Soaring US inflation puts pressure on Fed to abandon guidance again -The Federal Reserve is under pressure to abandon its monetary policy guidance for the second month in a row in the face of soaring inflation, as market participants increasingly bet the US central bank will raise interest rates by a full percentage point at the end of the month.Consumer prices across most goods and services rose again in June at a speed that pushed the annual increase to 9.1 per cent, the biggest jump since November 1981.The advance surpassed even the most aggressive forecast by economists and was yet another unwelcome development for a central bank that has emphasised its “unconditional” commitment to tackling high prices — even at the expense of the economic recovery.It also threatens to further muddy the Fed’s communications with investors, given that policymakers have sent clear signals to markets that they intend to raise interest rates by 0.5 or 0.75 percentage points at their next meeting, which concludes on July 27.But following June’s inflation report, economists now expect the Fed to implement a 0.75 percentage point increase at the bare minimum, and traders in federal funds futures contracts put the odds of a full percentage point increase at more than half, according to CME Group.“The mistake they have been making and maybe they’ve learned from is tying their hands and saying we won’t hike more than 25, 50 or 75 basis points,” said Diana Amoa, one of the chief investment officers at Kirkoswald, a hedge fund.“If you are indeed data dependent, then you need to leave the optionality to be able to pivot whichever way the data is pointing,” she added. “What the data is saying is the Fed is only at the early stages of trying to tackle this inflation overshoot.” As such, Amoa said a full percentage point rate rise at the end of the month is the “right thing” for the Fed to do.If the Fed does opt for a larger rate increase it would hearken back to the drama surrounding last month’s meeting, when the central bank abruptly abandoned its heavily signalled plans for a half-point rate rise in the days leading up to the announcement. Instead, it implemented the first 0.75 percentage points increase since 1994 after worse than expected inflation data.Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, on Wednesday raised fears of a rerun of that episode when he responded to a question about a full percentage point increase by saying “everything is in play” following the “concerning” inflation report.In an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland branch and a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee, declined to rule out a 1 percentage point rise.“We don’t have to make that decision today,” she said, noting that the appropriate increase would be discussed at the upcoming meeting and there were still data to be released before then.However, she said that June’s “uniformly bad” inflation report did not point to a rate rise of less than 0.75 percentage points. Tim Duy, chief US economist at SGH Macro Advisors, said: “The Fed has put itself in a position where to maintain credibility on its intention to restore price stability it almost needs to find a way to escalate with each new bad inflation number.”
Hot inflation fuels bets on Fed delivering super-sized interest-rate hike - Investors sharply boosted bets on Wednesday the US Federal Reserve could deliver an even bigger interest-rate hike at its policy meeting later this month than previously expected after a mostly grim inflation report showed price pressures, already running at a 40-year high, accelerating further. A bevy of central bankers over the past couple of weeks have already signalled support for a 75 basis point rate increase at their upcoming policy meeting on July 26-27, following a similar-size hike at their last meeting in June. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 9.1% last month from a year earlier, data from the Labor Department showed on Wednesday, driven by rising costs for gas, food and rent. As a result, traders of futures tied to the Fed's policy rate have currently priced a 60% probability of a super-sized 100-basis-point rise at the coming meeting, according to an analysis of fed funds futures contracts compiled by the CME Group. That was up from about a one-in-nine chance seen before the report, which also showed underlying inflation slowing. But even the slight easing of so-called core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, to 5.9% in the 12 months through June from 6.0% in May, was less than economists expected. More worryingly, on a monthly basis, core CPI climbed 0.7% after advancing 0.6% in May, to its highest reading in a year. Neither gauge offers comfortable reading for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has placed a premium on so-called headline inflation slowing given the outsized impact the cost of gas and food has on typical American households. Those price pressures are fueling concern that if the Fed does not begin to get inflation in check soon, business and consumer expectations of a torrid rate of future price increases could become entrenched, forcing the Fed to move even more aggressively.
Fed Swaps Price In One-in-Three Chance of Full Point July Interest-Rate Hike – Bloomberg - Swap markets show traders are now pricing in a significant possibility that the Federal Reserve will implement a 100-basis-point hike in July in the wake of hotter-than-anticipated inflation data. The rate on the July contract rose as high as 2.416% after the consumer-price inflation data, some 83.6 basis points above the current effective fed funds rate. That implies a hike of at least 75 basis points is seen as definite and around a one-in-three chance that it could be a full percentage point. The market had already shifted earlier in the day to fully price in a 75-basis-point increase.
Bonds Slump as Inflation Surge Fuels Bets on 100-Basis-Point Fed Rate Hike - -- US Treasury yields jumped led by short-dated tenors as another hotter-than-expected inflation report kindled bets that the Federal Reserve could raise rates by a full percentage point this month. Two-year note yields, already higher than 10-year yields on the view that Fed rate hikes could tank the economy, pulled further away, inverting that segment of the yield curve by as much as 16 basis points, the most since 2007. The Consumer Price Index rose 9.1% from a year earlier, the largest gain since 1981, Labor Department data showed. The inflation gauge increased 1.3% during the month, the most since 2005, reflecting higher gasoline, shelter and food costs. Economists projected a 1.1% monthly increase and an 8.8% year-on-year change, based on the Bloomberg survey medians. “The headline data is going to be extremely problematic for the Fed messaging and is going to linger for an extended period,” said David Robin, a strategist at TJM Institutional Services. “A 75-basis-point hike is certain in July and now 75 basis points again becomes an increased certainty in September as the Fed falls further and further behind the curve.” The Fed raised its policy rate by 75 basis points in June, the biggest increase since 1994. Another three-quarter-point increase in July was already priced into swap contracts before the CPI data; afterward, the contracts priced in about a one-in-three chance of a 100-basis-point hike. Two-year yields climbed as much as 16 basis points to about 3.21%, while 10-year yields rose nearly 10 basis points to 3.07%. Yield curve inversions are regarded as a harbinger of economic weakness that could eventually result in rate cuts.
The Fed Fell Behind the Curve by Not Following its Own Policy Rules - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC or Committee) raised the target range for the federal funds rate (FFR) by 3/4 percent (75 basis points) from 0.75 – 1.0 percent to 1.5 – 1.75 percent at its June 2022 meeting and projected a range between 3.25 and 3.5 percent by the end of 2022. While the statement “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” Chair Powell’s press conference, the minutes, subsequent remarks by FOMC members and the most recent inflation data make it clear that another 75 or even 100 basis point increase in July is virtually certain. While there is widespread agreement that the Fed fell “behind the curve” by not raising rates quickly enough when inflation rose in 2021, there are two very different leading explanations. The “we didn’t know” explanation, advanced by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other members of the FOMC, is that the Fed did not realize that inflation would rise so much in 2021 and, if they had, they would have raised rates in fall 2021 instead of spring 2022. The “they should have known” explanation, advanced most prominently by Larry Summers, is that the Fed should have known that inflation would rise and raised rates sooner.Much of the discussion of the Fed being behind the curve depends on subjective analysis of when liftoff from the ELB should have occurred. In a new version of a paper that includes the June 2022 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), “Policy Rules and Forward Guidance Following the Covid-19 Recession,” we use data from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from September 2020 to June 2022 to compare policy rule prescriptions with actual and FOMC projections of the FFR. This provides a precise definition of “behind the curve” as the difference between the FFR prescribed by the policy rule and the actual FFR.The FOMC adopted a far-reaching Revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy in August 2020. The framework contains two major changes from the original 2012 statement. First, policy decisions will attempt to mitigate shortfalls, rather than deviations, of employment from its maximum level. Second, the FOMC will implement Flexible Average Inflation Targeting where, “following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.”At its September 2020 meeting, the Committee approved outcome-based forward guidance, saying that it expected to maintain the target range of the FFR at the ELB “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessment of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” If the Fed had followed a policy rule using inflation and unemployment data from the FOMC’s quarterly SEP’s instead of the FOMC’s forward guidance, they could have avoided the pattern of falling behind the curve, pivot, and getting back on track that characterized Fed policy during 2021 and 2022. The rules prescribe liftoff from the ELB in 2021:Q2 or 2021:Q3 and a much smoother path of rate increases through the end of 2022 than that adopted/projected by the FOMC. Since the rules use data from the SEP rather than inflation and unemployment expectations, it makes the “we didn’t know” explanation irrelevant and the “they should have known” explanation unnecessary.
Rampant inflation is a chance to retake power from the Fed - Pound for pound, President Biden has raised taxes for middle-class Americans more than any president in recent decades. The rates largely have stayed the same, but between deficit spending and policy at the Federal Reserve, Washington has created a massive hidden tax through rampant inflation. The high prices you find at the supermarket, gas station and online in large part can be attributed to the accumulation of the Federal Reserve’s power and influence. Since 2008, the Fed has grown to the power of a new branch of government — one that is both unelected and poorly managed. Reckless monetary policy has given us the worst inflation in 40 years, and likely a looming recession. The Federal Reserve has accumulated immense powers since its inception in 1913. A response to economic panics, the national bank could allow for a chance to stabilize interest rates and provide assets for banks. However, the Fed’s failures in 1929, the 1970s, 2008 and 2022 show why our third national bank should go the way of the first two. Instead, following every major monetary failure since the Great Depression, the Fed has only grown in size and importance. The Fed offers a convenient avenue for politicians. Its massive overprinting of funds and acquisition of assets enables the worst in our modern fiscal policy by allowing deficit spending on massive levels. Politicians in both parties have utilized the Fed in a way it was not intended: as a fourth branch of government that could circumvent normal budgetary processes and offer quick, seemingly painless solutions. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the overall money supply circulating through the economy has increased by 40 percent. During the same time period, the overall dollars increased from just under $15.5 trillion to about $22 trillion, while the total assets held by the Fed more than doubled from $4.2 trillion to more than $9 trillion. This is 10 times the pre-2008 level of holdings and more than quadruple the level during the start of the Great Recession. Meanwhile, Congress operated with a massive $3.1 trillion budget deficit in 2021. All these factors, notwithstanding supply chain and international factors, drove up inflation to near Carter administration-level heights. The asset purchases of the past two and a half years betray the original purpose of the country’s central bank. Rather than allowing for the printing of physical dollars (which is risky enough) and the setting of interest rates, the Fed is a behemoth that holds assets valued at nearly half the national economy. It doesn’t have a budget set by Congress and makes decisions formally separate from our elected leaders. This quasi-governmental role allows it to act as a tool for politicians to expand government, via deficit spending with printed dollars, while sidestepping traditional processes. Congress didn’t approve the major stimulus of purchasing bonds and other assets by the central bank but happily spent from the money it created. For years this system has allowed for massive federal spending binges and borrowing “in house,” while even offering a small surplus returned to the federal budget. Since 2020, the Fed sought to avert a depression but instead may have given us the “perfect storm” to enter in one. To prevent worsening inflation and teetering economic numbers, there is a desperate need for drastic reform. The current moment is an opportunity to solve one of the key drivers of global economic decline. While the political odds of completely repealing the 1913 Federal Reserve Act is effectively zero, a GOP-led White House and Congress could craft significant oversights over the institution. The last time the topic of auditing the Fed was broached in a public poll, more than 80 percent of Americans backed the idea. Other reforms should be implemented to avoid future abuses of the Fed, including limiting asset purchases or holding the current Federal Reserve Governors accountable during their affixed terms.
The Fed may be its own biggest financial stability risk --When Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell describes the central bank’s approach to raising interest rates to tame inflation, he seems to return again and again to the same word: “expeditiously.” But as the central bank is laser focused on fulfilling its mission to maintain price stability, it could risk running afoul of one of its implied duties: maintaining financial stability. The Fed is ahead of its own anticipated rate hike schedule outlined in March, when it expected a rapid-fire string of 25-basis-point bumps. But in just four months, the central bank increased its interest rate benchmark by 1.25 percentage points, leading economists, policy experts and even a Reserve Bank president to worry about unintended consequences. “If the tightening continues to be an upward surprise, which it has been, and it's happening in circumstances where the economy is weakening, then the restrictive effect of that financial condition tightening could be magnified,” said Derek Tang, co-founder and managing partner of the think tank Monetary Policy Analytics. “They're looking at the potential spillover to other markets, emanating out from the policy rate to Treasuries and then along the risk spectrum for things like corporate and sovereign debt.” Last month, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee increased the federal funds rate by 0.75 of a percentage point, the sharpest hike since 1994. Between a strong jobs report released last week and revised consumer price index numbers showing inflation remaining strong, the prospect of a similar rate hike later this month is a near-certainty. Fed. Governor Christopher Waller, Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester and Saint Louis Fed President James Bullard, all of whom are voting members on the FOMC, have endorsed a hike of 75 basis points during the July 26-27 meeting. The FOMC has not raised interest rates by more than 50 basis points in consecutive meetings since the 1980s. Some economists worry the Fed’s accelerated tightening could disrupt financial markets and have broad ripple effects. “There can be consequences of quickly tightening monetary policy,” said Komal Sri-Kumar, a senior fellow at the Milken Institute and owner of his own macroeconomic consulting firm. “There could be a credit event that causes the Fed to throw every other principle out the window to protect financial stability.” The last time the Fed implemented a 75-basis-point increase — part of the push, under the leadership of then-Chair Alan Greenspan, to double the interest rate from 3% to 6% between 1994 and 1995 — there were global consequences, Sri-Kumar said. The rapid shift led to a massive selloff in the U.S. bond market in 1994 and likely contributed to sovereign debt crises in Mexico, Japan and Russia in the following years, he said. The implications of the Asian and Russian crises reverberated back to the U.S. when the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, which was heavily exposed to sovereign debt and currency in the two regions, collapsed in 1998. The Fed brokered a deal between LTCM and 14 banks that year for a $3.6 billion recapitalization, effectively bailing out the hedge fund. While such large-scale calamities take years to play out, Peter Earle, an economist at the American Institute for Economic Research, said other effects manifest more quickly. Sudden changes in interest rates can impact the ability of borrowers to service their debts or cause banks to alter their balance sheet to meet capital requirements.
Democrats urge Fed to toughen investment rules for senior officials --Democratic senators are urging the Federal Reserve Board to strengthen its ethics policies and bring more oversight to the actions of its regional reserve bank leaders.In a letter sent to Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, chair of the Senate Banking Committee, and four other senators urged the central bank to strengthen a recently adopted policy on investments and securities trades by senior officials within the Federal Reserve System.The senators, including Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Jeff Merkley of Oregon, as well as Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, both of Georgia, called for the Fed to add “real teeth” to the directive, which further limits the type of trading activity allowed by Fed officials and their family members.The senators criticized the policy, which was implemented this past February, for failing to establish “standards for disciplinary action, financial penalties, or other meaningful consequences for violations.” They also expressed concerns that the new guidelines applied only to officials who work for the board in Washington and not the 12 reserve banks throughout the country.“We urge the Federal Reserve to establish penalties or other consequences for violation of this policy, increase accountability in the structure of the program, and implement the code of conduct so that these rules have the force of law,” the senators wrote.The policy change in question stems from a trading scandal involving the former heads of the reserve banks of Boston and Dallas. Both men left office amid controversy over trades executed in 2020 as the Fed was adjusting monetary policy to support the economy during the early stages of the pandemic.The Fed’s Office of the Inspector General is looking into the trades made by the officials, and several members of Congress have called for the Fed to release more information about the trades made along with the internal handling of the matter. Former Vice Chair Richard Clarida was also implicated for trades made around the same period but was cleared by the inspector general this week.
3Y Treasury Auction Finds Solid Demand Thanks To Highest Yield Since 2007 - To find the last time the US 3 Year Treasury auction priced above 3.0%, one has to go back all the way to May 2007, because not even during the Lehman turmoil in 2008 or the Fed policy error of Nov and Dec 2018 did 3Y yields rise this high. We bring this up because moments ago the Treasury sold $43 billion in 3Y notes at a high yield of 3.093%, up from 2.927% in June and the highest in 15 years. Perhaps it was the surge in yields (because it certainly wasn't the concession in today's trade which has seen yields slide across the curve), the prompted a spike in demand by buyers, and is why after last month's 1 basis point tail, today's auction stopped through the When Issued 3.098% by 0.5bps.The bid to cover of 2.428 dipped modestly from 2.453 last month and was the lowest since March (and below the 2.473 six-auction average), a mediocre result.The internals were stronger: Indirects took down 60.4%, above June's 51.5% and above the recent average of 58.7%. And with Directs taking down 19.4%, down from the near-record 23.6% last month, meant Dealers were left holding 20.3% of the auction, down from last month's 24.9%, and also below the recent average of 23.9%.Overall, a solid auction which found enough buyside demand largely thanks to the highest yield in 15 years. Heading into the auction, yields initially dipped the bounced, only to stabilize not too far from where they were supposed to be.
Q2 GDP Forecasts: Slightly Negative --Note: We've seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP before without a recession (that isn't the definition). If Q2 is negative, it will mostly be due to inventory and trade issues. No worries. My view is the US economy is not currently in a recession. From BofA: Incoming data pushed our tracking estimate for 2Q growth lower by 0.3pp to -1.4% qoq saar[July 15 estimate]. From Goldman: We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.7% (qoq ar). [July 15 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.5 percent on July 15, down from -1.2 percent on July 8. [July 15 estimate]
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-July - by Menzie Chinn -Industrial production and manufacturing production both came under Bloomberg consensus (-0.2% m/m vs. +0.1, -0.5% vs. +0.1, respectively). With these data, we have this picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (7/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations. Given the rapid bounceback in all of these series, it’s getting a little difficult to see how things are evolving as we consider whether we are moving back into recession. Here I plot the last year’s worth of the data. Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2021M06=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (7/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.While some series look like they might have peaked in the past (manufacturing and trade industry sales, monthly GDP), others are clearly still rising (nonfarm payroll employment, NFP). NBER BCDC notes that of these series, a greater weight is put on NFP and personal income excluding current transfers. Both of these continue to rise, with NFP over 4% higher over the past year (in log terms). Industrial production has also risen over 4% over the past year, even if it has registered a decline over the past two months of data.In other news, retail sales exceeded consensus (1% vs 0.8%, versus -0.1% previous, m/m).As of today, GDPNow for Q2 is -1.5%, IHS Markit is -1.9%, Goldman Sachs tracking is +0.7. Today’s Wells Fargo forecast, +0.2, Deutsche Bank forecast as of today is -0.6%.
Nonresidential Fixed Investment and Prospects for GDP Outlook and Revisions by Menzie Chinn - One of the interesting aspects of the current recovery is the relative small rebound in nonresidential fixed investment. Figure 1: Non-intellectual property products nonresidential fixed investment share of nominal GDP (blue), and intellectual property products investment share of (tan), SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, author’s calculations. Notice that the drop in nonresidential investment was fairly small, and the bounceback relatively small. Perhaps what is more interesting is that the share of IP products investment has been increasing over time. And in terms of nominal GDP growth, IP products investment has grown in importance — pre-Covid-19. In Figure 2, I show the q/q changes, but the share of GDP impact shows the same pattern. Figure 2: Quarter-on-Quarter change in non-intellectual property products nonresidential fixed investment (blue), and intellectual property products investment (tan), SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, author’s calculations. Note that I have used the BEA aggregate series for IP products (the components are software, R&D, and entertainment, and literary originals) in these figures. Detail on the heterogeneity of the IP products investment is in Fixler and de Francisco (2022).Now, there are two implications to draw from this observation. The first relates to what the final Q1 and Q2 GDP numbers are likely to eventually look like. Investment in IP has been revised upwards substantially in certain cases.Figure 3: Intellectual property products investment from June 2019 release (blue), June 2020 (tan), June 2021 (green), and June 2022 (bold red), all in bn$, SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, author’s calculations. Not only is the who series shifted up with the benchmark revision reported in July 2021 (by about one-quarter of one percentage point of GDP), but — what is important for GDP growth rates — the changes in IP products investment are typically revised up. Hence, an additional point for my belief that GDP growth in 2022 is likely to be revised upward as the GDP data are benchmark revised.The second observation relates to the impact of tightening monetary policy. The view that intangible capital investment is less sensitive to interest rate changes (e.g., Crouzet and Eberly, 2019) implies that monetary policy might need to be tighter than otherwise in order to hit a given target reduction in aggregate demand.
Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of July 10th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 14.4% from the same day in 2019 (85.6% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019 - with some ups and downs, usually related to timing of holidays. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 7th. Movie ticket sales were at $206 million last week, down about 39% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through July 2nd. The occupancy rate was up 2.9% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is at the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of July 1st, gasoline supplied was down 0.8% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running somewhat below 2019 levels. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph shows weekly turnstile entries since 2015. Currently traffic is less than half of normal. This data is through Friday, July 8th.\
Yellen warns inflation in the U.S. is 'unacceptably high' -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that inflation in the U.S. is "unacceptably high" and said bringing down rising prices will be Washington's "top priority." Data released Wednesday showed U.S. consumer inflation rose to 9.1%, the highest level since 1981. "We're first and foremost supportive of the Fed's efforts; what they deem to be necessary to get inflation under control," she said at a news conference in Bali ahead of the Group of 20 finance ministers' meeting. "Beyond that, we are taking our own steps which we believe will be supportive in the short term to get inflation down — particularly what we're doing on energy prices and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve." "And also the work that we're doing to institute the price cap on Russian oil and to avoid potential future spikes in oil prices," she added. Almost half of the increase in prices in the latest inflation numbers came from high energy costs, Yellen added. Asked whether bringing down inflation was more important than the risk of a recession caused by higher interest rates and slowing growth, Yellen said she believed that it was appropriate the top priority should be to bring down inflation as the labor market is "currently very strong." Yellen said, however, that rising interest rates could have a spillover effect into other economies. A strong U.S. dollar would make other currencies comparatively weaker, but could also make their exports cheaper and more attractive. "On the one hand, it can strengthen their ability to export which is good for their growth. On the other hand, to the extent that countries have dollar-denominated debt, it can make those debt problems — which already are very severe — more difficult," she said.
House to vote on sweeping government funding bills next week - The House will vote next week on more than half a trillion dollars in proposed spending to keep the government running as leaders work to pass their annual funding bills before lawmakers are set for recess next month.The lower chamber is scheduled to take up six of its dozen annual spending bills next week to fund a list of agencies for fiscal 2023, including the departments of Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, Agriculture, Energy and Veterans Affairs as well as the Food and Drug Administration.A source familiar with the process told The Hill the measures will be “packaged as one bill — coming up for a floor vote on the same day.”It’s unclear when the remaining six bills will be brought up for a vote as leaders lock down timing, but House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said last month that the plan is to “put bills on the floor in July.”The legislation, which House negotiators spent the last few weeks marking up before sending out of committee, is expected to pass the Democratic-led House. However, the bills — approved largely along party lines in committee — will likely look different after House and Senate leaders hash out an overall compromise on fiscal 2023 funding in the months ahead. In a statement on Monday, House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) touted the bills as measures that would “help the middle class, working families, small businesses, and the vulnerable who work hard.”“We are committed to combating climate change, bolstering mental health services, supporting our Veterans, and building safer communities with less crime and violence and more security,” DeLauro said.However, the legislation has seen pushback from Republicans over costs and what they have called a “liberal wish list,” with a lack of parity in defense and nondefense spending.The Senate has yet to introduce any of its annual spending bills for fiscal 2023 as leaders struggle to come to an agreement on top-line numbers and defense spending, raising questions about when Congress will finish its messy appropriations work this year — if it does. If lawmakers are unable to pass their appropriations bills by the cutoff date in late September, when current government funding is set to lapse, Congress can pass a continuing resolution allowing the government to temporarily remain funded at the prior year’s fiscal levels to buy time for a deal.Last year, Congress passed three continuing resolutions to avert a shutdown before passing a $1.5 trillion spending omnibus package for fiscal 2022 in March.But lawmakers are facing more of a time crunch this year, particularly as the pivotal midterm races loom in November and as the upper chamber’s top two negotiators, Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Vice Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), prepare to retire.
Democrats see hope for spending deal with Manchin as Congress returns - Senate Democrats are redoubling their efforts to finalize a new spending package that could lower health-care costs and combat climate change, hoping to hammer out a long-elusive deal with Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) and bring it to the chamber floor later this month A new sense of optimism — and urgency — has set in among party lawmakers nearly seven months after their last attempt to pass a sweeping bill ended in stunning defeat. Piece by piece, Democratic leaders in recent days have started reconstructing their economic ambitions as they race to deliver on a staple element of President Biden’s agenda before the midterm elections in November.So far, top Democrats have worked out with Manchin new agreements that would cut drug costs for seniors, improve the financial health of Medicare and close a tax loophole that benefits the wealthy. They even have advanced talks around addressing the challenges posed by a faster-warming planet, raising the prospect that they can secure a limited initiative to penalize methane emissions.Those early agreements have set the stage for Senate Democrats to make an upbeat return to the Capitol on Monday. Manchin is expected to have his next private meeting with Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) early in the week, according to two people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the deliberations. They are set to discuss climate as Democrats try to bring one of their thorniest fights with the moderate West Virginian to an end.Plenty remains unresolved, including the fate of a key program that lowers insurance costs for millions of Americans, raising the prospect that the latest round of talks could collapse much as they did before. Adding to the challenge, Republicans have intensified their opposition in recent days, hoping to apply enough political pressure on Manchin that he walks away from the talks again. “To my friend Joe Manchin from West Virginia, whose vote is going to be necessary for this, I would remind him Joe Biden’s popularity in that state is as low as it is in Wyoming, only 17 percent,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), leader of the Senate Republican Conference, said during an interview on “Fox News Sunday.” He added that Manchin “shouldn’t walk the plank for Joe Biden” politically. Even if Manchin and members of his party manage to strike a deal, it is guaranteed to be far smaller than Democrats’ original, roughly $2 trillion package, known as the Build Back Better Act, which the senator scuttled last year. The cuts might have been unthinkable earlier in the debate, but many Democrats have come to acknowledge them as the costs of compromise — and feel more hopeful than ever that there is now a pathway to achieve it.
Schumer making last-ditch bid to pass reconciliation bill this summer - Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) is making a last-ditch effort to pass a budget reconciliation bill during the July and early August work period. Schumer and centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) have made progress on proposals to lower the cost of prescription drugs, extend Medicare’s solvency and raise taxes on some high-income earners. Manchin and Schumer have worked out a proposal to impose a 3.8 percent tax on individuals earning more than $400,000 and couples earning more than $500,000 from pass-through businesses and will give the legislative language to the Senate parliamentarian to review. The $203 billion raised would extend the solvency of Medicare’s hospital fund from 2028 to 2031. But several major issues remain unresolved. Sam Runyon, a spokesperson for Manchin, said her boss is glad that Democrats have agreed on a prescription drug proposal that they could pass with a simple-majority vote under special budget rules. “Sen. Manchin has long advocated for proposals that would lower prescription drug costs for seniors and his support for this proposal has never been in question. He’s glad that all 50 Democrats agree,” she said. But the Manchin aide waved off speculation that Schumer and Manchin are close to a deal on a broader reconciliation package that would include bold proposals to tackle global warming, a top priority of Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and other Senate Democrats. “Suggestions that a reconciliation deal is close are false. Senator Manchin still has serious unresolved concerns and there is a lot of work to be done before it’s conceivable that a deal can be reached he can sign onto,” she said. That means a budget reconciliation package isn’t likely to reach the Senate floor before that fourth week of the upcoming monthlong work period and Schumer may even keep his colleagues in town for the first week of the August recess, which is supposed to begin Aug. 6. Schumer wants to get an agreement as soon as possible but has been careful not to lay out a precise timeline for getting it passed. The budget reconciliation instructions will expire at the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30, which is the drop-dead deadline. “It looks like it’s a much more serious set of conversations than two weeks ago or two months ago. That’s really encouraging but until the bill is on the floor, it would be risky to put any odds on it,” said Josh Freed, senior vice president for the climate and energy program at Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank.
Republicans maneuver to thwart reconciliation - Republicans are trying to hobble negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, as the pair inch toward cementing a climate and social spending bill.Speaking on the Senate floor yesterday, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) intensified his threat to derail conference talks on a separate bipartisan innovation and economic competitiveness bill should Democrats move forward with a partisan reconciliation package (E&E Daily, July 1).He singled out Manchin’s home state, listing potential negative impacts for West Virginia from Medicare tax hikes and the proposed fee on methane emissions. McConnell called the methane fee “a giant new tax specifically on natural gas.”“This is what Democrats want to do in states like West Virginia? Giant tax hikes on small businesses and fossil fuels?” McConnell said. “It’s like they aren’t content watching recessionary warning signs, and they’re trying to make absolutely sure that we get a recession.” McConnell’s gambit comes as Democrats appear to be closing in on a reconciliation deal. Schumer last week sent an agreement on drug pricing policy to the Senate parliamentarian, the first concrete step forward since Manchin announced his opposition to the original “Build Back Better Act” last year (Greenwire, July 6).The GOP threat to sink the bipartisan innovation bill looms over negotiations. In the Senate, it is known as the “U.S. Innovation and Competition Act,” S. 1260. The House version is the “America COMPETES Act,” H.R. 4521.Both versions would approve billions for the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation. The legislation also seeks to bolster the U.S. semiconductor production.When asked whether McConnell’s threat could derail the effort, Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) responded: “That’s not the right question. The right question is, ‘How ridiculous is it to kill a bill that you say you like because of a different negotiation on a different thing?’ There’s just no way you can govern that way.”But other Republicans have aligned themselves with McConnell, arguing that reconciliation talks will suck up time this month that would otherwise be used to finalize the innovation and competition package.Senate Energy and Natural Resources ranking member John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) singled out Manchin over the weekend, urging him not to “walk the plank for Joe Biden.”Yesterday, Manchin said he was unmoved by the GOP blockade on the innovation bill, telling CNN that McConnell’s threats were “so wrong.”“I’m not walking away if anybody’s gonna threaten me or hold me hostage, if I can help the country,” he said. “And if they want to play politics and play party politics, shame on ‘em.”
Exelon, PG&E, PSEG and others call on Congress to pass 'ambitious' clean energy spending package -Major utilities, solar companies, storage developers and others have called on U.S. lawmakers to pass a reconciliation package that includes tax credits for wind, solar, and batteries, expanded efficiency incentives and support for clean transportation. Exelon Corp., Pacific Gas & Electric Corp., Public Service Enterprise Group and other companies are working to decarbonize but “corporate action alone is insufficient to meet the scope and scale of the climate crisis,” they said in a July 11 letter to Congressional leadership. Separately, more than 400 solar and storage companies organized by the Solar Energy Industries Association, known as SEIA, also advocated for a reconciliation package.Democrats failed to pass a $3.5 trillion spending bill last year, but negotiations have been revived and appear to be making progress. There is renewed hope for a smaller bill, E&E News reports , with up to $300 billion in clean energy investments. Additional revenues are needed for climate and clean energy investments, and the federal government must help, companies said in their letters to Congress. “Our companies are proactively shifting to clean energy and investing in energy efficiency,” the utilities said. “The federal government must reduce costs and climate-related risks across the economy and seize the economic opportunities in leading the world in clean energy innovation, manufacturing, and deployment.” Along with Exelon, PG&E and PSEG, the letter was also signed by Logitech, VF Corp., Levi Strauss & Co., and Danone North America, and was distributed by Ceres, a non-profit group focused on sustainability. Strong federal climate legislation is “critical,” Ceres Vice President of Government Relations Anne Kelly said in a statement. “For months, companies and investors have advocated for this legislation. Today, we are excited to see leading executives personally champion the ambitious investments we need,” Kelly said. The companies called for incentives for electric vehicles, energy efficiency and clean energy, investments to bolster domestic supply chains, and programs to address equity and improve resilience. “A reconciliation package that includes these investments and reduces the deficit will help us combat inflation and bend down the cost curve for consumers’ bottom lines right away,” the letter said.
The Coming Climate Bill Hinges on Two Big Questions - We are gathered here today to mourn Build Back Better, President Joe Biden’s overstuffed and too ambitious domestic-policy package.It had its flaws, of course. We all do. But I am not here to dwell upon any of those. I wish, instead, to speak only of BBB’s climate provisions, because, had the bill passed, it would have been the most aggressive action against climate change we have ever seen from Congress.Build Back Better would have prevented more than 5 billion tons of carbon pollution from entering the atmosphere, according to an analysis by a team of researchers led by Jesse Jenkins, a Princeton engineering professor. Those emissions reductions would have made up more than 90 percent of America’s commitment under the Paris Agreement, allowing the country to nearly cut its annual emissions in half, compared with their all-time high, by 2030. Yet it is no more. Build Back Better perished in December, the victim of a sneak attack by Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Congress is not going to pass it. Democrats who spent years salivating over a bill like Build Back Better should forget about it. It will never become law.I raise this morbid point because at some point in the next week or two, Senate Democrats are probably going to release a new reconciliation bill. This slimmed-down package is still largely a mystery, but it could include up to $300 billion for climate and energy provisions, according to NBC News. The working assumption is that the provisions, which might include clean-energy tax credits or manufacturing support, will resemble moderated—if not Manchin-ified—versions of some key parts of Build Back Better. (There’s a reason that Senator Mitt Romney quipped that this new effort should be called “Build Back Manchin.”) And when this new package lands, many people will have the immediate urge to compare it to Build Back Better—to search for all the things that Build Back Better once did that this new bill will not. But at this point, the right comparison for a climate bill is not BBB—it’s nothing. So rather than holding up the bill to a dead policy, we should ask these two questions instead: Will this new bill reduce American emissions compared with doing nothing at all? And will it put the world closer to decarbonizing?
Three-week sprint: Dems eye deal on clean energy package - Congress returns this week with a narrow window to decide the fate of hundreds of billions in clean energy tax credits as advocates are urging Senate Democrats to find a compromise on a climate and social spending package. The stakes could not be higher. The month’s work period could represent the last, best chance, climate advocates say, for the United States to make meaningful investments in the technology needed to unleash a clean energy transition. The hope is that legislation would help achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. “There is no reason to believe that if we miss this opportunity, that we’ll have another one anytime soon,” warned John Coequyt, director of government affairs with energy and environment non-profit RMI. Missing this opportunity could could mean the loss of one of the largest-ever investments in carbon-reducing technologies. Republicans are widely expected to retake the House this fall, likely dooming any ambitious climate legislation. The consequences could be catastrophic, as greenhouse gases continue to warm the planet. “We don’t know what the future has in store for us legislatively in the next 10 years, but it’s reasonable to assume the next three weeks are certainly going to be some of the most important weeks of the coming decade for climate policy,” Coequyt added. All eyes have been on secretive negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y) and Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). It was Manchin, citing inflation and other concerns, who withdrew his support for the $1.7 trillion House-passed budget reconciliation bill in December. The duo appears to have found some success in resurrecting what had been known as “Build Back Better.” Schumer submitted last week a portion of the expected final package that would address prescription drug pricing for a so-called Byrd Rule review — the guidelines that govern what can and cannot be included in reconciliation. People familiar with the negotiations, who were granted anonymity to speak freely, confirmed to E&E News that the energy and climate portion of the deal has yet to be finalized. The expectation is that spending for the climate provisions is likely to hover around $300 billion. That total would align with the tax credit outline submitted by the Finance Committee for budget scoring late last year. Talks could be slowed this week. Last night Schumer’s office announced he had tested positive for Covid-19 and as a result will quarantine for the week.
White House eyes fossil fuel projects to win Manchin's climate support - The Washington Post - In the past week and a half, the White House has taken steps that would have been considered unimaginable when President Biden first took office, suggesting that it might suggesting that it might greenlight drilling plans in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico that would produce hundreds of millions more barrels of oil. t Despite violating the president’s climate pledges, officials have opened the door to these proposals as they wait to see if their approval could help finally secure Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Joe Manchin III’s (D-W.Va.) vote for a historic climate package stuck in Congress. Complicating their calculus is that White House aides do not even know if approving them — or Manchin’s other preferred energy projects, such as a pipeline in West Virginia — would bring the elusive senator on board. The difficult balancing act, described by four administration officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid jeopardizing a potential deal, is part of the White House’s last-ditch effort to salvage the chances of meeting Biden’s carbon emissions reduction targets with just months until the 2022 midterm elections. The fossil fuel projects may also prove crucial to Democrats’ broader economic package focused on energy, prescription drugs and taxes, since Manchin has so far balked at only approving the new clean energy tax credits that form the core of the party’s climate legislation. The uncertain fate of the climate bill — and Manchin’s vote — has driven the White House to postpone decisions on energy projects with significant environmental impacts, including the long-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline and future drilling plans in the Gulf of Mexico and on Alaska’s North Slope. Collectively, outside groups estimate these projects would generate anywhere between 680 million metric tons of carbon dioxide to up to six times that amount. Climate advocates argue that additional carbon pollution would undercut Biden’s pledge to reduce U.S. emissions by at least 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
Manchin, Playing to the Home Crowd, Is Fighting Electric Cars to the End - — Senator Joe Manchin III’s opposition to government incentives for electric vehicles is a sticking point in negotiations over President Biden’s tax and spending package — talks that appear to be coming to a head this week after months of fits and starts. Mr. Biden and most Senate Democrats want billions of dollars in tax credits for consumers who buy electric vehicles, which they see as key to fighting climate change. The transition away from polluting gas-powered cars and trucks is even more critical to the administration’s climate goals after a recent Supreme Court decision that curtailed the government’s authority to cut pollution from power plants. Mr. Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat who has taken more campaign contributions from oil, gas and coal companies than any other senator, has assailed the proposed tax credits, which would be worth up to $12,500 per vehicle, as unnecessary and wasteful. He has also expressed skepticism about increased government spending at a time of inflation. Mr. Manchin’s opposition to tax credits for electric vehicles mirrors that of the oil industry, which would be threatened by a wholesale shift away from gas-powered cars and trucks. The American Petroleum Institute, the fossil fuel industry’s lobbying arm, has warned against a “rushed E.V. transition,” saying government action to support electric vehicles could limit transportation choices for Americans and leave them “high and dry.” “Bottom line: efforts to subsidize E.V. adoption can be costly for taxpayers and consumers,” Mike Sommers, the group’s president, said last year. But a fast transition to electric vehicles is exactly what scientists say is needed to quickly and sharply cut the emissions that are dangerously heating the planet. Pollution from transportation is the leading source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Mr. Manchin has already succeeded in shrinking the proposed tax credits by about a third, deleting a $4,500 incentive for consumers who purchase union-made American cars, a measure opposed by Toyota Motor, which operates a nonunion plant in Mr. Manchin’s home state. In a statement, Toyota said that while it supported tax credits for consumers to speed the transition to electric cars, awarding a premium for union-made vehicles would be wrongheaded. “What does this say to the American autoworker who has decided not to join a union?” the company said. “It says that their work is worth $4,500 less because they made that choice. What does this say to the American consumer?”
Inflation report makes Manchin 'very cautious' on climate bill - West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin sounded a note of caution yesterday on reconciliation talks after another round of high inflation numbers, raising the prospect of a narrow package that only includes drug pricing provisions. “It depends on if we can look at things and find a pathway forward that’s not [inflationary],” Manchin told reporters. “We know what we can pass. It’s basically the drug pricing on Medicare.” He added: “Is there any more we can do? I don’t know. But I’m very, very cautious.” Advertisement The comments pointed to a possibility Manchin has floated before: dropping the clean energy and climate provisions from a potential party-line reconciliation bill (E&E Daily, May 26). The West Virginia Democrat is still negotiating that section of the potential bill with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). But he has raised various concerns about electric vehicle incentives and a direct pay option for clean energy tax credits. The reconciliation effort, namely the proposed suite of clean electricity tax credits, likely represents congressional Democrats’ last real chance to pass large-scale climate legislation in the near future and chip away at President Joe Biden’s emissions pledges. The GOP is favored to take back one or both chambers in the midterms. At the same time, Democrats are attempting to break a blockade from Senate Republicans on a separate competition and innovation bill. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) had said he’d sink the bipartisan effort if Democrats continued to pursue reconciliation, but his stance has since softened. The administration is now urging Democrats to break up the innovation bill. To date, Schumer and Manchin appear to have only fully agreed on the drug pricing aspect of the package, which Schumer sent to the parliamentarian for review last week. Manchin is also supportive of rolling back the 2017 GOP tax cuts, a priority he shares with many in his party.
Manchin pumps brakes: Bill ‘needs to be scrubbed much better’ - Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Wednesday pumped the brakes on negotiations with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) over a budget reconciliation bill, warning that it “needs to be scrubbed much better” after a new report showed that inflation hit 9.1 percent in June. Manchin told reporters Wednesday he’s not sure if he can agree to anything beyond the prescription drug reform component of the bill, which has already been sent to the Senate parliamentarian’s office and has the support of all 50 members of the Democratic caucus. “We know what we can pass is basically the drug pricing, OK, on Medicare,” he told reporters. “Is there any more we can do? I don’t know, but I am very, very cautious.” “And I’m going to make sure that I have every input on scrubbing everything humanly possible that could be considered inflammatory,” he said. He said that “deficit reduction is going to be 50 percent” of the new revenue gained from prescription drug savings and tax reforms, such as a 3.8 percent tax on wealthy individuals and couples who earn more than $400,000 or $500,000, respectively, from pass-through businesses. He said the latest inflation report showing prices have increased by 9.1 percent compared to a year ago means negotiators are going to have to slow down and proceed more cautiously on putting together the budget bill. “Basically, take your time and make sure we do it and do it right. We can’t afford mistakes in the highest inflation we’ve seen in the last 40 years,” he said. Manchin has pushed back against a goal set by other Democrats of passing the bill before the August recess, saying that he sees Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year, as the deadline. The Juneteenth Foundation hosts largest virtual DE&I career fair in the country Manchin, however, did not rule out including a provision to continue subsidies of health insurance plans provided under the Affordable Care Act, explaining that whether he could agree to extended subsidies would depend on how they are drafted and paid for.
Democrats race to prevent spike in health premiums amid record inflation - Roughly 13 million Americans could see their health insurance costs rise next year — and millions more may not have care at all — unless congressional Democrats can reach agreement over a critical portion of their long-stalled economic spending legislation. The uncertainty loomed over lawmakers as they huddled again this week in pursuit of a wide-ranging deal that can balance the promises they made during the last election with their need to win support from Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), the crucial swing vote in the narrowly divided chamber. But the problem took on new urgency on Wednesday, as Democrats grappled with the latest round of inflation data. Prices rose by more than 9 percent last month compared to a year earlier — a dour report that prompted the fiscally conscious Manchin to emphasize he would be “very, very cautious” as negotiations with party leaders continue. Democrats see hope for spending deal with Manchin as Congress returns The most urgent concern involves the fate of tax credits that help low- and middle-income Americans purchase health insurance annually. Unless Congress extends these subsidies, roughly 13 million people are set to see their monthly premiums spike in January, according to an estimate from Kaiser Family Foundation — in some cases by hundreds of dollars per person. Some Democrats also hope to offer new help to the roughly 2.2 million people, mostly women and people of color, who find themselves in an even tougher financial bind: They’re too poor to qualify for federal aid yet unable to enroll in Medicaid because they live in 12 states where Republican leaders have refused to expand program eligibility. Democrats initially sought to address both matters as part of the roughly $2 trillion Build Back Better Act that President Biden endorsed, and House lawmakers adopted, at the end of last year. In the Senate, however, Manchin opposed that broader package largely out of fiscal concerns. Some of his trepidation extended to some of his party’s proposed health care spending, raising questions as to how far Democrats might have to scale back their ambitions to win his must-have support. On Wednesday, Manchin signaled some openness to extending subsidies that help cover premium costs. But he said his support “depends” on whether lawmakers can find “a pathway forward that’s not inflammatory,” referring to inflation, at a time when prices of gas, groceries and rents are spiking at their highest clip in roughly 40 years.
Manchin says he won’t support new climate spending or tax hikes on wealthy - Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) told Democratic leaders on Thursday he would not support an economic package that contains new spending on climate change or includes new tax increases targeting wealthy Americans or corporations, marking a massive setback for party lawmakers who had hoped to advance a central element of their agenda before the midterm elections this fall. The major shift in negotiations — confirmed by two people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity to describe the talks — threatens to upend the delicate process to adopt the party’s signature legislation seven months after Manchin scuttled the original, roughly $2 trillion Build Back Better Act, which President Biden had endorsed. But Manchin did tell Democratic leaders he was open to reforming federal laws that might lower prescription drugs costs for seniors, the two people said. And the West Virginia moderate expressed support with Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), the party’s chief negotiator, for extended subsidies that help keep health insurance costs down for millions of Americans for the next two years, one of the sources said. A spokesman for Schumer declined comment. A spokeswoman for Manchin said nothing had been agreed to at any point in the discussions, but declined to discuss details of the talks. The stunning setback late Thursday came despite weeks of seemingly promising negotiations between Schumer and Manchin in pursuit of a broader deal that would deliver on the very promises that secured Democrats both chambers of Congress and the White House in 2020. On climate, Democrats had once hoped to radically transform the country, reduce pollution, incentivize cleaner, greener energy and put more electric vehicles on the road. Manchin, who represents coal-heavy West Virginia, often opposed their most audacious plans — but until Thursday, he had seemed open to some limited changes to combat global warming. On taxes, meanwhile, Manchin only days ago had signed onto one of many Democrat-backed plans to raise more revenue from the wealthiest taxpayers, including a policy that would have helped extend the financial solvency of Medicare by closing a loophole that allows high earners to shelter income, one of the people familiar with the matter said. But the senator ultimately appeared to change course, and newly expressed resistance to some of the party’s other plans targeting wealthy individuals and corporations, the source added. The situation leaves Democrats in a difficult political bind — left to decide between pressing Manchin after Thursday’s reversal or accepting what would still be significant changes to the law lowering healthcare costs for millions of Americans. Manchin has long expressed concern that his party’s proposals could add to the deficit and worsen inflation, a position he reiterated on Wednesday after new data affirmed that prices are rising at the fastest clip in four decades.
Manchin kills climate deal - West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin today killed any chance of new climate spending as part of a budget reconciliation package this month, according to a Democrat briefed on the matter. Manchin’s declaration to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), first reported by The Washington Post, almost certainly puts to rest any chance of passing major climate legislation this Congress. Manchin told Schumer “unequivocally” that he would not support any new spending on climate action under the budget reconciliation package under discussion. Negotiations to this point had focused on approving more than $300 billion in clean energy tax credits, a record amount of spending for climate action. The West Virginia Democrat said he could support a limited reconciliation package that exclusively focused on prescription drug pricing and a two-year extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies. Manchin hinted earlier this week that new inflation numbers gave him pause about new spending. Spokeswoman Sam Runyon said in a statement, “Political headlines are of no value to the millions of Americans struggling to afford groceries and gas as inflation soars to 9.1 percent. Senator Manchin believes it’s time for leaders to put political agendas aside, reevaluate and adjust to the economic realities the country faces to avoid taking steps that add fuel to the inflation fire.”
Fury from Dems, greens after Manchin blocks climate bill - Environmentalists and progressives raged last night after West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin killed the clean energy provisions of Democrats’ reconciliation bill, snuffing out nearly a year of negotiations and the first major attempt to legislate on climate change in over a decade. Manchin told Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) yesterday he “unequivocally” wouldn’t support a reconciliation measure that includes climate and clean energy provisions, according to a Democrat briefed on the conversation. The move almost certainly quashes the prospects for major climate legislation this Congress. With Republicans favored to take back at least one chamber in this year’s midterms, it could mean climate advocates will have to wait years to advance the kind of large-scale, emissions-slashing policies that were being negotiated as part of the reconciliation package. “I’m not going to sugar coat my disappointment here, especially since nearly all issues in the climate and energy space had been resolved,” Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said in a statement. “This is our last chance to prevent the most catastrophic — and costly — effects of climate change.” It’s a massive setback for Democrats politically and a blow to the nation’s climate goals. President Joe Biden had pledged to decarbonize the power sector by 2035 and halve emissions by 2030. The $300 billion suite of clean energy tax credits that was in play during the current round of negotiations would have gone a long way toward those targets. Scientists say the world needs to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Biden admin pushes slimmed-down innovation bill - Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo urged a bipartisan Senate briefing yesterday to finish work on a stalled innovation and economic competitiveness package before the August recess. So much so, the Biden administration’s point person on the negotiations said, that the administration is willing to back a slimmer version of the package to ensure that $52 billion to help semiconductor manufacturing passes before chip companies start looking elsewhere for incentives. “They have to be done before they go home for their summer break,” Raimondo told a gaggle of reporters following the classified briefing. Raimondo indicated that the urgency of the need to address semiconductors has lawmakers and Biden officials willing to drop the more contentious and ambitious issues of the bill and move only the consensus items to meet the August deadline. “What I can say is it seems to be talking to senators and talking to members of the House that they’re coalescing around a CHIPS-plus kind of a bill,” Raimondo said. “And if that were to happen, we will be very supportive.” The message from the administration comes as work on House-Senate conference negotiations reached an impasse this month as Senate Republicans, led by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), threatened to derail any potential bipartisan deal should Democrats continue their pursuit of a separate reconciliation package focused on prescription drugs and clean energy. Republicans later backtracked off the full-throated threat of derailment earlier this week by suggesting the House could simply pass the Senate version of the bill or both chambers could vote to move a measure to fund the semiconducter portion of the bill. House Democrats, however, are balking at the Republican push and are instead insisting they want a compromise on the legislation that would also provide tens of billions for the Department of Energy and National Science Foundation. The House bill, H.R. 4521, the “America COMPETES Act,” would provide about $120 billion for DOE and NSF or developing technologies seen as crucial to the 21st-century economy. The Senate version, S. 1260, the “U.S. Innovation and Competition Act,” would direct $17 billion for DOE and close to $100 billion for the NSF (E&E Daily, June 14).
Innovation bill drama imperils billions for DOE, science -- House and Senate lawmakers are coalescing around a slimmed-down version of the innovation and economic competitiveness package that has stalled in cross-chamber negotiations. There is broad agreement that $52 billion in spending to help bolster the domestic semiconductor manufacturing industry should make up the base of the measure. Adding to the “Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) for America Act” has been dubbed the “CHIPS-plus.” But lawmakers are not yet clear what the full package should look like. And that uncertainty leaves tens of billions in authorization spending for the Department of Energy and National Science Foundation up in the air. “People are just trying to figure out how to proceed,” Senate Commerce Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) told reporters yesterday. “Obviously, they’re looking at the calendar and they’re looking at what needs to happen.” Those details along with divisions over when to schedule a vote on the package has lawmakers scrambling to meet the Biden administration’s deadline to pass a bill ahead of a lengthy summer recess. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said as much in a pair of briefings this week, where she urged lawmakers to prioritize the semiconductor spending to ensure the nation does not lose out to other nations looking to site manufacturing facilities within their borders. The Pentagon threw its hat in the ring yesterday. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin cited $150 billion in investments by China in urging passage of the semiconductor language. In a statement, he said the bill “directly supports our national defense” and is “critical to our national security.” House leadership appears to have gotten the message, although Democrats are insisting that any measure should include House-backed research and development reauthorization provisions. “That’s what we’re more interested in,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told reporters about her preference to advance a multi-faceted CHIPS-plus package, rather than a standalone bill. “We have been working constantly on the CHIPS bill, and we need to have the transformative nature of research and education and the rest to make us continue to be preeminent in the world … We’ll see. But we are determined that we will pass the bill.” The House bill, H.R. 4521, the “America COMPETES Act,” would provide about $120 billion for DOE and NSF or developing technologies seen as crucial to the 21st-century economy. The Senate version, S. 1260, the “U.S. Innovation and Competition Act,” would direct $17 billion for DOE and close to $100 billion for the NSF (E&E Daily, June 14). Advocates for the research portion of the bill argued much of the heavy lifting to work out differences on the research and development side were close to being finished. They also argued they have bipartisan backing to help solve a national security concern. “We should also advance those things on which there was already agreement or closed out or on the cusp of being agreed, which have national security implications,” said Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), a top negotiator on the package. “It seems to me there will be a lot of bipartisan support behind advancing the Commerce title, which notably has research and development funds for things like hypersonics and quantum computing,” he added.
Haaland back on the Hill to defend budget, drilling plans - -Lawmakers get another crack at Interior Secretary Deb Haaland this week, with pointed questions already stacked up on a host of issues, including Alaska lands, oil and gas leasing, and endangered species protections.The Wednesday morning hearing before the Senate Interior and Environment Appropriations Subcommittee is ostensibly focused on the Interior Department’s fiscal 2023 budget request. The questions, though, typically go far afield at budget hearings; this week’s session is a makeup for one that was postponed earlier this year.The intervening weeks have given members of the subcommittee and staff new material to work with. The average U.S. gasoline price of $4.71 per gallon, for instance, is 20 cents lower than a month ago but still well above the $3.14-per-gallon average a year ago. “It really comes down to basic supply and demand,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said in late May. “The Biden administration needs to reverse its anti-supply actions, it needs to take its bad ideas off the table, it needs to restart approving crucial projects that deliver greater supply.”Murkowski is the top Republican on the Appropriations subcommittee.Her GOP colleague, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, is likewise one to bring the heat on energy questions. Panel Chair Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) has, among other recent priorities, worked closely with Interior on new monarch butterfly protection efforts for which some elaboration may be in order.Interior has announced it is establishing a new Center for Pollinator Conservation but has yet to provide many budgetary or staffing details (Greenwire, June 22).Haaland’s appearance before the Senate panel follows her earlier showing before the comparable House Appropriations subcommittee, where she stressed some energy-related actions the administration has taken.“We took steps to accelerate the development of renewable energy on public lands and waters,” Haaland told the House panel, adding in response to Republican concerns that “there is no ban” on oil and gas leasing operations.Interior’s fiscal 2023 budget proposal totals $18.1 billion — $17.5 billion in net discretionary authority — compared with the $14.1 billion the agency received in the recent omnibus funding package (Greenwire, March 28).Haaland previously pitched the Biden administration’s fiscal 2023 budget package as one that would “address climate challenges and build climate resilience, advance the clean energy economy, strengthen tribal communities, [and] reinforce Interior’s commitment to diversity and equity.”The House Appropriations Committee in June approved a $16.6 billion Interior funding package. Though far less than the $18.1 billion President Joe Biden requested in his fiscal 2023 budget, most of the department’s bureaus would see more money under the House proposal.
Yellen Says She Had 'Productive' Meetings on Russian Oil Price Cap (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Saturday she had productive meetings about a proposed price cap on Russian oil with a host of countries on the sidelines of a meeting of the finance chiefs of the Group of 20 major economies. Yellen said her bilateral meetings and the overall G20 sessions in Indonesia focused on the human and economic cost of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with the United States and other countries "unequivocal in condemning their (Russia's) shameful actions." Russia says it is engaged in a "special military operation" in Ukraine. The U.S. Treasury Department said Yellen met finance leaders from Saudi Arabia, Australia, South Africa, Turkey, and Singapore. She also had dinner with Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, a Treasury official said. "On energy costs, I had productive bilateral meetings with over a half-dozen of my counterparts where we discussed the merits of a price cap and how it can help us achieve our goals of denying (Russian President Vladimir) Putin revenue for his war machine, while dampening energy costs," Yellen told reporters outside the meeting venue. She said a price cap was one of "our most powerful tools to address the high prices people are facing in America and around the world." Yellen said she also underscored the importance of taking action at the G20 to address the global food security crisis. Yellen met Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong of Singapore and Turkish Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati, the Treasury said. Russia's says its action in Ukraine are intended to root out what it regards as dangerous nationalists and demilitarise its neighbour. Ukraine and its Western allies say that is a baseless pretext for an unprovoked war of aggression.
Yellen’s Deputy Rejects Secondary Sanctions for Russia Oil Cap -- Deputy US Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said he doesn’t anticipate Washington applying sanctions on countries or companies that fail to join a proposed price cap on Russian oil. “I don’t think we need secondary sanctions because, in this case, what we’re doing is something that is creating the right incentives for the countries that are purchasing Russian oil,” Adeyemo said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Wednesday. “There’s going to be a natural incentive for countries to join this coalition.”Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been championing a price cap on Russian oil as a way to limit revenues flowing to the Kremlin, which help fund the invasion of Ukraine, while still keeping Russian oil on global markets.The proposal would create an exception to a planned ban on insurers from covering any tankers that carry Russian oil, by setting an agreed cap just above Russia’s production costs.A senior US Treasury official speaking to reporters in Tokyo on Tuesday said blocking exports of Russian petroleum through the insurance ban without a price-cap exception would increase the global price of oil significantly, possibly to about $140 a barrel. It’s currently below $100 a barrel.China and India are among those that have continued importing Russian oil.Adeyemo said of countries that continue purchasing Russian crude, “Even if they decide not to formally join the coalition, they’re going to push Russia to pay as little as possible for oil because no one wants to pay more for oil than they need to.”The use of extra-territorial secondary sanctions to enforce restrictions is likely a measure of last resort, a person familiar with the matter said earlier this month.
How Biden’s “forever war” in Ukraine was prepared: Billions of dollars for weapons and military training since 2014 -- As the Ukrainian forces have continued to lose territory in the eastern Donbass region, including the entire Lugansk province, and reportedly suffer record casualties of over 500 per day, Zelensky and his entourage have implored the United States and its NATO allies to rapidly send even more powerful weaponry in an attempt to continue the war for as long as possible. While Zelensky and his advisers are attempting to portray themselves as scrappy underdogs taking on a treacherous bully, in reality, billions in military aid have already been sent to the country in order to provoke and exacerbate a war, which in its current form would never have occurred without massive training and funding from Western sources. While the United States and NATO have moved to rapidly arm Ukraine since February, the history of NATO involvement and funding reveals that the current war was both planned for and provoked by the imperialist powers for years. The ties by NATO to Ukraine go back to the Stalinist destruction of the Soviet Union and restoration of capitalism. In the 1990s, Ukraine’s Yaroviv Combat Training Center in the Lviv region of western Ukraine became the center of NATO operations and training. In March, the base, which had housed as many as 1,000 foreign fighters being training as part of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion, was hit by a Russian missile strike. Since 1997 Ukraine has also cooperated with the United States and NATO forces annually in the “Sea Breeze” multinational military exercises on the northwestern Black Sea coast. Russia participated only once in 1998 and since then has openly opposed the presence of NATO and US warships so close to its Black Sea fleet as the exercises were obviously intended todisplace Russia as the predominant naval power in the region.However, prior to 2014, previous Ukrainian administrations had attempted to maintain historical economic and political relations with Russia while simultaneously increasing ties with Western imperialism and NATO. In 2006 as prime minister and later in 2010 as president, Viktor Yanukovych had effectively stopped Ukraine’s path towards NATO membership leading the NATO Review Journal to condemn what it called a “significant slow-down” in the country’s NATO integration. In 2014 in a US-and EU-backed coup, the Yanukovych government was overthrown. The coup triggered not only the Russian annexation of Crimea, a peninsula in the Black Sea, which hosts Russia’s Black Sea fleet, and an eight-year-long civil war in East Ukraine. Above all, it marked the beginning of the systematic, multi-billion dollar transformation of Ukraine’s military into what is essentially a proxy army of the NATO alliance, in order to prepare for all-out war with Russia. Thanks to massive funding from NATO and an increase of Ukraine’s military spending to a massive 6 percent of GDP, the armed forces roughly doubled in size between 2014 and 2022, reaching 246,445 in 2021 (with over 195,000 military personnel). Thus, within just a few years, Ukraine’s army became one of the largest armies in the region, second only to Russia’s armed forces. Beginning in late 2014, the Ukrainian army was also rapidly transformed to operate according to NATO standards. At the same time, the Ukrainian government authorized the formation of far-right militias, such as the Azov Battalion, who could now count on government assistance and training both foreign and domestic. Such forces would be used to continue the civil war against Russian-backed Donbass separatists while Ukraine collaborated with the US and NATO to transform its moribund and corrupt military. By 2020, Reuters estimated that such militia forces, largely consisting of and run by far-right extremists, constituted 40 percent of Ukrainian forces and numbered 102,000. The internal transformation of Ukraine’s Army to NATO standards was achieved with significant training from both NATO and the US, focusing on changes to command structure and the building of non-commissioned officers (NCOs), who were given permission to quickly make their own decisions in contrast to a more hierarchical Soviet command structure. Interoperability with other NATO forces was a major goal, recognizing that any “winning” of a war with Russia would require fighting alongside NATO forces. Officers suspected of being Russian sympathizers were arrested, discharged or chose to flee to Russia or the Donbass.
New York City releases nuclear war alert - On Monday, New York City’s Office of Emergency Management (OEM) released a 90-second public service announcement (PSA) giving instructions to city residents on what to do in the event of a nuclear attack on America’s largest city. The video begins with the narration, “So there has been a nuclear attack. Don’t ask me how or why, just know that the big one has hit.” The narrator, standing in what appears to be an undamaged luxury apartment, gives the following suggestions: “Get inside,” “stay inside,” and await further instructions. The advice given to residents includes to “shower with soap or shampoo” and to “stay tuned” using the “notify NYC” internet-based phone app. The video concludes with the narrator saying, “All right? You’ve got this,” before walking out of the frame. Everything about the video, from its breezy narration to its trivial advice, is completely absurd. In the event of a nuclear strike on New York City, there will be no buildings to shelter in, no water to shower with, and certainly no internet to get phone notifications. At first glance, it would appear that the people who commissioned and released the video have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. But such a video, dealing with critical civil defense issues, could only have been produced in consultation with the highest echelons of the Pentagon and the US government. Its absurdity is a product not of ignorance, but of deception. Its aim is to acclimate the public to the idea of nuclear war, while hiding its horrifying reality. A nuclear attack on New York City would be part of a full-scale thermonuclear exchange, involving the launching of thousands of warheads at cities and infrastructure throughout the United States and the world. Such an event would make 9/11 seem minuscule in comparison. The city and its environs would be struck by multiple thermonuclear warheads, each with a yield of over one hundred times the “Fat Man” nuclear weapon that destroyed Hiroshima. In such a scenario, the entire New York City skyline would be incinerated and leveled, killing almost everyone taking shelter in the metropolis’s skyscrapers. Those who somehow survived in underground shelters would face not only the collapse of agriculture and trade, but the permanent effects of nuclear radiation that would continue to kill and maim year after year. A nuclear exchange between Russia and the United States would “release soot and smoke into the upper atmosphere that would block out the Sun resulting in crop failure around the world,” a study published by Louisiana State University concluded last month. The study found that such an exchange would lower global temperatures by approximately 13 degrees, greater than the last ice age that ended around 11,700 years ago. The global ice age triggered by a nuclear war between Russia and the United States would decimate the population of every single part of the planet, even the residents of the most remote Pacific islands or the deepest Amazon rainforest. The scenario depicted in the PSA would, in other words, be the end of human civilization. The PSA begins by stating, “Don’t ask me how or why.” However, faced with this horrifying prospect, the population must clearly ask “how” and “why”— before it’s too late.
US Believes OPEC Could Increase Oil Supply, Biden To Raise Issue Soon – Sullivan --The United States believes that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could take further steps to increase the global oil supply and President Joe Biden will raise the issue during his visit to the middle East in the coming days, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Monday. "We do believe there is a capacity for further steps that could be taken and we will see how that unfolds as we go for a specific figure," Sullivan said during a press briefing.Biden is expected to raise this issue during his meetings with Mideast counterparts during his upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia, Sullivan added.
Biden meets with the Butcher of Riyadh -On Friday, President Joe Biden will meet with Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of the theocratic dictatorship of Saudi Arabia. It is less than four years since bin Salman masterminded the cold-blooded murder of Jamal Khashoggi, an American citizen and columnist for the Washington Post, one of the most widely read newspapers in the US. Khashoggi’s murder was an act of monumental criminality, sparking an international outcry. There was universal recognition that he was butchered in cold blood by the Saudi monarchy. Bin Salman is, by the Biden administration’s own admission, a murderer. He is a man who would be arrested on sight in any country with the slightest commitment to the rule of law. Even the most intransigent opponents of capital punishment might make an exception for him. And yet, disregarding the pleas of the murdered man’s fiancée and family, Biden now publicly embraces Khashoggi’s murderer. When he returns to the White House, he will track in on his shoes traces of Khashoggi’s blood. Biden’s announcement has been met with no public outcry in the US media. Last month, the Washington Post editorial board called rumors of the trip “disappointing,” but did not demand it be called off. It has since kept its mouth shut. In February of 2021, the Biden administration issued a report concluding that bin Salman personally “approved” the 2018 murder of Khashoggi. Khashoggi was lured to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey to obtain documents related to his upcoming marriage. Once inside, he was killed by a group of assassins. A recording subsequently released by the Turkish government appeared to document his body being dismembered with a saw. At a Democratic presidential debate in November 2019, Biden was categorical that were he elected president, his administration would stop selling weapons to Saudi Arabia for use in its war against Yemen, and he would “punish” the Saudi officials who killed Khashoggi.
House to vote on constraining US arms sales to Saudis on eve of Biden trip -Progressives are looking to constrain the Biden administration’s ability to send weapons and enter security agreements with Saudi Arabia as President Biden gears up for a controversial visit to strengthen ties with the country. The Democratic lawmakers have introduced a number of amendments to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) aiming to limit military support to the oil-rich monarchy, which is among the largest U.S. customers for foreign weapons sales. The lawmakers proposing the measures say they are necessary to establish boundaries given Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Yemen’s civil war and broader human rights concerns. They also point out the 2018 killing at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul of Jamal Khashoggi, a columnist for The Washington Post . “An American resident, a columnist for The Washington Post, and my constituent was — at the direction of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia — brutally murdered and dismembered in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, a little over three years ago,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) told The Hill. “Justice is still waiting. And to me, that means you suspend normal relations with a country whose leader did that. And so I think we need some legislative guidance and direction circumscribing that relationship.” Democrats filed a handful of amendments to the NDAA in the House Rules Committee for eventual floor consideration, though only two were allowed to be debated on the floor. One amendment, sponsored by Connolly, Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), would impose temporary limits on arms sales to Saudi Arabia and require reports and actions related to Khashoggi’s death. The other amendment, led by Malinowski, Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) and five other Democrats, would require the secretary of State to develop guidance for investigating indications that U.S.-origin defense articles have been used in Yemen by the Saudi-led coalition in “substantial violation of relevant agreements with countries participating in the coalition.”
Biden heads to Saudi Arabia for what could be an 'embarrassing' climbdown — or a welcome reset - President Joe Biden is headed to Saudi Arabia this week as part of his first Middle East trip as commander in chief. He's going with a list of goals, including energy security, bringing the Saudis and Israel closer together, advancing a truce in Yemen, and establishing a more cohesive regional front against Iran. But it's a controversial move for this president, and no one is really sure how much he'll actually achieve. The planned visit has spurred plenty of criticism, from both the right and left, for being what some are calling an "embarrassing" climbdown and for revealing a clear reversal from the tough talk against the kingdom that Biden had employed during his candidacy and in the early months of his presidency. Now, things are different. Gasoline in the U.S. has been at its most expensive ever, Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine has dramatically tightened the global oil supply, and Biden really, really wants Saudi Arabia and Israel to be friends. So will the trip feel like an awkward apology, or a reset for two countries with mutual interests? "I wouldn't go. I wouldn't shake his hand," Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., said in an interview in June, when asked about the president's planned meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He then referred to the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which the administration attributed to the crown prince. The Saudi government has repeatedly rejected the accusation. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends the G20 Leaders' Summit via videoconference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on October 30, 2021. Royal Court of Saudi Arabia | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images While campaigning in 2019, Biden vowed to treat the Saudi kingdom as "the pariah that they are," and as president, he vocally criticized the country's human rights abuses. He also insisted on viewing Saudi Arabia's King Salman as his counterpart, rather than the 36-year-old crown prince, who runs the kingdom's day-to-day affairs. Crown Prince Mohammed in March reportedly refused to take a call from Biden, as the U.S. leader pleaded with Gulf states to increase oil production after banning Russian oil imports. And in an early March interview with The Atlantic, when asked if he thought Biden misunderstood him, the crown prince replied: "Simply, I do not care. It's up to him to think about the interests of America."
What Biden's Saudi trip says about U.S. climate efforts - President Joe Biden heads to Saudi Arabia this week on a visit that exemplifies how much his administration’s approach to climate change has been rattled by shifting geopolitics and a spike in global energy prices. On the campaign trail, Biden pledged to make the oil-rich nation a pariah over the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. And at global climate talks last year, Biden said high energy prices only reinforced the urgent need to “double down on clean energy deployment” to prevent overreliance on one source of power. Now Biden is scheduled to fly Friday to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where analysts expect oil production will be a top priority when he meets with officials from Saudi Arabia and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Egypt, Iraq and Jordan. “It clearly is sort of contradictory rhetoric to the climate emergency and existential threat of climate change and need to get off of fossil fuels,” said Alden Meyer, a senior associate at E3G and a longtime observer of annual climate negotiations. The visit also underscores the challenge the United States and other countries face in trying to curb their dependence on fossil fuels, an energy source that’s long powered economic growth at the expense of warming the planet. And it raises concerns about engaging with petrostates such as Saudi Arabia with a history of human rights abuses — something the Biden administration has railed against since Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. Administration officials have defended the trip and downplayed the role oil would play in conversations. Biden said earlier this month he wouldn’t specifically appeal to the Saudis to boost oil production but would speak to Gulf states broadly at a regional summit (Energywire, July 1). In an op-ed over the weekend, Biden focused on the benefits a more secure and integrated Middle East could offer, calling its energy resources “vital for mitigating the impact on global supplies of Russia’s war in Ukraine.” There are other geostrategic and national security priorities for the United States in the Middle East, such as Iran and relations between Israel and its neighbors, so the visit won’t be all about energy, say analysts. But Saudi Arabia’s power over the global oil market has taken on new prominence as countries seek to end their use of Russian oil. And that complicates another part of Biden’s campaign pledge — setting a high bar on emissions reductions as an example for other countries to follow.
Speaking together, Biden and Lapid reveal their dividing line on Iran. — Israel’s caretaker prime minister, Yair Lapid, pushed President Biden on Thursday to go beyond his public commitment to stopping Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon, declaring that all democratic nations must vow to act if the Iranians continue “to develop their nuclear program.”The distinction between Mr. Biden’s commitment and Mr. Lapid’s declaration was more than semantic: It goes to the heart of their countries’ differing approaches in dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Israel has conducted a series of covert sabotage and assassination operations to slow Iran’s ability to enrich nuclear fuel, while Mr. Biden has insisted that diplomacy, and a restoration of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, are the best way to find a permanent solution.“If they continue to develop their nuclear program, the free world will use force,” Mr. Lapid said at the opening of a news conference in Jerusalem after the two leaders met as part of Mr. Biden’s four-day visit to the Middle East. During those remarks, Mr. Biden listened attentively but never repeated that commitment. Instead, he stuck to talking about blocking Iran from obtaining a weapon — not a program that might be intended to develop one.In the short news conference, Mr. Biden was pressed directly on whether he would raise the case of a murdered Saudi dissident, Jamal Khashoggi, when he meets with Saudi leaders on Friday. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was deemed responsible for the brutal 2018 killing in Istanbul of Mr. Khashoggi, a columnist for The Washington Post who was living in the United States.Mr. Biden said on Thursday that his views on the murder were well-known — but he stopped short of saying whether he would specifically raise the dissident’s name during his meeting.“My views on Khashoggi have been absolutely, positively clear,” Mr. Biden said, adding that he had never hesitated to speak openly to allies and adversaries about human rights. But with the American leader scheduled to fly directly from Israel to Jeddah on Friday — a flight that itself says much about the changed environment in the Middle East — administration officials were still debating how, if at all, he should raise the case in public comments on Saudi soil.In other cases, recently including Cuba and Venezuela, Mr. Biden has stressed that his administration is making democracy and respect for human rights the paramount consideration for dealing with other nations’ leaders. But on Thursday in Jerusalem he said, “the reason I am going to Saudi Arabia is to promote U.S. interests,” which include getting the kingdom to pump more oil from its somewhat modest spare capacity. Mr. Biden’s news conference with Mr. Lapid was the only scheduled set of extensive remarks on his trip to the Middle East. He used it to bolster the blossoming relationship between Israel and a handful of Arab states, including the creation of a joint air defense zone to protect against Iranian drones and missiles. Administration officials say that while they are pushing for full diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, they expect only incremental progress toward that goal on this trip.
Iran to send hundreds of drones to Russia for use in Ukraine, U.S. says - Iran is preparing to supply Russia with hundreds of drone aircraft, including advanced models capable of firing missiles, the Biden administration said Monday, publicly revealing what U.S. officials say is a secret effort by Tehran to provide military assistance for Russian’s invasion of Ukraine.The planned delivery of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, disclosed by national security adviser Jake Sullivan at a White House briefing, could provide a significant boost to Moscow’s efforts to find and destroy Western-supplied artillery and other weapons systems that have slowed the advance of Russian troops in recent weeks.Sullivan said Iran is also preparing to train the Russians on how to use the weapons, with initial training sessions set to begin as soon as this month.“Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline,” Sullivan told reporters in the White House briefing room.“It’s unclear whether Iran has delivered any of these UAVs to Russia already,” Sullivan said, “but this is just one example of how Russia is looking to countries like Iran for capabilities.” The revelation comes as President Biden prepares to depart for the Middle East, where he is expected to confer with key allies on a unified regional policy toward Iran. Tensions between Washington and Tehran have been further strained in recent weeks, amid faltering nuclear talks and an uptick in rocket and drone attacks on U.S. military installations in the Middle East, conducted by militia groups armed and funded by Iran.While Russia has its own extensive arsenal of drones, the arrival of Iranian aircraft could help Moscow replenish a key weapons system that suffered heavy losses during the four-month conflict. Surveillance UAVs play a crucial role in the targeting of enemy forces by artillery, and weaponized drones can hover over the battlefield for hours, launching missiles that can destroy tanks and other armored vehicles.
