detroit, are engaging in a sickout to demand improved safety measures after the Oxford school shootings, and virtual-only classes to protect educators, 330 students and their families from COVID-19. The protest in Detroit is part of the growing resistance of educators in the US and internationally, including the one-day strike by 50,000 New South Wales teachers in Australia on Monday. The job action, which began Monday morning independently of the Detroit Federation of Teachers (DFT), was triggered by the refusal of school authorities to provide basic security measures, like classroom door locks, largely due to the rushed and haphazard construction project in northwestern Detroit. TSM is being expanded into a K-12 school and teaching college on the campus of the former Catholic college, which closed in 2019. But the educators’ sense of vulnerability to another tragic school shooting has only heightened their concern and anger over the criminal policy of keeping in-person instruction going as COVID-19 spreads throughout schools in Detroit and Michigan. The sickout at TSM follows the November 17 walkout by students and teachers at Martin Luther King High School, on the city’s east side, after an outbreak at the school. On Monday, the protesting TSM educators issued an open letter outlining their grievances and demands to Detroit Public Schools Community District Superintendent Nikolai Vitti, the school board, the Barton Malow construction firm and the co-sponsors of the “social justice” and science and technology-based school, including the Kresge Foundation and the University of Michigan. Pointing to the “rising COVID infection rates in our local community, the minimal action taken to date, and the recent school shooting at Oxford High School,” the educators demand that “those responsible for our creation and maintenance … remedy our concerns regarding the health and safety issues that persist in our school community.” The letter notes that the inability of teachers to lock their classroom doors, the lack of a school-wide lockdown system and few if any security guards have left the staff “unprotected and in harm’s way daily.” It continues, “In addition to these security concerns, we are also worried about the significant increase of COVID cases and hospitalizations. COVID infection rates are climbing in Michigan and in our own district and hospitalizations are up in Wayne County. Parents, staff, and students are rightly concerned.”

Hundreds Of Mathematicians, Scientists, Sign Open-Letter Against Social-Justice-Based Curriculum - More than 700 mathematicians and scientists have signed an open letter denouncing recent “trends” in K-12 mathematics education that proponents argue will close achievement gaps and damage America’s global competitiveness. “We write to express our alarm over recent trends in K-12 mathematics education in the United States,” the “ Open Letter on K-12 Mathematics,” which has 746 signatories as of Dec. 6, says.. Signatories include several public school math teachers from California, numerous professors at University of California schools, including UC-Davis and UC-Berkeley, and staff at leading U.S. universities for hard science, including Stanford, Berkeley, CalTech, and MIT. It comes after the California Department of Education this year postponed implementation of a new math framework that aims to keep students learning at the same level, citing equity, following widespread opposition to the curriculum. Opponents have said the reforms would discourage students who speak English as a second language. The letter cites the California Mathematics Framework as particularly concerning, describing the recent reforms as “well-intentioned approaches to reform mathematics education,” but warns they may have “unintended consequences.” While the California Mathematics Framework may superficially reduce disparities at the high school level, the efforts are merely “kicking the can” to college and will ultimately place K-12 public school students at a disadvantage compared with their international and private-school peers, the letter says. “Such frameworks aim to reduce achievement gaps by limiting the availability of advanced mathematical courses to middle schoolers and beginning high schoolers,” the open letter says. “Such a reform…may lead to a de facto privatization of advanced mathematics K-12 education and disproportionately harm students with fewer resources.”

University of Florida researchers pressured to destroy COVID-19 data, told not to criticize DeSantis: report - Researchers at the University of Florida allegedly felt pressured to delete COVID-19 data while working on a study for an undisclosed state entity, according to a report released on Monday by the Faculty Senate committee. The report stated that staff felt "external pressure to destroy" data and "barriers to accessing and analyzing" data in a timely manner. The document added that staff said there were "barriers to publication of scientific research which inhibited the ability of faculty to contribute scientific findings during a world-wide pandemic." Other challenges reported to the committee included "palpable reticence and even fear on the part of faculty to speak up on these issues." In addition, faculty "often engaged in self-censorship and chose not to 'rock the boat' for fear of retaliation," according to the report. University of Florida employees were reportedly told "not to criticize the Governor of Florida [Republican Ron DeSantis] or UF policies related to COVID-19 in media interactions." However, the Faculty Senate committee said that they "did not have the resources or the time to fully investigate these reports or their legal and policy implications. Faculty did express discontent about political interference with our mission, that academic freedom is under attack, and that we will likely lose faculty as a result." The six-person panel was convened to investigate academic freedom issues after the university decided to bar three professors from testifying in a federal lawsuit against the state over a recently enacted elections bill. A spokesperson from the University of Florida did not have any further comment on the report when reached for additional information by The Hill. A spokesperson for DeSantis told The Hill that "The report referenced contains plenty of unsourced allegations and innuendo, but zero evidence that Governor DeSantis or anyone connected to the governor’s office has exerted or attempted to exert improper influence on UF. This is because it did not happen." A fourth University of Florida professor alleged in November that the school rejected his request to testify against state leaders and provide his expertise on the impact of COVID-19 on children.

Alumni Withhold Donations, Demand Colleges Enforce Free Speech - (soundcloud podcast) University alumni are putting their foot down when it comes to free speech. Doug Belkin from the Wall Street Journal gives us look. 

Pandemic stress weighs heavily on Gen Z: AP-NORC, MTV poll - Isolation. Anxiety. Uncertainty. The stresses of the coronavirus pandemic have taken a toll on Americans of all ages, but a new poll finds that teens and young adults have faced some of the heaviest struggles as they come of age during a time of extreme turmoil.Overall, more than a third of Americans ages 13 to 56 cite the pandemic as a major source of stress, and many say it has made certain parts of their lives harder. But when it comes to education, friendships and dating, the disruption has had a pronounced impact among Generation Z, according to a new survey from MTV Entertainment Group and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.Among Americans in Gen Z — the survey included ages 13 to 24 — 46% said the pandemic has made it harder to pursue their education or career goals, compared with 36% of Millennials and 31% in Generation X. There was a similar gap when it came to dating and romantic relationships, with 40% of Gen Z saying it became harder.Forty-five percent of Gen Z also reported greater difficulty maintaining good relationships with friends, compared with 39% of Gen X Americans. While many Millennials also said friendships were harder, Gen Z was less likely than Millennials to say the pandemic actually made that easier, 18% vs. 24%.

There’s now a formal name, and help, for prolonged grief. -A year after her mother died from Covid, Fiana Garza Tulip held a small memorial service on a Texas beach that her family had visited countless times when she was a child. As she and her brother dropped a wreath of yellow roses into the waves, she expected to cry. But the tears did not come. She felt only guilt for appearing to be unmoved, heartless even.Ms. Garza Tulip, 41, had endured so many losses — two miscarriages, and the virus taking her mother, uncle and great-aunt. It also debilitated her father. “I think the one thing I miss the most is feeling anything,” she said recently of life after the series of tragedies.She had thought the lack of emotion meant she was not grieving, unaware that numbness can be a symptom of grief. When a therapist diagnosed her with prolonged grief disorder, or P.G.D., a newly recognized condition, Ms. Garza Tulip, who lives in New Jersey, was relieved that her suffering had a name.Recently added to the upcoming revision of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, or D.S.M., prolonged grief disorder leaves people feeling stuck in an endless cycle of mourning that can last for years or even decades, severely impairing daily life, relationships and job performance.“This is about a lost relationship that was central to who you are,” said Holly Prigerson, co-director of the Center for Research on End-of-Life Care at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York. “Now this person is gone, it’s ‘I don’t know who I am anymore.’”Symptoms can include emotional numbness; intense loneliness; avoidance of reminders the person is not there; feelings that life is meaningless; difficulty with reintegration into life; extreme emotional pain, sorrow or anger; disbelief about the death; and a feeling that a part of oneself has died. In the immediate aftermath of a death, such feelings are considered normal, but when several symptoms persist nearly daily for a year, it can be a sign of prolonged grief disorder.

 How has the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the diagnosis of new cancers? - Restrictions in access to care during the COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions in the treatment of cancer and other conditions. A new study now indicates that the pandemic also likely caused new cancer diagnoses to be delayed, a situation that could lead to worse prognoses for patients. The findings are published by Wiley online in CANCER, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Cancer Society. For the study, a team led by Brajesh K. Lal, MD, of the Veterans Affairs examined data from more than 9 million US veterans at 1,244 VA medical facilities. From 2018 through 2020, there were 3.9 million procedures used to diagnose cancer and 251,647 new cancers diagnosed. The researchers found that procedures to diagnose cancer were used less frequently in 2020. There were also fewer new diagnoses of cancer in 2020. These deficits varied by geographic location and by cancer type.Colonoscopies (to detect colorectal cancer) in 2020 decreased by 45% compared with annual averages in 2018 through 2019, whereas prostate biopsies (to detect prostate cancer), chest computed tomography scans (to detect lung cancer), and cystoscopies (to detect bladder cancer) decreased by 29%, 10%, and 21%, respectively. Colonoscopies had the largest deficits across the country: in 29% of states, fewer than half of colonoscopies were performed in 2020 compared with earlier years.New cancer diagnoses in 2020 decreased by 13% to 23%, depending on the cancer type.“The disruption in non-emergency health care during the peak of the pandemic was intentional and necessary,” said Dr. Lal. “As we enter the recovery phase, we hope that our work will help physicians, hospitals, and health care organizations anticipate the extent to which they have fallen behind in their efforts to diagnose new cancers. It will also help them allocate requisite resources and time to re-engage with patients.”

COVID-19 spread more by men, loud talkers: study - Men and people who speak at louder volumes more easily spread COVID-19, according to researchers at Colorado State University (CSU). In a November study published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology Letters, a multidisciplinary team at the school examined respiratory aerosol emissions from a panel of healthy individuals of varying age and gender while talking and singing in a controlled laboratory setting. The group measured particle number concentrations between 0.25 and 33 micrometers from 63 participants ages 12-61 years old, and voice volume and exhaled CO2 (carbon dioxide) levels were monitored. Measurements were taken while subjects were both masked and unmasked inside the lab of professor and study co-author John Volckens. Researchers concluded that singing produced 77% more aerosol than talking, adults produced 62% more aerosol than minors and males produced 34% more aerosol than females. However, after accounting for participant voice volume and exhaled CO2 measurements in linear models, the age and sex differences were “attenuated and no longer statistically significant.” Results from wind instrument-playing experiments are pending further data analysis and peer review. The study was originally developed early on during the COVID-19 pandemic in an effort to determine what people in performing arts can do to safely return to the stage. “Is singing worse than talking when it comes to how many particles are being emitted? Yes, according to the study. And, the louder one talks or sings, the worse the emissions,” the university said in a news post on its website, detailing the study. “If there were significant differences after accounting for CO2 between males and females and kids, then you’d have to know how many males, females, and minors were in a room to estimate transmission risks,” Volckens said in a statement. “Our data suggest that you don’t need to know that if you just measure CO2 and noise levels, because those measures are an equalizer for these demographic differences.”

Omicron coronavirus variant may cause a global wave of covid-19 cases - There is growing evidence that the new omicron variant of the coronavirus is capable of spreading rapidly in populations with immunity against other coronavirus variants. It has already reached many countries and appears poised to cause a huge wave of infections around the world. The big unknown is whether omicron is more or less likely to cause severe disease and deaths. Aris Katzourakis at the University of Oxford says he very much doubts the variant’s mutations will result in decreased severity, but that it is too early to tell.In South Africa, where the variant was first detected, cases are rising even faster than during previous waves, with case numbers doubling every three to four days.The rapid spread in South Africa doesn’t necessarily reflect what will happen elsewhere. The beta variant that was first spotted in South Africa and caused its second wave didn’t result in similar spikes in cases in other nations. However, there are signs that omicron is already taking off in different countries too.For instance, the UK is seeing a rapid rise in so-called S-gene dropouts in PCR covid-19 tests, a phenomenon that happens when a variant has certain mutations in the gene for its spike protein. This is likely to be due to omicron. Denmark, which does a lot of sequencing, has already detected nearly 200 cases of covid-19 caused by this variant.The main reason omicron is spreading so fast appears to be that it is excellent at evading prior immunity. Researchers in South Africa have found that the risk of reinfection is much higher with omicron. This suggests that the risk of vaccinated people getting infected is also much greater than it is with delta. Initial case reports back this up. For instance, of 11 omicron cases in Israel so far, six are in people who had had three doses of the Pfizer vaccine.

WHO says that Omicron could become the dominant variant globally - According to a press release on Friday by the World Health Organization (WHO), the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529), first detected in South Africa in early November, has now been found in 38 countries across all six WHO regions. Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, WHO’s chief scientist, explained that though “it is possible that it [Omicron] could become the dominant variant [globally],” Delta still accounts for 99 percent of all infections worldwide. Cases globally continue to surge, with more than 266 million cumulative reported cases and over 5.27 million deaths. Delta continues to take its toll on the populations of North America and Europe. The daily average number of cases has continued its steady climb for nearly two months, reaching more than 600,000 cases per day worldwide. Deaths have held constant at a horrific rate of around 7,000 per day. In the United States, cumulative cases will top 50 million this week. Deaths are approaching 810,000, according to the Worldometer COVID dashboard. Meanwhile, the number of daily COVID cases is fast approaching 150,000 once more. The seven-day average of cases is over 106,000, and the rate of daily deaths has turned upwards, nearing 1,200 on a daily average. In Europe, more than 88 million COVID cases and 1.56 million deaths have been reported. Weekly cases have been rising for more than nine straight weeks, with close to 400,000 cases on a daily average. Though there are indications that deaths have plateaued, they remain disastrously high at around 30,000 per week or more than 4,200 per day. In East Asia, countries that had been able to control the coronavirus up to now face their most dire period in the pandemic. South Korea had a single-day high of 5,352 cases and 70 deaths on December 4. Infections are growing exponentially there, and deaths are rapidly rising. Further south, Vietnam and Thailand continue to battle recent surges. Despite these developments, the world is focused on the current concerns raised by the highly mutated and transmissible Omicron variant. As bad as Delta has been, the incredibly rapid rates of infections caused by Omicron in South Africa have gripped public attention. According to the initial contact with this variant, it has far outpaced any of its previous predecessors.

Omicron's 'wacko' combination of mutations has scientists split over whether it developed in humans or animals --Omicron looks odd, even to scientists who study coronavirus strains.The variant has spread to nearly 30 countries since it was first detected in Botswana roughly three weeks ago. Scientists are trying to make sense of its concerning number of mutations, which could make Omicron more transmissible than Delta, rendering vaccines less effective, or leading to more severe disease. For now, those answers are pending.Omicron doesn't resemble common coronavirus variants like Alpha or Delta (still the world's dominant strain), and many of its strange mutations haven't been spotted in other variants before. Scientists estimate that Omicron's closest ancestors date back to mid-2020. "It's not the son or daughter of Delta," Andrew Read, who studies the evolution of infectious diseases at Pennsylvania State University, told Insider. "It branched off earlier from the human lineages, so it has been somewhere for awhile. So where's that reservoir? Was it an individual person or an individual animal or a population of animals or population of people that haven't been properly sampled?One of the most promising theories is that Omicron emerged in an immunocompromised host, such as a person with an untreated HIV infection. People with weakened immune systems are common reservoirs for mutations, since their bodies often struggle to clear viruses, allowing the pathogen to replicate for months.The theory may explain why Omicron contains "such a wacko combination of mutations," Charity Dean, a former official at the California Department of Public Health, told Insider. "It's probably more likely that this was the result of ongoing molecular evolution inside a single host that spilled over into the population," she said.But some scientists aren't ready to rule out the idea that Omicron developed in an animal species. Robert Garry, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Tulane Medical School, noted to STAT News this week that Omicron carries several key mutations that could have helped the coronavirus infect rodents. "It could be that the virus moved into a wild animal population and then we didn't see it for a while and it came back — that's not a crazy hypothesis," Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told Insider. "But we don't have as much evidence of that."

 Pfizer CEO says omicron appears milder, but could lead to more mutations - Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on Tuesday said cases caused by the COVID-19 omicron variant appear to be milder than those caused by previous strains of the virus, but added that omicron seems to spread faster and may cause more mutations to crop up.“I don’t think it’s good news to have something that spreads fast,” Bourla said while speaking at The Wall Street Journal's CEO Council Summit. “Spreads fast means it will be in billions of people and another mutation may come. You don’t want that.”Anecdotal reports from South Africa have pointed toward omicron cases being milder, though health experts have been quick to point out that early cases of the new variant appear to have been clustered in young people, who are less likely to develop severe illness from any strain of the virus. However, Bourla stressed that more work must be done before omicron is better understood. Pfizer is currently looking into whether or not COVID-19 vaccines are less effective against the new variant and should have some more information in the next few weeks, according to Bourla.

Fauci says early reports encouraging about omicron variant - U.S. health officials said Sunday that while the omicron variant of the coronavirus is rapidly spreading throughout the country, early indications suggest it may be less dangerous than delta, which continues to drive a surge of hospitalizations. President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told CNN’s “State of the Union” that scientists need more information before drawing conclusions about omicron’s severity. Reports from South Africa, where it emerged and is becoming the dominant strain, suggest that hospitalization rates have not increased alarmingly. “Thus far, it does not look like there’s a great degree of severity to it,” Fauci said. “But we have really got to be careful before we make any determinations that it is less severe or it really doesn’t cause any severe illness, comparable to delta.” Fauci said the Biden administration is considering lifting travel restrictions against noncitizens entering the United States from several African countries. They were imposed as the omicron variant exploded in the region, but U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has blasted such measures as “travel apartheid.” “Hopefully we’ll be able to lift that ban in a quite reasonable period of time,” Fauci said. “We all feel very badly about the hardship that has been put on not only on South Africa but the other African countries.” Omicron had been detected in about a third of U.S. states by Sunday, including in the Northeast, the South, the Great Plains and the West Coast. Wisconsin, Missouri and Louisiana were among the latest states to confirm cases. But delta remains the dominant variant, making up more than 99% of cases and driving a surge of hospitalizations in the north. National Guard teams have been sent to help overwhelmed hospitals in western New York, and Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker issued an emergency order requiring any hospitals facing limited patient capacity to reduce scheduled procedures that are not urgent.

WHO says no deaths reported from Omicron yet as Covid variant spreads - The Omicron variant has been detected in at least 38 countries but no deaths have yet been reported, the World Health Organization has said, amid warnings that it could damage the global economic recovery. The United States and Australia became the latest countries to confirm locally transmitted cases of the variant, as Omicron infections pushed South Africa’s total cases past 3 million. The WHO has warned it could take weeks to determine how infectious the variant is, whether it causes more severe illness and how effective treatments and vaccines are against it. “We’re going to get the answers that everybody out there needs,” the WHO emergencies director, Michael Ryan, said. The WHO said on Friday it had still not seen any reports of deaths related to Omicron, but the new variant’s spread has led to warnings that it could cause more than half of Europe’s Covid cases in the next few months. The new variant could also slow global economic recovery, just as the Delta strain did, the International Monetary Fund chief, Kristalina Georgieva, said on Friday. “Even before the arrival of this new variant, we were concerned that the recovery, while it continues, is losing somewhat momentum,” she said. “A new variant that may spread very rapidly can dent confidence.”

CDC Chief Says Omicron Cases in US Mostly Mild So Far — More than 40 people in the U.S. have been found to be infected with the omicron variant so far, and more than three-quarters of them had been vaccinated, the chief of the CDC said Wednesday. But she said nearly all of them were only mildly ill. In an interview with The Associated Press, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the data is very limited and the agency is working on a more detailed analysis of what the new mutant form of the coronavirus might hold for the United States. "What we generally know is the more mutations a variant has, the higher level you need your immunity to be. ... We want to make sure we bolster everybody's immunity. And that's really what motivated the decision to expand our guidance," Walensky said, referencing the recent approval of boosters for all adults. She said "the disease is mild" in almost all of the cases seen so far, with reported symptoms mainly cough, congestion and fatigue. One person was hospitalized, but no deaths have been reported, CDC officials said. Some cases can become increasingly severe as days and weeks pass, and Walensky noted that the data is a very early, first glimpse of U.S. omicron infections. The earliest onset of symptoms of any of the first 40 or so cases was November 15, according to the CDC.

Bill Gates Believes "Acute Phase" Of Pandemic Will Finally End In 2022 - Now that millions of people are beginning to question all the 'FUD' surrounding the omicron variant, Bill Gates, the world's de facto vaccine czar during the early days of the outbreak (before his professional reputation was sullied by the scandal surrounding his divorce from Melinda Gates) is re-emerging to try again to convince as many people as possible to get vaccinated. The Microsoft co-founder said 2021 didn't bring as much improvement in the COVID situation as he had hoped. With more COVID deaths this year than in 2020, the delta variant and challenges with vaccine uptake, progress has been underwhelming, Gates wrote in a "year in review" post on his blog Tuesday. Scientists have been saying for months that COVID will likely remain endemic in the human population, but that hasn't stopped some governments from ratcheting up restrictions and requirements regarding masking and vaccinations. And the blame, of course, lies with the millions of people who have shunned COVID vaccines, Gates' favorite target for criticism. "I underestimated how tough it would be to convince people to take the vaccine and continue to use masks," Gates wrote. To be sure, he also had some optimistic things to say. For example, Gates wrote that he expects the "acute phase" of the pandemic to finally come to an end in 2022 as the number of confirmed cases in the US nears 50MM. Gates added that there's "no question" the omicron variant is "concerning"...except for the growing chorus of skepticism, and an initial batch of data out of South Africa suggesting the variant is more mild than delta.

Healthcare Chief Says Omicron "May Signal The End Of COVID-19" -The CEO of South Africa’s largest private healthcare network says that the Omicron variant is “so mild” that it “may signal the end of COVID-19.” According to Richard Friedland, chief executive officer of Netcare Ltd., the early days of the variant suggest there is absolutely no need to panic and that it might actually be a good thing. “If in the second and third wave we’d seen these levels of positivity to tests conducted, we would have seen very significant increases in hospital admissions and we’re not seeing that. In our primary care clinics it is mainly people under 30-years-old,” he said. “So I actually think there is a silver lining here and this may signal the end of Covid-19, with it attenuating itself to such an extent that it’s highly contagious, but doesn’t cause severe disease. That’s what happened with Spanish flu.” “We are seeing breakthrough infections of people who have been vaccinated, but the infections we’re seeing are very mild to moderate. So for health care workers who have had boosters, it’s mostly mild. I think this whole thing has been so poorly communicated and so much panic generated.” Friedland’s comments won’t be welcomed by Big Pharma, which continues to make vast profits from endless booster vaccines. Not will his remarks be amplified by the corporate media, which has enjoyed a huge boost in ratings from endless COVID fearmongering. However, the CEO’s statement correlates with what other health experts on the ground in South Africa have said about Omicron.

The Omicron variant appeared to spread between two fully vaccinated people in separate hotel rooms in Hong Kong, early research suggests -- The Omicron variant of the coronavirus appears to have spread between two fully vaccinated people who were staying in separate rooms across the hall from each other in a Hong Kong quarantine hotel, researchers say.The early findings raise concerns about how transmissible the new variant may be. Researchers at the University of Hong Kong announced the findings in an online research letter, which has not been finalized, in the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal on Friday.According to the research letter, one of the individuals arrived in Hong Kong from South Africa on November 11, while the second person arrived in the city from Canada a day earlier.Both men were fully vaccinated against COVID-19 with Pfizer's two-dose shot and had tested negative for the virus within 72 hours before arrival in Hong Kong, the report said."On arrival at the Hong Kong airport, both case-patients stayed in the same quarantine hotel and had rooms across the corridor from each other on the same floor," according to the research letter.According to the research, which cited closed-circuit television camera footage, the individuals infected with Omicron never left their hotel rooms during the recent quarantine period."No items were shared between rooms, and other persons did not enter either room," the report said, noting that the only time the two people opened their hotel doors was to collect food that was placed outside of each door."Airborne transmission across the corridor is the most probable mode of transmission," the researchers wrote, adding that such a spread could hint the virus is more infectious.The person who arrived from South Africa tested positive for the coronavirus without symptoms on November 13, the report said, adding that he was taken to a hospital and isolated the next day.The other man developed "mild symptoms" on November 17, the report said. He tested positive for the virus the next day and was also taken to a hospital.Edwards told Insider that the ventilation in the hotel, along with the humidity and temperature in the corridor and the two rooms, could have affected viral transmission between the two men."Should the hotel be air-conditioned, and notably the relative humidity low, the exhaled droplets of the South African may have been even smaller [than one-thousandth of a millimeter] — and passage under doors and through hallways is easily achievable," Edwards wrote in an email to Insider.Imperfect ventilation in the corridor, or even a draft caused by open windows in the rooms, could add to the probability of viral spread from room to room.

 Oslo Omicron Outbreak a Textbook Aerosol-Driven Superspreader Event; Biden “Vax-Only” Policy Totters by Lambert Strether - Norway returned to “normal daily life,” as their Prime Minister Erna Solberg put it, on September 25, 2021. Normal life didn’t begin well. From the Associated Press, “Rowdy celebrations erupt in Norway as COVID restrictions end”:Police in Norway on Sunday reported dozens of disturbances and violent clashes including mass brawls in the Nordic country’s big cities after streets, bars, restaurants and nightclubs were filled with people. Long lines were seen outside Oslo’s nightclubs, bars and restaurants late Saturday and police registered at least 50 fights and disturbances during the night. And normal life didn’t continue well. Here is Norway’s case count since that date: Most of these cases are Delta, but now surely some are Omicron: Now, normal life has gotten worse. From the Wall Street Journal, “Omicron Cases at Norway Christmas Party Provide Clues on New Variant’s Spread“: Before Scatec AS A, a Norway-based renewable-energy company, hosted the annual holiday party [on November 26], it took all the major safety precautions, said Stian Tvede Karlsen, a company spokesman. Only vaccinated employees were invited. All had to take a rapid test the day before. The party, at Louise, an upscale Oslo restaurant serving seafood and Scandinavian fare, included about 120 people, several of whom had just returned from South Africa, where the company has a solar-panel project. More than half of those present have since tested positive for Covid-19, with at least 13 confirmed to have the new variant in what appears to be the world’s biggest Omicron outbreak outside southern Africa—and a glimpse into how it fares in a highly-vaccinated population. The cluster is remarkable because it took place in a bubble of immunized people, in a country where more than 80% of adults are fully vaccinated. (As it turns out, 100 of the 120 were infected: 83%.) Louise’s was, of course, a superspreading event. As the Journal says: An hours long party with lots of guests talking to each other in a closed, indoor and insulated environment would make for an ideal superspreader event, even for earlier variants of the coronavirus, said Alexandra Phelan, an assistant professor of global and public-health law and ethics at Georgetown University. And so Norway’s normal has become the abnormal once again:From Friday morning, mask mandates that had been lifted are back in place, private indoor gatherings are limited to fewer than 100 people, office workers are encouraged to work from home, and bars are operating at reduced capacity.The capital, Oslo, has canceled a major Christmas gathering and other holiday events are being called off as well.(Of course, it’s hard to imagine the United States doing any of these things when our time comes.) In this post, I’m going to unpack the notion of superspreading (and superspreaders)[1]. This may help you gracefully bow out from your office Christmas Party, if you have one. Superspreading also has implications for the Biden Administration’s Vax Only policy, as we shall see. Here is Nature’s image of a prime venue for a superspreading event: As public health Ontario writes in “COVID-19 Transmission Through Large Respiratory Droplets and Aerosols… What We Know So Far“: Indoor settings are a predominant risk factor for transmission. In a systematic review of 5 studies, Bulfone et al. (2020) reported that the odds of indoor transmission were 18.7 times (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.0–57.9) higher than outdoor settings, and less than 10% of infections occurred outdoors.

Australia discovers 'omicron-like' variant that is harder to detect - Australia found an "omicron-like" coronavirus strain in a traveler from South Africa that was harder to detect than the highly mutated COVID-19 variant identified late last month.Australian officials in the state of Queensland told Bloomberg the new lineage found on Wednesday shares half of the genetic structure of omicron, the variant that has sent the world scrambling to stop its spread since it was first detected in South Africa on Nov. 25.It's unclear what the discovery means. Viruses often mutate and can share similar genetic codes. Health officials told the news outlet they "don’t know enough about it as to what that means then as far as clinical severity, vaccine effectiveness."Omicron is still being studied and has yet to be deemed more virulent or dangerous than other variants, including the now-dominant delta strain.But omicron had spread to countries across at least five continents within a week of its discovery, contributing to concern that it could be much more transmissible than previous strains.One study revealed the variant shares genetic material with the coronavirus associated with the common cold and could be more virulent as a result.Australia, which has seen more than 2,000 deaths related to COVID-19, delayed re-opening its borders last month over concerns with the new coronavirus strain.

Symptoms, vaccine evasion and a new 'offshoot': What we know now about the Covid omicron variant - In the last fortnight, experts have scrambled to gain more of an understanding about the new heavily mutated variant, and what kind of symptoms and illness it can cause and whether it undermines the vaccines that have already been developed. It's increasingly apparent that omicron is already spreading worldwide, however, and there have been reports of community transmission over the last two weeks, signaling that the omicron variant has likely been circulating more widely, and for longer, than initially thought.The U.S. CDC said Tuesday that the new variant has now been found in 50 countries and 19 U.S. states. The first known sample of omicron dates to Nov. 9 and was found in South Africa. The WHO stated that infections in the country had increased steeply coinciding with the detection of the B.1.1.529 variant, which omicron is also known as, and that phenomenon is being seen elsewhere now.Although it's still early days and much more data needs to be collected, initial anecdotal evidence was somewhat reassuring regarding omicron, suggesting it caused milder Covid symptoms.The South African doctor who first spotted the virus said she had seen "extremely mild" symptoms among her own patients, including fatigue and a "scratchy throat" but no cough or loss of taste or smell — symptoms that have been associated with previous strains of the coronavirus. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on Tuesday said the omicron variant appears to be milder than previous strains, but also seems to spread faster and could lead to more mutations in the future.Parts of South Africa have seen an increase in hospitalizations linked to the omicron variant. A report from the South African Medical Research Council, released Saturday, detailing the experiences of several hospitals in the Gauteng province (where omicron was first detected) suggested that the strain is causing milder illness, with fewer patients requiring oxygen or intensive care than seen in previous waves.One of the biggest questions for experts, government officials and vaccine makers is whether the omicron variant could undo the work that Covid vaccines have done so far to reduce the risk of severe infection, hospitalization and death. The CEOs of Moderna and Pfizer, who have both created widely used vaccines, said it could take weeks before they had clarity on whether their shots are effective against omicron.Early data is not so encouraging, with South African scientists stating Tuesday that omicron significantly reduces the antibody protection generated by Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine, according to a small preliminary study. Still, people who have recovered from the virus and received a booster shot will likely have more protection from severe disease, the study showed.Pfizer and BioNTech said Wednesday that three doses of their vaccine provide a high level of protection against the omicron variant with a booster shot increasing antibody protection 25-fold compared with the initial two-dose series, according to a preliminary lab study.Pfizer's CEO, Albert Bourla, told The Wall Street Journal during an interview at the paper's CEO Council Summit that he expects the number of confirmed omicron cases to surge from dozens to millions over the next few weeks, stating, "We will have a good understanding let's say before the year-end as to what exactly it means for clinical manifestation." Last but not least, testing for omicron is a challenge facing health officials who are trying to gauge the spread of the variant as quickly as possible. WHO noted that "this variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning. Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other VOCs."The WHO noted that current Covid PCR tests continue to detect this variant, largely thanks to a quirk in the variant's genetic structure. However, there are reports now of a new "offshoot" of omicron that lacks the deletion that allows PCR tests to spot it, making it potentially far harder to track.

Omicron v. delta: Battle of coronavirus mutants is critical - As the omicron coronavirus variant spreads in southern Africa and pops up in countries all around the world, scientists are anxiously watching a battle play out that could determine the future of the pandemic. Can the latest competitor to the world-dominating delta overthrow it?Some scientists, poring over data from South Africa and the United Kingdom, suggest omicron could emerge the victor. “It’s still early days, but increasingly, data is starting to trickle in, suggesting that omicron is likely to outcompete delta in many, if not all, places,” said Dr. Jacob Lemieux, who monitors variants for a research collaboration led by Harvard Medical School. But others said Monday it’s too soon to know how likely it is that omicron will spread more efficiently than delta, or, if it does, how fast it might take over. “Especially here in the U.S., where we’re seeing significant surges in delta, whether omicron’s going to replace it I think we’ll know in about two weeks,” said Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. Many critical questions about omicron remain unanswered, including whether the virus causes milder or more severe illness and how much it might evade immunity from past COVID-19 illness or vaccines. On the issue of spread, scientists point to what’s happening in South Africa, where omicron was first detected. Omicron’s speed in infecting people and achieving near dominance in South Africa has health experts worried that the country is at the start of a new wave that may come to overwhelm hospitals. The new variant rapidly moved South Africa from a period of low transmission, averaging less than 200 new cases per day in mid-November, to more than 16,000 per day over the weekend. Omicron accounts for more than 90% of the new cases in Gauteng province, the epicenter of the new wave, according to experts. The new variant is rapidly spreading and achieving dominance in South Africa’s eight other provinces. “The virus is spreading extraordinarily fast,” said Willem Hanekom, director of the Africa Health Research Institute. “If you look at the slopes of this wave that we’re in at the moment, it’s a much steeper slope than the first three waves that South Africa experienced. This indicates that it’s spreading fast and it may therefore be a very transmissible virus.”

Plant-based vaccine shows high efficacy against COVID-19 - The world’s first plant-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate has proven to be more than 75% effective against preventing the Delta variant of the virus, a Canadian drugmaker said Tuesday. Medicago’s vaccine was 75.3% effective against the variant when enhanced with GlaxoSmithKline’s booster, according to a late-stage study from both companies. “These are encouraging results given data were obtained in an environment with no ancestral virus circulating. The global COVID-19 pandemic is continuing to show new facets with the current dominance of the Delta variant, upcoming Omicron, and other variants likely to follow,” GSK Chief Global Health Officer Thomas Breuer said in a statement. The vaccine employs a technology known as virus-like particles produced in plant cells, which mimic the structure of the coronavirus, but contain no genetic material from it. The vaccine’s overall efficacy was 71% against all variants of the coronavirus, except Omicron, which was not known to be circulating yet when the study was underway.

First lab results show omicron has ‘much more extensive escape’ from antibodies than previous variants - The first in-depth laboratory study of the omicron variant of the coronavirus offers a mixed bag of bad news and good news. The bad: This variant is extremely slippery. It eludes a great deal of the protection provided by disease-fighting antibodies. That means people who previously recovered from a bout of covid-19 could be reinfected. And people who have been vaccinated could suffer breakthrough infections. But the findings of the study, which tested the omicron variant of the coronavirus against the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, aren’t entirely bleak. The study, released Tuesday, found that even if the power of vaccines is diminished in the face of omicron, there’s still some protection afforded against the virus. And it suggests that booster shots could be key in the battle with the variant. The implications of the findings for vaccine strategy are, at this point, unclear. It is a good sign that the Pfizer vaccine retains some punch against the omicron variant, but these lab experiments are a highly artificial way of testing how vaccines hold up.Vaccine makers are working to reboot their vaccines with omicron-specific shots, but it is uncertain whether they will be needed or whether the protection from shots and boosters based on the strain of the virus that emerged two years ago will be sufficient.The experimental study, from leading scientists in South Africa, was described in a preprint paper not yet peer-reviewed. The scientists reported a large, 41-fold drop in the virus-blocking ability of antibodies — “much more extensive escape” than seen against previous variants using similar experiments.Still, previous infection followed by vaccination or a booster is likely to “confer protection from severe disease in Omicron infection,” the study said. The study is one of the first clues that will help inform pharmaceutical companies and policymakers trying to decide whether the global vaccination strategy needs to be updated with an omicron-specific shot.The data reinforces the need for people to get booster shots when eligible. But the lab experiment is just one piece of the puzzle, which will also depend on how the virus spreads in the general population and whether it is more likely to cause severe disease, something not easily determined in the first weeks of a new variant’s identification. “Omicron evades most of the vaccine response,” . He stopped short of saying that vaccines will have to be rebooted to match omicron’s highly mutated spike protein. “We don’t know what will happen with hospitalization or severe disease. If vaccines are keeping people out of the hospital and are making what could be a bad disease into something like a common cold, or something a bit more severe but not life-threatening in any way, then we’re good,” Nussenzweig said.

Pfizer Says 3 Doses Of Its Jab Can "Neutralize" Omicron Variant - During an interview on CNBC's Squawk Box, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla appeared to contradict his own company's data by claiming that his company's jab will "not lose any efficacy against omicron" because the "mode of action is not on the spike...it's working on a different element of the virus."However, data out of South Africa appears to show that even patients who have been vaccinated are testing positive for omicron. And keep in mind, the lab-only results Pfizer shared today aren't nearly as reliable as trial data involving actual human patients. He's doing his job - trying to sell more vaccines. Last night, data released out of South Africa showed that the Pfizer vaccine, supposedly the world's gold standard in terms of COVID jabs, was less effective against the omicron variant than earlier variants of SARS-CoV-2.And on Wednesday morning, Pfizer and its partner BioNTech pushed back by releasing data showing that three full doses of their best-selling jab were effective enough to neutralize the omicron variant in lab tests (not in actual humans).However, two vaccine doses resulted in significantly lower neutralizing antibodies but that a third dose of their vaccine increased the neutralizing antibodies by a factor of 25. Using blood obtained from patients that had their booster shot a month ago, the scientists found that it neutralized the Omicron variant about as effectively as blood after two doses fought off the original Wuhan strain.As the partners behind the world's best-selling jab scramble to produce an omicron-specific version of their jab, the data released this morning showed that a third dose increased antibodies as much as 25-fold compared with only two doses, the companies said. But that doesn't mean only having two doses won't prevent serious illness - it will.

Pfizer Vaccine Less Effective Against Omicron Than Beta Variant, South Africa Study Reveals --Earlier this afternoon we wondered what time the traditional late day selloff would hit. The answer - just after 3pm, because that's when we got the latest troubling news about the new covid strain: according toBloomberg,, which cited the research head of a laboratory at the Africa Health Research Institute in South Africa, Omicron’s ability to evade vaccine and infection-induced immunity is “robust but not complete.” In the first reported experiments gauging the effectiveness of COVID vaccines against the worrisome new strain, researchers at the institute found that the variant could partially evade the vaccine produced by Pfizer and BioNTech. Still, as South Africa's Alex Sigal said, "evasion wasn’t complete and a booster shot could provide additional protection" suggesting that this is yet another pitch for booster shoots. The study on 12 people found that using blood plasma shows a 40x reduction in neutralization capacity of Pfizer (PFE) vaccines vs Omicron COVID-19 variant, although vaccines likely protect against severe diseases. Sigal’s laboratory was the first to isolate the beta variant. As Sigal adds, the variant still targets ACE-2 inhibitor and the news is "generally good." Results are preliminary and subject to change. The work in Sigal’s lab involved testing blood plasma from people who were vaccinated against Covid-19 to gauge the concentration of antibodies needed to neutralize, or block, the virus. The results, along with those from other labs currently under way, will help determine whether or not existing Covid vaccines need to be altered to protect against omicron. The news comes as the WSJ notes that Omicron variant "is weeks away from becoming the dominant strain in parts of Europe, government officials and scientists say, as emerging evidence from the U.K., Norway and South Africa suggests that vaccines may offer significant protection against severe illness with the variant." However, so far, South Africa has seen fewer deaths since omicron was first discovered and reported to the WHO.

Canada Ditches Moderna Booster For Pfizer Over Myocarditis Risk In Young Men - Canada has become the latest country to recommend that young people - in this case boys and men aged 12 through 29 - should opt for the Pfizer Covid-19 booster shot over Moderna's Spikevax due to a higher risk of myocarditis. On Page 7 of Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization's revised guidelines, the new guidance calls for the Pfizer-BioNTech offering due to "Lower reported cases of myocarditis/pericarditis ... compared to Moderna Spikevax." Canada's Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam explained the decision in a Friday tweet, noting that "The latest data suggests the rare risk of these events following vaccination with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines (most often seen in males 12-29 yrs) may be lower with Pfizer-BioNTech Comirnaty (30 mcg) compared to Moderna Spikevax (100 mcg) vaccine," while a "longer interval between 1st & 2nd dose of a primary series results in stronger immune response/higher vaccine effectiveness + may be associated with lower risk of myocarditis &/or pericarditis in teens & young adults." 5/8 Evidence also shows a longer interval between 1st & 2nd dose of a primary series results in stronger immune response/higher vaccine effectiveness + may be associated with lower risk of myocarditis &/or pericarditis in teens & young adults. — Dr. Theresa Tam (@CPHO_Canada) December 4, 2021 The agency still recommends both vaccination and boosters. Canada joins Germany, France, Finland, Denmark and Sweden in warning young adults to avoid the Moderna jab following evidence of 'rare but harmful' side effects. The decision follows recently released data showing that the risk of heart inflammation from Pfizer's jab "appears to be around five times lesser...compared to Modera's spikevax jab", per an opinion published by the HAS. Here's a summary of the German PEI data via Reuters: The German PEI data showed a "report rate" for heart inflammations of 11.71 per 100,000 shots with the Moderna vaccine for men in the 18-29 age group, compared with 4.68 for the Biontech/Pfizer shot. For women, the rate was 2.95 with Moderna and 0.97 with Biontech/Pfizer. In the 12-17 age group, the rate was 11.41 for males with the Moderna shot compared with 4.81 for Biontech/Pfizer. There was no data provided for females in the lower age group. In November, Europe's drug regulator confirmed that it's investigating Moderna's mRNA vaccine following six cases of capillary leak syndrome.

Pfizer Accused Of Spreading "Misinformation" About Rival COVID Jabs -- Leave it to the Brits to highlight all the flaws inherent in the US-led effort to develop (and reap immense profits from) COVID vaccines while the WTO holds the line on denying the sharing of IP rights to allow developing nations to produce their own jabs. The UK's Channel 4 has produced a new documentary that exposes Pfizer's efforts to undermine its rivals, including AstraZeneca, which developed a jab in the UK with help from Oxford University. And teasers from this new doc, released late Monday, purports to show that Pfizer criticized AZ in a presentation where the company said the rival jab was potentially dangerous. Furthermore, the speakers claimed AZ's jab could cause cancer and was not safe for immunosuppressed patients. The presentation in question was delivered in Canada sometime last year, although it's unclear whether it was a one-off event or whether the speaker had made the claim multiple times. The program, entitled "Vaccine Wars: The Truth About Pfizer", will air in its entirety on Friday. Pfizer responded to the claims made in the documentary by insisting that the presentation cited therein had been "wrongly attributed" to Pfizer, and that it actually had been made by a third party. In a statement to the Daily Mail,, Pfizer insisted that it's priority "has always been getting high-quality, well-tolerated and effective vaccines..." "We refute any suggestion that Pfizer has sought to undermine others’ scientific endeavors," a company spokesman told the Daily Mail. "Our priority has always been getting high-quality, well-tolerated and effective vaccines to patients all over the world as quickly as possible and to help put an end to this deadly pandemic." The documentary also purports to show that Pfizer is price gouging governments and insurers by estimating the cost of producing a single jab is just 76 pence ($1.02). The vaccines are then sold for 20x that, or roughly $20 a dose (and Pfizer hopes to raise prices in the coming months, particularly if it's forced to reformulate its vaccines for omicron).

South African Doctors: Omicron Coronavirus Variant Can Partly Evade Protective Antibodies - Scientists in South Africa say the new and rapidly spreading omicron variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is partly able to evade antibodies produced by either a previous infection or vaccination. The results were found in laboratory tests conducted at the Africa Health Research Institute in Durban on blood samples of 12 people who had been fully vaccinated with the two-dose Pfizer vaccine. The researchers discovered a 41-fold decrease in the levels of neutralizing antibodies against omicron, a much more extensive decrease than other variants in similar experiments. The samples were separated between those from six uninfected vaccinated people and six people who had been infected with COVID-19 before getting vaccinated. The researchers discovered that the samples from the second group produced stronger antibodies than those of the first group. A woman is vaccinated against COVID-19 at the Hillbrow Clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa, Dec. 6, 2021. SEE ALSO: Preliminary Study Suggests Omicron Variant May Be Less Severe Than Other Versions Alex Sigal, the lead researcher, says the results show that vaccines and vaccine booster shots are still effective against omicron. The study, which was released online Tuesday, has not been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. In a similar development, Pfizer and German-based BioNTech, the co-developer of its COVID-19 vaccine, said Wednesday that preliminary laboratory studies showed the two-dose vaccine was effective against the omicron variant after it was administered as a booster. The companies said the samples of individuals who received the initial two-dose regimen showed a 25-fold decrease in antibodies against omicron compared to a so-called “wild-type” version of the coronavirus, while samples from people who received the booster shot showed the extra dose increased the antibodies by the same amount. Pfizer and BioNTech are developing a new version of their COVID-19 vaccine specifically to combat the new omicron variant. In other developments, British drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline says further studies of its experimental COVID-19 antibody treatment is effective against all 37 identified mutations of the omicron variant. Earlier studies showed that the drug, called sotrovimab, was effective against a key mutation in omicron’s spike protein, the part of the virus that binds to cells in our bodies.

Omicron variant: Booster shot could be ready by March, Moderna president says - Moderna could have a booster shot that would target the Omicron variant of COVID-19 ready for approval by March 2022, according to the head of the drug company.Stephen Hoge, Moderna’s president, said Wednesday that a booster dose targeting the mutations found in the Omicron variant would be the best way to address any waning protection provided by the coronavirus vaccines.According to Hoge, the company is also working on a vaccine that could target up to four coronavirus variants, including Omicron. However, that vaccine could take several months before it is developed and gains approval from the appropriate regulatory agencies, Hoge told Reuters.Moderna’s president did, however, express optimism that the existing vaccines on the market would be able to protect people against the Omicron variant. Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to the president and head of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, agreed with Hoge, saying it is very likely that the current vaccines out on the market will protect people against the Omicron variant.“Our experience with variants such as the Delta variant is that even though the vaccine isn’t specifically targeted to the Delta variant, when you get a high enough level of an immune response, you get spillover protection even against a variant that the vaccine wasn’t specifically directed at,” Fauci said Wednesday.

FDA authorizes AstraZeneca antibody cocktail for immunocompromised people -The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Wednesday authorized AstraZeneca’s antibody cocktail designed to prevent COVID-19 in immunocompromised people who may not mount an adequate immune response to vaccines. The FDA granted AstraZeneca’s Evusheld, previously known as AZD7442, an emergency use authorization to be given to certain adult and pediatric patients who are not currently infected with COVID-19 and have not been exposed to someone with the virus. In order to take the medicine, the patients need to either have moderate to severely compromised immune systems due to medical conditions or immunosuppressive medications or treatments or to have a history of a severe adverse reaction to the vaccine or its ingredients. The FDA noted Evusheld should not function as “a substitute for vaccination in individuals for whom COVID-19 vaccination is recommended.” “Vaccines have proven to be the best defense available against COVID-19,” said Patrizia Cavazzoni, the director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research. “However, there are certain immune compromised individuals who may not mount an adequate immune response to COVID-19 vaccination, or those who have a history of severe adverse reactions to a COVID-19 vaccine and therefore cannot receive one and need an alternative prevention option.” The preventative cocktail, composed of the long-acting monoclonal antibodies tixagevimab and cilgavimab, is instructed to be given in two separate consecutive intramuscular injections. That dose could prevent COVID-19 in at-risk individuals for six months. AstraZeneca submitted its request for emergency use authorization in October based on data showing the cocktail was 77 percent effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19. A company analysis from last month found the drug combination to be more than 80 percent effective. The drug was tested in a trial involving participants older than 59 at higher risk for COVID-19 who had not gotten vaccinated or had a previously confirmed infection.With about 7 million Americans considered to be immunocompromised, the antibody cocktail could help them develop a stronger immune response to prevent COVID-19 infection.AstraZeneca noted that studies are currently ongoing to see how the omicron variant affects Evusheld.

Pfizer CEO says fourth vaccine shot may eventually be needed - Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on Wednesday said that a fourth dose of the COVID-19 vaccine may eventually be needed amid concerns about the omicron variant. Bourla told CNBC that he previously thought a fourth shot may be needed 12 months after the third dose, but with omicron, that timeline may need to be moved up. "I think we will need the fourth dose," he said, pointing to his previous timeline of 12 months. "With omicron, we need to wait and see because we have very little information. We may need it faster." For now, though, the company says that three doses appear to provide good protection. Pfizer released data on Wednesday showing that a third dose led to similar levels of antibodies against omicron as two doses had against the original virus, which led to strong protection. For right now to get through the winter surge, "a third dose will give very good protection I believe," Bourla said. It is unclear how durable that protection will be. Some experts have been skeptical of the need for additional shots of the vaccine, noting that companies like Pfizer have a financial interest in selling more shots and that even two shots could still provide protection against severe disease, particularly in nonelderly people. Still, many experts, including the Biden administration's health officials, have backed the idea of at least a third shot, particularly given the threat of omicron. One possibility is also that any fourth dose could be one specifically targeted to omicron, something Pfizer is exploring. As Bourla said as well, there is still the need for more data on a fourth shot's necessity.

​​Former Trump FDA commissioner says yearly COVID-19 boosters may be needed -Stephen Hahn, a former Food and Drug Administration commissioner under former President Trump, told Axios in an interview that he believed COVID-19 booster shots might be needed on a yearly basis. "What I find interesting with omicron is that there are some early and encouraging results of people not getting particularly sick from this variant," Hahn told the news outlet. "Viruses often mutate to survive, but become less virulent during that mutation, so that might be what we're seeing. ... Instead of getting a booster every six months, it could maybe be once a year." However, he did include the caveat to Axios that this was his “best guess” on the matter. Scientists are trying to learn more about the omicron variant that was first detected in South Africa last month and has since spread to multiple states in the U.S. as well as other countries. Health officials are attempting to learn how contagious and severe the variant is compared to prior strains such as delta. They are researching whether the present COVID-19 vaccines are effective enough against omicron or if variant-specific treatment and vaccines may be required. Information from preliminary studies indicated that two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in addition to a booster neutralize the variant, the two companies said on Wednesday. “Although two doses of the vaccine may still offer protection against severe disease caused by the Omicron strain, it’s clear from these preliminary data that protection is improved with a third dose of our vaccine,” Pfizer CEO and Chairman Albert Bourla said.

