NB: the original copy of this post has been removed by Blogger for a violation of their Community Guidelines. Since this post was entirely sourced from other sites and included over 500 links; there is no way i can determine what they found offensive. Hence am going to republish the post without any links, which should eliminate whatever the problem was. Readers should be able to find the original content via search, but in the event they can’t, they can use the contact information below and i will provide it…
* * * * *
Fed's Evans Backs 'Front-loaded' Rate Hikes, Then Measured Pace -Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans on Tuesday said he supports an initial burst of monetary policy tightening, and then a more "measured" pace of rate hikes to allow time to assess inflation and the impact of higher borrowing costs on the job market. "I think front-loading is important to speed up the necessary tightening of financial conditions, as well as for demonstrating our commitment to restrain inflation, thus helping to keep inflationary expectations in check," Evans said in remarks prepared for delivery to Money Marketeers of New York University. Inflation, running at more than three times the Fed's 2% target, is "much too high," Evans said, and the Fed should raise its policy rate "expeditiously" to a neutral range of about 2.25%-2.5%. Fed policymakers have begun doing so. They raised rates by a bigger-than-usual half-of-a-percentage point earlier this month, to a range of 0.75%-1%, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled at least two more such rate hikes to come. The Fed also plans to start trimming its $9 trillion balance sheet next month. But Evans' preference for transitioning to a more "measured pace" - a phrase that in the past has meant quarter-point rate hikes -- sounded a bit more dovish than Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who spoke earlier in the day. The central bank, Powell told the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, will keep "pushing" on rate hikes until it sees inflation move down in a "clear and convincing way" and will not hesitate to move more aggressively it that does not happen. Evans said that slowing the pace of rate hikes after an initial front-loading would give the Fed time to check if supply chain kinks ease, and to evaluate inflation dynamics and the impact of higher borrowing costs on what called a "downright tight" labor market. Unempl: the ooyment is at 3.6% and job openings are at a record high. "If we need to, we will be well positioned to respond more aggressively if inflation conditions do not improve sufficiently or, alternatively, to scale back planned adjustments if economic conditions soften in a way that threatens our employment mandate," Evans said. With inflation pressures as broad and strong as they are, he said, interest rates may need to rise "somewhat" above neutral to bring down inflation. Traders are betting on that, with prices in futures contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate reflecting expectations for an end-of-year policy rate range of 2.75%-3%. But in Evans' view that doesn't mean the Fed will end up triggering a recession, as critics including several former U.S. central bankers have recently warned. "Given the current strength in aggregate demand, strong demand for workers, and the supply-side improvements that I expect to be coming, I believe a modestly restrictive stance will still be consistent with a growing economy," Evans said.
Fed Aggressiveness Following Delayed Liftoff Sets Up 2023 Collision -- If two trains are heading towards each other at different speeds, when will they collide? This grade school arithmetic problem is playing out in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) execution of monetary policy. In this case, one train is the aggressive tightening plan as telegraphed by the Fed and the other is the U.S. economy which, while still strong, is showing a few signs of cooling. Investors want to know when the collision—a recession—will occur. The Fed’s dual mandate calls for full employment and price stability. Historically, the Fed would change the fed funds rate in response to changes in the unemployment rate and changes in inflation (i.e., the second derivative of the price level). Simply adding up these changes (flipping the sign for unemployment) has tracked well with changes in Fed policy. This relationship has held over several decades and through both tightening and loosening of monetary policy. However, over the past year there has been a notable divergence in this relationship. The steep drop in unemployment and sharp acceleration in inflation was met by an unresponsive Fed. This breakdown in the typical reaction of the Fed can be attributed to the unique nature of the pandemic shock, the Fed’s updated policy strategy, and a misreading of the inflation surge as transitory. The result is that the Fed, as it now acknowledges, is badly behind the curve and “expeditiously” moving ahead with 50 basis point hikes to both keep inflation expectations in check and protect its reputation.At the same time, however, inflation is now decelerating and the pace of decline in the unemployment rate is slowing. Had the Fed followed the historical pattern in the chart above, the fed funds rate would be around 2.5 percent now and the Fed would be able to start pulling back on rate hikes as the economy cooled. Instead, the Fed looks poised to hike to around 3.5 percent into next year, when inflation will have slowed further and the unemployment rate will have largely leveled off. With the passage of time as the Fed continues to hike, we will likely find ourselves experiencing the effects of increasingly restrictive monetary policy.Well before it reaches this terminal rate the Fed will increase the risk of overshooting, causing a financial accident, and starting a recession. Such an asynchronously tight monetary stance should exacerbate the cyclical slowing of the economy and cause a recession as early as the second half of next year. Given this collision course between the Fed and the cooling economy, long term interest rates are likely near a peak.As Scrooge asked in Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol, “Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of the things that May be only?” Only time will tell. And as Guggenheim's CIO, Scott Minerd, noted on CNBC earlier, don't expect The Fed to protect your downside in the market either... "we are going to be meaningfully lower in stocks by the end of the year because The Fed has made it clear that they do not have a put on the stock market."
The Fed Has Crossed The "Hard Landing" Rubicon So How High Will It Hike? One Bank Crunches The Numbers -- One month ago, a SocGen strategist calculated something remarkable: at a time when the Fed is warning of multiple 50bps hikes in coming FOMC meetings and Powell is threatening to take fed funds above neutral - somewhere in the great unknown zone between 2.0% and 4.5% - and even the gradually fading market consensus still expects just under 8 hikes this cycle...... quant Solomon Tadesse calculated that according to his analysis, if the Fed i focused on preserving growth (at the expense of higher inflation), then Fed Funds will peak at just around 1.0%, which combined with a QT programme to the tune of about $1.8tn, means the Fed will very soon be forced to reverse.Furthermore, as Tadesse has since pointed out, with the Fed’s recent bold 50bp hike, "there does not seem much room left for manoeuvring for the desired soft-landing." He then echoes what we have been saying in recent weeks, namely that the "type of week-long market meltdown witnessed since the recent hike often precedes a policy about-face in line with our projection."Ok but what if having decided to push the US into a recession, growth be damned, the Fed is now focusing only and entirely on inflation? After all, current rates are far, far below the prevailing CPI which is around 8%, and while many argue whether CPI has peaked, there is a significant possibility CPI could hit double digits in the coming months.This is the question that Tadesse addresses in his latest must-read note (available to pro subs in the usual place), in which he writes that "an inflation-fighting impulse is currently in the air, begging the question of what it could take to stamp out the current trend for good, even at the cost of a hard landing."According to the SocGen quant, given the rising inflation prints and accompanying political pressure, if the pro-growth tightening threshold is breached - which it likely will be as soon as the next FOMC meeting, making a hard landing inevitable, and unleashing the Fed in favor of a single-minded inflation-fighting policy stance, Tadesse's analysis suggests that it "could take overall monetary tightening of as much as 9.25% to arrest inflation, with the policy rate going up to 4.5% and the balance coming from QT of about $3.9tn, which would slash the current Fed balance sheet by about half."Here is some more detail from the SocGen quant on this potential "alternative" in which the Fed single-mindedly pursues inflation containment, going Volcker-style with accelerated rate hikes reminiscent of the 1970s and early 1980s, when the average MTE (tightening to easing) ratio was about 1.5x (left-hand chart below).:
"It Was A Mistake" - Bernanke Says Fed's Fear Of 'Shocking' The Market Delayed Tightening Move --With inflation running rampant, unemployment falling, and wages soaring, the Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve waited too long to reverse its ultra-low interest rate policies and a massive bond-buying program. This delay has now been called a "mistake" by former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Bernanke spoke with CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin in an interview during Monday's "Squawk Box" show. He told Sorkin, "The question is why did they delay that. ... Why did they delay their response? I think in retrospect, yes, it was a mistake."Inflation has become one of the most severe threats to the economy. Bernanke said, "And I think they [Fed] agree it was a mistake." He explains why the Fed missed the window of opportunity to tighten: "One of the reasons was that they wanted not to shock the market."Jay Powell was on my board during the Taper Tantrum in 2013, which was a very unpleasant experience. He wanted to avoid that kind of thing by giving people as much warning as possible. And so that gradualism was one of several reasons why the Fed didn't respond more quickly to the inflationary pressure in the middle of 2021," he said. Powell, the defender of financial markets, got it wrong last year when inflation began to run higher than the Fed's 2% target, though Fed members widely said inflation would be "transitory." What's disturbing is inflation was not transitory, and the monetary wonks operating the printing presses clearly didn't understand. Their inability to tighten last summer has caused the Fed to be way behind the curve, hence today's oversized rate hikes. So how behind the curve is the Powell-led Fed? The Taylor Rule suggests Fed Funds should be over 11%, not around 1%. The Taylor rule is a formula that can predict or guide how central banks should alter interest rates due to changes in the economy. Right now, Taylor's rule recommends that the Federal Reserve should continue to raise interest rates. "There's a lot of support for the fact that the Fed is tightening now, even though obviously we see the effects in markets," Bernanke said. "You know, we'll see the effects in house prices, etc." Meanwhile, the central bank is attempting to achieve a proverbial "soft landing," though there's an increasing risk of a recession in the not-too-distant future. Powell and gang missed the window of opportunity to tighten policy rates and is now considered, well, in one former central banker's eyes, a "mistake." And with policy errors, hard landings are usually seen. Watch the full interview here.
Jerome Powell’s Fed in Two Frightening Charts - By Pam and Russ Martens ~ The March 15-16 minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve show that there was agreement, given “elevated inflation and tight labor market conditions,” that the Fed needed to take decisive action to shrink its balance sheet, with FOMC participants reaffirming “that the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings should be reduced over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments….” But Jerome Powell’s Fed did not actually announce a specific plan to shrink its balance sheet until May 4 and stated at that time that the plan would not go into effect until June 1 – almost three months after the FOMC indicated that the Fed should take decisive action. As a result of this stalling, the Fed’s balance sheet has remained at the $9 trillion level since its March 15-16 FOMC meeting, as inflation has continued to soar. According to the Fed’s own H.4.1 weekly release of the details of its balance sheet, the Fed’s balance sheet stood at $9 trillion on March 16 and at $8.991 trillion on its last reporting date of May 11. At Powell’s press conference on May 4, Michael McKee of Bloomberg Television and Radio specifically asked Powell “why did you decide to wait until June 1st to begin letting securities roll off and not start immediately in the middle of this month, say?” Powell responded with this evasive answer: “So why June 1, it was just ‘pick a date,’ you know, and that happens to be, that happened to be the date that we picked. It was nothing magic about it.” Faced with the highest inflation readings in 40 years, the Fed’s stalling action until June 1 sent a message to markets that the Fed was falling even further behind on its mandate to control inflation. The Dow dropped 1,063 points the next day, a decline of 3.1 percent while the Nasdaq plunged 5 percent. The largest components of the Fed’s balance sheet are the short and intermediate term U.S. Treasury bills and notes and long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds it has been buying up from Wall Street since it first launched its so-called “Quantitative Easing” or QE program following the Wall Street crash of 2008. To a smaller extent, QE also includes the Fed buying up bundles of federal-agency-backed mortgages (Mortgage Backed Securities, or MBS). As of last Wednesday’s H.4.1 release, the Fed’s balance sheet included $8.48 trillion in securities, of which Treasuries accounted for $5.766 trillion; MBS accounted for $2.7 trillion; and federal agency debt securities accounting for the balance. The bulk of the Fed’s balance sheet resides at just one of its 12 regional Fed banks — the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, known simply on Wall Street as the New York Fed. Conveniently, the New York Fed is the only regional Fed bank to have its own trading floors with speed dials to Wall Street’s megabanks — one in New York and one stealthily added in Chicago near the futures exchange. (See The New York Fed Has Quietly Staffed Up a Second Trading Floor Near the S&P 500 Futures Market in Chicago.) Also, conveniently, the New York Fed oversaw the bulk of the Fed’s trillions of dollars in bailout programs to Wall Street during and after the 2008 financial crash as well as the trillions the Fed made in cumulative repo loans in 2019 and 2020. (Many trillions of dollars of those repo loans occurred in 2019, months before there was any pandemic.) By the Fed buying up trillions of dollars in debt instruments from Wall Street, it is creating artificial demand that would not otherwise exist. This, in turn, pushes down interest rates and creates an artificial level of interest rates that would not otherwise exist. On September 23 of last year, the Federal Reserve released its Z.1 statistical release on the Financial Accounts of the United States. The section on “Corporate Equities” showed that at the end of 2019, the market value of all publicly-traded equities (stocks) in the United States had reached $38.47 trillion. By June 30, 2021, despite an ongoing pandemic, the market value of all publicly-traded stocks had surged to $54.768 trillion, an increase of 42 percent. (See page 130, Line 29 at this link.) At $54.768 trillion, the U.S. stock market was larger than the combined GDP of the United States, China, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the U.K., according to GDP data from the World Bank.The source of the leverage that is propping up this massive bubble is hiding out in the Wall Street megabanks which Congress allows to function as both trading casinos as well as the owners of the largest federally-insured commercial banks in the United States. As the chart below indicates, the assets of all commercial banks in the U.S. stood at $12 trillion on June 3, 2009. It took eight years, to June 7, 2017, for those assets to grow by 35 percent and reach $16.2 trillion. But under Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, assets at commercial banks have exploded in just the past two and a quarter years, mushrooming from $17.8 trillion on January 22, 2020 to $22.6 trillion on May 4, 2022.
Fed nominee Barr 'well positioned' for confirmation after Senate hearing | American Banker— Michael Barr, the Biden administration’s second pick to become the Federal Reserve’s chief banking regulator, faced little resistance from Senate Banking Republicans at a confirmation hearing Thursday.Barr, an administrator at the University of Michigan and a former Treasury Department official, managed to avoid the fierce scrutiny that ultimately tanked the nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin, the White House’s initial pick for the Fed’s vice chair for supervision. Michael Barr, an administrator at the University of Michigan and a former Treasury official, said the Federal Reserve had a limited scope for addressing climate change through regulatory policy.During the two-hour hearing, committee members sought to pin down Barr’s views on the role of climate change in setting prudential regulation and the independence of the Fed. Republicans also used the hearing to press Barr about perceived shortcomings of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which he played a key role in designing after the global financial crisis.
68% Of CEOs Say Fed Policy Is About To Trigger A Recession - No matter how many Tom Lees and Marko Kolanovics CNBC wants to roll out to try and play things off like everything is fine, most CEOs - who spend their time in the real world instead of "analyzing" it - are bracing for a recession. In fact, "CEO confidence has tumbled to the weakest level since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic", a new report from CNN, citing The Conference Board, said this week.CEO confidence is now negative for the first time during the economic expansion, the report notes. The C suite is bracing for a turndown as a result of Fed policy, the report notes. 68% of CEOs expect that Fed policy is going to trigger a recession, according to a survey fielded between April 25 and May 9 which looked at the responses of 133 CEOs. Despite this, only 11% of these CEOs are predicting a "hard landing". Most CEOs said they expect a "very short, mild" recession. We'll make sure to keep an eye on this figure as we progress further into 2022, especially if the Fed decides to hold course. Dana Peterson, The Conference Board's chief economist, said: "Businesses are being challenged on so many fronts right now and CEOs have elevated expectations of a recession." 61% of CEOs surveyed also said that economic conditions have worsened over the last 6 months. This compares to 35% who said the same in Q1. Only 14% of CEOs said they see "improving economic conditions". Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, commented: "Recessionary-concerns are real." He added that recessions often follow interest rate hikes. Despite this, there are some "economists" who continue to argue that recession isn't necessarily imminent. RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas concluded: "Concerns about an immoderate near term recession are generally overblown. The Fed is attempting to thread the needle while wearing boxing gloves and a mouth guard which reduces its degrees of freedom to act without causing damage to the real economy."
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-May - Menzie Chinn - With the release of industrial production (1.1% m/m vs. 0.5% Bloomberg consensus; mfg 0.8% vs. 0.4% consensus), we have the April reading for another key indicator followed by the NBER BCDC. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (5/2/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.We also had retail and food service sales figures for April released today (0.9% m/m at consensus). Retail and food service sales are not core series followed by the NBER BCDC (at least in previous years), but they can — and are — used to inform views about consumption. I use the relationship in log differences between consumption and CPI-all deflated retail and food services sales to predict April consumption. I also use log differences of retail sales (deflated by PPI finished goods) to predict March and April manufacturing and trade industry sales. This yields the following picture.Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), estimated sales for March and April (light black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (sky blue), estimated consumption for April (light blue_ and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (5/2/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.Bottom line: The US economy appears to continue to grow in April, despite negative q/q official GDP growth in Q1.The m/m growth rates of the extrapolated series and the extrapolating series are shown in Figure 3.Figure 3: Top panel, m/m growth rate of consumption and of total retail and food service sales (deflated using CPI). Bottom panel, m/m growth rate of manufacturing and trade sales and retail sales (deflated using PPI finished goods). Source: Census via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. Note: Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of May 15th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 10.7% from the same day in 2019 89.3% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel has been moving sideways over the last two months, off about 10% from 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through May 12th. Movie ticket sales were at $277 million last week, up about 17% from the median for the week due to strong sales for Dr Strange. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). This data is through May 7th. The occupancy rate was down 6.1% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is at the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage from Todd W Schneider. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 39% of normal. This data is through Friday, May 13th.
Who Bought the Incredibly Spiking US Government Debt, Now $30.4 Trillion in Treasury Securities? By Wolf Richter - The US gross national debt has now reached $30.4 trillion, having spiked by a $7.0 trillion since March 2020. Every one of these Treasury securities had to be bought and is held by some institutional investor, bank, government entity, or individual in the US or globally. The red-hot question is: Who the heck bought and is holding all these Treasury securities? Treasury securities have become more attractive this year as yields have risen across the board, but remain woefully below the rate of CPI inflation. Yields have risen because investors demanded higher yields to buy them. If there isn’t enough demand for Treasury securities, then yields rise until there is enough demand. If yields rise enough, I’m a buyer. Yield solves all demand problems. The Fed, the single largest buyer until early this year, is no longer adding to its holdings. And in June, it will start reducing its holdings, even as the government will issue more debt and someone has to buy it all. So who is holding this Treasury debt in our increasingly iffy times? Foreign holders of Treasuries: $7.61 trillion at the end of Q1, according to the Treasury Department’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, down by $134 billion from the prior quarter, but up by $575 billion from a year ago. About $4.07 trillion of it is held by foreign central banks and government entities; the rest by foreign institutional investors, corporate entities, banks, and individuals. Over the years, the US gross national debt has out-spiked the growing holdings by foreign entities, and at the end of Q1 for 25.1%, squeaking past the prior multi-year low, and down from the 34% range in 2012 through 2015 (dollar = blue line, left scale; % of total US debt = red line, right scale): Japan: $1.23 trillion at the end of March, after a $74 billion plunge during the month. Japan remains the largest foreign creditor of the US, and with that plunge in March is now about back where it had been a year ago. China: $1.04 trillion, whittling down its holdings: Japan and China have been much less important as creditors to the US, as the gross national debt has continued to out-spike their relatively stable holdings. In March, Japan’s share (purple) dropped to 4.1% and China’s share (red) dropped to 3.4%: Most of the 10 biggest foreign holders after Japan & China are tax havens and financial centers, some of them just small countries that cater to global corporations and the elite, including US corporations, that can shelter their capital there in offshore mailbox entities where some of their Treasury holdings are registered. The third largest foreign holder, after Japan and China, is the UK with $635 billion in Treasury securities. This is the financial center of London, the “London Laundromat,” and anyone anywhere could be the beneficial holder of these securities. France and Canada have surged onto the scene recently with massive increases. The top 10 foreign holders behind Japan and China:
UK: $635 billion (+43% year-over-year)
Ireland: $316 billion (+2% year-over-year)
Luxembourg: $301 billion (+6%)
Cayman Islands: $293 billion (+36%)
Switzerland: $274 billion (+8%)
Belgium (home of Euroclear): $265 billion (+12%)
France: $247 billion (+117%)
Taiwan: $251 billion (+3%).
Brazil: $237 billion (-7%)
Canada: $222 billion (+109%)
Biden’s Curious Talking Point: Lower Deficits Offer Inflation Relief - As Americans deal with the highest inflation in decades, President Biden has declared that combating rising costs is a priority for his administration. Lately, he has cited one policy in particular as an inflation-fighting tool: shrinking the nation’s budget deficit. “Bringing down the deficit is one way to ease inflationary pressures in an economy,” Mr. Biden said this month. “We reduce federal borrowing and we help combat inflation.” The federal budget deficit — the gap between what the government spends and the tax revenue it takes in — remains large. But Mr. Biden has pointed out that it shrank by $350 billion during his first year in office and is expected to fall more than $1 trillion by October, the end of this federal budget year. Rather than stemming from any recent budget measures by his administration or Congress, the deficit reduction largely reflects the rise in tax receipts from strong economic growth and the winding down of pandemic-era emergency programs, like expanded unemployment insurance. And for many experts, that — plus the reality that deficits have a complicated relationship with inflation — makes the budget gap a surprising talking point. “It’s probably not something they should be taking credit for,” Dan White, director of government consulting and fiscal policy research at Moody’s Analytics, said of the Biden team’s emphasis on deficit reduction. The expiration of the programs is mostly “not making things worse,” he said. The Biden administration’s March 2021 spending package helped the economic rebound, but it also meant the deficit shrank less than it otherwise would have last year. In fact, the $1.9 trillion relief plan probably added to inflation, because it pumped money into the economy when the labor market was starting to heal and businesses were reopening. But the White House has explained its new emphasis on deficit reduction and fiscal moderation in terms of timing. Administration officials argue that back in March 2021, the world was uncertain, vaccines were only beginning to roll out and spending heavily on support programs was an insurance policy. Now, as the labor market is booming and consumer demand remains high, the administration says it wants to avoid ramping up spending in ways that could feed further inflation. “Supply chains have created challenges in ramping up production as quickly as we were able to support demand,” said Heather Boushey, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. “The point he’s trying to make is that the plan, moving forward, is responsible and is not aimed at adding to demand.” Moody’s Analytics estimates that inflation will be about a percentage point lower this year than it would be had the government continued spending at last year’s levels. But few people, if anyone, expected those programs to continue. And while it is possible to make a rough estimate about how much fading fiscal support is helping with the inflation situation, as Moody’s did, a range of economists have said that it is hard to know how much it matters for inflation with precision.
It’s Now or Never for Congress to Pass a Climate Bill | Sierra Club --Climate hawks in Congress are gearing up for one more shot at passing bold climate-action legislation, and environmental groups say there’s no time to waste, since this legislative season could be Congress’s last best chance to address the climate crisis for years to come. Late last year, Senator Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat with ties to the coal industry, killed President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda when he announced his opposition to the sweeping climate and social safety net package. The bill, which had already passed the House of Representatives, would have invested more than $550 billion in renewable energy, electric vehicles, transmission, and clean energy manufacturing. It also would’ve imposed a fee on methane pollution from oil and gas operations. Since Build Back Better’s demise, Congress has shifted its attention to other issues, including voting rights, inflation, and, more recently, the war in Ukraine and reproductive rights. But in part spurred into action by Russia’s war, which has thrown global energy markets out of whack, Senator Manchin is once again willing to negotiate something—though the specifics seem to shift depending on his mood at any given moment. Characteristically, Manchin wants a lot more government help to boost oil and gas production as well as mining, while also smoothing the way for more pipeline construction. The latest Manchin machinations include an attempt at a bipartisan deal, which would require votes from 10 Republicans to pass. The West Virginia senator has hosted multiple meetings with some key Democrats and some interested Republicans, including Senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, and Mitt Romney of Utah.Climate and environmental groups, however, see the talks as a distraction. And given the fast-approaching midterm elections, they also worry that the bipartisan effort may be a waste of time. “I think that there is not going to be any movement,” Sam Ricketts, a cofounder of the climate policy and advocacy group Evergreen Action, told Sierra. “And I think we will see that, no, there are not going to be 10 Republicans, nor really one or two, who are going to play ball on a bipartisan climate and energy package.” Instead, climate advocates want the focus to shift to the Democrats-only reconciliation process, a parliamentary budgetary procedure that would allow the Democrats to pass climate investments with a simple majority of 50 votes, instead of the filibuster hurdle of 60 votes.
Sierra Club presses Senate Democrats for climate investments - The Sierra Club is poised to launch an ad campaign in nine states as part of an effort to encourage Senate Democrats to take climate-related action by investing in communities facing systemic injustice and economic inequity. The ad campaign will feature digital advertisements on social media in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Washington. The ads specifically call for Democrats such as Sens. Bob Casey (Pa.), Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.), John Hickenlooper (Colo.) and Ron Wyden (Ore.) to “deliver on climate, care, jobs, and justice.” The Sierra Club’s effort comes as the Senate attempts to revive attempts to pass climate-related legislation that stalled out in the 50-50 chamber last year. “Time is running out for the Senate to pass a budget reconciliation package that includes at least $555 billion in investments in climate, care, jobs, and justice,” Sierra Club Legislative Director Melinda Pierce said in a statement. “All this must be accomplished in a way that prioritizes communities of color and low-income communities that are hit hardest by pollution, climate-fueled disasters, and racial injustice. The time is now,” Pierce added. For the Senate’s policy bill to pass, it would require the support of every Democrat. But Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has recently pushed for a bipartisan energy and climate package, which some Democrats say is an effort to sidestep negotiating a broader budget reconciliation package. “We’re running out of time. The calendar is staring us in the face, and I’m concerned we have no time to waste on conversations that are futile,” one Democratic senator said earlier this month. The Sierra Club’s advertising campaign will not run in West Virginia, with the group believing its ads will be more effective in the states it chose to target.
Analysis: How earmarks will affect energy, enviro projects - Congress this year directed billions of dollars in spending toward energy and environment projects through earmarks, and the popularity of the process will likely mean even bigger spending on pet projects for the coming fiscal year. All told, nearly a quarter of the 4,938 earmarks were directed at energy and environmental concerns in the fiscal 2022 omnibus that passed in March, an E&E News analysis found. The aims of the earmarks are as varied as the states represented on Capitol Hill. For instance, top House Energy and Commerce Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington secured $15.6 million in EPA community clean and drinking water grants. Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) received $62.8 million for Army Corps of Engineer projects in his state. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) won $3 million to help the Bureau of Land Management expand access to more than 5,000 acres in the state’s Rio Grande Del Norte National Monument. The rebirth of earmarks — after a decade-long pause — hs proven wildly popular with lawmakers, so much so that the upcoming fiscal 2023 appropriations bills are expected to contain even more spending on more projects. “We’ve worked at it a long time, but we’re proud of them,” said Shelby, the top Senate Republican appropriator who is retiring at the end of this Congress. “They’re meritorious — nothing personal, nothing little. They’re all substantive stuff, and they are very popular in my state.” E&E News tallied the earmarks sprinkled throughout the more than 2,000-page omnibus to determine the top recipients by party and chamber as well for the major energy and environmental spending bills. The data showed some notable trends that could help lawmakers, lobbyists, interest groups, and states and communities as they seek to navigate the new era. The key findings include:
The bulk of the dollars earmarked in the Interior-EPA and Energy-Water spending bills went toward EPA state, tribal and assistance grants (STAG), and Army Corps construction projects, reflecting the bipartisan popularity of steering projects to local communities.
Democrats far outpaced Republicans in receiving earmarks because fewer than half of all GOP lawmakers requested them.
Senate seniority was a major factor in doling out dollars.
In both chambers, lawmakers making joint requests and working across party lines often got the most money.
Receiving earmarks did not guarantee lawmakers would support the legislation. Many Republicans who won earmarks ultimately opposed the omnibus and even criticized it.
How a return to deficit politics helps Biden's climate push -Deficit politics are back. But that development isn’t necessarily a deal-killer for climate policies. President Joe Biden has been on a media blitz recently vowing to tame inflation — particularly by shrinking the federal deficit. Along with other tactics aimed at lowering prices, such as boosting biofuels, Biden is arguing he would do more to reduce the deficit than Republicans would. “Unlike my predecessor, the deficit has gone down both years I’ve been here,” Biden said in a speech last week. “That is not an abstraction. It matters. It matters to families, because reducing the deficit is one of the main ways we can ease inflationary pressures.” That kind of talk makes climate hawks nervous. Transitioning the U.S. economy off fossil fuels promises to be expensive — though, advocates note, it’s cheaper than the storms, famines and other effects of runaway climate change. Biden came into office calling climate change an “existential threat,” and he touted deficit spending as one of the federal government’s most important tools (Climatewire, Dec. 7, 2020). Now, with annual inflation topping 8 percent, Biden has pivoted to calling inflation his “top domestic priority.” Biden says his plan emphasizes “reducing the deficit by historic levels.” That might seem like rough headwinds for Democrats’ climate plans, which at roughly $550 billion constituted the biggest single pot of money in Biden’s stalled $1.7 trillion “Build Back Better” legislation. But, some policy watchers say, Biden’s inflation focus likely won’t undercut high-dollar climate proposals. Instead, they say, it actually might be the best gambit to pass them. “Build Back Better” was killed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who centered his opposition on the deficit and inflation. Reframing Biden’s agenda as disinflationary, the thinking goes, could be the key to getting Manchin’s vote in a 50-50 Senate.
Ukraine Alone Makes Biden The Worst US President In A Long Time - Caitlin Johnstone - Antiwar libertarian hero Scott Horton has a viral tweet going around which reads simply, “Biden’s refusal to attempt to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine is the greatest scandal in American political history.” Kind of smacks you in the face, doesn’t it? I’ve never seen anyone put it quite like that before, but if you think about it, how could it not be true? It’s just a simple fact that the Biden administration is actually hindering diplomatic efforts to negotiate an end to this war, and that it has refused to provide Ukraine with any kind of diplomatic negotiating power regarding the possible rollback of sanctions and other US measures to help secure peace. Washington’s top diplomats have consistently been conspicuously absent from any kind of dialogue with their counterparts in Moscow. Statements from the administration in fact indicate that they expect this war to drag on for a long time, making it abundantly clear that a swift end to minimize the death and destruction is not just uninteresting but undesirable for the US empire. Ukrainian media report that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Zelensky on behalf of NATO powers that “even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not.” And this isn’t just another war. This is a proxy war being waged by one of the world’s two top nuclear forces against the world’s other top nuclear force. This is more serious than Iraq. It is more serious than Vietnam. It is more serious than any US war that has happened in the lifetime of anyone likely to be reading these words, because Russia has increasingly valid reasons to believe its very existence as a nation is being threatened. This is therefore a war that could very easily result in the death of everyone on earth. The US Secretary of “Defense” has openly said that America’s goal is to “weaken” Russia in this war. Biden himself has made statements which can only be interpreted as calls for regime change in Moscow. US officials have been leaking to the press claims that US intelligence has directly facilitated the killing of Russian generals and the sinking of a Russian war ship. The imperial political/media class are not even denying that this is a US proxy war anymore. In an alarmingly rapid pivot from the mass media’s earlier position that calling this a proxy war is merely an “accusation” promoted solely by Russia, we’re now seeing the use of that term becoming more and more common in authorized news outlets. The New Yorker came right out and declared that the US is in “a full proxy war with Russia” the other day, and US congressman Seth Moulton recently told Fox News that the US is at war with Russia through a proxy.
Ocasio-Cortez, Sanders and the DSA vote for war - In the history of the socialist movement, parties and political figures are defined above all by their attitude to imperialist war. On June 16, 1918, Socialist Party leader Eugene V. Debs was arrested and jailed for a speech opposing the US government’s involvement in World War I. Speaking to a large crowd in a park in Canton, Ohio, Debs called the war an imperialist war and denounced the Democratic administration of Woodrow Wilson and the capitalist governments of Europe for waging it. On May 10, every single Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)-backed member of Congress voted to approve Joe Biden’s request for $40 billion in military and financial aid for Ukraine. Bernie Sanders, who once published a recording of himself reading Debs’ Canton speech, voted “yes” for war credits and said, “We should always have a debate, but the problem is that Ukraine is in the middle of a very intense war right now. I think every day counts, and I think we have to respond as strongly and vigorously as we can.” Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, who knows nothing about the history of socialism, voted “yes” too. Hoping that people either would not notice or would quickly forget her vote, she refused to issue as much as a press release or tweet explaining her vote. The other DSA members of congress, Rashida Tlaib, Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman, all voted “yes” as well. The vote marks a crossing of a political Rubicon. It is an endorsement of the US/NATO war against Russia. It takes money out of the hands of working people confronting inflation and poverty at home and directs it toward death and destruction abroad. It dramatically increases the possibility of a world war between nuclear powers.Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders have risen to national prominence by promoting themselves as representatives of the “anti-war” and “left-wing” sentiments of masses of people. The DSA similarly calls itself the “largest socialist organization in America.” But their pro-imperialist actions speak louder than words. They are nothing more than petty-bourgeois lackeys of the most ruthless imperialist power in the world.
After delay, Senate sends $40 billion Ukraine aid package to Biden - — After a weeklong delay, the Senate voted Thursday to pass a $40 billion military, economic and humanitarian aid package for Ukraine as its bloody war with Russia neared the three-month mark.The vote was 86-11, with Republicans casting all of the no votes. The Senate also voted to confirm Bridget Brink to be the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine on Wednesday night, shortly after the State Department announced it was reopening its embassy in Kyiv. Democratic and Republican leaders had hoped to quickly take up the House-passed package last week, but Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., objected and dragged out the process over a dispute about oversight of the spending. Thursday’s big bipartisan vote, which sends the aid package to President Joe Biden’s desk for his signature, is an unmistakable signal to Kyiv that the U.S. remains firmly in its corner. Paul’s stall tactics miffed many colleagues who had warned that Ukraine is dangerously close to running out of weapons, food and other supplies. The aid package “is extremely critical; it was critical last week,” said Senate Appropriations Chairman Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., who added: “And I cannot believe that some on the Republican side have held it up. Every day it’s delayed, it impacts the war effort.”
McConnell on ‘isolationist’ Rand Paul opposing Ukraine aid: ‘A tiny percentage’ of Senate GOP -Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) said his Kentucky colleague Sen. Rand Paul (R), who vocally opposed the $40 billion Ukraine aid package, represented “a tiny percentage” of Senate Republicans.“My colleague, Senator Paul, has always been basically an isolationist. He’s proud of it and believes that’s where America ought to be. That is a tiny percentage of the Senate Republican Conference,” McConnell told Fox News’ Bret Baier on Thursday.“There’s always been a strand of isolationism in our party, but it’s not anywhere near the dominant view, which was expressed in the vote that we had today and will be expressed again when we vote on the admission of Finland and Sweden into NATO,” he added.Paul was among 11 GOP senators who voted against the $40 billion aid package for Ukraine earlier Thursday. The Kentucky Republican last week kept the chamber from quickly advancing the legislation after it passed the House earlier this month.“We only had 11 votes against the package. I predict we will have even fewer votes opposed to the admission of Finland and Sweden into NATO,” McConnell said on Fox, predicting more than two-thirds of the Senate would vote to back Finland and Sweden’s NATO bids.The Ukraine aid package that passed the upper chamber Thursday includes $9 billion to refill stockpiles for weapons sent to Ukraine and close to $9 billion for the Ukrainian government to continue its operations and combat human trafficking, among other provisions.“If Congress really believed giving Ukraine $40B was in our national interest, they could easily pay for it by taxing every income taxpayer $500. My guess is they choose to borrow the $ bc Americans might just decide they need the $500 more to pay for gas,” Paul tweeted Thursday morning. Ten GOP senators joined Paul in voting against the aid package: Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.), John Boozman (Ark.), Mike Braun (Ind.), Mike Crapo (Idaho), Bill Hagerty (Tenn.), Josh Hawley (Mo.), Mike Lee (Utah), Cynthia Lummis (Wyo.), Roger Marshall (Kan.) and Tommy Tuberville (Ala.).
Here are the 11 GOP senators who voted against the Ukraine aid bill - A $40 billion Ukraine aid package passed the Senate on Tuesday with relative ease despite opposition from 11 Republicans. The package that passed 86-11 will give Ukraine another round of military and humanitarian assistance as the war with Russia drags on. Despite support from Democratic and GOP leadership, 11 Republicans broke from their party and voted against the aid. The conservative effort to stop the bill first began last week when the House sent the legislation to the Senate, and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) objected to the measure. Paul delayed the passage of the bill by a week because he wanted language in the legislation that would have created an inspector general role to oversee Ukraine’s funds. By the time the final vote came, 10 other Republicans joined Paul in opposing the measure. “If Congress really believed giving Ukraine $40B was in our national interest, they could easily pay for it by taxing every income taxpayer $500,” Paul tweeted Tuesday. “My guess is they choose to borrow the $ bc Americans might just decide they need the $500 more to pay for gas.” Republican Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.) tweeted Monday he was against the bill because it did not serve “American interests.” “It neglects priorities at home (the border), allows Europe to freeload, short changes critical interests abroad and comes w/ no meaningful oversight,” Hawley said. Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) emphasized in his statement that although he supports Ukraine’s efforts against Russia, he can’t support a spending bill this large with issues including “inflation” and “gas prices” in the U.S. “I can’t support $40 billion of new spending unless it’s offset with cuts or taken from already authorized funds, especially when the European Union isn’t matching what we’re doing to end this conflict in their own backyard,” Braun said. Eight other GOP senators voted against the package: Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.), John Boozman (Ark.), Mike Crapo (Idaho), Bill Hagerty (Tenn.), Mike Lee (Utah), Cynthia Lummis (Wyo.), Roger Marshall (Kan.) and Tommy Tuberville (Ala.).
Biden Reverses Course On Plans To Ship Long-Range Rockets To Ukraine - President Joe Biden is resisting demands from Kiev to supply long-range rocket launchers to the Ukrainian military, Politico reported, suggesting the White House is concerned the weapons could be used for strikes inside Russia.Ukrainian officials have requested increasingly advanced weaponry from Washington in recent months – even before Moscow’s invasion commenced earlier this year – and are currently urging the US government to send M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), among other hardware.While Biden was reportedly willing to consider the request during a trip to Germany last month, where dozens of countries met to discuss aid for Ukraine, a congressional staffer told Politico the plan is not moving forward. "There was momentum on it at Ramstein, but that seems to have cooled," they said, adding that "There’s definitely a frustration building" among officials in Kiev over a perceived reluctance to send heavier arms. The staffer did not offer a reason for the change of heart, but according to three other sources cited by the outlet, Kiev believes the White House is "holding back over worries the weapon could be used to launch strikes inside Russia, thereby expanding and prolonging the conflict."Though the war raging in Eastern Europe has largely been confined to Ukrainian territory and separatist-controlled areas in the Donbass region, a number of mysterious blasts have erupted on Russian soil over the last month, including in the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions bordering Ukraine. Kiev has stopped short of taking credit for the apparent attacks, but US officials have confirmed that Ukrainian forces were behind at least one of the incidents.Depending on the munitions used, the M270 MLRS has a range of between 20 and 40 miles, though more advanced rockets can travel up to 100 miles, potentially putting them far beyond the range of the American M-777 Howitzers supplied to Ukraine in recent weeks. Even with special rocket-assisted rounds, the latter artillery pieces have a maximum range of just over 18 miles. The M270 is also a self-propelled platform and was specifically designed to evade Russian artillery strikes, capable of rapidly firing up to 12 rockets before moving to a new position.
George W. Bush mistakenly condemned Putin's 'brutal, unjustified invasion of Iraq' instead of Ukraine, then blamed the slip-up on age -- Former US President George W. Bush mistakenly denounced the "brutal, unjustified invasion of Iraq" at an event on Wednesday as he was offering a critique of Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.The slip-up occurred during an event on election integrity at the George W. Bush Presidential Center in Dallas and was first reported by the Dallas Morning News."In contrast, Russian elections are rigged. Political opponents are imprisoned or otherwise eliminated from participating in the political process," Bush told the crowd. "The result is the absence of checks and balances in Russia and the decision of one man to launch a wholly unjustified and brutal invasion of Iraq."
Fiona Hill says Putin ‘had to keep explaining things’ to Trump -Former Trump White House national security official Fiona Hill said Russian President Vladimir Putin had “to explain everything to all the time” to former President Trump. “He had to keep explaining things, and Putin doesn’t like to do that,” Hill said this week, speaking at a Chicago Council on Global Affairs event in remarks reported by Insider. Hill added that Putin intentionally chose to invade Ukraine during President Biden’s tenure in the White House. “He thought that somebody like Biden, who’s a transatlanticist, who knows all about NATO, who actually knows where Ukraine is, and actually knows something about the history, and is very steeped in international affairs, would be the right person to engage with as opposed to somebody that you have to explain everything to all the time, honestly,” the former national security official added. Hill also said Putin frequently would become frustrated with Trump over the former president’s lack of knowledge on geopolitical issues. “You could see that he got frustrated many times with President Trump,” Hill said. “Even though he loves to be able to spin his own version of events, he wants to have predictability in the person that he’s engaging with.”
China warns of dangerous situation developing ahead of Biden Asia trip **China warned the U.S. that President Biden’s visit to East Asia this week could put their relations in “serious jeopardy” if officials play the “Taiwan card” during the trip. In a phone call with national security adviser Jake Sullivan, China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi warned the U.S. against speaking out on the independent sovereignty of Taiwan, a self-ruling democratic island in the Indo-Pacific that China claims is historically part of the mainland and should be under Beijing’s control. “If the U.S. side persists in playing the ‘Taiwan card’ and goes further down the wrong path, it will surely put the situation in serious jeopardy,” Jiechi said, according to a readout.. “We urge the U.S. side to get a clear understanding of the situation, strictly honor its commitments and abide by the one-China principle.” Jiechi further added that China would react accordingly to any move that “undermines the fundamental and long-term interests of countries in the region.” “The Chinese side will take firm actions to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests. We live up to our words,” he said. Biden’s trip to East Asia starts on Friday when he visits South Korea to meet the country’s newly elected president. Then the president plans to travel to Japan, India and Australia to meet with a joint security partnership called the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. China and the U.S. have sparred over the independence of Taiwan. The U.S. does not publicly support the nation’s independence, instead choosing to respect China’s position, but it has grown increasingly warmer to Taiwan. Last year, the U.S. invited Taiwan to a democracy summit, which Beijing slammed as the U.S. advancing its own “geopolitical objectives.” After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s increasingly hostile stance on Taiwan — and fears of a potential invasion of the island nation — has come into larger focus. During a press briefing on Wednesday, when asked if Biden would send a cautionary message to China, Sullivan said the U.S. was putting out an “affirmative vision of what the world can look like if the democracies and open societies of the world stand together.”
Pentagon-Funded Think Tank Simulates War With China On NBC – Caitlin Johnstone- NBC’s Meet the Press just aired an absolutely freakish segment in which the influential narrative management firm Center for a New American Security (CNAS) ran war games simulating a direct US hot war with China.CNAS is funded by the Pentagon and by military-industrial complex corporations Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin, as well as the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, which as Antiwar’s Dave DeCamp notes is the de facto Taiwanese embassy in the US.The war game simulates a conflict over Taiwan which we are informed is set in the year 2027, in which China launches strikes on the US military in order to open the way to an invasion of the island. We are not told why there needs to be a specific year inserted into mainstream American consciousness about when we can expect such a conflict, but then we are also not told why NBC is platforming a war machine think tank’s simulation of a military conflict with China at all.It happens that the Center for a New American Security was the home of the man assigned by the Biden administration to lead the Pentagon task force responsible for re-evaluating the administration’s posture toward China. That man, Ely Ratner, is on record saying that the Trump administration was insufficiently hawkish toward China. Ratner is now the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs in the Biden administration.It also happens that the Center for a New American Security has openly boasted about the great many of its other “experts and alumni” who have assumed senior leadership positions within the Biden administration.It also happens that CNAS co-founder Michele Flournoy, who appeared in the Meet the Press war games segment and was at one time a heavy favorite to become Biden’s Pentagon chief, wrote aForeign Affairs op-ed in 2020 arguing that the US needed to develop “the capability to credibly threaten to sink all of China’s military vessels, submarines, and merchant ships in the South China Sea within 72 hours.”It also happens that CNAS CEO Richard Fontaine has been featured all over the mass media pushing empire narratives about Russia and China, telling Bloomberg just the other day that the war in Ukraine could serve the empire’s long-term interests against China. “The war in Ukraine could end up being bad for the pivot in the short-term, but good in the long-term,” Fontaine said. “If Russia emerges from this conflict as a weakened version of itself and Germany makes good on its defense spending pledges, both trends could allow the US to focus more on the Indo-Pacific in the long run.”
Manufacturers weigh in as Congress negotiates China competition bill -As Congress begins formal negotiations to compromise on the details of legislation aimed at boosting the country's ability to compete with China, American manufacturers have provided their two cents on the matter.The National Association of Manufacturers sent a letter to congressional leadership Thursday as dozens of lawmakers convened for a "conference committee" to work out how to bridge the gap between the chambers' two separate bills: the Senate's United States Innovation and Competition Act and the House's America COMPETES Act.The trade association laid out ten priorities that began with praise for the $52 billion insemiconductor manufacturing subsidies included in both pieces of legislation, and support for another $45 billion to create a Manufacturing Security and Resilience Program as proposed in the House legislation to help ease supply chain woes.Manufacturers also expressed support for the Ocean Shipping Reform Act aimed at increasing efficiency at U.S. ports, and for provisions that prevent counterfeiting of goods, writing that "counterfeiting, particularly from China, hits manufacturers of all shapes and sizes, but is especially devastating for small and medium-sized manufacturers fighting to protect their core products."The NAM also called on Congress to reauthorize the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill will "full retroactivity back to Jan. 1, 2021, and without the broad and arbitrary restrictions included in the America COMPETES Act for future MTB cycles." The organization said that since the act expired at the end of 2020, "manufacturers and other businesses have paid more than $500 million in tariffs, or $1.3 million per day, on goods that are not available in the United States, adding inflationary and anti-competitive costs."The manufacturers also appealed to lawmakers to reverse a recent change in the tax code that now requires research and development costs to be amortized over a period of years rather than immediately deducted as the code had allowed since 1954 until this year. "This harmful change in the tax treatment of R&D expenses comes at a time of increasingly fierce global competition for research dollars," the NAM wrote. "Due to this tax change, the U.S. is now just one of two developed countries with an amortization requirement (the other being Belgium). Meanwhile, China—which has made no secret of its plan to become the world leader in advanced manufacturing—has increased its super deduction for R&D expenses to an extra 100% of eligible R&D expenses in addition to actual R&D expenses incurred."
US Congress: Rashida Tlaib introduces Nakba resolution – US Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib has said she introduced a resolution to recognise the Palestinian Nakba, a term used to describe the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in the lead-up to the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948. Tlaib said she introduced the resolution in the US House of Representatives on Monday, a day after Palestinians marked the Nakba’s 74th anniversary. “The Nakba is well-documented and continues to play out today,” Tlaib, who is of Palestinian descent, wrote on Twitter. “We must acknowledge that the humanity of Palestinians is being denied when folks refuse to acknowledge the war crimes and human rights violations in apartheid Israel.”The Democratic congresswoman said the resolution is cosponsored by her fellow progressives Betty McCollum, Marie Newman, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.Although it is unlikely to pass in an overwhelmingly pro-Israel House, Palestinian rights advocates were quick to hail the measure as “historic”.The Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU), a think tank that supports Palestinian rights, thanked Tlaib for “giving voice to this reality, and highlighting the pain and injustice Palestinians have suffered”.
Biden sends US troops back into Somalia The Biden administration has ordered the redeployment of 450 US soldiers to Somalia at the request of the Pentagon. Government officials state the decision is aimed at countering the advances of the Islamist group al-Shabab, which controls much of the countryside in southern and central Somalia. Biden’s decision is a reversal of a Trump administration order to remove 700 US soldiers from the country and deploy them to neighboring countries in January 2021. Trump portrayed the action as part of his campaign promise to roll back US involvement in “forever wars,” though US troops continued to conduct military activities inside of Somalia from their new bases in neighboring Kenya and Djibouti. The stated goal of the redeployment is to target a dozen leaders of al-Shabab, which is considered a terrorist organization by the US government, and to “maximize the safety and effectiveness of our forces and enable them to provide more efficient support to our partners,” according to Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the National Security Council in an interview with the New York Times. Al-Shabab has been engaged in military confrontations with the central Somali government for over 15 years and has been the target of repeated US military operations and airstrikes. Having consolidated control over large parts of the country, the organization is believed to have 5,000 to 10,000 armed fighters and close ties to Al Qaeda. Several deadly bombings have been linked to the group, including a truck bombing in the capital Mogadishu in 2017 that killed at least 587 people. Capitalizing on the violent tactics and Islamist ideology of al-Shabab and other groups, the United States has used the threat of terrorism to justify military involvement in the impoverished East African country for 30 years. According to CNN, a senior Biden administration official argued that al-Shabab had the “intent and capability to target Americans.” However, it should be noted such concern for the safety of American citizens was not shown to the Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, a dual US and Palestinian citizen assassinated by Israeli forces last week.
House Democrats delay, look to beef up gouging bill - House Democrats expected yesterday to advance legislation against alleged energy price gouging, but instead decided to make changes to strengthen it.The Rules Committee took up H.R. 7688, from Reps. Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) and Katie Porter (D-Calif.), to give the Federal Trade Commission expanded authority to go after energy companies charging excessive or exploitative prices for consumer and home fuel (E&E Daily, May 12).But the panel put off work on the legislation until today. An aide familiar with the negotiations, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, told E&E News there were no problems with the effort.Democrats yesterday said they planned to amend the bill to give the administration even more power to crack down on market manipulation, including doubling fines. The reworked bill would also require new U.S. Energy Information Administration fuel price tracking and reporting.Those new proposals come from S. 4217, introduced last week by Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) and Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) (E&E News PM, May 13).House Energy and Commerce Chair Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) told the Rules Committee, “These provisions are intended to strengthen government oversight of the fuel markets and enhance the FTC authority to go after market manipulators.”The changes mean the Senate may move to take up the House bill. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has promised a vote on price gouging, even if Republicans are likely to block such legislation that doesn’t include increased fossil fuel production.
House passes gasoline price-gouging bill -The House voted Thursday to pass Democrats’ bill aimed at combating “price gouging” on gasoline. The bill passed 217-207, with no Republicans voting for it and four Democrats voting against it: Reps. Stephanie Murphy (Fla.), Lizzie Fletcher (Texas), Kathleen Rice (N.Y.) and Jared Golden(Maine).The legislation is unlikely to gain traction in the Senate, where it would need the support of 10 Republicans to advance, but it’s part of a major messaging push by Democrats as they try to blame the oil industry for skyrocketing prices. Their claims of price gouging have been met with some skepticism from analysts, who have blamed market forces — rather than gouging — for high gasoline prices.Still, Democrats point to record profits posted by major oil companies as evidence of an issue. “What’s infuriating is that this is happening at the same time that gas and oil companies are raking in record profits and then putting those dollars into stock buybacks,” bill sponsor Rep.Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) said in a floor speech on Thursday. The legislation, from Schrier and Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), would outlaw the selling of fuel at an “excessive” price during an energy emergency, though it does not detail any particular price threshold. The bill would also empower the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to pursue legal action if instances of price gouging are discovered.
The four Democrats who bucked party and voted against gas price gouging bill - Four Democrats bucked party lines on Wednesday and voted against a bill that seeks to combat alleged gas price gouging. The legislation, dubbed the Consumer Fuel Price Gouging Prevention Act, passed the House in a 217-207 vote. All of those who voted for the bill were Democrats, and five Republicans did not vote. Reps. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas), Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine) broke from the rest of the Democratic caucus and voted against the measure. The bill aims to ban the sale of fuel at an “excessive” price during times that are considered an energy emergency, but it does not offer particulars on what that price threshold is. It also seeks to give the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) the authority to pursue legal action if it discovers that price gouging is taking place. Many economists and market analysts have said they do not see evidence of price gouging despite Democrats’ claims, arguing that the bill is a political gesture. Democrats have said record profits recently posted by major oil companies as the country deals with high prices is evidence of “gouging.” The legislation now heads to the Senate, where it is unlikely to make it over the hurdle of GOP opposition. Murphy in a statement on Thursday said the price-gouging bill “takes the wrong approach,” claiming that it “could further reduce supply” and worsen the current situation. “At best, this bill is a distraction that won’t actually address the problem. At worst, it could make the problem more severe,” Murphy wrote. She also cited comments from Larry Summers, who served as Treasury secretary during the Clinton administration. Summers said the bill would not reduce inflation, but could “cause and contrive all kinds of shortages.” Fletcher in a statement on Thursday said “this legislation is not the answer.” “The Consumer Fuel Price Gouging Prevention Act would not fix high gasoline prices at the pump, and has the potential to exacerbate the supply shortage our country is facing, leading to even worse outcomes,” she wrote. “For these reasons, I voted no on this legislation today.” Rice told The Hill in a statement that she objected to the bill because she is concerned that “it will not have any meaningful impact for consumers and could ultimately cause a chilling effect when we need to increase supply.” In a statement, Golden argued that the FTC can already investigate companies that engage in anti-consumer behavior, citing President Biden’s previous request that the commission investigate gasoline prices.
Senators unload on Haaland, Granholm over gasoline prices - While Russian President Vladimir Putin has received much of the blame for rising gas prices, Sen. John Barrasso yesterday suggested the finger should instead be pointed at Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. As the national average for a gallon of unleaded gas hit a record high of $4.59 yesterday, lawmakers were working to spin the issue to their political advantage ahead of the summer travel season and the midterm elections. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm got a similar scolding from Republicans. Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the Senate Energy and Natural Resources ranking member, told Haaland during a budget hearing, “It seems like it’s Secretary Haaland’s price hike here, not Putin’s.” The administration’s dramatic reduction in new leasing and its promise to reform the federal oil and gas program in light of climate change has attracted scrutiny from oil and gas supporters. That’s only increased in recent months as Russia’s war against Ukraine, supply chain bottlenecks and global supply constraints roil oil and gas markets. Some of the strongest criticism aimed at Haaland came from her fellow Democrat, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, the committee’s chair, who often breaks with his party on energy and environmental issues. “We are holding this hearing during trying times,” Manchin told Haaland, adding that his frustration had hit “an all-time high” as the U.S. seeks to increase oil production in Iran and Venezuela in an attempt to replace Russian energy “while we are at the same time blocking increased energy production at home.” Manchin told Haaland that he backed the Interior Department’s decision last year to “pause” energy lease sales while the Biden administration conducted a review of the federal oil and gas program. But he added: “Almost a year and a half into the administration, and as the world begs for North American oil and gas, we still have no leases. … I’m sorry to say it has become crystal-clear that the pause is in fact a ban.”
Biden's battling one energy price nightmare. Here comes another. - The Biden administration has been trying for months to dodge the political fallout from high gasoline prices. Now it has an even bigger energy headache to worry about. A new record high for gasoline at $4.40 a gallon drew a fresh spate of headlines this week. But prices for another crucial fossil fuel — natural gas — have also surged to their highest levels in more than a decade, raising costs for everything from home heating and cooking to fertilizer, chemicals and wholesale electricity. While voters’ focus on the rising prices at the pump has given Republicans a cudgel to attack President Joe Biden for what they contend are anti-oil policies, the dynamics around natural gas are more nuanced: Output of the fuel reached a record last year under Biden and is poised to top that mark this year. The United States also ranks as the world’s No. 1 natural gas producer, thanks to a fracking boom that took off during the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations. Even so, U.S. natural gas prices have more than doubled since the start of the year and are forecast to average over $8 per million British thermal units for the rest of 2022, well above the $2 to $4 range the fuel has typically traded inside for the past decade. Prices are forecast to fall next year — if production can grow further. While the price move may not be as immediately visible to the average consumer as the spike in gasoline, it will contribute to the inflation that has dogged Biden for months, mostly by raising costs for food, heating, plastics and utility bills. Homeowners in some states dependent on gas have complained their winter heating costs nearly doubled from the previous year. Unlike oil production, which fell off sharply when the pandemic kept people from driving, natural gas production reached its highest point ever last year and remains strong. But demand has outstripped that extra supply because a late-spring cold snap in some parts of the country and a heat wave in others has kept consumption high during the spring, when it usually declines. On top of that, the U.S. has become the world’s leading exporter of liquefied natural gas — meaning that American consumers are increasingly competing with buyers overseas for their own country’s gas production. Most of these exports go to European allies seeking to lessen their reliance on Russian natural gas in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. And U.S. export capacity is expected to grow further as companies continue to open plants along the Gulf Coast, ensuring that the surge in demand is enough to offset gains in production.
Congress is holding its first UFO hearing in more than 50 years : NPR -Congress is set to hold its first public hearing on UFOs in more than 50 years today, as the House Intelligence committee hears testimony from military officials. The 9 a.m. ET hearing will be livestreamed on the committee's YouTube channel.The session will include testimony from Ronald S. Moultrie, the Pentagon's top intelligence official, and from Scott W. Bray, the deputy director of Naval intelligence.It's the first congressional hearing held on the subject of what are now called "unidentified aerial phenomena" since a push by then-Rep. Gerald Ford led to an Air Force report and hearing in 1969.Congress recently mandated that the military regularly update Congress on UAPs, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a report covering 143 sightings last year."This report is an important first step in cataloging these incidents, but it is just a first step," Sen. Marco Rubio said in a statement at the time."The Defense Department and intelligence community have a lot of work to do before we can actually understand whether these aerial threats present a serious national security concern," Rubio wrote.
Pentagon now reports about 400 UFO encounters: 'We want to know what's out there' - ABC News - Top Pentagon officials told a House panel on Tuesday that there are now close to 400 reports from military personnel of possible encounters with UFOs -- a significant increase from the 144 tracked in a major report released last year by the U.S. intelligence community.A Navy official also said at Tuesday's hearing that investigators are "reasonably confident" the floating pyramid-shaped objects captured on one leaked, widely seen military video were likely drones.That footage, which the military confirmed last year was authentic, hadhelped spur interest in purported UFOs, also referred to as "unidentified aerial phenomena" or UAPs.Indiana Rep. André Carson, the Democratic chairman of the House Intelligence Counterterrorism, Counterintelligence, and Counterproliferation Subcommittee, called Tuesday's hearing, the first in more than 50 years focused on the aerial incidents.UAPs, Carson said, "are a potential national security threat and they need to be treated that way.""For too long the stigma associated with UAPs has gotten in the way of good intelligence analysis," he added. "Pilots avoided reporting or were laughed at when they did."The number of UAP reports has risen to "approximately 400," a significant increase from the 144 between 2004 and 2021 that were tracked in last year's report, according to Scott Bray, the deputy director of Naval Intelligence. Bray told the House panel that the spike was due to a reduction in the stigma associated with stepping forward to report such incidents in the wake of the 2021 report."We've seen an increasing number of unauthorized and or unidentified aircraft or objects and military control training areas and training ranges and other designated airspace," Bray said. "Reports of sightings are frequent and continuous."But Bray believes many of the newly disclosed accounts are actually "historic reports that are narrative-based" from prior incidents that people are only now coming forward with, which leads him to believe there will be fewer new accounts in the future.
Does Congress Have the Constitutional Authority to Codify Roe? -- Even if Congress passes a law codifying the right to abortion, it may not pass a court challenge claiming the Constitution does not give it the authority to enact such a law, writes William H. Hurd, a former solicitor general of Virginia and now a member of Eckert Seamans. He also contends Congress can keep states from preventing women from traveling for abortion. After the leaked draft of Justice Samuel Alito’s abortion decision, supporters of Roe v. Wade are again pressing to “codify” that 1973 decision by writing its basic provisions into a federal statute. The idea is to preserve existing abortion rights nationwide without having to rely upon the U.S. Supreme Court’s interpretation of the Constitution. Efforts to advance one version of such a bill failed in the Senate on May 11. But assuming that such a statute is eventually enacted, it may face court challenges claiming that the U.S. Constitution does not give Congress authority to enact such a law. Supporters of a Roe statute say the authority lies in the 14th Amendment, which allows Congress to enforce the amendment’s liberty guarantees by “appropriate legislation.” But the Supreme Court has previously distinguished between legislation to enforce constitutional rights and legislation to define those rights. The first is a job for Congress, the second is not. Defining constitutional rights is the job of the courts. The Supreme Court made this point in 1997 in City of Boerne v. Flores. At issue was the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA), a law passed by Congress after a Supreme Court decision limiting the First Amendment’s free exercise guarantees. In passing the RFRA, Congress said it was acting under the 14th Amendment to restore the constitutional meaning of free exercise, and that its legislation overrode any conflicting state or federal law. The Supreme Court disagreed. Under the separation of powers, Congress had no authority to interpret constitutional rights differently than the courts. To be sure, Congress could make the RFRA override other federal laws. That was just Congress acting within its own area of authority. But, insofar as the states were concerned, the Supreme Court said that the RFRA was unconstitutional. If Congress passes a Roe statute, it could easily suffer the same fate as the RFRA. It will likely be valid in areas where Congress is the ultimate legislature (e.g., District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and the Pacific island jurisdictions), but probably not in the 50 states.Supporters of a national Roe law may also rely on Congress’ power to regulate interstate commerce. The Supreme Court has defined that power very broadly, but it has also placed limits on that power. In a 2000 case, United States v. Morrison, the Supreme Court invalidated portions of the federal Violence Against Women Act (VAWA).The court said that the VAWA intruded into the states’ traditional police powers and that it could not be justified as a regulation of commerce. The Supreme Court could reach same result if Congress codifies Roe.The court could reason that such a statute intrudes into the states’ traditional police powers (which a decision overturning Roewould effectively restore), and that abortions are not economic activities that substantially affect interstate commerce. To be sure, a state’s abortion laws may affect whether some people choose to migrate to (or from) that state, but the same could be said for many state laws, especially tax and education laws.Nationalizing abortion laws on the theory that uniformity removes an obstacle (or incentive) to interstate migration would open the door to federally mandated uniformity in these other areas as well. The Supreme Court may conclude that basic principles of federalism require keeping that door shut.
