Fed Chair Powell: "Factors pushing inflation upward will linger well into next year" - From Fed Chair Powell's prepared testimony: Coronavirus and CARES Act, Excerpt on inflation: Most forecasters, including at the Fed, continue to expect that inflation will move down significantly over the next year as supply and demand imbalances abate. It is difficult to predict the persistence and effects of supply constraints, but it now appears that factors pushing inflation upward will linger well into next year. In addition, with the rapid improvement in the labor market, slack is diminishing, and wages are rising at a brisk pace. And on the new COVID variant: The recent rise in COVID-19 cases and the emergence of the Omicron variant pose downside risks to employment and economic activity and increased uncertainty for inflation. Greater concerns about the virus could reduce people's willingness to work in person, which would slow progress in the labor market and intensify supply-chain disruptions.Powell will provide his testimony tomorrow at 10AM ET: Coronavirus and CARES Act, Before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.
Fed Chair Powell Delivers the Perfect Storm to a $54 Trillion Bubble Stock Market: A Pivot to Inflation Hawk and Removal of the Punchbowl - By Pam Martens -- Fed Chair Jerome Powell along with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appeared before the Senate Banking Committee yesterday to deliver their semi-annual reports.Approximately 34 minutes into the hearing, in response to a question from Senator Pat Toomey, Republican from Pennsylvania, Powell announced that he was retiring the word “transitory” to describe the inflationary forces that have a grip on prices in the U.S.The stock market interpreted this to mean that Powell, who just eight days prior had become Democrat President Joe Biden’s nominee for another four years at the helm of the Fed, was now pivoting to cater to Republican inflation hawks in order to win their votes at his upcoming confirmation hearing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average quickly did a bungee dive of 402 points.About 90 minutes into the hearing, the stock market went into a new wave of selling following Powell’s answer to an insult and question from Republican Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana. Kennedy said this:“I realize that no one is clairvoyant but I think it’s fair to say that the experts who have been advising you about the future rate of inflation have pretty much the same credibility as those late-night psychic hotlines that you see on TV. Is the Fed considering increasing the pace of its tapering? We’ve got to get control of inflation. It’s ravaging our people.”By “increasing the pace of tapering,” Kennedy was asking if Powell might further reduce the $120 billion a month the Fed has been buying up in U.S. Treasury securities and agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). The Fed calls that punchbowl to Wall Street “Quantitative Easing,” which helps the Fed keep short term interest rates in the zero-bound range. The Fed had announced on November 3 that it would reduce the amount of its Treasury security purchases by $10 billion each month and reduce MBS by $5 billion each month. At that rate, its punchbowl to Wall Street would continue until next June, albeit at depleted levels each month.Powell responded to Kennedy as follows:“I think what we missed about inflation – we didn’t predict the supply-side problems. And those are highly unusual and very difficult, very non-linear. It’s really hard to predict those things. But that’s really what we missed and that’s why all of the professional forecasters had much lower inflation projections.“You asked about the taper and so, yes, as I mentioned earlier, since the last meeting we’ve seen basically elevated inflation pressures; we’ve seen very strong labor market data without any improvement in labor supply; and we’ve seen strong spending data too. And remembering that every dollar of [bond asset purchases by the Fed] does increase accommodation, we now look at an economy that’s very strong and inflationary pressures that are high, and that means it’s appropriate I think for us to discuss at our next meeting – which is in a couple weeks – whether it will be appropriate to wrap up our purchases a few months earlier…”The Dow sold off further on those remarks from Powell, leaving the Dow index down 652 points at the closing bell.
Massive inflation will likely push Fed to hike rates six times before 2024: Federated Hermes - A long-time market bull is tempering his outlook due to inflation.Federated Hermes' Phil Orlando expects the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates six times over the next two years to tame massive price increases from vehicles to shelter to food."Our best guess is that we will see two quarter point rate hikes out of the Fed in the second half of next year, and perhaps another four quarter point rate hikes over the course of calendar '23," the firm's chief equity strategist told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday. Orlando, whose has $634 billion in assets under management, is concerned about the latest inflation numbers. Both personal consumption expenditures and CPI are accelerating at their fast paces in three decades. The Commerce Department reported last week prices for personal consumption expenditures or Core PCE increased 4.1% in October from a year ago. The inflation gauge, which is most relied on by the Fed, does not include food and energy.\The consumer price index or CPI also rose rapidly in October. The Labor Department's index, which tracks what consumers pay for goods, includes food and energy. "Given the surge in inflation that we've been seeing lately, it wouldn't surprise me frankly if the Fed accelerated that pace of tapering," he said. "Once the tapering is done, we'd expect to see some rate increases." That's what could take Wall Street by surprise, according to Orlando. "The Fed has been, I think to some degree, talking a good game along with the Biden administration in terms of the temporary or transitory of inflation," he said. Yet, Orlando believes the Fed comprehends the problem's magnitude. He cites the decision to begin tapering this month. "They're going to remove accommodation at a reasonable pace over the next two years or so in order to try to get their hands around inflation and see if they can get that genie stuff back into the bottle," he said.
Banking chair wants to expedite Powell, Brainard confirmations --The Senate Banking Committee is considering hearings as early as December on the nominations of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for a second term as leader of the nation’s central bank and the elevation of Fed Gov. Lael Brainard to become vice chair. Sherrod Brown, the panel’s chairman and an Ohio Democrat, said he wants to move quickly on confirming both Fed policymakers, although the exact timing of their hearings isn’t set. Brown said he’d comply with a rule that confirmation hearings come at least two weeks after the White House sends the Senate paperwork formalizing them as President Biden’s selections. Brown added that he expects the paperwork this week and expressed confidence that both Powell and Brainard would be confirmed by the full Senate, which is now split 50-50 between both parties.
Cordray emerges as contender for Fed supervision post: Report - — Richard Cordray has emerged as a leading candidate to be the Federal Reserve’s top bank regulator, according to a media report. Cordray, who led the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau from 2013 to 2017, is under consideration to lead the Fed’s bank oversight practice as vice chair of supervision, according to a report published by The Wall Street Journal Tuesday morning. Currently serving as a senior official in the Department of Education overseeing the federal government’s student loan program, Cordray became the first Senate-confirmed official to lead the CFPB in 2013, by a vote of 66-34, including 12 Senate Republicans.
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity grew at a modest to moderate pace" --- Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago based on information collected on or before November 19, 2021." excerpts: Economic activity grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Federal Reserve Districts during October and early November. Several Districts noted that despite strong demand, growth was constrained by supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Consumer spending increased modestly; low inventories held back sales of some items, notably light vehicles. Leisure and hospitality activity picked up in most Districts as the spread of the Delta variant ebbed in many areas. Construction activity generally increased but was held back by scarce materials and labor. Nonresidential real estate activity increased widely, while residential real estate activity grew in some Districts but declined in others. Manufacturing growth was solid across Districts, though materials and labor shortages limited expansion. High freight volumes continued to strain distribution systems. Energy activity was generally higher, growth in professional and business services varied widely, and demand for education and health services was largely unchanged. Loan demand increased in almost all Districts, though some reported declines in residential mortgages. Agriculture saw improved financial conditions overall and rising land values. The outlook for overall activity remained positive in most Districts, but some noted uncertainty about when supply chain and labor supply challenges would ease....Employment growth ranged from modest to strong across Federal Reserve Districts. Contacts reported robust demand for labor but persistent difficulty in hiring and retaining employees. Leisure and hospitality and manufacturing contacts reported an uptick in employment, but many were still limiting operating hours due to a lack of workers. Contacts in several other sectors also noted labor-related constraints on meeting demand. Childcare, retirements, and COVID safety concerns were widely cited as sources that limited labor supply. Many Districts noted concerns that the federal vaccination mandate could exacerbate existing hiring difficulties. Nearly all Districts reported robust wage growth. Hiring struggles and elevated turnover rates led businesses to raise wages and offer other incentives, such as bonuses and more flexible working arrangements.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 28th. The 7-day average is down 12.1% from the same day in 2019 (87.9% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for the last four months (with some ups and downs) - but picked up recently, especially over the Thanksgiving holiday week. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through November 27, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. The 7-day average for the US is down 4% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 25th. Movie ticket sales were at $127 million last week, down about 53% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through November 13th. The occupancy rate was down 4.0% compared to the same week in 2019. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of November 19th, gasoline supplied was up 1.4% compared to the same week in 2019. There was the tenth week this year that gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - so consumption is running close to 2019 levels now. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through November 24th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 114% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but data on New York subway usage is down sharply (next graph). This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).Manhattan is at about 35% of normal.This data is through Friday, November 26th.
Business Cycle Indicators as of December 1st – Menzie Chinn - Monthly GDP grows 1.5% m/m, pushed by exports. Along with current expectations for this Friday’s employment release, we have the following picture. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for NFP as of 12/1 (blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (12/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.We now have October observations for five of six indicators tracked. This picture suggests that through October, economic activity was starting to accelerate. However, all these data predates the information regarding the omicron variant (even the Michigan sentiment index discussed in this post).
Coronavirus variant raises fresh concerns for economy -The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant is raising fresh uncertainty for the U.S. economy, even as President Biden vows that the country will not see more lockdowns.After wading through a summer surge in cases driven by the delta variant, the U.S. is now bracing for the arrival of omicron, a strain identified by the World Health Organization last week as a “variant of concern.”Health experts say that while the new variant appears to be more infectious than previous strains, they are not sure yet how dangerous it might be or how it’ll fare against vaccine-created antibodies compared to previous variants.“It seems more contagious or transmissible than delta and it has several mutations. Other than that, we really don’t know most things about it,” said Julia Raifman, assistant professor at the Boston University School of Public Health.Still, officials and experts are emphasizing the need to take precautions to slow the spread of the virus, especially as the winter months approach and people spend time together indoors, where the disease can more easily spread. “We know that reducing the amount of air that people share reduces COVID transmission and so the best way to do that while still allowing us to be around one another is for everyone to wear masks,” Raifman said.Biden on Monday said he would not recommend any “lockdowns” or other limits on public gatherings. In a speech, Biden said the omicron variant was a cause for “concern, but not a cause for panic.”“We have the best vaccine in the world, the best medicines, the best scientists, and we’re learning more every single day. And we’ll fight this variant with scientific and knowledgeable actions and speed. Not chaos and confusion,” Biden said. While the Biden administration is not expected to push for any nationwide lockdowns, persistently higher cases and hospitalizations could still suppress the economy even if local governments don’t impose new restrictions.“It just depends on how serious [the variant] is and how different it is — what new risks it poses — and I just don’t think we have a handle on that,” said Aaron Sojourner, economics professor at the University of Minnesota. “If [omicron] breaks through at a higher rate or has worse effects if it breaks through, then I think we could see people react and withdraw,” Sojourner said.
Why Do We Need a 24/7 Economy? - In mid-October, President Biden announced that the Port of Los Angeles would begin operating 24 hours a day, seven days a week, joining the nearby Port of Long Beach, which had been doing so since September. The move followed weeks of White House negotiations with the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, as well as shippers like UPS and FedEx, and major retailers like Walmart and Target.The purpose of expanding port hours, according to the New York Times, was “to relieve growing backlogs in the global supply chains that deliver critical goods to the United States.” Reading this, you might be forgiven for imagining that an array of crucial items like medicines or their ingredients or face masks and other personal protective equipment had been languishing in shipping containers anchored off the West Coast. You might also be forgiven for imagining that workers, too lazy for the moment at hand, had chosen a good night’s sleep over the vital business of unloading such goods from boats lined up in their dozens offshore onto trucks, and getting them into the hands of the Americans desperately in need of them. Reading further, however, you’d learn that those “critical goods” are actually things like “exercise bikes, laptops, toys, [and] patio furniture.”Fair enough. After all, as my city, San Francisco, enters what’s likely to be yet another almost rainless winter on a planet in ever more trouble, I can imagine my desire for patio furniture rising to a critical level. So, I’m relieved to know that dock workers will now be laboring through the night at the command of the president of the United States to guarantee that my needs are met. To be sure, shortages of at least somewhat more important items are indeed rising, including disposable diapers and the aluminum necessary for packaging some pharmaceuticals. Still, amajor focus in the media has been on the specter of “slim pickings this Christmas and Hanukkah.” Providing “critical” yard furnishings is not the only reason the administration needs to unkink the supply chain. It’s also considered an anti-inflation measure (if an ineffective one). At the end of October, the Consumer Price Index had jumped 6.2% over the same period in 2020, the highest inflation rate in three decades. Such a rise is often described as the result of too much money chasing too few goods. One explanation for the current rise in prices is that, during the worst months of the pandemic, many Americans actually saved money, which they’re now eager to spend. When the things people want to buy are in short supply — perhaps even stuck on container ships off Long Beach and Los Angeles — the price of those that are available naturally rises. However, running West Coast ports 24/7 won’t solve the supply-chain problem, not when there aren’t enough truckers to carry that critical patio furniture to Home Depot. The shortage of such drivers arises because there’s more demand than ever before, and because many truckers have simply quit the industry. As the New York Times reports, “Long hours and uncomfortable working conditions are leading to a shortage of truck drivers, which has compounded shipping delays in the United States.”
Yellen: Omicron 'could cause significant problems' for global economy - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the omicron coronavirus variant “could cause significant problems” for the global economy. "Hopefully it's not something that's going to slow economic growth significantly," Yellen said at the Reuters Next conference on Thursday, Reuters reported. "There's a lot of uncertainty, but it could cause significant problems. We're still evaluating that." Global markets tanked after detection of the omicron variant was announced last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 900 points. The new variant, which has already led some countries to impose international travel bans, could make supply chain issues and inflation worse, according to Yellen. However, it could also slow the growth of the U.S. economy, which would ease some pressures on inflation, Yellen noted. Yellen said the rise in inflation stems largely from the coronavirus pandemic and “somewhat” from President Biden’s American Rescue Plan, according to Reuters. Omicron cases have been detected in multiple U.S. states on Wednesday and Thursday, spurring conversation about new coronavirus restrictions. President Biden has signaled that he does not plan to call for any closures or restrictions on businesses, schools or other in-person gatherings in response to the new variant. “We are going to fight COVID-19 not with shutdowns or lockdowns — but with more widespread vaccinations, boosters, testing and more. We will beat it back with science and speed, not chaos and confusion — just as we did in the spring and again with the more powerful delta variant in the summer and fall,” Biden wrote in an op-ed Thursday.
Congress in for dramatic December, with drastic deadlines from debt limit to defense -- Members of Congress are returning from Thanksgiving with a raft of urgent deadlines and major issues in front of them – including two bills to avert economic crisis and the biggest piece of President Biden's economic agenda. The government shutdown deadline is the most immediate deadline Congress faces but also is likely the easiest hurdle to clear. Government funding expires on Dec. 3, which is Friday, meaning that Congress will have to pass a continuing resolution before then to keep the government funded. The consequences of this failing will be the same as past shutdowns – federal workers will be furloughed and government services cut until Congress can get a funding bill to Biden's desk. Democrats in both chambers – and Republicans in the Senate – broadly supported the last continuing resolution in September and are expected to do so again. There could be some political grandstanding, however, like when "Squad" members in the House blocked Iron Dome missile funding for Israel in the last continuing resolution, but congressional leaders are likely to find a way to overcome that. The debt ceiling battle has the highest stakes of any issue Congress faces in December, as a debt default would likely lead to catastrophic economic consequences. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the government has the money to cover its expenses until Dec. 15. It is possible she may be able to stretch that timeline even longer, but it is not clear by how much. Republicans demanded earlier this fall that Democrats pass a debt ceiling hike on their own, with no GOP votes. This would require them to use the reconciliation process in the Senate, which Republicans argued was fair because Democrats are using the same process to avoid a filibuster and pass their massive spending bill on party lines. Democrats staunchly opposed this, demanding a bipartisan vote. But as Congress marched to a potential government shutdown with Democrats refusing to cave, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., changed his stance and found some Republican votes to raise the debt ceiling. He swore Republicans would not help Democrats raise the debt limit again. "This will moot Democrats’ excuses about the time crunch they created and give the unified Democratic government more than enough time to pass standalone debt limit legislation through reconciliation," McConnell said in a statement in October. He added: "If Democrats abandon their efforts to ram through another historically reckless taxing and spending spree that will hurt families and help China, a more traditional bipartisan governing conversation could be possible." Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., meanwhile, hasn't budged from his stance that any debt limit increase should have 60 bipartisan votes in the Senate. McConnell's office says it has no updates on debt ceiling talks. Some Republicans say they are willing to make the reconciliation process to raise the debt limit easy for Democrats. And McConnell has refrained from too many bombastic statements on the debt limit in recent months. But other Republicans are not happy with how McConnell handled the debt limit issue the last time, making it unclear whether the minority leader has the votes pass a debt limit bill if he decided to change his stance again.
'Game of chicken': Debt ceiling standoff threatens state spending - A high-stakes debt ceiling standoff in Washington could have spillover effects on state spending plans that rely heavily on federal aid to fund a variety of social programs and transportation projects.States across the country are dependent on a steady flow of cash from the federal government to supplement their own tax revenue, but that pipeline of financial assistance is at risk amid a looming deadline for Congress to avoid the nation’s first default.Policy experts say failing to suspend or raise the debt limit could disrupt spending at the state level, particularly with regard to the recently enacted $1.2 trillion infrastructure law.“The fact that places are in better fiscal shape than they were expecting to be in makes the direct effects a little less imminent, but it will have big effects if places are trying to think about using any of that infrastructure money” or money earmarked for social services, said Kim Rueben, who specializes in state and local government financing at the Washington-based Urban Institute.“And so partly we're playing this game of chicken with what feels like a nuclear bomb,” Rueben said. “We really need the debt limit cap to be increased because of what it is going to broadly do for the economy — [a default] could have a negative effect on state and local governments, but it can also upset all sorts of other financial markets and banking.”The federal government provides about $750 billion in annual aid to states, funding programs ranging from Medicaid, which covers about 75 million Americans, to food stamps, used by about 42 million households. It also includes funding for schools, roads, transportation and various housing programs for low-income families.Many of the states that rely the most on federal funding — over 40 percent — are Republican-led states such as Alaska, Louisiana, Mississippi and Montana, largely due to low tax rates. Some Democratic-led states also get a significant chunk of federal dollars: About 36 percent of New York’s budget comes from federal aid, while California sees about 30 percent of its budget supported by Washington.“Every state relies on federal funding for a pretty good portion of their budget,” said Rebecca Thiess, a state policy expert with Pew Charitable Trusts. “Since the Great Recession, federal funding has remained essentially a third of state budgets. So if you think about where states get their money from — it's from taxes, it's from fees, local funds, service charges — but then the federal government has this important role.”
No deal in sight as Congress nears debt limit deadline - Congress is only a couple of weeks away from hitting the Dec. 15 deadline to raise the federal debt limit, and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) don’t appear to be anywhere close to a deal. Democrats insist that Schumer will not burn up a week of Senate floor time to use the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt limit with only Democratic votes. And Republicans say there’s no way that McConnell will be able to round up 10 Republican votes to quash an expected filibuster from conservatives such as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and allow Democrats to pass debt limit legislation with a simple majority under regular order. At the same time, both leaders want to avoid another standoff that could threaten the nation’s credit rating and have stepped back from the combative rhetoric they were using in September and early October. McConnell walked over to Schumer’s office on Nov. 18 for their first in-person sit-down meeting since Democrats took over the Senate in January. Afterward he told reporters: “We agree to kind of keep talking, working together to try to get somewhere.” But the big problem, according to senators and Senate aides, is that there aren’t any easy ways forward. Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) has proposed that Democrats use the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt limit, in which case Republicans would “yield back time and not drag it out” so that it could be done in a few days. The problem with this option is that it would require two long series of votes on amendments — known as vote-a-ramas — to first amend the 2022 budget resolution to establish a new reconciliation instruction and then to pass the vehicle that would raise the debt limit. Expediting the process or skipping one or both of the vote-a-ramas would require getting unanimous consent from all 100 senators. There’s no certainty that conservatives such as Cruz, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) or Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) would allow Democrats to move quickly when their next step would be to try to pass the $2 trillion Build Back Better Act before Christmas. Another option would be for McConnell to let Democrats advance long-term legislation under regular order but insist the measure raise the debt limit to a specific number instead of merely postpone it until after the 2022 midterm elections. A big reason Republicans want Schumer to use the budget reconciliation process is that it would force vulnerable Democrats such as Sens. Raphael Warnock (Ga.) and Mark Kelly (Ariz.) to vote on a higher debt number instead of a suspension of the debt ceiling to a later date. The benefit to Schumer is that it would allow him to avoid using the time-consuming budget reconciliation process and it would fulfill his demand that the debt limit be raised on a bipartisan basis because Republicans would have to agree to let the Senate proceed to a final up-or-down vote. The potential pitfall with this second option is that Cruz, Paul or Lee — or any other conservative — could object to a request to let the debt limit bill proceed to final passage. That means it would fall to McConnell again to round up 10 GOP votes to get the measure over a 60-vote procedural threshold. \ When 11 Republican senators, including McConnell, did so in October, it prompted an angry backlash, including from former President Trump, who accused Senate GOP leaders of giving up leverage to stop President Biden’s agenda. “I think McConnell and Republicans really have to dig in and get something for it. They can’t just let it go after what happened in the last go-around. McConnell is already getting criticized quite a bit for caving the last time on the debt limit,” said Brian Darling, a Republican strategist and former Senate aide. “If he doesn’t leverage something on spending out of Democrats, especially when we’re looking at the Build Back Better bill possibly passing the Senate in some form, it’s going to be embarrassing,” he added.
Manchin indicates 'pathway' to resolve debt ceiling standoff — Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., suggested Monday that there is a path forward to vote on the debt ceiling and avoid what would be the country's first ever default."I understand there was an agreement from the Republicans to do a very quick reconciliation by itself for the debt ceiling only," Manchin told reporters, referring to the ability to pass legislation with a simple majority in the Senate instead of the 60 votes typically needed."I think that's our responsibility, to make sure that we take care of the debt ceiling. Democrats are now in control, so we want to make sure we do it and do it right," he said. "That pathway has been given. I don't know what's going to be done, but that pathway has been given."Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., have been holding discussions about resolving the debt ceiling. NBC News has reached out to both of their offices for comment.Asked later in the day about a potential deal, Manchin said: "No details. We're negotiating."Schumer told reporters separately: "Hopefully we can come to an agreement to get this done."The clock is ticking on raising or suspending the federal debt limit. The Treasury Department has said the government might not be able to meet its financial obligations after Dec. 15."America must pay its bills on time and in full," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in remarks prepared for delivery Tuesday, when she will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. "If we do not, we will eviscerate our current recovery."Congress has a packed agenda before the end of the year, from funding the government and passing a massive defense policy bill to averting a debt default.The debt limit was raised last month on a short-term basis after a bitter partisan standoff. Democrats had insisted on broad GOP support, citing Democratic backing in previous debt ceiling votes during Republican administrations, but only a handful of Senate Republicans allowed the vote to go forward.It is not yet clear whether Democrats will lift the debt ceiling on their own, through a vote separate from President Joe Biden's $1.7 trillion Build Back Better bill, or whether will get some GOP support.
Trump: McConnell must use debt limit to crush Biden agenda - Former President Trump on Tuesday urged Senate Republicans to use the federal debt limit as leverage to defeat President Biden’s social spending and climate bill. In a Tuesday statement, Trump berated Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and insisted he should prevent Democrats from raising the federal debt ceiling by any means necessary. “Old Crow Mitch McConnell, who is getting beaten on every front by the Radical Left Democrats since giving them a two-month delay which allowed them to 'get their act together,' must be fully prepared to use the DEBT CEILING in order to totally kill the Democrat’s new Social Spending (Wasting!) Bill, which will change our Country forever,” Trump said. Trump has fiercely criticized McConnell for weeks after the minority leader cut a deal with Senate Democrats in October to raise the federal debt limit. His latest barb comes as McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) hold discussions over another deal to avert a default by the end of the month. With days until the U.S. was expected to default, McConnell and 10 other GOP senators voted to break a filibuster on a bill to raise the debt ceiling by $480 billion. That vote allowed Democrats to pass the measure along party lines with a tiebreaking vote from Vice President Harris. Trump and several GOP senators have ripped McConnell for blinking after Republicans vowed for months to block any Democratic attempt to raise the federal debt limit. While both parties previously voted against debt ceiling hikes over politics, the Senate GOP’s recent refusal to allow a vote under regular order on a debt limit increase is unprecedented. Trump has also expressed fury with Republicans who backed a bipartisan infrastructure bill under Biden after the former president repeatedly failed to strike such an agreement during his term. “Mitch and the Republican Senators had them beaten, but didn’t know it, and we ended up with the Unfrastructure Bill, which is only 11% infrastructure. Worse, he allowed a splitting of the Bills (with 19 votes, including himself), which makes the Dems path for the even worse Bill a much easier one,” Trump said. “Use the Debt Ceiling, Mitch, show strength and courage. Our Country is being destroyed,” he added. McConnell and Senate Republicans have insisted that Democrats must raise the debt ceiling on their own through budget reconciliation, the process Democrats plan to use to pass Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan. Republicans have tied their refusal to raise the debt ceiling to the Democratic proposal, which would add less to the deficit than the bipartisan infrastructure bill supported by 19 GOP senators. Democrats can raise the debt ceiling over GOP objections by passing a budget reconciliation resolution, which can pass with only simple majorities in each chamber. To do so, Democrats would have to raise the debt ceiling to a specific number — instead of suspending it until a future date — and face a marathon of politically and legislatively tricky votes. Budget experts say it would take Democrats about two weeks to raise the debt ceiling through reconciliation, and doing so would still allow the party to pass Biden’s bill along party lines through a separate measure. But Senate Democrats have refused to do so, saying it would take too much time and set a dangerous precedent for future standoffs. Schumer and McConnell have said little about their debt ceiling discussions but are believed to be talking about ways to expedite raising the limit through reconciliation or another short-term deal to avert a default. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers last week that the U.S. is unlikely to default before Dec. 15 but could miss debt payments for the first time in history by the end of the month without action to raise the debt ceiling. Experts warn that a U.S. debt default would trigger a domestic recession and cause chaos in global financial markets given the U.S. dollar’s importance to world commerce.
Even Trump-aligned lawmakers are resisting his advice on the debt ceiling - Donald Trump is ready to go nuclear over the debt limit fight.In multiple statements in recent weeks, the former president told his allies to stop at nothing when it comes to using the debt limit as leverage to block the centerpiece of President Biden’s domestic agenda, the Build Back Better Act.Trump has even suggested that a government default – which experts say could tip the U.S. economy into a recession – is preferable to a Biden legislative win. He wrote on his website that Republicans should use the debt negotiations as their “Trump Card” and “[p]lay it and mean it, because the debt ceiling is far less destructive than the [Build Back Better] bill that [Democrats] will otherwise successfully pass.” Yahoo Finance surveyed dozens of Trump-aligned lawmakers in Congress and few of the respondents jumped at the chance to say they're taking the former president’s tactical advice.“Well, let me start by saying I did not know what the Trump Card was until today,” Rep. Pete Sessions (R., Texas) said in an interview this week. “I try and have my views be my views,” he said. Sessions voted with Trump 97.9% of the time in recent years, according to one calculation, including the Jan. 6 vote to overturn the 2020 election.Former President Donald Trump during an October rally in Iowa. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)His position is echoed by many moderate and conservative GOP voices in that he won’t be voting for any debt limit increase, but also wouldn’t commit to taking the further step – urged by Trump – and do everything he can to block Democratic efforts. Democrats need to “take responsibility for their policies,” Sessions said.Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas), as another example, recently said on the Senate floor that Democrats will have to raise the debt ceiling on their own to avoid a “financial crisis.”The U.S. could default on Dec. 15 or in the weeks that follow, missing payments for the first time in history. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently told lawmakers, “we will eviscerate our current recovery” if the issue is left unaddressed. Experts warn that a debt default could cause the stock market to plummet, trigger a recession, and cause chaos in global financial markets. Raising the debt ceiling does not directly impact future spending, rather it allows the Treasury to pay for previously approved spending.
House sets up Senate shutdown showdown | TheHill -The House on Thursday voted to pass a short-term spending bill to fund the government through mid-February, as lawmakers work quickly to avert a shutdown on Friday. The House voted 221-212 to pass the continuing resolution, which would allow the government to remain funded at the previous year's fiscal levels through Feb. 18 until lawmakers clinch a deal on a larger, bipartisan deal. Only one Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.) supported the bill, which now goes to the Senate. A number of conservative GOP lawmakers have sought to tie the legislation to a push to defund President Biden’s COVID-19 vaccinate-or-test mandate for large employers. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif) criticized the Republican-led push ahead of the vote on Thursday afternoon, claiming those behind the effort wanted to shut down “science.” "How do they explain to the public that they're shutting down government because they don't want people to get vaccinated?" Pelosi said at a press briefing in the Capitol. House Democrats were able to swiftly pass the bill despite Republican opposition, but the bill’s path to passage in the evenly split Senate is not yet guaranteed. The bill will need at least 60 votes to clear the upper chamber’s procedural hurdles, and any one senator could delay it. A handful of Senate Republicans have vowed to hold up the spending bill — risking a shutdown on Friday at midnight when government funding is set to lapse — unless they get a vote on defunding Biden's vaccinate-or-test mandate. The leaders of that effort, including Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), indicated they’d be satisfied with a vote on defunding the mandates to fully vaccinate or be tested, as long as it only requires a simple majority to be adopted. Marshall previously secured a vote on a similar amendment to prohibit funding for enforcing COVID-19 vaccine mandates as part of the last stopgap bill to avert a shutdown in late September. But it would have required at least 60 votes and failed along party lines. Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) voted against Marshall’s amendment in September. But on Thursday, Manchin declined to tell reporters how he would vote on the latest proposal. “I’ve been very supportive of a mandate for federal government, for military ... I’ve been less enthused about it in the private sector,” Manchin said. While Senate Republicans are strongly opposed to the vaccine mandate, many are not on board with the strategy to risk a potential government shutdown over the issue. A shutdown, even if only for a few days, would come as the world is grappling with the new omicron variant that has concerned scientists due to its mutations that could potentially make the virus more contagious. Republicans also pointed to three court rulings in recent days that halted the Biden administration’s vaccine mandates for health care workers and federal contractors as evidence that forcing a shutdown would be pointless. "I don't think shutting down the government over this issue is going to get an outcome. It would only create chaos and uncertainty so I don't think that's the best vehicle to get this job done," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in a Fox News interview on Thursday..
McConnell leaves GOP in dark on debt ceiling -- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is keeping his debt ceiling strategy close to the vest as he negotiates with Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) ahead of a mid-December cliff. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said Congress has until Dec. 15 to raise the nation’s borrowing limit or risk a catastrophic default that would have widespread ramifications for the global economy. But close allies say they’ve been given virtually no insight into the talks with Schumer, with the two leaders having a high-profile meeting before Thanksgiving before going to ground on their negotiations since then. Asked how much he was hearing about the McConnell-Schumer negotiations, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), an adviser to the Senate GOP leader, said “pretty much nothing.” “I think Sen. McConnell said today, ‘Sen. Schumer’s not talking about it. I’m not talking about it either,’” Cornyn said. A senior GOP senator characterized McConnell’s position as, “He and Schumer are talking and it will all work out and we shouldn’t worry about it.” “That is almost an exact quote,” the senator added. Spokespeople for McConnell didn’t respond to a request for comment on the debt ceiling negotiations. McConnell didn’t disclose his thinking during closed-door caucus lunches this week, according to GOP senators who attended, and he was equally cagey during his regular press conference. “Let me assure everyone the government will not default as it never has. And second, the majority leader and I have been having discussions about the way forward,” McConnell told reporters when asked about the talks. Pressed again on the path forward, McConnell added that he and Schumer were engaged in “useful discussion.” McConnell’s tight-lipped stance comes after a bruising fight heading toward an October debt cliff, during which McConnell and Schumer traded shots as they increasingly dug into their positions. After arguing for months that Republicans wouldn’t help raise the debt ceiling and pushing Democrats to do it on their own through reconciliation, a budget process that allows them to avoid a 60-vote legislative filibuster, McConnell abruptly shifted strategies, offering to help Democrats advance a short-term debt hike. Republicans who support McConnell’s decision argue it was meant to defang one of the top Democratic arguments against raising the debt ceiling under reconciliation: that there wasn’t enough time. But it sparked unusually fierce criticism of the GOP leader from his own caucus, and his leadership team scrambled for hours to lock down the Republican votes needed to help advance the debt ceiling bill. Eleven Republicans, including McConnell, helped break a filibuster, though they all voted against passing the debt bill. Former President Trump has repeatedly hammered McConnell over his handling of the debt ceiling and urged him to weaponize it against the rest of President Biden’s legislative agenda.
Manchin to vote to nix Biden's vaccine mandate for larger businesses -Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said on Thursday night that he is supporting a GOP effort to nix President Biden’s vaccine mandate for larger businesses, which is expected to get a vote in the Senate next week. “Let me be clear, I do not support any government vaccine mandate on private businesses. That’s why I have cosponsored and will strongly support a bill to overturn the federal government vaccine mandate for private businesses," Manchin said in a statement. "I have long said we should incentivize, not penalize, private employers whose responsibility it is to protect their employees from COVID-19," he added."I have personally had both vaccine doses and a booster shot," he went on, "and I continue to urge every West Virginian to get vaccinated themselves."Because all 50 Republicans are supporting the effort, Manchin's vote gives Senate Republicans enough support to pass a resolution to nix Biden's vaccine mandate for larger employers. The resolution would still need to pass the House and, even then, would likely be vetoed by Biden. Republican senators introduced the resolution earlier this year under the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to roll back the mandate, with which the Occupational Safety and Health Administration orders businesses with at least 100 employees to require their workers to get vaccinated or undergo regular testing by Jan. 4.Republicans are able to use the CRA to force a vote to nix Biden's mandate at a simple majority vote. The resolution is expected to come to the floor for a vote next week and Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), who is leading the effort, told The Hill on Thursday night that he is in talks with a handful of additional Democratic senators.“I hope that more Democratic Senators and Representatives will follow Senator Manchin’s strong lead and stand up against this federal overreach that will wreak havoc on our recovering economy and trample on the rights of millions of Americans,” Braun said in a statement. Manchin's announcement that he is supporting the stand-alone GOP effort to roll back Biden's vaccine mandate comes after he voted against a GOP amendment to defund the mandate that a group of conservatives tried to attach to a short-term government funding bill.Manchin suggested in his statement that he opposed the amendment because if it had been added to the government funding bill it would have risked a shutdown. Congress had until the end of Friday to pass the stopgap measure, which funds the government through mid-February.“In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and as the new Omicron variant emerges, I will not vote to shut down the government for purely political reasons. There is too much at stake for the American people," he said.
Senate cuts deal to clear government funding bill -- The Senate cut a deal on Thursday night to pave the way for passing a short-term government funding bill to avert a shutdown. Under the deal, the Senate will first vote Thursday night on an amendment from conservatives to defund President Biden’s vaccine mandate for larger employers, which is expected to fall short. Democrats agreed to allow the amendment vote at a simple-majority threshold. That means if every Republican and one Democrat voted for the amendment it would be added to the funding bill. Though Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) hasn’t said how he will vote, with Republican senators absent the amendment is expected to fall short regardless. After that, the Senate will vote on passing the short-term funding bill, where they will need 60 votes to send it to Biden’s desk. The bill will fund the government through Feb. 18. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) came to the Senate floor around 8 p.m. to announce the agreement and set up quick votes. "I am glad that in the end cooler heads prevailed. The government will stay open. And I thank the members of this chamber for walking us back from the brink of an avoidable, needless and costly shutdown,” he said. The deal comes after the Senate has haggled for days over conservatives’ push to link the government funding bill to defunding Biden’s vaccine mandate for larger employers. The effort frustrated some Republican senators who viewed it as doomed to fail because Biden wouldn’t sign it and House Democrats view such a measure as a non-starter. Congress has until the end of Friday to pass the stop-gap bill and have Biden sign it in order to prevent a shutdown. Because of the Senate’s rules, and the time crunch, any one senator could have slowed down the process and driven Congress past the funding deadline.
Conservatives offer shutdown offramp in exchange for vaccine mandate vote - A group of Senate conservatives are demanding a simple-majority vote on their push to defund President Biden's vaccine mandate for larger businesses in exchange for agreeing to expedite a short-term government funding deal. The push by Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) comes as Congress has until the end of Friday to pass a funding bill to keep the government open and prevent a shutdown. Because of Senate rules, and the time crunch, any one senator can force the chamber to miss that deadline. The three GOP senators said on Thursday that they are willing to help speed up the funding bill, which would keep the government open through Feb. 18, if Senate leadership agrees to hold a vote on their proposal to defund Biden's mandate as an amendment to the funding bill. That vote, conservatives say, would have to be at a simple majority, meaning they would just need to peel off one Democratic senator to get it into the bill. "I've offered a very simple solution, a very reasonable solution. ... I just want to vote on one amendment," Lee, who up until Thursday had been publicly tightlipped about his thinking, said during a Senate floor speech. "A simple up-or-down, yes or no, a simple-majority vote. That's all I'm asking. ... We're providing every opportunity to avoid a shutdown," he added. The Senate took a similar vote during the debate over the last short-term government funding bill, but Republicans failed to get it into the bill. Every GOP senator voted for the amendment at the time, but they failed get any Democratic votes and needed support from three-fifths of the Senate to get it into the September funding bill. Lee, after his floor speech, said that the amendment had to be at a simple majority, not a 60-vote threshold. His position is backed up by the other conservative senators pushing for a vote in exchange for expediting the government funding bill. "I would accept an amendment to vote on it on a simple-majority threshold," Cruz said, while suggesting that he would still vote against the short-term government funding bill if the amendment isn't included. Marshall added that he, Lee and Cruz will be talking to leadership about how to get an amendment vote. "We're not OK with a 60-vote threshold. We've already been done that road," he added. Democratic leaders haven't yet said if they are willing to give the conservatives a vote on their amendment at a simple-majority threshold. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) warned earlier Thursday that if there was a government shutdown, Republicans would be blamed. Republicans indicated after a closed-door lunch that the standoff with Lee remained unresolved. One GOP senator told The Hill that Republicans are trying to convince Lee to back down on his demand for a vote and instead use next week's vote on Biden's vaccine mandate, which Republicans are able to force under the Congressional Review Act, as a substitute. But, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), during a Fox News interview, predicted that there wouldn't be a shutdown and poured cold water on the conservative threat to shut down the government over Biden's vaccine mandate. "I don't think shutting down the government over this issue is going to get an outcome. It would only create chaos and uncertainty, so I don't think that's the best vehicle to get this job done," he said.
Shutdown averted? Deal would fund agencies through Feb. 18 - Congressional leaders struck a bipartisan deal this morning on legislation to extend current government funding by nearly three months, and the House is expected to quickly pass the measure today. Lawmakers are scrambling to approve the stopgap funding bill, H.R. 6119, which would extend agency dollars through Feb. 18, before midnight tomorrow when current spending authority expires. If Congress doesn’t act, the government will go into partial shutdown. Even though Democratic and Republican leaders in both the House and Senate support the deal, it’s uncertain whether the Senate will meet the Friday deadline. A handful of conservatives are threatening to delay the continuing resolution to force a vote on scrapping federal vaccine mandates. More than two-thirds of senators favor the stopgap and may be able to overcome any dilatory tactics before federal agencies open Monday morning. What happens at national parks and other sites during the weekend remains unclear. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) this morning called the deal a “good agreement” that would buy Congress time to wrap all fiscal 2022 spending bills into an omnibus package. But he warned the bill may not be signed into law by tomorrow’s deadline. “Unfortunately, it seems Republican dysfunction could be a roadblock to averting an unnecessary shutdown,” said Schumer. “We hope cooler heads will prevail.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), appearing on Fox News earlier today, said he was not expecting a shutdown and warned doing so would only create “uncertainty and chaos.” Conservatives, among them Republican Sens. Roger Marshall of Kansas, Ted Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah, have said they may filibuster the spending bill unless it blocks Occupational Safety and Health Administration funding for federal vaccine mandates. The conservatives have signaled they’d be open to a vote on a vaccine mandate amendment to the CR, but Senate leaders have yet to signal that they’ll allow it, especially if anti-mandate lawmakers insist on a simple majority threshold. Many Senate Republicans said they would prefer to see the vaccine issue play out in the courts, where the mandate has already faced several setbacks. The Senate may also consider Congressional Review Act legislation next week on the controversy. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) expressed confidence that a government shutdown would be averted. . After the CR passes, appropriators will turn to hammering out a compromise omnibus for all 12 annual spending bills. None has been signed into law, although the House has passed the bulk of its bills, including the Interior-EPA and Energy-Water funding measures. Lawmakers will have to resolve a dispute over whether there should be parity in defense and domestic spending increases. Democrats have proposed large boosts for EPA and the Interior and Energy departments. Also, negotiators need to deal with contentious policy riders, including several repealing or expanding environmental protections.
Congress averts shutdown after vaccine mandate fight - The Senate on Thursday night passed a short-term funding bill to avert a government shutdown after a dayslong fight over President Biden’s vaccine mandate threw the legislation into limbo. Senators voted 69-28 to pass a stopgap bill to fund the government through Feb. 18. The legislation, which passed the House earlier in the evening, now goes to Biden’s desk where he has until the end of Friday to sign it. The quick votes are a U-turn from Thursday morning, when the path to avert a shutdown was far from clear. Leaders of the House and Senate Appropriations committees announced a stop-gap deal, but hurdles remained in the Senate amid a standoff with a group of conservatives. Those lawmakers wanted to use the short-term funding bill, known as a continuing resolution, to defund Biden’s vaccine mandate for larger businesses, federal employees and contractors, and the military. But the effort sparked quick Democratic backlash, with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) hammering Republicans as "anti-vaccination." Even as Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) predicted that the government wouldn’t shut down, senators were locked in a war of words. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) warned that Republicans would bear the blame for a “Republican anti-vaccine shutdown,” while Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) — one of the senators pushing to defund the vaccine mandate — fired back, saying that a shutdown was “up to Senator Schumer.” The path to an offramp slowly emerged on Thursday. Marshall and Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) said they would agree to help speed up the funding bill if Democrats allowed them a vote on defunding Biden’s vaccine mandate at a simple majority threshold. "I've offered a very simple solution, a very reasonable solution. ... I just want to vote on one amendment," Lee said. Lawmakers waited throughout Thursday, when the Senate typically leaves Washington for the week, to see if Democrats would grant Lee his vote or if the libertarian-minded Republican would back down and instead settle for a vote on the vaccine mandate that Republicans will force next week under the Congressional Review Act. Senators emerged from a GOP lunch warning that they weren’t close to a resolution with Lee, raising the specter that the shutdown fight would drag into Friday. But by roughly 5:30 p.m., end-of-week jet fumes appeared to have set in, with senators predicting a quick vote to pass the short-term funding bill. Cruz told reporters that it “looks promising” that the conservatives would get their vaccine mandate vote on Thursday night, allowing the short-term government funding bill to pass shortly thereafter. And Schumer, while declining to discuss specifics, told reporters that the chances of a quick resolution to the funding fight was “looking good.” Senators ultimately voted 48-50 on the GOP amendment, falling short of the simple majority needed for it to be added to the bill.
Senate GOP expected to block defense bill amid stalemate - Senate Republicans are expected to block a sweeping defense policy bill amid a stalemate on allowing votes on potential changes to the mammoth legislation. The Senate is currently scheduled to vote to start ending debate on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) at 5:30 p.m. on Monday. The bill will need 60 votes, meaning the support of at least 10 GOP senators, to overcome the hurdle. But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said that he will vote against wrapping up debate because Republicans want votes on amendments to the bill. “The Democratic leader ... now wants to block the Senate from a real debate and real amendment process,” McConnell said, referring to Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). “So if the Democratic leader insists on forcing a cloture vote later today, I’ll oppose cutting off these important debates prematurely when they have really just begun,” McConnell added. Spokespeople for Sen. James Inhofe (Okla.), the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, didn’t respond to questions about if he would vote against starting to wind down debate on the bill on Monday. But a GOP aide said Republicans are expected to block the defense bill from moving forward on Monday night as they push for a deal on amendment votes. Inhofe and Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), who chairs the Armed Services Committee, previously agreed to votes on a package of 18 amendments, including a conservative push to strip out language in the defense bill that requires women to register for the selective service and a bipartisan push to include a repeal of the 2002 Iraq War authorization in the defense bill. Senate GOP blocks defense bill, throwing it into limbo Overnight Defense & National Security — US, Iran return to... But that package was blocked before the weeks-long Thanksgiving break by several Republican senators whose amendments were not included. McConnell singled out some of the additional amendments that Republicans want votes on, including proposals backed by Sens. James Risch (R-Idaho) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) related to sanctions for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Spokespeople for Schumer didn’t respond to a question about if he would delay the Monday vote.
Senate GOP blocks defense bill, throwing it into limbo - Senate Republicans on Monday blocked a mammoth defense policy bill, throwing the legislation into limbo as Congress heads into a packed year-end schedule.The Senate voted 45-51 to start winding down debate on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which sets spending levels and policy for the Pentagon. But that is short of the 60 votes needed to overcome the hurdle. Sen. Susan Collins (Maine) was the only Republican to vote with Democrats to advance the bill, while Democratic Sens. Ed Markey(Mass.), Jeff Merkley (Ore.), Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) and Ron Wyden(Ore.) and Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) voted against moving forward along with 46 GOP senators. The setback comes amid a stalemate on allowing votes on amendments to the bill. Leadership previously got a deal before the Thanksgiving recess to allow for 18 amendment votes, but that agreement was blocked by several Republicans who didn’t get their own proposals included. Democrats are leaving the door open to trying to move the bill again. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) took steps on Monday night to make it easier to force the vote for a second time.“Republicans just blocked legislation to support our troops, support our families, keep Americans safe. Republican dysfunction has again derailed bipartisan progress,” Schumer said from the Senate floor, calling the GOP stance “inexplicable and outrageous.”But Republicans are accusing Schumer of trying to jam the defense bill through the Senate after delaying bringing it to the floor. It can take up to two weeks to bring the defense bill up for debate and get it to a final vote.The Senate Armed Services Committee voted to advance the defense bill in July, and the delay in bringing it before the full Senate for a vote sparked frustration from Senate Republicans and House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.).“No matter how important it is, that doesn’t mean that we’ll accept the fact that Sen. Schumer wants to jam it through the Senate without adequate consideration. Let me be clear: Sen. Schumer has put us in this position today. He waited more than two months after we filed the NDAA to bring it to the floor. Two months,” said Sen. James Inhofe (Okla.), the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee.As part of the deal that leadership tried to clear before the break, the Senate would have voted on 18 amendments, with Schumer noting that Inhofe and Armed Services Committee Chairman Jack Reed (D-R.I.) had also worked out a deal to include at least an additional 50 amendments in the bill without needing a vote on each proposal. Of the 18 amendment votes, 11 were either GOP amendments or bipartisan amendments.But several Republican senators blocked that package. And Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Monday pointed to several issues that Republicans want additional amendment votes on that were not part of the 18-amendment package offered before the Thanksgiving break. They include a proposal for sanctions related to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which has the backing of GOP Sens. James Risch (Idaho) and Ted Cruz (Texas). The House-passed defense bill included Nord Stream 2-related sanctions.“The Democratic leader seems to want to put national security last. My colleague is trying to overcorrect for poor planning by cramming a two-week bill into two or three days’ time. I imagine there might be finger-pointing at Republicans if that proves impossible,” McConnell said.In addition to the pipeline, Republicans want votes on amendments related to support for Ukraine and China.
Congress must untie Biden’s hands on Taiwan Rep. Elaine Luria, Democrat vice chair of the House Armed Services Committee. - Earlier this year, during hearings before the House and Senate, current and former commanders of our forces in Asia indicated that China might take military action against Taiwan in the next six years. Already, tensions across the Strait of Taiwan are rising rapidly with incursions by a record number of Chinese aircraft. In response, the Taiwanese foreign minister said last week that Taiwan is preparing for war. The Biden White House continues to affirm America’s long-standing commitment to a democratic Taiwan as “rock solid.” And we know now that U.S. Special Forces and Marines have been operating as trainers in Taiwan for at least a year. As members of Congress crafted this year’s defense budget, we took steps to build more ships than we decommission, accelerate the construction of submarines, add additional aircraft and bolster our investment in the Pacific Defense Initiative. The problem is: We must have both the force with which to deter the Chinese and the legal authority to employ it. And right now, we do not. No amount of rhetoric or military spending will stop the Chinese if Beijing is intent on taking Taiwan by force because of one simple fact: Under the War Powers and Taiwan Relations acts, the president has no legal authority, without the express authorization of Congress, to use military force to defend Taiwan. The legal limitations on a president’s ability to respond quickly could all but ensure a Chinese fait accompli. Simply put: The president has no legal authority to react in the time necessary to repel a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and deter an all-out war. According to the Taiwan Relations Act, adopted in 1979, “the President and the Congress shall determine in accordance with constitutional processes, appropriate action by the United States.” But without congressional authorization, the War Powers Act limits the president’s ability to respond only in cases in which an “attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces” has occurred. Waiting to seek congressional approval until after China acts would likely cause an insurmountable delay in responding to a hostile action by China to seize Taiwan militarily.
A woke military is no defense at all — why Defense bill in current form must not pass | TheHill – OP Ed by US Reps Andy Biggs, Arizona, Jody Hice, Georgia, Michael Cloud. Texas, Warren Davidson, Ohio’s and Ralph Norman South Carolina - The proposed National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will encourage critical race theory indoctrination and other “woke” policies while reducing our military preparedness.Forty-one Republican senators can stand together against the blinding liberal programs in the NDAA per the Senate rules. They can make sure that vaccine mandates go away before they agree to forward the bill to the House.Republicans in the House also have the leverage to prevent passage of the bill because Democrats need Republican votes to pass the bill. We should stand united against the NDAA until the elimination of vax mandates. Our military will still be adequately funded, but freed from the woke nonsense from the left.Military spending is a constitutionally authorized obligation. But, that obligation should not be diluted by the “wokeness” that has infected the current NDAA.Currently thousands of military men and women, in whom we place significant trust and in whom we have invested heavily, are at risk of being tossed from the military because they do not want to receiveBiden’s mandated COVID vax.We are about to lose tremendous men and women from our military, many of whom arehighly trained. This is to be expected from an administration that has opened our border and encouraged our enemies around the world.The unconstitutional vax mandates are bad enough, but the Biden administration and some of our military leaders have become missionaries of the left. They are focused on finding white supremacy in the military. They are convinced that our biggest national threat is climate change. Not the Chinese, not North Korea, nor any other of the increasingly bellicose international actors.As we endure national embarrassment due to the Biden team’s projected weakness around the world, we also watch theincreasing number of sorties by China’s military encroaching on Taiwan. It may be suggested that China’s President Xi is bemused at our emphasis on wokeness. The NDAA perpetuates the woke, CRT indoctrination, funding for transition surgeries, and drafting of women, and lacks accountability for the Afghanistan debacle. There is a path to slow this down. In the Senate 60 votes are required to pass the NDAA.That means if 41 of the Republican senators stick together, they will have leverage to end vax mandates, and other bad policies in the Democrats’ version of the NDAA.In the House, there have been two significant pieces of legislation that Republicans aided Democrats in passing. The first was the “infrastructure” bill, which would have failed but for Republican votes. When Democrats did not have enough votes to pass that bill, Republicans in Congress crossed over to provide the winning vote margin for the “infrastructure” package that was more Green New Deal than roads and transportation.Similarly, the NDAA was voted on in the House earlier this year. In that vote, 37 Democrats voted against the NDAA, and Republicans gave the NDAA the winning margin, despite inclusion of provisions that those same Republicans have regularly opposed. Republicans now have a second chance to control the NDAA. If Republicans look at the bill in its entirety, not just at the parts that fund our military, they will see the social engineering advocacy by the left. If Republicans unitedly oppose the NDAA in this go-around, the Democrats will be unable to pass the bill by themselves. Only with the help of Republicans can the woke NDAA bill get enough votes to pass.Taking this bill down is our only opportunity to “de-woke” the NDAA. Taking it down is Republicans’ leverage to protect our military men and women from the social engineering advancing in our military at the direction of President Biden.If we stop this version of the NDAA we can end the military vax mandates and produce a defense spending package that focuses on national security. A woke military is No Defense At All.
Senators pressed to include cannabis banking in military spending bill — Advocates for the banking and payments industries are urging the U.S. Senate to include a long-sought safe harbor for cannabis banking in an upcoming military spending package. In a letter sent congressional leaders Tuesday, industry officials asked the senators to weigh the inclusion of the Secure and Fair Enforcement Banking Act inside the National Defense Authorization Act for the 2022 fiscal year, writing that the status quo was "untenable” for the cannabis industry and financial sector alike. The letter was addressed to Sens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Pat Toomey, R-Pa., Jack Reed D-R.I., and James Inhofe, R-Okla.
US admiral calls for “six, seven or eight” aircraft carriers in the Pacific - The commander of the US Seventh Fleet, based in the Pacific, concluded a major joint naval exercise on Tuesday with a call for a big increase in aircraft carriers for the region. The annual ANNUALEX exercise hosted by Japan is the latest in escalating US-led military drills that are clearly aimed at preparing for war against China. Vice Admiral Karl Thomas declared that although the combined forces marshalled for the war games represented “an incredible amount of power,” the allies needed to go further. “When we think about how we might fight, it’s a large water space, and four aircraft carriers is a good number, but six, seven or eight would be better,” he said. The ANNUALEX drills involved around 35 warships and 40 aircraft from the US, Japan, Australia, Canada and, for the first time, Germany. The 10-day exercises involved joint training to “enhance maritime communication skills, anti-submarine warfare operations, air warfare operations, replenishments-at-sea, cross-deck flight operations and maritime interdiction manoeuvres,” a US navy statement said. The identity of the “enemies” in the ANNUALEX training scenarios is no mystery. Asked by the media about China and Russia, Thomas declared it was important to show a united face to “other nations that might be more aggressive and authoritarian.”
Pentagon Blasted for ‘Unacceptable Failure’ to Reckon With Civilian Casualties - Days after U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered a new investigation into a clandestine airstrike that killed scores of Syrian noncombatants whose deaths were subsequently covered up, 24 advocacy groups on Wednesday published an open letter calling on the Pentagon to “reckon with U.S.-caused civilian casualties and commit to urgent reforms.”“We urge you to… commit to finally implementing structural changes to prioritize civilian protection and accountability for civilian harm.”The letter, addressed to Austin, expresses “grave concerns” about the Pentagon’s “civilian harm policies and practices and their impact,” citing an August 29 drone strike in Kabul, Afghanistan that killed 10 civiliansincluding an aid worker and seven children, as well as a March 18, 2019 airstrike in Baghuz, Syria in which around 70 civilians died and was “flagged as a possible war crime by at least one Defense Department lawyer.”“These strikes, and the Defense Department’s record of civilian harm over the past 20 years, illustrate an unacceptable failure to prioritize civilian protection in the use of lethal force; meaningfully investigate, acknowledge, and provide amends when harm occurs; and provide accountability in the event of wrongdoing,” the signers continue.While determining the exact number of civilians killed during 21 years of the U.S.-led so-called War on Terror is impossible given that the United States doesn’t “do body counts” or, in many cases, adequately investigate who has been harmed by airstrikes and other attacks, the Costs of War Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs says900,000 noncombatants have died. Other groups contend that number could be perhaps twice as high.The bulk of these casualties occurred during the administration of former President George W. Bush. His successor, former President Barack Obama, bombed more countries and dramatically expanded unmanned aerial drone strikes, while former President Donald Trump presided over the deaths of thousands of civilians after promising to “bomb the shit” out of Islamic State militants and their families, and relaxing rules of engagement meant to protect noncombatants. With the American withdrawal from Afghanistan and increasingly infrequent U.S. attacks in the ongoing War on Terror, civilian casualties have declined dramatically under President Joe Biden. However, monitoring groups including U.K.-based Airwars have periodically reportednoncombatant deaths and injuries caused by U.S. attacks in at least Afghanistan, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen.“For too long, the United States has failed to live up to its legal and moral commitments to the protection of civilians, as well as its own stated policies,” the letter argues. “This needs to change.”“The Defense Department’s response to the Kabul and Baghuz strikes also underscores the department’s repeated failure to adequately investigate alleged civilian harm—including possible war crimes, as required under international law—and provide compensation or amends,” it adds. “We urge you to robustly account for and reckon with the civilian harm of the last 20 years,” the signers assert, “and commit to finally implementing structural changes to prioritize civilian protection and accountability for civilian harm.”
Schumer: 'Goal' is to pass Biden spending bill before Christmas - Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Monday said that he will bring President Biden's spending bill to the Senate floor once the parliamentarian finishes reviewing it and that it is his "goal" to pass the roughly $2 trillion bill by the end of the year. "Once this necessary work is completed with the parliamentarian, I will bring the president's Build Back Better legislation to the floor so we can pass it as soon as possible and send it to the president's desk," Schumer said from the Senate floor. "Our goal continues to be to get this done before Christmas," he added. Schumer's comments come after the House passed the climate and social spending bill before a weeks-long Thanksgiving break.But the bill faces hurdles in the Senate, where Democrats' 50-seat majority leaves them with no room for error and needing total unity plus Vice President Harris in the chair to break a tie in order to both start debate on the bill and pass it.Lawmakers are facing an end-of-year crunch, with a backed-up legislative to-do list including funding the government, raising the debt ceiling and passing a mammoth defense bill that is currently stuck in limbo because of a stalemate on voting on potential changes.Schumer didn't specify what week he'll try to bring the climate and social spending bill to the floor. Democrats are holding talks this week with the Senate parliamentarian, who offers guidance on whether provisions in the bill comply with Senate budget rules that govern what can be included. Congress also faces a Dec. 3 deadline to fund the government, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that it needs to raise the nation's borrowing limit by Dec. 15. Even as Schumer vowed on Monday to pass the bill by the end of the year, he doesn't yet have a lock on the 50 votes needed to bring it up and pass it.Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) haven't said if they support the legislation, while other Senate Democrats acknowledge they haven't yet read the House bill.
IRS data proves Trump tax cuts benefited middle, working-class Americans most - President Biden and congressional Democrats’ Build Back Better (BBB) Act is now in the hands of the Senate. That legislative body’s 50-50 partisan split will undoubtedly make the bill’s passage difficult. In order for BBB to become law, Democratic Senate leadership will need to convince moderates such as Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) that the legislation’s $2.4 trillion price tag can be offset by expanding the IRS and its enforcement efforts while imposing substantial tax reform measures. Congressional Democrats have argued that one of the best ways to pay for the legislation is to raise taxes on wealthy households, which, according to many on the left, have benefited disproportionately and unfairly from the 2017 tax reform law passed by Republicans and signed by former President Trump. The latest data, however, proves that this claim is pure mythology. Income data published by the IRS clearly show that on average all income brackets benefited substantially from the Republicans’ tax reform law, with the biggest beneficiaries being working and middle-income filers, not the top 1 percent, as so many Democrats have argued. A careful analysis of the IRS tax data, one that includes the effects of tax credits and other reforms to the tax code, shows that filers with an adjusted gross income (AGI) of $15,000 to $50,000 enjoyed an average tax cut of 16 percent to 26 percent in 2018, the first year Republicans’ Tax Cuts and Jobs Act went into effect and the most recent year for which data is available. Filers who earned $50,000 to $100,000 received a tax break of about 15 percent to 17 percent, and those earning $100,000 to $500,000 in adjusted gross income saw their personal income taxes cut by around 11 percent to 13 percent. By comparison, no income group with an AGI of at least $500,000 received an average tax cut exceeding 9 percent, and the average tax cut for brackets starting at $1 million was less than 6 percent. That means most middle-income and working-class earners enjoyed a tax cut that was at least double the size of tax cuts received by households earning $1 million or more.
Green incentives usually help the rich. Here’s how the Build Back Better Act could change that. -If the Build Back Better Act, Democrats’ $2.2 trillion climate and social welfare bill, passes the Senate later this month, it will come with thousands of dollars in incentives and tax credits for electric cars, solar panels, heat pumps, e-bikes, and even electric motorcycles. A family could get up to $12,500 off an electric car; the federal government would also pay for up to 30 percent of a home installation of solar panels; and individuals who purchase e-bikes could get a credit of up to $900. More than ever before, taxpayers will be incentivized to adopt low-carbon lifestyles: eschewing gas-guzzlers for electric vehicles, putting in energy-efficient windows, or even installing miniature wind turbines on top of their homes. But will people actually use that money? Researchers say that is the big question. Existing tax credits have significant drawbacks. For one, financial incentives alone are rarely enough to get consumers to go electric or give their homes a green upgrade while low-income households face particular hurdles: Many don’t make enough money to take advantage of the tax credits, or live in rented homes that can’t be easily upgraded. “Clean energy tax credits overwhelmingly go to high-income households,” said Lucas Davis, a professor of business and economics at the University of California, Berkeley. According to a study by Davis and a co-author, the current batch of clean energy tax credits — which were started in 2006, with the Energy Policy Act, and expanded in President Barack Obama’s financial stimulus package — mostly went to the richest 20 percent of Americans. Between 2006 and 2012, the authors found, the top earners received about 60 percent of all the federal tax credits doled out for electric cars, solar panels, and retrofitting homes to save energy. For electric cars, the disparity was even more extreme: The top 20 percent of earners claimed 90 percent of the credits. Davis argues that one of the major problems is that existing tax credits are “non-refundable.” That means that if Americans don’t owe enough in income tax, they can’t claim the full credit. In some cases, like with home solar panel installation, the credit will simply roll over to the following year, but in other cases, like with electric cars, some buyers will simply be out of luck: A taxpayer with less than $66,000 in income won’t make enough money to get the full credit.
Industry slams oil and gas reforms in bid to sway Manchin - - A coalition of fossil fuel industry groups directly asked Sen. Joe Manchin yesterday to reject proposed increases to royalty rates for oil and gas leasing on federal lands, a potential warning sign for yet another climate provision in the Democrats’ massive social and climate spending package. Addressed only to the West Virginia Democrat whose swing vote status could make or break the future of the reconciliation bill in the Senate, the letter targeted a larger suite of reforms to the federal oil and gas program contained in H.R. 5376, the House-passed, $1.7 trillion measure. That included banning oil and gas drilling in the Pacific, Atlantic and Eastern Gulf and creating new annual pipeline fees.“We seek to be constructive partners in the development of thoughtful and balanced national policy to address climate change,” wrote the fossil fuel groups, among them the American Petroleum Institute, National Ocean Industries Association and Independent Petroleum Association of America. “However, punitively targeted provisions … will hinder, not help this effort.”The backlash against royalty rate hikes could be most persuasive to Manchin, who has already expressed fears that climate action could make rising inflation worse.Environmental advocates are also now closely watching the issue as it gains new prominence after the release last week of a report from the Interior Department on the future of the federal oil and gas program. Republicans quickly attacked the report for recommending Congress raise royalty rates (E&E Daily, Nov. 29). Asked yesterday whether he supported royalty hikes, Manchin repeated a similar line as he has in the past.“I think adjustments need to be made,” he told reporters. “I’ve always thought adjustments need to be made.”He didn’t say what adjustments he was referring to, but Sara Cawley, a legislative representative for climate and energy with Earthjustice, said her group would continue to fight to keep the royalty changes intact.“The American people have been getting a raw deal for too long,” she told E&E News last night. “We don’t have a crystal ball about what’s going to pass the Senate, but we will keep working to elevate the importance of enacting these reforms.”In the House’s reconciliation bill, the onshore rate for new oil and gas leases would jump from 12.5 percent to 18.75 percent. The rate for new offshore oil and gas leases would be no less than 14 percent.The bill would also remove the authority for the government to lower royalty rates at the request of oil, gas and coal operators, another provision loathed by industry (Greenwire, July 28). Though royalty rates have not been changed since 1920, fossil fuel interests have said these increases would be exorbitant and debilitating for the oil and gas sector. Republicans, meanwhile, claim the increases will lead to higher fuel prices.
Reconciliation bill: Transportation secretaries from rural states raise alarm over green energy provision --Five transportation secretaries from rural states are raising an alarm over a green-energy provision in Democrats' reconciliation bill.Transportation secretaries from Wyoming, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana say in a letter obtained by Fox News to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that one provision of the bill gives the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) too much power. The letter says Section 110002(a) would give the FHWA the authority to impose general "consequences" on state highway programs if states do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions over a 10-year period. "This provision is very expansively worded and would vest in the Executive Branch what seems to be potentially far-reaching power over State highway decisions," the authors wrote. "This includes allowing the Executive Branch to determine the extent of punishment or sanction (undescribed 'consequences') to be assessed on States and even to define the nature of the requirement (e.g., which greenhouse gas or gases are to be reduced, possibly in a short time frame)."A senior Senate aide told Fox News the provision was "egregious" and decried it for being "yet another example of Democrats trying to impose solutions to urban issues on rural America, and with potentially disastrous consequences.""These states are low in population and high in public lands – they’re not driving greenhouse gases, they’re driving solutions. Letting the FHWA take money from their highway funds at the discretion of a political appointee will only make it harder for Americans to live and work out west. Out west, FHWA funds are mainly used to maintain current roads, and reductions could make roads impossible to travel during winter months, or further harm supply chain issues due to decrepit road." said the aide.Section 110002, otherwise known as Community Climate Incentive Grants, would allocate $3 billion in grants to local governments, city planning organizations and other entities that reduce states' carbon emissions through initiatives such as an expansion of public transportation. It would also give $50 million to the FHWA and $950 million to states to establish performance criteria and hold states accountable. Proponents of the provision, such as the Rails-to-Trails Conservancy (RTC), say it will create more transportation options.
The Reconciliation Bill Gives a Huge Gift to the Gas Industry - President Joe Biden has touted his administration’s Build Back Better Act as “the largest effort to combat climate change in American history.” While not untrue, the devil is in the details. And the devil buried in the climate section of the reconciliation bill text? A sizable gift to the natural gas industry in the form of rebates for Americans switching to appliances powered by burning natural gas. Tucked into the section calling for residential efficiency and electrification rebates is a subtle six-year policy to make $5.9 billion available to establish the Home Owner Managing Energy Savings (HOMES) rebate program. The policy, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase household energy and cost savings, would help states establish rebate programs for energy-efficient retrofits. According to the White House, “The consumer rebates and credits included in the Build Back Better framework will save the average American family hundreds of dollars per year in energy costs.” But when it comes to what types of appliances are eligible for the rebate program, the legislation notes the following: “In calculating total energy savings for single family or multifamily homes under this section, a program may include savings from the purchase of high-efficiency natural gas HVAC systems and water heaters certified under the Energy Star program.” In other words, this rebate program would incentivize consumers to stay locked into natural gas systems to power their homes. And as Reuters reported last year, the natural gas industry’s rapidly increasing emissions, especially in the United States, are likely making the sector the biggest barrier to tackling climate change. “Provisions like this are really contradictory to the United States’ efforts to combat climate change,”
Democrats await decision on whether immigration can be in Build Back Better - Democrats in the Senate have for the third time tried to use a technical procedure to try to include immigration provisions in President Joe Biden's Build Back Better Act, putting everything on the line for what could be the last attempt to try to pass some sort of overhaul of the nation's immigration laws before the new year.The Senate parliamentarian considered arguments from Democratic and Republican aides Wednesday morning on whether immigration provisions could be included in a massive tax and spending bill that would expand the nation's social safety net.The process the parliamentarian is taking is known as a "Byrd bath" -- named after former Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia, who came up with the rule to stop either side from abusing the reconciliation process.The process would decide whether Democrats would succeed in passing a form of legalization for undocumented immigrants, a priority for the Biden administration. Elizabeth MacDonough's role as the Senate parliamentarian means she advises the chamber on how its rules, protocols and precedents should be applied as Democrats and the White House figure out what they can include in the massive tax and spending bill known as the Build Back Better Act.The bill would be passed using a process called budget reconciliation, meaning the bill could pass with a simple majority of 51 votes and not require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Reconciliation, however, has a strict set of rules, and provisions have to undergo a review of whether they have an impact on the budget and not just an "incidental" one. A source familiar with the arguments from Democratic aides in favor of the provisions told CNN that because this is their third meeting with the parliamentarian, they have taken the criticism she's provided for their more detailed immigration provisions and applied that to Plan "C", or their third argument for immigration provisions that was in the House version of the bill.