Is It Time to Change the Definition of ‘Fully Vaccinated’? -As more indoor venues require proof of vaccination for entrance and with winter — as well as omicron, a new covid variant — looming, scientists and public health officials are debating when it will be time to change the definition of “fully vaccinated” to include a booster shot.It’s been more than six months since many Americans finished their vaccination course against covid; statistically, their immunity is waning.At the same time, cases of infections with the omicron variant have been reported in at least five states, as of Friday. Omicron is distinguished by at least 50 mutations, some of which appear to be associated with increased transmissibility. The World Health Organization dubbed it a variant of concern on Nov. 26.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended that everyone 18 and older get a covid booster shot, revising its narrower guidance that only people 50 and up “should” get a shot while younger adults could choose whether or not to do so. Scientists assume the additional shots will offer significant protection from the new variant, though they do not know for certain how much.Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, during a White House press briefing Wednesday was unequivocal in advising the public. “Get boosted now,” Fauci said, adding urgency to the current federal guidance. About a quarter of U.S. adults have received additional vaccine doses.“The definition of ‘fully vaccinated’ has not changed. That’s, you know, after your second dose of a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, after your single dose of a Johnson & Johnson vaccine,” said the CDC’s director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, during Tuesday’s White House briefing on covid. “We are absolutely encouraging those who are eligible for a boost six months after those mRNA doses to get your boost. But we are not changing the definition of ‘fully vaccinated’ right now.” A booster is recommended two months after receiving the J&J shot.But that, she noted, could change: “As that science evolves, we will look at whether we need to update our definition of ‘fully vaccinated.’” Still, the Democratic governors of Connecticut and New Mexico are sending a different signal in their states, as are some countries — such as Israel, which arguably has been the most aggressive nation in its approach. Some scientists point out that many vaccines involve three doses over six months for robust long-term protection, such as the shot against hepatitis. So “fully vaccinated” may need to include shot No. 3 to be considered a full course.

 Variation in the Potential Geographic Impact of Omicron - Menzie Chinn - Very tentative (non-clinical test) indications are that vaccination helps reduce incidence and severity of infections from the omicron variant. If this proves true, then we should expect vaccination rates to be critical to impact. Here’s the map, county-by-county. Source: NYT, accessed 12/6/2021.No data available at county level for Texas, Georgia and Hawaii, so here is the Mayo Clinic’s map. Source: Mayo Clinic, accessed 12/6/2021. Texas at 55-60%, Georgia at 50-55%, for total population (as far as I can tell). So, it would appear the South generally, and rural areas, are most at risk.Returning to aggregates, Goldman Sachs knocked 1.5 ppts (at annualized rates) off of Q1 forecasted growth, and 0.5 ppts off of Q2 (the latter on the basis of supply chain impacts in other countries). Applying these adjustments to the Survey of Professional Forecasters November forecast (red line) yields the following projection (teal line). Figure 1: GDP reported (black bold), potential GDP (gray), Survey of Professional Forecasters (red), and Survey of Professional Forecasters subtracting 1.5ppts in Q1, 0.5ppts in Q2 (teal). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA 2021Q3 2nd release, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters (November), and author’s calculations.Of course, all these forecasts constitute educated guessing given the many unknowns about omicron (except we are pretty sure being vaccinated likely reduces the severity of symptoms). The Goldman Sachs pre-omicron forecast was for above consensus growth, so even with the downgrades, the GS forecast is still above the SPF mean forecast.) Update: In their recent article, Andrew Foerster, Nick Garvey and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte provide the following picture of leisure and hospitality employment recovery and vaccination rates, by state:

U.K. Provides Clues on How Omicron Could Play Out in the U.S. – WSJ —The U.K. is emerging as a testing ground in the battle for dominance between the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus and Delta, the earlier strain that is currently driving most infections in the U.S. and Europe.How Britain fares against Omicron will offer clues to the U.S. and the rest of the industrialized world about how the variant behaves in a highly vaccinated population, how sick those who are infected get and if its dozens of mutations have given Omicron enough of an advantage on the evolutionary ladder to starve Delta of the hosts it needs to stay on top.South Africa alerted the world to Omicron in late November and is experiencing a rapid increase in infections with the new variant.But scientists say it might not be a reliable template for what could happen with Omicron in the U.S. and Europe because its vaccination coverage is lower, its population is younger, and the variant isn’t competing with a large number of Delta cases. It is also summer in the Southern Hemisphere, and the virus tends to spread more easily when people are huddled together indoors in the winter. Many South African cases have been mild. Fresh hospitalization data released from South Africa indicated that Omicron provokes a milder infection than past variants even though it spreads more quickly.Michelle Groome, who heads the public-health division at South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases, told a news conference Friday that researchers saw a disconnect between infections and hospitalizations compared with previous strains, with fewer hospitalizations among infected people and a small uptick in the number of deaths. She cautioned that the results could be due to the limited sample size at the wave’s early stage.The U.K. looks more like the U.S. and will likely prove a better guide to how Omicron will play out—and not for the first time, having been hit by the Alpha variant sooner than North America. Its population is older than South Africa’s, vaccination coverage is widespread and it has, since an almost-complete reopening in the summer, experienced a sustained but manageable spell of Delta cases, hospital admissions and deaths. It also has a sophisticated surveillance system for monitoring variants and its doctors and scientists publish reams of data and analysis on Covid-19.Scientists and vaccine makers are investigating Omicron, a Covid-19 variant with around 50 mutations, that has been detected in many countries after spreading in southern Africa. Prime Minister Boris Johnson reimposed some public-health restrictions in England this week in an effort to stem the spread of the new variant, as public-health officials warned Omicron was on course to cause one million infections in Britain by the end of the month. Omicron cases are doubling every two to three days, public-health officials estimate, highlighting the variant’s potential to displace Delta as the most common variant within weeks.

Omicron live updates: US daily death average surges - As the COVID-19 pandemic has swept the globe, more than 5.2 million people have died from the disease worldwide, including over 790,000 Americans, according to real-time data compiled by Johns Hopkins University's Center for Systems Science and Engineering.Just 60% of the population in the United States is fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The daily death average in the U.S. has increased to more than 1,150 -- up by 57% in the last week, according to federal data. The U.S. is about 10,000 deaths away from reaching yet another grim milestone of 800,000 Americans lost to COVID-19. The U.S. is now averaging approximately 103,000 new cases per day, which is a 19% increase in the last week and a 62% jump since late-October, according to federal data. Minnesota currently holds the country's highest case rate followed by Vermont and Wisconsin. Puerto Rico, Hawaii and Louisiana have the nation's lowest infection rate.Dr. Anthony Fauci on Tuesday told news agency Agence France-Presse that the omicron variant is "almost certainly" not more severe than delta.He stressed, however, that it is important to not overinterpret early data, as the patients being followed skew younger and are less likely to become hospitalized. Severe illness can take weeks to develop."There is some suggestion that it might even be less severe, because when you look at some of the cohorts that are being followed in South Africa, the ratio between the number of infections and the number of hospitalizations seems to be less than with delta," Fauci said.He also reiterated that it would take at least several more weeks to understand key questions surrounding omicron's severity. Results from labs testing current vaccines against omicron should come in the "next few days to a week," Fauci said.

Minneapolis man who was one of first US Omicron cases speaks out - The Minneapolis man who tested positive for the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in one of the US’s first cases has spoken out, saying it had not “crossed my mind” that he might have been exposed to the virus.Peter McGinn, 30, who is fully vaccinated and received a booster shot, said he went out following the Anime NYC 2021 event at the Javits Center last month to a bar with several other vaccinated attendees, half of whom have since tested positive for the virus, ABC News reported.“I felt perfectly safe with the people that I was with, and so it never really crossed my mind to think that I had COVID,” McGinn, a health care analyst, told the network Sunday. “I was just a little taken aback.”McGinn said after returning to Minneapolis from the trip, he learned that a friend with whom he had attended the convention contracted the virus. On Nov. 23, McGinn took an at-home test that showed he was positive for the virus. He then went to a large testing site for a PCR test that confirmed his result. “That threw me for a loop because I really wasn’t feeling sick,” he told the Star Tribune. He said he had a slight runny nose, a mild cough and felt exhausted — but chalked it up to walking 15 miles a day during his trip to New York City. State health employees conducted genetic sequencing on his sample and informed him on Dec. 1 that he was one of the first cases in the US of the new variant. “I’m essentially patient zero,” McGinn told the New York Times. He said he recovered quickly from the illness — which he attributes to being fully vaccinated and receiving a booster shot. “A lot of it was just like, ‘See, vaccines don’t work.’ But in my opinion, they absolutely work because they reduce the amount of people who are in the hospital,” he told the Star Tribune. “You might still get COVID, but it reduces the symptoms based off my experience.”

Vaccinated college student returning to L.A. County confirmed as 2nd case of omicron variant - A second case of the omicron COVID-19 variant was confirmed in Los Angeles County, officials reported Monday. The infected person is a college student who returned to the region after traveling for a holiday on the East Coast. The individual is fully vaccinated, has mild symptoms and is self isolating, L.A. County public health officials said in a news release. Close contacts in L.A. County have been identified, are quarantining and are being tested. Additionally, health officials are working with the university where the individual is a student to determine if there are any other close contacts. The person likely became infected outside of L.A. County, based on travel history, officials said. No further details about the individual or the case were released. The first reported case of the omicron variant in L.A. County was detected and confirmed last week, after a San Francisco resident was identified as the first known case of the variant in the U.S.

U.S. coronavirus cases approach 50 million as New York City imposes new vaccine mandate - -- The total number of reported coronavirus cases in the United States marched toward 50 million Monday, even as New York City imposed a vaccine mandate for all private employers, federal health authorities warned against travel to several European countries and more nations tightened restrictions on the unvaccinated. The omicron variant of the virus, which is possibly more contagious than the widespread delta variant, had been found in 19 U.S. states as of Monday — just five days after the first case in the country emerged in California. That number reflected the potentially heightened transmissibility of the newest strain and an improved system for detecting it.The latest turn in the two-year-old pandemic also brought echoes of its early stages as authorities reported that at least 17 passengers and crew from a cruise ship that docked in New Orleans over the weekend had been infected with the virus that causes covid-19. The infected people aboard the Norwegian Breakaway cruise ship, operated by Norwegian Cruise Lines, were described as “asymptomatic” and sent home to self-isolate. The ship set sail from the same location Nov. 28 with all 3,200 people aboard required to show proof of vaccination.The development was similar to an episode during the pandemic’s early days, when hundreds of people came down with the virus aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in the port of Yokohama, Japan, and the vessel became a symbol of the difficult health and political decisions that would characterize the covid crisis.Scientists are racing to learn and collect data about omicron, which was first discovered not even two weeks ago. But hopes that omicron, coupled with vaccination, might produce milder disease than delta were buoyed Monday when Peter McGinn, the first person with a confirmed case of the new strain in Minnesota, reported that the virus had barely affected him. McGinn and about 15 others appear to have picked up coronavirus when they traveled for a large anime convention in New York City from Nov. 19 to Nov. 21.Members of the group flew in from a variety of U.S. locations and went out for dinner, drinks and karaoke together in the city, leaving in doubt precisely where they were infected.

COVID New York Update: Tri-State omicron case count up to 10 as hospitals strain under delta surge - -- New York announced three more cases of the omicron variant of the coronavirus Saturday, bringing the number of state cases linked to the new variant to eight. "The omicron variant is here, and as anticipated we are seeing the beginning of community spread," state Health Commissioner Mary Bassett said in a news release. The number of states finding the variant is growing as well, with Massachusetts, Connecticut and Washington state announcing their first cases Saturday, a day after New Jersey, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Maryland reported their first confirmed cases. Missouri reported its first presumed case Friday. The variant also has been detected in Nebraska, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Colorado and Utah. In New York, seven of the cases have been found in New York City, once a global epicenter of the pandemic, and the other in Suffolk County. The arrival of omicron comes as hospitals statewide continue to strain under a surge in coronavirus cases, most traced to the delta variant, along with staffing shortages. The number of people testing positive statewide each day for the virus has doubled in the last 30 days. Gov. Kathy Hochul in recent days has authorized the Health Department to limit nonessential, non-urgent procedures at hospitals close to running out of beds and deployed National Guard teams to relieve healthcare workers at facilities dealing with staffing issues and surging caseloads. Fifteen members of the National Guard arrived at Monroe Community Hospital in Rochester on Saturday, WROC reported. Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin said Wednesday the state would send 13 National Guard teams to the western New York county, where County Executive Adam Bello has declared a state of emergency. New York's omicron cases so far appear to be unrelated, Hochul said. One of the known cases involved a man from Minnesota who was among 50,000 people who attended a three-day anime festival in New York City in November. Authorities have urged anyone who attended the conference to get tested for COVID-19 and wear a mask in public.

 After omicron arrives, Utah reports 3,457 COVID cases, 32 deaths — The Utah Department of Health on Monday reported 3,457 new COVID-19 cases and 32 additional deaths from over the weekend, just days after the new omicron variant was discovered in the state.Officials said 11 of the new deaths reported occurred before Nov. 1. The rolling 7-day average for positive tests has increased to 1,550 per day. The rolling 7-day average for percent positivity of "people over people" is 15.3%. and the rolling 7-day average for percent positivity of "tests over tests" is 10.%.School-aged children accounted for 653 of Monday's newly announced cases, with 361 cases in children ages 5-10, 132 cases in children ages 11-13, and 160 cases in children ages 14-18."In the last 28 days, people who are unvaccinated are at 14 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19, 9 times greater risk of being hospitalized due to COVID-19, and 3.6 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 than vaccinated people," UDOH wrote. "Since February 1, 2021, people who are unvaccinated are at 6.6 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19, 5.6 times greater risk of being hospitalized due to COVID-19, and 2.5 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 than vaccinated people."There are 502 people currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in Utah. With 32 additional deaths reported Monday, Utah's death toll stands at 3,595: (list)

The Biden Administration had better come up with a ‘Plan B’ - Coronavirus dashboard for December 7: since further mass vaccination could only happen at gunpoint, the Biden Administration had better come up with a ‘Plan B, says New Deal democrat.There are still distortions in the 7 day average data, as States did data dumps of deaths and new cases throughout last week, after not reporting over the long Thanksgiving holiday. That should finally disappear over the next few days. But since the same sort of Thanksgiving distortions occurred one year ago, it’s useful to take a YoY look at the data, which the below graph shows by US Census Region plus nationwide: The South and West regions have less than half as many cases as they did one year ago right after the Thanksgiving weekend, while the Northeast and Midwest have between 80% to 90% of the case they did one year ago. This is particularly interesting since the South, of all the regions, has the lowest vaccination rate. It partially suggests the importance of weather, and partially recent outbreaks rushing through the susceptible part of the population. A close-up of the last 8 weeks shows that the waves in the Northeast and Midwest started building near the end of October. Since the Delta wave from trough to peak in the South and West took about 2 months (similar to what happened in India, the UK, and now in the EU), this may mean that, except for the effect of Christmas gatherings, the peak in the colder regions is only a few weeks away: Additionally, if we average the most recent 7 day average, with the 7 day average one week ago, and compare that with the 7 day average 14 days ago, we probably get closer to a true picture of the pandemic. And there, the news is better. In the South, West, and even the Midwest, the average of the past 2 weeks is about the same as the 7 day average 2 weeks ago. Only in the Northeast has there been an unambiguous increase. But now, some pessimistic news. Vaccinations among adults have slowed to a crawl. Here is the graph of full vaccinations per capita for the entire US population: 40% of the entire US population was fully vaccinated on May 16. 50% was fully vaccinated on July 22.60% was fully vaccinated on December 4. It took 67 days to go from 40% to 50%. Even worse, some of those new vaccinations were for teens and a few for children under age 12. When we confine the data to only US adults, here’s what we get (note: no graph; data is from my “Weekly Indicators” compilations from the last 6 months): 50% of all US adults were fully vaccinated by May 30. 60% were fully vaccinated by July 30. Two more months later, by October 1, only 66.6% were fully vaccinated. 70% of all US adults were finally fully vaccinated by December 3. In other words, the pace of vaccinations fell by 50% between late spring and the onset of winter – despite the Delta wave occurring in late summer. Needless to say, this takes the prospect of beating Covid via vaccination alone in the US completely off the table. And, as far as I can tell, the Biden Administration has no other plan. It has refused to enact mandatory vaccination requirements for air and train travel. Yesterday Jen Psaki actually sneered at the idea of mailing test kits to everybody (which has in fact been done both in the UK and Singapore). Rapid testing at pharmacies for free – available in many other Western countries – is a figment of the imagination here. Seroprevalence studies appear to have been largely suspended. Even the publication of infection statistics by vaccination vs. non-vaccination status by the CDC has never been implemented. Since mass vaccination of the remaining US population could only happen essentially at gunpoint, the Biden Administration had better come up with a decent “Plan B” and fast.

COVID: East Bay omicron cases were vaccinated Kaiser staff -- Kaiser Permanente said Wednesday that 11 of its vaccinated and boosted Oakland Medical Center workers were among a cluster of East Bay COVID-19 cases linked to the omicron variant — and that at least 16 patients and other staff members were exposed to them before the discovery. All 11 of the Kaiser employees had attended a wedding in Wisconsin that is believed to be responsible for the outbreak, the largest known Bay Area cluster of infections attributed to the worrisome new variant that has touched off a worldwide sprint to determine its dangers and contain its spread. The revelation comes five days after Alameda County health officials said they were investigating 12 local COVID-19 cases linked to the Nov. 27 wedding. As of Wednesday, six of the 12 cases have been confirmed to be the omicron variant, Alameda County health officials said. For now, there is no indication that the virus has spread beyond the larger group — a hopeful sign that public health measures have limited the spread of the variant that is now in 21 states. However, test results for some of the group are pending. Alameda County health spokeswoman Neetu Balram said that as of Tuesday afternoon, “we had not documented any local transmission of COVID-19 connected to this outbreak.” “But the investigation is ongoing,” she said. Kaiser said Wednesday that the 11 infected members of its Oakland Medical Center staff were fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and had received booster shots. “These staff members’ exposure to COVID-19 happened at a wedding out of state, not through their work at the medical center,” Kaiser said in a statement Wednesday, indicating those workers “are isolated at home with mild symptoms.” Kaiser said the first staff member reported symptoms Nov. 30. Eight patients and eight other members of its staff were potentially exposed to the infected workers before they were symptomatic or tested. Those patients and staff now are isolated and being tested, with no confirmed COVID-19 cases among them so far. Of those, 13 have tested negative for COVID-19, and results are pending for the rest.

Omicron variant not detected in Ohio yet, health experts concerned about rising cases -Since the omicron variant was first identified, OSU Medical Wexner has been ramping up its sequencing efforts. "We immediately ran it on the day of Thanksgiving, and we have sequenced almost 1,300 samples since then and as of this morning, we have not yet identified the Omicron variant,” said Chief Scientific Officer Peter Mohler. Mohler said they have now had two labs focusing on sequencing for the variants. "To think about things like contact tracing, think about things like additional restrictions,” said Mohler. Genetic sequencing can only be done with the PCR test, and the at-home kits cannot determine if someone is infected with the Omicron variant. However, they caution as they work to learn more, they are still trying to pinpoint how infectious and detrimental the new variant may be. "It's really important, again we're now in the 15th letter of the Greek alphabet, that we don't overact every time we see a new variant. Yes, this variant has more mutations, yes this variant has mutations in areas we have not seen yet,” said Mohler. Chief Clinical Officer Dr. Andrew Thomas also cautioned about a spike in cases as the delta variant is still the strongest variant in our community. More than 4,000 patients are in the hospital with the virus, the highest numbers since January of last year. "The cases started to rise earlier in November, and they have certainly continued like I mentioned they have yet to peak,” said Thomas. Thomas believes the spike in spread started around Halloween, and many worry the increase will continue into the Christmas holiday. "The things that people need to do is making sure if anyone is symptomatic, that they're staying home, they're getting tested to make sure to find out, whether they have influenza or COVID is an important part of keeping your holiday gatherings safe,” said Thomas.

US Covid cases surge as vaccine progress slows and Omicron variant sparks fears - For Dr Rina D’Abramo of the MetroHealth System in Cleveland, it’s difficult when patients in the emergency room tell her they have not been vaccinated. “You can hear it in their voice when you say, ‘Are you vaccinated?’” said D’Abramo, who works at a hospital in the Brecksville suburb. “They shrink down and are like, ‘No. Now I know why I need to be vaccinated.’ ” Unfortunately, there are plenty of people in Ohio and the rest of the US too who have not yet learned that lesson, even as infection rates nationally start to surge again amid fears of the possibly highly contagious new Omicron variant. Ohio is one of the states that has seen the largest recent increases in hospitalizations due to Covid as the number of cases climbs across the country. There has been 19% increase in hospitalizations over the past two weeks in the United States, according to a New York Times analysis of data. Ohio has a daily average of more than 4,400 people hospitalized due to Covid, which ranks fourth among states and represents a 29% increase over the past two weeks. While the increased number of people vaccinated against Covid had inspired hopes that Americans would be able to experience a relatively normal winter, the rise in Covid cases; holiday gatherings; and unanswered questions about the Omicron variant have sparked fresh concerns and warnings from doctors and public health officials in the US. “The yellow caution light has gone on because I think our progress in vaccination has slowed,” said William Schaffner, an infectious diseases expert at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Forty percent of the US population has not been fully vaccinated, and the number of doses administered each day has decreased from about 3.3m in April to about 1.7m today, according to the Times. Ohio is surrounded by states that have also seen a recent surge in Covid cases and hospitalizations. Pennsylvania and Michigan each have a daily average of more than 4,500 patients hospitalized, representing a more than 20% increase over the past two weeks. Illinois and Indiana have seen a 49% increase in hospitalizations. D’Abramo diagnoses about 10 patients daily with Covid, and about 98% of them are unvaccinated, she said. That trend has strained the capacity of hospitals in the Cleveland area. MetroHealth, Cleveland Clinic and University Hospitals announced last week that the surge has forced them to postpone some non-urgent surgeries. “This action frees resources for patients with immediate and life-threatening needs and manages the demands on frontline caregivers, who have served with distinction throughout the pandemic,” reads a joint announcement. At Beaumont Health, the largest healthcare system in Michigan, the emergency room and other parts of the hospital are full, primarily with patients who are not vaccinated, said Dr Matthew Sims, a Beaumont physician and director of infectious disease research. “With Covid patients, they have to be in rooms. You can’t go into overload conditions where you turn conferences rooms into emergency rooms or hallways into wards. You can’t do that sort of thing when it’s a contagious disease,”

North Texas lab reports 2 cases of omicron variant in DFW — Ayass BioScience, LCC, a North Texas lab, is reporting it has detected two cases of the omicron COVID-19 variant in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. That brings the total number of verified cases of the variant in Texas to three. “Ayass BioScience, LLC has detected the first two cases of the OMICRON variant in the DFW Metroplex using Next Generation Sequencing (NGS). This is a part of our continued efforts to provide the best laboratory services in the area and help our communities,” the lab’s website says. The lab’s Dr. Mohamed Ayass told Spectrum News 1 that the facility identified the variants over the last two days and that one involves a 40-year-old patient and the other a 35-year-old patient, neither of whom have traveled recently. The discovery was later confirmed by the Texas Department of State Health Services. When Spectrum News 1 reached out to the state health agency, it said, "The two Omicron variant cases identified by the lab in Frisco have been confirmed. One case is in Collin County and the other is in Tarrant County."

 Louisiana Health Department identifies 13 more probable cases of omicron in state — The Louisiana Department of Health announced Wednesday that 13 more probable cases of the omicron variant have been reported in Louisiana, bringing the total number of probable cases to 16. One case has been confirmed so far. One of the cases involves an individual in Region 4, which is the Acadiana area, who traveled internationally. This individual did not require hospitalization, according to the health department. Health officials said nine cases involve individuals in Region 1, the Greater New Orleans area, two cases involve individuals in Region 2, the Baton Rouge area, and two additional cases involve individuals in Region 7, the Northwest area. The first omicron case in Louisiana was identified on Dec. 3. “These new cases of Omicron should serve as a reminder of the ongoing threat of COVID especially as we get ready to gather for the holidays,” State Health Officer Dr. Joseph Kanter said in a statement. “The best way to protect yourself and your loved ones is get vaccinated and get the booster.” LDH spokeswoman Aly Neel said several COVID-19 testing sites in Louisiana have the ability to test for Omicron. But the department could not say the total number of specimens tested for omicron across the state, so far. Neel told WDSU LDH is also conducting, "targeted surveillance," in certain circumstances to test for omicron, specifically. They did so for the recent COVID-19 outbreak on the Norwegian Breakaway cruise ship, which docked in New Orleans last weekend. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and LDH recommend everyone 5 years of age and older get vaccinated and that everyone 18 years of age and older get a booster if eligible. The CDC also recommends wearing a mask in certain settings.

Omicron in the US: More states find COVID-19 variant cases More states found cases of the omicron coronavirus variant on Thursday. In Virginia, health officials reported the first case in an adult resident of the northwestern part of the state. In a news release, the Virginia Department of Health said the individual had no history of international travel, but did have a history of domestic travel during the exposure period. The person's condition was not released. Iowa health officials also confirmed the state's first omicron case on Thursday, involving an unvaccinated person under the age of 18 who lives in eastern Iowa's Black Hawk County. The individual has no symptoms, but their family sought testing due to travel exposure. More than a third of Iowans remain unvaccinated and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says 57.5% of the population is fully vaccinated. "There is emerging evidence that a booster dose of vaccine offers protection against omicron, which is great news," Iowa Department of Public Health interim Director Kelly Garcia said in a statement. "Vaccinated Iowans who have not yet received a booster should do so as soon as possible." The first omicron case in Michigan was identified Thursday in a Kent County resident, according to the state Department of Health and Human Services and Kent County Health Department. The adult was fully vaccinated but had not yet received a booster dose. "We are concerned, although not surprised, about the discovery of the omicron variant in Michigan," Elizabeth Hertel, director of the state health agency, said. "We continue to urge Michiganders ages 5 and up to get vaccinated and continue participating in measures we know slow the spread of the virus." Omicron has now been detected in more than 20 states across the country. In Georgia, state health officials have found a sign that omicron is spreading locally. On Thursday, the Department of Public Health said it had confirmed a case of the variant in an unvaccinated Atlanta-area resident who had not traveled abroad recently. Georgia's two previous cases had involved recent international travel. The infected person reportedly has mild symptoms and is isolating at home.

Omicron detected in Florida and Texas as it takes root in 25 U.S. states - Several southern U.S. states, including Texas, Georgia, Louisiana and Florida, have confirmed cases of the omicron Covid-19 variant as the highly mutated strain takes root in half of all U.S. states. Twenty-five U.S. states have detected cases of the new strain, a number that health officials expect to increase in the coming weeks, Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a White House Covid briefing Friday. The omicron cases come as the nation grapples with a wave of delta infections that has pushed Covid cases over 100,000 per day, 16% increase over the last week and up 23% since before Thanksgiving, according to John Hopkins University data. Scientists are still racing to answer questions about omicron's transmissibility, severity and impact on vaccine efficacy. Meanwhile, state, commercial and academic labs across the U.S. are upping genome sequencing efforts to detect more cases of the variant. Georgia public health officials reported three cases of the variant as of Thursday, all of whom live in the Atlanta-metropolitan area. The first two cases were announced in a press release on Sunday. One patient developed mild symptoms and tested positive for Covid after traveling from South Africa. The state health department also said it was notified on Dec. 3 about the second patient, who tested positive in New Jersey and is currently recovering there. The third case was confirmed on Thursday in an unvaccinated individual with no recent international travel history. The patient is suffering mild Covid symptoms and isolating at home. Georgia recorded a seven-day moving average of 1,334 positive tests for the virus on Thursday, after that number had bottomed out below 1,000 for most of November, according to data from the CDC. The positive tests have been steadily rising since Thanksgiving but are still far below the 7,000 to 9,000 seven-day averages seen in August. Louisiana public health officials reported 37 cases of the omicron variant as of Thursday. However, only three cases are confirmed and 34 are still "probable," the state health department said in a press release. The first probable case was reported and identified on Dec. 3. in a Greater New Orleans area resident who recently traveled within the U.S. An additional 16 probable cases were reported on Wednesday, while 20 were disclosed on Thursday alone. At least 28 probable cases and 2 confirmed cases are in residents of the Greater New Orleans area. Three probable cases are in patients from the Baton Rouge area. Two probable cases are in patients from Northwest Louisiana. The Texas state public health department confirmed its first case of omicron on Monday in a resident of Harris County where Houston is located. The department noted that the patient was an adult female but did not provide more information on her symptoms or when she tested positive. Two cases of the omicron variant have been reported in Florida as of Thursday, a spokesperson for the state's department of public health told CNBC. The department was notified of the first patient by the James A. Haley Veterans' Hospital in Tampa, the spokesperson said, noting that they are unable to provide details on the case. The hospital noted in a statement to WFLA that the patient is experiencing mild symptoms and recently traveled internationally.

Most reported U.S. Omicron cases have hit the fully vaccinated -CDC - Most of the 43 COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant identified in the United States so far were in people who were fully vaccinated, and a third of them had received a booster dose, according to a US report published on Friday. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that of the 43 cases attributed to Omicron variant, 34 people had been fully vaccinated. Fourteen of them had also received a booster, although five of those cases occurred less than 14 days after the additional shot before full protection kicks in. While the numbers are very small, they add to growing concerns that current COVID-19 vaccines may offer less protection against the highly transmissible new variant. The Omicron variant of the coronavirus has been found through testing in about 22 states so far after first being identified in southern Africa and Hong Kong in late November. Among the Omicron cases, 25 were in people aged 18 to 39 and 14 had traveled internationally. Six people had previously been infected with the coronavirus. Most of them only had mild symptoms such as coughing, congestion, and fatigue, the report said, and one person was hospitalized for two days. Other symptoms reported less frequently including nausea or vomiting, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, diarrhea and loss of taste or smell. The CDC said that while many of the first reported Omicron cases appear to be mild, a lag exists between infection and more severe outcomes. Symptoms would also be expected to be milder in vaccinated persons and those with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. The first known US Omicron case was identified on Dec 1 in a fully vaccinated person who had traveled to South Africa. The CDC said that the earliest date of symptom onset was Nov. 15 in a person with a history of international travel. The Delta variant still accounts for more than 99% of all U.S. cases. But reports from South Africa show that the Omicron variant is very transmissible. Even if most cases are mild, a highly transmissible variant could result in enough infections to overwhelm health systems, the CDC cautioned.

Next pandemic could be more lethal, vaccine researcher warns - The next pandemic could be deadlier and wreak more havoc than the COVID-19 crisis, a vaccine researcher has warned. Sarah Gilbert, a professor at the University of Oxford whose team developed the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, cautioned that while it’s clear that the current pandemic is “not done with us,” the next health threat could pose a greater danger, the BBC reported. “This will not be the last time a virus threatens our lives and our livelihoods. The truth is, the next one could be worse. It could be more contagious, or more lethal, or both,” she told the outlet. Gilbert said it’s critical that more funding and research be dedicated to preventing future pandemics. “We cannot allow a situation where we have gone through all we have gone through, and then find that the enormous economic losses we have sustained mean that there is still no funding for pandemic preparedness,” she said.“Just as we invest in armed forces and intelligence and diplomacy to defend against wars, we must invest in people, research, manufacturing and institutions to defend against pandemics.”

Spike in Omicron Variant Cases Puts Europe on Edge - NYTimes - With cases of the Omicron variant rising in Europe, there are worries that even tougher restrictions are looming over a holiday period that many had hoped would be a return to some normalcy. LONDON — Confirmed cases of the Omicron variant surged in Britain and Denmark on Sunday, backing up scientists’ fears that it has already spread more widely despite travel bans and adding to worries of new lockdowns before the holidays. The coronavirus variant has been found in at least 45 nations worldwide, with the United States and much of Europe reporting a number of new cases in recent days.On Sunday, Britain’s health security agency confirmed that it had now detected 246 cases of the variant — nearly double the total number of cases reported on Friday. In Denmark, the local health authorities confirmed that there were 183 known cases of the variant, more than triple the total number of suspected cases reported on Friday, and called the figures “worrying.”The numbers are skewed somewhat because both countries are widely seen as leaders in genomic sequencing and testing, so they are finding the variant in part because they are looking so carefully for it. And in Britain, scientists are focusing much of their genomic sequencing on international travelers and on contacts of those already infected with the Omicron variant — two groups more likely to have been exposed.Still, the announcements make clear that the number of Omicron cases is rising quickly. What that might mean for public health remains less clear. Many questions about the variant remain, including precisely how transmissible it is, how well vaccines will hold up against it and how likely it is to cause severe disease. There are some early signs that Omicron may cause only mild illness, though that observation was based mainly on South Africa’s cases among young people, who are less likely overall to become severely ill from Covid. And at the moment, scientists say there is no reason to believe Omicron is impervious to existing vaccines, although they may turn out to be less protective to some unknown degree.

Europe passes 75 million COVID cases, as Omicron variant found in at least 17 countries across the continent - Europe has passed 75 million cases of COVID-19, as deaths on the continent surge towards 1.5 million. The 75 million tally was reached last Friday, as a massive 418,190 new cases were recorded. That was the sixth time daily cases in Europe have topped 400,000, according to Our World in Data, since first passing that mark on November 24. In the seven days to Monday, 2,566,508 million cases were recorded across the continent, a 1 percent increase on the previous week. That there is no let-up in infections is seen in the fact that by Monday evening, with a number of high-population countries yet to publish figures, total cases had almost hit 76 million. People queue at a vaccination centre on Euston Road in London, Britain December 3, 2021 (WSWS Media) According to a Reuters analysis, in 2021 “Europe has reported highest daily average of 359,000 new cases in second half as compared with highest daily cases of about 241,000 a day in the first half of the year. “It took 136 days for the European region to go from 50 million cases to 75 million, compared with 194 days it took to get from 25 to 50 million while the first 25 million cases were reported in 350 days.” In France, where total cases stand at almost 8 million, there has been a 45 percent increase over the last seven days with almost 300,000 new infections recorded. Italy saw an increase of almost 25 percent over the same period from 82,128 to 101,267. Norway saw an increase of 36 percent, Finland 20 percent, Switzerland 19 percent, Portugal 18 percent and Ireland 10 percent. Another 26,913 lives were lost in the week to December 5 in Europe. The weekly number of deaths has not dipped below 25,000 for nearly a month, with the dire forecast by the World Health Organization last month that up to 700,000 more people could die in the European region by next March becoming a reality. The rise in cases and death could soon be exponential with the spread of the highly transmissible Omicron variant, which is now present in at least 17 European countries. On Sunday, Denmark announced that 183 known cases of Omicron had been detected, more than tripling the total number of suspected cases of the new variant reported just two days earlier. In Britain, Boris Johnson’s murderous government has led the way in the spread of COVID throughout Europe. In an island country with a relatively small population of 68 million, over 10.5 million people have been infected (almost 14 percent of all infections in Europe). The 51,459 infections reported Monday was the third time in the last week that more than 50,000 cases have been recorded on a single day in this phase of the pandemic. Britain’s population has suffered more than 167,000 deaths and its 153,744 infections per million of population is a higher rate than the United States, India, Brazil, Russia, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, Ukraine and South Africa. The Johnson government ditched all COVID restrictions in July, allowing the virus to spread unhindered, including in schools. On Sunday, a further 86 cases of Omicron were reported, taking the total to 246, an increase of more than 50 percent since Saturday. On Monday, another 90 cases took the official total to 336.

More than half Omicron cases in England are in the double jabbed -More than half of those infected with the Omicron coronavirus variant in England were double jabbed, health officials have said, as the number of cases detected in the UK continues to rise sharply. There were 75 further cases of the Covid-19 Omicron variant identified in England, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said on Friday night. It brings the total number of confirmed cases in England to 104 with 134 in the UK as a whole. There were warnings of a “small amount” of community transmission as not all the new cases were linked to travel. Cases have now been identified in the east Midlands, east of England, London, north-east, north-west, south-east, south-west and West Midlands. On Friday, 16 cases were found in Scotland in the previous 24 hours, five times the increase recorded the previous day, with some linked to a Steps concert in Glasgow 11 days ago. Wales also announced its first case on Friday. The sharp rise in cases came as a new risk assessment from the UKHSA said the new variant is “transmitting rapidly and successfully”. A separate analysis by the agency of the first 22 Omicron cases in England also found that more than half of those infected had been double jabbed. Twelve of the 22 cases occurred more than 14 days after the individual had received at least two doses of vaccine. Two cases were more than 28 days after a first dose of vaccine. Six were unvaccinated, while two had no available data. None of the cases is known to have been hospitalised or died, but the UKHSA said that “most of the cases have a specimen date that is very recent and that there is a lag between onset of infection and hospitalisation and death.”

Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK, says scientist -- The spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus appears to be doubling every two to three days, Prof Neil Ferguson has said, adding that it could be necessary to impose new lockdowns as a result. Ferguson, a member of the UK government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and head of the disease outbreak modelling group at Imperial College London, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Wednesday that Omicron was likely to be the dominant strain in the UK before Christmas. “It’s likely to overtake Delta before Christmas at this rate, precisely when is hard to say,” Ferguson said, speaking in a personal capacity. “We’ll start seeing an impact on overall case numbers – it’s still probably only 2%, 3% of all cases so it’s kind of swamped, but within a week or two we’ll start seeing overall case numbers accelerate quite markedly as well.” He said so far case numbers were particularly high in London and Scotland. “London is to be expected because that’s where most of our foreign visitors come,” he added. He said it was less clear why it had spread more quickly in Scotland but speculated that it could be linked with the Cop26 summit in Glasgow. The number of cases of the original Omicron variant detected in the UK rose by 101 to 437 on Tuesday as Scotland announced a return to working from home. Regarding lockdowns, Ferguson said it was difficult to rule out anything, adding that we “haven’t got a good enough handle on the threat”. He added: “Clearly, if the consensus is it is highly likely that the NHS is simply going to be overwhelmed then it will be for the government to decide what what he wants to do about that, but it’s a difficult situation to be in of course.” Pushed on whether lockdowns might be possible, he said: “It certainly might be possible at the current time.” He also noted preliminary work in the UK that suggests that two doses of Pfizer are roughly half as protective against mild disease as against other variants. But he said: “We think that protection against severe disease is much more likely to be maintained at the high level, but we don’t have firm data on that. That’s just based on extrapolation from past experience.”

UK could face major Omicron wave from January next year, new analysis warns --The UK could face a "large wave" of Omicron infections from January next year if restrictions on social gatherings are not imposed, a new scientific analysis warned on Saturday. The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) model lays out all the possible scenarios given the rate at which the infections are currently increasing in England, with uncertainty remaining on the numbers that would ultimately need hospitalisation due to the virus. It comes at a time when the UK recorded another jump in Omicron cases on Friday, with 448 new infections, taking the total to 1,265. "Based on what we're seeing we can expect there to be a large wave of Omicron in the UK," said Dr Nick Davies, one of the researchers behind the LSHTM modelling. The study assumed Omicron is less severe than previous variants among the vaccinated and therefore hospitalisations may not be too high. However, it noted that people being infected is currently doubling every 2.4 days in England, despite the region having high levels of vaccination. This indicates Omicron is set to overtake Delta as the dominant variant in the country by the end of this year. "In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron in the early part of 2022 would be reduced with mild control measures such as working from home, Dr Rosanna Barnard, one of the researchers of the analysis, told the BBC. However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed. Mask-wearing, social distancing and booster jabs are vital, but may not be enough, she said. The new research has been published online but has not been through the formal process of being reviewed by other scientists. On Friday, face coverings became compulsory in most indoor venues in England, including theatres, cinemas, places of worship, museums and indoor sport stadiums, under measures to tackle the Omicron variant. From Monday, the work from home where possible guidance kicks in as part of the government's Plan B set of measures to try and slow the spread of the new variant. From next week, COVID-19 vaccine certificates will become mandatory for entry to most venues.

The UK braces for 1 million omicron cases as Covid variant spreads— The rise of omicron Covid cases in the U.K. is on such steep trajectory that the country has been told to brace for one million cases by the end of the month.The UK Health Security Agency said Wednesday that omicron is displaying a significant growth advantage over the delta variant, "meaning that it is likely to outcompete delta in the U.K. and become the dominant variant."This assessment is based on analysis of U.K. data showing increased household transmission risk, increased secondary attack rates (the chance of each case infecting another individual) and increased growth rates compared to delta, the UKHSA said."If the growth rate and doubling time continue at the rate we have seen in the last 2 weeks, we expect to see at least 50% of coronavirus cases to be caused by omicron variant in the next 2 to 4 weeks," it said in a statement.Currently, the U.K. has recorded 568 confirmed cases of the variant, but the U.K.'s Health Secretary Sajid Javid told British lawmakers Wednesday eveningthat "we know that the actual number of infections will be significantly higher.""The UK Health Security Agency estimates that the [current] number of infections will be around 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases and so the number of infections is closer to 10,000," he said."At the current observed doubling rate of between two and a half and three days by the end of this month infections could exceed a million," Javid warned, saying the U.K. faced what he called the "twin threats" from both omicron and the delta variant, which makes up the bulk, still, of global cases. Experts and vaccine makers have scrambled to assess the variant's risk profile. They are particularly focused on how fast it spreads, whether it causes more severe illness and could lead to an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, and whether it will undermine Covid vaccines. Preliminary data, small studies and anecdotal evidence suggest the omicron variant is more transmissible than delta, but causes milder illness, and could undermine the effectiveness of Covid vaccines currently in use.

Omicron could mean more deaths as 'everyone will be reinfected' - An expert says the Omicron variant of Covid could lead to an increase in deaths and hospitalisations in the UK even if the symptoms most people get are milder. Scientists are currently unsure how seriously ill people will get when they catch the new variant of Covid. It appears to spread more quickly and easily than the Delta variant, and evades the protection offered by the vaccine and previous infection. But some experts believe infection with the Omicron variant may be much milder for most people. However an expert says even if fewer people get seriously ill that could still be a huge problem. Asked whether Omicron could infect more people but make fewer people sick, Professor Tim Spector, from the Covid Zoe app, told BBC Breakfast: “If early reports pan out – we don’t absolutely know this, we’ve got hardly any data in this country where we have high rates of vaccination – but if we assume that it is not more severe and possibly milder than Delta, but it’s much more transmissible… “So it means that perhaps twice as many people are going to pass it on from when someone gets it in a crowd. “That’s going to be good news for the individual because we have less cases going to hospital, and partly this is due to our high vaccination rates. “But it’s also means that eventually you will get more deaths and problems, because nearly everyone is infected or re-infected. “And so, this this means that for the country as a whole, it could be worse news but better for the individual. So it’s absolutely no reason for complacency.”

Two more Omicron cases in Maharashtra, India's tally now at 23 - Two cases of Covid-19 Omicron variant was reported in Mumbai on Monday, taking India’s total tally of the new coronavirus variant to 23. The first two cases were reported in Karnataka, followed by one in Jamnagar (Gujarat) and another in Maharashtra. Later on Sunday, seven cases were reported in Maharashtra’s Pune district, of which six belonged to the same family. In Jaipur, nine cases of the Omicron variant were confirmed — all of whom had attended the same wedding. In Delhi, a man in his 30s was found to be infected with the new variant and admitted to the Lok Nayak Jai Prakash Narayan hospital. Several states have stepped up vaccination, surveillance and containment measures as India detected over 20 cases of Omicron variant of coronavirus. Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia on Monday directed Delhi airport operator DIAL to implement better crowd management strategies after passengers complained of chaos and crowding at its terminal following the implementation of new coronavirus-related travel guidelines. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal urged the public not to panic and follow Covid appropriate behaviour. Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu government has taken preventive measures including door-to-door vaccination in wake of Omicron variant. Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai said that the state is fully prepared to control the new variant. Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar on Monday said there is need to take a decision at the national level on whether a booster dose of the vaccine is required to curb the pandemic. “The Centre too should take a strict position on patients coming from abroad in various states. It must be ensured rules are observed strictly at our international airports,” he added. India recorded 8,306 new Covid-19 cases, according to the Health Ministry’s press release in the last 24 hours ending 8 am on December 6. As many as 211 new deaths were reported in the country. With 8,834 recoveries, the active cases in India stood at 98,416.

Israel's Omicron count rises to 21 as 10 more cases confirmed - The number of Omicron coronavirus variant cases confirmed by Israel rose Monday to 21, with the Health Ministry reporting 10 more infections in the past day. According to the latest data, 16 of the cases were among people who returned from abroad, while five were detected in those who have not left the country recently, but came in contact with travelers from South Africa and the United States. Those who were overseas arrived from South Africa, Britain, the US and United Arab Emirates, a Health Ministry statement said. The statement made no mention of a Malawian tourist, who was one of the first two Omicron cases confirmed in Israel. It was not immediately clear why the Malawian woman was not mentioned.The ministry said that of the 21 cases, 13 were “fully protected,” which Israel defines as anyone who got a booster shot, or those who have recovered from COVID-19 or received their initial two vaccine doses within the past six months.The Health Ministry also said it was waiting for the final test results of another 21 suspected cases of the Omicron variant.Among the confirmed and suspected cases, the ministry reported five of those who are protected have symptoms and 10 listed as unprotected do not. No details were provided on the nature of the symptoms or the severity of the infections.

Vietnam Province Suspends Pfizer Vaccine Batch After 120 Children Hospitalized - The Vietnamese province of Thanh Hoa has suspended the use of a Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine batch after over 120 students were hospitalized following their inoculation. As VN Express reports, since November 30, the central province has been vaccinating children aged 15-17 with the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine. However, over 120 of the children were admitted to hospitals after exhibiting symptoms like nausea, high fever or breathing difficulties, the provincial Center for Disease Control (CDC) said Thursday. Of these, 17 had severe reactions, but their health has stabilized and they continue to be monitored at the hospital, the center said. The cause of their symptoms has yet to be confirmed by Thanh Hoa authorities. Thanh Hoa CDC director Luong Ngoc Truong said the province has stopped using the current vaccine batch. "We still have other batches, also Pfizer vaccines, so we will continue vaccinating the children," he said. The suspended batch would be put into storage and could be used later for other groups like adults, Truong added. Vu Van Chinh, director of the Ha Trung District General Hospital, said side-effects following vaccination was normal, but are more likely to happen in children than adults. "Those who have reactions or faint need to be separated so no chain reaction occurs," said Chinh.

 Virus cases are rising among children in South African hospitals. — The children had gone to the hospital for various reasons: One had jaundice, another malaria. A third had a broken bone. But once they were admitted, they all tested positive for the coronavirus, a worrying trend in South African hospitals that hints at how transmissible the new variant, Omicron, may be.The doctors in the children’s wards of two large hospitals in Johannesburg say they have not seen a spike in admissions, and they still do not know whether the children have Omicron. But the increase in the number of those who test positive after coming in may provide a glimpse into the behavior of the heavily mutated variant that was discovered just last month, and about which little is known.“Our suspicion is that Covid positivity rates in the community setting are very, very high at the moment and increasing,” said Dr. Gary Reubenson, a pediatrician at the Rahima Moosa Mother and Child Hospital in Johannesburg.Young children under 12 are not yet eligible for Covid-19 vaccines in South Africa, which also leaves them more vulnerable.While it is still too soon to draw any conclusions about the severity of the illness caused by Omicron, early modeling and analysissuggest that it may move twice as fast as the Delta variant.“What is scary now is the proportion of patients who are positive among those who are admitted is very high,” said Dr. Sithembiso Velaphi, who works at the Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital in Soweto. “The number of admissions overall has not increased.”And although the number of young patients is relatively small, doctors noted that few of the children so far have needed oxygen.The number of coronavirus cases in South Africa continues to rise exponentially in a fourth wave of infections that epidemiologists believe is driven by Omicron. Since the variant was first sequenced and announced by South African doctors on Nov. 25, it has become the dominant version among samples tested in the country.

Japan confirms 8 more cases of Omicron variant infection - Japan has confirmed eight more cases of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, the government said Friday, bringing the total number of infections from the new strain in the country to 12. The government will handle the eight, who have a travel history to the United States, Mozambique, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as having close contact with a total of about 470 people on five flights that arrived in Japan with them from Nov. 28 to Tuesday, according to the health ministry. The eight, aged between below 10 to in their 60s, landed at either Tokyo's Haneda airport, Narita airport near the capital or Kansai International Airport in Osaka Prefecture, the ministry said. One of the eight was a man in his 40s who arrived at Kansai airport from Los Angeles last Sunday, making it the first time that an Omicron case has been detected at the western Japan airport. Of the eight, two people are relatives of the first case of the variant confirmed in Japan -- a Namibian diplomat who arrived from the African country on Nov. 28, according to a government source. The two family members tested negative when they entered Japan with him, but their test results were positive last Saturday and Wednesday, respectively. Including the two, all the eight people had no symptoms when they entered Japan. However, three of them -- men aged in their 40s to 60s with a travel history to Congo -- currently have symptoms such as fever, sore throat and difficulty in breathing. Seven people had received two doses of vaccines. The eight were confirmed to be infected at facilities designated by the quarantine offices of the airports.