Joe Biden's slip of tongue moment in Israel, accidentally asks to keep 'honour' of Holocaust alive [WATCH] During an official visit to the Middle-East region, US president Joe Biden seem to make yet another verbal gaffe in his first stop to Israel on Wednesday. In his address in Israel, Biden accidentally said “truth and honour of the holocaust” instead of ‘horror’, though the latter corrected himself quickly. The video clip of the incident surfaced online and went viral within minutes. In the viral clip, Biden can be heard saying, “Later today, I will once more return to the hallowed ground of Yad Vashem to honor the 6 million Jewish lives that were stolen in a genocide and continue, which we must do every, every day — continue to bear witness, to keep alive the truth and honour of the Holocaust — horror of the Holocaust — honour those we lost, so that we never, ever forget that lesson…”. Watch:
Biden calls for a ‘lasting negotiated peace’ between Israel and the Palestinians. — President Biden called on Thursday for a “lasting negotiated peace between the State of Israel and the Palestinian people” and reiterated his calls for a two-state solution to the conflict.Israel “must remain an independent, democratic Jewish state,” Mr. Biden said at a news conference in Jerusalem after meeting with the country’s prime minister, Yair Lapid, during a four-day visit to the Middle East. “The best way to achieve that remains a two-state solution.”Before the president’s arrival on Wednesday, the Israeli government had made several small gestures to the Palestinians, including granting some new work permits for Gazans. But while Mr. Biden will visit President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority in Bethlehem on Friday, restoring communications that were cut off during the Trump presidency, there are few expectations that the visit will bring progress in resolving the dispute.Palestinian anger at the Biden administration has risen in recent weeks amid claims that the United States favors Israel and accusations that the United States tried to shield Israel from scrutiny after the death of Shireen Abu Akleh, a prominent Palestinian American journalist who was killed while reporting in the occupied West Bank in May.For years, Palestinians have questioned Washington’s ability to neutrally mediate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, citing strong American support for Israel at the United Nations and the size of U.S. financial and military support to Israel, which has cumulatively received more American aid than any other country since World War II.Palestinians have been also disappointed by Mr. Biden’s failure to reverse several measures taken by the Trump administration that Palestinians felt were harmful to their hopes of independence.The State Department has not formally rescinded a Trump administration decision to bestow legitimacy on Israeli settlements in the West Bank, considered illegal by most of the world. After Israeli pressure, the United States has not reopenedits consulate for the Palestinians in Jerusalem. And the Palestinian mission in Washington remains closed.“All in all, from a Palestinian perspective, the administration has not done what it needs or what it takes in order to fix the damage that was done,” said Ibrahim Dalalsha, a former liaison between the U.S. government and the Palestinian leadership and director of the Horizon Center, a research group in the West Bank.Mr. Biden’s visit is unlikely to change that dynamic significantly.Israel’s prime minister, Yair Lapid, broadly supports the concept of a Palestinian state, unlike his predecessor, Naftali Bennett. But Mr. Lapid is in his role only on an interim basis, pending elections in the fall, and he lacks the mandate to change the current situation.
U.S. announces $316M for Palestinians as Biden visits West Bank - — In a small step he hopes pays off big, President Joe Biden has proposed a series of initiatives to mend America’s ties with Palestinians that the Trump administration relished in cutting. After spending the last two days in Israel, Biden will travel to the West Bank for a meeting with Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president, and to visit a hospital in East Jerusalem. Former President Donald Trump ended nearly all aid to Palestinians three years ago and fully sided with Israel’s positions in the decades-long dispute over a two-state solution. That left Biden the enormous task of restoring Ramallah’s faith in Washington while breathing life into a peace process nearing death. Biden and Prime Minister of Israel hold joint press conference The $316 million in support the White House announced Thursday night is an effort to do both of those things. A $201 million chunk is for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, known as UNRWA, which provides refugee services in the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan and more. Trump ended the decades-long assistance in 2018, which critics at the time argued was decided to place pressure on Palestinians to reach a peace deal with Israelis. The move blew a budgetary hole in the agency as the U.S. accounts for about 30 percent of its funding. But with this new aid, the Biden administration ups its total provided to $618 million since the start of 2021. The administration also proposed a multi-year contribution of $100 million for the East Jerusalem Hospitals Network, which provides medical care ranging from oncological care to emergency services for 50,000 local patients — though the funding would require authorization from Congress. Israel will also help Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza achieve 4G connectivity by the end of next year, per the fact sheet, while the U.S. will provide $15 million in humanitarian assistance to ward off dwindling food supplies due to the war in Ukraine.
Biden states support for two-state solution, but 'ground not ripe' to restart Israel-Palestine talks - US President Joe Biden said that US commitment to a two-state solution “has not changed”, but that the “ground is not ripe” to restart talks between Israel and Palestine. The American president was speaking during a joint press conference with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank on Friday. US President Joe Biden pledged on Friday to keep up efforts to support a just solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict even though the goal of a two-state solution appeared far off. Speaking alongside Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Bethlehem, Biden said the United States would not give up on the goal of a just settlement to the decades-long conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. "Even if the ground is not right at this moment to restart negotiations, the United States and my administration will not give up on trying to bring the Palestinians, Israelis and both sides closer together." "There must be a political horizon that the Palestinian people can actually see or at least feel. We cannot allow the hopelessness to steal away the future," Biden said The comments were likely to disappoint the Palestinians, who are looking to the U.S. to press Israel into restarting peace talks. The last substantive talks collapsed over a decade ago. Meanwhile, Abbas said “the key to peace” in the region “begins with ending the Israeli occupation of our land.” He added: “I am willing to extend an open hand to Israeli leaders so that we can bring peace to the region.” But as Biden said US commitment to a two-state solution “has not changed”, Abbas said there was a narrowing window for a resolution of this nature. "The opportunity for a two-state solution on the 1967 borders may be available today, and it may not remain for a long time," Abbas said after meeting with US President. Abbas said “the key to peace” in the region “begins with ending the Israeli occupation of our land”.
Biden visits Palestinians, Abbas ahead of Saudi trip, pledges Abu Akleh investigation - President Biden devoted the last hours of his Israeli visit to restoring the ties with Palestinians severed by his predecessor, visiting a Palestinian hospital Friday in East Jerusalem and crossing an Israeli military checkpoint to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Bethlehem. Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for the latest updates on Russia's war in Ukraine. The president called for a full accounting of the May killing of Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh during an Israeli raid in the West Bank, the first time he has publicly mentioned the incident during his visit. Biden’s two events produced no progress toward renewed talks in the long-stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process. But the White House did announce a range of measures meant to improve the situation at a time “when Palestinians are hurting, you can just feel it,” Biden said after his meeting with Abbas. “I know that the goal of the two state [solution] seems so far away, while indignities like restrictions on movement and travel or the daily worry of your children’s safety are real and immediate,” the president said. “So even if the ground is not ripe at this moment to restart negotiations, the United States and my administration will not give up on trying to bring the Palestinians and the Israelis closer together.” The administration approved $316 million in new aid for Palestinians, including $100 million for a hospital network that serves patients from the West Bank and Gaza. Another $200 million will go to the United Nations agency that supports Palestinian refugees, funding that was largely eliminated by the Trump administration. Biden, who has pledged to renew support for Palestinians, began restoring Washington’s contribution soon after taking office.
Biden's 'shameful' fist-bump with Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman shocks Twitter, Washington Post CEO -- President Biden’s fist-bump greeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Friday sent Twitter into a tizzy with everyone from The Washington Post's CEO to Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., criticizing the "shameful" viral gesture. The Biden administration declassified a report last year blaming the crown prince for approving the operation to capture or kill journalist and dissident Jamal Khashoggi, a contributor to The Washington Post who was killed in 2018 by Saudi security officials. As a result, many Biden supporters were concerned that a handshake with the Saudi leader would be terrible optics for the administration. Earlier on his trip to the Middle East, the White House had said that due to COVID-19 precautions, Biden would stay away from handshaking. Many assumed the guidance was an excuse to avoid a handshake between Biden and the crown prince, but the president shook hands with almost every person he greeted on the tarmac upon arrival. When Biden arrived at the Al Salam Royal Palace, he greeted the crown prince with a now-infamous first-bump that didn’t go over very well on social media. Washington Post publisher and CEO Fred Ryan slammed the fist bump as "shameful" in a statement. "The fist bump between President Biden and Mohammed bin Salman was worse than a handshake — it was shameful. It projected a level of intimacy and comfort that delivers to MBS the unwarranted redemption he has been desperately seeking," Ryan wrote.
Biden says he raised Khashoggi murder with Saudi crown prince - President Joe Biden on Friday, after a much-criticized meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, said he had raised the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi with the de-facto Saudi leader. "I raised it at the top of the meeting," Biden said of the case of Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist based in the U.S., "making it clear what I thought of it at the time, and what I think of it now." "I was straightforward and direct in discussing it. I made my new crystal clear. I said very straightforwardly, for an American president to be silent on an issue of human rights is inconsistent with who we are and who I am," he added. Mohammed bin Salman's response was that he was not personally responsible, Biden said. "I indicated I thought he was," Biden continued about the 2018 killing at the Saudi embassy in Turkey that U.S. intelligence says the crown prince approved. Before the meeting, Biden had declined to commit to raising Khashoggi's murder and the Saudi record on human rights in general.Hatice Cengiz, Khashoggi's fiancee, previously described Biden's decision to visit Saudi Arabia as "heartbreaking." On Friday, she criticized Biden's seemingly warm welcome with the crown prince, adding a photo of them fist-bumping. "What Jamal Khashoggi would tweet today," Cengiz wrote on Twitter. "Hey @POTUS, Is this the accountability you promised for my murder? The blood of MBS's next victim is on your hands."
MBS hits back at Biden after the President confronts Saudi prince about Khashoggi - Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, hit back at Joe Biden after the US President confronted him about the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi during a meeting between the two leaders on Friday. In the meeting, Bin Salman, also known as MBS, denied responsibility for the killing of Khashoggiat the kingdom's Istanbul consulate. Biden said he indicated that he disagreed with MBS, based on US intelligence assessments, according to the source. In response to Biden bringing up Khashoggi, MBS cited the sexual and physical abuse of prisoners at Iraq's Abu Ghraib prison by US military personnel and the May killing of Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh in the occupied West Bank as incidents that reflected poorly on the US, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the Saudi foreign minister, told reporters on Saturday. "The Crown Prince responded to President Biden's remarks on ... Khashoggi after quite clearly -- that this crime, while very unfortunate and abhorrent, is something that the kingdom took very seriously (and) acted upon in a way commiserate with its position as a responsible country," bin Farhan said. "These are issues, mistakes that happen in any country, including the US. The Crown Prince pointed out that the US has made its own mistakes and has taken the necessary action to hold those responsible accountable and address these mistakes just as the kingdom has."Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir echoed the sentiment in an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer shortly after the end of the meeting, which Jubeir was part of. "We investigated, punished and ensure that this doesn't happen again," Jubeir said when asked about the Khashoggi murder. "This is what countries do. This is what the US did when the mistake of Abu Ghraib was committed."
Saudi Arabia agrees to increase oil production levels, will help 'stabilize markets,' White House says - The White House on Friday said Saudi Arabia has committed to increasing oil production in July and August—a move that will help "stabilize markets considerably." The commitment from Saudi Arabia came after bilateral meetings between President Biden and administration officials and King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Said and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as Saudi Ministers. "Saudi Arabia has committed to support global oil market balancing for sustained economic growth," the White House said. "We have welcomed the increase in production levels 50 percent above what was planned for July and August." "These steps and further steps that we anticipate over the coming weeks have and will help stabilize markets considerably," the White House said. Also in the meetings, the White House said Biden welcomed the singing of a bilateral Partnership Framework for Advancing Clean Energy, with new Saudi investments to "accelerate the energy transition and combat the effects of climate change." The White House said the framework "focuses particularly on solar, green hydrogen, nuclear, and other clean energy initiatives." "By building upon existing collaboration between energy experts in our countries, we seek to enhance our efforts to tackle climate change and advance greater deployment of clean energy resources around the world," the White House said, noting the partnership "will leverage public and private sector collaboration to advance the deployment of clean energy solutions while accelerating research, development, and demonstration of innovative technologies needed to decarbonize the global economy and achieve net-zero emissions."
US not expecting Saudi Arabia to immediately boost oil output -— The United States does not expect Saudi Arabia to immediately boost oil output and awaits the outcome of an Opec+ meeting on August 3, the US national security adviser said yesterday, lowering expectations as US President Joe Biden visits the kingdom. “I don’t think you should expect a particular announcement here bilaterally because we believe any further action taken to ensure that there is sufficient energy to protect the health of the global economy, it will be done in the context of Opec+,” Jake Sullivan said. Earlier yesterday, a US official had also told Reuters that Washington was not expecting any immediate output rise as a result of the visit. Biden landed in Jeddah yesterday on a trip that is designed to reset the US relationship with the kingdom and during which energy supply, human rights and security cooperation are on the agenda. The US could secure a commitment that Opec+ will boost production in the months ahead, which could send a signal to the market that supplies are coming if necessary. Saudi Arabia, alongside the United Arab Emirates, holds the bulk of spare capacity within the Opec+ group, an alliance between the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters, notably Russia. Soon after his landing, Biden met and shook hands with the Saudi king and held a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other ministers, including energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. But the kingdom has repeatedly indicated it would not act unilaterally. O Brent crude prices are trading around US$100 (RM444.90) a barrel, having fallen from a 14-year high of US$139.13 in March as investors weigh the impact on demand of Covid-19 lockdowns in top importer China and recession fears. “Saudi Arabia prefers to manage the market through the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers (Opec+), not through unilateral moves,”
Biden to end Middle East trip with no announcement on increasing oil supply— President Joe Biden will leave the Middle East this week with no announcements on increasing oil supply before a scheduled meeting of producers next month, people familiar with the matter said. Biden, who came to office vowing to turn the world’s biggest oil exporter into a “pariah” over the 2018 killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, said he decided to make the trip to advance US interests and try and curb soaring gasoline prices, which have hurt him politically ahead of mid-term elections. Biden heads to Saudi Arabia from Israel later on Friday, where he’ll meet with King Salman bin Abdulaziz and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the nation’s de-facto ruler. He will meet other leaders from the oil-exporting Persian Gulf on Saturday. Officials from the US and Saudi governments have been in close contact on the issue of energy markets, and discussions will continue regarding output from members of the OPEC+ cartel, one of the people said, asking not to be named because the deliberations aren’t public. Biden officials privately say agreements have been reached but no details will be announced until the next scheduled meetings of OPEC+ next month. “I don’t think you should expect a particular announcement here bilaterally because we believe any further action taken to ensure that there is sufficient energy to protect the health of the global economy will be done in the context of OPEC+,” Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, told reporters on the flight to Jeddah.
EPA needs a Senate-confirmed enforcement chief, groups say - The Washington Post -- Five prominent environmental groups are calling on the Senate to swiftly confirm a permanent head of the Environmental Protection Agency's enforcement office, according to details shared exclusively with The Climate 202. President Biden nominated David Uhlmann more than a year ago to lead the EPA's Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance, which holds companies accountable when they violate the nation's environmental laws. Now Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) must prioritize floor time for the nomination, especially after a Supreme Court ruling that limited the EPA's ability to tackle climate change, the leaders of the five green groups argue in a joint statement. “Mr. Uhlmann is exceptionally well-qualified, and his confirmation will allow EPA to better protect vulnerable communities from the harmful effects of pollution and ensure that all Americans have access to safe drinking water,” the leaders wrote. “His confirmation also will allow EPA to increase its efforts to enforce existing climate regulations, an immediate step that the Senate can take in the aftermath of last week’s Supreme Court decision in West Virginia v. EPA curtailing the Agency’s ability to address climate change,” they added.
Chuck Schumer tests positive for coronavirus amid wave of new U.S. cases - Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) has tested positive for the coronavirus, his spokesman said in a statement late Sunday. The positive result came “as a part of his regular testing regimen,” said the spokesman, Justin Goodman. Schumer is fully vaccinated and “double boosted” and is experiencing very mild symptoms, Goodman said.The majority leader was expected to meet privately with Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) this week to work out a spending deal that would lower health-care costs and combat climate change, according to two people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the deliberations. Goodman said Schumer will be isolating in accordance with guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and working remotely. “Anyone who knows Leader Schumer knows that even if he’s not physically in the Capitol, through virtual meetings and his trademark flip phone, he will continue with his robust schedule and remain in near constant contact with his colleagues,” he said.Schumer joins a long list of leaders in the federal government who have tested positive for the coronavirus. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) tested positive in April, as did Vice President Harris. Last month,Anthony S. Fauci, the president’s chief medical adviser, also tested positive.New coronavirus cases are up slightly in the United States this week, according to a Washington Post tracker, with about 100,000 new cases reported daily on average.Those figures are likely to be an undercount, experts say, because many Americans have stopped testing regularly or are testing at home, where positive results are difficult to include in official tallies.The latest offshoot of the omicron variant, BA.5, has quickly become dominant in the United States and is driving a wave of cases across the country. BA.5 is deft at evading the human immune system. Antibodies from vaccines and previous infections offer limited protection against it. Eric Topol, a professor at Scripps Research who tracks pandemic trends, wrote last month that it was “the worst version of the virus that we’ve seen.”
Biden officials push to offer second booster shot to all adults - Biden administration officials are developing a plan to allow all adults to receive a second coronavirus booster shot, pending federal agency sign-offs, as the White House and health experts seek to blunt a virus surge that has sent hospitalizations to their highest levels since March 3.Virus levels have risen across the country, fueled by ever-more-contagious omicron subvariants such as BA. 5 that evade some immune protections and have increased the risk of reinfections. About 112,000 new cases have been reported per day, according to The Washington Post’s rolling seven-day average — with the actual number probably many times higher, experts say, as most Americans test at home. Hospitalization and death levels are mounting, although they remain significantly below January peaks, with about 38,000 people hospitalized with covid as of Sunday and an average daily death toll of 327 as of Monday.Currently, a second booster shot is available only to those 50 and older, as well as to those 12 and older who are immunocompromised. But administration officials are concerned by data that suggests immunity wanes within several months of the first booster shot. Swiftly expanding access to booster shots also would enable people who are boosted now to receive reformulated shots that target newer virus variants, when those become available, probably later this year. In addition, officials want to use vaccine doses that are reaching their expiration dates and would otherwise be discarded.
Fauci Admits Vaccines Don't Protect "Overly Well" Against COVID Infection - White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci acknowledged during an appearance on Fox News that while vaccines may protect from symptoms of the virus, they “don’t protect overly well” when it comes to transmission of COVID.Cavuto asked Fauci to respond to Americans who are unsure about taking another round of the vaccine.“And they’re beginning to wonder about the regimen for treating it, whether you get two vaccination shots, whether you get a booster, another booster. They just don’t know. What do you tell them?” he asked.“One of the things that’s clear from the data is that, even though vaccines, because of the high degree of transmissibility of this virus, don’t protect overly well, as it were, against infection, they protect quite well against severe disease leading to hospitalization and death,” Fauci responded.It’s important to remember that we’re not far removed from a time when authorities insisted that vaccines were “100 per cent safe and effective” and anyone who challenged that narrative was demonized as an anti-vaxxer.Fauci is in a good position to know that vaccines don’t protect against COVID infections.As we previously highlighted, Fauci tested positive for the virus back in June despite being quadruple vaccinated.He then caught COVID again for the second time in the space of a fortnight after completing a course of Paxlovid.But yeah, “100 per cent safe and effective!”
Fauci: Take new subvariant seriously, but don’t ‘let it disrupt our lives’ -The subvariant, known as BA.5, now makes up the majority of COVID-19 cases in the United States. It is even more highly transmissible than earlier variants of the virus, and has an increased ability to evade the protection of vaccines and prior infections. But health officials stressed that vaccines still provide important protection against severe illness, especially if people stay up-to-date on their booster shots. “We should not let it disrupt our lives, but we cannot deny that it is a reality we need to deal with,” Fauci said at a White House press briefing. “It’s something that A, we don’t panic on, B, we don’t let it disrupt our lives, but we take it seriously enough and utilize the tools that we have to mitigate,” he later added. The White House on Tuesday released a fact sheet with its plan for fighting the subvariant, which was largely a continuation of measures the administration had previously emphasized.
BA.5 Covid-19 Omicron Variant: How FDA, CDC Are Failing Us - - The latest subvariant of the novel-coronavirus is spreading fast. And the federal government is struggling to keep up. There’s a lot the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention can do to slow the BA.5 subvariant and prevent deaths. But both the FDA and CDC have dragged their heels. The FDA still hasn’t taken arguably the most important steps — approving both second boosters for Americans under age 50 and new booster formulations for subvariants such as BA.5. The CDC meanwhile isn’t clearly communicating to the public just how serious BA.5 is. The delays are hard to explain, experts say. “We have known for a while that this variant was coming and that it seemed to be more transmissible,” says Cindy Prins, a University of Florida epidemiologist. BA.5, an offshoot of the basic Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, first turned up in viral samples in South Africa back in February. Three months later it was dominant in Israel and across Europe, displacing earlier forms of the pathogen while also driving an increase in global daily Covid cases from around 477,000 a day in early June to 940,000 a day this week. In late June, BA.5 became dominant in the United States, too. For months before BA.5, daily new U.S. Covid cases had hovered around 100,000. This week cases jumped a third to 130,000 a day. Daily Covid deaths in the U.S. also increased a third, to 400. BA.5’s dominance is baked into its RNA. Where the mutations that produced many earlier variants and subvariants largely affected the spike protein — the part of the pathogen that helps it to grab onto our cells — BA.5 has mutations all over its structure. BA.5’s broad mutations make the subvariant less recognizable to our antibodies, whether they’re from vaccines, boosters, past infection, or a mix of all three. BA.5 is skilled at sneaking past our immune systems, contributing to rising rates of reinfections and breakthrough cases in fully-vaccinated people. Still, practically no U.S. experts expect a fresh round of mask mandates or new restrictions on business or travel. Public-health measures such as these have become politically toxic in the U.S. One of the most helpful things the CDC can do is promptly communicate where the risk is greatest and where people should consider voluntarily masking up and limiting their exposure to crowds. One of the CDC’s main tools for communicating Covid risk is an interactive map it maintains that displays COVID data on a county level. “The CDC’s community-specific model for assessing current transmission levels is an excellent compromise to keep the public vigilant that we are still amidst a pandemic, while adapting the recommendations to the local level,” says Anthony Alberg, a University of South Carolina epidemiologist. But the map in its default setting displays somewhat old data. Joaquín Beltrán, a Congressional candidate in California, called the map “intentionally misleading.” The CDC didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Government Report Finds CDC’s Contact Tracing System for Air Travelers ‘Outdated’ --The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is relying on an outdated system for its contact tracing for air travelers that impedes its ability to monitor public health risks, according to a new report from the nonpartisan congressional watchdog agency. The way the CDC collects and manages airline passenger information – including the use of a data management system that was developed in the mid-2000s – hinders the agency’s ability to contact trace, the Government Accountability Office report found. The report described contact tracing as the “process of identifying and notifying passengers who may have come into contact with a person infected with a communicable disease during a flight.” It found that, for example, the CDC is unable to “quickly and accurately identify the number of passengers exposed to a specific infected passenger on a flight.” “Consequently, CDC is not positioned to efficiently analyze and disseminate data to inform public health policies and respond to disease threats,” the report said. “Nor is it positioned to evaluate its performance in collecting and sharing quality passenger information.” Exacerbating these long-standing challenges was the COVID-19 pandemic, the report found. The pandemic underscored how interconnected the world has become and how modern travel can quicken the spread of diseases. CDC officials said that the number of flights requiring contact tracing in 2020 increased more than 10,000% from 2019. “The ability of public health authorities to quickly contact potentially exposed passengers to advise them on post-exposure actions, such as testing or quarantining, is critical to stopping the chain of disease transmission,” the report said. “Inaccurate or incomplete contact information may delay or even preclude notifying an exposed passenger, potentially leading to broader community spread of a disease.”
Biden administration’s continuation of Trump border wall will destroy Friendship Park, a historical site -Biden administration’s continuation of Trump border wall will destroy Friendship Park, a historical site Max Jones a day ago Despite having campaigned on the false promise not to build “one more inch of wall,” the Biden administration’s Homeland Security Secretary, Alejandro Mayorkas, has recently announced dozens of border wall projects, including building additional walls along the southwest border of the United States. The move has blatantly exposed the Democrats’ support of barbaric border policies that are a continuation of Trump’s border wall. Among the projects approved to continue, the construction of the border wall includes plans to construct two 30-foot walls across Friendship Park in San Diego which could begin in a few weeks, according to statements made to NBC News by Pedro Rios, director of the American Friends Service Committee. Friendship Park is a historical site in both the United States and Mexico that was constructed as a symbol of “binational unity.” Ever since its creation, Friendship Park has been used as a location for workers and families on opposite sides of the border to see each other and spend time together, although its very creation was bound up with the increased crackdown on migrants and the building of a militarized border. Families who could once move across the border freely were now under increased border laws and regulation. The demarcation of the border line at Friendship Park was arbitrary until 1994 when the Clinton administration installed an iron mesh fence across San Diego County’s border with Mexico, as well as immigration courts, as part of “Operation Gatekeeper.” This barrier greatly changed the dynamics of Friendship Park, making anything other than very limited physical contact impossible, although oral and visual communication was still possible. This policy was taken to a more extreme level when a system of double border walls was constructed through Friendship Park under the Obama administration between 2009 and 2011, after the federal government seized land from the State of California though eminent domain, according to the People’s Tribune. Due to design concessions in order to enable Friendship Park to still serve some of its function, visitors were still able to see each other through a system of gates during limited visiting hours dictated by border security. The new plans unveiled by the Department of Homeland Security to continue Trump’s border wall in San Diego essentially render the park obsolete, since they do not include any gate or mechanism that would enable people to see each other across the border in Friendship Park, according to Assistant Chief of San Diego Border Patrol Alfonso Martinez and Imperial Beach Station Chief Justin De La Torre. John Fanestil, an advocate of the park, told KPBS, “This latest announcement really amounts to the complete desecration of this historic location.” Pedro Rios, director of the American Friends Service Committee’s U.S./Mexico Border Program told the San Diego Union Tribune, “What was clear was there had been no contemplation about public access to the site. ... For us that meant the legacy of Friendship Park where families and visitors have gathered for decades would essentially be terminated. It would be done with.”
Scamsters Posing as ICE Officials Are Defrauding U.S. Families of Asylum Seekers - On April 5, Mariana was at her usual spot on a Miami sidewalk selling hot dogs and grilled corn when her phone rang. She did not recognize the 1-800 number, and the caller said he was an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) official named Marcos Cruz. He knew Mariana’s name, as well as the names of two of her nephews, brothers who had fled Nicaragua. Cruz knew they were being held at the Stewart Detention Center in rural Georgia. He said that a judge had granted her nephews a bond of $3,900. If she paid it, they would be set free the following day. The call was an answer to her prayers. Mariana had agonized over the fate of her nephews since they had arrived at the U.S. border seeking asylum. They had left Nicaragua fearing persecution for participating in protests and marches against Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, a fear that escalated after a relative was murdered and the nephews learned their names were on a paramilitary group’s list of targets. Along the way, they were kidnapped by the Gulf Cartel in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, and held for three days until their guide had made payments for their release. They had told Mariana of rough treatment at Stewart, which one media report recently identified as the deadliest immigration jail in the county. Cruz asked if her nephews had an attorney. Mariana confirmed that they did and gave him the number she had for the lawyer’s office. Minutes later, she got a call from what appeared to be that number. The caller identified himself as attorney Joseph Giardina and confirmed the good news about the bond. A few minutes later, Cruz sent Mariana what appeared to be two court documents, each emblazoned with the logo of the Department of Homeland Security, that showed the bond amount and Cruz’s application to suspend the deportation. Later, the man identifying himself as Giardina called again. He told Mariana that because of the pandemic, ICE was accepting bond payments only through its office in Los Angeles via money transfer services such as Western Union. Mariana scrambled to come up with the money, and within an hour she had borrowed $4,000 from two friends. Mariana’s husband and daughter sent two payments of $1,950 through Western Union and Ria Money Transfer to an individual named Alejandra Moreno, whom she had been told was an ICE attorney in Los Angeles. Mariana called her sister in Nicaragua and shared the news: her sons were on the cusp of being released. Her sister, who was recovering from a serious COVID infection, also broke down in tears. At home, Mariana waited for an update. She had been told that her nephews would be on a 6:30 a.m. flight the next day to Miami. As the hours passed, she tried calling Cruz but didn’t hear back. Growing increasingly worried, she contacted an assistant she knew at Giardina and Guevara Law Firm, located in Baton Rouge, and asked why there was a delay in purchasing the plane tickets. The assistant had no idea what she was talking about. She passed along the purported court documents and explained that she had spoken to Giardina and an ICE official named Cruz. Once Giardina saw the documents he knew who was behind the scam. Several months earlier the same “Marcos Cruz” had successfully targeted the relative of a previous client, a Brazilian asylum seeker held in a detention center in Louisiana. As he explained that Mariana had been defrauded, she broke down again. Mariana was only the most recent victim of a wide-ranging scam that has targeted the relatives of detained immigrants across at least five states. Since January, Capital & Main has interviewed more than a dozen family members and detainees targeted by Cruz, collected fraudulent court records, and listened to recordings of WhatsApp messages and phone calls of Cruz and his associate.
Hispanic journalists organization responds to Jill Biden: ‘We are not tacos’ - The National Association of Hispanic Journalists (NAHJ) responded on Monday to a much-criticized comment by first lady Jill Biden calling the Latino community “as unique as the breakfast tacos here in San Antonio,” saying that the remark was culturally inappropriate. “We are not tacos,” wrote the NAHJ in a statement criticizing Biden. “NAHJ encourages Dr. Biden and her speech writing team to take the time in the future to better understand the complexities of our people and communities,” the group added.
Army General Suspended Over Tweet To Jill Biden: "Glad You Finally Know What A Woman Is" --A three-star general had his military contract suspended and is now being investigated over a tweet sent to first lady Jill Biden which appeared to mock her and the administration in the wake of the overturning of Roe v. Wade.Retired Lt. Gen. Gary Volesky is the Army's former top spokesman, but while in retirement he recently signed a contract with the Army to command the Combined Arms Center and advise active duty officers. He's being investigated for the below now-deleted tweet: "For nearly 50 years, women have had the right to make our own decisions about our bodies. Today, that right was stolen from us," Jill Biden's initial tweet said. Gen. Volesky responded using his personal Twitter account, "Glad to see you finally know what a woman is."The tweet was sent on June 24, and Volesky later deleted it without explanation or apology, with USA Today revealing the investigation for the first time Saturday."A retired three-star general has been suspended from a $92-an-hour contract consulting the Army and is under investigation after posting a tweet that appeared to mock first lady Jill Biden on a hot-button social issue, according to the Army," the report said.
White House fires back at 'out of step' activists fuming over Biden's response to abortion ruling - The White House is blasting progressives who "have been consistently out of step" with the Democratic Party amid criticism that President Biden’s response to the overturning of Roe v. Wade has been too little, too late.The White House defended Biden’s handling of the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned the constitutional right to an abortion on June 24, while progressive Democrats have called for a number of responses, including packing the Supreme Court, ending the Senate filibuster, declaring a public health emergency, and launching abortion clinics on federal property."Joe Biden’s goal in responding to Dobbs is not to satisfy some activists who have been consistently out of step with the mainstream of the Democratic Party," outgoing White House communications director Kate Bedingfield fired back in a statement Saturday. "It’s to deliver help to women who are in danger and assemble a broad-based coalition to defend a woman’s right to choose now, just as he assembled such a coalition to win during the 2020 campaign.""The president has been showing his deep outrage as an American and executing his bold plan — which is the product of months of hard work — ever since this decision was handed down," she said. While Bedingfield declined to name the activists, progressive Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., have called on the president to do more in the wake of the Dobbs decision.
‘Good. Now Declare It,’ Says Pressley as Biden Mulls Health Emergency for Abortion Rights - President Joe Biden confirmed Sunday that his administration is considering declaring a public health emergency to help protect abortion access as Republican-led states—unleashed by the U.S. Supreme Court—move swiftly to ban the procedure outright.Speaking to reporters, Biden said a public health emergency declaration is a step he’s asked “the medical people in the administration to look at.” Specifically, the president said he requested guidance on whether he has “the authority to do that and what impact that would have.”“Good,” responded Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), one of nearly two dozen Democratic lawmakers calling on the president to take the step, which proponents say would free up key federal resources and authorities needed for an all-of-government response to the right-wing assault on abortion care.“Now declare it,” Pressley added.Biden’s remarks came on the heels of Bloomberg reporting from just days earlier indicating that the administration had considered and “set aside” the idea of declaring a public health emergency over the erosion of abortion rights, concluding that “the impact wouldn’t justify an inevitable legal battle.”That calculation angered abortion rights advocates who argue the Biden administration should be doing everything in its power to shield abortion access as state-level GOP lawmakers push ahead with total abortion bans, no longer constrained by the constitutional protections afforded under the newly struck-down Roe v. Wade decision.“The president is actively choosing inaction,” tweeted Renee Bracey Sherman, executive director of We Testify, a group that represents people who have had abortions. “This is themoment to be bold and innovative. People need to see that they’re doing something, not just rejecting every idea that’s put in front of them.”On Friday, Biden signed an executive order directing federal health agencies to take steps to shore up access to medication abortion and emergency contraception in states where Republican lawmakers are activating draconian abortion bans, including dormant laws dating back to the 1800s.While progressive lawmakers and rights organizations welcomed the order as a positive first step, they urged the administration to go further as the White House resists more sweeping action anddismisses those demanding it as fringe activists.But demands for a public health emergency declaration are hardly emanating solely from outside the mainstream of the Democratic Party.In an op-ed for The New York Times a day after the U.S. Supreme Court handed down its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Tina Smith (D-Minn.) implored Biden to “declare a public health emergency to protect abortion access for all Americans, unlocking critical resources and authority that states and the federal government can use to meet the surge in demand for reproductive health services.”“The danger is real,” the senators wrote, “and Democrats must meet it with the urgency it deserves.”
Floating abortion clinic proposed in Gulf to bypass bans – (AP) — A California doctor is proposing a floating abortion clinic in the Gulf of Mexico as a way to maintain access for people in southern states where abortion bans have been enacted. The idea is to provide a clinic aboard a ship in federal waters, and out of reach of state laws, that would offer first trimester surgical abortions, contraception and other care, said Dr. Meg Autry, an obstetrician and gynecologist and a professor at the University of California San Francisco. “There’s been an assault on reproductive rights in our country and I’m a lifelong advocate for reproductive health and choice. We have to create options and be thoughtful and creative to help people in restrictive states get the health care they deserve,” she told The Associated Press. Autry said the idea is only in the fundraising stage through the non-profit, “PRROWESS” — short for “Protecting Reproductive Rights Of Women Endangered by State Statutes.” The proposal comes as abortion access in the southern United States has been swiftly curtailed after the U.S. Supreme Court turned the issue of abortion back to the states. Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas have had abortion bans take effect. A Florida law, which is in effect after a legal back-and-forth, prohibits abortions after 15 weeks, with exceptions if the procedure is necessary to save a life, prevent serious injury or if the fetus has a fatal abnormality. Autry said their legal team believes there is a swath of federal water where licensed providers could safely and legally provide abortions out of reach of state laws. For women in southern states with abortion bans, going to the coast and boarding a boat may be closer and easier than trying to travel to a state where abortion remains legal, she said.
So much for states’ rights: Republicans target out-of-state abortions --Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito probably hoped to get credit for softening the blow when, at the stroke of his virtual pen, he issued an opinion depriving every woman in the U.S. of the constitutional right to abortion. He repeatedly insisted in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization that the decision overruling the court’s 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade did nothing more than “return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives” in each state, some of which would presumably continue to recognize the right to terminate a pregnancy. Justice Brett Kavanaugh went further in his solo concurrence, maintaining that the “constitutional right to interstate travel” would enable women to “travel to another state to obtain an abortion.”Red state Republicans have other ideas, as they eagerly plot to circumvent pro-choice legislation in blue or purple states. Modeled after Texas’s “bounty-hunter” law, a bill introduced in Missouri would authorize private citizens to recover $10,000 in damages from those – including friends, family members and doctors – who assist a Missouri resident in obtaining an abortion out of state.In Texas, the “Freedom Caucus” has threatened employers with “criminal liability” if they proceed with plans to cover employees’ travel expenses for out-of-state abortions, invoking a 1925 statute making it a felony to “furnish the means for procuring an abortion knowing the purpose intended.”That is only the beginning. As the Washington Post reported, anti-abortion organizations are working on model legislation that would stop women from obtaining out-of-state abortions. “Just because you jump across a state line doesn’t mean your home state doesn’t have jurisdiction,” said Peter Breen, senior counsel for the Thomas More Society. At a conference of the National Association of Christian Lawmakers, Okla. state Rep. Todd Russ spoke in favor of preventing women from obtaining abortions across state lines. “If somebody was driving the getaway car in a bank robbery,” he cautioned, “it is a very, very serious crime.” Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life, put it more bluntly. “Look, if you travel out of state for an abortion, that abortionist can be held liable.”The Dobbs decision may not, as Alito rationalized, simply allow “each State to regulate abortion as its citizens wish.” We may instead be headed toward years of interstate battles, in which the reddest states attempt to extend the reach of their extreme anti-abortion statutes beyond their borders, penalizing the exercise of reproductive choice even in states where women’s right to abortion is protected by law. There is a troubling historical precedent for extending laws into unwilling states. In 1850, the southern states prevailed on the U.S. Congress to enact an enhanced Fugitive Slave Act, requiring the free states to return alleged fugitives to enslavers without the benefit of a jury trial, appeal or other essential features of due process. Worse, the Fugitive Slave Act dragooned free state citizens into assisting slave hunters on pain of fine or imprisonment if they refused or interfered.
HHS: Pharmacists can’t deny patients legally prescribed abortion drugs - The Biden administration on Wednesday said retail pharmacies and pharmacists must provide patients with the medication they were legally prescribed even if it could be used in an abortion. The guidance to about 60,000 retail pharmacies from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) comes amid reports of pharmacists turning away women seeking abortion medication, or even medication used primarily to treat other ailments but that can cause abortions. “The Department is committed to improving maternal health—including for individuals who experience miscarriages—and vigorous enforcement of our civil rights laws is one way in which we plan to do so,” the guidance stated. Senior HHS officials said civil rights laws, including provisions of the Affordable Care Act, require pharmacists and pharmacies that receive federal funding to supply prescribed medication. This can include mifepristone, used in combination with misoprostol, to assist with a first-trimester miscarriage. Those drugs are also used in medication abortion, which is now illegal in some states in the aftermath of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. In another example, the agency said pharmacists must dispense methotrexate, a common drug used to treat rheumatoid arthritis or other autoimmune conditions. The drug is also used off-label to end ectopic pregnancies. If the pharmacy refuses to fill the individual’s prescription or does not stock methotrexate because of its alternate uses, it could be violating the patient’s civil rights, officials said. “HHS is making a very bright line here on federal law,” a senior agency official told reporters. “This is meant to remind folks of their obligation when they take federal funding and to remind folks of obligations under federal civil rights laws.”
Congress faces climate roadblock after Supreme Court ruling - - The Supreme Court’s landmark climate decision is expected to reverberate far beyond the walls of EPA — and possibly all the way up to Capitol Hill. A number of legal observers say the justices’ 6-3 ruling last month in West Virginia v. EPA — which provides a first look at how the court’s new conservative supermajority will handle climate cases — clips agency authority and, perhaps more significantly, constrains how lawmakers can address planet-warming emissions. “The most dangerous aspect of the court’s decision is the court’s seizure of power from Congress, not from the agency,” Georgetown University law professor Lisa Heinzerling said at a recent Georgetown Climate Center event. “Under the opinion, Congress may no longer enlist an agency’s help in addressing major issues — as it has done throughout U.S. history — unless it speaks clearly enough for a hostile Supreme Court to hear it.” Heinzerling, who worked at EPA under former President Barack Obama, and other environmental attorneys said the court’s opinion in West Virginia creates a supremely high barrier for Congress, which has never passed substantial climate legislation. Of particular concern is the court’s conclusion that EPA violated the “major questions” doctrine when it finalized a sweeping regulation in 2015 to curb greenhouse gas emissions from power plants (Greenwire, June 30). The doctrine states that Congress has to clearly delegate power for an agency to act on “major” rules that are politically and economically significant. EPA — the court’s conservative majority held — had failed that test in the Clean Power Plan by creating a regulation requiring existing power plants to shift from fossil fuel-based energy to renewables. In writing the regulation, the Obama-era EPA relied on a rarely used section of the 1970 Clean Air Act, and environmental attorneys said the Supreme Court’s rejection of that approach poses a dilemma for federal agencies looking to address emerging problems. “The court repeatedly says that Congress has to be more clear and more specific, but the problem there is that agencies often need flexibility, so you don’t want to have very particularized language,” Georgetown law professor William Buzbee said at the climate center event. “To pass laws, compromise is often needed, and sometimes broader language is a way for Congress to pass laws. So the decision hamstrings agencies and actually makes it harder for Congress.”
Left Wing Group Offers 'Bounties' In Exchange For Doxxing Conservative Justices - A left wing activist group is offering cash rewards to anyone who provides them with information regarding the location of conservative Supreme Court Justices.The group ShutDownDC put out a call on Twitter offering $50 and $200 bounties for information relating to sightings of justices John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh, Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, and Amy Coney Barrett.Despite seemingly breaking Twitter’s policy of prohibiting any user from encouraging or calling for others to harass an individual or group of people, the post remains active at time of writing: DC Service Industry Workers... If you see Kavanaugh, Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, Coney Barrett or Roberts DM us with the details! We'll venmo you $50 for a confirmed sighting and $200 if they're still there 30 mins after your message. https://t.co/xXWZ5JZiE7— ShutDownDC (@ShutDown_DC) July 8, 2022Twitter’s policy reads, “We prohibit behavior that encourages others to harass or target specific individuals or groups with abusive behavior,” also noting “This includes, but is not limited to; calls to target people with abuse or harassment online and behavior that urges offline action such as physical harassment.”ShutDownDC affiliated individuals were also part of a ‘protest’ at a Morton’s steakhouse in downtown Washington last week, where Brett Kavanaugh was dining and subsequently forced to exit through a back door.The restaurant issued a statement condemning the actions, noting “Honorable Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh and all of our other patrons at the restaurant were unduly harassed by unruly protestors while eating dinner at our Morton’s restaurant.”It added, “Politics, regardless of your side or views, should not trample the freedom at play of the right to congregate and eat dinner. There is a time and place for everything. Disturbing the dinner of all of our customers was an act of selfishness and void of decency.”
Pro-Bernie Sanders group launches campaign urging Biden not to run for reelection -A progressive grassroots organization that supported Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) 2016 and 2020 White House bids announced on Monday that it will launch a campaign to oppose President Biden’s reelection in 2024.RootsAction wrote in a press release that Biden has been “neither bold nor inspiring” since taking office early last year. And because his “prospects for winning re-election appear to be bleak,” it will launch the #DontRunJoe campaign on Nov. 9, one day after the midterm elections.“In 2024 the United States will face the dual imperatives of preventing a Republican takeover of the White House and advancing a truly progressive agenda. The stakes could not be higher,” RootsAction wrote in the release. “The threat of a neofascist GOP has become all too obvious. Bold and inspiring leadership from the Oval Office will be essential.”“With so much at stake, making [Biden] the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer in 2024 would be a tragic mistake,” the progressive group added.Since taking office last year, Biden has struggled with a cascading series of crises, from supply chain disruptions and high inflation to a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Supreme Court overturning the nearly 50-year-old constitutional right to abortion.The president has also not heeded progressive calls on student loan debt and failed to pass a comprehensive federal voting rights bill into law, while his social spending and climate change package has stalled in Congress.
Doomsday midterm election scenario takes shape for Democrats - The midterm election doomsday scenario for Democrats is becoming clearer, scarier, and more real as inflation and gas prices remain stubbornly high and dissatisfaction with President Biden is through the roof. Democrats are seeing their chances of retaining the House slimmer than ever, with both history and the dreary political environment working against them. In the Senate, where the party had hoped strong swing state candidates could help save the majority, fears are also growing. It seems that wherever voters look, things are bad in Biden’s Washington — and getting worse. “Democrats haven’t done things they promised,” said Connor Farrell, a strategist who founded the progressive consultancy Left Rising. “In this environment, the best general election candidates will be bold [ones] that can distinguish themselves from what we’re getting from the White House.” The high national anxiety — which many lawmakers, operatives, and activists are now openly acknowledging as problematic — was further laid bare when a poll released by the New York Times found that just 13 percent of voters surveyed think the country is on the right path. More strikingly, 64 percent of Democratic voters want someone other than Biden as their nominee in 2024. Best Prime Day 2022 deals from BestReviews: Here are the best deals of Prime Day 2022 The top 15 deals under $100 Best Prime Day deals on electronics (laptops, headphones, TVs and more) The high prices of daily essentials, a gloomy appraisal of what’s happening around the country, and the prospect of more impending losses are leaving Democrats more concerned than ever about their odds in November. “Democratic leadership should look no further than the fact that they need to wake up and step up to the plate,” said Jon Reinish, managing director at the political strategy firm Mercury. While the idea that Democrats need to brace for a potential fall wipeout is not new, Monday’s poll highlights a trend that many see as particularly damning — a majority of registered Democratic voters are not happy with the overall direction of the U.S. under Biden’s leadership and they are not on board with another four years of it. Sixty-three percent of Democrats polled said the country is headed in the wrong direction, while only 27 percent said it is on the right track. “They’re not just losing Independents or you know, Never-Trump Republicans,” said Reinish, referencing two blocs that helped Biden establish a diverse coalition in 2020. “They’re losing their own voters. Democrats’ own voters don’t feel as if their leaders hear their concerns.”
Man accused of threatening to kill Jayapal outside her home -- A man has been arrested for threatening to kill Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), prosecutors in Washington state confirmed to The Hill. The man was arrested near the Seattle home of the lawmaker, who leads the Congressional Progressive Caucus.A probable cause certificate states that officers responding to a disturbance spotted the suspect, Brett Forsell, standing in the street with his hands in the air and a handgun holstered on his waist on Saturday night. An officer said in the statement that a neighbor told them that they heard the suspect yell, “Go back to India, I’m going to kill you” and saw Forsell’s vehicle drive by Jayapal’s residence about three times while he yelled profanities. Forsell said after he was read his Miranda rights that he knew Jayapal, who is Indian, lived at the residence and wanted to pitch a tent on the property, according to the probable cause statement. The King County Prosecuting Attorney’s Office said in a statement that a judge set bail for Forsell at $500,000, similar to other cases for armed threats to kill and hate crimes. The judge denied the office’s request for a criminal harassment protection order for Jayapal.
There are too many mass shootings for the U.S. media to cover -News companies are facing an agonizing challenge in a year that has already seen, by one count, more than 320 mass shootings across the United States: deciding which atrocities warrant on-the-ground coverage and which don’t.“There have been too many nights like this. Too many nights when I’ve stood at crime scenes like this,” NBC “Nightly News” anchor Lester Holt told viewers Tuesday from Highland Park, Ill. He flew there a day after an attack at a Fourth of July parade killed seven and wounded dozens.But Holt was providing on-the-ground coverage of only the deadliest of14 mass shootings that took place over the holiday weekend, according to a tally by the Gun Violence Archive. At least 62 people were shot and 10 killed in Chicago alone, not counting the parade massacre about 30 miles outside the city.“There is no checklist, per se, as to whether we go or don’t go,” Holt told The Washington Post. When news alerts about the Highland Park shooting interrupted his holiday, he recounted, “the circumstances alone — a suburban July Fourth parade — immediately signaled this would be a major story. As the news unfolded, it became clear we needed to be on the ground.”Many journalists have a similar triage process: prioritizing shootings based partly on death tolls, partly on a subjective sense of horror and shock. Inevitably, that means most do not end up receiving significant national coverage.Reporters went en masse to Buffalo when 10 were killed at a grocery store in May in an attack that targeted Black people; and then to Uvalde, Tex., when 21 were killed at an elementary school less than two weeks later. But a June 4 shooting that killed three and injured around a dozen in Philadelphia’s entertainment district received significantly less attention from the national press, as did an attack that left three dead and many injured at a Chattanooga, Tenn., nightclub the next day.“I think there are moments when it’s kind of like a collective earthquake,” said Wendy Fisher, an executive who oversees newsgathering for ABC News, which sent reporters to Buffalo, Uvalde and Highland Park. “You feel these events. They are very shocking. They have particular characteristics. It’s not so much a numbers thing. It’s kind of like: Where did they happen? When did they happen? The randomness of them. … It’s really the kind of collective shock factor.”There is no universal definition of a mass shooting. The Gun Violence Archive counts any incident in which four or more people are shot or killed, not including the attacker. The benchmark to deploy Washington Post reporters to an incident is usually four deaths or more, according to Amanda Erickson, a deputy America editor on the National desk. She said editors monitor social media and local news for early reports, then decide on a coverage plan based on the size and nature of the incident. The Post can normally get a reporter to the scene within 90 minutes.
J6 Committee Says Cipollone "Did Not Contradict" Hutchinson but Sources Say He was Not Asked - by Jonathan Turley - There is a new controversy over the alleged bias of the J6 Committee and the extreme measures used to avoid alternative or conflicting accounts. On Friday, Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), a member of the House select committee, declared that former Trump White House counsel Pat Cipollone” did not contradict” the testimony of previous witnesses like Cassidy Hutchinson.However, the New York Times is reporting that he was not asked about statements that the Committee knew he would contradict.The controversy comes at a time when the head of the Oath Keepers has offered to testify, an extraordinary move since he is facing criminal charges. However, he has one big demand: it must be live and in public. In other words, it cannot be edited or tailored by the Committee.Lofgren told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer “Mr. Cipollone did appear voluntarily and answer a whole variety of questions. He did not contradict the testimony of other witnesses. And I think we did learn a few things, which we will be rolling out in the hearings to come.” The problem is how such information has been “rolled out” in a committee with no dissenting or Republican-appointed members. Many of us support the effort to bring greater transparency to what occurred on Jan. 6th and these hearings have offered a great deal of important new information. Indeed, it has proven gut-wrenching in the accounts of lawyers and staff trying to combat baseless theories and to protect the constitutional process.Yet, the heavy-handed approach to framing the evidence has been both unnecessary and at times counterproductive. The strength of some of this evidence would not have been diminished by a more balanced committee or investigation. One of the most persistent problems has been the failure of any member to raise opposing views or contradicting points. That issue is now whether the reason that Cipollone did not contradict the testimony of Hutchison was that he was not asked about points of disagreement. Here is what the New York Times reported: [embed] That does not mean that Cipollone did not confirm much of the prior accounts including the refusal of former President Trump to recognize the lack of credible evidence of systemic voter fraud or the dubious basis for challenging the certification of the election. I am not particularly alarmed by this contradiction, even it is in fact a contradiction. Rather, it highlights a process that continues to be more persuasive rather than investigative in presenting testimony. The contradictions with Hutchinson are important after other witnesses contested her account on a key point of her testimony.
Cheney says Trump’s team has changed Jan. 6 strategy to blame the ‘crazies’ -- Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) on Tuesday said individuals in former President Trump’s orbit have recently changed their strategy when dealing with the Jan. 6 select committee, opting to blame the “crazies” in Trump’s orbit for his actions. During her opening statement at Tuesday’s public hearing, Cheney said witnesses and lawyers connected to Trump have gone from denying arguments and delaying proceedings to blaming outside advisers for Trump’s conduct — a plan that she labeled “nonsense.” The Wyoming Republican’s comments came after the committee established that individuals in Trump’s orbit were aware that the 2020 presidential election was not stolen. “We have covered significant ground over the past several weeks, and we have also seen a change in how witnesses and lawyers in the Trump orbit approach this committee,” Cheney said. “Initially, their strategy in some cases appeared to be to deny and delay,” Cheney said. “Today, there appears to be a general recognition that the committee has established key facts, including that virtually everyone close to President Trump — his justice department officials, his White House advisers, his White House counsel, his campaign — all told him the 2020 election was not stolen,” she added. During previous hearings, the committee has presented testimony from figures in Trump’s inner circle calling his claims of election fraud baseless. Notably, the panel showed testimony from former Attorney General William Barr labeling Trump’s claims of election fraud “bullshit.” Cheney, who serves as the vice chairwoman of the panel, said those close to Trump now seem to be arguing that the president “was manipulated by others outside the administration, that he was persuaded to ignore his closest advisers and that he was incapable of telling right from wrong.” She specifically called out three individuals witnesses have sought to blame for Trump’s conduct: conservative lawyer John Eastman, former Trump campaign lawyer Sidney Powell and Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.). “In this version, the president was quote ‘poorly served’ by these outside advisers. The strategy is to blame people his advisers called quote ‘the crazies’ for what Donald Trump did. This, of course, is nonsense,” Cheney said. “President Trump is a 76-year-old man. He is not an impressionable child. Just like everyone else in our country, he is responsible for his own actions and his own choices. As our investigation has shown, Donald Trump had access to more detailed and specific information showing that the election was not actually stolen than almost any other American. And he was told this over and over again. No rational or sane man in his position could disregard that information and reach the opposite conclusion. And Donald Trump cannot escape responsibility by being willfully blind,” she added.
Jan. 6 panel shifts focus to Trump ‘tweet heard around the world’ - The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol will turn its focus this week to former President Trump’s campaign to rally protesters to Washington, pointing to one tweet in particular as a pivotal moment in the violent effort to overturn his election defeat. “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!” Trump tweeted Dec. 19, 2020. That message, the investigators contend, acted as a shrewd battle cry to the far-right extremist groups and other supporters who were wrongly convinced the election had been “stolen” and viewed Jan. 6, 2021 — when Congress met to certify Joe Biden’s victory — as their last best chance to keep Trump in power. On Tuesday, lawmakers on the select committee will drill into the events both before and after the tweet, using their latest public hearing in the wide-ranging investigation to advance their case that Trump’s allies acted in cahoots with the violent extremists who would ultimately storm the Capitol. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who will help lead Tuesday’s hearing, noted that the tweet followed a Dec. 18, 2020, meeting at the White House where some of Trump’s closest allies pushed him to seize voting machines in key states. Trump ultimately decided against the idea, but as options dwindled to remain in power, he shifted gears to focus on a protest the day of the election certification — something online chatter shows Trump’s most zealous supporters took as a call to arms.
Oath Keepers brought grenades, rifles, “suitcases full of ammunition” to Washington D.C. on eve of January 6 - On Friday, US federal prosecutors filed a 28-page motion that includes new allegations against Oath Keeper leader Stewart Rhodes and his fascistic associates.The filing came as the House Select Committee charged with investigating ex-President Donald Trump’s failed coup prepared to hold its seventh and eighth televised hearings this week. The motion includes details about the planning and preparation for the coup, including weapons and materiel the accused allegedly brought to the Washington D.C. area. Items mentioned in the motion include semi-automatic rifles, grenades and tactical gear, such as combat helmets and axes. The motion also mentions that “suitcases filled with ammunition” were supplied to at least three separate “QRF” (Quick Reaction Force) teams that were stationed outside the capital, waiting to be deployed. Oath Keeper chapters from Florida, North Carolina and Arizona participated in forming and equipping the heavily armed QRF teams. Shattering claims by Trump, his Republican allies and complacent elements in the pseudo-left that the attack on the Capitol was a “spontaneous First Amendment demonstration” that “got out of hand,” prosecutors allege that on January 5, the Arizona Oath Keeper group arrived at the Virginia Hotel and “wheeled in bags and large bins of weapons, ammunition, and essential supplies to last 30 days.” The documents note that on the morning of January 6, Rhodes texted his minions: “We will have several well equipped QRFs outside DC. And there are many, many others, from other groups, who will be watching and waiting on the outside in case of worst case scenarios.” Following the failed coup, according to the court documents, Rhodes spent over $17,000 on gun parts and tactical equipment and summoned Oath Keepers to join him in Texas for a possible firefight with government agents if they attempted to arrest him.
Trump Again Lashes Out at Jan. 6 Committee as Panel Breaches His Inner Circle - Former President Donald Trump railed against the congressional committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol again on Tuesday, ahead of a hearing that’s expected to focus on his inner circle’s ties to far-right militia groups. Trump reiterated his claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, once again referring to the panel investigating the attack on the Capitol as “Political Hacks and Thugs” on his social media platform, while saying that the committee was “formed solely for the purpose of bringing down my ‘numbers,’ or worse.” “Isn’t it INCREDIBLE that the people who Cheated, Rigged, and Stole the 2020 Presidential Election, for which there is massive and incontestable evidence and proof… are totally protected from harm,” he wrote. “And the people that caught them cheating are being investigated. Someday soon this will change, or we won’t have a Country anymore!” The baseless allegations of widespread election fraud come hours before the seventh in a series of hearings from the committee investigating Trump’s connection to the events of Jan. 6, on the heels of breakthrough testimony from former White House counsel Pat Cipollone and the announcement of another key player's potential willingness to be questioned under oath – former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. The influx of possible new information from and about Trump’s inner circle came after a surprise testimony late last month from Cassidy Hutchinson, who worked for former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, and provided the committee with the most compelling evidence it’s shared to date. Among other details, Hutchinson gave a behind-the-scenes view of what transpired at the White House on the days leading up to Jan. 6, at one point explaining how Cipollone had warned that “we’re going to get charged with every crime imaginable” if Trump marched on the Capitol. On Tuesday, Trump likewise targeted Hutchinson in his pre-hearing posts, calling her a “female scam artist.” Meanwhile, Trump praised a recent decision from the Wisconsin Supreme Court to disallow the use of most ballot drop boxes, saying the boxes are “impossible to control” and “easy to cheat with.”
Jan. 6 Committee Details ‘Unhinged’ Meeting at the White House and the Trump Tweet That ‘Summoned an Angry Mob’ - The congressional committee investigating the attack on the Capitol painted a picture Tuesday of how – as door after door closed on President Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election and even his White House staff understood that he had lost – Trump embraced ever more fantastical conspiracy theories peddled by fringe actors and ultimately took matters into his own hands with a single tweet that would “unleash a political firestorm.” “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th,” Trump wrote. “Be there, will be wild!” On the heels of stunning testimony last week, the select committee delivered an intimate look into the days leading to the violent attack on the Capitol, as the panel appeared to be positioning itself – with just one hearing likely remaining – to link Trump’s moves in those final days to the eventual violence and extremism that would be seen at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Through seven hearings to date, the committee’s findings have creeped inexorably closer to the former president himself, with GOP Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming dramatically ending Tuesday’s session with the disclosure that Trump tried to call a witness, who declined to answer. Cheney explained that the committee “will take any effort to influence witness testimony very seriously.” For his part, Trump himself appears to be growing increasingly rattled as the committee pierces his inner circle. The committee spent much of the hearing detailing a Dec. 18, 2020, meeting at the White House described as “the craziest meeting of the Trump presidency” – one that lasted more than six hours, spanned multiple rooms and inspired screams heard by those nearby. Characterizing the scene in which Trump had been joined by members of his staff and outside advisers, the committee described a heated confrontation between those who seemed to understand that no more lawful avenues existed with regard to the election and others who continued to insist they would find evidence. “You have heard considerable testimony about President Trump's attempts to corruptly pressure Vice President Pence to refuse to count electoral votes, to corrupt the Department of Justice, to pressure state officials and state legislatures and to create and submit a series of fake electoral slates,” Rep. Stephanie Murphy of Florida said. “Now, we will show you what other actions President Trump was taking between Dec. 14, 2020, and Jan. 6.” Through taped interviews on Tuesday, the committee showed how by Dec. 14, when the Electoral College met and certified the results of the 2020 presidential election, those within Trump’s inner circle, including Attorney General William Barr, spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany, adviser Ivanka Trump and White House counsel Pat Cipollone, accepted that the president’s attempt to stay in office was over.
John Bolton says he’s been involved in planning coups: ‘It takes a lot of work’ -Former Trump national security adviser John Bolton said during an appearance on CNN that he has helped plan coups in other countries while arguing that former President Trump’s actions leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack did not amount to a coup attempt.Bolton told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Tuesday that Trump’s actions to overturn the election results were indefensible but added that the former president was a “disturbance in the force” rather than a leader of an “attack on our democracy.”Bolton said he disagrees with the premise that Trump attempted a coup, which he said requires cunning and elaborate planning.“That’s not the way Donald Trump does things,” Bolton said. “It’s rambling from one … idea to another, one plan that falls through, and another comes up.” “As somebody who has helped plan coup d’état, not here but other places, it takes a lot of work, and that’s not what he did,” Bolton added. He said Trump did “unleash” the rioters on the Capitol, but it was not to overthrow the Constitution and instead was to give himself more time to challenge the results in state legislatures. Tapper later pressed Bolton to clarify what he was referencing in his comment about having planned coups. Bolton cited a failed 2019 Venezuelan coup attempt against President Nicolás Maduro, though he added that the U.S. government did not have “much to do with” it. Protesters took to the streets in late April of that year to force Maduro from power, led by National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó, whom the U.S. still recognizes as the interim president, even though the putsch was unsuccessful.“The notion that Donald Trump was half as competent as the Venezuelan opposition is laughable,” Bolton said. The former United Nations ambassador also said if anyone thinks Trump has higher aims than delaying the election certification, “you’re going to overreact, and I think that’s a real risk for the committee, which has done a lot of good work.” Bolton has served in multiple positions over the years in the administrations of former Presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush and Trump.
Ivana Trump, Donald Trump's first wife, dies at age 73 - - Ivana Trump, the first wife of former President Donald Trump whose high profile marriage was only eclipsed by a scandalous divorce, died Thursday afternoon at her Manhattan apartment. She was 73. Police responded to a call of a person in cardiac arrest at 10 East 64th Street on the Upper East Side at 12:40 p.m., and police sources said Ivana Trump was found unconscious and unresponsive at the bottom of a set of stairs. The police are investigating whether she fell and, if so, whether the fall contributed in any way to her death, the sources said. The New York City Medical Examiner's Office will investigate to determine the cause and manner of death. The Trump family released a statement confirming her death. "It is with deep sadness that we announce the passing of our beloved mother, Ivana Trump," it read. "Our mother was an incredible woman -- a force in business, a world-class athlete, a radiant beauty, and caring mother and friend. Ivana Trump was a survivor. She fled from communism and embraced this country. She taught her children about grit and toughness, compassion and determination. She will be dearly missed by her mother, her three children and ten grandchildren." Ivana Trump married Donald Trump in 1977, and though at times she appeared to be overshadowed by her celebrity husband, she was very much one half of the 1980s power couple, serving by his side in the Trump Organization as vice president for interior design. She also managed the Plaza Hotel, one of the family's top properties. "I am very saddened to inform all of those that loved her, of which there are many, that Ivana Trump has passed away at her home in New York City," Donald Trump posted on Truth Social. "She was a wonderful, beautiful, and amazing woman, who led a great and inspirational life. Her pride and joy were her three children, Donald Jr., Ivanka, and Eric. She was so proud of them, as we were all so proud of her. Rest In Peace, Ivana!"
Ivana Trump Died From Blunt Force Trauma, Medical Examiner Rules - Ivana Trump, Donald Trump’s first wife, died from “blunt impact injuries of torso,” the New York City medical examiner announced Friday.The 73-year-old was found dead Thursday afternoon at the bottom of the staircase of her Manhattan home. Her death has been ruled an “accident,” the NYC Office of Chief Medical Examiner said in a statement.A spokesperson for the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner confirmed to The Daily Beast that she died as the result of a fall.The revelation comes after a close friend said the Trump matriarch couldn’t walk and struggled to leave her house in the weeks that preceded her death. Zach Erdem, who declined an interview but confirmed previous comments to the New York Post, said Trump had a hip issue that limited her ability to walk. He added that the former model “was feeling bad” the last time he spoke to her two weeks ago. “She said she was having pain in her leg,” he told the paper. ”She couldn’t get out of her house.”Erdem owns and operates a popular Southampton restaurant, 75 Main, that Trump and other big names—such as Joe and Jill Biden—frequented on trips to the Hamptons. When Erdem insisted Trump visit a doctor, he says the former model responded: “No, I hate going to doctors. I get more sick going to doctors.” Trump was spotted out and about the night before she was found dead. The Daily Mail reported she dined at her “favorite Italian” restaurant, Altesi's—located just a few blocks from her home—and was “in good spirits,” the eatery’s owner said.
Secret Service Responds to Graphic Hunter Biden Photos, Videos --The Secret Service confirmed Monday that it is aware of reports that the contents of Hunter Biden’s iCloud account were hacked over the weekend, exposing alleged texts, pictures, and videos of the president’s son doing drugs and engaging in other salacious and likely illegal activities.4chan users claimed they hacked Biden’s phone late Saturday night, posting pictures to the website’s main political forum, according to the Washington Examiner. Many of the posts were taken down by the website.The Secret Service said they are “aware” of the “social media posts and claims” about Biden, but are not in position to “make public comments on potential investigative actions,” in a statement to National Review.One video purports to show Biden measuring the amount of crack he had while in conversation with a prostitute.Another alleged video shows Biden going down a water slide naked, and texts allegedly revealed show Biden claiming that President Joe Biden was in possession of five guns in 2019, despite campaigning on gun control.Many of the files posted by 4chan were already found on Biden’s abandoned laptop via an iPhone XS backup, according to the Washington Examiner.Former Secret Service agent and cyber forensics expert Konstantinos “Gus” Dimitrelos previously told the outlet that the contents of the iPhone are authentic.“Based on my analysis of the iPhone, I conclude the same results as my analysis of the MacBook Pro Laptop hard drive and iCloud synced data. The person who owns and operates this iPhone XS is Robert Hunter Biden,” Dimitrelos said, according to the outlet.The abandoned laptop also previously revealed that the president knew about his son’s business dealing with China, despite repeatedly claiming that he has “never spoken” to him “about his overseas business dealings.” Joe Biden left a voicemail on Hunter Biden’s phone after a New York Times released a story in 2018 about the first son’s business dealings with the Chinese oil giant China Energy Company Limited (CEFC), the Daily Mail first reported. “Hey pal, it’s Dad. It’s 8:15 on Wednesday night. If you get a chance just give me a call. Nothing urgent. I just wanted to talk to you,” the president reportedly said. “I thought the article released online, it’s going to be printed tomorrow in the Times, was good. I think you’re clear. And anyway if you get a chance give me a call, I love you,” he added.
Here's What 4Chan Found After Hacking Into Hunter Biden's iCloud - Hunter Biden's iCloud account has allegedly been hacked, after 4chan users figured out his password and went to town - subsequently uploading some 450GB of materials to 'torrent' servers and telegram for anyone to access. There's a lot of porn and crack use. The contents of the leak, which have not been verified - yet which bear a striking resemblance to authenticated materials found on Hunter's abandoned laptop - contain some interesting revelations, and dozens, if not hundreds of videos.
BankThink: Supreme Court climate change decision raises ‘major questions’ for financial regulation | American Banker - Much of the reporting about the Supreme Court’s recent decision in West Virginia v. EPA has focused on what it means for the ability of the Environmental Protection Agency and other environmental agencies to address climate change. The court’s decision, however, has broad implications for other regulatory agencies, including the financial regulators.In its decision, the court formalizes a rule of statutory construction that it calls the “major questions doctrine.” Under this doctrine, administrative agencies must be able to point to clear congressional authorization in extraordinary cases when they claim to make decisions of vast economic and political significance. The court creates a two-part test to examine: 1) whether the history and breadth of the authority exercised by an agency that results in a broad societal impact is such that a court should hesitate before concluding that Congress really meant to confer such broad authority and 2) whether Congress did provide clear authorization. A merely plausible textual basis for the agency action in this context is not sufficient under the doctrine. The decision provides some general interpretive guidance for the application of the doctrine, but leaves much interpretation to the courts.Inferring congressional intent is always a difficult exercise for the courts. Congress is a collective body and lawmakers have their own individual reasons for voting for or against a proposal. To interpret congressional intent from the absence of legislative action is even more perilous. Justice Scalia once wrote that “we should admit that vindication by congressional inaction is a canard,” yet the court establishes this as the foundation of its new doctrine.The court’s far-reaching effort to place limits on regulatory action is likely to raise serious issues regarding future financial regulation. The odds that actions by a financial regulator could be challenged or invalidated under the doctrine, as happened to the EPA, are best examined across a spectrum.On one end of the spectrum are regulatory actions where statutes provide a high level of detail or there is a history of congressional involvement. For example, many of the actions taken by financial regulators to avert economic disaster could have been challenged or even invalidated under the major questions doctrine if that had been the controlling legal standard in 2008. Facing the collapse of the financial system, Treasury’s use of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, the Federal Reserve’s use of its Section 13(3) authority and the FDIC’s use of the systemic risk exception to create the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program all involved novel or expansive interpretations of long dormant or newly interpreted statutory authority.Yet, it was Congress, not the courts, that determined the agencies had overreached and significantly restricted or restructured how these programs would work in future crises through the Dodd-Frank Act and other legislation. In responding to the COVID-19 crisis, Congress and the regulatory agencies revived many of these powers in their amended form as the government attempted to lessen the impact of government shutdowns and declining economic activity. The specific statutory changes and the continued interaction with Congress to fine tune statutory authority would seem to exemplify the type of regulatory action backed by congressional authorization that the court seems to favor and should insulate at least these emergency powers from future challenge under the court’s new doctrine.
Republicans threaten Wall Street over climate positions - Republican officials across the country, tearing a page from the ongoing culture wars, are launching a broad assault on the movement by big financial firms to use their economic power to curb climate change and address other politically sensitive national issues. 10 steps you can take to lower your carbon footprint In recent years, big finance companies have used their clout to advance causes that are popular among liberals. The giant asset manager BlackRock, for instance, has voted against the candidacies of hundreds of corporate board members over their lackluster records on climate issues and called climate change “a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects.” JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank, has stopped lending to new coal mines or coal-fired power plants. Even though the positions don’t satisfy many left-leaning activists, GOP officials are intensifying their counteroffensive, attacking the campaigns — often referred to as “environmental-social-governance,” or ESG — by threatening to retaliate against financial firms for their positions on the climate and other issues, including firearms sales. “@BlackRock is using its massive size to drive up the price of gas & weaken national security—all so BlackRock’s rich executives can feel better about themselves,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) wrote on Twitter last month. “The next Congress is going to take on this collusive racket.” State officials are moving more swiftly. This spring, Kentucky lawmakers voted to empower state officials to stop doing business with any firm that says it won’t invest in fossil fuels. The move drew praise from other Republican officials, although the state hasn’t penalized a firm yet. “Kentucky joins our growing coalition of states that have taken concrete steps to push back against the woke capitalists who are trying to destroy our energy industries,” West Virginia Treasurer Riley Moore said after Kentucky adopted the legislation.
CFPB creates oversight office to deal with congressional requests - An onslaught of inquiries expected from Republican lawmakers next year has prompted Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra to create a new office devoted solely to responding to congressional probes. In an internal memo to staff on Tuesday, Deputy CFPB Director Zixta Q. Martinez announced a ramping-up of hiring for the bureau’s newly created Office of Oversight and a separate strategy team and a realignment of the bureau’s legal and student loan offices. Martinez told CFPB staff that the bureau’s legal division will be split into two offices with all current staff remaining in the litigation office. Meanwhile, the bureau is ramping up hiring for the oversight office. “The CFPB operates within a dynamic environment, and right now signs point to increased oversight activity in the coming years,” Martinez wrote in a memo to staff. “Adding a group of staff dedicated to responding to these sorts of oversight inquiries will ensure staff can remain focused on their work while CFPB remains responsive to our oversight responsibilities. “ Republican lawmakers have made clear that they intend to investigate Chopra for his role as the alleged architect of a “hostile takeover” of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. late last year. In December, Martin Gruenberg, now the FDIC’s acting chair, and Chopra, an FDIC board member, announced that the board's three-member Democratic majority at the time had launched a review of bank merger policy without the support of then-FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams. The brouhaha sent shock waves through the Capitol. McWilliams resigned from the FDIC on Feb. 4, after claiming the majority had threatened her leadership.
From $10 billion to zero: How a crypto hedge fund collapsed and dragged many investors down with it -- As recently as March, Three Arrows Capital managed about $10 billion in assets, making it one of the most prominent crypto hedge funds in the world. Now the firm, also known as 3AC, is headed to bankruptcy court after the plunge in cryptocurrency prices and a particularly risky trading strategy combined to wipe out its assets and leave it unable to repay lenders. The chain of pain may just be beginning. 3AC had a lengthy list of counterparties, or companies that had their money wrapped up in the firm's ability to at least stay afloat. With the crypto market down by more than $1 trillion since April, led by the slide in bitcoin and ethereum, investors with concentrated bets on firms like 3AC are suffering the consequences. Crypto exchange Blockchain.com reportedly faces a $270 million hit on loans to 3AC. Meanwhile, digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after 3AC couldn't pay back the roughly $670 million it had borrowed from the company. U.S.-based crypto lenders Genesis and BlockFi, crypto derivatives platform BitMEX and crypto exchange FTX are also being hit with losses. "Credit is being destroyed and withdrawn, underwriting standards are being tightened, solvency is being tested, so everyone is withdrawing liquidity from crypto lenders," said Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, which focuses on blockchain investments. Three Arrows' strategy involved borrowing money from across the industry and then turning around and investing that capital in other, often nascent, crypto projects. The firm had been around for a decade, which helped give founders Zhu Su and Kyle Davies a measure of credibility in an industry populated by newbies. Zhu also co-hosted a popular podcast on crypto. "3AC was supposed to be the adult in the room," said Nik Bhatia, a professor of finance and business economics at the University of Southern California. Court documents reviewed by CNBC show that lawyers representing 3AC's creditors claim that Zhu and Davies have not yet begun to cooperate with them "in any meaningful manner." The filing also alleges that the liquidation process hasn't started, meaning there's no cash to pay back the company's lenders.
Founders of bankrupt crypto hedge fund 3AC go missing, as investors try to recoup assets - The co-founders of failed crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital appear to be on the run from creditors, according to court documents recently filed in New York. Lawyers representing the creditors say the physical whereabouts of Zhu Su and Kyle Davies, who started Three Arrows in 2012, are "currently unknown," ahead of a hearing that is scheduled for 9 a.m. ET on Tuesday to discuss next steps in the liquidation process. The documents, filed Friday evening, also allege that the founders have not yet begun to cooperate with the liquidation process "in any meaningful manner." On Monday, lawyers requested the court keep the identity of the creditors anonymous. Zhu and Davies did not respond to requests for comment. Three Arrows, also known as 3AC, managed about $10 billion in assets as recently as March. On July 1, the firm filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection from U.S. creditors in the Southern District of New York, after a plunge in cryptocurrencies and the collapse of the terraUSD (UST) stablecoin project wiped out its assets. Prior to the bankruptcy filing, a court in the British Virgin Islands ordered the beleaguered fund to liquidate in order to pay back its debts. Now, 3AC is in bankruptcy court, facing angry lenders who want their money back. Global advisory firm Teneo was hired to help manage the liquidation, starting with trying to determine what was left. According to Friday's court filing, Zhu and Davies, both former traders for Credit Suisse, participated in an introductory Zoom call last week to discuss basic steps to preserve their assets. Neither founder turned on his video, and both remained muted for the duration, with all dialogue conducted through counsel. Their lawyers said at the time that they "intended to cooperate." During the meeting, representatives helping to facilitate the liquidation requested immediate access to 3AC's offices and to information related to their bank accounts and digital wallets. As of Friday, that access had not been granted, the filing says. When the fund's liquidators previously arrived at 3AC's Singapore office in late June in an attempt to meet with the founders, "the offices appeared vacant except for a number of inactive computer screens." The filing notes that while the office door was locked, the representatives could view unopened mail addressed to Three Arrows, which "appeared to have been pushed under the door or propped against the door." Neighbors in surrounding offices said they had last seen people in the 3AC office in early June.