Russia Orders More US Diplomats To Leave In Retaliatory Measure -Russia has booted more US diplomats from the country, days after the foreign ministry confirmed the United States had ordered an additional 27 Russian diplomats to leave by end of January (which would bring the recent total expelled to 50). Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova made the announcement Wednesday, awkwardly coming a day before US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to meet with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the Organization for Security and Cooperation on Europe (OSCE) summit in Stockholm. "We view the US demand as an act of expulsion and intend to resort to retaliatory measures," she vowed. "Members of the US Embassy in Russia, who have been on their mission here for more than three years, must leave Russia before January 31, 2022." Calling it an affront on "diplomatic norms" Zakharova said of the 27 diplomats expelled from the US: "Russia sent them there on their mission based on the staff policy of our ministry and the diplomatic service," according to TASS. "[Our] American partners devised for us how Russian diplomats should leave the United States by terminating their duties." "I would like to emphasize that the choice is not ours," she explained in Wednesday's briefing. "Our American partners have forced us to play that way. We have long and persistently tried to reason with them and still direct them to some kind of constructive solution to the issue, but they made their choice." However, Russia has held out that if Washington reverses its own latest decisions, Moscow too would not carry out the expulsion order. This comes after several similar tit-for-tat moves which has left both sides complaining about severe staff shortages inside their embassies, also as Russia struggles to maintain its consulates outside of D.C. as well.
Biden briefed by COVID team as omicron variant spreads in Australia and Europe - As more cases of the omicron variant are revealed around the world, President Biden was briefed Sunday by his COVID-19 response team, including his chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has not announced any cases of the omicron variant in the U.S., but Fauci said Sunday that it is inevitable that there will be confirmed cases at some point. The variant has already been identified in cases in Botswana, the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, Belgium, Israel, the Netherlands, Australia and Hong Kong.Scientists are not certain where the variant originated, but the mutations of the virus were first identified by scientists in South Africa and the World Health Organization deemed it a "variant of concern" on Friday, given its already rapid spread.The Netherlands identified 13 cases of the variant and Australia confirmed two cases, on Saturday, marking an even wider spread to other regions of the world. On Sunday, Canada announced it had detected two cases of the new variant.The cases in the Netherlands came from passengers on a flight coming back from South Africa, where 61 of the passengers aboard tested positive for COVID-19. The two cases in Australia came from passengers arriving from southern Africa, but it was not specified which country or countries they were returning from.The United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Israel, the European Union have already announced they have restricted travel from South Africa and several other countries in the region, though the World Health Organization has cautioned against imposing travel bans at this time.More countries, including New Zealand, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Saudi Arabia have also implemented travel restrictions.On Saturday, the U.K. announced stricter travel measures for all travelers. Now, a PCR test is required for anyone coming into the country by the end of the second day of arrival. Anyone who is a close contact of someone who tests positive for the omicron variant has to self-isolate for 10 days, regardless of vaccination status. Germany also announced new measures that anyone coming in from South Africa would have to quarantine for 14 days.
This Chart Explains President Biden’s Strange Remarks at Yesterday’s Press Conference on the Omicron Variant - Pam Martens -President Joe Biden clearly needs a new communications team that can explain to him the meaning of “under promise, outperform.” Biden began yesterday’s press conference on the newly discovered COVID variant, Omicron, stating that he had promised to always tell the American people the truth. Then he proceeded to deliver a pep talk devoid of hard evidence for the rosy promises he was making about his strategy for fighting the new Omicron variant.At one point, Biden told reporters that this Thursday he would be “putting forth a detailed strategy on how we’re going to fight COVID this winter – not with shutdowns or lockdowns, but with more widespread vaccinations, boosters and testing and more.” At this point, there is zero hard evidence that the current vaccines provide significant immunity against the Omicron variant. Scientists around the world have said that it will take two to three weeks to determine existing vaccine effectiveness against the new variant.A reporter asked Biden why he would take shutdowns and lockdowns off the table. Biden responded that if the American people are vaccinated and wearing their masks there’s no need for the lockdown, but as of Monday’s press conference, even Pfizer and Moderna, the makers of the two major vaccines used in the U.S., had no idea if their vaccines were effective against this new strain of COVID.Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla stated yesterday that it will take two to three weeks to be able to determine how well the Pfizer vaccine works against Omicron. Modernapublished a statement on the company’s website this past Friday which stated:“The recently described Omicron variant includes mutations seen in the Delta variant that are believed to increase transmissibility and mutations seen in the Beta and Delta variants that are believed to promote immune escape. The combination of mutations represents a significant potential risk to accelerate the waning of natural and vaccine-induced immunity.”Moderna further clarified its position in an interview in the Financial Times that was published early this morning, sending Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down more than 400 points before the stock market opened in New York.The Financial Times quoted Stéphane Bancel, CEO of Moderna, as stating:“There is no world, I think, where [the effectiveness of the current vaccines] is the same level…we had with [the] Delta [variant].”Bancel added:“I think it’s going to be a material drop. I just don’t know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I’ve talked to…are like, ‘This is not going to be good.’ ”
Judge halts Biden vaccine mandate for health workers in 10 states --A federal court on Monday temporarily halted the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate for health workers at hospitals that receive federal funding.The ruling by a Missouri-based federal judge applies to health care employees in the 10 states that sued to block the administration’s Nov. 5 rule. Those states are Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.U.S. District Judge Matthew Schelp, a Trump appointee, appeared persuaded by the states’ argument that the mandate would lead to staffing shortages.“The scale falls clearly in favor of healthcare facilities operating with some unvaccinated employees, staff, trainees, students, volunteers and contractors, rather than the swift, irremediable impact of requiring healthcare facilities to choose between two undesirable choices — providing substandard care or providing no healthcare at all,” Schelp wrote in a 32-page order.The ruling handed a temporary win — while the case proceeds — to vaccine-opposed workers at health care facilities that receive Medicaid or Medicaid funding in the 10 states. The state challengers sued in federal court just days after an agency of the Department of Health and Human Services put their vaccine rule in place. The states argued that the mandate encroaches on states' rights and exceeds the agency’s authority, and that its enactment failed to follow proper procedures.
Vaccine Politics Not Working to Biden Administration Advantage by Yves Smith - After repeatedly claiming that a Biden Administration would “follow the science” on Covid, it now appears to be hoist on its petard of instead relying on least effort approaches combined with better propaganda, aka placing all its bets on vaccines.These headlines illustrate the problem. The first is the lead in the Wall Street Journal; the second is from the Financial Times: It’s hard to know where to begin. First, as we’ve pointed out repeatedly, the officialdom has grossly oversold the vaccines, treating them as if they prevent contagion, as opposed to hospitalization and death. Mind you, the latter is important not just on an individual but also a societal level, to keep hospitals from imploding. But after the CDC denying the possibility of breakthrough cases and refusing to track them after its May “Mission Accomplished,” we’re now at the point where the press is writing about breakthrough hospitalizations. So the “get boosted to fight Omicron” is bonkers on two levels. First, “fight” to most people means “fight it spreading” which they haven’t under Delta. And of course it presupposes that the current vaccines would be effective against Omicron. We’ve said as soon as we started writing about Omicron that experts were very much in agreement that it had multiple signs of being able to substantially and likely even entirely evade the current vaccines as well as infection-acquired immunity. There’s already anecdata-level confirmation. The three first cases in Israel were all in vaccinated citizens. 13 members of the Portuguese soccer team Belenenses tested positive for Omicron after one recently returned from South Africa. All the team members were vaccinated.Mind you, it is not yet clear if Omicron will replace Delta or exist along side it, and how quickly Omicron will get established and spread. So there is some logic in pressing the public to get vaccinated and boosted, since the US looks to be moving into a winter Delta wave, at least in the northern part of the country.However, the messaging over the weekend continued to be upbeat about how well the current vaccines would work against Omicron, despite the lack of good reasons to think so and evidence of the reverse. I ran this embarrassing clip yesterday. It’s worth featuring it again to further identify Gottlieb with Pfizer-serving hopium: Gottlieb kept up his cheerleading Monday morning on CNBC: There’s a reasonable degree of confidence in vaccine circles that [with] at least three doses . . . the patient is going to have fairly good protection against this variant. On top of that, on Monday Biden himself stepped up to yet again try to act as if he’s in front of the Omicron situation, when he’s refusing to take the one action that could really matter, which is to clamp down hard on entry from overseas, which could be done via barring flights or mandatory quarantine (the US did bar entry from eight African countries but as we know Omicron is now in the UK, Netherlands, Portugal, Hong Kong…). But since the US refused to impose serious quarantines anytime earlier in this crisis, we don’t have the apparatus ready now.This is right at the top of Biden’s remarks, barely over a minute in, after saluting Thanksgiving, South African officials, and the WHO, just a minute in: But while we have that travel restrictions can slow the speed of Omnicron [sic], it cannot prevent it. But here’s what it does. It gives us time. It gives us time to take more actions, to move quicker, to make sure people understand you have to get your vaccine. You have to get the shot. You have to get the booster.
Biden Admin Unleashes Omicron Dragnet: CDC Demands Airlines Hand Over Names Of All Southern African Passengers - We can almost feel the xenophobia intensifying.As we wait for President Biden to confirm the new travel restrictions that have been reported Tuesday and Wednesday (the president is expected to announce them on Thursday) Reuters reported Wednesday morning that it has seen a copy of a letter from the CDC asking airlines to turn over the names of all passengers who traveled to the US from any of the southern African nations.Once it has all the names, the CDC plans to turn them over to state and local public health departments. These authorities may then require these travelers to be retested, or perhaps even ask them to quarantine - measures they intend to enforce. Keep in mind, the US still hasn't confirmed a single case of omicron.The south African countries in the blue ring believed to pose the highest risk of infection...despite the fact that the UK has reported the highest number of confirmed omicron cases with 22, while the Netherlands has confirmed cases of omicron stretching back at least two weeks ago. Evidence suggests the new variant has likely already gone global.This dichotomy between how the world is treating southern African countries vs. developed nations like the UK is making some people increasingly uncomfortable.Others have posited that the EU and US are using omicron as an excuse to tighten restrictions on the border and on society and businesses amid the EU's most recent resurgence in cases.Some 56 countries were reportedly implementing travel measures to guard against Omicron as of Nov. 28, the WHO said, and WHO head Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he was concerned that several member states were "introducing blunt, blanket measures", which "will only worsen inequities".In Germany, which is battling a surge in COVID cases and deaths, recently announced that four fully vaccinated people had tested positive for omicron in the south, but they had only moderate symptoms. The CDC lists about 80 foreign destinations as "Level Four" countries, the highest level of COVID transmissibility. The US discourages Americans from traveling to those destinations, and also would prefer if people who live in those countries don't travel to the US right now.
Biden details winter plan to combat COVID-19: No 'shutdowns or lockdowns' - President Biden further detailed his winter plan to combat COVID-19 within the United States in an op-ed Thursday, reiterating his vow that there would not be “shutdowns or lockdowns.” “We are going to fight COVID-19 not with shutdowns or lockdowns – but with more widespread vaccinations, boosters, testing and more. We will beat it back with science and speed, not chaos and confusion – just as we did in the spring and again with the more powerful delta variant in the summer and fall,” Biden wrote in his op-ed published in USA Today. Biden’s plan largely calls for a doubling down on getting the COVID-19 vaccine and booster shots for Americans who are eligible. He said the nationwide booster campaign would be expanded to incorporate more walk-in appointments, longer hours and weekends. He also noted that his administration would reach out to the more than 60 million Americans who have Medicare while pharmacies reach out via email and texts to tell their customers to get their vaccine doses. To accommodate those seeking to get vaccinated together, he also said that his administration would be launching family vaccination clinics so families could receive the vaccine at one spot. Biden also pledged that at-home COVID-19 test kits would be covered by insurance companies or provided free for people to pick up if they did not have private insurance coverage. The president also suggested that the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention may weigh in on ways for schools to remain open amid the COVID-19 pandemic as the country sees more cases from the newly detected omicron variant. Overnight Health Care — Presented by March of Dimes — Biden's winter... White House announces new aggressive steps to combat COVID-19 “Today, over 99% of schools are open, and we need to make sure we keep it that way this winter,” Biden wrote. “While vaccinating our kids is critical to keeping our schools open, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is also reviewing new approaches to keep our children in school instead of quarantining at home.” The winter plan comes as cases of the new omicron variant have been confirmed in multiple states, with Biden stressing that “while it is a cause for concern, it is not a cause for panic.” “Experts say that COVID-19 cases will continue to rise in the weeks ahead this winter, and that we will see more omicron cases here in the United States in the days, weeks and months ahead. Our best scientists and doctors are on the case and gathering data, but early indications are that our vaccines will provide a measure of protection against this strain,” Biden said.
Biden administration to America: Prepare to die from COVID-19 - Since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of COVID-19 a “variant of concern” on Friday, world governments have responded with essentially no measures to stop its global spread except for limited travel restrictions. As of Sunday evening, 159 cases of the Omicron variant have been sequenced on every habitable continent except South America. Much remains unknown about the variant, but initial data from southern Africa indicates that it is likely more transmissible than the Delta variant, which is itself far more transmissible than the wild type of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. In Gauteng Province, South Africa, where most Omicron cases have been detected, new hospitalizations have more than tripled in the past two weeks alone. Given that the Omicron variant possesses over 50 mutations, with 32 on the virus’ spike protein, many scientists have warned that it could be the most vaccine-resistant variant so far. Due to inadequate genomic sequencing programs in the United States, it is likely that the Omicron variant is already spreading undetected in the country. This coincides with a deepening surge of the Delta variant, which has killed over 165,000 Americans in the past four months and infected millions. The rapid spread of the dangerous new variant has been met with demands by scientists for urgent measures to stop the spread of the disease. But appearing on the Sunday morning talk shows, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the chief medical advisor to President Biden, rejected any lockdown measures, and even mask or vaccine mandates, to stop the spread of the Omicron variant and the pandemic more broadly. Under conditions in which over 414,000 Americans were officially infected with the Delta variant over the past week, Fauci told ABC News that it was “too early to say” whether such measures would be needed. Fauci made clear that the position of the White House is that nothing should be done until the Omicron variant has swept over the entire country.
Democrats livid over GOP's COVID-19 attacks on Biden - Democrats are up in arms this month over GOP charges that President Biden is to blame for the prolonged COVID-19 crisis. They argue that Republicans, from former President Trump to his most vocal allies in Congress and in state capitals, bear plenty of responsibility for public resistance to masks and vaccines, noting the opposition to those leading mitigation efforts comes overwhelmingly from the right. The criticism of masks and vaccines has sabotaged Biden’s efforts to get the nation past the pandemic, some argue. “They've done everything possible to ensure that we can't get past it," Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) said of the Republicans. "They've fought mask requirements, vaccine requirements. They've spread misinformation. They have amplified dangerous conspiracy theories. “There is one group to blame in this country for the continued spread of COVID,” she added, “and that's those actors who have done each and every one of those things.” The pandemic is a factor in Biden’s falling approval ratings and the worries Democrats have over next year’s midterm elections. Pandemic fatigue is a huge political problem for the party, which feels as if it faces a Catch-22 since the pandemic is less likely the end the more people avoid vaccinations or even booster shots. Biden and his health team are scrambling to contain the spread of the virus, an effort complicated by the recent arrival of the new omicron variant, which originated in South Africa and surfaced this week in several states. As health experts race to determine the severity of the new threat, GOP leaders have put the fault squarely on Biden, accusing the president of politicizing the crisis with vaccine mandates while failing to honor a central campaign promise of bringing the virus under control. “I know President Biden promised America that he could handle COVID,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told reporters Friday in the Capitol. “More people have died from COVID this year than last year.” GOP lawmakers, conservative news outlets and right-wing activists have led the charge against the push for universal vaccines and mask requirements — steps seen as vital, in the eyes of the country's top public health experts, for containing the global pandemic. Most recently, a handful of Senate conservatives threatened to shut down the government in an effort to defund Biden’s vaccine mandate for private employers. And House Republicans voted near-unanimously against that government funding measure, many of them to protest the same vaccine requirement.Other GOP leaders have publicly backed vaccines, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), a polio survivor who has aired public service messages pressing for vaccinations. A majority of Senate Republicans also disliked the strategy by a minority of their members to hold up this week’s funding bill. Yet a majority in the GOP in Congress also appeal solidly against the vaccine mandates Biden has pursued for government workers, businesses and healthcare workers, and it is increasingly moving to the center of the political debate. “We should not fund tyranny over the American citizens,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said Thursday just before the House vote on the funding bill. The opposition has sparked an outcry from the president's Democratic allies on Capitol Hill, who are firing back at the Republicans for doing too little to encourage their supporters to do their part to contain the virus’s spread.
National Guard Bureau chief tests positive for COVID-19 -National Guard Bureau Chief Gen. Dan Hokanson is in isolation after testing positive for COVID-19 this week, the military announced Friday.Hokanson is “working remotely and isolating himself from contact with others,” following the positive test, National Guard Bureau spokesman Wayne Hall said in a statement.All other members of the bureau staff are continuing with their duties under the Pentagon’s existing coronavirus protocols and continue to be tested as required, Hall added.Hokanson's test comes after he traveled to Europe last week to visit Guard troops for Thanksgiving. Stops in Europe included Kosovo, Poland, Spain and a refueling stop in Ireland, with a return to Washington on Nov. 26. At "every stop along the way" Hokanson was tested and each came back negative, Hall said. The new case comes as the state of Oklahoma is in the midst of a fight with the Pentagon and the Biden administration over a coronavirus vaccine mandate for the National Guard.The Pentagon in late August required vaccinations for the military, but in early November, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) asked Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to exempt his state’s National Guard from the vaccine mandate. Stitt also ordered a memo stipulating that no member of the Guard is required to get vaccinated. Austin on Tuesday pushed back with his own memo stating that the Guard and Reserve service members who do not comply with the mandate can face loss of pay and will be marked absent without cause from drills and training — a move which would impact days service members accrue towards retirement.
The Campaign to Protect Christmas Profits from Omicron by Yves Smith --Not only have our soi-disant leaders apparently not learned anything since the start of Covid, they are acting as if the disease will bend to their wishful thinking and commercial/political needs. As we’ll explain below, the Anglosphere press and quite a few public health figures who ought to know better are putting the most possible spin possible on Omicron. This is the worst possible reflex now, just as it was in late January-February 2020. When you are dealing with an event with potentially disastrous consequences, like a reactor going critical or water at an ocean shore pulling way way way back, potentially signaling the next wave is a tsunami, the prudent response is to assume the worst and act accordingly. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, with co-authors Joseph Norman and Yaneer Bar-Yam, explained clearly on January 26, 2020 that the possibility of a pandemic (notice they were using the “p” word long before it made its way into respectable conversations) meant it was of vital importance to act quickly and aggressively. I will take the liberty of quoting liberally, but strongly urge you to re (or re-read) the entire short piece in full: Clearly, we are dealing with an extreme fat-tailed process owing to an increased connectivity, which increases the spreading in a nonlinear way [1], [2]. Fat tailed processes have special attributes, making conventional risk-management approaches inadequate.The general (non-naive) precautionary principle [3] delineates conditions where actions must be taken to reduce risk of ruin, and traditional cost-benefit analyses must not be used. These are ruin problems where, over time, exposure to tail events leads to a certain eventual extinction. While there is a very high probability for humanity surviving a single such event, over time, there is eventually zero probability of surviving repeated exposures to such events. While repeated risks can be taken by individuals with a limited life expectancy, ruin exposures must never be taken at the systemic and collective level. In technical terms, the precautionary principle applies when traditional statistical averages are invalid because risks are not ergodic.Next we address the problem of naive empiricism in discussions related to this problem.
- Spreading rate: Historically based estimates of spreading rates for pandemics in general, and for the current one in particular, underestimate the rate of spread because of the rapid increases in transportation connectivity over recent years….
- Reproductive ratio: Estimates of the virus’s reproductive ratio R0—the number of cases one case generates on average over the course of its infectious period in an otherwise uninfected population—are biased downwards….
- Mortality rate: Mortality and morbidity rates are also downward biased, due to the lag between identified cases, deaths and reporting of those deaths.
- Increasingly Fatal Rapidly Spreading Emergent Pathogens: With increasing transportation we are close to a transition to conditions in which extinction becomes certain both because of rapid spread and because of the selective dominance of increasingly worse pathogens…
- Fatalism and inaction: Perhaps due to these challenges, a common public health response is fatalistic, accepting what will happen because of a belief that nothing can be done. This response is incorrect as the leverage of correctly selected extraordinary interventions can be very high.
Congress ‘Asleep at the Switch’ as Biden Continues Trump-Era Ploy to Privatize Medicare --A Trump-era pilot program that could result in the complete privatization of traditional Medicare in a matter of years is moving ahead under the Biden administration, a development that—despite its potentially massive implications for patients across the U.S.—has received scant attention from the national press or Congress.“If left unchecked, the Direct Contracting program will hand traditional Medicare off to Wall Street investors.”On Tuesday, a group of physicians from around the nation will try to grab the notice of lawmakers, the Biden White House, and the public by traveling to Washington, D.C. and demanding that the Health and Human Services Department immediately stop the Medicare experiment, which is known as Direct Contracting (DC).The doctors plan to present HHS with a petition signed by more than 1,500 physicians who believe the DC pilot threatens “the future of Medicare as we know it.”Advocates have been publicly sounding the alarm about the DC program for months, warning that it could fully hand traditional Medicare over to Wall Street investors and other profit-seekers, resulting in higher costs for patients and lower-quality care.“Everything we know about Direct Contracting should be cause to halt the pilot,” Diane Archer, the founder of Just Care USA and the senior adviser on Medicare at Social Security Works, toldCommon Dreams in an email. “Direct Contracting effectively eliminates the more cost-effective traditional Medicare program designed to ensure that people with complex health conditions get the care they need.”“The Direct Contracting experiment is likely to be both a healthcare policy and a political nightmare,” Archer argued. “We already know from the Medicare Advantage experiment that Direct Contracting won’t save money, nor will it be able to show improved quality.”
Sanders urges Biden to delay Medicare premium hike linked to Alzheimer's drug -- Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is calling on the Biden administration to delay an increase in Medicare premiums for 2022 that is tied in part to a controversial, pricey Alzheimer's drug.In a letter sent to President Biden on Friday, Sanders called on him to "prevent the outrageous increase in Medicare Part B premiums associated with the potential approval of the Alzheimer’s drug Aduhelm."He said the administration should delay Medicare’s approval for use of Aduhelm until it is deemed safe and effective, and take executive action to reinstate and expand the reasonable pricing clause requiring drug makers that receive federal funding to charge reasonable prices for prescription drugs and treatment Medicare Part B, which covers services like doctors office visits, will increase by $21.60, from $148.50 in 2021 to $170.10 in 2022. Officials said that is one of the largest increases in recent years. About half of that increase is due to contingency planning to make sure the program has enough money to pay for Aduhelm if Medicare decides to cover it.The drug, manufactured by Biogen, has drawn controversy both for its price, at $56,000 per year, and because the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved it despite doubts from experts about its effectiveness. Two House committees have launched investigations into the FDA’s decision, and acting FDA Commissioner Janet Woodcock requested a federal probe into the approval process. Medical centers like the Cleveland Clinic and Mount Sinai Health System declared they would not administer Aduhelm, and the Department of Veterans Affairs and other insurers did not put the drug on their VA National Formulary.
Republican Lauren Boebert incites fascistic violence against Democrat Ilhan Omar during recent campaign event - Last week, video emerged of fascist Republican lawmaker Lauren Boebert making racist death threats and “jokingly” accusing Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota of being a terrorist, prompting widespread outrage on social media along with calls from Democratic party-aligned organizations to censure and strip Boebert of her committee assignments. In the video, posted by the Twitter account PatriotTakes, Boebert is shown recounting a false story in which describes a “Jihad Squad moment,” with Omar on an elevator. “I was getting into an elevator with one of my staffers,” recounted Boebert. “You know, we’re leaving the Capitol and we’re going back to my office and we get an elevator and I see a Capitol police officer running to the elevator. I see fret all over his face, and he’s reaching, and the door’s shutting, like I can’t open it, like what’s happening. I look to my left, and there she is. Ilhan Omar. And I said, ‘Well, she doesn’t have a backpack, we should be fine.’” Backing Boebert’s comments this past Friday was Pueblo County Republican chairman Robert Leverington, “I think that Congresswoman Boebert probably expressed the sentiment of many Americans,” he continued. “This Congresswoman Omar has been poking her finger in the eyes of many Americans over the last couple of years, and we’re sick of it.” Replying to Boebert’s racist and dangerous incitement, Omar posted on Twitter that Boebert was a “buffoon” and that the “whole story is made up. Sad she thinks bigotry gets her clout.” “Anti-Muslim bigotry isn’t funny & shouldn’t be normalized,” she wrote. “Congress can’t be a place where hateful and dangerous Muslims (sic) tropes get no condemnation.” On Friday, Omar called for Boebert to be reprimanded by House leaders. “Saying I am a suicide bomber is no laughing matter,” wrote Omar.
Prosecutor: Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein acted as 'partners in crime' --A prosecutor called Ghislaine Maxwell and deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein “partners in crime” as Maxwell's sex trafficking trial began in New York on Monday.Assistant U.S. Attorney Lara Pomerantz, who delivered the prosecution's opening statement, said that Maxwell and Epstein worked together to lure in girls as young as 14 to "so-called massages," The Associated Pressreported. The victims were given money and gifts as Maxwell “helped normalize abusive sexual conduct” by befriending them, taking them shopping and asking about their personal lives in an effort to put them at ease, the prosecution added.“She was in on it from the start. The defendant and Epstein lured their victims with a promise of a bright future, only to sexually exploit them,” Pomerantz said, per the AP.“The defendant was the lady of the house,” she added, saying that Maxwell “was involved in every detail of Epstein’s life."Bobbi Sternheim, Maxwell's attorney, argued that she is being made a “scapegoat for a man who behaved badly,” according to the AP.“The charges against Ghislaine Maxwell are for things that Jeffrey Epstein did, but she is not Jeffrey Epstein,” Sternheim argued, Reuters reported.Four accusers, in addition to family members of victims and former Epstein employees are set to testify in the trial, which is expected to last until at least January, Reuters added.Maxwell has pleaded not guilty to six counts of sex trafficking as well as other crimes committed between 1994 and 2004.
Ghislaine Maxwell Joined In Sexual Encounters With Epstein, Accuser Testifies- The second day of the Ghislaine Maxwell trial started where the first day ended: with direct testimony from Jeffrey Epstein’s pilot, Lawrence P. Visoski, Jr. U.S. Attorney Lara Pomerantz continued to ask Visoski how Epstein’s various residences, both domestic and international, were laid out. Visoski had a very clear memory of each, including at times, square footage. The jury often saw photos of the lavish homes. Then Pomerantz asked him questions about the layouts of Epstein’s various aircraft. Visoski specifically mentioned two types of couches on Epstein’s Boeing 727. The jury viewed photographs of the circular couch in which Visoski called the “round room.” While Visoski often had meet-and-greets with passengers, he testified that the door to the cockpit was always closed during flights. Visoski testified that he wrote up passenger manifests for each flight. Sometimes he only knew a passenger’s first name and if he didn’t know any name at all, he simply wrote male or female. In order to maintain anonymity, Judge Alison Nathan has allowed witnesses to use either solely their first name or a made-up one. One such witness will be Jane, who is an alleged victim of Epstein and Maxwell. Her alleged abuse started at age 14. Visoski recalled meeting Jane once, aboard a plane, while it was still on the ground. Upon cross-examination, defense attorney Christian Everdell had Visoski look at passenger manifests (not shown to the jury) where Jane’s actual name was listed, but with no last name, for three flights. Visoski confirmed that there was an employee with the same first name and spelling. Visoski couldn’t confirm which one was on the flights. Upon further cross-examination, Visoski testified that he never saw an underage girl on a flight without a parent, he had various interactions with passengers, and never saw any sexual activity, or evidence of sexual activity, on the planes. Visoski also testified that he was never told by Epstein to remain in the cockpit and had the freedom to get coffee from the galley, which was located in the center of Epstein’s Boeing 727, and to use the lavatory in Epstein’s Gulfstream, which was located in the back of the cabin, far from the cockpit.
The FAA accidentally disclosed more than 2,000 flight records associated with Jeffrey Epstein's private jets - In January 2020, Insider asked the Federal Aviation Administration for all the agency's flight records, including departure and arrival data, associated with a fleet of private jets owned by Jeffrey Epstein. Filed under the Freedom of Information Act, our request seemed to have a decent chance of success: The agency in 2011 released its entire database of US-based flights to The Wall Street Journal. In March 2020, however, the FAA denied our request, saying that "the responsive records originate from an investigative file" and were therefore exempt from disclosure. The agency cited Exemption 7(A), which Congress designed to shield records that were "compiled for law enforcement" and "could reasonably be expected to interfere with enforcement proceeding." The FAA did not specify which enforcement proceeding the records might interfere with; Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein's ex-girlfriend and confidante, faces a trial over sex-trafficking charges this month. But despite its original denial, the FAA inadvertently mailed Insider a portion of Epstein's flight records alongside correspondence for an unrelated FOIA request earlier this year. The records contained data on 2,300 flights among four private jets registered to Epstein between 1998 and 2020. Most of them had appeared in Insider's searchable database of all known flights connected to Epstein. The new FAA records also reveal 704 previously unknown flights taken by Epstein's planes. These include hundreds of trips from a three-year gap in the public record, from 2013 to 2016, when the jets' movements were unaccounted for. The new flight records do not include the names of passengers, but they may offer clues about the whereabouts of Epstein's close associates. Maxwell was a frequent passenger aboard the disgraced financier's jets. They corroborate Insider's reporting on Epstein's travel patterns as documented in court records and flight-signal data. A searchable database now contains 2,618 flights made by Epstein's private jets from 1995 to July 6, 2019.
Wall Street Has Deployed a Dirty Tricks Playbook Against Whistleblowers for Decades – Now the Secrets Are Spilling Out -By Pam Martens: For more than two decades, the general counsels of Wall Street’s mega banks have been meeting together secretly once a year at ritzy hotels and resorts around the world. This would appear to be a clear violation of anti-trust law but since Wall Street’s revolving door has compromised the U.S. Department of Justice over much of that time span, there has been no pushback from the Justice Departmentto shut down these clandestine meetings. Wall Street insiders say that among the top agenda items at this annual confab are strategy sessions on how to keep Congress from enacting legislation that would bring an end to Wall Street’s privatized justice system called mandatory arbitration. This system allows themost serially corrupt industry in America to effectively lock the nation’s courthouse doors to claims of fraud from its workers and customers. This private justice system also keeps the details of many of Wall Street’s systemic crimes out of the press.Wall Street’s McJustice system is just one element of a fully-loaded dirty tricks playbook that Wall Street uses to crush an honest worker who is intent on holding the firm to account. The playbook includes gaslighting; a campaign of ordered ostracizing by coworkers; demotion; an internal investigation with a preordained outcome to malign the reputation of the whistleblower; blackballing in the industry; and, frequently, the ultimate humiliation of being escorted out of the building by security guards. As the dirty campaign unfolds in front of colleagues, it achieves the intended additional goal of silencing any coworkers who might be thinking about reporting illegal activities.Following this psychological warfare inside the Wall Street firm, the honest whistleblower will be met with the next chapter of the sociopathic playbook: Wall Street’s star chamber (mandatory arbitration) tribunals if he or she attempts to get compensated for damages, lost compensation and so forth. The Wall Street firms frequently bring current employees who were friends with the fired whistleblower to testify to outrageous lies about the honest worker in an effort to inflict more emotional damage to ensure this individual will look for future employment anywhere but Wall Street. […] There is now an attorney whistleblower, Shaquala Williams, filing a lawsuit in federal district court in Manhattan in which she asserts that JPMorgan Chase is effectively making a monkey out of the Justice Department by issuing sham reports of its compliance with its non-prosecution agreement. Now we have another attorney, Oliver Budde, willing to put his name to a statement that there’s a conspiracy surrounding Barclays’ non-prosecution agreement with the Justice Department.Maybe it’s time for an independent Special Counsel to be appointed to investigate these non-prosecution agreements. We learned through Frontline’s investigation about how Obama’s Justice Department was investigating Wall Street’s crimes from the 2008 financial crisis. Frontline reported that there were “no investigations going on. There were no subpoenas, no document reviews, no wiretaps.”
Industry braces for another fight over IRS tax reporting plan — Financial services industry lobbyists are gearing up to fight another effort by lawmakers to make banks and credit unions report more account information to the Internal Revenue Service.Senate Democrats are considering narrowing reporting requirements to business-related income to sidestep consumer privacy concerns that doomed an earlier version, according to sources following behind-the-scenes discussions on Capitol Hill. Industry officials say they would remain strongly opposed because they don't want customers to view them as government spies.“Regardless of [the] latest tweaking,” the proposal is “fundamentally flawed,” Paul Merski, the executive vice president of congressional relations and strategy for the Independent Community Bankers of America, said in an email.
CFPB pledges to root out illegal overdraft fee practices -Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra announced a crackdown on large banks that are heavily reliant on overdraft fees and said the bureau will go after individual executives that oversee illegal overdraft practices. Chopra said Wednesday that large financial institutions should expect enhanced supervision and enforcement scrutiny of overdraft and nonsufficient funds fees. The bureau also may issue policy guidance outlining what overdraft practices it considers to be unlawful, he said. The intent of the CFPB's initiative appears to be identifying practices that are deceptive or otherwise violate consumer protection law.
Progressives urge bank regulators to toughen climate change policies — Progressive Democrats on the House Financial Services Committee urged top financial policymakers Wednesday to be more aggressive in combating risks from climate change.The Biden administration and Federal Reserve have already taken heat from Republicans for recommendations and research on mitigating the impact of global warming on financial institutions. But at a hearing with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, some lawmakers suggested the recent moves are not enough. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., questioned Powell over whether the Fed will join upcoming guidance written Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on how large banks should factor climate change into risk management.
Republican States Could Pull $600B From Anti-Fossil Fuel Banks - A coalition of 15 Republican State Treasurers, Auditors, and Comptrollers of states representing over $600 billion in public assets – have recently said their states could potentially reduce future business with banks that cut off financing for oil, gas, and coal, West Virginia State Treasurer Riley Moore says. The coalition “will begin considering whether financial institutions are engaged in boycotts of America’s traditional energy industries when awarding state banking contracts,” Moore said, announcing that the state treasurers had sent an open letter to the banking industry.In the letter, the state officials say, “We are writing to notify you that we will be taking collective action in response to the ongoing and growing economic boycott of traditional energy production industries by U.S. financial institutions.”“We cannot allow companies that have a stated goal of harming key industries or the economies of our states to then turn around and try to profit from our states’ finances,” Moore said in a statement.“Woke capitalists and globalist actors have been using the guise of climate change to press for anti-American reforms that reduce our country’s competitiveness against hostile nations like Russia and China,” Moore added.“While we understand that you may be under tremendous undue pressure from the Biden Administration, we are simply asking financial institutions to award financing based on an unbiased, non-political basis,” the officials say in their letter to the banking industry.The Republican officials overseeing state finances are pushing back against the growing ESG trend in the banking industry to shun funding for the fossil fuel industry.Banks worldwide and in the United States have announced in recent years restrictions to their financing not only for coal projects but also for some forms of oil and gas extraction amid heightened investor pressure to shun fossil fuels. In the United States, Goldman Sachs said in December 2019 that it would decline to finance new Arctic oil exploration and production and new thermal coal mine development or strip mining. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan have also said they will stop financing new oil and gas projects in the Arctic.
Institutions buy into shale gas stocks in Q3 as commodity prices shoot higher - Led by Blackstone Inc., several private equity firms and Stanford University’s endowment fund began to dip into pure-play shale gas stocks in the third quarter as commodity prices for natural gas shot higher. Overall, institutional investors were net buyers of pure-play shale drillers as share prices climbed higher. Hefty purchases of stakes in Appalachian shale gas producers EQT Corp. and Southwestern Energy Co. led the action, according to third-quarter 13-F filings with the SEC that were analyzed by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Private equity fund manager Yorktown Partners LLC was the largest single buyer in the third quarter, taking a new nearly 10% stake in Southwestern Energy for $557 million, followed by Blackstone’s new 2.5% stake. Although Blackstone has 31% of its $43 billion stock portfolio invested in energy issues, the fund managers have avoided pure-play gas producers until 2021, according to Market Intelligence data. In addition to stakes in EQT and Southwestern, Blackstone disclosed Nov. 1 that it holds an 11% stake in Chesapeake Energy Corp. The previous approach to pure-play gas producers was in sharp contrast to Blackstone’s heavy backing of private oil and gas companies that it hopes to eventually sell. In the fourth quarter, for example, Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LP was part of a cash and stock deal to sell GEP Haynesville LLC to Southwestern for $1.85 billion, including 99 million shares of Southwestern stock. That deal is also expected to close in the fourth quarter. Blackstone also bought a new 2.6% stake in EQT, the U.S.’ largest natural gas producer, during the third quarter. Stanford University’s endowment fund, Stanford Management Co., was the second-largest buyer of EQT stock in the quarter, picking up a 2.2% stake. Two quantitative hedge funds, Millenium Management LLC and Renaissance Technologies LLC, decided not to hang around to see if the $9 billion combination of gas producer Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. and oil driller Cimarex Energy Co. works out. Both sold all their shares in what was Cabot stock before the Oct. 1 closing date and the christening of the company’s new name, Coterra Energy Inc. As the hedge funds were selling Cabot’s stock before the deal closed, Australian investment manager Antipodes Partners Ltd. gave the merger a vote of confidence, picking up a new 2% stake in Cabot-turned-Coterra. At the same time, Antipodes purchased a new 0.8% stake in EQT. The purchases marked Antipodes’ first investments in U.S. shale gas in years, according to Market Intelligence data and SEC filings.*
Microsoft CEO Nadella Dumped 50% of his MSFT Stock, Following in Elon Musk’s Footsteps Microsoft disclosed in an SEC filing on Wednesday before Thanksgiving, when no one was paying attention and when this would likely get shuffled under the rug, that CEO Satya Nadella had sold on November 22 not 1% of his holdings or 5% of his holdings of Microsoft stock [MSFT] and not 10% of his holdings, but 50.2% of his holdings in numerous trades on one heck of a busy day.Of the 1.67 million shares he held in the morning of November 22 going into this wholesale dumping exercise, he sold 838,584 shares, and at the end of the day, his stake had shriveled to 816,101 shares. The proceeds from the share dump totaled $285.3 million. Timing of the share dump was perfect.The run-up in the share price has been huge. Since Nadella was appointed CEO of Microsoft in February 2014, following the retirement of Steve Ballmer, shares of Microsoft have risen by 800%, in a near perfect and dizzying exponential curve that defied gravity, with well over half that gain in the last 20 months, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.5 trillion. This exponential curve came after the stock languished for over a decade 50% below the dotcom bubble peak.
Junk Bonds, Leveraged Loans, Buyouts by PE Firms, All Blow Past Records in Massive Chase for Yield amid Fed’s Easy Money By Wolf Richter -- It has been manna from the heavens, in terms of what the Fed’s policies have done for companies that feed on investors’ hunger for junk-rated debt and high-risk bets. Private-equity firms have announced $944 billion in buyouts in the US so far this year, by far the highest ever for any full year, and up by 86% from the prior record in 2015, according to Dealogic, cited by the Wall Street Journal: Among the biggest deal announcements over the past few weeks:
- PE firms Bain Capital and Hellman & Friedman, to buy Athenahealth, $17 billion including debt.
- KKR and Global Infrastructure Partners, to buy data-center operator CyrusOne, nearly $15 billion including debt.
- Advent International Corp. and Permira, to buy McAfee Corp., $11.8 billion.
In 2021 so far, PE firms have raised $315 billion in capital to plow into acquisitions in North America, which increased their available pile of cash for this to a record $756 billion, according to data from Preqin, cited by the WSJ. And they are continuing to raise mega-funds.When PE firms engage in a leveraged buyout, they use some equity capital but fund most of the acquisition by having the acquired company borrow the funds itself via issuance of leveraged loans or junk bonds – hence “leveraged buyout” (LBO). The PE firms thereby shuffle the risks off to investors in those debt instruments.Following the Fed’s yield repression, there has been ravenous appetite for this type of risky debt that enabled PE firms to go out and splurge on these buyouts.The issuance of junk bonds and leveraged loans soared to $1.02 trillion in 2021 through November 12, beating by far the full-year record established in 2017 ($780 billion), “as speculative-rated companies have amassed cheap funding from yield-hungry investors,” according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.Leveraged loans issued amounted to a record of $576 billion (red). These are loans by junk-rated companies that are too risky for banks to hold, and so banks sell them to investors, including as CLOs. Junk bonds issued amounted to a record $445 billion (blue):The amount of leveraged loans issued to fund buyouts soared to $305 billion in 2021 through November 12, easily beating the full-year record of 2018 ($275 billion), according to S&P Global. Of that $305 billion, a record $224 billion was borrowed by the acquired companies themselves to fund their own leveraged buyout.The amount of junk bonds issued to fund buyouts through November 12 reached $103 billion, less than $1 billion below the full-year record of 2014:
Satyajit Das: Fintech’s ‘Flim-Flam’ Innovation Games - - Investment in fin-tech (the untidy agglomeration of finance and technology) has reached a record $91.5 billion, double that of 2020. In the last quarter, there were over 40 fintech unicorns (start-ups valued at over $1 billion). The sector now attracts around 20% of all venture capital. But its looks remarkably like a repeat of the late 1990s, when investors made ill-fated bets on online finance.Fintech consists of traditional banking products conveniently packaged up and delivered via an Internet platform or App. Examples include payments (online payment firms like Square or Stripe); lending (supply chain finance (the late Greensill Capital); peer-to-peer lending; buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) or point-of-sale (POS) financing, such as Afterpay, Affirm, Klarna); and deposit taking (online banking start-ups). The Fintech recipe is simple: take a function, digitise it, toss in a little jargon – ‘financial engineering’, ‘technological disruption’. Season generously with mystique; add some high profile spruikers or fawning media endorsements. Stir and then serve. The rules of the game are straightforward. First, disguise the true function. Exploiting disclosure loopholes,supply chain finance helps businesses treat borrowings as accounts payable on the balance sheet rather than debt, improving liquidity and reducing leverage. Unfortunately, it leaves investors and creditors bearing bigger losses when the business finally collapse, as happened with Spain’s Abengoa in 2015, Carillion in 2018and NMC Health in 2020. BNPL is nothing more than unsecured personal finance.Second, mask the true economics. For example, in supply chain financing and BNPL, the seller of goods or services receives the sales price less a discount immediately from the financier who is paid back in deferred instalments by the buyer. A 4% discount, a typical BNPL charge to the seller, paid back over two-months translates into usurious funding costs of over 26% per annum. It helps to obscure how the cost is borne. In the case of BNPL, the retailer not the purchaser appears to bear the financing cost -the discount. But if they want to maintain margins, business must put up overall prices, penalising cash buyers who effectively subsidise BNPL users.Third, find an attractive demographic. Supply chain finance and peer-to-peer lending targets weaker borrowers. BNPL is aimed at younger, less financially literate clientele, attuned to a world of free everything. Appeals to ‘democratising capital’ can’t hurt.Fourth, find a lightly regulated lacunae of finance. Pressure to embrace innovation and facilitate the flow of credit has led to the concept of a ‘regulatory sandbox’, where fintech firms can test ‘innovative’ concepts without stringent rules. Fifth, increase risk to boost profitability, such as making risky loans, or ignore earnings altogether – few fintech’s are actually profitable. BNPL does not make money or lacks a clear pathway to profitability, onceinterchange, network fees, issuer processing fee, credit losses and funding are considered.Sixth, ensure that the real risks remain unknown unknown. Fintech lenders frequently undertake soft credit checks and minimal authentication. Former FSA chief Lord Adair Turner argued that the losses which will emerge from peer-to-peer lending will make the worst bankers look like lending geniuses.Seventh, solicit investors paranoid about digital disruption whose phones are generally smarter than they are. The reasons for mental dysfunction don’t matter but look for: search for high returns and growth, befuddlement about rapidly changing technology, wealth and confidence gained from previous successes or shame at missing out on a ‘ten-bagger’ (10 times increase on investment), faith in unending state underwriting of asset prices and, of course, TINA (there is no alternative).
Fee income, reserve releases among industry bright spots, FDIC says -— Higher fee income, a modest bounce- back in margins and lower credit costs helped banks overcome rising expenses and other obstacles, according to a closer look at bank's third-quarter results issued Tuesday by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. U.S. banks brought in $69.5 billion in net income in the third quarter, slightly down from theprior quarter but up nearly 36% from the same period last year, according to the FDIC's latest Quarterly Banking Profile.Noninterest income rose 4.7% from the year-earlier period to $76 billion. Growth in interchange fee income and investment banking income were major contributors. More than 57% of all financial institutions reported higher noninterest income.
FDIC: Problem Banks Declined, Residential REO Declined in Q3 --The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2021 this morning: Quarterly net income rose $18.4 billion (35.9 percent) to $69.5 billion from the same period one year ago. ... Total assets increased $462.6 billion (2 percent) from second quarter 2021 to $23.3 trillion. Securities rose $225 billion (3.9 percent), while cash and balances due from depository institutions rose $126.8 billion (3.6 percent). Growth in mortgage-backed securities (up $101.9 billion, or 3 percent) and U.S. Treasury securities (up $99.3 billion, or 8.5 percent) continued to drive quarterly increases in total securities. Loans and securities with maturities longer than 5 years now make up almost a third (31.3 percent) of total assets, up from 28 percent in fourth quarter 2019. Loans that were 90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status (i.e., noncurrent loans) continued to decline (down $13.2 billion, or 10.8 percent) from first quarter 2021. The noncurrent rate for total loans declined 12 basis points from the previous quarter to 1.01 percent. Net charge-offs also continued to decline (down $8.3 billion, or 53.2 percent) from a year ago. The total net charge-off rate dropped 30 basis points to 0.27 percent—the lowest level on record. The FDIC reported the number of problem banks declined to 46. The number of FDIC-insured institutions declined from 4,951 in second quarter 2021 to 4,914. During third quarter 2021, three new banks opened, 39 institutions merged with other FDIC-insured institutions, one bank ceased operations, and no banks failed. The number of banks on the FDIC’s “Problem Bank List” declined by ten from second quarter to 46, the lowest level since QBP data collection began in 1984. Total assets of problem banks increased $4.8 billion (10.5 percent) from second quarter to $50.6 billion.This graph from the FDIC shows the number of problem banks and assets at 51 institutions. Note: The number of assets for problem banks increased significantly back in 2018 when Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas was added to the list (it must still be on the list given the assets of problem banks). The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) declined from $1.37 billion in Q3 2020 to $0.79 billion in Q3 2021. This is the lowest level of REOs in many years. (Probably declined sharply due to foreclosure moratoriums, forbearance programs and house price increases). This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.
Fannie, Freddie approved to back loans of nearly $1 million - The mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be able to back loans worth nearly $1 million in some of the most expensive U.S. housing markets, their regulator said Tuesday. Reflecting the surge in home prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, Fannie and Freddie will be able to buy loans of up to $970,800 in areas including San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York, the Federal Housing Finance Agency announced. The increased loan limits apply to single-family residences. Shares of Fannie and Freddie both rose about 14% to 99 cents and $1, respectively, in New York trading as of 2:15 p.m.
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in October - Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 1.46% in October, from 1.62% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 3.05% in October 2020. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 4.02% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.25% in September). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (2% of portfolio), 6.90% are seriously delinquent (down from 7.21%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 1.17% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.31%). So, Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.
Foreclosure Looms for Homeowners Who Thought They’d Won, Thanks to Top New York Court Ruling - Christine Fife was “speechless with joy” when she won her foreclosure case in January 2020, she recalled, believing her decade under threat of foreclosure in her Upper West Side condo was finally over.Now, though, Fife is once again facing the seizure of the apartment she has owned since 1990.In February 2021, New York’s top court issued a decision that eliminated a path that New York homeowners had used for years to fight foreclosure.The decision in Freedom Mortgage Corporation v. Engel allowed Fife’s lender to renew its foreclosure suit against her.“They said it was OK. How can they change their mind?” Fife asked during an interview with New York Focus and THE CITY.Across New York State, homeowners who believed that their cases had been settled in their favor are now once again facing foreclosure due to the Engel decision. Many are in danger of losing their homes, even as two bills aimed at protecting owners wend their way through the state Legislature.In New York, if a borrower misses a mortgage payment, the lender is allowed to demand the entire remaining balance immediately and then move to foreclose after 120 days, if the money owed remains unpaid..But a lender must start the legal proceedings within six years of first demanding full payment, or the suit becomes invalid.Until recently, the clock kept ticking until the lender informed the borrower that they were no longer seeking foreclosure. In Fife’s case, the lender had never done so. The bank sued Fife twice: first in 2010, a case the lender claims it later voluntarily withdrew, and again in 2017.Her lawyers, representing Fife pro bono, successfully argued that the bank’s second foreclosure suit was barred by the six-year limit and got it dismissed.But the Engel decision changed the rules. The Court of Appeals found that voluntarily ending a foreclosure suit stops the clock on the six-year time limit — even if the homeowner is never notified. The court’s ruling applies retroactively to any foreclosure cases ongoing or still open to appeal at the time the decision was issued.Following the ruling, many foreclosures that expired under the six-year limit have been reopened or appealed to higher courts. Holly Meyer, a Suffolk County lawyer who represented one of the defendants in the Engel case, estimated that the number of affected homeowners could be in the tens of thousands.
Black Knight: Number of Mortgages in Forbearance Increased Slightly - This data is as of November 23rd. From Andy Walden at Black Knight: November Forbearance Exits Steady Heading Into Thanksgiving: Active forbearance plan numbers remained relatively steady heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, holding true to the established mid-month pattern. According to our McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking dataset, the number of active forbearance plans increased by 1,000 this week. A decline among FHA/VA loans (-4,000) was offset by another 5,000 rise in plan volumes among portfolio and PLS mortgages as GSE plans held steady. Both plan extensions and renewals remained steady, but low, in keeping with the typical mid-month lull.br />As of November 23, 1.01 million mortgage holders (1.9%) of mortgage holders, remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, including 1.2% of GSE, 3.0% of FHA/VA and 2.5% of portfolio held and privately securitized loans. Overall, the number of forbearance plans is still down by 214,000 (-17%) from the same time last month, with the potential for additional improvements as we enter December. New plan starts, which have been relatively flat since the end of March, jumped almost 8,000 week over week, a number that will bear closer scrutiny in coming weeks to determine whether this is an anomaly or an inflection point.
Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 7.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 26, 2021. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday. ... The Refinance Index decreased 15 percent from the previous week and was 41 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 30 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates rose for the third week in a row, reducing the refinance incentive for many borrowers. The 30-year fixed rate hit 3.31 percent – the highest since this April – and led to refinance applications falling more than 14 percent. Over the past three weeks, rates are up 15 basis points and refinance activity has declined over 18 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Despite higher mortgage rates, purchase applications had a strong week, mostly driven by a 6 percent increase in conventional loan applications. Conventional loans tend to be larger than government loans, and this was evident in the average loan amount, which increased to $414,700 – the highest since February 2021. As home-price appreciation continues at a double-digit pace, buyers of newer, pricier homes continue to dominate purchase activity, while the share of first-time buyer activity remains depressed.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.31 percent from 3.24 percent, with points increasing to 0.43 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.5% year-over-year in September - S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 19.5% Annual Home Price Gain in September: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.5% annual gain in September, down from 19.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.8%, down from 18.6% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted a 19.1% year-over-year gain, down from 19.6% in the previous month. Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in September. Phoenix led the way with a 33.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 27.7% increase and Miami with a 25.2% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending September 2021 versus the year ending August 2021. .. Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.0% month-over-month increase in September, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.2%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively. In September, 19 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Composite 10 index is up 0.8% in September (SA). The Composite 20 index is up 1.0% (SA) in September. The National index is 46% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.2% (SA) in September. The National index is up 98% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices. The Composite 10 SA is up 17.8% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 19.1% year-over-year. The National index SA is up 19.5% year-over-year. Price increases were slightly below expectations. I'll have more later.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, November Update: Another Holy-Cow Moment - Wolf Richter -“After 14 consecutive months of acceleration, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index finally took a turn,” said CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp today. But wait… Instead of spiking at a rate of 2% or more from month to month, the national index spiked by only 1.0% in the latest month, whittling down the year-over-year spike from a record 19.8% in the prior month to, well, 19.5% in today’s report.Amid this slight overall “deceleration” of the raging mania, house prices spiked at an all-time record pace in some markets: Tampa’s 27.7% year-over-year spike and Phoenix’s 33.1% spike out-spiked even the craziest moments in those two markets at the apex of Housing Bubble 1 before it fell apart. But in some other markets, on a month-to-month basis, prices flattened for the first time in two years as the heat was being dialed down.S&P CoreLogic ascribes this situation – this sense of slowing price spikes – in part to a typical seasonal slowdown, after there not being a seasonal slowdown a year ago, and in part to “a slow albeit welcomed return to more sustainable balance between buyers and sellers.” The charts below depict the mind-boggling price spikes in the bubbliest metropolitan areas – the most splendid housing bubbles in America – based on the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, released today, for “September.” The “September” data are a three-month moving average of closed sales that were entered into public records in July, August, and September. That’s the time frame of today’s data. The Case-Shiller Index is based on the “sales pairs method,” which compares the sales price of a house to the price of the same house when it sold previously. It includes adjustments for home improvements. By tracking the price of the same house over time, it is a measure of house price inflation.
More on Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Increases – McBride - Today, in the Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 19.5% Year-over-year in September. Excerpt: Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for September were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).The MoM increase in Case-Shiller was at 1.18%; still historically high, but lower than the previous 13 months. House prices started increasing sharply in the Case-Shiller index in August 2020, so the last 14 months have all been historically very strong, but the peak MoM growth is behind us - and the year-over-price growth is starting to decelerate. ... As I discussed in How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Increase for 2022?, the FHFA HPI is used to determine the increase in the Conforming Loan Limit. The relevant quarterly index, the Expanded-Data Indexes (Estimated using Enterprise, FHA, and Real Property County Recorder Data Licensed from DataQuick for sales below the annual loan limit ceiling), was released this morning, and it was up 18.04% YoY. The actual 2022 CLL will be released later.
Clear signs of *deceleration* in house price increases, but no sign of actual declines yet - The veritable explosive increase in house prices has been one of the biggest economic stories of the past year. And because it feeds into “owner’s equivalent rent” with a lag, is likely to have a big effect on consumer inflation readings in next year as well.This morning both the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were reported for September, and both showed a slight deceleration in the increases in house prices.As a preliminary matter, both the FHFA and CaseShiller indexes have risen almost an identical 250% since January 1991, when the FHFA index began: During that time, usually the FHFA index has decelerated, and made a peak or trough a month or two before the Case Shiller index (note for example, 1994, 2006, 2009, 2010, and 2013). With that in mind, here are the YoY% change in house prices as measured by both indexes, plus that of new home prices (gold) zoomed in on the last 5 years (again, note that the FHFA index turned slightly ahead of the Case Shiller index in 2018 and 2020):
Last month I noted that price gains in the FHFA index had decelerated at least slightly, but that the Case Shiller Index hadn’t followed suit yet. This month the YoY% increase in prices as measured by the Case Shiller index did decelerate slightly (-0.3%) to 19.5%, while the deceleration in the FHFA Index continued, down -0.8% to 17.7%, and from the peak two months ago of 19.3% YoY.In the last two months I have also noted that median existing house prices as reported by Realtor.com decelerated from a 23% YoY gain to 13%, likely indicating the peak in actual prices had either just happened or was imminent. Neither the FHFA nor Case Shiller indexes are confirming that, but there is now persuasive evidence of a *slowdown* in price increases which, if it continues at its current rate of deceleration, would result in an actual peak about 6 months from now.P.S. It is important to add that while house prices in real terms have set multiple new records this year, average monthly mortgage payments deflated by average wages are nowhere near their 2006 peak, courtesy of 3% vs. 6.5% mortgage rates.
Rents Still Increasing Sharply --Bill McBride --Earlier I wrote: The Rapid Increase in Rents, What is happening? Why? And what will happen and Measuring Rents. First, from ApartmentList.com: Apartment List National Rent Report Rents grew by 0.1 percent this month nationally, the fourth straight month that growth has slowed after peaking at 2.7 percent in July. This represents the smallest month-over-month growth rate that we’ve recorded in 2021. A slowdown in rent growth during the fall and winter is typical due to seasonality in this market, but this year the seasonal slowdown is capping a year that has been characterized by unprecedented price increases. For seven months from March through September, month-over-month rent growth exceeded the pre-pandemic record going back to 2017.This appears to be the normal seasonal slowdown in rent increases. Today, I’m going to update some of the data that shows rents are accelerating. Here is a graph of several measures of rent since 2000: OER, rent of shelter, rent of primary residence, Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), and ApartmentList.com. (All set to 100 in January 2017)Note: For a discussion on how OER, and Rent of primary residence are measured, see from the BLS: How the CPI measures price change of Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence (OER) and rent of primary residence (Rent)OER, rent of shelter, and rent of primary residence have mostly moved together. The Zillow index started in 2014, and the ApartmentList index started in 2017. Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through October 2021 (Apartment List through November).The Zillow measure is up 11.2% YoY in October, up from 10.3% YoY in September. And the ApartmentList measure is up 17.7% as of November, up from 16.9% in October. Both the Zillow measure (a repeat rent index), and ApartmentList are showing a sharp increase in rents. From Zillow:“ZORI is a repeat-rent index that is weighted to the rental housing stock to ensure representativeness across the entire market, not just those homes currently listed for-rent.”And from ApartmentList:At Apartment List, we estimate the median contract rent across new leases signed in a given market and month. To capture how rents change in a market over time, we estimate the expected price change that a rental unit should experience if it were to be leased today.Both of these measures reflect new leases, whereas most rental units don’t turnover every year (as captured by the BLS measures). Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at@Upwork explained this succinctly: But this sharp increase in new leases should spill over into the consumer price index over the next year (as discussed in earlier article).CoreLogic also tracks rents for single family homes: Single-Family Rent Prices Hit Double Digit Growth in September, CoreLogic Reports CoreLogic … today released its latest Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI), which analyzes single-family rent price changes nationally and across major metropolitan areas. September 2021 data shows a national rent increase of 10.2% year over year, up from a 2.6% year-over-year increase in September 2020. …The 10.2% YoY in September was up from 9.3% YoY in A ugust.Clearly rents are increasing sharply, and we should expect this to spill over into measures of inflation in 2022. The Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) was up 3.1% YoY in October, from 2.9% in September - and will increase further in the coming months.
What’s Behind the Pile-Up of New Houses for Sale, Highest since 2008, as Construction Costs Spike Most in 42 Years, Projects Stall by Wolf Richter -The inventory of new single-family houses that homebuilders put on the market for sale rose to 389,000 in October, the highest since September 2008, according to data from the Census Bureau: These houses for sale are in all stages of construction. When you go to a new development, the homebuilder has already completed some houses, but others are under construction, and others haven’t been started yet. If you buy a home where construction hasn’t started yet, the homebuilder will offer the most choices in terms of the appearance and finishes of the house. Sales of new houses at all stages of construction — not started, under construction, and completed — fell 23% from the pace at the same time last year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 745,000 houses. As the chart below shows, sales of new houses have long been far below their 2002-2007 heyday, as housing demand shifted to condos and apartments in urban cores, triggering a large-scale construction boom of towers and mid-rise buildings, that are not reflected here. Here we’re only looking at single-family houses: Given the rate of sales in October, the supply of new houses for sale, at 6.3 months, has now remained roughly at the same high level above 6 months since June. Homebuilders are struggling with shortages of all kinds, including shortages of windows and appliances, and completing a house has become a complex task of dodging supply-chain chaos, where builders are trying to find substitutes for the things that they cannot get. Houses remain under construction with no activity while the builders wait for supplies to come in. Other projects are being put on hold or don’t get started due to the supply shortages. In addition, homebuilders are facing rampant price increases in materials, and they’re facing labor shortages that cause them to increase wages, and contracts can reflect the uncertainty about those price increases and could get the buyer stuck with higher costs. . The index for construction costs of singled-family houses spiked 13.3% year-over-year in October, the worst year-over-year increase since 1979, and by 18.5% in the two years since October 2019, according to data by the Commerce Department. Construction costs have jumped year-over-year by the double-digits every month since May. This excludes the cost of land and other non-construction costs: In terms of the index in the chart below, not the year-over-year percentage change, you can see the spike in construction costs taking off in June 2020 (black dot), and has been relentless ever since.
Construction Spending Increased 0.2% in October -- From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased 0.2%: Construction spending during October 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,598.0 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised September estimate of $1,594.8 billion. The October figure is 8.6 percent above the October 2020 estimate of $1,471.7 billion. Private spending decreased and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,245.0 billion,0.2 percent below the revised September estimate of $1,247.9 billion.... In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $353.0 billion, 1.8 percent above the revised September estimate of $346.8 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.Residential spending is 14% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation).Non-residential spending is 13% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been soft recently.Public construction spending is 8% above the peak in March 2009.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 16.7%. Non-residential spending is up 3.1% year-over-year. Public spending is up 0.4% year-over-year.Construction was considered an essential service during the early months of the pandemic in most areas, and did not decline sharply like many other sectors. However, some sectors of non-residential have been under pressure. For example, lodging is down 32.4% YoY. This was below consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase in spending; however, construction spending for the previous two months was revised up.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up 5% Compared to Same Week in 2019; Record Thanksgiving Week Occupancy
- Note: Since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic, CoStar is comparing to 2019. From CoStar: STR: Thanksgiving Boosts US Weekly Hotel Performance:U.S. hotel performance came in higher than any other Thanksgiving week on record, according to STR‘s latest data through November 27.November 21-27, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 53.0% (+4.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $128.41 (+14.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $68.00 (+19.6%)
*Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average..The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.This was the first week with an increase over the same week in 2019.The occupancy rate will now decline seasonally into the new year.
Las Vegas Visitor Authority for October: Visitor Traffic Down 7.6% Compared to 2019 --From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: October 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics: With significant events and an improving convention segment, October saw the strongest visitation of the pandemic era both on weekends and midweek as the destination welcomed nearly 3.4M visitors (up 15.5% MoM and down ‐7.6% from Oct 2019).Hotel occupancy reached 81.6% for the month (up 8.6 pts MoM, down ‐8.4 pts vs. Oct 2019), as Weekend occupancy reached 90.4% (up 1.3 pts MoM) while Midweek occupancy improved from the prior month to 77.5% (up 11.4 pts MoM).October room rates approached $174, significantly ahead of last month and Oct 2019 (up 11.5% MoM and up 28.3% vs. Oct 2019) while RevPAR neared $142, up 24.6% MoM and 16.4% ahead of Oct 2019..This graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red).Visitor traffic was down 7.6% compared to the same month in 2019.There was no convention traffic from March 2020 until June 2021 (data still N/A).I'll add a graph of convention traffic once convention data is available.
California ship pileup still piling up — but out of sight, over horizon- By one measure, the number of container ships stuck waiting offshore of Los Angeles and Long Beach has plummeted. The logjam hit a peak of 86 container ships offshore on Nov. 16, according to data from the Marine Exchange of Southern California. A week later, it was a mere 61, the lowest since early October. Far from it. The waiting container ships are still out there — more of them than ever. It’s just that more are over the horizon, where you can’t see them, thanks to the successful implementation of a new queuing system that began last week. “The overall flow of container ships and big-picture backup has not changed,” acknowledged Marine Exchange of Southern California Executive Director Kip Louttit. If you include all of the container ships physically at anchor on Tuesday off LA/LB, plus the ships in holding patterns within 40 miles of the ports, which were counted in the previous queuing system, plus all the ships waiting further afield that are now technically in the queue under the new system, then 93 container vessels were waiting for berths at Los Angeles/Long Beach on Tuesday, a new all-time high. . Counted under old system: ships reported by the Marine Exchange comprising number at anchor plus loitering within 40 miles. Counted under new system: ships with Calculated Time of Arrival prior to that day’s Master Queuing List time. New queuing plan rapidly adopted The new queuing system was designed to sharply reduce the number of container vessels waiting just offshore of Los Angeles/Long Beach, with the stated goal of cutting harmful emissions and enhancing safety during the winter months by spacing out the ships. A more cynical view has emerged: that an unstated goal is to erase a politically nettlesome photo op — attention-grabbing imagery of idle container ships stretching off into the distance.
As US Retailers Struggle Against Smash-And-Grab Flash Mobs, Liberals Blame "White Supremacy" --Americans are facing a new type of crime wave that got its start in the mad liberal laboratory, where the utopian notion that going soft on criminals is going terribly awry. While threatening the traditional brick and mortar shopping experience with extinction, and making communities a living hell, the left needs to stop trying to reinvent the wheel.Apparently unwilling to wait for Black Friday discounts, roaming gangs of young men are descending on retail outlets and pharmacies in flash mobs, clearing out the store shelves in a matter of seconds as clerks look on helplessly.In one pre-Thanksgiving raid, about 90 individuals stormed a Nordstrom outlet in Walnut Creek, situated in the San Francisco Bay Area. Members of the masked mob pepper-sprayed one employee, and assaulted another with a knife before making off with an estimated $100,000 in merchandise. Many of the looters made their getaway in some 25 vehicles parked out front.Disturbingly, as this sort of mayhem unfolds in major cities across the country, liberals seem more preoccupied with determining how to define the criminal acts.Lorenzo Boyd, PhD, Professor of Criminal Justice & Community Policing at the University of New Haven, and a retired veteran police officer, is just one academic who seems more obsessed with semantics than digging to the root of the problem.“Looting is a term that we typically use when people of color or urban dwellers are doing something,”Boyd remarked in an interview with ABC7 news channel.“We tend not to use that term for other people when they do the exact same thing.”And by “other people” it is abundantly clear who Boyd is referencing.Martin Reynolds, Co-executive director of the Robert C. Maynard Institute of Journalism Education, invited listeners to compare the current wave of flash mob thefts to the fallout from Hurricane Katrina, when many marginalized New Orleans residents, the majority of them Black, were labeled looters for stealing from local businesses.“This seems like it’s an organized smash and grab robbery,” Reynold said, speaking about the current phenomenon of flash mobs.“This doesn’t seem like looting. We’re thinking of scenarios where first responders are completely overwhelmed. And folks, often may be on their own,” he said.While both academics do make some valid points, there is a risk of liberals getting trapped in a game of semantics that eventually leads to social disaster. More on that in a moment. At the same time, the radical progressives wish to ignore the fact that the primary reason for these crimes happening at all is because they went soft on crime.Why Has the Press Ignored Retailers’ Crappy Black Fridays, as Experts Warn of Coming Bankruptcies? - Yves Smith - You can try to blame the business press non- and mis-reporting of sickly Black Friday and underwhelming Cyber Monday sales on Omicron eating the news, but that won’t get your very far. The sort of gumshoe reporters that once covered the retail sector would not be pressed into pandemic coverage.In fact, the slow retrenchment of American consumers has gone largely unmentioned. We are supposed to believe that they really did shop early as they were encouraged to do to get in front of supply chain failures. But as we’ll see below, spending on goods had fallen in the third quarter and retail inventories grew this quarter, which is the opposite of what you would observe if consumers were making purchases as retailers were having trouble keeping items in stock.Indeed, the press has underplayed the recessionary warnings. From a post in late October: Two series – from The Conference Board on business conditions, employment and income six months hence, and from the University of Michigan on the financial situation in a year and business conditions a year and five years hence – tell the same story: sentiment peaked in spring or early summer. And it has been falling precipitously since (Blanchflower and Bryson 2021a). This is true for the US as a whole and for the eight largest states for which The Conference Board collect data.Why does this matter? Well, the rate of decline in these sentiment indices is of the same magnitude we saw back in 2007, before the Great Recession (Blanchflower and Bryson 2021b,c). We call it the 10-point rule. When the indices drop by at least 10 points, this is an early warning signal for a recession.We test this proposition for the US over the period 1978 to September 2021 and show that consumer expectations about future economic trends are highly predictive of economic downturns 6-18 months ahead, thus providing an early-warning system for the economy. It is not hard to infer that consumer confidence was propped up by government intervention and spending, and their withdrawal while Covid is still very much out and about has produced a great deal more caution.
