week ending May 14

Powell says Fed could have raised rates sooner - The Washington Post Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell acknowledged in an interview with Marketplace on Thursday that the central bank could have moved faster to raise interest rates and cut inflation, as the central bank comes under increasing scrutiny over whether it waited too long to act on prices. “If you had perfect hindsight you’d go back, and it probably would have been better for us to have raised rates a little sooner,” Powell said in an interview released Thursday with Marketplace’s Kai Ryssdal. “I’m not sure how much difference it would have made, but we have to make decisions in real time, based on what we know then, and we did the best we could.” Powell’s comments mark a sharper sentiment of regret than his past remarks when it comes to whether the Fed should have stepped in sooner. The Fed has faced criticism, primarily from Republicans and some prominent economists, such as Lawrence H. Summers, for delaying interest rate hikes and ending stimulus-era financial supports, which work together to cool off the economy and bring inflation down. Powell, who was confirmed by the Senate for a second term as Fed chair earlier Thursday, lost a handful of votes from lawmakers who said their constituents were suffering too much from high prices on his watch. For much of the last year, the Fed stuck to its message that rising inflation would be “transitory,” or temporary, and more limited to pockets of the economy hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic and related shutdowns and supply chain disruptions. As the months went by, inflation sank deeper into the economy, and people increasingly felt the strain in their daily lives, especially with food, energy and shelter. By the end of 2021, the Fed backed off from its “transitory” message and has since worked to reassure Americans that their pain is not going unnoticed. In an unusual step, Powell began a news conference last week by saying he wanted to “take this opportunity to speak directly to the American people.” “It’s our job to make sure that inflation of that unpleasant high nature doesn’t get entrenched in the economy,” he said at the news conference. “That’s what we’re here for … perhaps the most fundamental thing we’re here for.” Now, with inflation at 40-year highs, the Fed faces the tremendous task of slowing down the economy without cooling off the economy too much and causing a recession. The main tool for the Fed to slow down the economy is through interest rates, which work with blunt force. Higher rates make an array of loans costlier for households and businesses, and they can eventually slow consumer spending and business investment. But rates that go up too high and too fast can choke off the recovery and cause people to lose their jobs. The Fed has planned seven interest rate hikes this year that it hopes can slow the economy just the right amount. Last week, the Fed enacted the second of those increases, opting for a more aggressive hike of half a percentage point.

Rate hikes and Ukraine war pose risks to US financial system, says Fed report - The Federal Reserve warned of deteriorating liquidity conditions across key financial markets amid rising risks from the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening and high inflation in a semi-annual report published on Monday. “According to some measures, market liquidity has declined since late 2021 in the markets for recently issued US cash Treasury securities and for equity index futures,” the US central bank said in its Financial Stability Report. “While the recent deterioration in liquidity has not been as extreme as in some past episodes, the risk of a sudden significant deterioration appears higher than normal,” the report said. “In addition, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, liquidity has been somewhat strained at times in oil futures markets, while markets for some other affected commodities have been subject to notable dysfunction.” In a statement accompanying the release of the report, Fed governor Lael Brainard said the war “has sparked large price movements and margin calls in commodities market and highlighted a potential channel through which large financial institutions could be exposed to contagion.” “From a financial stability perspective, since most participants access commodities futures markets through a large bank or broker-dealer that is a member of the relevant clearing house, these clearing members are exposed to risk when clients face unusually elevated margin calls,” Brainard said. “The Federal Reserve is working with domestic and international regulators to better understand the exposures of commodity market participants and their linkages with the core financial system.” “Elevated inflation and rising rates in the US could negatively affect domestic economic activity, asset prices, credit quality, and financial conditions more generally,” the report said. It also called out US house prices, which it said “could be particularly sensitive to shocks” given high valuations. The Fed last week authorised a half-percentage point increase in its benchmark interest rate, marking the largest single hike since 2000, and its chair, Jerome Powell told reporters afterward it was on track to follow up the move with additional half-point increases at each of its next two policy meetings in June and July. In the report, the Fed also reiterated concerns over financial risks posed by stablecoins, a fast-growing type of cryptocurrency that’s designed to maintain a steady value in relation to a hard currency such as the US dollar. The coins are “vulnerable to runs” and there’s a lack of transparency around the assets that are used to back the tokens, it said. “Additionally, the increasing use of stablecoins to meet margin requirements for levered trading in other cryptocurrencies may amplify volatility in demand for stablecoins and heighten redemption risks,” the report said.

Powell says he can't guarantee a 'soft landing' as the Fed looks to control inflation - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned Thursday that getting inflation under control could cause some economic pain but remains his top priority. Powell said he couldn't promise a so-called soft landing for the economy as the Fed raises interest rates to tamp down price increases running near their fastest pace in more than 40 years. "So a soft landing is, is really just getting back to 2% inflation while keeping the labor market strong. And it's quite challenging to accomplish that right now, for a couple of reasons," the central bank chief said in an interview with Marketplace. He noted that with a tight labor market pushing up wages, avoiding a recession that often follows aggressive policy tightening will be a challenge. "So it will be challenging, it won't be easy. No one here thinks that it will be easy," he said. "Nonetheless, we think there are pathways ... for us to get there." The remarks were published the same day the Senate overwhelmingly confirmed Powell for a second term, a move that came nearly seven months after President Joe Biden first submitted the nomination. On top of the list for his second-term priorities will be to control price inflation that in April ran at an 8.3% annual rate, just off a more than 40-year high posted in March. The Fed last week approved a half percentage point interest rate increase that followed a quarter-point hike in March. Markets expect the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee to hike another half-point in June and to keep increasing benchmark rates through the end of the year. For his part, Powell said he understands the added pain that higher rates may cause, but said the Fed needs to act aggressively. "Our goal, of course, is to get inflation back down to 2% without having the economy go into recession, or, to put it this way, with the labor market remaining fairly strong," he said. "That's what we're trying to achieve. I think the one thing we really cannot do is to fail to restore price stability, though. Nothing in the economy works, the economy doesn't work for anybody without price stability." Powell has come under some criticism for the Fed's delay in raising rates and halting its bond-buying program even as inflation mounted. Moreover, at his post-meeting news conference last week, he made remarks that were interpreted as taking more aggressive steps, like a 75 basis point increase, off the table.

Fed: Russian-Ukraine war poses biggest threat to financial stability — The Federal Reserve is tracking the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as the biggest threat to the U.S. financial system in 2022. When Russia invaded its sovereign neighbor in February, it shocked commodity markets and put stress on the banks and broker-dealers that facilitate such investments by extending lines of credit, the Fed noted in its latest financial stability report, released Monday afternoon. Brainard: Fed working with other regulators, both foreign and domestic, to address commodity threat from Ukraine invasion. “Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine has sparked large price movements and margin calls in commodities markets and highlighted a potential channel through which large financial institutions could be exposed to contagion,” Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said in a statement.

Powell cruises to second term as Fed chair — Jerome Powell was confirmed to his second four-year term as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by a vote of 80-19 in the Senate on Thursday.Powell is the third Federal Reserve nominee to emerge from the confirmation process this week. Philip Jefferson, a former Fed economist and administrator at Davidson College, soared through by a vote of 91-7 on Wednesday night, while Lisa Cook was confirmed on a party-line vote of 51-50 on Tuesday night.Four of President Biden’s five Fed nominees for the seven-member board now have Senate approval after an arduous and protracted confirmation process. The White House rolled out its slate of nominees in December and January, only to see their progress stalled in the Senate Banking Committee amid concerns over past statements by Sarah Bloom Raskin, the administration’s initial pick for the Fed’s vice chair for supervision.

Cook confirmed as first Black woman to serve on Fed board ---— Lisa D. Cook became the first Black woman to receive Senate confirmation for a seat on the Federal Reserve Board Tuesday night, capping an arduous nomination process beset by Republican accusations that she was not qualified to serve. Cook, who taught economics at Michigan State University before being tapped by the Biden administration for the Federal Reserve, secured confirmation despite uniform opposition from Senate Republicans. A tiebreaking vote was cast by Vice President Kamala Harris, making the vote 51-50 in favor of her candidacy. Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, applauded the vote as “historic.”

U.S. yields ease after hitting 3-1/2 year highs on rate hike jitters (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields eased on Monday after the benchmark 10-year note hit fresh 3-1/2 year highs as inflation fears continued to roil markets and traders awaited consumer price data and the auction of $103 billion in new government debt later this week. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 4.1 basis points to 3.083%, after hitting 3.203%, a level last seen in November 2018. The equities rout will keep slamming bond sentiment until investors stop taking their cue from rising yields and turn to corporate earnings as their guide, The pause in the bond market sell-off was driven by short-covering and some bargain hunting, Investors buy back borrowed securities to cover their short positions, which often sparks volatility. Sharply rising yields knock prices lower as yields move inversely to price. The long end of the yield curve has been steepening, pushing the gap between two- and 30-year notes up from a low of 38.76 on Friday to a high of 61.87 on Monday, Refinitiv data showed. "People are taking advantage of moving out the curve," Yields on Treasury debt have roughly doubled since early March when the Federal Reserve took a hawkish stance and began hiking interest rates for the first time since late 2018 to curb soaring inflation. The Fed can stick to half-point rate hikes for the next two to three meetings, then assess how the economy and inflation are responding before deciding whether further rises are needed, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said. "I don't think we need to be moving even more aggressively," Bostic told Bloomberg on Monday. The U.S. consumer price index is expected to show on Wednesday that core CPI last month slowed to 6.0% and headline CPI to 8.1% from 6.5% and 8.5%, respectively, in March, according to economists polled by Refinitiv. The Treasury will auction $45 billion of three-year notes on Tuesday, $36 billion of 10-year notes on Wednesday and $22 billion of 30-year notes on Thursday. The spike in longer-dated bond yields has outpaced the short end of the curve, pushing the spread differential between two- and 10-year debt to its widest in nearly three months.

U.S. dollar touches 20-year high as markets shun risk (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar reached a new 20-year high on Monday as risk-off sentiment stemming in part from concerns over the Federal Reserve's ability to combat high inflation boosted the greenback's safe-haven appeal. The dollar has risen for five straight weeks as U.S. Treasury yields have climbed on expectations the Fed will be aggressive in attempting to tamp down inflation. On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the U.S. central bank may not get as much aid from easing supply chains as it is hoping for in helping to cool inflation. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he already sees signs of peaking supply pressures and that should give the Fed room to hike at half-percentage-point interest rate increments for the next two to three policy meetings, but nothing bigger. Also contributing to the defensive tone was the ongoing war in Ukraine and concerns about rising COVID-19 cases in China. The dollar index =USD fell 0.135% at 103.630 after touching 104.19, its highest level since December 2002, with the euro EUR= up 0.15% to $1.0567. The Fed last week raised rates by 50 basis points as it attempts to lower inflation without tilting the economy into a recession, while a solid jobs report on Friday cemented expectations for more rate hikes. Investors will get a look at more inflation readings later this week in the form of the consumer price and producer price indexes. Yields on most U.S. Treasury notes pared early gains to trade lower on Monday as bargain-hunters stepped in after the benchmark 10-year yield hit fresh 3-1/2-year highs of 3.203% as inflation fears continued to roil markets. On Wall Street, stocks were trading sharply lower as growth stocks were again weighed down by climbing Treasury yields, although major averages were off their worst levels of the day after hitting fresh lows for the year. Markets are completely pricing in a rate hike of at least 50 basis points by the Fed at its June meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool Link The Japanese yen JPY= strengthened 0.24% versus the greenback at 130.28 per dollar, while Sterling GBP= was last trading at $1.2343, up 0.05% on the day.

Treasury's Yellen says U.S. financial system operating in 'orderly manner' (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday the U.S. financial system was functioning in an "orderly manner" despite the current stock market sell-off, and valuations of some assets remain high compared to historical values. In prepared testimony for a U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on Tuesday, Yellen said the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will continue to monitor developments related to the war in Ukraine and continued struggles against the coronavirus pandemic. "There is the potential for continued volatility and unevenness of global growth as countries continue to grapple with the pandemic," Yellen said. "Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has further increased economic uncertainty." U.S. stocks were down sharply again on Monday as the broad S&P 500 index .SPX extended its longest losing streak since mid-2011 and touched a one-year low as higher Treasury yields stoked market fears of aggressive monetary policy tightening. Yellen said the FSOC's annual report to Congress - the subject of Tuesday's hearing - discusses other potential emerging financial threats and vulnerabilities that the multi-regulator council continues to monitor. These include short-term wholesale funding markets, central counterparties, alternative reference rates, cyber security, corporate credit markets and real estate markets. Yellen said the FSOC report discusses vulnerabilities in the non-bank financial sector and the steps the FSOC has taken to examine these risks, including re-establishing an interagency Hedge Fund Working Group. "The market turmoil in March 2020 demonstrated that the liquidity mismatch and the use of leverage by some nonbank financial institutions can make them vulnerable to acute financial stresses, and these stresses can be transmitted and amplified to the broader financial system," she said. Yellen also said the report highlights FSOC's work in assessing climate-related financial risks and ensuring that financial institutions better understand them. The council has recommended that regulators build their capacity and expand their efforts to address climate risks, improve the availability of data and create enhanced and standardized disclosure rules. The council is also drafting a report to identify financial stability and regulatory gaps related to digital assets, new products and financial technologies related to President Joe Biden's March 9 executive order calling for a comprehensive approach to digital asset policies, Yellen said.

Inflation Threat "Starts With The Fed" - President Biden Comments On Hotter Than Expected CPI - Having deflected any blame for the soaring costs of living in America, President Biden has issued a statement this morning on the hotter than expected consumer price inflation in April:While it is heartening to see that annual inflation moderated in April, the fact remains that inflation is unacceptably high. As I said yesterday, inflation is a challenge for families across the country and bringing it down is my top economic priority. This starts with the Federal Reserve, which plays a primary role in fighting inflation in our country. I thank the Senate for confirming Dr. Lisa Cook to the Board of Governors last night, and urge the Senate to confirm my remaining nominees without delay. While I will never interfere with the Fed’s independence, I believe we have built a strong economy and a strong labor market, and I agree with what Chairman Powell said last week that the number one threat to that strength – is inflation. I am confident the Fed will do its job with that in mind. Beyond the Fed, my inflation plan is focused on lowering the costs that families face and lowering the federal deficit. Already this week, my Administration has announced new steps in partnership with the private sector to lower the price of high speed internet for tens of millions of Americans. And, the Congressional Budget Office reported that the federal budget deficit in the first seven months of this fiscal year fell by $1.5 trillion—putting us on track for the most deficit reduction in any year on record. The CBO also confirmed that the budget deficit so far this year is lower than it was during the same period in 2019, before the pandemic began. Today, I am traveling to Illinois to speak with farmers about more we can do to lower their costs and help them produce more, lowering the price of food for Americans and around the world. All of this is progress, but the fight against global supply chain issues related to the pandemic and Putin’s price hike will continue every day. Congressional Republicans talk about inflation, but their only plan is to raise taxes on working families, taking even more money out of their pockets. If they are serious about inflation, they should send me the bipartisan innovation bill to bolster our supply chains and make more in America, along with legislation that cuts costs and the cuts the deficit, reducing families’ prescription drug and utility bills and restoring fairness to our tax code. We’ve made enormous progress in getting our economy back on track, and these measures would help us sustain this progress and bring prices down for families. So it's The Fed's problem, Republicans are worse, and Democrats' inflation plan is brilliant?

Bill Gates sees a 'strong argument' for a global economic slowdown -Add the global economy to Bill Gates' growing list of concerns these days.On Sunday, the billionaire Microsoft co-founder told CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" that he believes factors like Russia's war in Ukraine and the pandemic's economic fallout create a "strong argument" that the world will see an economic slowdown in the near future."It comes on top of the pandemic where government debt levels were already very, very high, and there were already supply chain problems," Gates said. "It's likely to accelerate the inflationary problems that rich world economies have, and force an increase in interest rates that eventually will result in an economic slowdown."Gates added that countries' efforts to tamp down rising inflation by hiking interest rates is another related factor that "eventually will result in an economic slowdown." His comments echoed global leaders like U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said in April that Russia's attacks on Ukraine will have "enormous economic repercussions for the world."Regulators in multiple countries – like the U.K., India and U.S. – have recently increased their interest rates to combat record levels of inflation, partially stemming from the pandemic's effects. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve hiked rates by half a percentage point, the largest increase in two decades.According to the May CNBC Fed Survey, which polled a panel of 30 economists, fund managers and strategists, many experts believe those aggressive rate hikes could end up sparking a recession over the next year. Gates seems to agree, though his warning of a slowdown falls short of a full-on recession prediction."I'm afraid the bears on this one have a pretty strong argument that concerns me a lot," Gates said.Some forecasters are currently arguing a recession is unlikely, at least in the near-term. Much of Wall Street is still betting against a recession,with Goldman Sachs putting the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at just 15%, though that number jumps to 35% over the next two years. But you don't need to be as wealthy as Gates – who boasts a net worth of $120 billion, according to Bloomberg – to be concerned. The stock markets' recent violent swings, along with the U.S. gross domestic product's surprising decline at a 1.4% pace in this year's first quarter, have plenty of people on edge about the economy's long-term health.In April, a survey by CNBC and Acorns found that 81% of Americans are worried that a recession will hit the U.S. in 2022. Eight in 10 small businesses surveyed by CNBC in May have the same concern.

Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. Note: Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of May 8th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is down 11.7% from the same day in 2019 88.3% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel has been moving sideways over the last two months, off about 10% from 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through May 5th. Movie ticket sales were at $87 million last week, down about 70% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. This data is through April 30th. The occupancy rate was down 3.4% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will now mostly move sideways seasonally until the summer. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage.. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough. Manhattan is at about 39% of normal. This data is through Friday, May 6th.

Treasury Implements Bottom of the Barrel New Russia Sanctions on Sunday May 8; How Broad a Nexus for Russia Retaliatory Sanctions Later This Week? -- by Yves Smith --Your humble blogger will offer a few additional observations about the Russian Presidential decree that announced “retaliatory special economic measures” on May 3, based now on having a translation of the document proper, as opposed to a press release. We’ve embedded a translation of the executive order at the end of the post; you can find the original text here. As we’ll discuss, while the executive order authorizes a broad range of actions, including cancellation of existing contracts, in response to the seizure of property and/or restriction of property rights, it remains to be seen how Russia connects the parties hit with retaliatory measures to the predicate offense. [...] Now to what is likely to be an important event late this week, which will be Russia’s announcement of its initial list of targets under its “retaliatory special economic measures” plus additional clarification of the May 3 decree, which has the potential to increase its scope. Even though I am warned that legal language in Russian can be difficult to parse even for Russians, the executive order seems reasonably straightforward. It is also broad in most respects, but might be a smidge narrow in another. First, as the very description stresses, these measures are designed as retaliatory: In connection with the unfriendly and contrary to international law actions of the United States of America and the foreign states and international organizations that have joined them, aimed at illegally depriving the Russian Federation, citizens of the Russian Federation and Russian legal entities of the right to property and (or) limiting their property rights…. Notice that the decree depicts the US as the lead actor and focuses on harm to economic interests. The decree goes to the trouble of making clear that these measures are defensive in nature (to protect Russia). That is presumably because Russia and China take the position that US sanctions are illegal because they are not approved by the UN. So it’s surprising to see it define the targets of these measures later as “persons under sanctions”. And yes, I confirmed that the Russian word is the same as used in connection with US sanctions. So perhaps this is a recognition that the West will call them sanctions regardless, and the parties that appreciate the difference will recognize it? Notice that the sanctions are sweeping in terms of the scope of action: sanctioned parties are subject to having open contracts cancelled and being denied new ones. They can also have Russia product sales, including of raw materials, shut down. But what is not yet clear, and we’ll presumably see soon enough, is what entities will be subject to sanctions. As I read the order now, it extends to a party that stole from Russia and anyone that does business with them can also be sanctioned. By that logic, it can pick up any US company that gets Federal funding.

In shift, Democrats de-link Ukraine aid from COVID-19 money - Democrats are moving to quickly pass nearly $40 billion in new Ukraine aid, which will not be linked to a stalled coronavirus package. Democrats are proposing nearly $40 billion in new assistance, above the roughly $33 billion requested by the Biden administration. The extra funding from Congress would include an additional $3.4 billion for both military and humanitarian assistance in addition to the money requested by the White House, two sources confirmed to The Hill. The proposal could be on the House floor as soon as Tuesday, one source told The Hill. Whether it could also pass the Senate by the end of the week depends on if all 100 senators could work out a time agreement and when the House sends over the legislation. The Ukraine aid will not be attached to a $10 billion coronavirus assistance package, a source confirmed. That package has been stuck for weeks in the Senate because Republicans are demanding an amendment vote to prevent the administration from lifting a Trump-era border health policy. Democrats had eyed linking the two and the idea had support from both Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the White House. But Republicans had vowed to block the Ukraine package if the COVID-19 funds were attached. “[Biden] has communicated to congressional leadership that he wants pass Ukraine aid first without Covid $ given opposition by senate GOP,” a congressional source said in an email. The source added that the coronavirus aid would then be a separate bill and “both would originate in the House.” In a statement later on Monday, President Biden said he would accept moving the two measures separately. Biden said that while he urged Congress to act on funding for COVID-19 treatments, the need for aid to Ukraine was too great to put off any further.

Biden sets aside COVID-19 funding to secure tens of billions to escalate war against Russia - President Joe Biden on Monday called on Congress to split off additional funding for COVID-19 vaccines, tests and therapeutic drugs from a bill to authorize tens of billions more in military aid to Ukraine in the US-NATO war against Russia. Originally, he and Democratic lawmakers had urged that Congress attach some $10 billion in US COVID-19 funding to a $33 billion package of military and economic aid to the Ukrainian regime, including a massive increase in large-scale weaponry and ammunition totaling $20 billion. But when Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, said they would not pass the package to escalate the conflict with Russia if it was linked to money, however inadequate, to deal with a new surge in COVID-19 infections and deaths, Biden made clear the priorities of the Democratic Party and the capitalist ruling class. Medical staff members attend to a COVID-19 patient in the ICU department of the Hospital Universitario, in Pamplona, northern Spain, Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022. (AP Photo/Alvaro Barrientos) Washington’s proxy war against Russia—an imperialist war for regime change and the dismemberment of Russia, in preparation for military conflict with China—takes precedence over and is to be paid for by the deaths of hundreds of thousands more workers in the US from the increasingly virulent and infectious virus. The utter indifference of both capitalist parties to mass death and debilitating illness within the borders of the US exposes the fraudulent claims of a war for “democracy” and “human rights” in Ukraine. The nationalist, capitalist regime of Putin, the authoritarian product of the Stalinist dissolution of the Soviet Union, was goaded into its reactionary and ill-fated invasion of Ukraine by the United States, which had spearheaded the eastward expansion of NATO and armed its puppet government in Kiev to the teeth in preparation for the current war. In his White House statement, Biden noted the broad bipartisan support for his plan to massively expand US arms to Ukraine and urged Congress to pass it quickly. “Previously, I had recommended that Congress take overdue action on much needed funding for COVID treatments, vaccines and tests, as part of the Ukraine Supplemental bill,” he said. “However, I have been informed by congressional leaders in both parties that such an addition would slow down action on the urgently needed Ukrainian aid—a view expressed strongly by several congressional Republicans. We cannot afford delay in this vital war effort. Hence, I am prepared to accept that these two measures move separately, so that the Ukrainian aid bill can get to my desk right away.” In the next breath, he hypocritically called separate passage of pandemic funding “equally vital,” stating that “Without timely COVID funding, more Americans will die needlessly.” Failure to pass additional COVID-19 funding, he added, would make it impossible to “order new COVID treatments and vaccines for the fall, including next-generation vaccines under development” and undermine “our supply of COVID tests.”

Congress set to approve an additional $40 billion in aid to Ukraine - Congress is poised to approve nearly $40 billion in additional military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine, outstripping President Biden’s $33 billion request and extending a fresh lifeline to Kyiv as Moscow plows ahead with plans to annex vast swaths of the country’s south and east.The House approved the proposal late Tuesday on a 368-to-57 vote, with the Senate likely to follow suit as early as this week. Passage of the measure would bring the total amount of Ukrainian aid provided by Congress since the Feb. 24 invasion to more than $53 billion.The bill includes almost $15 billion earmarked for military equipment, training, intelligence support and Ukrainian defense force salaries. A further $14 billion would be allocated for nonmilitary support, including humanitarian aid, and another $5 billion would address global food security issues.The House on May 10 approved a $39.8 billion military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine in a bipartisan vote of 368-to-57. (Video: The Washington Post)In remarks on the House floor Tuesday night, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) repeatedly denounced Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “coward,” described the aid package as “an act of mercy” and cast the war in Ukraine as one on which the future of global democracy hinges.“We should all be very proud that we had the opportunity when Putin decided — whatever it is he decided — to be brutal and cruel and a coward, that we were there to help,” Pelosi said. “It’s about democracy versus a dictatorship. Democracy must prevail. The Ukrainian people are fighting the fight for their democracy and, in doing so, for ours as well.”Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged lawmakers to pass the measure in an open letter ahead of the debate.“The ability to draw upon existing [Defense Department] stocks has been a critical tool in our efforts to support the Ukrainians in their fight against Russian aggression,” the letter reads. “In short, we need your help.”Aid for Ukraine has so far drawn bipartisan support, including a House vote of 417 to 10 to pass a lend-lease bill expediting weapons shipments to Ukraine — a measure that Biden signed into law on Monday.

Greenwald: Biden Wanted $33B More For Ukraine. Congress Quickly Hiked To $40B. Who Benefits? - From the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the Biden White House has repeatedly announced large and seemingly random amounts of money that it intends to send to fuel the war in Ukraine. The latest such dispatch, pursuant to an initial $3.5 billion fund authorized by Congress early on, was announced on Friday; “Biden says U.S. will send $1.3 billion in additional military and economic support to Ukraine,” read the CNBC headline. This was preceded by a series of new lavish spending packages for the war, unveiled every two to three weeks, starting on the third day of the war:

• Feb. 26: “Biden approves $350 million in military aid for Ukraine": Reuters;
• Mar. 16: “Biden announces $800 million in military aid for Ukraine”: The New York Times;
• Mar. 30: “Ukraine to receive additional $500 million in aid from U.S., Biden announces”: NBC News;
• Apr. 12: “U.S. to announce $750 million more in weapons for Ukraine, officials say": Reuters;
• May 6: “Biden announces new $150 million weapons package for Ukraine”: Reuters.

Those amounts by themselves are in excess of $3 billion; by the end of April, the total U.S. expenditure on the war in Ukraine was close to $14 billion, drawn from the additional $13.5 billion Congress authorized in mid-March. While some of that is earmarked for economic and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, most of it will go into the coffers of the weapons industry — including Raytheon, on whose Board of Directors the current Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, sat immediately before being chosen by Biden to run the Pentagon. As CNN put it: “about $6.5 billion, roughly half of the aid package, will go to the US Department of Defense so it can deploy troops to the region and send defense equipment to Ukraine.”As enormous as those sums already are, they were dwarfed by the Biden administration's announcement on April 28 that it “is asking Congress for $33 billion in funding to respond to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, more than double the $14 billion in support authorized so far.” The White House itself acknowledges that the vast majority of that new spending package will go to the purchase of weaponry and other military assets: “$20.4 billion in additional security and military assistance for Ukraine and for U.S. efforts to strengthen European security in cooperation with our NATO allies and other partners in the region.”It is difficult to put into context how enormous these expenditures are — particularly since the war is only ten weeks old, and U.S. officials predict/hope that this war will last not months but years. That ensures that the ultimate amounts will be significantly higher still.The amounts allocated thus far — the new Biden request of $33 billion combined with the $14 billion already spent — already exceed the average annual amount the U.S. spent for its own war in Afghanistan ($46 billion). In the twenty-year U.S. war in Afghanistan which ended just eight months ago, there was at least some pretense of a self-defense rationale given the claim that the Taliban had harbored Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda at the time of the 9/11 attack. Now the U.S. will spend more than that annual average after just ten weeks of a war in Ukraine that nobody claims has any remote connection to American self-defense. Even more amazingly, the total amount spent by the U.S. on the Russia/Ukraine war in less than three months is close to Russia's total military budget for the entire year ($65.9 billion). While Washington depicts Russia as some sort of grave and existential menace to the U.S., the reality is that the U.S. spends more than ten times on its military what Russia spends on its military each year; indeed, the U.S. spends three times more than the second-highest military spender, China, and more than the next twelve countries combined. But as gargantuan as Biden's already-spent and newly requested sums are — for a ten-week war in which the U.S. claims not to be a belligerent — it was apparently woefully inadequate in the eyes of the bipartisan establishment in Congress, who is ostensibly elected to serve the needs and interests of American citizens, not Ukrainians. Leaders of both parties instantly decreed that Biden's $33 billion request was not enough. They thusraised it to $40 billion — a more than 20% increase over the White House's request — and are now working together to create an accelerated procedure to ensure immediate passage and disbursement of these weapons and funds to the war zone in Ukraine. "Time is of the essence – and we cannot afford to wait,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a letter to House members, adding: "This package, which builds on the robust support already secured by Congress, will be pivotal in helping Ukraine defend not only its nation but democracy for the world." (See update below).

Rand Paul stalls quick Senate OK of $40B Ukraine package [Video]— Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul defied leaders of both parties Thursday and single-handedly delayed until next week Senate approval of an additional $40 billion to help Ukraine and its allies withstand Russia's three-month old invasion. With the Senate poised to debate and vote on the package of military and economic aid, Paul denied leaders the unanimous agreement they needed to proceed. The bipartisan measure, backed by President Joe Biden, underscores U.S. determination to reinforce its support for Ukraine’s outnumbered forces. The legislation has been approved overwhelmingly by the House and has strong bipartisan support in the Senate. Final passage is not in doubt. Even so, Paul’s objection was an audacious departure from an overwhelming sentiment in Congress that quickly helping Ukraine was urgent, both for that nation’s prospects of withstanding Vladimir Putin’s brutal attack and for discouraging the Russian president from escalating or widening the war. It was also a brazen rebellion against his fellow Kentucky Republican, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell began Thursday’s session by saying senators from “both sides” — meaning Republicans and Democrats — needed to “help us pass this urgent funding bill today,” gesturing emphatically as he said “today.” Paul, a libertarian who often opposes U.S. intervention abroad, said he wanted language inserted into the bill, without a vote, that would have an inspector general scrutinize the new spending. He has a long history of demanding last-minute changes by holding up or threatening to delay bills on the brink of passage, including measures dealing with lynching, sanctioning Russia,preventing a federal shutdown,the defense budget, government surveillance and providing health care to the Sept. 11 attack first responders. Democrats and McConnell opposed Paul's push and offered to have a vote on his language. Paul was likely to lose that vote and rejected the offer.

 Leaks raise concern Ukraine will spill into US-Russia proxy war - President Biden’s commitment to support Ukraine in its defensive war against Russia is suddenly colliding with his push to avoid a direct confrontation with Moscow. The president’s reported dressing down of top military and intelligence officials for leaks that boasted of how U.S. intelligence helped Ukraine kill top Russian generals and sink a battleship underscores the tensions — and the fraying of the administration’s messaging. “The president was displeased with the leaks. His view was that it was an overstatement of our role, an inaccurate statement and also an understatement of the Ukrainians’ role and their relationship, and he did not feel that they were constructive,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Monday. Psaki did not confirm the details of Biden’s remarks. Thomas Friedman in a column in The New York Times reported that the president had called the director of national intelligence, the director of the CIA and the secretary of Defense to warn them that such “loose talk” had to stop immediately “before we end up in an unintended war with Russia.” The administration has long taken steps to cast U.S. support for Ukraine as separate from a direct conflict with Moscow — even when the president himself has stepped out of line. Biden has often stepped outside the boundaries of his official talking points — calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a war criminal who must surrender power. But his staff were quick to walk back those comments. Hawkish supporters of Ukraine who have criticized the U.S. for holding back from delivering decisive, lethal military assistance have aided the narrative that the U.S. is taking steps to stop short of direct conflict with Moscow. But that stance is viewed as increasingly untenable as the administration has doubled-down on its support by sending larger and longer-range weaponry and requesting Congress authorize $33 billion in additional assistance to Ukraine. Administration officials have shifted their rhetoric to more full-throated support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s stated goals, that Russia must be pushed back to its positions before the Feb. 24 invasion. “The end state should be determined by the Ukrainians, as a sovereign independent country, we’ll back that, we’ll continue to back that however they choose to do it,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last month after meeting face-to-face with Zelensky in Kyiv. The secretary also sought to clarify remarks from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the time that the U.S. objective was to see “Russia weakened,” a statement that drew scrutiny as escalating rhetoric against Moscow. Blinken said it is important that the U.S. strategy is “making sure, in various ways, that Russia does not have the effective means” to invade Ukraine again. Foreign policy experts said the U.S. is taking a risk by showing less caution of becoming embroiled in a drawn-out conflict with a nuclear-armed Moscow. They also said the U.S. may be flexing given perceptions about Moscow’s own weaknesses. “I think there is far greater risk tolerance for Russian escalation, and I think it comes back to the fact that the Russians have underperformed, and that has given us added confidence about how far we can push,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Parsi said it is a positive signal that the president has reportedly pulled back his officials from speaking too freely about how the U.S. has helped weaken Russia’s assault, but he called for more clarity on the scope of the administration’s strategy.

Commerce Department suspending tariffs on Ukrainian steel The Department of Commerce announced Monday that it will temporarily suspend tariffs on Ukrainian steel. The 232 tariffs in place on the country’s steel will be suspended for a period of one year, according to the Commerce Department’s announcement. The department said the suspension would help Ukraine’s war effort against the ongoing Russian invaston. “Some of Ukraine’s largest steel communities have been among those hardest hit by Putin’s barbarism, and the steel mill in Mariupol has become a lasting symbol of Ukraine’s determination to resist Russia’s aggression. Many of Ukraine’s steel mills have continued to pay, feed, and even shelter their employees over the course of fighting. Despite nearby fighting, some Ukrainian mills have even started producing again,” the statement read. The department noted that one in 13 Ukrainians are employed by the steel industry. “We can’t just admire the fortitude and spirit of the Ukrainian people—we need to have their backs and support one of the most important industries to Ukraine’s economic well-being,” Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said in the statement.

Senators Blast US Trade Chief on Failure to Consult Congress - A bipartisan group of the top senators on the committee that deals with trade blasted President Joe Biden’s chief negotiator for failure to adequately consult with lawmakers regarding the administration’s positions. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai’s recent consultations with Congress haven’t met the standard of transparency principles announced last year, senators including Ron Wyden and Mike Crapo, the leading Democrat and Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, wrote in a letter on May 10. In particular, they faulted the USTR for failing to consult on progress in World Trade Organization talks related to the waiver of intellectual-property rights for COVID-19 vaccines. In that case, the trade agency publicly announced a “compromise outcome” with the European Union, India and South Africa before consulting with members of Congress and their staffs, the lawmakers said. “We want to ensure that this failure to consult properly with Congress will not be replicated in other areas,” the lawmakers said. They cited concerns about being properly consulted in negotiations for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, or IPEF, that the Biden administration plans to launch with countries including Japan, Singapore and New Zealand. “It is essential for USTR to improve consultation with Congress and stakeholders,” they wrote. The criticism comes after senators weeks ago at a hearing faulted Biden’s trade agenda for a lack of ambition for negotiating new agreements and countering China in Asia. In response to the letter, Greta Peisch, USTR’s general counsel and chief transparency officer, said in a statement that the agency takes its “commitment to transparency and consultation with members of Congress extremely seriously.” “We have routinely consulted Congress and sought input from stakeholders as the administration works to facilitate an outcome on intellectual property at the WTO,” Peisch said. “Those efforts have increased since the director general released text last week and they will continue before an agreement is reached on this, or any other issue,” she said, referring to WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Separately, the head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the largest American business lobbying group, issued a scathing criticism of Biden’s trade policy, saying that the administration is “consumed by caution and internal reviews.” The administration “has yet to pick up even the lowest-hanging fruit,” such as talks for free trade deals with the UK and Kenya started under President Donald Trump but stalled under Biden, chamber President Suzanne Clark said. The U.S. also should provide relief from tariffs on imports inherited from Trump that are serving as a tax on Americans, Clark said. IPEF remains “a far cry” as a replacement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership abandoned by Trump, Clark said. The current White House has made clear that it has no plans to join a successor deal. U.S. officials are set to discuss the IPEF when Biden visits the region this month; they’ve also said this won’t include negotiating tariff reductions. “America in many ways is standing still on new trade agreements,” Clark said at a virtual conference hosted by the chamber. “And if you’re standing still on trade, you’re falling behind.”

Biden Weighs Tariff Cuts to Fight High Inflation - President Joe Biden said he and his advisers are weighing whether to cut U.S. tariffs on foreign imports to try to fight inflation. “We’re discussing that right now,” he told reporters May 10 after a speech on rising prices at the White House. “We’re looking at what would have the most positive impact.” The president added that no decision has yet been made on how to proceed. Biden has maintained most of the tariffs imposed by his predecessor, Donald Trump, including duties on more than $300 billion in Chinese imports. But the president has come under pressure from some economists and lawmakers and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to reduce or eliminate the tariffs with inflation running at the hottest pace in four decades. Last week, the Biden administration notified about 600 representatives of U.S. industries that have benefited from the China tariffs that they will begin to expire in July, inviting the businesses to request the government keep the duties in place. Any request for continuation would trigger a review of the tariff by the U.S. Trade Representative, during which the duty remains in effect. The Biden administration in March announced plans to reinstate exemptions from the Trump era on about two-thirds of Chinese products that were previously granted waivers from tariffs, most of which expired by the end of 2020.

OPEC Antitrust Effort Revived by USA Senate - Oil prices at historic highs are bolstering a decades-long effort to subject OPEC to U.S. antitrust laws. A key Senate committee is expected to approve legislation allowing the U.S. to sue the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for manipulating energy markets. The vote by the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday would pave the way for full Senate consideration. While the so-called Nopec bill has been introduced many times over the past two decades -- never to any avail -- it now comes as record pump prices stoke already historic inflation. “Its prospects for passage look better than they have in 15 years,” said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners. Whether such a measure could actually rein in runaway prices is another matter. The oil market has been upended since the bill last gained traction in 2019, reshaped by a global pandemic that briefly destroyed demand and supply war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that flooded the market with crude and helped send oil futures below zero for the first time ever. Now, the world is short on oil, with Russia frozen out of international trade and OPEC and its allies contending with capacity constraints that limit their ability to raise output. The U.S., as the world’s No. 1 oil producer, has the most power to tame prices by raising production, but companies enjoying historic profits are reluctant to accelerate growth. It’s unclear when, or if, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will bring the measure, authored by Iowa’s conservative Republican Chuck Grassley, to the floor. “Obviously OPEC is a problem,” Schumer said last week, adding that he’s more focused on forthcoming legislation to beef up the Federal Trade Commission’s authority to go after gasoline price manipulation. One path forward would be to incorporate the bill into a broader supplemental spending package being considered by Congress to provide aid to war torn Ukraine, according to Clearview. “If that were to occur, the bill could become law within a matter of weeks,” the firm said in a note. It’s also unclear whether President Joe Biden, who has appealed to OPEC to raise production in response to high prices, would sign a bill targeting the cartel. When Congress passed a version of the bill in 2007, it died under veto threat from President George W. Bush who said it could lead to oil supply disruptions as well as “retaliatory action against American interests.”

UAE, Saudi Arabia energy ministers hit back at NOPEC bill --Top OPEC ministers have hit back at new U.S. legislation intended to regulate its output, saying such efforts would bring greater chaos to energy markets. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told CNBC Tuesday that OPEC was being unfairly targeted over the energy crisis, and moves by U.S. lawmakers to disrupt its established system of production could see oil prices shoot up by as much as 300%. "If you hinder that system, you need to watch what you're asking for, because having a chaotic market you would see … a 200% or 300% increase in the prices that the world cannot handle," Al Mazrouei told CNBC's Dan Murphy during a panel at the World Utilities Congress in Abu Dhabi. The U.S. Senate Committee on Thursday passed a new bipartisan No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels (NOPEC) bill with a 17-4 majority, marking a significant step forward in the decades-old proposal. The bill, which aims to protect U.S. consumers and businesses from engineered spikes in energy prices, would see the alliance open to antitrust lawsuits for orchestrating supply cuts that raise global crude prices. To take effect, it would now need to be passed by the full Senate and the House, before being signed into law by the president. OPEC and its partners have faced pressure from consuming countries, including the U.S. and Japan, for not producing more crude oil amid rising prices and surging inflation. As of Tuesday, Brent oil was trading at around $102 a barrel. Al Mazrouei acknowledged that some members were falling short of their production quotas, but added that the alliance was doing its part to meet global demand amid ongoing geopolitical pressures, namely the war in Ukraine. "We, OPEC+, cannot compensate for the whole 100% of the world requirement," he said. "How much we produce, that is our share. And, actually, I would bet that we are doing much more."

The NOPEC Bill Could Send Oil Prices To $300 -If the U.S. passes the NOPEC bill, a bill designed to pave the way for lawsuits against OPEC members for market manipulation, the oil market could face even more chaos. OPEC’s most influential energy ministers warned against passing the legislation, suggesting it could send oil prices soaring by 200% or 300%. “The last thing we want is someone trying to hinder that system,” the UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said at a conference in Abu Dhabi, referring to the system OPEC has had in place for decades to ensure supply to the market is adequate (adequate according to OPEC’s view). “If you hinder that system, you need to watch what you’re asking for, because having a chaotic market you would see … a 200% or 300% increase in the prices that the world cannot handle,” al-Mazrouei said at a panel at the World Utilities Congress hosted by CNBC’s Dan Murphy. As gasoline prices in America hit record highs, some lawmakers are looking to resurrect the NOPEC legislation that would allow the U.S. Attorney General to sue OPEC or its member states for antitrust behavior. Forms of a NOPEC bill have been considered in Congress committees for nearly two decades, but they have never moved past committee discussions. Now OPEC is warning of greater market chaos if NOPEC becomes law. But it’s not only OPEC that has been warning about the implications for America in setting a precedent to remove sovereign immunity. The most powerful oil lobby in the United States, the American Petroleum Institute (API), is also against such legislation, arguing it would bring unintended harm to America’s oil and gas industry and American interests in the world. So is the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, while the White House expressed “concerns” about the potential implications of such a law.Last week, the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee approved the so-called No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act (NOPEC). Forms of antitrust legislation aimed at OPEC were discussed at various times under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, but they both threatened to veto such legislation.This time, it’s unclear if the bill would be moved for discussion at the Senate, or then to President Joe Biden’s desk, and it’s unclear whether he would sign such legislation into law.

Bipartisan talks push on, but some see delay tactic -Bipartisan energy talks are running full steam ahead while reconciliation remains on ice, and the Biden administration is pitching a new efficiency rule for commercial water heaters. This is Overnight Energy & Environment, your source for the latest news focused on energy, the environment and beyond. For The Hill, we’re Rachel Frazin and Zack Budryk. Someone forward you this newsletter? A group of about a dozen lawmakers is pushing for a bipartisan deal on climate change, meeting three times in two weeks to try to work out a deal that could get 60 votes in an evenly divided Senate. The talks, led by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), appear to have gained momentum as work on a separate reconciliation package that would have included climate provisions sits on ice. However, lawmakers are describing discussions on the bipartisan maneuver as still being relatively early, and it’s not clear whether they will be able to reach a deal that satisfies enough senators on both sides. The latest talks, which took place Wednesday evening, focused on tax credits, which were also a major component of Democrats’ failed Build Back Better bill. Specifically, Build Back Better had incorporated tax credits expected to benefit energy sources including solar, wind and nuclear and things like batteries and carbon capture. Some Democrats had expressed hope that the bipartisan route may be a way to get some of these credits across the finish line and to President Biden’s desk. “There’s a way to get real climate action. In other words, a lot of what was in the reconciliation bill could be in this bipartisan bill,” Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) told The Hill on Tuesday. Irreconcilable differences? Asked why Democrats were pursuing a bipartisan strategy rather than trying to negotiate among themselves, Hickenlooper said, “we don’t have 50 votes.” However, others see a potential bipartisan package as running concurrently with a reconciliation bill. Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) described a “two-track process” that would include a bipartisan climate change bill that “builds on” the bipartisan infrastructure law and another that may “go beyond that.” “We can do both at the same time,” he said.

Manchin’s plan to tax the rich to ease the deficit misses the point -After an entire year of stonewalling Congressional Democrats’ attempts to pass a reconciliation bill, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) again claims to be open to a deal. Democratic leadership is desperate to pass anything, and it looks increasingly likely that if a bill does end up passing, it will look more like a deficit-reduction package than a sweeping social reform bill like the original Build Back Better plan. Manchin’s ideal bill appears to include significant tax increases on the wealthy, but he’s reached the right conclusion for the wrong reasons. We don’t need to tax the rich to cut the deficit, we need to tax the rich because doing so will slow the growing inequality that is destabilizing our nation. The explosion of billionaire wealth in America in recent years (U.S. billionaires got over $2 trillion richer during the pandemic alone) isn’t just unseemly — it’s dangerous. Economic inequality has real-world consequences. When wealthy people are able to undermine the natural competition that arises in a capitalist economy and monopolize access to the resources and opportunities others could utilize to succeed, they end up draining the economy of the growth that would have come from those who didn’t start out wealthy. Less equitable societies have significantly lower long-term economic growth rates. Here in the U.S., rising inequality from 1990 to 2010 shrunk our nation’s GDP by a whopping five percentage points. Whether or not the GOP and their moderate allies want to admit it, inequality will come around to hurt everyone, including the ultra-wealthy. Manchin has outlined changes that would have a significant impact on inequality, like raising the corporate tax rate to 25 percent, increasing the capital gains rate, and eliminating loopholes that allow the wealthy to skirt their tax responsibilities. These changes may not go far enough to effectively stop the out-of-control wealth inequality plaguing our country, but they are a good first step in the right direction. But do we have to wrap these necessary tax changes behind the charade of deficit-trolling? Concern for the deficit is the catch-all excuse usually employed by the Republicans to water down any slightly progressive change that’s proposed or anything that might upset their donors. Now Manchin is reaching into the GOP playbook and pulling out this classic. This excuse only seems to rear its head every time a Democrat suggests spending to make the lives of Americans better or to save our planet from climate change. But when it comes to increasing the military budget to an egregious $770 billion dollars or passing the 2017 GOP tax cut, which drastically cut taxes on the wealthiest corporations and individuals while adding trillions to the debt, suddenly it’s nothing but silence from the deficit hawks.

Whitehouse seeks compromise on carbon border fee - - Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse said he plans to introduce a new carbon border fee in the coming weeks, as talk about the policy heats up on Capitol Hill. The Rhode Island Democrat, a prominent climate hawk, said the bill would enact a border adjustment — effectively an import tariff on carbon-intensive goods — without a full, economywide domestic carbon price, a longtime sticking point in development of the policy. The idea, he said, would be to draw bipartisan support. Republicans have of late seemed open to the idea of a carbon border adjustments as an anti-China geopolitical policy (E&E Daily, May 4). Whitehouse said he plans to introduce the legislation “within the next 10 days or so.” “It’s a carbon tariff on imports of the major energy-intensive goods, like iron and steel and aluminum and cement, glass, pulp paper, fossil fuels themselves, petrochemicals, fertilizer,” Whitehouse said during an event yesterday with sustainability group Ceres. He added that “to the extent that the foreign suppliers are above the American average for emissions, something we’d ask Treasury to calculate, they would pay a tariff based on the overage emissions above our average,” Whitehouse added. American domestic providers with above average emissions would also pay the same tariff price, essentially a carbon fee for high emitters. The price of the tariff, he said, would be modeled on the federal government’s social cost of carbon, which measures the per-ton economic harm of carbon emissions. Whitehouse has previously introduced carbon pricing bills that include a carbon border adjustment, but the new bill would have a decidedly different structure that Whitehouse is hoping could appeal to a wider political audience. The bill comes amid attempts on Capitol Hill to craft a carbon border adjustment that is not tied directly to a domestic carbon pricing regime, a challenge advocacy groups have been grappling with for years. Without a domestic carbon price, experts have raised concerns that a carbon tariff from the United States would violate World Trade Organization rules and set off a wave of protectionism. Still, some Republicans, who have long been hostile to carbon pricing at home, have embraced the border adjustment idea as a way to give U.S. companies an advantage and hit polluting industries that have moved to China. “We wanted to find an alternative way to do this without a straight carbon price in case that became the political hazard,” Whitehouse said yesterday.

Climate bill talks in 'good place,' Whitehouse says - Lawmakers are making headway on bipartisan support for an energy and climate legislative package, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse said Wednesday, as companies head to the Hill for a two-day lobbying spree for carbon-free energy tax credits and other green provisions. During a media briefing with sustainability nonprofit Ceres, Whitehouse said he and his Senate colleagues are “in a good place” to finalize a set of bills to carry out some of Democrats’ climate ambitions that Republican lawmakers and moderate Democrats including Sen. Joe Manchin III, D-W.Va., will support. Among the bills is an updated measure that would place tariffs on the imports of major energy-intensive goods, including iron, steel, aluminum, cement, fossil fuels and petrochemicals, the Rhode Island Democrat said. The legislation appears to be similar to previous measures (S 2378 and HR 4534), though Whitehouse did not specifically mention those bills. Legislative text is expected to be ready within the next two weeks, he added. “There has been very good bipartisan discussion about carbon border adjustment, and I think it's an avenue to make a big step forward,” Whitehouse said of the tariff proposal. Senators on both sides of the aisle have been in discussions in recent weeks to move forward on at least some components from the climate and social reconciliation package (HR 5376) that was thwarted by Manchin’s opposition over costs. Senate Democrats want to pass a legislative package to add and extend tax credits for clean energy and other provisions to reduce emissions before the August recess. Whitehouse said the bipartisan discussions have been helpful to get Manchin and others on board with passing climate and energy-related provisions, including a broad array of Senate Finance Committee-approved tax measures and a methane fee “reboot” that Sen. Thomas R. Carper, D-Del., negotiated. Manchin “may feel comfortable about voting for a reconciliation package with a carbon border adjustment in it if he’s had robust conversation with a lot of Republican colleagues about how that should be structured and that it reflects that there is a sense that it’s a good idea," Whitehouse said. “They're not going to want to vote for reconciliation because it's inherently a partisan thing, but there is information and sentiment and knowledge that goes back and forth between those different tracks.” “As long as the tracks don't get confused, I think we’re in reasonably good shape, and as long as the bipartisan effort isn’t used to handicap or even kneecap the reconciliation effort, then it's all to the good,” Whitehouse added.

Manchin huddles with fracking billionaire Harold Hamm - Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin met with billionaire fracking tycoon Harold Hamm in the Capitol yesterday to discuss energy independence and high prices. The closed-door meeting comes as a bipartisan group led by Manchin continues to discuss energy and climate proposals. Biden administration officials are expected to attend the group’s next gathering, according to one senator. Lawmakers were hoping to meet today but those plans have changed. Details of the encounter between the West Virginia Democrat and the Continental Resources founder and CEO were not made available, but Manchin told E&E News afterward that the talk was centered on information collection. “We are just keeping learning, that’s all,” Manchin said. “We just [wanted to] find out how we can produce in our country to keep energy independence but also be able to keep our prices down and tackle inflation.” Hamm declined comment after the meeting, and Continental Resources did not respond to a request for infirmation about what the oilman discussed with Manchin. Hamm has long been an energy adviser and political financier for Republican politicians, including to former President Donald Trump, who had considered him as a candidate to lead the Department of Energy. Former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt reached out to Hamm earlier this year to gauge support for Pruitt’s Senate run in Oklahoma. Hamm ultimately backed Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) for the seat. The oil and gas industry has highlighted soaring prices to force the Biden administration to abandon policies the industry says are detrimental to energy production. Targets have included pipeline approvals as well as new lease sales for tracts of federal land. Manchin has often echoed those concerns, especially in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) confirmed that Hamm was making the rounds on Capitol Hill as part of a “fly-in” hosted by the Domestic Energy Producers Alliance, a coalition of domestic oil and natural gas companies. “I don’t know what he’s talking to Joe [Manchin] about other than to encourage him. I’m pretty sure they share a lot of the same views,” he said. Hamm served as top fundraiser for Cramer’s Senate bid.

Coal miners press Manchin to back reconciliation bill to extend black lung funding - West Virginia coal miners on Thursday launched a campaign urging Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to support a Democratic budget reconciliation bill that would extend funding for black lung patients. President Biden’s Build Back Better Act, which Manchin torpedoed late last year, included Manchin’s bill to extend an increased coal excise tax that funds benefits for coal miners suffering from black lung disease. The higher tax rate expired at the end of last year, bringing uncertainty to a trust fund that provides monthly payments and medical benefits to more than 25,000 miners battling the debilitating disease. Advocates say that a Democratic reconciliation package is the only major legislative proposal that includes the bill, which would extend the excise tax for 10 years. “That bill is not going to move. It’s gonna have to be included in a package, and right now this is the only package that has been proposed that would fit this bill,” Courtney Rhoades, an organizer at the Appalachian Citizens’ Law Center, said during a Thursday press conference in Charleston. Roughly 1 in 5 coal miners in central Appalachia suffer from black lung disease, advocates say, which is caused by miners inhaling toxic coal and silica dust on the job. Doctors haven’t found a cure to the deadly disease, which slowly cuts off oxygen flow. As part of their “We’re Counting on You, Joe” campaign, advocates are running digital and radio ads in West Virginia urging Manchin to take action. “If we don’t get something passed, we’ve got to wait until next year to get something done,” said Gary Hairston, president of the National Black Lung Association. “So we need Joe on board with us today.”

House plans to vote next week on energy price-gouging bill - House Democrats will move legislation next week that would give the Federal Trade Commission expanded clout to crack down on allegations of price gouging by energy companies.Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said yesterday the House would vote on a bill, H.R. 7688, introduced last week by Reps. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and Kim Schrier (D-Wash.), as Democrats’ first legislative effort to rein in gas prices that hit record highs in recent days.“It so happens that we are doing this one next week, that does not preclude doing other” bills aimed at lowering energy costs, Hoyer told reporters at his weekly pen and pad session.The legislation would give the president the authority to issue an energy emergency declaration that would make it unlawful to sell gasoline or home fuel that’s price is “unconsciously excessive” or exploitative. It would grant the FTC authority to enforce violations with a priority given to acting against domestic companies with more than $500 million annually in wholesale or retail sales of consumer fuel. The bill would also give state attorneys general authority to pursue actions against retail violators in federal court. Any financial penalties collected would go into a fund that would provide dollars for the low-income heating assistance program and weatherization efforts, according to the legislation. “Congress needs to be doing all it can to bring down costs for American families. What’s infuriating is that this is happening at the same time that gas and oil companies are making record profits and taking advantage of international crises to make a profit. This must stop,” said Schrier, an Energy and Commerce Committee member, echoing arguments made by Democratic leaders in both chambers in recent weeks. Democrats have introduced multiple bills in recent weeks taking aim at energy price manipulation (E&E Daily, April 29). In a press conference last week, Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), the chair of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, said Democrats wanted to “make sure that there is a policeman on the beat” to “shine that bright light into these dark energy markets.” Democratic leaders have not ruled out other options, including targeted consumer gas tax rebates or forcing energy companies holding drilling leases on federal lands to lose their rights or face other penalties if they are not pursuing production.

Congress Picks Populism Over Increased Supply With Price Gouging Legislation - Democrats continue to decry high gasoline prices and accuse oil companies of price gouging, but lawmakers should consider whether their policies restricting domestic energy production are to blame for soaring consumer prices. Democrats may want to look in the mirror before pointing the finger at the people who create jobs and produce the energy this country runs on. The Democrats' own policies are causing the energy scarcity that's driving up prices. Oil and gas prices have risen because of falling supply. Less than a decade ago, there were 1,600 active drilling rigs in the country producing or searching for oil; now, there's a quarter of that number. There were twice as many drilling rigs operating in the Gulf of Mexico before the pandemic hit in spring 2020. That was also the last time oil was at or above $100 a barrel. Why? Because the energy sector faces severe supply chain shortages, including skilled workers who left the industry during the pandemic, and shortages of critical materials such as frac sand and wellbores that have become scarce and expensive. Those factors have combined to restrain American oil production, which now sits around 11.6 million barrels per day compared to a peak in 2019 of 13 million per day. Democrats know high energy costs and inflation are a problem in the midterm elections and are desperate to show that they are addressing the issue. They are sticking to their populist playbook of blaming corporate America for profiteering. They have bashed oil companies – incorrectly – for price gouging since consumer prices at the pump started rising after President Joe Biden took office over a year ago. Congressional Democrats are proposing numerous bills against Big Oil for the crime of profiteering. Now, they plan to introduce legislation next week that would expand the Federal Trade Commission's authority to investigate price gouging and give the President the power to declare an energy emergency and limit price increases.The FTC already has all the authority necessary to act against manipulation in wholesale and retail oil markets. Dozens of federal investigations into price gouging – the most recent was done in November at Biden's request – have failed to turn up evidence that producers are keeping prices artificially high. Repeated FTC investigations have found that changes in gasoline prices are based on market factors – rising demand meeting limited supply – not illegal behavior.

Biden’s tax on unrealized gains will hit far more taxpayers than he claims -President Biden and Congressional Democrats say they want to make “the rich” pay their “fair share.” Their solution is a massive transformation of the tax system to levy an annual tax on unrealized gains of assets like stocks, real estate and collectibles. This proposal should be alarming to all Americans as it would drastically expand the IRS’s powers and create new complexity in the tax code. It could grow to hit millions of Americans over time, harm the economy, and is very likely unconstitutional. President Biden’s Fiscal Year 2023 budget calls for imposing an annual 20 percent tax on taxpayers with income and assets that exceed $100 million, a $360 billion tax increase. This tax is similar to taxes that have long been supported by progressive lawmakers like Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Currently, taxpayers only pay capital gains tax when they sell an asset. This plan would create a “mark to market” regime, forcing Americans to pay taxes every year on the gain in the value of assets like stocks, collectibles, and real estate. In order to enforce this tax, the IRS would have to be given vast new powers to value the assets of taxpayers. This would be an extremely invasive and difficult task. The agency would have to keep detailed lists of assets of items like jewelry, art, baseball cards, and more. With the IRS’s history of discrimination and malpractice, it should be concerning to have agents collect this information. In the case of a leak, which happens often at the IRS, taxpayers could be subject to burglary or, at the very least, a gross invasion of privacy. There would also be significant compliance and administrative issues with this tax. Many assets cannot easily be valued so both the taxpayer and the federal government would be required to hire armies of accountants and lawyers to determine valuations. A tax on unrealized gains would harm the economy. Taxpayers impacted by the tax on unrealized gains will be incentivized to move overseas in order to avoid the tax, moving much-needed capital outside the U.S. For those who keep their assets in the U.S., this tax would still lead to a reduction in new investment in the economy, harming working families via wage reduction.

AG Garland Rules Judges May Consider Criminal Illegal Aliens’ Mental Health When Reviewing Asylum Claims - The Biden administration has said that judges may take into consideration the mental health of criminal illegal immigrants who have been convicted of “particularly serious crimes” when considering asylum cases. Under the Immigration and Nationality Act, illegal immigrants seeking entry into the country would be made ineligible for both asylum and withholding of removal—whereby illegal immigrants remain in the United States after demonstrating that they would likely face persecution in their country of origin due to their race, nationality, religion, or political opinion, among others—if they have been convicted of a “particularly serious crime” and are found to be a danger to the community of the United States. However, Attorney General Merrick Garland ruled on May 9 that judges considering such cases may now take into consideration the mental health of these immigrants in their rulings. Garland’s decision overturns a 2014 Board of Immigration Appeals ruling, in a case known as “Matter of G-G-S” (pdf), in which “a person’s mental health is not a factor to be considered in a particularly serious crime analysis.” That determination rested on two factors, the first one being “whether and to what extent an individual’s mental illness or disorder is relevant to his or her commission of an offense and conviction for a crime are issues best resolved in criminal proceedings by finders of fact,” and the fact that immigration adjudicators “cannot go behind the decisions of the criminal judge and reassess any ruling on criminal culpability.” The second factor is that the board concluded that an illegal alien’s “mental condition does not relate to the pivotal issue in a particularly serious crime analysis, which is whether the nature of his convictions he sentence imposed, and the circumstances and underlying facts indicate that he posed a danger to the community.”The “Matter of G-G-S” case involved a Mexican man who was convicted in 2004 of assault with a deadly weapon and sentenced to two years in prison.From an early age, the man suffered from chronic paranoid schizophrenia, according to an interim decision on the case. The immigration judge found that the man’s offense was a “crime of violence aggravated felony,” and further determined that it was a “particularly serious crime,” which barred him from establishing eligibility for withholding of removal.However, the man sought to block his deportation by stating that his mental health condition should be a factor in determining whether his offense was a particularly serious crime and claimed that “his mental illness prevented him from solving a complex social situation such as being aggressively challenged by a stranger” and consequently resulted in him being violent. Garland in December directed the board to send him the case for review.

NPR reporter says ‘leading theory’ on SCOTUS leak is conservative clerk - A clerk for a conservative justice is the “leading theory” amid intense speculation about who released a draft opinion authored by Justice Samuel Alito showing the court is set to overturn Roe v. Wade, according to legal affairs correspondent Nina Totenberg of NPR.Totenberg said on ABC’s “This Week” that the prevailing theory is that a conservative clerk released the decision in an attempt to lock in the five justices who voted to support overturning Roe as Chief Justice John Roberts reportedly attempts to pull his colleagues toward a more moderate position.“That has never, ever occurred before,” Totenberg said of the leak. “That could only, in all likelihood, have come from a justice — that I think is less likely — or perhaps one of the clerks.”“The only one that makes sense is it came from somebody who was afraid that this majority might not hold,” she added.Politico leaked Alito’s draft opinion on Monday, spurring protests across the nation as liberals raised fears of abortion rights being overturned for the first time since 1973.Roberts condemned the leak and ordered an investigation into who was behind the move, which he called “a singular and egregious breach” of trust. Republicans have decried the leak as an injustice and suggested it is a political attack from an outraged liberal. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) called it a “stunning breach” and “an attack on the independence of the Supreme Court.”