Hundreds of millions to remove lead pipes flowing into Illinois as city replaced just a fraction of total this year - Illinois is expected to get $288 million for lead-pipe replacements and other water-related programs in the coming weeks under the recently passed federal infrastructure law, money that advocates hope will force Chicago and other cities to act on promises to address a major health threat. Chicago has nearly 400,000 lead-service lines for drinking water, the highest number for any U.S. city. Critics say city officials should have tackled the multi-billion dollar problem years ago, and Mayor Lori Lightfoot last year criticized former Mayor Rahm Emanuel for not replacing the lines, saying the “time for reckoning is now.” Her administration has since overseen only a small number of lead-line conversions after promising hundreds would be completed. It’s not yet known how much money Chicago will eventually get with the federal windfall, which is the first annual allotment over five years. With so many homes in need of replacements, it will cost billions of dollars and the initial money won’t be able to solve the problem entirely. However, with hundreds of millions expected to flow into the state over the next several years, Lightfoot will be hard pressed to maintain a go-slow approach. “This is really a once in a lifetime opportunity for a problem that has been plaguing Chicago for decades,” said Erik Olson, a senior strategist at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington. “Now that there’s money, there really isn’t an excuse not to do this.” The NRDC has advocated for cities to recognize lead pipes as a crisis and replace them with any means possible.

‘We’re losing IQ points’: the lead poisoning crisis unfolding among US children - Turokk Dow is one of about 87,000 young children who are diagnosed with lead poisoning in the US each year, more than three decades after the neurotoxin was banned as an ingredient in paint, gasoline and water pipes. Today, lead lingers in houses and apartments, yards and water lines, and wherever states and communities ramp up testing, it becomes clear that the nation’s lead problem is worse than we realized, experts say.A study published in JAMA Pediatrics this fall suggested that more than half of all US children have detectable levels of lead in their blood – and that elevated blood lead levels were closely associated with race, poverty and living in older housing. Black children are particularly at risk.“Most American children are exposed to lead, a substance that is not safe at any level,” said co-author Dr Harvey Kaufman, a senior medical director at Quest Diagnostics, which led the study. According to the CDC, “[e]ven low levels of lead in blood have been shown to negatively affect a child’s intelligence, ability to pay attention, and academic achievement.”“This is an entire United States issue,” Kaufman said. “It really is everywhere.” The nation’s programs to detect lead before it poisons children and to identify those who have been exposed are astoundingly slipshod. “We literally are using the blood of our children as detectors of environmental contamination,” said Dr Mona Hanna-Attisha, the pediatrician who helped to expose the drinking water crisis in Flint, Michigan.States like Rhode Island, which requires all children to get two screenings for lead poisoning by age three, are investing in early detection of lead poisoning. But such initiatives also show the difficulty of removing the toxin from our everyday environments.Without robust testing, states risk not knowing how bad their lead problem is and leaving sick children behind. “The lead epidemic is the longest-running epidemic in our country,” said Liz Colón, a Rhode Island woman whose son suffered severe lead poisoning two decades ago and who has since become a national advocate for solving the problem.“There are little Flint, Michigans everywhere,” she said. “But if you don’t test for it, it’s like it doesn’t exist.” Because of decades of pressure from the parents and organizers who run the Children’s Lead Action Program, Rhode Island is doing far more testing of children’s blood than most states in the nation. What health advocates there have discovered is that lead contamination, often thought of as a thing of the past, persists in many communities, with hundreds of new cases of poisoned children discovered every year. Terri Wright, who grew up in public housing in Providence, says she doesn’t know whether the lead that poisoned her came from the peeling paint or the lead water pipes in her building. But she learned first-hand how the substance can leave lasting marks on a young person’s life. “I remember spending my childhood in this cloud between being sick and being sad,” said Wright, 51, who still suffers from the social anxiety she developed from being too weak and feverish to play with other children. Today, she does not trust the tap water in Providence, and buys six to eight cases of bottled water for her family every week.Wright recently joined dozens of Rhode Island activists on the steps of the state capitol, demanding the replacement all the lead pipes in the state’s aging housing stock.

Benton Harbor, Michigan water crisis: More of the same toxic politics - It has been a month-and-a-half since Democratic Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer issued a state of emergency in response to lead contamination of Benton Harbor, Michigan's water system. It took almost three years for the state to order residents of the city to stop drinking from their poisoned taps, from the time testing revealed a general lead contamination level of 22 parts-per-billion (ppb) in the city (well above the 15 ppb federal action level) to October this year. The city of approximately 10,000 sits on the eastern shore of Lake Michigan, the fourth largest source of freshwater in the world.Until September, the city pursued a two-decades-long plan to replace the disintegrating lead pipe infrastructure responsible for the contamination, shrinking to five years that month and 18 months following Whitmer's emergency declaration and expedition. To this day, the city has only replaced a few hundred of the thousands of lead pipes in the city-owned plumbing system. Concretely, only the bidding process has begun, in which the city will choose a company to replace the pipes in the 18-month time frame outlined by Governor Whitmer. There are no plans to address the widespread existence of lead piping in home plumbing, which caused some homes to test as high as 800 ppb and above.In early November, the Michigan Senate Oversight Committee opened a legislative investigation into the state response to the Benton Harbor crisis. The committee received 11,000 pages of internal documents from the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (EGLE), including emails and an accompanying letter from Liesl Clark, director of EGLE. Much of the text of these documents contained back-and-forth finger-pointing between state and city officials, with scientific discussion and organized planning for response efforts pushed aside.While Clark’s letter aimed to divert attention away from EGLE, which she claimed went “beyond legal requirements” with their response efforts, the magnitude of the crisis still remains. Regarding EGLE's communication efforts, Clark admitted, despite what she called “significant communication over the past three years,” many residents continued to drink and use lead-contaminated water. This usage continued up to the state government's official direction to stop using tap water—including filtered tap water—and use provided bottled water.Even though bottled water is now freely distributed for Benton Harbor residents regularly, the distribution sites are overwhelmed. As the winter arrives, residents visiting these sites spend hours in line, facing the added cost of gasoline as they wait in their cars to stay warm. The logistical inefficiencies, financial costs, lack of communication of the dangers of lead poisoning to residents, and a lengthy timetable for completely fixing the lead issue will result in many residents continuing to use poisoned tap water.

Long-term particulate matter pollution is associated with high blood pressure - According to the WHO, air pollution is the greatest health risk worldwide, accounting for more than 4.2 million deaths annually. In addition, chronic exposure to particulate matter contributes to the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and in particular has been associated with high blood pressure, according to a study published in Scientific Reports by the Biomedical Research Networking Centre in Diabetes and Associated Metabolic Disorders (CIBERDEM) and the Biomedical Research Institute of Málaga (IBIMA). The study by Gemma Rojo’s team has assessed the impact of particulate pollution on the long-term incidence of hypertension in Spain, supporting the need to improve air quality to the extent possible in order to reduce the risk of cardiometabolic diseases among the population., “Several previous studies have described the short- and long-term association of ambient air pollutants with hypertension and blood pressure levels, but few studies have addressed the association between long-term exposure to these particles and the incidence of hypertension in a prospective manner. Therefore, the di@bet.es study has offered us the opportunity to do so in the Spanish population”. Gemma Rojo, head of the CIBERDEM group at the IBIMA and final signatory of the study, states that “our data is consistent with a large body of evidence suggesting that air pollution may contribute to the pathogenesis of hypertension. It also supports the idea that the particulate component of air pollution is the greatest threat to the cardiovascular system.” In this regard, she states, "Although previous associations between exposure to gaseous pollutants and hypertension have shown some discrepancies, most studies reporting long-term exposure to particulate matter and incident high blood pressure have reported positive associations consistent with our findings." In short, the CIBERDEM study contributes to assessing the impact of particulate pollution on the incidence of high blood pressure in Spain and, as Sergio Valdés explains, “our results support the need to improve air quality to the extent possible in order to reduce the risk of high blood pressure among our population, as even moderate levels such as those we report here increase the risk significantly.”

New study shows link between long-term exposure to air pollution and fatty liver disease -Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a growing global health challenge and poses a substantial economic burden. A large-scale epidemiologic study in China has identified links between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and MAFLD. These links are exacerbated by unhealthy lifestyles and the presence of central obesity, report scientists in theJournal of Hepatology, the official journal of the European Association for the Study of the Liver, published by Elsevier. The incidence of MAFLD has increased steadily since the 1980s, currently affecting a quarter of the global population and a majority of patients with adult-onset diabetes and poses a substantial global burden. In Asia, MAFLD increased to 40% between 2012 and 2017. Formerly known as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), it may progress to end-stage liver diseases such as cirrhosis and liver cancer, liver transplantation and liver-related death. Accumulating animal studies have shown that breathing air pollutants may increase the risk of MAFLD. For instance, fine particulate matter exposure may trigger a nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-like phenotype, impair hepatic glucose metabolism, and promote hepatic fibrogenesis. “A growing number of studies have suggested that ambient air pollution, which is the biggest environmental problem caused by industrialization, may increase the risk of metabolic disorders such as insulin resistance and dyslipidemia, and related diseases such as type 2 diabetes mellitus and metabolic syndrome. However, epidemiologic evidence for the association was limited, so we conducted this research to improve our understanding of the effects of air pollution on human health and also to help reduce the burden of MAFLD.” Researchers found that long-term exposure to ambient air pollution may increase the odds of MAFLD, especially in individuals who are male, smokers, and alcohol drinkers, and those who consume a high fat diet. Unhealthy lifestyle behaviors and an excess accumulation of fat in the abdominal area may exacerbate the harmful effects. “Our findings add to the growing evidence of ambient pollution's damaging effects on metabolic function and related organs,” commented Dr. Zhao and his co-investigators. “However, physical activity did not seem to modify the associations between air pollution and MAFLD. We suggest that future studies explore whether the timing, intensity, and form of physical activity can mitigate the harmful effects of air pollution.

Air pollution reduces the benefits of physical activity on the brain - A new study shows that people who do vigorous physical activities, like jogging or playing competitive sports, in areas with higher air pollution may show less benefit from that exercise when it comes to certain markers of brain disease. The markers examined in the study included white matter hyperintensities, which indicate injury to the brain’s white matter, and gray matter volume. Larger gray matter volumes and smaller white matter hyperintensity volumes are markers of overall better brain health. The research is published in the December 8, 2021, online issue of Neurology^®, the medical journal of the American Academy of Neurology. “Vigorous exercise may increase exposure to air pollution and prior studies have shown adverse effects of air pollution on the brain,” said study author Melissa Furlong, PhD, of the University of Arizona in Tucson. “We did show that physical activity is associated with improved markers of brain health in areas with lower air pollution. However, some beneficial effects essentially disappeared for vigorous physical activity in areas with the highest levels of air pollution. That’s not to say people should avoid exercise. Overall, the effect of air pollution on brain health was modest—roughly equivalent to half the effect of one year of aging, while the effects of vigorous activity on brain health were much larger—approximately equivalent to being three years younger.” The study looked at 8,600 people with an average age of 56 from the UK Biobank, a large biomedical database. People’s exposure to pollution, including nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter, which are particles of liquids or solids suspended in the air, was estimated with land use regression. A land use regression study models air pollution levels based on air monitors and land use characteristics like traffic, agriculture and industrial sources of air pollution. People who got the greatest amounts of vigorous physical activity each week, on average, had 800 cm³ gray matter volume, compared to an average of 790 cm³ gray matter volume in people who did not get any vigorous exercise. Researchers showed that air pollution exposures did not alter the effects of physical activity on gray matter volume. However, researchers did find air pollution exposures altered the effects of vigorous physical activity when looking at white matter hyperintensities. After adjusting for age, sex and other covariates, researchers found that vigorous physical activity reduced white matter hyperintensities in areas of low air pollution, but these benefits were not found among those in high air pollution areas.

Two Memphis companies were found to boost cancer risks where Black people breathe. A knee on the neck may not kill people in South Memphis. But toxins in the air might. For Justin J. Pearson, the Black Lives Matter chant, “I Can’t Breathe,” has always been about more than Black men like Eric Garner and George Floyd struggling to get enough air into their lungs as white police officers choke the life out of them. It’s been about Black communities, like the South Memphis one that he grew up in, risking breathing in oxygen that might kill them. Which is why a recent report which found that two Memphis companies are primarily responsible for spewing carcinogens into the air doesn’t surprise Pearson, who helped lead the fight which ultimately stopped Plains All American Pipeline LP from running the Byhalia Connection – a crude-oil pipeline – through his community. “It’s not the immediacy of the knee on our neck,” Pearson said. “It’s the slow lynching that is occurring in our communities through the violence of the toxic air… “Both of my grandmothers have died from cancer…two of my uncles are on steroids for asthma, and my older brother is on steroids and has severe asthma. None of the data is surprising, because none of the placement of these toxic facilities is accidental. “This has been happening in our communities for decades.” According to an analysis of Environmental Protection Administration data by ProPublica, a Pulitizer Prize-winning, non-profit investigative news organization, SFI Tennessee, a steel plate fabrication company that is located in the lower-middle income community of Oakhaven, and Stella Jones Corporation, which makes pressure-treated wood products in South Memphis, are primary contributors to elevated cancer risks in their areas. Both companies are estimated to have contributed to 99 percent or higher of the cancer risks in their areas.

Microplastics May Increase Antibiotic Resistance, Study Finds - A new study from Rice University has found that microplastic particles may allow bacteria to develop higher resistance to antibiotics. As microplastics are just about everywhere — in your takeout containers, tea bags, and clothing — the research is concerning. With higher antibiotic resistance, bacteria can make it harder for human immune systems to fight off infections.Scientists at Rice University's George R. Brown School of Engineering found that microplastics offer a habitat for bacteria, chemical contaminants and genetic materials that give bacteria higher antibiotic resistance. As the plastic particles age, they release chemicals that can make vectors more receptive to horizontal gene transfer. This is how the antibiotic-resistance genes (ARGs) can then spread.The study, published in the Journal of Hazardous Materials, found that microplastics ranging in size from 100 nanometers to five micrometers in diameter offer an ideal amount of surface area for trapping microbes, which are then open to horizontal gene transfer as the plastics break down and release depolymerization chemicals. These chemicals weaken bacteria membranes to allow the ARGs to enter and make the microbes more resistant to antibiotics. According to the CDC, more than 2.8 million people in the U.S. alone become infected from antibiotic-resistant germs each year. As bacteria become less likely to die from existing antibiotics, it is harder for scientists and doctors to treat infections and protect public health. Increasing antibiotic resistance has often been attributed to overusing or misusing antibiotics as directed by health officials. The new study shows that resistance can also flourish without antibiotics present; instead, bacteria can grow stronger against antibiotics and deadlier through pollution.It’s not the first study to notice a link between antibiotic-resistance and microplastics. Recent research published in June 2021 noted, “Microplastics could be a carrier of ARGs between the environment and animals. Accumulation of pollutants and dense bacterial communities on microplastics provide favorable conditions for higher transfer rate and evolution of ARGs.”

Microplastic pollution aids antibiotic resistance - The Styrofoam container that holds your takeout cheeseburger may contribute to the population’s growing resistance to antibiotics.According to scientists at Rice University’s George R. Brown School of Engineering, discarded polystyrene broken down into microplastics provides a cozy home not only for microbes and chemical contaminants but also for the free-floating genetic materials that deliver to bacteria the gift of resistance. A study in the Journal of Hazardous Materials describes how the ultraviolet aging of microplastics in the environment make them apt platforms for antibiotic-resistant genes (ARGs). These genes are armored by bacterial chromosomes, phages and plasmids, all biological vectors that can spread antibiotic resistance to people, lowering their ability to fight infections.The study led by Rice civil and environmental engineer Pedro Alvarez in collaboration with researchers in China and at the University of Houston also showed chemicals leaching from the plastic as it ages increase the susceptibility of vectors to horizontal gene transfer, through which resistance spreads.“We were surprised to discover that microplastic aging enhances horizontal ARG,” said Alvarez, the George R. Brown Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and director of the Rice-based Nanotechnology Enabled Water Treatment Center. “Enhanced dissemination of antibiotic resistance is an overlooked potential impact of microplastics pollution.”The researchers found that microplastics (100 nanometers to five micrometers in diameter) aged by the ultraviolet part of sunlight have high surface areas that trap microbes. As the plastics degrade, they also leach depolymerization chemicals that breach the microbes’ membranes, giving ARGs an opportunity to invade. They noted that microplastic surfaces may serve as aggregation sites for susceptible bacteria, accelerating gene transfer by bringing the bacteria into contact with each other and with released chemicals. That synergy could enrich environmental conditions favorable to antibiotic resistance even in the absence of antibiotics, according to the study.

Microplastics found to be harmful to human cells, new study shows - High levels of ingested microplastics in the human body have the potential to have harmful effects, a new study reveals.The research - the first of its kind to quantify the levels of microplastics which may lead to harmful effects in human cells - has been led by researchers at the Hull York Medical School and the University of Hull. Evangelos Danopoulos, lead author and PHD student at Hull York Medical School, said: “This is the first-time scientists have attempted to quantify the effects of the levels of microplastics on human cells using a statistical analysis of the available published studies.“What we have found is that in toxicology tests, we are seeing reactions including cell death and allergic reactions as potential effects of ingesting or inhaling high levels of microplastics.”The study compared the concentrations of microplastics that affected cell viability to the concentrations that humans are exposed to by ingesting contaminated food and water using three previous studies by Mr Danopoulos and the Human Health and Emerging Environmental Contaminants research group at the University of Hull.These studies focused on microplastic contamination of drinking water, seafood and table salt and revealed high levels of human exposure to microplastics from consuming these.The team then compared these levels to the doses that have caused adverse effects on human cells within the toxicology studies.The toxicology studies reviewed tested for five categories of effects which were: cytotoxicity (cell death/viability); immune responses (including allergic reactions); whether microplastics can affect the cells membranes in any way or cross inside them; the cause of oxidative stress (leads to cell and tissue damage) and genotoxicity (damage genetic information in cells). The first four were found to be affected by exposure to microplastics at certain levels. “Our research shows that we are ingesting microplastics at the levels consistent with harmful effects on cells, which are in many cases the initiating event for health effects. However, the biggest uncertainty at the present time is how ingested microplastics are excreted from the body. This is a crucial point to understand the true level of risk.“Our analysis of the data showed that cell viability depends on the shape of the microplastics. Irregularly shaped microplastics, which are the majority found in the environment, are more hazardous than spherical. “So far, most toxicology studies have been testing spherical microplastics. There needs to be a shift to testing irregularly shaped ones.”

Microplastics Can Kill Human Cells at Concentrations Found in the Environment, Scientists Say -One of the major concerns surrounding plastic pollution is that microplastics may work their way from theocean or soil, into tiny organisms, up the food chain and onto our plates. However, scientists are still unsure what ingesting microplastics actually does to human health.Now, a first-of-its kind study published in the Journal of Hazardous Materials found that microplastics can result in cell death at “environmentally-relevant” levels."This is the first-time scientists have attempted to quantify the effects of the levels of microplastics on human cells using a statistical analysis of the available published studies,” lead author and Ph.D. student at Hull York Medical School Evangelos Danopoulos said in a University of York press release. "What we have found is that in toxicology tests, we are seeing reactions including cell death and allergic reactions as potential effects of ingesting or inhaling high levels of microplastics."The researchers reviewed previous studies that looked at the impacts of microplastics on cells. In particular, the studies tested for five different effects:

1. Cytotoxicity, or cell death.
2. Immune responses like allergic reactions.
3. Impacts on cell membranes or the ability to penetrate them.
4. The ability to cause oxidative stress, which can cause cell and tissue damage.
5. Genotoxicity, or the ability to damage a cell’s genetic information.

They found that microplastics could contribute to the first four effects at certain levels. In particular, microplastic concentrations of 10 micrograms per milliliter could harm cell viability and concentrations of 20 micrograms per milliliter could generate an allergic reaction, the study authors wrote. The researchers also compared the concentrations that harmed cells to concentrations that humans might reasonably ingest. They looked at three previous studies conducted by Danopoulos and the Human Health and Emerging Environmental Contaminants research group at the University of Hull, which counted microplastics in drinking water, sea food and table salt. "Our research shows that we are ingesting microplastics at the levels consistent with harmful effects on cells, which are in many cases the initiating event for health effects,” Danopoulos said in the press release. “[T]he biggest uncertainty at the present time is how ingested microplastics are excreted from the body,” Danopoulos added. “This is a crucial point to understand the true level of risk.” It is possible that human beings consume between 39,000 to 52,000 microplastic particles a year, The Independent reported.

‘Disastrous’ Use of Plastics in Agriculture Threatens Soil and Human Health, UN Report Warns - A lot of the talk surrounding plastic pollution focuses on its impact on marine ecosystems. But there may actually be more microplastic pollution in the soil than in the ocean, according to UN research.The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has released a report warning of the “disastrous” impacts of the use of plastics in agriculture.“The report serves as a loud call for decisive action to curb the disastrous use of plastics across the agricultural sectors,” FAO deputy director general Maria Helena Semedo wrote in the report foreword.Plastics are used in agriculture for a variety of purposes, from mulching films to plastic tree guards to controlled-release fertilizers coated with polymers. In fact, world agriculture used 12.5 million tonnes (approximately 13.8 million U.S. tons) of plastic for plant and animal production in 2019 and 37.3 million tonnes (approximately 41.1 million tonnes) for food packaging the same year.While plastic can be beneficial to agriculture, its widespread use also raises concerns about its impact onpublic health and the environment when it degrades.This is especially concerning for the world’s soils. When microplastics from mulching film build up in surface soils, for example, they reduce agricultural yields. There is also a concern that microplastics in agricultural soils could work their way up the food chain to harm human health. Some plastics contain toxic chemicalsthemselves, and plastics can also collect and transport diseases and chemicals when they enter the ocean.University of Sheffield professor Jonathan Leake told The Guardian that there was evidence that plastic pollution in the soil harms earthworms, which are important for soil health.“Plastic pollution of agricultural soils is a pervasive, persistent problem that threatens soil health throughout much of the world,” he said. “We are currently adding large amounts of these unnatural materials into agricultural soils without understanding their long-term effects.”The UN agreed that more research is needed to understand how plastic pollution is impacting the world’s soils.“The trouble is we don’t know how much long-term damage the breaking down of these products is doing to agricultural soils,”

Plastics Use in Farming Threatens Food Safety and Human Health, FAO Warns - The United Nations Food and Agriculture Association (FAO) published a report this week addressing how the current use of plastics in agriculture threatens food safety and human health.In recent years the impact of plastics – particularly microplastics – on the health of oceans has stimulated increased concern. The FAO report, Assessment of agricultural plastics and their sustainability: A call for action, argues that the use of plastics in agriculture poses an even greater threat to food security, people’s health, and the environment.The use of plastics has become ubiquitous in agriculture since their introduction in the 1950s. Per the FAO’s statement launching the report:According to data collated by the agency’s experts, agricultural value chains each year use 12.5 million tonnes of plastic products. A further 37.3 million tonnes are used in food packaging. The crop production and livestock sectors were found to be the largest users, accounting for 10.2 million tonnes per year collectively, followed by fisheries and aquaculture with 2.1 million tonnes, and forestry with 0.2 million tonnes. Asia was estimated to be the largest user of plastics in agricultural production, accounting for almost half of global usage.In the absence of viable alternatives, demand for plastic in agriculture is only set to increase. Demand for plastics in agriculture is only expected to increase. The FAO predicts that global demand for greenhouse, mulching ,and silage films will increase by 50 percent, from 6.1 million tonnes in 2018 to 9.5 million tonnes in 2030. In ‘Disastrous’ plastic use in farming threatens food safety – UN, the Guardian emphasized the connection between the use of plastics and the presence of microplastics in soils:“Soils are one of the main receptors of agricultural plastics and are known to containlarger quantities of microplastics than oceans,” she said. “Microplastics can accumulate in food chains, threatening food security, food safety and potentially human health.” Global soils are the source of all life on land but the FAO warned in December 2020 thattheir future looked “bleak” without action to halt degradation. Microplastic pollution is also a global problem, pervading the planet from the summit of Mount Everest to thedeepest ocean trenches. Farmers swathe their land with plastics worldwide, while not comprehending the longer-term costs of such practices. Per the FAO statement: Being man-made, there are few microorganisms capable of degrading polymers, meaning that once in the environment, they may fragment and remain there for decades. Of the estimated 6.3 billion tonnes of plastics produced up to 2015, almost 80 percent has not been disposed of properly. Once in the natural environment, plastics can cause harm in several ways. The effects of large plastic items on marine fauna have been well documented. However, as these plastics begin to disintegrate and degrade, their impacts begin to be exerted at the cellular level, affecting not only individual organisms but also, potentially, entire ecosystems. Microplastics (plastics less than 5 mm in size) are thought to present specific risks to animal health, but recent studies have detected traces of microplastic particles in human faeces and placentas. There is also evidence of mother-to-foetus transmission of much smaller nanoplastics in rats.

 Researchers unmask the environmental impacts of COVID-19 - A new study has found face mask litter increased by 9,000% from March to October 2020. It shows a direct link between national legislation and the occurrence of discarded waste that included face masks and other COVID-19 related personal protective equipment. Researchers from the University of Portsmouth are urging Governments to put in place policies and legislation for the disposal of littered face masks when making the wearing of them mandatory. The study, published today in the journal Nature Sustainability, was based on findings from two open source databases: the extensive "COVID-19 Government Response Tracker" and a litter collection app called "Litterati". More than two million pieces of litter were collected across 11 countries, which between them had a range of COVID-19 policy responses. Using these databases, researchers were able to map the countries policy responses (lockdown severity, mask policies), and gain a base line of litter proportions from September 2019 through the first six months of the pandemic. "Overall the study shows the impact that legislating the use of items such as masks can have on their occurrence as litter. We found that littered masks had an exponential increase from March 2020, resulting in an 84-fold increase by October 2020. There is a clear need to ensure that requiring the use of these items is accompanied with education campaigns to limit their release into the environment." "The negative impacts of COVID-19 on our daily lives are well known. In April 2020, it was beginning to appear that there were some small positives in the decrease in human activity caused by lockdown, with improvements in air quality and water quality. Reduced human activity also saw reports of animals coming back to towns and cities. At the same time, reports of masks and gloves appearing on beaches and streets, where they hadn't been before, started to emerge. As COVID-19 spread, so did the news reports of this new type of litter. National lockdowns made it incredibly difficult to go out and visit these places to gather evidence of what were anecdotal accounts."

California mandatory composting program begins in January. - Banana peels, chicken bones and leftover veggies won’t have a place in California trashcans under the nation’s largest mandatory residential food waste recycling program that’s set to take effect in January. The effort is designed to keep landfills in the most populous U.S. state clear of food waste that damages the atmosphere as it decays. When food scraps and other organic materials break down they emit methane, a greenhouse gas more potent and damaging in the short-term than carbon emissions from fossil fuels. To avoid those emissions, California plans to start converting residents’ food waste into compost or energy, becoming the second state in the U.S. to do so after Vermont launched a similar program last year. Most people in California will be required to toss excess food into green waste bins rather than the trash. Municipalities will then turn the food waste into compost or use it to create biogas, an energy source that is similar to natural gas. The push by California reflects growing recognition about the role food waste plays in damaging the environment across the United States, where up to 40% of food is wasted, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. A handful of states and nations, including France, have passed laws requiring grocery stores and other large businesses to recycle or donate excess food to charities, but California’s program targets households and businesses. The state passed a law in 2016 aimed at reducing methane emissions by significantly cutting down on discarded food. Organic material like food and yard waste makes up half of everything in California landfills and a fifth of the state’s methane emissions, according to CalRecycle. Starting in January, all cities and counties that provide trash services are supposed to have food recycling programs in place and grocery stores must donate edible food that otherwise would be thrown away to food banks or similar organizations. Most local governments will allow homeowners and apartment dwellers to dump excess food into yard waste bins, with some providing countertop containers to hold the scraps for a few days before taking it outside. Some areas can get exemptions for parts of the law, like rural locations where bears rummage through trash cans. Governments can avoid penalties by self-reporting to the state by March if they don’t have programs in place and outlining plans for starting them. Cities that refuse to comply could eventually be fined up to $10,000 per day. Ken Prue, deputy director of San Diego’s environmental services department, said the city put nearly $9 million in this year’s budget to buy more waste bins, kitchen top containers and trucks to haul the additional waste.

Up to 900 Bison to Be Removed From Yellowstone This Winter - As many as 900 bison could be removed from Yellowstone National Park this winter. Wildlife officials and tribal entities agreed on Wednesday to the number of the large mammals that could be either hunted, slaughtered or quarantined this winter, The New York Times reported. “Allowing the bison population to grow indefinitely could cause overgrazing in some areas and possibly mass starvation of animals in Yellowstone, as well as larger migrations and greater conflict outside the park,”Yellowstone National Park explained.For these reasons, bison are removed every winter. The animals have a high survival rate and their population grows by 10 to 17 percent each year, but there is not really room in the park to support such large populations. Predation by wolves does little to curb these numbers because bison are large animals that can defend themselves from attacks. A total of 834 Yellowstone bison were killed during the 2019-2020 winter season, while officials recommended culling between 500 and 700 in 2020-2021. However, this goal was not met by about 200 animals, the Bozeman Daily Chronicle reported. Another reason the bison are killed is that, as they grow beyond the boundaries of the park, they spread into Montana, where very few bison are allowed to roam outside the park. The state is concerned that the bison will spread a disease called brucellosis to cattle, the Bozeman Daily Chronicle explained. Brucellosis is a bacterial disease that can cause cows to abort their calves, The AP reported.Despite these concerns, there has never been a documented case of a bison passing brucellosis to cattle, the Bozeman Daily Chronicle reported. Elk, however, have been known to spread the disease.“That doesn’t seem to get much attention and discussion,” National Bison Association President Donnis Baggett told The New York Times. “Everybody blames it on the bison.”

8 Wolves Poisoned in Oregon, Including an Entire Pack -- Oregon police are seeking assistance in the poisoning of eight wolves in the state since February.Conservation groups are also offering a $43,000 reward for information about the killings, The Guardian reported.“We are furious and appalled. These poisonings are a significant blow to wolf recovery in Oregon,” Defenders of Wildlife senior northwest representative Sristi Kamal said in a press release from the conservation groups emailed to EcoWatch. “Such a targeted attack against these incredible creatures is unacceptable and we hope our reward will help bring the criminals who did this to justice.”The Oregon State Police offered a timeline of the killings on Wednesday:

• February 9: After one dead wolf was reported to state police, troopers found all five members of the Catherine Pack dead, along with a deceased magpie. The wolves were found southeast of Mount Harris in Union County.
• March 11: Another dead female wolf from the Keating Pack was found in roughly the same location after her collar let off a mortality signal. A dead skunk and magpie were also found nearby.
• April: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service lab reports confirmed that all of the deadanimals had been poisoned. Another dead male wolf from the Five Points Pack was found in Union County.
• July: A young female wolf from the Clark Creek Pack was also found dead.

The last two wolves were poisoned with different substances, and lab results indicated the death of the last female wolf might be related to the first six poisonings.“Oregon State Police Fish and Wildlife Troopers have continued in their investigation in the intervening months but have exhausted leads in the case,” the police wrote. They are therefore asking the public for help.

Groups offering $43K reward for information on poisoned Oregon wolves | TheHill --Conservation groups are offering nearly $43,000 for any information on wolves that were poisoned in Oregon this year. The organizations Wolves of the Rockies, Trap Free Montana, The 06 Legacy Project, Greater Hells Canyon Council, the Humane Society of the United States and other private donations raised the reward for information about the wolves to $42,977, The Oregonian reported.The poisonings, which are under police investigation, were discovered after a wolf with a tracking collar stopped moving in February, according to the Oregonian. When state police went to the scene, the whole Catherine Pack, three males and two females, were dead. Another dead female wolf was found a month later.Tests in April showed all six of the wolves were poisoned, with more poisoned wolves found in the following months. “We were heartbroken to hear of these horrific and inhumane killings, and condemn in the strongest terms this atrocity,” Marc Cooke, president of Wolves of the Rockies, said.“But this slaughter did not occur in a vacuum. We hope to see those responsible for the illegal killings brought to justice,” Cooke added.

Florida to Try Feeding Starving Manatees, an Unprecedented Move --After long debate, officials in Florida have decided to test feeding wild manatees near Cape Canaveral. The move is unprecedented, as feeding wildlife is considered illegal. But with hundreds of manatees dying of starvation in 2021, wildlife conservationists are desperate to save these creatures.For weeks, state officials have been considering whether or not to create a pilot program to feed the animals. An official pilot program is set to be revealed this week, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has given approval for a limited feeding trial.The pilot program will launch near the Florida Power & Light plant in Cape Canaveral. In the winter, manatees tend to swim in the Indian River Lagoon to keep warm, as warm water is discharged from the plant into these nearby waters. Officials will feed the manatees a variety of greens, including cabbage and lettuce. The plan is to use a controlled method for feeding, such as a conveyor belt, to limit human interactions. Officials stress that this trial is not a green light for people to start tossing food into the water for manatees, an act that remains illegal.In 2021 alone, over 1,000 manatees have died, many of whom died of starvation caused by pollution. This number is more than double that of 2020, when 498 manatees died. Over the past 11 years, seagrasses in the Indian River Lagoon have decreased by about 58%, leaving manatees with less to eat.“It’s the entire ecosystem that is affected by this and will be affected for a decade to come,” said Patrick Rose, executive director of Save The Manatee Club. “This is a necessary stopgap measure. It is a problem created by man and man is going to have to solve it.”Seagrasses provide essential food for manatees, and they are a known carbon sink. Seagrass is responsible for up to 10% of the ocean’s carbon storage capacity and can capture carbon about 35 times faster than tropical rainforests. But human pollution, like agricultural runoff and sewage, creates breeding grounds for harmful blue-green algae in waters. This algae then blocks sunlight from reaching the seagrasses, leaving manatees without food and killing off an important carbon sink.

Biden seeks reversal of Trump water pipeline approval - The Biden administration is seeking to undo last-minute Trump-era approvals of a controversial water pipeline project in Southern California. In a court filing Friday, the Biden administration said its predecessors used a "rushed process" to grant rights of way to Cadiz Inc. for shipping water from the Mojave Desert to the Los Angeles area using a former natural gas pipeline and did not adequately follow the National Environmental Policy Act. "Due to the lack of analysis," Justice Department lawyers wrote, "the agency does not know the source of the water that will be transported through the pipeline and therefore could not have analyzed the potential impacts on the environment or historic properties of drawing down the water at its source." The case touches on one of the of the longest-running water development disputes in California. For decades, Cadiz has been exploring ways to deliver water from a groundwater aquifer under its property to Southern California. Conservationists have strongly opposed those efforts, contending that drawing down the aquifer would threaten a fragile desert ecosystem. DOJ said in its filing that Cadiz has pursued multiple potential routes to ship water. At issue in the current case is a plan to convert part of an abandoned natural gas pipeline to shuttle the water. In order to to use the pipeline, Cadiz needed the Bureau of Land Management to approve its use of rights of way over federal lands for a pipeline that it purchased from a natural gas company. Cadiz petitioned BLM for the approval to convert the existing right of way to use the pipeline for water in May 2020, saying it could transport about 55,000 acre-feet of water annually, according to DOJ’s filing. An acre-foot is about 326,000 gallons, roughly as much as a Los Angeles family of four uses in a year. In a statement, Cadiz said this project is separate from the desert aquifer effort that has been the subject of lobbying on Captiol Hill and other legal challenges. It also pointed out DOJ’s motion will be subject to a hearing at the court in March before the judge rules on it.

Iconic SC river where ‘Deliverance’ was filmed sparks conflict with dam removal - When a power company built a dam on the Georgia-South Carolina border nearly a century ago, the work covered a four-mile stretch of the lower Chattooga River with so much water that the river’s rocky channel vanished. The dam, however, isn’t a major power source these days, and a conflict is brewing over whether to tear down the expansive structure that has blocked the lower part of an acclaimed southern river from flowing freely. In November, seven organizations filed paperwork with the federal government that they hope will eventually persuade Georgia Power Co. to tear down the dam at Lake Tugalo northwest of Clemson in Oconee County. They are trying to stop Georgia Power from conducting a major upgrade to the Tugalo dam, arguing that the structure should instead be considered for removal. The effort by environmentalists could take years, but If successful, tearing down the 160-foot tall Tugalo dam would mark one of the largest dam removal projects in the Carolinas and Georgia, they say. Dozens of dams have been removed in the region in the past 30 years, but many have been on small streams and they were shorter than the one on the lower Chattooga. All told, about four miles of the lower Chattooga would be restored, as well as several miles of the nearby Tallulah River in Georgia, according to a Nov. 24 motion filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Lake Tugalo, sometimes spelled Tugaloo, would no longer exist if the dam is eventually removed.

Coral reefs of western Indian Ocean at risk of collapse: study - Rising sea temperatures and overfishing threaten coral reefs in the western Indian Ocean with complete collapse in the next 50 years, according to a groundbreaking study of these marine ecosystems. The findings, published in the journal Nature Sustainability on Monday, warned that reefs along the eastern coast of Africa and island nations like Mauritius and Seychelles faced a high risk of extinction unless urgent action was taken. For the first time, researchers were able to assess the vulnerability of individual reefs across the vast western reaches of the Indian Ocean, and identify the main threats to coral health. They found that all reefs in this region faced "complete ecosystem collapse and irreversible damage" within decades, and that ocean warming meant some coral habitats were already critically endangered. "The findings are quite serious. These reefs are vulnerable to collapse," lead author David Obura, founding director at CORDIO East Africa, a Kenya-based oceans research institute, told AFP. "There's nowhere in the region where the reefs are in full health. They've all declined somewhat, and that will continue." The study, co-authored with the International Union for Conservation of Nature, assessed 11,919 square kilometres of reef, representing about five percent of the global total. Reefs fringing picturesque island nations like Mauritius, Seychelles, the Comoros and Madagascar—popular ecotourism destinations heavily reliant on their marine environment—were most at risk, researchers said. Coral reefs cover only a tiny fraction—0.2 percent—of the ocean floor, but they are home to at least a quarter of all marine animals and plants. Besides anchoring marine ecosystems, they also provide protein, jobs and protection from storms and shoreline erosion for hundreds of millions of people worldwide. Climate change posed the biggest threat to coral health overall in the western Indian Ocean, where scientists say seawater temperatures are warming faster than in other parts of the globe. Oceans absorb more than 90 percent of the excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions, shielding land surfaces but generating huge, long-lasting marine heatwaves that are pushing many species of corals past their limits of tolerance. But along the east coast of continental Africa from Kenya to South Africa, pressure from overfishing was also identified in this latest study as another major scourge on reef ecosystems. This underscored the need to urgently address both global threats to coral reefs from climate change, and local ones such as overfishing, Obura said. "We need to give these reefs the best chance. In order to do that, we have to reduce the drivers, reverse the pressure on reefs," he said.

 Extreme Weather and Pandemic Help Drive Global Food Prices to 46-Year High -- Global food prices in November rose 1.2% compared to October, and were at their highest level since June 2011 (unadjusted for inflation), the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in its monthly report on December 2. After adjusting for inflation, 2021 food prices averaged for the 11 months of 2021 are the highest in 46 years.n The high prices come despite expectations that total global production of grains in 2021 will set an all-time record: 0.7% higher than the previous record set in 2020. But because of higher demand (in part, from an increased amount of wheat and corn used to feed animals), the 2021 harvest is not expected to meet consumption requirements in 2021/2022, resulting in a modest drawdown in global grain stocks by the end of 2022, to their lowest levels since 2015/2016. The November increase in global food prices was largely the result of a surge in prices of grains and dairy products, with wheat prices a dominant driver. In an interview at fortune.com, Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities market research at Rabobank, blamed much of the increase in wheat prices on drought and high temperatures hitting major wheat producers including the U.S., Canada, and Russia. Drought and heat in the U.S. caused a 40% decline in the spring wheat crop in 2021, and a 10% decline in the total wheat crop (spring wheat makes up about 25% of total U.S. wheat production). Economic damages to agriculture in the U.S. are expected to exceed $5 billion in 2021, according to Aon (see Tweet below). The highest losses are expected in the Northern Plains, where the spring wheat crop was hit hard by drought and heat. Fortunately, the 2021 U.S. corn crop was estimated to be the second largest on record, 7% larger than in 2020. The 2021 soybean crop was also estimated to be second largest on record, up 5% from 2020. Food prices are complex, with weather, biofuel policies, trade policies, grain stocking policies, and fluctuating international financial conditions all important factors. High fuel prices, supply chain disruptions resulting from the pandemic, and high fertilizer prices are all contributing to the current high global food prices. According to Reuters, global fertilizer prices have increased 80% this year, reaching their highest levels since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Primary causes of the current high prices include extreme weather events (particularly the February cold wave in Texas and Hurricane Ida in August), which disrupted U.S. fertilizer production, and the high cost in Europe of natural gas, a key component in producing fertilizer). Fertilizer shortages threaten to reduce grain harvests in 2022, according to CF Industries, a major fertilizer producer.

 US had its third-warmest autumn on record, seventh-warmest November - November 2021 was quite warm and dry across the U.S., wrapping up a very warm autumn—and year so far—for the nation.November also brought the official close of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, which was the third most-active on record according to scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).Here are more highlights from NOAA's latest monthly U.S. climate report: The average November temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 45.2 degrees F (3.5 degrees above the 20th-century average), which placed the month at the seventh-warmest November in the 127-year record.Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah had their second-warmest November on record, with Colorado, Nebraska and Wyoming ranking among their warmest five Novembers.The nation's average precipitation across the contiguous U.S was 1.28 inches (0.95 of an inch below average), ranking as the eighth-driest November on record. Alabama and North Carolina saw their fifth-driest Novembers.It was a warm meteorological autumn (September through November) across the contiguous U.S. The average autumn temperature was 56.7 degrees F (3.1 degrees above average), making it the third-warmest meteorological autumn in the historical record. Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming ranked second warmest, with 14 additional states ranking among their five warmest autumns.The total autumn precipitation was 6.81 inches (0.07 of an inch below average), which ranked in the middle third of the seasonal record.With just one month left in 2021, the year to date (YTD, January through November) is the seventh-warmest on record—with an average temperature of 55.9 degrees F (2.1 degrees above average). Despite the drier-than-normal autumn, the U.S. continued a wet YTD, with a precipitation total of 28.06 inches (0.47 of an inch above average), ranking in the middle-third of the climate record.

At Least 70 Dead After Tornadoes Hit Several States: Live Updates -A tornado outbreak tore through several states on Friday night. At least five were struck, including Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee.The tornadoes were part of a weather system that was wreaking havoc in many parts of the country, causing substantial snowfall across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. Kentucky’s governor said Saturday morning that at least 70 had been killed in a tornado’s path of over 200 miles, and that the state’s death toll could increase to more than 100 in the coming hours.The storms caused a wall and roof to collapse at an Amazon warehouse in Illinois, leaving workers trapped inside. The authorities confirmed people had died, but did not say how many as of Saturday morning.Officials in Tennessee said three people were killed: two in Lake County and one in Obion County, in the western part of the state.In Arkansas, at least one person was killed at a nursing home in Monette, and another at a Dollar General store in nearby Leachville, according to Gov. Asa Hutchinson.The precise number of people killed and injured was not yet known, and search-and-rescue operations were continuing in several places Saturday morning.Officials across the five-state area were still assessing the extent of the damage on Saturday morning. Local news reports and videos on social media showed crumbled buildings and downed trees across the storm’s path.As of Saturday morning, about 140,000 homes were without power in Tennessee, 92,000 in Kentucky, 23,000 in Arkansas, nearly 16,000 in Illinois and 10,000 in Missouri, according to reports compiled byPowerOutage.us. The storms also caused a freight train to derail, although no injuries were reported.

Violent tornado outbreak hits U.S. South and Midwest, leaving up to 100 people dead - (+ a dozen videos) A violent tornado outbreak took place across the U.S. South and Midwest on Friday, December 10 into Saturday, December 11, 2021, placing more than 16 million people under a tornado watch.

• In 24 hours to 11:10 UTC on December 11, the NWS Storm Prediction Center logged 32 tornado reports in Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Illinois.
• One of the worst affected states is Kentucky where the death toll could reach or exceed 100.
• Kentucky was hit by numerous tornadoes, including one recognized by the NWS to be one of the longest in history.
• More than 300 000 customers were left without power, with most of them in Tennessee.

A violent tornado touched down some 40 km (25 miles) from Jonesboro, severely damaging the Monette Manor Nursing Home where at least 2 people were killed and 5 others injured. Craighead County Judge Marvin Day said at least 20 people were trapped inside.¹"Everyone has been taken out of the nursing home and is accounted for," the town's mayor Bob Blankenship said. "We have a triage center set up at the local school where people are being treated and others have been transported to local hospitals."² Initial reports said the tornado was on the ground for 90 minutes with winds in excess of 455 km/h (283 mph). Major tornado damage was reported in Kentucky, whose Governor Andy Beshear declared a state of emergency and activated the Kentucky Guard and State Police. Governor Beshear said Saturday morning there were likely over 50 deaths statewide, adding there might be anywhere from 70 to 100 fatalities due to tornado outbreak. Beshear added that one of the tornadoes, which originated in Arkansas and traversed over 320 km (200 miles) in Kentucky, is being recognized by the NWS to be one of the longest in history. "It's been one of the toughest nights in Kentucky history and some areas have been hit in ways that are hard to put into words," Beshear said in a news conference. More than 100 people were working in a factory in Mayfield that was ripped apart by a large and violent tornado. "There were about 110 people in it at the time that the tornado hit it," Beshear said. "We believe we’ll lose at least dozens of those individuals. It's very hard, really tough, and we’re praying for each and every one of those families."3 At least 100 people had to be evacuated from the Amazon distribution center in Edwardsville, Illinois, after a tornado damaged half of the building, including its roof. Several people were killed as a result. "It's devastating to see the amount of damage there and to know there were people inside when that happened," Edwardsville Police Chief Michael Fillback told CNN. Fillback said several people who were in the building were taken by bus to the police station in nearby Pontoon Beach for evaluation. Early Saturday, rescue crews were still sorting through the rubble. Fillback said the process would last for several hours. Cranes and backhoes were brought in to help move debris.4 At least 100 emergency vehicles had descended upon the warehouse about 40 km (25 miles) east of St. Louis. It wasn’t immediately clear how many people were hurt, but one person was flown by helicopter to a hospital. Three storm-related deaths were confirmed in Tennessee, said Dean Flener, spokesman for the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency. Two of the deaths occurred in Lake County, and the third was in Obion County — both in the northwestern corner of the state. Multiple people were reported trapped across Kenton, Tennessee, where the NWS reported 6 - 12 homes completely destroyed. There was one confirmed fatality and 2 injuries around nearby Defiance, Missouri.

Kentucky tornadoes: Death toll could reach 100, governor says --Gov. Andy Beshear said dozens, maybe up to 100, were killed in western Kentucky after a long and significant tornado ripped through the area overnight. "This is going to be some of the worst tornado damage that we've seen in a long time," Beshear said early Saturday. "This is likely to be the most severe tornado outbreak in our state's history.""We believe our death toll from this event will exceed 50 Kentuckians and probably end up 70 to 100," said Beshear.The city of Mayfield, Kentucky was hit particularly hard, including a candle manufacturing factory that was operating at the time the twister hit. There were 110 people in the building at the time that it was nearly collapsed by the tornado. Dozens are expected to be lost from there, Beshear said."This tornado event may surpass the 1974 super outbreak as one of the most deadly in Kentucky's history," said Kentucky Emergency Management Director Michael Dossett.Dossett went on to say that rescue efforts are underway and being conducted by local response teams while Beshear said the National Guard has been activated, with 181 guardsmen being deployed. Kentucky State Police have been working all night to save lives as well.Beshear has also requested President Joe Biden to declare a federal state of emergency.The tornado that ravaged multiple Kentucky counties also killed people in Arkansas. The supercell has been weakening and strengthening as it has moved throughout the night and morning.Beshear said the tornado that hit Mayfield was a tornado that touched down and stayed on the ground for 227 miles.That tornado started in the northeastern corner of Arkansas and followed a northeasterly path from there that took it through parts of Missouri and Tennessee before slashing into over 200 miles of Kentucky.That makes that single tornado likely to eclipse the track of the current record holding 1925 tri-state tornado as the longest tornado in terms of touchdown time in the entire nation's history. The long red circled area in this graphic shows that tornado's path.There were two more tornados reported very close to each other south of the tornado that severely hit Mayfield.The governor declared a state of emergency after 1 a.m. and he activated the Kentucky National Guard and Kentucky State Police to help the areas affected. Severe winds have been reported throughout the night as well. More damage is expected to come from that as well.

Three months after devastation of Hurricane Ida, thousands In Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana remain without permanent housing It's now been over 90 days since Hurricane Ida made landfall in southern Louisiana. That storm, which hit on the 16th anniversary of Katrina, caused some 33 deaths in the state and at least 80 deaths nationwide as the storm moved across the Northeastern US. Thousands were left without homes in several towns across southern Louisiana, especially in hard hit Terrebonne Parish. Just outside downtown Houma, an encampment of FEMA trailers, temporary housing units provided by the federal and state governments to shelter those who lost their homes in the storm, is still full after months and hundreds more are still without permanent housing. The demand for trailers has far exceeded the current availability. Hundreds of people are currently awaiting temporary housing in Houma where units are slowly being added by FEMA to the campsite on Scott Street where nearly 200 people are already being housed. “We are 90 days [since landfall] now and people don’t have homes. That’s unacceptable,” parish president Gordon Dove told WVUE. According to Dove nearly half of the homes in Terrebonne Parish received roof damage with the state government providing 625 temporary housing trailers and FEMA sending in only about 15. “We believe we will need 2600 when its all said and done,” Dove noted. Melissa Champagne had her home destroyed by Ida and was awaiting shelter aid as of late October. “I’m staying at my cousin’s house right now, with my two kids and my mother,” Champagne told Eyewitness News (WWL). She had applied weeks earlier for a temporary trailer with no results after months without a home of her own. “We can't even find rental places,” Champagne explained, “There’s nothing available.” The director of planning and zoning for Terrebonne Parish, Chris Pulask told WWL that getting people into these temporary homes should take about 7-10 days but has taken much longer in the aftermath of Ida due to lack of local contractors and the bureaucratic red tape from FEMA. “That’s sort of the frustrating part that we have going on right now,” Pulaski noted. “At the end of the day there are federal guidelines to follow and steps to follow because that’s how FEMA requires and operates.”