November Vehicles Sales decreased to 12.9 million SAAR --Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for November. Wards Auto estimates sales of 12.86 million SAAR in November 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 1.0% from the October sales rate, and down 19.0% from November 2020. This was below the consensus estimate of 13.2 million SAAR.This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for November (red). The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). However, sales decreased earlier this year due to supply issues. It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September, but sales in November were disappointing.
Crushed Auto Sales, No Problem: Nov. was Most Profitable Month Ever for New Vehicle Sales as Americans Paid Whatever --Wolf Richter - Sales of new “cars” (mostly sedans but also muscle cars, such as the Mustang) dropped to 195,400 vehicles in November, down 45% from November two years ago, and the second lowest sales figure since Adam and Eve, or at least since the 1970s, the extent of the monthly data I have access to. Back in the 1970s and 1980s, “car” sales, which included the now extinct station wagons, regularly exceeded 1 million per month. The lowest car sales in that entire time span occurred in April 2020, when many auto dealers were shut down. Sales of “trucks” – the booming category of pickup trucks, SUVs, vans, and compact SUVs that are built on what was essentially a car chassis – fell to 805,900 vehicles in November, the second lowest since lockdown-April 2020, and down 23% from November 2019, as buyers strolled through nearly empty dealer lots and were shown prices of thousands of dollars over MSRP, on units that hadn’t even arrived at the dealer yet. Sales of “cars” have been plunging for years because Americans have lost interest in them and stopped buying them, and the Big Three US automakers, after failing for years to revive interest in them, have abandoned them by killing their sedan models, leaving that segment to Tesla and foreign brands. I have long called this shift away from cars the era of “Carmageddon.” But the semiconductor shortage has accelerated the trend as automakers are prioritizing their highest-margin and most expensive models, namely loaded trucks and SUVs, at the expense of cars. Due to the large month-to-month variability and seasonality of auto sales, the industry has long used the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of sales, which adjusts for the number of selling days per month and for seasonal factors and extrapolates those adjusted monthly sales out to a 12-month sales figure.The SAAR for November for all cars and light trucks combined fell to 12.86 million vehicles, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today, down 19% from November 2020, and down 25% from November 2019.The now widespread practice of selling new vehicles at MSRP or even at thousands of dollars over MSRP, and in some cases at tens of thousands of dollars over MSRP, even at vastly diminished unit-volume, has inflated dollar-revenues and per-vehicle gross-profits. And along with the prioritization of high-end units in the sales mix, the Average Transaction Price (ATP) has spiked.In November, the ATP hit $44,043, according to J.D. Power estimates, up 18% from November 2020:
When Will Consumers Balk at Surging Prices? – Wolf Richter One of the bizarre factors that has driven the current surge in inflation – theworst in 30 years per CPI-U, the worst in 40 years per CPI-W – has been the sudden and radical change in the inflationary mindset among consumers and businesses.We saw that in late 2020 and all year in 2021, when prices of new and used vehicles spiked in practically ridiculous ways. People are paying more for a one-year-old used vehicle than what a new vehicle would cost, if they could get it, and they’re paying many thousands of dollars over sticker for new vehicles.Out the window is the ancient American custom of hunting for a deal. And yet, new and used vehicles are the ultimate discretionary purchase for the vast majority of buyers that can easily drive what they already have for a few more years. But they’re jostling for position to pay these ridiculous astounding prices. And there has been enough demand to keep inventories bare and prices soaring.During the Great Recession, potential new-vehicle buyers went on a buyer’s strike, and sales collapsed, and two of the Big Three US automakers filed for bankruptcy, along with many component makers, and sales didn’t recover for years. Consumers have this power because vehicle purchases are discretionary. But this time, consumers aren’t exercising their power to put a stop to those price spikes. Instead, they’re paying whatever. We’ve also seen this with the price of gasoline, which at the end of November had spiked by 59% year-over-year and by 31% compared to November 2019, to an average of $3.38 per gallon, according to the EIA.And yet, consumption of gasoline has completely recovered from the collapse and is back where it had been in November 2019, and the surge in price had zero impact on demand. Will gasoline have to go to $5 or $6 on average across the US before demand takes a hit? $7? At what point are consumers going to push back? Consumption in November ran at 9.16 billion barrels per day, same as two years ago:The same has been the case in other categories, unrelated to consumer goods. For example, rents have been spiking in many markets. And house prices have spiked at a ridiculous pace to ridiculous levels.Despite widespread and large wage increases, amid this peculiar phenomenon of the labor “shortages,” inflation is now outrunning those wage increases.And yet, consumers are outrunning inflation with their spending. Total consumer spending, including for services, and adjusted for inflation – so “real” consumer spending – in October rose by 0.7% from September, and by 6.6% from a year ago:
Covid-19 Made Americans Into Super Savers. Now They’re Hoarding Cash. – WSJ - Americans are hoarding cash because of fatigue and uncertainty, with little chance the trend will reverse soon.Over the past two years, households have socked away close to $1.6 trillion in “excess savings,” or resources they otherwise wouldn’t have been able to save before the Covid-19 crisis, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The funds are well beyond the three to six months of emergency savings generally recommended by financial advisers.While the savings rate has dropped back to 2019 levels after four consecutive quarters of record high savings, financial advisers, money managers and economists say Americans are too nervous about potential worst-case scenarios to dip into their funds. And now, with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus threatening to disrupt stability once again, many of them expect the cash hoarding to continue.“I have been one of the more optimistic ones, but with this new variant now on the horizon, I think we’re in for more of the same of what we’ve seen over the last six months,” says Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution.Hoarding savings can hurt individuals’ long-term finances should inflation rise further, and the piling of savings can create bigger problems for an economy in which consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of its gross domestic product.At the start of the coronavirus pandemic, people began hoarding money for emergencies. The government also issued three rounds of stimulus payments to Americans who qualified. With no end in sight, many Americans kept saving both as a safety measure and as a result of being stuck at home, leading to the highest personal savings rate since World War II.Researchers at the New York Fed say the move happened more mechanically than intentionally. People saved more because they weren’t spending as much, not necessarily because they were actively stockpiling money in their reserves. The surge in savings runs counter to many other economic factors given that people historically save more in times of recession out of fear of their households being financially affected. This time there is a hot labor market and rising income, but people are still hoarding cash.“We see a lot of folks sitting on an incredibly high savings amount, and it’s really just a fear factor,” says Nina O’Neal, partner and investment adviser with AIM Advisors. “In 2021, they kind of felt like, ‘Things were getting better. We’re going to get better from the pandemic,’ and they did, but also, they didn’t. It is sort of like the same sideways winding road from last year, and so I think people started to spend a little bit more but they continue to hold that cash.”One of the few places Americans have started to spend some money is on smaller items with credit cards. Nearly 27% of U.S. consumers said in October that they had applied for a credit card in the past 12 months, according to the New York Fed.Consumer spending on big-ticket and smaller purchases increased 2.2% in October. Many are spending on credit cards, even as they maintain liquidity with cash reserves, and using that accessible money as an emergency cushion, says Shane Holdaway, chief executive officer of Mission Lane, a financial technology company.
ISM® Manufacturing index increased to 61.1% in November --The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in November. The PMI® was at 61.1% in November, down from 60.8% in October. The employment index was at 53.3%, up from 52.0% last month, and the new orders index was at 61.5%, up from 59.8%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 61.1% November 2021 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The November Manufacturing PMI® registered 61.1 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the October reading of 60.8 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 18th month in a row after a contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 61.5 percent, up 1.7 percentage points compared to the October reading of 59.8 percent. The Production Index registered 61.5 percent, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to the October reading of 59.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 82.4 percent, down 3.3 percentage points compared to the October figure of 85.7 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 61.9 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than the October reading of 63.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 53.3 percent, 1.3 percentage points higher compared to the October reading of 52 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 72.2 percent, down 3.4 percentage points from the October figure of 75.6 percent. The Inventories Index registered 56.8 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than the October reading of 57 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 54 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point compared to the October reading of 54.6 percent. The Imports Index registered 52.6 percent, a 3.5-percentage point increase from the October reading of 49.1 percent.” This was at expectations, and this suggests manufacturing expanded at a slightly faster pace in November than in October.
US Manufacturing Slumps To Weakest Since 2020 As Cost Inflation Hits Record High -October and November have seen US macro-economic data surprise to the upside (admittedly from a depressingly low level overshoot), and flash PMI signaled an uptick in Manufacturing earlier in the month, but that was the end of the good news.Markit US Manufacturing was a big disappointment, tumbling from 59.1 earlier in the month to 58.3 final for November, which is below October's final 58.4 - the weakest print since Dec 2020.ISM US Manufacturing also disappointed, though only modestly, printing 61.1 vs 61.2 exp, but up from October's 60.8.So Markit worst since 2020, and ISM best since March...Markit warns that longer lead times, supplier shortages and higher energy prices meanwhile pushed the rate of cost inflation to a fresh series high.ISM, on the other hand saw prices drop?! Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:“Broad swathes of US manufacturing remain hamstrung by supply chain bottlenecks and difficulties filling staff vacancies. Although November brought some signs of supply chain problems easing slightly to the lowest recorded for six months, widespread shortages of inputs meant production growth was again severely constrained to the extent that the survey is so far consistent with manufacturing acting as a drag on the economy during the fourth quarter.“While demand remains firm, November brought signs of new orders growth cooling to the lowest so far this year, linked to shortages limiting scope to boost sales and signs of push-back from customers as prices continued to rise sharply during the month.“While average selling price inflation eased as firms sought to win customers, the rate of input cost inflation hit a new high, hinting at a squeeze on margins.” So, is it any wonder that the yield curve is collapsing in fear of an imminent policy error by The Fed - tightening into a slowdown.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 222,000 -
The DOL reported: In the week ending November 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 5,000 from 199,000 to 194,000. The 4-week moving average was 238,750, a decrease of 12,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,250 from 252,250 to 251,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 238,750. The previous week was revised down. Regular state continued claims decreased to 1,956,000 (SA) from 2,063,000 (SA) the previous week. Weekly claims were well below the consensus forecast.
ADP: Private Employment increased 534,000 in November - From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 534,000 jobs from October to Novemberaccording to the November ADP® National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual data of those who are on a company’s payroll, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis“The labor market recovery continued to power through its challenges last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “November’s job gains bring the three month average to 543,000 monthly jobs added, a modest uptick from the job pace earlier this year. Job gains have eclipsed 15 million since the recovery began, though 5 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. Service providers, which are more vulnerable to the pandemic, have dominated job gains this year. It’s too early to tell if the Omicron variant could potentially slow the jobs recovery in coming months.”This was close to the consensus forecast of 525,000 for this report. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 563 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in November. The ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.
November Employment Report: 210 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate - From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up by 67,000, from +312,000 to +379,000, and the change for October was revised up by 15,000, from +531,000 to +546,000. With these revisions, employment in September and October combined is 82,000 higher than previously reported. The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In November, the year-over-year change was 5.8 million jobs. This was up significantly year-over-year.Total payrolls increased by 210 thousand in November. Private payrolls increased by 235 thousand, and public payrolls declined 25 thousand.Payrolls for September and October were revised up 82 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, the current employment recession, 20 months after the onset, is now significantly better than the worst of the "Great Recession".The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate was increased to 61.8% in November, from 61.6% in October. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 59.2% from 58.8% (black line).I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later. The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate decreased in November to 4.2% from 4.6% in October.This was well below consensus expectations; however, August and September were revised up by 82,000 combined.
November jobs report: the only thing keeping the jobs market completely recovering to pre-pandemic levels, is the pandemic itself - One month ago, we got very large upward revisions to previous data. The 6 month average of monthly gains as of now is 612,000: less than one month ago, but still very good not bad. But we still have 3.9 million jobs to go to equal the number of employees in February 2020 just before the pandemic hit. The largest share of this is in jobs that employees and/or their potential customers consider still to be unsafe.Here’s my synopsis of the report:
- 210,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 235,000, but government shed -25,000 jobs. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a HUGE gain of 1,136,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
- The total number of employed is still -3,912,000, or -2.6% below its pre-pandemic peak. At this rate jobs have grown in the past 6 months (which have averaged 612,000 per month), it will take another 6 or 7 months for employment to completely recover.
- U3 unemployment rate declined -0.4% to 4.2%, compared with the January 2020 low of 3.5%.
- U6 underemployment rate declined -0.5% to 7.8%, compared with the January 2020 low of 6.9%.
- Those not in the labor force at all, but who want a job now, declined 119,000 to 5.859 million, compared with 5.010 million in February 2020.
- Those on temporary layoff decreased -255,000 to 801,000.
- Permanent job losers declined -205,000 to 1,921,000.
- September was revised upward by 67,000, while October was revised upward by 15,000, for a net gain of 82,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, rose 0.1 hour to 40.4 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs increased 31,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, manufacturing has still lost -253,000 jobs, or -2.0% of the total.
- Construction jobs increased 31,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, -115,000 construction jobs have been lost, or -1.5% of the total.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 4,100. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 49,100 jobs have been *gained* in this sector, or +5.8%.
- temporary jobs rose by 6,200. Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have still been 153,000 jobs lost, or -5.2% of all temporary jobs.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less decreased by -113,000 to 1,972,000, which is now *lower* than just before the pandemic hit.
- Professional and business employment increased by 90,000, which is still -69,000, or about -0.3%, below its pre-pandemic peak.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.12 to $26.40, which is a 5.9% YoY gain. This continues to be excellent news, considering that a huge number of low-wage workers have finally been recalled to work.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose by 0.2%, which is a loss of -2.3% since just before the pandemic.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.6%, which is a gain of 7.3% (before inflation) since just before the pandemic.
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, gained 23,000 jobs, but are still -1,334,000, or -7.9% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments gained 11,000 jobs, and is still -756,600, or -6.1% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Full time jobs increased 954,000 in the household report.
- Part time jobs increased 42,000 in the household report.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons declined by -137,000 to 4,286,000, which is a *decrease* of -112,000 since before the pandemic began.
SUMMARY: Once again this month was a tale of two very different reports: a lackluster establishment report and a blockbuster household report! I will go out on a limb and state with great confidence that over the next two months the relatively poor establishment number is going to be revised considerably higher, just as the original lackluster reports of August and September were - and like almost every other report this year has been to some extent.The biggest part of the disappointment in the establishment report was that food and drink, and more broadly leisure and hospitality, added almost no jobs, in contrast with the huge gains earlier this year. Temporary job gains were also lackluster. By contrast, gains in professional and business jobs and construction jobs were par for the last 12 months, while gains in manufacturing were a little light.But the declines in the unemployment and underemployment rates were stellar, with the former only 0.7% above its pre-pandemic low and the latter only 1.0% above its pre-pandemic low as well. The even broader metric of those who are not in the labor force but want a job now is only about 1 million above its pre-pandemic low as well.Wages continue to increase sharply. Aggregate payrolls are excellent compared with pre-pandemic levels. As I wrote yesterday in connection with jobless claims, at this point the *only* thing keeping employment from exceeding its pre-pandemic highs is the pandemic itself. With nearly 30% of American adults absolutely refusing to get vaccinated, congested indoor activities - especially unmasked ones like dining - continue to be viewed as unsafe by most other Americans.
The Great Escape – David Dayen - IN SEPTEMBER, 4.43 million workers followed Caroline Potts’s lead and quit their job, a new record high. That represents 3 percent of the American workforce leaving their jobs, after 2.9 percent quit in August. In lower-wage sectors like leisure and hospitality and food services and accommodation, the numbers were as high as 6.6 percent, around 1 in every 15 workers. Things could accelerate from there. According to a July survey from the Society for Human Resource Management, 41 percent of U.S. workers are either actively searching for a new job, or planning to do so in the next few months. Two-thirds of those searching have considered a career change, rather than moving within their industry. Bankrate’s job seeker survey in August found even more turbulence; 55 percent of the workforce said they would likely look for a new job in the next year.This trend has been characterized as the Great Resignation, and just about every economist and pundit has taken their crack at teasing out why it’s happening. Explanations have included health and safety fears, child care needs, a tight labor market, boosted savings from stimulus funds or reduced ability to spend money on bars and movies, enhanced unemployment benefits, increases in business formation, desire to work from home, early retirements, restrictions on immigration, demographic shrinking of the prime-age workforce, and my personal favorite, expectations of a labor shortage creating a labor shortage.Some of these ideas have merit, though none can quite explain everything. In these moments, it’s best to actually ask the workers themselves. I did that, talking to dozens of people who have recently quit their job, or experts who closely track workers who have. And some patterns emerged.Work at the low end of the wage scale has become ghastly over the past several decades. With no meaningful improvements in federal labor policy since the 1930s, employers have accrued tremendous power. Workers were afraid to voice any disapproval, taking whatever scraps they could get. “The U.S. needs a reset, needs a big push, to get to a place where work is more secure and livable for a lot of the population,” said MIT economist David Autor, who has tracked the misery of American deindustrialization and the shock of China’s rise as a manufacturing powerhouse.The pandemic functioned as that reset, creating a mental escape hatch from the immiseration and even danger of ordinary work. If you call someone an “essential worker” for long enough, they start to believe it. They start to wonder whether they deserve more, given their essential nature. Gaining courage from social media, the most vulnerable people in America have started the closest thing we’ve seen in a century to a general strike.For now, it’s working to deliver higher wages and better conditions. But fr om my talks with workers, they’re really seeking something more ineffable than a couple more bucks an hour. Work is the largest time block of the day, in a moment where we’ve all learned how precious time can be. People simply want to spend that time getting the dignity and respect denied to them for so long.
SEIU pushes through contract to end month-long strike by hospital workers in Huntington, West Virginia - In voting Wednesday, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) District 1199 managed to secure the ratification of a concessions contract to shut down a month-long strike by over 800 workers at Cabell-Huntington Hospital (CHH) in Huntington, West Virginia. The union presented its members with the new proposal, which will impose high health insurance premiums and an effective pay cut after inflation, after negotiations finished with the hospital administration November 30, mere hours before the voting began at 7:30 a.m. December 1. The terms of the newly proposed contract are little different than the initial CHH offer that prompted the walkout November 3. Workers will begin paying onerous health insurance premiums into the hospital-provided care plan, and they will be granted a paltry two percent annual wage increase, far less than the current rate of inflation of 6.2 percent. One token change – a $1,000 or $500 “wellness discount” contingent on the hospital’s own assessment of an employee and his or her family’s health – was been presented by the union as a boon to workers. The reality is that the “discounts,” even if awarded to healthy employees, would barely offset the cost of the new insurance premiums for a single month. Yearly, the cost of healthcare is set to rise by 10 percent for full-time workers and by 30 percent for part-timers. Thousands of dollars in insurance costs will make employment at the hospital untenable – a situation CHH intends, in order to drive out unionized and older workers, and permanently lower wages and revoke job protections. Workers have maintained pickets in freezing and rainy weather for 29 days, facing hostility from scab workers, from the administration and from the court system. For the past week, picketers have been under a temporary restraining order, accused of compromising the “healing environment” of the hospital with the honking of support from community members. Before the vote, workers expressed frustration at the proposal on social media. “I hope everyone can see through that $$ and realize we are still getting screwed,” wrote one striking worker on Twitter. “I have lost more than $1,000 in wages being on strike. They can do better.”
Cereal Killers: How 80-Hour Weeks and a Caste System Pushed Kellogg's Workers to Strike - The shelves at the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers’ International Union Local 50 are lined with boxes of Kellogg’s products that the union members and their mothers, brothers, and grandfathers have packed over the past century. That’s when company founder W.K. Kellogg was asked about profits and said, “I’ll invest my money in people.” That was a long time ago. Now, the investment only goes to certain people, like Kellogg CEO Steve Cahillane. He brings in nearly $12 million a year in compensation, nearly 280 times the company average. The workers? They’ve time-traveled to William Blake’s dark-satanic-mills era of factory work, where a purposely understaffed labor force endures, according to union workers, 72- to 84-hour work weeks — not a typo — that includes mandated overtime and a point system that dings you if you dare beg off to go watch your son’s Little League game. (Kellogg’s claims its employees only work 52 to 56 hours a week and 90 percent of overtime is voluntary, a claim BCTGM workers hotly dispute.)“The worst is when you work a 7-to-7 and they tell you to come back at 3 a.m. on a short turnaround,” says Omaha BCTGM president Daniel Osborn, a mechanic at the plant. “You work 20, 30 days in a row and you don’t know where work and your life ends and begins.”In 2021, as a potential strike loomed, Kellogg’s stopped hiring workers when others retired or quit. The reasoning, the workers say, was twofold: It meant that the company would spend less on benefits and that there would be fewer workers to man picket lines in the case of a strike.“There’s been times during Covid when we were 100 workers under what we should have,” says Osborn, a man with close cropped blond hair and a quiet disposition that runs counter to the image of the burly union leader. He is 47 and has worked for Kellogg’s for 18 years, often 12 hours a day, seven days a week.In 2015, he gave more than just his time. Osborn was looking forward to a Colorado vacation when he was called into the heat and white noise of the factory floor to fix a high-speed engine lathe. With his right hand inside, the machine bucked and broke his index finger and his wrist in half. It took five surgeries to get him back to a semblance of whole.That was the same year Kellogg forced through a wage cut that divided 1,400 workers into a caste system that benefited stockholders but devastated employees. Claiming that cereal sales were down, the company threatened to close down two factories if the union didn’t accept a two-tier pay system. Veteran workers would keep “legacy status” and their salaries and benefits, but new hires would, according to the union, pay $300 more a month for their health benefits and would be paid an hourly rate as much as a third less than their more-senior union brothers and sisters.
North Carolina budget lacks promised boost for low-income ratepayers - As they were moving North Carolina’s new climate law through the General Assembly, some Democrats vowed a huge burst of funds into the state budget to help blunt the measure’s failure to assist low-income ratepayers. Along with the office of the state’s top Democrat, Gov. Roy Cooper, they suggested hundreds of millions of extra dollars could be included in the spending plan to cover home repairs and energy improvements for the 1.4 million households in the state who struggle to pay their electric bills. But the budget written by Republican legislative leaders, backed by large numbers of Democrats, and signed into law this month contained no such windfall. Instead, the federal pass-through monies for weatherization were unchanged from versions of the budget passed by both the House and Senate this summer.
LeBron James Out Indefinitely Under NBA’s Covid Protocols – WSJ - LeBron James missed the Los Angeles Lakers’ game on Tuesday and will remain out indefinitely after entering the NBA’s health and safety protocols, indicating the vaccinated NBA star registered a positive or inconclusive test for Covid-19, which could make James the most prominent athlete with a breakthrough infection. His teammate Anthony Davis said that James was asymptomatic and that “Covid’s a scary thing” in comments that suggested he’d tested positive, which TMZ reported earlier on Tuesday. NBA teams have left public disclosure of Covid test results to players, and the Lakers have not elaborated on the details of James’s situation. “Hopefully this is something that’s short-term,” Lakers coach Frank Vogel said. “We’ll see.” The team arranged for James’s transportation to Los Angeles from Sacramento, said Vogel, who declined to specify whether his best player traveled by plane or car. “Health and safety protocols,” Vogel said. “That’s all I can say.” The NBA’s vaccinated players are sidelined by the league’s protocols only if they have registered positive or inconclusive tests, not if they have been exposed to the coronavirus or if they were determined to be close contacts. If a vaccinated player tests positive, the league’s pandemic rules mandate that he’s out at least 10 days or until he returns two negative tests at least 24 hours apart.
Governors urge caution in the United States on the Omicron variant. - Governors across the United States tried to reassure Americans on Sunday that their administrations were closely monitoring the impact of a new coronavirus variant that has alarmed scientists.Gov. Ned Lamont of Connecticut issued a statement on Sundayreminding his constituents to remain vigilant even though the new variant, known as Omicron, had yet to be detected in the United States.“Given the number of countries where Omicron has already been detected, it may already be present in the U.S.,” he said in the statement.Other state leaders took the same tone, urging caution as well as highlighting the measures they had already put in place earlier in the pandemic. Mr. Lamont pointed to the network of labs sequencing genomes in his state and reminded residents to wear masks in indoor public spaces.Next door in New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency on Friday. Under her executive order, all state agencies are authorized “to take appropriate action to assist local governments and individuals” in containing and responding to the coronavirus. Although the measures are a far cry from early pandemic rules, they were the nation’s first attempt to accelerate preparation for the arrival of the Omicron variant.“We continue to see warning signs of spikes this upcoming winter, and while the new Omicron variant has yet to be detected in New York State, it’s coming,” Ms. Hochul said in a release. Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said on Twitter on Sunday that the state was monitoring the new variant. He did not announce any new measures but said that the coronavirus vaccine and booster shot were essential.The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health echoed that message and said in a statement, “More studies are needed to determine whether the Omicron variant is more contagious, more deadly or resistant to vaccine and treatments than other Covid-19 strains.” The department added that people in Los Angeles should adhere to existing mask requirements.“While we are still learning much about Omicron, we know enough about Covid to take steps now that can reduce transmission as we prepare to better understand the additional strategies that may needed to mitigate this new variant of concerns,” the statement said. Health leaders in the United States have said that it is all but inevitable that the variant will reach the country and called this a time for caution but not panic. Some leaders sought to reassure residents. Gov. Dan McKee of Rhode Island said that its health department was not aware of any cases in the state linked to the variant, although he said that the state would continue to be on the lookout. “The best way to keep RI safe: Get vaccinated. Get your booster,” he said on Twitter. Two governors of more conservative states addressed concerns about the variant, too, but maintained their position that vaccine mandates were off the table for now.Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas said on “State of the Union” that while a new variant “is a great concern,” encouraging vaccinations would work better than forcing them.Gov. Tate Reeves of Mississippi made similar statements on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We’re certainly monitoring this new variant,” he said. “We don’t have all the data that we need to make decisions at this time.”
Massachusetts governor mulling vaccine passports for residents - Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) is floating the idea of implementing vaccine passport requirements for residents soon.During an appearance on GBH News Boston Public Radio, Baker said he and officials from other states have been working to create a QR code that would be scanned to show a person's vaccination status. "It's a universal standard and we've been working with a bunch of other states, there's probably 15 or 20 of them, to try to create a single QR code that can be used for all sorts of things where people may choose to require a vaccine," Baker said. Baker added that COVID-19 booster shots will be available across the state, noting it may take 10 days to two weeks to schedule an appointment to receive one, according to GBH News. "Now, they may not be in the place somebody wants to go to get one. And it may be a week or 10 days out or two weeks out before they can get one. But given the fact that we have far more demand now that we had a couple of weeks ago, we're going to see if we can increase our capacity to do more," Baker told the hosts. This comes as Massachusetts has administered around 55,000 vaccinations doses per day as well as 1 million booster shots per day, GBH News reported. Nearly 19,000 Massachusetts residents have died from COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic, The Associated Press reported.
Governor: Covid vaccine rule could be devastating for Iowa nursing homes - Governor Kim Reynolds has signed the State of Iowa onto three separate lawsuits that are challenging Biden Administration Covid vaccination requirements in the workplace. “We’re going to keep fighting for Iowans to give them the opportunity to make their own choice about their health care,” Reynolds, a Republican, said during a brief interview on Thursday. In response to one lawsuit, federal courts have temporarily blocked an OSHA rule to require businesses with more than 100 employees to ensure workers are vaccinated for Covid or tested regularly. “We’ve got a pretty good chance,” Reynolds told Radio Iowa. “Our goal right now, really, is to just — and I’ve let businesses know this — to really take the temporary stay and make it permanent until we can get it litigated through the courts, so we can really have our chance to make our case in court and to just pause what I feel is tremendous overreach and we believe it’s unconstitutional as well.” The latest lawsuit Reynolds has joined was filed by 10 states on Wednesday and challenges a requirement that most U.S. health care workers get vaccinated. Reynolds said a Covid vaccine mandate for employees in facilities that treat patients receiving Medicare or Medicaid benefits could be “devastating” to Iowa’s nursing homes as some workers are threatening to quit rather than get vaccinated.
Judge blocks Covid shot requirement for Iowa health care workers - A federal judge in Missouri has temporarily blocked a federal agency’s Covid vaccine mandate for most health care workers in Iowa and nine other states. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services issued the requirement that U.S. health care facilities ensure staff are fully vaccinated by January 4. Hospitals, clinics and nursing homes that failed to do so were at risk of losing the federal funding that pays the bills for Medicare and Medicaid patients. Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds joined the lawsuit challenging the requirement earlier this month. Reynolds says the vaccination mandate would make workforce shortages worse and was an attack on individual liberties. The judge says the vaccination rule has vast economic and political significance and should have been approved by congress.
As COVID-19 cases surge throughout Ohio, Republican-controlled state senate holds a hearing on antivaccine bill On November 26, 2021, the day after Thanksgiving, Ohio reported 9,143 new COVID-19 cases. This was the highest single-day peak since last year’s winter surge. What makes the figure a startling statistic is that almost every state across the US reported that cases dramatically plummeted on the eve of the holiday weekend, prompting the New York Times daily COVID-19 tracker to annotate directly on their graph that “many states did not report data on Thanksgiving.” In fact, after a high of close to 159,000 cases on November 22, just before Thanksgiving, by November 27, the figure for infections nationwide was down to 26,433. The seven-day moving average had dropped 10,000 to 85,432 daily COVID-19 infections. These sudden wide swings in critical statistics are just one more indication of state and federal officials’ contempt for public health and providing the population with a clear picture of where the crisis stands. The only indices that continued its ascent were hospitalizations, which reached 52,416 across the country on the same day, an 11 percent increase over a 14-day change. The accuracy of this data has everything to do with where this information is obtained. Hospitals and health care systems do not have the luxury of taking a holiday with patients pouring into their emergency departments, which brings us back to the figures reported in Ohio. According to the Ohio Hospital Association, COVID-19 admissions to the hospitals are continuing to climb after declining somewhat through the month of October. Over the last three weeks, hospitalizations have been up 57 percent, with a 45 percent rise in patients with COVID-19 infections needing intensive care treatment. The state’s health department reported the following figures: 3,735 coronavirus patients hospitalized, 975 in the ICUs, and 623 on ventilators across the state. Since the September surge in cases, health care systems in Ohio have been facing a persistent barrage of patients that have taxed doctors, nurses and staff. In Northeast Ohio, Dr. Heidi Gullett, medical director for Cuyahoga County Board of Health, said of the current surge, “There is real fatigue with wearing masks, and there is a fatigue with additional vaccinations for people who haven’t yet gotten their first dose.” Despite these disastrous trends and the continued surge of infections that include the threat posed by the new Omicron variant that has gripped international headlines, the Ohio Senate General Government Budget Committee is expected to hold hearings this week on House Bill 218, a reactionary antivaccine legislation which was approved by the House on November 18, 2021. The bill, sponsored by the Ohio Republican House of Representatives member Al Cutrona, provides broad exemptions from vaccine requirements. Under its provisions, all businesses, school districts and municipalities must allow all individuals entry regardless of their vaccine status. Additionally, it provides exemptions for vaccination based on medical contraindication, previous infection and reasons of personal conscience that include religious convictions.
NYC Prisons Face Crippling Staff Shortages As Thousands Defy Mayor's Vaccination Mandate - Outgoing NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio has been widely criticized for seeming and acting out of touch with New Yorkers. And during his final weeks in Gracie Mansion, the intensely unpopular Democratic candidate may unwittingly handicap the already struggling NYC jail Riker's Island. To wit, the AP reports that hundreds of city department of corrections' workers might soon be fired after missing a Tuesday deadline to either get vaccinated or see their waiver approved. The city's DoC reported 77% of its staff had gotten at least one vaccine dose as of 1700ET on Monday. That's the lowest rate of any city agency, meaning about 1,900 employees have yet to comply with the mandate or apply for the waiver. The deadline for compliance was delayed a month for jail workers because of existing staffing shortages. Jail workers who have applied for religious or medical exemptions can continue to work while their cases are reviewed, officials said. They plan to release data on Wednesday detailing how many workers sought for an exemption. But they already know that the number who have obstinately refused to do either is unsustainably high. Those who don't comply are supposed to be placed on unpaid leave and asked to surrender any badges or city-issued firearms (or other equipment). What is the mayor doing about this? Well, in anticipation of the looming mandate, Mayor de Blasio on Monday issued an emergency executive order designed to beef up jail staffing by authorizing a transition to 12 hour from 8 hour shifts. Faced with a revolt over vaccine mandates, the mayor is asking remaining workers to take on more hours in a poorly paid, highly dangerous job. The workers and their union representatives are unsurprisingly pushing back: The president of the union for jail guards balked at de Blasio's decision to move to 12-hour shifts, calling it "reckless and misguided." The union said it would sue to block the mandate, the same tactic an NYC police union tried in late October as the vaccine requirement for officers neared. The police union lost and the mandate went into effect as planned.
Murphy plans to spend $700M on COVID recovery. Top Republican blasts the proposal as ‘grossly incomplete.’ - announced sprawling plans to allocate nearly $700 million in state taxpayer money and federal coronavirus relief funds on various projects aiming to bolster health institutions and spur economic recovery from the pandemic.Murphy said the spending is the result of an agreement with his fellow Democrats who lead the state Legislature.“This proposal will allow us to responsibly fund capital construction and continue using federal dollars for one-time, transformative investments in our residents, communities, and infrastructure,” the governor said in a statement Friday. Still, state Sen. Steven Oroho, R-Sussex, the incoming Senate minority leader, said the part of the plan involving federal funds is “grossly incomplete and fails to address key needs for New Jersey” — such as fixing unemployment and motor vehicle issues and helping struggling businesses.The state Treasury Department sent a letter Wednesday outlining the proposals to the state Joint Budget Oversight Committee, a bipartisan panel of lawmakers that must sign off on the spending as part of a state budget agreement. The committee — made up of four Democrats and two Republicans, including Oroho — is expected to vote virtually Tuesday. Republicans also complained the plans were submitted Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving, announced Friday, and will be voted on only days later.The proposals call for allocating $435 million from the New Jersey Debt Defeasance and Prevention Fund to help pay for construction projects. That includes:
- $265 million to the state Economic Development Authority for the New Jersey Wind Port in Lower Alloways Creek.
- $75 million for the construction of the Rowan University School of Veterinary Medicine.
- $45 million to the state Department of Transportation for wind port dredging.
- $35 million to the South Jersey Port Corporation for port upgrades and improvements.
- $15 million for the expansion of Cooper Medical School at Rowan University.
This will allow the state to save $8.7 million in the new fiscal year, and avoid future debt service costs of more than $508 million in following years, according to the proposal. The proposals also call for allocating $262.6 million from the $6.2 billion in aid sent to the state from the federal American Rescue Plan passed by Congress.
New numbers suggest nearly 1 in 40 US children affected by autism -New numbers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show nearly 1 in 40 U.S. children are affected by autism.Data from 2018 published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) Surveillance Summaries on Thursday showed that 2.3 percent of 8-year-old children were affected by autism. Previous data published in March said only 1.9 percent of eight-year-old children in the U.S. had been diagnosed with autism. The CDC emphasized the increase in autism diagnosis is believed to come from improvements in identifying children with autism. “The substantial progress in early identification is good news because the earlier that children are identified with autism, the sooner they can be connected to services and support,” Karen Remley, director of CDC’s National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental Disabilities, said.“Accessing these services at younger ages can help children do better in school and have a better quality of life,” Remley added. Data from 2014 showed children with autism were 50 percent more likely to get a diagnosis within 48 months of age than those who were born in 2010. The rates of autism in the communities vary with 1.7 percent of children in Missouri diagnosed with autism compared to 3.9 percent in California. The CDC says the differences between communities could be due to a lack of resources to get an early diagnosis
Detroit schools reopen Monday as COVID-19 sweeps Michigan -Public schools are to reopen Monday in Detroit after a weeklong break over the Thanksgiving holiday, despite the upsurge in COVID-19 cases which has killed an average of 500 people a week and put 4,000 people in the hospital on Thanksgiving Day. Detroit schools closed the entire week, rather than the usual three-day break, because of rising COVID-19 case levels in the city and state, but school Superintendent Nikolai Vitti said in-person instruction would begin as usual on Monday, November 29. While state health officials issued an appeal for all residents older than two to mask up during any indoor gatherings, this is not mandatory and will not be enforced in the school setting, where hundreds of thousands of children, few vaccinated and many unmasked, will gather in closed-door settings without adequate ventilation. The state government headed by Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer has abandoned any effort to fight the right-wing campaign against mask mandates and other executive orders which she issued in the course of 2020, after the Republican-led state Supreme Court overturned those orders. The Republican-controlled state legislature opposes any effort to require vaccination or mask wearing in schools, workplaces or other public venues. Over the past six months, state health officials have rescinded previous orders linked to fighting the spread of coronavirus and issued no new ones, while Whitmer’s top health aide, Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, resigned. The crisis in Michigan is so severe that it has attracted attention in the national media, with the Washington Post publishing a major report Saturday headlined, “‘Really Heartbreaking:’ Waves of Covid Patients Create No-Vacancy Status at Some Michigan Hospitals.” The report noted that eight hospitals in the state are 100 percent full and compelled to deny admission to new patients, with major hospital chains like Spectrum telling smaller rural hospitals that they cannot transfer high-risk patients who require treatment at a larger facility. The result was increased risk of death, not only to COVID-19 patients, but to those suffering heart attacks or injuries from car accidents, or to those needing treatment in a facility with greater resources.
Teen making social video fatally shoots 5-year-old on Thanksgiving: police -Minnesota police said a 5-year-old boy was fatally shot on Thanksgiving by a 13-year-old who was brandishing a firearm while making a social media video. In a statement, the Brooklyn Park Police Department (BPPD) said officers were called to a home on Thursday evening where they found the 5-year-old suffering from a gunshot wound. Officers attempted to render first aid, but the child died at the scene. Investigators believe the 13-year-old male accidentally fired the gun while he and several other teens were making a social media video at the residence. “Preliminary information leads investigators to believe that the 13-year-old male who fired the weapon accidentally shot the 5-year-old victim,” the BPPD said in its statement. BPPD Deputy Chief Mark Bruley toldCBS affiliate WCCO that adults were home when the incident occurred, adding that it was not clear how the teen ended up with the firearm. Authorities said the 13-year-old male could face a manslaughter charge, and the owner of the firearm could face charges as well, according to WCCO.
Three students killed and eight others injured in Oxford, Michigan school shooting Three students were killed and eight others were injured early Tuesday afternoon when a 15-year-old student opened fire with a semi-automatic handgun inside Oxford High School, located in metropolitan Detroit. One of the students who was critically wounded in the shooting spree died at the hospital Wednesday morning, bringing the death toll to four. Law enforcement officials reported that the unidentified sophomore male student fired twelve rounds from a 9mm Sig Sauer SP 2022 on the south end of the high school starting at approximately 12:51 p.m. Police confirmed that he had claimed to be law enforcement to gain access to barricaded class rooms. The deceased victims of the shooter include two male students, Tate Myre, 16, and Justin Shilling, 17, and two female students, Hana St. Juliana, 14 and Madisyn Baldwin, 17. Among the wounded are one teacher and six other students, including a 14-year-old girl who had been placed on a ventilator Tuesday night after being shot in the chest and neck. The shooter was reported by police to be from Oxford Village, a small town of 3,500 people located approximately 40 miles northeast of downtown Detroit. Oxford High School has 1,600 students and serves communities in the area of Oxford Township in northwestern Oakland County. After authorities took the shooter into custody, the youth “invoked his right to not speak,” McCabe said. His parents met with law enforcement and advised them that they were retaining an attorney. He is currently in custody at an area juvenile facility and police reported that he acted alone. Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard reported during a 10 p.m. briefing Tuesday that the gun used in the shooting had been purchased by the suspect’s father on Friday, just four days prior to the shooting.
Michigan School Shooting Suspect, Parents Met With School Officials Hours Before Attack – WSJ - School officials met with Ethan Crumbley and his parents Tuesday morning about the teen, then, several hours later, the 15-year-old opened fire with a semiautomatic handgun on his classmates, police said, in what prosecutors described as a planned shooting. Mr. Crumbley, a sophomore at the school, was charged with 24 felony counts, including first-degree murder, terrorism and various counts of assault, in connection with Tuesday’s mass shooting at the school in Oxford, about 40 miles north of Detroit, according to prosecutors. Three students were killed Tuesday; a fourth died Wednesday, police officials said. Six other students and one teacher were injured in the incident that roiled the semirural, primarily white community.It was the second time administrators had met with Mr. Crumbley this week, according to Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard. Oxford High School administrators had also met on Monday with Mr. Crumbley over “concerning behavior,” Mr. Bouchard said Wednesday.Mr. Bouchard declined to elaborate on the meetings, citing a continuing investigation. Oxford High School Principal Steven Wolf didn’t respond to a request for comment.Surveillance video showed Mr. Crumbley on Tuesday entering a school bathroom with his backpack, said prosecuting attorney Marc Keast at the boy’s arraignment Wednesday afternoon. A minute or two later, Mr. Keast said, Mr. Crumbley exited the bathroom and began firing on students in the hallway at a “deliberate and methodical pace.” Mr. Crumbley continued firing on students for about five minutes, Mr. Keast said, before turning his fire into classrooms. Officers arrived and arrested Mr. Crumbley inside the high school without incident after he had fired more than 30 shots from a 9mm semiautomatic handgun over a period of about five minutes. The gun had unspent rounds in it, Mr. Bouchard said.A preliminary investigation of Mr. Crumbley’s phone, social-media accounts and other documents recovered at the scene indicated the attack was premeditated, Mr. Keast said.“This defendant planned this shooting,” Mr. Keast said. “He deliberately brought the handgun that day with him, to murder as many students as he could.”At his arraignment, Mr. Crumbley appeared in the courtroom via video hookup from the juvenile detention facility, sitting by himself at a table, bare-armed, in a black detention center vest. When District Court Judge Nancy Carniak asked him if he understood the 24 charges against him, he replied, “Yes, I do.”Scott Kozak, a lawyer appointed to Mr. Crumbley for the arraignment, said that the court entered a plea of not guilty on Mr. Crumbley’s behalf.
Michigan high school shooting: Investigators reveal concerns about behavior of suspect leading up to the tragedy - (CNN)Two teachers separately reported concerning behavior from sophomore Ethan Crumbley starting the day before the deadly Michigan high school shootinghe's accused of -- prompting two meetings with him, including one with his parents just hours before the killings, a sheriff said Thursday. Crumbley, 15, was charged as an adult Wednesday with terrorism, murder and other counts in connection with Tuesday's shooting that killed four students and injured seven other people at Oxford High School north of Detroit. The first behavioral report came Monday, when "a teacher in the classroom where he was a student saw and heard something that she felt was disturbing," Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard told Brianna Keilar on CNN's "New Day.""And they had a counseling session about it with school officials, and a phone call was left with the parents," he said.Then on Tuesday -- hours before the shooting -- "a different teacher in a different classroom saw some behavior that they felt was concerning, and they brought the child down to an office, had a meeting with school officials, called in the parents, and ultimately it was determined that he could go back into class."Authorities say Crumbley soon opened fire outside a school bathroom. He moved through a hallway at a "methodical pace," prosecutors said, shooting at students in hallways and classrooms before surrendering in what's become the deadliest shooting at a US K-12 school since 2018 and the 32nd on such a campus since August 1.Bouchard declined to detail what the teachers' concerns were, adding that his department was "never informed of either meeting prior to the shooting or that there were any concerns about behavior."When asked why Crumbley was allowed to return to class on Tuesday, Bouchard said: "That will all be part of the investigation, in terms of what they thought, and why they thought that that was the right step."At a later news conference, in response to a question from CNN, he said: "In light of where we are today, certainly we would have liked to have been part of that discussion and information."When pressed by CNN, the sheriff declined to speculate as to whether that information could have prevented the shooting.
Michigan High-School Shooting Suspect Displayed Warning Signs, Officials Say – WSJ - On Monday, the day before accused Oxford High School shooter Ethan Crumbley opened fire on his classmates at the suburban Detroit school, killing four and wounding seven, a teacher had reported that he engaged in “concerning behavior” in a classroom, according to police, prompting school officials to meet with him. That night, Mr. Crumbley, 15 years old, created a video on his phone indicating a “desire to shoot up a school” the next day, police officials said. On Tuesday, a second teacher disturbed by Mr. Crumbley’s behavior prompted school officials to summon his parents to the school for a meeting with the boy. Hours later, he engaged in the deadly shooting, according to police. Taken together, the emerging snapshot of the shooter shows a teen who, in a matter of days, said he wanted to shoot people, drew attention to himself by misbehaving in school and then went on to execute the worst mass school shooting in a year that, according to the Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security, has seen the highest number of school shootings in more than 50 years. Now, law-enforcement and school officials are examining what could have been done and can be done in the future to better assess and respond to threats. Investigations of shootings have shown that school mass shooters often have patterns of behavior that in retrospect provided hints about their intentions. School administrators “made a big mistake” in allowing Mr. Crumbley’s return to class following the meeting, said one senior law-enforcement official familiar with the case. A spokeswoman for the Oxford school district didn’t respond to a request for comment. An attorney who represented Mr. Crumbley during his arraignment Wednesday didn’t respond to a request for comment. Oakland County police said they received more than 200 emails regarding threats against schools on Thursday morning, resulting in more than a dozen school districts near Oxford canceling classes.
Ethan Crumbley’s Chilling Journal Seized, Parents Scrutinized After Oxford High School, Michigan Mass Shooting —Detailed descriptions of a wish to massacre classmates on his cellphone and in a journal. At least one social media post pointing to elation at access to a handgun bought by his dad. A mom who thanked Trump for “my right to bear arms.” And a meeting between his parents and school administrators about his conduct just hours before the attack.Authorities on Wednesday identified the teenage suspect in the mass shooting a day earlier at Michigan’s Oxford High School as 15-year-old Ethan Crumbley, painting a picture of a clear-eyed teen who planned and executed a rampage that left at least four students dead and seven others, a teacher among them, injured.Crumbley, a sophomore, was previously flagged by administrators for “behavior in the classroom that they felt was concerning,” Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard said Wednesday. He was called in to talk with school officials on Monday and Tuesday. Then, his parents were brought into the school the morning of the shooting for a face-to-face meeting about their son’s behavior, according to Bouchard. He wouldn’t say what the behavior was, and police weren’t informed about any potential issues prior to the tragic event. Nathan Swanson, a 10th grader who was in some middle-school classes with Crumbley, told The Daily Beast that he was “really quiet, he would never talk to people.” “He wore all black, I believe he was really into hunting,” Swanson said.Ceree Morris, whose has two kids who attend the high school and were in the building during the shooting, told The Daily Beast that her younger son knew the suspected gunman and “was shocked” to learn he was the suspect. Oakland County prosecutor Karen McDonald said Crumbley, who was arraigned late Wednesday afternoon via video with his parents on the line, has been charged as an adult with one count of terrorism, four counts of first-degree murder, seven counts of assault with intent to murder, and 12 counts of possession of a firearm. More charges may be added later, she said. At Crumbley’s arraignment, Oakland County Sheriff’s Lt. Tim Willis told Judge Nancy Carniak that a search of the boy’s home turned up “two separate videos recovered from Ethan’s cellphone made by him the night before the incident, wherein he talked about shooting and killing students the next day at Oxford High School.”He said a journal was also recovered from Ethan’s backpack, “detailing his desire to shoot up the school, to include murdering students.” A review of social-media accounts showed he had access to a firearm and practiced with a Sig Sauer handgun, Willis added.Carniak ordered Crumbley, who pleaded not guilty and spoke only to say he understood the charges, to be held without bail. He was to be transferred from a juvenile detention center to the county’s adult jail, where he would be sequestered and placed under suicide watch, something Bouchard described as standard operating procedure.McDonald also said in a Wednesday press conference that evidence showed Crumbley started planning the attack “well before the incident.”“This isn’t even a close call,” she said. “This was absolutely premeditated.” Crumbley’s half-brother Eli spoke to the Daily Mail, describing his younger sibling as a “happy” and “average” kid who loved the game Minecraft and wanted to be an archaeologist. The two moved together from Florida to Michigan.“It’s still hard to believe... The Ethan I knew was just a smart boy who just seemed like an average kid. There was nothing that ever stood out to me. He’d never get suspended from school, or detention,” Eli, 18, said, adding that he had no idea about Ethan’s possible motive.Investigators believe Crumbley was preparing to shoot more students; police found two 15-round clips and believe he may have had a third somewhere.Crumbley, whose social media accounts were removed by Wednesday morning, was fairly active on YouTube as a young boy. On one account in his father’s name, he posted numerous videos of himself playing games such as Call of Duty, as well as shooting hoops with friends. He is said to have flaunted the newly purchased handgun in since-deleted posts.
Here's why the suspected Michigan school shooter has been charged with terrorism - Ethan Crumbley, who is accused of killing four fellow students at a Michigan high school, will be tried as an adult and faces murder, assault and weapons charges. He will also face one count of terrorism causing death, a rare charge for a school shooting. The events unfolded Tuesday at Oxford High School when, law enforcement officials say, the 15-year-old shot at people in a school hallway, firing more than 30 shots at people and through classroom doors. Three people died Tuesday and another passed away at a hospital Wednesday. Seven others -- six students and a teacher -- were wounded, Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard said. The county's top prosecutor addressed the terrorism charge. "There is no playbook about how to prosecute a school shooting and candidly, I wish I'd never even had -- it didn't occur so I wouldn't have to consider it, but when we sat down, I wanted to make sure all of the victims were represented in the charges that we filed against this individual," Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald told CNN. "If that's not terrorism, I don't know what is." She said there is a lot of digital evidence in the case -- video and things on social media. "But you probably don't even need to see that to know how terrifying it is to be in close proximity of another student shooting and killing fellow students. I mean, it's terror," she added. "Like every other child that was in that building, and I address that about the terrorism charge, we must have an appropriate consequence that speaks for the victims that were not killed or injured but also, they were affected, how do they go back to school?" She said many students can't eat or sleep. "Their parents are sleeping next to them and we shouldn't ignore that," she told CNN. "There are obviously four children who were murdered and many others injured but over 1,000 were also victimized as well." Michigan law defines an act of terrorism as a "willful and deliberate act that is all of the following:"
- "An act that would be a violent felony under the laws of this state, whether or not committed in this state.
- "An act that the person knows or has reason to know is dangerous to human life.
- "An act that is intended to intimidate or coerce a civilian population or influence or affect the conduct of government or a unit of government through intimidation or coercion."
The criminal complaint against Crumbley refers to the third condition and says the act was committed against the Oxford High School community.
Charges weighed for Michigan shooting suspect's parents - ABC News - A prosecutor on Thursday repeated her criticism of the parents of a boy who is accused of killing four students at a Michigan school, saying their actions went “far beyond negligence” and that a charging decision would come by Friday. “The parents were the only individuals in the position to know the access to weapons,” Oakland County prosecutor Karen McDonald said. The gun “seems to have been just freely available to that individual.” Ethan Crumbley, 15, has been charged as an adult with two dozen crimes, including murder, attempted murder and terrorism, for a shooting Tuesday at Oxford High School in Oakland County, roughly 30 miles (50 kilometers) north of Detroit. Four students were killed and seven more people were injured. Three were in hospitals in stable condition. The semi-automatic gun was purchased legally by Crumbley’s father last week, according to investigators. Parents in the U.S. are rarely charged in school shootings involving their children, even as most minors get guns from a parent or relative’s house, according to experts. There’s no Michigan law that requires gun owners keep weapons locked away from children. McDonald, however, suggested there's more to build a case on. “All I can say at this point is those actions on mom and dad’s behalf go far beyond negligence,” she told WJR-AM. “We obviously are prosecuting the shooter to the fullest extent. ... There are other individuals who should be held accountable.” Later at a news conference, McDonald said she hoped to have an announcement “in the next 24 hours.” She had firmly signaled that Crumbley's parents were under scrutiny when she filed charges against their son Wednesday. Jennifer and James Crumbley did not return a message left by The Associated Press. Sheriff Mike Bouchard disclosed Wednesday that the parents met with school officials about their son's classroom behavior, just a few hours before the shooting. McDonald said information about what had troubled the school “will most likely come to light soon.” Crumbley stayed in school Tuesday and later emerged from a bathroom with a gun, firing at students in the hallway, police said. “I just can't get to a space right now to blame anybody who worked at that school. They were terrorized,” McDonald said. “Should there have been different decisions made?" she said when asked about keeping the teen in school. “Probably they will come to that conclusion. ... Again, I have not seen anything that would make me think that there’s criminal culpability. It’s a terrible, terrible tragedy.” The Oxford school district hasn't commented on the meeting with Crumbley's parents before the shooting.
Parents of Michigan teen school shooting suspect charged --A Michigan prosecutor on Friday filed involuntary manslaughter charges against the parents of the teenage suspect in the deadly shooting at Oxford High School in Oxford Township, Mich.At a press conference in Pontiac, Mich., Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald announced the charges against Jennifer and James Crumbley, whose 15-year-old son, Ethan, is alleged to have carried out Tuesday's rampage, which left four students dead and seven others, including a teacher, injured."While the shooter was the one who entered the high school and pulled the trigger, there are other individuals who contributed to the events on Nov. 30," McDonald said. "And it is my intention to hold them accountable. It is imperative that we prevent this from happening again. No other parent or community should have to live through this nightmare."Shortly after McDonald's press conference, there were conflicting reports on the parents' whereabouts. Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard told CNN that the Crumbley's were considered missing, and the FBI and U.S. Marshals Service were helping local police track down the couple. According to prosecutors, James Crumbley purchased the Sig Sauer 9mm semiautomatic handgun, the weapon allegedly used by his son, four days before the shooting. A store employee told investigators that Ethan Crumbley was with his father at the time of the purchase. The same day, Ethan posted photos of the gun to social media with the caption "Just got my new beauty today," McDonald said. The next day, Jennifer Crumbley posted to social media suggesting that she and Ethan were testing out the gun, which she referred to as "his new Christmas present," McDonald said. On Nov. 21, McDonald said, a teacher at Oxford High School observed Ethan searching online for ammunition with his cellphone during class, and reported it to school officials, who informed Jennifer Crumbley but received no response from either parent. The same day, McDonald said, Jennifer Crumbley exchanged text messages with her son about the reported incident, including one that read: "LOL I'm not mad at you, you have to learn not to get caught." On the morning of the shooting, a teacher saw a note on Ethan's desk including a drawing of a semiautomatic handgun next to the words "The thoughts won't stop, help me," and a bullet below the words "Blood everywhere." The note also included drawings of figures with gunshot wounds, as well as the phrases "My life is useless" and "The world is dead." The teacher was so alarmed she took a photo of the note with her cellphone. Jennifer and James Crumbley were immediately summoned to the school, McDonald said, and a school counselor pulled Ethan from class to meet with his parents. Ethan removed the note from his backpack, but it had already been altered, with the images of the gun and disturbing phrases "scratched out," McDonald said. School officials told Jennifer and James Crumbley that they were required to find counseling for their son within 48 hours. McDonald said both parents "failed to ask their son if he had his gun with him" and did not inspect his backpack. Prosecutors believe that the gun he allegedly used in the shooting was in his backpack at the meeting. Jennifer and James Crumbley "resisted the idea of their son leaving the school at that time." They left the school, and he returned to the classroom. Hours later, amid news of an active shooter at the school, Jennifer Crumbley texted her son: "Ethan, don't do it."
Medford High School Violence: Students Walk Out Friday – NBC Boston --Students walked out of a high school in Medford, Massachusetts, on Friday morning to protest school violence and to call for more to be done to prevent it and punish bad behavior. “It’s definitely becoming more scary to attend school,” said Sam Stanley, a senior. There were two incidents at Medford High School this week. Both were recorded on cell phones and circulated on social media. “I watched one of the videos involving the situation and seeing it I felt incredibly disappointed that situations like this are still going on in the school,” said Stanley. “And I feel like we should finally speak out about it.” One fight involved a boy beating up a girl. In another, two boys were involved. “It’s so violent and psychologically traumatizing too just to have witnessed it,” said senior Sophia Sylvia. “It’s really unbelievable that we have to deal with that in the school.” School officials confirm there have been multiple fights this semester at the high school and middle school. “As a result of the pandemic there are a lot of social emotional needs that have surfaced,” said Medford Superintendent Dr. Marice Edouard-Vincent.
Two teens accused of murdering Fairfield Spanish teacher - Two students have been accused of murdering a 66-year-old Fairfield high school teacher. Nohema Graber was reported missing by family members on Tuesday. Her remains were discovered Wednesday in a local park. Authorities have charged Willard Miller and Jeremy Goodale with first-degree homicide. Miller and Goodale are both 16. According to a news release from the Jefferson County Attorney’s Office, the case against Miller and Goodale will be handled in adult court. Graber was a Spanish teacher at Fairfield high school, where the two teenagers accused of her murder were students.
An Ohio school district said it closed all its schools for a day because of staff shortages. About 5,000 students were affected. - All nine schools in a district in north-east Ohio shut for the day on Monday because of understaffing.The Stow-Munroe Falls City (SMF) School District covers six elementary schools, a high school, a middle school, and an intermediate school. As of May, the district had just over 5,000 students in total."All SMF Schools are closed today due to staff shortages throughout the district," SMF tweeted on Monday morning.The Akron Beacon Journal reported the district as saying that the lack of staff related specifically to its transportation department. The district, which has 51 bus drivers, says that around 2,800 students – just over half its pupils – travel by school bus each day, including field trips and athletic events.The US is suffering from a huge labor shortage as people leave their jobs for roles with better wages, benefits, and hours. Some people are also quitting their jobs because of burnout and fears of catching the coronavirus. Schools across the US have been struggling to find enough staff, including bus drivers, food-services staff, and teachers.Earlier this month, some Denver school districts closed for a day due to understaffing.SMF superintendent Tom Bratten told parents in an email Monday evening, viewed by Insider, that the understaffing was down to a combination of COVID-19, general illness, and a "severe lack of substitutes at all levels of our organization." He said teachers, cafeteria workers, bus drivers, and custodians had all been out sick."Closing our schools is something that none of us ever wants to do and we do not take it lightly," Bratten said, adding that it was a "very difficult last minute decision."
Some Professional Degrees Leave Students With High Debt but Without High Salaries – WSJ - Professional degrees like dentistry and veterinary medicine are leaving many students with immense college debt, threatening the outlook for fields that provide essential public services, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of federal data.The culprits span graduate programs at big state schools, for-profit colleges and some of the U.S.’s elite private universities.Sara Jastrebski finished her veterinary studies at the University of Pennsylvania in May with about $400,000 in student debt, including more than $30,000 in loans from prior studies elsewhere.Now working as an associate veterinarian for about $100,000 a year, Dr. Jastrebski, 29 years old, said she loves being a vet but is haunted by the tremendous cost of her education. “It doesn’t dominate my thoughts, but it’s always there,” she said.In addition to programs for veterinarians and dentists, chiropractic medicine, physical therapy and optometry produced graduates with some of the worst combinations of high debt and modest beginning paychecks, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Education. Students pursuing professional programs can take out loans to cover all their school costs and living expenses under a federal loan program called Grad Plus. Rising student debt is doing more than harming individual borrowers, according to some professional associations and professors. It is also hurting the occupations the borrowers are entering. They cited data showing that rural areas are short of dentists, veterinarians and other health providers, in part because pay is generally lower there and they suspect heavily indebted grads feel compelled to seek out higher paying jobs, often in affluent suburbs.Roughly 76% of professional programs left recent students with higher debt loads at graduation than earnings two years later, the Journal’s analysis of nearly 500 programs classified as professional degrees found. That is worse than other degree types: About 22% of master’s programs in the data had debt loads that high and 11% of bachelor’s programs.In three popular fields—chiropractic medicine, dentistry and veterinary medicine—every professional program with available data had median debt loads that topped median earnings two years after graduation, the latest data available. The Journal previously reported thatmost law degrees leave students with heavy debt, compared with income.The Journal’s analysis of professional programs excluded medical school degrees. That is because graduates seeking licenses to practice medicine are required to complete residencies that are often low paid.
Are we losing the war for our children? - We often read depressing headlines such as, “More than 100,000 individuals died of drug overdoses in one year,” but seldom do we pause to consider the people behind these statistics. Over the past two decades, so-called “designer drugs” have infiltrated the country from South America and China, harming and killing many of our country’s youth in droves. MDMA, ecstasy, fentanyl and other drugs provide an escape for young people from the reality of the world around them. Tragically, for far too many that escape becomes permanent. Something else particularly distressing is the impact that unnecessary medical procedures potentially can have on young people. Around 80 percent of knee operations performed each year may be unnecessary, for example. Apart from the long-term medical consequences of knee surgery — which can result in subsequent operations and restricted mobility — it also can result in drug addiction. Addictive medicines such as Oxycontin and Percocet are given to some patients as young as 13 years old. What if they are among those who then need more of a “fix” once they complete their doctor-prescribed doses? This can lead them to the cheaper, more powerful alternative of heroin. It’s happening throughout the nation today — and many people are dying because of drug overdoses. Even more so, sadness and anxiety have ensnared many young people in a vise-like grasp. “Likes” and “views” on social media have caused some of them to continuously compare themselves to morally bankrupt “influencers” who perhaps became famous by happenstance. These influencers provide a polished version of themselves, not the reality. In turn, young people yearn for their lives and looks — and may become depressed when it becomes unattainable. Drug usage falls squarely in line with this issue as well, because their inability to achieve perfection or their desire to emulate their role models’ actions may lead them down a dark path of self-destruction. Lethal chemicals can be readily acquired from other students and opportunistic drug dealers, particularly on college campuses. Worse, anxiety medications such as Xanax and “study medications” such as Adderall may be readily obtained from physicians. As a result, young people can develop a dangerous addiction to substances that can lead to further drug use or experimentation. The acceptance of these drugs has far-reaching effects, leading some who otherwise might not be predisposed to taking drugs to do so out of peer pressure, necessity or the expectation that the drugs’ normalization should give them safe passage to ingest them. Our youths’ role models do not assist, either. Rappers such as Lil Nas X and Future rap about pervasive immoral conduct and extravagant drug usage. To millions of shouting fans, youth anthems such as Future’s “Mask Off” repeat the mantra “Percocet, molly, Percocet.” Are these rappers unaware that they are promoting the normalization of harmful narcotics among innocent young people? On the other hand, Lil Nas X raps about having sexual relations with Satan, even posting a violentmusic video about it. While rappers are certainly within their rights to espouse these dangerous ideals, it goes without saying that one ought not to light a cigarette in a child’s mouth. What we are seeing in our country is nothing short of a moral decline of epic proportions. We are dying, morally and physically. Much is made ofCOVID-19 fatalities — and rightly so — but with all the attention that the virus receives, shouldn’t we be concentrating just as much, if not more, on the number of young people dying from drug overdoses in our country? Why do the mainstream media seem to be unconcerned with the overdose epidemic? Apart from an occasional headline, few devote much effort to this subject. The silence is deafening, and the carelessness is deadly.
Ohio Jury Finds Three Pharmacy Chains Liable in Opioids Trial; Judge to Decide on Damages Award in Spring --Jerri-Lynn .Last week, in the first opioids jury verdict, to be handed down an Ohio jury found CVS, Walgreen’s, and Walmart liable for contributing to the opioids epidemic.The lawsuit is part of the opioids Multidistrict Litigation (MDL) presided over by federal district court Judge Dan Polster, which consolidates cases filed by more than 3000 communities against drug distributors, manufacturers, and pharmacy chains. MDLs are created by placing complex cases involving common issues of fact under the supervision of one judge (see Opioid Lawsuits: DoJ Seeks to Participate in Settlement Talks for more detail on the MDL procedure).Attorneys for two Ohio counties, Lake and Trumbull, argued that the chains failed to stop filling false prescriptions and to prevent opioids from flooding the counties. Plaintiffs successfully claimed that by supplying the addictive painkillers, the pharmacy chains created a public nuisance – which it cost each county more than $1 billion to clean up.The number of pills shipped to these two Ohio counties alone was eye-popping. The Wall Street Journal reports (based on government data), that between 2006 and 2012, more than 80 million opioid pills were shipped to Trumbull County – population less than 200,000- while 60 million opioid pills were shipped to Lake County – population approximately 230,000.According to the WSJ:The verdict, delivered after a six-week trial, came in a so-called bellwether case that attorneys elsewhere have watched closely. Similar cases across the country continue to play out against pharmaceutical manufacturers and distributors, but Tuesday’s verdict was the first against deep-pocketed pharmacy chains.Bellwether cases typically don’t carry precedential weight, but lawyers on similar cases across the country often use them as guideposts for settlement talks. The Ohio jury decided the liability issue only. Judge Polster will determine what damages the pharmacy chains must pay. In a press conference following the verdict, plaintiffs’ attorney s for the two counties said they would ask for $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion respectively, according to the WSJ.
The opioid crackdown leaves chronic pain patients in limbo - The opioid crisis, which began in the 1990s, is worse than ever. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), for the 12 months ending in April 2021, there were over 100,000 overdose deaths, an increase of 28.5 percent over 2020 levels. Often lost in the understandable concern about these fatalities are millions of chronic pain patients who are unable to get adequate pain relief.In 2012, American physicians wrote the staggering number of 255 million prescriptions for opioid pain relievers. To reduce deaths and other harms, the CDC and other federal and state policymakers focused on significantly decreasing opioid prescribing and usage. By 2020, there were only 142 million opioid prescriptions, although in some parts of the country there are still exceedingly high levels of opioids being prescribed. The reduction in opioid prescriptions, however, did not reduce overdose deaths. In fact, from 2012 to 2021, overdose deaths soared from 41,000 to 100,000, with most deaths now resulting from illegal synthetic opioids — fentanyl and its analogs. Fighting the “war on opioids” at every physician’s office was a terrible mistake, and an unintended consequence has been to increase the suffering of many patients with chronic diseases whose long-term pain management depends on access to opioids. How did we get to this point? Most of the millions of opioid pills taken by patients for pain each year are prescribed by physicians without specialized training in pain management. A study published in 2013, near the height of opioid prescribing, estimated that 20 percent of patients treated in doctors’ offices for pain received an opioid prescription. To address this dangerous overprescribing of opioids, in 2016 the CDC published itsGuideline for Prescribing Opioids for Chronic Pain. It “provides recommendations for the prescribing of pain medication by primary care clinicians for chronic pain . . . in outpatient settings outside of active cancer treatment, palliative care, and end-of-life care.” Some recommendations in the guideline are especially troublesome. First is the recommendation that “Nonpharmacologic therapy and nonopioid therapy are preferred for chronic pain.” In following this recommendation, some doctors have prescribed ineffective over-the-counter pain medicines or talk therapy instead of opioids for patients who have serious injuries and illnesses confirmed by imaging and lab tests, and who have previously tried these measures without benefit. A recent review of the evidence found there is no scientific basis to conclude that non-drug treatments are an adequate substitute for opioids in controlling severe pain. The CDC guideline is also being applied beyond its intended outpatient, primary care settings. Many hospitals and other large health care providers incorrectly believe that any violations of the guideline will lead to civil or even criminal liability, so they drastically restrict opioid prescribing by their physicians. Fear of losing their medical license, staff privileges, or employment, rather than sound medicine, now drives many physicians treating pain. Also, over 30 states have followed the CDC guideline by enacting laws limiting prescribing opioids, further deterring physicians from prescribing opioids, even for responsible patients in great distress. In 2019, the CDC admitted that its guideline was being misused, but it failed to take any action. In 2020, the American Medical Association (AMA) recommended that physicians immediately suspend the use of the CDC guideline to limit, discontinue, or taper a patient’s opioids. The AMAstated: “It is clear that the CDC guideline has harmed many patients.”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: No, Covid 19 Is Not an Old Person Problem – Clearly Covid affects the old, disproportionately. But so do practically almost all other ailments. A simple fact of life, in a population, it is the old that die disproportionally of all causes. If you look at the force of mortality of the population, you would notice that Covid reduces life expectancy across the board in proportion to people’s mortality, an effect at starts before middle age. Fig 1- Multiplier of the Force of Mortality Across Age Groups >30, Nov. 2021. For the youth the ratio is both lower and much more unstable owing the rarity of both death and death from COVID. Now the numbers in the graph represent the boost in mortality for all citizens over the period concerned (U.S. fatalities represents about 800K and counting, not taking into account a potential underestimation by ~200K). Now this represents the mortality boost after all mitigating measures, which includes travel restrictions, quarantines, lockdowns, vaccines, isolation, masks, etc. Nor does the graph above show the delayed effects of morbidity. Recall that only 48 million U.S. citizens have been reportedly affected so far. Should the entire population be infected (what some ignorant idiots call “herd immunity”), the effect would potentially be multiplied by >5 (or, taking into account the underestimation of cases, perhaps >3).Now if we were to compute the effect on life expectancy, note that the effect acts across the board: a 30 year old loses more than 50 years of life, an 80 y.o. loses about a decade, etc The inconsistency is as followsIf Covid is an old person problem, deserving to be ignored on that account, let’s treat cardiology, oncology, urology, and most of internal medicine in the same manner.The “old person problem” related to Covid becomes effectively an argument of unconditional eugenics, unconditional senicide/geronticide. The main trait in civilized society is to protect the weak: Ancient Mediterraneans gave a higher status to the elderly (senators). The same with almost every society that is not decaying.The same people who advocate senicide fail to get counterfactuals right. For instance, just as one legislator one day announced that airplane checks were redundant (and costly) because there had been no recent terrorist incidents, many are arguing about mitigating measures on ground that fewer people have been dying on Covid.