New York judge freezes assets of Three Arrows Capital as crypto firm's founders remain underground - A federal judge in a New York bankruptcy court has frozen the remaining assets of crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital following the firm's rapid fall from prominence. The fund, founded nearly a decade ago, managed $10 billion in assets just a few months ago. Now, its two co-founders are in hiding from angry creditors, who are trying to recoup some of their losses. Prior to the bankruptcy filing, a court in the British Virgin Islands ordered the beleaguered fund to liquidate in order to pay back its debts. Judge Martin Glenn of the Southern District of New York granted the emergency motion on Tuesday to freeze Three Arrows' assets. CNBC joined a court hearing, which covered next steps in the bankruptcy process. Glenn noted in the written decision that only the assigned bankruptcy liquidators have the authority to "transfer, encumber or otherwise dispose of any assets of the Debtor located within the territorial jurisdiction of the United States." As part of Glenn's ruling, global advisory firm Teneo, which was assigned to manage the liquidation, was also granted permission to subpoena Three Arrows co-founders Zhu Su and Kyle Davies, as well as banks, crypto exchanges and other institutions and firms that have done business with the firm. VIDEO02:42 Why the collapse of Celsius may not be a total shock, but is still putting a chill over the entire crypto market The chief concern is that Three Arrows, also known as 3AC, and its leadership team might be siphoning funds ahead of the formal liquidation. Coindesk reported that Zhu is looking to sell his $35 million Singapore property, and there are reports of at least one other digital asset transfer of a non-fungible token held by the fund. "A key part of this motion is to put the world on notice that it is the liquidators that are controlling the debtor's assets at this stage," Adam Goldberg, an attorney representing Teneo, said in Tuesday's hearing. Zhu and Davies didn't respond to requests for comment. Their lawyer, Christopher Anand Daniel of Singapore-based Advocatus Law, also didn't respond to CNBC's request for comment. Goldberg, of law firm Latham & Watkins, said liquidators are looking for documents such as account statements and digital wallet information. A main reason for the aggressive action is that the physical whereabouts of Zhu and Davies are "currently unknown," according to lawyers representing the creditors. The creditors also allege that liquidators in Singapore found that 3AC's offices were vacant, save for a few inactive computer screens. But after a nearly month-long hiatus from Twitter, Zhu broke his silence on Twitter early Tuesday, writing that the firm's efforts to cooperate with creditors had been met with "baiting." From his verified account, Zhu shared screengrabs of emails sent by his lawyer to counsel representing liquidators. In those messages, the attorney wrote that the families of the co-founders "have received threats of physical violence." He also said Zhu and Davies have been "working under a lot of time pressure," noting that they "had to field queries from the Monetary Authority of Singapore in the last week."
Crypto: confirmed casino - Remember when retail brokerages and wealth managers got into crypto?Noted Tesla bulls at Gerber Kawasaki caught the early 2021 bitcoin price peak.Wisdom Tree and Ritholtz Wealth Management, when they partnered to create a crypto index late last year, may have top-ticked the entire market. Then USwealth-management giant Fidelity jumped on the bandwagon last April, when bitcoin was down nearly 20 per cent for the year but still trading above $35,000. It has since fallen below $21,000.Presumably, these institutions decided to let people YOLO their retirement cash into cryptocurrency for the potential diversification benefits. But a recent study from the Swiss Finance Institute bursts that bubble. A pair of academics — Luciano Somoza and Antoine Didisheim of the University of Lausanne — analysed data from a random sample of customers of Swissquote, one of the few regulated banks that also offers crypto-trading services. Of the 77,364 active accounts they studied, about 21 per cent traded cryptocurrency.Their findings help explain why the correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin prices looks like this:In short, they argue that cryptocurrency and stock prices have been highly correlated because risk-hungry retail punters have been trading stocks and cryptocurrencies together.The academics found that the trend started “suddenly” in the early days of the pandemic in 2020, when the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 jumped from zero to nearly 60 per cent.Somoza and Didisheim attribute this to retail traders’ stimulus cheques — though Alphaville can’t help but notice that the jump in retail trading happened right when gamblers’ usual arenas were limited, with casinos closed and most sporting events cancelled.No matter the reasoning, the crypto traders captured by the survey do appear to be the gambling sort:. . . looking at the stocks favoured by agents who hold cryptocurrencies, we observe a strong preference for growth stocks and speculative assets. When agents open a cryptocurrency wallet, their overall portfolio becomes riskier, with higher annualised returns which comes at the expense of volatility aggregating into a significantly lower Sharpe Ratio (-10.23 per cent, annualised).The academics also found that the stocks most favoured by crypto traders tend to be the most correlated with crypto prices. So these investors are either buying both crypto and speculative stocks at once, or selling both at once.When these traders opened crypto wallets, they started checking their brokerage accounts much more often.Also entertaining is that these investors traded stocks less often when they opened a crypto wallet, so the performance of their non-crypto portfolios improved. Of course, if we assume that 1) frequent trading is bad for an individual investor’s performance and 2) people who crave hitting a little financial-risk button are more likely to open a cryptocurrency account, that outcome makes sense. If investors get their volatility fix from crypto, there’s less need to YOLO into selling puts on Gamestop.
Celsius's failure shows the importance of reading the small print - By Frances Coppola - The crypto lender Celsius has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. This should come as a surprise to absolutely no-one, though the grief and pain on Twitter and Reddit suggests that quite a few "Celsians" didn't want to believe what was staring them in the face. Celsius suspended withdrawals nearly a month ago. So far, every crypto lender that has suspended withdrawals has turned out to be insolvent. There was no reason to suppose that Celsius would be different. Celsius's bankruptcy filing says the company has assets of $1 - 10 bn and a similar quantity of liabilities: This doesn't tell us much about the extent of the company's insolvency. But rumours have been circulating of a $2bn hole in its balance sheet. In May, according to Coindesk, the company said it had $12bn of what Celsius calls "customer assets" and Coindesk calls "assets under management", and $8bn lent out to clients. So "assets under management" seem to have fallen by $2bn. Could this be the missing $2bn?No, it couldn't. It's the wrong side of the balance sheet. What Celsius calls "customer assets" are its own liabilities. And here I must take issue with the wholly wrong and downright misleading terminology used both by Celsius itself and by journalists, including Financial Times journalists who really should know better. Celsius is not an asset manager, it's a shadow bank. And deposits in banks aren't even "customer assets", let alone "assets under management". They are unsecured loans to the bank. They are thus liabilities of the bank and fully at risk in bankruptcy. Depositors in a bank do not have any legal right to return of their funds. Even if the terms of the account say funds can be withdrawn whenever the customer chooses, the bank can refuse to allow customers to withdraw their funds if it doesn't have the cash to pay them. Closing the doors is the traditional way of stopping a bank run. Celsius, like other crypto lenders that have suffered bank runs since Three Arrows Capital collapsed, closed its doors to stop customers withdrawing their funds. If it hadn't, it would have run out of money. Furthermore, if the bank goes bankrupt depositors are only entitled to a share of the residual assets after all secured and senior claims (such as unpaid taxes and loans from central banks) have been met. This is why licensed banks have deposit insurance. And this is also why, in 2008, government chose to recapitalize banks, including unlicensed shadow banks. If they hadn't, millions of depositors would have lost some or all of their money. Celsius's terms of use make it completely clear that customers who deposit funds in Celsius's interest-bearing accounts are lending their funds to Celsius to do with as it pleases. And it specifically says that in the event of bankruptcy, customers might not get all - or indeed any - of their money back. You'd think that in the crypto Wild West of all places, where "caveat emptor" rules and fools deserve to lose their shirts, people would read the small print, wouldn't you?Not only are customer deposits fully at risk in bankruptcy, collateral pledged against borrowing from Celsius is too. The above excerpt from Celsius's terms of use says that title to the collateral passes to Celsius. So you haven't pledged collateral to Celsius, you've sold it a bunch of crypto. Celsius is fully entitled to lend out the crypto you have sold to it. If it does, and it is unable to recover it, then you won't be able to repurchase your crypto. Anecdotally, I have heard of several instances of people being unable to recover their crypto even when they have repaid the loan. But again, they should have read the small print. They no more have the right to return of their collateral than depositors do to return of their funds.
Toomey says investments in private equity and crypto could lead to security in retirement - Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) argued Wednesday that current investment rules preclude many average Americans from having a diversified portfolio, creating a barrier to achieving financial success in retirement. A recent Gallup poll found that 63 percent of respondents are worried about having enough money for retirement, marking the first time since 2016 that number has exceeded 6 in 10. Toomey argued for diversifying portfolios and investing in private equity, which could lead more Americans to financial security in retirement, he said at The Hill’s “Securing America’s Retirement” event. However, the current system often prevents people with defined contribution plans, such as 401(k)s, from investing in a variety of asset classes. Toomey took the opportunity to highlight his Retirement Savings Modernization Act, which the Pennsylvania Republican said he hopes to introduce when he finds a Democratic sponsor. He said the legislation would make it possible for more Americans to take advantage of the high returns that coincide with investing in private equity. “For most Americans, their wealth is tied up in their home, which that’s not something you trade. But the other big category is retirement savings, so for me this is just a really, really important part of allowing ordinary Americans to have a better life and a comfortable retirement,” Toomey, who serves on the Senate Finance Committee, said at the event. The bill would ensure that asset managers behind defined contribution plans are not breaking the rules if they invest in other asset classes, such as private equity, which would diversify the average American’s investment portfolio. “You make it clear that an asset manager would not be violating their fiduciary obligations solely by virtue of investing in alternative asset classes. All the other fiduciary obligations still apply. You still have the diversity requirements, you still have all the prudential requirements there, but you don’t systematically exclude this enormous category,” Toomey said at the event, which was sponsored by American Investment Council.
‘What legislative process?’ Government stays on sidelines of crypto meltdown — The nation’s top financial regulators and lawmakers continue to show little urgency in regulating the crypto sector despite the industry’s ongoing historic meltdown and persistent oversight gaps, analysts say. Early in 2022, the Biden administration appeared eager to bring regulatory certainty and much-needed oversight to the cryptosphere. In March, the White House issued a first-of-its-kind executive order on cryptocurrency and other digital assets, calling on federal agencies to “play a leading role in international engagement and global governance of digital assets consistent with democratic values and U.S. global competitiveness.”That order followed on a separate report issued in Nov. 2021, when the President's Working Group on Financial Markets urged Congress to pass legislation that would limit the issuance of stablecoins to banks. The administration said it intended to rein in the cryptocurrency markets, but neither the White House nor Congress has made much progress in enacting meaningful policy changes.But in the months since, the government’s policy progression has slowed, even as far-reaching volatility in the crypto sector has cleaved as much as $2 trillion in value from the industry.Analysts watching the federal government for signs of life in crypto policy say they have become increasingly frustrated by both the Biden administration and Congress’s lack of focus on the sector, which they say continues to pose risks to consumers and the broader financial system. “The surprising part, for me, is the lack of urgency in the wake of the crypto winter we’re in at the moment and the real damage to real people who have lost money,” said Isaac Boltansky, managing director at BTIG. “It has harmed individuals, investors and families. There have been real implications. But there wasn’t a financial stability incident as a result, and D.C. seems kind of sanguine about it.” A white paper outlining a framework for “interagency engagement with foreign counterparts” on digital assets, published by the Department of Treasury last week, emphasized the relative lack of action to some analysts. Margaret Tahyar, co-head of Davis Polk’s financial institutions group, described the document on LinkedIn as “underwhelming and disappointing.” “The crypto executive order was issued in March. It’s July,” Tahyar said in an interview. “Anybody could have written a two-page press release talking about how U.S. regulatory agencies are going to interact with their international counterparts 48 hours after that. It’s not bringing anything new to the table.” Congress, similarly, has shown little appetite for any organized legislative push to bolster new crypto regulations. A number of bills have been introduced in either the House or Senate in recent months, ranging from stablecoin-specific packages to broader digital-asset frameworks. But analysts see no legislation with serious support.
Dems cite 'disturbing' data on crypto, demand new rules - Democratic lawmakers today are renewing calls for federal agencies to force cryptocurrency mining firms to disclose their emissions and energy use, after an investigation revealed that major firms in the United States are using power on par with major cities. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and California Rep. Jared Huffman disclosed today that their inquiry into seven cryptocurrency mining firms operating in the United States showed that they use 1,045 megawatts, or the same capacity required by Houston, which has a population of 2.3 million people. Advertisement The lawmakers likewise revealed that the cryptomining process results in carbon emissions of at least 1.6 million tons annually and increases energy prices for other consumers. “The results of our investigation, which gathered data from just seven companies, are disturbing, with this limited data alone revealing that cryptominers are large energy users that account for a significant — and rapidly growing — amount of carbon emissions,” Warren and Huffman wrote in a letter to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and EPA Administrator Michael Regan. Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) also co-signed the missive. The lawmakers went on to press the Biden administration to use “all available authorities at your disposal,” including the Clean Air Act, to require cryptocurrency mining firms to disclose their emissions contributions and energy use. “Our investigation suggests that the overall U.S. cryptomining industry is likely to be problematic for energy and emissions. But little is known about the full scope of cryptomining activity,” the letter continued, noting that the seven firms reviewed are expected to increase their capacity by 230 percent in the near future, or enough additional energy to power a city of 1.9 million residences. Warren and others published the data collected from the cryptocurrency firms.Cryptocurrency mining typically involves high-powered computers that solve puzzles. It uses intense amounts of electricity. Crypto mining operations have often turned to coal and other fossil fuels to power their efforts (Greenwire, Jan. 18).The Energy Department did not immediately return a request for comment, but Granholm indicated earlier this year that she would be open to tracking the total number of cryptocurrency miners in the United States along with their energy use. EPA spokesperson Shayla Powell told E&E News: “We have received the letter and will respond through appropriate channels.” “It is critical to understand the strains upon the grid,” Granholm told Warren at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing in May (E&E Daily, May 20). Republican lawmakers, including House Financial Services ranking member Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) and Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), have urged EPA to hold back on implementing any restrictions on crypto mining, arguing that the industry’s economic benefits would be at risk (E&E Daily, June 22)
Why America Can’t Regulate Bitcoin -- Hearings on Bitcoin and its derivatives are being held in the USA on a regular basis, and invariably the expert witnesses fail to properly describe the actual processes going on. If they used the correct language and excluded all analogies, the only possible conclusion would be that America cannot regulate Bitcoin under its current legal system. The Constitution guarantees the inalienable rights of American citizens, and therefore Bitcoin is a protected by virtue of it being a form of publishing text. The only way Bitcoin can be made regulable is if the Constitution is changed; and that does not mean adding a new Amendment, it means removing the First Amendment entirely. Inevitably the anti-Bitcoin protagonists will face a robust and ultimately successful legal challenge that will remove the possibility of any sort of “BitLicense” or interference from the CTFC, FinCEN or any other agency. It will also remove any possibility of interference at the State level. The consequence of adhering to the basic law of the United States will cause America to become the centre of all Bitcoin business for the entire world, and will cause trillions of dollars worth of eCommerce to flow through the USA. Let me explain why this is the case.
Fintech execs convicted in U.S. after $160 million sent to Nigeria --The operators of a Texas payments firm with ties to the U.K. pleaded guilty in the U.S. to money laundering failures after their business facilitated the shipping of $160 million to Nigeria over about three years.Anslem Oshionebo, 45, and Opeyemi Odeyale, 43, received 27-month prison sentences for failing to maintain effective anti-money-laundering controls and unlicensed money transmitting, according to US legal filings. The Dallas-based company they owned and operated, Ping Express US LLC , faces five years of probation and a fine as high as $500,000 after pleading guilty to a similar charge, while another executive received a 42-month sentence, the Department of Justice said in a July 7 statement.Ping Express sent customers’ remittances to Nigeria, Kenya and other African nations. In one three-year period highlighted by the Justice Department, the firm failed to flag a single suspicious transaction to regulators despite processing a “significant amount” of them, though it filed a batch of reports later.One customer used the firm to move funds they made from fake-romance scams, with victims including a woman in Indiana who sent $15,000 to a supposed roughneck oil worker in the Gulf of Mexico, and another who sent $6,300 to a purported Irish sea captain, according to the Justice Department’s statement. Another customer moved more than $80,000 in a single month, far more than the company’s $4,500 limit, court filings show.“Having gone through a very painful three years of legal battle with a monstrous US DoJ, it was time to give in and move on,” Odeyale said in an emailed statement that claimed the case against him had “gross violations,” while he cited his track record with other businesses. “There is a lot of good I can do with the next two to three years than waste it in fighting an insurmountable foe.”Oshionebo said in an email that “history will be the best judge” but he did not have the resources to continue fighting the case.
Q2 2022 Update: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 52 Institutions; Search for "Whale" Continues - problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public. CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest. As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. NOTE: I'm no longer updating the spreadsheet. Here are the quarterly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List through June 30, 2022. Since the last update at the end of March 2022, the list decreased by two to 52 institutions after an addition and three removals. Assets decreased by $6.1 billion to $54.4 billion, with the change primarily resulting from a $6.1 billion decrease from updated asset figures through March 31, 2021. A year ago, the list held 65 institutions with assets of $51.8 billion. Added during the second quarter was St. Landry Bank and Trust Company, Opelousas, LA ($324 million). Removals during the quarter because of unassisted mergers included First National Bank of Muscatine, Muscatine, IA ($368 million); Lincoln 1st Bank, Lincoln Park, NJ ($261 million); and First National Bank in Fairfield, Fairfield, IA ($154 million).With the conclusion of the second quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,784 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 2.9 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,732 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,022 action terminations, 411 failures, 280 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 411 failures represent 23.1 percent of the 1,784 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list.On June 21, 2022, the FDIC released first quarter results and provided an update on the Official Problem Bank List. While FDIC did not make a comment within its press release on the Official Problem Bank List, they provided details in an attachment that listed 40 institutions with assets of $173 billion. The FDIC list had a material $119 billion increase in assets during the first quarter of 2022. None of the prudential banking regulators – FDIC, Federal Reserve, and OCC – have publicly released an enforcement action detailing the large institution added. The Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act (FIRREA) passed by Congress in 1989 requires publication of enforcement actions. The prudential regulator “may delay the publication of such order for a reasonable time.” The section does not define “a reasonable time.” It has been nearly six months since that enforcement action was issued, so it is unknown what constitutes “reasonable time.” Regulators still haven't disclosed the "whale" (that added close to $120 billion to problem assets).
Jamie Dimon battens down the hatches for a recession - JPMorgan Chase kicked off the second quarter earnings season with bad news: The bank temporarily suspended share buybacks and fell short of analysts' expectations for earnings and revenue growth. Profit declined 28% from a year earlier to $8.65 billion and the bank reported earnings of $2.76 per share versus the $2.88 expected by analysts. Managed revenue clocked in at $31.6 billion, missing the $31.95 billion expected, according to Refinitiv data. Large market swings hurt dealmaking this quarter, the bank reported. Investment-banking fees fell by 54%, more than the 47% predicted by analysts. Shares of JPMorgan's stock fell by about 3% in premarket trading on Thursday and are down 29% this year. JPMorgan (JPM) is the largest US bank by assets and its earning reports are used by investors and analysts as a bellwether for how Wall Street fared over the past three turbulent months for markets and the economy. CEO Jamie Dimon warned last month of an economic "hurricane" brewing and said that he was bracing himself for the impact of the Federal Reserve's tighter monetary policy and rising costs of food and fuel due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In a call with reporters on Thursday morning, Dimon said he hadn't changed his view on an upcoming recession. The Fed's efforts could lead to a soft landing or a hard landing, he said, but there's still a serious set of issues to contend with. "Rates are rising because of inflation, and in my view they'll go up more than people think," he said. "Quantitative tightening will reduce liquidity in global markets and stock prices are down a lot." Markets will remain volatile for the foreseeable future, Dimon said. Still, he appeared to soften some of his earlier predictions of foul weather. Consumers are still spending money, jobs are plentiful and wages are going up, Dimon said. "If we go into any recession, consumers are in good shape. If you spoke to businesses you'd hear CEOs say things are looking good, and I agree," he said.
Small-bank executives in near-universal agreement that recession is coming - Small-bank executives overwhelmingly think the U.S. economy will fall into a recession by 2023. In an online survey conducted June 21-30, a whopping 96% of community bank leaders said they expect an economic decline to strike by the end of this year or sometime next year. Thoughts about the timing of when a recession will hit were split evenly among the group, with 48% of bankers saying they think it will happen this year and 48% predicting it will be a 2023 event. Of the respondents who think a recession is approaching, 52% say the driving force will be an overcorrection by the Federal Reserve. The central bank is trying to tackle inflation, which rose by 8.6% in May, by raising borrowing rates, but some say the increases are too steep and coming too quickly. The near-universal agreement that a recession is looming means “bankers think the economy is in real trouble,” said Paul Weinstein, a senior advisor at the deposit services provider IntraFi Network, which conducted the survey of community bank CEOs, presidents, chief financial officers and chief operating officers. “There seems to be a lot of concern that the Fed is not handling this as best as it could, that it came in a little too late and might be moving a little too fast,” Weinstein said Tuesday. Bankers in recent months have been growing increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for the economy, in part because they don’t think the Fed will be able to keep the economy out of a recession. In June, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon forecast an economic “hurricane.” “Right now it’s kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this,” Dimon said at a conference. “[But] that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy or [Hurricane] Andrew.”
BofA fined $225 million for failing to rein in benefits fraud - Bank of America has been fined $225 million by federal regulators for botching the disbursement of state unemployment benefits and unlawfully freezing consumer accounts, particularly in California, at the height of the pandemic.The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency fined BofA $125 million for engaging in “unsafe or unsound practices” in distributing unemployment, disability and pandemic-relief benefits to consumers in 12 states through prepaid debit cards. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in a separate order fined the bank $100 million.The OCC and CFPB also ordered Bank of America to provide remediation and lump-sum payments to harmed consumers. The value of those additional payments is unclear.The $2.5 trillion-asset bank held contracts with a dozen states in 2020 to provide government benefits on prepaid debit cards. Massive fraud during the pandemic quickly overwhelmed state agencies, especially in California, where frantic consumers spent months trying to access benefits after being locked out of their accounts due to fraud. BofA has countered that the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program did not require upfront income or employment verification by state agencies. As a result, fraudsters were able to self-certify their eligibility to receive benefits in many states. “Bank of America partnered with our state clients to identify and fight fraud throughout the pandemic,” said BofA spokesman Bill Halldin. “This action arose despite the government’s own acknowledgement that the unemployment program expansion during the pandemic created unprecedented criminal activity where illegal applicants were able to get states to approve tens of billions of dollars in payments.”
Wall Street texting habit sticks banks with rare $1 billion bill -- Regulators are poised to extract about $1 billion in fines from the five biggest U.S. investment banks for failing to monitor employees using unauthorized messaging apps.Morgan Stanley disclosed on Thursday that it expects to pay a $200 million fine, the same amount JPMorgan Chase paid as authorities use that settlement as a yardstick for the industry. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America also have had advanced discussions with the regulators to each pay a similar figure, according to people with knowledge of the talks who asked not to be identified because the matter isn’t public. The discussions have not yet concluded and the penalties could still change.The grand total represents a rare escalation from regulators looking into such an issue, with fines tending to be significantly lower in the past. The sweeping civil probes rank among the largest-ever penalties levied against U.S. banks for record-keeping lapses, dwarfing a $15 million penalty imposed on Morgan Stanley in 2006 over its failure to preserve emails.Finance firms are required to scrupulously monitor communications involving their business to head off improper conduct. That system, already challenged by the proliferation of mobile-messaging apps, was strained further as firms sent workers home shortly after the start of the COVID-19 outbreak. In December, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission imposed $200 million in fines on JPMorgan, saying that even managing directors and other senior supervisors at the bank had skirted regulatory scrutiny by using services such as WhatsApp or personal email addresses for work-related communication.The probes spearheaded by the SEC and CFTC could net an even bigger haul, as the regulators have also sought information from other firms such as HSBC Holdings and Deutsche Bank. The German lender earlier this year reminded employees that deleting messages is forbidden and is rolling out new software on corporate mobile phones that archives WhatsApp messages, Bloomberg has reported. The members of the management board have also agreed to take a pay cut of about $80,000 each to take responsibility for the widespread use of texting and WhatsApp among staff.
CFPB sues payday lender Ace Cash Express - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is suing the payday lender Ace Cash Express, labeling it a “repeat offender” and claiming it funneled customers into costly reborrowing. The Irving, Texas, company also concealed free repayment plans from borrowers and withdrew money from borrowers’ bank accounts in violation of their contracts, the bureau said. “Deception and misdirection allowed Ace Cash Express to pocket hundreds of millions of dollars in reborrowing fees. … Today’s lawsuit is another example of the CFPB’s focus on holding repeat offenders accountable,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said Tuesday in a press release. Ace’s products included small-dollar payday and title loans. It primarily serves low-income borrowers who frequently refinance, roll over or extend their loans beyond the original repayment term. In 2018 the company was released from a consent order issued in 2002 by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency that prohibited it from partnering with national banks. This isn’t the first time the CFPB has sued Ace. A suit it filed against the lender in 2014 alleged that it lured borrowers into a “cycle of debt” through illegal debt-collection tactics and created a false sense of urgency to repay, according to a CFPB release published that year. The bureau claims that after it issued an enforcement action against the company in 2014, it switched tactics to encourage consumers to reborrow. It said on Tuesday that the company “is still bound by the order from that case.” In a statement, Ace said that it "vehemently disagrees with the CFPB's claims of deception, unfairness and abuse," noting that the CFPB's cited instances of improper withdrawals "relates to approximately 0.028% of ACE's loan transactions during the applicable time period" and that the firm had already "refunded over $670,000 to loan customers they will never be required to pay back."
Republicans urge FHFA to crack down on Fannie, Freddie activities — House Republicans called on the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency to bolster its oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, urging the regulator to take more steps to ensure the government-sponsored enterprises do not overstep their legal bounds. In a letter addressed to FHFA Director Sandra Thompson, Republicans led by Rep. French Hill of Arkansas suggested that the undercapitalization of Fannie and Freddie posed a considerable risk to the broader financial system. They also urged Thompson to prevent the GSEs from expanding into new areas of finance.Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “have a history of venturing into new activities and product offerings that go well beyond their congressionally approved roles in the secondary market,” the letter, sent July 7, said. “The FHFA must do more to ensure there is appropriate transparency regarding any new products or activities that the enterprises undertake and that these activities do not displace private firms or crowd out private capital.”The letter acknowledged that under Thompson, the FHFA has taken some steps to improve government oversight of the GSEs, including the creation of a pilot transparency framework. But the Republicans argued that more should be done. Representative French Hill, a Republican from Arkansas, left, speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in 2018. Photographer: Zach Gibson/Bloomberg“Simply requiring the enterprises to publish a list of their pilots and test-and-learn activities twice a year does not substitute for robust oversight by their conservator,” the Republican lawmakers wrote.
Foreclosure activity nears pre-pandemic pace - Foreclosure activity approached its pre-pandemic pace in the first half of 2022 and is likely to return to that mark by early next year, according to a new report from Attom Data Solutions.The real estate data intelligence provider found 164,581 properties across the U.S had foreclosure filings, such as default notices, scheduled auctions and repossessions, in the first six months of the year. The number is just 1% below what was recorded in the first half of 2020 when a federal moratorium on foreclosures was initially put into place to protect homeowners during the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared to the same time period last year while the moratorium was still in effect, foreclosure activity was up 153%.Foreclosure starts also experienced a 19% increase from early 2020 and a year-over-year uptick of 219% to total 117,383 properties. “While overall foreclosure activity is still running significantly below historic averages, the dramatic increase in foreclosure starts suggests that we may be back to normal levels by sometime in early 2023,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at Attom, in a press release.States seeing the greatest number of foreclosure starts in the first half of the year were California with 12,805, Florida at 11,448 and Tennessee with 10,970. Illinois and Ohio rounded out the leading five states at 8,411 and 6,987.But the swift rise in starts as well as other foreclosure filings shouldn’t be interpreted as a sign of current housing distress, Sharga said, noting that much of the increase comes from properties that were either already in foreclosure or more than 120 days delinquent prior to the pandemic. “Many of these loans were protected by the government’s foreclosure moratorium, or they would have a lready been foreclosed on two years ago,” he said. “There’s very little delinquency or default activity that’s truly new in the numbers we’re tracking.”
"This Recession Is Looking Like A Depression": Housing Market Craters As Sales Get Canceled At The Highest Rate On Record -One month after we observed that the June Redfin data found that as a result of soaring mortgage rates and record home unaffordability, price cuts for new listings had exploded amid a collapse in buyer demand... the newsflow from the frozen housing market has turned downright dismal, and according to the latest Redfin data, home sales are getting canceled at the highest rate since the start of the pandemic.
Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey— Mortgage applications decreased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 8, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Independence Day.... The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 80 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 14 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago."Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged, but applications declined for the second straight week. Purchase applications for both conventional and government loans continue to be weaker due to the combination of much higher mortgage rates and the worsening economic outlook,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “After reaching a record $460,000 in March 2022, the average purchase loan size was $415,000 last week, pulled lower by the potential moderation of home-price growth and weaker purchase activity at the upper end of the market.” “Refinance applications increased slightly last week, driven by an uptick in conventional and FHA refinances. The overall refinance index remained 5 percent below the average level reported in June. With the 30-year fixed rate 265 basis points higher than a year ago, refinance applications are expected to remain depressed.”... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) remained at 5.74 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Homebuilder Comments in June: “Someone turned out the lights on our sales in June!" --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Homebuilder Comments in June: “Someone turned out the lights on our sales in June!"" A brief excerpt:
Read these builder comments from around the country. Sales have declined sharply in June.
Some homebuilder comments courtesy of Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a must follow for housing on twitter!):
#Atlanta builder: “Someone turned out the lights on our sales in June!”
#Austin builder: “Sales have fallen off a cliff. We’re selling 1/3 of what we sold in March and April. Trades are more willing to negotiate pricing since market has adjusted significantly past 60 days.”
#Birmingham builder: “Sales have fallen 75% the last two months in a further out community.”
#Boise builder: “Sales have slowed tremendously. Builders are dropping prices and halting new starts. Seeing prices drop on labor due to slowing of home starts. Expecting 15% to 20% reduction in most costs.”
There many more comments in the article.
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Slight Gain In June" -- From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Hits 14-Year High With Slight Gain In June The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) increased less than one percentage point in June to 173.6 (2000=100) from the revised May reading of 173.1, pushing the measure to a 14-year high.The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning. The index is shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In June, the commercial component of the Momentum Index rose 4.1%, while the institutional component fell 6.2%.This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 173.6 in June, up from 173.1 in May.According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggested a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a solid pickup this year and into 2023.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up 2.9% Compared to Same Week in 2019 From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Performance Dips Ahead of Independence Day but Outpaces Pre-Pandemic Levels: U.S. hotel performance dipped from the previous week, while indexed comparisons against 2019 improved on the favorable side of a holiday calendar shift, according to STR‘s latest data through July 2. June 26 to July 2, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 67.3% (+2.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $153.32 (+19.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $103.24 (+23.1%)
Given historical trends, the week-over-week decline in demand was normal given the holiday. Since 2000, the Fourth of July or the observance of the holiday (federal holiday) has fallen on a Monday seven times, including last year and in 2016. In every case, occupancy in the week before the holiday fell by more than four percentage points with most of the losses beginning on Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. Occupancy and demand are likely to fall again for this current week before strengthening in the remaining weeks of July. *Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is at the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally over the next couple of months.
• Occupancy: 63.3% (-14.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $153.71 (+15.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $97.37 (-1.1%)
Whereas the previous week’s percentage changes were elevated on the favorable side of the calendar shift, the most recent week was skewed downward due to a comparison with a non-holiday week in 2019. After two consecutive weeks of lower demand around the Fourth of July holiday, the metrics are expected to strengthen for the remaining weeks of July.
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is at the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase further over the Summer.
Reis: Office Vacancy Rate Increased in Q2, Mall Vacancy Rate Unchanged - - From Moody’s Analytics Senior Economist Lu Chen: Apartment sets new record, Office continued its bumpy ride, and Retail stayed flat: Given the intriguing supply and demand dynamics, office vacancy trended up 30 bps and finished the2nd quarter at 18.4%, merely 10 bps lower than its pandemic high in Q2 2021. On the rent front, both asking and effective rents edged up 0.4% during the quarter – these are the highest growth rates since the pandemic began. . ... Our data shows the national vacancy for neighborhood and community shopping center has stayed flat at 10.3%, while asking rent is virtually unchanged and effective rent inched up 0.1% in the second quarter. Trend data on regional and super regional malls tells a similar story. Vacancy stayed flat at 11% and effective rent was up 0.1% this quarter. emphasis added Reis reported the office vacancy rate was at 18.4% in Q2 2022, up from 18.1% in Q1, and down from 18.5% in Q2 2021. Q2 2021 saw the highest vacancy rate for offices since the early '90s (following the S&L crisis) NOTE: This says nothing about how many people are in the offices (related to the increase in work-from-home), just whether or not the office space is leased. This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 1999 the data is annual). The office vacancy rate was elevated prior to the pandemic and moved up during the pandemic. Reis also reported that office effective rents were increased 0.4% in Q2; rents are about at the same as in early 2019. Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was 11.0% in Q2 2022, unchanged from 11.0% in Q1 2021, and down from 11.5% in Q2 2021. The regional mall vacancy rate peaked at 11.5% in Q2 2021. For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.3% in Q2, unchanged from 10.3% in Q1, and down from 10.6% in Q2 2021. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked during the pandemic at 10.6% in both Q1 and Q2 2021. This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). The regional mall data starts in 2000. Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising. This was due to the very loose commercial lending that led to the S&L crisis. In the mid-'00s, mall investment picked up as mall builders followed the "roof tops" of the residential boom (more loose lending). This led to the vacancy rate moving higher even before the recession started. Then there was a sharp increase in the vacancy rate during the recession and financial crisis. In the last several years, even prior to the pandemic, the regional mall vacancy rates increased significantly from an already elevated level. Effective rents have been mostly unchanged for regional malls over the last 3 years, and flat for strip malls for 5+ years.
Economist on pessimistic consumer sentiment: ‘I’ve never really seen anything like it’ - Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the June CPI data, inflation, the housing market, and the Fed's interest rate hike cycles.
Retail sales up 1% in June, easing fears of a recession (AP) — Consumers picked up their spending from May to June, underscoring their resilience despite painfully higher prices at the gas pump and in grocery aisles and allaying fears that the economy might be on the verge of a recession.U.S. retail sales rose 1% in June, from a revised decline of 0.1 % in May, the Commerce Department said Friday.The figures aren't adjusted for inflation and so largely reflect higher prices, particularly for gas. But they also show that consumers are still providing crucial support for the economy and spending on such discretionary items as furniture, restaurant meals and sporting goods.At the same time, last month's spending gain is modest enough that it likely won't encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively. Stock prices rose after the report’s release.“People did not fold in the face of the Ukraine shock and the subsequent surge in food and energy prices,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Instead, they ran down a small part of their pandemic savings in order to keep up their discretionary spending.”Consumers still have significant savings, on average, bolstered by pandemic-era government relief checks and strong hiring and pay gains.JPMorgan executives said Thursday that their customers are still breaking out their credit and debit cards at a healthy pace.Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said that excluding inflation, retail sales still rose about 0.3% in June, up from a contraction of 0.4% in May. She expects the economy to grow at a slim 0.5% annual rate in the April-June quarter, after shrinking in the first three months of the year.The report showed consumers' ongoing appetite for non-essentials like gadgets and furniture. In fact, sales at furniture stores rose 1.4%, while consumer electronics stores rose 0.4%. Online sales showed resurgence, posting a 2.2% increase. Business at restaurants was up 1%. But department stores took a hit, posting a 2.6% decline.The solid spending came even as shoppers were confronted with high prices in all areas. U.S. inflation surged to a new four-decade high in Junebecause of rising prices for gas, food and rent, squeezing household budgets and pressuring the Fed to raise rates aggressively — trends that raise the risk of a recession.The government’s consumer price index soared 9.1% in June compared with a year ago, the biggest yearly increase since 1981, with nearly half of the increase due to higher energy costs. The year-over-year leap in consumer prices last month followed an 8.6% annual jump in May. From May to June, prices rose 1.3%, following a 1% increase from April to May. Some economists believe inflation might be reaching a short-term peak. Gas prices, for example, have fallen from $5 a gallon reached in mid-June to an average of $4.57 nationwide Thursday — still far higher than a year ago.
Retail Sales Increased 1.0% in June -On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.0% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 8.4 percent from June 2021. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $680.6 billion,an increase of 1.0 percent from the previous month, and 8.4 percent above June 2021. ... The April 2022 to May 2022 percent change was revised from down 0.3 percent to down 0.1 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.7% in June.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 5.3% on a YoY basis.Sales in June were above expectations, and sales in April and May were revised up, combined.
Retail Sales Up 1% in June, Beats Forecast - The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for June was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 1.00% month-over-month to two decimals and was above the Investing.com forecast of 0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 1.04% MoM.Here is the introduction from today's report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $680.6 billion, an increase of 1.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 8.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above June 2021. Total sales for the April 2022 through June 2022 period were up 8.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2022 to May 2022 percent change was revised from down 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.1 percent (±0.3 percent)*.Retail trade sales were up 1.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from May 2022, and up 7.7 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 49.1 percent (±1.6 percent) from June 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 13.4 percent (±3.9 percent) from last year. [view full report] The chart below is a log-scale snapshot of retail sales since the early 1990s. The two exponential regressions through the data help us to evaluate the long-term trend of this key economic indicator.
Americans Not in the Mood for a Recession: Splurging on Goods, Flocking to Restaurants - By Wolf Richter -- Retail sales in June jumped by 1.0% from May, and by 8.4% from a year ago, and by 32.5% from June 2019, to $681 billion, seasonally adjusted, the Census Bureau reported today. Retail sales are sales of goods. Sales of services, such as insurance, healthcare, airline tickets, etc., are not included in retail sales. Ticket sales at the multiplex in the mall are not included in retail sales, but are services, and consumers have been shifting some spending back to services. And yet, consumers still splurged on goods. These folks are tough, when it comes to shopping. Nothing appears to be able to knock them down – not even the raging inflation. Inflation rages in services, food, gasoline; recedes in durable goods. Inflation is ricocheting around the economy. Where prices are now spiking are in services – but they’re not included in retail sales. And prices are spiking in nondurable goods, dominated by food, gasoline, and supplies. These nondurable goods are sold at various categories of retailers, such as grocery stores, gas stations, general merchandise stores that sell food, supplies, and gasoline, at some “miscellaneous stores,” such as cannabis stores. But wait… cannabis products are not in the CPI basket. But in durable goods, crazy-raging inflation of nearly 19% early this year has been abating and in June down to 8.4%. Retailers in that categories are stores that sell motor vehicles, auto parts, appliances, tools, electronics, furniture, etc. Sales by category of retailer, not adjusted for inflation. Sales at New and Used Vehicle and Parts Dealers, the largest category of retail sales, rose by 0.8% in June from May, to $128 billion, seasonally adjusted, and were unchanged from a year ago, but up 24% from June 2019, amid huge price increases in 2021 that are now flattening out. There was plenty of supply in used vehicles. But many new vehicle dealers were still woefully short on inventory, and consumers who want to purchase a vehicle are having to order it and wait for months. But unit sales are way down from a year ago for both new and used vehicles. The number of new vehicles delivered to end users in June plunged by 13.5% from the beaten-down June 2021, to 1.13 million vehicles, and by 25% from June 2019. The number of used vehicles delivered to retail customers in June fell by 13% year-over-year, according to Cox Automotive, as consumers are starting to rebel against the ridiculous price spike last year, and those price spikes have hit buyers’ resistance. Sales at ecommerce and other “nonstore retailers,” the second largest category of retail sales, jumped by 2.2% in June from May, to a record $105 billion, and were up 9.6% year-over-year and up by 68% from June 2019. This includes the ecommerce operations of brick-and-mortar retailers, along with sales at stalls and markets. The ecommerce boom continues:
Real-Time Card Data Reveals "Broad-Based Slowdown": Spending Growth Turns Negative For Low Income Households (12 graphs) After last month's disappointing retail sales, which confirmed what we already knew, namely that the US consumer was getting tapped out after maxing out credit cards in recent months, the latest total card spending per household, as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit cards, returned modestly to the green, rising 0.3% month-over-month (mom) in June on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prompting BofA economist Aditya Bhave to forecast a 0.4% mom increase in the Census Bureau’s ex-auto retail sales figure in June, and expects the core control group (retail sales ex auto, gas, building materials and restaurants) to increase by a below-consensus 0.1% mom. While the headline retail sales number may appear solid, since inflation remained solid-er in June, the card data suggest there is a risk that real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending declined for the second consecutive month. Which brings us to the next point: the latest BofA card spending data reveals a broad-based slowdown. As BofA notes, last month we were encouraged by the fact that services spending was picking up the slack as stay-at-home goods demand faded. Alas, the story for June is more concerning. Gas prices reached all-time highs in mid-June before easing off modestly through month-end. Gasoline spending rose another 4% in June and is up 20% over the last five months. This has started to take a toll on other categories of consumer spending, including services. In June, spending on travel and restaurants fell for the first time since January (when the Omicron wave peaked), while durable goods spending dropped for the fourth consecutive month. Worse, for the week ending July 2, airline, lodging and restaurant spending by lower-income households were all basically flat on a year-over-year (yoy) basis... ... and on a consolidated bases is now negative compared to 2021! What about the split between debit and credit card spending? BofA economists note that one common concern they hear is whether lower-income households with liquidity constraints are being forced to spend more on their credit cards because of inflation; while they claim they have not seen much evidence of this in the BAC card data, they admit that credit card spending has modestly outpaced debit card spending for lower-income cohorts over the last year.. ... even though debit card spending has grown much more relative to pre-pandemic levels, which of course is to be expected courtesy of trillions in stimmies which parked in various checking accounts (and has been mostly bled dry by now). What is more concerning is that as exhibit 21 shows, credit card usage among low income cohorts is declining, not because of increased frugality but because as we showed last week, after an explosive move higher in Q1 in credit card balances.. ... most American households are now maxed out and the "easy" sources of purchasing power are gone, which means the Biden admin will be hard pressed to come up with another major crisis that allows it to dispense with a few more trillion in stimmies to preserve social order and peace.
LA Port Traffic: Mostly Steady in June --Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 0.4% in June compared to the rolling 12 months ending in May. Outbound traffic was down 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 4% YoY in June, and exports were down 2% YoY. There is no impact - yet - on inbound traffic due to the shutdowns in China.
Inflation rate hit 9.1 percent annually in June -Inflation picked up speed in June after another surge in oil prices drove up costs throughout the economy, according to data released Wednesday by the Labor Department. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.3 percent in June and 9.1 percent over the past 12 months. Economists expected monthly inflation to hit roughly 1 percent in June after prices rose 1 percent in May, and 8.8 percent annually after reaching 8.6 percent that month. Annual inflation reached the highest rate in June since November 1981. While inflation has been rising steadily for more than a year, the war in Ukraine’s impact on global food, energy and commodity supplies has ramped up pressure on prices since the start of 2022. Much of the June increase in inflation came from a 11.2 percent rise in gasoline costs and a 1 percent increase in food prices over the past month, according to Labor Department data. A 7.5 monthly increase in energy prices drove nearly half of the total monthly increase in the CPI, the Labor Department said. Gasoline prices nationwide rose above $5 per gallon on average at the peak of June’s price climb, but fell off substantially in July. The White House, which has struggled to tame inflation and public concern with it, played down the CPI report as outdated ahead of its Wednesday release. Biden administration economic officials cited the July decline in gas prices and other signs of supply chain pressure easing throughout the economy as reason for optimism in a Tuesday memo to reporters. They also preemptively blamed the June inflation surge on Russian President Vladimir Putin and his nation’s quest to dominate Ukraine. “While today’s headline inflation reading is unacceptably high, it is also out-of-date,” Biden said in a statement Wednesday after the report was released. ” Today’s data does not reflect the full impact of nearly 30 days of decreases in gas prices, that have reduced the price at the pump by about 40 cents since mid-June. Those savings are providing important breathing room for American families. And, other commodities like wheat have fallen sharply since this report.” Even so, inflation without food and energy prices still rose 0.7 percent in June and 5.9 percent over the past 12 months, according to the Labor Department. The surge in core inflation far exceeded economists expectations and covered a large swath of the economy—including sectors largely unaffected by the war in Ukraine or sanctions imposed on Russia. “CPI delivered another shock, and as painful as June’s higher number is, equally as bad is the broadening sources of inflation. Though CPI’s spike is led by energy and food prices, which are largely global problems, prices continue to mount for domestic goods and services, from shelter to autos to apparel,” Prices for shelter, used cars and trucks, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, and new vehicles rose the most among non-food and energy items in June, the Labor Department reported. Only airline fares and hotel rates fell in June, though airline fares remain up 34.1 percent over the past year. Rising prices also took a serious bite out of household budgets in June. Average inflation-adjusted wages fell 1 percent in June alone when taking the 1.3 percent increase in the CPI out of a 0.3 percent increase in hourly earnings last month. Real wages are down a whopping 3.6 percent over the past 12 months after seasonal adjustments.
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.7% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.8% in June - The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.7% in June. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.8% in June. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Motor Fuel" increased at 251% annualized rate in June!Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up between 5% annualized in the Northeast and almost 12% in the South with an average of close to 9%. This is the pickup in OER that we've been expecting due to the increase in house prices and rents.This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 6.0%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 6.9%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 5.9%. Core PCE is for May and increased 4.7% year-over-year.
Early Look at 2023 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base -The BLS reported this morning:The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 9.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 292.542 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 1.6 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). In 2021, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 268.421. The 2021 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year.This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.Note: The year labeled is for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year). CPI-W was up 9.8% year-over-year in June, and although this is very early - we need the data for July, August and September - my very early guess is COLA will probably be over 9% this year - and COLA could be double digits - the largest increase since 11.2% in 1981. The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one-year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2021 yet, but wages probably increased again in 2021. If wages increased 4% in 2021, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $153,000 in 2023, from the current $147,000.Remember - this is a very early look. What matters is average CPI-W, NSA, for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).
Average gas price falls 19 cents to $4.86 per gallon (AP) — The average U.S. price of regular-grade gasoline plunged 19 cents over the past two weeks to $4.86 per gallon. Industry analyst Trilby Lundberg of the Lundberg Survey said Sunday that the continued decline comes as crude oil costs also fall. “Assuming oil prices do not shoot up from here, motorists may see prices drop another 10-20 cents as the oil price cuts continue making their way to street level,” Lundberg said in a statement. The average price at the pump is down 24 cents over the past month, but it’s $1.66 higher than it was one year ago. Nationwide, the highest average price for regular-grade gas was in the San Francisco Bay Area, at $6.14 per gallon. The lowest average was in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, at $4.19 per gallon. According to the survey, the average price of diesel dropped 13 cents since June 24 to $5.76 a gallon.
Large-scale Gasoline Demand Destruction Hits Sky-High Prices in Peak Driving Season: Gasoline Consumption Drops to July 1999 Level -- Wolf Richter - The spike in gasoline prices motivated Americans to go on buyers’ strike. The phenomenon of a price shock reducing demand for that product is called “demand destruction” in economics. It can reverse when the price falls to such a low level that demand returns. Demand destruction has now turned into a crescendo during peak driving season, including the 4th of July holiday weekend. In the week through July 8, gasoline consumption plunged by 9.7% to 8.73 million barrels per day, on a four-week moving average, according to EIA data. The EIA measures gasoline consumption in terms of barrels supplied to the market by refiners, blenders, etc., and not by retail sales at gas stations. This was the steepest decline yet so far this year. Consumption, compared to three years earlier, started dropping in January. At the time, the price was in the $3.30 range: Demand destruction weighs on price. The average price of gasoline, all grades combined, after spiking by 63% year-over-year to $5.00 a gallon on June 13, has now dipped for the fourth week in a row, to $4.65 as of Monday, according to EIA data. Between 2015 and 2021, the price ranged between $2 and $3 mostly. It was a shock to suddenly see $5. In lots of places, folks saw over $6 for regular. Summer driving season in the US means gasoline consumption surges, hitting high points around the 4th of July week and then again around Labor Day. In the 2022 driving season too, gasoline consumption had been rising through mid-June (four-week moving average), but less than three years earlier, and in mid-June it plateaued instead of surging, and now consumption has plunged to the lowest level since mid-April. The red line in the chart below spans July 2021 through early July 2022. The gray line spans the same weeks in 2018 and 2019. In the week ended July 8, consumption of 8.73 million barrels per day (four-week moving average) was down by 9.7% from the same period in 2019. But in 2021, June through December 2021, consumption tracked fairly closely the consumption in the same period three years earlier, in 2018: This demand destruction of gasoline is happening on a global scale – and it doesn’t even figure in yet a recession, but just price resistance, as buyers go on strike wherever they can. But in the US, people drive a lot more – whether to commute every day or to go shopping or to go on vacation – and they drive bigger vehicles than in most other countries, and they consume a lot of gasoline, and a spike like this in the price is particularly, let’s say, revolting – and finally motivating.
Rising minimum wages in 20 states and localities help protect workers and families against higher prices -- EPI Blog --On July 1, three states, 16 cities and counties, and the District of Columbia raised their minimum wages. These updates can all be viewed in EPI’s interactive Minimum Wage Tracker and in Table 1 and Table 2 below. At a time when families are coping with rising prices, these increases will help many low-wage workers and their families make ends meet. Connecticut, Nevada, Oregon, and the District of Columbia raised their minimum wages, with increases ranging from $0.50 per hour in Oregon’s nonurban counties1 to $1.00 in Connecticut. The new wage floors in Connecticut ($14.00), Nevada ($10.50), and Oregon ($13.50) were set in legislation passed in the last few years, while the District of Columbia’s minimum wage ($16.10) went up due to automatic annual inflation adjustment built into the District’s minimum wage law. (Eighteen states and the District of Columbia, as well as dozens of cities and counties, have automatic annual inflation adjustment built into their minimum wage laws.)Added to the 21 states that raised their minimums at the start of the year, a total of 24 states and the District of Columbia have raised their minimum wages in 2022. Florida and Hawaii also have minimum wage increases scheduled to occur in October. Hawaii’s increase will be the first of four increases, recently enacted by state lawmakers, that will ultimately bring the state’s minimum wage to $18 by 2028.
Industrial Production Decreased 0.2 Percent in June - From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Total industrial production moved down 0.2 percent in June but advanced at an annual rate of 6.1 percent for the second quarter as a whole. Manufacturing output declined 0.5 percent for a second consecutive month in June; even so, it rose at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter. In June, the index for mining advanced 1.7 percent, while the index for utilities fell 1.4 percent. At 104.4 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in June was 4.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased 0.3 percentage point in June to 80.0 percent, a rate that is 0.4 percentage point above its long-run (1972–2021) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization at 80.0% is 0.4% above the average from 1972 to 2021. This was below consensus expectations. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production decreased in June to 105.7. This is above the pre-pandemic level. The change in industrial production was below consensus expectations.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Activity Increased Modestly in July - This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 11.2 was an increase of 12.3 from the previous month's -1.2. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of -2.0.The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.Here is the opening paragraph from the report. Business activity increased modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed twelve points to 11.1. New orders increased marginally, and shipments expanded significantly. Unfilled orders edged lower for a second consecutive month. Delivery times lengthened at the slowest pace in months, and inventories picked up. Labor market indicators pointed to a solid increase in employment and a slightly longer average workweek. While still elevated, both the prices paid and prices received indexes moved significantly lower, pointing to a deceleration in price increases. Firms turned pessimistic about the six-month outlook, a rare occurrence in the survey’s history. [Full report] Here is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator:
GMC recalling thousands of vehicles, but no parts available to fix them - — The General Motors Corporation is recalling about 682,000 Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain SUVs due to possible windshield wiper failure. However, GMC doesn’t have the parts to fix the problem. Smithfield resident John Wayne Warren can’t drive his 2015 GMC Terrain in the rain because the wipers don’t work, and the vehicles are now part of a windshield wiper failure recall. When Warren turns on his wipers, all you hear from the wiper housing under the hood is a click, click, click … then nothing. In March, Warren got a GMC notice stating, “Parts to repair your vehicle are not currently available, but when parts are available, your GMC dealer will inspect the wiper module and repair or replace it as necessary.” The repair or replacement will be done at no charge, the recall notice added. “That is what I don’t understand. They told me the parts aren’t available and had no clue when they were going to get the parts,” said Warren. Warren’s wipers stopped working two weeks after he received the recall notice.
Nationwide HVAC Part Shortage Leaves Homeowners Without AC In Heatwave -Extreme heat across the US has strained air conditioners. HVAC technicians report repairs are delayed because of a nationwide part and labor shortage. Steve Stewart, the owner of Southern Comfort Mechanical Heating and A/C Specialists in Dallas County, Texas, told NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth that the entire HVAC industry is dealing with a shortage of all sorts of parts for HVAC systems due to lockdowns in China and bottlenecks at ports. "So part of the challenge is trying to figure out what's gone on backorder. It's varied and moved from week to week on what the items are that are tight," said Stewart.He said freon, the non-combustible gas used as a refrigerant in air conditioning, is in limited supply. "410A, which is the current refrigerant that things are supplied with, has gone through price increases probably weekly. It's steadily gone up just due to supply chain shortages. The other item is R22 which is in older systems. At times of the year, this has been in tight supply so this is in phase out at the moment. It's getting more expensive by the week. The availability of it is getting tighter and tighter. So potentially at end of this year, it'll be very difficult to get hold of."He said parts for the condenser, the outdoor unit of the HVAC system that releases hot air, are in short supply and have taken longer than normal to procure because of backorders. He noted response times for a technician to come out to homes are much longer due to a labor shortage.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 244,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending July 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,750, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 232,500. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 235,750.The previous week was unrevised.Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast
Defenders' board backs leaders after toxic workplace claims - The Defenders of Wildlife’s board of directors is standing by the organization’s senior leadership following an E&E News story documenting workplace concerns at the conservation group.John Dayton, chair of the Defenders of Wildlife board of directors, told the organization’s employee union in a Friday email that the board will continue “supporting senior leadership’s management of the organization” following the publication of an E&E News story last month that detailed current and former employees’ concerns about the workplace culture.Current and former Defenders employees described the environmental group as a workplace where turnover is rampant, questioning leadership isn’t tolerated and employees worry they might be fired without notice. Staffers referred to the group as a “nightmare” workplace and a “motorized revolving door.”Dayton’s email Friday came in response to a letter the Defenders United employee union sent to the board Thursday, which invited Defenders’ board members to sit down and speak with the organization’s union representatives.“We want to know how much longer you will wait, and how many more skilled conservation professionals will leave Defenders disenfranchised and disillusioned before you deem it prudent to listen to our perspective and hold senior leadership accountable for its failures,” the union representatives wrote to the board.At least 128 staff have departed the organization since 2019, including 34 just since January, the union wrote to the board. The organization had about 135 staffers in early 2019.Defenders currently has 39 vacancies to fill, the union wrote, and the group is “operating at roughly 20% reduced capacity.”Dayton replied that he was “well aware of the recent E&E article,” but he declined the union’s invitation to meet and a request to observe union negotiations.
No Days Off -- RECENTLY, a series of internal Amazon documents revealed that, true-to-form, the tech giant’s Draconian warehouse kingdom is infused with meticulous surveillance of its wage workers. Using radio-frequency handheld scanners, Amazon tracks every minute of what they call “time off task”: a brazen quantification of personal time and attention. If an Amazon warehouse worker accrues thirty minutes of time off task on a given day—say, by using the bathroom or talking to their coworkers—they’re given a written warning that puts them on the road to termination after just two subsequent warnings within a one-year period. (In 2021, the company claimed they would begin averaging time off task “over a longer period,” but details were predictably scant.) Time off task is depicted as the villain of the orderly and efficient workplace. The phrase itself invokes delinquency, connoting a failure to comply with rules or a failure to be a loyal worker.Time off task is a perverse little metric; a product of run-amok capitalism’s fetishization of productivity, efficiency, and other quantifications. It’s the kind of policy that was only a dream for burgeoning companies of the industrial revolution, as they clawed for more time and yield from laborers. Now though, calculating time off task can be fully realized by using the right technologies to scrupulously track workers. For Amazon, those handheld scanners are the perfect gadgets to facilitate workplace surveillance because they are essential tools that are built into the infrastructure of the work itself: the workers must use them to scan packages. The scanners are also, conveniently, extensions of workers’ physical bodies, making the data they collect a reliable depiction of physical locations and movements—or inactivity. It’s dangerous to mix surveillance technology with a disdain for personal time that metrics like time off task represent. If companies can successfully systematize tracking technologies as standard parts of workers’ lives, then they can win the battle against personal, unproductive, and unaccounted-for time. Many companies are thirsty to be omnipresent in workers’ lives because of the extra labor and the profitable data that can be squeezed out of people through surveillance. It would be a mistake to assume that this desire to destroy and exploit personal time ends at the doors of the workplace: employer surveillance is becoming more and more decentralized, spreading its voyeurism through both the body and the home.
Amazon admits to giving Ring videos to police without permission --Amazon has provided footage from Ring video cameras to police without permission from owners or a court warrant 11 times this year, the company acknowledged in a letter to Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) Brian Huseman, Amazon’s vice president of public policy, said in the letter dated July 1 that Ring complied with those requests from law enforcement after making a “good-faith determination” about risk. Markey had written to Ring last month asking the company to clarify its relationship with American police and to commit to some policy reforms, including never allowing immigration enforcement to request recordings and committing to not incorporating voice recognition tech into its products. Huseman declined to commit to any of the requests and disclosed that Ring now lets 2,161 police departments use its Neighbors app, five times more than it did in November 2019. Law enforcement officials can use the app to issue alerts and request videos. “As my ongoing investigation into Amazon illustrates, it has become increasingly difficult for the public to move, assemble, and converse in public without being tracked and recorded,” Markey said in a statement. “We cannot accept this as inevitable in our country,” the Massachusetts lawmaker continued. “Increasing law enforcement reliance on private surveillance creates a crisis of accountability, and I am particularly concerned that biometric surveillance could become central to the growing web of surveillance systems that Amazon and other powerful tech companies are responsible for.”
After Roe, some millennials are protesting by not spending with brands like Walmart and Taco Bell and growing their own food: 'This is a capitalist country. Don't let bad people have the thing that they want from you the most' --Jane Long, 33, usually spends just over $700 every two weeks on groceries. Before, she was spending that money at Walmart. But after the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to an abortion, Long — who works as a stay-at-home mother and lives hours away from the nearest in-person protest — is mounting her own form of protest: She's only going to shop locally."There's so many benefits to shopping locally in your area. Long term, it's something that we should do," Long said. "But affecting revenue streams for big companies who put all this money into politics, eventually if enough people did it, it would cause a shift and a change."Long is mother of two, and has also had two induced miscarriages in the second trimester, both of which required abortions. She said without them she wouldn't be alive.Long is one of the many Americans who are feeling disillusionedwith the current state of the country. With no policy in sight tocodify Roe v. Wade, some are taking matters into their own hands, and exerting power over what they can control: Their wallets.With the rise of social media, boycotts have become more effective and more plentiful, according to Caroline Heldman, the department chair of critical theory and social justice at Occidental College and the author of a book on the subject. "Major corporations now have divisions that respond to the business threat of potential boycotts as a matter of course, and cause marketing expenditures have skyrocketed," Heldman said. "For most of US history, most corporations sat on the political sidelines because they could. Today, there is much more public pressure to take political positions."An Insider investigation found that a slew of big companies — including Walmart, Amazon, and AT&T — have poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into lawmakers who are responsible for "trigger laws.""This is a capitalist country," Long said. "Don't let bad people have the thing that they want from you the most."
Judge allows abortions to resume in Louisiana - A federal judge has ruled that abortion services can resume in the state of Louisiana, blocking the state from enforcing its so-called trigger ban. Judge Donald Johnson granted a temporary restraining order to the Center for Reproductive Rights (CRR) and set a hearing on the case for July 18. CRR, along with Boies Schiller Flexner LLP, last month challenged the state abortion ban that was designed to go into effect immediately after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 case that had guaranteed the right to an abortion nationwide. Both organizations requested for emergency relief to allow medical providers in the state to continue providing abortions and let patients continue to access the procedure. A judge initially temporarily blocked enforcement of the ban, but that order was lifted when the case was moved to a different court. Tuesday’s ruling puts a temporary restraining order back in place.
California Governor Signs Bill Allowing Victims to Sue Gun-Makers - California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday signed legislation to allow Californian victims of shootings to sue gun makers and sellers for the harm caused by criminals using guns.The governor, a Democrat, said in a video statement that most industries are “held to account” when their products cause harm except for the gun industry.“Today, California is going to change that,” Newsom said.“They can no longer hide from the mass destruction that they have caused.”Gun makers and sellers have been shielded from civil lawsuits when crimes are committed using the guns they produce by the 2005 Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act.The new state law, which comes into effect in July 2023, takes advantage of an exemption to the federal statute that allows gun makers or sellers to be sued for violations of state laws concerning the sale or marketing of firearms.“If you’ve been hurt or a family member is a victim of gun violence, you can now go to court and hold the makers of these deadly weapons accountable,” Newsom added.
Security footage released from inside Uvalde, Texas, school confirms police ran away from gunfire, loitered in hallway --Seven weeks after 19 students and two teachers were massacred at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, marking the deadliest school shooting in Texas history, security footage from inside the school was obtained by the Austin-American-Statesman and KVUE, which they published in two separate videos on Tuesday. In the two videos released on Tuesday by the Statesman, footage is shown from outside and inside the school as well as some police body camera tape. The tape begins by showing 18-year-old Salvador Ramos crash his grandmother’s truck, which he stole after shooting her in the face, in a ditch outside the school at 11:28 a.m on May 24. Two persons are shown trying to help Ramos, who responds by shooting at them, causing them to run in fear. In the video released by the Statesman, audio is included from the Robb Elementary School teacher who called 911 at 11:31 a.m. to report a gunman outside the school. By this time there had been at least three phone calls to emergency services regarding Ramos’ rampage, including from a teacher inside the school, Ramos’ neighbors, who were tending to his injured grandmother and witnessed him drive off, and the two people who fled after attempting to help Ramos following the crash. “I cannot see him!” the teacher tells the operator. “The kids are running! Oh, my god.” As the teacher speaks, video from a bystander shows Ramos enter the school parking lot and begin shooting at the school. As Ramos is shooting, the teacher is heard yelling, “Get down! Get in your rooms! Get in your rooms!” At 11:33 a.m. the school camera inside the hallway captures Ramos entering the school. Roughly 25 seconds later, he begins shooting inside the school. As Ramos begins his massacre, an “Editor’s Note” appears on screen: “The sound of children screaming has been removed.” Police claim to have recovered over 100 shell casings fired by Ramos from inside the classroom. The footage shows at least seven police officers wearing body armor and equipped with at least one AR-15-style rifle enter the school three minutes after Ramos did, almost exactly at 11:36 a.m. After initially moving towards Classrooms 111 and 112, within a minute of entering the school, the police hear more gunfire from inside the classroom where Ramos is shooting. Instead of moving towards the sound of gunfire, the cowardly cops sprinted away from the classrooms and took cover down the hallway. Cops fleeing from the sound of gunfire inside Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas on May 24, 2022. [Photo] It would be another 74 minutes before police attempted to open the classroom door and engage Ramos. From 11:37 a.m. through 12:49 p.m., not a single cop tried to open the door or engage Ramos. This is despite the fact that by 11:38 a.m., as Ramos continued to fire from inside the classroom, seven cops were in the hallway with body armor and at least one AR-15. By 11:43 a.m. at least two different cops are observed on the camera with AR-15s, and seven cops have body armor on.By 12:23 p.m. at which point emergency services has received multiple calls from injured children inside the classroom, over two dozen highly armed militarized local, state, county police and Border Patrol agents were in the hallway. Ramos continued to fire inside the classroom. Not a single cop tried to enter the classroom. For over an hour heavily armed police walked up and down the hallway, checked their gear, readjusted the chin straps on their helmets, looked at blueprints of the school, scrolled on their phones, texted and made phones calls. One cop in body armor and with a helmet took some time to clean his hands with hand sanitizer, in-between leaning up against the wall, standing around and generally looking disinterested at doing anything to stop the ongoing massacre. While police inside the school took a lackadaisical approach to saving the lives of innocent children, outside the school, police assaulted, tasered and arrested parents who attempted to enter the school to save their children after cops refused their pleas to engage the gunman.
A Robb Elementary teacher is finally home after spending a month in the hospital recovering from being shot. He's also the cousin of the Uvalde police chief and says they haven't spoken since the shooting. -A teacher at Robb Elementary who was injured in the mass shooting says he hasn't spoken to his cousin, Uvalde School District Police Chief Pete Arredondo, since the shooting.On May 24, a gunman killed 19 students and 2 teachers in Uvalde, Texas. Eleven of those students were in Arnulfo Reyes' 4th grade classroom. During the tragedy, Reyes was first shot in the arm. Heplayed dead for an hour until the gunman shot him again in the back.Speaking with NPR, Reyes said his classroom's doorknob had been broken for at least two years. He said he can't understand why his cousin claimed to have been searching for keys when Reyes' door was unlocked. "I wish that he would have said, 'I'm going to go in there because that's my family.' But he didn't," Reyes said.Arredondo has faced public scrutiny from the community and victims' families for his department's slow response to the mass shooting. Earlier this month he resigned from his city council position and is on administrative leave.According to NPR, Reyes isn't sure if he'll return to teaching after working at the elementary school for seven years. He said the loss of his students haunts him, but that the support from his community is helping him cope. "I'm here. And a lot of it that's getting me forward in all of this is the love that I'm getting from my community, the love that I get from my family and the thought that I want to make things happen for my students," Reyes said, "that they wouldn't die in vain."
Newsom says ‘education is under assault’ over banning books, suppressing speech -- California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said on Wednesday that “education is under assault,” criticizing the banning of books across the country, efforts to suppress speech and “the othering of our students, teachers, parents.”“I do believe education is under assault in ways that I’ve never experienced in my lifetime. I really believe that. I thought it was bad back in the day when folks were debating the merits or demerits around vouchers,” Newsom said while giving remarks at the National Forum on Education Policy after receiving the Frank Newman Award for State Innovation from the Education Commission of the States. “You know, back in the good old days, in the ’90s, the black and white movie days, and people have different opinions about something called ‘charter schools,’” he mused. “But what’s happening now? Banning books, suppressing speech, the othering of our students, teachers, parents? It’s alarming.”He slammed Florida, for example, after its Department of Education in April rejected dozens of math books, citing alleged references to or the inclusion of critical race theory (CRT) and social emotional learning (SEL) in them.CRT, which is generally taught in institutions of higher education, is a decades-old theory that asserts that racism is woven into U.S. laws, institutions and history. ADVERTISING SEL programming aims to help students manage their emotions, develop and manage health identities and relationships and make responsible decisions, among other goals.Newsom also slammed Texas for cutting hundreds of millions of dollars in mental health funding after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) earlier this year redirected more than $200 million from the state’s Health and Human Services Commission, which oversees Texas’s mental health services, toward his border security initiative.
Some schools build affordable housing to retain teachers (AP) — San Francisco Bay Area high school teacher Lisa Raskin moved out of a cramped apartment she was sharing with a roommate and into her own place this month, paying a deeply discounted $1,500 a month for a one-bedroom with expansive views within walking distance to work. It was once an impossible dream in an exorbitantly priced region hostile to new housing. But her employer, a 4,000-student school district south of San Francisco, was the rare success story in the struggle to provide affordable housing and in May, it opened 122 apartments for teachers and staff. “I have a sense of community, which I think is more valuable than anything else,” the 41-year-old San Francisco native said. “More districts really need to consider this model. I think it shows educators that they value them.” The Jefferson Union High School District in San Mateo County's Daly City is among just a handful of places in the country with educator housing. But with a national teacher shortage and rapidly rising rents, the working-class district could serve as a harbinger as schools across the U.S. seek to attract and retain educators. “This is absolutely a solution for other districts. As we’ve gone through the process, we’ve learned of so many other districts interested in doing what we’ve done,” said Andrew Lie, a school board trustee. “For us to be at the front end of this new wave of teacher and staff housing is actually pretty exciting.” "It’s like a great gift coming from the district,” said math teacher Eleonor Obedoza of her family’s new three-bedroom apartment. In West Virginia, the American Federation of Teachers recently helped open a building with apartments for teachers and retail shops that officials hope will revitalize the rural town of Welch. Teachers were traveling "hours and hours to get to school and back,” said Randi Weingarten, AFT union president. “So this became an idea to spark economic development and to create housing.” Jeff Vincent, co-founder and director of the Center for Cities & Schools at the University of California, Berkeley, said such housing complexes are rare, but he expects more school districts to explore the concept given the benefits of teachers living in the communities where they work, so they can get to know students and families better. But such projects face obstacles, including pushback from residents. Vincent urges districts to be cautious. “One of the biggest barriers is the need for people to think outside the box,” he said. “There are skeptics of whether schools should be doing this with their land.” Roughly a quarter of the 500 employees at Jefferson Union were resigning or retiring every year and the district, where teacher salaries for the 2022-23 year start at $60,000, could not compete with wealthier schools that pay new teachers $76,000 or more. So in 2017-2018, officials came up with a plan to address recruitment and retention, including a $75 million housing complex for teachers and staff financed in part by a $30 million bond measure approved by voters in 2018. The district also has a more ambitious plan to lease school property for a 1,200-unit development that would mix retail with market-rate housing and generate revenue to beef up teacher salaries. But the Sierra Club's local chapter and others have expressed objections. They want more units at below-market rents and taller buildings to preserve more open space, including a decades-old garden scheduled for razing.
Education secretary, first lady to announce American Rescue Plan education grants - Education Secretary Miguel Cardona and first lady Jill Biden on Wednesday will announce the final set of education grants under the American Rescue Plan (ARP), The Hill has learned. Cardona and Biden will be joined by ARP Coordinator Gene Sperling and leadership from the Community College of Philadelphia, Coahoma Community College and Southwestern Michigan College to announce the 244 colleges and universities that will receive the grants. “The institutions that serve our highest-need students were not only hit hard by the pandemic, but in many cases have also struggled with chronic underinvestment and funding inequities,” said Cardona in a statement. The administration will disburse $198 million in Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund grants, 90 percent of which will go to historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs), minority-serving institutions (MSIs), community colleges, rural institutions and institutions serving large populations of low-income students. “This funding from the American Rescue Plan will help HBCUs, MSIs, community colleges, and other inclusive institutions better support their students, from investing in campus mental health, to providing financial relief, to meeting housing, transportation, and child care needs,” said Cardona. The Community College of Philadelphia, Coahoma Community College and Southwestern Michigan College were chosen for the press conference with administration officials because of their efforts to reduce attendance costs for students. According to the Department of Education, those institutions have reduced or eliminated tuition, eliminated outstanding balances and taken measures like reducing food costs through food pantries. A majority of institutions covered under the grants announced Wednesday will be required to distribute roughly half the funds directly to students who require support to pay for basic needs like housing and food. Coronavirus relief funds played a key role in increasing state higher education budgets even as enrollment and tuition revenue took a dive during the pandemic,according to a report by the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association. The pandemic dip in enrollment aggravated a decadelong pattern of decreasing enrollment in higher education.According to an analysis of the report by Inside Higher Ed, per-student revenue increased by 1.1 percent in fiscal 2021 with the influx of federal funds — without accounting for federal funds, total education revenue would have been down by 0.3 percent.
New proposed rule could transform student loan interest – A new rule proposed by the Education Department could transform the way student loan interest is capitalized, possibly saving borrowers thousands. Interest capitalization is a lesser-known student loan mechanism that occurs when a loan, while in a grace period such as deferment or an income-driven repayment plan, continues to accrue interest that’s then added to the principal balance. This results in the loan’s interest rate being applied to an ever-growing principal balance, something the department wants to change. It’s proposed eliminating capitalization when a borrower enters repayment, exits forbearance, defaults on a student loan or exits most income-driven repayment plans, saying it will “help borrowers who struggle to repay their loans.” However, the proposed rule states there will still be instances in which interest capitalization can occur, as required within the Higher Education Act. Proposing limits will help borrowers, as student loan debt in the U.S. currently totals about $1.7 trillion, while the average federal student loan debt balance is $37,014. Lawmakers are pushing for further reform. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) on Monday proposed a bill that would make it possible for student debt holders to refinance their loans at zero percent interest. “Big student loan interest payments can create a treadmill of debt that many Americans can’t escape. Those interest payments often stand between borrowers and the financial freedom to focus on the future, whether it’s buying a home, saving for retirement, or investing in their children,”Whitehouse said in a statement.
Laval University Professor Suspended for Questioning Covid Vaccines for Children – Jonathan Turley - A professor at Laval University (Université Laval) in Quebec City has been suspended without pay for two months for questioning the benefits of COVID vaccines for children.Microbiology and immunology Professor Patrick Provost sent out an email soliciting a discussion on the issue and raising his concerns. He has now been disciplined for merely raising such issues by a university that has discarded any semblance of academic integrity and free speech. According to The Suburban, the controversy began as a conference of Réinfo COVID, “a collective of nurses, physicians, scientists, and citizens seeking to generate debate about how the pandemic has been handled by the government.”Provost asked his colleagues “to share their views with the public” on these issues. Provost also wrote in a June Quebecor Media piece that the COVID-19 “was very real” but asked “was it as significant as reported?” He argued that there was evidence of only five individuals under age 40 dying of the disease and challenged the need for the Canadian government’s vaccine mandates and passports. As with the university, Quebecor Media quickly yielded to a mob of critics and removed Provost’s remarks. Journal de Québec Editor-in-Chief Sébastien Ménard said that Provost’s points “were inaccurate or could mislead the public.” Notably, Ménard did not seem compelled to address the alleged inaccuracies in the comments or Provost’s basis for raising his concerns.Ménard did not seem to entertain the possibility that the media can be a place for the exchange of such ideas, including a rigorous debate challenging Provost’s assertions. Instead, the solution, once again, was censorship. Most of Provost’s colleagues have said nothing in defense of an academic being denied the very freedom that defines and sustains our profession. One exception is Douglas Farrow, a professor of theology and ethics at McGill University in Montreal, who denounced the suspension as “A Repressive Political Act” in a Substack article.
The missing Americans: early death in the United States 1933-2021 --COVID-19 led to a large increase in U.S. deaths. However, even before the pandemic, the U.S. had higher death rates than other wealthy nations. How many deaths could be avoided if the U.S. had the same mortality rates as its peers?In a new study, we quantify the annual number of U.S. deaths that would have been averted over nearly a century if the U.S. had age-specific mortality rates equal to the average of 18 similarly wealthy nations. We refer to these excess U.S. deaths as “missing Americans.”The annual number of “missing Americans” increased steadily beginning in the late 1970s, reaching 626,353 in 2019 (Figure). Excess U.S. deaths jumped sharply to 991,868 in 2020 and 1,092,293 in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic.Figure. Excess deaths in the U.S. relative to other wealthy nations, 1933-2021. Source: Human Mortality Database. Note: Figure shows the difference between the number of deaths that occurred in the U.S. each year and the number of deaths that would have occurred if the U.S. had age-specific mortality rates equal to the average of other wealthy nations. The comparison set includes Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The average of other wealthy nations excludes Portugal prior to 1940, Austria and Japan prior to 1947, Germany prior to 1956, and Luxembourg prior to 1960. From 1960, all countries are represented (solid dots). In 2021, nearly 1 out of every 3 U.S. deaths would have been averted if U.S. mortality rates had equaled those of its peer nations. Half of these excess deaths were among U.S. residents under 65 years. We estimate that the 1.1M excess deaths in 2021 were associated with 25M years of life lost, accounting for the number of years the deceased would otherwise be expected to live.We also compared mortality rates of U.S. racial and ethnic groups with the international benchmark. Black and Native Americans accounted for a disproportionate share of the “missing Americans.” However, the majority of “missing Americans” were White non-Hispanic persons.Our findings are consistent with recent reports that the life expectancy gap between the U.S. and peer nations widened during the pandemic, with U.S. life expectancy falling from 78.9 to 76.6 years. Life expectancy is widely reported, but it is a complex measure and may be misinterpreted as reflecting small differences in mortality at advanced ages.In fact, the greatest relative differences in mortality between the U.S. and peer countries occur before age 65. In 2021, half of all deaths to U.S. residents under 65 years – and 90% of the increase in under-65 mortality since 2019 – would have been avoided if the U.S. had the mortality rates of other wealthy nations. In addition to the loss of life, these early deaths often leave behind child (and elder) dependents without key social and economic support.