Deep freeze - St. Petersburg breaks daily temperature record set in 1893, Russia -- With the temperature dropping to -20.9 C (-5.8 F) on Sunday, December 5, 2021, the Russian city of St. Petersburg has broken its daily record set 128 years ago - in 1893."Today, St. Petersburg set a new daily cold weather record. Temperatures in the Northern Capital fell to -20.9 °C, which is 0.4 °C lower than on the same day back in 1893," Leading Expert at the Fobos weather center Mikhail Leus said.¹Leus added that St. Petersburg had broken cold weather records twice in the 21^st century - on July 14, 2015, and January 3, 2002. Temperatures in the city on December 6 are expected to range from -16 to - 18 °C (3.2 to -0.4 °F) and from -15 to -20 °C (-5 to -4 °F) in the Leningrad region. This is 16 to 17 °C (28 - 30.6 °F) below normal.

Historic cold spell hits Scandinavia, Sweden records its coldest December day in 35 years A historic cold spell is affecting Scandinavia, bringing unusually cold temperatures for the time of year. With a temperature of -43.8 °C (-46.8 °F) registered in Naimakka in northern Lapland on Monday, December 6, 2021, Sweden recorded its coldest December day since December 1, 1986.1 For Naimakka, this is the coldest December temperature since 1944 when their records keeping began. The settlement's all-time cold temperature record is -48.9 °C (-56 °F) registered in 1999. -43.8 °C is also the lowest temperature ever recorded in Sweden so early in the season since 1945. The neighboring station Karesuando recorded -41.9 °C (-43.4 °F) on December 6 before the temperature values ​​stopped coming in, according to Sweden’s national weather agency SMHI. For this station, it was the coldest December temperature since 1915 when the temperatures dropped to -42 °C (-43.6 °F). The only times when a temperature of at least -40 °C (-40 °F) was measured in Karesuando in December are 1885, 1898, 1915, 1919, 1969, and 1986. In Nikkaluokta, the temperature dropped below -40 °C, with -40.5 °C (-40.9 °F) as the lowest on Monday morning. Sweden's all-time cold temperature record is -52.6 °C (-62.7 °F) registered on February 2, 1966, in Vuoggatjålme, Lapland. However, it is debated whether it was correctly recorded, so Sweden usually uses the runner-up, -48.9 °C (-56 °F) at Hemavaan on December 30, 1978.

Series of strong earthquakes hit off the coast of Oregon, U.S. - A series of earthquakes hit off the coast of Oregon, U.S. on December 7 and 8, 2021. The quakes are taking place at a shallow depth of about 10 km (6.2 miles), some 500 km (320 miles) E of Salem, Oregon. The series started with M4.2 at 13:21 UTC and continued through the morning.By 07:36 UTC on December 8, the USGS registered 41 earthquakes (M3.4 - M5.8).There are no people living within 100 km (62 miles). The USGS issued a Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.According to the forecast made by the USGS, there is a 1% chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 5.8 over the next 7 days.¹ The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 3 or higher is 97%, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 29 such earthquakes may occur in the case that the sequence is re-invigorated by a larger aftershock. Currently, scientists are predicting that there is about a 37% chance that a megathrust earthquake of 7.1+ magnitude will happen at the boundary between the Juan de Fuca and North American plates, called the Cascadia Subduction Zone, in the next 50 years. This event will be felt throughout the Pacific Northwest.²The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a ~1 000 km (600 miles) long fault that runs from northern California up to British Columbia and is about 100 - 160 km (70 - 100 miles) off the Pacific coast shoreline.There have been 41 earthquakes in the last 10 000 years within this fault that have occurred as few as 190 years or as much as 1 200 years apart.The last earthquake that occurred in this fault was on January 26, 1700, with an estimated magnitude of 9.0. This earthquake caused the coastline to drop several feet and a tsunami to form and crash into the land. What is most surprising is that evidence for this great earthquake also came from Japan. Japanese historic records indicate that a destructive distantly-produced tsunami struck their coast on January 26, 1700. By studying the geological records and the flow of the Pacific Ocean, scientists have been able to link the tsunami in Japan with the great earthquake from the Pacific Northwest. Native American legends also support the timing of this last event.

New type of earthquake discovered - Hybrid-frequency waveform earthquake (EHW) - A team of researchers from Canada and Germany discovered and documented a new type of earthquake in an injection environment in British Columbia, Canada. The recently discovered seismic events are slower than conventional earthquakes. Their existence supports a scientific theory that until now had not been sufficiently substantiated by measurements. The researchers named the new type of earthquake as hybrid-frequency waveform earthquake (EHW).Unlike conventional earthquakes of the same magnitude, these newly-discovered earthquakes are slower and last longer.They are a new type of induced earthquake triggered by hydraulic fracturing, a method used in western Canada for oil and gas extraction.With a network of eight seismic stations surrounding an injection well at distances of a few kilometers, researchers recorded seismic data of approximately 350 earthquakes.Around 10% of the located earthquakes turned out to exhibit unique features suggesting that they rupture more slowly, similar to what has previously been observed mainly in volcanic areas. Recently, numerical models and lab analyses have predicted a process on faults near injection wells that have been observed elsewhere on tectonic faults.The process, termed aseismic slip, starts out as a slow slip event that does not release any seismic energy. The slow slip can also cause a stress change on nearby faults that causes them slip rapidly and lead to an earthquake.The lack of seismic energy from aseismic slip and the size of the faults involved make it difficult to observe in nature.Researchers have therefore not yet been able to document aseismic slip broadly with any association to induced earthquakes.The work of the current study provides indirect evidence of aseismic loading and a transition from aseismic to seismic slip.The team interprets the recently discovered slow earthquakes as an intermediate form of a conventional earthquake and aseismic slip – and thus as indirect evidence that aseismic slip can also occur in the vicinity of wells. They dubbed the events as hybrid-frequency waveform earthquakes (EHW).While the shaking from a conventional earthquake of magnitude 1.5 in the researchers’ data set had died down after about seven seconds, an EHW earthquake of the same magnitude continued to shake for more than ten seconds.

Indonesia volcano eruption death toll rises to 14 - Rescuers in Indonesia raced to find survivors in villages blanketed by molten ash Sunday after the eruption of Mount Semeru killed at least 14 people and left dozens injured. The eruption of the biggest mountain on the island of Java caught locals by surprise on Saturday, sending thousands fleeing and forcing hundreds of families into makeshift shelters. At least 11 villages of Lumajang district in East Java were coated in volcanic ash, submerging houses and vehicles, smothering livestock and leaving at least 1,300 evacuees seeking shelter in mosques, schools and village halls. "We did not know it was hot mud," said Bunadi, a resident of Kampung Renteng, a village of about 3,000 people. "All of a sudden, the sky turned dark as rains and hot smoke came." Dramatic footage showed Semeru pumping a mushroom of ash into the sky that loomed over screaming residents of a nearby village as they fled. "The number of victims who died until now is 14 people," national disaster mitigation agency spokesman Abdul Muhari told a press conference Sunday. Two of the victims have been identified, he said in an earlier statement. At least 56 people including two pregnant women were injured in the eruption, health officials said, and most suffered serious burns. President Joko Widodo on Sunday ordered a rapid emergency response to find victims after the scale of the disaster became clear, said state secretary Pratikno, who like many Indonesians goes by only one name. As many as 10 trapped people were rescued from areas surrounding Lumajang, Muhari said, as villagers and rescuers worked through the night to find anyone alive or retrieve bodies. But the rescue efforts were hindered by hot ash and debris, with evacuations temporarily suspended on Sunday due to ash clouds, Indonesia's Metro TV reported, highlighting the difficulty of the operation. The country's geological agency said rain is expected in the next three days that could further hinder rescue work. There is also a risk of the rain causing ash sediment to form a new river of hot lava, the country's top volcanologist Surono told the TV station. Many people who sustained burns had mistaken the hot mud flow for floods so stayed in their villages, said Lumajang Public Order Agency spokesman Adi Hendro. "They did not have time to run away," he told AFP. Authorities said they are still trying to confirm the whereabouts of at least nine people. Lava mixed with debris and heavy rain destroyed at least one bridge in Lumajang, preventing rescuers from accessing the area. Emergency services footage showed a desolate scene in the village of Kampung Renteng, with rescue workers toiling surrounded by buckled buildings and fallen trees. "There were 10 people carried away by the mud flow," said Salim, another resident of the village. "One of them was almost saved. He was told to run away but said, 'I can't, who will feed my cows?'"

At least 15 killed, 27 missing and 57 injured after massive eruption at Semeru volcano, Indonesia (videos) - At least 15 people have been killed, 27 are missing and 57 others have been injured after powerful eruption of Semeru volcano in the Indonesian province of East Java on Saturday, December 4, 2021. Nearly 3 000 houses and 38 schools were damaged. Saturday's eruption produced deadly pyroclastic flows and lahars, ejected volcanic ash up to 15.2 km (50 000 feet) above sea level, and completely blocked out the Sun over the affected region. The eruption caught locals by surprise and send thousands of them fleeing its path of destruction and forcing hundreds of families into makeshift shelters.1 Homes and livestock in at least 11 villages of Lumajang district were coated in volcanic ash. The eruption claimed the lives of at least 13 people and left 57 others injured, mostly with burns. At least seven people remain missing, including two who authorities believe are still alive, Lumajang Public Order Agency spokesman Adi Hendro told AFP.2 "There were signs they are still alive as there were lights maybe from their cellphones," he said. "But we cannot go there as the ground is still very hot." Lava mixed with debris and heavy rain had already destroyed at least one bridge in Lumajang, preventing rescuers from immediately accessing the area. But emergency services footage on Sunday showed a desolate scene in the village of Kampung Renteng with rescue workers toiling surrounded by buckled buildings and fallen trees. "There were 10 people carried away by the mudflow," said a resident of Kampung Renteng. "One of them was almost saved. He was told to run away but said 'I can't, who will feed my cows?'" Lahars reached and destroyed the village of Lumajhang, located almost 30 km (18 miles) from the volcano.

Indonesia volcano erupts again, hampering rescue operations - Indonesia's Mount Semeru spewed more ash on Monday, hampering the search for survivors as the death toll rose to 22 following the volcano's deadly weekend eruption. The biggest mountain on the island of Java thundered to life Saturday, ejecting a mushroom of volcanic ash high into the sky and raining hot mud as thousands of panicked people fled their homes. Aerial photos showed entire streets filled with grey volcanic ash and mud, which had swallowed many homes and vehicles, including whole trucks. Indonesia's national disaster agency said the number killed rose to 22 on Monday night and 27 people were still missing. "I'm still hoping my son will be found... Every time I hear victims have been found, I hope it is my son," said Maskur Suhri of Sumberwuluh village, who was collecting palm tree sap when Semeru erupted. "There's a very small chance he survived... Maybe it's my son's fate, but I still hope he will be found, even just his body." Fresh volcanic activity on Monday hampered search efforts, forcing rescue teams to pull out from some areas. "There was a small fresh eruption and it could endanger the evacuation teams," said rescue worker Rizal Purnama. Dangerous thick plumes of smoke continued to emerge from areas blanketed by the volcanic ash, while rescuers in hardhats tried to dig through the mud to try and find survivors—and recover bodies.Their task was made more difficult as the volcanic debris had started to harden. "It's very difficult... with simple tools," Rizal Purnama said. "It is very likely bodies that have not been found are buried under the hot mudflow." Other rescuers helped desperate villagers salvage their belongings from wrecked homes. Some locals lifted mattresses and furniture on their shoulders while others carried goats in their arms. 'I could only pray' Officials have advised locals not to travel within five kilometres (3.1 miles) of Semeru's crater, as the nearby air is highly polluted and could affect vulnerable groups. Ash from Semeru travelled up to four kilometres away after the Saturday eruption, Indonesia's geological agency reported. A sand mine company's office in Kampung Renteng village was buried after the eruption, trapping 15 people, according to foreman Hasim, 65, who like many Indonesians goes by one name."There's no news from them. Only one operator was rescued, he's now at the hospital with burns," he told AFP.

Grímsvötn volcano Aviation Color Code raised to Orange, Iceland - The Icelandic Met Office (IMO) has raised to Aviation Color Code for Grímsvötn volcano from Yellow to Orange on December 6, one day after the glacial flood from Grímsvötn reached its peak discharge. By definition, the Aviation Color Code is updated to Orange when a volcano shows increased activity and there is an increasing probability of an eruption. The seismic activity at Grímsvötn has been increasing above the normal level over the last couple of days. A magnitude 2.3 earthquake was recorded near the volcano on December 6 followed at 06:10 UTC by a shallow M3.6 at the eastern summit caldera rim and several aftershocks of magnitude 1.1 This seismic activity is possibly occurring due to the decreased pressure above the volcano since the floodwater left Grímsvötn sub-glacial lake. According to a GPS meter from the Meteorological Office in Grímsvötn, the ice cap has sunk about 77 m (252 feet) since subsidence started on November 24. The subsidence has slowed down a lot and the glacial flood has decreased, so it can be concluded that the lakes have mostly emptied. According to flow measurements made between 16:00 and 18:00 UTC on December 5, the flow in Gígjukvísl was 2 310 m3/s (81 000 ft3/s). Between 09:30 and 12:30 on December 6, the flow was was 1 100 m3/s (39 200 ft3/s) and has therefore decreased significantly. No volcanic tremor has been detected and no increase/changes in geochemical emissions at the volcano are measured, IMO said. According to calculations from the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Iceland, at least 0.8 km3 (0.2 mi3) of water has drained from the sub-glacial lake. Due to this elevated seismic activity, the IMO has decided to raise the Aviation Color Code from Grímsvötn volcano from Yellow to Orange. There are examples of eruptions in Grímsvötn after water flows from there. "The last time this happened was in 2004 and before that in 1934 and 1922. In 2004, traces of the start of the eruption were seen on October 28 and the eruption began about three days later, or at the end of the day on November 1," IMO said. In the days before, the earthquake in Grímsvötn was a sign that an eruption was imminent. The last eruption in Grímsvötn took place in 2011, but this time it had run out of Grímsvötn just over six months before. Since 2011 it has run a total of 6 times from Grímsvötn without an eruption. The eruption has taken place every five to ten years from Grímsvötn, and scientists agree that measurements show that conditions are such that Grímsvötn is ready to erupt.

Fire hastens permafrost collapse in Arctic Alaska, study finds - While climate change is the primary driver of permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska, a new analysis of 70 years of data reveals that tundra fires are accelerating that decline, contributing disproportionately to a phenomenon known as "thermokarst," the abrupt collapse of ice-rich permafrost as a result of thawing. Reported in the journal One Earth, the study is the first to calculate the role of fire on permafrost integrity over so many decades, the researchers say. The Arctic permafrost is a vast storehouse of frozen plant and animal matter, a carbon stockpile that, if thawed and degraded, could more than double the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, researchers say. "This process, because it's very unpredictable, is poorly understood," said Yaping Chen, a former graduate student at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, who led the research with Mark Lara, a U. of I. professor of plant biology and of geography and geographic information science, and Feng Sheng Hu, a U. of I. professor emeritus of plant biology and current dean of arts and sciences at Washington University in St. Louis. "With this study, we're advancing our understanding of the permafrost ecosystem," said Chen, now a postdoctoral researcher at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science in the College of William and Mary. The team analyzed seven decades of air and satellite imagery to calculate the rate of thermokarst formation in different regions of Arctic Alaska. Researchers also used machine-learning-based modeling to determine the relative contributions of climate change, fire disturbance and landscape features to observed permafrost declines. "We found that thermokarst formation has accelerated by 60% since the 1950s," Chen said. "Although climate change is the main driver of thermokarst acceleration, fire played a disproportionately large role in that process. Fire burned only 3% of the Arctic landscape in that time period but was responsible for more than 10% of thermokarst formation." Repeated fires in the same areas continued to damage the tundra but did not further accelerate thermokarst formation, the researchers found. The study revealed that a single fire could accelerate thermokarst formation for several decades.

New source of the strong greenhouse gas nitrous oxide found in Siberian permafrost - A previously unknown source of the strong greenhouse gas nitrous oxide has been found in East Siberian Yedoma permafrost. Published in Nature Communicationstoday, the observation was made by an international group of researchers, with the lead of researchers from the University of Eastern Finland.Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is the third-most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxideand methane, and per unit mass an almost 300 times stronger warming agent than carbon dioxide. It is produced in soils as a result of microbial activity. The discovery of nitrous oxide release from the late-Pleistocene-aged Yedoma permafrost is important due to the large area of the Yedoma region, and its large carbon and nitrogen stocks and high ice content, which makes it vulnerable for abrupt thaw. The nitrous oxide emissions from thawing permafrost represent a poorly known, but potentially globally significant positive feedback to climate change. Overall, the consequences of nitrogen release from permafrost for Arctic ecosystems have been insufficiently studied and remain poorly understood. In the study published today, the researchers measured nitrous oxide emissions from the riverbanks of the East Siberian rivers Lena and Kolyma, where rapid permafrost thaw exposes Yedoma permafrost to the surface, releasing large amounts of carbon and nitrogen for microbial activity. The researchers found that nitrous oxide emissions from recently thawed Yedoma were initially very low but increased within less than a decade to high rates, exceeding typical emissions from permafrost-affected soils by one to two orders of magnitude (10–100 times). The increase in nitrous oxide emissions was related to drying and stabilization of the Yedoma sediments after thaw, and to associated changes in the microbial community participating in soil nitrogen cycle: the relative proportion of microbes producing nitrous oxide precursors (nitrate, nitric oxide) increased and the relative proportion of microbes consuming nitrous oxide decreased.Usually, high nitrous oxide emissions occur from agricultural soils, where the availability of mineral nitrogen is high because of nitrogen fertilization and other management practices. Since the nitrogen cycling in cold Arctic soils is slow, they have previously been regarded as unimportant nitrous oxide sources. Based on accumulating evidence during the past years, however, this is not always true: nitrous oxide release has been found to be a common phenomenon in permafrost-affected soils, and the emissions increase with warming, disturbed vegetation cover and permafrost thaw."The nitrogen release from thawing permafrost can substantially improve the availability of nitrogen in Arctic ecosystems, which, in addition to the direct climatic feedback in the form of nitrous oxide, may have important consequences on carbon fixation by plants and eutrophication of water systems,"

 Weaker ocean cir­cu­la­tion led to more car­bon stor­age in the deep sea The movement of water masses in the ocean, its circulation, is an essential component of the global climate system. In a study recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS), researchers were able to show that circulation in the deep ocean was significantly slowed down during the last glacial period. Analyses of sediment samples show that the decomposition of organic carbon in the water masses of the deep sea consumed the oxygen available there. Scientists from Oklahoma State University (U.S.), GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and MARUM—Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen are involved in the publication. As a natural sink for carbon, the ocean is a central element of the Earth's climate system. The amount of carbon removed from the system in the long run depends on how much particles containing carbon are stored in the seabed. Here, the availability of dissolved oxygen is of central importance, as it is consumed during the microbial decomposition of previously formed biomass. The distribution of oxygen in the water column is primarily determined by the vertical circulation. To answer the question of whether the corresponding conditions in the deep ocean were subject to changes in the recent history of the Earth, the authors of the new study examined sediment samples. Chemical elements that can be used as indicators for oxygen-free conditions and are preserved in the sediment over thousands to millions of years were analyzed. The sediment cores available to the team came from the Cape Basin off the west coast of southern Africa, from water depths between 1,000 and 2,500 meters. Due to the ocean currents, the area is one of the most biologically productive ones: Cold, nutrient-rich water from the depth increases the productivity of phytoplankton. Sinking particles of dead organic material is processed by microorganisms in the water column, as well as on the seabed. This process mostly consumes oxygen. If large amounts of organic material sink, this can require more oxygen than is supplied by the ocean currents. The water column becomes "anoxic," which means oxygen-free. Using geochemical signatures in the sediments, the researchers were able to prove that much less oxygen must have been available in the deep ocean during the last glacial period compared to warmer phases. Until now, glacial periods were known to have a stronger temperature gradient between the poles and the equator that was directly related to an increase in wind circulation, thus a stronger upwelling of nutrient-rich water and, in turn, more intensive biological production. This can essentially be attributed to two causes: Intensive decomposition processes of the biomass that was increasingly produced during glacial periods consumed a lot of oxygen. The increased content of organic carbon in the sediments studied can be seen as a clear indication that the availability of oxygen must have been severely restricted at the same time.

Panel suggests US tinker with oceans to fight climate change --The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine said that the U.S. should consider measures that could get oceans to remove more carbon dioxide from the air as a means of combatting climate change. A panel of scientific advisers recommended that the federal government allocate over $1 billion in the next 10 years to looking into the most effective ways to use the ocean to remove more carbon from the atmosphere and learning about possible drawbacks of such measures, according to The Associated Press.The group listed six strategies that could potentially help oceans absorb more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, the costs, efficacy and potential negative impacts of the suggestions remain unknown, per the AP.The strategies noted by the panel included decreasing oceanic acidity through the use of minerals or electric jolts, adding phosphorus or nitrogen to the oceans, encouraging plankton growth and creating large-scale seaweed farms that would suck up carbon before sinking into the deep ocean, according to the wire service. The academy noted that the issue was of particular importance given the need to eliminate more harmful gasses from the atmosphere in order to achieve the goals set out in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the AP added.

Trees are biggest methane 'vents' in wetland areas – even when they're dry - Most of the methane gas emitted from Amazon wetlands regions is vented into the atmosphere via tree root systems—with significant emissions occurring even when the ground is not flooded, say researchers at the University of Birmingham. In a study published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, the researchers have found evidence that far more methane is emitted by trees growing on floodplains in the Amazon basin than by soil or surface water and this occurs in both wet and dry conditions. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas and much of our atmospheric methane comes from wetlands. A great deal of research is being carried on into exactly how much methane is emitted via this route, but models typically assume that the gas is only produced when the ground is completely flooded and underwater. In wetland areas where there are no trees, methane would typically be consumed by the soil on its way to the surface, but in forested wetland areas, the researchers say the tree roots could be acting as a transport system for the gas, up to the surface where it vents into the atmosphere from the tree trunks. Methane is able to escape via this route even when it is produced in soil and water that is several meters below ground level. This would mean that existing models could be significantly underestimating the likely extent of methane emissions in wetland areas such as the Amazon basin. Overall, the team estimate that nearly half of global tropical wetland methane emissions are funneled out by trees, with the unexpected result that trees are also important for emissions at times when the floodplain water table sits below the surface of the soil.

Trees in Amazon Wetlands Contribute to Methane Emissions, Study Says - The primary source of methane gas released into the atmosphere from floodplains in the Amazon basin is vented through tree root systems, say researchers led by the University of Birmingham, with considerable emissions occurring when no flooding is present.The researchers discovered evidence that these trees emit a much higher amount of methane than soil or surface water, and that this is the case in both wet and dry conditions, a study published in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A showed.“While in wetland areas without trees, methane would usually be consumed by the soil on its way towards the surface, in forested wetland areas, tree roots could be acting as a methane transport system, venting it into the atmosphere via the tree trunks,” reported Andrei Ionescu of Earth.com.“In such conditions, methane appears to be able to escape into the air even when it is produced in soil and water that is several meters below ground level. Thus, existing models could massively underestimate the extent of methane emissions in wetland areas such as the Amazon basin,” Ionescu reported.“After reaching the atmosphere, methane causes more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years. While CO2 has a longer-lasting effect, methane sets the pace in the near term. At least 25% of today’s warming is thought to be led by anthropogenic methane production,” reported David J. Crossof AzoCleantech. “Since pre-industrial times, methane release has accounted for around 30 percent of global warming and is growing at a fast rate,” he added.

Greenhouse gas emissions closely correlated with income: study - Richer countries and people are contributing a disproportionate amount to greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new report released by the World Inequality Lab (WIL) research organization on Tuesday. According to the WIL's report, the top 1 percent of carbon emitting countries account for 17 percent of emissions, while the bottom 50 percent of countries account for only about 12 percent. Lucas Chancel, the WIL's co-director, told Yahoo News, "Wealthy individuals pollute much more than low-income groups.""An extreme illustration of this is when billionaires decide to do a nine-minute trip to space. Estimates suggest this adds 75 tonnes of carbon per passenger," said Chancel. "It takes a lifetime for about a billion people on earth to reach this level of per capita emissions." Disparities in emissions varied from region to region. In Europe, the WIL found that the bottom 50 percent of the population's earners emitted 5 tons of carbon every year per person, while in East Asia, the bottom 50 percent emitted 3 tons per person per year. In North America, the bottom 50 percent of the population emitted nearly 10 tons of carbon per person annually. Apart from this measure of worldwide inequality, scientists and world leaders have repeatedly warned that poorer countries will ultimately bear the brunt of the negative effects of global climate change.

Youngkin says he will remove Virginia from Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative - Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin said Wednesday that he will use executive power to withdraw Virginia from a program called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which he said is essentially a tax on electricity ratepayers and a bad deal for them and for business.Youngkin’s comments came during a speech in Virginia Beach at the annual meeting of the Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce.The program, designed to reduce emissions from power plants, was approved by the Democratic-controlled General Assembly in 2020 and signed by Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam. In August, the Virginia State Corporation Commission first approved a request by Dominion Energy, the state’s largest electric utility, to recover costs from customers for RGGI, as it’s called.“Just this week Dominion Energy announced that they will seek to double the carbon surcharge that is being applied to ratepayers under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative,” said Youngkin, the Republican who won the governor’s office last month and takes office Jan. 15.“RGGI will cost ratepayers over the next four years an estimated $1 billion to $1.2 billion dollars. RGGI describes itself as a regional market for carbon, but it is really a carbon tax that is fully passed on to ratepayers. It’s a bad deal for Virginians. It’s a bad deal for Virginia businesses. And as governor I will withdraw us from RGGI by executive action.”

Climate Change: Adapt for the Future, Not the Past - Funding for developing countries to address global warming is grossly inadequate. Very little finance is for adaptation to climate change, the urgent need of countries most adversely affected. Also, adaptation needs to be forward-looking rather than only addressing accumulated problems.Climate change poses an existential threat, especially to poor countries with little means to adapt. Rich countries’ failure to deliver promised financial support has only made things worse. COVID-19 has dealt another knock-out blow, worsened by rich countries’ “health apartheid”.The COP26 deal was undoubtedly a “historically shameful dereliction of duty” and “nowhere near enough to avoid climate disaster”. Glasgow’s failure shows up lack of real progress and inadequate policy responses. Worse, no significant new resources came with the “Glasgow Suicide Pact”.The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)’s Trade and Development Report 2021 laments rich countries’ unwillingness to address grave challenges facing developing countries. After all, Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development was in trouble even before COVID-19.Climate policy responses involve both mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation seeks to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through more efficient energy use, and by using renewable energy instead of fossil fuels. Adaptation involves strengthening resilience and protection to minimize adverse effects on human lives. National adaptation needs get far less international funding than mitigation for the world. Thus, poor countries struggle alone addressing global warming mainly caused by others. Adaptation challenges are also wide-ranging, due to varying country vulnerabilities.

World's largest carbon capture pipeline aims to connect 31 ethanol plants, cut across Upper Midwest Iowa-based Summit Carbon Solutions, an offshoot of Summit Agriculture Group, is behind the $4.5 billion Midwest Carbon Express project, with the goal of sending 12 millions tons of CO2 annually to western North Dakota, where it can be stored underground. It would be the largest carbon capture project in the world. Spanning five states and involving at least 31 ethanol plants connected by 2,000 miles of pipeline, an Iowa company is poised to make a major investment in low-carbon fuel.Summit Carbon Solutions, an offshoot of Summit Agriculture Group, is behind the $4.5 billion Midwest Carbon Express project, with the goal of sending 12 millions tons of CO2 annually to western North Dakota, where it can be stored underground. It would be the largest carbon capture project in the world.The company already has held a series of public meetings in Iowa and is reaching out to landowners along its proposed route. But it has yet to apply for a permit in any of the five states: Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota. That will likely happen sometime in the first quarter of 2022, says Jake Ketzner, vice president of governmental affairs with Summit Carbon.Ketzner calls the project a “transformational project for the future of agriculture.”The ethanol plants along the route stand to benefit from access to selling fuel for a premium on the low-carbon market without investing their own money.Ketzner said he expects the low-carbon fuel market, which already exists in places such as California, to greatly expand in the coming years.The fact that Summit is willing to take on all the upfront costs of the pipeline project’s construction made it especially enticing for ethanol companies, said Ryan Thorpe, of Tharaldson Ethanol of Casselton, North Dakota. “We don’t have to put a penny in a $4.5 billion project,” Thorpe said.Secondly, with there being rapid movement to a lower carbon footprint, the ethanol industry can’t drag its feet, he said. “It really helps us long-term in sustaining our business,” Thorpe said. But not all are excited about the project. Groups seeking to protect the environment and protect the rights of landowners are mobilizing to keep Summit from steamrolling the project through.Peg Furshong is the director of CURE, which stands for Clean Up the River Environment, an organization that calls itself a rural social justice group in Minnesota. She said her group, along with other groups concerned about the environment in other states along the route, have been trying to learn as much as they can about carbon pipelines in a short amount of time.“There’s a whole lot of stuff we still need to know,” she said. Iowa is farther along in the process of public meetings, and landowners there also have the recent history of the Dakota Access Pipeline project to draw from. Landowners were compensated for three years of crop loss and were told that their land would be restored to its previous condition, but some landowners have gone to court over damaged land. “There are outstanding damages to this day that have never been fixed,” Iowa Sierra Club conservation program coordinator Jess Mazour said, referring to Dakota Access. Mazour said the project is bringing together an unlikely alliance of farmers, environmental groups and Native American tribes.

Major U.S. utilities plan coast-to-coast, EV-charging network -More than 50 U.S. power companies have joined forces to build a coast-to-coast fast charging network for electric vehicles along major U.S. travel corridors by the end of 2023. The National Electric Highway Coalition was announced today by the Edison Electric Institute. Fifty EEI members; the Tennessee Valley Authority; and Midwest Energy Inc., a Kansas-based electric cooperative, make up the coalition. It also combines two existing EV charging groups formed in the Midwest and in Southern and Eastern coastal states, the Electric Highway Coalition and the Midwest Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Collaboration. Although the coalition did not set a numerical goal for charging station installations in this decade, it said its first actions would be to fill in gaps in the steadily growing EV charging infrastructure along the Interstate Highway System. “[W]e are committed to investing in and providing the charging infrastructure necessary to facilitate electric vehicle growth and to helping alleviate any remaining customer range anxiety,” EEI President Tom Kuhn said in a statement. “With scores of new battery-electric vehicles coming to market over the next couple of years, we need to get the charging infrastructure sited, built and funded,” said Philip Jones, executive director of the Alliance for Transportation Electrification. EEI said it expects the number of battery-powered EVs to grow from roughly 2 million last year to at least 20 million by the end of this decade. The number of public fast-charging stations, around 10,000 in the U.S. currently, will also have to expand tenfold, said Kellen Schefter, EEI’s director of electric transportation. This summer, the EV share of light-duty vehicles climbed to over 20 percent of passenger vehicle sales, according to reports (Climatewire, Sept. 24). “Charging infrastructure needs to lead electric vehicle adoption,” Schefter said, at least in the immediate future. “We want to see that charging infrastructure is not a barrier,” even if longer trips are not the daily drive for most EV owners.

Biden to expand federal fleet of EVs in bid to make government carbon-neutral by 2050 - President Joe Biden signed an executive order on Wednesday leveraging the federal government's buying power to slash its carbon emissions by 65% by 2030 and become carbon neutral by mid-century, in the latest push by the administration to address human-caused climate change. Under the order, the White House is set to spend billions of dollars to expand its federal fleet of electric vehicles, upgrade buildings owned or leased by the government and add more clean electricity to the country's grid. The new plan, which will likely face pushback by some Republicans and businesses, puts the government on track to run on carbon-zero electricity by 2030 and achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The government will spend its annual buying power of $650 billion to upgrade efficiency at its 300,000 buildings and replace its fleet of 600,000 cars and trucks with electric vehicles, according to a White House fact sheet. Biden's directive pledges the government will transition to purchasing 100% zero-emission vehicles by 2035 for its fleet, including all light duty vehicle purchasing by 2027. The White House said it will coordinate with American vehicle, battery and charging equipment manufacturers and installers to meet these goals. The president in November signed into law a bipartisan infrastructure plan that includes $7.5 billion to build a national network of charging stations for electric vehicles. The order directs the government to reduce the emissions of federal buildings by 50% by 2032 and have buildings reach net-zero emissions by 2045, as well as develop of at least 10 gigawatts of new U.S. clean electricity production by 2030. The order also includes a "buy clean" initiative that directs the government to promote the use of products with lower emissions, in an effort to expand the market for sustainable and low-carbon goods made in the U.S. "By transforming how the federal government builds, buys, and manages its assets and operations, the federal government will support the growth of America's clean energy and clean technology industries," the White House said.

Toyota plans multi-billion dollar facility in North Carolina --Toyota will open a multi-billion dollar battery plant with at least 1,750 employees about an hour’s drive outside the Triangle, after North Carolina approved an incentive package Monday worth $438.7 million for the company — one of the largest manufacturing investments in the state’s history.The Japanese auto maker announced in October it would build a $1.29 billion facility in the United States to manufacture hybrid and electric vehicle batteries — a key component of the company’s plans to make 70% of its cars electric by the end of the decade.The plant known as Toyota Battery Manufacturing, North Carolina will be built in Liberty, a small town in Randolph County that is home to the Greensboro-Randolph Megasite, one of the designated areas in North Carolina the state markets to potential large manufacturers.Toyota will launch production in 2025 and expand operations by 2031. The site will produce 1.2 million battery packs per year, said Chris Reynolds, chief administrative officer of corporate resources for Toyota North America.The state’s Economic Investment Committee approved the state’s incentive for Toyota — referred to internally as Project Darwin — at a special m eeting in Raleigh on Monday. The state’s contribution is just one part of an incentive package from numerous entities that could reach $271.4 million.

EV charging deserts leave Black communities unconnected - The Washington Post - Standing on the rear third-floor deck of the Blacks in Green building on South Cottage Grove Avenue, Naomi Davis and Stacey McIlvaine looked out over the desert that is West Woodlawn. Davis, an environmental activist, and McIlvaine, an electrician, had come together on a gray fall day to discuss how they could correct a complete absence of electric vehicle chargers in one of Chicago’s preeminent Black neighborhoods.Naomi Davis doesn’t want Chicago’s Black residents to be left behind in the era of electric cars. “We’re used to elbowing our way to the table,” said the founder of Blacks in Green.

Move over, electric cars: E-boats are coming — — and investors are on board - Andy Rebele has spent much of his life on boats, fishing in lakes near his childhood home in San Diego and, now, cruising the waterways near his house in Seattle. He knows well that, along with serenity and outdoor beauty, boating can mean deafeningly loud growling engines, smelly exhaust and sheens of leaking fuel.A decade ago, after seeing Tesla launch its first all-electric cars, Rebele decided to bring to the water what was just then appearing on the road: battery power. He formed the companyPure Watercraft to design boating systems that can ply rivers and lakes without leaving trails of pollution in their wake. Last month, the electric boat startup took a significant step toward scaling that vision when General Motors acquired a 25 percent stake, an investment worth $150 million. Pure Watercraft is among a growing number of startups working to electrify fishing boats, day cruisers and other types of gas-guzzling watercraft.

Biden slashes biofuel blending targets for U.S. motor fuels - The Biden administration plans to slash the amount of biofuel that must be mixed into gasoline and diesel, according to people familiar with the matter, dealing a blow to ethanol producers and the agriculture industry. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday will propose cutting biofuel-blending quotas retroactively for 2020, the people said, while outlining lower-than-expected targets for this year and a modest increase in 2022. The EPA also is rejecting bids by dozens of small refineries seeking waivers from 2019-2021 RFS quotas, according to the people, who asked not to be named because the information isn’t public. The plan is being delivered as President Joe Biden battles gasoline prices now hovering around a seven-year high and inflationary pressures that threaten to undercut the U.S. economic recovery. It follows months of deliberations over how to set the targets amid a pandemic-spurred drop in fuel demand and a surge in costs, while still encouraging greater use of biofuels made from corn and soy. The measure responds to concerns raised by oil refiners and their allies on Capitol Hill, who had argued reductions were critical to address a decline in fuel sales and compensate for 2020 targets they said exceeded blending capacity. For 2020, the EPA is taking the unusual step of retroactively revising down the total renewable fuel quota to 17.13 billion gallons, from a 20.09 billion-gallon target established in December 2019.

Mixed reaction in biofuels industry to EPA ethanol blending announcement - The Biden Administration has rejected dozens of oil refinery requests to be exempt from ethanol blending requirements, while proposing to dial back ethanol production targets. The moves are getting mixed reaction from the biofuels industry. Ron Lamberty of the American Coalition for Ethanol says it appears oil refiners won’t have to make good on ethanol blending goals. “The numbers for 2021 seem to be lower than what we’re actually selling now, so we could take a hit there,” he says, “and the 2022 numbers look to be what they are supposed to be by law, so you know kind of hard to give anybody a pat on the back for that.” “Obviously we have some significant concerns with some of it,” he says, “but on balance we think this is probably overall a modest step in the right direction toward getting the RFS back on track.” The Renewable Fuels Standard calls on the EPA to set yearly ethanol blending requirements for the oil industry, but the Trump Administration did not meet last December’s deadline to set a target for this year. The Biden Administration has now set the ethanol production goal for 2022. Republican elected officials from Iowa are blasting the decisions to retroactively reduce ethanol rules for 2020 and 2021. Governor Kim Reynolds calls the package a “slap in the face to Iowa farmers and renewable fuels producers.” Congresswoman Cindy Axne of West Des Moines, the only Democrat in Iowa’s congressional delegation, says denying oil industry waivers for ethanol blending obligations is the “right path” for the future, but dialing back previous ethanol requirements rewards oil companies that have “failed to follow” the Renewable Fuels Standard. National Corn Growers Association president Chris Edgington — a farmer from St. Ansgar, Iowa — says denying oil refinery exemptions for 2022 is an important step forward, but the move to change previous ethanol blending requirements should be reversed.

Biden order requires net-zero federal government emissions by 2050 - President Joe Biden signed an executive order Wednesday requiring the federal government to neutralize it own greenhouse gas emissions stemming from its electricity usage, vehicle fleets, buildings, operations and procurement activities by 2050.Biden previously pledged to slash overall U.S. emissions at least 50 percent compared with 2005 levels this decade and to hit net-zero emissions economywide by 2050. The new executive order aims to move closer to achieving these goals by directing the federal government to use its scale and procurement power to achieve emissions reductions."As the single largest land owner, energy consumer, and employer in the Nation, the Federal Government can catalyze private sector investment and expand the economy and American industry by transforming how we build, buy, and manage electricity, vehicles, buildings, and other operations to be clean and sustainable," the executive order stated.: A White House fact sheet said the order will direct federal agencies to derive electricity from carbon-free sources by 2030, which it said will spur an additional 10 gigawatts of clean energy capacity. Biden has pledged the whole U.S. power grid will reach carbon neutrality by 2035.The order also instructs agencies to acquire only zero-emissions vehicles by 2035 — with a nearer 2027 deadline for light-duty vehicles.The federal government will also pursue a "Buy Clean" policy to encourage using construction materials made with fewer carbon emissions and avoid products with added perfluoroalkyl or polyfluoroalkyl substances, so-called forever chemicals linked to cancer and found in U.S. drinking water supplies. It calls for ensuring all procurement meets net-zero marks by 2050.

Offshore wind grid woes may be worse than previously thought - Experts are warning that the challenge of connecting large amounts of offshore wind to an aging onshore grid may be much larger than initially realized. That’s because offshore wind will need to grow very big, very fast to decarbonize the grid, they say. The White House has given a big boost to the burgeoning sector with its pledge to facilitate putting 30 gigawatts of offshore wind in the water by 2030 as part of a broader plan to decarbonize the economy by midcentury. To reach the 2050 target, however, offshore wind would need to swell to 300 GW on the East Coast alone, said Eric Hines, a civil and environmental engineering expert at Tufts University, during an offshore wind panel hosted by Resources for the Future last week. Hines is not alone in his assessment. While the Biden administration was lauded by industry and activists for the ambitious 30-GW target — which would be a 7,000 percent increase in offshore wind power from today — many academics crunching numbers conclude that the level of emissions cuts called for by Biden would require a lot more power. A Princeton University study last year estimated that the United States may need to triple its transmission to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, for example. “The current power grid took 150 years to build. Now, to get to net-zero emissions by 2050, we must build that amount of transmission again in the next 15 years and then build that much more again in the 15 years after that," said Princeton professor Jesse Jenkins, a co-author of the study, at the time of its release. Currently, developers are paying for and building transmission project by project. In Virginia, for instance, Dominion Energy is laying nine cables that are bundled at a central location and connecting to an existing substation for its Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project. For Vineyard Wind, a 35-mile cable will land at Barnstable, Mass., on Cape Cod. “Once we get beyond that first 30 GW, we are really going to have our hands tied as an industry,” said Bill White, president of Avangrid Renewables, during the Resources for the Future panel. Avangrid has a 50 percent stake in Vineyard Wind, the first full-scale offshore wind farm approved for construction in the United States. It broke ground earlier this year.

Boston's new mayor promised free public transit. Can she make it happen? --As a Boston mayoral candidate, Michelle Wu stood out as a longtime champion of fare-free transit.“Free public transportation is the single biggest step we could take toward economic mobility, racial equity, and climate justice,” Wu wrote back in 2019, in an op-ed for the Boston Globe. Since then, she’s galvanized opposition to fare hikes through protests andpetitions, and — famously — continued to crisscross Boston on the city’s subway system, known colloquially as the “T.”Since clinching the mayorship on November 2, Wu is now faced with the difficult task of delivering on a major campaign promise to eliminate fares for the city’s transit options. “Free the T” was a catchy campaign slogan, but the proposal’s feasibility remains an open question — one that could have reverberations beyond Beantown, as other major cities like Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., experiment with reducing or eliminating their transit fares.Supporters of free transit see the elimination of ticket fares as a convenient way to slash emissions and increase equity. Making buses and subways more accessible can boost transit ridership, they say, potentially taking cars off the road and alleviating the financial burden of a daily ticket.But opponents of the idea argue that even if city politicians were able to unilaterally eliminate fares for public transportation, fare-free transit is a financially untenable pipe dream. Boston’s transportation authority, for example, has long suffered budgetary shortfalls, with a September report from a watchdog organization saying that the system faces a “fiscal calamity.”This is in part because state and local public transit authorities, including the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, or the MBTA, have long relied on one-time state and federal relief funds and project grants to complete necessary maintenance and upgrades. Ticket fares are a much-needed steady source of income — they brought in about one-third of the MBTA’s revenue in both2019 and 2020 — and some say that eliminating them could deepen agencies’ financial woes. New funding would have to come from other sources — perhaps alocal-option sales or property tax, or new taxes on fuel providers and ride-hailing services. But according to Rosalie Singerman Ray, an assistant professor of geography and environmental studies at Texas State University,* transit’s most pressing need is a consistent stream of investment from Congress. “What would make fare-free transit feasible is federal dollars,” she said — like the assistance that states received as part of the March 2020CARES Act, but permanent. One recent proposal — the Freedom to Move Act, championed by Representative Ayanna Pressley and Senator Ed Markey, both Democrats from Massachusetts — would help cities like Boston get part of the way there. But according to Ray, even that proposal, which would have established a $5 billion competitive grant program to offset transit authorities’ fare revenues, would need to be expanded to eliminate transit fares across the country.

Work stops, for now, on NECEC’s $250 million Lewiston converter station project - The city of Lewiston issued four building permits for New England Clean Energy Connect’s converter station project at 1653 Main St. in November — one for an 18,100-square foot building for $5.9 million, another 11,822-square feet for $2.9 million, another 7,000-square feet for $928,682 and a fourth 1,200-square feet for $359,476. The buildings were all part of what’s been estimated as a $250 million project at the site. With the Maine Department of Environmental Protecting suspending the license and prohibiting ongoing construction on NECEC’s $1 billion power transmission line late last month as the project winds through the courts, work at the Lewiston converter station is instead now being buttoned up, according to Gerry Mirabile, director of permitting and compliance for the NECEC project. “Since the 23rd, no new construction has been done,” he said Monday. “The only work that’s been done at the converter station and elsewhere in the project is either to complete any work that needs to be complete for safety reasons or to do any work that needed to be done to make the site stable.” That includes, in Lewiston, putting grates on culverts so children or animals can’t get trapped and bolting down stormwater grates to prevent accidental falls.

As Pittsfield power plant seeks permit renewal, environmental groups call for clean-energy transition - The Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection will hold a hearing Tuesday over a local power plant’s request for the renewal of its operating permit. The hearing is pretty typical stuff for the plant, Pittsfield Generating Company, which has its permit reviewed every five years. But this year, local environmental activists hope this hearing is anything but rote for the plant. For months, a coalition of environmental activists led by the Berkshire Environmental Action Team has pushed for the closure of the plant or for a redesign that would swap the plant’s use of fossil fuels for clean energy alternatives. That push has gained support from both the Pittsfield Board of Health and local state representatives. Peaker plants are power plants that run primarily when demand for electricity reaches its “peak.” Since the plants are only needed at these peak points, the plants lie dormant most of the time. According to the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, peaker plants like the Pittsfield Generating plant operate less than 10 percent of the year. There are a handful of peaker plantsthroughout the Berkshires: the Pittsfield Generating plant on Merrill Road and another plant on Doreen Street in Pittsfield and one on Woodland Road in Lee. The Pittsfield Generating plant is 31 years old and runs on fracked natural gas and oil — a design that’s normal for peaker plants across the state. But that design is the plant’s biggest sticking point with environmentalists. Last year, the plant produced 3.2 tons of nitrogen oxides and 19,152 tons of carbon dioxide — down 55 percent from the 7.3 tons of nitrogen oxides and 42,321 tons of carbon dioxide the plant produced in 2019 according to datafrom the Environmental Protection Agency. Earlier this year, The Eagle’s Danny Jin covered the bevy of potential public health impacts that can come from living in the shadow of these peaker plants. The pollution put out by peaker plants can increase the risk of developing asthma, impair lung function and lower heart health.

Clean-Energy Advocates Urge MassDEP to Deny Pittsfield Plant Permit .— State officials, residents, and representatives from various organizations requested Tuesday night that the permit for a power-generating facility be denied or made provisional to make way for cleaner solutions such as grid energy storage. About two dozen people attended the public hearing held virtually by the state Department of Environmental Protection for Pittsfield Generating Co.'s facility located to 235 Merrill Road. The company is seeking an Air Quality Operating Permit. A draft permit was issued on Nov. 17 and if approved, it would renew operations for five years. "Clearly this is the moment we need to be acting as robustly as possible in kind of redirecting our use of peaker plants and making sure we're doing everything we can to reduce our emissions and standing up for environmental justice communities," state Senator Adam Hinds said. "And it starts right here one permit at a time, one plant at a time, one community at a time." A "Zoom bomber," or many, interrupted testimonies at various points during the hearing. Berkshire Environmental Action Team has led the movement with a campaign "Put Peakers in the Past" demanding that the three peaking power plants located in Berkshire County revert to only renewable and clean alternatives. "The facility is considered to be a major source since it has the potential to emit greater than major source thresholds for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide, though actual emissions are much lower," Marc Simpson, MassDEP's section chief for the Western Regional Office Air Program, said.

NPS plan to swap steam for natural gas fuels fight in Philly - The National Park Service is under fire for a decision to disconnect from the city of Philadelphia’s steam-heating system and use independent natural gas boilers to heat dozens of its buildings, including historic Independence Hall. Joseph Minott, the executive director of the Clean Air Council, said the move runs counter to President Biden’s pledge at the COP 26 climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, last month to cut domestic greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030. “To me, it was striking that at the time President Biden was in Glasgow telling everyone that we all need to get together and reduce methane emissions that the park service was entering into a long-term contract for methane,” Minott said in an interview yesterday. “That disconnect is quite dramatic.” Convinced that the Biden administration now has a perfect opportunity to put its money where its mouth is, Minott wants Interior Secretary Deb Haaland to intervene and block NPS from proceeding with its project. “The Department of the Interior and the National Park Service must look to decrease their greenhouse gas emissions, not increase them,” Minott said in one of two letters he wrote to Haaland. The Interior Department declined to comment, while NPS defended the move, saying it would save taxpayers money.

CMP parent company accused of wasteful spending to pad payouts — A cybersecurity firm sued the parent company of Central Maine Power Co. in federal court this week, alleging it engineered a bid-rigging scheme in the tens of millions of dollars aimed at increasing payouts from ratepayers. Avangrid, a U.S. subsidiary of the Spain-based Iberdrola, categorically denied the allegations contained in the bombshell lawsuit from Pennsylvania-based Security Limits Inc., calling its CEO “a disgruntled subcontractor” who was angry that he did not win more business. The lawsuit comes at a highly sensitive time for Avangrid and CMP. Construction has stopped on their $1 billion hydropower corridor through western Maine after voters rejected the project in a November referendum. A proposed Avangrid merger with a New Mexico utility is complicated by a criminal probe in Spain involving Iberdrola, though no wrongdoing has been charged. Gov. Janet Mills called the allegations “alarming and deeply troubling,” saying the Maine Public Utilities Commission should review the charges and ensure ratepayers were not harmed. “Any act of wrongdoing or any misconduct that harms Maine people deserves swift action, accountability, and consequences,” she said.

ERCOT inspecting more than 300 Power Plants to ensure Texas Power Grid is ready for winter – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has announced that by the end of this month, they’ll have inspected more than 300 power generation plants. Including natural gas, nuclear, coal, wind and solar generation plants. This as ERCOT moves to make sure the power grid in Texas is prepared for severe winter weather, a task they were given under the sweeping legislation signed by governor Greg Abbott back in June. One of the stipulations of the new laws require facilities to winterize their plants, companies that do not comply face a $1 million dollar fine. Brad Jones, interim CEO of ERCOT told a local newspaper that, “The weatherization program is the cornerstone of the response to winter storm. How we improve the grid relies upon how well we can get our generation weatherized. That’s why we put such a focus on this effort.” CPS Energy, which is the utility in San Antonio has announced that all of their transmission systems and generation units are fully compliant. We expect to hear more announcements in the coming weeks.