Merck says its antiviral pill is less effective than initially reported. -The pharmaceutical company Merck said on Friday that in a final analysis of a clinical trial, its antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death among high-risk Covid patients by 30 percent, down from an earlier estimate of 50 percent.The lower efficacy is a disappointment for the drug, known as molnupiravir, which health officials around the world are counting on as a critical tool to save lives and reduce the burden on hospitals. It increases the importance of a similar, apparently more effective, offering from Pfizer that is also under review by the Food and Drug Administration.A panel of advisers to the F.D.A. is set to meet on Tuesday to discuss Merck’s treatment and vote on whether to recommend authorizing it to treat high-risk Covid patients.In briefing documents posted to the F.D.A.’s website on Friday, agency reviewers did not take a position on whether the drug should be authorized, though they found that the clinical trial data did not show any major safety concerns and that the drug was effective in preventing severe disease.The reviewers said they had only become aware of the updated efficacy estimate earlier this week and were still reviewing the data. They said they could update their assessment when the panel meets on Tuesday. Merck’s initial estimate that the drug reduced hospitalization and death by 50 percent came from an early look at results from 775 study participants. The updated figure announced on Friday came from more than 1,400. In the final analysis, the participants who received molnupiravir had a 6.8 percent risk of being hospitalized, and one patient died. Those who received a placebo had a 9.7 percent risk of being hospitalized, and nine died. Dr. David Boulware, an infectious disease researcher at the University of Minnesota, said he expected the drug would still receive emergency authorization. If the expert committee endorses it and the F.D.A. heeds the recommendation, the treatment could be authorized in the United States as soon as next week.
FDA review finds Merck’s COVID-19 pill effective, but flags safety concerns - LA Times -Federal health regulators say an experimental COVID-19 pill developed by Merck is effective against the coronavirus, but they will seek input from independent advisors on risks of birth defects and other potential problems during pregnancy.The Food and Drug Administration posted its analysis of the pill last week ahead ofa public meeting Tuesday, when a panel of experts will weigh in on its safety and effectiveness. The agency isn’t required to follow the panel’s advice.The FDA scientists said their review identified several potential risks, including possible toxicity to developing fetuses and birth defects that were identified in studies of the pill conducted in animals.Given those risks, the FDA will ask its advisors whether the drug should never be given during pregnancy or whether it could be made available in certain cases. Under that scenario, the FDA said the drug would carry warnings about risks during pregnancy, but doctors would still have the option to prescribe it in certain cases where its benefits could outweigh its risks for patients.Given the safety concerns, FDA said Merck agreed the drug would not be used in children.Other side effects were mild and rare, with about 2% of patients experiencing diarrhea. Regulators also noted that Merck collected far less safety data overall on its drug than was gathered for other COVID-19 therapies.“While the clinical safety data base was small, there were no major safety concerns identified,” FDA reviewers concluded.
The majority of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies in COVID-19 patients with obesity are autoimmune and not neutralizing – Abstract - Obesity decreases the secretion of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies in the blood of COVID-19 patients. How obesity impacts the quality of the antibodies secreted, however, is not understood. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate the presence of neutralizing versus autoimmune antibodies in COVID-19 patients with obesity. Thirty serum samples from individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT-PCR were collected from inpatient and outpatient settings. Of these, 15 were lean (BMI < 25) and 15 were obese (BMI ≥ 30). Control serum samples were from 30 uninfected individuals, age-, gender-, and BMI-matched, recruited before the current pandemic. Neutralizing and autoimmune antibodies were measured by ELISA. IgG autoimmune antibodies were specific for malondialdehyde (MDA), a marker of oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation, and for adipocyte-derived protein antigens (AD), markers of virus-induced cell death in the obese adipose tissue. Results: SARS-CoV-2 infection induces neutralizing antibodies in all lean but only in few obese COVID-19 patients. SARS-CoV-2 infection also induces anti-MDA and anti-AD autoimmune antibodies more in lean than in obese patients as compared to uninfected controls. Serum levels of these autoimmune antibodies, however, are always higher in obese versus lean COVID-19 patients. Moreover, because the autoimmune antibodies found in serum samples of COVID-19 patients have been correlated with serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), a general marker of inflammation, we also evaluated the association of anti-MDA and anti-AD antibodies with serum CRP and found a positive association between CRP and autoimmune antibodies. Our results highlight the importance of evaluating the quality of the antibody response in COVID-19 patients with obesity, particularly the presence of autoimmune antibodies, and identify biomarkers of self-tolerance breakdown. This is crucial to protect this vulnerable population at higher risk of responding poorly to infection with SARS-CoV-2 than lean controls.
Omicron variant showing ‘unusual but mild’ symptoms, South African doctor says - The South African doctor who alerted officials of the possibility of a new variant, later named omicron, says the “unusual but mild” symptoms are what caught her attention. In a FOX News report, Dr. Angelique Coetzee, who is a board member of the South African Medical Association, said she first noticed unusual symptoms on Nov. 18. “It presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness for a day or two not feeling well,” Coetzee said. “So far, we have detected that those infected do not suffer the loss of taste or smell. They might have a slight cough.”She went on to say that of those who are infected, they are being treated at home.Coetzee says that after two dozen of her patients tested positive for COVID and displayed these new symptoms, she alerted officials to the possibility of a new variant.The World Health Organization (WHO) held an emergency meeting on Friday, where it designated the new strain, which it called omicron, a “variant of concern.”Most of Coetzee’s patients were men who reported “feeling so tired,” and half of them were unvaccinated. The patients have a range of ages and ethnicities, including “one very interesting case” of a six-year-old child with a fever and “very high pulse rate,” she explained. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told viewers in an interview on Weekend TODAY Saturday that it was possible the omicron variant is already in the United States.
WHO: Omicron Covid variant poses very high risk, global spread likely — The omicron variant of the coronavirus is likely to spread further and poses a "very high" global risk, according to the World Health Organization, which warned Monday that surges of Covid infections caused by the variant of concern could have "severe consequences" for some areas."Given mutations that may confer immune escape potential and possibly transmissibility advantage, the likelihood of potential further spread of Omicron at the global level is high," the WHO said in its risk assessment on Monday within a technical brief to its 194 member states."Depending on these characteristics, there could be future surges of Covid-19, which could have severe consequences, depending on a number of factors including where surges may take place. The overall global risk related to the new VOC [variant of concern] Omicron is assessed as very high," the U.N. health agency said. It said in its report on Monday that it is "a highly divergent variant with a high number of mutations ... some of which are concerning and may be associated with immune escape potential and higher transmissibility."However, there are still considerable uncertainties and unknowns regarding this variant, it said, repeating that sentiment Monday.First of all, experts don't yet know just how transmissible the variant is and whether any increases in infections are related to immune escape, intrinsic increased transmissibility, or both.Secondly, there is uncertainty over how well vaccines protect against infection, transmission and clinical disease of different degrees of severity, and death. And third of all, there is uncertainty over whether the variant presents with a different severity profile. The WHO has said it will take weeks to understand how the variant may affect diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines. Preliminary evidence suggests the strain has an increased risk of reinfection, however. Early data suggests that the variant is spreading in South Africa more rapidly than previous strains did and that the variant could be starting to trigger a new wave of infections, according to an analysis by the Financial Times.Covid symptoms linked to omicron have been described as "extremely mild" by the South African doctor who first raised the alarm over the new strain. It's very important to remember that, so far, there have only been a small number of cases reported around the world — in several southern African countries and a smattering of cases in the U.K., France, Israel, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Australia, Canada and Hong Kong, but none yet in the U.S. — so it could take a while to fully understand what specific symptoms, if any, are attributable to the omicron variant on a wider scale.
WHO says Omicron variant poses risk of global infection surge - Countries around the world struggled to come to terms with a bleak new turn in the nearly 2-year-old pandemic, with the World Health Organization warning Monday that Omicron, a highly mutated variant of the coronavirus, poses a “very high” global risk of new outbreaks.The variant’s emergence “underlines just how perilous and precarious our situation is,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Monday.“We shouldn’t need another wake-up call,” said Tedros. “We should all be wide awake to the threat of this virus.” In measures reminiscent of the outbreak’s early days, when the virus swiftly circumnavigated the globe, some governments moved to impose travel bans and border closures in a bid to keep the variant at bay.Japan said Monday it would bar non-citizens from entry, becoming the second country, after Israel, to do so. Morocco went a step further, barring all incoming flights for two weeks, and many nations have restricted travel from South Africa, where the variant was detected last week.But Omicron has already been detected in more than a dozen countries, including the U.S.’s northern neighbor, Canada, and health authorities said the variant’s contagiousness, and the wide geographic dispersal of existing cases, suggest it is already in wide circulation.Regions where the mutation has been found range from Europe to the Middle East to East Asia, in countries that include Britain, Germany, France, Portugal, Denmark, Israel, Hong Kong and Australia.Experts stressed that much remains unknown about this variant, including the severity of illness it causes — no deaths have yet been attributed to it — and how effective existing vaccines are against it.
Scientists are studying whether Omicron leads to severe illness.- As nations severed air links from southern Africa amid fears of another global surge of the coronavirus, scientists scrambled on Sunday to gather data on the new Omicron variant, its capabilities and — perhaps most important — how effectively the current vaccines will protect against it.The early findings are a mixed picture. The variant may be more transmissible and better able to evade the body’s immune responses, both to vaccination and to natural infection, than prior versions of the virus, experts said in interviews.The vaccines may well continue to ward off severe illness and death, although booster doses may be needed to protect most people. Still, the makers of the two most effective vaccines, Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, are preparing to reformulate their shots if necessary.“We really need to be vigilant about this new variant and preparing for it,” said Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle.Even as scientists began vigorous scrutiny of the new variant, countries around the world curtailed travel to and from nations in southern Africa, where Omicron was first identified. Despite the restrictions, the virus has been found in a half-dozen European countries, including the United Kingdom, as well as Australia, Israel and Hong Kong.Already, Omicron accounts for most of the 2,300 new daily cases in the province of Gauteng, South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced on Sunday. Nationally, new infections have more than tripled in the past week, and test positivity has increased to 9 percent from 2 percent.Scientists have reacted more quickly to Omicron than to any other variant. In just 36 hours from the first signs of trouble in South Africa on Tuesday, researchers analyzed samples from 100 infected patients, collated the data and alerted the world, said Tulio de Oliveira, a geneticist at the Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine in Durban.Within an hour of the first alarm, scientists in South Africa also rushed to test Covid vaccines against the new variant. Now, dozens of teams worldwide — including researchers at Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna — have joined the chase.They won’t know the results for two weeks, at the earliest. But the mutations that Omicron carries suggest that the vaccines most likely will be less effective, to some unknown degree, than they were against any previous variant.
Scientists call for urgent action to save lives as Omicron variant of COVID-19 spreads globally - Over the weekend, new cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, which appears to spread more rapidly than other strains and could be deadlier, were found in Australia, Belgium, Botswana, Britain, Denmark, Germany, Hong Kong, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, France and Canada. The rapid spread of the new variant has been greeted with passivity by governments around the world, which have rejected the closures of schools and nonessential businesses even as the current surge of the Delta variant has led to record COVID-19 cases. “The Omicron variant is probably everywhere, and it now has a huge capability to mutate,” immunologist Dr. Anthony Leonardi told us. “As it outpaces Delta, it’s going to create even more infections. It’ll therefore evolve even faster than Delta. But you never know because any one of these variants can now get into an immunocompromised person and just do some fantastic evolution.” Leonardi added, “And, so, we have to change how we deal with it completely.” Condemning government complacency, Leonardi tweeted yesterday, “If you wait for bodies to pile up as evidence, those are your friends, family, and neighbors. It’s unethical to sit on your hands. The spike has shifted conformation at many key sites. The spread is rapid in places with high convalescence. Be responsible!” Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding tweeted, “Lots of misinformation now being floated that #Omicron is ‘mild.’ That’s nonsense — based on out-of-context quote. Don’t fall for it — nobody knows that much yet. And hospitalizations are still rising in the hardest hit #B11529 dominant provinces in South Africa. On Sunday, Anthony Fauci, the chief medical adviser to US President Joe Biden, refused to call for any new measures to stop the dangerous new variant, instead insisting the population had to “live with” the disease. Dr. Jorge A. Caballero, in response to Fauci’s appearance on “Meet the Press,” tweeted, “I’ve seen enough. We need bold strategic changes, and the current White House Response team isn’t up to the task … Omicron variant should be a wake-up call. If today’s Sunday Morning talk shows are any indication, the White House COVID Response team is asleep at the wheel.” He added, “Global data strongly suggests that we need more than 85 percent of the *total population* to be fully vaccinated in order to *safely* relax mask mandates.” “Given that the Omicron variant may at least partially evade the protection offered by vaccines, it is important that all countries expand public health and social measures to limit COVID-19 transmission,” Yaneer Bar-Yam, founder of the World Health Network, said. “The public must be warned about the importance of public health measures in addition to vaccination to safeguard their own health and family members.”
World Medical Association boss compares new strain of COVID-19 with Ebola --Frank Ulrich Montgomery, president of the World Medical Association (WMA), believes the new strain of omicron coronavirus could become as dangerous as the Ebola virus. He said this in an interview with the Funke media group, says RIA Novosti. According to him, the exact danger of this stock is not yet known, but it is likely to spread very quickly. South African Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong have identified ten cases of infection with a new strain of COVID-19 called B.1.1.529 that may be more pathogenic than other variants of the coronavirus. It contains 32 mutations, some of which show its high infectivity and resistance to vaccines, and has more changes in the peak protein than in all other COVID-19 variants.
Omicron variant: Why scientists and the world reacted so quickly - When Jeremy Kamil got his first look at B.1.1.529, the Covid variant that would soon be named omicron, it did not take long to see the differences. The variant's spike proteins, which cover the outside of the virus and are the main targets of vaccines and the body’s immune responses, had more than 30 mutations that made it different from the virus that first emerged in late 2019. “The number of changes blew people’s minds,” Kamil, an associate professor of microbiology and immunology at Louisiana State University Health Shreveport, said. The World Health Organization has identified and tracked more than 20 Covid variants. Yet unlike others that popped up around the world before mostly fizzling out (including the lambda variant that was first documented last December in Peru or the mu variant detected a month later in Colombia), experts say there were early signs that omicron’s cocktail of mutations made it different and worthy of swift action — even overreaction. While it’s too soon to know what the mutations mean for the effectiveness of vaccines or how sick people could become from the variant, omicron’s emergence also highlights the frustrating reality of the Covid pandemic: Variants will continue to pose a serious threat until countries around the world have more equal and ready access to vaccines, experts say. “It’s definitely sobering,” Kamil said. “It’s an exaggeration to say we’re back at square one, but this is not a good development.” Within hours of the World Health Organization designating omicron a “variant of concern” on Friday, dozens of countries imposed new travel bans, places that had loosened restrictions reintroduced mask mandates and anxieties ran high. It was the kind of quick and intense development reminiscent of early stages of the pandemic, prompting some concern that governments were overreacting before enough about omicron was known. “It’s partly why people started facetiously calling these things ‘scariants,’” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease doctor and a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. But even before it was given the omicron designation, the variant quickly gained attention among Covid researchers. South Africa was first to report clusters of cases last week involving the omicron variant. Days before, data on the newly identified variant had also been uploaded to GISAID, an online database for disease variants, by a research team in Hong Kong, followed by more early sequences from scientists in Botswana. The number of mutations observed with the omicron variant has not been previously seen with other strains, Adalja said. There are concerns that specific mutations to the spike protein could make omicron less vulnerable to the so-called neutralizing antibodies generated by vaccines or natural immunity from prior Covid-19 infections. "There's a very good chance this variant will be very resistant to neutralizing antibodies, but we can't yet say with any degree of certainty how resistant," said Theodora Hatziioannou, a virologist at Rockefeller University in New York City.
Pfizer to apply for COVID-19 booster approval for 16- and 17-year-olds: report -Pfizer and BioNTech are reportedly set to seek approval for booster shots of their COVID-19 vaccine for 16- and 17-year-olds.People familiar with the company's plans told The Washington Post that the Food and Drug Administration is expected to approve the company’s request for the additional shots quickly. Currently, Americans ages 18 and older are eligible for booster shots six months after their second doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or two months after the single dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The possible expansion of booster eligibility comes as concerns surrounding the new omicron variant mount.On Monday, President Biden said omicron "is a cause for concern, not a cause for panic" and that lockdowns to address it are not needed.“On Thursday, I'll be putting forward a detailed strategy outlining how we're going to fight COVID this winter, not with shutdowns or lockdowns but with more widespread vaccinations, boosters, testing and more,” Biden said.Last week, in a statement about the variant, Biden touted booster shots and encouraged those who were eligible to get their additional doses. "First, for those Americans who are fully vaccinated against severe COVID illness — fortunately, for the vast majority of our adults — the best way to strengthen your protection is to get a booster shot, as soon as you are eligible," he said on Friday.
Do vaccines protect against long COVID? What the data say - Nature. -Mount Sinai Hospital’s Abilities Research Center in New York City, one of three clinics that Putrino directs, treats another 50–100 people each week who are coping with issues such as extreme fatigue, breathlessness, difficulty concentrating or any of the many other symptoms of long COVID — the long-lasting, poorly understood syndrome that can occur after infection with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. He has 1,600 clients with long COVID, and more on a waiting list.Putrino has noticed that even being fully vaccinated doesn’t necessarily protect against long COVID. Many of his clients were infected before vaccines were rolled out, and had been coping with symptoms for a year or more before they were referred to him. But he has seen about a dozen people who experienced long COVID from ‘breakthrough’ infections — in which vaccinated people catch the coronavirus. “It is noticeably less common than in unvaccinated people, but it’s still there,” he says. He thinks that clinics could see more such cases as the months tick by.Vaccines reduce the risk of long COVID by lowering the chances of contracting COVID-19 in the first place. But for those who do experience a breakthrough i nfection, studies suggest that vaccination might only halve the risk of long COVID — or have no effect on it at all1,2. Understanding the prevalence of long COVID among vaccinated people has urgent public-health implications as restrictions that limited viral spread are eased in some countries. It could also offer clues about what causes lingering COVID-19 symptoms long after the acute infection has cleared.At present, public-health officials are flying blind when it comes to long COVID and vaccination. Although vaccines greatly reduce the rates of serious illness and death caused by COVID-19, they are not as effective at completely preventing the disease, and long COVID can arise even after a mild or asymptomatic coronavirus infection. Countries with high infection rates could still end up with many cases of long COVID, even if nations have high rates of vaccination. “That is hard to predict,” says Nisreen Alwan, an epidemiologist at the University of Southampton, UK, who has had long COVID. “We still need to see how much long COVID there is and how long it lasts after vaccination.”
New Harvard study declares winner between Pfizer and Moderna vaccines - A new study published in The New England Journal of Medicine claims that the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine is slightly more effective than the Pfizer inoculation. The study was conducted by researchers from the CAUSALab at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Medical School, the Brigham and Women’s Hospital along with the Veterans Administration was published online on Dec. 1. Researchers stressed that both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19 and that the difference in protection against the virus offered by each vaccine is tiny.The study used the health records of just under 440,000 U.S. veterans who were inoculated against the virus using the Pfizer vaccine, and the other half with the Moderna shots, between Jan. 4 and May 21 of this year, according to Harvard Magazine. All of the veterans used for the study were over the age of 18 and had not been infected with the virus prior to being vaccinated, the study notes. Researchers found that those who received the Pfizer vaccine had a roughly 27 percent higher chance of becoming sick from COVID-19 during a 24-week follow up period to their first dose and a 70 percent greater chance of being hospitalized during that time frame when the alpha variant was dominant. This is compared to those who received the Moderna vaccine.In addition, researchers estimated among the test groups there were 5.75 COVID-19 infections for every 1,000 people who received the Pfizer shot and 4.52 infections for every 1,000 people in the Moderna group during the time this year when the alpha COVID variant was dominant. Once delta became the dominant variant, researchers found an extra 6.54 COVID-19 infections for every 1,000 people in the Pfizer vaccine group. Researchers are unclear as to why there is a difference, albeit small, among the two vaccines but one theory is that it has to do with the different messenger RNA (mRNA) contents of the vaccines, the space between doses and the “ lipid composition of the nanoparticles” used for packaging the mRNA, according to the study. Both the Pfizer vaccine and the Moderna vaccine use lab-created mRNA to teach cells how to create a protein which then triggers an immune response in the body, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Moderna vaccine has just over three times as many micrograms of the mRNA content than the Pfizer-BioNTech inoculation, the study says.
Omicron Prompts Swift Reconsideration of Boosters Among Scientists - As recently as last week, many public health experts were fiercely opposed to the Biden administration’s campaign to roll out booster shots of the coronavirus vaccines to all American adults. There was little scientific evidence to support extra doses for most people, the researchers said.The Omicron variant has changed all that.Scientists do not yet know with any certainty whether the virus is easier to spread or less vulnerable to the body’s immune response. But with dozens of new mutations, the variant seems likely to evade the protection from vaccines to some significant degree.Booster shots clearly raise antibody levels, strengthening the body’s defenses against infection, and may help offset whatever advantages Omicron has gained through evolution.Many of the experts who were opposed to boosters now believe that the shots may offer the best defense against the new variant. The extra doses may slow the spread, at least, buying time for vaccine makers to develop an Omicron-specific formulation, if needed.“Based on what we know about the potential for immune evasion, I would err on the side of giving the booster,” said Dr. Celine Gounder, an infectious disease specialist at Bellevue Hospital Center who had opposed the Biden administration’s boosters-for-all push.The administration isn’t waiting for scientific consensus. Alarmed by the preliminary reports about Omicron, officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday that all American adults should receive booster shots.The first confirmed Omicron infection in the United States was reported on Wednesday in San Francisco, in a traveler who returned to California from South Africa on Nov. 22. The individual had been fully vaccinated — but had not received a booster — and showed mild symptoms that were said to be improving.The Omicron variant, first identified in southern Africa, has been discovered in at least 20 countries, and the World Health Organization has warned that the risk posed by the virus is “very high.” After news of the variant’s spread in South Africa, countries around the world have curtailed air travel to and from southern Africa. Omicron carries more than 50 genetic mutations, more than 30 of them on the virus’s spike, a protein on its surface. Vaccines train the body’s immune defenses to target and attack these spikes.
All vaccinated adults should get a Covid-19 booster shot because of the Omicron variant, CDC says - The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention strengthened recommendations for booster doses of coronavirus vaccine Monday, saying all adults should get boosted six months after the second dose of Pfizer/BioNTech's or Moderna's vaccine or two months after the single dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine.It's a slight but significant tweak to the wording of guidance issued earlier this month when the CDC endorsed an expanded emergency use authorization for boosters from the US Food and Drug Administration."Today, CDC is strengthening its recommendation on booster doses for individuals who are 18 years and older," CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said in a statement."The recent emergence of the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) further emphasizes the importance of vaccination, boosters, and prevention efforts needed to protect against COVID-19," she added. "Early data from South Africa suggest increased transmissibility of the Omicron variant, and scientists in the United States and around the world are urgently examining vaccine effectiveness related to this variant. I strongly encourage the 47 million adults who are not yet vaccinated to get vaccinated as soon as possible and to vaccinate the children and teens in their families as well because strong immunity will likely prevent serious illness."Previously, the CDC said people should get a booster if they are 50 and older, or 18 and older and living in long term care. Otherwise, it advised that anyone 18 and older may get a booster. Now the word "should" applies to everyone 18 and older.It will take a few weeks of testing to know for sure whether the Omicron variant is more transmissible than Delta, and whether it evades the protection offered by natural infection or vaccines. Scientists will also be looking to see if it causes more severe disease or evades the effects of treatments.In the meantime, CDC will be watching for Omicron to appear in the US. That requires an extra step of testing as the tests used to diagnose Covid-19 won't tell people which variant they are infected with. "I also want to encourage people to get a COVID-19 test if they are sick. Increased testing will help us identify Omicron quickly," Walensky said."And finally, to stop the spread of COVID-19 we need to follow the prevention strategies we know work," she added. These include vaccination, wearing masks, improving ventilation indoors and keeping a distance from others, especially if they are unvaccinated.’
Vaccine efficacy for Omicron has likely dropped: Moderna CEO - Vaccine efficacy for the “highly contagious” Omicron variant has likely dropped — but the full data won’t be available for at least two weeks, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel warned on Monday.“We need to wait for the data to see if it’s true and how much it is going down,” the drugmaker boss told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”Omicron already appears to be “much more infectious” than the Delta variant and is on track to become the most dominant strain in southern Africa in a matter of weeks, according to Bancel.“It took four months for Delta variant to overtake Beta variant. Omicron is overtaking Delta in South Africa in a few weeks,” he said. “We believe this virus is highly contagious. We need to get more data to confirm this but it seems to be much more infectious than Delta, which is problematic.” Bancel added, “[There is] a lot of mutations in the spike protein, which is important for the vaccine. I don’t believe many people would have predicted such a big jump in evolution in one variant.”The drugmaker predicted that the majority of countries with direct flights from southern Africa within the last seven to 10 days would already have Omicron cases — even if they haven’t been detected yet.He added that the measures taken by some countries, including the US, to ban flights from the eight countries in that region could “slow down the progress of the virus while we figure out the efficacy of the vaccine.”
Do Existing COVID Vaccines Protect Against Omicron? Boston Doctors Explain - Politicians and medical experts in Massachusetts are urging people to get vaccinated against COVID-19 amid growing concern over the omicron variant, but whether the vaccines protect against the new strain remains unclear.First detected in South Africa, the highly mutated variant has been found in 24 countries so far. Federal officials confirmed the first case in the United States on Wednesday.NBC10 Boston asked three top Boston doctors on Tuesday to explain what we do know about the omicron variant and coronavirus vaccine efficacy in the weekly "COVID Q&A" series.Experts say they aren't sure if the omicron variant can evade the existing COVID-19 vaccines or natural antibodies.Yet doctors continue to urge people to get boosted and vaccinated against the coronavirus. Hamer noted that, while omicron has been classified as a "variant of concern" by the World Health Organization, delta remains the predominant strain."First of all, we should continue to try and increase vaccination coverage for those who have not had it. We should be thinking about boosters for those who are due for boosters. And that's more just because delta is still circulating," Hamer said. "Delta is predominant."New England states have seen a steady rise in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations, including Maine, Vermont and to a lesser extent, New Hampshire, Hamer said. Massachusetts' COVID metrics have also been rising lately as hospitals struggle with bed and staffing shortages."A lot of the hospitalizations are people that have not been vaccinated," Hamer said. "And so it still remains our best tool to limit the spread of disease to decrease the risk of their disease, hospitalization and death. And we don't know whether these vaccines, as currently formulated, will protect against this new variant, but right now we're still dealing with delta primarily in the U.S."Dr. Shira Doron, the hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, said even if the vaccines prove to be less effective against the new strain, that can often be overcome with a booster, even one of the original formulation of the vaccine. "I think it's important to point out that it isn't an on off switch. It isn't a black and white question," she said. "It isn't going to be the case that, if this variant is immune-evading, that that means the vaccines are ineffective and useless." Meanwhile, pharmaceutical companies like Moderna, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson are already adjusting their existing COVID-19 vaccines to better attack the omicron variant. "That's really what the companies are rushing to figure out right now," Doron said. "Are the existing vaccines -- boosted or unboosted -- with the original formulation, capable of neutralizing this variant? And then if not, would an additional booster with a more targeted formulation of vaccine be warranted? And if so, then they can get that produced fairly quickly by the beginning of 2022."
WHO Advises People Over 60 Not to Travel Amid Omicron Variant Spread -- The World Health Organization advised people over 60 years old and those with underlying conditions to postpone travel plans as the world tries to understand the Omicron coronavirus variant.The WHO noted that the variant (B.1.1.529) has been reported in several countries and is expected to spread.While the WHO said not everything is understood about the Omicron variant, which the agency dubbed a "variant of concern," the variant raised red flags after initial data suggested its mutations might make it more likely for someone to be reinfected with COVID-19. "WHO is closely monitoring the spread of the Omicron variant, and studies are ongoing to understand more about these mutations and their impact on transmissibility, virulence, diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines," the organization said in a press release.They also said people who are are unwell, or who have not been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 should exercise caution while traveling.While the WHO issued caution for those with increased risk of developing severe symptoms of COVID-19, the agency said "blanket travel bans" will "not prevent the international spread, and they place a heavy burden on lives and livelihoods."The organization encouraged all travelers to remain vigilant for symptoms, adhere to public health measures, and get vaccinated.
Omicron coronavirus variant possibly more infectious due to sharing genetic code with common cold, study says - - The omicron variant is likely to have picked up genetic material from another virus that causes the common cold in humans, according to a new preliminary study, prompting one of its authors to suggest omicron could have greater transmissibility but lower virulence than other variants of the coronavirus. Researchers from Nference, a Cambridge, Mass.-based firm that analyzes biomedical information, sequenced omicron and found a snippet of genetic code that is also present in a virus that can bring about a cold. They say this particular mutation could have occurred in a host simultaneously infected by SARS-CoV-2, also known as the novel coronavirus, and the HCoV-229E coronavirus, which can cause the common cold. The shared genetic code with HCoV-229E has not been detected in other novel coronavirus variants, the scientists said. The study is in preprint and has not been peer-reviewed.The “striking” similarity between omicron and HCoV-229E could have made the former “more accustomed to human hosts” and likely to evade some immune system responses, said Venky Soundararajan, a biological engineer who co-wrote the study. “By virtue of omicron adopting this insertion … it is essentially taking a leaf out of the seasonal coronaviruses’ page, which [explains] … how it lives and transmits more efficiently with human beings,” he said.
Covid cases rise nationwide, causing ‘almost unmanageable strain’ in Michigan - — At Spectrum Health, a major health-care system here, officials spent part of last week debating whether to move to “red status” in a show of how strained hospitals had become. A flood of mostly unvaccinated covid-19 patients was arriving at emergency departments already packed with people suffering other medical issues, sending capacity to unprecedented levels. The only hesitation for Spectrum’s decision-makers? Data suggested the covid surge was not over. “We don’t have a darker color,” said Darryl Elmouchi, president of Spectrum Health West Michigan. “So if we’re red now, what are we in two weeks?” He and other leaders ultimately decided Thursday to make the change, upgrading the health-care system to the most serious tier for the first time since the pandemic began. In recent days, the state had emerged as a new covid hot spot, leading the nation in new infections and hospitalizations. By the end of last week, its seven-day average of new cases had hit a pandemic high. State leaders asked the U.S. Department of Defense to provide emergency hospital staffing to handle the surge — a request granted Wednesday. Coronavirus cases are on the rise nationally, an unwelcome trend after leveling off earlier this fall. On Monday, the United States reported a seven-day daily average of just under 93,000 cases — an 18 percent jump from a week earlier, according to figures from a briefing by the White House covid-19 response team. Hospitalizations were also up, increasing 6 percent to about 5,600 patients admitted per day. At least two dozen states have seen cases rise at least 5 percent in the past two weeks, with Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire and North Dakota each recording per capita jumps of more than 60 percent. Some highly vaccinated states, including Vermont and Massachusetts, were also seeing steep rises in cases. The growing caseload across the country has raised the specter of another surge this winter — what would be the nation’s fifth. Expert opinions vary, but Amber D’Souza, a professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said a surge seems imminent. This one, though, could prove to be much milder than last winter’s due to vaccines, boosters and therapeutics that were not available last year.
Michigan COVID-19 hospitalizations hit new pandemic record - Michigan continued as a major flashpoint of the pandemic in the US on Monday as the number of coronavirus patients in hospital beds in the state hit a new record since the public health crisis began approximately 20 months ago. 111,156 fans fill the Michigan Stadium field after an NCAA college football game between the University of Michigan and Ohio State, Saturday, Nov. 27, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Ding) The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) updated its COVID-19 patient census following the Thanksgiving holiday weekend showing that 4,185 people were hospitalized with confirmed cases across the state and that 83 percent of bed capacity is now occupied. The previous largest number of confirmed coronavirus hospitalizations was 4,158 and was set last April during the third wave of the pandemic in the state. Hospitalizations have been increasing steadily for 19 weeks, and the surge is associated with the Delta variant of the virus which has primarily singled out for infection those who are unvaccinated. Hospitalizations began accelerating in early November and nearly doubled from a total of 2,249 in the space of four weeks. State health officials have said almost all the new infections requiring hospitalization are from the Delta variant of the virus. Meanwhile, there are now 139 children now hospitalized with COVID-19, another grim new record for the state. A substantial majority of those being admitted to Michigan hospitals are unvaccinated. According to Dr. Dennis Cunningham, Henry Ford Health System Director of Infection Control and Prevention, there are a small number of vaccinated people coming into the hospital with COVID-19, “but they have immune systems that don’t work really well either because they’re the elderly or have underlying medical problems like cancer or an organ transplant.” Dr. Matthew Sims, director of infectious diseases research at Beaumont Health, said that the patients coming into the system’s hospitals are “almost exclusively unvaccinated,” and the numbers of these patients “in the last couple of days have gone up.”
Ohio reports 9,131 more COVID-19 cases: daily coronavirus update for Thursday, Dec. 2 - — The state of Ohio on Thursday reported 9,131 new cases of COVID-19, the most for as single day since Jan. 8. Thursday’s total was up from 8,944 new cases Wednesday and well above the 21-day average of 5,595. Ohio’s death toll since the beginning of the pandemic early last year now stands at 26,587. COVID-19 deaths are reported twice a week, on Tuesdays and Fridays, though often the cases the deaths being reported are weeks old. A total of 6,782,133 Ohioans have received at least one vaccination, representing about 61.7% of Ohioans age 5 and up. Among the 12,372 deaths this year in which vaccination status was known, 594 involved people who were fully vaccinated. Fully vaccinated people have accounted for 2,289 of 40,227 hospitalizations since Jan. 1. These details are updated weekly.The state does not report for cases whether people were vaccinated.Thursday’s recap.
- * Total reported cases: 1,708,292, up 9,131.
- * Total reported hospitalizations: 87,244, up 366.
- * Total reported ICU admissions: 10,848, up 41.
December 2nd COVID-19: Hospitalizations Increasing - The CDC is the source for all data. According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 464,445,580. : For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID). Note: COVID will probably stay endemic (at least for some time). 5 states have achieved 70% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 73.1%, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maine, and Massachusetts at 71.4%. 16 states and D.C. have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: New York at 68.7%, New Jersey, Maryland, Washington, Virginia, New Hampshire, Oregon, District of Columbia, New Mexico, Colorado, California, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Delaware, Florida, and Hawaii at 61.1%. 19 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Wisconsin at 59.7%, Nebraska, Iowa, Utah, Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Arizona, Nevada, South Dakota, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Kentucky, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri and Indiana at 50.7%. This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.
Southern states fall behind in vaccinating kids as pediatric infections climb Many Southern states, especially Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi, have fallen behind the rest of the nation in vaccinating children as the threat of a winter surge casts a pall over the holiday season. Those states also rank near the bottom for vaccinating adolescents and adults, and have among the nation’s highest overall covid-19 death rates, according to a review of state vaccination and death data by The Washington Post. Their slow uptake of children’s — as well as adults’ — vaccines have heightened fears that another pandemic wave could hit hard as families gather for the holidays and spend more time indoors. “I think it is a potentially dangerous situation,” said Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. “You’re going to have a large number of susceptible people all in one place, especially in communities where vaccine rates are generally low and the transmission is higher.” Those concerns increase as colder weather drives families inside for social gatherings and playdates, Offit said, adding. “It is, at its heart, a winter virus.” Many parents rushed to get their young children vaccinated after federal officials signed off on the long-awaited pediatric dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine earlier this month. More than 3.6 million kids, nearly 13 percent of the nation’s children ages 5 to 11, have received a first dose since Nov. 2. But state data show huge differences in uptake that appear to mirror the distribution of adult vaccines: While parents in states like Massachusetts and Rhode Island raced to get their children vaccinated, the pattern has been much slower in swaths of the South as well as in states like Wyoming and South Dakota. Vermont, which also leads the nation in adult vaccinations and booster shots, has already vaccinated more than a third of newly eligible children. But Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana have only immunized about 3 percent of children in that age group. Mississippi and Alabama have the highest overall covid-19 death rates in the nation. Louisiana comes in fourth, after New Jersey.
Maryland county to revaccinate children after they were administered expired doses --Maryland state health department officials announced that about 70 children in Prince George's County will need to get revaccinated after they were mistakenly administered expired doses of the pediatric Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine.The department said that the children, ages 5 to 11, do not face any negative health risks because of the error. However, the expired doses are less likely to protect them from the coronavirus, according to The Washington Post.In November, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officially recommended the Pfizer vaccine for children ages 5-11. George L. Askew, deputy chief administrative officer for health, human services and education, told the Post the health department reached out to the CDC and Pfizer to determine how to proceed following the incident.They reportedly came to the agreement to hold a special clinic in order to revaccinate all of the children who received the expired doses.“It is nice when everyone is in agreement — and everyone was in agreement that receiving the expired vaccine was not going to be detrimental to the children’s health,” he said, according to the Post. “But everyone was also in agreement that it did not give all the protection and that children should get revaccinated.”The mistake occurred on Nov. 26 at the Wayne K. Curry Sports and Learning Center in Landover. Children were given vaccine doses that had expired two days prior. The private clinics are set to be held for children who were affected on Dec. 5 and Dec. 11, according to the news outlet.“We certainly regret this incident,” Askew reportedly said. “And we are really, really sorry for the inconvenience it causes our families."
First confirmed US case of Omicron coronavirus variant detected in California – CNN The United States' first confirmed case of the Omicron coronavirus variant has been identified in California. In a White House news briefing, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the case was in an individual who traveled from South Africa on November 22 -- before travel restrictions were in place -- and tested positive for Covid-19 on November 29.That individual, Fauci said, is self-quarantining and close contacts have tested negative for the coronavirus so far.The person was fully vaccinated and is experiencing "mild symptoms, which are improving at this point," Fauci said. Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco's director of public health, said the person had not had a booster shot.The California and San Francisco public health departments confirmed the case was caused by the Omicron variant through genomic sequencing conducted at the University of California at San Francisco, and the sequence was confirmed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Color Health said in a statement it returned the positive test result through an San Francisco Covid-19 testing program, and Omicron was identified in under 30 hours "from the time of collection to strain confirmation."
First Confirmed Case of Omicron Variant Detected in the United States | CDC Online Newsroom | CDC -The California and San Francisco Departments of Public Health have confirmed that a recent case of COVID-19 among an individual in California was caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529). The individual was a traveler who returned from South Africa on November 22, 2021. The individual had mild symptoms that are improving, is self-quarantining and has been since testing positive. All close contacts have been contacted and have tested negative.Genomic sequencing was conducted at the University of California, San Francisco and the sequence was confirmed at CDC as being consistent with the Omicron variant. This will be the first confirmed case of COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant detected in the United States.On November 26, 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) classified a new variant, B.1.1.529, as a Variant of Concern and named it Omicron and on November 30, 2021, the United States also classified it as a Variant of Concern. CDC has been actively monitoring and preparing for this variant, and we will continue to work diligently with other U.S. and global public health and industry partners to learn more. Despite the detection of Omicron, Delta remains the predominant strain in the United States.
Omicron COVID-19 variant detected in the United States - The first case of a person infected with the Omicron variant in the United States was identified yesterday. The fully vaccinated individual whose identity is being protected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is a working-age adult who resides in San Francisco. According to the CDC, the infected person returned from South Africa on November 22. Subsequently, they developed mild COVID symptoms prompting testing, which was confirmed positive on November 29. Genetic sequencing was conducted on the sample at the University of California, San Francisco, showing the infection was caused by the Omicron variant. They have remained in self-quarantine since, and all known contacts have thus far tested negative. During the daily White House briefing on the pandemic, Dr. Anthony Fauci, White House medical adviser and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said, “We knew it was just a matter of time before the first case of Omicron would be detected in the United States.” The Biden administration refused to take any serious measures to contain the spread of the disease. Speaking at the White House Wednesday, Biden pledged that there would not be any “shutdowns or lockdowns.” Even for international travel, the new measures to be employed, COVID testing for all travelers 24 hours before boarding regardless of vaccine status, will do little to slow down the spread of the coronavirus. The Wednesday White House press conference was also notable for the near complete omission of the Delta variant's continuous deadly assault on the population. Such developments have become so commonplace they are no longer worth even serious considerations.
Omicron variant infection found in Minnesotan with COVID-19 - The first confirmed omicron variant COVID-19 infection in Minnesota involved a vaccinated man from Hennepin County, state health officials said. A coronavirus infection involving the concerning omicron variant has been identified in a Minnesotan who recently traveled to New York. Genomic sequencing surveillance of samples from infected individuals identified the COVID-19 case, which Minnesota leaders said was inevitable given how quickly the omicron variant spreads. "This news is concerning, but it is not a surprise," Gov. Tim Walz said in a statement. "We know that this virus is highly infectious and moves quickly throughout the world." The confirmed infection involved a vaccinated man from Hennepin County who developed mild symptoms Nov. 22 and sought testing two days later. The man, who has recovered, spoke with state case investigators and confirmed he had traveled to New York City and attended the Anime NYC convention Nov. 19-21. State investigators urged him to isolate from others to prevent the spread of the infection. Minnesota's current COVID-19 wave has been dominated by the fast-spreading delta variant of the coronavirus. The omicron variant was labeled a "variant of concern" last week after it was identified in South Africa, where it spread quickly and showed some potential to evade immunity from vaccination or previous infection. The first U.S. omicron infection was announced Wednesday in a California resident.Minnesota has one of the most aggressive COVID-19 surveillance programs in the country, using a combination of public and private labs to evaluate approximately 20% of all positive specimens for their genomic lineage. Only California and Massachusetts are conducting more genomic sequencing of samples, so state health officials expected that Minnesota would be among the first states to identify an omicron infection.
Colorado finds omicron variant in Arapahoe Co. woman who recently traveled to Africa – The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment announced Thursday it had confirmed the state’s first case of the COVID-19 omicron variant in an Arapahoe County woman who recently traveled to southern Africa.The CDPHE said the woman was fully vaccinated but had not yet received a booster dose. She is experiencing minor symptoms, according to the department. The variant was identified through sequencing Thursday morning, officials said. The Colorado State Public Health Laboratory sequenced the specimen and found the variant was present. Colorado is the third state to identify the omicron variant is present. Other cases were confirmed in California and Minnesota.
Five omicron cases detected in New York -New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced on Thursday that five cases of the COVID-19 omicron variant have been detected in the Empire State.New York is now the fourth state to detect a case of the new variant, following California, Minnesota and Colorado.Hochul revealed during a press conference Thursday that one of the positive cases was identified in Suffolk County and four in New York City, including two in Queens, one in Brooklyn and one from a yet undetermined borough.The infected individual in Suffolk County is a 67-year-old female who recently traveled to South Africa. She was at least partially vaccinated, Hochul said, but it remains unknown if she had completed her initial vaccination series or received a booster shot.The vaccination statuses of the four other cases also remain unknown, Hochul said.The New Yorker from an undetermined borough tested negative for COVID-19 upon returning to the U.S. from South Africa on Nov. 25, but received a positive result on Nov. 30 after taking another test.Her symptoms, which include a headache and cough, are mild, Hochul said. She is also a "suspected traveler case," according to Hochul.Hochul emphasized that the discovery of omicron cases in New York is “not a cause for alarm.” “We knew this variant was coming and we have the tools to stop the spread. Get your vaccine. Get your booster. Wear your mask,”
Hawaii reports its first omicron case - Hawaii reported its first case of the omicron variant on Thursday, saying that the person who tested positive was unvaccinated. The Hawaii Department of Health said a resident from the island of O’ahu had tested positive and was displaying moderate symptoms. The person had already contracted COVID-19 in the past. The person did not have a history of travel, according to the state health department. The department further noted that the variant had been picked up through community spread, meaning that other undetected cases are already in Hawaii. The department said the case had been detected on Monday “with a molecular clue indicating it may be Omicron.” Hawaii confirmed on Thursday that it was the omicron variant after the state's Laboratories Division performed an expedited genome sequencing on the specimen taken from the infected resident. “This isn’t reason for panic, but it is reason for concern. It’s a reminder the pandemic is ongoing. We need to protect ourselves by getting vaccinated, wearing masks, distancing as best we can and avoiding large crowds,” Hawaii Health Director Elizabeth Char said in a statement. The report from Hawaii comes the same day that New York confirmed it had found five cases of the omicron variant in its state, after another confirmed case was reported in Minnesota earlier that day.
Several omicron cases have now been detected in the U.S. : Coronavirus Updates At least nine cases of the omicron variant have now been identified in five states across the U.S.On Thursday, health officials in Colorado, Hawaii, Minnesota and New York all reported new cases of the highly mutated strain of the coronavirus, one day after the first domestic case of the variant was discovered in California.Hawaii became the fifth state in the nation to report a case of the variant, shortly after officials in New York announced that they had identified five confirmed cases in the state.According to Hawaii health officials, the individual is a resident from O'ahu with moderate symptoms. They had previously been infected with COVID-19 and was reported to have been unvaccinated. The individual is currently isolated at home and has not been hospitalized, State Epidemiologist Dr. Sarah Kemble said. The individual did not have any history of traveling.
Omicron coronavirus variant found in at least 10 states -The new omicron coronavirus variant has been found in at least 10 U.S. states a little over a week after the strain was discovered in southern Africa. The variant has been found in Maryland, Utah, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New York, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii and Nebraska. It is likely the new variant is in other states as well, as the U.S. continues to conduct tests. The first case was discovered Wednesday in California, in a person who recently traveled to South Africa. New York has the most omicron cases discovered so far, with five announced on Thursday by Gov. Kathy Hochul (D). Scientists are still working to answer many questions about the new variant, including how transmissible it is and how effective the vaccines are against it. Omicron has caused panic around the world due to the more than 30 different mutations it has compared to previous coronavirus strains. WHO says measures to counter delta variant should work to fight... Pfizer CEO says vaccine data for those under 5 could be available by... Many countries, including the U.S., have put travel bans in place from southern African countries to try to mitigate the spread of Omicron. But omicron has been found in dozens of countries around the world despite travel bans and new flight restrictions put in place. The World Health Organization and some scientists have condemned the travel bans, saying they are harmful and unproductive. President Biden has indicated the U.S. will not go back into lockdowns due to the omicron variant and instead focus on the vaccination campaign.
These are the states where the omicron variant has been identified - The omicron coronavirus variant has been found in 12 U.S. states just three days days after the first case in the country was announced. The new variant, which was first discovered in South Africa, was announced in late November and has already spread to dozens of countries across the world. One day after Thanksgiving, the World Health Organization (WHO) held an emergency meeting on the variant, which it has determined is a "variant of concern." Omicron earned the WHO classification due to its large number of mutations and increased risk of reinfection, according to evidence from the health body's research. Following the news of the omicron variant, world leaders, including President Biden, instated travel bans from southern African countries in an attempt to stop the spread. Scientists are still unsure of how transmissible the variant is, if it renders the coronavirus vaccines ineffective and if it is more deadly than previous strains. But despite those mitigation efforts, 12 states have reported cases of the new strain since Wednesday, some among patients who have not traveled internationally in recent weeks. More cases are likely to be announced in other states soon. Here are the states where the omicron variant has been detected so far. California was the first state to report a case of the omicron variant in the U.S. on Wednesday. Officials said the first omicron case in California came from a fully vaccinated San Francisco resident. The person had mild symptoms after traveling back from South Africa on Nov. 22. All those who had close contact with the individual tested negative for the virus. One woman became the first omicron case for New Jersey and Georgia while she was traveling back to the country from South Africa. The fully vaccinated Georgia resident tested positive on Nov. 28 and is currently in an emergency room in New Jersey recovering from moderate symptoms, New Jersey officials said. Georgia officials said the resident was in Georgia for two days on her trip back from South Africa before going to New Jersey, according to WSB-TV. Maryland announced three omicron cases on Friday from residents in the Baltimore area. Two of the positive cases are among members of the same household. One vaccinated family member recently traveled to South Africa, while the other does not have a recent travel history and is unvaccinated. The third resident is not related to the other patients and has no notable travel history. Minnesota was the second state to confirm the omicron variant in the U.S. on Thursday. The variant was found in a person who had recently traveled from New York City and is vaccinated. The man developed mild symptoms from the variant that have since cleared. However, there are concerns about his infection, as it was revealed that the man had attended the Anime NYC 2021 convention in the days before his symptoms appeared. Tens of thousands of people attended the convention.Nebraska announced six omicron cases on Friday, with the outbreak occurring through household contact. The first case was likely a person who returned from Nigeria on Nov. 23 and began experiencing symptoms on Nov. 24. None of the residents have gone to the hospital, with only one of the six people vaccinated against the virus.
Friends who attended anime convention with man who contracted omicron have tested positive for coronavirus, health official says - The Minnesota man who contracted the omicron variant of the coronavirus met up with about 35 friends at a New York City anime convention and about half have tested positive for the coronavirus, a state health official said Friday. Members of the group traveled to New York from a variety of states for the weekend convention that began Nov. 19 and tested positive after their return, said Kris Ehresmann, director of the Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Prevention, and Control Division at the Minnesota Department of Health. It is not known whether they are infected with omicron or another variant. “We don’t know if we’ll see a lot of omicron, or we’ll see a lot of delta,” Ehresmann said in an interview. “But we’re likely to see a lot of covid” out of the convention, which drew 53,000 people and tightly packed crowds from Nov. 19 to 21.Coronavirus variants like omicron, delta and mu are an expected part of the virus's life cycle, but vaccines can prevent more infectious variants from forming. (John Farrell, Hadley Green/The Washington Post)The development is not sufficient, by itself, to determine where people were infected, who gave the virus to whom, or to develop a timeline of its spread, Ehresmann said. The man infected with omicron also spent time elsewhere in New York City. New York, Minnesota and other states, as well as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, are investigating the case and have begun tracing the Minnesota man’s contacts.
More omicron detected as hospitals strain under delta surge - New York announced three more cases of the omicron variant of the coronavirus Saturday, bringing the number of state cases linked to the new variant to eight. “The omicron variant is here, and as anticipated we are seeing the beginning of community spread,” state Health Commissioner Mary Bassett said in a news release. The number of states finding the variant is growing as well, with Massachusetts, Connecticut and Washington state announcing their first cases Saturday, a day after New Jersey, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Maryland reported their first confirmed cases. Missouri reported its first presumed case Friday.The variant also has been detected in Nebraska, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Colorado and Utah.In New York, seven of the cases have been found in New York City, once a global epicenter of the pandemic, and the other in Suffolk County. The arrival of omicron comes as hospitals statewide continue to strain under a surge in coronavirus cases, most traced to the delta variant, along with staffing shortages. The number of people testing positive statewide each day for the virus has doubled in the last 30 days.New York’s omicron cases so far appear to be unrelated, Hochul said. One of the known cases involved a man from Minnesota who was among 50,000 people who attended a three-day anime festival in New York City in November. Authorities have urged anyone who attended the conference to get tested for COVID-19 and wear a mask in public.Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont on Saturday reported his state’s first confirmed case of the variant, saying it may also be linked to the New York City anime convention. The case involves a vaccinated Hartford-area man in his 60s who has a family member who attended the convention. The family member, who is also vaccinated, developed symptoms that have since resolved, Lamont’s office said. In Washington state, three cases of the omicron variant were confirmed Saturday — one each in Thurston, Pierce and King counties, state health officials said. They noted the investigation is still early, and details were not yet known on the travel histories of the patients, two men and a woman who range from 20 to 39 years old.
Omicron-variant border bans ignore the evidence, say scientists - More than 50 countries have stepped up border controls to slow the spread of Omicron, ahighly mutated SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern that is sweeping through South Africa. But researchers say many of the restrictions — especially those targeting only travellers from a handful of countries — are unlikely to keep Omicron out, and come at significant cost to the countries concerned.Scientists in some of the affected countries also say that travel bans risk slowing down urgent research on Omicron, by limiting the arrival of imported lab supplies.“I’m not that optimistic that the way in which these measures are being rolled out right now will have an impact,” says Karen Grépin, a health economist at the University of Hong Kong, who studies border-control measures.“It’s too late. The variant is circulating globally,” agrees Kelley Lee, who studies global health at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, Canada. Most travel bans target South Africa, which raised the alarm about Omicron on 24 November, and Botswana, which also reported early cases. Many nations are also banning visitors from neighbouring Lesotho, Eswatini, Zimbabwe and Namibia.In South Africa’s most populous province, Gauteng, Omicron accounts for the majority of virus samples sequenced in the past few weeks. The World Health Organization (WHO) has designated Omicron a variant of concern because it has numerous mutations in its spike protein, some of which could make it more infectious or improve its ability to evade antibodies.The extent of travel restrictions varies. The United States is preventing only non-US citizens who have been in selected countries from entering; Australia is also requiring 14 days of quarantine for its own citizens and residents who have visited those countries in the past two weeks.Researchers say border restrictions might deter nations from alerting the world to future variants. They will also slow down urgent research, because few planes carrying cargo — including lab supplies needed for sequencing — are now arriving in South Africa. Researchers are racing to understand how Omicron’s transmissibility and ability to evade immunity created by vaccines differ from those of pre-existing variants of SARS CoV-2. They’re also investigating the relative severity of the illness Omicron causes.“The travel ban will paradoxically affect the speed at which scientists are able to investigate,” says Shabir Madhi, a vaccinologist at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa. Researchers might also struggle to share samples with global collaborators.
Biden administration to ship 11 million vaccine doses abroad - The Biden administration is shipping 9 million COVID-19 vaccine doses to Africa and 2 million to other regions, the White House is announcing Friday. White House COVID-19 response coordinator Jeff Zients will announce plans to ship 11 million doses during a health briefing Friday, according to remarks obtained by The Hill. “Just today, we are shipping 11 million doses. Eleven million doses in one day. That’s more doses shipped by the U.S. in a single day than what all but seven other countries have delivered in total since the start of this pandemic,” Zients will say. “Of the 11 million — 9 million are shipping to Africa — bringing our total doses donated to Africa to 100 million. That’s American leadership. And we are calling on the rest of the world to step up and join us,” he will say. The new shipments are part of an effort by the administration to accelerate vaccine shipments to increase global vaccination rates. President Biden said Thursday that the administration aims to deliver 200 million doses abroad within the next 100 days. Those doses are part of Biden’s pledge to share more than 1 billion doses worldwide, the majority of them through COVAX, the World Health Organization-backed initiative to supply lower income countries with coronavirus vaccines. Health experts have warned that the coronavirus pandemic will not be extinguished until the global population is vaccinated, particularly given the threat of new variants emerging among unvaccinated populations. Africa, where the new omicron variant was first detected, has a continent-wide vaccination rate of under 10 percent.
South Africa, where Omicron was detected, is an outlier on the least vaccinated continent. On the face of it, the emergence of the Omicron variant is the unhappy fulfillment of expert predictions that the failure to prioritize vaccinations for African countries would allow the coronavirus to continue to circulate and mutate there, imperiling the world’s ability to move beyond the pandemic.As Western nations kept most of the global vaccine supply for themselves, African countries were denied access to doses or could not afford them. Around 10 percent of people in Africa have received one dose of a vaccine, compared with 64 percent in North America and 62 percent in Europe.But the problem is changing shape. In recent weeks, vaccines have started to flow into Africa, and the new challenge is how to rapidly scale up vaccinations — as South Africa demonstrates.“We haven’t completely overcome the problem of vaccine supply to lower-income countries,” said Shabir Madhi, a virologist at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. “But where they are available, countries are struggling to scale up.”Scientists in South Africa, which has the most sophisticated genomic sequencing facilities on the continent, were the first to announce the detection of the new variant, after it was found in four people in Botswana.South Africa has a better vaccination rate than most countries on the continent: Just under one-quarter of the population has been fully vaccinated, and the government said it has over five months’ worth of doses in its stores. But they are not being administered fast enough.Vaccinations in South Africa are running at about half the target rate, officials said last week. To prevent vaccines from expiring, the government has even deferred some deliveries scheduled for early next year.In a briefing on Sunday to announce the country’s response to the new variant, President Cyril Ramaphosa said his cabinet was considering making vaccines mandatory for specific locations and activities. Before enforcing the new rules, though, a task team will investigate “a fair and sustainable approach.” In a country where vaccines are free, this was a more desirable approach than imposing additional lockdown restrictions as he said that new virus infections in general more than tripled in a week. Masks remain mandatory in public, and a curfew is in place from midnight to 4 a.m.
Omicron cases are discovered on flights into Amsterdam as scientists race to evaluate the new threat --Dutch health officials said on Sunday that they had found at least 13 cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant among 61 infected passengers who had arrived in the Netherlands from South Africa on Friday. The new cases were a clear sign that the virus was crossing borders even as governments imposed new travel restrictions and flight bans.Additional cases could emerge, as health officials were still examining test samples, said Hugo de Jonge, the country’s health minister, adding that the people who tested positive were isolating. The 61 passengers who had tested positive were among more than 500 who arrived on two separate flights. …A growing list of countries is scrambling to respond to the new, highly mutated version of the virus, which was first detected in Botswana and South Africa and which has sent ripples of panic through governments and markets. Health officials in Australia and Denmark on Sunday both confirmed cases of the Omicron variant in travelers recently arriving from southern Africa. …The World Health Organization warned on Friday that Omicron was a “variant of concern,” the most serious category the agency uses for such tracking, and said that its numerous genetic mutations could help it spread more quickly, even among vaccinated people. Scientists cautioned that relatively little is known about the new variant, and that only a small number of confirmed cases have surfaced globally. Still, there are worries that Omicron could have spread more widely before scientists in South Africa discovered it last week …
The Netherlands finds at least 13 Omicron cases and expects more. At least 13 people who arrived in the Netherlands on two flights from South Africa on Friday were infected with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, and more cases will most likely be found, Dutch health officials said on Sunday.Coen Berends, a spokesman for the Dutch public health institute that tracks the virus, added that the Omicron variant might already have been brought to the country by other recent travelers.“The most important thing is that we know that this variant is in the Netherlands,” Mr. Berends said.On Friday, health officials tested about 600 passengers who arrived at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport on two flights and found 61 to be positive for the coronavirus. Those who tested negative were allowed to quarantine at home or continue their journeys. Those who tested positive were ordered to isolate at home or in designated hotels and will be fined if they violate the measures, Mr. de Jonge said.The Netherlands joined other Western countries in instituting travel rules, limiting travel from southern Africa to European Union citizens only. But in an acknowledgment that the new variant may have arrived in the country earlier, the government has implored recent travelers from southern Africa to get tested.The two flights, from Johannesburg and Cape Town, landed within about a half an hour of one another before noon local time on Friday. Health officials took the passengers to a deserted departure bay to be tested, a process that took several hours as they waited together in close quarters, many of them unmasked, said Stephanie Nolen, a global health reporter for The New York Times who was on one of the flights.In total, the passengers, negative and positive, spent about 30 hours together in the plane and in poorly ventilated rooms. While the infected passengers were told to isolate, those who tested negative were allowed to fly onward and “scattered to the world” despite their exposure, Ms. Nolen said.
Netherlands says omicron variant was within its borders a week before South Africa revealed it existed - — The omicron variant had a foothold in multiple countries in Europe before travel restrictions were imposed, new genetic sequencing data has revealed.Dutch officials said Tuesday that they had detected the variant, with its unusually high number of mutations, in a sample collected on Nov. 19 and another on Nov. 23 — well before Dutch authorities panicked over two flights from South Africa carrying infected passengers.The earliest known cases are still from southern Africa. The first identified samples were collected Nov. 9, from a 34-year-old man and a 23-year-old man in Johannesburg, according to the GISAID global database. On Nov. 11, five samples of the variant were collected in Botswana.Experts caution, though, that omicron could have originated elsewhere. Even countries with world-leading sequencing programs only assess a portion of their cases. Labs in many countries are now combing through samples collected not just in recent days but over the past month.Coronavirus variants like omicron, delta and mu are an expected part of the virus's lifecycle, but vaccines can prevent more infectious strains from developing. (John Farrell, Hadley Green/The Washington Post)As of Tuesday, cases of the variant had been reported in 20 countries, with 13 of those in Europe, the European Union’s public health body said.Hong Kong, Sweden, Israel, Britain, Italy, Canada, Belgium and the Netherlands all traced their first cases to samples collected before South Africa warned the world late Thursday of a potentially more contagious variant, with mutations of the sort that might evade vaccines.The next day, as the World Health Organization assessed that omicron was a “variant of concern,” two planes carrying about 600 passengers from South Africa landed in the Netherlands with 61 people testing positive for the virus, 14 of whom had the omicron variant.
Portugal investigating omicron outbreak among players in soccer club --Health authorities said Monday that Belenenses SAD, a professional Portuguese soccer club, has seen more than a dozen confirmed cases of the omicron coronavirus variant. Officials are investigating if the team could mark one of the first locally transmitted infections of the variant outside of South Africa, where it was first detected, The Associated Press reported. One Belenenses SAD player who tested positive had recently traveled to South Africa. The others who were infected, including players and club staffers, had not, according to the AP. The Lisbon-based team has since identified 13 cases of the variant, and all those who have been in contact with those who tested positive are quarantining. Players from Benfica, a soccer team that competed against Belenenses SAD in a match on Saturday, are also reportedly being tested for the virus. "Since this is a new variant, we have to tighten the controls," Portugal’s health general director, Graça Freita, said in a local radio interview, per the AP. But health officials, the soccer clubs and Portugal’s Primeira Liga all faced criticism about why Saturday's game ever took place. Prior to the match, Belenenses SAD had reduced its team to just nine players because of the outbreak, and after halftime, the game's referee suspended the match because the team had just seven players on the field and had lost another, the AP reported. Freitas reportedly said the clubs chose to go on with the match on their own as health authorities do not make decisions about professional soccer games. Portugal has one of the highest vaccination rates in Europe, with nearly 87 percent of the population fully vaccinated. Authorities there have reimposed certain restrictions such as face masks and proof of vaccination requirements as a result of a recent uptick in infections.
Norway Christmas party may have sparked largest omicron variant outbreak outside of South Africa -A recent Norwegian omicron outbreak at a Christmas party provides early anecdotal evidence on how the variants spreads between vaccinated people and the severity of its symptoms, according to a recent report.A renewable energy company in Norway made sure all necessary safety precautions were implemented before hosting their annual holiday party, including only inviting vaccinated employees and requiring rapid testing the day prior the party, according to Stian Tvede Karlsen, a company spokesman. The party was held at an upscale Oslo restaurant for approximately 120 people, including several who recently traveled to South Africa, where the company has a solar panel business.Over 50% tested positive for COVID-19, with 13 confirmed to have the omicron variant, but none of the people have severe symptoms, according to the Wall Street Journal.The outbreak, which appears to be the world’s biggest omicron outbreak outside of South Africa, is noteworthy because it occurred among vaccinated people in a country where more than 80% adults are fully vaccinated, the Journal added.
China's Xi offering another 1 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses to African nations --Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday pledged an additional 1 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines to African countries as well as an investment of at least $10 billion into the continent over the next three years.Xi made the pledges while speaking at the Eighth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). In his keynote address, Xi commemorated the decades-long diplomatic relationship China has shared with countries on the African continent."Here, let me express sincere appreciation to the many African friends who supported China back then. Let me also make it solemnly clear that China will never forget the profound friendship of African countries and will remain guided by the principle of sincerity, real results, amity and good faith and the principle of pursuing the greater good and shared interests," he said.In his address, Xi presented four proposals aimed at expanding Chinese-African relations: fighting the COVID-19 pandemic with "solidarity," expanding trade and investment, coming together to promote green development and committing to upholding "equity and justice.""To help the [African Union] achieve its goal of vaccinating 60 percent of the African population by 2022, I announce that China will provide another one billion doses of vaccines to Africa," Xi said. "In addition, China will undertake 10 medical and health projects for African countries, and send 1,500 medical personnel and public health experts to Africa."Xi further announced the undertaking of 10 "poverty reduction and agricultural projects for Africa," which will involve China sending 500 agricultural experts to the continent. "China will encourage its businesses to invest no less than 10 billion US dollars in Africa in the next three years, and will establish a platform for China-Africa private investment promotion," said Xi.
Indigenous people in Australia twice as likely to be infected with COVID-19 -A third wave of COVID-19 infections in Australia has seen a 45-fold increase in the spread of the virus among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Even before the arrival of the Omicron variant, they were being infected with the Delta strain at twice the rate of non-indigenous people. By last week, some 7,000 infections had been reported among indigenous people, with 14 recorded deaths, 700 hospitalised and 80 in intensive care units. Most of the deaths were under the age of 60. Until mid-June, only 153 indigenous people had been infected, with no deaths. Just half of indigenous people over the age of 16 are double vaccinated, compared with around 80 percent across the population nationally. The increasing number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in indigenous communities was both predicted and preventable. The warnings of health experts and community leaders were ignored, resulting in the failure to protect these populations from the pandemic. Indigenous people have a high prevalence of chronic health conditions as a result of widespread poverty-level living conditions, which include overcrowded housing, poor access to quality food and limited access to medical care. Prevalent health conditions, such as diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular and depression and other mental health disorders, are also known to increase the risk of hospitalisation or death due to COVID-19. With the spread of the virus from Sydney to rural and remote New South Wales in August, the town of Wilcannia in the state’s west was among the first communities put at risk. Some 152 people were infected—more than 20 percent of the town’s total population and almost 40 percent of the indigenous community. At that time, Wilcannia had the highest transmission rate in the country. The town’s hospital had one ventilator and the nearest intensive care unit was approximately 200 kilometres away in Broken Hill. The life expectancy for an indigenous man and woman in Wilcannia is 37 and 42 years respectively, more than 40 years less than their city and non-indigenous counterparts.