Yellen: Banning abortion would be ‘very damaging’ to U.S. economy - - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday argued that banning abortion would be “very damaging” for the economy by reducing women’s ability to balance their careers and their families.“I believe that eliminating the right of women to make decisions about when and whether to have children would have very damaging effects on the economy and would set women back decades,” she said in response to a question at a Senate Banking Committee hearing.The disclosure of a draft Supreme Court decision that would overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark case that guaranteed federal constitutional protections of abortion rights, has set off a firestorm across the country as people grapple with the possibility that terminating a pregnancy could become illegal in some states. In her comments, Yellen said the 1973 ruling helped allow women to finish school and increase their earning potential, leading to higher participation in the workforce.“Research also shows that it had a favorable impact on the well-being and earnings of children,” she said. “There are many research studies that have been done over the years looking at the economic impacts of access or lack thereof to abortion, and it makes clear that denying women access to abortion increases their odds of living in poverty or need for public assistance.”Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) later in the hearing pressed her on her answer, arguing that framing the issue of abortion around labor force participation “feels callous to me.” “It means that children will grow up in poverty and do worse themselves,” Yellen responded. “This is not harsh. This is the truth.” Scott said there was plenty of room to discuss child care, financial literacy and child tax credits to improve outcomes for American kids. “I’ll just say that as a guy raised by a Black woman in abject poverty, I am thankful to be here as a United States senator,” he said.

Experts Warn GOP War on Abortion Will Turn Red and Blue States Into ‘Mutually Hostile Legal Territories’ -As the U.S. Supreme Court’s right-wing majority appears poised to overturn landmark decisions protecting reproductive rights and more, experts are warning that the GOP’s war on abortion will lead to interstate legal battles that threaten to “tear America apart,” as New York Times opinion columnist Michelle Goldberg put it on Friday.Justice Samuel Alito’s leaked draft majority opinion indicates that the high court has voted 5-4 to strike down Roe v. Wade and its companion, Planned Parenthood v. Casey.If this ruling is not dramatically altered before it is officially issued in June or July, “we will have two wildly different abortion regimes in this country,” wrote Goldberg. “The demise of Roe will exacerbate America’s antagonisms, creating more furious legal rifts between states than we’ve seen in modern times.”Abortion could be outlawed in up to 26 states as soon as next month, with no exceptions for rape or incest in 11 states, according to the Guttmacher Institute. Louisiana Republicans are advancing a bill that would allow prosecutors to charge abortion patients and providers with homicide.“Blue states, meanwhile, are setting themselves as abortion sanctuaries,” Goldberg wrote. “Oregon lawmakers recently passed a bill to create a $15 million fund to help cover abortion costs, including for those traveling to the state for the procedure. Something similar is in the works in California. Abortion clinics in Illinois, bordered by several states where abortion is likely to be made illegal, are preparing for a huge influx of patients.”“The right won’t be content to watch liberal states try to undermine abortion bans,” Goldberg continued. She cited a forthcoming article in The Columbia Law Review, which argues that “overturning Roe and Casey will create a novel world of complicated, interjurisdictional legal conflicts over abortion.”David S. Cohen, a law professor at Drexel University and co-author of the paper, told Bloomberg Law earlier this week that imposing forced-pregnancy laws on other states is “the next frontier in anti-abortion legislation.”“It’s going to be an invitation to states to innovate in restricting and banning abortion,” said Cohen. “There are going to be a number of states [that] are not satisfied with just knowing that there’s no abortion happening in their own state. They’re going to want to do more than that.” Missouri state Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman (R-97) is already attempting to bar pregnant people from leaving the state to get an abortion, as thousands of residents have done since Republican Gov. Mike Parson enacted a ban in 2019.

Democrats’ strategy now should be clear -Carol Tobias, president of the National Right to Life Committee (NRLC), recently assured — or warned — America that “If a dog catches a car, it doesn’t know what to do. We do.” Arguably, these are the strongest words we’ve heard from a pro-life leader in the wake of news that the U.S. Supreme Court has prepared a draft ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade.Tobias is not new to this game. She’s been active in the pro-life movement for four decades, and has spent the past 25 years — more than half of the 1973 Roe ruling’s lifespan — on the NRLC board of directors. In other words, she of — all people — is more than equipped to back up her words.She indicates the anti-abortion movement has additional plans for after the expected ruling.The question now is whether most conservatives will join her.Rather than celebrate last week’s reported draft ruling, conservatives buried the lede —a lede they’ve been writing for nearly half a century — in favor of condemnation of an unknown leaker.The leak — not their supposedly unbending devotion to strangers’ zygotes and fetuses — dominated Republicans’ attention.At a rally in Pennsylvania on Friday, former President Donald Trump barely even alluded to the anticipated SCOTUS edict — downright bizarre behavior from a man who never shies from celebrating victories, even when such victories are actually defeats.In Congress, Republicans are somehow on the defensive, as if they realize a nationwide abortion ban might make the Affordable Care Act look like a post office re-naming. And of course, they’d be right.Last year I explained why Democrats needed to make “every future election a referendum on whether the government should control human bodies.” The polls have been on the pro-choice movement’s side almost continuously in the past 50 years. Simply put, they would be foolish not to put Republicans on the defensive.And that’s what makes Tobias’s bold statement all the more curious. Who is the “we” in her remarks? Because surely Republican congressional leaders have no idea what to do after catching the car. Neither does Trump, his party’s likely 2024 nominee (should he choose to run again).Ironically, the pro-life movement was close to achieving its ultimate goal of passing a federal law outlawing abortions (that also would have been upheld by the Supreme Court). At no time since 1973 have conservatives simultaneously held majorities in all three branches of government — yet they now control the court and appeared to be on their way to re-claiming both the U.S. House and Senate in 2022, and seemed to have a good shot at winning back the White House in 2024.If Justice S amuel Alito and his fellow conservatives on the court had simply waited 30 months, they could have achieved everything they and their movement could have wanted. To borrow from Tobias’s analogy, they caught the car, but it was a backfiring Ford Edsel.

Why Democrats’ control of the White House and Congress isn't enough to pass law protecting abortion --Supporters of abortion rights are calling on Congress to pass a federal law that protects the right to abortion after Politicopublished a draft of a Supreme Court majority opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade. Overturning Roe, the 1973 landmark ruling that recognized the constitutional right to an abortion, would allow each state to set its own laws regarding abortion access. Some social media users, seemingly incensed by President Joe Biden’s response to the leaked draft, took aim at Democrats. "This morning Biden said ‘it will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this November,’" reads one May 4 Facebook post. "The Democrats control the Senate, House, & WH. They have the power to make legal abortion the law of the land once and for all. Instead, they treat women’s rights like a bargaining chip."The post was flagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. The post correctly quotes Biden’s May 3 statement that addressed the leaked Supreme Court draft opinion. "If the Court does overturn Roe, it will fall on our nation’s elected officials at all levels of government to protect a woman’s right to choose," Biden said. "And it will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this November. At the federal level, we will need more pro-choice Senators and a pro-choice majority in the House to adopt legislation that codifies Roe, which I will work to pass and sign into law."Democrats currently control the House, Senate and the White House. That power has significant limits, however, and Biden has a point when he says Democrats will need more members of Congress who support abortion rights to enact a federal law protecting those rights. In the 100-member Senate, Republicans hold 50 seats, Democrats hold 48 seats and the final two seats are held by independents who caucus and often vote in line with Democratic legislators.Vice President Kamala Harris has the constitutional authority to vote when the Senate is evenly divided and can cast the tie-breaking vote for Democrats when needed.However, under longstanding Senate procedure, Democrats need more than a simple majority to pass legislation that codifies Roe into law. Because of the filibuster, which essentially allows legislation to be blocked by a minority of 41 senators. The filibuster is a "loosely defined term for action designed to prolong debate and delay or prevent a vote on a bill, resolution, amendment, or other debatable question," according to the Senate’s website. All this means that Democrats, whose total Senate votes fall short of 60 even when the caucus is united, do not have the power to pass legislation that would make abortion legal nationwide. And Democratic senators aren’t exactly united in their stance on abortion.

Efforts To Codify Roe vs Wade Fail In The Senate -The Senate voted on May 11 to filibuster the Democratic-sponsored Women’s Health Protection Act (WHPA), which would have codified the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion ruling into federal law as the Supreme Court appears intent on striking down the precedent. The 51–49 procedural cloture motion vote was mostly party-line, with all Republicans and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) voting against the measure. The measure failed as expected because Democrats didn’t meet the 60-vote filibuster threshold needed to advance the legislation in the upper chamber. According to a draft opinion leaked to Politico and published on May 2—written by Justice Samuel Alito and confirmed as genuine by the court—a majority of the justices have agreed preliminarily to overturn Roe v. Wade. The court hasn’t yet issued a final opinion. Under the 1973 standard, states are prohibited from imposing restrictions on abortion in the first trimester, during which SCOTUS ruled that the mother’s right to privacy outweighed state interest in protecting life. The move effectively overturned existing abortion laws in more than two dozen states, and since then, pro-life advocates have fought to return the power to regulate abortion to the states. Democrats decided immediately after the draft was leaked to try again on the WHPA, which the Senate failed to advance in February. A different version of the legislation was passed by the House of Representatives in September 2021 in a party-line vote, with Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), a pro-life Catholic, being the only Democrat to oppose it. That legislation stated that abortion services are a constitutional right, as decided by SCOTUS in Roe v. Wade and that access to abortion “has been obstructed across the United States in various ways,” including by state laws. It also stated that health care providers would be able to carry out abortions with virtually no limitations or requirements, a provision aimed at preempting new state laws, as well as superseding some current state laws restricting the procedure. With the threat of Roe being repealed looming, Democrats tried to soften the language of the measure from its earlier form. However, given the composition of the Senate, it was never likely to pass. In a speech prior to the vote on the legislation, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) made an impassioned plea for its passage. “Women’s rights face their greatest threat in half a century,” Schumer said. “The legislation before this chamber is straightforward. It would codify what Americans already believe: that the right to choose whether or not to have an abortion belongs to women, not elected politicians.”

Sanders: GOP Ended Filibuster to Pack Supreme Court, So Dems Must End It to Save Abortion Rights -On the eve of a key procedural vote on the Women’s Health Protection Act, Sen. Bernie Sanders said in a floor speech Tuesday that the Senate’s Democratic majority must use its power to end the legislative filibuster and codify abortion rights into federal law.Sanders (I-Vt.), the chair of the Senate Budget Committee, acknowledged that Senate Democrats don’t currently have the 60 votes needed to overcome the filibuster, an archaic rule that has enabled the Republican minority to stonewall much of the majority party’s agenda over the past year.“It is not good enough to just talk about passing this bill,” Sanders said of the WHPA, legislation that would cement the right to abortion care free from medically unnecessary restrictions as the U.S. Supreme Court’s right-wing majority gears up to overturn Roe v. Wade.“We must end the filibuster and pass it with 50 votes,” said the Vermont senator. “You know, I hear a lot of talk from my Democratic colleagues about the need for unity. Well, if there was ever a time for unity, now is that time.”Despite calling Wednesday’s vote “one of the most important… in decades,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has not given any indication that he plans to pursue filibuster reform if Republicans and right-wing Democrats block the WHPA.Just 50 votes and a tie-breaker from the vice president are required to eliminate or weaken the filibuster, but at least two right-wing Democrats—Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.)—have refused to accept any changes to the rule. Both Democratic senators openly defended the filibuster in the hours after Justice Samuel Alito’s extremist draft opinion was leaked to the press.With Manchin opposed to the WHPA and the filibuster intact, the House-passed legislation is doomed to fail in the Senate.In his speech Tuesday, Sanders noted that Republicans’ 2017 decision to eliminate the 60-vote filibuster for Supreme Court nominees empowered them to “do what they could not do legislatively: Make abortion illegal.”“Candidate Donald Trump promised that he would only nominate Supreme Court justices who supported overturning Roe v. Wade,” Sanders said. “And, unfortunately, out of the many lies Trump made during his campaign and presidency, this seems to be the one promise he kept.”The Vermont senator emphasized that Alito, a George W. Bush nominee, as well as Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett were selected by presidents who lost the popular vote. All four justices—plus Clarence Thomas, who was nominated by George H.W. Bush—are expected to vote to overturn Roe. “Is it any wonder why Americans all over the country are losing faith in their democracy?” Sanders said. “If Republicans can end the filibuster to install right-wing justices nominated by presidents who lost the popular vote in order to overturn Roe v. Wade, Democrats can and must end the filibuster to make abortion legal and safe.”\

Susan Rice becomes latest Biden official to test positive for COVID-19 --White House domestic policy adviser Susan Rice said Monday that she tested positive for the coronavirus, the latest person in President Biden’s orbit to do so. “This morning I tested positive for COVID-19,” Rice tweeted. “I’m feeling fine and grateful to be vaccinated and double boosted. I last saw the President in person on Wednesday—masked—and under CDC guidance he is not considered a close contact.” Rice is among a handful of Biden administration officials and members of the media who have tested positive since the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) dinner at the end of April. It’s unclear when or where she contracted the virus.

U.S. 'vulnerable' without new shots, says WH COVID chief [Video] (AP) — White House COVID-19 coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha issued a dire warning Thursday that the U.S. will be increasingly vulnerable to the coronavirusthis fall and winter if Congress doesn't swiftly approve new funding for more vaccines and treatments. In an Associated Press interview, Jha said Americans' immune protection from the virus is waning, the virus is adapting to be more contagious and booster doses for most people will be necessary — with the potential for enhanced protection from a new generation of shots.His warning came as the White House said there could be up to 100 million infections from the virus later this year — and as President Biden somberly ordered flags to half-staff to mark 1 million deaths."As we get to the fall, we are all going to have a lot more vulnerability to a virus that has a lot more immune escape than even it does today and certainly than it did six months ago,” Jha said. "That leaves a lot of us vulnerable.”Jha predicted that the next generation of vaccines, which are likely to be targeted at the currently prevailing omicron strain, “are going to provide a much, much higher degree of protection against the virus that we will encounter in the fall and winter." But he warned that the U.S. is at risk of losing its place in line to other countries if Congress doesn't act in the next several weeks.Speaking of a need to provide vaccination assistance to other nations, Jha cast the urgency in terms of the benefits to Americans, even if they never travel overseas.“All of these variants were first identified outside of the United States," he said. "If the goal is to protect the American people, we have got to make sure the world is vaccinated. I mean, there’s just no domestic-only approach here.”His comments came after he and Biden addressed the second global COVID-19 vaccination summit and pressed for the international community not to get complacent in addressing the pandemic. Here in the U.S., Biden requested $22.5 billion in emergency funding for the virus response in March, but the money has been held up, first by sticker-shock in Congress and now amid wrangling over expiring pandemic-era migrant restrictions at the U.S.-Mexico border.Jha said he’s been making the case to lawmakers for additional funding for weeks, calling it a “very pared down request” and “the bare minimum that we need to get through this fall and winter without large loss of life.”

 Baby formula shortage adds to Biden’s growing stockpile of challenges - A national shortage of baby formula is the latest challenge facing President Biden. The White House is already managing the highest inflation rate in decades, a war in Ukraine triggered by Russia’s invasion, a lingering pandemic and sky-high gas prices. There’s also the likelihood that the Supreme Court this summer will strike down the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. Now it can deal with panic over the baby formula shortage, which is causing consternation from coast to coast. The Food and Drug Administration is working to fix it. “Like we didn’t have enough problems,” one Biden ally quipped in an interview on Tuesday. “Sure, throw in baby formula.” Biden has had his hands full with short-term, medium-term and long-term problems, many of them related. The baby formula shortage is being exacerbated by supply chain problems that also have caused inflation to rise. Biden in a White House speech on Tuesday identified inflation, which is making the midterm landscape for Democrats bleaker by the day, as his top issue. Gas prices hit another peak on Tuesday, and they are being affected by the Ukraine war. Coronavirus cases are also ticking up again, a reminder that the pandemic hasn’t gone away. In China, lockdowns caused by the pandemic are contributing to economic malaise in the United States. The baby formula shortage has led retailers including Amazon and Target to limit the amount of formula people can purchase online and in stores. White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Monday said the availability of the product is “a priority for the FDA and they’re working around the clock to address any possible shortage.” But Psaki stopped shy of saying the White House could take any additional steps. “I don’t believe there’s a national stockpile of baby formula,” she said. By Tuesday, the FDA had issued a lengthy outline of the steps it is taking to address the shortage, which include meeting with infant formula manufacturers, monitoring supply and taking steps to expedite production. “We are doing everything in our power to ensure there is adequate product available where and when they need it,” FDA Commissioner Robert Califf said in a statement.

 Baby formula shortage spurs action from Congress - A nationwide shortage of baby formula has spurred a response from several House committees in an effort to figure out what's caused the issue and how the government can ease the problems causing the shortages.Two House committees announced this week they are looking into the issue, with a spokesperson telling CNN that the House Committee on Oversight and Reform on Friday morning sent letters to four separate companies that produce baby formula requesting information about the supply chain issues.Additionally, a House Energy and Commerce Committee spokesperson announced a hearing on baby formula for May 25 and told CNN they plan to call representatives from the Food and Drug Administration and Abbott, a major baby formula producer, to testify.American stores have had a hard time keeping baby formula in stock for months due to a recall, inflation and supply chain problems. Manufacturers have said they are producing at full capacity, but it's not enough to keep up with demand. While this has become a bipartisan issue on Capitol Hill, lawmakers are pointing fingers at different parties for the issue, with Democrats blaming the companies and Republicans blaming the Biden administration and FDA.

 Buttigieg Touts Infrastructure Grants Proposal - Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg pointed to grants proposed by the Biden White House for fiscal 2023 as funding that potentially could modernize major aspects of the country’s mobility network. During a U.S. House appropriations panel hearing May 10, Buttigieg emphasized the $1.5 billion requested for the Rebuilding American Infrastructure with Sustainability and Equity (RAISE) program would assist state agencies with improving existing infrastructure. Such improvements would ideally facilitate the movement of freight along supply chains. “We understand that the tremendous opportunity we’ve been given to help modernize our country’s infrastructure comes with a profound responsibility to use taxpayer dollars efficiently and wisely; and to make resources more accessible to state and local governments so they can build good projects,” the secretary told the House Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Appropriations Subcommittee. Overall, President Joe Biden is requesting $142 billion in fiscal 2023 for the U.S. Department of Transportation. Infrastructure Stories “This type of infrastructure transformation only happens at most once every generation, and it only happens if we work together,” Buttigieg added. Specific to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, which regulates the trucking industry, the president is requesting $367.5 million for safety operations and programs. For FMCSA’s safety grants division, the budget proposes $506.1 million. Additionally, the secretary expressed confidence that the recently enacted $1 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act also would assist state agencies with modernization efforts. That law is commonly referred to as the bipartisan infrastructure law. More than $500 billion for highway-centric projects, with a focus on climate change, gained approval under the law. Congressional appropriators have yet to schedule consideration of the fiscal 2023 transportation funding legislation. Federal funding authorization expires at the end of September.

'One of the greatest mysteries of our time': Congress to hold UFO hearing next week - A House committee will hold a public hearing on UFOs next Tuesday for the first time in decades, as Congress presses the Pentagon and other national security agencies for more answers on reports of mysterious aircraft violating protected airspace.The session before the House Intelligence Committee’s Counterterrorism, Counterintelligence, and Counterproliferation Subcommittee comes fives months after the National Defense Authorization Act required the military to establish a permanent UFO research office and take a series of other steps to collect and investigate reports of “unidentified aerial phenomena.”“The American people expect and deserve their leaders in government and intelligence to seriously evaluate and respond to any potential national security risks — especially those we do not fully understand,” the panel chair, Rep. André Carson, said in a statement on Tuesday. “Since coming to Congress, I’ve been focused on the issue of unidentified aerial phenomena as both a national security threat and an interest of great importance to the American public.”Testifying before the panel will be Ronald Moultrie, the Pentagon’s top intelligence official, and Scott Bray, the deputy director of naval intelligence.The hearing, Carson said, “will give the American people an opportunity to learn what there is to know about these incidents.”A number of congressional oversight committees have been grappling with the issue since revelations first reported by POLITICO and The New York Times in 2017 that the Pentagon had a secret UFO research office and multiple Navy pilots and radar operators came forward with their testimony of encounters with strange, high performance craft.The scheduled hearing “is a deliberate attempt by lawmakers to ensure the American people have access to information that their tax dollars paid for in the first place,” said Luis Elizondo, the former Pentagon official who came forward in 2017 with his frustrations that not enough attention was being paid to understanding the aerial intrusions.

 House GOP leader McCarthy, four other Republicans subpoenaed by Jan. 6 panel - The House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot issued subpoenas to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and four other members of his conference, demanding they appear for a deposition — a move that comes after they refused to voluntarily sit for interviews. Chairman Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., sent subpoenas to McCarthy and Reps. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, Jim Jordan of Ohio, Andy Biggs of Arizona and Mo Brooks of Alabama. He directed them to sit for depositions at the end of the month. All of those members dismissed opportunities to meet voluntarily with the special panel. Thompson’s significant action comes as the committee is gearing up to hold public hearings in June and amounts to a dramatic turn in its probe of what happened before, during and after the attack by a pro-Donald Trump mob. “The Select Committee has learned that several of our colleagues have information relevant to our investigation into the attack on January 6th and the events leading up to it,” Thompson said in a statement. “Before we hold our hearings next month, we wished to provide members the opportunity to discuss these matters with the committee voluntarily. Regrettably, the individuals receiving subpoenas today have refused and we’re forced to take this step to help ensure the committee uncovers facts concerning January 6th.” Stephanie Murphy, D-Fla., a Jan. 6 panel member, was asked Thursday what the committee would do if the five members opt to ignore the subpoenas. She replied: “We’ll handle that when that happens.” One of the only two Republicans on the investigatory committee, Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, said of the summoned Republicans: “I certainly hope that they will do their duty. That they will do the right thing.” “And the unprecedented nature of the attack, and of the fact that we have members who have information about an attack on our body and have been unwilling to come and talk to the committee is [a] very serious and grave situation," Cheney told reporters. "And this determination to issue these subpoenas was not a decision the committee made lightly, but it is absolutely a necessary one. And I would hope that my colleagues, you know, will understand that the sanctity of this body and the continued functioning of our constitutional republic requires that we ensure that there never be an attack like that again.” When asked by Capitol Hill pool reporters if he intends to comply with the subpoena, McCarthy did not answer directly. “I have not seen the subpoena. I guess they sent it to you guys before they sent it to me,” the California Republican said. He added that his view that the panel is “not conducting a legitimate investigation” has not changed.

Republicans blast SEC climate rule, demand hearing - House Republicans are growing increasingly angry with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as the agency embarks on a landmark effort to require public disclosure of climate risk and greenhouse gas emissions. In a pair of letters last week, GOP lawmakers blasted the SEC’s proposed climate disclosure rule and called for a hearing with the full commission to discuss its broader agenda. It’s a preview of how Republicans might seek to go after the executive branch and the Biden administration if they take back the House next year. “The Climate Disclosure Rule would represent the largest expansion of SEC authority without a clear legislative mandate from Congress,” wrote one group of House Republicans, led by Oversight and Reform ranking member James Comer (R-Ky.), in a letter to SEC Chair Gary Gensler. The lawmakers requested documents related to the proposal and a staff briefing this week. The letter comes as part of an ongoing congressional fight over the SEC’s authority and how financial regulators should handle climate risk generally. The SEC voted 3-1 earlier this year to approve a proposal that would require publicly traded companies to disclose the risks they face from climate change, as well as elements of their greenhouse gas emissions footprints (Greenwire, March 21). The agency said yesterday it would extend the public comment period on the proposed rule until June 17. Congressional Democrats have for years pushed for financial regulators to take up the issue. And while some took issue with how the SEC is proposing to tackle greenhouse emissions — namely that the proposal could allow companies to omit much of the pollution in supply chains and downstream products — it represents a potential policy win years in the making. Republicans, on the other hand, view it as a gross overstep of SEC authority and an attempt to make energy policy through a financial regulator (E&E Daily, March 22). In the letter, Comer and other GOP lawmakers said the rule would “require publicly traded companies to answer over 700 different inquiries about their greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, and the risk to the company from the potential impacts of climate change.” “This is another example of the Biden Administration’s attempt to extend the reach of the federal government to promote its radical climate agenda without any consideration of the burden(s) on small businesses,” they wrote. Adding fuel to the fire is a separate group of House Republicans on the Financial Services Committee, who are requesting a hearing with Gensler and other members of the SEC. In a letter to Chair Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), Republicans said they had asked last year for a hearing with the full commission but have gotten no response. “However, since then, the SEC has taken several actions outside the scope of its authority and jurisdiction, and it has done so without giving stakeholders a fair chance to provide input,” wrote ranking member Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) and Investor Protection, Entrepreneurship and Capital Markets Subcommittee ranking member Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.). “It is imperative that our full Committee convene to discuss the SEC’s unprecedented rulemaking agenda and hear the full range of views on the Commission,” they said.

Elon Musk says he would reverse Twitter ban on Donald Trump - — Elon Musk said he would reverse Twitter’s ban on former president Donald Trump, articulating for the first time his stance on one of the most consequential decisions before him at the social media site he is acquiring. “I do think it was not correct to ban Donald Trump. I think that was a mistake,” Musk said at an event Tuesday hosted by the Financial Times. “It alienated a large part of the country and did not ultimately result in Donald Trump not having a voice.” The ban, he added, “was a morally bad decision, to be clear, and foolish in the extreme.” Twitter had banned Trump’s account shortly after a mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, citing the “risk of further incitement of violence.” Musk — one of Twitter’s most prolific users, with more than 90 million followers — has agreed to purchase the social media company for roughly $44 billion, arguing that the site should host unfettered free speech and function as a “de facto town square.” He has broadly criticized Twitter’s content moderation decisions, arguing that the company’s permanent bans for rule-breaking accounts should have instead been temporary removals, so as not to suppress their use of the site long-term. What Elon Musk has said about Twitter Musk’s decision to un-ban Trump would not only overturn one of the most significant and widely debated corporate rulings in American tech. It could also hand the former president back a megaphone he had used for years to capture the world’s attention — and shout down his adversaries — at a moment when he is boosting allies during the 2022 midterm elections and preparing for an expected presidential run in 2024.

Dorsey weighs in on Twitter bans after Musk says Trump’s would be lifted - Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey said he does not believe there should be permanent bans on the platform, with limited exceptions, after Elon Musk said Tuesday he would reverse Twitter’s ban of former President Trump following the completion of his acquisition. “Musk says @jack agrees with him that there shouldn’t be permanent bans on individual Twitter users. Reminder that Dorsey was CEO when such bans were implemented,” Dan Primack, Axios business editor, tweeted on Tuesday.Dorsey responded in his own tweet, writing, “I do agree. There are exceptions (CSE, illegal behaviour, spam or network manipulation, etc), but generally permanent bans are a failure of ours and don’t work, which I wrote about here after the event (and called for a resilient social media protocol).” His statement quote-tweeted a statement he wrote in January 2021, after Twitter barred Trump from the platform following the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot, in which a mob of Trump supporters, fueled by the former president’s baseless claims about the 2020 election, sought to stop Congress from certifying the results. Twitter cited concerns that more violence could be spurred on by Trump’s tweets. Dorsey defended the decision at the time, saying “I believe this was the right decision for Twitter. We faced an extraordinary and untenable circumstance, forcing us to focus all of our actions on public safety.” But he also added that “having to ban an account has real and significant ramifications. While there are clear and obvious exceptions, I feel a ban is a failure of ours ultimately to promote healthy conversation.” Musk said earlier on Tuesday during the Financial Times’s “Future of the Car” event that he would allow the former president back on, when his acquisition of the company is completed, saying he believed Twitter’s decision at the time was “a mistake.” “It alienated a large part of the country and did not ultimately result in Donald Trump not having a voice,” he said. The executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) said in a statement that the organization also believes Trump should be allowed back on the social media platform. “Like it or not, President Trump is one of the most important political figures in this country, and the public has a strong interest in hearing his speech. Indeed, some of Trump’s most offensive tweets ended up being critical evidence in lawsuits filed against him and his administration. And we should know — we filed over 400 legal actions against him,” said the ACLU’s executive director, Anthony Romero.

Bezos: Disinformation board should investigate Biden tweet --Amazon founder Jeff Bezos criticized President Biden for a tweet the president wrote suggesting that taxing wealthier corporations could help bring down inflation, calling lumping the two topics together a “misdirection.” “You want to bring down inflation? Let’s make sure the wealthiest corporations pay their fair share,” Biden tweeted on Friday evening. “The newly created Disinformation Board should review this tweet, or maybe they need to form a new Non Sequitur Board instead. Raising corp taxes is fine to discuss. Taming inflation is critical to discuss. Mushing them together is just misdirection,” Bezos shot back, quote-tweeting Biden’s statement on the platform. Since the announcement of the Department of Homeland Security’s Disinformation Governance Board last month, the new board has drawn the ire from a number of Republicans who have called it the “Ministry of Truth” and alleged it would censor free speech. Bezos’s remarks come as inflation in the United States reached a 40-year high amid labor shortages and supply chain issues, the latest of which has plagued the baby formula industry. Amazon has also repeatedly come under criticism from Democrats for not paying more in taxes. Biden previously criticized the company in March of last year, saying it and other companies had paid zero in income taxes. CNBC reported that Amazon paid $162 million in federal taxes in 2019 but previously had not owed taxes to the federal government since 2016. Amazon’s bill jumped to $1.8 billion in federal taxes in 2020, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal, a figure that would likely grow higher under a Biden plan to set a minimum tax rate for corporations.

Hawley introducing measure to strip Disney of copyright protections - Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) introduced legislation on Tuesday that would strip “woke corporations like Disney” of special protections enabling companies to hold copyright material for decades. The Copyright Clause Restoration Act would limit copyrighted material to 56 years and apply the new rule retroactively, meaning Disney and other companies could immediately lose some copyright protections if the law were passed. The measure is the latest Republican attack on Disney, which last month was stripped of its self-governing status at its amusement park in Orlando, Fla., after Gov. Ron DeSantis took issue with the media company for speaking out against the state’s “Don’t Say Gay” law, which prohibits the discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity from kindergarten through third grade. Hawley’s bill goes after Disney’s long-running list of iconic characters stretching from Mickey Mouse to Marvel superheroes. Hawley said in a press release that “the age of Republican handouts to Big Business is over.” “Thanks to special copyright protections from Congress, woke corporations like Disney have earned billions while increasingly pandering to woke activists,” Hawley said in a statement. “It’s time to take away Disney’s special privileges and open up a new era of creativity and innovation.” The Hill has reached out to Disney for comment.

Disney Hasn’t Found Itself in This Much Trouble Since 1941 - -The family-friendly, controversy-averse Walt Disney Co. has walked into the buzz saw of the American culture wars, version 2022.In April, officials at Disney objected to a Florida law prohibiting instruction in sexual orientation and gender identity in kindergarten through third grade. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis responded by signing a bill revoking Disney’s self-governing status, a unique arrangement in which the company operated like an independent fiefdom within the state.Traditionally, the custodians of one of Hollywood’s most reliable cash machines have been careful to sidestep political minefields that might remind customers of a realm outside the Magic Kingdom. Better to wallow with Scrooge McDuck in the Money Bin than be caught in the crosshairs of Fox News chyrons.Only once before has the Disney brand gotten so entangled in a public relations briar patch – in 1941, when the original iteration of the company was confronted by an internal revolt that pitted the founding visionary against his pen-and-ink scriveners.The characters in the showdown were as colorful as any drawn on the studio’s animation cels: union activists, gangsters, communists and anti-communists, and, not least, Walt Disney himself, who, dropping his avuncular persona, played a long game of political hardball and slow-burn payback.Even then, Walt Disney inspired a special kind of awe around Hollywood.Billy Wilkerson, editor of The Hollywood Reporter, declared Disney “the only real genius in this business” in the Dec. 17, 1937, issue of the periodical. Disney was hailed as the father of the first sound cartoon, “Steamboat Willie” (1928); the first Technicolor cartoon, “Flowers and Trees” (1932); and the first feature-length cartoon, “Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs” (1937). “Snow White” marked the beginning of the extraordinary creative streak – “Pinocchio” and “Fantasia” in 1940, “Dumbo” the following year and 1942’s “Bambi” – on which the Disney mythos would be built forever.In 1940, Disney plowed the profits from “Snow White” into a state-of-the-art animation studio in Burbank, California, where the comfort of his workers, so he said, was a high priority.“One of Walt Disney’s greatest wishes has always been that his employees could work in ideal surroundings,” read an advertisement in the Oct. 10, 1940, issue of The Hollywood Reporter. “The dean of animated cartoons realizes that a happy personnel turns out the best work.”But even by the standards of exploitative Hollywood shop floors, Disney animators were overworked and underpaid. Forced to hunch over a drawing board for 10 hours a day, they had no desire to whistle while they worked. Instead, they wanted a strong union to negotiate on their behalf. Disney didn’t want any of it.The animators opted to be represented by the confrontational Screen Cartoonists Guild rather than the pro-management “company union,” the American Society of Screen Cartoonists.“Disney cartoonists make less than house painters,” charged the guild. “The girls are the lowest paid in the entire cartoon field. They earn from $16 to $20 a week, with very few earning as high as $22.50.” The guild demanded a 40-hour, five-day work week, severance pay, paid vacation and a minimum wage scale ranging from $18 a week for apprentices to $250 for cartoon directors.

Biden and Trump Both Trashed Private Equity’s Favorite Tax Dodge. Surprise! It’s Still Here. If you were to sit down with a focus group and a whiteboard, you would have a hard time coming up with a policy with less populist appeal than the nearly three-decades-old loophole that cuts private equity billionaires’ tax rate almost in half.The carried-interest loophole, Barack Obama said, upset “the balance between work and wealth.” Donald Trump claimed the fund managers who availed themselves of this tax break were “getting away with murder.” Joe Biden, like both of his predecessors, ran for president on a pledge to end it.“People get this really easily—we’re giving a whole lot of rich people more money for no reason other than them being rich,” says Mandla Deskins, advo­cacy manager at Take on Wall Street, an organization pressuring members of Congress to jettison this tax break.On paper, it’s an idea that almost nobody says they want. Polls show the public is overwhelmingly against it. Mitt Romney lost his bid for the presidency in part because of it. Tax experts think it’s unfair. Carried interest has no real constituency outside certain corners of Nantucket. But for a decade and a half, private equity’s favorite tax break, which delivers hundreds of millions of dollars annually to the guys in blue button-downs and matching fleeces who bought your company and laid you off, has been the most unkillable bad idea in a town with no shortage of them, a testament to the unstoppable combination of money and inertia.Well, money mostly.“It’s not necessarily dead,” Deskins says of the most recent effort to close the loophole, “but it is definitely on pause.”“People get this really easily—we’re giving a whole lot of rich people more money for no reason other than them being rich.”The concept of carried interest is quite old, and in the right circumstances, makes a good deal of sense. By the 13th century, Venetian investors were offering seafaring merchants a quarter of the overall profits in exchange for selling their goods in foreign markets. That percentage was the carry—it was a return on what we’d call the merchants’ sweat equity. Private equity firms, which pool money from investors such as pension funds and use it to buy and restructure (euphemism alert!) existing companies, borrowed the concept, but not the risk. They typically take a 2 percent annual cut of the assets they manage as a fee, and then a 20 percent share of the profits when those assets are sold. There’s no sweat equity—the only time private equity titans brave the high seas is on a yacht—but there also isn’t much regular equity, either. The firms’ final take is vastly disproportionate to whatever small sum they might have contributed.

These Are Congress’ Biggest Private Equity Investors Among the 22 members of the House and Senate who reported investing in private equity last year, 10 were Republicans and 12 were Democrats. They ranked among the wealthiest members of Congress, an already elite club composed mostly of millionaires that has done little to get rid of the carried interest loophole, the quirk in federal tax law that allows a certain very select group of people—hedge fund and private equity managers—to collect their pay at a much lower tax rate than many Americans. According to money-in-politics watchdog OpenSecrets, the private equity industry spent $16.5 million lobbying Congress last year; all told, 415 of 435 members of the House and nearly every senator took money from the industry in the runup to the last election—including Congress’ five biggest private equity investors:

• Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) -The Senate’s richest member ($200 million), the former Florida governor made his fortune at the hospital chain Columbia/HCA, which the feds fined $1.7 billion for fraud and overbilling while Scott was CEO. In February, the Scott-chaired National Republican Senatorial Committee released its “11-Point Plan to Rescue America,” a manifesto of the GOP’s grievance politics. In a throwback to Romney’s 2012 campaign, though, Scott called for the roughly 57% of households not earning enough to owe federal income taxes to pay them in the future, “to have skin in the game.”
• Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) The third-richest senator ($94 million), Warner founded venture firm Columbia Capital in 1989. He has opposed closing the carried-interest loophole and said capitalism was “under assault” in “frankly unprecedented” ways. In early 1986, the FCC held a lottery to divvy up the rights to build the nation’s first cellphone networks. Warner, then a young lawyer, proposed that the winners hire him to sell their collective rights as a package. They did, and Warner’s cut of the $20 million deal was some $2 million in today’s money, helping him get his start shortly thereafter with Columbia.
• Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) A former Microsoft exec whose husband recently retired from the tech giant to work at the Department of Veterans Affairs, DelBene is the House’s eighth-wealthiest member ($52 million). DelBene was also one of Congress’ most active stock traders in 2021: She and her husband bought more than $15 million worth of stock and sold nearly $31 million, including Microsoft shares after his retirement.
• Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) Connecticut’s senior senator ($85 million) married into considerable wealth: His father-in-law, Peter Malkin, was the chair of a major Manhattan real estate company and a longtime rival of Donald Trump. In 2002, after PE firm Forstmann Little lost more than $100 million of state pension fund money, then–Connecticut Attorney General Blumenthal sued and recouped $16 million—helping him burnish his hard-charging rep.
• Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) Congress’ PE poster child, the fourth-richest senator (estimated net worth: $85 million) co-founded Bain Capital in 1984. In 2012, Romney’s dismissal of 47% of Americans as free-loaders helped sink his presidential campaign. In a devastating 2012 attack ad paid for by Priorities USA, an Indiana paper-plant worker named Mike Earnest recounts how he was asked by his bosses to build a 30-foot stage—only to later realize that it was for Bain executives to announce to his co-workers that they all were being fired.

Yellen to warn of continued volatility as stocks plummet - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to tell the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday to be ready for continuing market fluctuations after stocks dropped to fresh 52-week lows on renewed fears of inflation and worsening geopolitical conditions. “There is the potential for continued volatility and unevenness of global growth as countries continue to grapple with the pandemic. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has further increased economic uncertainty,” Yellen’s testimony, posted Monday, reads. The Dow Jones Industrial Average of major U.S. companies fell more than 650 points to 32,245, a drop of nearly 2 percent. This was off a high last week of 34,061, spurred by reassurances from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the Fed wouldn’t increase interest rates by more than 50 basis points in its effort to quell rising inflation. The S&P 500 index fell more than 3 percent, to 3,991, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite was down almost 4.3 percent, to 11,623, as tech stocks continued to take a beating. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies dropped more than 4.6 percent on the day. Despite Monday’s sell-off and recent market volatility, Yellen will testify Tuesday that “the U.S. financial system has continued to function in an orderly manner.” That’s an argument that lawmakers may take issue with, as the economic recovery following the onset of the pandemic hasn’t exactly been uniform. While corporations have been reporting record profits during the first fiscal quarter of this year, with some sectors faring far better than they were prior to the pandemic, inflation has surged and the labor market has tightened.

Wall Street extends bruising sell-off as fear of slowdown grips markets - Stocks tumbled to a 13-month low in a widespread sell-off amid concern about the Federal Reserve’s ability to tame inflationary spirals without throwing the economy into a recession. The slide in the S&P 500 topped 3%, while the Treasury curve steepened, with the gap between two- and 30-year rates hitting the widest since mid-March as short-dated bonds led the gains. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 653.67 points, or 1.99%, to 32,245.7, the S&P 500 lost 132.1 points, or 3.20%, to 3,991.24 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 521.41 points, or 4.29%, to 11,623.25. It was the first time since March 31 2021 that the S&P closed below 4,000. Investors are increasingly worried about the limits to Fed policy at a time when supply-chain disruptions pose a significant threat to inflation amid a ravaging war in Ukraine and China’s Covid-19 lockdowns. Data on Monday showed US consumers project prices in three years to be higher compared with a month ago — a troubling sign for officials trying to keep longer-term expectations anchored. Pandemic-era stars bore the brunt of the selling, with Cathie Wood’s flagship exchange-traded fund sinking about 10% and an ETF tracking newly public companies down the most since the onset of the pandemic. Bitcoin slipped below $32,000, falling more than 50% from its all-time high. The rout also spread to energy producers, easily the market’s strongest sector in 2022. The group plunged over 8% as crude slid. Big tech was not spared, with the likes of Tesla, Amazon.com and Nvidia off by at least 5%. The Cboe Volatility Index spiked to its highest in two months.

These Stock Patterns Are Impossible – Without Brazen Manipulation that the SEC Is Choosing to Ignore - by Pam Martens - Beginning on September 17, 2019 – when overnight lending rates on repo (repo means repurchase agreements between financial institutions) touched 10 percent instead of the 2-1/2 percent that the Fed wanted the market to be at – the Fed began providing repo loans at “administered rates.” It did that by jumping into the repo market with both feet, proceeding to make trillions of dollars in cumulative loans to trading houses on Wall Street, at interest rates as low as 0.10 percent by the spring of 2020.During 2020, the Fed also artificially propped up money market mutual funds, commercial paper, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and the corporate bond market with emergency lending facilities it created. The Fed did not need a vote in Congress to create those bailout programs. It needed only the permission of Steve Mnuchin, Donald Trump’s wily U.S. Treasury Secretary. Wall Street On Parade has been witnessing a persistent new pattern in the stock market for several months now where the market plunges at the open and then shortly thereafter, on no major news, it turns on a dime and spikes higher. This suggests one of two things to us: (1) either the New York Fed is manipulating stock trading out of its second office close to the futures markets in Chicago; or (2) big money at Wall Street trading houses and/or hedge funds are doing it. Either way, the SEC and the Justice Department have not nipped this activity in the bud.On January 31, Wall Street On Parade reported that the New York Fed, which is the only one of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks to have a trading floor – complete with those expensive Bloomberg data terminals and speed dials to Wall Street’s biggest trading houses – had decided, after 100 years of operation, that it needed a second trading floor in Chicago where S&P 500 futures are traded along with other futures contracts. (Read our detailed report here with photos.)Take a look at some of these price moves that we have captured below in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since March. Nothing about this is normal. If this is allowed to continue and the SEC does not explain, with credible details, who is behind these moves, what’s left of confidence in U.S. markets is going to evaporate.

Bayer Shares Tumble As White House Urges SCOTUS to Reject Appeal - Shares of Bayer, the German pharmaceutical giant, are tumbling in premarket trading after the Biden Administration asked the Supreme Court to reject the company's appeal of a California lawsuit which found that its Roundup weedkiller causes cancer. Bayer shares tumbled more than 7% on the news, which Citi analysts including Peter Verdult described as a “clearing event", similar to Genmab shares after Darzalex arbitration went against the company in April.Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, who represents the Biden Administration before the high court, said in a court filing that Bayer's appeal should be rejected.Bayer shares on Wednesday plunged 6.3%, a loss of about €3.7 billion euros, or nearly $3.9 billion, in market value, to their lowest in seven weeks as traders bet against the likelihood of the appeal being heard. The company's shares are still up more than 20% this year.According to Reuters, Bayer has argued that the cancer claims over Roundup and its active ingredient glyphosate go against the science, as well as the product clearance from the EPA. The agency has upheld guidance that glyphosate is not carcinogenic and not a risk to public health when used as indicated on the label."In terms of a positive final outcome for Bayer, this decreases the likelihood of the Supreme Court deciding to hear the case and subsequently ruling in its favor," said Jefferies analyst Charlie Bentley.Morgan Stanley analyst Vincent Andrews noted that Bayer shares will likely respond negatively as the market was expecting that the US solicitor general would recommend a review of the case.

Bitcoin dips below $30,000, drops more than 56% from its all-time high - Bitcoin dropped below the $30,000 level late Monday, breaching a symbolic price threshold. At its lowest price point, the world's most popular cryptocurrency was more than 12% lower on the day — and more than 56% off its November all-time high of around $69,000. The last time bitcoin traded below $30,000 was in July 2021, when the digital asset traded as low as $29,839.80. Yuya Hasegawa, a crypto market analyst at Japanese bitcoin exchange Bitbank, previously told CNBC that bitcoin would need to maintain a key psychological price level of $33,000 to stave off further deterioration of technical sentiment. The price drop comes amid a broader, multi-day sell-off that has ensnared much of the crypto market and equities. The crypto market, which trades 24-hours a day, is down nearly 10% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data. Meanwhile, all three major stock indexes closed Monday lower, with the S&P 500 falling to its lowest level in more than a year. Stocks have been on a steady decline since Thursday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite each posted their worst single-day drops since 2020. For the last year, bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have tracked the movement of tech stocks, and some analysts say that this close correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq challenges the argument that the cryptocurrency functions as an inflation hedge.

Charts: “Massive Buyers’ Strike” for Tech; Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge Exposed as a Bad Joke; Megabanks in Freefall -- By Pam and Russ Martens: Last October 6, Bloomberg News had a prominent headline on their digital front page that read: “Citi Says Banks Are In, Tech Is Out Ahead of Rates Lift-Off.”The thrust of the article was this:“In the race to find the best hedges against higher rates and inflation, Citigroup Inc.’s chief global equity strategist is moving with the tide toward global financial stocks.“Like a growing number of his peers, Robert Buckland expects value stocks to provide a degree of protection against the market turbulence brought about by rising bond yields.”There’s a sleight of hand in that phrasing, somehow transporting the riskiest megabanks and their trillions of dollars in opaque derivatives into “value stocks.” A global bank is to a value stock what a loaded grenade is to a box of granola. There is zero correlation. (See our warning about this back on October 6.)If you had followed Buckland’s advice and bought global bank stocks on October 6, this is what your portfolio might look like today:U.S. megabanks have not held up either, with the largest bank in the United States — JPMorgan Chase — which perpetually brags about its “fortress balance sheet,” outpacing the losses at its competitors. The tech wreck, however, has been worse. Yesterday, Jefferies tech analyst Brent Thillappeared on CNBC and shared the misery taking place on the company’s tech trading desk. Thill said:“This has taken on more negativity than we could have imagined. We have no buyers on our desk. There’s max pain and it’s darker than I’ve seen in the last decade in covering many of these names.”A little later in the interview, Thill added this: “I can tell you with high conviction that the biggest names on Wall Street right now are sitting out this and waiting…there’s a massive buyers’ strike right now.”(As the market has continued to melt down, we have been turning on CNBC at lunchtime to keep tabs on what kind of advice is being doled out to the investing public.)The truth is that things are going to get a lot worse for the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which is a market-capitalization weighted index, and where technology stocks represent just over half the Index. As the chart below shows, on a year-to-date basis through yesterday, May 9, the FAANG stocks have taken a beating but more serious pain is highly likely in the cards. That’s because Apple has been performing in lockstep with the S&P 500 rather than with its peer tech stocks. As of yesterday’s close, Apple’s market cap is still $2.46 trillion. (Yes, trillion.) That has helped hide the scale of the real deterioration that has been taking place in the Nasdaq. (See our report of December 28, 2021: A Tale of Two Markets: S&P 500 Notches Its 69th Record Close as the Bottom Falls Out of the Nasdaq.) The wheels are also coming off the nutty myth that Bitcoin would function as an inflation hedge. Instead, it’s functioning just as Warren Buffet suggested: as “rat poison squared.” From a high of $69,355 last November, Bitcoin futures closed yesterday at $30,930, a decline of 55 percent.

Senator Tells Treasury Secretary Yellen that Crypto Market Is Now Larger than Subprime Market that Triggered Global Financial Crisis -By Pam Martens Yesterday, the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to take testimony from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s annual report to Congress and what F-SOC sees as the biggest threats right now to financial stability.There were numerous fireworks during the hearing, including when Senator Tim Scott, a Black Republican Senator from South Carolina, grilled Yellen on her abortion position, asking: “Did you say that ending the life of a child is good for the labor force participation rate.” Yellen calmy responded with this:“Roe v. Wade and access to reproductive health care, including abortion, helped lead to increased labor force participation. It enabled many women to finish school. That increased their earning potential. It allowed women to plan and balance their families and careers.” Yellen added that research indicates that “denying women access to abortion increased their odds of living in poverty or need for public assistance.” Another notable moment in the hearing came when Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat from Nevada, posed her question to Yellen as follows:“Last week Fabio Panetta, one of the European Central Bank’s six Executive Board Members, noted that the crypto currency market is now larger than the subprime mortgage market which triggered the global financial crisis. Nobody knows that better than us in the state of Nevada. “And he says this $1.3 trillion [crypto] market shows strikingly similar dynamics. There are about 10,000 crypto assets now. So my question Madam Secretary is: one financial risk posed by the crypto currency is the concentration of ownership. Do you see any financial risk because professional investors and high net worth individuals hold almost two-thirds of the Bitcoin supply?” Yellen said there could be financial stability risks if those professional investors were leveraged to the point “that a decline in the value of the assets could trigger financial distress which spills over to others.” Yellen said that President Biden has asked the U.S. Treasury and F-SOC to look at the risks presented by crypto and they will be issuing a “comprehensive report” on this shortly.Yellen also said that the President’s Working Group has already issued a report on stablecoins which indicated that there could be a risk of a run on stablecoins which could threaten financial stability. That run is clearly already happening. This morning, CNBC reported this:“UST, a so-called stablecoin that’s meant to maintain a 1:1 peg with the U.S. dollar, plunged to as low as 31 cents Wednesday. It was last trading at less than 50 cents, according to CoinGecko data.”As we reported yesterday, as of Monday’s closing price of $30,930, Bitcoin futures have plunged 55 percent from their high of $69,355 last November. And that $1.4 trillion market cap for crypto that European Central Banker Fabio Panetta spoke about last week was a $2.9 trillion market cap last November, and a $2.2 trillion market cap as recently as April 2. It’s melting as fast as a snow cone in July. The most amazing aspect of this hearing is that the one word that encapsulates the greatest and most imminent threat to the stability of the United States’ financial system was not uttered once from the mouth of any Senator from either party. That word is derivatives. Yellen used the word just once and then only in relation to the transition away from the interest rate benchmark Libor. What was not questioned at all by Senators on the Banking Committee that oversees the Wall Street megabanks was the $234 trillion in notional (face amount) derivatives sitting on the books of these megabanks that are being called out every quarter in the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s Report on Bank Trading and Derivative Activities. Table 14 of this report (see page 19) indicates that just five bank holding companies are responsible for $200.18 trillion of that exposure or 86 percent of the total. If one wants to talk about “concentrated” risk, why not talk about $200 trillion of risk in derivatives in addition to $1.4 trillion of risk in crypto?

Yellen says stablecoins aren’t a financial stability risk — yet — Despite the recent turmoil in crypto markets, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that stablecoins don’t yet present a systemic financial risk, but cautioned that they’re a fast-growing asset class that could become more important to the financial system. “I wouldn’t characterize it at this scale as a real threat to financial stability, but they’re growing very rapidly and they present the same kind of risks we have known for centuries in connection to bank runs,” she said. She declined to give a “numerical cutoff” at which point stablecoins would become a systemic risk.

Mothers, Lock Up Your Sons So They Don’t Practice “Yield Farming” in Crypto - - Lambert Strether -- Here I will focus on demystifying one simple form of fraud in crypto: “Yield farming.” After a short build-up, I’m going to quote extensively from an interview on Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway’s really fun podcast, Odd Lots. Notably, when publishing the transcript, Bloomberg had the same problem writing a headline of sufficient aghastitude as I did: “Sam Bankman-Fried Described Yield Farming and Left Matt Levine Stunned.” Bloomberg normally doesn’t write clickbait headlines like this (“Sophie Turner Revealed the Hilarious Reason She Passed on Kendall Jenner’s Met Gala Party Invite” with deck: “relatable”), so I assume they wrote what they did out of sheer desperation. Fortunately, I was lucky enough to have Mothers’ Day as a hook.By way of introduction, let me deploy a couple of handwaving definitions of “yield farming” from the “Decentralized Finance” (defi) world (you don’t need to worry about abbreviations like “defi,” basically for the same reason that you don’t need to know what’s actually on the menu at “Mom’s”). From Blockworks:Yield farming is the process of using decentralized finance (DeFi) to maximize returns. Users lend or borrow crypto on a DeFi platform and earn cryptocurrency in return for their services.Yield farmers generally use decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to lend, borrow or stake coins to earn interest and speculate on price swings. Yield farming across DeFi is facilitated by smart contracts — pieces of code that automate financial agreements between two or more parties.There’s a lot of jargon here which, again, you can instantly forget, except maybe “smart contracts,” for which you can imagine using your bank account to make purchases on the Internet of Things. (And don’t @ me on the jargon. The complexity is obfuscation, pure and simple.)Here’s another one, from Binance Academy:Yield farming is a way to make more crypto with your crypto. It involves you lending your funds to others through the magic of computer programs called smart contracts. In return for your service, you earn fees in the form of crypto. Simple enough, huh? Well, not so fast.Yield farmers will use very compl icated [uh oh] strategies. They move their cryptos around all the time between different lending marketplaces to maximize their returns. They’ll also be very secretive about the best yield farming strategies. Why? The more people know about a strategy, the less effective it may become. Yield farming is the wild west of Decentralized Finance (DeFi), where farmers compete to get a chance to farm the best crops.And now let’s turn to the Odd Lots interview. Alloway (“Tracy”) and Weisenthal (“Joe”) are the interviewers. Matt Levine (“Matt”) comments. Sam Bankman-Fried (“SBF”), founder and chief executive officer of FTX Cryptocurrency Derivatives Exchange, is an honest-to-gosh crypto squillionaire, so he knows whereof he speaks. Alloway, Levine, and Weisenthal didn’t exactly fall off the turnip truck yesterday. But even they are increasingly aghast (“stunned”) at what Bankman-Fried has to say. Asked for a definition of yield farming:

Cryptocurrency Critic Nouriel Roubini Is Working on Digital Dollar Token - Nouriel Roubini, a blockchain basher who famously called Bitcoin “the mother of all bubbles,” is working to develop a suite of financial products including a tokenized asset intended to act as a “more resilient dollar” in the face of higher inflation, climate change and civil unrest. Roubini, nicknamed “Dr. Doom” for his bearish views, sees room for an asset-backed digital coin that could help protect against higher prices and benefit from soaring demand for land and commodities, as well as a loss of confidence in fiat currencies. He’s working with Dubai-based Atlas Capital Team LP, which he joined two years ago as co-founder and chief economist, to create the new products. In doing so, Roubini is tapping into growing concerns over the pace of inflation as well as speculation about the longer-term outlook for the dollar, with prominent financial voices including Bridgewater Associates LP’s Ray Dalio and Credit Suisse AG strategist Zoltan Pozsar having argued the U.S. currency risks gradually losing its reserve status. The greenback’s lofty position could be in jeopardy as the U.S. “prints too much money and adversaries start de-dollarizing,” Roubini said in an interview. “We recognized that America’s dollar reserve currency could be at risk and are working to create a new instrument that’s effectively a more resilient dollar.”

Insider-trading scourge wooed to be crypto ally in U.S. Senate - Facing a crackdown from regulators in Washington, the crypto industry is turning to New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand for help. At first blush, the Democratic lawmaker, known on Wall Street for efforts to thwart insider trading in the stock market, isn’t an obvious choice to play crypto’s savior on Capitol Hill. But since she announced in March that she was working on legislation to overhaul rules for the market, her star has risen..Industry executives sought to woo Gillibrand during a recent trip to San Francisco as she shuttled between a meeting with them at the St. Regis Hotel and breakfast with venture capitalists. Closer to home, a digital-asset lobbyist is planning a Manhattan fundraiser later this month for her reelection.

U.S. regulators considering Plan B if Congress fails to act on crypto Financial market regulators are considering steps they could take to rein in the crypto market if Congress doesn’t pass legislation, the head of Wall Street’s top derivatives regulator said. “In the absence of clear direction from Congress, which I know they’re working on, it’s our responsibility to work together and to come up with solutions to the extent that we’re able to within the authority that we currently have,” Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam said Monday in an interview with Bloomberg News. Crypto firms have been looking for clarity on the regulations they should follow. Many have pushed for the CFTC to take on an expanded role — an idea backed by a recent bipartisan bill introduced in the House.

 Fintech lender on the hook for millions in fraud from one client's losses --Like many fintechs, Grain Technology promises its bank partners it will stand by its product in the event of fraud, covering any losses when it fails to identify a scammer. Now it's time to pay up.Ponce Financial Group told shareholders this week that it had to take a $6.3 million charge in the first quarter tied to unsecured microloans on its books that were originated on its behalf by Grain. Ponce also added $1.7 million to reserves.The $1.65 billion-asset Ponce, based in the Bronx, New York, held 54,247 microloans with an aggregate balance of $31 million on March 31, according to a related securities filing late last week.

CFPB ramps up enforcement hiring -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is hiring 20 additional enforcement attorneys as the bureau ramps up investigations of repeat offenders and expands its authority over nonbanks and fintechs. Eric Halperin, the CFPB’s enforcement chief, told staff at an all-hands meeting last week that the enforcement team received the go-ahead to add 20 more full-time employees, most of them attorneys. The bureau confirmed the hires were part of its latest budgeting process. The recent hiring comes as the CFPB is building out its capacity for data collection related to fair-lending exams as well as artificial intelligence and machine learning processes.

Crypto companies are turning to Bermuda as U.S. eyes crackdown -As crypto companies face growing scrutiny from policymakers in the U.S., they are increasingly turning to friendlier and less bureaucratic jurisdictions like Bermuda to grow their businesses and test new products. The self-governing British territory was one of the first places to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets — a puzzle that large countries like the US still haven’t solved. The island has the ability to be more nimble because it has a single regulator, compared to the many agencies that have input over crypto oversight in the U.S. crypto-bl-051419.jpg This, plus the fact that the local officials have embraced the industry, has made it an attractive destination for businesses, especially as countries like the U.S. are ramping up enforcement against crypto firms. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is already probing a number of companies for potentially offering unregistered securities and recently announced plans to beef up a team dedicated to policing digital assets. Lawmakers like Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown are also eager to rein in the market.

Senators call for Fincen to accelerate money laundering reforms — A bipartisan group of senators urged the Treasury Department and Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to implement the Corporate Transparency Act more quickly, the latest instance of lawmakers pressing the Biden administration on anti-money laundering reform amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In a letter addressed to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and acting director of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network Himamauli Das, a bipartisan group of lawmakers demanded that the Biden administration provide a timeline for the implementation of the CTA, which was passed in 2020 in an effort to crack down on the use of anonymous shell companies in the U.S. “The Treasury Department has yet to finalize the implementation of the CTA — or even set a timetable for its completion,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter signed by Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., Marco Rubio, R-Fla., Ron Wyden, D-Ore., Bob Menendez, D-N.J., Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Bill Cassidy, R-La.

Regulators omit climate change from updated flood insurance guidance — Federal regulators have released an updated and expanded guidance on flood insurance, concluding a regulatory process that began with the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act in 2012. The nearly 300-page document combines two previous requests for comment — one in 2020 and the other in 2021 — that were issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Farm Credit Administration and the National Credit Union Administration. Notably, the new guidance dodges the question of how climate change should be factored into flood insurance decisions. The document neither gives insurers a “safe harbor” for insurers to decline coverage based on climate change concerns nor explicitly requires insurers to consider climate risks and make flood insurance mandatory in high-risk zones, as urged by one comment received by regulators. Instead, the agencies decided those questions must be settled by the agencies through separate rules.

Fed’s Waller says climate rules are ‘Congress’s job’ --Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said it is not the central bank’s job to factor climate change into its regulatory framework. “When it comes to thinking about regulatory structure and environmental stuff, that's Congress's job,” Waller said Tuesday during an event at the Economic Club of Minnesota. “It's not the job of an unelected official like myself to say, ‘OK, here's this one of 10,000 types of shocks on the planet [that] you have to do special treatment for.’ ” Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller says the market is equipped to underwrite climate risks on its own. Waller waded into the topic during a Q&A event with Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed. An audience member asked what role environmental, social and governance standards, commonly referred to as ESG, might factor into future regulations and reporting requirements.

Citi warns more regulators probing Wall Street’s texting habits Citigroup warned that more regulators are investigating the company over employee use of “unapproved messaging channels.” Citigroup said in a quarterly regulatory filing that it is cooperating with the investigations, which it said were brought by “certain U.S. regulators and authorities.” The firm had previously only said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was conducting an investigation into the matter.

JPMorgan, Goldman are pushed to name clients trading Russia debt -JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs Group are being pressed to hand over extensive information on clients trading Russian debt, as U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Katie Porter expand efforts to pry into whether Wall Street is profiting on the invasion of Ukraine. The Democrats sent JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon and Goldman CEO David Solomon letters Tuesday demanding lists of clients betting on Russian government and corporate debt since the war broke out in February, as well as the types and sizes of wagers and any gains. The lawmakers also want information on the banks themselves, including tallies of any trades they’ve handled and revenue generated. “We are seeking information on how your dealings could benefit Putin’s regime and how your institution may be profiting off of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” the lawmakers wrote to both CEOs.