Renewable power growing in Texas, but natural gas remains king, ERCOT says in new report --Renewable power sources are making up an ever-bigger piece of Texas’ energy pie heading into 2022. That’s especially true for solar energy, which has grown exponentially on the Texas grid over the past half decade. Through November, solar panels generated 4.3 percent of the state’s electricity — a small slice, but a big increase from five years ago when solar contributed just a quarter of 1 percent of the state’s power, according to new data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state’s grid operator. Last year, wind energy overtook coal as a power source in Texas for the first time. And wind turbines’ lead over the fossil fuel grew again this year as wind farms contributed nearly a quarter of the electricity generated in Texas through November. Five years ago, wind power generated 15 percent of the state’s electricity. Even so, the amount of power produced by coal-fired power plants bounced back this year after declining each year from 2017 through 2020. The increase in coal-fired generation is likely a result of more overall power generation compared with last year as economic activity returned in 2021. The state’s generators have produced just over 3 percent more electricity this year than at the same time last year.

A Bitcoin Boom Fueled by Cheap Power, Empty Plants and Few Rules - Cryptocurrency miners are flocking to New York’s faded industrial towns, prompting concern over the environmental impact of huge computer farms. A bitcoin mining operation is opening northeast of Niagara Falls this month on the site of the last working coal plant in New York State.Across the state, a former aluminum plant in Massena, already one of the biggest cryptocurrency sites in the United States, is expanding.And in Owego, a metal-recycling mogul with 11.3 million Instagramfollowers is making a gritty start-up with banks of computers in shipping containers next to a scrapyard.Soaring Bitcoin values may be the investment talk of Wall Street, but a few hours north, in upstate New York, the buzz is about companies that are scrambling to create the digital currency by “mining” it virtually with all types and sizes of computer farms constantly whizzing through transactions.In just a few years, a swath of northern and western New York has become one of the biggest Bitcoin producers in the country. The prospectors in this digital gold rush need lots of cheap electricity to run thousands of energy-guzzling computer rigs.The area — with its cheap hydroelectric power and abundance of shuttered power plants and old factories — was ripe for Bitcoin mining. The abandoned infrastructure, often with existing connections to the power grid, can readily be converted for Bitcoin mining.The companies say they are boosting local economies by bringing industry back and creating a crypto vanguard north of New York City, where Bitcoin stock, though unpredictable, hit record highs on Wall Street this year and which the incoming mayor, Eric Adams, envisions as a cryptocurrency hub.But the surge of activity has also prompted a growing outcry over the amount of electricity and pollution involved in mining for Bitcoin. Globally, cryptocurrency mining is said to consume more electricity annually than all of Argentina. China, once home to perhaps two-thirds of all crypto mining, banned the practice this year to help achieve its carbon-reduction goals, driving some miners to New York.As a result, environmental groups say, the Wild West-style scramble, coupled with a lack of restrictions on Bitcoin mining, is threatening the state’s own emission-reduction goals, which call for more renewable power and rapid reductions in fossil-fuel emissions.Bitcoin mining companies often require only basic building or planning permits from local governments, many of them faded industrial towns eager for any new business-tax revenue they can generate.In the Finger Lakes region, a former coal plant on pristine Seneca Lake has been converted into the Greenidge Generation natural gas-burning plant, which now powers Bitcoin mining on site. Near Buffalo, a Bitcoin company is seeking cheaper electricity by taking over a part-time gas-fired power plant and revving it up for round-the-clock use.The resulting uptick in greenhouse gas emissions will hasten the impact of climate change, say environmental groups like Earthjustice and the Sierra Club, which are monitoring upstate New York’s many old natural-gas plants that could be readily repurposed as Bitcoin mining operations.Plants that buy renewable energy from the grid have also drawn complaints. Since a large Bitcoin mining plant can use more electricity than most cities in the state, environmentalists warn that crypto mining will leave other areas dependent on fossil fuel power.

Bitcoin miners say they're helping to fix the broken Texas electric grid — and Ted Cruz agrees– The Texas power grid is struggling with fluctuating energy prices and sporadic service, but the state's growing bitcoin mining community believes it can help fix it. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz agrees. "A lot of the discussion around bitcoin views bitcoin as a consumer of energy," said Cruz at an event in October. "The perspective I'm suggesting is very much the reverse, which is as a way to strengthen our energy infrastructure." The grid is called ERCOT — short for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which is the organization tasked with operating it — and it's fussy and temperamental. ERCOT powers about 90% of the state, but to run smoothly, it requires a perfect balance between supply and demand. Having too much power and not enough buyers is just as bad as everyone wanting to fire up their AC units on the same day in July. Maintaining that balance has proven to be a real challenge this year, and Texans are feeling it. The price of power per hour is all over the place, routinely going negative. Rolling blackouts at moments of peak power consumption no longer come as a surprise. A lot of people lost faith in the grid altogether after a winter storm earlier this year resulted in a multi-system meltdown that "was within minutes of a much more serious and potentially complete blackout." Crypto enthusiasts believe the fix to this problem is actually to add another electricity consumer into the mix — a buyer who will take as much power as they're given, whatever the time of day, and are just as willing to power down with a few seconds' notice. These flexible buyers are bitcoin miners. Mining for cryptocurrencies is the computationally intensive process by which new tokens are created and transactions of existing digital coins are verified. At the Texas Blockchain Summit in October, Cruz pointed to the ability of bitcoin miners to turn their rigs on or off within seconds — a feature that is hugely beneficial during times when energy needs to be shifted back to the grid to meet demand. "If you have a moment where you have a power shortage or a power crisis, whether it's a freeze or some other natural disaster where power generation capacity goes down, that creates the capacity to instantaneously shift that energy to put it back on the grid," Cruz said of the ability of bitcoin miners to shut down their operations within seconds. But not all are convinced that bitcoin miners are the solution. "Miners are a strain on the grid, not a help," said Ben Hertz-Shargel of Wood Mackenzie, a provider of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector. Hertz-Shargel is concerned that bitcoin mining would only raise peak demand, ultimately adding stress to the system.

Largest Icelandic Utility Cuts Power To Crypto-Miners Amid Grid Crunch -This week, a power crisis has developed in Iceland, forcing the island's largest utility company, Landsvirkjun, to reduce electricity to energy-intensive industries, such as data centers and metal smelters, including the denial of new power contracts to crypto miners. "The reduction does not only apply to fishmeal factories but also to those large users who have curtailable short-term contracts, such as data centers and smelters. Landsvirkjun has also rejected all requests from new customers for energy purchases due to electronic currency mining," according to Iceland Monitor. All power on the island is generated through renewable sources, with 73% of electricity provided by hydropower plants and 26.8% from geothermal energy, accounting for over 99% of total electricity consumption. The source of the power crisis is low hydro reservoir levels. Another issue is an offline power station and a delay in obtaining additional power sources from a third party. Iceland's problems appear to be very similar to what happened in Europe when wind generation collapsed, forcing the UK and other surrounding countries to transition to natural gas generation to make up for lost power, forcing fossil fuel prices higher on tight supplies. A similar instance occurred in China when Beijing forced utilities to limit power to energy-intensive industries. In the last several years, Iceland has been considered Bitcoin's green energy haven because of cheap power from hydro and geothermal energy sources; but, interestingly (and certainly not in keeping with the globalist climate change narratives), an ecologist in El Salvador said geothermal still costs more than oil, according to Decrypt.

The Achilles’ Heel of Biden’s Climate Plan? Coal Miners. - For years, environmentalists have sought compromises with labor unions in industries reliant on fossil fuels, aware that one of the biggest obstacles to cutting carbon emissions is opposition from the unions’ members. States like Washington, New York and Illinois have enacted renewable-energy laws that were backed by unions representing workers who build and maintain traditional power plants. And unions for electricians and steelworkers are rallying behind President Biden’s climate and social policy legislation, now in the Senate’s hands. But at least one group of workers appears far less enthusiastic about the deal-making: coal workers, who continue to regard clean-energy jobs as a major risk to their standard of living. “It’s definitely going to pay less, not have our insurance,” Mr. Biden has sought to address the concerns about pay with subsidies that provide incentives for wind and solar projects to offer union-scale wages. His bill includes billions in aid, training money and redevelopment funds that will help coal communities. But Phil Smith, the top lobbyist for the United Mine Workers of America, said a general skepticism toward promises of economic relief was nonetheless widespread among his members. “We’ve heard the same things over and over and over again going back to J.F.K.,” Unfortunately for Mr. Biden, this skepticism has threatened to undermine his efforts on climate change. While there are fewer than 50,000 unionized coal miners in the country, compared with the millions of industrial and construction workers who belong to unions, miners have long punched above their weight thanks to their concentration in election battleground states like Pennsylvania or states with powerful senators, like Joe Manchin III of West Virginia.When Mr. Manchin, a Democrat and one of the chamber’s swing votes, came out against Mr. Biden’s $150 billion clean electricity program in October, his move effectively killed what many environmentalists considered the most critical component of the president’s climate agenda. The miners’ union applauded. And Mr. Manchin and his constituents will continue to exert outsize influence over climate policy. Mr. Biden’s roughly $2 trillion bill includes about $550 billion in spending on green technology and infrastructure. Even if the bill passes largely intact, most experts say future government action will be necessary to stave off the catastrophic effects of global warming. It is impossible to explain mine workers’ jaundiced view of Mr. Biden’s agenda without appreciating their heightened economic vulnerability: Unlike the carpenters and electricians who work at power plants but could apply their skills to renewable-energy projects, many miners are unlikely to find jobs on wind and solar farms that resemble their current work. It is also difficult to overstate the political gamesmanship that has shaped the discourse on miners. In her 2016 presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton proposed spending $30 billion on economic aid for coal country. But a verbal miscue — “We’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business,” she said while discussing her proposal at a town hall — allowed opponents to portray her as waging a “war on coal.”

Coal retirements, supply constraints promise upside for gas in MISO this winter | S&P Global Platts - Upcoming coal plant retirements in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, along with supply constraints on the fuel, could boost market share for gas in the ISO's generation stack this winter. Earlier this year, Ameren Missouri reaffirmed its decision to retire its Meramec Unit 3 and Unit 4 generating stations near St. Louis next year, taking nearly 600 MW of coal-fired capacity offline. According to S&P Global Platts Analytics data, the retirements could come as early as the first quarter. Ameren's upcoming plant closures add to at least six other retirements in MISO this year which have collectively taken nearly 1 GW of coal-fired capacity offline. Combined, the recent and upcoming capacity changes should boost market share for gas-fired generation in the Midwest this winter. In November, natural gas accounted for about 32% of total power generation in MISO, compared with roughly 30% for coal. Near parity in the generation stack for the two fuels comes following a strong summer for coal. From June through September, generation share for coal averaged about 42% in MISO. Over the same period, gas accounted for just 30% of MISO's total power generation, ISO data showed. During the upcoming winter months, recent and upcoming capacity changes in the Midwest ISO's generation stack will magnify other downside risks for coal-fired power. This autumn, a drop in US coal production and stockpile levels has already begun to reverse a month-long gas-to-coal switching trend. In the fourth-quarter, gas-fired power burn in MISO has averaged about 3.3 Bcf/d, outpacing its year-ago average of 3 Bcf/d. The uptick comes despite a more-than-$2.50/MMBtu hike in gas prices over the past 12 months at hubs like the Chicago city-gates. Gas' recent strength has been supported in part by lagging coal supply. Fourth quarter to date, weekly US coal production has averaged about 11.3 million short tons – almost 18% below the prior five-year average. Coal stocks are also lagging. As of June 30, US stockpiles were estimated at 115.9 million st, down nearly 35% from the prior year, updated data from the US Energy Information Administration shows.

 In September, the United States was at its lowest coal stockpiles since 1978 --Coal stockpiles at U.S. electric power plants totaled 80 million tons at the end of September, the lowest monthly level since March 1978. As U.S. coal plants have retired and remaining plants are used less, the country’s total coal stockpiles have declined. In addition, increased electricity generation by coal plants during the summer of 2021 also reduced coal inventories. In the United States, coal consumption by power plants typically follows the seasonal pattern of electricity generation; most coal consumption occurs during the summer and winter months. Because power plants consume more coal during the warm summer months and the cold winter months, coal stocks at power plants often reach lows during the spring and fall when temperatures are milder. U.S. coal power plants generally stockpile much more coal than they consume in a month. Physical delivery constraints in the supply chain limit how quickly coal plants can increase their stockpiles.Days of burn, another metric to monitor the sufficiency of coal supplies, takes into account the retirement and lower utilization of coal-fired capacity. This forward-looking estimate of current inventory levels uses past consumption patterns to estimate the number of days an inventory level will last, assuming power plants receive no additional coal. Because of less coal consumption as well as coal capacity retirements over the past three years, the days of burn of U.S. coal remain within the typical range, even though total stocks are low. For bituminous coal plants, largely located in the eastern United States, the average number of days of burn was 88 days in September, a slight increase from the 86 days of burn recorded in August. The average number of days of burn for subbituminous units, most of which are in the western United States, was 82 days in September 2021.Given the long-term trend of declining coal consumption, many U.S. mines have begun to close. Reduced production capacity and supply chain disruptions have created some concerns about the ability of coal-fired generators to replenish stockpiles to last through the winter (October–March).Electric grid operators are closely monitoring coal inventories this winter. PJM, the grid operator for the largest electric system in the United States, instituted temporary changes to rules governing minimum inventory requirements to provide more flexibility for coal-fired generators, given low stockpiles at some plants and supply chain disruptions.

Judge rules Gov. Justice's coal companies owe feds, Ala. and Tenn. $2.54 million in environmental violation penalties --Another federal judge has ruled that Gov. Jim Justice’s coal companies owe millions after environmental violations.Chief U.S. District Judge Michael Urbanski ruled Tuesday that Southern Coal Corp. and two dozen other companies must pay $2.54million in penalties and clean up sites as required by Tennessee environmental regulators.A ¦ling by the U.S. Department of Justice and the states of Alabama and Tennessee in the U.S. District Court for the Western District ofVirginia alleged in March that the companies failed to comply with a 2016 consent agreement under which they pledged to addressenvironmental violations.The consent decree required Southern Coal Corp. and two-dozen other companies to pay a $900,000 civil penalty to resolve more than23,000 water pollution violations.Urbanski ruled Tuesday that the companies violated the consent decree by failing to maintain water pollution control permits for sites inAlabama and Tennessee and that Southern Coal and Premium Coal Company failed to complete necessary stabilization work at threeTennessee sites on time.The federal government sought $3.19 million from the companies, per penalties stipulated to in the agreement.The consent decree noted the companies had “limited ¦nancial ability to pay” after reviewing their ¦nancial information. It required themto provide a $4.5 million letter of credit to guarantee compliance, submit quarterly reports tracking compliance and pay daily penaltiesfor noncompliance varying by violation. The Department of Justice’s March ¦ling notes the federal government withdrew $1.5 millionfrom that line of credit.The companies argued in part that even if the consent decree required water pollution control permit compliance, the plaintiffs were onlyentitled to stipulated penalties for the defendants’ failure to submit timely renewal applications for three sites in Alabama, as they werethe only permits requiring renewal that were in effect at the time of the alleged violations.Urbanski was unpersuaded, noting that if the consent decree did not bar the defendants from operating sites without water pollutioncontrol permits, they could avoid the consent decree’s stipulations by simply allowing their permits to expire.

Gambling ‘America’s Amazon’ – CNN - Alabama’s largest utility plans to bury a heap of toxic coal waste in one of North America’s most biodiverse river systems. Experts say it will put one of the nation’s most pristine wetlands at risk. Most Americans had likely never heard of coal ash until three days before Christmas 2008, when the Kingston spill news broke. After Congress passed the Clean Air Act of 1970, which regulated power plants’ air emissions, some facilities began storing their coal ash in dirt ditches, commonly known today as ash ponds or surface impoundments. Hundreds of these sites now dot the country, according to data that federal regulations require pond operators to publish and was compiled by Earthjustice, a nonprofit that handles environmental lawsuits. Because coal plants produce electricity by converting large volumes of water into steam, many of these waste sites are situated near river systems and flood zones. But 40 or fewer have a protective liner to contain the leftover ash, and more than 200 have been shown to contaminate groundwater with toxic substances at levels that exceed federal safety standards, the Earthjustice data shows. With the Clean Air Act, the nation traded one environmental problem for another, Evans, who works for Earthjustice, said. “One could see the billowing black smoke,” Evans said. “You can’t see coal ash contaminating underlying groundwater (…) you can’t see the slow pollution of the adjacent river and the dying of the fish (…) It’s likely to be less dramatic.” After 5.4 million cubic yards of coal ash spilled at the Kingston plant, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designated the area as a Superfund site. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), which owned the plant, spent more than $1 billion over six years to clean up the spill. The Kingston, Tennessee spill was an environmental calamity, and the fallout was immediate. The ash blanketed up to 400 acres, killed hundreds of fish, damaged more than a dozen homes and polluted nearby waterways. The clean-up took years and cost more than $1 billion. The aftermath “was like nothing I’ve ever seen before,” Richard Moore, who served as the inspector general for the TVA at the time, said. “It was like a scene out of a horror movie.”Tommy Johnson — like Bledsoe, the worker who compared the Kingston spill to the moon’s surface — was at the facility that day. He spent six years working on the clean-up effort and said he believes exposure to the coal ash made him sick.In 2018, Johnson joined more than 200 plaintiffs in suing Jacobs Engineering, a TVA contractor hired to oversee the Kingston cleanup, alleging Jacobs lied to workers about the ash’s toxicity. Bledsoe was also part of a suit, which was filed in 2013. A jury eventually found that Jacobs failed to keep workers safe during the cleanup and that this failure could have caused the illnesses and injuries they suffered. The parties are now litigating over whether individual workers’ illnesses are a result of coal ash exposure. Coal ash, an umbrella term for the residue that’s left over when utilities burn coal, is one of the United States’ largest kinds of industrial waste. It contains metals — such as lead, mercury, chromium, selenium, cadmium and arsenic — that never biodegrade. Studies have shown these contaminants are dangerous to humans and have linked some to cancer, lung disease and birth defects. For a time, the Kingston incident catapulted coal ash into the public consciousness. But experts say it continues to pose a massive threat throughout the country. About 400 miles southwest of Kingston, a coal ash lagoon — which holds almost four times as much sludge as what spilled in Tennessee — is sitting in the Mobile–Tensaw Delta, one of the most biodiverse areas of the United States, with flora and fauna not known to exist anywhere else on Earth. Environmentalists, community members and scientists fear the pond could someday unleash a Kingston-like catastrophe on southern Alabama and say leaving the coal ash in the delta is shortsighted and dangerous. “We’ve got an A-bomb up the river,” John Howard, who lives in Mobile County and said he has been fishing in southern Alabama for decades, said. “It’s just waiting to happen.”

Is there a coal ash pond near you? Check this map. – CNN --On Sunday, CNN published "Gambling 'America's Amazon,'" an investigation on a toxic coal ash pond in southern Alabama that experts say threatens one of the nation's most pristine wetlands.Alabama Power, the state's largest utility, owns the waste site, which lacks a liner to contain the ash and is contaminating groundwater.Federal regulations have required Alabama Power to close the pond, which it plans to do by sealing the coal ash in place. Environmental groups have called on the utility to dig it up and move it to a safer site.The problem is not unique to Alabama. Coal ash is one of the largest types of industrial waste in the United States, and hundreds of coal ash ponds dot the country, according to data that federal regulations require pond operators to publish and was compiled byEarthjustice, a nonprofit that handles environmental lawsuits. Following changes in federal regulations, many utilities are wrestling with what to do with massive amounts of the material that have accumulated over decades.Coal ash is an umbrella term for the residue that's left over when utilities burn coal. It contains metals — such as lead, mercury, chromium, selenium, cadmium and arsenic — that never biodegrade. Studies have shown these contaminants are dangerous to humans and have linked some to cancer, lung disease and birth defects.There are several types of coal ash, including fly ash, which is fine and powdery, bottom ash which is heavy and coarse, and boiler slag, which is melted bottom ash. There's also flue gas desulfurization gypsum, also known as FGD gypsum, which is left over when utilities use scrubbers to reduce emissions during the coal burning process. Before the 1970s, many utilities pumped their coal waste into the atmosphere, said attorney Lisa Evans, who has focused on coal ash litigation for more than 20 years and works for Earthjustice. After Congress passed the Clean Air Act of 1970, which regulated power plants' air emissions, some facilities began storing much of their coal ash in dirt ditches, commonly known today as ash ponds or surface impoundments. Some of them are large. The one CNN examined in Alabama spans 597 acres and is nearly the size of the National Mall. There are an estimated 511 coal ash ponds in the United States, according to a CNN analysis of the data compiled by Earthjustice. Environmentalists often raise two major concerns about coal ash ponds: that they can contaminate groundwater and that infrastructure could fail and trigger a catastrophic spill.Earthjustice's data shows that, like the Alabama pond in CNN's investigation, nearly half — about 46% — of known ponds are unlined and have been or will be closed in place.Environmental advocates say capping-in-place, the plan chosen by Alabama Power, is not always an effective option for coal ash ponds where coal ash sits below the water table, the point below which the ground is saturated with water, because the cap does not prevent contaminants from leaching into the surrounding area. Across the United States, 40 or fewer ponds have a protective liner to contain the ash, and more than 200 have been shown to contaminate groundwater with toxic substances at levels that exceed federal safety standards, the Earthjustice data shows.Humans can be exposed to leachate from coal ash ponds mainly through drinking water, particularly through private drinking wells that may not be monitored the way public systems are, or by consuming fish that have been affected.

Sierra Club appealing coal ash ruling to Georgia Supreme Court — The Sierra Club is asking the Georgia Supreme Court to take up its challenge of Georgia Power’s plan to collect from customers $525 million in coal ash pond closure costs. Both a trial court in Fulton County and the Georgia Court of Appeals have upheld a decision by the state Public Service Commission (PSC) to let the Atlanta-based utility recover a portion of the costs of closing all 29 of its ash ponds at 11 coal-burning power plants across Georgia, nearly $9 billion according to the latest estimate. Coal ash contains contaminants including mercury, cadmium and arsenic that can pollute groundwater and drinking water as well as air. Georgia Power plans to excavate and remove the ash from 19 ponds and close the other 10 ponds in place. Lawyers for the Sierra Club have argued the PSC failed to take into account Georgia Power’s culpability in creating the coal ash problem to begin with, and thus should not be allowed to pass all of those costs onto customers. “Georgia Power made a decision to cut corners by continuing to store coal ash in unlined pits, disregarding the health and safety of Georgia communities and their waterways,” said Charline Whyte, senior campaign representative for the Sierra Club’s Beyond Campaign in Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. “If the lower court’s ruling is left unchecked, it will leave the door wide open for Georgia Power to continue to flip the bill to its customers for years to come.” Georgia Power’s lawyers have countered that the utility’s ash pond closure plan complies with federal regulations as well as more stringent state requirements and that the PSC has thoroughly reviewed the cost recovery issue in making its decision.

Ohio utilities overcharge customers more than $1.5 billion -Almost everyone in Ohio pays for utilities and if you live in the Miami Valley, you’re probably a customer of AES Ohio or Duke Energy. But it isn’t always easy to understand what you are paying for. On your bill may be lines for items like so-called “stability riders,” which might be worded to seem like you’re paying for upgraded services.There’s an ongoing case in front of the state supreme court that says AES has been overcharging its customers. Shay Frank spoke with Ohio State University associate professor of public policy Noah Dormady about what a stability rider is, and what power companies in the state are actually charging for.

• SF: A lot of the legal language in this case, which is why we've reached out to you, has been very confusing. And I've been talking to people, doing the research, and I imagine it's even more confusing for consumers who may not even know what they've been overcharged and why it's unfair. Can you explain to me exactly what is happening with these riders?
• ND: Well, I think you need to go back to understanding the process of even having a rider on your electricity bill. And in order to understand that, you kind of need to go back and understand how our state restructured or what we call deregulated. We joined a 13 state regional energy market, the PJM Interconnection, where we allowed competition instead of regulated price protections. We allowed competition to take hold of the wholesale market.
• In that process of deregulation, we set up a system here in Ohio that creates a number of perverse incentives. And one of those perverse incentives is an incentive for utilities to add all sorts of riders that they can profit and make additional revenues from supplemental revenues through add-on charges to your electric bill.
• SF: A lot of the language that I've seen has been "unlawful charges," unlawful this and that about the riders. So is it actually all illegal? The terminology is confusing in that aspect.
• ND: Well, when people say that a rider is illegal, typically what they mean is that the rider is inconsistent with the sunset provisions of cost pass throughs allowed by Senate Bill 3, that basically said transition costs should have ended around 2005. Those transition costs were prolonged and continue to be prolonged. And so collecting charges that are related to generation, and they don't even own those generation units anymore, some people will argue, and I think I'm among them, will argue that that is inconsistent with Ohio law.

Did Ohio board certify Icebreaker wind project with enough bird, bat research? Ohio Supreme Court to decide - cleveland.com -– An Ohio panel that approves wind farm construction projects approved a certificate to the Icebreaker project on Lake Erie in violation of state law, which requires more detailed bird and bat research than was submitted to the state, an attorney representing two Bratenahl residents told the Ohio Supreme Court on Tuesday.Mark Tucker, representing residents W. Susan Dempsey and Robert M. Maloney, who oppose the project, argued that the Ohio Supreme Court should toss the Ohio Power Siting Board’s certificate to Icebreaker Windpower Inc., which plans to build a demonstration project of six turbines, generating 20.7 megawatts of electricity, eight to 10 miles off the shore of Cleveland.

EIA: Most new natural gas-fired capacity to be from Appalachia region - A total of 27.3 gigawatts (GW) new natural gas-fired are scheduled to come online in the United States between 2022 and 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Monthly Electric Generator Inventory. This is a 6 percent increase from August’s baseline capacity of 489.1 GW. Many of the planned natural gas-fired capacity additions are located in the Appalachia region close to major shale plays as well as in Texas and in Florida. The Appalachia region stretches across Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, and includes the Marcellus and Utica shale plays. Over the past several years, these shale plays have led the growth in U.S. natural gas production, and were 34 percent of U.S. dry natural gas production in the first half of 2021. Four states – Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Illinois – have pipeline access to natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale plays. These states account for a combined 43% of the natural gas-fired capacity planned to come online Pennsylvania has the fewest planned additions, only 1.9 GW. Illinois has the most at 3.8 GW, followed by Michigan, 3.2 GW, and Ohio, 2.9 GW. In addition, natural gas transport infrastructure is expected to continue to increase the region’s pipeline takeaway capacity.

Certifying Appalachia Natural Gas as Responsibly Sourced Expands for Private E&Ps, Midstreamers - More Lower 48 producers and increasingly, midstream operators, are looking to Project Canary to earn environmental certification for their natural gas supplies. Related entities Tug Hill Operating LLC and XcL Midstream Operating LLC, which principally operate in West Virginia’s Marshall and Wetzel counties, have partnered to gain the responsibly sourced gas (RSG) designation across all of their upstream and midstream operations. Earlier this year, privately held exploration and production (E&P) company Tug Hill launched a pilot in which 45 wells were certified through Project Canary’s TrustWell system. “The partnership between Tug Hill and XcL means, for the first time, gas purchasers will have the opportunity to buy RSG that has been TrustWell certified from the wellhead to the receipt point,” said CEO Michael Radler, who oversees both companies. Tug Hill produces more than 800 MMcf/d of gas and delivers it to market via XcL’s gathering system. Tug Hill and Xcl, both sponsored by private equity giant Quantum Energy Partners, would be the first upstream and midstream companies to jointly seek independent certification of 100% of their operating assets. The management teams “believe the integration of independent, high fidelity upstream and midstream certifications will result in a unique and unmatched RSG offering for the market.” Earlier this year, Tug Hill joined Our Nation’s Energy Future, aka ONE Future, a coalition that has pledged to reduce collective methane emissions to 1% or lower. “Tug Hill places an extremely high focus on operational excellence, sustainability and being a good neighbor within the communities where we operate,” said COO Sean Willis. “Tug Hill is committed to utilizing high fidelity technology and rigorous operating standards to reduce the methane intensity of our operations and produce energy responsibly.”

Sunoco Ordered to Dredge Lake, Pay $4M Over Pipeline Spill - A pipeline developer will dredge part of a contaminated lake and pay more than $4 million for spilling thousands of gallons of drilling fluids at a popular state park outside Philadelphia, Pennsylvania state officials announced Monday. Sunoco Pipeline LP will dredge at least six inches of sediment from Ranger Cove, part of Marsh Creek State Park in Downingtown. It will also replace fish, turtle and bird habitat, restore the shoreline, and reroute its Mariner East 2 pipeline, according to the state Departments of Environmental Protection and Conservation and Natural Resources, which jointly announced the settlement. The spill, which happened in August 2020 during construction of the troubled pipeline, contaminated wetlands, tributaries and part of the 535-acre lake. About 33 acres of the lake were placed off limits to boating and fishing because of the spill. The natural resources department said it will use the $4 million from Sunoco for park rehabilitation and improvements that will include an accessible boat launch, a visitor center and suppression of invasive species, among other things. The 1,784-acre park in Chester County hosts more than 1 million visitors each year. “Southeast Pennsylvania lost a significant recreational resource when the impacted area of the lake was closed due to the drilling fluid impacts, and many residents and community members expressed the need to restore those opportunities,” said Conservation and Natural Resources Secretary Cindy Adams Dunn. A message was sent to Energy Transfer, Sunoco's corporate parent, seeking comment. The August 2020 spill at Marsh Creek was among a series of mishaps that has plagued Mariner East since construction began in 2017. In October, Energy Transfer, the developer of the multi-billion-dollar pipeline project, was charged criminally after a grand jury concluded that it flouted Pennsylvania environmental laws and fouled waterways and residential water supplies across hundreds of miles. The company has yet to enter a plea in the case. Energy Transfer has also been assessed more than $24 million in civil fines, including a $12.6 million fine in 2018 that was one of the largest ever imposed by the state. State regulators have periodically shut down construction.

Mariner East builder Sunoco agrees to $4M settlement over Marsh Creek Lake spill --Mariner East pipeline builder Sunoco, a subsidiary of Energy Transfer, will pay $4 million to the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources as part of a settlement that allows the company to resume construction near Marsh Creek Lake State Park in Chester County. The company spilled between 21,000 and 28,000 gallons of drilling mud into the 535-acre Marsh Creek Lake in August 2020, which led to the shut down of a part of the lake known as Ranger’s Cove, and a halt to construction along the approximately one-mile-long stretch of pipe. The settlement comes just two months after Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro filed 48 criminal charges related to Mariner East construction against the Texas-based company, including a felony of failing to report a pollution event. The grand jury report singled out the Marsh Creek Lake spill as one of several examples where Sunoco under-reported the amount of drilling mud released into the lake. The mud is primarily bentonite clay, which is non-toxic to humans but can kill macroinvertebrates, or small aquatic life that provide food for larger fish. The grand jury also reported the company used unauthorized chemicals in its drilling mud. The settlement requires Sunoco to dredge the top 6 inches of sediment in Ranger’s Cove; replace damaged fish, turtle, and bird habitat; remove all dredging material from the lake, as well as restore the shoreline and streamside buffers. The company will also pay a penalty of $341,000 for DEP permit violations and post a $4 million bond to ensure completion of the remediation. The $4 million payment to DCNR will be used toward “rehabilitation and improvements to the park, including an accessible boat launch, stream and shoreline restoration, invasive species suppression, efficiency measures that will take the park to net-zero energy, and to add a public visitor center to the park office,” according to a press release from DCNR. Marsh Creek Lake Park is a popular spot for boating and fishing. The spill drew outrage and protests from the surrounding community of West Whiteland Township, especially since Mariner East pipeline construction had already led to sinkholes and drinking water contamination in Chester County. Residents of Southeastern Pennsylvania have fiercely opposed the natural gas liquids pipeline due to safety concerns, and the spill renewed calls for a complete halt to construction. Gov. Tom Wolf has said he will not halt construction, but would hold the company accountable for pollution. “Southeast Pennsylvania lost a significant recreational resource when the impacted area of the lake was closed due to the drilling fluid impacts, and many residents and community members expressed the need to restore those opportunities,” said Department of Conservation and Natural Resources Secretary Cindy Dunn. “This resolution will put us on the fastest track possible to dredge and restore Ranger Cove, and also will result in habitat and visitor improvements at Pennsylvania’s fifth most-visited state park.” Not everyone praised the agreement. Virginia Kerslake from the group Del-Chesco United, which opposes the pipeline, said it is more “pay to pollute.” “It is unconscionable that the DEP has given approval to resume Mariner East construction at Marsh Creek Lake to this serial violator, which has racked up 48 criminal charges, and has still not cleaned up the 21,000 gallons of drilling mud spilled into our treasured lake and water reservoir in August 2020,” Kerslake said.

CNX chief calls for change in Pa.'s gas impact fees -The head of one of Pennsylvania’s largest natural gas producers had sharp words Tuesday regarding state impact fees and claimed the industry has been “villified” by opponents. Nick DeIuliis, chief executive of CNX Resources Corp. of Cecil, called for a revamp of the impact fee levied on natural gas producers, which have pumped more than $2 billion into the coffers of state and local governments since 2012. “We’ve (natural gas producers) paid more than our fair share” over the past nine years under Act 13, a formula used to determine the levy, DeIuliis said Tuesday during a speech to industry representatives at the David L. Lawrence Convention Center in Pittsburgh. No other energy sector pays an equivalent impact fee to the state, DeIuliis said. “It’s time for a refresher,” DeIuliis said to more than 200 representatives at the DUG East and Marcellus-Utica Midstream Conference. The formula for levying the annual impact fees, primarily on the operators of unconventional gas wells, is determined by a multiyear fee schedule based on the average natural gas price. The fees can be adjusted to reflect increases in the Consumer Price Index if the total number of unconventional wells spud in a given year exceeds the number the previous year, according to the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. DeIuliis said after his speech that he did not have a specific formula in mind, but it should be one in which the gas industry production can increase, while raising more money for those benefiting from the fee. The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission said the state has collected more than $2 billion since Act 13 was enacted in February 2012. For production in 2020, the state collected $146.2 million from the impact fee, which was down from $251 million in 2018. About $71 million of the 2020 collection was distributed to county and local governments, while the state took $23.7 million to cover the impact on state agencies of drilling activities. Local governments can spend the money on infrastructure projects, water and stormwater projects, emergency preparedness and public safety and environmental programs, including trails.

Pennsylvania Nears Approval of New Oil And Gas Methane Rule -- Pennsylvania is in the final stages of approving a new rule that would crack down on methane emissions from older oil and gas infrastructure, while exempting a vast number of low-producing wells. The rule would be a significant change for producers in the state, which is the second-largest natural gas producer in the U.S., responsible for about one-fifth of the country’s gas output in 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. While many states have imposed methane limits on new wells, Pennsylvania is joining only a handful, including Colorado and New Mexico, that have restrictions on older wells. Those can be a major source of emissions relative to their production. Texas, the largest gas producer, has no methane limits at all.

Diversified Investing $9M for Aerial Scans to Detect Methane Leaks --In November Diversified Energy announced it is expanding methane emissions detection at the company’s operations in the Appalachian Basin by deploying an extra 500 handheld detection devices (in addition to 100 already in use) at its worksites (seeDiversified Uses Handheld Devices to Detect, Eliminate Methane Leaks). Diversified owns close to 8 million acres of leases with some 67,000 (mostly) conventional oil and gas wells (with over 400 Marcellus/Utica shale wells). The company has just announced it will further expand its methane detection efforts by investing $9 million over the next three years to use LiDAR detection. LiDAR stands for precision laser imaging, detection, and ranging equipment used to identify methane emissions from gas and oil facilities. Diversified cut a deal with Montana-based Bridger Photonics to perform multi-year aerial scans of Diversified’s natural gas production and distribution assets, beginning with the company’s assets in the Appalachian region.Diversified used Bridger earlier this year in a field trial to aerially detect fugitive natural gas emissions in a large segment of a pipeline Diversified acquired in Appalachia. They obviously liked the results from that test. In early 2021, Diversified collaborated with Bridger to aerially detect fugitive natural gas emissions in a large segment of pipeline the Company acquired in Appalachia. During the field trial, Diversified confirmed that Bridger’s advanced LiDAR technology detected emissions well below the EPA-defined leak definition of 500 parts per million.Based on the successful field trial and as part of its $15 million annual initial funding commitment, the Company will expand its investment in aerial emissions scanning activities by spending $3 million per year on this aerial methane emissions detection over the next three years. This partnership with Bridger further validates the Company’s investment in aerial LiDAR announced at its 17 November 2021 Capital Markets Day. Initially, Diversified will focus its scanning efforts on its Appalachian operations, and expects to expand the program to cover its assets in the Central Region.The aerial emissions detection scans, coupled with newly deployed handheld detection devices, support Diversified’s commitment to perform comprehensive fugitive emissions assessments at all Appalachia wells by mid-2023, reflective of Diversified’s zero-tolerance policy toward fugitive natural gas emissions. Diversified’s investment in aerial emissions detection is an extension of its Smarter Asset Management (“SAM”) program focused on operational excellence, stewardship of existing assets and enhanced asset integrity that serves as a return on this methane emission-reduction investment.

'Responsibly sourced' tag could shift from bonus to necessity for gas drillers --Shale gas drillers face increasing market pressure to have their product certified as "responsibly sourced," even though gas awarded the designation might not fetch a premium price. "The paradigm shift is going to be: If your gas is not certified in one way or another, you may not be able to sell it," Jennifer Stewart, principal adviser to nonprofit Equitable Origin Inc., told an audience of shale executives Dec. 8 at Hart Energy's DUG East conference. Equitable Origin has a set of environmental, social and governance standards for producers desiring certification as responsibly sourced natural gas. Industry players have begun responding to concerns over greenhouse gas emissions in the natural gas supply chain by competing to offer the cleanest supplies, and certification offers a way to assure buyers that drillers are limiting methane emissions at their production and gathering operations. Two private Appalachian shale gas drillers used the conference to announce that they are seeking certification from Project Canary Inc., a widely used auditor of methane emissions. Tug Hill Operating LLC, backed by private equity firm Quantum Energy Partners LLC, and Blackstone Inc.-backed Olympus Energy LLC are joining their larger, publicly traded peers in pursuing certification, which could help them market to overseas LNG buyers that have been uneasy about the amount of methane emitted in producing and transporting the gas. Gas traders are "blowing our phones up" with questions about certified low-emissions natural gas, Stewart said. "I think we've had a call almost every day this week from various trading shops wanting to know about certified gas: 'How do we buy your certified gas, and who do we buy it from?'" But due to the opacity of bilateral gas trades, it is not clear that those buyers are willing to pay a premium for the certified gas. Stewart said that when she worked at Southwestern Energy Co., the shale gas producer closed four deals for responsibly sourced gas, and all received a premium price. Regulatory agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Energy Department have expressed interest in the standards and process for getting certified, Stewart said, but the market will decide what value, if any, a "responsibly sourced" tag will have. To venture capitalist Chris Kalnin, the certification debate misses the point. "You need to go to end consumers and help them help you pay for some of your ESG efforts, just like organic food in the grocery store," Kalnin told executives at the conference. "I don't believe that you're going to go out in the market and be able to charge a premium for renewable gas or responsible gas."

National Grid says not ‘more than 20 gallons’ of coal tar oil spilled in Seekonk River at Tidewater Landing site - The Boston Globe -On Dec. 1, weathered coal tar oil breached the booms at National Grid’s $400 million Tidewater Landing site in Pawtucket, marking the second spill in the last month at the site — Officials at National Grid told the Globe that it’s likely that “no more than 20 gallons” of weathered coal tar oil breached the absorbent boom and turbidity curtain in the Seekonk River last week. Ted Kresse, a spokesman with the company, said National Grid is not characterizing the breach as “a spill,” and that it’s difficult to calculate exactly how much oil seeped into the river. “Considering this isn’t a traditional ‘spill’ where the volume released might be easily quantifiable in comparison to a spill from a broken pipe or hit tanker, we do not know the exact amount of coal tar oils that seeped into the river and breached the boom containment system,” said Kresse in an email to the Globe. “That being said, an initial analysis estimated that it would likely not have been more than 20 gallons of weathered coal tar that breached the absorbent boom and turbidity curtain based on the type of sheen observed and the area the sheen covered.”

US District Court issues wrist slap fine for serious environmental pollution at BP refinery in northwest Indiana - The UK-based oil giant BP has been ordered to pay the US federal government $500,000 in fines for emitting illegal amounts of soot particles into the air from its Whiting, Indiana oil refinery, according to a legal settlement filed last Thursday in the US District Court of Hammond, Indiana. The Chicago Tribune reported that BP’s own testing revealed that catalytic crackers, which help turn crude oil into gasoline, were emitting “concentrations of particulate matter,” more commonly known as soot, in excess of legal limits between 2016 and 2018. The recent lawsuit found that BP was in violation of the terms of an agreement from a 2012 lawsuit brought by the US Department of Justice and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), including BP’s failure to “properly operate pollution-control equipment” during that period when BP was required to install the equipment as a result of the 2012 settlement. The 2012 lawsuit alleged “violations of the Clean Air Act at the Whiting refinery in connection with the construction and expansion of the refinery, as well as violations of a 2001 consent decree with the company that covered all of BP’s refineries and was entered into as part of EPA’s Petroleum Refinery Initiative.” In the 2012 settlement which the company signed, BP agreed to pay an $8 million penalty and invest more than $400 million to install pollution controls and cut emissions and reduce air pollution by over 4,000 tons per year. The settlement recognized that BP’s activities were harmful to life in the area around northwest Indiana, which includes the Chicago metropolitan area, stating that they “can cause respiratory problems such as asthma and are significant contributors to acid rain, smog and haze.” A number of nonprofit groups were represented in Thursday’s lawsuit, including the Environmental Integrity Project (EIP), the Environmental Law and Policy Center, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), Save the Dunes Project, and the Sierra Club. Ann Alexander, senior attorney at NRDC, told the Tribune that “We sued [BP] in 2008 for Clean Air Act violations, reached an agreement with them to curb emissions in 2012, and now here we are in 2021 reaching another agreement after they violated the first one.” In April of this year, a separate court ruling issued by Judge Philip P. Simon of the U.S. District Court in Northern Indiana found that BP “repeatedly violated legal limits on deadly soot-like particulate air pollution.” The Sierra Club and Environmental Integrity Project had sued the corporation in 2019 because the Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM) did not act against BP to enforce the terms it agreed to in the 2012 lawsuit, according to an April 14 post on the Sierra Club’s website. The Sierra Club and EIP found that between August 3, 2015 and October 9, 2018, the results of nine emissions tests conducted by BP on the smokestacks from three of its boilers at the refinery showed that the company continued to release “soot-like particles” into the air “over the permitted limits.” Although these results were available publicly online through the IDEM as part of the 2012 agreement, the IDEM did not intervene and allowed BP to continue the violations.

Meet a clean water activist fighting to protect Virginia streams from the Mountain Valley Pipeline -— State officials, residents, and representatives from various organizations requested Tuesday night that the permit for a power-generating facility be denied or made provisional to make way for cleaner solutions such as grid energy storage. About two dozen people attended the public hearing held virtually by the state Department of Environmental Protection for Pittsfield Generating Co.'s facility located to 235 Merrill Road. The company is seeking an Air Quality Operating Permit. A draft permit was issued on Nov. 17 and if approved, it would renew operations for five years. "Clearly this is the moment we need to be acting as robustly as possible in kind of redirecting our use of peaker plants and making sure we're doing everything we can to reduce our emissions and standing up for environmental justice communities," state Senator Adam Hinds said. "And it starts right here one permit at a time, one plant at a time, one community at a time." A "Zoom bomber," or many, interrupted testimonies at various points during the hearing. Berkshire Environmental Action Team has led the movement with a campaign "Put Peakers in the Past" demanding that the three peaking power plants located in Berkshire County revert to only renewable and clean alternatives. "The facility is considered to be a major source since it has the potential to emit greater than major source thresholds for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide, though actual emissions are much lower," Marc Simpson, MassDEP's section chief for the Western Regional Office Air Program, said.

Permit denied for proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline Southgate compressor station in Pittsylvania County — A state board denied an air permit Friday for the Mountain Valley Pipeline Southgate’s Lambert Compressor Station in Pittsylvania County. MVP spokesman Shawn Day expressed disappointment at the decision that came “despite the overwhelming evidence that our application met or exceeded all previously stated requirements.” MVP Southgate is evaluating the next steps it will take in response to the board’s decision, Day said. “The proposed facility would have been one of the most stringently controlled natural gas compressor stations in the United States,” Day said in a prepared statement. “The board’s decision is not supported by factual evidence.” The Virginia Air Pollution Control Board voted 5-2 to deny the permit, despite recommendation for approval from the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality during the board’s meeting that was held Thursday and Friday at the Olde Dominion Agricultural Complex in Chatham. The meeting to consider MVP Southgate’s permit application included public comment Thursday and Friday. The board denied the permit after members determined that the proposed project did not meet the fair treatment requirements of the Virginia Environmental Justice Act, would affect an environmental justice community and that the project’s site is not suitable under the act, legal precedent or state code. “Given these reasons, the board is varying from the recommendation of the department and denying the above referenced permit application,” Board Chair Kajal B. Kapur said in a board statement outlining its decision Friday. “Air board members fulfilled their responsibility to their fellow citizens,” NAACP President Anita Royston said in a prepared statement. “They listened to the voice of the people and made a decision that is in the best long-term interest of our community.” Elizabeth Jones, chair the county NAACP’s Environmental Justice Committee, said the board’s decision took courage. “Environmental and climate justice is a civil rights issue,” Jones said in a prepared statement. “We all depend on the physical environment and its bounty.” The board based its decision on several items, including public comments made at the meeting, staff presentations, a copy of the draft permit, a summary of and response to public comments and a copy of the permit engineering analysis.

Virginia board denies permit to extend fracking pipeline into North Carolina - Virginia’s air pollution governing body on Friday voted against approving an air quality permit for a proposed compressor station in the southern Virginia town of Chatham. On the second day of a two-day meeting, the Virginia Air Pollution Control Board voted 6-1 against the proposal. The proposal would have extended the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which carries fracked fuel, over the border into North Carolina. Environmental groups and local advocates have vocally opposed the project, citing environmental reviews indicating it would increase the levels of air pollutants such as carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide and formaldehyde. Sixteen members of Virginia’s House of Delegates had previously urged the board to deny the permit in October, citing environmental justice concerns. “Emissions from compressor stations contain toxic materials and any proposed project that would introduce new health hazards into a community should be very carefully considered,” they wrote. “A project’s potential impacts and contribution to cumulative impacts must be weighed against any arguments as to its necessity.” “No one should be asked to sacrifice their air, water, and health so that fossil fuel executives can make a quick buck in a world transitioning to clean energy. This is a win for Virginia communities who already live with elevated levels of fossil fuel pollution, and everyone everywhere who wants a livable future for their children,” Lynn Godfrey, community outreach coordinator for the Sierra Club’s Virginia chapter, said in a statement. “The writing is on the wall if the wealthy investors backing this project are willing to read it: the age of fossil fuels is over, it’s time to drop this polluting pipeline.”

MVP Southgate Developers Eye ‘Next Steps’ After Virginia DEQ Panel Denies Permit --A Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) panel late last week voted to deny an air permit for a compressor station needed to extend the Equitrans Midstream Partners LP-led Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) into North Carolina. Going against DEQ’s recommendation, the Virginia Air Pollution Control Board voted 6-1 to deny a draft minor new source review permit for the proposed Lambert Compressor Station (LCS), a key link to extend MVP — via the separate MVP Southgate project — 75 miles from Pittsylvania County, VA, into the North Carolina counties of Rockingham and Alamance.“We are disappointed that the majority of the board voted Friday to deny an air permit for the proposed MVP Southgate Lambert Compressor Station despite the overwhelming evidence that our application met or exceeded all previously stated requirements,” Shawn Day, MVP Southgate project spokesperson, told NGI. “The proposed facility would have been one of the most stringently controlled natural gas compressor stations in the United States.”Day stressed that the MVP Southgate decision has no bearing on the MVP project, which will transport 2 million Dth/d of natural gas from West Virginia to a Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line interconnect in southwestern Virginia. “MVP Southgate is a separate project, with its own regulatory processes, its own FERC docket number, its own customer,” he said. “Regardless of the Air Board’s decision, MVP will still deliver 2 million Dth/d to the Transco interconnect.”To be sure, MVP has faced setbacks of its own. However, MVP developers have also secured victories this year with FERC, which granted approvals tied to the pipeline’s construction and water-crossing method. MVP is a joint venture of Equitrans Midstream Partners LP, NextEra Capital Holdings Inc., Con Edison Transmission Inc., WGL Midstream and RGC Midstream LLC. Equitrans, which holds a 47.8% stake in the JV and will operate MVP, said in a recent investor presentation that the targeted full in-service date for the 300-mile pipeline is the summer of 2022. Equitrans Midstream owns 47.2% of the MVP Southgate project and plans to operate that pipeline as well, according to the project website. NextEra, Con Edison, WGL, RGC, and PSNC Energy also own MVP Southgate interests.

Chickahominy Pipeline hosts first 'warm body outreach' event to address questions about proposed 83-mile natural gas pipeline --Chickahominy Pipeline LLC held a highly anticipated virtual public meeting Thursday night, five months after residents in five central Virginia counties were surprised with land survey letters about the potential for a then-unknown pipeline project that may go through their properties. Led by company representatives, the virtual Zoom meeting — described by Chickahominy Project Outreach’s Beth Minear as the first “warm body outreach” — was the first public engagement event held by Chickahominy, which wants to build an 83-mile pipeline as part of a proposed project that involves a new power plant in Charles City County. The pipeline would run through the counties of Louisa, Hanover, Henrico, New Kent and Charles City and supply the natural gas for the plant. Chickahominy Pipeline is affiliated with a company called Chickahominy Power, which wants to build the plant. Both are subsidiaries of a Northern Virginia-based energy firm called Balico LLC. On Thursday night, company representatives said more than 40 people were participating in the Zoom meeting, and that they had received dozens of questions ahead of time. They also allowed viewers to submit questions throughout. Questions focused on such issues as lack of outreach, pipeline construction, the project’s private investors, and benefits to landowners, as well as the larger issue of what happens to the project if the State Corporation Commission decides that Chickahominy must be a regulated utility.