South Korea sets another record for new daily COVID-19 cases - South Korea has set another record for new daily COVID-19 cases and deaths on Saturday.The country recorded 5,352 new cases and 70 deaths a mid a struggle to contain the delta variant, The Associated Press reported. It is the third time this week the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency counted more than 5,000 new coronavirus cases in 24 hours. Seoul and other nearby areas will ban private gatherings of more than seven people starting next week in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus. Along with the delta variant, South Korea has found at least nine cases of the new omicron variant that has sent world leaders scrambling to contain its spread, according to the AP. In response to the omicron variant, South Korea has banned international flights from southern African countries and required all international travelers to quarantine for at least 10 days regardless of their vaccination status. The travel bans have been decried by some scientists and the World Health Organization, but some political leaders maintain they are necessary until more is known about the new strain. Currently, it is unclear how transmissible the new variant is, and if current coronavirus vaccines will be effective against the strain.
Two hippos at Belgian zoo have COVID-19 -- Two hippopotamuses at a zoo in Belgium have tested positive for COVID-19. Antwerp Zoo announced Friday that the country’s national veterinary lab confirmed two hippos contracted the disease and that the zoo would be closed until further notice, The Associated Press reported.The infections appeared in a 14-year-old hippo named Imani and a 41-year-old hippo named Hermien. “To my knowledge, it’s the first recorded contamination among this species. Throughout the world this virus has mostly been seen in great apes and felines,” Antwerp Zoo vet Francis Vercammen said, according to the AP.The zoo said the animals are doing well besides having runny noses, which is what first prompted zoo employees to get them tested. Zoo employees who worked with the hippos have tested negative for the virus and now have to disinfect their shoes, wear masks and put on safety goggles before handling the infected animals, the AP noted
“It’s been three years of hell”: An air flight attendant’s fight to expose Southwest Airlines’ poisoning of its workforce - Tonya Osborne, an air flight attendant for Southwest Airlines, has suffered multiple autoimmune disorders and other health complications after being subjected to toxic chemicals in her work uniform.A flight attendant for over 20 years, Osborne has been left on the brink of poverty after suffering a series of health complications brought on by the uniforms her company has forced her to wear.In 2017, Southwest introduced a new 75-piece uniform. According to a 2016 article in the Chicago Business Journal, “[t]he new look … is in stark contrast to the famously skimpy miniskirts and hot pants in shades of orange and tan worn by Southwest’s female flight attendants in the 1970s.” The article mentions that Cintas has contracted with United for new uniforms and that other “major domestic carriers” were redesigning their outfits. However, shortly afterward flight attendants across the company began reporting severe health complications associated with the uniforms. The situation at Southwest is almost identical to those at several other US-based carriers in recent years, including American, Alaska and Delta. In addition to Cintas, at least two other uniform manufacturers, Land’s End and Twin Hill, have been implicated. In 2019, flight attendants who spoke to the WSWS reported an “awful fishy, chemical smell” in their uniforms. Even after several washes, the chemical-scented clothes produced massive skin irritation and other painful reactions. According to Osborne, the chemical treatment in her clothing was so severe that even brushing up next to a colleague at work would trigger a reaction. Osborne has been diagnosed with several autoimmune disorders, including inflammatory polyathropathy, a form of arthritis; ankylosing spondylitis, affecting the spine, and psoriatic arthritis due to chemicals present in her work uniform. Other colleagues she was in touch with had reported skin rashes, hair loss as well as Hashimoto’s disease, a condition attacking the thyroid gland which can alter the human body’s hormone production and can lead to fatigue and rapid weight gain. In league with her fellow co-workers, Osborne has initiated a class-action lawsuit against the Ohio-based industrial uniform contractor Cintas, which she is encouraging other similarly-affected workers to join. The lawsuit alleges that “Since the introduction of the Uniforms in 2017, Southwest employees … immediately began suffering a myriad of health problems” such as “itchiness, rashes, hives, coughing, trouble breathing, tightness of the chest, hair loss, ear pain, blurry vision, anxiety, and lethargy.” The lawsuit alleges “[o]ther Southwest employees fear reprimand and are hesitant to complain about their Uniforms, instead choosing to suffer in silence.” Up to 20,000 Southwest employees are estimated to be wearing the uniforms.
Extremely hot days linked to higher risk of emergency hospital visits -- It is well known that extreme heat is associated with an increased risk of deaths and hospital admissions among adults aged 65 years and over, but less is known about the adverse health impacts of heat among young and middle aged adults. So researchers set out to measure the association between ambient heat and visits to the emergency department among more than 74 million adults living in 2,939 US counties during the warm season (May to September) from 2010 to 2019. Using medical insurance claims data, they examined associations between heat and rates of emergency department visits for any cause, heat related illness, kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and mental disorders. Then they investigated whether these associations differed by age, sex, low income status, climate zone, and geographic region. Overall, 21,996,670 emergency department visits were recorded during the study period. Days of extreme heat were defined as those in the highest (95th centile) of the local temperature distribution during the warm season. On average across the country, extreme heat was 34.4°C. The results show that days of extreme heat were associated with a 7.8% higher risk of emergency department visits for any cause compared to days in the lowest (1st centile) of the local temperature distribution during the warm season, with no clear threshold. Days of extreme heat were associated with a 66.3% higher relative risk of emergency department visits for heat related illness, equivalent to an absolute risk of 24.3 per 100,000 people at risk per day. Days of extreme heat were also associated with a 30.4% higher relative risk of emergency department visits for kidney disease and a 7.9% higher relative risk for mental disorders. Days of moderate heat (maximum temperature 32.6°C) were also associated with a higher risk of emergency department visits for any cause and for heat related illnesses, kidney disease, and mental disorders. Heat was not associated with a higher risk of emergency department visits for cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. When the researchers examined these associations by geographic region, climate zone, age, sex, and low income status, they were more pronounced in the north east of the US, in counties with a continental climate, and among men, young and middle aged adults, and those receiving financial assistance for prescription drugs.
Study links increasing air pollution to the rise of a type of lung cancer --An international team of scientists, led by Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore), has linked increased air pollution to an uptick in cases of lung adenocarcinoma (LADC) worldwide. The same study also concluded an overall lower consumption of tobacco worldwide is statistically linked to less people contracting lung squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC). Lung adenocarcinoma is a type of cancer for which research strongly suggests that genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors play a part, while lung squamous cell carcinoma is often linked to a history of smoking. This study, done in collaboration between NTU and the Chinese University of Hong Kong, showed that a 0.1 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m3) increment of black carbon, also known as soot, in the Earth's atmosphere, is associated with a 12 percent increase in LADC incidence globally. Black carbon is a pollutant that is classified as under PM2.5, and the research team found that it has increased globally by 3.6 μg/m3yearly from 1990 to 2012. Meanwhile, a one percent decline of smoking prevalence was associated with a nine percent drop in LSCC incidence globally. The number of smokers worldwide decreased by 0.26 percent a year, cumulatively falling by nearly six percent from 1990 to 2012. Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer with an estimated 1.8 million deaths in 2020. Global statistics have highlighted the trends of lung cancers, but understanding what may be causing them has been unclear, until the NTU-led study, which has associated the incidence of the cancers with tobacco consumption and air pollution. "In our study, we were able to determine that the global increase of lung adenocarcinoma is likely associated with air pollution. It had always been unclear, in the past decades, why we are seeing more females and more non-smokers developing lung cancer worldwide. Our study points to the importance of environmental factors in the causation of specific types of lung cancer." The study analyzed data from the World Health Organization from 1990 to 2012 for data on lung cancers, while the dataset for age-standardized smoking prevalence rates from 1980 to 2012 was derived from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research center at the University of Washington. The statistics on pollution were obtained from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Pollutants that were analyzed were black carbon, sulfate, and PM2.5. The results of the study were published in the peer-reviewed academic journal Atmospheric Environment in November. .
Two Memphis companies flagged in ProPublica study of environmental risks -- A new data-driven project from ProPublica has modeled years of air emissions data from the Environmental Protection Agency in order to identify hotspots in all 50 states that contain a higher risk level of cancer among residents. Two of those hotspots can be found in the Memphis area, in industrial areas that edge up to residential communities that, according to census data, are comprised mostly of Black residents. SFI of Tennessee, a steel plate fabrication company, and Stella Jones Corporation, a company that produces pressure-treated wood products, were flagged by the ProPublica investigation as two facilities identified as primary contributors to elevated cancer risks in their respective areas. To produce the map of areas of elevated environmental risk, ProPublica analyzed billions of rows of EPA data, using that data to produce a visualization of cancer-causing industrial air.According to ProPublica's analysis, SFI Tennessee emits cobalt, nickel, and chromium, though it's unclear which type of chromium is discharged into the air. Not all forms of chromium are toxic to humans.The EPA data, according to ProPublica, shows an estimated excess lifetime cancer risk in the area surrounding SFI of 1 in 420, or 21 times the level of risk deemed acceptable by the EPA. The area around Stella Jones, located in the Port of Memphis, carries an elevated risk of 1 in 2,400, or four times the acceptable level of risk.Both areas are zoned for industrial businesses, and neither SFI or Stella Jones are the sole business with potentially hazardous emissions. But both have been estimated to contribute to 99% or higher of the environmental risk over the last five years, ProPublica's analysis found.
Diesel trucks are driving environmental injustice in parts of the US --Low-income people of color in the U.S. are exposed to 28 percent more nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the air they breathe compared to their wealthier white counterparts,a new study using satellite measurements reports. The researchers find this is largely caused by the distribution of diesel truck routes, long implicated as a source of environmental inequality."There's a whole racist history of freeway placement in that freeways didn't end up where they ended up by accident," Sally Pusede, an assistant professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia and senior author of the study, told EHN.NO2 is a harmful pollutant that can cause cardiovascular disease, asthma and other respiratory ailments. Even slight increases in people's exposure can lead to aheightened risk of premature death.This study builds upon previous work led by Pusede and Angelique Demetillo, a Ph.D. candidate in Pusede's lab. In their paper published last year, the two tested whether the space-based instrument, TROPOMI, could capture how NO2 levels varied between Houston neighborhoods. “The current measuring techniques in place, like the ground-based monitoring network, are too sparse within cities," Demetillo, the first author of both studies, told EHN. "The appeal of the satellite data was that … we could capture all of the communities within the city." Through this method, they successfully determined that Houstonians marginalized by both race and income experienced the worst air quality, seeing 37 percent higher NO2 pollution, on average, than white residents living above the poverty line.
Delhi's choked roads worsen India's toxic smog crisis --After decades commuting on New Delhi's parlous roads, office worker Ashok Kumar spends more time than ever stuck in the gridlock that packs the Indian capital's thoroughfares and pollutes the city. The sprawling megacity of 20 million people is regularly ranked the world's most polluted capital, with traffic exhaust a main driver of the toxic smog that permeates the skies, especially in winter. Delhi's patchwork public transport network struggles to cater for a booming population, with long queues snaking outside the city's underground metro stations each evening and overloaded buses inching their way down clogged arterials. "When I came to Delhi, the air was clean because there were hardly any cars or bikes on the roads," Kumar told AFP while waiting for a ride home outside the city's main bus terminal. "But now everyone owns a vehicle." Kumar spends nearly four hours each day in a "gruelling journey" to and from his home on Delhi's far southern outskirts, alternating between commuter buses, private shared taxis and rickshaws. Even at the age of 61, Kumar is hoping to save enough money to buy his own scooter and spare himself the pain of the daily commute. "Not many people can afford to waste their time on public transport," he said. Private vehicle registrations have tripled in the last 15 years—there are now more than 13 million on the capital's roads, government figures show. The consequences are felt year-round, with Delhi road users spending 1.5 hours more in traffic than other major Asian cities, according to the Boston Consulting Group. But come winter the daily inconvenience escalates into a full-blown public health crisis, as prevailing winds slow and the thick blanket of haze settles over the city sees a surge in hospital admissions from residents struggling to breathe. Vehicle emissions accounted for more than half of the city air's concentration of PM2.5—the smallest airborne particles most hazardous to human health—at the start of November, Delhi's Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) said.
Farm Fires Make Pollution Worse in Delhi and Lahore - Why does the air quality in New Delhi and Lahore ranks among the world's worst at this time of the year? The answer to this oft-repeated question can be found in the satellite maps constantly updated by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Here's how NASA Earth Observatory explains it: "The haze visible in this image likely results from a combination of agricultural fires, urban and industrial pollution, and a regional temperature inversion. Most of the time, air higher in the atmosphere is cooler than air near the planet’s surface, and this configuration allows warm air to rise from the ground and disperse pollutants. In the wintertime, however, cold air frequently settles over northern India, trapping warmer air underneath. The temperature inversion traps pollutants along with warm air at the surface, contributing to the buildup of haze."The latest image downloaded from NASA's Fire Information for Resource Information System (FIRMS) show farm fires burning in both India and Pakistan. These fires are particularly intense in Indian and Pakistani provinces of the Punjab. These fires contribute significantly to the high level of particulates in Delhi and Lahore. South Asia is particularly susceptible to pollutants that hang in the air for extended periods of time. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellite images show dull gray haze hovering over northern India and Pakistan, and parts of Bangladesh. It is believed that emissions from solid fuel burning, industrial pollutants and farm clearing fires get trapped along the southern edge of the Himalayas. NASA Earth Observatory explains this phenomenon as follows: "The haze visible in this image likely results from a combination of agricultural fires, urban and industrial pollution, and a regional temperature inversion. Most of the time, air higher in the atmosphere is cooler than air near the planet’s surface, and this configuration allows warm air to rise from the ground and disperse pollutants. In the wintertime, however, cold air frequently settles over northern India, trapping warmer air underneath. The temperature inversion traps pollutants along with warm air at the surface, contributing to the buildup of haze."
Greens sue to block expanded hunting on wildlife refuges - Environmentalists today sued the Fish and Wildlife Service over the expansion of hunting and fishing opportunities in national wildlife refuges.Citing potential harms to vulnerable species, the Center for Biological Diversity challenged the Trump administration’s decision last year to expand hunting and fishing on 2.3 million acres across 147 wildlife refuges and national fish hatcheries.“We’re going to court to ensure that our nation’s wildlife refuges actually provide refuge to endangered wildlife,” said Camila Cossío, a staff attorney at the center. “The Fish and Wildlife Service is shrugging off the many risks that sport hunting and fishing pose to endangered animals, particularly from lead ammunition and tackle.”The suit was filed in federal court in Montana.The lawsuit notes, in particular, the threat posed by the use of lead ammunition or lead tackle. Lead can poison endangered animals like whooping cranes if they eat casings or tackle left behind in waterways. The center specifically cites the risk of lead poisoning to jaguars at the Leslie Canyon National Wildlife Refuge in Arizona, and to ocelots and jaguarundi at the Laguna Atascosa National Wildlife Refuge in Texas.The suit also contends that grizzly bears now face an increased risk from hunters targeting black bears in Montana’s Swan River National Wildlife Refuge.Expansion of fishing and hunting opportunities has been a bipartisan affair, with both the Trump and Biden administrations touting their efforts to provide more access to refuges.Last year, then-Interior Secretary David Bernhardt announced the opening or expansion of 859 hunting and fishing opportunities at 147 refuges and fish hatcheries, saying the agency is taking “significant actions to further conservation initiatives and support sportsmen and women who are America’s true conservationists."The annual refuge-specific hunting rules followed a monthslong review-and-comment period that revealed bitter divisions over hunting policies on public lands (Greenwire, April 13, 2020).The new 2020 rules opened for the first time eight previously closed national wildlife refuges to hunting and sport fishing.The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge and Conservation Area in Florida, for instance, will now permit migratory bird hunting, upland game hunting, big game hunting and sport fishing.In addition, FWS opened or expanded new hunting and sport fishing at 89 other refuges.
Healthcare Triage Podcast: Studying Pesticides and Other Risks to Expecting Moms & Babies-David Haas, MD, returns to the Healthcare Triage podcast to share his research about expecting moms and their babies, including a new study about how pesticides and herbicides can impact their health called, “The Heartland Study.” He also talks about how the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has affected his research, and how his team has adapted to be more flexible because of it.
Scientists say xenobots, world's first living robots, can reproduce -Scientists who created xenobots, the world's first living robots, say the life forms are "the first-ever, self-replicating living robots."The tiny organisms were originally unveiled in 2020. The robots were assembled from heart and skin stem cells belonging to the African clawed frog. They can move independently for about a week before running out of energy, are self-healing and break down naturally.The scientists from the University of Vermont, Tufts University and Harvard University's Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering published research on Monday saying they discovered a new type of biological reproduction different from any other known plant or animal species, according to a press release published by the Wyss Institute. "People have thought for quite a long time that we’ve worked out all the ways that life can reproduce or replicate. But this is something that’s never been observed before," said Douglas Blackiston, Ph.D., a senior scientist at Tufts University and the Wyss Institute who worked on the study.
Greens sue to block expanded hunting on wildlife refuges - Environmentalists today sued the Fish and Wildlife Service over the expansion of hunting and fishing opportunities in national wildlife refuges.Citing potential harms to vulnerable species, the Center for Biological Diversity challenged the Trump administration’s decision last year to expand hunting and fishing on 2.3 million acres across 147 wildlife refuges and national fish hatcheries.“We’re going to court to ensure that our nation’s wildlife refuges actually provide refuge to endangered wildlife,” said Camila Cossío, a staff attorney at the center. “The Fish and Wildlife Service is shrugging off the many risks that sport hunting and fishing pose to endangered animals, particularly from lead ammunition and tackle.”The suit was filed in federal court in Montana.The lawsuit notes, in particular, the threat posed by the use of lead ammunition or lead tackle. Lead can poison endangered animals like whooping cranes if they eat casings or tackle left behind in waterways. The center specifically cites the risk of lead poisoning to jaguars at the Leslie Canyon National Wildlife Refuge in Arizona, and to ocelots and jaguarundi at the Laguna Atascosa National Wildlife Refuge in Texas.The suit also contends that grizzly bears now face an increased risk from hunters targeting black bears in Montana’s Swan River National Wildlife Refuge.Expansion of fishing and hunting opportunities has been a bipartisan affair, with both the Trump and Biden administrations touting their efforts to provide more access to refuges.Last year, then-Interior Secretary David Bernhardt announced the opening or expansion of 859 hunting and fishing opportunities at 147 refuges and fish hatcheries, saying the agency is taking “significant actions to further conservation initiatives and support sportsmen and women who are America’s true conservationists."The annual refuge-specific hunting rules followed a monthslong review-and-comment period that revealed bitter divisions over hunting policies on public lands (Greenwire, April 13, 2020).The new 2020 rules opened for the first time eight previously closed national wildlife refuges to hunting and sport fishing.The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge and Conservation Area in Florida, for instance, will now permit migratory bird hunting, upland game hunting, big game hunting and sport fishing.In addition, FWS opened or expanded new hunting and sport fishing at 89 other refuges.
Great Pacific Garbage Patch Becomes an Ocean Habitat for Coastal Species -The North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, or the “Great Pacific Garbage Patch,” stretches for more than 610,000 square miles between California and Hawai’i. The gyre hosts around 79,000 metric tons of microplastics, nets, buoys and bottles. And, in a surprising turn, coastal life. Scientists writing in Nature Communications Thursday have found coastal animals like anemones, hydroids and shrimp-like amphipods living on plastic collected from the open ocean. “Floating plastic debris from pollution now supports a novel sea surface community composed of coastal and oceanic species at sea that might portend significant ecological shifts in the marine environment,” the study authors wrote.Coastal species hitching rides across the open ocean is nothing new. This is, after all, how many plants and animals reach islands in the first place. However, in the past these animals could only travel on biodegradable rafts made from natural materials like trees and seaweed. That meant that coastal species could move from land mass to land mass, but not find a permanent home on the waves.Coastal podded hydroid Aglaophenia pluma, open-ocean Planes crab and open-ocean Lepas gooseneck barnacles colonizing a piece of floating debris. That changed with the emergence of plastic pollution. There are currently 150 million metric tons of ocean plastic, and eight million metric more tons join them every year. The understanding of how this might provide new habitats for life emerged following the 2011 tsunami in Japan, which dumped about five million tons of debris into the ocean. Researchers discovered coastal species thriving on that debris when it washed up on the North American Pacific coast and the Hawaiian Islands. These species didn’t just survive for years while travelling more than 6,000 kilometers (approximately 3,728 miles), they also grew and reproduced in transit.“This discovery demonstrated that anthropogenic debris, which was largely composed of floating plastics, provided long-lived, habitable rafts and exceeded our expectations of coastal species survival at sea,” the study authors wrote.The permanent presence of coastal species in the open ocean is a big deal. “The open ocean has not been habitable for coastal organisms until now,”
U.S. Is World’s Biggest Producer of Plastic Waste, Report Finds - The United States is the world’s leader in the generation of plastic waste, nearly all from fossil fuels, and must develop a plan to curb its destructive impacts on the health of oceans and marine wildlife, concludes a new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.The first recommendation of the committee of academic experts who wrote the report is that the U.S. stop producing so much plastic, especially non-reusable materials or plastics that are not “practically recyclable,” Inside Climate News reported. The report also proposed a national cap on the production of virgin plastics.“The developing plastic waste crisis has been building for decades,” the study said, as reported by The Washington Post. “The success of the 20th century miracle invention of plastics has also produced a global scale deluge of plastic waste seemingly everywhere we look.”“[T]he committee was able to conclude that while only 4.3 percent of the world’s population lives in the United States, the nation was the top generator of plastic waste, producing 42 million metric tons in 2016, with per person plastic waste generation at 287 pounds,” reported James Bruggers of Inside Climate News.“The fundamental problem here is that plastics are accumulating in the natural environment, including in the ocean,” said Margaret Spring, Monterey Bay Aquarium’s chief conservation officer and chair of the report committee, said in a telephone interview, Inside Climate News reported. Plastics are “pervasive and persistent environmental contaminants,” Spring said, and the problem is “going to continue unless we change — we have to change. And that’s just the truth.”“A lot of U.S. focus to date has been on the cleaning it up part. There needs to be more attention to thecreation of plastic,” Spring said, as reported by The Washington Post.“We suggest that one way to reduce plastic waste would be to make less plastic,” oceanographer and report co-author Kara Lavender Law said, as reported by The Associated Press. “Recycling cannot manage the vast majority of the plastic waste that we generate.”
Study outlines challenges to ongoing clean-up of burnt and unburnt nurdles along Sri Lanka's coastline -- When a fire broke out on the deck of the M/V XPress Pearl cargo ship on May 20, 2021, an estimated 70-75 billion pellets of preproduction plastic material, known as nurdles, spilled into the ocean and along the Sri Lankan coastline. That spill of about 1,500 tons of nurdles, many of which were burnt by the fire, has threatened marine life and poses a complex cleanup challenge. A new peer-reviewed study characterizes how the fire modified the physical and chemical properties of the nurdles and proposes that these properties affected their distribution along the coast. The study, published today in the journal ACS Environmental Au, also provides guidance for the continuing cleanup and monitoring effort and for any potential future nurdle spills, whether in Sri Lanka or elsewhere. Among the recommendations are educating and empowering citizen scientists to continue safely reporting nurdle sightings to inform clean-up efforts; accounting for the ship's onboard cargo to better gauge future threats from the wreck; continuing the urgency for cleanups while also revising response efforts to account for any variability of spilled nurdles; and encouraging locally led research efforts on nurdle samples. "One key impact of this paper is providing actionable and relevant data and recommendations during an ongoing response," said co-author Chris Reddy, senior scientist in the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution's (WHOI) Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry Department. Reddy added that because the properties of the unburnt and burnt nurdles are different, the spill almost amounts to two separate spills that potentially call for different clean-up strategies. "Exposure to combustion, heat, and chemicals led to agglomeration, fragmentation, charring, and chemical modification of the plastic creating an unprecedented, complex spill of visually burnt and unburnt nurdles," according to the study, "The burnt nurdles span a continuum of colors, shapes, sizes, and densities with high variability that could impact clean-up efforts, alter transport in the ocean, and potentially affect wildlife." The study notes that the fire increased the chemical complexity of the plastics up to three-fold, and that burnt nurdles could "camouflage among natural materials" and could break into even smaller pieces because of their brittleness. The key messages of the study include the fact that some of the burnt nurdles don't even look like plastic anymore, and that this should be considered during the clean-up, said co-author Anna Michel, associate scientist in WHOI's Department of Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering. Michel said that she and other WHOI scientists interested in microplastics science quickly utilized multiple labs–including her own lab, which has been developing instrumentation to study microplastics in the ocean and in freshwater–and worked across disciplines to eke out data about the nurdles.
Feds Ask Ships off NYC Coast to Slow Down to Protect Rare Whales -The U.S. government has enacted a voluntary protected zone off the coast of New York City in order to protect critically endangered North Atlantic right whales as they make their way south for the winter.The protected zone is designed to slow down ships, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is encouraging ships to avoid the area altogether.The North Atlantic right whale is incredibly rare, with scientists estimating the population to be fewer than 350. The species has been included in the Endangered Species Act since 1973, and it is currently considered critically endangered. These whales tend to live 70 to 100 years, but human actions are leading to higher mortality rates for the species. Right whales are having offspring at half the rate they once did, and boat collisions and entanglement in fishing gear are leading causes of death for the animals. Climate change and ocean noise, such as sounds from boats and construction, are also detrimental to the species. According to a species assessment: “Right whales are often found in shallow, coastal waters that are heavily traveled by vessel traffic. Throughout their range, they tend to frequent areas in the vicinity of major shipping routes (outside of New York Harbor, Massachusetts Bay, the Bay of Fundy) ... The vast majority (75%) of these collisions have occurred since 1991, where they represent 50% of the total known mortality of right whales over this time period.” As such, lifespans for North Atlantic right whales now hover around 45 to 65 years. The high mortality rates, which have been ongoing since 2017, are deemed an Unusual Mortality Event by NOAA.
African Marine Rules Favour Big Industry, Leaving Small-Scale Fishers in the Lurch --The African marine fisheries sector is comprised of two main players. One is the continent’s artisanal or small-scale fishers, a form of fishing conducted on small fishing boats by coastal communities. The other is industrial fisheries, including trawlers and distant water fishing fleets. These vessels are sometimes owned by African nationals but mostly overseen by international fishing companies or as part of a joint venture. Fishing by non-African fleets is done through access agreements or licences issued by African states.Perhaps surprisingly to some, the small-scale fisheries make a greater contribution to the continent’s economy than their industrial counterparts. They’re also vital to the livelihoods and diets of millions of people. In Africa, the fisheries and aquaculture sector employs about 12.3 million people. Half of these are fishers, the rest work in fish processing and marketing, or fish farming. Their catch feeds millions.But distant water fleets are over-exploiting fish stocks through overfishing and illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. This is because there’s limited domestic or regional capacity to monitor the activities of these trawlers and enforce existing laws. It’s hard to provide exact data, because the actions of some of these fleets are unsanctioned, but it’s estimated that in West Africa, illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing is the equivalent of40% to 65% of legally reported catch.Some African states are trying to address the problems of unsustainable fishing through the introduction of new policies and management practices. In a recent paper, we reviewed four case studies of such measures, from Ghana, Liberia, Madagascar and Somalia.Our findings demonstrate two things. First, fisheries governance measures in Africa are largely constraining small-scale fishers, while failing to contain the industrial fisheries sector.Second, despite a higher incidence of illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing in industrial fisheries than in small-scale fisheries, efforts to develop and regulate fisheries continue to advance the industrial sector. African states have continued to enter new agreements and issue new licences to distant water fleets. They also fail to institute stringent measures to curb their illegal activities.We argue that the small-scale fishing sector is better adapted to meet the continent’s nutritional and socio-economic needs. States must therefore redirect efforts to govern fisheries towards regulating the industrial sector. They must also ensure small-scale fishers have priority access to nearshore fishing grounds and fish stocks.
Lake Michigan's November surface temperature—hovering around 50 degrees—'really warm for this time of year' --Weeks before the official start of the winter season, Great Lakes surface temperatures are still trending above average, following summer and fall evenings that didn't cool down—a feature of climate change in Illinois. "What was kind of jarring was the consistency of the warmer-than-normal conditions," said state climatologist Trent Ford. "And the lack of cool nights." Above-average temperatures warmed the Great Lakes basin through summer. Minnesota and Wisconsin recorded their third-hottest June on record; parts of New York, including Syracuse, experienced one of their hottest summers on record. Lake Huron warmed to nearly 74 degrees in late August—another record-breaker. Illinois saw an extended period of high minimum temperatures across the state in summer and fall. The average minimum temperature for July through October was the second highest on record statewide, below only 2016, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records going back to 1895. The October average minimum temperature is the highest on record for the state—about 8 degrees higher than the average. That lack of cooling extended to neighboring states, which also saw high minimum temperatures in October, including Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. From June to October, Michigan and Ohio also saw their highest average minimum temperature on record for that period. "Getting a record number of 60-degree-or-higher nights in October is not like getting a record number of 100-degree days in July," Ford said. "But certainly there are impacts from that, even though they may be a bit more subtle." A hard freeze didn't chill much of the state until the last week of October, Ford said. Allergy season might have felt longer than usual. Ticks and mosquitoes had longer to bite. Some areas saw a delay in leaf color. Ford noticed it in his own backyard; he was picking tomatoes close to Halloween. Increasing minimum temperatures are a sign of the warmer and wetter conditions expected for Illinois, as human actions—the burning of fossil fuels and resulting emissions—continue to fuel rapid climate shifts.
'Single largest investment in water infrastructure' in history pours into US states -The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) made a series of announcements this week, awarding states money to update aging water pipes, a signature part of President Biden’s infrastructure plan.The Biden administration announced that the EPA will distribute $7.4 billion to states, tribes and territories that’s intended to be spent on water infrastructure grants and loan forgiveness. The money is for next year and is part of a broader $50 billion investment by the federal government in water infrastructure that will be portioned out over the next five years.In an interview with NBC News, EPA administrator Michael Regan said, "This law's investment in water is nothing short of transformational. We're less than three weeks post the president signing this, and we're hitting the ground running."Within the infrastructure plan’s water funds, $2.9 billion is specifically set aside to replace lead pipes around the country, a promise that Biden has reiterated throughout his presidency. There’s also $866 million earmarked for eliminating “forever chemicals,” known as per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAs). PFAs are considered long-lasting chemicals that break down very slowly over time and are prevalent in the U.S. water supply. When turning on an average faucet in the US, Environmental Working Group considers PFAs like, “pouring a cocktail of chemicals.”In a letter sent to governors across the country, Regan encouraged states to maximize the impact of water funding from the law to address disproportionate environmental burdens in historically underserved communities across the country.Michigan is a strong example of this, with predominantly minority communities in Flint, Mich. experiencing record high levels of lead contamination in their water supply for years. According to The Washington Post, between 18,000 to 20,000 children and adolescents lived in Flint during the water crisis and only after a court order did the city begin to replace it’s lead pipes.However, the Biden administration cannot dictate exactly how states spend the infrastructure dollars, but they can try to sway states to address certain projects by handing out grants tied to specific issues. John Rumpler, senior attorney with Environment America, told the Associated Press about Biden’s push to address water infrastructure, “It’s going to take a concerted effort by local officials and community activists and state agencies to ensure that this money is used as effectively as possible,” he said.
EPA to dole out billions for water system upgrades - - States will soon have access to billions of dollars from the newly passed infrastructure package to begin upgrading drinking water and wastewater systems and tackle everything from lead contamination to “forever chemicals.”EPA Administrator Michael Regan in a letter to governors across the nation today said the agency would make available $44 billion in water funding over the next five years through state revolving funds.The first tranche of funding will land next year in the amount of $7.4 billion, which will be allocated to states, tribes and territories, Regan said. Almost half of the funding will be in the form of grants or fully forgivable loans, according to EPA.Regan also encouraged states to prioritize spending in underserved communities burdened with failing systems and pollution that haven’t received their fair share of federal water infrastructure funding.“For more than 30 years, the [state revolving funds] have been the foundation of water infrastructure investments, providing low-cost financing for local projects across America,” EPA wrote in a release. “However, many vulnerable communities facing water challenges have not received their fair share of federal water infrastructure funding. Under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, states have a unique opportunity to correct this disparity.”As the next step in the process, Regan said EPA Assistant Administrator Radhika Fox would soon issue national guidance to state primacy agencies on the use of water infrastructure funding.Regan in his letter encouraged states to direct funds from the infrastructure bill, which President Biden signed into law last month, to remove as many lead service lines as possible and accelerate inventories of lead pipelines. Although the bill included $15 billion for removing lead service lines, industry sources say it could cost far beyond $45 billion. Adding to that shortfall is an ongoing gap in data about where lead service lines are located. The EPA administrator in his letter laid out how the funds would be doled out largely based on population, with states like California and Texas receiving hundreds of millions of dollars. He also called on governors to use $10 million in the bill to quickly address “forever chemicals,” half of which will be distributed through the state revolving funds.
Eight worst wildfire weather years on record happened in the last decade: study - The world's eight most extreme wildfire weather years have occurred in the last decade, according to a new study that suggests extreme fire weather is being driven by a decrease in atmospheric humidity coupled with rising temperatures. "Extreme conditions drive the world's fire activity," said former U of A wildfire expert Michael Flannigan, who conducted the research with study lead Piyush Jain, research scientist with Natural Resources Canada, and Sean Coogan, postdoctoral fellow Faculty of Agricultural, Life & Environmental Sciences. "For example, in Canada, just three percent of fires are responsible for 97 percent of the area burned." For the study, the team examined extreme fire weather trends from 1979 to 2020 using common fire weather indexes that provide estimates for fire intensity and rate of fire spread, as well as changes in vapor pressure, or humidity. The results link trends in rising global temperatures and decreases in humidity to the likelihood that naturally occurring extreme fire events will happen more often, spread to new areas and burn more intensely than ever before in recorded history. Decreasing relative humidity was a driver of more than three-quarters of significant increases in intensity and fire spread, and increasing temperature was a driver for 40 percent of significant trends. The study also found significant increases in extreme weather that can cause major fires in close to half of the Earth's burnable land mass—including in Northern Canada and British Columbia. Flannigan said regions around the world have almost universally witnessed an increase in extreme weather in the past 40 years, with marked increases in the last two decades. "It's not a big surprise, but with climate change, we expect warmer conditions to continue and this trend to continue, expand and get worse."
Hawaii under blizzard warning as 12 inches of snow and winds up to 100 mph expected - The National Weather Service has issued a blizzard warning until Sunday morning on the Big Island of Hawaii. The warning remains in effect from 6 p.m. Friday until 6 a.m. Sunday as up to 12 inches or more of snow is expected on the island. NWS also warns residents to stay indoors as forecasters predict winds gusting over 100 mph."Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods of zero visibility," NWS's weather warning reads. Aside from the blizzard warning, a Kona low is expected near the islands starting on Saturday night. Kona storms are a type of seasonal cyclone in the Hawaiian Islands, usually formed in the winter from winds coming from the westerly "Kona" direction, according to N. Kona lows often bring about wet and "unsettled" weather.
Seattle area breaks rainfall record ahead of another atmospheric river -The National Weather Service (NWS) has confirmed that this past fall has been the wettest the Seattle area has experienced on record, as the region continues to deal with heavy rains and flooding conditions.The NWS office in Seattle wrote on Twitter that the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport recorded 18.91 inches of rain between the months of September and November, making it the wettest that this period of time has been in the Seattle area since that information was first recorded in 1945.“It’s the wettest early fall we’ve had in Seattle in a long, long time,” NWS meteorologist Kirby Cook said on Monday, according to The Seattle Times. “And in some areas, like Bellingham, it will be the wettest November on record.”Cook said that many rivers in the region are expected to stay in flood stages until the end of Monday. The Times noted that another "atmospheric river" is expected on Tuesday, meaning heavy rains are likely to come.The upcoming deluge comes as the Northwest region has had to contend with a torrential atmospheric river of rain. Some local municipalities in the area have issued voluntary evacuation advisories for residents, warning that rivers are at risk of flooding.These conditions come just months after the area dealt with an extreme heat wave. Earlier this year, the Pacific Northwest suffered through a record-breaking heat during which temperatures rose to more than 110 degrees Fahrenheit. Hundreds of deaths were linked to the extreme temperatures in the region, which is not accustomed to high heat.
Atmospheric Rivers Continue to Flood Pacific Northwest --Two atmospheric rivers dumped even more rain on Washington and British Columbia over the (American) Thanksgiving weekend, and another is expected to pummel the already-widely-flooded region today. Some areas have been deluged by more than 2 feet of rain in the last 30 days. Less than two weeks ago as many as 18,000 people were cut off by flooding in southern British Columbia. Climate change is worsening extreme precipitation events and flooding. The warming, caused mainly by extracting and burning fossil fuels, also supercharges wildfires, which further exacerbates the flooding by denuding mountainsides of erosion protection.As reported by CNN: Environment Canada has issued its first "red alert" for British Columbia ahead of what officials are characterizing as a dangerous weather system expected to push more atmospheric rivers into the province."The red level is something new that we have not issued," Armel Castellan, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, told CNN Canadian affiliate CTV.---Castellan noted the storms are coming back-to-back-to-back with very little time in between."So, imagine that we've had an extraordinarily wet fall, the soil is, the landscape is completely saturated. Any extra moisture runs down much more easily and quicker," he said."We also have had snow," he said. "So, in those middle elevations, there is snow to melt, and that is precisely what these next couple of storms are going to do. We are going to be adding snow melt to the rainwater and creating a lot of runoff." For a deeper dive: Axios, The Washington Post, AP, NPR, CNN, The New York Times; Climate Signals background: Extreme precipitation events, Flooding
Another atmospheric river hits flood-stricken British Columbia, Canada -The third atmospheric river in the past 7 days is affecting British Columbia, Canada since early Tuesday morning (LT), November 30, 2021, bringing heavy rain and mountain snow. Significant precipitation continues to overspread coastal and southern portions of British Columbia, as the last in a series of atmospheric rivers affects the region, The Weather Network (TWN) reports.1 A slew of rainfall warnings, snowfall warnings, and special weather statements are in effect as the moisture washes over the province. The precipitation could lead to additional flooding, mudslides, and avalanches, potentially exacerbating an already precarious situation, TWN warns. Widespread rainfall totals of 40 to 120 mm (1.6 to 4.7 inches) are expected by the end of the storm. The highest totals are likely on western Vancouver Island and at higher elevations, where 100 - 200+ mm (3.9 - 7.9 inches) of rain is possible. Storm totals of 40 - 70 mm (1.6 - 2.7 inches) are possible around Metro Vancouver. The third atmospheric river in the past 7 days is affecting British Columbia, Canada since early Tuesday morning (LT), November 30, 2021, bringing heavy rain and mountain snow. Significant precipitation continues to overspread coastal and southern portions of British Columbia, as the last in a series of atmospheric rivers affects the region, The Weather Network (TWN) reports.1 A slew of rainfall warnings, snowfall warnings, and special weather statements are in effect as the moisture washes over the province. The precipitation could lead to additional flooding, mudslides, and avalanches, potentially exacerbating an already precarious situation, TWN warns. Widespread rainfall totals of 40 to 120 mm (1.6 to 4.7 inches) are expected by the end of the storm. The highest totals are likely on western Vancouver Island and at higher elevations, where 100 - 200+ mm (3.9 - 7.9 inches) of rain is possible. Storm totals of 40 - 70 mm (1.6 - 2.7 inches) are possible around Metro Vancouver. Environment Canada and Climate Change has issued special weather statements and rainfall warnings for the North, Central and South coasts, as well as the Lower Mainland.1 Snowfall warnings are in effect for Fort Nelson and the Yellowhead, while winter storm warnings are in effect for inland sections of the North Coast, including Stewart. Runoff from snowmelt and a risk for avalanches will become a concern through Wednesday, December 1 as freezing levels quickly rise. Continued snowmelt will further swell B.C.’s rivers, exacerbating the risk for flooding at lower elevations.Evacuation orders remain in effect for properties near waterways in the Fraser Valley and in the Thompson-Nicola Regional District.2
Pacific Northwest's Nightmare November Rain Totals in 1 Map - The calendar can’t turn to December fast enough for the Pacific Northwest—but even that offers little promise of respite. Residents there have been blitzed by a series of November storms that have driven widespread flooding and destruction . Warm conditions have boosted snow levels to 10,000 feet (3,050 meters), meaning rain will fall at high elevations and melt out what little snowpack there is, sending more water rushing into rivers and racing over already soggy soil.The reason those soils are so waterlogged is because of the absolutely stunning rainfall totals seen over the course of this month. The National Weather Service’s Seattle office tweeted a graphic on Tuesday that made me do a double-take. It shows that a large swath of the Cascades and Olympics, the two main mountain ranges in Washington, have seen 50 inches (127 centimeters) or more of rain in November. As the office helpfully notes, that’s 13 years of annual rainfall for Las Vegas. The Northwest is generally known as a damp place in the winter when the jet stream sends storms streaking over the region. The Cascades and Olympics both act as major rain catchers, wringing that moisture out as snow on the high peaks and rain in the lowlands.. The east side of both mountain ranges sit in relative rain shadows, particularly the east of the Cascades; parts of eastern Washington wouldn’t look out of place in the desert Southwest.The map from the NWS Seattle office shows this pattern clearly, but the magnitude of rainfall is on another level. Even by the region’s soggy standards, this November has been absolutely shocking. A major atmospheric river ushered moisture from the tropics to the region mid-month. Up to 2 feet (0.6 meters) of rain fell and, combined with wildfire scars leftover from this summer, unleashed widespread flooding and debris flows on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border. At one point, every road connecting Vancouver to the rest of Canada was closed due to damage, and farmers resorted to jet ski rescues for their cattle herds.Another major atmospheric river hit the region over the Thanksgiving long weekend and hasn’t let up, with Tuesday’s pulse of rain being the latest in that string of storms. At one point, the Trans-Canada Highway was shut down this weekend so authorities could build a dam across it. Seattle has already set the record for its wettest November and the rain on the month’s last day will only pad it further. Numerous daily rainfall records have also been set across the region.A natural climate phenomenon that forms every few years in the tropical Pacific known as La Niña is also another major driver of wetter-than-normal weather in the Pacific Northwest. La Niña formed this year, which could be a contributing factor. Climate change has increased the odds and intensity of the heaviest downpours, much like the ones that have hit the Northwest recently. Burning fossil fuels has also increased the odds of extreme heat, including the record-smashing heat wave this summer. It’s this one-two punch that shows just how much we need to be ready for all types of hazards that also intersect.
Why some lawmakers are pushing for a Virginia flood board - Virginia Mercury - With sea level rise and more frequent intense rainstorms putting pressure on communities statewide, some Virginia officials are again pushing for the creation of a state flood board. “People may dispute the cause, but I don’t think there’s any dispute along party lines about what’s happening on the ground across the commonwealth,” said Sen. Lynwood Lewis, D-Accomack. “So the question is, ‘What are we going to do about it to deal with it?’” Lewis, as well as a commission representing 17 local governments in the flood-beset Hampton Roads region, is backing a proposal for the 2022 General Assembly session to create a Commonwealth Flood Board that they say would be akin to the Commonwealth Transportation Board that regulates and funds state transportation projects. Drafting of the legislation is already underway, said Lewis. “We see this as very much of a bipartisan or nonpartisan issue and something that’s definitely affecting the entire state, rural as well as urban Virginia from severe southwest, Bristol, to Hampton Roads to Alexandria,” Norfolk City Councilor Andria McClellan told the state’s Joint Subcommittee on Coastal Flooding Nov. 22. Another subcommittee member, engineer Chris Stone, said a technical advisory committee on coastal resilience convened by Gov. Ralph Northam last November also intends to recommend that a flood board be created. The idea isn’t new. Lewis sponsored a similar proposal during the 2021 legislative session but withdrew it from consideration because he said “some of the advocates for it felt the idea wasn’t ready for primetime.” A separate proposal for a statewide hurricane and flood risk protection authority from Del. Jason Miyares, R-Virginia Beach — soon to become Virginia’s next attorney general — also failed to make it out of committee.
Heavy rains destroy over 5 million ha (12.4 million acres) of crops in 2021, India - Heavy rain in India has destroyed more than 5 million ha (12.4 million acres) of crops in 2021. Karnataka was the worst affected, with 1.4 million ha (3.5 million acres) of crop lost, followed by Rajasthan with 679 000 ha (1.68 million acres), West Bengal with 690 000 ha (1.7 million acres), Bihar with 580 000 ha (1.4 million acres), and Maharashtra with 455 000 ha (1.1 million acres), as of November 25, 2021. Other states included Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Odisha among others, according to the Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Narendra Singh Tomar.1 Karnataka, which has the highest area under crop damage, received 102% excess rainfall from October - November, according to data by the Indian Meteorological Department.
At least 18 dead or missing after severe floods hit Vietnam (videos) At least 18 people have died or are missing after heavy rains affecting Vietnam since November 26, 2021, caused severe floods and damage. The death toll was confirmed by Vietnam Disaster Management Agency (VDMA) on December 1. The worst affected was Phu Yen with 10 fatalities, Binh Dinh with 3, Khanh Hoa and Dak Lak with 2, and Kon Tum with 1. Nearly 60 000 homes were flooded, with 31 100 in Binh Dinh, where floodwaters reached up to 1.2 m (3.94 feet), and 28 639 in Phui Yen. More than 4 700 families in Phu Yen’s Tuy An District were isolated due to floodwaters. Hundreds of families were evacuated, and around 66,000 students in the province could not go to school due to the floods.1 Song Tranh in Quang Nam registered 432 mm (17 inches) of rain in 24 hours to November 29. In 24 hours to November 30, 429 mm (16.9 inches) was registered in Ea Bar in Phu Yen and 368 mm (14.5 inches) in My Thuan Lake, Binh Dinh.2 From November 26 to 30, areas of Bac Tra My District in Quang Nam Province saw 874 mm (34.4 inches) of rain, while Ba Le in Quang Ngai Province recorded 834 mm (32.8 inches).The rains have subsided and efforts are underway to locate those missing, the government said in a statement.3 Some national highways, inter-provincial, and local roads were partially blocked, it added. In addition, the floods have inundated 780 ha (1 927 acres) of rice fields, although no damage has been reported so far to coffee farms.
Wettest spring since 2010 and the wettest November since records began in 1900, Australia --Australia has experienced its wettest spring since 2010 and the wettest November since records began in 1900, according to data provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) on December 1, 2021.Spring rainfall was above to very much above average for most of Australia, and 57% above average for Australia as a whole.Large areas of eastern Australia had rainfall in the highest 10% of historical observations (decile 10) for spring.A large number of stations across the eastern seaboard and a few scattered elsewhere in Queensland's Gulf Country and the Northern Territory observed their highest total rainfall on record for the three months September - November.Rainfall was close to average or below average for western Victoria and south-eastern South Australia, much of the south of Western Australia and along the north-west coast, parts of the Top End, and parts of Queensland's Cape York Peninsula.While September was a little drier than average, and October a little wetter than the average for Australia as a whole, November was exceptionally wet, with the national area-averaged rainfall more than twice the average and the highest on record for November.Thunderstorms and severe storms were frequent during spring, and included:
- in the south-eastern mainland and Queensland at the end of September
- parts of Queensland and New South Wales at various times throughout October, with a number of tornados and reports of giant hail
- giant to gargantuan hail in Yalboroo (between Proserpine and Mackay in Queensland) on October 19, with a hailstone measured at 16 cm, the largest hailstone measurement verified in Australia
- heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding and riverine flooding in eastern Australia during November
Powerful windstorm hits Istanbul, claiming at least 4 lives and injuring dozens others, Turkey -A severe windstorm hit Turkey's biggest city Istanbul (population 15.5 million) on Monday, November 29, 2021, leaving at least 4 people dead and 38 others injured.Turkey's weather agency issued an orange-level storm warning (3 of 4) for 17 provinces, and a yellow alert (2 of 4) for 35 provinces ahead of the storm.1The storm brought powerful winds, blowing away at least 33 roofs, knocked down 52 traffic signs, uprooted 192 trees, and damaged 12 cars, the Istanbul municipality officials said.2"Due to the adverse weather conditions caused by southwesterly winds that have been effective in Istanbul since the morning, four people have lost their lives, one of whom was a foreign national and three were our citizens," the Istanbul Governor's office said in a statement.As of 17:30 LT (14:30 UTC), 38 people were injured.Turkey's flag-carrier Turkish Airlines (THY) reported disruptions to its flight schedule, while the Bosporus has been closed to traffic from both directions.A clock tower blew over because of the heavy wind in the Çatalca district. Also, two trucks and one pickup truck overturned in Çatalca. Seas overflowed and roofs blew away in some provinces of Izmir, Kocaeli and Bursa.More torrential rain and thunderstorms are possible in the Marmara, Aegean, Western Mediterranean and western Black Sea regions and the northwest of central Anatolia, the Turkish State Meteorological Service said.
Satellites reveal Arctic rivers are changing faster than we thought --A civil and environmental engineering researcher at the University of Massachusetts Amherst has, for the first time, assimilated satellite information into on-site river measurements and hydrologic models to calculate the past 35 years of river discharge in the entire pan-Arctic region. The research reveals, with unprecedented accuracy, that the acceleration of water pouring into the Arctic Ocean could be three times higher than previously thought. The unprecedented research assimilates 9.18 million river discharge estimates made from 155,710 orbital satellite images into hydrologic model simulations of 486,493 Arctic river reaches from 1984-2018. The project and the paper are called RADR (Remotely-sensed Arctic Discharge Reanalysis) and was funded by NASA and National Science Foundation programs for early career researchers. "We recreated the river discharge information all over the pan-Arctic region. Previous studies didn't do this," Feng says. "They only used some gauge data and only for certain rivers, not all of them, to calculate how much water is pouring into the Arctic Ocean." "This is a new, publicly available daily record of flow across the global North," "No one has ever tried to do it at this scale: Teaching the models what the satellites saw daily in half a million rivers from millions of satellite observations. It's a very sophisticated data assimilation, which is the process of merging models and data." River discharge integrates all hydrologic processes of upstream watersheds and defines a river's carrying capacity. It is considered the single most important measurement needed to understand a river, yet the availability of this information is limited due to a lack of reliable, comprehensive, publicly available data, Feng says. Physically gauging rivers—the "gold standard" for gaining discharge information—is expensive and labor-intensive to install and maintain because gauges need to be physically recalibrated several times a year. Also, rough terrain around some rivers can make gauge installation very difficult. This makes it more practical for studies in this region to focus on larger rivers that empty into the Arctic Ocean, so many small rivers are not gauged at all. Also, some countries don't make their gauge information publicly available. That leaves hydrologists and environmental scientists in the dark about a tremendous number of rivers, Feng says.
Rain Could Replace Snow in Arctic Decades Faster Than Previously Thought, Study Finds - As the climate continues to warm, rain will replace snow as the primary form of precipitation in the Arctic decades earlier than previously thought, according to research. This will have profound implications for the planet. Snow still falls more frequently than rain in the Arctic, but the study suggests that will change. All the land and nearly all its seas will see more rain than snow before the end of the century if the Earth’s temperatures increase by three degrees Celsius. A global temperature rise of 1.5 to two degrees Celsius would still result in rain dominating the areas of the Greenland and Norwegian Seas. “The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5C with profound climactic, ecosystem and socioeconomic impacts,” the scientists concluded in Nature Communications. An analysis of the world's current policies by watchdog Climate Action Tracker showed that the planet is on track for a temperature increase of 2.7 degrees Celsius if countries follow through with their plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as reported by CNN. “In the central Arctic, where you would imagine there should be snowfall in the whole of the autumn period, we’re actually seeing an earlier transition to rainfall. That will have huge implications,” “The Arctic having very strong snowfall is really important for everything in that region and also for the global climate, because it reflects a lot of sunlight.” The latest climate models showed that the central Arctic will become dominated by rain by the autumn of 2060 or 2070 if there is no reduction in carbon emissions, instead of by 2090, as earlier models had predicted. McCrystall and her colleagues found that the shift from snow to rain could be most pronounced in autumn. “What happens if the Arctic doesn’t stay there,”In August, scientists were stunned when rain was recorded on the summit of Greenland’s ice cap for the first time. “Now all of a sudden, if you introduce liquid water into the picture and rainfall, there are a lot of engineering questions and things that could become really problematic for us in the future if this becomes a regular occurrence,” said National Science Foundation program officer, Jennifer Mercer, soon after rain fell on the summit of Greenland’s ice cap, as reported by The Washington Post. The researchers called the implications, from melting permafrost to sea level rise, sped-up global heating and mass famine in the region’s reindeer and caribou populations, “profound.” Scientists believe that the quick Arctic warming could also be escalating floods and heatwaves in Europe, Asia and North America because of changes in the jet stream, according to The Guardian.
How an Arctic City Became One of the World's Most Polluted Places -In Norilsk, the northernmost city in the world, the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, but the permafrost and structural problems have not been caused by climate change alone. A smelting company has polluted rivers and destroyed boreal forest.Norilsk, population 176,000, is known by environmentalists and the Russian Federation government as one of the most polluted places on Earth. According to The Atlantic, the life expectancy there is ten years less than in other regions of Russia, respiratory diseases are widespread and the risk of cancer is two times higher. The culprit is Norilsk Nickel, a company that produces more palladium and high-grade nickel than any other in the world. It is also a major producer of cobalt, platinum and copper.The pollution caused by the company has turned one of the world’s biggest carbon sinks into a wasteland of dead and dying forest in the taiga, or boreal forest. The company produces the worst sulfur dioxide in the world and last year a holding tank gave way, releasing 6.5 million gallons of diesel fuel that flowed into the Kara Sea, the biggest Arctic oil spill in history. The company denies that any diesel made it into the Arctic, but “the Russian government’s fisheries agency told Inside Climate News that its testing showed that the contamination had reached that far,” according to NBC News.The company admitted that it had been dumping wastewater into the Arctic tundra, as Agence-France Press(AFP) reported. According to Agence-France Press, as reported by The Guardian, “Independent newspaperNovaya Gazeta published videos from the scene showing large metal pipes carrying wastewater from the reservoir and dumping foaming liquid among nearby trees.”Norilsk Nickel says that it can rehabilitate the environment. The company paid a $2 billion fine for last year’s diesel spill, the largest environmental fine in the Russian Federation’s history. The company has promised over $5 billion for pollution control and economic and social revitalization throughout the territory of Krasnoyarsk Krai, according to Inside Climate News.
Ice sheet at Grímsvötn subsided almost 10 m (33 feet), Iceland -The GPS meter in Grímsvötn shows that the ice cap continues to descend and it has sunk almost 9.87 m (32.4 feet) since it was measured highest on November 24, 2021, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) reports.Running water has now appeared in Gígjukvísl and the water level there has risen gradually yesterday and last night.1IMO hydrologists are on their way to the scene and they will monitor the development of the run and measure the flow in the river.It can be expected that the water level and flow will continue to increase in Gígjukvísl in the next few days.Glaciologists at the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Iceland have published a forecast model that assumes that the maximum flow in this event will be reached around next weekend or the beginning of next week, December 6. Flow from Grímsvötn has grown more slowly in this run than in Grímsvatnahlaup in 2010, and based on the latest data, the maximum flow in Gígjukvísl is expected to be around 4 000 m3/s (141 000 ft3/s). There is no chance that running water will enter the old channel of Skeiðará, IMO said.Measurements carried out by the University's Institute of Earth Sciences on November 29 indicate that about 0.1 km3 (0.02 mi3) of water has already left the lakes, which is about 10% of the water that was in Grímsvötn before the iceberg began to sink.There are past examples of Grímsvötn eruptions starting following a flood.2The loss of the water from Grímsvötn lake reduces the pressure on top of the volcano and this can allow an eruption to begin.This happened in 2004, and before that in 1934 and in 1922, IMO said.In 2004 the eruption started three days after the first observations were made of flood onset. There were a series of earthquakes in the days preceding the eruption. No such earthquakes have been measured at this point in time.
Ice sheet in Grímsvötn subsided 17 m (55.8 feet) in 9 days, Iceland - The ice sheet in Grímsvötn has subsided about 17 m (55.8 feet) from November 24 to December 2, 2021. This is about 9 days since it started subsiding and running water began to break its way under the glacier. The Meteorological Office's hydrologists measured the flow in Gígjukvísl at about 11:00 UTC on December 2 which was then almost 930 m3/s (32 850 ft3/s) and the flow has almost tripled in about three days, the Icelandic Met Office said in an update released at 16:00 UTC on December 2, 2021.1 This flow is 10 times the flow of the river compared to the season. Electrical conductivity, which indicates the amount of running water in the river, has also increased in recent days and was measured at 272 uS/cm at 13:00 UTC on December 2 and is rising. Gas is measured in small quantities at the glacier tail and is well within the danger limits. "The latest measurements fit fairly well with the flow forecasts that have been made and assume that the flood will probably reach its peak next Sunday. If there are major changes in the development of the flow from Grímsvötn, it will affect when the flood peak is reached," IMO said. There are examples of eruptions in Grímsvötn after water flows from there. "The last time this happened was in 2004 and before that in 1934 and 1922. In 2004, traces of the start of the eruption were seen on October 28 and the eruption began about three days later, or at the end of the day on November 1. In the days before, the earthquake in Grímsvötn was a sign that an eruption was imminent. However, no such earthquakes have been detected so far, IMO said. The last eruption in Grímsvötn took place in 2011, but this time it had run out of Grímsvötn just over six months before. Since 2011 it has run a total of 6 times from Grímsvötn without an eruption. The eruption has taken place every five to ten years from Grímsvötn, and scientists agree that measurements show that conditions are such that Grímsvötn is ready to erupt. However, it is not possible to state that this situation will trigger an eruption, and seismic activity in Grímsvötn needs to be closely monitored, which could give indications that an eruption is imminent.
Climate change is making one of the world's strongest currents flow faster - The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the only ocean current that circumnavigates the planet, is speeding up. For the first time, scientists are able to tell that this is happening by taking advantage of a decades-long set of observational records. Researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and UC Riverside used satellite measurements of sea-surface height and data collected by the global network of ocean floats called Argo to detect a trend in Southern Ocean upper layer velocity that had been hidden to scientists until now. The team representing the National Science Foundation-funded Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) project reports its findings in the Nov. 29 issue of the journal Nature Climate Change. Prevailing westerly winds have sped up as climate warms. Models show that the wind speedup does not change the ocean currents much. Rather, it energizes ocean eddies, which are circular movements of water running counter to main cuurents. "From both observations and models, we find that the ocean heat change is causing the significant ocean current acceleration detected during recent decades," said Jia-Rui Shi, formerly a Ph.D. student at Scripps Oceanography and currently a postdoctoral researcher at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. "This speedup of the ACC, especially its jet centered on the Subantarctic Front, facilitates property exchange, such as of heat or carbon, between ocean basins and creates the opportunity for these properties to increase in subsurface subtropical regions." The ACC encircles Antarctica and separates cold water in the south from warmer subtropical water just to its north. This warmer part of the Southern Ocean takes up a lot of the heat that human activities are adding to Earth's atmosphere. For this reason, scientists consider it vital to understand its dynamics, since what happens there could influence climate everywhere else. The ocean warming pattern is important. When the gradient, or amount of heat difference, between warm and cold waters increases, currents between those two masses speed up. "The ACC is mostly driven by wind, but we show that changes in its speed are surprisingly mostly due to changes in the heat gradient," said co-author Lynne Talley, a physical oceanographer at Scripps Oceanography.
Hundreds of Toxic Sites in California Could Flood Because of Sea Level Rise By 2100 - A new California mapping project reveals another example of how the climate crisis disproportionately impacts vulnerable and disadvantaged communities. The Toxic Tides project, unveiled during a virtual workshop Tuesday, maps more than 400 hazardous sites like power plants, refineries and toxic waste dumps that could flood if sea levels rise by more than three feet, which they are projected to do by the end of 2100 if little is done to resolve the climate crisis. This is a majorenvironmental justice issue, because these sites are disproportionately located in low income communities of color. "We know from past flood events that the wealthy communities are not the ones that suffer the greatest impacts," University of California (UC), Los Angeles environmental health scientist Lara Cushing told the Los Angeles Times. "The vulnerabilities of environmental justice communities to sea level rise have not been front and center in the conversation in a way that it should be." Cushing is one of the scientists working to change that through the Toxic Tides project. Along with Rachel Morello-Frosch of UC Berkeley, environmental advocate Lucas Zucker and community groups, she worked to create an online tool that will for the first time map which toxic sites are most likely to flood and impact vulnerable communities along the entire Californai coast. The research found that disadvantaged communities are more than five times more likely to live within a kilometer of one or more facilities that could flood by 2050, according to a project fact sheet. By 2100, these communities are more than six times more likely to live near an at-risk location. This flooding is a problem because it could expose nearby residents to harmful chemicals and polluted water, the Los Angeles Times explained.
7.5 magnitude earthquake leaves Peru’s impoverished Amazonas in ruins - A 7.5 magnitude earthquake has left a large part of the department of Amazonas, one of the poorest in Peru, in ruins. According to the Peruvian Geophysical Institute, the earthquake occurred at 5:52 a.m. on November 28, and its waves extended throughout northern and central Peru, reaching the capital Lima, 1,125 km away by road, as well as the southern regions of Ecuador and Colombia. Hours after the quake, the Lima daily La República said that in the department of Amazonas alone, “The tremor left 636 victims, 2,202 affected, 12 injured; as well as 117 houses destroyed, 110 uninhabitable and 408 houses affected.” One woman died apparently of a heart attack. The updated Damage Assessment and Needs Analysis (EDAN) said that in the region 764 houses were affected, 375 left uninhabitable and 117 fully destroyed. “Three percent of the people do not have electricity.” In addition, 32 health care facilities, eight public offices and 19 churches were damaged. Five other religious centers were destroyed. This is not counting the damage to the road infrastructure, which is enormous. At the epicenter of the earthquake, “Six schools [were] affected, a health center and two temples destroyed,” the National Institute of Civil Defense (INDECI) reported. Two days after the event, another newspaper, El Comercio, reported: “As of yesterday, the mortal victim of the earthquake was a three-year-old boy, who was crushed to death by some boards that fell due to the tremor.” It added that “more than 6,000 people were affected.” The lack of development of infrastructure in remote areas had a strong negative impact. Rock falls abounded on the highways. The main ones blocked roads linking Chachapoyas to Pedro Ruiz Gallo and Chachapoyas to Rodriguez de Mendoza.
Submarine eruption at Iliwerung volcano, Indonesia - A new submarine eruption started at Iliwerung volcano, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia at 13:52 UTC (21:52 WITA) on November 28, 2021, and lasted about 1 hour. As a result, the Alert Level was raised from 1 (Normal) to 2 (Alert) at 02:00 UTC on November 29. The activity started again at 21:17 UTC and continued through the morning. "Eruptions and bubbles were observed in the southern waters around the Iliwerung Volcano Complex," PVMBG said in a press release on November 29.1 "This incident has resulted in rising sea levels. According to residents' reports, the sea level rose at night on November 28, with a height of less than 1 m (3.3 feet) and an inundation distance of about 30 m (98 feet)." Iliwerung Volcano Observatory reported ash plume rising approximately 100 m (33 feet) above sea level at 00:29 UTC on November 29. This activity is taking place about 1 km (0.62 miles) south of the Hobal submarine volcano. People living near the area where this activity is taking place are recommended to avoid any activity on the nearby coast and avoid sailing/going to the spot.
Sudden phreatic eruption at Pinatubo volcano, Philippines - A sudden phreatic eruption took place at Pinatubo volcano, Philippines between 04:09 and 04:13 UTC (12:09 - 12:13 PHT) on November 30, 2021. The Tokyo VAAC reported a possible eruption at the volcano with ash observed rising up to 13.4 km (44 000 feet) above sea level at 05:30 UTC.The event was also confirmed to have occurred after ordnance disposal activities by the AFP, which has no relation to the condition of the volcano, on the northern flanks of Pinatubo conducted prior to noon (LT) today.1 The eruption produced a plume that was detected by the Himawari-8 satellite and reported to DOST-PHIVOLCS by the Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Tokyo VAAC) - with ash observed rising up to 13.4 km (44 000 feet) above sea level at 05:30 UTC.2 DOST-PHIVOLCS is cautioning the public to refrain from venturing in the vicinities of Pinatubo Volcano at this time. Local government units are advised to prohibit entry into Pinatubo Crater as shallow phreatic or hydrothermal explosions such as the event of today can occur without warning. Communities and local government units surrounding Pinatubo are reminded to be always prepared for both earthquake and volcanic hazards and to review, prepare and strengthen their contingency, emergency and other disaster preparedness plans. DOST-PHIVOLCS continues to strengthen its monitoring of the volcano with ongoing upgrades to the PVN, periodic geochemical surveys of the Pinatubo Crater lake and GPS and satellite analysis of ground deformation. The prevailing Alert Level 0 status of the volcano is currently under consideration pending the results of ongoing GPS and InSAR data processing.
Major explosive event at Sangay volcano, ash to possibly 15.2 km (50 000 feet) a.s.l., Ecuador A major explosive event was registered at Sangay volcano, Ecuador at 09:03 on December 2, 2021. The Washington VAAC is reporting volcanic ash rising up to possibly 15.2 km (50 000 feet) above sea level. Consequently, there is a possibility of ashfall in the areas located to the west and southwest of the volcano, in the province of Chimborazo, IGEPN reports.1 It is recommended to take the pertinent measures and receive the information from official sources. Satellite imagery acquired at 04:40 UTC show 2 ash clouds, the first reaches 10 km (32 800 feet) over the crater and the second 7 km (23 000 feet) over the crater, IGEPN said.2 NWP models suggest volcanic ash rising to possibly 15.2 km (50 000 feet) a.s.l., the Washington VAAC reported at 10:25 UTC. Volcanic ash is expected to dissipate over the next 12 hours as the event appears to be a single explosion although further emissions are possible.3 This phenomenon has been persistent within the current eruptive period that began in May 2019. The IGEPN continues to monitor the event and will inform promptly in case of detecting changes.
NASA says huge, 'potentially hazardous' asteroid will break into Earth's orbit next week -- An asteroid the size of the Eiffel Tower is heading towards Earth this month and it’s considered an especially unique piece of rock by scientists. The asteroid 4660 Nereus is classified as a “potentially hazardous” piece of rock because of its proximity to Earth.. On Dec. 11, NASA expects it to be at its closest point to Earth over a 20-year period. The asteroid was discovered back in 1982.The 4660 Nereus is a 330-meter asteroid in the shape of an egg and within the next week scientists anticipate it will come within 2.5 million miles from Earth. Despite that sounding like an incredibly far away distance, it’s about ten times farther away than the moon, which is considered close by cosmic standards. NASA considers a near-Earth object to be an asteroid or comet that comes within approximately 30 million miles of Earth’s orbit.According to an analysis by Forbes, Nereus has been a proposed target for a space mission multiple times, because of its egg shape, size and orbital path around the sun it makes for an ideal asteroid to visit.
Iowa's largest fertilizer plant signs carbon transportation and storage agreement -A Midwestern carbon management company has forged an agreement with Iowa's largest fertilizer plant to transport and store 1.13 million mt/year of carbon using a carbon capture pipeline system, the companies said Nov. 29. The Iowa Fertilizer Company, owned by the global nitrogen products maker OCI, signed the agreement with Navigator CO2 Ventures to manage carbon captured from IFCo's plant process gas and post-combustion stages. About 500,000 mt of carbon will captured and stored through process gas, and the remaining 630,000 mt will be captured through post-combustion capture equipment, the companies said in a joint statement. Navigator CO2 Ventures will transport the carbon through the Heartland Greenway pipeline system, a proposed 1,300-mile network that will transport carbon from industrial and biofuel producers in Illinois, Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa for underground sequestration at a site in Illinois. The network is commercially anchored by Valero and has nearly 20 receipt points, Navigator spokesperson Andy Bates later told S&P Global Platts in an email. Once fully expanded, the Heartland Greenway will have capacity to transport and store 15 million mt/year of captured CO2, according to the Navigator spokesperson said. The pipeline project was initially announced in October and is expected begin construction after its permit is approved in 2023. Phased-in operations are expected to begin in late 2024 and early 2025. Once built, the pipeline will be capable of capturing and storing "materially all of the CO2 emissions" from the Iowa fertilizer plant, subject to regulatory changes within the 45Q program, a federal program that awards money to carbon capture and storage projects. The agreement "allows for an effective and quick solution to reduce our CO2 footprint and offer low carbon products to our customers across the value chain from our world-scale facility in Iowa," said OCI CEO Ahmed El-Hoshy in the statement. "We are monitoring the on-going discussions in Congress around enhancements to the 45Q program to support the project economics and potentially open the opportunity to widen the scope of this project to capture more CO2." Section 45Q of the federal tax code currently provides carbon credits valued at $50/mt for projects that permanently store carbon geologically, and $35/mt for projects that use captured carbon for enhanced oil recovery. Provisions within the Biden Administration's Build Back Better Act would increase these amounts to $85/mt for permanent geologic storage and $60/mt for enhanced oil recovery.