Aggressive Fed throws wrench into banks' deposit-cost plans --Banks started the year thinking they could hold off on raising the deposit rates they pay to customers, but a more aggressive Federal Reserve is starting to change that calculus. The thesis that deposit costs will stay subdued for a while mostly remains on track — since, with loan-to-deposit ratios near historic lows, banks have little incentive to pay more to retain depositors. But the Fed is raising interest rates rapidly in response to soaring inflation, and those moves have reset expectations about when banks will start feeling pressure on deposit costsThe Fed raised short-term rates by half a percentage point last week, its largest hike since 2000, and signaled it is likely to do so again at its next two meetings. The central bank will also begin slimming down its $9 trillion bond portfolio in June, and will be pulling about $95 billion out of the financial system each month when the reductions reach their full pace.

US banks withdraw from special purpose acquisition companies - Just a few years after banks helped create a gargantuan market for blank-cheque companies, they’re pulling away from the deals due to fear of the risks. Goldman Sachs is ending its involvement with most of the special purpose acquisition companies (Spacs) it took public and pausing new US issuances, Bloomberg reported on Monday. Bank of America scaled back work with some Spacs and could retreat further as it evaluates its policies surrounding the deals, people familiar with the matter said. Their pullback follows an intense boom in the vehicles over the past couple of years, as financiers, politicians and celebrities piled into the deals that list on public stock exchanges to raise money so they can buy other companies. But new guidelines from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have sucked air out of the balloon, which was already rapidly deflating thanks to souring markets, jittery regulators and dwindling returns for the deals. “The SEC continues to spoil an already rather lame Spac party,” said Oliver Scharping, a portfolio manager at Bantleon. “There’s virtually no money to be made with new issuances right now.” The banks’ recent concerns centre on liability risks stemming from the new rules, which are aimed at tightening oversight on a market after it set back-to-back yearly records. The proposals would require Spacs to disclose more information about potential conflicts of interest and make it easier for investors to sue over false projections. In addition, they would require underwriters of a blank-cheque offering to also be underwriters of the Spac’s subsequent purchase of a target firm, known as the de-Spac. That expansion of underwriter liability poses a greater risk for investment banks, prominent law firms have cautioned. And so far, it has put the brakes on for Wall Street’s biggest banks, with others expected to follow. Citigroup paused initial public offerings of new US Spacs until it gets more clarity on the potential legal risks posed by the guidelines, Bloomberg reported in April. Goldman is retreating because of the proposed rules, though it may elect to continue the advisory work with a small number of Spac clients in rare cases. Bank of America, which is also continuing selective work with some deals, has ended its relationships with some Spacs and been in discussions with clients on navigating the current environment, Bloomberg reported. Together, BoA, Citigroup and Goldman accounted for more than 27% of US Spac deals since the start of 2021, overseeing about $47bn of the transactions, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A Spac works with its adviser even after going public to complete its merger with a target firm, known as the de-Spac transaction. If it fails to complete that deal, it’s forced to return capital to investors. The recent retreat is likely to anger clients who had stepped up capital to get their Spacs off the ground and are still seeking takeover targets to complete their mergers. It’s unusual for a bank to withdraw from an active blank-cheque firm because it typically works on the de-Spac as well. The move risks leaving the sponsor of the Spac — its client — in the lurch and unhappy. The sentiment also weighed on shares, with the De-Spac Index, which tracks 25 companies that have gone public through a merger with a Spac, plunging 10.4% on Monday. US-listed special purpose acquisition companies raised $679.3m via initial public offerings in April, 89% less than the monthly average of $5.95bn in the last year, Bloomberg data show.

Q1 Senior Loan Officer Survey: strong demand for loans, but accommodation ends - The Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q1 was published yesterday (May 10), generally covering the supply of, and demand for, bank credit. It has two components that qualify as long leading indicators for the economy, as they have typically turned about one year before the onset of a recession over their 30+ year history.First, the below graph is of the percentage of banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans for large and medium-sized firms (blue) and small firms (red). Since tightening constricts credit, it typically happens in advance of a recession. Thus a positive number in the below graph is a negative for the economy:As you can see, these moved towards absolute neutrality in the first quarter. In fact, the reading as to small firms is exactly 0, while that as to larger firms is -1.5, indicating a very slight tilt towards loosening.Next, below is the percentage of banks reporting increasing demand for loans by larger (blue) and smaller (red) firms. In this case, more demand indicates a desire to build and expand on the part of firms, so a positive reading is also a positive for the economy:Demand remains quite strong for both sized firms.The survey includes a large number of other measures, but these are either too noisy, not very predictive, or of too recent a vintage (10 years or less) to be of much use.The two above series together make for a weak positive. Demand for loans is still quite strong, but standards have stopped moving towards accommodation.Note that the Chicago Financial Indexes measure credit conditions as well, but have the advantage of being reported weekly rather than once every three months. Interestingly, both the adjusted and leverage indexes significantly deteriorated just since the Fed started raising rates over a month ago. Below I include those two measures compared with the percentage of banks tightening standards for large firms (as above) for comparison:

CFPB issues advisory opinion on fair-lending laws — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Monday issued an advisory opinion affirming that the federal prohibition against discrimination in lending applies to all aspects of a credit decision — not just the application process. The CFPB’s advisory opinion provides more formal support for Regulation B, the implementing statute of the landmark Equal Credit Opportunity Act of 1974 that creditors are increasingly challenging in court. The advisory opinion reiterates the CFPB's view that equal credit act applies not only to consumers and businesses applying for credit, but also to those with existing credit arrangements.

Chopra's expansive vision for CFPB authority is facing industry pushback -A dizzying number of policy changes and enforcement actions by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in recent weeks has prompted aggressive pushback from banks and industry executives.Efforts by CFPB Director Rohit Chopra to extract hefty fines and settlements from repeat corporate offenders and to hold individual executives personally liable for wrongdoing has sent ripples through the financial services industry. More companies are disputing the CFPB’s allegations, refusing to pay large fines or admit wrongdoing, and vowing to vigorously defend themselves in court. Chopra also has made several policy changes outside the normal notice-and-comment process that are renewing concerns about regulatory risks and big compliance costs ahead, especially for large firms.

The Smash-and-Grab Economy - After 16 years at the helm of Houdaille Industries, CEO Jerry Saltarelli want­ed out. Since 1941, he’d poured his heart and soul into the company, starting out as a young lawyer and moving up the executive ranks. As CEO, he’d helped the company transform from a manufacturer of bumpers and shock absorbers into a nationwide construction and machine tools conglomerate. With the company on solid footing, he was ready to retire, but there was a problem. Houdaille—cash-rich and with minimal debt—was the kind of company in vogue with the corporate raiders of 1970s Wall Street, and the New York Times declared that a takeover might prove “irresistible.” This would likely lead to restructuring and layoffs—bleeding the company of its value and tossing aside its way of doing business. Saltarelli wanted none of that. All he wanted was a way to sell his stake while keeping Houdaille independent, doing right by his colleagues, and protecting his legacy.As he pondered his predicament, ­Saltarelli got a phone call from an unfamiliar trio of bankers. Jerome Kohlberg Jr., Henry Kravis, and George Roberts, friends from their time engineering deals at Bear Stearns, had started investment bank KKR just two years prior. They presented ­Saltarelli with a plan that they said could check all the CEO’s boxes: a leveraged buyout, or LBO. Saltarelli had to admit he’d never heard the term. KKR arranged a meeting with Houdaille in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, where they explained how an LBO would work. Institutional investors would lend them money based on Houdaille’s healthy cash reserve, enabling KKR and partners to buy up all the company’s shares and take it private. Houdaille would easily pay that debt back in four to five years, they said, thanks to the magic of corporate tax write-offs: Through some clever accounting, they could help Houdaille push off paying almost all corporate income tax for years, savings the company could use to pay off the debt it would incur during the buyout. By the time Houdaille had to pay Uncle Sam, the debt would be under control, and KKR would take the company public again, but at a much higher share price. Thanks to this plan, they could immediately offer Saltarelli and investors around $40 per share, about double what ­Houdaille was trading at. Not only would Saltarelli get his wish, but he’d make a hefty profit. Within a few years, however, the American machine tool business went south, and Houdaille found itself drowning in its debt. Soon, KKR divested seven divisions of the company, eliminating 2,200 jobs. Then it borrowed even more money, put the debt on Houdaille’s tab, and used it to engineer a handsome buyout for the LBO’s initial investors who now wanted out. A year later, KKR sold Houdaille to a British firm, which sold all but one of Houdaille’s remaining divisions back to KKR, which used them to form a new company, IDEX. Houdaille died, yet the investors who’d killed it walked off with millions and called it a success: “All of the Houdaille ‘constituents’…fared well in the LBO,” declared a report commissioned by KKR. Just like that, a new kind of financial monstrosity was born.

Everything Everywhere All at Once: How Private Equity Rules Your World - Where do the biggest private equity firms get their money for leveraged buyouts? If you’re a public worker, it might be your pension fund. Altogether, these funds hold about $480 billion in private equity investments, even thoughone study found that PE performed about as well as stock market index funds over the last 15 years—but with far higher fees.From Burger King to Qdoba, the fast-food sector is being gobbled up by PE firms, including Roark Capital, which is named after an Ayn Rand character and whose portfolio includes Dunkin’, Arby’s, Jimmy John’s, and many more. The Atlanta-based firm employs nearly 1 million food service workers—among the most likely of workers to need food stamps.After a 2011 leveraged buyout, private equity firms TPG and Leonard Green saddled J. Crew with $1.7 billion in debt and used a financial engineering strategy dubbed the “J. Crew Trapdoor” to shield assets from creditors before it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2020. Other PE acquisitions of major retailers, such as Toys“R”Us and Payless ShoeSource, have also resulted in bankruptcies.Oil guys and spoiled scions are the sports owners of the past. These days, it’s private equity–backed ventures such as the Fenway Sports Group, which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox, hockey’s Pittsburgh Penguins, and English soccer’s Liverpool FC. CVC Capital Partners took a $2.2 billion stake in Spain’s cash-strapped La Liga last year, and many soccer fans fear that this sort of financialization will fuel more tradition-busting ventures, like last year’s aborted European “Super League.”In most of the US, dentists are required to own their practices. Yet private equity has found a way around this, buying up 27 of the top 30 dental support organizations—companies that handle a practice’s business side. In 2013, the Senate investigated, focusing on a DSO, owned partially by Carlyle, that had taken over Small Smiles. The chain, which serves primarily low-income children, paid employees based on how many expensive (and often unnecessary) procedures they convinced kids and parents to get.

 Foreclosures rise as pandemic relief expires --Foreclosures ticked up in the first quarter as pandemic-related consumer protections expired and lenders increasingly took steps to repossess homes. Roughly 24,000 people had new foreclosures listed on their credit reports in the quarter, up from about 9,000 in the fourth quarter, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report released Tuesday. Foreclosures are still about a third of what they were before the pandemic ⁠— and far below the astronomical levels after the mortgage meltdown of more than a decade ago. But the uptick reflects a return to more normal conditions after a federal moratorium effectively prohibited foreclosures on many homeowners for much of the pandemic.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 6, 2022.... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 72 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“The increase in mortgage applications last week was driven by a strong gain in application activity for conventional and government purchase loans, even as mortgage rates rose to their highest level – 5.53 percent – since 2009. Despite a slow start to this year’s spring home buying season, prospective buyers are showing some resiliency to higher rates. Purchase activity has now increased for two straight weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “More borrowers continue to utilize ARMs to combat higher rates. The share of ARMs increased to 11 percent of overall loans and to 19 percent by dollar volume.”Added Kan, “The rapid rise in mortgages rates continues to hit the refinance market, with activity 70 percent below a year ago. Most homeowners refinanced to lower rates in the past two years.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.53 percent from 5.36 percent, with points increasing to 0.73 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loansThe first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates Hit 5.64%, 10-Year Treasury Yield 3.12%, Long-Term Treasury Bond Fund Gets Massacred --By Wolf Richter -The price of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF [TLT], which tracks an index of Treasury securities with long maturities, dropped another 1.5% on Friday, after having dropped 2.7% on Thursday. It has plunged 21% year-to-date and 33.7% from the peak in August 2020. In return for this plunge in price, investors get a yield that has risen to 3.0%.August 2020 marked the peak of the greatest bond-market bubble in US history. It was when the 10-year Treasury yield hit historic lows while our favorite hype mongers predicted that it would drop below zero and become negative. But this bond bubble is blowing up. And this is what the “bond massacre” looks like for investors who’d thought they’d invested in a conservative instrument, when in fact they’d bought a high-risk bet on the continuance of the bond bubble, a bet on long-term interest rates going negative. And WHOOSH went their money:Mortgage rates are shooting higher relentlessly. The daily measure of the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by Mortgage News Daily reached 5.64% on Friday, the highest in the data going back to 2009.The weekly measure by Freddy Mac of the average weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which lags behind a little, spiked to 5.27% the highest since June 2009.Home prices have spiked and mortgage rates have spiked on top of it by over two percentage points and more. How much difference does it make in terms of the monthly payment?In 2021, a home bought at the national median price at the time of $326,300, with 10% down, and financed at the average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate at the time of 3.09%, came with a monthly payment of $1,251.In 2022, a home bought at the median price of $375,300, with 10% down, and financed at 5.27% came with a monthly payment of $1,869.In other words, the mortgage payment jumped by nearly 50%, and related expenses of property taxes and insurance also increased. This 50% jump in cost of homeownership at the current price is going to wipe out demand from big layers of potential buyers. Most people, when they apply for a mortgage, get a rate that is guaranteed for a certain period of time, such as three months. Many current buyers still have rate locks that were obtained in prior months, and they’re not fully feeling the spike in mortgage rates. But people who get their mortgages today are feeling it.

Mortgage Rates Move Lower -- From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Rates Are Actually Lower Today (And This Week) Rates are actually lower today and significantly lower than last week. In fact, as long as they're still ending the business week on Fridays, this week's rates are significantly lower, with the average lender offering conventional 30yr fixed rates about a quarter of a point below those seen on Friday afternoon.You'd have to go all the way back to April 27th to see anything as low....The average lender is now quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates in the at 5.375% or lower for top tier scenarios. This is down from 5.625% at the recent highs just a few days ago.This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30-year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) since the beginning of 2021. The 30-year fixed rate for top tier scenarios was 5.35% today, down from the recent high of 5.64%.

Housing Market: Where it's at. Where it's going. May 2022 Update - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Market: Where it's at. Where it's going. -- A brief excerpt: House prices are up 20% year-over-year. Inventory is near record lows. And real estate agents are still selling homes well above list price. And on credit, lending standards have beenreasonably solid, and mortgage delinquencies are very low.However, mortgage rates are up sharply (from 3% six months ago to 5.64% today), and we are starting to see an increase in inventory levels. House prices are too high based on fundamentals like price-to-income and price-to-rent. And some investors appear to be pulling back due to higher cap rates, and some builders are reporting buyers actually want to negotiate on price!..On mortgage rates, it is the change in monthly payments that impacts housing. Monthly payments include principal, interest, taxes, insurance (PITI), and sometimes HOA fees (Homeowners Association). We could also include maintenance, utilities and other costs. The following graph shows the year-over-year change in principal & interest (P&I) assuming a fixed loan amount since 1977. Currently P&I is up about 35% year-over-year for a fixed amount (this doesn’t take into account the change in house prices).The last time we saw an increase like this in monthly payments was in the ‘78 to’82 period. This is one reason I’ve been suggesting Housing: Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, Look instead at the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons.There is much more in the article.

 Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year; First Year-over-year Increase Since 2019 - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year Excerpt: Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released this morning from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending May 7, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. Active inventory grew for the first time since 2019. While the size of the improvement rounded to 0%, this week’s data [marks] the first time that inventory figures weren’t lower than the previous year since June 2019. Our April Housing Trends Report showed that the active listings count remained 60 percent below its level right at the onset of the pandemic. This means that for every 5 homes available for sale in the earlier period, today there are just 2. In other words, homes for sale are still limited. However, the switch to growth after nearly 3 years of decline is a step in the right direction, even though inventory continues to lag pre-pandemic normal. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Note: I corrected a sign error in the data for Feb 26, 2022.Note the rapid increase in the YoY change, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to unchanged YoY now. It will be important to watch if that trend continues.The previous week, inventory was down 3.4% YoY according to Realtor.com. That is close to the1.6% decline that Altos reported for the similar period. I expect Altos to report a year-over-year increase in inventory on Monday.There is much more in the article.

Homebuilder Comments in April: “Demand is slowing", "Investors pulling back" -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Homebuilder Comments in April: “Demand is slowing", "Investors pulling back"A brief excerpt: Read these comments. These are clear signs of a slowdown.
Some homebuilder comments courtesy of Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a must follow for housing on twitter!):...
#Dallas builder: “Interest lists are shrinking or buyers are truly pausing.”...
#SanAntonio builder: “Traffic has been cut in half since the hike in rates.”
#Raleigh builder: “Investor activity has slowed dramatically.”..
Allentown builder: “Double hit of higher home prices and higher mortgage interest rates clearly has reduced the number of qualified buyers. Our waiting list is almost zero as of April 30th.”
#Philadelphia builder: “Between higher interest rates and higher sales prices, along with high gas prices and a volatile stock market, we’re seeing a pullback in our sales.”
#Tampa builder: “We’ve seen a significant shift in buyer behavior in the last 30 days. Florida was on fire and pricing has really come to a high point, and people are not willing to pay the prices anymore.”
#Indianapolis builder: “Traffic has significantly declined and people have paused on moving forward with purchases.”
There is much more in the article.

 Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Rises in April" - From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Rises in April The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) moved 6% higher in April to 164.8 (2000=100), up from the revised March reading of 155.0. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In April, the commercial component of the Momentum Index rose 9%, while the institutional component moved 2% higher. With the gain in April, the Dodge Momentum Index was just 5% shy of the all-time high set in the fall of 2021. The main impetus behind this trend is the commercial sector, which has been driven by a growing number of data center, warehouse and hotel projects entering the planning queue. The institutional component has made moderate improvements as well, as more education, healthcare and recreation projects begin the planning process. On a year-over-year basis, the Momentum Index was 17% higher than in April 2021. The commercial component was 15% higher, while the institutional component was 22% higher than a year ago.This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 164.8 in April, up from 155.0 in March.According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggested a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a solid pickup this year and into 2023.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 6.1% Compared to Same Week in 2019: From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Declines in First Week of May -U.S. hotel occupancy declined from the previous week, while average daily rate (ADR) increased slightly, according to STR‘s latest data through May 7.
May 1-7, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 63.9% (-6.1%)
• verage daily rate (ADR): $147.24 (+12.0%)
• evenue per available room (RevPAR): $94.10 (+5.1%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

NY Fed Q1 Report: Total Household Debt Increases to $15.8 trillion - From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Increases in Q1 2022, Driven by Mortgage and Auto BalancesThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued itsQuarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows a solid increase in total household debt in the first quarter of 2022, increasing by $266 billion (1.7%) to $15.84 trillion. Balances now stand $1.7 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.Mortgage balances rose by $250 billion in the first quarter of 2022 and stood at $11.18 trillion at the end of March. In line with seasonal trends typically seen at the start of the year, credit card balances declined by $15 billion. Credit card balances are still $71 billion higher than Q1 2021 and represent a substantial year-over-year increase. Auto loan balances increased by $11 billion in the first quarter, while student loan balances increased by $14 billion and now stand at $1.59 trillion. In total, non-housing balances grew by $17 billion.Mortgage and auto loan originations both declined in the first quarter, after historically high volumes in 2021. Mortgage originations were at $859 billion, representing a decline from the high volumes seen during 2021, yet still $197 billion higher than in Q1 2020, right before the pandemic hit the United States. The volume of newly originated auto loans was $177 billion during the first quarter, primarily reflecting an increase in auto prices. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $64 billion and now stand at $4.12 trillion–$224 billion above the pre-pandemic level.Here are three graphs from the report:The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q1. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a huge decline in debt during the pandemic.From the NY Fed:Aggregate household debt balances increased by $266 billion in the first quarter of 2022, a 1.7% rise from 2021Q4. Balances now stand at $15.84 trillion, $1.7 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, just before the Covid pandemic. The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.The overall delinquency rate was unchanged in Q1. From the NY Fed:Delinquency rates have been low in part due to forbearances (provided by both the CARES Act and voluntarily offered by lenders), which protect borrowers’ credit records from the reporting of skipped or deferred payments. Although these forbearances have ended for most types of debts, the pause on student loan payments remains in place. As of late March, 2.7% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a 2.0 percentage point decrease from the fourth quarter of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States.There is much more in the report.

BLS: CPI increased 0.3% in April; Core CPI increased 0.6% --From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.2 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the >all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the indexes for shelter, food, airline fares, and new vehicles were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index rose 0.9 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 1.0 percent. The energy index declined in April after rising in recent months. The index for gasoline fell 6.1 percent over the month, offsetting increases in the indexes for natural gas and electricity. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in April following a 0.3-percent advance in March. Along with indexes for shelter, airline fares, and new vehicles, the indexes for medical care, recreation, and household furnishings and operations all increased in April. The indexes for apparel, communication, and used cars and trucks all declined over the month. The all items index increased 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending April, a smaller increase than the 8.5-percent figure for the period ending in March. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.2 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index rose 30.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 9.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1981.The consensus was for 0.2% increase in CPI (up 8.1% YoY), and a 0.4% increase in core CPI (up 6.1% YoY). Both were above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Consumer Price Index: April Headline at 8.26%, Down from March - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.26%, down from 8.54% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.16%, down from 6.47% the previous month.Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.2 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the indexes for shelter, food, airline fares, and new vehicles were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index rose 0.9 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 1.0 percent. The energy index declined in April after rising in recent months. The index for gasoline fell 6.1 percent over the month, offsetting increases in the indexes for natural gas and electricity.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in April following a 0.3-percent advance in March. Along with indexes for shelter, airline fares, and new vehicles, the indexes for medical care, recreation, and household furnishings and operations all increased in April. The indexes for apparel, communication, and used cars and trucks all declined over the month. The all items index increased 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending April, a smaller increase than the 8.5-percent figure for the period ending in March.The all items less food and energy index rose 6.2 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index rose 30.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 9.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1981. Read moreInvesting.com was looking for a 0.2% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.4% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 8.1% for Headline and 6.0% for Core.The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

Record Airfares And Soaring Food Prices: What's Behind Today's Surprise CPI Beat - Now that we've had the time to digest it, here is what we learned this morning. The BLS reported that headline CPI prices eased down to a 0.3% (0.33% unrounded) M/M clip from a blowout 1.2% print last month, though this was higher than expectations for a 0.2% gain. Energy prices slid 2.7% M/M as a pullback in retail gasoline prices led to a 5.4% drop in energy commodities, which was partially offset by a 1.3% increase in energy services (look for energy prices to jump again in May, now that gasoline is back to all time highs). Looking at the other notable components, food stayed hot as food at home climbed 1.0% mom and food away from home rose 0.6% mom. Coupled with negative base effects, Y/Y headline CPI slowed to 8.3% from 8.5% in March, with the latter month likely reflecting the peak in inflation even if the annual print was stronger than the 8.1% expected. Core CPI was an even stronger beat, rising 0.6% (0.57% unrounded) mom versus consensus at 0.4%. This led to the Y/Y rate dropping to 6.2% from 6.5%, reflecting the aforementioned unfavorable base effects. A remarkable statistic from Brean Economics shows just how widespread the inflation was: "Of the 95 CPI components we can track back to 1998 (which cover 98% of the CPI) 63% show year-over-year price gains of 6% or more in April, which is the highest share on record." One of the main drivers of the upside surprise was a record 18.6% increase in airline fares, which added 13bp to core CPI alone and reflects a boost from reopening pressures. This contributed to a broader transportation services increase of 3.1% mom, with car truck rental and motor vehicle insurance prices also both rising 0.8% mom. Adding to the reopening theme, lodging gained 1.7% mom. Even outside of the reopening-related categories, there were notable broad based gains across services amid tight labor markets and accelerating wages. OER rose 0.45% mom and rent of primary residence accelerated to 0.56% mom. Medical care and other personal services both gained 0.5% mom, and recreation was up 0.4% mom. Water/sewer/trash and education/communication services both rebounded from negative readings in March to 0.3% mom and 0.2%, respectively. Core goods was more mixed. On one hand, new cars rose 1.1%—the new methodology discussed earlier likely contributing to a stronger reading this month — household furnishings/supplies and recreation goods both rose 0.5%, alcohol was up 0.4% mom, other goods rose 0.3% mom, and medical goods edged up 0.1% mom. On the other hand, education/communication collapsed 2.6% mom, apparel slid 0.8% mom, and used cars fell 0.4% mom. There have been mixed signs of progress on supply chains in the US, which can help explain the more mixed readings across goods. Looking ahead, Bank of America notes that the Russia/Ukraine conflict and China lockdowns remains risks to commodity prices and global supply chain conditions, which could lead to further choppiness. Overall, expect strong - if declining - core goods inflation through this year, around 5% by year-end. Overall, this was a noisy report given the move in airline fares, so some of the strength should be faded. That said, underlying inflation pressures remain elevated—and BofA recommends keeping an eye out on trimmed-mean/median later this morning—which should leave the Fed comfortable maintaining their front-loaded rate hiking path. The risks of a 75bps rate hike are low given the noise, but this report adds to the debate on the margin. Finally, here is the visual breakdown of CPI on a monthly basis...

Inflation in Services, Housing, Food, New Vehicles Goes WHOOSH as Dollar’s Purchasing Power Goes to Heck - The headline measure of the drop in purchasing power of the dollar, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), released today, confirmed that inflation is spreading deeper into the economy and is tearing into services. As some product categories lost some of the inflation oomph, such as used vehicles and gasoline, others picked up oomph, such as housing, food, new vehicles, and air fares. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) spiked by 8.3% in April compared to a year ago, the second worst since 1981, slightly less red-hot then the 8.5% spike in March, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. On a month-to-month basis, CPI jumped by 0.3%. The year-over-year reading of CPI is never a smooth line, but zigzags up and down, as you can see in the chart above, because the year-over-year reading depends on two factors: The base figure last year, which creates the “base effect,” and the current figure. The index itself, not the year-over-year change in the index, is not subject the base effect, and is shows where this horror show is going and its cumulative effects: For most people, actual inflation is a lot worse because CPI lags in picking up housing inflation, as we’ll see in a moment, and because CPI is skewed to the big spenders, meaning higher-income households. As Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard pointed out earlier this year, lower income households face inflation that is much higher than CPI, and they feel it much more because they spend most of their income on necessities, where price increases have been particularly harsh. CPI inflation tracks the loss of the purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar, including the purchasing power of labor. It’s not a sign of growth or wealth or anything. In April, the purchasing power of $100 in January 2000 dropped to $58.39, and this is why these kinds of price increases ruin the mood of American consumers: The CPI for services spiked by 0.8% in April from March, sharply accelerating in recent months. This pushed the year-over-year increase to 5.4%, the worst since 1991. This includes housing costs, which we’ll get there in a moment, plus other items, such as:

• Health insurance: +10.4%
• Airline fares: +33%
• Lodging in hotels, motels: +22.6%
• Car and truck rental: +10.4%
• Delivery services: +13.9%
• Laundry and dry-cleaning services: +10.3%

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.5% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in April -- The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in April. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Used Cars" were down slightly annualized in April, and this will likely show further declines in coming months. Motor fuel was down 51% annualized in April after increasing sharply in March Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up around 5% to 6% annualized in April. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 5.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 6.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 6.2%. Core PCE is for March and increased 5.2% year-over-year.

Real wages unchanged, real aggregate payrolls rose slightly in April - Consumer inflation for April was +0.3%, the lowest monthly advance since last August. The number was helped by a big decline in energy prices, down -2.7% for the month, and also by used cars, down -0.4% for the month. In this post I’ll report on the impact on wages. I’ll put up a separate post with more general comments later. Since nominal nonsupervisory wages rose 0.4% in March,“real” wages rose less than 0.1% (rounded to 0.0%) in April: On a YoY basis, real wages are still down -1.7%, slightly above March’s -1.8% reading: This remains a terrible number historically. Under ordinary circumstances, this would absolutely be recessionary. But these are not ordinary circumstances, as inflation was goosed in part by stimulus payments last spring. This will be a more “normal” comparison in a couple of months, as a comparison with the stimulus months fades. The better measures is real aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers, i.e., the total of payrolls for the entire country, normalized for inflation. These are up 2.7% YoY, a slight increase from last month: Real aggregate payrolls turning negative YoY is frequently something that happens shortly before recessions (and likely is a causative agent), although there are some false positives. A closer look, however, shows that real aggregate payrolls are only up +0.5% in the past 6 months, and flat for the last 3 months: In other words, unless wage increases actually accelerate from here (unlikely), we really need inflation to stay down for the rest of this year. Otherwise, consumer spending (70% of the economy) is going to flag and likely contribute to an economic downturn. Not to mention being a bad thing for working families.

Gas Prices Hit Record With Driving Season Looming -Retail gasoline and diesel prices rallied to a record just ahead of the nation’s summer driving season, a challenge for President Joe Biden and the Federal Reserve as they face the fastest inflation in decades. Average gasoline prices hit $4.374 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association. Diesel also hit a record at $5.55 a gallon. The surge is set to add to inflationary pressures gripping the world’s biggest economy. The U.S. summer driving season starts in about three weeks. Fuel prices have surged as efforts to isolate Russia, one of Europe’s most important energy suppliers, upend international markets. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners have stepped in to fill the global void, maximizing diesel production and sending a record amount of exports. U.S. gasoline inventories stand at the lowest for this time of year since 2019 and diesel stocks are touching levels not seen since 2008. Fuel consumption is being monitored closely, with Americans expected to drive more this summer than in 2021 even as pricier gasoline limits some travel. The nation’s motorists are expected to use 9.2 million barrels of gasoline a day from April to September, up by 0.8% from the same period last year, the Energy Information Administration’s summer outlook showed last month. U.S. gasoline demand is approaching what it was before the pandemic but now the nation is contending with more than 1 million barrels a day of lost fuel-making capacity because of the refineries that were forced to close during the pandemic. Still, high prices likely won’t stop people from getting on the road, said Devin Gladden, a spokesperson for AAA. “This summer on the heels of two years of pandemic where Americans have been unable to take vacations, people will want to engage in those activities that they haven’t been able to,”

USA Gasoline Price Hits New Record - The average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. hit a new record of $4.37 per gallon on Tuesday, according to the AAA gas prices website. The site’s previous highest recorded average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.33 per gallon, which was seen on March 11. Yesterday’s average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. came in at $4.32 per gallon, the week ago average came in at $4.20 per gallon, and the month ago average came in at $4.11 per gallon, the AAA website outlined. The year ago average is shown to have been $2.96 per gallon. “The price of oil is the main driver behind this price increase,” AAA Federal Affairs Manager Devin Gladden told Rigzone, commenting on the new price record. “Crude prices started spiking last week after the European Union announced its proposal to ban Russian oil imports,” Gladden added in the statement. According to the AAA site, California has the highest average price of regular gasoline in the country as of May 10, coming in at $5.84 per gallon. The highest recorded average price for regular gasoline in the state is $5.91 per gallon, which was reported on March 29. A White House statement released on May 10 outlined that the Biden administration was “addressing Putin’s price hike at the pump” through a range of actions. These included releasing one million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months, rallying allies to release an additional 60 million barrels of oil from other countries’ reserves, allowing E15 gasoline to be sold this summer, and calling on Congress to make companies pay fees on idled wells and non-producing acres on Federal lands.

USA Gas Prices Surge to Decade Highs - U.S. natural gas prices have “rocketed” higher since mid-March, rising over $4 per MMBtu to $8.80 per MMBtu at the prompt, a new BofA Global Research report has highlighted. The report, which pointed out that this was the highest level since 2008, noted that the rally extended to the back of the curve as well with Cal 2024 up almost $1 per MMBtu at the same time. “After momentarily flipping into a storage surplus in late December, a colder back half of winter pushed storage back into a deficit of over 300 billion cubic feet, the largest in three years,” the BofA Global Research report stated. “While not near as severe as the one trillion cubic feet storage deficit seen in 2014, the market pushed prices to decade highs on fears that an increasingly inelastic supply/demand balance could lead to a gas shortage this winter, elevating risk premium across the curve,” the report added. The Bofa Global Research report noted that production’s sluggish start to the year has played a major role in the Henry Hub rally “given its outsized impact on end of season inventory levels”. “After staging a bit of a comeback in April, production was derailed again over the last two weeks as severe winter storms impacted nearly two billion cubic feet per day of Rockies and Bakken gas production,” the report said. “Since the production outage started on April 24, the prompt contract has jumped $2 per MMBtu in just eight sessions,” the report added. According to the report, output fell to 93.8 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter of the year from 96 billion cubic feet per day in December. In the report, Bofa Global Research highlighted that it had raised its balance of the year Henry Hub forecast to $7 per MMBtu (2022 Q2-Q4 average) and boosted Cal 2023 to $4.50 per MMBtu, adding that it remained below current forwards. “We still believe there is some price elasticity left in the market as we expect production to grow four billion cubic feet per day year over year, ending the year above 99 billion cubic feet per day and ramping up further in 2023,” the report stated. “That said, we expect volatility to reign supreme this summer as traditional balancing levers have become less effective,” the report added. In a previous report sent to Rigzone on March 15, Bofa Global Research outlined that U.S. natural gas prices had shot higher on a combination of fundamentals and surging global energy prices after bottoming near $3.50 per MMBtu at the end of December. At the time of writing, the Henry Hub gas price stood at $6.89 per MMBtu. This time last year, the price of the commodity stood at $2.93 per MMBtu. The Henry Hub price rose from under $4 per MMBtu in February this year to $8.78 per MMBtu on May 5.

Gas Prices Just Broke Another Record: How High Could They Go? - After remaining relatively static in April, gas prices have hit record highs this week. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline swelled to $4.432 on Friday, according to AAA, 10 cents above what had been an all-time high of $4.331 reached on March 11. Friday's price represents roughly a 20-cent jump from two weeks ago and $1.40 a gallon more than this time last year. Of course, not everyone is feeling the pinch equally: The cheapest fill-up, in Georgia, is roughly $3.95 a gallon, while it's the most expensive in California, at about $5.85 a gallon. Over the course of a year, that difference adds up to nearly $1,560 for a driver topping off their tank weekly. As part of ongoing sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden announced a ban on Russian oil imports. Even though the US doesn't import much crude from Russia, oil is traded on a global market, and any ripple affects prices all over the world. When the European Union indicated last week it was proposing cutting off Russian oil, crude prices spiked and West Texas Intermediate, one of the main global oil benchmarks, rocketed past $110 a barrel. gas prices Los Angeles County saw the average price of self-serve regular gasoline pass $6 a gallon. But Troy Vincent, senior market analyst at energy analysis firm DTN, says the war in Ukraine isn't the only factor causing inflated fuel prices: Demand for gas plummeted during the pandemic, causing oil producers to put the brakes on production. Even though demand is nearing pre-pandemic levels, producers are still gun-shy about increasing production. In April, OPEC fell short of its targeted production increase by 2.7 million barrels a day. "We've had a supply-and-demand imbalance for a while," Vincent told CNET. "And it will remain, regardless of whether this conflict goes away," he said. How high will gas prices go? Experts don't believe we've seen the end of rising prices at the pump. Andy Lipow, a Houston-based industry consultant, told CNN he expects retail gas prices will climb by another 18 to 20 cents in the next few weeks. At that rate, they would break $4.50 a gallon before the end of May. While that would be a record dollar amount, adjusted for inflation it would still be below the 2008 peak of $4.144. Matt Smith, a data analyst with Kpler, told USA Today that an average of $5 per gallon is "by no means beyond the realms of possibility." "Gasoline prices will remain high as long as oil prices remain in the triple digits," Smith told the outlet. "It's going to hit the pocketbook far harder."

Gasoline & Diesel Prices Spike to New WTF Records, But Don’t Blame Crude Oil - By Wolf Richter - The average price of all grades of gasoline at the pump spiked to a record $4.33 per gallon on Monday, May 9, the third week in a row of increases, and was up 46% from a year ago, edging past the prior record of Monday, March 14 ($4.32), according to the US Energy Department’s EIA late Monday, based on its surveys of gas stations conducted during the day.Gasoline price increases slap consumers directly in the face every time they get gas, and the classic ways of hiding price increases – such as making gallons smaller (shrinkflation) – would be illegal.Adjusted for CPI inflation, it’s still not a record. In July 2008, gasoline at $4.11 would amount to $5.37 a gallon in today’s dollars. Long way to go, baby.Back then, demand destruction rippling out of the Financial Crisis and the Great Recession toppled the price spike. We’re not there yet either – but the Fed has started to work on it.Gasoline futures have been breath-takingly volatile since February, with huge spikes and drops, that led to a new record on Friday, but on Monday, they fell from that record (chart via Investing.com): The average retail price of No. 2 highway diesel spiked to a record $5.62 a gallon at the pump on Monday, the EIA reported late Monday. Year-over-year, the price of diesel has spiked by 76%! Adjusted for CPI inflation, that spike in diesel prices is still not a record. In July 2008, diesel peaked at $4.76 a gallon, which would be $6.22 in today’s dollars. Long way to go, baby. Unlike gasoline, diesel doesn’t impact most consumers directly at the pump; it hits them indirectly. This price spike adds cost pressures on truckers who pass them on essentially to everything that is moved by truck, namely just about all goods sooner or later, and to whoever ends up paying for those goods, thereby piling more costs on households, offices, construction sites, and manufacturing plants.But hang on a minute… crude oil WTI futures have been in a trading range for weeks, and on Monday ended at $102 a barrel, a the lower end of the trading range that started in March, and below where it had been in 2013 and 2014, and well below the peak in July 2008, when it touched $150 a barrel.Note the historic mind-bender back in April 2020, when WTI futures kathoomphed to minus $37 a barrel for a moment.Adjusted for CPI inflation, that $150 a barrel back in July 2008 would be $196 in today’s dollars. So, today’s price of $102 is far below the spike of 2008 in “real” terms and doesn’t yet amount to any kind of actual oil shock.This gap between the record gasoline and diesel prices and the far-below-record crude oil prices shows that the inflationary mindset is firmly in charge, that consumers pay whatever prices, no matter how much they gripe about it. And truckers pay the prices because there is still huge demand for transportation services in this still overstimulated economy, and they can pass on those prices, including via fuel surcharges, and their customers pay those prices and surcharges, and there hasn’t been the kind of demand destruction that would cause the price of diesel to come down – regardless of what the price of crude oil does.

Tumbling Inventories Send US Gasoline, Diesel Prices To Fresh Record High - - U.S. gasoline prices continued to rise, setting another all-time high on Wednesday at $4.404 per gallon average nationwide, data from AAA showed today. That’s the highest recorded average price for gasoline in the United States, ever. Diesel prices also hit a new high on Wednesday, reaching $5.553 a gallon. This is the highest average price ever recorded, too. Average U.S. gasoline prices have reached new records every day this week, with Monday’s price at $4.328 per gallon. The gasoline price increased to $4.374 a gallon on Tuesday, to pass the $4.40 mark on Wednesday for the latest all-time high.To compare, at this time last year, the national average U.S. gasoline price stood at $2.985 per gallon, per AAA data. High international crude oil prices, with markets rattled by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a post-COVID recovery in travel demand, have been pushing U.S. gasoline prices higher this year.According to forecasts by fuel-savings app GasBuddy, U.S. gasoline prices will see the highest monthly average for 2022 in May. GasBuddy sees prices averaging $4.25/gal in May, but they could rise as high as $4.51/gal nationally, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, tweeted on Tuesday. Gasoline prices could hit $4.62/gal on some days in August this year, GasBuddy’s forecasts show. The yearly average for 2022 is predicted at $3.99 per gallon. Meanwhile, the price of diesel has also soared to record highs amid very tight domestic inventories of middle distillates and a global shortage of supply. Diesel is used in every part of the industrial activity and supply chain, from goods transportation to manufacturing and agriculture; it fuels America’s economy. Diesel prices have soared to record highs in recent months, adding further upward pressure on U.S. inflation figures.The exceptionally tight diesel market at home and abroad is unlikely to ease any time soon, considering the post-COVID demand from industry and for leisure and travel, as well as the reduced supply of diesel, other fuels, and crude oil from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and the bans on Russian imports or self-sanctioning of buyers in the West to buy Russian energy goods. On the East Coast, inventories are at their lowest ever, as the refinery capacity in the region has halved over the past decade to just 818,000 barrels per day now. So, instead of focusing on boosting the production of gasoline in the summer driving season, this year U.S. refiners could be looking to raise diesel and jet fuel runs, as the global market of distillates is very tight following the Russian war in Ukraine and supports high refinery margins for those products. The global diesel crunch is expected to worsen if the EU reaches some kind of a compromise on banning Russian crude and oil product imports. This will keep diesel prices elevated, impacting every economic activity in the U.S. and elsewhere, and ultimately hitting consumers.

Diesel Rises 11.4¢, Sets New Record at $5.623 a Gallon - The national average price of diesel posted its second double-digit increase in as many weeks, rising 11.4 cents to $5.623 a gallon and a new all-time high, according to Energy Information Administration data released May 9. The most recent price upswing comes on the heels of last week’s 34.9-cent spike for a gain of 46.3 cents in the past two weeks. Diesel’s price has climbed each of the past four weeks after a 7.1-cent drop April 11. Trucking’s main fuel now costs $2.437 more for a gallon than it did at this time in 2021. Diesel’s price rose in all 10 regions in EIA’s weekly survey. New England and the Central Atlantic experienced the largest gains at 23.8 cents, and the East Coast (20.6) also topped 20 cents. California’s 4.9-cent uptick was the smallest, yet that state still has the nation’s most expensive diesel at $6.461 a gallon. The price of gasoline will hit motorists harder following a 14.6-cent jump, making the national average now $4.328 a gallon. On the West Coast it's $5.222 a gallon.

Record High Diesel Prices Will Ripple Across The Economy - The highest inflation in the U.S. in four decades is set to persist and even increase in the coming months as the price of diesel is at record highs amid very tight domestic inventories and a global shortage of supply. Diesel is used in every part of the industrial activity and supply chain, from goods transportation to manufacturing and agriculture; it fuels America’s economy. Diesel prices have soared to record highs in recent months, adding further upward pressure on U.S. inflation figures. The exceptionally tight diesel market at home and abroad is unlikely to ease any time soon, considering the post-COVID demand from industry and for leisure and travel, as well as the reduced supply of diesel, other fuels, and crude oil from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and the bans on Russian imports or self-sanctioning of buyers in the West to buy Russian energy goods.The national average U.S. diesel prices were at a record $5.540 per gallon on Monday, per AAA data, more than $1.20 a gallon over the average gasoline price, and up from $3.111 at this time of the year in 2021.“Not only are diesel prices at a record high, they are at their largest differential to gasoline on record, surpassing the 98-cent difference in 2008 and currently standing at a $1.20 per gallon premium. While motorists filling with gasoline have seen a slight rise in prices, diesel’s surge will be a double whammy as diesel prices will soon be passed along to retail channels, further pushing up the cost of goods,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a weekly commentary on Monday.A week earlier, De Haan commented that “For now, the rising cost of diesel will surely be felt in the grocery store, hardware store or on your next flight as jet fuel prices accelerate, leading to a continued rise in inflation likely to ripple across the economy.”The Fed is seeking to curb the rampant inflation, announcing last week the single largest interest rate hike in more than two decades, when it raised the key rate by 0.50 percentage point. “Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing, and we’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the press conference following the monetary policy decision. “It is essential that we bring inflation down if we are to have a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all,” Powell added. In the Financial Stability Report published this week, the Fed noted that “inflation has been higher and more persistent than expected, even before the invasion of Ukraine, and uncertainty over the inflation outlook poses risks to financial conditions and economic activity.” “Further adverse surprises in inflation and interest rates, particularly if accompanied by a decline in economic activity, could negatively affect the financial system,” the Fed warned, adding that this combination could weaken the finances of both households and businesses, “leading to an increase in delinquencies, bankruptcies, and other forms of financial distress.”

Major Trucking Firms Prepare For "Imminent Diesel Shortage In Eastern Half Of US" - Major trucking fleets across the eastern half of the US are preparing for an "imminent" diesel shortage, according to logistics firm FreightWaves. Founder and CEO of FreightWaves Craig Fuller said "3 very large fleets" are preparing for diesel pumps at fuel stations to run dry. Drivers of these fleets received notifications about fuel shortages that could materialize in the coming weeks across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions.Major truckstop chains Loves and Pilot warning about imminent diesel shortages in the eastern half of the US— Craig Fuller (@FreightAlley) May 11, 2022Fuller tweeted several messages that drivers received from fleet operators. The notifications were alarming.

• pic.twitter.com/yFYyjzYMWE — Craig Fuller (@FreightAlley) May 11, 2022
• Another one pic.twitter.com/eQak0zptQW — Craig Fuller (@FreightAlley) May 11, 2022
• pic.twitter.com/b4kHLpmeIl— Craig Fuller (@FreightAlley) May 11, 2022
• We’ve confirmed with a number of fleets they are hearing consistent messages from the stops— Craig Fuller (@FreightAlley) May 11, 2022
• Georgia, Carolinas, Maryland, and Pennsylvania - were the specific areas that could be impacted. We heard that as many of 25% of their retail locations could see shortages in the East — Craig Fuller (@FreightAlley) May 11, 2022

He also tweeted what appears to be an unnamed industry insider explaining the historic mess hitting Mid-Atlantic and Northeast markets is a combination of crude being diverted from the US to Europe and supply chains issues along the East Coast.

China’s Port Lockdowns Threaten Domestic Trucking - China locking down key port cities because of a new outbreak of the coronavirus could have serious ramifications for trucking in the United States. “We are seeing a slowdown in cargo volume due to COVID-19 shutdowns in Shanghai,” Port of Long Beach Executive Director Mario Cordero told Transport Topics. “We would expect to eventually see a corresponding uptick or even a slight surge in cargo volume as the supply chain would be expected to catch up. This has been the pattern in the past as China has dealt with COVID outbreaks.” FourKites data from May 3 shows the two-week average shipment volume for loads traveling from China to the United States was down 20% as of April 29, compared with the day before lockdowns went into effect in Shenzhen and Shanghai on March 12. Still, it does show some signs of recovery with average shipment volumes being down 36% as of April 20. “I think we’re going to see the ripple effect pretty quickly,” said Ryan Closser, director of network enablement at FourKites. “There’ll be downstream ramifications pretty quickly. It is going to start at the ports immediately. But I think all the trucking companies are going to feel it.” Closser noted the slowdown could then be followed by a surge of ships when the lockdowns lift. This could cause bottlenecks when they finally reach the West Coast. He estimates that another two to four weeks of lockdowns could cause serious issues domestically. “The longer this goes on, the bigger potential for pretty serious disruptions,” Closser said. “The domestic freight market is going to have issues because there will be no freight to move. There will be no raw materials coming in from China to the U.S. so production could potentially shut down. So then say that China opens back up again and things are flowing through and they’re working through that backlog, there is then a crush of boats that starts toward ports again.”

 April Producer Price Index: Final Demand Up 11% YoY -This morning's release of the April Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was up 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 2.1% change last month. It is at 15.6% year-over-year, up from a 15.3% increase last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.The April PPI for Final Demand was at 0.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 1.6% increase last month. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts for Final Demand were for 0.5% headline and 0.6% core.Here is the summary of the news release on Final Demand:The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 1.6 percent in March and 1.1 percent in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 11.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April.In April, the rise in the index for final demand is primarily attributable to a 1.3-percent advance in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand construction increased 4.0 percent, while prices for final demand services were unchanged. More… Also the BLS has decided to begin tracking PPI to three decimal points: With this modification, data within the 3-month interim revision period will be updated and published on a monthly basis. This replaces the current policy of only publishing revised data once, when the data have been finalized 4 months after original publication. PPI data will continue to be finalized 4 months after initial publication.The publication of interim index values will allow for greater transparency regarding PPI revisions, and will align PPI official index publication with Bureau of Economic Analysis use of PPI interim index data as an input to Gross Domestic Product calculations. The BLS shifted its focus to its new "Final Demand" series in 2014, a shift we support. However, the data for these series are only constructed back to November 2009 for Headline and April 2010 for Core. Since our focus is on longer-term trends, we continue to track the legacy Producer Price Index for Finished Goods, which the BLS also includes in their monthly updates.As this (older) overlay illustrates, the Final Demand and Finished Goods indexes are highly correlated.

US Producer Prices Surge 11% in April as Food Prices Jump (AP) — U.S. producer prices soared 11% in April from a year earlier, a hefty gain that indicates high inflation will remain a burden for consumers and businesses in the months ahead. The Labor Department said Thursday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it reaches consumers — climbed 0.5% in April from March. That is a slowdown from the previous month, however, when it jumped 1.6%. The report included some signs that price increases are moderating, but at a painfully high level. The year-over-year increase in April fell from the 11.5% annual gain in March, the first decline in the yearly data since December 2020. And the monthly gain of 0.5% was the smallest in seven months. Yet prices are still rising at a historically rapid clip. Food costs rose 1.5% just in April from March, while shipping and warehousing prices leapt 3.6%. New car prices rose 0.8%. The producer price data captures inflation at an earlier stage of production and can sometimes signal where consumer prices are headed. It also feeds into the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index. Thursday's figures came just a day after the government released consumer price data for April, which showed that inflation leapt 8.3% last month from a year ago. That increase is down slightly from the four-decade high in March of 8.5%. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.3% in April from March, the smallest increase in eight months. Still, there were plenty of signs in the consumer price report that inflation will remain stubbornly high, likely for the rest of this year and into 2023. Rents rose faster as many apartment buildings have lifted monthly payments for new tenants. Prices for airline tickets jumped by the most on records dating to 1963. And food prices continued to rise sharply. The Federal Reserve has stepped up its fight against rampant price increases, lifting its benchmark short-term interest rate by a half-point last week to a range of 0.75% and 1%. That increase is double its usual quarter-point hike. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also signaled the Fed will likely hike rates by a half-point in June and July. Several Fed officials have said they would like to get its benchmark rate to roughly 2.5% by the end of this year, which would constitute the fastest pace of hikes in 33 years. The prospect of higher interest rates and the potential that they could push the economy into recession has badly rattled financial markets this month.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 203,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending May 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 203,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 200,000 to 202,000. The 4-week moving average was 192,750, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 188,000 to 188,500.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

55,000 Los Angeles County workers vote near-unanimously to authorize strike action --More than 55,000 Los Angeles County workers voted by 98 percent to approve strike action against the Democratic Party-controlled county government, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 721 announced Friday. The workers provide health care, library administration, public works, social services, homelessness outreach and custodial services. They are opposing outsourcing and privatization of their jobs and demanding guaranteed health benefits, additional child and elder care support and wages keeping pace with inflation.The vote is the latest sign of rapidly developing movement of within the working class. The vote was announced amid a strike by more than 1,000 agricultural equipment workers at CNH in the Midwest, and after a strike authorization vote by an identical margin by automotive workers at Detroit Diesel. These are being driven, on a world scale, by brutal working conditions, rapid inflation and the disastrous COVID policies imposed on society by the corporate elite.The state of California in particular is emerging as a major battleground. Yesterday, hundreds of health care workers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Centerlaunched a strike, following last month’s strike by more than 5,000 nurses at Stanford Health in Northern California. Thousands of educators in Sacramento went on strike for eight days earlier this year, and Oakland teachers carried out a one day strike late last month. Over the next two months, hundreds of thousands of workers across the region, including 20,000 dockworkers in Los Angeles and along the entire West Coast, have their contracts expire, creating the potential for a broader counteroffensive in defense of jobs and working conditions.LA County workers have been without a contract since their old one expired on April 1. The day before the expiration, Local 721 had held a march and rally in downtown Los Angeles involving over two thousand workers to protest the County’s contract proposals.

Infant formula shortage worsens- A nationwide shortage of infant formula is worsening, sending parents scrambling and lawmakers demanding answers. For the week starting April 24, the out-of-stock percentage of formula reached 40 percent, according to an analysis by Datasembly, a retail tracking company. That’s an increase from 31 percent at the beginning of April. In the beginning of May, the nationwide out-of-stock percentage grew even more, and stands at 43 percent for the week ending May 8th, the company said. Healthy babies have plenty of options for feeding, but the shortages are being felt most acutely by parents whose children need specialty formula to survive because they suffer from severe medical conditions, including metabolic disorders. Supply chain problems have been exacerbated by a nationwide recall of formula made by Abbott Nutrition, one of the largest formula suppliers in the country, and the continued shutdown of Abbott’s manufacturing plant in Michigan. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) launched an inspection of the plant amid complaints that four infants had been hospitalized with rare bacterial infections after consuming powdered formula that was made in the facility. Two infants died from the infections. Abbott and the FDA issued a recall of three brands of formula made in the facility, including Similac. The issue exploded politically, as Republicans tried to blame the Biden administration for the shortage. “This is absolutely UNACCEPTABLE in America,” Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) tweeted. “Sadly, this has become the norm because of Joe Biden’s radical agenda.” In a letter to FDA commissioner Robert Califf on Tuesday, Stefanik blamed Biden’s “inflationary policies” for the shortage. White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Monday said FDA is working “around the clock” to fix the shortage, but noted there is no national stockpile of formula the administration could tap to alleviate the issue.

Report Released on the Brutality of Indian Boarding Schools - After centuries of silence and inaction, the U.S. government has released a historic accounting of Indian boarding schools and their devastating legacy — a methodical report announced today by the woman at the helm of the Department of Interior, a member of the Pueblo of Laguna and the nation’s first Indigenous cabinet secretary. At a Washington, D.C., press conference, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland detailed the horrors Native children and their families experienced in a vast and previously uncounted network of more than 400 boarding schools that the government ran or supported. In its 102-page report, her federal agency also said it had identified 53 marked and unmarked burial grounds on school sites where American Indian, Alaska Native, and Native Hawaiian children could be forcibly sent for more than a century. Often, the Interior Department acknowledged, families were never told that their children had perished. There is “ample evidence” in federal archives, the report states, that the government “coerced, induced, or compelled Indian children to enter the Federal Indian boarding school system.” The treatment of students included “solitary confinement; flogging; withholding food; whipping; slapping; and cuffing.” In announcing the findings of her department’s year-long inquiry, a clearly emotional Haaland also described the schools’ calamitous legacy. “The federal policies that attempted to wipe out Native identity, language and culture continue to manifest in the pain that tribal communities face today,” Haaland said at a Washington, D.C., press conference. The newly released Federal Indian Boarding School Initiative Investigative Report notes “cycles of violence and abuse, disappearance of Indigenous people, premature deaths, poverty and loss of wealth, mental health disorders, and substance abuse.” “While we move towards a place of truth-telling with the release of today’s Federal Indian Board School Initiative report, there is still much work to be done,” Sandy White Hawk (Sicangu Lakota), the board president of the Native American Boarding School Healing Coalition, said in a statement sent to The Imprint. The next step needed, she added, is Congressional passage of the Truth and Healing Commission on Indian Boarding School Policies Act, which would convene boarding school survivors, a broad cross-section of tribal representatives, and experts in education, health, and children and families — “to fully express and understand the impacts of the federal policy of Indian child removal.”

Report on American Indian boarding schools reveals horrible treatment of Indigenous children - CBS News -- The U.S. is acknowledging the large-scale and violent treatment of Indigenous students at more than 400 Indian boarding schools run by the federal government between 1819 and 1969, according to a report released by the Department of Interior on Wednesday. Over 500 American Indian, Alaska Native, and Native Hawaiian children's deaths occurred at 19 of the federal Indian boarding schools, according to the report. In total, 53 marked and unmarked burial sites were identified at these school facilities nationwide. The investigation is ongoing, and the department said it expects "the approximate number of Indian children who died at Federal Indian boarding schools to be in the thousands or tens of thousands." Beginning in the early 19th century in the U.S., Indigenous children were "selected" from reservation schools and moved away from their families to attend the government-chartered schools, which were often subcontracted to Presbyterian, Catholic and Episcopalian religious organizations to operate, the report said. The Indian boarding schools, which were often located at active or decommissioned military sites, separated children from their families and forced them to abandon their native language and culture through what the report termed "systematic militarized and identity-alteration methodologies." The children had their hair cut and were given English names. They were forced to adhere to strict schedules that included lessons in English, obedience, cleanliness and Christianity. According to the report, each day was so strictly systemized that there was "little opportunity to exercise any power of choice." When children failed to meet school standards or broke rules, they were "subject to corporal punishment, including solitary confinement; flogging; withholding food; whipping; slapping; and cuffing." Older children were forced to inflict punishment on younger children. The report detailed "rampant physical, sexual, and emotional abuse; disease; malnourishment; overcrowding; and lack of health care." At some boarding schools, several children were forced to sleep in one bed. The Interior Department report identified 408 federally run schools in 37 states. Oklahoma had the highest number of schools, with 76, followed by 44 in Arizona, 43 in New Mexico and 30 in South Dakota. The Interior Department said it is not publicly detailing the locations of the children's burial sites "in order to protect against well-documented grave-robbing, vandalism, and other disturbances to Indian burial sites." But it is working to notify tribes of the burial sites.

U.S. counts Indian boarding school deaths for first time but leaves key questions unanswered - At least 500 Native American, Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian children died while attending Indian boarding schools run or supported by the U.S. government, a highly anticipated Interior Department report said Wednesday. The report identified over 400 schools and more than 50 gravesites and said more gravesites would likely be found. The report is the first time in U.S. history that the government has attempted to comprehensively research and acknowledge the magnitude of the horrors it inflicted on Native American children for decades. But it falls well short of some independent estimates of deaths and does not address how the children died or who was responsible. The report also sheds little new light on the physical and sexual abuse generations of Indigenous children endured at the schools, which were open for more than 150 years, starting in the early 1800s. . The report and an accompanying news release acknowledge the harms to Indigenous children but stop short of offering an apology from the federal government, which tribal leaders have been requesting for decades. Last month, Pope Francis apologized for the Roman Catholic Church’s role in Canada’s boarding school system, and First Nation leaders there are asking him to apologize in person when he visits the country this summer. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland's grandparents were both 8 years old when they were forced to attend boarding school, she said Wednesday at a news conference. “Many children like them never made it back to their homes. Each of those children is a missing family member, a person who was not able to live out their purpose on this Earth because they lost their lives as part of this terrible system,” Haaland said, holding back tears. The trauma caused by federal Indian boarding school policies — including the separation of children as young as 4 years old from their families — dates back generations and is ongoing, Halaand said. The report is the first step toward understanding what assistance people need to overcome that trauma, she said, including mental health services and language revitalization, since children were abused and forbidden from speaking their native languages at the schools. "Even though it’s ceased or stopped in many places, the vestiges of it is still continuing today," said James LaBelle, Sr., who is Inupiaq and a vice president of the National Native American Boarding School Healing Coalition, a nonprofit that helped compile the report and advocates for survivors of Indian boarding schools. The report identified more than 500 child deaths after examining records for 19 of the facilities, a small share of the total number of schools identified. “As the investigation continues, the Department expects the number of recorded deaths to increase,” it states. The number is significantly less than some estimates, which are in the tens of thousands. “The United States doesn’t even know how many Indian students went through these institutions — let alone how many actually died in them,” said Preston S. McBride, an Indian boarding school historian and a Comanche descendent. McBride has found more than 1,000 student deaths at the four former boarding schools he has studied, and estimates the overall number of deaths could be as high as 40,000. “Basically every school had a cemetery,” he said. “There are deaths at or deaths because of virtually every single boarding school.” Those deaths were the result of everything from illness to abuse, McBride said, based on his review of historical records, including letters written by students, parents and administrators. Getting to the true number would take a significant amount of time and research, McBride said. “I think we have a long way to go.” The report notes the investigation will likely "reveal the approximate number of Indian children who died at Federal Indian boarding schools to be in the thousands or tens of thousands.”

School litter box fever will not die in Iowa -Iowa is being plagued by multiple cases of what I’m diagnosing as a strain of cat scratch fever.Symptoms include a fever, which is worsened by spending lots of time in conservative culture war fever swamps. There’s also a loss of appetite, for facts. But the clearest evidence you’ve been stricken is believing that public school districts in Iowa have placed litter boxes in school bathrooms to accommodate kids identifying as animals. I wish I were making this up. And despite the best efforts of the reality-based community to find a cure, the condition continues to spread. The truth has been declawed. I received an email last Saturday morning from a guy I know in Fort Dodge dating back to my time at the Fort Dodge Messenger. Ernie Kersten had been at the “Eggs and Issues” legislative forum in Fort Dodge, where state Sen. Tim Kraayenbrink, R-Fort Dodge, went on a curious riff about why Iowa needs to offer publicly funded scholarships to help families send kids to private school. Kraayenbrink said a school district in his Senate district put litter boxes in bathrooms to accommodate “flurries.” He also pointed to an unidentified school district where he said girls are wearing one-piece bathing suits to shower because boys are infiltrating their showers. “Are you hearing similar nonsense?” Kersten asked. Yeah, unfortunately. Sure enough, the Messenger was on the scene at Eggs and Issues to report on the senator’s thoughts.“Not in the Fort Dodge district, but in my Senate district, they’re requiring these schools to put kitty litter boxes in the bathroom,” Kraayenbrink said, according to the Messenger’s Kelby Wingert. “The thing is, these things are happening in Iowa on a regular basis and nobody knows about it, because the media doesn’t cover these things.”Of course, the media is keeping littergate secret. It’s a cat-spiracy. By the way, this is one of the 32 Republican senators guiding public policy in Iowa, not your nutty cousin on Facebook.Naturally, Wilbert wanted to know which school district the senator was referring to. Using catlike political reflexes, Kraayenbrink tried to scratch some litter to cover up the mess he made.In a text message on Sunday, Kraayenbrink told the Messenger he found out about the litter boxes during a “confidential” conversation and he does not “feel comfortable” identifying the district.Also, the litter boxes don’t exist. The same story has been debunked elsewhere in Iowa and in Nebraska,Wisconsin and Michigan. It’s been circulating since last year and won’t die.