With natural gas supplies disrupted, citizens and businesses may be asked to reduce energy use this winter - The top official running New England's electricity grid says the region faces a "precarious" winter, in which consumers and businesses may be asked to limit their use of electricity and natural gas to help avert extended brownouts or worse. Gordon Van Welie, CEO of the Independent System Operator of New England, or ISO-NE, also says that the region will need more hydro-electricity from Canada to help the transition to a greener grid, whether it gets here via Central Maine Power's contentious energy corridor, or by other routes. With national and international supplies of the natural gas that fuels the majority of New England's power generation disrupted by the pandemic and other issues, Van Welie says requests for citizens and businesses to reduce energy usage, and even forced brownouts, are real possibilities this winter. “I think we're feeling more vulnerable,” Van Welie says. That despite predictions of a relatively mild winter. Extended cold snaps can happen any winter, Van Welie told reporters during a briefing Monday. He pointed to what happened in Texas during its extended outages early this year. “What happened in Texas changed everything. We've not rested well since the February event… we know that we are operating close to the edge here in the wintertime, in particular here in New England, we've known that for a long time,” Van Welie says. “I think that what Texas drove home for me is that with almost 15 million people living in this region need to understand is that we are in a precarious position particularly when we get into cold weather." New England's grid is more robust than in Texas, he adds. But the reliance on natural gas here can escalate quickly when supply chain issues coincide with a cold snap, because fuel dealers are required to deliver first to homes that heat with gas, and power generators are second in line. This season, ISO-NE is planning to issue energy supply advisories along with 21-day weather predictions and may call on the public to curtail use of both electricity and gas before a cold snap arrives, in order to avert a crisis. ISO system administrator Peter Brandien says the agency may issue advisories similar to summer-time heat-wave messaging that come from utilities. "Turn down your thermostat so that you're not using as much electricity or gas to heat your homes, don't do as much laundry, try to minimize the amount of cooking you're doing," Brandien says.

Energy Pros Mock Liz Warren's Complaints: 'It's Econ 101, Not Rocket Science' - Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s latest attempt to “turn up the heat” on the energy sector sparked a backlash from industry leaders who say the real problem comes from policies the Massachusetts’ Democrat has endorsed. In recent letters to natural gas producers, Warren blasted what she called their “corporate greed” and demanded an explanation for the record exports of natural gas at the same time prices are rising in the U.S. Warren wants the industry to respond to questions about “the extent to which these price increases are being driven by energy companies’ corporate greed and profiteering as they moved record amounts of U.S. gas out of the country,” she wrote. She got a response, but not the one she demanded. Leaders in the natural gas sector responded with a letter of their own, dismissing Warren’s comments as a diversion, one intended to distract consumers from the impact of the energy policies she’s championed. “This a misguided and headline-grabbing ploy,” says David E. Callahan, president of the Marcellus Shale Coalition (MSC). “If she knows anything about these highly complex energy markets, she must know what’s really going on here,” added Callahan, who co-authored a response letter alongside the leaders of the Gas & Oil Association of West Virginia (GO-WV), and Ohio Oil & Gas Association (OOGA). “It’s a commodity market, prices ebb and flow, and the market is responding to those signals.” Pennsylvania and West Virginia are among the top five natural gas producers in the nation, with the Keystone State alone producing one-fifth (21.1 percent) of the nation’s supply. (Texas edges out Pennsylvania for the top spot at 23.9 percent.) Warren is an aggressive supporter of the Green New Deal, which would drastically restrict the production of oil and natural gas. In her state of Massachusetts, policies blocking the expansion of natural gas pipelines have resulted in Russian LNG tankers in Boston Harbor bringing fuel to the Bay State.. “She has her constituents to represent and her political affiliation to support,” said Charlie Burd, executive director of GO-WV. “But to be perfectly honest, I just think those comments almost show a complete lack of understanding on how energy is explored for, produced, and transported in this country.” And those constituents are paying the price, according to Callahan.

Who’s to Blame for Higher Heating Costs This Winter? | NRDC --As winter approaches and retail prices for energy remain at multiyear highs, many people are looking at their utility bills with increasing concern. In its most recent Winter Fuels Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that U.S. households that rely on natural gas to stay warm (which is nearly half of them) can expect to spend 30 percent more for heat than they spent last winter, and as much as 50 percent more if their local temperatures this season are just 10 percent lower than average.Anticipating public frustration, oil and gas companies—and the politicians who take their cash—are trying to pin the blame on policies designed to promote renewable energy and reduce the extraction and consumption of fossil fuels. Don’t buy it.Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming—who’s received nearly $1.2 million in contributions from the oil and gas industry since taking office in 2007—issued a lengthy diatribe on the Senate floor blaming Biden and unspecified “environmentalists” for “shut[ting] down the abundant and affordable energy sources that fuel our economy” and for turning the United States from “a nation of energy wealth and energy dominance” into “a nation of energy weakness.” On the same day as Barrasso’s outburst, Representative Garret Graves of Louisiana called rising fossil fuel prices “an unforced error” by the administration and accused it of “trying to manipulate markets and force us in a direction of taking on things like solar and wind energy and other renewable sources.”Predicting the price of the natural gas that’s used to heat homes during cold weather—like predicting the weather itself—is a tricky business. There are few commodities as susceptible to price fluctuations as oil and gas. “The oil and gas extraction industry has been a boom-and-bust business since the world's first commercial oil well was drilled in 1859, and boom-bust cycles inevitably mean volatile prices,” Szybist says. One example is the recent dramatic swings in the price of methane, which has gone from a high of more than $20 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) to a low of less than $2 per mcf over the last 16 years, and which in just the past 18 months has shot up more than 300 percent, from $1.76 to $5.62. “This isn't an aberration,” Szybist adds. “It's the nature of the oil and gas market.”

Record December heat in the U.S. wilts natural gas prices - U.S. natural gas collapsed to the lowest level in more than four months as record-high temperatures kill heating demand ahead of winter. Futures for January delivery plunged 12% Monday, making the commodity the worst performer among U.S.-traded raw materials. Gas has already shed about 40% of its value since October, when traders betting on global fuel shortages drove prices to the highest level in seven years. Investors have since been forced to unwind some of those bets. While natural gas inventories in Europe and Asia remain strained, fueling higher prices there, unseasonably warm weather in the U.S. has allowed domestic stockpiles to rebound, deflating most of this year’s rally. In the last seven days alone, more than 4,000 daily records were set for higher-than-normal temperatures. December is expected be the third warmest going back to 1950 based on natural gas consumption, according to Bradley Harvey, a meteorologist at commercial forecaster Maxar. Temperature could reach 61 degrees Fahrenheit (16 Celsius) in New York and 81 degrees in Houston this week, according to the Weather Channel. In one sign of how supply fears have eased, the price premiums traders added to winter contracts have been almost completely erased. The so-called “widowmaker” spread between March and April futures, essentially a bet on how tight inventories will be at the end of the northern hemisphere’s winter, narrowed to as low as 3 cents after surging to $1.90 per million British thermal units in early October. “The widows of the market are those who went along expecting a really strong winter demand,” said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. “We’re just not seeing it right now.” Losses in the spring and summer futures have been much less severe. Gas for August delivery dropped 7% Monday and is down by 18% from a Nov. 26 high.

U.S. natgas futures drop to 4-1/2 month low on warmer-than-usual December outlook (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures shed over 11% on Monday to the lowest in more than 4-1/2 months, as forecasts for mild December temperatures soured the demand outlook. Front-month gas futures dropped 47.5 cents, or 11.5%, to settle at $3.657 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since July 15. "We're seeing a lot warmer than normal weather in the forecast here, and it looks like it might be sticking around towards the third week in December, which is not sending any bullish signals to the traders," Since Nov. 26, the front month has dropped over 30% in six sessions and has lost about $1.8 per mmBtu, in stark contrast to the seven-year high of nearly $6.5 per mmBtu hit two months ago. A lot of risk premium relating to a supply shortfall has been taken out of the market, DiDona added. Global gas prices have hit record highs in recent months as utilities around the world scrambled for LNG cargoes to replenish low stocks in Europe and meet surging demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. Tracking the global rally, U.S. futures jumped to a 12-year high in early October but have since pulled back because the United States has plenty of gas in storage and ample production for winter. "Some lower price levels would appear to lie ahead that could carry January futures to the $3.40-3.50 zone as a minimum if the (weather) forecasts stay mild this week." advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 96.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, down slightly from a monthly record of 96.5 bcfd in November. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 112.1 bcfd last week to 115.4 bcfd this week, but estimated a drop to 112.6 bcfd next week.

U.S. natgas edges up from four-month low on soaring European prices (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose from a four-month low on Tuesday following a 4% gain in U.S. crude futures and a 6% gain in European gas futures that was expected to keep U.S. liquefied natural gas exports at record highs. Traders noted that rise in U.S. gas prices came despite forecasts for milder U.S. weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures rose 5.1 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $3.708 per million British thermal units. On Monday, the contract plunged over 11% to its lowest close since July 15. That kept the front-month in oversold territory with a relative strength index (RSI) under 30 for a second day in a row for the first time since March. Crude futures rose almost 4% on Tuesday after rising almost 5% on Monday as concerns over the impact of the Omicron coronavirus variant on global fuel demand eased. Analysts have said European inventories were about 17% below normal for this time of year, compared with just 2% below normal in the United States. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 11.82 bcfd so far in December now that he sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana was producing LNG. That compares 11.39 bcfd in November and a monthly record of 11.48 bcfd in April. With gas prices around $31 per mmBtu in Europe and $34 in Asia, compared with about $4 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce.

UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas steady after bigger than expected storage draw (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held mostly steady on Thursday as a bigger than expected storage withdrawal and hiked forecasts for U.S. demand over the next two weeks offset a 3% decline in European gas prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities pulled 59 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 3. That was more than the 54-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 78 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average decline of 55 bcf. Last week's withdrawal cut stockpiles to 3.505 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 2.5% below the five-year average of 3.595 tcf for this time of year. "The period of this storage announcement covers the weekend after Thanksgiving, and gas usage over holiday weekends is always difficult to predict," Refinitiv analyst John Abeln said. "So while there was a small bullish signal, it is not enough to cause significant market movement." Looking ahead, many analysts said mild weather expected in coming weeks will allow U.S. utilities to leave enough gas in storage and cause stockpiles to reach above normal levels by mid-December. That would be the first time since April that storage would be above normal levels. Front-month gas futures fell 0.1 cents to settle at $3.814 per million British thermal units. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 96.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, down from a monthly record of 96.5 bcfd in November. With an unusual warming expected in mid-December, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 117.0 bcfd this week to 110.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday.

Natural Gas Futures Cap Week with Gain on Colder Weather Models - Natural gas futures started off Friday fairly steady as the market continued to monitor the weather data for any convincing evidence that colder temperatures could arrive before the calendar flips to 2022. Traders got just that with the midday models, which ultimately sent the January Nymex futures contract up 11.1 cents day/day to $3.925/MMBtu. February settled 10.5 cents higher at $3.889. Spot gas prices also rebounded across most of the United States. However, steep losses in California and the Rockies sent NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. down 4.0 cents to $3.720. With the weeks winding down to the holiday season, gas bulls have been waiting to pounce, looking for any indication of more sustained cold on the horizon that would drive up heating demand. There have been brief bouts of chilly air that have circulated across the country, but each one so far has failed to last more than a few days. Things could change around Christmastime, though. Weather models have been hinting for a few days that a significant shift in the pattern could send temperatures plunging. NatGasWeather said the overnight data added as many as nine heating degree days (HDD) to the 15-day outlook. Specifically, there were slightly cooler trends across the far northern United States. The midday Global Forecast System followed up with additional gains in projected demand, resulting in a 15-day outlook that added 20 HDDs between Thursday and Friday. “To our view, the weather data is likely still a little too bearish and risks adding a few more HDDs over the weekend,” NatGasWeather said. While the latest data suggested that more impressive cold is possible Dec. 25-31, the forecaster said there still is more for the data to prove if it’s to be expected. Also of note is that the chillier air would likely arrive in the middle of the Christmas and New Year holidays, a time of year when gas demand typically is low, thereby limiting its impact on the market. For now, the supply outlook continues to improve, at least on the surface. Though the balmy weather has done nothing to boost prices, it has resulted in a far more comfortable level of underground storage inventories ahead of the peak winter season. On Thursday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 59 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the week ending Dec. 3. The draw was in line with consensus and trimmed the deficit to the five-year average to 90 Bcf. Total working in gas in storage as of Dec. 3 stood at 3,505 Bcf, 356 Bcf below year-ago levels and 90 Bcf below the five-year average.

EIA forecasts that U.S. natural gas production will increase in 2022 -In the December 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that U.S. dry natural gas production will increase from 95.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in October 2021 to 97.5 Bcf/d by December 2022, an increase of 2.4 Bcf/d (2.5%). If realized, the December 2022 forecast production level will exceed the previous record of 97.2 Bcf/d, which was set in November 2019. The November 2019 record was set before COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, and before the COVID-19-associated declines in demand resulted in production declines to a low of 87.3 Bcf/d in May 2020. Dry natural gas production has generally risen since October 2020. Natural gas production remained above 92.0 Bcf/d in 2021, except in February, when a winter storm substantially affected oil and natural gas production in Texas.The forecast for natural gas production is influenced by expectations for natural gas production from newly drilled gas-directed wells, natural gas production from existing wells, and the amount ofassociated natural gas resulting from oil production. The number of natural gas-directed rigs—rigs drilling primarily in natural gas-bearing formations—decreased throughout 2019 and into 2020. In August 2020, the rig count was at its lowest monthly average since 1987 (the earliest year of available data). Since August 2020, the natural gas-directed rig count has generally increased, averaging 102 rigs in November 2021, but remains about 40% lower than the average monthly count in 2019. In both the Haynesville region and the Appalachian Basin, according to our Drilling Productivity Report, we expect dry natural gas production will set new highs this December as a result of both increased drilling activity and output per well. Associated natural gas production also increased because producers have been completing wells from their inventories of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells, which peaked in June 2020. Increases in both the number of natural gas-directed rigs and in associated natural gas production are expected to result in growing dry natural gas production in ourDecember STEO forecast.

What’s next for the Line 5 court battles? --Since mid-2019, Canadian pipeline company Enbridge and the state of Michigan have been locked in numerous court disputes about the fate of the controversial Line 5 pipeline that has transported oil under the environmentally sensitive Straits of Mackinac since 1953. Until last week, the first and primary legal battle had been on pause since January, as a federal court deliberated and ultimately ruled against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s attempt to keep her shutdown lawsuit against Enbridge in state court. Options are whittling down for the governor and Attorney General Dana Nessel, who both ran on platform promises to decommission Line 5. Essentially, just one option for the Democrats remains, aside from smaller lawsuits and bold, seemingly unlikely actions from a federal regulatory agency and/or President Joe Biden. In an interview with Attorney General Dana Nessel last week, the Advance asked about the state’s new strategy for shutting down Line 5, how things will now proceed in the court system and what certain court decisions or slowdowns might mean for the fate of the pipelines. “I will say that the governor remains just as committed now as she’s ever been to shutting down Line 5 and to averting what could be, obviously, a cataclysmic oil spill in the Great Lakes. But, from a strategy standpoint, it just made sense to pursue one [legal] track,” Nessel said Wednesday.  

Increasing investment in natural gas is a mistake, Sierra Club Wisconsin official warns - After the Biden administration announced plans last month to limit methane emissions, an official with the Sierra Club Wisconsin said it made "no sense" to tinker with gas regulations because much more dramatic changes are needed.Laura Lane, chair of Sierra Club Wisconsin, said the idea that utilities need more investment in gas power as a bridge from coal to renewable energy was a "myth.""It makes no sense to be dumping millions of dollars to build the infrastructure, to be dealing with more strict regulations," Lane said Thursday on WPR’s "The Morning Show." "We need to go with renewables and related technologies that are available."She agreed that strict regulations can help keep people safer because, "every part of getting gas — extraction, the processing, the shipping — it’s harmful."The Sierra Club Wisconsin with its Beyond Gas initiative lists why gas hurts the environment. The reasons include the high levels of carbon dioxide emissions that come from burning gas, air pollution and how gas plants disproportionately affect communities of color.Bill Skewes is the executive director for the Wisconsin Utilities Association, a lobbying group for the state’s gas and electric utilities. He told "The Morning Show" there is a needed but "sometimes uncomfortable tension" between his industry and environmental activists."That’s not necessarily a bad thing," he said. "But it does tend to move the needle of public policy faster than all the stakeholders at the table may want to go sometimes." Skewes said natural gas has about half of the greenhouse gas emissions than the coal units that utilities are trying to replace."That’s pretty big," he said, adding that utilities are "committed to a goal of being carbon neutral by 2050 — and some are even accelerating that."

Can U.S. phase out natural gas? Lessons from the Southeast - Even with the Biden administration’s call for the power sector to decarbonize, many Southeastern utilities plan to add large amounts of natural gas to their grids, a move they say is necessary to support renewable projects in the queue. The plans illustrate the challenge facing some U.S. regions as they aim to decarbonize: How can utilities move away from fossil fuels when they say natural gas is needed to back up renewables? Can gas lower emissions in the long run? Is it true that policies such as cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline have raised gas prices? Will a reduction in gas lead to less grid reliability? Take the case of Atlanta-based Southern Co., which recently announced plans to shutter roughly half of its coal fleet, following guidelines from federal wastewater regulations for power plants (Energywire, Nov. 5). Alabama’s electricity powerhouse this fall told the state Public Service Commission it wanted to buy a 750-megawatt natural gas plant in Calhoun County, arguing that the generation is necessary to replace some of the coal that will be removed from the grid at the end of 2023. Absent that, what’s known as Barry Unit 5 will have to keep running to ensure system reliability, the company said in an Oct. 28 filing. Running that inefficient coal unit is more costly, not to mention produces higher emissions, the document said. “Alabama Power has a capacity need in the very near term, especially in 2023,” John Kelley, the company’s forecasting and resource planning director, said in written testimony to the PSC. “Calhoun can help meet this need if the resource is acquired by the target date in late 2022.” Environmental advocates are skeptical, however, that the electric company needs the replacement megawatts at all. If it does, “then Alabama Power should not be looking to replace it with another fossil fuel,” said Christina Andreen Tidwell, a senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center. “Alabama Power seems to be doubling down on gas at a time where utilities should be pursuing lower-cost and less-risky renewable energy and energy efficiency options,” said Tidwell. SELC is representing Energy Alabama and the Greater Birmingham Alliance to Stop Pollution, or GASP, in this case. Similarly, with the Tennessee Valley Authority, critics frequently call out the federal agency for not cutting carbon emissions more aggressively, especially as President Biden has made fighting climate change a central part of his administration. Biden has called for decarbonizing the power sector by 2035.

Spire’s pipeline receives temporary reprieve to run until regulators decide its fate - Spire’s 2-year-old natural gas pipeline serving the St. Louis region will be allowed to continue running until federal regulators make a long-term decision about the project’s future, as they were ordered to do in a June court ruling that revoked the line’s approval.The 65-mile Spire STL Pipeline was granted an extension of a temporary operating permit Friday by leaders of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The extension is set to last as long as it takes for the agency to reach its court-ordered conclusion on the project. The move should quell a recent stretch of strong rhetoric and public anxiety surrounding Spire’s information campaign warning of potential winter gas outages, given the pipeline’s uncertain future.Comments from the St. Louis-based gas utility have drawn widespreadaccusations of “fearmongering” from regulatory officials at FERC and the Missouri Public Service Commission, as well as from legal opponents at the Environmental Defense Fund, which launched the lawsuit against the pipeline project. FERC originally granted approval of the pipeline through a process that a unanimous panel of judges later blasted for multiple flaws. The judges cited an “ostrich-like approach,” including a failure to adequately demonstrate a need for the project. That decision, handed down over the summer, sent the matter back to FERC to chart a solution for the line and those it affects, such as Spire customers.

BP Gains MiQ Natural Gas Certification for Haynesville Wells in Texas - BP plc has become the latest major to differentiate its natural gas through MiQ, with the U.S. onshore business achieving a top grade for the methane emissions performance of some wells in the Haynesville Shale. bp MiQ’s independently audited certification system reviewed emissions in the Haynesville that are managed by BP’s Lower 48 arm BPX Energy Inc. MiQ helps operators differentiate themselves through methane-emissions performance. MiQ currently certifies about 10 Bcf/d, or around 2.5% of the global gas market and 11% of U.S. gas production. “Tackling methane emissions is vital for natural gas to play its fullest role in the energy transition,” said BPX’s Faye Gerard, vice president of Low Carbon and Sustainability. “We’re in action to reduce these emissions from our operations. MiQ’s certification helps validate the steps we’re taking and makes us even more confident we’re providing the energy the world needs with fewer emissions.” Possible Permian, Eagle Ford Certification BPX’s South Haynesville Facility in Texas produces about 0.2 Bcf/d. The 70 well sites were certified using the MiQ Standard, which grades a facility’s production from “A” to “F” based on its methane emissions. An A grade represents methane intensity of less than 0.05%, while F represents up to 2%. Third-party auditor GHD independently verified and awarded the top grade to the BPX facility. BPX now is “assessing further certification opportunities across its U.S. onshore operated portfolio” in the Haynesville, as well as the Eagle Ford Shale and Permian Basin. BPX said it provides certification data using a combination of advanced methane-monitoring technologies that include optical gas imaging cameras. The cameras are mounted to drones and fixed-wing aircraft, as well as ground-based cameras. BPX also uses data from field-measurement devices to quantify methane emissions from targeted sources. For each MMBtu of certified gas, MiQ is providing one certificate from the 70 wells that make up BPX’s South Haynesville Facility. The verifications are delivered to certified gas buyers and traders through BP’s account at the MiQ Digital Registry.

U.S. liquefied natural gas export capacity will be world’s largest by end of 2022 - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity has grown rapidly since the Lower 48 states first began exporting LNG in February 2016. In 2020, the United States became the world’s third-largest LNG exporter, behind Australia and Qatar. Once the new LNG liquefaction units, called trains, at Sabine Pass and Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana are placed in service by the end of 2022, the United States will have the world’s largest LNG export capacity.The following new LNG export capacity additions will come online by the end of 2022, according to announced project plans:

• Train 6 at the Sabine Pass LNG export facility. Train 6 will add up to 0.76 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of peak export capacity. Train 6 began producing LNG in late November; the first export cargo from this train is expected to be shipped before the end of 2021.
• Calcasieu Pass LNG. This new export facility has 18 liquefaction trains with a combined peak capacity of 12 million metric tons per annum (1.6 Bcf/d). Commissioning activities at Calcasieu Pass LNG started in November 2021; the first LNG production is expected before the end of this year. All liquefaction trains are expected to be operational by the end of 2022.

The nameplate, or nominal, capacity of a liquefaction facility specifies the amount of LNG produced in a calendar year under normal operating conditions, based on the engineering design of a facility. Peak LNG production capacity is the amount of LNG produced under optimal operating conditions, including modifications to production processes that increase operational efficiency.In October 2021, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved requests to increase authorized LNG production at the Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG terminals by a combined 261 billion cubic feet per year (0.7 Bcf/d). The terminals will achieve these increases by optimizing operations, including production uprates and modifications to maintenance.As of November 2021, we estimate that U.S. LNG nominal liquefaction capacity was 9.5 Bcf/d and peak capacity was 11.6 Bcf/d. This peak capacity includes uprates to LNG production capacity at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi.By the end of 2022, U.S. nominal capacity is expected to increase to 11.4 Bcf/d, and peak capacity will increase to 13.9 Bcf/d, exceeding capacities of the two largest LNG exporters, Australia (which has an estimated peak LNG production capacity of 11.4 Bcf/d) and Qatar (peak capacity of 10.4 Bcf/d). In 2024, when construction on Golden Pass LNG—the eighth U.S. LNG export facility—is completed and the facility begins operations, U.S. LNG peak export capacity will further increase to an estimated 16.3 Bcf/d.The latest information on the status of U.S. liquefaction facilities, including expected online dates and capacities, is available in our database of U.S. LNG export facilities.

BP oil spill fund: $103m to projects in 3 Gulf states - Alabama, Florida and Mississippi are receiving more than $103 million in BP oil spill settlement money for new and continued coastal projects. “These projects, combined with existing investments, continue to advance our goal of protecting and restoring species and habitats impacted by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill,” The 11 new projects and two extensions from the foundation's Gulf Environmental Benefit Fund bring its total allocations across the five Gulf states to $1.6 billion, a news release said. Alabama is getting more than $43 million for four new projects, the foundation said. Florida is getting nearly $33 million for one new project. The remaining $27 million will support six new projects and continue two others in Mississippi. The Gulf Environmental Benefit Fund received $2.5 billion in settlement money from criminal charges against BP and its codefendants. The fund is for work to fix damage and reduce risks of future damage to natural resources affected by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Three of the new projects in Alabama are designed to stabilize eroding shorelines and restore coastal marsh in Mobile County and on the north side of Dauphin Island. Previous grants covered engineering, design and permitting for those projects. The fourth grant will pay for engineering and design of beach and dune restoration on Dauphin Island's west end. Florida plans to use its award to acquire and manage about 32,000 acres (13,000 hectares) of wetland and floodplain habitat in the Apalachicola watershed. That's aimed at ensuring sufficient freshwater and nutrient flow to Apalachicola Bay and the Gulf of Mexico to support oysters and marine fishes. Mississippi's new projects will expand and plan for future enhancements of artificial reefs across the Mississippi Sound and restore and protect vulnerable coastal habitats along the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Envisioning the Effects of Big Oil and Gas Along the Texas Coast -All along the nearly 400-mile stretch of Texas’ Gulf Coast, nearly a dozen oil and gas export terminals are slated to come online within the next decade. In “The Export Boom,” reporter Amal Ahmed writes how this expansion of the United States’ oil and gas export industry has been a decade in the making. For this investigation, photographers Ivan Armando Flores and Jordan Vonderhaar worked to create a more comprehensive understanding of the extent to which liquified natural gas facilities impact their environments and our climate. Employing the use of long-exposure photography and light painting with the aid of a drone, they were able to impose the specter of industrialization on these pristine coastal environments. These images create an ahistorical record of the land and allow our readers to visualize clearly the impact and scale these facilities will have on the land.

Baker Reports Oil, Natural Gas Drilling Increases as Latest US Tally Rises - A result of gains in both oil and natural gas-directed drilling, the combined U.S. rig count climbed seven units to 576 for the week ended Friday (Dec. 10), according to updated figures from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). shale count Four oil-directed rigs and three natural gas-directed units were added in the United States for the week, putting the overall domestic tally 238 units ahead of its year-earlier total, according to the BKR numbers, which are partly based on data from Enverus. Six U.S. rigs were added on land, along with one in the Gulf of Mexico. Eight horizontal rigs were added, partially offset by a one-rig decline in vertical units. The Canadian rig count fell three units to 177 for the week, up 66 rigs year/year. The three-rig net decline there was focused entirely in the oil patch. Broken down by major region, the Permian Basin led with an additional three rigs on the week, with the Cana Woodford and Eagle Ford Shale each adding two rigs. The Granite Wash and Utica Shale each added a rig, while the Arkoma Woodford and Barnett Shale each saw one rig exit for the period. In the state-by-state breakdown, New Mexico and Oklahoma each posted net increases of two rigs, while Louisiana, Ohio, Texas, Utah and West Virginia each added one rig overall. Alaska and Pennsylvania each dropped one rig week/week, according to the BKR data.

Fracking fears in Texas: Families fight natural gas fracking near day care center, homes amid health worries from drilling - — At a playground outside a North Texas day care center, giggling preschoolers chase each other into a playhouse. Toddlers scoot by on tricycles. A boy cries as a teacher helps him negotiate over a toy. Uphill from the playground, peeking between trees, Total Energies is pumping for natural gas. The French energy giant wants to drill three new wells on the property next to Mother’s Heart Learning Center, which serves mainly Black and Latino children. The three wells and two existing ones would lie about 600 feet from where the children planted a garden of sunflowers. For families of the children and for others nearby, it’s a prospect fraught with fear and anxiety. Living near drilling sites has been linked to health risks, especially to children, ranging from asthma to neurological and developmental disorders. While some states are requiring energy companies to drill farther from day care centers, schools and homes, Texas has made it exceedingly difficult for local governments to fight back. The affected areas also include communities near related infrastructure — compressor stations, for example, which push gas through pipelines and emit toxic fumes, and export facilities, where gas is cooled before being shipped overseas. “I’m trying to protect my little one,” said Guerda Philemond, whose 2-year-old Olivia Grace Charles attends the day care center in Arlington. “There’s a lot of land, empty space they can drill. It doesn’t have to be in the back yard of a day care.” Total declined an interview request. In a written statement, the company said it has operated near Mother’s Heart for more than a decade without any safety concerns expressed by the city of Arlington.

Permian Basin winter gas market faces pressure on maintenance, supply growth - Ongoing pipeline maintenance on El Paso Natural Gas, now extended indefinitely, promises to weigh on Permian Basin gas prices this winter as it limits egress capacity from West Texas. The continuing maintenance could also magnify emerging supply pressure in the Permian that has come amid a recent surge in production and drilling activity there. In a critical notice published Nov. 30, El Paso told shippers that it does not yet have a definitive timeline for returning its Line 2000 back to full commercial service. The pipeline’s westbound mainline, a critical transmission corridor for Permian Basin gas flowing into Southern California, is now expected to remain out of service for several months, El Paso said. The critical notice updates El Paso’s original force majeure declaration posted Aug. 15 when the pipeline failure on Line 2000 first occurred near Coolidge, Arizona. El Paso advised that repair work and diagnostic inspections continue and that the incident remains under investigation by the NTSB. SoCal, West Texas impacts Since its announcement in August, the force majeure and subsequent maintenance on El Paso has mostly affected the southern California gas market by limiting its access to Permian Basin supply. Following the announcement of El Paso’s Line 2000 maintenance in August, westbound flows from the Permian immediately dropped by some 500 to 600 MMcf/d in response to the new capacity restrictions. In part, the force majeure helped to fuel a spectacular rise winter gas prices at the SoCal Gas city-gate to over $13/MMBtu as traders became increasingly concerned over the restrictions on West Texas supply. Following a subsequent move by the California Public Utilities Commission, though, temporarily expanding the region’s storage capacity at Aliso Canyon, the SoCal Gas market has since cooled. In the Permian Basin, meanwhile, ample transmission capacity to the Texas Gulf Coast, the US Midcontinent and to Mexico allowed production and prices in West Texas to remain relatively unscathed by the reduction in westbound capacity on El Paso. More recently though, an uptick in production and drilling activity in the Permian has raised doubts over the basin’s capacity to simply absorb more supply without no, or only limited, impact on prices.

Oil traders take a long-shot bet on a possible U.S. oil export ban --Oil traders are scooping up options contracts that would pay out if U.S. crude futures plummet against international benchmark Brent, a signal that some believe the Biden administration could intervene in the market again to bring down oil prices. Some traders have bet on the small chance that West Texas Intermediate’s discount to Brent surges past $10 a barrel next year. The last time the spread traded near $10 was in 2018 and 2019 when severe pipeline constraints trapped barrels in the Permian Basin - the largest oilfield in the country. The spread was trading around $3.60 a barrel Tuesday. The oil market has been volatile as top consuming nations came together in an unprecedented move last month to release crude from their emergency reserves and bring down energy costs. The Biden Administration’s ongoing focus on lowering gasoline prices has now prompted some traders to purchase some contracts that could pay out just in case they takes further steps, such as limiting or pausing crude exports. Even if the spread between the benchmark contracts - a key indicator for pricing imports and exports - doesn’t widen all the way to $10, the options could still pay out marginally. The options also act as protection for physical traders who could risk losing millions of dollars on a cargo if the U.S. suddenly bans exports. While small in volume, the option trades have popped up consistently over the past week. Since last Tuesday, the equivalent of 11.25 million barrels have changed hands, with 10.1 million barrels of brand new positions being opened, betting on the chance that the premium of Brent to West Texas Intermediate crude futures surges past $10 a barrel next year. Most traders believe an outright ban on U.S. exports is unlikely, making the trades akin to buying a lottery ticket. A halt in exports would trap more oil in the U.S. and pressure domestic prices as local refiners are not designed to process the type of light crude produced at home efficiently.

Exxon Mobil Aims for Net-Zero Emissions in Permian Basin - NYTimes— Exxon Mobil said on Monday that it aimed to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from its operations in oil and gas fields in West Texas and New Mexico by 2030.The announcement is part of Exxon’s previously stated plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across its business, as activists and some investors pressure the oil industry to do more to fight climate change. But Exxon’s goal does not include offsetting emissions from its customers, such as car and truck owners and airlines. Exxon, the nation’s largest oil company, said it would reach net-zero emissions in the Permian Basin, which straddles the two Southwestern states, by electrifying its operations, improving its ability to detect and capture methane gas and eliminating the routine burning of waste gas emitted from oil wells. The company said it might also employ “nature-based solutions,” which could include planting trees.

ExxonMobil plans to end routine flaring, cut all emissions in Permian Basin by 2030 - Global energy giant ExxonMobil vowed to completely cut its greenhouse gas emissions from oil and gas operations in the Permian Basin by 2030. The company also pledged to end routine flaring by the end of 2022, electrify operations in New Mexico and Texas and increase monitoring for methane releases while upgrading equipment to avoid emissions. Exxon’s plans in the Permian were part of company-wide commitment to reduce emissions intensity, referring to the amount of emissions per facility, by 40 to 50 percent by 2030, compared with 2016 levels. More: Multi-million-dollar oil and gas deals in the Permian Basin mark recovery from COVID-19 At the end of 2021’s third quarter, Exxon reported it produced 530,000 barrels of oil per day in the Permian, accounting for 40 percent of the company’s U.S. production. Company officials said that as fuel demand grows and production increases, so too would greenhouse gas mitigation. Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said the Nov. 6 announcement was part of a company-wide strategy to reduce the oil and gas leader’s impact on climate change. “Our groundbreaking plans to reach net zero for Permian Basin operations further demonstrate our commitment and support of society’s ambitions for a lower-emissions future,” Woods said. “We have plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity across our businesses by deploying the capabilities and technical strengths that are foundational to ExxonMobil.” Electrification of ExxonMobil’s facilities in the Permian – one of the nation’s most active oilfields spanning southeast New Mexico and West Texas – would use “low-carbon power,” read a company news release, that could include renewable energy like wind and solar power. The company also said it could use hydrogen power for its facilities, or natural gas using carbon capture and storage technologies.

Locked out ExxonMobil workers make noise at world petroleum conference -World and oil industry leaders have gathered for the World Petroleum Congress in Houston for discussions that could shape the future of global energy, and Southeast Texas is making sure it has its own kind of representation outside the security lines around the George R. Brown Convention Center.For almost 90 years, the WPC periodically has been convening across the world to host debates and dialogue about oil and gas and returned to the United States on Sunday for the first time in more than 30 years.When attendees entered into the convention center Monday, they also heard opinions from United Steelworkers Union representatives and workers from the ExxonMobil Beaumont refinery who were gathered around the meeting place.The USW and other unions gathered in solidarity to protest, drawing attention to the more than eight-month-old lock out of ExxonMobil workers at the company’s refinery and lube complex in Beaumont.USW District 13 Representative Bryan Gross said the group of workers were trying to send a message to the company’s CEO, Darren Woods, hoping he might direct the company back to the negotiating table.“There is no reason to continue hurting these families with the lockout, especially with the holidays coming up,” Gross said. “We can continue bargaining outside of that, and we need to get our people back to work. It’s hurting families and the local economy.”

WPC 2021: ConocoPhillips CEO says U.S. government holds back oil supply --In the debate over why U.S. oil producers haven’t added additional supply, the boss of ConocoPhillips lays the blame squarely with the government. An increasingly bitter war of words has developed between the Biden administration, which has called for more production to alleviate high energy prices, and an U.S. oil and gas sector that has kept output relatively flat while criticizing White House regulatory moves. “There’s no fast way to return supply,” ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance said Tuesday in a Bloomberg Television interview from the World Petroleum Congress in Houston. “But if you get a stable, transparent system here in the U.S., and manage through the uncertainties, then we will invest to grow, not at the expense of returns, but there is some growth that can come out of U.S.” President Joe Biden campaigned on a pledge to ban new fracking on federal lands, and more recently his administration has focused on clamping down on the industry’s emissions of methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. The House Science Committee last week requested that Houston-based ConocoPhillips and none other leading U.S. producers share data on methane leaks. Lance said that’s another example of unnecessary regulatory burden, and that in his view the industry is already making strides in self-regulating when it comes to methane.

Top US Shale CEO "Worried" Years Of Underinvestment Could Boost Oil Over $100 -After half a decade of U.S. oil drillers underinvesting in projects and returning money to shareholders, it could take years to resume pre-pandemic production levels that could further roil oil markets for years to come. "I'm worried that it may get too high, above $100 (per barrel)," according to Scott Sheffield, CEO of shale explorer Pioneer Natural Resources Co., who was speaking to Reuters in an interview at the Petroleum Congress in Houston on Tuesday. "I hope it stabilizes between an $80 to $100 range over the next several years. We need stability in the oil markets," he said. Sheffield said U.S. oil production would only increase by 3% annually because oil companies return cash to shareholders rather than boost CAPEX. In that case, he added oil prices would continue to bid more than $70 a barrel for the foreseeable future. He was mind-boggled last month when the Biden administration requested OPEC to increase crude output to suppress prices, overlooking U.S. oil/gas companies. "The Biden administration called up OPEC to increase production and didn't ask the U.S. to do it," he said. Sheffield's outlook differs drastically from the Biden administration, desperately trying to squash oil prices amid plunging poll numbers due to high inflation ahead of the midterms.

U.S. cuts oil demand, price forecasts on Omicron concerns --The Biden administration’s efforts to lower energy costs may have gotten unexpected help from the latest coronavirus variant. As a result of travel restrictions following the outbreak of the omicron variant of Covid-19, the Energy Information Administration cut its projections for both global benchmark Brent and U.S. crude futures by nearly $2 a barrel for 2022, according to the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The agency also lowered its outlook for consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels in the fourth quarter and first quarter while raising its forecast for oil output from OPEC+ and the U.S. The latest forecast comes as the Biden Administration continues to focus on lowering gasoline prices and just after decision from OPEC and its allies to proceed with a scheduled oil-production hike. The producer group left the door open to changing the plan on short notice due to the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the omicron variant of Covid-19 on oil demand. Meanwhile, the U.S. pushed ahead with its planned release of strategic oil in an exchange program for which bids were closed Monday. The EIA softened its outlook on petroleum and liquid fuels demand by over half a million barrels a day to 99.3 million from its previous forecast for the first quarter. It revised its demand estimate lower for the current quarter as well on rising Covid-19 cases in the last month that prompted renewed mobility restrictions in Austria, Ireland and the Netherlands, and several other guidelines in the rest of Europe. Globally, output is set to average 100.93 million barrels a day in 2022, leaving the market in a surplus for the year. The agency now expects Brent to average $70.05 a barrel next year. Its projections for West Texas Intermediate were lowered to $66.42 a barrel, the report said. Meanwhile, the EIA lowered slightly its crude oil production forecast next year to 11.8 million barrels a day while adjusting it slightly higher for 2021.

PRC rejects PNM/Avangrid merger The New Mexico Public Regulation Commission essentially denied the merger between Avangrid and Public Service Company of New Mexico on Wednesday.. The commissioners voted unanimously on Wednesday to reject the stipulated agreement, following a recommendation from the PRC hearing examiner that the potential risks to customers outweigh the benefits. “This whole deal to me kind of boils down to promises versus actual performance,” Commission Chairman Stephen Fischmann said, highlighting Avangrid’s past performance in New England where it owns several utilities and has faced more than $60 million in fines from regulators. PNM and Avangrid promoted the merger as an opportunity to transition faster away from fossil fuels through access to Avangrid’s better credit ratings as well as benefits associated with Avangrid’s scale. Avangrid’s large size could lead to lower costs for equipment because the company would be able to buy in bulk. But several commissioners said the merger is not the way to approach the transition. The commissioners expressed concerns that the merger could lead to higher rates for customers and decreased reliability. While the rate increases would require approval from the commission, the PRC had concerns that if the merger was approved PNM could favor Avangrid resources during the procurement process, which could lead to higher rates.

Biden tribal policy would shake up energy law on public lands - New initiatives from the Biden administration to expand the influence of Indigenous tribes could bolster legal opposition to energy projects on public lands. In the first Tribal Nations Summit since 2016, President Biden this month committed to, among other things, pursue more collaborative public lands management strategies with tribes and incorporate traditional ecological knowledge into federal agencies’ scientific analysis of projects. "We’re going to make some substantial changes in Indian Country," Biden said during the virtual event. The same day, the government released a memorandum of understanding signed by 17 federal agencies agreeing to increase consultation and collaboration, in recognition of existing treaty obligations between the United States and tribal nations. The announcements drew praise from Indian and environmental law experts, who saw the change as an important step for the Biden administration in improving relations between sovereign tribes and the United States. The agreement, signed by agencies such as EPA and the Interior and Agriculture departments, is not legally binding, so it cannot by itself serve as the basis of a legal challenge to federal approval of energy projects on treaty lands. But the agreement could help tribes hold the federal government legally accountable to its commitments to treat tribes as an equal partner in energy development on public lands. The Biden administration’s pronouncements "may be relevant if there is litigation down the road, even if the tribe wouldn’t be able to just say, ‘You violated this [memorandum of understanding], and therefore, we’re suing you, and we win,’"

Biden Administration Is ‘Rubber Stamping’ Oil and Gas Permits on Public Land, Activists Say - The Biden administration came under fire last month for overseeing the largest offshore oil and gas leasing sale in U.S. history. Now, a new report suggests this wasn’t an isolated incident. The analysis from Public Citizen reveals that the new administration has issued more permits for oil and gasdrilling on public lands per month than the Trump administration did in its first three years, as Yahoo News reported. “When it comes to climate change policy, President Biden is saying the right things. But we need more than just promises,” study author Alan Zibel told The Independent.Public Citizen looked at federal public lands drilling permit data and found that the government had approved an average of 336 permits per month in 2021. Excluding January 2021, when former President Donald Trumpremained in office for most of the month, that’s 333 permits per month while President Joe Biden was in charge. The average is a more than 35 percent increase from when Trump took office in 2017 but is down by more than 25 percent from the average for 2020. Biden promised in his campaign to ban new oil and gas leasing in public lands and waters and issued a moratorium on the practice, but this was struck down by a judge in June of 2021. However, the permits covered in the new analysis are not new sales but rather permit approvals for previous sales, Yahoo News pointed out. “Certainly, the deck is stacked against the Biden administration when it comes to leases that have been sold in the past,” Jesse Prentice-Dunn, policy director at the Center for Western Priorities, told Yahoo News. “However, it doesn't have to be a complete rubber stamp. The administration can ask companies to go back to the drawing board if they haven't done a full environmental analysis of what the impacts could be.”Prentice-Dunn noted that the Biden administration had approved 98 percent of the permits it had reviewed through the end of September, even more than the Trump administration’s 2020 approval rate of 94 percent.“If 98 percent approval isn’t a rubber stamp, I don’t know what is,” Prentice-Dunn said.

Biden continues where Trump left off with oil drilling permits: report - President Joe Biden is approving more oil and gas drilling permits each month than Donald Trump did during the first three years in the White House, according to new research. Among President Biden’s “Day One” campaign promises was not only to reverse the environmental damage wreaked by the previous administration but make progress on an ambitious agenda that would tackle the climate crisis and rampant pollution. Part of Mr Biden’s pledge was to conserve “America’s natural treasures” by permanently protecting areas impacted by President Trump’s “fire sale” along with “banning new oil and gas leasing on public lands and waters”. However analysis of federal data, published on Monday by progressive think tank Public Citizen, showed that excluding January 2021 – when Mr Trump remained in office until the 20th – the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) approved an average of roughly 333 drilling permits per month. This number is more than 35 per cent higher than when Mr Trump took office in 2017. Under the Biden administration, monthly permit approvals by BLM, the federal agency which leases public lands to oil and gas corporations, peaked at 652 in April. They have been below 2020 levels since the summer after falling under 300 in July. Mr Biden heralded America’s climate progress at the Cop26 summit in Glasgow last month. He underlined the importance of his clean energy agenda as the US suffers an ever-worsening cycle of disasters linked to global heating driven by the burning of fossil fuels. “We’ll demonstrate to the world the United States is not only back at the table but hopefully leading by the power of our example,” Mr Biden said in Glasgow. Days after Cop26 ended, the Biden administration auctioned off drilling permits to the fossil fuel industry across 1.7m acres in the Gulf of Mexico. “When it comes to climate change policy, President Biden is saying the right things. But we need more than just promises,” said Alan Zibel, the new study’s author. Emissions from burning and extracting fossil fuels from public lands and waters account for about 25 per cent of domestic carbon emissions, according to the US Geological Survey. Earthjustice contends that government officials violated federal law by relying on a flawed and out-of-date environmental analysis from 2017, while ignoring new information about the severity of the climate crisis. “The administration is legally obligated to evaluate this information before taking any action,” the environmental law organisation said in a statement last month. Fossil fuel corporations including Shell, BP, Chevron and ExxonMobil were able to bid in the November lease sale which could keep them actively pumping oil in the Gulf for many years.

Biden Promised to Stop Oil Drilling on Public Lands. Is His Failure to Do So a Betrayal or a Smart Political Move? - As a candidate, President Joe Biden never embraced the strict curbs on fossil fuel development that progressives sought, like a ban on fracking. But his climate plan included a clear pledge to halt any further advance of the oil and gas industry on federal lands or offshore.“Banning new oil and gas permitting on public lands and waters” and “modifying royalties to account for climate costs” were two steps Biden said he would take if elected, to help put the nation on track to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Environmentalists were enthusiastic about these proposals because Biden wouldn’t need Congressional approval; the president could just invoke the Department of Interior’s broad authority to manage federal lands. So green groups said they were deeply disappointed when Interior Secretary Deb Haaland released the roadmap for the future of federal oil and gas leasing the day after Thanksgiving. The document proposed little change beyond raising the fees that the industry must pay to extract resources on public lands and requiring companies to increase their insurance coverage—proposals already under consideration in Congress, although opposed by industry.“Our biggest criticism is simply that it basically ignores the elephant in the room, which is climate change,” said Joshua Axelrod, senior advocate for the Natural Resources Defense Council’s nature program. He said the reforms proposed are indeed necessary—royalty rates have not changed since the 1920s—but they don’t go nearly far enough, at a time when the president says he wants every government agency to be acting to slash carbon emissions. “We’re at a critical juncture on climate,” said Axelrod. “At the very least, it would have been nice to see some recognition of that, even if they didn’t propose any definite policy changes. The lack of it is a major disappointment.” But some observers argue that from a climate perspective, the administration had little to gain and a lot to lose politically by going forward with a ban on new federal leasing at this time. Oil and gas from federal lands and offshore has become a smaller portion of U.S. production over the last 18 years, while drilling on private land has soared. A ban on new leasing would not make a significant dent in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, they say, but it would stir up a political firestorm that would hurt Biden and other Democrats, especially in two swing states with substantial federal oil and gas leasing, New Mexico and Colorado.

Biden’s oil reserve sale attracts foreign bidders --The Biden administration’s efforts to lower energy costs takes a step forward Monday, with bids due for the first 32 million barrels of crude planned for release from federal stockpiles. Bids for the exchange offer, which is the first part of government’s 50 million-barrel release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, were due at 10 a.m C.T., the Department of Energy said when it first announced the release last month. Although winning bids won’t be announced until Dec. 14, at least two international oil refiners have expressed interested in the swap, according to people familiar with the matter. The release is part of the Biden Administration’s effort to lower energy costs and tackle surging gasoline prices, which touched a seven-year high last month. Crude futures have dropped about 20% since late October, when the U.S. indicated it was considering a variety of tools to bring down fuel prices. The reserve is typically tapped when natural disasters disrupt the flow of oil. U.S. refiners and international oil companies are expected to make up the majority of the participants. Most of the oil being released is high in sulfur and costs more to refine because it requires hydrogen produced from natural gas to run units to strip it of sulfur. U.S. oil processors particularly in Texas, America’s refining hub, are subject to year-end taxes on their oil stocks and may limit appetite there to add barrels to storage. “Taxes on U.S. inventories may discourage refiners from adding inventories in December,” said Chris Barber, principal analyst at consultant ESAI. “China and India do process sour crude and that is what many of their refineries are configured to do. It’s just more expensive to do with high prices natural gas,” Barber said. “I think high gas prices will make SPR barrels less attractive for China and India unless heavily discounted.”

Energy Transfer Boosts Natural Gas, Oil Capacity with Enable Acquisition Completed - Dallas-based Energy Transfer LP owns and operates another 14,000 miles of natural gas and oil pipeline in Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas after completing its merger earlier this month with Enable Midstream Partners LP. The $7.2 billion tie-up, first announced in February, strengthens the midstream and gas transportation systems in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma, along with intrastate and interstate pipelines in Oklahoma and surrounding states. The merger also boosts Energy Transfer’s gas gathering and processing assets in the Arkoma Basin across Oklahoma and Arkansas, as well as in the Haynesville Shale in East Texas and North Louisiana. Altogether, Energy Transfer said it has more than 114,000 miles of pipelines and other infrastructure. Enable’s assets include about 14,000 miles of natural gas, crude oil, condensate and produced water gathering pipelines, around 2.6 Bcf/d of natural gas processing capacity and roughly 7,800 miles of interstate pipelines. Its portfolio also includes around 2,200 miles of intrastate pipelines and seven natural gas storage facilities comprising 84.5 Bcf of storage capacity. When the deal was announced, Energy Transfer said it could build off the combination to increasingly meet global demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. “Energy Transfer will further enhance its connectivity to the global LNG market and the growing global demand for natural gas as the world transitions to cleaner power and fuel sources,” it said at the time. Enable received federal approval in June to construct the Gulf Run natural gas pipeline. The $540 million pipeline project is backed by a 20-year commitment for 1.1 Bcf/d from cornerstone shipper Golden Pass LNG. Gulf Run is expected to be placed into service in late 2022. Golden Pass is underway in Sabine Pass on the upper Texas coast. Energy Transfer, meanwhile, continues to face setbacks in its bid to expand the controversial Dakota Access oil pipeline. The pipeline subsidiary in September asked the U.S. Supreme Court to weigh in on the case.