Move over, measles: Dominant Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 could be the most infectious viruses known to man - COVID was relatively deadly, but not ultra-transmissible when it burst onto the global scene in late 2019 and early 2020.These days, due a number of factors, the reverse is true: It's considerably less lethal, but more exponentially transmissible.Globally dominant Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 are neck and neck with measles in the competition for the title of most infectious disease known to man,according to an Australian professor of biostatistics and epidemiology.The original Wuhan strain of COVID-19 had a reproductive rate—also known as an R0 or R-naught value—of around 3.3, meaning that each infected person infected another 3.3 people, on average. That put COVID-19 among the least transmissiblehuman diseases.Slightly less transmissible were the 1918 pandemic strain of flu, which had an estimated R0 of 2, along with Ebola. On the higher end of the spectrum, mumps has an R0 of 12; measles tops the list at 18.In order to outcompete, successful COVID variants have become more transmissible with time. Delta had a slightly higher reproductive rate of around 5.1. Then came Omicron, with an reproductive rate almost twice as large: 9.5.So called "stealth Omicron," nicknamed for its ability to evade detection on PCR tests, was about 1.4 times more transmissible than BA.1, so its reproductive rate was around 13.3, Adrian Esterman, a professor at the University of South Australia, recently wrote on academic news website The Conversation.New studies suggest that BA.4 and BA.5 have a growth advantage over BA.2 similar to the growth advantage BA.2 had over BA.1. Thus, the latest dominant COVID subvariants have a reproductive rate of around 18.6, tying or surpassing measles, the world's most infectious viral disease, according to Esterman.The next dominant COVID strain should surpass them all. BA.2.75, an ultra-new Omicron subvariant nicknamed "Centaurus" by some on Twitter, made headlines this week after the World Health Organization said it was tracking it. It's already on the heels of dominant BA.5 in India, with "apparent rapid growth and wide geographical spread,"
Qatar Omicron-Wave Study Shows Slow Decline of Natural Immunity, Rapid Decline of Vaccine Immunity - Weill Cornell Medicine -- A recent Pfizer or Moderna mRNA-vaccine booster provided good but temporary protection against infection by the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant, according to a study from researchers at Weill Cornell Medicine—Qatar.In the study, published June 15 in the New England Journal of Medicine, the researchers analyzed the omicron wave in Qatar last winter, comparing prior infections, vaccine immunity and combinations thereof among more than 100,000 omicron-infected and non-infected individuals.The analysis showed, as expected, that full mRNA vaccination plus a booster dose, atop natural immunity due to infection by an earlier variant, was associated with the strongest protection from omicron infection. However, vaccine immunity against new infection appeared to wane rapidly, whereas people with a prior-variant infection were moderately protected from omicron with little decline in protection even a year after their prior infection.The study, the most comprehensive of its kind in investigating different combinations of immunity for omicron-variant SARS-CoV-2 infections, also found evidence that both vaccination and prior infection provided strong and durable protection from severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 during the omicron wave.“We found that the rates of severe COVID-19 during Qatar’s omicron wave were very low even among those who had only two doses of vaccine or only a prior infection,” said study first author Dr. Heba Altarawneh, a postdoctoral research associate who conducted this study working with study senior author Dr. Laith Abu-Raddad, a professor of population health sciences at Weill Cornell Medicine—Qatar and at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York.Qatar’s highly centralized and comprehensive electronic health records database, which includes all RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 performed in the country, permits unusually rapid and large-scale epidemiological studies. Dr. Abu-Raddad and colleagues have already published prominent papers on infection and illness rates for prior SARS-CoV-2 variants and waves.
Neutralization Escape by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Subvariants BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 | NEJM --We evaluated neutralizing antibody titers against the reference WA1/2020 isolate of SARS-CoV-2 along with omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.4 or BA.5 in 27 participants who had been vaccinated and boosted with messenger RNA vaccine BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech) and in 27 participants who had been infected with the BA.1 or BA.2 subvariant a median of 29 days earlier (range, 2 to 113) (Tables S1 and S2 in the Supplementary Appendix, available with the full text of this letter at NEJM.org). In the vaccine cohort, participants were excluded if they had a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection or a positive result on nucleocapsid serologic analysis or if they had received another vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) or an immunosuppressive medication.Six months after the initial two BNT162b2 immunizations, the median neutralizing antibody pseudovirus titer was 124 against WA1/2020 but less than 20 against all the tested omicron subvariants (Figure 1B). Two weeks after administration of the booster dose, the median neutralizing antibody titer increased substantially, to 5783 against the WA1/2020 isolate, 900 against the BA.1 subvariant, 829 against the BA.2 subvariant, 410 against the BA.2.12.1 subvariant, and 275 against the BA.4 or BA.5 subvariant. These data show that as compared with the response against the WA1/2020 isolate, the neutralizing antibody titer was lower by a factor of 6.4 against BA.1, by a factor of 7.0 against BA.2, by a factor of 14.1 against BA.2.12.1, and by a factor of 21.0 against BA.4 or BA.5. In addition, as compared with the median neutralizing antibody titer against the BA.1 subvariant, the median titer was lower by a factor of 2.2 against the BA.2.12.1 subvariant and by a factor of 3.3 against the BA.4 or BA.5 subvariant.Among the participants who had been infected with the BA.1 or BA.2 subvariant of omicron, all but one had been vaccinated against Covid-19. Because of the variation in sampling after the onset of infection, some samples may not reflect peak neutralizing antibody titers (Table S2). Among the participants with a history of Covid-19, the median neutralizing antibody titer was 11,050 against the WA1/2020 isolate, 1740 against the BA.1 subvariant, 1910 against the BA.2 subvariant, 1150 against the BA.2.12.1 subvariant, and 590 against the BA.4 or BA.5 subvariant (Figure 1C). These data show that as compared with the WA1/2020 isolate, the median neutralizing antibody titer was lower by a factor of 6.4 against BA.1, by a factor of 5.8 against BA.2, by a factor of 9.6 against BA.2.12.1, and by a factor of 18.7 against BA.4 or BA.5. In addition, as compared with the median titers against the BA.1 subvariant, the median titer was lower by a factor of 1.5 against the BA.2.12.1 subvariant and by a factor of 2.9 against the BA.4 or BA.5 subvariant.These data show that the BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 subvariants substantially escape neutralizing antibodies induced by both vaccination and infection. Moreover, neutralizing antibody titers against the BA.4 or BA.5 subvariant and (to a lesser extent) against the BA.2.12.1 subvariant were lower than titers against the BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants, which suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant has continued to evolve with increasing neutralization escape. These findings provide immunologic context for the current surges caused by the BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 subvariants in populations with high frequencies of vaccination and BA.1 or BA.2 infection.
Wastewater sequencing reveals early cryptic SARS-CoV-2 variant transmission - As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread and evolve, detecting emerging variants early is critical for public health interventions. Inferring lineage prevalence by clinical testing is infeasible at scale, especially in areas with limited resources, participation, or testing/sequencing capacity, which can also introduce biases1–3. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater successfully tracks regional infection dynamics and provides less biased abundance estimates than clinical testing4,5. Tracking virus genomic sequences in wastewater would improve community prevalence estimates and detect emerging variants. However, two factors limit wastewater-based genomic surveillance: low-quality sequence data and inability to estimate relative lineage abundance in mixed samples. Here, we resolve these critical issues to perform a high-resolution, 295-day wastewater and clinical sequencing effort, in the controlled environment of a large university campus and the broader context of the surrounding county. We develop and deploy improved virus concentration protocols and deconvolution software that fully resolve multiple virus strains from wastewater. We detect emerging variants of concern up to 14 days earlier in wastewater samples, and identify multiple instances of virus spread not captured by clinical genomic surveillance. Our study provides a scalable solution for wastewater genomic surveillance that allows early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants and identification of cryptic transmission.As BA.5 variant spreads, risk of covid reinfection grows - America has decided the pandemic is over. The coronavirus has other ideas.The latest omicron offshoot, BA.5, has quickly become dominant in the United States, and thanks to its elusiveness when encountering the human immune system, is driving a wave of cases across the country.The size of that wave is unclear because most people are testing at home or not testing at all. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the past week has reported a little more than 100,000 new cases a day on average. But infectious-disease experts know that wildly underestimates the true number, which may be as many as a million, said Eric Topol, a professor at Scripps Research who closely tracks pandemic trends. Antibodies from vaccines and previous coronavirus infections offer limited protection against BA.5, leading Topol to call it “the worst version of the virus that we’ve seen.” Other experts point out that, despite being hit by multiple rounds of ever-more-contagious omicron subvariants, the country has not yet seen a dramatic spike in hospitalizations. About 38,000 people were hospitalized nationally with covid as of Friday, according to data compiled by The Washington Post. That figure has been steadily rising since early March, but remains far below the record 162,000 patients hospitalized with covid in mid-January. The average daily death toll on Friday stood at 329 and has not changed significantly over the past two months.There is widespread agreement among infectious-disease experts that this remains a dangerous virus that causes illnesses of unpredictable severity — and they say the country is not doing enough to limit transmission.Restrictions and mandates are long gone. Air travel is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels. Political leaders aren’t talking about the virus — it’s virtually a nonissue on the campaign trail. Most people are done with masking, social distancing and the pandemic generally. They’re taking their chances with the virus.“It’s the Wild West out there,” said Ziyad Al-Aly, an epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis. “There are no public health measures at all. We’re in a very peculiar spot, where the risk is vivid and it’s out there, but we’ve let our guard down and we’ve chosen, deliberately, to expose ourselves and make ourselves more vulnerable.” Many people now see the pandemic as part of the fabric of modern liferather than an urgent health emergency. Some of that is simply a widespread recalibration of risk. This is not the spring of 2020 anymore. Few people remain immunologically naive to the virus. They may still get infected, but the immune system — primed by vaccines or previous bouts with the virus — generally has deeper layers of defense that prevent severe disease. But the death rate from covid-19 is still much higher than the mortality from influenza or other contagious diseases. Officials have warned of a possible fall or winter wave — perhaps as many as 100 million infectionsin the United States — that could flood hospitals with covid patients. Beyond the direct suffering of such a massive outbreak, there could beeconomic disruptions as tens of millions of people become too sick to work. Population-level immunity is one reason the virus remains in mutational overdrive. The risk of reinfections has increased because newly emergent subvariants are better able to evade the front-line defense of the immune system, and there is essentially no effort at the community level to limit transmission. Al-Aly, who is also chief of research and development at Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System, has scoured VA’s vast database to see what happened to the nearly 39,000 patients infected with the coronavirus for a second or third time. What he found was sobering. In apaper posted online last month, but not yet peer-reviewed or published in a journal, Al-Aly and his co-authors reported that people with multiple infections have a higher cumulative risk of a severe illness or death.
Covid deaths no longer overwhelmingly among the unvaccinated as toll on elderly grows - Unvaccinated people accounted for the overwhelming majority of deaths in the United States throughout much of the coronavirus pandemic. But that has changed in recent months, according to a Washington Post analysis of state and federal data.The pandemic’s toll is no longer falling almost exclusively on those who chose not to or could not get shots, with vaccine protection waning over time and the elderly and immunocompromised — who are at greatest risk of succumbing to covid-19, even if vaccinated — having a harder time dodging increasingly contagious strains.The vaccinated made up 42 percent of fatalities in January and February during the highly contagious omicron variant’s surge, compared with 23 percent of the dead in September, the peak of the delta wave, according to nationwide data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed by The Post. The data is based on the date of infection and limited to a sampling of cases in which vaccination status was known.As a group, the unvaccinated remain far more vulnerable to the worst consequences of infection — and are far more likely to die — than people who are vaccinated, and they are especially more at risk than people who have received a booster shot.“It’s still absolutely more dangerous to be unvaccinated than vaccinated,” said Andrew Noymer, a public health professor at the University of California at Irvine who studies covid-19 mortality. “A pandemic of — and by — the unvaccinated is not correct. People still need to take care in terms of prevention and action if they became symptomatic.”A key explanation for the rise in deaths among the vaccinated is that covid-19 fatalities are again concentrated among the elderly. Nearly two-thirds of the people who died during the omicron surge were 75 and older, according to a Post analysis, compared with a third during the delta wave. Seniors are overwhelmingly immunized, but vaccines areless effective and their potency wanes over time in older age groups.
FDA authorizes Novavax COVID vaccine for adults - The FDA has given the green light to Novavax's COVID vaccine for adults, making it the fourth vaccine available for the coronavirus.
The omicron BA.5 variant is driving COVID reinfections across the U.S. : NPR - For much of the pandemic, the only silver lining to coming down with a case of COVID-19 was that you likely wouldn't catch it again for a while (though there isn't exactly a definitive answer on how long that period immunity typically lasts).Increasingly, however, more people appear to be contracting the virus multiple times in relatively quick succession, as another omicron subvariant sweeps through the U.S. Dr. Bob Wachter, the chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, says BA.5 is highly transmissible and manages to at least partially sidestep some of the immunity people may have from prior infections and vaccinations."Not only is it more infectious, but your prior immunity doesn't count for as much as it used to," he explains. "And that means that the old saw that, 'I just had COVID a month ago, and so I have COVID immunity superpowers, I'm not going to get it again' — that no longer holds."So just how worried should you be, especially if you're vaccinated and taking precautions like wearing masks in crowds? Here's what some public health experts make of the latest surge.So far there is no evidence that this variant causes more serious illness. And infectious disease experts say that even though new infections are on the rise, the impact of BA.5 is unlikely to be on the scale of the surge we saw last winter — in part because the country is better equipped to manage it. The U.S. is averaging about 300 deaths a day, compared to 3,000 last winter. Dr. Anna Durbin, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, says the combination of prior infections and vaccinations is still protective, and COVID-19 treatments are better.
New COVID subvariant could make you sweat at night -- There could be a new reason to sweat over COVID-19’s rising rates – even though Big Apple hospitalizations and deaths remain low.Luke O’Neill, a professor of biochemistry at Trinity College in Ireland, warned the new BA.5 variant – now the dominant Omicron subvariant worldwide — could make sleeping difficult in the form of night sweats, The Sun reported.He called the symptom “another curveball” that is a result of the new subvariant colliding with immune systems resulting in a “different disease.” Intense night sweats have been linked to earlier Omicron subvariants.
BA.5 Outdoor Transmission: The Risk of Catching COVID-19 - When the pandemic first began, COVID-19 seemed to lurk around every corner, so it came as a big relief when scientists established that the virus doesn’t easily spread outdoors. This summer, however, that feeling of relative safety has come into question. Now that the BA.5 subvariant is driving a new wave in the U.S., can people count on the open air to keep them safe?The truth is that being outside has never been a sure way to avoid COVID-19 transmission—especially at crowded events, like music festivals, which have been linked to outbreaks in the past. “We certainly hear, in our study, of people who pretty clearly were infected outdoors, so it happens,” says Dr. Donald Milton, professor of environmental health at the University of Maryland School of Public Health, who is principal investigator of an ongoing study on COVID-19 transmission. Of course, “it’s still a lower risk than indoors,” but Milton does not feel comfortable in every outdoor situation. “I didn’t go to the fireworks on July 4, and I have not been in any crowds,” he says. BA.5 seems to evade immunity from vaccines and past infections more easily than past subvariants, which experts say increases risk no matter where you are. “We’re more susceptible hosts, and we’re more susceptible whether we’re inside or outside,” says Dr. Duane Wesemann, an associate professor at Harvard Medical School and an immunologist at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.While scientists are still learning about BA.5, it’s increasingly clear that compared to past variants, it has advantages that help it bypass the immune system’s defenses. Like other Omicron subvariants, BA.5 has developed new mutations—in this case, in the spike protein, the part of the virus that binds to cells—which may help it to evade immunity, explains Bing Chen, an associate professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and Boston Children’s Hospital who studies molecular medicine. “Our antibodies are a little less effective against BA.5 compared to BA.1 and Delta,” he says. BA.5’s increased transmission and our diminished immune defenses mean that COVID-19 transmission outdoors has become more likely. But that doesn’t mean that being outdoors isn’t going to provide some protection—especially if you also take other precautions. As always, context matters. Being in the open air and away from other people is safer than being in a crowd with worse air circulation—like in a packed baseball stadium without a breeze, says Milton. “Outdoors remains a much lower-risk setting than indoors,” says Linsey Marr, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech. “Transmission outdoors is most likely to occur in close, face-to-face conversation. There’s also the possibility of transmission if you happen to be close enough and downwind of someone who is infected.”
BA.5 Covid variant 4 times more vaccine-resistant, reveals study -- BA.5 – the newest subvariant of Omicron and the dominant strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the US – is four times more resistant to Covid-19 vaccines, as per a new study published in Nature. Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 are currently the dominant strains of fresh Covid-19 cases in the US.The study revealed that the subvariant is four times more resistant to messenger RNA vaccines than earlier strains of Omicron, which include Pfizer and Moderna coronavirusvaccines.In a recent report, the Mayo Clinic said that the strain is "hypercontagious" and is contributing to increases in hospitalisations and ICU admissions.Those yet to be vaccinated against Covid-19 have about a five times higher chance of contracting the virus compared to those who are vaccinated and boosted, while chances of hospitalisation are 7.5 times higher, and chances of death are 14 to 15 times higher, said Gregory Poland, Head of the Mayo Clinic's Vaccine Research Group.The two new subvariants were earlier spotted in South Africa in April and quickly spread worldwide and also have a high transmission rate. They carry mutations on their spike protein – the part of the virus that attaches to ACE2 receptors on human cells so they can enter them. The BA.5 strain represented 65% of Covid-19 cases in the US in the week ending 9 July, as per the latest data from the US Centers of Disease Control and Prevention. It's not yet clear whether the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants evolved from the original Omicron variant, as experts believe they likely evolved from the previously dominant BA.2 Omicron variant. Meanwhile, WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan has asked people to be prepared for fresh Covid-19 waves. Amid the onset of new variants that are more transmissible, immune evasive and growing concerns about greater hospitalisations, the WHO chief said. “We need to be prepared for these #COVID19 waves -- each new #variant will be more transmissible & immune evasive -- higher numbers infected will translate into greater hospitalisations & sickness. All countries must have a data driven plan to quickly respond to changing situations,"
Is omicron subvariant BA.5 the ‘worst’ COVID version yet? - Yes, another omicron subvariant — BA.5 — is now dominant among coronavirus cases reported in the U.S. But is BA.5 the “worst” version of COVID-19 to date? One scientist, Dr. Eric Topol, founder and director of Scripps Research Translational Institute, described it as such in a report about the subvariant’s “takeover” in late June.“This version of the virus has caused a lot of trouble, more than other Omicron subvariants,” Topol wrote in an updated report on BA.5 on July 10.The subvariant makes up more than 65% of COVID-19 cases in the countryas of July 9, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data estimates. It has surpassed other omicron subvariants, including “stealth omicron,” or BA.2, which ruled cases in the spring.The subvariant was characterized as “a whole different animal” by UC Davis Health because it is “most easily transmissible” and has a capacity to “evade previous immunity from COVID infection and vaccination.”It was found that BA.5 and another newer omicron subvariant, BA.4, were four times more resistant to antibody protection offered by COVID-19 vaccines compared to BA.2, according to research published July 5 in the journal Nature.While BA.5 makes up more than half of cases in the U.S., BA.4 was estimated to make up roughly 16% as of July 2, CDC data shows.In Topol’s report, he wrote that BA.5 and BA.4 are the “most immune-evasive variants,” based on recent studies, but BA.5 is the most transmissible of the omicron lineage.He said BA.5 “takes immune escape, already extensive, to the next level, and, as a function of that, enhanced transmissibility, well beyond Omicron (BA.1) and other Omicron family variants that we’ve seen (including BA.1.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.4).”This was noted in a preprint study that found BA.5 has an “increased transmission potential in the community,” according to the work published July 10 to MedRxiv involving researchers from the Kirby Institute in Australia.Dr. Nicole Van Groningen, of Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, told KTLA that BA.5 “tends to have this capacity for reinfection” and this creates concerns about “increasing cases this summer.”Likely BA.5 and BA.4 reinfections after four weeks of an initial COVID-19 infection have been observed by Western Australia chief health officer Dr. Andrew Robertson, Business Insider reported.
Covid-19: Mutations in new omicron variant BA275 from India reveals big risk -- Yet another variant has appeared. This time in India. And it appears adapted to evade our immune response. It passes through 1000 generations each month. That’s more than enough genetic dice rolls for successful mutations to establish their dominance. The latest coronavirus variant identified as a potential cause for concern is variant BA 2.75 – nicknamed “Centaurus”. It was first identified in India, but has already been detected in Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, New Zealand – and Australia. “There’s minimal data about this variant so far,” says Austrian Academy of Sciences geneticist Dr Ulrich Elling. “But it has a couple of attributes that have made us take notice.” The Centaurus variant is a mutation of a mutation, developed from the older Omicron BA. 2 variant. It’s the BA. 5 variant that is currently causing so much concern as it takes hold in Australia. What makes it more successful is the great ease with which it infects new hosts. But BA. 2.75, which is only in the early stages of study, appears able to dodge any immunity built up against its parent BA.2. Put simply, that means anyone who had Covid BA. 2 will be just as susceptible to catching it again as they were the first time around. And its even greater difference to BA. 5 could also result in a lack of immune system “recognition”. European researchers have found BA. 2.75 to have eight extra spike protein mutations. These are the nodules found on the surface of a virus that act as “keys” to unlock a host’s cells. The locations of these “keys” give scientists clues about their capabilities. In the case of BA. 2.75, they’re clustered in a way that could conceal its identity to an immune system familiar with its parent. And that makes it even more distinct from the current dominant coronavirus strain – BA.5. They’re in what’s called the N-terminal domain (NTD) – one of the more prominent protuberances of the virus. “The NTD is decorated with mutations in BA. 2.75 in and around the neutralising antibody binding “supersite” and could thus enhance immune evasion in that region,” Dr Elling explains. And circumstantial evidence supports this: BA. 2.75 has already been able to establish footholds around the world with extraordinary speed.
We Are Monitoring The New Omicron Sub-Variant BA.2.75, Says WHO - According to World Health Organization (WHO), a new sub-variant of the corona, i.e. a new variant of omicron BA.2.75, has been detected in the country. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said there are cases of BA.4 and BA.5 in Europe-America. However, there is an increased risk of a new sub-variant of BA.2.75 in countries like India. The World Health Organization claimed in its report that this variant first appeared in India, found in 10 other countries. Tedros said that we would have to wait for the analysis of this sub-variant; hence we are keeping an eye on this. As per WHO, there has been an increase of 30 per cent in the cases of corona in the world in the last two weeks. There has been a 17 per cent increase in new cases in the last 24 hours in the country. During the previous 24 hours, 18,930 new cases were found in the country, and 14,798 patients were cured. While 35 infected died. After the latest figures, the active cases have gone up to 117,893. There was a proliferation of 17 per cent in new patients on Wednesday as 16,159 new cases were found on Tuesday. There are five states in the country where the maximum number of cases are reported. These include Maharashtra, Kerala, West Bengal, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. In Maharashtra, there has been an 18% increase in the number of newly infected people compared to the previous day. As a result, Maharashtra leads to the death toll due to corona infection. In the last 24 hours, seven people lost their lives in Maharashtra due to the epidemic. On Wednesday, seven infected people died in the state. Since the initial phase of corona till now, more than 1 lakh 47 thousand patients have been killed in Maharashtra. Wednesday's figures show that the maximum number of cases in the country are from Kerala. One thousand five hundred ten (1510) new cases were reported in one day. On Wednesday, 4113 new infections were found in Kerala. There has been a 58% jump in the number of infected people compared to Tuesday. In the last 24 hours, 3080 people died of corona infection, crossing the total death toll of 70 thousand.
The COVID-19 Reinfection Loop and What It Means for Americans’ Health -More Americans are catching the coronavirus for the second, third or even fourth time. And each time someone contracts COVID-19, they are rolling the dice on whether they will come down with serious health issues. It’s a reinfection loop that is seizing the country with no immediate end in sight, and it is driven by a coronavirus variant scene that continues to quickly change. The majority of Americans have had COVID-19 at some point in time, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But with more than 120,000 new infections reported on average each day – a number that is sure to be a significant undercount as many rely on at-home tests – the pool of Americans who haven’t gotten COVID-19 is getting smaller while the number of Americans who are getting reinfected grows. Of course, COVID-19 reinfection wouldn’t be a major issue if it did not come with additional health risks. But that isn’t the case. Ziyad Al-Aly, a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis, says he decided to study reinfections after more of his patients started reporting getting COVID-19 again, and he wondered if getting reinfected adds any adverse health risks. “The answer is absolutely, absolutely yes,” says Al-Aly, who is also the chief of research and development at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System. “People need to really be aware that if they’ve previously been infected, it's still worth it to protect themselves from or to reduce the risk of getting reinfected.” In a recent study, which hasn’t been peer reviewed yet, Al-Aly and other researchers found that people who had been reinfected had a greater chance of death, hospitalization, lung and heart problems, diabetes, fatigue, digestive and kidney disorders and mental health issues within six months of their last infection than those who had been infected once. “Even if you've had it, having it again is certainly no cakewalk and absolutely adds risk,” Al-Aly says. The study, which authors said was the first to characterize the health risks of COVID-19 reinfection to their knowledge, looked at health records from 250,000 veterans who had one COVID-19 infection and nearly 39,000 people who had one or more reinfection. Among those with reinfections, roughly 36,400 people had two COVID-19 infections, about 2,260 had COVID-19 three times, and 246 had been infected four or more times. Al-Aly says that hopefully the findings “will serve as a wake-up call to accelerate development of new vaccines that really reduce transmission.”
Warner Bros. Sees Big Covid Outbreak As Rising Cases Hit Hollywood – Los Angeles County’s daily tally of new Covid cases has topped 8,000 for the first time since January and, like many local industries, Hollywood is not immune.Warner Bros. has recorded what may be the biggest showbiz outbreak of the pandemic, with 31 employees listed as infected on the official L.A. County Public Health Department web site. The studio has seen smaller outbreaks, mostly in the range of 3-5 cases. In May its Bldg 128 had a cluster of 5 cases while Stages 27 and 29 also saw 5 cases.The next-highest Industry-related outbreak we’re aware of took place at Lionsgate, also in May, when the studio saw 21 infections. More than half of those were among employees returning from CinemaCon in Las Vegas.Other notable outbreak sites include The Walt Disney Company, which is currently listed with six infections. Fox Sports, which has appeared on the list multiple times, now has a tally of 10. In May, Fox Sports and Fox Sports Deportes had more than a dozen cases.Speaking of sports, the Dodgers now have their second 10-case outbreak of the pandemic, while Crypto.com Arena is listed with 7 infections. By comparison, Crypto.com recorded 61 infections at the peak of the first Omicron wave in January. Experts say any official case numbers across the board are likely undercounts due to the widespread use of at-home test kits, the results of which are rarely reported.
California Covid Test Positivity Nearing Record Level & Still Rising – Last December 15, as the original Omicron wave gained serious momentum, California reinstituted a statewide indoor mask mandate. State Public Health Officer Tomás Aragón said the move was “to add a layer of mitigation as the Omicron variant, a Variant of Concern as labeled by the World Health Organization, increased in prevalence across California, the United States, and the world and spread much more easily than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and the Delta variant.” At the time, the state’s 7-day average rate of test positivity was 2.6%. Today, the state is beset by another Variant of Concern called BA.5, a sublineage thought to have a growth advantage at least four times that of the original Omicron from December. CDC data indicates that, at the end of last week, BA.5 and sister subvariant BA.4 accounted for about 68% of new cases in the region comprised chiefly of California, Arizona and Nevada. BA.5 accounts for the vast majority of those cases and looks set to push out all other variants in the coming weeks. California’s current 7-day test positivity rate is 16.7%. That gives the current summer surge the dubious honor of having the second-highest rate of test positivity the state has seen during the pandemic. It’s second only to the very peak of last winter’s Omicron wave. And it’s still going higher.Since BA.5’s increased growth rate is largely due to its ability to evade the protection provided by previous infection and — to a lesser extent — the protection provided by vaccination, the state cannot count on vaccination in the same way it could with the original Omicron wave.What’s more, the three most concerning metrics to health officials — hospital and ICU beds occupied by those infected with Covid and the average number of daily Covid deaths — are already far above where they were before Christmas.The director of public health in the state’s most populous county, Los Angeles, said yesterday that she expects her county will move into the CDC’s “High” level Covid designation next week as a result of the rising numbers. If L.A. stays in that category for 14 days, the county will reimpose a mask mandate in public places. Reported cases over the past month, while steadily rising, have not jumped at nearly the rate they did in December. The problem is, reported test results have dropped dramatically since December as more Californians use at-home kits, the results of which are not captured in official reporting. Because of that, White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Ashish Jha told Lester Holt on NBC’s Nightly News last night, “There’s no question in my mind that we’re missing a vast majority of infections right now.” Even with the limited test reporting, the number recorded in California today — 13,000 new cases — is already 44% above the approximately 9,000 cases reported on December 15 of last year. That, coupled with the Golden State’s sky-high test positivity and a much more infectious variant, does not bode well.
L.A. County inches closer to mask mandate: 'We have a ton of transmission right now' - Los Angeles County reached a “high” level of COVID-19 infections on Thursday, according to public health officials, meaning a mask mandate could be imposed in two weeks as the highly transmissible Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 make waves across the country.The health department bases its decision on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s three-tier criteria of community high, medium or low levels of COVID-19 rates.L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer expressed concern to reporters Thursday about the new infections, saying “we have a ton of transmission right now,” and stressed her position on masking up. “The best way to manage the uncertainty and to reduce morbidity and mortality is to remain open to using both the sophisticated tools we now have — our tests, our vaccines, our therapeutics — and the nonpharmaceutical strategies — masking, ventilation and distancing — to layer on protections to respond to the conditions at hand,” Ferrer said during the briefing.“Sensible safety precautions that can slow down the spread of the virus are warranted, and that includes universal indoor masking,” she said.Ferrer told the L.A. County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday, and reiterated Thursday, that an indoor mask mandate will be imposed unless there’s a significant reversal in the current hospitalization rates caused by the coronavirus within the next two weeks.That means the mandate would take effect by July 29.In order to “reverse course,” Ferrer said the county would have to drop below the “high” infection level, but she said it’s unlikely that would happen before the mandate. The last time the area required face coverings was in March.
Newest COVID variant, BA.5, is spreading fast in Virginia. Experts are unsure what impact it will bring. - The BA.5 strain of COVID-19 is spreading quickly across Virginia and now accounts for more than half of all cases in the state, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates. A subvariant of omicron, BA.5 is causing new infections, even among those vaccinated and those who have already contracted COVID. It’s considered the most transmissible variant yet and might be capable of producing more severe disease. In Virginia, hospitalizations are on the incline. Deaths remain low. “The BA.5 omicron variant has become the majority variant of the virus in the USA in a matter of weeks and is a very troubling development,” said Dr. Gonzalo Bearman, head of infectious diseases for Virginia Commonwealth University Health. The University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute said BA.5, along with the slightly older BA.4, may cause a small surge this summer. What kind of effect they’ll have on the Richmond area isn’t determined yet, said Dr. Melissa Viray, Richmond and Henrico interim health director. “I think it’s a little too early to say,” Viray added. “We need to monitor the impact of BA.4 and BA.5.” Experts aren’t sure yet if the BA.5 variant can cause greater severity of illness. As variants have evolved, they’ve typically become more transmissible and less deadly. But the BA.5 variant arrives at a time when immunity for many people is declining. “As many individuals are not vaccinated and others have waning vaccine protection, this may lead to both greater numbers of infection and greater severity of disease,” Bearman said. In Virginia, 72% of residents are fully vaccinated. But less than half of Virginians have received a booster, and vaccine immunity wanes over time. It’s unclear how much immunity is necessary to ward off infection. The older BA.2.12.1 variant is shrinking but continues to have a presence in the state. Pfizer and Moderna plan to have boosters that target omicron by this fall.
Coronavirus dashboard for July 11: BA.4&5 now over 80% of cases without creating a new wave, as COVID heads toward endemicity - The CDC’s variant proportions data for this past week is out, and it shows that combined BA.4&5 made up slightly over 80% of all infections. BA.5 was at 65%, and BA.4 at 16%: The 12 week view of confirmed infections and deaths shows that the two new variants have almost completely supplanted both the original BA.2 variant as well as BA.2.12.1, but without giving rise to any new “wave” of increased infections or deaths at all: Cases have been in the range of 100,000-110,000 for over 8 weeks, and deaths in the range of 275-350 for 10 weeks. There has been plenty of information that, due to home testing, confirmed cases are undercounting actual cases by a large amount. But when we turn to BIobot’s graph of nationwide wastewater testing results, we see that, while “actual” cases as indicated by wastewater are 2.5x the number of “confirmed” cases, the trend of the two is similar: In other words, between mid-May and the end of June, there was no increase in cases whatsoever. Since then wastewater has indicated that cases have increased by roughly 10%. Since cases have almost always peaked by the time a variant reaches 90% of the total, which is likely to occur in about one week, BA.4&5 are not likely to be creating so much of a wave as a ripple. The longer term view of deaths (solid line) compared with cases (dotted line) continues to show that each new variant has resulted in fewer deaths compared with cases than the previous variant: Similarly, below is a graph from Trevor Bedford, an epidemiologist who has been invaluable in estimated the impact of each variant as it has appeared. The graph shows that new variants are appearing with more rapidity, and is replaced by the next variant at lower levels of penetration by the previous variant: What I see is a disease heading towards endemicity. Last year I was hopeful that, between vaccinations and previous infections, some approximation of herd immunity would be reached and the disease would fade into the background. Instead it is clear that the disease is evolving towards the ability to repetitively infect survivors. Consider the following: if the first line defense of the immune system, antibodies, fade over (for example) 6 months; and there are two similarly infectious variants beginning to circulate; then the variant that is least like the variants circulating in the past 6 months is the one that is going to predominate. Because the variants most like the ones circulating in, say, the last 3 months, are going to be most susceptible to being neutralized by existing antibodies still active in peoples’ immune systems. The variant least likely to be neutralized by those antibodies, vs. antibodies that have already faded away over time, is the one that is going to take over. And so we see a fairly rapid turnover of variants; but on the other hand, because B-cells and T-cells are relatively permanent, those lines of defenses are increasingly able to blunt serious disease among those whose immune systems are not weak or compromised. So the death rate is much lower than before, but remains concentrated among the elderly (of course, those elderly most susceptible to COVID probably already died of it in 2020 or 2021). The next variant of concern appears to be BA.2.75, which started in India in May and has spread to many countries since, but has not yet become dominant in any other country. If it follows the pattern of BA.2.12.1 and BA.4&5, it will take over dominance in the next several months, but there will not be a big spike in the number of infections, as had been the case in 2020 and 2021.
COVID cases rising in Florida, BA.5 omicron variant now dominant -- COVID-19 is rising again across Florida after a couple of weeks ofappearing to slow down, new federal data showed Friday. Coronavirus patient counts broke above 4,000 this week for the first time since Feb. 17. Hospitals statewide tended to 4,046 COVID-positive patients Friday, the U.S. Health and Human Services Department reported. COVID patient tallies grew by more than 100 a week in late June, but has spiked by more than 300 weekly since July 4.Hospitalizations and case counts have grown so much that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends indoor masking in almost every part of Florida to prevent strain on local medical facilities. There are few big exceptions, such as Collier County — home to Naples — along with Glades and Flagler counties, and parts of the western Panhandle.Cities, counties and schools in Florida cannot enforce indoor mask requirements because of executive orders and laws Gov. Ron DeSantis signed last year. In April, a federal judge appointed by former President Donald Trump struck down the CDC’s mask requirements for trains, planes and buses.Cases climbed statewide by an average of more than 73,000 a week over the past two weeks, state Health Department figures released Friday show. That’s slightly lower than the weekly averages Florida health officials have logged since June 17.But many infections these days go unreported with the rise of at-home testing.The nation's leading infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said Tuesday that the increased hospitalizations — including an uptick in the number of COVID-19 patients who wind up in intensive care units — likely reflected a big rise in the number of unreported infections. Still, other official data points show a COVID resurgence, driven by the latest strain of an omicron subvariant, dubbed BA.5.
Doctors say omicron’s BA.5 is the worst subvariant in Las Vegas yet — BA.5 has become the dominant subvariant of COVID-19 in Las Vegas. Health officials are reporting a slight decrease in hospitalizations and cases, but concerns are rising. This subvariant variant is the most transmissible yet. Karen Connors is a valley resident, and she says she is changing her behaviors and taking extra precautions. "There are so many people sick in the valley right now, so I’m wearing my mask again," Connors said. Connors says she is not going anywhere now without it and the new variant of COVID-19, BA.5, is to blame. "It's scary when I went to get my second shot the pharmacist said the virus has mutated 200 times already," Connors said. Dr. Brian Labus, an Infectious Diseases Epidemiologist and Assistant Professor at UNLV says that even if you are vaccinated it has never been easier to get infected with COVID-19. The reason why is BA.5. "Every time there is a variant it is going to be more contagious than the previous variant because it has to outcompete it," said Dr. Labus. He says this is the dominant variant in Southern Nevada right now and it's responsible for more than half of the cases in Clark County. This clever variant can evade our current vaccines. The CDC says BA.5 is at least 20% more infectious than omicron and as contagious as measles, the world’s most infectious viral disease and even if you are fully vaccinated, he says you can still get the virus. "It can still help protect you, even if you wind up sick, people who are vaccinated tend to have a milder disease,” Labus said. Doctors say if you plan to go out in large crowds the likelihood of getting this subvariant is high. For this reason, Karen says going out can wait. "The show is not going anywhere so we can wait till things calm down again, no concerts indoors, no shows, and trying to be careful," Connors said. Health experts say an updated vaccine targeting BA.5 is in the works, and we can expect to see it this fall. If you are contemplating, getting vaccinated or boosted health officials say to discuss it with your doctor.
WHO: Don’t act like the pandemic is ending - The World Health Organization’s (WHO) director-general this week issued a word of caution to countries and people who have ceased practicing COVID-19 safety measures, saying the pandemic is far from over.WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Tuesday expressed his concerns that the international response to the coronavirus pandemic was now lagging, pointing to an observed reduction in virus surveillance and the mismanaged deployment of vaccines and treatments.“The virus is running freely and countries are not effectively managing the disease burden based on their capacity, in terms of both hospitalization for acute cases and the expanding number of people with post COVID-19 condition — often referred to as long COVID,” Tedros said.He called on governments to reverse the recent reductions in surveillance, testing and virus sequencing.The WHO leader noted how the BA.4 and BA.5 omicron subvariants — now dominant in many countries, including the U.S. — have recently driven waves of hospitalizations and deaths globally.“New waves of the virus demonstrate again that the COVID-19 is nowhere near over,” Tedros said.The spread of BA.5 has caused concerns among public health experts and authorities as the subvariant is believed to be more infectious and better at evading protection from vaccines and prior infections.Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious diseases expert, said Tuesday the new BA.5 subvariant that now makes up a majority of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is something to take seriously but shouldn’t “disrupt our lives.”“It’s something that, A, we don’t panic on, B, we don’t let it disrupt our lives, but we take it seriously enough and utilize the tools that we have to mitigate,” he said at a White House briefing.
French COVID-19 deaths pass 150,000 as Omicron BA.5 subvariant erupts across Europe - The upsurge of COVID-19 in France and across Europe is a catastrophe for which President Emmanuel Macron and fellow European governments are responsible. Having repealed all measures to limit the spread of the virus this spring, they have left the population defenseless against a new wave now infecting millions in France and tens of millions across Europe.Of a population of 67.4 million, France has confirmed 32.1 million cases of COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic, including 19 million from last December to last March, and 2 million over just the last month. On Friday, cases in France had increased 45 percent over the previous seven days. Currently, France has 2 million confirmed active cases of COVID-19.Despite the availability of life-saving vaccines, such a massive level of infection exacts a devastating toll. Over 25,000 people have died of COVID-19 so far this year in France, including 1,200 people in the past month, and on Sunday the death toll in the country surpassed 150,000, according to the Worldometer tracker. Recurring waves of mass infection are also leaving millions in France with life-altering Long COVID, which affects an estimated 10-30 percent of COVID-19 patients.The current wave is driven by the highly infectious and immune-evading Omicron BA.5 subvariant, which accounted for 67 percent of cases in France in the last week of June. Infections are exploding across the country, with the seven-day average of daily new cases increasing more than eight-fold since June 12, from 14,561 to over 127,000.Compared to previous Omicron subvariants, vaccines are less effective against BA.5, symptoms last longer at an average of 7-10 days, and one can be infectious for longer. In addition to these properties, BA.5 has been able to spread rapidly in France’s highly vaccinated population, even though the country just experienced two recent waves of mass infection, due to the complete removal of social distancing guidelines and mask mandates.France is, moreover, only the worst-hit country as COVID-19 explodes across Europe. Over the past month, the number of confirmed active COVID-19 cases have more than doubled to 1.7 million in Germany, 1.3 million in Italy, a half-million in Britain, and 130,000 in both the Netherlands and Belgium. Almost every country on the continent is experiencing a massive wave of infections that will soon rival that of the Omicron BA.1 surge last winter.
Shanghai fears second lockdown as China battles BA.5 covid variant - The arrival of the BA.5 coronavirus variant in China is threatening economically damaging lockdowns across the country, including in Shanghai, where many residents only recently emerged from a grueling two months of confinement in their homes.Over the weekend, the country’s most populous city confirmed that the increasingly dominant subvariant of omicron had arrived only weeks after officials declared victory against the coronavirus following a citywide lockdown.Even though total numbers of infections in China remain low compared with many other countries — the National Health Commission on Monday reported 352 locally transmitted cases — Beijing remains deeply concerned that the highly transmissible subvariant’s arrival will lead to a mass outbreak and a wave of deaths, especially among the under-vaccinated elderly population.Shanghai authorities quickly tried to ease fears of a return to April and May, when the city’s reputation as a smoothly run international financial hub was shattered by China’s most disruptive coronavirus restrictions since the initial outbreak in Wuhan.In response to questions about whether another large-scale lockdown was imminent, the government said on the social media app WeChat that the plan was only to conduct PCR tests for all residents in nine of the city’s 16 districts. While only one street had been designated high risk, 37 were deemed medium risk on Monday, meaning residents are not allowed to leave their homes. On the microblogging platform Weibo, many noted that Shanghai officials had made similar denials about a wider lockdown in March. “Originally I half believed them. As soon as there was a denial, I rushed to stock up on goods,” read a comment that received more than 10,000 likes. Growing concern from residents has clashed with continued upbeat messaging from propagandists. On Friday, the local government launched a month-long campaign to collect pictures, videos and objects to tell a “heartwarming” story of the city’s lockdown, according to the Shanghai edition of Wen Wei Po, a Hong Kong-based state-run outlet.
COVID-19 killed more people in Quebec during the first 6 months of 2022 than all of 2021 - The number of people killed by COVID-19 in the province of Quebec during the first 6 months of 2022 already exceeds the number of pandemic dead for all of 2021. According to figures from the National Institute of Public Health compiled by the Montreal daily La Presse, 3,471 Quebecers died of COVID-19 between January 1 and June 28, 2022, while the number of deaths for the entire year of 2021 was 3,273. The increase in deaths is linked to a massive increase in infections since the beginning of the year. In 2021, the province officially recorded 642,930 COVID-19 cases. Since January 2022, 1,088,743 cases have been reported. Even the latter extraordinary number is a vast underestimate. Most testing facilities were shut down last winter, even as a fifth Omicron-driven pandemic wave was ravaging Quebec, and access to the more reliable PCR tests was severely curtailed. The COVID-19 death curve is rising dangerously throughout Canada. In a July 4 tweet, Dr. Amit Arya, a palliative care physician in Toronto, explained that in the first 181 days of this year Canada’s COVID death toll reached 82.5 percent of the number of COVID fatalities in all of 2021. At 62.6, the average number of daily deaths is higher than during the pandemic’s first 300 days in 2020 and all 2021. Last week, health officials in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia acknowledged that their provinces are facing a new wave of COVID-19 infections. Ontario, the country’s most populous province, announced last Thursday increases in the 7-day daily averages of cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The COVID test positivity rate is at its highest since early May, at 13.5 percent. The World Health Organization considers that the pandemic is out of control when the positivity rate is above 5 percent. For several weeks now, it has been clear that Quebec is in the grip of a new Omicron-variant driven wave, the seventh since the beginning of the pandemic in the spring of 2020. Last Thursday, as 20 fatalities were added to the province’s grim tally of 15,646 COVID deaths, a 67 percent increase in deaths was reported in the preceding 7 days. Hospitalizations and the number of people in intensive care are also up, by 18 percent and 8 percent respectively. The public health care system— in a permanent state of disrepair due to the savage austerity measures imposed for decades by federal and provincial governments—is once again on the verge of collapse. As of July 7, 7,318 health care workers in Quebec were absent due to COVID-19, an increase of more than 1,000 over the previous week and nearly 3,000 since the beginning of June. These absences directly related to COVID-19 are in addition to the chronic staff shortages caused by the deplorable working conditions that have been imposed by the right-wing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government, led by the multi-millionaire former airline CEO François Legault, with the full complicity of the trade unions.
Pandemic fueled surge in superbug infections and deaths, CDC says - The coronavirus pandemic caused a surge in superbug infections and deaths in U.S. hospitals, reversing years of progress fighting one of thegravest public health challenges in modern medicine, according to a new analysis released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.In 2020, the first year of the pandemic, infections and deaths among several serious pathogens increased about 15 percent overall from 2019, the report said. Infections of one especially dangerous drug-resistant bacteria that causes bloodstream and urinary tract infections skyrocketed 78 percent in one year.The report analyzed antimicrobial resistance in the United States, focusing specifically on superbug infections that started in hospitals.Public health efforts had driven down these resistant infections in hospitals by nearly 30 percent between 2012 and 2017. But in 2020, the pandemic pushed hospitals, health departments and communities “near their breaking points,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky wrote in the report.Sicker patients overwhelmed hospitals. They needed more frequent and longer use of medical devices, such as catheters and ventilators. Devices that break the body’s natural protective barrier — the skin — increase infection risk.Clinicians unfamiliar with the new covid-19 disease relied heavily on antibiotics as the first option to treat patients with fever and shortness of breath — symptoms of the viral illness. From March 2020 to October 2020, almost 80 percent of patients hospitalized with covid-19 received an antibiotic, the report said. Those lifesaving drugs work against bacteria, not against viruses. High levels of antibiotic prescribing can put patients at risk for side effects and allow drug-resistance to develop and spread.In addition, hospitals faced severe shortages of staff and personal protective equipment, especially the higher-quality N95 masks that offer the best protection. In some places, hospital personnel used parts purchased from Home Depot and craft stores to create protective face shields for workers. Overwhelmed staff had difficulty following infection prevention and control protocols, the report said. Many personnel were pulled away from infection control to help take care of patients with covid-19. That created a kind of double whammy: fewer staff members to prevent infections treating more patients at risk for them.“In addition to having devastating impacts for the millions of people who got covid and the millions of people who died of covid, the covid pandemic had a profound and far-reaching impact on the safety of patients in the United States,” said Arjun Srinivasan, the top CDC official leading the agency’s prevention efforts to control superbugs. “One of the knock-on effects of covid … is with these antibiotic-resistant infections, infections that are very difficult to treat, in some cases untreatable, with very high rates of mortality.” Some patients recovered from their covid-19 illness, he said, only to face “a horrible outcome”: dying from a drug-resistant infection. In 2020, more than 29,400 people died of antimicrobial-resistant infections commonly associated with health care, the report found. Of these, nearly 40 percent acquired the infection while hospitalized. The remaining infections occurred outside the hospital, including in nursing homes and other community health-care facilities. Because of limited data, the CDC does not know how many people who died of superbug infections also had covid-19.
COVID-19 pandemic fuels largest continued backslide in vaccinations in three decades - The largest sustained decline in childhood vaccinations in approximately 30 years has been recorded in official data published today by WHO and UNICEF. The percentage of children who received three doses of the vaccine against diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (DTP3) – a marker for immunization coverage within and across countries – fell 5 percentage points between 2019 and 2021 to 81 per cent. As a result, 25 million children missed out on one or more doses of DTP through routine immunization services in 2021 alone. This is 2 million more than those who missed out in 2020 and 6 million more than in 2019, highlighting the growing number of children at risk from devastating but preventable diseases. The decline was due to many factors including an increased number of children living in conflict and fragile settings where immunization access is often challenging, increased misinformation and COVID-19 related issues such as service and supply chain disruptions, resource diversion to response efforts, and containment measures that limited immunization service access and availability. “This is a red alert for child health. We are witnessing the largest sustained drop in childhood immunization in a generation. The consequences will be measured in lives,” said Catherine Russell, UNICEF Executive Director. “While a pandemic hangover was expected last year as a result of COVID-19 disruptions and lockdowns, what we are seeing now is a continued decline. COVID-19 is not an excuse. We need immunization catch-ups for the missing millions or we will inevitably witness more outbreaks, more sick children and greater pressure on already strained health systems.” 18 million of the 25 million children did not receive a single dose of DTP during the year, the vast majority of whom live in low- and middle-income countries, with India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Ethiopia and the Philippines recording the highest numbers. Among countries1 with the largest relative increases in the number of children who did not receive a single vaccine between 2019 and 2021 are Myanmar and Mozambique. Globally, over a quarter of the coverage of HPV vaccines that was achieved in 2019 has been lost. This has grave consequences for the health of women and girls, as global coverage of the first dose of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is only 15%, despite the first vaccines being licensed over 15 years ago. It was hoped that 2021 would be a year of recovery during which strained immunization programmes would rebuild and the cohort of children missed in 2020 would be caught-up. Instead, DTP3 coverage was set back to its lowest level since 2008 which, along with declines in coverage for other basic vaccines, pushed the world off-track to meet global goals, including the immunization indicator for the Sustainable Development Goals. This historic backsliding in rates of immunization is happening against a backdrop of rapidly rising rates of severe acute malnutrition. A malnourished child already has weakened immunity and missed vaccinations can mean common childhood illnesses quickly become lethal to them. The convergence of a hunger crisis with a growing immunization gap threatens to create the conditions for a child survival crisis.
‘Disturbing’: weedkiller ingredient tied to cancer found in 80% of US urine samples More than 80% of urine samples drawn from children and adults in a US health study contained a weedkilling chemical linked to cancer, a finding scientists have called “disturbing” and “concerning”. The report by a unit of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that out of 2,310 urine samples, taken from a group of Americans intended to be representative of the US population, 1,885 were laced with detectable traces of glyphosate. This is the active ingredient in herbicides sold around the world, including the widely used Roundup brand. Almost a third of the participants were children ranging from six to 18. ----- Sheppard co-authored a 2019 analysis that found glyphosate exposure increases the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma [a kind of cancer], and also co-authored a 2019 scientific paper that reviewed 19 studies documenting glyphosate in human urine. Both the amount and prevalence of glyphosate found in human urine has been rising steadily since the 1990s when Monsanto Co. introduced genetically engineered crops designed to be sprayed directly with Roundup, according to research published in 2017 by University of California San Diego School of Medicine researchers. ----- More than 200 million pounds of glyphosate are used annually by US farmers on their fields. The weedkiller is sprayed directly over genetically engineered crops such as corn and soybeans, and also over non-genetically engineered crops such as wheat and oats as a desiccant to dry crops out prior to harvest. Many farmers also use it on fields before the growing season, including spinach growers and almond producers. It is considered the most widely used herbicide in history. Residues of glyphosate have been documented in an array of popular foods made with crops sprayed with glyphosate, including baby food. The primary route of exposure for children is through the diet. ----- “Children are more heavily exposed to pesticides than adults because pound-for-pound they drink more water, eat more food and breathe more air,” Landrigan said. “Also, children have many years of future life when they can develop diseases with long incubation periods such as cancer. This is particularly a concern with the herbicide, glyphosate.”
Fears over new outbreak of one of world's deadliest diseases in Africa: Two patients 'die from Marburg virus' that causes 90% of patients to bleed to death from their nose, mouth and eyes - Two people are believed to have died from the extremely deadly Marburg virus in Ghana as officials gear up for a potential outbreak.The patients, from the country's southern Ashanti region, were not known to each other, suggesting the disease is spreading more widely.Initial tests came back positive for the virus and the samples are being reanalysed by the World Health Organization (WHO). If confirmed, it would mark only the second time Marburg has been detected in West Africa, after a small outbreak in Guinea last year.The WHO is sending experts to support Ghanaian health officials and track down the close contacts of the victims. A deadly cousin of Ebola, Marburg kills between a quarter and 90 per cent of everyone who gets infected. The highly-infectious pathogen has been touted as the next big pandemic threat, with the WHO describing it as 'epidemic-prone'.Infected patients become 'ghost-like', often developing deep-set eyes and expressionless faces. This is usually accompanied by bleeding from multiple orifices — including the nose, gums, eyes and vagina. Dr Francis Kasolo, the WHO representative in Ghana, said: 'The health authorities are on the ground investigating the situation and preparing for a possible outbreak response.'We are working closely with the country to ramp up detection, track contacts, be ready to control the spread of the virus.' Officials said the two Ghanaian patients suffered diarrhoea, fever, nausea and vomiting. Their ages and sex have not been revealed.
14 Monkeypox Cases in Dallas County Residents, 1 Confirmed Case in Tarrant County – Dallas County Health and Human Services (DCHHS) is reporting a total of 14 monkeypox cases in Dallas County residents since the start of the outbreak, including local transmission connected to a previously reported incident of local exposure. DCHHS provides public updates on the number of confirmed monkeypox cases in Dallas County residents here:https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/monkeypox.php The threat of monkeypox to the general Dallas County population remains low. Monkeypox is rare and does not spread easily between people without close, personal, skin-to-skin contact. Men who have sex with men and who engage in high-risk sexual activities make up a larger proportion of cases identified to date. However, the risk is not limited to the LGBTQ community, and anyone who has been in close contact with someone who has monkeypox is at risk. The monkeypox vaccine is now in low supply and can only be offered to those with known skin-to-skin contact with a confirmed monkeypox case.Yesterday, Tarrant County reported their first case of monkeypox. However, they did not state whether it was a case associated with recent travel or if it was suspected to be local transmission. Monkeypox is spread through contact with body fluids, monkeypox sores, or shared items (such as clothing and bedding) that have been contaminated with fluids or sores of a person with monkeypox. Monkeypox virus can also spread between people through respiratory droplets typically in a close setting, such as people living in the same household or in a healthcare setting. Persons with monkeypox may develop symptoms such as a fever, swollen lymph nodes, and general body aches before developing a rash. People should seek medical attention if they develop symptoms of monkeypox.
New York City to open mass monkeypox vaccination sites - CBS New York (video report) After a bumpy rollout, New York City has a new plan to give out the monkeypox vaccine. As CBS2's Ali Bauman reports, there will soon be more appointments in more neighborhoods.
Georgia health officials concerned about rapid spread of monkeypox across state – — The Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now reporting 69 confirmed monkeypox cases in Georgia, up from 49 yesterday.This comes as the federal Food and Drug Administration announced it’s cleared the way for transport of nearly 1 million doses of monkeypox vaccine from Europe to the United States.Georgia health officials are concerned over the rapid spread of the illness but also point out that the disease is rarely fatal, and most patients recover within a few weeks.Still, state epidemiologist Dr. Cherie Drenzek said they are keeping a close eye on the outbreak.“Whenever we see an infectious disease spread rapidly around the globe, it’s always a concern,” Drenzek said. “We need to be prudent about preparation and response to any infectious disease outbreak.Drenzek and the Georgia Department of Public Health said most of the patients are men though the disease can be spread to anyone via close personal contact particularly through the signature rash and lesions.“The direct physical contact with this rash is really what is the main risk factor here,” Drenzek said. “It’s really the rash itself.”Health experts say that rash and lesions are often accompanied by fever, headache and back pain. They also point out that so far, there are no reported deaths from monkeypox anywhere in the U.S.Drenzek added that monkeypox is related to smallpox, a disease eradicated from the planet decades ago, so, she said, they know how to fight it.“All the tools that we used to respond to monkeypox are the same tools that we use to respond to any infectious disease outbreak including Covid,” Drenzek said. “All of those tried-and-true tools can be reassuring to everyone thinking about responding to an infectious disease outbreak. We know again, how to do it.”
1st Monkeypox case confirmed in Tulare County, health officials say - ABC30 Fresno - Health officials have confirmed the first case of Monkeypox in Tulare County. Dr. Karen Haught with the Tulare County Department of Public Health says the person is isolated and recovering at home."It is important for our community to be informed on emerging public health threats like monkeypox; however, currently the risk to the general public is low," says Dr. Karen Haught, Tulare County Public Health Officer.Monkeypox is a rare disease.The CDC said transmission among humans happens through close person-to-person contact with the infected area of those who have the illness
The U.S. May Be Losing the Fight Against Monkeypox, Scientists Say - As epidemics go, the monkeypox outbreak should have been relatively easy to snuff out. The virus does not spread efficiently except through intimate contact, and tests and vaccines were at hand even before the current outbreak.Yet the response in the United States has been sluggish and timid, reminiscent of the early days of the Covid pandemic, experts say, raising troubling questions about the nation’s preparedness for pandemic threats.The first cases of monkeypox were reported in May, but tests will not be readily available until sometime this month. Vaccines will be in short supply for months longer. Surveillance is spotty, and official case counts are likely a gross underestimate.There are already at least 700 cases in the United States, but experts say the real number is likely to be much higher. There probably will be many more infections before the outbreak can be controlled, if at this point it can be controlled at all.“Why is it so hard for something that’s even a known pathogen?” asked Anne Rimoin, an epidemiologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who first warned of monkeypox outbreaks more than a decade ago. “How many more times do we have to go through this?”With increasing travel and trade, new pathogens will emerge more frequently, Dr. Rimoin said: “We’ve been hitting the snooze button on emerging diseases for decades. The alarm is going off, and it’s time to wake up.”The obstacles to preparedness are systemic, at every level of government, rather than because of any one individual or agency, Dr. Rimoin and other experts said. Even as the coronavirus pandemic drags into its third year, the public health system in the United States remains a hamstrung patchwork, an underfunded bureaucracy seemingly incapable of swift and forceful action. Its shortcomings have persisted for decades, through many administrations. The United States estimated in 2010, for example, that in the event of a bioterrorist attack, 132 million doses of a vaccine for smallpox and monkeypox would be required for those who cannot safely take an older-generation vaccine with harsh side effects. Yet two months after the current outbreak began, the strategic national stockpile holds just 64,000 doses.The situation “reveals the failure in the U.S. to take public health seriously,” said Zain Rizvi, who studies access to medicines at the advocacy group Public Citizen. “Do we ever run out of fighter jets?” It’s often unclear which agency is ultimately responsible for a particular aspect of the response. The strategic national stockpile used to be under the purview of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for example. The Trump administration handed it to a different agency, yet the C.D.C. still makes decisions about who should get the vaccine and when. State and county-level health departments often set their own rules and priorities, sometimes at odds with federal guidance. “The machine is just so ossified,” said Gregg Gonsalves, an activist and epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health. The “house is on fire, and it’s like everything is moving at sort of normal speed.”
San Francisco at risk of an ‘uncontrolled monkeypox spread,’ lawmaker says -- California state Sen. Scott Wiener (D) said in a statement Thursday that the city of San Francisco is veering toward a public health crisis due to the uncontrolled spread of the monkeypox virus. The city’s Department of Public Health (DPH) tweeted Wednesday that its walk-in clinic will close for the remainder of the week due to the vaccine shortage. Other city clinics are working through remaining appointments and joining the DPH in “urgently asking for more doses.” As of Wednesday afternoon, more than 1,700 San Francisco residents had been vaccinated against the virus, according to the San Francisco DPH.Wiener said the vaccination rate will continue to be slow, which will cause a spread in the city and surrounding communities. He said “failure to control this outbreak” will harm residents, especially the city’s LGBTQ+ community. “We need an enormous amount of additional vaccine doses, and we need it immediately. The federal government’s failures are threatening to deeply harm our community,” Wiener added. “Once we move past this emergency, we need accountability for these failures — failures that put people’s lives and health in jeopardy.”Wiener’s statement comes after former New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio (D) called on the federal government Monday to ramp up its access to monkeypox vaccines as cases of the virus continue to spread throughout the country. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there are more than 1,000 monkeypox cases in 41 U.S. states as of Wednesday afternoon. “Invoke the Defense Production Act to fill the need for vaccines in the US,” De Blasio, who officially announced his run to represent New York’s 10th Congressional District last month, wrote in his thread. “There really is no time to waste in a crisis like this, and there is so much that federal and city officials can do right now to get control of this crisis.”
Monkeypox patient details symptoms: 'Worst pain I've ever experienced' - At first, I thought it was just jet lag. I'd been traveling in Italy for a friend's wedding, and had been enjoying events at Pride in New York City. So I assumed the fatigue was just my body telling me, "Hey, we need a break." I started to feel a little more flu-ish over the next few days, and because I knew monkeypox was going around, I had a moment of panic. But I didn't have any sores at that point and my symptoms subsided within a week.Things changed after the Fourth of July weekend when I started feeling a bit itchy down south. Then I developed sores on my face that looked like bad acne. And my partner noticed some sexually transmitted infection-like symptoms, too. At that point, it was pretty clear that something was not right.Finally, I took a step back and realized this could actually be monkeypox.My partner and I both got doctor's appointments on the same day. He was diagnosed first, so I knew my diagnosis was likely coming soonFirst, I chatted with someone through my doctor's office's 24-hour call center and ran through my symptoms. In talking to them, it really sounded like I had monkeypox, but they still needed to confirm it in person, which involved somewhat aggressively collecting samples from my sores.While I was at the office, the doctor asked if one of their colleagues could take a look because they'd never seen monkeypox before. I gave them my permission because I recognized it as an important opportunity to educate the medical world so they would be better prepared for other patients. But I also felt like that moment was a bit of a letdown for me. If I'm literally the first case of monkeypox you've ever seen, how can I rely on you as an expert to help me get through this?The pain from the sores is probably the worst pain I've experienced in my life. It's been so painful that there have been moments where I felt like I might pass out. It's been challenging to find comfortable sleeping and sitting positions because the sores are just excruciating.Basically any upright sitting position put a ton of pressure on my butt to the point that it was extremely uncomfortable because of the anal sores. Every secondary sore or lesion is much easier, so it doesn’t help that the worst blisters are in a painful place. And I’ve heard that the anal blistering is more painful than oral or genital. I’ve been taking as much over-the-counter pain medication as I’m allowed and using topical lidocaine to ease some of the pain. My hands are dry from washing them so frequently, and I don't want to use any of my usual body or skin care products because I don't want to risk spreading the virus anywhere.
Monkeypox outbreak was avoidable and we ignored the warning signs, expert says - Monkeypox has been a developing problem for decades and the current global outbreak was avoidable, but the looming threat was largely ignored, according to a leading expert on the virus.Dr. Anne Rimoin is a UCLA epidemiology professor and has spent the last two decades in the Democratic Republic of Congo working on monkeypox.She said it was only when the virus spread beyond rural Africa that it sparked a global response."This virus has been spreading in marginalized and vulnerable populations [in Africa] for decades, and we've done nothing about it," Rimoin said. "We have known that monkeypox is a potential problem for decades."There are now confirmed cases in Europe, Asia, Australia, Africa, the Middle East and South America. The Centers for Disease Control says there are more than 750 monkeypox cases in the U.S. — across almost every state — but Rimoin said this was certainly an undercount because there was not enough testing available.Monkeypox is rarely fatal and doesn't generally lead to hospitalization. It is mostly not spread through the air, and people have been getting it from close physical contact.So public health experts say the U.S. should have been able to handle the outbreak, and that the missteps right now look a lot like the start of the coronavirus pandemic: not enough tests or vaccines readily available, and an incomplete picture of the spread."We have no concept of the scale of the monkeypox outbreak in the U.S.," biologist Joseph Osmundson at New York University told NPR in June.In response, in late June the CDC said it would "lean forward with an aggressive public health response to the monkeypox outbreak" and activate its emergency operations center.And on Monday, the CDC said commercial laboratories had now started testing for monkeypox.
Cloned mice created from freeze dried skin cells in world first - Researchers have created cloned mice from freeze dried skin cells in a world first that aims to help conservationists revive populations of endangered species. The breakthrough paves the way for countries to store skin cells from animals as an insurance policy, as the cells can be used to create clones that boost the species’ genetic diversity if they become threatened with extinction in the future. Many dwindling species suffer from inbreeding that drives up the risk of birth defects, but the loss of genetic diversity can also make animals more vulnerable to other threats, such as diseases, which exacerbate the pressures they face. While scientists have used frozen cells to produce clones for conservation projects, the cells are kept in liquid nitrogen which is expensive and risky: if there are power outages or the liquid nitrogen is not regularly topped up, the cells melt and become unusable. Freeze dried sperm can also be used to create clones, but cannot be obtained from all animals. “If these cells can be preserved without liquid nitrogen using freeze-drying technology, it allows genetic resources from around the world to be stored cheaply and safely,” said Prof Teruhiko Wakayama who led the work at the University of Yamanashi in Japan. “Developing countries will be able to store their own valuable genetic resources in their own countries. Also, even in endangered species where only males survive, this technology can be used to create females to revive the species.” In the latest work, researchers froze dried skin cells from mouse tails and stored them for up to nine months before trying to create clones from them. The freeze-drying processes killed the cells, but the scientists found they could still create early stage cloned embryos by inserting the dead cells into mouse eggs that had their own nuclei removed. These early stage mouse embryos, known as blastocysts, were used to create stocks of stem cells that were put through another round of cloning. The stem cells were inserted into mouse eggs emptied of their own nuclei, leading to embryos that surrogate mice carried to term. The first cloned mouse, named Dorami after a melon bread-loving robot in the Doraemon Manga series, was followed by 74 more. To check whether the clones had healthy fertility, nine females and three males were bred with normal mice. All the females went on to have litters.
Bird flu found in Bend; bird quarantine issued - The Oregon Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed the state’s fifth case of highly pathogenic avian influenza, or bird flu, in Deschutes County, and has called for a regional quarantine of birds in Bend and the surrounding area. The disease was detected in a noncommercial flock affecting about 30 chickens and 40 ducks and geese, the Oregon Department of Agriculture said in a news release Tuesday. The quarantine includes the city of Bend and much of the outlying area. The U.S. Department of Agriculture classified the birds as poultry instead of a backyard flock because the flock’s owner sold eggs to the public, making a regional quarantine necessary. Additionally, federal and international disease control protocol requires the state veterinarian to issue a regional quarantine, the release said. The quarantine is meant to prevent affected poultry and poultry products from moving outside of the region so federal officials can make sure there are no other cases of bird flu. The quarantine also applies to importing birds from states where a state or federal quarantine is in place. Digital subscription only $3 per week There is no immediate public health concern, and agriculture officials euthanized the birds on the affected property to prevent spread of the disease, the release added. Four previous cases of bird flu in backyard flocks were reported in Oregon this year, with the first being reported May 6, in Linn County. One additional case in Linn County and two other cases in Lane and Polk counties were reported.
Bird Flu May Have Caused Seal Strandings in Maine - The highly pathogenic avian influenza strain that has whipped through flocks of domestic poultry and wild birds this year may also be to blame for a spike in seal strandings in Maine, U.S. officials said on Wednesday. Samples from four recently stranded seals — all of which died or were sick enough to require euthanasia — tested positive for the virus. The strain, officially known as Eurasian H5N1, primarily affects birds. After causing outbreaks in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia, the virus arrived in North America late last year and quickly spread to commercial poultry farms and along migratory bird routes. The recent outbreaks involving the latest version of the virus have taken a much greater toll on wild birds than previous cycles did. And that has put mammals that feed on wild birds, or have close contact with them, at risk. Scientists have now found the virus in a variety of wild mammals in North America, including foxes, bobcats, skunks and raccoons.“The seal is the first marine mammal that we’ve seen on the spillover end,” Dr. Julianna Lenoch, a national wildlife disease program coordinator for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said at a news briefing on Wednesday. “But this is not unexpected to have bird flu move into mammalian species on occasion.” Workers with Marine Mammals of Maine, an organization that responds to reports of stranded sea creatures, began noticing an unusually high number of stranded seals last month. From May 10 to July 4, 92 gray and harbor seals were reported stranded in Maine. Many of the seals were found dead. The current rate of dead seal strandings is roughly three times as high as normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Other stranded seals were ill, with symptoms that included lethargy, sneezing and coughing. Some also had seizures — a symptom that has been reported in fox kits infected with avian influenza.Marine Mammals of Maine sent samples from eight stranded seals to Tufts University for laboratory testing, Lynda Doughty, the organization’s executive director, said at the briefing. Four tested positive for the virus. Most of the strandings so far have been reported in mid-to-southern Maine. “But there is the potential for this to spread across our coast as live animals move,” said Ainsley Smith, the coordinator for stranded marine mammals at N.O.A.A.’s Greater Atlantic regional fisheries office.Viruses have been responsible for other mass stranding events among marine mammals, and previous versions of avian influenzahave caused fatal outbreaks in seals. The seals are likely catching the virus when they come into close contact with infected birds, or virus-laden bird droppings, after coming ashore, Dr. Deborah Fauquier, a veterinary medical officer at N.O.A.A, said in an email. Officials have not found any bird remains in the stomachs of the seals that have been necropsied, she added. Seals can spread at least some versions of the flu to other seals. However, there is not yet any evidence that this has happened in Maine, said Bryan Richards, the emerging disease coordinator at the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Wildlife Health Center.
Dead birds falling from the sky is a bad omen for the planet - Political paralysis, looming recession and climate change: dark metaphorical clouds are hanging over Britain – and now dead birds are falling from the sky. Take a walk along a beach in Scotland or down the east coast of England this summer and you are likely to find the bodies of sick seabirds washed up on the shore. In Brighton last weekend a seagull dropped dead mid-flight. If this feels particularly apocalyptic, even by 2022’s standards, then it should. “The last nine months have been unprecedented,” an RSPB officer said. “We have never seen anything like this before.” The deaths are the result of a new variant of H5N1, a strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza, or “bird flu”. Low-pathogenic bird flu circulates naturally and causes no signs of disease in wild waterbirds, but the crowded conditions of intensive poultry farms can cause the virus to mutate into a deadly form. The origins of this particular strain have been traced to a farm in the Guangdong region of China in 1996. Since then, it has spilled over to wild birds and travelled westwards to Europe, Africa and, more recently, North America, via the movement of poultry and wild migration. Desperate measures, including mass poultry culls, have been used for decades to try to contain the disease, but the recent variant is now killing wild birds at alarming speed. At first it seemed to be limited to small outbreaks during winter, mainly in ducks, geese and swans, explains the RSPB’s Martin Fowlie. Then, this past winter, the spread didn’t stop with the spring as experts had hoped. Birds from previously uninfected species are now dying in vast quantities – from gannets to roseate terns to great skuas (of which the UK is home to half the global population).
Study provides new clues to killer frog disease - A new study aiming to unlock the secrets of a disease devastating frog populations has turned up some unexpected results, which may change how scientists combat the outbreak.James Cook University biologist Dr. Donald McKnight said the disease chytridiomycosis has caused declines or extinctions in over 500 species of amphibians worldwide."But not all amphibian species are susceptible to chytridiomycosis, and some species and populations that underwent initial declines are surviving or increasing, despite the continued presence of the pathogen," said Dr. McKnight.He said, as an example, Australian lace-lid frog populations were wiped out in upland sites and remain absent, while the waterfall frog had the same experience but, starting in the early 2000s, began recolonising upland sites. In contrast, the stony creek frog did not noticeably decline at any elevation."The reasons for these differences among species and populations are not entirely clear, but variations in microbiomes—the bacteria, fungi, and other microorganisms on the frogs—may play a key role," said Dr. McKnight.Scientists examined both the bacterial and fungal microbiomes of four Australian frog species from the same area which had different responses to chytridiomycosis.They found microbiomes were different for each frog species and that they may have played a role in patterns of declines and recoveries."The species that has shown the lowest ability to recover, lace-lids, was also the species with the fewest types of bacteria and fungi present on it. That matches what some other studies have found and suggests that diverse microbiomes may be important."What was really surprising, however, was that lace-lids also had high levels of anti-fungal bacteria that are thought to play a protective role against chytridiomycosis. In fact, the individuals with the highest levels of chytridiomycosis also tended to be the individuals with the highest levels of anti-fungal bacteria," said Dr. McKnight.He said the relative abundance of what had been thought of as protective, anti-fungal bacteria was highest in the Australian lace-lid frog and lowest in the waterfall frogdespite the fact that lace-lid populations have not recovered but waterfall frogs largely have.
NOAA: Breaching Snake River dams 'essential' to save salmon - The White House today touted a new analysis from federal scientists that found breaching a series of four dams in Washington state is “paramount” to efforts to restore salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest but stopped short of endorsing the action. Another report also highlighted by the Biden administration underscored the steep costs associated with removing the dams, including higher consumer energy bills and the need to replace as much as 2,700 megawatts of power. For more than 30 years, governments have poured billions of dollars into species mitigation efforts for salmon and steelhead populations in the Columbia River basin, but the fish remain on the verge of extinction due to warming waters and predators. In its draft report, NOAA recommended the breaching of the Ice Harbor, Lower Monumental, Little Goose and Lower Granite dams. “The importance of the comprehensive suite of actions listed above cannot be overstated. It is also important to recognize that, within this suite, several centerpiece actions are paramount for specific stocks,” the report states. “For Snake River stocks, it is essential that the lower Snake River be restored via dam breaching.” The report — which will be reviewed by state and tribal fisheries managers over the next 30 days before being finalized — also calls for establishing fish passage routes in the upper Columbia River, including the areas around Grand Coulee and Dworshak dams. But in a statement touting the draft’s release, the White House Council on Environmental Quality emphasized that “the administration has not endorsed the Columbia Basin Partnership Task Force’s goals at this time or the particular actions identified in today’s draft science report.” “Business as usual will not restore the health and abundance of Pacific Northwest salmon. We need a durable, inclusive, and regionally-crafted long-term strategy for the management of the Columbia River Basin,” CEQ Chair Brenda Mallory said in a statement. A draft proposal released last month by Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D) and Sen. Patty Murray (D) likewise highlighted the benefits of removing the earthen dams for fish populations but did not actually call for the dams immediate removal (Greenwire,, June 9). Mallory also pointed to the other report out today that examines the impacts of removing electric generation from those same four dams on the lower Snake River. “These two reports add to the picture — that we are working alongside regional leaders to develop — of what it will take over the decades ahead to restore salmon populations, honor our commitments to Tribal Nations, deliver clean power, and meet the many needs of stakeholders across the region,” she said.