MA School COVID Cases: 63.6% Increase in Last Week – NBC Boston - The number of new COVID-19 cases in Massachusetts schools has shot up significantly, with 17,423 students and staff members testing positive in the last week.The state Department of Elementary and Secondary Education released the numbers Thursday in its weekly COVID-19 report, which covers May 5-11.During that time period, 13,380 students and 4,043 school workers tested positive for coronavirus. Those cases make up 1.45% of the student body and 2.89% of employees.The total cases represented an increase of 62.6% from last week's report, when 10,715 cases were confirmed in schools, including 8,079 students and 2,636 staff members.New COVID cases had been on the rise through the holiday season and the omicron surge, but began to decrease after Jan. 13, when 48,414 were reported. From around the start of March, though, cases have been ticking back up.Massachusetts' statewide school mask mandate was lifted at the end of February, leaving each district to decide on its own whether facial coverings would be required. The total number of positive COVID-19 cases reported by the DESE takes into account school districts (including charter schools), collaboratives, and approved special education schools. The data only represents what has been reported to the state.

Students kept waiting while tutoring funding hangs in limbo - America’s students have suffered these last two years, and school districts have struggled to make up for lost time and lost learning. School officials have begun identifying tutoring as an evidence-based solution, and they aren’t alone. Policymakers at the state and federal levels have prioritized funding dedicated to in-person tutoring, and recent polling from EdChoice has shown substantial parental demand for and interest in tutoring and supplemental learning pods. It is encouraging to see such large-scale efforts and attention to address learning loss and academic gaps. But recently proposed tutoring plans will not go far enough if they solely focus on tutoring inside schoolhouse walls and only during regular school hours. They also will be missing a tremendous opportunity by leaving out a vital potential partner—parents and guardians. At the federal level, in March 2021, Congress passed The American Rescue Plan, which included $122 billion for public education—20 percent of which is to be used to make up for lost time. In recent months, the U.S. Department of Education has encouraged states and school districts to use that funding for in-school tutoring, often called “high-dosage” tutoring. But with an expiration date of 2024, districts are sitting on the money, seemingly not feeling the urgency to take action right now, when students need it the most. Whether it’s taking too long to plan, or not having the right mechanisms for implementation, district spending is very slow. Time spent figuring out the delivery model, processes, and financial costs—which could easily be stymied by rules, regulations, and compliance requirements—is wasted time that puts students only further behind the eight-ball. That is a frustrating development when there are numerous, turnkey partners in the private sector that can help students right away. Sylvan, Chegg, Kumon, Mathnasium—to name just a few—offer in-person afterschool tutoring, and fast-growing networking platforms like Tutors.com and Remind connect students with a tutor in a relatively short amount of time. While some might be nervous to have students use an online tutoring service, a recent study in Spain found that “compared to a control group, students in the [online] tutoring program had higher standardized test scores and grades, and were less likely to repeat a grade. They also were more likely to report putting increased effort into their schoolwork.”

Rhode Island parents enraged at school board for removing honors classes in 'equity obsession' --Barrington, Rhode Island, public schools are among the best in the state. Many parents move to the district, and tolerate the higher taxes, because of the academic rigor that sets their children up for attending Ivy League schools or receiving academic merit scholarships. However, all of that academic appeal is being chipped away after the district brought in a so-called "equity and inclusion" agenda. De-leveling, or a system of universal learning, was first implemented in Barrington on the most vulnerable students—the students with learning disabilities and Individualized Education Programs (IEP). In February 2020, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the school removed some conceptual classes. On the whole, parents of children in those classes were reluctant to speak out because they ran the risk of "outing" their child as having a disability or needing special accommodation. A mom whose daughter has an IEP and attended the removed conceptual classes said that de-leveling has caused her daughter's grades to decline. The mother requested anonymity in order to protect her daughter's identity. "I don't think I would ever be a fan of de-leveling, but the timing [to implement it during COVID] is what makes it very suspicious to me. So it just felt like it was an easy way for them to get their agenda through without pushback because people were so busy dealing with other stuff," she told Fox News Digital. The mom continued, "It [took away] any kind of individuality … or … personalized education plan for kids. It's 'you're just going to be some homogenized like education factory where they raise everybody's the same.'"Rage broke loose among parents of all political stripes after the honors students were targeted, parents said. The school announced that the days of honors English and social studies were gone. Parents protested, arguing that the move deprived their children of a competitive edge – and in effect – future opportunities such as merit scholarships. During a March 30 meeting, over a dozen parents and students scolded the school board. "My daughter has lost out on opportunities which could affect merit scholarships for her, which I think is appalling … You don't really know what you're doing on this," one mother said.

Saudi students win 6 prizes in US science contest | Arab News -Saudi students picked up six prizes at the Regeneron International Science and Engineering Fair 2022, in Atlanta, Georgia, equalling their record haul for the 16th year in a row. ISEF 2022 saw the participation of pre-college students from over 80 countries in the biggest competition showcasing innovation in scientific research and advancement. Abdullah Al-Ghamdi won two prizes in energy, Dana Al-Aithan was awarded a prize in chemistry, Tahani Adel in materials, Maria Al-Ghamdi in chemistry, and Yousef Khoja in embedded systems. The Kingdom was represented by the King Abdulaziz and His Companions Foundation for Giftedness and Creativity (Mawhiba) and the Ministry of Education. Mawhiba announced 19 winners of its special prizes from all over the world. Six students — three Saudis and three Americans — were also granted scholarships to participate in an international enrichment program organized by Mawhiba. Thirteen students from the US, India and China were also awarded scholarships to study bachelor's at King Fahd University for Petroleum and Minerals in chemistry, embedded systems, energy, physics and astronomy, robotics, and materials science. Mawhiba Secretary-General Dr. Saud bin Saeed Al-Mathami said that he is encouraging innovative students around the world to create sustainable solutions to the world’s problems and to preserve these resources for future generations. Al-Mathami expressed his hopes that the students’ talent, ideas, and creativity would contribute to the extraordinary renaissance that the Kingdom was witnessing during this auspicious era.

Teens are fighting book bans with 'banned book clubs' - — On a hot, dusty Wednesday afternoon, 10 girls gathered in their high school library to talk about a book the adults said they weren’t allowed to read.The teens came complaining about tests and chattering about TikTok dances — but they quieted when Ella Scott, the 16-year-old co-founder and co-president of the Vandegrift High School Banned Book Club, cleared her throat.Ella looked at her notes for the club’s 14th meeting, convened to review I.W. Gregorio’s “None of the Above.” The book tells the story of Kristin, a high school student who discovers she is intersex, a condition in which people are born with atypical combinations of chromosomes, hormones, gonads or genitals. In December, the Leander Independent School District had outlawed the novel from classroom libraries and from use in high school student book clubs — along with 10 other books — because it features “sensitive topics” and “concepts of sex and anatomy.”“So the main thing for this one,” Ella said, tucking her blonde hair behind her ears, “was strong language and sexual references.”Kendall Howe, 16, pulled up a discussion question on her computer screen and read aloud: “Throughout this novel, Kristin struggles to accept her identity outside of the gender binary. How does Kristin’s self-acceptance change throughout the novel?”Several people tried to speak at once.The teens in Texas — who would spend the next hour sharing how they never knew people could be intersex, and wondering what other aspects of the world will remain hidden if grown-ups keep banning books — are part of a swelling movement of students who are gathering all across the country to fight, in ways large and small, for the right to read.In Missouri, two students filed a lawsuit against their district for yanking eight books from school libraries. In New York, a group of students from the Brooklyn Public Library’s Intellectual Freedom Teen Council are meeting w eekly on Zoom to coordinate national resistance to school book censorship. And in Pennsylvania, students held daily protests outside their high school this fall until administrators reversed their decision to ban more than 300 books, films and articles, the majority by Black and Latino authors.

AFL-CIO presses Biden to cancel student debt - The AFL-CIO on Thursday urged President Biden to forgive student loans, putting additional pressure on the White House to cancel at least some of the nation’s $1.6 trillion in student loan debt. “The Biden administration’s decision to continue to pause student debt has made a tremendous difference in the lives of so many borrowers, but these borrowers still live with the uncertainty of not knowing when they will need to drastically alter their finances in order to begin repaying their loans,” AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler said in a statement. “Now is the time to cancel, not collect, student debt.” The statement comes after President Biden told reporters earlier last month that his administration is planning “additional debt forgiveness.” The Biden administration has canceled $17 billion in student debt, roughly 1 percent of the nation’s total, and recently extended a freeze on student loan payments until Aug. 31. The White House is considering expunging at least $10,000 in student debt per borrower, a move that would fulfill a key Biden campaign promise.

Disabled Ontario woman pursues medically assisted death after being denied access to suitable housing - A 31-year-old disabled woman in Toronto is nearing final approval for medical assistance in dying (MAID) after her efforts to secure suitable housing were denied. The chronically ill woman, who uses a wheelchair due to a spinal cord injury, has been diagnosed with Multiple Chemical Sensitivities (MCS), which triggers rashes, difficulty breathing, and blinding headaches. Called hemiplegic migraines, the latter cause her temporary paralysis.The chemicals that make her sick are cigarette smoke, air fresheners, and laundry chemicals. Because she is at risk of anaphylactic shock, a life-threatening allergic attack, she must carry EpiPens at all times.In what would be better described as state-sponsored murder, the woman, identified in media reports by the pseudonym Denise, is seeking a medically assisted death because she cannot find an affordable apartment that does not aggravate her illness. Research has shown that people with MCS often improve in chemically cleaner environments. Denise has been driven to despair by a lack of suitable housing, with wheelchair access and cleaner air, that is the product of decades of austerity budgets for housing and social services enforced by all the establishment political parties. Her only income is from the Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP), which provides a measly $1,169 a month plus $50 for a special diet, in a city where the average one-bedroom apartment rent is more than $2,000 and the vacancy rate is only 3 percent. With the help of supporters, Denise contacted 10 different agencies in Toronto over a six-month period to help her find affordable housing with reduced smoke and chemical exposure. “None of them were able to do anything meaningful in terms of getting me relocated, getting the discretionary emergency, or temporary housing and emergency funds,” she told CTV. “I’ve applied for MAID essentially … because of abject poverty.” Perversely getting approval for her medically assisted death is proving far easier for Denise than securing appropriate housing. First, she had to be deemed competent to make the decision by a psychiatrist. Then her medical history was reviewed and approved by one MAID provider. A second provider is now set to approve her final documents, including a power of attorney, funeral arrangements, and a DNR (Do Not Resuscitate) order.

 Experts perplexed over number of people getting long COVID -Public health experts are divided over how many people are getting long COVID-19, a potentially debilitating condition that comes after a patient has recovered from the coronavirus.Ill effects from the condition can include fatigue, pain, neurological issues and even changes in mental health.Initially, public health officials believed that only a small minority of people would suffer from long COVID-19. But some studies now indicate a majority of those infected with the coronavirus are experiencing long COVID-19 symptoms.Still, estimates on the numbers of people with long COVID are all over the map.Researchers from the Penn State College of Medicine found that more than half of COVID-19 survivors had long COVID-19.Another study from the University of Arizona found that about 2 out of 3 people who experienced mild or moderate cases of coronavirus had long-lasting symptoms.Other reports have been more conservative, estimating anywhere between 10 to 30 percent of those infected develop long-term symptoms. Those who experience ongoing symptoms from long COVID-19 have sometimes come to be known as COVID-19 long haulers.It’s generally believed that people who developed severe cases of COVID-19 are more likely to have long COVID-19, but even those who had asymptomatic cases have reported lingering after-effects months after testing negative.One problem in figuring out how many people get long COVID-19 is defining it.Apart from the wide range of symptoms, there is still debate over when a person is considered to have long COVID-19. Some health care authorities consider a patient to have the condition if symptoms persist after three to six weeks, while other think it should be considered on a longer basis.

FDA sharply limits use of Johnson & Johnson shot due to rare blood clots - The Food and Drug Administration imposed new restrictions Thursday on the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine, saying the risk of a rare and life-threatening blood clot syndrome outweighed the benefits of the vaccine for people who are 18 or older and can get another shot, unless they would otherwise remain unvaccinated.The FDA said only people who are unable to receive other vaccines because they are not accessible or clinically appropriate, or because individuals refused to get a different vaccine, should receive the Johnson & Johnson shot.The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been associated with a rare but potentially deadly blood clotting and bleeding syndrome called thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome, or TTS. The condition usually occurs within one to two weeks of vaccination, and a commonly used treatment to address clotting, heparin, can cause additional harm.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials in Decemberalready recommended that other vaccines should be used instead of the Johnson & Johnson shot, but an additional analysis persuaded the FDA to make major changes to the vaccine’s emergency use authorization, which stipulates how the shot can be used.About 18.7 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine have been administered in the United States, compared with 340.6 million of the Pfizer-BioNTech shots and 217.5 million Moderna shots.

1 million covid deaths: Families, co-workers, friends devastated - One million dead: The U.S. death toll from the covid-19 pandemic will hit that unfathomable number this week, and yet there is a far larger number that reflects the true impact this virus has had on Americans over the past two years. That number is 9 million — the number of Americans who have lost spouses, parents, grandparents, siblings and children to covid.Sociologists at Penn State and the University of Southern California came up with a “bereavement multiplier,” a way to calculate how many close relatives each covid death leaves behind and bereft. The answer, on average, is nine — not including extended family or close friends, longtime co-workers or next-door neighbors, many of whom, the study said, are deeply affected, too.Covid quickly became the third-biggest killer of Americans, behind only heart disease and cancer, according to federal statistics for 2020. One million is how many people live in San Jose, Calif., or Austin, Tex., or in Montgomery County, Md., or Westchester County, N.Y. It’s more people than live in the six smallest states or D.C., about as many as live in Delaware or Rhode Island.In all likelihood, the death toll is significantly higher than the official 1 million, the National Center for Health Statistics reports, noting that some Americans whose death certificates list heart attacks or hypertensive disease likely had undiagnosed coronavirus infections.Americans have died of covid at a higher rate than in any other major industrialized country, and life expectancy for Americans has fallen over the past two years at the sharpest rate since the double whammy of World War I and the 1918 flu pandemic.The 1 million dead may seem like a random group, yet they fall into clear patterns: Those killed by covid were mostly old; disproportionately low income, Black or Hispanic; and overwhelmingly unvaccinated. People who did not get the shot were 53.2 times more likely to die than fully vaccinated and boosted people.Yet in those concentric circles of grief around the 1 million are people of every age, every income level and every background, vaccinated and not. In the ripples that bubble outward from each death, the tensions and divisions of American society are at play. Covid honors no walls.As the country marks the million milestone, these are stories of five who died — and the many others who carry on with a gaping hole in their lives.

What we can learn from vaccinated covid deaths - Washington Post podcast -Nearly 1 million people in the United States have died of covid-19, and the toll is growing among vaccinated people as the virus gets harder and harder to dodge. Today on Post Reports, what we can learn from looking at vaccinated deaths. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, vaccinated people made up a shocking 42 percent of covid deaths in January and February during the peak of the omicron surge, compared with 23 percent during delta’s surge in September. Vaccines are still highly effective at preventing illness and death. But as more and more highly contagious variants arise, it becomes harder for elderly people, the immunocompromised and those whose vaccines are wearing off to avoid infection. Health reporter Fenit Nirappil wanted to dispel the myth that only unvaccinated people are dying of covid — and he wanted to put names and faces to some of the hundreds of thousands of people who died this past winter. Today on Post Reports, a look at what happened during the winter surge, and what we can learn from it as the virus continues to mutate.

‘We’ve not seen the WORST of Covid’ warns Microsoft billionaire Bill Gates - Microsoft billionaire Bill Gates has warned there is a 'way above five per cent' risk the world has not yet seen the worst of the Covid pandemic. The tech mogul and philanthropist said he did not want to sound 'doom and gloom' but warned there was a risk an 'even more transmissive and even more fatal' variant could be generated. He said the risk of that happening is 'way above five per cent' and would mean the world has yet to see the worst of the pandemic. It is not the first time he has made such a prediction. In December 2021, he warned his millions of Twitter followers to brace themselves for the worst part of the pandemic having previously cautioned in 2015 that the world was not ready for the next pandemic. Gates told the FT: 'We're still at risk of this pandemic generating a variant that would be even more transmissive and even more fatal. 'It's not likely, I don't want to be a voice of doom and gloom, but it's way above a 5 per cent risk that this pandemic, we haven't even seen the worst of it.' Covid-19 has killed an estimated 6.2million people worldwide since March 2020, but case numbers and deaths have been dropping in recent weeks. Gates' warning comes after Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organisation (WHO), this week warned that people still needed to be wary of the virus, and that decreases in overall testing and Covid surveillance in many countries left the world at risk to a resurgence of the virus. Gates - who releases his new book How to Prevent the Next Pandemic on Tuesday - advised governments across the world to invest in a team of epidemiologists and computer modellers to help identify global health threats in the future.

Newer, fitter descendants of Omicron variant begin to drive their own coronavirus waves - There's no denying the numbers: Even with spotty reporting, Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations are rising again in the United States.Cases are trending up in most states and have increased by more than 50% compared with the previous week in Washington, Mississippi, Georgia, Maine, Hawaii, South Dakota, Nevada and Montana. In New York, more than a quarter of the state's population is in a county with a "high" Covid-19 community level, where the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends indoor masking.Average daily hospitalizations are up about 10% since last week, according to data collected by the US Department of Health and Human Services.The culprit this time appears to be a spinoff of Omicron's BA.2 subvariant called BA.2.12.1, which was first flagged by New York state health officials in April.BA.2.12.1, which is growing about 25% faster than its parent virus, BA.2, accounts for nearly 37% all Covid-19 cases across the US, according to new estimates from the CDC.BA.2 caused an estimated 62% of all Covid-19 cases last week, down from 70% the week before.BA.2.12.1 isn't the only Omicron offshoot that scientists are watching. After weeks of declines, South Africa saw its Covid-19 cases rise steeply in the past two weeks. Test positivity and hospitalizations have also popped up as scientists have watched two relatively new subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5, dominate transmission in that country. Taken together, they accounted for almost 60% of all new Covid-19 cases by the end of April, according to South Africa's National Institute of Communicable Diseases. These new Omicron subvariants are spreading around the globe. BA.4 sequences have been reported in 15 countries and 10 US states, while BA.5 has been picked up in 13 countries and five US states, according to the website Outbreak.info, which maintained by a coalition of academic research centers and is supported by funding from the National Institutes of Health. Like BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5 have a growth advantage over BA.2. A new preprint study, published ahead of peer review, is pointing to why BA.4 and BA.5 are gaining ground: They can escape antibodies generated by previous infections caused by the first Omicron virus, BA.1, the variant responsible for the huge wave of infections that hit many countries in December and January. They can also escape antibodies in people who've been vaccinated and had breakthrough BA.1 infections, though this happened to a lesser degree than seen in people who've only been infected. Researchers in South Africa tested the ability of antibodies in blood to disable BA.4 and BA.5 viruses in a lab. In people who were unvaccinated but recently recovered from a BA.1 infection, they saw a more than seven-fold drop in the ability of their antibodies to neutralize BA.4 and BA.5 viruses. In people who'd been vaccinated but recently had a breakthrough infection caused by BA.1, the drops were smaller, about three-fold lower. The study results led the researchers to write that "BA.4 and BA.5 have potential to result in a new infection wave," making Covid-19 vaccinations and booster shots crucial to stopping the next wave.

Omicron Subvariant BA.2.12.1 Poised To Become Dominant In U.S. This Week; Already Driving Covid Hospitalizations In New York -In the past few weeks, everyone from late night hosts to country stars to comedians to many at the White House, including Vice President Kamala Harris, has contracted Covid. The uptick in boldfaced names testing positive is not a coincidence.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data released today shows BA.2.12.1, thought to be 30% more infectious than BA.2, is poised to become the dominant variant in the United States.Seven weeks ago, Americans got the news of what was then the latest in several waves of new Omicron variants, each more infectious than the rest. BA.2.12.1 is actually a subvariant of BA.2, which was at that point pushing out the original Omicron. Before March 19, BA.2.12.1 and sister subvariant BA.2.12.2 made up only 1.5% of newly-sequenced positive tests.By last week, BA.2.12.1 had beaten out its sister sublineage for a 36.5% share of all newly-sequenced positive Covid tests. This week, that number has jumped to 42.6%, making it very likely that BA.2.12.1 will become the dominant variant in the country in the next 7-10 days.In the region comprised of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, where the subvariant was first identified, it is already tied to 66% of new cases sequenced. As of the past weekend, hospitalizations and deaths in New Yorkwere up 38% and 24%, respectively.It’s important to note that BA.2 had already begun sending those numbers up before BA.2.12.1 took hold, but the new variant seems to be supercharging the increases in those important categories.Across Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia, BA.2.12.1 makes up 48% of new cases. The Southeast is close behind, with 45% of new infections now associated with the subvariant. See map below for a regional look at the U.S. updated today by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.If there is good news in the new data, it’s that the next wave of Omicron variants — called BA.4 and BA.5 and thought to be even more transmissible than BA.2.12.1 — have not seen the same rate of spread in the U.S. since their arrival here on March 19. Their share remains minuscule, with only 19 cases detected Stateside since March 19.

One hundred million coronavirus cases in the US predicted for fall and winter surge - The Biden administration announced Friday that it expects the US to record 100 million new cases of COVID-19 during the coming fall and winter months. According to the Washington Post article that broke the story, the administration also warned of a “significant wave of deaths.” The projections came from a currently unnamed White House official at a private press briefing, the details of which have yet to be made public. The most the Post states is that the administration made its estimate based on “outside models of the pandemic,” all of which assume that Omicron and its subvariants continue to remain dominant. The projections become even more dire if new and more virulent variants emerge, as has happened repeatedly since the Alpha variant was first detected in the United Kingdom in late 2020. The implications of such a level of mass infection are staggering. One hundred million new cases in just over six months compares to an estimated 200 million infections since the pandemic began in the US 26 months ago. One hundred million new cases suggests, based on a study published in April by the Oxford University Press, 43 million new cases of Long COVID. One hundred million new cases implies, using the accepted infection fatality rate from the virus of 0.5 percent, 500,000 additional deaths. A report by ABC News on the projections, which included an interview with White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Ashish Jha, painted a dire picture. Jha confirmed to ABC’s David Muir that “between now and the fall and winter, [it is] very possible we’re going to see new variants” that will be more contagious. At the same time, he noted that when the new wave hits, “we’re not going to have vaccines … we’re going to run out of treatments … we’re not going to have diagnostic testing.” Jha, however, had nothing to propose aside from the White House mantra that vaccines are the panacea to end the pandemic. “If you’ve been vaccinated and boosted, you have a very high degree of protection against severe illness,” said Jha, making no mention of even basic mitigation measures such as masks.

State COVID cases rise, deaths toll hits 7,600 - COVID-19 cases in New Mexico are trending up as sites across the country lower their flags to half-staff until sunset May 16 to commemorate 1 million American lives lost to the disease caused by the coronavirus. New Mexico on Thursday reported six new deaths, pushing the statewide toll to 7,600 since the start of the pandemic more than two years ago. The John Hopkins School of Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center was reporting almost 999,000 COVID deaths Thursday afternoon. “There are many grieving hearts hurting across our nation today as we mourn the one million lives lost to this pandemic,” U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján, D-N.M., said on Twitter. “I hope we can all take a moment to reflect on the past two years, and honor the lives that have been lost.” Health Department epidemiology reports dated May 9 show New Mexico reported 1,764 new COVID cases the previous week. That was a 29% increase from the week before, when 1,372 cases were reported. The week before that, 1,117 cases were identified. New Mexico isn’t unique in that trend. The New York Times reported Wednesday that COVID cases around the country have increased 58% in the past 14 days, which is the exact same percentage increase New Mexico saw over the past two weeks, according to weekly epidemiology reports. A total of 33 patients with COVID were admitted to hospitals in the most recent week, as reflected in the state reports. There were 43 COVID patients admitted to hospitals in the report dated May 2 and 31 new admissions in the report dated April 25.

Ohio reports 15,970 new COVID-19 cases, 6th straight weekly increase – The Ohio Department of Health on Thursday reported 15,970 new COVID-19 cases for the past week, extending a streak of week-over-week increases to six. This week followed last week’s theme, again reporting over 10,000 cases. The 21-day daily average — now at 1,700 — has again eclipsed 1,000. The average has increased from the week prior when it was 1,268. The state averaged about 2,281 new coronavirus cases over the past seven days, the highest rate since Feb. 22. Cases are up 36% over last week. State and local health authorities told NBC4 previously while the weekly case average has tripled from March to May as COVID-19 transitions from pandemic to endemic, it has not created a burden on local healthcare systems at this time. ODH began reporting COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccinations weekly instead of daily in mid-March after new infections slowed to a low level after the omicron wave. Although cases are ticking up and more people are being hospitalized with the virus, fewer people are dying from it. The 353 hospitalizations reported by ODH in the past seven days (about 50 per day) are up from 296 last week and 314 two weeks ago. 57 more Ohioans died of COVID-19 in the past week, a decrease from 65 deaths last week, 68 deaths two weeks ago, 94 deaths three weeks ago, and 100 deaths a month ago. 6,527 Ohioans started the COVID-19 vaccination process in the past seven days, per ODH data. Another 6,749 finished vaccination by getting their second dose. Around 6 in 10 Ohioans are partially or fully vaccinated.5:28 AM

A rise in Covid cases in U.S. signals end of Omicron's reprieve -As the Omicron wave subsided in the United States earlier this year, many experts anticipated a sort of reprieve. We certainly weren’t done with Covid, but perhaps we would get a well-deserved rest.That break seems to be over. An increase in infections that began in places including the Northeast and Puerto Rico is now being seen in other parts of the country. Cases will rise and fall going forward, but more worryingly, hospitalizations have started to increase as well — up 20% over two weeks. The decline in deaths has bottomed out at some 350 a day.Epidemiologist David Dowdy of Johns Hopkins’ Bloomberg School of Public Health said that, despite the case increases, hospitalization and death rates overall remain relatively low compared with earlier periods in the pandemic — a reflection of how much immunity there is in the population.“In some ways, this is encouraging, in that we’re starting to see a divergence between the number of cases and the number of hospitalizations and deaths,” Dowdy said. “But it’s also a little bit discouraging that we’ve been through all this and we’re still seeing a flat line and an uptick in the number of people getting admitted to the hospital and in people dying.”To be sure, the U.S. is at a dramatically different point now in the pandemic than in earlier periods. Even as cases have increased — to 80,000 a day, up from less than 30,000 in late March — they’re still far below the heights of earlier this year, and started rising from very low levels. Vaccinations, and particularly booster shots, are continuing to provide broad protection against the worst outcomes of Covid-19, even as the virus keeps evolving. The growing availability of the antiviral Paxlovid is helping keep at-risk people from getting so sick they need to be hospitalized. The majority of people have at least some level of protection against Covid-19 — from vaccination, past infection, or both — meaning that cases, as Dowdy noted, are increasingly less likely to result in severe outcomes. And yet if there are more cases overall, some will still result in hospitalizations and deaths, even if at lower rates than earlier.

COVID Numbers NY: New COVID Variant Fuels Viral Spread, Breakthrough Cases Rise – The COVID-19 subvariant estimated by New York state health officials to be substantially more contagious than the first descendant of the potent omicron strain now accounts for up to 73.3% of all virus circulating in the region that encompasses the Empire State, according to new CDC data released Tuesday. Prevalence of BA.2.12.1, which health officials say appears to be at least 25% more transmissible than BA.2 (which is said to be more 30% more contagious than its predecessor, omicron), in the agency's New York region has been increasing at a far faster rate than nationally, the latest weekly update shows. The CDC puts it at 66.3% (at least) of COVID cases in the New York region, which for its purposes also includes New Jersey, Puerto Rico and the British Virgin Islands, though says BA.2.12.1's share of cases could be higher. Either way, that subvariant is the dominant strain locally, while the first omicron variant, BA.2., has retained its national dominance in recent weeks ( 56.4% of cases vs. 42.6% for BA.2.12.1). Given the latest trends, though, BA.2.12.1 should assert its dominance in the United States before the end of this month. While no scientific evidence to date links BA.2.12.1 to more severe COVID-linked illness or reduced vaccine efficacy at this point, the heightened transmissibility appears clear. New York state, for example, almost half of the 79 U.S. counties designated by the CDC as having a high COVID risk to the community. None of the high-risk U.S. counties, according to the CDC, are in New York City, but the five boroughs appear to be experiencing a trickle-down effect of sorts. All boroughs except for the Bronx, which has the second-lowest full vaccination rate among the five, are now considered medium COVID alert areas by the CDC. The NYC health department's variant tracker doesn't explicitly break out subvariant BA.2.12.1, but it does indicate BA.2-linked subvariants account for the overwhelming number of cases over the last month and a half or so. And COVID positivity rates in the city are rising in accordance with the heightened transmission, data shows. Many more BA.2.12.1 infections may go unreported. The share of positive COVID samples genomically sequenced to isolate variants is a fraction of the total confirmed cases. The city completed that exhaustive work for just 4% of its cases in the latest week of data and the state has cumulatively sequenced less (3.65%, per the CDC).

Massachusetts COVID Cases Are Rising: What You Should Know – - COVID-19 cases are surging once again in Massachusetts, with statewide and school numbers seeing large increases in recent days. And most counties in the state are now in the high risk category, the CDC says. This latest increase is being attributed to subvariants of omicron -- the "stealth" omicron variant BA.2, and the BA.2. 12.1 subvariant, which health officials say appears to be up to 27% more contagious than BA.2. However, there is no data to indicate it causes more serious illness. The subvariant now accounts for 40% of all virus circulating in New England, according to new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data released Tuesday. That largely mirrors what's been seen in New York of late, where a surge in BA.2. 12.1 cases has led to what they're calling the fifth wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Massachusetts health officials reported 5,576 new COVID-19 cases and 16 new deaths on Thursday. The last time there were over 5,000 new cases reported in a single day was at the end of January. The state reported 728 people hospitalized for COVID-19 Thursday, with 230 of them being primary cases. Of the total hospitalizations, 66 are in intensive care and 27 are intubated. Massachusetts' COVID metrics, tracked on the Department of Public Health's interactive coronavirus dashboard, have declined since the omicron surge, but case counts have been on an upward trajectory in recent weeks. For context, this is nowhere near the numbers seen at the height of the omicron surge in January, when average daily case counts reached over 28,000 and hospitalizations peaked at around 3,300. The state's seven-day average positivity rate increased to 8.24% Thursday, compared to 7.89% on Wednesday. And the community test positivity rate in Boston -- excluding colleges -- is now over 10%. COVID levels in wastewater, as reported by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority's tracking system are also increasing. It's important to note that the levels of virus seen in the wastewater remain nowhere near where they were during the peak of the omicron surge.

COVID is again spreading in California, increasing concerns - 9 as outbreaks increase and officials try to determine when this new wave will crest. Although case rates are climbing, experts note they are doing so at a more modest pace than the first Omicron surge, which began spiking in December. California’s per capita COVID-19 hospitalization rate is also lower than some states on the East Coast. But with Memorial Day, graduations, proms and other seasonal events on the horizon, officials are concerned about the upward trend worsening. “We are seeing more activity, and so it is time to break out your mask and break out your tests and just be a bit more cautious than maybe you were a month ago,” said Dr. Sara Cody, public health director and health officer for Santa Clara County. “Even if you got Omicron during the Omicron surge, you can still get COVID again, unfortunately.” California is reporting about 8,000 daily coronavirus cases in the last week, up 18% over the previous week’s tally of 6,800 cases a day. The statewide test positivity rate has climbed to 4%; a week ago it was 3%. Coronavirus-positive hospitalizations also have started to tick upward, but the number of patients needing intensive care has remained relatively stable, hovering near record lows for the pandemic. Health officials across the state widely agree that it’s prudent to take precautions when coronavirus transmission is high — including wearing masks in indoor public spaces, being up-to-date on vaccinations and boosters, and gathering outdoors when possible or increasing ventilation when meeting indoors. The San Francisco Bay Area has California’s highest coronavirus case rate — nearly double that of Southern California — and coronavirus levels in sewage for much of Silicon Valley have more than doubled over the last two weeks. “They’ve been steadily climbing for about a month, and they’re above what we saw at the height of Delta,” last summer’s dominant variant, Cody said of viral levels in wastewater. Coronavirus levels in wastewater also are increasing in Yolo County, home to UC Davis, said Dr. Alexander T. Yu, an epidemiologist and infectious diseases expert with the California Department of Public Health who briefed the California Medical Assn. on Tuesday. The upward trend, which began in March and was most prominent in the Bay Area, is now increasing in most regions, Yu said. There is, however, some suggestion that coronavirus levels in wastewater are starting to plateau in Orange County and San Francisco, Yu said. “At both sites, you can see that the rise in concentration appears to be tapering off and, hopefully, are starting to plateau,” he said.

COVID Florida: Cases reach pre-omicron levels, infections less severe - Coronavirus hospitalizations across Florida crept up past pre-omicron levels this week, but some measurements show the severity of the latest wave of infections remains near pandemic lows. Medical staff tended to 1,234 COVID-positive adult patients Friday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reported, the most recorded since March 10, and a greater amount than early December. About 10.5% of those patients ages 18 and older were in intensive care units, a smaller share than almost any point during the pandemic. Even as adult hospitalizations started rising in mid-April after the omicron-variant wave crashed, the percent of those patients in ICUs fell to about 10% later that month and has hovered at that level since. The ICU count was regularly higher than 20% before omicron engulfed the state in December. The state Agency for Health Care Administration said in January it would start reporting how many COVID-positive patients tested positive for the disease while being treated for something else, compared to how many are in the hospital because they tested positive for the coronavirus. AHCA, which oversees hospitals statewide, has not answered questions on when it will start reporting this distinction. Scientists and medical experts have said the current wave of cases — fueled by omicron subvariants — should be less severe than previous ones because most state residents have been vaccinated or infected by the original omicron strain.

Deaths from COVID begin to rise again - Deaths from COVID-19 are on the rise again after several weeks of upward ticking case rates sparked by Omicron variants. The U.S. averaged roughly 365 daily deaths, up 7% from about 342 two weeks ago. That's still a fraction of where things stood several months ago when the daily average was in the thousands. This week, the U.S. will likely reach 1 million deaths from COVID. As the milestone nears, President Biden said that "we must not grow numb to such sorrow. To heal, we must remember. We must remain vigilant against this pandemic and do everything we can to save as many lives as possible." The increase in deaths comes after several weeks of declines. While increasingly transmissible Omicron variants have generally not appeared to cause more serious illness, some people are still dying. Waning immunity and low booster uptake has also meant a growing share of the deaths are among the vaccinated, officials warn. By the numbers: There were roughly 77,000 new daily cases over the last week, up 44% from about 53,000 two weeks ago. Reported cases rates remained highest in the Northeast, with Rhode Island marking 67.3 new cases per 100,000 people, up from 38.4 per 100,000 two weeks ago. Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont and Maine were the four states with 50 or more new cases per 100,000 people over the last two weeks. On the flip side, 15 states reported having 10 or fewer new cases per 100,00o people over the same time, including Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, South Carolina, South Dakota and Wyoming. Five states reported declines in COVID case rates, including Montana, which reported 5.2 new cases per 100,000 people, down from 5.5 per 100,000 two weeks ago. Alaska, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Washington also reported dips. D.C. also reported a drop, however, the CDC said Wednesday the District had a two-week lapse in reporting, Axios' Chelsea Cirruzzo reports. As we've warned before, the data on new cases are getting less reliable as the public testing infrastructure continues to wind down and home test results are less likely to be reported to officials. But it still offers a window into the broad trends of COVID spread in the states. The bottom line: As variants spread, warm weather returns and more people let their guard down, cases are on the rise. While numbers appear far better than what they once were, officials warn the virus isn't done with us yet.

Serological testing suggests nearly half of Canadians and two-thirds of children under 10 have had COVID-19 - Serological testing by the British Columbia Centres for Disease Control (BC CDC) and Life Labs revealed that over 40 percent of the province’s population tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies in March. This staggering figure, up from 10 percent during a previous study in October, underscores how the more infectious Omicron variant and the ruling elite’s deliberate policy of letting the virus run rampant produced mass infection on an unprecedented scale. Perhaps the most concerning finding was the widespread infection of children. It found that over 60 percent of children surveyed tested positive for COVID antibodies, discrediting the often repeated lie that schools aren’t drivers of transmission. This lie, coupled with fraudulent claims that children are less likely to get infected, was used to keep schools open through successive waves of massive infection and death over the past two years, so parents could be freed from child care responsibilities and forced to work pumping out profits for big business. British Columbia, together with Alberta and Manitoba, are the three provinces with the highest serological test positivity rates, according to separate figures released last month by the Canadian Blood Service and Canada’s COVID-19 Immunity Task Force. The data showed that over 36 percent of young people aged 17 to 24 had had a COVID-19 infection by the end of February. These figures are revealing in that they show how British Columbia, a province governed by the supposedly “left” NDP, and Alberta, led by hard-right Premier Jason Kenney, who as late as June 2020 was describing COVID-19 as “the flu,” have pursued similar ruthless policies of mass infection and death throughout the pandemic. Given the continuing rampant spread of the virus in the two months since these figures were gathered, it is reasonable to assume that the true rate of infection is now approaching 50 percent. As Danuta Skowronski, an epidemiologist at the BC CDC who led its research, told CBC in late April, “It’s about one in two, almost, of our population that have had evidence of infection.”

North Korea announces first Covid deaths amid 'explosive' outbreak – CNN - North Korea has announced an "explosive" Covid-19 outbreak that has likely killed six people and infected more than 350,000, according to state media, prompting fears of an impending and deadly crisis in the isolated and impoverished nation. The announcement comes a day after the country reported its first ever coronavirus case, calling the situation a "major national emergency." On Thursday, North Korea reported 18,000 new "fever cases" and six deaths, one of which tested positive for the BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron, state media KCNA reported on Friday. North Korea has not confirmed that all "fever" cases and deaths are Covid-19, likely due to its limited testing capability. "A fever whose cause couldn't be identified explosively spread nationwide since late April," the newspaper said. "As of now up to 187,800 people are being isolated." An outbreak of Covid-19 could prove disastrous for North Korea. The country's dilapidated health care infrastructure is unlikely to be up to the task of treating a large number of patients with a highly infectious disease and the nation is not known to have imported any coronavirus vaccines. North Korea had not previously acknowledged any coronavirus cases, though few believe that a country of around 25 million people has been spared by a virus that has infected millions worldwide. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited the state emergency epidemic prevention headquarters on Thursday and acknowledged the spreading outbreak meant there was a "vulnerable point" in the country's epidemic prevention system, according to KCNA. In images of the meeting published by state media, Kim is seen wearing a surgical mask as he enters and leaves the meeting room. Officials accompanying him are also shown wearing masks throughout.

Taiwan Pivots From ‘Zero Covid’ as Beijing Doubles Down - The New York Times— Until recently, China and Taiwan were among the last places on earth to pursue a “zero Covid” policy of eliminating infections. For two years, they mostly succeeded in keeping the coronavirus out with tough border controls and rigorous contact tracing. Then came the highly transmissible Omicron variant. Faced with surging coronavirus cases, the two governments are now taking vastly different approaches. In China, the authorities are doubling down. They have imposed stringent lockdowns, mass testing and centralized quarantines for confirmed cases and close contacts. The glittering financial capital of Shanghai has been in a strict and punishing lockdown for more than a month to contain a large outbreak. In Taiwan, by contrast, the government is shifting from a strategy of elimination to one of mitigation. Despite soaring case counts, Taiwan is now allowing people with mild and asymptomatic infections to isolate at home instead of in hospitals. The government slashed the number of days in quarantine required of incoming travelers and people deemed close contacts. Officials are calling it a “new Taiwan model.”“We are now moving from zero Covid to the path of coexisting with the virus,” Chen Shih-chung, Taiwan’s health minister, said at a news briefing on Tuesday, adding that he expected Covid to become more “flulike” in nature. The government’s shift in approach reflects an acceptance of growing evidence that Omicron, while highly transmissible, is less deadly. It is also a recognition that pandemic measures such as quarantine requirements for travelers were stifling economic activity and eroding the island’s international competitiveness. “Even though their response has been a bit slow, they have responded to these voices and to scientific evidence,” said Chunhuei Chi, director of the Center for Global Health at Oregon State University and a former policy adviser to Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Administration. Under the new model, Taiwanese health officials say, they are shifting their focus from looking at total infections to “reducing disasters.” That means redirecting resources to focus on protecting the most vulnerable populations, like older adults and those with underlying conditions. The authorities are also putting more emphasis on vaccinations instead of quarantines and contact tracing.

Bird flu confirmed in Oregon, Washington – OPB -- An avian flu that’s spreading quickly across the U.S. has been detected in Oregon and Washington. Authorities said the discovery in Linn County, Oregon, involved at least three geese in a backyard flock in a rural area. Oregon state veterinarian Ryan Sholz said a person responsible for the geese acted quickly by contacting Oregon State University.“This case started over the last weekend, she lost three geese that exhibited neurologic and respiratory signs and then died suddenly,” Scholz said. “So she called us with that. And we received results back from OSU that there was avian influenza virus.”The presence of the highly contagious virus in Linn County, about 110 miles southeast of Portland, was confirmed Friday by federal officials after state officials conducted preliminary testing, the Oregon Department of Agriculture said in a statement.Washington officials confirmed avian flu in Pacific County, in a remote part of the state’s southern coast among a backyard population of chickens.Dr. Dana Dobbs, field veterinarian with the Washington Department of Agriculture, said she learned of the affected birds through a call to the state’s sick bird hotline.“The long and short of that was that the producer noticed that one day a crow flew in with some of his chickens,” Dobbs said Friday. “I think it was the next day, he literally described they were dropping like flies.”Dr. Kristin Mansfield, with the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, said there are at least three other suspected cases that investigators are trying to confirm in that state, including a bald eagle in Eastern Washington. The latest outbreak has led to the culling of about 37 million chickens and turkeys in U.S. farms since February, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed 956 cases of bird flu in wild birds, including at least 54 bald eagles. But the actual number is likely significantly higher because not every wild bird that dies is tested and the federal tally doesn’t include cases recorded by wildlife rehabilitation centers.

Bird flu infects millions of chickens in Md., Del. amid broader surge -- Roughly 3.2 million chickens have been confirmed positive with the bird flu at six farms in Maryland and Delaware over the past two months, agriculture officials said Friday, part of a broader problem with the virus that is quietly sweeping across the country. Eighty black vultures in Maryland’s Harford County also were recently found dead from the highly pathogenic avian influenza, officials said, near wildlife areas along the Susquehanna River. Maryland and Delaware agriculture authorities said they have had reports of chickens at the farms being infected with the bird flu since February. The vultures were found in the past two weeks. Thirty-seven million chickens and turkeys have been culled on U.S. farms since February because of the latest outbreak, according to the Agriculture Department, and roughly 950 cases of bird flu have been found in wild birds, including at least 54 bald eagles. In Virginia, officials said they detected bird flu in February among a “backyard flock” of roughly 90 turkeys, chickens and ducks in Fauquier County. There has been no bird flu detected in D.C., officials said. Advertisement “The numbers are just staggering in terms of the poultry,” said Charlie Broaddus, the state veterinarian in Virginia. One of the biggest factors in the bird flu’s spread this year, he said, is that it’s being carried by wild ducks and geese that are infected but “don’t typically become affected” by it. “They’re carriers,” Broaddus said, “but the genetic sequence has the potential to make domestic birds much, much sicker.” Broaddus said the larger farms that have hens producing eggs that “end up in the supermarket” tend to be large-scale operations, where the flu can spread quickly. Sometimes, he said, chickens at farms become infected when a farmer or worker “accidentally tracks through goose droppings near a pond” and then brings it into the chicken facility. “It takes just one to be infected before they spread it to others,”

Beyond Iowa, gruesome avian flu persists -- Since Iowa confirmed it latest case of the avian flu May 2 in a backyard flock in Bremer County, at least 16 other outbreaks in eight states have been reported, leading farmers to cull tens of thousands of chickens, turkeys and ducks to slow the spread of the disease, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. A bird flu virus that's sweeping across the United States has already claimed over 37 million poultry birds as a preventive measure. Although Iowa officials hope the worst this year may be over in the state as wild birds believed to spread the disease have mostly migrated, outbreaks continue around the county including culling nearly 119,000 turkeys in Minnesota and over 74,000 chickens in Pennsylvania, according to the USDA. Under guidance of the federal government, farms must destroy entire commercial flocks if just one bird tests positive for the virus. That's leading to distressing scenes across rural America. In Iowa, millions of animals in vast barns are suffocated in high temperatures or with poisonous foam. In Wisconsin, lines of dump trucks have taken days to collect masses of bird carcasses and pile them in unused fields. Neighbors live with the stench of the decaying birds. The crisis is hurting egg-laying hens and turkeys the most, with the disease largely being propagated by migrating wild birds that swarm above farms and leave droppings that get tracked into poultry houses. That's probably how the virus contaminated egg operations in Iowa, which produce liquid and powdered eggs that go into restaurant omelets or boxed cake mixes. Further north under the same migration paths lie Minnesota's turkey farms, which supply everything from deli meats for submarine sandwiches to whole birds for the holidays. Prices for such products are soaring to records, adding to the fastest pace of U.S. inflation in four decades. The supply deficits triggered by the flu also come as world food prices reach new highs. From the war in Ukraine to adverse weather for crops, it's all throwing supply chains into turmoil and compounding the crisis that's pushed millions of people into hunger since the start of the pandemic. "Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse, here comes the bird flu," said Karyn Rispoli, an egg market reporter at commodity researcher Urner Barry. The last time bird flu hit the United States in 2015, it took the lives of about 50 million animals by the end of the season and cost the federal government over $1 billion, as it handles killing and burying of birds. At the time, the industry beefed up its biosecurity around poultry houses, installing sound canons to repel wild birds, or even car washes so that farm trucks wouldn't bring contamination from one farm to another, so that there wouldn't be a repeat. This time around, even with that better biosecurity, the industry has failed to prevent the transmission from wild birds, said Michelle Kromm, an executive consultant for the Minnesota Turkey Growers Association. As a precaution, farmers are supposed to go through a laborious process of completely changing their clothing and shoes before entering barns, and making sure supplies and tools are clean.

Baby fox dies after testing positive for bird flu in Minnesota - A baby fox has tested positive for the bird flu in Minnesota, the first confirmed case in a wild mammal in the state, according to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). The young fox, commonly known as a kit, was found in Anoka County and died, as did two red fox kits in Ontario, Canada who tested positive for the avian flu last week. Those two were the first reported cases in a wild mammal in North America, according to the DNR. The University of Minnesota Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory alerted the DNR, which is entrusted with monitoring the health of the state’s wildlife population. The National Veterinary Services Laboratory later confirmed the kit's positive test earlier this week. The DNR routinely responds to reports of sick wildlife and conducts testing for many wildlife diseases. It will now add avian influenza to the routine screening process when foxes with neurological symptoms are submitted to the Minnesota Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory. This year’s bird flu strain is more aggressive and has caused more deaths in domestic poultry and wild birds than the previous strain in 2015. “Testing in Minnesota has confirmed HPAI in nearly 200 wild birds, including 19 species of birds, primarily waterfowl and raptors,” said Michelle Carstensen, the DNR’s wildlife health program supervisor. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other health officials have said the risk to the public remains low. “The best advice we have for Minnesotans is to avoid contact with wildlife that appear sick or injured and contact your health care provider if you are bitten or have other close contact with wildlife,” said Dr. Joni Scheftel, Minnesota Department of Health public health veterinarian.

Sage grouse struggle as BLM and states search for answers - The imperiled greater sage grouse, an iconic Western bird that federal and state regulators have been trying to protect for decades, may be running out of time. Sage grouse populations are dropping across much of the bird’s 11-state Western range, the result mostly of lost habitat due to a combination of severe drought, catastrophic wildfires and the spread of invasive plant species like cheatgrass that can overwhelm the sagebrush ecosystem the bird depends upon for survival. Things are particularly bad for the sage grouse in parts of California, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon and Utah, where populations have dropped — in some cases, dramatically — in the last six years, according to federal and state monitoring data. That has once again raised concerns among wildlife biologists and land management agencies that the Fish and Wildlife Service’s 2015 decision that Endangered Species Act protections for sage grouse were “not warranted” could soon be reversed. State and federal agencies are focused on this possibility, scrambling to develop and implement strategies to preserve the sagebrush habitat and, hopefully, save the bird. “The trends are going in the wrong direction for us to say we can somehow scientifically and legitimately support that ‘not warranted’ decision,” said Ed Arnett, a wildlife biologist and CEO of the Wildlife Society, a group of more than 11,000 wildlife professionals. There’s currently only about 26 million acres of core sagebrush habitat left where the native sagebrush is healthy and sage grouse are thriving. But that core habitat is disappearing at a rate of about 1.3 million acres a year, said San Stiver, sagebrush conservation initiative coordinator for the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies. If core habitat continues to decline at that annual rate, it will be cut down in half, to about 13 million acres, in the next 10 years, producing a dire situation where “it’s getting darn close to over” for the ecosystem, Stiver said.

Flying Insect Numbers Down Almost 60% in UK Car Windscreen Test - over the past decades? If so, you aren’t alone. Two conservation groups in the UK set out to test the oft-observed “windscreen phenomenon,” and the result was shocking: The number of flying insects landing on British cars fell by almost 60 percent in just 17 years. “This vital study suggests that the number of flying insects is declining by an average of 34% per decade, this is terrifying,” Buglife CEO Matt Shardlow said in a press release. “We cannot put off action any longer, for the health and wellbeing of future generations this demands a political and a societal response, it is essential that we halt biodiversity decline – now!” Buglife conducted the \2021 Bugs Matter report along with the Kent Wildlife Trust. The two groups set out to actually test the so-called “windscreen phenomenon” by asking citizen scientists to record how many bugs and other invertebrates ended up splattered on their license plates after a trip. Sky News explained the process: Before making an essential journey in their vehicle, drivers cleaned their number plate, and afterwards counted the insects squashed on it using a “splatometer grid” supplied as part of the survey. They then submitted a photo and count details via the Bugs Matter app and the data was converted into “splats per mile” to make it comparable between journeys. The research team looked at the “splats per mile” from 599 trips taken in Kent in 2019 and 3,348 trips made across the UK in 2021, the report said. They then compared the figures with data from a similar study conducted by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds in 2004. What they found was that the abundance of insects on license plates had declined by 58.5 percent between 2021 and 2004. The decline was observed across the UK, but was sharpest in England, at 65 percent, followed by Wales at 55 percent and Scotland at 27.9 percent. The researchers acknowledged that their findings were only based on two years, which could have been either unusually good or bad, The Guardian reported. However, the findings are consistent with a growing number of scientific studies showing an alarming decline in insect populations worldwide. Many insect populations are falling by one to two percent every year, or 10 to 20 percent each decade. This is a problem because insects are essential for pollinating food, recycling waste and contributing to the food web, according to AP News. Insects “are absolutely the fabric by which Mother Nature and the tree of life are built,” University of Connecticut entomologist David Wagner told AP News.

‘Forever chemicals’ coat the outer layers of biodegradable straws – EHN -More evidence that harmful PFAS chemicals are sneaking into some "green" and "compostable" products. John Bowden, an assistant professor at University of Florida's College of Veterinary Medicine, wasn't a fan of paper straws when they first gained popularity."They broke down in drinks really quickly," Bowden told EHN. "They fell apart in your mouth."But then the biodegradable market—plant- and paper-based straws—expanded, giving people more structurally sound plastic straw replacement options. People could dip them in a drink without having to pull out a soggy clump of paper. Bowden was skeptical. Oftentimes, companies will coat permeable products in per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), which are resistant to liquids.To investigate, Bowden and his lab tested 38 biodegradable straw brands purchased from Amazon in early 2020, and found 21 different PFAS chemicals. Thirty-six of the brands, which Bowden and his team kept anonymous, had detectable PFAS.Their recent study, published in Chemosphere, showed that some companies who market their straws as "biodegradable" may be misleading the public. PFAS chemicals do not break down in the environment, because of their carbon-fluorine bond, one of the "strongest bonds in chemistry," Bowden said."They're very persistent, they repel water, those properties make it very difficult for them to break down," Bowden said. "If PFAS are on it, I would not consider that biodegradable."People may be adding to their PFAS exposure by using a supposedly environmentally friendly straw option.

20 Million Acres of U.S. Cropland May Be Contaminated by PFAS ‘Forever Chemicals’ - Toxic per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances, known as PFAS or “forever chemicals,” are a family of more than 9,000 synthetic, human-made chemicals that barely break down in the natural environment, according to CHEM Trust. PFAS are used to make products water-, heat- or stain-resistant, The Guardian reported. Very low amounts of these forever chemicals in drinking water have been linked to a higher risk of cancer, immunosuppression, interference with the reproductive system and other health problems, according to the Environmental Working Group (EWG). Forever chemicals are found in thousands of products, from disposable and fast-food packaging to popcorn bags, takeout containers, pre-made cakes, pizza boxes and products like nonstick cookware, carpets, waterproof clothing, sunscreen, cosmetics and mattresses, CHEM Trust reported. PFAS have been detected in wildlife and people all over the world. \ Almost all Americans have PFAS in their blood, reported EWG. Since the chemicals don’t break down naturally, they often end up in the sewer system. Now, a new EWG report estimates that around 20 million acres of U.S. cropland could be contaminated by sewage sludge tainted by these forever chemicals. Also known as “biosolids,” sewage sludge is solid organic matter from wastewater treatment plants that is sometimes used as fertilizer. Main sources of industrial wastewater are power plants that run on fossil fuels, especially coal-fired plants. Federal regulations that require biosolids to be tested for metals discharged from many of these plants don’t require testing for PFAS. Industrial discharges that go into wastewater treatment plants and rivers accumulate in the sludge, which is then used to fertilize crops, reported EWG. According to an EWG estimate using state data, five percent of all cropland could be using sewage sludge as fertilizer, reported EWG. State reports submitted to the EPA have said that 19.1 billion pounds of biosolids have been applied to farm fields since 2016. Florida, California and Illinois produced the most sewage sludge to be used on farm fields.PFAS are thought to be present in all sewage sludge, according to The Guardian.“Once PFAS-contaminated sludge is applied as a fertilizer, the chemicals can build up in food crops, feed crops such as corn and hay, and the animals that eat these feed crops. … These forever chemicals can also contaminate irrigation water,” reported EWG.

Fertilizer turning Europe’s farms into massive reservoirs of microplastics - The sludge that is created through sewage treatment processes is rich in nutrients like phosphorous and nitrogen, making it an excellent source of fertilizer for agriculture. But not all that it contains is good for the environment, with a new study demonstrating how the material acts as a vehicle for huge amounts of tiny plastic fragments to enter soils, so much so the authors suggest Europe's farms could be acting as the world's largest reservoir for microplastics pollution.Sewage sludge serves as an appealing and sustainable source of fertilizer, for both large-scale agriculture operations and home gardeners. But studies are starting to illustrate that its contents may not be entirely benign, neither for the environment or living organisms.A study published last year that analyzed home fertilizer products found unsafe levels of toxic PFAS "forever chemicals" in every sample. That research found that typical sewage treatment methods don't break down these persistent chemicals, and as sludge is widely applied to lands across the US, it introduces huge amounts of them to food crops and waterways.This new study was carried out by scientists at Cardiff University and the University of Manchester and focused on the farmlands of Europe, and the risks posed to them by fertilizers made from sewage sludge. The work involved analyzing samples from a wastewater plant in Newport, South Wales, which treats sewage from a population of around 300,000.This showed that the plant was collecting larger plastic particles between 1 and 5 mm in size with a 100-percent strike rate, preventing them from slipping through into the waterways. Each gram of the sewage sludge created through this process, however, was then found to contain up to 24 microplastic particles, amounting to around one percent of its total weight.The scientists then extrapolated on this by using data on the use of sewage sludge as a fertilizer across the continent from the European Commission and Eurostat. This indicated that somewhere between 31,000 and 42,000 tonnes of microplastics, or many trillions of particles, are being applied to the soils of Europe each year. According to the authors, this rivals the concentration of microplastics in the surface waters of the ocean.“Our research questions whether microplastics are in fact being removed at wastewater treatment plants at all, or are effectively being shifted around the environment,” said lead author of the study James Lofty, from Cardiff University’s School of Engineering. “A clear lack of strategy from water companies to manage microplastics in sewage sludge means these contaminants are transported back into the soil and will eventually return to the aquatic environment.”The findings offer new insights into the way microplastics migrate around the environment, but perhaps aren't all that surprising in light of recent research in the area. A 2018 study found microplastics in human stool samples all around the world, and we've also seen scientists discover plastic particles in the human bloodstream and deep in the lungs for the first time. Other research has demonstrated how microplastics in wastewater treatment plants can foster the growth of superbugs, and how they can carry dangerous pathogens far out to sea.

More human remains discovered at Lake Mead - A drought has exposed at least two bodies inside Nevada’s Lake Mead as water levels continue to recede in America’s largest reservoir.The National Park Service said in a Saturday release that a witness reported skeletal remains at Callville Bay on the northwestern shore of Lake Mead, located in Clark County. “Park rangers responded to the call and are on scene to set a perimeter and recover the remains,” the park service said. “The Clark County Medical Examiner has been contacted to determine the cause of death.”The report comes just days after Las Vegas police said they discovered a barrel containing the remains of a person they believe was killed in the late ’70s to early ’80s based on the clothing. A more detailed coroner’s report is forthcoming.Lake Mead was created by the construction of the Hoover Dam in the 1930s. The reservoir is connected to the stem of the Colorado River. A 20-year drought has dried up the lake, with water levels falling more than 150 feet since 2000, according to the Southern Nevada Water Authority.

California To Hire "Water Cops" As Residents Ignore Newsom's Conservation Plea Amid Megadrought -- California plans to hire "water cops" to monitor people and businesses wasting water as statewide usage soared in March despite Gov. Gavin Newsom declaring a drought emergency last July and parts of Southern California under water restrictions, according to The Mercury News. The Santa Clara Valley Water District, south of the San Francisco Bay Area, encompassing 15 cities and more than 2 million residents, is considering "water cops" to police neighborhoods and business districts for water wasters. People who are wasting water could be fined up to $500. Water cops may slap citations for people watering their yards for long periods of time and washing cars in the driveway. Aaron Baker, the COO of Valley Water, told CBS News that water cops are "needed because of the unprecedented times we're in, and because we aren't making enough progress on our water savings." The threat of water cops snooping on people comes as California's total water usage in March was the most since 2015 despite calls for conservation amid a megadrought. California Water Resources Control Board said water usage jumped 19% compared to March 2020. On a regional basis, Bay Area was up 2.5% in March YoY. Soaring demand was primarily in Southern California: Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties jumped 26.9%. Californians aren't listening to the state government, even with Newsom's drought emergency deceleration last July. This could be problematic because a dry spring and lack of statewide mandatory conservation standards, with forecasts for a scorching summer, may suggest the water crisis could worsen.

Lawns are the No. 1 irrigated ‘crop’ in America. They need to die. -- The privilege of homeownership is increasingly rare these days, and I wanted to make sure my little plot of land would have a net benefit to my city and the environment. My city, St. Paul, Minnesota, bills itself as “the most liveable city in America.” I want to help make that statement a bit more true. My strategy: Rip out my grass lawn as soon as possible. Lawns do provide some benefits: Green spaces help reduce theurban heat island effect, lowering the temperature of the entire metro area. Lawns can help restore groundwater and reduce urban flooding, and because they’re plants, they help pull a small amount of carbon dioxide out of the air. Plus, they are generally pleasing places to play. But, on balance, lawns are awful for the planet. Our addiction to lawns means that grass is the single largest irrigated agricultural “crop” in America, more than corn, wheat, and fruit orchards combined. A NASA-led study in 2005 found that there were 63,000 square miles of turf grass in the United States, covering an area larger than Georgia. Keeping all that grass alive can consume about 50-75 percent of a residence’s water. Lawnmowers suck up gas and pollute the air: Every year, U.S. homeowners spill some 17 million gallons of gas while filling up mowers. We use tens of millions of pounds of chemical fertilizer and pesticides on our lawns. All this effort, of course, isn’t cheap. Americans spend more than $36 billion every year on lawn care, four-and-a-half times more than the annual budget of the Environmental Protection Agency. American lawns have so, so much potential — and right now, it’s going to waste. It’s time to culturally stigmatize the classic over-watered, over-fertilized, over-mowed American lawn — a symbol of excess that’s persisted for far too long.