Mastercard to cover employees’ Travel for Out-of-State Abortions - MasterCard said it would help pay for workers to travel to access abortions if pregnancy terminations aren’t available in their home state. “We will continue to offer employees access to the same health care, including family planning and reproductive benefits, that is available today wherever they live,” the credit card company said in a memo to staff Wednesday. “In the U.S., this includes a variety of services — from fertility treatments to surrogacy and adoption services, pregnancy prevention including vasectomy coverage and access to contraception, and pregnancy termination.” With the move, Mastercard is joining companies including Citigroup, Apple and Match Group in promising to cover employees’ travel costs incurred to access abortion. While a Supreme Court ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade “is not yet final, we recognize that this is a significant moment and one in which there might be a lot of questions,” Purchase, New York-based Mastercard said in the memo.
Democrats press Biden to go big on forgiving student loan debt -Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and fellow Democrats Elizabeth Warren and Raphael Warnock pitched President Biden to go big with student loan forgiveness during a White House meeting Wednesday. The three Democrats, who have been leading the effort in the Senate, support $50,000 in student debt relief, which is five times what Biden has indicated he would support. “I’m pushing him to do this in a way that we help the Georgia folks I’m running into everyday,” said Warnock, who is running for reelection in a hotly contested race for his Georgia seat.
Black caucus ups pressure on Biden to cancel student debt - The Congressional Black Caucus is requesting a meeting with President Biden to press the case that canceling student-loan debt is a racial equality issue. “This is a crisis created through policy decisions, and we have a responsibility to address it head-on,” Black Caucus Chair Joyce Beatty said in a statement Friday. “Canceling student loan debt is one of the most impactful ways to address ongoing economic and racial inequities plaguing our nation.” The caucus is the latest group of Democratic lawmakers seeking to put pressure on the president to use his executive authority to forgive at least some student loan debt ahead of the midterm elections.
Lawmakers hold moment of silence for 1 million American COVID deaths House Speaker Nancy Pelosi led a bipartisan group of House and Senate lawmakers in a moment of silence Thursday on the steps of the U.S. Capitol after President Biden marked the "tragic milestone" of 1 million COVID-19 deaths in America.
As US daily COVID-19 cases surpass 100,000, White House makes clear that it will take no serious action - The sixth surge of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations in the United States is deepening each day, driven by the highly infectious and immune-resistant Omicron BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 subvariants. According to the BNO|Medriva Newsroom, on Wednesday the US recorded nearly 190,000 new cases, pushing the seven-day average of daily new cases to well over 100,000. According to the New York Times, hospitalizations now stand at 22,875, a 27 percent increase over the last 14 days. The Times reports that cases are now rising in 49 states, and hospitalizations are rising in 45 states, with Puerto Rico and Washington D.C. also seeing a rise in both figures. These official figures are known to be significant undercounts due to the bipartisan, deliberate undermining of testing and data reporting at the federal and state levels since the height of the Omicron BA.1 surge in January 2022. Only four states are now reporting COVID-19 data on a daily basis, while 13 states report once per week or less frequently. Testing has declined across the country and is near the lowest point reached last summer. At the same time, test positivity rates are climbing daily and now stand at an elevated 9.3 percent, indicating that the vast majority of infections are not being detected. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates that the real number of daily new cases is upwards of 437,000 per day. In response to this escalating crisis, which has been steadily growing since early April, the only measure taken by the White House has been to give households the ability to request eight free at-home rapid tests, which only 8.5 million US households have ordered since Tuesday. Isolated from a broader strategy to use every available public health measure to identify and contain all infections, this at-home testing will do nothing to stem the growing tide of infections, hospitalizations and deaths in the US. After a six-week hiatus, on Wednesday morning the White House COVID Response Team held a press briefing, in what amounted to criminals returning to the scene of their crime. The three spokespeople for the Biden administration present at the briefing—Response Team Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha, National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director Dr. Anthony Fauci and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky—are deeply implicated in the homicidal pandemic policies that have killed over 420,000 Americans in the past year. While Jha was not an official member of the Biden administration until last month, he has spent the past year parroting all of its unscientific policies in countless television interviews. Significantly, none of the three even mentioned the tragic milestone of 1 million deaths from COVID-19 in the US, which was finally recognized by Biden last week with perfunctory remarks. The only official commemoration of this milestone involved the lowering of flags to half-staff at government buildings, which concluded on Monday.
‘Failure of an American ideology’: why Covid has an outsized impact on the US - David Rosner continually talks to colleagues who are distraught about the American response to the Covid-19 pandemic. “When you are in a school of public health and a public health environment, people really feel when they are failing,” said Rosner, who studies public health and social history at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. That defeated feeling is compounded by the fact that 1 million people in the US have died from Covid-19 – the highest Covid death rate among large wealthy countries. According to public health experts, the virus’s outsized impact on the US can be attributed in part to underinvestment in long-term care, in primary care and in public health departments. As a result, some people were more vulnerable to Covid and had little connection to – or trust in – the healthcare providers who urged them to socially distance, to wear masks and to get vaccinated. It was a disconnect, they say, that was only exacerbated by misinformation undermining of scientists’ recommendations. “This is more than just a failure of a health system,” said Rosner. “It’s a failure of an American ideology.” The problems in US society and healthcare that lead to the high death toll predate the pandemic. In 2018, the country spent an average of $10,637 on healthcare per person, almost twice as much as other large and wealthy countries, according to data from the Kaiser Family Foundation. And yet, compared with those countries, the US had a significantly lower life expectancy and the worst healthcare quality and access. Almost $4,000 of that additional spending comes from higher payments to hospitals for inpatient and outpatient hospital care. Meanwhile, over the last decade, US spending for state public and local health departments decreased by 16% and 18% respectively. “We have really valued the hospital care to the exclusion of public health and community healthcare in this country,” said Sheila Davis, CEO of the non-profit Partners in Health, which tries to bring healthcare to the world’s poorest places.She argues that reimbursement patterns in the US focus on care delivered at hospitals, “which is the most expensive place to deliver care, with the most expensive providers”, she said.As an alternative, she points to a comprehensive model, “which has excellent hospital care but also has a strong public health department, as well as community care”, such as federally qualified health centers in underserved communities.The one health area where the US spends significantly less than other countries is on long-term care, including nursing homes. In 2018, the country spent $516 a person on long-term care, less than half of what comparable countries spent, according to KFF data.The pandemic exposed these disparities. About three-quarters of Americans who died from Covid were 65 or older – including more than 150,000 nursing home residents, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.A majority – more than two-thirds – of nursing homes in the US are for-profit institutions. They often don’t pay their workers much, are understaffed and have high turnover rates: the mean US wage for nursing assistants and orderlies in 2020 was $14.82 an hour, and the mean turnover rate for nurse staff in 2017 and 2018 was 128%, according to a study.
How Australia Saved Thousands of Lives While Covid Killed a Million Americans - The New York Times— If the United States had the same Covid death rate as Australia, about 900,000 lives would have been saved. The Texas grandmother who made the perfect pumpkin pie might still be baking. The Red Sox-loving husband who ran marathons before Covid might still be cheering at Fenway Park.For many Americans, imagining what might have been will be painful. But especially now, at the milestone of one million deaths in the United States, the nations that did a better job of keeping people alive show what Americans could have done differently and what might still need to change.Many places provide insight. Japan. Kenya. Norway. But Australia offers perhaps the sharpest comparisons with the American experience. Both countries are English-speaking democracies with similar demographic profiles. In Australia and in the United States, the median age is 38. Roughly 86 percent of Australians live in urban areas, compared with 83 percent of Americans.Yet Australia’s Covid death rate sits at one-tenth of America’s, putting the nation of 25 million people (with around 7,500 deaths) near the top of global rankings in the protection of life.So what went right in Australia and wrong in the United States?For the standard slide-show presentation, it looks obvious: Australia restricted travel and personal interaction until vaccinations were widely available, then maximized vaccine uptake, prioritizing people who were most vulnerable before gradually opening up the country again.From one outbreak to another, there were also some mistakes: breakdowns of protocol in nursing homes that led to clusters of deaths; a vaccine rollout hampered by slow purchasing. And with Omicron and eased restrictions, deaths have increased.But Australia’s Covid playbook produced results because of something more easily felt than analyzed at a news conference. Dozens of interviews, along with survey data and scientific studiesfrom around the world, point to a lifesaving trait that Australians displayed from the top of government to the hospital floor, and that Americans have shown they lack: trust, in science and institutions, but especially in one another.When the pandemic began, 76 percent of Australians said they trusted the health care system (compared with around 34 percentof Americans), and 93 percent of Australians reported being able to get support in times of crisis from people living outside their household.In global surveys, Australians were more likely than Americans to agree that “most people can be trusted” — a major factor,researchers found, in getting people to change their behavior for the common good to combat Covid, by reducing their movements, wearing masks and getting vaccinated. Partly because of that compliance, which kept the virus more in check, Australia’s economy has grown faster than America’s through the pandemic.
White House resumes Covid briefings after six-week hiatus as cases rise --The White House resumed its coronavirus briefings on Wednesday after a six-week hiatus as Covid-19 cases rose across the nation, with the new head of Covid response calling on Congress for additional funding to pay for vaccines and treatments. “I want to make sure we have enough resources so that we can buy enough vaccines for every American. I think that is absolutely critical. We do not have the resources to do that right now,” said Ashish Jha, the White House’s new coronavirus response coordinator, who replaced Jeff Zients in March. “So without additional funding from Congress, we will not be able to buy enough vaccines for every American who wants one.” The last White House coronavirus briefing was held on 5 April. Since then, various mask mandates have been lifted across the country, including those on planes, trains and in automobiles. Jha explained that the administration has not stopped fighting the virus, however, noting that it has increased its rapid test kits allocated to each household from four to eight kits. “We know there are multigenerational households, we know that there are households with more than four people and we want to make sure that we make as many tests as we can possibly make available,” he said. Jha also revealed that the administration has seen a dramatic increase in the use of the Covid-19 pill Paxlovid, with demand increasing fourfold in just the previous month. “Our latest estimates are that about 20,000 prescriptions of Paxlovid are being given out every day. I think that is actually a really important reason why, despite the very substantial increase in infections, we have not seen a commensurate increase in deaths,” Jha said. Jha also renewed his pleas for Congress to authorize additional funding so the government could purchase more vaccines and Covid-19 treatments.
Ashley Biden, President Biden’s daughter, and Xavier Becerra, the health secretary, test positive for the virus.Xavier Becerra, the U.S. secretary of health and human services, tested positive for the coronavirus on Wednesday, his department said, hours after the White House announced that Ashley Biden, the daughter of President Biden and the first lady, Jill Biden, had tested positive. Neither is considered a close contact to Mr. Biden, according to the administration. A close contact is someone who has been less than six feet away from an infected person for at least 15 minutes over a 24-hour period, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s guidelines. Ms. Biden, 40, was scheduled to travel with Dr. Biden to Ecuador on Wednesday afternoon but will no longer make the trip with her mother. Earlier this month, Ms. Biden was to accompany Dr. Biden on her trip to Eastern Europe to visit Ukrainian refugees, but on the night of the trip, the White House said that Ms. Biden had been in close contact with someone who tested positive for the coronavirus and would stay behind. Mr. Becerra tested positive for the virus Wednesday morning in Berlin, where he was to participate in meetings for Group of 7 health ministers, Sarah Lovenheim, assistant secretary for public affairs at the Department of Health and Human Services, said in a statement.Mr. Becerra is fully vaccinated and boosted and is experiencing mild symptoms, the statement said. He will continue to work in isolation. Mr. Becerra was last at the White House on Thursday and is not considered a close contact to Mr. Biden, according to Ms. Lovenheim. The White House requires masks and social distancing when officials meet with the president.
Biden Seeks New Unilateral Powers For WHO Chief To Declare Public Health Emergencies - President Joe Biden’s administration is pushing amendments to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) governing regulations to give Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus unilateral authority to declare a public health emergency in any nation based on whatever evidence he chooses.The proposed U.S. amendments were forwarded to the WHO in January for consideration next week by the UN’s 75th World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland.In a Jan. 26 letter to a virtual meeting of WHO’s executive board, Loyce Pace, Assistant Secretary for Global Affairs of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) described “the importance of equity and equitable access to medical countermeasures and the negative impacts of misinformation and disinformation related to the pandemic. We agree that we must all do better.“The United States led an inclusive and transparent process to develop this decision, as we are mindful that updating and modernizing the IHR [International Health Regulations] are critical to ensuring the world is better prepared for and can respond to, the next pandemic.”Among the proposed U.S. amendments, one removes an existing requirement in Section 9 that WHO “consult with and seek to obtain verification” from officials in a nation in which a health crisis is suspected before making any public declarations. The same amendment provides that “WHO may take into account reports from sources other than notifications or consultations” from the nation with the suspected problem.A proposed change to Section 5 would direct WHO to establish “early warning criteria for assessing and progressively updating the national, regional, or global risk posed by an event of unknown causes or sources.”A proposed amendment to Section 10 requires that the WHO, in the event the nation with the suspected problem doesn’t cooperate within 48 hours, shall “when justified by the magnitude of the public health risk, immediately share with other [nations] the information available to it.”
Senate blocks $48 billion aid package for restaurants, other small businesses - The Senate on Thursday blocked a bipartisan bill to provide $48 billion to restaurants, gyms and other small businesses hit particularly hard by the pandemic. Senators voted 52-43 to hold a vote on the bill, falling short of the 60-vote threshold needed to move forward. Just five GOP senators voted for the motion to proceed, with the bill’s opponents citing its impact on the federal deficit and inflation. The vote likely spells doom for the bill, which was crafted by Sens. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and backed by Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) as a way to help struggling small businesses get out of debt accrued during the pandemic. “Well, this was our best shot. Make no mistake about it, we’re disappointed that we weren’t able to get it done,” Cardin told reporters after the vote. “But you know, I’ll always fight for small businesses. I’ll continue to look for ways we can help.” Pressed after the vote on any potential plans for a similar measure in the future, Wicker told The Hill, “You know, time is a very fleeting commodity, so I just don’t know.” Advocates had argued that the additional funds were needed to prevent scores of debt-ridden small businesses from closing down. The bill would have provided $40 billion to a relief fund for struggling restaurants. Democrats provided $28.6 billion to the fund in their COVID-19 relief package, but the federal dollars quickly ran out, with only one out of three applicants receiving aid. “Local restaurants across the country expected help but the Senate couldn’t finish the job,” Erika Polmar, executive director of the Independent Restaurant Coalition, said in a statement. “Neighborhood restaurants nationwide have held out hope for this program, selling their homes, cashing out retirement funds, or taking personal loans in an effort to keep their employees working and their doors open.” The bill earmarked $2 billion for gyms and fitness facilities, $2 billion for live event operators, $2 billion for bus and ferry operators, $1.4 billion for small businesses located near border crossings that were closed during the pandemic and $500 million for minor league sports teams that took a significant financial hit due to COVID-19.
House passes bills to address baby formula shortage - The House on Wednesday passed two bills aimed at addressing a nationwide shortage of infant formula. The main piece of legislation, sponsored by Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), would provide $28 million in emergency funding to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to beef up inspections of formula made at foreign plants and to guard against any future shortages by ensuring the agency is prepared for supply chain disruptions. The shortages have left many parents desperate and lawmakers scrambling to find a solution to put formula back on store shelves. DeLauro’s bill was passed 231-192 in a mainly party-line vote, with 12 Republicans going against the recommendation of party leadership and supporting the legislation. Another passed in a largely bipartisan vote. But even as Democrats praised the vote, it was unclear how quickly the bills would help families and increase the available supply. Senate Republicans also seemed wary of spending new money, so the ultimate fate of the Democrats’ biggest legislative effort to fix the formula shortage was uncertain. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) sent out a memo on Wednesday urging his members to vote “no” on the bill. He said Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) proposed the legislation “in hopes of covering up the administration’s ineptitude by throwing additional money at the FDA with no plan to actually fix the problem, all while failing to hold the FDA accountable.”
Biden administration says government has no role in producing baby formula amidst nationwide shortage - On Wednesday, in response to a catastrophic baby formula shortage in the United States that has forced retailers to ration increasingly dwindling supplies while babies go hungry, President Joe Biden announced that he was invoking the 1950 Defense Production Act (DPA). The DPA allows the US government to order private companies to produce certain materials and ingredients and direct those products to manufacturers in order to stimulate production. In the United States, baby formula production is dominated by four companies—Abbott Laboratories, Mead Johnson, Perrigo and Nestle—which account for nearly 90 percent of the market. Abbott, producer of Similac, accounts for the largest share at 42 percent. In a pre-recorded video statement released Wednesday, Biden attempted to empathize with angry and anxiety-ridden families and tamp down immense social anger. “All across the country,” Biden said, parents are “worried about finding enough infant formula to feed their babies.” He claimed that “as a parent and a grandparent I know just how stressful that is.” Biden did not clarify as to the last time he allegedly purchased baby formula. In any case, his invocation of the DPA will do little to stimulate production or reduce prices for families that have been forced to drive sometimes hundreds of miles and pay exorbitant prices for the privilege of being able to feed their child. Biden’s Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg declared over the weekend on an appearance on CBS that there was no role for the government when it came to producing safe baby formula for its citizens. Responding to the interviewer who said the government had an obligation to ensure the “safety of the plant” Buttigieg responded: “As regulators, yes, but let’s be very clear: this is a capitalist country.” Buttigieg added, “The government does not make baby formula, nor should it. Companies make formula. And one of those companies, a company which, by the way, seems to have 40% market share, messed up and is unable to confirm that a plant—a major plant—is safe and free of contamination.” Buttigieg’s clumsy attempt to blame the company, while defending the system that gives rise to the conditions that allow said company to exist as a monopoly and sell disease-ridden formula, also ignores the fact that as an alleged “regulator” Biden’s FDA played an integral role in keeping the company open and profitable.
Manchin throwing a wrench into Democrats’ push for broader gun control - A racially motivated mass shooting in Buffalo is putting new pressure on Democrats to consider gun-control legislation — but once again centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is emerging as a problem. Manchin says the pared-down Manchin-Toomey proposal to expand background checks, which he helped negotiate in hope of getting support from the National Rifle Association in 2013, is the only reform that has a chance of passing the 50-50 Senate, undercutting Democrats’ hopes of passing broader legislation. While more ambitious proposals to ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines never had a chance of getting 60 votes in the Senate, Democrats hoped to at least unify their caucus behind the background checks legislation passed by the House last year. But Manchin on Tuesday said his old proposal negotiated with the retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey (Pa.) that could expand background checks for commercial transactions is the best option. “I support the Manchin-Toomey, I’ve always done that,” he said. “The Manchin-Toomey is the one. I think if you can’t get that one, then why try to do something just for basically voting for the sake of voting?” He made his comments shortly before President Biden called for new gun-control legislation during nationally televised remarks after speaking with the families of people who were killed or severely injured at a racially motivated mass shooting in Buffalo. “There are certain things we can do. We can keep assault weapons of our streets. We’ve done it before. I did it when I passed the crime bill,” Biden said, referring to the 10-year assault weapons ban included in the 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act. Also speaking in Buffalo, Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-N.Y.) pledged “to work towards finally ridding our streets of weapons of war.” Manchin’s stance means that Democrats won’t likely get his support for the broader background checks bill passed by the House in March of last year and certainly not for more ambitious proposals to ban assault-style rifles or large-capacity ammo magazines. Manchin told reporters in March of last year that he thought the House-passed bill went too far. “What the House passed? Not at all,” he told reporters at the time when asked whether he could support legislation that extended background checks to all sales and transfers of firearms. On Tuesday, Manchin said he hadn’t paid much attention to what the House did. Instead, he reiterated his view that the pared-down Manchin-Toomey proposal, which expanded background checks to include gun shows and Internet sales but exempted transfers between friends and family, is the best way to go. “The best piece of legislation that we’ve ever had, that most people agreed on, was the Manchin-Toomey. We didn’t infringe on anyone’s rights privately,” he said. He added “the biggest problem” that needs to be dealt with is keeping firearms out of the hands of people who are dangerously mentally ill. “The biggest problem that we have — we haven’t done enough with mental illness in this country, and that’s something we should all agree on needs to be absolutely stepped up,” he said.
Congress Is Paralyzed on Guns. Here’s Why Chris Murphy Is Still Hopeful. - It did not take long after the racist gun massacre in Buffalo for a familiar sense of resignation to set in on Capitol Hill about the chance that Congress would be able to muster the will to act on meaningful legislation to combat gun violence in America.In emotional remarks at the scene of the mass shooting on Tuesday, President Biden made no direct call for Congress to take such action. Afterward, he told reporters that he intended to do so, but was frank about his belief that persuading lawmakers to move would be “very difficult.”Around the same time, top Democrats on Capitol Hill were publicly conceding that their paper-thin majority in the Senate meant there was little they would be able to do to prevent the next tragedy.“We’re kind of stuck where we are, for the time being,” said Senator Richard J. Durbin, Democrat of Illinois and the chairman of the Judiciary Committee, playing down the chance that even a modest bill to strengthen background checks for gun purchases could overcome a Republican blockade. Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, shares his colleagues’ skepticism that any legislation can move. But he is also concerned that Democrats may squander a chance to turn the issue of gun safety into a rallying cry for the midterm elections.For a decade, the issue of gun violence has defined Mr. Murphy’s career; the 2012 massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., took place a month after he won his seat.Mr. Murphy spoke to The New York Times from a Senate cloakroom about the chances for legislative action on guns, what Mr. Biden should do and why he thinks Democrats will lose control of Congress if they don’t make combating gun violence the core of their 2022 appeal to voters.The interview has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.
Nina Jankowicz: Expert hired to run DHS' newly created disinformation board resigns - The disinformation expert hired to run the Department of Homeland Security's newly created disinformation board has resigned after the department paused the board.Nina Jankowicz, a disinformation expert with experience working on Ukraine and Russia issues, was tapped to helm the "Disinformation Governance Board" earlier this month. The interagency team was meant to coordinate department activities related to disinformation aimed at the US population and infrastructure.But Jankowicz's appointment quickly drew condemnation from GOP lawmakers and right-wing media, who pointed to her past tweets and statements regarding Hunter Biden's laptop and Christopher Steele, the author of the so-called Steele Dossier. After DHS decided to pause the board, Jankowicz made the decision to resign, she said in a statement released through a spokesperson."After six years dedicated to the study of disinformation and best practices in responding to it, I joined the Department of Homeland Security to be the executive director of the Disinformation Governance Board with the intention of supporting the Department's important work addressing disinformation that affects the homeland," she said."With the Board's work paused and its future uncertain ... I have decided to leave DHS to return to my work in the public sphere. It is deeply disappointing that mischaracterizations of the Board became a distraction from the Department's vital work, and indeed, along with recent events globally and nationally, embodies why it is necessary. I maintain my commitment to building awareness of disinformation's threats and trust the Department will do the same," Jankowicz said.DHS and the White House had previously defended the new initiative, and backed Jankowicz to lead it.In a statement, a DHS spokesperson said Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has asked former DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff and former US Deputy Attorney General Jamie Gorelick to lead a review of the board through the Homeland Security Advisory Council. During that review, the board's work will be paused and it will not convene.
Disinformation Governance Board 'paused' after just 3 weeks - How the Biden administration let right-wing attacks derail its disinformation efforts - On the morning of April 27, the Department of Homeland Security announced the creation of the first Disinformation Governance Board with the stated goal to “coordinate countering misinformation related to homeland security.” The Biden administration tapped Nina Jankowicz, a well-known figure in the field of fighting disinformation and extremism, as the board’s executive director.In naming the 33-year-old Jankowicz to run the newly created board, the administration chose someone with extensive experience in field of disinformation, which has emerged as an urgent and important issue. The author of the books “How to Be a Woman Online” and “How to Lose the Information War,” her career also featured stints at multiple nonpartisan think tanks and nonprofits and included work that focused on strengthening democratic institutions. Within the small community of disinformation researchers, her work was well-regarded.But within hours of news of her appointment, Jankowicz was thrust into the spotlight by the very forces she dedicated her career to combating. The board itself and DHS received criticism for both its somewhat ominous name and scant details of specific mission (Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said it “could have done a better job of communicating what it is and what it isn’t”), but Jankowicz was on the receiving end of the harshest attacks, with her role mischaracterized as she became a primary target on the right-wing Internet. She has been subject to an unrelenting barrage of harassment and abuse while unchecked misrepresentations of her work continue to go viral.Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on May 1 responded to critics calling a new department initiative a violation of free speech. (Video: The Washington Post)Now, just three weeks after its announcement, the Disinformation Governance Board is being “paused,” according to multiple employees at DHS, capping a back-and-forth week of decisions that changed during the course of reporting of this story. On Monday, DHS decided to shut down the board, according to multiple people with knowledge of the situation. By Tuesday morning, Jankowicz had drafted a resignation letter in response to the board’s dissolution.But Tuesday night, Jankowicz was pulled into an urgent call with DHS officials who gave her the choice to stay on, even as the department’s work was put on hold because of the backlash it faced, according to multiple people with knowledge of the call. Working groups within DHS focused on mis-, dis- and mal-information have been suspended. The board could still be shut down pending a review from the Homeland Security Advisory Council. On Wednesday morning, Jankowicz officially resigned from her role within the department.“Nina Jankowicz has been subjected to unjustified and vile personal attacks and physical threats,” a DHS spokesperson told The Post in a statement. “In congressional hearings and in media interviews, the Secretary has repeatedly defended her as eminently qualified and underscored the importance of the Department’s disinformation work, and he will continue to do so.” Jankowicz has not spoken publicly about her position since the day it was announced.
ICE has created a “surveillance dragnet” for accessing the personal information of all US citizens Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), a federal police body under the direction of the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), has built a digital surveillance infrastructure and is accessing the personal information of Americans. This operation has nothing to do with immigration enforcement and has no outside oversight. This is a primary conclusion of a two-year investigation by Georgetown Law’s Center on Privacy and Technology into the contracting and procurement practices of ICE. An extensive report on the investigation was published on May 10 under the title “American Dragnet: Data Driven Deportation in the 21st Century.” In its Executive Summary, the report states, “Since its founding in 2003, ICE has not only been building its own capacity to use surveillance to carry out deportations but has also played a key role in the federal government’s larger push to amass as much information as possible about all of our lives.” The report summary continues, “By reaching into the digital records of state and local governments and buying databases with billions of data points from private companies, ICE has created a surveillance infrastructure that enables it to pull detailed dossiers on nearly anyone, seemingly at any time.” The report states that ICE conducts its work, “without any judicial, legislative or public oversight,” and that the “personal information about the vast majority of people living in the US” is ending up in the hands of immigration officials, “simply because they apply for driver’s licenses; drive on the roads; or sign up with their local utilities to get access to heat, water and electricity.” The Georgetown Law investigation is based on hundreds of Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests and a review of more than 100,000 ICE spending transactions. Nina Wang, a policy associate with the Georgetown center, told the Guardian, “I was alarmed to discover just how easily federal immigration agents can pull detailed records from the most intimate corners of all our lives. In its attempts to target an ever-growing number of people for detention and deportation, ICE has reached into the private homes and lives of almost every person in America.”
You’ve Been Flagged as a Threat: Predictive AI Technology Puts a Target on Your Back - Without having ever knowingly committed a crime or been convicted of one, you and your fellow citizens have likely been assessed for behaviors the government might consider devious, dangerous or concerning; assigned a threat score based on your associations, activities and viewpoints; and catalogued in a government database according to how you should be approached by police and other government agencies based on your particular threat level. Consider the case of Michael Williams, who spent almost a year in jail for a crime he didn’t commit. Williams was behind the wheel when a passing car fired at his vehicle, killing his 25-year-old passenger Safarian Herring, who had hitched a ride. Despite the fact that Williams had no motive, there were no eyewitnesses to the shooting, no gun was found in the car, and Williams himself drove Herring to the hospital, police charged the 65-year-old man with first-degree murder based on ShotSpotter, a gunshot detection program that had picked up a loud bang on its network of surveillance microphones and triangulated the noise to correspond with a noiseless security video showing Williams’ car driving through an intersection. The case was eventually dismissed for lack of evidence. The same company that owns ShotSpotter also owns a predictive policing program that aims to use gunshot detection data to “predict” crime before it happens. Both Presidents Biden and Trump have pushed for greater use of these predictive programs to combat gun violence in communities, despite the fact that found they have not been found to reduce gun violence or increase community safety.The rationale behind this fusion of widespread surveillance, behavior prediction technologies, data mining, precognitive technology, and neighborhood and family snitch programs is purportedly to enable the government takes preemptive steps to combat crime (or whatever the government has chosen to outlaw at any given time).This is precrime, straight out of the realm of dystopian science fiction movies such as Minority Report, which aims to prevent crimes before they happen, but in fact, it’s just another means of getting the citizenry in the government’s crosshairs in order to lock down the nation.Even Social Services is getting in on the action, with computer algorithms attempting to predict which households might be guilty of child abuse and neglect.All it takes is an AI bot flagging a household for potential neglect for a family to be investigated, found guilty and the children placed in foster care.Mind you, potential neglect can include everything from inadequate housing to poor hygiene, but is different from physical or sexual abuse. According to an investigative report by the Associated Press, once incidents of potential neglect are reported to a child protection hotline, the reports are run through a screening process that pulls together “personal data collected from birth, Medicaid, substance abuse, mental health, jail and probation records, among other government data sets.” The algorithm then calculates the child’s potential risk and assigns a score of 1 to 20 to predict the risk that a child will be placed in foster care in the two years after they are investigated. “The higher the number, the greater the risk. Social workers then use their discretion to decide whether to investigate.”Other predictive models being used across the country strive to “assess a child’s risk for death and severe injury, whether children should be placed in foster care and if so, where.”Incredibly, there’s no way for a family to know if AI predictive technology was responsible for their being targeted, investigated and separated from their children. As the AP notes, “Families and their attorneys can never be sure of the algorithm’s role in their lives either because they aren’t allowed to know the scores.” One thing we do know, however, is that the system disproportionately targets poor, black families for intervention, disruption and possibly displacement, because much of the data being used is gleaned from lower income and minority communities.
NAACP targets social media, Fox News in response to Buffalo shooting --The NAACP on Thursday released a response plan to combat white supremacy and hate crimes in wake of the Buffalo supermarket shooting, targeting social media outlets and Fox News. The release of the plan comes a day before Derrick Johnson, the NAACP’s CEO, will meet with Attorney General Merrick Garland to discuss the problem of white supremacy. “We’re focused on preventing the next attack. We need to act. Democracy and white supremacy cannot coexist, and will never coexist. It’s one or the other. We’re fighting for democracy,” Johnson said in a release. The group is calling for the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to aggressively engage social media platforms on the spread of misinformation where hate groups target young people, saying that communities of color provide those social media platforms the revenue they need and those platforms should be required to prove they are acting responsibly. It also heaped scorn on Fox News, which it called “the worst of American broadcasting,” saying the network uses its news division to “sow bigotry and racism, create dissension, spread misinformation, and promote conspiracy theories that continually encourage violence.” It specifically cited the “Tucker Carlson Tonight” program, which has come under criticism in the wake of 10 people being killed at a Buffalo supermarket for amplifying the “Great Replacement” conspiracy theory that white people in the United States are being intentionally replaced by members of the minority group. The suspected shooter in Buffalo, 18-year-old Peyton Gendron, is accused of targeting Black customers and the replacement conspiracy theory is seen as a motivation for the killings.
Supreme Court makes latest slice in McCain-Feingold’s ‘death by 1,000 cuts’ -The Supreme Court on Monday struck down a federal law limiting the amount of money a candidate can collect from donors to repay loans they’ve made to their own campaign, a decision that advocates warned would lead to new opportunities for legalized bribery.The ruling is yet another blow to the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA), better known as McCain-Feingold, the most ambitious — and most-litigated — overhaul to the rules that govern campaign finance since Watergate.The most recent opinion, authored by Chief Justice John Roberts and joined by the high court’s five other conservatives, leaves only a handful of provisions from the law intact.Legal challenges to the measure sponsored by then-Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) began almost immediately after President George W. Bush signed the bill in 2002. And from that beginning, the Supreme Court began chipping away at the measure’s provisions.In 2003, the high court upheld much of the law in the face of a challenge led by now-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), though one provision — banning political contributions from minors — was struck down by the court’s then-five-justice conservative majority. Four years later, Roberts issued his first opinion on the bill, striking down limits on the amount of money corporations and labor unions could spend on advertising mentioning particular candidates within 60 days of a general election.Justice Samuel Alito authored an opinion in 2008 striking down the BCRA’s so-called millionaire’s amendment, which allowed candidates running against wealthy self-funders to raise more money from individual donors.By the time that opinion was issued, the most significant challenge to McCain-Feingold was already making its way through the courts. In 2009, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (FEC); the following year, Justice Anthony Kennedy, joined by four conservative justices, ruled the First Amendment prohibits restrictions on independent expenditures in federal campaigns.That decision led to the rise of the super PAC, outside groups that may raise and spend unlimited money for and against their chosen candidates. In the decade after that ruling, those groups raised about $10.6 billion on American elections, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics; ahead of this year’s midterms, those groups have raised another $1.1 billion.Four years after Citizens United, Roberts again authored an opinion striking down limits on the total amount of money any one individual could contribute to a candidate, a provision initially approved in post-Watergate reforms and revised by the BCRA. The court ruled that Shaun McCutcheon, an Alabama businessman, could donate more than the $117,000 aggregate limit to candidates.Along the way, the high court has removed other barriers imposed by the bill, allowing political parties to raise money to pay for their physical buildings and recounts and allowing candidates to appear at a fundraising event for a super PAC without soliciting funds themselves.The latest case, Cruz v. FEC, targeted another part of the law that limited how much donor money candidates could use to repay their own loans. The case stemmed from Sen. Ted Cruz’s(R-Texas) 2018 reelection bid, when he loaned his campaign $260,000 — $10,000 more than he would have been eligible to recoup. Cruz said he made the loan knowing it would give him standing to challenge the law.The three liberal justices, in a dissent authored by Justice Elena Kagan, said the decision would allow donors to give to a candidate after an election had passed, knowing the outcome and raising the prospects for corruption.
Biden-Bezos feud escalates - A simmering feud between President Biden and Jeff Bezos has spilled into the open after the Amazon founder went on the offensive to criticize the White House’s approach to inflation and taxing wealthy corporations. Biden has frequently used Amazon as a foil as he pushes for higher taxes on the richest Americans and big companies to help fund his economic agenda, and he recently vocally backed unionization efforts at the company. But Bezos’s tweets accusing the president of “misdirection” and of risking worse inflation with his economic proposals, and the White House’s sharp response, marked an escalation in what has become an increasingly adversarial relationship. “It doesn’t require a huge leap to figure out why one of the wealthiest individuals on Earth opposes an economic agenda for the middle class that cuts some of the biggest costs families face, fights inflation for the long haul, and adds to the historic deficit reduction the President is achieving by asking the richest taxpayers and corporations to pay their fair share,” deputy White House press secretary Andrew Bates said in a statement. “It’s also unsurprising that this tweet comes after the President met with labor organizers, including Amazon employees,” Bates added. Bezos shot back on Monday afternoon, accusing the White House of trying to change the topic and again hitting its economic policy. “Remember the Administration tried their best to add another $3.5 TRILLION to federal spending,” Bezos tweeted. “They failed, but if they had succeeded, inflation would be even higher than it is today, and inflation today is at a 40 year high.” Monday’s back-and-forth followed multiple tweets over the weekend, in which Bezos took issue with the White House’s argument that raising taxes on major corporations would help lower inflation. He argued the two were unrelated, and he suggested a government disinformation board should investigate a Biden tweet making that case.
Twitter turns the tables on Musk, will “enforce” merger - Twitter's board said Tuesday that it plans to "close the transaction and enforce the merger agreement" between Elon Musk and Twitter, The New York Times reports. "The board and Mr. Musk agreed to a transaction at $54.20 per share," Twitter's board said in a statement to The New York Times. "We believe this agreement is in the best interest of all shareholders. We intend to close the transaction and enforce the merger agreement.”This followed an earlier statement from Twitter that said it was “committed to completing the transaction on the agreed price and terms as promptly as practicable." Twitter’s board urged shareholders in a regulatory filing Tuesday to vote in favor of the deal. Musk said last week that the $44 billion deal with Twitter was "temporarily on hold" until CEO Parag Agrawal publicly proves that less than 5% of users are bots or spam accounts."My offer was based on Twitter's SEC filings being accurate," Musk said in a tweet. "Yesterday, Twitter's CEO publicly refused to show proof of <5%. This deal cannot move forward until he does."Musk currently has a contractual obligation to buy Twitter at the agreed price, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.
Windows under attack from Chinese threat actors: Microsoft - Tech giant Microsoft has alerted users about the latest malware campaigns and cyber threats and informed them that China-based state-sponsored threat actor group Hafnium is stirring the pot once again.According to Windows Central, this time, the alert is for Tarrask, a "defense evasion malware" that uses Windows Task Scheduler to hide a device's compromised status from itself."As Microsoft continues to track the high-priority state-sponsored threat actor HAFNIUM, new activity has been uncovered that leverages unpatched zero-day vulnerabilities as initial vectors," the company said in a blogpost.The attack comes from Hafnium, the state-sponsored, China-based group that users may recall to be a big deal because of its involvement in the Microsoft Exchange meltdown of 2021.The data gathered during that ordeal has been speculated to be fuel for AI innovations by the Chinese government, the report said.The company said it is currently tracking Hafnium's activity when it comes to novel exploits of the Windows subsystem.Hafnium is using Tarrask malware to ensure that compromised PCs remain vulnerable, employing a Windows Task Scheduler bug to clean up trails and make sure that on-disk artifacts of Tarrask's activities don't stick around to reveal what's going on. The tech giant also demonstrated how threat actors create scheduled tasks, how they cover their tracks, how the malware's evasion techniques are used to maintain and ensure persistence on systems and how to protect against this tactic.
Pay packages for US CEOs hit record for sixth year in a row - The pay packages of the top executives of the largest US corporations set another record in 2021, hitting a median value of $14.7 million. This was the tenth year in a row that median compensation increased and the sixth straight year of record setting packages for the chief executive officers (CEOs) of the top US companies.According to a Wall Street Journal analysis published on Monday, total compensation of the CEOs of more than 400 companies on the S&P 500 rose by 12 percent in 2021. The Journal study also said that “most companies recorded annual shareholder returns of nearly 30 percent.”Of the median total package value of $14.7 million, the analysis reports that $10.6 million consisted of equity awards, that is, non-cash compensation in the form of various company stock options. The balance of $4.1 million in the median CEO package was in the form of salaries, bonuses and other cash compensation.In 2020, the median CEO package was worth $13.4 million, and the cash component was $3.1 million. In other words, while workers in nearly every US industry saw a reduction in real wages in 2021 due to an inflation rate of 7 percent, the cash portion of median CEO compensation increased by 32.3 percent. As with everything related to the accumulation of vast sums of wealth in the upper echelons of American capitalist society, massive equity and cash compensation packages were awarded to a handful at the top end of the Journal rankings, and this exclusive club is growing. The analysis says, “Nine CEOs got pay packages worth at least $50 million last year—up from seven in 2020 and one in 2016.” At the very top of the list is Peter M. Kern of Expedia Group who took in $296.25 million in 2021, an increase of a whopping 6,952 percent from 2020. Kern took over the online travel shopping company in April 2020 when the pandemic devastated the travel and tourism industries worldwide. Since the collapse of Expedia Group on Wall Street at that time, the company’s stock surged to more than double its pre-pandemic level.Second on the CEO pay package list is David Zaslav, the longtime CEO of Discovery Inc. and now the newly merged Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc., who received a total pay package of $246 million, an increase of 554 percent from the previous year. Of this amount, 82 percent, or $203 million, was in the form of an option grant “that depends on the stock price at least doubling from current levels before December 2027.”Third on the list is Bill McDermott of ServiceNow, a software company that provides cloud computing services. McDermott’s 2021 package was worth $165 million, an increase of 560 percent over the previous year, and the cash portion is $3.57 million. McDermott has a $139.2 million option award that requires the company stock value to increase by half and that the company reach subscription revenue targets.Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, the most valuable company on Wall Street at $2.5 trillion, is next with total package worth $98.73 million and cash compensation of $15 million. Cook, who had not received an equity award since 2011, received nearly $84 million in options in recognition of “his exceptional leadership and is commensurate with the size, performance and profitability Apple has achieved during his tenure.” Apple finished 2021 with $94.7 billion in profit.Cook is followed by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon with a total pay package of $84.43 million, of which $6.5 million is salary and other cash compensation. The Journal says that Dimon “must wait at least five years to exercise options the company valued at $52.6 million, nearly two-thirds of his $84.4 million in reported 2021 pay, and hold resulting shares at least another five years.”
Crypto’s Crash: 100-to-1 Leverage Goes Poof! -- by Pam Martens - Crypto was in full-blown crash mode last week, wiping out more than $300 billion in market value. TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin that is supposed to trade at a “stable” $1 value, crashed to a few cents on the dollar. Its sister cryptocurrency, Luna, likewise imploded. Then there was Bitcoin, which Warren Buffett has called “rat poison squared.” Bitcoin plunged further last week and is now down more than 30 percent year-to-date. So much for the hype that it would be an inflation hedge like gold. Coinbase, the big crypto exchange, knocked more wind out of the sails of the crypto market on Tuesday of last week when it filed its 10-Q (quarterly report) with the Securities and Exchange Commission and essentially said it had no idea what might happen to $256 billion it held for customers. The filing illuminated its shareholders and customers as follows: “As of March 31, 2022, we held $256 billion in custodial fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies on behalf of customers. Supported crypto assets are not insured or guaranteed by any government or government agency. ..…Moreover, because custodially held crypto assets may be considered to be the property of a bankruptcy estate, in the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors. This may result in customers finding our custodial services more risky and less attractive and any failure to increase our customer base, discontinuation or reduction in use of our platform and products by existing customers as a result could adversely impact our business, operating results, and financial condition.” Imagine walking into your federally-insured bank to make a deposit into your savings account and being handed a notice that said it had no idea what might happen to your deposits. Coinbase went public in April of last year and traded as high as $368.90 intraday last year. It closed the trading week last Friday at a share price of $67.87, a decline of 82 percent from its 52-week intraday high.
Cryptocurrency market in turmoil - The cryptocurrency market was thrown into turmoil last week as the market value of bitcoin, the most widely used cryptocurrency, continued to fall and so-called “stablecoins” are collapsing. The use of stablecoins has increased over the past two years because they are supposed to provide some protection against the wild swings in the cryptocurrency markets, above all for bitcoin which has experienced several plunges in its history. Stablecoins have been likened to chips in a gambling casino. They can be used to buy cryptocurrencies without the use of government-backed currencies, principally the US dollar, enabling the user to make more rapid transactions. Deals involving regular currencies often take days to complete. Stablecoins are supposed to provide a degree of security because they can be cashed in, like a chip in the casino, at their face value, dollar for dollar. There are two types of stablecoin: those that are backed by holdings of financial assets, including cash, government bonds, corporate debt and those that seek to maintain their dollar-for-dollar peg through financial engineering based on the use of algorithms. But last week one of the latter type, TerraUSD and its associated stablecoin, Luna, collapsed. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) their demise “saddled investors with billions of dollars in losses and ricocheted back into other cryptocurrencies.” Seven days ago, Luna was trading at $81. It is now worthless, and Terra has been delisted from major exchanges meaning it is effectively finished after once being valued at $40 billion. The Financial Times (FT) reported that, according to the research firm, CryptoCompare, the Luna episode was “the largest destruction in this amount of time in a single project in crypto’s history.” Another trader and enthusiastic supporter of crypto told the FT Luna’s failure was “one of the greatest catastrophes crypto has ever seen” and a “real wake-up call” that it is possible crypto prices can fall to zero. The FT commented that while Terra’s demise was not systemic to the broader crypto market, it had far-reaching implications. “What matters more is that the episode has renewed concerns potential cracks in other stablecoins, including the biggest of them all, Tether, calling into question the foundations behind the crypto industry.”
Luna Foundation Sold 80,000 Bitcoin Amid UST Crash - Luna Foundation Guard (LFG), the non-profit organization holding Terra’s bitcoin reserves, confirmed on Monday morning that it had sold over 80,000 BTC over the past week to acquire TerraUSD (UST) in an attempt to defend its crumbling U.S. dollar peg.“Consistent with its non-profit mission & focus on the health of the Terra ecosystem, beginning on May 8, when the price of $UST began to drop substantially below one dollar, the Foundation began converting this reserve to $UST,” LFG said in a Twitter thread.Singapore-based LFG works to cultivate demand for Terra’s stablecoins and “buttress the stability of the UST peg and foster the growth of the Terra ecosystem.” It was in charge of acquiring and holding bitcoin to build the UST reserves.The foundation said it began transferring bitcoin funds to a counterparty “to enable them to enter trades with the Foundation in large size & on short notice.” That counterparty received north of 50,000 BTC in exchange for over 1.5 billion UST.As the UST value kept dropping, failing to shoot back toward its supposed $1 peg, Terraform Labs, the tech startup behind the development of Terra, sold 33,206 BTC for 1.16 billion UST on May 10 “in a last ditch effort to defend the peg,” LFG said.As of May 16, LFG holds 313 bitcoin in reserves, out of 80,394 BTC it held on May 7. The foundation also holds a handful of other assets, including UST and LUNA. The majority of its LUNA is staked (locked up) “across a range of validators to protect against a possible governance attack” as the token’s price kept dropping near zero and the amount of LUNA in circulation skyrocketed.“The Foundation is looking to use its remaining assets to compensate remaining users of $UST, smallest holders first,” LFG said in a final tweet. “We are still debating through various distribution methods, updates to follow soon.”
Bipartisan crypto plan would create oversight body for fintech — Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., wants to create a new oversight body for emerging financial technologies that do not fall under the jurisdiction of existing regulators. Speaking to the economist Paul Kupiec during a webinar for the American Enterprise Institute, Lummis said the new supervisory entity would be part of a broad-ranging bill on digital assets that she has co-authored with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y. “There will be sort of this oversight entity that will be created to look at new technologies that don't neatly fit within a certain regulatory framework that already exists, so we can continue to incorporate innovation in this space into our well understood regulatory framework,” Lummis said.
Warren Buffett Is Taking a Flyer on $3 Billion of Citigroup’s Stock — After It Loses 40 Percent in a Year - By Pam and Russ Martens ~ Tongues are wagging this morning about the 13F filing by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. The filing shows that in the first quarter of this year, Berkshire Hathaway bought 55,155,797 shares of Citigroup stock for its portfolio, which came to the tidy sum of $2.9 billion as of March 31, 2022. The tongue-wagging stems from the fact that over the past 52 weeks, Citigroup’s stock has lost 40 percent of its value, with no sign that the bleeding will stop anytime soon.Citigroup closed at $53.40 a share on March 31. It closed yesterday at $47.46. That means that Buffett’s wager on Citigroup is down 11 percent or a loss of $327.6 million so far. Knowing Citigroup’s history, things are highly likely to go from bad to worse from here. As Wall Street On Parade reported just last Friday, Citigroup’s Stock Price Is Still Down 84 Percent from the Year of the Crash in 2008. Buffett taking a big stake in Citigroup is even more peculiar given that Berkshire Hathaway had dumped an $8 billion stake in JPMorgan Chase in 2020, according to its 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. (JPMorgan Chase, under the leadership of Jamie Dimon as Chairman and CEO, has racked up five criminal felony counts since 2014. It has admitted to all of them.)Buffett, for reasons that are not fully understood by even Wall Street veterans, has previously come to the rescue of battered Wall Street firms. In 1987 Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway took a $700 million stake in Salomon Brothers’ convertible preferred stock, giving him an approximate 12 percent ownership in the company. Four years later, top executives at Salomon were under investigation for concealing efforts by traders to rig the U.S. Treasury auction. Buffett stepped in as Interim Chairman of Salomon in an effort to restore the firm’s reputation.Buffett pulled another rescue at the height of the financial crisis in September 2008. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway took a $5 billion preferred share stake in Goldman Sachs with an eye-popping dividend of 10 percent at a time when Goldman Sachs’ share price was in a precipitous decline. Berkshire also received five-year warrants to purchase $5 billion of Goldman’s common stock with a strike price of $115 per share. (Goldman bought back the preferred shares from Buffett in 2011. In a revised deal, Berkshire executed its warrants with Goldman in 2013.)To put the best face on his Goldman rescue, Buffett released the following statement at the time:“Goldman Sachs is an exceptional institution. It has an unrivaled global franchise, a proven and deep management team and the intellectual and financial capital to continue its track record of outperformance.” What was really going on at this “exceptional institution” was that it was allowing hedge funds, like Paulson & Company, to hand pick subprime debt likely to fail so that it could short the instruments, while Goldman Sachs knowingly sold the debt to its other customers as a good investment.
How the Options Tail Has Come to Wag the Market Dog: A Simple English Language Explanation of How Structural Changes in the Stock Markets Contribute to Whipsaw Movements in Prices - Lately a string of violent price movements and reversals in the equity markets make it look like the markets are having a nervous breakdown. The last day of trading in April 2022 saw a 939 point drop in the Dow. The day before that, the Dow rose about 625 points, and two days before that it fell over 800 points. The very next week, after two quiet days, the Dow rose over 900 points after the Fed announced its biggest rate hike in 22 years (ordinarily a big negative for the markets), and then, the next day, fell over 1000 points (more on this later). There have been plenty of headlines – about the Ukraine Invasion, inflation, the threat of a Fed caused recession, supply chain disruptions – to justify increased uncertainty, but the amplitude of the moves (and the sudden reversals) suggest something more may be at work. Here follows an effort to explain in simple language the significant changes in the market that have contributed to this volatility. “This time it’s different” is perhaps the most dangerous phrase in finance as usually it’s uttered by market cheerleaders just before a bubble bursts. That said, markets do change, and those changes have their impacts. One change in the markets has been the shift from intermediaries (such as brokers) to direct electronic trading, a shift that has made the markets somewhat frictionless, and allowed computer driven funds to do high speed trading. This shift began a couple of decades ago. Today’s markets can move faster than a human can react. Another shift has been the degree to which passive investing through index funds and algorithmic trading through various quant funds have come to eclipse retail investing and dominate trading. A consequence of this is that to some degree it has mooted individual stock picking because when investors move in or out of index funds, the managers have to buy or sell the stocks held on a pro rata basis and not on individual merit. This change too has been developing over recent decades. A more recent and consequential shift, however, has been the explosion in the sale of derivatives, particularly options (the right to buy or sell a stock or index at a specified price on or before a specific date). Between 2019 and the end of 2021, the volume of call options (the right to buy a stock at a specified price on or before a particular date) has roughly doubled. During times of volatility, more and more retail and institutional investors now buy calls or puts rather than the stocks. Today, trading in options has reached a scale that it affects market moves. A critical factor is the role of the dealers who write options and account for a significant percentage of the options issued. Dealers have been happy to accommodate the growth in option trading by selling calls or puts. This however, makes them essentially short what they have just sold. Normally, this doesn’t matter as most options expire out of the money and worthless, leaving the happy dealer to book the premium. Being short options, however, does begin to matter more and more as an option both moves closer to being in the money and closer to expiration. This situation is more likely to occur when markets make large and fast moves, situations such as we have today given the pile of major uncertainties. Such moves force dealers to hedge their exposure.
Fed Chair Powell Says “Markets Are Orderly” and “Functioning.” They’re Not. by Pam Martens - This past Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sat for an interview with Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos as part of the newspaper’s “Future of Everything Festival.” During that interview, Powell told Timiraos that U.S. markets “are orderly, they’re functioning.” The precise exchange went as follows: (Watch it at 24:38 on YouTube video here.)
Timiraos: “A Number of people have suggested to me the one thing that might slow you down or at least make this much more difficult would be some kind of market cataclysm. I wonder, in part, if that is why you are trying to be more transparent, not erratic, making sudden moves on your policy moves. My question there is, where’s your level of concern that financial stability and controlling inflation by raising interest rates, maybe a lot, might be fundamentally incompatible in that raising rates causes financial disruption, but doesn’t actually bring inflation under control? Where is your level of concern around that situation?”
Powell: “I don’t see that happening. We monitor a very broad range of financial conditions, and we’re doing that now, we’ll keep doing that. Different cycles look different. Sometimes the tightening takes place in one market, sometimes in another, sometimes in credit spreads, sometimes in all of them. So we’re watching them all as a group. Volatility has been up a little bit, that has some effect on liquidity in some markets. Nonetheless, the markets are orderly, they’re functioning. I think they’re processing the way we’re thinking – the way the FOMC is thinking about policy – pretty well. And I think the idea, again, is to have financial conditions tighten to the point where growth will moderate but still be positive, but moderate to the point where supply and demand can get back in alignment, and where we can get inflation back down to two percent. I see that broadly working pretty well right now. Obviously, there are some volatile days in volatile markets. But, so far, I see us getting through this fairly well.”
Powell has a law degree, not an economics degree. Thus, his misdiagnosis that inflation would be transitory already makes his judgement suspect. To now suggest that the stock market is “orderly” and “functioning” in the face of a mountain of evidence to the contrary makes Powell look completely out-of-touch with reality.Yesterday, the giant retailer, Target, lost 25 percent of its market value. In one trading session. That amounts to a $24.9 billion loss to shareholders. That’s not an orderly market. It’s also not normal.On May 9, Jefferies tech analyst Brent Thill appeared on CNBC and said this about his tech trading desk:“This has taken on more negativity than we could have imagined. We have no buyers on our desk. There’s max pain and it’s darker than I’ve seen in the last decade in covering many of these names.”A little later in the interview, Thill added this: “I can tell you with high conviction that the biggest names on Wall Street right now are sitting out this and waiting…there’s a massive buyers’ strike right now.”Memo to Fed Chair Powell: If you have only sellers and no buyers, you do not have an orderly market.
Margin Debt: Down 3.3% in April -Note: The NYSE suspended its NYSE Member Firm margin data as of December 2017. We have replaced our Margin Debt data with FINRA data, which includes data for all firms, not just NYSE member firms. The New York Stock Exchange previously published end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, including historical data going back to 1959. Because of NYSE's suspension of publication, we have turned to FINRA to continue our analysis. The figures differ in their inclusion of firms. For data through January 2010, debit balances were derived by adding NYSE debit balances in margin accounts to FINRA debit balances in customers' cash and margin accounts and credit balances were derived by adding NYSE free credit balances in cash and margin accounts to FINRA free and other credit balances in customers' securities accounts. For data after January 2010, "As of February 2010, data are collected pursuant to FINRA Rule 4521 and are aggregated across all member firms, regardless of whether the firm was designated to NASD or the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before the consolidation of NASD and the member firm regulation operations of NYSE Regulation in July 2007 that created FINRA," (FINRA statistics definition, FINRA website). As a result of this change, the debt data is higher than the NYSE data.Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today's dollar using the Consumer Price Index as the deflator
FDIC, CFPB target crypto firms that make false claims of deposit insurance -Two financial regulatory agencies are threatening to crack down on cryptocurrency and other fintech firms that falsely suggest their institutions have deposit insurance. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. adopted a rule Tuesday that outlines its authority to prohibit individuals and organizations from making misrepresentations about deposit insurance, or misusing the FDIC’s name or logo. Following the meeting, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued an enforcement memorandum to the same end. Although the agencies’ actions apply generally across the financial system, individual policymakers suggested that the crackdown is targeted at fintech and crypto firms.
U.S. pries into over 100 trader and banker phones in texting probe The U.S. is forcing Wall Street banks to embark on a systematic search through more than 100 personal mobile phones carried by top traders and dealmakers in the largest-ever probe into clandestine messaging on platforms such as WhatsApp. The Securities and Exchange Commission has been sending firms lists of key positions — in some cases pointing to around 30 people including heads of certain investment banking teams or trading desks — that are subject to the review, according to people with direct knowledge of the requests. Personnel in those roles are being ordered to hand over phones so devices can be examined by lawyers. The aim is to gauge how pervasively Wall Street professionals use unauthorized messaging platforms to chat with each other or clients as regulators decide which firms to punish, and how hard, for failing to preserve business-related messages sent via unapproved platforms. Banks including Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, HSBC Holdings and Credit Suisse Group have said they’re in the midst of fielding US inquiries into messaging apps, though it’s not clear whether all are now accessing phones.
Deutsche Bank gets WhatsApp information request from regulator - Deutsche Bank has been asked by one of its key supervisors to clarify how its staff use private messages for business purposes as regulators worldwide seek to curb the practice. The German financial watchdog BaFin is following up on indications that senior Deutsche Bank executives including management board members have been relying on messaging tools such as WhatsApp and private email accounts to conduct business, people familiar with the matter said. Bafin has asked the lender to provide information about how its employees use the communication methods to determine whether it has been in compliance with banking rules, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing the private matter.
Fed's balance sheet runoff raises uncertainty for capital rules -The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy shift could have an unexpected conflict with the central bank’s supervisory mandates for banks to hold liquid assets for a rainy day. On June 1, the central bank will begin shedding assets from its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, a process that will also reduce its liabilities, a sizable portion of which are reserves held by banks, and reducing those balances is not as simple as allowing Fed-owned securities to expire. Banks have favored heightened reserve balances as a stress buffer in recent years. This is due to both their voluminous supply — with more than $4.1 trillion in the Fed system as of last November — as well as contemporary capital requirements.
California lawmakers ask FDIC to cut off high-cost consumer lenders California lawmakers are asking the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to rein in partnerships between FDIC-supervised banks and consumer lenders they say are evading the state’s interest rate limits. The agency should “crack down on these schemes” to ensure lenders cannot dodge California’s 36% annual percentage rate cap on loans between $2,500 and $10,000, four Democratic legislators wrote in a letter to FDIC board members. The lawmakers were the authors of a 2019 state law that banned such loans. “FDIC-supervised depository institutions should not be permitted to originate loans on behalf of third parties who seek to evade state laws that protect consumers from unaffordable interest rates,” the legislators said in the letter, which was sent last week.
Four ways cannabis banking could cross the finish line in 2022 — The legalization of cannabis banking looks as likely as ever, but the road lawmakers will take to get there remains an open question. Even in states where the substance has been legalized for recreational or medical use, many law-abiding cannabis companies have struggled for years to access basic financial services from depository institutions (though some have been willing to take the plunge). Nearly a decade after Colorado and Washington State first legalized the substance, legal cannabis companies have been plagued with an overabundance of cash. Major payment companies like Visa and Mastercard have explicit policies preventing their electronic systems from being used to purchase or sell cannabis so long as it remains criminalized at the federal level, and as a result those companies have to do business primarily in cash. That reality is a deterrent for many banks, which would prefer not to take on clients who show up in their branches with cash-stuffed duffle bags looking to make a deposit.Congress has been aware of this problem for some time, and in 2013 U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, D-Colo., introduced a bill that would provide a federal safe harbor for banks to work with cannabis firms. Perlmutter’s bill, the Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act, passed the House in 2019 with remarkably widespread bipartisan support. But since then, the bill has remained on the shelf in the Senate and has not been brought up for a vote. In 2019 and 2020 the Republican-led chamber did not act on the bill out of concern that it might alienate some of the GOP's core base, while the Senate under Democratic control since January 2021 has stalled the bill in favor of broader decriminalization and restorative justice legislation. But after years of stasis, many policy analysts are suddenly bullish on the reform’s odds of passage by the end of the year, and there are four main legislative avenues for the SAFE Act to become law before 2023.
CFPB is 'no longer sleeping' on payments, former regulators say --For years, there were usually less than a handful of cases at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that involved payments. That is rapidly becoming a thing of the past. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra has made payments a top priority, and is looking closely at impacts on competition and the impact of rapid payments innovation on consumers, according to Thomas Ward, a partner at Sidley Austin in Washington who was an enforcement director at the bureau from February 2021 to May 2021. "Payments has always been a sleepy space at the bureau," Ward said during a panel at American Banker's Payments Forum in Phoenix this week, noting the Biden administration and CFPB are taking a more active approach as technology companies that provide payments become larger.
BankThink: Beware the Fed’s heavy hand in proposed CRA reforms | American Banker -- What is billed as an interagency Community Reinvestment Act reform proposal is really the heavy-handed handiwork of the Federal Reserve, which refused to work with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in their January 2020 joint reform effort under the Trump administration.The politically savvy Fed issued a competing September 2020 version, hoping a new Biden administration would look more favorably on its approach to CRA reform. Their political bet paid off as their chair was not only reappointed, but their CRA reform architect was appointed as vice chair by the new president.More important, the president tapped a former Fed chair as Treasury secretary who, in turn, tapped a Fed official as acting comptroller of the currency, resulting in his being an FDIC director. One of his first actions was to rescind the previous comptroller’s final rule on CRAand publicly support working with the Fed and FDIC on interagency reform.
Caught between bankers and activists, can the CRA reform proposal make everyone happy? — Federal bank regulators moved forward on their major rewrite of the Community Reinvestment Act to wide applause from unusual bedfellows: banking trade organizations and community groups. The nearly 700-page overhaul of the anti-redlining law is decades in the making, especially after the Trump-era failed bid to rewrite it. The CRA hasn’t been updated since 1995, and new technologies have substantially changed how banks do business since then. Martin Gruenberg, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), said that the new proposed Community Reinvestment Act rule would make CRA exams more difficult for some banks Thursday’s proposal is meant to modernize and strengthen the CRA, adding new assessment areas based on where some banks lend instead of where they have physical branches, regulators said. And banks could face tougher CRA examinations, but they’d have more clarity on what kind of activity the regulators would credit.
Ex-FHFA chief Calabria warns of Fannie, Freddie risk -Mark Calabria, who oversaw the government-controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under the Trump administration, is sounding alarm bells about the possibility of another bailout for the two companies if the housing market backslides.Calabria was appointed by Trump as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency in April 2019 but was fired by the Biden administration in 2021 well before his term was to expire. A 2020 Supreme Court ruling gave the president the authority to remove the FHFA director.In an interview on IntraFi Network's "Banking with Interest" podcast published Tuesday, Calabria bemoaned Congress’s inability to address the nearly 14-year-old conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie and the risk that has built up within the system since.