Public hearings get underway for second proposed carbon dioxide pipeline - The first of dozens of public meetings will be held at noon today on a proposal to build a carbon dioxide pipeline that would run the length of the state. The Heartland Greenway project would pipe pressurized carbon across some 1,300 miles and five states, terminating in Illinois. The pipe would go through Jessica Wiskus’ land in rural Linn County. She hopes to organize neighbors against the project, which she says presents safety concerns. “They want us to think we can’t do anything,” Wiskus says. “They want us to think it won’t matter if we talk to our neighbors, but I think that they underestimate our character and I feel that this issue actually unites us.” The project would capture carbon emissions at multiple ethanol plants across the five states. Some researchers say carbon capture is vital to lowering emissions, but Wiskus is worried about how safe and effective the project is and she’s organizing against it. “It unites the farmers. It unites the farmer’s daughters, like me. It unites rural and town folks. It unites the environmentalists. People on the right and the left,” she says. “And the fact that this issue can unite us is what gives me hope.”
Cautious hope for CO2 capture after "false starts" - The pipeline of carbon capture projects worldwide is growing and there are signs that fewer plans will die on the vine than in the past, the International Energy Agency said. Carbon capture, utilization and storage has the potential to curb emissions from heavy industries and power generation. But the long-hoped-for scale-up of commercial deployment has unfolded very slowly. The new IEA commentary says over 100 projects have been announced this year. And more projects may survive the journey from concept to commercial operation, writes Samantha McCulloch, head of IEA's CCUS unit. "While CCUS certainly still faces challenges, the combination of strengthened climate goals, an improved investment environment and new business models have set the stage for greater success in coming years," she writes. Catch up fast: The IEA report catalogs the gap between hope and reality in the past, with numerous projects canceled over the past decade. Less than 3 million tons of CO2 capture capacity has been added annually. Right now global capacity is around 40 million tons. That's a far cry from the 1.6 billion cumulative total envisioned by 2030 in IEA's roadmap for meeting net-zero global emissions by 2050.
Advocates say carbon capture is an important tool. Iowa residents in the path of proposed pipelines aren't convinced - When Jessica Wiskus of rural Linn County opened the letter from Navigator CO₂ Ventures, she had no idea what a carbon sequestration pipeline was. In the time since she first received notice that the company hopes to build a pipeline through her land, she’s tried to make herself an amateur expert, pouring over research papers and business filings for the technology, which some researchers say is vital to curbing greenhouse but which some activists see as propping up polluters. Wiskus says she and her husband recently moved back to Iowa after living for many years in Pennsylvania so that their daughter could be closer to their extended family and closer to the land. . “When you grow on the land, it's not about you anymore. It really is about the miracles of nature that we have every single year..” When she got the notice from Navigator, Wiskus said she couldn’t help but think of what she had seen in Pennsylvania: unfamiliar companies selling a relatively new technology and promising an economic boom for rural residents, in exchange for the rights to their land. Fracking did make a fortune for the corporations, Wiskus said, but devastated local residents. “And so you can imagine that when I received these materials, and they sounded so much like the materials, and they're so slickly produced, they sounded so much like what I had seen in Pennsylvania, it just was quite alarming to me,” Wiskus said. Scores of Iowans have received notices from Navigator, which hopes to build a carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) system that would run the length of the state. The proposed Heartland Greenway project would capture emissions from ethanol plants and other industrial sites across South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois, piping the pressurized carbon dioxide some 1,300 miles to a site in Christian County, Illinois, were it would be buried underground in a geologic formation known as the Mt. Simon Sandstone. According to the company, the project would permanently sequester some 10 to 15 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, comparable to the emissions from about 3 million cars.
Profiting from the Carbon Offset Distraction -- Yves here. Calling carbon offset a “distraction” is charitable. Scam would be a better word. Carbon offset markets allow the rich to emit as financial intermediaries profit. By fostering the fiction that others can be paid to cut greenhouse gases (GHGs) instead, it undermines efforts to do so. Committing to achieve ‘net-zero’ carbon emissions has become a major climate change policy goal. But most climate scientists agree the target is dangerously misleading. Ostensibly promoting decarbonization, it actually allows carbon emissions to continue rising. More than 130 countries pledged in Glasgow to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Despite well-known setbacks, the COP26 Glasgow Climate Pact has been hailed as a breakthrough on the “path to a safer future”. Before COP26, many cities, regions, businesses, investors and higher education institutions joined the 120 countries already committed then. Achieving net-zero via offset trading has thus become the main climate action distraction. Following difficult, protracted negotiations after the 2015 Paris Agreement (PA), Article 6 was the last of its 29 Articles agreed to. Article 6 unifies carbon offset trading standards in order to minimize ‘double counting’. Offsetting allows countries and companies to continue emitting GHGs instead of cutting them. Buying offsets lets them claim their emissions have been ‘cancelled’. Thus, offset markets have slowed climate action in the rich North, responsible for two-thirds of cumulative emissions.. The Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) also enables not cutting GHG production by paying others to do so. Thus, offset markets enable the wealthy to avoid cutting GHG discharges at little cost. But why pay for emission cuts which would have happened anyway, even without being paid for via offset sales? At best, net-zero is a zero-sum game maintaining atmospheric GHG levels. But progress requires CO2 reduction, i.e., being net-negative, not just net-zero. Many carbon credits sold as offsets do not additionally remove carbon as claimed. For example, J.P. Morgan, Disney and BlackRock have all paid millions to protect forests not even under threat. A CEO agreed its offset – buying into a Tanzania forestry programme – “is cheating”.The Economist sees carbon offsets as “cheap cheats”. By ramping up the supply of offsets, prices were kept low. Much scope to game the system remains. Energy-intensive companies collude and lobby against high carbon prices, insisting they damage competitiveness.Often buying in bulk, they pay too little for carbon credits to incentivize switching to renewable energy. Averaging only US$3 per tonne of CO2 in 2018 cannot accelerate desirable energy transitions.Less than 5% of all offsets actually reduce CO2 in the atmosphere. A 2016 European Commission study of CDM offset projects found 85% provided no environmental benefits.
The US Biofuel Mandate Helps Farmers, but Does Little for Energy Security and Harms the Environment -If you’ve pumped gas at a U.S. service station over the past decade, you’ve put biofuel in your tank. Thanks to the federal Renewable Fuel Standard, or RFS, almost all gasoline sold nationwide is required to contain 10% ethanol – a fuel made from plant sources, mainly corn.With the recent rise in pump prices, biofuel lobbies are pressing to boost that target to 15% or more. At the same time, some policymakers are calling for reforms. For example, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators has introduced a bill that would eliminate the corn ethanol portion of the mandate.Enacted in the wake of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the RFS promised to enhance energy security, cut carbon dioxide emissions and boost income for rural America. The program has certainly raised profits for portions of the agricultural industry, but in my view it has failed to fulfill its other promises. Indeed, studies by some scientists, including me, find that biofuel use has increased rather than decreased CO2 emissions to date.Current law sets a target of producing and using 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022 as part of the roughly 200 billion gallons of motor fuel that U.S. motor vehicles burn each year. As of 2019, drivers were using only 20 billion gallons of renewable fuels yearly – mainly corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel. Usage declined in 2020 because of the pandemic, as did most energy use. Although the 2021 tally is not yet complete, the program remains far from its 36 billion-gallon goal. I believe the time is ripe to repeal the RFS, or at least greatly scale it back.The RFS’s clearest success has been boosting income for corn and soybean farmers and related agricultural firms. It also has built up a sizable domestic biofuel industry.The Renewable Fuels Association, a trade group for the biofuels industry, estimates that the RFS has generated over 300,000 jobsin recent years. Two-thirds of these jobs are in the top ethanol-producing states: Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana and South Dakota. Given Iowa’s key role in presidential primaries, most politicians with national ambitions find it prudent toembrace biofuels.The RFS displaces a modest amount of petroleum, shifting some income away from the oil industry and into agribusiness. Nevertheless, biofuels’ contribution to U.S. energy security pales compared with gains from expanded domestic oil production through hydraulic fracturing – which of course brings its own severe environmental damages. And using ethanol in fuel poses other risks, including damage to small engines and higher emissions from fuel fumes.For consumers, biofuel use has had a varying, but overall small, effect on pump prices. Renewable fuel policy has little leverage in the world oil market, where the biofuel mandate’s penny-level effects are no match for oil’s dollar-scale volatility.
Ohio Supreme Court to hear arguments over state certificate to allow Icebreaker wind project on Lake Erie - cleveland.com – Two Bratenahl residents are scheduled to argue before the Ohio Supreme Court next week that a state board should not have granted a certificate that will allow construction of the Icebreaker wind project on Lake Erie.On Dec. 7, the Ohio Supreme Court will hear an appeal from W. Susan Dempsey and Robert M. Maloney against the Ohio Power Siting Board, the panel that reviews wind generation proposals and, when it deems appropriate under state law, provides certificates of environmental compatibility and public need, which are necessary for construction to begin. Icebreaker, if built, would be the first freshwater wind project in North America. It’s proposed as a demonstration project of six wind turbines, generating 20.7 megawatts of electricity.The history of the conflict between Dempsey and Maloney and the Icebreaker project goes back to May 23, 2018, when the Ohio Power Siting Board granted the Bratenahl residents permission to intervene in Icebreaker’s application for the certificate.Also at the time, the Siting Board granted others permission to intervene, such as the Sierra Club, the Ohio Environmental Council and the Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio Regional Council of Carpenters. The other groups entered into a stipulation, or agreement, with Icebreaker that resolved environmental and construction concerns on Sept. 4, 2018. However, Dempsey and Maloney were not part of the stipulation and continued to oppose the project. The case is likely the last legal hurdle for Icebreaker, after years of hearings and appeals with the Siting Board—including a requirement, since removed, that the operation of the turbine blades be curtailed from dusk to dawn between March 1 to Nov. 1 each year following construction to mitigate the killing of migrating birds and bats. Icebreaker officials celebrated that win, saying the requirement was a poison pill that would make the demonstration project financially unviable. Siting Board made many decisions under former Chair Sam Randazzo, who opposed renewable energy in his earlier career as an energy lobbyist, and ultimately had to resign from the Siting Board and Public Utilities Commission of Ohio after the FBI searched his Columbus home during its investigation into the alleged $60 million corruption scandal involving FirstEnergy and former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder.Nevertheless, even if Icebreaker is successful in Ohio’s high court, it lacks tens of millions of dollars necessary for the estimated $173 million needed to finance and construct the turbines. It needs to line up more customers to buy the power.
House passes bill creating electric vehicle commission - The Ohio House has approved legislation that would set up an Electric Vehicle Commission to help advise state lawmakers on policy while also providing tax breaks for EV manufacturers. Those tax incentives run through the end of 2026 and apply to components like batteries specifically designed for EVs. But legislative analysts raised questions about the exemptions, noting two existing tax breaks would cover “most if not all” of the parts affected by the legislation. They also note that currently Lordstown Motors is the only EV manufacturer in the state. The proposal’s commission would study existing EV policy and write annual reports with recommendations for developing the market. The ten-member panel would be made up of six appointees selected by the governor and two each from the General Assembly and the Senate. The bipartisan measure is co-sponsored by Rep. Al Cutrona, R-Canfield, and Rep. Lisa Sobecki, D-Toledo. In a press release after the House approved the bill, Sobecki said the legislation would prepare the state for an “electric vehicle future.” “As a state, we need to be better prepared for Electric Vehicle production, implementation, and proliferation. My bill puts Ohio on more secure footing and will drive economic opportunity,” Sobecki said. As it stands, Ohio’s EV market is still in its infancy. The state ranks 17th in the country for EV registrations, with about 14,500 vehicles as of June of this year.www.e
Pittsburgh to incorporate electric vehicle charging into city renovation, construction projects - An ordinance adopted Tuesday by Pittsburgh City Council will require the city to incorporate electric vehicle charging plans into its renovation and construction projects.Under the Electric Vehicle Readiness Ordinance,new and renovated city-owned facilities will be required to have the electrical capacity and equipment installed to support the city’s fleet of electric vehicles and to encourage the public to charge their electric vehicles at the facilities.Mayor Bill Peduto touted the measure as a way to improve air quality and reduce emissions.“One way to ensure more people feel comfortable purchasing electric vehicles is to make it easy for them,” Councilwoman Erika Strassburger said.The measure calls for a task force to decide on installing DC Fast Charging stations to meet the city’s needs and to ensure upgrades to any city facilities incorporate infrastructure that would accommodate electric vehicle chargers.A strategic plan adopted last year calls for the city to add more than 200 new public charging plugs on city property — as well as more than 2,000 total across the city — by 2025. Today there are more than 280 publicly listed charging stations at 75 locations in the city, according to data from November 2020. Most public chargers allow drivers to charge at no cost, the data show, while those that do charge do so either by the hour or kilowatt-hour.
IEA says renewable power installations are set for a record year, warns of net-zero uncertainty --The world is set to add nearly 290 gigawatts of renewable power capacity this year, according to the International Energy Agency, with the Paris-based organization expecting 2021 to "set a fresh all-time record for new installations." Published on Wednesday, the IEA's Renewables Market Report forecasts that the planet's renewable electricity capacity will jump to more than 4,800 GW by the year 2026, an increase of over 60% compared with 2020 levels. Capacity refers to the maximum amount of energy that installations can produce, not what they're necessarily generating. China is set to be the main driver of renewable capacity growth in the coming years, according to the IEA, with Europe, the U.S. and India following on behind. Looking at the bigger picture, the IEA said renewables are expected to account for "almost 95% of the increase in global power capacity through 2026." "We have revised up our forecast from a year earlier," the report said, "as stronger policy support and ambitious climate targets announced for COP26 outweigh the current record commodity prices that have increased the costs of building new wind and solar PV installations." Solar PV refers to solar photovoltaic, a way of directly converting sunlight into electricity. The IEA's executive director, Fatih Birol, said 2021's record renewable electricity additions were "yet another sign that a new global energy economy is emerging." "The high commodity and energy prices we are seeing today pose new challenges for the renewable industry, but elevated fossil fuel prices also make renewables even more competitive," Birol said. While the headline figures from Wednesday's report appear promising, a multitude of headwinds could buffet the sector. The IEA's report acknowledged this, noting that renewables face a "range of policy uncertainties and implementation challenges." These include everything from permitting and financing to grid integration and social acceptance.
Amid the push for a cleaner future, a proposed power plant threatens to escalate the war over the region’s power grid — Boston Globe - It would cost $85 million to build, spew thousands of tons of carbon dioxide and other harmful pollutants into the atmosphere for years to come, and perpetuate the reliance on fossil fuels in a dozen communities across Massachusetts, all while a new state law takes effect requiring drastic cuts of greenhouse gas emissions. Without state intervention, construction to build the 55 megawatt “peaker” — a power plant designed to operate during peak demand for electricity — could start in the next few weeks, making it the latest skirmish in an escalating war over the future of the region’s power grid.
Rising costs may erase years of renewables' progress — report - The global rise in commodity prices is chipping away at the confidence of clean energy analysts, who say they are increasingly uncertain that renewables and batteries can sustain their long-running price declines. The uncertainty was apparent this week in a pair of market analyses from BloombergNEF and the International Energy Agency, which assessed how the high price of key raw materials — ranging from steel, aluminum and copper to polysilicon and lithium and battery electrolytes — would change the economics of clean energy technologies. Analysts at BNEF concluded, in a 2021 battery price survey published yesterday, that a wave of cheap electric cars might have to wait an extra two years, as lithium-ion batteries break their decadelong streak of annual drops in cost. Separately, the IEA’s annual renewables report released this morning found that the current economic trends for raw materials, freight and energy raised "significant uncertainties" for renewables. If raw material costs stay high through 2022, it could wipe out three years’ worth of cost declines for solar investments, and five years’ worth for onshore wind, the IEA concluded. All that could occur alongside elevated fossil fuel prices — a factor that would be especially meaningful in preserving renewables’ competitive edge, however. The IEA, for instance, revised upward its predictions for U.S. renewable growth over the next five years, saying wind and solar would be deployed 35 percent faster than projected due to favorable state and federal policies and corporate procurements. Still, the pressures on wind and solar prices are arriving at a moment when analysts say a massive investment is needed to achieve climate action goals. Energy experts at the IEA estimated earlier this year that to reach net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, annual global investments in clean energy would need to triple. If high raw-material prices stay high through next year, analysts wrote in the report, it would endanger about 100 gigawatts’ worth of renewables — an amount roughly equivalent to the United States’ entire solar sector — that have already been contracted. Smaller companies would be less equipped to shoulder those risks. And bringing online new wind and solar projects would require an extra $100 billion per year of investment.
Critical minerals problem: Supply chain issues come to the fore - It seems that all of a sudden there is talk of mineral shortages and two metals which are thought to be plentiful in the Earth's crust, nickel and zinc, have been added to the list of minerals now deemed critical to the United States, a list recently updated by the U.S. Geological Survey.Partly, the concern is that the United States is not producing enough of its own nickel and zinc to rest easy over the availability of these metals on world markets. Nickel's new status stems in part from its emerging role in electric vehicle batteries. There is only one operating U.S. nickel mine. The situation with zinc is less concerning since there are 14 mines and three smelters.There has long been concern about Rare Earth Elements (REEs) crucial to the computer and renewable energy infrastructure. Part of the concern is China's domination of the production of these minerals. Chinese mines supplied 55 percent of all REEs mined worldwide in 2020 and its REE refineries produced 85 percent of all refined products. What has always lurked in the background in the form of "critical" and "strategic" minerals lists is the use of these minerals in military as well as commercial applications. The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency has long maintained a strategic materials stockpile "[t]o decrease and preclude dependence upon foreign sources or single points of failure for strategic materials in times of national emergency." But the trouble with minerals is they have a habit of concentrating in places far from where they are needed and under the soil of countries without the factories to utilize them. If it were just a question of, say, turning agricultural produce into a value added product such as cotton clothing from cotton grown in the same country, that would be one thing. But high-tech fabrication requires inputs from a worldwide network of suppliers to produce, for example, a computer or a permanent magnet (used in wind turbines and electric vehicles). While the Democratic Republic of Congo leads in the mine production of tantalum, a metal critical for the production of cellphones, computers and cameras, manufacturers are not flocking there to set up shop as so many other minerals from other parts of the world are needed to make these products.To get a sense of how complex the supply chains for cellphones are, a brief review of this graphic will make clear the scale of the problems we now face with vulnerable mineral supply chains.It's hard to imagine any country with significant manufacturing capability or significant use of manufactured goods (especially electronic goods) escaping dependency on some very long and complex supply chains. And, so practically every country is vulnerable.One solution to the current supply chain crisis has been to respond by bringing manufacturing back home (often from China) to the country where the manufactured goods are being purchased and used. That may be a useful step. But it doesn't necessary solve the problem of a sprawling worldwide logistics chain which now simply shifts from one country to another. The problem of multiple points of failure remains.
Like putting a lithium mine on Arlington cemetery’: the fight to save sacred land in Nevada -In northern Nevada, where her family has lived for generations, Daranda Hinkey stood before one of the largest lithium deposits in the world – the place where, as she puts it, “there’s so much lithium it makes people foam at the mouth,” she says. The area is known as Peehee Mu’huh – or Thacker Pass – and while it could be a lucrative resource for companies hoping to cash in on the electric vehicle revolution (lithium can be used to power rechargeable batteries), Hinkey and her peers say large-scale mining operations could irreversibly damage one of her community’s most sacred sites.“It’s like putting a lithium mine on Arlington cemetery. It’s just not fair,” she said. In 1865, a massacre took place at Thacker Pass, killing at least 31 members of the Paiute tribe. Hinkey’s great-great-great grandfather, Ox Sam, was one of three survivors. In addition to its historical significance, Thacker Pass also plays an important role in the everyday lives of local Indigenous communities; it’s the region where they harvest traditional foods, medicines and supplies for sacred ceremonies. Today, in order to guard the site, Hinkey and dozens of other local tribal members and descendants are camping near the proposed lithium mine, as a form of protest against extraction in the area. Some members of her coalition have gone so far as to quit their jobs to spend more time on-site. And while the number of campers varies from day to day, Hinkey said they plan to stay until the mine is halted. While she and her peers are also exploring legal options, the group remains unsure of what comes next – whether their protest can make a difference in Nevada, in an area poised to be extremely important to the transition away from fossil fuels. But they aren’t giving up. …The global lithium-ion battery market is expected to grow by a factor of five to 10 in the next decade, according to the Department of Energy, in part because of the soaring demand for electric vehicles, as well as its use in personal electronics and renewable energy storage.But despite having one of the largest lithium reserves in the world, the United States is not a major player in the extraction of the mineral. The Biden administration has called for an investment in “safe, equitable and sustainable domestic mining ventures”, as part of an effort to secure a larger share of the lithium-battery supply chain.Lithium Nevada, the company proposing the lithium mine, estimates that the project at Thacker Pass will produce roughly 60,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate a year once operational, increasing US production of the material roughly tenfold.“It’s a gamechanger,” says Tim Crowley, the vice-president of government affairs and community relations at Lithium Nevada. “It’s absolutely essential if we’re going to make America competitive and minimize the geopolitical challenges that we face in relying on other sources [of lithium].”
Switching to a pellet stove helps Maine in more ways than one - If Maine is going to achieve zero emissions by 2050, the state is going to have to change how it thinks about fuel. Wood pellets, made from the compressed leftovers of timber processing, can be burned as a cleaner alternative to fossil fuels, producing fewer carbon emissions than both oil and gas. With its abundance of trees, Maine is uniquely suited to have pellet fuel play a role in its journey to zero emissions because it keeps the fuel sources local, limits the emissions caused by transporting oil or gas and vitalizes Maine’s economy. Studies have shown that wood pellet fuel, which is also known as biomass, produces significantly fewer greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels. “It’s much better,” said William Strauss, president of FutureMetrics, a consulting firm for the pellet industry in Bethel. “Burning wood releases essentially carbon dioxide, but there’s no sulfur. Coal has sulfur in it, [so you have to] run these big scrubbers at the back end of the coal station to clean the sulfur out. Pellet stoves are also much cleaner than wood stoves in terms of particulate emissions.” Seventy percent of Maine households use heating oil to stay warm through the winter, the highest of any state. Replacing fossil fuel-based heating systems with pellet boilers would help to reduce fossil fuel consumption considerably in the state, Strauss said. “Maine is accustomed to having 68 percent of every dollar leave the state for energy,” said Les Otten, owner and co-Founder of Maine Energy Systems, which supplies homes with pellet boilers and pellets. “Maine’s forest from an energy standpoint is equal to Saudi Arabia’s oil fields, except our forest completely replenishes itself. It helps with decarbonization but it provides a tremendous amount of jobs.”
Lobbying blitz scores big wins for hydrogen - The hydrogen fuel industry has scored some key policy victories in recent months as it works to make itself part of the clean energy conversation being prioritized by President Biden and congressional Democrats. For years, hydrogen had been seen mainly as a niche fuel with limited possibilities for use in transportation. But that image is changing. Indeed, recent actions by Congress and within the Biden administration are inflating hydrogen’s balloon. The Department of Energy has made reducing the cost of hydrogen a priority through research and development. The bipartisan infrastructure bill will give the industry a production and transportation boost. And if the partisan reconciliation bill that passed the House this month can survive the Senate sausage-making, the sector will have a new tax credit to subsidize it. Those wins have come after a lobbying blitz from new coalitions that have been promoting hydrogen as a clean fuel, despite criticisms from some climate change activists and Democrats who label the effort as an attempt by the fossil fuel industry to expand its reach, to the detriment of the climate and public health. Hydrogen’s climate impacts depend mostly on the feedstock and energy sources used to create it. The different types of hydrogen include gray hydrogen, produced from natural gas by a process such as steam methane reformation, and green hydrogen, which is produced from water through electrolysis, using renewable energy. The industry, with the government’s help, is hoping to make hydrogen viable for numerous emerging uses, like the maritime shipping and long-haul aviation industries; certain industrial applications; and long-duration energy storage. One of the new lobbying efforts to promote hydrogen is the Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition, launched in March. Its president, Shannon Angielski, said it is “agnostic” about how hydrogen is produced, but also strives to make hydrogen cleaner, including cleaning up the electricity grid and encouraging carbon capture in the production process.
Hampden waste plant could be ‘rendered useless’ after natural gas shutoff - The $90 million Hampden waste plant that has been shut down since last year could be “rendered useless” if its natural gas service isn’t restored soon. That’s according to the Municipal Review Committee, which represents the 115 communities that sent their trash to the plant for about six months before it shut down in May 2020, unable to pay its expenses. The Municipal Review Committee has filed a petition with the Maine Public Utilities Commission to force Bangor Natural Gas to provide gas service to the trash processing plant off Cold Brook Road. The plant has been without natural gas as the weather has grown colder and the winter approaches, according to filings with the commission. The inability to secure gas service comes as the Municipal Review Committee and the bondholders who funded the plant’s construction attempt to sell the facility after it’s been dormant for more than a year-and-a-half and after their chosen buyer, Delta Thermo Energy, lost its exclusive right to purchase it this past summer as it struggled to secure financing. The Municipal Review Committee filed its petition on Nov. 17, more than two weeks after it requested a new account with the gas company on Nov. 1 to maintain gas service to the defunct plant for winter heating and to keep the facility in a condition that would allow for a sale. The group also warned of potential environmental damage if gas isn’t restored. “If the heat is not turned on at the Hampden facility and temperatures drop below freezing for any length of time, it is highly likely that there will be no plant to sell,” Municipal Review Committee Executive Director Michael Carroll said in an email to Bangor Natural Gas. Bangor Gas, which declined comment for this story due to pending litigation, refused to create that account. It said that Coastal Resources of Maine, which developed the plant and was its original operator, still owed it money from its time operating the plant, according to the filings with the utilities commission.
Why Texas ratepayers will be on the hook for utilities' big winter storm bills - When Grey Forest Utilities natural gas customer Thomas Weaver received his September gas bill, he noticed a $14.55 charge that was not normally there. Weaver was shocked to learn it was a charge that he and Grey Forest Utilities’ other 17,000 customers would be charged monthly — possibly for the next eight years — to pay back the cost of the natural gas Grey Forest Utilities purchased at a premium during February’s winter storm. Like many utilities across Texas, Grey Forest Utilities is on the hook for an unusually hefty bill from its gas provider, Koch Energy Services, for gas it supplied during the winter storm. Across Texas, utilities large and small — like CPS Energy and Grey Forest Utilities — are dealing with how to pay the exorbitant gas prices incurred during the winter storm. Grey Forest Utilities’ February natural gas bill, which is normally about $540,000, came out to $22 million. That’s because the Public Utilities Commission of Texas ordered the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the state’s electric grid and controls the flow of electric power to more than 26 million Texas customers, to put wholesale electricity prices at ERCOT’s cap of $9,000 per megawatt-hour. In comparison, electricity prices averaged $22 per megawatt-hour in 2020. ERCOT allowed prices to remain that high for about 77 hours, from midnight on Feb. 15 to the morning of Feb. 19. With a spike in electricity demand as Texans turned up the thermostat, and a dip in production as some infrastructure failed in the freezing temperatures, the amount of electricity in circulation on the grid dropped and utilities were charged the full $9,000 per megawatt-hour for about three days. Most Texas power plants are fueled by natural gas, which is either used to turn turbines or burned to turn steam engines to generate electricity. During the freeze, gas supply was diminished while electricity demand greatly outweighed supply. The supply or electricity available was further reduced with a shortage of natural gas production. Utilities that own their own power plants were forced to buy natural gas at about $400 to $500 mmBtu — about 400 times the regular price, as they sought to provide their customers with gas and/or electricity.
Why The Heck Are U.S. Power Plants Short On Coal? --It's the 1970's energy crisis all over again. Just like in the 1970's we have a massive surplus of energy. So how is there a shortage and how do we have higher prices? Power plants in the U.S. are actually running short on coal. Utilities and struggling and scrambling to get what they can, and winter is coming. LSOphoto How is this possible when, Wyoming for example, has hundreds of years worth of coal in Campbell County alone? Some politicians are trying to wean America off of coal. Yet despite what they say America, along with the rest of the world is using more if it, not less. In the video below you can hear "Climate Czar," John Kerry says that America will no longer be using coal by 2030. Yet American burns its coal CLEAN! U.S. coal plants are not wrecking our environment. We are not like China that just shoves it in the burner and lets it pollute. It's all about those blasted supply chain issues. We have the coal. Now can we just get it to the buyers?
Train derails after hitting barge along the Mississippi River in Lee County - Cleanup is still underway following a train derailment in southeast Iowa’s Lee County, near Montrose, along the banks of the Mississippi River. Caroline Davis, an environmental specialist with the Iowa DNR, says as hard as it may be to imagine, the freight train collided with a river barge shortly before midnight on Saturday. “There was a barge that was parked or very near shore,” Davis says. “It’s unknown whether that was because of weather at that time. They were calling it ‘fouling’ the tracks, so essentially over the tracks, and yeah, the train came by and ended up hitting the barge.” Davis says multiple coal cars were overturned and two diesel-powered locomotives derailed in the accident. “The BNSF folks said that approximately 1,400 gallons of diesel was spilled on the ballast material between two tracks,” Davis says, “and since that material is pretty porous, it has been seeping into the river.” Booms are floating in the river to keep as much diesel as possible from washing downstream, while Davis says “quite a bit” of fuel has already been siphoned up. Many tons of coal were also dumped into the river, which will be recovered, but Davis wasn’t certain how many coal cars overturned. “I believe it was four but I’m still unsure about that,” Davis says. “When I was out yesterday, several, maybe two or three cars were completely crumpled so it was difficult to tell the exact number.” There are no signs of a fishkill and an environmental assessment of the accident is underway. It’s unknown when that section of rail line will be able to reopen.
Trump rule meant to save coal is forcing plants to close - A wastewater rule the Trump administration pushed through as a Hail Mary for struggling coal plants is now being cited as a reason some of those same units are opting to close.Environmental advocates say tough economics are also fueling those decisions.Operators at more than two dozen coal plants across the nation, including some of the largest facilities in Pennsylvania, told state regulators that a federal wastewater regulation aimed at curbing high levels of toxic chemicals like mercury, arsenic, nitrogen and selenium is playing into their decision to close by 2028 or shift to natural gas, according to an analysis of regulatory filings the Sierra Club collected and analyzed.Specifically, 21 plants are closing and six more may switch to running on gas, and their owners are blaming — to different degrees — “effluent limitation guidelines,” also known as ELGs, that EPA finalized last year under the Trump administration. The Associated Press first reported the Sierra Club’s findings.At issue is a Trump-era rule that relaxed Obama-era limits on wastewater discharges from coal plants set in 2015 — the first time in more than 30 years the federal government acted to curb toxics and other pollutants from power plants (E&E News PM, July 26). Some coal plants use water to clean scrubbers and flush ash out of the bottom of boilers — waste that’s then dumped into settling ponds that can overflow into nearby waterways. The practice has made coal plants the largest source of toxic industrial wastewater pollution in the nation.Plant operators had until October to tell state regulators whether they planned to invest in water-cleansing technology to keep their coal units running, close them or follow through with upgrades to meet the federal standards so they can operate about 10 percent of the time. EPA said it does not track those decisions or filings.But advocates say that while coal-fired utilities are announcing their intent to close or shift to gas, those decisions are not firm commitments. And by making such an announcement, advocates say utilities are taking advantage of a loophole in the wastewater rule that allows them to avoid installing equipment to clean up wastewater and continue discharging wastewater for the next seven years. Advocates also say the majority of the coal plants were already facing daunting economic challenges that fueled their decision to ultimately close.“For some of them, the wastewater rule was the straw that broke the camel’s back,” said Casey Roberts, a senior attorney with the Sierra Club. “A lot of them are facing uphill economics, a lot of them have other environmental compliance issues and expenses coming up … and just competition from other resources.” “Overall, these power plants, many of them haven’t had to make any meaningful investments in upgrading their wastewater treatment for decades, and it’s been because of the utilities’ years of lobbying and litigation that they’ve delayed being required to modernize their wastewater treatment.”
Editorial: EPA deadline hastens coal plants' retirements -There’s no doubt coal is being replaced as a source of electricity. Recent events have reinforced that trend, but they shouldn’t mean coal will be eliminated entirely anytime soon. As reported by the Associated Press last week, dozens of plants nationwide plan to stop burning coal this decade to comply with more stringent federal wastewater guidelines, according to state regulatory êlings. A new wastewater rule requires power plants to clean coal ash and toxic heavy metals such as mercury, arsenic and selenium from their wastewater before it is dumped into streams and rivers. The rule is expected to aéect 75 coal-êred power plants nationwide, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Those plants had an October deadline to tell their state regulators how they planned to comply, with options that included upgrading their pollution-control equipment or retiring their coal-êred generating units by 2028. Also last week, HD Media’s Mike Tony reported that FirstEnergy, the electric utility that supplies most of northern West Virginia, is seeking approval from the Public Service Commission to build êve utility-scale solar energy projects throughout its state service territory. The facilities would generate 50 megawatts of renewable energy, but the projects would not displace the company’s current levels of coal-êred generation capacity in accordance with a 2020 state law disallowing renewable energy facilities from doing so. Utilities know there’s a market for renewables. Industrial and commercial customers want to distance themselves from fossil fuels, and they will pay to know that the electricity they pull from the grid comes from solar or wind sources. The downside for coal-producing regions is that every kilowatt that comes from burning gas or from solar or wind sources is a kilowatt that does not come from coal. There is no indication the trend is about to reverse. Opposition to coal-êred power means no new coal plants are likely to be built in the United States in the foreseeable future, no matter how many are retired
Watershed cleanup advocates fear new infrastructure law will limit WV's acid mine drainage treatment potential - Stewards of watersheds throughout Appalachia have a lot of cleaning up to do. First, though, they have a lot of clearing up to do — with potentially billions of dollars on the line. President Joe Biden signed into law a bipartisan infrastructure bill earlier this month that provides $11.29 billion for abandoned mine land and water cleanup projects. One of the feds’ goals for the investment in cleanup funding over 15 years in West Virginia and 24 other states is addressing acid mine drainage. “These funds support vitally needed jobs for coal communities by funding projects that close dangerous mine shafts, reclaim unstable slopes, improve water quality by treating acid mine drainage, and restore water supplies damaged by mining,” the U.S. Department of the Interior said in a news release on Nov. 9, four days after Congress passed the bill. But perceived limits in the legislation on states’ ability to restore streams toxi¦ed by acid mine drainage have worried abandoned mine cleanup advocates who see the new law as a missed opportunity to address devastating sources of environmental destruction. Friends of the Cheat, a Kingwood-based nonpro¦t working to restore the Cheat River watershed, criticized the legislation in a September email to the group’s followers. “[N]ew regulations concerning the distribution of funding leaves many streams and rivers, including the Cheat, in the lurch,” the group warned. In addition to decrying the legislation’s 20% reduction of fees levied on coal companies that fund the reclamation program for abandoned mine lands, the group lamented that the legislation wouldn’t allow spending on some of the watershed’s most problematic acid mine drainage sites. The group interpreted the bill as prohibiting funding to be spent on a key category of acid mine drainage sites and not allowing states to put funds in set-aside accounts that cover acid mine drainage treatment costs. So did Paul Johansen, chief of the West Virginia Division of Natural Resources’ Wildlife Resources Division, and state ¦sh and wildlife agency heads in Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Alabama, who urged chairmen of the U.S. House of Representatives Budget and Natural Resources committees to lift the apparent restrictions in an Aug. 26 letter. The bill had already passed the Senate earlier that month. The state ¦sh and wildlife agency heads urged House leadership to give states greater §exibility to “treat polluted water according to the highest needs of our people, ¦sh, and wildlife.” States and tribes rank abandoned mine land problems on a priority scale of 1 to 3 as de¦ned by federal law. Mine pollution problems ranked 1 and 2 are addressed ¦rst. Many mine cleanup advocates have concluded the infrastructure law would not allow funding to be used for addressing acid mine drainage in problem areas not adjacent to Priority 1 and 2 sites, pointing to language in the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 cited in the new law’s text.
The Convoluted Tale of U.S. Coal Ash Management --Sometime around midnight on Dec. 22, 2008, a dike at the coal ash dewatering pond for the Tennessee Valley Authority’s (TVA’s) 1,400-MW Kingston power plant in Roane County, Tennessee, failed. That led to what has been reported as the largest industrial spill in U.S. history.TVA and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initially estimated that the event released 1.7 million cubic yards of gray sludge. The EPA later upped the estimate to 5.4 million cubic yards. While there were no injuries, the spill damaged a score of private dwellings. The plume reached the Clinch River miles away (Figure 1). The event eventually cost TVA about $1 billion and took seven years to clean up.The Kingston coal ash spill also brought public attention to a problem that has long faced the coal and power industries: how to deal with what is left after coal and water have turned into steam and power. Despite increased regulatory scrutiny after the TVA event, spills of coal combustion residuals (CCRs) have continued.Ironically, about 10 years after the Kingston spill, on Sept. 2, 2018, floodwaters from Hurricane Florence caused a breach at the legacy coal ash disposal ponds at Duke Energy’s L.V. Sutton power station near Wilmington, North Carolina. The 575-MW coal-fired plant was retired and demolished in 2013, replaced by a 625-MW gas combined cycle plant, but the ash remained.The Sutton spill, small and quickly contained, came on top of a much larger coal ash release in February 2014 at Duke Energy’s 276-MW, 1949 vintage coal-fired Dan River plant, where the legacy coal pond suffered a 48-inch pipe failure, releasing some 50,000 to 82,000 tons of coal ash slurry into the Dan River. The plant had been shut in 2012.Peter Alvey, PE, who works for Roux, an environmental regulatory consulting firm that frequently assists companies that provide insurance to utility operations, was on the scene at both the Kingston and Dan River spills. He told POWER that the two big ash accidents kicked off the modern age of concern about managing coal combustion products (see sidebar). “TVA was the first,” he said. “Before that, ash ponds were just being used without much publicity. The Dan River released kicked off the environmental concerns about handling coal ash.”
Pilgrim nuclear plant may release radioactive water into Cape Cod Bay — One of the options being considered by the company that is decommissioning the closed Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station is to release around one million gallons of potentially radioactive water into Cape Cod Bay. The option had been discussed briefly with state regulatory officials as one possible way to get rid of water from the spent fuel pool,the reactor vessel and other components of the facility, Holtec International spokesman Patrick O'Brien said in an interview Wednesday. It was highlighted in a report by state Department of Environmental Protection Deputy Regional Director Seth Pickering at Monday's meeting of the Nuclear Decommissioning Citizens Advisory Panel in Plymouth. "We had broached that with the state, but we've made no decision on that," O'Brien said. As of mid-December, Holtec will complete the process of moving all the spent fuel rods into casks that are being stored on a concrete pad on the Pilgrim plant site in Plymouth. After that, O'Brien told the panel, the removal and disposal of other components in those areas of the facility will take place and be completed sometime in February. O'Brien said the remaining water used to cool the fuel rods in the pool and inside the reactor will be dealt with — the process to decide on a disposal method will get underway within the next six months to a year. Two other possible options discussed at Monday's meeting are trucking the water off-site to an approved facility, as Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Plant did in shipping its contaminated water to a site in Idaho or to evaporate it, a process that has already been employed in some areas of the Plymouth plant. Before they decide on any options, O'Brien said they would do an analysis to determine what contaminants the water contains. Likely, it will be metals and radioactive materials, he said.
Why California should reconsider shutting down its last nuclear plant, scientists say - Scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University have published a 113-page report outlining ways to retrofit California's Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant, which is currently scheduled to be decommissioned and closed in August 2025. The plan would save up to $21 billion in power grid costs if Diablo Canyon were kept open until 2050. In addition, keeping the plant open to 2050 would preserve 90,000 acres of land that would otherwise need to go to be covered in photovoltaic solar panels to meet California's climate goals. The scientists also propose that Diablo Canyon could be used as a site for a desalinization plant to provide much-needed water to the state, and a plant to produce hydrogen for use in clean-energy solutions. The report, entitled "An Assessment of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant for Zero-Carbon Electricity, Desalination, and Hydrogen Production" and published in November, is meant to spark new public conversations about the nuclear power plant's future. PG&E, the owner of Diablo Canyon, told CNBC it is not reconsidering its decision to decommission and close the plant. But the scientists behind the report hope another utility might take it over. "There have been many such changes of ownership of nuclear power plants in the U.S. over the years," said Jacopo Buongiorno, a nuclear science and engineering professor at MIT who co-led work on the report. Buongiorno started the project in Sept. 2020 with Sally Benson, a professor of energy resources engineering at Stanford University. The final report lists eight authors, including seven academics and one consultant from Lucid Catalyst, a clean energy and decarbonization strategy firm. "Funding for the study was all from internal university resources and philanthropic donations; no money from industry was sought or accepted," Buongiorno told CNBC. California lawmakers passed two regulations in 2018 requiring the state to shift to 100% carbon-neutral energy sources by 2045. That means the carbon-free electricity generated at Diablo Canyon could be worth billions, depending on how long the plant stays open. If Diablo Canyon were to operate between 2025, its current expiration, and 2035, the cumulative cost savings to the energy grid would be $2.6 billion, according to Ejeong Baik, a Ph.D candidate at Stanford who led the analysis on electricity. If Diablo were to operate through 2050, then the cumulative savings to the energy grid would be $21 billion. The cost savings come from reducing expenditures on natural gas, photovoltaic devices, and energy storage technology that would be needed to replace the electricity output of 2,240 megawatts that Diablo Canyon provides.
Wanted: A Town Willing to Host a Dump for U.S. Nuclear Waste - The Biden administration is looking for communities willing to serve as temporary homes for tens of thousands of metric tons of nuclear waste currently stranded at power plants around the country. The Energy Department filed a public noticeTuesday that it is restarting the process for finding a voluntary host for spent nuclear fuel until a permanent location is identified.
FirstEnergy says Ohio law at center of corruption probe protects it from ratepayer lawsuits -- Despite admitting to alleged bribes and unlawful activity that led to the passage of House Bill 6, FirstEnergy just argued that the law and orders under it shield the company from lawsuits from ratepayers. The argument came in a class action lawsuit brought on behalf of ratepayers who are or will be subject to higher rates as a result of House Bill 6. Nuclear subsidies and recession-proofing provisions for utilities have since been repealed. But ratepayers are still subject to the law’s provisions for subsidies for two old coal plants. The law gutted the state’s clean energy standards as well. If plaintiffs win, all Ohio ratepayers could potentially benefit. “What’s unique about this case is the company has admitted to having committed a crime and has admitted that some of the decisions that came out of the [Public Utilities] Commission may well have been induced by bribery,” The amended complaint says the defendants violated the Racketeer Influenced Corrupt Organizations Act, or RICO, as well as the Ohio Corrupt Activity Act. The named defendants are FirstEnergy, FirstEnergy Service Company, Energy Harbor and several current and former officers. The plaintiffs seek compensatory damages, triple damages, attorney fees and other relief, such as a ruling that HB 6 is unlawful.FirstEnergy argued last year that the court couldn’t grant relief based on a “filed-rate doctrine.” In general, courts respect the rates set in state utility cases. However, Judge Edmund Sargus ruled last winter, the argument doesn’t apply to payments outside of the usual ratemaking process. Also, he wrote, HB 6 played an overriding role. HB 6 is Ohio’s nuclear and coal bailout law. FirstEnergy renewed the argument on Nov. 19, saying it made filings with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio after being told to do so because of HB 6. But, Brown said, the PUCO’s orders under HB 6 are themselves under a cloud of alleged corruption. FirstEnergy has admitted it paid $4.3 million to a company controlled by Sam Randazzo shortly before he became PUCO chair, with the understanding that he would take official action for the company’s benefit. Randazzo has denied wrongdoing. In Brown’s view, FirstEnergy’s admissions forfeited any protection that a filed-rate doctrine might have given it. They also raise questions about the PUCO’s integrity. “How can we respect the filed rate when the rate was derived from corruption?” Brown asked. Even after news of the scandal broke in mid-2020, the PUCO didn’t conduct a full investigation into alleged corruption and all of FirstEnergy’s actions relating to HB 6, he noted. Among other things, its staff told prospective corporate separation auditors not to include HB 6 in the scope of their work.
Ohio energy industry remains cautious despite high prices, rising demand - -- The future is currently looking bright for the energy industry in eastern Ohio as the price for gasoline and natural gas remains high around the country. "For gasoline, the price at the pump is the highest it has been since 2014, on average," said Mike Chadsey, director of public relations for the Ohio Oil and Gas Association. "We also know that natural gas prices are up, we also know that crude oil prices are up, and really one of the most fundamental reasons why is that energy demand is rising as we come out of the COVID lock-down of last year. "Demand is rising but the energy supply is not rising at the same rate. So that's kind of the squeeze right there." That has had a dramatic impact on the oil and gas industry in Ohio, but companies remain cautious. "We are seeing producers being very responsible with capital," Chadsey said. "It isn't the free-for-all that it was a couple of years ago in terms of drilling. "They're being mindful of that. We also don't know what tomorrow brings from the Biden administration in terms of methane taxes, climate change policy, so it's a little bit of wait and see. It's also fiscal responsibility, drilling within your means." The industry remains strong in the Buckeye State. There are around 10 to 12 drilling rigs operating in Ohio. For much of this year, there had only been three or four rigs, he said. Currently, there are 3,145 Utica Shale play wells in production in Ohio. And, according to JobsOhio, there are about 208,000 Ohioans employed in the oil and gas industry, more than the rest of the country combined. One of the biggest players in eastern Ohio is Ascent Resources, the largest producer of natural gas in Ohio. The Oklahoma City-based company has its local headquarters in Cambridge. It operates primarily in Belmont, Jefferson, Guernsey, Harrison and Noble counties. Chadsey said Ascent and other companies are focusing on Jefferson County because it's in the natural gas window. Prices are up, the infrastructure is in place and there's a big demand for natural gas as the country enters the winter heating season. The industry is also very active in Harrison and Carroll counties. Another player in the region is Encino Energy, a Houston, Texas, company with local offices in Stark County. “We have added another rig this year, but it’s important to note that we’ve had two rigs consistently running since our acquisition in 2018," said Jackie Stewart, director of external affairs for the company.
Turkish mining group picks region for new plant - When CS Global Group was looking around the United States to locate a plant, the Turkish manufacturer and distributor knew it wanted river and rail access. While it looked in other states, CS Global found what it was looking for along the Ohio River in Moundsville, West Virginia. Its product is barium sulfate, which is an ingredient in the fluids that are used to drill oil and natural gas wells. It’s also used in paint, fireworks, brake linings and X-ray imaging. Through one of its other subsidiaries, CS Global distributes barium sulfate and the CS Mining subsidiary creates the barite. The new plant in Moundsville will produce barium sulfate to be shipped to oil and gas drilling sites, particularly in Canada. CS Global announced in September it would invest nearly $10 million in the expansion, which will eventually employ 47 people and be open sometime in the first half of 2022.
13 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Nov 22-28 | Marcellus Drilling News - It seems as if Pennsylvania has been on a yo-yo lately. Three weeks ago PA issued just two permits to drill new shale wells. Two weeks ago PA issued 15 permits! And now, for last week (Nov. 22-28), PA flipped back to just two new permits again. What’s going on? Did the DEP take most of last week off for the Thanksgiving holiday? Perhaps. Ohio pulled our region’s bacon out of the fire by issuing 11 new permits last week for Utica shale wells. West Virginia drillers got skunked with zero new permits last week. All totaled there were just 13 new permits issued last week in the M-U, down from 32 the week before. (3 embedded tables)
State report shows strong natural gas production growth in 2021 - After a bruising year in 2020, natural gas production and prices in Pennsylvania are on the rise this year. The state’s Independent Fiscal Office’s latest Natural Gas Production report shows Pennsylvania drillers are producing more natural gas while slowing the rate at which they drill new wells. Using data from the Department of Environmental Protection, the IFO’s report shows the production rate grew by 6.8 percent from July to September, compared to the same period last year. The growth rate for new wells was flat. An uptick in production in Washington, Bradford, Lycoming and Wyoming counties made up more than 100 percent of the statewide increase. Through August of this year, the commonwealth had the strongest year-over-year growth of any top-five gas-producing state at 7.7 percent. Pennsylvania made up 18.7 percent of nationwide production through August. If that holds, it would be the state’s highest share on record. Related Content The number one producer, Texas, saw a 2.5 percent decrease in production this year. The IFO said Pennsylvania’s average gas prices have risen to their highest levels in several years to reach $3.54 per metric million British thermal units. That’s up 187 percent from the same time last year. The IFO said it’s due to the combination of weaker-than-usual supply growth and demand rebounding from closures related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Pennsylvania Natural Gas Production Continues Growing at Pre-Pandemic Levels - Pennsylvania’s unconventional natural gas production grew at pre-pandemic rates through the first nine months of the year as prices and demand rebounded, according to the state’s Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The IFO said unconventional production came in at 1.884 Tcf in 3Q2021, or 6.8% higher than the year-ago period, resembling the strong rates of the first and second quarters. Appalachian producers made price-related curtailments throughout 2020 as they grappled with low demand in the United States and across the world that helped to force production down across the country. As Covid-19 restrictions have eased and lower supplies have squeezed the market, producers in Pennsylvania have slowly brought back volumes throughout the year. Through August, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cited by the IFO shows that Pennsylvania had the strongest year/year production growth rate of any of the nation’s top producing states at 7.7%.While the market has improved, oil and gas producers continue to exercise capital discipline that has curbed natural gas output in places like Texas and Oklahoma, according to EIA data cited by IFO. Meanwhile, volumes in other top-producing states grew at rates closer to 2% through the first eight months of the year, the IFO said. The IFO said Henry Hub prices averaged $4.28/MMBtu in 3Q2021, up 120% from the year-ago period, when Pennsylvania’s unconventional production grew at the lowest annual growth rate on record. The IFO also said spot prices in Pennsylvania jumped 187% year/year in the third quarter to average $3.54/MMBtu. Prices are forecast to stay high through the winter and into early next year as storage levels aren’t as strong as they have been in years past and global demand for liquefied natural gas remains strong amid a supply shortage.The IFO noted that there were 10,665 producing horizontal wells in the state during the third quarter, up 5.4% from the year-ago period. Horizontal wells account for about 99% of the state’s unconventional production, while vertical wells drilled to unconventional formations make up a marginal share.Growth in producing wells in the state has largely dropped over the last 16 quarters and hit its lowest rate earlier this year. Decelerating growth in producing wells, IFO said, is due to less drilling activity and older wells being shut-in or plugged.
Natural gas industry seeking students - Lackawanna College School of Petroleum and Natural Gas is one of only three of its kind in the whole country, and it is looking for new students. Later this week, Northern Tier Industry & Education Consortium, a non-profit that works to bridge the gap for students between school and the workforce, is hosting an open house at the college’s brand new facility in Tunkhannock. “The jobs are here. They’re not going anywhere, and you don’t need a 4-year degree to be able to work in the gas industry,” said Debbie Tierney, NTIEC. And that is why the program needed to expand. Lackawanna College School of Petroleum and Natural Gas just opened its new facility in August. The program can now accept 60 students. That is twice as many as before. The school has a nearly 100% job placement rate. “This program in 2 years, it’s a life-changer. It makes dreams come true. I’ve seen all of the students come through this program, and it’s just very rewarding, and I just want to get the word out,” said Sue Gumble, Program Director for Lackawanna College School of Petroleum and Natural Gas. High school students from any district in the area are invited to attend the Open House on Wednesday evening. Students can sit in on classes and talk to teachers. “They’ll also be able to talk to current students and past students. So they’re not going to hear it just from us of what a great program this is. They’re actually going to be able to talk to the people who came here, have graduated from here, and who are working locally in the industry,” Tierney said.
Marcellus shale natural gas driller proposes compressor station in Upper Burrell - Olympus Energy is seeking state approval to develop a Marcellus shale natural gas compressor station in Upper Burrell, off White Cloud Road on undeveloped industrial property owned by Arconic. Olympus Energy of Canonsburg has three well pads to tap natural gas in the Marcellus shale rock formation approved by the township and state Department of Environmental Protection in various stages of development. The compressor station, known as the Rogers compressor, is proposed near the Calliope well pad site, also off White Cloud Road. The proposed station is strategically located to maintain the pressure and flow of the natural gas to take it to the market, said Kimberly Price, Olympus spokeswoman. The company has applications pending with the DEP, including one for an air permit, she said. Next steps would include submitting plans to township officials. “Throughout this process, Olympus will also be working to address the questions and concerns of nearby residents,” she said. The planning commission will review the proposal and make recommendations to township supervisors, who will have final say on approval, township Solicitor Steve Yakopec said. Residents such as Dan Myers want to learn more. “How much noise will the compressor station make? This is a noise that won’t be going away,” Myers said. He also wants to know more about the facility’s emissions.
Danskammer power plant appeals DEC’s denial of permit - Danskammer Energy on Wednesday announced it is appealing the denial of its air permit to build and operate a new natural gas-fired power plant and generation facility near Newburgh, calling the decision “unjustified.” The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) on Oct. 27 struck down the proposed Danskammer project in mid-Hudson Valley, saying the project did not comply with the state’s new climate law. The decision marked a precedent-setting moment in the implementation of the state’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), which passed in 2019 and calls for sharp reductions in the use of fossil fuels, such as the natural gas that would power the Danskammer facility.The DEC also denied a permit for Astoria Gas Turbine Power in Queens. The two proposed plants would “interfere with the statewide greenhouse gas emissions limits established in the Climate Act,” said DEC Commissioner Basil Seggos in a statement on Oct. 27.“We believe DEC is holding Danskammer to standards that don’t even exist because the Climate Action Council has yet to issue guidance on what it means to be consistent with the State’s new climate law,” said Bill Reid, CEO of Danskammer Energy LLC, in a press release.The energy company had been seeking authorization to construct a new power generation facility near the Town of Newburgh in Orange County and submitted its application to the DEC in December 2019.
New York Utilities Polarize Over Push to Ban Natural Gas - A top provider of natural gas to New York City is quietly supporting a fight to ban gas hookups in new buildings. Con Edison sells both gas and electricity in New York, where it is counting on higher electric demand in winter months as it backs activists’ efforts to eliminate fossil fuels in new housing and commercial developments. The investor-owned utility has lobbied the City Council to pass Bill 2317, which would prohibit developers from piping oil or gas into new construction projects or major renovations as soon as this year.“They’re putting down some specific industry lies,” said Pete Sikora, a climate campaigner who has led activist efforts to decarbonize buildings. “It’s very, very useful.”The stance pits ConEd against national lobbyists for the oil industry, and against local real estate interests fighting to slow the phaseout of gas.“It’s becoming a common pattern,” said Leah Stokes, an environmental policy professor at University of California, Santa Barbara who testified at a recent hearing on the ban. “Combined gas and electric utilities have been realizing that electrification is an opportunity.”Not all energy companies are convinced. All-gas utilities are resisting efforts to phase out the fuel, and in some states are trying to head them off.The city’s other main gas provider, National Grid, has opposed the ban, though in what activists say is a break with more aggressive past tactics, its criticism has been comparatively muted.
North American Pipeline Project Roundup: November/December 2021 - Project Roundup is a monthly feature that summarizes the contracts awarded for pipeline projects in North America. The following oil and gas pipeline contracts have been announced. Projects are in order of most recent approximate starting date. All listings are for 2021 unless noted. (excerpts from list of ~ 2 dozen)
- InterCon Construction Inc. was awarded a contract by Apex Pipeline Services Inc. to install approximately 1,100 ft of 24-in. pipeline via horizontal directional drilling in Tyler County, West Virginia.
- InterCon Construction Inc. was awarded a contract by C.J. Hughes Construction/Mountaineer Gas to install approximately 500 ft of 12-in. pipeline in Berkely County, West Virginia.
- Minnesota Limited LLC was awarded a contract by Dakota Carrier Network to install approximately 2,500 ft of 8-in. pipeline in Cass County, North Dakota. .
- U.S. Pipeline Inc. was awarded a contract by Williams – Transcontinental Gas Co. for various anomaly investigations in York County, Pennsylvania. Headquarters
- Dun Transportation & Stringing Inc. was awarded a contract by H&S Constructors Inc. for a project to load, haul, and string approximately 8 miles of 16-in. pipe in Eddy County, New Mexico.
- Apex Pipeline Services was awarded a contract by TC Energy for the abandonment of approximately 500 ft of pipeline and building demolition in Jackson County, Ohio.
- InfraSource Construction Inc. was awarded a contract by Washington Gas & Light for the abandonment of approximately 1,600 ft of various size pipelines from 4 to 26 in. and a regulator station, install 70 ft of 30-in. and 30 ft of 24-in. pipeline, three 24-in. pipeline stoppers 10 2-in. drill nipples and three gauge line risers replacements in Montgomery and Prince Georges counties, Maryland, and Washington, D.C.
- Minnesota Limited LLC was awarded a project contract by CenterPoint Energy for a 10- and 6-in. launcher barrel installation in Piqua County, Ohio. Headquarters is Piqua, Ohio. .
River partners remove 19th century oil pipeline from Musconetcong River -Remnants of nine old oil pipelines have been removed from the Wild and Scenic Musconetcong River. The completion was announced on Thursday, Nov. 18, according to a joint statement from The National Park Service (NPS), the Chevron Environmental Management Company (Chevron), the Musconetcong River Management Council (MRMC), and theMusconetcong Watershed Association (MWA).Investigating complaints of pipelines protruding from the river bottom, the MWA and the NPS found that in low flows, the pipelines could come into contact with the bottoms of canoes and kayaks. Working with Chevron, it was determined the pipelines were no longer in use and had been filled with cement and capped. The pipelines, some dating back to the 1880s, are believed to be some of the oldest petroleum pipelines in the United States. While the pipelines posed no pollution threat to the river, they remained a navigational impediment for paddlers.“The National Park Service Wild and Scenic Rivers program seeks to protect and enhance river resources across the nation,” said NPS River Manager Paul Kenney. “We appreciate the work of our river partners to help improve the recreational and ecological quality of the Wild and Scenic Musconetcong River and are excited for the paddling community to enjoy this exceptional river without these obstacles.”
If the gasholder building comes down, unknown pollution might rise up - Fans of Concord’s gasholder builder want to save the historic structure because of how it looks above the ground, but there’s an underground reason to keep it intact, as well. In one talk James Wieck of GZA GeoEnvironmental discussed ongoing efforts to preserve the 1888 gasholder, including monitoring subsurface pollution that was left behind by a century of processing coal to create a flammable gas, which was used for building heat in Concord before natural gas pipelines arrived in 1952. The round brick building that held this gas has been empty for years and is in danger of falling apart. The main pollution problem goes by the inelegant acronym DNAPL. This stands for dense nonaqueous phase liquids, in this case tar-like byproducts of coal processing that seeped into the ground during decades of storage and handling, threatening groundwater. Most of the toxins were dug up and removed from the 2.4-acre site decades ago. But material had already oozed underground beyond the property boundaries, mostly to the east and south toward the Merrimack River, although it does not appear to be spreading any longer. A series of monitoring wells have been dug to keep track of the spread and two wells are removing material that is found, he said. “It’s under 10 gallons over the course of a year – not much.” The monitoring will continue until the New Hampshire groundwater quality standards are met, and tar will be recovered as long as it is present in the wells where it is being recovered. As for the gasholder building itself, however, there’s more uncertainty. The building held manufactured coal gas under a floating cap that is 88 feet in diameter and weighs many tons. The gas was pumped in from the manufacturing building and held there, trapped between the cap and water, until it was used by downtown buildings for heat. The cap rose and sank depending on how much gas was stored at the time. Its weight provided pressure that sent the gas through pipelines to customers. The gasholder’s historic importance comes from the fact that the cap and associated machinery is still intact. Many other gasholder buildings exist around the country, including a small one at St. Paul’s School, but this appears unique in still having all its machinery.
Air pollution impacts of Mountain Valley Pipeline extension compressor station to be considered at public meetings -- Lambert Compressor Station would worsen air quality issues in communities of colorThe Virginia Air Pollution Control Board will meet December 2 and 3 in Chatham, VA to consider an air quality permit for a proposed compressor station needed to extend the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline into North Carolina. The Board will hear limited public comment on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.If built, the Lambert Compressor Station in Pittsylvania County, Virginia would pump fracked gas into the Southgate extension of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which has drawn growing grassroots opposition from environmental justice advocates, like the NAACP. Environmental reviews found building the compressor station would mean higher levels of carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, formaldehyde and other volatile organic compounds. These substances are known to contribute to asthma and other respiratory problems, heart disease, cancer, and other health problems for community members living near them. Mountain Valley Pipeline took a narrow view of the impacts of this pollution and failed to account for impacts to people of color and/or low income families living near the proposed station.Environmental concerns have already led the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality to twice deny a water permit for the proposed 74-mile Southgate project. The Southgate project is still without this crucial permit, which is necessary for any construction to begin. The MVP mainline is billions of dollars over budget, three years behind schedule, and has racked up more than $2 million in fines for water quality-related violations in Virginia and West Virginia.
Chatham residents and others to speak against Lambert Compressor Station at air board hearing – Appalachian Voices -Beginning on Dec. 2 at 1 p.m., the State Air Pollution Control Board will consider an air quality permit for the Lambert Compressor Station proposed for Pittsylvania County at a thrice-delayed public hearing in Chatham, Virginia. The hearing will continue on Dec. 3 at 9:30 a.m.The Lambert Compressor Station would be the only compressor station for MVP Southgate, a proposed 73-mile extension of the unfinished 303-mile fracked-gas Mountain Valley Pipeline. It would be the third compressor station located on Transco Road.Compressor stations, which help maintain pressure and flow of the natural gas in pipelines, can be significant sources of pollution, emitting carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, fine particulate matter, sulfur dioxides and volatile organic compounds, among other harmful substances.“Why us? Why in our backyard? Why in the Banister District in Chatham in Pittsylvania County?” asked Elizabeth Jones, who chairs the environmental justice committee of the Pittsylvania County Branch of the NAACP, during an online meeting in August. “It’s because there is very little resistance. … This is an environmental justice issue.”Jones noted that Banister District is predominantly African-American. She lives on a farm near the site of the proposed compressor station with her husband Anderson, who spoke during the meeting about the farm that’s been in his family for 98 years. “The Jones family farm is one of the beautiful areas in Chatham,” he said. “We used to have cows, hogs, chickens. We had fruit trees. We had a wonderful farm and the land was very fertile. The pipelines have come in and destroyed the beautiful landscape. You just need to look at what they have done to it.” Only people who submitted public comments during the original comment period earlier this year will be allowed to speak at the public hearing. “Our members and others from Southern Virginia are facing a 300-mile, 6-hour round trip, and a 1- or 2-night stay in order to attend the meeting,” wrote President Anita Royston in a letter to DEQ. “Given the current set-up, we can only speak — and listen — if we make the trip.”
Bill blocking NC governments from banning natgas heads to governor’s desk - North Carolina came closer Monday to joining 20 other states around the country in passing legislation that will prevent local governments from banning the use of energy sources, like natural gas, in new construction or renovations. House Bill 220 would formally prevent local governments in North Carolina from banning natural gas in new or renovated buildings. No local governments in North Carolina have moved to ban the use of natural gas in construction, and environmental groups called for Gov. Roy Cooper to veto the legislation moments after the House voted to concur. The bill also includes a provision exempting design or vulnerability information about infrastructure, such as electric facilities, water treatment and water outfalls, from public record. Monday, Sen. Paul Newton told the Senate Rules Committee that HB 220 is in response to legislation passed by some local governments in California and other parts of the country that banned natural gas or propane as part of an effort to electrify homes and buildings. “The primary purpose of this bill is to reaffirm that we make energy policy at the state level. Local government units do not,” Newton, a Cabarrus County Republican, said Monday during the Senate Rules Committee. The N.C. Senate voted 29 to 17 in favor of a revised version of HB 220 on Monday, followed by the House voting 56 to 47 to concur. Next, it will head to Cooper’s desk.
Georgia environmental regulators propose $3 million fine for Golden Ray pollution - The state’s Environmental Protection Division is proposing a $3 million fine against a South Korean logistics company for polluting the sea and salt marshes on the Georgia coast after the Golden Ray car carrier capsized in St. Simons Sound on Sept. 8, 2019.State environmental regulators are accepting public comments until Dec. 23 on their proposed consent order to penalize Hyundai Glovis Co. for discharging pollutants and debris without a permit in one of the largest maritime disasters in American history.The $3 million fine would be a relatively small price compared to the cost of the snakebit shipwreck cleanup project, where estimates of the tab that will be footed by the company and insurer are in the $1 billion range. Environmentalists said Monday that the punishment from the fine is not nearly as significant as holding the company accountable for damages.The approval order also says that the company will have to follow an approved Environmental Assessment and Response Plan after the Coast Guard-led incident response finishes the shipwreck response and overseeing pollution control. If Hyundai submits a plan that wins EDP approval for another environmental project, its fine could be reduced.Susan Inman, of the Brunswick-based environmental group One Hundred Miles, said the ship’s oil leaks can have some lasting effects on estuaries and waterways in the area.Although the Golden Ray has been removed from the water, there is still oil that seeps to the surface as debris is removed from the water, Inman said.
Georgia Proposed $3 Million Pollution Fine for Golden Ray’s Operators - A month after the removal of the last section of the Golden Ray wreck and with debris removal efforts expected to wind down in St. Simmons Sound, Georgia environmental officials have moved to implement a fine for the environmental damage caused by the Ro-Ro that rolled over after departing the port of Brunswick, Georgia. The state’s environmental authority posted notice of the proposed enforcement action published on November 23 with a one-month comment period. The action proposes a $3 million settlement to be paid by Hyundai Glovis, operators of the Golden Ray at the time of the accident. Georgia’s Environmental Protection Division alleges that pollutants, debris, and petroleum products were discharged from the Golden Ray into waters beginning on September 8, 2019, through the effective date of this consent order. “Upon the termination of the Unified Command incident response, the respondent shall implement the approved Environmental Assessment and Response Plan,” according to the notice. Within one year of the execution of this consent order, Hyundai Glovis must pay a civil penalty or elect to submit a plan for a proposed supplemental environmental project. If they elect to propose further remediation efforts, the company might obtain a reduction in the civil penalty. Following the accident, response teams sought to mitigate oil leaks from the vessel. The Unified Command strung a barrier around the site and developed teams to mitigate further oil leaks from the vessel during the salvage operations. The team reported that they expected additional oil leaks during the removal operations as well as regular monitoring and removing various debris that washed up during the operations. The last significant oil leak happed at the end of July into early August 2021 as the operation went to remove one of the last sections of the vessel. Both during the weight shedding process and then when they began to raise section six fuel oil leaked into the water and was able to escape the protective barrier. Teams worked to contain the spill and clean reside from the shoreline. In early August, the salvage team located and capped a vent pipe which they said was the source of the most significant leak since the salvage operation had begun.
Students, residents protest natural gas plant on University of Florida’s campus - Protesters are opposing a natural gas plant that may be coming to the University of Florida’s campus. “Don’t pass gas,” protesters chanted. Their mission was to bring awareness and get the UF board of trustees to postpone building the plant until lawmakers allow more solar energy at UF. The steam plant would help heat and cool buildings on campus. “But as far as the repercussions of it, obviously natural gas is not a sustainable resource,” organizer Mackenzie Griffin said. “It produces carbon emissions which contribute to global warming which takes away from our future as students here. We have a long future ahead of us and we want to keep it nice and beautiful.” Grace Lear said she believes students were in the dark about the plant. “Just from a student perspective, we would just like more transparency from UF at this point. They kind of hid this from us for a very long time and planned it during the pandemic which as students we all weren’t here so they were kind of suppressing our voices and there’s been all kinds of issues going around.” The board of trustees is set to discuss whether they’ll move forward with the plant this Thursday and Friday.