Where Lawns Are Outlawed (and Dug Up, and Carted Away) - With drought and growth taking a toll on the Colorado River, the source of 90 percent of the region’s water, a new law in Las Vegas mandates the removal of turf, patch by patch. — It was a perfectly decent patch of lawn, several hundred square feet of grass in a condominium community on this city’s western edge. But Jaime Gonzalez, a worker with a local landscaping firm, had a job to do.Wrangling a heavy gas-powered sod cutter, Mr. Gonzalez sliced the turf away from the soil underneath, like peeling a potato. Two co-workers followed, gathering the strips for disposal.Mr. Gonzalez took little pleasure in destroying this patch of fescue. “But it’s better to replace it with something else,” he said. The ground would soon be covered with gravel dotted with plants like desert spoon and red yucca.Under a state law passed last year that is the first of its kind in the nation, patches of grass like this, found along streets and at housing developments and commercial sites in and around Las Vegas, must be removed in favor of more desert-friendly landscaping.The offense? They are “nonfunctional,” serving only an aesthetic purpose. Seldom, if ever, walked on and kept alive by sprinklers, they are wasting a resource, water, that has become increasingly precious.Outlawing grass is perhaps the most dramatic effort yet to conserve water in the Southwest, where decades of growth and 20 years of drought made worse by a warming climate have led to dwindling supplies from the Colorado River, which serves Nevada and six other states, Native American tribes and Mexico.For Southern Nevada, home to nearly 2.5 million people and visited by upward of 40 million tourists a year, the problem is particularly acute. The region depends on Lake Mead, the nearby reservoir behind Hoover Dam on the Colorado, for 90 percent of its drinking water.

 Interior announces funding for 46 water infrastructure projects -- The Biden administration will allocate funding to improve water infrastructure in 46 projects across 11 states, the Interior Department announced Monday. The funding will comprise $240.4 million through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and will incorporate projects such as canal lining repairs and upgrades and replacements to water pipelines. The 46 selected projects include canal repair projects in Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming as well as pipeline repairs in Utah and dam spillway repairs in Nebraska, according to the department. “President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law is making a historic investment in drought resilience and water infrastructure,” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in a statement. “As western communities face growing challenges accessing water in the wake of record drought, these investments in our aging water infrastructure will safeguard community water supplies and revitalize water delivery systems.” “The Bureau of Reclamation, in partnership with states and local water districts receiving municipal water and irrigation water from federally-owned projects, is responsible for much of the water infrastructure in the West,” added acting Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner David Palumbo. “These water systems work because of this federal to non-federal partnership, and this funding will help to complete necessary extraordinary maintenance keeping projects viable and partnerships strong.” The infrastructure law puts a total of about $10 billion toward water infrastructure and drought resilience measures. The announcement comes amid signs of a worsening drought in the American Southwest. In its most recent weekly summary, the U.S. Drought Monitor said more than 98 percent of the region is in some stage of drought. California’s two biggest reservoirs are “critically low,” while in the Colorado River Basin, Lake Powell is under 25 percent capacity and Lake Mead is at 31 percent of capacity. The Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico, part of the Rio Grande Basin, is even lower at 13 percent full, according to the monitor. TAGS

Senate Panel Advances Water Infrastructure Bill -- Legislation designed to enhance funding for the country’s commercial waterways was easily approved by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee this month. Senate transportation policymakers unanimously backed the Water Resources Development Act of 2022, or WRDA, on May 4. The bill would specifically approve dozens of new U.S. Army Corps of Engineers construction projects and feasibility studies. The measure is meant as a response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks, which are credited with slowing down certain freight movement at commercial ports. Additionally, the bill would approve programs on flooding, navigation and environmental reviews under the purview of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. “The importance of investing in and revitalizing our water infrastructure cannot be understated. From the waterways that deliver goods to the Port of Wilmington to the beaches protecting our coastal communities, our water resources are core to our way of life,” Committee Chairman Tom Carper (D-Del.) said on May 4. “This year’s reauthorization of the Water Resources Development Act would authorize the modification of existing and construction of new, critical Army Corps projects in Delaware and throughout the country: Projects that will significantly improve quality of life, create good-paying jobs and protect communities against the threats of climate change.” “For example, we are authorizing a significant project for coastal storm risk management on the coast of Texas that will ensure critical port assets can continue to serve our country’s shipping and supply chain needs moving forward,” added Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), the committee’s ranking member. She explained: “This project will help mitigate the worst impacts of hurricanes for local communities, and it will also provide a vital corridor for our nation’s energy industry.” On the House side, transportation policy leaders have indicated they are finalizing their version of the water infrastructure package. The legislation would aim to address concerns associated with commerce as well as climate change. .

EPA water guidance roils industry, enviros - Environmental groups are clashing with some of the nation’s largest water lobbying groups over guidance EPA is finalizing that will determine the scope and pace at which communities — especially low-income areas — must pay for required upgrades to halt pollution.At issue is EPA’s proposed 2022 Financial Capability Assessment Guidance, which the agency unveiled in February and sources say could be finalized in the coming months. The comment period for the guidance closed on April 25.The assessment is essentially a tool that EPA uses to appraise water pollution control costs relative to a community’s overall economic resources. Doing so helps EPA evaluate a community’s ability to develop a plan for water infrastructure upgrades.On one hand, the water sector is opposing the new guidance and calling for EPA to revert back to the guidance issued in 2021 under the Trump administration.The National Association of Clean Water Agencies, or NACWA, the nation’s largest group of publicly owned wastewater treatment facilities, joined the American Water Works Association and the Water Environment Federation in April 25comments to EPA in warning that the newest iteration of the guidance threatens to undermine Biden’s equity goals and put too much burden on low-income communities to pay for new upgrades.In arguing for the Trump-era plan, the groups say it provides two methodologies for assessing financial capabilities; it includes the “lowest quintile residential income indicator in a framework that supported meaningful decision-criteria; and it represents a “straight-forward evolution of current enforcement practices.”Nathan Gardner-Andrews, chief advocacy and policy officer for NACWA, said the concern with the current version is that it continues to hide the manner in which the poorest households pay a higher proportion of their income for clean water investments, and the groups are trying to get EPA to more accurately address that.And yet groups like the Natural Resources Defense Council have applauded EPA’s proposed changes and argued the new policy would expedite investments that benefit environmental justice communities, without making bills for essential sewer service unaffordable to low-income households.

West Virginia declares a state of emergency due to significant flooding - (videos) West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice declared the State of Emergency for Cabell, Putnam, and Roane counties on May 7, 2022, due to heavy rainfall that caused significant local flooding. On May 8, the declaration was expanded to include the counties of Ohio, Marshall, Wetzel, Marion, Monongalia, Harrison, Taylor and Tucker. A severe rainstorm caused flooding, power outages, and road blockages in parts of West Virginia on May 6, resulting in the death of at least 1 person. One of the worst affected areas was the city of Huntington where a large-scale flooding event caused severe damage and disruption of utility services. Mayor of the city, Steve Williams, declared a local state of emergency, saying that it’s a critical step to ensure that recovery and funding resources are delivered quickly. “It also is a vital step in raising public awareness about the severity of this unprecedented flood event, which has resulted in several inches of rain during a short period of time,” Williams said. With the declaration of the State of Emergency, the West Virginia Governor has authorized the West Virginia Division of Emergency Management to support local counties and to use all State resources necessary.The State Emergency Operations Center is coordinating with officials in the declaration area to determine their needs.The State of Emergency will remain in effect for thirty days unless terminated by subsequent Proclamation.Major flooding occurring in Roane County. #WVwx pic.twitter.com/4ky3x2Kbbg— Eli (@Elicaldwell) May 6, 2022 Tidal flooding will likely continue through Tuesday, especially over DC as freshwater moves in from the upstream Potomac River. River flooding also continues through the day. Today will be milder with more sunshine after a couple dreary days. #MDwx #VAwx #DCwx #WVwxpic.twitter.com/QlFTFk30aX— NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) May 9, 2022

Drowning in dirt: How homebuilders are making floods worse -The soul of Pensacola Florida lives in the Tanyard, a 200-year-old neighborhood so steeped in history that locals give it an extra capital “T” — as in “The Tanyard.” The Tanyard occupies some of the lowest ground in a city that has been hit by nine hurricanes since 1975, most recently Sally in 2020. Looking forward, rising seas could swell nearby Pensacola Bay by 12 inches in less than 30 years — meaning a 6-foot storm surge would put the entire Tanyard underwater, according to modeling from ClimateCheck, an analytics firm, for E&E News. The fill dirt threat is more gradual and arguably more insidious. Its first waves already are being felt as 15-ton dump trucks ply the Tanyard’s streets to deliver loads of fill dirt to freshly cleared construction sites. Elected officials and like-minded developers envision a revived neighborhood of nearly 2,000 new residential units replete with green space, bike paths and other amenities — all within walking distance of downtown and Pensacola Bay. When graded and packed, the fill material becomes elevated lots on which developers can build “flood-proofed” single and multifamily homes. These fill-and-build houses are popping up like palmettos in the Tanyard, fetching upward of a half-million dollars from house hunters looking to buy near the bay. Environmentalists, who describe the elevated lots as “fill and build,” warn the practice is more dangerous than it looks. They say stormwater running off the higher lots inundates neighboring homes and streets — effectively raising a community’s flood risk and putting longtime residents at even greater peril from hurricanes and extreme storms. “A lot of people are angry. They’re going to flood us all out of here,” said Marilynn Wiggins, president of the Tanyard Community Neighborhood Association. The group, formed in 2005, has rallied against new development they say is eroding the neighborhood’s historic character and compromising flood security for longstanding residents. Wiggins, who lives in the home her parents bought in the 1950s, has seen firsthand the destruction a flood can bring to the neighborhood. When Hurricane Sally, bearing 120-mph winds and a 6-foot storm surge, battered Pensacola in 2020, she said water rose above her elevated front porch. “Nobody should be forced to move out of the place where they’ve lived their whole lives,” she said. Pensacola is just one example of how “fill and build” has become a vehicle for homebuilders to develop older waterfront neighborhoods and once undesirable lowlands near rivers and oceans — often at great risk to residents who have lived for years in those communities. The trend is evident in Texas and other Gulf Coast states, as well as in South Florida and up the Atlantic coast. In some places, fill and build is viewed as a climate adaptation strategy. But critics call it a case study in “maladaptation,” where actions to mitigate climate change impacts for some people increase vulnerability for others. “Fill and build is not a solution to anything. Fill and build is the problem,” said Steve Emerman, a hydrologist and consultant to the Anthropocene Alliance, a coalition of small community organizations fighting the practice in Pensacola and elsewhere.

Don’t dismiss soil: its unknowable wonders could ensure the survival of our species -Monbiot -Beneath our feet is an ecosystem so astonishing that it tests the limits of our imagination. It’s as diverse as a rainforest or a coral reef. We depend on it for 99% of our food, yet we scarcely know it. Soil.Under one square metre of undisturbed ground in the Earth’s mid-latitudes(which include the UK) there might live several hundred thousand small animals. Roughly 90% of the species to which they belong have yet to be named. One gram of this soil – less than a teaspoonful – contains around a kilometre of fungal filaments.When I first examined a lump of soil with a powerful lens, I could scarcely believe what I was seeing. As soon as I found the focal length, it burst into life. I immediately saw springtails – tiny animals similar to insects – in dozens of shapes and sizes. Round, crabby mites were everywhere: in some soils there are half a million in every square metre.Then I began to see creatures I had never encountered before. What I took to be a tiny white centipede turned out, when I looked it up, to be a different life form altogether, called a symphylid. I spotted something that might have stepped out of a Japanese anime: long and low, with two fine antennae at the front and two at the back, poised and sprung like a virile dragon or a flying horse. It was a bristletail, or dipluran.As I worked my way through the lump, again and again I found animals whose existence, despite my degree in zoology and a lifetime immersed in natural history, had been unknown to me. After two hours examining a kilogram of soil, I realised I had seen more of the major branches of the animal kingdom than I would on a week’s safari in the Serengeti.

Villagers aghast after swarm of worms surrounds home - If the sight of creepy-crawly earthworms isn't for you, then thank your lucky stars you didn't find yourself in Tak, Thailand, this week. On Tuesday morning, Tak residents woke up to a scene straight out of a horror movie, except it played out on driveways and front yards rather than on a silver screen. The thousands of worms made their swarming appearance in one front yard following a deluge of rain showers on April 19. Video footage shared by KameraOne showed the piles of the roughly 6-inch-long earthworms crawling over each other and slinking along sidewalks in the northwestern Thailand province. As the camera pans across the front yard and over the driveway, a seemingly endless swarm of worms can be seen. The video goes on to show a local villager pointing at the worms in seeming disbelief. According to reports, some villagers worried the swarm of worms could be a sign of bad things to come. Perhaps not surprisingly, the worm swarm was preceded by heavy rainfall. AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff said that in a 24-hour period prior to when the video was shot, Tak picked up "3.13 inches (79.6 mm) of rainfall as heavy thunderstorms moved through the region." While it's not exactly known why earthworms emerge from underground habitats following a rainstorm, experts have speculated that the emergence may be a life-saving measure. According to researchers at Penn State University, earthworms absorb and lose moisture through their skin and can live under submerged water conditions as long as the oxygen content of the water is high enough. "In most cases, however, earthworms will die when exposed to excessive waterlogging," researchers wrote. "They move to the surface when the soil is saturated to avoid suffocation." Earlier in the month, earthworms made a newsworthy appearance in a different Thailand province. In the southwestern corner of the country, a peculiar, circular ring of wriggling worms was captured on film. According to experts, the worms were fungus gnat larvae, and they form a circular pattern with each other in order to protect against predators. Those worms, which were seen on April 12 in the province of Trang, also emerged after nearly an inch of rain (23 mm) fell on April 11 and April 12.

 Corals and Sea Anemones Turn Sunscreen into Toxins— Researchers have long suspected that an ingredient in sunscreen called oxybenzone was harming corals, but no one knew how. A new study shows how corals turn oxybenzone into a sunlight-activated toxin. Sunscreen bottles are frequently labeled as “reef-friendly” and “coral-safe.” These claims generally mean that the lotions replaced oxybenzone—a chemical that can harm corals—with something else. But are these other chemicals really safer for reefs than oxybenzone? This question led us, two environmental chemists, to team up with biologists who study sea anemones as a model for corals. Our goal was to uncover how sunscreen harms reefs so that we could better understand which components in sunscreens are really “coral-safe.” Coral reefs around the world have suffered in recent decades from warming oceans and other stressors. Some scientists thought that sunscreens coming off of swimmers or from wastewater discharges could also be harming corals. They conducted lab experiments that showed that oxybenzone concentrations as low as 0.14 mg per liter of seawater can kill 50% of coral larvae in less than 24 hours. While most field samples typically have lower sunscreen concentrations, one popular snorkeling reef in the U.S. Virgin Islands had up to 1.4 mg oxybenzone per liter of seawater—more than 10 times the lethal dose for coral larvae. Likely inspired by this research and a number of other studies showing damage to marine life, Hawaii’s legislators voted in 2018 to ban oxybenzone and another ingredient in sunscreens. Soon after, lawmakers in other places with coral reefs, like the Virgin Islands, Palau and Aruba, implemented their own bans. Some studies suggested that oxybenzone mimics hormones, disrupting reproduction and development. But another theory that our team found particularly intriguing was the possibility that the sunscreen behaved as a light-activated toxin in corals. To test this, we used the sea anemones our colleagues breed as a model for corals. Sea anemones and corals are closely related and share a lot of biological processes, including a symbiotic relationship with algae that live within them. We put 21 anemones in test tubes full of seawater under a lightbulb that emits the full spectrum of sunlight. We covered five of the anemones with a box made of acrylic that blocks the exact wavelengths of UV light that oxybenzone normally absorbs and interacts with. Then we exposed all the anemones to 2 mg of oxybenzone per liter of seawaterWe ran the experiment for 21 days. On Day Six, the first anemone in the light group died. By Day 17, all of them had died. By comparison, none of the five anemones in the dark group died during the entire three weeks.We were surprised that a sunscreen was behaving as a phototoxin inside the anemones. We ran a chemical experiment on oxybenzone and confirmed that, on its own, it behaves as a sunscreen and not as a phototoxin. It’s only when the chemical was absorbed by anemones that it became dangerous under light.

Watch: Beach Houses In Outer Banks Swept Into Ocean - A wild storm furiously churned over the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Tuesday and resulted in the collapse of two oceanfront homes. One of the collapses was caught on video. The National Park Service tweeted a shocking video of waves crashing ashore in Rodanthe, snapping the wood pilings that held up a single-family beach house as it fell into the ocean and was swept out to sea. Cape Hatteras National Seashore (Seashore) has confirmed that an unoccupied house at 24265 Ocean Drive, Rodanthe, N.C. collapsed this afternoon. This is the second unoccupied house collapse of the day at the Seashore. Read more: https://t.co/ZPUiklQAWA pic.twitter.com/OMoPNCpbzk A beach house at 24235 Ocean Drive in the same area collapsed hours before because of heavy surf. There was no video of the collapse. The National Weather Service at Newport/Morehead said the storm "that been hanging around the last few days makes its closest pass to us tonight before it finally sinks south."This pesky low that's been hanging around the last few days makes its closest pass to us tonight before it finally sinks south.Conditions improve tomorrow before we enter a wetter pattern (that will hopefully bring some much needed rain) to end the week pic.twitter.com/8AVfIZb25M" Unfortunately, there may be more houses that collapse onto Seashore beaches in the near future," David Hallac, superintendent, National Parks of Eastern North Carolina, told local news WAVY.

How less air pollution makes hurricanes stronger - Hurricane activity is shifting worldwide in large part because of climate change. Cyclones are getting stronger, intensifying faster, dumping more rain and migrating into different regions of the oceans. But global warming isn’t the only human activity at play. Air pollution also has a significant influence on hurricane formation, according to a new study.. Over the past four decades, air pollution has declined in Europe and the United States with the adoption of stronger air quality regulations. And it’s had an unexpected side effect. Decreasing pollution has caused an increase in tropical cyclone frequency across the North Atlantic. At the same time, pollution levels have risen across much of South and East Asia. And that’s had an unexpected influence as well. Tropical cyclone activity has declined across the western North Pacific. The new study isn’t the first to suggest a link between air pollution and hurricane activity. It’s well known that aerosols have a physical impact on the atmosphere. Much of the pollution commonly produced by industrial activities actually has a cooling effect on the atmosphere, reflecting sunlight away from the Earth. In some cases, this effect can also alter the flow of air currents around the world. Still, the new research, published yesterday by NOAA cyclone expert Hiroyuki Murakami, is one of the first to investigate the specific physical links between aerosols and hurricanes all over the globe, with the help of climate models. In the North Atlantic, he found declining pollution levels had several effects. As the cooling influence fell away, temperatures rose. Warmer ocean water provides more fuel for hurricane formation, resulting in more storms. At the same time, the warming also altered atmospheric circulation and reduced wind shear in the North Atlantic — changes in wind speed or direction that can inhibit the formation of storms. As a result, the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes grew. Murakami also suggests that the warming in the Atlantic may have had even farther-reaching effects. The study suggests that cyclone frequency decreased in some parts of the Southern Hemisphere, like the area around Australia. Declining air pollution in the Atlantic region may have affected a major global atmospheric circulation pattern in such a way that it suppressed hurricane formation in the Southern Hemisphere. In the western North Pacific, on the other hand, increasing pollution levels had a different kind of influence. They had a cooling effect on the Asian continent, which caused a weakening of the region’s monsoon winds. The result: a decrease in the formation of tropical cyclones. The research doesn’t suggest that reducing pollution is a bad thing. Declining pollution is associated with a myriad of health benefits and reduces deaths linked to poor air quality. Rather, the study notes that human activities can have a variety of unintended or unexpected side effects — and that communities should be prepared to confront them.

‘Potentially historic’ wildfire event threatens New Mexico, Southwest - Critical-to-extreme wildfire conditions are about to take hold of the southwestern United States and parts of Colorado, leading into what could be a lengthy, multiday and memorable outbreak of wildfires and/or wildfire conditions. Warm to locally scorching temperatures, bone-dry air and strong mountain gusts are set to overlap for several days, part of a summerlike weather pattern that comes without the chance of any meaningful rainfall. The National Weather Service in Albuquerque is calling it a “dangerous, long duration and potentially historic critical fire weather event.” Tinderbox conditions conducive to the rapid spread of blazes are expected to persist well into next week. Sunday may present the most extreme combination of high winds and hot, dry air.On May 4, President Biden declared the Calf Canyon fire, now the state's second-largest fire on record, a major disaster. (Video: John Farrell/The Washington Post) “New Mexico is facing 100 straight hours of the worst possible set of fire conditions, with high temperatures & extreme winds,” tweeted Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) on Friday. “It is critically important to abide by evacuation orders. Your life & safety is top priority.”As it is, a number of ongoing fires will continue to burn and be made worse by this weekend’s weather. New ignitions are also anticipated, which could rapidly grow out of control.Earlier this week, the Calf Canyon fire became New Mexico’s second-largest on record. In late April, it merged with the Hermit’s Peak fire just to the east, a prescribed burn that crews lost control of amid strong winds. The cause of the Calf Canyon blaze is under investigation. Located in the higher terrain east of Santa Fe in Mora and San Miguel counties, the Calf Canyon fire has already torched 170,665 acres and is 21 percent contained. More than 1,400 personnel from three states are actively involved in combating the blaze, which has destroyed at least 276 structures and forced an estimated 4,000-plus evacuations.Andy Lyon, public information officer with the Southwest Incident Management Team, told The Washington Post that 15,000 residences could be threatened over the weekend all the way around the perimeter of the fire.Large fires are raging in New Mexico, and the worst may be comingThe Calf Canyon fire is among six large blazes burning in New Mexico. The fires prompted President Biden to declare a major disaster for parts of the state Wednesday so that federal assistance can reach affected residents.Red-flag warnings, for dangerous fire weather conditions, cover all of New Mexico, as well as west Texas, eastern and northern Arizona, southern Nevada, the Inland Empire and deserts of California and much of southern and eastern Colorado.

New Mexico wildfire puts spotlight on use of prescribed burns - A wildfire that’s burned nearly 190,000 acres in New Mexico may become the next talking point in the debate over the use of fire in managing national forests. The Hermits Peak Fire near Las Vegas, N.M., started as a prescribed burn by the Forest Service, which has been increasingly turning to the practice to carefully reduce underbrush and other potential wildfire fuel in national forests. But the agency’s inability to keep this one in check is already leading to second-guessing. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) told E&E News he’ll support additional oversight to find out how the intentional fire grew out of hand and to clarify Forest Service policy on the use of prescribed fire — a tool he has supported in the past and which some other lawmakers are trying to boost through legislation, the “National Prescribed Fire Fire Act” (S. 1734). The Forest Service said it ignites 4,500 prescribed fires annually, although the great majority are not in the West or Southwest. “Prescribed fire is a really powerful tool,” Heinrich said Friday. “But if you screw it up just once, you can lose the social license to use it at all. So we have to have rules that the public can trust.” In this case, the Forest Service said, a prescribed fire in the Pecos/Las Vegas Ranger District was declared a wildfire on April 6. The fire was initially conducted in appropriate weather conditions, which unexpectedly turned windy and caused multiple spot fires that spread outside the boundary of the prescribed burn. Because the fire is under review, a Forest Service spokesperson said, the agency can’t comment on the details of the prescribed burn, including whether the agency thinned the area before igniting the fire — a step that forest managers say is usually needed to keep it under control. That the prescribed burn was allowed in the first place spurred questions from Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.), who described herself as “outraged” in a letter to Forest Service Chief Randy Moore last Thursday. “The removal of deadwood and other fuel biomass through prescribed burns is a necessary tool to prevent wildfires, but it should only be done in the safest conditions,” she said. “Northern New Mexico had an extremely dry winter, is in a prolonged drought and is currently experiencing a warm spring with erratic winds.” She added, “These conditions are not rare during spring in New Mexico. I, and many in the local communities, were shocked that the Forest Service would perform a prescribed burn during these conditions.”

Calf Canyon fire in New Mexico spreads as strong winds blow - The Washington Post— Strong winds continued into the day Sunday, helping spread the second-largest wildfire on record in New Mexico farther into small farming communities in the state’s mountain valleys, as crews expect many more days of severe conditions. The Calf Canyon Fire kept moving south and east on Sunday and is expected to push that direction overnight as winds stay strong all night. It has also spread north, establishing on the far side of a highway that firefighters had hoped to use as a containment line.Although no deaths have been reported, the fire has destroyed at least 276 structures and led to the evacuation of nearly 13,000 residences.Here in a town of more than 13,000 people about 120 miles northeast of Albuquerque, residents banded together in the face of uncertainty. Winds were so strong that they swung treetops and street signs, while dusting the city with bits of white and black ash. The air was filled with the smell of burning wood, the sky covered with gray haze.By nightfall, orange flames outlined steep slopes, and pillars of light formed where trees were torched.“The high winds have been the biggest factor against us,” Michael Montoya, a Las Vegas city council member, told The Washington Post on Saturday. “There’s no end in sight.”Todd Abel, operations section chief with the Southwest Area Incident Management Team, said Sunday morning that aerial crews were working to contain the fire. But the strength of the winds had grounded many plans and aircraft, according to U.S. Forest Service officials. Winds of 30 to 40 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph, were “incredible” and “precedent setting,” Abel said, adding that they are expected to continue through Monday.

Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon Fire makes unexpected jump toward Taos county -- The Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon Fire threatened to annex much more of Northern New Mexico — taking a stunning leap Tuesday toward places that a few days ago seemed far removed from its grasp. Abetted by high winds moving south to the north, the voracious fire is setting its sights on Taos and Colfax counties — putting even more communities on alert for evacuations and frustrating 1,800 firefighters and support personnel whose best efforts can’t seem to put a lasso on a blaze that is now in excess of 318 square miles. Noting the fire could push as far as Taos, Angel Fire and Black Lake, Todd Abel, an operations section chief for the fire’s incident management team, said “this fire has enough energy … that those areas are going to see fire.” By midday Tuesday, the fire’s growth toward Taos County necessitated a change in evacuation status, with the small community of Angostura placed in the “go” status and Rock Wall, Las Mochas and Sipapu moved to “set” — one step from a mandatory departure. New Mexico has been anything but lucky on the weather front throughout the crisis, and on Tuesday, forecasters ladled on more difficult news: a front moving in from the west will take root in the eastern part of New Mexico on Wednesday bringing storms with potential lightning strikes. . Lujan Grisham, who speculated the cost of recovering from the devastation to infrastructure, forests and waterways caused by the fires could run into the billions, said once winds get hold of those fires, it becomes challenging for fire crews to battle the blazes in any predictable, regular fashion. While firefighters got some relief from high winds Monday, the areas around the two major fires remained under a red flag warning for most of Tuesday. Winds in the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon Fire zone will range in the 20-30 mph range, with gusts as high as 50 mph over the next two days. Almost as threatening, humidity levels will remain below 10 percent, he said. Winds may be less intense in the area around the Cerro Pelado Fire, but it will still be “very dry” in that region as firefighters work to stop it from moving toward Los Alamos National Laboratory property and the city of Los Alamos. With high winds tossing embers more than a mile, spot fires in the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon zone have bedeviled firefighters almost from the beginning and continued to do so Tuesday. The fire’s run toward the community of Chacon and Guadalupita accelerated and officials indicated it wouldn’t stop there. Fire officials have said at least 172 homes have been lost in a fire zone that ranges from Las Vegas, N.M., to several miles north of Mora, though Lujan Grisham said officials cannot confirm if more structures were damaged or destroyed until they can safely access the fire zone.

Fast-moving Coastal Fire in Laguna Niguel destroys multiple homes, California - (video) A brush fire that started at about 14:45 LT on May 11, 2022, approximately 0.6 km (1 mile) east of the coast in the city of Laguna Niguel, Southern California quickly reached densely packed homes destroying or damaging at least 20 of them.Brian Fennessy, Chief of the Orange County Fire Authority, said at 19:54 LT that the fire had burned about 80 ha (200 acres) and that he was aware of approximately 20 homes that were destroyed or damaged.The Chief said some of the homes appeared to have been ignited not by direct flame impingement, but from the ember shower, possibly passing through unscreened attic vents.¹“Crews will be conducting damage assessments overnight and monitoring for hotspots or flying embers that could spark more damaging flames,” Fennessy said, adding that no civilian or firefighter injuries were reported. The area north of the intersection of Flying Cloud Drive and Pacific Island Drive to the intersection of Highlands Avenue and Pacific Island Drive is under Mandatory Evacuation Order. The area south of Flying Cloud Drive and Pacific Island Drive to the intersection of Pacific Island Drive and Crown Valley Parkway is under a Voluntary Evacuation Warning. There is currently no immediate threat to the City of Laguna Beach from a vegetation fire burning in Laguna Niguel, but the City is asking residents to remain vigilant overnight.Smoke from the Coastal Fire may pose a health danger to some Orange County residents, especially those in certain high-risk groups, the county’s Sheriff’s Department said.

Texas toast: Heat crushed records Saturday and will swell northward - Temperatures as high as 112 degrees shattered records in Texas on Saturday, setting off a prolonged heat wave that will expand through much of the central United States.Parts of Texas could see record-challenging heat in the next six days while record highs near 90 degrees could expand as far north as the Great Lakes by Thursday.It’s the first heat wave of 2022 in the Lower 48 states, at a time when people aren’t yet acclimated to hot weather, increasing the risk of heat-related illness. The National Weather Service has issued heat advisoriesfor portions of Central and South Texas on Sunday. They will probably need to be reissued and extended northward and eastward over the coming days.“If you have outdoor plans, be sure to practice heat safety and stay hydrated,” the Weather Service office serving Austin and San Antoniotweeted early Sunday.The heat will also intensify a critical-to-extreme fire threat that stretches from New Mexico to West Texas.Abnormally hot weather scorched not only Texas on Saturday. Searing temperatures into the 90s also spread over parts of Colorado and New Mexico. In Arizona, Phoenix reached the century mark for the first time this year.Here is a list of some of the notable records that were set Saturday:

• 107 degrees: Abilene, Del Rio and San Angelo, Tex.
• 106 degrees: Childress, Tex.
• 102 degrees: Lubbock, Tex.
• 101 degrees: San Antonio and Amarillo, Tex. — the earliest date ever recorded hitting the century mark in Amarillo.
• 98 degrees: Dalhart, Tex.
• 96 degrees: Corpus Christi, Tex.
• 91 degrees: Colorado Springs.
• 89 degrees: Denver.
• 87 degrees: Galveston, Tex.

Heat wave set to rewrite record books in central, Northeast U.S., as climate change worsens [Video] -After baking the state of Texas, an early-season heat wave is poised to shatter temperature records across the central and Northeastern sections of the United States in the next few days.Unusually hot weather, with temperatures expected to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit throughout a broad stretch of the country, will affect millions of Americans from Texas to Maine and serve as yet another wake-up call as to the mounting evidence of climate change."The heat wave will produce temperatures that are 15-25 degrees above average. In most cases, temperatures this high have not been experienced since September or August last year," AccuWeather said on its website.On Saturday, heat records were toppled in the Texas cities Del Rio, San Angelo and Abilene, with the thermometer registering 112 degrees in some locations. At the weekend, San Antonio notched its earliest consecutive 100-degree days on record,the Weather Channel reported. The oppressive heat has been exacerbated by stifling humidity."Not only will high humidity result in increased discomfort during the day, but unusually warm nights that are also more typical for July," Dan DePodwin, head of AccuWeather's forecasting operations, said.As the heat wave pushed north and east from the Great Plains, daytime temperatures in cities like Chicago were hotter than those recorded in Death Valley, Calif.

Destructive derecho slams Midwest and Northern Plains, creating rare dust storm over Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota, U.S. (videos) A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms, known as a derecho, developed in central Nebraska on May 12, 2022, bringing hurricane-force winds and creating a rare, large wall of dust that swept over parts of Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota, creating near-zero visibility on state highways.The storm left at least 3 people dead in its wake – one in Minnesota and 2 in South Dakota – and damaged homes and businesses in dozens of communities.In addition, at least 5 tornadoes were reported – 2 each in South Dakota and Minnesota and 1 in Iowa.¹In South Dakota, at least 28 counties reported damage, forcing Gov. Kristi Noem to declare a state of emergency.In addition, a destructive tornado hit Castlewood, South Dakota.“We have had many storms before, but the amount of communities that have been affected, we just haven’t seen before,” Noem said during a news conference Friday morning.²“Nature has a way of humbling us, of stepping into our lives with previously unthought power and reminding us what truly matters. That’s how I felt these past two days while surveying storm damage across much of South Dakota.“We will continue to get information out to our people in the coming days. We are getting emergency resources to communities, deploying the National Guard when necessary, and working with local and federal emergency response to help folks out. There is more work to do — together we will get it done.”³Widespread winds gusts of over 120 km/h (75 mph) were reported across the region with some areas recording gusts of more than 170 km/h (105 mph).More than 110 000 customers were left without power across eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota at 21:15 CDT. The number dropped to about 68 000 by 10:15 CDT on May 13 and to 50 000 by 17:00 (CDT / 22:00 UTC). Hurricane-force winds produced by the storms picked up massive amounts of dust, creating a large wall of dust that swept over parts of Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota, creating near-zero visibility on state highways.

India tries to adapt to extreme heat but is paying a heavy price — Vigyan Shukla, a 45-year-old farmer on north India’s plains, has known heat all his life. But not heat like this.When temperatures began to soar in Uttar Pradesh state several weeks ago, Shukla’s wheat crops began to shrivel and his cows provided less milk. When the mercury hit 117 degrees Fahrenheit late last month, a record high in Shukla’s town of Banda, it became punishing for humans, too: Seven of his 25 farmhands came down with diarrhea, a symptom of heat stroke. Others refused to stay outside past 10 a.m. “People are just not able to work,” . “If it’s a matter of one or two days, people can try to work hard through it. But with this longer wave, they’re falling sick.”Typically, heat waves in India affect only part of the country, occur in the summer and only last for a week or so. But a string of early heat waves this spring has been longer and more widespread than any observed before. India experienced its hottest March on record. Northwest and central India followed with their hottest April.“This probably would be the most severe heat wave in March and April in the entire [recorded] history” of India, said Vimal Mishra, a climate scientist at Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar.Despite the unprecedented heat, fewer people appear to be dying. Heat waves in 2015 and 1998 took thousands of lives, but the India Meteorological Department has reported only a handful of deaths so far.Across India, extreme heat has forced farmers, construction workers and students to rearrange their lives, showing how daily routines are changing — and work productivity is declining — in countries that are already among the poorest and hottest in the world.In recent weeks, education officials in nine northern states have cut the length of classes in half so that students can be dismissed by 11 a.m. Some have ended the school year early. Administrators of large government-run rural employment programs mandated that workers digging canals and ditches stop before noon.

Birds fall from the sky as heatwave scorches India (Reuters) - Rescuers in India's western Gujarat state are picking up dozens of exhausted and dehydrated birds dropping everyday as a scorching heatwave dries out water sources in the state's biggest city, veterinary doctors and animal rescuers say. Large swathes of South Asia are drying up in the hottest pre-summer months in recent years, prompting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to warn of rising fire risks. Doctors in an animal hospital managed by non-profit Jivdaya Charitable Trust in Ahmedabad said they have treated thousands of birds in the last few weeks, adding that rescuers bring dozens of high flying birds such as pigeons or kites everyday. "This year has been one of the worst in the recent times. We have seen a 10% increase in the number of birds that need rescuing," Manoj Bhavsar, who works closely with the trust and has been rescuing birds for over a decade. Animal doctors at the trust-run hospital were seen feeding birds multi-vitamin tablets and injecting water into their mouths using syringes on Wednesday. Health officials in Gujarat have issued advisories to hospitals to set up special wards for heat stroke and other heat-related diseases due to the rise in temperatures.

Heatwave to worsen in Delhi, heavy rains in Kerala: IMD issues warning --The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a red alert for Ernakulam and Idukki districts of Kerala, an orange alert for southern districts till 16 May 16 and an orange' alert for Delhi as well on Saturday. The IMD has warned that the mercury may soar to 46-47 degrees Celsius in parts of the city. The maximum temperature at the Safdarjung Observatory, Delhi's base station, is predicted to settle at 44 degrees Celsius as against 42.5 degrees Celsius on Friday.Delhi on Friday saw the mercury rise to 46.1 degrees Celsius at Najafgarh. The weather stations at Jafarpur and Mungeshpur had recorded maximum temperatures of 45.6 degrees Celsius and 45.4 degrees Celsius, respectively, six notches above normal for this time of the year.Pitampura also reeled under heatwave conditions, recording a maximum temperature of 44.7 degrees Celsius.A 'yellow' alert was issued to caution people about a heatwave on Sunday. Cloudy skies and thunder may provide some relief from the intense heat next week.This is the fifth heatwave -- one in March and three in April -- in the capital this summer season.With scanty rains owing to feeble western disturbances, Delhi had recorded its second hottest April this year since 1951 with a monthly average maximum temperature of 40.2 degrees Celsius. A heatwave at the month-end had sent the mercury soaring to 46 and 47 degrees Celsius in several parts of the city.The capital got a miniscule 0.3 mm of rainfall in April against a monthly average of 12.2 mm. March saw nil rainfall against a normal of 15.9 mm. The IMD had predicted above normal temperatures in May. A heatwave is declared when the maximum temperature is over 40 degrees Celsius and at least 4.5 notches above normal. A severe heatwave is declared if the departure from normal temperature is more than 6.4 notches, according to the IMD.Based on absolute recorded temperatures, a heatwave is declared when an area logs a maximum temperature of 45 degrees Celsius. A severe heatwave is declared if the maximum temperature crosses the 47-degree Celsius mark.The IMD has issued a red alert for Ernakulam and Idukki for Saturday while an orange alert has been issued for Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam and Thrissur districts till 16 May.The IMD said squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph is likely to prevail over Kerala coast and advised fishermen not to venture into sea till 16 May.The weatherman has also issued a yellow alert for Malappuram, Kozhikode and Wayanad districts on these days.

18 Signs That Food Shortages Will Get A Lot Worse As We Head Into The Second Half Of 2022 - If you think that things are bad now, just wait until we get into the second half of this year. Global food supplies have already gotten very tight, but it is the food that won’t be produced during this current growing season in the northern hemisphere that will be the real problem. Worldwide fertilizer prices have doubled or tripled, the war in Ukraine has greatly reduced exports from one of the key breadbaskets of the world, a nightmarish bird flu pandemic is wiping out millions of chickens and turkeys, and bizarre weather patterns are absolutely hammering agricultural production all over the planet. I have often used the phrase “a perfect storm” to describe what we are facing, but even that phrase really doesn’t seem to do justice to the crisis that we will be dealing with in the months ahead. The following are 18 signs that food shortages will get a lot worse as we head into the second half of 2022…

• #1 The largest fertilizer company on the entire planet is publicly warning that severe supply disruptions “could last well beyond 2022”…
• #2 The world fertilizer price index has skyrocketed to absurd heights that have never been seen before.
• #3 It is being reported that global grain reserves have dropped to “extremely low” levels… “We think it will take at least 2-3 years to replenish global grains stocks,” Illinois-based CF Industries Holdings Inc.’s president and chief executive officer Tony Will said in a statement in Wednesday’s earnings report.
• #4 Due to the war, agricultural exports from Ukraine have been completely paralyzed…Nearly 25 million tonnes of grains are stuck in Ukraine and unable to leave the country due to infrastructure challenges and blocked Black Sea ports including Mariupol, a U.N. food agency official said on Friday.
• #5 The out-of-stock rate for baby formula in the United States has now reached 40 percent… The out-of-stock rate for baby formula hovered between 2% and 8% in the first half of 2021, but began rising sharply last July. Between November 2021 and early April 2022, the out-of-stock rate jumped to 31%, data from Datasembly showed.

Is A Wheat Crisis Developing In China As Farmers Cut Crops Early? -- As global food prices remain at record highs and war wages in Europe between two of the world's largest grain suppliers, troubling videos from China show farmers slashing winter wheat production ahead of harvest times, adding even more uncertainty about food security. Bloomberg reports China's agriculture ministry is very concerned about the matter. The ministry is investigating if there's illegal destruction of wheat crops. The ministry said this comes three weeks before harvests, adding the crop was subjected to devastating floods late last year. There's also concern that soggy field conditions in southern China due to abnormal rainfall could affect farmers' ability to harvest. An analyst at Melbourne-based Thomas Elder Markets, Andrew Whitelaw, said it's not surprising that farmers are cutting their wheat early for hay as this may be a better return on their money because of poor crop conditions. "If China has a poor crop this season, then they will likely have to continue with a strong import program ... there are "already question marks around China's food security ambitions," Whitelaw said, adding that the country has ramped up wheat imports this year. Here are some videos of Chinese trucks loaded up with unripened wheat that will be used as animal feed instead flour for human consumption.

Rain, Flooding May Cause Lost Acres, Prevented Planting in Northern Plains - Heading into May 9, 2022, farmers in the Northern Plains and northwest Minnesota are behind on planting due to heavy snow, rain in April and now spring flooding. Western North Dakota and parts of southern Canada saw massive snowfalls in April, and while the moisture helped ease drought conditions, spring planting was delayed. In northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota, the Red River of the North spilled out of its banks, causing small streams to flood roads and farm fields. DTN collected comments from all over the state and Canada during the week of May 1. "North Dakota and Minnesota certainly seem vulnerable to getting less acres planted than originally intended, especially if the 1- to 1.5-inch rains happen as forecasted during the May 7-10 period," said Jim Peterson. marketing director, North Dakota Wheat Commission. "Northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota fields are quite saturated, and even without further rains, they are likely three weeks out from planting." Peterson noted that producers in those areas have dealt with wet springs before, however, and once the water recedes, have proven they can make quick progress. "The challenge this year is the extent of road damage, which may limit ready access to some fields. Producers I talked to will still plant wheat if they can get rolling around May 20-25, and northern areas will go into early June." Tim Dufault, Crookston, North Dakota, said, "If we don't get any more rain and see normal temperatures, we maybe could start planting by May 10-12. However, the 10-day forecast does have rain in it for our area. If we get to the middle of May and there's spring wheat left to plant, I think there's a good chance that will get switched to other crops like soybeans, sunflowers or corn." "It's wet," said Peter Ness, Sharon, North Dakota. "Half the township roads are impassable with equipment. "If we don't get any more moisture, it'll be at least another week." "anything along any type of river is still flooded." Darrin Schmidt, eastern North Dakota, said , "We haven't turned a wheel yet and with rain forecasted every weekend, I'm not exactly sure when we will be in. It's drying faster now but going to have to be faster than it has in order to get in the field. At this time, we haven't switched our plans yet but that may change weather permitting." "For this area, most the early 2- to 4-inch rains ran off as we were still cold with frost in the ground. This last week's 1-2 inches of rain soaked in pretty good and helped a lot in bringing out the frost," said Cory Tryan, grain manager, Alton Grain Terminal, LLC. "Ground shaped up pretty quickly the last two days with good sun but still rather cool and near freezing at night. There are more rains forecasted but amounts will be less than 1 inch if the forecast holds. Expecting to be pretty busy around here the week of the 16th with a few fields maybe going by mid next week now. Should be a big push to get most in the ground before the end of May if weather cooperates. We are expecting a few fields of prevented planting, but most the ground will be planted." A farmer in the northern Red River Valley told DTN that, while he needs to plant spring wheat still, he is more concerned about late planting oats before that. "But both are on our minds. It's too early to tell, as about one-third of our land is under floodwater as of May 6. Thinking of reducing or eliminating corn already."

Global Food Prices Ease Slightly From Record, as Ukrainian Exports Foiled; and Global Wheat Variables Evolve - Bloomberg writer Megan Durisin reported on Friday that, “Global food prices held near a record as crop trade is disrupted by the war in Ukraine, exacerbating tight supplies and stoking inflation.“Russia’s invasion has reduced exports from Ukraine to a trickle, curbing supplies from one of the world’s biggest grain and vegetable oil shippers. That’s sent buyers flocking elsewhere, while some nations are moving to restrict sales as they worry about depleting local reserves.“High fertilizer prices and weather worries are adding to the threat for global crop supplies, including drought curbing the U.S. wheat crop. That risks compounding a deepening hunger crisis. A United Nations food index eased less than 1% in April, holding near an all-time high.”Also Friday, Dow Jones writer Yusuf Khan reported that, “Food prices in April moved lower from an all-time high in March, as a drop in vegetable-oil prices managed to marginally mitigate the effects of the war in Ukraine and supply-chain issues globally, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.The FAO’s Food Prices Index, a measure of the most commonly-traded food commodities, fell slightly to 158.5 points in April, from March’s record high of 159.3 points. The April figure marks a 0.8% reduction in prices on month but was still 30% higher than April 2021.” Meanwhile, Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported late last week that, “Ukraine has imposed temporary restrictions on the supply of grain cargoes by rail in the direction ofMoldova and Romania due to a large number of wagons at border crossings, the APK-Infrom consultancy said on Friday.“After its Black Sea ports were blocked by Russia, Ukraine has been forced to use rail as its main route for exporting grain, which often leads to the accumulation of wagons at border crossings.“Earlier, Kyiv suspended grain exports by rail to Poland.”The Reuters article noted that, “The agriculture ministry said on Thursday that grain exports had reached 46 million tonnes in the 2021/22 July-June season, including 132,000 tonnes so far in May.”A separate Reuters article last week reported that, “A U.N. food agency official said on Friday that nearly 25 million tonnes of grains was stuck in Ukraine and unable to leave the country due to infrastructure challenges and blocked ports in the Black Sea.”And, Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported last week that, “Ukraine hopes to grow export capacity by 50% in the next few months by expanding facilities on its western border, but it will still be far short of pre-war levels, the deputy infrastructure minister said on Friday.”“Ukraine, a major global grain grower and exporter, has sharply reduced its grain exports since start of the Russian invasion to around 1 million tonnes in April from up to 6million tonnes before the war,” the article said.New York Times writers Marc Santora, Cora Engelbrecht and Michael Levenson reported in Saturday’s paper that, “The United Nations said on Friday that there was mounting evidence that Russian troops had looted tons of Ukrainian grain and destroyed grain storage facilities, adding to a disruption in exports that has already caused a surge in global prices, with devastating consequences for poor countries.”In other news, Bloomberg writers Pratik Parija and Bibhudatta Pradhan reported last week that, “A growing food security threat is set to push Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi into a conundrum: continue sending wheat to countries hit by dwindling supplies from the war in Ukraine or stockpile food at home to fend off high inflation.

Plastics Recycling 'Does Not Work,' Environmentalists Stress as U.S. Recycling Rates Drop to 5% -A new report shows that U.S. plastic recycling rates have declined from about 8.7% to between 5% and 6%, revealing the challenges and shortcomings of the country’s waste management infrastructure and policies.Environmental organizations Last Beach Clean Up and Beyond Plastics issued the report, which found a decline in recycling rates since 2018, the last time the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released the rates. According to the report, per capita plastic waste generation has increased 263% since 1980, totaling 218 pounds of plastic waste per person as of 2018.At first glance, it may seem the lower recycling rates could express a declining interest in participation by the public. The plastics industry has been pushing for recycling, despite criticism to stop producing as much virgin plastic to begin with.In reality, recycling is a complicated process and is not a sustainable solution to the skyrocketing amount of plastics being made. The declining recycling rate also aligns with decreasing plastic waste exports, as countries like China and Turkey ban waste imports from the U.S., Reuters reported.“The plastics industry must stop lying to the public about plastics recycling. It does not work, it never will work, and no amount of false advertising will change that. Instead, we need consumer brand companies and governments to adopt policies that reduce the production, usage, and disposal of plastics,” Judith Enck, president of Beyond Plastics and former EPA regional administrator, said in a press release.Plastic recycling is far less successful than recycling of other materials. Paper recycling rates are around 66% as of 2020. Glass recycling rates are just over 30%, and cardboard recycling dipped slightly in 2020 to 88.8%. Metal recycling rates depend on the type of metal but range from 27% to 76%. Only plastic recycling rates have failed to go past 10%, even before other countries implemented bans on waste imports from the U.S. and waste considered ‘recycled’ was shipped elsewhere.

 The swift march of climate change in North Carolina’s ‘ghost forests’ - — As the first light of day flickers across the Croatan Sound, Scott Lanier surveys the gray, barren tree trunks that stand in every direction, like massive gravestones marking the once-vibrant landscape. “The forest is just retreating,” says Lanier, manager of this 160,000-acre federal wildlife refuge near North Carolina’s Outer Banks. Lanier first came here to work for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in the mid-1980s and stayed several years before heading to postings around the Southeast. When he returned in 2006, a singular question reverberated in his mind as he drove around: “What happened to the trees?” The startling transformation he witnessed then has only accelerated in recent years. “It has changed dramatically,” he says, “and it has changed very quickly.” Few examples of climate change are as unmistakable and arresting as the “ghost forests” proliferating along parts of the East Coast — and particularly throughout the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula of North Carolina. Places where Lanier once stood on dry ground are now in waist-deep water. Forests populated by towering pines, red maple, sweet gum and bald cypress have transitioned to shrub land. Stretches of shrub habitat have given way to marsh. And what once was marsh has succumbed to the encroaching sea. As sea levels rise, droughts deepen and storms become more intense, saltier water makes its way into these woodlands more readily from surrounding water bodies, as well as deeper into the sprawling network of drainage ditches and irrigation canals created long ago to support the expansion of agriculture. Persistently wet conditions can weaken existing trees. And episodes of saltwater intrusion can push already stressed forests to the breaking point, poisoning the freshwater on which they depend and hastening the death of trees not only at the water’s edge, but in some cases far inland. The result are expanses of dead or dying trees, known as “snags,” that stand as grim monuments to a shifting ecosystem.

Glacial lake outburst flood destroys Hassanabad bridge linking Pakistan and China - (video) A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) from the Shishaper Glacier in Pakistan swept away the Hassanabad Bridge in Hunza on the Karakoram Highway linking Pakistan and China. The event took place on Saturday, May 7, 2022.Hunza Superintendent of Police (SP) Zahoor Ahmed said the glacier had started melting on Saturday due to heat and caused a flood that damaged the bridge and rendered it unusable for traffic.Ahmed said tourists and residents had been provided alternate routes through Ganish and Murtazabad.According to information from the Chief Secretary’s office, the supply of provisions and fuel to the tourists was also being ensured along with rehabilitation and rations for the affected families.The office added that two power plants in Hassanabad were also swept away by the flood.

China discovers giant sinkhole with an ancient forest at the bottom - (video) A Chinese cave exploration team has discovered a giant karst sinkhole at Leye-Fengshan Global Geopark, south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, bringing the number of such sinkholes in Leye County to 30.Zhang Yuanhai, a senior engineer with the Institute of Karst Geology of China Geological Survey, said the sinkhole, located near Ping’e village under Luoxi township, measures 306 m (1 003 feet) in length, 150 m (492 feet) in width and 192 m (623 feet) in depth.¹Its volume is exceeding 5 million m3 (176 million feet³) and can be categorized as a large sinkhole, Yuanhai said.Chen Lixin, leader of the Guangxi 702 cave expedition team, said the ancient trees growing at the bottom are nearly 40 m (131 feet) high, and the dense shade plants are up to one’s shoulders.Zhang said that there are three big caves in the wall, which are presumed to be the remains of the early evolution of the sinkhole.

Large explosions at Stromboli volcano, Italy –(video) A series of strong explosions took place at Stromboli volcano, Italy on May 13, 2022.The first event was a moderately strong explosion at 14:42 UTC, followed by a dozen other events over the next three minutes of which the most energetic was at 14:43 UTC.¹The explosions took place from various mouths of the central-southern area of the crater terrace.The activity produced a significant release of pyroclastic material which covered the crater terrace and also reached Pizzo. From the seismic point of view, this explosive sequence was not anticipated by significant variations in the amplitude of volcanic tremor and the amplitude and frequency of VLP events.“Although the overall trend of activity had been declining at the volcano during the past weeks, today’s explosions, which would have been very dangerous for anyone near the summit area, illustrates that unusually large eruptions can occur at any time and with no warning,” Dr. Tom Pfeiffer of VolcanoDiscovery said.²

Asteroid 2022 JO1 to fly past Earth at 0.18 LD - (video animation) A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 JO1 will fly past Earth at a distance of 0.18 LD / 0.00047 AU (69 567 km / 43 227 miles) at 12:47 UTC on May 10, 2022.This is the 3^rd known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance this month and the 6^th closest. So far this year, our observatories have discovered 55 asteroids whose orbits take them within 1 lunar distance from Earth.2022 JO1 was first observed at ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa on May 9, one day before its close approach.The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 9.5 and 21 m (31 – 69 feet).

 Earth Has a 50-50 Chance of Hitting a Grim Global Warming Milestone in the Next Five Years - As likely as not, the Earth’s average annual temperature will soon have its first spike above the 1.5 degree Celsius cap set for post-Industrial Revolution warming by the 2015 Paris Agreement, according to a new five-year climate outlook from the World Meteorological Organization. Greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase since the pact was signed, and the WMO found there is now a 50-50 chance that the world will temporarily cross the 1.5-degree threshold sometime in the next five years. The WMO projection is the latest in a grim drumbeat of climate science reports showing that the world is still failing to hold warming to a level that could avoid even more catastrophic climate impacts than the increasing heat waves, droughts, wildfires and tropical storms that the current level of warming, about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, has spawned. A single year of warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) doesn’t mean that the threshold of the Paris agreement has been breached for good, said Leon Hermanson, a climate scientist with the Met Office in the United Kingdom who led the report. But the report shows the world is “edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5 degrees could be exceeded for an extended period,” he said. “There is huge potential for misunderstanding here, particularly when it comes to avoiding dangerous planetary warming thresholds,” he said. “When we talk about the need to avoid 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming in a climate change context, we’re talking about the long-term trend, not the values for individual years.”

  As the Planet Warms, Let’s Be Clear: We Are Sacrificing Lives for Profits -The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently dropped a bombshell announcement that should have garnered news headlines in the major global and U.S. media, but did not. New WMO research concludes that “[t]here is a 50:50 chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial level for at least one of the next five years.”WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas explained, “The 1.5 degree Celsius figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet.”In 2015, the likelihood of reaching that threshold within five years was nearly zero. In 2017 it was 10 percent, and today it is 50 percent. As we continue to spew greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in dizzying amounts, that percentage spikes with every passing year and will soon reach 100 percent certainty.When average global temperatures hit the tipping point of 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate scientists predict that most of the Earth’s coral reefs will die off. At 2 degrees Celsius, all will die off. This is the reason why United Nations members coalesced around staving off an average global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius at the last global climate gathering in 2021.The planet has already heated up by 1.1 degrees Celsius, and the consequences are dire across the globe.India is experiencing its worst heat wave in 122 years, and neighboring Pakistan has broken a 61-year-old record for high temperatures. Dozens of people have already died as a result of the extreme heat. Here in the United States, across the central and northeastern parts of the country, there is a heat wave so large and so severe that people from Texas to Maine experienced triple-digit temperatures in May. Even the wealthy enclave of Laguna Niguel in Orange County, Southern California, is on fire, and dozens of homes have been destroyed. Ironically, as extreme heat waves become more likely with global warming, humans will burn more fossil fuels to power the air conditioning they need to cool off and survive, thereby fueling the very phenomenon that leads to more extreme heat waves. In such a scenario, it is a massive no-brainer for the world to quickly and without delay transition to renewable energy sources. Instead, President Joe Biden in April announced the sale of new leases for oil and gas companies to drill on public lands, reneging on his campaign platform’s climate pledges.Biden did so apparently in order to increase domestic fuel supplies and thereby lower gas prices. He also raised the percentage of royalties that companies pay the federal government from 12.5 percent to 18.75 percent. But no amount of dollars saved by consumers or earned in royalties by the federal government can halt the laws of physics and protect the climate.The New York Times’s Lisa Friedman explained, “The burning of fossil fuels extracted from public land and in federal waters accounts for 25 percent of the greenhouse gases generated by the United States, which is the planet’s second biggest polluter, behind China.” Here is one area where the federal executive branch has control, and yet financial considerations have been dictating responses rather than existential ones.

Industry Concerned About Proposed EPA NOx Rule - The Environmental Protection Agency is proposing its first new rules governing heavy-truck nitrogen oxide emissions in two decades, but engine manufacturers say the proposals would be difficult to meet and counterproductive because they could slow the move to cleaner technology. EPA is proposing two options for reducing nitrogen oxides (NOx), which include nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide and other air pollutants. Option 1 would place a limit of .035 gram of NOx per brake horsepower-hour for model years 2027-30, followed by .02 gram in the years following. The agency notes NOx standards would be 90% lower than they are today, when the standard is .2 gram. The option mimics a California rule. Option 2 would require .05 gram starting with model year 2027. The proposals would also increase warranty periods, which currently are 100,000 miles or five years under federal law. Under Option 1, the warranty period would increase to 450,000 miles or seven years by 2027 and to 600,000 miles or 10 years by 2031. Under Option 2, warranties would increase to 350,000 miles or five years by 2027. Likewise, EPA wants to increase the currently required useful life of 435,000 miles for heavy-duty vehicles — useful life being how long the manufacturer must certify expected tailpipe emissions compliance. EPA is considering increasing the useful life under Option 1 to 600,000 miles or 11 years in 2027 and then to 800,000 miles or 12 years in 2031. Under Option 2, it would increase to 650,000 miles or 10 years in 2027. The agency plans to finalize the change before the end of 2022. The proposal stems from an executive order by President Joe Biden. EPA also plans to raise greenhouse gas emission standards starting with model year 2027. Engine maker Cummins believes Option 1 would make it impossible to produce new diesel trucks as early as 2027, said Melina Kennedy, vice president of product compliance and regulatory affairs. “We would be concerned that, yes, Option 1, as stated today, would not allow for a diesel solution in 2027,” she said, noting that Option 2 is more feasible, but the increased useful life is a problem because products age over time. The manufacturer supports stronger NOx requirements and believes emissions can be lowered as early as 2027. Cummins also supports efforts to reduce emissions eventually down to zero.

Energy secretary explains why feds are spending $2.5 billion on carbon capture - The U.S. Department of Energy announced on Thursday it was taking its first steps to disburse more than $2.3 billion for carbon capture technology included in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which the president signed in November, for carbon capture technology. Carbon dioxide emissions are a result of burning fossil fuels and are a primary cause of anthropogenic climate change, and the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been trending steadily higher for the last 60 years. Carbon capture technology aims to remove carbon dioxide at the point the emissions are being generated or from the atmosphere more broadly. The industry is still nascent, and critics say the better use of resources is to scale up clean energy infrastructures. But Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm thinks there's room for both. "Certainly our first preference is to make sure that we are powered by clean, zero carbon emitting energy. And we're doing all of that. But you can walk and chew gum," Granholm told CNBC in a video interview on Thursday. Granholm knows there's skepticism about carbon capture technologies. Critics say that it's mainly used by polluting industries as a way to delay the necessary work of reducing emissions. "There's criticism that something like this — carbon capture and sequestration — merely prolongs assets that the fossil [fuel] industry would be using," Granholm said. "I will say this: Anything we can do to decarbonize is a good thing." In particular, carbon capture technologies will be important to compensate for hard-to-decarbonize sectors of the economy, like heavy industry and the production of steel and cement, she said. She also said that fossil fuels will be a part of the global energy infrastructure for a while.

An Iowa Powerbroker Plans to Make a Windfall From Piping Ethanol Emissions – For most of his 30-year career, Iowa farmer Dan Wahl never knocked heads with his state’s agribusiness goliaths. He was too busy tending his crops and cattle on 640 acres of land. But then, in September 2021, a subsidiary of a private equity firm called Summit Agricultural Group started mailing packets to farmers in his area, pitching its plan to build a 2,000-mile pipeline through 30 Iowa counties as a way of breathing new life into the state’s troubled ethanol industry. The pipeline, dubbed the Midwest Carbon Express, would slash across Wahl’s farm on its way to grab carbon dioxide generated by 31 corn ethanol plants in five states. Wahl didn’t take the idea seriously at first. But then he heard from some neighbors that Summit was prepared to appeal to the Iowa Utilities Board to seize any land not ceded through voluntary easement. That suddenly sounded to Wahl like a credible threat. After all, Summit’s founder and CEO, Bruce Rastetter, is a heavyweight in Iowa politics with close ties to the state’s past and current governors who have appointed members of that very board. An agribusiness magnate, Rastetter has deftly leveraged his wealth to gain political influence. His generous campaign donations to and chummy relations with his home state’s GOP power structure inspired Politico to deem him the “real Iowa kingmaker.”Now he’s making what could be his biggest play yet. Summit’s Midwest Carbon Express project would take advantage of federal tax credits meant to mitigate ­climate change—and it is poised to net him and his investors a massive windfall. Rastetter frames the Midwest Carbon Express as the key to establishing­ ­ethanol as a green fuel for the carbon-­constrained future. But many environmentalists and academic researchers are appalled by the idea, ­insisting that the pipeline system would further entrench an industry that has promoted unsustainable agriculture and yielded few climate benefits.And the pipeline has sparked a battle over land rights. In January, Summit applied to the Iowa Utilities Board for a pipeline permit, which, if granted, will automatically trigger eminent domain for land not acquired by agreement with owners. Hundreds of landowners in the pipeline’s path are refusing to cede right of way. “I bought and paid for this [land], and I’ll be damned if you’re gonna take it from me,” Wahl remembers thinking when he learned about Summit’s project. He has since joined a grassroots resistance movement that has prompted commissioners in 15 counties to urge Iowa’s utility board to deny eminent domain.