Disaster repair fraud adds billions of dollars to claims costs -Contractor fraud added $4.6 billion to $9.2 billion, or 5% to 10%, to the cost of disaster claims paid by property-casualty insurers in the past year, according to a report released Tuesday by the National Insurance Crime Bureau.The increased expense has ramifications for mortgage companies as well as insurance providers as it puts upward pressure on premiums at a time when the industry and consumers are facing heightened financial strains. While profitability from high rates of lending have cushioned mortgage companies andbanks from the impact of natural disasters in the past, lower margins on loans and other developments are making cost controls for claims more pressing at a time when servicers are contending with a backlog of distressed homes that may have deteriorated over time. At the same time, consumers are facing increased strain from the rollback of pandemic-related rescue funds and inflation.
Mortgage fraud costs banks more than nonbanks - Real estate scams have the highest impact on depository mortgage originators, costing them $5.34 for every $1 of fraudulent transactions, a study from LexisNexis Risk Solutions revealed. That is 68 cents per dollar more than the effect on nondepository originators, at $4.66. For servicers the numbers are much closer, at $4.83 for depositories and $4.79 for nonbanks. For title and settlement agents, a group on the front lines when it comes to mortgage fraud attacks, the cost was $4.91 per dollar.While no specific answers for the difference were available, Dawn Hill, director of real estate fraud and identity strategy at LexisNexis Risk Solutions, explained that "a sizable portion of fraud costs are related to labor, including manual reviews, fraud investigation, reporting and recovery."
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.94% in April" --Note: This is as of April 30th.From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.94% in AprilThe Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 11 basis points from 1.05% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.94% as of April 30, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate, 470,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 6 basis points to 0.43%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 9 basis points to 1.29%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 29 basis points to 2.15%.“With the number of borrowers in forbearance decreasing to less than half a million, the pace of monthly forbearance exits reached its lowest level since MBA started tracking exits in June 2020,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Servicers are expected to continue making small incremental inroads to the remaining loans in forbearance.”In addition to improvement in the overall forbearance rate, the percentage of borrowers who were current on their mortgage payments increased to the highest level of 2022, despite potential headwinds such as high inflation and stock market volatility.This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.The share of forbearance plans is decreasing, and, at the end of April, there were about 470,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.
Black Knight: "Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Yet Another Record Low in April" -From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Yet Another Record Low in April, Driven by Continued Improvement Among Seriously Past-Due Loans The national delinquency rate fell to 2.80% in April, down four basis points from March, hitting a new record low for the second consecutive month
• Overall delinquencies are down nearly 40% from last year as the mortgage market continues to recover from pandemic-related impacts
• The number of borrowers who are a single payment past due increased 7.9% month-over-month, following typical seasonal patterns
• This was offset by strong improvement among borrowers who are three or more payments past due – with volumes falling by 8% month-over-month
• Though such serious delinquencies have fallen between 6%-12% in each of the past 14 months, volumes remain more than 55% above pre-pandemic levels
• Despite still-elevated serious delinquency levels, foreclosure starts dropped nearly 12% from March and are holding well below pre-pandemic levels – though active foreclosures edged slightly higher
• Prepayment activity fell by 19.1% from March and 61.8% from a year ago as interest rates continued their sharp ascent in April
According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 1.3% in April compared to March and decreased 40% year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased 2.3% in April and were up 13.5% over the last year. (First year-over-year increase in almost 10 years - but from very low levels)Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 2.80% in April, down from 2.84% in March. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased in April to 0.32%, from 0.32% in March.The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 1,004,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 20,000 properties year-over-year.
Household debt surges to more than $15 trillion in Q1, according to NY Fed -Americans are continuing to borrow money despite rising interest rates, sending household debt up $266 billion (1.7%) in the first quarter of 2022, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Household Debt and Credit Report.Mortgage balances hit $11.18 trillion by the end of March, the report stated, rising by $250 billion in Q1. Loan balances are $1.7 trillion higher when compared to the end of 2019, the report added, which was just before the COVID-19 pandemic began."The first quarter of 2022 saw an increase in mortgage and auto loan balances coupled with a typical seasonal decrease in credit card balances," said Andrew Haughwout, the New York Fed's director of household and public policy research division. "However, mortgage originations declined from the historically high volumes seen in 2021, reflecting an unwinding in the demand for refinances."The NY Fed's report showed that credit card debt dropped by $15 billion in the first quarter, while other forms of credit increased. However, credit card balances are still $71 billion higher than they were in the first quarter of 2021, a substantial annual increase.Borrowers also appear to be less interested in taking out new credit in recent months. The number of credit inquiries — which indicate demand of consumer credit — within the past six months was at 109 million, according to the report, a drop of 5.1% compared with the previous quarter.In total, 229 million new accounts were opened in the first quarter, a rise from Q4 2021 and slightly higher than typical pre-pandemic levels.
New York Is Facing a Pandemic-Fueled Home Energy Crisis, With No End in Sight - During the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, Jen Chantrtanapichate fell behind on her utility bills after she lost her contract as a consultant.“I was enrolled in autopay and paying all my bills on time before the pandemic,” Chantrtanapichate said, adding that her utility debt accumulated over the last two years. Despite being on staff for months now, she is still not on top of her bills, she said, and owes $1,400 to National Grid for her electric service and over $700 on gas bills from Con Edison. The two utilities hold a monopoly in Brooklyn, where she lives. Similar tales of ballooning utility debt have been reported on Manhattan’s Upper West Side, in other parts of Brooklyn and in Astoria and Ozone Park in Queens. But the energy crisis is not limited to New York City. Households all over the state that get their electricity from utilities found their utility debt mounting over the winter. Now, as the weather warms, households in some counties have started to see power shutoffs, and advocates fear there may be many more to follow. Exacerbated by the pandemic, the utility debt crisis has had a disproportionate impact on some of the most vulnerable groups, including low-income households and undocumented families. With more people staying home, whether because they are unemployed or working remotely, utility consumption has increased, and people have fallen behind on their payments. Earlier this year, customers also saw a 200 percent to 300 percent increase in their utility bills.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 11.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 13, 2022. ... The Refinance Index decreased 10 percent from the previous week and was 76 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 12 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 15 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage applications decreased for the first time in three weeks, as mortgage rates – despite declining last week – remained over two percentage points higher than a year ago and close to the highest levels since 2009. For borrowers looking to refinance, the current level of rates continues to be a significant disincentive,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase applications fell 12 percent last week, as prospective homebuyers have been put off by the higher rates and worsening affordability conditions. Furthermore, general uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook, as well as recent stock market volatility, may be causing some households to delay their home search.” “These results were consistent with MBA’s May forecast released earlier this week, which now calls for fewer home sales and mortgage originations in 2022 compared to a year ago.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 5.49 percent from 5.53 percent, with points increasing to 0.74 from 0.73 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week. emphasis added The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.
Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Mortgage Applications Plunge amid Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates, Croaking Stocks, Ridiculous Home Prices -Pieces of evidence are lining up in increasing density. The number of potential future homebuyers that need a mortgage has been thinning out for months. Today, another milestone: Applications for mortgages to purchase a home dropped 12% from the prior week and were down 15% from a year ago.In its report, the Mortgage Bankers Association today added that “prospective homebuyers have been put off by higher rates and worsening affordability conditions” – namely the ridiculous spike in home prices over the past 18 months, on top of the surge in prior years, combined with mortgage rates returning to what would have been still very low rates a couple of decades ago.The MBA’s Purchase Mortgage Applications Index dropped to the lows of late 2018. Back then, the Fed had been hiking rates, and its QT had pushed mortgage rates to a hair over 5%, volume was drying up, and prices had started to wobble and were coming down in some markets. But inflation was below the Fed’s target, and Trump had been keelhauling Powell on a daily basis. Powell caved, mortgage rates dropped again, and volume and prices took off again. Now raging inflation is the dominant economic concern, and the Fed is determined to get it under control (data via Investing.com):The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate with conforming balances and 20% down this week eased a tiny bit to 5.49%, according to the MBA today, from the prior week’s 5.53%, both the highest holy-moly mortgage rates since 2009 (data via Investing.com):And it’s not just mortgage rates: The MBA added that “general uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook, as well as recent stock market volatility, may be causing some households to delay their home search.”In this context, “volatility” always means sagging stock prices, because no one complains about upward volatility, and stocks are croaking. I mean, not every day, because we’ve had some sharp bear-market rallies, but they don’t last long, and then stocks skid to lower lows. It’s unnerving for people who’ve come to expect eternal and easy riches from stocks, and had built their whole future on this theory.If you were going to borrow your down-payment by taking out a margin loan against your soaring stocks, you may now have second thoughts, that’s for sure. I mean, look at the sh*tshow going today, with the Nasdaq down 4% at the moment, subject to change.Cryptos were not mentioned by the MBA, and that’s a good thing because they’re just gambling tokens. But some bigger cryptos have already collapsed to essentially zero. Others are on the way. Bitcoin has plunged about 58% from November, and is down 25% from a year ago.And that’s not confidence-inspiring for people who’d expected to use their crypto gambling wins to buy a house with. Those that got out early, made it. And those that believe in HODL (“hold on for dear life”), well, they’re going to have to keep believing. Applications for mortgages to refinance an existing mortgage dropped further, having plunged all year amid these holy-moly mortgage rates, with the MBA’s Refinance Mortgage Applications Index hitting the lowest point since the end of 2018.
Housing Inventory May 16th Update: Inventory UP 1.5% Year-over-Year - Altos reports inventory is up year-over-year! - Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 32% since then.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 13th, inventory was at 318 thousand (7-day average), compared to 305 thousand the prior week.Inventory was up 4.2% from the previous week.Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 1.5% from 314 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 56.4% from 729 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 65.2% from 915 thousand.Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) 
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos)
3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 56% according to Altos)
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 65%).
Here is a graph of the inventory change year-over-year and vs two years ago (milestone 3 above).The blue line is the year-over-year data, and the red line is compared to two years ago.Inventory is now up year-over-year. Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 5% Year-over-year - Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released this morning from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending May 14, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. Active inventory moved convincingly into positive territory for the first time since 2019. While last week’s positive inventory improvement rounded to 0%, this week’s data built on that trend in a notable way, leading to the biggest year over year gain since March 2019. Our April Housing Trends Report showed that the active listings count remained 60 percent below its level right at the onset of the pandemic. This means that today’s buyers have just 2 homes to consider for every 5 homes that were available for sale just before the pandemic. In other words, homes for sale are still limited. However, more sellers combined with a slowing level of sales activity is causing a relatively rapid transition in conditions.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Note the rapid increase in the YoY change, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 5% YoY now. It will be important to watch if that trend continues. The previous week, inventory was unchanged YoY according to Realtor.com. That is close to the 1.5% increase that Altos reported for the similar period. I expect Altos to report a stronger year-over-year increase in inventory on Monday.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.61 million SAAR in April -From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Retract 2.4% in April - Existing-home sales recorded a third straight month of declines, slipping slightly in April, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Month-over-month sales were split amongst the four major U.S. regions, with two areas posting gains and the other two experiencing waning in April. Year-over-year sales struggled, as each of the four regions reported dips.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slid 2.4% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million in April. Year-over-year, sales dropped 5.9% (5.96 million in April 2021)....Total housing inventory at the end of April amounted to 1,030,000 units, up 10.8% from March and down 10.4% from one year ago (1.15 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 1.9 months in March and down from 2.3 months in April 2021.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.Sales in April (5.61 million SAAR) were down 2.4% from the previous month and were 5.9% below the April 2021 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.03 million in April from 0.93 million in March. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.Inventory was down 10.4% year-over-year (blue) in April compared to April 2021.Months of supply (red) increased to 2.2 months in April from 1.9 months in March.This was close to the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.
More Analysis on April Existing Home Sales - Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.61 million SAAR in April
Excerpt: Sales in April (5.61 million SAAR) were down 2.4% from the previous month and were 5.9% below the April 2021 sales rate. The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2021 and 2022.Sales declined 5.9% year-over-year compared to March 2021. This was the eighth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year....A key milestone will be when inventory is up year-over-year (YoY). My current guess is inventory will be up YoY next month in the NAR report. Inventory will still be historically very low.Also note that 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.98% in April according to Freddie Mac. Now rates are around 5.45%. Sometimes people rush to buy as rates rise - anticipating further rate increases. However, eventually, higher rates will suppress demand. It seems likely we will see a further negative impact on sales from higher rates, and more inventory in the coming months.There is much more in the article.
As Supply Rises & Mortgage Rates Spike, US Home Sales Fall to Lowest since June 2020, Plunge in California’s Coastal Metros - Wolf Richter - Sales in the US of previously-owned homes – houses, condos, and townhouses – fell by 2.4% in April from March, based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales, and were down 5.9% from a year ago, with a much steeper decline in condo sales (-13.9% year-over-year), than in house sales (-4.8% year-over-year), the National Association of Realtors reported today.It was the ninth month in a row of year-over-year declines, even as supply of homes listed for sale continued to rise (data via YCharts):“Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity,” the NAR’s report said. “It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months.”The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales, at 5.61 million, was the lowest since June 2020 (data via YCharts):Sales of single-family houses dropped by 2.5% in April from March, seasonally adjusted, and by 4.8% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million houses, the lowest since June 2020.Sales of condos dropped 1.6% in April from March, seasonally adjusted, and by 13.9% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 condos, the lowest since July 2020.By Region, the percent change of the seasonally adjusted annual rate of total home sales in April from March, and year-over-year (yoy):
Northeast: +15% from March, -10.7% yoy.
Midwest: -3.1% from March, -1.5% yoy.
South: -4.6% from March, -5.7% yoy.
West: -5.8% from March, -8.1% yoy.
In California, sales plunged, except at the top.According to a separate report by the California Association of Realtors (CAR), sales volume of houses dropped 8.5% in April year-over-year; and sales of condos plunged 20%, “as rising interest rates and higher home prices depressed housing demand,” the CAR said.Sales in the coastal metros of California plunged by the most, and this is where prices have long entered the astronomical zone. Something serious is going on there:
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.724 million Annual Rate in April -From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately‐owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,724,000. This is 0.2 percent below the revised March estimate of 1,728,000, but is 14.6 percent above the April 2021 rate of 1,505,000. Single‐family housing starts in April were at a rate of 1,100,000; this is 7.3 percent below the revised March figure of 1,187,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 612,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,819,000. This is 3.2 percent below the revised March rate of 1,879,000, but is 3.1 percent above the April 2021 rate of 1,765,000. Single‐ family authorizations in April were at a rate of 1,110,000; this is 4.6 percent below the revised March figure of 1,163,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 656,000 in April..The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in April compared to March. Multi-family starts were up 40.5% year-over-year in April. Single-family starts (red) decreased in April and were up 3.7% year-over-year.The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery (but still not historically high).Total housing starts in April were below expectations, and starts in February and March, were revised down, combined.
April Housing Starts: All-Time Record Housing Units Under Construction - Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: April Housing Starts: All-Time Record Housing Units Under Construction. Excerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).Red is single family units. Currently there are 815 thousand single family units under construction (SA). This is the highest level since November 2006.For single family, many of these homes are already sold (Census counts sales when contract is signed). The reason there are so many homes is probably due to construction delays. Since many of these are already sold, it is unlikely this is “overbuilding”, or that this will significantly impact prices (although the buyers will be moving out of their current home or apartment once these homes are completed).Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 826 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since May 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.Combined, there are a record 1.641 million units under construction. This eclipses the previous record of 1.628 million units that were under construction (mostly apartments in 1973 for the baby boom generation).There is much more in the post.
New Residential Building Permits: Down 3.2% in April --The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.819M was down 3.2% from the March reading and is above the Investing.com forecast of 1.812M. Annual revisions were made.Here is the opening of this morning's monthly report:Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,819,000. This is 3.2 percent below the revised March rate of 1,879,000, but is 3.1 percent above the April 2021 rate of 1,765,000. Singlefamily authorizations in April were at a rate of 1,110,000; this is 4.6 percent below the revised March figure of 1,163,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 656,000 in April. [link to report] Here is the complete historical series, which dates from 1960. Because of the extreme volatility of the monthly data points, a 6-month moving average has been included.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 69 in May, "Housing market is now slowing" --The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 69, down from 77 in April. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Plunges on Rising Interest Rates, Growing Affordability Woes In a sign that the housing market is now slowing, builder confidence took a steep drop in May as growing affordability challenges in the form of rapidly rising interest rates, double-digit price increases for material costs and ongoing home price appreciation are taking a toll on buyer demand. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell eight points to 69 in May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined and the lowest reading since June 2020. Housing is the business cycle, and the sector is particularly sensitive to changes for interest rates. And the housing market is facing growing challenges. Building material costs are up 19% from a year ago, in less than three months mortgage rates have surged to a 12-year high and based on current affordability conditions, less than 50% of new and existing home sales are affordable for a typical family. Entry-level and first-time home buyers are especially bearing the brunt of this rapid rise in mortgage rates....All three HMI indices posted major losses in May. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell eight points to 78, the gauge measuring sales expectations in the next six months dropped 10 points to 63 and the component charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a nine-point decline to 52.Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast held steady at 72 while the Midwest dropped seven points to 62, the South fell two points to 80 and the West posted a six-point decline to 83.This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.This was well below the consensus forecast, but still historically a decent reading.
AIA: "Architecture Billings Index moderates slightly, remains strong" in April - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index moderates slightly, remains strong - For the fifteenth consecutive month architecture firms reported increasing demand for design services in April, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA)AIA’s Architecture Billings Index score for April was 56.5 compared to 58.0 in March. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings. During April, scores for both new project inquiries and design contracts moderated slightly, but remained strong, posting scores of 62.3 and 55.4, respectively.“While business conditions at architecture firms have been very encouraging over the past year, project activity has been steadily shifting toward work on existing buildings,”. “Billings for reconstruction projects exceeded those for new construction for the first time in the last two decades. While the reconstruction share of building activity will continue to ebb and flow, in general, we’ll continue to move toward an increased share of building activity for reconstruction and a decreased share for new construction.”...
• Regional averages: West (58.2); Midwest (57.6); South (57.3); Northeast (53.1)
• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (61.2); commercial/industrial (60.7); multi-family residential (57.2); institutional (51.8)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 56.5 in April, down from 58.0 in March. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.This index has been positive for fifteen consecutive months. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a pickup in CRE investment in 2022.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 5.9% Compared to Same Week in 2019 --From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Rates Outpace Pre-Pandemic Levels by 10% -U.S. hotel performance improved from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through May 14. May 8-14, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 66.5% (-5.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $148.31 (+10.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $98.59 (+4.1%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is at the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will now mostly move sideways seasonally until the summer travel season.
My List of 23 Major US Office Markets, by Vacancy Rates Ranging from Abysmal to Just Terrible by Wolf Richter - The news for the office sector of commercial real estate just keeps getting worse. Some tech and social media companies have announced hiring freezes, including Facebook and Twitter. Others have made cutting costs suddenly a priority, promising very constrained hiring, such as Uber. Numerous startups are laying off people, included used-car online dealer Carvana, which fired 2,500 workers last week. Mortgage lenders from Wells Fargo on down have started laying off significant portions of their employees as mortgage lending is now in the dumps.In addition, there is the shift working from home for office employees, and hybrid models where employees show up at the office only every now and then.All this follows years of office construction booms. New office towers are being completed and put on the market with the latest and greatest amenities, and these trophy towers are competing with older office towers for shrinking office needs.A widespread flight to quality has set in: When leases in older towers terminate, the tenants move to the trophy towers, and leave the older towers vacant. And landlords cannot lower the rents enough because they wouldn’t be able to meet their mortgage payments. So, the office sector of commercial real estate is facing an ugly reality.Availability rates, which sounds a less bad than vacancy rates, have shot up during the pandemic, and in many cities have continued to rise through Q1 2022, and are now in the astronomical zone.The worst four office markets in terms of availability rates are Chicago Suburban (31.7%), Houston (30.5%), Dallas-Fort Worth (30.9%), and San Francisco (26.8%), according to data from Savills. In San Francisco, for example, the availability rate of 26.8% was a new record worst in the data, and was up from an availability rate of 7.3% in Q3 2019. In 2017 and 2018, San Francisco was the hottest tightest office market in the US. It was called “office shortage,” where companies were leasing or buying office space they didn’t need, and to hog this space, before anyone else could get it, so that they’d have space to eventually grow into. Now there are 23.1 million square feet (msf) of available office space on the market in San Francisco, according to Savills, up from 6.1 msf in 2019. And new construction is still coming on the market. But San Francisco isn’t the worst office market. That honor goes to the Chicago Suburban market, Houston, and Dallas-Fort Worth – all of them with availability rates above 30%, according to Savills. Houston had for years the worst office market in the US, starting in 2015 when an office construction boom smacked into the oil bust, where a slew of Texas-based oil and gas companies filed for bankruptcy, and where the entire industry went through major bouts of cost cutting, layoffs, and footprint reduction. Houston’s availability rates soared. Then came the pandemic and working from home, and it got even worse. So here are 24 major office markets in the US (update: I just added Nashville to the original 23 after Savills released the data a few hours after this was published), and their availability rates in Q1 2021 (green) and Q1 2022 (purple), in order from abysmally worst to just terrible, with the least worst on this list, Boston, having an availability rate of 15.3%.In six of the 24 markets, availability rates fell year-over-year, and the most in Boston (by 2.0 percentage points). In 18 of the 24 markets, availability rates worsened year-over-year, and they worsened the fastest in San Francisco (by 3.2 percentage points), in Nashville (by 2.7 percentage points), in Charlotte (by 2.5 percentage points), in Chicago Downtown (by 2.4 percentage points), and in Tampa Bay (by 2.3 percentage points):
Retail Sales Increased 0.9% in April - On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 0.9% from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 8.2 percent from April 2021.
From the Census Bureau report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $677.7 billion, an increase of 0.9 percent from the previous month, and 8.2 percent above April 2021. ...The February 2022 to March 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent to up 1.4 percent.This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 1.3% in April.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 5.9% on a YoY basis. Sales growth in April were above expectations, and sales in February and March were revised up, combined.
Americans Are in a Sour Mood, But it Didn’t Dampen their Spending: Splurging at Retailers, Especially Some Retailers by Wolf Richter - Retail sales jumped 0.9% in April from March, after having jumped 1.4% in March from February, to $678 billion, and were up 8.2% from a year ago, seasonally adjusted, the Commerce Department reported today. Retail sales are sales only of goods, not services. And we’ve been seeing for months now awidespread shift in consumer spending from goods back to services, where spending had collapsed during the pandemic, but is now surging.These retail sales today confirm this trend: Despite the shift of spending to services, consumers are still spending huge amounts on goods, and growth in retail sales is somewhere near the rate of inflation, with “real” growth (adjusted for inflation) trending down, as spending on services, adjusted for inflation, more than makes up for it.Raging inflation has outpaced the income growth of many Americans, and they’re also shifting spending into services. And yet, retail sales have continued to surge, including ecommerce sales. What is fascinating, in terms of shifts, is that there is a big boom going on at bars and restaurants, and at miscellaneous stores, which prominently include cannabis retailers – where sales far outpaced the rate of inflation.This surge in sales is happening even as consumer sentiment in May has dropped to a decade low, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Overall sentiment was beaten down by worries about raging inflation that has spread across all sectors of the economy and is hitting consumers in face every day (data via St. Louis Fed and University of Michigan Survey of Consumers):It’s as if consumers are trying to overcome their grief and anger over inflation with some classic retail therapy to make them feel better — and they’re doing it in bars & restaurants, specialty stores that include cannabis stores, and with ecommerce. Other retailers are not so lucky.
Sales at New and Used Vehicle and Parts Dealers, the largest retailer category, rose by 2.2% in April from March, to $132 billion, seasonally adjusted, but were down 1.7% from a year ago. Used vehicle prices have started to tick down on a month-to-month basis, though they remain much higher than a year ago, while new vehicle prices continued to spike at record pace as new vehicle dealers are woefully low on inventory. And retail sales in dollar terms are the result of this mix:
Sales at ecommerce and other “nonstore retailers” rose 2.1% seasonally adjusted in April from March, to $107 billion, and were up 12.7% year-over-year. This is the second-largest retailer category and includes the ecommerce operations of classic brick-and-mortar retailers, such as Walmart:
Food and Beverage Stores: Sales dipped 0.2% for the month to $77 billion, seasonally adjusted, but were still up by 7.1% year-over-year, powered entirely by price increases:
Food services and drinking places: Sales at these bars, restaurants, cafes, cafeterias, etc. jumped by 2.0% for the month seasonally adjusted, to a record $84 billion, and by 19.8% year-over-year. This growth rate is nearly three times the rate of CPI inflation for “food away from home” (7.2%), which indicates that people are going out to splurge and enjoy and perhaps douse their sour mood with the appropriate liquidity, and they’re spending heroic amounts of money to do it.
General merchandise stores: Sales were essentially flat for the month, at $57 billion, seasonally adjusted, and ticked up only 0.8% from the stimulus fueled April a year ago. Walmart and Costco are in this category, but not department stores.
Gas stations: Sales fell by 2.7% for the month, on falling gasoline prices, to $62 billion, seasonally adjusted. Year-over-year, sales were still up by 36.9%, powered entirely by the year-over-year spike in gasoline prices.
Bad Breath of Inflation Sinks Target, Walmart, Other Retailers on Surging Costs of Products, Labor, and Transportation - Target reported today that its revenues, at $25.2 billion in Q1, beat by 4% the mega-stimulus-miracle Q1 last year when consumers, awash in government stimulus cash, had gone hog-wild. This was similar to Walmart, which had reported yesterday that its total revenues too beat that stimulus-miracle quarter last year by 2.4%. That’s pretty good when you think about that buy-everything craziness that reigned a year ago in the most ridiculously overstimulated economy ever. But both retailers reported that their costs surged – product costs, transportation costs, labor costs, and other costs. Target reported that its product costs jumped by 10.4%, and that selling and administration expenses rose by 5.6%; and that therefore operating income plunged by 43%, and that its operating margin (operating income divided by revenues) was only 5.3%, down from 9.9% a year ago, which was a shocker, and it blew out the fuse. Turns out, inflation is eating up retailers’ profit margins. “Throughout the quarter, we faced unexpectedly high costs, driven by a number of factors, resulting in profitability that came in well below our expectations, and well below where we expect to operate over time,” the earnings release said. Shares kathoomphed 25% during the day and afterhours to $161.61, and were down 38.8% from the peak last August: Target slashed its projection of its operating margin for the full year, squeezed further by inflation and cost increases and the supply chain chaos. It recognized that it wouldn’t be able to pass on all the cost increases it’s facing, though it would be trying. But wait… That plunge only took the share price back where it had been in May 2020 as the stimulus checks were hailing down on consumers. It just shows to what ridiculous highs these shares have been whipped and that even for viable big companies, the regression back to normal, wherever that may be, is going to be rough. Walmart reported yesterday that its gross profit decline due to “elevated supply chain costs and product mix,” with some customers shifting to lower-end products. And it said that operating expenses increased “primarily due to increased wage costs in Walmart U.S.” Revenues rose 2.4% over the stimulus-miracle Q1 last year, and that was pretty decent considering the craziness a year ago. Retail is a low-margin business, and small cost increases can wipe out much of the margin. Walmart’s cost of sales rose 3.5% and operating, selling, and administrative expenses rose 4.5%. And therefore, operating income plunged 23%, and net income plunged by 25%. Walmart’s shares dove 18% since it reported earnings yesterday and 24% since their peak on April 21. Target and Walmart are part of the retailer category “general merchandise stores,” where retail sales in April – that would the final month in most retailers’ Q1 – were very high, but were up by less than 1% from the historic stimulus-miracle April a year ago (from my report about retailers by category). Note the three giant spikes during the months when the three stimulus checks went out:
Goldman Economist Warns US Consumers Maxing Out Credit Cards Will Lead To Late 2022 Spending Collapse -- A little over a week ago, when looking at the latest consumer credit data from the Federal Reserve, we were shocked to learn that in March, credit card debt soared by a record $52.4 billion, the biggest monthly increase on record and more than double the expected change.Summarizing our views on this historic surge in credit-fueled purchases, we said that "while this unprecedented rush to buy everything on credit at a time when there were no notable Hallmark holidays should not come as much of a surprise, after all we have repeatedly shown that for the middle class any "excess savings" are now gone, long gone...... the fact is that most economists - such as those at Goldman Sachs - had previously anticipated that continued spending of savings by consumers (who they fail to realize are now tapped out) is what will keep the US economy levitating in 2022. Unfortunately, as today's consumer credit numbers clearly demonstrate, any savings that US middle class households may have stored away courtesy of stimmies, are long gone." Hilariously, yesterday it was none other than the person who in late 2021 predicted - incorrectly - that "pent up savings" would provide a major boost to the US economy in Q1 and Q2 of 2022, much to our amusement and criticism (of which we dispensed generously here)...... and who admitted that US consumers, drowning in inflation, are "already relying on leverage to some extent to fund their spending." We are talking, of course, about Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius, who no longer sees any "pent-up savings" offsetting either the fiscal or the hyperinflationary drag (unlike what he said in October) and instead speaking on Bloomberg TV, said that “borrowing is going to be a short-term driver of spending, and I think has been to some degree already." Did the explosive growth in credit card borrowing tip him off?Sarcasm aside, Hatzius was at least was correct in saying that “consumer spending is going to be relatively slow. Income is going to be quite weak in 2022” which is also why the bank slashed its GDP forecast over the weekend and now see only a 1.25% gain in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the same period of 2021.
LA Port Traffic: Imports Steady in April - Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic was unchanged in April compared to the rolling 12 months ending in March. Outbound traffic was down 0.7% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were unchanged YoY in April, and exports were down 7% YoY.This tied last year for record inbound traffic for the month of April. There is no impact - yet - on inbound traffic due to the shutdown in China.
Soaring diesel prices leave trucking's owner-operators with tough choices - Avery Vise, vice president, trucking for transport consultancy FTR, has some advice for owner-operators struggling with a massive spike in diesel fuel prices and plunging spot market rates: “There are good reasons to sell your truck and become a company driver,” Vise said.Under the circumstances, it wouldn’t be surprising if some of the 350,000 registered owner-operator drivers seek the protection of company driving, or lease their independent services to a fleet, the latter of which 44% of members of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) already do. “It’s not happening yet, but it’s coming,” said William “Lewie” Pugh, an OOIDA executive vice president who worked as a leased owner-operator for 24 years, said of free-agent independent drivers either leaving the business or deciding to change the way they operate.For owner-operators, the fat city of the past two years has lost some weight. As of this past Monday, on-highway diesel pump prices were at $5.61 a gallon nationwide, according to weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). That was down a penny a gallon from the prior week, but still at near record levels. Diesel prices in the New England and mid-Atlantic regions, which are experiencing acute shortages of diesel, continued their climb. Prices in New England hit $6.43 a gallon, according to EIA data. Prices in the mid-Atlantic were reported at $6.38 a gallon. (EIA next updates its tables late on Monday.) Meanwhile, spot prices for dry van services have collapsed, falling an eye-popping $1 per mile year-to-date, as concerns rise that the pace of the pandemic-driven pull-through of consumer buying is leveling off. According to data published Monday by KeyBanc Capital Markets, dry van spot rates, ex-fuel, are down 30% from their late 2021 peak, off 25% year-over-year and are at a 15% discount to contract rates, which typically lag spot moves by 3 to 6 months. KeyBanc Transportation Analyst Todd Fowler said spot rates could fall another 15% to 20% before reaching breakeven operating costs consistent with declines in prior cycles. The triple whammy of flattening demand, lower spot rates and spiking fuel prices means that owner-operators face a challenge not experienced since 2014, the last time U.S. oil rices, as measured by the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) energy complex, breached the $100-a-barrel level. Drivers have four options: Go on a carrier’s payroll and avoid the fuel mess, negotiate leased-driver arrangements that include fuel surcharge pass-throughs, tough it out in the hope that oil prices quickly turn south, or exit the business.
Rising diesel prices lead to layoffs in trucking industry It’s a problem many have been hearing about for months now: the high price of gas. But what many who aren’t in the industry might not realize is how the skyrocketing cost of diesel fuel, in particular, is hurting truckers.While the Energy Information Administration said gas prices are down by one penny in -- the last week, that’s not giving any relief to drivers, who say some companies are being forced to lay off employees.That’s the case for Omar Edwards of North Carolina, a truck driver who owns and operates his own company. He’s had to let some employees go, and is looking for other ways to maximize profit.“I’m heading over to Atlanta to actually pick up one of my drivers,” Edwards said. “We’re going to be team driving right now.”Speaking to NewsNation local affiliate WJZY, Edwards said this could lead to less trucks on the road.“A lot of these trucks you see now are not going to be here anymore. A lot of these trucks are a small company like myself that just can’t afford to pay these high prices,” Edwards said.AAA on Tuesday recorded a record national average of $5.57 for a gallon of diesel fuel. Part of the reason for the high gas and diesel fuel prices is the war in Ukraine, but also the rise in commercial activity.AAA spokesperson Clay Ingram said demand for diesel is going up across the country as truckers transport “more and more goods.”“People are shopping online, people are out spending money again,” he said.Maurice Burnside, owner of Phaymis Trucking Company, said on NewsNation’s “Morning in America” that his fuel costs have nearly doubled from last year— going from $10,000 to $18,000. “It’s a struggle,” he said. “The longer hauls are a bit more of a challenge. What we’ve been doing with my company, we’ve been taking shorter runs so we spend less money in diesel, but we also make less money.”
Industrial Production Increased 1.1 Percent in April --From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization In April, total industrial production increased 1.1 percent—the fourth consecutive month of gains of 0.8 percent or greater—and manufacturing output rose 0.8 percent. The index for utilities moved up 2.4 percent, and the index for mining advanced 1.6 percent. At 105.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in April was 6.4 percent above its year-earlier level.Capacity utilization climbed to 79.0 percent, a rate that is 0.5 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2021) average.This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization at 79.0% is 0.5% below the average from 1972 to 2020. This was well above consensus expectations.The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production increased in April to 105.6. This is above the February 2020 level.The change in industrial production was well above consensus expectations.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Activity Declines in May -This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -11.6 was a decrease of 36.2 from the previous month's 24.6. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 17.0.The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.Here is the opening paragraph from the report.After growing strongly last month, business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index dropped thirty-six points to -11.6. New orders declined, and shipments fell at the fastest pace since early in the pandemic. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and inventories expanded. Labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment and the average workweek. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes moved lower, but were still elevated. Looking ahead, optimism about the six-month outlook remained subdued. [Full report]Here is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator:
Philly Fed Mfg Index: Continued Expansion in May -The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a generally reliable clue as to the direction of the broader Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 2.6, down 15 from last month's 17.6. The 3-month moving average came in at 15.9, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 2.5, down from the previous month's 8.2.Here is the introduction from the survey: Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand overall this month, according to the firms responding to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current general activity index declined, while the indicators for new orders and shipments rose. The employment index decreased, and the price indexes remained elevated but edged down. The survey’s future indexes remained positive but reflect muted optimism for growth over the next six months. (Full Report)The first chart below gives us a look at this diffusion index since 2000, which shows us how it has behaved in proximity to the two 21st century recessions. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3-month moving average, which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. We can see periods of contraction in 2011, 2012, and 2015, and a shallower contraction in 2013. The contraction due to COVID-19 is clear in 2020.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 218,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending May 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 6,000 from 203,000 to 197,000. The 4-week moving average was 199,500, an increase of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,500 from 192,750 to 191,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 199,500. The previous week was revised down. Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.
Gasoline Spikes to Record $4.49, Just in Time for Summer Driving Season. Crude Oil Jumps. Not going to Help CPI in May --by Wolf Richter - Over the past seven days, the average price of all grades of gasoline spiked by another 16 cents to a record $4.49 per gallon on Monday, May 16, the fourth week in a row of increases, and was up 48.3% from a year ago, according to the US Energy Department’s EIA late Monday, based on its surveys of gas stations conducted during the day. This comes just in time for summer driving season.Not good for CPI inflation: In the still red-hot CPI for April, released last week, there was some slight cooling from March, and one of the contributors to that slight cooling was the CPI for gasoline which fell 6.1% in April from March. Well, OK, that was then and this is now.Since the end of April, the price of gasoline has jumped by 9.3%. So, gasoline will provide some additional and totally unneeded oomph for the inflation rate in May.Gasoline futures also rose to new record on Monday, closing above $4 for the first time, and were up by 16% from the end of April (chart via Investing.com): The average price of No. 2 highway diesel at the pump, after spiking by 12 cents in the prior week, dipped by a penny on Monday to $5.61 per gallon, the second highest ever, but on the long-term chart it seems the same as in the prior week. Year-over-year, the price of diesel has spiked by 73%!Consumers get to pay for diesel prices sooner or later via higher costs of the goods they’re buying since nearly all goods are sooner or later transported by truck for at least part of the way, and fuel price increases are eventually passed on. Crude oil WTI futures have now broken out of their trading range that prevailed since mid-March, following the spike in early March, and are currently at $113.82 a barrel, the highest since the brief spike in early March, but well below the tippy-top of the spike in July 2008, which maxed out for a brief moment at $150 a barrel.
Here’s why gasoline prices are spiking again - Prices at the gas pump are rising yet again as refiners turn to producing jet fuel and diesel instead of gasoline, and as demand jumps ahead of the summer driving season. Prices across the country were already high before the most recent jumps. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hit oil markets and global gas prices hard, driving up the price at the pump as governments turned away energy supplies from Moscow. But prices are now going higher, and averaged $4.48 per gallon on Monday. That’s up about 40 cents from a month ago, when prices stood at $4.08. Much of the most recent jump has come just in the past few days as prices rose 16 cents per gallon between May 9 and May 16. . Experts say the latest jump is linked to a variety of factors including fewer oil refiners making crude oil into gasoline. Prices of both diesel and jet fuel, which are also made at refineries, are spiking, and experts say many refiners are turning toward making those more profitable products. “With the market currently really tight both in diesel and jet fuel, we’re actually seeing refineries choose to make less gasoline in favor of those more profitable molecules,” said Matt Kimmel, a senior research analyst for refining and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at gas price app GasBuddy, said that even prior to the latest setbacks, recent refinery closures diminished the country’s ability to produce gasoline. In 2019, a refinery in Philadelphia caught fire; in 2020 a Canadian refinery closed because of COVID-19, and it has since been announced that it will convert into a biofuels operation; and last year, a refinery in Louisiana closed after flooding related to Hurricane Ida. “The U.S. has now a million barrels a day less of refining capacity than we did in 2019 at a time when we need every barrel of capacity,” De Haan said.
Gas prices top $4 a gallon in every U.S. state for the first time - Not too long ago in some parts of the United States, paying more than $4 for a gallon of gas was seen as a coastal problem faced by Americans in pricey big cities. But now, for the first time, the average price for a gallon of gas has surpassed $4 in all 50 states.While the national average price has been hovering at or above $4 for weeks, Georgia, Kansas and Oklahoma had yet to cross the mark, according to data tracked by AAA.But they joined the rest of the United States this week, with a gallon of gas in Oklahoma costing about $4.01 on average Tuesday, according to the AAA figures. That’s far below the average for a gallon of gas in California, which was $6.02. In Georgia, it was $4.06, and in Kansas, it was just over $4. Nationally, the average cost for a gallon of gas was $4.52 on Tuesday. California, Washington state, Oregon, Nevada, Alaska and Hawaii all had prices averaging more than $5 on Tuesday. Prices are even higher at pumps along the highway, according to datafrom the federal Energy Information Administration: In every region in the United States, it costs more than $5 per gallon to fill up near a highway. (The national highway gas price average is $5.61, up $2.36 from a year ago.)
Gas tops $6 a gallon in California: "How much pain at the pump can consumers take?" - Gas continues to reach new highs, with average prices hitting a record $4.56 a gallon on Wednesday and topping $6 a gallon in California, the state with the highest prices at the pump, according to AAA.That's taking a bite out of consumers' budgets, with the typical household spending $4,800 on gas at an annual rate — a 70% jump from a year ago, according to Wall Street economist Ed Yardeni. A year ago, households spent about $2,800 on gasoline each year, he noted in a LinkedIn post about his research. "How much pain at the pump can consumers take?" Yardeni asked. That's a question that has wide-ranging implications for the U.S. economy, given that consumer spending contributes 70% of GDP. Wages aren't keeping up with surging gas prices — as well as the highest inflation in 40 years — and some households say they're cutting back on eating out and impulse purchases as a result, according to a Harris Poll for Bloomberg News in April.Consumer sentiment dropped almost 10% in May, with Americans' assessment of their current financial situation at its lowest point since 2013, when the economy was struggling in the aftermath of the Great Recession, according to a University of Michigan survey.Yet consumers continue to spend, likely due to personal savings that grew during the pandemic, Yardeni added. During the past two years, multiple rounds of stimulus payments and cutbacks on travel and dining out, while the economy was locked down, helped bolster the personal savings rate.But there are signs that consumers' budgets are struggling to handle record gas prices and high inflation. Consumers "are charging more on their credit cards," Yardeni pointed out.And personal savings are starting to dwindle, according to a new study from Northwestern Mutual. Its survey found that 6 in 10 people built up personal savings during the past two years, with the average household reporting savings of $73,000 in 2021. But that's dropped 15% to $63,000 in 2022, the study found.
Households are now spending an estimated $5,000 a year on gasoline -U.S. households are now spending the equivalent of $5,000 a year on gasoline, up from $2,800 a year ago, according to Yardeni Research. In March, the annual rate of gasoline spending was at $3,800, Yardeni noted. During the week of May 16, the national retail price for gasoline reached a record $4.59 per gallon, the firm said. "No wonder that the Consumer Sentiment Index is so depressed. The wonder is that retail sales have been so surprisingly strong during April and May," Yardeni said in a note. Yardeni said consumers' inflation-adjusted incomes are barely growing, but they have accumulated a lot of savings, and they are charging more on credit cards. But Yardeni said don't bet against the U.S. consumer: "When we are happy, we spend money. When we are depressed, we spend even more money!" Retail sales data for April, released Tuesday, was surprisingly strong. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 8.2% for the month. Gasoline sales actually declined in April from March, as prices temporarily fell before ramping up to record levels in May. Spending on gasoline in April surged almost 37% from a year ago, according to Commerce Department data. The price of gasoline was $3.04 per gallon a year ago, according to AAA. This week, the average price rose above $4 a gallon in all 50 states, according to AAA data. The national average Wednesday was $4.57 per gallon, according to the AAA website.
Inflation Is Top Concern Among Americans As COVID Takes Last Place (see graphics) A new survey from Pew reveals that inflation is the top concern Among Americans, while COVID-19 has fallen to last place. 70% of Americans polled between April 25 and May 1 said inflation was a "very big problem," while 23% said it was a "moderately big problem." Meanwhile, just 19% said Covid was a "very big problem," while 31% said it was a "small problem." 12% said Covid was "not a problem at all." Oddly, Pew didn't ask about the war in Ukraine. When broken down by political party, inflation is the top national problem according to Republicans, while Democrats are mos concerned about gun violence, healthcare affordability and climate change. "Democrats are nearly four times as likely as Republicans to rate climate change as a very big problem (63% vs. 16%)," Pew reports. "Republicans, by contrast, are far more likely than Democrats to view illegal immigration as a very big problem (65% vs. 19%)." Over time, Americans have been caring less about Covid, unemployment, and racism. It will be interesting to see what's bothering Americans most in the next Pew poll, which will undoubtedly include a question on Roe vs. Wade in light of the leaked Supreme Court decision. For now, however...
In the face of continuing COVID pandemic: Dangerous “science experiment” being carried out on music fans, musicians by industry officials - A recent Science & Medicine article in the Los Angeles Times, “Coronavirus Today: When live music becomes a science experiment,” points to a disturbing trend: the return to “normal” in the concert world. The trend is being driven, above all, by the large conglomerates who dominate the field. The author, Times Science and Medicine editor, Karen Kaplan, first notes that “politicians on TV or Twitter” are “saying life can—and should—return to normal,” and suggests that the population may well “decide to believe them because we want them to be right.” Of course, people are not given a genuine choice in the matter. The central and overwhelming responsibility for the present state of unpreparedness lies with the government, media and corporate elite, who are engineering the “return to normal,” or desperately trying to, for their own selfish economic and political reasons. Young people are being bombarded with the message that the pandemic is over. Everyone, from President Joe Biden on down, is lying to them. Kaplan goes on to observe that the “recent Coachella and Stagecoach festivals [both held in Indio, California] provided the perfect natural experiment to test the hypothesis that if people ignore the coronavirus, it will return the favor.” The results are perfectly clear and widely reported. According to People, in fact, COVID-19 cases “jumped up 139% in the last two weeks in Riverside County, California, after hosting the 2022 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival for two weekends.” The weekly report from the Palm Springs Wastewater Treatment Plant, the magazine went on, showed “that the concentration of COVID-19 in wastewater samples have jumped up in the last week, going from an average of 360,433 copies to 617,875. The plant called it a ‘significant jump.’ The majority of cases are caused by the omicron variant.” Coachella, which took place over two weekends in April, attracted an estimated 750,000 people. “The festival is held outside, but did not require proof of vaccination, testing or masks for attendees. And throughout the two weekends, many brands like Revolve and Spotify hold their own parties at homes and venues in the area,” reported People. The Stagecoach country music festival, which “had also dropped all COVID safety precautions,” drew some 80,000 participants.
One-third of Americans new survey say pandemic is over -Nearly one in three Americans questioned in a new survey said that the COVID-19 pandemic is over, with many stating their top concern now is spreading the virus to people who are at higher risk of serious illness.In the Axios/Ipsos poll, 31 percent of respondents said that the pandemic is over and 69 percent disagreed. Perception of the pandemic varied across party lines, with 59 percent of Republicans, 27 percent of independents and 10 percent of Democrats surveyed saying the pandemic is over. Additionally, 32 percent of respondents said their top current concern with the virus is spreading it to people who are at higher risk of serious illness, which was consistent, regardless of party affiliation. Among those who were unvaccinated, 31 percent said their top concern is dealing with restrictions in their daily life. Overall, 74 percent say that the pandemic is still a problem, but manageable, while 14 percent describe it as a serious problem. As views on the pandemic begin to soften, the poll also found that people have resumed activities outside the home, with 65 percent saying they are dining out, 69 percent visiting loved ones and 61 percent going shopping. The percentages of Americans who report participating in these activities has remained unchanged since April. The poll was conducted from May 13 to May 16 among 982 adults. It has a margin of error of 3 to 3.5 percentage points.
School districts slash spending across the US - School districts across the United States are implementing deep budget cuts. Citing the drop in student enrollment—the result of the criminal response of both political parties to the pandemic—federal, state and local officials are accelerating the attack on public education. A major decline in enrollment in US public schools has taken place over the past two years. According to Return 2 Learn Tracker, a recent national survey on student enrollment, an estimated 1.2 million students have left public schools since the pandemic began. There are still no definitive studies on the causes of the sharp decline. However, large numbers of working class parents likely pulled their children out of school because they lost jobs, suffered homelessness, got sick or lost family members who cared for children. Some parents with the economic means also transferred their children to parochial and other private schools, which have largely remained open throughout the pandemic. As most public school funds are tied directly to student enrollment and attendance, districts face major budget deficits for the upcoming school years. Insufficient pandemic relief funding from the federal government has not stemmed the budget crisis. Projecting major budget deficits, districts across the US are already imposing austerity measures in the form of hiring freezes, school closures, cuts to vital services and programs including Special Education programs and English as a Second Language programs, teacher and staff layoffs, classroom consolidations and more. A snapshot of school budget cuts in several areas gives a sense of the scale of this assault.
In New York City Public Schools, the largest district in the US, over 50,000 students have left the district over the past two years. Proposals for cuts to the budget include cutting $215 million for next school year and a total of nearly $1 billion to schools over the next three years.
In Minnesota, Minneapolis Public Schools faces an estimated $27.1 million budget deficit for the upcoming school year. Citing decline in enrollment and added expenses from meager employee raises under new labor agreements, the district plans to enforce a hiring freeze, cut 5 percent from each department, and decrease allocations to school sites. The district also plans to use 78 percent of its remaining pandemic relief funds to pay salaries for the next two years.
In California, student enrollment has declined by more than 250,000 students since 2019, representing the state’s lowest public school student enrollment numbers in 20 years. In the Sacramento City Unified School District, the district voted unanimously to lay off 106 classified positions, effective since last Friday, and unilaterally extend the school year. The district has cited the cost of the below inflation rate wage increases for educators and fines from lost instruction due to the strike as basis for its estimated $38.5 million budget deficit.
San Francisco Unified School District last week rescinded hundreds of layoff notices and issued 35 layoff notices to teachers and classified staff, instead of an initial proposal of 311 layoffs back in March. The rescinding of layoffs was due in large part to a major exodus of teachers and staff from the district for the 2022–2023 school year. Since January, 68 teachers have resigned and 15 teachers retired. The district is cynically presenting these figures as a means for solving the budget crisis, but most of the vacancies will remain unfilled due to ongoing budget cuts.
Facing a $50 million budget deficit, Oakland Unified School District will carry out the closure, consolidation and merging of 11 schools in the district over the next two years, a plan which has been confronted with mass opposition from teachers, staff and families. The school board recently announced there have been 96 employee “separations” from the district since January, which include special ed teachers, counselors, psychologists, English as a second language teachers and food service staff, among others.
According to state data, Kansas public schools enrollment dropped by more than 15,000 since the start of the pandemic. The Olathe School District in Kansas City faces a $28 million deficit for next school year and has issued major cuts to the district including 140 teaching and staff positions and a hiring freeze on vacant positions.
Masks Return to Some Schools as Cases Rise – NBC Chicago - Rising COVID cases have prompted emergency meetings and the return of masks at some Chicago-area schools.The increase in metrics have prompted state health officials to encourage booster shots for those who are eligible and indoor masking.Here's what you need to know about the coronavirus pandemic across Illinois today:For the first time in more than three months, Illinois is averaging more than 6,000 new probable and confirmed COVID-19 cases per day, with hospitalizations also beginning to climb across the state.According to the latest data from the Illinois Department of Public Health, the state is averaging 6,065 new cases of COVID per day over the last week. That marks the first time the state has eclipsed the 6,000-case barrier since Feb. 9, when Illinois was still descending from the heights of its omicron-driven surge over the winter.In the last seven days, the state’s daily average of new COVID cases has gone up by 17.7%, according to IDPH officials. In the last month, cases have increased by 174%.On Monday, Illinois officials reported 5,447 new confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19, with zero new fatalities reported. You can find more data here.
Watch: Colorado School Board Cuts Off Mom For Reading Out Sex Scene From Book Available To Students - A Colorado mother was cut off at her local school board meeting after trying to read out a sexually explicit passage from a book she said was available to children in the school district. The mother, identifying herself as D. Barnes, spoke at a March 16 school board meeting for Adams 12 Five Star Schools, which serves Denver’s northeastern outskirts. She told board members that she was “very concerned” about the material that children have access to through their schooling. “I do not favor book banning,” she said to the audience, many of whom had spoken before her either in support or opposition to the district’s policy regarding “gender non-conforming” and transgender students. “But I do want to tell you that pornography does not belong in our schools.”Barnes specifically took issue with two books: “Gender Queer,” a graphic novel by Maia Kobabe, and “Lawn Boy,” a young adult novel by Jonathan Evison. She said that young children have access to these titles “via online resources that Adams 12 made possible.”“Alison Bechdel writes ‘Fun Home’ about discovering masturbation soon after her first period,” Barnes began reading from “Gender Queer.”“I discovered around the same age followed by the further realization that my ability to become aroused was governed by a strict law of diminishing returns, an elaborate fantasy based on Plato’s Symposium. The more I had to interact with my genitals, the less likely I was to reach a point of satisfaction. The best fantasy was one that did not require any physical touch at all.”She then continued to read a section detailing the use of a new sex toy and various associated quotes.It was at this point that the board decided Barnes was “out of order” and demanded she stop reading.
The pandemic changed the plans of many 2022 high school graduates -High school graduation ceremonies have begun and every speaker is certain to remind the class of 2022 how unique their experience has been. They had the heartbreaking and unprecedented experience of spending more than half their high school time under the cloud of COVID-19, much of that time not in school. How has that pandemic experience affected their plans for the future? Are these students different from the class of 2019, the last to graduate before the pandemic? What racial, ethnic, gender and other differences might there be between graduates? To get answers to these questions, YouthTruth, a national nonprofit, conducted an online survey of 28,240 high school seniors in English and Spanish. It included 271 urban, suburban and rural schools in 119 school systems across two time periods, 2021-2022 and 2018-2019. The survey incorporated an open-ended question to which 11,294 students responded: “Is there anything that you think your school should know about how this change has been for you or that your school can do to help you during this period of change?” Here are five insights from the survey:
First, nearly 1 in 3 seniors, or 28 percent, from the 2022 class changed their post-high school plans since the pandemic began, up from 18 percent in a previous survey in spring 2020. As a 12th-grade Hispanic girl wrote, “Before the pandemic I was very excited to go to college and have a full on career. Now I don’t know what to do with my life. It scares me.” High schoolers who are English language learners, members of the LGBTQ+ community, persons of color, and Hispanic students were more likely to change their plans than their peer groups.
Second, 3 out of 4, or 74 percent, of the 2022 seniors report that they want to go to college, though they’re now facing new challenges. A 12th-grade white girl wrote, “Basically, COVID has just ruined my whole life plans. Now, I won’t be able to go to college or get that job because I don’t want to be vaccinated.”Here, too, there are significant differences across student groups. Additionally, high school seniors who are Hispanic, Black, and boys are less likely to want to go to college than those who were seniors in 2019.
Third, almost half of 2022 high school seniors, or 47 percent, expect to attend a four-year college, with smaller percentages of students who are not white, don’t speak English, are boys, and qualify for free and reduced lunch expecting to do so. There are also fewer seniors considering two-year degree programs than in 2019, decreasing from 25 percent to 19 percent, though for some minority and disadvantaged groups a higher percentage of this year’s seniors report they plan to attend two-year colleges.
Fourth, fewer 2022 seniors say they participated in career counseling and college financial counseling than in 2019, with significant drops for those who are Hispanic, multi-racial, boys, and in rural schools. Overall, less than half (43 percent) feel positive about their college and career readiness. As one 12th-grader wrote, “As a senior I feel like I have not gotten the preparation I need for after I graduate.”
Fifth, this analysis looks at only those seniors who are still attending school and doesn’t include those who dropped out of high school. Of those still in school who say they are on track to graduate, nearly 2 in 10 (18 percent) say they seriously considered dropping out of high school. A higher percentage of some groups, especially LGBTQ+ youth, considered dropping out as compared to their peers.
Los Angeles teachers and support staff face June 30 contract expiration - The three-year contract between the second largest school district in the United States, the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), and the United Teachers Los Angeles (UTLA) is set to expire on June 30. The labor agreement covers 34,000 teachers and support staff. The current contract was signed after the UTLA’s betrayal of the powerful six-day strike in 2019. Forced to call the strike, the UTLA and the national American Federation of Teachers (AFT) did everything to isolate the struggle and collude with city and state Democrats to shut it down as soon as possible. The deal was rushed through without giving educators and staff sufficient time to study and discuss it.As the WSWS said at the time, 'Teachers returned to their classrooms Thursday still shocked and outraged over how the UTLA pushed through a contract that ignored their most critical demands to increase wages and school funding, reduce class sizes and stop the expansion of charter schools. One teacher described feeling like there was ‘a hole in her heart’ and reported seeing teachers crying because nothing they went on strike for was realized.”Educators and school staff are currently under an unprecedented strain, made worse by the COVID pandemic. According to a report from the National Education Association in February, 55 percent of US educators are thinking about leaving the profession earlier than planned. This adds to staff shortages, burnout and an accelerated crumbling of public education.
Two children hospitalized due to baby formula shortage - Two children were hospitalized in Tennessee this month due to the nationwide baby formula shortage, according to a Memphis hospital. The children, both of whom had “specific dietary requirements,” were hospitalized in mid-May at Le Bonheur Children’s Hospital, said Mark Corkins, division chief of pediatric gastroenterology at Le Bonheur and the University of Tennessee Health Science Center. “These are young children who have health conditions and special medical needs that have specific dietary requirements,” Corkins said in a statement obtained by The Hill. “Their bodies did not adapt well to the new formula type and they required treatment via IV fluids and supplemental nutrition.” Corkins added that pediatric experts at the hospital were “making multiple substitutions throughout a child’s care to ensure that their nutritional needs are met.” “This can be a complicated and cumbersome process and is extremely difficult for parents to navigate on their own,” he said, noting that parents should contact their child’s pediatrician in the event they have formula-related questions.
FDA moving to allow baby formulas intended for other countries to be used in US | Fox Business - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is working on allowing baby formulas intended for sale in other countries to be diverted to the U.S. in an effort to boost supplies on American store shelves amid ongoing domestic shortages, the agency's chief said Monday."Over the weekend, one of the things that we worked on continuously was putting forth a set of rules that would enable the use of formula that was intended for other countries, some of it even manufactured in the US intended for other countries," FDA Commissioner Robert Califf told CBS News when asked whether Americans struggling to find formula should be able to buy alternatives from European manufacturers. Califf explained some complexities in doing so, such as proper labeling, saying, "You can imagine that it’s really important that we make sure that the constituents – remembering that formula has over 30 different constituents that have to be in the formula – and also that the instructions for use are in English, or a language that the consumer can understand, because mixing up the formula, getting the right formula for the infant is critical." The FDA commissioner told CNN in a separate interview that he expects further details on the plan to be released by the agency by the end of the day on Monday.
Investigation launched amid second 'unusual' spike in neonatal deaths in Scotland -AN INVESTIGATION has been launched into a "very unusual" spike in deaths among newborn babies in Scotland for the second time in just six months. The alarm was raised after 18 infants died within four weeks of birth in March, causing the mortality rate to breach an upper warning threshold known as the 'control limit' which signals a potential problem.
Mortality Among White Collar Workers Jumped 24 Percent Between 2020 And 2021, Life Insurance Data Show - The increase in deaths not attributed to COVID-19 in the working-age population during the summer and into the fall of last year hit white-collar workers more than the blue- and grey-collar ones, according to life insurance data.In the white-collar sector, mortality jumped 24 percent in the period the data pertained to (April 2020-September 2021). Less than 64 percent of those were attributed to COVID-19. In the blue-collar sector, mortality increased by 19 percent, of which over 80 percent was attributed to COVID-19. Insurance company Q1 group life loss ratios vs 2019. Down from mandate death spikes but still elevated at 20%-30%. $SCI funeral contract volume was 17% above Q1 2020. $HIG 24%$LNC 32%$MET 22%$PRU 24% So looks like 20% excess deaths in Q1. As The Epoch Times previously reported, prime-age mortality was particularly elevated in the 12 months ending October 2021, where there was an excess death spike of more than 40 percent in ages ranging 18–49, compared with the same period in 2018–2019, based on death certificate data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The majority of the excess deaths weren’t attributed to COVID-19.A recent study by the Society of Actuaries (SOA), an international professional organization, corroborates the CDC data. It relies on a survey of group term life insurance providers that yielded data on claims made from 2017 to 2021 and reported to insurers by Sept. 30, 2021 (pdf).The life insurance data show an increase in excess mortality since the second quarter of 2020, along with the COVID-19 pandemic, including a particularly sharp hike in the third quarter of 2021—39 percent above what would have been expected based on 2017–2019 data. That quarter was exceptionally devastating for age groups 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, and 55–64, in which mortality soared 81 percent, 117 percent, 108 percent, and 70 percent above the baseline respectively.Deaths attributed to COVID-19 accounted for about three-quarters of the excess mortality during the 18 months the study looked at. But among those under the age of 45, COVID-19 accounted for less than 38 percent of the excess deaths, the study says.
Your Money and Your Life: Private Equity Blasts Ethical Boundaries of American Medicine --By Lynn Parramore, - Newsflash: Private equity firms– the most rapacious entities ever spawned by Wall Street — want your body. They’re already in your urinary tract and your fallopian tubes. In your dentist’s chair and your dermatologist’s office. Unbeknownst to you, these financiers track you from cradle to grave, lining their pockets through everything from fertility treatments to hospice care, all the while decimating the quality of services you receive and jacking up prices. Kids, the elderly, and the poor are especially tasty targets in their break-neck hunt for profits. They’re even coming for your pets. In her harrowing new book, Ethically Challenged: Private Equity Storms US Health Care, political scientist Laura Katz Olson documents how private equity firms are reshaping health care in the U.S., circling in to buy dentist offices, mental health facilities, autism treatment centers, rehab facilities, physician staffing services, and myriad other providers, forcing them into bare-bones, bottom-lined focused “care”. . In a nutshell, PE seeks to invest or acquire equity ownership in companies and flip them fast for a higher price. They’ll get that higher price by any means necessary – chopping staff, cutting corners, and loading the company with debt along the way. The idea is to buy, squeeze, dump, repeat. Private equity is now a major player in the health care sector, with investments accelerated in recent years at a mind-blowing pace ($100 billion in capital invested in 2018 alone). As Olson documents, PE firms taking over rehab centers will resort to a tactic known as “body brokering” – having companies pay intermediaries to lure patients in by trolling on social media, hanging out at 12-step meetings, and spinning fancy marketing campaigns. If the (often unscientific) treatments don’t work, score one for private equity! Owners aren’t liable for ineffective treatments, Olson points out, “so when patients relapse they can charge them another round.” Some of the worst players in this frightening game of human health roulette have likely already set up shop in your town. Bain Capital (hi, Mitt Romney!) swoops in on renal care, home health care, substance abuse, emergency medical transport, and hospitals. The Carlyle Group goes for dentistry, home health care, hospice, and eating disorders. KKR, one of the biggest players in the health care industry, targets physician staffing, emergency medical transport, dentistry, home health care, substance abuse, autism disorders, health information, and hospitals.