Rural Minnesota hit hard by high cost of propane - Minnesota Reformer— The cost of propane hasn’t been this high in nearly a decade, up more than 60% from last year alone, forcing consumers to spend hundreds of dollars more this winter to heat their homes.Virtually every household can expect to pay more for heat this winter, but the pain will be especially acute for people who rely on propane. The average cost of propane in the Midwest is $2.37 a gallon, up more than a dollar from this time last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.Swings in propane prices are felt more broadly in Minnesota, where 10% of households use propane to heat their homes, more than twice the national rate. Propane use is even more common in rural areas where people can’t access natural gas, which is generally more cost-effective than propane.Thirty percent of households in Pine County are heated with propane, while in a handful of other counties, more than 40% of households do so.And unlike electricity and natural gas, propane prices aren’t regulated by the state’s Public Utilities Commission, so consumers pay what the market demands.

Enbridge says aggressive climate policies shortening life of its pipelines - Faced with growing uncertainties over the future of fossil fuels, Enbridge wants to cut by a decade the estimated economic life span of its Upper Midwest pipeline system, which includes the newly built Line 3. Enbridge's acknowledgement of growing climate policy pressure on its pipelines' longevity came in federal regulatory filings earlier this year. Last week, Indigenous environmental group Honor the Earth asked Minnesota regulators to "promptly" start setting up a decommissioning fund for new Line 3, given a possible shorter-than-expected life span. Enbridge maintains that its controversial new Line 3 oil pipeline in Minnesota will have a 30-year economic life extending to 2051, regardless of the new life span analysis of its pipeline system that pegs 2040 as an ending point. Assets can continue to operate well beyond their originally scheduled economic life; Enbridge has oil pipelines running through Minnesota and other states that date back to the 1950s. The new Line 3, completed in October, replaces a 1960s pipeline. As part of its approval of the Line 3 project, the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission mandated a decommissioning fund for the pipeline's eventual demise. However, the fund has not been established, nor have any details on how much money Enbridge must pay into it. "We thought it was useful to put some pressure on them," said Paul Blackburn, an attorney for Honor the Earth. Enbridge said in a statement it is awaiting direction from the PUC on the decommissioning fund. The PUC said in a statement that "there is no requirement that the trust fund be established or funded on a specific timeline." The commission said, however, that last week it created a docket specifically to move forward on the issue. When new Line 3 was proposed, Calgary, Alberta-based Enbridge said it would have an economic life of at least 30 years. Economic life marks how long an asset will be useful and profitable — and over how many years its costs will be depreciated. In May, consultants for Enbridge prepared a "technical depreciation update" for the company's Lakehead pipeline system. The Lakehead system — the largest conduit of Canadian oil into the United States — includes six pipelines across Minnesota and several more in Wisconsin and other states. Enbridge's consultants, looking at the Lakehead system as of 2020, calculated that generally its economic life would be "truncated" as of Dec. 31, 2040, according to a document filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). That truncation date was based on expectations of increasing competition to Enbridge's system combined with "uncertainty" from a rising tide of "decarbonization" legislation in Canada and the U.S., according to another document filed with FERC. The filing specifically noted President Joe Biden's "detailed climate plans" to achieve a 100% clean energy economy by 2050 and Canada's plans for a four-fold increase in its carbon taxes by 2030..

Big Oil cautions against disruptive energy transition -The chief executives of the two largest U.S. oil companies on Monday reiterated their beliefs that the world will continue to rely on fossil fuels for years, if not decades, to come — even as society shifts toward cleaner forms of energy. Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods and Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told thousands of attendees at the first full day of the World Petroleum Congress in downtown Houston that they shared the world’s concerns about climate change and touted their efforts to reduce their carbon emissions. While European oil majors have expanded into wind and solar power to prepare for a low-carbon future, Exxon and Chevron are investing heavily in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and biofuels, reflecting their beliefs that fossil fuels will remain the world’s choice for affordable and reliable fuel — as long as they can mitigate harmful carbon emissions. “The growth of emissions-free energy is good for society and an objective our company supports,” Woods said. “The fact remains that under most critical scenarios, including net-zero pathways, oil and natural gas will continue to play a significant role in meeting society’s needs.” A debate over the future of fossil fuels is playing out at the World Petroleum Congress, the triennial energy conference that brings together the world’s energy ministers and professionals for a week of panel discussions and trade exhibits. The conference, held in Houston for the first time in three decades, was postponed last year because of the pandemic. About 5,000 attendees are expected this year, about half of the 10,000 attendees anticipated before the coronavirus spread in early 2020. As economic activity and travel recovers from the pandemic, the sharp uptick in demand for gasoline and jet fuel hasn’t kept up with crude production, causing gasoline prices in the U.S. and natural gas prices in Europe and Asia to skyrocket in recent months. High fuel prices have forced the climate-minded Biden administration to urge OPEC to boost production, and European countries to appeal to Russia to supply more natural gas to ensure adequate winter supplies. Chevron’s Wirth pointed to these energy price shocks as evidence of fossil fuels’ staying power. “The world needs affordable, reliable and ever cleaner energy every day. It’s indispensable in today’s global economy,” Wirth said. “Our products make the world run, and we can make it run even better.” Woods cautioned against a disruptive energy transition that would create shortages and boost prices, adding that many people take for granted the benefits of fossil fuels, which provided the low-cost energy that helped create modern society. They also forget the billions of people in developing countries who lack access to affordable energy that could help provide them with higher standards of living.

Top Republicans Introduce Bill Forcing Biden To Boost US Oil, Gas Production --A group of top House Republicans introduced a bill Thursday that would force President Joe Biden to increase domestic oil and gas production when he taps the nation’s emergency stockpile.The Strategic Production Response Act would require the Department of Energy to develop a plan for fossil fuel extraction on federal lands every time the government taps the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for non-emergency purposes, the Republicans announced. The bill is a companion to one that was introduced by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Republicans on Dec. 1.“The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was created by Congress to respond to oil supply disruptions that may arise after a natural disaster or war,” Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Cathy McMorris Rodgers, one of the bill’s sponsors, said in a statement. “The SPR is not supposed to be tapped as a bailout for the President’s anti-fossil fuel agenda, which has led to the highest gas prices in seven years.”“Releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not a long-term solution to help hard-working families devastated by these failed policies,” Rodgers said.On Nov. 23, Biden ordered the Energy Department to release 50 million barrels of crude A group of top House Republicans introduced a bill Thursday that would force President Joe Biden to increase domestic oil and gas production when he taps the nation’s emergency stockpile.The Strategic Production Response Act would require the Department of Energy to develop a plan for fossil fuel extraction on federal lands every time the government taps the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for non-emergency purposes, the Republicans announced. The bill is a companion to one that was introduced by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Republicans on Dec. 1.“The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was created by Congress to respond to oil supply disruptions that may arise after a natural disaster or war,” Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Cathy McMorris Rodgers, one of the bill’s sponsors, said in a statement. “The SPR is not supposed to be tapped as a bailout for the President’s anti-fossil fuel agenda, which has led to the highest gas prices in seven years.”“Releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not a long-term solution to help hard-working families devastated by these failed policies,” Rodgers said.On Nov. 23, Biden ordered the Energy Department to release 50 million barrels of crude oil from the SPR in an effort to halt surging gasoline prices ahead of Thanksgiving. Oil prices, a key factor in determining gas prices, quickly rose after the announcement, however.

How ‘Big Oil’ Works the System and Keeps Winning --Despite countless investigations, lawsuits, social shaming, and regulations dating back decades, the oil and gas industry remains formidable. After all, it has made consuming its products seem like a human necessity. It has confused the public about climate science, bought the eternal gratitude of one of America’s two main political parties, and repeatedly out-maneuvered regulatory efforts. And it has done all this in part by thinking ahead and then acting ruthlessly. While the rest of us were playing checkers, its executives were playing three-dimensional chess. Take this brief tour of the industry’s history, and then ask yourself: Is there any doubt that these companies are now working to keep the profits rolling in, even as mega-hurricanes and roaring wildfires scream the dangers of the climate emergency? […] Here’s a final example of how the oil and gas industry plans for the next war even as its adversaries are still fighting the last one. Almost no one outside of a few law firms, trade groups, and congressional staff in Washington, DC, knows what the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is or does. But the oil and gas industry knows, and it moved quickly after Donald Trump became president to lay the groundwork for decades of future fossil fuel dependency.FERC has long been seen as a rubber stamp for the oil and gas industry: The industry proposes gas pipelines, and FERC approves them. When FERC approves a pipeline, that approval grants the pipeline eminent domain, which in effect makes the pipeline all but impossible to stop.Oil and gas industry executives seized upon Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House. In the opening days of his administration, independent researchers listened in on public trade gatherings of the executives, who talked about “flooding the zone” at FERC. The industry planned to submit not just one or two but nearly a dozen interstate gas pipeline requests. Plotted on a map, the projected pipelines covered so much of the U.S. that they resembled a spider’s web. Once pipelines are in the system, companies can start to build them, and utility commissioners in every corner of America see this gas “infrastructure” as a fait accompli. And pipelines are built to last decades. In fact, if properly maintained, a pipeline can last forever in principle. This strategy could allow the oil and gas industry to lock in fossil fuel dependency for the rest of the century.

North Dakota’s natural gas producers meet the state’s natural gas capture target - (EIA) - In North Dakota, the rate of natural gas flaring (which is natural gas burned at the wellhead of the production site rather than being captured) declined to an average of 7.5% this year through September. This decline in natural gas flaring resulted in producers capturing 92.5% of produced natural gas, which meets the state’s goal to capture 91% of the natural gas produced in the state. In early 2020, natural gas production fell rapidly as a result of COVID-19-related impacts, from 3.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in March to 1.9 Bcf/d in May, but returned to pre-pandemic levels almost as rapidly, reaching 2.9 Bcf/d by October of the same year. From April 2020 to September 2021, producers met the state capture target for every month except July 2021.In July 2014, the North Dakota Industrial Commission adopted natural gas capture targets in response to increased natural gas flaring in the state’s Bakken and Three Forks formations. The rapid development of hydrocarbon resources in North Dakota, especially crude oil, over the past decade has outpaced the ability of regional infrastructure to process and transport associated natural gas from crude oil production. Flared natural gas produced from oil wells increased as a result of inadequate gathering and processing infrastructure. In 2013, the year before natural gas capture targets took effect, more than 30% of the natural gas produced in North Dakota was flared.Meeting the capture targets required a buildout of natural gas gathering lines to transport natural gas from wells to processing plants and a buildout of the processing plants that remove impurities and heavier hydrocarbons from the natural gas. The North Dakota Industrial Commission reports that natural gas processing capacity in the state increased from 1 Bcf/d in 2013 to 3.4 Bcf/d in 2020, and they expect it to exceed 4.0 Bcf/d by the end of 2021.Expanded pipeline capacity to move natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) out of the state has further improved North Dakota’s midstream infrastructure. NGPLs must be separated from the raw natural gas before the natural gas can enter interstate pipelines. This process requires a dedicated pipeline network that moves the mixed NGPLs to fractionation plants where the mix is separated into its individual components, such as ethane and propane.Without an outlet for NGPLs, natural gas processing plants cannot process raw natural gas. According to ourLiquids Pipeline Projects Database, the pipeline capacity to move NGPLs out of the North Dakota production region increased from 60,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2013 to more than 580,000 b/d as of September 2021.

Criminal case for largest oil field spill in North Dakota history resolves with $15M fine, probation Summit Midstream Partners entered into a $36 million settlement agreement with the federal government and the state of North Dakota earlier this year after an investigation found the company allowed nearly 30 million gallons of contaminated water to spill in western North Dakota in 2014 and 2015. — A federal judge sentenced the company responsible for North Dakota's largest ever oil field spill to $15 million in criminal fines and three years of probation on Monday, Dec. 6.The sentence for Summit Midstream Partners was entered by U.S. District Court Judge Daniel Traynor and comes three months after the U.S. Department of Justice and the state of North Dakota announced a settlement agreement with the company totaling more than $36 million in criminal and civil penalties and natural resource damages.Federal prosecutors charged Summit for negligence and violations of environmental laws in the spill of 29 million gallons of produced water — a highly concentrated salt fluid that is a byproduct of oil extraction — north of Williston over a five-month period in 2014 and 2015. The incident resulted in the contamination of land, groundwater and more than 30 miles of Blacktail Creek, a Missouri River tributary.A federal investigation found Summit continued operating its produced water pipeline after multiple warning signs indicated a leak. In one instance, court records show, a drop in pressure prompted a facilities engineer to suggest shutting down the pipeline, but the company kept running it. Summit pleaded guilty to the criminal charges in September. Later that month, Traynor approved $20 million in civil fines. No individuals have been chargedDave Glatt, director of the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality, said cleanup at the site of the Summit spill is ongoing seven years after the incident. The stream rebounded well from the spill, Glatt said, but some groundwater in the area remains contaminated.The spill is the largest in North Dakota history and also believed to be the biggest ever to occur on land anywhere in the country.In addition to the criminal fine, Traynor approved a series of probation requirements aimed at ensuring Summit's adherence to environmental laws and mitigating possible future spills. Among the probationary penalties is a requirement that the company implement a system for employees to anonymously report leaks or breaches of environmental law.

California Oil Regulators Deny New Fracking Permits - — California denied 21 oil drilling permits this week in the latest move toward ending fracking in a state that makes millions from the petroleum industry but is seeing widespread drought and more dangerous fire seasons linked to climate change. State Oil and Gas Supervisor Uduak-Joe Ntuk sent letters Thursday to Aera Energy denying permits to drill using hydraulic fracturing in two Kern County oil fields to “protect “public health and safety and environmental quality, including (the) reduction and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions." Aera Energy, a joint venture Shell and ExxonMobil, called the permit denials “disappointing though not surprising." “This is the latest decision attacking the oil and gas industry that is based solely on politics rather than sound data or science,” Aera spokeswoman Cindy Pollard said Friday, adding that the company was evaluating its legal options. “Banning hydraulic fracturing will only put hard-working people of California out of work and threaten our energy supplies by making the state more dependent on foreign oil," she said. “In the face of the effects of the climate emergency, the risks to everyday Californians are too high to approve these permits,” Ntuk said Friday in emails to the Bakersfield Californian and the San Francisco Chronicle. Gov. Gavin Newsom applauded the move, his office said. In April, Newsom directed the state's Geologic Energy Management Division, or CalGEM, to develop a plan to stop issuing new fracking permits by 2024 after a measure to ban fracking died in the Legislature. Newsom also has ordered the California Air Resources Board to figure out how the state can end all oil production by 2045. Those decisions would make California the largest state to ban fracking and likely the first in the world to set a deadline for ending oil production. Still Newsom, who is facing a recall election in September, is treading a risky path. California is the seventh-largest oil-producing state, with more than 60,000 active wells. CalGEM has approved 100 new oil well-drilling permits and a dozen new fracking permits this year, according to state records cited by the Chronicle. The industry directly employed about 152,000 people and was responsible for $152.3 billion in economic output, according to a 2019 study commissioned by the Western States Petroleum Association.

Crude reality: One U.S. state consumes half the oil from the Amazon rainforest, report finds — The bulldozers rumble through after sunrise, clearing out massive amounts of trees in this remote and remarkable section of the Amazon rainforest. It's a place where giant otters patrol the waterways and endangered white-bellied spider monkeys swing from tree to tree. Where a dazzling array of birds — upward of 600 species — nest in the dense canopy. Where more than 60 kinds of snakes and 140 different frogs and toads inhabit the ground below. The Yasuní National Park is home to one of the most diverse collections of plants and animals on the planet. But beneath this 3,800-square-mile swath of forest lies another kind of treasure: crude oil. More than 1 billion barrels of it. Over the past 50 years, oil companies have extracted immense amounts of crude from the Amazon, causing the destruction of rainforest crucial to slowing climate change and jeopardizing the Indigenous tribes who rely on it. Now, a state-run oil company that subcontracts its field operations to the Chinese is building a road to reach what will be a new section of wells deep inside Yasuní. "It hurts me to see the little that is left of our rainforest inside this protected area," Nemo Guiquita, a leader of the Waorani tribe, told NBC News during a boat trip through the national park. "We should be fighting to protect our rainforest in Ecuador, but instead they are granting more oil concessions." The oil extracted from Yasuní and the wider Amazon is exported around the world, but 66 percent goes to the U.S. on average and the vast majority of that to one state in particular: California, according to a new report shared exclusively with NBC News. The report by the environmental groups Stand.earth and Amazon Watch found that on average 1 in every 7 tanks of gas, diesel or jet fuel pumped in southern California last year came from the Amazon rainforest. Among the top 25 largest corporate consumers are companies such as Costco, PepsiCo and Amazon, according to the report. "This is no longer one of those things where we're supposed to have sympathy for a crisis that's happening somewhere else," said Angeline Robertson, a senior researcher at Stand.earth and the lead author of the report. "It's occurring in California, and it's linked to Amazon destruction."

Fuel-Contaminated Water From Aging Navy Facility Sickens Pearl Harbor Families -- Barely one week before top military brass, veterans and Hawaii government officials were to mark the 80th anniversary of the bombing of Pearl Harbor, families living in military housing around Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam on Oahu noticed something was wrong with their tap water. They smelled gasoline and saw a sheen on the surface. Complaints and questions were soon followed by sickness. Infants developed bright red rashes, people and pets vomited, and children and adults were rushed to emergency rooms with sores in their mouths, headaches, stomach cramps, nausea and bloody stool. Initially, U.S. Navy officials dismissed concerns and said they had been drinking the water themselves without problem. On November 29, the base commander said in a statement, “[T]here are no immediate indications that the water is not safe.” But three days later, Navy officials reported that tests found that Navy drinking water lines had been contaminated with volatile hydrocarbons like those present in JP-5 jet fuel used for aircraft carriers. At the center of the crisis is the U.S. military’s Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility which includes 20 steel-lined tanks built between 1940-43 underground into the Kapukaki Ridge just east of Ke Awa Lau O Puuloa (known as Pearl Harbor) near U.S. Indo-Pacific Command headquarters. Each tank holds 12.5 million gallons of fuel which is used for the endless stream of naval vessels and military aircraft that operate from Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam and nearby military installations at the heart of the U.S. military presence in the Pacific. The Red Hill facility has a history of spills and leaks, dating back as far as 1948. Since its construction, the nearly 80-year-old tanks have leaked more than 180,000 gallons of fuel, according to Sierra Club of Hawaii estimates. Built vertically in porous volcanic rock, the tanks sit roughly 100 feet above a key aquifer that provides water to more than 90,000 military service members and their families, as well as the greater Honolulu metropolitan area, home to some 400,000 people. Infants developed bright red rashes, people and pets vomited, and children and adults were rushed to emergency rooms with sores in their mouths, headaches, stomach cramps, nausea and bloody stool. Speaking at a town hall meeting on December 2, Rear Admiral Blake Converse, deputy commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, said a test found petroleum products just above the waterline in a Red Hill well. He said that the problem would be resolved with “significant additional flushing … with a good water source.” However, that same day, Hawaii Congressman Kaialii (Kai) Kahele called the situation a “crisis of astronomical proportions.” Kahele, an Iraq and Afghanistan war combat veteran and Hawaii Air National Guard pilot, described visiting the home of one impacted Navy family who took their daughter to the emergency room for a headache and throat irritation where she was diagnosed with “chemical burns in her mouth.”Holding up a plastic bottle filled at the family’s home, Kahele said, “If you smell this water, you would know that there is something wrong with this water.” At a subsequent public meeting, Captain Michael McGinnis, a surgeon with U.S. Pacific Fleet, advised, “There are no long-term consequences from a short-term exposure”…” According to a Honolulu Star-Advertiser report, petroleum contamination in the Navy’s water supply was present as early as last July.Meanwhile, some schools in the affected area have stopped using tap water and the military has established medical walk-in facilities, medical and counseling services, a hotline, portable showers and bottled water distribution sites to serve impacted residents.

Hawaii governor orders the Navy to shutdown its WWII-era fuel storage facility at Pearl Harbor after petroleum leaks into water supply -The US Navy announced Monday it has suspended operations at the Red Hill bulk fuel storage facility after petroleum leaked into the Navy Water System used as drinking water for residents and personnel on base. The service is now using above ground storage tanks on Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam for fueling aircraft, ground vehicles and ships, a spokesperson confirmed to Insider. On Tuesday, Hawaii's leaders asked the service to take that action one step further. Hawaii's governor, alongside the state's Department of Health, issued an order to the Navy to not only suspend fuel operations at Red Hill but to come up with a plan to drain as much as 250 million gallons of fuel stored in its 20 underground tanks. "If at some point the tanks have been remediated and corrective action has been taken, they may apply for a permit or ask the permission of the Department of Health" to continue operations at Red Hill, said Kathleen Ho, the deputy director of environmental health at the DOH during a press conference Tuesday. Although the Navy now says it suspended operations at Red Hill on Nov. 27, the state was not informed of that action until Dec. 7, the governor confirmed to reporters during a press conference on Tuesday. Military residents at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam first reported feeling ill and smelling gasoline in their water on Nov. 28. The Navy confirmed the presence of petroleum in their water supply on Dec. 3. Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro apologized to Hawaii's military families and said the Navy is "already working extremely hard" to find a solution to the water crisis. The Navy has said they believe that the source of the contamination is the Red Hill water shaft, just a half a mile from the Red Hill fuel storage facility. However, state leaders said today that no one has been able to confirm how fuel is getting into the water system. The Navy's water system serves over 93,000 people on Oahu. The Red Hill bulk fuel storage was built in 1941 and consists of 20 underground steel-lined tanks that can each hold about 12.5 million gallons of fuel. The facility currently stores and dispenses three types of petroleum fuel — marine diesel for ships and two types of jet fuel, JP-5 and JP-8 — according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

Gravel or Green: What Will Become of Alaska’s Coastal Plain? - Life on the coastal plain of Alaska exists on a scale difficult to capture. It’s a wild place where herds of caribou move around wolves and bears in wide arcs, musk oxen graze among dwarf willows, and gyrfalcons search the terrain for waterbirds. The tundra ground cover — a thick mat of damp, stunted vegetation — has sat atop the permafrost that’s existed since at least the last ice age. Conspicuous clusters of bright metal buildings also dot this landscape: oil wells, storage tanks, and generators — all linked by a sprawling system of roads and pipelines. Prudhoe Bay, at the center of the north Alaskan coastal plain, is one of the largest oil fields in North America. More than 800 wells stretch across more than 300 square miles, drawing oil from deep underground. Caribou migrate here across the imposing mountains of the Brooks Range unimpeded by human-made obstruction, only to bow their heads under pipelines when they reach the plains. Brown bears meander across the tundra under the watchful eye of oil workers, like teenagers shadowed by mall security. And wolves sniff the air to disentangle the mingling scents of prey and diesel. In some ways this arrangement works. The oil companies, perhaps reluctant to attract additional public scrutiny, have imposed on themselves rules about how to live and work in the oil fields. Most travel directly on the tundra is forbidden for workers, and any interactions with animals are prohibited. For a place with so many roads and so much wildlife, vehicle strikes are surprisingly rare. The heart of this industrial landscape is unexpectedly clean. Yet despite these safeguards, the ecosystem is thrown off balance. Oil infrastructure provides artificial nesting places for previously uncommon predators such as ravens. Red foxes, likely lured by anthropogenic sources of food and warmth, have moved into Prudhoe Bay to kill and displace Arctic foxes. Dust blowing off a gravel road may collect on adjacent land and hasten snowmelt. These disruptions — perhaps more than oil industry executives and the people who regulate them initially understood — have a long half-life.

Trans Mountain Pipeline Resumes Service Following BC Floods - Oil and refined products flows resumed Sunday through Trans Mountain Pipeline after a three-week suspension of deliveries as a safety precaution during floods in southern British Columbia. “The restart comes following completion of all necessary assessments, repairs, and construction of protective earthworks needed for the pipeline to be returned to service,” said the Calgary firm.Trans Mountain reported no pipe breaks or leaks but said 470 crewmen, six helicopters and 100 earth-moving machines replaced 57,200 cubic yards of ground cover that rain and mudslides washed away during storms that started Nov. 14.Costs of the suspension and restoration operations were not disclosed. The storms hit western and southern sections of the 1,150-kilometer (690-mile) pipeline that delivers 300,000 b/d to the Vancouver area from the Alberta capital in Edmonton.Outside the bad weather zone, work continued on an expansion project to increase Trans Mountain’s capacity to 890,000 b/d, primarily for overseas exports of Alberta oilsands production.The B.C. government said a mild form of fuel rationing would continue while Trans Mountain and a 55,000 b/d refinery operated in suburban Burnaby by Parkland Corp. resume normal operations.The program stops short of reviving wartime-style ration coupons. Instead, gasoline refills for personal travel at any one service station are limited to 30 liters (eight gallons) per car. No restrictions apply to public service and commercial vehicles from ambulances and police cruisers to taxis, buses, delivery trucks and farm machines.Parkland replaced suspended Trans Mountain refined products shipments with imports from the United States on railways and ocean barges. But flooding and road damage disrupted fuel truck deliveries to southern and western B.C. service stations.The storms did not cut B.C. natural gas supplies and only caused a brief precautionary reduction of exports to the northwestern U.S. by Enbridge Inc.’s Westcoast pipeline system, which has different routes than Trans Mountain.As the oil pipeline resumed operations, the B.C. government ended evacuation orders for two small cities that suffered the worst flooding: Abbotsford, 70 kilometers (42 miles) west of Vancouver, and Merritt, 375 kilometers (225 miles) northwest of Vancouver.

Enbridge sees two options for pipelines after Canadian regulatory pushback --Enbridge Inc. is evaluating two tolling options for its vast Mainline oil pipeline network after a proposal to offer long-term contracts to keep the conduits full was rejected by Canada’s energy regulator. North America’s largest pipeline company will either pursue a modified, incentive-based version of its current arrangement, which allows producers to decide the volumes they want to ship each month, or a system that would ensure tolls are enough to cover costs and provide a return on investments, Chief Executive Officer Al Monaco said in a presentation Tuesday. The Mainline pipeline network ships more than 3 million barrels of crude a day from Alberta to the U.S. Midwest, where it connects to the Gulf Coast, as well as Ontario and Quebec. It includes the Line 3 and Line 5 conduits that have faced opposition in the U.S. New tolling options are being discussed after Canada Energy Regulator rejected Enbridge’s proposal to offer as much as 90% of space on its Mainline to companies with long-term contracts. Enbridge sought the new system to ensure that it could keep pipelines full as it faces increasing competition from projects that have contracted space, including the Trans Mountain expansion scheduled to be completed as early as next year. The incentive-based version of the current tolling arrangement could be implemented by the middle of 2023, but reaching “consensus can be difficult” among those who use the Mainline, said Colin Gruending, the company’s president of liquid pipelines. Switching to a so-called cost-of-service system would take longer, he said.

Cermaq fined $500,000 for 2017 diesel spill at fish farm northwest of Campbell River – Cermaq Canada has been fined $500,000 for spilling approximately 522 litres of marine diesel into the ocean near Campbell River sometime overnight between March 4 and 5, 2017. The Crown was seeking a fine of $1.4 million but Judge Catherine Crockett decided on Nov. 30 in Campbell River Provincial Court that Cermaq’s culpability in the case is “at the lower end of the scale but is more than a ‘near miss.’” The company also has no prior record, accepted responsibility and is “sincerely remorseful,” the judge said She also said that the Crown “has not proven harm and the potential for harm was low.” Cermaq pleaded guilty to the charge at “an early opportunity.” “The law is clear that the predominant sentencing consideration for offences of this nature is deterrence of both Cermaq and others,” Judge Crockett said. “I conclude that the consequences of this incident to Cermaq to date, including the monetary cost and damage to its reputation, go a long way to impress upon Cermaq the need to ensure its systems and training are sufficient to prevent similar offences in the future. Nevertheless, I must impose a fine in keeping with Cermaq’s corporate size and relative financial means, so the fine could not be seen by Cermaq, or other companies that operate in the marine environment, as simply the cost of doing business. I agree with the Crown that general deterrence is particularly important in the context of the fish farming industry which operates directly upon the ocean.”

Alberta Enacts More Stringent Rules to Seal Backlog of Idle Oil, Natural Gas Wells - Alberta’s oil and natural gas firms are set to make a C$2.3 billion ($1.8 billion) start to seal a backlog of 95,524 inactive wells over the next five years under rules enacted Wednesday by the province’s production watchdog agency. The requirements translate the more stringent environmental legislation into “tools we need to begin to move the needle on liability,” said Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) President Laurie Pushor. “With these new requirements, we’re pushing industry to clean up their sites sooner and ensuring the cost and responsibility of the cleanup rests on the shoulders of industry — where it should be.” The Licensee Life-Cycle Management rules enable the AER to identify idle wells that have no prospects of resuming production. They also set minimum cleanup expenditure targets for their owners. In addition, annual five-year plans are to be compiled by the well owners. For the first five-year plan the AER calculated total industry spending requirements would be C$422 million ($338 million) in 2022; C$443 million ($354 million) in 2023; C$465 million ($372 million) in 2024; C$489 million ($391 million) in 2015; and C$513 million ($410 million) in 2026. The cleanup budgets for the last three years of each five-year plan would be forecasts instead of fixed demands.

New type of earthquake discovered - A Canadian-German research team have documented a new type of earthquake in an injection environment in British Columbia, Canada. Unlike conventional earthquakes of the same magnitude, they are slower and last longer. The events are a new type of induced earthquake that have been triggered by hydraulic fracturing, a method used in western Canada for oil and gas extraction. With a network of eight seismic stations surrounding an injection well at distances of a few kilometers, researchers from the Geological Survey of Canada, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, and McGill University recorded seismic data of approximately 350 earthquakes. Around ten percent of the located earthquakes turned out to exhibit unique features suggesting that they rupture more slowly, similar to what has previously been observed mainly in volcanic areas. To date, researchers have explained the occurrence of earthquakes in the hydraulic-fracturing process with two processes. The first says that the fluid pumped into the rock generates a pressure increase substantial enough to generate a new network of fractures in the subsurface rocks near the well. As a result, the pressure increase can be large enough to unclamp existing faults and trigger an earthquake. According to the second process, the fluid pressure increase from injection in the subsurface also exerts elastic stress changes on the surrounding rocks that can be transmitted over longer distances. If the stress changes occur in rocks where faults exist, it can also lead to changes that cause the fault to slip and cause an earthquake. Recently, numerical models and lab analyses have predicted a process on faults near injection wells that has been observed elsewhere on tectonic faults. The process, termed aseismic slip, starts out as slow slip that does not release any seismic energy. The slow slip can also cause a stress change on nearby faults that causes them slip rapidly and lead to an earthquake. The lack of seismic energy from aseismic slip and the size of the faults involved make it difficult to observe in nature. Researchers have therefore not yet been able to document aseismic slip broadly with any association to induced earthquakes. The work of the current study, provides indirect evidence of aseismic loading, and a transition from aseismic to seismic slip. The German-Canadian research team interpret the recently discovered slow earthquakes as an intermediate form of conventional earthquake and aseismic slip—and thus as indirect evidence that aseismic slip can also occur in the vicinity of wells. The researchers therefore dubbed the events hybrid-frequency waveform earthquakes (EHW).

Brazil was the only South American country to increase crude oil production in 2020 --Brazil was the only oil-producing country in South America to report an increase in crude oil and condensate production in 2020 compared with 2019, according to our Country Analysis Brief: Brazil, which we updated this summer. In 2020, Brazil produced an average of 2.94 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and condensate, an increase of more than 150,000 b/d on average compared with 2019.Brazil increased its petroleum production in 2020 despite the drop in global petroleum demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Petroleum production in other South American countries, such as Ecuador, fell year over year in 2020. We expect Brazil's production to continue to grow, contributing to global petroleum production growth in 2021, according to our November Short-Term Energy Outlook.The Oil & Gas Journal estimates that as of January 2021, Brazil had 12.7 billion barrels of proved oil reserves, the second-largest oil reserves in South America after Venezuela.Within the last two years, Brazil’s state-controlled Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (commonly known as Petrobras) has significantly increased the number of production vessels operating in its pre-salt fields to boost crude oil production. Pre-salt oil refers to oil reserves that are exceptionally deep below the ocean under thick layers of rock and salt. The great depth and pressure involved in pre-salt production present significant technical hurdles. The company has overcome previous technological difficulties for drilling in deep water.Petrobras is the main participant in Brazil’s upstream, midstream, and downstream oil sector activities. The company held a monopoly on oil-related activities in Brazil until 1997, when the government opened the sector to competition.The Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP) is responsible for issuing exploration and production licenses and ensuring compliance with relevant regulations. In 2018, the ANP loosened rules that set the minimum percentages of the locally sourced goods and services required in exploration and production contracts. These changes could significantly affect Brazil’s growth in oil production in the future. Breakeven prices could fall significantly and lead to increased oil production. Producers saw Brazil’s previous local content rules as a disincentive for investment because of the limited and uncompetitive local supply chain, according to Business News Americas.

Maersk secures contract to drill well in Norwegian North Sea - Drilling-rig operator Maersk Drilling has secured a new contract from OMV (Norge) to drill a high pressure, high temperature exploration well in the Norwegian North Sea. As agreed, the rig owner will use the low-emission jack-up rig Maersk Intrepid to drill the exploration well in Block 30/5C of the North Sea basin. Contracted works are expected to start in the middle of next year. There are two companies currently working to add other services to the scope of works. Maersk Drilling COO Morten Kelstrup said: “We’re delighted that OMV once again trusts us with the exploration of their prospects and look forward to building further on the close and extremely efficient collaboration we established during Maersk Integrator’s campaign for the customer earlier this year.” As an ultra-harsh environment CJ70 XLE jack-up rig, Maersk Intrepid is designed for year-round operations in the North Sea. The rig is also one of the first Maersk Drilling’s rigs to be upgraded to a hybrid, low-emission rig. Initial data shows that the upgrade reduced fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 25%. It is currently working for Equinor Energy offshore Norway.

European gas stocks deplete rapidly in cold start to winter: Kemp (Reuters) - Europe’s gas stocks started the winter at their lowest for eight years and have been depleting rapidly, heightening concerns they could become uncomfortably low in early 2022 and exert upward pressure on prices. Inventories in the EU and Britain (EU28) fell to the equivalent of only 742 terawatt hours (TWh) on Dec. 5. That was the lowest for this time of year since 2013, according to data compiled by Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks have reduced by 97 TWh (12%) since the start of October, one of the largest drawdowns in the past decade, despite prices trading near record highs, which had been expected to limit consumption. Storage facilities are now only 66% full, a level of depletion they would not normally reach until the middle of January in an average winter (Link). Lower than normal temperatures across much of Northwest Europe so far this autumn and winter have intensified gas consumption and the pressure on storage. Average daily temperatures in Frankfurt, Germany, have been below the long-term seasonal average for 11 of the past 14 days. Frankfurt temperatures have averaged 0.4°C below the long-term seasonal norm over the 62 days since the start of October, boosting heating demand. At the same time, wind speeds have been slower than average over the past two months, which has depressed electricity generation from wind farms. The result has been increased direct consumption for residential and commercial heating as well as increased indirect consumption for power generation.

Gas price windfall makes Gazprom patient over Nord Stream 2 delay - Windfall revenues from high European gas prices mean Russia’s Gazprom will not start pumping gas through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline before certification and it will not press Germany to speed up the process, two sources said. Pumping gas without the German approval would only incur a modest fine, but as Germany gets new political leadership and Russia’s ties with the West are severely strained, a source at Gazprom said it was content to wait. “We don’t want to seek faster approval for the pipeline. Now it’s Germany that is in charge,” the source said on condition of anonymity. The same source said that Gazprom, Russia’s biggest tax payer, and the Kremlin were also keen to understand how ties with Germany’s new government would evolve after the departure of Angela Merkel, who supported Nord Stream 2. The Kremlin has said publicly it does not view as political the certification process, understands it is complex and that Russia must be patient. The second source said Gazprom was “feeling great” and expected next year’s gas market to remain as short of gas as it is now, keeping prices high. Gazprom’s additional supplies were not yet onstream, the source said. Elevated electricity costs have forced some industries to curtail production and European consumers are paying more for home heating as winter approaches, adding to wider inflationary pressures. The Russian gas export pipeline monopoly, which supplies 35% of European needs, says it is meeting contracted commitments – which top European clients have confirmed to Reuters. But European politicians, under pressure from consumers who face a jump in winter heating bills, say Russia could supply more and is using gas prices as leverage in a dispute over the Gazprom-backed Nord Stream 2. Gazprom, which declined to comment on Nord Stream 2, on Monday reported an all-time high quarterly net profit of 582 billion roubles ($8 billion) for the July-September quarter, reflecting high natural gas prices. It said it expected even higher earnings in coming months. The pipeline, which will double Russian gas export capacities to Europe via the Baltic Sea, is fiercely opposed by Ukraine, which stands to lose lucrative transit fees, and by many Western politicians who say Moscow uses energy as a political weapon, something it denies.

South Africans protest against Shell oil exploration in pristine coastal area - South Africans took to their beaches on Sunday to protest against plans by Royal Dutch Shell to do seimsic oil exploration they say will threaten marine wildlife such as whales, dolphins, seals and penguins on a pristine coastal stretch. A South African court on Friday struck down an application brought by environmentalists to stop the oil major exploring in the eastern seaboard’s Wild Coast, rejecting as unproven their argument that it would cause “irreparable harm” to the marine environment, especially migrating hump-back whales. The Wild Coast is home to some of the country’s most undisturbed wildlife refuges, and its stunning coastal wildernesses are also a major tourist draw. At least 1,000 demonstrators gathered on a beach near Port Edward, a Reuters TV correspondent saw.“It’s just absolutely horrendous that they are even considering this. Look around you?” said demonstrator Kas Wilson, indicating an unspoilt stretch of beach. “It’s unacceptable and … we will stop it. “Shell officials were not immediately available for comment, but the company said on Friday that its planned exploration has regulatory approval, and it will significantly contribute to South Africa’s energy security if resources are found. But local people fear the seismic blasting conducted over 6,000 square kilometres will kill or scare away the fish they depend on to live. “I don’t want them to operate here because if they do we won’t be able to catch fish,” said 62-year-old free dive fisherwoman Toloza Mzobe, after pulling a wild lobster from the ground. “What are we going to eat?” Environmentalists are urging Shell and other oil companies to stop prospecting for oil, arguing that the world has no chance of reaching net-zero carbon by 2050 if existing oil deposits are burned, let alone if new ones are found. Earlier this year, a Dutch court ordered Shell to reduce its planet-warming carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2019 levels, a decision it plans to appeal.

Monarch seeks more relief for victims of Nembe oil spill - KING Biobelemoye Josiah of Opu-Nembe Kingdom has called for more relief for victims of the recent Nembe oil spillage in Bayelsa State. The monarch also expressed appreciation to Governor Douye Diri of Bayelsa State for his empathy over the spillage. Josiah gave the commendation in a letter addressed to the governor and made available to newsmen on Saturday in Abuja. An oil well operated by indigenous oil firm, Aiteo Eastern Exploration and Production, within Oil Mining Lease (OML) 29, has been discharging oil and gas into Nembe Creeks since November 5. Although the oil firm has sought foreign technical assistance from a US firm, Boots and Coots, to cap the leak, the discharge is still ongoing. The traditional ruler lamented the continued destruction done to the environment and the loss of livelihood of the people of Opu-Nembe Kingdom, commending Diri for setting up a committee to assess the extent and effect of the spillage. He appreciated the visit of the governor for an on-the-spot assessment of the spillage, which is yet to be contained for about a month. ”Your Excellency, on behalf of the good people of Opu- Nembe Kingdom, I passionately request that you use your honoured office to ask the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) to swiftly distribute relief materials to communities affected by the persistently gushing oil and gas spill. ”Also for the following federal government agencies: The National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), Regulatory Commissions of the relevant Streams(up, mid and down) in the oil industry, The National Environmental Sanitation and Regulatory Agency (NESREA) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPC) to show more concern for the well-being of my people as well as reduce their sufferings,” he said. It would be recalled that management of Aiteo had visited the monarch few days after the incident occurred to brief him on response measures to contain the leak, express concerns over the impact of the leak, and donated relief materials. A Director of Aiteo Group Andrew Oru had, on Thursday, visited the spill site and said that in addition to an earlier four truck loads of food items and medical supplies, additional five truck loads of relief materials had been handed over to the victims. President Muhammad Buhari had earlier, on Nov. 25, dispatched Minister of State for Petroleum Chief Timipre Sylva to visit the spill site and empathise with impacted residents and ensure adequate response.

Nigerian wellhead has spilled 2m barrels of oil and gas - -A wellhead leak in Nigeria’s Bayelsa state has spewed two million barrels of oil and gas equivalent into the Delta creeks, the senate said on Tuesday. Nigerian oil firm Aiteo Eastern E&P reported the “extremely high order” leak from the Santa Barbara wellhead that it jointly owns with state oil company NNPC in early November. Weeks later, the wellhead was still violently spewing oil and gas. “Attempts to stop the continuous oil and gas spill by the operators had failed repeatedly for over one month running, wasting an estimated over 2 million barrels of hydrocarbon and gas,” a senate resolution stated, adding it showed “a disappointing appearance of technical incompetence in handling the incident on the part of Aiteo.” An Aiteo spokesman did not immediately reply to a request for comment. The company said previously it had contracted Halliburton subsidiary Boots & Coots to stop the spill, while President Muhammadu Buhari last month pledged it would be speedily addressed. The resolution, put forward by Bayelsa Senator Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo, expressed concern over the impact of the spill on the mangrove forests, aquatic life and air and water in the region. Nigeria’s Delta creeks and mangrove swamps are among the most polluted areas on earth after decades of oil and gas exploration. Senate President Ahmad Lawan said he was particularly disappointed an indigenous company was involved. “I believe that this particular case should be made to be an example of what government and its agencies can do, not only to force the alleged culprit to remedy the environment but also to penalize the oil company for devastating the lives of the people of that area,” Lawan said.

Upstream Regulatory Commission to explore provisions of PIA in tackling oil spills, says CEO - THE Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has assured on its commitment to tackle oil spills in Nigerian communities using the instrumentality of the Petroleum Industrial Act (Act).. This assurance, the agency said, was in fulfillment of its regulatory mandate as enshrined in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, the Petroleum Act and the Petroleum (Drilling and Production) Regulations and Subsidiary Legislations. The regulatory agency’s assurance follows concerns trailing the oil spill incident of November 3, 2021, which occurred at the Santa Barbara Well 1 operated by AITEO Eastern Exploration and Production Company in Bassambiri, Nembe Local Government Area of Bayelsa State. Chief Executive Officer of the regulatory agency Gbenga Komolafe said in a statement that the commission would continue to monitor the site situation and guide the operator until the spill and its attendant problems were completely addressed. He noted that the agency would implement all effective physical and engineering solutions to the incident, managing the safety of the response providers and people in the neighbouring communities while educating the general public on the site situation periodically. He said, “It will ensure that the pressure from the well is stopped to put an end to the oil release, the already released oil is appropriately contained and skimmed off as it is being released. A joint investigation visit (JIV) is conducted as soon as it is safe to do so, and cleanup and restorative actions are done immediately after the spill is stopped and compensation paid to affected communities timeously and in accordance with the law.

Senate condemns Bayelsa oil spill, demands environmental impact assessment - The Nigerian Senate has passed resolutions condemning the oil spill at Santa Babara well 1, OML 29 operated by AITEO Eastern Exploration and Production Company Nigeria Limited in Opu Nembe in Nembe Local Government Area of Bayelsa State. The Senate, therefore, asked the company to “urgently seek, explore, and deploy relevant highest level of expertise and technology to stop the spill and prevent the continuous damage to the environment as well as restore the life support system of the people.” The resolution was reached when Senator Biobarakuma Degi Eremienyo (Bayelsa East), drew the attention of the Senate by a motion on the oil spill as a matter of urgent public importance. A statement issued on Wednesday by his Special Assistant (Media), Ebinim Omubo, said the Senate urged the relevant agencies to “undertake environmental impact assessment to determine the extent of the pollution with a view to undertaking remediation in accordance with internationally accepted standards.” According to him, the Senate also resolved that the National Emergency Management Agency should as a matter of urgency provide relief materials because the ugly incident has taken a negative toll on the health and well-being of the people of the host communities which can be declared a disaster area. Omubo said, “During the presentation of his motion, Senator Degi Eremienyo noted that the policy on divestments by international oil companies in exploration and production of oil and gas is a welcome development as it creates space for indigenous companies to invest and grow in the industry.”

Oil spill in Nigeria’s Delta halted, state official says- (Reuters) – A wellhead that has been spilling oil and gas in Nigeria’s Bayelsa state has been successfully shut, more than a month after it started polluting the Delta creeks, the state’s minister for petroleum said on Wednesday. Nigerian oil firm Aiteo Eastern E&P reported the “extremely high order” leak from the Santa Barbara wellhead that it jointly owns with state oil company NNPC in early November. Weeks later, the wellhead was still violently spewing oil and gas. “We have put out the leak at SBAS-1. We are grateful for all the support,” minister Timipre Sylva said in a statement. Sylva said the next stage was to carry out a comprehensive service of the wellhead as well as clean up the surrounding area. An Aiteo spokesman said he would issue a statement later. The company said previously it had contracted Halliburton subsidiary Boots & Coots to stop the spill. A senate resolution on Tuesday said the leak had spewed two million barrels of oil and gas equivalent into the Niger Delta creeks and mangrove swamps, which are among some of the most polluted areas on earth after decades of gas and oil exploration.M

Surging LNG exports drive Australia's output to a record high but EnergyQuest issues reserves warning -Australian liquefied natural gas production hit a record high in the third quarter, but concern continues to mount for long-term output without further development.EnergyQuest estimates Australian petroleum production was a record 288.4 million barrels of oil equivalent during the quarter, up 21.6% on the previous three months, driven by record LNG exports of 21.1 million tonnes. The consultancy said the result highlighted “a recovery in national LNG production”, which had been affected recently by the performance of several developments in Western Australia.Rolling shut-downs of all three trains at Chevron’s Gorgon LNG development had affected production over the financial year ending 30 June, after cracks were found in the eight heat exchangers of Train 2 during routine maintenance in July last year.After a subsequent inspection, the project’s other two trains were sequentially shut down for repairs and maintenance. All three returned to production by the third quarter of 2021.Chevron did experience another short shutdown last month at Train 1 following the detection of a gas leak on piping associated with the dehydration unit. However,the train was back up and running before the end of the month.EnergyQuest also noted in its quarterly report that output had been affected in the previous financial year by “patchy results” from the Woodside Petroleum-operated North West Shelf venture, while Shell’s Prelude floating LNG development was finally operating at near nameplate capacity in the third quarter, following multiple issues since start-up. Prelude’s improved performance has been short-lived, however: Shell suspended production and evacuated staff following a fire on 2 December.EnergyQuest also highlighted “a strong recovery in production” at the Inpex-operated Ichthys development after a scheduled maintenance shutdown in the second quarter. It noted that Australia’s strong LNG production continued into the final quarter. A record 7.32 million tonnes was shipped in October, equating to 85.1 million tonnes per annum on an annualised basis, which is above the previous record of 84.8 million tpa on an annualised basis set in March this year. Australia's liquids production was also on the rise in the third quarter, with condensate production hitting a record 26.3 million barrels, which EnergyQuest said was due to "the stars aligning at most of the country's liquid-rich LNG projects". Oil output also totalled 10.4 million barrels in the recent quarter, up from 9.6 million barrels in the second quarter, which EnergyQuest attributed to good results from Woodside's Vincent project and the NWS, and a rebuild of volumes from the Santos-operated Van Gogh project.

Shell evacuates Prelude floating LNG plant after power outage -Royal Dutch Shell Plc has evacuated non-essential staff from its floating liquefied natural gas facility in northwest Australia as the operator struggled to restore power that knocked out operations earlier in the week, according to people familiar with the matter. The delay in bringing essential power generators back online at the Prelude LNG export plant had left workers without ventilation, potable water services and a sewage treatment system, said one of the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity as they’re not authorized to speak to media. The evacuation of non-essential staff was assisted by Inpex Corp.’s helicopter and rescue vessel, the people said. Shell said in an emailed statement that work to restore main power is underway, without commenting on the evacuation. The world’s biggest floating LNG plant suspended production and delayed the loading of a prompt cargo on Friday after suffering an issue that tripped power at the facility. The evacuation indicates that the plant could be shut for longer than originally anticipated, exacerbating a global shortage of natural gas. Shell and its partners are now considering canceling the scheduled LNG cargo loading due to the ongoing power issue, one of the people said.

DOE to invest P502 B for gas extraction – The Philippines is planning to invest P502 billion in the next two decades for its targeted gas reserves extraction of up to 4.0 trillion cubic feet (TCF) as a replacement to the depleting Malampaya field, according to the Department of Energy (DOE). DOE Undersecretary Felix William B. Fuentebella, during the Energy Investment Forum last Dec. 3, said the investments and capital raising for exploration and development of indigenous oil and gas upstream resources will be among the anchors of the country’s energy security. “We will continuously provide for the development and utilization of indigenous sources in the form of coal, oil and natural gas,” said Fuentebella. On the overall target of pursuing developments on indigenous energy resources, Fuentebella stated that aggregate investments could top P1.176 trillion with the heftier pie of P656.06 billion likely funneled into coal mining exploration and development ventures. Relative to the country’s persistent quest for Malampaya’s replacement, DOE Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi indicated that the Duterte administration’s initiative on lifting the exploration moratorium at the West Philippine Sea could reinforce eventual oil and gas development prospects in the specified diplomatically-saddled territories. The 4.0 TCF target of the exiting Duterte administration is even higher than the full commercial development potential at Malampaya, which had been pegged at a high of 3.4 trillion cubic feet. “For our petroleum sector, President Duterte’s lifting of the moratorium on the West Philippine Sea has enabled the resumption of exploration activities and the fulfillment of previously halted work program commitments,” Cusi said. At this stage though, most exploration and production (E&P) investors are still at the process of seeking guidance from the DOE how they could proceed with planned extended seismic surveys and eventual drilling activities, without being hamstrung by Chinese vessels roaming around conflict-ridden areas within the West Philippine Sea.