NOAA broke law by not protecting right whales, judge rules - NOAA violated federal law by not doing enough to protect endangered North Atlantic right whales from entanglements caused by lobster fishing gear, a federal judge said Friday.In his ruling, Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia said the agency broke both the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) when it issued a biological opinion and a final rule that changed fishing gear requirements last year.Boasberg declared both the biological opinion and the rule “invalid” and said more needs to be done to protect the whales.The judge acknowledged that “this may seem a severe result” for both NOAA Fisheries and the lobster industry but added that “no actor here … operates free from the strict requirements imposed by the MMPA and ESA.”NOAA declined to comment.The ruling marked a win for the Center for Biological Diversity, the Conservation Law Foundation, and Defenders of Wildlife, groups that first sued NOAA in early 2018 over a prior biological opinion.“The court’s decision recognizes what NOAA Fisheries has ignored for decades — that Congress clearly intended to protect right whales from the lobster gear entanglements that are driving the species toward extinction just as surely as whaling nearly did,” said Jane Davenport, senior attorney at Defenders of Wildlife.Davenport said the opinion represented “the course correction the agency needs to put both the species and the fishery on a path towards sustainability and co-existence.”According to the conservation groups, only 336 of the whales remain, down from an estimated population of 455 in 2018.Even with the change made last year, they said, NOAA estimated that U.S. fisheries could still entangle more than 15 percent of the right whale population each year.
God's will or ecological disaster? Mexico takes aim at Mennonite deforestation (Reuters) - The largest tropical forest in North America yields to perfect rows of corn and soy. Light-haired women with blue eyes in wide-brimmed hats bump down a dirt road in a horse and buggy, past simple brick homes and a whitewashed schoolhouse: A Mennonite community in southern Mexico.Here, in the state of Campeche on the Yucatan Peninsula at the northern edge of the Maya Forest, the Mennonites say they live to traditional pacifist values and that expanding farms to provide a simple life for their families is the will of God.In the eyes of ecologists and now the Mexican government, which once welcomed their agricultural prowess, the Mennonites' farms are an environmental disaster rapidly razing the jungle, one of the continent's biggest carbon sinks and a home to endangered jaguars.Smaller only than the Amazon, the Maya Forest is shrinking annually by an area the size of Dallas, according to Global Forest Watch, a non-profit organisation that monitors deforestation.The government of President Andres Manuel Lopez is now pressuring the Mennonites to shift to more sustainable practices, but despite a deal between some Mennonite settlements and the government, ongoing land clearance was visible in two villages visited by Reuters in February and May.Farmers such as Isaak Dyck Thiessen, a leader in the Mennonite settlement of Chavi, are finding it hard to adjust."Our people just want to be left in peace," he said, standing on a shaded doorstep to escape the unforgiving afternoon sun. Beyond his neat farm rose the green wall of the rainforest.In search of land and isolation, Mennonites – for whom agricultural toil is a core tenet of their Christian faith – grew in numbers and expanded into remote parts of Mexico after first arriving from Canada in the early 20th Century. Despite shunning electricity and other modern amenities away from work, their farming has evolved to include bulldozers and chainsaws as well as tractors and harvesters.
California's trees are dying, and might not be coming back - The State of California is banking on its forests to help reduce planet-warming carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But that element of the state's climate-change solution arsenal may be in jeopardy, as new research from the University of California, Irvine reports that trees in California's mountain ranges and open spaces are dying from wildfires and other pressures—and fewer new trees are filling the void. "The forests are not keeping up with these large fires," said study co-author James Randerson. Across the entire state, tree cover area has declined 6.7 percent since 1985. "These are big changes in less than four decades," he said. It's the first time that researchers have been able to measure tree population declines in California, and attribute the changes to such pressures as wildfires, drought stress and logging. For the study, the UCI-led team used satellite data from the USGS and NASA's Landsat mission to study vegetation changes between 1985 and 2021. They found that one of the starkest declines in tree cover was in Southern California, where 14 percent of the tree population in local mountain ranges vanished, potentially permanently. "The ability of forests to recover from fire appears to be dwindling in the south," said Jonathan Wang, who led the study published in AGU Advances. "At the same time, the state's coverage of shrubs and grasses is rising, which could foreshadow more permanent ecosystem shifts." The rate and scale of decline varies across the state. Tree cover in the Sierra Nevada, for instance, stayed relatively stable until around 2010, then began dropping precipitously. The 8.8 percent die-off in the Sierra coincided with a severe drought from 2012 to 2015, followed by some of the worst wildfires in the state's history, including the Creek Fire in 2020. Fortunately "in the north, there's plenty of recovery after fire," said Wang, perhaps because of the region's higher rainfall and cooler temperatures. But even there, high fire years in 2018, 2020 and 2021 have taken a visible toll. The tree decline has also affected carbon storage abilities in the state, said Randerson, who added that the next step is to precisely quantify the impact on forests' ability to absorb anthropogenic carbon dioxide. Co-author Michael Goulden, a UCI professor of Earth system science and director of the Center for Ecosystem Climate Solutions, is using the data to understand how changes in forest cover are affecting water resources, carbon storage and fire behavior across the state. "This threat to California's climate solutions isn't going away anytime soon," Wang said. "We might be entering a new age of intense fire and vulnerable forests."
Satellite study shows most forests around the world are becoming less resilient to change - A small team of researchers with members from institutions in Italy, France and the U.S. has found that most forests around the world are becoming less resilient to environmental changes due to global warming. In their paper published in the journal Nature, the group describes their study of satellite pictures of forested parts of the planet over time.As the planet warms due to humanity's inability to stem greenhouse gas emissions, scientists around the world continue to study possible impacts. In recent years, a host of studies have shown that cutting down the trees in rain forests and other forests to make way for crops is detrimental to climate—forests produce oxygen and absorb carbon dioxide from the air and sequester it. Less work has been conducted to learn more about the impact of global warming on forests, though it has been noted that increases in temperatures and reduced moisture could make it difficult for some forests to survive. In this new effort, the researchers wondered whether such changes might also be making forests less resilient, degrading their ability to withstand temporary challenges such as floods, pests, droughts or pollution. To find out, they turned to years of satellite imagery.To learn more about the resilience of the world's forests, the researchers used a learning algorithm to sift through massive amounts of satellite data showing vegetation covering regions of the planet over the years 2000 to 2020. In their effort, they defined resilience as the ability of a forest to bounce back after a disruptive event. When such efforts fail, they note, the vegetation changes from forest to something else, such as savannah.They found that over half of all the forests in the world today show signs of decreases in resilience. They also found that global warming seems to be improving resilience in some trees, such as those in boreal forestsin the northern latitudes. The researchers found that the biggest factors in reducing resilience in forests were increases in average heat and decreases in available water.
As globe warms, infected pines starve and disease-causing fungi thrive - The high heat and low water conditions produced by global warming weaken pine trees' resistance to disease by hindering their ability to mount an effective defense at the same time that pathogenic fungi in their tissues become more aggressive, new research suggests. The study is the first to simultaneously examine metabolic gene expression in both host trees and the pathogens attacking them under normal and climate-change conditions. The findings help explain the mechanisms behind what has become a well-known fact: The warming world makes trees more susceptible to disease. The study was conducted on Austrian pines, which are native to southern Europe and used ornamentally in the United States. Researchers tested climate change conditions' effects on the trees after infection by two related fungi that have killed large swaths of these pines over time. "We decided to study the effects of the combined stresses of higher temperatures and lower water availability because that's what trees will experience in the future," said senior author Enrico Bonello, professor of molecular and chemical ecology of trees in The Ohio State University Department of Plant Pathology. "Within three days of infection under climate-change conditions, the tree was pulled in two different directions: It was deprived of carbon by both reduced photosynthesis and enhanced acquisition of the carbon by the fungi. When we're talking about carbon, we're talking about sugars, food and reserves for all other metabolic processes in the trees, including growth and defense." The research was published recently in the journal Frontiers in Forests and Global Change. Carbon sequestration by the world's forests is a major mitigator of climate change's effects, and could be accelerated if improvements are made to their protection, management and restoration, experts say. In a 2021 study of U.S. forest plots, scientists estimated recent disease and insect disturbances had lowered carbon sequestration rates by 28% and 69%, respectively, from 2001-2019 compared to undisturbed forests. "This is another reason to combat global warming induced by human activities—another piece of evidence that what we are doing to the planet has so many implications," Bonello said.
Inside the Fight to Force Makers of Plastic Trash to Clean Up Their Mess - The moment may be at hand for Californians to turn the tide on a sea of plastic waste that environmentalists say is destroying life in the ocean, contaminating drinking water and stuffing state landfills. Already qualified for the November ballot, the California Recycling and Plastic Pollution Reduction Act would force the petrochemical-based plastics industry to make all single-use plastic packaging and foodware items reusable, recyclable or compostable by 2030, while reducing production of them by 25%. Northern California recycling and waste management giant Recology Inc. put up $3.85 million to get the measure on the ballot. The Corn Refiners Association contributed $250,000 more. The Conservation Action Fund, supported by a half-million-dollar contribution from the Nature Conservancy, is bankrolling the ongoing campaign. And a who’s who of prominent environmental organizations in the state has lent lobbyists and message masters to lead the attack on plastic. The measure’s supporters describe a frightening scenario of a world overwhelmed by plastic waste — food cups, clamshell containers, straws, bottle-cap sealants and dozens of other single-use items. Plastic trash, the advocates say, now floods the oceans with some 14 billion tons of waste a year that ravages fish and other sea life. On land, plastic refuse breaks down into microscopic particles that are being found pretty much everywhere. “This isn’t just about marine life,” said Nick Lapis, a lobbyist for Californians Against Waste. “This is being ingested by humans, and we don’t know what the effects of that are. This year, research has come out that showed for the first time that there’s plastic in human blood and human lungs, and there was a study that tested the first bowel movement of newborns, and they had plastic in them. … Babies are literally being born with it in their bodies.”
First long-term evidence of microplastic pollution from deep water layers of the open ocean - For the first time, scientists from the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW) analyzed a long-term sample series on microplastic pollution in the Northeast Atlantic from 2000 m water depth with respect to number, size, mass, material and possible origin of the particles. Samples were collected between 2003–2015 in the Madeira Basin by a sediment trap. Plastic type and particle amount varied widely, but accounted for up to 8% of total particle flux. The most common plastic materials were polyethylene and PVC. Few anthropogenic environmental pollutants—both on land and in water—are as widespread as microplastics. And although there is evidence of microplastics in almost every ecosystem—even if it is as remote as the Arctic or deep-sea sediments—major knowledge gaps exist about their origin, fate and temporal variability. This is especially the case for the oceans. "Yet microplastics are dangerous to the marine environment in many ways," "Microplastics can adsorb certain toxins and transport them over long distances, both horizontally and vertically. A wide variety of organisms ingest such 'poisoned' particles, which, on top of that, can significantly limit the intake of nutritious food," the researcher says. "Moreover, not all microplastics are the same," adds co-author Joanna Waniek. "To reach a better understanding of how fast and how much microplastic sinks through the water column into the ocean depths, we need to study not only particle size, but also what material the particles are made of. There is an enormous range of chemical and physical properties that influence both, sinking behavior and particle life time. This, in turn, decisively influences the residence time in the water column and thus the availability to the affected fauna," In the present study, the two IOW researchers for the first time analyzed a time series of sediment trap material from 2000 m water depth, which was collected by Kiel 276 between 2003 and 2015. Microplastics were detected in every one of the 110 samples examined. Amount, plastic type and vertical transport rates varied considerably: between 1 and about 3000 plastic particles sink into the Atlantic deep sea per day and m², which corresponds to a mass of 0.0001 to almost 2 mg per day and m². "Extrapolated to the entire Atlantic, this equates to an input of about 5.4 million tons per year," says Janika Reineccius. "The maximum amount of microplastics can account for up to 8% of the total sinking material," adds Joanna Waniek. The two scientists found mainly very small particles, predominantly smaller than 0.1 mm. Using Raman spectroscopy, they detected the following types of plastic: polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polypropylene, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate (PET), Plexiglas, polyamide, Teflon and copolymers of polyethylene and polypropylene. Between sampling years, the composition of polymers changed considerably, but polyethylene always dominated (a good 70% of the amount from all samples) and PVC (about 20% of the total amount) was the second most common; all other polymers occurred only in extremely small amounts. The amount of polyethylene particles clearly correlated with the increased occurrence of tiny lithogenic particles.
US cruise ships using Canada as a ‘toilet bowl’ for polluted waste - From the comfort of cruise ships, a typical trip to Alaska offers magnificent views of glaciers and untamed national parks, and visits to quaint seaside towns. For years, these draws have made cruises to Alaska the most booked US holiday. But the journey to those pristine areas, which involves sailing along Canada’s west coast for two or three days, is leaving behind a trail of toxic waste, including within marine protected areas (MPAs), according to new research.More than 31bn litres (8.5bn US gallons) a year of pollution is estimated to be discharged off the west coast of Canada by cruise ships on their way to and from Alaska, according to a report by the environmental organisations Stand.earth and West Coast Environmental Law (WCEL).“There’s this perverse incentive to treat Canada like a toilet bowl,” says Anna Barford, Canada shipping campaigner at Stand.earth. “They’re just using us like a highway and tossing stuff left, right and centre.” Across Canada’s 151,019 mile (243,042km) coastline, ships generate 147bn litres of harmful waste each year, equivalent to 59,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools, according to a March 2022 report by WWF-Canada. Based on data from more than 5,000 vessels, the report found cruise ships were the largest polluters, despite making up only 2% of the marine traffic analysed.Cruise ship pollution includes large volumes of toxic sewage from toilets, greywater from sinks, showers and laundries, and bilge water – the oily liquid that collects at the lowest part of a ship. By far the largest source of pollution identified in the WWF report was from so-called scrubbers – devices installed to remove exhaust gases such as sulphur oxide and nitrogen oxide, as well as particulates, from the heavy bunker oil used as marine fuel. The scrubbers create an acidic wastewater containing a cocktail of chemicals.On a one-week trip to Alaska and back along the Canadian coast, a cruise ship will generate nearly 200m litres of waste from scrubbers, according to the Stand.earth and WCEL report. While ships can decide whether to discharge at sea or within a port, most waste from scrubbers is dumped as it is generated.Globally, cruise ships have a patchy record of maintaining environmental regulations, including within Alaska, but the Pacific waters off the coast of British Columbia are particularly polluted. This is due to the many cruise ships but also because Canada’s federal dumping regulations are less stringent than the US laws, according to Michael Bissonnette, a lawyer from WCEL, particularly compared with regulations in Washington and Alaska – the two US states at each end of Canada’s west coast.
AP PHOTOS: Extremely low levels at Lake Mead amid drought (AP) — An abandoned old power boat juts upright from the cracked mud like a giant tombstone. Its epitaph might read: Here lay the waters of Lake Mead. The largest U.S. reservoir has shrunken to a record low amid a punishing drought and the demands of 40 million people in seven states who are sucking the Colorado River dry. The megadrought in the U.S. West has been worsened by climate change. Wildfire season has become longer and blazes more intense, scorching temperatures have broken records and lakes are shriveling.Receding waters of Lake Mead National Recreation Area have revealed the skeletal remains of two people along with countless desiccated fish and what has become a graveyard of forgotten and stranded watercraft.Houseboats, sailboats and motorboats have been beached, creating a surreal scene in an otherwise rugged desert landscape. A buoy that once marked a no-boat-zone sits in the dirt, not a drop of water anywhere in view. Even a sunken World War II-era craft that once surveyed the lake has emerged from the ebbing waters. Nature did not create this still water paradise for fishing, camping and kayaking. The mighty Colorado River that divides Nevada from Arizona once flowed beneath the walls of Black Canyon until the Hoover Dam was erected in 1935 for irrigation, flood control and hydropower.The reservoir is now below 30 percent of capacity. Its level has dropped 170 feet (52 meters) since reaching a high-water mark in 1983, leaving a bright white line of mineral deposits on the brown canyon walls that looms over passing motor boats as high as a 15-story building.Most of the boat ramps have been gated and marina docks moved into deeper waters. A sign that marks the water level in 2002 inconceivably stands above a road that descends to boat slips in the distance.The dropping water levels have consequences not only for the cities that depend on the future source of water but for boaters who have to navigate shallow waters and avoid islands and sandbars that lurk below the surface before emerging.Craig Miller was motoring around on his houseboat last month when the engine died and he floated to shore. Within days, the knee deep water where his boat came to a rest was gone.“It's amazing how fast the water went down," Miller said. “I was landlocked.”He bought pumps and tried to dredge the sand around the boat to create a channel to the water, but couldn't stay ahead of the receding waters. A tow from shallow waters, originally estimated at $4,000, ballooned to a $20,000 salvage job when he became marooned.
Kansas town taps ranch water 70 miles away, ignites legal fight - There’s a practice in the High Plains when drought sets in and shallow wells run dry. It’s called “water mining,” and it involves tapping deep aquifers to keep kitchen faucets and farm irrigators running. Now two small west-central Kansas cities — Hays and Russell — are seeking a new way to go the extra mile for freshwater. Rather than “mine” aquifers, the cities want to embark on something more akin to “water grazing,” where non-local entities buy large tracts of farmland, halt crop and livestock production, and put the land to new work collecting and storing water. The practice, also called “buy-and-dry,” is not unique to Kansas. But the play by Hays and Russell has created a tempest in a state where many farmers already face gripping drought and where water rights are viewed as a precious commodity — even if users pay nothing for the actual water associated with those rights. Experts say the case is the first of its kind in Kansas, and it’s put a spotlight on Hays and Russell, which are about 30 miles apart and have a combined population of roughly 25,500 people. The state capital, Topeka, is a two- to three-hour drive east on Interstate 70. The roots of the current fight began more than 25 years ago. In 1995, after one of the worst droughts in its history, Hays purchased a nearly 7,000-acre ranch in rural Edwards County, about 75 miles south in the Arkansas River basin. It paid $4.3 million for the ranch, called R9, and made clear it was a hedge against future water shortages. The region had experienced water deficits before, including from 2010 to 2015 when drought gripped much of Kansas for 248 weeks, according to federal records. But the water ranching concept sits poorly with some farmers who draw billions of gallons of water annually for crops and livestock. Neighbors of the R9 ranch have watched the former working landscape revert to a natural prairie over three decades. Now some are mounting a campaign against what they view as an unlawful taking of agricultural water for municipal use. The dispute, which eventually could go before the Kansas Supreme Court, reflects a growing tension in climate-stressed farm states like Kansas that must balance the irrigation needs of farmers with the needs of city and suburb dwellers.
Rhine drought leaves Germany on brink of shipping closure - The Rhine is on the brink of being closed to shipping traffic as water levels plunge towards "extreme" lows in a major blow for the German economy.Water levels at the town of Kaub, a bottleneck point in one of Europe's most important transport arteries, have fallen beneath one metre as a heatwave grips the continent.Forecasts suggest levels could soon reach 80cm, which would trigger an extreme alert and mean many vessels can no longer pass through.The timing is particularly painful because of the energy crisis in Europe. Barges frequently use the Rhine to deliver fuel to factories and coal to German power plants. Major companies based on the Rhine include chemical giant BASF, which uses it for cooling and transportation at its Ludwigshafen plant south of Frankfurt, and steel behemoth Thyssenkrupp. The river runs for 766 miles, passing through Switzerland, France, Germany and the Netherlands. It is used by an estimated 6,900 vessels with a transport capacity of 10m tonnes. The country’s National Meteorological Service has warned the heatwave will be especially intense in the south-west, with experts predicting highs of more than 40C next week in central and south Germany. Warnings over the state of the Rhine came early this year, with water levels at Kaub previously falling below one metre in March following a dry winter – the first time they had done so since at least 2000, the earliest year for which data is available. The full effects of a heatwave now may not be fully felt until autumn. After the summer heatwave in 2018 – which killed thousands of Rhine fish in Switzerland – water levels in Kaub went on to drop as low as 25cm in October. That record low led chemicals producer Covestro to issue a profit warning amid soaring logistics costs, and forced BASF to close a facility. Officials in Berlin used its strategic oil reserves to try and cover the decline in shipments. Other rivers are also being affected by the high temperatures. The Po – Italy’s longest river – has dried up amid the most severe drought in 70 years.
All-time temperature records tumble in Europe, thousands evacuate as wildfires rage in France, Spain and Portugal - (video) Record-breaking temperatures have engulfed parts of Europe for the second time since mid-June. Before the end of the week, temperatures are expected to reach the high 40s (°C). As a result, France, Britain, Portugal and Spain are on high alert over wildfires and public health. The worst affected today were Spain and Portugal, where more than 20 wildfires were active. Portugal’s Civil Protection commander, André Fernandes, said that multiple fires have caused the evacuation of more than 600 people. About 120 people needed medical treatment, with two people — one civilian and one firefighter — suffering serious injuries.1 Police are investigating the death of a woman whose charred body was found in a corn field after a small rural fire near Porto, which initial reports suggest could have been an accident.2 Water-dumping planes helped 1 300 firefighters combat the worst of the blazes in the nation’s central area, while another 1 000 worked to bring other fires under control. Wildfires are also burning in France, where more than 800 firefighters battled two of them in southwest France, according to the regional emergency service. Together, they have destroyed more than 2 700 ha (6 670 acres) of land. The fires began Tuesday, July 12 near the towns of Landiras and La Teste-de-Buch, and firefighters hadn’t been able to contain them by Wednesday morning, AP reports. The biggest of the two fires is around the town of Landiras, south of Bordeaux, where roads have been closed and 500 residents evacuated.3 The other one is along the Atlantic Coast, close to the iconic “Dune du Pilat” – the tallest sand dune in Europe – located in the Arcachon Bay area, above which heavy clouds of dark smoke were seen rising in the sky. That fire led to the preventive evacuation of 6 000 people from five surrounding campsites. In Spain’s western region of Extremadura, firefighters evacuated a few hundred villagers overnight as a precaution and continued to battle a blaze that on Tuesday swept into Salamanca province in the region of Castile and Leon, burning more than 2 500 ha (6 180 acres) of land. The blaze began on Monday due to a lightning strike, and will probably last several days, the head of the regional government of Extremadura, Guillermo Fernandez Vara, said. Several wildfires have also swept across northern and central Italy as the country is experiencing the worst drought in 70 years.2 Near the northern city of Bolzano, firefighters were battling a blaze that broke out Tuesday afternoon and that has affected a large area of mixed forest and trees, according to emergency services. Another wildfire broke out in the early hours of Wednesday morning in the central region of Tuscany, where two helicopters and six teams of firefighters were involved. July 12 was an exceptionally hot day, especially for Galicia in NW Spain where the city of Ourense broke its all-time record of 42.6 °C (108.6 °F) when 43.2 °C (109.7 °F) was recorded. Remuino was even hotter with 43.7 °C (110.6 °F) registered by Meteo Galicia and Ribadavia with 43.5 °C (110.3 °F). The most notable all-time record on July 13 was 46.3 °C (115.3 °F) registered at Lousa, Portugal. Other important July records were broken in Torres Vedras where 43.3 °C (109.9 °F) was registered, 41.4 °C (106.5 °F) in Lisboa Tapada da Ajuda and 42.5 °C (108.5 °F) in Rio Maior, according to the professional climatologist Maximiliano Herrera. On July 14, the heat will spread through most of France and into southern Germany, Switzerland, Austria, and Hungary. By July 17, the worst-affected will be northern Portugal and Spain, western France and Britain. July 19 will bring extremely high temperatures to Ireland and the United Kingdom. A cold front is forecast to approach from the NE into Ireland and further into to SW Europe on July 24, bringing the end to the heatwave.
Villages battle wildfires in Portugal; Europe swelters (AP) — More than 3,000 firefighters battled Thursday alongside ordinary Portuguese citizens desperate to save their homes from several wildfires that raged across the European country, fanned by extreme temperatures and drought conditions linked to climate change. Central Portugal has been particularly hard hit by a spate of blazes this week. In the village of Bemposta, residents used garden hoses to spray their lawns and roofs in hopes they could save them from the raging wall of red flames that approached through the wooden hills late Wednesday. “It began spreading towards that way, the wind was blowing that way towards the mountain,” said 88-year-old Antonio Carmo Pereira, while pointing to the flames on the outskirts of his village. “In a few minutes I couldn’t see anything, just smoke." More than 800 firefighters were still fighting blazes in the Leiria district, where Bemposta is located, on Thursday. Temperatures in the interior of the Atlantic country were forecast to hit 44 C (111 F) as hot, dry air blown in from Africa lingers over the western edge of the Iberian Peninsula. In June, 96% of Portugal was classified as being in either in “extreme” or “severe” drought. The hot air and parched ground, combined with strong winds, has created the perfect cocktail for severe wildfires. Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa's government on Thursday extended a state of alert for wildfires until Sunday due to high temperatures. The week-long alert was originally to run until Friday. The Portuguese government has temporarily barred public access to forests deemed to be at special risk, banned the use of farm machinery and outlawed fireworks. Costa said firefighters had to respond to 200 different blazes Wednesday and pleaded for his fellow citizens to take extra care when in the countryside. About 10,000 hectares (25,000 acres) have been scorched this week in Portugal, according to the Civil Protection Agency. About 865 people had to evacuate their homes over the past week, although many had returned by Thursday. More than 30 homes and other buildings have been damaged. Civil Protection commander André Fernandes said 160 people, including at least 70 firefighters, have been injured so far, but there are no confirmed fatalities from the fires in Portugal. Four people, including two firefighters, were seriously injured. Portugal has improved its fire safety since wildfires killed more than 100 people in 2017.
Fires ravage French forests near Atlantic as Europe heats up (AP) — Challenged by high temperatures and strong winds, 1,000 firefighters and 10 water-dumping planes struggled Friday to contain two wildfires in the Bordeaux region of southwestern France that have forced the evacuation of 11,300 people and ravaged pine forests near the Atlantic coast.The French wildfires were among several scorching different areas of Europe this week.One of the French fires is in woodlands just south of the Atlantic resort town of Arcachon, a major attraction for visitors during the summer season. The other is in parkland not far from valleys dotted with vineyards that have struggled with hotter, drier weather than usual this year thatauthorities have linked to climate change.More than 7,000 hectares of land have been consumed by the fires, according to the regional emergency service. As the fires stretched into a fourth day Friday, one was partially contained, it said, but warned that hotter temperatures and winds over the weekend could further complicate firefighting efforts.“We are living through an exceptionally harsh (summer) season,” French President Emmanuel Macron said Friday during a visit to the government crisis management center at the Interior Ministry in Paris. The number of French forests burnt in fires this year is already triple those destroyed in 2020, Macron said.Some of the firefighting planes and equipment that were supposed to be displayed in Thursday’s Bastille Day parade in Paris were diverted for use on the Bordeaux region fires. Wildfires also broke out in southeast France and north of Paris.Portugal has been particularly hard hit by wildfires this week. More than 3,000 firefighters battled alongside ordinary Portuguese citizens desperate to save their homes from several wildfires that raged across the country, fanned by extreme temperatures and drought conditions. The country’s Civil Protection Agency said 10 fires were still raging Friday, with ones in the north causing the most concern.Portuguese state television RTP reported Friday that the area burned this year has already exceeded the total for 2021. More than 30,000 hectares (74,000 acres) of land has been burned, it said, most in the past week.Meanwhile, Portuguese authorities said a July national high of 47 degrees Celsius (117 Fahrenheit) was registered in the northern town of Pinhao on Wednesday, the hottest day of the year so far.Spain, Croatia and Hungary have also fought wildfires this week. For a fifth day, firefighters in Spain were battling Friday to try to bring under control a fire started by a lightning strike in the west-central Las Hurdes area that has consumed about 5,500 hectares (13,600 acres).Some 400 people from eight villages were evacuated late Thursday as the flames approached their houses and threatened to spread into the nearby Monfrague National Park. The government said Friday that 17 fires across Spain kept firefighters busy. In northeastern Catalonia, authorities restricted access to several mountain areas to avoid possible fires. In the Spanish city of Seville, one of the hottest spots in Europe this week, some unions called for workers to be sent home. Temperatures in many parts of Spain have been topping the 40 C (104 F) mark for several days and are expected to keep doing so through next week.Britain’s Met Office weather agency warned Friday that record temperatures expected next week pose a risk of “serious illness or danger to life.”The office issued its first-ever “red warning” of extreme heat for Monday and Tuesday, when temperatures in southern England are forecast to reach 37 Celsius (98.6 Fahrenheit). There is a chance that temperatures could breach the highest-ever recorded in the U.K. — 38.7C (101.7F), which was set in 2019.
Heatwave: National emergency declared after UK's first red extreme heat warning - BBC News -- A national emergency has been declared after a red extreme heat warning was issued for the first time, as temperatures could hit 40C (104F). The Met Office's highest warning, meaning there is a risk to life, covers an area including London, Manchester and York on Monday and Tuesday. The UK Health Security Agency has also issued its highest level four heat alert to health and care bodies. It warned illness and death could occur "among the fit and healthy". Downing Street said the alert was being treated as a national emergency, with officials continuing to meet on Friday and over the weekend to discuss the response. It is the first time a red heat warning has been issued for parts of the UK, although the extreme heat warning system was only introduced in 2021. The Met Office red warning means:
- Population-wide adverse health effects, not limited to those most vulnerable to extreme heat, leading to serious illness or danger to life
- Substantial changes in working practices and daily routines will be needed
- A high risk of failure of heat-sensitive equipment, potentially leading to localised loss of power and other essential services
- More people visiting coastal areas, lakes and rivers, with increased safety risks
- Delays, closures and cancellations for road, rail and air travel
As well as the red warning an amber warning will be in place across most of England on Sunday and all of England, Wales and the south of Scotland on Monday and Tuesday.
Powerful winter storm strands more than 400 people near the Argentina-Chile border - A powerful winter storm stranded more than 300 vehicles in the Andes mountains near the Argentina-Chile border on July 9, 2022. The Los Libertadores border crossing was later shut down by authorities. The total number of stranded people, including tourists and truckers, exceeded 400 over the weekend, local officials said. 120 people were rescued early in the day on the Argentinian side of the border, but another 200 remained stranded at an altitude of more than 3 000 m (9 842 feet) due to the hostile weather.1 More than 200 people are also still stranded on the Chilean side, police officer Hector Castro told Chilean media. The temperatures in the region are dropping to -10 °C (14 °F) as the polar cold blast continues affecting the region.
Washburn Fire Threatens Sequoias in Yosemite National Park - - A wildfire in Yosemite National Park that has spread over 2,000 acres is threatening a grove of hundreds of giant sequoia trees, including some that are centuries old.The fire, fueled by timber and brush, is active in the Mariposa Grove, the largest and most popular of the - park’s three giant sequoia clusters. The grove is home to some of the longest-living and tallest trees in the world, including a tree named the Grizzly Giant that is more than 200 feet tall.Nancy Phillipe, a Yosemite fire information spokeswoman, said the fire was zero percent contained and that there was not yet any estimate of damage to the sequoia trees.On Sunday, thick columns of smoke lingered in the park and beyond it. With smoke from the fire expected to drift west on Monday, the Bay Area, 200 miles to the west, was under an air quality advisory .Mandatory evacuation orders for the grove and Wawona, a small community within the park, remained in place. Communication infrastructure and numerous residences were still threatened, the National Interagency Fire Center reported.Yuli Gotsev, a marketing manager for The Redwoods in Yosemite, which manages about 120 vacation rentals in the park, said that the company had evacuated dozens of guests and staff members from Wawona on Friday afternoon after receiving evacuation orders from the authorities.Although the winds were pushing the fire away from the community, he said he saw smoke rising in the distance. “It’s not our first wildfire,” he added. “We have some kind of a reflex that we developed over the years.”The firefighting effort has involved nearly a dozen helicopters and more than 360 firefighters.The cause of the fire is under investigation. Wildfires are growing in size and severity in the western United States. Experts say that climate change is elevating the risks of wildfires.Wawona Road is closed from the park’s south entrance to Henness Ridge Road, and Mariposa Grove is closed until further notice. All other areas of the park remain open, the Park Service said.Multiple heat warnings and advisories were issued on Sunday for alarge portion of Northern California. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District warned residents to stay inside with the windows and doors closed if they to smell smoke.Fire activity is expected to continue over the next few days, when temperatures in the area could reach triple digits.
Yosemite using aerial tankers, chemicals against wildfire. Why that’s ‘a big deal’ for park - Tinder-dry conditions in Yosemite National Park have prompted firefighters battling the Washburn Fire to call in both air tanker planes to drop fire-retardant chemicals on the wildfire and bulldozers to help create containment lines.Both the tankers and the ’dozers are considered unusual for firefighting efforts in a national park, where the vast majority of the acreage is designated as wilderness, said Nancy Phillipe, a fire information spokeswoman for Yosemite National Park.“Obviously this is a full-suppression fire for us,” Phillipe told The Fresno Bee on Sunday. “For us, using retardant (chemicals) is a huge deal because this is wilderness.” National wilderness laws contain strict rules for when such chemicals can be used, she added, and the same is true for the bulldozers.But both measures were deemed necessary to protect not only the iconic Mariposa Grove of giant sequoia trees that is threatened by the fire, but also the residential enclave of Wawona, inside the park boundaries, where a mandatory evacuation order has been in effect since Friday.The Wawona community is about three miles from Washburn Fire, which grew in size from about 1,100 acres on Saturday evening to almost 1,600 acres by Sunday morning – an increase of almost 50% overnight. Containment of the fire remained at 0% on Sunday morning. Between the air tankers and almost a dozen helicopters dropping water on the fire, “it’s been quite an aerial show over Wawona,” Phillipe said.By Saturday night, about 360 firefighters were working to contain the fire, an increase of about 150 from Friday. Those include hand crews building containment lines around the fire, along with engine crews. That number was expected to keep increasing Sunday as more teams from local, state and federal agencies arrive in the park, Phillipe said. Dead conifer trees, both standing and down, as well as dry brush on the forest floor after years of drought in the Sierra Nevada are contributing to the fire’s spread.
California heat builds as crews protect Yosemite sequoias --A heat wave was developing in California on Monday but winds were light as firefighters battled a wildfire that poses a threat to a grove of giant sequoias and a small community in Yosemite National Park. The Washburn Fire on the western flank of the Sierra Nevada had scorched about 3.6 square miles by Monday morning, an increase of about 300 acres (121 hectares) overnight, according to an incident update. The fire was a threat to more than 500 mature sequoias in the park's Mariposa Grove and the nearby community of Wawona, which has been evacuated. The area in the southern portion of Yosemite was closed to visitors but the rest of the national park remained open. Mariposa Grove and Yosemite Valley have been protected since President Abraham Lincoln signed legislation in 1864. A sprinkler system was set up within the grove to maintain moisture, and there were no reports of severe damage to any named trees, including the 3,000-year-old Grizzly Giant. "Fortunately, the Mariposa Grove has a long history of prescribed burning and studies have shown that these efforts reduce the impacts of high-severity unwanted fire," a National Park Service statement said. A heat advisory was issued for the Central Valley sprawling below the Sierra while up in the fire area a high of 88 degrees (31 Celsius) was forecast for Wawona. The giant sequoias, native in only about 70 groves spread along the western slope of the Sierra Nevada, were once considered impervious to flames but have become increasingly vulnerable as wildfires, fueled by a buildup of undergrowth from a century of fire suppression and the impact of drought exacerbated by climate change, have become more intense and destructive. Lightning-sparked wildfires over the past two years have killed up to a fifth of the estimated 75,000 large sequoias, which are the biggest trees by volume and a major draw for tourists.
Washburn Fire in Yosemite caused tree branches to fly and hit airplanes - A rare and dangerous updraft at the Washburn Fire in Yosemite National Park caused tree branches and other debris to be sucked high enough into the sky to rain down on tanker airplanes battling the blaze. Britt Coulson, of the contractor Coulson Aviation in British Columbia, told The Chronicle on Monday that twice over the weekend, pilots reported stuff falling from the sky as they flew over to drop water on the blaze. In the first instance, on Friday, an object actually hit the fuselage of a tanker. In the second, Saturday, a big branch flew over the top of the King Air lead plane and came down between it and the tanker that was following.“Nothing hit any of our airplanes (on Saturday),” Coulson said, “but there was debris reported to be up there.”Jay Nichols, public information officer with California Incident Management Team 13, which is overseeing the Washburn Fire response, told The Chronicle on Sunday that he was unaware of any incidents of flying debris affecting the air assault. “My aviation guys would have told me about it pretty quick,” he said.But radio chatter, probably involving the Coulson planes, seemed to confirm it.“Hey, just want to let you know a branch went right over the top of us, pretty good size, probably 50 feet above us coming down and fell right in between Tanker 103 and myself,” said one of the pilots in a communication posted to Twitter. After a response from dispatch, the pilot added, “So if we keep seeing that we might have to knock it off. I don’t want to take a chance on busting a window in an airplane or hurting an aircraft for this.”Daniel Swain, a climate scientist and California weather expert affiliated with UCLA, tweeted over the weekend that he had confirmed with an eyewitness from a plane that “Large debris from sequoia trees,” including one or more branches longer than 2 feet, were lifted hundreds of vertical feet by the power of the Washburn Fire.Coulson said debris damaging a fire fighting aircraft would be unusual, but “a number of years ago one of our pilots was flying a P2 and has a big piece of log hit the front window and broke it,” he said in an email. “There is a lot of stuff the convective air around a fire can bring up.”Convection in the case of a fire is caused when rising hot air is replaced by cooler air rushing in at ground level. The force can be so great that it can carry ground debris up into the sky in a reverse tornado.
Yosemite Park fire: Hot, dry conditions are making it harder for firefighters trying to protect the giant sequoias - Hot, dry weather conditions are making it harder for firefighting crews battling a wildfire in Yosemite National Park in California that is threatening a grove of giant sequoia trees, most of which are more than 2,000 years old. The Washburn Fire has ballooned to at least 4,261 acres since it was reported last week, with containment at about 23%, according to an update Wednesday from Inciweb, an national wildfire information clearinghouse. More than 1,000 fire crew personnel are fighting the blaze, which has been spreading close to the giant sequoias as well as a small community that was forced to evacuate last week. "The more than 500 mature sequoias of the Mariposa Grove are adjacent to these fuels and have so far avoided serious damage from the Washburn Fire," fire officials wrote in the update. "Most of these trees are over 2000-years-old and have experienced fire many times throughout their lives." On Thursday, temperatures are expected to remain warm and dry with light to moderate winds, creating conditions that could potentially fuel the flames even more. Temperatures will be in the 90s, with relative humidity in the 20-30% range, CNN meteorologist Robert Shackelford said. "A persistent weather pattern for the next several days will support active-to-very active fire behavior in heavy dead and down fuels," fire officials wrote. "Continued warming and drying over the next several days will bring additional fire growth and smoke production where control lines have yet to be constructed." The Washburn Fire made significant push to the east Wednesday. To protect the 209-foot-tall Grizzly Giant sequoia, fire crews installed a sprinkler system to dampen the ground around it with water from a small pool feeding sprinklers set up near the tree's base, footage from Yosemite Fire and Aviation Management shows. The cause of the fire has not been determined yet, but park superintendent Cicely Muldoon said earlier this week, "There was no lightning on that day, so it's a human-start fire and it's under investigation." Wildfires have been scorching western US land in recent years, and the flames have become more common due to worsening drought conditions fueled by climate change. In California alone, more than 2.5 million acres were destroyed in nearly 9,000 fires last year, according to Cal Fire.
Yosemite wildfire continues to grow as it pushes east into Sierra national forest - The wildfire sweeping through Yosemite national park swelled to more than 4,375 acres (1,770 hectares) by Thursday morning, and is now pushing east into the Sierra national forest. Raging across steep and rugged terrain, firefighters have faced challenges battling the blaze, which has exhibited extreme fire behavior, officials said. Warm and dry conditions as well as dried out vegetation have upped the intensity, spurring flames that, in some areas, stretched high into the canopies of the tall trees and produced large plumes of smoke that billowed into the sky. Winds have, however, remained light in the area where the so-called Washburn fire continues to burn. Temperatures lingered just below 100F (38C) on Thursday and relative humidity remained in double digits, aiding firefighters as they achieved roughly 23% containment on the fire. But the blaze continues to grow, and officials said it will probably smolder through the rest of the year, until rains and snows terminate the risk completely. “It is moving away from populated areas as it moves east, moving into the Sierra national forest,” said Stanley Bercovitz, a public information officer with the interagency team managing the fire response, adding that forest closures have been issued as a result. The blaze erupted near the park’s famed Mariposa Grove, licking the beloved cluster of giant sequoias and sparking concerns for the ancient trees that have grown more vulnerable in the face of high-intensity flames in recent years. But so far, the grove has remained safe, in part due to prescribed burns and forest thinning treatments done in recent years to stave off the threats from high-intensity fire. “We’ve been preparing for the Washburn fire for decades,” said Garrett Dickman, a Yosemite forest ecologist, adding that the small, targeted fires lit over the past 50 years essentially stopped the fire in its tracks when it hit the Mariposa Grove and allowed firefighters to stand their ground and set up sprinklers to further protect the world’s largest trees. “It really just died as soon as it hit the grove.” The sequoias are adapted to fire and rely on it to survive. But more than a century of aggressive fire suppression has left forests choked with dense vegetation and downed timber that has provided fuel for large wildfires that have grown more intense during acontinuing drought and exacerbated by the climate crisis.
Washburn Fire: Parts of Yosemite National Park, Sierra National Forest shut down as wildfire burns more than 4,375 acres - ABC30 Fresno -- Crews are battling a wildfire that has shut down part of Yosemite National Park and the Sierra National Forest, caused road closures, and prompted evacuations.The Washburn Fire started spreading near the Mariposa Grove of Giant Sequoias and has burned 4,375 acres with 27% containment as of Thursday evening. It has now crossed over into the Sierra National Forest, prompting more road closures. That includes Forest Routes 5S43, 5S06 (Mt. Raymond Rd.), 5S22 and 5S37.The Washburn Fire started spreading near the Mariposa Grove of Giant Sequoias and has burned 4,261 acres with 23% containment as of Wednesday night.The forest service says the closures will help firefighters get resources to and from the fire and also keep the public safe. The cause of the fire is still under investigation, but during a community meeting on Monday night, Yosemite's park superintendent said it appears to have been started by humans. Concerns are growing as are the resources being dedicated to fight the fire on the ground and from the air. More than 1,000 firefighting personnel are currently working, having been called in from across California.Some of those crews are dedicated to helping protect the towering Giant Sequoia trees.A sprinkler system set up within the grove is keeping their trunks moist and officials say that the steady spray of water along with previous prescribed burns has kept the flames at bay so far. Newly released infrared mapping, which shows the heat generated by the fire, shows it spreading north and east, towards the wilderness areas of the park.
Common approach to keeping wildfire smoke out of US homes doesn't work, study finds - When drifting wildfire smoke brings hazardous air pollution to cities and towns across the country, public health officials urge residents to stay indoors, close windows, and use air filters. New research from Stanford University shows Americans are getting the message, yet still rarely succeed at keeping smoke from entering their homes.Researchers led by Marshall Burke, an associate professor of Earth system science, analyzed data from consumer-grade air pollution sensors in 1,520 single-family homes across the U.S., as well as nearby outdoor air pollution monitors, cell phones, social media posts, and Google searches in English and Spanish between 2016 and 2020.They found internet searches for air quality information increased on heavy smoke days, regardless of income, while searches for air filters, smoke masks, and other protective measures recommended by health officials rose only in wealthy neighborhoods. Residents of wealthier neighborhoods are also more likely to shelter at home when wildfire smoke pollutes outside air. "People seem to know they're being exposed. We see a lot of behaviors change even at pretty low levels of smoke exposure, although those responses differ by socioeconomic status," said Burke.The results, published July 7 in Nature Human Behaviour, show that better education and information about health hazards from wildfire smoke are not enough to protect people from the health harms of wildfire smoke exposure. The findings also bolster evidence for nascent efforts to take a more proactive and systematic approach to mitigating public health risks from wildfire smoke, predicted to be one of the most widely felt health impacts of climate change nationwide.While most current government policies rely on a do-it-yourself approach to avoiding unhealthy air from wildfires, this tactic will have "modest and unequal benefits," the authors write. Short-term solutions include establishing clean air shelters and providing public subsidies for lower-income households to filter indoor air. "If people can't maintain good air quality in their homes, they need a place to go where they can breathe clean air," said Burke, who is also deputy director of Stanford's Center on Food Security and the Environment. "That's a great place to start."
Uncontrolled Burning: The Role of Oil and Gas in New Mexico’s Historic Wildfires - On June 21, U.S. Forest Service Chief Randy Moore somewhat surprisingly laid the blame for the largest wildfire in New Mexico history squarely at the feet of his own agency: Using outdated information and practices, his employees started a prescribed burn that raced out of control. His admission came in the introduction to an 85-page Forest Service report on the timeline of events leading to the Hermits Peak fire, a long-planned prescribed burn that later merged with the Calf Canyon wildfire — also lit by the Forest Service — to form the record-breaking blaze. “People are looking for someone to blame for the devastation,” says Liliana Castillo, deputy director of Climate Advocates Voces Unidas (CAVU), a Santa Fe-based environmental group. “That is completely understandable.” But a key cause of the blaze isn’t directly addressed in the report. In the introduction, Moore writes that in the century-plus that the agency has fought fires, a runaway prescribed burn “was nearly unheard of until recently,” because “climate change is leading to conditions on the ground that we have never encountered.” But where does that climate change come from? “It’s driven by human beings exuding carbon to the atmosphere,” says Lucas Herndon, energy and policy director of Progress Now New Mexico. “And, unfortunately, in the state of New Mexico, the biggest contributor to that is the oil and gas industry.” As a state that’s the second biggest oil producer and sixth biggest natural gas producer in the country, New Mexico has an outsized effect on the climate. Nationally, transportation accounts for the largest source of climate change causing greenhouse gas emissions at 27%. In New Mexico, 53% of these emissions come not from oil and gas consumption but from its production — from wells, pipelines and processing stations. If New Mexico is to truly address this increasing fire risk, it will have to do more than castigate the Forest Service. The state has to address its own, significant contributions to the conditions rendering Forest Service policies — and life in parts of the state — obsolete.
Pebble Project camp destroyed in wildfire - A supply camp for the proposed Pebble Mine was destroyed in a wildfire over the Fourth of July weekend, according to a Pebble Project spokesperson. The camp, situated approximately 17 miles northwest of the communities of Newhalen and Iliamna, according to Pebble Project spokesperson Mike Heatwole, is considered a near-total loss, with just a handful of metal drill casings surviving the blaze. Heatwole said no hazardous material was burned in the incident. The area described by Heatwole is nearest the Upper Talarik Fire, which is considered part of the Lime Complex wildfires that have burned since early June. The Upper Talarik Fire was last reported Wednesday to be 9,133 acres in size and is unstaffed by firefighting crews. Pebble Limited Partnership has long sought to begin work in developing the controversial Pebble Mine. Heatwole said the supply camp was essentially being used as a supply staging area for potential exploration, maintenance and study site for environmental impacts. Heatwole added that the site does not house field staff, which are housed in Iliamna and Newhalen. He said that the Pebble Project was informed of the blaze by the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center and is working to clean up the site, but ongoing wildfire activity in Southwest Alaska has hindered efforts to get a crew out there. “Summer is an intensive season for helicopters,” Heatwole said. “Our current plan is to secure a helicopter later this summer and undertake a clean-up of the site. We will also assess at that time if additional work is required.”
More than 40 people unaccounted for after severe storms and floods hit Virginia, U.S. – (video) Severe storms hit parts of Virginia on July 12, 2022, causing major flooding in Buchanan County where more than 100 homes were damaged and 44 people were unaccounted for, as of July 14. Officials said the number of unaccounted people reflects those that have been reported to law enforcement by loved ones and family members as being unable to make contact with them. “We have 44 individuals unaccounted for at this time due to the flooding event that has occurred in the Whitewood area of Buchanan County,” the Buchanan County Sheriff’s Office said. “This number reflects the number of people that have been reported to law enforcement by loved ones and family members as being unable to make contact with them. “This does not mean the person is missing, it means we are attempting to reach and locate the person and check on their wellbeing. At this time we have no confirmed fatalities.” The flooding was concentrated in the Dismal River Road area of the county. Other areas affected included Patterson, Hale Creek, Pilgrim’s Knob, Whitewood and Jewell Valley. “A lot of roadways are blocked by landslides,” Virginia Department of Emergency Management’s Bill Chrimes said. “Bridges are washed out. It’s going to take time to get that access restored, make contact with everyone and make sure their basic needs are taken care of.”
Dozens missing, 15 000 rescued after severe flash floods hit pilgrimage site in Jammu and Kashmir, India – Some 15 000 people have been airlifted to safety after severe flash floods swept through makeshift camps during an annual Hindu pilgrimage to an icy Himalayan cave in Jammu and Kashmir, India. The cave is located at an altitude of 4.1 km (2.5 miles) and is covered with snow most of the year except for the short summer period when it is open to pilgrims. According to officials, a cloudburst hit the Amarnath Cave Temple near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, about 141 km (87 miles) from Srinagar, at around 17:30 LT on Friday, July 8, 2022, producing destructive flash floods. Survivors said water mixed with mud, sand and rocks suddenly gushed through the camp, sweeping away men, women and their belonging. “Everything was buried under a mountain of mud and rocks,” one of them said.1 Early Saturday morning, officials confirmed at least 16 people have been killed, 65 were injured and at least 40 were still missing. About 15 000 people have been airlifted to safety. The pilgrimage began on June 30 and tens of thousands of devotees have already visited the cave where Hindus worship a naturally formed ice stalagmite as an incarnation of Shiva, the god of destruction and regeneration. Hundreds of pilgrims have died in the past due to exhaustion and exposure to harsh weather during a 3-day journey through the icy mountains.
High-tide floods surge as climate changes and sea level rises -Over recent decades, coastal cities in the U.S. have experienced significant increases in floods that occur during high tide, which create dangerous driving conditions, road closures, groundwater contamination and other safety issues. Climate change and sea level rise have facilitated more of these high-tide floods, according to new research in AGU's Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. Multiple processes contribute to high-tide flooding, also called "nuisance flooding" or "sunny-day flooding," depending on tides and local wind and pressure conditions, as well as larger-scale phenomena like El Niño/La Niña. But little is known about how these factors work in concert to cause regional high-tide flooding. Their analyses also revealed that as sea level has risen, the number of co-occurring factors needed to cause a high-tide flood has dropped from three or four to two, or even one. Simply put, in many coastal cities, fewer things need to go wrong for a high-tide flood to hit. "When I started my career 15 years ago, I don't think we had a name for what now we know as high-tide flooding," says Thomas Wahl, a coastal engineer at the University of Central Florida and coauthor of the new study. "It is an emerging issue and one of the immediate consequences of rising sea levels." The new study looks beyond tides to see what drives these floods, which are now twice as likely to occur countrywide than they were in 2000. Wahl and his colleagues analyzed hourly tide data from gauges at 120 locations around the U.S., spanning more than 20 years, to see which processes were affecting sea level at different places. They also explored seasonal differences in high-tide floods and which processes compounded to create more severe flood events. The researchers found clear regional differences in what causes high-tide floods around the country. "Along the west coast, where sea level has risen less since the 1950s compared to other parts of the country, tides play an important role in generating high-tide flood events," Wahl says. "Along the Gulf coast, the seasonal variations in sea level are relatively more important compared to the other regions." Further up the East Coast, wind- and atmospheric pressure were often one of the ingredients to cause high-tide floods. Identifying these differences is essential to accurately predicting how flood regimes will change in coastal cities. Wahl was not surprised by these results but notes how important it is to quantify what has long been expected. The database he and his coauthors have built can help improve existing tools that show city planners how many floods they have to expect in the future under different sea level rise scenarios and make decisions on where and when to adapt.
Rate of Arctic warming faster than previously thought - For years scientists have known the Arctic is among the most rapidly warming regions of the planet, with temperatures rising significantly faster than the global average. Now they say it may be heating up even faster than previous research suggested. Several recent studies indicate the Arctic is now warming around four times as fast as the rest of the globe. It’s a substantial update: Until recently, scientific papers and news reports alike have typically stated the Arctic is warming at two to three times the global average. The updated figure doesn’t mean that previous reports were wrong. The warming rate can differ depending on the exact geographic area and the time period used in the analysis. Studies looking further back in time, for instance, may suggest a slower rate of warming. But studies looking at shorter, more recent time periods may find faster rates of warming as the influence of climate change has intensified. A new study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, is one of the latest to weigh in. Prior to the start of the 21st century, the study suggests, the Arctic was indeed warming two to three times as fast as the rest of the planet. But the warming rate has increased over the last 50 years, and it’s reached four times the global average in recent decades. What’s more, the study finds, Arctic warming hasn’t always increased smoothly over time. It’s jumped sharply a couple times over the last few decades — once around 1986 and again around 1999. There’s probably no single cause for these jumps, the researchers say. It’s likely a combination of different climate-related feedback processes. The research suggests that the earlier jump is likely driven primarily by human-caused climate change. The second jump may have been driven more so by natural fluctuations. Still, that jump comes on top of the steady background warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
Arctic temperatures are increasing four times faster than global warming -- A new analysis of observed temperatures shows the Arctic is heating up more than four times faster than the rate of global warming. The trend has stepped upward steeply twice in the last 50 years, a finding missed by all but four of 39 climate models. "Thirty years is considered the minimum to represent climate change," said Petr Chylek, a physicist and climate researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory and lead author of the study in Geophysical Research Letters. "We decreased the time interval to 21 years. At that smaller time scale, and contrary to previous investigations that found the Arctic amplification index increases in a smooth way, we observed two distinct steps, one in 1986 and a second one in 1999." Because the decade-by-decade episodic trend identified by Chylek and his collaborators affects global weather and sea levels, accurately projecting future climate change in smaller timeframes is essential for planning any mitigation of its impacts and developing adaptation strategies. The Arctic influences the world's climate and weather, and the melting of the Greenland ice sheet causes sea-level rise that threatens many coastal communities. The amplification index in the study is the ratio of an Arctic 21-year temperature trend versus an overall global 21-year temperature trend. The study calculated the Arctic amplification index to be greater than 4 within the early decades of the 21st century, four times faster than the global mean and considerably more rapid than previous published research had determined using 30- to 40-year time intervals. These earlier studies pegged the index between 2 and 3. From 39 climate-change models in the widely used CMIP6 collection of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, the international research team found four that reproduced the first step reasonably well around 1986, but none that reproduced the second step in 1999. CMIP is an international collaborative of climate models using a shared set of parameters. CMIP6 has been used to create recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. "We attributed the first step to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other pollutants in the atmosphere, because several models do it correctly," Chylek said, "but the second step we think is due to climate variability because none of the models can reproduce the second step." Short-term climate variability is typically undetected by climate models with their 30-year-plus-long timescales. The study does not pinpoint a cause for these relatively sudden increases, but the authors speculate that contributing causes are probably sea ice and water vapor feedbacks combined with changes in how atmospheric and oceanic heat move into the Arctic. Future increases in the Arctic amplification index are likely to be smaller as the temperature difference between the Arctic and the tropics decreases.
We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet advanced and retreated over 10,000 years. It holds warnings for the future - Alarming stories from Antarctica are now more frequent than ever; the ice surface is melting, floating ice shelves are collapsing and glaciers are flowing faster into the ocean. Antarctica will be the largest source of future sea-level rise. Yet scientists don't know exactly how this melting will unfold as the climate warms. Our latest research, published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, looks at how the Antarctic ice sheet advanced and retreated over the past 10,000 years. It holds stark warnings, and possibly some hope, for the future. Future sea-level rise presents one of the most significant challenges of climate change, with economic, environmental and societal impacts expected for coastal communities around the globe. While it seems like a distant issue, the changes in Antarctica may soon be felt on our doorsteps, in the form of rising sea levels. Antarctica is home to the world's largest single mass of ice: the Antarctic ice sheet. This body of glacier ice is several kilometers thick, nestled on top of solid land. It covers entire mountain ranges beneath it. The ice sheet "flows" over the land from the Antarctic interior and towards the surrounding ocean. As a whole it remains a solid mass, but its shape slowly deforms as the ice crystals move around. While the ice sheet flows outward, snowfall from above replenishes it. This cycle is supposed to keep the system in balance, wherein balance is achieved when the ice sheet is gaining the same amount of ice as it's losing to the ocean each year. However, satellites keeping watch from above show the ice sheet is currently not in balance. Over the past 40 years, it has lost more ice than it has gained. The result has been global rising sea levels. But these historical observations span only four decades, limiting our understanding of how the ice sheet responds to climate change over much longer periods. Most striking was a period of ice loss that took place in all regions of Antarctica about 10,000 to 5,000 years ago. It resulted in many meters of sea-level rise globally. In some regions of Antarctica, however, this ice loss was then followed by ice gain during the past 5,000 years—and a corresponding global sea-level fall—as the ice sheet margin advanced to where it is today. We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet advanced and retreated over 10,000 years. The period of ice loss from 10,000 to 5,000 years ago was rapid, occurring at a similar rate to the most dramatically changing parts of the Antarctic ice sheet today. We think it was likely the result of warm ocean water melting the underside of floating ice shelves—something that has also happened in recent decades. These ice shelves hold back the ice on land, so once they're removed the ice on the land flows faster into the ocean. In the future, it's predicted ice loss will accelerate as the ice sheet retreats into basins below sea level. This may already be under way in some regions of Antarctica. And based on what happened in the past, the resulting ice loss could persist for centuries.
Tropical storms trigger Antarctic ice melt - New factors have been identified which contribute to record-high temperatures and ice melt over the eastern Antarctic Peninsula and Larsen C Ice Shelf. The study, published today (13 July) in the journal Nature Communications, describes how distinct patterns of air circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean can lead to the formation of intense atmospheric rivers. These long stretches of warm, moist air result in extreme high temperature events and ice melt when they move over the Antarctic Peninsula. A team, including British Antarctic Survey researchers, used advanced modeling techniques to determine that these anomalous air circulation patterns are caused by thunderstorms and weather patterns resulting from hot air rising in the atmosphere in the central tropical Pacific east of Fiji. Variability in activity over this region was found to explain 40% of the year-to-year variability in melt over the summer period on the Larsen C ice self. It was also likely to be the cause of the two recent record-high Antarctic temperature events in March 2015 and February 2020, both of which led to record-high surface melting on the Larsen ice shelf. These results suggest the future stability of the Larsen C ice shelf, and the associated contribution of the Antarctic Peninsula to global sea level rise, is closely tied to future variability in central tropical Pacific weather patterns. "In our study, we show for the first time that a pattern, which results from the convection near Fiji, leads to a large and deep area of low pressure off the coast of West Antarctica and a strong high-pressure system north of the peninsula over Drake Passage. Together, these features transport very warm and moist air from middle and sub-tropical latitudes of the eastern South Pacific to the Antarctic Peninsula in the form of intense atmospheric rivers. This is another mechanism which may help us predict what might happen with the Larsen C ice shelf." The Larsen Ice Shelf, on the eastern peninsula, has experienced a dramatic series of collapses since the mid-1990s, including the most northern section Larsen A in 1995, and the larger Larsen B section to its south in 2002. Farther south, the largest remaining section, the Larsen C ice shelf, is now thinning. Larsen C is Antarctica's fourth largest remaining ice shelf. In 2017, the giant A-68a iceberg broke away from Larsen C releasing an estimated 152 billion tons of fresh water into the ocean when it melted.
US emissions cost the world $1.9 trillion in economic damages -The United States has caused more damage to global economies than any other nation by burning fossil fuels, causing $1.9 trillion in lost gross domestic product between 1990 and 2014, according to a new study released Tuesday by Dartmouth College. Environmental advocates have warned for years that greenhouse gas emissions from wealthy nations are triggering devastating climate impacts like droughts, heat waves, floods, and hurricanes, leading to income losses in poorer countries. But the Dartmouth researchers put a number to that assertion, finding that the five largest emitters – the U.S., China, Russia, India, and Brazil – collectively caused $6 trillion in losses worldwide, or about 14 percent of annual global GDP, over the study’s quarter-century period. The greatest damage has come from the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest emitters of greenhouse gases. Together, the two countries have caused $3.74 trillion in income losses, nearly a third of the total damage calculated. Russia, India, and Brazil each caused more than $500 billion in losses. While the European Union is normally counted as one bloc when adding up emissions, this study considered each country separately, placing nations like Germany further down the list. The study waspublished in the journal Climatic Change.Overall, the greatest losses have come from countries located in the Southern Hemisphere. Nations like low-lying Bangladesh, where floods accelerated by global warming have “severely affected” more than 7.2 million people so far this summer, have contributed the least to climate change, the researchers said, but are paying the greatest price. “The responsibility for the warming rests primarily with a handful of major emitters, and this warming has resulted in the enrichment of a few wealthy countries at the expense of the poorest people in the world,” Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography and one of the study’s co-authors, said in a press release. While the numbers are startling, they may actually be on the low end. The research did not factor in the value of biodiversity, the psychological benefits of nature, cultural connections to the environment, and other costs that aren’t reflected in market-based measures like GDP. A UN report released Monday urged countries to consider these aspects of their relationship with the environment rather than focusing purely on economic indicators.
States with the most CO2 emissions --- Although the United States has seen a 12% decrease in carbon dioxide emissions since 2005, according to EPA findings, the June 30, 2022, U.S. Supreme Court decision that hamstrings that agency from regulating carbon emissions effectively transferred the onus for the meaningful address of climate change onto the individual states. Meanwhile, the carbon footprint of each respective state looks drastically different. While many states implemented solutions for decreasing total carbon emissions, other states have run into complications—particularly on the industrial level, as well as the use of transportation—that still require high usage of fossil fuels. As energy consumption is a major factor in the production and release of CO2, Stacker cited 2019 data released in April 2022 from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to explore which states emit the most carbon dioxide from energy consumption. State-level figures are normalized on a per-capita basis. A 2019 U.S. Energy Information Administration report found that from 2005-2016, 41 states successfully reduced their carbon emissions while emission levels rose in nine states. States with larger geographic areas, such as Texas and California, continued to lead the pack in terms of emission levels; in fact, Texas showed the highest overall emission increase during this period of any U.S. state. But there were also large states that lean heavily on automotive manufacturing and steel production that managed significant reductions. Case in point: Ohio dropped its emission level by 24% during the reporting period. Carbon emissions refer to the production and release of greenhouse gas derived from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas for various human activities, among them electricity generation, transportation, and heat production. The burning of solid waste, trees, and other biological materials can also result in a chemical reaction that releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Greenhouse gas is primarily emitted in the form of carbon dioxide—79% of all emissions took this form as of 2020, according to the EPA—but methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gas are also contributors. The U.S. Geological Survey found nearly one-quarter of carbon dioxide emissions (23.7%) come from fossil fuels extracted on public lands as of a 2018 report that covered the period 2005-2014, while the NOAA has tracked a steady increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1960, demonstrating that despite gains in carbon reduction in many areas of the country, levels generally continue to rise and along with them global atmospheric concentrations are causing increases in temperature.
Biggest CCS failure clouds Supreme Court ruling - The future for carbon capture and storage has perhaps never been brighter. Congress has appropriated billions of dollars of funding to the CCS technology through last year’s bipartisan infrastructure law. And the Supreme Court’s recent ruling in the West Virginia v. EPA case left the door open for EPA to require carbon capture as a way to reduce CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel-fired power plants. But there’s a cloud hanging over the potential CCS-building boom: Petra Nova. The $1 billion project was once the world’s largest post-combustion carbon capture system. Backed by the Department of Energy, it began operating in December 2016 — and shut down less than four years later. Petra Nova’s operator, NRG Energy Inc., cited the challenging economic conditions at the time, prompted by the pandemic-induced economic slowdown. The world economy has bounced back since then, but Petra Nova remains shuttered. Meanwhile, the conventional coal and natural gas units of NRG’s W.A. Parish Electric Generating Station — home to the shuttered Petra Nova installation — continue to dump planet-warming carbon emissions into the atmosphere. There are now just 27 operational CCS projects around the world, according to data from the Global CCS Institute, an environmental think tank. But NRG has no immediate plans to return Petra Nova into service. “Options are being explored for improving the economics to allow for restart of the facility,” spokesperson Ann Duhon said in an email. “Although oil prices have rebounded from where they were when the facility was mothballed, there is a long lead time to restart the carbon capture facility and it is not economic to operate for short periods based solely on fluctuations in oil prices.”
Carbon pipeline opponents decry ‘sham’ process - Iowa Capital Dispatch - Those who oppose liquid carbon pipelines in Iowa confronted on Tuesday the regulatory board members charged with approving such plans, and some insinuated their votes were bought with money and political clout. Three pipelines are proposed that would lay a total of more than 1,500 miles of pipe across the state. “This process is a sham; its outcome is preordained,” Jon Green, a Johnson County supervisor, told the three-member Iowa Utilities Board at its regular monthly meeting. Board members have repeatedly declined to publicly reveal how they might rule on eminent domain requests that will almost certainly be required to build the pipelines. Eminent domain uses government authority to force property owners to accept easements on their property for projects deemed to be of public benefit. Summit Carbon Solutions has made the most progress toward obtaining a hazardous liquid pipeline permit from the state. It has finalized agreements with landowners of nearly 40% of its 680-mile route in Iowa, said Courtney Ryan, a spokesperson for the company. That’s a sizable increase from a little more than a month ago, when the company reported it had obtained voluntary easements for about 30% of the route. But many landowners have indicated they will not relent in their opposition. The board has said it will not set a weekslong hearing to consider the Summit permit until the company provides a list of properties for which it will request eminent domain. To grant the power of eminent domain, the IUB needs to determine that the pipelines benefit the general public. Proponents say the pipelines will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ethanol plants — there are about 40 of them in Iowa — to boost the long-term viability of the fuel. Ethanol is an important market for crop farmers because more than half of the state’s corn goes to produce it. Opponents say the pipelines primarily benefit the pipeline companies that are poised to earn billions of dollars, mainly due to federal tax incentives for sequestering carbon dioxide. Those tax credits go to the ethanol plants where the carbon is captured and compressed into a liquid, and the plants pay the pipeline companies to transport it to Illinois or North Dakota where it is pumped deep underground. “If you join us, the rest of your life you can hold your head high knowing that you didn’t have a price,” James Norris, a Montgomery County landowner, told the board on Tuesday. “The answer is simple. You’re either with big corporations trying to buy favor or with hard-working Iowans.”
Iowans ask state regulators to reject three carbon capture pipelines - Zachary Ide played a message his grandmother left him a few years ago as workers built the Dakota Access pipeline through her family's farm. Her voice cracking, Reba McWilliams apologized to her grandson for calling him at work. But she said she had to tell someone. "Everything is tore up," McWilliams said in the recording. "They're plowing around in the mud," damage that could take years to repair. Now another pipeline company, Navigator CO2 Ventures, wants to dig through the family's Mahaska County farm, Ide said. "Your decision to allow eminent domain hurt countless farmers" with the Dakota Access pipeline, a controversial crude oil pipeline that cuts across 18 Iowa counties, carrying 750,000 barrels of crude daily from North Dakota to Illinois. "Now here we are again," said Ide, who was one of nearly two dozen farmers, landowners and environmentalists who pleaded with the Iowa Utilities Board on Tuesday to deny construction of three proposed carbon capture pipeline projects through Iowa. More: What we know about three carbon capture pipelines proposed in Iowa As with Dakota Access, many of the concerns voiced Tuesday centered on the possibility the pipeline developers — Navigator CO2, Summit Carbon Solutions and Archer-Daniels-Midland — could receive eminent domain powers, enabling the companies to force unwilling landowners to sell access to their land for construction. Other opponents cited concerns about the pipelines' safety and the impact construction would have on farmland and underground drainage systems used to move water from fields to improve yields. Navigator, Summit and ADM have proposed capturing carbon dioxide from ethanol, fertilizer and other industrial ag plants, liquefying it under pressure, and transporting it via the pipelines from Iowa and other Midwestern states to locations in North Dakota and Illinois, where they plan to sequester it deep underground.
Opinion: Don't be fooled by exaggerated 'benefits' of carbon pipelines --One of the companies proposing pipelines in Iowa to sequester CO2 from ethanol production commissioned a report from a private firm, Ernst & Young , that vastly overestimates the economic benefits of the pipelines.This is not the first time pipelines' benefits have been inflated — it has, in fact, happened repeatedly, from the Keystone XL to the Dakota Access pipeline. A report by Iowa State University economist Dave Swenson makes this clear.These studies are a rhetorical device to convince decision makers and local communities of the benefits of pipelines, but they are not a very useful policy tool because, as I will detail below, they mischaracterize benefits and because they ignore costs, particularly environmental ones. The CO2 ethanol pipelines are different from oil pipelines like Keystone because they critically depend on subsidies from the federal government and California, so the public should have access to credible, science-based information on whether there are more effective ways to spend public money to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the environmental costs of all alternatives should be thoroughly assessed.The Ernst & Young study follows the Dakota Access playbook in overestimating the economic impacts of the pipelines, which are largely transitory and limited to the construction period, and — even then — heavily depend on out-of-state inputs and labor.The real economic benefits of the pipelines will be much lower than estimated by Ernst & Young because none of the pipe, valves, pumps, and so on, are manufactured in the pipeline states. And the highly skilled welders who would be employed during construction are likely to come from Louisiana, Oklahoma and other places where pipeline industries are clustered, not the Midwest. Swenson, who just retired from Iowa State and is an expert on these issues, confirmed that, for example, with the Dakota Access pipeline, only 16 Iowa-based welders were certified to work on the pipeline.The transitory nature of the employment benefits in particular is masked by the use of “worker years” over the life of the project instead of assessing the employment effect every year. That approach would show how little long-term effects the projects have on employment in our region. Ernst & Young also overestimates the effects of the pipeline on the economy by using a national model instead of one that considers only the region of construction and operation, and by using that model to estimate tax impacts. The use of the national model inflates the indirect and induced economic activity effects.The pipelines will have minimum positive economic impacts once they are installed, but the risks and long-term effects on land will be long-lasting. The bottom line is that this commissioned study overestimates the benefits and has nothing to contribute to the issue of costs: monetary costs of the subsidies that would fall on Iowans as taxpayers, health risks to human and animals, and environmental costs to the land.
Carbon capture projects, regional CO2 pipeline design to get $2.6B in DOE funding proposal | Utility Dive The Department of Energy plans to offer $2.54 billion to help finance six carbon capture and storage, or CCS, demonstration projects at coal- and gas-fired power plants as well as at industrial facilities, according to a notice of intent issued Wednesday.DOE will also provide $100 million for designing regional carbon dioxide pipeline systems, the department said in a separate notice.“To meet President Biden’s climate goals, we have to rapidly decarbonize our power generation and heavy industries – such as steel production – that are essential to the clean energy transition,” DOE Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement. So far, CCS hasn’t taken off in the power sector. NRG Energy, for example, mothballed its Petra Nova carbon capture project at a Texas power plant in 2020 after experiencing operating problems and financial losses. It was the only carbon capture facility at a U.S. power plant.DOE aims to spur carbon capture and storage development using funding authorized by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The department intends to begin taking applications for funding in August or September.The department said it expects to accept 12 applications for the initial design of CCS projects, which would receive a total of $160 million in DOE funding.It then plans to offer $2.1 billion for the detailed design and construction of six CCS projects, two at coal-fired power plants, two at gas-fired plants and two at industrial facilities. The funding requires applicants to pay for at least half of their project’s costs. Proposed projects must capture at least 95% of the carbon emissions from the facilities.
The Author of California's Failed Fossil Fuel Divestment Bill Describes What Went Wrong - After narrowly passing the California State Senate, the Legislature’s fossil fuel divestment bill, SB 1173, recently met a silent death in the Assembly, where it didn’t even come before a public hearing. Instead, a single Democratic lawmaker refused to take up the legislation in his committee, which it needed to pass in order to advance to the Assembly floor for a full vote. It was an anticlimactic defeat for a bill supported by more than 100 environment and climate-focused groups and others, including the state Treasurer’s Office, the city of Los Angeles and the California Federation of Teachers. Despite advocates’ extensive campaign to contact and nudge legislators on the fence, the bill — which would have directed managers of two state pension funds to divest upwards of $11 billion from the 200 largest oil and gas companies within eight years — succumbed to a bureaucratic quirk of the California Legislature, where some legislators carry outsized power to shape the state’s agenda and priorities. Because next year is the start of a new two-year session, any lawmaker interested in taking up the bill’s purpose will have to draft a new bill and lobby for its passage in both chambers all over again. Having identified the committee process as a chokepoint for climate bills, Capital & Main spoke with divestment bill author Sen. Lena Gonzalez (D-Long Beach) to learn what went wrong and whether such bills can succeed in the future. Note: This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
EPA faces legal dead ends after SCOTUS climate decision - Regulators at EPA will have to draft fresh carbon rules for power plants without knowing if they’ll survive the legal uncertainty created by the Supreme Court’s climate decision last month. That thrusts the agency into a yearslong process of writing rules to reduce power sector emissions with the risk that whatever they do could run afoul of the high court. If EPA runs repeatedly into legal dead ends as it refines its understanding of what the court will accept, it would leave the power grid unregulated for carbon for much of the decade, while potentially leading regulators to offer insufficient climate rules that might be accepted by the conservative court. The casualty could be President Joe Biden’s climate goals, including his objective of cutting the sector’s carbon output 80 percent by 2030 and making it net-zero five years later. “I’m not sure that the court’s intent was to create uncertainty, but I also don’t get the sense that the conservative justices will mind if the uncertainty that this decision foments causes agencies like EPA to disfavor creative solutions to new problems,” said Lisa Heinzerling in an interview. She wrote the winning briefs in a 2007 Supreme Court case that established EPA’s authority to regulate greenhouse gases. EPA is preparing to offer new proposals next year to replace the Obama-era standard, known as the Clean Power Plan, at the heart of the court’s landmark decision last month in West Virginia v. EPA. Agency air chief Joe Goffman told E&E News the agency has been “focusing on a menu of several different options for our power plant proposal and those options remain on the table.” “We will screen any proposal through the court’s decision as we move forward with our outreach and plan to issue a proposal early next year,” he said. But the high court has offered EPA few pointers on how to write rules for new and existing power plants that could survive judicial challenges. In West Virginia, it said fuel-switching is out of bounds, but avoided weighing in on other regulatory models that might have given the agency a road map. The court’s six conservative justices embraced an emerging legal doctrine that demands regulatory agencies show explicit statutory instructions from Congress for virtually any meaningful rule they might draft. The so-called major questions doctrine will make it harder for agencies to do their jobs, while arming their opponents with a powerful new tool, said Thomas Lorenzen, a partner at Crowell & Moring. “If you are a challenger of agency rulemaking, the upside of the major questions doctrine is that it creates a lot of uncertainty about what the courts will let agencies writ broad do,” he said. “If you are EPA or another federal agency, it’s a worry because you will not know until you try it whether a particular rulemaking approach will survive judicial scrutiny.”