Throwing Drug Resistance for a Loop - Viruses in the herpesvirus family are leading causes of birth defects, blindness, and failed organ transplants worldwide. Antiviral drugs can combat these viruses, but patients often develop resistance to the drugs—rendering them ineffective.Now, a team of researchers at Gladstone Institutes led by Leor Weinberger, PhD, and Sonali Chaturvedi, PhD, has developed a novel class of therapeutics, called feedback disruptors, that have the potential to be resistance-proof drugs. Some viral proteins that are critical for virus growth become toxic to cells at high levels. So, these proteins turn off their own production when the level gets too high to prevent the cells they depend on from dying—a system known as a negative feedback loop.As reported in the journal Cell, feedback disruptors target and break these genetic feedback loops, causing infected cells to self-destruct and stopping infection in its tracks.“For decades, naturally abundant genetic feedback circuits have been analyzed and characterized, but how to translate these findings to medicines has remained a challenge, until now,” says Gábor Balázsi, PhD, the Henry Laufer Professor of Biomedical Engineering at Stony Brook University, who was not involved in the research. “This study shows, for the first time, that feedback circuits can be a drug target to treat viruses. This is an entirely new antiviral therapy concept that could apply broadly.”
New Research Shows Higher Risk of Developing Diabetes After Covid-19 Infection - A large new study found that people who recovered from Covid-19 within the past year are 40% more likely to receive a new diagnosis of diabetes compared to those who weren’t infected. The increased risk translates into 1% of people who have had Covid-19 developing diabetes who otherwise wouldn’t have, the study’s author says, resulting in potentially millions of new cases world-wide.
Short-term air pollution exposure heightens Covid-19 risk -- Short-term exposure to common air pollutants may heighten the odds of Covid-19 infection in young adults, researchers found in what’s billed as a first-of-its-kind study of the age group now considered primarily responsible for spreading the respiratory disease. The study, recently published online in the Journal of the American Medical Association, looked at 425 students and others in their mid-20s within an existing cohort who tested positive for the novel coronavirus.Despite “relatively low levels of air pollution exposure,” the Swedish researchers tied higher daily levels of airborne particles and black carbon to increased risk of infection in the range of 6 to 7 percent. While no such association was found for exposure for another class of pollutants known as nitrogen oxides, the results support “the broad public health benefits of reducing ambient air pollution levels,” write the authors, who work at the Stockholm-based Karolinska Institutet and other organizations in Sweden and Italy.Since first surfacing in late 2019 and then spreading worldwide, the Covid-19 pandemic has claimed more than 6.2 million lives globally, with almost a million of those deaths in the United States, according to data from the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The connection between air pollution and susceptibility to respiratory diseases like asthma and influenza is already well-established. Accordingly, the possible nexus with vulnerability to the coronavirus has garnered close scientific and media attention; it was one factor cited in EPA Administrator Michael Regan’s decision almost a year ago to launch a new review of the agency’s ambient air quality standards for soot and other types of particulate matter (Greenwire, June 11, 2021).In general, however, the more publicized studies have explored the potential connection between long-term air pollution exposure and Covid-19 deaths across populations that may number in the tens of thousands or millions of people (Greenwire, Aug. 13, 2020).While the disease is far more likely to kill older people or those with pre-existing health problems, young adults are now considered the “major spreader” of the virus, the study says. “To our knowledge, this is the first report of individual-level, short-term exposure to air pollution” linked to Covid-19 infection in that demographic group, the authors add.Taking together the findings of other research, the authors also speculate that higher levels of short-term air pollution play a role in producing symptoms among those infected with the virus rather than contributing to its transmission.
US Hits Grim Milestone Of 1 Million COVID Deaths - More than two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has hit another grim milestone. 805 days after the CDC recorded the first official Covid-19 death in the U.S. on February 27, 2020, President Biden mourned the death of one million Americans, speaking of "irreplaceable losses, each leaving behind a family, a community forever changed because of this pandemic.""As a nation, we must not grow numb to such sorrow. To heal, we must remember," Biden said in an official statement.Of course, Biden could not help but politicize the event and spin a victory lap...When President Biden took office, millions were unemployed and there was no vaccine available.The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 12, 2022Except not even the mainstream media could let that lie slide...“It’s just not true that ‘there was no vaccine available,’ at the time Biden took office,” CNN wrote.“About 3.5 million people were fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and about 19 million people had received at least one vaccine dose as of Biden’s inauguration day on January 20, 2021, according to statistics published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”And Biden's Chief Medial Adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci could not help himself, lamenting that many of those deaths could have been avoidable if only people had listened to him..."The idea of one million deaths in an outbreak is historic in nature, Dr. Fauci said in an interview with PBS, adding that "It's estimated that, if people had been vaccinated to a much greater extent right now, that vaccines would have avoided at least a quarter of those deaths, namely about 250,000,"As Statista's Felix Richter details below, after a brief respite in the spring/summer of 2021, when vaccinations and warmer weather combined to slow down the spread of the virus and consequently the number of deaths, the Delta wave that hit in late summer/early fall made things worse again. As the following chart shows, the rate of Covid deaths re-accelerated in late 2021 and early 2022, before thankfully slowing down in the last three months.
Coronavirus dashboard for May 13: the virus will gradually become less lethal – because you can only die once - COVID-19 is still a pandemic and will gradually transition to an endemic. A year ago I thought that between nearly universal vaccinations and an increasing percentage of the population already infected, the virus would wane into a background nuisance by now. No more. I am now thoroughly convinced that an unending series of variants will create continuing waves of new infections and, increasingly importantly, RE-infections. The percent of the population fully vaccinated (not even counting boosters) has come to a screeching halt at 66%. And even in jurisdictions with high percentages of vaccinated people, like Vermont, Puerto Rico, and Rhode Island, new infections have continued to run rampant (although the death numbers have steeply declined with vaccinations). Rhode Island is particularly instructive, because 35% of the population had already had *confirmed* cases of COVID two months ago (which means that probably double that percentage, or 70%, had *actually* been infected), and 83% of the population was fully vaccinated. In other words, probably 95% or more of the population had either been vaccinated or previously infected. And yet, that was no protection at all against the BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 wave that began over a month ago. Nevertheless, let’s look at the numbers. BA.2.12.1 has gradually been becoming the dominant variant, per the CDC’s variant “nowcast” through last Saturday: In about another month, BA.2.12.1 should be 90% or more of all infections. BA.2.12.1 is already dominant in NY, NJ, and PR, constituting 66% of all cases: BA.2.12.1 is also nearly half of all cases along the rest of the East Coast and, oddly, the northern Great Plains, but a much smaller percentage elsewhere, especially along the West Coast: In the bellwether jurisdictions of NY, NJ, and PR, cases are still rising by 20%-30% a week: To the extent there is good news, in most areas of Upstate New York, cases are flat or already declining. This is particularly true in the Central NY region, where BA.2.12.1 was first identified: Cases tripled between March and April, but are down 30% since then. Even at peak, cases were only about 20% of their previous Omicron peak. Nationwide cases have tripled since their bottom 5 weeks ago, but deaths have only started to rise in the past week: Deaths will probably be near 1000/day in about a month. The long term picture of deaths vs. infections shows that, with the exception of Delta, each successive wave has been *relatively* less lethal than the wave before it (thick line is deaths; thin line ins infections): This probably shows us the longer-term evolution of the virus. It will gradually move from pandemic to endemic. This is not necessarily because the virus will become intrinsically less deadly. It is more likely going to be because over time (several years) an increasing percentage of the population will finally get vaccinated, and repeated re-infections will give the population more inherent resistance. Meanwhile, the virus will continue to evolve to become ever more transmissible, as those mutations are most capable of successfully infecting the vaccinated and the previously infected population will reproduce more. Meanwhile, to be blunt, that portion of the population most susceptible to lethal outcomes, like the institutionalized elderly, will already have been killed by the virus, and they can only die once.
FDA authorizes first COVID booster for children ages 5 to 11 – NPR - The Food and Drug Administration Tuesday authorized the first COVID-19 vaccine booster for children ages 5 to 11. The authorization makes all children in that age group who received their second shot at least five months ago eligible to receive a third shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The companies requested the authorization based on a small study that the companies and FDA said demonstrated a third shot is safe and can significantly boost antibody levels, countering waning immunity and providing added protection against the virus, including the more contagious omicron variant. Until now, only children ages 12 and older and adults were eligible for a booster. "While it has largely been the case that COVID-19 tends to be less severe in children than adults, the omicron wave has seen more kids getting sick with the disease and being hospitalized, and children may also experience longer term effects, even following initially mild disease," said FDA Commissioner Robert M. Califf in a statement.. "The FDA is authorizing the use of a single booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for children 5 through 11 years of age to provide continued protection against COVID-19," Califf said. "Vaccination continues to be the most effective way to prevent COVID-19 and its severe consequences, and it is safe."
N.J. COVID cases rise amid new omicron subvariant - South Jersey is seeing a new COVID-19 case spike, as New Jersey’s infection rate outpaces that of the United States. It’s a likely sign of the increased transmissibility of the BA. 2.12.1 subvariant of omicron, which has taken off in New Jersey but has yet to become dominant in other regions of the United States, including Pennsylvania. In New Jersey and New York, the subvariant has edged out its predecessor, BA. 2, to become the dominant strain, according to CDC data — accounting for two-thirds of cases there last week. It was nearing dominance in the United States overall, but BA. 2 still accounted for just more than half of cases last week. BA. 2 overtook the original omicron strain at the end of March. New Jersey health officials are attributing the increase in cases in part to the high transmissibility of the two variants, said state health department spokesperson Donna Leusner — meaning other states could soon follow with BA. 2.12.1-driven case spikes as the subvariant takes over. “New Jersey — along with most of the Northeast and much of the country — has been experiencing an increase in case rates, and to a lesser extent, a rise in hospitalization rates,” Leusner said. “We have been seeing these increases across New Jersey, including the south.” The number of new cases has been steadily rising in Pennsylvania and New Jersey since late March, part of the BA. 2-driven increase in cases nationwide that began after the omicron surge ended. Over the last two weeks, the average number of new reported cases in the United States increased by 60%, according to New York Times data. » The Northeast has consistently seen the highest case rates in the country during this wave. Cases are increasing more steeply here now than they were in the late summer, when the delta variant was spreading. And the actual rates of infection are higher than recorded because many cases are diagnosed through at-home tests. Some public health experts have warned of a mounting wave and called for more caution, while the public and elected officials have largely resumed normal activities as if the pandemic were over. South Jersey is now seeing about 53 new reported cases a day per 100,000 people — compared to 23 and 28 in Philadelphia and the Pennsylvania suburbs, respectively, according to data analyzed by The Inquirer. COVID hospitalizations are also increasing in both Pennsylvania and New Jersey, following the steady, weekslong increase in cases. There were 308 people hospitalized in Philadelphia and its suburbs and 224 people hospitalized in South Jersey as of Monday. Pennsylvania and New Jersey have the same hospitalization rate per capita: an average of 9 people per 100,000 were hospitalized in each state as of Monday, according to the Times data. Hospitalizations have increased by 38% in New Jersey and 44% in Pennsylvania in the last two weeks, with 773 COVID patients hospitalized in New Jersey and 1,194 in Pennsylvania as of Sunday.
U.S. COVID cases at highest levels since November, while Northeast and Midwest are above delta peak - COVID cases continued to rise across the U.S. on Monday and were trending at the highest levels seen since late November around the time that South African scientists first identified the highly transmissible omicron variant which quickly became dominant around the world.Sine then, the BA.2 variant of omicron, and two other subvariants named BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1, have helped spread infections.The U.S. is averaging 90,423 cases a day, up 60% from two weeks ago, according to a New York Times tracker. Cases are higher in nearly every state, but the Northeast and Midwest are being particularly hard hit with case reports in both regions now higher than they were at the peak of last summer’s delta surge. There are concerns that case numbers are even higher, as many people are now testing at home and the data is not being collected.The country is averaging 21,547 hospitalizations a day, up 24% from two weeks ago. The daily death toll has fallen below 400 to 311 on average as the official toll counted by Johns Hopkins University gradually edges toward the one million mark. The New York Times dedicated a section to the sad news on Sunday.New York City is approaching a COVID alert level of “high,” according to an advisory from the health department on Monday, that urges New Yorkers to again wear face mask in indoor settings. For now, the city’s alert level remains “medium,” but cases are rising. Health Commissioner Dr. Ashwin Vasan said people at high risk of severe illness should avoid crowded settings and limit get-togethers. There are growing concerns that Congress has not been able to agree on funds to cover the costs of the next phase of the pandemic, raising the troubling issue of potential rationing of vaccines, Politico reported.Senate Republicans have pushed back for weeks, seeking that President Joe Biden first agree to end COVID-era border restrictions, even as Biden’s team has warned that as many as 100 million Americans could become infected this fall and winter.“All that needs to happen is to have a variant emerge that’s highly infectious and causes more morbidity and mortality and we’re back to Ground Zero,” Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, told Politico. “We have not finished the job.”
L.A. coronavirus hospitalizations start rising again - Los Angeles County’s coronavirus-positive hospitalizations are rising again, causing health officials to urge residents to put masks back on if they have stopped doing so. L.A. County already requires mask-wearing on public transit and at its airports, and Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer urged residents Monday to wear masks inside schools, stores and workplaces. “This would give us a chance at slowing down spread while we continue to increase the numbers of residents and workers up to date with their vaccinations, since vaccines give us the most protection from severe illness and death,” Ferrer said in a statement. Ferrer has strongly recommended indoor mask use ever since the L.A. County Department of Public Health ended its 7½-month universal mask order on March 4. But Ferrer’s message seemed to take a more urgent tone Monday, with coronavirus-positive hospitalizations rising 29% in the last week, to 312 as of Sunday. CALIFORNIA The fight against COVID, a chaplain says, unfolded on ‘sacred ground’ May 15, 2022 The 29% week-over-week increase in coronavirus-positive hospitalizations was the highest weekly percentage increase in L.A. County since mid-January, after the Omicron surge peaked. Still, the numbers of coronavirus-positive hospitalizations remain low. Daily reported COVID-19 deaths in L.A. County also remain low, at about eight deaths a day. “While it is reassuring to note the relatively low rates of hospitalizations and deaths, getting infected for many is still very risky and something to be avoided wherever possible,” Ferrer said. “As has been true throughout the pandemic, keeping others safe often requires that many of us align with sensible safety measures.” The numbers follow increasing coronavirus cases, which rose to more than 2,900 cases a day, a rate not seen since late February. That’s up 16% over the prior week’s rate of about 2,500 cases a day. The latest case rate is equivalent to 204 cases a week for every 100,000 residents, according to a Times analysis. That means L.A. County is on track to be officially moved from having a low COVID-19 community level to a medium level by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention soon. At a medium COVID-19 community level, the CDC recommends that people vulnerable to severe illness from COVID-19 consider wearing masks. It’s more lax guidance than that issued by L.A. County and California health officials, who have strongly recommended continued use of masks in indoor public settings since mandatory mask orders ended. Factors in the increase in viral transmission have been decreased use of masks and the introduction of even more contagious Omicron subvariants. The Omicron subvariant BA.2 is more transmissible than the earliest Omicron version that dominated in the winter, BA.1. BA.2 now accounts for about 85% of analyzed coronavirus specimens. In addition, there are additional Omicron subvariants that are believed to be more contagious than BA.2 that are being seen more often. BA.2.12.1 now accounts for about 12% of analyzed coronavirus samples in L.A. County, as of mid-April, and BA.2.3 and its relatives account for about 9% of samples. The nation is in the grips of a new wave related to the Omicron subvariants BA.2 and BA.2.12.1, . But the official report of 90,000 coronavirus cases a day nationally — double the rate from three weeks ago — “belies the real toll of the current wave, since most people with symptoms are testing at home or not testing at all,”
Hospitalizations, COVID wastewater levels creeping up in Minnesota - Rising COVID-19 hospitalizations have put nine greater Minnesota counties in the federal high-risk pandemic category, though doctors continue to report mostly mild or even incidental infections among their inpatient cases. The relative lack of severe cases among the 391 COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota on Thursday remained the silver lining among otherwise worsening pandemic trends. The updated risk assessment by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday night put the seven-county Twin Cities metro area at moderate COVID-19 risk along with 21 other Minnesota counties. Mask-wearing is recommended in public indoor spaces in Minnesota's nine high-risk counties — Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Lake of the Woods, Olmsted, Rice, Roseau, Wabasha and Winona — to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Mask-wearing and avoiding large groups in poorly ventilated indoor spaces are logical protective steps right now, said Dr. Andrew Badley, an infectious disease specialist at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, which is in the middle of the high-risk cluster. "The number of people who are contacting me or my colleagues for advice is going up through the roof and that is always a harbinger of things to come," he said. The viral load increased 17% over the past week in sewage samples from the Metropolitan Wastewater Treatment Plant in St. Paul, and Friday's report showed a shift in the type of coronavirus at work. The fast-spreading BA.2.12.1 variant, responsible for heightened pandemic activity in the northeastern U.S. this spring, accounted for 36% of the viral load in wastewater over the past week. That's an increase from 18% over the previous week. Infection numbers have been rising as well. The Minnesota Department of Health reported another 2,919 cases Friday, which doesn't include the commonly used at-home rapid antigen tests. The state on Friday also reported 12 COVID-19 deaths after reporting 11 on Thursday — the first back-to-back double-digit counts in weeks. Eleven of the 12 newly reported deaths were among seniors, reflecting a shift in trend.
COVID-19 wastewater rates in Maine keep rising alongside hospitalizations - Wastewater concentrations of COVID-19 in Maine’s most populous counties continued to increase last week, suggesting the virus is not letting up with hospitalizations surging. The latest reports are concerning because wastewater is considered a leading indicator of cases. An uptick beginning in April preceded the hospitalization surge. The rise of concentrations in Maine’s large population centers suggests the virus situation could worsen. Wastewater in York, Cumberland and Androscoggin counties show levels of COVID-19 at the highest they have been since early February, according to monitoring by the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Biobot. Aroostook County continued to report the highest levels in the state. The rising levels come as daily COVID-19 hospitalizations in Maine have more than doubled in the past month, up to 219 as of Monday. The state also reported 38 patients in critical care and four on ventilators. The seven-day case COVID-19 case rate in Maine has also continued to rise, although the official case rate likely represents an undercount in part because of increased use of at-home testing. Health officials have pointed to wastewater testing as a useful gauge of COVID-19 trends both in Maine and across the U.S. because it is not affected by individual testing levels. Wastewater testing in Maine has shown rising levels of COVID-19 across most of the state since early April. Although levels have continued to rise in cities such as Lewiston and Portland, worsening trends across the U.S. mean those municipalities no longer rank as poorly compared to the national average of sites measured by Biobot as they did a few weeks ago.
Boston COVID Wastewater Data Surges Up – NBC Boston (graphs) As COVID-19 cases continue to rise in Massachusetts, wastewater data shows levels continuing to climb upward. Experts have said tracking wastewater data may be a more accurate indicator of the prevalence of the virus than case counts, with more people using at-home test kits and leaving results unreported to health authorities. The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority's tracking system, run by Cambridge-based Biobot, works by analyzing bits of genetic material in the Boston area's sewers to indicate how much of the virus is circulating in the community. The data for Boston is collected from the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority's Deer Island wastewater treatment plant and analyzed by Cambridge-based Biobot Analytics three to seven times a week. As of data with sampling collected through Friday, the Northern system, which includes Boston and surrounding northern communities was reporting a seven-day average around 1,000 RNA copies/mL. The Southern system average, representing the communities just south of Boston, was coming in around 1,100 copies/mL. The last time Boston saw levels in this range was in February, and reflects levels previously only seen during winter month peaks. During the peak of the omicron surge, levels averaged just under 9,000 in the Northern System and over 11,000 in the neighboring Southern System. Wastewater data has been found to be a leading indicator during the pandemic, giving an early warning for new waves. COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have been trending up in recent weeks. On Friday the state reported 4,654 new cases, 729 people hospitalized for COVID-19 (with 223 of them being primary cases) and nine new deaths.
Ohio hits nearly 20,000 new COVID-19 cases, 7th straight weekly increase – The Ohio Department of Health on Thursday reported 19,536 new COVID-19 cases for the past week, extending a streak of week-over-week increases to seven.This week followed last week’s theme, again reporting over 10,000 cases. The 21-day daily average — now at 2,215 — has now eclipsed 2,000. The average has increased from the week prior when it was 1,700. Over the past seven days, the state averaged about 2,790 new coronavirus cases, the highest rate since Feb. 22. Cases are up 22% over last week.Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff acknowledged the consistent rise in cases during his Wednesday COVID-19 press conference. He noted some possibilities about the new data, but also reminded the state that current case totals are a fraction of what they were in January."Some of this is because fewer people are now getting tested, or they're not reporting their test results, that is certainly a factor," Vanderhoff said. "But even taking that into account, it's clear from looking at the numbers that we're still doing well when it comes to the volume of severe disease we're dealing with." ODH began reporting COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccinations weekly instead of daily in mid-March after new infections slowed to a low level after the omicron wave. Although cases are ticking up and more people are being hospitalized with the virus, fewer people are dying from it. The 473 hospitalizations reported by ODH in the past seven days (about 68 per day) are up from 353 last week and 296 two weeks ago. 40 more Ohioans died of COVID-19 in the past week, a decrease from 57 deaths last week, 65 deaths two weeks ago, 68 deaths three weeks ago, and 94 deaths a month ago.
COVID cases surging in Utah. Cases expected to increase for 4 weeks - COVID-19 is surging again in Utah and cases will likely keep climbing at least through mid-June, an Intermountain Healthcare infectious diseases physician warned Thursday.“We’re in a surge phase again,” Dr. Brandon Webb told reporters during a virtual news conference after the Utah Department of Health reported 4,504 new COVID-19 cases in the past week, along with another 148 hospitalizations and four additional deaths from the virus.“I’m not surprised by the report of today’s numbers. I think it’s a significant undercount,” Webb said, given the jump in the test positivity rate, to nearly 19% when multiple tests by an individual are excluded, from just under 15.5% last week.The test positivity for children in Utah has also increased, “probably fivefold over where it was at its lowest, in early April,” said Dr. Andrew Pavia, chief of the Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at University of Utah Health and director of Hospital Epidemiology at Intermountain Primary Children’s Hospital.Pavia told reporters at the news conference that it’s difficult to track case rates among children since most parents test their children at home for COVID-19 “so they’re not showing up in the numbers.” The results of home tests are not reported to the state.What’s most worrying to Pavia about the latest surge is the impact on patient care as hospitals, already “pretty full with run-of-the-mill patients,” are now having to deal with “a major staff shortage” due to health care workers calling in with COVID-19.Both Pavia and Webb said vaccinations and booster shots are key to preventing severe cases of COVID-19, including in children 5-11 who were just approved for the extra dose Thursday, especially if its likely immunity from the initial doses of vaccine as well as any previous infection has waned.Because of what newer versions of the omicron variant of the virus that fueled last winter’s record-breaking surge are doing in other parts of the country, Webb said Utah can expect COVID-19 cases “to continue to rise for at least another four weeks or so.”Neither Webb nor Pavia wanted to predict what COVID-19 might look like in the fall, although Pavia said when everyone starts spending more time indoors, including children returning to the classroom, they may be more susceptible and cases could be going up yet again.About a third of Americans, mainly in the Northeast, are currently living in high transmission areas for the virus, up from about a quarter of the nation’s population last week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The federal agency is urging people in those areas to consider wearing masks in indoor public places.So far, the CDC shows only one Utah county, Summit, above a low risk of transmission. The Utah Department of Health was waiting Thursday for the federal agency’s map to be updated to see if other counties would join Summit, now considered to have a medium transmission level.
'Hyper-contagious' BA.4, BA.5 COVID variants confirmed in Minnesota - And just like that the newest relatives of the omicron family have officially arrived in Minnesota. Last week, Bring Me The News reported that subvariants known as BA.4 and BA.5, which were first discovered in South Africa, were detected in Twin Cities wastewater. Now they've been identified through genomic sequencing, confirming their presence in Minnesota. Through May 17, four cases of BA.4 and one case of BA.5 were confirmed through testing. Only one of the five cases was a person living in the Twin Cities metro area. Preliminary studies focused on BA.2.12.1,, BA.4 and BA.5 have found that all three mutants are capable of infecting a person who is vaccinated and boosted, or has been infected previously by the original omicron virus (BA.1) or the first spinoff, BA.2. All three are believed to more transmissible than BA.2, though there is no indication that they cause more severe disease. "Those are hyper-contagious," said Dr. Gregory Poland, head of Mayo Clinic's Vaccine Research Group, in a podcast recorded May 13. "What's driving this," Poland continued, "is people pretending that the pandemic is over and not wearing masks." He added that waning immunity and people failing to stay up to date with booster shots is also helping omicron constantly evolve. "BA.4 and BA.5 escape – not entirely, but very efficiently – that immunity," said Poland. "We can expect that, just like omicron started in South Africa, we can expect that will come on the heels of these BA.2 subvariants." The dominant variant in Minnesota is currently BA.2, though wastewater data from the Metropolitan Council indicates that BA.2 is being replaced by BA.2.12.1, of which there have been 131 confirmed cases in Minnesota. But don't be fooled by there only being five confirmed BA.4/BA.5 cases and 131 BA.2.12.1 in Minnesota. Those numbers are likely far higher but impossible to prove in entirety because more people are testing at home, meaning fewer samples undergo genomic sequencing. According to Mayo Clinic, wastewater data is the best indicator for what's happening in a given community or state. As of May 16, 56% of wastewater samples tested by the Metropolitan Council were BA.2.12.1, while 32.4% were BA.2. A month ago (on April 20) BA.2 accounted for 80% of wastewater samples and just 10% were BA.2.12.1. "Because the majority of testing is being done at home, we can no longer tell you accurately about the positivity rate for a given community or a given state like we used to be able to," said Poland.
Coronavirus dashboard for May 20: signs of a peak in BA.2.12.1 in bellwether jurisdictions; is BA.4/BA.5 next? --Nationwide cases (thin line below) have increased about 3.5x from their bottom of roughly 26,700 five weeks ago, to just over 100,000. Meanwhile deaths (thick line) appear to still be in the process of making a bottom at under 300 per day: A longer term perspective shows that, compared with the Omicron peak, both deaths and cases are comparatively very low: The CDC variant update shows that, as of last week, the BA.2.12.1 variant was causing just under 50% of cases nationwide. Its share has been increasing by only about 6%-7% per week nationwide in the past month: As usual, different regions of the country show very different progress of the BA.2.12.1 variant: NY, NJ, and PR remain the epicenter, with BA.2.12.1 constituting a majority of cases along the rest of the East Coast and, surprisingly, in the central Plains. Meanwhile it constitutes a distinct minority of cases along the West Coast. Focusing on the bellwether region, in NY, NJ, and PR, BA.2.12.1 made up almost 75% of cases last week: And this week showed the first signs that BA.2.12.1 cases are peaking in the Northeast and portions of the upper Midwest that also began to rise early this spring: Puerto Rico has been particularly hard hit, so I am showing it separately, but it too is apparently peaking: New Jersey has still been rising, with a possible peak beginning to form in the past few days: With the exception of PR, where cases increased 30x, and Vermont, where cases only increased roughly 2.5x, the other bellwether States increased roughly 5x from their March bottoms to their present peaks. If we extrapolate the experience of the bellwether jurisdictions to the rest of the country, we can expect cases to continue to rise for about another month, with a peak of about 140,000 -150,000 cases. A similar increase in deaths would put a peak of roughly 1400-1600/day in about 2 months. With ever more evidence that reinfections are becoming common, plus plenty of evidence that the Omicron variants can break through vaccinations (although it must be emphasized that cases in vaccinated people are typically much milder, with much less risk of poor outcomes), we meanwhile await the inevitable next variant, which may or may not be the BA.4 and BA.5 lineages from South Africa, which are now being found in almost every State albeit in very small amounts.
European CDC Calls Omicron BA.4, BA.5 Covid-19 Variants Of Concern - When something goes from being of interest to being a concern, it’s usually taken a turn for the worse. On May 12, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reclassified the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants of the Covid-19 coronavirus as variants of concern (VOC), up from being variants of interest (VOI). This shouldn’t be a cause for panic, as public health authorities will rarely say, “OK, everyone, it’s time to panic.” However, as the label implies, these new variants should indeed be of concern and a reminder to maintain Covid-19 precautions such as wearing face masks while in indoor public areas.This recent leveling up of BA.4 and BA.5 occurred because these two Omicron sub-lineages seem to be spreading more readily and rapidly than earlier versions of the Omicron variant, specifically BA.1 and BA.2. For example, in Portugal, the percentage of BA.5 cases relative to BA.2 ones has been increasing at a 13% rate each day. Portugal’s ditching of many Covid-19 precautions certainly hasn’t helped. This rate is expected to allow the BA.5 to go from currently being about 37% of all Covid-19 cases in Portugal to the being the dominant “alpha-dog” variant in the country by May 22, 2022.Such a rise to dominance is essentially what’s already happened in South Africa. The BA.4 and BA.5 were initially detected in that country in January and February of 2022, respectively. Both subvariants then just kept spreading, just kept spreading with theBA.5 growing at a 12% rate over BA.2 each day. Eventually, BA.4 and BA.5 became the leading versions of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in South Africa. And as has been seen throughout much of the pandemic, what happens in South Africa rarely stays in South Africa. With new variants continuing to emerge, you may be wondering what exactly it takes to go from being a VOI to being a VOC? Well, it’s not all about that bass. Rather, it’s all about the evidence, you know that stuff that you should actually have in hand before blurting out any claims about Covid-19. According to the ECDC, a variant becomes a VOI when “evidence is available on genomic properties, epidemiological evidence or in-vitro evidence that could imply a significant impact on transmissibility, severity and/or immunity, realistically having an impact on the epidemiological situation in the EU/EEA. However, the evidence is still preliminary or is associated with major uncertainty.” A VOI becomes a VOC when “clear evidence is available indicating a significant impact on transmissibility, severity and/or immunity that is likely to have an impact on the epidemiological situation in the EU/EEA.” The addition of BA.4 and BA.5 essentially males the ECDC list of VOCs a “Party of Five.” This awful party includes the all-too-familiar Delta variant along with four different Omicron subvariants: BA.1, BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5.
Two types of Omicron classified as Covid variants of concern in UK - Two types of the Omicron known as BA.4 and BA.5 have been labelled as variants of concern in the UK after new evidence on their growth, officials have revealed.The wave of Omicron that hit the UK over the winter involved a form of the virus known as BA.1, with the sub-lineage BA.2 driving a subsequent wave in spring 2022.While the latest data from the Office for National Statistics, released on Thursday, reveals that BA.2 remains dominant in the UK, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has revealed that two further Omicron sub-lineages, BA.4 and BA.5, have been added to the list of “variants of concern”. BA.4 and BA.5 are currently fuelling a new wave of Covid in South Africa. Dr Meera Chand, UKHSA director of clinical and emerging infections, said the reclassification reflects emerging evidence on the growth of BA.4 and BA.5 internationally and in the UK.“Whilst the impact of these variants is uncertain, the variant classification system aims to identify potential risk as early as possible,” she said.“UKHSA is undertaking further detailed studies. Data and analysis will be released in due course through our regular surveillance reporting.”According to the UKHSA, as of Thursday there had been 115 confirmed cases of BA.4 and 80 cases of BA.5 in the UK. However, a report by the agency reveals modelling suggests they have a growth advantage over BA.2, including in the UK. In other words they could end up outcompeting the current dominant form of the coronavirus.While the report cautions there is a higher degree of uncertainty, a preprint from a team including Prof Tulio de Oliveira, director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation at Stellenbosch University, suggested BA.4 and BA.5 appear to have a similar growth advantage over BA.2 as it had over BA.1.The UKHSA noted that while there can be several reasons for a growth advantage, it appears a degree of immune escape is likely contributing in the case of BA.4 and BA.5.Research has previously shown the BA.4 and BA.5 have the same mutations in their spike protein – the part of the virus that helps it to enter cells. Among their mutations are those that may help them dodge the body’s immune responses, including one found in the Delta variant called L452R.The UKHSA said that, at present, there is no data to determine the impact of BA.4 and BA.5 on the hospital admissions in the UK.However, experts in South Africa have previously suggested there is little indication these new sub-lineages will be more severe than other Omicron sub-lineages, a view that has been echoed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).“Based on the limited data currently available, no significant increase in infection severity compared to the circulating lineages BA.1 and BA.2 is expected,” the ECDC stated last week. “However, as in previous waves, if Covid-19 case numbers increase substantially, some level of increased hospital and ICU admissions is likely to follow.”
Covid Scotland: BA.4 and BA.5 could drive 'significant' increase in cases - TWO new Covid strains have been designated as 'variants of concern' amid signs that they can dodge immune protection, including reinfecting people who previously had Omicron infections. The variants - known as BA.4 and BA.5 - were first detected in South Africa in January and February respectively, and have since become the dominant strains in the country. It is the first time since Omicron emerged at the end of November that a new Covid variant has been classified as a variant of concern. According to the World Health Organisation, BA.4 has been detected in at least 16 countries and BA.5 in 17 countries. Both have been identified in small numbers in the UK. BA.5 has been making up an increased proportion of cases in Portugal in recent weeks, with the Portuguese National Institute of Health estimating that the strain already accounted for approximately 37% of positive cases by May 8. It is expected to become Portugal's dominant variant by May 22. READ MORE: Herd immunity appears to have been reached - but how long will it last? Scottish Government epidemiologists previously warned that holidaymakers returning from abroad this summer were likely to seed a new Covid wave. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), which upgraded BA.4 and BA.5 from variants under investigation (VUI) to variants of concern (VoC) late on Friday, said preliminary studies "show a significant change in antigenic [immune response] properties of BA.4 and BA.5 compared to BA.1 and BA.2, especially compared to BA.1". The original Omicron strain which spread in the UK in the run up to Christmas is known as BA.1, but it has since been overtaken by the sublineage BA.2 which drove the most recent Covid wave in the UK.
More than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths in New Zealand - This week New Zealand’s total COVID-19 death toll passed 1,000, reaching 1,039 today. The stark reality is that hundreds and hundreds of people are dead who would still be alive if the Labour Party-led government had maintained its zero COVID policy, instead of switching to the homicidal program of mass infection. Acting on the instructions of the corporate and financial elite, the government has put an end to lockdowns and reopened all schools and nonessential businesses. As in every country, the pro-capitalist trade unions played a key role in preventing any organised opposition from the working class to this criminal agenda. Last October, when Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced the change in policy—without any pretence of consulting the population, and going against the advice of public health experts—New Zealand had recorded only 32 deaths from the pandemic. Since then, the toll has increased about thirty-fold. The vast majority of the country’s infections and deaths took place following the start of the school year in February. More than 1 million COVID-19 cases have been officially recorded, that is, one in five people, but disease modeller Dion O’Neale told Radio NZ this week that “probably by this point around half of the population, very roughly, have been infected.” As in every country except China, there is no effort made to systematically test non-symptomatic people. Testing is now being left up to individuals, who must obtain their own, notoriously unreliable, rapid antigen test kits. On May 14, Ardern herself tested positive for COVID and went into isolation, after her partner tested positive about a week earlier. The government’s response to the surging death toll was grotesque. In a statement on May 18, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins dishonestly declared, “We recognise the pain of losing a family member or friend, and do not wish to diminish that.” He then proceeded to boast about New Zealand’s relatively low number of deaths. He claimed that the death rate in New Zealand has not exceeded that of the previous two years of the pandemic, and “this reflected the benefits of our COVID-19 response in reducing exposure to the virus and protecting our more vulnerable New Zealanders.” Associate Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall added that “if New Zealand had a similar rate of COVID-19 mortality as the United States, we would be reporting approximately 15,000 deaths from COVID-19 today.”
WHO confirms 80 cases of monkeypox with outbreaks in 11 countries - The World Health Organization has confirmed about 80 cases of monkeypox with recent outbreaks reported in 11 countries, according to a statement Friday from the global health agency. The outbreaks are unusual because they are occurring in countries where the virus is not endemic, according to the WHO. More cases will likely be reported in the coming days as surveillance broadens, it said. "WHO is working with the affected countries and others to expand disease surveillance to find and support people who may be affected, and to provide guidance on how to manage the disease," the agency said. European nations have confirmed dozens of cases in the largest outbreak of monkeypox ever on the continent, according to the German military. The U.S. has confirmed at least one case, and Canada has confirmed two. Monkeypox is usually found in Central and West African rainforests where animals that carry the virus live, according to the WHO. Monkeypox is a disease caused by a virus in the same family as smallpox but is not as severe, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However, monkeypox can result in death in as many as 1 in 10 people who contract the disease based on observations in Africa, according to the CDC. The smallpox vaccine is 85% effective at preventing monkeypox based on observational studies in Africa, according to the WHO and the CDC. Monkeypox is spread through close contact with people, animals or material infected with the virus. It enters the body through broken skin, the respiratory tract, the eyes, nose and mouth. Though human-to-human transmission is believed to occur through respiratory droplets as well, that method requires prolonged face-to-face contact because the droplets cannot travel more than a few feet, according to the CDC. Monkeypox usually begins with symptoms similar to the flu including fever, headache, muscle aches, chills, exhaustion and swollen lymph nodes, according to the CDC. Within one to three days of the onset of fever, patients develop a rash that begins on the face and spreads to other body parts. The illness usually lasts for about two to four weeks. "As monkeypox spreads through close contact, the response should focus on the people affected and their close contacts," the WHO said. Health-care workers, household members and sexual partners of people who have the virus are at greater risk of disease.
What is monkeypox and what do we know about the cases in the U.K. and Europe? -There's a monkeypox outbreak in the United Kingdom, Portugal, Spain and other European countries. The outbreak is small — so far about 80 suspected cases, including nine in England, 17 in Canada, and 23 in Spain. There are also cases in Portugal, Sweden, Italy and France. Two suspected cases have also been reported in the U.S. But health officials have little clue where people caught the monkeypox virus. And there's concern the virus may be spreading through the community — undetected — and possibly through a new route of transmission. "This [outbreak] is rare and unusual," epidemiologist Susan Hopkins, who's the chief medical adviser of the U.K. Health Security Agency (UKHSA), said in a statement on Monday. "Exactly where and how they [the people] acquired their infections remains under urgent investigation," the agency said in the statement. Monkeypox can be a nasty illness; it causes fever, body aches, enlarged lymph nodes and eventually "pox," or painful, fluid-filled blisters on the face, hands and feet. One version of monkeypox is quite deadly and kills up to 10% of people infected. The version currently in England is milder. Its fatality rate is less than 1%. A case generally resolves in two to four weeks. Typically, people catch monkeypox from animals in West Africa or central Africa and import the virus to other countries. Person-to-person transmission isn't common, as it requires close contact with bodily fluids, such as saliva from coughing or pus from the lesions. So the risk to the general population is low, the U.K. health agency notes. But in England, 7 of the 8 cases don't involve recent travel to Africa, suggesting the patients involved in those cases caught the virus in England. On top of that, those individuals haven't had contact with the one patient known to have traveled to Nigeria, the UKHSA reported Tuesday. Together, this data suggests the virus is spreading in the community undetected. "Presumably this is cryptic spread from an imported case(s)," virologist Angie Rasmussen of the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization tweeted on Monday. In the U.S., the patient in Massachusetts had not recently traveled to countries where the disease occurs but had visited Canada. In addition, there's evidence the virus could be spreading through a new route: sexual contact. "What is even more bizarre is finding cases that appear to have acquired the infection via sexual contact," epidemiologist Mateo Prochazka at the UKHSA tweeted. "This is a novel route of transmission that will have implications for outbreak response and control." "We are particularly urging men who are gay and bisexual to be aware of any unusual rashes or lesions and to contact a sexual health service without delay," epidemiologist Hopkins said in the UKHSA's statement. Scientists at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are watching the outbreak in Europe closely. "We do have a level of concern that this is very different than what we typically think of from monkeypox," Jennifer McQuiston, a senior CDC official, told health news site STAT on Tuesday.
Over 100 monkeypox infections detected in 10 countries as unprecedented outbreak spreads globally - An unprecedented outbreak of monkeypox virus has officially spread to 10 countries outside of Africa, with 107 confirmed or suspected cases reported as of this writing, in the United Kingdom (9 cases), Portugal (34), Spain (32), France (1), Belgium (2), Sweden (1), Italy (3), Canada (22), the United States (2), and Australia (1). Much remains unknown about what is causing the outbreak, which is the most geographically dispersed and rapidly spreading monkeypox outbreak since the virus was first discovered in 1958. In the coming days and weeks, more data and scientific understanding will emerge, but already there is profound concern within the scientific community and among the public, which has found wide expression on social media. In preliminary posts, scientists speculate that the virus, which is endemic in parts of Africa, could have evolved to become more contagious and better suited to human-to-human transmission. In addition, nearly all people under 42 years old have not received a smallpox vaccine (which is 85 percent effective at preventing monkeypox infection) since smallpox was eradicated in 1980. As a result, they have no immunity, and younger adults can be infected as easily as children. Since 2017, annual monkeypox cases have been steadily rising in Africa. On May 13, the World Health Organization (WHO) was first notified of two confirmed and one probable case of monkeypox in the same household in the UK. A British citizen who traveled to Nigeria developed a classic monkeypox rash on April 29, and subsequently returned to the UK on May 4, is considered a likely index case. Upon his return, he was immediately isolated and contact tracing identified chains of transmission, though health authorities indicated that onward risk of infections from this case is minimal. The source of infection in Nigeria has not been determined. Regarding the UK cases, the WHO has stated, “In contrast to sporadic cases with travel links to endemic countries, no source of infection has been confirmed yet. Based on currently available information, infection seems to have been locally acquired in the United Kingdom.” The emergence of multiple cases across different countries is deeply problematic. Dr. Jennifer McQuiston, the Deputy Director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) division of high consequences pathogens and pathology, told STAT News, “Given that we have seen now confirmed cases out of Portugal, suspected cases out of Spain, we’re seeing this expansion of confirmed and suspect cases globally, we have a sense that no one has their arms around this to know how large and expansive it might be. And given how much travel there is between the United States and Europe, I am very confident we’re going to see cases in the United States.”
Monkeypox: CDC monitors 6 people in US for possible rare infection, says public 'should not be concerned' - Officials at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are closely tracking recent clusters of monkeypox infections around the world -- and possible cases in the United States.Currently, the CDC is monitoring six people in the United States for possible monkeypox infections after they sat near an infected traveler who had symptoms while on a flight from Nigeria to the United Kingdom in early May.Separately, CDC officials also are investigating a case of monkeypox confirmed in a man in Massachusetts who had recently traveled to Canada. And in New York City, one patient has tested positive for orthopoxvirus, the family of viruses to which monkeypox belongs, NYC health officials announced in a news release Friday.The case is being treated as a "presumptive positive" case until confirmed pending CDC testing and the patient is currently isolating, the release states.New York City health officials had also tested one other patient for monkeypox, but that case has been ruled out, health officials said. City officials have been working with state authorities from the New York State Department of Health in their investigation of the two cases, both of which were identified Thursday.New York State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary T. Bassett said in a statement Friday that "the current risk to the public is low.""Reports of suspected cases of monkeypox in the United States and elsewhere are concerning. While a possible case in New York State awaits confirmatory testing by our local and federal partners, the Department has alerted health care providers in New York State so that they can consider this unusual diagnosis if their patients present with symptoms," Bassett said. Meanwhile, recent monkeypox infections have been identified in several other regions around the world where the virus is not usually common, including Canada, Great Britain, Italy, Northern Ireland and Spain."We have a level of scientific concern about what we're seeing because this is a very unusual situation. Monkeypox is normally only reported in West Africa or Central Africa, and we don't see it in the United States or in Europe -- and the number of cases that are being reported is definitely outside the level of normal for what we would see," Jennifer McQuiston, deputy director of the Division of High Consequence Pathogens and Pathology within the CDC's National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, told CNN on Thursday.
Monkeypox and Legionnaires’ disease: New York City gets double whammy of new health scares - With COVID-19 cases surging again, monkeypox and Legionnaires’ disease have also emerged in recent days as new health scares facing New York City.New York City’s Department of Health and Mental Hygiene confirmed on Friday evening that it is awaiting results from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirming a possible monkeypox case from a patient who tested positive for Orthopoxvirus. Monkeypox is part of the Orthopoxvirus family of contagions.This patient, according to the Health Department, is currently in isolation, and the agency is now conducting contact tracing as an extra precaution. One other New York City patient suspected of contracting monkeypox has been ruled out.Over the past week, Massachusetts and several European countries detected cases of monkeypox — a rare illness that can be spread through close contact with an infected person or animal. Individuals who experience flu-like symptoms with swelling of their lymph nodes and develop rashes on their faces and body should contact their physician immediately.Meanwhile, the Health Department is also dealing with a Legionnaires’ disease cluster outbreak in Bronx.At least four people in Highbridge (ZIP codes 10452 and 10456) have tested positive for the bacterial infection since May 9, with tests of additional patients still pending.Legionnaires’ disease is a form of pneumonia caused by the Legionella bacteria which grows in warm water environs such as cooling towers, hot tubs, humidifiers, hot water tanks and large air-conditioning systems. The Health Department has been collecting samples from cooling tower systems in and around the area of the Highbridge cluster.People can contract the bacteria that causes Legionnaires’ disease by breathing in water vapor in which Legionella is present. Symptoms of the illness are flu-like in nature, including fever, chills, muscle aches and cough — and it can be fatal for individuals at high risk of illness, including people 50 years of age and older, cigarette smokers and those with chronic respiratory issues.“Any New Yorkers with flu-like symptoms should contact a health care provider as soon as possible,” said Health Commissioner Dr. Ashwin Vasan. “Legionnaires’ disease can be effectively treated if diagnosed early, but New Yorkers at higher risk, like adults aged 50 and older, those who smoke or have chronic lung conditions should be especially mindful of their symptoms and seek care as soon as symptoms begin.”
Pollution caused 1 in 6 deaths globally for five years, study says - The Washington Post - In 2015, 1 in 6 deaths worldwide stemmed from poor air quality, unsafe water and toxic chemical pollution. That deadly toll — 9 million people each year — has continued unabated through 2019, killing more people than war, terrorism, road injuries, malaria, drugs and alcohol. The new findings, released Tuesday by the Lancet Planetary Health journal, shows that pollution continues to be the world’s largest environmental health threat for disease and premature deaths, with more the 90 percent of these deaths taking place in low- and middle-income countries. Richard Fuller, the report’s lead author, said in an interview that “a lack of attention” accounts for why this grim tally continues unabated. “There’s not much of an outcry around pollution … even though, clearly, 9 million people dying a year is an enormous issue to be concerned about,” he said. The analysis, which used 2019 data from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors, found that air pollution accounts for the vast majority of premature deaths, at 6.7 million. Water pollution accounted for 1.4 million deaths, while lead poisoning took close to a million lives. The report is an update of a similar analysis done by Fuller and his colleagues in 2015, which also found air and water pollution as the top offenders. But that was about the only good news in the report. Instead of those traditional pollutants, fossil fuel burning, automobile combustion and toxic chemical pollution now pose a greater health risk in the developing world. More than half of the countries and nations worldwide experienced more deaths from outdoor air pollution and toxic chemicals in 2019 than indoor air pollution and water contamination. More than 2 million people died from industrial and chemical pollution in China, for example, compared with about 367,000 from traditional sources.
Pollution responsible for 1 in 6 deaths worldwide: study | The Hill --Pollution was responsible for about 9 million deaths across the world in 2019 — equivalent to 1 in 6 deaths — with little improvement from previous years, a new report has found. Although the number of deaths from pollution sources associated with extreme poverty has decreased, these achievements have been offset by an increase in deaths attributable to modern industrial pollution, according to The Lancet’s Commission on Pollution Health. The report, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, compared the number of deaths attributable to air pollution in 2019 to the number of deaths attributable to air pollution in 2015 — and determined that this figure remained largely unchanged. “Despite its enormous health, social and economic impacts, pollution prevention is largely overlooked in the international development agenda,” lead author Richard Fuller, co-chairman of the Commission on Pollution and Health, said in a statement. The Commission on Pollution and Health is a joint initiative of The Lancet, the Geneva-based Global Alliance on Health and Pollution, and the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Air pollution was the specific culprit responsible for 6.67 million — or nearly 75 percent — of the 9 million pollution-related deaths in 2019, according to the report. Water pollution was responsible for 1.36 million premature deaths, lead pollution contributed to 900,000 such deaths and toxic occupational hazards were behind 870,000 deaths. The decrease in deaths from traditional pollution sources — such as household air pollution from solid fuels and unsafe water — was most evident in Africa, the authors explained. They attributed these reductions to improvements in water supply and sanitation, antibiotics, treatments and cleaner fuels. But this decrease in mortality was canceled out by a global surge in deaths related to industrial pollution in the past 20 years, the authors noted. This rise was particularly apparent in Southeast Asia, where the combination of increased industrial population and aging populations has left greater numbers of people exposed, according to the study. Deaths caused by modern pollution sources — such as ambient air pollution, hazardous chemical pollutants and lead — have increased by 66 percent in the past two decades, the authors found. The number of deaths related to chemical exposures is likely to be an underestimate, the authors warned, noting that only a small percentage of manufactured chemicals have been sufficiently tested for safety or toxicity. Excess deaths caused by pollution in 2019 led to economic losses equivalent to $4 trillion to $6 trillion that year — or about 6.2 percent of the global economic output, according to the report. Meanwhile, 92 percent of these pollution-related deaths occurred in low-income and middle-income countries, the authors added.
Curbing energy-related air pollutants could save 50,000 US lives, $600B each year: study - Eliminating air pollutants generated by energy-related activities in the U.S. could prevent more than 50,000 premature deaths and save the economy more than $600 billion each year, a new study has found. The study, published in GeoHealth on Monday, explored the potential gains of removing the fine particles that are emitted into the atmosphere through electricity generation, transportation, industrial operations, heating and cooking. These activities, the authors noted, are also major contributors to climate change, since they burn fossil fuels that release greenhouse gases — in addition to generating fine particulate matter. Exposure to fine particulate matter — particles with a diameter of 2.5 microns or less — can contribute to health issues like heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer and lower respiratory infections that can shorten life expectancy, according to the study. The scientists determined that cutting these pollutants would save about 53,200 lives annually, while boosting the economy with about $608 billion from avoided health care costs and loss of life. “Our work provides a sense of the scale of the air quality health benefits that could accompany deep decarbonization of the U.S. energy system,” lead author Nick Mailloux, a graduate student at University of Wisconsin–Madison’s Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, said in a statement. “Shifting to clean energy sources can provide enormous benefit for public health in the near term while mitigating climate change in the longer term,” he added. Mailloux and his colleagues incorporated a model from the Environmental Protection Agency to calculate the health benefits that would arise by completely eradicating energy-related emissions of fine particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. The latter two sets of compounds can form particulate matter once released into the atmosphere, they explained. Breaking down the major sources of these pollutants, the authors found that cutting residential and commercial fuel use — such as heating and cooking — and on-road vehicle particulate emissions would lead to the greatest reduction in premature deaths.
U.S. Steel agrees to $1.5 M fine for air pollution violations at Edgar Thomson steel plant - U.S. Steel has agreed to pay a $1.5 million fine from U.S. EPA and Allegheny County for alleged violations of pollution controls at its Edgar Thomson steel works near Pittsburgh. The agreement settles a lawsuit brought by the agencies against the company in federal court. According to the complaint, the alleged violations took place between 2014 and 2018, and include failing to maintain pollution control equipment and failing to report problems witnessed during a routine inspection.The agencies alleged that U.S. Steel allowed the plant to continue operating even though valves in a pollution control chamber were inoperable. The complaint also alleges the company failed to notify the Allegheny County Health Department of the faulty equipment “despite the substantial likelihood of the breakdowns resulting in a release of potentially toxic or hazardous materials to the open air.” The agencies also alleged fugitive emissions were allowed to escape through an open “top door” inside a steelmaking chamber, and that the company exceeded limits for visible emissions at the plant. As part of the settlement, the company must make improvements to the plant, including installing a video system to monitor emissions, and conduct a study to determine better ways to control pollution. The areas of North Braddock, Braddock, and Rankin near the plant are considered environmental justice areas, where populations exceed the state average for the percentage of low-income and minority populations. “EPA is committed to protecting air quality in communities by ensuring companies follow the rules to protect public health,” said EPA Mid-Atlantic regional administrator Adam Ortiz, in a statement announcing the agreement. “Too often we find that residents in closest proximity to contaminated lands are impacted by environmental injustice, suffering cumulative health impacts and economic distress. Settlements like this serve notice to companies that they must follow the law to keep workers and neighbors healthy and safe.”“Everyone has the right to clean air and the Allegheny County Health Department continues to work to ensure that right for all residents,” said health department director,Dr. Debra Bogen, in a statement. “This settlement is another step toward that goal in Braddock and surrounding communities.”
Common Plastic Items Shed Trillions of Nanoparticles When Exposed to Hot Water - When you drink hot tea or coffee from a plastic cup, you could be swallowing trillions of bits of plastic so small that 1,000 of them could fit on a human hair.That’s one concerning finding from a study published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology this month, which tested how many nanoplastics—plastic bits smaller than 0.001 millimeters in size—are released when exposed to water.“[T]he most important finding has been the measurement of particles below 100 nm [nanometers] in water from things that people use in their everyday lives,” Microplastics are small fragments of plastic material that are typically smaller than a few millimeters. Over the past few years, scientists have coined the term "nanoplastic" for plastic fragments smaller than a few micrometers. The differentiation is useful because nanoplastics are "very difficult to isolate from their environment with simple methods, such as filtration, that can be used for microplastic." The National Institute of Standards and Technology study team wanted to see what would happen if everyday plastic items were exposed to water at increasing temperatures. While the study authors actually tested several plastics—and found that all of them released nanoplastics—they chose to focus the study on two types: food-grade nylon bags and coffee cups lined with low-density polyethylene. Food grade nylon is frequently used in the food industry for both wrapping and cooking food, while coffee cups are “ubiquitous,” . They exposed the materials to water at increasing temperatures and found that they released more nanoplastics as the water warmed."The number of particles released into water increase[s] rapidly with water temperature up until about 100 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius) and then it levels off,” . “So, water temperatures between 100 degrees Fahrenheit up to boiling point water released the same number of particles in water.” A typical cup of coffee is served at between 160 and 185 degrees Fahrenheit, definitely hot enough to expose the average caffeine addict. And they could potentially be swallowing quite a lot. In hot water, the average coffee cup released more than a billion nanoplastic particles per milliliter. “For reference, a small coffee cup is about 300 milliliters,” Zangmeister says. “So, that could lead to exposure to trillions of particles per cup.” The types of nylon bags used in slow cookers released 10 times more nanoplastics than the coffee cups, meaning they could be an even greater source of exposure.
Michigan Farm Is Cautionary Tale of PFAS Contamination and Sewage Sludge Fertilizer - Jason Grostic looks over his mama cows and wonders how he became the guy that the state of Michigan has shut down from selling either his meat or his cattle because of contamination from "forever chemicals." After working with state officials to test biosolids for more than two years, Grostic was asked to join a Zoom meeting in late January. On that call, state officials told him he was under a seizure notice. No animals or meat were allowed to leave his farm. "They said, 'You're out of business.' I said, 'Now what am I supposed to do?' They said, 'We haven't got a clue, but you're not selling your beef, and you can't get rid of your cattle." Grostic's 300-acre farm was shut down after Michigan officials concluded his water, his ground, his feed and his cattle were contaminated with per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances -- known as PFAS, PFOS or PFOA chemicals. The acronyms encompass more than 5,000 various manufacturing chemicals that are created to be more resistant to heat, water or oil. The traits that make those chemicals great for manufacturing have a side effect. They are called "forever chemicals" because they don't break down, but instead remain in the environment and tend to accumulate in soil, water, animals and people. PFAS chemicals have been linked to higher levels of certain cancers such as kidney and testicular cancers, lower fertility in women, higher rates of diabetes, liver damage and problems with immune systems. PFAS contamination is often found in water systems. States such as Michigan have been finding high volumes of PFAS chemicals in city water and wells. But along with that, PFAS chemicals attach themselves to biosolids such as sewage sludge, which is how farmers in a few states are learning that their soils are contaminated. Last month, Maine became the first state in the country to ban the spreading of municipal or industrial sewage sludge as farm fertilizer because of PFAS contamination. Michigan officials last year set a standard of not allowing PFAS for land applications containing more than 150 parts per billion, and biosolids such as sewage sludge must be tested before it can be applied on land.
Scientists create mutant cockroaches in gene editing breakthrough -For the first time, scientists have edited the genes of cockroaches to create ‘knockout cockroaches’. Researchers have successfully used CRISPR, a gene editing technology, on cockroaches in a first that opens the door to future gene-editing research on insects.CRISPR allows scientists to target a specific bit of DNA inside a cell and then alter it. This technology was a breakthrough for research into evolutionary biology and disease treatments, earning it the 2020 Nobel Prize in Chemistry.The ‘knockout cockroaches’ essentially have artificially inactivated genes, opening up applications for the technology to be used on other insects for pest control and evolutionary biology.They are labelled ‘knockout’ because part of their DNA has been ‘knocked out’.While scientists have previously used CRISPR on other species, it was impossible until now to apply it to insects like cockroaches that have inaccessible embryos. Cockroaches shield their fertilised eggs in hard cases for days or weeks until the offspring hatch. Due to this ‘unique reproduction system, it is impracticable to inject materials into very early embryos’ for gene editing.Scientists at Kyoto University, have instead managed to inject genetic materials into adult female cockroaches to produce mutant offspring, according to a study published this week in Cell Reports Methods. Using an approach called ‘direct parental’’ CRISPR (DIPA-CRISPR), researchers successfully demonstrated that both cockroach and beetle offspring contained artificially edited genes when their mothers were subjected to the injections.The ‘mutant’ cockroach offspring created using this method also passed the artificial mutations onto the next generation on mating. “Current approaches for insect gene editing require microinjection of materials into early embryos, which is highly challenging in most species. In this work, we established and optimized a simple and efficient method for insect gene editing by adult injection, which can be readily implemented in any laboratory and directly applied to a great diversity of non-model insect species,’ wrote Yu Shirai, the lead scientist on the study.
'They're taking everything': Banned in other states, pogy ships catch all they want in Louisiana - Along a chain of islands stretching from Venice to Grand Isle, a silvery swarm rises from the depths and flashes in the eye of a passing pelican. When the bird splashes down, scooping a mouthful of dollar-bill-sized fish, a feeding frenzy breaks out. Gangs of dolphins charge in, as do larger fish and dozens of other seabirds, all vying for a taste of a stinky, oily fish known as menhaden.The dolphins are smart enough to flee when the Gulf of Mexico’s apex predator arrives, first with a fish-spotting airplane and then a 174-foot-long “mothership” bearing two smaller boats that slide from a ramp and begin to encircle the scrum of sea life in a long black net.Steering his boat around the net, Venice-based fishing guide Michael “Red” Frenette gives a play-by-play of an industrial fishing process he says is harming his business and Louisiana’s fragile coastal ecosystem. Pound for pound, menhaden, also called pogy and fatback, is by far the state’s largest fishery. Yet few Louisianans have heard of it, and fewer still know how it’s fished.Frenette has witnessed the process dozens of times, and it still makes him furious.“They want the little fish, but they’re taking everything,” he says as the fishing crew cinches their purse seine net from the bottom and then tighten its top. Frenette points out a saltwater catfish and several burly redfish struggling amid the compressing mass of menhaden. He’s seen panicked dolphins tangled in the nets; today he spots a pelican. The bird dangles by its beak, wings flailing, as a winch lifts the net out of the water. A crewman yanks the creature free just before its head is crushed in the machine.The fish are sucked via a vacuum into the mothership’s million fish-capacity hold. It’s a fast, efficient process, but for Frenette, it’s the marine equivalent of a clearcut or a strip mine.“But that’s what this state’s all about,” he said. “If it’s oil or it’s fish, we allow companies to take, take, take.”There’s growing concern that all this taking, focused on the shallow waters within a mile or two of the shore, is weakening the food web on which much of the Atlantic ecosystem relies.“They’ve been described as the most important fish in the sea,” Skyler Sagarese, a research scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said of the humble menhaden. “They’re important because of their economic value, but also because almost every predator — marine mammals, birds, sea turtles and (bigger) fish — eats them.”
India bans all wheat exports over food security risk -India, the world’s second largest producer of wheat, has banned all exports with immediate effect after a heatwave affected the crop.A notice in the government gazette by the directorate of foreign trade, dated Friday, said a rise in global prices for wheat was threatening the food security of India and neighbouring and vulnerable countries.A key aim is to control rising domestic prices. Global wheat prices have increased by more than 40% since the beginning of the year.Before the war, Ukraine and Russia accounted for a third of global wheat and barley exports. Since Russia’s 24 February invasion, Ukraine’s ports have been blocked and civilian infrastructure and grain silos destroyed. At the same time, India’s own wheat harvest has suffered a record-breaking heatwave that is stunting production.Even though it is the world’s second largest producer of wheat, India consumes most of the wheat it produces. It had set a goal of exporting 10m tonnes of the grain in 2022-23, looking to capitalise on global disruption to wheat supplies from the war and find new markets for its wheat in Europe, Africa and Asia.Much of that would have gone to other developing countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.Apart from problems with weather damaging harvests, India’s vast stocks of wheat – a buffer against famine – have been strained by distribution of free grain during the pandemic to about 800 million people.To balance supply and demand, the government needs about 25m tonnes of wheat each year for an extensive food welfare programme that usually feeds more than 80 million people.