‘Don’t pass gas’: Students, residents protest natural gas plant on University of Florida’s campus --- Protesters are opposing a natural gas plant that may be coming to the University of Florida’s campus. “Don’t pass gas,” protesters chanted. Their mission was to bring awareness and get the UF board of trustees to postpone building the plant until lawmakers allow more solar energy at UF. The steam plant would help heat and cool buildings on campus. “But as far as the repercussions of it, obviously natural gas is not a sustainable resource,” organizer Mackenzie Griffin said. “It produces carbon emissions which contribute to global warming which takes away from our future as students here. We have a long future ahead of us and we want to keep it nice and beautiful.” Grace Lear said she believes students were in the dark about the plant. “Just from a student perspective, we would just like more transparency from UF at this point. They kind of hid this from us for a very long time and planned it during the pandemic which as students we all weren’t here so they were kind of suppressing our voices and there’s been all kinds of issues going around.” The board of trustees is set to discuss whether they’ll move forward with the plant this Thursday and Friday.
The Spire STL natural gas pipeline and the new challenge to already-built assets. --Determining whether to approve plans for interstate natural gas pipeline projects has never been an easy task for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. There are so many things to consider, chief among them the need for the pipeline, impacts on the environment and landowners along the route, and what it all means for gas customers. But as complicated as the decision-making process may be, at least pipeline developers, gas producers, and customers knew that once a new pipeline was approved by FERC, permitted, built, and put into service that the matter was closed — that is, the pipeline was here to stay. Now, in the wake of a groundbreaking court ruling on a new gas pipeline near St. Louis, things are not so certain. As it turns out, we’re intimately familiar with the matter, having just made the case that the 65-mile Spire STL Pipeline is an important addition to the regional pipeline network that provides supply diversity, improved reliability, and access to lower-cost gas. In today’s RBN blog, we consider the evolution of FERC regulation of gas pipelines and the new uncertainty that all affected parties face.
Cost of natural gas to double this winter for Spire customers -Spire customers in Joplin and elsewhere in Southwest Missouri will pay twice as much for natural gas this winter. That doesn’t mean their bill will double, because the cost of the gas is only part of the bill, along with other customer charges, but it is the largest part of the bill — between 50% and 55%, according to regulators — and customers should still expect increases in their monthly bills, said Jason Merrill, spokesman for Spire. The change means an increase of about $24.36 per month, or 41.5%, for the typical natural gas residential customer, defined as someone an average of 60 to 65 ccf per month. A ccf is a hundred cubic feet of natural gas and a unit to measure usage. The Missouri Public Service Commission this week approved the increase, which takes effect Tuesday. “The gas is a straight pass through; it is not something we profit off of. The cost of natural gas has gone up throughout the Midwest and Missouri is no different. ... What we pay for the gas is what a customer pays for the gas,” Merrill said.
Longmeadow Select Board questions Eversource on pipeline project – The Longmeadow Select Board put representatives from Eversource through extensive questioning about the pipeline project that has been proposed to run through Longmeadow. During a three-hour public meeting on Nov. 15, Eversource answered many questions, but the Select Board and residents expressed several concerns that went unaddressed. The meeting began with a presentation from Joseph Mitchell, a human relations specialist at Eversource, on the proposed pipeline project. “It is our goal to do as much outreach as possible to have the community aware of our proposed project We want to receive their feedback,” Mitchell said. He explained that greater Springfield receives its gas from a 70-year-old pipeline that joins with a Tennessee Gas pipeline in Agawam, runs under Memorial Bridge into Springfield and to a point-of-delivery (POD) station on Bliss Street. If anything were to happen to that line, Mitchell said, 40,000 customers east of the Connecticut River, and potentially 18,000 on the west side, would be without gas. Mitchell said gas outages last much longer than electrical outages and it could be between one and two months for complete service restoration. He painted a picture of families without heat in the winter, frozen pipes, water damage to homes and businesses and the disruption of workers needing to enter people’s homes to restore their gas service. “We want to bring a second independent source to supply our customers,” Mitchell told the Select Board and residents watching the meeting. The new line, which he emphasized was for reliability and not new customers, would branch off an existing Tennessee Gas line running west to east in Longmeadow near the Connecticut border and feed a new POD to be built on land at the Longmeadow Country Club. From there, a 16-inch pipeline would run along one of four routes.
Caddo Commissioner Ken Epperson chipping away at oil, natural gas drilling noise issues— Oil and natural gas drilling issues persist in parts of Caddo Parish, despite residents’ complaints. Caddo Commissioner Ken Epperson has been chipping away at the drilling noises for years. In July, we told you how Pine Wave’s drilling well was affecting Twilight Meadows neighbors. Now, Goodrich Petroleum Corp. has opened a well about two miles down the road. “That is our major concern, that they want to drill in our communities,” said Glenn Moore, who lives right in front of the new well. He said they started drilling about two weeks ago. “I didn’t know they were putting a pad so close to us. I knew it was coming somewhere, but I didn’t know how close it was coming.” Since July, several residents have spoken at Caddo Commission meetings during the public comment period. “I’m a retired person. I don’t want to hear all that noise. I don’t want to breathe the dust that comes with it,” Moore said during a meeting held July 22. During a teleconference meeting earlier this year, parish Public Works Director Tim Weaver said the oil and natural gas industry is booming in Caddo. “Oil and gas is the strongest I’ve seen it in Caddo Parish since the Haynesville Shale.” Resident Murdis Dodd described the drilling, saying it was ”like an airplane is landing in my back yard.”
Exclusive: Arbor Gas CEO details Beaumont project --Now that Arbor Renewable Gas officially has announced its intentions to develop the Spindletop Plant in Beaumont, the company is shifting gears to focus on construction. The Beaumont Enterprise sat down with Arbor Gas CEO Tim Vail to discuss the coming $350 million investment, and breakdown why the company sees Southeast Texas as the perfect launching pad for high-level biofuels. Arbor Renewable Gas announced earlier this month that it was moving forward with its plans to build a renewable gasoline plant on a 53-acre industrial park property on Texas 347 at the border of Beaumont and Nederland. The company expects to start construction on its new Spindletop Plant by the first half of 2022, with completion estimated for late 2023. It’s not the first time Vail and most of his crew have worked on a project in Beaumont, as several of the key principals involved with Arbor Renewable Gas have experience with Beaumont’s Natgasoline methanol production facility.Vail said the group was already deeply familiar with the infrastructure assets available at the industrial site that would make an investment like the Spindletop Plant incredibly efficiency and cost-effective, but there also was something more attractive than good real estate.
In shadow of Texas gas drilling sites, health fears escalate — At a playground outside a North Texas day care, giggling preschoolers chase each other into a playhouse. Toddlers scoot by on tricycles. Just uphill, Total Energies is pumping for natural gas. The French energy giant wants to drill three new wells on the property next to Mother’s Heart Learning Center, which serves mainly Black and Latino children. The wells would lie about 600 feet from where the children play. The prospect is raising fears among families and the surrounding community. Living too close to drilling sites has been linked to a range of health risks from asthma to neurological and developmental disorders. And while some states require energy companies to drill farther from day cares and homes, Texas has made it difficult for localities to fight back. On Tuesday night, the Arlington City Council voted 5-4 to approve Total’s latest drilling request, with expected final approval in the weeks to come. Last year, the council denied Total’s request at a time when Black Lives Matter protests after George Floyd’s murder by police led many American communities to take a deeper look at racial disparities. But with some turnover on the City Council, many residents worried Total would succeed this time.“I’m trying to protect my little one,” said Guerda Philemond, whose 2-year-old daughter attends the day care. “There’s a lot of land, empty space they can drill. It doesn’t have to be in the back yard of a day care.” Total declined a request for an interview, but in a statement said it has operated near Mother’s Heart for more than a decade without any safety concerns expressed by the City of Arlington.The clash in Arlington comes as world leaders pledge to burn less fossil fuel and transition to cleaner energy. Yet the world’s reliance on natural gas is growing, not declining. As a result, there will likely be more drilling in Arlington and other communities. And children who spend time near drilling sites or natural gas distribution centers — in neighborhoods that critics call “sacrifice zones” — may face a growing risk of developing neurological or learning problems. Scientific studies have found that the public health risks associated with these sites include cancers, asthma, respiratory diseases, rashes, heart problems and mental health disorders.
More Permian Basin natural gas facilities to be expanded -A natural gas processing company based in Fort Worth, Texas sought to grow its presence in the Permian Basin, purchasing two facilities on either side of the region. Brazos Midstream announced it acquired the facilities from Diamondback Energy in the eastern Delaware sub-basin near the Texas-New Mexico border and in the Midland Basin further east into Texas. Subsidiary Brazos Delaware closed on its acquisition the Pecos Gathering System from Diamondback in Reeves County, Texas, per a Nov. 3 news release, while Brazos Midland announced it acquired the Mustang Springs Gas Gathering System in Martin County, Texas. Brazos already operated the Pecos system for Diamondback since 2017, but the acquisition augmented the company’s existing system by adding 150 miles of natural gas gathering pipelines and four associated compressor stations. The system was planned to be expanded, the release read, to continue meeting growing demand for gas producers in the area The Mustang Springs system was also planned to be expanded, read the release, as producers planned for growth in the basin. Brad Iles, Brazos chief executive officer said the move was intended to capitalize on continued and expected future growth in fossil fuel development in the Permian Basin, which spans southeast New Mexico and West Texas. The purchased infrastructure will augment Brazos’ portfolio of about 800 miles of natural gas and crude oil pipelines, about 460 million cubic feet of gas processing capacity and 75,000 barrels of crude oil storage capacity. “We are excited to announce both acquisitions and the expansion of our relationship with Diamondback, one of the Permian’s premier oil and gas operators,” Iles said. “The Pecos system is a perfect bolt-on acquisition for our existing Delaware Basin business and will allow Brazos to extend our reach to new producer customers.”
Shale Drillers to Lift USA Spending 19 Percent -Expenditures will rise to $83.4 billion in 2022, the highest since the Covid-19 pandemic emerged. U.S. shale oil producers will increase capital spending by nearly a fifth next year as they deploy more rigs and inflation bites, according to Rystad Energy AS. Expenditures will rise to $83.4 billion in 2022, the highest since the Covid-19 pandemic emerged in early 2020, with more than half of the increase due to “service price inflation,” the Oslo-based consultant said in a note Wednesday. That dollar amount still is about a third lower than forecast levels in 2019, indicating that companies are more disciplined about basing production decisions on near-term changes in crude prices. Closely held explorers have expanded drilling aggressively this year to take advantage of higher oil prices while their publicly-listed rivals resisted that urge and diverted cash to shareholders. In 2022, however, both groups will incur “significant” budget increases, the analysts wrote.
Oil industry to lose nearly half its workers -The oil and gas industry worldwide faces a talent gap as workers contemplate moving to renewables or leaving the energy industry altogether, a survey by recruitment firm Brunel and Oilandgasjobsearch.com, cited by Reuters, showed. More than half of workers in oil and gas, 56%, said they would look for employment opportunities in the renewables energy sector, according to the survey. Last year, that percentage was 38.8%, highlighting the shortages the oil industry is facing as it looks to hire again, after letting go in 2020 thousands of workers in oil and gas and related services in the supply chain. The survey also showed that 43% of workers want out of the energy sector within the next five years. As more workers look to move to renewables or to ditch the energy sector altogether, recruiters in the oil and gas business find attracting talent with the right skills increasingly difficult. Labor shortages have already become evident this year in the US shale patch and in the Canadian oil sands as demand recovers and companies put rigs back into operation. Despite the recent uptick in oil industry employment in the United States, short-term and permanent shifts in workers' negative perceptions of the sector have already started to create labor shortages. These shortages threaten to delay and even hinder the recovery of US oil production, analysts say. More and more workers are fed up with the boom-and-bust nature of the oil industry after two major oil price and drilling activity collapses in just five years. They vow they will never again be beholden to the volatile oil markets, and have quit the sector entirely after being let go in 2020.
Don't Expect Oil and Gas to Drill Us Out of Crunch - Consumers are upset and businesses are beset by higher costs, but for all the sound and fury, the pandemic-fueled energy price spike may not signify a rebound for fossil fuel production either in the long or short run. “We’re undoubtedly in the middle of a big transition in the way that we power our country,” “There aren’t any coal plants being built anymore in the United States to generate electricity, and we’re starting to move more and more away from gas as utilities double down on solar and wind.” “The recent higher prices have not led to any new drilling in Arkansas,” or any renewed activities in oil or gas, he said. Fracking in Arkansas set off a decade-long boom, but it all went bust after gas prices plunged from near $13 per million British thermal units in June 2008 to $1.95 in April 2012. Prices had rebounded to $5.50 per million BTU by last week, but Bengal predicted it would take far higher prices to goose production in Arkansas’ Fayetteville Shale. The Economist also doesn’t expect Big Oil to ride to the rescue in the crunch. A few years ago, fossil fuel producers would have responded to the price surges by producing and investing more. “Not this time,” the magazine said. “Climate change has led to unprecedented pressure on oil and gas firms, especially European ones, to shift away from fossil fuels.” That dynamic has played out closer to home, Hooks said. “Utilities are starting to double down on solar and double down on wind, and it’s becoming an issue that transcends partisan politics. We’re seeing a lot of movement toward cleaner energy in red states and blue states, and that’s just a result of good economic decisions to benefit communities.” He noted that Entergy Arkansas had backed off plans to build a natural gas-burning electricity plant in resource plans submitted late last month to the Arkansas Public Service Commission, which regulates utilities. At the Sierra Club, where Hooks worked until this month, he and environmental allies worked hard to have Entergy reconsider. “Entergy envisioned the construction of another large natural gas plant in Arkansas, mentioning it in their 2018 plans and in the draft” of the proposal presented in October, Hooks said. “We really showed a lot of different economic scenarios, provided a lot of forecasting. As a result, they left major gas construction out of their plans for the foreseeable future, and really doubled down on renewables.” Public opinion and corporate governance demanding action against climate change helped set the stage, but the bottom line was, well, the bottom line.
CenterPoint Energy Hinges Future on Gas Expansion Despite Net-Zero Pledge --CenterPoint Energy billed itself as an industry leader when it pledged in September to reach net-zero emissions for its operations by 2035, but the investor-owned utility is planning a $1.7 billion gas pipeline expansion and fighting efforts to curb fossil fuel reliance at the local level.Shortly after unveiling a commitment to achieve net-zero emissions from CenterPoint’s direct operations during its 2021 Analyst Day, the utility’s executives at the same meeting told analyststhey expect to add 800 miles of new gas pipeline annually. The buildout is part of a $40 billion overall spending plan that sets aside at least $16 billion for gas investments over 10 years. View document or read text.In addition to expanding its pipeline network in Houston, Minneapolis, suburban Indianapolis and central Texas, executives said the utility plans to replace at least 900 miles of existing pipeline each year. While CenterPoint also expects to spend more than $23 billion to grow its electricity business, its overall vision remains underpinned by gas — its signature business line and a key driver of emissions and price volatility for customers. “We believe natural gas has an enduring future,” Scott Doyle, CenterPoint’s executive vice president for natural gas, told analysts shortly after other executives outlined the net-zero framework.CenterPoint previously said it expected to add 500,000 gas customers by 2030, bringing its total gas customers to 4.6 million. In their presentation to analysts, utility executives estimated a total number of gas customers closer to 4.7 million and projected that gas would account for roughly 40% of its rate base — or the part of its spending from which it can earn a profit — under its mammoth investment plan.
Natural gas plunges 11% as U.S. weather forecast stifles demand - -Natural gas futures plummeted 11% in the U.S. as forecasts shifted warmer through the middle of next month, allaying concern about tight domestic supplies amid a global shortage of the heating fuel. The expiration of the December contract last week amplified the market’s volatility. Prices closed 7.5% higher on Friday as traders rushed to close out bearish positions before the contract rolled off the board. Contracts for January delivery fell 62.3 cents to settle at $4.854 per million British thermal units in New York on Monday. Since late summer, volatility in gas prices has stayed well above the average for the past decade even after a drop from last month’s peak as traders try to gauge whether winter cold will strain inventories. Late-autumn cold in Europe and Asia has sparked fears that global gas shortages will worsen as nations struggle to refill stockpiles. But so far, there’s little sign of a similar situation developing in the U.S., even as shale producers keep a lid on output and the country’s exports of liquefied natural gas surge to a record. U.S. gas stockpiles are only 1.6% below normal for the time of year. The so-called widowmaker spread between March and April futures, essentially a bet on how tight inventories will be at the end of the northern hemisphere’s winter, shrank to 41.5 cents, the narrowest since June, after widening to $1.909 last month. Much of the U.S. should see milder-than-usual weather this week, with temperatures expected to peak in the 50s Fahrenheit in Minneapolis and Chicago, according to the Weather Channel. The western half of the country should continue to see above-normal temperatures at least through Dec. 13, private forecaster Commodity Weather Group said in a note to clients. “Particularly mild weather from Wednesday to Friday will decimate physical market demand and intensify downward pressure on Henry Hub spot prices,” EBW AnalyticsGroup said in a note to clients.
U.S. natural gas sinks, on track for worst month in three years -U.S. natural gas futures slid Tuesday to the lowest level in nearly three months as warmer-than-expected winter forecasts sent prices tumbling.The contract for January delivery fell as much as 7% to trade at $4.51 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a price last seen on Sept. 1. The weakness builds on Monday's drop, which saw the contract settle 11.37% lower at $4.85 per MMBtu.Over the last two sessions, futures are down more than 17%."The weather outlook for the core heating demand months of the winter (December, January, February) suggests higher than normal temperatures in the major US demand centers," said David Givens, head of gas and power services for North America at Argus Media."This is purely a weather-driven downturn...[forecasts] currently indicate average to above-average temperatures across the U.S. That in turn has reduced the expected number of heating degree days weighing heavily on Henry Hub prices," added Campbell Faulkner, senior vice president and chief data analyst at OTC Global Holdings.The selling over the last two days comes after natural gas futures spiked 7% on Friday, despite oil falling 13% during the same session. The December contract expired on Friday so some of the activity could have been traders closing out positions. Natural gas is now down about 16% for the month, putting it on track for the worst month since December 2018. The contract is on track for a second month of declines.
January Natural Gas Prices Extend Losing Streak as Demand Fades - Natural gas futures tumbled further on Tuesday as traders looked past robust demand for U.S. exports and fixated on exceptionally light domestic weather demand expectations heading into December. The January Nymex contract dropped 28.7 cents day/day and settled at $4.567/MMBtu. February fell 26.2 cents to $4.506. The January contract, in its debut as the prompt month on Monday, plunged 62.3 cents. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 49.0 cents to $4.465. “The likelihood of further declines later this week” for futures “remains elevated as daily demand plunges and the spot market weakens,” said EBW Analytics Group senior analyst Eli Rubin. The “dwindling of high-leverage winter price spike risks is causing natural gas prices to nosedive.” NatGasWeather said Tuesday forecasts pointed to increasing warmth expectations for the first half of December, with milder adjustments spread across the 15-day projection period. “The overnight data remained exceptionally bearish the rest of this work week and again Dec. 9-15 as most of the U.S. experiences temperatures 10-30 degrees warmer than normal,” the firm said. “…What also makes the overnight data bearish is that the end of the 15-day forecast was again quite warm with the upper pattern, suggesting bearish weather headwinds in the 10-15 day period will carry over to forecast days 16-20.” Widespread cold, the forecaster added, may not arrive in the Lower 48 until the final week of December. At the same time, production hovered around 97 Bcf/d over the past week, according to Bloomberg estimates, putting output on par with 2021 highs. Meanwhile, the Omicron coronavirus variant’s shadow “is growing darker” after Moderna Inc.’s chief executive said existing vaccines could prove less effective combating it than previous strains of the virus, Energy markets traders “will also wait for hints from other vaccine makers, and if more voices reinforce Moderna’s efficacy concerns, further price downside can be expected,” Should the new variant necessitate business and travel restrictions, they could slow economic activity and impact energy needs.
U.S. natgas drops nearly 7% to 3-month low on mild weather forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped almost 7% on Wednesday to a three-month low on forecasts for mild winter weather, record output and ample amounts of gas in storage. Front-month gas futures for January delivery fell 30.9 cents, or 6.8%, to settle at $4.258 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Aug. 26. That put the front-month down about 24% so far this week, its biggest three-day losing streak since December 2005. In addition to the collapse in the front-month, the 2022 March-April spread dropped to its lowest in 20 months as the market stops worrying about the possibility of supply shortages this winter. In recent months, global gas prices hit record highs as utilities around the world scrambled for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to replenish extremely low stockpiles in Europe and meet insatiable demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. Following those global gas prices, U.S. futures jumped to a 12-year high in early October, but have since pulled back because the United States has plenty of gas in storage and ample production for the winter. Overseas prices were trading about seven times higher than U.S. futures. Analysts have said European inventories were about 17% below normal for this time of year, compared with just 2% below normal in the United States. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states jumped to a record average of 96.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, up from 94.2 bcfd in October, easily topping the prior all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 112.5 bcfd this week to 116.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally colder and homes and businesses crank up their heaters. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's forecast on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 11.4 bcfd so far in November, up from 10.5 bcfd in October as the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana started producing LNG. That compares with a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April. With gas prices around $31 per mmBtu in Europe and $36 in Asia, compared with about $4 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce.
U.S. natgas drops to three-month low on mild weather outlook | 路透 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell almost 5% on Thursday to a fresh three-month low on forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, a decline in gas prices overseas and an easing of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. That price drop came despite a small reduction in output and a slightly bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal last week when colder-than-normal weather boosted heating demand. "The market has been waking up to the fact that December will be a warmer month than usual," Refinitiv analyst John Abeln said. "This doesn't preclude weather from getting much colder in January or February. But if the first part of winter is warm, that does reduce the risk that storage will be at extremely low levels by the end of the winter withdrawal season," he said. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 59 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 26. That was a little more than the 57-bcf draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 4 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average decline of 31 bcf. Last week's withdrawal reduced stockpiles to 3.564 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 2.4% below the five-year average of 3.650 tcf for this time of year. Front-month gas futures fell 20.2 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $4.056 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Aug. 25. That put the front-month down about 28% so far this week, its biggest four-day losing streak since February 2014.
Colder Turn in Latest Weather Data Snaps Four-Day Slide for Natural Gas Futures - In an unsurprising move, natural gas futures bounced back from a four-day decline to finish the week firmly in positive territory. With a boost from technicals, colder changes in the weather models sparked a 7.6-cent rally for the January Nymex gas futures contract, which settled at $4.132. February also climbed 7.6 cents to $4.073. - Spot gas prices recorded another day in the red given a mostly mild temperature backdrop. NGI Spot Gas National Avg. fell 31.0 cents to $3.865. After plunging a steep $1.42 over the past four trading sessions, the January contract was poised for a recovery. A colder turn in the overnight weather models sealed the swing to the upside, with futures opening about a nickel higher day/day on the added heating demand in the long-range forecasts. Despite the gain in projected demand, the weather pattern overall continues to favor below-normal heating needs, with forecasters still calling for December to rank in the top five warmest on record. Bespoke Weather Services said given the look of both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the pattern heading into the middle of the month, risk remains to the warmer side in that time frame. Furthermore, the pattern still looks to be in “warm mode” at the end of the forecast period, making it likely that days beyond Dec. 17 would continue to roll in with weak demand. “…Any potential material change in the pattern seems unlikely until at least the end of the month,” the forecaster said.
On completion of planned projects, U.S. LNG export capacity will be the world’s largest in 2022 - EIA Weekly - Since exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) began from the Lower 48 states in February 2016, U.S. LNG export capacity has grown rapidly. Within four years, the United States became the world’s third-largest LNG exporter behind only Australia and Qatar. Once the new LNG liquefaction units (called trains) at Sabine Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass LNG are placed in service in 2022, U.S. LNG export capacity will become the world’s largest.According to announced project plans, the following U.S. LNG export capacity expansions will occur between December 2021 and fall 2022:
- Completion of Train 6 at the Sabine Pass LNG export facility. Train 6 will add up to 0.76 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of peak export capacity. Train 6 began producing LNG in late November and the first export cargo from this train is expected to be shipped before the end of this year.
- Increase in LNG production at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG terminals as a result of optimizing operations. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved an increase in annual LNG production at these two facilities by a combined 261 billion cubic feet per year (Bcf/y) or 0.7 Bcf/d (11.5%) through uprates and modifications to maintenance. Individually:
- FERC granted approval to increase LNG production at Sabine Pass LNG from 1,509 Bcf/y to 1,662 Bcf/y across six liquefaction trains, an increase of 10%.
- FERC approved an LNG production increase at Corpus Christi LNG from 767 Bcf/y to 875 Bcf/y across three trains currently in operation, an increase of 14%.
- New LNG export facility Calcasieu Pass LNG in Louisiana comes online. The project consists of 9 blocks, each containing 2 mid-scale modular liquefaction units for a total of 18 liquefaction units with a combined peak capacity of 1.6 Bcf/d. Commissioning activities at Calcasieu Pass LNGstarted in November 2021, and the first LNG production is expected before the end of this year. All units are expected to be placed in service by the fourth quarter of 2022.
We estimate that as of November 2021, existing U.S. LNG nominal baseload liquefaction capacity was 9.5 Bcf/d and peak capacity was 11.6 Bcf/d (which includes uprates to LNG production capacity at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi). By the end of 2022, U.S. nominal capacity will increase to 11.4 Bcf/d and peak capacity to 13.9 Bcf/d across 7 LNG export facilities and 44 liquefaction trains, including 16 full-scale, 18 mid-scale, and 10 small-scale trains at Sabine Pass,Cove Point, Corpus Christi, Cameron, Elba Island, Freeport, and Calcasieu Pass. In 2022, U.S. LNG export capacity will exceed that of the two current largest global LNG exporters, Australia (11.4 Bcf/d) and Qatar (10.3 Bcf/d). By 2024, when Golden Pass LNG—the eighth U.S. LNG export facility—completes construction and begins operations, U.S. LNG peak export capacity will further increase to an estimated 16.3 Bcf/d. In addition, FERC and the U.S. Department of Energy have approved another 10 U.S. LNG export projects and capacity expansions at 3 existing LNG terminals—Cameron, Freeport, and Corpus Christi—totaling 25 Bcf/d of new capacity. Developers of some of these projects announced plans to make a final investment decision (FID) in 2022.
Divide Grows Between Sweet, Sour Oil Prices as OPEC-Plus, Natural Gas Play Key Roles Mounting output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies and lofty global natural gas prices are widening the spread between sweet and sour crude prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Friday. While crude prices have recently come off 2021 highs in large part because of coronavirus resurgence concerns, they remain firmly in positive territory for the year. However, prices of high-sulfur oils have been declining relative to low-sulfur alternatives, EIA said. The alliance — known as OPEC-plus — produces mostly medium- or high-sulfur oils, aka sour crude. Its mounting exports contributed to the expanding gulf. Sour oils typically sell at a discount to low-sulfur, or sweet, crude because they must first be treated with hydrogen to meet low-sulfur fuel specifications, EIA said. In the second half of 2021, sour crude discounts increased compared with historical averages, the agency’s researchers said in a report, with Mars crude, a sour oil, falling in price relative to sweet Brent oil, they said. The Saudi-led OPEC and partner countries on Thursday agreed to further boost production by 400,000 b/d in January, continuing a pace of monthly supply increases the cartel began in the summer. The Mars spot price averaged $4.92/bbl less than its Brent counterpart in November, the agency said. This was notably steeper than the $4.09 average difference between the two in August, when OPEC-plus launched its monthly supply increases. OPEC-plus increases have been most notable in countries that produce sour grades. Supply from members that produce mostly sweet crude “has been relatively flat. Likewise, U.S. production in the Lower 48 states (primarily sweet crude) has also been relatively flat,” EIA said. U.S. crude production for the week ended Nov. 26 rose to 11.6 million b/d, up 100,000 b/d from the prior week and far ahead of the 11.1 million b/d a year earlier, according to EIA data. But U.S. output has only inched up this year and remained 1.5 million b/d below the 2020 high reached during the week ended March 13, just prior to the pandemic. “We expect wide” crude spreads in 2022, Bank of America Corp. analysts said in a note to clients. “Importantly, the shale industry has shown good discipline.” High natural gas prices have also contributed to the divide between sweet and sour crudes. EIA researchers noted that hydrogen used to treat sour crude is often produced using steam methane reforming, a process that uses natural gas as an input. “As a result, the recent increases in global natural gas prices have contributed to higher refinery feedstock costs. Higher costs have led to lower demand for sour crude oils that incur more of these costs, at the same time increasing demand for sweeter oils that avoid these extra costs.”
U.S. Drilling Activity Steady Against Backdrop of Omicron Worries - -The domestic oil and gas patch turned in a relatively uneventful week in terms of net changes to drilling activity, according to the latest round of Baker Hughes Co. (BKR) data. Both oil and natural gas rig counts went unchanged overall for the week ended Friday (Dec. 3), holding flat at 467 and 102, respectively. The combined U.S. rig count stood at 569 as of Friday, up from 323 a year ago. Land drilling increased by two units overall, offsetting a two-rig decline in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the BKR numbers, which are based in part on data from Enverus. Vertical rigs increased by three in the United States for the period, offset by a three-rig decrease in directional rigs. The Canadian rig count climbed nine units to finish the week at 180, up from 102 in the year-earlier period. Gains included seven oil-directed rigs and two natural gas-directed units. BKR’s state-by-state breakdown showed some shuffling around of units even as the overall tally went unchanged week/week. New Mexico saw a net increase of five rigs for the period, reaching 88, versus 59 a year ago. Texas and Louisiana posted net declines of two rigs each, while one rig exited in California. By major play, the Permian Basin added three rigs to raise its total to 283, up from 164 at this time last year. The Cana Woodford, meanwhile, dropped one rig to fall to 23 overall, up from nine in the year-earlier period.
Another Texas House primary showdown is coming, and it's all about climate policy and Big Oil donations - The Washington Post --Jessica Cisneros is vying for the seat of one of the biggest Democratic recipients of fossil fuel industry money in Congress. And she's making climate change a centerpiece of her campaign.Cisneros, a 28-year-old immigration and human rights lawyer, is mounting a second primary challenge against Rep. Henry Cuellar, a 66-year-old former attorney who has represented south Texas in Congress for nearly two decades. Story continues below advertisement In the 2020 primary, Cuellar beat Cisneros by less than 3,000 votes. This time around, Cisneros is seeking to highlight Cuellar's donations from the oil and gas industry, which she says have driven his opposition to certain climate policies.Cuellar is the fourth-biggest recipient in the House of oil and gas campaign contributions in the 2022 cycle so far, receiving $100,200, according to OpenSecrets. He previously received $165,305 from the fossil fuel industry over the 2015-16 campaign cycle, leading McClatchy to speculate whether he was "Big Oil's favorite Democrat." In the climate policy arena, Cuellar opposes the Green New Deal, the sweeping proposal to wean the nation off fossil fuels in a decade with a government-led jobs program. He has also expressed concern about including a fee on emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that can leak from oil and gas wells, in Democrats' climate and social spending bill. While Cuellar voted for the Build Back Better Act when it passed the House this month, he is continuing to lobby the Senate to drop the methane fee from the spending bill, the Associated Press reported last week. "It's no surprise that as a result of his track record, he's known as Big Oil's favorite Democrat," Cisneros said of Cuellar in an interview with The Climate 202. "And it's no surprise that he's doing their bidding after all the support he's received from them."
New Mexico taking action on oil and gas-induced earthquakes -- A growing threat of earthquakes in southeast New Mexico prompted the State to take action by upping its seismic monitoring and calling for oil and gas operators to curb the amount of produced water disposed of underground. The byproduct water, known as produced water in industry terms, is a combination of flowback water created during hydraulic fracturing operations and water brought up from underground shale formations along with oil and natural gas. Traditionally this water, briny and contaminated with toxic chemicals, is pumped back into the shale for disposal, but such a process was recently linked to increased seismic events in the Permian Basin shared by southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Earlier this year, the Texas Railroad Commission announced it was establishing two seismic response areas (SRAs) in the Midland areaand along the Texas-New Mexico border in Culberson and Reeves counties. It called for reductions in produced water injection volumes and advocated blocking any new permits for saltwater disposal wells (SWDs). And on Tuesday, New Mexico’s Oil Conservation Division (OCD) announced similar actions as a string of earthquakes were reported in New Mexico throughout November. Permits under review for SWDs in the area south of Malaga, near the Texas State Line, will require additional review, the department said. Meanwhile, a “statewide response protocol” was put in place by the OCD that will increase reporting and monitoring measures while also reducing the volume of water injected based on further observed seismic activity. “Category 1” of the protocol would go into effect when two quakes of magnitude (M) 2.5 or higher occur within 30 days and within a 10-mile radius of each other. An M 2.5 earthquake is the first level where it could be lightly felt, according to the Richter Scale. Serious damage can occur at a M 3 or greater. With 10 miles of the epicenter of such an event, operators would be required to provide to the state weekly reporting of daily injection volumes and average daily surface pressure, while digitally measuring injections volumes and pressure and providing analysis and data to the OCD when requested. At “Category 2,” which goes into effect if one M 3 event occurs, all of Category 1 requirements would be imposed, along with requirements that operators within 3 miles reduce injection rates by 50 percent. Within 3-6 miles, operators would be required to cut injection by 25 percent. If a M 3.5 or higher quake is reported, operators with 3 miles must shut in their wells, and cut injection by 50 percent at 3-6 miles, and 25 percent at 6-10 miles.
Uinta Basin is hemorrhaging methane as leaks go undetected - As much as 8% of the Uinta Basin’s natural gas production escapes into the atmosphere, an indication that the basin’s methane emissions are among the worst in the nation for energy-producing regions, according to new research from the University of Utah. Monitoring data indicate leaks from wells, pipelines, compressors and processing facilities release 6 to 8% of the natural gas pulled from the ground in northeastern Utah, representing a huge waste of a largely publicly owned natural resource. These “fugitive” emissions also pose an avoidable threat to the climate. That’s because methane, the main ingredient in natural gas, has a much stronger greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide. An estimated 2.3% of U.S. natural gas production escapes into the atmosphere, according to other research, accounting for 30% of the nation’s human-caused methane emissions. Other leading sources include coal mines, landfills and possibly bovine flatulence.The Biden administration highlighted “methane abatement” as one of its strategies for achieving its goal of cutting the nation’s 2005 greenhouse emissions in half by 2030. On Nov. 2, the Environmental Protection Agency proposed tighter standards and guidelines for reducing methaneemissions from oil and gas operations. These rules would cut emissions by 41 million tons through 2035, the agency said.Despite the severity of methane’s impact, quantifying these fugitive emissions has been elusive. Labor-intensive methods of surveying oil and gas sites for leaks has proven unreliable. But a research team led by John Lin, a U. atmospheric scientist, is now using long-term monitoring data to determine how much methane escapes from the Uinta Basin’s oil and gas operations. According to a peer-reviewed study released this week in Scientific Reports, Lin’s team documented how the basin’s methane emissions dropped by half since 2015, in virtual lockstep with declining natural gas production over the same period when commodity prices tanked. “This means that the leak rate has stayed at a constant—albeit high—rate, even with decreases in natural gas production,” Lin said. Previous research suggested lower-production wells would leak a higher proportion of methane. “This may account for the high leak rate in general in the Uinta Basin since the average Uinta well produces less gas compared to many other counterparts around the U.S.,” Lin said. “However, it was nonetheless surprising that the leak rate did not increase as the Uinta wells decreased in production.” His findings support similar findings from eight years ago by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, which estimated that 6 to 12% of the basin’s production leaked into the air.
Democrats press drillers for methane leak data - Democrats are asking 10 oil and gas companies for data on leaks of a planet-warming gas called methane, as these leaks can add significantly to fuels' contributions to climate change. As part of a new inquiry announced on Friday, House Space, Science and Technology Committee Chairwoman Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas) wrote to companies seeking such data. She wrote to 10 companies, including ExxonMobil and Chevron, that operate in the Permian Basin producing region in the southwestern U.S. in what she described as an attempt to understand whether their technology can achieve significant emissions reductions. The inquiry also seeks information about whether and how to strengthen the federal government’s role in monitoring methane leaks. When they’re burned, oil and especially natural gas give off fewer planet-warming emissions than coal, and the industry has often touted them as cleaner alternative energy sources. However, leaks of methane, which is 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide over a 100-year period, can occur during the process of producing and transporting oil and gas. These leaks in turn increase how the fuels contribute to global warming and undercut such assertions from the industry.Johnson, in her letters, cited a study that found that about 60 percent more methane was leaked in 2015 than was counted by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The study attributed the underestimate to inventory methods that do not account for “abnormal operating conditions.” “The existence of these leaks, as well as continued uncertainty regarding their size, duration, and frequency, threatens America’s ability to avoid the worst impacts of climate change,” Johnson said in a statement. “I am concerned that oil and gas sector Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs may not be designed and equipped to comprehensively monitor and detect methane leaks, particularly the intermittent, ‘super-emitting’ leaks that are responsible for much of the sector’s leak emissions.”In the letters, she specifically asked companies whether they have developed estimates of their emissions in the Permian Basin that differ from the EPA estimates. She also asked them to provide information about how much methane they have leaked annually since 2016.
Senator Warren’s oil price conspiracy theory - As Friday’s 10% oil price plunge demonstrated, there is only one truth when it comes to oil prices: if you don’t like the price today, just wait a little. Yet for some, everything is politics, and the recent increase in gasoline prices has seen many from both parties weighing in, responding to public anger. Sadly, little of the discussion involves supply and demand, nationally or globally, but rather finger-pointing and trolling. Take for example, the recent appearance by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren on Joy Reid’s MSNBC show, where the host expressed consternation that people had been staying home but gasoline prices had risen anyway. In response, the senator replied, “If this were just ordinary inflation, we might see prices go up, but prices at the pump have gone up why? Chevron, Exxon, have doubled their profits. This isn’t about inflation, this is about price gouging for these guys.” Both the question and the reply were nonsense. Ms. Reid apparently thinks demand determines prices, rather than both demand AND supply. Last year, soaring inventories led to a collapse in oil prices, briefly below $25/barrel (ignoring the one day’s negative price). OECD oil inventories rose by a phenomenal 300 million barrels in three months, far above normal. Then two things happened. First, OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) cut production by an astonishing amount—but not an outrageous amount, given the collapse in demand. This brought inventories down to a more normal level, as the figure shows. However, the global economy recovered faster than expected: the July 2020 IEA forecast for 2021 demand was low by about 3 mb/d, which translates into an annual amount of over 1 billion barrels. Add Hurricane Ida which caused a loss of over 40 million barrels of production at a time when inventories were already low, and you have the (cough) perfect storm. But Senator Warren’s comment is problematic for a number of reasons, not just because she ignores the actual market developments. First, she conveniently ignores the huge financial losses that the oil industry in 2020. If she called for their losses to be subsidized, or bailed out, I must have missed it. Her focus on only most recent quarterly profits certainly confirms her political bias. More bizarrely, she adopts the not uncommon view that the oil industry, especially the big companies, can control the price—but usually choose not to. Does she think that last year, the industry ‘allowed’ the price to collapse? Then this year, just by coincidence, they choose to raise prices as global oil inventories shrank? She is hardly alone in thinking that the invisible hand of the market is really a group of individuals or companies who control it for their own interests. In fact, there are those in the oil industry who think the market is being controlled by outsiders such as traders on Wall Street who are antagonistic to them and periodically drive the price down to their detriment. The reality is that the price is the result of myriad decisions by thousands of traders and producers in the short-run and millions of consumers in the long run. As Senator Warren has shown repeatedly over her career, her progressive instinct is to distrust and “fix” seemingly inefficient markets, believing that she knows better than the collective decisions of thousands of market participants what is best for the citizenry. Percolating from the progressives are suggestions that exports of oil and gas should be banned on the grounds that creating a domestic surplus would lower prices — at least for the U.S. The next time gasoline prices surge, watch for Senator Warren to embrace her inner Richard Nixon and propose oil price controls.
Biden administration releases report saying oil and gas companies should pay more to drill on public lands - In an effort to boost revenue and protect the environment, the Biden administration on Friday laid out plans to make fossil fuel companies pay more to drill on federal lands and waters. The 18-page Interior Department report describes an “outdated” federal oil and gas leasing program that “fails to provide a fair return to taxpayers, even before factoring in the resulting climate-related costs.” The document calls for increasing the government’s royalty rate — the 12.5 percent of profits fossil fuel developers must pay to the federal government in exchange for drilling on public lands — to be more in line with the higher rates charged by most private landowners and major oil- and gas-producing states. It also makes the case for raising the bond companies must set aside for cleanup before they begin new development. Though Friday’s report focuses on the fiscal case for updating the leasing program, Interior officials say they will also consider how to incorporate the real-world toll of climate change into the price of permits for new fossil fuel extraction. The Biden administration this year set its “social cost of carbon” at $51 per ton of emissions, but suggested the number could go even higher as researchers develop new estimates of the damage caused by raging wildfires, deadly heat, crop-destroying droughts and catastrophic floods. “The direct and indirect impacts associated with oil and gas development on our nation’s land, water, wildlife, and the health and security of communities — particularly communities of color, who bear a disproportionate burden of pollution — merit a fundamental rebalancing of the federal oil and gas program,” the report says. But many activists were dissatisfied with the document, which they say breaks President Biden’s campaign promise to ban new oil and gas leasing on public lands. Advertisement “We are destroying life on Earth by extracting fossil fuels,” said Randi Spivak, public lands program director at the Center for Biological Diversity. “The process needs to end, not be reformed.” Economic analyses suggest the changes to royalty and bonding rates will increase revenue, but they will not significantly curb carbon emissions. After a summer during which 1 in 3 Americans experienced a climate disaster, Spivak compared the administration’s plans to “rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.” The American Petroleum Institute’s Frank Macchiarola criticized the proposal for increasing the cost of fuel development in the United States. “During one of the busiest travel weeks of the year when rising costs of energy are even more apparent to Americans, the Biden Administration is sending mixed signals,” Macchiarola, API’s senior vice president for policy, economics and regulatory affairs, said in a statement.
3 issues to watch with Biden's oil and gas overhaul - The Biden administration’s “high level blueprint” for revamping the federal oil and gas program, published over the Thanksgiving holiday, is either a bombshell or a dud depending on who’s talking.On the one hand, it lays out an overhaul of the the federal oil program that has been largely unchanged for decades. It’s won accolades from many environmental groups that have fought for these changes for years and elicited groans from industry allies who say the proposals would hamper production at a time when this country should actually be encouraging development.But some climate activists countered the Interior Department’s long-awaited report merely embraces incremental reforms that fail to sufficiently address the federal oil program’s contributions to climate change, and certainly do not uphold President Biden’s campaign pledge to end new leasing on public lands and waters.If Interior Secretary Deb Haaland implements the report’s recommendations, oil drillers on public land could face a dramatic increase in royalty rates for the first time in 100 years. They also may need to secure insurance to cover their cleanup costs, a multibillion-dollar hole in current bonding that would ensure wells are plugged and lands restored after drilling (Greenwire, Nov. 26).While Interior would need to write new rules to implement some of these plans, new practices at its offices could be enough to implement other suggestions — such as the recommendation that lands with little oil potential not be made available for auction. The report, too, said Interior should no longer open the entire Gulf of Mexico to oil and gas drillers in each lease sale.The report completes the review ordered by President Biden shortly after taking office in January. At the time, he also temporarily froze new leasing — a moratorium later ended by a federal judge. The report’s conclusion for the president is blunt: “The review found a Federal oil and gas program that fails to provide a fair return to taxpayers, even before factoring in the resulting climate-related costs that must be borne by taxpayers.”
US Interior leasing reforms to have minor production impact despite higher costs - The Biden administration's proposed reforms to federal oil and gas leasing could raise costs to drillers and potentially shrink available acreage, but the expected production impact continues to be minor, analysts said Nov. 29. The US Interior Department issued an 18-page report laying out its goals for overhauling the leasing program with the aim of providing a "fair return" to US taxpayers, in line with past recommendations by the Government Accountability Office and Interior's Office of Inspector General. The report proposed increasing royalties, rental rates, minimum bids, and bonding requirements; while curbing royalty relief and imposing new leasing fees, among other changes. "There is nothing in this report that would that tangibly impact near or medium-term supply from the US if enacted," said Parker Fawcett, North American supply analyst for S&P Global Platts Analytics. "Further out, a restriction in available acreage for leasing does put lingering risk to the long-term development of federal lands." About 7% of US oil production and 8% of US gas output is produced on federal onshore lands, while federal offshore acreage accounts for about 16% of US oil output and 3% of gas output, the report said. Democrats' Build Back Better budget reconciliation bill currently proposes even more aggressive changes to royalty rates, royalty relief, minimum bids, and non-competitive leasing than Interior's report, said Glenn Schwartz, energy policy director of Rapidan Energy Group. Schwartz added that any regulatory changes on acreage are not "all that necessary." While the Mineral Leasing Act requires quarterly auctions for federal leasing, it gives the Interior Secretary wide discretion under the existing statute to "determine where and how much acreage is offered up." "While an outright ban was always illegal, this discretion vests [Interior and its Bureau of Land Management] with all the authority it needs to control the flow of leases and permits as it sees fit," Schwartz said. "So, in that way, the changes proposed by this report don't really change our outlook on oil and gas production. Any changes made through regulation or bureaucratic discretion can be undone fairly easily by a future administration that takes a more positive view towards fossil fuel development on federal lands." Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, said the timing of the report — the Friday after Thanksgiving — suggests "that the White House may have hoped to minimize criticisms linking current gasoline prices to the administration's federal oil and gas strictures."
Oil industry and Biden administration clash over latest proposals -- New proposals by the Biden administration and Congress could have a major impact on the mainstay of Louisiana and Houma-Thibodaux's economies: oil and gas. Biden and the oil industry have long been at odds as he follows through on a campaign pledge to reduce the pollution, rising seas and other ill effects greenhouse gasses from fossil fuels are wreaking on the planet. His latest action came Friday when the Interior Department proposed major changes to the federal government's oil and gas leasing program. The report includes a recommendation to increase royalty rates, or the price the government charges oil and gas companies to drill on federal lands and waters, including the Gulf of Mexico. “Our nation faces a profound climate crisis that is impacting every American. The Interior Department has an obligation to responsibly manage our public lands and waters – providing a fair return to the taxpayer and mitigating worsening climate impacts – while staying steadfast in the pursuit of environmental justice,” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in releasing the report. “This review outlines significant deficiencies in the federal oil and gas programs and identifies important and urgent fiscal and programmatic reforms that will benefit the American people.” Oil-industry groups expressed immediate opposition. "During one of the busiest travel weeks of the year, when rising costs of energy are even more apparent to Americans, the Biden administration is sending mixed signals," Frank Macchiarola, senior vice president with the American Petroleum Institute, said in a news release. "Days after a public speech in which the White House said the president 'is using every tool available to him to work to lower prices and address the lack of supply,' his Interior Department proposed to increase costs on American energy development with no clear roadmap for the future of federal leasing."Meanwhile, the Biden-backed Build Back Better legislation passed Nov. 19 by the House includes several provisions that would also limit drilling and make it more difficult and expensive to explore for and produce oil and gas. Among its provisions:
- A permanent ban on drilling off most of the nation's coasts, including the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Congress has repeatedly enacted bans in that area, with the latest set to expire in June. The Trump administration issued an executive order extending the ban through 2032, but that could be undone by any president without congressional action.
- A fee on methane released from wells, pipelines and oil and gas storage sites.
- About $300 in combined tax credits aimed at encouraging the use of renewable energy instead of fossil fuels to produce electricity, power vehicles and manufacture goods.
- Tax credits of up to $12,500 on the purchase of a new electric vehicle and $4,000 for a used one.
Michigan drops one lawsuit, revisits another in Enbridge Line 5 fight -After a federal judge this month dealt a blow to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s campaign to shut down Enbridge Energy’s Line 5 pipeline, Michigan is hoping for better legal luck in state court. State Attorney General Dana Nessel on Tuesday filed notice with U.S. District Court Judge Janet Neff that she is voluntarily dismissing the state's federal lawsuit. The suit, originally filed in state court but later moved, sought to reinforce the governor's year-old order for Enbridge to stop transporting oil through the Straits of Mackinac. Instead, Nessel is seeking to kickstart an earlier lawsuit she filed against the company in Ingham County Circuit Court soon after taking office. That lawsuit, which also seeks a Line 5 shutdown, was paused this year while Michigan and Enbridge fought in federal court over Whitmer’s shutdown order. In November of last year, Whitmer gave Enbridge a 6-month deadline to stop transporting oil through the Straits, and Nessel followed with a lawsuit seeking to reinforce the order before a Michigan judge. Enbridge quickly counter-sued, arguing the state had no authority to shut down a federally-regulated pipeline. The company also was successful in getting the case removed to federal court, arguing, over Nessel’s protests, that the case belonged before a federal judge. In a statement, Nessel noted that the dismissal Tuesday of the federal suit was the governor’s decision and said Michigan will continue fighting Enbridge in state court. “The state court case is the quickest and most viable path to permanently decommission Line 5,” Nessel said. “The Governor and I continue to be aligned in our commitment to protect the Great Lakes and this The dismissal follows Neff’s ruling earlier in November that the lawsuit over Whitmer’s shutdown order must continue in federal court because Line 5 is now subject to an international treaty dispute, and because it falls under the regulatory purview of the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. That decision was a blow to state attorneys, who had argued that the state’s public trust authority gives the Whitmer administration authority to shut down Line 5. By keeping the case in federal court, Neff was essentially nullifying the state’s central argument. M
Michigan is now 'on weak legal ground' in Line 5 debate, DeWine administration says - —Ohio Lt. Gov. Jon Husted believes the new strategy Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is taking in hopes of an eventual closing of the controversial pipeline known as Line 5 "is a sign that Michigan understands it is on weak legal ground in federal court and is seeking a more favorable forum to plea their case," he told The Blade via email Wednesday. "Ohio will continue to fight to keep Line 5 open so fuel gas prices don't go up and jobs won't be lost," the lieutenant governor said. "We urge Michigan to honor the commitment they made with the pipeline owner under [former] Governor [Rick] Snyder to keep the pipeline operating in an environmentally responsible manner." Governor Whitmer caused a bit of a stir on Tuesday when she announced she was voluntarily dismissing a lawsuit she filed in U.S. District Court against Enbridge in November of 2020, one which largely mirrored a lawsuit that Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel filed in June of 2019 in state court. One of the questions has been over jurisdiction. Canadian-based Enbridge, the pipeline's owner-operator, had wanted the case heard in federal court, citing interstate laws and agreements with Canada over the transport of fuel products through Line 5. Proponents of keeping the matter in state court have cited precedents about common law. U.S. District Judge Janet Neff agreed with Enbridge that the matter belonged in federal court. Ms. Whitmer responded by dismissing the lawsuit she brought over whether a federal judge should give the ultimate ruling. Line 5 has become one of North America's biggest debates over pipelines. Although it traverses more than 645 miles across Canada and the United States, four of them run through the Straits of Mackinac, which Governor Whitmer considers an environmentally risky location because of the potential impact on one of the world's largest collections of fresh surface water. At stake is the future protection for the Great Lakes, and the economic well-being of industries, including two Toledo-area refineries and one in Detroit, which provide thousands of high-paying jobs and produce much of the region's gasoline, propane, jet fuel, and other petroleum products. Several are dependent on Line 5.
Canada says talks with U.S. over pipeline dispute should start soon - Formal talks between Canada and the United States over a disputed Michigan pipeline should start soon, Ottawa said on Wednesday, the latest development in an affair souring bilateral relations. Last month Canada invoked a 1977 treaty with the United States to trigger negotiations over Enbridge Inc’s Line 5, which Michigan wants to shut down on environmental grounds. Michigan’s governor said on Tuesday she would dismiss her lawsuit against the pipeline in federal court, clearing the way for a separate case in state court. Canada’s foreign ministry said the move did not affect talks under the 1977 treaty. “We expect the formal negotiations to begin soon,” ministry spokeswoman Clara Trudeau said by email, noting that “Canada has consistently supported the continued, safe operation of Line 5, and raised it with the U.S. government at every level”. The treaty has never been invoked before. Line 5 ships 540,000 barrels per day of crude and refined products from Superior, Wisconsin, to Sarnia, Ontario. Michigan ordered it shut down by May over worries a leak could develop in a four-mile section running beneath the Straits of Mackinac in the Great Lakes. Enbridge ignored Michigan’s order and the sides are embroiled in a legal battle. Canada’s federal Trade Minister Mary Ng is due to raise the matter during three days of talks in Washington this week, her office said. She will also discuss irritants such as U.S. duties on Canadian software lumber and planned U.S. tax breaks for domestically produced electric vehicles.
Commentary: Biden Is Making Russia Great Again - Under former President Donald J. Trump, for the first time in decades, the United States became a net exporter of natural gas and oil. That helped to keep global energy prices relatively low. It also gave the United States leverage over the international system in ways it had not enjoyed since before the 1970s. Alas, the propagation of the novel coronavirus from Wuhan, China, along with the ceaseless lies of the Western “mainstream” media made such a prosperous and secure future under Trump an impossibility.In the eight months since assuming office under a cloud of controversy, Joe Biden has done more to harm America’s inherent strategic advantages in the global energy market than any U.S. rival could have imagined. Under Biden, the United States has gone from being a net exporter of global energy to begging the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to produce more oil for the world to consume.Why?Because the Biden Administration killed the much-needed KeystoneXL Pipeline that would have linked Canadian energy sources with American refiners. Once inaugurated, the Biden Administration’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) enacted a bevy of onerous regulations that ensured American fossil fuel producers would not produce their essential product out of fear of retribution from vengeful federal regulators.Biden also killed similar pipelines linking northern Michigan with Canada. Meanwhile, global supply chain woes following the painful COVID-19 lockdowns from the previous year ensured that there would be even more strain on the already stretched global energy supply. Plus, the reopening of the world’s major economies, coupled with the massive government spending that occurred over the previous year to combat COVID-19, forced a spike in demand that was not commensurate with supply—further straining that already limited energy supply and sending the price of energy into the stratosphere. Higher energy prices not only harmed American consumers but, over the last year, it has given renewed life to the Putin regime in Russia. Since Russia is a major producer of natural gas and oil, Moscow needs consistently high prices of energy to survive—and dominate—in their region of the world.North Dakota eyes federal money for expansion of oil well plugging program -North Dakota’s top oil regulator wants to extend the state’s abandoned well plugging program by tapping into $4 billion made available in the federal infrastructure bill for the purpose of cleaning up old oil and gas sites across the nation. Tens of millions of dollars could potentially come North Dakota’s way each year over the next decade to continue the work the Oil and Gas Division started in 2020 to clean up hundreds of wells. Other oil and gas states also are eligible to apply, and advocates for North Dakota landowners say the rest of the country could learn from the state’s experience. The funding is meant “to tackle this problem nationwide and to improve state regulations and federal regulations so that the problem not only doesn’t continue to grow but doesn’t continue to extend and require another infusion of money at some point in the future,” State Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms said. “We’re really excited about that,” he added. North Dakota spent tens of millions of dollars in federal coronavirus aid plugging more than 300 abandoned wells and reclaiming the sites over the past two years. The cleanup work is ongoing. State officials billed the program as a way to keep oil workers employed when the pandemic prompted a downturn in their industry, as well as a means to address the growing number of wells producers had abandoned.While landowners are eager to see abandoned wells dealt with, some advocates have concerns about the way the program was implemented last year. “If they would be more thoughtful in the approach to this, we could do a much better job than last time when it was very rushed,” said Troy Coons, chairman of the Northwest Landowners Association. Coons’ group released a report last month evaluating North Dakota’s program. Among the concerns it raised is that reclamation work meant to restore a well site to its original state was sometimes left incomplete, with contamination from saltwater spills still lingering. Saltwater is a byproduct of oil production and can render land infertile if it leaks.
Pipeline documents case headed to North Dakota high court — A legal battle is headed to North Dakota’s Supreme Court over access to thousands of documents related to the developer of the Dakota Access Pipeline and the company that oversaw security during construction.Pipeline developer Energy Transfer and its subsidiary Dakota Access LLC last year sued the state board that regulates private investigators and security firms, seeking the return of some 16,000 documents. The Houston-based company argues the records are confidential and could present a security risk if released publicly.Arguments in the case likely will be held in January or February, state Supreme Court clerk Petra Hulm said Wednesday.The security company, North Carolina-based TigerSwan, gave the documents to the North Dakota Private Investigative and Security Board during a two-year-long fight over whether the company operated illegally without a license in North Dakota while the pipeline was under construction in 2016 and 2017.TigerSwan settled its case with the state last year for $175,000 but denied any wrongdoing. Energy Transfer wants the documents back and has sued TigerSwan for breach of contract. Separately, litigation has arisen over release of the documents to the media. First Look Institute Inc., the nonprofit publisher of The Intercept, sued North Dakota last year, seeking to obtain the documents, under the state’s open records law.The North Dakota attorney general’s office is representing the board in that case. Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem said he could not comment on the case due to the ongoing litigation.
Industrial Commission approves guidelines for the new 'Natural Gas Pipeline Grant' program - North Dakota’s Industrial Commission has approved the timelines and the guidelines for the new Natural Gas Pipeline Grant Program. That program was funded in the special Legislative Session, and will be paid for through the American Recovery Plan Act, or “ARPA.” The Legislature appropriated $150 million from ARPA funds for the project, which aims to bring natural gas from the Bakken to central and eastern North Dakota. $10 million of that has been earmarked to build a short pipeline from the Viking Pipeline in western Minnesota to Grand Forks County, for a new “wet corn milling “plant. The guidelines include requiring a minimum 60% match from the applicant; requiring that the applicant operate as a "common carrier," and demonstrates sufficient shipper commitments before receiving any money; and the establishment of a Natural Gas Review Committee, that will make a recommendation to the Industrial Commission. The deadline for companies to apply for that $10 million grant is March First, 2022, with a decision due in August, 2022. "The time frame for that Grand Forks portion, is to have it in-service by mid 2024," said North Dakota Pipeline Authority director Justin Kringstad. For the larger project, the deadline for application is April First, 2022, with a potential completion date of 2025 or 2026. "We know gas volumes are ramping up in western North Dakota extremely quickly," Kringstad said. "Time is of the essence." State officials are concerned that — because of the gas-oil ratio in the Bakken — oil production could be curtailed, to prevent flaring of natural gas. Kringstad said this project will continue to shape North Dakota's oil and gas industry. "This will continue to help shape North Dakota's oil and gas industry," Kringstad said. "It's an exciting time." Kringstad said he's already been contacted by companies interested in the project.
Jordan Cove project dies. What it means for FERC, gas - - The developer of an Oregon liquefied natural gas export terminal told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for the first time yesterday it would not move forward with the embattled project, putting to rest years of uncertainty for landowners.Citing challenges in obtaining necessary permits from state agencies as the reason for abandoning the Jordan Cove project, Pembina Pipeline Corp. asked FERC to cancel authorizations for the LNG terminal and associated Pacific Connector pipeline, which would have carried natural gas from Canada to the proposed facility in Coos Bay, Ore.“Among other considerations, Applicants remain concerned regarding their ability to obtain the necessary state permits in the immediate future in addition to other external obstacles,” Pembina said in its brief to FERC.The announcement adds to a debate about the role of natural gas at a time of high prices and as industry groups are pressuring the Biden administration to clarify exactly how LNG exports fit into its broader climate agenda (Energywire, July 8). It also may influence FERC’s ongoing review of how it approves gas projects.Pembina’s move is a win for landowners who have been steadfastly opposing the project for years, said David Bookbinder, chief counsel for the Niskanen Center and attorney for some of the landowners affected by the pipeline. The Niskanen Center and others submitted a brief of their own yesterday, urging FERC to grant Pembina’s request to ax the certificate."I can say the landowners are utterly delighted that this chapter of their 15-year nightmare is over and hopefully that will truly be the end of Pembina’s hopes to build this project," he said.The company had put the export project on an indefinite hold in April after failing to get key state and federal approvals.But Pembina’s decision to cancel the project outright means affected landowners can now move forward with plans to improve or sell their property, Bookbinder added.The commission did not respond to a request for comment on the brief, since the issue remains pending.Scott Lauermann, a spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, called the cancellation of Jordan Cove “yet another unfortunate example of a much needed U.S. energy infrastructure project being terminated due to unnecessary regulatory delays.” Canceling the project, which was slated to carry LNG to Asian markets, meant the U.S. had "lost an opportunity to export its success in reducing emissions," said Western States and Tribal Nations President Andrew Browning in a statement.
Oil pipeline planned even as California moves away from gas - (AP) — A proposal to replace an oil pipeline that was shut down in 2015 after causing California's worst coastal spill in 25 years is inching though a government review, even as the state moves toward banning gas-powered vehicles and oil drilling. Consideration of the $300 million proposal by Houston-based Plains All American Pipeline is expected to enter a critical phase next year at a time when new scrutiny is being placed on the state’s oil industry after an offshore pipeline break in October near Huntington Beach. That rupture released at least 25,000 gallons (94,635 liters) of crude that closed beaches and took a deadly toll on sea life along one of the world’s fabled surf breaks. Farther north, the 123-mile (198 kilometer) Plains pipeline travels along the coastline near Santa Barbara before turning inland. It's buried and nearly invisible for much of its length to Kern County, in the state's midsection. For decades it was a vital link between oil platforms off the coast and processing plants on shore, with shipments averaging 1.8 million gallons (6.9 million liters) a day. California Democratic U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla opposes the proposal, bluntly warning of future risks. “We’ve seen time and time again how damaging offshore oil spills are to our coastal ecosystems as well as to our outdoor recreation and tourism economies,” Padilla said in a statement. “We should not risk repeating history by rebuilding or restarting the Plains pipeline.” Plains spokesman Brad Leone said the company safely transported 90 billion gallons (341 billion liters) last year throughout North America. “Plains is committed to designing, constructing and maintaining these lines in a safe, reliable manner,” he said. The project faces numerous hurdles, including a federal class-action lawsuit from property owners who say Plains lacks the right to use existing easements for a new pipeline. Lead trial counsel Barry Cappello said the project would rip up vineyards and coastal ranches and “our clients never signed up for that.”
Fossil Fuel Companies Stand to Make Billions From Tax Break in Democrats’ Build Back Better Bill - With the Senate turning its attention to President Joe Biden’s climate and social policy bill in the coming weeks, lawmakers are poised to expand a key tax credit that energy industry lobbyists and some experts say could unleash an important climate tool.But the legislation, which includes changes to a tax credit for removing carbon dioxide from smokestacks or the atmosphere, could also funnel tens of billions of dollars to fossil fuel companies and other polluters over the next two decades. The House passed the bill last month.Together with the bipartisan infrastructure bill enacted in November, which included more than $12 billion in funding for carbon capture and carbon removal technologies, the Build Back Better legislation would hand fossil fuel companies nearly every item on their carbon capture wishlist.Perhaps the most important change in the bill is a 70 percent increase in the value of the tax credit. The payouts from the expanded credit could be so large that, if energy companies reach the scale they say they can, it could largely wipe away their corporate income tax bills, according to recent comments by Erik Oswald, an ExxonMobil lobbyist.“If you did this at scale, like the gigatons of sequestration I was talking about,” companies’ federal income taxes “would be entirely eaten by that,” he said in a recording obtained by the watchdog group Documented and provided to Inside Climate News.Oswald was speaking at a meeting of the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission, a group of state energy regulators, on November 9, the week before the House passed the Build Back Better package. The comments came in response to a question about whether carbon capture and storage could be viable without government support. Oswald said it could, eventually, suggesting that policy makers could scale back the credit if the technology took off.The legislation passed by the House would not only raise the amount of the tax credit but would also tweak it to allow companies to receive direct payments from the federal government, rather than having to deduct the value from their income tax statements. It also would extend the credit’s eligibility by six years. Some industry executives have said that the changes could finally make the finances work for projects including gas-fired power plants fitted with carbon capture equipment.
Canada Regulators Say No to Long-Term Oil Contracts on Enbridge Mainline - A 28-month fight over access to Enbridge Inc.’s oil Mainline ended in defeat Friday for its plan to sell decades-long contracts to fill 90% of the conduit’s capacity for 3 million b/d to a handful of refineries and brokers. “Mainline contracting would likely reduce the access to pipeline capacity realistically available to certain shippers,” said the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) in a decision to continue a 71-year tradition of filling the pipe with monthly bookings available to all. “The package of tolls, terms, and conditions in the service offering would result in a distribution of benefits and negative impacts that is uneven and disproportionate,” CER stated. Enbridge said Sunday it accepted the CER decision and pledged to begin discussions within weeks on a new package of services, tolls and expansion planning with Mainline shippers. The new deal would replace an agreement that expired in June. “Any negotiated settlement would require CER approval,” said Enbridge. “The negotiating process may take through 2022. We expect the subsequent CER review and decision process to conclude in 2023.” The pipeline firm assured investors that a financially “manageable” settlement would be sought to prevent harm to its corporate books or share prices. “Mainline throughput is expected to be strong over the next several years and the company’s outlook is positive.”
Husky Oil Spill Case Postponed Until January - Lawyers for Husky Energy will return to court in January to answer to charges in connection with the largest oil spill in the history of the province’s offshore. Husky is facing three charges stemming from the incident which occurred three years ago, as crews in the White Rose field were preparing to restart production, which had been suspended due to stormy weather. It’s estimated 250,000 litres of oil spilled into the ocean from a leak in a flowline to the SeaRose FPSO, about 350 kilometres southeast of St. John’s. Husky is accused of causing or allowing the spill to occur, failing to ensure an immediate work stoppage to avoid further pollution, and starting up again before ensuring it was environmentally safe to do so. The spill has been blamed on a faulty connector with underwater cables to the FPSO, but questions were also raised about the speed with which Husky restated operations. In provincial court this week, the case was postponed until January 14, as the defence gathers more disclosure from the Crown.
Quebec to Pay “Significantly More” than $5B to Jilted Utica Drillers -In October the province of Quebec, Canada announced it will expropriate all of the rights for all oil and gas companies in the province to drill and extract oil and natural gas (see Lights Out for All O&G Production in Quebec, Including Utica Shale). It’s all being shut down–including actively producing wells. Shutting down existing businesses in the province is something you might expect in Communist China, or Soviet Russia, or tin-horn dictatorships in South America. It’s not something you expect to see in Western democracies. Yet it’s happening in Quebec, home to a large deposit of the Utica Shale. Now Quebec drillers, those who had planned to tap their vast Utica Shale assets, are demanding Quebec pay up, and the price will be “significantly more” than the $3 billion to $5 billion floated by the province’s energy association.