Fossil Fuels Aren’t Just Harming the Planet. They’re Making Us Sick - For years, researchers have warned that chemical pollutants tied to fossil fuels have become so pervasive that they would be impossible for anyone to avoid.A study released earlier this week may be the first indication of how widely some chemicals have spread. Researchers found multiple classes of potentially harmful chemicals where they’ve never been measured before: in the bodies of pregnant women.Those findings have helped spur a call for policymakers to act now to protect environmental and public health from threats posed by the close connection between climate change and synthetic chemicals, most of which are derived from petroleum.Scientists have known for decades that babies can be exposed to industrial chemicals even before birth because these chemicals can cross the placenta.“To a disturbing extent, babies are born ‘pre-polluted,’” The new peer-reviewed study, published Tuesday in Environmental, Science & Technology, found many chemicals that have never been measured before in pregnant women.“We looked at chemicals from nine different classes, including things like phthalates and alternative plasticizers and pesticides and other chemicals used in personal care products,” said Jessie Buckley, an associate professor of environmental health and engineering at Johns Hopkins University, “And we found that many of these chemicals were detected in all of the women in our sample from across the United States.”Buckley said she and the team selected chemicals that are in classes, such as herbicides, insecticides, parabens and phthalates, that are suspected of causing adverse health effects in mothers and children. Now that they demonstrated exposure in 171 pregnant women nationally, they are launching a second study of 6,000 women to examine if there are potential health consequences for their children. She said they found “very widespread” exposure to neonicotinoid pesticides, newer pesticides that are replacing older pesticides of concern. Buckley said neonicotinoid pesticides, used in agriculture and in flea and tick treatments on pets, were found in the urine of almost every woman in the study.Buckley said they also found higher concentrations of many chemicals like parabens, bisphenols and phthalates—found in things like shampoos, lotions, nail polish and water bottles—among Latina women compared to white women in the study.“We can’t tell exactly from our study why these chemicals are higher among Latino women,” she said, “But we know that some personal care products and food packaging sources may be used more often among Latina women. And there’s also some disparities in terms of the chemicals included in products and the kinds of products that are used that are related to inequitable exposures.”

The secrets to passing climate legislation — even in red states -- In 2019, renewable power was having a moment — but not where you’d expect. Arkansas, South Carolina, and Utah, among the reddest of red states, passed landmark legislation paving the way for expanding solar and wind power.The bills these states enacted were all sponsored by Republicans, passed by Republican-controlled state legislatures, and approved by Republican governors. They were also bipartisan bills, getting support from Democrats, too.Many Republican legislators still deny the scientific consensus around climate change and oppose policies to address the problem outright. But a recent study found that these red-state successes weren’t a fluke. The analysis, recently published in the journal Climatic Change, shows that states approved roughly 400 bills to reduce carbon emissions from 2015 to 2020. More than a quarter — 28 percent — passed through Republican-controlled legislatures. “Even though some of these policies in red states might not be as ambitious as blue states, I just want people to know that things are happening,” said Renae Marshall, a co-author of the study and a doctoral student at the University of California, Santa Barbara, who is researching ways to reduce political polarization around environmental problems. Marshall hopes that her study could be instructive for collaboration at the federal level, where attempts at bipartisanship tend to be less successful.

White House issues 'action plan' to speed up energy reviews - The White House this morning announced an “action plan” to speed up energy and other infrastructure construction at a time when renewable developers say uncertainties remain a key barrier to growth. Biden officials revealed a multi-step plan to streamline environmental review for infrastructure development as the federal government looks to implement the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law enacted last fall. Still, questions remain about the action plan and what may be different from other efforts. “We are going to get more projects built on time and in the right way from the start,” said Brenda Mallory, the chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality. Officials sought in a press briefing yesterday to promote the transition to a clean energy future as well as extensive environmental scrutiny and community input — which they stressed are not mutually exclusive. “We can and we will do both,” Jason Miller, deputy director for management at the Office of Management and Budget, told reporters. The action plan — which does not carry the weight of an executive order — directs already allocated resources to beef up the small White House interagency permitting council, promotes “both ambitious and realistic” timelines for environmental reviews, reduces document duplication at federal agencies, and works to reform outdated permitting laws such as the General Mining Law of 1872. The plan also creates sector-specific teams, such as for offshore wind, transportation, broadband and renewable energy. The teams, within 60 days, will provide to the White House permitting council a charter describing their structure, mission and objectives, according to a fact sheet from the White House. And within 90 days, the agencies will be expected to report on their approaches.

Why Biden isn't preaching energy conservation -President Joe Biden says he’s not urging Americans to use less energy in response to soaring gas prices. Rather, Biden insisted yesterday that his top priority is cutting prices — an approach designed to help boost Democratic prospects ahead of a tough midterm campaign. In the face of double-digit inflation, Biden bragged that his first year in office saw “record levels” of drilling that surpassed former President Donald Trump’s first year. And he said his administration has taken steps to increase oil supplies through Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases. But the White House isn’t preaching energy conservation, Biden said, because most Americans cannot easily adjust how much energy they use. “Well, if you ever raised a family like mine, you don’t have to tell them. They’re doing everything in their power to figure out how not to have to show up at the gas pump,” Biden said after a speech in which he argued he has a better plan to cut inflation than Republicans. Biden was responding to a question about encouraging people to use mass transit instead of driving. In most of the country, he said, riding buses or trains simply isn’t feasible. “The truth is they don’t have that many options, in terms of transportation, around the country right now,” he said. Biden said he hoped the situation would change with the bipartisan infrastructure law that he signed last year. The package included about $39 billion for public transit, as well as $66 billion for passenger and freight rail. It also directed an additional $110 billion to roads, bridges and highways. The bipartisan infrastructure bill will “help a lot,” Biden said, adding that it’s “going to take time.” He also said that his renewable energy and electric vehicle goals would lower energy demand in the long term.

Governor Scott Vetoes Clean Heat Bill -Gov. Phil Scott on Friday vetoed H.715, a bill that was designed to reduce fossil fuel heating emissions through a “clean heat standard.”In his veto message, the governor repeated his concerns that the bill places too much of the responsibility for the standard in the hands of the Public Utilities Commission without proper oversight from the General Assembly. He also said the bill’s authors had not done enough research on its potential impact.“What the Legislature has passed is a bill that includes some policy, with absolutely no details on costs and impacts, and a lot of authority and policy making delegated to the Public Utility Commission (PUC), an unelected board,” Scott wrote.The clean heat standard would require fuel dealers to decrease the amount of fossil fuel they sell over time. Alternatively, they could offset that by selling more biofuels, installing electric heat pumps and weatherizing homes to cut down on fossil-fuel consumption. The bill was drafted as one means of meeting the requirements set out in Vermont’s 2020 Global Warming Solutions Act, which includes aggressive reduction targets for fossil fuel emissions.That law enables members of the public to sue the state if it fails to take sufficient steps toward cutting emissions by 15 percent by 2025, 40 percent by 2030 and 80 percent by 2050. The bill would give the PUC until January 2024 to formulate the rules after at least six public hearings. Senators included a provision that would require legislators to be consulted before PUC rules are final. But that didn’t go far enough, Scott said Friday.

How the Ukraine war could make New Englanders shiver - As coal, oil and nuclear power plants have retired en masse in recent years, New England has turned to liquefied natural gas to keep the lights on and energy prices low. But with Europe scrambling to offset its use of Russian gas by importing more LNG, the region could find itself facing skyrocketing gas prices next winter. The dynamic illustrates New England’s mounting reliance on natural gas and the halting nature of efforts to green the region’s power supplies. The six New England states, which are served by a common electricity market, have struggled to replace their retired power plants with large-scale renewable projects or new pipelines to serve their existing gas facilities. LNG has helped paper over the cracks. Cargoes delivered to a trio of marine terminals in Massachusetts and New Brunswick have helped the region compensate for its limited pipeline network, which lacks enough capacity to serve heating and electricity demand during extended cold snaps. But the strategy also has left New England exposed to the global LNG market. In previous years, the approach has paid off. Gas was cheap, and even some environmentalists supported LNG imports because they forestalled the need to build new gas pipelines. Now, the region faces skyrocketing gas prices. Asia has long been the top destination for LNG cargoes. But Europe has jumped into the LNG market in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, redirecting cargoes away from Asia and sending gas prices on both continents soaring. “Every year you’re facing the same thing. It’s just that this time fundamentals are so tight that prices are going to reflect that,”

Investigation into solar tariffs could threaten the 2035 US clean energy goal, says DOE's Granholm - The Department of Commerce's investigation into potential solar tariff circumvention could threaten the United States' decarbonization efforts if it goes on for too long, Department of Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said Thursday. The investigation risks "the complete smothering of the investment and the jobs and the [energy] independence" the solar industry provides, she told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee during a hearing on the Biden administration's proposed Fiscal Year 2023 budget request for DOE. Rising electricity prices were also a topic of discussion, with Republican lawmakers blaming Biden policies that discouraged development of pipeline infrastructure or gas drilling. Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, also pointed to rising liquefied natural gas exports as a factor in rising electricity prices. The rising price of electricity, natural gas and gasoline were major issues at Thursday's hearing. While much of the questioning focused on Russia and Ukraine, there was also discussion of electricity issues like the solar tariff investigation and its potential impact on plans to decarbonize the U.S. electric sector by 2035. Commerce announced the investigation in March, digging into claims that manufacturers in four Southeast Asian countries use parts made in China that otherwise would be subject to a tariff. The investigation could take up to a year, potentially upending the supply chain of panels from those countries in the meantime. "I'm hearing from manufacturers, from installers, all about laying people off now, about projects being canceled," said Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M. "It's not up to any of us to tell Commerce how to resolve that process. However, if it's not done really, really quickly we are going to destroy an entire industry." The Department of Commerce is expected to issue a final decision as late as April 2023.

Biden admin defends solar probe, spurs industry outrage - Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo sought to justify her department’s ongoing probe into new solar tariffs during a congressional hearing yesterday, prompting sharp attacks from renewable advocates. The Commerce preliminary probe, launched in March, is assessing whether to slap tariffs of 50 percent to 200 percent on solar panels and parts imported from four Southeast Asian countries. It was prompted by a request by California-based panel maker Auxin Solar, which says Chinese producers are unfairly skirting U.S. duties by performing minor assembly in those four countries. The review has spurred a wave of condemnation from solar trade groups, utilities and developers, who blame it for unsettling the industry’s economics and jeopardizing the future of the industry. About 80 percent of the panels used by U.S. companies trace back to Southeast Asia, according to industry groups. In testimony yesterday before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Raimondo expressed sympathy with the alarm of the solar industry and its congressional advocates. “I share the sense of urgency. I understand how fragile the solar supply chain is and how we need to move forward quickly,” she said. The secretary said tariffs of 200 percent, the upper end of Auxin’s requested range, were “exceedingly unlikely” adding that in the past, Commerce has tended to apply tariffs at rates below 20 percent. “I am in no way predetermining what this [outcome] will be, if it will be anything,” Raimondo said. “I do think it is important to say that the 200 percent is an extreme case and not fitting with the precedent we’ve had.” She also hinted that Commerce’s preliminary review could end well before the department’s August deadline. “There is nothing that prohibits us from going faster, and I assure you we’re going to go as fast as possible,” said Raimondo. Yet the department’s hands are effectively tied, she told senators, saying Auxin’s request had met the criteria to begin a review. “There are five criteria, five criteria only that [Commerce’s International Trade Administration] can look at,” she said. “If they find that the case meets the criteria, the threshold of the five criteria, we are obliged to initiate, which is what we are doing.” “I have been asked, ‘Why don’t you consider climate as a factor? Why don’t you consider policy as a factor?’ … The answer is, statutorily, there is no discretion,” said Raimondo. “This is complex, and there are two sides to this story,” she added.

Solar trade dispute impacts PNM power supplies - The trade dispute that’s disrupting solar development in New Mexico and across the country is now threatening Public Service Company of New Mexico’s projected power supply for summer 2023, once again raising the specter of potential blackouts next year. That’s because the U.S. Commerce Department investigation into tariff evasion, or circumvention, by solar panel manufacturers in some Southeast Asian countries is interrupting needed supplies for two of four new solar facilities that are supposed to replace the coal-fired San Juan Generating Station after it fully closes in September, said PNM Vice President for Generation Tom Fallgren. Those delays mean that nearly half of the 950 megawatts of solar generation and battery storage that was scheduled to be fully online by early next year now won’t be available until after summer 2023. In addition, about 740 MW of additional solar generation expected to replace the loss of electricity from the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station in Arizona after two PNM plant leases there expire next year will likely also be delayed until 2024, at the earliest, Fallgren said. “We have some significant challenges to deal with before next summer,” Fallgren told the Journal. “The solar project developers weren’t able to lock in needed supply contracts, and now they have to figure out alternatives. It’s got everything backed up.” PNM said early this year that it was facing potential rolling blackouts this summer, and in summer 2023, largely because of pandemic-induced supply-chain constraints that set back the timelines for both the San Juan and Palo Verde solar replacement projects.It resolved this summer’s projected power shortfalls by extending operations at one of San Juan’s two generating units, with only one of them now scheduled to close by the original June 30 shutdown date, and closure of the other one postponed until Sept. 30, after summer peak electricity demand is over.

 Just Don't Say "Climate Change," & Manchin Is On Board With West Virginia Wind Power - Manchin and wind power? Say it isn’t so, Joe! West Virginia wind power is on the rise, but make sure you don’t mention the term “climate change” to Senator Joe Manchin III (R-Coal) or other red state Republicans. Black Rock’s 23 state-of-the-art wind turbines are now part of an “all-of-the-above” approach to West Virginia’s statewide energy policy. That phrase is one of Manchin’s mantras, a way to encourage the continuation of fossil fuels while acknowledging the need for renewables like the West Virginia wind power addition. State politicians have applauded the West Virginia wind farm for bringing reliable energy and well-paying jobs to the region. To these legislators, bragging about wind power’s role in the future of West Virginia and the US isn’t incompatible with what’s known as “climate denial.” The former is a practical energy source that satisfies labor pressures and brings energy stability; the latter is a delay mechanism. The additional West Virginia wind power adds significantly to the state’s clean energy portfolio, as the once-powerful coal industry is on the decline. The gusts of change could be baffling to you unless you remember that power is politics — for energy production and legislative seat preservation. The $200 million wind farm in West Virginia’s Grant and Mineral counties was unveiled this month. Clearway Energy Group’s commercial operations on Black Rock, a 115 MW wind farm that spans West Virginia’s Grant and Mineral counties, will increase the state’s wind energy generation by 15%, according to a Clearway press release. The project will generate carbon-free electricity under long-term power purchase agreements with customers Toyota Motor North America and AEP Energy Partners, a wholly-owned subsidiary of American Electric Power, both major employers in West Virginia.

Activists: proposed power plant near Duluth adds to harm against Native, lower-income communities - Activists are calling on Minnesota Power to revise its plans for a new power plant near Duluth and to close other facilities after a study found that existing plants disproportionately harm Native and lower-income communities. A collective of organizations is asking Minnesota Power to refrain from burning natural gas to produce electricity at the proposed Nemadji Trail Energy Center, and instead to use wind and solar power. The collective is also asking Minnesota Power to close a biomass plant in Duluth immediately, and to shutter two coal plants in Cohasset, Minn.,–one by 2029 and another by 2030. Those changes would prevent human deaths and comply with state and federal climate change goals, they argue. Minnesota Power, based in Duluth, is the state’s second-biggest power utility company. The company, owned by Allete, Inc., serves 145,000 residential and commercial customers in northeastern Minnesota. The company runs a variety of coal, natural gas, biomass, wind, and hydroelectric plants. Half of its energy is produced by renewable sources. The collective, Clean Energy Organizations, is comprised of the Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy, the Sierra Club, and the Fresh Energy and Clean Grid Alliance. The group recently submitted its requests to the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission as part of the planning process for the proposed $700 million Nemadji Trail Energy Center power plant in Superior, Wis. Minnesota Power’s coal plants in Cohasset, Minn., sit near the Leech Lake Reservation, and a biomass plant that occasionally burns coal sits on the St. Louis River near Lake Superior in West Duluth. A report commissioned by the collective found that the plants impact the Native population three times more than non-Native people.

RNG touted as fossil fuel alternative, but critics abound - — Utilities are touting renewable natural gas as an alternative to burning fossil fuels as part of their long-term plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but state leaders and environmentalists are raising alarms about the costs, limits and potential harms of relying on the fuel source to meet climate change goals. One of the state’s largest utilities, National Grid, announced last month that it is seeking to eliminate fossil fuels from its gas networks in Massachusetts and New York by 2050, replacing it with renewable natural gas and green hydrogen. “Using the existing gas network that connects us to the broader region, this resource can supply fossil free gas to heat our homes and businesses,” the company states in a report outlining its plans. “Our fossil free vision assumes that National Grid eventually procures 10% to 20% of RNG annual supply potential in the eastern U.S. for our customers.” Renewable natural gas is produced from landfills, cow manure and wastewater treatment plants and can be used interchangeably with regular natural gas that is piped through miles of distribution lines into homes and businesses in the state. National Grid, which serves more than 900,000 gas customers in Massachusetts, says blending natural gas supplies with RNG will provide a “double benefit” by capturing methane leaking from landfills while reducing reliance on fossil fuels. “Society will always produce waste, which naturally emits surface level methane as a decomposes,” the company said in its report. “RNG reduces emissions by capturing this potent greenhouse gas before it can escape into the atmosphere and putting it to productive use as an energy resource.” A law signed by Gov. Charlie Baker requires the state to slash carbon emissions by at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2030 and 75% of 1990 levels by 2040. But environmental groups are pushing back against claims, pointing out that RNG is five times as expensive as traditional fossil-produced gas, its availability is limited compared to overall gas demand and argue that its role in addressing climate change would be negligible. “Bio-methane is still methane, and RNG saves nothing really because it’s literally equivalent to methane getting piped into homes and burned,” said Caitlin Peale Sloan, vice president of the Conservation Law Foundation in Massachusetts. “Even if they fix leaks on the distribution system, you’re still venting an enormous amount of methane into the atmosphere.”

Avoid using gas as ‘transition’ fuel in move to clean energy, study urges --Countries should move from coal to renewable energy without shifting to gas as a “transition” fuel to save money, as high gas prices and market volatility have made the fossil fuel an expensive option, analysis has found.Natural gas has long been touted as a “transition” fuel for economies dependent on coal for their power needs, as it has lower carbon dioxide emissions than coal but requires similar centralised infrastructure, and gas-fired power stations take only a couple of years to build. Earlier this year, before Russia invaded Ukraine, the European Commission angered green campaigners by including gas as a “bridge” to clean energy in its guidebook for green investment.High prices for gas, and the plummeting cost of renewable energies such as wind and solar power, have reversed that logic, according to analysis from TransitionZero. The cost of switching from coal to renewable energy has plunged by 99% since 2010, according to its report published on Tuesday.The findings call into question the economic viability of the scores of gas and coal-fired power plants that are planned or under construction around the world. About 615GW of new gas plants, and 442GW of new coal-fired power stations, are planned for construction globally, according to the analysis. Matt Gray, the co-founder of TransitionZero, said it no longer made sense to think of gas as a transition fuel, and countries should opt for renewables in place of coal. “Despite some regional variation, our analysis shows a clear deflationary trend in the cost of switching from coal to clean electricity,” he said. “Independent of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this trend will accelerate, presenting governments with an economic opportunity to protect electricity consumers from continued fossil fuel volatility.” Many countries are reviewing their energy policies in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – which has sent fossil fuel prices soaring and disrupted supplies – and may be considering a reversion to coal. The amount of power generated from coal rose 9% to a record high last year, even before the war in Ukraine, and if the coal-fired power stations now planned are built the world will have little chance of limiting global heating to 1.5C, according to separate analysis published last month.Gray said that although the economics were firmly in favour of renewable energy, governments must make some policy changes in order to realise the full benefits. These included making it easier to build windfarms and solar power, because acquiring planning permission can take up to 10 years in some regions; removing distorting incentives and tax breaks for fossil fuels; and ensuring electricity markets are properly functioning.

Cash gushes for Big Oil. But climate investments plateau - The oil giants are practically printing money. With crude prices soaring, companies reported earning dizzying profits during the first three months of the year. Not even costly write-downs for those with business ventures in Russia were enough to dent their balance sheets. The gusher of cash comes at a time of transition for the industry. European companies like BP PLC, Equinor ASA, Royal Dutch Shell PLC and TotalEnergies SE have all committed to achieving net-zero emissions by midcentury, and they have started investing in low-carbon initiatives focused on renewables, hydrogen and electric vehicle charging. Their American counterparts have largely declined to follow suit. Analysts said first-quarter earnings showed that the oil industry’s transformation to clean energy will be slow, if it happens at all, despite their soaring profits. Most companies refrained from sanctioning a wave of new oil and gas drilling projects, but they also held back from pumping more money into their emerging low-carbon businesses. Instead, they elected to plow profits back to shareholders in the form of share buybacks and higher dividends. Some analysts argue that high oil prices can benefit the transition by underwriting green investments, while buybacks can placate restive shareholders who are worried about abandoning hydrocarbons. But others are skeptical, noting that oil giants’ green spending has risen slowly even as their profits have soared. “I have yet to see any quarter where higher profitability flows through to higher capital expenditures on energy alternatives,” “If they were employing that balance sheet at a higher degree, maybe I would have a different opinion,” he said, adding, “For me, it’s Groundhog Day.” Europe’s oil majors are raking in cash as oil and gas prices soar. Equinor, the Norwegian giant, reported a pretax profit of $18 billion in the first three months of the year, four times more than what it made in the first quarter of 2021. Paris-based TotalEnergies reported a core profit of $17.4 billion. Shell tripled its first-quarter earnings compared to last year with a profit of $9.13 billion. And BP earned $6.2 billion. All four companies reported write-downs associated with their business segments in Russia. How they spend the cash is an increasingly pressing question. In the immediate term, global oil demand has risen faster than supply. Russia’s war in Ukraine has increased worries of further supply shortages, and that has prompted calls for companies to increase production. European companies are under mounting pressure from their investors and governments at home to ratchet down investment in new oil production, “The implications include they will miss out on opportunities to profitably expand production and, for the market as a whole, somewhat less efficient use of capital and therefore a slower supply response,” Indeed, companies were hesitant to increase their drilling budgets after the first-quarter windfall, saying they would maintain capital discipline rather than splurge on new production. Companies are funneling today’s profits back to shareholders. BP will dedicate 60 percent of its surplus cash this year to share buybacks. Shell has already completed about half of the $8.5 billion in share buybacks planned for this year. Total is spending $3 billion on share buybacks in the first half of 2022.

 Ohio bill would open door to subsidize next-gen nuclear power --Three years ago, Ohio lawmakers attempted to bail out the state’s aging nuclear power plants with a law to make utility customers pay more than $1 billion in subsidies for those former FirstEnergy plants. The nuclear subsidies were eventually repealed, but now some lawmakers are pushing legislation to help private companies develop a type of next-generation nuclear technology in the state known as a molten salt reactor. House Bill 434 does not include any direct funding but would establish a state nuclear development authority meant to attract federal research contracts. It would also be eligible for state economic development funding and would have the authority to acquire property. Representatives of a Cleveland-based nonprofit organization, eGeneration, testified for the bill and stressed the potential benefits of developing the project in Ohio. Supporters say the technology could generate carbon-free power for centuries using spent fuel depleted at conventional nuclear power plants or by converting thorium into fuel. Critics see the bill as another attempt by Ohio lawmakers to favor a particular form of generation. They’re also concerned about the potential lack of transparency with state economic development spending, much of which is handled by a group not subject to the state’s public records law. The Ohio Nuclear Free Network calls the bill a “radioactive taxpayer subsidy.”

More Inflation: Natural Gas Up Sharply, Summer Electricity Bills to be Impacted - – Even Ohio’s own natural gas is feeling inflationary pressures. Prices are up 150-percent or around four dollars per mcf from a year ago. And electricity bills will be impacted because more and more electrical power is produced by burning natural gas. An Ohio industry association says there are the usual culprits like COVID recovery, the war and overall inflation. But gas producers are also uncertain about what the Biden administration might do next, with canceled pipelines, delayed permits and more. For example, the Mountain Valley Pipeline from northwest West Virginia to Virginia is 95-percent complete, awaiting permitting for the remainder of it. When the oil and gas industry started tapping the Utica Shale here in Ohio over ten years ago, we thought we’d never complain about the price of natural gas again.

Earnings report released by Ascent Resources – Oklahoma Energy Today - Oklahoma City-based Ascent Resources Utica Holdings, LLC released its first quarter 2022 financial report on Tuesday showing a net loss of $1.6 billion and adjusted net income of $81 million. The company’s adjusted EBITDAX was $280 million while the net loss was reported to have been largely driven by a $1.6 billion unrealized commodity derivative fair value loss primarily due to an increase in the forward strip for natural gas. Ascent incurred $240 million of total capital expenditures in the first quarter of 2022 including $199 million for well costs, $31 million for acquisition and leasehold costs and another $10 million for capitalized interest.

Ascent 1Q – Drills 17 Ohio Wells, Loses $1.5B on Bad Derivatives | Marcellus Drilling News - Ascent Resources, originally founded as American Energy Partners by gas legend Aubrey McClendon, is a privately-held company that focuses 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and the 8th largest natural gas producer in the U.S. The company issued its first quarter update earlier this week. Ascent averaged production of 2.0 Bcfe/d for the quarter, a 9% increase over 1Q21. Nearly all of Ascent’s production (93%) was natural gas, while the rest was oil and NGLs. Ascent generated -$2 million of free cash flow (yes, negative free cash flow) and lost $1.5 billion during 1Q based on bad bets on derivatives/hedging.

`Riverbend Energy Shops Non-Operated Wells in Ohio Utica, Elsewhere - Riverbend Energy Group is, according to its website, “a multi-faceted investment firm, utilizing risk-weighted deal evaluation processes to deploy capital into a variety of investment theses in the U.S. energy sector.” Which is gobbledegook for “we invest in oil and gas wells.” The company mainly invests in non-operated oil and gas wells, although it also has some operated wells in its portfolio (and investments in renewables too). Riverbend is, according to sources speaking with Reuters, working with an unnamed investment bank to shop three portfolios of non-operated oil and gas assets–with one of them containing Utica Shale assets.

Preparing for petrochemicals - Chemical & Engineering News - On Sept. 22, 2021, people living along the Ohio River in Beaver County, Pennsylvania, were alarmed by a peculiar odor that many likened to the smell of maple syrup. “I thought it was one of my neighbors cooking something.” But the smell was too strong to be a cooking odor. Another neighbor told her she’d heard that the Shell plant had an accident of some sort. Matt Stewart of Brighton Township, a community uphill from Beaver, also experienced the smell. “As I recall it lasted a couple of days,” says Stewart, a city planner for a nearby town. “It didn’t quite smell like maple syrup. Kind of a good smell, but kind of weird.” In the days that followed, a flurry of posts on local social media news pages called out the strange odor. Speculation focused on the Shell ethylene cracker and polymerization plant, which is scaled to manufacture 1.6 million metric tons of polyethylene pellets annually. Shell responded on its Facebook page on Sept. 26, confirming an odor from the plant that the company said may have been associated with a procedure that prevents cooling-tower corrosion. The next day, Shell received a notice of violation from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) for the emission of a malodorous air contaminant. The department had received 16 complaints about the smell from area residents. “In at least one instance, the complainant was a local official contacting DEP on behalf of more than one constituent,” Lauren Fraley, community relations coordinator for the department, says in an email response to queries. Shell informed the DEP that sodium tolyltriazole, a copper corrosion inhibitor, caused the odor. On its website, the company describes an accidental mixture of the chemical with bleach, causing the odor. Shell agreed to pay a civil penalty of $4,313. A Sept. 24 post on “The News Alerts of Beaver County” page on Facebook noted the smell, asking if anyone knew where it came from. “Cracker plant!” Debbie Sunny Cline commented. Many in the 95-comment thread agreed. Nearly everyone smelled it. “It’s been unbearable for the last three days in Vanport,” commented Jessica Kunca, referring to a town across the river from the plant. Stewart notes a groundswell of concern among friends and neighbors. “When we found out the smell was because of the Shell plant, it bothered a lot of people,” he says. “We have friends who were like, ‘That’s the last step. This is a harbinger of what’s to come.’ It really freaked out a lot of people.” Opponents of the plant view the advent of chemical production based on ethane extracted via hydraulic fracturing (fracking) as a giant step backward for southwest Pennsylvania. The stage is set, they say, for one economic monoculture, steel from coal and iron ore, to be replaced by another, chemicals and plastics from fossil fuels.

 Mariner East Pipeline has sparked a boom in fracked gas exports from Philly region - Nearly once a day last year, a large tanker sailed up the Delaware River and docked at Marcus Hook Terminal to take on a cargo of liquid fuel, produced mostly from the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations in Western Pennsylvania and neighboring states. The fuels — propane, butane, and ethane — were destined for markets in Europe, the Caribbean, Asia, Africa, and South America, where they’re used for heating, motor fuel, and as raw material for petrochemical manufacturing. Almost all the products were piped into Marcus Hook via the controversial Mariner East Pipeline system, the fuel transportation network whose protracted construction was hugely disruptive along its 350-mile route but finally seems to be delivering on its promise as an economic engine. For all of 2011, when shale gas extraction was picking up momentum in Pennsylvania, only one vessel departed Delaware Bay loaded with gas liquids, according to data supplied by the Maritime Exchange for the Delaware River and Bay, a trade group for the shipping industry. Gas liquids are a byproduct of natural gas production, as well as oil refining. By last year, 328 tankers left Delaware River terminals carrying shipments of gas liquids, or nearly one out of four of the 1,346 cargo vessels that set sail from the region (container vessels accounted for the majority). While other industrial sectors stalled during the pandemic, the number of vessels loaded with propane, butane, and ethane at Philadelphia-area wharves jumped 61% in the last two years. It’s a similar story nationwide, where exports of gas liquids steadily climbed in the last decade, linked to the expansion of shale exploration and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. Exports of natural gas liquids increased exponentially from 164,000 barrels per day in 2010 to 2.3 million barrels per day last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Most of the export traffic originates from Texas and Louisiana ports on the Gulf of Mexico.| Environmentalists have opposed the expansion of shale oil and gas production because of harmful climate impacts and believe exporting the products only prolongs the use of fossil fuels over alternatives. But supporters of fuel exports say they are vital to generating foreign exchange and jobs, and in some cases, displace dirtier fuel like coal. Propane, the bottled fuel associated in America with backyard barbecues, is widely used overseas for heating, cooking, and in some petrochemical production. It’s also an alternative fuel in Europe for piped Russian gas. Butane is blended into gasoline. And ethane is the raw material in the production of ethylene, a building block for plastics, and is considered a cleaner and more efficient alternative to petroleum products. About 90% of the 328 ships last year loaded with gas liquids on the Delaware River came from one location: the Marcus Hook Terminal, a former Sunoco refinery that shut down in 2011 and has been rebuilt by its new owner, Energy Transfer LP of Dallas, as a facility for processing, storing, and transloading gas liquids onto ships. Few projects have caused as much uproar as Mariner East. Sunoco Pipeline, the Energy Transfer subsidiary that built the project, drew $24 million in fines from Pennsylvania regulators during construction, according to a tally by the PA Environment Digest blog. And last year Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro announced a criminal indictment of Energy Transfer related to spills and leaks of drilling mud at nearly two dozen locations across Pennsylvania, including Marsh Creek State Park in Chester County.

MVP's prospects improve, but will it be enough? Production bottlenecks and global energy security concerns stemming from the Ukraine war have flipped the script on various aspects of the U.S. energy markets. One of them is the softening of Wall Street and regulatory resistance to investment in new hydrocarbon infrastructure. That’s been particularly good news for the swarm of LNG export projects looking to move forward. It’s also improved somewhat the prospects for the embattled Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), the last major greenfield project for moving natural gas out of the Northeast from the Appalachian Basin. A court vacated three of the project’s key federal authorizations earlier this year, but the project recently got a greenlight when the Federal Regulatory Energy Commission (FERC) approved MVP’s amendment certificate application. Equitrans Midstream said last week that it would pursue new permits and target in-service in the second half of 2023. But the prospect of more legal challenges looms, and the question is, will it get across the finish line before severe constraints arise? In today’s RBN blog, we provide an update on the Appalachian gas market.The Appalachia production basin has long been bedeviled by midstream constraints, often leading to deep price discounts vs. the national gas benchmark Henry Hub. There have been brief respites when new capacity has come online, allowing more gas to flow out, but if you've been reading our blogs and natural gas reports lately, you know we've been sounding the alarm about the growing specter of constraints reemerging (see our Headed for Heartbreak series). The boom in pipeline reversals, greenfield projects, and pipeline expansions out of Appalachia that characterized much of the 2010s is pretty much over, with just one major takeaway newbuild left in the region: MVP, the 2-Bcf/d greenfield pipeline from northern West Virginia to south-central Virginia.The Ukraine war, bans on Russian energy supplies, and the related energy security concerns have all renewed political and regulatory support for U.S. gas supply and infrastructure to some extent. But environmental opposition — and the resulting legal actions against new gas infrastructure — haven’t abated, and generally speaking, it’s gotten much harder in recent years for projects offering additional capacity to gain traction, especially in the Northeast. Given that reality, in the latest round of earnings calls over the past few weeks, Appalachian producers have stuck to their disciplined stance, even in the face of the highest gas prices in years — largely opting to stay in maintenance mode until there are clear signals that the infrastructure will be there to support supply growth. That means that as constraints in getting gas out of the Northeast worsen, Appalachian production growth and outflows to growing demand markets, like LNG exports, will be largely paced by new takeaway capacity out of the basin (see Up Around the Bend, Part 3).,Suffice it to say, there’s a lot riding on MVP, as the last approved takeaway project that could at least defer severe constraints for a bit longer and facilitate production growth. There’s also a good deal of skepticism about the likelihood of the project being completed, given the dismal track record of natural gas pipelines in the region that faced similar environmental opposition as MVP.

FERC extends construction deadlines for two US LNG projects despite protests | S&P Global Commodity Insights - Over objections from environmental groups, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission agreed to extend construction deadlines for two US Gulf Coast LNG projects and signed off on more construction activites for a pipeline serving a third. The actions could be a positive sign for US LNG export-related projects awaiting action from the regulator, amid uncertainties over how presures to strengthen environmental reviews might affect project timelines. FERC May 5 gave Cheniere Energy's 10 million mt/year Corpus Christi Liquefaction Stage 3 project in Texas and related pipeline projects another 31 months, until June 30, 2027, to complete construction and enter service (CP18-512, CP18-513). Notably, the commission rejected Sierra Club and Public Citizen arguments that the delay was driven by market prices rather than a response to unforseeable difficulties associated with the coronavirus pandemic. The commission reasoned that while it may deny an extension when a project is no longer commercially viable, the record did not back that conclusion in this case. "The companies continue to pursue the project and remain optimistic that the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on LNG market conditions is waning," FERC said. It also cited evidence of rising demand, which it said was supported by the recent US-EU partnership to increase US LNG supplies to Europe by at least 15 Bcm in 2022, with expectations of increased demand going forward. The companies have shown there is a continued interest in the project, the order said. A turnabout in LNG prices in Europe and Asia since record lows in 2020 has spurred renewed interest in US LNG supplies. Offering relatively low fixed fees and destination flexibility for cargoes, US LNG exporters and project developers including Cheniere, Venture Global LNG, NextDecade and Energy Transfer have announced new long-term deals in recent months. The swings in delivered prices also present opportunities in the prompt market for US FOB cargoes. Platts DES NWE for June, the delivered price of LNG into Northwest Europe, was assessed May 9 at $18.710/MMBtu. While that was down sharply from a record high of $60.925/MMBtu March 8, the current price is still more than double what it was on the same day a year ago. Across the Atlantic, the Platts Gulf Coast Marker for US FOB cargoes loading 30-60 days forward was assessed at $18.100/MMBtu May 9. The current GCM value also is more than double what it was a year ago. Similarly, FERC gave the Lake Charles LNG project and Trunkline Gas' related pipeline modifications project another three years, until Dec. 16, 2028, complete construction and start service (CP14-119, CP14-120). The applicants also cited pandemic-related disruptions to the global LNG market as a source of delay, and were countered by Sierra Club, Healthy Gulf and Louisiana Bucket Brigade. The environmentalists urged FERC to reexamine public benefits of the project in light of climate change and growth in renewable energy adoption. New information requires FERC to undertake an analyses to account for endangered species and environmental justice, the environmental groups argued. The commission disagreed, saying the companies requested only to change the timing, not the nature of the projects. FERC again cited evidence of increased demand for LNG. In addition, FERC determined the listing of additional species did not conflict with the extension decision. Should it become necessary based on consultation with the National Marine Fisheries Service or the US Fish and Wildlife Service, FERC will supplement its environmental review under the National Environmental Policy Act before allowing construction to start, the commission said. It described Sierra Club's argument that FERC did not adequately consider impacts on environmental justice communities as "an improper collateral attack" on the authorization order.

Chesapeake Energy wants to make LNG deals, invest in export terminal --Shale gas producer Chesapeake Energy will try to capitalize on its enlarged Haynesville Shale position along the US Gulf Coast by cutting more deals for LNG exports priced at global indexes, executives said. The company might take a stake in an LNG terminal in the future and is already looking for direct contracts with overseas consumers, all in an effort to get higher prices, Chesapeake CEO and President Nick Dell'Osso said on a May 5 call to discuss first-quarter earnings. Chesapeake is joining its shale gas competitors in pressing for pipeline improvements and new LNG export terminals to ship gas to Europe and break the continent's dependence on Russian natural gas after the invasion of Ukraine. "If the deal is linked to Henry Hub [in the US], that is not as attractive to us," "What we are trying to diversify into is some sort of LNG index deal" at, for example, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, or TTF. Singh said Chesapeake's natural gas production in the Haynesville, certified as lower in emissions, will attract European companies and other buyers interested in low-carbon gas. Observers said deals are in the works. . "Chesapeake expects to have an announcement this year — stay tuned." Dell'Osso said he doubts US natural gas prices, currently at 14-year highs above $8/MMBtu, will remain elevated for long. "The prompt month prices are so far above break-evens for supply in the US that we just don't expect that to be a persistent price environment. ... There are ample resources in this country to drive prices below $4 at the long end of the curve." Chesapeake raised its estimate of 2022 adjusted free cash flow to $2.7 billion, with $532 million of free cash reported in the first quarter, a company record. Chesapeake kept first-quarter capital spending to $344 million, below its guidance, while producing 60,000 barrels of oil per day and 3.2 Bcf/d of natural gas, slightly above guidance. Chesapeake is under pressure from activist shareholder Kimmeridge Energy Management Company to increase the value of its shares by shedding shale oil operations in Texas and focus on natural gas alone. "Chesapeake trades at one of the lowest valuation multiples and highest [free cash flow] yields in the sector despite the company's high quality assets in the core of the Marcellus and Haynesville," Kimmeridge said in an email May 5. "The stock has materially underperformed its gas-weighted peers, which we believe is a direct result of the lack of strategic clarity coming out of bankruptcy."

US Midstreamers Using Expansions as 'Quick Market Solutions' for Rising Production - U.S. midstream operators are focusing on incremental additions to their natural gas infrastructure in the Haynesville Shale, Permian and Appalachia basins as quicker and lower-risk solutions to rising production growth. DCP Midstream LP is in “advanced discussions” with its partners on the Gulf Coast Express Pipeline (GCX) to bring “quick and efficient” capacity to the market via an expansion, according to management. CEO Wouter van Kempen last week said an open season was set to be launched “in the coming days” for the 2 Bcf/d Permian conduit. The pipeline is co-owned and operated by Kinder Morgan Inc., whose management team discussed the potential expansion with investors last month. Altus Midstream Co. also is an owner in the 530-mile pipeline, while Targa Resources Corp. sold its 25% stake earlier this year to an undisclosed buyer. “The good thing about GCX…you don’t have to go through a lot of right-of-way. There’s not a lot of uncertainty. It’s a fairly quick market solution,” van Kempen said on DCP’s first quarter 2022 earnings call. Management also is considering taking an additional equity investment in the pipeline. “In general, we like the asset,” the CEO said. “It’s a great strategic fit with our asset base. It’s fee-based; it complements the portfolio.” Van Kempen said that with a strong long-term outlook for U.S. production, opportunities across DCP’s footprint are increasing, “and we’re positioned to respond.” He noted, however, that DCP recognizes that a key component to taking advantage of these opportunities is ensuring downstream natural gas liquids and natural gas takeaway options for its customers. “Over the last 10 years, DCP has built a solid track record of developing and driving downstream solutions as residue takeaway has become a focal point for the Permian and a potential bottleneck to growth,” he said. To that end, DCP is adding large-diameter gathering lines and compression to optimize and enhance its gathering system in the Permian’s Midland sub-basin. Utilization is expected to increase in the second half of the year given increased activity among private producers, according to management. “Currently, we benefit from having available capacity, and we’re positioned to invest as necessary to fill it,” van Kempen said. DCP also is prioritizing investments in the Delaware sub-basin. The midstreamer is expanding the pipeline network and adding compression in order to align with its customers’ production schedules. Management reiterated its expectations for production in the region to grow between 5 and 7% year/year in 2022. “We’re seeing a number of opportunities in these growing areas, but we will continue to take a disciplined approach when deploying capital,” van Kempen said. The company spent $9 million in expansion capital expenditures (capex) and equity investments during the first quarter. Sustaining capex totaled $13 million. DJ Assets Filled To The Max

Energy Transfer Building Export Options Via Haynesville, Permian for LNG and Lots of Liquids -With customer demand growing, Energy Transfer LP’s management team is confident that the Lake Charles, LA, natural gas export project will be sanctioned before the end of the year. During the recent first quarter conference call, Co-CEO Tom Mason said “we’re really excited about where we are today” regarding the pending liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Louisiana. “We’ve got really strong demand from really high-quality customers.” Mason told analysts. “We’re really confident” about making a positive final investment decision (FID) by year’s end. “Of course, the marketing and the offtake agreements are key to getting a deal done.”An application to extend the construction deadline has been extended to 2028 by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. A bid process is underway to secure engineering, procurement and contracting. “So I think things are going well, and we’re really excited about it,” Mason said of Lake Charles. The world’s kind of gone upside down with what’s going on in Ukraine” and accelerated the demand for more gas. That in turn has led to “good progress” on netting contracts.COO Mackie McCrea said interest in the Lake Charles facility had “really taken off” following Russia’s invasion into Ukraine.“It’s sad it took a travesty like what’s going on in Ukraine to wake up the world,” Mackie said. “It certainly has woken up Europe and Asia and China. Hopefully, they’ll wake up some of our administrators,” he said of the federal government.“We’ve got an enormous amount of interest, as you can imagine, and we would be shocked if we don’t get to FID by the end of this year…”With the FID, management is “also looking forward to all the upstream pipeline transportation business that will come with that project.”Asked if Energy Transfer was getting inquiries from European utilities about obtaining natural gas supply, Mason demurred.“It’s an interesting question because the utilities are kind of struggling with trying to satisfy their immediate and near-term demand for gas, as you could imagine. But for long-term contracts, they’re still interested. I think there’s been some issues with financial matters based on the high price of demand for natural gas currently. And so there could end up being some government guarantees for some of the longer-term offtake contracts, so we’re certainly in contact with them.”For now, there’s been “a lack of real commitments for long-term contracts at this point,” Mackie said.Energy Transfer’s original partner for Lake Charles was Shell plc, but the supermajor pulled out in 2020 as the market faltered.Energy Transfer continues to look for partners, though, Mason explained. The plan is “to do some portion of equity sell down to primarily infrastructure funds. There’s lots of money that is looking for high-quality, long-term cash flow from a project like this. So, we think that’s going to be a really good way of financing it. We expect that we keep at least 25% of the project.“We haven’t made final decisions on that yet, but…there’s just a lot of interest in the equity side of this project.”

Why EPA might make new gas plants catch carbon - It has been seven years since EPA finalized a rule requiring new coal-fired power plants to capture and store a share of their carbon emissions. Despite litigation and a proposed repeal by the Trump administration, it is still in place. Now EPA is preparing to demand that newly built natural gas-fired generators do more to limit their own emissions. And environmentalists hope the new rule, expected later this year, will also rely on an aggressive technology like carbon capture, utilization and storage, or CCUS, to deliver deep cuts in climate pollution. No gas-fired generators currently use that technology. A draft white paper that EPA released last month and is now taking public comment on lays out technical options for CO2 abatement at new gas power plants. Its section on CCUS cites a combined-cycle gas plant in Massachusetts that captured up to 95 percent of its CO2 for use in carbonated beverages — until it shuttered in 2005. A power plant with CCUS is slated to come online in Scotland in 2026. Industry advocates, including some who back the development of CCUS for gas plants, have suggested EPA would struggle to show that the technology is ready to be the basis of a rule. Jeff Holmstead, a partner at Bracewell LLC, said that EPA might have released the white paper to signal to industry that it would eventually promulgate a rule requiring steeper carbon cuts through a technology like CCUS, which is currently a focus of Energy Department research and development. DOE received more than $2.5 billion for a CCUS demonstration program in the infrastructure law last year. The spending will support at least two pilot projects at natural gas generators. “By talking about CCS and hydrogen, they show that they’re thinking about the longer-term question of what ultimately are we going to do with gas plants that will be needed to maintain reliability for many years,” said Holmstead, who headed the EPA air office under President George W. Bush. “But I wouldn’t read that as saying that CCS or hydrogen are really on the table for the rulemaking they have to do in the next year.” Holmstead said the paper makes it clear that those technologies aren’t adequately demonstrated yet.

NYMEX Henry Hub, US spot gas prices plunge, production gains ease tight supply | S&P Global Commodity Insights - Prices for US natural gas spot and futures plunged in May 9 trading amid higher US gas production and a forecast reprieve from the late-season cold snaps that have kept residential-commercial demand elevated. The NYMEX Henry Hub prompt-month contract fell $1.017 to $7.026/MMBtu on May 9, preliminary settlement data from the CME Group showed. The pricing movement was the prompt-month's largest single day movement since late January, with daily swings of more than $1 in either direction rare even as volatility has increased in recent months. May 9 marked a second consecutive trading session of downward momentum for the NYMEX Henry Hub June, as the contract stepped back from the 13-year high of $8.783/MMBtu reached on May 5. Spot gas prices across the United States also tumbled in May 9 trading for next-day flows, with the historic futures rally pulling physical prices along for the ride in recent weeks. Daily decreases ranged from 30 cents to more than $1/MMBtu, with most pricing locations in all regions remaining in a range of $7-$8/MMBtu, preliminary settlement data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed. US gas production has increased over the last week to average 94.3 Bcf/d May 7-9, up from averaging 93.2 Bcf/d in the seven days prior from April 30-May 6, according to data from S&P Global. Gas production crossed the 94 Bcf/d threshold on only eight occasions during the first four months of 2022, with year-to-date production averaging 93.1 Bcf/d. The recent production increases largely came from the Permian, SCOOP/STACK, and Bakken – all associated natural gas basins. Platts has assessed its US Gulf Coast benchmark American Gulf Coast Select above $100/b month-to-date, with the price rising above $110/b on some days this month. Even as US gas production has risen, the unseasonably cold temperatures that have struck the Northeast and Central IS regions in recent weeks were forecast to thaw over the next seven days. So far this May, Northeast res-comm demand has come in 510 MMcf, or 10%, higher than the same time last year. Similarly, local demand for gas in the Midcontinent and Midwest has come in around 940 MMcf, or 7%, higher month-to-date compared to the year prior. A forecast heat wave could keep a floor under gas prices over the next week, with gas-fired power demand absorbing some of the higher production. The Midcontinent and Texas are forecast to bear the brunt of the above-average temperatures through May 14, CustomWeather forecasts showed. The average Midcontinent temperature is expected to come in 17 degrees higher than normal during May 10-12 and 10 degrees higher on May 13. Similarly, Texas was forecast to see the average temperature come in seven to 11 degrees above normal May 9-12.

Natural Gas Futures Rebound as Supply Worries Smolder Natural gas futures on Tuesday bounced back from punishing losses the two previous sessions, as traders assessed choppy domestic production levels and new threats to global supplies amid reports of Russian forces interrupting flows to Europe. The June Nymex gas futures contract settled at $7.385/MMBtu, up 35.9 cents day/day. It marked a stark reversal after the prompt month dropped nearly $2.00 over the two prior regular sessions. July advanced 36.1 cents on Tuesday to $7.467. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., however, posted a hefty loss for a third straight day, falling 72.5 cents to $6.510. A combination of threats to economic growth – soaring inflation and rising interest rates – and uncertainty imposed by the war in Ukraine raised the specter of recession and rattled equity and commodity markets in recent days. Signs of increased production also boosted the bear case for natural gas prices early this week. But futures bounced back as spring maintenance work hampered production again heading into Tuesday, forcing estimate reductions. After hovering around 96 Bcf to start the week –approaching 2022 highs– Wood Mackenzie lowered its estimate Tuesday by roughly 1.2 Bcf/ to 94.9 Bcf/d. Northeast production was most heavily impacted, with volumes down around 660 MMcf/d, Wood Mackenzie analyst Laura Munder said. Broadly, “declines are in areas where there is some maintenance underway,” she said. Producers have struggled to maintain steady levels of output this spring because of a combination of planned shoulder season maintenance and severe weather interruptions. The output challenges continue as summer cooling demand arrives and global calls for U.S. exports hold at elevated levels amid the war in Ukraine. European countries are moving aggressively to sever ties with Russian natural gas in opposition to the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. They are turning to the United States to help fill the void, fueling near-record levels of demand for American liquefied natural gas (LNG). A new catalyst emerged on that front Tuesday, when Gas TSO of Ukraine (GTSOU) reported a force majeure affecting key hubs in Ukraine through which Russian gas flows to Europe. GTSOU blamed disruptions caused by Russian military forces. While Europe is working to wean itself from Russian supplies, it still counts on Kremlin-backed energy sources for about one-third of its natural gas needs heading into summer.

U.S. natgas rises 4% on lower daily output, higher demand this week - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained about 4% on Wednesday on a big drop in daily output over the past three days and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected. The shutdown of a pipeline carrying Russian gas through Ukraine also helped support U.S. gas futures after temporarily lifting European prices. European futures, which were actually down about 2% on Wednesday, have stabilized in recent weeks at what are still very high levels relative to U.S. prices. That is because European stockpiles were filling fast as Russia kept supplying fuel via pipelines and high European prices continued to attract liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and elsewhere. U.S. front-month gas futures for June delivery rose 25.5 cents, or 3.5%, to settle at $7.640 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That leaves the U.S. contract down about 13% from a 13-year closing high on May 5 but up about 106% so far this year as higher global prices keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading around $29 per mmBtu in Europe and $23 in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states climbed to 94.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May from 94.5 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in November 2021. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 2.5 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary two-week low of 93.5 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in Texas. Preliminary data is often revised. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 90.5 bcfd this week to 89.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday, while its outlook for next week was lower. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.3 bcfd so far in May from 12.2 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. Russia exported about 9.0 bcfd of gas to Europe on Tuesday on the three mainlines into Germany - North Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the route from Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany - down from an average of around 11.9 bcfd in May 2021. Gas stockpiles in Northwest Europe - Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands - were about 16% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year, down from 39% below the five-year norm in mid-March, according to Refinitiv. Storage was currently about 34% of full capacity. U.S. inventories, meanwhile, were also around 16% below their five-year norm.

Weekly US gas storage injection tops analyst forecast at 76 Bcf | S&P Global Market Intelligence - Natural gas storage operators deposited a net 76 Bcf into Lower 48 inventories during the week ended May 6, below the five-year-average build of 82 Bcf, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. The injection, which topped the 74 Bcf forecast by an S&P Global Platts analyst survey, brought total working gas supply to 1,643 Bcf, or 376 Bcf below the year-ago level and 312 Bcf below the five-year average. By region:

• * In the East, storage levels grew 21 Bcf on the week at 274 Bcf, down 21% from a year earlier.
• * In the Midwest, inventories were up 18 Bcf at 342 Bcf, 25% under the year before.
• * In the Mountain region, stockpiles were up 4 Bcf at 96 Bcf, 26% under a year earlier.
• * In the Pacific region, stockpiles grew 7 Bcf at 183 Bcf, down 21% from a year earlier.
• * In the South Central region, stockpiles were up 28 Bcf at 749 Bcf, 12% below the year before. Of that total, 241 Bcf was in salt cavern facilities and 507 Bcf was in non-salt-cavern facilities. Working gas stocks were up 3.4% in salt cavern facilities from the week before and were up 3.7% in non-salt-cavern facilities.

U.S. natgas up on small storage build, soaring European prices (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose about 1% on Thursday on a smaller than normal weekly storage build and a jump in European gas prices on Russian supply concerns. European gas futures soared by as much as 22% after gas flows from Russia declined following the shutdown of a pipe in Ukraine and on worries Russian sanctions on some European energy firms could lead to further gas supply disruptions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended May 6. That was a little less than the 79-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 70 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 82 bcf. U.S. front-month gas futures for June delivery rose 9.9 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $7.739 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Since the start of the year, U.S. gas futures have more than doubled, as higher global prices kept demand for U.S. LNG exports strong since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading around $31 per mmBtu in Europe and $24 in Asia. The U.S. contract rose to a 13-year high near $9 on May 6. The U.S. gas market remains mostly shielded from those higher global prices because the United States is the world's top gas producer, with all the fuel it needs for domestic use while capacity constraints inhibit exports of more LNG no matter how high global prices rise.

U.S. natgas futures slide 1% on lower demand forecasts, price drop in Europe (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Friday on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand in two weeks and a 5% drop in European gas futures even though exports from Russia declined due to sanctions and the shutdown of a pipe in Ukraine. Supporting U.S. prices, Texas was bracing for another heatwave next week that should boost power demand for air conditioning to a monthly record high. U.S. front-month gas futures for June delivery fell 7.6 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $7.663 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That put the contract down about 5% for the week after rising about 11% last week. U.S. gas futures remained up about 106% since the start of the year as higher global prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading around $30 per mmBtu in Europe and $23 in Asia. The U.S. contract rose to a 13-year high near $9 on May 6. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states climbed to 94.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May from 94.5 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in November 2021. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 90.5 bcfd this week to 89.8 bcfd next week and 89.5 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants held at 12.2 bcfd so far in May, the same as April. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG.

Colonial Pipeline facing $1,000,000 fine for poor recovery plans – If you were in the US this time last year, you won’t have forgotten, and you may even have been affected by, the ransomware attack on fuel-pumping company Colonial Pipeline.The organisation was hit by ransomware injected into its network by so-called affiliates of a cybercrime crew known as DarkSide.DarkSide is an example of what’s known as RaaS, short for ransomware-as-a-service, where a small core team of criminals create the malware and handle any extortion payments from victims, but don’t perform the actual network attacks where the malware gets unleashed.Teams of “affiliates” (field technicians, you might say), sign up to carry out the attacks, usually in return for the lion’s share of any blackmail money extracted from victims.The core criminals lurk less visibly in the background, running what is effectively a franchise operation in which they typically pocket 30% (or so they say) of every payment, almost as though they looked to legitimate online services such as Apple’s iTunes or Google Play for a percentage that the market was familiar with.The front-line attack teams typically:

• Perform reconnaissance to find targets they think they can breach.
• Break in to selected companies with vulnerabilities they know how to exploit.
• Wrangle their way to administrative powers so they are level with the official sysadmins.
• Map out the network to find every desktop and server system they can.
• Locate and often neutralise existing backups.
• Exfiltrate confidential corporate data for extra blackmail leverage.
• Open up network backdoors so they can sneak back quickly if they’re spotted this time.
• Gently probe existing malware defences looking for weak or unprotected spots.
• Turn off or reduce security settings that are getting in their way.
• Pick a particularly troublesome time of day or night…

…and then they automatically unleash the ransomware code they were supplied with by the core gang members, sometimes scrambling all (or almost all) computers on the network within just a few minutes.

 Widespread US Diesel Shortages Send Crack Spreads To Mindblowing Highs - Global stocks of refined petroleum products have fallen to critically low levels as refineries prove unable to keep up with surging demand especially for the diesel-like fuels used in manufacturing and freight transportation. The result has been a surge in prices refiners receive for selling fuels compared with prices they pay for buying crude and other feedstocks, boosting their profitability significantly.In the United States, refiners currently receive roughly an average of more than $150 per barrel from the sale of gasoline and diesel at wholesale prices, while paying only around $100 to purchase crude.The indicative 3-2-1 margin of $50 per barrel is based on the assumption a refinery produces two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of diesel from refining three barrels of crude. The margin is meant to be representative for an “average” refinery and is a gross figure out of which refiners have to pay for labor, electricity, gas, hydrogen, catalysts, pipeline transport and the cost of capital.Net margins are narrower and refinery costs have been rising rapidly as result of widespread inflation ripping through the economy following the coronavirus pandemic. Nonetheless, even allowing for rising input costs, gross margins have more than doubled from $20 at the end of 2021, ensuring refiners have a strong financial incentive to maximize crude processing and fuel production.Gross margins are currently higher for making diesel (almost $60 per barrel) than for gasoline ($45 per barrel) reflecting the relative shortage of middle distillates.U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks are 31 million barrels (23%) below the pre-pandemic five-year average compared with a deficit of only 6 million barrels (3%) in gasoline.The squeeze on fuel inventories and refinery capacity is compounding already high prices for crude caused by sanctions on Russia and output restraint by OPEC+ and U.S. shale producers. The resumption of international passenger aviation as quarantine restrictions are lifted is tightening the fuel market even further because jet fuel is broadly similar to diesel and gas oil.The effective wholesale price of diesel has climbed to over $160 per barrel while gasoline is trading at over $150, based on futures for delivery in New York Harbor.Once distributors’ and retailers’ margins and taxes are included, the average price at the pump paid by motorists has climbed to $236 per barrel for diesel and $186 per barrel for gasoline.The refining margins and fuel prices cited in this column are all for the United States but the same shortage of refining capacity and fuel inventories is boosting diesel prices in Europe, and dragging up gasoline prices with them. There is scope for refiners to increase fuel production by postponing non-essential maintenance and running refineries flat out into the early autumn. And some room to adjust the output mix by switching from maximum gasoline to maximum diesel mode in downstream processing units. But any increase in diesel production is unlikely to be able to reverse the depletion of inventories fully and return them to pre-pandemic levels. Prices will therefore have to continue rising until they begin to restrain consumption or the economy enters a cyclical downturn.

Louisiana legislator pushes bills benefiting the oil and gas industry — and her husband - More than 300 people were evacuated from their homes and 49 hospitalized when a carbon dioxide pipeline run by an oil and gas company ruptured in a rural community in Mississippi. People were described as wandering around “like zombies” in the aftermath of the February 2020 incident.Less than a week later, Sharon Hewitt, a Louisiana state senator who has considered running for governor, filed a bill drafted by the operator of that pipeline, Denbury Resources, into her own state’s legislature.The law, passed in 2020, could make it more difficult for Louisiana landowners to dispute CO₂ pipelines, which are used to transport carbon pollution captured from fossil fuel projects. The bill was introduced and signed into law the same year that Hewitt’s husband, Stan, earned up to $4,999 in royalties from Denbury, according to Hewitt’s 2020 financial disclosure statement.. There have been other instances when Sharon Hewitt, who previously worked at Shell, has pushed for laws that would benefit her husband’s company, according to public records shared with Floodlight. Stan Hewitt has worked as an engineer for nearly a decade at LLOG Exploration. The firm is among more than 200 oil and gas companies that are embroiled in lawsuits brought by seven parishes, including New Orleans, over damage to Louisiana’s wetlands, which protect coastal communities from storms and store carbon – the primary greenhouse gas driving climate change. Hewitt sponsored two bills and one resolution aimed at negating the lawsuits brought by the coastal communities against oil and gas companies – including LLOG. In the past three years, she has introduced, co-sponsored and voted on at least four other pieces of legislation that would benefit the oil company her husband works for or his fossil fuel investments. Sharon Hewitt, her husband, Stan, and Denbury Resources, which is now called Denbury Inc, did not respond to multiple requests for comment. “It’s so brazenly personal,” There is a long history in the Louisiana state capitol of legislators passing laws that profit their respective industries, but public policy experts point to Hewitt’s record as evidence of the oil and gas industry’s outsized influence at the legislature, despite its diminishing role in the state’s economy. Louisiana is experiencing more intense storms, coastal flooding and tornadoes that strike at night because of climate change, and lawmakers like Hewitt are digging in to protect industry. While introducing the bill Denbury drafted, Senate Bill 353, Hewitt in a May 2020 legislative committee hearing described the measure as a “great example of collaboration between the department and the industry”. Public documents shared with Floodlight by EPI show that Hewitt worked closely with the oil and gas industry in multiple instances, including drafting legislation, writing testimony supporting it and sorting out legal problems.

Biden nixes three offshore oil lease sales, curbing new drilling this year - The Interior Department confirmed Wednesday that it will not hold three oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Alaska that had been scheduled to take place, taking millions of acres off the auction block.The decision, which comes as U.S. gas prices have reached record highs, effectively ends the possibility of the federal government holding a lease sale in coastal waters this year. The Biden administration is poised to let the nationwide offshore drilling program expire next month without a new plan in place.While President Biden has spoken in recent weeks about the need to supply oil and gas to Europe so those nations can stop importing energy from Russia in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the move would mark a victory for climate activists intent on curbing U.S. fossil fuel leasing.Barring unexpected action, the current five-year offshore drilling program will lapse at the end of June. Interior cannot hold any new oil and gas lease sales until it has completed a replacement plan. But though the federal government is legally obligated to prepare one, the administration has not released its proposal, nor have officials said when it might be coming.The program’s looming expiration means the government doesn’t have enough time left to hold the three remaining oil and gas lease sales scheduled under the current plan. Interior spokeswoman Melissa Schwartz cited a lack of interest from oil companies, as well as legal obstacles and a time crunch, as reasons for nixing the planned auctions.In an email Wednesday evening, Schwartz said the department “will not move forward” with a roughly 1 million-acre sale in Alaska’s Cook Inlet “due to lack of industry interest in leasing in the area.”She added that the department will not hold “lease sales 259 and 261 in the Gulf of Mexico region as a result of delays due to factors including conflicting court rulings that impacted work on these proposed lease sales.”Environmentalists praised the move, but the oil and gas industry and Republicans voiced dismay. Offshore drillers have sought to raise the alarm for months about the leasing program’s June 30 expiration date, saying that a lapse in the program would cost thousands of jobs and billions in lost tax revenue.Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, which represents offshore energy companies, said in an interview Thursday that the expiration of the offshore leasing program will chill investment in the Gulf of Mexico.“Over the past few years, there have been several announcements of new projects coming online, so it’s very positive," he said. “However, we’re not going to be able to continue with that trend if we can’t get new leases.”