Record high wheat prices after India declares immediate export ban, massive protests after 300% food price increase announced in Iran --Wheat prices in Europe and Australia hit record highs this week after India – the world’s second-largest wheat producer – announced an immediate export ban due to a severe heatwave affecting the country since March. Global wheat prices have increased 40% since February 2022, increasing famine and sparking social unrest.The price of wheat in Europe jumped to 438.25 euros per tonne on May 16, breaking the previous closing record of 422.40 set on March 7.1S&P Global Commodity Insights assessments for West Australia APW hit a record high of $458/mt on May 17, rallying $18/mt on the day, while ASW closed at $426/mt, $16/mt higher on the day.2On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat was trading nearly 6% higher in midday trading at $12.48 per bushel.Wheat prices, exacerbated by war in Ukraine, fertilizer shortages and poor harvests, increased 40% since February 2022. This grim situation is fueling global inflation, increased famine and social unrest.We are already seeing massive protests taking place in Iran where at least one person was killed and 22 were arrested during recent unrest over food price increases.3 Unofficial sources mention at least 5 people were killed over the past 4 days.The protests were triggered by a cut in government subsidies for imported wheat that caused price hikes as high as 300 percent for a variety of flour-based staples.4The government said it will offer digital coupons that will allow citizens to access a limited amount of bread at subsidized prices, while the rest will be available at market rates. The bread scheme will come into force in about two months and will later include other goods such as chicken, cheese and vegetable oil, officials have said.5Prepare now.
Worst drought in 40 years affecting Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia - The Horn of Africa is experiencing its fourth consecutive failed rainy season and the worst drought since 1981. At least 15 million people across Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia are already affected and there are fears this number could jump to 20 million. “The world’s attention is elsewhere, and we know that,” the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator, Martin Griffiths, said during his last week’s visit to Kenya, where a severe drought is affecting more than 8 million people. More than 7.2 million people in the country are in need of food aid, and some 4 million require water assistance. Some 3.5 million people are severely food insecure and acute malnutrition rates in some areas are more than double the emergency threshold. Across the three aforementioned countries, roughly 5.7 million children are acutely malnourished. Additionally, more than 3 million livestock have died. With rains less than 60% of average across most of Kenya, widespread livestock deaths, minimal livestock productivity, very low cropping levels, and sharp declines in purchasing power are creating large food consumption gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. Unfortunately, forecast models are now predicting an elevated likelihood of yet another (the 5th) below average rain season for October – December rains, which will further escalate food needs. Griffiths is urging the international community not to ignore the rapidly escalating crisis in the region. “We need urgent action to help these communities survive now, and increased investment in their ability to withstand future shocks… We need to give them a future.”
Season’s first large plume of Saharan dust reaches the Caribbean Sea and South America - (video) A large plume of Saharan dust emerged off the coast of western Africa this week and has now reached the Caribbean Sea and South America. This is the season’s first large plume of Saharan dust to cross the Atlantic. The plume is expected to reach the U.S. Gulf Coast over the weekend. This mass of very dry, dusty air is called the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). It typically ramps in mid-June and subsides after mid-August. SAL can suppress clouds and thunderstorms when it reaches the U.S. coastline.1 Some areas will experience their hottest days of the summer when the SAL’s dry, dusty air is overhead and afternoon thunderstorms are being stifled. Because of the special way Saharan dust scatters sunlight, the best times of day to spot it are usually a few hours after sunrise and in the late afternoon. During the day, the sky will have a hazy white look and sunsets will take on an orange glow.The Saharan Air Layer has unique properties of warmth, dry air, and strong winds that can have significant moderating impacts on tropical cyclone formation and intensification. There are three characteristics of these Saharan dust outbreaks that can affect tropical cyclones, tropical disturbances, and the general climatology of the Atlantic tropical atmosphere: extremely dry air – which can weaken a tropical cyclone or tropical disturbance by promoting downdrafts around the storm, African Easterly Jet – which can cause tilting of the tropical cyclone vortex with height and can disrupt the storm’s internal heat engine, and warm temperatures which stabilize the atmosphere and can suppress the formation of clouds.
Western Drought Chokes Hay Supply - Drought continues to tighten its grip on the western half of the United States. Water is in such short supply that Las Vegas has put a ban on all grass lawns and is forcing their removal -- yes, Vegas not only has the Strip, but it's also stripping the turf. In the Central Valley of California, a zero-water allocation for irrigation districts that supply many farmers was announced back in March. Such a cutoff of water implies less production from one of the prime growing areas for fruits, vegetables and nuts in the U.S. Another effect of the western U.S. drought -- now in its third consecutive year -- is a notable shortage of hay supplies along with poor pasture conditions for the beef cow herds of the American West. Oklahoma State University extension livestock economist Derrell Peel noted some damaging numbers in the May 16, 2022, Oklahoma State Cow-Calf Corner Newsletter. "The May USDA Crop Production report included hay stocks for the beginning of the hay crop year, May 1. Total U.S. hay stocks were down 6.9% year over year and are 15.1% below the 2012-2021 average. This follows a nearly 12% decline in May 1 stocks last year and a Dec. 1 stock level that was down 6% year over year," Peel wrote. But the situation gets even worse when looked at over a two-year period. "After two years of drought in some areas, hay stocks in the West are down 36.6% from 2020 levels and are down 27.1% from the 2012-2021 average," Peel noted. "The hardest-hit region is the Northern Plains and Rocky Mountain states with Montana down 53.6% year over year, and down 55.4% from the 10-year average for the state. Also sharply lower were North Dakota, down 45.3%, South Dakota, down 50.5%, and Wyoming, down 38.5% from 2021 levels. In total, this four-state region (Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota) had May 1 hay stocks down 49.2% year over year. This level is down 48.1% from the 10-year average level for the four-state total. These four states had 15.1% of beef cows on Jan. 1." Conditions are only slightly less stressful in the Southern Plains (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas). "(The Region) had May 1 hay stocks down 12.0% year over year and down 25.3% from the 2012-2021 average. Oklahoma hay stocks on May 1 were down 47.8% year over year and are 43.5% below the 10-year average for the state. Kansas hay stocks were down 26.4% from last year and 32.5% below the 2012-2021 average. May 1 hay stocks in Texas were up 33.3% year over year but remain 10.6 below the 10-year average for the state. The three states accounted for 26.6% of beef cows in the country on Jan. 1, 2022," said Peel.
Drought-Hit Cattle Producers' Year May Already Be Done - Deep into the month of May, the season may already be over for cattle producers in some of this country's hardest-hit drought areas. The latest national USDA Crop Progress report rated about half of the country's pasture and range conditions as poor, or very poor. That is bad news, on a historical level, said Oklahoma State University's livestock marketing specialist Derrell Peel. The veteran analyst noted in his weekly report that only twice before have things been this bad. One was May 2021, the other May 2013. But neither case had such a high percentage of pastures in such bad condition this early in the year. For the week ended May 15, 2022, 49% of the country was reported to have pasture and range in poor to very poor conditions. Peel told DTN that even if things turned around tomorrow, conditions have already set the stage for continued herd liquidation, possibly into 2023. "This herd liquidation has largely been driven by physical conditions, namely the drought," he said. "So, clearly, if that persists, we may not be done with liquidation. But even if the drought backs off and becomes less of an issue, we still have a lot of economic signals to consider this year. "Without drought, we might see liquidation slow, but I am not sure we'd see anyone looking to expand due to these high input costs. In other words, even if they could expand, I don't know that they would," he explained, adding that the best case is the herd numbers stabilize moving into 2023. Peel said that in a few areas, if the drought suddenly ended, there might be some cases where producers could salvage part of the season. But the clock is ticking, forages are stressed, and every day a turnaround becomes less likely. "In the southern half of the region, we are well into what should be the time for rapid forage growth. If we go another two to four weeks in the shape we are in today, we lose a significant part of the rest of the season. Up North, maybe we have a month to recover? But we are already in drought in a lot of places, and we just are not seeing growth at this point," he said. Peel added that spring drought is especially tough when there are low carryover hay supplies -- which is the case in many areas. That leaves those producers who are fighting this cycle of drought basically looking at this time next year before they can hope to see impactful improvements.
US forests provide 83 million people with half their water - Forested lands across the U.S. provide 83 million people with at least half of their water, according to a broad new study of surface water sources for more than 5,000 public water systems. 125 million people, or about 38% of the country's population, receive at least 10% of their water from forests. In the arid western U.S., 39.5 million people get more than half of their surface drinking water from forests that are increasingly under threat of wildfires. "Healthy forests typically mean clean water, and people depend on forests for their surface drinking water supplies," said Peter Caldwell, a hydrologist at the U.S Forest Service and co-author of the new study. "Until we completed this work, we just did not know how many people obtain their water from forested lands or how much water from forests they receive." The new study, published today in the AGU journal Water Resources Research, provides a critical update to the map of where our surface water comes from. This information could help forest managers and water utilities identify hydrologically important forests so they can be prioritized for forest management or conservation. The study developed a new database of inter-basin water transfers, which move surface water around from where it's plentiful to where it's not. Think of the winding open-air canals like the California Aqueduct and Central Arizona Project supplying Los Angeles and Phoenix with drinking water. The study focused on surface waters such as lakes, rivers and streams because tracing the source of groundwater is very difficult at the national scale. The researchers found 69% of the water transported to Los Angeles through inter-basin transfers, and 82% of Phoenix's imported water, originated on forested lands. Across the U.S. every year, from 2001 to 2015, 594 transfers moved 117 billion cubic meters of water per year, about five times as much water as reported in the 1980s. The increase reflects a combination of higher data quality, many fine scale transfers, and true increases in water transfers due to the growing water demand over the past several decades. Some urban communities obtain more than 50% of their surface drinking water from forested lands through inter-basin transfers, extending some of the benefits of forested lands to urban communities.
Climate change will force big shift in timing, amount of snowmelt across Colorado River Basin - New research predicts that changes in mountain snowmelt will shift peak streamflows to much earlier in the year for the vast Colorado River Basin, altering reservoir management and irrigation across the entire region. "Because of global climate change, areas of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming could have much less water, and future hydrologic conditions may more closely resemble those of the arid Southwest regions of the basin today," said Katrina Bennett, a hydrologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory and coauthor of the paper published in the journal Earth and Space Science. The basin stretches from sea level at the Gulf of California to higher than 14,000 feet in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and provides critical water to cities and farmers within the basin and beyond. Significant water is diverted to large population centers, including Albuquerque, Denver, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, San Diego and Santa Fe. The study by a Los Alamos team using artificial intelligence predicts snowmelt disappearing entirely in some sub-watersheds and large snowpack losses in others. The team also found that higher-elevation areas of the basin are projected to see a large loss of snowpack as temperatures continue to rise. Particularly in the Rocky Mountains of the upper Colorado River Basin, the team found distinct variations in how much the seasonality and intensity of future runoff will change. In particular, the study projects more arid conditions in the Green River Valley near the border of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming; mountainous areas in Arizona will see significantly decreased soil moisture. The modeling isn't a crystal ball, though. "We observed significant uncertainty in drought behavior among the several climate models we used," Bennett said. The team derived the drought indicators from historical data and results from simulations of future scenarios by several climate models over a 30-year time period. The AI analyzed the simulation, then automatically pinpointed key sub-watersheds with big expected increases in drought. To manage the enormous resulting data sets, the AI reduced their size for quick processing, identified possible errors and targeted unforeseen responses.
Climate change is drying out Australia's tropical trees - The tropical forests of Australia’s northeast coast are some of the country’s natural wonders, rich with lush plants and rare animals, some of which are found nowhere else in the world. But like many of Australia’s other iconic ecosystems, from its bleaching Great Barrier Reef to its fire-swept brushlands, its future is threatened by climate change.New research finds that the tropical trees of North Queensland have been dying at faster rates for nearly 40 years now. Since the mid-1980s, the average risk of tree death has approximately doubled. The exact causes are difficult to pin down, the scientists say. But warming is likely to blame. The atmosphere has been growing drier in this part of Australia, which is a source of stress for trees — a drier atmosphere sucks more water out of plants and into the air. At the same time, the study finds that the risk of tree mortality is higher in drier spots. The study also suggests that rising death risk is a problem for the majority of tree species throughout the region. In other words, there aren’t any clear “winners” emerging in this scenario to replace the trees that are dying off. “It was a shock to detect such a marked increase in tree mortality, let alone a trend consistent across the diversity of species and sites we studied,” said lead study author David Bauman, a plant ecologist at the University of Oxford, in a statement. The new study analyzed data on 81 tree species, collected from 24 different sites across North Queensland’s tropical forests. The data, including tens of thousands of individual observations, stretch back 50 years. For a few years, the study finds, the risk of tree mortality was actually slightly declining. Then, around 1984, the trend reversed and the risk of death started increasing. It’s been that way for nearly four decades now. The death risk appeared to be increasing across nearly all study sites and species, meaning it was probably linked to some factor affecting the whole region equally. The researchers found that tropical cyclones cause an uptick in deaths and may be at least part of the problem — but they can’t explain the whole situation.
California wildfire season begins early with first months of 2022 the state’s driest on record - Prematurely hot weather and lack of rainfall has started wildfire season early in California. The Coastal Fire in the Orange County area of Southern California gained nationwide coverage last week as dozens of multi-million dollar mansions in the city of Laguna Niguel were burned to the ground by the fast-moving blaze. Sassan Darian holds his cat Cyrus as he stands in front of his family's fire-damaged home in the aftermath of the Coastal Fire Thursday, May 12, 2022, in Laguna Niguel, Calif. [AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez] The Coastal Fire destroyed 20 homes and damaged nearly a dozen others with mandatory evacuation orders still remaining in effect. An investigation is currently underway to determine the cause of the fire although officials from the Southern California Edison utility company claim that an unspecified electrical “circuit activity” at a nearby water treatment plant was likely responsible. As of Monday morning, the fire was at 60 percent containment with crews working to battle the remainder of the blaze before more homes were threatened. By all accounts, the fire started and spread quickly under what were relatively moderate conditions. Humidity was high, around 70 percent, while temperatures only reached approximately 78 degrees Fahrenheit. Nonetheless, a confluence of unfavorable factors led to the sparking of the blaze. It is believed that vegetation in the adjoining canyon area had been devastated by drought conditions extending back decades. That, along with high winds and steep terrain caused the fire to rapidly spread. Laguna Niguel is a relatively affluent area of southeastern Orange County with median household income nearly double the national average. Moreover, the median home price as of April 2022 was $1.3 million. At the Coronado Pointe gated community, where most of the homes were damaged or destroyed, houses were valued at $3 million or more, with one of the mansions valued at $10 million. A mass mobilization was carried out to battle the fire including 550 firefighters and multiple air drops of water and fire retardant chemicals on homes and the surrounding Aliso Canyon area. There were no deaths as a result of the fires although two firefighters were injured, both of whom were released from hospitalization soon afterwards. “What we experienced was a fire, wind-driven, down a relatively level flat terrain, until it hit the side of that slope, and fire is always going to run uphill faster, wind or no wind. But when you have that strong a wind blowing that fire uphill. And if you’re familiar with that area, it is extremely steep, extremely thick vegetation that has not burned in probably decades,” according to Orange County Fire Authority Chief Brian Fennessy. The latest fire is the fourth in the Orange County area so far this year. The Emerald Fire in Laguna Beach broke out in February while the Jim Fire broke out in the Cleveland National Forest in March, and another fire broke out in the San Juan Capistrano area in the same month. “We don’t have a fire season,” “It’s year-round now, and these last four fires that we’ve had just proved it to all of us.”
Wildfires eat up $1.9B of Calif. cap-and-trade revenue - California’s battle against catastrophic wildfires is pulling money from one of its key programs to fight climate change, with the total expected to soon hit $1.9 billion. The Golden State has spent nearly $1.46 billion in cap-and-trade revenues to fill holes in fire agency budgets. Dollars funded controlled burns to thin forests, the removal of dead vegetation, education efforts, improved evacuation routes, fire crew costs and more. Another $482 million is proposed for the coming years. Experts largely agree that the prevention work is needed. But there’s disagreement over whether the funding should come from cap-and-trade revenues. The revenues “should be prioritized for emissions reductions that are direct and that are guaranteed, such as replacing an internal combustion engine with a zero-emissions vehicle,” Brandon Dawson, director at Sierra Club California, said in an interview. Putting the money toward fire prevention is less of a sure thing, as “it’s impossible to tell … where the next wildfire is going to occur,” he said. “The state is essentially making a guess about where to remove the trees.” But Daniel Berlant, deputy director at the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or Cal Fire, said cap-and-trade revenues offer a dependable pot of money. The state is able to allocate enough funds toward fire programs “when times are good,” he said, but that funding is not guaranteed. “Fire prevention has to occur year after year,” Berlant said. “And so those cap-and-trade dollars provide for a stable funding source for these projects.” California’s cap-and-trade program, which started in 2013, requires large businesses to account for their greenhouse gas emissions. The program auctions “allowances” that large businesses buy to offset each metric ton of carbon they produce. Those auctions have generated $19.2 billion for the state, according to a recent report released on the program. Of that money, $10.5 billion has been spent on projects that have been implemented. In the initial years of cap and trade, the revenues largely funded major climate-related projects, such as the state’s planned bullet train between Los Angeles and San Francisco, the expansion of light rail, and the advancement of zero-emissions vehicles. Indeed, the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund — which is the state’s pot of proceeds from cap and trade — “is supposed to go to programs that reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Ethan Elkind, climate research fellow at the University of California, Berkeley’s School of Law. Using it to prevent wildfires is “not really what was hoped for,” he said. Instead, the aim was to “use the money to provide funding for clean technology or long-term investments that are going to continue to net ongoing greenhouse gas reduction.”
Northern NM wildfire exceeds 300,000 acres - As national forests across northern New Mexico prepare to close to the public because of extreme fire danger, officials said Wednesday morning that the Calf Canyon/Hermits Peak wildfire has grown to 301,971 acres and is 34% contained. More than 1,950 personnel are battling the largest fire in state history. Jayson Coil, an operations section chief for the fire’s west zone, said crews have made “excellent progress” on the blaze’s eastern perimeter. Now the team is focused on building fire breaks to the west and north of the fire. The crew is removing dead trees and brush in the fire’s path and thinning out forested areas. “That reduces the likelihood that we’d get a crown fire, where fire moves through the tops of the trees independent of a ground fire,” Coil said. Coil said the crews understand the importance of shielding homes and recreational areas like Sipapu Ski Resort from the fire. advertisement “Protecting a ski resort is not the same as protecting a home,” Coil said. “Ski resorts that don’t have trees on their runs, especially in the Southwest, usually stop being ski resorts. They need that shading to keep the snow.” Thousands of residents are displaced across four counties. The Governor’s office estimates that the fire has destroyed at least 1,000 structures.
Governor: Fire could destroy over 1,000 NM homes --Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon Fire, the biggest in New Mexico history, could be responsible for the loss of between 1,000 to 1,500 homes and structures and displacing as many as 10,000 people. In a news conference Tuesday, Lujan Grisham acknowledged she did not have hard figures — most recent estimates had put losses of homes at 366 — but added “given the nature of this fire … I don’t think it’s an exaggeration.” Much of Tuesday’s news on the fire front came from outside the areas in Mora, Taos and San Miguel counties where the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon blaze is being fought. Her comments came the same day two of the state’s national forests — the Santa Fe National Forest and Carson National Forest — announced they are closing Thursday because of the dry weather conditions and severity of the fire. The orders remain in effect at both forests through the end of 2022 unless they are rescinded. Forest lands, recreational sites, roads and trails will be closed to the public. The 1.6 million-acre Santa Fe National Forest already had initiated restrictions on the building and use of campfires, smoking, or blasting or welding with an open flame on forest property. “New Mexicans need to be on alert … for most of the summer,” Lujan Grisham said during the news conference, which focused on Federal Emergency Management Agency efforts to help New Mexicans in the wake of the historic fire, which grew to 299,565 acres with 26 percent containment. The last time the both forests closed was in the summer of 2018 due to dry weather conditions and the potential for fire. Santa Fe National Forest closed for about five weeks in June and July that year. The 1.5 million-acre Carson closed for not quite two weeks for part of that time. In Southern New Mexico, Lincoln National Forest spokeswoman Laura Rabon said officials there are discussing following suit. Closure, she said, “is a real possibility for us in the near future.”M
Black Fire becomes second largest fire currently burning in New Mexico – The Black Fire added more than 20,000 acres over the past 24 hours totaling more than 77,000 acres and becoming the second largest wildfire currently burning in New Mexico. The wildfire started under a week ago, on May 13, in the Gila National Forest — about 24 miles north of Mimbres. The cause of the fire start is still unknown and under investigation. High temperatures, low humidity and winds have culminated in creating the perfect conditions for the fire to grow quickly. Based on an infrared flight from Tuesday night, May 17, the fire is estimated to be burning 77,529 acres of forest land. No percentage of the perimeter is contained. More than 250 personnel are working to contain the blaze with more arriving continuously. A Type 2 Incident Management Team took over control of the fire early May 18, meaning there is a greater capability for resources available. The fire was active with short runs and spotting Tuesday, according to an update released by the National Forest Service. A spot fire was seen across Diamond Creek. Hotshot crews and air tankers worked on the eastern portion of the fire burning in grassy fields and responded to an area of the fire that started moving northwest later in the day. Firelines were constructed. Crews also started assessing structures and roads and identifying areas where indirect lines could be constructed for containment. The national forest reported that crews would continue with assessments Wednesday and help landowners secure inholdings in the forest. Ground crews plan to work on the west side of the fire near Forest Road 150. A spokesperson for the U.S. Forest Service said more growth is expected, however weather is forecast to be less severe. The area will remain hot and dry, but winds are anticipated to be light. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the high 70s to mid-80s. Winds will likely pick up toward the end of the week, bringing red flag fire conditions. Smoke from the Black Fire is heavy and visible from much of the state, including Las Cruces. The forest service reported that smoke is drifting from the Gila to the east. Skies were visibly hazy in Las Cruces Wednesday. The Air Quality Index placed the Las Cruces area in the moderate zone and climbing to unhealthy, meaning people sensitive to smoke may be affected. As the blaze grows, sheriff's offices in Grant, Catron and Sierra Counties have implemented evacuations. They are using the “Ready, Set, Go” program to keep residents notified. Areas in the Ready level should prepare their homes by removing nearby dry vegetation. Set level residents should have a "go bag" — packed with personal essentials, important paperwork and other irreplaceable items. Residents in a Go area should immediately evacuate the area as the fire is approaching.
Wildfires Are Still Catching Us Off-Guard. Congress’ Plan to Fix that Isn’t Going Anywhere. - Government Executive The historic wildfires in New Mexico have triggered containment and evacuations at the local, state, and federal levels. The yet-to-be contained fires have incinerated over 280,000 acres of land since the beginning of April, while the Hermits Peak Fire, just east of Santa Fe, has burned more acreage than all wildfires in New Mexico last year. So far, at least 30,000 people have had to flee their homes. New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham called this year’s wildfire season “dangerously early,” but premature fire seasons catching local, state, or federal authorities off-guard has long been a concern for fire managers and fire researchers. To get ahead of that problem, some members of Congress have a solution. But that legislation hit a bureaucratic roadblock last autumn and has basically died.Last year, during a Congressional hearing on the state of wildfire research, researchers and fire managers said that coordination among federal agencies to improve wildfire research would be tremendously helpful to prepare for future fires. Partnerships between research agencies, like NOAA, and forest management agencies like, the Department of the Interior, or DOI, do exist. TheJoint Fire Science Program, for example, has been helpful in getting necessary information to stakeholders on the ground when wildfires spread. But what these programs often don’t do is connect all the relevant science research agencies together that contribute pieces to the wildfire fighting puzzle. “[Research agencies] currently provide research and tools, such as fire weather predictions, satellite imagery, predictive fire analysis research and building codes,” testified Erik Litzenberg, Chair of the Wildland Fire Policy Committee of the International Association of Fire Chiefs. “A standardized warning system would help emergency managers and the public act as the fire develops.”In the wake of the hearing, and the record-breaking wildfires that swept the West in 2020 and 2021, a group of Western House Democrats introduced a bill last October hoping to fill that research gap. The National Wildland Fire Risk Reduction Program Act aims to “to support the development of novel tools and technologies to improve understanding, monitoring, prediction, and mitigation of wildland fires, associated smoke, and their impacts.” In practice, the bill codifies coordinated wildfire research between agencies like NASA, NOAA, The Department of Energy, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the Environmental Protection Agency. The bill would also help facilitate collaboration from a host of other agencies including the United States Forest Service and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. But the bill has stalled in Congress, caught in a parliamentary maze: To prevent slowing the bill’s passage, lawmakers opted to keep legislation’s jurisdiction limited to the House Committee on Space, Science, and Technology, effectively barring any direct conversations with firefighters and forest managers – services under the umbrella of different congressional committees. That carve out led Republicans to conclude that the bill wouldn’t be truly comprehensive, while representatives opined that their Democratic colleagues did not include them as directly in the bill drafting process. As such, Ranking Member of the House Science Committee, Oklahoma Representative Frank Lucas, indicated that the bill would have “no legislative future.”
Climate change is heating up Florida. That could bring more wildfires, new report warns - When Hurricane Michael tore through North Florida in 2018 as a Category 5 storm, it left more than 3 million acres of felled trees in its wake. Those largely untouched trees were the perfect fuel for three simultaneous wildfires that raged through the region in March. The Chipola Complex fires turned the skies smoky and blood red, destroyed two homes, prompted the evacuation of a thousand more and consumed more than 30,000 acres of forest before firefighters got it under control. Research from First Street Foundation released Monday suggests that as climate change warms the planet, the risk of wildfires like those in Florida could double by mid-century. Matthew Eby, executive director of the nonprofit climate research group, said its modeling shows Florida's current 6% of properties at risk from wildfires could jump to 12% by 2052. "Florida is already a hot place, and it's seeing an increase," he said. "What you end up with is a pronounced effect of the changes of wildfire risk." On the national map First Street created, most of the increased risk is—unsurprisingly—in the West. But Florida is a lone dark red spot on the East Coast. That's partially because the state is expected to stay hotter for more days of the year with climate change, and also because Florida is so developed that it physically has more pieces of property at risk than in other states, where thousands of acres may count as one property. The report suggests that as the state gets hotter, it could make it more likely for more wildfires to form. "The fires aren't bigger, they just take off more often because it is drier and it is hotter," Eby said. In South Florida, researchers found the biggest risk is for homes near the eastern border of the Everglades. Earlier this month, ash and smoke from three separate Everglades fires were visible in Weston. Florida's Polk County was No. 5 on a national ranking of counties with the highest number of properties at risk of wildfire. Bryan Williams, a meteorologist with the Florida Forest Service, said First Street's findings make sense to him. He sees an opportunity for more fires in Florida as the state gets hotter with climate change. "Look at the past five years. Florida has basically been on the very warm side of things," he said. "You're seeing more drought, you're seeing higher temps, and in April and May you're seeing relative humidity getting pretty low. It's kinda one of those trends that you look at and it's concerning." Williams says fire season, like hurricane season, has a peak. And in Florida, that's April and May.
Bridge Collapse Amid Heat Wave in Pakistan Raises Fears of Massive Glacier Melt Flooding - Record-high temperatures in Pakistan caused Shisper glacier to melt rapidly, triggering the collapse of the Hassanabad Bridge along the Karakoram Highway last week. With 7,253 known glaciers, Pakistan is home to more glacial ice than any other country on earth outside the polar regions. If these start melting in increasingly severe heat waves, there could be massive flooding in the country. Pakistan is among the most vulnerable to climate change. India and Pakistan have been hit by a severe heat wave very early this summer. Jacobabad, a city in Sindh province, hit 122ºF (50ºC) in April, one of the highest April temperatures recorded in the world. Dadu, another city in Sindh, recorded 117ºF (47ºC). "This is the first time in decades that Pakistan is experiencing what many call a 'spring-less year," Pakistan's Minister of Climate Change, Sherry Rehman said in a statement. The consequences of rising temperatures in South Asia could be very severe, ranging from crop losses, food shortages and floods. Pakistan's contribution to global carbon emissions is less than 1% but it is still ranked among countries most vulnerable to climate change. The energy-hungry nation needs help to finance climate-friendly development of clean energy sources and climate-resilient infrastructure. Last year at COP26 conference in Glasgow, Pakistan provided its NDCs 2021 (national determined contribution 2021) to the United Nations ahead. Some of Pakistan's NDC targets are voluntary while others are contingent upon the receipt of financial assistance from the rich nations most responsible for the climate crisis. Some of Pakistan's solution are nature-based such as its Billion Tree Afforestation Project (BTAP) while others require significant increase in low-carbon energy from wind, solar, hydro and nuclear.
Climate change doubled the likelihood of South Africa's floods - Parts of South Africa are still reeling nearly a month after heavy rains and catastrophic floods wracked the coastal city of Durban and surrounding areas, killing hundreds of people and destroying thousands of homes. Now, scientists say the extreme rainfall was worsened by the influence of climate change. According to a new analysis by the research consortium World Weather Attribution, the likelihood of an event this severe happening at all has more than doubled because of global warming. The amount of rainfall in this case was also 4 percent to 8 percent more intense than it would have been without the influence of climate change. The findings are “consistent with scientific understanding of how climate change influences heavy rainfall in many parts of the world,” said lead study author Izidine Pinto, a climate scientist at the University of Cape Town and an adviser at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, allowing storms to dump more rain. That doesn’t necessarily mean storms will happen more frequently — but in many places, they’ll be stronger when they do happen. This region of southern Africa, he added, is one of those places. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that extreme rainfall is likely to intensify there as the planet continues to warm. South Africa is no stranger to heavy rainfall as it is. Durban, in particular, has seen a number of similar disasters in recent years, including a devastating series of floods and landslides as recently as spring 2019. The latest event was triggered by days of torrential rainfall over South Africa’s east coast, especially the provinces of Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. Some locations recorded around 14 inches of rain over just two days. It’s the latest event investigated by World Weather Attribution, which specializes in studying the links between climate change and individual extreme weather events, a field of research known as attribution science. Founded in 2014, the group has analyzed dozens of climate-related disasters around the world, including heat waves, floods, droughts and storms. Recent studies from WWA have found that climate change worsened the extreme rainfall produced by tropical cyclones in Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi earlier this year. It made the heavy rainfall and severe floods that devastated Western Europe last year much more likely. And the astonishing heat wave that scorched northwestern North America last summer would have been virtually impossible without the influence of global warming.
Destructive floods and landslides hit Assam, India – Southwest monsoon seems to have arrived early this year as very heavy rains hit Assam, producing destructive floods and landslides. As of May 16, at least 5 people have been killed, including three in a landslide in Dima Hasao. According to the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA), 7 districts have been affected by very heavy rainfall on May 15, but the number increased to 20 on May 16 – Bajali, Baksa, Biswanath, Cachar, Charaideo, Darrang, Dhemaji, Dibrugarh, Dima-Hasao, Hojai, Kamrup, Karbi Anglong West, Kokrajhar, Lakhimpur, Majuli, Nagaon, Nalbari, Sonitpur, Tamulpur, and Udalguri. In total, 197 248 people in 652 villages have been impacted. 1 005 homes have been destroyed and 1 732 damaged. Breach of flood embarkments was reported in 16 areas. 59 roads were damaged and 6 bridges. Additionally, 16 645 ha (41 132 acres) of farmland has been submerged and 49 474 animals affected. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts isolated heavy to very heavy rains over Assam through Friday, May 20, and possibly beyond. Persistent wet conditions for the past month or so have resulted in a wetter-than-usual pre-monsoon season for Assam. From March 1 to May 15, the state has recorded 545.6 mm (21.5 inches) of rain, representing an excess of 40% as compared to its long-term average of 389.2 mm (15.3 inches).
Unusually powerful Subtropical Storm “Yakecan” hits Urugay and Brazil - Hurricane-force winds and heavy rain brought by Subtropical Storm “Yakecan” hit parts of Uruguay and Brazil over the past couple of days, leaving hundreds of thousands of people without power and at least 2 people dead. An extratropical cyclone moved through the southern region of Brazil on May 15 and stalled offshore, bringing heavy rain. It then made a retrograde movement and obtained subtropical characteristics by May 17, receiving the name Yakecan. Meteorologist Scott Duncan described Yakecan as a ‘rare and violent cyclone’ that could be ‘historic for intensity at this latitude in South America at this time of year.’ Uruguay’s capital Montevideo registered wind gusts up to 100 km/h (62 mph), forcing authorities to issue an Orange weather alert. Roofs were blown off, around 23 000 customers were left without power, and at least one person lost his life. According to officials, a 23-year-old man was killed in Montevideo when a tree fell on his house amid gusts of 98 km/h (61 mph).
Widespread damage after Storm Emellinde hits Germany - (videos) At least three people have been killed and more than 50 were injured on May 20, 2022, when a violent storm named ‘Emmelinde’ hit Germany, spawning several tornadoes and leaving widespread damage. One of the tornadoes hit the city of Paderborn in Germany’s most populous state – North Rhine-Westfalia, Friday evening, leaving a path of destruction and injuring 43 people, 10 of them seriously. “Sheeting and insulation were blown kilometers away. Countless roofs are uncovered or damaged. Many trees still lie on destroyed cars,” police said.1 The twister also hit the nearby town of Lippstadt where more than 100 people were temporarily trapped at a local outdoor pool after fallen trees blocked the exit. “The entire town area suffered heavy damage,” Lippstadt’s fire service said. In both cities, windows burst and cars were destroyed by falling branches.2 The Altenbeken municipality near Paderborn reported that some of the trees snapped at the trunk – as if hit by a giant’s hand. In the Hellinghausen district of Lippstadt, the top of St. Clemenskirche fell to the ground and was destroyed. A spokesman for the NRW Ministry of the Interior said that in addition to Paderborn and Lippstadt, no other places were known that had been hit similarly. A 38-year-old man in the town of Wittgery died of head injuries when he fell after suffering an electric shock in a flooded cellar.3 Two people died in Ballenstedt, Saxony-Anhalt after a strong wind gust caught their motorized paraglider at a height of about 40 m (131 feet) and crashed it to the ground. There were several other tornado reports Friday, including one in the Netherlands, close to the German border and three in Germany, CNN meteorologist Taylor Ward said.4 Meteorologists said the extreme weather was caused by hot air coming from Africa meeting relatively cooler air moving down from northern Europe. References:
House panel unveils water projects, sea-level rise package - House lawmakers are poised to mark up an expansive water infrastructure bill this week that includes a bipartisan strategy coastal lawmakers are rallying around to shore up the nation’s defenses against accelerating sea-level rise. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee is slated to take up H.R. 7776, the “Water Resources Development Act of 2022,” backed by Chair Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) and ranking member Sam Graves (R-Mo.).The biennial water projects bill lays out a blueprint for how the Army Corps of Engineers tackles flood control, navigation and ecosystem restoration, and gas a strong track record of reaching the president’s desk.Tucked inside the House draft is language from the bipartisan, bicameral “Shoreline Health Oversight, Restoration, Resilience and Enhancement (SHORRE) Act” to elevate the Army Corps’ focus on protecting and restoring shorelines and riverbanks.That same language became part of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee’s version of the water projects bill, S. 4137, which advanced by unanimously earlier this month (Greenwire, May 4).The Senate “SHORRE Act,” S. 3624, was sponsored by Carper and Louisiana Republican Bill Cassidy. The House companion, H.R. 6705, is backed by Reps. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.) and Garret Graves (R-La.) (E&E Daily, Feb. 10).Other provisions in the House WRDA bill that echo the SHORRE Act would boost maintenance of structures in and around the Great Lakes, address tidal and back bay flooding, prioritize coastal mapping and beach renourishment, and reauthorize some of the corps’ levee authorities.While the House and Senate WRDA bills share similarities, they also differ and will likely see further negotiation and tweaks as the measures move through Congress.Both bills, for example, would approve new environmental infrastructure projects and clarify and elevate the Army Corps’ authority and allow the agency to study the effect of coastal storms on back bay and riverine flooding as it studies ongoing risk of coastal storms, according to a fact sheet.But while the House version would authorize 72 feasibility studies for Army Corps projects and direct the secretary to expedite the completion of 15 feasibility studies currently underway, the Senate version would authorize 36 new feasibility studies and authorize or modify 21 projects for construction, according to a fact sheet.
Deep ocean warming as climate changes - Much of the "excess heat" stored in the subtropical North Atlantic is in the deep ocean (below 700m), new research suggests. Oceans have absorbed about 90% of warming caused by humans. The study found that in the subtropical North Atlantic (25°N), 62% of the warming from 1850-2018 is held in the deep ocean. The researchers—from the University of Exeter and the University of Brest—estimate that the deep ocean will warm by a further 0.2°C in the next 50 years. Ocean warming can have a range of consequences including sea-level rise, changing ecosystems, currents and chemistry, and deoxygenation. "As our planet warms, it's vital to understand how the excess heat taken up by the ocean is redistributed in the ocean interior all the way from the surface to the bottom, and it is important to take into account the deep ocean to assess the growth of Earth's 'energy imbalance'," said Dr. Marie-José Messias, from the University of Exeter. "As well as finding that the deep ocean is holding much of this excess heat, our research shows how ocean currents redistribute heat to different regions. "We found that this redistribution was a key driver of warming in the North Atlantic." The researchers studied the system of currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). AMOC works like a conveyer belt, carrying warm water from the tropics north—where colder, dense water sinks into the deep ocean and spreads slowly south. The findings highlight the importance of warming transferring by AMOC from one region to another. Dr. Messias said excess heat from the Southern Hemisphere oceans is becoming important in the North Atlantic—now accounting for about a quarter of excess heat. The study used temperature records and chemical "tracers"—compounds whose make-up can be used to discover past changes in the ocean. The paper, published in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment, is entitled: "The redistribution of anthropogenic excess heat is a key driver of warming in the North Atlantic."
Seismovolcanic crisis continues at São Jorge Island, Azores - 33 000 earthquakes in 2 months - The seismovolcanic crisis at the Manadas volcanic fissure system in the NW part of São Jorge Island, Azores has entered its third month on May 19, 2022. A notable change in seismicity was reported on April 6, when volcano-tectonic earthquakes were detected, suggesting the movement of magma at depth. The last confirmed eruption of this volcano took place in 1808 (VEI 1). According to the Center for Seismovolcanic Information and Surveillance of the Azores (CIVISA), the earthquake swarm at Manadas volcanic fissure system started at 15:05 UTC on March 19 with three M2.8 – 29 earthquakes within 2 minutes. Two months later, more than 33 000 earthquakes were recorded of which 280 were felt. The seismicity continues at above normal level, although it has decreased in hourly frequency and magnitude.On April 6, CIVISA reported they detected volcano-tectonic earthquakes for the first time since the crisis started.1 Also known as hybrid, volcano-tectonic earthquakes happen when there is a fusion of high-frequency tectonic tremors with low-frequency volcanic ones, said Fatima Viveros, from the region’s CIVISA center. They suggest the movement of magma at depth, Viveros said, adding that more such earthquakes are expected. On April 4, two days before the detection of hybrid earthquakes, CIVISA warned that ‘there is a real possibility of a volcanic eruption’ in São Jorge, but ‘there is no evidence that it is imminent’. As of May 20, the volcanic alert remains at Level 4 of 6.
M3.0 solar flare erupts from geoeffective AR 3014, follows M5.6 on May 19 - (video) A moderately strong solar flare measuring M3.0 erupted from geoeffective Active Region 3014 at 07:45 UTC on May 20, 2022. The event started at 07:35 UTC and ended at 07:49. A 10cm Radio Burst lasting 2 minutes with a peak flux of 210 sfu was associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. AR 3014 is located at the center of the solar disk which favors Earth-directed coronal mass ejections. It has ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic configuration and is capable of producing strong to major solar flares. Earth-directed CMEs from this region are likely over the next couple of days. Solar activity was at moderate levels in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on May 20 due to several M-class flares of which the largest was M5.6 at 07:19 UTC on May 19. Eight sunspot groups were present on the visible disk and background X-ray flux continued at C-class levels.
How a Philippine inquiry could shape global climate litigation - For years, fossil fuel companies have engaged in misinformation campaigns aimed at delaying the shift away from the world’s most polluting energy sources. Now those actions could be used to hold them responsible for the climate harms their operations have fueled. That’s according to a sweeping inquiry by a human rights commission in the Philippines that legal experts say could help shape the future of global climate litigation. The report, published earlier this month, followed a multiyear investigation by the Philippines’ Commission on Human Rights. The commission found that dozens of investor-owned oil, coal, mining and cement companies had engaged in “willful obfuscation” of climate science to sow doubt and misinformation about climate change and prevent the transition to clean energy. “All acts to obfuscate climate science and delay, derail or obstruct this transition may be bases for liability,” the commission wrote. “At the very least, they are immoral.” The report stems from a 2015 petition that civil society groups and typhoon survivors in the Philippines brought to the commission. In it, they called for an investigation into how publicly traded fossil fuel and cement producers have contributed to climate-related damages, which they allege have deprived the Filipino people of access to basic human rights and dignity. Nearly 50 corporations are named in the petition, including Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell PLC, TotalEnergies SE , RWE AG and BHP Billiton. The commission is the first human rights body to investigate companies’ responsibility for climate damages stemming from their operations, but it may not be the last, say legal experts who have followed the inquiry. “The findings of the commission and where human rights climate litigation is going on the corporate side really shows how we are going to see accountability and corporate responsibility in a different way,” said Joana Setzer, a research fellow at the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
The climate scientists are not alright - Frustration, rage, terror, desperation: After decades of being ignored, scientists are resorting to more radical action to communicate the dire urgency of the climate crisis. As Rose Abramoff chained herself to the White House fence, she was more worried about securing the lock than getting arrested. Meanwhile, four other protesters shackled themselves beside her. One pair locked arms through a PVC tube while another bike-locked her neck to the fence. “That was pretty metal,” Abramoff said. Within 10 minutes, police were on the scene. With bolt cutters and a circular saw, the police broke through and took Abramoff and the others away. Two days later, Abramoff returned for another climate protest, this time blockading Interstate 395 in D.C. She was arrested, once again, wearing her lab coat. “It’s important for [scientists] to say, ‘It’s true. It’s not a fantasy. These [climate activists] are not extremists,’ ” said Abramoff, a climate change and soil scientist based in Knoxville, Tenn., who withheld her institution because her employer does not want to be affiliated with her activism. “They’re kind of the only sane ones as far as I can tell.” As time runs out for the planet to avert a future of climate chaos, scientists around the world are throwing down the gauntlet. Climate change science has been settled for decades, yet policymakers have yet to take sweeping action, and greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb to record highs. Climate scientists began to publicly make policy recommendations based on their research in the late ’80s, and their warnings have become increasingly strident. In April, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said emissions must peak by 2025 to avoid catastrophic consequences. Now this inaction is driving some scientists to engage in civil disobedience, while others are striking against the IPCC, calling for a halt of further reports until governments mobilize. It’s a dire situation that’s taking a toll on the mental health of scientists, and raising the question of what climate advocacy scientists should engage in as politicians imperil the planet.“It’s the job of us in the science community and climate scientists to communicate what we understand about future projections and the current climate pledges as forcefully as possible,” Abramoff said of her civil disobedience. “It is not only necessary, but it’s right.” “The research is clear. We know we’re f-----,” said Kyle Topfer, 29, an environmental scientist based in Germany and full-time organizer with SR who was arrested on the bridge. “Civil disobedience is an incredibly powerful way of reconnecting society that doesn’t connect with the truth.” Historically, climate advocacy as a scientist has been viewed by some as akin to a scarlet letter, a move that could jeopardize a researcher’s credibility or job. Abramoff and others recognize the risk to their actions, but see inaction as far more consequential. “The fear of damaging our professional reputation and losing our jobs is a very real fear,” she said. “Those are fears that I have. But they’re no longer as large as my fear of the future that we’re creating.”“We are indoctrinated with this sense that we have to stay neutral,” Abramoff added. “That causes us to reject our humanity and suppress what we’re thinking and feeling about our research. It’s not healthy and it’s not fair.” On the same day that Abramoff chained herself to the White House fence, Peter Kalmus, 47, a climate scientist with NASA, and three others were arrested for chaining themselves to the doors of JPMorgan Chase in Los Angeles, the world’s largest funder of fossil fuels. While chained to the door, Kalmus choked up delivering a speech that went viral. Shortly after, dozens of riot police descended on the bank, which also went viral.
Do Airline Offset Programs Really Reduce Your Carbon Footprint? - The idea of carbon offsets, sometimes called carbon credits or climate credits, is simple. We know human activity releases tens of billions of tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases every year. We also know it is possible to remove or sequester carbon from the atmosphere by, for example, planting trees.Offsets seek to compensate for emissions in one place — for example, from passenger airplanes — by funding emission reductions or carbon removal somewhere else, like forests.Some experts see them as an essential tool to limit environmental damage, at least in the short to medium term, until the world can make a full transition to renewable energy. Governments including California, the European Union and Australia are relying on them to meet their national goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Scientists are clear that the world needs to reach net-zero emissions — the point where we either stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, or fully counteract the gases that we do produce — by 2050 to avoid the worst effects of climate change, and “it’s virtually impossible to get to zero” without offsets, he said.But that doesn’t mean offsets work today, and Professor Usher’s advice to people right now is hardly a ringing endorsement. “If you wish to because it aligns with your values, sure, you should buy carbon credits,” he said. “But don’t be under the illusion that, for every credit you buy, it’s absolutely 100 percent reducing emissions by an equal amount.”Many offset projects do not even come close to 100 percent of the benefits they promise.A pair of studies published in 2019 and last year examined California’s forest carbon offsets program and found that it was likely to have overstated its total emission reductions by 80 percent or more. In a 2016 study, the European Union Commission concluded that 85 percent of the projects it examined were unlikely to achieve their reduction claims. And a 2019 ProPublica investigation found that, overwhelmingly, forest preservation projects “hadn’t offset the amount of pollution they were supposed to, or they had brought gains that were quickly reversed or that couldn’t be accurately measured to begin with.”Even well-designed projects can go awry, sometimes because of climate change itself: Last summer, wildfires in California burned more than 150,000 acres of forests that had been set aside under the state’s carbon offset program.
Carbon removal technologies to get $3.5B federal investment (AP) — The federal government is investing in machines that suck giant amounts of carbon dioxide out of the air in the hopes of reducing damage from climate change. The Department of Energy said Thursday it will release $3.5 billion to groups developing direct air capture and other technologies that remove carbon dioxide, which when released into the atmosphere causes global warming. Climate scientists say humans have already allowed too much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to prevent dangerous rises in global temperatures. They say on top of curbing emissions we must also remove carbon dioxide from the air that’s already been released. “This past month we saw the highest levels of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere in history, underscoring the fact that our efforts to tackle climate change will be inconsequential if we don’t act now to manage the greenhouse gas emissions that are currently putting public health and our environment at risk,” said Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm in a statement. Companies such as Carbon Engineering and Climeworks are building direct air capture facilities that use giant fans to suck carbon dioxide out of the air and store it underground, or capture it to make synthetic fuel, soft drinks or concrete. But the facilities built so far remove just a tiny fraction of the carbon dioxide that scientists say is necessary to make a difference.
Carbon Dioxide Pipelines Are Dangerously Unregulated - In February 2020, a cloud of gas washed over Sartartia, Mississippi, causing residents to pass out on the spot and sending nearly 50 people to local hospitals. Unbeknownst to the residents, a carbon dioxide pipeline half a mile away from the town had ruptured, sending a cloud of CO2 washing over the community. Rescuers were forced to don protective gas masks as cars stalled, unable to run without oxygen. As carbon capture and storage—the process of capturing CO2 emissions from power plants and other industrial sites, then storing it permanently underground—is increasingly floated as an important component of decarbonization, pipelines carrying CO2 like the one in Sartartia could become more common. And there are disturbingly few national safety regulations in place, despite the pace of changes being made.“There are so many gaping regulatory holes that need to be filled, and so much R&D that needs to be done,” said Bill Caram, the executive director of the Pipeline Safety Trust, a nonprofit that focuses on safety issues and regulations.While the Trust has investigated the potential dangers of pipelines for years, a report on the Sartartia accident published last year in the Huffington Post, Caram said, was a wake-up call for them to look at regulations around CO2 pipelines in particular. The fossil fuel and pipeline industries scrambled to respond to the Trust’s report, issued earlier this year, on the almost total lack of safety regulations for these critical pieces of infrastructure.While CO2 pipelines may have a good safety record now, that’s not saying a lot. Currently, there are only about 5,000 miles of CO2 pipelines in the U.S.—a tiny number compared to the 2 million miles of natural gas pipelines. The vast majority of those pipelines, Caram explained, exist to transport CO2 from one point, usually from natural reservoirs, to oilfields a relatively short distance away, for what’s known as enhanced oil recovery, or the process of injecting CO2 into a well to get more oil out of it.But the status quo looks poised to change fast. There are currently two major pipeline projects being proposed in the Midwest that could signal the changes to come. A pipeline network owned by a company called Navigator Ventures is proposing to transport CO2 1,300 miles throughout five states; the company claims the project will have the capacity to transport and store 15 million tons of CO2 each year. Summit Carbon Solutions, meanwhile, islooking to build a 2,000-mile pipeline throughout five states—four of which overlap with the Navigator project. These two projects alone will almost double the length of CO2 pipelines in the U.S.
Buffalo shooting suspect embraced 'eco-fascist' label - The 18-year old accused of killing 10 people in a Buffalo supermarket over the weekend left behind a racist manifesto that called for reclaiming environmentalism in the name of white nationalism. The suspect’s 180-page manifesto — posted and reposted on the anonymous message board 4chan, along with images from the live-streamed mass shooting — invokes the racist conspiracy theory that the ruling class is using immigration to politically and culturally “replace” white people. Embracing the label “eco-fascist,” the suspected mass shooter called on other white supremacists to view immigration as “environmental warfare.” “Green nationalism is the only true nationalism,” the Buffalo suspect’s manifesto reads, echoing a line used by the white nationalist who in 2019 killed 51 people in Christchurch, New Zealand. The reference to the Christchurch shooter’s manifesto demonstrates how tapping into environmental anxiety is becoming a favorite tactic for far-right extremists. The same green racism was invoked by the shooter who in 2019 killed 23 people at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas. And experts have flagged the growing popularity of Ted Kaczynski, also known as the Unabomber, among white supremacists who are drawn to his hostility toward modern society. The Buffalo suspect’s manifesto offers the latest example that “eco-fascism” is becoming an animating force among young far-right extremists. “For too long we have allowed the left to co-opt the environmentalist movement to serve their own needs,” the Buffalo manifesto reads. “The left has controlled all discussion regarding environmental preservation whilst simultaneously presiding over the continued destruction of the natural environment itself through mass immigration and uncontrolled urbanization, whilst offering no true solution to either issue.”
Seventeen States Sue EPA for Allowing California to Set Tougher Vehicle Emissions Standards by Jerri-Lynn Scofield --California has long enjoyed a special position in regulating car emissions since the Clean Air Act was passed in 1970, and has been allowed to set its own standards, under various grants of regulatory authority. The Trump administration revoked a waiver that since 2013 allowed California so set stricter standards, but this March, EPA administrator, Michael Regan, restored the permission. The Wall Street Journal summarized the state of play in a March article: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency officials said Wednesday that their decision to restore California’s ability to set emissions standards for passenger cars and trucks would improve air quality and combat climate change.California, the nation’s biggest car market, had long set emissions standards that exceed requirements set by the federal government, using the power of a waiver it was granted under the Clean Air Act. More than a dozen states follow its regulations, and auto makers have used California’s standards as their guidelines to avoid manufacturing different cars for varying standards. Marlo Lewis, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, called the administration’s move an effort “to rig auto markets in favor of high-mpg and electric vehicles” that “will be challenged in court, and the administration deserves to lose.” He said the “EPA’s action will have no discernible impacts on air quality, energy security or climate change. It will, however, further restrict auto makers’ freedom to produce the vehicles consumers want at prices they can afford.” Last Friday, seventeen Republican attorneys general sued to overturn the California exemption. Per The Hill:The lawsuit alleges EPA Administrator Michael Regan violated the Constitution’s doctrine of equal sovereignty by allowing California an exemption from the Clean Air Act, which the Golden State used to impose more stringent emissions limits than the nationwide limit.“The Act simply leaves California with a slice of its sovereign authority that Congress withdraws from every other state,” West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) said in a statement. “The EPA cannot selectively waive the Act’s preemption for California alone because that favoritism violates the states’ equal sovereignty.”Other plaintiffs in the lawsuit include the attorneys general for Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas and Utah.Since automakers don’t wish to produce different models – one California-compliant, and otherwise – allowing California to set its own standards establishes a de facto nationwide floor for vehicle emissions standards. Per the Los Angeles Times:
Explosion rocks Coshocton ethanol plant — There were no injuries from an explosion of a dryer around 10:30 p.m. Friday at Three Rivers Energy, 18137 County Road 271.Eamonn Byrne of parent company Lakeview Energy said personnel were working on commissioning a grain dryer prior to start up. He said they are determining what happened and would release more information once known. Social media posts stated the reverberation from the blast could be felt all over Coshocton County. Byrne confirmed there were no injuries and commended plant manager Jared Adams and other employees on following strict safety guidelines. Byrne also thanked local first responders for their efforts in getting everything under control quickly and confirming the matter was contained. There was no active fire. Assisting on scene were Coshocton County Emergency Medical Services, Coshocton County Emergency Management Agency, Coshocton County Sheriff's Office and Three Rivers, Coshocton, Conesville and Jackson Township fire departments. All crews were released about 11:50 p.m. Three Rivers Energy started as the Coshocton Ethanol Plant in 2008. It shutdown after 10 months. C.E. Acquisitions, a partnership of Lakeview Energy and Crestwood Energy of Illinois, acquired the biofuels refinery in 2013. It produces ethanol, distillers grains to feed livestock and corn oil. The plant closed in October 2019 due to an unsure corn crop and policies of the Donald Trump presidential administration hurting the industry. In July 2020, company CEO Jim Galvin said the COVID-19 pandemic derailed reopening plans. They once had 40 workers and a few employees were kept to monitor and maintain the plant. In May 2021, Lakeview announced a $50 million capital partnership with Orion Energy Partners to fund process upgrades at the Coshocton biorefinery. The investment would provide energy savings to Lakeview and support a long-term offtake agreement with a producer of hand sanitizer and other hygiene products.
California To Spend $5.2 Billion On Electricity Reserve To Avoid Blackouts - California has proposed spending $5.2 billion on creating a "strategic electricity reliability reserve" that would help the state avoid blackouts when its electric grid is stressed, a 2022-2023 budget revision document showed on Friday according to Bloomberg. California has weathered a fair amount of criticism over its electric grid, which contributed to rolling blackouts as recently as 2020. California warned last week that it could run into electricity shortages this summer with drought, heatwaves, and wildfires continuing to stress the grid. But renewables and California's electricity exports have also stressed the grid. The Reserve will be developed using existing generation capacity that was scheduled to retire, new generation, new storage projects, clean backup generation projects, customer side load reduction capacity that is visible to and dispatchable by CAISO during grid emergencies, and diesel and natural gas backup generation projects—which the budget document stressed would have emission controls and all required permits. Of note were two items in that list: "existing generation capacity that was scheduled to retire" and "diesel and natural gas backup generation projects". California is set to retire 6,000 MW of nuclear and gas-fired energy production. The Reserve will be capable of providing up to 5,000 MW that will be available whenever the grid is stressed. The new budget would also earmark $8 billion over five years to increase the state's system reliability and provide relief to consumers as electricity rates rise. The budget now calls for $22.5 billion in funds for the purpose of "climate resilience and integrated climate, equity, and economic opportunity across the state's budget to mobilize a coordinated all-of-government response to the climate crisis.
Why Your Utility Company Sucks | The New Republic -- The United States will be asking a lot of its electric grid over the coming decades. Everything from home heating to transportation will need to move to the grid, as a system built to distribute electrons out from a central source transforms to accept them back from millions of rooftop solar arrays—all as it swiftly excises coal and gas and weathers the climate crisis those fuel sources have already created. Given the magnitude of the task ahead, it’s understandable that people are asking questions about how electricity is governed. Right now, the vast majority of the U.S. grid is managed by companies that have had regulatory capture and rampant corruption baked into their business model.This week, 235 organizations—including nonprofits Solar United Neighbors, the Energy and Policy Institute, the Institute for Local Self-Reliance, the Center for Biological Diversity, and the Open Markets Institute, as well as a variety of consumer and anti-monopoly advocates, environmental groups, and rooftop solar companies—submitted a petition asking the Federal Trade Commission to open an investigation into investor-owned utilities’ anti-competitive practices and violations of consumer protections. Specifically, they’re asking the agency to explore “unfair competitive actions that harm clean energy competitors, including consumers generating their own renewable electricity” and “unfair and deceptive acts, including corrupt dealings and voting interference, that enrich utilities and ultimately drive up consumer electricity rates and decrease consumer choice.”“Decarbonization has to run through electric utilities,” said David Pomerantz, executive director of the Energy and Policy Institute. “It seems really important that those same utilities at the center of our vision for the future of climate action not be allowed to corrupt regulators and policymakers wantonly. So we have to solve those things in parallel.” Electricity utility governance in the U.S. is built on a bargain struck more than a century ago with a burgeoning class of robber barons. In exchange for submitting to state-level regulation, highly concentrated investor-owned utilities—fierce competitors with public power providers—would receive a monopoly over massive service areas. Public utility commissions (or PUCs, as they’re still generally known) would ensure those for-profit utilities provided reliable and affordable service, and executives could use the rates charged to their customers to fund new infrastructure, like generation plants and power lines. That bargain also served to legitimate the then-controversial idea that people deserved to get fabulously rich off providing an essential service.
The West, reliant on hydro, may miss it during heat waves - When California suffers a heat wave, it leans heavily on hydropower from the Pacific Northwest to keep the lights on. But that hydropower may not always be available when it’s most needed, as climate change is shifting the ground on which the West’s dams sit. Higher temperatures means snowmelt occurs earlier in the year and leaves less water available for power generation during the depths of summer. The result is a heightened risk of blackouts during extreme heat waves as a result of less hydro availability, according to a report out this week from the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC). The report highlights a paradox of running the region’s electric grid in a warming world: As energy demand rises with temperatures, there may be less hydro available to supply power, increasing the need for fossil fuels. According to NERC, the greatest threat to the West is a heat wave like the one that boiled cities from Seattle to Tucson in 2020 (Energywire, May 19). Hotter temperatures strain the grid because soaring demand means there is less spare power to ship from one part of the region to another. The risk of power outages is especially acute during the early evening hours, when solar output begins to fall but electricity demand remains elevated. It’s against that backdrop that hydropower becomes particularly important. A recent study published in the journal Earth’s Future found that hydro availability and summer air temperatures are likely the biggest determinants in Western electricity prices in the coming decades. “If we have heat waves that increase demand, that is when that loss of hydro becomes really important,” said Adrienne Marshall, a computational hydrologist at the Colorado School of Mines. The challenges vary in different parts of the West, she said. The issue in the Northwest is seasonal. Many dams in the region are subject to regulations that require them to manage water levels for flood protection, agricultural use and endangered species habitat, meaning there are limits to how much water can be stored behind impoundments if runoff occurs earlier in the year, Marshall said. That presents challenges during summer heat waves, when demand for electricity soars. The Southwest is less reliant on dams to produce electricity than its northern neighbors, but faces decreased hydro output as the region becomes drier.
9th Circuit keeps massive Ariz. copper mine on ice - A federal appeals court yesterday affirmed a 2019 ruling that axed a key approval for a $1.9 billion proposed Arizona copper mine and ignited debate over U.S. mining law. In a 2-1 decision, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said a federal judge was right to invalidate the Forest Service’s approval of Toronto-based Hudbay Minerals Inc.’s massive open-pit Rosemont mine near Tucson in the Coronado National Forest and Santa Rita Mountains. Two 9th Circuit judges said the Forest Service “de facto amended” the 1872 General Mining Act and other statutes “to give Rosemont what it wants” — the ability to keep waste rock on nearly 2,500 acres of national forest lands where no mill sites have been built and where no valuable minerals are located.“In virtually every session of Congress, multiple competing reforms of the Mining Law are introduced,” wrote Senior Judge William Fletcher, who led the majority opinion. “But amendment of the Mining Law is a task for Congress, not for the Service, and certainly not for us.”The 9th Circuit ruling upholds a surprise 2019 order by the U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona that scrapped the Forest Service’s final record of decision for the Rosemont mine, halting bulldozers that were set to begin work on the 5,431-acre project (Greenwire, Aug. 1, 2019).Tribes and environmental groups that had challenged the Rosemont mine celebrated their latest victory against the project, which would have excavated archaeological sites and ancestral burial grounds sacred to the Tohono O’odham Nation, Pascua Yaqui Tribe and Hopi Tribe.“The ruling thoroughly dismantles the error-riddled process and reinforces the importance of protecting these sites and the entire region’s water supply,” said Tohono O’odham Nation Chair Ned Norris Jr. in a statement. “As decisive as this decision is, Rosemont’s foreign investors will likely continue to try and profit through environmental and cultural destruction. We must not allow this to happen.”The Rosemont mine also faces legal challenges on issues such as the project’s impact on critical jaguar habitat in the Santa Rita Mountains.Hudbay said it was glad that the 9th Circuit had not completely ruled out a Forest Service approval for the project. “Rather,” the company said in a statement, “it directs the Forest Service to reconsider its decision after correcting the mistakes in its analysis identified by the Court.”
China Emerges As Second-Largest Bitcoin Mining-Hub Despite Ban - The U.S. has risen as the global dominant country housing Bitcoin hash rate while China has picked up pace to trail in second despite its ban from last year, new data from a Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance (CCAF) report shows. Following the need for underground mining facilities in China after the ban that took place in June of 2021, covert Chinese operations have risen to 21.11% of the global hash rate, returning China to its position as a major mining hub worldwide with Sichuan (42.59%) followed by Xinjing (32.25%) the largest Chinese regional hash-rate providers. Kazakhstan continues to hold a respectable hash rate of 13.22%, while Canada controls 6.48% and Russia produces 4.66%.From September 2021 to January 2022, CCAF data shows a continued rise in dominance for the U.S. leading 37.84% of the total global hash rate. The largest American hash rate providers are Georgia (30.76%), Texas (11.22%), and Kentucky (10.93%).The last time CCAF released detailed bitcoin mining data was in October 2021, immediately following the aftermath of the Chinese ban which resulted in a shockingly steep decline in hash rate – bottoming out at 57.47 exahashes per second (EH/s) on June 27, 2021, per the report. A quick and decisive migration took place in what seemed like an overnight exodus and by December 2021 the hash rate had risen back to previous levels, reaching 193.64 EH/s on December 21, 2021). By February 2022, a new all-time high (ATH) of 248.11 EH/s of global Bitcoin hash rate was achieved, showcasing the incredible adaptability of the bitcoin ecosystem in the face of adversity.