Quebec: Burning fossil fuels has a cost. Keeping them in the ground also has a price - Quebec killed Utica Resource's business plan — now the company wants billions of dollars in compensation — Mario Lévesque wants the Quebec government to pay him to not drill for oil and gas. Lévesque’s company, Utica Resources, holds 33 exploration licences covering over 5,000 square kilometres of Quebec heartland. Were it up to him, he would be drilling roughly 1,500 metres into the ground to obtain his piece of the estimated 31 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas in Quebec’s portion of the Utica Shale, the same formation from which Pennsylvania and Ohio have wrung riches over the last decade. But it isn’t up to him. Last month, Quebec Premier François Legault announced that the government was effectively banning hydrocarbon extraction in the province. The decision, which Legault said was part of the government’s plan to hit its emissions-reduction targets, effectively killed Utica Resources’ raison d’être . So Lévesque wants compensation for Utica and the other nine licence-holding companies in the province. The starting bid: “significantly more” than the $3 billion to $5 billion floated by the province’s energy association, Lévesque told me the other day. It’s an often-overlooked expense in the push to decarbonize the economy. As countries around the world make it more difficult to find, extract and transport hydrocarbons, the companies that make it their business to do so are demanding billions in compensation. These cases almost invariably end up in court or in trade arbitration, and are potentially very expensive. Consider Calgary-based TC Energy’s Keystone XL Pipeline extension, the proposed conduit for 830,000 daily barrels of oil from Alberta to Nebraska. Presented in 2008, the pipeline extension was rejected in 2015 by the Obama administration, only to have Trump sign it back to life in 2017. Revoking the Keystone permit was among Joe Biden’s first presidential acts. That penstroke, which delighted environmentalists on both sides of the border, could be costly. TC Energy filed a formal request for arbitration last week, seeking over US$15 billion in damages as a result of what it says is a U.S. government breach of North American trade regulations. Meanwhile, four companies are suing European governments under the Energy Charter Treaty, an international agreement governing energy security among its 53 signatories. All told, the four companies are seeking just over US$3.1 billion for instituting laws that protect the environment but damage their bottom lines. The various complaints and lawsuits underscore the fossil fuel industry’s more muscular approach to selling its wares. After decades of trying to be as green as possible—and weathering the resulting accusations of greenwashing—many in the industry are pushing back. Earlier this month, Scott Sheffield, CEO of Texas-based Pioneer Natural Resources, publicly rebuked the Biden administration for its legislative attempts to wean the U.S. off fossil fuels.
‘Pipelines will be blown up,’ says David Suzuki, if leaders don’t act on climate change -- David Suzuki, the godfather of the Canadian environmental movement, warned over the weekend that if politicians don’t act to reverse climate change, there could be attacks against oil and gas infrastructure.“We’re in deep, deep doo-doo,” said Suzuki Saturday, speaking at an Extinction Rebellion protest on Vancouver Island. “This is what we’re come to. The next stage after this, there are going to be pipelines blown up if our leaders don’t pay attention to what’s going on.”Suzuki, reached by the National Post on Monday, said violence within the environmental movement is already happening, although he identified police actions against anti-logging protesters and anti-gas pipeline protesters as the culprits.Asked whether or not he would support the bombing of pipelines, Suzuki said, “Of course not.”“The violence is coming from the authorities, from government, from the RCMP,” said Suzuki. “They’re declaring war against those that are protesting.”Still, Suzuki warned he feels that there are few remaining options for protesters who feel government isn’t moving rapidly enough to tackle climate change. What else is there but violence, he wondered.“I think it’s going to be threatened by groups that feel government isn’t going anything,” Suzuki said.It wouldn’t be unprecedented. In Alberta, in the 1990s, Wiebo Ludwig, who died in 2012, engaged in a running war with the oil and gas sector in northwestern Alberta. He was convicted in 2000 for bombing a Suncor well in 1998, though Ludwig maintained his innocence.“If the oil companies run roughshod over your lives, you have to take defensive action against them, whatever is necessary,” Ludwig said in 1997, after two wells near his home were blown up. “You can’t just let them kill your children.”Alberta Premier Jason Kenney called for Suzuki’s comments to be universally condemned.“This incitement to violence by David Suzuki is dangerous,” he wrote in a tweet on Monday. “In Canada we resolve our differences peacefully and democratically, not with threats of terrorism or acts of violence.”
Canadian Radical Threatens to Blow Up Oil & Gas Pipelines - Leftists are not only anti-fossil fuels and anti-freedom, they’re also (when they eventually don’t convince others with their inane arguments) violent. Case in point: David Suzuki, the so-called godfather of the Canadian environmental movement, warned over the weekend that if politicians don’t act to reverse climate change, there could be attacks against oil and gas infrastructure. He flat-out threatened to blow up pipelines. Why is this man not in jail? Making threats against major infrastructure here in the United States will earn you a quick trip to the clink where you can reconsider your threats against your fellow humans. But apparently not in Canada, where such talk earns you kudos.
Canada's Ambitious New Plan To Save Its Oil Sands -In Canada, a renewable energy trend could lend itself to the oil and gas industry, with the potential for geothermal energy to help oil sands to thrive for another 30 years. Ongoing feasibility studies could provide a way for Canada to reduce its carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement and COP26 expectations without curbing its oil production.Canada’s Oil Sands Innovation Alliance (COSIA) has partnered with Eavor Technologies Inc. and C-FER Technologies to conduct an assessment on the potential for using geothermal energy rather than natural gas to heat water for mining, set to be complete by early 2022. The project was established to curb greenhouse gas emissions in oil production while demand for the energy source is still high. This could be just what Canada’s oil industry needed, as oil sands typically require greater energy in the mining process due to the viscous nature of the substance, often leading to the release of higher levels of greenhouse gasses. The difficult extraction method means production often creates three to five times as many CO2 emissions per barrel of oil equivalent than other crudes. C-FER Technologies and COSIA previously carried out an assessment with promising results, hoping a second study will scale the project to the commercial level. The preliminary study suggests it is possible to use Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), through C-FER’s Eavor-Loop™, in oil sands extraction. The technology collects heat from below the earth’s surface using deep a subsurface heat exchanger, or radiator. C-FER believes it offers the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60 kilotonnes of CO2over a project lifecycle of three decades. Robert Mugo, Director of Greenhouse Gases at COSIA, stated of the project, “this is an exciting step forward in the potential application of this clean energy solution and one of several avenues of innovation that COSIA and its members are pursuing to support the sustainable development of the oil sands through reducing emissions.”
Scoop: Germany urges Congress not to sanction Putin’s pipeline -The German government has urged members of Congress not to sanction the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, arguing that doing so will "weaken" U.S. credibility and "ultimately damage transatlantic unity," according to documents obtained by Axios.: At a time when roughly 100,000 Russian troops are massing at its border, Ukraine views Nord Stream 2 as an existential threat to its security. The pipeline would circumvent Ukrainian transit infrastructure and deliver Russian gas directly to Germany, eliminating one of the last deterrents Ukraine has against an invasion. : President Biden says he opposes the pipeline, but waived sanctions this spring in order to avoid alienating a key U.S. ally over a project that was already close to completion.Biden and German Chancellor Angela Merkel struck a deal in July in which Germany agreed to take action — including pushing for sanctions at the EU level — if Russia "used energy as a weapon" against Ukraine and Europe. Some experts say that's already happening, as Russia has stoked Europe's energy crisis and suggested that soaring gas prices could be alleviated by expediting Nord Stream 2's certification. Dissatisfied Senate Republicans are now pushing for new sanctions as an amendment to the annual must-pass defense bill, with a vote possible as soon as this week. In an attempt to reassure Congress, the German embassy in Washington privately detailed what retaliatory action against Russia could look like in a "non-paper," which is typically used in closed discussions to convey candid policy positions.A Nov. 19 document marked as "classified" outlines steps Germany would take at the national level, including "strong public messages" condemning Russia's behavior; "assessing" the suspension of future political meetings; and reviewing "possible" restrictions on future Russian fossil fuel projects — not including Nord Stream 2. At the EU level, the document says Germany is "actively participating in the process to identify options for additional restrictive measures," without going into further details. The paper claims that Nord Stream 2 currently presents "no threat to Ukraine as long as reasonable gas transit is ensured," and refers to potential sanctions on the pipeline as "a victory for Putin" because it would divide Western allies. The paper is intended to show how serious Germany is about its commitments in the July joint statement, which the Biden administration has held up as the basis for waiving sanctions. But it will do little to satisfy Ukraine or Nord Stream's critics on Capitol Hill.: "Our approach is about far more than alliance maintenance; it's about doing what will be most effective to protect and preserve Ukraine's energy security," a senior State Department official told Axios.
IEA boss blames “deliberate policies” of energy producers for price spikes - Energy producers — not the transition to a greener economy — are a key reason for soaring natural gas and power prices in Europe, according to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol. The price spike is the result of factors including demand growth, supply outages and extreme-weather events, “but also — I want to underline this — some of the deliberate policies of energy producers,” Birol said at the European Hydrogen Week conference in Brussels. He didn’t name specific producers. Birol’s comments come as colder weather threatens to exacerbate a natural gas supply crunch that has pushed prices to record levels in recent months. Europe’s storage sites are seasonally low, and primary supplier Russia has signaled that it has little appetite to boost gas flows to the continent. At the same time, competition for liquefied natural gas is tight due to demand from Asia. Earlier this month, Belarus threatened to shut a key pipeline carrying Russian gas to the European Union amid a dispute over migration. In September, a group of EU lawmakers urged the European Commission to investigate the role of Gazprom PJSC in the increase in gas prices. Meanwhile, Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline project linking Russia to Germany, remains mired in the approval process amid the prospect of U.S. sanctions. Qatar, a major gas exporter, says it’s producing what it can. The energy crunch comes as the EU attempts to shift its economy away from a reliance on fossil fuels in a bid to become the first climate-neutral continent by the middle of the century. A legislative package that would slash emissions still has to be approved by member states. Some countries have warned the pace of transition could leave the continent more exposed to price spikes. Birol said it’s “wrong” to say that high prices are the result of the clean-energy transition. The IEA leader added that the policies of some producing countries don’t make sense, given that gas has been touted as a fuel to help smooth any potential price hiccups during the transition. He warned that if the problem isn’t addressed and evaluated in the right way, it could become a barrier for further climate policies. “The recent price spikes in natural gas did not get good marks from millions of consumers around the world, including Europe,” Birol said. “I am not sure the current gas prices are in the benefit of the gas producers.”
Activists Make Last-Minute Bid to Stop Shell From Blasting for Oil in Whale Breeding Grounds --Activists have made a last-minute bid to stop Royal Dutch Shell from exploring for oil and gas in whalebreeding grounds off the coast of South Africa.The fossil-fuel giant had planned to search for oil and gas reserves by setting off underwater explosions along a stretch of South Africa known as the Wild Coast, according to MSN. The explorations were slated to begin December 1. However, four environmental and human rights organizations filed a legal challenge Monday night to stop the blasting, Greenpeace Africa said.“Shell’s activities threaten to destroy the Wild Coast and the lives of the people living there,” Greenpeace Africa senior climate campaigner Happy Khambule said in a statement about the challenge. “We know that Shell is a climate criminal, destroying people’s lives and the planet for profit.”The Wild Coast stretches along South Africa’s Eastern Cape from Morgan Bay in the south and Port St Johns, according to MSN. It is rich in biodiversity and an important habitat for marine life.“To give you an idea about the Wild Coast, where my family come from, it is the most incredibly breathtaking place one could ever dream of,” concerned citizen Tracy Carter told MSN. “The ocean is lush and abundant with sea life in all shapes and sizes.”The testing was also slated to begin when Southern right and humpback whales are migrating back from South Africa to Antarctica after the breeding period, and the testing could injure or kill the traveling families.The exploratory plans were first approved in 2014, before the country passed its One Environmental Systemlegislation to coordinate mining and environmental regulations, The Guardian reported.The environmental groups behind the court case — Border Deep Sea Angling Association, Kei Mouth Ski Boat Club, Natural Justice and Greenpeace Africa — argue that the exploration is illegal because Shell has not applied for the necessary permit under the National Environmental Management Act (NEMA). They say that the seismic testing would mean that a vessel would fire air guns every 10 seconds for five months. The shock waves would reverberate through three kilometers (approximately 1.9 miles) of water and 40 kilometers (approximately 25 miles) below the seabed into the earth’s crust. This would harm whales, dolphins, sharks, seals, penguins and smaller animals like crabs. It would also have a negative impact on the human communities of eXolobeni, Nqamakwe and Port Saint Johns, who consider the land sacred and rely on eco-tourism and fishing for their livelihoods.
Guyana To Become The 11th Country To Produce Over 1 Million Bpd -The tiny South American nation of Guyana has emerged as the hottest offshore drilling location on the continent over the last six years. The swathe of oil discoveries made byExxonMobil and its partners, Hess and CNOOC, in the offshore Stabroek Block, since 2015, recently saw the energy supermajor upgrade its resources estimate for the block from 9 billion to 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The energy supermajor’s success in offshore Guyana sees it forecasting that it will be pumping over 800,000 barrels of light (32° API gravity) sweet (0.58% sulfur content) crude oil per day by 2026. There are signs that Guyana’s oil boom is gaining greater momentum with other international energy companies expressing interest in developing operations in the country. This comes at a time when considerable headwinds regarding the outlook for crude oil exist, including the demand threats posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the looming arrival of peak oil demand and growing climate change pressures. Despite the risks, Guyana is an attractive jurisdiction for energy companies to operate in because of high-quality crude oil, low breakeven prices and a favorable regulatory environment. The Stabroek Block consortium, led by Exxon, was able to secure a production sharing agreement with Georgetown that has an incredibly low royalty rate of a mere 2%, far lower than any other jurisdiction in South America. Guyana’s government is also on the hook to reimburse the consortium for all development costs, operating expenses, estimated abandonment costs and interest expenses. That is a very lucrative deal for Exxon, Hess and CNOOC, with it expected to be a major contributor to earnings for those energy companies as production in the Stabroek Block ramps up, to 1 million barrels per day or more before the end of the decade.
Egyptian gas should start flowing to Lebanon in the next 3 months, U.S. energy envoy says - Natural gas from Egypt may start flowing to Lebanon within two or three months, and hopefully "long before" the country's elections in 2022, according to Amos Hochstein, the U.S. State Department's senior advisor for global energy security.The governments of four countries in September reached an agreement to pipe gas from Egypt, through Jordan and Syria, to ease the power crisis in Lebanon.At the time, Egypt's Petroleum Minister Tarek El-Molla said the plan, which is backed by the U.S., would be put into action at the "earliest opportunity,"Reuters reported.Hochstein said there is still work to be done before the pipeline is ready, but said he is confident that the plan, as well as an effort to interconnect Jordan and Lebanon's power grids, will succeed."Every week that goes by, I am more optimistic that we're going to be in a position to have the gas flowing, the energy interconnected in the coming couple of two, three months," he told CNBC's Hadley Gamble on Monday.Asked if that could happen before Lebanon's elections, which are scheduled to take place in March 2022, he said he is "quite hopeful [that] at least the gas deal would work, and would have gas flowing long before that."
OPEC to decide on oil output policy as omicron Covid variant rattles markets A group of some of the world's most powerful oil producers is meeting Wednesday to discuss how much of an impact the new omicron Covid variant is likely to have on energy demand. Led by Saudi Arabia, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to meet via videoconference from 1 p.m. London time. The 13-member group will be joined by non-OPEC allies such as Russia on Thursday. There is little sign the broader group, often referred to as OPEC+, intends to change course from its current output plan of a monthly hike of 400,000 barrels per day. OPEC ministers representing Saudi Arabia and Iraq have both indicated the group is likely to sustain this output policy, while non-OPEC leader Russia said earlier this week that there would be no need for urgent action on the oil market. Some analysts have questioned whether OPEC+ may be tempted to take a pause to assess the market, however, citing heightened price volatility and fears over the potential hit to energy demand because of the omicron variant. Indeed, it is thought some OPEC+ producers may struggle to meet their quota next month if the group does push ahead with an output hike. A Reuters survey published on Tuesday found OPEC pumped 27.74 million barrels per day in November, up 220,000 barrels from October, but that was below the 254,000 increase allowed for OPEC members under the OPEC+ agreement. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $72.62 on Wednesday afternoon in London, up over 4.8% for the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $69.24, around 4.6% higher. Oil prices have whipsawed in recent days. Both Brent and WTI futures contracts are on track to register their steepest monthly falls in percentage terms since March last year, Reuters reported, down 16% and 21%, respectively. Brennock said OPEC had several issues to discuss this week, including the potential impact of the omicron variant on future demand, the U.S.-led release of strategic reserves from oil-importing nations and Iran's possible re-entry into the oil markets.
Biden’s Blunder Could Send Oil Prices To $100 - When President Biden announced earlier last week that the federal government would be releasing 50 million barrels of crude from the strategic petroleum reserve, perhaps those around him expected prices to go down significantly and stay down. Instead, prices rose, and OPEC+ gave a heavy hint it might cut supply. By Friday, oil prices fell sharply, but that was due to a new wave of Covid-19 fears and has little if anything to do with Biden's announcement that oil would be unleashed from emergency stockpiles. But what comes next could send oil to $100.Energy analysts warned that a release of SPR may not have the desired effect. They explained that however many barrels the U.S. or its partners in Asia and the UK release, OPEC could withhold more and for longer. They explained that the SPR crude is sour, and refiners don't like it because it needs additional processing to reduce the sulfur content—a process that requires natural gas, which is also expensive currently. These explanations fell on deaf but determined ears. Now, analysts are warning about $100 Brent."It's not going to work simply because the strategic petroleum reserve — any country's strategic petroleum reserve is not there to try to manipulate price," said Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report, speaking to CNBC earlier this week. "There's a considerable amount of bets out there that we will see $100 a barrel oil," he added.John Kilduff of Again Capital put it even more bluntly: "The battle lines are being drawn," hetold Bloomberg this week. "Certainly, OPEC and the Saudis can win this in that they are holding all the cards. They can keep more oil off the market than a SPR release can put on the market. If you see WTI get under $70, then I would expect a response from OPEC+."What's more, the planned release of these 50 million barrels will not happen overnight. It won't happen over a week, either. In fact, the plan is, per an Argus report, to offer long-term loans of up to 32 million barrels of crude from the SPR—sour crude, at that—and to sell another 18 million barrels over several months. For starters, there is no guarantee about the degree of uptake of the oil loans. For seconds, 18 million barrels over a few months amounts to less than 1 million barrels per day on average.
Oil jumps, recouping some losses following worst day of the year - Oil prices jumped Monday as traders bet that Friday's sharp sell-off, prompted by fears that the new omicron Covid variant will curb demand for petroleum products, was overdone. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, gained $1.80, or 2.6%, to settle at $69.95 per barrel. Earlier in the session it traded as high as $72.93, although the contract drifted lower throughout the session and was unable to hold the key $70 level. WTI tumbled 13% on Friday for its worst day since April 2020. It also closed below its 200-day moving average — a closely followed technical indicator — for the first time since November 2020. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, settled 0.99% higher at $73.44 per barrel. The contract declined 11.55% on Friday, and along with WTI registered a fifth straight week of losses. "Friday's price slide was excessive," said analysts at Commerzbank. "Admittedly, the omicron variant is fueling concerns about demand, but it is not yet possible to put any serious figure on what effect this will genuinely have on demand." Even before Friday's sharp drop oil had been trending lower after WTI hit a seven-year high above $85 in October. Brent crude hit a three-year high last month. Given oil's strong 2021 rebound, analysts at RBC added that some of Friday's sell-off can be attributed to traders locking in profits. "At least part of the air pocket lower on Friday was a function of winding down risk, potentially for the year," the firm said Sunday in a note to clients. "Following a strong 11 months of pricing, oil traders would rather de-risk and protect the nest egg, than fight the tide of market moving events like COVID for another month into year-end." Oil's seesaw moves come ahead of a key meeting between OPEC and its oil-producing allies, where the group will decide on production policy for January. The alliance, known as OPEC+, has been returning 400,000 barrels per day to the market each month as it unwinds the historic production cuts it implemented in April 2020 as the pandemic sapped demand for petroleum products. In addition to the latest price action, the group will be evaluating the supply and demand trajectory after the U.S. and other nations last week announced plans to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to curb the rapid rise in fuel costs. The Biden administration said that the U.S. would release 50 million barrels from the SPR.
Oil Futures Down Tuesday Morning-- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange resumed losses Tuesday, sending the U.S. and international benchmarks down as much as 3% in early morning trade as investors re-assess risks of the highly-mutated strain of the coronavirus, omicron, after Moderna's CEO said COVID-19 vaccines were unlikely to be as affective against the new variant as they were against delta, raising concerns over deeper travel controls and delayed demand recovery.When asked about the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the new variant, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said in an interview published this morning, "I think it's going to be a material drop. We just don't know how much yet. Every scientist I spoke to told me it's not going to be good." He also added that it might take months to develop a new vaccine, scale up production and redistribute it. The comments sent global markets back in retreat, with Dow Jones Industrial futures falling as much as 350 points, Treasury bond yields tumbling and U.S. oil benchmarks sliding below $67 per barrel (bbl), down more than $3 bbl in overnight trade. Early assessment of omicron symptoms showed a rather mild illness that could be easily treated at home, but a lot is still unknown about the virus. There is little or no data available whether any omicron patients have been vaccinated or previously infected with another variant of COVID-19. Scientists also don't know how deadly omicron may be among more vulnerable populations. Dutch health authorities announced Tuesday morning that the omicron variant was detected in the country well before flights from South Africa were grounded this weekend, raising the alarm that omicron might have circulated around the world earlier than initially thought. The U.S., UK and several other nations have imposed travel bans on South Africa and neighboring countries associated with the latest COVID variant, dealing a further blow to air travel at the time when fears of winter resurgence in Northern Hemisphere were already rising. Japan on Monday (11/29) followed Israel in shutting its borders completely to foreigners for at least a month, just weeks after it eased entry rules to the country. President Joe Biden, however, ruled out any return to the lockdowns for the U.S. Against this backdrop, OPEC+ ministers postponed their monthly meeting until Thursday (12/2) to assess the impact of tougher travel restrictions on global demand growth. Renewed COVID controls could alter the group's output, which was jointly expected to bring back next month 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of their record 9.7 million bpd cuts introduced at the beginning of the pandemic. OPEC+ still has about 3.8 million bpd of these cuts in place and some analysts suggest that should the coalition choose to support prices against the threat of the emerging variant, it might forgo planned increases until February, buying more time for the market to recover.
Oil prices fall nearly 5 pct on jitters over vaccine efficacy -Oil prices tumbled nearly 5 percent on Tuesday after Moderna’s chief cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron coronavirus variant, spooking financial markets and adding to worries about oil demand. The head of drugmaker Moderna told the Financial Times that COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant of the coronavirus as they have been against the Delta variant. Brent crude futures fell $2.76, or 3.76 percent, to $70.68 a barrel at 1338 GMT after slipping to an intraday low of $70.22, their lowest since late August. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $2.86, or 4 percent, close to $67 a barrel, after falling to a session low of $66.51. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also tell US lawmakers later in the day the variant could imperil economic recovery, prepared remarks show. “The economic impact is driven by fear, and by the policy response... Fear is impacting travel. There are outright bans. But also the fear of being stranded which causes travel plans to alter,” Paul Donovan from UBS said in a note. Oil plunged around 12 percent on Friday along with other markets on fears the heavily mutated Omicron would spark fresh lockdowns and dent global oil demand. It is still unclear how severe the new variant is. With a weakening demand outlook , expectations are growing that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries, Russia and their allies, together called OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to supply in January. . Pressure was already growing within OPEC+, due to meet on Dec. 2, to reconsider its supply plan after last week’s release of emergency crude reserves by the United States and other major oil-consuming nations to address soaring prices. “Following the global strategic reserve releases and the announcement of dozens of countries restricting travel... OPEC and its allies can easily justify an output halt or even a slight cut,”
Oil Slumps on Omicron Fears; Posts Biggest Monthly Fall in 20 Months -- Crude futures ended November with their biggest monthly declines since the outset of the pandemic, as the new variant, along with expectations that coming emergency reserve releases will juice growing supply, has cut the legs out of the market's year-long rally. The head of drugmaker Moderna Inc told the Financial Times that COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant of the coronavirus as they have been against the Delta variant. Brent crude futures fell $2.87, or 3.9%, to settle at $70.57 a barrel, after hitting an intraday low of $70.22, lowest since August. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended $3.77, or 5.4%, lower at $66.18 a barrel. The benchmark dropped to a session low of $64.43, also its lowest since August. WTI edged up in post-settlement trade to $66.74, after industry data showed a smaller U.S. crude stock drawdown than the 1.2 million barrels forecast in a Reuters poll. Stocks fell 747,000 barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Government data will be released on Wednesday. For November, Brent fell by 16.4%, while WTI fell 20.8%, the biggest monthly fall since March 2020. Also pressuring prices, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank likely will discuss speeding its reduction of large-scale bond purchases at its next policy meeting, amid a strong economy and expectations that a surge in inflation will persist into the middle of next year. Activity in later-dated futures contracts shows that the market is becoming less worried about demand outstripping supply in the short term, and of oversupply in the first half of next year. The premium on Brent and U.S. crude contracts expiring in one month versus those expiring in six months has narrowed to its lowest levels since March. This metric is closely watched by traders as an indicator for future supply; the higher the cost of the near-dated contract, the more worries there are about a coming supply deficit. Brent's six-month backwardation narrowed to around $1.50 per barrel, the lowest since March. WTI's six-month backwardation fell to about $1.90 per barrel, its lowest since September. That reduced premium indicates less worry about future supply and current levels of demand. It is unclear if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries and their allies, together called OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to supply in January. The group was already weighing the effects of last week's announcement by the United States and other countries to release emergency crude reserves to temper energy prices.
Oil Prices Jump More Than 4% Ahead Of OPEC+ Meeting Oil prices are up sharply as ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) prepare to meet amid ongoing market volatility.Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rallied as much as 4.6% after losing almost $4 U.S. a barrel yesterday (November 30). That selloff was driven by escalating concerns over the impact on demand of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and prospects for a faster tapering of stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve.The focus now shifts to the reaction from producers. OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meet over the next few days (December 1-2) to set output policy, with some analysts expecting the group to pause supply hikes.The U.S. frustrated OPEC+ last week by announcing a release from its strategic oil reserves, although America has since moved to cool tensions with Saudi Arabia.WTI for January rose 4.2% to $68.93 U.S. a barrel in London trading. Brent crude oil for February settlement climbed 4.5% to $72.31 U.S. a barrel.Oil's volatility has spiked, with WTI closing down 13% at the end of last week before climbing on Monday and slumping again on Tuesday of this week. Gauges of swings in both WTI and Brent crude oil are at their highest level since May 2020.
WTI Slips After US Crude Production Rise, Big Product Inventory Builds -After yesterday's plunge, crude prices rebounded overnight after a modest API draw, helped by a Goldman report putting the plunge in context as being dramatically overdone. OPEC+ uncertainty is weighing on prices this morning however ahead of today's official inventory/production data.OPEC+ has “erred on the side of caution since it began slowly boosting supplies,” said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.A potential decision to shelve January’s planned increase and keep quotas flat “comports with its cautious approach.”While OPEC+ and the omicron variant dominating the market, there is also another wildcard in the background - the Iranian nuclear deal. Diplomats are working on a draft agreement, state-run Press TV reported, but there was little sign of an imminent deal after talks resumed on Monday. DOE:
- Crude -909k (-1.45mm exp, -700k API)
- Cushing +1.159mm
- Gasoline +4.059mm - biggest build since June
- Distillates +2.16mm - biggest build since July
A smaller than expected crude draw and major product builds are not what the bullsih doctor ordered...Cushing stocks continue to hover near multi-year lows (anything below 30m bbls is considered significantly low) but rose for the 3rd straight week (the longest streak since August)...
Oil Futures Pare Gains as Products Build, Output Rises -- Crude and refined product futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange pared a portion of overnight gains late morning Wednesday after an inventory report from the Energy Information Administration showed domestic crude oil production jumped to an 18-month high at 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd) last week and, despite refinery runs rising by a smaller-than-expected margin, nationwide gasoline and distillate fuels supplies registered large builds.Offsetting bearish parts of the reports, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 909,000 barrels (bbl) from the previous week to 433.1 million bbl compared with expectations for stocks to have added 800,000 bbl. The draw was realized even as domestic refiners raised run rates by a modest 0.2% to 88.8%, missing market expectations for a 0.6% increase. U.S. producers, meanwhile, raised production by 100,000 bpd to 11.6 million bbl -- the highest weekly output rate since April 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic reigned havoc on the domestic oil industry. U.S. oil production still stands 1.4 million bpd below its pre-pandemic peak of 13 million bpd. Oil stored at Cushing in Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures, rose 1.2 million bbl from the previous week to 28.5 million bbl.The bearish parts of the report were found in in the fuels complex, showing demand for gasoline and distillates weakened during the Thanksgiving holiday week and stockpiles unexpectedly increased. Gasoline inventories jumped 4 million bbl to 215.4 million bbl compared with analyst expectations for inventories to have decreased 500,000 bbl. Gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of demand, declined 538,000 bpd last week to 8.796 million bpd, likely reflecting demand pulled forward during the previous week as suppliers staged product near retail centers.Distillate stocks, meanwhile, rose 2.2 million bbl to 123.9 million bbl last week, and are now about 9% below the five-year average, EIA said. Analysts expected distillate inventories would remain unchanged from the previous week. Distillate supplied to the U.S. market decreased by 182,000 bpd from the previous week to 4.209 million bpd. Distillate demand looks to have peaked for the fourth quarter, albeit at a far higher level than was seen both last year and in 2019.Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.7 million bpd, up 7.1% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.2 million bpd, up 10.6% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.3 million bpd over the past four weeks, up 6.1% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 34.5% compared with the same four-week period last year.
Oil Rebounds on OPEC, Only to Drop Back on 1st US Omicron Case - Oil prices recovered from 3-month lows on Wednesday in anticipation of supportive action from OPEC, before closing lower for a fifth time in six days after the United States announced its first Omicron case of Covid.WTI, or the West Texas Intermediate benchmark for U.S. crude settled down 61 cents, or almost 1%, at $65.57 per barrel, after rebounding to $69.49 earlier in the session. WTI has lost almost 17% since its last positive close of $78.50 on Nov. 23. It is also down more than 23% from the seven-year high of $85.41 notched in mid-October.London-traded Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, settled down 36 cents, or 0.5%, at $68.87. Brent has lost 16% since its last positive close of $82.31 a week ago. It is also down 21% from its seven-year high of $86.70 attained in mid-October. “There’re still lots of moving parts to this Omicron thing, but I imagine that will be the first target for WTI before we try to take out $60.”The US individual infected with the latest-discovered variant of Covid is a California resident who had traveled home from South Africa on Nov. 22, top U.S. virologist Dr. Anthony Fauci told a news conference. The person was fully vaccinated, has mild symptoms and is self-quarantining.The news dragged down crude prices, already weighed by unsupportive weekly supply-demand inventory data released by the Energy Information Administration.The 13-member OPEC, or Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia met on Wednesday before a larger summit due on Thursday with 10 other oil producers steered by Russia. OPEC did not divulge any production plans on Wednesday, meaning that it could be up to the 23-nation OPEC+ alliance to decide how producers react to what could be the second biggest crisis in oil demand since the onset of the first Covid outbreak 20 months ago.
OPEC+ to hike January output as planned, but meeting is ongoing -- OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers, an influential group known as OPEC+, decided on Thursday to stick to a previously agreed upon plan of hiking output by 400,000 barrels per day in January. However the alliance said in a statement that "the meeting remains in session," meaning they can "make immediate adjustments" should the current market conditions shift.In what was a hotly anticipated meeting, the energy alliance convened via videoconference to determine whether to stick with its plan to release more oil into the market or to restrain supply amid fears over the omicron Covid-19 variant. Other issues on the table included a U.S.-led release of strategic reserves from crude-importing nations and Iran's possible re-entry into oil markets.Oil clawed back early losses to trade in the green following the announcement, which some believed was already priced into the market.International benchmark Brent crude futures advanced 1.1% to $69.95 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $66.43 per barrel, for a gain of 1.3%.Energy analysts broadly had expected OPEC+ to push ahead with its current plan to hike monthly output by 400,000 barrels per day. However, some had questioned whether the group may be tempted to take a pause to assess the market following a period of heightened price volatility."We think OPEC+ are likely to maintain that momentum in releasing additional oil," Alex Booth, head of research at Kpler, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday."Let's not forget, we're talking about additional oil in January, the decision for December has basically already been made."
Oil Futures Whipsaw After OPEC+ Proceeds With Output Hike - After sideways trade for most of the session Thursday, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled higher. Investors reassessed near-term supply fundamentals after OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to proceed with a 400,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) production increase next month in a move that will likely exacerbate a buildup in global oil inventories early next year but reduce the cartel's own spare capacity faster than estimated.OPEC+ Ministerial Committee Meeting concluded Thursday with a surprise decision to keep production quotas intact despite growing concerns over the rapid spread of the omicron COVID variant and signs of rapidly building global oil inventories. The group's technical panel estimated oil market is rapidly moving into oversupply, with gains in production seen outpacing demand by 2 million bpd next month and widening further to 3.4 million bpd in February. In March, OPEC+ expects surplus on the global market to reach a whopping 3.8 million bpd.Making matters worse, the new COVID-19 variant has upended international air travel this week, triggering renewed quarantine controls and curbs on economic activity. Germany banned all unvaccinated people on Thursday from entering bars and restaurants and the United States tightened testing requirements on all international travelers entering the country. Japan and Israel have suspended all inbound flights for December.Against this backdrop, traders upped their bets that OPEC+ would forgo a planned production increase until at least February to balance the market this winter. Analysts at JP Morgan estimated that a three-month pause of production increases is needed to reverse a restocking pattern in global inventories.The surprise decision, meanwhile, could be a strategy to reduce OPEC+ spare capacity at a faster rate next year and to undermine investment in the U.S. shale industry. OPEC's "true" spare capacity next year is estimated at 2 million bpd or 43% below previously held consensus of 4.8 million bpd, according to JP Morgan. The cartel is already struggling to increase production in line with agreed quotas plagued by chronic underinvestment and political unrest in a number of African oil producing countries. A Reuters survey published on Tuesday found OPEC pumped 27.74 million bpd in November, up 220,000 bpd from October, but that was below the 254,000-bpd increase allowed for OPEC members under the OPEC+ agreement.
Oil rises as OPEC+ sticks to January output hike -- OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers, an influential group known as OPEC+, decided on Thursday to stick to a previously agreed upon plan of hiking output by 400,000 barrels per day in January.However the alliance said in a statement that "the meeting remains in session," meaning they can "make immediate adjustments" should the current market conditions shift.In what was a hotly anticipated meeting, the energy alliance convened via videoconference to determine whether to stick with its plan to release more oil into the market or to restrain supply amid fears over the omicron Covid-19 variant. Other issues on the table included a U.S.-led release of strategic reserves from crude-importing nations and Iran's possible re-entry into oil markets.Oil clawed back early losses to trade in the green following the announcement, which some believed was already priced into the market.International benchmark Brent crude futures rose 1.16%, or 80 cents, to end the day at $69.67 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled 1.4%, or 93 cents, higher at $66.50 per barrel. Energy analysts broadly had expected OPEC+ to push ahead with its current plan to hike monthly output by 400,000 barrels per day. However, some had questioned whether the group may be tempted to take a pause to assess the market following a period of heightened price volatility. "We think OPEC+ are likely to maintain that momentum in releasing additional oil," "Let's not forget, we're talking about additional oil in January, the decision for December has basically already been made." Brent crude futures have slumped more than $10 since last Thursday when the emergence of the omicron Covid variant became widely known. The World Health Organization has said it will take weeks to understand how the variant may affect diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines.OPEC+ has an agreement in place to add 400,000 barrels a month to global supplies as it gradually reverses last year's record supply cuts of roughly 10 million barrels per day.OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has indicated the group is likely to sustain this output policy, while non-OPEC leader Russia said earlier this week that there would be no need for urgent action on the oil market.
Oil Jumps As OPEC+ Leaves The Door Open To Revisiting Supply Increase - Oil prices rose by 3% early on Friday, extending gains from late Thursday, after the OPEC+ alliance said it could immediately revisit the planned 400,000 bpd increase for January if demand suffers in coming weeks. As of 9:25 a.m. EST on Friday, WTI Crude was rallying 3.49% at $68.82 and Brent Crude was up 3.67% to $72.23. OPEC+ decided on Thursday to stick to its initial plans to add 400,000 barrels per day to its collective oil production each month, to the surprise of some analysts who had expected a pause in the monthly supply additions in light of an expected oversupply early next year, a potential impact of the Omicron variant, and SPR releases from several nations led by the United States. As early as the dust settled after the OPEC+ meeting, oil prices erased losses and bounced back on Thursday, after OPEC said that the group “agree that the meeting shall remain in session pending further developments of the pandemic and continue to monitor the market closely and make immediate adjustments if required.” Analysts interpreted the wording as OPEC+ leaving the door open to a flexible approach to production and the group potentially meeting before the next scheduled meeting on January 4 if signs emerge of a serious impact of the new COVID variant on oil demand. “The market appears to have taken comfort in the fact that OPEC+ is willing to reconvene and adjust production if necessary due to the Omicron variant,” “The decision by the group appears to be an attempt to buy themselves more time,” According to Saxo Bank, the market rallied after the meeting due to several reasons. These include the fact that traders have already priced in a significant and not yet realized drop in demand, the OPEC+ flexibility to make changes before January, the easing of the US-OPEC+ tensions, and the already months-long struggle of some OPEC+ members to pump to their quotas.
WTI, Brent Down 5% Week Over Week on Omicron Variant, Oversupply Risks -- Nearby delivery oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Friday's session mostly lower, with both U.S. and international crude benchmarks registering steep weekly losses. The losses came amid a one-two punch with the winter season resurgence in COVID-19 infections across the Northern Hemisphere and concerns over the emergence of a highly mutated omicron variant of coronavirus, with both developments potentially derailing the recovery in global jet fuel demand. Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led partners decided this week to release more supplies into the market early next year despite clear signals of near-term demand weakness. OPEC+'s technical panel estimated oil market is rapidly moving into oversupply next year, with gains in production seen outpacing demand by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) next month and widening further to 3.4 million bpd in February. In March, OPEC+ expects a surplus on the global market to reach a whopping 3.8 million bpd. Nevertheless, the group agreed Thursday, Dec. 2, to raise production quotas by 400,000 bpd as planned, shrugging off market jitters over the emergence of Omicron and U.S.-coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves in a handful of countries. OPEC+'s official communique said it stood ready to reconvene "pending further developments of the pandemic and continue to monitor the market closely and make immediate adjustments if required." Latest reports suggest Omicron is spreading twice as fast as other variants in the country of its origin. It remains unclear whether COVID-19 vaccines are as affective against this variant as they were with now dominant Delta strain. The consensus in the oil industry so far is that international air travel will feel an immediate impact from renewed travel controls imposed by the governments of European Union, United States, and Asia. After showing growth early in the fourth quarter, a long-awaited recovery in jet fuel demand has now been pushed further in 2022 as consumers begin to pull back on international air travel. As this pocket of demand evaporates, the oil market is left with a big hole that is seen rapidly expanding with more non-OPEC supplies hitting the market. S&P Platts Analytics estimates global oil demand would likely contract by a sharp 1.6 million bpd from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of 2022 on a combination of seasonal weakness and the winter resurgence of COVID-19 infections. Separately, U.S. Labor Department reported on Friday the economy added a disappointing 210,000 new jobs in November compared with expectations for at least 500,000 new positions opened. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, dropped more than expected to 4.2% from 4.6% -- the lowest level since the pandemic began. On the session, West Texas Intermediate January futures slipped $0.24 to settle at $66.26 per barrel (bbl) and the international benchmark ICE February Brent contract posted a gain of $0.21 for a $69.88-per-bbl settlement. NYMEX RBOB January futures moved down 1.48 cents to $1.9529 per gallon, and the front-month NYMEX ULSD contract weakened 0.5 cent to $2.0984 gallon.
Oil drops for sixth straight week as Omicron jolts markets Oil slid for a sixth straight week, marking the longest stretch of weekly declines since 2018, as the omicron variant jolts markets and OPEC+ continues to hike supply.West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 2.8% this week. The spread of the omicron variant has investors concerned about any potential hit to demand as the U.S. reported at least six states with cases. Covid-19 infections in South Africa have almost quadrupled since Tuesday. Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies this week decided to add 400,000 barrels a day of crude to global markets in January, ultimately bowing to consumer pressure. “The short-term demand outlook was shaky at best and if the U.S. sees new restrictions, the oil market could see a supply surplus by the end of the month,”Crude has dropped sharply since late October amid moves by major consuming nations to tap their reserves and the emergence of the new virus variant. A more hawkish Federal Reserve was put in a tough spot Friday as U.S. jobs data missed expectations. Meanwhile, the sharp increase in volatility has oil traders heading for the exit, with open interest across the main oil futures contracts plunging to its lowest level in years.While OPEC+ decided to continuing supplying the market with barrels, the group essentially placed a floor under prices by giving itself the option to change the plan at short notice. Prior to this week’s meeting, ministers indicated they were concerned about the impact of omicron on crude demand but were struggling to figure out how serious the new strain would become. By effectively keeping its monthly meeting open, the alliance now has more flexibility to address price swings.West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery slipped 24 cents to settle at $66.26 a barrel in New York Brent for February settlement rose 21 cents to settle at $69.88 a barrel Meanwhile, in Vienna, diplomats attempting to restore the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers face substantial challenges that need urgent solutions, the top European envoy said Friday. Talks are set to resume in the middle of next week.
The Inevitable Recovery Of Iran’s Oil Industry -Iran’s recent hydrocarbon agreement with Azerbaijan is the latest in a string of developments that demonstrate the country’s determination to overcome U.S. sanctions. Its plans to boost oil production to 5 million bpd and its improving trade relations with China suggest that Iran will not be back by Biden for much longer. Iran and Azerbaijan are expected to finalize a number of energy deals that would see joint development of a new oil field off the coast of Iran, adding to the energy cooperation between the two states. In 2018, the two countries signed a convention stating that resources from the Caspian sea would be shared with neighboring countries Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan. Talks over a joint development between the two states are not uncommon, with previous discussions taking place in 2018 but resulting in no action. Few details have been released about the most recent talks, meaning nothing is official quite yet. Azerbaijan hopes to boost its gas production to 47.5 Bcm by 2025, as international demand for gas continues to rise, ensuring national energy security and the potential to export. Azerbaijan has already improved its connectivity to Europe with the opening of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) gas pipeline in December 2020, connecting it with Greece and Bulgaria. The country is now in talks with countries around Europe about increasing its gas exports as demand across the region rises. Iran, which saw an output of 2.52 million bpd of crude in October, is hoping to raise this production level even higher. Despite little progress with ongoing talks over a nuclear agreement with the U.S., Iran plans to continue increasing its oil production, aiming to reach an output of 5 million bpd, and hoping to produce 4 million bpd as soon as March 2022. The country’s oil minister, Javad Owji, stated that he was targeting $145 billion of foreign and domestic investment in the energy sector over the next eight years. Talks between the U.S. and Iran, with representatives from Iran, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom, resumed this week in Vienna following the sixth round of talks in June. However, Iran is adamant that if an agreement is reached, the U.S. must lift all sanctions imposed in 2018, while the U.S. would like to maintain certain sanctions around human rights and terrorism.Meanwhile, China is buying even more Iranian crude, opting for cheap prices even as U.S. sanctions on the oil-rich state hold strong. China continues to risk retaliation from the U.S. for breaking its sanction agreement on Iranian oil, importing over half a million bpd on average for the last three months, accounting for around 6 percent of China's crude oil imports. This figure could increase if Covid-19 restrictions ease across the country and demand for oil goes up.
Channel drowning survivor reveals UK, French police left them to die Mohamed Shekha Ahmad, a 21-year-old Kurd who is one of two survivors of the mass drowning of migrants on November 24 in the English Channel, spoke Monday to the Kurdish Rudaw News Agency. He revealed that French and British police both ignored desperate pleas for help from the refugees as they drowned. This exposes cynical lies told by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, French Prime Minister Jean Castex, and French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, blaming “people smugglers” for migrant deaths off the coasts of Europe. The group of 33 to 35 migrants arrived at the French coast near Dunkirk around 6pm. There were fifteen Kurds from Iraq, four Kurds from Iran, four Somalis, four Ethiopians, two Egyptians and one Vietnamese. There were women and children, including a 3-year-old girl and two young Kurdish women, Maryam Nuri Mohamad Amin and another named Muhabad, trying to join their fiancés in Britain. Mohamed, a construction worker, said he hopes to work in Britain to raise money for his sister, Fatima, to get treatment of fused discs in her spine. The group left France aboard a flimsy inflatable dinghy between 8 and 10pm, but several hours later, the dinghy’s air tube began to leak massively, and large amounts of water came into the boat. Mohamed said, “The right side of the boat was losing air. Some people were pumping air into it, and others were bailing the water from the boat. Then after a bit, we called the French police and said, ‘help us, our pump stopped working.’ Then we sent our location to the French police and they said, ‘you’re in British waters’ … we called Britain. They said call the French police. Two people were calling, one was calling France and another was calling Britain.” Both French and British police refused to help the drowning migrants, leaving them to die in freezing waters. “Britain should have come on board, because we drowned in the Channel. They didn’t help us or do anything for us,” Mohamed said, adding that the dinghy had reached British waters. He explained, “British police didn’t help us and the French police said, ‘You’re in British waters, we can’t come.’ Then, as we were slowly drowning, the people lost hope and let go. Then the waves took us back to France.
S.Korea factory activity grows for 14th month but output shrinks, orders slow – PMI (Reuters) - South Korea's factory activity expanded further in November, though output shrank for a second straight month, signalling that Asia's fourth-largest economy is struggling to fully regain momentum in the face of persistent supply chain disruptions. The IHS Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) for November edged up to 50.9 from 50.2 in October, and managed to hold above the 50-mark threshold that indicates expansion in activity, for a 14th straight month. "Despite the headline PMI rising slightly in November, this masked a second successive contraction in output levels, while new order growth broadly stagnated as supply shortages hit demand," said Usamah Bhatti, economist at IHS Markit. Output continued to shrink on shortages of materials, notably in the semiconductors market, while slowing new orders put more strains on firms. Total new orders and export orders barely grew, as higher demand in key Asian markets such as Japan, mainland China and Taiwan were offset by supply difficulties in the automotive industry. Adding to the challenge, manufacturers faced more cost burdens, with input prices rising at their quickest pace since the survey began in April 2004, due to higher raw material costs. That led firms to pass higher costs on to clients, pushing factory gate inflation to a four-month high, and reduce staffing levels for a second straight month. Firms, however, were optimistic over the coming year that supply chain pressure would ease amid a global recovery in demand, with business confidence improving to a three-month high.
Concerts are returning to South Korea, but fans aren’t allowed to sing along. At the first BTS concert of the coronavirus era on Saturday, Maggie Larin, 25, and her three friends were surrounded by a roaring crowd of 70,000 other fans in SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.But when Lee Hye Su, 23, and her two friends go to see the K-pop group The Boyz in Seoul Olympic Park next weekend, she will be seated silently, masked and socially distanced, alongside only 2,100 other fans, according to the venue’s rules.As K-pop bands start touring the world and performing for live audiences again, fans in their home country, South Korea, are flocking to stadiums. But they must abide by the government’s strict rules: no shouting, chanting or singing along at concerts with 500 or more attendees.“We’ll only be able to clap when we enter the hall,” said Ms. Lee, who has followed the band since 2018. She said it was unfortunate that the atmosphere on Saturday would be different from that of past concerts, where she could yell all she wanted.“But I knew I had to go as soon as I found out about it,” she said.Live K-pop concerts are returning to South Korea as hospitalizations are rising across the country and the spread of a new variant alarms the world. The health minister, Kwon Deok-cheol, said on Friday that the government was considering tightening some restrictions because the number of available beds for critically ill patients in and around Seoul was “reaching a limit.”
China's Nov factory activity slips back into contraction - Caixin PMI (Reuters) - China's factory activity fell back into contraction in November as subdued demand, shrinking employment and elevated prices weighed on manufacturers, a business survey showed on Wednesday. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.9 in November from 50.6 the month before, versus analyst expectations of 50.5 in a Reuters poll. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. The world's second-largest economy, which staged an impressive rebound from last year's pandemic slump, has lost momentum since the second half as it grapples with a slowing manufacturing sector, debt problems in the property market and COVID-19 outbreaks. Analysts expect the slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP)seen in the third-quarter to continue in the fourth with demand expected to remain soft given the prolonged global COVID-19 pandemic. The findings from the private survey, which focuses more on small firms in coastal regions, stood in contrast with those in an official survey on Tuesday that showed manufacturing activity grew for the first time in three months. "Supply in the manufacturing sector recovered, while demand weakened. Relaxing constraints on the supply side, especially the easing of the power crunch, quickened the pace of production recovery," said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, in a statement accompanying the data release. "But demand was relatively weak, suppressed by the COVID-19 epidemic and rising product prices."
India Nov factory growth hits 10-month high on strong demand – PMI (Reuters) - India's manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in 10 months in November, buoyed by a strong pick-up in demand, but higher inflationary pressure left factories worried about their future prospects, a private survey showed on Wednesday. An easing of COVID-19 restrictions drove demand and boosted sales, indicating the economy was on the path to normalization. Compiled by IHS Markit, the Purchasing Managers' Index INPMI=ECI rose to 57.6 in November from 55.9 in October. The reading was the highest since January and the fifth straight month above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. "The Indian manufacturing industry continued to expand in November, with growth gathering pace and forward-looking indices generally pointing to further improvements in the months to come," said Pollyanna De Lima, economics associate director at IHS Markit. "The fact that firms purchased additional inputs at a stronger rate amid efforts to restock, combined with recurring declines in inventories of finished goods and tentative signs of a pick-up in hiring activity, indicate that production volumes will likely expand further in the near-term." New orders improved sharply - the strongest since February - mostly driven by domestic demand. That resulted in production rising for a fifth consecutive month and at the fastest pace in nine months. Firms increased headcount to meet the elevated demand, ending a three-month sequence of reduction, although the pace of job creation was minimal. But the optimism was darkened to some extent by soaring input price inflation. Barring October, the input prices sub-index was at the highest in almost eight years owing to supply constraints and rising transportation costs. "Should raw material scarcity and shipping issues continue to feed through to purchasing prices, substantial increases in output charges could be seen and demand resilience would be tested," De Lima said.
Asian factories shake off supply headaches but Omicron presents new risks (Reuters) - Asian factory activity grew in November as crippling supply bottlenecks eased, but rising input costs and renewed weakness in China dampened the region's prospects for an early, sustained recovery from pandemic paralysis. The newly detected Omicron coronavirus variant has emerged as a fresh worry for the region's policymakers, who are already grappling with the challenge of steering their economies out of the doldrums while trying to tame inflation amid rising commodity costs and parts shortages. China's factory activity fell back into contraction in November, the private Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed on Wednesday, as soft demand and elevated prices hurt manufacturers. The findings from the private survey, which focuses more on small firms in coastal regions, stood in contrast with those in China's official PMI on Tuesday that showed manufacturing activity unexpectedly rose in November, albeit at a very modest pace. "Relaxing constraints on the supply side, especially the easing of the power crunch, quickened the pace of production recovery," said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, in a statement accompanying the data release. "But demand was relatively weak, suppressed by the COVID-19 epidemic and rising product prices." Beyond China, however, factory activity seemed to be on the mend with PMIs showing expansion in countries ranging from Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines. Japan's PMI rose to 54.5 in November, up from 53.2 in October, the fastest pace of expansion in nearly four years. South Korea's PMI edged up to 50.9 from 50.2 in October, holding above the 50-mark threshold that indicates expansion in activity for a 14th straight month. But output shrank in South Korea for a second straight month as Asia's fourth-largest economy struggles to fully regain momentum in the face of persistent supply chain disruptions. Vietnam's PMI rose to 52.2 in November form 52.1 in October, while that of the Philippines increased to 51.7 from 51.0. Taiwan's manufacturing activity continued to expand in November but at a slower pace, with the index hitting 54.9 compared with 55.2 in October. The picture was similar for Indonesia, which saw PMI ease to 53.9 from 57.2 in October.
Japan to bar all foreign visitors over Omicron variant -Japan says it will bar the entry of all foreign visitors from around the world, just weeks after a softening of strict entry rules, following the emergence of the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus.“We will ban the (new) entry of foreigners from around the world starting from November 30,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters, saying the measures would take effect on Tuesday. Over the weekend, Japan tightened entry restrictions for people arriving from South Africa and eight other countries in the region, requiring them to undergo a 10-day quarantine at government-designated facilities.Monday’s announcement means Japan will restore border controls it eased earlier this month for short-term business visitors, foreign students and workers.The country has recorded just over 18,300 coronavirus deaths during the pandemic but has avoided tough lockdowns. About 76.5 percent of the population is now fully inoculated, despite a slow start.Many other countries have moved to tighten their borders after the discovery of the new omicron variant, which was identified last week by researchers in South Africa.Little is known about the strain, including whether it is more contagious, more likely to cause serious illness or more able to evade the protection of vaccines, but that has not stopped countries from Israel to Morocco, the United Kingdom and Singapore from rushing to act.Noting that the variant has already been detected in many countries and that closing borders often has limited effect, the World Health Organization (WHO) has called for frontiers to remain open.In a statement, the WHO said it “stands with African nations” and noted that travel restrictions may play “a role in slightly reducing the spread of COVID-19 but place a heavy burden on lives and livelihoods.”
Australia bars foreign arrivals from nine African countries. - Australia has closed its borders to nine southern African countries in response to the emerging Omicron coronavirus variant, the government announced on Saturday.Effective immediately, noncitizens from South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini (the former Swaziland), the Seychelles, Malawi and Mozambique, will not be able to enter the country, health officials said. All flights from the nine countries will be immediately suspended for 14 days. Australian citizens who arrive from those countries will need to quarantine in a hotel for two weeks, and anyone who has already arrived from those countries in the last two weeks must immediately isolate.“These actions are taken on the basis of cautious prevention,” Health Minister Greg Hunt said at a news conference on Saturday. “We’re in a strong position but we know that acting early is what has protected Australia throughout the pandemic.”He added that the government would “not hesitate” to expand the travel ban to other countries depending on how the situation develops in coming days and weeks.No cases of the Omicron variant have been recorded yet in Australia, he said, although 20 people who recently arrived from South Africa are isolating in a quarantine camp. One person out of the 20 has tested positive and the case is being studied, he said.
Japan bans all foreign travelers, and Australia delays its reopening. Japan on Monday joined Israel and Morocco in barring all foreign travelers, and Australia delayed reopening its borders for two weeks, as more countries sealed themselves off in response to the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus.The Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, said that Japan would reverse a move earlier this month to reopen its borders to short-term business travelers and international students. Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, has been closed to tourists since early in the pandemic, a policy it has maintained even as other wealthy nations reopened to vaccinated visitors.Some countries proceeded with their plans to reopen on Monday, like Singapore and Malaysia, which opened their land border. South Korea, on the other hand, announced that it was delaying any loosening of social distancing restrictions.Australia said on Monday that it would delay by two weeks its plan to reopen its borders to international students, skilled migrants and travelers from Japan and South Korea. The country said it would use the delay, to Dec. 15, to study whether the Omicron variant is more dangerous than the Delta variant, which raced across the world earlier this year.Israel reopened to vaccinated tourists only four weeks ago.Hours after Israel announced its blanket ban over the weekend, Morocco said on Sunday that it would deny entry to all travelers, even Moroccan citizens, for two weeks beginning Monday. The country is banning all incoming and outgoing flights over the two-week period.The moves by Japan, Israel and Morocco stood in contrast to those in places like the United States, Britain, Canada and the European Union, which have all announced bans on travelers only from southern Africa.Meanwhile, Indonesia on Monday joined a small but growing list of countries to bar travel with Hong Kong as well as the southern African region. Hong Kong detected two cases of Omicron on Thursday, prompting India, Pakistan and other nations to impose a travel ban.In Japan, all foreign travelers except those who are residents of the country will be barred from entering starting at midnight on Monday.In Israel, all foreign nationals will be banned from entering for at least 14 days, except for urgent humanitarian cases to be approved by a special exceptions committee. Returning vaccinated Israelis will be tested upon landing and must self-quarantine for three days, pending results of another P.C.R. test. Unvaccinated Israelis will have to self-quarantine for seven days.Israelis returning from countries classified as “red,” with high risk of infection, including most African countries, must enter a quarantine hotel until they receive a negative result from the airport test, then transfer to home quarantine (until they get a 7-day P.C.R. test result). Japan has yet to report any cases of the new variant, though it is studying a case involving a traveler from Namibia. Israel has identified at least one confirmed case of Omicron so far — a woman who arrived from Malawi — and testing has provided indications of several more likely cases in the country.
WHO Recommends People Aged 60 & Above Postpone Travel Due To Omicron Variant Concerns -The World Health Organization is recommending people 60 and older to postpone their travel plans over Omicron variant concerns. The WHO, which named Omicron as a variant of concern (VOC) on Nov. 26, says it is monitoring the spread of the variant, and advised certain travelers to delay their trips to “areas with community transmission.” “Persons who are unwell, or who have not been fully vaccinated or do not have proof of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and are at increased risk of developing severe disease and dying, including people 60 years of age or older or those with comorbidities that present increased risk of severe COVID-19 (e.g. heart disease, cancer and diabetes) should be advised to postpone travel to areas with community transmission,” the WHO said in a press release on Nov. 30. In its latest update, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that those aged 65 to 74 account for nearly 22 percent of all deaths by COVID-19 in the United States. The percentage continues to grow as their age increases, with 26 percent for those from 75 to 84, and 28 percent for 85 and older. The WHO said as of Nov. 28, over fifty countries have implemented their version of travel measures prohibiting the entry of travelers arriving from Southern African countries, including South Africa, which first reported the Omicron variant to it on Nov. 24. The organization added that the new variant is expected to be detected around the world as countries step up in their tracking efforts. It recommended countries to test passengers prior to travel and upon arrival for COVID-19 and quarantine international travelers, among several measures.
Kremlin Says Half Of Entire Ukrainian Army Is In Donbass As Blinken Warns Putin: US "Prepared To Act" -A Wednesday statement out of the Russian Foreign Ministry has charged Kiev with stoking tensions along the Ukrainian border. The statement alleged that over 100,000 Ukrainian troops and military hardware have been moved into the restive Donbass region, where the national forces have been in a stalemate with pro-Russian separatists for half a decade going back to 2014. While rejecting prior accusations out of Kiev and Washington - and especially Western media - that it's Russia that's stoking tensions by sending 90,000 regular forces near the border, Kremlin spokeswoman Maria Zakharova had this to say: "According to some reports, the number of troops… in the conflict zone already reaches 125,000 people, and this, if anyone does not know, is half of the entire composition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." Further she accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of breaking the peace, particularly the Donbass ceasefire terms of the Minsk agreement, after he submitted a bill to Ukrainian parliament which would allow foreign troops into the country to participate in joint military drills next year. The rival sides are now in a full-blown media and information war, trading tit-for-tat accusations of military build-up, in a dangerous situation that could be barreling toward renewal of actual armed conflict: "In recent weeks, we have seen a stream of consciousness from the Ukrainian leadership – especially when it comes to the military – that is excessively inflamed and dangerous," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in follow-up to Zakharova's words.
Herd immunity policy creates explosion of COVID-19 infections in German nurseries and schools - Public schools are to reopen Monday in Detroit after a weeklong break over the Thanksgiving holiday, despite the upsurge in COVID-19 cases which has killed an average of 500 people a week and put 4,000 people in the hospital on Thanksgiving Day. Detroit schools closed the entire week, rather than the usual three-day break, because of rising COVID-19 case levels in the city and state, but school Superintendent Nikolai Vitti said in-person instruction would begin as usual on Monday, November 29. While state health officials issued an appeal for all residents older than two to mask up during any indoor gatherings, this is not mandatory and will not be enforced in the school setting, where hundreds of thousands of children, few vaccinated and many unmasked, will gather in closed-door settings without adequate ventilation. The state government headed by Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer has abandoned any effort to fight the right-wing campaign against mask mandates and other executive orders which she issued in the course of 2020, after the Republican-led state Supreme Court overturned those orders. The Republican-controlled state legislature opposes any effort to require vaccination or mask wearing in schools, workplaces or other public venues. Over the past six months, state health officials have rescinded previous orders linked to fighting the spread of coronavirus and issued no new ones, while Whitmer’s top health aide, Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, resigned. The crisis in Michigan is so severe that it has attracted attention in the national media, with the Washington Post publishing a major report Saturday headlined, “‘Really Heartbreaking:’ Waves of Covid Patients Create No-Vacancy Status at Some Michigan Hospitals.” The report noted that eight hospitals in the state are 100 percent full and compelled to deny admission to new patients, with major hospital chains like Spectrum telling smaller rural hospitals that they cannot transfer high-risk patients who require treatment at a larger facility. The result was increased risk of death, not only to COVID-19 patients, but to those suffering heart attacks or injuries from car accidents, or to those needing treatment in a facility with greater resources.
As Omicron spreads in Europe, Paris commits to mass COVID-19 infections -- Speaking yesterday on the far-right CNews TV channel, French government spokesman Gabriel Attal confirmed that the highly-mutated and contagious Omicron variant of the coronavirus has likely arrived in France, but that the government will not take action in response. “We’re still at the monitoring stage,” Attal said. “We have several possible cases, 10 or so. For now, these are potential cases. … These cases will be genetically sequenced, and we will know in the coming hours if they are cases of the virus.” Nonetheless, Attal insisted that President Emmanuel Macron’s government would not take action to tighten health restrictions and slow or stop the spread of the virus “in the short or medium term.” Yesterday morning, Health Minister Olivier Véran said it was “a matter of hours” before Omicron cases are confirmed in France but dismissed its significance. “Currently, whether there are two or 10 infections by this variant in Europe or in France does not change the profile of the pandemic wave we are seeing,” Véran said. Complacently declaring that “a new variant does not necessarily mean a new wave,” he admitted that he could not say whether currently existing vaccines would give any protection from the Omicron variant, saying it is “too early” to tell. Like at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, governments in France and across Europe are responding to a deadly surge in the virus with politically criminal indifference and complacency. With nearly 2.7 million cases and 29,298 deaths of COVID-19 confirmed in Europe last week, a surge driven by the Delta variant is already devastating the continent. Seven-day averages of new cases are at all-time highs in Germany (57,598), the Netherlands (22,257) and Denmark (3,994) or surging towards them in Belgium (17,162) and Poland (22,964). As hospitals collapse in parts of Germany, Austria and the Netherlands, patients are already being sent across national borders to less affected parts of Germany and Italy for treatment. France is rapidly catching up to its worse hit northern neighbors. On November 27, 37,218 cases were COVID-19 cases were reported in France, and ICU occupancy for COVID-19 patients reached 1,617 with 9,271 people hospitalized for COVID-19, levels not seen since the peak of the fourth wave in mid-September. The seven-day average for infections is 27,597, and each day averaged 61 deaths last week in France, respective increases of 61 percent and 38 percent on the previous week.
Czech president appoints a new prime minister — from inside a transparent cube. - President Milos Zeman of the Czech Republic, who tested positive for the coronavirus on Thursday, appointed the country’s new prime minister on Sunday while sitting inside a transparent cube.Mr. Zeman, 77, was discharged from a hospital in Prague on Saturday and is currently required to isolate. He rolled in a wheelchair into the clear box, pushed by a worker wearing a full protective suit, in order to appoint Petr Fiala as prime minister. He was originally scheduled to take that step on Friday but the event was delayed after he tested positive. If it had happened two years ago, the sight of a world leader confined to a cube might have been considerable cause for alarm, but on Sunday the event proceeded as normal, with the other participants masked and moving freely around the room. Mr. Fiala and the other speakers stood at a microphone and spoke toward the cube, while Mr. Zeman spoke from inside using another microphone.
Partial lockdown in Slovakia and Czech Republic following record COVID-19 infections - After a partial lockdown had already been imposed in Austria, stricter measures and contact restrictions were also imposed in Slovakia and the Czech Republic last week. This is against a background of the rapid spread of coronavirus infections, with new highs almost every day, which was made possible by the criminal reopening policies of the governments. Slovakia recorded 14,402 new infections on Saturday. The previous record of 13,266 infections had been reported earlier in the middle of the week. In the country of just 5.4 million people, 1.13 million have now been officially infected and 14,177 have died as a result. Not even 43 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. The situation in the neighbouring Czech Republic is similarly dire. As of Friday, the number of new infections was 27,793, nearly double those at the peak of the last wave in March this year. With 2.09 million registered infections, about 20 percent of the population has now contracted the virus. That does not take into account the number of unreported infections. On Friday alone, 120 people died, bringing the total death toll to 32,642. Again, experts expect the death toll to continue to rise as the vaccination rate stands at a low 59 percent. On Thursday, a two-week partial shutdown went into effect in Slovakia, announced the day before by the right-wing government in Bratislava. Restaurants and stores selling nonessential goods are to remain closed during this period. At the same time, an emergency law will once again come into force that provides for restrictions on free movement. For example, people are only allowed to leave their own homes to go to work, visit the doctors or hospitals and go shopping. Taking walks is also allowed. Until recently, the government of Prime Minister Igor Matovic had opposed implementing any further protective measures and allowed the virus to spread freely. The governing parties OĽaNO, Za ludi and SaS, are all right-wing, pro-business parties. The fourth coalition member, Sme Rodina (We Are Family), led by businessman Boris Kollar, is also far to the right and maintains close ties to coronavirus deniers and right-wing extremists. Only after the country’s hospitals collapsed did the coalition decide to take this step. Hospitals are at full capacity, with 3,200 COVID-19 patients. Tomas Sulik, head of intensive care medicine at the hospital in Trencin, a town near the Czech border, sees the country on the brink of a humanitarian disaster, according to Tagesschau. In fact, triage, the selection of which patients do not receive life-saving treatment and which do, is already underway. “For now, we are only selecting patients who are severely poly-morbid and have no longer perspective of surviving on the ventilator. We are on the edge of triage,” Sulik told the newspaper. In addition, there is a severe shortage of staff. A result of frustration felt among physicians and nurses after recent waves, says Peter Vislolajsky, head of the physicians’ unions. “We are now short more than 1,300 nurses who have left the healthcare system. And hundreds of experienced physicians have also left. We have less capacity today than we did during the COVID surge last winter.”
Berlin primary school teacher describes new contract as “simply ridiculous!” - The new contract agreed by Germany’s federal states is a slap in the face for nurses, teachers and other public sector employees. It makes clear what politicians and union officials think of them. In the midst of the pandemic, they must not only risk their health and lives, but also pay for the “profits before lives” policy with their wages and conditions. “Schools have degenerated into centres of neglect,” says Lara*, a Berlin primary school teacher who is not in the union but is part of the Action Committees for Safe Education network. We spoke with her about the latest contract, which education union GEW and service union Verdi agreed on November 29. Lara teaches in Berlin-Neukölln. She speaks from the heart of many colleagues when she calls the latest wage settlement “simply ridiculous.” “That’s why I’m not a member of the GEW,” she says. “The GEW has not been involved in any way with measures such as school closures, alternate teaching, or anything that could have reduced the incidence of infection. Duty of care, educational mandate or preventive health care—they’re not interested in any of that.” Demonstration on November 6, 2021 for better schools in Berlin (image schulemussanders She continues, “During bargaining sessions, all the unions talk about is ‘better pay,’ which turns out to be a paltry 2.8 percent for two years. So that’s 1.4 percent more pay per year, with inflation now already exceeding 5 percent! And the wage increase won’t come for another year, either.” The coronavirus bonus that the GEW likes to highlight is also a disappointment, she said. “For entrants like me with a different career background and for the trainees—that is, in Berlin for 40 percent of all teachers—there is a bonus not of €1,300, but only €650. Yet we perform just as much and work under exactly the same dangers. We have been unscrupulously exploited under coronavirus conditions since the beginning of 2020—and then they agree such a contract!” Lara works at a hotspot school in Berlin-Neukölln. She describes the casual approach to danger that career changers like her face on a daily basis. “After all, we are not typical students, but we are all teachers, practising teaching at different schools, several of them in real hotspots. That means the mixing of cohorts is extreme. As a subject teacher, you’re in different classes, and each class has over 20 kids. With four classes a week, that’s 80 to 100 kids you’re in contact with. And then you go to study groups at least once a week, where you meet 30 colleagues from other schools. I can’t imagine a greater collection of infection opportunities.” The threat of a pandemic also lurks daily in classrooms. Testing is done at the school three times a week, but that is completely uncertain, she says. She explains, “There are more than 20 students in a class. With such large classes, it’s just difficult to keep an eye on every child, and it’s not very pleasant to stick the test probe deep up your nose. Some are just pretending, and there’s no guarantee that everyone will take the test properly.” Basically, it should be done quite differently, she continues. “The kids should have to test themselves before coming in. Many even come in without masks, because there’s often no check at the entrance due to a lack of staff.”
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