U.S. Shale Swings From Losses To Record Cash Flows After years of plowing money into boosting production and thus depressing oil prices, the U.S. shale patch emerged from the pandemic-inflicted slump with unwavering capital discipline which, combined with $100+ oil, is paying off with record cash flows for American oil producers. The largest shale producers have left years of bleeding cash behind, focusing on returning capital to shareholders from the record cash flows they have been generating for several months now. As they report first-quarter figures these days, public companies vow continued disciplined spending and only modest production growth as “drill, baby, drill” is no longer shale’s primary goal. Investors, in turn, are rewarding the discipline—most of the 20 top-returning firms in the S&P 500 year to date are oil companies, including Occidental, Coterra Energy, Valero, Marathon Oil, APA, Halliburton, Devon Energy, Hess Corporation, Marathon Petroleum, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Schlumberger, EOG Resources, and Pioneer Natural Resources. As a result of the highest oil prices since 2014 and capex discipline, the shale patch is on track for massive free cash flows of a combined $172 billion in 2022 alone, per Deloitte estimates cited by Bloomberg. By 2020, the shale industry had booked $300 billion in net negative cash flow in the 15 years since the first shale boom, Deloitte estimated back then.Unlike in the previous upcycles, U.S. producers are now directing a large part of the record cash flows to boost shareholder returns with higher dividends, special dividends, and share buybacks. U.S. producers do not plan to abandon the newly-found capital discipline and will grow production only modestly, the top executives at most public shale producers said during the Q1 earnings calls this week. Many firms acknowledged the supply chain, inflationary, and labor constraints that could result in slower American oil production growth than the increase the EIA and analysts expect. Producers are also wary of the Biden Administration’s calls for only a short-term ramp-up in production amid otherwise negative comments on the oil industry, which undermines the firms’ visibility and willingness to plan higher investments in the medium term. “To say bluntly, the administration's comments are certainly causing a lot of uncertainty in the market, both in the terms of regulatory taxation, legislation, and negative rhetoric toward our industry. And that creates uncertainty in our owners', our shareholders' minds about what the future of this industry really is,” Diamondback Energy’s CEO Travis Stice said on the earnings call this week. Diamondback Energy will keep its current oil production levels of 220,000 net barrels of oil per day, Stice said. Another producer, Devon Energy generated $1.3 billion of free cash flow for the first quarter, its highest-ever quarterly FCF. Continental Resources “delivered a record quarter of adjusted earnings per share and exceptional free cash flow generation,” CFO John Hart said as the shale giant announced a fifth consecutive increase to quarterly dividend.Chesapeake Energy, which went through a bankruptcy during 2020, reported $532 million in adjusted free cash flow for Q1, its highest quarterly FCF ever, and launched a $1-billion share and warrant repurchase program. Pioneer Natural Resources, for its part, will be returning 88% of its first-quarter free cash flow of $2.3 billion to shareholders, while keeping disciplined oil growth of up to 5%, CEO Scott Sheffield said.

Fracking Boom Turns Texas Into the Earthquake Capital of the U.S. - Earthquakes were never anything people in West Texas thought much about. Years would pass in between tremors that anybody felt. Even after the shale revolution arrived in force a decade ago and oil crews started drilling frantically in the region’s vast Permian Basin, there seemed to be no impact on the land.But then, suddenly, in 2015, there were six earthquakes that topped 3.0 on the Richter scale. And then six again the next year. And then the numbers just exploded: 17 became 78 became 181. And in the first three months of 2022 alone, there were another 59, putting the year on pace to set a fresh record. Lower the threshold to include tiny tremors and the numbers run into the thousands.All of which means that West Texas, the proud oil-drilling capital of America, is now also on the cusp of becoming the earthquake capital of America. Even California and Alaska, home to massive fault lines and a never-ending series of tremors, appear bound to be overtaken soon at the current pace of things.There’s little doubt that there is a link between the drilling and the jump in seismic activity. Huge quantities of wastewater spew out of wells as the oil gushes out, and injecting that water back into the ground—the cheapest disposal option—puts stress on the Earth’s fault lines. Industry insiders even acknowledge as much.That none of the quakes so far has been big enough to do much damage—just a cracked wall here and a loosened skylight there—is of little comfort to those who watched a similar pattern develop in the oil towns of neighboring Oklahoma a few years ago. What followed there was a gradual pickup in size that eventually gave the tremors enough force to start ripping walls off homes and buildings. Oklahoma only broke the cycle and steadied the ground after regulators forced drillers to slow the pace of water disposal in the area and haul some of it miles away.For now, regulators in Texas, a famously hands-off bunch, are mostly just asking, rather than demanding, companies to dump less water in the ground. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sending oil prices skyrocketing over $100 a barrel, that approach will almost certainly prove insufficient, industry observers say.The Permian contains more easy-to-tap reserves than any other spot in the world, and Chevron, Exxon and scores of smaller outfits are ramping up output to take advantage of those higher prices. Half of all drilling rigs in operation in the U.S. today can be found here. Even the Biden administration has grudgingly begun to urge companies to drill more wells.And more wells will produce more wastewater, which will produce more earthquakes. “We need to be listening to what the Earth is telling us,” says Roddy Hughes, senior campaign representative for Sierra Club’s Beyond Dirty Fuels movement. The tremors, he says, just add another layer of urgency to the climate group's battle against the fossil fuel industry. “We need to be slowing production.”

 Oil Giants Sell Dirty Wells to Buyers With Looser Climate Goals, Study Finds - When Royal Dutch Shell sold off its stake in the Umuechem oil field in Nigeria last year, it was, on paper, a step forward for the company’s climate ambitions: Shell could clean up its holdings, raise money to invest in cleaner technologies, and move toward its goal of net zero emissions by 2050.As soon as Shell left, however, the oil field underwent a change so significant it was detected from space: a surge in flaring, or the wasteful burning of excess gas in towering columns of smoke and fire. Flaring emits planet-warming greenhouse gases, as well as soot, into the atmosphere.Around the world, many of the largest energy companies are expected to sell off more than $100 billion of oil fields and other polluting assets in an effort to cut their emissions and make progress toward their corporate climate goals. However, they frequently sell to buyers that disclose little about their operations, have made few or no pledges to combat climate change, and are committed to ramping up fossil fuel production.New research to be released Tuesday showed that, of 3,000 oil and gas deals made between 2017 and 2021, more than twice as many involved assets moving from operators with net-zero commitments to those that didn’t, than the reverse. That is raising concerns that the assets will continue to pollute, perhaps even at a greater rate, but away from the public eye.“You can move your assets to another company, and move the emissions off your own books, but that doesn’t equal any positive impact on the planet if it’s done without any safeguards in place,” said Andrew Baxter, who heads the energy transition team at the Environmental Defense Fund, which performed the analysis.Transactions like these expose the messy underside of the global energy transition away from fossil fuels, a shift that is imperative to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change.For the four years before the Umuechem sale in Nigeria, satellites had spotted no routine flaring from the field, which Shell, together with the European energy giants Total and Eni, operated in the Niger Delta. But immediately after those companies sold the field to a private-equity backed firm, Trans-Niger Oil & Gas, an operator with no stated net zero goals, levels of flaring quadrupled, according to data from the VIIRS satellite collected by EDF as part of the analysis. Trans-Niger said last year it intends to triple production at the field.

Civitas Builds Natural Gas, Oil Drilling Inventory in Colorado’s DJ -Denver-based Civitas Resources Inc., the largest producer in the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin, has already secured most planned drilling permits for 2022, the management team said recently. “We’re over 90% permitted for the year,” Civitas’ COO Matt Owens told analysts during the earnings call to discuss first quarter results. Civitas last year completed its takeover of DJ rivals Crestone Peak Resources, Extraction Oil & Gas Inc. and HighPoint Resources Corp. Civitas has since added 38 permitted locations in the DJ through its purchase of Bison Oil & Gas II LLC. [Want to know how global LNG demand impacts North American fundamentals? To find out, subscribe to LNG Insight.] Civitas on average produced 159,007 boe/d (43% oil, 31% natural gas, 26% NGL) in 1Q2022, up nearly seven-fold year/year from 20,850 boe/d. Full-year production guidance assumes 156,000-167,000 boe/d, 68-70% liquids-weighted. Civitas has filed two oil and gas development plan (OGDP) locations with the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC). A hearing date is “set in the near future that we expect to be approved unanimously.” Chairman Ben Dell said. Owens said the company is “working right now on 12 other OGDPs internally. We have submitted six of those also to the state and that includes just over 100 wells.” Two are in technical review, slated for a final hearing in June. The capital spending plan this year earmarks $825-950 million for drilling and completions, running 3.5 rigs and using three hydraulic fracturing crews. Capital spending for 1Q2022 totaled about $235 million, said Dell. Civitas plans to drill 190-210 horizontal wells (82% stake) this year using a 2.1-mile average lateral length. It plans to complete 165-175 gross wells and bring 155-165 online.

U.S. oil output slips as higher costs hit drillers— Weekly U.S. crude oil production declined for the first time in three months, signaling that soaring costs across the oil fields may be preventing drillers from expanding output. The decline hits as the oil-consuming nations are scrambling for additional supplies to reduce reliance on Russia and bring down the skyrocketing crude prices. President Joe Biden has urged the industry to raise supply to help battle historically high fuel inflation. Domestic crude output last week fell 100,000 barrels to 11.8 million barrels a day, after holding steady over the previous three weeks, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. The decline stems from a small drop in Alaskan volumes. Output from the rest of the US, including prolific Permian shale basin, held steady. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook report this week, the EIA lowered its production forecast through 2023. Drillers have said they are experiencing spiraling prices on everything from rigs and workers to diesel fuel and frac sand.

US oil, gas rig count gains three, totaling 806 on week; Bakken highest since April 2020: Enverus - The US oil and natural gas rig count gained another three rigs on the week, for a total 806 rigs which is well within shouting distance of pre-coronavirus pandemic levels, energy analytics and software company Enverus said May 12. Moreover, the giant Bakken oil reservoir in North Dakota/Montana has now reached its highest rig level since early April 2020. That was just a month after the pandemic struck the energy industry forcefully and oil prices dropped due to low global demand. "We do foresee continued headwinds in the form of labor shortages among the service sector, specifically on the completions crews side of things," said Taylor Cavey, senior analyst-supply and production for S&P Global Commodity Insights. Both oil-weighted and natural gas-driven plays in the eight largest domestic unconventional basins posted rig gains during the week ended May 11, Enverus figures showed. Oil rigs gained two for a total 623, while the gas rig count rose one to 183. This week's 806 rigs is inching closer to the pre-pandemic level of 838 rigs working in US domestic basins for the week ended March 4, 2020. Only a few days later, the price of oil was in the low $30s and the pandemic – which was already ongoing outside the US – had effectively settled into the energy industry. The oil and gas patch entered April 2020 at 721 rigs, a drop of 117 rigs or 14% in less than a month. After hitting bottom in early July 2020 at 279 rigs, the US fleet began to rise and has been inching forward ever since. Total US rigs crossed the 400-mark by the first week of January 2021 and numbered just over 700 in early January 2022. During the week ended May 11, the Permian Basin posted the most change with a four-rig gain, making 329. While the West Texas/New Mexico basin has seen its upticks and setbacks since then and has been mostly rangebound since mid-March, it has gained 30 rigs or 10% this year. The Permian has also led permitting activity, which in April 2022 was up by 244 or 16% on the month, according to James West, an analyst for Evercore ISI Group, a boutique energy investment bank. The giant oil and natural gas play, which is the largest oil reservoir in the US with production of just under 5.2 million b/d of oil and 15 Bcf/d of gas, led "strong activity across all basins" in April, West said. "Besides slight decreases in the Utica (-7, -100% m/m) and in other smaller plays (-6, -2% month on month), permitting activity grew in all basins," he said. "Relevant increases occurred in the Permian, the Marcellus (+148, +157%), the Powder River Basin (+87, +32%) and the DJ-Niobrara (+84, +138%)." The Marcellus Shale is sited mostly in Pennsylvania/West Virginia; the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and the DJ-Niobrara largely in Colorado.

Feds to pause fracking on 45000 acres near Chaco - Responding to a lawsuit by environmentalists, the Bureau of Land Management has agreed to reconsider a Trump-era action that had opened up fracking on 45,000 acres in the Chaco Canyon area. The settlement, which will pause all oil and gas activities on the federal parcels until the BLM makes a decision, is a victory for conservationists and tribal advocates who seek greater protections around a UNESCO World Heritage Site that Indigenous people in the region hold as sacred. The agreement comes several months after the Biden administration announced a move toward barring federal oil and gas leasing in a 10-mile zone around the Chaco Culture National Historical Park. The land that the Trump administration had approved for fracking lies at the southern edge of the proposed buffer zone, with the leased parcels overlapping the Sisnaateel Mesa Complex, which is considered important to Diné heritage and cosmology. . “Ultimately what I hope is all the leases are canceled,” said Kyle Tisdel, senior attorney with the Western Environmental Law Center. “And that the agency realizes after doing the type of analysis it should’ve done the first time that this is an incredibly sacred area — and it is an area that is incompatible with oil and gas leasing and development.” The fossil fuel industry has expressed opposition to policies that severely restrict or bar oil and gas operations in the Chaco region. Industry representatives couldn’t be reached Wednesday for comment. The BLM won’t approve any new wells, roads, pipelines or other infrastructure as it reviews the fracking leases.

Komatsu Mining leaked 400 gallons of oil into Milwaukee waterways, claims cleanup obligation met - In early December of 2021 as many were celebrating the holiday season, a major event happened in Milwaukee. 400 gallons of oil drained into the Menomonee River, after an accident at Komatsu Mining Corp on the city’s south side. The oil began to saturate the water, ending up in the Milwaukee River before anyone from the city was made aware of what happened. "Initially it was thought to be a minor spill of some waste oil on the property. It was learned, not long after, that it was a major oil spill. 400 gallons into a sewer drain that led directly into the Menomonee River. Komatsu did what it was required by law to do, immediately contacting the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, but it didn't go beyond that and that's the issue here," says Rich Rovito, who wrote about the spill for Milwaukee Magazine. The City of Milwaukee wasn't made aware of the spill until residents noticed a thick oil sheen on top of the water and reported it to the city. Rovito explains, "The lack of immediate communication allowed this oil spill to travel from the Menomonee River downstream to the Milwaukee River, into the KK [Kinnikinnick] River and into the tributaries leading to Lake Michigan." Rovito says that since the revelation of the spill, Komatsu has been "relatively upfront" about what happened and has admitted they failed to properly communicate with the city. Since then, Komatsu claims to have completed their cleanup obligation, by attempting to clean up as much of the oil as possible. Wildlife has been damaged, injuring at least a few birds which became coated in oil. But the extent of the problem remains unknown at this time and may emerge in the water life, like fish and plants, this spring. Furthermore, Rovito is unaware of any attempt by the company to inform the surrounding communities of the possible dangers posed by the oil leak. "At this point, I've not been informed that any [public awareness campaign] has gone on. Most of the communication that Komatsu did was on their website and it took a little bit - even for a seasoned reporter like myself - to find these statements on their website," says Rovito.

Indigenous women leaders say Line 5 reroute project would be cultural, environmental ‘genocide’ ⋆ Indigenous water protectors from Great Lakes tribes and their supporters are calling on a federal agency to fully review and reject a Line 5 project in northern Wisconsin, which they say would be “an act of cultural genocide” if permitted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).The embattled Line 5 pipeline originates at the tip of northwest Wisconsin and continues for 645 miles into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, under the Straits of Mackinac and out into Canada near Detroit.Enbridge, the Canadian pipeline company that owns the oil infrastructure, is seeking to remove a 12-mile section of Line 5 from the Bad River reservation and replace it with a 41-mile section outside of the reservation.Though it would be off the reservation itself, the Bad River Band of the Lake Superior Tribe of Chippewa Indians argues that the new route would still “cut through more than 900 waterways upstream” of their reservation and thereby threaten treaty lands and waters that belong to both them and the Red Cliff Band of Lake Superior Chippewa.The Indigenous leaders say the project places the tribes at “massive risk.”Both are rooted in land directly adjacent to Michigan’s western U.P. area.“Both the current Line 5 and the proposed Line 5 expansion threaten to irreversibly damage our drinking water, our ecosystems, and manoomin,” the Apr. 27 letter reads.Manoomin, or wild rice, has long served as an essential part of Anishinaabe cultural and spiritual identity. It is also a major food source and economic staple for tribes.Running an oil pipeline through major tributaries of the Bad River Watershed “would have severe long-term consequences for the unique ecology of this watershed,” the letter continues. “We consider this an act of genocide.”The nine Indigenous women leaders co-signing the letter are: Jannan J. Cornstalk, citizen of the Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians (LTBB); Rene Ann Goodrich and Aurora Conley of the Bad River Ojibwe; Gwenn Topping and Carolyn Goug’e of the Red Cliff Band; Jaime Arsenault and Dawn Goodwin of the White Earth Ojibwe; Nookomis Debra Topping of Fond du Lac (Nagajiwanaang); and Carrie Chesnik of the Oneida Nation.More than 200 endorsing organizations are listed on the letter, including the Sierra Club, Michigan Environmental Justice Coalition, West Michigan Environmental Action Council, Indigenous Environmental Network, Honor the Earth and Center for Biological Diversity.

Line 5 developer says tribal lawsuit violates 1977 treaty The decades-old oil pipeline is the focus of high-level discussions between U.S. and Canadian officials. The developer of the Line 5 pipeline last week urged a federal court to deny a tribe's efforts to shut down the aging conduit over concerns that it poses a threat to the Bad River Reservation in Wisconsin. Enbridge Inc. argued that a federal pipeline safety law barred the Bad River Band of the Lake Superior Tribe of Chippewa Indians from suing to stop the flow of western Canadian petroleum products through Wisconsin to Ontario. The effort to halt the lawsuit comes as the company faces a separate legal challenge in Michigan over the continued operation of the decades-old pipeline that has sparked high-level talks between U.S. and Canadian officials. In its motion for summary judgment Friday, Enbridge said that Congress had passed the Natural Gas Pipeline Safety Act to ensure that interstate pipelines would be subject to uniform federal safety standards, rather than having to comply with various state, local or tribal requirements. The company also pointed to a decades-old international treaty protecting the project's operation. ...

ConocoPhillips Investors Reject Plan for Stricter Climate Goals - ConocoPhillips shareholders rejected a proposal for the oil explorer to set more rigorous targets for greenhouse-gas emissions. More than 60% of shareholders voted against the plan during its annual meeting on Tuesday, according to preliminary results issued by the company. The vote was another blow to environmental activists who have been pressuring major oil companies to lay out more concrete plans to combat climate change. A similar proposal at Occidental Petroleum Corp. failed to garner enough votes this month. Dutch investor group Follow This urged ConocoPhillips and several other oil companies to set short-, medium- and long-term targets to reduce carbon emissions, including those of its customers, in line with the Paris Agreement. ConocoPhillips’ board opposed the measure, arguing in its proxy statement that producers that don’t refine or distribute oil and gas shouldn’t be responsible for customer emissions. The company also said its investors are not clamoring for more emissions targets, and that it’s investing in carbon capture and hydrogen to help the world decarbonize. Shareholders also rejected a proposal by nonprofit ethics group National Legal and Policy Center that urged ConocoPhillips to disclose its lobbying communications and payments in an annual report. Oil companies have faced mounting pressure in recent years to disclose lobbying efforts on a variety of climate legislation.

Congress passes legislation in effort to improve oil spill response in Western Alaska -- Legislation by Congress was passed on March 29 with the goal of improving oil spill response in Western Alaska. The Alaska Chadux̂ Network issued a press release praising the passage of House Resolution 6865, which was named the “Don Young Coast Guard Authorization Act of 2022.” President and CEO of the Alaska Chadux̂ Network Buddy Custard said believes that the bill will have a positive impact by enacting clear rules for the standards of response in Western Alaska. The release said that oil spill response standards in Western Alaska are currently administered on a need by need basis, which allows vessel owners and operators to operate under their own standards. The passage of the legislation establishes measurable standards, which include vessel tracking, monitoring, requirements to preposition oil spill resources at strategic locations; and preventing double-counting of equipment that is used for other response purposes.“The oil spill response system in Western Alaska is broken, and Section 510 of H.R. 6865 is an excellent start on a solution to fix it,” Custard said in the release. “Standards for oil spill response that work in the Lower 48 don’t translate well to Alaska. The vast distance challenges, lack of infrastructure, and harsh weather call for a different set of criteria appropriate to meet the demands of our unique environment and protect it long-term.”Custard said in an interview that he feels oil spill rules for the Western portion of the state have become inconsistent, and said that he wants to see the same standards in the Lower 48 applied to Alaska, but catered to the unique landscape. “Living up here, the vast distances, I mean it’s huge and then the lack of infrastructure, and then the other challenge we have is the weather, as you know. In the marine environment it’s very unforgiving out there so we just want to make sure that the standards that we want to see developed can meet these challenges that are fitted for Alaska,” said Custard.

OPEC Antitrust Effort Revived by USA Senate - Oil prices at historic highs are bolstering a decades-long effort to subject OPEC to U.S. antitrust laws. A key Senate committee is expected to approve legislation allowing the U.S. to sue the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for manipulating energy markets. The vote by the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday would pave the way for full Senate consideration. While the so-called Nopec bill has been introduced many times over the past two decades -- never to any avail -- it now comes as record pump prices stoke already historic inflation. “Its prospects for passage look better than they have in 15 years,” said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners. Whether such a measure could actually rein in runaway prices is another matter. The oil market has been upended since the bill last gained traction in 2019, reshaped by a global pandemic that briefly destroyed demand and supply war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that flooded the market with crude and helped send oil futures below zero for the first time ever. Now, the world is short on oil, with Russia frozen out of international trade and OPEC and its allies contending with capacity constraints that limit their ability to raise output. The U.S., as the world’s No. 1 oil producer, has the most power to tame prices by raising production, but companies enjoying historic profits are reluctant to accelerate growth. It’s unclear when, or if, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will bring the measure, authored by Iowa’s conservative Republican Chuck Grassley, to the floor. “Obviously OPEC is a problem,” Schumer said last week, adding that he’s more focused on forthcoming legislation to beef up the Federal Trade Commission’s authority to go after gasoline price manipulation. One path forward would be to incorporate the bill into a broader supplemental spending package being considered by Congress to provide aid to war torn Ukraine, according to Clearview. “If that were to occur, the bill could become law within a matter of weeks,” the firm said in a note. It’s also unclear whether President Joe Biden, who has appealed to OPEC to raise production in response to high prices, would sign a bill targeting the cartel. When Congress passed a version of the bill in 2007, it died under veto threat from President George W. Bush who said it could lead to oil supply disruptions as well as “retaliatory action against American interests.”

UAE, Saudi Arabia energy ministers hit back at NOPEC bill --Top OPEC ministers have hit back at new U.S. legislation intended to regulate its output, saying such efforts would bring greater chaos to energy markets. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told CNBC Tuesday that OPEC was being unfairly targeted over the energy crisis, and moves by U.S. lawmakers to disrupt its established system of production could see oil prices shoot up by as much as 300%. "If you hinder that system, you need to watch what you're asking for, because having a chaotic market you would see … a 200% or 300% increase in the prices that the world cannot handle," Al Mazrouei told CNBC's Dan Murphy during a panel at the World Utilities Congress in Abu Dhabi. The U.S. Senate Committee on Thursday passed a new bipartisan No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels (NOPEC) bill with a 17-4 majority, marking a significant step forward in the decades-old proposal. The bill, which aims to protect U.S. consumers and businesses from engineered spikes in energy prices, would see the alliance open to antitrust lawsuits for orchestrating supply cuts that raise global crude prices. To take effect, it would now need to be passed by the full Senate and the House, before being signed into law by the president. OPEC and its partners have faced pressure from consuming countries, including the U.S. and Japan, for not producing more crude oil amid rising prices and surging inflation. As of Tuesday, Brent oil was trading at around $102 a barrel. Al Mazrouei acknowledged that some members were falling short of their production quotas, but added that the alliance was doing its part to meet global demand amid ongoing geopolitical pressures, namely the war in Ukraine. "We, OPEC+, cannot compensate for the whole 100% of the world requirement," he said. "How much we produce, that is our share. And, actually, I would bet that we are doing much more."

The NOPEC Bill Could Send Oil Prices To $300 -If the U.S. passes the NOPEC bill, a bill designed to pave the way for lawsuits against OPEC members for market manipulation, the oil market could face even more chaos. OPEC’s most influential energy ministers warned against passing the legislation, suggesting it could send oil prices soaring by 200% or 300%. “The last thing we want is someone trying to hinder that system,” the UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said at a conference in Abu Dhabi, referring to the system OPEC has had in place for decades to ensure supply to the market is adequate (adequate according to OPEC’s view). “If you hinder that system, you need to watch what you’re asking for, because having a chaotic market you would see … a 200% or 300% increase in the prices that the world cannot handle,” al-Mazrouei said at a panel at the World Utilities Congress hosted by CNBC’s Dan Murphy. As gasoline prices in America hit record highs, some lawmakers are looking to resurrect the NOPEC legislation that would allow the U.S. Attorney General to sue OPEC or its member states for antitrust behavior. Forms of a NOPEC bill have been considered in Congress committees for nearly two decades, but they have never moved past committee discussions. Now OPEC is warning of greater market chaos if NOPEC becomes law. But it’s not only OPEC that has been warning about the implications for America in setting a precedent to remove sovereign immunity. The most powerful oil lobby in the United States, the American Petroleum Institute (API), is also against such legislation, arguing it would bring unintended harm to America’s oil and gas industry and American interests in the world. So is the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, while the White House expressed “concerns” about the potential implications of such a law.Last week, the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee approved the so-called No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act (NOPEC). Forms of antitrust legislation aimed at OPEC were discussed at various times under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, but they both threatened to veto such legislation.This time, it’s unclear if the bill would be moved for discussion at the Senate, or then to President Joe Biden’s desk, and it’s unclear whether he would sign such legislation into law.

Canadian Natural Increases Natural Gas Output by 25%, as Commodity Prices Roar - Record natural gas production and stronger commodity prices propelled Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNRL) in the first three months of this year, enabling returns to shareholders and corporate debt reduction. Natural gas production jumped by 25% in 1Q2022 from a year earlier to 2 Bcf/d, management noted. Liquids production hovered at 945,809 b/d, off from 979,352 because of plant maintenance and processing limits. The gas gains followed a move last year to o boost production from the Montney Shale, following a series of transactions that increased its holdings to 1.3 million acres. “We are resilient through the commodity price cycle while generating substantial returns in today’s environment.” The northern Alberta mainstay oilsands operations produced 691,569 b/d in the quarter, down from 736,333 b/d in 1Q2021. The flows were 62% upgraded synthetic crude oil (SCO) and 38% lower grade bitumen. CNRL fetched an average natural gas price of to $5.26/Mcf in 1Q2022, versus $3.42 a year earlier. The price average for all grades of liquids nearly doubled to $93.54/bbl from $52.68. The jump in liquids prices more than offset increased costs for the natural gas used in thermal oilsands processes, management noted. SCO production costs rose by 24% to $24.60/bbl, while bitumen costs grew by 26% to $14.35.

Pembina Says Montney Shale Liquids, Natural Gas in High Demand - Rising prices and producer demand for delivery service in the gassy Montney Shale of northern Alberta and British Columbia (BC) ignited a “tremendous start” to the year for Pembina Pipeline Corp., management said. The Calgary operator, which reports in Canadian dollars (C$1.00/US 80 cents) said highlights of the first quarter included relaunching construction of the $530 million, 150-kilometer (90 miles) Phase VIII Peace Pipeline Expansion.The project, which had been deferred, would add capacity to transport 235,000 b/d of Montney natural gas liquids (NGL) by early 2024, said the Calgary firm.On the Alliance natural gas pipeline, Pembina said more than 90% of capacity is contracted for the current gas year, with 75% contracted for the next gas year. Alliance supplies gas from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the Williston Basin to Chicago.“Recent contracting success continues to highlight the value of Alliance’s reliable and highly competitive access to Midwestern U.S. gas markets, and as a conduit to the Gulf Coast and its robust liquefied natural gas market,” management said. In addition to an announced 20-year midstream services deal with ConocoPhillips Canada for transportation and fractionation of NGLs, Pembina highlighted a recent take-or-pay offtake agreement with a second producer in northeastern BC (NEBC).“The agreement provides the producer with certainty of transportation egress from this key area for their future development and access to the remainder of Pembina’s integrated value chain,” management said.Commercial terms have also been reached with a third Montney producer regarding “significant” long-term NEBC volume commitments, with final signatures expected by mid-2022.

More Oil From U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Heads To Europe --Europe is set to receive more cargoes of U.S. crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as the European Union discusses an oil embargo on Russia and looks to reduce reliance on Russian oil, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing tanker-tracking data and sources with knowledge of the shipments.In recent weeks, Europe has increased purchases of U.S. crude as it considers the details of a ban on imports of Russian crude and refined products.A week after the European Commission officially proposed a full ban on Russian crude and oil product imports by the end of the year, the EU is still scrambling to find a common position, trying to persuade Hungary and some other central European countries to drop their opposition to an embargo.“We made progress, but further work is needed,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said late on Monday following a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.Meanwhile, U.S. crude is flowing to Europe at rates never seen before.Two cargoes of high-sulfur crude from the U.S. strategic reserve are headed to Italy and the Netherlands, according to tanker-tracking data and sources briefed by Bloomberg. The tankers have loaded crude at terminals connected to storage caverns of the SPR in Texas and Louisiana.According to Matt Smith, oil analyst at commodity data firm Kpler, these would not be the last crude exports out of the U.S. SPR to Europe.In April, some 1.6 million barrels of U.S. crude from the strategic reserve made its way to Europe, Smith told Bloomberg, adding: “That’s the largest amount of SPR crude that’s been shipped to the continent based on historical monthly data.”Although the EU is still working out the details of an embargo on Russia’s oil, many buyers in Europe are generally staying away from Russian crude and products, while May 15 is the deadline for European buyers to wind down and halt transactions with Russian oil firms, including Rosneft.

European refiners ramp up runs on strong margins despite high gas costs - European refiners are ramping up runs, boosted by strong distillate and gasoline cracks and a dearth of diesel supply, despite the high natural gas and hydrogen costs. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, benchmark refining margins in Europe are robust amid very strong distillate and gasoline cracks. ARA gasoline and ULSD cracks reached $26/b and $57/b, respectively, on April 29, while jet fuel cracks led the barrel at $69.37/b. The FOB Rotterdam jet fuel barge crack versus Dated Brent was assessed by S&P Global at $59.26/b on May 5, with the ULSD barge crack at $46.08/b. "There's a decent incentive to turn the black stuff into white stuff," a Med-based trader said. "Runs are being maximized across [Northwest Europe] at the moment," another source said. "There's a huge amount of downstream product demand and distillates and gasoline cracks necessitate it." French oil major TotalEnergies reported 74% utilization rates across all of its refineries in the first quarter. However, CEO Patrick Pouyanne said during an earnings call that in view of the diesel tightness it was "even more important that our refineries in Europe are running," adding that all of TotalEnergies' refineries in Europe would be "running at full capacity" during the second quarter. The company's Donges refinery restarted at the end of April after being shut for almost one-and-a-half years for economic reasons. Spain's Repsol said first-quarter throughput rose 9% year on year due to improved margins and differentials between heavy and light crudes, which offset increased energy costs. The company's Spanish refineries ran at 83% distillation rate in the first quarter, affected by planned maintenance, but still up from 76% in Q4 2021.

LNG ship arrivals to Europe rises over 20% on month in April - The number of LNG ships arriving into Europe rose more than 20% in April compared with the previous month, as continued uncertainty about Russian pipeline gas supplies amid the war in Ukraine lured cargoes to the region. There were 114 LNG ships that arrived in Europe in April, versus 94 in the previous month, vessel-tracking data from S&P Global's cFlow trade-flow analytics software showed. The Mediterranean saw the biggest increase, a rise of 24.4%, while Northwest Europe saw a month-on-month growth of 18.4%. In April, Spain imported the largest number of LNG ships in the Mediterranean. It imported 35 ships, an increase of 25% from 25 ships in March. Italy also increased the number of LNG ships imported by 25%; its imports grew to 15 in April, from 12 in the previous month. In Northwest Europe, France imported the largest number of LNG ships, 26 in April compared with 24 in March, an increase of 8.3%. The UK experienced the highest growth over the same period, where the number of ships increased to 19 from 13, a rise of 46.2%. Following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia on Feb. 24, European LNG outright prices increased significantly in March. They reached their highest level on March 8 at $60.925/MMBtu for DES NWE and have been on a downward trend since then, but are still up sharply from the same time a year ago. Higher prices in Europe attracted an increased flow of LNG cargoes resulting in limited slot availability across the continent. Lower LNG prices in April followed a higher number of LNG ship arrivals. According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the monthly average for April DES NWE was $31.24/MMBtu, down from $37.33/MMBtu in March. The higher inflow of LNG into Europe also contributed to the upward trend in European gas inventories which were at 34.6% in the latest reading of Gas Infrastructure Europe, up from 26.3% at the end of March.

Lighting The Gas Under European Feet: How Politicians & Journalists Get Energy So Wrong - Human civilization is powered by combustion; human beings are a fossil fuel–burning civilization. You can take away the civilization part, which seems to be the end goal for some environmentalists, but bar that, you can’t take away the fossil fuel part.If we listened only to our energy overlords’ preaching, we would get a very different impression of what the world is like. Wind turbines powering all those electrified vehicles on our roads, solar panels and batteries of immense capacities light and heat our homes. Dirty oil and polluting coal are out; green, clean, and smart machines on the way in.Nothing could be further from the truth. Renewables don’t power our societies, they’re not about to any time soon, and the fact that they’re not isn’t a policy choice—or “greedy capitalism” preventing this utopian (dystopian) vision. Dreams of a green revolution, per the energy theorist Vaclav Smil, were always mirages:We are a fossil-fueled civilization whose technical and scientific advances, quality of life, and prosperity rest on the combustion of huge quantities of fossil carbon, and we cannot simply walk away from this critical determinant of our fortunes in a few decades, never mind years.Instead, suddenly facing an adversary rich in raw materials and fossil fuels, the West’s talking heads doubled down on their green dreams. From behind comfortable newspaper desks, heated and electrified by natural gas, it’s remarkably easy to say things like: “The new reality is that we have to go all the way to universal electrification even faster, powered by 100% renewable energy with green hydrogen filling the gaps” (Andreas Kluth, at Bloomberg). For the New Yorker, John Cassidy recently told us that we must “prevent future Putins from trying to hold the world to energy ransom—at least one worthy outcome of the tragedy that is Ukraine.” In a powerful speech in the middle of the Russia flurry in March, Isabel Schnabel of the Executive Board at the European Central Bank rallied for renewable power: Every solar panel installed, every hydropower plant built and every wind turbine added to the grid are taking us a step closer to energy independence and a greener economy….Our dependence on fossil energy sources is not only considered a peril to our planet, it is also increasingly seen as a threat to national security and our values of liberty, freedom and democracy.Luckily, Schnabel is in control of nothing less than the Eurozone’s printing press. One-upped by a fellow German, the reality-challenged finance minister Christian Lindner taught us that renewable electricity is “the energy of freedom.”What he failed to understand is that renewable electricity generation in Germany requires boatloads and pipe loads of Russian gas, Russian oil, and Russian commodities: the steel and cement to construct their precious wind towers are made from coal, not even counting the extreme heat needed to shape the steel and iron that makes up its body.A single wind turbine uses thousands of kilograms of nickel in its shaft and gear, plus some rare earth minerals from some pretty unclean sources. The gigantic structures, hundreds of meters tall and much too clunky to easily transport, are erected and moved there by machines that swallow diesel by the gallon.Fossil fuels are machine food, as Alex Epstein is fond of saying, and nothing drinks petrol like the machines that power a thirsty wind energy industry. When renewable sources are added to the electricity grid in large quantities, the cost of electricity goes up, not down, because their fickle reliance on weather requires them to be backstopped by thermal plants that run on coal or natural gas. The more renewables you add, the more natural gas you need.

Natural gas prices in Europe jump after Ukraine blocks Russian flows - European natural gas prices jumped after Ukraine's state-owned grid operator suspended Russian flows through a key entry point. Gas TSO of Ukraine on Tuesday announced force majeure – unforeseeable circumstances that prevent the fulfilment of a contract – the first declaration of its kind since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. It said it would not accept flows through its Sokhranivka entry point, which delivers Russian gas to Europe, from Wednesday. The operator has also blocked gas transport through its border compressor station Novopskov, through which almost a third of gas (up to 32.6 million cubic meters per day) from Russia to Europe is moved. TTF European natural gas prices were up more than 6.4% by around 9:15 a.m. London time on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv data. Both the Sokhranivka gas metering station and Novopskov are situated in Russian-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine, and GTSOU blamed "the actions of the occupiers" for the interruption to gas transit. "As a result of the Russian Federation's military aggression against Ukraine, several GTS facilities are located in territory temporarily controlled by Russian troops and the occupation administration," GTSOU said in a statement. "Currently, GTSOU cannot carry out operational and technological control over the CS 'Novopskov' and other assets located in these territories. Moreover, the interference of the occupying forces in technical processes and changes in the modes of operation of GTS facilities, including unauthorized gas offtakes from the gas transit flows, endangered the stability and safety of the entire Ukrainian gas transportation system." The operator said it would still be able to fulfill its transit obligations to European partners by rerouting gas to the Sudzha interconnection point, which is located in Ukrainian-controlled territory. "The company repeatedly informed Gazprom about gas transit threats due to the actions of the Russian-controlled occupation forces and stressed stopping interference in the operation of the facilities, but these appeals were ignored," GTSOU added.

Russia may completely redirect gas exports from Europe to Asia, says expert - Russian gas deliveries to Europe can be entirely redirected to the Asia-Pacific region where gas demand is rising, but it would require prompt infrastructure modernization, an energy expert at the Russian company Vygon Consulting, Ivan Timonin, told Sputnik on Sunday. "Russian exports now flowing to Europe could potentially be diverted to the Asia-Pacific region in full. It requires, however, active development of export infrastructure, construction of new gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants, which is also time-consuming," Timonin said. Russia's drive to redirect gas flows to Asia is stemming not only from Europe's quest to stop buying Russian energy, particularly oil products, but is also market-driven, the expert said. Current trends show that Asian countries will account for over a half of natural gas demand by 2025, with consumption increasing by 160 billion cubic meters, primarily in China and India, according to Timonin. At the same time, construction of the Power of Siberia pipeline supplying gas to China took five years and the same time is needed to build large-scale gas liquefaction plants. "To keep gas exports at the same level, Russia should already start developing new projects and take investment decisions," Timonin added. The supplies via the Power of Siberia pipeline have started at the end of 2019, and amounted to 4.1 billion cubic meters in 2020. It is planned to increase the volume of supplies until reaching the design annual capacity of 38 billion cubic meters by 2025. Taking the new February agreement into account, the total capacity of supplies along the Far Eastern route to China could amount to 48 billion cubic meters per year. Furthermore, the Power of Siberia 2 project is currently under consideration, which aims to deliver up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually to China via Mongolia.

G7 Leaders Pledge to Ban Imports of Russian Oil - Leaders of the Group of Seven most industrialized countries pledged to ban the import of Russian oil in response to President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. The heads of the leading economies made the commitment after holding a video call with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday, the eve of Russia’s May 9 Victory Day, which commemorates Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The date has become a touchstone of the Kremlin’s campaign to whip up public support for the invasion. Several G-7 countries have already pledged to diversify away from Russian supplies. The U.S. and U.K. have already announced bans on Russian oil imports and Germany, the European Union’s biggest economy, has backed a proposal for the EU to get rid of it by January. The pledge is also the furthest that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has gone in committing his country to halting Russian oil purchases. The leaders will “commit to phase out our dependency on Russian energy, including by phasing out or banning the import of Russian oil,” the G-7 statement says. “We will ensure that we do so in a timely and orderly fashion, and in ways that provide time for the world to secure alternative supplies.” The G-7 leaders also said they would take measures to prohibit or otherwise prevent the provision of key services on which Russia depends. “This will reinforce Russia’s isolation across all sectors of its economy,” according to the statement. They are also set to work together with partners “to ensure stable and sustainable global energy supplies and affordable prices for consumers, including by accelerating reduction of our overall reliance on fossil fuels and our transition to clean energy in accordance with our climate objectives.” The statement includes pledges to continue actions “against Russian banks connected to the global economy and systemically critical to the Russian financial system,” pursue efforts to fight Moscow’s propaganda, and “continue and elevate our campaign against the financial elites and family members” who support Putin. The meeting comes as the EU struggles to agree on its own ban on Russian oil imports, with Hungary delaying a proposal that would phase out crude oil over the next six months and refined fuels by January. A ban on shipping Russian oil to third countries may also be delayed until G-7 countries commit to similar measures, according to people familiar with the matter.

EU Push to Ban Russian Oil Stalled | Rigzone --Hungary continued to block a European Union proposal that would ban Russian oil imports, holding up the bloc’s entire package of sanctions meant to target President Vladimir Putin over his war in Ukraine, according to people familiar with the talks. A meeting of the EU’s 27 ambassadors ended on Sunday without an agreement, with talks expected to resume in the coming days, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions were private. A ban on shipping Russian oil to third countries may also be delayed until Group of Seven countries commit to similar measures. The EU’s proposal seeks to ban crude oil over the next six months and refined fuels by early January. The EU had offered Hungary and Slovakia until the end of 2024 to comply with the sanctions and the Czech Republic until June of the same year since they are heavily reliant on Russian crude. The exemption failed to convince Hungary, which continued to block the plan on Sunday over the oil ban as well as how to fund the transition away from Russian energy, the people said. “We have voted for all the sanctions packages so far, but this latest one would destroy the security of the Hungarian energy supply,” Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said in a statement on Sunday. “As long as there is no solution to the problem caused by the Brussels’ proposal, we will not vote for this package.” The EU had been pushing to have the sanctions concluded by Russia’s May 9 Victory Day, which marks Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. Under an EU plan circulated to member states in the past week, European companies and individuals would be banned from providing vessels and services, such as insurance, needed to transport oil to third countries. Greece and Cyprus want the vessels portion of that proposal delayed until after G-7 countries adopt similar measures, according to the people. The EU is also proposing to:

• Cut three more Russian banks off the international payments system SWIFT, including Russia’s largest lender Sberbank.
• Restrict Russian entities and individuals from purchasing property in the EU.
• Ban providing consulting services to Russian companies and trade in a number of chemicals.
• Sanction Alina Kabaeva, a former Olympic gymnast who is “closely associated” with Putin, according to an EU document; and Patriarch Kirill, who heads the Russian Orthodox Church and has been a vocal supporter of the Russian president and the war in Ukraine.
• Sanction dozens of military personnel, including those deemed responsible for reported war crimes in Bucha, as well as companies providing equipment, supplies and services to the Russian armed forces.

Hungary's Orban — a longtime Putin ally — stalls Europe's Russian oil embargo - The European Union is struggling to approve a sixth round of sanctions against Russia with a few nations pushing back on a proposed oil embargo. The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, EU, has presented a six-month phase-out period from Russian oil as part of broader measures looking to hurt President Vladimir Putin's regime. Hungary and Slovakia — two EU nations with a high dependence on Russian energy — were given until the end of 2023 to abide by the new set of rules. However, this extended period was not enough and both nations are demanding more. The impasse is preventing the EU from approving the broader package of sanctions. Hungary has been the EU's most vocal opponent on the oil ban. Prime Minister Viktor Orban — a longtime ally of Putin — has said that ending Russian oil purchases would be an "atomic bomb" on Hungary's economy. "The proposal on the table now creates a Hungarian problem, and there is no plan to solve it," he said last week, according to a press statement. Budapest is also a buyer of Russian natural gas, having increased its imports from Moscow in recent years. Over the last decade, Hungary has increased its imports of Russian natural gas from 9.070 million cubic meters in 2010 to a high of 17.715 million cubic meters in 2019, according to Eurostat. Orban had, until now, largely supported EU sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. This despite Orban forming strong economies ties with Russia over the last decade and often boasting of his close relationship with Putin. Their close links were seen during the coronavirus pandemic, for example. Hungary became the first EU nation to buy a Russian-made Covid vaccine — even though it wasn't approved by European regulators. One EU official, who did not want to be named due to the sensitive nature of the talks, described Hungary's "stubbornness" as a "sad thing," speaking to CNBC Monday. A second EU official, who also did not want to be named due to sensitive negotiations currently underway, told CNBC that EU ambassadors would be looking to solve the impasse again on Tuesday. More broadly, the difficulty in passing through these sanctions raises questions about what would happen if there was a proposed ban on Russian natural gas as well, with the EU being even more reliant on that commodity. "I can assure you that Europe will move out from Russian oil and Europe will move out from Russia gas. The only thing is it cannot be done overnight," Alexander Schallenberg, the Austrian minister for foreign affairs, told CNBC Saturday.

Germany warns EU to expect economic cost from Russian oil embargo -Germany has warned that EU consumers should brace for a big economic hit and higher energy prices as Berlin said it was willing to back an embargo of Russian oil to punish Moscow for its war on Ukraine.Europe was prepared to bear the strain of cutting its use of Russian crude, said Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister and deputy chancellor. But he said the move should be properly prepared and should consider the high dependency of some EU countries on Russian supplies.“We will be harming ourselves, that much is clear,” he said ahead of an emergency meeting of EU energy ministers that is debating an embargo on Russian oil.“It’s inconceivable that sanctions won’t have consequences for our own economy and for prices in our countries,” he said. “We as Europeans are prepared to bear [the economic strain] in order to help Ukraine. But there’s no way this won’t come at a cost to us.”Habeck said it was important for Europe not to be “faced with economically unmanageable scenarios”. Germany had made “great progress” in finding alternatives to Russian coal and oil, “but other countries may need more time”.EU energy ministers met on Monday to discuss an expected sixth package of sanctions against Russia that Brussels is drafting.Diplomats say it will include a phased-in oil embargo to take full effect by the end of the year.EU ambassadors, who meet on Wednesday, would need to agree unanimously to any commission plan for it to take effect.Member states are still split over the idea of a Russian oil ban. Hungary said it would block a deal unless it could be guaranteed supplies from elsewhere.Hungary and Slovakia have infrastructure built to handle Russian crude and without ports have few alternative sources.Germany would need time to adapt its own infrastructure before stopping all Russian crude shipments, Habeck said.In contrast Poland and the Baltic states want an immediate ban on Russian oil, while Italy has suggested a price cap or tariff on Russian imports. Russia supplies around a quarter of the EU’s oil, and two-thirds of Hungary’s.Energy ministers also addressed Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom’s decision to cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria after the two countries refused to comply with a Kremlin order to settle payments in roubles via Gazprombank. Brussels has told member states that to use the system established by Moscow would breach EU sanctions.Several companies, as well as Hungary’s government, have said they would obey Moscow’s demand because a cut-off would damage the economy.Speaking at a press conference after the conclusion of the energy ministers’ meeting, Kadri Simson, the EU’s energy commissioner, said Brussels would in the coming days release further, more detailed guidance on what companies can and cannot do when it comes to payments to Gazprom. She warned that paying in roubles according to the procedure set out by Russia would constitute a breach of EU sanctions.The decision by Gazprom to stop supplies to Poland and Bulgaria last week was, she added, “an unjustified breach of existing contracts and a warning that any member state could be next”.“The member states and the companies should not have any illusions that they can rely on the good faith of Gazprom and the Russian regime in this matter,” she said.Anna Moskwa, Polish climate minister, urged countries not to comply with Moscow’s demands. “We appeal to countries not to support [Russian president Vladimir] Putin’s decree. We should not support Gazprombank. We should not support the Russian economy,” she told reporters before the meeting, calling for an immediate block on Russian oil and gas.Poland’s gas storage was 80 per cent full and could soon be fully independent from Russian supplies, she said.The Czech Republic and Slovakia told the FT they wanted clearer guidance before making a commitment on not using the Kremlin’s system. They wanted guaranteed supplies from other EU countries. Prague and Bratislava are also seeking assurances in return for backing an oil embargo. “We will not say no but we need to know what will be the solidarity afterwards,” said Karol Galek, state secretary of the Slovak economy ministry. “Slovakia is only able to use the heavy oil from Russia.”

Novak: Russia’s Crude Production Up In May -Russia’s crude oil production is on the rise so far in May, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told TASS news agency on Monday.Russia’s crude oil production slipped by half a million bpd in March, by a full million bpd in April, with many analysts stating concern that those barrels may never return to the market. April’s OPEC+ production quota was set at 10.436 million bpd.But according to Novak, the picture isn’t quite so bleak, with Russian crude oil production now stabilizing despite sanctions.“Looking at the figures of early May, they are better than in April. The situation is stable, the output increased in comparison to April. We are counting on partial recovery of data in May and that it will be better,” Novak told TASS, without quantifying the increased production figures.According to Interfax, Russia’s crude oil production slipped to 10.05 million bpd in April, a decline of about 4% year over year, but for the first few days in May, this had edged up 2% over April figures, to an average of 10.28 million bpd.But even that increase is a far cry from Russia’s May output quota set by the OPEC+ group, which is 10.549 million barrels per day.In April, Russia’s economy ministry had estimated that it could shed some 17% of its pre-war oil production this year—an estimation that is widely shared, if not conservative, in the industry.The fear of Russia’s “lost” oil production is, in part, what triggered the United States and other IEA members to agree to release millions of barrels of crude oil from emergency stockpiles to stabilize the market. And while crude oil prices were trading down on Monday, Brent was still trading at more than $106 per barrel, with WTI still over $103 per barrel.

Russia oil revenue up 50% this year despite boycott, IEA says— Russia’s oil revenues are up 50% this year even as trade restrictions following the invasion of Ukraine spurred many refiners to shun its supplies, the International Energy Agency said. Moscow earned roughly $20 billion each month in 2022 from combined sales of crude and products amounting to about 8 million barrels a day, the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly market report. Russian shipments have continued to flow even as the European Union edges towards an import ban, and international oil majors such as Shell Plc and TotalEnergies SE pledge to cease purchases. Asia has remained a keen customer, with China and India picking up cargoes no longer wanted in Europe. The IEA, which advises major economies, kept its outlook for world oil markets largely unchanged in the report. Global fuel markets are tight and may face further strain in the months ahead as Chinese demand rebounds following a spate of new Covid lockdowns, it said. Reduced flows of Russian refined products such as diesel, fuel oil and naphtha have aggravated tightness in global markets, the agency noted. Stockpiles have declined for seven consecutive quarters, with reserves of so-called middle distillates at their lowest since 2008. But for all the disruption, Moscow has continued to enjoy a financial windfall compared with the first four months of 2021. Despite the EU’s public censure of the Kremlin’s aggression, total oil export revenues were up 50% this year. The bloc remained the largest market for Russian exports in April, taking 43% of the country’s exports, the IEA said.

Russian Oil Production May Fall To 18-Year Low On EU Oil Embargo -Russia’s crude oil production could drop to its lowest level since 2004 if the EU imposes an embargo on imports of Russian oil, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and The Wall Street Journal.The tightening screws on Russian oil exports and the self-sanctioning of buyers in the West could see oil production plummeting by more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year compared to 2021, to 9.6 million bpd, the Journal notes, citing data from the IEA’s monthly market report published today. This would be the lowest level of Russian crude production in 18 years.In the closely watched Oil Market Report today, the IEA estimated that Russia already shut in nearly 1 million bpd in April, driving down global oil supply by 710,000 bpd to 98.1 million bpd.“Russia’s isolation following its invasion of Ukraine is deepening as the EU and G7 contemplate tougher sanctions that include a full phase out of oil imports from the country. If agreed, the new embargoes would accelerate the reorientation of trade flows that is already underway and will force Russian oil companies to shut in more wells,” the IEA said. So far, Russian exports have held up, but as of May 15, the major international trading houses will have to halt all transactions with state-controlled Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Transneft, the agency noted. “Following a supply decline of nearly 1 mb/d in April, losses could expand to around 3 mb/d during the second half of the year,” the IEA said, referring to Russia’s oil supply. Russia’s oil production is already falling and will continue dropping in the coming months and years as Moscow will not be able to redirect to China and India all the volumes it is losing in Europe—its biggest oil market before the invasion of Ukraine. Restrictions, combined with the lack of access to Western technology to pump harder-to-recover oil and enhance production from maturing wells will hit Russia’s oil industry not only in the near term but also in the long term, analysts say.

Russia Announces Initial Retaliatory Sanctions Targets; Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop by Yves Smith - Russia published its initial list of parties subject to its “retaliatory special economic measures.” Putin established the program by decree on May 3, designed to address the unlawful taking of property and property rights by unfriendly parties. The order tasked officials to come up with targets in ten days and develop additional criteria.We speculated that Germany’s seizure of Gazprom operations, which included storage facilities, would be a prime initial target. We were correct. We’ve embedded a machine translation¹ of the May 11 document describing the implementation measures at the end of the post. TASS gives an overview: The list includes 31 companies from Germany, France and other European countries, as well as from the USA and Singapore. In particular, it includes former European subsidiaries of Gazprom, traders and operators of underground gas storage facilities.In particular, Russian authorities, legal entities and citizens will not be able to conclude transactions with the sanctioned entities and organizations under their control, fulfill obligations to them under completed transactions, and conduct financial transactions in their favor. This includes the concluded foreign trade contracts. These bans were earlier established by a decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin.The resolution sets additional criteria for transactions that are prohibited from being performed with companies from the sanctions list. These are transactions concluded in favor of the sanctioned persons, or providing for the making of payments, transactions with securities with the participation or in favor of such companies, or transactions involving the entry of ships owned or chartered by sanctioned persons, in their interest or on their behalf, into the Russian ports.If you look at the list, 12 of the 31 entities bear the Gazprom name. TASS lists some of the others:Gazprom Germania is an international group of companies that, through its subsidiary Gazprom Marketing & Trading, is engaged in natural gas trading in the UK spot markets, as well as the sale of liquefied natural gas in Southeast Asia. Through its subsidiary Gazprom Schweiz AG, it trades natural gas in countries Central Asia and the former Soviet Union, as well as in Austria, Italy and Serbia. Natural gas is traded in Germany mainly through Wingas and in the Czech Republic and Slovakia through Vemex Gazprom Germania.Gazprom Germania is also the operator of several large gas storage facilities in Germany and has several projects in Serbia, Austria and the Czech Republic.EuRoPol GAZ is a joint venture between Gazprom and Poland’s PGNiG, which owns the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. So even though the first paragraph in the extract above is ambiguous, one can assume that Wingas entities, along with Vemex (per Vemex Gazprom Germania) and EuRoPol, are Gazprom ventures. Adding all those names brings the list of Gazrpom-related businesses to 21.

Nigeria’s oil output drops 13.3% to 1.3 mbpd - THE Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has put Nigeria’s oil output at 1.3 million barrels per day, bpd, in April 2022. This showed a decrease of 13.3 percent compared to 1.5 million bpd recorded in the corresponding period of 2021. Despite the low output, Nigeria remains the highest producer in Africa, while Equatorial Guinea is the least with 94,000 bpd, according to the May 2022 Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR, of OPEC obtained by Vanguard, yesterday. However, the Nigeria’s figure excluded condensate, which the country has the capacity to produce between 300,000 and 400,000 bpd, but it is not clear if the actual output matches the capacity as the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, does not give regular information on the product line. OPEC expects Nigeria to produce 1.773 million bpd in June 2022, as part of measures targeted at achieving market stability. But in an interview with Vanguard, the Chairman of International Energy Services, Dr. Diran Fawibe, said Nigeria might not be able to meet the target. He said: “The market might continue to record increased instability as Nigeria will not be able to meet its quota, apparently because of increased pipeline vandalism, oil theft and illegal refining in the Niger Delta. “Overtime, the oil and gas companies have not been investing much, partly because of the delay associated with the passage of the nation’s Petroleum Industry Bill, PIB, which has now become an Act. Consequently, a lot of investments went to other nations, leading to the low production capacity of the country.

TotalEnergies may exit Nigeria’s onshore oilfields - Indications are that TotalEnergies may exit the country’s onshore oil fields in the shortest possible time. Available information showed that TotalEnergies has joined the list of international oil corporations that has hinted of plans to exit Nigeria’s troubled onshore oil fields, a decision that will further impact Nigeria’s dwindling oil revenue. Bloomberg reported that the French energy giant announced it will put up for sale its minority stake in a Nigerian oil joint venture. The implication is that TotalEnergies will no longer be part of the exploration and production of crude oil in the onshore Niger Delta. This move by TotalEnergies also aligns with that of Shell and ExxonMobil, who are now focusing on deep-water fields away from the difficulties of operating in close proximity to local communities.

Petroleum demand forecast 5.2 million m3 in Q2 - — Demand for gasoline in the second quarter is forecast at about 5.2 million cubic metres (m3). The Ministry of Industry and Trade has informed the situation of the petroleum market in the second quarter, after supply uncertainties in the first quarter. Total petroleum demand for the domestic market is about 20.6 million m3 this year. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that the supply would reach about 6.7 million m3 this quarter. The Ministry of Industry and Trade affirmed that the above supply would meet the consumption demand in the second quarter. The inventory will be about 1.5 million m3 in the third quarter. To ensure the domestic petroleum supply, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said it would continue to direct petroleum dealers in allocating total sources and additional minimum import quotas, which the Ministry of Industry and Trade assigned in the second quarter. The ministry also asked dealers to report on specific plans for petroleum production and supply from domestic production sources in balance with domestic consumption demand and adjust the allocation of petrol and oil import quotas to traders in the last six months. At the same time, the ministry requested coordination with the Ministry of Finance to manage gasoline prices in close contact with world gasoline price movements, in line with domestic petroleum supply and demand to ensure harmonisation of interests among petroleum market participants. The ministry also directed the market management force nationwide to continue strengthening the inspection and control of the market. In particular, it requested the Committee for State Capital Management at Enterprises to direct Việt Nam Oil and Gas Group to urgently work and negotiate with relevant parties to quickly resolve the internal problems in the joint venture at the Nghi Sơn refinery.

OPEC Kingpins Sound Alarm - The oil ministers of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates warned that spare capacity is decreasing in all energy sectors, as products from crude to diesel and natural gas trade near record highs in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “I am a dinosaur, but I have never seen these things,” Saudi minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who’s been attending OPEC meetings since the 1980s, said Tuesday at a conference in Abu Dhabi, referring to the recent surge in prices for refined products. “The world needs to wake up to an existing reality. The world is running out of energy capacity at all levels.” The comments came in the same week that retail U.S. gasoline prices rose to a record. The minister made similar remarks on Monday, saying that a lack of investment in energy production and refining was leading to costlier fuel. The prince’s UAE counterpart, Suhail al Mazrouei, said on the same panel that without more investment across the globe, OPEC+ wouldn’t be able to guarantee sufficient supplies of oil when demand fully recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among the few producers investing in greater output. They’re spending billion of dollars to raise their crude capacity by 2 million barrels a day between them by the end of this decade. Most others are struggling to get funding as shareholders and governments encourage a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Still, for now there’s no shortage of oil and thus no need for OPEC+ to accelerate its gradual production increases, according to Mazrouei. “The market is balanced,” he said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, a 23-nation group led by the Saudis and Russia, has been under pressure from the U.S., Europe and other major importers to boost supply more quickly. Crude has jumped more than 35% this year to around $105 a barrel, mostly due to Russia’s attack. The European Union is moving closer to a formal ban on Russian energy imports in a bid to punish Moscow for the war. OPEC+ rubber-stamped a 432,000 barrel-a-day increase for June at its last meeting on May 5. It’s struggling to reach even that modest monthly target, with many members pumping below their quotas. Prince Abdulaziz reiterated that OPEC+ would not allow geopolitics to affect its decisions. The U.S. has tried to get Saudi Arabia and the UAE to distance themselves from Russia since the attack on Ukraine. Mazrouei said prices had been pushed up by the “politicization” of the oil market.

Saudis Say Low Refining Capacity Causing Fuel Price Jump - A lack of refining capacity across the world is leading to a surge in the gap between the price of crude oil and fuels, according to Saudi Arabia’s energy minister. The difference “is in some cases 60%,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at a conference in Riyadh on Monday. “If the signals of the market are not conducive, people will refrain from investing,” he said. Crude and refined-fuel markets are strongly backwardated, a bullish pattern marked by near-term futures commanding a premium to those further out. The downward-sloping curve means the long-term price assumptions companies use are much lower than current levels, which can discourage investment in production and refining. Crude prices have surged to around $110 a barrel in the past year, first as demand recovered from the coronavirus pandemic and then after Russia invaded Ukraine. Refined products have risen significantly more than crude since Russia’s attack, with diesel trading at record highs in the U.S.