Michael Bloomberg Plans a $242 Million Investment in Clean Energy - Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, will announce a $242 million effort on Tuesday to promote clean energy in 10 developing countries. The investment is part of Mr. Bloomberg’s push, announced last year, to shut down coal production in 25 countries and builds on his $500 million campaign to close every coal-fired power plant in the United States. The announcement is tied to a gathering this week in Rwanda hosted by Sustainable Energy for All, an international group working to increase access to electricity in the global south. The money will fund programs in Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Africa, Turkey and Vietnam. Representatives of Bloomberg Philanthropies and partner organizations, including Sustainable Energy for All and the ClimateWorks Foundation, said they would work with local governments and businesses to develop spending plans. Helen Mountford, the president and chief executive of ClimateWorks, said that specific ways Mr. Bloomberg’s money could be spent include research and analysis, public education campaigns, clean energy pilot programs and buyout payments to close existing coal plants. “Which strategies are appropriate for each country will really be guided by the in-country partners who know them best,” Ms. Mountford said. “The first approach is to identify the relevant strategies per country and to start to identify who can help to deliver those and move those forward and get the funding to the ground.”
Wolf touts Pennsylvania's bid for a low-carbon hydrogen hub that relies on fossil fuels - Pennsylvania officials want to bring more energy and manufacturing jobs to the state by building a Clean Hydrogen Hub in the region.In his announcement on Monday, Gov. Tom Wolf said the hub could help reduce carbon emissions, which is a growing concern for companies worried about climate change.The 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law includes $8 billion to build at least four Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs across the country. The hubs would connect companies that can produce hydrogen fuel from natural gas and other hydrocarbon fuels. Hydrogen fuel’s only by-product is water, which makes it a cleaner source of energy.“This would transform our economy. This would transform us in ways we really should be excited about,” Wolf said. “I would love Pennsylvania, with the resources we have here — the universities, the natural resources, the work ethic — everything we have here, this is a natural place for this to happen. And what better place in Pennsylvania than Pittsburgh?” Marcellus Shale natural gas reservoirs run under much of Pennsylvania, which has helped make the state a popular location for natural gas plants as well as manufacturing facilities and other heavy industries.“This is an important initiative for our region that can allow us to reach our goals for energy sustainability more quickly,” Allegheny County executive Rich Fitzgerald said in a statement. “Western Pennsylvania already has a significant number of stakeholders who call this region home who are also invested in making improvements that create jobs, encourage manufacturing, address our supply chain, and have a better environment.”However, some environmental groups have criticized the process of producing hydrogen and turning it into energy as inefficient. Some note that although it can reduce carbon emissions, the process still relies on the existence of the fossil fuel industry.Local environmental organization Breathe Project called the proposed hydrogen hub “a plan that will take us in the wrong direction.” The organization said clean hydrogen technology is not yet “market-ready” and that carbon capture technologies are “underperforming, unproven and should not be the basis for future major infrastructure investments.”“We know that putting health first for infrastructure investments also means putting people first and putting sound economics first,” Breathe Project executive director Matt Mehalik said in a statement. “We know doubling down on fossil-fuel-based infrastructure only puts fossil fuel special interests first. We have been hearing excuses about gas as a bridge fuel for over a decade. It’s time that we are across that bridge to renewable energy, not fossil fuel band-aids.”
Lawmakers battle over Commerce tariff probe into solar panel parts - Lawmakers are battling over a Commerce Department investigation into solar panel imports that could lead to heavy tariffs on Chinese imports that are critical to the solar panel industry. The issue is not a partisan one: Democrats and Republicans stand on both sides of the issue, with one bipartisan group arguing the investigation itself and the tariffs that could eventually come would devastate the solar sector. In an interview with The Hill, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) said that both the investigation and the tariffs themselves are “causing massive disruption” in the solar industry, particularly Nevada, which has the most per capita solar jobs of any state. “We are only able to supply about 15 percent domestically of the demand for solar panels. So we don’t have the capacity here right now to fulfill all the orders there are and even finish the projects that are already bid out,” Rosen said. Other Republicans and Democrats say Commerce was right to launch the investigation to protect U.S. jobs and prevent Chinese companies from circumventing existing laws meant to prevent the dumping of cheap products. “A strong commitment to American manufacturing must be paired with proper trade enforcement so that investments in American production, workers, and innovation are not undermined by unfair trade practices,” Sens. Sherrod Brown (D) and Rob Portman (R) wrote in a letter to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in March asking that the petition for the investigation be accepted. Brown and Portman framed the investigation in terms of American jobs at stake, writing, “if legitimate circumvention allegations go unaddressed, entire domestic industries and thousands of American manufacturing jobs are at risk.” Commerce accepted the petition from Auxin Solar, a San Jose, Calif.-based solar company, in March. It is investigating whether several solar panel part companies in Southeast Asia are using those companies as fronts to circumvent U.S. tariffs in place on Chinese companies. The department had previously rejected a similar petition from the trade group American Solar Manufacturers Against Chinese Circumvention.
Bipartisan governors urge Biden officials to wrap up solar investigation - A bipartisan coalition of 19 governors is calling on the Biden administration to quickly wrap up an investigation into solar panel component manufacturers, echoing the concerns of the solar panel industry about the impact of the probe. The governors wrote in a letter sent Monday that the probe — which comes in response to a petition from San Jose, Calif.-based company Auxin Solar — potentially threatens thousands of jobs as well as the administration’s own renewable energy deployment goals. “The current market disruption jeopardizes much of the progress achieved by the domestic solar industry and we fear this will only continue for the duration of the investigation,” the governors wrote. “Almost immediately, solar prices have jumped because of dramatic drops in solar product imports, threatening the livelihoods of more than 230,000 American workers who rely on solar jobs and raising energy costs on families.” Governors who signed the letter included Arkansas’s Asa Hutchinson (R), Colorado’s Jared Polis (D), Hawaii’s David Ige (D), Indiana’s Eric Holcomb (R), Kansas’s Laura Kelly (D), Louisiana’s John Bel Edwards (D), Maine’s Janet Mills (D), Maryland’s Larry Hogan (R), Massachusetts’s Charlie Baker (R), Minnesota’s Tim Walz (D), Missouri’s Mike Parsons (R), Nevada’s Steve Sisolak (D), New Mexico’s Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), New York’s Kathy Hochul (D), North Carolina’s Roy Cooper (D), Oregon’s Kate Brown (D), Pennsylvania’s Tom Wolf (D), Washington’s Jay Inslee (D) and American Samoa’s Lemanu P. S. Mauga (D). Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo (D) announced the investigation in March following allegations by Auxin that Chinese companies had illegally circumvented tariffs on solar panel components by manufacturing the parts in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. The Solar Energy Industries Association has sharply criticized the investigation and said its actions could devastate the domestic solar industry, while a bipartisan group of senators, including Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), has also called for a swift end to the probe.
Renewable energy industry warns of ‘concerning’ impact of regulatory uncertainty - Regulatory uncertainty could restrain the growth of the renewable energy industry in the coming years, according to a trade group’s annual report. In its 2021 report, released Tuesday, the American Clean Power Association said about 10 gigawatts (GW) of the renewable energy capacity set to go online last year was delayed. “Looking into 2022 and beyond, inflation, supply chain issues, and the uncertainty of tax policy and lack of predictable regulatory action for renewable energy are all expected to have a concerning impact on our ability to deliver growth,” the report stated. The report also pointed to the likelihood of continued uncertainty within the industry, specifically citing the ongoing Commerce Department investigation into potential tariff circumvention by Southeast Asian solar panel part manufacturers. The Solar Energy Industries Association, the solar industry’s primary trade group, has reduced its installation projections by half in response to the investigation. The trade group attributed the delays to a combination of lack of policy clarity, interconnection backlogs and supply chain problems. The report also indicated that transmission is a potential hurdle for the renewable energy industry, stating that 1,400 miles of transmission lines were brought online in 2020, compared to less than 300 last year.
U.S. renewable industry sees 'unnecessary barriers' ahead - Renewables are growing too slowly to meet the Biden administration’s carbon-free grid goal, and trade groups are girding for a year of obstacles, according to a new U.S. industry report. Released by the American Clean Power Association (ACP) this morning, the annual market report takes stock of how the solar, wind and energy storage industries fared in 2021 — and how that picture might change this year. It reaches troubling conclusions for the Biden administration’s climate goals. Last year, the overall rate of renewable power and storage growth didn’t budge, compared to 2020. The current volume of installations is a little over one-third of what will be necessary to reach a carbon-free grid in 2035, wrote the ACP, the largest U.S. trade group for wind, solar and storage. Across the three industries, growth was deeply uneven in 2021. While solar and battery storage had a record year, onshore wind installations cratered, falling 22 percent, for example. Overall, about 28.5 gigawatts of renewable power and energy storage came online, enough for about 6.6 million homes. But a huge chunk of expected capacity — some 10 GW — was delayed by a confluence of problems, ranging from price hikes for commodities and shipping to allegations of labor abuses in Chinese supply chains, according to the report. This year, those problems could compound, with a “concerning impact on our ability to deliver growth,” it said. Amid inflation, supply chain issues and the threat of solar-equipment seizures by custom guards, the report said, the Commerce Department has begun a review that could end in new tariffs on solar panels and cells from four Southeast Asian countries — a process that is “already taking a toll,” with utilities delaying projects due to shortages of panels. “At a time when every [megawatt] of clean energy is crucial to protect Americans’ pocketbooks, drive economic growth, and achieve the country’s climate targets, these unnecessary barriers are slowing progress,” the trade group wrote. The group’s alarm, which echoes that of solar-specific trade groups, came a day after 19 bipartisan governors sent a letter to President Joe Biden and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, begging them to close down the inquiry as soon as possible. The governors also asked for an economic analysis on how the tariffs would hurt businesses, workers and families. Until Commerce reaches a conclusion in the solar tariff probe, “uncertainty will stifle investments and innovation,” the governors wrote.
Private equity's power plants emit more CO2 than Argentina - Private equity firms own over 250 fossil-fuel-fired power plants in the United States, making the opaque industry responsible for 14 percent of the nation’s carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation, according to a new report provided to E&E News. The reportreport, published by a financial regulations advocacy group, found that private-equity-owned plants in 2020 together spewed the equivalent of 200.7 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere — more than the nation of Argentina. “The private equity industry has become a major force behind climate change by financing a substantial greenhouse gas emitting sector with little public awareness or regulatory oversight,” wrote Oscar Valdés Viera and researchers from the Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund. For access to public markets, investor-owned utilities have to issue quarterly reports, make regular disclosures to securities regulators and hold annual meetings — where, in recent years, investors have increasingly pushed management to improve their companies’ environmental performance. Private equity firms don’t face the same scrutiny or disclosure requirements. They also often purchase companies using corporate debt and complex legal structures that shield the firms from losses or liabilities if the debt-laden companies go bankrupt or run afoul of regulators. That’s allowed them to become “pollution financiers of last resort, using money from institutional investors including pension funds, university endowments, and foundations, to keep pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere away from the public eye,” the researchers said. Their report was based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data on power plant ownership from the beginning of 2020 until last September, as well as on emissions data from EPA. Overall, they found private equity firms own 696 utility-scale power plants, with 255 fossil-fuel-fired facilities accounting for 80 percent of the firms’ generation capacity. The remaining megawatts are mainly produced by hundreds of wind power facilities and solar plants. The largest private equity owner of fossil fuel plants was Energy Capital Partners LLC, which had 51 gas-fired facilities and another six that ran on oil during the period covered by the report. Its plants dumped 44.7 million metric tons of CO2 into the air in 2020, the most recent year for which data was available. ECP’s top investors include the California Public Employees’ Retirement System and several other state pension fund managers, according to the private investment information firm PitchBook Data Inc.
It's now cheaper to switch from coal to renewables instead of coal to gas, report shows - Record-high coal and gas prices have been pushing prices higher for consumers and businesses alike, but there could be a silver lining.According to the findings of climate analytics firm TransitionZero, it is now cheaper to switch from coal to clean energy, compared to switching from coal to gas — thanks to the falling cost of renewables and battery storage, coupled with the rising volatility of gas prices."The carbon price needed to incentivize the switch from coal generation to renewable energy for storage has dipped to a negative price," said Jacqueline Tao, an analyst at TransitionZero."So essentially that means that you can actually switch to renewables at a cost saving," she told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Wednesday.The report claims that the global average cost of switching from coal to renewable energy has plunged by 99% since 2010, compared to switching from coal to gas.Using its Coal to Clean Carbon Price Index — or C3PI project — the company measured the carbon price level it takes to motivate 25 countries to switch fuels, from existing coal to renewables such as new onshore wind or solar photovoltaics plus battery.Their findings show that the carbon price required to incentivize the coal-to-clean energy switch has plummeted to -$62 per ton of carbon dioxide emitted on average in 2022. That's compared to $235/tCO2 to incentive them to switch from coal to gas.This challenges the place of natural gas as a "bridge fuel" to transition from coal to clean energy like wind, solar and other renewables. Traditionally, gas has been considered a bridge from coal to renewables because burning gas has a lower carbon intensity than burning coal.The coal-to-clean carbon price varies across regions, and the picture isn't "as rosy" in Asia compared to the European Union due to differences in market structure and fuel price mechanisms, Tao said.Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam still face a relatively high cost of transitioning directly to renewables from coal. According to Tao, these countries have traditionally lagged in the renewable energy transition due to fossil fuel subsidies for domestic producers of coal and gas.
EU plans renewables expansion, says coal needed a little while longer - The European Commission has fleshed out details of a plan to ramp up the EU's renewable energy capacity and reduce its reliance on Russian fossil fuels, at the same time acknowledging that existing coal facilities may have to be used for "longer than initially expected." A document outlining the Commission's aims for the REPowerEU plan was published on Wednesday, highlighting the importance of energy savings, the diversification of energy imports and speeding up what it called "Europe's clean energy transition." In total, it envisages extra investment of 210 billion euros ($220.87 billion) between 2022 and 2027. When it comes to renewables' share in the EU's energy mix, the Commission has proposed that the current target of 40% by 2030 should be increased to 45%. The Commission's proposals came on the same day the governments of Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium said they would aim for a combined target of at least 65 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030. By the middle of the century, they are aiming for 150 GW of capacity. On the fossil fuel front, the situation is a challenging one. Russia was the biggest supplier of both petroleum oils and natural gas to the EU last year, according to Eurostat. The EU's desire to wean itself off Russian hydrocarbons following the latter's invasion of Ukraine means it will need to find oil and gas from other parts of the world to plug supply gaps. The Commission said as much as 1.5 to 2 billion euros of investment would be needed to secure oil supply. To import enough liquefied natural gas and pipeline gas from other sources, an estimated 10 billion euros will be needed by 2030. All the above comes at a time when the EU has said it wants to be carbon neutral by 2050. In the medium term, it wants net greenhouse gas emissions to be cut by at least 55% by 2030, which the EU calls its "Fit for 55" plan. The Commission said REPowerEU could not work without what it called "a fast implementation of all Fit for 55 proposals and higher targets for renewables and energy efficiency." In this new reality, gas consumption in the EU would "reduce at a faster pace, limiting the role of gas as a transitional fuel," the Commission said. "However, shifting away from Russian fossil fuels will also require targeted investments for security of supply in gas infrastructure and very limited changes to oil infrastructure alongside large-scale investments in the electricity grid and an EU-wide hydrogen backbone," it added. "In parallel, some of the existing coal capacities might also be used longer than initially expected, with a role for nuclear power and domestic gas resources too," the Commission said.
Grid monitor warns of U.S. blackouts in 'sobering report' - The central and upper Midwest, Texas and Southern California face an increased risk of power outages this summer from extreme heat, wildfires and extended drought, the nation’s grid monitor warned yesterday. In a dire new assessment, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) described regions of the country pushed closer than ever toward energy emergencies by a combination of climate change impacts and a transition from traditional fossil fuel generators to carbon-free renewable power.“’Extreme’ doesn’t mean ‘rare,’” John Moura, director of reliability assessment and performance analysis at NERC, said during a media briefing. “We know these conditions are not rare,” he said of the growing siege of drought, flooding and severe storms.“It’s a very sobering report. It’s clear the risks are spreading,” Moura said.NERC’s analysis examined the potential punch of extreme weather, which may wreak havoc on everything from reduced hydropower to transmission lines brought down by wildfires. Grid operators are dealing with an increasing reliance on intermittent resources like wind and solar as coal units retire and the reliability and emissions of gas resources comes under scrutiny. How the summer unfolds also may have political ramifications, as it could affect public support for President Joe Biden’s push to decarbonize the U.S. grid by 2035. The NERC report also highlighted what it called an increased, urgent hazard to grid operations from the electronic controls that link wind and solar farms to high-voltage grid networks. The devices, called power inverters, must be programmed to “ride through” short-term disturbances, such as the loss of a large power plant or high-voltage line, but too often they are not, Moura said. Those that shut down compound stress on the grid, he added in a briefing yesterday.The report cited incidents in May and June of last year when the Texas system was hit with widespread solar farm shutdowns, followed by similar outages in California between June and August. The unexpected events disrupted traditional power plants, interfered with grid recovery operations and caused some outages of customer-owned power units, NERC said. “That is one of the most dangerous things to happen on the bulk power system,” Moura said about the inverter disruption issue, because grid operators can be caught by surprise by the outages just when the finely balanced systems are already dealing with instability.
FERC chair on grid: 'The old way doesn't work' -The growing threat of power outages fueled by extreme weather calls for new approaches to grid oversight, the head of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said yesterday, adding that utilities and grid operators should “think differently.” In the face of droughts and heat waves worsened by climate change, the commission must advance new policies to modernize power markets, build more transmission lines and safeguard energy infrastructure, said FERC Chair Richard Glick. Regulators, energy providers and others also need to adjust to the “new normal” as extreme weather events become more common, according to Glick. “The old way doesn’t work anymore. We need to figure out a new approach, a much more reliable approach, and that’s what we’re trying to do here at FERC,” he said. Glick’s remarks came during a call with reporters yesterday after FERC’s monthly meeting, where the commission was briefed on summer grid conditions. The commission also approved three new natural gas projects, although FERC’s overall natural gas permitting policies remain unsettled. FERC staff presented their own report on energy markets and reliability this summer one day after the release of a dire summer grid assessment from the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) (Energywire, May 19). . Similarly to the NERC assessment, FERC’s analysis warned that swaths of the Midwest, the West and Texas are at risk of power outages in the coming months in the event of extreme heat or other weather events. While Glick, a Democrat, said the FERC report underscored the need for more transmission lines and changes in U.S. power markets, Republican commissioners highlighted how retiring fossil fuel power plants may be exacerbating reliability challenges. The Midwestern grid region, for example, is at a “high risk” of power shortfalls due to a decline in generation capacity this year relative to last year. Power shortfalls could occur during extreme temperatures, during periods of low wind power or in the event of generation outages in the coming months, FERC staff said in a presentation on the findings. The staff analysis showcased the need for more natural gas infrastructure to support generators, and for regulators to address state energy policies that are “reliability-impairing,” said Republican Commissioner James Danly. He also questioned whether more investments in the electric transmission system would solve the reliability challenges. “There is, in the minds of some, an idea that as long as we get the transmission issue correct, everything else will eventually solve itself. I am simply a skeptic,” Danly said.
PJM sees need for thermal power plants to protect against blackout risks amid rising electrification -Combining about 33 GW of electrification load with a 70% carbon-free generating fleet sharply shifts the risks of blackouts to the winter from the summer, reinforcing the need for enough fossil-fueled and nuclear power plants to meet demand, the PJM Interconnection said in a report Tuesday.The analysis shows an increasing need for resources that can quickly provide power as wind and solar taper during the afternoon while electricity use climbs, PJM said in the report, Energy Transition in PJM: Emerging Characteristics of a Decarbonizing Grid. The ramp in 2035 could be as high as 73 GW on some winter days, and natural gas- and coal-fired generation provided about half the ramping capacity under the modeling conducted by PJM, according to the report.“Increased electrification and the shift to a winter peaking system will fundamentally change what it means to be reliable in PJM,” Glen Thomas, president of the PJM Power Providers Group, a trade organization, said Wednesday. “Decarbonization is important, but it must be done reliably, and reliability is going to be more challenging than it has been in the past.”The PJM report builds on one issued in December by looking at issues such as electrification. The report’s findings should be seen as “guideposts” for future study and discussion, according to the grid operator.The report is based on three 2035 scenarios: a 40% carbon-free "base" scenario, a 50% “policy” scenario that matched state energy goals in the PJM area, and a 70% “accelerated” scenario.Carbon-free resources made up about 39% of the power produced in PJM in 2021, according to Monitoring Analytics, the grid operator’s market monitor.Last year, gas-fired generation accounted for 37.9% of the power produced in PJM, followed by nuclear at 32.8%, coal at 22.2%, and wind, solar and hydroelectric at a combined 6.2%, Monitoring Analytics said in an annual market report released in March.PJM system planners have long focused on getting through the hottest summer days, and generators and the market gave little attention to the winter, according to Mike Jacobs, a senior energy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists.However, with electrification, P JM expects winter-time demand would increase 15% and summer load would climb 7%, making winter the grid operator's peak period, according to the grid operator's analysis.
6 Years Late And 250% Over Budget: Georgia's Newest Nuclear Plant - It has not been a good week for advocates of new nuclear power plant construction in the US. An energy cooperative in Georgia, the Municipal Energy Authority of Georgia (MEAG), announced in a recent filing that the new twin unit Vogtle 3 and 4 nuclear generating stations approaching completion in Waynesboro, Georgia were now likely to cost roughly $34 billion. MEAG, along with other electric co-ops like Oglethorpe Power and Dalton Utilities own minority stakes in the nuclear facility along with majority owner Georgia Power. The two Westinghouse design AP1000 reactors, which are now scheduled to enter commercial service in 2023, were originally estimated to cost $14 billion and enter commercial service in 2016/2017, that is, six years late and 250% over budget. And people wonder why this technology is still struggling for commercial respectability. As for regulators, the Georgia Public Service Commission (PSC) might sound to some like an extension of Georgia Power’s legal and accounting departments. PSC Commissioner Nichols has extolled the virtues of this wildly expensive plant on two interesting grounds. • First, he cited the likelihood of a large carbon tax, which we should point out, most Republicans strongly oppose. • And second, he emphasized the so-called “war on fossil fuels”. Sorry but anyone watching oil and gas stock prices lately knows the war on fossil fuels is as real as the war on Christmas. Bottom line: we would expect the Georgia PSC to disallow a token amount of the egregious cost overruns, the company will respond publicly by lamenting a grievous financial wrong, while its stock and bonds rally strongly. To us, few words define this AP1000 saga as well as “debacle.” Let's take a look at what was initially promised. Six year construction times, factory built modules to speed up construction, and a commercial service cost of $6,400 per kilowatt. Instead, we see a fourteen-year construction project at an astounding $15,500 per kilowatt. It isn’t even controversial to say this technology is deader than a proverbial doornail in the US. What’s more important is that the small modular reactor business has made many of the same claims (factory built, short construction times, smaller physical footprint), all of which deserve increasing scrutiny. But the key energy statistic of the week was from Europe where last year they spent about $40 billion to add 26,000 MWs of renewables. In the US we’re spending $34 billion for 2200 MWs. That makes Vogtle ten times as expensive, on a MW basis, as the European alternatives. Even after adjusting for the fact that renewables only produce about one third of the time, compared to 90% of the time for a well-run nuke, Vogtle looks expensive.
Shale Academy shows off career options — Some students at Southern Local got a chance to see some of the offerings at the Utica Shale Academy last week and the careers they could prepare for as the school In Demand Jobs Week.The days held in the rain at the Utica Shale Academy included a chance for students in grades 8th, 9th and 10th to see the virtual welder in action and the operation of the large backhoe and forklift behind the building in the park, picking up tires and pallets.Looking on were some of the board members from Southern Local, the three county commissioners and two people running for state office who have spent time in the past helping schools like the Utica Shale Academy find funding for projects to teach students about job skills for those not going to college.“This is a celebration of the top jobs in Ohio,” said Monica Robb Blasdel, running for State Rep. for the area, once the Ohio maps are finalized. “Bill and his team are doing a great job right here in Salineville.”Blasdel was involved with a task force for workforce development for the former Lt. Governor Mary Taylor starting in 2011 and said it is important for students to realize with credentials they can find a job right out of high school making $50,000 per year or more. State Senator Michael Rulli was involved in getting the school $400,000 in funding toward the construction of an indoor/outdoor welding lab. Rulli points out there are jobs here without going $100,000 in debt for college and he is honored to be part of helping with the growth of the Utica Shale Academy.
OH Utica Landowners Leased for Oil Benefit from High Crude Price - Marcellus Drilling News - While virtually all of the Marcellus/Utica drilled in Pennsylvania produces either dry natural gas or wet gas (NGLs), the Utica in certain places of Eastern Ohio produces crude oil. Landowners in Ohio who lease their property and have crude gushing out of the ground may feel like Jed Clampett with bubblin’ crude prices fetching north of $100 per barrel. However, Bidenflation is eating away at the higher royalties those landowners receive. The cost of everything has gone up–from gasoline and diesel fuel to livestock feed, fertilizer, and groceries.
MWCD negotiates oil and gas lease with Encino — The Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District has completed negotiations for an oil and gas lease for Utica Shale development for nearly 7,300 acres, the largest land lease to date on MWCD property, at Tappan Lake in Harrison County.The lease agreement with Encino Energy was approved by the MWCD Board of Directors for review during their meeting May 20.“The lease for property at Tappan Lake continues our tradition of balancing our desire to upgrade our operations and infrastructure for public enjoyment, renew and increase our focus on improving the watershed and water quality and protecting our resource by requiring enhanced environmental protections,” said Gordon Maupin, president of the MWCD Board of Directors.Revenues from past leasing have allowed MWCD to invest and target nearly $200 million to upgrade facilities through a master plan redesign. Phase one of the master plan is now complete, totaling about $130 million in new project funding.New campgrounds were constructed, and aging areas were renovated. Atwood, Charles Mill, Piedmont, Pleasant Hill, Seneca and Tappan Lake campgrounds now offer campsites with full hook-up, and 50-amp power service with level pads. Each camp area also has new, Americans with Disabilities Act-compliant restroom and shower facilities with laundry.
10 Years Later: No Gusher of Jobs - – One by one, the plants shut down in quick succession. Companies that relocated to the Mahoning Valley to support shale exploration – an industry many projected would be the next economic boom for the region – closed their doors as the promise of big oil and gas returns faded. Texas-based Exterran Energy Solutions, a fabricator of high-end oil and gas components, opened a new plant to great fanfare in 2013 with a $13.2 million investment at Salt Springs Road Business Park in Youngstown, only to close three years later and taking with it more than 75 jobs. Other companies and jobs related to the oil and gas supply chain followed. Legacy Management Solutions, a Texas-based oil field equipment supplier that opened a fabrication division in Brookfield Township in 2015, shut its doors in early 2019, eliminating about 100 jobs. Texas-based Weatherford LP, another oil field supplier, drastically downsized its operations at Performance Place Park in Youngstown about three years ago. According to Dun & Bradstreet, 250 were employed at the location shortly after it opened. Today it employs fewer than 10. Almost as quickly as they arrived, large oil and gas exploration companies abandoned the northern Utica. BP Exploration sold all of its assets in Trumbull County after spending tens of millions of dollars to secure lease agreements. Halcon Energy Resources did the same, blaming the poor performance of its wells in Trumbull County. Projections delivered a decade ago by an industry-funded study envisioned the oil and gas business creating more than 200,000 jobs in Ohio by 2015. The report was touted by then-Gov. John Kasich as the basis to move full-speed ahead on developing shale resources across the state, which would draw billions of dollars in new investment, he projected. Initially, investments poured in. Led by Chesapeake Energy Corp., big exploration companies that specialized in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling descended on eastern Ohio, gobbling up leases and initiating drilling programs to extract natural gas or oil from the relatively thin strata of shale 6,000 feet beneath the ground. Between 2011 and 2020, it’s estimated that more than $90 billion in drilling programs, leasehold agreements, pipeline construction, processing stations, refueling stations, natural-gas power plants, and other shale-related operations had taken root across the state, according to JobsOhio, the state’s private economic development arm. “These last 10 years of shale development have had a dramatic and positive effect on Ohio’s economy, workforce and energy portfolio,” the Ohio Oil and Gas Association said in a statement.“While the last decade has been exciting and challenging, we know that there is more development, growth and build-out ahead of us to fully realize the Utica and its benefits. Continued use of essential natural gas is both powering our lives and businesses and it is also leading to an overall cleaner environment.” But the picture isn’t as bright when it comes to new jobs and overall impact to local economies, say researchers who have challenged the economic viability and benefits of the oil and gas industry in Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. “In Ohio, it’s had either no net impact or perhaps a negative impact,” says Sean O’Leary, senior researcher with the Ohio River Valley Institute, a think tank established a year ago that conducts policy research to tackle economic challenges in Appalachia. This year, the organization produced two reports showing that shale development across 22 major gas-producing counties in Ohio, Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia between 2008 and 2019 has not delivered the promises hyped by the oil and gas industry a decade ago. In Ohio, the report focused on seven counties where natural gas and oil production is strongest: Carroll, Jefferson, Harrison, Belmont, Noble, Guernsey and Monroe. “These counties produced more than 95% of gas coming out of Ohio and actually suffered a net loss in employment,” O’Leary says. According to the think tank’s first report, issued in February, the seven Ohio counties ranked best among those in West Virginia and Pennsylvania in terms of gross domestic product growth when compared to the state and nation. They also, however, were among the worst- performing in terms of personal income, jobs and population. Collectively, these counties experienced an 8.4% decline in jobs – a loss of 6,777 positions – between 2008 and 2019, the report shows. Statewide, jobs grew at a rate of 3.9%.
Shale jobs won't top pre-pandemic levels until 2027 — The recovery of the shale patch workforce is still years in the making despite the frothy profits that rallying crude prices are generating for U.S. oil companies and their contractors. Employment in the U.S. oil and gas industry is expected to jump 12.5% this year to 971,000, according to Rystad Energy. But it will take another half decade before employment in the region tops pre-pandemic levels, according to new research from the industry consultant. Workers will have to wait until 2024 to see double-digit annual wage hikes. Pay this year is expected to climb 2.9%, according to Rystad. Oil companies are hesitant to boost wages dramatically as they seek to keep a lid on skyrocketing costs. As a result, rig workers look elsewhere for a higher pay, with renewables being the most popular landing spot. Workers in Midland, Texas, the heart of the Permian Basin, are battling a 10% jump in prices in the world’s busiest shale patch, and America’s No. 1 spot for inflation over the past year.
Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana are in a heated national competition to land a hydrogen hub --A total of $8 billion is up for grabs to states chosen to start one of four hydrogen hubs. The money is part of the infrastructure law, which in this project, hopes to assess the viability of a hydrogen economy from production to processing, delivery, storage and end use. Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana and dozens of other states are vying to be part of it. The Ohio Clean Hydrogen Hub Alliance has many partners; Kentucky has started a hydrogen work group; and Indiana considers itself a hydrogen leader. The U.S. government is encouraging all to apply. Applications will open this summer. At least two of the hydrogen hubs will involve blue hydrogen, which uses natural gas — something Ohio has a lot of. CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce Steve Stivers thinks the state has a good chance of being selected.“For us, here at the Chamber, it’s about making the world greener. Natural gas burns cleaner than almost any other fuel — not quite as clean as green hydrogen. There’s going to happen somewhere, why not have them happen in Ohio?” he asks.To make blue hydrogen, you combine fossil fuels with steam and heat them up. This produces carbon dioxide and hydrogen. The two gases are separated, and the CO2 is captured and then stored underground. But there are methane gas leaks in the process. It's different from green hydrogen, which is cleaner. It uses electrolysis where electricity splits hydrogen from oxygen molecules in water. Ohio wants a blue hydrogen hub to use its natural gas. Researchers at Cornell and Stanford, in the publication Energy and Engineering, say the carbon footprint to create blue hydrogen is more than 20% greater than using either natural gas or coal directly for heat, or about 60% greater than using diesel oil for heat. Exactly, says Ohio River Valley Institute Senior Researcher Sean O'Leary. He says it's a bad idea for a number of reasons but he's focusing on the economic ones.“Hydrogen is too expensive and inefficient for use in mass consumption applications like automobiles, home heating and generating electricity, and the so-called clean hydrogen that hub supporters talk about is even more costly than conventional hydrogen,” he says.He says the cleaner alternatives are electric vehicles, electric heat pumps and wind and solar power. The Chamber's Stivers has a counter to that.“The difference between hydrogen and solar and wind is the wind doesn’t always blow in Ohio and the sun doesn’t always shine in Ohio. You can make hydrogen in Ohio every minute of every day,” he says.
Federal legislation introduced aimed at preventing oil spills in the Great Lakes -- Democratic Michigan Senator Gary Peters has introduced legislation to strengthen federal pipeline safety measures and mandate better oil spill cleanup methods. The new legislation is called Preventing Releases of Toxic Environment Contaminants Threatening Our Great Lakes Act – called PROTECT for short. It would require better oil spill detection, more preparation, and allows external funding for a recently created center in expertise on oil spills to be headquartered in Michigan. Peters said these are all needed. “To prevent a spill from occurring, or at least mitigating if one starts, to be able to shut off the pipeline as quickly as possible to minimize the impact, also the cleanup afterwards.” Almost twelve years ago an Enbridge oil pipeline burst and spilled oil into a tributary of the Kalamazoo River near Marshall. The U.S. Environmental Protection agency said the spill amounted to more than one million gallons. Enbridge operators did not shut down the line for hours because they didn’t believe the sensor alarms. It was among the nation's worst inland oil spills. Peters said it showed how fresh water systems are at risk and it could happen elsewhere. Currently there's concern among environmentalists, some business groups, and others about Enbridge's Line 5, the nearly 70-year-old twin pipelines sitting on the lake bed of the Straits of Mackinac which connects Lakes Michigan and Huron. Ship anchors have twice hit Line 5. Studies indicate an oil spill could spread along Michigan's coasts for miles, harming wildlife and fish and damaging tourism. Peters said his legislation goes further than concern about Line 5. “This is legislation that’s focused on all of the pipelines in the Great Lakes Basin. All of them could potentially cause a significant ecological disaster,” Peters said. In the aftermath of the Kalamazoo River oil spill, the National Academy of Sciences made recommendations on methods to clean up oil in a fresh water system. “There are a number of best practices that should be used when cleaning up a spill in freshwater. And we're going to put those into statute, not just make them recommendations, but actually make them law,” Peters said.
Airport authority brokers new deals with CNX to incentivize drilling and, possibly, make fuel from natural gas - When the airport and the company now known as CNX Resources signed their Marcellus Shale gas agreement in 2013, there was the potential to drill as many as 45 wells on the campus of Pittsburgh International Airport. The Cecil-based gas firm drilled 14, then stopped. On Friday, the airport authority approved two new agreements with CNX that would incentivize more drilling, including in the deeper and drier Utica Shale layer. Over the next five years, the airport will act as a marketing agent for CNX to secure customers for the gas that would come from yet-to-be drilled Utica wells. In order to be burned as airline fuel or in vehicles, that gas would need to be either compressed or liquefied — that is, cooled to a point where it turns into a liquid. That would also require the vehicles and/or plane engines to be retrofitted. All of this will take time and money, Christina Cassotis, CEO of the Allegheny County Airport Authority, acknowledged. But she believes that with an increasing number of transportation and aviation companies pledging to reduce their carbon emissions, natural gas — which burns cleaner than diesel and gasoline — might be a short-term draw. “Given the carbon commitments that are out there, how can we be part of helping the industry and airlines start to decarbonize immediately,” she said, invoking natural gas as a bridge fuel until cleaner fuels become available. Both the airport authority and CNX framed this as a path to hydrogen — the subject of billions in federal funding and a focus of the natural gas industry, which envisions using its product to make hydrogen with the resulting carbon dioxide emissions captured and sequestered in a massive Appalachian storage hub. CNX plans to build a liquefaction plant, according to spokesman Brian Aiello, with the timing yet to be determined. He also said it would produce a “naturally, not mechanically” compressed natural gas product, but the company declined to provide technical details, saying it’s proprietary. In a fact sheet, the company referenced its “unique autonomous ultra-high-pressure separation technology, which performs consistently in harsh and high-pressure conditions, manages gas streams to be used to generate electricity and power — as well as hydrogen — in the immediate proximity of the wells.”
Why Diversified Energy is beefing up its well-plugging capacity and expertise - At the end of last year, Diversified Energy had one well-plugging crew. Now, through two high-profile acquisitions and its own internal expansion, the big Appalachian natural gas producer has eight and will have nine working by the end of June. Diversified is one of the largest gas producers in Pennsylvania, although its portfolio is a lot different than Marcellus and Utica Shale drillers. Instead of drilling for natural gas, Diversified has amassed thousands of wells in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia in a series of acquisitions of legacy oil and gas wells. The attention that Diversified gives not only creates a stream of low-flow but scalable natural gas and oil but also cleans up emissions from the wells, some of which are decades old. Beyond the shale business, Diversified has intentionally built up the well-plugging business. It has plans to plug at least 200 wells a year in its footprint and will be scaling that up, both among its own wells as well as opportunities for other companies and governments with the hundreds of millions of dollars available now for projects through the federal infrastructure bill. Earlier this year, Diversified acquired NextLVL Energy, a Pittsburgh-based well plugging company. Monday, it announced that it acquired Nick's Well Plugging, a Warren, Ohio-based firm. Diversified's well-plugging division has grown to 60 employees in less than six months, from the one internal crew to four added with NextLVL, two others they were growing internally and then two with Nick's. "With the combination of internal growth and these two acquisitions, we've grown from one to nine crews," One potential area of growth: The money that the states are receiving from the federal infrastructure bill to go toward cleaning up abandoned oil and gas wells. Pennsylvania, where oil and natural gas drilling was invented in the 19th century, has hundreds of thousands of abandoned wells just on its own. The infrastructure bill will give $400 million to Pennsylvania for the well plugging, along with at least $256 million in Ohio and at least $141 million in West Virginia. Diversified, with its big footprint in a business sector that is fragmented, is poised to capture some of that funding. Gray said that the company was talking to state governments throughout Appalachia. Diversified plugged 136 wells in 2021, including 33 that were done internally. It has 200 on the books to be plugged this year and have an internal goal of between 350 and 400 a year in the future with between 10 and 12 Diversified teams. That would be a mixture of at least 200 already committed along with between 150 and 200 more that would be done beyond Diversified's operations, according to a company presentation released Monday. Gray said most well plugging projects are short-term, between one and four days. The major cost, beyond labor, is the cement that is used for the most part in plugging old oil and gas wells, although it can also be used with cast-iron plugs. The wells themselves are between 1,500 and 4,000 feet deep, which are not anywhere near as deep as the Marcellus and Utica shales.
Environmentalists petition feds to dump LNG by rail – - Environmental groups are urging the Biden administration to reverse a Trump-era rule that allows rail shipments of liquified natural gas (LNG). The groups say the war in Ukraine, and the subsequent plans by the White House to increase LNG exports, should not derail the Department of Transportation’s proposal to reinstate limits on LNG-by-rail. “We cannot let an energy crisis that comes out of Ukraine turn into a blanket thrown over the climate crisis,” said Tracy Carluccio, of the Delaware Riverkeeper Network, during a virtual press conference Wednesday. “The climate crisis is the fight of our lives, it’s the fight of our time.” The Delaware Riverkeeper Network, along with half a dozen other advocacy groups, petitioned the Department of Transportation on Wednesday to follow through on their plan to suspend a Trump-era rule that opened up the nation’s railways to LNG. While industry advocates say rail transport is safe, a leak of LNG carries risk of explosion. The petition also urges the Biden administration to outright ban any LNG-by-rail due to both safety hazards, and the climate impacts of expanding fossil fuel infrastructure and development.Carluccio says the groups are against all forms of LNG production and transport, including pipelines. “We leave it in the ground, that’s basically the answer,” Carluccio said. “We’re not going to be able to ever safely move it, process it, or export it.” Prior to a new Trump administration rule enacted in 2020, LNG rail transport permits faced steep hurdles, and only a few were approved through a “special permit,” including a plan to send LNG via rail across the Delaware River to Gibbstown, New Jersey. But in an effort to encourage natural gas infrastructure and expand LNG transportation beyond pipelines, the Department of Transportation under Trump reversed long-standing practice to allow a regular permitting procedure. No permits have been issued for LNG-by-rail since that 2020 rule change.The Biden administration decided to study the safety and environmental impacts of LNG-by-rail and has proposed rescinding the new rule. Public comment ended in December and the Pipeline Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA), a division of the Dept. of Transportation, is expected to issue a decision at the end of June. But the advocates worry the administration’s push to expand LNG exports as European countries seek to halt use of Russian natural gas, could mean it changes its decision on LNG-by-rail.
Mineral interest owners sue Gov. Justice over new forced oil and gas well unitization law - Senate Bill 694 is sweeping legislation that takes eect June 7, 90 days from its passage. Over 40 pages, the new law sets application requirements for horizontal well unit controllers seeking to combine oil and gas tracts to drill wells, expands the state body that regulates deep well drilling and gives options for compensation to nonconsenting owners entitled to lease an oil and gas estate. SB 694 changes the share of oil and gas production to which a royalty owner is entitled. State code had held that royalty owners and well operators each should obtain their “just and equitable share of production” from a pool of oil and gas. SB 694 deønes a pool as an underground accumulation of gas or petroleum in a reservoir. The new law changes state code to hold that royalty owners may get their share of production from a unit or unconventional oil or gas reservoir, in addition to a pool. SB 694 deønes a unit as the acreage on which wells may be drilled and an unconventional reservoir as any geologic formation that yields oil or gas that can’t be produced economically except by horizontal or multilateral well-boring or hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking. Brian Corwin and fellow plainti Scott Sonda, 50, say that’s a crucial change that will result in gas companies taking gas from mineral owner tracts and never paying for it without running afoul of the new law. The bill establishes a mechanism for unitizing wells without 100% support from mineral interest owners in a given formation. Unitization is the combination of two or more oil and gas tracts or tract portions to form a consolidated well unit. The bill requires applicants who control a horizontal well unit seeking to unitize tracts to have agreement from royalty owners of 75% or more of net acreage in the target formation proposed to be included in the horizontal well unit with respect to the royalty interest. For oil and gas interests with no lease, owners entitled to lease an oil and gas estate could surrender the oil and gas underlying the tract to participating operators, including the applicant, proportionate to their interest in the horizontal well unit. If not agreed upon, that total would be the weighted average amount paid, per net mineral acre, by the applicant to the owners in third-party transactions for acquiring the oil and gas mineral estate in the same target formation underlying the horizontal well unit. For royalty owners of leased tracts who have not consented to unitization, the West Virginia Oil and Gas Conservation Commission would require that unitization consideration be paid to royalty interest owners totaling 25% of a weighted average monetary bonus amount on a net mineral acre basis, and a production royalty percentage of 80% of the weighted average production royalty percentage paid to other owners of leased unit tracts in the same target formation.
Natural Gas Production Growth to Continue in May, Driven by Haynesville, Appalachia, Permian - The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is modeling sizable natural gas production increases from several major plays next month, including the Appalachian Basin and the Haynesville Shale.Total natural gas production from seven key onshore regions is set to climb 750 MMcf/d from May to June, reaching 91.750 Bcf/d, the agency said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), published Monday. The Haynesville is set to lead growth among the seven regions from May to June, adding 239 MMcf/d to reach 15.102 Bcf/d, while Appalachian production is set to grow 194 MMcf/d month/month to 35.670 Bcf/d, the agency said. Along with the Haynesville and Appalachia, the DPR tracks production trends across the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara shales, as well as the Anadarko and Permian basins. The oily Eagle Ford and Permian are expected to post natural gas production gains of 131 MMcf/d and 169 MMcf/d, respectively, from May to June, according to EIA. Smaller natural gas production increases are expected out of the Bakken (up 27 MMcf/d) and the Niobrara (up 8 MMcf/d) for the period. Only the Anadarko (down 18 MMcf/d) is expected to see declining output from May to June, the DPR data show. The latest DPR arrives at a time when supply adequacy concerns have fueled outsized volatility in natural gas futures trading. This month’s forecast production gains are largely in line with the growth rate modeled for the month-earlier period. A look back at recent DPR data shows overall natural gas output from the seven regions increasing at a quickening pace so far in 2022. Meanwhile, crude oil production among the seven regions is expected to grow by 142,000 b/d from May to June, reaching 8.761 million b/d, according to the DPR. EIA modeled an 88,000 b/d increase for the Permian, with the Eagle Ford adding 27,000 b/d and the Bakken chipping in 17,000 b/d of incremental output. Smaller crude oil production gains were predicted for the Anadarko (up 4,000 b/d), Appalachia (up 3,000 b/d) and Niobrara (up 3,000 b/d) regions. Total drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells declined by 70 units from March to April, falling to 4,223, the latest DPR data show. The Permian DUC backlog saw the largest decrease at 46, leaving the play with 1,256 DUC wells as of April. Declines were also recorded in the Anadarko (down 12), Appalachia (down three), Bakken (down seven), Eagle Ford (down six) and Niobrara (down eight) regions. The Haynesville added 12 DUC wells to its backlog between March and April, according to EIA.
US natural gas prices retake $8.00 as additional European exports secured -Henry Hub (NG1:COM) natural gas traded above $8.00 Monday, and futures prices for gas delivered from June 2022 through March of 2023 now sit above the $8.00 level.
Monday, Poland's PGNiG signed an agreement to purchase 3 million tons per year of liquified natural gas from Sempra (SRE); the news comes less than one year after PGNIG terminated an agreement with Sempra (SRE) to purchase 2 million tons per year.
While rising natural gas prices have been well received by energy investors, the President of the Industrial Energy Consumers of America trade group said Sunday, "the manufacturing sector cannot invest and create jobs without assurances that our natural gas and electricity prices will not be imperiled by excessive LNG exports."
As with crude oil production (USO), US natural gas production (UNG) has missed growth estimates so far in 2022; pipeline constraints out of the Marcellus, supply chain challenges and producer discipline have all contributed to slowing growth, as reflected in official production statistics from the EIA:
With oil product shortages popping up, and multi-fold price increases in nearly all energy commodities, investors are likely to focus on Washington's reaction to the burgeoning energy crisis.
Natural gas prices have already doubled this year. A hot summer could push them even higher - U.S. natural gas prices more than doubled since the start of the year, and this summer's air-conditioning season could send them soaring by at least another 25%. In the futures market, gas prices rose 4.4% Tuesday as hot spring weather in the Southern U.S. pressured a market that has already been concerned about tight supplies. The warmer weather is forecast to continue across the region. "In the last month, there has not been a meaningful uptick in U.S. lower 48 states production," said Matt Palmer, senior director North American natural gas at S&P Global Commodity Insights. "You're seeing exports running full out on LNG; power burn from the power sector is really strong and layer in the heat we're seeing and the expectation that the southern tier of the continent in May and June will see well above normal temperatures. That's a recipe for higher prices." Natural gas futures for June settled at $8.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up 123% for the year. A heat wave is expanding in the South, with temperatures above 100 degrees in some places. According to the National Weather Service, high temperature records are forecast to be tied or broken this week in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana. The higher natural gas prices are hitting U.S. businesses and consumers at a time when gasoline and record diesel fuel are at record levels. Palmer said utilities that normally switch to coal for power when natural gas prices surge are finding that coal is even more expensive — the equivalent of gas at $9 to $10 MMBtu. "The likelihood of prices in the double digits this summer is getting stronger by the day," Palmer said. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent Europe's gas prices sharply higher, U.S. prices have edged up as well. Russia was supplying about a third of Europe's gas. U.S. prices, however, are not directly linked to the global market, even as the country sends about 15% of its gas production overseas in the form of liquified natural gas. European prices are about four times higher for LNG. U.S. production fell sharply during the pandemic, and while it has restarted, it's been growing slowly. In February, monthly production was 115.2 billion cubic feet per day, down from 118.7 BCF in December, according to the latest government monthly data. Supply is tight in the U.S. market. The amount of gas in storage has been at an unusually low level, and cold spring weather followed by the heat wave has created more demand than normal at this time of year. That has made it more difficult to build inventories. Some of the gas that would be set aside for next winter is being used.
Natural Gas Futures Rebound Amid Smoldering Supply/Demand Imbalance Threats - Following a loss last week, natural gas futures bounced back on Monday as traders mulled reports of robust power burns and lighter production. The June Nymex contract gained 29.3 cents day/day and settled at $7.956/MMBtu. July rose 28.8 cents to $8.053. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. jumped 41.5 cents to $7.740 on Monday, with stout gains across most regions of the Lower 48. Production dipped slightly below 95 Bcf to start Monday after climbing above that threshold briefly last week, according to Bloomberg’s estimate. Output remained well below the 97 Bcf peak of the past winter, amplifying already simmering concerns about adequate storage supplies. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) most recently reported an injection of 76 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended May 6. The print fell shy of the five-year average increase of 82 Bcf and left inventories at a deficit to recent norms. Total Lower 48 working gas in underground storage stood at 1,643 Bcf, 312 Bcf below five-year average levels, according to EIA. At the same time, European demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) has held at solid levels amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. Countries across Europe are calling for LNG to gradually replace supplies of Russian natural gas. Rystad Energy also noted the threat of Russia preemptively cutting off pipeline exports of gas to parts of Europe in retaliation of Western sanctions and recent steps by Finland and Sweden to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, aka NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a first move, cut electricity supply to Finland over the weekend. He did not follow up with restrictions on gas flows, but “the likelihood remains in the near future,” said Rystad analyst Wei Xiong. Domestic demand is holding at elevated levels by May standards. Bespoke Weather Services cited strong power generation demand so far this month, driven by heat in the southern United States and lower wind generation over the weekend. Temperatures have eclipsed 100 in parts of Texas and the Southwest in May, and exceptional highs in the mid-90s were reported last week in the northern Plains. “Given the strength in power burns we are seeing, we still feel the risk to prices is skewed to the upside, and our lean is that we probably have not seen the highs in prices for the year, especially if our hotter forecast ideas pan out as we move into the meat of the summer season,” the firm said. Bespoke joined a chorus of other forecasters – from AccuWeather to the Farmer’s Almanac – in predicting above average heat for the Lower 48 this summer. This, the firm said, is likely to keep air conditioners cranking through the months ahead.
U.S. natgas futures rise 4% on output drop, warmer forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose about 4% on Tuesday to a one-week high on a preliminary drop in daily output and lifted forecasts for warmer weather and more air-conditioning demand over the next two weeks. Another spring heat wave in Texas boosted power demand, which was expected to hit a monthly record on Tuesday as homes and businesses cranked up air conditioners. U.S. front-month gas futures for June delivery rose 34.8 cents, or 4.4%, to settle at $8.304 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since May 5 when the contract settled at a 13-year high of $8.783. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states climbed to 94.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May from 94.5 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in November 2021. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop 1.9 bcfd to a near three-week preliminary low of 93.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania. Preliminary data is often revised, but if that drop stands, it would be the biggest one-day decline since freeze-offs shut wells in early February. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 89.6 bcfd this week to 88.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants held at 12.2 bcfd so far in May, the same as April. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. Russian gas exports to Europe slid to around 7.9 bcfd on Monday from about 8.2 bcfd on Sunday on the three mainlines into Germany: North Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route. That compares with an average of 11.9 bcfd in May 2021. Gas stockpiles in Northwest Europe - Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands - were about 14% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year, down from 39% below the five-year norm in mid-March, according to Refinitiv. Storage was currently about 36% of full capacity. That is healthier than U.S. inventories, which were around 16% below their five-year norm.
U.S. natgas futures rise 1% on output drop, higher demand forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Wednesday to a fresh one-week high on a drop in daily output over the past few days and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected. Traders noted prices were also supported by soaring power demand in Texas, which hit a monthly record high on Tuesday and was on track to break that on Wednesday as homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up to escape a spring heatwave. U.S. front-month gas futures for June delivery rose 6.4 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $8.368 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since May 5 for a second day in a row. On May 5, the front-month settled at a 13-year high of $8.783. U.S. gas futures have gained about 124% since the start of the year as higher global prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading around $28 per mmBtu in Europe and $21 in Asia. The U.S. contract rose to a 13-year high near $9 on May 6. U.S. gas futures lag far behind global prices because the United States is the world's top producer, with all the gas it needs for domestic use while capacity constraints inhibit exports of more LNG. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states climbed to 94.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May from 94.5 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in November 2021. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop 1.6 bcfd over the past three days to a three-week preliminary low of 93.7 bcfd on Wednesday. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold near 89.7 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants held at 12.2 bcfd so far in May, the same as April. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG.
US natural gas working stocks increased by 89 Bcf in the week ended May 13, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average slightly, but not by enough to calm supply concerns in the futures market. Storage inventories rose to 1.732 Tcf for the week ended May 13, the US Energy Information Administration reported May 19. The build was 2 Bcf more than an S&P Global Commodity Insights' survey of analysts calling for an 87 Bcf injection, but in line with S&P Global's supply-demand model's prediction of 89 Bcf. The injection was more than the 71 Bcf build reported during the corresponding week in 2021 as well as the five-year average build of 87 Bcf, according to the EIA data. As a result, stocks were 358 Bcf, or 17.1%, less than the year-ago level of 2.09 Tcf and 310 Bcf, or 15.2%, less than the five-year average of 2.042 Tcf. Week-over-week, the most recent storage report showed the deficit to the five-year average narrowing by 4 Bcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub June contract hovered near $8.19/MMBtu in the first five minutes of trading following the weekly storage report, down around 18 cents from May 18's settlement of $3.368/MMBtu, but subsequently climbed to trade at $8.35/MMBtu by 1pm ET. Market watchers have cautioned that although recent weekly storage builds have been in line with seasonal norms, refilling storage will require larger-than-average builds to compensate for starting this injection season at a sizeable deficit. Strong gas demand and comparatively lackluster production gains have stymied the market from realizing substantially above-average net injections. The main driver of gas demand growth so far this May has been gas-fired power demand. Unseasonably hot temperatures and limited fuel switching optionality have pushed US gas-fired power burn far above year-ago levels. Power burn has averaged 29.5 Bcf/d so far this May, up 3.4 Bcf/d, or 13%, from the same time last year, data from S&P Global showed. LNG feedgas demand also continues to outpace year-ago levels, with S&P Global data showing month-to-date demand averaging 12.4 Bcf/d, up from 10.6 Bcf/d last May. On the supply side, US gas production has averaged 93.6 Bcf/d so far this month, up 1.1 Bcf from last May, data from S&P Global showed. For the week ended May 13, production averaged 94 Bcf/d, up nearly 800 MMcf/d from the prior seven days (April 30 – March 6). A forecast by S&P Global's supply and demand model calls for a smaller build of 82 Bcf for the week ending May 20, which would widen the deficit to the five-year average to 325 Bcf. The corresponding week in 2021 saw a 102 Bcf build. Expectations for a smaller build into storage for the week ending May 20 are supported by lower supply and higher demand observed for the week in progress. Gas production averaged just 93.6 Bcf/d for May 14-19, down 400 MMcf/d from the previous seven days. Inflows from Canada have also fallen week-over-week, as pipeline constraints limit West Canada-to-Pacific Northwest flows. Gas-fired power burn averaged 31.8 Bcf/d so far in the week in progress (May 14-19), up from averaging 29 Bcf/d for May 7-13. A heat wave in Texas and the Midcontinent has brought highs into record-setting ranges, spiking cooling demand.
U.S. natgas futures ease on rising output, mild forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Thursday on a slow increase in output and some forecasts calling for milder weather over the next two weeks. That small futures decline came despite a jump in spot power and gas prices in many parts of the country as consumers in California, Texas, Louisiana, Pennsylvania and elsewhere crank up air conditioners to escape an early spring heatwave. Traders also said the market largely ignored a federal report showing a weekly storage build that was near normal levels for this time of year, as expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 89 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended May 13. That was close to the 87-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 71 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 87 bcf. U.S. front-month gas futures for June delivery fell 6.0 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $8.308 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Despite the decline, U.S. gas futures were still up about 120% since the start of the year as higher global prices have kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading around $28 per mmBtu in Europe and $22 in Asia. The U.S. contract rose to a 13-year high near $9 on May 6. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states climbed to 94.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May from 94.5 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in November 2021. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold near 90.0 bcfd this week and next, higher than its outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants held at 12.2 bcfd so far in May, the same as April. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to hit a six-week high of 13.1 bcfd on Thursday as some Gulf Coast plants exit maintenance outages.
NYMEX gas futures mark second day of losses amid profit-taking, cooler outlook - Following a bullish first half of the week for NYMEX front-month natural gas futures, sellers took control of the market toward the latter part of the week with prices seeing losses May 19 and 20. At the end of trading on May 20, the NYMEX June 2022 natural gas futures contract shed 22.5 cents to close at $8.083/MMBtu but still managed to tack on 42 cents for the week when weighed against the May 13 closing price. The downside action stemmed from profit-taking based on a cooler temperature outlook for the central portion of the US over the next several days, including Texas, which is the largest natural gas consuming state in the US. With the expiration of the NYMEX June gas futures contract coming up the week of May 22, gas market players will be mainly focused on early June temperatures, which appear to be evolving toward less hot conditions, according to the major weather forecast models. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a gas storage build of 89 Bcf for the week ended May 13, which was perceived as generally neutral compared to market expectations, the upcoming storage report for the week ending May 20 should come in more bullish. This is because the storage injection will be reflective of sweltering temperatures across key demand areas of the nation. Gas market participants are projecting a storage build ranging from as little as 69 Bcf to as much as 80 Bcf due to exceptionally warm temperatures across the Great Plains and the southern tier of the US for the reflective storage week. In the spot market, physical natural gas prices were mixed to higher in the eastern portion of the US as widespread above-average temperatures move into the region over the weekend, while cash prices saw losses virtually everywhere else across the nation due to cooler conditions. Spot at Tennessee Zone 6, delivered North was the high price leader, averaging $9.745/MMBtu for the May 20 and 21, up $1.39/MMBtu. Algonquin, city-gates, which serves the Boston market, rose 58 cents to average $8.48/MMBtu. Meanwhile, cash prices at the NYMEX-sensitive Henry Hub shed 19.5 cents at $7.975/MMBtu. Katy came off 21.5 cents to average $7.79/MMBtu as the weather forecast models show the potential for heavy rainfall to move into the Lone Star State and linger in place for a few days, which will take a Texas-sized bite out of recent scorching temperatures in the region. Despite an impressive very late-season snowstorm that is taking aim at cities such as Denver, Colorado, spot prices at nearby hubs saw losses in the Rockies. The Cheyanne Hub went down 25 cents to average $7.54/MMBtu, while the White River Hub came off 27.5 cents to $7.505/MMBtu. It was much of the same story further West, with SoCal Gas losing 38 cents to average $7.60/MMBtu, while PG&E city-gate eroded 15 cents to $9.58/MMBtu. On the Redwood Path, PG&E Malin was down 12 cents to average $7.66/MMBtu. Meanwhile, dry gas production remains sluggish at around 95 Bcf/d, while power burn demand is averaging over 6 Bcf/d compared to year-ago data. Gas market bears are pointing to near-term cooler temperatures and the potential dry gas production to finally gain traction in the weeks ahead, owing to the robust increase in active oil and gas rigs in recent months.
Chevron Sanctions Ballymore Gulf Of Mexico Project - U.S. oil and gas supermajor Chevron has sanctioned the Ballymore project in the deepwater U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Chevron said that the project, with a design capacity of 75,000 barrels of crude oil per day, would be developed as a three-mile subsea tieback to the existing Chevron-operated Blind Faith platform. “Chevron’s U.S. Gulf of Mexico production is some of the lowest carbon intensity production in our portfolio at around 6 kg CO2 equivalent per barrel of oil equivalent and is a fraction of the global industry average,” said Steve Green, president of Chevron North America Exploration and Production. “Once complete, Ballymore is expected to add a reliable supply of U.S. produced energy to help meet global demand. The project is designed to lower development costs by using a subsea tieback approach, standardized equipment, and repeatable engineering solutions – leveraging existing operated infrastructure,” Green added. Ballymore will be Chevron’s first development in the Norphlet trend of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The project will be in the Mississippi Canyon area in around 6,600 feet of water, about 160 miles southeast of New Orleans. According to the supermajor, potentially recoverable oil-equivalent resources for Ballymore are estimated at more than 150 million barrels. The project, which involves three production wells tied back via one flowline to the nearby Blind Faith facility, will require an investment of approximately $1.6 billion. Oil and natural gas production will be transported via existing infrastructure. First oil is expected in 2025. Chevron subsidiary Chevron U.S.A. Inc. is the operator of the Ballymore project with a 60 percent working interest. Co-owner TotalEnergies has a 40 percent interest.