Herschel Walker: U.S. stuck cleaning China's air pollution - Because air moves, there’s no reason to spend money on cutting climate pollution, Georgia’s Republican Senate candidate, Herschel Walker, said over the weekend.Walker, a renowned football player recruited for the Senate race by former President Donald Trump, has so far tried to avoid scrutiny on the campaign trail. He declined to debate his primary opponents. And he’s mostly avoided questions from the media, especially since he acknowledged fathering three children whom he had previously kept secret.Walker is challenging Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in what is expected to be one of the most competitive races to decide control of the 50-50 Senate.On Saturday, Walker spoke at the Hall County Republican Party’s Independence Day picnic. Organizers barred reporters from attending and ejected a reporter for Atlanta’s WABE radio news, the reporter wrote on Twitter. But footage of the event was later uploaded to the county party’s Facebook page.Walker blamed high food prices on President Joe Biden’s climate agenda, including his decision to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline when he entered office. “Y’know, climate change — I’m gonna help y’all with that real quickly, and I’m gonna do it in the Wrightsville way, so you can understand what I’m saying,” Walker said, referring to his own birthplace.“We in America have some of the cleanest air and cleanest water of anybody in the world,” he said, before mocking Democrats’ climate proposals. “So what we do is, we’re gonna put from the Green New Deal, millions or billions of dollars cleaning our good air up.”“So all of a sudden — China and India ain’t putting nothing into cleaning that situation up. So all that bad air [is coming from them],” he continued. “But since we don’t control the air, our good air decide to float over to China’s bad air. “So when China gets our good air, their bad air got to move. So it moves over to our good air space. And now we got to clean that back up,” he said.
Wealthy N.Y. areas called 'disadvantaged' for climate aid -— The Ralph Lauren boutique in Brooklyn’s north Williamsburg neighborhood sells a denim jacket for $459. A nearby bistro features sirloin steak for $39, and a condo in an old umbrella factory lists for $2.5 million. Gentrification has driven the median household income in this enclave of Birkenstocks and baby strollers to $166,600. That’s more than double its level 10 years ago and nearly two-and-a-half times higher than the New York State median. But the affluent neighborhood is considered a “disadvantaged community” because of its high pollution levels and legacy as an industrial area with a large minority population. The designation, proposed recently by New York’s state-appointed Climate Justice Working Group, would give north Williamsburg priority along with hundreds of low-income communities for state spending on climate mitigation. Yet it also illustrates the confounding results of experts as they struggle to identify environmental justice communities across the United States that will be among the first to receive public spending on climate protection based on racial and economic considerations. Officials in Washington and in state capitals are debating how to define “disadvantaged community,” a term that increasingly drives public policy and climate funding, yet has no official meaning. It comes as climate change uniquely threatens areas suffering from segregation, disinvestment and other manifestations of discrimination — and there’s a growing recognition that those areas must be prioritized for climate protection. Efforts to define disadvantaged communities are provoking arguments over how to balance factors such as environmental exposure, vulnerability to climate impacts and whether to exclude wealthier communities — like north Williamsburg.
A coming copper shortage could derail the energy transition, report finds - An all-electric future depends heavily on copper, and looming supply shortfalls could hamper nations' goals of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, according to a new report from S&P Global. Unless significant new supply becomes available, climate goals will be "short-circuited and remain out of reach," the report says. Electric vehicles, solar and wind power, and batteries for energy storage all run on copper. An EV requires 2.5 times as much copper as an internal combustion engine vehicle, according to S&P Global. Meanwhile, solar and offshore wind need two times and five times, respectively, more copper per megawatt of installed capacity than power generated using natural gas or coal. Copper is also key to the infrastructure that transports renewable energy, thanks in part to its electrical conductivity and low reactivity. Its uses include cables, transistors and inverters. "The energy transition is going to be dependent much more on copper than our current energy system," Daniel Yergin, S&P Global vice chairman, told CNBC. "There's just been the assumption that copper and other minerals will be there. ... Copper is the metal of electrification, and electrification is much of what the energy transition is all about." The report forecasts copper demand nearly doubling to 50 million metric tons by 2035. By 2050, demand will reach more than 53 million metric tons. To put this figure in perspective, S&P Global noted that that's "more than all the copper consumed in the world between 1900 and 2021." Renewable energy deployment will account for much of the demand spike. S&P Global forecasts copper needed for EVs, wind, solar and batteries tripling by the middle of the next decade. This will happen alongside demand growth from other areas, pushing copper's demand to never-before-seen levels. It's not as simple as building new mines. A new copper mine takes 16 years, on average, to get off the ground, according to the International Energy Agency.
The Capitalist Solution to ‘Save’ the Planet: Make It an Asset Class & Sell it - Yves here. Producer Lynn Fries speaks to John Bellamy Foster on a critically important and underreported topic: how investors are trying to use rapidly moving climate crisis as an opportunity to loot even more of the commons. (video & transcript) By Lynn Fries Hello and welcome. I’m Lynn Fries producer of Global Political Economy or GPEnewsdocs. Today’s guest is John Bellamy Foster.He’ll be talking about the financialization of the earth as a new ecological regime. A regime where the rapid financialization of nature is promoting a Great Expropriation of the global commons and the dispossession of humanity on a scale that exceeds all previous human history. And which is accelerating the destruction of planetary ecosystems and of the earth as a safe home for humanity. All in the name of saving nature by turning it into a market. Our guest’s Monthly Review articles: The Defense of Nature: Resisting the Financialization of the Earth and Nature as a Mode of Accumulation: Capitalism and the Financialization of the Earthdetail this argument. Joining us from Oregon, John Bellamy Foster is Professor of Sociology at the University of Oregon and Editor of Monthly Review. He has written widely on political economy and is a major scholar on environmental issues. He is author of numerous books including Marx’s Ecology: Materialism and Nature, The Great Financial Crisis: Causes and Consequences, The Ecological Rift: Capitalism’s War on the Earth. A forthcoming book, Capitalism in the Anthropocene: Ecological Ruin or Ecological Revolution, is coming soon from Monthly Review Press. Welcome, John.
SUV-Hating Tyre Extinguishers Group Is Deflating Tires as Protest - An environmentalist group called the Tyre Extinguishers has tips on how to deflate—not slash—the tires on SUVs in crowded city areas as a way to convince people not to drive the behemoths there.After starting in the U.K. earlier this year, the group has reported its first actions in the U.S., with SUVs in New York, Chicago, and the Bay Area all targeted.The decentralized Tyre Extinguishers (who claim no leader) say that large vehicles used by the handicapped or groups should not be hit, but that electric vehicles and hybrids are valid targets.Anti-SUV protests are nothing new, and have existed pretty much ever since the large vehicles—too large, to some—became increasingly popular in the 1990s and early 2000s. Those of us who were there remember the Hummer salute, for example. Calls for a ban on SUVs have surfaced now and again over the years. In 2019, anti-SUV activists protested at the Frankfurt auto show, calling out the "SUV-ization" of the industry. These protesters were glad to make their claims in public, where they were certain to be not only noticed but also apprehended. Now, a new wave of attacks on SUVs is taking place way, way out of sight. Or, at least, that's the idea. As first reported by The Drive, a decentralized group called the Tyre Extinguishers (the spelling hints at the group's U.K. origins) is promoting the idea of deflating the tires of as many SUVs as possible to help make it "impossible to own a huge polluting 4x4 in the world's urban areas." By deflating enough tires on these "massive, unnecessary vehicles," the group hopes to cause enough "inconvenience and expense for their owners" that people just stop driving big vehicles in crowded areas.This content is imported from Twitter. You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site. The group said in March that supporters had deflated the tires of around 100 SUVs in cities across England, and that was just the start. The group now offers flyers in 10 languages and, earlier this month, celebrated the first actions in the U.S., claiming that dozens of SUVs in "several major cities, including New York, Chicago, and the Bay Area" had been targeted. The group's reasoning and politics are abundantly clear. Large vehicles like SUVs are "a disaster for our health, our public safety and our climate," the group says on its website. "Bigger and bigger cars are dominating our towns and cities, and all so a privileged few can flaunt their wealth. Because governments and politicians have failed to protect us from this danger, we must protect ourselves."
Climate activists expand tire-slashing operation beyond NYC. Here are the cities they've hit - The U.K. climate group whose members deflated tires on an estimated 40 vehicles in New York City last month recently announced similar actions in cities nationwide. The Tyre Extinguishers, which encourages activists to deflate tires of parked sports utility vehicles (SUV) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, said it has already spread to Chicago and the San Francisco area this month. Individuals affiliated with the group have deflated the tires of 20 SUVs in Chicago, another 20 SUVs in Scranton, Pa., and 12 SUVs near San Francisco this month, according to the group. "It can happen anywhere, anytime," a spokesperson for the group told Fox News Digital in an email. "If you're reading this and you own an SUV, scrap it before we get to it."The spokesperson previously told Fox News Digital that the group expected to "expand massively" across the U.S. in the coming weeks.The group explained that it aims to take SUVs out of service because they are a "disaster for our health, our public safety and our climate.""Bigger and bigger cars are dominating our towns and cities, and all so a privileged few can flaunt their wealth," the Tyre Extinguishers' website states. "Because governments and politicians have failed to protect us from this danger, we must protect ourselves."On the site, the group provides tips for activists to quickly deflate tires and a leaflet that can be printed and left on targeted vehicles windshields. The document asks the victim to not "take it personally" that their tires were deflated.The pamphlet that activists with the group Tyre Extinguishers left on SUVs in New York City on Tuesday. The Tyre Extinguishers don't exclude electric vehicles (EV) from their actions, explaining such cars also have a major carbon footprint. The group's spokesperson forwarded Fox News Digital an email from an EV owner located in San Francisco, complaining their vehicle was targeted and demanding compensation.
Eco-zealots who slashed SUV tires in NYC attack luxury cars in Chicago, San Francisco and Scranton -Eco-zealots are slashing tires on SUVs across the globe in an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.The Tire Extinguishers movement, which started in the United Kingdom, has spread to the United States and leaders promised to 'expand massively' in the coming weeks.New York City was hard hit by the group last month, when the tires of approximately 40 SUVs were deflated on the Upper East Side.Residents in Chicago, San Francisco, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, were also targeted by the climate activists. The group is most prominent across the UK and Europe, where activists have allegedly slashed more than 5,000 tires since the movement launched in March. The Tire Extinguishers claim SUVs and 4x4 vehicles are a 'disaster for our health, our public safety and our climate.'The group alleges that government officials and policies have 'failed to protect us from this danger' so they have chosen to take action into their own hands.'We want to make it impossible to own a huge polluting 4x4 in the world's urban areas,' the group's web site states.'We do this by deflating the tres (sic) of these massive, unnecessary vehicles, causing inconvenience and expense for their owners.'The group, which publishes its slashing efforts online, took credit for deflating 40 tires in Manhattan last month. Members also targeted 20 vehicles in Chicago, 20 in Scranton and at least 23 in San Francisco. Tire Extinguishers claims the group is also active in Arizona and Colorado, but hasn't published slashing data for either state. A Tire Extinguishers spokesperson told Fox News the group is working on it's expansion across America.'It can happen anywhere, anytime,' the spokesperson warned. 'If you're reading this and you own an SUV, scrap it before we get to it.'
Midwest wind energy transmission line gets supersized - The developer of a planned high-voltage transmission line from Kansas to Indiana yesterday announced that the project is being expanded in response to strong demand for wind energy from customers in the region. Chicago-based Invenergy LLC, which purchased the Grain Belt Express project in 2018 and took over its development, plans to increase the line’s capacity 25 percent to 5,000 megawatts and boost its midpoint delivery capacity at a Missouri converter station fivefold to 2,500 MW. Invenergy also announced it would build the $7 billion project in two phases, enabling the company to accelerate construction of the initial phase from Kansas to the Missouri converter station. The announced expansion comes a month after Missouri Gov. Mike Parson (R) signed legislation that exempted the Grain Belt Express project from eminent domain reforms enacted by the same legislation. Passage of H.B. 2005 ended years of acrimonious debate over the line (Energywire, May 12). It also comes as states and utilities in the region are pushing grid operators to expand transmission access to enable new renewable energy projects to come online. “This state-of-the-art transmission infrastructure project will save families and businesses billions of dollars in electric costs each year, protect our communities by improving reliability and power prosperity across the Midwest well into the future,” Shashank Sane, executive vice president and head of transmission at Invenergy, said in a statement. The 780-mile Grain Belt Express line was initially proposed more than a decade ago to carry wind energy from southwest Kansas to Indiana, where it would plug into the PJM Interconnection LLC grid, the country’s largest electricity market. The project is among the high-voltage lines being pursued in the Midwest to connect remote places with good wind and solar resources to cities where electric demand is greatest. The line is a so-called merchant line, meaning its costs wouldn’t be spread broadly across the region like most intrastate transmission lines. Instead, only utilities and other consumers that buy capacity on the line would pay. Among those customers are more than three dozen sm
What an $8B Western grid project means for U.S. clean energy -A planned 2,000-mile network of electric lines known as the Energy Gateway is more than a project to transport massive amounts of wind and solar energy among Western states that face potential supply shortfalls. It’s also a key piece of the Department of Energy’s clean electricity strategy. The cluster of high-voltage lines, located mostly in Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming and Utah, is among two dozen “shovel-ready,” long-distance transmission projects that DOE is counting on to accelerate an enormous expansion of wind and solar power this decade. The transmission buildout is needed to reach President Joe Biden’s goal of a zero-carbon U.S. grid by 2035, according to DOE officials. With federal authority to order reductions in greenhouse gas emissions now sharply limited by last month’s U.S. Supreme Court decision in West Virginia v. EPA, new transmission lines as clean energy conduits are even more vital to the Biden administration’s goals. Regulatory and environmental issues, local residents’ opposition and competitive interests have delayed some lines for more than a decade. The Energy Gateway network, led by Portland, Ore.-based PacifiCorp, a power supplier for parts of six Western states, was proposed in 2007. Its initial purpose was to deliver more power from Wyoming coal-fired generators, but the eastern Rockies’ wind energy potential has changed that formula. The $8 billion Gateway project is being built in pieces across multiple states. Initial sections are in place, but much of it remains to be developed. Two upcoming Gateway expansion segments are expected to be in service by late 2024. Stefan Bird, chief executive of PacifiCorp’s Pacific Power unit, said the energy that will flow over Gateway is essential to making Western states’ power supplies greener, cheaper and more secure. It could carry about 4,000 megawatts of electricity, enough to power around 3 million average U.S. homes, based on Energy Information Administration calculations. “The really big question that we are tackling is, how do we decarbonize our region — and frankly the entire western U.S. — affordably and reliably?” Bird said in an interview. “As we move towards a renewable world you want to get the least-cost resources.” In PacifiCorp’s region, that is Wyoming wind power, Bird said. The new lines are critically important to provide enough power to meet expected growth in the system, according to the company. “The West really has the most abundant clean energy resources that you could hope to have,” Bird added, including Southwestern states’ massive solar power potential. “It really is just a matter of how we build the transmission.”
Western solar boom threatens wildlife's home on the range - It was not long after Wyoming’s first large-scale solar project came online in 2019 that the antelopes made themselves known. More than 1,000 pronghorns — the “American antelope” — galloped onto Wyoming’s Highway 372 that winter, terrifying drivers and biologists alike. The animals would typically migrate over public land, but with the 700-acre Sweetwater Solar farm blocking their way, they took the highway. State officials are working now to make sure that doesn’t happen again as energy developers eye wide-open swaths of land for utility-scale solar projects. Angi Bruce, deputy director of the Wyoming Game and Fish Department, said that while the state fosters energy development, it also prioritizes “making sure our wildlife thrives because we value it so highly here.” “Wyoming is one of the few states that still has large intact landscapes of native ecosystems that are outstanding for support of wildlife populations,” she said. “There can be conflicts.” A recent study sheds light on how those conflicts may emerge. The study, published in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, used GPS collars on adult pronghorns and measured their movements before and after Sweetwater’s construction. Nearly 70 percent of pronghorns used the planned site and had to alter their migration. Among migrating animals, 86 percent used the site and were pushed into a new route. As much as 12 percent of the species’ average summer range and 10 percent of its average winter range were lost. Hall Sawyer, a researcher with Western Ecosystems Technology and the study’s lead author, said energy developers have always had to be mindful of wildlife impacts, but solar farms present a particular challenge. Safety rules require large solar installations to be surrounded by a fence at least 2 meters (about 6 ½ feet) tall. “It’s so simple, but often overlooked, that these fences are impermeable to big game and larger mammals,” Sawyer said in an interview. “That habitat is just gone.” The problem could also affect elk, deer and other large mammals.
'Cow power' goes dark as manure-to-electricity fizzles - — After almost two decades making power from manure, Jon Patterson is done. The electric generator he installed on his dairy farm in upstate New York’s Finger Lakes region in the late 2000s sits idle while he contemplates more promising ways to make money from the back end of a cow. Patterson’s problem: Despite promises that farmers could make a windfall from selling electricity to utility companies, dairy farmers in New York are paid so little for the power they generate from manure that they can’t afford to maintain the digesters and related systems they put in years ago. “Right now we’ve shut it down and stopped doing anything with it,” Patterson said on a recent walk around his farm, where he milks about 1,700 cows. “It’s very disheartening to go through all this and be the same place we were in the 1970s.” He added, “There needs to be a market for renewable energy.” New York’s experience with “cow power” illustrates the challenges for making electricity from manure across the country. The dairy industry has yet to settle on a system that consistently rewards farmers for the practice, leading to disappointment in many places even as one state, Vermont, keeps the idea alive through a voluntary surcharge on ratepayers. Absent a national commitment to make renewable energy from manure financially viable, cow power is unlikely to catch on the way its proponents hoped 20 years ago. While many environmental groups are pleased with this development — seeing electricity from manure as a false green promise — some farmers are changing gears in the quest to make something out of their cows’ waste.
In a Twist, Old Coal Plants Help Deliver Renewable Power. Here’s How. - Across the country, aging and defunct coal-burning power plants are getting new lives as solar, battery and other renewable energy projects, partly because they have a decades-old feature that has become increasingly valuable: They are already wired into the power grid.The miles of high-tension wires and towers often needed to connect power plants to customers far and wide can be costly, time consuming and controversial to build from scratch. So solar and other projects are avoiding regulatory hassles, and potentially speeding up the transition to renewable energy, by plugging into the unused connections left behind as coal becomes uneconomical to keep burning.In Illinois alone, at least nine coal-burning plants are on track to become solar farms and battery storage facilities in the next three years. Similar projects are taking shape in Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, North Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Maryland. In Massachusetts and New Jersey, two retired coal plants along the coast are being repurposed to connect offshore wind turbines to the regional electrical grids.“A silver lining of having had all of these dirty power plants is that now, we have fairly robust transmission lines in those places” said Jack Darin, director of the Illinois chapter of the Sierra Club, an environmental advocacy group. “That’s a huge asset.”Over the past two decades, more than 600 coal-burning generators totaling about 85 gigawatts of generating capacity have retired, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. (Individual power plants can have more than one generator.) A majority of the 266 remaining coal-burning power plants in the country were built in the 1970s and 1980s, and are nearing the end of their approximately 50-year operational lifetime. Most of that retired capacity will not be replaced with coal, as the industry gets squeezed out by cheaper renewable energy and tougher emissions regulations. At the same time, renewable energy producers are facing obstacles getting their projects connected to the grid. Building new power lines is costly and controversial as neighbors often oppose transmission lines that can disturb scenic vistas or potentially reduce property values nearby. In addition, getting power-line projects approved by regulators can be time consuming.
Texas Grid Operator Warns Of Blackouts -- The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates Texas' electric power grid, asked households and businesses to conserve power this afternoon and warned of potential rolling blackouts. The grid faces a "potential reserve capacity shortage with no market solution available," ERCOT said in a notice released Sunday night. ERCOT asked people to reduce energy consumption between 1400-2000 local time when temperatures are expected to soar into triple-digit territory. Scorching temperatures are driving record power demand and low wind output could push the grid near its breaking point. Current projections show wind generation coming in around 8% of its total capacity during peak hours today. Today's forecasted power demand is expected to be around 79,671 megawatts (near a record high).
Texas grid operator tells residents to curb power as heat hits record highs - Texas' grid operator is warning residents to conserve energy for the second time this year, as fears mount over potential rolling blackouts amid scorching temperatures this week. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages about 90% of the state's electricity load, said that residents and businesses should turn up thermostats by at least one degree Fahrenheit and not use any major appliances between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. Central time on Monday. The Texas regulator also projected a shortage in energy reserves on Monday "with no market solution available," but said it does not expect systemwide outages. Less than 10% of wind power generation will be available on Monday, ERCOT said, further lowering the amount of available power in the state. "The heat wave that has settled on Texas and much of the central United States is driving increased electric use," ERCOT said in a statement.. "While solar power is generally reaching near full generation capacity, wind generation is currently generating significantly less than what it historically generated in this time period." Roughly 50 million people in the U.S. were under heat warnings or advisories over the weekend, according to the National Weather Service. Heat indexes reached over 110 degrees in southeast Texas on Sunday, leading to record high power demand that's put pressure on the grid. Record power usage caused by extreme weather has prompted concerns over the vulnerability of the state's grid system, following a deadly winter storm in February 2021 that left millions of residents without power for days. Climate change has triggered more frequent and intense disasters such as heat waves, drought and wildfires, which have forced more blackouts and overwhelmed some of the country's infrastructure. Extreme weather has caused 67% more major power outages in the U.S. since 2000, according to an analysis by research group Climate Central. ERCOT forecast that electricity demand in Texas will peak at 79,671 megawatts, slightly below the available 80,083 megawatts on Monday.
Texans hit with second power conservation request this week as temperatures hit triple digits -The Lone Star State’s grid operator is asking Texans to voluntarily conserve electricity Wednesday during a major heat wave, just two days after issuing a similar warning for Monday.The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) issued a “conservation appeal” asking customers to reduce their electricity use from 2 p.m. to 8 p.m.Monday’s appeal cited “record high electric demand” and low wind to power turbines. Wednesday’s appeal adds two new issues: cloud cover reducing solar power in West Texas and a number of forced thermal power outages that “exceeds ERCOT forecasts.”ERCOT said that Texans complying with Monday’s ask — by turning down thermostats and refraining from running major appliances — reduced energy use by 500 megawatts. The state’s struggle with its power grid has been a pillar of Texas gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke’s campaign against Gov. Greg Abbott (R). “Abbott wouldn’t be repeatedly telling us to cut the A/C in 100+ degree heat if he had just fixed the grid,” O’Rourke wrote Wednesday on Twitter, responding to the second appeal.Abbott’s press secretary and senior communications advisor Renae Eze responded toO’Rourke’s Monday comments, saying that ERCOT’s appeal for voluntary conservation is “one of the many tools at their disposal to ensure enough power keeps flowing.”
How problems with the Texas power grid are disrupting bitcoin mining (transcript) Argo Blockchain CEO Peter Wall joins Yahoo Finance Live to talk about how Texas power grid disruptions are impacting the bitcoin mining ecosystem and where the most active mining operations are located. Video Transcript Bitcoin miners in Texas are getting paid not to mine to ease pressure on the electric grid amid a heat wave there. For a closer look at what's happening, we have Peter Wall, CEO of Argo Blockchain. Thank you for joining us today.So obviously, this is an interesting phenomenon. We saw that ERCOT, which obviously takes care of brokering this deal, having some of these industries pare back on their energy use during some of this high demand. What is this doing for Bitcoin mining, having this heat wave right now?
Texas Wind Power Is Failing Right When the State Needs It Most – Bloomberg - Wind power -- a key source of electricity in Texas -- is being sidelined just when the Lone Star State needs it most, with turbines generating less than a 10th of what they’re capable of. A scorching heat wave is pushing the Texas grid to the brink. Power demand is surging as people crank up air conditioners. But meanwhile, wind speeds have fallen to extremely low levels, and that means the state’s fleet of turbines is at just 8% of their potential output.
Is Burying Power Lines Fire-Prevention Magic, or Magical Thinking? - With the West stricken by rising temperatures, deepening drought and blasting winds, often all that’s needed to ignite a fire is a spark. Increasingly, power lines strung through expansive wildlands to sprawling Western communities provide the flashes that grow into megafires. Burying electrical distribution lines prevents nearly all such ignitions, and the related power outages, but prices of up to $4 million or more for each mile of “undergrounding,” and difficult logistics have prevented widespread adoption of the practice. Power lines shouldn’t be sparking wildfires anymore, said Paul Chinowsky of Resilient Analytics, an engineering consulting firm in Boulder, Colorado that focuses on adaptation to climate impacts. “This should be one of the top priorities that’s going on in the West,” Chinowosky said. “If we want to minimize wildfires, if we want to minimize the risk to our reliability, start undergrounding.” While it’s possible to make structures more resilient to wildfires with everything from fire resistant building materials to sprinkler systems, their effectiveness plummets when 100 mph winds blast conflagrations through neighborhoods. That makes preventing ignitions a priority, Chinowski said. “You’ve got to minimize the threat from the power source because you can only do so much minimizing it to the structures,” he said. “And right now, the most effective way to minimize that is to underground.”While burying power lines can almost eliminate their potential to start fires, it’s an expensive solution, with costs of millions of dollars a mile that are passed on to consumers. That makes the solution a hard pill to swallow for utility companies, residents and public utility commissions. And undergrounding can be slow, with utility corridors crossing various jurisdictions, including public lands where federal reviews can delay and even stymie projects.
California's Energy War On The Poor - California—the province that for decades has led the United States in cultural issues like fashion, gay rights, and entertainment—has devolved into a state where the American dream is being strangled by a phalanx of energy and climate regulations that are imposing huge regressive taxes on the poor and middle class. And worse yet, the state’s vast bureaucracy is imposing yet more regulations that will further tighten the financial noose on Californians. While the state is known for posh spots like Beverly Hills, Marin County, and Silicon Valley, the Golden State has the highest poverty rate in America. Indeed, the poverty figures in the state can only be described as shocking. A 2021 report by the Public Policy Institute of California found that “More than a third of Californians are living in or near poverty. Nearly one in six (16.4 percent) Californians were not in poverty but lived fairly close to the poverty line … All told, more than a third (34.0 percent) of state residents were poor or near-poor in 2019.” Los Angeles, the state’s biggest city, and a magnet for generations of immigrants has one of the highest poverty rates among America’s biggest cities.California also has the largest Latino population in America. About 15 million Latinos live in the Golden State and they account for about 40 percent of its population. But the PPIC report also found that more than Latinos account for nearly 52 percent “of poor Californians but only 39.7 percent of the state population.” Despite these numbers, California policymakers continue to implement policies on energy, housing, and transportation that are driving up the cost of living and deepening the state’s poverty problem.In April, the state’s Air Resources Board released a plan that will ban the sale of automobiles with internal combustion engines by 2035. The plan was cheered by a lawyer at the Center for Biological Diversity who said it was essential to “free our streets from tailpipe pollution as fast as possible.”In May, the Los Angeles City Council banned the use of natural gas appliances and heaters in new homes and businesses. By doing so, according to the Sierra Club, the city became the 57th municipality in the state to ban the fuel. The vote, said council member Nithya Raman, puts the city “in line with climate leaders across the country.” That climate leadership comes at a high cost to consumers. Why? On an energy-equivalent basis, electricity costs four times as much as natural gas.On July 1st, motorists in the state began paying an additional three-cent-per-gallon tax on gasoline, a move that will make California’s motor fuel even more expensive. In late June, motorists in the state were paying an average of $6.30 per gallon for gasoline, which is roughly 29 percent more than motorists in the rest of the US.Perhaps the most obvious casualty of California’s climate policies is the state’s tattered electric grid. Blackouts in the state have become so common, particularly in the Bay Area, that media outlets have largely quit reporting on them. Nearly every day, maps of Pacific Gas & Electric’s service territory show outages across wide swaths of central California. The state’s increased blackouts are coinciding with skyrocketing electricity prices. And those skyrocketing electricity prices are coinciding with the implementation of some of America’s most-aggressive renewable-energy mandates.
US Electric Car Sales Reach Key Milestone - Many people of a certain age can recall the first time they held a smartphone. The devices were weird and expensive and novel enough to draw a crowd at parties. Then, less than a decade later, it became unusual not to own one.That same society-altering shift is happening now with electric vehicles, according to a Bloomberg analysis of adoption rates around the world. The US is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical EV tipping point: 5% of new car sales powered only by electricity. This threshold signals the start of mass EV adoption, the period when technological preferences rapidly flip, according to the analysis.
Battery prices to rise for first time since 2010, slowing EV adoption: BNEF Global battery prices for electric vehicles and storage are expected to rise slightly this year, to an average of $135/kWh, due to supply chain issues and the rising cost of metals like lithium, cobalt and nickel, according to a July 5 report from BloombergNEF. The higher prices could slow the adoption of EVs globally, said Kwasi Ampofo, BNEF head of metals and mining and a co-author of the report. “Our EV adoption model relies heavily on electric vehicles becoming cheaper than internal combustion engines,” Ampofo said. The firm now expects price parity between the two types of vehicles to be reached in 2026, rather than 2023.Inflation is also impacting generation, according to BNEF data. The cost to build new onshore wind facilities has risen 7% year-over-year and fixed-axis solar prices have jumped 14%, according to separate research published June 30. Battery prices have been declining for more than a decade, but global events, inflation and supply constraints have — at least temporarily — reversed the slide, according to BNEF’s analysis.“This would be the first increase since 2010,” according to a summary of BNEF’s Battery Metals Outlook for the first half of 2022.“Undeterred by higher prices, demand for battery metals is forecast to reach 4.8 million metric tons this year, up 28% from a year earlier,” the summary said.Battery metals production capacity was declining before the global pandemic, Ampofo said, and Covid-19 exacerbated the issue. Some marginal capacity is expected to come online this year “but there’s still not enough to offset the growth we’ve seen in demand,” he said.The resulting price increase is expected to be slight, up from $132/kWh in 2021, but the impacts could be significant. Auto manufacturers will raise prices and it will take longer for EVs to be price-competitive with gas-powered vehicles, said Ampofo.EV sales are accelerating globally and could triple between 2021 and 2025, BNEF said last month. But the higher prices create a “growing risk that the transition is not an equitable one, and that many economies miss out on the benefits of better air quality and new investment.”Beyond China, Europe and the U.S., EV adoption rates are flat, said Ampofo.
Norwegian oil giant Equinor to buy U.S.-based battery storage firm - Norway's Equinor is to acquire U.S.-based battery storage developer East Point Energy after signing an agreement to take a 100% stake in the company.Equinor, a major producer of oil and gas, said Tuesday that Charlottesville-headquartered East Point Energy had a 4.1-gigawatt pipeline of "early to mid-stage battery storage projects focused on the US East Coast."According to Equinor, the transaction is slated for completion in the third quarter of 2022."Battery storage will play an important role in the energy transition as the world increases its share of intermittent renewable power," Equinor said."Battery storage is key to enabling further penetration of renewables, can contribute to stabilizing power markets and improve the security of supply," it added. In Dec. 2021, the International Energy Agency said the world's installed storage capacity was projected to jump by 56% over the next five years, hitting 270 GW by 2026.
State regulators to question AEP over Columbus blackouts today - State regulators will meet Wednesday to review American Electric Power’s decision to cut off electric service to 230,000 customers during a June heat wave to prevent a larger-scale blackout. A June 13 storm damaged three transmission lines — high voltage wires bringing energy from generating plants to transformers before it reaches customers — according to the company. An unspecified number of other Columbus lines “tripped from service unexpectedly” the next day, an AEP spokesman said. After the storm, a heat wave and soupy humidity set in. Demand for electricity exceeded the supply the decreased number of transmission lines could carry, threatening to overload them and cause a much larger blackout. AEP — at the direction of PJM, which operates the 13-state electrical grid — enacted “forced emergency outages” on June 14 at substations fed by the overloaded lines, the company said. Most residents regained power by June 16 but some were without until the next day. The company claims it had no discretion on who was to lose power but was at the mercy of malfunctioning powerlines. The NAACP and other organizations and politicians have questioned the company on this point. Others criticized the company for failing to warn customers in advance. “Customers were not notified,” said AEP spokesman Scott Blake. “There simply wasn’t enough time to do so and keep the grid functioning.” Data from the Columbus Public Health department shows a spike in emergency department visits for heat related illnesses during the blackout. It’s unknown if these people had lost power, and a CPH spokeswoman said no additional information was available.
VIDEO: NYC launches nuclear attack preparedness PSA - -- New York City launched a nuclear attack preparedness public service announcement on Monday, saying it’s best to be prepared even if such a strike is unlikely.“While the likelihood of a nuclear weapon incident occurring in/near New York City is very low, it is important New Yorkers know the steps to stay safe,” the city’s Emergency Management Department said in its announcement.The PSA encourages New Yorkers to take “key, simple steps in the event of such an incident.”The 90-second video starts with shots of destroyed city blocks. “So there’s been a nuclear attack,” an announcer says. “Don’t ask me how or why. Just know that the big one has hit. OK. So what do we do?”NYC Emergency Management released a PSA about nuclear attack preparedness. According to the PSA, there are three important steps to take.The first step is to “get inside” of a building fast and move away from any windows.The second step is to “stay inside” and head into a basement if you have access to one. If you were outside during the nuclear blast, get clean immediately, removing and bagging all outer clothing to keep radioactive dust or ash away from your body.The third step is to “stay tuned,” following media for any new information. New Yorkers can sign up for Notify NYC for official alerts and updates at NYC.gov/notifynyc or by calling 311.The PSA encourages New Yorkers to follow three steps in the event of a nuclear blast: "Get inside. Stay inside. Stay tuned." Photo credit NYC Emergency Management Emergency Management didn’t say if any factor in particular prompted the new PSA, but Commissioner Zach Iscol said in a statement, “As the threat landscape continues to evolve, it is important that New Yorkers know we are preparing for any imminent threats and are providing them with the resources they need to stay safe and informed.”The PSA comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin made unspecific warnings earlier this year about his country’s nuclear arsenal amid deteriorating relations with the West over Moscow's ongoing war in Ukraine. Christina Farrell, the first deputy commissioner of Emergency Management, told 1010 WINS that while a nuclear attack is “low probability” it would have “high impact,” so the city wants people feeling confident that they’re ready.
How nuclear war would affect Earth today - Russia's invasion of Ukraine has brought the threat of nuclear warfare to the forefront. But how would modern nuclear detonations impact the world today? A new study published today in AGU Advances provides stark information on the global impact of nuclear war.The study's lead author LSU Department of Oceanography & Coastal Sciences Assistant Professor Cheryl Harrison and coauthors ran multiple computer simulations to study the impacts of regional and larger scale nuclear warfare on the Earth's systems given today's nuclear warfare capabilities. Nine nations currently control more than 13,000 nuclear weapons in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. In all of the researchers' simulated scenarios, nuclear firestorms would release soot and smoke into the upper atmosphere that would block out the Sun resulting in crop failure around the world. In the first month following nuclear detonation, average global temperatures would plunge by about 13 degrees Fahrenheit, a larger temperature change than in the last Ice Age. "It doesn't matter who is bombing whom. It can be India and Pakistan or NATO and Russia. Once the smoke is released into the upper atmosphere, it spreads globally and affects everyone," said Harrison, who has a joint appointment at the LSU Center for Computation & Technology. Ocean temperatures would drop quickly and would not return to their pre-war state even after the smoke clears. As the planet gets colder, sea ice expands by more than 6 million square miles and 6 feet deep in some basins blocking major ports including Beijing's Port of Tianjin, Copenhagen and St. Petersburg. The sea ice would spread into normally ice-free coastal regions blocking shipping across the Northern Hemisphere making it difficult to get food and supplies into some cities such as Shanghai, where ships are not prepared to face sea ice. The sudden drop in light and ocean temperatures, especially from the Arctic to the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans, would kill the marine algae, which is the foundation of the marine food web, essentially creating a famine in the ocean. This would halt most fishing and aquaculture. The researchers simulated what would happen to the Earth's systems if the U.S. and Russia used 4,400 100-kiloton nuclear weapons to bomb cities and industrial areas, which resulted in fires ejecting 150 teragrams, or more than 330 billion pounds, of smoke and sunlight-absorbing black carbon, into the upper atmosphere. They also simulated what would happen if India and Pakistan detonated about 500 100-kiloton nuclear weapons resulting in 5 to 47 teragrams, or 11 billion to 103 billion pounds, of smoke and soot, into the upper atmosphere. This study shows the global interconnectedness of Earth's systems, especially in the face of perturbations whether they are caused by volcanic eruptions, massive wildfires or war. Volcanic eruptions also produce clouds of particles in the upper atmosphere. Throughout history, these eruptions have had similar negative impacts on the planet and civilization. "We can avoid nuclear war, but volcanic eruptions are definitely going to happen again. There's nothing we can do about it, so it's important when we're talking about resilience and how to design our society, that we consider what we need to do to prepare for unavoidable climate shocks," Harrison said. "We can and must however, do everything we can to avoid nuclear war. The effects are too likely to be globally catastrophic."
Environmentalists claim there is radiation danger in Martins Ferry but city officials say water is “safe” - News over high radiation levels found near a facility in Martins Ferry continues to stir up a heated debate. A few months ago, the Ohio Valley group CORR claimed radiation levels in the soil and water pose a health risk. But city officials say what you’re hearing isn’t entirely true. Environmentalists and city officials are reacting to CORR’s claims that the soil and drinking water nearby a facility in Martins Ferry isn’t safe. “The citizens again are at risk,” said Dr. Yuri Gorby, a microbiologist.“We are certainly concerned by some of the issues that they raise,” said Paul Stecker, law director for the city.The Ohio Valley Group CORR said they discovered extremely high levels of radiation along North 1st Street, and claim it’s especially worse near the Austin Masters facility. The group says just breathing that in can be dangerous. “If you inhale it and that gets into your lungs, in about 3 weeks, those particulates can be dissolved and be distributed throughout your body,” said Gorby.CORR fears the high levels of radiation in the soil might even contaminate the nearby drinking water. But city officials argue otherwise. “As far as our water goes, we know that that is safe,” said Stecker. The city officials say the water is regularly tested. But as far as the CORR’s other concerns go, city officials are turning to the Ohio EPA and the ODNR for guidance. “We’re working with the experts to determine if there’s experts’ [opinions] we should be taking or not taking.” Meanwhile, CORR and other environmentalists push for something to be done. Martins Ferry Mayor John Davies had no comment on this matter.
Court says FERC can consider gas exports for some pipelines - A three-judge panel cleared the way Friday for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to look at planned natural gas exports to justify condemning land to build certain interstate projects. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled that FERC did not violate constitutional protections for property owners or the Natural Gas Act when it granted a certificate for the 256-mile Nexus Gas Transmission pipeline from Ohio to Michigan. The decision came after the D.C. Circuit had previously ordered FERC to explain why it was legal to include export precedent agreements in its analysis of the domestic public need for the project. A portion of the operational pipeline’s gas is sent across the northern border to the Enbridge Gas Dawn Hub in southwestern Ontario, Canada. “FERC could lawfully consider the export precedent agreements because an assessment of the public convenience and necessity requires a consideration of all the factors that might bear on the public interest,” said Judge Neomi Rao, writing the opinion for the court. Rao, a Trump pick, noted that the part of the Natural Gas Act governing the process for approving the construction of natural pipelines — Section 7 — did not include any prohibition on considering export precedent agreements in its analysis. Carolyn Elefant, a private attorney representing officials in Oberlin, Ohio, who challenged the construction of the now-operational pipeline, said the court’s ruling “effectively gutted” the D.C. Circuit’s original ruling in the case in 2019 that had required FERC to explain its reasoning for approving the pipeline. “Nevertheless, we are optimistic that the court’s ruling will be limited going forward,” Elefant said in an email. For example, the court explicitly stated the ruling would not apply to pipelines feeding liquefied natural gas export terminals or pipelines that cross international borders, where all of the natural gas is destined for foreign markets, she said. The Nexus pipeline differs from those projects because, while a portion of its gas is transported to Canada, the pipeline itself is entirely within the United States and much of the gas is also used domestically. Senior Judge David Sentelle, a Reagan appointee, declined to join Rao and Judge Judith Rogers, a Clinton pick, in their ruling that FERC had not violated the Constitution’s Takings Clause, requiring just compensation to property owners when their land is taken for public use. Instead, Sentelle only agreed with FERC’s alternative explanation that the commission could have approved the pipeline even without counting export agreements. Sentelle’s position in the case weakens the effect of the ruling, Elefant said. “Finally, in light of the recent spate of pipeline cancellations due to changes in project need coupled with the Commission’s ongoing revisions to the Certificate Policy Statement,” she said, “we are hopeful that the Commission will take a more deliberative and robust review of proposed pipelines.”
DC Circuit Rules NEXUS Pipeline Approval by FERC was Righteous - Marcellus Drilling News - Last year Big Green lobbyists using the City of Oberlin, Ohio contested the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) decision to approve the Enbridge/DTE Energy NEXUS pipeline, a $2 billion, 255-mile pipeline from the Ohio Utica Shale into Michigan that’s been flowing for years connecting to a pipeline that exports some of the gas into Canada (see Oberlin, OH Still Fighting to Shut Down Long-Running NEXUS Pipe). Big Green/Oberlin claimed FERC’s approval of NEXUS was faulty because some gas gets exported to Canada and is not “in the public interest.” A federal court ruled last week against Oberlin, siding with FERC’s decision to approve the NEXUS project.
Ascent Resources Buys Another 27K Utica Acres for $270 Million - Marcellus Drilling News - Ascent Resources, originally founded as American Energy Partners by gas legend Aubrey McClendon, is a privately-held company that focuses 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and the 8th largest natural gas producer in the U.S. There have been plenty of rumors swirling about Ascent, one that says Gulfport Energy is interested in selling to Ascent (see Rumor: Gulfport Energy in Talks to Merge with Ascent Resources) and another that the company is close to launching an IPO (see Ohio’s Largest Shale Driller, Ascent Resources, Preps for IPO). Here’s something that’s not a rumor: The company is buying another 26,800 acres in the Ohio Utica for $270 million.
St. Louis-based Spire Buying 'Responsible' Utica Gas from Ascent - Marcellus Drilling News - In 2016 Laclede Group (later renamed to Spire), a St. Louis-based natural gas utility, said it planned to build a 65-mile pipeline from St. Louis through southwest Illinois and connect to the Rockies Express (REX) and Panhandle Eastern Pipeline (see New Midwest Pipeline to Tap REX’s Marcellus/Utica Gas). The new pipeline was designed to flow low-cost Marcellus and Utica Shale gas from REX to the utility–not only for resale to gas customers, but also potentially for new natgas-powered electric plants. That pipeline, Spire STL, went online in late 2019 (see Spire Pipeline Ready to Flow Marcellus/Utica Gas to St. Louis). Another Spire subsidiary, Spire Marketing, has just brokered a deal with Ascent Resources to buy Ascent’s RSG (certified “responsibly sourced gas”) from the Ohio Utica to flow through Spire STL for resale to Spire’s customers.
Gas line break reported Monday - Personnel from various agencies responded Monday morning after someone called 911 shortly before 11:15 a.m. to report that they had been mowing and had hit a gas line at a location on state Route 374 in the Rockbridge area. According to dispatch records provided by the Hocking County Emergency Management Agency, responding agencies included EMA, Logan Fire Department, Good Hope Volunteer Fire Department, Laurelville Volunteer Fire Department, the Ohio Department of Transportation, and Hocking County EMS. Columbia Gas was informed, and first responders turned the scene over to the gas company around 2:27 p.m.
As Shell's ethane cracker nears startup, people are surveying the Ohio River for plastic nurdles – NPR -Shell plans to begin operations this summer at its new industrial complex along the Ohio River in Beaver County, Pennsylvania. The plant will use ethane produced at the region’s natural gas wells to make tiny polyethylene plastic pellets, which some people call nurdles. They’re used to make many kinds of plastic products. But nurdles can also end up in waterways, which is why environmental groups, working with local researchers, have started searching for nurdles in the water near the plant. They’re trying to establish a baseline of what’s in the Ohio now, and will continue to survey the river after the plant opens, so they can tell if nurdles from the plant are getting into the riversCaptain Evan Clark says he’s pulled out more than a million pounds of trash from Pittsburgh’s rivers over the past 15 years with Allegheny Cleanways, and millions more pounds along the shorelines. He’s amazed at how much of it is plastic. Now, Clark is with the Three Rivers Waterkeeper and regularly leads cleanup groups.“For our volunteers, the eye-opening experience of seeing that such a massive percent of what we pull out of the river is plastics is really eye-opening and educational,” Clark said, standing behind the wheel of the group’s boat. They find things like the plastic film that covers cigarette packs, fleece clothing, grocery store bags, and soda bottles. Clark pulls to the side of the Ohio River, at the boat launch in Monaca, a few miles upriver from Shell’s ethane cracker. Eric Harder, the Youghiogheny Riverkeeper with the Mountain Watershed Association, is among a few others waiting to get on board. “Most people do not know what a nurdle was when I first would tell them about it,” Harder said. Nurdles are the size of a lentil. They’re the raw material used by manufacturers to make other plastic products. It takes more than 350 nurdles for one yogurt cup, and over a thousand nurdles to make a soda bottle. When Shell’s multi-billion dollar ethane cracker opens, it will produce 1.6 million metric tons of plastic pellets a year. “Most people, I tell them that the cracker plant looks like an engineering masterpiece, and it does look amazing, like someone took a long time to design it all,” Harder said. “But it does, you know, make plastics.” When those trillions of tiny plastic bits are transferred onto trains and trucks, they can spill. This has happened in places like Texas and Louisiana, wherenurdles wind up in waterways and on shorelines. “With the nurdles, it’s really important to understand how much of the product might be slipping into our river systems,” said Heather Hulton VanTassel, executive director of Three Rivers Waterkeeper, who is also on the boat. Fish and birds can ingest these microplastics. Researchers have found that other pollutants bind to them in the water. The environmental groups are collecting nurdles now, to build a baseline of plastics in the river, so they can tell if there are any spills from the cracker plant after it opens.
Methane goes from foe to feedstock for PHB production at new Ohio facility | Plastics News - Newlight Technologies Inc. will use captured methane emissions to produce its Aircarbon bio-based material in a 15-year agreement with CNX Resources Corp. at a Hannibal, Ohio, facility.
37 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jul 4-10 | Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of July 4-10, the three Marcellus/Utica states issued 37 permits to drill new shale wells. Pennsylvania led the way, as it typically does, by issuing 25 new permits. Three PA drillers tied with six permits each, all six (in each case) on the same pad: Olympus Energy in Allegheny County, Repsol in Bradford County, and Clean Energy Exploration in Tioga County. Ohio issued five new permits, with four going to Encino Energy for a single pad in Carroll County. West Virginia issued seven new permits, all of them to Antero Resources in Doddridge County but spread across three pads.
Expanding dirty hydrogen in Pennsylvania would be a dangerous mistake | Opinion – PennLive -- No matter the color of our skin or the amount of money we make, we all deserve a future where our communities can thrive, where our children are healthy, and where the land, air, and water we depend on are clean, safe, and beautiful. Unfortunately, Gov. Tom Wolf’s announcement to pursue a regional hydrogen hub in Pennsylvania, a move backed by the fossil fuel industries that put us in the mess we’re currently in, stands in the way of that future.This effort feels like 2012 all over again, when the oil and gas industry claimed that ethane cracker plants would be a silver bullet solution to reinvigorate struggling economies in coalfield communities like ours across Washington County. Competing to attract Shell, Pennsylvania lawmakers enabled the largest-ever subsidy in state history - a tax break valued at $1.65 billion. A decade later, the plant’s home of Beaver County – where Shell promised an economic boom and thousands of new jobs at a plant that has yet to come online – still has boarded up businesses on Main Street, and residents unable to stay and raise their families.Research by the Ohio River Valley Institute shows that since construction on the project began, Beaver County has lost population and jobs.The parallels between the cracker plant and the newly proposed hydrogen hub are disturbing. We can’t be fooled yet again by the same oil and gas billionaires who claim they have our best interests at heart, when they’ve already shown us that their only loyalty is to their pocketbooks.A hydrogen hub that derives hydrogen fuel from natural gas is not a “clean energy solution,” as Gov. Wolf has called it. Instead, since hydrogen in the Marcellus Shale region would be derived from natural gas, a hub would perpetuate the fracking economy. More drilling. More dangerous chemicals that can spill and make us sick, give our kids asthma, or even cause cancer.Supporters also claim the climate-warming carbon byproduct of the process would be captured, transported in pipelines, and stored long-term underground. Carbon capture technology has been around for a long time, and has already shown to be ineffective and uneconomical. Pipelines to transport captured carbon are extremely volatile and can explode. And they have. And underground storage is an awful idea. It can leak and poison our water supply. This is supposed to be our “clean energy” solution? This is not the clean energy future I want for my kids.Last year’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law made $8 billion available for regional hydrogen hubs. Now states, including Pennsylvania, are chomping at the bit to get their piece of the pie, and sweeten the deal for oil and gas companies. There are already proposals in Harrisburg. Yet the total cost of a hydrogen hub and widespread carbon capture and pipeline buildout would cost many billions of dollars more than what’s available in federal funds. Will it fall on the taxpayers to cover the rest, just like it did with Shell’s ethane cracker? You bet it will.
Appalachian Pure-Play Olympus Certifies All Natural Gas, Midstream Operations - Olympus Energy LLC has become the latest exploration and production (E&P) firm to claim the distinction of producing 100% certified natural gas after an analysis by Project Canary. Pittsburgh independent Olympus operates around 100,000 net acres with more than 10 producing wells in Marcellus, Utica and Upper Devonian plays of southwestern Pennsylvania. Olympus COO Mike Wahl told NGI the certification “adds approximately 140,000 MMcf/d” of certified natural gas to the market. The E&P expects that figure to grow as new production is evaluated by the certification process.Denver-based assessment company Project Canary gave Olympus platinum ratings, which is a designation that its sustainability goals are higher than 90% of comparable companies. Project Canary reported Olympus operations achieved the highest marks for environmental stewardship, including methane intensity, emissions reduction and water recycling. In late 2021, Olympus announced it planned to become the first integrated E&P to complete both upstream and midstream certification. Project Canary reported that the review of Olympus subsidiary Hyperion Midstream LLC began this month.* Project Canary’s assessments also score firms on emergency response, community engagement and well integrity. Continuous monitoring units were installed on each of the Olympus producing well pads and at Hyperion’s pipeline facilities during the review. Project Canary CEO Chris Romer said Olympus’ move to certify all operations represents the market demand for gas with differentiated low-carbon profiles. The process also improves environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals.“Major domestic and international utilities are seeking the premium certified responsibly sourced gas producers like Olympus are offering,” Romer said. “Net-zero requires solutions for low-methane verified environmental attributes and freshwater use, among other ESG markers.”
Washington set to be 2nd East Coast city with gas ban - Washington, D.C., is expected to become the second East Coast city to ban fossil fuel boilers and water heaters in most new buildings, following the unanimous approval of two bills by the City Council this week that are supported by the mayor. When the bills are enacted, the nation’s capital would join New York City in instituting a ban on most fossil fuel heat — an idea that has also spread to several dozen West Coast municipalities and, in a more limited way, across Washington state (Energywire, May 3). Mary Cheh, a D.C. councilmember and Democratic lead sponsor of both bills, called climate change “the single most important environmental issue of our time.” She said the legislation would serve as a blueprint for the district’s climate action, particularly since buildings account for about three-quarters of the district’s emissions. “The technology is there to do this; this bill puts us on a path toward getting it done,” said Cheh in a statement. One of the Washington bills, known as the “Clean Energy DC Building Code Amendment Act,” would prohibit the use of fossil fuels for space and water heat in new commercial buildings — a category that includes residences four stories and up — starting in 2027. By that same year, those buildings would need to be considered “net-zero energy,” meaning they would have to produce or conserve more energy on-site from solar panels or other sources than they consume. The measure would exempt buildings deemed “essential to protecting public health and safety,” which could use fossil fuel for backup power generation. Unlike in some gas-ban cities, however, D.C.’s measure would also include gas stoves, meaning restaurants and residents would have to use electric induction instead of cooking over an open flame. And if a building owner were to carry out “substantial improvements,” or deep retrofits, the energy requirements would kick in. A second bill, called the “Climate Commitment Act,” contains a similar ban on fossil fuel heat for new district-owned buildings, such as schools, starting in 2025. Its provisions would also look beyond the buildings sector. By 2026, all vehicles bought or leased by the district would have to be zero-emissions models, while all of the district’s operations would need to be carbon-free by 2040. Five years later, the entire city would have to go carbon-neutral, with a 60 percent cut in greenhouse gas emissions arriving in 2030, compared with 2005 levels.
Charlotte smelt it. Who dealt it? City left with stink after company’s tank mistake - The strong and foul natural-gas smell that stunk up parts of Charlotte on Thursday morning can be traced to a mistake after an environmental cleanup company destroyed tanks that contained a harmless gas odorant, Piedmont Natural Gas said. A weather event known as a temperature inversion likely spread the stench, city officials said. The odor was expected to dissipate throughout the day,Charlotte-Mecklenburg Emergency Management said in a tweet at 11:22 a.m.The company was destroying mercaptan tanks that were mistakenly reported empty, Piedmont said in a news release. The Charlotte Fire Department said four storage tanks were involved.The leak happened at a site on North Graham Street near uptown, Piedmont spokesman Jason Wheatley told The Charlotte Observer. The utility did not hire the company nor use any of its assets or resources, he said.Wheatley referred other questions to Legacy Environmental Services for comment. A Charlotte spokesman for the company could not be reached by the Observer on Thursday afternoon.Piedmont uses mercaptan, also is known as methanethiol, to give natural gas “a distinctive smell of rotten eggs,” the utility said. Natural gas has no smell. The gas additive also is used to give a scent to pesticides, jet fuels and plastics, according to the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry.Mercaptan does not pose a danger or require evacuation, Piedmont said. The utility said it is bringing crews in from across the Carolinas to respond to all emergency calls to verify that a natural gas leak is not present. The Environmental Protection Agency has been notified about the leak, according to Charlotte Fire.
U.S. natgas jumps 7% as heat wave boosts air conditioning use (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% to a one-week high on Monday as power generators burned more of the fuel to keep air conditioners humming during a brutal heat wave that has boosted electric demand to record highs in several parts of the country. Texas's power grid operator warned of potential rolling blackouts amid predictions demand would hit all-time highs on Monday and Tuesday as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the extreme heat. Power demand also broke records in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and in several parts of the U.S. Southeast over the past week. "Supply concerns as a result of high coal to gas fuel switching continue to be the driving force behind the current market’s rally," analysts at Gelber & Associates said in a note. U.S. coal was trading at record highs, making it uneconomical for electric companies to switch from gas to coal for power generation. The jump in gas prices came despite an increase in U.S. gas output to record highs and forecasts for lower gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. In what has been an extremely volatile couple of months, front-month gas futures rose 39.2 cents, or 6.5%, to settle at $6.426 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their higher close since June 29. So far this year, the front-month was up about 72% as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears Moscow would cut gas supplies to Europe. Gas was trading around $48 per mmBtu in Europe and $39 in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 96.2 bcfd so far in July from 95.3 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand including exports would rise from 97.9 bcfd this week to 98.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid to 11.1 bcfd so far in July from 11.2 bcfd in June. That was down from 12.5 bcfd in May and a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March due to the Freeport outage.
U.S. natgas futures fall 4% on oil price plunge - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% on Tuesday as the gas market followed an 8% drop in oil prices. That gas price decline came even though daily gas output dropped and amid forecasts for hotter weather and more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The heat has already boosted power demand in several parts of the country to record levels, including in Texas, and caused generators to burn more gas to produce electricity to keep air conditioners humming. Also weighing on gas prices, traders noted the ongoing outage at Freeport LNG's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas has left more gas in the United States for utilities to refill low stockpiles for the winter. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Freeport LNG has said the facility could return by October. Some analysts, however, think the plant could remain shut for a longer period. After weeks of rising volatility, front-month gas futures for August delivery fell 26.3 cents, or 4.1%, to settle at $6.163 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Earlier in the session, gas futures were up almost 6%. Gas market close-to-close volatility over the past 30 days rose to its highest since March. Volatility hit a record high in February. Oil futures were down on a stronger U.S. dollar and a weaker demand outlook. The premium of gas futures for August over September NGQ22-U22 rose to a record high for a third day in a row. So far this year, the front-month is up about 66% as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears Moscow would cut gas supplies to Europe. Gas was trading around $51 per mmBtu in Europe and $39 in Asia. Russian gas exports on the three main lines into Germany - Nord Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route dropped from an average of 3.7 bcfd since mid-June to just 1.6 bcfd on Monday with the shutdown of Nord Stream for maintenance. That is down from around 6.5 bcfd in early June and an average of 9.4 bcfd in July 2021. The group operating Nord Stream said the pipe should return around July 21. Analysts, however, the outage could last longer.
Demand for natural gas for electricity generation breaks the historic record - Gas deliveries for the electricity sector reached 803,8 GWh yesterday, surpassing the records of 770 GWh and 764 GWh reached on June 16 and 15, respectively This new record is due to the effects of high temperatures, which lead to an increase in electricity consumption, coupled with low hydro, wind, photovoltaic and solar thermal generation owing to the haze, as well as the increase in electrical exports Yesterday, July 13, demand for natural gas to produce electricity reached 803,8 GWh, surpassing the record of 770 GWh reached on June 16 and the 764 Gwh recorded on June 15. This huge increase in the demand for natural gas for electricity production has been mainly due to the high temperatures recorded as a result of the heat wave, which results in an increase in electricity consumption, accompanied by low hydro, wind and also photovoltaic and solar thermal generation (due to the haze), as well as an increase in electrical exports. This new consecutive increase in demand for electricity generation highlights the coordination of the electricity and gas systems to guarantee supply in a context of energy transition, and the important role played by natural gas as a back-up for renewable energies at times of record demand.Today’s natural gas demand forecast for electricity generation is lower than yesterday’s due to an increase in wind power generation and lower electricity exports.
US working natural gas in underground storage increases by 58 Bcf: EIA | S&P Global Commodity Insights - US natural gas working stocks rose 58 Bcf during the week ended July 8, slightly below market expectations, after ongoing heat wave conditions in Texas and the Southeast kicked gas-fired power demand into high gear. Storage inventories climbed to 2.369 Tcf for the week ended July 8, the US Energy Information Administration reported on July 14. The build was less than an S&P Global Commodity Insights' survey of analysts calling for a 61 Bcf injection, although around the midpoint of a response range of 38-77 Bcf. While a touch below expectations, the weekly injection was more than the 49 Bcf build reported during the corresponding week in 2021 as well as the five-year average injection of 55 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, stocks sat 252 Bcf, or 9.6%, below the year-ago level of 2.621 Tcf and 319 Bcf, or 11.9%, less than the five-year average of 2.688 Tcf. US natural gas futures had a mixed reaction to the July 14 storage report, with the NYMEX Henry Hub August contract moving both above and below its prior-day settlement in post-report trading.In the 30 minutes before the report launched, the August contract was trading around $6.75/MMBtu, up around 6 cents from its July 13 settle. In the minutes after the weekly storage report published, the contract fell a few cents to trade around $6.72/MMBtu, before both hurtling up past $6.80/MMBtu and back into the $6.50s/MMBtu in the hours after.The August contract eventually settled at $6.60/MMBtu, down 8.90 cents from its prior settlement, data from CME Group shows. uly has brought scorching temperatures to Texas and the Southeast, spiking gas demand for cooling and reducing gas flows into storage. Month-to-date gas-fired power demand for the two regions has averaged 21.73 Bcf, up 4.6 Bcf, or 27%, from the same time last year. In Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas saw multiple days of peakload record-highs, including July 5 and July 8.This unusually strong call on gas supply has showed up in the weekly storage results for the South Central region, where gas stored in salt caverns saw a net withdrawal of 12 Bcf for the week ended July 8. This pull expanded South Central salt storage's deficit to the five-year average to 24.3%.The net withdrawal from the region's salt-based storage balanced out a 12 Bcf injection into non-salt storage in the South Region, keeping the overall region's storage levels steady at 890 Bcf for a second week in a row.Net withdrawals or unchanged storage levels during injection season are not unheard of in the South Central region, where hot summers often provide high-demand conditions. However, these conditions are more typical of late July and August. The South Central region's typical storage outcome for the week ended July 8 is a net build of 4 Bcf. A forecast by S&P Global's supply and demand model calls for a much lesser draw of 25 Bcf for the week ending July 15, which would widen the deficit to the five-year average back out to 12.3%. A net build of 25 Bcf would be lower than both the five-year average build of 41 Bcf and the corresponding week in 2021's build of 50 Bcf.The same heat wave conditions that elevated gas demand during the week ended July 8 intensified during the week ending July 15, with even higher gas-fired power demand observed.
NYMEX gas futures rebound amid summer heat, near-term technical trading NYMEX front-month natural gas futures saw some upside movement ahead of the weekend, rising 41.6 cents to settle at $7.016/MMBtu on July 15. The strength came mainly from record hot temperatures across large portions of the US, which is forecast to continue through the balance of July. Near-term technically oversold conditions following the previous day's price weakness also contributed. The supply/demand fundamentals are closing the work week rather quietly, with production levels rebounding toward 96 Bcf/d, following a low 94.53 Bcf/d that occurred earlier in the week, thanks to pipeline operational and maintenance issues. Last weekend, dry gas volumes were knocking on the door of 97 Bcf/d. US imports from Canada have declined to around 6 Bcf/d amid hot July temperatures north of the US border. LNG export demand offers a small bright spot as feedgas levels approached 11.5 Bcf/d late during the week. The modest uptick has been aided by Sabine Pass feedgas levels topping 4.5 Bcf/d, while Calcasieu Pass feedgas volumes remain well above 1.5 Bcf/d. On the weather front, the next two weeks are set to bring mercury levels solidly above the five-year average. The week's trading activity in NYMEX gas futures stemmed from a bearish weekly natural gas storage report, as the Energy Information Administration reported, which stopped a rally in NYMEX gas futures in its tracks. The NYMEX August gas contract failed to see follow-through buying after advancing as high as $6.898/MMBtu after the weekly storage report was released. The EIA showed that working gas inventory levels increased 58 Bcf for the week ended July 8, which was 3 Bcf more than the five-year average as the deficit to that benchmark declined to 319 Bcf. Despite a sweltering summer (relative to the longer-term averages), the EIA data reveals that inventory procurements in the last several weeks have outpaced or been at least equal to the five-year period during five of the previous six weeks. Due to torrid heat across the Lone Star State during the reflective storage week, the Southcentral region was the most bullish contributor to the EIA report, with a 0 Bcf build, which was 4 Bcf less than the five-year average of a 4 Bcf injection. At the same time, the cooler Pacific region mitigated the storage data with a 9 Bcf injection, which was 5 Bcf bearish versus its regional five-year average. The Midwest, Mountain, and East all featured relatively neutral injections, which were close to their respective averages. With less than two weeks to go before the NYMEX August gas futures contract expires, the NYMEX September contract is trading at a discount to August as the seasonal temperature calendar typically begins to moderate for many northern tier areas of the US during August. At the end of July 15, the NYMEX September contract settled at $6.926/MMBtu, up 41.5 cents on the day. Similarly, the October contract settled at $6.917/MMBtu on the day.
Ample Summer Heat Spurs Broad Gains for Natural Gas Forwards - A sweltering summer temperature outlook overshadowed ongoing demand destruction from the Freeport LNG terminal outage to send natural gas forwards prices soaring during the July 7-13 trading period, NGI’s Forward Look data show.Fixed price trading for August delivery at benchmark Henry Hub surged $1.179 higher week/week to $6.690/MMBtu. That established the baseline for fixed price gains of $1-plus at most Lower 48 hubs during the period.Based on the latest forecasts Thursday, the back half of July was set to bring “strong to very strong national demand” as a result of widespread summer heat, according to NatGasWeather.Between Saturday and July 27, “unseasonably hot upper high pressure rules most of the U.S. with highs of 90s and 100s besides the far North,” the firm said. “To our view, the weather data can’t be much hotter” during this time frame, implying risks for subsequent model runs to ease back on demand expectations. The impact of the toasty temperatures was particularly evident in the Southeast, where a number of hubs saw even steeper markups, resulting in hefty basis gains week/week.Transco Zone 4 August front-month basis surged to plus-$3.753, a $1.547 swing higher for the period. Basis at Florida Gas Zone 3 similarly jumped $1.652 for the period to finish at a $4.074 premium to the national benchmark.August Nymex futures settled at $6.600 Thursday, off 8.9 cents on the day but up sharply from prices in the mid-$5.00 range just over a week earlier.The July 7-13 trading period included a major bullish storage report miss from the Energy Information Administration’s inventory data for the week ended July 1. That sparked a sizable rally for Nymex futures, a major contributor to the step-change higher in the natural gas forwards market.Coming off a pair of larger-than-expected prints, the lean injection figure that landed on trading desks on July 7 forced a reassessment of what had seemed a significant loosening of the supply/demand balance following the unexpected outage at the 2.0 Bcf/d Freeport liquefied natural gas terminal. August Nymex prices rallied 78.7 cents on the day as bulls regained the momentum.By contrast, the most recent EIA report Thursday, covering the week ended July 8, landed close to pre-report expectations. EIA reported a 58 Bcf injection for the period.The print “suggested last week’s bullish EIA miss was a one-off number and the balance is in fact a little looser than it showed,” NatGasWeather said.
South Central gas storage braces for early start to summer withdrawals - The US South Central storage region could see an early start to mid-summer withdrawals this month as strong power burns and record price premiums east of Henry Hub keep spot gas supply in high demand. For the week ending July 8, Platts Analytics is projecting a net withdrawal from South Central gas storage in the range of 7-10 Bcf, potentially reducing inventory levels there to as low as 880 Bcf. A drawdown at the higher end of that range would expand the region's storage deficit to nearly 150 Bcf below average, or it widest since early April, data from the US Energy Information Administration shows.The projected drawdown to stocks comes ahead of the South Central region's historic mid-July start to the withdrawal season when its salt dome inventories are typically called upon to meet peak-summer gas demand from power generators, and more recently, from the region's LNG export terminals.This summer, though, record demand and surging basis premiums pose an outsized risk of larger drawdowns that could potentially jeopardize the region's pre-winter inventory build.Strong gas demand in the South Central storage region is likely coming mostly major consumer markets concentrated along the Gulf Coast – including coastal Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Home to five of the US' seven operational LNG export terminals, the Gulf Coast market accounts for about 90% of US feedgas demand. Refineries, petrochemical plants, equipment manufacturers, and other heavy industry along the Gulf Coast also make the region a major industrial gas consumer.While demand from both sectors is higher this summer, the largest annual increase in gas demand this season appears to be coming from power generators. In the US Southeast – which includes East Coast states outside of the South Central region, like Florida, Georgia and the Carolina – gas-fired power demand is up nearly 2.5 Bcf/d summer-over-summer to trend at an average 13.8 Bcf/d from June 1 to date, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights shows.Along with a roughly 2.3 Bcf/d increase in LNG exports and a combined 400 MMcf/d increase in residential-commercial and industrial consumption this summer, demand in the Southeast is now outpacing supply at some downstream locations, fueling previously unseen price premiums. At Transco Zone 3, cash prices surged in July 11 trading to settle at $11.79/MMBtu, or a more-than-$5 premium to Henry Hub. Similar prices at Transco Zone 4 pushed that location's basis premium to the mid-$4 range on July 11. At Florida Gas Zone 3 – among the most premium Gulf Coast hub locations – the cash market has consistently traded in the $9-12 range over the past week, Platts data shows. With strong seasonal gas demand likely to continue across the Gulf Coast in August and September, forward gas markets are already pricing-in steep premiums over the balance of summer.
Spa Creek, Annapolis Diesel Fuel Spill – WNAV --At around 6:45 pm this evening, a large diesel fuel spill occurred south of Acton Cove in Spa Creek. The Annapolis Fire Department has responded to the incident. The U.S. Coast Guard and the Maryland Department of Environment (MDE) are currently working on the recovery of the fuel product in the water. Clean-up operations are expected to continue for another couple of hours. Due to the nature of the incident, residents in the surrounding area will likely continue to smell fuel odors throughout the night. The Annapolis Fire Department asks that people avoid the area while recovery operations are underway.
Colonial Pipeline valve fails, spilling 24,000 gallons of gas in Loudon Co., cleanup underway - First responders were dispatched to a liquid gas leak at the Colonial Pipeline in Loudon County on July 4, according to officials.
Clean up of ruptured pipeline in Loudon ongoing -A valve on a gasoline pipeline operated by Colonial Pipeline Co., ruptured Monday near Sugarlimb Road, later leading to the damage of a natural gas line running through the same area.The original leak was reported in the 9900 block of Sugarlimb about 9 p.m. Monday by a resident who smelled gasoline, Meredith Stone, public information officer for Colonial, said.The leaking valve was repaired within 24 hours and the gas line resumed normal operation, she said.Workers for Colonial struck an unmarked natural gas line nearby Wednesday, Stone said. “We believe the leak is contained and our concern is that the gas does not reach the river,” Stone said. She said she did not know what company operates the natural gas line.
Loudon County Colonial Pipeline spill spreads further than expected (WVLT) - Officials with Colonial Pipeline said Tuesday they had discovered spilled material outside of their Sugarlimb Trap Facility.The Colonial Pipeline workers found the extended spill Monday night. According to a release from the company, officials “detected product approximately 8 feet outside the fence of its Sugarlimb Trap Facility.”The original spill happened on July 4 when a valve on the pipeline failed. Officials were able to repair the pipe and get it functioning again, but are still working on cleanup.“Colonial employees and contractors are on site working 24 hours a day to recover product and implementing proactive measures in an effort to protect Hubbard Branch and the Tennessee River,” Tuesday’s update said. “No product has been detected in surface water.” The company is currently working with the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency, Loudon County Emergency Management Agency and other groups to clean up the spill.
Spire criticized for destroying documents about controversial St. Louis pipeline — Spire is facing more scrutiny over its controversial natural gas pipeline after the utility destroyed documents related to the project’s bidding process. The move drew fresh criticism from Missouri utility regulators, who also said Spire's process to procure fuel lacked transparency, and that the St. Louis-based utility did not select the cheapest option when it chose to buy from its own affiliate. The Spire STL Pipeline has been ensnared in legal trouble for the past year after failing to properly demonstrate it was needed. Some consumer advocates called the destruction of the proposals “suspicious” and perhaps unprecedented. John Coffman, an attorney for the Consumers Council of Missouri who monitors utility issues, said he had never heard of a utility destroying proposals before. “They have to show that it’s cheaper,” Coffman said. “We don’t know what the fair market value is because they destroyed the evidence.” Spire, though, says the destruction of documents was driven by the terms of confidentiality agreements reached with other companies, and noted that pertinent information was eventually provided to regulators. Moreover, the utility pointed to an accompanying report that found the company acted in a “reasonable and prudent” way in its decision-making surrounding the pipeline. Spire’s 65-mile pipeline stretches north from St. Louis County and connects in Illinois to another interstate gas line. It started running in late 2019, but over the past year, the pipeline has been dealt multiple courtroom losses after a unanimous panel of federal judges said that a need for the project was never adequately demonstrated and outlined “plausible evidence of self-dealing” by Spire. The utility has also been blasted for some of its conduct since the pipeline’s completion, particularly for its messaging late last year, when Spire was widely accused of fearmongering about the project’s uncertain future.
12 years later, BP still fighting hundreds of lawsuits over Deepwater Horizon spill - BP has spent billions of dollars since the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, yet 12 years after the disaster, new lawsuits continue to pop up. And it could be a while before they are resolved, according to lawyers involved in the cases. “These cases take a while,” said Elsa De Lima, a Miami-based lawyer who was in Mobile Friday to talk to clients and other who believe they have claims. “You know, I get the question all the time. ‘How are you still litigating this case? This happened all the way in 2010.’” The reason, De Lima said, is that the current round of litigation involves cancer and other diseases that take years to show up. And, she added, it takes a long time to gather evidence and build cases. A wave of suits reached the federal court in Mobile in 2018 and 2019 after a judge ruled that thousands of people were not covered by a medical settlement negotiated after the oil spill. Under the ruling, people must file individual lawsuits. And they have continued to trickle in, including eight in Mobile just since the beginning of the year. Foley resident Richard Becht worked for months as part of the “Vessels of Opportunity” program, which paid people to use their own boats to help clean up the Deepwater Horizon spill that flooded waterways along the Gulf Coast with oil. He said he was working as a subtractor on a dolphin cruise boat. “I worked from the time it started ‘til the time it ended,” he told FOX10 News. Becht, who owns a marine electronics business in Gulf Shores, said he later was diagnosed with prostate cancer. “I didn’t think a lot about it,” he said. “At my age, that was sort of normal. And I was able to get that taken care of through surgery.” About three years ago, though, Becht said he developed another, more virulent form of cancer – acute myeloid leukemia. He said his doctor told him it was not connected to the prostate cancer. With no cancer history on either side of his family, he said he was puzzled. Then Becht saw a lawyer ad on TV that got him to think about his cleanup work. He said he now believes his cancer is connected to the chemicals used to break up the oil in the water. “That’s the only answer I can find, is that I had to be impacted by the benzene in the dispersant,” he said.
As peak hurricane season looms, banks bolster cozy relationship with fossil fuel industry - Over the past several decades, the oil and gas industry promised to bring economic prosperity to the Gulf Coast. Instead, it brought financial instability and increasing climate disasters, and forced local communities to pay the price. As a result of the fossil fuel industry’s pollution, people living in the Gulf Coast face a growing number of climate-driven natural disasters like hurricanes and flooding.As the peak of yet another hurricane season looms, it prompts us to once again ask the questions: Is the oil and gas industry set up to handle the increasing rate and severity of these events? And why do fossil fuel giants and their friends on Wall Street continue to pour money into fracked gas?The fossil fuel industry’s role in climate change and its destructive presence in local communities is common knowledge for residents in the Gulf. But little is known about the other actors quietly bankrolling the fossil fuel industry, without ever being taken to task for their role—the banks that keep the cash flowing to the oil and gas companies making the most devastating impact in the Gulf. But the tide is turning, with activists and investors beginning to pressure big U.S. banks to address their role in the climate crisis.The six largest U.S. banks – JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs – are some of the biggest fossil fuel financiers in the world, pouring $44 billion into the top fracked gas (also called liquefied natural gas or LNG) import and export companies in the last 6 years alone.The worst among them, Morgan Stanley, is the world’s largest banker of LNG companies. That includes here in Louisiana, where the bank helped finance the proposed Plaquemines LNG facility, which, if built, would become one of the largest fracked gas export terminals in the U.S.A report released last month on the potential impacts of the Plaquemines LNG facility –written by the same expert who identified structural flaws in New Orleans’ levees following Hurricane Katrina – showed the proposed 26-foot storm wall surrounding the facility will over-top with water during major storm surges.The facility’s proposed site sits barely 5 feet above sea level, in an area that flooded during Hurricane Ida and stayed flooded for weeks. Giant LNG projects like Plaquemines are clearly not prepared to handle the increasing rate and severity of climate-driven natural disasters. So why are banks putting billions into these risky investments?