BlackRock, Saudi asset manager Hassana sign deal for Aramco's gas pipelines (Reuters) -Saudi Aramco said on Monday it has signed a $15.5 billion lease-and-leaseback deal for its gas pipeline network with a consortium led by BlackRock Real Assets and state-backed Hassana Investment Co. Gulf oil producers are looking at sales of stakes in energy assets and raising cash through long-term leases, capitalising on a rebound in crude prices to attract foreign investors. Earlier this year Aramco sold a 49% stake in its oil pipelines to a consortium led by U.S.-based EIG under a similar structure for $12.4 billion. As part of the latest transaction, a newly formed subsidiary, Aramco Gas Pipelines Co, will lease usage rights in the state energy firm’s gas pipelines network and lease them back to Aramco for a 20-year period, it said. In return, Aramco Gas Pipelines Co will receive a tariff payable by Aramco for the gas products that will flow through the network, backed by minimum commitments on throughput. Aramco will hold a 51% majority stake in Aramco Gas Pipeline Company and sell a 49% stake to investors led by BlackRock and Hassana, the asset management arm of the General Organization for Social Insurance (GOSI). Other bidders in the race included EIG and Brookfield, sources told Reuters earlier. Aramco will continue to retain full ownership and operational control of its gas pipeline network, and the transaction will not impose any restrictions on its production volumes, it said.

Saudi Arabia Proppants Market Insights by Leading Companies Future Growth, Revenue Analysis and Demand Forecast -- A proppant is a solid material which is suspended in water so as to facilitate the opening of an induced hydraulic fracture. These are used during the fracking stage of oil & gas extraction. With COVID-19 resulting in the economic fallout, numerous economies are working on game-changing improvements to protect their employees and clients. While focusing on the ongoing challenges, the leaders are embracing new plans in order to manage and stay afloat in this competitive environment. A proppant is a solid material which is suspended in water so as to facilitate the opening of an induced hydraulic fracture. These are used during the fracking stage of oil & gas extraction. Saudi Arabia Proppants Market Analysis, 2020 research report depicts a deep-dive market analysis of statistics of Saudi Arabia Proppants market which consists of regional and country-wise market size, market forecast, CAGR market segmentation, market shares of diverse regions and countries, market share of various end users, applications, product type, technologies, competitive benchmarking, etc. According to MarkNtel Advisors' research report titled“Saudi Arabia Proppants Market Analysis, 2020”, the Saudi Arabia Proppants market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of around 6% during 2020-25 on account of surging government investment toward the setup of proppant plants and shale gas plants, and burgeoning demand for proppants in the oil & gas sector. Moreover, rising hydraulic fracturing activities and surging inclination to produce domestic gas to power the electric grid are projected to boost the demand for proppants in the forecast period. Based on Type, Frac Sand acquired the largest market share in the Saudi Arabia Proppant market in 2019 due to an increasing local production of frac sand for the fracking of shale gas. Moreover, boost in government spending toward shale gas development is projected to bolster the demand for frac sand due to its efficiency, low cost, and availability. Therefore, this is anticipated to place a significant impact toward the growth of Saudi Arabia Proppants market in the forthcoming years.

OPEC will continue with supply adjustments for oil market, chief says -- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will continue with its supply adjustments for the oil market, the OPEC Secretary General said on Saturday. “We will continue to do what we know best to ensure we attain stability in the oil market on a sustainable basis,” Mohammad Barkindo said in a webinar organized by Italian think-tank ISPI. Oil prices fell on Thursday after OPEC and its allies stuck to their existing policy of monthly oil output increases despite fears a release from U.S. crude reserves and the new Omicron coronavirus variant would put renewed pressure on prices. Barkindo said in terms of oil demand the estimate at the moment was for a growth of 5.7 million barrels per day. “In 2022 we expect another 4.2 million,” he said. He said the uncertainty and volatility on the markets was also due to extraneous factors such as the ongoing Covid pandemic and not necessarily the fundamentals of oil and gas. “Now we are on course of returning the level of consumption in 2022 to pre-COVID levels,” he said. Barkindo said that the forecast was for oil and gas to account for more than 50% of the global energy mix in 2045 or even to mid century. “In all the pronouncements we had from Glasgow we have not yet seen any concrete road map or plans of how to replace this 50% … without creating unprecedented turmoil in the energy markets,” he said, referring to the Glasgow climate conference. “Oil and gas will be needed for the foreseeable future.”

Saudi Arabia raises January Arab Light crude prices to Asia - Saudi Arabia's state oil producer Aramco 2222.SE raised its January official selling price (OSP) to Asia for its flagship Arab Light crude to $3.30 a barrel versus Oman/Dubai crude, up $0.60 from December, the company said on Sunday. The company set the Arab Light OSP to Northwestern Europe at minus $1.30 per barrel versus ICE Brent and to the United States at plus $2.15 per barrel over ASCI (Argus Sour Crude Index).

Oil Futures Climb on Saudi Price Hike, Easing Omicron Fears-- Nearby delivery oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange rallied in early trade Monday after Saudi Aramco raised its official selling crude prices to Asia and the United States for the second consecutive month in January, signaling confidence in a demand recovery this winter. Early data on the omicron variant of coronavirus suggests the highly mutated strain is less lethal but more transmittable compared to the original COVID-19 virus. Omicron variant is now found in more than 40 countries worldwide but there are no reported deaths related to the new strain of COVID-19, according to official data from the Word Health Organization. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said this weekend the country is recording a rapid spread of omicron variant, but the rate of hospitalizations is lagging far behind the number of confirmed cases. Domestically, at least 15 states have confirmed omicron on Sunday, including in the Northeast, the South, the Great Plains, and the West Coast. Delta variant of coronavirus remains the dominant variant, making up more than 99% of cases and driving a surge of hospitalizations in the north. Oil futures early gains came on the back of Saudi Aramco's latest price move, where the world's top oil exporter raised its prices for crude oil bound to Asian and U.S. buyers for the second month in a row. The biggest price increases were for medium and heavy grades to Asian buyers. Aramco boosted its medium grade to Asia by 70 cents to a $3.05 barrel (bbl) premium over Oman/Dubai and its heavy grade by 80 cents bbl to a $1.80 bbl premium. Super light was raised by 30 cents bbl to a $6.15 bbl premium while extra light was increased to a $4.50 bbl premium. For U.S.-bound crudes, Aramco boosted its extra light OSP by 60 cents bbl to a $3.50 bbl premium. Higher premiums can be viewed as a sign of robust demand, supporting last week's decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies to raise oil production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January in spite of concerns related to the Omicron variant. Despite upbeat demand signals, OPEC+'s technical panel estimated the oil market is rapidly moving into oversupply next year, with gains in production seen outpacing demand by 2 million bpd next month and widening further to 3.4 million bpd in February. In March, OPEC+ expects a surplus on the global market to reach a whopping 3.8 million bpd. Near 7:30 a.m. EST, West Texas Intermediate January futures rallied more than $2 bbl to trade near $68.38 bbl and the international benchmark ICE February Brent contract jumped above $72 bbl, up $2.30 bbl in early trading. NYMEX RBOB January futures added 4.85 cents or 2.5% to $2.0014 gallon, and the front-month NYMEX ULSD contract strengthened to $2.1466 gallon.

Oil settles at highest in a week, up nearly 5%, as omicron fears ease -- Crude-oil prices on Monday settled with a gain of nearly 5%, as concerns surrounding the omicron variant of coronavirus that causes COVID-19 eased a bit. Other factors, including a move by the Saudis to raise crude prices for some buyers, and rising tensions in the Middle East, helped to shift some focus away from the pandemic. Energy prices have moved up “off chatter that the omicron virus might not present severe health problems,” analysts at Zaner wrote in Monday’s commentary. Recent reports have offered some cause for optimism about the new strain’s potential impact on the economy. The U.S.’s top medical adviser Anthony Fauci said that omicron didn’t appear to produce a “great deal of severity” in cases, aligning with some early research that indicates that infections tend to be milder compared against other variants. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia increased its prices of Arab Light oil over the weekend for January delivery that it sells to Asia and U.S. by up to a two-year high, according to Reuters. The decision by the Saudis, the de facto head of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and one of the biggest oil producers in the world, to hike the cost of the oil to the U.S. and Asia “comes amidst expectations that demand will remain high in the new year,”

Oil Prices Rise As Fears Of Omicron Lockdowns Subside - Oil prices rose early on Tuesday for the second day in a row, as traders are cautiously optimistic that the new Omicron COVID variant would not lead to massive lockdowns around the world to the point of severely reducing global oil demand. As of 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday, WTI Crude was up 2.85% at $71.55 and Brent Crude had gained 2.30% to $74.86. Oil prices had started to rebound on Monday after Saudi Arabia signaled optimism about demand by hiking its official January crude oil selling prices for Asia and the United States—its biggest markets. Amid heightened worry about the course of the pandemic after the emergence of Omicron, Saudi Arabia injected a dose of confidence in markets by raising its official selling price for its flagship Arab Light to a nearly two-year high.The market was also relieved on Monday that early reports into Omicron have shown milder symptoms, although the variant is thought to be much more transmissible.“Although it’s too early to make any definitive statements about it, thus far it does not look like there’s a great degree of severity to it,” the White House’s chief medical advisor, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told CNN on Monday, but cautioned it was still too early to make sweeping assessments of the severity of the variant. “The signals are a bit encouraging,” he added.“Investors have begun to recalibrate their assessment of the economic impact of the Omicron, setting aside the worst fears triggered by news of the heavily-mutated variant about 10 days ago,” Vanda Insights said in a note on Tuesday.“Yesterday’s optimism can quickly turn into gloom again unless scientific evidence confirms that the economic impact of the latest variant is, in fact, negligible. Yesterday’s impressive performance is being followed-through this morning, partly due to a decent jump in Chinese crude oil imports last month,” broker PVM Oil Associates commented on the oil market on Tuesday.Finally, a stalemate in the Iran nuclear talks is also bullish for the market, with Germany saying on Monday that Iran should return to the talks with realistic proposals that don’t breach previously reached compromises.

Oil rises 3%, extending rally as Omicron fears retreat - Oil prices climbed by more than 3% on Tuesday, extending the previous day's rebound of almost 5% as concerns eased further about the impact on global fuel demand of the Omicron coronavirus variant. Brent crude futures settled up $2.36, or 3.2%, at $75.44 a barrel, after Monday's rise of 4.6%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.56, or 3.7%, to $72.05, building on a 4.9% gain the previous session. At the session highs on Tuesday, each contract was up more than $3. Oil prices tumbled last week on concerns that vaccines might be less effective against the new Omicron variant, sparking fears that governments could impose fresh restrictions that would sink fuel demand. However, a South African health official reported over the weekend that Omicron cases there had shown only mild symptoms while the top U.S. infectious disease official, Anthony Fauci, also said there did not appear to be "a great degree of severity" with the variant so far. "The market was oversold as a knee-jerk reaction to Omicron and its potential spread and impact on travel restrictions," In another sign of confidence in oil demand, the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, raised monthly crude prices on Sunday. Last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to keep raising output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January despite release of U.S. strategic petroleum reserves. "The market is starting to take this variant in its stride," Oil prices were also supported by delays to the return of Iranian oil, with indirect nuclear talks between the United States and Iran having hit stumbling blocks. Germany urged Iran on Monday to present realistic proposals in talks over its nuclear programme.

WTI Holds Gains After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw - Oil prices closed higher on the day, but well off the intraday highs, on optimism that the omicron variant may not be as severe as feared, easing concern over the demand outlook.“While there is probably going to be some demand destruction because of omicron, the market priced in a lot worse than what it’s going to be,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc.“We are getting back to more real fundamentals versus the fear fundamentals we were trading on last week.”Adding to bullish sentiment, the prospect of a deal to unlock sanctions on over 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports is receding, RBC analyst Helima Croft said in a report.API

• Crude -3.089mm (-1.2mm exp)
• Cushing +2.4mm
• Gasoline +3.7mm (+1.4mm exp)
• Distillates +1.2mm (+900k exp)

A bigger than expected crude draw last week, according to API, but big builds at Cushing and for products...WTI was hovering around $71.60 ahead of the API print.The outlook for oil demand has "returned to being positive, while oil supply remains tight as economies recuperate from the rock bottom situation witnessed in 2020," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade.However, not everyone is as bulled up as the EIA also cut its oil forecasts for 2022 by 2.7% to $66.42 for WTI and by 2.6% to $70.05 for Brent."This is a very complicated environment for the entire energy sector," said EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley, in a statement."Our forecasts for petroleum and other energy prices, consumption, and production could change significantly as we learn more about how responses to the omicron variant could affect oil demand and the broader economy."On a side note, while the Biden admin celebrates the 'drop' in the gas price at the pump, the underlying (Crude and Wholesale Gasoline) are starting to rally again as Omicron fears - which sent prices lower - fade...

Oil jumps back above $75 as investors assess Omicron's impact - Oil prices edged higher in choppy trade on Wednesday, taking a breather after gains earlier this week, as investors assessed the impact of the Omicron coronavirus variant on the global economy. The market had a muted reaction to U.S. weekly inventory figures, which showed a smaller-than-anticipated decline in crude stocks and another bump up in overall production, giving credence to expectations that supply will increase in coming months. Brent crude futures advanced 38 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $75.83 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 31 cents, or 0.43%, higher at $72.36 per barrel. Brent crude prices have rebounded by over 9% since Dec. 1 on signs Omicron has had only a limited impact on oil demand, after a 16% drop since Nov. 25. "There has been no noticeable slowing effect on oil demand as yet. Even aviation, the sector that should have been hit first, has seen only a marginal decrease in seating capacity." The emergence of the Omicron variant combined with the U.S. decision to release inventories from its strategic reserve to knock the market back on expectations that supply would outweigh demand by the early months of 2022. Ultimately, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, chose to maintain its schedule of boosting supply by 400,000 barrels per day every month - despite fears that the new coronavirus variant would sap demand. U.S. output, meanwhile, rose to 11.7 million barrels per day in the most recent week, though weekly output figures are volatile. The U.S. Energy Department also said gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than anticipated, while crude stocks fell by a mere 240,000 barrels, less than expected. The market was also focused on the resumption of talks between Washington and Tehran over Iran's nuclear programme. Western officials have voiced dismay at sweeping Iranian demands. If U.S. sanctions were eased, it could lead to higher exports of Iranian oil, which could add downward pressure on oil prices. Tensions between Western powers and Russia over Ukraine also remained high after President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday that the West would impose "strong economic and other measures" on Russia if it invades Ukraine, while Putin demanded guarantees that NATO would not expand farther eastward.

Oil Futures Decline Amid Stronger USD, Demand Concerns -- Oil futures nearest delivery settled lower Thursday as risk sentiment turned sour around the omicron variant of the coronavirus and larger-than-expected build on refined fuel stockpiles. Deeming the post-Thanksgiving holiday selloff overdone after early signs suggest that omicron, while more transmittable appears less lethal, oil futures rallied this week through Wednesday. Yet worries over demand persist as mobility and travel restrictions continue in parts of Europe and Asia. On Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration revised lower their forecast for global oil demand for 2022 by 420,000 barrels per day (bpd) from their projection in November to 100.46 million bpd. Risk-on sentiment across markets supported higher prices earlier in the week. EIA data released Wednesday showed U.S. crude oil inventories fell by a smaller-than-expected 240,000 barrels (bbl) in the week ended Dec. 3 to 432.87 million bbl as strengthened refinery demand offset rising production. However, at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub crude stocks rose 2.37 million bbl to a seven-week high 30.92 million bbl. Nationwide gasoline stocks moved 3.88 million bbl higher to 219.3 million bbl, while distillate inventories climbed 2.73 million bbl to 126.6 million bbl. EIA in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects oversupply for next year despite adjusting their expectation for world oil production down 490,000 bpd to 100.93 million bpd, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries this month also projecting a supply surplus in early 2022. OPEC+ earlier this month agreed to move ahead with their 400,000 bpd production increase in January despite the weakening demand outlook, sticking to their July agreement of gradually unwinding production cuts instituted in April 2020, but also said they could adjust that decision if they believe demand will weaken further than projected. Meantime, it remains unclear if resumed talks in Vienna over reviving the JCPOA will yield a deal after the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under the Trump administration. The discussion is taking place through intermediaries, as Tehran has refused to talk directly with U.S. officials, while reportedly hardening its position. Amid concern over slowing demand growth and rising oil production, the backwardated market structures for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures continue to weaken. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows money managers reducing long positions in the oil complex, as the bullish scenario softens. At settlement, January WTI futures fell $1.42 to $70.94 bbl and ICE February Brent fell $1.40 to $74.42 bbl. NYMEX January ULSD futures fell 1.10 cents to $2.2503 gallon, and January RBOB futures fell 2.01 cents to $2.1284 gallon.

Oil settles lower as China developer downgrades add to fears of demand outlook - Oil prices settled lower on Thursday on fears about the economic outlook in the world's biggest oil importer following ratings downgrades to two Chinese property developers, and after some governments took measures to fight the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. Brent crude futures settled down $1.40, or 1.9%, to $74.42 a barrel, backing off a session high of $76.70. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.42, or 2%, at $70.94 after hitting a peak of $73.34. On Thursday, ratings agency Fitch downgraded property developers China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group to "restricted default" status, saying they had defaulted on offshore bonds, while a source said that Kaisa had started work on restructuring its $12 billion offshore debt. The news "exacerbates the Chinese GDP growth fears and ultimately could impact the oil-buying appetite of the world's biggest crude customer," said Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson. On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed tougher COVID-19 restrictions in England, saying people should work from home where possible, wear masks in public places and show COVID-19 vaccine passes for entry to certain events and venues.. Denmark also plans new restrictions, including closure of restaurants, bars and schools, while China has halted group tourist trips from Guangdong. South Korea has registered record infections while cases remain elevated in Singapore and Australia. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level in more than 52 years amid an acute shortage of workers, according to new data published by the U.S. Labor Department. "The oil market doesn't always respond well to good economic news either, because it could prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. Markets were buoyed by comments from BioNTech and Pfizer that a three-shot course of their COVID-19 vaccine could protect against infection from the Omicron variant. The Omicron outbreak sparked a 16% slump in Brent prices from Nov. 25 to Dec. 1. More than half of the drop has been recouped this week, but analysts say a further recovery could be limited until Omicron's impact is clearer. U.S. inventory data released on Wednesday also weighed on prices. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that crude inventories were down by 240,000 barrels last week, much less than analysts in a Reuters poll had expected, with stocks at the Cushing delivery hub in Oklahoma rising by 2.4 million barrels. Fuel stocks also rose by a combined 6.6 million barrels, the data showed.

Oil Futures, Equities Advance Ahead of US Inflation Data -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced in early morning trade Friday, with the front-month West Texas Intermediate contact holding above $71 per barrel (bbl) as investors await the release of key inflation data in the United States that could shed light on the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy in the coming months. Investors are bracing for the highest inflation reading in over forty years. Economists predict the consumer price index slated for release Friday morning to show a 0.7% gain for November, which would translate into a 6.7% increase from a year ago. If the actual figure meets expectations, this will mark the highest year-over-year price increase since 1982. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the central bank needs to be ready to respond to the possibility that inflation might not recede in the second half of next year as most forecasts have expected. The implications for Federal Reserve policy are clear; Chairman Powell's hawkish turn last week, alongside his decision to retire the word "transitory" in terms of inflation pressures, likely means a faster pace of bond purchase tapering from the central bank next week, as well as earlier-than-expected rate hikes. Separately, inventory data released from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed commercial crude oil inventories fell by a smaller-than-expected 240,000 bbl in the week ended Dec. 3 to 432.87 million bbl as strengthened refinery demand offset rising production. However, at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub crude stocks rose 2.37 million bbl to a seven-week high 30.92 million bbl. Nationwide gasoline stocks moved 3.88 million bbl higher to 219.3 million bbl, while distillate inventories climbed 2.73 million bbl to 126.6 million bbl. EIA in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects oversupply for next year despite adjusting their expectation for world oil production down 490,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 100.93 million bpd, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries this month also projecting a supply surplus in early 2022. Oil production is also growing in the U.S., with the EIA on Wednesday reporting the third 100,000 bpd weekly increase in domestic oil output through Dec. 3 to average 11.7 million bpd. That's the greatest weekly production rate since the depths of U.S. lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020. EIA projects U.S. output to average 11.8 million bpd in 2022, climbing to 12.1 million bpd in the fourth quarter. Near 6:45 a.m. ET, January WTI futures gained $0.55 to $71.53 bbl and ICE February Brent added $0.56 to $74.98 bbl. NYMEX January ULSD futures edged 0.36 cents higher to $2.2539 gallon, and January RBOB futures gained to $2.1388 gallon.

WTI Settles Up 8.2% on the Week -- Crude had the strongest week since August on fading omicron fears. Oil set its biggest weekly gain in more than three months as the worst fears over the new virus strain have receded. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 8.2% this week. Fuel consumption so far has escaped any major blows from the omicron variant. Yet confidence is limited. Rallies are still punctuated by selloffs such as that on Thursday after rising infection rates prompted some governments to tighten travel restrictions. “Crude prices are having a good week as omicron jitters have eased and as the 2022 growth outlook for the US economy remains mostly undeterred,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. Oil has seen a remarkable turnaround after tumbling into a bear market on Nov. 30, following a multiweek plunge. But concerns persist over the omicron variant, which one study indicates is 4.2 times more transmissible than the delta strain in its early stages. Some signs of weakness are emerging. Traders are facing the prospect of a weakening physical market for crude in Asia, despite Saudi Arabia’s move to increase oil prices for January. The prompt timespread for global benchmark Brent has also narrowed this week, pointing bearish sentiments. Prices: WTI for January delivery rose 73 cents to settle at $71.67 a barrel in New York Brent for February settlement increased 73 cents to settle at $75.15 a barrel. Many parts of the eastern U.S., including New Jersey and Connecticut, are seeing a rise in hospitalizations. The City of London may be on the verge of becoming a ghost town again after firms started telling thousands of staff to work from home in response to the latest U.K. government guidance. In the U.S., consumer prices rose last month at the fastest annual pace in nearly 40 years, magnifying persistent inflation and with consumers facing the biggest jump in energy bills in more than a decade. The inflation headline numbers continue to add pressure for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.

Oil prices post biggest weekly gain since August (Reuters) -Oil prices rose slightly on Friday and posted their biggest weekly gain since late August, with market sentiment buoyed by easing concerns over the Omicron coronavirus variant's impact on global economic growth and fuel demand. The Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude benchmarks each posted gains of about 8% this week, their first weekly gain in seven, even after a brief bout of profit-taking. Brent futures settled up 73 cents, or 1%, at $75.15 a barrel, after falling 1.9% on Thursday. WTI rose 73 cents, or 1%, to $71.67 after sliding 2% in a volatile session the previous day. "Oil traders are coming out of their shell-shock and feeling more bullish as they recalibrate their demand expectations in the aftermath of the Omicron variation of the coronavirus," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst price futures group in Chicago. U.S. consumer prices rose further in November to produce the largest year-on-year rise since 1982, government data showed, adding to bullish sentiment on oil demand. Earlier in the week the oil market had recovered about half the losses suffered since the Omicron outbreak on Nov. 25, with prices lifted by early studies suggesting that three doses of Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)'s COVID-19 vaccine offers protection against the Omicron variant. "The oil market has thus rightly priced out the 'worst-case scenario' again, but it would be well-advised to leave a certain residual risk to oil demand in place," said Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) analyst Carsten Fritsch. Keeping a lid on prices are faltering domestic air traffic in China, owing to tighter travel restrictions, and weaker consumer confidence after repeated small outbreaks. Ratings agency Fitch downgraded property developers China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group, saying they had defaulted on offshore bonds. That reinforced fears of a potential slowdown in China's property sector, as well as the broader economy of the world's biggest oil importer.

Green hydrogen hub backed by $5 billion of investment planned for the UAE - France's Engie and Abu Dhabi-based renewable energy business Masdar have established a strategic alliance focused on the development of projects related to green hydrogen. In an announcement at the end of last week, the companies said the agreement would "explore the co-development of a UAE-based green hydrogen hub." While fine details of the plan were relatively sparse, the firms will look to develop projects with an electrolyzer capacity of 2 gigawatts. Investment in the initiative will amount to approximately $5 billion. In a statement, Engie CEO Catherine MacGregor described renewable hydrogen as "an essential tool for the energy transition." Engie and Masdar said they would leverage existing infrastructure to "initially target local supply, with the aim of expanding capacity to create a giga-scale green hydrogen hub for the GCC, with the potential to export to other markets." The GCC refers to the Gulf Cooperation Council, which consists of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman. Hydrogen has a diverse range of applications and can be deployed in a wide range of industries. It can be produced in a number of ways. One method includes using electrolysis, with an electric current splitting water into oxygen and hydrogen. If the electricity used in this process comes from a renewable source such as wind or solar then some call it green or renewable hydrogen. A member of oil cartel OPEC, the United Arab Emirates is a significant producer of crude and gas. It's also blessed with huge amounts of sunshine — the crucial ingredient for solar power installations.

Saudi Aramco CEO warns of social unrest if new investment in fossil fuels ends too quickly - Amin Nasser, the chief executive of Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil producer, urged global leaders on Monday to continue investing in planet-warming fossil fuels in the years ahead, arguing that the assumption the world could transition to clean energy "overnight" was "deeply flawed." Nasser, during remarks at the World Petroleum Congress in Houston, Texas, claimed that transitioning to cleaner fuels too rapidly could prompt uncontrolled inflation and social unrest, and ultimately upend nations' emissions targets to curb carbon pollution. "I understand that publicly admitting that oil and gas will play an essential and significant role during the transition and beyond will be hard for some," Nasser said during the conference, which has focused on low-carbon strategies and technology. "But admitting this reality will be far easier than dealing with energy insecurity, rampant inflation and social unrest as the prices become intolerably high, and seeing net-zero commitments by countries start to unravel," he continued. Nasser's remarks come amid mounting pressure on the oil and gas industry to limit exploration and production of fossil fuels and shift to renewable power development, as countries set new carbon emissions reduction targets to battle climate change. The International Energy Agency in May warned that investments in new oil and gas projects must immediately stop in order for the world to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and avoid the worst consequences of climate change. Keeping global temperatures from surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming will require the world to slash greenhouse gas emissions nearly in half within the next decade and reach net-zero emissions by 2050, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The Earth has already warmed about 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and is set to see a temperature rise of 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100. But other world energy leaders at the conference, including the chief executives of Exxon and Chevron, also argued that demand for oil and gas will remain high in upcoming years despite efforts to transition to a clean energy economy.

Iran Nuclear Talks To Resume Thursday As US Complains Tehran 'Demanding More, Concedes Less' -The result of last week's resumption of nuclear talks in Vienna between Iran and signatories to the original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action deal is being described in Western sources as Tehran demanding more from the US while willing to concede less. "More than five months after multilateral nuclear talks with Iran were paused before the country’s presidential elections in June, a new negotiating team arrived in Vienna in late November with additional demands and fewer concessions than its predecessors," NATO's Atlantic Council lamented in an op-ed.Over the weekend Biden administration officials questioned the Iranian side's "seriousness" - suggesting they came to the table unwilling to compromise from the start while demanding the US drop all Trump era sanctions. But on Tuesday Iranian official media announced that Vienna talks will resume Thursday."The date for the resumption of the P4 + 1 talks in Vienna has been finalized," Iran's Tasnim news agency has reported. "Iran, P4 + 1 resume talks in Vienna on Thursday."But despite Iran's willingness to continue the dialogue toward restoration of a deal, White House officials are casting severe doubts on the possibility that something firm can be reached:A US official said Saturday that Iran had backed away from all its previous compromises on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal and that the US would not allow Iran to "slow walk" the international negotiationswhile at the same time ramping up its atomic activities.The warning came a day after Washington hit out at Iran, saying talks with world powers on a return to the 2015 nuclear accord had stalled because Tehran "does not seem to be serious."

In bid to blow up nuclear talks, US imposes sanctions, steals Iranian oil --With Washington deliberately stoking tensions that could trigger all-out military clashes with both Russia and China, there is every indication that it is simultaneously seeking to blow up Iranian nuclear talks, setting the stage for a dangerous new escalation of conflict in the Middle East. On the eve of the resumption of talks in Vienna between Iran and the P4+1 (the four permanent members of the UN Security Council still nominally party to the agreement plus Germany), along with indirect talks between Tehran and Washington, the Biden administration has carried out a series of flagrant provocations. On Tuesday, the US Treasury and State Departments piled on a set of new sanctions against Iranian government entities and officials on the grounds of alleged “human rights” abuses. These come on top of the “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign imposed by the Trump administration in 2018 after it unilaterally abrogated the 2015 Iran nuclear accord. The US sanctions regime amounts to an economic blockade of Iran, targeting countries and companies daring to do business with the nation of over 85 million people and resulting in deepening poverty for the Iranian masses, while severely hindering the country’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has inflicted over 130,000 recorded deaths. The Biden administration has maintained Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign in place, continuing actions against Iran that are tantamount to a state of war. On Wednesday, the US Justice Department announced that it had carried out the “successful forfeiture” of 1.1 million barrels of Iranian petroleum products seized by the US Navy from four tankers bound for Venezuela. Seized in separate acts of US piracy in the Arabian Sea were Iranian weapons, including surface-to-air and anti-tank weapons, allegedly bound for Yemen to aid Houthi rebels in their protracted struggle against the US-backed forces of the Saudi monarchy. The proceeds from the “forfeitures”—court orders allowing the government to sell seized goods—amounted to nearly $27 million, according to the DOJ. Meanwhile, the Pentagon announced that US Defense Secretary Gen. Lloyd Austin (ret.) will meet with his Israeli counterpart Benny Gantz today “to discuss the United States’ commitment to Israel’s security and shared concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear provocations and destabilizing actions in the region.”

The Taliban are courting Iran and China, hoping to avoid blackouts if other countries cut off power to Afghanistan for non-payment The Taliban opened talks with Iran and China over electricity supplies with Afghanistan, a new attempt to stave off the possibility of a frigid winter without power. The state's embattled power company has struggled to repay other countries for imported power, according to reports in the months since the last government fell to the Taliban. Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS), the state power company, has spent the last months under threat of being cut off by Tajikistan, a major supplier. The risk of blackouts from non-payment was first reported by The Wall Street Journal. According to the outlet, the Taliban replaced the former DABS COO with one of its clerics in October, part of a trend of installing officials with little technical experience but strong ideology. Tajikistan is a staunch opponent of the regime, likely complicating the situation. DABS said it has struggled to pull in 26 million afghani ($270,000) in unpaid bills, and set a one-month deadline for companies and individuals to pay before it pursues legal action, local outlet TOLO News reported. On December 1, DABS spokesperson Hikmatullah Noorzaihas also said the company has been in touch with Chinese government-affiliated companies about power production, TOLO said. It came after a mid-November deal between Afghanistan and Iran for 100 megawatts of power, which was also noted by TOLO. It is unclear what terms were discussed for these deals.

Israel Launches Rare Airstrikes On Syrian Port Close To Russian Airbase Shortly after 1am local time Israeli warplanes mounted a large-scale missile strike on Syria's key port of Latakia, igniting large fires as shipping containers were engulfed. International reports underscored that "It was a rare attack on the city's port, a vital facility where much of Syria's imports are brought into the war-torn country." Indeed it was the first such known attack on Latakia's main port throughout the conflict which began over a decade ago. Syrian state TV said at least five explosions were heard, with circulating social media videos from the site showing high-reaching flames. The Israeli government didn't comment in the immediate aftermath, but its media is calling the attack a "gamechanger" in terms of drastically shifting the rules of engagement towards civilian ports. Over the course of prior years, Damascus International Airport has been struck several times. Typically the Israelis claim to be acting against Iranian weapons shipments. Regional Al-Mayadeen media described that "A military source said in a statement to SANA that at around 1.32 a.m. today, the Israeli enemy carried out an air attack with several missiles from the direction of the Mediterranean, southwest of Latakia, targeting the container yard in the commercial port of Latakia."

India's c.bank leaves rates on hold amid Omicron risks (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee kept its key lending rate steady at record lows on Wednesday, as expected, with policymakers looking to gauge the impact of the Omicron coronavirus variant on the economic recovery. The committee held the lending rate, or the repo rate INREPO=ECI , at 4%. The reverse repo rate INRREP=ECI , or the key borrowing rate, was also maintained at 3.35%. All 50 economists polled by Reuters had expected no change in the repo rate and did not expect a change before the second half of 2022. A quarter of 41 respondents surveyed on the reverse repo rate had predicted an increase. "Given the slack in the economy and the ongoing catching up of activity, especially of private consumption, which is still below its pre-pandemic levels, continued policy support is warranted for a durable and broad-based recovery," Governor Shaktikanta Das told a news conference adding that disruptions from the new variant risked slowing the recovery. "Based on an assessment of the macroeconomic situation and outlook, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain the status quo with regard to the policy repo rate and by a majority of these 5-1 to retain the accommodative policy stance." The benchmark 10-year bond yield < IN10YT=RR traded at 6.37%, near the opening level of 6.38% while the Indian rupee INR=IN weakened to 75.45 per dollar after RBI left rates unchanged.

Eighteen coal miners and villagers massacred by Indian army in Nagaland -- Indian Army and paramilitary forces killed 18 civilians, including at least 6 coal miners, in the northeastern state of Nagaland last weekend. The wanton massacre of poor workers and villagers is the direct outcome of the regime of military impunity and terror that has been in force in much of India’s northeast under the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act or AFSPA since 1958. Under the AFSPA, security forces in areas the central government declares “disturbed” have the “right” to shoot and kill anyone they claim is breaking the law or threatening public order, to conduct warrantless searches, and to detain people on mere suspicion. The security forces’ killing spree began late afternoon Saturday, when an Indian Army Special Forces unit ambushed a pick-up truck near Oting, a Nagaland village close to India’s border with Myanmar, that was conveying coal miners to their homes after a day of hard work. Six of the miners died on the spot. Two others were critically wounded. The military would subsequently claim the deaths were the outcome of a case of “mistaken identity” and that they had set up an ambush for separatist insurgents fighting for an independent “Nagalim” based on an “intelligence tipoff.” Neither the military nor India’s far-right Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, which has issued a hollow “apology” for the coal miners’ deaths, questions the military’s right under the AFSPA to use deadly force without warning. In two subsequent shooting incidents both directly tied to the first, the Indian Army killed a further 10 people. Eight of these died on Saturday, while two others succumbed Sunday to gunshot wounds from the previous evening. One of the victims had accompanied a local BJP official who was investigating reports that shots had been fired near Oting. The other nine were part of a large group of Oting villagers who went looking for the coal miners when they did not return from work. These subsequent deaths arose from the Army Special Forces’ attempts to cover up their murder of the coal miners. According to the BJP official and the Oting villagers, when they came upon the slaughter site, military personnel were in the process of removing the corpses and dressing them in khaki-coloured clothes with the intent of claiming their victims were insurgents.

Japan downgrades Q3 GDP on deeper hit to consumer spending(Reuters) - Japan's economy shrank slightly faster than initially reported in the third quarter, as a sharp rise in local COVID-19 cases hit private consumption and a global chip supply shortage hurt corporate sentiment. The deeper contraction is a setback for policymakers hoping easing supply shortages and loosened pandemic curbs would support a recovery in the world's third-largest economy this quarter. Japan's economy declined an annualised 3.6% in July-September, revised Cabinet Office data showed Wednesday, worse than the preliminary reading of a 3.0% contraction. The data, which was worse than economists' median forecast for a 3.1% drop, equals a real quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.9% from the prior quarter, versus a preliminary 0.8% drop. "This confirms that economic conditions were stagnating in the July-September quarter," said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute. "Growth turned negative due to the resurgence of the coronavirus." The faster decline was mainly due to a larger fall in private consumption, which makes up more than half of gross domestic product, and shrank 1.3% from the previous three months, worse than the initial estimate of a 1.1% drop. Consumption fell as bad weather kept shoppers at home and a global chip shortage hit sales of cars and electronics due to production snags, a government official said. "A large contraction in durable goods (spending) indicated that car production cuts had a huge impact," Durable goods spending posted its biggest drop since 1994 when comparable data first became available, the official said, slumping 16.3% quarter-on-quarter and pulling down household consumption by 0.7 percentage points.

COVID-19 spreads through New Zealand schools and childcare centres -In New Zealand, COVID-19 has spread into well over 130 schools and early childhood education centres (ECEs) since the outbreak of the highly infectious Delta variant began in August. The figure was only revealed by the Ministry of Education (MOE) on December 2, with a spokesperson telling the New Zealand Herald that 56 ECEs and 75 schools in Auckland have experienced positive cases among staff or students. The vast majority of affected ECEs and several of the schools have not been publicly named. Not included in the MOE figures are more than 15 affected schools outside of Auckland, including in Bay of Plenty, Waikato, New Plymouth, Rotorua, Northland and Nelson. Every week there are multiple new reports of cases in schools. The trade unions, NZEI Te Riu Roa and the Post-Primary Teachers’ Association, have not published any reports about which schools and ECEs have had cases of coronavirus. While keeping such information from teachers and parents, they have worked closely with the Labour government to enforce its reopening policies. Auckland is the centre of New Zealand’s outbreak, with about 6,000 active cases of COVID-19. There are more than 300 additional cases spread across other parts of the country. Cases have shot up since the Labour Party-led government abandoned its previous elimination strategy more than two months ago, and began to reopen ECEs, schools and businesses in Auckland. On December 3, the New Zealand government lifted what remained of the lockdown in Auckland, allowing all businesses and public buildings to reopen. The MOE’s belatedly released and incomplete figures expose the false claims, made by the government and the media, that reopening education during the outbreak can be done safely. Several news reports quote a standardized email that schools are sending to parents with the reassuring message: “Based on international and local evidence and experience, the risk of COVID-19 transmission within school settings is considered low.” In fact, the evidence shows the exact opposite. Schools are hotbeds for the spread of COVID-19 among children, staff, their families and the wider community, especially under conditions where no one under 12 can be vaccinated.

Billionaires increased wealth by $3.6 trillion in 2020, as millions died from global pandemic - The World Inequality Report 2022, released by the global research initiative World Inequality Lab, found that the COVID-19 pandemic has widened the financial gap between the rich and poor to a degree not seen since the rosy days of world imperialism at the turn of the 20th century. The world’s billionaires enjoyed the steepest increase in their share of wealth last year since the World Inequality Lab began keeping records in 1995, according to the study released Tuesday. Billionaires saw their net worth grow by more than $3.6 trillion in 2020 alone, increasing their share of global wealth to 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, the pandemic has pushed approximately 100 million people into extreme poverty, boosting the global total to 711 million in 2021. “Global inequalities seem to be about as great today as they were at the peak of western imperialism in the early 20th century,” the report said. “Indeed, the share of income presently captured by the poorest half of the world’s people is about half what it was in 1820, before the great divergence between western countries and their colonies.” The report showed the wealthiest 10 percent of the world’s population takes 52 percent of global income, compared to the 8 percent share of the poorest half. On average, an individual in the top decile earns $122,100 (€87,200) per year, while a person from the poorest half of global earners makes $3,920 (€2,800) a year. Global wealth inequality is even more pronounced than income inequality. The poorest half of the world’s population only possess 2 percent of the total wealth. In contrast, the wealthiest 10 percent own 76 percent of all wealth, with $771,300 (€550,900) on average. The ultra-rich have siphoned a disproportionate share of global wealth growth over the last few decades. The top 1 percent took 38 percent of all additional wealth generated since 1995, whereas the bottom 50 percent have only captured 2 percent of it. The wealth of the richest individuals has grown between 6 to 9 percent per year since the mid-1990s, compared to the global 3.2 percent average. Inequality levels vary across the regions. In Europe, the top decile takes about 36 percent of income share, while it holds 58 percent in the Middle East and North Africa. However, inequalities between countries have declined in the last two decades, whereas inequality within “rich” countries has risen sharply. In the United States, the top 1 percent owned 35 percent of the country’s wealth, approaching Gilded Age levels of inequality. This massive accumulation of capital has come at the expense of public wealth over the last four decades. The share of wealth held by public actors is close to zero or negative in “rich” countries, indicating that the totality of wealth is privately owned, a trend exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic.

Hans Kluge says vaccine mandates are 'absolute last resort' - Vaccine mandates should be considered an “absolute last resort,” the World Health Organization’s top Europe official said Tuesday — a day after Big Apple Mayor Bill de Blasio announced tough new rules for all private businesses. WHO Europe director Hans Kluge cautioned that officials should weigh whether mandates will impact public trust before imposing them. “Mandates around vaccination are an absolute last resort and only applicable when all feasible options to improve vaccination uptake have been exhausted,” Kluge told reporters at a press conference. Kluge added that officials should keep in mind that “the effectiveness of mandates is very context-specific.” “What is acceptable in one society and community may not be effective and acceptable in another,” he said. The WHO director stressed the importance of weighing up mandates against potential mental health ramifications.

Why An Open, Transparent, Informed Debate About Mandatory Vaccination Is All But Impossible in the EU -It is time for the EU to start thinking about mandatory vaccination. That was the message issuedlast Wednesday (Dec. 1) by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, as Europe once again becomes ground zero for the Covid-19 pandemic. Austria has already unveiled plans to mandate vaccines for every resident in the country over the age of 12, becoming the first European nation to take such a step. Under the proposed bill, anyone who refuses to get the Covid-19 jab after February 1, 2022, will face a fine of up to €600 every three months.The German government is also considering taking a similar step after it recently imposed tougher restrictions on unvaccinated people in the country. In Greece, which already has some of the highest poverty rates in Europe, authorities have said they will start fining unvaccinated people over the age of 60 €100 for every month they remain unjabbed after January 15. Almost two-thirds of of Greece’s 11-million population is fully vaccinated but more than 520,000 people over 60 still haven’t had the jab.“Greeks over the age of 60… must book their appointment for a first jab by January 16,” the premier said in a statement to the cabinet. “Their vaccination is henceforth compulsory.” Van der Leyen’s proposal to discuss EU-wide mandatory vaccination opens up a huge can of worms. How will the governments of the EU’s 27 member states go about forcing, in most cases, a large minority — and in cases such as Romania and Bulgaria a sizeable majority — of the population to take vaccines against their will that have already proven to be incredibly leaky against the Delta variant? The way things are current looking, the vaccines could well be even less effective against a variant like Omicron, with such a large number of mutations. The overwhelming body of evidence does suggest that the current crop of vaccines do reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death resulting from Covid-19. But is that enough in and of itself to justify obligating virtually an entire continent to take them? What sort of exemptions on medical, ethical or religious grounds will be allowed? What sorts of punishments or privations will be meted out to those who continue to refuse to take the vaccine?

Germany Clamps Down On Unvaccinated, Denies Access To Train Platforms -Unvaccinated Germans are now barred from public transportation, including buses and trains, unless they have a negative test from the last 24 hours or proof of recovery from COVID-19. New “3G” restrictions will also apply to the homeless people who sleep on train platforms to escape the cold, according to the Berliner Zeitung. If the homeless cannot show proof of vaccination, recovery or a negative COVID-19 test from the last 24 hours, they will be removed from train platforms.The government is requiring transportation operators to do random checks to monitor passengers’ compliance, according to the Berliner Zeitung. The new rules, which will take effect in the near future, came out after several other measures to restrict the unvaccinated from participation in public life in Germany, the Berliner Zeitung reported. Those without proof of vaccination or recovery from a recent infection are now barred from much of public life, including bars and restaurants. Olaf Scholz, the next chancellor of Germany, seeks to make vaccinations mandatory throughout Germany, The New York Times reported. The country has reportedly seen daily averages of around 60,000 new COVID-19 cases.

‘Rife’ cocaine use reported in U.K. Parliament — just as Boris Johnson announces crackdown on drug crime — The speaker of the House of Commons has said he is calling in police to investigate reports that drug use is “rife” in the British Parliament — as Prime Minister Boris Johnson dressed up as a police officer to promote his tough new anti-drug strategy for the country. A report in Britain’s Sunday Times said a dozen sites inside the Palace of Westminster, which includes the House of Lords and House of Commons, tested positive for traces of cocaine. Areas of interest included the bathrooms nearest Johnson’s office and those of Home Secretary Priti Patel, who is in charge of domestic security. Drug residue, the newspaper reported, was also found close to rooms used by the opposition Labour Party, as well as a sedate dining room in the House of Lords, and the exclusive, sometimes raucous Thames-side pub called the Strangers’ Bar. The paper reported that cannabis was also “being used openly” within the vicinity. Of 12 bathrooms tested for drugs with detection wipes, cocaine was reportedly found in 11 of the locations, including places that can be best accessed only by those with a designated parliamentary pass, including lawmakers and staffers, alongside clerks, librarians, security personnel, waiters and journalists. Different passes allow different levels of access to halls, bars, committee rooms and cubbyholes within the Victorian-age premises. “The accounts of drug misuse in parliament given to the Sunday Times are deeply concerning,” Lindsay Hoyle, House speaker, told Sky News on Sunday. “I will be raising them as a priority with the Metropolitan Police next week.” The Metropolitan Police service did not immediately return a request for comment.

U.K. expects to recover up to $2.7 billion of COVID loan fraud -- U.K. authorities expect to recover as much as 2 billion pounds ($2.7 billion) of fraudulent COVID loans over the next year, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said on Tuesday. Sunak was challenged in the House of Commons by his opposite number in the Labour Party, Rachel Reeves, who slammed “the incompetent way in which the business support schemes” were structured during the pandemic, allowing fraudsters to “walk away with 6.5 billion pounds of taxpayers’ money.” “We are absolutely committed to tackling fraud wherever we see it,” Sunak replied, adding that the number cited by Reeves had been revised down by a third. A new taxpayer protection task force is “expected to recover between 1 and 2 billion pounds over the next 12 months and has already made a good start on that,” he said.

School 'makes pupils eat lunch outside in freezing cold' to prevent spread of Covid --Fuming parents have branded a school 'disgusting' after discovering their children are being asked to eat their lunch outside in the 'freezing cold' in a bid to prevent the spread of coronavirus. Bulwell Academy in Nottingham said the measure is part of its anti-Covid strategy and is designed to create more space between pupils and therefore lower the risk of virus transmission. But parents claim there are not enough seats for all the pupils and that the benches are soaking wet, insisting classrooms or other indoor spaces be used instead. Hitting back at the complaints, the academy said most students in Years 7 and 8 'preferred to be outside' anyway, and that a school hall was available to the latter year group if they wanted to eat indoors. It comes after the Academy - once described as an 'army camp' - previously came under fire for asking pupils to produce a doctor's note if they wanted to go to the toilet during lesson time. One parent, who asked not to be named, said: 'It's freezing cold and they're stood outside eating their lunch. Bulwell Academy in Nottingham (pictured) said the measure is part of its anti-Covid strategy and is designed to create more space between pupils and therefore lower the risk of virus transmission'It's absolutely disgusting, there's not enough seats for them either.'I've tried speaking to the school... They should at least have a classroom to sit in and eat... I was so frustrated.'Another parent, who also didn't want to be named, said the school needed to do more. She said: 'I'm not happy at all, my daughter came in wet through yesterday.

BoJo Unveils “Plan B” Restrictions As Omicron Cases Top 500 While Deaths Linger At Zero -Since the start of the pandemic, we have cautioned readers to look past what political leaders are saying about lockdowns and vaccine mandates intended to "keep us safe", and focus more on ulterior motives, like pushing the Fed to monetize mountains of debt to keep the market-sustaining money tap open. Like with every other major decision, it's important to ask oneself: Cui bono - who benefits? With that in mind, UK PM Boris Johnson is facing bitter criticism from Britons after he allegedly rushed the announcement of England's "Plan B" - BoJo's more restrictive version of President Biden's "winter plan" - allegedly to try and distract from a national scandal caused by leaked footage of a 10 Downing Street Christmas Party held last winter, when holiday parties were expressly forbidden by COVID lockdown rules. The FT, which broke the news of BoJo's "Plan B" plans, described the impending announcement as a "dead cat" - that is, something done to draw attention away from a much bigger scandal. One said the move to Plan B — much earlier than expected — was a “dead cat” move by Johnson to distract attention from the furore over a leaked video of a mock Downing Street press conference showing staff laughing about the party, which breached Covid-19 rules.The new restrictions - intended to try and stop the spread of omicron - are expected to be announced at a press conference as early as Wednesday, with the new measures put before parliament on Thursday.BoJo held a press conference Wednesday evening at 10 Downing Street in the UK where he laid out his his plans for adopting "Plan B" restrictions in England (to fight the omicron variant, which government advisors have warned him could overtake delta as the UK's dominant strain by Christmas).The PM started by insisting "we have to act on the data."The only problem with this is that there isn't any data to act on when it comes to omicron. Only 568 cases have been confirmed in the UK so far, and it's not like the UK's government advisors haven't been wrong before. Though the PM did concede that the actual number of omicron cases is much higherAs for 'Plan B', the prime minister announced that face masks would be mandatory in theaters and cinemas starting Friday, while vaccine passports will be required for anybody trying to enter a club, a large sporting event or a concert. Restaurants and pubs will remain exempt from the new mask wearing rules. To qualify for the passport, people will need to have received at least two jabs.BoJo also asked that all Britons who are able should return to working from home starting Monday.So far, omicron hasn't put a single Briton in the hospital, nor has it contributed to any (confirmed) deaths.