Canceled lease sales raise new questions for offshore drilling - The cancellations of three offshore drilling lease sales this week have injected a degree of uncertainty into the future of offshore drilling. The canceled auctions mean there are no sales now scheduled, and it’s unclear precisely when that will change. The Interior Department is working on a new leasing plan, but it has not said when that will be issued. The decision to cancel the sales comes as the nation is focused on high gasoline prices. Republicans, who hope to win back congressional majorities this fall, have seized on the price hikes to blast the administration for its energy policies. The administration is conscious of those political attacks, even as it separately gets the squeeze from the left to uphold President Biden’s campaign pledge to ban new oil and gas permitting on public lands and in public waters. It’s all created an uncertain outlook for energy firms, which don’t feel positive about the future of lease sales under the Biden administration. “It’s clearly not very optimistic as we look to the near term,” said Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, an energy trade group. The administration announced late Wednesday that it was canceling the three scheduled auctions that would have opened up space in Alaska’s Cook Inlet and the Gulf of Mexico for drilling. Spokeswoman Melissa Schwartz said in an email that the sale near Alaska was being canceled because of a “lack of industry interest,” while the Gulf of Mexico sales would not be held because of factors including “conflicting court rulings.” This cancellations don’t impact any activities related to current oil production, but they do block the industry from getting new leases, which kick off the lengthy process for getting fuel out of the ocean. The announcement erased the only offshore sales the department had on its agenda.. The Interior Department is now putting together a new five-year plan. Asked for an update, Schwartz said that the department is “actively developing its five-year plan for the offshore program” and noted that the industry is already leasing 10.9 million acres in federal waters. The law governing the offshore leasing requires the Interior secretary to “prepare and periodically revise, and maintain an oil and gas leasing program.” It specifies that the program should include a “schedule of proposed lease sales” and should be based on the country’s “national energy needs.” Sara Rollet Gosman, an environment and energy law professor at the University of Arkansas, said that if the Biden administration didn’t want to schedule any lease sales in the forthcoming plan, it could argue that because of climate change, new sales would not be in the nation’s energy needs. “I think the federal government can make a good argument that our national energy needs have changed, and that renewable energy should be our focus and that therefore we do not need to have a schedule of proposed lease sales,” she said. Gosman described it as a “viable” argument, though it would surely face legal challenges. She said the administration could also take a more “cautious” approach of having “a five-year schedule of just a few lease sales.” One possible clue to the department’s plans for at least the near future might be found in its budget request for fiscal 2023 — which projects a 94 percent drop in bonuses and rents the department would collect from offshore oil and gas leasing. Milto, of the National Ocean Industries Association, said he reads this as the department not planning to hold any oil and gas lease sales during that fiscal year, which ends in October 2023.
USA Lease Sale Cancellation Leaves Industry in Limbo -The cancellation of lease sales 258 (Cook Inlet) and 259, 261 (Gulf of Mexico) that were planned under the 2017-2022 National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program elevates regulatory uncertainty for oil and gas investors. That’s what Dominika Rzechorzek, an oil and gas analyst at Fitch Solutions, told Rigzone, adding that the move leaves the industry in limbo as the new five-year leasing program has not been published yet, “despite the rapidly approaching deadline of June 30”. “Thus, it remains uncertain if and when the Department of Interior (DOI) will hold future offshore leasing auctions,” Rzechorzek said. The Fitch Solutions analyst noted that the suspension of offshore lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico will have much broader implications as compared to the Cook Inlet lease sale, “given the much stronger interest in the acreage off U.S. southern states”. “The offshore Alaska lease sales have struggled to gain much interest and many have been cancelled before, for example Lease Sale 242 (Beaufort Sea) or 237 (Chukchi Sea) originally planned for 2015,” Rzechorzek said. The Fitch Solutions analyst outlined that the last Gulf of Mexico sale, conducted in November 2021 and later annulled in Judge Contreras’ verdict, attracted a number of bidders, “with the level of bids generated in this lease reflecting a heightened interest in the offshore Gulf of Mexico”. “Thus, despite growing regulatory uncertainty, we expected that the upcoming Gulf of Mexico leases would gain relatively strong interest, especially as the uncertainty over future of offshore lease sales has grown given lack of details on 2022-2027 Program,” Rzechorzek said. “We note that suspension of lease programs in the Gulf of Mexico will limit the ability of upstream companies to secure new acreage and pursue new developments to sustain level of oil and gas production despite natural decline in production from mature fields,” Rzechorzek added. “Should the suspension of lease sales be sustained, Gulf of Mexico would see a more rapid decline in output over the long term, as companies would struggle to replace output from mature fields with production from new developments. However, the near-term production outlook would not be affected to a large extent given a robust project pipeline announce by key oil and gas companies for the near future,” Rzechorzek continued. Rigzone showed this article to the DOI asking if the organization would like to send over a comment for inclusion. The DOI’s statement can be seen below:“Due to lack of industry interest in leasing in the area, the Department will not move forward with the proposed Cook Inlet OCS oil and gas lease sale 258. The Department also will not move forward with lease sales 259 and 261 in the Gulf of Mexico region, as a result of delays due to factors including conflicting court rulings that impacted work on these proposed lease sales”. In its response, the DOI also highlighted that, as of May 1, of the 10.9 million offshore acres under lease, the industry is not producing on 8.26 million acres, or 75.7 percent, and of the 24.9 million onshore acres under lease, the industry is not producing on 12.3 million acres, or 49.4 percent. There are also over 9,000 onshore permits that have been approved and are waiting to be used, the DOI outlined.
Manchin blasts Biden energy policies at budget hearing - Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) claimed the Biden administration’s oil and gas leasing policies have “put America’s energy security at risk” during testimony by Interior Secretary Deb Haaland on Thursday. In a hearing on the Interior Department’s fiscal 2023 budget request, Manchin pushed back on the administration’s repeated references to the industry’s 9,000 unused leases to explain the energy crisis, arguing the administration has the power to pressure industry to use them. “If the administration’s argument is that industry is sitting on these leases … why don’t they do something about it?” Manchin said. “For example, if the concern is that too many leases are not being developed in a timely manner, the department could increase the rental rates over time to provide a financial disincentive against holding leases for speculation alone.” Manchin conceded that “new lease sales would not immediately increase production,” but claimed the administration’s focus on current production “puts America’s energy security at risk.” The White House said in a March fact sheet that President Biden “is calling on Congress to make companies pay fees on wells from their leases that they haven’t used in years and on acres of public lands that they are hoarding without producing.”Although Manchin at the time expressed openness to raising leasing fees, he said at the Thursday hearing that he believed the Interior Department could do so without legislation. Republicans and the energy industry have blamed soaring gas prices in part on the Biden administration’s policies on oil and gas leasing, including a since-ended freeze on lease sales on public lands. However, the full process of selling leases and drilling takes years and would not provide any immediate relief at the pump for consumers. In her testimony, Haaland addressed the Interior Department’s five-year schedule for offshore oil and gas leasing, saying the department will release its proposal by June 30, when the current program expires. “The previous Administration stopped work on the new five-year plan in 2018, so there has been a lot to do to catch up. Varying, conflicting litigation has also been a factor,” Haaland said. “As we take this next step, we will follow the science and the law, as we always do.” The hearing comes the week after the department canceled three planned lease sales in Alaska’s Cook Inlet and the Gulf of Mexico, citing lack of industry interest and conflicting court rulings, respectively. Separately, a federal court barred the administration from holding a different planned lease sale in the Gulf, which the administration has not appealed.
U.S. will propose new offshore oil and gas plan by June 30 (Reuters) - The Biden administration will propose a new five-year plan for offshore oil and gas development by June 30, the date when the current plan expires, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said on Thursday. The announcement comes as the administration has faced pressure from Republican lawmakers to expand domestic drilling to address soaring fuel costs. President Joe Biden, however, wants to reform the federal government's oil and gas program to consider its impacts on climate change. Haaland testified before the Senate energy committee to answer questions on the administration's 2023 budget proposal, but was grilled by Republican senators and Democrat Joe Manchin about her department's limited offering of new oil and gas leases on federal lands and waters and its failure to finalize a new five-year plan before the expiration of the current plan. "We are working expeditiously to move this forward," Haaland told the committee. The Interior department is required by law to produce a five-year schedule of offshore oil and gas auctions. The administration earlier this month scrapped the current plan's last three planned sales, in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. The department will issue a draft proposal by June 30, and according to its timeline, could finalize a plan by Nov. 30. Interior cannot hold any lease sales without a final program in place. The department last held an oil and gas auction for the Gulf of Mexico in November, but a court order later vacated that sale, saying the administration had failed to properly account for its impact on climate change. Manchin, during the hearing, said he is concerned that Interior's new five-year plan proposal for energy development in the U.S. outer continental shelf will not result in new oil and gas leasing.
Senators unload on Haaland, Granholm over gasoline prices - While Russian President Vladimir Putin has received much of the blame for rising gas prices, Sen. John Barrasso yesterday suggested the finger should instead be pointed at Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. As the national average for a gallon of unleaded gas hit a record high of $4.59 yesterday, lawmakers were working to spin the issue to their political advantage ahead of the summer travel season and the midterm elections. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm got a similar scolding from Republicans. Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the Senate Energy and Natural Resources ranking member, told Haaland during a budget hearing, “It seems like it’s Secretary Haaland’s price hike here, not Putin’s.” The administration’s dramatic reduction in new leasing and its promise to reform the federal oil and gas program in light of climate change has attracted scrutiny from oil and gas supporters. That’s only increased in recent months as Russia’s war against Ukraine, supply chain bottlenecks and global supply constraints roil oil and gas markets. Some of the strongest criticism aimed at Haaland came from her fellow Democrat, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, the committee’s chair, who often breaks with his party on energy and environmental issues. “We are holding this hearing during trying times,” Manchin told Haaland, adding that his frustration had hit “an all-time high” as the U.S. seeks to increase oil production in Iran and Venezuela in an attempt to replace Russian energy “while we are at the same time blocking increased energy production at home.” Manchin told Haaland that he backed the Interior Department’s decision last year to “pause” energy lease sales while the Biden administration conducted a review of the federal oil and gas program. But he added: “Almost a year and a half into the administration, and as the world begs for North American oil and gas, we still have no leases. … I’m sorry to say it has become crystal-clear that the pause is in fact a ban.”
How the courts have shaped Biden's leasing strategy - President Joe Biden is walking a fine line between taking aggressive climate action and promoting new oil and gas leasing — and some observers say his latest approach could be a winning strategy in court.After a federal judge last year blocked Biden’s pause on new lease sales as part of his climate Executive Order 14008, the administration has moved forward with some leasing while canceling other planned auctions.Legal experts say selective lease offerings may be a more defensible approach for Biden’s Interior Department, which is facing pressure from environmental groups that say the agency has discretion to place an outright ban on future oil and gas leases on public lands and federal waters. Last year’s ruling by Judge Terry Doughty of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana that struck down Biden’s leasing pause was a win for red states that had argued Interior had an obligation under the Mineral Leasing Act and Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act to continue to make areas available for onshore and offshore oil and gas drilling. Interior is fighting the ruling and made its case for its authority to implement a pause before a federal appeals court last week, but in the meantime, the agency says it is taking steps to comply with the decision by Doughty, a Trump appointee. Interior’s most recent action on oil and gas leasing came late last week, when the agency announced it would cancel the remaining offshore lease sales in the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s current five-year plan — Lease Sale 258 in Alaska’s Cook Inlet and two other sales in the Gulf of Mexico (Energywire, May 12).The decision came as a relief for climate activists who have been working to block any new offshore oil and gas leasing. But energy industry groups and Republican lawmakers warned that the loss of Lease Sale 258 — not long after the U.S. District Court for District of Columbia axed the 80 million-acre Lease Sale 257 in the Gulf of Mexico — would harm the United States.Pulling back on domestic production would have harmful consequences, supporters of new leasing said, and U.S. offshore drilling is less risky than fossil fuel production abroad.
Report: Southwest Indiana oil refinery could impact long-term health of residents nearby --Twelve oil refineries in the U.S. put unsafe levels of benzene gas into the air last year — including a refinery in Mount Vernon west of Evansville. That’s according to a new report by the Environmental Integrity Project. Over time, exposure to benzene can cause anemia and leukemia as well as damage your nervous system and immune system. CountryMark Refining and Logistics in Mount Vernon had benzene emissions last year that exceeded the level at which the federal government requires companies to take action. Benzene emissions from the CountryMark refinery dropped from 2006 to 2013. There has been a recent uptick in these emissions as tracked by the EPA's Toxic Release Inventory. CountryMark said an “upset” at the Mount Vernon facility in July caused the emissions to spike — but didn’t say what the upset was. “Who knows maybe there was some incident with those tanks or the equipment associated with them. But it's only about a quarter of a mile to a residential neighborhood in Mount Vernon — so it's really pretty close to where people are living," he said. Pelton said because of high oil prices, companies like CountryMark are making a lot of money right now. “This is the right time for refineries to use some of that money — not just as profit, but to reinvest in your physical plant to make it into better and safer shape," he said. The report by the Environmental Integrity Project shows about half of all U.S. oil refineries had benzene levels last year that the state of California says can cause long-term health risks. California has some of the most stringent environmental rules in the country. The report said many oil refineries are located near low-income and minority communities. The Environmental Integrity Project wants the Biden administration to enforce laws on benzene emissions and make good on its commitment to environmental justice.
US Gasoline Prices Hit New Record Amid Refinery Bottlenecks And Tight Supplies -- US retail gasoline prices soared to another record on Monday as global refineries struggled with adding new capacity ahead of the driving season. Before diving into Goldman Sachs' new commodity note explaining how global refining will be tight for the foreseeable future, last week, Saudi Energy Minister said, "the bottleneck is now to do with refining ... many refineries in the world, especially in Europe and the US, have closed." Goldman's commodity analyst Neil Mehta outlines a rash of refinery retirements, reduced Russian energy exports, recovering jet fuel demand, and tight global inventories for products, particularly diesel, have supported higher retail fuel prices. Mehta points out US product inventories are below a 10% five-year average, refining utilization rates are below normal, global natural gas prices are high, and demand for diesel remains robust. US product and total inventories are well below a five-year average. US refining utilization struggles to increase as the driving season begins. "We believe the oil market needs to price to demand destruction, which will drive the least elastic prices, such as those for distillate, higher," he said, adding tight inventories could last through this year and well into 2023. While the demand destruction has not begun yet (from what we have seen in the data), the price adjustments for refined products is starting to reprice drastically (in barrel equivalents below for easy comparisons)... A lack of refinery capacity is the culprit of rising fuel prices. The average cost of US gas prices at the pump on Monday morning is $4.483 and $5.56 for diesel. Today's refinery bottlenecks may suggest that even higher prices are ahead this summer as the driving season begins.
U.S. diesel shortages lift refining margins to a record: Kemp - (Reuters) -Global stocks of refined petroleum products have fallen to critically low levels as refineries prove unable to keep up with surging demand especially for the diesel-like fuels used in manufacturing and freight transportation.The result has been a surge in prices refiners receive for selling fuels compared with prices they pay for buying crude and other feedstocks, boosting their profitability significantly.In the United States, refiners currently receive roughly an average of more than $150 per barrel from the sale of gasoline and diesel at wholesale prices, while paying only around $100 to purchase crude. The indicative 3-2-1 margin of $50 per barrel is based on the assumption a refinery produces two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of diesel from refining three barrels of crude.The margin is meant to be representative for an “average” refinery and is a gross figure out of which refiners have to pay for labour, electricity, gas, hydrogen, catalysts, pipeline transport and the cost of capital.Net margins are narrower and refinery costs have been rising rapidly as result of widespread inflation ripping through the economy following the coronavirus pandemic.Nonetheless, even allowing for rising input costs, gross margins have more than doubled from $20 at the end of 2021, ensuring refiners have a strong financial incentive to maximise crude processing and fuel production.Gross margins are currently higher for making diesel (almost $60 per barrel) than for gasoline ($45 per barrel) reflecting the relative shortage of middle distillates (tmsnrt.rs/3PdSJdC).U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks are 31 million barrels (23%) below the pre-pandemic five-year average compared with a deficit of only 6 million barrels (3%) in gasoline.The squeeze on fuel inventories and refinery capacity is compounding already high prices for crude caused by sanctions on Russia and output restraint by OPEC+ and U.S. shale producers.The resumption of international passenger aviation as quarantine restrictions are lifted is tightening the fuel market even further because jet fuel is broadly similar to diesel and gas oil.The effective wholesale price of diesel has climbed to over $160 per barrel while gasoline is trading at over $150, based on futures for delivery in New York Harbor.Once distributors’ and retailers’ margins and taxes are included, the average price at the pump paid by motorists has climbed to $236 per barrel for diesel and $186 per barrel for gasoline.The refining margins and fuel prices cited in this column are all for the United States but the same shortage of refining capacity and fuel inventories is boosting diesel prices in Europe, and dragging up gasoline prices with them.There is scope for refiners to increase fuel production by postponing non-essential maintenance and running refineries flat out into the early autumn. But any increase in diesel production is unlikely to be able to reverse the depletion of inventories fully and return them to pre-pandemic levels. Prices will therefore have to continue rising until they begin to restrain consumption or the economy enters a cyclical downturn.
High Gasoline And Diesel Prices Are Here To Stay - U.S. gasoline and diesel prices are soaring to record highs nearly every day these days, as crude oil prices hold above $110 a barrel, the Russian invasion of Ukraine upends global crude and refined product trade flows, and refinery capacity globally is now lower than before the pandemic after some refineries—including in the United States—closed permanently after COVID crippled fuel demand in early 2020. There isn't a quick fix for all-time high fuel prices in America— or elsewhere — analysts say. The quickest fix is actually not one American consumers would want — a recession that would lead to job losses. Despite the Biden Administration's months-long efforts to lower gasoline prices — including massive releases of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and blaming oil companies for price gouging — U.S. refineries cannot catch up with demand. Not that demand has soared so much. It's the capacity for supply, globally and in the U.S, that is now a few million barrels per day lower than it was before the pandemic. Some 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of refinery capacity in America has been shut permanently since the start of the pandemic, as refiners have opted to either close losing facilities or convert some of them into biofuel production sites. Globally, refinery capacity is also stretched thin, especially after Western buyers — including in the U.S. — are no longer importing Russian vacuum gas oil (VGO) and other intermediate products necessary for refining crude into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The fuel market is extremely tight in Europe, too, considering that many refiners refuse to stock Russian crude and suppliers shun Russian diesel, even if the EU is still struggling to reach a common stance on an embargo on Russian oil imports. In the U.S., refinery operable capacity was at just over 18 million bpd in 2021, the lowest since 2015, per EIA data. "As you well know, 1 million barrels of distillation capacity has exited the system since pre-pandemic," Distillate refining margins are sky high due to a shortage of refined product, he added. "How long that persists? I don't see any signs of it ending soon or well," Jennings said. Rising demand since economies reopened and people returned to travel, combined with lower refining capacity and very tight distillate markets have drawn down U.S. product inventories to below seasonal averages and at multi-year lows, with record-low inventories reported on the East Coast. Distillate fuel inventories fell by 900,000 barrels in the week ending May 6 and are about 23% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said in its latest weekly inventory report. At 104 million barrels, distillate inventories — which include diesel — are at their lowest since 2008. On the East Coast, they are at their lowest ever, as the refinery capacity in the region has halved over the past decade to just 818,000 bpd now.Globally, around 3 million bpd of refining capacity has been shut down since early 2020, according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. "For companies with aging refineries that required significant investment to remain viable, it has been difficult to justify the spending in the face of a weak demand outlook, particularly for gasoline as a result of increased fuel efficiency and the rise of electric vehicles," Ed Crooks, Vice-Chair, Americas, at WoodMac wrote last week. At the same time, new refining capacity in the Middle East and Asia is only now entering the market after being delayed, in part because of the pandemic and weak refining margins, Crooks notes.
Texas Oil and Gas Production Drops Month on Month - Texas crude oil and natural gas production dropped from January to February, according to the latest preliminary figures from the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC). The preliminary reported total volume of crude oil in Texas in February was 99.07 million barrels, equating to 3.53 million barrels per day, the RRC highlighted. The preliminary reported total volume of natural gas in February was 718.31 billion cubic feet, equating to 25.65 billion cubic feet per day, the RRC revealed. Back in April, the RRC outlined that the preliminary reported total volume of crude oil in Texas in January was 118.05 million barrels, equating to 3.80 million barrels per day. The preliminary reported total volume of natural gas was said to be 871.06 billion cubic feet, equating to 28.09 billion cubic feet per day. Crude oil and natural gas production as reported to the RRC for February 2022 came from 162,109 oil wells and 84,801 gas wells, the organization highlighted. Crude oil and natural gas production as reported to the RRC for January 2022 came from 162,579 oil wells and 85,812 gas wells, according to the organization. The RRC reported that from March 2021 to February 2022, total Texas reported production was 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil and 10.6 trillion cubic feet of total gas. Texas’ top five crude oil producing counties ranked by preliminary production for February 2022, as reported by the RRC, can be seen below: Earlier this month, the RRC revealed that it had issued a total of 946 original drilling permits in April 2022. This compared to a total of 1,176 original drilling permits in March 2022 and a total of 732 in April 2021, according to the RRC.
Magnolia Reaping 'Early Stages' of Growth from Austin Chalk Development - Magnolia Oil and Gas Corp. may be at the beginning of a year-long surge in production growth after a strong showing in the first three months of the year in the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formation. The Houston-based independent previously launched development programs for parts of its South Texas assets, including the Giddings field and in Karnes County. Management in reporting the 1Q2022 results show those efforts are at the tipping point of a significant pay-off. CEO Steve Chazen said much of the first quarter’s success was from the Giddings, which has quickly grown from about one-third of total production to nearly 60%. More progress is expected, he said, as the company continues to develop the field. “With Giddings still in relatively early stages of development, our operating team’s improved understanding and growing experience will allow us to increase the oil and gas recovery ability…,” Chazen said. Magnolia reported 1Q2022 production at 6.5 million boe, up 15% from 5.6 million boe in the year-ago period. It was also a 3% sequential increase over the prior quarter. Average daily production for 1Q2022 was 71,835 boe/d, compared with 62,262 boe/d in 1Q2021. Natural gas production in 1Q2022 was 12,378 MMcf, versus 10,240 MMcf in 1Q2021. Average daily gas production was nearly 138 MMcf/d from 114 MMcf/d in the previous year’s first quarter. Oil production averaged 2.8 million bbl in the quarter, up from 2.6 million bbl in the year-prior period. Average daily oil production was 31,289 b/d from 28,808 b/d. Production was at the high end of guidance, attributed chiefly to the growth of its Giddings asset. The wells there produced 31% more oil during 1Q2022 than in the year-ago period.5:50 PM
BKV to buy ExxonMobil Barnett shale assets for $750 million -Subsidiaries of BKV Corp., Denver, will pay $750 million to acquire ExxonMobil’s operated and non-operated North Central Texas Barnett shale gas assets, ExxonMobil said in a release May 19. Additional payments are contingent on future natural gas prices, the oil and gas major said.BKV currently holds about 292,600 net acres in Denton, Parker, Tarrant, and Wise counties in Texas with current production of 550 MMcfd (gross), according to the company website. The private company was formed in 2015 by Thailand-based Banpu Public Co. Ltd. BKV acquired a large Barnett shale position through a $770-million deal with Devon Energy Corp., Oklahoma City, in 2019 (OGJ Online, Dec. 18, 2019).ExxonMobil removed the assets—operated by subsidiaries XTO Energy Inc. and Barnett Gathering LLC—from its development plan in 2020 as part of a larger strategy to prioritize investments on “advantaged assets with lowest cost of supply,” it said.XTO Energy had built a large position in major US shale, tight gas, and coalbed methane plays, amassing a 277,000-acre position in the Barnett specifically, before its 2009 acquisition by ExxonMobil in an all-stock deal valued at $41 billion (OGJ Online, Dec. 14, 2009; Jan. 1, 2010). At closing, BKV will acquire some 160,000 total net acres primarily in Tarrant, Johnson, and Parker counties, with additional smaller positions in Jack, Wise, Denton, Erath, Hood, and Ellis counties, BKV said in a separate release May 20. Average working interest is 93% in over 2,100 wells with operatorship positions, the company continued. Through the deal, BKV also will acquire some 750 miles of gathering pipelines, compression, and processing infrastructure. As part of the deal, all employees of ExxonMobil subsidiaries in the Barnett shale will receive full employment offers with BKV, according to ExxonMobil. The sale is expected to close in this year’s second quarter.
U.S. Shale Merger Creates A New $7 Billion Giant - Centennial Resource Development and Colgate Energy Partners III, LLC have agreed to combine in a $7.0-billion merger of equals, creating the largest pure-play exploration and production (E&P) firm in the Delaware Basin in the Permian, the companies said on Thursday.The combined firm will be the largest pure-play E&P company in the Delaware Basin, with around 180,000 net leasehold acres, 40,000 net royalty acres, and total current production of approximately 135,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d). The $7.0 billion merger of equals values Colgate at approximately $3.9 billion and is comprised of 269.3 million shares of Centennial stock, $525 million of cash, and the assumption of approximately $1.4 billion of Colgate’s outstanding net debt.The boards of directors of both companies have unanimously approved the deal, which is expected to close in the second half of this year.The new firm aims to significantly increase cash returns to shareholders, with over $1 billion of expected free cash flow in 2023 at current strip prices, Centennial and Colgate said.“We are excited to partner with Colgate as we share a common vision for the pro forma company that includes a strong balance sheet, a disciplined investment program to drive cash flow and a robust return-of-capital program,” said Sean Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Centennial.The deal follows a strong start to 2022 upstream mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. oil and gas industry, although activity slowed down after early March when oil prices spiked following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A total of $14 billion in deals were announced during the first quarter of 2022, energy data analytics company Enverus said last month. The $6 billion in transactions in January 2022 was the strongest M&A market launch in five years. However, the last significant transaction in the first quarter occurred in early March before a spike in commodity prices temporarily halted activity, Enverus noted.
Indigenous citizens from U.S., Canada, Siberia converge for Line 5 ‘eviction’ anniversary ⋆ Michigan Advance - Canadian pipeline company Enbridge has been considered an international trespasser in the Straits by the state of Michigan since May 13, 2021. Rather than complying with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s order months before to cease operation by that date, Enbridge refused and filed a federal lawsuit to solidify their claim that only a federal agency can force a Line 5 shutdown. That lawsuit remains pending as a federal judge deliberates. Indigenous citizens from tribes in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine, Canada and even Siberia, Russia, joined together Friday in Mackinaw City on the anniversary of the attempted Line 5 “eviction.” The numerous speakers uplifted treaty rights, shared Native wisdom and spoke out against extractive industries that disproportionately build into Indigenous lands. Chelsea Fairbank of Maine, whose doctoral work focuses on extractive fossil fuel sites on land that impacts Indigenous people in particular, said all residents of Turtle Island (North America) and beyond must break their “colonial relationship to land.” Indigenous activists and their supporters are “pushing back against the monsters of our world,” Fairbank said, pointing to oil infrastructure like Line 5 in Michigan and Line 3 in Minnesota. Both are owned by Enbridge and snake through treaty territories. She and others spoke to the importance of protecting treaty lands and waters from the dangers that fossil fuel projects can bring, like potential damage to manoomin (wild rice) in the Great Lakes region. “Where there’s manoomin, there’s great, pristine life,” said Dan Hinmon, who has spent the last 10 years harvesting and restoring wild manoomin beds in Michigan. Hinmon is a Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians (LTBB) citizen and a treaty rights enhancement specialist for his tribe.Other speakers included a hydrogeologist, a chemical engineer, a hydrologist and more to underscore the potential environmental threats from oil pipelines. Sean McBrearty of Oil & Water Don’t Mix and Clean Water Action also shared the podium and broke down the legal fights over Line 5. Those speaking through the Indigenous lens included Pueblo/Yaqui/Apache attorney and activist Holly T. Bird, Skyler Williams from the Mohawk Nation of the Wolf Clan, Layla Staats of the Haudenosaunee, Amber George of the Wet’suwet’en Nation and several speakers, musicians and dancers from the Siberian region of Russia. The all-day event was punctuated by traditional dance, song and stories from various tribal backgrounds. Indigenous water protector group MackinawOde organized the two-day event which is slated to have an outdoors component in Mackinaw City on Saturday. Line 5 was built in 1953 and stretches from the far western border of the Upper Peninsula down into Canada near Detroit, running for approximately four miles under the environmentally sensitive Straits of Mackinac on its way into the Lower Peninsula. All 12 federally recognized tribes in Michigan publicly oppose the Line 5 pipeline and its proposed tunnel-enclosed replacement.
“Drill, Baby, Drill” 2022 Edition - by Menzie Chinn - Back in the more innocent days of 2010, we had Sarah Palin – “Drill, baby, drill” (more innocent because folk were just circulating doctored photos of President Obama, instead of threatening to kill elected officials). Now, we have a new chorus of people asserting that allowing more permitting would relieve gasoline price pressures. Well, from the Dallas Fed,, some text in plain English. Consumers and policymakers often ask what domestic oil producers can do to raise output and lower gasoline prices, especially since producers’ profitability has greatly improved in 2022. Because the price of crude oil is determined in global markets, increases in domestic oil production affect the retail price of gasoline only to the extent that they lower global oil prices.Many observers point out that oil companies currently hold nearly 9,000 permits to drill on federal lands. But holding 9,000 permits does not equate to 9,000 well locations that are worth drilling, nor would it be possible to churn through that much inventory in a reasonable time frame.Data provider Enersection found that since 2015, an average of 1,560 wells have been drilled on federal lands annually, but only 47 percent of federal permits issued were actually utilized. This is because companies tend to acquire permits on the acreage they lease even if they are not certain whether the location is worth developing.The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows that investor pressure to maintain capital discipline—which precludes higher investment in expanding oil production—is the primary restraint on publicly traded companies. This is not simply a case of investors being selfish, but of investors who suffered persistent losses in years past wanting compensation for the risk they take. Depriving these investors of the returns they insist on, by whatever means, would likely be counterproductive because without these investors, the industry would lack the capital to maintain—never mind, increase—crude production going forward.Additionally, producers and service companies are constrained by labor shortages, rising input costs and supply-chain bottlenecks for vital equipment such as well casing and coiled tubing. An industry that lacks experienced staff and materials cannot on short notice substantially increase drilling and production.Complicating matters, many shale producers are running low on top-quality drilling locations. Thus, it would be unreasonable to expect a noticeable increase in oil production before 2023 at the earliest, even if investors were to agree to higher production targets.Higher U.S. Oil Production Might Not Lower Retail Gasoline Prices Apart from the difficulties of expanding domestic oil production, what are the odds of higher U.S. oil production growth materially lowering the prices of crude oil and gasoline?Even under the most optimistic view, U.S. production increases would likely add only a few hundred thousand barrels per day above current forecasts. This amounts to a proverbial drop in the bucket in the 100-million-barrel-per-day global oil market, especially relative to a looming reduction in Russian oil exports due to war-related sanctions that could easily reach 3 million barrels per day.Placing the responsibility to lower retail gasoline prices on shale oil producers is thus unlikely to work, and additional regulation of oil producers is unlikely to lower pump prices.
US fracking boom could tip world to edge of climate disaster - The fate of the vast quantities of oil and gas lodged under the shale, mud and sandstone of American drilling fields will in large part determine whether the world retains a liveable climate. And the US,the world’s largest extractor of oil, is poised to unleash these fossil fuels in spectacular volumes. Planned drilling projects across US land and waters will release 140bn metric tons of planet-heating gases if fully realised, an analysis shared with the Guardian has found. The study, to be published in the Energy Policy journal this month, found emissions from these oil and gas “carbon bomb” projects were four times larger than all of the planet-heating gases expelled globally each year, placing the world on track for disastrous climate change. The plans include conventional drilling and fracking spanning the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico to the foothills of the Front Range in Colorado and the mountainous Appalachian region. But the heart is the Permian basin, a geological formation 250 miles wide that sits under the mostly flat terrain of west Texas and New Mexico.One lobe of this formation, known as the Delaware basin, is predicted to emit 27.8bn metric tons of carbon during the lifetime of planned drilling, while another, known as the Midland basin, will potentially unleash 16.6bn tons of emissions.It means the US, the centre of the world’s addiction to oil and gas, will play an outsized role in the heatwaves, droughts and floods that will impact people around the planet.Extracting oil and gas through unconventional methods such as fracking has expanded rapidly across the US over the past two decades, with at least 17.6 million people living within about half a mile (1km) of an active well. Further expansion will be catastrophic for climate change, and poses a growing threat to the health and wellbeing of families and communities living near drilling sites.
Revealed: the ‘carbon bombs’ set to trigger catastrophic climate breakdown - The world’s biggest fossil fuel firms are quietly planning scores of “carbon bomb” oil and gas projects that would drive the climate past internationally agreed temperature limits with catastrophic global impacts, a Guardian investigation shows.The exclusive data shows these firms are in effect placing multibillion-dollar bets against humanity halting global heating. Their huge investments in new fossil fuel production could pay off only if countries fail to rapidly slash carbon emissions, which scientists say is vital.The oil and gas industry is extremely volatile but extraordinarily profitable, particularly when prices are high, as they are at present. ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and Chevron have made almost $2tn in profits in the past three decades, while recent price rises led BP’s boss to describe the company as a “cash machine”.The lure of colossal payouts in the years to come appears to be irresistible to the oil companies, despite the world’s climate scientists stating in February that further delay in cutting fossil fuel use would mean missing our last chance “to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all”. As the UN secretary general, António Guterres, warned world leaders in April: “Our addiction to fossil fuels is killing us.” Details of the projects being planned are not easily accessible but an investigation published in the Guardian shows:
The fossil fuel industry’s short-term expansion plans involve the start of oil and gas projects that will produce greenhouse gases equivalent to a decade of CO2 emissions from China, the world’s biggest polluter.
These plans include 195 carbon bombs, gigantic oil and gas projects that would each result in at least a billion tonnes of CO2 emissions over their lifetimes, in total equivalent to about 18 years of current global CO2emissions. About 60% of these have already started pumping.
The dozen biggest oil companies are on track to spend $103m a day for the rest of the decade exploiting new fields of oil and gas that cannot be burned if global heating is to be limited to well under 2C.
The Middle East and Russia often attract the most attention in relation to future oil and gas production but the US, Canada and Australia are among the countries with the biggest expansion plans and the highest number of carbon bombs. The US, Canada and Australia also give some of the world’s biggest subsidies for fossil fuels per capita.
The dozen biggest oil companies are on track to spend every day for the rest of the decade $103m
At the UN’s Cop26 climate summit in November, after a quarter-century of annual negotiations that as yet have failed to deliver a fall in global emissions, countries around the world finally included the word “coal” in their concluding decision. Even this belated mention of the dirtiest fossil fuel was fraught, leaving a “deeply sorry” Cop president, Alok Sharma, fighting back tears on the podium after India announced a last-minute softening of the need to “phase out coal” to “phase down coal”.Nonetheless, the world agreed coal power was history – the question now was how quickly cheaper renewables could replace it, and how fair the transition would be for the small number of developing countries that still relied on it.But there was no mention of oil and gas in the Cop26 final deal, despite these being responsible for almost 60% of fossil fuel emissions.
Q&A: The Activist Investor Who Shook Up the Board at ExxonMobil, on How—or if—it Changed the Company - A year ago this month, a small hedge fund won an unlikely victory against ExxonMobil, gaining support from a majority of the company’s shareholders to replace three of its directors, against management’s wishes. The fund, called Engine No. 1, had argued that Exxon was failing to plan for a transition away from fossil fuels, and as a result was jeopardizing its long-term business prospects.While Engine No. 1 held only a tiny number of shares, it waged a six-month campaign and convinced large investors like BlackRock and State Street that Exxon needed fresh faces on its board of directors. Even before the vote, Exxon responded to the pressure by announcing a new low-carbon business line and more ambitious plans to reduce its own direct greenhouse gas emissions.This month, Inside Climate News talked with Charlie Penner, who was head of active engagement for Engine No. 1, to take stock of what, if anything, has changed. Penner has since left the fund, and he declined to comment on what comes next.This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
$230M settlement reached over 2015 California oil spill --The owner of an oil pipeline that spewed thousands of barrels of crude oil ontoSouthern California beaches in 2015 has agreed to pay $230 million to settle a class-action lawsuit brought by fishermen and property owners, court documents show.Houston-based Plains All American Pipeline agreed to pay $184 million to fishermen and fish processors and $46 million to coastal property owners in the settlement reached Friday, according to court documents.The company didn’t admit liability in the agreement, which follows seven years of legal wrangling. The agreement still must undergo a public comment period and needs federal court approval. A hearing on the matter is scheduled for June 10."This settlement should serve as a reminder that pollution just can’t be a cost of doing business, and that corporations will be held accountable for environmental damage they cause," said Matthew Preusch, one of the attorneys who represented the plaintiffs.Plains All American Pipeline officials didn’t immediately return a message Saturday from The Associated Press seeking comment.On May 19, 2015, oil gushed from a corroded pipeline north of Refugio State Beach in Santa Barbara County, northwest of Los Angeles, spreading along the coasts of Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties.It was the worst California coastal oil spill since 1969 and it blackened popular beaches for miles, killing or fouling hundred of seabirds, seals and other wildlife and hurting tourism and fishing.A federal investigation said 123,000 gallons spilled, but other estimates by experts in liquids mechanics were as high as 630,000 gallons.
Canada can boost oil output by 900,000 barrels a day, Kenney says — Canada’s oil production could increase by 900,000 barrels a day to make up for supply losses from Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to the premier of the province of Alberta. Premier Jason Kenney gave the estimate in testimony before a U.S. Senate committee on Tuesday. It’s about triple the estimate delivered weeks ago by Canadian Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson. About 300,000 barrels a day of unused capacity exists in the North American pipeline system, which should be filled this year through higher output, Kenney said. Another 200,000 barrels of crude oil could be shipped by rail and “if midstream companies get serious about it, and if regulators approve it,” a further 400,000 barrels could be added through pipeline reversals and technical improvements. Boosting Canada’s oil output by that amount would not happen quickly. Canada exported about 3.9 million barrels a day of crude oil to the U.S. in the first two months of the year, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration -- the bulk of the country’s production. By 2024, the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project to British Columbia will give Canada even more capacity to ship oil to the US, Kenney said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “My point is, let’s be visionary about this. Let’s have a North American energy alliance, and let’s get another major pipeline done because we’ve got the third-largest reserves on Earth up in Alberta,” he said. Energy producers can raise shipments of crude by 200,000 barrels a day and natural gas by the equivalent of 100,000 barrels by year-end by accelerating planned projects to expand output to help compensate for the loss of Russian supply, Wilkinson said at a March 24 press conference in Paris.
Pemex’s $12.5 Billion Dos Bocas Refinery Sees Higher Costs -- Petroleos Mexicanos’ beleaguered mega-refinery project in Dos Bocas could run at least $4.7 billion over budget with just months to go before its grand opening. Pemex, as the state-owned oil company is known, has budgeted $12.5 billion for the project through the end of 2022, and is expected to spend some $2 billion more on the project, according to company filings and a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public. Pemex is expected to hold a board meeting on Dos Bocas soon.
U.S. to ease sanctions on Venezuela, enabling cargoes to Europe — The Biden administration plans to ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil in a bid to bring more of the country’s crude to Europe. The U.S. will allow European companies still operating in Venezuela to divert more oil to the continent immediately while Chevron will be allowed to negotiate a resumption of operations in the country, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to detail the plans. The U.S.-backed Venezuelan opposition supports the move, the person said. The easing of penalties come as tightening global oil supplies send the cost of crude and fuels skyward, threatening to worsen already historic inflation. More barrels from Venezuela would help alleviate the supply crunch while also aiding Europe in weaning itself from Russian energy amid the superpower’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. benchmark crude fell on the news. The move is meant to facilitate negotiations between the government of President Nicolas Maduro and the American-backed opposition, according to a second person who spoke on condition of anonymity. But it’s politically contentious, with some lawmakers arguing that the move only bolsters Maduro’s regime. Italy’s Eni SpA and Spain’s Repsol SA are the only major European oil producers with operations in the country. They are working with the Biden administration to divert Venezuelan oil bound for China to Europe, one of the people said. While Chevron currently isn’t allowed to drill for or export oil from Venezuela, the resumption of talks with state-owned PDVSA paves the way for the San Ramon, California-based company to obtain a new license allowing it to resume operations. It also signals that Venezuelan oil may be coming to the U.S., one person said.
Venezuela investors meet in Davos as U.S. weighs sanctions — Venezuela creditors are holding a rare meeting in Davos next week to discuss potential opportunities in the oil sector amid increasing optimism for investment in the country as the U.S. floats easing some sanctions. London-based brokerage IlliquidX Ltd. and Canaima Capital Management, a fund focused on distressed debt, are hosting the May 23 meeting with more than two dozen creditors in Davos on the sidelines the World Economic Forum to explain the implications of a potential opening in Venezuela’s oil sector. “It’s the first time a discussion like this is happening in Davos,” said Celestino Amore, chief executive officer of IlliquidX and co-founder of Canaima. “Investors want to know about eventual opportunities in the Venezuelan oil and gas sectors if sanctions are removed and what would be the impact on creditors.” Speakers at the event include former Shell Plc. executive Jeroen Van Der Veer, Venezuelan Oil Chamber President Reinaldo Quintero, sovereign debt restructuring expert Rodrigo Olivares-Caminal, Keith Mines, who handled Venezuelan affairs at the US State Department, economist and Council of Foreign Relations fellow Francisco Rodriguez, and director of consulting firm Araya Energy Group Juan Carlos Andrade. Venezuela remains deeply sanctioned and any restructuring of its more than $60 billion of defaulted debt is still nowhere in sight. But the global energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has opened a discussion on how Venezuela could help address oil supply disruptions. The US is currently planning sanctions relief targeting restrictions on oil companies working in Venezuela. Defaulted state-oil company bonds rose this week as investors priced in optimism over those potential changes. PDVSA notes maturing in 2024 jumped as much as 18% between Monday and Thursday to around 7 cents on the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The market continues to be cautious, however, and the prices remain below levels seen in March following a visit by US officials to Caracas. On Friday, some bonds pared gains, with the 2024s falling to around 5 cents. US investors remained barred from buying the securities.
Peru sued Repsol for 4,500 million dollars for an oil spill -The measure was promoted by the National Institute for the Defense of Competition and the Protection of Intellectual Property (Indecopi) of Peru due to the pollution generated after the oil spill that occurred last January 15 in a refinery operated by the Spanish oil company and that affected twenty beaches on the Peruvian coast. “We have filed this lawsuit in accordance with the rules of the Civil Code, which establishes that whoever operates a dangerous asset or by carrying out a dangerous activity, and causes damage to others, is obliged to compensate him,” stated the director of Indecopi, Julián Palacín, in a video released by the institution. The oil spill, calculated in about 11,000 barrelsaffected 700,000 inhabitants and caused the closure of dozens of beaches, shops, restaurants and tourist services in the summer season, in addition to affecting fishing activity. The fine is 3,000 million dollars for the damages caused, plus 1,500 million for moral damages to consumers, users and those affected, a figure that has to be defined by the judge at the time of resolving. “The prejudice and moral damages suffered by the population of that area are protected by the rulings of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights,” Palacín said. He concluded by announcing that this is the first case in Peru where an international oil company is being sued for civil liability in defense of the interests of the population, and stated that this could be “a unique jurisprudential precedent” in the country. The civil claim for compensation for damages was filed before the 27th Civil Court of the Superior Court of Justice of Lima against six defendants: Repsol SA (Spain), Mapfre Global Risks (Spain), Mapfre Peru Insurance and Reinsurance Companies ( Peru), La Pampilla Refinery (Peru), Transtotal Maritime Agency (Peru) and Fratelli dŽamico Armatori (Italy). The fact The Repsol crude oil spill occurred on January 15 of this year at the La Pampilla Refinery, some 20 kilometers from Lima, and was defined by the UN “as the worst ecological disaster in the country’s history.” As reported by the company at the time, the accident occurred during the unloading process of the Italian-flagged “Mare Dorium” tanker, presumably due to the violence of the waves due to the volcanic eruption in tonga.
Peru Sues Spanish Oil Giant Repsol for Billions After “Worst Ever” Oil Spill --The Peruvian government has sued Spanish oil major Repsol and five other companies for the oil spill that occurred off the coast of Lima four months ago. The lawsuit, seeking $4.5 billion in damages, was filed before the 27th civil court in Lima against Repsol (Spain), Mapfre Global Risks (Spain), Mapfre Peru Insurance and Reinsurance Companies (Peru), La Pampilla Refinery (Peru), Transtotal Maritime Agency (Peru) and Fratelli d’amico Armatori (Italy, owner of the tanker involved), Peru’s consumer protection agency said.“We have filed this lawsuit in accordance with the rules of the Civil Code, which establishes that anyone who causes damage to others while operating a dangerous asset or conducting dangerous activity, is obliged to pay compensation,” said the agency’s director, Julián Palacín, in a recorded statement.The Repsol crude oil spill occurred on January 15 at the La Pampilla Refinery, some 20 kilometers south of Lima, and was described by the UN “as the worst ecological disaster in [Peru’s] history.” According to Repsol, the accident occurred during the unloading of the Italian tanker “Mare Dorium”, allegedly due to unusually rough seas caused by the eruption of a volcano near Tonga. Shortly after the spill at La Pampilla Peru’s then-prime minister (and now president of the Council of Ministers), Mirtha Vásquez, told journalists that Repsol “apparently” did not even have a contingency plan in place for an oil spill. The company’s initial response was certainly to play down the scale and scope of the disaster, describing the spill as “limited”. It even claimed that no more than seven gallons of oil had escaped into the sea.That tactic became less and less tenable as environmental groups began appraising the true scale of the damage inflicted. According to government estimates, as many as 12,000 barrels of oil spilled into the sea, causing the death of huge numbers of fish, marine mammals and birds across 140 kilometers of coastline. The spill led to the closure of dozens of beaches, shops, restaurants and tourist services in the summer season, in addition to affecting fishing activity.The effects on the environment, local communities and the economy have been brutal, Christel Scheske told The Guardian:“The environmental and social impacts of the Repsol oil spill in the short and long term are devastating, and the company’s response has been weak. The oil spill has affected a highly biodiverse part of the Peruvian coast, including two protected areas which are important not only for Peru’s astounding marine biodiversity, but also for over 1,000 artisanal fishers in the region that depend on them.Heavy metals from the crude oil will remain in the ecosystem for many years, rendering fish, molluscs and other marine species dangerous for human consumption, and affecting the entire marine food web.”Repsol’s strategy, which it has doggedly stuck to since, was to deny any responsibility for the disaster. An internal inquiry conducted by Repsol conveniently absolved the oil major of almost all responsibility, laying most of the blame for the spill on Giacomo Pisani, the captain of the Mare Doricum, reported Spanish daily El Mundo on Monday. But Pisani has already fled the scene, as Peru’s most widely read financial newspaper Gestion reports:
Peru requests extradition of Italian captain over oil spill - Peruvian prosecutors said Tuesday that they had requested the extradition of the Italian captain of a vessel as part of their investigation into the spill of thousands of barrels of oil off the coast of Peru. The prosecutors’ office in Peru said in a statement that the captain of the Mare Doricum, Giacomo Pisani, left the country on March 9. His departure came one day after a hearing in which he was prohibited from leaving Peruvian territory, according to authorities. Peru said 11,900 barrels were spilled on Jan. 15 in front of a Repsol refinery and that the spill was its “worst ecological disaster.” The spill in the Pacific occurred during an unloading of oil from the Italian ship, owned by the company Fratelli d’Amico Armatori S.p.A., that was destined for the refinery. Repsol, a Spanish company, has said huge waves created by a volcanic eruption in Tonga caused the spill and that the fault lies with the Mare Doricum oil tanker. The tanker’s owners dispute the allegation. Pisani and the local director of Repsol, Jaime Fernández-Cuesta, are among several people being investigated for the alleged crime of environmental pollution.
Peru demands Repsol compensates oil spill victims - Peruvian President Pedro Castillo on Monday asked Repsol to compensate those affected by a January oil spill in the Pacific, after his government sued the energy company for $4.5 million. Following the spill, the government in March said that Repsol had agreed to pay $805 to each of those affected, as part of a round of compensation. The company has insisted that about $7.8 million has been paid so far to 5,500 people. However, the government announced it was suing Repsol on Friday. The company then responded by saying that the lawsuit was unfounded because the estimates "lacked the slightest basis to support the figures indicated." The government had indicated in its civil lawsuit for damages that it represented the interests of about 700,000 parties. Speaking about the clean up operation, Castillo said that the Ministry of the Environment had "precise instructions to supervise the cleaning of the ecosystem" which impacted about 106 square kilometres, killed marine animals and polluted the sea along the country's coast. The spill occurred on January 15 and lasted at least eight minutes during the unloading of oil from the Italian-flagged ship Mare Doricum to a Repsol refinery. Peru has claimed that the spill of 11,900 barrels of crude oil into one of the most biodiverse seas in the world is the "worst ecological disaster" in its history.
UK Diesel Prices Reach Record High - Diesel prices in the UK have reached a record high of 180.29 pence ($2.21) per liter, the RAC highlighted on Monday. The price move comes less than two months after UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a five pence ($0.06) per liter cut on the average price of fuel, the RAC pointed out. The previous diesel price high was recorded on March 23, 2022, at 179.90 pence ($2.207), the RAC outlined. The RAC, which highlighted that the UK government has tried to move away from its reliance on importing Russian oil in recent weeks, also warned that the price per liter for petrol cars is “fast approaching” record levels of 167.3 pence ($2.05) per liter, which were set on March 22. “Sadly, despite the Chancellor’s five pence a liter duty cut the average price of a liter of diesel has hit a new record high at 180.29 pence,” RAC fuel spokesperson Simon Williams said in a company statement. “Efforts to move away from importing Russian diesel have led to a tightening of supply and pushed up the price retailers pay for diesel. While the wholesale price has eased in the last few days this is likely to be temporary, especially if the EU agrees to ban imports of Russian oil,” Williams added in the statement. “Unfortunately, drivers with diesel vehicles need to brace themselves for yet more pain at the pumps,” Williams continued. The RAC’s fuel price watch tool is currently warning drivers that prices for unleaded, super unleaded and diesel are likely to rise.
Hungary says ditching Russian oil to cost at least $810 million — Hungary told its European Union counterparts that it will cost at least 770 million euros ($810 million) to revamp its oil industry as they wrangle over potential sanctions that would target Russian supplies. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government said 550 million euros were needed to overhaul its refineries to comply with the ban, and another 220 million euros for a pipeline from Croatia, according to people familiar with discussions that have taken place this week between EU ministers and documents seen by Bloomberg. Additional funds may be needed to adapt to a potential price spike resulting from a ban on Russian imports. Landlocked Hungary is also insisting that any restrictions should focus on sea-borne oil -- and exempt pipelines -- for Budapest to back the ban, according to people. The EU has given no indication of wanting to make that distinction in the sanctions package, which must be approved by all 27 EU states to go forward. As part of a broader strategy to wean Europe off Russian crude over the next six months and refined fuels by early January, the EU is expected to propose some investments this week to help countries that are most dependent on Russian supplies. It has also offered Hungary and Slovakia until the end of 2024 to comply, and the Czech Republic until June of the same year. One of the people said they hoped the package will convince Hungary to drop its veto threat and end a week of deadlock over the proposal. Orban has suggested the issue should be discussed by EU leaders, with the next European Council summit scheduled for end-May. The proposed sum is a fraction of the 15 billion to 18 billion euros that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said would be required to fix Hungary’s energy infrastructure in a tweet on Monday.
Progressives warn Europe against rush to LNG reliance - Democratic lawmakers raised alarms yesterday about the climate consequences of the rush to replace Russian energy in Europe with liquefied natural gas.The warning from both Senate and House Democrats comes as the European Union released a sweeping plan earlier this week to end imports of fossil fuels from Russia and rapidly scale up its use of renewable power. That plan acknowledges a need to import gas from other sources.In a letter sent to the White House and E.U. leadership, Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) led 20 other colleagues in urging prudence in the build-out of natural gas import infrastructure in Europe.Such an effort could mean higher emissions profiles, the lawmakers warned, in contradiction to the goals of the Paris Agreement.“It is critically important that our countries not lock ourselves into decades of further reliance on fossil fuels when climate science, environmental justice, and public health concerns necessitate a rapid transition towards full renewable energy,” the lawmakers wrote.U.S. liquefied natural gas has emerged as a key leverage point in the rush to transition European countries off Russian oil and natural gas. Those products have been accused of financing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Earlier this week, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said in an appearance to a joint session of Congress that LNG imports from the United States are among his country’s top priorities as it looks to build out an import energy hub for its surrounding region (E&E News PM, May 17). The comment earned a standing ovation from lawmakers in the chamber.Still, the progressive lawmakers argued in their letter that any fossil fuel infrastructure build-out would take at least three years to complete — far short of immediate energy demands. That money, they said, should go to renewable energy and efficiency improvements.“Building new fossil fuel infrastructure diverts resources from the investments we need to address the climate crisis and ensure the energy security from energy efficiency and renewable sources,” the lawmakers wrote.
Russia says half of Gazprom clients abroad opened ruble accounts — Around half of Gazprom PJSC’s foreign clients have complied with a request from Russia’s president to open accounts with Gazprombank JSC, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. The shift in procedure follows a demand by Vladimir Putin in March that foreign buyers open ruble and foreign-currency accounts at the bank to handle payments for natural gas. But European companies have feared that doing so might violate sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. “I think we have about 54 companies that have contracts with Gazprom Export,” Novak said Thursday at an event in Moscow. “According to the data I have, about half of them have already opened special accounts in our authorized bank -- foreign currency and ruble accounts.” Novak, who is also Russia’s top energy official, did not name the companies or countries complying with the new payment mechanism, saying only that some of Gazprom’s major clients have either paid for deliveries or are ready to pay on time, avoiding a supply cutoff. The market remains wary as payment deadlines fast approach. Moscow has already halted supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for non-compliance, and Finland has said there’s a “real risk” that flows will end this week as it’s refusing to pay in rubles. The European Union, which last year imported about 40% of its gas from Russia, has found itself divided over Putin’s order. The bloc has told member states that the proposed payment mechanism violates sanctions, yet there’s been nothing in writing from the European Commission that explicitly stops companies from paying Gazprom under the new rules.
Russia will shut off gas to Finland from Saturday, Finnish energy provider says -Russia may have just made its first retaliatory move against Finland after lawmakers in Helsinki officially applied to join the NATO military alliance. Gasum, Finland's state-owned gas wholesaler, said in a statement Friday morning that imports from Russia will be halted on Saturday. "On the afternoon of Friday May 20, Gazprom Export informed Gasum that natural gas supplies to Finland under Gasum's supply contract will be cut on Saturday May 21, 2022 at 07.00," it said in a statement. Gasum's CEO, Mika Wiljanen, added that the company had been preparing for such a situation "and provided that there will be no disruptions in the gas transmission network, we will be able to supply all our customers with gas in the coming months." "Gasum will supply natural gas to its customers from other sources through the Balticconnector pipeline. Gasum's gas filling stations in the gas network area will continue in normal operation," he said. A spokesperson for Gazprom was not immediately available when contacted by CNBC. It comes after Russia's state-run gas giant Gazprom in April told Poland and Bulgaria that it would halt flows after both countries refused Moscow's demand to pay for gas supplies in rubles. Gasum gave no reason for the move, but Finland has also reportedly refused to pay for Russian gas in rubles. It also comes just two days after Finland formally applied to join NATO. Russia had warned of retaliation if the traditionally neutral nation became a member of the Western military alliance. After Finland's application, alongside fellow Nordic nation Sweden, Moscow wasted no time in making its feelings known, with Russian President Vladimir Putin saying Monday that the expansion of NATO "is a problem." Putin said Russia would respond to an expansion of military infrastructure in Sweden and Finland, but also insisted Moscow had "no problems" with the countries.
UAE to more than double LNG export capacity with Fujairah plant — Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. plans to build a new liquefied natural gas plant as the world’s producers race to expand their exports amid surging demand. The LNG facility, to be built at Fujairah on the United Arab Emirates’ coast outside the Persian Gulf, will be able to produce as much as 9.6 million tons a year. The UAE currently has three liquefaction trains with a combined capacity of 5.8 mtpa at Das Island, which is located inside the Gulf. Adnoc has appointed McDermott International Ltd as design contractor and intends to award a contract for the construction of the plant in 2023, said the oil company in a statement on its Linkedin page. The plant will use new technologies and “clean power” to reduce the carbon intensity of the LNG it produces, according to the statement. Appetite for LNG among energy consumers has grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, particularly in Europe, reinforcing a global market for the fuel that was already strengthened by rising demand in Asia last winter. While prices have eased slightly over the past month “higher prices and more volatility” are expected because of Europe’s switch to LNG, Biraj Borkhataria, associate director of European research at RBC Europe Limited, said in a note. A pipeline will be constructed linking Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas production facilities to Fujairah and the liquefaction plant is scheduled to start in 2027, according to two people familiar with the matter. A spokesperson for the company declined to comment on the matter. A government official previously said the UAE was considering building an LNG plant at Fujairah to facilitate the extra exports and state producer Adnoc last month agreed to buy two LNG carriers from a Chinese shipyard. The UAE was the world’s 12th-largest LNG producer last year, making it a relatively small global player. However, a $20 billion push to develop more of its natural gas resources means it will be able to produce much more from about 2025 and the country aims to become self-sufficient by 2030.
Iran’s natural gas output to increase by 45 mcm in year to March -The National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) will add around 45 million cubic meters (mcm) per day to the country’s natural gas output in the year to March 2023, says the CEO of the state-run company as he indicates that Iran’s gas supply to Iraq and Turkey may increase in the future. . Majid Chegeni said on Sunday that the NIGC will secure the increased gas output from Phase 11 and Phase 14 of South Pars, the world’s largest gas field that straddles Iran-Qatar maritime border in the Persian Gulf. Speaking on the sidelines of a major petroleum event in Tehran, Chegeni said that Iran’s total annual gas output is expected to reach a record of 278 billion cubic meters (bcm) this calendar year, up from 269 bcm reported in the year to March this year. He said that Iranian natural gas exports to neighboring Iraq and Turkey increased by 2% over the past calendar year to reach a total of 17 bcm. The official said gas exports to Iraq had increased to 35 mcm per day following recent talks between the two countries on how Iraq will settle previous debts. The NIGC chief said that Iran had met its contractual obligations regarding gas exports to Turkey over the last calendar year, adding that total exports to the country reached over 9 bcm over the period, up from a minimum of 8.5 bcm stipulated in the export contract. Chegeni said that both Turkey and Iraq have been negotiating with the NIGC to renew supply contracts that are set to expire in the near future. He added the two neighbors have asked for higher volumes of natural gas imports from Iran in future contracts.
Iran considering gas exports to Europe: official - Iran is considering the possibility of exporting gas to Europe, an oil ministry official said Sunday against the backdrop of soaring energy prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. “Iran is studying this subject but we have not reached a conclusion yet,” deputy oil minister Majid Chegeni was quoted as saying by the ministry’s official news agency, Shana. “Iran is always after the development of energy diplomacy and expansion of the market,” he added. Though Iran boasts one of the world’s largest proven gas reserves, its industry has been hit by US sanctions that were reimposed in 2018 when Washington withdrew from a landmark nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers. Talks aiming to revive the 2015 nuclear deal began last year in Vienna but have been on pause for weeks amid outstanding issues. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February sent global oil and gas prices soaring, with many European countries dependent on energy imports from Russia. The situation worsened Wednesday when Kyiv said Russia had halted gas supplies through a key transit hub in the east of the Ukraine, fueling fears Moscow’s invasion could worsen an energy crisis in Europe. Last year, the European Union received around 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, accounting for 45 percent of its imports. Iran’s deputy oil minister also confirmed that Tehran and Baghdad had signed a memorandum of understanding a few weeks ago that will see the Islamic republic increase gas exports to Iraq. “Gas exports from Iran increased and in this memorandum it was stated that Iraq’s debt of $1.6 billion to Iran will be paid by the end of May,”
$650B Worth of Oil Reserves Being Auctioned in Congo -Oil blocks that the Democratic Republic of Congo plans to auction have reserves estimated at 16 billion barrels that would be worth more than $650 billion at current prices, according to the country’s oil minister. Preliminary data compiled by Texas-based GeoSigmoid still need to be confirmed by further exploration and “the discovery of economically profitable hydrocarbon deposits,” Minister Didier Budimbu said Saturday in a speech announcing the results. The estimates are based on an oil recovery rate of 35% and an average price of $107 a barrel. The 16 blocks will go on tender on July 28 and 29 in Kinshasa, the capital. The four blocks along the Tanganyika valley are forecast to have 7.25 billion barrels of reserves while the nine offered in the Cuvette Centrale, or central basin, have an estimated 6.4 billion barrels, according to Budimbu. The Ndunda block near the Atlantic coast has an estimated 130 million barrels, while Nganzi potentially has 2 billion barrels, and Yema/Matamba-Makanzi 800 million barrels, he said. Congo is the largest country by landmass in sub-Saharan Africa with significant potential oil reserves but its current production is only about 25,000 barrels per day from aging oil blocks controlled by France’s Perenco SA on the Atlantic Ocean coast. While the blocks have potential to generate revenue in an impoverished nation whose budget for this year is projected at $11.1 billion, the tender offers have sparked concern among environmentalists over opening Congo’s massive rainforests and the world’s largest peatlands to exploration. The oil ministry said in a video presentation that the blocks were chosen “meticulously” and take into account the sensitivity of the country’s protected areas.
OPEC Authorizes Iraq to Increase Output to 4.5 Mln Bpd - Iraq’s representative at OPEC said the organization had agreed to the country increasing its output to 4.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) starting from June, the state news agency (INA) reported on Saturday. There will be further increases of 50,000 bpd in output in each of the months July, August and September, INA added, citing Muhammad Saadoun’s statements. Iraq pumped 4.43 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in April, 16,000 bpd above its OPEC+ quota for that month, according to data from state-owned marketer SOMO seen by Reuters on May 11. Iraq’s March production was impacted by field outages in the south, pushing its output 222,000 bpd below the production ceiling for that month. Like several other OPEC members, Iraq has struggled to pump more oil at a time of already tight global supply and soaring prices. Almost half the global shortfall in planned oil supply by OPEC and its allies – a grouping known as OPEC+ – is down to Nigeria and Angola, due to several factors including the exit by Western oil majors from African projects. OPEC+ produced 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) below its production targets in March, as Russian output began to decline following sanctions imposed by the West, a report from the producer alliance seen by Reuters showed. Russia produced about 300,000 bpd below its target in March at 10.018 million bpd, based on secondary sources, the report showed. OPEC+ compliance with the production cuts rose to 157 percent in March, from 132 percent in February, the data showed, the highest since the group introduced record production cuts of about 10 million bpd in May 2020 to counter the impact of the pandemic on demand. OPEC+ agreed last month to another modest monthly oil output boost of 432,000 bpd for May, resisting pressure by major consumers to pump more. As the group unwinds production cuts, several producers, namely West African countries struggling with under-investment and an exodus of international energy companies, are failing to keep up. At its meeting last month, OPEC+ also ditched the Paris-based IEA as one of its secondary sources, replacing it with consultancies Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy.