US LNG Export Projects Ramp Up In Gap of Closed Freeport Site in Texas - Natural gas markets already are reacting to speculation that startup of the damaged Freeport liquefied natural gas export terminal in Texas, which accounts for 20% of American shipments and now about 10% to Europe, may be further delayed by federal regulators. The facility south of Galveston has been closed since a June 8 explosion and fire. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on July 11 said the outlook for U.S. LNG exports fell by 6% since the incident, with the agency now projecting an average of 10.9 billion cu ft exported per day, down from 11.9 billion foreseen last month. But the agency predicts output could rise to an average of 12.7 billion cu ft per day when Freeport returns to full service in 2023, if the projected date holds.Demand for U.S. feedgas has averaged around 12.17 billion cu ft per day this year up to July 13, 15.4% higher than the same period in 2021, says Platts Analytics, noting the added push from European markets squeezed by Russian gas supply cuts as a result of the Ukraine war.The European Union voted earlier this month to designate natural gas and nuclear power as “environmentally sustainable” in its energy transition, despite environmental advocates' opposition and a longer-term goal to more broadly adopt renewable sources. Freeport LNG said it expects to resume partial plant operation in early October and full production by the end of the year, but new federal conditions for reopening may delay that further, analysts speculate. The U.S. Transportation Dept.’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration on June 30 told the firm that, after a preliminary investigation, plant conditions require a proposed safety order with remedial actions. The company must hire an independent firm to evaluate LNG storage tank operations, control systems inspection and testing procedures and qualifications and training of certain workers.“Continued operations of the export facility without corrective measures may pose an integrity risk to public safety, property or the environment,” the agency said. The Woodlands, Texas-based fire safety and risk consultant IFO Group LLC has been hired to conduct a root cause failure analysis of the explosion, with a draft report set to be released to the agency and to Freeport LNG in coming weeks.The federal agency's preliminary review suggested that an isolated pressure safety valve created overpressure in 300 ft of vacuum insulated piping, it said. The piping burst and allowed LNG and methane to escape, which caused the explosion and fire. The ruptured pipe had been used to transfer LNG around the facility’s storage area and is located along a rack that supports additional piping, power cables and equipment, the agency said, noting that “much of the other piping in the area was also damaged and will require repairs or replacement before LNG transfer operations can recommence.” The explosion in a section that had been inspected several weeks earlier created a 450-ft-high fireball, according to a Bloomberg report of a filing it says was “briefly posted” July 11 on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission website. A subequet ENR website review found no such filing. The LNG export plant is within an ecologically sensitive area and near areas used by the public, the pipeline agency said. The U.S. Coast Guard issued an order that restricts all marine cargo operations until Freeport conducts a risk analysis on marine transfers.
Freeport LNG Terminal Explosion Sparked 450-Feet-High Fireball, Report Says - Freeport LNG's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal in Texas experienced an explosion last month that created a massive 450-feet-high fireball and had a section of pipe at the facility under inspection several weeks before the incident, according to Bloomberg.A new filing published on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's website sheds light on the accident at the second-largest US LNG export plant, which was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas before it shut on June 8.IFO Group LLC, a Texas-based fire & explosion, and risk management consultancy, is preparing a release of a report to Freeport and federal regulators by the end of this month about the events that unfolded before the explosion.Contractors performing maintenance work on a storage tank reported hearing unusual sounds the morning of the blast, according to the filing. Plant officials responded by conducting an inspection, but didn't observe any anomalies. The sounds were reported two days after an investigation into a nearby "pipe movement."The explosion happened along a 700-foot section of pipe where LNG had become trapped, causing pressure to build. The ensuing rupture released a cloud of gas that ignited. The fireball lasted for 5 to 7 seconds, while the fire burned for 30 minutes. Contractors with the firm Puffer-Sweiven performed routine tests in April on a pressure safety valve that's part of the same system of pipes that subsequently failed. The equipment passed inspection, but Freeport LNG is investigating if a related valve was left closed after the tests. -- BloombergBloomberg data shows the terminal impacts 20% of all US LNG exports, much of which has been designated to supply-stricken Europe. Freeport LNG has said the facility could reopen by October, but some analysts have pointed out that the facility could remain closed for much longer."The actual process (of reviews, repairs and approvals) will take longer than three months, and potentially take six to 12 months," said Alex Munton, director of global gas and LNG at consultants Rapidan Energy Group.The silver lining is low US stockpiles are being filled up as the export plant in Texas has left more natgas on the grid. This is bad news for Europe.
EIA Slashes 2H2022 Forecast for U.S. LNG Exports in Wake of Freeport Outage - U.S. LNG exports are now expected to drop to 10.5 Bcf/d in the second half of this year following the prolonged outage at the Freeport LNG terminal on the Texas coast, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in an updated forecast. The 10.5 Bcf/d estimate for liquefied natural gas exports in the second half of the year, included in the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook Tuesday, reflects a 14% drop from month-earlier projections. For full-year 2022, EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to average 10.9 Bcf/d before rising to 12.7 Bcf/d in 2023.The agency’s modeling assumes a return to full service at the 2.0 Bcf/d Freeport terminal by January 2023.“Strong natural gas demand and high LNG prices in Europe and Asia drove the continued growth in U.S. LNG exports in the first half of this year,” researchers said. “During the first five months of 2022, the United States exported 71% of its LNG to Europe, compared with an annual average of 34% last year.” Natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub averaged $6.07/MMBtu through the first six months of 2022, according to the latest STEO.“The average price increased in each month from January through May, when it reached $8.14 before declining to $7.70 in June,” researchers said.For the latest STEO, EIA modeled an average spot price of $5.97 at the national benchmark for the second half of 2022, with prices expected to average $4.76 for full-year 2023.Compared with 2021 levels, domestic natural gas consumption is set to increase 2.9 Bcf/d, or 3%, to 85.9 Bcf/d on average this year. Consumption will then ease lower to 85.4 Bcf/d in 2023, EIA projections show.The share of natural gas in the power stack is on track to hold flat at 37% this year, despite prices for U.S. power generators rising from $4.97 in 2021 to $6.35 in 2022, according to EIA’s forecasting.
US oil, gas producers join UN-backed methane emissions reporting program -A trio of natural gas producers have joined the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0 Initiative as methane emissions measurement and reporting takes deeper root in the US upstream energy sector, the companies said July 14.Pioneer Natural Resources, Devon Energy and ConocoPhillips will join 80 other oil and gas producing companies in OGMP 2.0, a reporting program aimed at making methane emissions more transparent in the global oil and gas sector. The companies' participation in the predominantly European OGMP program speaks to growing support for decarbonization among US oil and gas companies that have thus far lagged European peers in setting hard-and-fast climate commitments."With Pioneer, Devon and ConocoPhillips joining OGMP 2.0, we have significantly increased the participation of U.S.-based companies," OGMP 2.0 manager Giulia Ferrini said. "We hope their membership encourages others to join this global effort aimed at improving methane emissions measurement and transparency, thereby supporting the goals of the Paris Agreement and the Global Methane Pledge."The OGMP program was originally formed at the UN Secretary General's September 2014 Climate Summit in New York and includes member companies with assets representing some 30% of global oil and gas production. The group includes NGOs, along with government members including the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, France and Italy – all significant import markets for US LNG.Companies and climate advocates often point to methane emissions reductions as one low-hanging solution the upstream sector can pursue in its attempt to decarbonize. Climate advocacy group Environmental Defense Fund — one of OGMP 2.0's backers — has called methane emissions reduction the "fastest opportunity" available to slow climate change. The group last year published research claiming that widespread rollout of presently available methane emissions control technologies could slow global warming over the next few decades by more than 25%.While estimates of the climate impact of methane emissions cuts can vary, groups such as EDF have championed a number of those emissions control technologies that have started to saturate the industry in recent years. Advanced methane leak detection using drones, infrared imaging and a host of other technologies are key parts of recent decarbonization plans offered by oil and gas producers. The Oil and Gas Climate Initiative — another climate-focused consortium of oil and gas majors and independents — is focusing investments in a $1 billion fund on even more cutting-edge emissions control technologies such as satellite monitoring that could help members achieve near-zero methane emissions by 2030.
Hilcorp, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips top greenhouse gas emitters among U.S. oil and gas companies - Hilcorp Energy, Exxon Mobil, and ConocoPhillips release the most greenhouse gasses among U.S. oil and gas companies, according to a new report published Thursday from several sustainability organizations using data from the U.S. government. The annual report ranks emissions data from the 303 oil and gas companies in the U.S. that report emissions under the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, and aims to bring transparency into emissions reporting, which has historically been hard to measure in a comparable and consistent manner. Nonprofit organizations Clean Air Task Force and Ceres commissioned the sustainability consultancy ERM to develop the report, and it uses government data up through 2020, the most up-to-date emissions data available from the Environmental Protection Agency. Data for 2021 will be released in October. Greenhouse gas emissions include methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions, which differ in their impact on warming. For example, over 100 years, one ton of methane emissions has the same impact on global warming as 29.8 tons of carbon dioxide. In many places, the report ranks companies and regions by so-called "GWP's," or units of global warming potential, which take into account these variabilities. The total units of GWPs do not correlate directly with the production of oil and gas. For example, while Hilcorp Energy is the largest emitter of greenhouse gas units, it is the seventh-largest producer of hydrocarbons. ConocoPhillips is the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gasses and the eighth-largest producer of hydrocarbons. "This new report makes clear what experts have long known: There are clear steps oil and gas producers can take to reduce their methane and other greenhouse gas emissions," Lesley Feldman, senior analyst at Clean Air Task Force, said in a written statement released alongside the new report. "Some are taking those steps while others are not, and federal and state regulations are key to ensuring we can standardize best practices across the industry." To get a sense of company's operational abilities to decarbonize, the report measures emissions intensity, or emissions per unit of energy generated. Total emissions will tend to skew towards the largest producers, while emissions intensity does not. In terms of total greenhouse gas emissions intensity for the 303 companies, Hilcorp Energy ranks 128th, ConocoPhillips ranks 191th and Exxon ranks 238th.
Homes evacuated due to explosion at ONEOK Gas Plant in Oklahoma - Evacuations have been issued after an explosion at a ONEOK plant in Medford.On Saturday afternoon, officials responded to an explosion at a ONEOK plant in Medford. On Facebook, the Grant County Sheriff's Office said the evacuation zone around ONEOK is a two-mile radius at this time. The fairgrounds building in Pond Creek is open for people to go but you cannot use Highway 81 south out of Medford, officials said.The Oklahoma Highway Patrol has closed several roads in Grant County. US-81 at the intersection of Greer and the intersection of Haskell are closed at this time.Additionally, the roadway at US-60/US-81 in Pond Creek is closed. The Oklahoma Department of Transportation is assisting with barricades.
Large fire at Oklahoma gas plant forces major evacuations - - A large fire Saturday afternoon engulfed a natural gas plant in the small northern Oklahoma town of Medford. Video posted to social media showed heavy flames and smoke billowing hundreds of feet into the air. The fire occurred at a "natural gas liquids fractionation facility" operated by ONEOK, a company spokesperson confirmed in a statement to CBS News. ONEOK said it was "unaware of any injuries." All residents within a two-mile radius of the plant were asked to immediately evacuate, the Grant County Sheriff's Office reported. The number of people being evacuated was unclear, although Medford has a population of about 930 people, according to latest U.S. Census data. ONEOK was arranging temporary housing for evacuees at several hotels in the nearby city of Enid, Oklahoma, the sheriff's office said. Authorities did not provide any information on what may have caused the fire. "Our focus continues working with emergency responders to extinguish the fire and the safety of the surrounding community and our employees," ONEOK said in its statement. Medford is located about 15 miles south of the Oklahoma-Kansas border. ONEOK is headquartered in Tulsa.
New Mexico's Oil and Gas Revenues Are Breaking Records and Complicating Budgets - Oil and gas revenues added more than $1.7 billion to New Mexico coffers in the first four months of the year — more than in any other four-month period in state history. A lot more. Records compiled by the New Mexico Tax and Revenue Department show that year-on-year, revenues from January through April more than doubled from $782 million in 2021 — itself a record year. (Records lag by two months to allow producers time to report their production numbers.) This money gusher comes from increasing production in New Mexico’s portion of the Permian Basin — currently the most productive oilfield on the planet — and skyrocketing oil and gas prices brought on by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. State Sen. George Muñoz (D-Gallup), vice chair of the powerful Legislative Finance Committee, says that committee economists peg the state’s likely take from oil and gas at $5.2 billion for the fiscal year — roughly a billion more than last year’s oil and gas revenue. That tally may rise if world oil prices remain high. Mountains of money are generally a good thing for anyone, but the unplanned windfall does come with complications. The first is the kind of money brought in by oil and gas production. Roughly speaking, state government views revenues in two ways: as one-time or recurring income. Recurring money remains fairly steady year after year. For example, people will generally remain employed and use their earnings to buy things, making income and sales taxes a reliable source of steady, recurring revenue for the state. New Mexico was the first state to return to — and then exceed — pre-pandemic oil production levels earlier this year after they cratered in early 2020. However, record-breaking fossil fuel revenue is treated as one-time money: It can’t be counted on to repeat, so it can’t be used to create new programs, add permanent jobs or increase pay for state employees across the board. One-time money can build police stations and water treatment plants and schools, but it can’t pay the people to fill them. And that makes budgeting difficult. “When you have that one-time money surpassing recurring money, it becomes a little topsy-turvy,” Muñoz says. And he says that his committee’s economists are predicting that that is exactly what is about to happen. The second problem stems from the first: This is oil money, and oil money has a roller-coaster history and a murky, finite future.
Energy-Producing States Lag in Latest Economic Numbers -The Pew Charitable Trusts - Amid worries about a possible recession, energy-producing states had the biggest drops in GDP during the first quarter of this year, despite skyrocketing oil and gas prices, new government figures show. The main reason: Energy companies are still struggling to bring back workers and rigs that were idled early in the pandemic. GDP, or gross domestic product, is a measure of economic output. The unofficial definition of a recession is when GDP drops for two consecutive quarters. However, a recession is generally accompanied by a significant rise in the unemployment rate, and U.S. employment remains strong. Labor Department figures released Friday show the economy added 372,000 jobs in June, a larger-than-expected increase. No state has seen a significant spike in joblessness. The states with the largest declines in GDP so far this year, however, are heavy oil, gas and coal producers: Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Wyoming all registered decreases of between 4% and 10% in GDP. In addition to labor shortages, energy companies are grappling with supply chain issues and are wary of investing in more production as the United States works to move away from its reliance on fossil fuels, according to Wenlin Liu, chief economist in Wyoming’s state Economic Analysis Division. Wyoming had the largest drop in GDP. “There are many reasons for their slow response to the increasing and high prices, from supply chain restraint, labor force shortages, investor pressure, regulation concerns to uncertainty about the future in terms of climate change regulation,” Liu said.
Whiting tops the bidders in Montana/Dakotas oil and gas lease sale - Just ahead of the planned merger with Oasis Petroleum, Whiting Oil and Gas turned out to be the high bidder in the Bureau of Land Management’s Montana/Dakotas oil and gas lease sale. The sale netted $5.354 million for 19 parcels, of which Whiting’s bids totaled $2.346 million for a 68.53 acre parcel in Mountrail County. Whiting has since merged with Oasis Petroleum. The two are operating under the new name, Chord Energy. There were a total of 23 parcels totaling 3,405 acres in both Montana and North Dakota in the sale. It’s the first of five sales across Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas. The Bureau of Land Management, in a media release, said the parcels offered for sale were based on recommendations from the Department of the Interior’s Report on the Federal Oil and Gas Leasing Program, as well as other reports issued by the Governmental Accountability Office and Congressional Budget Office, as well as input from Tribal consultation, environmental reviews, and resolution of protests received. The sale was the first to implement an increased royalty rate of 18.75 percent, which the Department said in its report on the program would be more in line with the rates charged by states and private landowners. Royalty rates had not been increased in decades, the Interior’s report noted.
Upstream mergers and acquisitions fall to $12 billion during ‘challenging quarter’ - Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, an energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, is releasing its summary of Q2 2022 upstream M&A. Overall, Q2 was a challenging quarter for negotiating deals as volatility roiled both commodity and equity markets. Despite that, about $12 billion was transacted in upstream M&A as numerous private equity (PE) firms brought their investments to market looking to cash in on high oil and gas prices; PE sellers accounted for about 80% of the quarter’s deal value. “As anticipated, the spike in commodity prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine temporarily stalled M&A as buyers and sellers disagreed on the value of assets,” said Andrew Dittmar, director at Enverus Intelligence Research. “High prices, though, also encouraged a rush by PE firms to test the waters for M&A. While not everyone that is going into the market is getting what they deem to be a suitable offer, enough are to drive modestly active upstream M&A.” The Permian Basin was the largest contributing play to deal value, and it remains the main engine of Lower 48 M&A. About one-third of the quarter’s total deal value came from a merger of equals between private Colgate Energy Partners III, which is focused on the Delaware Basin part of the Permian, and public Centennial Resource Development. For the bigger private operators like Colgate, a merger with a similarly sized public counterpart can be an attractive move as it achieves larger scale and a public listing at the same time. Looking beyond the Permian, large multi-region deals for non-operated interests contributed a substantial part of Q2 M&A value. One of these was an agreement between Grey Rock Energy Partners and Paul Ryan-affiliated Executive Network Partnering Corp to form Granite Ridge Resources. The $1.3 billion combination formed a new public non-operated working interest owner with further consolidation plans. It also showed how special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs can be used to circumvent the challenges of IPO markets.
U.S. Officials suggest pipeline company hid problems after oil spill - U.S. prosecutors suspect a Wyoming company of potentially concealing problems with a pipeline that broke in 2015 and spilled more than 50,000 gallons (240,000 liters) of crude into Montana's Yellowstone River, fouling a small city's drinking water supply, court filings show. The government is suing Bridger Pipeline for violations of environmental laws in the 2015 spill, which came after the line buried beneath the Yellowstone became exposed and broke when ice scoured the river bottom near Glendive, Montana. Prosecutors are pursuing similar claims against a related company over a 2016 spill in North Dakota that released more than 600,000 gallons (2.7 million liters) of crude. The accidents came a few years after an Exxon-Mobil oil pipeline broke beneath the Yellowstone during flooding. The spills helped put a national focus on the nation's aging pipeline network, which has continued to suffer high profile accidents including recent spills in Louisiana and California. A survey of Bridger's pipeline on the company's behalf in 2011 included a note that the pipe was buried only 1.5 feet (0.5 meters) beneath the ever-shifting river bottom. That would have put it at heightened risk of breaking. But after the spill, prosecutors alleged, company representatives referenced a second survey when they told federal regulators that the pipeline had been buried at least 7.9 feet (2.4 meters), giving it "adequate cover" to protect against spills. "This raises questions -- which Bridger has yet to answer -- about whether Bridger concealed material facts about the condition of the crossing before the Yellowstone spill," assistant U.S. Attorney Mark Elmer wrote in court documents. Attorneys for Bridger rejected the allegations about conflicting surveys as "conspiracy theories." Pipeline company spokesperson Bill Salvin said the government misunderstood the surveys. "There was adequate depth of cover across the entire crossing," Salvin said. "We think the government is trying to find something that's just not there." Federal prosecutors last month filed a lawsuit with similar claims against a sister company, Belle Fourche Pipeline, over the 2016 North Dakota spill that contaminated the Little Missouri River and a tributary. Both pipeline businesses are part of Casper, Wyoming-based True Companies, which operates 1,800 miles (2,900 kilometers) of line in Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming. Prosecutors allege the spills violated the Clean Water Act and are subject to penalties of up to US$6.6 million in the Montana case and up to US$89.5 million in the North Dakota case.
Biden plan could advance massive Arctic oil project - The Biden administration released an updated analysis of a major Arctic oil and gas project last week that opened the door to approving a scaled-back version of the controversial proposal — a prospect environmentalists slammed as betraying the president’s climate agenda.The Interior Department’s draft supplemental environmental impact statement (EIS) of ConocoPhillips Alaska Inc.’s Willow project was the result of a federal court order last year. The draft, made public late Friday, includes a new alternative that could cut two of five drill sites in an effort to avoid critical habitat for polar bears, migrating waterfowl and caribou herds in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area.The new alternative outlined in the draft supplemental EIS proposes to eliminate the “northernmost proposed drill site and associated infrastructure” in the lake area, and to defer a decision on a second drill site pending further analysis. Doing so could provide a compromise that authorizes the project to produce roughly 630 million barrels of oil over its 30-year life while reducing the overall footprint and emissions.The project is supported by many in Alaska, including the state’s political leadership, who see it as vital to bolstering the flagging oil and gas industry on the state’s North Slope and, therefore, local economies (Energywire, Jan. 7).Critics opposed to the Willow project in any form said they are concerned that the Bureau of Land Management, which oversees the 23-million-acre National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska where the project would be sited, appears to be preparing to move forward with the project outlined in the new alternative.BLM says the draft supplemental EIS is not a final decision and that it will not make one until it first analyzes public input following a 45-day public comment period that will kick off when the document is published on Friday in theFederal Register.But opponents’ concerns were heightened by the chaotic release of the draft document, which was abruptly yanked from BLM’s Willow project webpage for several hours shortly after it was posted last Friday. A different version of the document was eventually reposted.The original draft supplemental EIS included a section indicating the bureau would not reject the Willow project, in part because Congress has authorized oil production in the NPR-A — established in the 1920s by President Warren Harding as a future petroleum resource for the Navy.The “No Action” alternative in the original version of the draft document — which would block construction of the project — stated that “BLM does not have the authority to select this alternative because [ConocoPhillips Alaska’s] leases are valid and provide the right to develop the oil and gas resources therein.”This sparked immediate outrage from some advocates, who blasted the document as little more than an attempt by BLM to lay the groundwork for project approval.
Biden Administration Signals Support for Controversial Alaska Oil Project - The New York Times — The Biden administration took a key step toward approving a huge oil drilling project in the North Slope of Alaska, angering environmental activists who said allowing it to go forward would make a mockery of President Biden’s climate-change promise to end new oil leases.The ConocoPhillips project, known as Willow and located in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, was initially approved under the Trump administration and was later supported by the Biden administration but was then was blocked by a judge who said the environmental review had not sufficiently considered its effects on climate change and wildlife.On Friday, the Biden administration issued a new environmental analysis.In that analysis, the Department of the Interior said the multibillion-dollar plan would at its peak produce more than 180,000 barrels of crude oil a day and would emit at least 278 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions over its lifetime from the burning of the oil produced, as well as from construction and drilling activity at the site.The oil company’s plan calls for five drill sites, a processing facility, hundreds of miles of pipelines, nearly 40 miles of new gravel roads, seven bridges, an airstrip and a gravel mine in a region that is home to polar bears, caribou and migratory birds. Project opponents have argued that the development would harm wildlife and produce dangerous new levels of greenhouse gases.In a statement, the Interior Department said that the new analysis included several options, including a reduction in the number of drilling sites as well as an option for “no action” — or no drilling at all — and did not represent a final decision on the Willow project. The agency will take comments from the public for 45 days and is likely to make a final decision later this year.
Op-Ed: Wait, what? The Biden administration wants to drill on Alaska's North Slope? - The bitter end of the fossil fuel era is playing out in one of the world’s wildest remaining places: Alaska’s North Slope. And it’s not pretty. On Friday, the Interior Department released a draft supplemental environmental impact statement on the Willow project, an oil development on Alaska’s North Slope that Interior says would release as much as 284 million metric tons of carbon dioxide over its 30-year lifetime, and perhaps more. The Biden administration seems to be leaning toward permitting this carbon bomb, which would mock its campaign commitments to ease off on new oil leases — and in fact would represent a continuation of Trump-era efforts to drill big in the far northern tundra. Trump, you may recall, made drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge a priority. But after a fierce campaign by Gwich’in Natives and environmentalists, no big oil companies were willing to bid for leases on that land. Perhaps they were beginning to see the writing on the wall: With the cost of renewables plummeting, it no longer made sense to go to the ends of the world in search of more hydrocarbons. But Alaska’s congressional delegation — especially Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski — never gave up on expanding oil development. She’s moved her efforts a couple of hundred miles west to what would be a massive extraction: ConocoPhillips’s Willow project, near the village of Nuiqsut and in the National Petroleum Reserve. This time Murkowski appears to have team Biden in her corner, even though the development plan has all the usual horrors: a Texas-based corporation turning Northern Alaska into another industrial sacrifice zone, jeopardizing Indigenous food security (particularly by threatening the Teshekpuk caribou herd), surrounding the people of Nuiqsut with light, noise and chemical pollution, and of course, locking in decades of fossil fuel extraction when scientists tell us we must be doing precisely the opposite. Willow is the biggest oil and gas project pending on U.S. public lands, and that’s using the Biden administration’s estimate of what it would produce, about 600 million barrels of crude oil. Privately, according to the Washington Post, ConocoPhillips is telling investors that its new Arctic “hub” could eventually unlock five times as much: 3 billion barrels.Though ConocoPhillips may use this year’s high gas prices or the energy disruptions caused by the Ukraine war to push the project, those are just industry talking points. By the time the project comes online, modelers are predicting 33% of vehicle sales will be electric. And the current round of climate crises will only be growing. Already more of Alaska has burned so far this year than at this point in time in the last 80 years. Local officials, including native communities, are split: Oil always means money, even if a lot of it goes out of state. But scientists are not split: The International Energy Agency said last year that if we had any hope of meeting the targets the world set in Paris in 2015, there could be no further expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure.
Gas spilled in Sydney fuel leak recovered, says Imperial Oil --The remaining gasoline from a fuel spill in Sydney, N.S., has been pumped into a new container, an Imperial Oil spokesperson said Sunday. On Friday, roughly 600,000 litres of gas leaked out of a storage tank at Imperial Oil. Nearly 60 homes were temporarily evacuated Friday because of the spill. No injuries were reported, and residents returned to their homes in the evening. Imperial Oil spokesperson Keri Scobie said the recovery of the spilled fuel from within a containment area started Saturday night and was completed Sunday morning. The spilled fuel was pumped into an existing empty tank on the compound, Scobie said. Scobie was not certain how much of the 600,000 litres was recovered, as some may have been absorbed in the containment foam and some may have evaporated. She said it was not possible that any gasoline got into the ground as there was gravel and clay in the containment area and that typically absorbs any substance that gets released on site. Now that the remaining fuel has been recovered, Scobie said, remedial work has begun. "We've just got some environmental folks coming in to look at … what sort of impacts are there from an environmental standpoint," she said. That will take us probably over the next couple of days to figure out what that plan looks like for remediation." She said Imperial Oil personnel will be working on site with Nova Scotia Environment and Climate Change staff and regulators. Part of the work of the team, Scobie said, will be determining what to do with the recovered fuel. According to Scobie, on-site monitoring has been taking place since Friday and no community safety or health concerns have been detected. Responding to reports of gas shortages in Sydney on Saturday, Scobie said the supply situation was more likely "related to driver issues" than it was to anything happening at the Imperial Oil terminal.
Cleanup ongoing: Fuel recovered from 600,000 litre gasoline spill at Sydney terminal – The environmental impact of a major gasoline spill at a Cape Breton petroleum distribution terminal could have been worse.In addition to last week’s leakage of about 600,000 litres of gasoline from a punctured tank at Imperial Oil’s Sydney facility, a precautionary power outage resulted in the discharging of roughly 48,000 cubic metres of untreated wastewater from the adjacent Battery Point wastewater treatment plant.“It’s not ideal but it’s not as uncommon as we would like it to be,” said Cape Breton University assistant engineering professor Allison Mackie whose areas of specialty include drinking water and industrial wastewater treatment.“In many locations, when there’s a big rain storm there might be untreated wastewater getting into a body of water. It does still happen. And, of course, we still have untreated wastewater going into Sydney harbour from the Westmount side although plans are in place to deal with that in the near future.“But as for the discharge of untreated wastewater into the harbour, well, I wouldn’t be overly concerned about that unless you go swimming near that location. Fortunately, there are no beaches right around there. Because it went into the ocean there is much less impact than if it had gone into a small lake.” Cape Breton Regional Municipality spokesperson Christina Lamey confirmed that the Battery Point treatment plant was unpowered for 47 hours. Following the spill, Imperial Oil instructed the municipality to shut off the treatment plant’s air-handling units to prevent gasoline fumes from entering the facility. Within a couple of hours, that order had been amended to shut down all power, including the backup generator, to the treatment plant. During the two days without power, an estimated 48,000 cubic metres (48-million litres) of untreated wastewater was discharged into the harbour. Lamey said power was restored to the plant on Monday. “There is nothing more that we can do about what happened on the weekend,” said Lamey.
EU to raise inflation forecasts as officials prepare for a permanent cut to Russian gas— The euro zone economy is expected to face higher inflation both this year and in 2023, officials told CNBC on Monday, while plans are being stepped up for the prospect of a permanent cut to Russian gas supplies. Europe has been under intense pressure in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with higher energy costs pushing up inflation across the region. This economic reality is unlikely to change anytime soon, with new forecasts pointing to an upward revision in consumer prices across the bloc. "What we see [is that] economic growth is proving quite resilient this year, still one can expect some downwards revision and even more so for the next year because of many uncertainties and risks," Valdis Dombrovskis, executive vice president at the European Commission, told reporters ahead of a meeting of finance ministers. "Unfortunately, inflation continues to surprise on the upside, so it's once again going to be revised upwards," he added. The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, will present new economic forecasts on Thursday. Back in May, the institution projected a growth rate of 2.7% for this year and 2.3% for next year, both for the EU and the euro area. In terms of inflation in the euro area, the commission said this would hit 6.1% in 2022, before falling to 2.7% in 2023. Higher inflation could add further pressure to the European Central Bank, which is expected to raise rates for the first time in 11 years next week. France's Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said over the weekend that Europe needed to prepare itself for a total cut-off of Russian gas supplies. Energy analysts believe that the risk of a temporary interruption is high, particularly as Russian gas flows have already dropped by about 60% in recent months.
Shell’s subsea compression project off Norway to assist in keeping up gas supply to Europe - UK-headquartered energy giant Shell has received approval from the Norwegian authorities for a development plan related to its gas subsea compression project in the Norwegian Sea, which is expected to lead to increased gas extraction from this field. Back in September 2021, Shell submitted its plan for development and operation (PDO) for the Ormen Lange wet gas subsea compression project to the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. As reported at the time, the project is expected to unlock an additional 30-50 billion cubic meters of natural gas, leading to an increase in Ormen Lange’s overall gas recovery rate. In an update on Friday, the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy informed that it has approved the plan for the further development of the Ormen Lange field. Terje Aasland, Norway’s Minister of Petroleum and Energy, remarked: “This project will increase recovery from the Ormen Lange field from 75 to 85 per cent, at the same time as gas production from the field is accelerated. This project helps to maintain the gas supply from Norway to our friends in Europe from the middle of this decade.” Moreover, the goal of the project is to increase gas extraction from Ormen Lange by up to 40 billion standard cubic meters (Sm3) of gas and the expected start-up of the project is anticipated in 2025. The project entails the installation of a wet gas compressor system on the seabed at a 900-metre depth close to the wellheads, increasing gas flow from the reservoir into the wells.
“Europe on high alert as Russia temporarily halts gas flows via major pipeline - Europe is bracing for an extended shutdown of Russian gas supplies as maintenance work begins on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that brings gas to Germany via the Baltic Sea. Operator Nord Stream AG confirmed the work, which is scheduled to run from Monday through to July 21, got underway as planned Monday morning. Russian gas flows via the pipeline are expected to drop to zero later in the day. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline is Europe's single biggest piece of gas import infrastructure, carrying around 55 billion cubic meters of the fuel per year from Russia to Germany. Europe fears the suspension of deliveries could be extended beyond the 10-day timeline, derailing the region's winter supply preparations and exacerbating a gas crisis that has prompted skyrocketing energy bills for households and emergency measures from policymakers. It comes as European governments scramble to fill underground storage with gas supplies to provide households with enough fuel to keep the lights on and homes warm during winter. The EU, which receives roughly 40% of its gas via Russian pipelines, is trying to rapidly reduce its reliance on Russian hydrocarbons in response to President Vladimir Putin's monthslong onslaught in Ukraine. Klaus Mueller, the head of Germany's energy regulator, believes the Kremlin may continue to throttle Europe's energy supplies beyond the scheduled end of the maintenance work. "We cannot rule out the possibility that gas transport will not be resumed afterwards for political reasons," Mueller told CNBC last week..
Gazprom casts doubt on pipeline's quick return to full flow - (AP) — Russian energy company Gazprom appeared to cast doubt Wednesday on the prospects of quickly restoring the flow of natural gas to full capacity through a major pipeline to Western Europe. Gazprom reduced the gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1 to Germany by 60% last month. The state-owned gas company cited technical problems involving a piece of equipment that partner Siemens Energy sent to Canada for overhaul and couldn’t be returned because of sanctions imposed over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Canadian government said over the weekend that it would allow the gas turbine that powers a compressor station to be delivered to Germany, citing the “very significant hardship” that the German economy would suffer without a sufficient gas supply to keep industries running and generate electricity. Gazprom tweeted Wednesday that it “does not possess any documents that would enable Siemens to get the gas turbine engine ... out of Canada.” It added that “in these circumstances, it appears impossible to reach an objective conclusion on further developments regarding the safe operation” of a compressor station at the Russian end of the pipeline, which it said is “of critical importance.” Siemens Energy had no comment on Gazprom's statement. The company previously has said that it wants to get the turbine to its location as quickly as possible and is working on the necessary permits and logistics. Nord Stream 1 runs under the Baltic Sea and is Germany’s main source of Russian gas, which recently has accounted for about 35% of the country's total gas supply. Gas is usually sent onward to other European countries as well. German politicians have dismissed Russia’s technical explanation for last month’s reduction in gas flowing through Nord Stream 1, saying the decision was a political gambit to sow uncertainty and further push up energy prices. Nord Stream 1 has been shut down altogether since Monday for annual maintenance that is scheduled to last until July 21. German officials are concerned that Russia may not resume gas deliveries at all, pointing to a possibility that it might cite another technical detail as a reason to keep the gas turned off.
Gas pipeline shutdown starts amid German suspicion of Russia - (AP) — A major natural gas pipeline from Russia to western Europe shut down Monday for annual maintenance as Germany prepared to give the green light for 10 coal-fired power plants to restart because of concerns that Russia may not resume the flow of gas as scheduled. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline runs under the Baltic Sea from Russia and is Germany's main source of Russian gas. Gas is usually sent onward to other countries, as well. The line is scheduled to be out of action until July 21 for routine work that the operator says includes “testing of mechanical elements and automation systems.” The operator's data showed the gas flow dropping as planned Monday morning. German officials are suspicious about Russia's intentions, particularly after Russia's Gazprom last month reduced the gas flow through Nord Stream 1 by 60%. Gazprom cited technical problems involving a gas turbine powering a compressor station that partner Siemens Energy sent to Canada for overhaul and couldn't be returned because of sanctions imposed over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Canada said over the weekend that it would allow the part to be delivered to Germany, citing the “very significant hardship” that the German economy would suffer without a sufficient gas supply. German politicians have dismissed Russia's technical explanation for last month's reduction in the gas flowing through Nord Stream 1, saying the decision was a political gambit to sow uncertainty and push up energy prices. German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck has said he suspects that Russia may cite “some little technical detail” as a reason not to resume gas deliveries through the pipeline after this month's maintenance. The head of Germany's network regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, said that “no one can say exactly” whether the gas will be switched back on. “We have very varied signals from Russia,” Klaus Mueller told ZDF television. “There are Kremlin spokespeople who say that, in combination with the Siemens turbine, they can deliver significantly more again; but there have also been very martial messages from the Kremlin.” On Sunday, Ukraine's energy and foreign ministries said the return of Nord Stream 1 turbines “is adjusting the sanctions regime to the whims of Russia.” In his nightly video address Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy predicted Russia would act again to cut off its supply of natural gas to Europe “at the most acute moment." “This is what we need to prepare for now, this is what is being provoked now,” Zelenskyy said. He added that Canada's decision to allow shipment of the repaired gas turbine would set a dangerous precedent that Russia will exploit "because every concession in such conditions is perceived by the Russian leadership as an incentive for further, stronger pressure."
Germany dims the lights to cope with Russia gas supply crunch --Germany is rationing hot water, dimming its street lights and shutting down swimming pools as the impact of its energy crunch begins to spread from industry to offices, leisure centres and homes.A huge increase in gas prices triggered by Russia’s move last month to sharply reduce supplies to Germany has plunged Europe’s biggest economy into its worst energy crisis since the oil price shock of 1973.Gas importers and utilities are fighting for survival while consumer bills are going through the roof, with some warning of rising friction.As tensions over Russia’s war in Ukraine escalate, officials fear the situation could get worse. On Monday, Russia is shutting down its main pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 1, for 10 days of scheduled maintenance. Many in Berlin fear it will never reopen.Germany last month took a crucial step towards rationing gas when economy minister Robert Habeck activated the second stage of the country’s gas emergency plan. “The situation on the gas market is tense and unfortunately we can’t guarantee that it will not get worse,” he said on Tuesday. “We have to be prepared for the situation to become critical.”Habeck, who says he is now taking shorter showers, has appealed to the population to save energy — and municipalities and property owners have heeded the call.On Thursday Vonovia, the country’s largest residential landlord, said it would be lowering the temperature of its tenants’ gas central heating to 17C between 11pm and 6am. It said the measure would save 8 per cent in heating costs.A housing association in the Saxon town of Dippoldiswalde, near the Czech border, went a step further this week, saying it was rationing the supply of hot water to tenants. From now on they can only take hot showers between 4am-8am, 11am-1pm and 5pm-9pm.Such measures could become routine in the coming weeks. Helmut Dedy, head of the German Association of Towns and Cities, said the “whole of society” must now cut down on its energy consumption, saving in summer “so we have warm flats in winter”.Dedy appealed to town councils up and down the country to take emergency action. He had a few suggestions: turn off traffic lights at night; shut off hot water in council buildings, museums and sports centres; adjust air conditioners; and stop illuminating historic buildings.Some have already taken measures. The district of Lahn-Dill, near Frankfurt, has switched off the hot water in its 86 schools and 60 gyms until mid-September, a move it hopes will save it €100,000 in energy costs, and Düsseldorf has temporarily closed a massive swimming pool complex, the Münster-Therme. Meanwhile, Berlin has turned down the thermostat on open-air swimming pools, reducing their temperature by 2 degrees. In western Germany, Cologne is dimming its street lighting to 70 per cent of full strength from 11pm.Costs could increase even more as a result of a new law working its way through the German parliament. This would allow the government to impose an emergency levy on all gas consumers to spread the cost of higher prices more evenly. It is designed to prevent gas importers becoming insolvent, a scenario ministers fear could cause a Lehman Brothers-style meltdown of the whole sector. Uniper, the largest importer of Russian gas in Germany, is already in talks with officials on a state bailout that experts say could be as large as €9bn.
Germany Hopes to Outrace a Russian Gas Cutoff and Bone Cold Winter - - Russian natural gas has fired the furnaces that create molten stainless steel at Clemens Schmees’s family foundry since 1961, when his father set up shop in a garage in the western part of Germany. It never crossed Clemens’s mind that this energy flow could one day become unaffordable or cease altogether. Now Mr. Schmees, like thousands of other chieftains at companies across Germany, is scrambling to prepare for the possibility that his operations could face stringent rationing this winter if Russia turns off the gas. “We’ve had many crises,” he said, sitting in the company’s branch office in the eastern city of Pirna, overlooking the Elbe River valley. “But we have never before had such instability and uncertainty, all at once.” Such sentiments are reverberating this week in executive suites, at kitchen tables and in government offices as Nord Stream 1, the direct gas pipeline between Russia and Europe, was shut down for 10 days of scheduled maintenance. Germany, the pipeline’s terminus and a gas transit hub for the rest of Europe, is the largest and most important economy on the continent. And anxiety that President Vladimir V. Putin may not switch the gas back on — as a display of brinkmanship with countries that oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — is particularly sharp. “We have never before had such instability and uncertainty, all at once,” said Clemens Schmees, whose family has owned a foundry since 1961. In Berlin, officials have declared a “gas crisis” and triggered an emergency energy plan. Already landlords, schools and municipalities have begun to lower thermostats, ration hot water, close swimming pools, turn off air-conditioners, dim streetlights and exhort the benefits of cold showers. Analysts predict that a recession in Germany is “imminent.” Government officials are racing to bail out the largest importer of Russian gas, a company called Uniper. And political leaders warn that Germany’s “social peace” could unravel. The crisis has not only set off a frantic clamber to manage a potentially painful crunch this winter. It has also prompted a reassessment of the economic model that turned Germany into a global powerhouse and produced enormous wealth for decades. Nearly every country on the continent is facing potentially profound energy shortages, soaring prices and slower growth. On Thursday, the European Commission cut its growth forecast for this year to 2.7 percent. In another sign of recession anxiety, the value of the euro dipped below the dollar this week.
Russia's squeeze on gas means Germany's energy giant is having to draw supplies from storage - German energy giant Uniper on Friday said it is having to draw down gas from storage facilities, reducing supplies needed for winter even as Europe is experiencing an extreme heatwave. The embattled utility told CNBC in a statement that reducing gas volumes from its own storage facilities was necessary "in order to supply our customers with gas and to secure the Uniper's liquidity." Finnish majority-owner Fortum said last week that Uniper submitted a bailout application to the German government after running into extreme financial distress due to a scarcity of gas and soaring prices. Germany's economy ministry said Friday that there is still no timeframe for government assistance, according to Reuters. Speaking to reporters at a press conference on July 8, Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach warned that drawing down gas supplies from its storage facilities was a possibility due to the "enormous decrease" of imported gas from Russia. It comes even as Europe is sweltering amid a heat wave that has seen temperatures exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in several countries. Droughts and wildfires have been recorded in Spain and Portugal and sweltering temperatures have spread to the U.K. and France. Climate scientists have repeatedly made clear that human-caused global heating is making heat waves more likely and more intense. As scorching temperatures spread across the region, European policymakers remain focused on preparations for when the cold weather returns. Governments are scrambling to fill underground storage with gas supplies to provide households with enough fuel to keep the lights on and homes warm during winter. 'Really tough' few months ahead Uniper was the first German energy company to sound the alarm over soaring energy bills in the wake of Russia's onslaught in Ukraine. The company has received only 40% of Russian contracted volumes in recent weeks and has been forced to source the replacement volumes at significantly higher prices. What's more, annual maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline — the European Union's biggest piece of gas import infrastructure — has fueled fears of further disruption to gas supplies.
Europe’s Insatiable Thirst For LNG Is Causing Blackouts In Developing Countries - In June, the European Union imported more liquefied natural gas from the United States than pipeline gas from Russia for the first time ever. The unprecedented shift came as the EU scrambled to fill up its gas storage facilities ahead of the next heating season in fear Russia could turn off the gas tap at any moment. It also pushed LNG prices sky-high, making it unaffordable for developing countries."Because of the Ukraine war, every single molecule that was available in our region has been purchased by Europe, because they're trying to reduce their dependence on Russia," Pakistan's Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik said earlier this month as quoted by the Wall Street Journal.Pakistan has been suffering from blackouts because of insufficient LNG supplies that the country needs to keep its power plants going. And the reason for the insufficient supplies is that Europe can pay more for the commodity, so traders are sending their cargos there, including cargos originally destined for Pakistan and other Asian countries.According to data from Wood Mackenzie cited by the Wall Street Journal, while Europe's LNG imports soared 49 percent from the start of the year to mid-June, Pakistan's imports fell by 15 percent during the same period, those to India shed 16 percent, and China's LNG imports fell by more than a fifth."The European gas crisis is sucking the world dry of LNG," Valery Chow, head of Asia Pacific gas and LNG research at Wood Mackenzie, told the WSJ. "Emerging markets in Asia have borne the brunt of this and there is no end in sight."Not everyone seems to be quite so pessimistic. Reuters reported in late June that demand for LNG from Asia is on the rebound, with one analyst forecasting a decline in European Union LNG imports over the second half of the year."There has been a growing imbalance between Asia and Europe, with European stocks growing at the expense of Asian inventories," Reuters quoted Capra Energy managing director Tamir Druz as saying."We expect LNG imports for the EU, Turkey and the UK over the second half of 2022 to be lower than what we've seen in the first six months, with a drop of about 16%, or 10 million tonnes," Druz added."Asia is already in preparation for winter, with LNG vessels being snapped up on multi-month charters, as charterers fear being caught without shipping capacity during crunch months," said another analyst, Kaushal Ramesh from Rystad Energy. That might be the case, but Pakistan last week failed to attract any bids in a $1-billion tender for liquefied natural gas, the WSJ noted in its report, and India has turned to more coal-fired generation to keep the lights on. In Bangladesh, like in Pakistan, blackouts have had to be enforced.
Spain Calls On Firms To Minimize LNG Imports From Russia - Spain has called on its companies to seek to lower imports of LNG from Russia, while the Spanish government looks to help other EU member states with energy and power supply this year, Energy Minister Teresa Ribera said.“It is desirable that traders seek to minimise imports of Russian gas and diversify the contracts they may hold,” Ribera said at a press briefing as carried by Reuters.Unlike most of the EU, Spain does not depend on Russian pipeline gas, but it has the highest number of LNG import terminals in Europe—six.Imports of LNG from Russia represented nearly 12 percent of Spain’s gas imports in May, compared to a 6.6 percent share of Russian LNG in May 2021, according to Reuters estimates.Spain is now urging importers to minimize exposure to Russian LNG contracts while at the same time adopting some energy-saving measures in order to help other EU markets with power supply.In May, the Spanish government passed a decree limiting the use of air conditioning in public buildings as part of a strategy to conserve energy and reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. Spain itself does not depend on gas from Russia, but its government is working to increase energy efficiency as the European Union looks to reduce reliance on Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of this year alone.While Spain has six LNG import terminals, it is not well connected via pipelines to other countries, limiting European access to LNG imports.Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, companies have been studying plans for possible offshore pipeline connections from Spain to Italy. In May, energy infrastructure operator Snam of Italy signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Spanish energy and transmission system operator Enagas for a feasibility study on an offshore pipeline between Spain and Italy. Snam and Enagas will jointly mandate a technical feasibility study aimed at the potential construction of an offshore pipeline connecting Spain with Italy, “which would be beneficial to further diversify energy supply towards our country as well as Europe,” the Italian company said.
New pipeline from Greece to Bulgaria offsets Russian gas cut - (AP) — The leaders of Greece and Bulgaria on Friday marked the completion of a new pipeline that will supply natural gas from Azerbaijan to Bulgaria, whose vital supply of Russian gas was cut off in April amid the fallout over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stressed the importance of the new link as an alternative supply line for Bulgaria, as neighboring Greece jockeys to become a regional energy transport hub. “This isn't just a gas pipeline, but a crucial south-north energy bridge,” Mitsotakis said during a ceremony in northeastern Greece. He added that Europe needs to coordinate its response to “Moscow’s conscious choice to turn natural resources into a lever of political pressure, into a raw blackmail.” “It is something our Bulgarian neighbors already know very well,” Mitsotakis said. In late April, Russia cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria after it refused a demand by Moscow to pay gas bills in rubles, Russia’s currency. Relations between the two former Soviet bloc allies have tanked in recent months, and last month Bulgaria ordered the expulsion of 70 Russian diplomats, triggering an angry response from Moscow. Bulgaria’s acting prime minister, Kiril Petkov, highlighted the pipeline’s key role in ending Russia’s gas monopoly in his country. "Thus, for the first time, our country will have real terrestrial access to alternative energy sources other than the Russian ones,” Petkov said. The 182-kilometer (115-mile) pipeline will run from the northeastern Greek city of Komotini to Stara Zagora in central Bulgaria. It starts with an initial capacity of 3 billion cubic meters of gas a year, and the prospect of future expansion to 5 billion cubic meters. Commercial deliveries are expected to start by Oct. 1. Greece is looking to serve as an energy hub for the Balkans, using fossil fuels from the Caspian Sea and the southeastern Mediterranean, and, potentially renewable energy from Egypt, to supply the region amid the fallout of the war in Ukraine.
Deep-sea pipelaying to carry Turkey's Black Sea gas begins -- rkey has started work on laying the deep-sea section of a pipeline to carry its over 540 billion cubic meters (bcm) natural gas reserves from the Black Sea. Pipeplaying vessel Castorone began work on the section Sunday after the shallow-water section of the pipeline was completed earlier. Work at Turkey's newly discovered Sakarya Gas Field in the Black Sea continues 24/7 as the project is expected to unlock Turkey's foreign dependency in the energy sector, according to Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez. Since its launch, the project has passed important milestones on a daily basis as onshore and offshore works continue at a breakneck pace. More than 5,000 personnel are working round-the-clock at the Sakarya Field, the site of Turkey's largest natural gas discovery, to start pumping to the national grid by Q1 2023. Multiple teams from the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) are carrying out onshore and offshore works to connect the Sakarya Gas Field to the Natural Gas Processing Facility at Filyos, a town in northern Turkey's Zonguldak. To that end, the 325-meter, 56,529-ton Castorone anchored off Filyos on July 6 and took over work on the deep-sea section after pipelaying in shallow waters was completed by the vessel, Castoro 10. Large sections of the offshore pipeline, each measuring 12 meters in length, were loaded onto support vessels at Filyos Port before being transfered to Castorone, which remained approximately 500 meters offshore. The giant vessel is scheduled to complete the pipelaying works by the beginning of autumn.
Azerbaijan discloses gas exports to Europe for 1H2022 --A total of 5.4 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas was exported to Europe in the first half of 2022, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Energy Parviz Shahbazov tweeted, Trend reports. Shahbazov noted that Azerbaijan exported 4.3 billion cubic meters of gas to Türkiye, while 1.5 billion cubic meters – to Georgia in the reporting period. In the first half of 2022, Azerbaijan boosted gas exports by 25.7 percent compared to the same period of 2021, and the country’s gas output increased by 15.1 percent reaching 23.4 billion cubic meters.
Harbour Energy's Offshore Well in Indonesia Hits 'Material Gas Accumulation' --Oil and gas company Harbour Energy has completed the drilling of the Timpan-1 exploration well located 150 kilometers offshore Indonesia, encountering "a material gas accumulation." The well, in a water depth of 4,245 feet (1293.8 meters). was drilled to a total vertical depth of 13,818 feet (4211.7 meters) subsea. "The well encountered a 390-foot (118.8m) gas column in a high net-to-gross, fine-grained sandstone reservoir with associated permeability of 1-10 mD. A full data acquisition program has been completed including wireline logging, 240 feet of core recovered and a drill stem test," Harbour Energy said. "The well flowed on test at 27 mmscfd of gas and 1,884 bopd of associated 58 degrees API condensate through a 56/64 inch choke. While the well has encountered a material gas accumulation, further work will be required to establish commerciality and the full potential of this play across the license," the company added. Gary Selbie, President Director, Indonesia, said, "We are encouraged by the result of this play-opening exploration well and potentially building on our successful operating history in Indonesia. "We look forward to working with our partners and the Government of Indonesia to determine the potential for commercialization of this important discovery." The Timpan-1 exploration well was drilled on the Andaman II license offshore North Sumatra, Indonesia. The partners in the license are Premier Oil Andaman Limited, a Harbour Energy company (40 percent, operated), bp (30 percent), and Mubadala (30 percent).
Japan eyes ‘gas saving’ scheme amid increasing LNG supply concerns: METI - Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry intends to introduce a scheme asking city gas consumers and large end-users to conserve gas usage in times of serious LNG supply disruptions, a METI source said July 11, amid increasing concerns over LNG supply from Russia. METI discussed the idea of “gas saving” measures during a working group under its electricity and gas policy subcommittee July 11, when expert committee members pointed out the need for such emergency measures in the event of Russian LNG supply disruptions. The METI working group intends to compile an interim policy report “as soon as possible” with an eye to implementing the scheme by the winter demand season, the source said. Once implemented, it will be the first of its kind measure for gas usage in Japan, although there are various types and levels of saving measures for electricity use in the country. “As the global LNG procurement environment is increasingly becoming severe, should there be any disruption in [LNG] procurement from long-term contracts, a basic response is to avert any shortage in the supply and demand [balance] by working out the security and procurement of LNG with the maximum possible effort,” METI said in its documents presented at the working group. If there is any tightness in the supply-demand balance for LNG even after efforts to ensure LNG supply security, METI intends to consider introducing a scheme to reduce gas usage via voluntary efforts without hindering consumers’ life and economic activities, as well as the steps to be taken beyond voluntary gas-saving efforts if the situation is still not resolved, according to the documents.
China's first commercial storage handles 10 bcm of natural gas – CGTN --Over 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas has so far been injected into Dazhangtuo, China's first underground commercial gas storage, Xinhua News Agency reported on Sunday. Located in the Binhai New Area, north China's Tianjin, Dazhangtuo was put into operation in 2000. It caters to the peak seasonal demand as well as emergency needs. It has delivered clean energy to Beijing and its surroundings for 22 years. "Ten billion cubic meters of natural gas is equivalent to an annual gas consumption of 50 million households," Wang Jian, a manager at the storage facility, told Xinhua. It is one of the 10 storage facilities in Dagang oilfield natural gas storage cluster owned by China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), one of China's top three oil giants. With a total storage capacity of 7.68 billion cubic meters and working volume of 3.46 billion cubic meters, the cluster is expected to provide 2.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas during winter, CNPC told Xinhua. China's domestic gas output exceeded 200 billion cubic meters for the first time last year, and the target will be 230 billion cubic meters by 2025, the China Economic Weekly said, citing a report released by China's National Development and Reform Commission.
Gas pipelines to be laid across NE states: Teli --Union Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Rameswar Teli on Monday said that gas pipelines would be laid across all the North eastern states. He said the project to lay the gas pipeline would be executed by Indradhanush Gas Grid Ltd (IGGL) which is a joint venture of Indian Oil, ONGC, GAIL, Oil India, and Numaligarh Refinery, “Under this project Meghalaya too is included. This pipeline will extend till Shillong and we want the work to start as soon as possible,” Teli said. Stating that recently tenders for five blocks were invited, the Union Minister however said, Meghalaya was not included but soon tender for the state will also be invited. On a frequent hike in prices of fuel in the country, Teli said is correlated to the increase in the crude oil prices in the international market. “We import 83 percent of oil and gas from abroad and if there is an increase of prices in the international market we also hike the prices of fuel and gas,” he said. Teli also said that the government is trying to explore new petroleum and oil in various parts of the country. “We have come to know that in the Northeast petroleum and gas is available. In Nagaland through exploration, we have found that there is oil and petroleum. We have also come to know that the same is also available in Meghalaya,” Teli said. The central government, he said would soon begin exploration works in the region.“If oil and gas is available within the country we can control its prices,” Teli the Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas said.
India's oil imports from Russia surged 15% through June as it doubled down on cheap energy - Indian imports of Russian oil surged through the month of June as it continued to snap up energy on the cheap. Reuters reported India scooped up 950,000 barrels per day last month, which accounts for almost a fifth of all its imports. India is the world's third biggest oil consumer after China and the United States. India has been an active buyer of Russian oil even after the country invaded Ukraine. Russian crude oil is priced at a huge discount relative to the Brent international benchmark price, following Western sanctions.While Europe and other Western countries have either banned Russian imports or simply avoided it, competitive prices have lured Asian buyers, especially in China and India. The two now account for 50% of Russia's seaborne oil exports, Reuters said. According to Reuters, India's imports from Russia rose 15.5% in June from May. At the same time, its share of oil from Iraq and Saudi Arabia dropped 10.5% and 13.5%, respectively. Russian oil sales to India and China are bringing in huge profits for the country. In May alone, Russia's oil export revenue jumped to $20 billion, taking Moscow's energy earnings to pre-war levels. To that effect, its energy sales are on track to hit $285 billion this year. While Russia revels in its profits however, Western economies have been tremendously suffering as soaring oil and gas prices from reduced supply have triggered high levels of inflation and threats of a recession, specifically in Europe, which is highly dependent on Russia for energy.
Pursuing Its National Interest in the New Multipolar World: India to Boost Sakhalin-1 Oil Output by Jerri-Lynn Scofield -- This week brought yet another key development in India’s pursuit of its national interest in the emerging multipolar world. Russia is nationalizing the interests of U.S. and Japanese shareholders in its Sakhalin-1 oil project, but making an exception to allow India’s OVL to maintain its stake and continue with further work. In addition, there’s speculation that other Indian companies may be invited in to replace the departing U.S. and Japanese concerns.As The Economic Times – India’s pink paper – reported yesterday in India explores to expand footprints in oil fields in far East Russia:[Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)] is deploying additional manpower to play a bigger role in operating the Sakhalin-1 oil field following ExxonMobil’s withdrawal, according to news reports.The company has a 20% stake in this energy project, located in Russia’s Far East.According to reports, ONGC’s overseas investment arm OVL has offered to send more personnel with suitable expertise to partially fill the void, after US energy giant ExxonMobil announced in March its intention to exit oil and gas operations in Russia due to Western sanctions.ONGC also expressed hopes that its stake in the Russian project will not be affected in case of the possible re-organization of Sakhalin-1 by Moscow, just as had happened with the neighboring Sakhalin-2 project. Thus, as the heat and hot water get switched off out across Europe and gas prices climb upward just in time for November’s mid-terms, Indian companies are poised to benefit further from the cack-handed sanctions policy of the U.S.-led alliance. The West is facing the prospect of shuttering businesses while meanwhile Indian companies are jumping in – supported by the Modi government – to take advantage of new opportunities now opening up.
Japan Will Aim to Keep Stake in Russia's Sakhalin-2, Nikkei Says -- Japan will seek to maintain its stake in the Sakhalin-2 natural gas project in Russia’s far east, the Nikkei newspaper said, after President Vladimir Putin signed a decree transferring rights to a new Russian company just over two weeks ago. The decree gave stakeholders a month to say whether they’ll take a holding in the new company. The Japanese government has proposed to trading companies with stakes in the existing operator that they remain as shareholders after the transfer, the paper reported, without saying where it got the information. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with Minister for Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Hagiuda on Friday, the Nikkei said. Hagiuda subsequently told reporters that they had agreed the stake should be maintained. Putin Swoop on Gas Plant Risks Forcing Foreign Partners Out (2) Before the transfer, the project was 27.5% owned by Shell, 12.5% by Mitsui & Co and 10% by Mitsubishi Corp. Japan relies on Russia for about 9% of its LNG, and almost all imports from the nation are Sakhalin-2 supplies. Kishida is pushing for as many as nine of Japan’s nuclear reactors to be operating this winter as the country faces a severe energy crunch.
Oil majors face output slump, deep losses if Russia stops Kazakh pipeline - Western energy majors will cut output and lose billions of dollars if Russia, as is feared, suspends a pipeline that is almost the only export route for oil from land-locked Kazakhstan, company sources, traders and analysts say. The closure of the CPC pipeline that carries oil from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea Russian export terminal in the port of Novorosiisk would shut in more than 1% of global oil supply, exacerbating what is already the most severe energy crunch since the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s. The pipeline, which runs through Russian territory and is owned by a consortium of Western, Asian, Russian and Kazakh companies, has been in the spotlight since Russia on Feb. 24 invaded Ukraine in what Moscow calls a “special military operation”. Last Wednesday, a court in Novorossiisk ordered CPC to suspend operations for 30 days, citing concern about oil spill management. A Russian court on Monday overturned the ruling against CPC and instead fined it 200,000 roubles ($3,300). The sources, however, said they still thought major disruption likely. Pipeline co-owner Russia has said all stoppages are driven by technical issues. Storm damage in March has already interrupted flows through the 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) oil artery, operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Major oil companies, including Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Shell and Italy’s Eni, in addition to several Russian and Kazakh firms have stakes in the CPC. Western companies also hold stakes in Kazakh oilfields. The CPC pipeline is the route for nearly all Kazakh oil exports. Three sources at Western oil companies operating in Kazakhstan, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue, said they expected a prolonged CPC pipeline suspension. One trader at a Western major said such an outage would result in a decline of 50 million tonnes of oil per year (1 million bpd) because land-locked Kazakhstan has limited alternative export routes. Many Western companies have exited operations in Russia, with oil majors among the first to leave in the days after the conflict began. Western sanctions have disrupted Russian exports and pushed up energy prices. In response, Russia made steps towards seizing oil and gas projects Sakhalin 1 and 2, where Shell and Exxon have stakes. A Western executive familiar with CPC operations said Sakhalin was “a definite sign of things to come for CPC”.
Kazakhstan Oil Exporters Relieved as Russian Court Lifts Ban on Pipeline – Pipeline politics continues to grab headlines in Kazakhstan. When a Russian court ordered the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to halt operations, citing administrative violations, on July 6, Kazakhstani exporters wondered how would they send oil to their foreign customers, as 80 percent of the country’s exports travel through the pipeline.Political and business pressure helped reverse the court’s decision on July 11, as the 30-day suspension was re-negotiated into a fine equivalent to just $3,250. The oil industry in Kazakhstan sighed in relief.Built in 2001, the CPC is a semi-private, international pipeline, running from Kazakhstan’s Caspian region to the Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. Its corporate structure is split between two companies, one Kazakhstani and one Russian.The Russian court targeted the documentation regarding the Oil Spill Response Plan of the Russian company, saying the shortcomings represented an environmental threat. The potential one-month suspension of operations at the pipeline – which would have by default involved the Kazakhstani section as well – would have been a massive blow to the government’s budget and the companies’ bottom line. U.S. major Chevron owns 15 percent in CPC. On July 6, the day of the court decision, Chevron’s share price dropped by 3.5 percent on Wall Street..The reversal of the potentially crippling suspension into a symbolic fine on July 11 is perhaps a strong indicator that the pressure on the pipeline is principally political.Just a week before the original sanction, CPC had paid the equivalent of $86.3 million in environmental fines for a 2021 spill in Russia.Environmental damage claims are among the preferred methods of political pressure on hydrocarbon companies and projects. Both the Russian and the Kazakhstani governments have used environmental fines to extract additional revenue from oil and gas consortia or to acquire stakes in the projects.This was the case for the Kashagan offshore oilfield in Kazakhstan’s section of the Caspian Sea in the first decade of the 2000s. The same applied in 2012, when an environmental fine was turned into the sale of a stake in theKarachaganak gas and condensate field in northern Kazakhstan. The rocky relations and public frictions between Russia and Kazakhstan since the start of the war in Ukraine have undoubtedly contributed to the acrimonious management of the issues concerning CPC. In March, a storm allegedly caused massive disruptions at the pipeline’s marine terminal; now the Russian court system essentially flexed its muscles, touting a disruption that would choke Kazakhstan’s main export vector. The old Russian route from Atyrau to Samara could only pump a maximum of 15 million tons per year, which pales in comparison to the 65 million tons that CPC can pump. Still, the Russian route remains the most economically viable as the pipeline to China can only carry 10 million tons of Kazakhstani oil (another 10 million tons are booked by Russian suppliers through the Kazakhstani pipeline system) and its expansion via rail would entail massive transportation costs, according to industry specialists.
Hedge funds bet on Brazil oil and gas output surging 122%— Hedge funds and other investors looking to cash in on Brazil’s surging oil and gas output are turning to a new breed of drillers as an alternative to turmoil-wracked Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the state-owned producer that’s had four CEOs since early 2019. Gerval Investimentos, the family office for the controlling shareholders of steelmaker Gerdau SA, is among the asset managers backing so-called junior producers. Last month, it doubled its holdings in 3R Petroleum Oleo e Gas SA — a company with less than a 60th of the market value of Petrobras, as the government-owned oil giant is known — to about 12%. Among others betting on the space are hedge funds Atalaya Capital, Vinland Capital, Mar Asset Management and XP Asset Management. With crude prices still near a lofty $100 a barrel after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred sanctions and strangled global supplies, drillers like 3R Petroleum offer a new way to wager on soaring output from Brazil — a country that’s set to add more production through 2026 than any other outside of the US and OPEC. Since 2019, Petrobras has sold off more than 100 oil and gas fields to about a dozen junior companies, some created specifically to buy those assets. While the state-owned producer is still Brazil’s biggest by far, its CEOs have come under fire from President Jair Bolsonaro as he tries to tackle high fuel prices. The recent management shakeups and the threat of more upheaval in an election year have some oil investors looking elsewhere. They see massive profit potential in the juniors, which promise to deliver substantial increases in output from fields long neglected by Petrobras. Brazil’s oil regulator, ANP, says production from those assets will jump 122% by 2025 after eight years of declines. “Brazilian oil juniors are good investment alternatives,'' said Marcos Peixoto, a Sao Paulo-based portfolio manager at XP Asset Management. “These firms are poised for significant output growth and shares look attractive even assuming a scenario of lower oil prices.'” Until 1997, when its official monopoly ended, Petrobras was the sole oil and gas producer in Brazil. Even today, the Brazilian Independent Oil and Gas Producers Association has only 19 members, compared with about 9,000 independent drillers in the US. But with money flowing in from investors, juniors are expected to account for 8.8% of Brazil’s production by 2024, up from 7.2% currently, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie.
Libya to reopen oil fields and export terminals after reaching deal with protestors— Libya’s government, National Oil Corp. and protesters have reached an agreement to reopen oil fields and export terminals, officials said. The agreement will be announced later on Friday, the officials said, asking not the be named because the information isn’t public. The deal follows a pledge from the new head of Libya’s National Oil Corp. to end a blockade and double crude production to 1.2 million barrels a day within a week. Libya, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has seen its production plummet by about 50% in recent months due to a power struggle between rival governments, while chronic under-investment in infrastructure has also curtailed output. The slump has exacerbated a supply shortage in oil markets, putting upward pressure on prices that have added to inflation across the globe. “The first step I will take is to return to previous oil production rates before the closure, and it will be within a week,” NOC Chairman Farhat bin Qadara said in an interview with Bloomberg, hours after replacing long-serving oil boss Mustafa Sanalla. Libya’s energy facilities have been at the heart of the nation’s political conflicts, with different groups shutting down oil output for various political and economic demands. In the most recent incident, protesters pressed for the dismissal of Sanalla. A rift between Sanalla and the oil ministry that was reinstated by the Tripoli-based government of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah last year has been another major source of uncertainty.
Libya lifts exports production ban on all oil fields and ports -- LIBYA’S government, National Oil Corp (NOC) and protesters have reached an agreement to reopen oil fields and export terminals, officials said on Friday (Jul 15). The deal was announced at a press conference in Benghazi and follows a pledge from the new head of Libya’s NOC to end a blockade and double crude production to 1.2 million barrels a day within a week. Libya, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has seen its production plummet by about 50 per cent in recent months due to a power struggle between rival governments, while chronic under-investment in infrastructure has also curtailed output. The slump has exacerbated a supply shortage in oil markets, putting upward pressure on prices that has added to inflation across the globe. “The first step I will take is to return to previous oil production rates before the closure, and it will be within a week,” NOC Chairman Farhat bin Qadara said in an interview with Bloomberg, hours after replacing long-serving oil boss Mustafa Sanalla. Libya’s energy facilities have been at the heart of the nation’s political conflicts, with different groups shutting down oil output for various political and economic demands. In the most recent incident, protesters pressed for the dismissal of Sanalla. A rift between Sanalla and the oil ministry that was reinstated by the Tripoli-based government of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah last year has been another major source of uncertainty. Oil Minister Mohamed Oun has repeatedly called on Dbeibah to oust Sanalla, trying without success to unseat him at least once over the past year. Dbeibah finally decided to replace him, and a government force was sent to NOC headquarters on Wednesday to install the new board. Sanalla refused to leave and argued in a televised speech in the evening that Dbeibah’s government lacked legitimacy. In a video circulated on social media on Thursday, employees were seen rallying at the entrance of the headquarters to prevent members of the handover commission from entering. Later, Bin Qadara was able to enter the building with a government force, and Sanalla left.
Saudi Arabia agrees to increase oil production levels, will help 'stabilize markets,' White House says - The White House on Friday said Saudi Arabia has committed to increasing oil production in July and August—a move that will help "stabilize markets considerably." The commitment from Saudi Arabia came after bilateral meetings between President Biden and administration officials and King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Said and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as Saudi Ministers. "Saudi Arabia has committed to support global oil market balancing for sustained economic growth," the White House said. "We have welcomed the increase in production levels 50 percent above what was planned for July and August." "These steps and further steps that we anticipate over the coming weeks have and will help stabilize markets considerably," the White House said. Also in the meetings, the White House said Biden welcomed the singing of a bilateral Partnership Framework for Advancing Clean Energy, with new Saudi investments to "accelerate the energy transition and combat the effects of climate change." The White House said the framework "focuses particularly on solar, green hydrogen, nuclear, and other clean energy initiatives." "By building upon existing collaboration between energy experts in our countries, we seek to enhance our efforts to tackle climate change and advance greater deployment of clean energy resources around the world," the White House said, noting the partnership "will leverage public and private sector collaboration to advance the deployment of clean energy solutions while accelerating research, development, and demonstration of innovative technologies needed to decarbonize the global economy and achieve net-zero emissions."
US not expecting Saudi Arabia to immediately boost oil output -— The United States does not expect Saudi Arabia to immediately boost oil output and awaits the outcome of an Opec+ meeting on August 3, the US national security adviser said yesterday, lowering expectations as US President Joe Biden visits the kingdom. “I don’t think you should expect a particular announcement here bilaterally because we believe any further action taken to ensure that there is sufficient energy to protect the health of the global economy, it will be done in the context of Opec+,” Jake Sullivan said. Earlier yesterday, a US official had also told Reuters that Washington was not expecting any immediate output rise as a result of the visit. Biden landed in Jeddah yesterday on a trip that is designed to reset the US relationship with the kingdom and during which energy supply, human rights and security cooperation are on the agenda. The US could secure a commitment that Opec+ will boost production in the months ahead, which could send a signal to the market that supplies are coming if necessary. Saudi Arabia, alongside the United Arab Emirates, holds the bulk of spare capacity within the Opec+ group, an alliance between the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters, notably Russia. Soon after his landing, Biden met and shook hands with the Saudi king and held a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other ministers, including energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. But the kingdom has repeatedly indicated it would not act unilaterally. O Brent crude prices are trading around US$100 (RM444.90) a barrel, having fallen from a 14-year high of US$139.13 in March as investors weigh the impact on demand of Covid-19 lockdowns in top importer China and recession fears. “Saudi Arabia prefers to manage the market through the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers (Opec+), not through unilateral moves,”
Biden to end Middle East trip with no announcement on increasing oil supply— President Joe Biden will leave the Middle East this week with no announcements on increasing oil supply before a scheduled meeting of producers next month, people familiar with the matter said. Biden, who came to office vowing to turn the world’s biggest oil exporter into a “pariah” over the 2018 killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, said he decided to make the trip to advance US interests and try and curb soaring gasoline prices, which have hurt him politically ahead of mid-term elections. Biden heads to Saudi Arabia from Israel later on Friday, where he’ll meet with King Salman bin Abdulaziz and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the nation’s de-facto ruler. He will meet other leaders from the oil-exporting Persian Gulf on Saturday. Officials from the US and Saudi governments have been in close contact on the issue of energy markets, and discussions will continue regarding output from members of the OPEC+ cartel, one of the people said, asking not to be named because the deliberations aren’t public. Biden officials privately say agreements have been reached but no details will be announced until the next scheduled meetings of OPEC+ next month. “I don’t think you should expect a particular announcement here bilaterally because we believe any further action taken to ensure that there is sufficient energy to protect the health of the global economy will be done in the context of OPEC+,” Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, told reporters on the flight to Jeddah.
Saudi Arabia doubles Q2 Russian fuel oil imports for power generation - - Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, more than doubled the amount of Russian fuel oil it imported in the second quarter to feed power stations to meet summer cooling demand and free up the kingdom’s own crude for export, data showed and traders said. Russia has been selling fuel at discounted prices after international sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine left it with fewer buyers. Moscow calls the war in Ukraine a "special military operation". The increased sales of fuel oil, used in power generation, to Saudi Arabia show the challenge that US President Joe Biden faces as his administration seeks to isolate Russia and cut its energy export revenues. While many countries have banned or discouraged purchases from Russia, China, India and several African and Middle Eastern nations have increased imports. Biden is due to visit Saudi Arabia later this week, when he is expected to seek an increase in oil supply to global markets from the kingdom to help lower oil prices that have aggravated inflation worldwide. There is little spare capacity for Saudi and others to increase production in the short term. Saudi Arabia has also maintained its cooperation with Russia in the alliance of global producers known as OPEC+. The two are the de facto leaders of respectively OPEC and non-OPEC producers in that group. Data obtained by Reuters through Refinitiv Eikon ship tracking showed Saudi Arabia imported 647,000 tonnes (48,000 barrels per day) of fuel oil from Russia via Russian and Estonian ports in April-June this year. That was up from 320,000 tonnes in the same period a year ago. For the full year 2021, Saudi Arabia imported 1.05 million tonnes of Russian fuel oil.
OPEC sees global oil demand reaching 102.99 mil b/d in 2023 | S&P Global Commodity Insights --OPEC continued to project strengthening oil demand growth for the rest of this year, providing the producer bloc and its allies support to keep increasing supplies as many countries seek alternatives to Russian fuel after its invasion of Ukraine. OPEC's analysts kept 2022 oil demand at 100.29 million b/d, up 3.36 million b/d from 2021, in the organization's closely watched monthly oil market report released July 12. In its first forecast for 2023, OPEC sees demand rising another 2.70 million b/d to 102.99 million b/d for the year, with the 100 million b/d mark exceeding throughout the year. The data come as OPEC, Russia and allies are aiming to restore output to prepandemic levels by August. The increased supplies have not been enough for a few consuming countries, including the US, which has repeatedly called on the producer group to supply more crude oil. US President Joe Biden is scheduled for a trip to Saudi Arabia July 14-16 for a meeting with Persian Gulf leaders, and the oil market is expected to be a subject of discussion. "Oil demand in 2023 is expected to be supported by a still solid economic performance in major consuming countries, as well as improved geopolitical developments and containment of COVID-19 in China," OPEC said. The projection of world GDP growth of 3.2% in 2023 "assumes that the ramifications of the pandemic, geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and global financial tightening amid rising inflation do not negatively impact the 2023 growth dynamic to a major degree." For 2023, gasoline and diesel are expected to lead oil demand growth. Jet fuel will continue to recover as domestic and international travel picks up while business travel continues to lag, according to OPEC. Light distillates will be supported by capacity additions including NGLs plants in the US, propane dehydration plants in China and steady petrochemicals margins, it said, repeating the same outlook it gave for light distillates for 2022. While non-OPEC liquids production is forecast to climb 1.71 million b/d in 2023, OPEC's NGLs and non-conventional output is set to increase only 50,000 b/d compared with 110,000 b/d in 2022, the analysis showed.