OPEC+ April crude oil output tumbles as sanctions hit Russian output: Platts survey | S&P Global Commodity Insights -- Crude oil production by OPEC and its partners fell to a six-month low of 41.58 million b/d in April as Russian production took a battering from Western sanctions, the latest Platts survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights found. OPEC's 13 members raised output by 70,000 b/d to 28.80 million b/d, led by gains in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, but production by key ally Russia fell by 900,000 b/d, and Kazakhstan also registered significant losses. This meant the glaring gap between OPEC+ production and quotas rose to a record-high 2.59 million b/d as 13 out of the 19 countries with quotas struggled to hit their output targets, the survey found. The shortfall propelled the group's quota compliance to 220.3% -- illustrating how the sanctions on Russia, along with capacity constraints faced by several members, have eroded the alliance's ability to balance the market even as it keeps raising its production targets every month. The latest OPEC+ meeting on May 5 resulted in another 432,000 b/d collective quota increase for June. Crude prices, which were already climbing as global oil demand has recovered from the pandemic, have largely remained above $100/b since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in late February, though tempered somewhat by widespread COVID-19-related lockdown measures in China.Russia's output plunged to 9.14 million b/d in April, far below its quota of 10.44 million b/d, the survey found, and is expected to fall further with the EU preparing to impose an embargo on oil supplies from the country to choke its income. Its alliance with OPEC, forged in late 2016, has helped the producer group boost its influence in global oil markets, but the war is leaving the Kremlin increasingly isolated. Fellow non-OPEC producer Kazakhstan saw its output fall 220,000 b/d to 1.33 million b/d following damage to offshore loading facilities at the Russian port of Novorossiisk, from which its CPC Blend crude is exported. The outage lasted almost a month before loadings returned to normal towards the end of April. Politically unstable Libya's production also tumbled, with various factions blockading ports and key oil fields, while Nigeria remains hampered by issues to several of its key oil streams, according to the survey.

Oil falls on China demand worries, possible EU ban on Russia oil eyed -Oil prices slipped on Monday, along with stock markets in Asia, sparked by weak China data and fears a global recession could dampen oil demand, with investors eying European Union talks on a Russian oil embargo that could tighten global supplies.“The broader risk-off sentiment sparked by the recession fears, and China’s lockdowns are the major factors that pressure the oil price,” CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. Global financial markets have also been spooked by concerns over interest rate hikes and recession worries as tighter and wider COVID-19 lockdowns in China led to slower export growth in the world’s No. 2 economy in April. Crude imports by China, the world’s top oil importer, rose nearly 7% in April from a year earlier although imports for the first four months fell 4.8% on year. A price cut by Saudi Arabia also reflected worries over global oil demand, Teng said. Saudi Arabia, world’s top oil exporter, lowered crude prices for Asia and Europe for June on Sunday.Last week, the European Commission proposed a phased embargo on Russian oil as part of its toughest-yet package of sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine, boosting Brent and WTI prices for the second straight week. However, the proposal requires a unanimous vote among EU members this week. The EU proposal was followed by a pledge by G7 nations on Sunday to ban or phase out Russian oil imports. Washington also imposed new sanctions against Gazprombank executives and other businesses. Japan, part of G7 and one of the world’s top five crude importers, will ban Russian crude imports “in principle,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Sunday. “It seems inevitable that both the EU and Japan will be competing for more non-Russia supplies in the future, and this is underpinning prices,”

Oil Falls as Saudis Cut OSPs, Russian Embargo Hits Snag -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange fell more than 2% in early trade Monday after Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil producer, slashed its official selling prices for next month deliveries for Asian and European buyers, signaling stalled demand growth amid lockdowns in China and rattled industries in the Eurozone, where a proposed ban on Russian oil imports has been stalled by opposition from Hungary. Talks between the bloc's 27 countries fell into deadlock Sunday, according to wire services, after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban reiterated his objection to an all-out embargo on Russian oil imports, citing what would be devastating impacts for the Hungarian economy. On Friday, Orban compared the proposed legislature to a "nuclear bomb" being thrown at the Hungarian economy. Under the proposed legislation, the European Commission would give Hungary and Slovakia an extended period of time, until the end of 2023, to end purchases of Russian oil, while the other 25 members would phase-out all imports by October. According to reports, the Hungarian government now wants a total opt-out from the ban, while two other member states in Central and Eastern Europe -- Czech Republic and Bulgaria -- have also requested an extended period to transition away from Russian energy trade. The ongoing challenges on reaching a viable agreement on a Russian embargo reflect the fact that the measures being proposed would be deeply painful for some countries to absorb. In 2021, almost two-thirds of the bloc's crude oil imports came from Russia, with Russian oil satisfying more than 60% of Slovakia and Hungary's fuel demand, with similar dependencies in neighboring Czech Republic and Bulgaria. This comes as leaders from G7 countries "committed to phase out dependency on Russian energy, including by phasing out or banning the import of Russian oil." Underlining Monday's move lower in the oil complex is Saudi Aramco's cut to most of its selling prices across Asia, Europe and the Mediterranean for June loadings which reflects flagging demand in Asia and Europe. Aramco slashed its Asian selling price differential by the most for June, down to $4.95 barrel (bbl) from over $9 in May, as lockdowns cut through mobility in China's largest cities. For Northwest Europe-bound crude, Aramco dropped its OSPs by $2.50 bbl to a $5.60 bbl premium to ICE Brent, and its Light grade was down $2.50 bbl to $2.10 bbl. For U.S.-bound crudes, Aramco maintained pricing for all grades from May. Near 7:45 a.m. EDT, NYMEX June West Texas Intermediate dropped by more than $3 to trade near $106.37 bbl and Brent crude fell below $110 bbl, down $3.16. NYMEX June RBOB futures retreated from an all-time high settlement $3.7590 gallon, down more than 4 cents, and the front-month ULSD contact declined 10.91 cents to $3.8452 gallon.

Oil Ends Down 6% as Dollar Flies on Rate Hike Fears — Crude prices fell 6% on Monday as the dollar hit 20-year highs on U.S. rate hike fears that hammered the value of not just commodities priced in the currency but also other risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies. Brent crude, the London-traded global benchmark for oil, settled down $6.45, or 5.7%, at $105.94 a barrel. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled down $6.68, or 6.1%, at $103.09. The drop wiped out last week’s near 6% gain in both the Brent and WTI after the OPEC+ oil exporters alliance agreed at its monthly meeting to a nominal output hike of 432,000 barrels per day that fell well short of the projected summer demand for oil. The slump in crude prices came as central bank officials at the Federal Reserve debated on whether the next US rate hike should be 75 basis points, with some saying that would be excessive while others argued it might be necessary to stop runaway inflation. The last time the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points was in 1994. Money markets traders have already priced in a 79% probability of a 75-bps hike at the Fed’s upcoming June 14-15 meeting — after last week’s 50-bps increase at its May meeting, which in itself was the largest increase in 20 years. The Fed insists that its regime of high rate hikes will not tip the US economy into recession, but the markets aren’t buying that argument for now. “The Fed looks increasingly belligerent where rates are concerned and this could spook sentiment across, beginning with stocks right through to oil,” “Wall Street remains uninspired to ‘buy the dip’ as inflation seems poised to remain stubbornly high, which will force the Fed to tighten policy to levels that will jeopardize the soft landing most traders were expecting,” “Oil prices are dropping fast as crude demand destruction fears grow given China’s COVID situation and the de-risking event happening with U.S. stocks.”

Oil Futures Fell Hard on Monday, Marking the Largest One-Day Percentage Drop Since March 31 - Oil futures fell hard on Monday, marking the largest one-day percentage drop since March 31. Crude oil prices plummeted on news that Saudi Arabia lowered the official selling price of their crude oil by the most ever, as COVID lockdowns in China continued to eat away at demand and as the U.S. dollar hit a three-year high. Oil prices are still succumbing to pressure after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its interest rate, raising concern about demand. West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery dropped $6.68, or 6.1%, to end at $103.09 a barrel. June Brent settled at $105.94 a barrel, down $6.45, 5.74%. Heating oil for June delivery lost 11.94 cents per gallon, or 3.02% to $3.8349, while June RBOB lost 11.71 cents per gallon, or 3.12% to $3.6419. The exports of gasoline from northwest Europe to the U.S. were estimated to be around 282,000 tons this week, slightly lower than the previous week. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said that the gap between crude oil prices and prices for jet fuel, diesel and gasoline is around 60% in some cases because of the lack of refining capacity. Speaking at an aviation summit in Riyadh, he said the world needed to look at energy security, sustainability and affordability as a whole. An EU source said the European Commission is considering offering landlocked eastern European Union states more money to upgrade oil infrastructure in a bid to convince them to agree to an embargo on Russian oil. Separately, European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, said she had made progress in talks with Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, on a possible EU-wide ban on Russian fossil fuels. She said she would convene a video conference with other countries in the region to strengthen regional cooperation on oil infrastructure. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 946,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending May 13th, increasing available refining capacity by 109,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to decline to 729,000 bpd in the week ending May 20th. Venezuela’s PDVSA has started importing Iranian heavy crude to feed its domestic refineries, a deal that widens a swap agreement signed by both countries last year.

Oil Extend Losses on US Growth Concerns, China's Lockdowns - With the U.S. dollar trading near a 20-year high, oil futures extended Monday's losses into early trading Tuesday as investors rethink economic growth prospects in the United States amid the worst inflation in 40 years and an aggressive rate hike path laid out by the U.S. Federal Reserve that has raised doubts the central bank can avert recession in the world's largest economy. In the world's No. 2 economy, China's growth outlook decelerated sharply in April under pressure from unprecedented lockdown measures slapped on the country's major cities of Beijing and Shanghai. Chinese car sales plummeted 35.7% last month -- the biggest decline in over two years, while use of public transport declined 22% from a week earlier across 11 large cities in the clearest sign yet of deteriorating mobility. Further evidence of economic turmoil can be found in China's home sales data that collapsed by more than 50% compared to a year earlier, according to the government data released this week. Moving forward, China's Communist Party shows no signs of abandoning their brutal tactics of combating COVID-19 resurgence that is clearly taking the country backwards. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently urged officials to "unswervingly adhere to the general policy of dynamic zero-Covid," and warned against any criticism or doubting of the policy. Authorities just expanded the criteria for close contacts in Shanghai, with people living in the same building with a positive COVID case are at risk of being removed to government-run isolation facilities. According to various estimates, demand for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel in China slid 20% last month, accounting for a 1.4 million bbl decline in daily consumption. It marked the largest hit to demand since the lockdown of Wuhan -- the epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic more than two years ago. In the United States, equity futures on Wall Street bounced higher on Tuesday after a three-day selloff that sent S&P 500 to its lowest level since March of last year. The volatility in the markets was triggered, in part, by comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Rafael Bostic who suggested that two or even three 50-basis point increases in the federal funds rate are needed this year to quell inflation. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, NYMEX June West Texas Intermediate dropped $1.50 to trade at $101.70 bbl, and Brent crude fell below $105 bbl, down $1.58. NYMEX June RBOB futures retreated further from an all-time high settlement $3.7590 gallon reached on Friday, down 5.12 cents Tuesday morning to $3.5907 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract declined 1.22 cents to $3.8227 gallon.

Oil falls to below $100 a barrel as US inflation fuels concerns -Oil continued its retreat into a second session as galloping US inflation fueled concerns it would force moves that risk pushing the economy into a recession. West Texas Intermediate fell 3.2% to settle below $100 a barrel for the first time since late April. The dollar advanced amid worries over tighter monetary policy, making commodities priced in the currency less attractive. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban discussed energy security on Tuesday as the European Union seeks to persuade Budapest to drop its opposition to proposed sanctions on Russian oil imports. “Crude oil may have finally topped out,” The market has swayed in recent weeks as interest rates rise, and China’s fight against Covid-19 threatens demand. At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister warned that the entire energy market is running out of capacity, a concern that could potentially drive prices higher. His United Arab Emirates counterpart added that without more global investments, OPEC+ wouldn’t be able to guarantee sufficient oil supplies when demand fully recovers from the pandemic. Even as oil prices have dipped, US retail gasoline and diesel prices rallied to a record just ahead of the nation’s summer driving season. Meanwhile, US crude output growth appears to be slowing, leading the Energy Information Administration to cut its forecast for domestic oil production to 11.9 million barrels a day this year, compared with a previous estimate of 12.01 million, according to a monthly report. WTI for June delivery fell $3.33 to settle at $99.76 a barrel in New York. Brent for July settlement declined $3.48 to settle at $102.46 a barrel. A broader market sell off on Monday pushed oil down by the most since the end of March. Oil options markets were also caught up in the downturn, with bearish put options fetching a premium to bullish calls for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in late February. China’s Covid-19 resurgence has further added to volatility. Virus lockdowns have strained the economy, while Chinese Premier Li Keqiang warned of a “complicated and grave” employment situation as Beijing and Shanghai tightened curbs in a bid to contain outbreaks.

U.S. oil settles below $100 a barrel on economic worries, strong dollar --U.S. crude oil price settled below $100 a barrel on Tuesday to its lowest level in two weeks as the demand outlook was pressured by coronavirus lockdowns in China and growing recession risks, while a strong dollar made crude more expensive for buyers using other currencies. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down $3.33, or 3.2%, to $100.11 a barrel, while Brent crude was down $3.48, or 3.28%, at $102.46 a barrel. Both benchmarks were down for a second straight day and fell by more than $4 a barrel earlier on Tuesday. Wall Street's main indexes also turned lower in volatile trading on concerns over aggressive monetary policy tightening and slowing economic growth. Early in the session, comments from the Saudi and UAE energy ministers boosted Brent and WTI up by more than $1 a barrel. "As the EU continues to dither over whether or not they are going to embargo that Russian oil, that changes the calculus very much as well in both directions," The European Union Commission has delayed acting on the proposal. Unanimity is required to ban oil imports from Russia, and while a French minister said EU members could reach a deal this week, Hungary has dug in its heels opposing an embargo. Also, some European economies could suffer distress if Russian oil imports were curtailed further. If Russia retaliated by cutting off gas supplies, economies in emerging Europe, Central Asia and North Africa might slide back to pre-pandemic levels, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) warned. In addition to the recent G7 gradual import ban on Russian oil, Japan, which obtained 4% of its oil imports from Russia last year, has agreed to phase out those purchases. The timing and method have yet to be decided. With a steep fall in demand in China due to the lockdowns and discounted Russian barrels in the market, China gets to be more selective in the crude oil it buys, said Robert Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said raising U.S. interest rates in half-percentage-point increments "makes perfect sense" for the next couple of U.S. central bank policy meetings, while Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel said the European Central Bank should raise interest rates in July. The dollar held near a two-decade high ahead of a reading on inflation that could hint at the outlook for Fed policy. On the supply side, the U.S. Energy Information Administration trimmed its U.S. crude oil production forecasts for 2022 and 2023. It now expects output in 2022 to average 11.9 million barrels per day (bpd) compared with its previous estimate of 12 million bpd. European refiners' crude and oil products stocks stood at about 1 billion barrels in April, down 10.3% on a year-on-year basis but nearly the same level as in March, Euroilstock data showed. Middle distillate stocks fell by 15.4% on the year in April, and by almost 3% from March, the data showed.

Oil Prices Fall On Rising Crude, Product Inventories - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a build this week for crude oil of 1.618 million barrels, compared to analyst predictions of a 1.2 million barrel draw. U.S. crude inventories have shed some 73 million barrels since the start of 2021 and about 16 million barrels since the start of 2020, according to API data. In the week prior, the API reported a larger-than-expected draw in crude oil inventories of 3.479 million barrels after analysts had predicted a draw of 1.167 million barrels. Oil prices were down on Tuesday after Monday's brief selloff, as China's central bank promised to provide monetary policy support to its economy after the lockdown. The price moves remain a testament to the hyper volatility that exists in the market post covid and post-Russian invasion. WTI was trading down 3.40% at $99.58 per barrel on the day at 1:18 p.m. ET—down roughly $3 per barrel on the week. Brent crude was trading down 3.40% on the day at $102.30 per barrel on the day—and down nearly $4 per barrel on the week. U.S. crude oil production stayed at 11.9 million bpd for the third week in a row for the week ending April 29. Crude production in the United States is still down 1.2 million barrels per day from pre-pandemic times. This week, the API reported a build in gasoline inventories at 823,000 barrels for the week ending April 29—after the previous week's 4.50-million-barrel draw. Distillate stocks saw a build in inventory of 662,000 barrels for the week compared to last week's 4.457-million-barrel decrease. Cushing saw a 92,000-barrel build this week. Cushing inventories rose to 28.829 million barrels as of April 29, according to EIA data—down from 59.2 million barrels at the start of 2021, and down from 37.3 million barrels at the end of 2021. At 4:35 pm, ET, WTI was trading at $100 (-2.97%), with Brent trading at $102.70 (-3.07%).

Oil Prices Extend Gains As Distillate Inventories Plunge To 17 Year Lows -Oil prices are surging this morning, after COVID infections in Shanghai and Beijing dropped on Tuesday, providing some cautious optimism of improvement after lockdowns sparked growth scares... but that also comes as IIF tweets about global recessions and US inflation prints hotter than expected, prompting fears of a more aggressive Fed stomping on growth.The oil market hasn’t been “consistent at all as of late, which has turned many away from trading the commodity,” “Trading crude right now is like trying to figure out the mood swings of a teenager. It can feel like a futile endeavor.”Traders continue to monitor the EU’s efforts to agree sanctions on Russian oil imports. On Wednesday, Hungary said it will only agree if shipments via pipelines are excluded.And all of this is happening as US retail gasoline prices peak even before the start of the summer driving season.API

• Crude +1.161mm (-457k exp)
• Cushing +92k
• Gasoline +823k
• Distillates +662k

DOE

• Crude +8.487mm (-457k exp)
• Cushing -587k
• Gasoline -3.607mm
• Distillates -913k

Official data showed a huge US Crude inventory build last week, dramatically different from the small draw expected (and far larger than the API-reported build). Cushing saw stocks reduced and products saw notable draws.The headline build in crude stockpiles was largely offset by the withdrawal of nearly 7 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week. Total nationwide crude inventories (including commercial stockpiles and oil held in the SPR) rose by 1.5 million barrels in the week to May 6, with commercial inventories jumping by 8.4 million barrels. Withdrawals from the SPR hit the Biden Administration’s supply goal last week.

NYMEX WTI Futures Add to Gains Despite Large Crude Build - -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange continued higher in late-morning trade Wednesday after inventory data from the Energy Information Administration revealed petroleum product inventories in the United States fell by a larger-than-expected margin during the week ended May 6 and domestic producers reduced output, offsetting a supersized build in commercial oil inventories. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories spiked 8.5 million barrels (bbl) from the final week of April to 424.2 million bbl which is still 13% below the five-year average. Analysts estimated crude stockpiles would fall by 300,000 bbl. A surprise build came despite domestic refiners processing 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) more crude last week and domestic producers unexpectedly cut output by 100,000 bpd. At the current rate, U.S. production stands at 11.8 million bpd, still 1.1 million bpd below the pre-pandemic high set in February 2020. The refining capacity utilization rate increased by 1.6% from the previous week to 90.0% compared with a consensus by analysts for a 0.5% increase. Oil stored at the Cushing, Oklahoma, stock hub, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures, decreased 587,000 bbl from the previous week to 28.2 million bbl, the EIA said in its report. Higher refinery activity came even as demand for refined fuels softened in the first week of May, with gasoline demand in the United States sliding 154,000 bpd from the previous week to 8.702 million bpd and distillate demand decreasing 179,000 bpd to below 4 million bpd. Distillate stocks fell in line with expectations, down 913,000 million bpd to 104 million bbl to near the lowest level in 14 years and some 21% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories also dropped by a larger-than-expected 3.6 million bbl margin to 225 million bbl compared with analyst expectations for inventories to have decreased by 1.7 bbl. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.4 million bpd, up 1.6% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks through May 6, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million bpd, down by 1.4% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million bpd over the past four weeks, down 5.5% from the same period last year. Near 11:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI June futures rallied more than $5 to near $105 bbl, and the international crude benchmark Brent contract advanced $4.70 to more than $107 bbl. NYMEX June RBOB futures gained 11.05 cents to $3.6497 gallon, with front-month ULSD futures advancing about 8.75 cents to $4.0205 gallon.

Oil up as Russia gas flow to Europe falls, EU Russian oil ban looms - Oil prices jumped on Wednesday after plunging nearly 10% in the previous two sessions, buoyed by supply concerns as flows of Russian gas to Europe fell and the European Union worked on gaining support for a Russian oil embargo. Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine fell by a quarter after Kyiv halted use of a major transit route blaming interference by occupying Russian forces. It was the first time exports via Ukraine have been disrupted since the invasion. Brent crude rose $5.63, a 5.5% increase, to $108.09 a barrel by 1:13 p.m. EDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $6.47 to $106.23. The EU has proposed an embargo on Russian oil, which analysts say would further tighten the market and shift trade flows. A vote, which needs unanimous support, has been delayed as Hungary has dug in its heels in opposition. U.S. crude stocks rose by more than 8 million barrels in the most recent week, due to another large release from strategic reserves, the Energy Information Administration said. Commercial crude inventories have been growing as the White House has elected to flood the market with oil to offset the rise in prices. However, fuel prices have kept rising on the decline in refining capacity and surging demand for products worldwide - just as Russia's exports have been curtailed. That has driven refining margins to near-record levels in the United States. Despite the build in crude stocks, gasoline inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels in the latest week. "These draws are occurring across products - we are seeing refiners not able to keep up with demand for gasoline," Oil was also supported by hopes of Chinese economic stimulus, after China's factory-gate inflation eased and investors took comfort in signs of lower domestic Covid-19 infections. The price of crude has surged in 2022 as Russia's invasion of Ukraine added to supply concerns, with Brent reaching $139, the highest since 2008, in March. Worries about growth caused by China's Covid curbs and U.S. interest rate hikes have prompted this week's slump. A backdrop of tight supply because of what major producers say is partly a result of inadequate investment remains supportive for oil. The United Arab Emirates energy minister highlighted these concerns on Tuesday.

Oil slips on fears recession may hit demand - Oil prices fell on Thursday in a volatile week as recession fears dogged global financial markets, outweighing supply concerns and geopolitical tensions in Europe. Brent crude was down $1.92, or 1.8%, to $105.59 a barrel at 1202 GMT. WTI crude fell $1.79, or 1.7%, to $103.92 a barrel. Oil prices are under pressure this week, along with global financial markets, amid jitters over rising interest rates, the strongest U.S. dollar in two decades, concerns over inflation and possible recession. Prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns in the world's top crude importer, China, have also impacted the market. U.S. headline CPI for the 12 months to April jumped 8.3%, fueling concerns about bigger interest rate hikes, and their impact on economic growth. "Soaring pump prices and slowing economic growth are expected to significantly curb the demand recovery through the remainder of the year and into 2023," the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday in its monthly report. "Extended lockdowns across China ... are driving a significant slowdown in the world’s second largest oil consumer," the agency added. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2022 for a second straight month, citing the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation and the resurgence of the Omicron coronavirus variant in China. A pending European Union ban on oil from Russia, a key EU supplier of crude and fuels, could further tighten global supplies. The EU is still haggling over the details of the Russian embargo. The vote needs unanimous support, but it has been delayed as Hungary opposes the ban because it would be too disruptive to its economy. "The proposed oil embargo ... is expected to make the underlying oil balance even tighter than it already is, especially on the product front. Implementing these sanctions, however, is an arduous task," On Wednesday, oil prices jumped 5% after Russia sanctioned 31 companies based in countries that imposed sanctions on Moscow following the Ukraine invasion. That created unease in the market at the same time that Russian natural gas flows to Europe via Ukraine fell by a quarter. It was the first time exports via Ukraine have been disrupted since the invasion. Price gains have been limited by worries about demand destruction in China, as it attempts to curb the spread of the coronavirus. In the United States, commercial crude inventories rose last week because of a record release of oil from the U.S. strategic reserves, but gasoline stockpiles declined ahead of the peak summer driving demand season, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Oil Managed Slight Gain Emphasizing Tight Supply | Rigzone -- Oil managed a slim gain with the IEA highlighting the precariously tight state of global fuel stockpiles, while the EU signalled its members may not yet be able to agree on a Russian oil ban. West Texas Intermediate settled near $106 after fluctuating for most of the session on Thursday. European Union nations say it may be time to consider delaying a push to ban Russian oil if the bloc can’t persuade Hungary to back the embargo. A report by the International Energy Agency demonstrated how critical Russian supplies are to maintaining global fuel balances. There is currently an “almost universal product shortage,” it said in its monthly Oil Market Report. “The products story is starting to be the tail that is wagging the dog in crude,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “It simply can’t be ignored.” Oil has advanced more than 40% this year as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended an already tight supply-demand balance. The war is rerouting global crude flows, with the US and UK moving to ban the import of Russian barrels, while some Asian buyers take extra cargoes. As the war drags on, there’s mounting pressure on the European Union to curb its imports. US distillate stockpiles -- a category that includes diesel -- fell to the lowest level since 2005 last week, while gasoline supplies declined for a sixth week, according to the Energy Information Administration. The IEA says diesel inventories in the OECD are the lowest since 2008. WTI for June delivery rose 42 cents to settle at $106.13 a barrel in New York. Brent for July settlement was little changed falling 6 cents to settle at $107.45 a barrel. “Diesel drama is dominating the price action once again,” analysts at wholesale-fuel distributor TACenergy wrote in a note to clients. Gasoline stocks are also facing “logistical challenges as the world struggles to deal with the supply chain going from bad to worse over the past 3 months just in time to reach our peak demand season.” With concerns growing about dwindling fuel stockpiles, Bank of America this week said that oil product cracks -- the profits from turning crude into fuels -- will continue to rise in the near-term as refiners try to meet summer travel demand. It sees US gasoline trading at a $34 premium to Brent for the rest of the year.

Oil rises 4% as US gasoline prices jump to record high - Oil prices rose about 4 percent on Friday as United States gasoline prices jumped to a record high, China looked ready to ease pandemic restrictions and investors worried supplies will tighten if the European Union bans Russian oil. Brent futures rose $4.10, or 3.8 percent, to settle at $111.55 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $4.36, or 4.1 percent, to settle at $110.49. That was the highest close for WTI since March 25 and its third straight weekly rise. Brent fell for the first time in three weeks. US gasoline futures soared to an all-time high after stockpiles fell last week for a sixth straight week. That boosted the gasoline crack spread – a measure of refining profit margins – to its highest since it hit a record in April 2020 when WTI finished in negative territory. “There has not been an increase in (US) gasoline storage since March,” The US 3:2:1-crack spread, another measure of refining margins that includes gasoline and diesel, rose to a record, according to Refinitiv data going back to May 2021. Automobile club AAA said US prices at the pump rose to record highs on Friday of $4.43 per gallon for gasoline and $5.56 for diesel. Oil prices have been volatile, supported by worries a possible EU ban on Russian oil could tighten supplies but pressured by fears that a resurgent COVID-19 pandemic could cut global demand. “An EU embargo, if fully enacted, could take about 3 million bpd (barrels per day) of Russian oil offline, which will completely disrupt, and ultimately shift global trade flows, triggering market panic and extreme price volatility,” said Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson. This week, Moscow slapped sanctions on several European energy companies, causing worries about supplies. In China, authorities pledged to support the economy and city officials said Shanghai would start to ease coronavirus traffic restrictions and open shops this month. “Crude prices rallied on optimism that China’s COVID situation was not worsening and as risky assets rebounded,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and analytics firm OANDA. Global shares rose after a volatile week of trading, pushing up stock indexes in the United States and Europe. Pressuring oil prices during the week, inflation and rate rises drove the US dollar to a near 20-year high against a basket of currencies, making oil more expensive when purchased in other currencies. The EU said there was enough progress to relaunch nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US said it appreciated the EU’s efforts but said there was no agreement yet and no certainty that one might be reached. Analysts said an agreement with Iran could add another 1 million bpd of oil supply to the market.

Oil Mixed on Week: Brent Falls Slightly, U.S. Crude up Amid Record Pump Prices -- Crude prices were mixed on the week as Friday's trading oil closed, with global benchmark Brent showing a slight weekly loss amid a continued holdout by Europe on a Russian oil ban, while U.S. crude rose on strong summer demand bets and supply tightness that have pushed pump prices to record highs. Both Brent and U.S. crude’s West Texas Intermediate benchmark rose about 4% in Friday’s trade, extending their recovery from a near 10% loss in the first two days of the week sparked by fears that America might be tipped into recession from aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve trying to beat the worst inflation in 40 years. London-traded Brent settled at $111.55 a barrel, up $4.10, or 3.8%, on the day. For the week, it was down 0.7%. New York-traded WTI settled at $110.49, up $4.36, or 4.1%. For the week, it rose 0.7%. The divergence between Brent and WTI is "a story of two oils,” said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital. “The holdout on an European embargo of Russian oil, particularly by Hungary, is limiting Brent’s upside, while WTI is basking in bullish glory from the refining crunch in fuels that’s sent U.S. pump prices to record highs,” Kilduff said. Some European Union nations said on Friday that the push to ban Russian oil should probably be delayed to prioritize other sanctions against Moscow, particularly if the bloc could not win immediate consensus from Budapest for an embargo. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, meanwhile, tried to avert any blame on OPEC+ for the record high pump prices in the United States, saying it was a lack of U.S. refining capacity that was responsible for the crisis rather than supply from the global oil exporters alliance. OPEC+ has managed to push crude prices up from their lows whenever it meets each month, by offering a meager production hikes at well below the market’s needs. “The bottleneck [in U.S. fuel supply] now [has] to do with refining,” Abdulaziz told Bloomberg in an interview on Friday. “I did warn this was coming back in October. Many refineries in the world, especially in Europe and the US, have closed over the last few years. The world is running out of energy capacity at all levels.” Record-high fuel prices are testing the mettle of U.S. consumers, with gasoline at above $4.50 per gallon at some US pumps while diesel retails at above $6. The International Energy Agency cautioned on Thursday that soaring pump prices and slowing economic growth are expected to significantly curb the demand recovery through the remainder of the year and into 2023. Economists, meanwhile, warn that the US economy, finally on the path to resilience after the damage wrought by the two-year-long coronavirus pandemic, could head for recession again from a one-two punch delivered by record-high fuel prices and Fed rate hikes.

Saudi Aramco becomes world’s most valuable stock as Apple drops— Saudi Aramco overtook Apple Inc. as the world’s most valuable company, stoked by a surge in oil prices that is buoying the crude producer while adding to an inflation surge throttling demand for technology stocks. Aramco traded near its highest level on record on Wednesday, with a market capitalization of about $2.43 trillion, surpassing that of Apple for the first time since 2020. The iPhone maker fell 5.2% to close at $146.50 per share, giving it a valuation of $2.37 trillion. Even if the move proves short-lived and Apple retakes the top spot again, the role reversal underscores the power of major forces coursing through the global economy. Soaring oil prices, while great for profits at Aramco, are exacerbating rising inflation that is forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the fastest pace in decades. The higher rates go, the more investors discount the value of future revenue flows from tech companies and push down their stock prices. “You can’t compare Apple to Saudi Aramco in terms of their businesses or fundamentals, but the outlook for the commodity space has improved. They’re the beneficiaries of inflation and tight supply,” said James Meyer, chief investment officer at Tower Bridge Advisors. Earlier this year, Apple boasted a market value of $3 trillion, about $1 trillion more than Aramco’s. Since then, however, Apple has fallen nearly 20% while Aramco is up 28%.

UN says 'imminent' Yemen oil spill would cost $20 bn to clean up - The United Nations warned Monday that it would cost $20 billion to clean up an oil spill in the event of the "imminent" break-up of an oil tanker abandoned off Yemen. "Our recent visit to (the FSO Safer) with technical experts indicates that the vessel is imminently going to break up," the UN humanitarian coordinator for Yemen, David Gressly, said ahead of a conference, hosted by the UN and The Netherlands, to raise funds for an emergency operation to prevent an oil spill. The 45-year-old FSO Safer, long used as a floating oil storage platform with 1.1 million barrels of crude on board, has been moored off the rebel-held Yemeni port of Hodeida since 2015, without being serviced. "The impact of a spill will be catastrophic," Gressly continued at a briefing in Amman. "The effect on the environment would be tremendous... our estimate is that $20 billion would be spent just to clean the oil spill." The UN official had earlier announced on Twitter that the Netherlands would host on Wednesday a pledging conference for the international body's plan to avert the crisis. Last month, the UN said it was seeking nearly $80 million for its operation. It warned of "a humanitarian and ecological catastrophe centred on a country already decimated by more than seven years of war". It said that the emergency part of a two-stage operation would see the toxic cargo pumped from the storage platform to a temporary replacement vessel at a cost of $79.6 million. Gressly estimated that a total of $144 million would be needed for the full operation, reiterating that $80 million was needed "to secure the oil safely in the initial phase". Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed directly or indirectly in Yemen's seven-year war, while millions have been displaced in what the UN calls the world's biggest humanitarian crisis.

UN leads £65m plan to stop huge oil spill off Yemen during first ceasefire in six years --The UN is to stage a rare donor conference on Wednesday in a bid to raise the $80m (£65m) necessary to prevent an ageing oil tanker off the west coast of Yemen exploding and causing an environmental disaster potentially four times worse than the Exxon Valdez spill near Alaska in 1989.The money is needed to offload more than 1.14m barrels of oil that have been sitting in the decrepit cargo ship, Safer, for more than six years because of an impasse between Houthi groups and the Saudi-backed government over ownership and responsibility. Previous UN mediation efforts over the potentially lethal byproduct of Yemen’s civil war have failed, partly because the Houthi rebels that now control the capital, Sana’a, have not been able to agree terms for UN-commissioned engineers to board the ship. The Houthis have regarded the ship and its lucrative cargo as their possession and a bargaining chip in the negotiations with the Saudi- and Emirati-backed forces. Expert engineers and environmentalists have warned the ship is an unexploded timebomb capable of causing an ecological disaster. UN estimates suggest that if the ship’s cargo is unleashed into the Red Sea, more than 200,000 fishermen would lose their jobs and $20bn would be required for a clean-up operation. But under a new agreement, laboriously negotiated over six months by the UN and Dutch diplomats, an international donor conference will aim to raise the required $80m to offload the light crude oil. The plan is the brainchild of the UN resident coordinator and humanitarian coordinator for Yemen, David Gressly, who claims it has the support of the Saudi-backed and Houthi-backed governments. A memorandum of understanding was signed by the Houthis on 5 March that allows the UN to transfer about 1.1m barrels of oil from the vessel, which is stranded 8km off Ras Isa port on Yemen’s Houthi-held west coast. The oil would be transferred to a secure vessel which would remain in place. A new tanker would be purchased for the Houthis within 18 months to replace Safer, thus providing them with the insurance that they would be able to operate a profitable oil export industry when the civil war ends. The Safer vessel would be towed and sold for scrap. The Houthis would have no legal or commercial liability.

Yemen: $33 million pledged to address decaying oil tanker threat - The FSO Safer, which is holding more than a million barrels of oil, has been described as a “time bomb” because it is at risk of causing a major spill, either from leaking, breaking apart or exploding. The commitments were made at a pledging conference in The Hague, co-sponsored by the UN and the Netherlands, marking the start of efforts to raise the $144 million required for the plan. “We are grateful to the donors that committed funding today at very short notice and look forward to receiving further commitments from those that have not yet pledged. When we have the funding, the work can begin,” said David Gressly, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen. The FSO Safer was constructed in 1976 as an oil tanker and converted to a floating storage and offloading (FSO) facility a decade later. At 376 metres long, it is among the largest oil tankers in the world. The crude oil it holds is four times the amount spilled by the Exxon Valdez, the tanker that caused one of the greatest environmental disasters in the history of the United States. The ship has been anchored off Yemen’s Red Sea coast for more than 30 years. Production, offloading, and maintenance stopped in 2015 due to the war between a pro-Government Saudi-led coalition, and Houthi rebels. The vessel is now beyond repair and at imminent risk of spilling oil, which would have far-reaching consequences. Fishing communities on the Red Sea coast would be devasted, and the nearby ports of Hudaydah and Saleef would close. Both are critical for the entry of food, fuel and lifesaving supplies in a country where some 17 million people depend on humanitarian aid. Any oil spill would also have an environmental impact on water, reefs and mangroves, and also disrupt shipping through the Bab al-Mandab strait to the Suez Canal. Clean-up alone would cost an estimated $20 million.

Al Jazeera Accuses Israel Of 'Blatant Murder' After Its Star Reporter Shot Dead In West Bank Raid - The media outlet Al Jazeera accused Israeli forces of "deliberately targeting and killing our colleague" on Wednesday after Palestinian journalist Shireen Abu Akleh was shot in the face while covering a raid on the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank.In a statement, the Al Jazeera Media Network said that Abu Akleh—who worked as the publication's Palestine correspondent—was wearing a press jacket that clearly identified her as a journalist when Israeli forces shot her "with live fire.Al Jazeera, which is based in Qatar, called the attack "a blatant murder," saying Abu Akleh, 51, was "assassinated in cold blood."The statement continued:Al Jazeera Media Network condemns this heinous crime, which intends to only prevent the media from conducting their duty. Al Jazeera holds the Israeli government and the occupation forces responsible for the killing of Shireen. It also calls on the international community to condemn and hold the Israeli occupation forces accountable for their intentional targeting and killing of Shireen.The Israeli authorities are also responsible for the targeting of Al Jazeera producer Ali al-Samudi, who was also shot in the back while covering the same event, and he is currently undergoing treatment.Al Jazeera extends its sincere condolences to the family of Shireen in Palestine, and to her extended family around the world, and we pledge to prosecute the perpetrators legally, no matter how hard they try to cover up their crime, and bring them to justice.Footage from the scene shows the moments after Abu Akleh was shot.(Warning: The video is disturbing)Footage shows the moments of Al Jazeera’s senior reporter Shireen Abu Aqla’s death.In appearance, Israeli footage that says there was a Palestinian cross fire doesn’t fit with this location.She is also wearing a helmet and body armour. pic.twitter.com/fYCMQqxlxf

Watch: Chaos In Jerusalem As Israeli Police Attack Slain Al Jazeera Journalist's Funeral Procession -Jerusalem's old city erupted in chaos and violence on Friday as thousands of Palestinians descended on the Christian quarter to pay their final respects to slain Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh. "Israeli police on Friday moved in on a crowd of mourners at the funeral of Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, beating demonstrators with batons and causing pallbearers to briefly drop the casket," The Associated Press describes.The Qatar-based network has accused Israeli forces of shooting her in the face when two days ago she was covering a West Bank raid, and had a press flak jacket and helmet on. An Al Jazeera statement alleged that it was an intentional "assassination".Horrible scenes as Israeli security forces beat the funeral procession for slain journalist Shireen Abu Akleh and the crowd momentarily lose control of her casket pic.twitter.com/DEJF5Ty9tZ  Mourners of the 51-year-old Palestinian-American Christian had draped her casket in a Palestinian flag, and that's reportedly what triggered the beefed up Israeli security presence from allowing her funeral procession to pass."The funeral procession began at the hospital in east Jerusalem, with last respects then to be paid at a church in the Old City before her body was laid to rest alongside her parents in a nearby cemetery," CBS News reports. "But the violence began as soon as Abu Akleh's casket was carried out of the hospital gates, where Israeli security forces had gathered."The report continues, "Video showed them surging t oward the funeral procession before grabbing and roughing up some of the mourners, including those carrying the coffin." Indeed the footage shows a brutal attack with batons and kicking, which even targets the pallbearers...

Islamic Emirate Announces Rules for Women’s Covering |-The Islamic Emirate announced new rules regarding women’s covering or hijab on Saturday, saying it will be implemented in two steps -- encouragement and punishment – and defining the types of dress that women will need to wear when stepping out of home. The plan was confirmed by Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme leader of the Islamic Emirate. “If a woman doesn't wear a hijab, first, her house will be located and her guardian will be advised and warned. Next, if the hijab is not considered, her guardian will be summoned. If repeated, her guardian (father, brother or husband) will be imprisoned for three days. If repeated again, her guardian will be sent to court for further punishment, the plan reads,” said Akif Mahajar, a spokesman for the Ministry of Vice and virtue. A statement from the Vice and Virtue Ministry of the Islamic Emirate reads that hijab is an obligation in Islam and that any dress that covers the body can be considered as hijab given that it is not “thin and tight.” When it comes to the type of the covering or hijab that women will need to wear, the statement says that burka is the best type of hijab/covering “as it is part of Afghan culture and it has been used for ages.” It adds that another preferred type of hijab is a long black veil and dress that “should not be thin or tight.” The statement, called “the descriptive and accomplishable plan on legitimate hijab,” also instructs women not to step out of home unless it is necessary, calling it one of the best ways of observing hijab. The plan was announced by the Ministry of Vice and Virtue on Saturday at a press conference in Kabul.

 Tadamon massacre exposé lifts veil of secrecy over Syrian war atrocities -- Forty-one civilians in all were murdered in a single coldblooded incident in 2013. One by one, the blindfolded detainees were brought to the edge of a freshly dug pit in the Damascus suburb of Tadamon and systematically shot. The bodies, piled one on top of the other, were later set on fire. Footage of the massacre, carried out by Syrian militia members loyal to President Bashar Assad, emerged only in April this year following an expose by the UK’s Guardian newspaper and the online New Lines Magazine. The amateur video, taken by the killers themselves, was discovered by a militia recruit in the laptop of one of his seniors. Sickened by what he had seen, the rookie passed the video on to researchers, who later confronted one of the killers identified in the footage. A Syrian woman holds images of victims of the Assad regime outside a German courtroom. (AFP) Journalists and activists from southern Damascus, speaking to Arab News following online circulation of the video, said that the Tadamon massacre was unlikely to have been the only atrocity committed in the area during that period. Throughout 2012 and 2013, pro-regime militias would shoot random passers-by at checkpoints in Tadamon, Yalda and the Yarmouk camp, and also gun down people in their homes. Bodies of the victims were often left to rot, according to local residents. “We would hear about these massacres and the burning of corpses,” Rami Al-Sayed, a photographer from the Tadamon neighborhood, told Arab News. “We knew that anyone arrested by the shabiha of Nisreen Street would be disappeared and, in most cases, executed.”

Nato’s eastern front: will the military build-up make Europe safer? --British Challenger 2 tanks prowl the Polish countryside. Elite French special forces troops keep watch on Romania’s Black Sea coast. US missile batteries scan the skies of Slovakia. A Norwegian F-35 scrambles to intercept an unidentified Russian aircraft that appears off the coast of Finland. As battle rages in Ukraine, Nato allies along the alliance’s eastern flank have collectively embarked on the most significant — and rapid — military deployment in the history of modern Europe: a state of alert and readiness short of war, but also far from peace. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has wrenched Europe and Nato back to a scenario that it thought it had consigned to the past. Scrambling for relevancy after the ignominious retreat from Afghanistan and riven with divides between European allies with vastly different views of its future role, the alliance had earmarked 2022 for a reboot to follow the US pivot towards Asia and the threat from China. In the space of a few weeks, it has instead forged an unprecedented level of unity in response to its original adversary: Moscow. Today, eastern Europe is more militarised than at any time since the height of the cold war. Once again, nuclear-armed superpowers face off across the wide expanse between the Baltic and the Black seas. At the same time, arms control deals from the cold war era, such as the INF Treaty that banned cruise missiles with a range of 500-5,500km, and the Open Skies agreement, which allowed Russia and Nato members to conduct reconnaissance flights over the other’s military sites, have been torn up. The same goes for communication and deconfliction channels between Moscow and western capitals. The outcome is a continent with more weapons and soldiers at a state of high alert than it has seen for decades but without the guard rails that provided reassurance during the cold war: Europe is arguably less safe today than at any point since 1945. This has raised the question as to whether Nato’s military build-up has made Europe better protected, or simply intensified an already fraught situation. The Russian president sees it as just the most recent step in an ever more threatening posture that justified his attack on Kyiv. In recent days, he has stepped up his rhetoric regarding a possible strike on Nato members — a move that would almost certainly trigger Article 5, the alliance’s mutual defence pact, and most likely precipitate a world war. He has accused the alliance of both intimidation and fighting a proxy war against him in Ukraine through billions of dollars in weapons supplies. “We have all the weapons we need for this,” he said last week of a potential response, referring to Russia’s most modern nuclear missile system. “No one else can brag about these weapons, and we won’t brag about them. But we will use them.” Nato argues it has little choice but to expand its presence in eastern Europe. “Is it safer? Well, not doing it will not make us safer,” says Admiral Rob Bauer, chair of the Nato Military Committee, the alliance’s highest military authority. “Not being strong and credible is more dangerous than being strong and credible,” he adds. “The deterrence factor is very important.”

UN Chief Joins Chorus Of Western Officials Saying 'No Chance' Of Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal Anytime Soon - Even as Russia's foreign ministry confirmed that its Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov held a rare meeting with Washington's ambassador to Moscow John Sullivan to "discuss bilateral issues" - though with no further details given - multiple statements from top officials of the past two days suggest things still look dire for the Ukraine conflict, for at least the near future.First, in testimony given before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday, US National Intelligence Director Avril Haines said that she sees a protracted conflict unfolding with the unlikelihood of an offramp in the form of negotiations or compromise by either side. "As both Russia and Ukraine believe they can continue to make progress militarily, we do not see a viable negotiating path forward, at least in the short term,” Haines said. She added, "Even if they are successful, we are not confident the fight in Donbas will effectively end the war" - speaking of Russian ambitions to take over the eastern region.Next, in fresh Wednesday statements by United Nations chief António Guterres, the Secretary-General struck an equally ominous tone in seeming to second the US intelligence head's take. "It was clear for us that, at the present moment, there are no immediate chances of a peace agreement or immediate chances for a global ceasefire," he told a press briefingHe repeated calls for Russia to immediately halt the invasion while stressing that the humanitarian suffering is causing a domino effect even beyond Ukraine's borders.Related to this, he described current UN efforts in the region as focused on opening channels of communications between Moscow and Kiev in order to ensure safe evacuation corridors for civilians, akin to what's lately been accomplished in Mariupol.Guterres further took the opportunity to again condemn the aggression against Ukraine, saying, "The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing massive devastation, destruction and suffering in the country, triggering the largest displacement in Europe since World War II – and sending shockwaves across the region and world." He then repeated: "This senseless war must stop." Given there's been much speculation among Washington intelligence officials over discerning President Vladimir Putin's possible "end game" in Ukraine, the UN chief was asked the same thing in the Wednesday press briefing. He responded: "If I knew that, I would have divining capacities."

Maria Alyokhina: Pussy Riot member disguises herself as food courier to flee Russia A member of the Russian protest group Pussy Riot, Maria Alyokhina, has fled Russia, claiming in an interview with the New York Times in Lithuania that she was able to shake her police monitor by disguising herself as a meal courier. The activist thus joins thousands of Russians who have left the country since the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine. Last September Alyokhina was sentenced to one year of "restrictions" on her freedom, which included judicial controls, night curfews and a ban on leaving Moscow, for having called for a demonstration against the arrest of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. At the end of April, the Russian justice system toughened those measures, replacing them with a prison sentence. In an interview with the New York Times, the 33-year-old said on Wednesday that she had managed to escape Moscow disguised as a meal delivery girl, leaving her mobile phone behind to act as a decoy and prevent the police from tracking her. She then crossed the border into neighbouring Belarus and a week later was able to cross into Lithuania, after several attempts.

Russia needs de-Nazification, says Pussy Riot leader after escape (Reuters) - Russia, not Ukraine, needs de-Nazification, the leader of anti-Kremlin punk band Pussy Riot, who left Russia this week by disguising herself as a food courier, said before her group kicks off a concert tour against the war. At a rehearsal for a concert on Thursday in the German capital, Maria Alyokhina said Russians needed to think carefully about the war. "I have no idea what will be the end of this reflection but without that, the country doesn't have a right to exist – like Germany after the Second World War. It’s Russia where we should have a de-Nazification, not Ukraine," she told Reuters Television. There should also be a tribunal against Russian President Vladimir Putin and army generals and leaders, she said. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" to disarm the country and protect it from fascists. It denies targeting civilians. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on her remark that de-Nazification was needed in Russia, not Ukraine, and that Putin and his generals should go on trial. To aid her escape from house arrest, Alyokhina wore a delivery uniform, which her girlfriend had bought online, and slipped out of a back door of the building she was staying in, eluding Russian police outside, she said. "I went to another flat, which was like a conspiratorial flat, without my mobile phone," she told Reuters Television. Alyokhina said her compatriots wanted change but that many were scared of being thrown behind bars for speaking out. "A lot of people are really afraid because you can now go to prison up to 10 years just for posting photos from Bucha, just for making this post," she said. Russian officials have said the new law to stop the intentional spread of "fake" news is needed because to protect its military and combat misinformation about its military campaign in Ukraine. Pussy Riot was rehearsing a new song about the war, said Alyokhina. "We wrote it two weeks ago. It's against the war, against the war which Putin started against Ukraine. It's our statement and it will be performed as a part of the concert," she said.

Russian energy supplier cuts off electricity to Finland amid NATO bid -A Russian energy supplier officially cut off electricity to Finland on Saturday ahead of the Nordic country’s expected announcement that it plans to join NATO.“It is at zero at the moment, and that started from midnight as planned,” the manager for operational planning for Finnish transmission system operator Fingrid, Timo Kaukonen, told AFP on Saturday.Fingrid had disclosed on Friday that Russia would be cutting off its supply to the country beginning early Saturday, but the Finnish transmission system operator said that its electricity only made up 10 percent of the country’s consumption.“The lack of electricity import from Russia will be compensated by importing more electricity from Sweden and by generating more electricity in Finland,” Reima Päivinen, senior vice president of power system operations at Fingrid, said in a statement. RAO Nordic Oy, the Russian energy supplier, said in its own statement on Friday that it had been forced to suspend imports because Finland had allegedly not paid for its electricity.

Did NATO cause the war in Ukraine? -In an interview last week with the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera, Pope Francis said that “NATO barking at Russia” caused the Kremlin “to react badly and unleash the conflict.” Yet, entirely dismissing the pope’s stunning remark might be short-sighted because, certainly, some U.S. and NATO actions did indeed cause the Kremlin to “react badly.” Over the past 22 years in particular, several of America’s policies, miscues and miscalculations towards Russia have backfired. None can be used as an excuse for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegal and horrific war in Ukraine. But a brief review of U.S.-Russian relations underscores the power of unintended consequences.Putin became acting Russian president on New Year’s Day 2000, the same year George W. Bush would be elected America’s 43rd president. The Boris Yeltsin presidency left Russia in dire straits, psychologically damaged by the demise of its once superpower status. In his Millennium Address that day, Putin provided the outlines of how he would restore Russian greatness.Initially, Bush and Putin got along. But the new administration’s obsession with Iran as the enemy led Bush to focus the Pentagon on missile defense and space. One consequence was that Bush announced America’s intent to withdraw from the 1974 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty that had been central to the U.S.-USSR strategic relationship. Abrogating the treaty did not go down well in Moscow, especially given the the huge military technological lead the Kremlin believed Washington had after the 1991 Gulf War. That was before 9-11.When America intervened in Afghanistan in late 2001, Putin was irritated because the Bush team rejected Russian advice based on its decade-long failure in that country. In 2003, Putin strongly counseled Bush against invading Iraq, as the Russian leader feared the region would be thrown into turmoil. And the continuing expansion of NATO was neuralgic for Russia. A series of U.S. administrations downplayed or ignored how serious this issue was for Russia.At the Munich Security Conference, Putin unleashed an angry broadside against the U.S. as a “uni-power” and against NATO expansion. Participants were shocked by the intensity of Putin’s attacks but otherwise largely dismissed them. That was a mistake. It was clear that Putin believed he was being disrespected and marginalized by the U.S. and NATO, adding to his growing resentment about the patronizing treatment he believed Russia was receiving.

90-Year Old Catholic Cardinal Arrested In Hong Kong Under China's National Security Law - Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun (also, Joseph Zen), a highly visible and outspoken pro-democracy activist and the former Catholic bishop of Hong Kong, has been arrested by HK authorities, local media is reporting Wednesday. The 90-year old church hierarch, who had been Hong Kong's Catholic bishop starting in 2002 before stepping down in 2009, has been a consistent supporter of anti-mainland activists, even recently organizing a relief fund to help detained protesters pay their legal fees. He was arrested alongside former opposition lawmaker Margaret Ng Ngoi-yee and singer, actress, and activist Denise Ho Wan-sze. Hong Kong authorities allege they were "colluding with foreign forces" - a very generalized charge which invokes the controversial pro-China so-called national security law which took effect in June 2020 - following well over a year of fierce anti-Beijing protests taking over Hong Kong streets and universities. The law broadly covers "terrorism, subversion, secession and collusion with foreign forces" - and activists and international critics have said it is now routinely used as blanket pro-China enforcement to snuff out all non-approved speech and protests, even including news content and film. The elderly bishop Zen has been detained reportedly related to his work in establishing and operating what's called the 612 Humanitarian Relief Fund - which offers the aforementioned monetary and legal assistance to jailed Hong Kong dissidents. The South China Morning Post details, "The three, who were detained on Wednesday, were among five trustees of the 612 Humanitarian Relief Fund, which was set up to offer financial assistance to those involved in anti-government protests in 2019 and which came under the intense scrutiny of authorities over the past year." This is possibly the latest in a growing body of evidence that the national security law is being applied retroactively. "A fourth trustee, former adjunct associate professor Hui Po Keung, was arrested by national security police on Tuesday as he was about to catch a flight to Germany, a source said," the SCMP report indicated further.

What You Need To Know about Solomon Islands -A new world order is coming into being in Oceania, it seems, with Solomon Islands as the epicentre of geopolitical competition between China and the US.This nation of almost 1,000 islands (of which only 147 are inhabited) and 650,000 people, in the South Pacific, hasn’t exactly been a global player since it gained independence from Britain in the 1970s. It’s “one of the poorest countries in the region with a low level of human development”,according to the United Nations. So why the international political squall?The reason is that China has just signed a new security agreement with Solomon Islands, which has caused much spluttering in the US, Australia and New Zealand. Under the terms of the deal, China’s navy will now be able to dock vessels roughly 1,250 miles north-east of Australia, in a region that Australia’s home affairs minister recently described as “our backyard”.And Chinese police, rather than Australian police, will now train Solomon Islands’ security forces. It’s a sign that Canberra’s traditional influence in the South Pacific is waning – and the blowback remains intense.A senior US official in the Pacific refused to rule out military action against Solomon Islands if it allows China to establish a military base there. And Australia’s defence minister, Peter Dutton, declared that his people should “prepare for war” to counter China’s actions in the region. Short of actual war, there has been a verbal fusillade. Australia’s prime minister Scott Morrison warned that a Chinese base would be a “red line”. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin has accused Western powers of “deliberately exaggerating tensions” over the pact.In the Solomon Islands parliament, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare denounced “those who brand us as backyard.” That’s a place, he said, “where rubbish is collected and burnt […] where we relieved ourselves.” Instead, said Sogavare, Solomon Islands demands respect “as a sovereign impartial nation with one equal vote in the United Nations”.“There’s not that much money to be made in Solomons, with the exception of a few mines, but they’re not actually that significant,” University of Queensland professor Shahar Hameiri told openDemocracy. “Australia has spent way more money in Solomons [since independence] than you’d ever extract out of it. Historically, it has been a very dependent country.”To the wider world, it is a distant signpost of historical conflict, as the site of some of the fiercest battles between US and Japanese troops in the Second World War. The Battle of Guadacanal, on an island west of Honiara, the country’s capital, proved decisive for the Allied forces.But it’s not all in the past: the devastating legacy of war continues to make headlines because Solomon Islands still lives with – and dies from – thousands of unexploded bombs. As recently as last May, a Solomon Islander died from an exploding WWII artillery shell, prompting calls for the US to clean up “your mess”. It is telling that the Solomon Islands government website actually offers the chance to obtain a “WWII Scrap Metal Export Permit”.But Solomon Islands is about more than just bombs. The unspooling story about the great power competition in the South Pacific archipelago is part of a much older one, of colonial conceit and arrogance. Here are three key points that help make sense of both Solomon Islands’ history and current political developments:

Nuking Pakistan better than giving power to thieves, says Imran Khan -Issuing a weird statement, former Prime Minister Imran Khan said that "dropping an atomic bomb would have been better than handing over the helm to the thieves". Khan made these remarks while interacting with reporters on Friday at his Banigala residence, according to The News international. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf chairman also said that he was shocked to see the "thieves" being foisted on the country, adding that dropping an atomic bomb would have been better than handing over the helm to these people. According to The News International, Khan said those powerful people who would tell him the tales of corruption of the "previous rulers" started advising him to focus on his government's performance instead of the graft charges against others. He further said that the thieves brought into power destroyed every institution and the judicial system, asking now which government official would probe the cases of "these criminals". Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has said that Imran Khan is "poisoning" the minds of the people of Pakistan with his speeches targeting state institutions. "The nation has been divided as Khan repeatedly called (the then-Opposition and now government) thieves and dacoits," Shehbaz had said during the first regular session of the National Assembly since the new government's formation. The PTI chairman had warned Shehbaz Sharif's government that no power could stop them from entering the federal capital during the long march to be held on May 20. He warned the federal government led by Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) that over two million people will reach Islamabad to get real independence and to protest against the "imported government," ARY News reported. Khan told the Shehbaz Sharif-led government that two million people will come to the federal capital irrespective of how many containers are put up to create hindrances. "Our opponents say if the temperature is high, then people will not come out. Put as many containers as you want, but 2 million people will come to Islamabad," said Imran Khan.

Brazil studies removing import tax on steel, other products –source (Reuters) - Brazil's government is studying removing import tariffs on 11 food and construction products, including steel, to help cool down consumer prices, said a source familiar with the matter. According to the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the measures are under study, the government is considering including the products in the differentiated import tariff regime for Mercosur members, which allows rates to be zeroed without the need to negotiate with other members from the South American trade bloc. A 10% reduction in Mercosur's common external tariff is also on the table, said the source, following a first cut announced by Brazil in November as an exceptional move within the group's rules. Brazil has been facing persistent double-digit inflation, with the commodity shock exacerbated by the Ukraine war weighing on prospects. Adding to pressures, state-run oil company Petrobras said on Monday it would raise diesel prices by 8.9%. President Jair Bolsonaro, who seeks reelection in October, has already reduced some taxes in an attempt to ease inflation, lowering taxation on industrialized products (IPI) and eliminating tariffs on ethanol and six basic food products. The source also pointed out that the government plans a tax reform with a 10% tax on dividends and a reduction in the tax burden on corporate income to 30% from 34%. The reform is lighter than a proposal already approved in the Lower House last year but not voted on in the Senate. It established a 15% tax on currently exempt company dividends, and a reduction in corporate income burden to 26%. Political negotiations are underway for the bill to be reconsidered in the Senate, but modified to be a "mini-reform", the source said, discarding the inclusion of changes to reduce individuals' income tax.

Draghi Warns War Could Bring "Drastic" Changes For Europe -Risky assets have been granted a little more of a reprieve this morning on the back of better news regarding Covid in China. New infections detected within quarantine facilities fell in Shanghai and the city reported that there were no cases of the virus spreading within the community. This prompted speculation of a potential easing of lockdown conditions in China just a day after the WHO criticised the country’s zero-Covid strategy as unsustainable. However, the FT has reported that a study from Shanghai’s Fudan University shows that an “unchecked surge of the Omicron variant could result in 112mn symptomatic infections, 2.7mn intensive care admissions and almost 1.6mn fatalities between May and July”. This underscores the risks of loosening Covid restrictions in China prematurely. Further support for stock markets this morning came from President Biden who hinted that some Trump era tariffs on China could be dropped as a way of lowering prices for US consumers. Stronger Chinese inflation data, however, could counter the improved tone. The recent lockdowns in China have sparked concerns about supply chain disruption and inflation throughout the global economy. A recent survey from the American Chamber of Commerce suggested that in Shanghai only 70% of the manufacturing capacity is still functioning with about 2/3rds of firms reporting slowdowns. While the "as expected" final CPI data from Germany will keep the inflation theme rolling in the European morning, the main data event of the day will be the release of US April CPI inflation numbers. Fed Chair Powell last week took the risk of a 75 bps Fed rate hike off the table for the next couple of meetings, but yesterday his colleague Mester indicated that a move of this size could be possible in H2 if inflation did not moderate. The market is anticipating that the headline April CPI inflation release will edge lower to 8.1% y/y from 8.5% the previous month. While data in line with the consensus may be enough to dampen fears that the Fed could consider moving in 75 bps increments in the coming months, at these levels the Fed will be keeping its eye firmly on the inflationary ball. Two more consecutive 50 bps moves from the Fed are firmly in the market’s sights for the next couple of FOMC meetings. The money market is currently priced for an additional 219 bps of policy tigthening on a 1 year view. Mester’s hawkish remarks contributed to the erosion of the better tone that had lifted stock indices early in yesterday’s session. The reprieve had followed a plunge in crude oil prices, though this was in part triggered by fears of demand destruction on the back of global growth fears. The fall in crude prices earlier this week did not translate into lower prices at the pumps for US consumers. The country is suffering shortfalls of diesel, petrol and jet fuel as the refining system is stretched by the post-pandemic recovery in demand. This has raised a few red flags for the Biden administration as the summer’s driving season nears. Crude oil has edged higher this morning on the back of hopes that China’s lockdowns may be eased. Yesterday’s visit by Italian PM Draghi to the White House was aimed at making clear Italy’s allegiance with the West. On the day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Draghi had opposed excluding Russian banks from the SWIFT payments system. This move triggered a hostile response from former European Council chief Tusk. Some of Italy’s coalition government parties have also voiced scepticism about the impact of the war on Italy’s economy. Draghi used his meeting with President Biden to underpin the urgent need for the allies to work on peace negotiations for Ukraine, warning that the war could bring "drastic" changes for Europe. Earlier this week US intelligence officials reported that Russian President Putin could be preparing for a long conflict. The economic outlook for the EU remains hostage to issues surrounding energy security. Yesterday French President Macron and PM Orban of land-locked Hungary continued to discuss possible ways forward for a proposed embargo of Russia energy. Orban is concerned about the provision of alternative energy supplies for Hungary. This morning European natural gas prices popped higher after Ukraine reported that flows of Russian gas through a key transit point in the country dried up yesterday. According to Reuters, Ukraine has blamed the suspension of the supply on the interference of Russian occupying forces. However, the gas operator has stated that gas supplied would be re-directed through another transit point in Ukraine.