Oil giant Aramco reports record first quarter as oil prices soar - Oil giant Aramco reported a more-than 80% jump in net profit Sunday, topping analyst expectations and setting a new quarterly earnings record since its IPO. The Saudi Arabian behemoth said net income rose 82% to $39.5 billion in the first three months of the year, up from $21.7 billion over the same period last year. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast net income of $38.5 billion dollars. The record quarter for Aramco comes amid a standout quarter for Big Oil, which is benefiting from a sharp rise in oil and gas prices. Aramco said its earnings were driven by higher crude oil prices, rising volumes sold and improved downstream margins. "During the first quarter, our strategic downstream expansion progressed further in both Asia and Europe, and we continue to develop opportunities that complement our growth objectives," Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser said in the earnings release Sunday. "Against the backdrop of increased volatility in global markets, we remain focused on helping meet the world's demand for energy that is reliable, affordable and increasingly sustainable." With a market cap of around $2.43 trillion on Wednesday, Aramco last week surpassed Apple to become the world's most valuable company. The companies' market caps looked similar on Sunday. Aramco stock is up over 15% so far in 2022. In March, the oil giant reported that its full-year profit last year more than doubled due to the ongoing rise in oil prices, driven higher by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, looming European Union sanctions on Russian oil and the prospect of tighter supply. The Aramco results reflect an ongoing momentum in the oil and gas industry, which has benefited from a more-than 45% increase in prices since the start of the year. Earnings from Aramco's global peers such as BP and Shell have hit their highest level in years, despite incurring write-downs for exiting operations in Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. Aramco is rewarding investors as a result. The company said it would use $4 billion dollars in retained earnings to distribute bonus shares to shareholders — amounting to one share for every 10 shares held. It also kept its enormous dividend stable at $18.8 billion dollars, covered by a 68% year-on-year increase in free cash flow to $30.6 billion dollars.
Persian Gulf’s smallest oil producer looks to gas imports to meet demand — The smallest oil producer in the Persian Gulf is turning to natural gas imports to meet rising energy demand as production from its own deposits slips. Bahrain plans to import at least five or six cargoes of liquefied natural gas in 2025, according to Mark Thomas, chief executive officer of Nogaholding, which manages the country’s oil and gas infrastructure. The country may take a cargo of LNG in 2023 to test its infrastructure and plans to buy three to five cargoes in 2024 to meet surging demand during the summer months, he said. Middle Eastern oil producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are ploughing billions of dollars into finding new gas resources for their expanding chemical and industrial sectors. As OPEC’s first and third-largest producers they can pump as much as 12 million and 4 million barrels a day, respectively. Bahrain is just a fraction of that and faces similar problems as it develops new, gas-dependent industries to bolster growth. Bahrain is at the “tipping point between supply and demand” as declining output will struggle to keep up with consumption unless the island nation can develop new resources, Thomas said in an interview Monday at the Middle East Petroleum Gas Conference. Bahrain is working with two international oil companies on exploration of unconventional offshore gas fields, said Thomas, without identifying the partners. Nogaholding is seeking an independent financial adviser to review the debt structure of the country’s oil businesses and to determine whether to sell assets to raise funds. Bahrain’s energy minister, speaking at the same conference, said the government would decide on a strategy to help fund further expansion of industry in Bahrain. That comes after Saudi Arabia sold shares in state producer Aramco and Abu Dhabi listed some of its oil assets.
CNOOC, Uganda petroleum authority conduct oil spill drill - The local branch of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) in Uganda and the Petroleum Authority of Uganda conducted the country's first oil spill emergency drill in Hoima, which will help enhance the nation's response capability to deal with pollution emergencies, the company told the Global Times on Tuesday. The drill simulated the rupture of inflow pipeline between the No.3 well filed in Kingfisher oilfield and the central processing station, incorporating different models and various scenarios, which fully tested the emergency response capability and collaboration between Uganda and oilfield operators in case of sudden crude oil spills. Chen Zhuobiao, the president of CNOOC Uganda, said that the company will continue strengthening safety awareness and urge contractors to implement safety and environmental protection measures to ensure that construction work for the Kingfisher oilfield project progress smoothly. A local official said that the drill improved the emergency response capability and practical skills for local oilfield operators, while enhanced the coordination capability of emergency disposal for various departments of the Uganda government, adding that it significantly promoted safe and efficient development of local oilfields. Uganda discovered the country's first commercial oilfield in 2006 in the Lake Albert area, covering an area of 1,518 square kilometers with 6 billion barrels of reserves. CNOOC-participated Lake Alberta project officially launched construction in February 2022, which is expected to begin production early 2025. The project will bring new development opportunities for Uganda to become an important crude oil producer in East Africa.
China In Talks To Buy Cheap Russian Oil For Strategic Reserves - China is in talks with Russia to buy its cheap oil to replenish strategic reserves, in the latest indicator of deepened energy ties between the two large powers and rivals to the United States. It's also the latest sign that a mulled EU Russian oil embargo may in the end be blunted before it ever gets off the ground, amid continuing inter-EU resistance led by Hungary.Bloomberg reports Thursday that "The crude would be used to fill China’s strategic petroleum reserves, and talks are being conducted at a government level with little direct involvement from oil companies, said a person with knowledge of the plan."Currently the EU is negotiating toward a phased embargo, seeking to find compromise with those central and eastern European members which are heavily dependent on Russian energy.The prior US ban on imports of Russian oil, which came early in the invasion of Ukraine, has already served to push more Russian oil tankers east towards Asia, diverting from Western markets. India too has reportedly been taking advantage of the comparatively cheaper prices.A source privy to the talks said they aren't close enough that a deal is guaranteed to be signed, nor is an estimated volume of crude Beijing is reportedly seeking known at this point."There is still room to replenish stocks and it would be a good opportunity for them to do so, if they can be sourced on commercially attractive terms," a senior oil analyst at industry firm Kpler, Jane Xie, told Bloomberg.The report cites the data analytics firm to estimate that China's "overall stockpiles are at 926.1 million barrels, up from 869 million barrels in mid-March -- but still 6% lower than a record in September 2020." And by way of comparison, "the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has a capacity of 714 million barrels. It currently holds about 538 million barrels."
Oil prices rise on China's demand recovery, gasoline at an all-time high (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday on optimism that China would see significant demand recovery after positive signs that coronavirus pandemic was receding in the hardest-hit areas. Brent crude rose $1.34, or 1.2%, at $112.89 a barrel at 12:10 p.m. EDT (1710 EDT) 1342 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.22, or less than 0.1%, to $$112.71 a barrel. Shanghai aims to reopen broadly and allow normal life to resume for the city's 25 million people from June 1, a city official said on Monday, after declaring that 15 of its 16 districts had eliminated cases outside quarantine areas. However, it is estimated that 46 cities in China are under lockdowns, hitting shopping, factory output and energy usage. In line with the unexpected industrial output decline, China processed 11% less crude oil in April, with daily throughput the lowest since March 2020. U.S. gasoline futures set an all-time high again on Monday as falling stockpiles fuelled supply concerns. [EIA/S] "Oil prices will remain bullish, especially WTI's near-term contract, as U.S. gasoline prices continued to rise amid weaker imports of petroleum products from Europe," Oil prices also found some support as the European Union's diplomats and officials expressed optimism about reaching a deal on a phased embargo of Russian oil despite concerns about supply in eastern Europe. Austria expects the EU to agree on the sanctions in the coming days, Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said on Monday. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said the bloc would need a few more days to find agreement. "With a planned ban by the EU on Russian oil and slow increase in OPEC output, oil prices are expected to stay close to the current levels near $110 a barrel," said Naohiro Niimura, a partner at Market Risk Advisory.
Oil Rallies on China's Reopening Hope, Geopolitical Strife -- Reversing earlier losses, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange rallied in afternoon trade Monday, sending the international crude benchmark to a seven-week high $114.24 per barrel (bbl) settlement amid a one-two punch of heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe after Sweden and Norway made a formal decision to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the potential for a broader reopening of China's economy that is expected to boost oil demand this summer. China's economy suffered sharp contraction in April, with both manufacturing and service sectors eroding to levels not seen since the beginning of the Wuhan outbreak in February 2020. As COVID controls tightened the grip over China's major cities and mobility came to a standstill, refinery run rates plunged a staggering 11% in April, sending daily crude throughputs to their lowest point since March 2020. On the national level, industrial output declined 2.9% in April, but was isolated to Shanghai and Jilling -- the two areas most affected by the COVID lockdowns, with contraction for the two regions closer to 30%. Meanwhile, unemployment rate in China's 31 largest cities climbed to 6.1% in April, the second highest jobless rate since a 6.2% peak during the onset of the COVID 19 pandemic. Reports of social strife across China's universities likely pressured officials in Shanghai this weekend to signal the end of draconian lockdowns. Shanghai Vice Mayor Chen Tong said businesses such as shopping malls and hair salons will allow to gradually reopen next month, while consumers could shop in "an orderly way" under some restrictions. In European Union, geopolitical tensions flared after Sweden and Finland made an official bid to join NATO -- a decision Russian President Vladimir Putin called "a mistake." He said the movement of troops or weapons into new NATO states would cause Russia to react. Last week, Russian government announced countersanctions on several private companies in Germany and Poland that receive Russian gas through Nord Stream 1 and Yamal-Europe pipeline. Both pipelines are the only alternatives to the pipeline network that runs through Ukraine which was partially shutdown by Ukrainian authorities. Since then, Germany's government announced a plan to completely phase-out Russian oil imports by the end of the year even if a broader EU ban on Russian oil remains elusive. Russian exports of naphtha, a key component in diesel production, plunged in April to just about 333,000 barrels per day, according to Bloomberg calculations using data from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. That's the lowest export rate since at least the beginning of 2016. Europe's imports of diesel from Russia are expected to drop following Sunday's (May 15) deadline, when sanctions on state-owned Rosneft Oil and Gazprom Neft take effect. At settlement, NYMEX June West Texas Intermediate rallied $3.71 bbl to $114.20 bbl, and Brent crude advanced to $114.24 bbl, up $2.69 bbl. NYMEX June RBOB futures climbed to a fresh record-high settlement of $4.0229 gallon on the spot continuous chart, while the June ULSD contract declined 1.37 cents to $3.9075 gallon.
Failure To Implement Russian Oil Ban Could Send Oil Crashing To $65 -- A key factor in the upper band of the benchmark crude oil trading ranges over the past weeks is market concern over a ban of Russian oil exports to the European Union (E.U.). Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Europe was importing around 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from Russia and another 1.5 million bpd of oil products, mostly diesel. This fear, though, is vastly overblown for several reasons analysed below. The removal of this particular fear factor in the oil price will allow oil prices to move back over the course of this year to the level they were before the Russia-Ukraine ‘war premium’ began to be priced in by the smart money in September 2021, which was around US$65 per barrel (pb) of Brent. The primary reason why a meaningful E.U. ban on Russian oil (or gas) will not occur is that it would require the unanimous backing of all of its 27 member countries. Even before the E.U.’s 27 member states met on 8 May to discuss pushing forward with the ban on Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia had made it clear that they were not going to vote in favour of it. According to figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Hungary imported 70,000 bpd, or 58 percent, of its total oil imports in 2021 from Russia, while the figure for Slovakia was even higher, at 105,000 bpd, equating to 96 percent of all its oil imports last year. Other E.U. countries also heavily reliant on Russia’s Southern Druzhba pipeline running through Ukraine and Belarus have also made it clear that they are not willing to support the ban on Russian oil exports, the most vocal of which have been the Czech Republic (68,000 bpd, or 50 percent or its 2021 oil imports came from Russia) and Bulgaria (which is almost completely dependent on gas supplies from Russia’s state-owned oil giant Gapzrom, and its only refinery is owned by Russia’s state-owned oil giant, Lukoil, providing over 60 percent of its total fuel requirements). Other E.U. member states that are also especially dependent on Russian oil imports are Lithuania (185,000 bpd, or 83 percent of its 2021 total oil imports) and Finland (185,000 bpd, or 80 percent of its total oil imports). Even compromise proposals offered by the E.U. of allowing Hungary and Slovakia to continue to use Russian oil until the end of 2024 (and the Czech Republic until June 2024) were not enough to remove their opposition to the idea of the E.U. ban on Russian oil. […]All of this rhetorical flim-flam by Germany and the E.U. has resulted in an oil price that remains way above where it should be, given the confluence of multiple bearish factors currently at play. On the supply side there remain definite pledges from the U.S. Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm, to engineer a “significant increase” in domestic energy supply by the end of the year, with the U.S. also working to identify at least three million bpd of new global oil supply. There remains the prospect of further strategic petroleum releases as and when required both from the U.S. and from member countries of the IEA, and of a new ‘nuclear deal’ with Iran as the U.S. is still open to the idea. Additionally, the U.S.’s ability to pressure OPEC into increasing production has been increased by its resuscitating the threat of the ‘NOPEC’ Bill. On the demand side, there remains further likely destruction from the COVID-related lockdowns across China, and no prospect of its ‘zero-COVID’ policy being meaningfully relaxed, and of a series of U.S. interest rate hikes stifling economic growth elsewhere. It is apposite to note at this point that even without these bearish factors in play, Brent crude was trading at around US$65 pb before the real Russia-Ukraine war premium was kicked in by the smart money in September 2021 when U.S. intelligence officers started to notice highly unusual Russian military movements on the Ukraine border after the conclusion of the joint Russia-Belarus military exercises that had taken place.
Oil prices fall as EU fails to ban Russian oil exports -Oil prices fell on Tuesday on supply uncertainties as EU countries have so far failed to agree to ban Russian oil exports in the face of opposition from Hungary. International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $114.25 per barrel at 0619 GMT for a 0.47% decrease after closing the previous session at $114.79 a barrel. American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $111.78 per barrel at the same time for a 0.03% loss after the previous session closed at $111.82 a barrel. Top EU diplomats on Monday gathered in Brussels to discuss the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine war and to show the bloc’s support for Western Balkan countries. During a two-day meeting, the ministers planned to hold talks on the sixth sanctions package against Russia proposed by the European Commission last week, which includes highly divisive plans on the imposition of an oil embargo. However, the EU’s efforts have been facing opposition from Hungary, which demands “15-18 billion euros” from the bloc to mitigate the cost of ditching Russian crude.” “Unfortunately, the whole (European) Union is held hostage by one country which cannot help us to find consensus,” Lithuania’s top diplomat Gabrelius Landsbergis said on Monday, referring to Hungary. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Monday also confirmed that Hungary appears to be the only country raising opposition. On the demand side, weak economic data from China, which added to investor concerns over an economic downturn amid price pressure and rising borrowing costs, also put downward pressure on oil prices. Retail sales and factory output in China fell in April to their lowest levels in roughly two years, according to official data. Chinese data also showed that the economy processed 11% less crude oil in April than a year earlier, a result of the country’s restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Oil Futures Plunge in MOC Trade Ahead of US Stock Report -- Oil futures nearest delivery fell more than 2% in market-on-close trade Tuesday in reaction to reports suggesting the Biden administration is prepared to lift some sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports amid a tightening global market as traders positioned ahead of the release of weekly U.S. inventory report. Demand for motor gasoline regained momentum in the second week of May, according to DTN Refined Fuels Demand data, increasing 2.7% from the previous week. At 225 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles currently stand at the lowest level this year and about 5% below the five-year average.The situation is more dire for distillate stocks that fell to their lowest level in 17 years in early May and are about 23% below the five-year average. U.S. distillate inventories likely halted a destocking pattern near 104 million bbl last week, according to industry analysts.Commercial crude oil inventories are projected to have climbed by 1.4 million bbl for the week ended May 13, although estimates range from a decrease of 1.6 million bbl to an increase of 4 million bbl. Refinery tun rates likely rose by 0.6% from the previous week to 90.6% of capacity.The closely watched report from the American Petroleum Institute is scheduled for release at 4:30 p.m. ET, followed by official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Wednesday morning.Media airwaves were hit with reports Tuesday afternoon that Biden administration will begin to ease some sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports to encourage ongoing dialogue between the South American President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition. Although details of negotiations have not been made public, speculation has swirled for months that the White House is prepared to replace some Russian oil exports sanctioned in response to President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine with Venezuelan barrels. Previously, the White House allowed Chevron to negotiate a license with Venezuelan state-owned oil company PDVSA but has not allowed entry into any production agreement. That might change this week.According to the latest data, Venezuela's crude oil production now stands at its lowest level in more than 50 years. Output in April averaged just 668,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to OPEC, down markedly from a presanction high of 2.3 million bpd in 2018. At settlement, NYMEX June West Texas Intermediate plunged $1.80 bbl to $112.40 bbl, and Brent crude declined to $111.93 bbl, down $2.31 bbl. NYMEX June RBOB futures retreated 8.12 cents from Monday's $4.0640 record-high settlement on the spot continuous chart to $3.9417 gallon, while the June ULSD contract dropped 10.82 cents to $3.7993 gallon.
API Reports Inventory Draws In Crude, Gasoline Despite SPR Release -The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a draw this week for crude oil of 2.445 million barrels, compared to analyst predictions of a 1.533 million barrel build.The draw comes even as the Department of Energy released 5 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in Week Ending May 13.U.S. crude inventories have shed some 76 million barrels since the start of 2021 and about 18 million barrels since the start of 2020, according to API data.In the week prior, the API reported a build in crude oil inventories of 1.618 million barrels after analysts had predicted a draw of 457,000 barrels.Oil prices were trading up on Tuesday as the market anticipates a resurgence in oil demand from China, with Shanghai returning to normal as early as June 1.WTI was trading up 0.56% at $114.80 per barrel on the day at 11:21 a.m. ET—up roughly $15 per barrel on the week. Brent crude was trading up 0.51% on the day at $114.80—and up nearly $17 per barrel on the week, with the spread between the two benchmarks now completely evaporated.U.S. crude oil production fell to 11.8 million bpd in the week ending May 06—the first drop since the end of January. Crude production in the United States is down 1.3 million barrels per day from pre-pandemic times.This week, the API reported a draw in gasoline inventories of 5.102 million barrels for the week ending May 13—after the previous week's 823,000-barrel build.Distillate stocks saw a build in inventories of 1.075 million barrels for the week compared to last week's 662,000-barrel increase.Cushing saw a 3.071-million-barrel draw this week. Cushing inventories slipped to 28.242 million barrels in the week prior, as of May 6, according to EIA data—down from 59.2 million barrels at the start of 2021, and down from 37.3 millin barrels at the end of 2021.At 4:39 pm, ET, WTI was trading at $112 (-1.93%), with Brent trading at $111.30 (-2.58%).
WTI Gains After US Retail, Industrial Data Lift Outlook -- West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced in pre-inventory trade Wednesday after industry data from the American Petroleum Institute reported gasoline stocks in the United States declined by a larger-than-expected margin for the second consecutive week in May. This heightened fears over low inventory levels heading into the summer driving season, while upbeat data on consumer spending and industrial production for April showed continued momentum for the U.S. economy despite rising inflation. U.S. industrial production increased more than expected in April and marked the fourth consecutive month of gains above 0.8% amid continued strong demand for durable goods. Consumer demand for durable goods such as autos and home appliances have underpinned growth in manufacturing for more than two years into the pandemic. For comparison, production at U.S. factories for the first three months of the year was 0.6% higher compared with the same period a year ago even as inflation surged to a four-decade high 8.3%. "In April, all major market groups recorded gains, with most rising around 1%. A step-up in the production of motor vehicles contributed to increases of 1.5%, 3.3%, and 1.1% for consumer durables, transit equipment, and durable materials, respectively," said the U.S. Federal Reserve in its monthly report on industrial production. Furthermore, U.S. retail sales for April showed Americans are still spending on merchandise at a rapid clip, potentially fueled by credit-card borrowing, suggest some economists. The value of overall retail purchases increased 0.9% in April, after an upwardly revised 1.4% gain in March, Commerce Department figures showed Tuesday. Excluding vehicles and gas stations, sales rose 1% last month. The figures are not adjusted for inflation. Separately, API late Tuesday showed commercial crude oil stocks in the United States declined 2.445 million barrels (bbl) for the week ended May 13, contrasting with estimates for a 1.4-million-bbl build, with inventory at the Cushing tank farm in Oklahoma having been drawn down 3.071 million bbl. Gasoline stocks declined by a steep 5.102 million bbl that was more than estimates for a 1-million-bbl decrease. Against expectations for no change in distillate fuel inventory during the week ended May 13, API reported a 1.075-million-bbl build. Demand for motor gasoline regained momentum in the second week of May, according to DTN Refined Fuels Demand data, increasing 2.7% from the previous week. At 225 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles currently stand at the lowest level this year and about 5% below the five-year average. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX June West Texas Intermediate advanced $1.91 bbl to $114.32 bbl, and Brent crude rallied to $113.36 bbl, up $1.43 bbl. NYMEX June RBOB futures softened 0.40 cents to $3.9770 gallon, retreating from Monday's $4.0640 record high on the spot continuous chart, while the June ULSD contract surged 2.67 cents to $3.8260 gallon.
WTI Erases Gains Despite Big Crude, Gasoline Draws; SPR At 1987 Lows - Oil pries are up overnight as China relaxed some of its quarantine restrictions on Shanghai extending gains from the surprise crude draws reported by API. For now, all eyes are on the middle market as refineries shift their mix amid record high gasoline and diesel prices..."Gasoline prices on the exchanges had followed the two price peaks seen on the crude oil market in March to only a disproportionate extent. Margins had increased on the diesel market in particular, partly because product stocks were and remain very low. The focus appears to be shifting as the summer driving season draws ever closer in the US: the crack spread on the diesel market has dropped back noticeably while that on the gasoline market has soared," Will the official data confirm API's draws after last week's huge official build in crude stocks? API
Crude -2.445mm (+1.553mm exp)
Cushing -3.071mm - biggest draw since Oct 2021
Gasoline -5.102mm - biggest draw since Oct 2021
Distillates +1.075mm
DOE
Crude -3.394mm (+1.553mm exp)
Cushing -2.403mm - biggest draw since Feb
Gasoline -4.779mm - biggest draw since Oct 21
Distillates +1.235mm
This is the 7th straight weekly draw in gasoline stocks (and 14th week of the last 15) and we are seeing a major crude draw... Distillates stockpiles recovered on the East Coast and nationally. Full Colonial pipes carrying maximum distillates and gasoline are moving at a much faster pace to Linden, New Jersey.The headline draw of 3.4 million barrels in crude stockpiles was supplemented by the withdrawal of another 5 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week. That’s 30 straight weeks of crude draws from the SPR, and there’s going to be many more of them to come.
Oil falls 2.5% as US refiners ramp up output, equities retreat – CNA Oil prices fell 2.5 per cent on Wednesday, reversing early gains as traders grew less worried about a supply crunch after government data showed U.S. refiners ramped up output, and as crude futures followed Wall Street lower. Brent crude futures for July settled down $2.82, or 2.5 per cent, at $109.11 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June fell $2.81, or 2.5 per cent, to $109.59 a barrel. Both benchmarks gave up early gains of $2-$3 a barrel following a change in risk sentiment as equity markets fell, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels last week, government data showed, an unexpected drawdown, as refiners ramped up output in response to tight product inventories and near-record exports that have forced U.S. diesel and gasoline prices to record levels. U.S. gasoline prices fell 5 per cent, two days after touching a record high. Capacity use on both the East Coast and Gulf Coast was above 95 per cent, putting those refineries close to their highest possible running rates. "While on the face of it, the report was extraordinarily bullish, they (refiners) are racing to put more refined product on the market... there's obviously a refiners response," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. The dollar strengthened and global stocks retreated on concerns about economic growth and rising inflation. Bearish sentiment also followed reports that the United States is planning to relax sanctions against Venezuela and allow Chevron Corp to negotiate oil licenses with state producer PDVSA. "The perception that we could see some more supply coming Venezuela coming into the market, along with the equity markets, it's causing some profit taking in a much-needed technical correction in the crude," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial. The European Union's failure to persuade Hungary to lift its veto on a proposed embargo on Russian oil was adding price pressure, although some diplomats expect agreement on a phased ban at a summit at the end of May. Ongoing supply concerns remained supportive. Russian crude output in April fell by nearly 9 per cent from the previous month, an internal OPEC+ report showed on Tuesday, as Western sanctions on Moscow curbed exports. On the demand side, hopes of further lockdown easing in China boosted expectations of a recovery. Authorities allowed 864 of Shanghai's financial institutions to resume work, sources said, and China has relaxed some COVID test rules for U.S. and other travelers.
Oil prices extend losses on fears of economic slowdown - Oil prices fell on Thursday, following earlier gains, on concerns that high fuel prices could hurt economic growth, but planned easing of restrictions in Shanghai and a tight supply outlook capped losses. Brent crude futures for July were down $1.25, or 1.2 percent, at $107.86 a barrel by 0932 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for June fell $1.96, or 1.8 percent, to $107.63 a barrel. Front-month prices for both benchmarks fell about 2.5 percent on Wednesday. “Slumping stocks led by the US retail sector raised concerns about growth, and with that, demand for fuels,” Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. Heavy falls on European and Asian stock markets followed Wall Street’s worst day since mid-2020, as stark warnings from some of the world’s biggest retailers underscored just how hard inflation is biting. The looming possibility of a European Union ban on Russian oil imports has been supporting prices, however. This month the EU proposed a new package of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special military operation.” That would include a total ban on oil imports in six months’ time, but the measures have not yet been adopted, with Hungary among the most vocal critics of the plan. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Moscow would send any oil rejected by European countries to Asia and other regions. Novak said Russian oil production was about 1 million bpd lower in April but had increased by 200,000 bpd to 300,000 bpd in May with more volumes expected to be restored next month. On Wednesday, the European Commission unveiled a 210-billion-euro ($220-billion) plan for Europe to end its reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027, and to use the pivot away from Moscow to quicken its transition to green energy. Also, US crude inventories fell last week, an unexpected drawdown, as refiners ramped up output in response to tight product inventories and near-record exports that have forced US diesel and gasoline prices to record levels. Capacity use on both the East Coast and Gulf Coast was above 95 percent, propelling those refineries close to their highest possible running rates. In China, investors are closely watching plans to ease coronavirus curbs from June 1 in the most populous city of Shanghai, which could lead to a rebound in oil demand from the world’s top crude importer.
Oil Turns Higher as Traders Focus on Global Fuel Shortage -- After Thursday morning selloff triggered by concerns over a potential U.S. recession, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange turned positive to settle Thursday's session with gains between 2% and 3% as investors refocused on tightening fuel supplies in the United States, with nationwide distillate inventories drawn down to their lowest level in 14 years. Global commodity markets continue to suffer from persistent fuel shortages in the United States, Europe and Asia as economies bounced back from pandemic restrictions this year. Domestically, inventories of distillate fuels that are primarily used in manufacturing, shipping and construction fell to 105 million barrels (bbl) -- the lowest level since the summer of 2008 that was quickly followed by the onset of the great financial crisis and recession. Similar trend can be observed in Europe where distillate stocks also fell to a 14-year low 378 million bbl in April. China doesn't publicly disclose the size of its product and crude inventories, but wire services report that Beijing is actively engaging Moscow to buy additional oil to replenish its dwindling petroleum stocks. Refiners in China have been quietly buying Russian crude since the invasion, even as a COVID-19 resurgence dents consumption in the world's biggest crude importer. China's oil demand last month slumped 6.7% year-on-year as strict lockdowns confined millions to their homes. Kpler estimates China's overall crude stockpiles stand at 926.1 million bbl, up from 869 million bbl in mid-March -- but still 6% lower than a record in September 2020. By comparison, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds about 538 million bbl. Also lending price support, Wednesday's weekly report from the Energy Information Administration which revealed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell to their lowest point since January 2005 and gasoline stocks eroded to a fresh one-year low ahead of the summer driving season, with demand for the motor transportation fuel topping 9 million barrels per day (bpd) last week. Refinery crude throughputs climbed above the five-year average for the first time in a month as refiners processed over 15.9 million bpd, which helped ease concerns over a crunch in gasoline and diesel supplies. Earlier in the session, oil complex came under selling pressure from investor concerns over a potential recession looming over the U.S. economy with decades-high inflation and an aggressive rate hike trajectory laid out by the Federal Reserve seen slowing growth. The Federal Reserve, for its part, has said it won't stop hiking the federal funds rate until there is "clear and convincing" evidence that inflation is slowing, West Texas Intermediate June futures rallied $2.62 to $112.21 bbl after hitting an intrasession low of $105.13 bbl, and the July contract settled at more than $2 discount ahead of the June contract's expiration Friday afternoon (May 20). Brent crude for July delivery advanced $2.93 to $112.04 bbl. NYMEX June RBOB rallied 11.11 cents to $3.8317 gallon, while front-month ULSD gained more than 12 cents to settle at $3.7920 gallon.
Oil prices steady amid prospect of increase in Chinese demand in week ending May 20 -Oil prices were mainly steady on Friday as loosening of COVID-19 restrictions in China helps fuel demand and the impending EU ban on Russian crude jeopardizes stability of the global demand and supply balance. International benchmark Brent crude opened trading day at $114.24 on Monday but dropped to $112.41 at closing as European countries failed to come to a unanimous understanding of how to enact a ban on Russian crude exports. American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended the day at $107.37 on Monday after starting at $107.20. On the last trading day of the week, the news flow from China shows its effect on the market. The record cut in loan interest rates in China reduced the economic concerns in the markets to some extent. However, the detection of COVID-19 cases outside the quarantine zones in Shanghai, which was struggling with the epidemic, brought up the concerns about the measures again. In Shanghai, which has entered the 8th week of the quarantine measures implemented due to the pandemic triggered by omicron cases in China, one of the world's largest oil consumers, manufacturing, construction and trade companies carry out their activities under closed-circuit epidemic protection measures. China on Friday cut a key interest rate for long-term loans for the second time this year as part of a push to overcome the impact of stringent COVID-19 lockdowns and a downturn in the property sector. The five-year loan prime rate, a reference for mortgages, was lowered by 15 basis points to 4.45% from 4.6%, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement. In addition, Iran is having difficulties in selling its crude as more Russian oil is available and Iranian crude exports to China declined sharply since the start of the Ukraine war as China buys discounted Russian oil. Meanwhile, the European Commission issued new guidance on Tuesday on how EU companies can pay for Russian gas in rubles without violating the bloc's sanctions. On Wednesday, European Commission head Ursula Von der Leyen unveiled a €300 billion ($315 billion) plan to end Europe's reliance on Russian energy. She outlined a three-step plan, called Repower EU, which focuses on the demand side, supply side and accelerating the clean energy transition. A possible European ban on Russian oil imports is still being discussed within the respective EU bodies and negotiations are going on between the member states. Oil prices closed at $112.04 on Thursday and rose on Friday to around $112.34 at 1226 GMT. WTI was at $109.80 per barrel at the same time after the previous session closed at $109.89 a barrel.
Oil Gains With Equities Rebound, Russian Output in Focus - With U.S. equities rebounding after a three-session selloff, oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced in early trade Friday as investors reassess the impact of the disruption to Russian oil production this summer after China reportedly entered discussions to buy additional oil from Russia to replenish its crude oil reserves. China's oil reserves are estimated to have fallen around 10% so far this spring, with Kpler estimating China's overall crude stockpiles currently stand at 926.1 million barrels (bbl). Storage capacity could be as high as 1 billion bbl, with China secretive regarding its oil infrastructure and inventory levels. China's reserves are said to have reached a record high in September 2020 when Chinese traders went on a buying spree to scoop up discounted oil. For comparison, U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds about 538 million bbl. China's decision to restock reserves with discounted Russian oil would lend support for the Russian oil industry that has been battered by Western sanctions in the aftermath of its invasion of Ukraine. After falling more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, Russian oil production recovered somewhere between 200,000 and 300,000 bpd in early May, with the rebound expected to continue in June, according to Russian Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Nonetheless, Russian oil production is still seen falling by as much as 17% in 2022, according to government forecasts, as the country struggles with Western sanctions The scale of the production decline would be the most significant since the 1990s when the oil industry suffered from mismanagement and underinvestment. In April, Russia's oil production is estimated to have fallen to 9.14 million bpd -- the lowest since Spring 2020. Disruption of Russian oil production comes at a time when global commodity markets suffer from acute shortages of fuels, especially middle distillates which correlate closely with economic activity. Middle distillates are primarily used in manufacturing, shipping and construction. Domestically, distillate inventories fell to the lowest level since the summer of 2008 that was quickly followed by the onset of the Great Financial Crisis and recession. Similar trends can be observed in Europe where distillate stocks also fell to a 14-year low 378 million bbl in April. Also lending price support, Wednesday's weekly report from the Energy Information Administration which revealed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell to their lowest point since January 2005 and gasoline stocks eroded to a fresh one-year low ahead of the summer driving season, with demand for the motor transportation fuel topping 9 million bpd last week. Refinery crude throughputs climbed above the five-year average for the first time in a month as refiners processed over 15.9 million bpd, which helped ease concerns over a crunch in gasoline and diesel supplies. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, West Texas Intermediate June futures gained $0.24 to $112.45 bbl ahead of expiration Friday afternoon, while the July WTI contract narrowed its discount to the expiring contract $2.21 bbl. Brent crude for July delivery advanced $0.53 to $112.57 bbl. NYMEX June RBOB rallied 3.55 cents to $3.8672 gallon, while front-month ULSD traded mostly unchanged near $3.7935 gallon.
Oil Hit Weekly Gain as Rising Fuel Demand Offset Broader Economic Fears | Rigzone -Oil set its fourth straight weekly gain as product markets remain tight amid strong demand, eclipsing concerns about an economic slowdown that have roiled financial markets. West Texas Intermediate rose to settle above $113 a barrel, after fluctuating in a session where equities slid closer to a bear market, weighing prices. Despite the choppy trading, oil posted its best run of weekly increases since mid-February. Rising demand for motor fuels and shrinking inventories ahead of the summer driving season underscored a fundamentally tight supply situation even as broader economic fears shook equity markets. “There continues to be a disconnect between the risk financial markets associate with crude financial assets and the physical market that is trying to digest SPR releases to meet product demand,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “This dichotomy keeps markets fragmented and volatile - it could end up being a cruel summer for energy traders.” Crude has surged almost 50% this year, also helped along by Russia’s assault on Ukraine that sent shock waves through markets. While the US and UK have announced bans on Russian exports, flows to Asia have picked up. China is seeking to replenish strategic stockpiles with cheap Russian oil even as officials grapple to suppress Covid-19 outbreaks. India has also boosted purchases. There were mixed signals from China on Friday. While banks cut a key interest rate for long-term loans by a record to bolster a slowing economy, Shanghai found the first cases of Covid-19 outside quarantine in six days. It raises questions on whether the easing of the city’s lockdown will be impacted. Prices: WTI for June delivery rose $1.02 to settle at $113.23 a barrel in New York. WTI for July, which has greater volume and open interest, rose 39 cents to settle at $110.28. Brent for July rose 51 cents to settle at $112.55 a barrel. The global benchmark’s prompt spread, the difference between its two nearest contracts, widened to as much as $2.59 in backwardation -- a bullish pattern -- compared with $1.80 a week ago Traders are also keeping a close eye on refined products market, as a a global crunch on inventories coincides with entering the summer driving season. On Wednesday, US crude data revealed continued market tightness with gasoline inventories falling to the lowest since December and a pickup in demand. Oil’s jump has contributed to the fastest inflation in decades, prompting the US Federal Reserve to vow that it’ll go on raising interest rates until there are clear signs that price pressures are easing. That’s spurred wild shifts in investors’ appetite for risk, swinging equity, bond and commodity markets.
Qatar pledges $2m to address oil tanker threat off Yemeni coast - Qatar has pledged a $2 million donation to the combat the threat posed by the floating oil tanker ‘Safer’ off Yemen’s coast. This was announced during Qatar’s speech, presented by Nasser bin Ibrahim Al Langawi, Ambassador to the Netherlands, at a high-level pledging conference for Yemen, co-sponsored by the UN and the Dutch government, to confront the threat of the ‘Safer’ oil tanker. Al Langawi also praised the UN’s ongoing efforts to negotiate with the Yemeni government over the floating oil tanker ‘Safer’ off Yemen’s coast, as well as the active involvement of UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen David Gressly. The FSO Safer, which carries more than four times the oil on board the Exxon Valdez when it ran aground in Prince William Sound in Alaska, in 1989, has the potential to become one of the biggest environmental disasters in history. The ship might disintegrate or explode at any time, according to international authorities, wreaking havoc on the countries and marine life along the Red Sea, as well as worldwide supply chains that rely on transiting those seas. The UN has only raised half of the $80 million it needs to start an emergency operation to remove the oil off the ship it calls a “time bomb.” Officials from the United Nations want the project completed by September, when the risk of a breakup increases due to winter seas. Since 2015, when a Saudi-led coalition intervened in Yemen’s war against the Iran-aligned Houthis after they deposed the internationally recognised government from Sanaa, the Safer has been stranded off the Ras Issa oil terminal without repair. The Houthis, who control the area where the tanker is anchored and the national oil company that owns it, inked a pact with the UN in early March to deal with it. The objective is to move the oil to a secure temporary vessel before arranging long-term storage. Gressly revealed that the first several months of the work will be spent prepping the perilous vessel for safe oil unloading, which the UN intends to begin within weeks.
Imperialist powers back Israel’s assassination of Al-Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh - Ten-strong rows of Israeli security forces in full combat gear brutally attacked Palestinians mourning the murder of Shireen Abu Akleh, the widely respected Al Jazeera journalist, on Friday. They grabbed Palestinian flags from mourners as they tried to carry her coffin to Jerusalem’s Old City and then to the Roman Catholic cemetery on Mount Zion. The 51-year-old Palestinian-American reporter, clad in a press vest and helmet and standing in open view near a roundabout, had been covering constant raids by Israeli security forces in the West Bank city of Jenin, when she was targeted and shot by Israeli snipers Wednesday morning. Another journalist was hospitalised. After her death, police stormed her family’s home demanding they take down the Palestinian flag and end the gathering and singing. Such were the police beatings on the day of the funeral that the pall bearers nearly dropped the coffin. Soldiers fired sponge-tipped bullets and threw stun grenades at the crowds gathered at the hospital morgue until Abu Akleh’s family were forced to change plans and whisk her coffin away in a car as a police officer removed the Palestinian flags covering it. Israel’s assassination sparked outrage and sorrow, with thousands of Palestinians turning up to greet her coffin and help carry it through the West Bank cities of Jenin, Nablus and Ramallah. Despite restrictions preventing Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza entering East Jerusalem, mourners, Christian and Muslim, came from all over Israel, making this the biggest Palestinian funeral in decades, exceeding that of Yasser Arafat in Ramallah in 2004. The Israeli authorities had tried to pin the blame for Abu Akleh’s killing on the Palestinians, claiming she fell as they fired on Israeli soldiers and issuing a blatantly faked video clip of Palestinian fighters in a narrow alleyway as “proof”. The US embassy, rejecting any responsibility to investigate the death of an American citizen—Abu Akleh held dual Palestinian-US nationality—rushed to tweet the same clip. After visiting the site of the clip, the human rights group B’Tselem said it was impossible for Abu Akleh to have been hit from there. On Friday, the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) public prosecutor concluded after an autopsy and interviews with witnesses that Abu Akleh had been deliberately shot in the head by Israeli forces. In the face of the overwhelming evidence, Israel has had to retract its claim, admit that Israeli forces might have killed her and offer the PA a “joint investigation” into her killing. The PA is demanding an independent international investigation.
Fresh Fighting Grips Libyan Capital Over Decade After Obama's Regime Change War - Well over a decade after the Obama-Hillary led NATO military intervention in Libya in 2011, which resulted in the overthrow and violent street execution of Muammar Gaddafi, the capital of Tripoli has once again fallen into chaos as gunfights between rival factions threaten a fragile truce. For years oil-rich Libya has been fought over by two rival governments, one based in the east and the UN-recognized national government in Tripoli. This week's breakout in fighting began when according to Al Jazeera, "Fathi Bashagha, who was appointed prime minister three months ago by the East-based House of Representatives, arrived in Tripoli in the early morning hours with cabinet members and was reportedly accompanied by the Tripoli-based Nawasi Brigade militia."Bashagha was forced to leave the capital a mere four hours after arriving given his presence triggered attacks by local rival militias. Currently, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah is the prime minister of the UN/US-backed Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, but his eastern rival Tobruk-based parliament says his term has ended, and that Bashagha must take his rightful post. However 'interim' PM Dbeibah has refused to hand over power until a properly elected government is in place. He's instead described Bashagha's bid as illegal, part of a "desperate attempt to spread terror and chaos."
Watch: Iran Rolls Out Digital Food-Rationing - Via Off-Guardian.org,Iran is set to be the first country to roll out a food-rationing scheme based on new biometric IDs.Where vaccine passports failed, food passports will now be eagerly accepted by hungry people who can’t afford rapidly inflating food prices.This is the realization of a longstanding agenda by the Rockefeller/UN/WEF crowd to, as Kissinger put it, “control food, and control people.”Christian breaks it down in this Ice Age Farmer broadcast...
Gasoline Sales Soar as Indian Drivers Escape Searing Summer Heat - India’s gasoline sales soared over the first half of May for the best start to a month in more than two years as people utilized their air-conditioned cars to escape a record-breaking heatwave. The three biggest retailers sold 1.28 million tons of gasoline during May 1-15, up 14% from the corresponding period in April, according to refinery officials with knowledge of the matter. That’s also the biggest volume sold over the first half of a month since at least March 2020.
Crisis-Hit Sri Lanka Defaults On Debt As It Runs Out Of Fuel - There's no money to buy petrol, the crisis-hit Sri Lankan government said Wednesday as it urged citizens to "not to wait in line" for fuel, and following violent protests in the streets, which started in early April in the capital of Colombo and quickly spread across the country due to soaring prices amid food and other essential resource shortages like medicine. On Tuesday the new prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, declared in a television address that Sri Lanka was down to it's "last day of petrol" amid the most severe crisis in over seven decades. He said the country would need an immediate bail-out of at least $75 million of foreign currency just to cover the next few days of essential imports.He additionally signaled the central bank would be forced to print money if it hoped to pay government wages. Parliament has further been informed that the government has missed its April 18 deadline to pay $78 million in global bonds payments, as well as another $105 million owed to Chinese banks, according to Bloomberg. Wednesday marked the end of a 30-day grace period.Following the development, Reuters wrote "Sri Lanka is expected to be placed into default by rating agencies on Wednesday after the non-payment of coupons on two of its sovereign bonds."It's predicted to be just the beginning of a historic default on a total $12.6 billion of overseas bonds - the first such since the small country's independence from Britain in 1948, amid a continued spiral of runaway inflation and foreign exchange squeeze fueled by lack of dollars. Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera told parliament Wednesday, "There aren't enough dollars available to open letters of credit." He explained, "We are working to find funds but petrol will not be available at least until the weekend. The very small reserve stock of petrol is being released for essential services like ambulances," he said.PM Wickremesinghe followed by saying that an emergency bridge loan of $160 million has been secured from the World Bank - though it wasn't specified if the funds would be used for fuel imports.
Karachi Girl Students Win Top Prize at International Science Competition Held in Atlanta, Georgia - Two Pakistani girl students from Karachi have won the first physical science award of $1,500 each at Regeneron International Science and Engineering Fair (ISEF 2022) held May 7 through 13 in Atlanta, Georgia, United States. Ume Kulsoom and Talia Kusloom, the winners from Pakistan, are 12th grade students at Pak-Turk School in Gulshan-e-Iqbal, Karachi. Ume and Talia Kulsoom topped in the physical science category with their project titled "Vegan Leather Obtained from Cedrus Deodara (deodar tree)", according to an announcement by Society for Science which organized the event. Regeneron ISEF is the world’s largest international science competition held annually. Each year, nearly 1,800 high school students from more than 63 countries participate to showcase their work. The winning project from Pakistan was completed under the supervision of Hira Bashir, a science teacher at the Pakistan-Turkey Maarif International Schools College in Karachi. "Our intelligent students believe in the green world and in the conservation of resources, which encouraged them to come up with this unique idea," the school said.The ISEF is an annual event organized by the Society for Science and Engineering, a non-profit group headquartered in the US. The organization describes the event as "the world's largest international science competition," bringing together approximately 1,800 high school students from more than 63 countries each year. The Maarif Foundation has 28 schools and colleges across Pakistan that provide quality education to thousands of students in several cities, including Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore. Aqsa Ajmal, a graduate of Pakistan's National University of Science and Technology, was among six finalists for Lexus Design Award 2020 for industrial design. She won 3 million Yen (over $25,000) in funding and mentorship in an exclusive program in New York City under the guidance of prominent design leaders from a variety of design fields.
The Perverse Calls for More Russian Aggression in the Face of Its Methodical Operation in Ukraine- by Yves Smith - Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict has given unprecedented prominence to propaganda, it is easy to fall prey to being unduly interested in the messaging, since that’s far more visible than what is happening on the ground. The surrender of the Mariupol holdouts in the Azovstal factory is classic: rather than getting much in the way of the numbers leaving and their composition, the spin dominates. Yesterday’s depiction of them as “evacuees” today morphed into Russia-blaming:Russia Uses Surrender in Mariupol to Portray Ukrainians as Terrorists. And the Times presents Russia’s intent, announced from the get-go, to hold war crimes trials, as in response to Ukraine announcing it was prosecuting Russian soldiers. So yet another diversion.One thing that seems to have fried brains on all sides, the pro-Ukraine camp, some of the pro-Russia camp, and even some of the itty bitty cohort that tries to be realists and is too often treated as pro-Russian for not buying the shameless pro-Ukraine spin, is that Russia has been prosecuting its campaign at a measured pace…and to some, it’s been getting long in tooth. That’s not how the US likes to prosecute its wars, nor how Hollywood presents them. The US has also been trying to present Russia as behind schedule, when Russia hasn’t said if it has one, and since it doesn’t seem to be having any supply issues (contrary to Western claims), it’s not as if there is a need for urgency.Admittedly, Russia’s initial lightening runs and then its stationing of a 40km line of tanks led many to assume Russia would move quickly, particularly those of us who relied on Scott Ritter’s repeated predictions that Russia was within days or at most a couple of weeks of winning. Unfortunately, it does not appear that Ritter has experience in calling a war in real time, particularly one where the US does not have boots on the ground.Ritter’s propensity to paint in bright colors has led him to repeatedly walk back his aggressive estimates of Russian success. It sadly also appears to be the proximate cause of his Twitter ban. Recall that Ritter’s tweet disputing the official narrative called Joe Biden as a war criminal for aiding and abetting what were actually Ukraine killings. That may have been great for eyeballs, but it took the focus off why the party line on Bucha could not be accurate, and Ritter didn’t publish a tweetstorm to back up his assessment.Since at least April, there’s been some criticism of the war, it appears mainly at the top echelons of the government and society. One is of the botched opening days, which appears to be the result of poor intelligence (Russia had allegedly gotten some officials to agree to permit Russian forces to pass through. Two mayors who tried that were shot. The other collaborators either lost their nerve or always planned to betray Russia). Others think Russia should be more aggressive. From a Gilbert Doctorow post on Russian political talk shows, which he makes a point of watching regularly,
1,000 Azovstal Fighters Have Surrendered Since Monday, But Top Commanders Remain: Kremlin - According to fresh statements from Russia's defense ministry Wednesday nearly 700 more Ukrainian fighters have surrendered at Mariupol's Azovstal steelworks plant since the initial Tuesday reports that 300 had laid down their arms, with the wounded transferred to a Russian-controlled hospital.This would bring the total number to almost 1,000 fighters surrendered, according to the Russian statements. The Russian MoD counted "694 Ukrainian fighters who had been holed up in Mariupol’s Azovstal steelworks have surrendered over the past 24 hours, according to a report by the country’s RIA news agency."Regional media has reported, however, that the Ukrainian Azov battalion's top commanders have yet to come out of the large Azovstal plant. Pro-Russian separatist leader Denis Pushilin was cited as saying of the top leadership, "They have not left [the plant]."This despite Ukrainian defense officials claiming on Tuesday that there was an intentional decision to wind down "combat operations". The Ukrainians were taken into Russian detention after laying down their arms, in what the Kremlin asserted was an obvious "surrender".Additionally Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky dubbed it an "evacuation": "The operation to rescue the defenders of Mariupol was initiated by our military and our intelligence officers with the goal to return them home. The work continues and this work requires tact and time," he said. As we reported previously, multiple major Western media outlets also refused to use the term "surrender" in their headlines. "Hundreds of Ukrainian fighters were taken by bus to Russian controlled territory," a NY Times report said. "Ukraine's president said the combat mission in the city was over, capping some of the longest, fiercest resistance." At this point, the Russian military's official number of those fighters now in its custody from the Azovstal seige stands at 959 Ukrainian troops.
Sweden, Finland mull NATO entry as Turkey voices opposition - The Washington Post - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan voiced skepticism Friday about Sweden and Finland potentially joining the NATO defense alliance, a sign of dissension in efforts to revamp Europe’s security architecture after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The Turkish warning came a day after a landmark recommendation from Finland’s leaders that the country join NATO and as Swedish leaders appeared ready to follow their lead this weekend — a geopolitical earthquake following decades in which the countries resolutely stayed neutral.The war in Ukraine transformed attitudes in both countries and has set off a broader discussion in Europe about how to defend against a more dangerous Russia. Leaders of most NATO countries have indicated they welcome Finnish and Swedish membership and believe it would strengthen the alliance. NATO leaders were expected to sign off on the expansion at a June summit in Madrid — or that was the plan until Friday’s comments from Erdogan.NATO requires unanimity to approve new members, meaning Erdogan’s resistance could be a significant roadblock. Russia has threatened “retaliatory steps” against Finland and Sweden if they join.At a minimum, Erdogan’s remarks appeared to signal a desire to extract concessions from Sweden over its willingness to host members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, a group that has fought a decades-long insurrection against Turkey and is considered a terrorist movement by Ankara and the United States.“We are following the developments with Sweden and Finland, but we don’t have favorable thoughts,” Erdogan told reporters Friday.While he stopped short of announcing a veto of any potential membership bid, the Turkish leader accused Nordic countries of harboring “terrorist organizations.”The dispute showed that there were limits to NATO solidarity over the conflict in Ukraine, after 2½ months of fighting. Many NATO nations have channeled weaponry and other aid to Ukraine, and there is broad consensus that the alliance needs to strengthen its defenses against Russia. But as discussions continue about how much to bolster NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe, there are divisions about how exactly to respond.
The New York Times calls for China to end the Zero-COVID policy “no matter the cost!” Since the beginning of March, China has confronted the highly contagious Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, brought into the country from outside, with a high degree of social mobilization and considerable difficulty, but so far with considerable success. That has not stopped the American corporate press from repeatedly and severely denouncing China’s Zero-COVID policy, condemnations that rise in vitriol in proportion to China’s progress in beating back the tide of infections.In this regard, the recent New York Times report by the newspaper’s Shanghai bureau chief, Alexandra Stevenson, who reports on the news of the financial world, is particularly foul. Stevenson opens with a provocative statement: “As the rest of the world learns to live with COVID-19, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, wants his country to keep striving to live without it—no matter the cost.” The current wave of infections across mainland China began in early March. Since then, China has documented close to three-quarter million cases, of which a significant majority were asymptomatic. Because of broad public health measures that included lockdowns and business closures, dynamic mass testing, and redirection of resources to build isolation centers and bolster medical treatment facilities, deaths were kept to less than 600, essentially all occurring in Shanghai except two in the northeast province of Jilin. By comparison, over the same period, the US reported 90,000 deaths from COVID.The Chinese health authorities reported that there were 1,789 COVID cases on Sunday, of which 71 were newly imported. After reaching a peak of almost 27,000 in mid-April, the number of cases in Shanghai, China’s financial hub and the epicenter of the Omicron wave, had dropped to 1,369, of which 166 were symptomatic. The seven-day average has fallen below 3,000 daily cases, down more than 90 percent from its peak four weeks ago. Outside of Shanghai, only 349 new cases were registered across mainland China.Already, many Shanghai-based companies are resuming operations. City officials are targeting mid-May for opening after achieving zero-COVID community transmission. More than 99 percent of all new cases are currently among those under lockdown or quarantine, accounting for 2 million of the city’s 26 million inhabitants. Nearly 18 million residents (70 percent) are in designated precautionary areas, including communities, villages, companies and other sites without a positive case for more than two weeks.The elimination strategy appears promising despite repeated claims in the corporate media that Omicron can’t be eliminated. Deaths have been kept to the lowest possible level, life has been preserved, and the country is transitioning to reopening its production and distribution centers. Given this premise, Stevenson should be asked what she means by China’s intent to live without COVID “no matter the cost?” The cost for who? Obviously she cares only about the financial cost for Western investors, not the cost in human lives for the Chinese people.The Surprising Benefits of Voting for Change -Voters often face a key choice between continuity and change. But does voting for change – voting incumbents out of office – deliver better livelihoods for citizens? This column uses data from national elections conducted worldwide since 1945 to show that electoral turnovers lead to improvements in governance, economic performance, and other measures of national performance over the subsequent years. These findings suggest that turnovers play a positive role by bringing in new leaders with better incentives to deliver tangible benefits for the electorate.
Has the peak of container shipping’s epic boom already passed? Another quarter, another earnings record for Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, the world’s fifth-largest container line operator. But the focus now is less about what happened a few months ago and more about what’s happening now with China lockdowns and consumer demand, and what’s around the corner for supply chains and ocean freight rates. The implied message of Hapag-Lloyd quarterly release and conference call was: The container boom peaked in the first quarter; it’s downhill from here. Spot rates are falling. Goods demand is falling. “There have been signs that the market has passed its peak [in Q2 2022],” acknowledged CEO Rolf Habben Jansen in the earnings release. The second quarter is shaping up better than expected but “should be somewhere slightly south of Q1,” said CFO Mark Frese during the call. In Q3 and Q4, Hapag-Lloyd sees things going a lot more than “slightly south.” Its guidance implies a 50% drop in second-half earnings versus the first half. “For spot rates, there are regional differences,” Frese said, noting that North America’s import demand is holding up better than Europe’s. “But overall, the trend is the same: We are seeing a softening of spot rates nearly globally.” He added that he was not referring to indexes, but rather, to “what we are seeing from what’s incoming [to Hapag-Lloyd’s booking system] right now.” “Consumer sentiment is changing over time. Consumer behavior is changing. Inflation is going up. Disposable income is pressured,” he said. “We see volume growth lower than previously expected due to … consumer sentiment. We all feel it.” A seeming paradox is that port congestion remains very high globally even as spot rates are under pressure. Frese said that the Ukraine-Russia war and the China COVID lockdowns have made supply chain disruptions even worse. Congestion historically drives spot rates higher by reducing effective transport supply. However, there can be a transitional period when spot rates go down even as congestion remains high, as consumer demand falls prior to the clearing of congestion. (After congestion clears, more vessel supply is released into the market, accelerating spot-rate declines.) Frese noted that rates are particularly weak out of China, where Hapag-Lloyd sees lockdowns currently reducing outbound volumes by 20%-25%. But he said that COVID-driven export snags in China are coinciding with declines in import demand in places such as Europe. Frese said he expected spot rates to come down “even if congestion stays at the [current] level or even if there are new reasons [for congestion], due to the overall sentiment we are seeing right now that demand is softening.” When China reopens and delayed exports makes their way into the supply chain, some market watchers expect a surge in queues of ships waiting off U.S. ports. In this scenario, extreme congestion conditions return in the second half as the wave of delayed China cargo coincides with traditional peak-season flows. Asked about this possibility, the Hapag-Lloyd CFO answered: “Could we see a rebound out of China after China opens and everything is normal? Yes and no. Yes, when China reopens again there will be some rebound. But overall, we have to accept that demand is going down over time.” In other words, falling demand could offset some of the gains from China’s reopening and peak season.
Soaring food prices threaten workers with food insecurity and starvation - Around the world, in developing and so-called advanced countries alike, millions are facing food insecurity and hunger amid soaring prices and shortages of food. Last month, the World Bank estimated that food prices will increase by 22.9 percent this year, driven largely by a spike in global wheat prices. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of food commodities such as sugar, dairy, cereal and vegetable oil, is nearly 30 percent higher than in April 2021. In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that overall food prices rose 9.5 percent last month, and meat costs are 20 percent higher than in 2021. As inflation continues to rise, workers’ wages are failing to keep pace. Calculations by Business Insider last week found that when factoring in inflation, “real wage growth” for workers in the US in the information technology, utilities, financial activities, mining and logging, manufacturing, construction, education and retail trade sectors decreased from January 2021 through April 2022. Most industries, including trade, manufacturing and construction, saw a decline between three and four percent.As real wages decline for millions of workers throughout the world, the over 40 percent increase in wheat prices this year has already led to a substantial increase in global hunger. A report released last week by the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP), titled “A hunger catastrophe,” estimated that 811 million people around the world, or one-seventh of humanity, face “food insecurity” and “go to bed hungry” every night.The same report noted that the number of people suffering from “acute food insecurity has more than doubled,” from 135 million in 2019 to 276 million last year, to an estimated 323 million this year. An estimated 48.9 million people are “currently on the very edge of famine” and at risk of “starvation.”This “seismic hunger crisis,” the report notes, was driven by four factors: war, ongoing crop failures due to the effects of climate change, “economic consequences” from the COVID-19 pandemic, and the overall increased cost of food. The WFP remarked that the organization paid 30 percent more in 2022 for the same food products than it paid in 2019.The increase in food prices led UNICEF on Tuesday to release an emergency “child alert,” warning that without emergency funding, 600,000 children are at immediate risk of “severe acute malnutrition.” The report revealed that this leading cause of preventable death in children, also known as “severe wasting,” has increased “by more than 40 percent” since 2016.In a statement accompanying the report, UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell wrote, “The world is rapidly becoming a virtual tinderbox of preventable child deaths and child suffering from wasting.” According to UNICEF/WHO/World Bank statistics, India leads the world in children affected by severe wasting, with over 5.7 million children under the age of five suffering from severe malnutrition.
UK inflation jumps to 40-year high of 9% as food and energy prices spiral - U.K. inflation soared to a 40-year high of 9% in April as food and energy prices spiraled, official figures revealed Wednesday, escalating the country's cost-of-living crisis. Consumer prices rose by 2.5% month-on-month, fractionally below expectations for a 2.6% climb in a Reuters poll of economists, which had also projected a 9.1% annual increase. The 9% rise in the consumer price index is the highest since records began in their current form in 1989, outstripping the 8.4% annual rise posted in March 1992 and well ahead of the 7% seen in March of this year. The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics also said its estimates suggest that inflation would have last been higher "sometime around 1982." From April 1, the U.K. energy regulator increased the household energy price cap by 54% following a surge in wholesale energy prices, including a record rise in global gas prices. The regulator, Ofgem, has not ruled out further increases to the cap at its periodic reviews this year. The Bank of England has hiked interest rates at four consecutive meetings, raising the cost of borrowing from its historic pandemic-era low of 0.1% to a 13-year high of 1%, as it looks to rein in runaway inflation without stomping out economic growth. A recent survey showed that a quarter of Britons have resorted to skipping meals as inflationary pressures and a food crisis conflate in what Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has dubbed an "apocalyptic" outlook for consumers. VIDEO02:56 Wednesday's mammoth inflation print delivers another "hammer blow" to households already worried about the cost of living, and there are warnings that the worst is yet to come. "Unlike in the U.S., U.K. inflation continues to rise for the time being, stoking further fears around the cost of living," said Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, in a research note. "It will also add to the pressure on the Bank of England to increase interest rates and get to grips with soaring prices even if, as they admit themselves, many of the factors driving inflation are beyond their control."
Inflation surge past 11 percent in UK a disaster for millions -- In speeches to Parliament and big business, UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak confirmed that no measures will be taken to stop millions being hammered by a never-ending surge in the cost of living. “Families up and down the country are being hit hard by the rise in prices of fuel, of food and of heating.” But, he added, “There is no measure any government can take and no law we can pass that can make these global forces disappear overnight.” Sunak spoke just 24 hours before the latest inflation surge was announced, with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure to April increasing 2 points (7 percent to 9 percent) to a 40-year high. The more accurate Retail Prices Index measure, which includes housing costs, shot up into double digits from 9 percent to 11.1 percent. This is a devastating blow for workers whose wages and welfare benefits lag far behind both inflation measures. Speaking to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Wednesday, Sunak declared, “The Bank of England now expect inflation to peak at 10% later this year.” The reality is that inflation is headed far higher. Sky News economics and data editor Dan Conway commented that “what we're facing now is a very broad-based inflation… producer price inflation, which measures those costs manufacturers face, rose from an annual rate of 11.9 percent in March to a whopping 14 percent in April. In short, it's clear that this period of high prices isn't coming to an end any time soon.” Numerous reports attest to acute social distress, including millions of people suffering soaring levels of hunger. This week Sky News published a survey showing that 27 percent of Britons aged 16-75 “skipped meals” in April. Sixty-five percent sought to reduce costs by not turning on their heating. Research cited this week by the Labour Party found that 250,000 families, including 500,000 children will be plunged into absolute poverty over the next year. Even prior to the pandemic which massively accelerated the social crisis, 14.5 million people, more than one in five of the UK population, were already in poverty.
No comments:
Post a Comment