OPEC Remains 1 Million Bpd Below Target - The ten OPEC producers in the OPEC+ pact pumped 24.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, OPEC data showed on Tuesday, with production falling 1 million bpd short of the target levels. All 13 OPEC members produced 28.716 million bpd in June, up by 234,000 bpd from May, according to secondary sources used by OPEC to track production in itsMonthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). The 10 producers in the OPEC+ pact, however, produced 24.8 million bpd, which was 1 million bpd below OPEC’s own target of 25.864 million bpd for the ten members for June. Iran, Libya, and Venezuela are exempted from the production pact. Libya saw the biggest decline in output in June, as its production fell to below 1 million bpd in each of the months in the second quarter due to continued unrest, protests, and port blockades.Top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia naturally raised its crude oil production by the most in June compared to May. Yet, per OPEC’s secondary sources, even the Saudis were lagging behind their quota for June. Saudi Arabia’s oil production rose by 159,000 bpd to 10.585 million bpd, OPEC said. To compare, the Saudi target was 10.663 million bpd, so the Kingdom was 78,000 bpd below its quota last month using secondary source figures. But Saudi Arabia self-reported to OPEC that its production figures were indeed in line with its target—10.646 million bpd.The UAE, the only other OPEC producer apart from Saudi Arabia believed to have spare capacity to boost production—slightly exceeded its target as it produced 3.083 million bpd, versus a 3.075 million bpd quota.Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, was 75,000 bpd below its target, according to OPEC’s secondary sources. The biggest laggard for several months has been Nigeria. Its oil production averaged 1.238 million bpd in June, while its quota was 1.772 million bpd.This month and next, the targets for the OPEC-10 are even higher as OPEC+decided to accelerate the rollback of the cuts and have those completely unwound by the end of August. Saudi Arabia has a 10.833 million bpd target for July, and 11 million bpd for August.
Oil Price Crash Undermines OPEC's Optimistic Demand Forecast - Global oil demand is expected to slow down from 3.36 million bpd of growth this year to a growth of 2.7 million bpd in 2023, OPEC said on Tuesday in its first demand estimates for next year. These demand estimates appear particularly optimistic on Tuesday morning as concerns about an economic slowdown and renewed Covid lockdowns in China sent oil prices crashing by more than 7%.Solid economic growth in major consuming countries, improved geopolitical developments, and containment of COVID outbreaks in China are set to support global oil demand in 2023, the cartel said in its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) published today.Although the annual pace of growth is expected to slow to 2.7 million bpd next year from 3.36 million bpd this year, total world demand in 2023 is expected to average a record high at 103 million bpd, up from 100.29 million bpd expected for 2022. Currently, OPEC sees global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2023 at as high as 105.4 million bpd.OPEC assumes that the global economy will grow in 2023 and that COVID, the war in Ukraine, or monetary policy tightening will not impact economic growth “to a major degree.” OPEC’s estimates of global oil demand also assume that major economies revert back towards growth.“Nevertheless, uncertainty to the forecast remain to the downside, with much depending on the course of the pandemic and related measures, global financial tightening in the light of growing inflation, and the resolution of the ongoing geo-political issues in Eastern Europe,” OPEC said.Last month, in its first outlook for 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that oil demand growth was set to accelerate next year, with global demand averaging a record 101.6 million bpd and exceeding pre-COVID levels.“While higher prices and a weaker economic outlook are moderating consumption increases, a resurgent China will drive gains next year, with growth accelerating from 1.8 mb/d in 2022 to 2.2 mb/d in 2023,” the IEA said in its Oil Market Reportfor June.In terms of supply, OPEC said today it expects U.S. liquids production growth of 1.1 million bpd in 2023, mainly from crude in the Permian and non-conventional natural gas liquids (NGLs).
Recession Fears Can't Curb The Commodity Boom - Last week, Brent crude fell below $100 per barrel for the first time in months. So did West Texas Intermediate. Copper dropped to the lowest in almost two years. It looked like inflation had done its evil deed. A recession was coming, and demand for commodities was about to plunge. And then both oil and copper rebounded. It lasted all of one day, although the price of copper has been fluctuating with the flow of news from China and the prospects of its economy for the rest of the year and the medium term. The latest copper price rebound was, in fact, attributed by some to the possibility that the Chinese government would provide additional stimulus to keep the economy going at a healthy pace.The rebound in oil, however, was easy to see coming despite the notorious uncertainty of oil markets. And the reason it was easy to see coming was fundamentals. Whatever happens in the speculative market, the fact that the global supply of oil is tight while demand is very much alive and still rising cannot be ignored.The Financial Times out it quite clearly. In an article from earlier this week addressing the price drop across commodities, the authors said that “Hedge funds have been central to the recent price declines across commodities — selling out of long, or positive, positions in certain commodities and often replacing them with bearish wagers.”If the big scare of 2020 and 2021 was Covid, this year has two: Russia’s Vladimir Putin and recession. And it is increasingly looking like the latter is overtaking the former in terms of scare value.Talk about recession is all over the news. Central banks are being targeted with criticism for tightening monetary policy too fast, accelerating recessionary pressure. It was only a matter of time before hedge funds decided to play it safe and start selling out. But, and this is the important bit, this has nothing to do with fundamentals. Fundamentals are why oil was up a day after the dip.Just how much nothing market price movements have to do with actual demand and supply sometimes was recently highlighted by Wells Fargo. According to the bank’s investment strategy division, the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, is already in a recession.“There’s the technical part of the recession, but then there’s the meaningful deterioration in consumption and employment,” Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s senior global market strategist Sameer Samana told Bloomberg this week. “The technical part is a first half story and the brunt of the unemployment and consumption is the second-half,”
Yellen says price cap on Russian oil is 'one of our most powerful tools' to address inflation— A cap on Russian oil prices will be crucial to help bring down inflation as U.S. consumer inflation soared to a 40-year high of 9.1% this week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday. Speaking before the start of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Bali, Yellen said efforts must be expended to rein in two key economic fallouts from the Russia-Ukraine crisis — that is, high fuel prices and rising food insecurity which are sweeping across the U.S. and globally. High energy costs contributed heavily to the spike in U.S. inflation this week, she added. "We're seeing negative spillover effects from [the Russia-Ukraine] war in every corner of the world, particularly with respect to higher energy prices, and rising food insecurity," Yellen said. A price cap on Russian oil is one of our most powerful tools to address the pain that Americans and families across the world are feeling at the gas pump and the grocery store right now. She said the U.S. will continue conversations with other countries to see "what we can do together to help others around the world impacted by Russia's war." It includes addressing food insecurity, and the design and implementation of a price cap on Russian oil, she added. "A price cap on Russian oil is one of our most powerful tools to address the pain that Americans and families across the world are feeling at the gas pump and the grocery store right now. A limit on the price of Russian oil will deny Putin revenue his war machine needs." As Washington bans Russian oil and European countries look to cut Russian oil use, prices of oil have surged. Crude oil prices rose above $120 a barrel in March after the Russia-Ukraine war started. Economists have warned that further bans could propel prices to as high as $175 a barrel.
Putting a price cap on Russian oil won't solve energy supply issues, Indonesian minister says - Capping Russian oil prices won't solve the world's energy problems, said Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati on Friday. Prices are high because demand outstrips supply, which has been disrupted, and a price ceiling will not resolve that, she said. "Putting a cap definitely is not going to solve the problem, because it is about the quantity which is not adequate, comparing to the demand which is in place," she told CNBC's Martin Soong at the Group of 20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Bali, Indonesia. As the U.S. and European nations move toward winter, demand for energy will increase further, she added. Her comments came a day after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a price cap is "one of our most powerful tools" to fight inflation. The U.S. and other G-7 countries are considering a cap on Russia's oil prices in a bid to limit funds flowing into the Kremlin's war chest while lowering the cost of energy for consumers. But analysts have questioned whether such a plan would work, since Russia could choose not to sell at the price set by the U.S. and its allies. In addition, countries such as India and China, which have been snapping up oil from Russia, may not agree to the price cap.
OPEC's First 2023 Outlook Shows No Relief for Oil Market Squeeze - OPEC’s first oil-market outlook for 2023 suggests no relief for squeezed consumers, with more crude needed from the group even though most members are already pumping flat out. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expects global oil demand growth to exceed the increase in supplies by 1 million barrels a day next year. To fill the gap, OPEC would need to significantly hike production, but members are already falling far behind the volumes needed right now due to underinvestment and political instability. For the latest headlines, follow our Google News channel online or via the app. ADVERTISING Crude prices are holding above $100 a barrel as the world’s oil fields and refining facilities fail to keep pace with the post-pandemic rebound in fuel demand. That’s exacerbating a cost-of-living crisis and threatening to tip the global economy into recession. President Joe Biden is urging Middle East producers to ease the crisis by opening the taps. He will visit the region this week with a planned stop in OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, but many analysts expect Gulf exporters to ration their remaining spare production capacity carefully. If Biden does persuade Riyadh and the neighboring United Arab Emirates to provide some extra supply, the move will likely be formalized at the next meeting of OPEC and its partners on Aug. 3, according to RBC Capital Markets LLC. The report published by OPEC’s Vienna-based research department on Tuesday indicates the supply crunch will persist. Global demand will expand by 2.7 million barrels a day next year, bolstered by growth in emerging economies, while supplies outside OPEC will increase by 1.7 million a day, according to the cartel’s analysis. Gasoline and diesel fuel will drive the growth in consumption. To balance supply and demand, OPEC would need to provide an average of 30.1 million barrels a day in 2023. That’s 1.38 million a day more than the cartel’s 13 nations pumped in June. OPEC has been reviving production halted during the pandemic, with a final tranche scheduled for next month. Yet the group is pumping well below its collective target because nations such as Angola and Nigeria have seen their capacity eroded by insufficient investment and operational problems. Troubled member Libya has suffered a collapse in its production collapse amid renewed political unrest. Because of this supply shortfall, fuel inventories in industrialized nations are shrinking rapidly, dropping to 312 million barrels below the five-year average in May. OPEC’s assessment of 2023 fits in with the prevailing view across the petroleum industry, with the Paris-based International Energy Agency -- which represents consuming nations -- also predicting that supplies will remain under strain.
Explaining The Disconnect Between Physical And Paper Oil Markets - A couple of days ago, Saudi Arabia shocked oil punters after it hiked oil prices for its biggest market, Asia, in the middle of one of the biggest oil crashes this year. State producer Saudi Aramco hiked its key Arab Light crude grade for Asian customers by $2.80 a barrel from July's level to a premium of $9.30 a barrel over the regional Oman/Dubai quotes, bringing it just shy of the record $9.35 a barrel premium seen in May. The increase in the country's official selling price (OSP) came just hours before the futures market went into a tailspin, with Brent and WTI both crashing nearly 10% on Tuesday. Indeed, benchmark Brent futures have slumped 11.3% just two days after the price hike, ostensibly on weak demand and recession fears.On a certain level, Saudi Arabia's 'mad' decision to hike prices in this environment appears to make sense.After all, refining margins have gone amok, with the profit from making a barrel of gasoil at a typical Singapore refinery hitting an all-time high of $68.69 on June 24. Although the margin has since retreated to $41.80 a barrel at the close on Wednesday, it's still almost 4x higher than the $11.83 at the end of last year, and a staggering 550% above the profit margin at the same time in 2021.But the fact that the physical market for crude (bullish) doesn't seem to match the futures market (bearish) suggests there is a serious disconnect between the two.At this juncture, it's important to make the distinction between the physical market for crude and the crude futures market.Physical (also known as cash) market prices are determined by the supply and demand for physical crude. Here traders buy oil from the producer and sell it to the refiner for immediate delivery. Physical buyers and sellers have a direct pulse on the market and may feel immediately when it is well supplied, or not.Futures prices, on the other hand, are determined by the supply and demand for crude futures positions. Futures markets provide traders with a means to bet on crude prices at certain points in the future, and also allows physical market participants to hedge their position and, therefore, minimize risk. The ongoing disconnect between physical crude and futures markets can mainly be pinned on worsening fears of a serious economic slowdown that might curtail oil demand. Months of dwindling liquidity, alongside heavy technical selling as well as hedging activity by oil producers, have all contributed to the oil futures selloff. However, the biggest driver has been concern about a possible recession and an overly hawkish Fed, which have served to undermine the idea of oil prices being a means of hedging against inflation. Saudi Aramco does not disclose the pricing formula that it employs to set its OSPs; however, experts think it's a fairly technical process that takes into account refining margins, the relative price between Oman/Dubai and Brent, and the actual volumes being sought by refining customers.The big problem with using a technical process to determine your OSP as the Saudis do is that the price cannot quickly adapt to the highly unusual circumstances in the current global oil market.Lower Brent prices will encourage refiners in Asia that can easily switch crude grades to buy more oil from suppliers such as West African producers, including Angola and Nigeria, that price against the global benchmark. Further, Asian refiners that have no qualms about buying highly discounted Russian Urals will also jump ship, thus leaving Saudi crude and the Middle East grades that price against it less desirable.
Oil steadies as China COVID fears face tight supply concerns (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Monday as markets balanced an expected drop in demand due to mass testing for COVID-19 in China against ongoing concerns over tight supply. Brent futures for September delivery gained 8 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $107.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 70 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $104.09. With the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to keep raising interest rates, open interest in New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures CL-TOT fell on July 7 to its lowest since October 2015 as investors cut back on risky assets. Last week, oil speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchanges to their lowest since April 2020. “The oil market is being pulled in two directions with exceedingly tight physical fundamentals set against forward-looking demand concerns and signs of price-induced demand destruction,” analysts at EBW Analytics said in a note. The market was rattled earlier in the session by news that China had discovered its first case of a highly transmissible Omicron subvariant in Shanghai that could lead to another round of mass testing, which would hurt fuel demand. Also putting pressure on oil was a rise in the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies to its highest since October 2002. A stronger dollar reduces demand for oil by making the fuel more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Euro zone finance ministers said the fight against inflation was the current priority despite dwindling growth in the bloc, as they were informed of a deteriorating economic outlook by the European Commission. The market remains jittery about plans by Western nations to cap Russian oil prices, with Russian President Vladimir Putin warning that further sanctions could lead to “catastrophic” consequences in the global energy market. JP Morgan said the market was caught between concern over a potential halt to Russian supplies and a possible recession. “Macro risks are becoming more two-sided. A 3 million barrel (bbl) per day retaliatory reduction in Russian oil exports is a credible threat and if realized will drive Brent crude oil prices to roughly $190/bbl,” the bank said in a note. “On the other hand, the impact of substantially lower demand growth under recessionary scenarios would see the Brent crude oil price averaging around $90/bbl under a mild recession and $78/bbl under a scenario of a more severe downturn.” Questions also remain about how long more crude will flow from Kazakhstan via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Supply has continued so far on the pipeline, which carries about 1% of global oil, with a Russian court overturning an earlier ruling suspending operations there.
Oil tumbles towards $100, as renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in China and recession fears depress demand outlook Crude oil extended losses on Tuesday, with the global benchmark tumbling towards $100 a barrel, as COVID-19 lockdowns in China and recession worries take center stage. Brent crude futures were last down 2.25% $1.04.68. while WTI crudefell 2.47% to $101.32 a barrel. The slide in oil prices stems from a combination of both demand and supply-side pressures that have come into play recently. In China, about 30 million people have been placed under strict lockdown rules after the country reported 352 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, per Bloomberg. The virus flare-up has forced the country to impose lockdown restrictions in at least six cities to curb the infection from spreading, and oil is paying the price for it as restrictions tear away at demand. "A rise in Covid cases in Shanghai will not be helping sentiment, particularly given that China continues to pursue its zero-Covid policy, which creates a fair amount of demand risk for the market," ING strategist Warren Patterson said.Meanwhile, concerns that the US and Europe may soon slump into a recession are growing as both regions suffer from soaring inflation and high interest rates as energy prices surge. "Markets remain torn between recession fears in the US, Europe, and China torpedoing growth and thus, oil consumption, and the still very tight supply/demand reality of the physical market," OANDA market analyst Jeffrey Halley said. Other factors that have added to the bearishness in oil include the halt in flows of Russian natural gas to parts of Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which is undergoing seasonal maintenance. French minister Bruno Le Maire is one of a number of European leaders that have expressed concern that the shutdown could become permanent as Russia finds ways to retaliate against Western sanctions.
Oil Futures Slump on Fear of China Lockdown, EU Recession -- Oil futures fell sharply on Tuesday amid a one-two punch of a fresh COVID-19 resurgence in China, unnerving investors over another demand-sapping lockdown in the world's second-largest economy, and considerable deterioration in the economic outlook for the Eurozone after the start of annual maintenance on Nord Stream 1 -- the single largest pipeline carrying Russian gas into continental Europe exacerbated concerns over an energy crisis, further weakening the euro against U.S. dollar. An economic survey out of Germany, the Eurozone's largest economy, showed a remarkable deterioration in business activity across energy-intensive and export-oriented industries in July. Index of expectations for the next six months has fallen to -53.8 from -28 in the previous month, with experts citing inadequate energy supplies behind the sudden drop in economic activity. Germany reported its first monthly trade deficit since 1991 at the end of the second quarter as manufacturers struggled to absorb surging costs for imports and softer demand for their products in Asia. Germany has greenlighted the restart of 10 coal-fired power plants this month because of concerns over Russia's intentions, particularly after Moscow reduced gas flows through Nord Stream 1 by 60% since the beginning of the invasion. Recession concerns are weighing heavily on the euro, which neared parity with the U.S. dollar in index trading for the first time since 2002. The U.S. dollar index traded 0.41% higher at 108.270 in early index trade Tuesday, with the euro eroding further to 1.00625. With uncertainly skewed to the downside, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in its Monthly Oil Market Report released this morning downgraded its second quarter demand projections to 98.33 million bpd from 99.33 million bpd seen in the first quarter. For the year, however, global oil demand growth is projected to remain unchanged from the previous month's assessment at 3.4 million bpd... Further weighing on the complex, outbreak of Omicron subvariant BA.5 in China raised the threat of another government clampdown on economic activity in Asia's largest economy. More than 2,300 locally transmitted cases have been reported nationwide in the past seven days, with infections again on the rise in the commercial and manufacturing powerhouse of Shanghai, a city of 26 million. Compounding fears over more lockdowns, bank runs are being reported across China that are further fueling anxiety over the world's second-largest economy, with protests emerging in the communist country after depositors were unable to withdraw their funds. Video on Twitter shows a throng of men in white and black violently storming a large gathering of protestors seeking the return of their deposits. Near 7:30 AM ET, NYMEX August West Texas Intermediate futures fell below $100 bbl, down $4.76, and ICE August Brent futures started the session more than $4 bbl lower at $102.65 bbl. NYMEX August RBOB futures plummeted 15.86 cents to $3.3034 gallon, while August ULSD futures declined 9.89 cents to $3.6692 gallon.
China Lockdowns Stoke Recession Fears As Oil Plummets Almost 8% - Analysts in the previous session remarked that sentiment remains sour within the crude market sector, and this proved again true on Tuesday with recession fears causing oil prices to plummet to a three-month low. Specifically, a combination of dwindling liquidity and ongoing concern over China reacting to a handful of new Covid cases by restricting travel and closing businesses yet again resulted in West Texas Intermediate shedding almost 8 percent to settle under $96 per barrel for the first time since early April. Brent settled $7.61, or 7.1 percent lower, at $99.49 per barrel, its lowest since April 11; WTI plummeted $8.25, or 7.9 percent, at $95.84. Since their peak this year in March, Brent and WTI have declined 29 and 27 percent respectively. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, pointed out that, "The decimation of other commodities has also reduced risk appetite for crude even in a supply-constrained market." Recession fears have caused hedge funds and other money managers to sell the equivalent of 110 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the week to July 5. And yet, the idea of demand destruction remains purely hypothetical: Tuesday also saw premiums for North Sea oil bid at the highest since at least 2008, a solid show of strength, while Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said nations "might not have seen the worst" of the global energy crunch. Additionally, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a report released on Tuesday that it expects global oil demand growth to exceed the increase in supplies by 1 million barrels a day next year. The cartel went on to forecast that global demand will expand by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, bolstered by growth in emerging economies, while supplies outside OPEC will increase by 1.7 million bpd. The report also stated that, "In 2023 expectations for healthy global economic growth amidst improvements in geopolitical developments, combined with expected improvements in the containment of COVID-19 in China, are expected to boost consumption of oil."
WTI Holds Big Losses After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Builds -Oil prices tumbled to 3-month lows on the back of China's renewed lockdowns (demand) and anxiety over tomorrow's US CPI print, which has prompted hedge funds to reduce exposure dramatically into what appears more and more a binary outcome.“The volatility in commodity markets increases the stakes for putting money to work,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “The decimation of other commodities has also reduced risk appetite for crude even in a supply-constrained market.”A surging dollar is also acting as a headwind for oil bulls.For now, traders are watching API's inventory data for any signal that could break WTI's technical levels...API
- Crude +4.762mm (+1.4mm exp)
- Cushing +298k
- Gasoline +2.927mm (-200k exp)
- Distillates +3.262mm (+900k exp)
API reported inventory builds across both crude and products along with another rise in stocks at Cushing... WTI hovered around $95.75 ahead of the API data, just above its 200DMA... WTI dipped a little on the print then rebounded to unchanged on the data - holding the big losses on the day...
Crudes Gain Ahead of CPI After IEA Warns of Energy Squeeze -- After Tuesday's sell-off triggered by recession fears in the Eurozone and persistent inflation in the United States, West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange rebounded higher in overnight trade after the International Energy Agency trimmed its 2022 and 2023 demand projections only modestly, citing a stronger-than-expected rebound in China and emerging markets, while warning that ongoing risks to the supply side will keep the physical market tight for the foreseeable future. Although high fuel prices have started to dent demand in Europe and the U.S., global oil consumption is still expected to grow by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 2.1 million bpd in 2023, according to estimates from the Paris-based IEA. The driver behind the resiliency is a stronger-than-expected demand rebound in emerging and developing economies led by China as it starts to emerge from COVID-19 lockdowns. It must be noted, however, that persistent COVID-19 flare-ups coupled with China's "zero-COVID" policy stand to undermine this optimistic scenario. China's nationwide seven-day average infections climbed by 2,300 -- the fastest pace since May. In Europe, it's difficult to see how a recession can be avoided as geopolitical tensions with Russia ratchet up that are worsening a growing trade deficit and surging inflation that reached a record-high 8.6% in June. Forecasts for both inflation and economic growth across the Eurozone are being rapidly revised as EU prepares itself for the potential total cutoff of Russian gas supplies. On the supply side, IEA revised slightly higher its oil production estimates for the remainder of the year due to Russia's surprisingly strong performance. The agency raised 2022 Russia oil output forecast by 240,000 bpd to 10.61 million bpd. While world oil production is expected to grow by roughly 1.8 million bpd through December, rising short-term risks to oil output in Kazakhstan, Libya, and elsewhere have put the spotlight on spare capacity, which now is held primarily by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Their combined buffer could fall to just 2.2 million bpd in August with the full phase out of record OPEC+ cuts. IEA warned that global oil inventories remain critically low, with recent builds concentrated in China, where refiners reduced runs due to weaker demand amid COVID lockdowns. As an EU embargo on Russian oil is set to come into full force at the end of the year, the oil market may tighten once again. U.S. dollar pulled back slightly from a fresh 20-year high 108.420 reached Tuesday overnight, trading 0.13% lower against a basket of foreign currencies. WTI August contract gained $0.73 to trade near $96.50 bbl. U.S. crude benchmark nosedived $8.25 bbl on Tuesday for one of the largest one-day declines of the year. International crude benchmark Brent for September edged back above $100 bbl, up $0.59. NYMEX August RBOB futures declined 3.34 cents to $3.2312 gallon, while front-month ULSD advanced than 6 cents to $3.7323 gallon.
WTI Shrugs Off Large Inventory Builds, Gasoline Demand Tumbles --Oil prices are flat this morning, after bouncing back from some ugliness overnight, hovering around unchanged from last night's surprise API-reported inventory builds across the board. This morning's US CPI report prompted some volatility but that was quickly rejected.Recent weakness in oil prices has reflected Chinese cities imposing more lockdowns and curbs on movement to try to contain the spread of the latest highly contagious Omicron variant and has also been hindered by a strong dollar.A worsening macroeconomic outlook and fears of recession are weighing on market sentiment, while there are ongoing risks on the supply side. For now, weaker-than-expected oil demand growth in advanced economies and resilient Russian supply has loosened headline balances," the IEA said in its influential Monthly Oil Market Report.For now, the machines are watching for demand destruction, targeting that 200DMA technical level for WTI ($93.32)... DOE
- Crude +3.254mm (+1.4mm exp)
- Cushing +316k
- Gasoline +5.825mm (-200k exp)
- Distillates +2.668mm (+900k exp)
After API reported across-the-board inventory builds (and sizable ones too), the official DOE data confirmed with even larger product builds... The one big caveat to this seemingly big build is that crude stockpiles including the release from the strategic reserve actually contracted by 3.63 million barrels. The big question in the market is what happens when the government is no longer releasing about a million barrels a day in few months. There were builds across every sub-component in the energy complex... except the SPR, which saw a 6.8mm drain last week to its lowest level since 1985...
Oil rebounds after sell-off despite U.S. stock build, big inflation figure - Oil prices rose on Wednesday, recovering from the previous day's massive sell-off, despite a hike in U.S. oil inventories and after U.S. inflation figures bolstered the case for another big Federal Reserve interest rate increase. Brent crude ended the day 8 cents higher at $99.57 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 46 cents higher at $96.30 per barrel. Investors have been selling oil of late on worries that aggressive rate hikes to stem inflation will slow economic growth and hit oil demand. Prices fell by more than 7% on Tuesday in volatile trade to settle below $100 for the first time since April. However, the physical market remains tight. Key benchmarks, such as Forties crude and U.S. Midland crude, are trading at premiums to the futures market, painting a different picture than what is happening in futures. "Although I don't rule out more downside surprises, I believe the recent sell-off could be getting a little overdone," said Jeffrey Halley of brokerage OANDA. This week, both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and International Energy Agency, in monthly reports, warned that demand was weakening, particularly in the largest world economies. U.S. oil inventories rose more than expected in a mild respite from the tightness in markets. U.S. commercial crude stocks rose by 3.3 million barrels, government data showed, versus expectations for a modest draw in stocks. Investors remain concerned about recent weakness in fuel demand worldwide that is also emerging in the United States. "Demand issues are catching up to high prices. The U.S. dollar is causing downside pressure on all commodities. There's been a shift in mentality over the last couple of weeks," said Tony Headrick, energy markets analyst at CHS Hedging. U.S. consumer prices accelerated to 9.1% in June as gasoline and food costs remained elevated, cementing the case for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 75 basis points later this month. Brent is down sharply since hitting $139 in March, which was close to the all-time high in 2008. Renewed COVID-19 curbs in China have weighed on the market this week. The decline in crude futures has yet to be reflected in the strong physical oil market. Forties crude, one of the grades underpinning Brent futures, was bid at a record high premium to the benchmark of plus $5.35 a barrel on Tuesday. U.S. Midland crude was at a premium of $1.50 a barrel to WTI, also reflecting tightness but that grade was below premiums reached in late February after Ukraine was invaded.
Oil, Equity Futures Sink as Recession Chatter Grows Louder - Following equity markets lower, oil futures fell more than 3% Thursday as investors rapidly repriced the pace of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in the face of persistently high inflation, which is seen denting the global economy and fuel demand. West Texas Intermediate and Brent wiped out nearly all the gains triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 when the oil contracts traded in a roughly $95 to $99 barrel (bbl) range. At the heart of the sell-off is the narrative of demand destruction that is quickly taking an upper hand against Russian oil sanctions and perception of a tight physical oil market. On Wednesday, Bureau of Labor Statistics released their consumer price index for June that showed inflation in the United States is becoming ever more entrenched in the economy, with prices increasing at the fastest clip in 41 years. More than 80% of investors now expect the Federal Open Market Committee will hike interest rates by a historic full percentage point when the board meets in two weeks, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Futures markets priced in just a 7% chance for a 100-basis point interest rate hike before the June CPI release. In Eurozone, money markets are also positioning for interest rate increases in September by ECB that has so far maintained its base rate into negative territory. The Bank of Canada shocked markets Wednesday by leading the way for other major central banks, raising its base rate by a 1%. Not surprisingly, rapid repricing in the face of monetary tightening and the hotter-than-expected inflation report once again stoked fears about a looming recession in the United States and elsewhere. Economists at Bank of America now see a contraction in U.S. growth this year followed by a moderate recovery. In the fourth quarter, BOA see real GDP 1.4% below the year-earlier level. Data from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta last updated July 8 show second quarter GDP already fell into contraction, down a negative 1.2%. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, the U.S. dollar surged 0.74% against a basket of foreign currencies to a fresh 20-year high 108.6 to further pressure the front-month WTI contract that fell more than $3 to $93.24 bbl nearly five-month low on the spot continuous chart overnight. The international crude benchmark Brent contract for September declined $2.41 to $97.17 bbl. NYMEX August RBOB futures declined 10.68 cents to $3.1269 gallon, while front-month ULSD slid more than 6 cents to $3.5741 gallon.
Oil Dips in Volatile Trade as Pendulum Swings on Fed’s Upcoming July Hike - Crude prices fell on Thursday after swinging more than $7 a barrel as markets from oil to equities debated whether the Federal Reserve will impose a record rate hike to curb runaway U.S. price pressures or continue to prioritize growth over inflation.New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude settled down 52 cents, or 0.5%, at $95.78 per barrel. WTI’s low of the day was $90.58 versus its peak of $97. The U.S. crude benchmark has lost 10% since the start of July.London-traded Brent crude settled down 47 cents, or 0.5%, at $99.10 a barrel. The global crude benchmark registered a session low of $95.42 versus a high of $101.21. For July, Brent is down 9%. Crude prices rebounded from their lows after Fed Governor Chris Waller said the central bank can’t overdo rate hikes despite shocking price pressures. Waller said he would support a 75-basis point hike at the Fed’s upcoming July 27th decision on rates, over market bets for a 100-basis point increase.The remarks from one of the Fed’s more hawkish members calmed investors who had been on tenterhooks since the Consumer Price Index for the year to June came in on Wednesday at a new four-decade high of 9.1%.The CPI data was followed up on Thursday with the Producer Price Index’s 11.3% rise during the year to June — the largest such increase since a record 11.2% jump registered during the 12 months to March 2022.St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, known as being a super hawk, also soothed investors by opting for a 75-bps hike in the upcoming July 27th decision on rates.Yet, both Waller and Bullard said they would be open to doing more on rates if data called for it.“For me, a 75-basis point increase at this meeting puts us to neutral,” Waller said. “However, if incoming data over the next two weeks shows that demand remains strong, I would incline toward a bigger rate hike.”“Neutral” is Fed speak for getting inflation back to its target of 2% a year.Bullard said it was plausible for the Fed funds rate to be “higher than 4% by the end of the year if data continues to come in in an unfavorable way”. Fed funds rates are currently at a high of 1.75%.
Oil prices climb amid questions over scale of US rate hike | Deccan Herald - Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Friday amid uncertainty around how aggressive the US Federal Reserve will be in hiking interest rates to combat rampant inflation. Brent crude futures for September delivery rose 80 cents, or 0.8%,to $99.90 a barrel by 0007GMT, while WTI crude rose 69 cents, or 0.7%,to $96.47 a barrel. The Fed's most hawkish policymakers on Thursday said they favoured another 75-basis-point interest rate increase at the US central bank's policy meeting this month, not the bigger rate raise that traders had raced to price in after a report Wednesday showed inflation was accelerating. The Fed rate hike is expected to follow a similar move by the Bank of Canada, which surprised the market on Wednesday with a 100-basis-point increase. The rate hike uncertainty, along with weak economic data, caused both benchmark contracts to drop at one stage on Thursday to below the Feb. 23 close,the day before Russia invaded Ukraine in what Moscow calls "a special military operation". Still, both Brent and WTI had clawed back nearly all losses by the end of the trading session. US President Joe Biden will on Friday fly to Saudi Arabia, where he will attend a summit of Gulf allies and call for them to pump more oil. However, spare capacity at members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is running low, with most producers pumping at maximum capacity, and it is unclear how much extra Saudi Arabia can bring into the market quickly.
Oil rises 2% as no immediate Saudi output boost expected - Oil gained 2.5% on Friday after a U.S. official told Reuters that an immediate Saudi oil output boost was not expected, and as investors question whether OPEC has the room to significantly ramp up crude production. The comment during U.S. President Joe Biden's Middle East visit comes at a time when spare capacity at members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is running low. Brent crude futures settled at $101.16 a barrel, rising $2.06, or 2.1%, while West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $97.59 a barrel, gaining $1.81, or 1.9%. Brent crude futures for September delivery rose $2.06 to settle at $101.16 a barrel, a 2.08% gain. Both benchmarks saw their biggest weekly percentage drops in about a month, largely on fears earlier in the week that a nearing recession would chop away at demand. Brent lost 5.5% in its third weekly drop, while WTI was down 6.9% in its second weekly decline. Biden, prompted by energy and security interests, arrived in Jeddah on Friday and had been expected to call for Saudi Arabia to pump more oil. But the United States does not expect Saudi Arabia to immediately boost oil production and is eyeing the outcome of the next OPEC+ meeting on Aug. 3, a U.S. official told Reuters. "If the market was expecting an announcement between President Biden and (Saudi Crown Prince) Mohammed Bin Salman that oil production was going to be increased, they were sorely disappointed," The United States could still secure a commitment that OPEC will boost production in the months ahead in hopes that it will provide a signal to the market that supplies are coming if necessary. Meanwhile, the U.S. oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, inched up by two to 599 this week to their highest since March 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. Also signalling more oil supply on the horizon was Libya's oil chief, who said crude output will resume after meeting groups that have blockaded the country's oil facilities for months. Lifting force majeure on production could mean a return of 850,000 barrels per day. Concerns that the Fed might opt for a full 100 bps rate rise this month and weak economic data had led to Brent and WTI shedding more than $5 on Thursday to below the closing price on Feb. 23, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine, though both contracts clawed back nearly all the losses by the end of the session. Analysts, however, expect continued pressure on oil from concerns over the global economy. Bearish market sentiment has also followed renewed COVID-19 outbreaks in China, which have hampered a demand recovery. China's refinery throughput in June shrank nearly 10% from a year earlier, with output for the first half of the year down 6% in the first annual decline for the period since at least 2011, data showed on Friday.
WTI, Brent Futures Post Weekly Losses on Recession Fears -- Oil futures settled Friday's session higher, though all petroleum contracts registered week-on-week losses. These were triggered by deepening concerns over recession in the United States and European Union as central banks move aggressively to raise interest rates to rein in excessive consumer demand. U.S. retail sales increased by 1% in June, according to the data released Friday from the Commerce Department, topping expectations for a 0.8% month-on-month gain. The figures likely reflected the impact of decades-high inflation rather than an acceleration in spending activity. Still, there were no signs that the American consumer is pulling back on spending either. Nine of the 13 retail categories showed increases last month, according to the report, including furniture stores, e-commerce and sporting-goods stores. That comes despite consumer prices gaining at the fastest clip since 1981 in June, which sparked a debate as to whether the Federal Reserve would consider an unprecedented full percentage-point interest-rate hike later this month. Fed Gov. Christopher Waller suggested this week that markets are overestimating the potential for a 1% increase in federal funds rates but added the central bank will be data-driven in making its rate decision. This sentiment was supported by Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic who said on Friday that moving interest rates "too dramatically" could undermine the positive trends still seen in the economy and add to the already large amount of uncertainty. Friday afternoon, 69% of investors expect the Federal Open Market Committee will hike interest rates by 75 basis points when the board meets in two weeks, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Futures markets price in just 30.9% chance for a 100-basis point interest rate hike. Not surprisingly, rapid re-pricing of the Fed's rate hike and hotter-than-expected inflation report stoked fears of economic downturn, with some analysts suggesting the U.S. has already entered a mild recession. Atlanta's GDPNow model estimates economic growth in the second quarter contracted to -1.5% as of today, down from -1.2% seen on July 8. Limiting gains for the oil complex, overnight data out of China showed the world's second-largest economy expanded at just 0.4% in the second quarter, missing estimates for 1% growth and 4.4% below the increase reported in the first three months of the year. This was the weakest performance since the first quarter of 2020, when China's economy came to a near standstill as it battled to contain the initial coronavirus outbreak that started in Wuhan province. Absent of effective vaccine, Beijing resorted to harsh lockdowns and movement controls to limit the viral spread in the nation of 1.4 billion people. At settlement, West Texas Intermediate August contract rallied $1.81 to $97.59 per barrel (bbl). International benchmark Brent for September delivery advanced more than $2 to $101.16 per bbl. NYMEX August RBOB futures gained 2.64 cents to $3.2132 per gallon, while front-month ULSD added 4.96 cents to $3.6990 per gallon.
OPEC faces a near-impossible production task next year— OPEC producers will need to pump crude at the fastest pace in five years in 2023 if they are to balance oil supply and demand. Capacity constraints suggest they may struggle. The latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries all show global oil demand rising strongly again in 2023, despite growing fears over mounting inflation and weakening economic growth. A lack of investment in new crude production capacity means that the OPEC group of producers will need to pump more to meet that demand. All three forecasters see global oil demand increasing by at least 2 million barrels a day next year, taking it back above the 2019 level for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic struck in early 2020. The forecasters at the producer group are much more bullish about oil demand than their counterparts in the IEA and EIA. Combining growth estimates for 2022 and 2023, they see an increase over the two years of more than 6 million barrels a day. That compares with 3.9 million barrels a day seen by the IEA and 4.3 million barrels a day from the EIA. The latest report from OPEC assumes that neither the Covid pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, nor global financial tightening amid soaring inflation undermines economic growth to a significant degree and that major economies “revert back towards their growth potentials.” It does note, though, that the uncertainties around its forecast “remain to the downside.” OPEC sees that growth taking global oil demand to 103 million barrels a day on average in 2023. The IEA and EIA see the figure at 101.3 million barrels and 101.6 million barrels a day respectively. Those demand numbers put growing pressure on the OPEC countries to pump more, even as most of them are already producing as much as they can.
UK warship seizes “advanced Iranian missiles” bound for Yemen - Last Thursday, in a glimpse into the British government’s support for the barbaric House of Saud, the Royal Navy reported that one of its warships had seized Iranian weapons, including surface-to-air-missiles and engines for cruise missiles, from smugglers in international waters south of Iran in January and February. The US Navy destroyer USS Gridley supported frigate HMS Montrose in February’s operation. A navy spokesperson said that “the seized packages were returned to the UK for technical analysis which revealed that the shipment contained multiple rocket engines for the Iranian produced 351 land attack cruise missile and a batch of 358 surface-to-air missiles.” While it did not state the missiles’ intended destination, it said the 351 cruise missile, with a range of 1,000 km, is often used by Yemen’s Houthi group to target Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This was hailed as “proof” of Iran’s support for Yemen’s Houthi rebels which the UN have designated as “terrorists.” The Houthis have been fighting a Saudi-led coalition after they forced Yemen President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi to flee the capital Sana’a in 2014 and took control of the north of the country. Both the Houthis and Iran have long denied Tehran’s support for the Houthis in the seven year-long war. The world’s media has barely reported this act of piracy on the high seas. The Royal Navy’s operations followed the US Navy’s seizure last December in the Arabian Sea of a large cache of assault rifles and ammunition being smuggled by a fishing ship from Iran that was probably bound for Yemen’s Houthi rebels. A US Navy statement said it had confiscated 8,700 illicit weapons in 2021 across the 2.5 million-square-mile area its 5th Fleet patrols, including the strategically important Red Sea and the Persian Gulf The US Navy said the boat was sailing along a route “historically used to traffic weapons unlawfully to the Houthis in Yemen.” It added, “The direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer of weapons to the Houthis violates UN Security Council Resolutions and U.S. sanctions.” The Biden administration lifted the terrorist designation imposed on the Houthis in the last days of the Trump administration in 2021. But in February it issued fresh sanctions on members of a network it claimed worked with a branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) smuggling petroleum and other commodities around the Middle East, Asia and Africa to help fund the Houthis. Days later, the UN Security Council extended its arms embargo on some Houthi leaders to the entire group after they claimed responsibility for several drone and missile assaults on the UAE and Saudi Arabia in January. The British-drafted resolution called on all countries “to increase efforts to combat the smuggling of weapons and components via land and sea routes, to ensure implementation of the targeted arms embargo.” This was aimed at helping the US and UK’s medieval allies, who reject even the most basic norms of bourgeois democracy and ban all forms of opposition and dissent as they struggle to keep a lid on slave-labour wages and conditions, mass poverty and seething discontent. The resolution ignored the countless crimes committed by the Saudi-led coalition against its impoverished southern neighbour Yemen in the seven-year-long war. These have deliberately targeted the civilian population, with numerous horrific attacks on civilian infrastructure and buildings—crimes under the Fourth Geneva Convention—and the inflicting of mass starvation. These crimes followed the launching of Saudi Arabia’s air, land and sea assault on Yemen in March 2015, aided by its fellow despots in the region and covertly by the US and Britain, following the ouster of the Hadi government. Saudi Arabia hoped to restore its puppet to power and maintain the rule of the Gulf despots across the peninsula amid seething social tensions. Since then, Yemen has fragmented amid fighting by numerous competing militias, whose loyalties have repeatedly changed. In April, after a series of attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s oil installations earlier this year claimed by the Houthis, and Hadi’s resignation, Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed a still fractious ceasefire. The Saudi-led war has killed nearly 400,000 people both directly and indirectly through hunger and disease and forced more than 4.2 million people to flee their homes. It has wrecked Yemen’s economy, causing the collapse of the currency and soaring inflation. The pandemic and the impact of anti-Russian sanctions in a country almost wholly dependent on imported food have exacerbated what the UN has described as the world’s worst humanitarian disaster.
White House: Iran preparing to send Russia drones for Ukraine war - The United States believes that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with hundreds of drones in order to help Moscow with its ongoing assault on Ukraine, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on Monday. “Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia up to several hundred UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles], including weapons-capable UAVs, on an expedited timeline,” Sullivan said at a press briefing. Sullivan said that the Iranians are preparing to train Russian forces to use the unmanned aerial vehicles as early as this month. It’s unclear if any have been delivered to the Russians at this point in time. The national security adviser disclosed the information to exhibit the difficulty Russia is experiencing in sustaining its own weapons stockpile as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine comes close to entering its sixth month. Sullivan made the comments when briefing reporters on President Biden’s upcoming trip to the Middle East. Biden is expected to depart for the trip later this week, traveling to Israel and then Saudi Arabia. Iran and its nuclear program are expected to be topics of discussion during Biden’s travel. The Biden administration has sought to return to the Iran nuclear deal that former President Trump withdrew from during his tenure but has thus far been unable to strike a deal.
White House Says Iran Supplying "Several Hundred" Armed Drones To Russia - In a truly unexpected and entirely bizarre development, the White House has announced that the US has intelligence showing that the Iranian government is preparing to transfer combat drones to Russia in order to help with the ongoing offensive against Ukraine.As revealed for the first time in a Monday afternoon White House press briefing previewing President Biden's upcoming Middle East trip, the transfer doesn't just involve a symbolic few drones in order for Tehran to merely defiantly thumb its nose at Washington, but allegedly will include "up to several hundred" unmanned aerial vehicles.White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters, "Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline." This marks the first time that Iran has been accused of helping Russia amid its ongoing assault on Ukraine. The new charge is unusual and curious given Russia already maintains an advanced drone program, and in general its military is considered high-tech and is deemed rival to other major superpowers like the US and China, especially in the area of hypersonic weapons technology. Naturally, this leaves some pundits wondering why Russia would need a whole large fleet of drones from Iran of all countries.Sullivan told reporters that the drone transfer will even include training Russian troops on how to use them: "Our information further indicates that Iran is preparing to train Russian forces to use these UAVs with initial training sessions slated to begin as soon as early July," he said.The US national security adviser did attempt to provide a possible motive or reason why Iran and Russia would make such an unusual deal, per Axios:Sullivan said it's proof that Russia's efforts to overtake Ukraine are "coming at a cost to the sustainment of its own weapons." It's just "one example of how Russia is looking to countries like Iran for capabilities that ... have been used before we got the ceasefire in place in Yemen, to attack Saudi Arabia," he noted.
Russia Controls Area The Size Of Mississippi In Ukraine Despite US Pledge Of $54BN - A note in Lisa Daftari's The Foreign Desk newsletter reads of the latest on the Ukraine war and Washington efforts: "$54 Billion Dollars… and Russia Controls an Area the Size of Mississippi". In terms of geography and land mass, this represents about one-fifth of Ukraine.Much of the Donbas region and the south is effectively under Russian military control, also as on Monday President Vladimir Putin signed a decree easing rules for residents of Donbas and some parts of occupied Ukraine, making it easier for the local population to acquire Russian citizenship, according to state RIA.Additionally the Kharkiv region, which contains Ukraine's second largest city by the same name, is in the last days coming under intensified Russian artillery bombardment. Bordering Russia to its North, and Russian-controlled Luhansk on its East, a slew of Western media reports are warning Kharkiv oblast is likely the next major region to be annexed by Russia.Related to this, the UK's Ministry of Defense has warned in an intelligence briefing that "Control of the E40, which links Donetsk to Kharkiv, is likely to be an important objective for Russia as it attempts to advance through Donetsk Oblast."As for the massive amount of US taxpayer money already poured into Ukraine since the conflict, as well as what's been pledged in total, Fox News has tallied based on the US government's own figures the following:The Pentagon on Friday confirmed that the U.S. has provided $8 billion in security assistance since Russia’s invasion in February, but Washington has committed to spending far more. Earlier this year, Congress committed to spending $54 billion in traditional foreign aid and military assistance in a move to help squash Putin’s offensive.The funds will largely be divided through traditional channels to support Ukraine but will also provide support to NATO nations and U.S. troops stationed in Europe. The rest of the over $40 billion is likely to take years to transfer, after President Biden recently vowed to support Ukraine "as long as it takes" - and following the latest $400 million weapons package pledged.
Russia says it will ramp up operations as rockets pound Ukrainian cities - Russia said on Saturday its forces would step up military operations in Ukraine in "all operational areas" as Moscow's rockets and missiles pounded cities in strikes that Kyiv says have killed dozens in recent days. Rockets hit the northeastern town of Chuhuiv in Kharkiv region overnight, killing three people including a 70-year-old woman and wounding three others, regional governor Oleh Synehubov said. "Three people lost their lives, why? What for? Because Putin went mad?" said Raisa Shapoval, 83, a distraught resident sitting in the ruins of her home. To the south, more than 50 Russian Grad rockets pounded the city of Nikopol, on the Dnipro River, killing two people who were found in the rubble, the region's governor Valentyn Reznichenko said. Ukraine says at least 40 people have been killed in such attacks on urban areas in the last three days. Russia says it has been hitting military targets. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered military units to intensify their operations to prevent Ukrainian strikes on eastern Ukraine and other areas held by Russia, where he said Kyiv could hit civilian infrastructure or residents. Shoigu, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, was shown in military fatigues at a command post on the defense ministry's Zvezda TV channel being briefed on the war and awarding "Golden Star" medals for heroism to two generals. His remarks appeared to be a direct response to what Kyiv says is a string of successful strikes carried out on 30 Russian logistics and ammunition hubs using several multiple launch rocket systems recently supplied by the West. Ukraine's defense ministry spokesperson said on Friday that the strikes were causing havoc with Russian supply lines and had significantly reduced Russia's offensive capability. War of attrition While the focus of the war has moved to Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, Russian forces have been striking cities elsewhere in the country with missiles and rockets in what has become an increasingly attritional conflict. Moscow, which launched what it called its "special military operation" against Ukraine on Feb. 24, says it uses high-precision weapons to degrade Ukraine's military infrastructure and protect its own security. It has repeatedly denied targeting civilians.
Putin Signs Decree Offering Citizenship To All Ukrainians - After a month ago Russia began offering passports to Ukrainian citizens of the pro-Russian separatist republics in the Donbas region, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a hugely controversial decree ordering that "all citizens of Ukraine" be given "the right to apply for admission to the citizenship of the Russian Federation in a simplified manner." This is driving speculation that Putin's war aims include complete annexation of territory taken by Russian forces, especially conquered regions in the east and south. The new citizenship for Ukrainians scheme already appears in full swing, as "Nearly 40% of the 137,700 citizens of former Soviet countries who obtained Russian citizenship in January-April 2022 were from Ukraine, according to Interior Ministry data," The Moscow Times writes. To be expected, the Ukrainian government is furious over the new decree, with Ukraine's foreign ministry stating, "The illegal issuing of passports... is a flagrant violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as norms and principles of international humanitarian law."Meanwhile, in another sign of Russia's intentions for eastern Ukraine, a series of top administration posts overseeing local and regional Ukrainian municipalities have been filled in the last days.The Moscow Times has, for example, described the "parachuting in of officials" in regions firmly under Russian military control: A growing number of Russian officials have been handed senior jobs in occupied parts of Ukraine in what analysts said was an attempt to strengthen ties to Moscow ahead of a possible annexation process.This week alone, appointments included a former deputy from the Russian parliament, regional government officials and a high-ranking Federal Security Service (FSB) officer. The report details further, "Perhaps the most high-profile instance so far came Tuesday, when former Russian parliamentary deputy Andrei Kozenko was made the deputy head of the 'military-civilian administration' for occupied areas of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya region. He will oversee economic integration with Russia, according to an official statement."
Russia Expands Fast-Tracked Citizenship Scheme to All Ukrainians - Russia will extend its fast-tracked citizenship scheme to all Ukrainian citizens, not just those living in separatist or Russian-occupied areas, according to a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin on Monday.Putin's decree orders that "all citizens of Ukraine" be given "the right to apply for admission to the citizenship of the Russian Federation in a simplified manner."Russia first introduced the simplified passportization scheme to residents of the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics" of eastern Ukraine in 2019.The program was expanded in May 2022, three months into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, to include Ukrainians living in the Russia-occupied Kherson region and the partially occupied Zaporizhzhia region.Kyiv's foreign ministry condemned Monday's decree as an "encroachment" on its sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding that the naturalization of Ukrainians is "incompatible" with international law."Ukrainians do not need Putin's citizenship and attempts to impose it by force are doomed to failure," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said. Kuleba called Monday's decree "worthless" and proof of "Putin's aggressive appetites." The passportization expansions have added to speculation that Moscow will seek to establish permanent control over Ukrainian lands it has captured in its four-month invasion, despite Putin claiming in March that Russia had “no intention” of occupying Ukrainian territory.
China Fumes After Military 'Drove' Away US Warship Near Claimed Paracel Islands - China is fuming after the US Navy on Wednesday sailed a destroyer near the China-controlled Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. The Navy's 7th fleet said that the guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold was in the region and passed near the disputed island chain to uphold "the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea." China's Southern Theater Command, however, said it closely monitored the American vessel as it had "illegally entered" China's territorial waters. The PLA military said it drove the warship away.The Chinese military statement said in reference to the USS Benfold that it "organized naval and air forces to track and monitor it, send warnings and drive it away."Beijing has in recent years used its network of small military outposts on the South China's Sea's many island-chains, including on its series of 'man-made' island, to lay claim to the entirety of the waters which are rich in fish and underground mineral resources, and through which trillions of dollars worth of global trade passes through each year.But regional powers, US allies among them, including the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan, also lay claim to many of the islands and surrounding South China Sea waters.But the Chinese military statement aimed at Washington made clear what Beijing sees as its own:"On July 13, the U.S. guided missile destroyer Benfold illegally broke into China’s Paracel territorial waters without the approval of the Chinese government," Tian Junli, the spokesperson for the Chinese military’s Southern Theatre Command, said in a statement."The actions of the U.S. military have seriously violated China's sovereignty and security, seriously undermined the peace and stability of the South China Sea, and seriously violated international law and norms of international relations," protested the Chinese military in the statement.The US Navy statement following the sail-by addressed Chinese claims head on, condemning the "sweeping maritime claims" as posing a "serious threat" to freedom of navigation.
US Warns China It Will Defend Philippines In The South China Sea -The Biden administration reminded China on Tuesday that the US will intervene to defend the Philippines if Manila’s vessels come under attack in the South China Sea.Secretary of State Antony Blinken made the warning in a statement on the anniversary of an international tribunal ruling that sided with the Philippines against China in a territorial dispute in the South China Sea.The 2016 ruling from a tribunal in the Hague was made under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The US is not a party to UNCLOS but has used the treaty to reject China’s claims to the South China Sea.The Trump administration formally rejected most of Beijing’s claims to the disputed waters in 2020, which Blinken reaffirmed. "The United States reaffirms its July 13, 2020, policy regarding maritime claims in the South China Sea," Blinken said."We also reaffirm that an armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the South China Sea would invoke US mutual defense commitments under Article IV of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty," the top US diplomat added."We call again on the PRC to abide by its obligations under international law and cease its provocative behavior," Blinken said. "We will continue to work with allies and partners, as well as regional institutions like ASEAN, to protect and preserve the rules-based order."The Philippines and China’s dispute has led to tense stand-offs in the South China Sea. Last year, the Philippines objected to the presence of Chinese fishing vessels it said were a "maritime militia" near a disputed reef in the region.During the stand-off, the US reassured Manila that the Mutual Defense Treaty would cover attacks on Philippine vessels in the area.
China narrowly misses second-quarter contraction as zero-Covid batters economy - World's second-biggest economy expanded 0.4 per cent year on year in the three months to the end of June, below the 1.2 per cent forecast by economists. slowdown reflected the hit from a two-month lockdown in Shanghai, which took full effect in April. Beijing is expected to miss its target of about 5.5 per cent annual growth for 2022.
Significant economic slowdown as China battles COVID - The world economy took another step towards recession with the announcement yesterday that China, the world’s second largest economy, had grown by only 0.4 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. This was below the 1.2 percent predicted by economists and well down from the 4.8 percent year-on-year growth recorded in the first quarter. The main reason for the slowdown was the effect of the two-month lockdown of Shanghai as the government sought to implement its policy of Zero-COVID. Shanghai has re-opened but China is now facing the effects of the BA.5 variant of the virus which is rapidly spreading around the world because of the abandonment by all governments of even limited mitigation measures, let alone pursuing the necessary policy of global elimination. According to an analysis made by the Japanese financial firm Nomura, 31 Chinese cities are under full or partial lockdown, affecting almost 248 million people and accounting for 17.5 percent of the country’s economic output. The Chinese experience demonstrates two things: public health safety measures can bring the pandemic under control, but elimination is impossible solely on a national basis. Besides the devastating health impact as millions are condemned to an unnecessary death, the refusal to adopt such an international strategy is not only fuelling inflation, it is pushing the world economy into a slump. On a quarter-by-quarter basis, the economy contracted by 2.6 percent in the three months to the end of June, compared with 1.4 percent growth in the first quarter. The June quarter contraction was well above predictions of a 1.5 percent shrinkage. Unemployment is starting to rise with the level of youth joblessness rising to a record 19.3 percent. Releasing the figures, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui, tried to put the best face on the situation at a press briefing yesterday morning. “Generally speaking, with a series of policies to solidly stabilise the economy achieving notable results, the national economy has overcome the adverse impact of unexpected factors, demonstrating the momentum of stable recovery,” he said. During a visit to Wuhan last month, Chinese president Xi Pinhg indicated that Zero-COVID would continue. While he acknowledged there were economic problems, he said it was better to “temporarily affect a little economic development rather than risk people’s health and safety.” Chinese authorities have estimated that hundreds of thousands, if not millions, could die if the “let it rip” policy in the rest of the world were adopted. But there are signs of cracks in the regime. In its report on the COVID-induced economic downturn, the Washington Post, one of the many media outlets around the world calling for the abandonment of Zero-COVID, eagerly seized on such indications. It reported that when Chinese premier Li Keqiang visited the coastal city of Fuzhou to hold discussions with officials in the south-eastern industrial area about how to bring stability, he urged they steer the economy back on track. Photographs in state media have shown Li in meetings where no one was wearing a mask, and these appearances “have been interpreted by some as a show of support… for a faster return to normalcy.” It described the Zero-COVID policy as “increasingly controversial and economically damaging.” But apart from sections of the upper middle class, whose objections are eagerly seized on by the western media, the official policy enjoys wide public support, and the government fears it would face massive opposition were it abandoned. The Chinese government is seeking to alleviate the COVID economic damage by loosening financial conditions and allowing local government authorities to issue additional bonds to finance new projects. But financial stimulus measures are restricted by the shift by major central banks to a higher interest rate regime. Authorities fear there will be a fall in the value of the renminbi and a capital outflow if monetary policy is relaxed too much.
Macau Orders All Casinos Shut Amid City's Biggest COVID Surge Yet - Macau, the semi-autonomous Chinese region known as the "Las Vegas of the East," has ordered all casinos to shut down for a week amid the city's largest-yet Covid-19 surge—which has seen 1,467 cases out of a population of 680,000. A former Portuguese colony with a political status similar to that of Hong Kong, Macau is following Chinese President Xi Jinping's zero-Covid policy, which is characterized by lockdowns, mass testing and quarantines. In June, U.S. ambassador Nicholas Burns cautioned China that the approach was damaging the global economy. Given Macau is the world's largest gambling locale, authorities have been reluctant to close the city's more than 30 casinos, which account for more than 80% of government revenue. Indeed, this is the first such closure since a 15-day shutdown in February 2020. The casino closure is part of a much broader lockdown hitting all "non-essential" businesses. Exempted categories of business include utilities, groceries, pharmacies, hotels, restaurants and healthcare. Dine-in service has been banned since a June 23 directive that also closed salons, gyms, bars and entertainment venues. "The Executive Order instructs all individuals to stay at home, unless their outings are necessary," said the government in its announcement. Reuters reports: More than 30 zones in the city that have been deemed high risk are now under lockdown, meaning no one is allowed to enter or exit for at least 5 days. While the government said it was not imposing a citywide lockdown, the stringent measures mean Macau is effectively closed.Though the casino shutdown is slated to last one week—from Monday to Monday—observers see a strong likelihood it could be extended by a few more weeks. Following China's lead, the testing regime in Macau is extraordinary. After having already been tested six times since the middle of June, residents will required to submit to four tests this week alone. That's sure to add to tensions in the city, which has already seen fights breaking out at testing centers and aggravation over 20-hour waits for medical attention.
OECD Members Just Met in Ibiza to Discuss Creating a Global Vaccine Passport Regime - On the same day as the OECD meeting, the governments of 21 African countries quietly embraced a vaccine passport system, which will apparently link up with other global systems. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will promote the unification of the different COVID passport systems in the world, said Spain’s Minister of Tourism and Industry, Reyes Maroto, at a gathering of OECD governments in Ibiza on Friday (Jan 8). Thirty-six countries, as well as international organizations, participated in the event, which was aimed at creating a multilateral framework for establishing a global vaccine passport regime. Such a step is necessary, said Maroto, in order to prevent “distrust and confusion” among international travellers. As I reported in early March, in the article Are Vaccine Passports About to Go Totally Global?, an assortment of private partnerships are working behind the scenes to harmonize vaccine passport standards and systems at a global level. They include the Vaccine Credentials Initiative (VCI™), with backing from the U.S. government contractor MITRE Corporation, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, Oracle, Sales Force and Mayo Clinic; the Commons Project Foundation (the World Economic Forum and Rockefeller Foundation) and the Good Health Pass Collaborative(Mastercard, IBM, Grameen Foundation and the International Chamber of Commerce). After publicly opposing vaccine passports for more than a year, the World Health Organization also appears poised to lend its endorsement. In February, T-Systems, the IT services arm of Deutsche Telekom, announced in a press release that it had been chosen by WHO as an “industry partner” in the introduction of digital vaccine passports. The e-documents will be a standard procedure not only for COVID-19 vaccines but also “other vaccinations such as polio or yellow fever” as well as presumably other vaccines that come on line in the future. T-Systems already has experience in this area, having helped to make the vaccine passport systems in Europe interoperable. The Indonesian presidency of the G-20 is also conducting “pilot projects” to make the different vaccine passport systems being used around the world interoperable, Moroto told participants at the OECD meeting. The work is scheduled to be finished by the G-20 Leaders’ Summit in November in Kuala Lumpur, where the measures are expected to receive the necessary political backing. Such a statement raises a number of questions. How many countries outside of the West’s rapidly diminishing sphere of influence will be willing to go along with a plan hatched largely by governments in the West to control global travel? Moscow, for starters, is unlikely to sign up. Just last week the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov walked out of a G20 meeting after Russia was accused of exacerbating the global food crisis. What about China, which NATO recently declared a security challenge for the first time? More important still, what is the point of creating a global vaccine passport regime when, as we have seen over the past year, said passports offer zero hope of controlling the spread of the COVID-19 virus, because the vaccines themselves are non-sterilizing? In fact, there is growing evidence that vaccine passports may actually be exacerbating rather than reducing transmission of the virus, by propagating a false sense of security among vaccinated people leading many of them to let down their guard. Despite all this, Africa, the least vaccinated continent on the planet, is also embracing vaccine passports.
Shinzo Abe's Ruling Party Gains Supermajority In Upper-House Election Following His Assassination --Japan’s ruling center-right party scored a supermajority in the House of Councillors election on July 10, claiming more than half of the 125 contested seats, in the wake of the assassination of former prime minister and party leader Shinzo Abe.Abe’s factious Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 119 of the 248 seats in the upper chamber of parliament, while its coalition partner Komeito secured 27 seats, broadcaster NHK reported.This has secured for the party the two-thirds majority required to amendment Japan’s pacifist post-war Constitution. As part of Abe’s Japan-first policies, he was looking to revise Article 9, forbidding Japan from possessing its own military or forces with “war potential.”If unchallenged by other factions within the party, the victory will allow Kishida to preside until the next election in 2025. Kishida, a moderate from Hiroshima who wants nuclear weapons banned, represents the smaller, more left-leaning liberal wing of the LDP, while Abe lead the right-leaning nationalist wing. Kishida is more dovish on foreign policy than Abe, who was considered hawkish on China for his revitalising of the Quad forum and nationalizing of the uninhabited Senkaku islands that China contests as part of its territory—the Diaoyu islands.
Fuel shortages, massive debts, and protesters partying in the presidential palace: Here is what's going on in 'bankrupt' Sri Lanka - The president of Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, 73, resigned on Thursday after fleeing to Singapore in the wake of widespread protests across the island nation sparked by dire shortages of fuel, medicines and huge rises in the cost of basic foodstuffs in recent weeks.The prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, is now acting president until a new head of state is elected.So what has gone wrong with Sri Lanka's economy – and how might its problems be solved?Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year sent the cost of oil, natural gas and commodities such as grain soaring globally. Sri Lanka's economy was already poorly managed, according to many experts, and the price rises have proven to be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Rajapaksa's older brother Mahinda has also served as president and their family has governed Sri Lanka for much of the past 20 years. Their decision to borrow huge sums from China in particular, partly for infrastructure projects of questionable value, and what the Financial Times has described as failed economic policies, caused Sri Lanka to default on its debt in May.A default occurs when a government stops making interest payments to its creditors. In Sri Lanka's case it owes $51 billion, the FT reported, and has become the first country to default since the Ukraine war began. Other less wealthy countries where a greater proportion of spending goes on food could also follow suit, economists fear.Earlier this month Wickremesinghe said Sri Lanka was now a "bankrupt country," CNN reported.Because it has run out of foreign currencies such as US dollars, Sri Lanka can no longer pay for imports of fuel and food. People have been told to work from home in a bid to save energy, schools have closed and electricity supplies have become unreliable. Sales of petrol have been restricted, creating huge queues of rickshaw taxis trying to fill up in cities like the capital Colombo.
Worldwide wheat prices jump 6.6% in a single day - Wheat prices jumped 6.6% worldwide in a single day with a decisive turnaround under the pressure of the resumption of dialogue between the US and China which seems interested in buying foreign wheat and corn, which marked an increase of 4.6%.This is what emerged from the analysis of the Italian farmers’ association – Coldiretti at the weekly closing of the Chicago Board of Trade, the international reference point of the future market of cereals with wheat which rose to $8.91 US dollars per bushel and corn at $6.23 per bushel after a downturn.A shock for the markets after the long stalemate on the unblocking of Ukrainian products in transport which is one of the main producers and exporters of wheat, exporting roughly 10% of the common wheat destined for bread making in the world for a total of over 18 million tons, but also 15% of corn for over 27 million tons.The jump in food commodity prices worldwide is causing severe famine and hunger in poor countries, inflation, and increased food poverty in rich countries. The trend in prices also reflects the downsizing of production forecasts at a global level where world production of wheat for 2022/23 is estimated to decrease to 769 million, due to the reduction in Ukraine with an estimated quantity of 19.4 million tons, about 40% less than the 33 million tons expected for this season but also in the United States (46.8 million) and India (105 million), according to Coldiretti’s analysis of the latest International Grains data Council which also highlights that, in contrast to the trend, the wheat harvest grows by 2.6% in Russia, reaching 84.
The price of paper has doubled this year and publishers are freaking out that their print magazines and newspapers are in jeopardy - Publishers around the globe are drawing up worst-case scenario plans amid the soaring cost and scarcity of paper that threatens the future of their print newspapers and magazines. Newsprint in the UK was priced at around 360 pounds ($426) per ton in the first quarter of 2021; now the price has almost doubled to around £710 ($841), said Rick Stunt, group paper director at DMG media, which prints The Daily Mail and dozens of regional titles. It represents a 40% premium on the historic high of 510 pounds per ton, he said. In the US, the price has risen by a similar percentage, to around $800 a ton, according to Stunt. "These are big increases. We don't usually get this over an 18-month period," said Stunt. "In the past, really big increases were about 20 to 25%." As demand for paper declined over the last 20 to 30 years amid the digital revolution, paper mills across the world shut down. Then along came the COVID-19 pandemic and the labor shortages and supply chain snafus that followed. Added to an already tight market, demand for cardboard packages soared amid the ecommerce boom. This year, rising inflation and ballooning energy costs have made an already bad situation worse for paper supply. "From an industry perspective it's a disaster because you've got no choice but to reduce the amount of pages you print, choose to increase your cover price, or a combination thereof — and that will reduce demand," said an executive at the UK's Daily Telegraph who said they were confident they could absorb the cost by passing on the price to subscribers. Other options on the table include reducing the number of pages printed, shrinking the physical size of magazines and newspapers, cutting certain editions — such as weekdays — and winding down the print product altogether, experts said. Time Out, Entertainment Weekly, InStyle, and a number of Gannett-owned regionals are among the titles to have closed their print editions this year, with most saying they planned to refocus efforts on their digital assets. The spike in paper costs marks the latest in a string of challenges for the global publishing industry, which faces increasing competition for consumer attention and brand ad dollars against a slew of social, gaming, and streaming platforms. Publishers are also bracing themselves for a downturn in ad spending and a global cost of living crisis that might force some consumers to give up their subscriptions. That's not to mention staff salary inflation and rising fuel costs. Print was already on the decline but still represents a decent proportion of many publishers' revenue. Net global revenue for print newspapers and magazines — which includes circulation and advertising sales — is projected to reach $128.5 billion this year, according to Statista. Print represented 38% of The New York Times' ad revenue and 43% of subscription revenue in 2021. The constraints on paper began earlier and are more pronounced in Europe due to a recent four-month strike at paper mills in Norway, plus Russia's invasion of Ukraine that has led to soaring energy prices. Ahead of the invasion, Russia was responsible for about 40% of Europe's gas supplies, whereas the US mainly relies on its own domestic supply.
Uber broke laws, duped police and secretly lobbied governments, leak reveals – A leaked trove of confidential files has revealed the inside story of how the tech giant Uber flouted laws, duped police, exploited violence against drivers and secretly lobbied governments during its aggressive global expansion. The unprecedented leak to the Guardian of more than 124,000 documents – known as the Uber files – lays bare the ethically questionable practices that fuelled the company’s transformation into one of Silicon Valley’s most famous exports.The leak spans a five-year period when Uber was run by its co-founder Travis Kalanick, who tried to force the cab-hailing service into cities around the world, even if that meant breaching laws and taxi regulations. During the fierce global backlash, the data shows how Uber tried to shore up support by discreetly courting prime ministers, presidents, billionaires, oligarchs and media baronsLeaked messages suggest Uber executives were at the same time under no illusions about the company’s law-breaking, with one executive joking they had become “pirates” and another conceding: “We’re just fucking illegal.”On Monday, Mark MacGann, Uber’s former chief lobbyist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, came forward to identify himself as the source of the leaked data. “It is my duty to speak up and help governments and parliamentarians right some fundamental wrongs,” he said. “Morally, I had no choice in the matter.”The cache of files, which span 2013 to 2017, includes more than 83,000 emails, iMessages and WhatsApp messages, including often frank and unvarnished communications between Kalanick and his top team of executives. In one exchange, Kalanick dismissed concerns from other executives that sending Uber drivers to a protest in France put them at risk of violence from angry opponents in the taxi industry. “I think it’s worth it,” he shot back. “Violence guarantee[s] success.”In a statement, Kalanick’s spokesperson said he “never suggested that Uber should take advantage of violence at the expense of driver safety” and any suggestion he was involved in such activity would be completely false.The leak also contains texts between Kalanick and Emmanuel Macron, who secretly helped the company in France when he was economy minister, allowing Uber frequent and direct access to him and his staff.Macron, the French president, appears to have gone to extraordinary lengths to help Uber, even telling the company he had brokered a secret “deal” with its opponents in the French cabinet.Privately, Uber executives expressed barely disguised disdain for other elected officials who were less receptive to the company’s business model.After the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who was mayor of Hamburg at the time, pushed back against Uber lobbyists and insisted on paying drivers a minimum wage, an executive told colleagues he was “a real comedian”.When the then US vice-president, Joe Biden, a supporter of Uber at the time, was late to a meeting with the company at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Kalanick texted a colleague: “I’ve had my people let him know that every minute late he is, is one less minute he will have with me.”
124,000 Leaked Documents Reveal How Uber Spread "F**king Illegal" Ride-Sharing Globally - A treasure trove of more than 124,000 confidential documents known as "The Uber Files" reveals the inside story of how Uber aggressively pushed into international marketsThe unprecedented leak to The Guardian and shared with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) and other media outlets shows how the ride-sharing service wooed prime ministers, presidents, billionaires, and oligarchs for access to their home markets between 2013-17. The files cover Uber's operations across 40 countries during a period in which the company became a global behemoth, bulldozing its cab-hailing service into many of the cities in which it still operates today. -- The Guardian Uber's history of disregarding local laws and regulations and even conducting law-breaking activities were detailed in the cache of files containing emails, iMessage, and WhatsApp messages, including conversations with co-founder Travis Kalanick and top-level execs. In a 2014 message to a coworker, Uber's former head of global communications, Nairi Hourdajian, reportedly stated: "Sometimes we have problems because, well, we're just fucking illegal."In an exchange between Kalanick and execs, the co-founder overlooked concerns about sending French Uber drivers to demonstrate against the taxi industry. "I think it's worth it ... Violence guarantee[s] success," Kalanick wrote to colleagues. There were also messages between Kalanick and Emmanuel Macron, who helped the company into the French market -- it was noted that Macron, then economy minister, secretly brokered deals with opponents in the French cabinet to allow the company to disrupt Europe's taxi industry. In 2016, Kalanick met with then-U.S. Vice President Biden at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He messaged his staff about Biden's tardiness: "I've had my people let him know that every minute late he is, is one less minute he will have with me."
Mounting uncertainty over effects of central banks’ tightening policies -- There is a growing sense in financial markets, reflected in media commentary, that for all their attempts to project an air of certainty under so-called “forward guidance,” central banks are confronting an economic and financial situation that is rapidly running out of their control. In the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008 and again amid the market meltdown at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, central banks, led by the US Fed, pumped trillions of dollars into the global financial system to prevent a total crash. Now they are hiking rates and tightening monetary policy in the face of the highest inflation in 40 years to try and suppress wage demands. But they are doing so under conditions never experienced in the past, where they have become the central prop for the financial system. As a result of its asset purchases, especially over the past two years, during which it has outlaid a further $4.6 trillion, the Fed holds a quarter of all outstanding Treasury bonds and a third of all mortgage-backed securities. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) own just under 40 percent of their own governments’ bonds and the Bank of Japan holds nearly half of all government debt. The move to tighten monetary policy through interest rate increases and the reduction of these holdings is producing gyrations in financial markets because no one has any real idea of where it will lead. Wall Street, which has just experienced its worst opening half-year for 50 years, moves up one day in the belief that the interest rates already carried out so far are producing a recession and the Fed will be forced to pull back, only to fall the next when inflation numbers and other economic data indicate monetary tightening will continue. Commodity markets are also experiencing major swings. After escalating earlier in the year, because of the US-led NATO proxy war against Russia in the Ukraine, many commodity prices have fallen back sharply on recession fears. But as the Financial Times noted “even the commodities that have been on a downward path could rocket again tomorrow.” Currency markets are also in turmoil—an expression of the so-call smile effect which describes a situation in which the US dollar tends to rise when the American economy is growing, as well as at other end of the scale when recession fears see massive amounts of money seeking a so-called “safe haven” in US assets. The US dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of six others, is now at a 20-year high as the euro has dropped to near parity with the dollar—a level not seen for almost 20 years—while the Japanese yen is at a 24-year low against the US currency.
Heathrow Airport, a crucial global travel hub, asks airlines to stop selling tickets and caps passenger numbers amid travel chaos - London Heathrow Airport, a key global aviation hub, asked airlines on Tuesday to stop selling summer tickets as travel chaos took a turn for the worse.Heathrow, which was the busiest airport in Europe until the COVID-19 pandemic, said in a statement that it has introduced a cap of 100,000 passengers flying each day amid mounting chaos at airports and airlines around the world."Some airlines have taken significant action, but others have not, and we believe that further action is needed now to ensure passengers have a safe and reliable journey," Heathrow CEO John Holland-Kaye said in a statement. "We have therefore made the difficult decision to introduce a capacity cap with effect from 12 July to 11 September." Daily passenger numbers have frequently exceeded 100,000 and this has resulted in long lines, lost luggage, and flight delays and cancellations, he added.The maximum number of daily passengers which Heathrow and the airlines there can serve over the summer is 100,000, Holland-Kaye said. The number of daily outbound seats available will average 104,000 over the summer, but only 1,500 of the 4,000 daily seats have been sold to passengers so far, he said.D "We are asking our airline partners to stop selling summer tickets to limit the impact on passengers," Holland-Kaye said in the statement. He added that staff at Heathrow are putting all their effort into making sure passengers fly, "but we cannot put them at risk for their own safety and wellbeing."
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